A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

2009-01-01

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

2014-01-01

This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

2013-01-01

Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

2015-01-01

We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Zhao

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

2013-12-01

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey

2014-01-01

Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

Disruption mitigation experiment with massive gas injection of HT-7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhuang Huidong; Zhang Xiaodong

2013-01-01

Massive gas injection (MGI) is a promising method on disruption mitigation. The working principle of the fast valve for disruption mitigation was introduced. The disruption mitigation experiments by MGI on HT-7 were described. The experiment shows that the impurities radiation is improved by injecting appropriate amount of gas, and the current quench rate is slow down, so the electromagnetic load on the device is mitigated. The experiments show that the fast valve can completely satisfy the requirement of disruption mitigation on HT-7. (authors)

Fuel Flexibility: Landfill Gas Contaminant Mitigation for Power Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Storey, John Morse [ORNL; Theiss, Timothy J [ORNL; Kass, Michael D [ORNL; FINNEY, Charles E A [ORNL; Lewis, Samuel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Kaul, Brian C [ORNL; Besmann, Theodore M [ORNL; Thomas, John F [ORNL; Rogers, Hiram [ORNL; Sepaniak, Michael [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

2014-04-01

This research project focused on the mitigation of silica damage to engine-based renewable landfill gas energy systems. Characterization of the landfill gas siloxane contamination, combined with characterization of the silica deposits in engines, led to development of two new mitigation strategies. The first involved a novel method for removing the siloxanes and other heavy contaminants from the landfill gas prior to use by the engines. The second strategy sought to interrupt the formation of hard silica deposits in the engine itself, based on inspection of failed landfill gas engine parts. In addition to mitigation, the project had a third task to develop a robust sensor for siloxanes that could be used to control existing and/or future removal processes.

Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Analyze contiguous U.S. hydropower generation under various emissions scenarios. • Employ systems model that allocates water to competing uses in 2119 river basins. • Average U.S. generation increases under climate change, but falls under low flows. • Mitigation benefits are $2-$4 billion/year due to high values of carbon-free energy. - Abstract: Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and climate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydropower. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas

Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

2011-10-15

This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

2013-06-01

A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Mitigation options : flare and vent mitigation undercuts CCS in trimming CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, M.

2010-11-15

This article reported on a study aimed at reducing flaring and venting associated with conventional heavy oil production. In particular, the study analyzed parameters such as the variability in flare volumes, flare gas composition and statistical distribution of volumes flared. The objective was to determine the most viable economic solution to reducing flare and vent volumes. In particular, the study focused on various scenarios to tie-in currently flared and vented solution gas. Solution gas volume variability was found to be wide ranging, with 90 percent of sites handling less than 32 percent of the volume and 10 percent of the sites handling more than two-thirds of the volume. Composition also varied, and was difficult to measure. One scenario assumed that wells were unconnected and had to be tied in with their own compressors and pipe, while another scenario considered the wells to be individual wells. A first comprehensive analysis of flare and vent mitigation opportunities in Alberta revealed that tying in solution gas at battery sites could create emissions reductions at much lower cost than the province's carbon capture and storage (CCS) plan. The study of mitigation options primarily targeted the conventional heavy oil belt of eastern Alberta near Lloydminster. The most optimistic scenario included a $15 per tonne carbon credit, that up to 55 megatonnes could be trimmed over 10 years at no cost to the industry.1 fig.

Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

2010-07-01

Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2011-11-15

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

Greenhouse gas mitigation with scarce land

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyer-Aurich, A; Olesen, Jørgen E; Prochnow, A

2013-01-01

Agricultural lands have been identified to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions primarily by production of energy crops and substituting fossil energy resources and through carbon sequestration in soils. Increased fertilizer input resulting in increased yields may reduce the area needed for crop...

Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

2000-01-01

Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

Eco-efficiency for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation of municipal solid waste management: a case study of Tianjin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Wei; Huppes, Gjalt; van der Voet, Ester

2011-06-01

The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been highlighted in China due to the continually increasing MSW volumes being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. This article presents a quantitative eco-efficiency (E/E) analysis on MSW management in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. A methodology for E/E analysis has been proposed, with an emphasis on the consistent integration of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). The environmental and economic impacts derived from LCA and LCC have been normalized and defined as a quantitative E/E indicator. The proposed method was applied in a case study of Tianjin, China. The study assessed the current MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, to investigate trade-offs between economy and GHG emissions mitigation. Additionally, contribution analysis was conducted on both LCA and LCC to identify key issues driving environmental and economic impacts. The results show that the current Tianjin's MSW management system emits the highest GHG and costs the least, whereas the situation reverses in the integrated scenario. The key issues identified by the contribution analysis show no linear relationship between the global warming impact and the cost impact in MSW management system. The landfill gas utilization scenario is indicated as a potential optimum scenario by the proposed E/E analysis, given the characteristics of MSW, technology levels, and chosen methodologies. The E/E analysis provides an attractive direction towards sustainable waste management, though some questions with respect to uncertainty need to be discussed further. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Attempt for an Emergent Scenario with Modified Chaplygin Gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukerji, Sudeshna; Chakraborty, Subenoy; Dutta, Sourav

2016-01-01

The present work is an attempt for emergent universe scenario with modified Chaplygin gas. The universe is chosen as spatially flat FRW space-time with modified Chaplygin gas as the only cosmic substratum. It is found that emergent scenario is possible for some specific (unrealistic) choice of the parameters in the equation of state for modified Chaplygin gas.

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Amit; Bhattacharya, S.C.; Pham, H.L.

2003-01-01

The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials of number of selected Biomass Energy Technologies (BETs) have been assessed in Vietnam. These include Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) based on wood and bagasse, direct combustion plants based on wood, co-firing power plants and Stirling engine based on wood and cooking stoves. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, different scenarios were considered, namely the base case with no mitigation options, replacement of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by biogas stove, substitution of gasoline by ethanol in transport sector, replacement of coal by wood as fuel in industrial boilers, electricity generation with biomass energy technologies and an integrated scenario including all the options together. Substitution of coal stoves by biogas stove has positive abatement cost, as the cost of wood in Vietnam is higher than coal. Replacement of kerosene and LPG cookstoves by biomass stove also has a positive abatement cost. Replacement of gasoline by ethanol can be realized after a few years, as at present the cost of ethanol is more than the cost of gasoline. The replacement of coal by biomass in industrial boiler is also not an attractive option as wood is more expensive than coal in Vietnam. The substitution of fossil fuel fired plants by packages of BETs has a negative abatement cost. This option, if implemented, would result in mitigation of 10.83 million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in 2010

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

2003-01-01

In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

Disruption mitigation with high-pressure helium gas injection on EAST tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, D. L.; Shen, B.; Granetz, R. S.; Qian, J. P.; Zhuang, H. D.; Zeng, L.; Duan, Y.; Shi, T.; Wang, H.; Sun, Y.; Xiao, B. J.

2018-03-01

High pressure noble gas injection is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of disruptions in tokamaks. In this paper, results of mitigation experiments with low-Z massive gas injection (helium) on the EAST tokamak are reported. A fast valve has been developed and successfully implemented on EAST, with valve response time  ⩽150 μs, capable of injecting up to 7 × 1022 particles, corresponding to 300 times the plasma inventory. Different amounts of helium gas were injected into stable plasmas in the preliminary experiments. It is seen that a small amount of helium gas (N_He≃ N_plasma ) can not terminate a discharge, but can trigger MHD activity. Injection of 40 times the plasma inventory impurity (N_He≃ 40× N_plasma ) can effectively radiate away part of the thermal energy and make the electron density increase rapidly. The mitigation result is that the current quench time and vertical displacement can both be reduced significantly, without resulting in significantly higher loop voltage. This also reduces the risk of runaway electron generation. As the amount of injected impurity gas increases, the gas penetration time decreases slowly and asymptotes to (˜7 ms). In addition, the impurity gas jet has also been injected into VDEs, which are more challenging to mitigate that stable plasmas.

Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hoang Minh Giang

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Current household solid waste treatment practices in most cities in Vietnam caused a great amount of direct greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Available solid waste treatment technologies should be seriously taken  into consideration as a wedge of GHG mitigation in waste sector base on presently Vietnamese economic conditions. This study aim to evaluate the potential amount of GHG mitigation from current domestic solid waste treatment technologies in Vietnam including landfills and composting from various management scenarios. In oder to use Tier 2 model of IPCC 2006 for GHG estimation from landfills, an analysis on current household solid waste management system of the city was obtained by using material flow analysis approach. A case study in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam was carried out in this research. As a result, there was a reduced of over 70% of the amount of CH4 emissions and  up to 53% of total GHG saving (CO2-eq from avoiding organic waste to landfill. In addition, applying an energy recovery from LFG system to available landfills would lead to aproximately 75% of GHG saved compare to current emission of waste sector.Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16Citation: Giang, H.M.,Luong, N.D., and Huong, L.T.M.2013. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies. . Waste Technology 1(1:6-9. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the production of fluid milk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasula, Peggy M; Nutter, Darin W

2011-01-01

Global climate change, driven by the buildup of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, is challenging the dairy industries in the United States and throughout the world to develop sustainable initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. The U.S. dairy industry has committed to lowering the GHG emissions, primarily CH(4), N(2)O, and CO(2), in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain which extends from the farm, to the processing plant, and to distribution of the packaged product, where it is refrigerated by the retailer and then the consumer. This chapter provides an overview of the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique and its use in identifying the GHG emissions in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain, from cradle to grave, and the best practices and research that is currently being conducted to reduce or mitigate GHG emissions in each sector. We also discuss the use of on-farm and off-farm process simulation as tools for evaluating on-farm mitigation techniques, off-farm alternative processing scenarios, and use of alternative energy management practices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A

2012-01-01

The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N 2 O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N 2 O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges. (letter)

Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

Science.gov (United States)

Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

2014-05-01

The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

Gas powered fluid gun with recoil mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Grubelich, Mark C; Yonas, Gerold

2013-11-12

A gas powered fluid gun for propelling a stream or slug of a fluid at high velocity toward a target. Recoil mitigation is provided that reduces or eliminates the associated recoil forces, with minimal or no backwash. By launching a quantity of water in the opposite direction, net momentum forces are reduced or eliminated. Examples of recoil mitigation devices include a cone for making a conical fluid sheet, a device forming multiple impinging streams of fluid, a cavitating venturi, one or more spinning vanes, or an annular tangential entry/exit.

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

2017-12-01

Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

Gas jet disruption mitigation studies on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granetz, R.S.; Hollmann, E.M.; Whyte, D.G.; Izzo, V.A.; Antar, G.Y.; Bader, A.; Bakhtiari, M.; Biewer, T.; Boedo, J.A.; Evans, T.E.; Hutchinson, I.H.; Jernigan, T.C.; Gray, D.S.; Groth, M.; Humphreys, D.A.; Lasnier, C.J.; Moyer, R.A.; Parks, P.B.; Reinke, M.L.; Rudakov, D.L.; Strait, E.J.; Terry, J.L.; Wesley, J.; West, W.P.; Wurden, G.; Yu, J.

2007-01-01

High-pressure noble gas jet injection is a mitigation technique which potentially satisfies the requirements of fast response time and reliability, without degrading subsequent discharges. Previously reported gas jet experiments on DIII-D showed good success at reducing deleterious disruption effects. In this paper, results of recent gas jet disruption mitigation experiments on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D are reported. Jointly, these experiments have greatly improved the understanding of gas jet dynamics and the processes involved in mitigating disruption effects. In both machines, the sequence of events following gas injection is observed to be quite similar: the jet neutrals stop near the plasma edge, the edge temperature collapses and large MHD modes are quickly destabilized, mixing the hot plasma core with the edge impurity ions and radiating away the plasma thermal energy. High radiated power fractions are achieved, thus reducing the conducted heat loads to the chamber walls and divertor. A significant (2 x or more) reduction in halo current is also observed. Runaway electron generation is small or absent. These similar results in two quite different tokamaks are encouraging for the applicability of this disruption mitigation technique to ITER

MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez-López, Paula; Gasol, Carles M.; Oliver-Solà, Jordi; Huelin, Sagrario; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2013-01-01

The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions. - Highlights: • Three model stretches, representative of Spanish motorway conditions, were evaluated. • Three environmental improvement scenarios were proposed. • Speed limit seemed the easiest measure to implement in a near future. • Afforestation showed limited effectiveness per unit of land surface. • A drastic technological improvement is required to obtain significant reductions

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Y.L.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.F.

2010-01-01

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

International workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and measures: Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-12-31

More than 150 countries are now Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the global climate system. Climate change country studies are a significant step for developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet their national reporting commitments to the FCCC. These studies also provide the basis for preparation of National Climate Change Action Plans and implementation of technologies and practices which reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sinks. The broad goals of the workshop were to: (1) present results of country study mitigation assessments, (2) identify promising no-regrets greenhouse gas mitigation options in land-use and energy sectors, (3) share information on development of mitigation technologies and measures which contribute to improved National Climate Change Actions Plans, and (4) begin the process of synthesizing mitigation assessments for use by FCCC subsidiary bodies. The 59 papers are arranged into the following topical sections: (1) national mitigation assessments, technology priorities, and measures; (2) sector-specific mitigation assessment results, subdivided further into: energy sector; non-energy sector; renewable energy; energy efficiency in industry and buildings; transportation; electricity supply; forestry; and methane mitigation; (3) support for mitigation technologies and measures; and (4) activities implemented jointly. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

2014-01-01

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

2013-11-15

Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valin, H; Havlík, P; Mosnier, A; Obersteiner, M; Herrero, M; Schmid, E

2013-01-01

In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. Our results confirm that yield increase could mitigate some agriculture-related emissions growth over the next decades. Closing yield gaps by 50% for crops and 25% for livestock by 2050 would decrease agriculture and land use change emissions by 8% overall, and by 12% per calorie produced. However, the outcome is sensitive to the technological path and which factor benefits from productivity gains: sustainable land intensification would increase GHG savings by one-third when compared with a fertilizer intensive pathway. Reaching higher yield through total factor productivity gains would be more efficient on the food supply side but halve emissions savings due to a strong rebound effect on the demand side. Improvement in the crop or livestock sector would have different implications: crop yield increase would bring the largest food provision benefits, whereas livestock productivity gains would allow the greatest reductions in GHG emission. Combining productivity increases in the two sectors appears to be the most efficient way to exploit mitigation and food security co-benefits. (letter)

Assessment of alternative mitigation concepts for Hanford flammable gas tanks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stewart, C.W.; Schienbein, L.A.; Hudson, J.D.; Eschbach, E.J.; Lessor, D.L.

1994-09-01

This report provides a review and assessment of four selected mitigation concepts: pump jet mixing, sonic vibration, dilution, and heating. Though the relative levels of development of these concepts are quite different, some definite conclusions are made on their comparative feasibility. Key findings of this report are as follows. A mixer pump has proven to be a safe and effective active mitigation method in Tank 241-SY-101, and the authors are confident that mixer pumps will effectively mitigate other tanks with comparable waste configurations and properties. Low-frequency sonic vibration is also predicted to be effective for mitigation. Existing data cannot prove that dilution can mitigate gas release event (GRE) behavior. However, dilution is the only concept of the four that potentially offers passive mitigation. Like dilution, heating the waste cannot be proven with available information to mitigate GRE behavior. The designs, analyses, and data from which these conclusions are derived are presented along with recommendations.

Assessment of alternative mitigation concepts for Hanford flammable gas tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, C.W.; Schienbein, L.A.; Hudson, J.D.; Eschbach, E.J.; Lessor, D.L.

1994-09-01

This report provides a review and assessment of four selected mitigation concepts: pump jet mixing, sonic vibration, dilution, and heating. Though the relative levels of development of these concepts are quite different, some definite conclusions are made on their comparative feasibility. Key findings of this report are as follows. A mixer pump has proven to be a safe and effective active mitigation method in Tank 241-SY-101, and the authors are confident that mixer pumps will effectively mitigate other tanks with comparable waste configurations and properties. Low-frequency sonic vibration is also predicted to be effective for mitigation. Existing data cannot prove that dilution can mitigate gas release event (GRE) behavior. However, dilution is the only concept of the four that potentially offers passive mitigation. Like dilution, heating the waste cannot be proven with available information to mitigate GRE behavior. The designs, analyses, and data from which these conclusions are derived are presented along with recommendations

Wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry: Assessment, conclusions, and recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilkey, P.L.; Sundell, R.C.; Bailey, K.A.; Hayes, D.C.

1994-01-01

Wetland mitigation banks are already in existence in the United States, and the number is increasing. To date, most of these banks have been created and operated for mitigation of impacts arising from highway or commercial development and have not been associated with the oil and gas industry. Argonne National Laboratory evaluated the positive and negative aspects of wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry by examining banks already created for other uses by federal, state, and private entities. Specific issues addressed in this study include (1) the economic, ecological, and technical effectiveness of existing banks; (2) the changing nature of local, state, and federal jurisdiction; and (3) the unique regulatory and jurisdictional problems affecting bank developments associated with the oil and gas industry.

Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

2003-07-01

This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoefnagels, E.T.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313935998

2014-01-01

In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

Gas jet disruption mitigation studies on Alcator C-Mod

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granetz, R.; Whyte, D.G.; Izzo, V.A.; Biewer, T.; Reinke, M.L.; Terry, J.; Bader, A.; Bakhtiari, M.; Jernigan, T.; Wurden, G.

2006-01-01

Damaging effects of disruptions are a major concern for Alcator C-Mod, ITER and future tokamak reactors. High-pressure noble gas jet injection is a mitigation technique which potentially satisfies the operational requirements of fast response time and reliability, while still being benign to subsequent discharges. Disruption mitigation experiments using an optimized gas jet injection system are being carried out on Alcator C-Mod to study the physics of gas jet penetration into high pressure plasmas, as well as the ability of the gas jet impurities to convert plasma energy into radiation on timescales consistent with C-Mod's fast quench times, and to reduce halo currents given C-Mod's high-current density. The dependence of impurity penetration and effectiveness on noble gas species (He, Ne, Ar, Kr) is also being studied. It is found that the high-pressure neutral gas jet does not penetrate deeply into the C-Mod plasma, and yet prompt core thermal quenches are observed on all gas jet shots. 3D MHD modelling of the disruption physics with NIMROD shows that edge cooling of the plasma triggers fast growing tearing modes which rapidly produce a stochastic region in the core of the plasma and loss of thermal energy. This may explain the apparent effectiveness of the gas jet in C-Mod despite its limited penetration. The higher-Z gases (Ne, Ar, Kr) also proved effective at reducing halo currents and decreasing thermal deposition to the divertor surfaces. In addition, noble gas jet injection proved to be benign for plasma operation with C-Mod's metal (Mo) wall, actually improving the reliability of the startup in the following discharge

Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

Asia least-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategy identification and assessment of mitigation options for the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Sujata; Bhandari, Preety

1998-01-01

The focus of the presentation was on greenhouse gas mitigation options for the energy sector for India. Results from the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse gas Abatement Strategies (ALGAS) project were presented. The presentation comprised of a review of the sources of greenhouse gases, the optimisation model, ie the Markal model, used for determining the least-cost options, discussion of the results from the baseline and the abatement scenarios. The second half of the presentation focussed on a multi-criteria assessment of the abatement options using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model. The emissions of all greenhouse gases, for India, are estimated to be 986.3 Tg of carbon dioxide equivalent for 1990. The energy sector accounted for 58 percent of the total emissions and over 90 percent of the CO2 emissions. Net emissions form land use change and forestry were zero. (au)

Selection of appropriate greenhouse gas mitigation options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramanathan, R. [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India)

1999-10-01

Greenhouse gas mitigation options help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions so as to avoid the adverse environmental impacts due to global warming/climate change. They have different characteristics when evaluated using different criteria. For example, some options may be very cost effective, while some may have an additional advantage of reducing local pollution. Hence, selection of these options, for consideration by a national government or by a funding agency, has to incorporate multiple criteria. In this paper, some important criteria relevant to the selection are discussed, and a multi-criteria methodology is suggested for making appropriate selection. The methodology, called the Analytic Hierarchy Process, is described using two illustrations. (author)

Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

2012-01-01

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

2012-03-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-07-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of

Mitigation - how to buy time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunasekera, D.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: There is growing consensus in the global scientific community that human induced greenhouse gas emissions have increased the atmospheric concentration of these gases which has led, and will continue to lead to changes in regional and global climate. Climate change is projected to impact on Australian and global economic, biophysical, social and environmental systems. The impacts of climate change can be reduced by implementing a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The optimal policy response will depend on the relative costs and benefits of climate change impacts, and mitigation and adaptation responses. The focus in this presentation is to identify the key determinants that can reduce the cost of international mitigation responses. It is important to recognise that since cumulative emissions are the primary driver of atmospheric concentrations, mitigation policies should be assessed against their capacity to reduce cumulative emissions overtime, rather than at given time points only. If global greenhouse gas abatement costs are to be minimised, it is desirable that the coverage of countries, emission sources and technologies that are a part of any multilateral effort be as wide as possible. In this context the development and diffusion of clean technologies globally can play a key role in the future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, according to scenarios analysed by ABARE. Furthermore, technology 'push' (for example, research and development policies) and 'pull' (for example, emission trading) policies will be required to achieve such an outcome

Policy and tecnological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Smith, P

2007-01-01

Full Text Available A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we...

Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazioli, R.; Ricci, A.; Valentini, A.; Baratta, R.; Battaglia, A.; Conticelli, M.; Antonioli, B.; Beccarello, M.

2000-01-01

Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption [it

Greenhouse gas mitigation options for Washington State

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, N.

1996-04-01

President Clinton, in 1993, established a goal for the United States to return emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. One effort established to help meet this goal was a three part Environmental Protection Agency state grant program. Washington State completed part one of this program with the release of the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions inventory and 2010 projected inventory. This document completes part two by detailing alternative greenhouse gas mitigation options. In part three of the program EPA, working in partnership with the States, may help fund innovative greenhouse gas reduction strategies. The greenhouse gas control options analyzed in this report have a wide range of greenhouse gas reductions, costs, and implementation requirements. In order to select and implement a prudent mix of control strategies, policy makers need to have some notion of the potential change in climate, the consequences of that change and the uncertainties contained therein. By understanding the risks of climate change, policy makers can better balance the use of scarce public resources for concerns that are immediate and present against those that affect future generations. Therefore, prior to analyzing alternative greenhouse gas control measures, this report briefly describes the phenomenon and uncertainties of global climate change, and then projects the likely consequences for Washington state.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

Science.gov (United States)

Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

2018-01-01

In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector

Science.gov (United States)

Herrero, Mario; Henderson, Benjamin; Havlík, Petr; Thornton, Philip K.; Conant, Richard T.; Smith, Pete; Wirsenius, Stefan; Hristov, Alexander N.; Gerber, Pierre; Gill, Margaret; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Valin, Hugo; Garnett, Tara; Stehfest, Elke

2016-05-01

The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40-50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6-7.5 GtCO2e yr-1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment.

IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

2012-07-01

radiative forcing as e.g. described in the RCPs). Each combination of an SSP and a radiative forcing level (represented in a matrix, hence matrix approach) defines a family of macro-scale scenarios. A variety of adaptation and mitigation policies are compatible with each family of macro-scale scenarios (i.e. matrix cells). Shared climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs) define a third axis that includes information on mitigation and adaptation policies, e.g. global and sectoral coverage of greenhouse gas reduction regimes, and the aggressiveness of adaptation in different world regions. This approach facilitates investigation and comparison of different policies, something that was challenging under previous scenario frameworks. For any combination of SSP, RCP, and SPA, there will be a number of possible climate change projections that are associated with a different model of the physical climate system, adding another dimension to each cell. The resultant scenarios can be used for individual research projects and for integrated assessments of mitigation, adaptation, and residual climate impacts. (LN)

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

2017-01-01

This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

High-pressure water electrolysis: Electrochemical mitigation of product gas crossover

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schalenbach, Maximilian; Stolten, Detlef

2015-01-01

Highlights: • New technique to reduce gas crossover during water electrolysis • Increase of the efficiency of pressurized water electrolysis • Prevention of safety hazards due to explosive gas mixtures caused by crossover • Experimental realization for a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer • Discussion of electrochemical crossover mitigation for alkaline water electrolysis - Abstract: Hydrogen produced by water electrolysis can be used as an energy carrier storing electricity generated from renewables. During water electrolysis hydrogen can be evolved under pressure at isothermal conditions, enabling highly efficient compression. However, the permeation of hydrogen through the electrolyte increases with operating pressure and leads to efficiency loss and safety hazards. In this study, we report on an innovative concept, where the hydrogen crossover is electrochemically mitigated by an additional electrode between the anode and the cathode of the electrolysis cell. Experimentally, the technique was applied to a proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer operated at a hydrogen pressure that was fifty times larger than the oxygen pressure. Therewith, the hydrogen crossover was reduced and the current efficiency during partial load operation was increased. The concept is also discussed for water electrolysis that is operated at balanced pressures, where the crossover of hydrogen and oxygen is mitigated using two additional electrodes

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Qiang [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China); Shi, Minjun [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Jiang, Kejun [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

2009-06-15

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies. (author)

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiang, Liu [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)], E-mail: liuqiang@eri.org.cn; Minjun, Shi [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Kejun, Jiang [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

2009-06-15

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.

The Role of Bioenergy in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spitzer, J.

1998-01-01

Biomass can play a dual role in greenhouse gas mitigation related to the objectives of the UNFCCC, i.e. as an energy source to substitute fossil fuels and as a carbon store. However, compared to the maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs, it appears that the use of bioenergy has so far received less attenuation as a means of mitigating climate change. Modern bioenergy options offer significant, cost-effective and perpetual opportunities toward meeting emission reduction targets while providing additional ancillary benefits. Moreover, via the sustainable use of the accumulated carbon, bioenergy has the potential for resolving some of the critical issues surrounding long-term maintenance of biotic carbon stocks. < finally, wood products can act as substitutes for more energy-intensive products, can constitute carbon sinks, and can be used as biofuels at the end of their lifetime. (author)

Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

2014-01-01

to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

Real-time sensing and gas jet mitigation of VDEs on Alcator C-Mod

Science.gov (United States)

Granetz, R. S.; Wolfe, S. M.; Izzo, V. A.; Reinke, M. L.; Terry, J. L.; Hughes, J. W.; Zhurovich, K.; Whyte, D. G.; Bakhtiari, M.; Wurden, G.

2006-10-01

Experiments have been carried out in Alcator C-Mod to test the effectiveness of gas jet disruption mitigation of VDEs with real-time detection and triggering by the C-Mod digital plasma control system (DPCS). The DPCS continuously computes the error in the plasma vertical position from the magnetics diagnostics. When this error exceeds an adjustable preset value, the DPCS triggers the gas jet valve (with a negligible latency time). The high-pressure gas (argon) only takes a few milliseconds to enter the vacuum chamber and begin affecting the plasma, but this is comparable to the VDE timescale on C-Mod. Nevertheless, gas jet injection reduced the halo current, increased the radiated power fraction, and reduced the heating of the divertor compared to unmitigated disruptions, but not quite as well as in earlier mitigation experiments with vertically stable plasmas. Presumably a faster overall response time would be beneficial, and several ways to achieve this will also be discussed.

GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

2016-04-01

India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; West, J. Jason

2017-11-01

Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

Greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Beijing: The rising trend and the mitigation effects by management improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Wen

2016-04-01

Disposal of solid waste poses great challenges to city managements. Changes in solid waste composition and disposal methods, along with urbanisation, can certainly affect greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste. In this study, we analysed the changes in the generation, composition and management of municipal solid waste in Beijing. The changes of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management were thereafter calculated. The impacts of municipal solid waste management improvements on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation effects of treatment techniques of greenhouse gas were also analysed. Municipal solid waste generation in Beijing has increased, and food waste has constituted the most substantial component of municipal solid waste over the past decade. Since the first half of 1950s, greenhouse gas emission has increased from 6 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)to approximately 200 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in the early 1990s and 2145 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in 2013. Landfill gas flaring, landfill gas utilisation and energy recovery in incineration are three techniques of the after-emission treatments in municipal solid waste management. The scenario analysis showed that three techniques might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7%, 4.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In the future, if waste disposal can achieve a ratio of 4:3:3 by landfill, composting and incineration with the proposed after-emission treatments, as stipulated by the Beijing Municipal Waste Management Act, greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste will decrease by 41%. © The Author(s) 2016.

Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Holling

1998-06-01

Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

Lessons learnt from a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation potential in the Balkans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgopoulou, E.; Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; Gakis, N.; Hontou, V.; Lalas, D.P.; Steiner, D.; Tuerk, A.; Fruhmann, C.; Pucker, J.

2015-01-01

Balkan countries in the process of joining the European Union shall adopt greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and implement appropriate mitigation policies and measures. This paper presents a simplified methodological framework based on marginal abatement cost curves for estimating the technical and economic mitigation potential at sectoral level (buildings and road transport) in selected Balkan countries. The results of the analysis provide to decision makers useful information regarding the availability of background data, the potential for setting ambitious mitigation targets, and detailed tools for assisting the selection of policies and measures to meet these targets. The analysis performed shows that a significant part of the greenhouse gas emissions abatement potential can be achieved through win–win measures. The incorporation of environmental externalities associated with these interventions, estimated through benefits transfer, further improves the economic performance of these measures, especially in the buildings sector. Moreover, the implementation of these measures is shown to result in positive macroeconomic effects through increases in GDP (gross domestic product) and creation of new jobs. Finally, the rebound effect may restrict the estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions in the buildings of the countries examined due to the low energy performance of the existing building stock. - Highlights: • Analysis of the technical and economic GHG mitigation potential in western Balkans. • Marginal abatement cost curves highlight several win–win interventions. • Incorporation of environmental benefits improves the performance of measures. • Mitigation measures result in significant positive macroeconomic effects. • The investment costs and the rebound effect may influence measures' effectiveness.

Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

1996-07-01

Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries F.; Pfluger, Benjamin; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Girod, Bastien; Ruijven, Bas J. van

2013-01-01

Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO 2 -equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers. - Highlights: ► We model the effects of 15 climate change mitigation measures in Europe. ► We assess the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential in different sectors. ► The measures could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% below 1990 levels in 2050. ► The approach allows to explore arguably more relevant climate policy scenarios

Greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and marine transportation : mitigation potential and policies

Science.gov (United States)

2009-12-01

This paper provides an overview of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions : from aviation and marine transportation and the various mitigation options to reduce these emissions. Reducing global emissions by 50 to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050reduct...

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

2011-01-01

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

2014-01-01

The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

Utilization and mitigation of VAM/CMM emissions by a catalytic combustion gas turbine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanaka, K.; Yoshino, Y.; Kashihara, H. [Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., Hyougo (Japan); Kajita, S.

2013-07-01

A system configured with a catalytic combustion gas turbine generator unit is introduced. The system has been developed using technologies produced by Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., such as small gas turbines, recuperators and catalytic combustors, and catalytic oxidation units which use exhaust heat from gas turbines. The system combusts (oxidizes) ventilation air methane (less than 1% concentration) and low concentration coal mine methane (30% concentration or less) discharged as waste from coal mines. Thus, it cannot only reduce the consumption of high- quality fuel for power generation, but also mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Hong-Mei; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Liu, Li-Jing; Diaz Anadon, Laura

2017-12-01

The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy security, technological spillovers and innovation, and food security. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity

Microbial methane oxidation processes and technologies for mitigation of landfill gas emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter; Bogner, J.E.

2009-01-01

Landfill gas containing methane is produced by anaerobic degradation of organic waste. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and landfills are one of the major anthropogenic sources of atmospheric methane. Landfill methane may be oxidized by methanotrophic microorganisms in soils or waste materials...... to predict methane emissions from landfills. Additional research and technology development is needed before methane mitigation technologies utilizing microbial methane oxidation processes can become commercially viable and widely deployed....

The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

Science.gov (United States)

Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davoudpour, Hamid; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

2006-01-01

Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO 2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO 2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makundi, Willy R.L. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (United States)

1998-10-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs.

Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makundi, Willy R.

1998-01-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries.; copyrighted ; Y

Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makundi, Willy R.L.

1998-01-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs

Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

1996-12-31

The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilliestam, Johan

2014-01-01

The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets. - Highlights: • A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation. • Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks. • Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports. • Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker. • The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyun Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

2017-12-01

India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

OpenAIRE

Prof Anil Markandya, PhD; Jon Sampedro, MSc; Steven J Smith, PhD; Rita Van Dingenen, PhD; Cristina Pizarro-Irizar, PhD; Prof Iñaki Arto, PhD; Prof Mikel González-Eguino, PhD

2018-01-01

Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which ...

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

Science.gov (United States)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eknes, Monika Loeland

1996-12-31

This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

2017-12-31

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear power for greenhouse gas mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.-H.

2000-11-01

The possibility of global climate change resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is a major global concern. At the Third Conference of the Parties (CoP 3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held at Kyoto, in December 1997, industrialized countries agreed to accept binding commitments that would reduce their collective GHG emissions, in the 2008-2012 commitment period, by at least 5% below 1990 levels. These countries also agreed to make demonstrable progress towards reducing GHG emissions by 2005. Because climate change is a global problem, i.e. it does not matter where on the globe GHGs are emitted - they all end up in the same atmosphere, many market economists maintain that mitigation should first occur wherever it is cheapest. Thus Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol makes provisions by which whose signatories who are required to limit emissions can gain credit for financing cost-effective mitigation projects in developing countries, while at the same time promoting sustainable development through the provision of financial and technical assistance. This option is known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM could be of particular interest to developing countries, which are not subject to emission limitations in the Kyoto Protocol. For example, the use of capital-intensive nuclear power instead of less costly coal-fired electricity generation would result in a significant reduction in GHG emissions. Because many developing countries may not be able to afford the higher investments associated with a nuclear power project, or because nuclear may simply not be the least-cost generation option for a given country, CDM offers an opportunity for (incremental) capital and technology transfer sponsored by countries of the CoP 3 in exchange for GHG emission credits. The benefit to the sponsor would be compliance with the emission limits set out in the Protocol, at a lower cost than if

¨ A Dilemma of Abundance: Governance Challenges of Reconciling Shale Gas Development and Climate Change Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karena Shaw

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Shale gas proponents argue this unconventional fossil fuel offers a “bridge” towards a cleaner energy system by offsetting higher-carbon fuels such as coal. The technical feasibility of reconciling shale gas development with climate action remains contested. However, we here argue that governance challenges are both more pressing and more profound. Reconciling shale gas and climate action requires institutions capable of responding effectively to uncertainty; intervening to mandate emissions reductions and internalize costs to industry; and managing the energy system strategically towards a lower carbon future. Such policy measures prove challenging, particularly in jurisdictions that stand to benefit economically from unconventional fuels. We illustrate this dilemma through a case study of shale gas development in British Columbia, Canada, a global leader on climate policy that is nonetheless struggling to manage gas development for mitigation. The BC case is indicative of the constraints jurisdictions face both to reconcile gas development and climate action, and to manage the industry adequately to achieve social licence and minimize resistance. More broadly, the case attests to the magnitude of change required to transform our energy systems to mitigate climate change.

The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation i...

Fugitive emission inventory from Brazilian oil and gas industry (2000-2005) and discussion of mitigation measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carloni, Flavia A.; D' Avignon, Alexandre; La Rovere, Emilio L. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Centro Clima

2008-07-01

The objective of this work is to evaluate current emissions of GHGs within the Brazilian oil and gas industry, specifically the fugitive emissions arising from exploration and production. Besides, projects for mitigating these emissions and opportunities for the national industry are investigated. Results show that N{sub 2}O contributes little to fugitive emissions from the oil and gas industry, principally from gas sector. NMVOC emissions are significant, principally from the oil sector. In relation to CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} emissions, the oil sector emits more CO{sub 2} while the gas sector contributes more to CH{sub 4} emissions. In both sectors flaring is the activity that emits most CO{sub 2}. In relation to CH{sub 4} the principal contribution to emissions are from exploration and production onshore, although offshore activities as a whole play a greater part in the national industry. The results make it clear that the use of gas from flaring activity is a great opportunity for emission mitigation projects. From a business point of view, methane emissions could mean lost opportunities in selling natural gas. The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, as the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation actions, provide the opportunity to stimulate investments in projects for reducing flaring and venting of associated gas. (author)

Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuqiang; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Smith, Steven J.; West, J. Jason

2016-08-01

Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m^-3) than the west (0–0.4 µg m^-3) for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), with an average of 0.47 µg m^-3 over the US; for O₃, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM_2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O₃ (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O₃ reduction

Formulation and evaluation of gas release scenarios for the silo in Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsson, J.; Moreno, L.

1992-01-01

The Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR) has been in operation since 1988 and is located in the crystalline rock, 60 m below the Baltic Sea. In the licensing procedure for the SFR the safety assessment has been complemented with a detailed scenario analysis of the performance of the repository. The scenarios include the influence on radionuclide release by gas formation and gas transport processes in the silo. The overall conclusion is that the release of most radionuclides from the silo is only marginally affected by the formation and release of gas, even for scenarios considering unexpected events. The largest effects were found for short-lived radionuclides and radionuclides that have no or low sorption ability. Except for very extreme scenarios for the silo the overall impact from repository on the environment is by far dominated by the release of radionuclides from the rock vaults. 10 refs., 6 figs

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeger, P.G.

1988-01-01

Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

2015-01-01

Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Fadel, M.; Zeinati, M.; Ghaddar, N.; Mezher, T.

2001-01-01

Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon, being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly, an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29% to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17%, respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical, economic, environmental, and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose, theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (author)

The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

Net climate change mitigation of the Clean Development Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, Peter; Lazarus, Michael; Spalding-Fecher, Randall

2014-01-01

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has allowed industrialized countries to buy credits from developing countries for the purpose of meeting targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In principle, the CDM simply shifts the location of emission reductions, with no net mitigation impact. Departing from this zero-sum calculus, the Cancun Agreements reached at the sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2010 called for “one or more market-based mechanisms” capable of “ensuring a net decrease and/or avoidance of global greenhouse gas emissions”, an intention reiterated at COP 17 and COP 18. This article explores the extent to which the CDM may or may not already lead to such a “net decrease.” It finds that the CDM's net mitigation impact likely hinges on the additionality of large-scale power projects, which are expected to generate the majority of CDM credits going forward. If these projects are truly additional and continue to operate well beyond the credit issuance period, they will decrease global greenhouse gas emissions. However, if they are mostly non-additional, as research suggests, they could increase global greenhouse gas emissions. The article closes with a discussion of possible means to increase mitigation benefit. - Highlights: • The CDM's method for assessing additionality remains controversial and contested. • We develop two scenarios of the net emissions impact of the CDM. • The integrity of the CDM hinges on the emissions impact of power supply projects. • Additionality is hard to demonstrate with confidence for most power-supply projects. • A number of options are available to increase the mitigation benefit of the CDM

Progress toward mitigation of flammable gas Tank 241-SY-101

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lentsch, J.W.; Babad, H.; Hanson, C.E.; Kirch, N.W.

1994-01-01

The mixing pump installed in Hanford Site tank 241-SY-101 has been shown to be effective in releasing flammable gases in a controlled manner. This controlled release of gas prevents the accumulation and episodic release above flammable limits. More work needs to be done to optimize the pumping operation, and to evaluate the long-term effects of mixing so as to assure that no undesirable changes have occurred to the waste. Other alternative mitigation concepts are still being evaluated as a backup to mixing

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia

OpenAIRE

Aleluia Reis, Lara; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David

2016-01-01

Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2êC) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GD...

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Cuenot

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

Evaluation of mitigation strategies in Facility Group 1 double-shell flammable-gas tanks at the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unal, C.; Sadasivan, P.; Kubic, W.L.; White, J.R.

1997-11-01

Radioactive nuclear waste at the Hanford Site is stored in underground waste storage tanks at the site. The tanks fall into two main categories: single-shell tanks (SSTs) and double-shell tanks (DSTs). There are a total of 149 SSTs and 28 DSTs. The wastes stored in the tanks are chemically complex. They basically involve various sodium salts (mainly nitrite, nitrate, carbonates, aluminates, and hydroxides), organic compounds, heavy metals, and various radionuclides, including cesium, strontium, plutonium, and uranium. The waste is known to generate flammable gas (FG) [hydrogen, ammonia, nitrous oxide, hydrocarbons] by complex chemical reactions. The process of gas generation, retention, and release is transient. Some tanks reach a quasi-steady stage where gas generation is balanced by the release rate. Other tanks show continuous cycles of retention followed by episodic release. There currently are 25 tanks on the Flammable Gas Watch List (FGWL). The objective of this report is to evaluate possible mitigation strategies to eliminate the FG hazard. The evaluation is an engineering study of mitigation concepts for FG generation, retention, and release behavior in Tanks SY-101, AN-103, AN 104, An-105, and Aw-101. Where possible, limited quantification of the effects of mitigation strategies on the FG hazard also is considered. The results obtained from quantification efforts discussed in this report should be considered as best-estimate values. Results and conclusions of this work are intended to help in establishing methodologies in the contractor's controls selection analysis to develop necessary safety controls for closing the FG unreviewed safety question. The general performance requirements of any mitigation scheme are discussed first

All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, Philipp M.; Holz, Franziska

2015-01-01

The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states. - Highlights: • We analyze disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe. • Most EU countries are only weakly affected by a complete Russian supply disruption. • We find that Eastern Europe is vulnerable to Russian supply disruptions. • We identify infrastructure bottlenecks in the European natural gas network. • We find that the large EU LNG import capacity is not sufficiently connected

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Rural Household Biogas Systems in China: A Life Cycle Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Hou

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Rural household biogas (RHB systems are at a crossroads in China, yet there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of their energy and climate (greenhouse gas mitigation efficiency under typical operating conditions. We combined data from monitoring projects and questionnaire surveys across hundreds of households from two typical Chinese villages within a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA framework to assess net GHG (greenhouse gas mitigation by RHB systems operated in different contexts. We modelled biogas production, measured biogas losses and used survey data from biogas and non-biogas households to derive empirical RHB system substitution rates for energy and fertilizers. Our results indicate that poorly designed and operated RHB systems in northern regions of China may in fact increase farm household GHG emissions by an average of 2668 kg CO2-eq· year−1, compared with a net mitigation effect of 6336 kg CO2-eq per household and year in southern regions. Manure treatment (104 and 8513 kg CO2-eq mitigation and biogas leakage (-533 and -2489 kg CO2-eq emission are the two most important factors affecting net GHG mitigation by RHB systems in northern and southern China, respectively. In contrast, construction (−173 and −305 kg CO2-eq emission, energy substitution (−522 emission and 653 kg·CO2-eq mitigation and nutrient substitution (−1544 and −37 kg CO2-eq emission made small contributions across the studied systems. In fact, survey data indicated that biogas households had higher energy and fertilizer use, implying no net substitution effect. Low biogas yields in the cold northern climate and poor maintenance services were cited as major reasons for RHB abandonment by farmers. We conclude that the design and management of RHB systems needs to be revised and better adapted to local climate (e.g., digester insulation and household energy demand (biogas storage and micro power generators to avoid discharge of unburned biogas

Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

2008-01-01

Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Martin T.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Clapp, Christa S.

2009-01-01

The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.

Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Comendant I.

2010-04-01

Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

1996-12-31

An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puig, Daniel

This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Shunsuke

2012-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

Long-run implications for developing countries of joint implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, A.; Bulte, E.; Folmer, H.

1999-01-01

Joint Implementation (JI) calls for cooperation between industrialized and developing countries in the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a major concern of potential host countries is that if they utilize their low-cost options for JI now, they will be left with only high cost options in the future, thereby penalizing them at a time when they may be obligated to mitigate GHGs themselves. This paper formalizes this hypothesis by utilizing an optimal control framework analogous to the Hotelling model of non-renewable resource extraction. The results are that cumulative abatement effects can impose costs on the future, but that they can be offset by technological change, market power, or compensation. 11 refs

Cities' Role in Mitigating United States Food System Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohareb, Eugene A; Heller, Martin C; Guthrie, Peter M

2018-05-15

Current trends of urbanization, population growth, and economic development have made cities a focal point for mitigating global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The substantial contribution of food consumption to climate change necessitates urban action to reduce the carbon intensity of the food system. While food system GHG mitigation strategies often focus on production, we argue that urban influence dominates this sector's emissions and that consumers in cities must be the primary drivers of mitigation. We quantify life cycle GHG emissions of the United States food system through data collected from literature and government sources producing an estimated total of 3800 kg CO 2 e/capita in 2010, with cities directly influencing approximately two-thirds of food sector GHG emissions. We then assess the potential for cities to reduce emissions through selected measures; examples include up-scaling urban agriculture and home delivery of grocery options, which each may achieve emissions reductions on the order of 0.4 and ∼1% of this total, respectively. Meanwhile, changes in waste management practices and reduction of postdistribution food waste by 50% reduce total food sector emissions by 5 and 11%, respectively. Consideration of the scale of benefits achievable through policy goals can enable cities to formulate strategies that will assist in achieving deep long-term GHG emissions targets.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

1996-12-31

This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

Operational experience in mitigating flammable gas releases from Hanford Site Tank 241-SY-101

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lentsch, J.W.; Babad, H.; Kirch, N.W.

1995-01-01

Flammable gases consisting of hydrogen, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and methane are periodically released from Hanford Site waste tank 241-SY-101 at concentrations above the flammable limit. A large mixer pump installed in the tank in 1993 has effectively mitigated this problem by continuously releasing small amounts of the flammable gases at the rate they are generated. Tank 241-SY-101 is also equipped with multiple high-sensitivity gas monitoring systems and level detection systems to measure the quantity of gas that is retained in and released from the waste

Scenarios of high greenhouse gas emission reduction in transports and buildings by 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teissier, O.; Meunier, L.

2008-01-01

The authors report simulations of different environmental policy measures concerning transports and buildings in France. First, they review measures which may entail a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and comment their emission reduction potential and their implementation costs. These measures are then ranked, and only those presenting a significant potential and an economically and technologically feasibility are finally considered. Their impact is then simulated by using different models which are adapted to the both sectors and to time ranges. The obtained results are compared to those obtained with a calibrated trend scenario and with a 'factor 4' scenario

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

Science.gov (United States)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, N.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lasnier, C. J.; Moyer, R. A.; Parks, P. B.; Shiraki, D.

2015-10-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollmann, E. M.; Moyer, R. A.; Commaux, N.; Shiraki, D.; Eidietis, N. W.; Parks, P. B.; Lasnier, C. J.

2015-01-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect

Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

2015-12-01

Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Science.gov (United States)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Engström

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

The role of nuclear energy in mitigating greenhouse warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.

1997-01-01

A behavioral, top-down, forced-equilibrium market model of long-term (∼ 2,100) global energy-economics interactions has been modified with a bottom-up nuclear energy model and used to construct consistent scenarios describing future impacts of civil nuclear materials flows in an expanding, multi-regional (13) world economy. The relative measures and tradeoffs between economic (GNP, tax impacts, productivity, etc.), environmental (greenhouse gas accumulations, waste accumulation, proliferation risk), and energy (resources, energy mixes, supply-side versus demand-side attributes) interactions that emerge from these analyses are focused herein on advancing understanding of the role that nuclear energy (and other non-carbon energy sources) might play in mitigating greenhouse warming. Two ostensibly opposing scenario drivers are investigated: (a) demand-side improvements in (non-price-induced) autonomous energy efficiency improvements; and (b) supply-side carbon-tax inducements to shift energy mixes towards reduced- or non-carbon forms. In terms of stemming greenhouse warming for minimal cost of greenhouse-gas abatement, and with the limitations of the simplified taxing schedule used, a symbiotic combination of these two approaches may offer advantages not found if each is applied separately

The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

2012-03-01

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

Fuel demand projections and comparison of CO2 mitigation scenarios for Brazil until 2035; Projecoes de demanda de combustiveis e comparacao entre cenarios de mitigacao das emissoes de CO2 para o Brasil ate 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ribas, Rodrigo Pacheco; Araujo, Maria Silvia Muylaert de; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio Vasconcelo de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Silva, Neilton Fidelis da; Campos, Antonio F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil); Campos, Christiano Pires de; Gutierres, Ricardo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento; Lampreia, Joao [Agencia Internacional de Energia (IEA), Paris (France)

2012-07-01

This article results from work undertaken by the technical cooperation between the Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center of PETROBRAS (CENPES/PETROBRAS) and the International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG/Coppe/UFRJ), evaluates how the Oil Sector and the fuels demand (petroleum and natural gas) from Brazil will be impacted in the short, medium and long term for current climate change mitigation policies, as for possible proposals to the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012). Thus, emission scenarios were developed by 2035 as among the main greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), considering data from the World Energy Outlook 2010 / International Energy Agency (IEA), the Second National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) and the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE), from the Energy Research Company (EPE) / Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). (author)

Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

2014-01-01

Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry

2013-01-01

Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lise, Wietze [Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy Group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); IBS Research and Consultancy, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir 34433, Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Van Oostvoorn, Frits [Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy Group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-06-15

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority. (author)

Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Van Oostvoorn, Frits

2008-01-01

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority. (author)

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2013-01-01

The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

Development of realtime disaster mitigation system for urban gas supply network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimizu, Y.; Koganemaru, K.; Nakayama, W. [Technology Research Inst., Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Yamazaki, F. [Chiba University, Chiba (Japan); Isoyama, R.; Ishida, E. [Japan Engineering Consultants Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

2004-07-01

In response to the Kobe earthquake in 1995, efforts were initiated to develop a real-time system to mitigate earthquake-induced damages in gas supply networks which aimed at collecting information quickly and, if necessary, carrying out emergency measures. A new compact seismograph was recently developed, entitled New SI Sensor (SI). This device houses an electronic circuit which determines the SI value more precisely, detects the onset of liquefaction, and transmits the whole time history of seismic acceleration to head quarters. Consequently, a new safety system called SUPer-dense REaltime Monitoring of Earthquake (SUPREME) was developed which makes use of 3,800 new SI sensors. This paper introduces the structure of this new system. The remote shut-off using SUPREME results in quick gas supply shut-off and effectively reduce the risk of gas leakage during earthquakes. With enhanced use of geographic information systems, SUPREME can also conduct damage assessment for gas pipelines. To estimate the distribution of SI values and liquefied depth more precisely, digital map, geological map, topographical map and borehole logging data of about 60,000 sites were collected and compiled. Site amplification factors for SI values were estimated at the boring points. Then, spatial distribution of the site amplification factor was estimated based on weighted average of the amplification factors of surrounding boring points and the geological and topographical maps. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs.

Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Chang H., E-mail: Chang.Oh@inl.gov [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3870 (United States); Kim, Eung Soo [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, 559 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2012-09-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Study of the radiated energy loss during massive gas injection mitigated disruptions on EAST

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Y. M.; Hao, Z. K.; Hu, L. Q.; Wang, L.; Xu, P.; Xu, L. Q.; Zhuang, H. D.; EAST Team

2015-08-01

The MGI mitigated disruption experiments were carried out on EAST with a new fast gas controlling valve in 2012. Different amounts of noble gas He or mixed gas of 99% He + 1% Ar are injected into plasma in current flat-top phase and current ramp-down phase separately. The initial results of MGI experiments are described. The MGI system and the radiation measurement system are briefly introduced. The characteristics of radiation distribution and radiation energy loss are analyzed. About 50% of the stored thermal energy Wdia is dissipated by radiation during the entire disruption process and the impurities of C and Li from the PFC play important roles to radiative energy loss. The amount of the gas can affect the pre-TQ phase. Strong poloidal asymmetry of radiation begins to appear in the CQ phase, which is possibly caused by the plasma configuration changes as a result of VDE. No toroidal radiation asymmetry is observed presently.

Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

2010-07-01

For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

Inventory and Policy Reduction Potential of Greenhouse Gas and Pollutant Emissions of Road Transportation Industry in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, emissions from the road transportation industry in China have been increasing rapidly. To evaluate the reduction potential of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions of the industry in China, its emission inventory was calculated and scenario analysis was created for the period between 2012 and 2030 in this paper. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP model, the development of China’s road transportation industry in two scenarios (the business-as-usual (BAU scenario and the comprehensive-mitigation (CM scenario was simulated. In the Comprehensive Mitigation scenario, there are nine various measures which include Fuel Economy Standards, Auto Emission Standards, Energy-saving Technology, Tax Policy, Eco-driving, Logistics Informatization, Vehicle Liquidation, Electric Vehicles, and Alternative Fuels. The cumulative energy and emission reductions of these specific measures were evaluated. Our results demonstrate that China’s road transportation produced 881 million metric tons of CO2 and emitted 1420 thousand tons of CO, 2150 thousand tons of NOx, 148 thousand tons of PM10, and 745 thousand tons of HC in 2012. The reduction potential is quite large, and road freight transportation is the key mitigation subsector, accounting for 85%–92% of the total emission. For energy conservation and carbon emission mitigation, logistics informatization is the most effective method, potentially reducing 1.80 billion tons of coal equivalent and 3.83 billion tons of CO2 from 2012 to 2030. In terms of air pollutant emission mitigation, the auto emission standards measure performs best with respect to NOx, PM10, and HC emission mitigation, and logistic informatization measure is the best in CO emission reduction. In order to maximize the mitigation potential of China’s road transportation industry, the government needs to implement various measures in a timely and strict fashion.

The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

2015-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

Benefits on public health from transport-related greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Southeastern European cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarigiannis, D A; Kontoroupis, P; Nikolaki, S; Gotti, A; Chapizanis, D; Karakitsios, S

2017-02-01

Climate change is a major environmental threat of our time. Cities have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions as most of the traffic, industry, commerce and more than 50% of world population is situated in urban areas. Southern Europe is a region that faces financial turmoil, enhanced migratory fluxes and climate change pressure. The case study of Thessaloniki is presented, one of the only two cities in Greece with established climate change action plans. The effects of feasible traffic policies in year 2020 are assessed and their potential health impact is compared to a business as usual scenario. Two types of measures are investigated: operation of underground rail in the city centre and changes in fleet composition. Potential co-benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions on public health by the year 2020 are computed utilizing state-of-the-art concentration response functions for PM x , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 . Results show significant environmental health and monetary co-benefits when the city metro is coupled with appropriate changes in the traffic composition. Monetary savings due to avoided mortality or leukaemia incidence corresponding to the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5, NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure will be 56.6, 45, 37.7 and 1.0 million Euros respectively. Promotion of 'green' transportation in the city (i.e. the wide use of electric vehicles), will provide monetary savings from the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure up to 60.4, 49.1, 41.2 and 1.08 million Euros. Overall, it was shown that the respective GHG emission reduction policies resulted in clear co-benefits in terms of air quality improvement, public health protection and monetary loss mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann

2018-01-01

Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation...... only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (p

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Optimal scenario balance of reduction in costs and greenhouse gas emissions for municipal solid waste management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

邓娜; 张强; 陈广武; 齐长青; 崔文谦; 张于峰; 马洪亭

2015-01-01

To reduce carbon intensity, an improved management method balancing the reduction in costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required for Tianjin’s waste management system. Firstly, six objective functions, namely, cost minimization, GHG minimization, eco-efficiency minimization, cost maximization, GHG maximization and eco-efficiency maximization, are built and subjected to the same constraints with each objective function corresponding to one scenario. Secondly, GHG emissions and costs are derived from the waste flow of each scenario. Thirdly, the range of GHG emissions and costs of other potential scenarios are obtained and plotted through adjusting waste flow with infinitely possible step sizes according to the correlation among the above six scenarios. And the optimal scenario is determined based on this range. The results suggest the following conclusions. 1) The scenarios located on the border between scenario cost minimization and GHG minimization create an optimum curve, and scenario GHG minimization has the smallest eco-efficiency on the curve;2) Simple pursuit of eco-efficiency minimization using fractional programming may be unreasonable; 3) Balancing GHG emissions from incineration and landfills benefits Tianjin’s waste management system as it reduces GHG emissions and costs.

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Fuel carbon intensity standards may not mitigate climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plevin, Richard J.; Delucchi, Mark A.; O’Hare, Michael

2017-01-01

To mitigate the climate change effects of transportation, the US states of California and Oregon, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and the European Union have implemented regulations to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of transport fuel, commonly referred to as 'carbon intensity', or CI. In this article, we unpack the theory and practice of fuel CI standards, examining claims regarding climate-change mitigation. We show that these standards do not reliably mitigate climate change because estimates of GHG reductions rely primarily on models that are not designed to estimate changes in emissions and climate impacts. Some regulations incorporate models that estimate a subset of changes in emissions, but the models must project changes in global markets over decades, and there is little agreement about the best model structure or parameter values. Since multiple models and projections may be equally plausible, fuel CI is inevitably subjective and unverifiable. We conclude that regulating or taxing observable emissions would more reliably achieve emission reduction. - Highlights: • Use of fuel carbon intensity (CI) standards has been expanding recently. • Fuel CI ratings are subjective, scenario- and model-dependent. • Uncertainty in fuel CI ratings creates uncertainty in policy outcomes. • There is no reliable test of whether fuel CI standards mitigate climate change. • Regulating or taxing observable emissions would be a more reliable approach.

Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prošek, Andrej; Volkanovski, Andrija

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prošek, Andrej, E-mail: andrej.prosek@ijs.si; Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: andrija.volkanovski@ijs.si

2015-12-15

Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

1998-12-31

Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eory, Vera; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Moran, Dominic

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ► We incorporated the co-effects on NH 3 , NO 3 − , P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ► Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ► Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ► Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

Implementing the EMF 9 gas trade scenarios and interpreting the results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowse, J.

1989-01-01

Detailed description of the model employed appears in Rowse (1986) and the Appendix of Rowse (1987). Only the salient features are discussed here, along with the modifications carried out for the EMF scenarios and certain specific data and assumptions important for understanding the empirical results. The nonlinear programming model has seven Canadian regions, pipeline links to three US regions, twenty-five three-year time periods representing 1986-2060, and perfect foresight in allocating gas to domestic and export regions. It determines equilibrium Canadian consumption levels, Canadian supplies and exports to the US over this time frame by solving for equilibrium prices. Figure 1 indicates the regional breakdown employed, with the principal supply regions lying in Western Canada. Ontario is the principal consuming region in Canada. Prospective supplies and their locations are also indicated in Figure 1. All producing provinces of Western Canada have existing and prospective conventional supplies of gas, while prospective nonconventional supplies are confied to Alberta. Nonconventional or Deep Basin supplies are assumed available only by the mid-1990's at the earliest because they have not previously been commercially produced. Prospective supplies are also assumed available from the Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea area - henceforth simply Delta - but only by the mid-1990's as well due to the lead time necessary for pipeline construction and for industry confidence in the financial viability of megaprojects to recover. Delta gas is shown as a prospective Alberta source because, if developed, it will likely be pipelined south to connect with the existing transportation network in Alberta. Both nonconventional gas and Delta gas are more costly than future conventional gas supplies but the latter can only be introduced gradually over time because of constraints on gas finding rates and expansion of the domestic drilling rig fleet

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Rice management interventions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Saddam; Peng, Shaobing; Fahad, Shah; Khaliq, Abdul; Huang, Jianliang; Cui, Kehui; Nie, Lixiao

2015-03-01

Global warming is one of the gravest threats to crop production and environmental sustainability. Rice, the staple food of more than half of the world's population, is the most prominent cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture and gives way to global warming. The increasing demand for rice in the future has deployed tremendous concerns to reduce GHG emissions for minimizing the negative environmental impacts of rice cultivation. In this review, we presented a contemporary synthesis of existing data on how crop management practices influence emissions of GHGs in rice fields. We realized that modifications in traditional crop management regimes possess a huge potential to overcome GHG emissions. We examined and evaluated the different possible options and found that modifying tillage permutations and irrigation patterns, managing organic and fertilizer inputs, selecting suitable cultivar, and cropping regime can mitigate GHG emissions. Previously, many authors have discussed the feasibility principle and the influence of these practices on a single gas or, in particular, in the whole agricultural sector. Nonetheless, changes in management practices may influence more than one gas at the same time by different mechanisms or sometimes their effects may be antagonistic. Therefore, in the present attempt, we estimated the overall global warming potential of each approach to consider the magnitude of its effects on all gases and provided a comprehensive assessment of suitable crop management practices for reducing GHG emissions in rice culture.

Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thepkhun, Panida; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Shrestha, Ram M.

2013-01-01

Climate change and CO 2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

Planning regional energy system in association with greenhouse gas mitigation under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H. [Research Academy of Energy and Environmental Studies, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Chen, X. [Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011 (China)

2011-03-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are expected to continue to rise due to the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels and ever-boosting demand for energy. This leads to inevitable conflict between satisfying increasing energy demand and reducing GHG emissions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic optimization model (IFOM) is developed for planning energy systems in association with GHG mitigation. Multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, fuzzy-intervals and their combinations are allowed to be incorporated within the framework of IFOM. The developed method is then applied to a case study of long-term planning of a regional energy system, where integer programming (IP) technique is introduced into the IFOM to facilitate dynamic analysis for capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multistage context to satisfy increasing energy demand. Solutions related fuzzy and probability information are obtained and can be used for generating decision alternatives. The results can not only provide optimal energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans, but also help decision-makers identify desired policies for GHG mitigation with a cost-effective manner. (author)

Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

2018-04-01

Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

Development of AIM for analysing policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, M.; Morita, T.; Matsuoka, Y.

1999-01-01

AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them. Two socio-economic scenarios were assumed and CO 2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions. It is found that mitigating CO 2 emissions without scaling back productive activities or standards of living in Japan is possible. However, if one relies on the market mechanism alone, it cannot be done. The analysis has shown that it is essential to introduce new policies and measures such as carbon tax and subsidies. (author)

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2015-04-01

Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

Plasma profile evolution during disruption mitigation via massive gas injection on MAST

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, A. J.; Gibson, K. J.; Chapman, I. T.; Harrison, J. R.; Kirk, A.; Lisgo, S. W.; Lehnen, M.; Martin, R.; Scannell, R.; Cullen, A.; the MAST Team

2012-06-01

Massive gas injection (MGI) is one means of ameliorating disruptions in future devices such as ITER, where the stored energy in the plasma is an order of magnitude larger than in present-day devices. The penetration of the injected impurities during MGI in MAST is diagnosed using a combination of high-speed (20 kHz) visible imaging and high spatial (1 cm) and temporal (0.1 ms) resolution Thomson scattering (TS) measurements of the plasma temperature and density. It is seen that the rational surfaces, in particular q = 2, are the critical surfaces for disruption mitigation. The TS data shows the build-up of density on rational surfaces in the edge cooling period of the mitigation, leading to the collapse of the plasma in a thermal quench. The TS data are confirmed by the visible imaging, which shows filamentary structures present at the start of the thermal quench. The filamentary structures have a topology which matches that of a q = 2 field line in MAST, suggesting that they are located on the q = 2 surface. Linearized magnetohydrodynamic stability analysis using the TS profiles suggests that the large density build-up on the rational surfaces drives modes within the plasma which lead to the thermal quench. The presence of such modes is seen experimentally in the form of magnetic fluctuations on Mirnov coils and the growth of an n = 1 toroidal mode in the period prior to the thermal quench. These results support the observations of other machines that the 2/1 mode is the likely trigger for the thermal quench in a mitigated disruption and suggests that the mitigation process in spherical tokamaks is similar to that in conventional aspect ratio devices.

Plasma profile evolution during disruption mitigation via massive gas injection on MAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornton, A.J.; Chapman, I.T.; Harrison, J.R.; Kirk, A.; Martin, R.; Scannell, R.; Cullen, A.; Gibson, K.J.; Lisgo, S.W.; Lehnen, M.

2012-01-01

Massive gas injection (MGI) is one means of ameliorating disruptions in future devices such as ITER, where the stored energy in the plasma is an order of magnitude larger than in present-day devices. The penetration of the injected impurities during MGI in MAST is diagnosed using a combination of high-speed (20 kHz) visible imaging and high spatial (1 cm) and temporal (0.1 ms) resolution Thomson scattering (TS) measurements of the plasma temperature and density. It is seen that the rational surfaces, in particular q = 2, are the critical surfaces for disruption mitigation. The TS data shows the build-up of density on rational surfaces in the edge cooling period of the mitigation, leading to the collapse of the plasma in a thermal quench. The TS data are confirmed by the visible imaging, which shows filamentary structures present at the start of the thermal quench. The filamentary structures have a topology which matches that of a q = 2 field line in MAST, suggesting that they are located on the q = 2 surface. Linearized magnetohydrodynamic stability analysis using the TS profiles suggests that the large density build-up on the rational surfaces drives modes within the plasma which lead to the thermal quench. The presence of such modes is seen experimentally in the form of magnetic fluctuations on Mirnov coils and the growth of an n = 1 toroidal mode in the period prior to the thermal quench. These results support the observations of other machines that the 2/1 mode is the likely trigger for the thermal quench in a mitigated disruption and suggests that the mitigation process in spherical tokamaks is similar to that in conventional aspect ratio devices. (paper)

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

The value of advanced technology in meeting 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Clarke, Leon; Pugh, Graham; Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James; Kim, Son

2009-01-01

This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next 40 years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO 2 -e emissions of 50% and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is the expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.

Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

The potential contribution to climate change mitigation from temporary carbon storage in biomaterials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

2015-01-01

of biomaterials.The recently developed approach for quantifying the climate tipping potential (CTP) of emissions is used, with some adaption, to account for the value of temporary carbon storage. CTP values for short-, medium- and long-term carbon storage in chosen biomaterials are calculated for two possible...... future atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration development scenarios. The potential magnitude of the temporary carbon storage in biomaterials is estimated by considering the global polymer production being biobased in the future.Both sets of CTP values show the same trend; storage which releases...... contributes with negative CTP values, which means mitigation. The longer the duration of the storage, the larger the mitigation potential.Temporary carbon storage in biomaterials has a potential for contributing to avoid or postpone the crossing of a climatic target level of 450 ppm CO2e, depending on GHG...

Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weijermars, Ruud

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

Sectoral approaches establishment for climate change mitigation in Thailand upstream oil and gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaiyapa, Warathida; Esteban, Miguel; Kameyama, Yasuko

2016-01-01

Understanding the upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry's responses to climate change and what factors can be influential to trigger their mitigation strategies is crucial for policy-makers to harness the huge resources that this industry can mobilize towards environmental protection. Considering that individual climate change efforts are unlikely to affect global mitigation paths, the study investigates the possibility that sectoral approaches can help in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, using Thailand as a case study. It conducted online questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews to acquire primary data from companies and key informants from the government, NGOs, NPOs and academics. The results suggested that, among three possible groups of factors that could affect company decisions on whether to promote sectoral approaches, domestic politics (particularly the Thai government) is the most important, though other factors also play important and interrelated roles. The most welcomed type of scheme that could be envisaged would appear to be a sectoral agreement between government and industry. Finally, the authors provide two main policy recommendations, namely the establishment of an industrial association of O&G companies and for it to target how to start looking at measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions amongst large companies in the sector. - Highlights: •Examining the possibility of establishing a sectoral approach Thailand's upstream O&G industry. •Analytical framework was constructed to ascertain most influential factors. •Questionnaires and interviews were employed with companies, government, NGOs and academic. •Domestic politics is the most determining factor, but other factors have strong interrelation. •Sectoral agreement between government and industry is the most likely scheme to be established.

Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

2011-01-01

This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

Effect of farming practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of beef cattle production systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, T T H; Doreau, M; Eugène, M; Corson, M S; Garcia-Launay, F; Chesneau, G; van der Werf, H M G

2013-05-01

This study evaluated effects of farming practice scenarios aiming to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of a beef cattle production system using the life cycle assessment approach. The baseline scenario includes a standard cow-calf herd with finishing heifers based on grazing, and a standard bull-fattening herd using a diet mainly based on maize silage, corresponding to current farm characteristics and management by beef farmers in France. Alternative scenarios were developed with changes in farming practices. Some scenarios modified grassland management (S1: decreasing mineral N fertiliser on permanent grassland; S2: decreasing grass losses during grazing) or herd management (S3: underfeeding of heifers in winter; S4: fattening female calves instead of being reared at a moderate growth rate; S5: increasing longevity of cows from 7 to 9 years; S6: advancing first calving age from 3 to 2 years). Other scenarios replaced protein sources (S7: partially replacing a protein supplement by lucerne hay for the cow-calf herd; S8: replacing soya bean meal with rapeseed meal for the fattening herd) or increased n-3 fatty acid content using extruded linseed (S9). The combination of compatible scenarios S1, S2, S5, S6 and S8 was also studied (S10). The impacts, such as climate change (CC, not including CO2 emissions/sequestration of land use and land-use change, LULUC), CC/LULUC (including CO2 emissions of LULUC), cumulative energy demand, eutrophication (EP), acidification and land occupation (LO) were expressed per kg of carcass mass and per ha of land occupied. Compared with the baseline, the most promising practice to reduce impacts per kg carcass mass was S10 (all reduced by 13% to 28%), followed by S6 (by 8% to 10%). For other scenarios, impact reduction did not exceed 5%, except for EP (up to 11%) and LO (up to 10%). Effects of changes in farming practices (the scenarios) on environmental impacts varied

Method for evaluating natural gas demand scenarios (Demangas Project); Metodologia para avaliacao de cenarios de demanda pelo gas natural (Projeto Demangas)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindau, Luis Antonio [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Sistemas de Transportes; Santos, Gilberto T. dos; Silva, Silvio C. da; Ribeiro, Jose Luis D.; Fogliatto, Flavio S. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Otimizacao de Produtos e Processos

2004-07-01

This paper presents the methodology developed for the evaluation of the existing and potential market for natural gas in the industrial, automotive, residential and commercial sectors of Rio Grande do Sul. The methodology is based upon a marketing research framework and consists of the definition of the problem; application of qualitative, quantitative and stated-preference enquiries; review of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice; and, also, interviews with specialists. The methodology is consolidated in four software that enable the simulation of different demand scenarios of natural gas up to the year 2010. The development of this methodology comprised the participation of more than 1,000 potential users of natural gas and allowed the state company in charge of distributing natural gas to: structure the problem of forecasting the consumption of natural gas within a new context of competition in the energy industry; help the formulation of the strategic plan of the company with regard to investment strategies and incrementing the number of clients; and propose marketing efforts to promote the adoption of natural gas as an alternative energy source. (author)

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

2013-09-01

Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

2013-01-01

Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large-scale biomass use on a country level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornburg, Veronika; Dam, Jinke van; Faaij, Andre

2007-01-01

This study evaluates the possible influences of a large-scale introduction of biomass material and energy systems and their market volumes on land, material and energy market prices and their feedback to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation costs. GHG emission mitigation supply curves for large-scale biomass use were compiled using a methodology that combines a bottom-up analysis of biomass applications, biomass cost supply curves and market prices of land, biomaterials and bioenergy carriers. These market prices depend on the scale of biomass use and the market volume of materials and energy carriers and were estimated using own-price elasticities of demand. The methodology was demonstrated for a case study of Poland in the year 2015 applying different scenarios on economic development and trade in Europe. For the key technologies considered, i.e. medium density fibreboard, poly lactic acid, electricity and methanol production, GHG emission mitigation costs increase strongly with the scale of biomass production. Large-scale introduction of biomass use decreases the GHG emission reduction potential at costs below 50 Euro /Mg CO 2eq with about 13-70% depending on the scenario. Biomaterial production accounts for only a small part of this GHG emission reduction potential due to relatively small material markets and the subsequent strong decrease of biomaterial market prices at large scale of production. GHG emission mitigation costs depend strongly on biomass supply curves, own-price elasticity of land and market volumes of bioenergy carriers. The analysis shows that these influences should be taken into account for developing biomass implementations strategies

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

Science.gov (United States)

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J; Van Dingenen, Rita; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina; Arto, Iñaki; González-Eguino, Mikel

2018-03-01

Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regional level, the costs of

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

2013-01-01

Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Naturalness and stability of the generalized Chaplygin gas in the seesaw cosmon scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernardini, A. E.; Bertolami, O.

2010-01-01

The seesaw mechanism is conceived on the basis that a mass scale, ξ, and a dimensionless scale, s, can be fine-tuned in order to control the dynamics of active and sterile neutrinos through cosmon-type equations of motion: the seesaw cosmon equations. This allows for sterile neutrinos to be a dark matter candidate. In this scenario, the dynamical masses and energy densities of active and sterile neutrinos can be consistently embedded into the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG), the unified dark sector model. In addition, dark matter adiabatically coupled to dark energy allows for a natural decoupling of the (active) mass varying neutrino component from the dark sector. Thus mass varying neutrinos turn into a secondary effect. Through the scale parameters, ξ and s, the proposed scenario allows for a convergence among three distinct frameworks: the cosmon scenario, the seesaw mechanism for mass generation, and the GCG model. It is found that the equation of state of the perturbations is the very one of the GCG background cosmology so that all the results from this approach are maintained, being smoothly modified by active neutrinos. Constrained by the seesaw relations, it is shown that the mass varying mechanism is responsible for the stability against linear perturbations and is indirectly related to the late time cosmological acceleration.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Greenhouse gas mitigation in animal production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Boer, IJM; Cederberg, C; Eady, S

2011-01-01

The animal food chain contributes significantly to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We explored studies that addressed options to mitigate GHG emissions in the animal production chain and concluded that most studies focused on production systems in developed countries and on a single GHG...

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jallow, B.P.

1996-12-31

Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

Water quality management and climate change mitigation: cost-effectiveness of joint implementation in the Baltic Sea region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nainggolan, Doan; Hasler, Berit; Andersen, Hans Estrup

2018-01-01

of contrasting strategies: single environmental objective management versus joint implementation strategy. The results show that implementing land-based measures with a sole focus on water quality (to meet the HELCOM's 2013 Baltic Sea Action Plan nutrient abatement targets) can produce climate change mitigation......This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model....... In the present research, the model has been extended to include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effects, enabling us to analyse the tradeoffs between cost-effective GHG and nutrient load reductions. We run the model for four different scenarios in order to compare the environmental and economic consequences...

Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheridan Few

2017-01-01

Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

Economical analysis of an alternative strategy for CO2 mitigation based on nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, Gustavo; Valle, Edmundo del

2013-01-01

Many countries are pursuing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies resulting in the increase of use of renewable sources in the electricity sector to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Nuclear energy is a non-emitting CO 2 source that could be used as part of that policy. However, its main drawback is the high investment required for its deployment. On the other hand, wind power is the clean source preferred option to mitigate CO 2 emissions. However, due to its intermittence backup power is needed, in most of the cases it must be provided with combined cycle thermal plants using natural gas. This study performs an economical comparison of a hypothetical implementation of a nuclear strategy to meet the same CO 2 emissions reduction goal that has been obtained by the actual Spaniard strategy (2005–2010) based on wind power. The investment required in both strategies is assessed under different investment scenarios and electricity production conditions for nuclear power. Also, the cost of electricity generation is compared for both strategies. - Highlights: ► Wind power electricity cost including its backup in Spain is assessed. ► Nuclear power is proposed as an alternative to produce the same CO 2 reduction. ► Nuclear power requires less installed capacity deployment. ► Investment to produce the same CO 2 reduction is smaller using nuclear power. ► Electricity generating cost is less expensive using the nuclear option

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of short-rotation-coppice based generation of electricity in Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Kern, J.; Balasus, A.; Prochnow, A. [Leibniz Inst. of Agricultural Engineering, Potsdam (Germany)

2010-07-01

The generation of energy from wood biomass may help secure local energy supplies and reduce the greenhouse effect by substituting fossil resources with bio-based ones. In the case of short rotation coppice (SRC), bio-based resources can be generated by extensive agricultural production systems. They produce less carbon dioxide equivalent (CO{sub 2eq}) emissions than fossil resources. This paper reported on a study in which a model system was developed for a regional supply chain producing second generation bioenergy generated from SRC in eastern Germany. The study focuses on the generation of electricity and was compared to a business-as-usual reference system, based on the latest CO{sub 2} mitigation factors for renewable energies in the German power-generation mix. A life cycle assessment based on greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories was also conducted in which other factors were also considered, such as options for nutrient cycling. The key determinants for GHG mitigation with SRC were also discussed with regards to indirect land-use effects resulting from increased demand for land.

Unintended possible consequences of fuel input taxes for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heinz E. Klingelhöfer

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: South Africa is planning to introduce a carbon tax as a Pigouvian measure for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, one of the tax bases designed as a fuel input tax. In this form, it is supposed to incentivise users to reduce and/or substitute fossil fuels, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions. Aim: This article examines how such a carbon tax regime may affect the individual willingness to invest in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies. Setting: Mathematical derivation, using methods of linear programming, duality theory and sensitivity analysis. Methods: By employing a two-step evaluation approach, it allows to identify the factors determining the maximum price an individual investor would pay for such an investment, given the conditions of imperfect markets. Results: This price ceiling depends on the (corrected net present values of the payments and on the interdependencies arising from changes in the optimal investment and production programmes. Although the well-established results of environmental economics usually can be confirmed for a single investment, increasing carbon taxes may entail sometimes contradictory and unexpected consequences for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions. Under certain circumstances, they may discourage such investments and, when still undertaken, even lead to higher emissions. However, these results can be interpreted in an economically comprehensible manner. Conclusion: Under the usually given conditions of imperfect markets, the impact of a carbon tax regime on individual investment decisions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not as straight forward as under the usually assumed, but unrealistically simplifying perfect market conditions. To avoid undesired and discouraging effects, policy makers cannot make solitary decisions, but have to take interdependencies on the addressee´s side into account. The individual investor

Adaptive Detection and ISI Mitigation for Mobile Molecular Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Ge; Lin, Lin; Yan, Hao

2018-03-01

Current studies on modulation and detection schemes in molecular communication mainly focus on the scenarios with static transmitters and receivers. However, mobile molecular communication is needed in many envisioned applications, such as target tracking and drug delivery. Until now, investigations about mobile molecular communication have been limited. In this paper, a static transmitter and a mobile bacterium-based receiver performing random walk are considered. In this mobile scenario, the channel impulse response changes due to the dynamic change of the distance between the transmitter and the receiver. Detection schemes based on fixed distance fail in signal detection in such a scenario. Furthermore, the intersymbol interference (ISI) effect becomes more complex due to the dynamic character of the signal which makes the estimation and mitigation of the ISI even more difficult. In this paper, an adaptive ISI mitigation method and two adaptive detection schemes are proposed for this mobile scenario. In the proposed scheme, adaptive ISI mitigation, estimation of dynamic distance, and the corresponding impulse response reconstruction are performed in each symbol interval. Based on the dynamic channel impulse response in each interval, two adaptive detection schemes, concentration-based adaptive threshold detection and peak-time-based adaptive detection, are proposed for signal detection. Simulations demonstrate that the ISI effect is significantly reduced and the adaptive detection schemes are reliable and robust for mobile molecular communication.

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 deg. C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Chen, Claudine; Meinshausen, Malte

2011-01-01

Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 deg. C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates, such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks, as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy, here called 'harmonization', are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO 2 eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO 2 eq benchmark, the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO 2 eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges.

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Sustainable urban transportation: impact of CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies on local pollutants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudhakar Yedla; Jyoti K Parikh [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India); Ram M Shrestha [Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). School of Environment Resource and Development

2003-07-01

This paper assesses CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi and Mumbai against the dynamics of local pollutants. After testing against techno-economic feasibility, compressed natural gas (CNG) technology, four-stroke two-wheelers and battery-operated vehicles (BOV) were selected as candidate options for Mumbai and Delhi. Multiple constrained optimization for finding out the optimal mix of vehicles to meet the travel demand under the business-as-usual scenario for the period of 1998-2020 revealed the dominance of CNG vehicles. CO{sub 2} mitigation targets of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% resulted in reduced stock of diesel and petrol vehicles, with the reduction spanning over different points of the above time period. In the case of Mumbai, battery-operated three-wheelers dominated the vehicular mix, with the share of CNG vehicles remaining at a standard level. CO{sub 2} reduction targets did not influence the CNG option significantly. CO{sub 2} mitigation influenced the dynamics of local pollutants considerably in both Delhi and Mumbai. In Delhi, TSP and SO{sub x} reduction levels against the CO{sub 2} mitigation target were found to be significant. In Mumbai, the percentage reduction in local pollution (TSP in particular) was higher than the target CO{sub 2} reduction. Local pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x} showed an increasing trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi. In the case of Mumbai, all non-target pollutants showed a falling trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies, though insignificantly for pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x}. (author)

A core framework and scenario for deep GHG reductions at the city scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazarus, Michael; Chandler, Chelsea; Erickson, Peter

2013-01-01

Trends in increasing urbanization, paired with a lack of ambitious action on larger scales, uniquely position cities to resume leadership roles in climate mitigation. While many cities have adopted ambitious long-term emission reduction goals, few have articulated how to reach them. This paper presents one of the first long-term scenarios of deep greenhouse gas abatement for a major U.S. city. Using a detailed, bottom-up scenario analysis, we investigate how Seattle might achieve its recently stated goal of carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The analysis demonstrates that a series of ambitious strategies could achieve per capita GHG reductions of 34% in 2020, and 91% in 2050 in Seattle's “core” emissions from the buildings, transportation, and waste sectors. We examine the pros and cons of options to get to, or beyond, net zero emissions in these sectors. We also discuss methodological innovations for community-scale emissions accounting frameworks, including a “core” emissions focus that excludes industrial activity and a consumption perspective that expands the emissions footprint and scope of policy solutions. As in Seattle, other communities may find the mitigation strategies and analytical approaches presented here are useful for crafting policies to achieve deep GHG-reduction goals. - Highlights: ► Cities can play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. ► Strategies modeled achieve per-capita GHG reductions of 91% by 2050 in Seattle. ► We discuss methodological innovations in community-scale accounting frameworks. ► We weigh options for getting to, or beyond, zero GHG emissions. ► Other cities may adapt these measures and analytical approaches to curb emissions

Greenhouse gas mitigation for U.S. plastics production: energy first, feedstocks later

Science.gov (United States)

Posen, I. Daniel; Jaramillo, Paulina; Landis, Amy E.; Griffin, W. Michael

2017-03-01

Plastics production is responsible for 1% and 3% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy use, respectively. Replacing conventional plastics with bio-based plastics (made from renewable feedstocks) is frequently proposed as a way to mitigate these impacts. Comparatively little research has considered the potential for green energy to reduce emissions in this industry. This paper compares two strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. plastics production: using renewable energy or switching to renewable feedstocks. Renewable energy pathways assume all process energy comes from wind power and renewable natural gas derived from landfill gas. Renewable feedstock pathways assume that all commodity thermoplastics will be replaced with polylactic acid (PLA) and bioethylene-based plastics, made using either corn or switchgrass, and powered using either conventional or renewable energy. Corn-based biopolymers produced with conventional energy are the dominant near-term biopolymer option, and can reduce industry-wide GHG emissions by 25%, or 16 million tonnes CO2e/year (mean value). In contrast, switching to renewable energy cuts GHG emissions by 50%-75% (a mean industry-wide reduction of 38 million tonnes CO2e/year). Both strategies increase industry costs—by up to 85/tonne plastic (mean result) for renewable energy, and up to 3000 tonne-1 plastic for renewable feedstocks. Overall, switching to renewable energy achieves greater emission reductions, with less uncertainty and lower costs than switching to corn-based biopolymers. In the long run, producing bio-based plastics from advanced feedstocks (e.g. switchgrass) and/or with renewable energy can further reduce emissions, to approximately 0 CO2e/year (mean value).

Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

2013-01-01

The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quant......The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed...... components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services....

ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry [and others

2009-07-31

ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

2009-07-31

ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kok, Robert; Annema, Jan Anne; Wee, Bert van

2011-01-01

A review is given of methodological practices for ex ante cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of transport greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures, e.g. fuel economy and CO 2 standards for road vehicles in the US and EU. Besides the fundamental differences between different types of policies and abatement options which inherently result in different CEA outcomes, differences in methodological choices and assumptions are another important source of variation in CEA outcomes. Fourteen methodological issues clustered into six groups are identified on which thirty-three selected studies are systematically reviewed. The potential variation between lower and upper cost-effectiveness estimates for GHG mitigation measures in transport, resulting from different methodological choices and assumptions, lies in the order of $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. The practise of using CEA for policy-making could improve considerably by clearly indicating the specific purpose of the CEA and its strengths and limitations for policy decisions. Another improvement is related to the dominant approach in transport GHG mitigation studies: the bottom-up financial technical approach which assesses isolated effects, implying considerable limitations for policy-making. A shift to welfare-economic approaches using a hybrid model has the potential to establish an improved assessment of transport GHG mitigation measures based on realistic market responses and behavioural change. - Highlights: ► We identify fourteen important methodological issues clustered into six groups. ► We systematically review thirty-three selected transport GHG mitigation studies. ► Methodological choices can lead to a difference by up to $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. ► The dominant bottom-up approach has limitations for policy-making. ► Welfare-economic approaches could improve cost-effectiveness analysis.

Pollutant swapping: greenhouse gas emissions from wetland systems constructed to mitigate agricultural pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Freer, Adam; Quinton, John; Surridge, Ben; McNamara, Niall

2014-05-01

Diffuse (non-point) water pollution from agricultural land continues to challenge water quality management, requiring the adoption of new land management practices. The use of constructed agricultural wetlands is one such practice, designed to trap multiple pollutants mobilised by rainfall prior to them reaching receiving water. Through capturing and storing pollutants in bottom sediments, it could be hypothesised that the abundance of nutrients stored in the anoxic conditions commonly found in these zones may lead to pollutant swapping. Under these circumstances, trapped material may undergo biogeochemical cycling to change chemical or physical form and thereby become more problematic or mobile within the environment. Thus, constructed agricultural wetlands designed to mitigate against one form of pollution may in fact offset the created benefits by 'swapping' this pollution into other forms and pathways, such as through release to the atmosphere. Pollutant swapping to the atmosphere has been noted in analogous wetland systems designed to treat municipal and industrial wastewaters, with significant fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O being recorded in some cases. However the small size, low level of engineering and variable nutrient/sediment inputs which are features of constructed agricultural wetlands, means that this knowledge is not directly transferable. Therefore, more information is required when assessing whether a wetland's potential to act as hotspot for pollution swapping outweighs its potential to act as a mitigation tool for surface water pollution. Here we present results from an on-going monitoring study at a trial agricultural wetland located in small a mixed-use catchment in Cumbria, UK. Estimates were made of CH4, CO2 and N2O flux from the wetland surface using adapted floating static chambers, which were then directly compared with fluxes from an undisturbed riparian zone. Results indicate that while greenhouse gas flux from the wetland may be

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Carlson

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in different economic sectors: Mitigation measures, health co-benefits, knowledge gaps, and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jinghong; Hou, Hongli; Zhai, Yunkai; Woodward, Alistair; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kovats, Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Li, Liping; Song, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lei; Meng, Bohan; Liu, Xiaobo; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Jie; Liu, Qiyong

2018-05-15

To date, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mitigation strategies and the accompanying health co-benefits in different economic sectors have not been fully investigated. The purpose of this paper is to review comprehensively the evidence on GHG mitigation measures and the related health co-benefits, identify knowledge gaps, and provide recommendations to promote further development and implementation of climate change response policies. Evidence on GHG emissions, abatement measures and related health co-benefits has been observed at regional, national and global levels, involving both low- and high-income societies. GHG mitigation actions have mainly been taken in five sectors: energy generation, transport, food and agriculture, household and industry, consistent with the main sources of GHG emissions. GHGs and air pollutants to a large extent stem from the same sources and are inseparable in terms of their atmospheric evolution and effects on ecosystem; thus, GHG reductions are usually, although not always, estimated to have cost effective co-benefits for public health. Some integrated mitigation strategies involving multiple sectors, which tend to create greater health benefits. The pros and cons of different mitigation measures, issues with existing knowledge, priorities for research, and potential policy implications were also discussed. Findings from this study can play a role not only in motivating large GHG emitters to make decisive changes in GHG emissions, but also in facilitating cooperation at international, national and regional levels, to promote GHG mitigation policies that protect public health from climate change and air pollution simultaneously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Wei; Voet, Ester van der; Zhang Yufeng; Huppes, Gjalt

2009-01-01

The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO 2 eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are found to

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao Wei [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Weijin Road 92, Nankai District 300072 (China); Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands)], E-mail: zhao@cml.leidenuniv.nl; Voet, Ester van der [Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands); Zhang Yufeng [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Weijin Road 92, Nankai District 300072 (China); Huppes, Gjalt [Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands)

2009-02-15

The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO{sub 2} eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are

What factors influence mitigative capacity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Baumert, Kevin; Blanchard, Odile; Burch, Sarah; Robinson, John

2007-01-01

This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By 'ability' we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation

An evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation options for coal-fired power plants in the US Great Lakes States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Froese, Robert E.; Shonnard, David R.; Miller, Chris A.; Koers, Ken P.; Johnson, Dana M.

2010-01-01

We assessed options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in the US Great Lakes States, a region heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants. A proposed 600 MW power plant in northern Lower Michigan, USA provided context for our evaluation. Options to offset fossil CO 2 emissions by 20% included biomass fuel substitution from (1) forest residuals, (2) short-rotation woody crops, or (3) switchgrass; (4) biologic sequestration in forest plantations; and (5) geologic sequestration using CO 2 capture. Review of timber product output data, land cover data, and expected energy crop productivity on idle agriculture land within 120 km of the plant revealed that biomass from forestry residuals has the potential to offset 6% and from energy crops 27% of the annual fossil fuel requirement. Furthermore, annual forest harvest in the region is only 26% of growth and the surplus represents a large opportunity for forest products and bioenergy applications. We used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare mitigation options, using fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions per unit electricity generation as criteria. LCA results revealed that co-firing with forestry residuals is the most attractive option and geologic sequestration is the least attractive option, based on the two criteria. Biologic sequestration is intermediate but likely infeasible because of very large land area requirements. Our study revealed that biomass feedstock potentials from land and forest resources are not limiting mitigation activities, but the most practical approach is likely a combination of options that optimize additional social, environmental and economic criteria.

Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astudillo, Miguel F.; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier; Amor, Ben

2017-01-01

Highlights: •An energy system model of Quebec is combined with building simulation software. •Greenhouse gas emission reductions efforts increase annual electricity peak demand. •Alternative heating tech. And building envelopes can effectively reduce peak demand. •Denser urban developments massively reduced costs of global warming mitigation. •CO 2 emissions from hydropower reservoirs are relevant in global warming mitigation. -- Abstract: The transition to low carbon societies may increase peak electricity demand, which can be costly to supply with renewable energy, whose availability is uncertain. Buildings are often the main cause of peak demand, and they are believed to hold a large unrealised energy-efficiency potential. If realised, this potential could considerably mitigate the transition costs to low carbon societies, reducing average and peak electricity demands. We explore this potential in several cost-optimal global warming (GW) mitigation scenarios using a multi-sector TIMES energy system model of the province of Quebec for the period 2011–2050. Heating and conservation measures in the residential sector are modelled using building simulations and parameters’ values from the literature. The intra-annual availability of renewable energy and electricity imports is derived from time-series analysis. Additionally, the influence of key parameters such as the projections of primary energy demand and emissions from reservoir impoundment is evaluated. Finally, we discuss some of the barriers that could hamper the energy transition and how they can be overcome. Results indicate that peak demand would rise by 30% due to GW mitigation efforts, but it can be effectively reduced by interventions in the residential sector. Heat pumps are the most cost effective heating technology, despite their lower efficiencies in cold climates. Better-insulated building envelopes have an important role in new houses, reducing by 14% the GW mitigation costs and

Power production feasibility analysis from landfill gas in Cruzeiro [SP, Brazil]: three different scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leticia de Oliveira Silva

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Solid wastes are related to diseases and environmental pollution, the need for greater knowledge of the waste composition and the best final disposal from this waste. The importance of the environmental sanitation can be observed in PNRS (national solid waste politics, which describes the need for urban cleaning and garbage collection, from the implementation of goals for better allocation of this waste. For the purpose of an overview of the solid waste produced in the city of Cruzeiro [State of Sao Paulo, Brazil], a projection and analysis of the construction of a landfill for the packaging of this waste, beginning by the year 2013, for a period of 20 years. The lack of places for waste packaging results in contamination of groundwater and soils. With the help of the software "WARM", the analysis of three scenarios, with material recycling and composting, and use the 2 and 3 scenarios with the use of gas.

The role of China in mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey; Morris, Jennifer; Cai, Yongxia; Karplus, Valerie; Jacoby, Henry

2012-01-01

We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China's role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China's energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China's commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2 °C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1 °C to 1.3 °C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. - Highlights: ► It is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies. ► China's mitigation actions proposed for 2015 and 2020 are reachable at modest costs. ► Meeting 2 °C target is problematic without radical GHG emissions reductions.

Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, Jacob Cornelis Jan

2015-01-01

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

2014-02-01

The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

1997-07-01

The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

Experimental hydrate formation and gas production scenarios based on CO{sub 2} sequestration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, J.C.; Howard, J.J. [ConocoPhillips, Bartlesville, OK (United States). Reservoir Laboratories; Baldwin, B.A. [Green Country Petrophysics LLC, Dewey, OK (United States); Ersland, G.; Husebo, J.; Graue, A. [Bergen Univ., Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Physics and Technology

2008-07-01

Gas hydrate production strategies have focused on depressurization or thermal stimulation of the reservoir, which in turn leads to hydrate dissociation. In order to evaluate potential production scenarios, the recovery efficiency of the natural gas from hydrate must be known along with the corresponding amounts of produced water. This study focused on the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) with the natural gas hydrate and the subsequent release of free methane (CH{sub 4}). Laboratory experiments that investigated the rates and mechanisms of hydrate formation in coarse-grained porous media have shown the significance of initial water saturation and salinity on forming methane hydrates. Many of the experiments were performed in a sample holder fitted with an MRI instrument for monitoring hydrate formation. Hydrate-saturated samples were subjected to different procedures to release methane. The rates and efficiency of the exchange process were reproducible over a series of initial conditions. The exchange process was rapid and efficient in that no free water was observed in the core with MRI measurements. Injection of CO{sub 2} into the whole-core hydrate-saturated pore system resulted in methane production at the outlet end. Permeability measurements on these hydrate saturated cores during hydrate formation decreased to low values, but enough for gas transport. The lower permeability values remained constant during the methane-carbon dioxide exchange process in the hydrate structure. 12 refs., 9 figs.

Greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential of changes in water management for two rice sites in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Begum, Khadiza; Kuhnert, Matthias; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Smith, Pete; Ogle, Stephen; Parton, William; Kader, Abdul; Sleutel, Steven

2017-04-01

Agriculture is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Bangladesh and rice production is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions. This study considers measurements from two test sites, situated in Mymensingh (Bangladesh), to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical model DailyDayCent and estimate the mitigation potential of alternative management practices at the sites. There are two different N application treatments on the two test sites, which are on the first site a control with no N application and a mineral fertilizer application (120 kg N ha-1) and on the second site only a mineral fertilizer application (110 kg N ha-1). For mitigation, the water management is modified in a modelling approach to estimate the mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions. The model shows partial agreement with the observations. The modifications to the water management, by changing from permanent wetting to alternate wetting, shows a decrease in GHG emissions of up to 46 % and 37 % for the two test sites, respectively. These tests enable an optimization of the management options to reduce the GHG emissions while maintaining yields.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

Small-scale electricity generating facilities from natural gas : a measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect; Microgeneracion de energia con gas natural: una medida efectiva para mitigar el cambio climatico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutierrez, A. M.

2002-07-01

The forthcoming liberalization of the gas and electricity markets in Europe, in conjunction with the increase of the global energy consumption in the near future are enabling the development of natural gas alternatives to traditional large-scale centralized power plants. They emerged from research suggesting that the use of small-scale electricity generating facilities dispersed throughout the electrical network, provides the electricity system with measurable technical, economic and environmental benefits. In this sense, the distributed generation powered by cogeneration systems offers the biggest measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect due to the carbon dioxide. (Author)

Disruption mitigation studies in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, P.L.; Kellman, A.G.; Evans, T.E.

1999-01-01

Data on the discharge behavior, thermal loads, halo currents, and runaway electrons have been obtained in disruptions on the DIII-D tokamak. These experiments have also evaluated techniques to mitigate the disruptions while minimizing runaway electron production. Experiments injecting cryogenic impurity killer pellets of neon and argon and massive amounts of helium gas have successfully reduced these disruption effects. The halo current generation, scaling, and mitigation are understood and are in good agreement with predictions of a semianalytic model. Results from killer pellet injection have been used to benchmark theoretical models of the pellet ablation and energy loss. Runaway electrons are often generated by the pellets and new runaway generation mechanisms, modifications of the standard Dreicer process, have been found to explain the runaways. Experiments with the massive helium gas puff have also effectively mitigated disruptions without the formation of runaway electrons that can occur with killer pellets

Mitigation of global warming and the role of identification of greenhouse gas sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaya, Y.

2002-01-01

Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST) is an organization supporting R and D of frontier science and technologies under the full sponsorship of the government of Japan. Under the umbrella of JST the author is in charge of a program called 'Environment friendly social systems' which includes more than 20 research projects for better environment (with as an average of 1 million US dollars per project per year). One of the projects in this program is on development of isotopomer technology and its use in identifying greenhouse gas (GHG) sources headed by Prof. N.Yoshida. JST earnestly hopes that it can contribute as much as possible to mitigation of global warming through the support of important research projects such as Yoshida's. (author)

Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2015-09-01

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

Studies on representative disruption scenarios, associated electromagnetic and heat loads and operation window in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujieda, Hirobumi; Shimada, Michiya; Kawano, Yasunori; Ohmori, Junji; Neyatani, Yuzuru; Sugihara, Masayoshi; Gribov, Yuri; Ioki, Kimihiro; Khayrutdinov, Rustan; Lukash, Victor

2007-07-01

The impacts of plasma disruptions on ITER have been investigated in detail to confirm the robustness of the design of the machine to the potential consequential loads. The loads include both electromagnetic (EM) and heat loads on the in-vessel components and the vacuum vessel (VV). Several representative disruption scenarios are specified based on newly derived physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time as well as the maximum product of halo current fraction and toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and EM load analyses with a 3D finite element method (FEM) code are performed for these scenarios. Some margins are confirmed in the EM load on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. However, the margins are not very large. The heat load on various parts of the first wall due to the vertical movement and the thermal quench (TQ) is calculated with a 2D heat conduction code based on the database of heat deposition during disruptions and simulation results with the DINA code. It is found that the beryllium (Be) wall will not melt during the vertical movement. Significant melting is anticipated for the upper Be wall and tungsten divertor baffle due to the TQ after the vertical movement. However, its impact could be substantially mitigated by implementing a reliable detection system of the vertical movement and a mitigation system, e.g., massive noble gas injection (MGI). Some melting of the upper Be wall is anticipated at major disruptions (MD). At least several tens of unmitigated disruptions must be considered even if an advanced prediction/mitigation system is implemented. With these unmitigated disruptions, the loss of Be layer is expected to be within approx. = 30-100 μm/event out of 10 mm thick Be first wall. Various post processing programs of the results simulated with the DINA code, which are developed for the design work, are

Electric-power systems planning and greenhouse-gas emission management under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.

2012-01-01

Highlight: ►A multistage stochastic integer programming model is developed for planning electric-power systems. ►Uncertain and dynamic information can be incorporated within a multilayer scenario tree. ►This can help minimize system cost under random energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement goal. ►Results can support decisions of facility expansion, electricity supply and GHG mitigation. - Abstract: In this study, a multistage interval-stochastic integer programming model is formulated for managing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and planning electric-power systems under uncertainty. The developed model can reflect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of energy systems. Besides, the model can be used for answering questions related to types, times, demands and mitigations of energy systems planning practices, with the objective of minimizing system cost over a long-time planning horizon. The solutions can help generate electricity-generation schemes and capacity-expansion plans under different GHG-mitigation options and electricity-demand levels. Tradeoffs among system cost, energy security, and emission management can also be tackled. A high system cost will increase renewable energy supply and reduce GHG emission, while a desire for a low cost will run into risks of a high energy deficiency and a high GHG emission.

The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and non-CO 2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO 2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH 4 ) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO 2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO 2 and CH 4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO 2 -equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO 2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas

Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowlatabadi, H.

1998-01-01

With greater certainty in anthropogenic influence on observed changes in climate there is increasing pressure for agreements to control emissions of greenhouse gases ([HOUGHTON]). While it is difficult to assess the appropriate level of mitigation, it has been argued that flexibility in meeting emission targets offers significant economic savings. Such flexibility can be exercised in terms of timing of mitigation (i.e. delay) or geographic location of the intervention (e.g. permit trading and Joint-Implementation). Much of this insight is based on standard models of technical change in energy supply and demand. However, standard model formulations rarely consider: (i) a link between the pattern of technical change and policy interventions; (ii) economies of learning; and (iii) technical progress in discovery and recovery of oil and gas. While there is evidence to support the importance of these factors in historic patterns of technical progress, the data necessary to calibrate internally consistent economic models of these phenomena have not been available. In this paper simple representations of endogenous and induced technical change have been used to explore the sensitivity of mitigation cost estimates to how technical change is represented in energy economics models. The scenarios involve control of CO 2 emissions to limit its concentration to no more than 550 ppm(v), starting in the year 2000, and delayed to 2025. This sensitivity analysis has revealed four robust insights: (i) If endogenous technical change is assumed, expected business as usual emissions are higher than otherwise estimated - nevertheless, while 25% greater CO 2 control is required for meeting the CO 2 concentration target, the cost of mitigation is 40% lower; (ii) If technical progress in oil and gas discovery and recovery is assumed, energy use and CO 2 emissions increase by 75% and 65%, respectively above the standard estimates; (iii) If the economies of learning exhibited in various

The potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating CO2 emissions in the United Arab Emirates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AlFarra, Hasan Jamil; Abu-Hijleh, Bassam

2012-01-01

The annual CO 2 emissions have more than doubled in the UAE since 1990. Electricity generated by fossil fuels is responsible for almost half of the country's emissions. Keeping with the Kyoto Protocol, the UAE decided to integrate nuclear energy into the electricity scheme to mitigate CO 2 emissions as declared by the government. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions from the built environment up to year 2050. The IAEA's simulation model “MESSAGE” is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE up to year 2050. Several energy supply/fuels scenarios are modeled and simulated including the following: Business as Usual (BaU), the UAE proposed nuclear strategy (APR1400) as well as 12 more aggressive Clean Energy Era (CEE) proposed scenarios. Nuclear energy, especially in its extreme CEE scenario (8NPPs), was found to be more practical option in mitigating CO 2 than renewable energy and carbon capture and sequestration among the simulated scenarios. Nuclear energy also demonstrated an economic viability. The cost of electricity produced from nuclear energy was calculated to be 3.2 cents/kWh, significantly less than the current cost of 8.15 cents/kWh for electricity generation from fossil fuels in the UAE. - Highlights: ► Effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions. ► Simulation is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE. ► Tested several energy supply/fuels scenarios on mitigating CO 2 .

Risks and mitigation options for on-site storage of wastewater from shale gas and tight oil development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuwayama, Yusuke; Roeshot, Skyler; Krupnick, Alan; Richardson, Nathan; Mares, Jan

2017-01-01

We provide a critical review of existing research and information regarding the sources of risk associated with on-site shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage in the United States, the gaps that exist in knowledge regarding these risks, policy and technology options for addressing the risks, and the relative merits of those options. Specifically, we (a) identify the potential risks to human and ecological health associated with on-site storage of shale gas and tight oil wastewater via a literature survey and analysis of data on wastewater spills and regulatory violations, (b) provide a detailed description of government regulations or industry actions that may mitigate these risks to human and ecological health, and (c) provide a critical review of this information to help generate progress toward concrete action to make shale gas and tight oil development more sustainable and more acceptable to a skeptical public, while keeping costs down. - Highlights: • We review current research/information on shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage. • Pit overflows, tank overfills, and liner malfunctions are common spill causes. • Tanks lead to smaller and less frequent spills than pits, but are not a magic bullet. • State regulations for on-site oil and gas wastewater storage are very heterogeneous.

Source attribution and mitigation strategies for air pollution in Delhi

Science.gov (United States)

Kiesewetter, Gregor; Purohit, Pallav; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Liu, Jun; Amann, Markus; Bhanarkar, Anil

2017-04-01

Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5 concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5° resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2 × 2 km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5 in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weighted PM2.5 originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cookstoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in

DWPF Melter Off-Gas Flammability Assessment for Sludge Batch 9

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, A. S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

2016-07-11

The slurry feed to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter contains several organic carbon species that decompose in the cold cap and produce flammable gases that could accumulate in the off-gas system and create potential flammability hazard. To mitigate such a hazard, DWPF has implemented a strategy to impose the Technical Safety Requirement (TSR) limits on all key operating variables affecting off-gas flammability and operate the melter within those limits using both hardwired/software interlocks and administrative controls. The operating variables that are currently being controlled include; (1) total organic carbon (TOC), (2) air purges for combustion and dilution, (3) melter vapor space temperature, and (4) feed rate. The safety basis limits for these operating variables are determined using two computer models, 4-stage cold cap and Melter Off-Gas (MOG) dynamics models, under the baseline upset scenario - a surge in off-gas flow due to the inherent cold cap instabilities in the slurry-fed melter.

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Alessandri

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-François; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-10-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110-285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80-300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast

Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

Sustainability of UK shale gas in comparison with other electricity options: Current situation and future scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Jasmin; Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

2018-04-01

Many countries are considering exploitation of shale gas but its overall sustainability is currently unclear. Previous studies focused mainly on environmental aspects of shale gas, largely in the US, with scant information on socio-economic aspects. To address this knowledge gap, this paper integrates for the first time environmental, economic and social aspects of shale gas to evaluate its overall sustainability. The focus is on the UK which is on the cusp of developing a shale gas industry. Shale gas is compared to other electricity options for the current situation and future scenarios up to the year 2030 to investigate whether it can contribute towards a more sustainable electricity mix in the UK. The results obtained through multi-criteria decision analysis suggest that, when equal importance is assumed for each of the three sustainability aspects shale gas ranks seventh out of nine electricity options, with wind and solar PV being the best and coal the worst options. However, it outranks biomass and hydropower. Changing the importance of the sustainability aspects widely, the ranking of shale gas ranges between fourth and eighth. For shale gas to become the most sustainable option of those assessed, large improvements would be needed, including a 329-fold reduction in environmental impacts and 16 times higher employment, along with simultaneous large changes (up to 10,000 times) in the importance assigned to each criterion. Similar changes would be needed if it were to be comparable to conventional or liquefied natural gas, biomass, nuclear or hydropower. The results also suggest that a future electricity mix (2030) would be more sustainable with a lower rather than a higher share of shale gas. These results serve to inform UK policy makers, industry and non-governmental organisations. They will also be of interest to other countries considering exploitation of shale gas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2012-01-01

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

Use of the disruption mitigation valve in closed loop for routine protection at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reux, Cédric; Lehnen, Michael; Kruezi, Uron; Jachmich, Stefan; Card, Peter; Heinola, Kalle; Joffrin, Emmanuel; Lomas, Peter J.; Marsen, Stefan; Matthews, Guy; Riccardo, Valeria; Rimini, Fernanda; Vries, Peter de

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A massive gas injection valve was used for disruption routine mitigation at JET. ► A disruption mitigation valve was integrated in JET real time systems. ► Simple triggering schemes such as mode lock were used for disruption detection. ► High forces disruptions were prevented by the use of the gas valve. ► Radiated energy is higher in mitigated disruption than in unmitigated ones. -- Abstract: Disruptions are a major concern for next-generation tokamaks, including ITER. Heat loads, electromagnetic forces and runaway electrons generated by disruptions have to be mitigated for a reliable operation of future machines. Massive gas injection is one of the methods proposed for disruption mitigation. This article reports the first use of massive gas injection as an active disruption protection system at JET. During the 2011–2012 campaigns, 67 disruptions have been mitigated by the disruption mitigation valve (DMV) following a detection by mode lock amplitude and loop voltage changes. Most of disruptions where the valve was intended to be used were successfully mitigated by the DMV, although at different stages of the typical slow disruptions of the ITER-like wall. The fraction of magnetic and thermal energy radiated during the disruption was found to be increased by the action of the DMV. Vertical forces dispersion was also reduced. No non-sustained breakdown was observed following pulses terminated by the disruption mitigation valve

Use of the disruption mitigation valve in closed loop for routine protection at JET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reux, Cédric, E-mail: cedric.reux@ccfe.ac.uk [Ecole Polytechnique, LPP, CNRS UMR 7648, 91128 Palaiseau (France); JET-EFDA, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Lehnen, Michael; Kruezi, Uron [Association EURATOM-FZJ, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, 52425 Julich (Germany); Jachmich, Stefan [Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas-Laboratorium voor Plasmafysica, Association EURATOM-Belgian State Institute ERM/KMS, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); EFDA-CSU, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Card, Peter [Culham Science Centre, EURATOM/CCFE Association, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Heinola, Kalle [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Joffrin, Emmanuel [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Lomas, Peter J. [Culham Science Centre, EURATOM/CCFE Association, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Marsen, Stefan [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Teilinstitut Greifswald, EURATOM-Assoziation, D-17491 Greifswald (Germany); Matthews, Guy; Riccardo, Valeria; Rimini, Fernanda [Culham Science Centre, EURATOM/CCFE Association, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Vries, Peter de [FOM Institute DIFFER, P.O. Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

2013-10-15

Highlights: ► A massive gas injection valve was used for disruption routine mitigation at JET. ► A disruption mitigation valve was integrated in JET real time systems. ► Simple triggering schemes such as mode lock were used for disruption detection. ► High forces disruptions were prevented by the use of the gas valve. ► Radiated energy is higher in mitigated disruption than in unmitigated ones. -- Abstract: Disruptions are a major concern for next-generation tokamaks, including ITER. Heat loads, electromagnetic forces and runaway electrons generated by disruptions have to be mitigated for a reliable operation of future machines. Massive gas injection is one of the methods proposed for disruption mitigation. This article reports the first use of massive gas injection as an active disruption protection system at JET. During the 2011–2012 campaigns, 67 disruptions have been mitigated by the disruption mitigation valve (DMV) following a detection by mode lock amplitude and loop voltage changes. Most of disruptions where the valve was intended to be used were successfully mitigated by the DMV, although at different stages of the typical slow disruptions of the ITER-like wall. The fraction of magnetic and thermal energy radiated during the disruption was found to be increased by the action of the DMV. Vertical forces dispersion was also reduced. No non-sustained breakdown was observed following pulses terminated by the disruption mitigation valve.

Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.

2018-03-01

We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

2013-01-01

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

Greenhouse gas emissions during MSW landfilling in China: influence of waste characteristics and LFG treatment measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Na; Zhang, Hua; Shao, Li-Ming; Lü, Fan; He, Pin-Jing

2013-11-15

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can be highly cost-effective in terms of GHG mitigation. This study investigated GHG emissions during MSW landfilling in China under four existing scenarios and in terms of seven different categories: waste collection and transportation, landfill management, leachate treatment, fugitive CH4 (FM) emissions, substitution of electricity production, carbon sequestration and N2O and CO emissions. GHG emissions from simple sanitary landfilling technology where no landfill gas (LFG) extraction took place (Scenario 1) were higher (641-998 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww) than those from open dump (Scenario 0, 480-734 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww). This was due to the strictly anaerobic conditions in Scenario 1. LFG collection and treatment reduced GHG emissions to 448-684 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 2 (with LFG flare) and 214-277 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 3 (using LFG for electricity production). Amongst the seven categories, FM was the predominant contributor to GHG emissions. Global sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters associated with waste characteristics (i.e. CH4 potential and carbon sequestered faction) and LFG management (i.e. LFG collection efficiency and CH4 oxidation efficiency) were of great importance. A further learning on the MSW in China indicated that water content and dry matter content of food waste were the basic factors affecting GHG emissions. Source separation of food waste, as well as increasing the incineration ratio of mixed collected MSW, could effectively mitigate the overall GHG emissions from landfilling in a specific city. To increase the LFG collection and CH4 oxidation efficiencies could considerably reduce GHG emissions on the landfill site level. While, the improvement in the LFG utilization measures had an insignificant impact as long as the LFG is recovered for energy generation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Jane M.-F.; Franzluebbers, Alan J.; Weyers, Sharon Lachnicht; Reicosky, Donald C.

2007-01-01

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O. It can also be a sink for CO 2 through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH 4 consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N 2 O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint. - Management options can be used to reduce agriculture's environmental impacts

Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the av miljø landfill, denmark: system design and gas distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Peter; Skov, B.; Cassini, Filippo

2013-01-01

-passive biocover system was constructed at the AV Miljø landfill. The biocover is fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the often observed overloaded hot spot areas resulting from uneven gas distribution to the active methane oxidation......Greenhouse gas mitigation at landfills by methane oxidation in engineered biocover systems is believed to be a cost effective technology but so far a full quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the technology in full scale has only been carried out in a few cases. A third generation semi...... layer. Performed screening of methane and carbon dioxide concentration at the surface of the biocover showed homogenous distributions indicating an even gas distribution. This was supported by result from a performed tracer test where the compound HFC-134a was added to the gas inlet over a 12 day period...

The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

2013-01-01

The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

Cost-effective and robust mitigation of space debris in low earth orbit

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, R.; Martin, C.

It is predicted that the space debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) will continue to grow and in an exponential manner in the long-term due to an increasing rate of collisions between large objects, unless internationally-accepted space debris mitigation measures are adopted soon. Such measures are aimed at avoiding the future generation of space debris objects and primarily need to be effective in preventing significant long-term growth in the debris population, even in the potential scenario of an increase in future space activity. It is also important that mitigation measures can limit future debris population levels, and therefore the underlying collision risk to space missions, to the lowest extent possible. However, for their wide acceptance, the cost of implementation associated with mitigation measures needs to be minimised as far as possible. Generally, a lower collision risk will cost more to achieve and vice versa, so it is necessary to strike a balance between cost and risk in order to find a cost-effective set of mitigation measures. In this paper, clear criteria are established in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of space debris mitigation measures. A full cost-risk-benefit trade-off analysis of numerous mitigation scenarios is presented. These scenarios consider explosion prevention and post-mission disposal of space systems, including de-orbiting to limited lifetime orbits and re-orbiting above the LEO region. The ESA DELTA model is used to provide long-term debris environment projections for these scenarios as input to the benefit and risk parts of the trade-off analysis. Manoeuvre requirements for the different post-mission disposal scenarios were also calculated in order to define the cost-related element. A 25-year post-mission lifetime de-orbit policy, combined with explosion prevention and mission-related object limitation, was found to be the most cost-effective solution to the space debris problem in LEO. This package would also

Nutrient pollution mitigation measures across Europe are resilient under future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Andrew; Skeffington, Richard; Couture, Raoul; Erlandsson, Martin; Groot, Simon; Halliday, Sarah; Harezlak, Valesca; Hejzlar, Joseph; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Lepistö, Ahti; Papastergiadou, Eva; Psaltopoulos, Demetrios; Riera, Joan; Rankinen, Katri; Skuras, Dimitris; Trolle, Dennis; Whitehead, Paul; Dunn, Sarah; Bucak, Tuba

2016-04-01

The key results from the application of catchment-scale biophysical models to assess the likely effectiveness of nutrient pollution mitigation measures set in the context of projected land management and climate change are presented. The assessment is based on the synthesis of modelled outputs of daily river flow, river and lake nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and lake chlorophyll-a, for baseline (1981-2010) and scenario (2031-2060) periods for nine study sites across Europe. Together the nine sites represent a sample of key climate and land management types. The robustness and uncertainty in the daily, seasonal and long-term modelled outputs was assessed prior to the scenario runs. Credible scenarios of land-management changes were provided by social scientists and economists familiar with each study site, whilst likely mitigation measures were derived from local stakeholder consultations and cost-effectiveness assessments. Modelled mitigation options were able to reduce nutrient concentrations, and there was no evidence here that they were less effective under future climate. With less certainty, mitigation options could affect the ecological status of waters at these sites in a positive manner, leading to improvement in Water Framework Directive status at some sites. However, modelled outcomes for sites in southern Europe highlighted that increased evaporation and decreased precipitation will cause much lower flows leading to adverse impacts of river and lake ecology. Uncertainties in the climate models, as represented by three GCM-RCM combinations, did not affect this overall picture much.

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

2015-01-01

Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from China's cities: Case study of Suzhou

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hongsheng; Wang, Yunxia; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Miaomiao; Zhang, Yanxia; Zhang, Rongrong; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the factors driving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is crucial to mitigating China's anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, the main drivers increasing GHG emissions from the Chinese city of Suzhou between 2005 and 2010 were identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Kaya identity and the log-mean Divisia index method. We found that economy and population were the major drivers of GHG emissions in Suzhou, having contributed 162.20% and 109.04%, respectively, to the increase in emissions. A decline in carbon intensity, which was caused by the declining energy intensity and an adjustment to the mixture of power and industrial structures, was the major determinant and accounted for a reduction of 171.24% in GHG emissions. Slowing and maintaining healthy growth rates of economy and population could be the primary and most effective means if Suzhou tries to curb the total emissions over the short term. It may be more realistic for Suzhou to control emissions by optimizing the economic structure for low-carbon industrial development because of the city's relative high energy requirements and low potential to mitigate GHGs by adjusting the energy mixture. - Highlights: • Per capita carbon emissions in Suzhou kept stable at 15 tons/year during period 2005–2010. • Slowing down growth rates of GDP and population could effectively control Suzhou's emissions. • Low carbon development policies were also recommended for other Chinese cities

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

2007-01-01

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

A meta-analysis of the greenhouse gas abatement of bioenergy factoring in land use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

El Akkari, M; Réchauchère, O; Bispo, A; Gabrielle, B; Makowski, D

2018-06-04

Non-food biomass production is developing rapidly to fuel the bioenergy sector and substitute dwindling fossil resources, which is likely to impact land-use patterns worldwide. Recent publications attempting to factor this effect into the climate mitigation potential of bioenergy chains have come to widely variable conclusions depending on their scope, data sources or methodology. Here, we conducted a first of its kind, systematic review of scientific literature on this topic and derived quantitative trends through a meta-analysis. We showed that second-generation biofuels and bioelectricity have a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement potential than first generation biofuels, and stand the best chances (with a 80 to 90% probability range) of achieving a 50% reduction compared to fossil fuels. Conversely, directly converting forest ecosystems to produce bioenergy feedstock appeared as the worst-case scenario, systematically leading to negative GHG savings. On the other hand, converting grassland appeared to be a better option and entailed a 60% chance of halving GHG emissions compared to fossil energy sources. Since most climate mitigation scenarios assume still larger savings, it is critical to gain better insight into land-use change effects to provide a more realistic estimate of the mitigation potential associated with bioenergy.

Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin-Gorriz, B.; Soto-García, M.; Martínez-Alvarez, V.

2014-01-01

Global warming is leading to a water resources decrease in the Mediterranean basin, where future farming resilience depends on incorporating alternative water sources and improving water-energy use efficiency. This paper assesses water and energy consumption when natural water sources are partially replaced by desalinated sea water. Initially, energy consumption, water supply and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions were recorded for the current farming practices in SE (southeast) Spain. The results of our study indicate that citrus orchards have the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions. Annual vegetables were the least energy efficient crops. Subsequently, two alternative water supply scenarios were analysed, in which the reduction of natural water resources associated to climate change was compensated with desalinated sea water. The use of 16.8% of desalinated seawater would increase energy consumption by 32.4% and GHG emissions by 19.6%, whereas for the use of 26.5% of desalinated seawater such increases would amount to 50.0% and 30.3%, respectively. Therefore maintaining irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions by incorporating high energy demanding non-traditional water sources could negatively contribute to combat global warming. - Highlights: • Water supply, energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in irrigated agriculture are very connected. • The use of desalinated sea water will increase the energy consumption, and GHG emissions will rise. • The use of non-traditional water resources enhances global warming processes. • Citrus orchards are the less sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios. • Artichoke is the most sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Use of gas-phase ethanol to mitigate extreme UV/water oxidation of extreme UV optics

Science.gov (United States)

Klebanoff, L. E.; Malinowski, M. E.; Clift, W. M.; Steinhaus, C.; Grunow, P.

2004-03-01

A technique is described that uses a gas-phase species to mitigate the oxidation of a Mo/Si multilayer optic caused by either extreme UV (EUV) or electron-induced dissociation of adsorbed water vapor. It is found that introduction of ethanol (EtOH) into a water-rich gas-phase environment inhibits oxidation of the outermost Si layer of the Mo/Si EUV reflective coating. Auger electron spectroscopy, sputter Auger depth profiling, EUV reflectivity, and photocurrent measurements are presented that reveal the EUV/water- and electron/water-derived optic oxidation can be suppressed at the water partial pressures used in the tests (~2×10-7-2×10-5 Torr). The ethanol appears to function differently in two time regimes. At early times, ethanol decomposes on the optic surface, providing reactive carbon atoms that scavenge reactive oxygen atoms before they can oxidize the outermost Si layer. At later times, the reactive carbon atoms form a thin (~5 Å), possibly self-limited, graphitic layer that inhibits water adsorption on the optic surface. .

The future of gas infrastructures in Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klaassen, Ger; McDonald, Alan; Jimin Zhao

2001-01-01

The IIASA-WEC study global energy perspectives emphasized trends toward cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient final energy forms, delivered chiefly by energy grids, and noted potential energy infrastructure deficiencies in Eurasia. We compare planned interregional gas pipelines and LNG terminals in Eurasia with the study's projected trade flows for 2020. We focus on the study's three high-growth scenarios and single middle course scenario. The comparison indicates that high gas consumption in a scenario need not imply high gas trade. For the former Soviet Union, a robust strategy across all six scenarios is to implement existing plans and proposals for expanding gas export capacity. For Eastern Europe, significant import capacity expansions beyond current plans and proposals are needed in all but the middle course scenario. Western European plans and proposals need to be increased only in two high gas consumption scenarios. Planned and proposed capacities for the Middle East (exports) and centrally planned Asia (imports) most closely match a high gas trade scenario, but are otherwise excessive. Paradoxically, for the Pacific OECD, more short-term import capacity is needed in scenarios with low gas consumption than in high-consumption scenarios. For Southeast Asia, proposed import capacities are significantly higher than scenario trade projections. (Author)

Numerical simulation studies of gas production scenarios from hydrate accumulations at the Mallik Site, McKenzie Delta, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moridis, George J.; Collett, Timothy S.; Dallimore, Scott R.; Satoh, Tohru; Hancock, Stephen; Weatherill, Brian

2002-01-01

The Mallik site represents an onshore permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulation in the Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada. An 1150 m deep gas hydrate research well was drilled at the site in 1998. The objective of this study is the analysis of various gas production scenarios from several gas-hydrate-bearing zones at the Mallik site. The TOUGH2 general-purpose simulator with the EOSHYDR2 module were used for the analysis. EOSHYDR2 is designed to model the non-isothermal CH(sub 4) (methane) release, phase behavior and flow under conditions typical of methane-hydrate deposits by solving the coupled equations of mass and heat balance, and can describe any combination of gas hydrate dissociation mechanisms. Numerical simulations indicated that significant gas hydrate production at the Mallik site was possible by drawing down the pressure on a thin free-gas zone at the base of the hydrate stability field. Gas hydrate zones with underlying aquifers yielded significant gas production entirely from dissociated gas hydrate, but large amounts of produced water. Lithologically isolated gas-hydrate-bearing reservoirs with no underlying free gas or water zones, and gas-hydrate saturations of at least 50% were also studied. In these cases, it was assumed that thermal stimulation by circulating hot water in the well was the method used to induce dissociation. Sensitivity studies indicated that the methane release from the hydrate accumulations increases with gas-hydrate saturation, the initial formation temperature, the temperature of the circulating water in the well, and the formation thermal conductivity. Methane production appears to be less sensitive to the rock and hydrate specific heat and permeability of the formation

Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

2010-01-29

Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China. Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID, driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-01-01

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xia, Longlong [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Ti, Chaopu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Li, Bolun [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Xia, Yongqiu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Xiaoyuan, E-mail: yanxy@issas.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

2016-06-15

Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO{sub 2-NEB} and Nr{sub -NEB}), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH{sub 4} emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH{sub 4} emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH{sub 3} volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404–701) Tg CO{sub 2} eq GHG and 10 (7.4–12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001–2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70–555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7 Tg CO{sub 2} eq yr{sup −1} and 2.2 Tg Nr-N yr{sup −1} could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize

Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, Longlong; Ti, Chaopu; Li, Bolun; Xia, Yongqiu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-01-01

Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO 2-NEB and Nr -NEB ), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH 4 emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH 4 emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH 3 volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404–701) Tg CO 2 eq GHG and 10 (7.4–12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001–2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70–555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7 Tg CO 2 eq yr −1 and 2.2 Tg Nr-N yr −1 could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize farmers to gradually adopt knowledge

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Country-Level Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Liquefied Natural Gas Trade for Electricity Generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasumu, Adebola S; Li, Vivian; Coleman, James W; Liendo, Jeanne; Jordaan, Sarah M

2018-02-20

In the determination of the net impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on greenhouse gas emissions, life cycle assessments (LCA) of electricity generation have yet to combine the effects of transport distances between exporting and importing countries, country-level infrastructure in importing countries, and the fuel sources displaced in importing countries. To address this, we conduct a LCA of electricity generated from LNG export from British Columbia, Canada with a three-step approach: (1) a review of viable electricity generation markets for LNG, (2) the development of results for greenhouse gas emissions that account for transport to importing nations as well as the infrastructure required for power generation and delivery, and (3) emissions displacement scenarios to test assumptions about what electricity is being displaced in the importing nation. Results show that while the ultimate magnitude of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas production systems is still unknown, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions depend on country-level infrastructure (specifically, the efficiency of the generation fleet, transmission and distribution losses and LNG ocean transport distances) as well as the assumptions on what is displaced in the domestic electricity generation mix. Exogenous events such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster have unanticipated effects on the emissions displacement results. We highlight national regulations, environmental policies, and multilateral agreements that could play a role in mitigating emissions.

Emerging Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies for the Pulp and Paper Industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kong, Lingbo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2012-11-01

The pulp and paper industry ranks fourth in terms of energy consumption among industries worldwide. Globally, the pulp and paper industry accounted for approximately 5 percent of total world industrial final energy consumption in 2007, and contributed 2 percent of direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industry. Worldwide pulp and paper demand and production are projected to increase significantly by 2050, leading to an increase in this industry’s absolute energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Development of new energy-efficiency and GHG mitigation technologies and their deployment in the market will be crucial for the pulp and paper industry’s mid- and long-term climate change mitigation strategies. This report describes the industry’s processes and compiles available information on the energy savings, environmental and other benefits, costs, commercialization status, and references for 36 emerging technologies to reduce the industry’s energy use and GHG emissions. Although studies from around the world identify a variety of sector-specific and cross-cutting energy-efficiency technologies that have already been commercialized for the pulp and paper industry, information is scarce and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy-efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet commercialized. The purpose of this report is to provide engineers, researchers, investors, paper companies, policy makers, and other interested parties with easy access to a well-structured resource of information on these technologies.

The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal

Science.gov (United States)

Boysen, Lena R.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Lenton, Timothy M.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-05-01

Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying "well below 2°C" global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature "overshoot" in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to "repair" delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5°C or even 4.5°C above pre-industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract "business-as-usual" emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires >1.1 Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of >50% of natural forests. In addition, >100 MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320 GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160-190 GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2°C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe trade-offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that large-scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable "supporting actor" for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately.

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

2010-02-15

In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Longlong; Ti, Chaopu; Li, Bolun; Xia, Yongqiu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-06-15

Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO2-NEB and Nr-NEB), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH4 emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH4 emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH3 volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404-701) TgCO2eqGHG and 10 (7.4-12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001-2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70-555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7TgCO2eqyr(-1) and 2.2TgNr-Nyr(-1) could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize farmers to gradually adopt knowledge-based managements. Copyright © 2016

The role of technology and policy in mitigating regional nitrogen pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu Baojing; Zhu Yimei; Chang Jie; Liu Dong; Min Yong; Ge Ying; Peng Changhui; Luo Weidong; Howarth, Robert W

2011-01-01

Human activity greatly influences nitrogen (N) pollution in urbanized and adjacent areas. We comprehensively studied the N cycling in an urban-rural complex system, the Greater Hangzhou Area (GHA) in southeastern China. Our results indicated that subsurface N accumulation doubled, riverine N export tripled and atmospheric N pollutants increased 2.5 times within the GHA from 1980-2004. Agriculture was the largest N pollution source to air and water before 2000, whereas industry and human living gradually became the primary N pollution sources with the socioeconomic development. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we developed a scenario analysis to quantify the effects of technology and policy on environmental N dynamics. The fertilization reduction scenario suggested that the groundwater N pollution could decrease by 17% with less than a 5% reduction in crop production; the N effluent standard revision scenario led to a surface water N pollution reduction of 45%; the constructed wetlands implementation scenario could reduce surface water pollution by 43%-64%. Lastly, the technological improvement scenario mitigated atmospheric N pollution by 65%. Technologies play a key role in atmospheric N pollution control, policies mainly contribute to groundwater N pollution control, while technology and policy both work on surface water N mitigation within an urban-rural complex.

Climate impact of potential shale gas production in the EU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forster, D.; Perks, J. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom)

2012-07-15

Existing estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas production and available abatement options were used to obtain improved estimates of emissions from possible shale gas exploitation in the EU. GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated from shale gas were estimated to be around 4 to 8% higher than for electricity generated by conventional pipeline gas from within Europe. These additional emissions arise in the pre-combustion stage, predominantly in the well completion phase when the fracturing fluid is brought back to the surface together with released methane. If emissions from well completion are mitigated, through flaring or capture, and utilised, then this difference is reduced to 1 to 5%. The analysis suggests that the emissions from shale gas-based power generation (base case) are 2 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from sources of conventional pipeline gas located outside of Europe (in Russia and Algeria), and 7 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from LNG imported into Europe. However, under our 'worst case' shale gas scenario, where all flow back gases at well completion are vented, emissions from electricity generated from shale gas would be similar to the upper emissions level for electricity generated from imported LNG and for gas imported from Russia.

Climate impact of potential shale gas production in the EU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forster, D.; Perks, J. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom)

2012-07-15

Existing estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas production and available abatement options were used to obtain improved estimates of emissions from possible shale gas exploitation in the EU. GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated from shale gas were estimated to be around 4 to 8% higher than for electricity generated by conventional pipeline gas from within Europe. These additional emissions arise in the pre-combustion stage, predominantly in the well completion phase when the fracturing fluid is brought back to the surface together with released methane. If emissions from well completion are mitigated, through flaring or capture, and utilised, then this difference is reduced to 1 to 5%. The analysis suggests that the emissions from shale gas-based power generation (base case) are 2 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from sources of conventional pipeline gas located outside of Europe (in Russia and Algeria), and 7 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from LNG imported into Europe. However, under our 'worst case' shale gas scenario, where all flow back gases at well completion are vented, emissions from electricity generated from shale gas would be similar to the upper emissions level for electricity generated from imported LNG and for gas imported from Russia.

Mitigation of Transient Overvoltages Generated Due to Switching Operations and Lightning in Gas-insulated Substation (GIS Without Extra Limiter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Tavakoli

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Gas-insulated substations (GIS have different specifications in proportion to air-insulated substations. Transformer failures related to lightning and switching are often reported in the gas insulated substation (GIS. This problem is the voltage magnifications due to reflections of switching and lightning surges at various junctions within the GIS. thereby overvoltages in GIS are more important than air-insulated substation. There are methods to suppress the stresses created by lightning and switching. However, these methods are suitable before installing the substation and during the substation design period. This paper presents feasible methods for mitigation of the overvoltage magnitude. The advantages of the proposed methods are their simplicity and low cost for implantation along with producing minimal changes in the installed GIS.

Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark: 1. System design and gas distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cassini, Filippo; Scheutz, Charlotte; Skov, Bent Henning

2017-01-01

Greenhouse gas mitigation at landfills by methane oxidation in engineered biocover systems is believed to be a cost effective technology, but so far a full quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the technology in full scale has only been carried out in a few cases. A third generation semi-p...

Mitigating for nature in Danish infrastructure projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Christensen, Per

2015-01-01

his paper presents results of a Danish study of mitigation efforts directed at nature protection in EIA of Danish infrastructure projects. The projects included in the study comprise road, rail, bridges, tunnels cables and oil- and gas-pipes. The study is based on a document analysis of EIA reports......, a workshop held with EIA professionals, a study of two cases and a survey among EIA professionals. The study reveals whether and how the mitigation hierarchy has been adhered to and what types of mitigation measures have been suggested. The study digs a bit deeper in discussing the dynamics in which...

Energy efficiency and CO_2 mitigation potential of the Turkish iron and steel industry using the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ates, Seyithan A.

2015-01-01

With the assistance of the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) energy modeling tool, this study explores the energy efficiency and CO_2 emission reduction potential of the iron and steel industry in Turkey. With a share of 35%, the steel and iron industry is considered as the most energy-consuming sector in Turkey. The study explores that the energy intensity rate can be lowered by 13%, 38% and 51% in SEI (slow-speed energy efficiency improvement), AEI (accelerating energy efficiency improvement) and CPT (cleaner production and technology scenario) scenarios, respectively. Particularly the projected aggregated energy savings of the scenarios CPT and AES are very promising with saving rates of 33.7% and 23% respectively. Compared to baseline scenarios, energy efficiency improvements correspond to economic potential of 0.1 billion dollars for SEI, 1.25 dollars for AEI and 1.8 billion dollars for CPT scenarios annually. Concerning GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, in 2030 the iron and steel industry in Turkey is estimated to produce 34.9 MtCO_2 in BAU (business-as-usual scenario), 32.5 MtCO_2 in SEI, 24.6 MtCO_2 in AEI and 14.5 MtCO_2 in CPT a scenario which corresponds to savings of 9%–39%. The study reveals that energy consumption and GHG emissions of the iron and steel industry can be lowered significantly if the necessary measures are implemented. It is expected that this study will fill knowledge gaps pertaining to energy efficiency potential in Turkish energy intensive industries and help stakeholders in energy intensive industries to realize the potential for energy efficiency and GHG mitigation. - Highlights: • This paper explores energy efficiency potential of iron and Steel industry in Turkey. • We applied the LEAP modeling to forecast future developments. • Four different scenarios have been developed for the LEAP modeling. • There is a huge potential for energy efficiency and mitigation of GHG emissions.

EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilli, Roberto; Fiorese, Giulia; Grassi, Giacomo

2015-12-01

The new rules for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector under the Kyoto Protocol recognized the importance of Harvested Wood Products (HWP) in climate change mitigation. We used the Tier 2 method proposed in the 2013 IPCC KP Supplement to estimate emissions and removals from HWP from 1990 to 2030 in EU-28 countries with three future harvest scenarios (constant historical average, and +/-20% in 2030). For the historical period (2000-2012) our results are consistent with other studies, indicating a HWP sink equal on average to -44.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (about 10% of the sink by forest pools). Assuming a constant historical harvest scenario and future distribution of the total harvest among each commodity, the HWP sink decreases to -22.9 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030. The increasing and decreasing harvest scenarios produced a HWP sink of -43.2 and -9.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030, respectively. Other factors may play an important role on HWP sink, including: (i) the relative share of different wood products, and (ii) the combined effect of production, import and export on the domestic production of each commodity. Maintaining a constant historical harvest, the HWP sink will slowly tend to saturate, i.e. to approach zero in the long term. The current HWP sink will be maintained only by further increasing the current harvest; however, this will tend to reduce the current sink in forest biomass, at least in the short term. Overall, our results suggest that: (i) there is limited potential for additional HWP sink in the EU; (ii) the HWP mitigation potential should be analyzed in conjunction with other mitigation components (e.g. sink in forest biomass, energy and material substitution by wood).

Assessment of GHG mitigation and CDM technology in urban transport sector of Chandigarh, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhargava, Nitin; Gurjar, Bhola Ram; Mor, Suman; Ravindra, Khaiwal

2018-01-01

The increase in number of vehicles in metropolitan cities has resulted in increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban environment. In this study, emission load of GHGs (CO, N 2 O, CO 2 ) from Chandigarh road transport sector has been estimated using Vehicular Air Pollution Inventory (VAPI) model, which uses emission factors prevalent in Indian cities. Contribution of 2-wheelers (2-w), 3-wheelers (3-w), cars, buses, and heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) to CO, N 2 O, CO 2 , and total GHG emissions was calculated. Potential for GHG mitigation through clean development mechanism (CDM) in transport sector of Chandigarh under two scenarios, i.e., business as usual (BAU) and best estimate scenario (BES) using VAPI model, has been explored. A major contribution of GHG load (~ 50%) in Chandigarh was from four-wheelers until 2011; however, it shows a declining trend after 2011 until 2020. The estimated GHG emission from motor vehicles in Chandigarh has increased more than two times from 1065 Gg in 2005 to 2486 Gg by 2011 and is expected to increase to 4014 Gg by 2020 under BAU scenario. Under BES scenario, 30% of private transport has been transformed to public transport; GHG load was possibly reduced by 520 Gg. An increase of 173 Gg in GHGs load is projected from additional scenario (ADS) in Chandigarh city if all the diesel buses are transformed to CNG buses by 2020. Current study also offers potential for other cities to plan better GHG reduction strategies in transport sector to reduce their climate change impacts.

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Christov, Christo

1996-01-01

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987 1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO2 emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

Comparison of turbulence mitigation algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Kozacik, Stephen T.; Paolini, Aaron; Sherman, Ariel; Bonnett, James; Kelmelis, Eric

2017-07-01

When capturing imagery over long distances, atmospheric turbulence often degrades the data, especially when observation paths are close to the ground or in hot environments. These issues manifest as time-varying scintillation and warping effects that decrease the effective resolution of the sensor and reduce actionable intelligence. In recent years, several image processing approaches to turbulence mitigation have shown promise. Each of these algorithms has different computational requirements, usability demands, and degrees of independence from camera sensors. They also produce different degrees of enhancement when applied to turbulent imagery. Additionally, some of these algorithms are applicable to real-time operational scenarios while others may only be suitable for postprocessing workflows. EM Photonics has been developing image-processing-based turbulence mitigation technology since 2005. We will compare techniques from the literature with our commercially available, real-time, GPU-accelerated turbulence mitigation software. These comparisons will be made using real (not synthetic), experimentally obtained data for a variety of conditions, including varying optical hardware, imaging range, subjects, and turbulence conditions. Comparison metrics will include image quality, video latency, computational complexity, and potential for real-time operation. Additionally, we will present a technique for quantitatively comparing turbulence mitigation algorithms using real images of radial resolution targets.

Costs of radon diagnostics and mitigation in school building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leovic, K.W.; Rector, H.; Nagda, N.

1992-01-01

To determine the costs of radon diagnostics and active soil depressurization (ASD) system installation in schools, seven radon mitigators with extensive experience in school buildings were surveyed. The cost data were determined by providing the mitigators with two scenarios of open-quotes typicalclose quotes school buildings with elevated radon levels. The questionnaire in schools: (1) Review Construction Plans, (2) Conduct Diagnostic Measurements, (3) Design Mitigation System, (4) Purchase ASD Material, and (5) Install and Checkout ASD System. Based on the results of this survey, it is estimated that the average cost of ASD diagnostics and mitigation in a typical school would be roughly $0.50 per ft 2 . However, these costs would be higher in schools with extensive subslab walls, very poor PFE, and lower in simple schools with very good PFE and no subslab barriers to communication. The variations in costs provided by the mitigators are primarily due to the influences of (1) experience and practices of the mitigation companies, (2) ASD system requirements as perceived by the respondents, and (3) the degree of involvement by the school system in the process

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann; Sander, Bjoern Ole; de Neergaard, Andreas

2018-01-15

Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation in rice production. Whereas several studies have focused on mid-season drainage (MD) to mitigate GHG emissions, early-season drainage (ED) varying in timing and duration has not been extensively studied. However, such ED periods could potentially be very effective since initial available C levels (and thereby the potential for methanogenesis) can be very high in paddy systems with rice straw incorporation. This study tested the effectiveness of seven drainage regimes varying in their timing and duration (combinations of ED and MD) to mitigate CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in a 101-day growth chamber experiment. Emissions were considerably reduced by early-season drainage compared to both conventional continuous flooding (CF) and the MD drainage regime. The results suggest that ED+MD drainage may have the potential to reduce CH 4 emissions and yield-scaled GWP by 85-90% compared to CF and by 75-77% compared to MD only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH 4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (pemissions were small and not significantly affected by ED. It is concluded that ED+MD drainage might be an effective low-tech option for small-scale farmers to reduce GHG emissions and save water while maintaining yield. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change mitigation in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Bo

2012-07-01

China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentham, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Greenhouse gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land use change and fertilization scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castanheira, Érica Geraldes; Acevedo, Helmer; Freire, Fausto

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A comprehensive evaluation of alternative LUC and fertilization schemes. • The GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. • Colombian palm area expansion resulted in negative or low palm oil GHG intensity. • GHG emissions from plantation vary significantly with N 2 O emission parameters. - Abstract: The main goal of this article is to assess the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of palm oil produced in a specific plantation and mill in Colombia. A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of alternative land use change (LUC) scenarios (forest, shrubland, savanna and cropland conversion) and fertilization schemes (four synthetic and one organic nitrogen-fertilizer) was performed. A sensitivity analysis to field nitrous oxide emission calculation, biogas management options at mill, time horizon considered for global warming and multifunctionality approach were also performed. The results showed that the GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. Significant differences were observed between the LUC scenarios (−3.0 to 5.3 kg CO 2 eq kg −1 palm oil). The highest result is obtained if tropical rainforest is converted and the lowest if palm is planted on previous cropland, savanna and shrubland, in which almost all LUC from Colombian oil palm area expansion occurred between 1990 and 2009. Concerning plantation and oil extraction, it was shown that field nitrous oxide emissions and biogas management options have a high influence on GHG emissions

Assessing the health benefits of urban air pollution reductions associated with climate change mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago, São Paulo, México City, and New York City.

Science.gov (United States)

Cifuentes, L; Borja-Aburto, V H; Gouveia, N; Thurston, G; Davis, D L

2001-06-01

To investigate the potential local health benefits of adopting greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, we develop scenarios of GHG mitigation for México City, México; Santiago, Chile; São Paulo, Brazil; and New York, New York, USA using air pollution health impact factors appropriate to each city. We estimate that the adoption of readily available technologies to lessen fossil fuel emissions over the next two decades in these four cities alone will reduce particulate matter and ozone and avoid approximately 64,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 18,000-116,000) premature deaths (including infant deaths), 65,000 (95% CI 22,000-108,000) chronic bronchitis cases, and 46 million (95% CI 35-58 million) person-days of work loss or other restricted activity. These findings illustrate that GHG mitigation can provide considerable local air pollution-related public health benefits to countries that choose to abate GHG emissions by reducing fossil fuel combustion.

Biochars mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and bioaccumulation of potentially toxic elements and arsenic speciation in Phaseolus vulgaris L.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Muhammad; Li, Gang; Khan, Sardar; Chi, Qiaoqiao; Xu, Yaoyang; Zhu, Yongguan

2017-08-01

Anthropogenic and natural activities can lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and discharge of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) into soil environment. Biochar amendment to soils is a cost-effective technology and sustainable approach used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, improve phytoremediation, and minimize the health risks associated with consumption of PTE-contaminated vegetables. Greenhouse pot experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of peanut shell biochar (PNB) and sewage sludge biochar (SSB) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, plant growth, PTE bioaccumulation, and arsenic (As) speciation in bean plants. Results indicated that amendments of PNB and SSB increased plant biomass production by increasing soil fertility and reducing bioavailability of PTEs. Addition of biochars also increased soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and ammonium-nitrogen (NH 4 -N) but decreased available concentrations of PTEs such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and As. The concentration of nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 - -N) was also decreased in biochar-amended soils. In addition, PNB and SSB amendments significantly (P Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions were significantly (P greenhouse gas emissions and PTE bioaccumulation as well as arsenic speciation in P. vulgaris L.

Quantifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Methane Emissions from Super-emitters in the Oil and Gas Supply Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, David Richard

Methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) supply chain reduce potential climate benefits of natural gas as a replacement for other fossil fuels that emit more carbon dioxide per energy produced. O&G facilities have skewed emission rate distributions with a small fraction of sites contributing the majority of emissions. Knowledge of the identity and cause of these high emission facilities, referred to as super-emitters or fat-tail sources, is critical for reducing supply chain emissions. This dissertation addresses the quantification of super-emitter emissions, assessment of their prevalence and relationship to site characteristics, and mitigation with continuous leak detection systems. Chapter 1 summarizes the state of the knowledge of O&G methane emissions. Chapter 2 constructs a spatially-resolved emission inventory to estimate total and O&G methane emissions in the Barnett Shale as part of a coordinated research campaign using multiple top-down and bottom-up methods to quantify emissions. The emission inventory accounts for super-emitters with two-phase Monte Carlo simulations that combine site measurements collected with two approaches: unbiased sampling and targeted sampling of super-emitters. More comprehensive activity data and the inclusion of super-emitters, which account for 19% of O&G emissions, produces a emission inventory that is not statistically different than top-down regional emission estimates. Chapter 3 describes a helicopter-based survey of over 8,000 well pads in seven basins with infrared optical gas imaging to assess high emission sources. Four percent of sites are observed to have high emissions with over 90% of observed sources from tanks. The occurrence of high emissions is weakly correlated to site parameters and the best statistical model explains only 14% of variance, which demonstrates that the occurrence of super-emitters is primarily stochastic. Chapter 4 presents a Gaussian dispersion model for optimizing the placement of

Botswana country study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Peter [EECG Consultants, Gaborone (Botswana)

1998-10-01

The project analysed the baseline economic, energy development and greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, and abatement costing of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation options in the energy sector of Botswana. The analysis period for both the baseline and mitigation scenarios is up to 2030 with the short term stretching from 1994 to 2005 and the long term up to 2030. There is a relatively significant potential to reduce GHG emissions in the energy system of Botswana by applying a number of mitigation options. The potential in by applying a set of 21 mitigation options analysed in this study was found to be about 28.7% in 2005 and 26.1% in 2030. (EG)

Botswana country study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Peter

1998-01-01

The project analysed the baseline economic, energy development and greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, and abatement costing of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation options in the energy sector of Botswana. The analysis period for both the baseline and mitigation scenarios is up to 2030 with the short term stretching from 1994 to 2005 and the long term up to 2030. There is a relatively significant potential to reduce GHG emissions in the energy system of Botswana by applying a number of mitigation options. The potential in by applying a set of 21 mitigation options analysed in this study was found to be about 28.7% in 2005 and 26.1% in 2030. (EG)

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in China's agriculture: from farm production to food consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Qian; Cheng, Kun; Pan, Genxing

2016-04-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture could be mitigated from both supple side and demand side. Assessing carbon footprint (CF) of agricultural production and food consumption could provide insights into the contribution of agriculture to climate change and help to identify possible GHG mitigation options. In the present study, CF of China's agricultural production was firstly assessed from site scale to national scale, and from crop production to livestock production. Data for the crop and livestock production were collected from field survey and national statistical archive, and both life cycle assessment and input-output method were employed in the estimations. In general, CF of crop production was lower than that of livestock production on average. Rice production ranked the highest CF in crop production, and the highest CFs of livestock production were observed in mutton and beef production. Methane emissions from rice paddy, emissions from fertilizer application and water irrigation exerted the largest contribution of more than 50% for CF of crop production; however, emissions from forage feeding, enteric fermentation and manure treatment made the most proportion of more than 90 % for CF of livestock production. In China, carbon efficiency was shown in a decreasing trend in recent years. According to the present study, overuse of nitrogen fertilizer caused no yield effect but significant emissions in some sites and regions of China, and aggregated farms lowered the CFs of crop production and livestock production by 3% to 25% and 6% to 60% respectively compared to household farms. Given these, improving farming management efficiency and farm intensive development is the key strategy to mitigate climate change from supply side. However, changes in food consumption may reduce GHG emissions in the production chain through a switch to the consumption of food with higher GHG emissions in the production process to food with lower GHG emissions. Thus, CFs

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Mitigation: cross-sectoral and other issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leemans, R. [National Inst. of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands). Coordination Center for Effects

1996-12-31

Measures, methodologies and technologies to reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed in this paper, together with other options for limiting anthropogenic climatic change and consequences. This chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II`s 1996 report discusses the cross-sectorial potential for reducing emissions between areas discussed specifically in other chapters namely energy supply, industry, transportation, human settlements, agriculture and forestry, aiming to provide an integrated analysis of mitigation options with cross-cutting themes. Energy supply and demand issues within a low GHG emissions scenario are discussed as are issues relating to land use and land cover. Broadly-based concepts for counterbalancing climatic change are described and their mitigation potential assessed. (UK)

Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

2005-02-01

This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

1994-01-01

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

2010-01-01

An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-12-01

This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program

Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-12-01

This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program.

Re-Industrialisation and Low-Carbon Economy—Can They Go Together? Results from Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North Rhine Westphalia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Lechtenböhmer

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL. This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050 mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage. All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of “re-industrialisation” for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050, would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC and the carbon capture and storage (CCS scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry—such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS—if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Database and Tool - Data repository of GHG mitigation technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Industry and electricity production facilities generate over 50 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. There is a growing consensus among scientists that the primary cause of climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emi...

Mitigation of hydrogen hazards in water cooled power reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-02-01

Past considerations of hydrogen generated in containment buildings have tended to focus attention on design basis accidents (DBAs) where the extent of the in-core metal-water reaction is limited at low values by the operation of the emergency core cooling systems (ECCS). The radiolysis of water in the core and in the containment sump, together with the possible corrosion of metals and paints in the containment, are all relatively slow processes. Therefore, in DBAs the time scale involved for the generation of hydrogen allows sufficient time for initiation of measures to control the amount of hydrogen in the containment atmosphere and to prevent any burning. Provisions have been made in most plants to keep the local hydrogen concentration below its flammability limit (4% of volume) by means of mixing devices and thermal recombiners. Severe accidents, involving large scale core degradation and possibly even core concrete interactions, raise the possibility of hydrogen release rates greatly exceeding the capacity of conventional DBA hydrogen control measures. The accident at Three Mile Island illustrated the potential of unmitigated hydrogen accumulation to escalate the potential consequences of a severe accident. In a severe accident scenario, local high hydrogen concentrations can be reached in a short time, leading to flammable gas mixtures in containment. Another possibility is that local high steam concentrations will initially create an inert atmosphere and prevent burning for a limited time. While such temporary inerting provides additional time for mixing (dilution) of the hydrogen with containment air, depending on the quantity of hydrogen released, it prevents early intervention by deliberate ignition and sets up conditions for more severe combustion hazards after steam condensation eventually occurs, e.g., by spray initiation or the long term cooling down of the containment atmosphere. As the foregoing example indicates, analysis of the hydrogen threat in

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

Science.gov (United States)

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the

The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

2004-01-01

Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

The mitigation effect of configuration and context optimization of urban holdings on heat island

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Y P; Yu, D Y; Xun, B

2014-01-01

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a serious problem in recent years. It is necessary to study the mitigation methods and quantify their effects on UHI. In this paper, based on the remote sensed data, an empirical model was established as a negative function of land surface temperature (LST) to vegetation coverage. Urban heat island intensity (UHII) was estimated by a robust statistic algorithm. Compared with the current condition (vegetation coverage equaling to 0%), five high vegetation coverage building scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%) were designed to explore mitigation effects on UHI separately. The results showed that the mean LST increase by about 0.5°C when vegetation coverage decrease by 0.1. UHII has a considerable decrease when the scenarios of vegetation coverage equaling to 20% and 40%, respectively. The reasonable vegetation configuration is the effective UHI mitigation

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

2007-04-15

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

How well do radon mitigation strategies work?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matson, N.

1992-01-01

Naturally occurring radon in homes can't be completely avoided, but it can be minimized. Indoor air quality researchers compared results of six popular ways to mitigate radon in houses in the Spokane River Valley and New Jersey. Over the course of the past decade, Americans have become aware of the health hazards from radon, a naturally occurring gas that can enter a home through a variety of pathways from the surrounding terrain. Recent research carried out at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) and elsewhere suggests that radon mitigation is feasible but requires long-term monitoring to ensure lasting effectiveness. These studies compare the selection, installation, and performance evaluations of several common radon mitigation strategies

Sectoral Approaches to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This paper explores sectoral approaches as a new set of options to enhance the effectiveness of greenhouse gas reduction policies and to engage emerging economies on a lower emission path. It surveys existing literature and recent policy trends in international climate change discussions, and provides an overview of sectoral approaches and related issues for trade-exposed, greenhouse-gas intensive industries (cement, iron and steel and aluminium). It is also based on interviews conducted by the IEA Secretariat in Australia, China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. Sectoral approaches were also discussed during workshops on technology and energy efficiency policies in industry, following the IEA's mandate under the Gleneagles Plan of Action.

Experiments about the integrity of BWR relief pipes in postulated radiolysis gas combustion. Scenario No.2. Minor steam leakages without any lowering of the water level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedrich, A.; Grune, J.; Sempert, K.; Stern, G.; Kuznetsov, M.; Redlinger, R.; Breitung, W.; Franke, T.

2008-01-01

The experiments described in this article were performed to study this comprehensive radiolysis gas scenario: - The relief pipe is filled completely with radiolysis gas (2H 2 +O 2 ). - After opening of the S and R valve, the radiolysis gas is compressed adiabatically by the incoming steam without mixing. - Roughly at the point of peak pressure in the relief pipe (20 bar) the radiolysis gas ignites. This dynamic scenario was studied in steady-state model experiments with a test pipe which corresponds to the relief pipes installed in KKP-1 in terms of materials, dimensions, and manufacturing control. The initial conditions and boundary conditions of the experiments were conservative. In the course of the tests, the maximum dynamic strain and the residual plastic deformation of the test pipe were measured via the transient detonation load. The maximum dynamic strain measured was 0.75%, the maximum residual plastic strain reached 0.15%. The pipe suffered no other deformation above and beyond this slight plastic strain. The radiolysis gas detonation was simulated very well numerically. Using the calculated pressure loads in a structural dynamics model also showed good agreement with the measured maximum dynamic pipe strains. In this way, the experimental findings were confirmed theoretically. The experiments and the calculations showed that postulated radiolysis gas reactions during pressure relief cannot jeopardize the integrity of the relief pipe. (orig.)

Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

1999-01-01

The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development

Science.gov (United States)

Kirol, Christopher P.; Sutphin, Andrew L.; Bond, Laura S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Maechtle, Thomas L.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush Artemisia spp. habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species — including the greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA, and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5-km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Mitigation of methane emission from an old unlined landfill in Klintholm, Denmark using a passive biocover system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheutz, Charlotte; Pedersen, Rasmus Broe; Petersen, Per Haugsted; Jørgensen, Jørgen Henrik Bjerre; Ucendo, Inmaculada Maria Buendia; Mønster, Jacob G.; Samuelsson, Jerker; Kjeldsen, Peter

2014-01-01

Highlights: • An innovative biocover system was constructed on a landfill cell to mitigate the methane emission. • The biocover system had a mitigation efficiently of typically 80%. • The system also worked efficiently at ambient temperatures below freezing. • A whole landfill emission measurement tool was required to document the biocover system efficiency. - Abstract: Methane generated at landfills contributes to global warming and can be mitigated by biocover systems relying on microbial methane oxidation. As part of a closure plan for an old unlined landfill without any gas management measures, an innovative biocover system was established. The system was designed based on a conceptual model of the gas emission patterns established through an initial baseline study. The study included construction of gas collection trenches along the slopes of the landfill where the majority of the methane emissions occurred. Local compost materials were tested as to their usefulness as bioactive methane oxidizing material and a suitable compost mixture was selected. Whole site methane emission quantifications based on combined tracer release and downwind measurements in combination with several local experimental activities (gas composition within biocover layers, flux chamber based emission measurements and logging of compost temperatures) proved that the biocover system had an average mitigation efficiency of approximately 80%. The study showed that the system also had a high efficiency during winter periods with temperatures below freezing. An economic analysis indicated that the mitigation costs of the biocover system were competitive to other existing greenhouse gas mitigation options

Mitigation of methane emission from an old unlined landfill in Klintholm, Denmark using a passive biocover system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scheutz, Charlotte; Pedersen, Rasmus Broe [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Petersen, Per Haugsted [Ramboll Denmark A/S, DK-5100 Odense C (Denmark); Jørgensen, Jørgen Henrik Bjerre [Klintholm I/S, DK-5874 Hasselager (Denmark); Ucendo, Inmaculada Maria Buendia; Mønster, Jacob G. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Samuelsson, Jerker [FluxSense AB/Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Kjeldsen, Peter, E-mail: pekj@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2014-07-15

Highlights: • An innovative biocover system was constructed on a landfill cell to mitigate the methane emission. • The biocover system had a mitigation efficiently of typically 80%. • The system also worked efficiently at ambient temperatures below freezing. • A whole landfill emission measurement tool was required to document the biocover system efficiency. - Abstract: Methane generated at landfills contributes to global warming and can be mitigated by biocover systems relying on microbial methane oxidation. As part of a closure plan for an old unlined landfill without any gas management measures, an innovative biocover system was established. The system was designed based on a conceptual model of the gas emission patterns established through an initial baseline study. The study included construction of gas collection trenches along the slopes of the landfill where the majority of the methane emissions occurred. Local compost materials were tested as to their usefulness as bioactive methane oxidizing material and a suitable compost mixture was selected. Whole site methane emission quantifications based on combined tracer release and downwind measurements in combination with several local experimental activities (gas composition within biocover layers, flux chamber based emission measurements and logging of compost temperatures) proved that the biocover system had an average mitigation efficiency of approximately 80%. The study showed that the system also had a high efficiency during winter periods with temperatures below freezing. An economic analysis indicated that the mitigation costs of the biocover system were competitive to other existing greenhouse gas mitigation options.

Safety assessment for proposed pump mixing operations to mitigate episodic gas releases in tank 241-101-SY: Hanford Site, Richland, Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lentsch, J.W., Westinghouse Hanford

1996-05-16

This safety assessment addresses each of the elements required for the proposed action to remove a slurry distributor and to install, operate, and remove a mixing pump in Tank 241-SY-101, which is located within the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington. The proposed action is required as part of an ongoing evaluation of various mitigation concepts developed to eliminate episodic gas releases that result in hydrogen concentrations in the tank dome space that exceed the lower flammability limit.

Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David; Mei, Zhi-Gang; Yacout, Abdellatif M.

2018-01-01

Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety of LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.

Fossil energy savings and GHG mitigation potentials of ethanol as a gasoline substitute in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, Thu Lan T.; Gheewala, Shabbir H.; Garivait, Savitri

2007-01-01

One of the Thai government's measures to promote ethanol use is excise tax exemption, making gasohol cheaper than gasoline. The policy in favour of biofuels is being supported by their contribution to fossil energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. An analysis of energy balance (EnB), GHG balance and GHG abatement cost has been done to evaluate molasses-based ethanol (MoE) in Thailand. A positive EnB of 19.2 MJ/L implies that MoE is a good substitute for gasoline, effective in fossil energy savings. GHG balance assessment based on the baseline scenario shows that emissions are most likely to increase with the substitution. Scenarios using biogas captured from spent wash treatment and rice husk to substitute coal used in ethanol conversion give encouraging results in improving the GHG balance. However, the higher price of MoE over gasoline currently has resulted in high GHG abatement costs, even under the best-case scenario. Compared to the many other climate strategies relevant to Thailand, MoE is much less cost effective. Governed by the rule of supply and demand, a strong fluctuation in molasses price is considered the main cause of volatile MoE price. Once supplies are stable, the trend of price drops would make MoE a reasonable option for national climate policy

Energy-saving options for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the Mongolian energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorjpurev, J.; Purevjal, O.; Erdenechimeg, Ch. [and others

1996-12-31

The Energy sector is the largest contributor to GHG emission in Mongolia. The Energy sector emits 54 percent of CO2 and 4 percent of methane. All emissions of other greenhouse gases are accounted from energy related activities. The activities in this sector include coal production, fuel combustion, and biomass combustion at the thermal power stations and in private houses (stoves) for heating purposes. This paper presents some important Demand-side options considered for mitigation of CO2 emissions from energy sector such as Energy Conservation in Industrial Sector and in Buildings. Changes in energy policies and programmes in the Mongolian situation that promote more efficient and sustainable practices are presented in the paper. These energy saving measures will not only help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but will also promote economic development and alleviate other environmental problems.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Outlook natural and renewable gas. 2017 gas adequacy report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

Pursuant to Article L.141-10 of the French Energy Code, the managers of the gas distribution and transmission networks published jointly, and for the first time in 2016, a multi-year provisional assessment of gas demand and production in France. This document is an update of that first edition. It was developed in a collaborative process among managers of the distribution and transmission networks, which coordinated their analyses while taking into consideration recent changes in the energy sector. As the 2016 provisional assessment, this document presents three scenarios: a base reference scenario in line with the objectives of the multi-year energy program, and two framing scenarios

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

2017-05-15

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

2003-07-01

Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

Cradle to grave GHG emissions analysis of shale gas hydraulic fracking in Western Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bista Sangita

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Western Australia has globally significant onshore gas resources, with over 280 trillion cubic feet of economically recoverable gas located in five shale basins. The Western Australian Government and gas industry have promoted the development of these resources as a “clean energy source” that would “help to reduce global carbon emissions” and provide a “transition fuel” to a low carbon economy. This research examines those claims by reviewing existing literature and published data to estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG pollution that would result from the development of Western Australia’s onshore gas basins using hydraulic fracking. Estimates of carbon pollution from each stage in gas development, processing, transport and end-use are considered in order to establish total life-cycle emissions in tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e. The emissions estimates draw from published research on emissions from shale gas development in other jurisdictions as well as industry or government reported emissions from current technology for gas processing and end-use as applicable. The current policy and regulatory environment for carbon pollution and likely resulting GHG mitigation measures has also been considered, as well as the potential for the gas to displace or substitute for other energy sources. In areas where there is uncertainty, conservative emissions estimates have been used. Modelling of GHG emissions has been undertaken for two comparison resource development and utilisation scenarios; Australian domestic and 100% export i.e. no domestic use. Each scenario corresponds to a different proportionate allocation of emissions accounted for domestic emissions in Australia and emissions accounted for in other jurisdictions. Emissions estimates for the two scenarios are 245–502 MTCO2e/year respectively over a resource development timeframe of 20 years. This is roughly the same as Australia’s total GHG emissions in 2014

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohareb, Eugene A.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges. - Highlights: • Explores policy options in a city targeting an 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050. • Aggressive building code changes will have minimal impact on GHG mitigation. • Support of low-carbon electricity for the majority of generation necessary by 2050. • Internal combustion engine use must be mostly eliminated from the vehicle stock. • Policies supporting elimination of physical exchange space should be promoted

Biological processes for mitigation of greenhouse gases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benemann, John R. [California Univ., Dept. of Plant and Microbial Biology, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1999-07-01

utilisation-conversion processes. The diffuse nature of biomass resources requires relatively small-scale processes for their utilisation as solid fuels or conversion to liquid and gaseous fuels. Earlier proposals for enormous energy plantations feeding large power plants, or for establishing huge ocean kelp farms, were impractical. As are some recent geoengineering proposals, such as ocean fertilisation. In biomass utilisation, combustion is generally preferable to more complex processes, such as thermal or biochemical conversions to oils and alcohols. The co-firing of biomass in fossil power plants avoids many of the scale, procurement, and efficiency limitations of stand-alone systems and provides significant near-term opportunities for CO{sub 2} mitigation. Landfill gas recovery, due to the large greenhouse gas forcing of methane gas, is another currently available technology that can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Wastes and residues provide many opportunities for biofuels production and CO{sub 2} mitigation. Mitigating global warming with biological processes requires overcoming many scientific, technological, financial, institutional, regulator and, perhaps most important, environment barriers. This necessitates a major, world-wide and long-term, sustained research, development and implementation effort. (Author)

Gas Mitigation in Paper Production

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, AS; Bittencourt, C.

2017-07-01

The Brazilian paper industry has competitive advantages offered by the favorable climate, which favors an increase in the yield of forest restoration, and consequently, in the productive process. On the other hand, following the greenhouse gases (GHG), we can see our constantly changing sun, causing the solar storms, allowing their prevention or mitigating measures. The objective of this work is to contribute to the construction of the understanding necessary for the reduction of GHG emission from a preliminary analysis of the pulp and paper sector. As a secondary objective, the text preliminarily analyzes a company’s behavior against the backdrop of the Paris Accord, which strengthens the global response to the threat of climate change and strengthens the capacity of countries to deal with the impacts of such changes. The identification of best practices in the pulp and paper industry is understood, focusing on environmental sustainability, such as the adoption of reforestation, obtaining significant results. In the case of the paper industry, the management of public forests for sustainable production, within the structure of the Ministry of the Environment, establishes the promotion of public awareness about the importance of conservation, recovery and sustainable management of forest resources.

The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang-Helmreich Hanna

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.

Advanced insider threat mitigation workshop instructional materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2008-11-01

Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is a n update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios.

Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

2016-01-01

Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

Science.gov (United States)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-10-16

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-01-01

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

GreenGasGrids. A vision for biomethane in France for 2030. Injection of purified gas into the natural gas network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-10-01

This publication proposes a presentation of the activity of a work group on the injection of biomethane into natural gas networks, presents some key data and definitions regarding the production of biogas and its valorisation (co-generation and biomethane), some results and a brief presentation of scenarios and their hypotheses about the development of resources and biogas-based energy production. Results are presented for a trend-based scenario and a pro-active scenario. The last part presents the European GreenGasGrids project which aimed at stimulating the biomethane European market

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

System design description for SY-101 hydrogen mitigation test project data acquisition and control system (DACS-1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)