WorldWideScience

Sample records for gas mitigation scenarios

  1. Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

    2011-01-01

    Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

  2. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  3. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

  4. Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

  5. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  6. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

  7. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew; Haw, Mary; Merven, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

  8. Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.

    2014-01-01

    In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

  9. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  10. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  11. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

  12. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  13. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

    1999-01-01

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  14. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  15. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

  16. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  17. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  18. Gas Mitigation in Paper Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, AS; Bittencourt, C.

    2017-07-01

    The Brazilian paper industry has competitive advantages offered by the favorable climate, which favors an increase in the yield of forest restoration, and consequently, in the productive process. On the other hand, following the greenhouse gases (GHG), we can see our constantly changing sun, causing the solar storms, allowing their prevention or mitigating measures. The objective of this work is to contribute to the construction of the understanding necessary for the reduction of GHG emission from a preliminary analysis of the pulp and paper sector. As a secondary objective, the text preliminarily analyzes a company’s behavior against the backdrop of the Paris Accord, which strengthens the global response to the threat of climate change and strengthens the capacity of countries to deal with the impacts of such changes. The identification of best practices in the pulp and paper industry is understood, focusing on environmental sustainability, such as the adoption of reforestation, obtaining significant results. In the case of the paper industry, the management of public forests for sustainable production, within the structure of the Ministry of the Environment, establishes the promotion of public awareness about the importance of conservation, recovery and sustainable management of forest resources.

  19. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2017-03-21

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

  20. Gas powered fluid gun with recoil mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubelich, Mark C; Yonas, Gerold

    2013-11-12

    A gas powered fluid gun for propelling a stream or slug of a fluid at high velocity toward a target. Recoil mitigation is provided that reduces or eliminates the associated recoil forces, with minimal or no backwash. By launching a quantity of water in the opposite direction, net momentum forces are reduced or eliminated. Examples of recoil mitigation devices include a cone for making a conical fluid sheet, a device forming multiple impinging streams of fluid, a cavitating venturi, one or more spinning vanes, or an annular tangential entry/exit.

  1. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Eric A.

    2012-06-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

  2. Greenhouse gas mitigation options for Washington State

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, N.

    1996-04-01

    President Clinton, in 1993, established a goal for the United States to return emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. One effort established to help meet this goal was a three part Environmental Protection Agency state grant program. Washington State completed part one of this program with the release of the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions inventory and 2010 projected inventory. This document completes part two by detailing alternative greenhouse gas mitigation options. In part three of the program EPA, working in partnership with the States, may help fund innovative greenhouse gas reduction strategies. The greenhouse gas control options analyzed in this report have a wide range of greenhouse gas reductions, costs, and implementation requirements. In order to select and implement a prudent mix of control strategies, policy makers need to have some notion of the potential change in climate, the consequences of that change and the uncertainties contained therein. By understanding the risks of climate change, policy makers can better balance the use of scarce public resources for concerns that are immediate and present against those that affect future generations. Therefore, prior to analyzing alternative greenhouse gas control measures, this report briefly describes the phenomenon and uncertainties of global climate change, and then projects the likely consequences for Washington state.

  3. Greenhouse gas mitigation with scarce land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer-Aurich, A; Olesen, Jørgen E; Prochnow, A

    2013-01-01

    production. The surplus area could be used for energy production without affecting the land use necessary for food and feed production. We built a model to investigate the effect of changing nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates on cropping area required for a given amount of crops. We found that an increase...... should rather be used to produce crops at moderate fertilizer rate than to produce energy crops. This may change if farmers are forced to reduce their N input due to taxes or governmental regulations as it is the case in Denmark. However, with a fertilizer rate 10 % below the economical optimum......Agricultural lands have been identified to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions primarily by production of energy crops and substituting fossil energy resources and through carbon sequestration in soils. Increased fertilizer input resulting in increased yields may reduce the area needed for crop...

  4. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  5. Nuclear power for greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.

    2000-11-01

    The possibility of global climate change resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is a major global concern. At the Third Conference of the Parties (CoP 3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held at Kyoto, in December 1997, industrialized countries agreed to accept binding commitments that would reduce their collective GHG emissions, in the 2008-2012 commitment period, by at least 5% below 1990 levels. These countries also agreed to make demonstrable progress towards reducing GHG emissions by 2005. Because climate change is a global problem, i.e. it does not matter where on the globe GHGs are emitted - they all end up in the same atmosphere, many market economists maintain that mitigation should first occur wherever it is cheapest. Thus Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol makes provisions by which whose signatories who are required to limit emissions can gain credit for financing cost-effective mitigation projects in developing countries, while at the same time promoting sustainable development through the provision of financial and technical assistance. This option is known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM could be of particular interest to developing countries, which are not subject to emission limitations in the Kyoto Protocol. For example, the use of capital-intensive nuclear power instead of less costly coal-fired electricity generation would result in a significant reduction in GHG emissions. Because many developing countries may not be able to afford the higher investments associated with a nuclear power project, or because nuclear may simply not be the least-cost generation option for a given country, CDM offers an opportunity for (incremental) capital and technology transfer sponsored by countries of the CoP 3 in exchange for GHG emission credits. The benefit to the sponsor would be compliance with the emission limits set out in the Protocol, at a lower cost than if

  6. Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, S.; Sanderson, B. M.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2016-12-01

    Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2 degree C. We find that late decarbonization (LD) in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3 degree C and GMT remains above 2 degrees for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0 degrees for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

  7. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  8. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  9. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  10. Assessment of alternative mitigation concepts for Hanford flammable gas tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, C.W.; Schienbein, L.A.; Hudson, J.D.; Eschbach, E.J.; Lessor, D.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report provides a review and assessment of four selected mitigation concepts: pump jet mixing, sonic vibration, dilution, and heating. Though the relative levels of development of these concepts are quite different, some definite conclusions are made on their comparative feasibility. Key findings of this report are as follows. A mixer pump has proven to be a safe and effective active mitigation method in Tank 241-SY-101, and the authors are confident that mixer pumps will effectively mitigate other tanks with comparable waste configurations and properties. Low-frequency sonic vibration is also predicted to be effective for mitigation. Existing data cannot prove that dilution can mitigate gas release event (GRE) behavior. However, dilution is the only concept of the four that potentially offers passive mitigation. Like dilution, heating the waste cannot be proven with available information to mitigate GRE behavior. The designs, analyses, and data from which these conclusions are derived are presented along with recommendations

  11. Greenhouse gas mitigation in animal production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Boer, IJM; Cederberg, C; Eady, S

    2011-01-01

    The animal food chain contributes significantly to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We explored studies that addressed options to mitigate GHG emissions in the animal production chain and concluded that most studies focused on production systems in developed countries and on a single GHG...

  12. Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

  13. Fuel Flexibility: Landfill Gas Contaminant Mitigation for Power Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storey, John Morse [ORNL; Theiss, Timothy J [ORNL; Kass, Michael D [ORNL; FINNEY, Charles E A [ORNL; Lewis, Samuel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Kaul, Brian C [ORNL; Besmann, Theodore M [ORNL; Thomas, John F [ORNL; Rogers, Hiram [ORNL; Sepaniak, Michael [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-04-01

    This research project focused on the mitigation of silica damage to engine-based renewable landfill gas energy systems. Characterization of the landfill gas siloxane contamination, combined with characterization of the silica deposits in engines, led to development of two new mitigation strategies. The first involved a novel method for removing the siloxanes and other heavy contaminants from the landfill gas prior to use by the engines. The second strategy sought to interrupt the formation of hard silica deposits in the engine itself, based on inspection of failed landfill gas engine parts. In addition to mitigation, the project had a third task to develop a robust sensor for siloxanes that could be used to control existing and/or future removal processes.

  14. Manure management for greenhouse gas mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Søren O; Blanchard, M.; Chadwick, D.

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing intensification and specialisation of livestock production lead to increasing volumes of manure to be managed, which are a source of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Net emissions of CH4 and N2O result from a multitude of microbial activities in the manur...... to reduce GHG emissions from manure management. Growth in livestock populations are projected to occur mainly in intensive production systems where, for this and other reasons, the largest potentials for GHG mitigation may be found....... on the basis of four regional cases (Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, China and Europe) with increasing levels of intensification and priorities with respect to nutrient management and environmental regulation. GHG mitigation options for production systems based on solid and liquid manure management...

  15. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P. [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B. [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  16. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  17. International workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and measures: Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    More than 150 countries are now Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the global climate system. Climate change country studies are a significant step for developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet their national reporting commitments to the FCCC. These studies also provide the basis for preparation of National Climate Change Action Plans and implementation of technologies and practices which reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sinks. The broad goals of the workshop were to: (1) present results of country study mitigation assessments, (2) identify promising no-regrets greenhouse gas mitigation options in land-use and energy sectors, (3) share information on development of mitigation technologies and measures which contribute to improved National Climate Change Actions Plans, and (4) begin the process of synthesizing mitigation assessments for use by FCCC subsidiary bodies. The 59 papers are arranged into the following topical sections: (1) national mitigation assessments, technology priorities, and measures; (2) sector-specific mitigation assessment results, subdivided further into: energy sector; non-energy sector; renewable energy; energy efficiency in industry and buildings; transportation; electricity supply; forestry; and methane mitigation; (3) support for mitigation technologies and measures; and (4) activities implemented jointly. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  18. Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Jane M.-F. [USDA-Agricultural Research Service, 803 Iowa Avenue, Morris, MN 56267 (United States)], E-mail: jane.johnson@ars.usda.gov; Franzluebbers, Alan J. [USDA-Agricultural Research Service, 1420 Experiment Station Road, Watkinsville, GA 30677-2373 (United States); Weyers, Sharon Lachnicht; Reicosky, Donald C. [USDA-Agricultural Research Service, 803 Iowa Avenue, Morris, MN 56267 (United States)

    2007-11-15

    Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, and N{sub 2}O. It can also be a sink for CO{sub 2} through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH{sub 4} consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N{sub 2}O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint. - Management options can be used to reduce agriculture's environmental impacts.

  19. Sectoral Approaches to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This paper explores sectoral approaches as a new set of options to enhance the effectiveness of greenhouse gas reduction policies and to engage emerging economies on a lower emission path. It surveys existing literature and recent policy trends in international climate change discussions, and provides an overview of sectoral approaches and related issues for trade-exposed, greenhouse-gas intensive industries (cement, iron and steel and aluminium). It is also based on interviews conducted by the IEA Secretariat in Australia, China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. Sectoral approaches were also discussed during workshops on technology and energy efficiency policies in industry, following the IEA's mandate under the Gleneagles Plan of Action.

  20. Global initiatives to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helme, N.; Gille, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    Joint implementation (JI) is a provision, included in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, that allows for two or more nations to jointly plan and implement a greenhouse gas or offsetting project. Joint implementation is important environmentally for two principal reasons: (1) it provides an opportunity to select projects on a global basis that maximize both greenhouse gas reduction benefits and other environmental benefits such as air pollution reduction while minimizing cost, and (2) it creates incentives for developing countries as well as multinational companies to begin to evaluate potential investments through a climate-friendly lens. While the debate on how to establish the criteria and institutional capacity necessary to encourage joint implementation projects continues in the international community, the US government is creating new incentives for US companies to develop joint implementation pilot projects now. While delegates to the United Nations' International Negotiating Committee (INC) debate whether to permit all Parties to the convention to participate in JI, opportunities in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet states abound. The US has taken a leadership role in joint implementation, establishing two complementary domestic programs that allow US companies to measure, track and score their net greenhouse gas reduction achievements now. With a financial investment by three US utilities, the Center for Clean Air Policy is developing a fuel-switching and energy efficiency project in the city of Decin in the Czech Republic which offers a concrete example of what a real-world JI project could look like. The Decin project provides an ideal test case for assessing the adequacy and potential impact of the draft criteria for the US Initiative on Joint Implementation, as well as for the draft criteria prepared by the INC Secretariat

  1. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  2. Smart gas sensors for mitigating environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azad, A.M.

    1997-01-01

    From the viewpoint of industrial and automobile exhaust pollution control sensors capable of detecting and metering the concentration of harmful gasers such as carbon monoxide, hydrogen, hydrocarbons, NO sub x, SO sub x, etc, in the ambient are desired. Solid state gas sensors based on semiconducting metal oxides have been widely used for the detection and metering of a host of reducing gases, albeit with varying degrees of success. In this presentation, development aspects of new solid-state CO and H2 sensors are described. Benevolent effect of second phases and catalyst on the sensing characteristics, and the possible sensing mechanism are discussed. In the case of titania-based CO sensors, test results in a Ford V6 engine under programmed near-stoichiometric combustion conditions are also presented. Some new concepts in the area of reliable metering of humidity (water content) in the ambient are briefly highlighted. (author)

  3. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  4. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  5. On the potential for alternative greenhouse gas equivalence metrics to influence sectoral mitigation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Mark E.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.

    2013-03-01

    Equivalence metrics used to quantify the relative climate impacts of different atmospheric forcers serve an essential function in policy and economic discussions about global climate change. The 100-year global warming potential (GWP-100), the most established greenhouse gas (GHG) equivalence metric, is used within the Kyoto Protocol, and in most emissions inventory, trading and offset mechanisms, to assign the mitigation value of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases relative to carbon dioxide. In recent literature the GWP-100 and alternative metrics have been used to compare various anthropogenic climate forcers with respect to a wide range of environmental and economic goals. Building on this work, we examine how 16 different static and time-varying CO2-equivalence schemes might influence GHG mitigation across sectors and gases in a perfect and fluid global mitigation regime. This mitigation regime is guided by achieving a global mean radiative forcing (RF) of 5.7 Wm-2 in 2100 from 1765 levels through a mitigation policy of prescribed emissions reductions in each decade. It was found that static metrics defined on 20- instead of 100-year time horizons favor mitigation strategies that maximize the abatement of short-lived gases (e.g. methane), on average resulting in an RF from methane in 2100 of 0.5 Wm-2 instead of 1.1 Wm-2 from 100-year metrics. Similarly, metrics that consider integrated rather than end-point climate impacts imply mitigation strategies that maximize mitigation of shorter-lived GHGs, resulting in higher abatement of agriculture and waste emissions. Comparing extreme scenarios, these mitigation shifts across gases and sectors result in a nearly 30% difference in the representation of methane in global cumulative emissions reductions. This shift across gases and sectors to mitigate shorter-lived GHGs, in lieu of longer-lived GHGs like carbon dioxide, has implications for the long-term warming commitment due to 21st century emissions.

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  7. Rough surface mitigates electron and gas emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molvik, A.

    2004-01-01

    Heavy-ion beams impinging on surfaces near grazing incidence (to simulate the loss of halo ions) generate copious amounts of electrons and gas that can degrade the beam. We measured emission coefficients of η e (le) 130 and η 0 ∼ 10 4 respectively, with 1 MeV K + incident on stainless steel. Electron emission scales as η e ∝ 1/cos(θ), where θ is the ion angle of incidence relative to normal. If we were to roughen a surface by blasting it with glass beads, then ions that were near grazing incidence (90 o ) on smooth surface would strike the rims of the micro-craters at angles closer to normal incidence. This should reduce the electron emission: the factor of 10 reduction, Fig. 1(a), implies an average angle of incidence of 62 o . Gas desorption varies more slowly with θ (Fig. 1(b)) decreasing a factor of ∼2, and along with the electron emission is independent of the angle of incidence on a rough surface. In a quadrupole magnet, electrons emitted by lost primary ions are trapped near the wall by the magnetic field, but grazing incidence ions can backscatter and strike the wall a second time at an azimuth where magnetic field lines intercept the beam. Then, electrons can exist throughout the beam (see the simulations of Cohen, HIF News 1-2/04). The SRIM (TRIM) Monte Carlo code predicts that 60-70% of 1 MeV K + ions backscatter when incident at 88-89 o from normal on a smooth surface. The scattered ions are mostly within ∼10 o of the initial direction but a few scatter by up to 90 o . Ion scattering decreases rapidly away from grazing incidence, Fig. 1(c ). At 62 deg. the predicted ion backscattering (from a rough surface) is 3%, down a factor of 20 from the peak, which should significantly reduce electrons in the beam from lost halo ions. These results are published in Phys. Rev. ST - Accelerators and Beams

  8. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions: Voluntary reporting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-01

    The Voluntary Reporting Program, developed pursuant to Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, permits corporations, government agencies, households, and voluntary organizations to report on their emissions of greenhouse gases, and on actions taken that have reduced or avoided emissions or sequestered carbon, to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This, the second annual report of the Voluntary Reporting Program, describes information provided by the participating organizations on their aggregate emissions and emissions reductions, as well as their emissions reduction or avoidance projects, through 1995. This information has been compiled into a database that includes reports from 142 organizations and descriptions of 967 projects that either reduced greenhouse gas emissions or sequestered carbon. Fifty-one reporters also provided estimates of emissions, and emissions reductions achieved, for their entire organizations. The projects described actions taken to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from energy production and use; to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from energy use, waste management, and agricultural processes; to reduce emissions of halocarbons, such as CFCs and their replacements; and to increase carbon sequestration.

  9. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C. [University of Moratuwa (Sri Lanka). Centre for Energy Studies; Fernando, W.J.L.S. [Sri Lanka Energy Managers Association, Colombo (Sri Lanka); Shrestha, R.M. [Asian Inst. of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). Energy Program

    2003-12-01

    Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures. This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO{sub 2} mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka. (author)

  10. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gernaat, David E H J; Calvin, Katherine; Lucas, Paul L.; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander A C; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    In 2010, the combined emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) accounted for 20-30% of Kyoto emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. Current scenario studies conclude that in order to reach deep climate targets (radiative forcing

  11. Energy efficiency and CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for French dwellings based on retrofitting and best energy demand technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osso, D.; Bouia, H.; Mandrou, P.; Laurent, M.H. [Electricite de France, Energy in buildings and territories dept. (France)

    2007-07-01

    Two main targets of European and French energy policies are reduction of energy dependency and greenhouse gas mitigation. Energy conservation is unavoidable in order to reach these two goals.The Building sector is the largest end use in Europe, and also the largest CO{sub 2} emitter (if power plant emissions are included in final energy consumption). It is now well admitted that drastic decrease of buildings energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions need an intensive retrofitting of building stock, especially housing.This work evaluates various refurbishment scenarios outlook for 2030 of French dwelling stock: Business As Usual (BaU) or accelerate rates, usual technologies or Best Available Technologies (BATs). Emerging technologies (not yet available but with strong potential) are introduced among 'on the shelf' technologies. Studied scenarios include energy efficiency actions as well as energy substitution. Estimations of technical investment cost of studied scenarios are presented.The calculations are done using the MIeL 'Modeling of the Impact of Energy measures for housing' software, developed by EDF and built following a bottom-up approach.

  12. Gas jet disruption mitigation studies on Alcator C-Mod

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granetz, R.; Whyte, D.G.; Izzo, V.A.; Biewer, T.; Reinke, M.L.; Terry, J.; Bader, A.; Bakhtiari, M.; Jernigan, T.; Wurden, G.

    2006-01-01

    Damaging effects of disruptions are a major concern for Alcator C-Mod, ITER and future tokamak reactors. High-pressure noble gas jet injection is a mitigation technique which potentially satisfies the operational requirements of fast response time and reliability, while still being benign to subsequent discharges. Disruption mitigation experiments using an optimized gas jet injection system are being carried out on Alcator C-Mod to study the physics of gas jet penetration into high pressure plasmas, as well as the ability of the gas jet impurities to convert plasma energy into radiation on timescales consistent with C-Mod's fast quench times, and to reduce halo currents given C-Mod's high-current density. The dependence of impurity penetration and effectiveness on noble gas species (He, Ne, Ar, Kr) is also being studied. It is found that the high-pressure neutral gas jet does not penetrate deeply into the C-Mod plasma, and yet prompt core thermal quenches are observed on all gas jet shots. 3D MHD modelling of the disruption physics with NIMROD shows that edge cooling of the plasma triggers fast growing tearing modes which rapidly produce a stochastic region in the core of the plasma and loss of thermal energy. This may explain the apparent effectiveness of the gas jet in C-Mod despite its limited penetration. The higher-Z gases (Ne, Ar, Kr) also proved effective at reducing halo currents and decreasing thermal deposition to the divertor surfaces. In addition, noble gas jet injection proved to be benign for plasma operation with C-Mod's metal (Mo) wall, actually improving the reliability of the startup in the following discharge

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

    2013-01-01

    Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

  14. Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

  15. The Role of Bioenergy in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spitzer, J.

    1998-01-01

    Biomass can play a dual role in greenhouse gas mitigation related to the objectives of the UNFCCC, i.e. as an energy source to substitute fossil fuels and as a carbon store. However, compared to the maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs, it appears that the use of bioenergy has so far received less attenuation as a means of mitigating climate change. Modern bioenergy options offer significant, cost-effective and perpetual opportunities toward meeting emission reduction targets while providing additional ancillary benefits. Moreover, via the sustainable use of the accumulated carbon, bioenergy has the potential for resolving some of the critical issues surrounding long-term maintenance of biotic carbon stocks. < finally, wood products can act as substitutes for more energy-intensive products, can constitute carbon sinks, and can be used as biofuels at the end of their lifetime. (author)

  16. Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze contiguous U.S. hydropower generation under various emissions scenarios. • Employ systems model that allocates water to competing uses in 2119 river basins. • Average U.S. generation increases under climate change, but falls under low flows. • Mitigation benefits are $2-$4 billion/year due to high values of carbon-free energy. - Abstract: Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and climate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydropower. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas

  17. Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellarby, Jessica; Tirado, Reyes; Leip, Adrian; Weiss, Franz; Lesschen, Jan Peter; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO2 e, or 12-17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO2 e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Mario; Henderson, Benjamin; Havlík, Petr; Thornton, Philip K.; Conant, Richard T.; Smith, Pete; Wirsenius, Stefan; Hristov, Alexander N.; Gerber, Pierre; Gill, Margaret; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Valin, Hugo; Garnett, Tara; Stehfest, Elke

    2016-05-01

    The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40-50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6-7.5 GtCO2e yr-1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment.

  19. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  20. Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

  1. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valin, H; Havlík, P; Mosnier, A; Obersteiner, M; Herrero, M; Schmid, E

    2013-01-01

    In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. Our results confirm that yield increase could mitigate some agriculture-related emissions growth over the next decades. Closing yield gaps by 50% for crops and 25% for livestock by 2050 would decrease agriculture and land use change emissions by 8% overall, and by 12% per calorie produced. However, the outcome is sensitive to the technological path and which factor benefits from productivity gains: sustainable land intensification would increase GHG savings by one-third when compared with a fertilizer intensive pathway. Reaching higher yield through total factor productivity gains would be more efficient on the food supply side but halve emissions savings due to a strong rebound effect on the demand side. Improvement in the crop or livestock sector would have different implications: crop yield increase would bring the largest food provision benefits, whereas livestock productivity gains would allow the greatest reductions in GHG emission. Combining productivity increases in the two sectors appears to be the most efficient way to exploit mitigation and food security co-benefits. (letter)

  2. U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Martin T.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Clapp, Christa S.

    2009-01-01

    The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.

  3. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  4. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  5. Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits: A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quam, Vivian G M; Rocklöv, Joacim; Quam, Mikkel B M; Lucas, Rebekah A I

    2017-04-27

    This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities.

  6. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  7. Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazioli, R.; Ricci, A.; Valentini, A.; Baratta, R.; Battaglia, A.; Conticelli, M.; Antonioli, B.; Beccarello, M.

    2000-01-01

    Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption [it

  8. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoang Minh Giang

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Current household solid waste treatment practices in most cities in Vietnam caused a great amount of direct greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Available solid waste treatment technologies should be seriously taken  into consideration as a wedge of GHG mitigation in waste sector base on presently Vietnamese economic conditions. This study aim to evaluate the potential amount of GHG mitigation from current domestic solid waste treatment technologies in Vietnam including landfills and composting from various management scenarios. In oder to use Tier 2 model of IPCC 2006 for GHG estimation from landfills, an analysis on current household solid waste management system of the city was obtained by using material flow analysis approach. A case study in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam was carried out in this research. As a result, there was a reduced of over 70% of the amount of CH4 emissions and  up to 53% of total GHG saving (CO2-eq from avoiding organic waste to landfill. In addition, applying an energy recovery from LFG system to available landfills would lead to aproximately 75% of GHG saved compare to current emission of waste sector.Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16Citation: Giang, H.M.,Luong, N.D., and Huong, L.T.M.2013. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies. . Waste Technology 1(1:6-9. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16

  9. GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION POTENTIAL IN U.S. FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the FASOM-GHG model (Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases), the GHG mitigation scenarios for U.S. forestry and agriculture run through the FASOM-GHG model, and the results and insights that are generated. GHG mitigation po...

  10. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thepkhun, Panida; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Shrestha, Ram M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and CO 2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  11. The potential for biomass to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the Northeastern US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernow, S.S.; Gurney, K.; Prince, G.; Cyr, M.

    1992-04-01

    This study, for the Northeast Regional Biomass Program (NRBP) of the Coalition of Northeast Governors (CONEG), evaluates the potential for local, state and regional biomass policies to contribute to an overall energy/biomass strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gas releases in the Northeastern United States. Biomass is a conditionally renewable resource that can play a dual role: by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in meeting our energy needs; and by removing carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it in standing biomass stocks and long-lived products. In this study we examine the contribution of biomass to the energy system in the Northeast and to the region's net releases of carbon dioxide and methane, and project these releases over three decades, given a continuation of current trends and policies. We then compare this Reference Case with three alternative scenarios, assuming successively more aggressive efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through strategic implementation of energy efficiency and biomass resources. Finally, we identify and examine policy options for expanding the role of biomass in the region's energy and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

  12. U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E

    2015-07-07

    We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.

  13. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the production of fluid milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasula, Peggy M; Nutter, Darin W

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change, driven by the buildup of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, is challenging the dairy industries in the United States and throughout the world to develop sustainable initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. The U.S. dairy industry has committed to lowering the GHG emissions, primarily CH(4), N(2)O, and CO(2), in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain which extends from the farm, to the processing plant, and to distribution of the packaged product, where it is refrigerated by the retailer and then the consumer. This chapter provides an overview of the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique and its use in identifying the GHG emissions in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain, from cradle to grave, and the best practices and research that is currently being conducted to reduce or mitigate GHG emissions in each sector. We also discuss the use of on-farm and off-farm process simulation as tools for evaluating on-farm mitigation techniques, off-farm alternative processing scenarios, and use of alternative energy management practices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Global Scale DAYCENT Model Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies for Cropped Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Grosso, S.; Parton, W.; Ojima, D.; Deangelo, B.; Rose, S.

    2005-12-01

    Conversion of native vegetation to cropland and intensification of agriculture typically results in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and NO3 leaching. Agriculture is responsible for ~50% and ~70%, respectively, of the anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Agriculture is also the primary contributor of eutrophication of aquatic systems from nutrients that are runoff or leached from cropped fields into waterways. Regional and larger scale estimates of GHG emissions and NO3 leaching are usually based on IPCC emission factor methodology, which is associated with high uncertainty. Process based models, such as DAYCENT, are just beginning to be used for national inventories of GHG emissions. The methodology used to conduct DAYCENT global and regional scale simulations of three major crops (corn, soybean, wheat) under baseline and alternative management is described in detail by Ojima et al. in this session. We compared model generated baseline GHG emissions and N losses for irrigated and rainfed cropping with land use alternatives intended to reduce GHG emissions. Mitigation scenarios considered are: nitrification inhibitors, split fertilizer application, N fertilizer reduction, and no-till cultivation. Simulations suggest that use of nitrification inhibitors leads to the largest reduction in N losses (~10%) and conversion to no till can store C and further offset GHG emissions associated with agriculture. Reduced fertilizer resulted in lower N losses, but crop yields were also reduced. Use of nitrification inhibitors and split fertilizer application both led to increased (~6%) crop yields. Future simulations will explore interactions between different mitigation options.

  15. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  16. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Amit; Bhattacharya, S.C.; Pham, H.L.

    2003-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials of number of selected Biomass Energy Technologies (BETs) have been assessed in Vietnam. These include Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) based on wood and bagasse, direct combustion plants based on wood, co-firing power plants and Stirling engine based on wood and cooking stoves. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, different scenarios were considered, namely the base case with no mitigation options, replacement of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by biogas stove, substitution of gasoline by ethanol in transport sector, replacement of coal by wood as fuel in industrial boilers, electricity generation with biomass energy technologies and an integrated scenario including all the options together. Substitution of coal stoves by biogas stove has positive abatement cost, as the cost of wood in Vietnam is higher than coal. Replacement of kerosene and LPG cookstoves by biomass stove also has a positive abatement cost. Replacement of gasoline by ethanol can be realized after a few years, as at present the cost of ethanol is more than the cost of gasoline. The replacement of coal by biomass in industrial boiler is also not an attractive option as wood is more expensive than coal in Vietnam. The substitution of fossil fuel fired plants by packages of BETs has a negative abatement cost. This option, if implemented, would result in mitigation of 10.83 million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in 2010

  17. Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using

  18. Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Gasol, Carles M.; Oliver-Solà, Jordi; Huelin, Sagrario; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2013-01-01

    The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions. - Highlights: • Three model stretches, representative of Spanish motorway conditions, were evaluated. • Three environmental improvement scenarios were proposed. • Speed limit seemed the easiest measure to implement in a near future. • Afforestation showed limited effectiveness per unit of land surface. • A drastic technological improvement is required to obtain significant reductions

  19. Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

    2014-01-01

    good. The main target group of the scenario results is the Transmission System Operators (TSOs), but the results will also be relevant for the Nordic politicians and investment decision makers in the power industry. The scenarios will among other be used for the following purposes: - Identify...... profitable investments in transmission grids with particular focus on the interconnections between the Nordic region and Continental Europe - Technical simulations of the power system with focus on balancing of large shares of non-dispatchable renewable resources in a future system. - Assess impacts...... on the power system with large-scale deployment of electric vehicles. - Discuss necessary governance transformation related to the transmission grid developmentThe paper presents a scenario methodology where each scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy for how the decision maker (TSOs) can act...

  20. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions from liquid dairy manure: Prediction and mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Søren O.

    2018-01-01

    prediction and mitigation. Although more representative emission factors may be determined at country level, this is both challenging and costly, and effects of management changes for GHG mitigation are not easily quantified. An empirical model of CH4 emissions during storage is discussed that is based......The handling and use of manure on livestock farms contributes to emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) CH4 and N2O, especially with liquid manure management. Dairy farms are diverse with respect to manure management, with practices ranging from daily spreading to long-term storage for more...... efficient recycling of manure nutrients for crop production. Opportunities for GHG mitigation will depend on the baseline situation with respect to handling and storage, and therefore prediction and mitigation at the farm level requires a dynamic description of housing systems and storage conditions...

  2. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

  3. How conservation agriculture can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and enhance soil carbon storage in croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conservation agriculture can mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture by enhancing soil carbon sequestration, improving soil quality, N-use efficiency and water use efficiencies, and reducing fuel consumption. Management practices that increase carbon inputs and while reducing carbo...

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and marine transportation : mitigation potential and policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides an overview of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions : from aviation and marine transportation and the various mitigation options to reduce these emissions. Reducing global emissions by 50 to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050reduct...

  5. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and non-CO 2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO 2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH 4 ) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO 2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO 2 and CH 4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO 2 -equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO 2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas

  6. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  7. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Sue Wing, I.; Stern, A.

    2014-12-01

    As contributors to the US EPA's Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment (CIRA) project, we present empirically-based projections of climate change impacts on the yields of five major US crops. Our analysis uses a 15-member ensemble of climate simulations using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) linked to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), forced by 3 emissions scenarios (a "business as usual" reference scenario and two stabilization scenarios at 4.5W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100), quantify the agricultural impacts avoided due to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Our innovation is the coupling of climate model outputs with empirical estimates of the long-run relationship between crop yields and temperature, precipitation and soil moisture derived from the co-variation between yields and weather across US counties over the last 50 years. Our identifying assumption is that since farmers' planting, management and harvesting decisions are based on land quality and expectations of weather, yields and meteorological variables share a long-run equilibrium relationship. In any given year, weather shocks cause yields to diverge from their expected long-run values, prompting farmers to revise their long-run expectations. We specify a dynamic panel error correction model (ECM) that statistically distinguishes these two processes. The ECM is estimated for maize, wheat, soybeans, sorghum and cotton using longitudinal data on production and harvested area for ~1,100 counties from 1948-2010, in conjunction with spatial fields of 3-hourly temperature, precipitation and soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing and output files, binned into annual counts of exposure over the growing season and mapped to county centroids. For scenarios of future warming the identical method was used to calculate counties' current (1986-2010) and future (2036-65 and 2086-2110) distributions of simulated 3-hourly growing season temperature, precipitation

  8. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  9. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  10. EMF 9 scenarios Canadian natural gas: Potential demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    The basic analytical perspectives of this work are: (1) Canada is a price taker on the US natural gas market; (2) Gas competes with HFO in both markets, and Canada is integrated into the international oil market; (3) Canadian and US income growth rates are consistent with each other, given the major influence of US economic performance on that of the Canadian economy; and (4) Given the price, income and other assumptions, we used the Board's Energy Demand Model to calculate annual demand for natural gas in each price case. We used the Board's models for reserves additions and productive capacity estimation to calculate potential annual supply. The difference between demand and potential supply is the potential exportable volume. The annual productive capacity curve assumes, agnostically, that all potential production is sold yearly

  11. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013. The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013. Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m−3 than the west (0–0.4 µg m−3 for fine particulate matter (PM2.5, with an average of 0.47 µg m−3 over the US; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits and O3 (89 % of the total than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013. GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total than that from domestic GHG

  12. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Smith, Steven J.; West, J. Jason

    2016-08-01

    Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m-3) than the west (0–0.4 µg m-3) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with an average of 0.47 µg m-3 over the US; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O3 reduction

  13. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  14. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  15. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  16. Eco-efficiency for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation of municipal solid waste management: a case study of Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Huppes, Gjalt; van der Voet, Ester

    2011-06-01

    The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been highlighted in China due to the continually increasing MSW volumes being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. This article presents a quantitative eco-efficiency (E/E) analysis on MSW management in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. A methodology for E/E analysis has been proposed, with an emphasis on the consistent integration of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). The environmental and economic impacts derived from LCA and LCC have been normalized and defined as a quantitative E/E indicator. The proposed method was applied in a case study of Tianjin, China. The study assessed the current MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, to investigate trade-offs between economy and GHG emissions mitigation. Additionally, contribution analysis was conducted on both LCA and LCC to identify key issues driving environmental and economic impacts. The results show that the current Tianjin's MSW management system emits the highest GHG and costs the least, whereas the situation reverses in the integrated scenario. The key issues identified by the contribution analysis show no linear relationship between the global warming impact and the cost impact in MSW management system. The landfill gas utilization scenario is indicated as a potential optimum scenario by the proposed E/E analysis, given the characteristics of MSW, technology levels, and chosen methodologies. The E/E analysis provides an attractive direction towards sustainable waste management, though some questions with respect to uncertainty need to be discussed further. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hong-Mei; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Liu, Li-Jing; Diaz Anadon, Laura

    2017-12-01

    The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy security, technological spillovers and innovation, and food security. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity

  18. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Database and Tool - Data repository of GHG mitigation technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Industry and electricity production facilities generate over 50 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. There is a growing consensus among scientists that the primary cause of climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emi...

  19. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  20. USDA Northeast climate hub greenhouse gas mitigation workshop technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    In April 2015, USDA Secretary Vilsack announced the Greenhouse Gas Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase carbon sequestration, and expand renewable energy production in the agricultural and forestry sectors. This initiati...

  1. The indirect costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect costs of GHG projects are very important in the evaluation of such projects. In many cases they are more important than the direct costs. This paper has shown what such costs consist of and how they may be estimated. As countries prepare their mitigation strategies, it is very important that they develop tools for the assessment of these indirect costs and use these tools in the appropriate manner. Hopefully, this paper will point them in the right direction. (au) 11 refs

  2. Asia least-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategy identification and assessment of mitigation options for the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Sujata; Bhandari, Preety

    1998-01-01

    The focus of the presentation was on greenhouse gas mitigation options for the energy sector for India. Results from the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse gas Abatement Strategies (ALGAS) project were presented. The presentation comprised of a review of the sources of greenhouse gases, the optimisation model, ie the Markal model, used for determining the least-cost options, discussion of the results from the baseline and the abatement scenarios. The second half of the presentation focussed on a multi-criteria assessment of the abatement options using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model. The emissions of all greenhouse gases, for India, are estimated to be 986.3 Tg of carbon dioxide equivalent for 1990. The energy sector accounted for 58 percent of the total emissions and over 90 percent of the CO2 emissions. Net emissions form land use change and forestry were zero. (au)

  3. Disruption mitigation with high-pressure helium gas injection on EAST tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, D. L.; Shen, B.; Granetz, R. S.; Qian, J. P.; Zhuang, H. D.; Zeng, L.; Duan, Y.; Shi, T.; Wang, H.; Sun, Y.; Xiao, B. J.

    2018-03-01

    High pressure noble gas injection is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of disruptions in tokamaks. In this paper, results of mitigation experiments with low-Z massive gas injection (helium) on the EAST tokamak are reported. A fast valve has been developed and successfully implemented on EAST, with valve response time  ⩽150 μs, capable of injecting up to 7 × 1022 particles, corresponding to 300 times the plasma inventory. Different amounts of helium gas were injected into stable plasmas in the preliminary experiments. It is seen that a small amount of helium gas (N_He≃ N_plasma ) can not terminate a discharge, but can trigger MHD activity. Injection of 40 times the plasma inventory impurity (N_He≃ 40× N_plasma ) can effectively radiate away part of the thermal energy and make the electron density increase rapidly. The mitigation result is that the current quench time and vertical displacement can both be reduced significantly, without resulting in significantly higher loop voltage. This also reduces the risk of runaway electron generation. As the amount of injected impurity gas increases, the gas penetration time decreases slowly and asymptotes to (˜7 ms). In addition, the impurity gas jet has also been injected into VDEs, which are more challenging to mitigate that stable plasmas.

  4. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  5. Benefits on public health from transport-related greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Southeastern European cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, D A; Kontoroupis, P; Nikolaki, S; Gotti, A; Chapizanis, D; Karakitsios, S

    2017-02-01

    Climate change is a major environmental threat of our time. Cities have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions as most of the traffic, industry, commerce and more than 50% of world population is situated in urban areas. Southern Europe is a region that faces financial turmoil, enhanced migratory fluxes and climate change pressure. The case study of Thessaloniki is presented, one of the only two cities in Greece with established climate change action plans. The effects of feasible traffic policies in year 2020 are assessed and their potential health impact is compared to a business as usual scenario. Two types of measures are investigated: operation of underground rail in the city centre and changes in fleet composition. Potential co-benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions on public health by the year 2020 are computed utilizing state-of-the-art concentration response functions for PM x , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 . Results show significant environmental health and monetary co-benefits when the city metro is coupled with appropriate changes in the traffic composition. Monetary savings due to avoided mortality or leukaemia incidence corresponding to the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5, NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure will be 56.6, 45, 37.7 and 1.0 million Euros respectively. Promotion of 'green' transportation in the city (i.e. the wide use of electric vehicles), will provide monetary savings from the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure up to 60.4, 49.1, 41.2 and 1.08 million Euros. Overall, it was shown that the respective GHG emission reduction policies resulted in clear co-benefits in terms of air quality improvement, public health protection and monetary loss mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoudpour, Hamid; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

    2006-01-01

    Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO 2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO 2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

  7. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

    2017-11-01

    Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

  8. Wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry: Assessment, conclusions, and recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkey, P.L.; Sundell, R.C.; Bailey, K.A.; Hayes, D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Wetland mitigation banks are already in existence in the United States, and the number is increasing. To date, most of these banks have been created and operated for mitigation of impacts arising from highway or commercial development and have not been associated with the oil and gas industry. Argonne National Laboratory evaluated the positive and negative aspects of wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry by examining banks already created for other uses by federal, state, and private entities. Specific issues addressed in this study include (1) the economic, ecological, and technical effectiveness of existing banks; (2) the changing nature of local, state, and federal jurisdiction; and (3) the unique regulatory and jurisdictional problems affecting bank developments associated with the oil and gas industry.

  9. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, D.C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, G.M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  10. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

    2010-12-16

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  11. Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bellarby, J.; Tirado, R.; Leip, A.; Weiss, F.; Lesschen, J.P.; Smith, P.

    2013-01-01

    The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also

  12. Mitigating gas emissions at signalised intersections using wireless vehicle detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses Kwasi Torkudzor

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Traffic congestion on roads wastes travel times and increases fuel consumption as well as gas emissions which are dangerous to human health. This has led to growing concern about environmental protection and energy conservation and a number of studies to increase fuel economy and reduce gas emissions. To increase travel times so as to reduce fuel consumption and gas emissions, traffic signals at intersections must be well implemented. It is therefore necessary to employ the current technology of wireless sensor networks to enhance the optimisation of the signalised intersections so as to address such a concern. In this study, a vehicular traffic control model was developed to optimise a signalised intersection, using wireless vehicle detectors. Real-time traffic volume gathered were analysed to obtain the peak hour traffic volume causing congestion. The intersection was modelled and simulated in Synchro7 as an actuated signalised model using results from the analysed data. The model for morning peak and evening peak periods gave optimal cycle lengths which result in the reduction of gas emissions, fuel consumption and delay at the intersection.

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Beijing: The rising trend and the mitigation effects by management improvements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Wen

    2016-04-01

    Disposal of solid waste poses great challenges to city managements. Changes in solid waste composition and disposal methods, along with urbanisation, can certainly affect greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste. In this study, we analysed the changes in the generation, composition and management of municipal solid waste in Beijing. The changes of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management were thereafter calculated. The impacts of municipal solid waste management improvements on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation effects of treatment techniques of greenhouse gas were also analysed. Municipal solid waste generation in Beijing has increased, and food waste has constituted the most substantial component of municipal solid waste over the past decade. Since the first half of 1950s, greenhouse gas emission has increased from 6 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)to approximately 200 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in the early 1990s and 2145 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in 2013. Landfill gas flaring, landfill gas utilisation and energy recovery in incineration are three techniques of the after-emission treatments in municipal solid waste management. The scenario analysis showed that three techniques might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7%, 4.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In the future, if waste disposal can achieve a ratio of 4:3:3 by landfill, composting and incineration with the proposed after-emission treatments, as stipulated by the Beijing Municipal Waste Management Act, greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste will decrease by 41%. © The Author(s) 2016.

  14. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; West, J. Jason

    2017-11-01

    Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

  15. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; West, J. Jason

    2017-11-01

    Reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling of meteorology and air quality from global simulations to the continental US, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to the reference scenario from which Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) was created, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16 000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr‑1 (90% confidence interval, 11 700–20 300), and 8000 (3600–12 400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr‑1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5-and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign mitigation for US health. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits for avoided deaths from ozone and PM2.5 are 137 (87–187) per ton CO2 at high valuation and 45 (29–62) at low valuation, of which 31% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater air quality and health co-benefits when its GHG emission reductions are concurrent with reductions in other nations. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

  16. Nordic regionalisation of a greenhouse-gas stabilisation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyser, Klaus; Rummukainen, Markku; Strandberg, Gustav

    2006-10-15

    The impact of a CO{sub 2} stabilisation on the Swedish climate is investigated with the regional climate model RCA3 driven by boundary conditions obtained from a global coupled climate system model (CCSM3). The global model has been forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations from pre-industrial conditions until today's, and with an idealised further increase until the stabilisation level is reached. After stabilisation the model integration continues for another 150+ years in order to follow the delayed response of the climate system over a period of time. Results from the global and regional climate model are compared against observations and ECMWF reanalysis for 1961-1990. For this period, the global model is found to be too cold over Europe and with a zonal flow from the North Atlantic towards Europe that is too strong. The climate of the driving global model controls the climate of the regional model and the same deviations from one are thus inherited by the other. We therefore analyse the relative climate changes differences, or ratios, of climate variables between future's and today's climate. Compared to pre-industrial conditions, the global mean temperature changes by about 1.5 deg C as a result of the stabilisation at 450 ppmv equivalent CO{sub 2}. Averaged over Europe, the temperature change is slightly larger, and it is even larger for Sweden and Northern Europe. Annual mean precipitation for Europe is unaffected, but Sweden receives more precipitation under higher CO{sub 2} levels. The inter-annual and decadal variability of annual mean temperature and precipitation does not change with any significant degree. The changes in temperature and precipitation are not evenly distributed with the season: the largest warming and increased precipitation in Northern Europe occurs during winter months while the summer climate remains more or less unchanged. The opposite is true for the Mediterranean region where the precipitation decreases

  17. Designing better methane mitigation policies: the challenge of distributed small sources in the natural gas sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravikumar, Arvind P.; Brandt, Adam R.

    2017-04-01

    Methane—a short-lived and potent greenhouse gas—presents a unique challenge: it is emitted from a large number of highly distributed and diffuse sources. In this regard, the United States’ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recommended periodic leak detection and repair surveys at oil and gas facilities using optical gas imaging technology. This regulation requires an operator to fix all detected leaks within a set time period. Whether such ‘find-all-fix-all’ policies are effective depends on significant uncertainties in the character of emissions. In this work, we systematically analyze the effect of facility-related and mitigation-related uncertainties on regulation effectiveness. Drawing from multiple publicly-available datasets, we find that: (1) highly-skewed leak-size distributions strongly influence emissions reduction potential; (2) variations in emissions estimates across facilities leads to large variability in mitigation effectiveness; (3) emissions reductions from optical gas imaging-based leak detection programs can range from 15% to over 70%; and (4) while implementation costs are uniformly lower than EPA estimates, benefits from saved gas are highly variable. Combining empirical evidence with model results, we propose four policy options for effective methane mitigation: performance-oriented targets for accelerated emission reductions, flexible policy mechanisms to account for regional variation, technology-agnostic regulations to encourage adoption of the most cost-effective measures, and coordination with other greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce unintended spillover effects.

  18. Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

    1996-07-01

    Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

  19. Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J.; Schroten, A.; Bles, M.; Sevenster, M.; Markowska, A.; Smit, M. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Rohde, C.; Duetschke, E.; Koehler, J.; Gigli, M. [Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (Germany); Zimmermann, K.; Soboh, R.; Van ' t Riet, J. [Landbouw Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    Changes in consumer behaviour can lead to major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union, particularly in the areas of transport, housing and food. Behavioural changes can complement technological changes and can allow emission reduction targets to be achieved more cost-effectively overall. The study identifies 36 options for behavioural change that would cut greenhouse gas emissions. Of these, 11 particularly relevant options have been studied in detail. They include shifting to a more healthy and balanced diet, eating less meat and dairy products, buying and using a smaller car or an electric car, teleworking, adjusting room temperature and optimising ventilation. For each of the behavioural changes studied in depth, emission reduction potentials have been quantified for 2020, 2030 and 2050. The study identifies barriers to implementing the changes, and quantifies the likely effects of policy packages which could overcome these barriers. The results show that the behavioural changes that could take place simultaneously have the potential to save emissions totalling up to about 600 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent a year in 2020. This is about one-quarter of the projected annual emissions from sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading system. The savings potential is particularly high in the area of food.

  20. A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

    2018-01-01

    In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

  1. Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hinti, I.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Akash, B.; Abu-Nada, E.

    2007-01-01

    The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO 2 emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007-2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO 2 emissions

  2. Microbial methane oxidation processes and technologies for mitigation of landfill gas emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter; Bogner, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Landfill gas containing methane is produced by anaerobic degradation of organic waste. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and landfills are one of the major anthropogenic sources of atmospheric methane. Landfill methane may be oxidized by methanotrophic microorganisms in soils or waste materials...... to predict methane emissions from landfills. Additional research and technology development is needed before methane mitigation technologies utilizing microbial methane oxidation processes can become commercially viable and widely deployed....

  3. The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation i...

  4. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from reed canary grass in paludiculture: effect of groundwater level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karki, Sandhya; Elsgaard, Lars; Audet, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    Background and aims Combination of rewetting and wetland crop cultivation (paludiculture) is pursued as a wider carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation option in drained peatland. However, information on the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) balance for paludiculture is lacking. We investigated the GHG balance...

  5. Greenhouse gas mitigation using poultry litter management techniques in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mainali, Brijesh; Emran, Saad Been; Silveira, Semida

    2017-01-01

    Poultry activities have expanded significantly in Bangladesh in recent years. The litter generated from rural poultry farms is often dumped in low ground neighboring areas resulting in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as water and air pollution. This study estimates the GHG emissions of a typical rural layer poultry farm in Bangladesh, and identifies the GHG emissions reduction potential when poultry litter management techniques are used to produce biogas, generating electricity and bio-fertilizer. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) has been used for a systematic evaluation of GHG-emissions considering the local supply chain in a typical rural layer poultry farm. The analysis shows that the GHG-emissions at the poultry farm amount to 1735 KgCO 2eq /10000 eggs produced if the litter is untreated. With the installation of an anaerobic digester, the emission intensity could be reduced by 65% if the gas is used to replace LPG for cooking purposes. If 100% digested slurry is utilized as bio-fertilizer, the emissions intensity could be further reduced by 17 times compared to the case without slurry utilization. These results justify the consideration of national programs to improve conditions in poultry farms in Bangladesh. - Highlights: • This study estimates GHG-emissions reduction potential of utilizing poultry litter for energy production in a rural farm. • Energy/mass flow and GHG balances are evaluated considering the local supply chain. • On-farm activities significantly affect GHG emissions among others across the supply chain. • Biogas production and use of slurry as bio-fertilizer significantly reduces the emission intensity. • Results from LCA and sensitivity analysis have been discussed to identify key influential parameters.

  6. All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Philipp M.; Holz, Franziska

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states. - Highlights: • We analyze disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe. • Most EU countries are only weakly affected by a complete Russian supply disruption. • We find that Eastern Europe is vulnerable to Russian supply disruptions. • We identify infrastructure bottlenecks in the European natural gas network. • We find that the large EU LNG import capacity is not sufficiently connected

  7. Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puig, Daniel

    This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...

  8. Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijermars, Ruud

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

  9. Disruption mitigation using high-pressure noble gas injection on DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whyte, D.G.

    2002-01-01

    High-pressure gas jet injection of neon and argon is shown to be a simple and robust method to mitigate the deleterious effects of disruptions on the DIII-D tokamak. The gas jet penetrates to the central plasma at its sonic velocity. The deposited species dissipates ∼100% of the plasma thermal energy by radiation and substantially reduces mechanical stresses on the vessel caused by poloidal halo currents. The gas jet species charge distribution can include >50% fraction neutral species which inhibits runaway electrons. The favorable scaling of this technique to burning fusion plasmas is discussed. (author)

  10. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale

  11. Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribouillois, Hélène; Constantin, Julie; Justes, Eric

    2018-02-14

    Cover crops provide ecosystem services such as storing atmospheric carbon in soils after incorporation of their residues. Cover crops also influence soil water balance, which can be an issue in temperate climates with dry summers as for example in southern France and Europe. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand cover crops' long-term influence on greenhouse gases (GHG) and water balances to assess their potential to mitigate climate change in arable cropping systems. We used the previously calibrated and validated soil-crop model STICS to simulate scenarios of cover crop introduction to assess their influence on rainfed and irrigated cropping systems and crop rotations distributed among five contrasted sites in southern France from 2007 to 2052. Our results showed that cover crops can improve mean direct GHG balance by 315 kg CO 2 e ha -1  year -1 in the long term compared to that of bare soil. This was due mainly to an increase in carbon storage in the soil despite a slight increase in N 2 O emissions which can be compensated by adapting fertilization. Cover crops also influence the water balance by reducing mean annual drainage by 20 mm/year but increasing mean annual evapotranspiration by 20 mm/year compared to those of bare soil. Using cover crops to improve the GHG balance may help to mitigate climate change by decreasing CO 2 e emitted in cropping systems which can represent a decrease from 4.5% to 9% of annual GHG emissions of the French agriculture and forestry sector. However, if not well managed, they also could create water management issues in watersheds with shallow groundwater. Relationships between cover crop biomass and its influence on several variables such as drainage, carbon sequestration, and GHG emissions could be used to extend our results to other conditions to assess the cover crops' influence in a wider range of areas. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  13. Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    This paper assesses to what extent CO 2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO 2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO 2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO 2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO 2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO 2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO 2 emissions.

  14. Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1988-01-01

    Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

  15. The potential for biomass to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the Northeastern US. Northeast Regional Biomass Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernow, S.S.; Gurney, K.; Prince, G.; Cyr, M.

    1992-04-01

    This study, for the Northeast Regional Biomass Program (NRBP) of the Coalition of Northeast Governors (CONEG), evaluates the potential for local, state and regional biomass policies to contribute to an overall energy/biomass strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gas releases in the Northeastern United States. Biomass is a conditionally renewable resource that can play a dual role: by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in meeting our energy needs; and by removing carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it in standing biomass stocks and long-lived products. In this study we examine the contribution of biomass to the energy system in the Northeast and to the region`s net releases of carbon dioxide and methane, and project these releases over three decades, given a continuation of current trends and policies. We then compare this Reference Case with three alternative scenarios, assuming successively more aggressive efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through strategic implementation of energy efficiency and biomass resources. Finally, we identify and examine policy options for expanding the role of biomass in the region`s energy and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

  16. ¨ A Dilemma of Abundance: Governance Challenges of Reconciling Shale Gas Development and Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karena Shaw

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Shale gas proponents argue this unconventional fossil fuel offers a “bridge” towards a cleaner energy system by offsetting higher-carbon fuels such as coal. The technical feasibility of reconciling shale gas development with climate action remains contested. However, we here argue that governance challenges are both more pressing and more profound. Reconciling shale gas and climate action requires institutions capable of responding effectively to uncertainty; intervening to mandate emissions reductions and internalize costs to industry; and managing the energy system strategically towards a lower carbon future. Such policy measures prove challenging, particularly in jurisdictions that stand to benefit economically from unconventional fuels. We illustrate this dilemma through a case study of shale gas development in British Columbia, Canada, a global leader on climate policy that is nonetheless struggling to manage gas development for mitigation. The BC case is indicative of the constraints jurisdictions face both to reconcile gas development and climate action, and to manage the industry adequately to achieve social licence and minimize resistance. More broadly, the case attests to the magnitude of change required to transform our energy systems to mitigate climate change.

  17. Lessons learnt from a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation potential in the Balkans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgopoulou, E.; Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; 3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" data-affiliation=" (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" >Gakis, N.; 3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" data-affiliation=" (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" >Hontou, V.; 3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" data-affiliation=" (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, Athens GR-11471 (Greece))" >Lalas, D.P.; Steiner, D.; Tuerk, A.; Fruhmann, C.; Pucker, J.

    2015-01-01

    Balkan countries in the process of joining the European Union shall adopt greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and implement appropriate mitigation policies and measures. This paper presents a simplified methodological framework based on marginal abatement cost curves for estimating the technical and economic mitigation potential at sectoral level (buildings and road transport) in selected Balkan countries. The results of the analysis provide to decision makers useful information regarding the availability of background data, the potential for setting ambitious mitigation targets, and detailed tools for assisting the selection of policies and measures to meet these targets. The analysis performed shows that a significant part of the greenhouse gas emissions abatement potential can be achieved through win–win measures. The incorporation of environmental externalities associated with these interventions, estimated through benefits transfer, further improves the economic performance of these measures, especially in the buildings sector. Moreover, the implementation of these measures is shown to result in positive macroeconomic effects through increases in GDP (gross domestic product) and creation of new jobs. Finally, the rebound effect may restrict the estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions in the buildings of the countries examined due to the low energy performance of the existing building stock. - Highlights: • Analysis of the technical and economic GHG mitigation potential in western Balkans. • Marginal abatement cost curves highlight several win–win interventions. • Incorporation of environmental benefits improves the performance of measures. • Mitigation measures result in significant positive macroeconomic effects. • The investment costs and the rebound effect may influence measures' effectiveness.

  18. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  19. The Influence of Urban Soil Rehabilitation on Soil Carbon Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emission, and Stormwater Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yujuan

    2013-01-01

    Global urbanization has resulted in rapidly increased urban land. Soils are the foundation that supports plant growth and human activities in urban areas. Furthermore, urban soils have potential to provide a carbon sink to mitigate greenhouse gas emission and climate change. However, typical urban land development practices including vegetation clearing, topsoil removal, stockpiling, compaction, grading and building result in degraded soils. In this work, we evaluated an urban soil rehabilita...

  20. Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US Massive Gas Injection Disruption Mitigation System Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadwallader, Lee C. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-10-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a candidate design for the ITER Disruption Mitigation System. This candidate is the Massive Gas Injection System that provides machine protection in a plasma disruption event. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data as well as some data calculated from operating facilities, and the failure events were ranked for their criticality to system operation.

  1. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  2. Sustainability of UK shale gas in comparison with other electricity options: Current situation and future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jasmin; Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

    2018-04-01

    Many countries are considering exploitation of shale gas but its overall sustainability is currently unclear. Previous studies focused mainly on environmental aspects of shale gas, largely in the US, with scant information on socio-economic aspects. To address this knowledge gap, this paper integrates for the first time environmental, economic and social aspects of shale gas to evaluate its overall sustainability. The focus is on the UK which is on the cusp of developing a shale gas industry. Shale gas is compared to other electricity options for the current situation and future scenarios up to the year 2030 to investigate whether it can contribute towards a more sustainable electricity mix in the UK. The results obtained through multi-criteria decision analysis suggest that, when equal importance is assumed for each of the three sustainability aspects shale gas ranks seventh out of nine electricity options, with wind and solar PV being the best and coal the worst options. However, it outranks biomass and hydropower. Changing the importance of the sustainability aspects widely, the ranking of shale gas ranges between fourth and eighth. For shale gas to become the most sustainable option of those assessed, large improvements would be needed, including a 329-fold reduction in environmental impacts and 16 times higher employment, along with simultaneous large changes (up to 10,000 times) in the importance assigned to each criterion. Similar changes would be needed if it were to be comparable to conventional or liquefied natural gas, biomass, nuclear or hydropower. The results also suggest that a future electricity mix (2030) would be more sustainable with a lower rather than a higher share of shale gas. These results serve to inform UK policy makers, industry and non-governmental organisations. They will also be of interest to other countries considering exploitation of shale gas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Operational experience in mitigating flammable gas releases from Hanford Site Tank 241-SY-101

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentsch, J.W.; Babad, H.; Kirch, N.W.

    1995-01-01

    Flammable gases consisting of hydrogen, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and methane are periodically released from Hanford Site waste tank 241-SY-101 at concentrations above the flammable limit. A large mixer pump installed in the tank in 1993 has effectively mitigated this problem by continuously releasing small amounts of the flammable gases at the rate they are generated. Tank 241-SY-101 is also equipped with multiple high-sensitivity gas monitoring systems and level detection systems to measure the quantity of gas that is retained in and released from the waste

  4. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  5. Scenario of gas-charged sediments and gas hydrates in the western continental margin of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Karisiddaiah, S.M.; SubbaRaju, L.V.

    -charged sediments and pockmarks in the shelf and gas hydrate horizons along the slope and rise. The presence of the zones of incoherent reflections accompanied by lack of acoustic penetration and the presence of discontinuous high-intensity reflections in the form...

  6. Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

  7. Fuel demand projections and comparison of CO2 mitigation scenarios for Brazil until 2035; Projecoes de demanda de combustiveis e comparacao entre cenarios de mitigacao das emissoes de CO2 para o Brasil ate 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribas, Rodrigo Pacheco; Araujo, Maria Silvia Muylaert de; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio Vasconcelo de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Silva, Neilton Fidelis da; Campos, Antonio F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil); Campos, Christiano Pires de; Gutierres, Ricardo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento; Lampreia, Joao [Agencia Internacional de Energia (IEA), Paris (France)

    2012-07-01

    This article results from work undertaken by the technical cooperation between the Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center of PETROBRAS (CENPES/PETROBRAS) and the International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG/Coppe/UFRJ), evaluates how the Oil Sector and the fuels demand (petroleum and natural gas) from Brazil will be impacted in the short, medium and long term for current climate change mitigation policies, as for possible proposals to the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012). Thus, emission scenarios were developed by 2035 as among the main greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), considering data from the World Energy Outlook 2010 / International Energy Agency (IEA), the Second National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) and the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE), from the Energy Research Company (EPE) / Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). (author)

  8. Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwook Yoon

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement, 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000, 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500, and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000. The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.

  9. National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

  10. Long-run implications for developing countries of joint implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, A.; Bulte, E.; Folmer, H.

    1999-01-01

    Joint Implementation (JI) calls for cooperation between industrialized and developing countries in the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a major concern of potential host countries is that if they utilize their low-cost options for JI now, they will be left with only high cost options in the future, thereby penalizing them at a time when they may be obligated to mitigate GHGs themselves. This paper formalizes this hypothesis by utilizing an optimal control framework analogous to the Hotelling model of non-renewable resource extraction. The results are that cumulative abatement effects can impose costs on the future, but that they can be offset by technological change, market power, or compensation. 11 refs

  11. Effects of Yucca schidigera on gas mitigation in livestock production: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng-Sheng Sun

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Yucca schidigera extract (YSE has received much interest in the application of manure deodorization and hazardous gas mitigation in livestock rearing conditions. The main objective of this review article was to summarize the current knowledge regarding YSE towards its gas mitigation from livestock excrement. Saponins have been considered to be vital components of YSE in odor control and gas reduction in intensive farming industry due to their potentials in lowering methane for ruminants and ammonia for monogastric animals. This review article mainly covered the studies in ruminants, especially focused on in vitro environment. It also summarized possible reasons of the conflicting results among studies from the perspective of experimental design such as incubation time (in vitro or storage time of manure, and some other factors such as feed source and dietary composition. In addition to traditional dietary inclusion of YSE alone, recent studies prone to apply YSE in new ways such as combining it with other natural compounds or using it to treat manure directly. Until now, there are still controversies in terms of the effectiveness of YSE in intensive-farming environment among researches, therefore further deeper studies on the expression of YSE bioactivity are needed, especially on the molecular level.

  12. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eory, Vera; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Moran, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ► We incorporated the co-effects on NH 3 , NO 3 − , P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ► Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ► Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ► Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  13. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Rural Household Biogas Systems in China: A Life Cycle Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hou

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural household biogas (RHB systems are at a crossroads in China, yet there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of their energy and climate (greenhouse gas mitigation efficiency under typical operating conditions. We combined data from monitoring projects and questionnaire surveys across hundreds of households from two typical Chinese villages within a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA framework to assess net GHG (greenhouse gas mitigation by RHB systems operated in different contexts. We modelled biogas production, measured biogas losses and used survey data from biogas and non-biogas households to derive empirical RHB system substitution rates for energy and fertilizers. Our results indicate that poorly designed and operated RHB systems in northern regions of China may in fact increase farm household GHG emissions by an average of 2668 kg CO2-eq· year−1, compared with a net mitigation effect of 6336 kg CO2-eq per household and year in southern regions. Manure treatment (104 and 8513 kg CO2-eq mitigation and biogas leakage (-533 and -2489 kg CO2-eq emission are the two most important factors affecting net GHG mitigation by RHB systems in northern and southern China, respectively. In contrast, construction (−173 and −305 kg CO2-eq emission, energy substitution (−522 emission and 653 kg·CO2-eq mitigation and nutrient substitution (−1544 and −37 kg CO2-eq emission made small contributions across the studied systems. In fact, survey data indicated that biogas households had higher energy and fertilizer use, implying no net substitution effect. Low biogas yields in the cold northern climate and poor maintenance services were cited as major reasons for RHB abandonment by farmers. We conclude that the design and management of RHB systems needs to be revised and better adapted to local climate (e.g., digester insulation and household energy demand (biogas storage and micro power generators to avoid discharge of unburned biogas

  14. Policy and tecnological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smith, P

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available and ecological processes involved in trace gas emissions and carbon storage in agricultural systems makes investors more wary of these options than the more clear-cut industrial mitigation activities. This barrier can be reduced by investment in research... and changing lifestyles in some developing countries, most notably in China, are causing a growing demand for meat and dairy products. Meat demand in developing countries rose from 11 to �1 �1 3119 3184 +19 502 760 792 +22 142 99 106 +81 48 2260 2286...

  15. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  16. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Formulation and evaluation of gas release scenarios for the silo in Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsson, J.; Moreno, L.

    1992-01-01

    The Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR) has been in operation since 1988 and is located in the crystalline rock, 60 m below the Baltic Sea. In the licensing procedure for the SFR the safety assessment has been complemented with a detailed scenario analysis of the performance of the repository. The scenarios include the influence on radionuclide release by gas formation and gas transport processes in the silo. The overall conclusion is that the release of most radionuclides from the silo is only marginally affected by the formation and release of gas, even for scenarios considering unexpected events. The largest effects were found for short-lived radionuclides and radionuclides that have no or low sorption ability. Except for very extreme scenarios for the silo the overall impact from repository on the environment is by far dominated by the release of radionuclides from the rock vaults. 10 refs., 6 figs

  18. Sectoral approaches establishment for climate change mitigation in Thailand upstream oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaiyapa, Warathida; Esteban, Miguel; Kameyama, Yasuko

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry's responses to climate change and what factors can be influential to trigger their mitigation strategies is crucial for policy-makers to harness the huge resources that this industry can mobilize towards environmental protection. Considering that individual climate change efforts are unlikely to affect global mitigation paths, the study investigates the possibility that sectoral approaches can help in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, using Thailand as a case study. It conducted online questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews to acquire primary data from companies and key informants from the government, NGOs, NPOs and academics. The results suggested that, among three possible groups of factors that could affect company decisions on whether to promote sectoral approaches, domestic politics (particularly the Thai government) is the most important, though other factors also play important and interrelated roles. The most welcomed type of scheme that could be envisaged would appear to be a sectoral agreement between government and industry. Finally, the authors provide two main policy recommendations, namely the establishment of an industrial association of O&G companies and for it to target how to start looking at measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions amongst large companies in the sector. - Highlights: •Examining the possibility of establishing a sectoral approach Thailand's upstream O&G industry. •Analytical framework was constructed to ascertain most influential factors. •Questionnaires and interviews were employed with companies, government, NGOs and academic. •Domestic politics is the most determining factor, but other factors have strong interrelation. •Sectoral agreement between government and industry is the most likely scheme to be established.

  19. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP van; Fengqi Zhou; Vries HJM de; Kejun Jiang; Graveland C; Yun Li; Energy Research Institute,; MNV

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study reported here was to explore possible baseline developments and available options for mitigating emissions in China. The first part of the report deals with an analysis and overview of available data on historic energy production and consumption trends and current energy

  20. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  1. Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

  2. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of short-rotation-coppice based generation of electricity in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Kern, J.; Balasus, A.; Prochnow, A. [Leibniz Inst. of Agricultural Engineering, Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    The generation of energy from wood biomass may help secure local energy supplies and reduce the greenhouse effect by substituting fossil resources with bio-based ones. In the case of short rotation coppice (SRC), bio-based resources can be generated by extensive agricultural production systems. They produce less carbon dioxide equivalent (CO{sub 2eq}) emissions than fossil resources. This paper reported on a study in which a model system was developed for a regional supply chain producing second generation bioenergy generated from SRC in eastern Germany. The study focuses on the generation of electricity and was compared to a business-as-usual reference system, based on the latest CO{sub 2} mitigation factors for renewable energies in the German power-generation mix. A life cycle assessment based on greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories was also conducted in which other factors were also considered, such as options for nutrient cycling. The key determinants for GHG mitigation with SRC were also discussed with regards to indirect land-use effects resulting from increased demand for land.

  3. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from China's cities: Case study of Suzhou

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Hongsheng; Wang, Yunxia; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Miaomiao; Zhang, Yanxia; Zhang, Rongrong; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the factors driving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is crucial to mitigating China's anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, the main drivers increasing GHG emissions from the Chinese city of Suzhou between 2005 and 2010 were identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Kaya identity and the log-mean Divisia index method. We found that economy and population were the major drivers of GHG emissions in Suzhou, having contributed 162.20% and 109.04%, respectively, to the increase in emissions. A decline in carbon intensity, which was caused by the declining energy intensity and an adjustment to the mixture of power and industrial structures, was the major determinant and accounted for a reduction of 171.24% in GHG emissions. Slowing and maintaining healthy growth rates of economy and population could be the primary and most effective means if Suzhou tries to curb the total emissions over the short term. It may be more realistic for Suzhou to control emissions by optimizing the economic structure for low-carbon industrial development because of the city's relative high energy requirements and low potential to mitigate GHGs by adjusting the energy mixture. - Highlights: • Per capita carbon emissions in Suzhou kept stable at 15 tons/year during period 2005–2010. • Slowing down growth rates of GDP and population could effectively control Suzhou's emissions. • Low carbon development policies were also recommended for other Chinese cities

  4. Emerging Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies for the Pulp and Paper Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kong, Lingbo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-11-01

    The pulp and paper industry ranks fourth in terms of energy consumption among industries worldwide. Globally, the pulp and paper industry accounted for approximately 5 percent of total world industrial final energy consumption in 2007, and contributed 2 percent of direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industry. Worldwide pulp and paper demand and production are projected to increase significantly by 2050, leading to an increase in this industry’s absolute energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Development of new energy-efficiency and GHG mitigation technologies and their deployment in the market will be crucial for the pulp and paper industry’s mid- and long-term climate change mitigation strategies. This report describes the industry’s processes and compiles available information on the energy savings, environmental and other benefits, costs, commercialization status, and references for 36 emerging technologies to reduce the industry’s energy use and GHG emissions. Although studies from around the world identify a variety of sector-specific and cross-cutting energy-efficiency technologies that have already been commercialized for the pulp and paper industry, information is scarce and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy-efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet commercialized. The purpose of this report is to provide engineers, researchers, investors, paper companies, policy makers, and other interested parties with easy access to a well-structured resource of information on these technologies.

  5. Energy-saving options for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the Mongolian energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorjpurev, J.; Purevjal, O.; Erdenechimeg, Ch. [and others

    1996-12-31

    The Energy sector is the largest contributor to GHG emission in Mongolia. The Energy sector emits 54 percent of CO2 and 4 percent of methane. All emissions of other greenhouse gases are accounted from energy related activities. The activities in this sector include coal production, fuel combustion, and biomass combustion at the thermal power stations and in private houses (stoves) for heating purposes. This paper presents some important Demand-side options considered for mitigation of CO2 emissions from energy sector such as Energy Conservation in Industrial Sector and in Buildings. Changes in energy policies and programmes in the Mongolian situation that promote more efficient and sustainable practices are presented in the paper. These energy saving measures will not only help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but will also promote economic development and alleviate other environmental problems.

  6. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powell, Thomas W R; Lenton, Timothy M

    2013-01-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species–energy and species–area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect. (letter)

  7. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2013-06-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

  8. Greenhouse gas mitigation for U.S. plastics production: energy first, feedstocks later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posen, I. Daniel; Jaramillo, Paulina; Landis, Amy E.; Griffin, W. Michael

    2017-03-01

    Plastics production is responsible for 1% and 3% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy use, respectively. Replacing conventional plastics with bio-based plastics (made from renewable feedstocks) is frequently proposed as a way to mitigate these impacts. Comparatively little research has considered the potential for green energy to reduce emissions in this industry. This paper compares two strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. plastics production: using renewable energy or switching to renewable feedstocks. Renewable energy pathways assume all process energy comes from wind power and renewable natural gas derived from landfill gas. Renewable feedstock pathways assume that all commodity thermoplastics will be replaced with polylactic acid (PLA) and bioethylene-based plastics, made using either corn or switchgrass, and powered using either conventional or renewable energy. Corn-based biopolymers produced with conventional energy are the dominant near-term biopolymer option, and can reduce industry-wide GHG emissions by 25%, or 16 million tonnes CO2e/year (mean value). In contrast, switching to renewable energy cuts GHG emissions by 50%-75% (a mean industry-wide reduction of 38 million tonnes CO2e/year). Both strategies increase industry costs—by up to 85/tonne plastic (mean result) for renewable energy, and up to 3000 tonne-1 plastic for renewable feedstocks. Overall, switching to renewable energy achieves greater emission reductions, with less uncertainty and lower costs than switching to corn-based biopolymers. In the long run, producing bio-based plastics from advanced feedstocks (e.g. switchgrass) and/or with renewable energy can further reduce emissions, to approximately 0 CO2e/year (mean value).

  9. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  10. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  11. Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

    1998-12-31

    Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

  12. Pollutant swapping: greenhouse gas emissions from wetland systems constructed to mitigate agricultural pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Adam; Quinton, John; Surridge, Ben; McNamara, Niall

    2014-05-01

    Diffuse (non-point) water pollution from agricultural land continues to challenge water quality management, requiring the adoption of new land management practices. The use of constructed agricultural wetlands is one such practice, designed to trap multiple pollutants mobilised by rainfall prior to them reaching receiving water. Through capturing and storing pollutants in bottom sediments, it could be hypothesised that the abundance of nutrients stored in the anoxic conditions commonly found in these zones may lead to pollutant swapping. Under these circumstances, trapped material may undergo biogeochemical cycling to change chemical or physical form and thereby become more problematic or mobile within the environment. Thus, constructed agricultural wetlands designed to mitigate against one form of pollution may in fact offset the created benefits by 'swapping' this pollution into other forms and pathways, such as through release to the atmosphere. Pollutant swapping to the atmosphere has been noted in analogous wetland systems designed to treat municipal and industrial wastewaters, with significant fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O being recorded in some cases. However the small size, low level of engineering and variable nutrient/sediment inputs which are features of constructed agricultural wetlands, means that this knowledge is not directly transferable. Therefore, more information is required when assessing whether a wetland's potential to act as hotspot for pollution swapping outweighs its potential to act as a mitigation tool for surface water pollution. Here we present results from an on-going monitoring study at a trial agricultural wetland located in small a mixed-use catchment in Cumbria, UK. Estimates were made of CH4, CO2 and N2O flux from the wetland surface using adapted floating static chambers, which were then directly compared with fluxes from an undisturbed riparian zone. Results indicate that while greenhouse gas flux from the wetland may be

  13. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation from changes to crop root mass and architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paustian, Keith [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Campbell, Nell [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Dorich, Chris [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Marx, Ernest [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Swan, Amy [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States)

    2016-01-29

    Reducing (and eventually reversing) the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to human activities, and thus reducing the extent and severity of anthropogenic climate change, is one of the great challenges facing humanity. While most of the man-caused increase in GHGs has been due to fossil fuel use, land use (including agriculture) currently accounts for about 25% of total GHG emissions and thus there is a need to include emission reductions from the land use sector as part of an effective climate change mitigation strategy. In addition, analyses included in the recent IPCC 5th Climate Change Assessment report suggests that it may not be possible to achieve large enough emissions reductions in the energy, transport and industrial sectors alone to stabilize GHG concentrations at a level commensurate with a less than 2°C global average temperature increase, without the help of a substantial CO2 sink (i.e., atmospheric CO2 removal) from the land use sector. One of the potential carbon sinks that could contribute to this goal is increasing C storage in soil organic matter on managed lands. This report details a preliminary scoping analysis, to assess the potential agricultural area in the US – where appropriate soil, climate and land use conditions exist – to determine the land area on which ‘improved root phenotype’ crops could be deployed and to evaluate the potential long-term soil C storage, given a set of ‘bounding scenarios’ of increased crop root input and/or rooting depth for major crop species (e.g., row crops (corn, sorghum, soybeans), small grains (wheat, barley, oats), and hay and pasture perennial forages). The enhanced root phenotype scenarios assumed 25, 50 and 100% increase in total root C inputs, in combination with five levels of modifying crop root distributions (i.e., no change and four scenarios with increasing downward shift in root distributions). We also analyzed impacts of greater root

  14. Health and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of ambitious expansion of cycling, walking, and transit in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maizlish, Neil; Linesch, Nicholas J; Woodcock, James

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to quantify health co-benefits and carbon reductions of preferred scenarios of California regional transportation plans and alternatives with ambitious levels of active transport. The alternatives were designed to examine the efficacy of independent contributions of walking, bicycling, and transit at levels consistent with the U.S. Surgeon General recommendation for physical activity. Using data from travel and health surveys, vital statistics, collision databases, and outputs from regional and statewide travel models, the Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model estimated the change in the population disease burden, as measured by deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs), due to a shift from a 2010 baseline travel pattern to an alternative. Health pathways modeled were physical activity and road traffic injuries. The preferred scenarios increased statewide active transport from 40.5 to 53.4 min person -1  w -1 , which was associated with an annual decrease of 909 deaths and 16,089 DALYs. Sensitivity analyses that accounted for 2040 projected age- and sex-specific population characteristics and cause-specific mortality rates did not appreciably alter the annual change in deaths and DALYs on a population basis. The ambitious, maximal alternatives increased population mean travel duration to 283 min person -1  w -1 for walking, bicycling, or transit and were associated a reduction in deaths and DALYs from 2.5 to 12 times greater than the California preferred scenarios. The alternative with the largest health impact was bicycling 283 min person -1  w -1 which led to 8,543 fewer annual deaths and 194,003 fewer DALYs, despite an increase in bicyclist injuries. With anticipated population growth, no alternative achieved decreases in carbon emissions but bicycling had the greatest potential for slowing their growth. Alternatives that included transit similarly reduced carbon emissions, but with less health benefit

  15. The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Islam, Syed Faiz Ul; Groenigen, van Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann; Sander, Bjoern Ole; Neergaard, de Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation in

  16. Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Xu, Liyi; Snyder, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Scientific challenges exist on how to extract information from the wide range of projected impacts simulated by crop models driven by climate ensembles. A stronger focus is required to understand and identify the mechanisms and drivers of projected changes in crop yield. In this study, we investigate the robustness of future projections of five metrics relevant to agriculture stakeholders (accumulated frost days, dry days, growing season length, plant heat stress and start of field operations). We use a large ensemble of climate simulations by the MIT IGSM-CAM integrated assessment model that accounts for the uncertainty associated with different emissions scenarios, climate sensitivities, and representations of natural variability. By the end of the century, the US is projected to experience fewer frosts, a longer growing season, more heat stress and an earlier start of field operations—although the magnitude and even the sign of these changes vary greatly by regions. Projected changes in dry days are shown not to be robust. We highlight the important role of natural variability, in particular for changes in dry days (a precipitation-related index) and heat stress (a threshold index). The wide range of our projections compares well the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, especially for temperature-related indices. This suggests that using a single climate model that accounts for key sources of uncertainty can provide an efficient and complementary framework to the more common approach of multi-model ensembles. We also show that greenhouse gas mitigation has the potential to significantly reduce adverse effects (heat stress, risks of pest and disease) of climate change on agriculture, while also curtailing potentially beneficial impacts (earlier planting, possibility for multiple cropping). A major benefit of climate mitigation is potentially preventing changes in several indices to emerge from the noise of natural variability, even by 2100. This has major implications

  17. National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

    2010-01-01

    An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

  18. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in China's agriculture: from farm production to food consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Qian; Cheng, Kun; Pan, Genxing

    2016-04-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture could be mitigated from both supple side and demand side. Assessing carbon footprint (CF) of agricultural production and food consumption could provide insights into the contribution of agriculture to climate change and help to identify possible GHG mitigation options. In the present study, CF of China's agricultural production was firstly assessed from site scale to national scale, and from crop production to livestock production. Data for the crop and livestock production were collected from field survey and national statistical archive, and both life cycle assessment and input-output method were employed in the estimations. In general, CF of crop production was lower than that of livestock production on average. Rice production ranked the highest CF in crop production, and the highest CFs of livestock production were observed in mutton and beef production. Methane emissions from rice paddy, emissions from fertilizer application and water irrigation exerted the largest contribution of more than 50% for CF of crop production; however, emissions from forage feeding, enteric fermentation and manure treatment made the most proportion of more than 90 % for CF of livestock production. In China, carbon efficiency was shown in a decreasing trend in recent years. According to the present study, overuse of nitrogen fertilizer caused no yield effect but significant emissions in some sites and regions of China, and aggregated farms lowered the CFs of crop production and livestock production by 3% to 25% and 6% to 60% respectively compared to household farms. Given these, improving farming management efficiency and farm intensive development is the key strategy to mitigate climate change from supply side. However, changes in food consumption may reduce GHG emissions in the production chain through a switch to the consumption of food with higher GHG emissions in the production process to food with lower GHG emissions. Thus, CFs

  19. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Jean; Pipatti, Riitta; Hashimoto, Seiji; Diaz, Cristobal; Mareckova, Katarina; Diaz, Luis; Kjeldsen, Peter; Monni, Suvi; Faaij, Andre; Gao, Qingxian; Zhang, Tianzhu; Ahmed, Mohammed Abdelrafie; Sutamihardja, R T M; Gregory, Robert

    2008-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints

  20. Developing a dynamic life cycle greenhouse gas emission inventory for wood construction for two different end-of-life scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard D. Bergman; James Salazar; Scott Bowe

    2012-01-01

    Static life cycle assessment does not fully describe the carbon footprint of construction wood because of carbon changes in the forest and product pools over time. This study developed a dynamic greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approach using US Forest Service and life-cycle data to estimate GHG emissions on construction wood for two different end-of-life scenarios....

  1. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  2. Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-08-01

    Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

  4. Fugitive emission inventory from Brazilian oil and gas industry (2000-2005) and discussion of mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carloni, Flavia A.; D' Avignon, Alexandre; La Rovere, Emilio L. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Centro Clima

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate current emissions of GHGs within the Brazilian oil and gas industry, specifically the fugitive emissions arising from exploration and production. Besides, projects for mitigating these emissions and opportunities for the national industry are investigated. Results show that N{sub 2}O contributes little to fugitive emissions from the oil and gas industry, principally from gas sector. NMVOC emissions are significant, principally from the oil sector. In relation to CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} emissions, the oil sector emits more CO{sub 2} while the gas sector contributes more to CH{sub 4} emissions. In both sectors flaring is the activity that emits most CO{sub 2}. In relation to CH{sub 4} the principal contribution to emissions are from exploration and production onshore, although offshore activities as a whole play a greater part in the national industry. The results make it clear that the use of gas from flaring activity is a great opportunity for emission mitigation projects. From a business point of view, methane emissions could mean lost opportunities in selling natural gas. The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, as the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation actions, provide the opportunity to stimulate investments in projects for reducing flaring and venting of associated gas. (author)

  5. Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Müller, Christoph; Weindl, Isabelle; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Wang, Xiaoxi

    2017-01-03

    The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.

  6. Measuring and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production in the US Great Plains, 1870-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parton, William J; Gutmann, Myron P; Merchant, Emily R; Hartman, Melannie D; Adler, Paul R; McNeal, Frederick M; Lutz, Susan M

    2015-08-25

    The Great Plains region of the United States is an agricultural production center for the global market and, as such, an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses historical agricultural census data and ecosystem models to estimate the magnitude of annual GHG fluxes from all agricultural sources (e.g., cropping, livestock raising, irrigation, fertilizer production, tractor use) in the Great Plains from 1870 to 2000. Here, we show that carbon (C) released during the plow-out of native grasslands was the largest source of GHG emissions before 1930, whereas livestock production, direct energy use, and soil nitrous oxide emissions are currently the largest sources. Climatic factors mediate these emissions, with cool and wet weather promoting C sequestration and hot and dry weather increasing GHG release. This analysis demonstrates the long-term ecosystem consequences of both historical and current agricultural activities, but also indicates that adoption of available alternative management practices could substantially mitigate agricultural GHG fluxes, ranging from a 34% reduction with a 25% adoption rate to as much as complete elimination with possible net sequestration of C when a greater proportion of farmers adopt new agricultural practices.

  7. Measuring and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production in the US Great Plains, 1870–2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parton, William J.; Gutmann, Myron P.; Merchant, Emily R.; Hartman, Melannie D.; Adler, Paul R.; McNeal, Frederick M.; Lutz, Susan M.

    2015-01-01

    The Great Plains region of the United States is an agricultural production center for the global market and, as such, an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses historical agricultural census data and ecosystem models to estimate the magnitude of annual GHG fluxes from all agricultural sources (e.g., cropping, livestock raising, irrigation, fertilizer production, tractor use) in the Great Plains from 1870 to 2000. Here, we show that carbon (C) released during the plow-out of native grasslands was the largest source of GHG emissions before 1930, whereas livestock production, direct energy use, and soil nitrous oxide emissions are currently the largest sources. Climatic factors mediate these emissions, with cool and wet weather promoting C sequestration and hot and dry weather increasing GHG release. This analysis demonstrates the long-term ecosystem consequences of both historical and current agricultural activities, but also indicates that adoption of available alternative management practices could substantially mitigate agricultural GHG fluxes, ranging from a 34% reduction with a 25% adoption rate to as much as complete elimination with possible net sequestration of C when a greater proportion of farmers adopt new agricultural practices. PMID:26240366

  8. Techno-Economic Evaluation of Technologies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions at North American Refineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motazedi, Kavan; Abella, Jessica P; Bergerson, Joule A

    2017-02-07

    A petroleum refinery model, Petroleum Refinery Life-cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM), that estimates energy use and CO 2 emissions was modified to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of a set of technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions at refineries. Cogeneration of heat and power (CHP), carbon capture at fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) and steam methane reformer (SMR) units, and alternative hydrogen production technologies were considered in the analysis. The results indicate that a 3-44% reduction in total annual refinery CO 2 emissions (2-24% reductions in the CO 2 emissions on a per barrel of crude oil processed) can be achieved in a medium conversion refinery that processes a typical U.S. crude slate obtained by using the technologies considered. A sensitivity analysis of the quality of input crude to a refinery, refinery configuration, and prices of natural gas and electricity revealed how the magnitude of possible CO 2 emissions reductions and the economic performance of the mitigation technologies can vary under different conditions. The analysis can help inform decision making related to investment decisions and CO 2 emissions policy in the refining sector.

  9. Strategies to Optimize Microbially-Mediated Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Landfill Cover Soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeremy Semrau; Sung-Woo Lee; Jeongdae Im; Sukhwan Yoon; Michael Barcelona

    2010-09-30

    The overall objective of this project, 'Strategies to Optimize Microbially-Mediated Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Landfill Cover Soils' was to develop effective, efficient, and economic methodologies by which microbial production of nitrous oxide can be minimized while also maximizing microbial consumption of methane in landfill cover soils. A combination of laboratory and field site experiments found that the addition of nitrogen and phenylacetylene stimulated in situ methane oxidation while minimizing nitrous oxide production. Molecular analyses also indicated that methane-oxidizing bacteria may play a significant role in not only removing methane, but in nitrous oxide production as well, although the contribution of ammonia-oxidizing archaea to nitrous oxide production can not be excluded at this time. Future efforts to control both methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landfills as well as from other environments (e.g., agricultural soils) should consider these issues. Finally, a methanotrophic biofiltration system was designed and modeled for the promotion of methanotrophic activity in local methane 'hotspots' such as landfills. Model results as well as economic analyses of these biofilters indicate that the use of methanotrophic biofilters for controlling methane emissions is technically feasible, and provided either the costs of biofilter construction and operation are reduced or the value of CO{sub 2} credits is increased, can also be economically attractive.

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete

    2017-01-16

    Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 rice, 45.54 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

  11. Mitigating the greenhouse gas balance of ruminant production systems through carbon sequestration in grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soussana, J F; Tallec, T; Blanfort, V

    2010-03-01

    Soil carbon sequestration (enhanced sinks) is the mechanism responsible for most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential in the agriculture sector. Carbon sequestration in grasslands can be determined directly by measuring changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and indirectly by measuring the net balance of C fluxes. A literature search shows that grassland C sequestration reaches on average 5 ± 30 g C/m2 per year according to inventories of SOC stocks and -231 and 77 g C/m2 per year for drained organic and mineral soils, respectively, according to C flux balance. Off-site C sequestration occurs whenever more manure C is produced by than returned to a grassland plot. The sum of on- and off-site C sequestration reaches 129, 98 and 71 g C/m2 per year for grazed, cut and mixed European grasslands on mineral soils, respectively, however with high uncertainty. A range of management practices reduce C losses and increase C sequestration: (i) avoiding soil tillage and the conversion of grasslands to arable use, (ii) moderately intensifying nutrient-poor permanent grasslands, (iii) using light grazing instead of heavy grazing, (iv) increasing the duration of grass leys; (v) converting grass leys to grass-legume mixtures or to permanent grasslands. With nine European sites, direct emissions of N2O from soil and of CH4 from enteric fermentation at grazing, expressed in CO2 equivalents, compensated 10% and 34% of the on-site grassland C sequestration, respectively. Digestion inside the barn of the harvested herbage leads to further emissions of CH4 and N2O by the production systems, which were estimated at 130 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year. The net balance of on- and off-site C sequestration, CH4 and N2O emissions reached 38 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year, indicating a non-significant net sink activity. This net balance was, however, negative for intensively managed cut sites indicating a source to the atmosphere. In conclusion, this review confirms that

  12. Finding robust investments for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050 by a scenario study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weidenaar, Teade; Bekkering, E.; Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Hoekstra, Sipke; Wolters, Mannes

    2013-01-01

    In the changing Dutch energy market, the ageing gas distribution grid needs investments. There is, however, a large uncertainty regarding certain aspects that affect the future role of this gas distribution grid, such as the eventual share of biomethane in the gas mix, whether power-to-gas will

  13. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  14. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  15. Biofuel use assessments in Africa. Implications for greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kgathi, D.L.; Zhou, P.

    1995-01-01

    The energy balances of most African countries suggest that biofuels (wood fuel, crop and wood dues, and dung) constitute the largest share of total energy consumption (up to 97% in some sub-Saharan African countries). There is, however an increasing scarcity of wood fuel (fuel wood and charcoal), the major biofuel, and a feared increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with biofuel combustion. The extent of GHG emissions is estimated from biofuel consumption levels that are in turn based on methodologies that might be inaccurate. A questionnaire, supplemented by informal interviews, are used to collect data, yielding information regarding end-uses, technologies used, scale of consumption, determinants of fuel consumption, and interfuel substitution (among other parameters). The survey revealed that cooking is the major end-use, with other common uses, such as space and water heating. Improved stoves that provide better combustion efficiency and, thus, reduce wood fuel consumption have not been widely disseminated and are associated with higher methane emissions than open fires. More than 90% of the households in Africa use open fires. Consumption is presented as per capita for households and as products and quantity of fuel in the small scale industries, commercial, and public sectors. Among the determinants for biofuel consumption are affordability, availability of the fuel, and interfuel substitutions. Flaws in estimating biofuel consumption yield large uncertainties in GHG emissions, with implications for the development of policies on energy planning and environmental protection. However, the application of scenarios can guide policy formulation. 5 tabs., 42 refs

  16. Biofuel use assessments in Africa: Implications for greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kgathi, D L; Zhou, P

    1995-01-01

    The energy balances of most African countries suggest that biofuels (woodfuel, crop and wood residues, and dung) constitute the largest share of total energy consumption (up to 97% in some sub-Saharan Africa countries). There is, however, an increasing scarcity of woodfuel (fuelwood and charcoal), the major biofuel, and a feared increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with biofuel combustion. The extent of GHG emissions is estimated from biofuel consumption levels that are in turn based on methodologies that might be inaccurate. A questionnaire, supplemented by informal interviews, are used to collect data, yielding information regarding end-uses, technologies used, scale of consumption, determinants of fuel consumption, and interfuel substitution (among other parameters). The survey revealed that cooking is the major end-use, with other common uses, such as space and water heating. Improved stoves that provide better combustion efficiency and, thus, reduce woodfuel consumption have not been widely disseminated and are associated with higher methane emissions than open fires. More than 90% of the households in Africa use open fires. Consumption is presented as per capita for households and as products and quantity of fuel in the small scale industries, commercial, and public sectors. Among the determinants for biofuel consumption are affordability, availability of the fuel, and interfuel substitutions. Flaws in estimating biofuel consumption yield large uncertainties in GHG emissions, with implications for the development of policies on energy planning and environmental protection. However, the application of scenarios can guide policy formulation.

  17. Energy trend scenario and greenhouse gas emission by 2030; Scenario energetique tendanciel et emissions de gaz a effet de serre a l'horizon 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavergne, R.; Kehr, J.M. [Commissariat General au Developpement Durable, 45 - Orleans (France)

    2008-07-01

    The authors present and comment the possible evolutions of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption in France by 2030 while taking the existing situation into account, i.e. before the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement'. Tables and graphs are displaying the evolutions of CO{sub 2} emissions for different sectors (transports, housing and office buildings, industry, agriculture, electricity production). Different scenarios are described and assessed in terms of final energy consumption. Then, the author discusses various hypotheses and evolution modelling for the energy demand by the different sectors, for the electricity production distribution among the different energy sources, for oil production, and for electricity demand-supply equilibrium. They discuss the slowing down trend for the growth of primary and final energy consumption.

  18. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-02-22

    To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO 2 e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olander, Lydia P.; Cooley, David M.; Galik, Christopher S.

    2012-03-01

    Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

  20. The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

    2012-03-01

    Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

  1. A greenhouse-gas information system monitoring and validating emissions reporting and mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonietz, Karl K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dimotakis, Paul E [JPL/CAL TECH; Roman, Douglas A [LLNL; Walker, Bruce C [SNL

    2011-09-26

    Current GHG-mitigating regimes, whether internationally agreed or self-imposed, rely on the aggregation of self-reported data, with limited checks for consistency and accuracy, for monitoring. As nations commit to more stringent GHG emissions-mitigation actions and as economic rewards or penalties are attached to emission levels, self-reported data will require independent confirmation that they are accurate and reliable, if they are to provide the basis for critical choices and actions that may be required. Supporting emissions-mitigation efforts and agreements, as well as monitoring energy- and fossil-fuel intensive national and global activities would be best achieved by a process of: (1) monitoring of emissions and emission-mitigation actions, based, in part, on, (2) (self-) reporting of pertinent bottom-up inventory data, (3) verification that reported data derive from and are consistent with agreed-upon processes and procedures, and (4) validation that reported emissions and emissions-mitigation action data are correct, based on independent measurements (top-down) derived from a suite of sensors in space, air, land, and, possibly, sea, used to deduce and attribute anthropogenic emissions. These data would be assessed and used to deduce and attribute measured GHG concentrations to anthropogenic emissions, attributed geographically and, to the extent possible, by economic sector. The validation element is needed to provide independent assurance that emissions are in accord with reported values, and should be considered as an important addition to the accepted MRV process, leading to a MRV&V process. This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a

  2. Global scale DAYCENT model analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies for cropped soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Parton, William J.; Stehfest, Elke; Heistemann, Maik; DeAngelo, Benjamin; Rose, Steven

    2009-05-01

    Conversion of native vegetation to cropland and intensification of agriculture typically result in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mainly N 2O and CH 4) and more NO 3 leached below the root zone and into waterways. Agricultural soils are often a source but can also be a sink of CO 2. Regional and larger scale estimates of GHG emissions are usually obtained using IPCC emission factor methodology, which is associated with high uncertainty. To more realistically represent GHG emissions we used the DAYCENT biogeochemical model for non-rice major crop types (corn, wheat, soybean). IPCC methodology estimates N losses from croplands based solely on N inputs. In contrast, DAYCENT accounts for soil class, daily weather, historical vegetation cover, and land management practices such as crop type, fertilizer additions, and cultivation events. Global datasets of weather, soils, native vegetation, and cropping fractions were mapped to a 1.9° × 1.9° resolution. Non-spatial data (e.g., rates and dates of fertilizer applications) were assumed to be identical within crop types across regions. We compared model generated baseline GHG emissions and N losses for irrigated and rainfed cropping with land management alternatives intended to mitigate GHG emissions. Reduced fertilizer resulted in lower N losses, but crop yields were reduced by a similar proportion. Use of nitrification inhibitors and split fertilizer applications both led to increased (~ 6%) crop yields but the inhibitor led to a larger reduction in N losses (~ 10%). No-till cultivation, which led to C storage, combined with nitrification inhibitors, resulted in reduced GHG emissions of ~ 50% and increased crop yields of ~ 7%.

  3. Evaluation of mitigation strategies in Facility Group 1 double-shell flammable-gas tanks at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Sadasivan, P.; Kubic, W.L.; White, J.R.

    1997-11-01

    Radioactive nuclear waste at the Hanford Site is stored in underground waste storage tanks at the site. The tanks fall into two main categories: single-shell tanks (SSTs) and double-shell tanks (DSTs). There are a total of 149 SSTs and 28 DSTs. The wastes stored in the tanks are chemically complex. They basically involve various sodium salts (mainly nitrite, nitrate, carbonates, aluminates, and hydroxides), organic compounds, heavy metals, and various radionuclides, including cesium, strontium, plutonium, and uranium. The waste is known to generate flammable gas (FG) [hydrogen, ammonia, nitrous oxide, hydrocarbons] by complex chemical reactions. The process of gas generation, retention, and release is transient. Some tanks reach a quasi-steady stage where gas generation is balanced by the release rate. Other tanks show continuous cycles of retention followed by episodic release. There currently are 25 tanks on the Flammable Gas Watch List (FGWL). The objective of this report is to evaluate possible mitigation strategies to eliminate the FG hazard. The evaluation is an engineering study of mitigation concepts for FG generation, retention, and release behavior in Tanks SY-101, AN-103, AN 104, An-105, and Aw-101. Where possible, limited quantification of the effects of mitigation strategies on the FG hazard also is considered. The results obtained from quantification efforts discussed in this report should be considered as best-estimate values. Results and conclusions of this work are intended to help in establishing methodologies in the contractor's controls selection analysis to develop necessary safety controls for closing the FG unreviewed safety question. The general performance requirements of any mitigation scheme are discussed first

  4. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bull, A.; Owen, J.; Quirk, G.; G, Lewis; Rudge, A.; Woolsey, I.S.

    2012-09-01

    Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors (AGRs) operated in the UK by EDF Energy have once-through boilers, which deliver superheated steam at high temperature (∼500 deg. C) and pressure (∼150 bar) to the HP turbine. The boilers have either a serpentine or helical geometry for the tubing of the main heat transfer sections of the boiler and each individual tube is fabricated from mild steel, 9%Cr1%Mo and Type 316 austenitic stainless steel tubing. Type 316 austenitic stainless steel is used for the secondary (final) superheater and steam tailpipe sections of the boiler, which, during normal operation, should operate under dry, superheated steam conditions. This is achieved by maintaining a specified margin of superheat at the upper transition joint (UTJ) between the 9%Cr1%Mo primary superheater and the Type 316 secondary superheater sections of the boiler. Operating in this mode should eliminate the possibility of stress corrosion cracking of the Type 316 tube material on-load. In recent years, however, AGRs have suffered a variety of operational problems with their boilers that have made it difficult to maintain the specified superheat margin at the UTJ. In the case of helical boilers, the combined effects of carbon deposition on the gas side and oxide deposition on the waterside of the tubing have resulted in an increasing number of austenitic tubes operating with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence the possibility of wetting the austenitic section of the boiler. Some units with serpentine boilers have suffered creep-fatigue damage of the high temperature sections of the boiler, which currently necessitates capping the steam outlet temperature to prevent further damage. The reduction in steam outlet temperature has meant that there is an increased risk of operation with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence stress corrosion cracking of the austenitic sections of the boiler. In order to establish the risk of stress

  5. Evaluating options for U.S. greenhouse-gas mitigation using multiple criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Choosing a set of policy responses to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHGs) responsible for climate change is one of the great challenges that the United States faces in the coming years. This paper develops a framework for evaluating GHG-mitigation polic...

  6. Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to

  7. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentham, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  8. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

    2011-01-01

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  9. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-07-15

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  10. Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

    2016-01-01

    In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

  11. Biochars mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and bioaccumulation of potentially toxic elements and arsenic speciation in Phaseolus vulgaris L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Muhammad; Li, Gang; Khan, Sardar; Chi, Qiaoqiao; Xu, Yaoyang

    2017-08-01

    Anthropogenic and natural activities can lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and discharge of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) into soil environment. Biochar amendment to soils is a cost-effective technology and sustainable approach used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, improve phytoremediation, and minimize the health risks associated with consumption of PTE-contaminated vegetables. Greenhouse pot experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of peanut shell biochar (PNB) and sewage sludge biochar (SSB) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, plant growth, PTE bioaccumulation, and arsenic (As) speciation in bean plants. Results indicated that amendments of PNB and SSB increased plant biomass production by increasing soil fertility and reducing bioavailability of PTEs. Addition of biochars also increased soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and ammonium-nitrogen (NH 4 -N) but decreased available concentrations of PTEs such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and As. The concentration of nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 - -N) was also decreased in biochar-amended soils. In addition, PNB and SSB amendments significantly (P carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions were significantly (P emissions first increased and then decreased amended with both biochars. Current findings demonstrate that SSB and PNB are two beneficial soil amendments simultaneous mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and PTE bioaccumulation as well as arsenic speciation in P. vulgaris L.

  12. Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2013-03-15

    The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

  13. Potential for energy recovery and greenhouse gas mitigation from municipal solid waste using a waste-to-material approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu

    2016-12-01

    Energy recovery and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wastes are getting noticed in recent years. This study evaluated the potential for energy recovery and GHG mitigation from municipal solid waste (MSW) with a waste-to-material (WTM) approach. Waste generated in Taiwan contains a large amount of paper, food waste, and plastics, which previously were mostly sent to waste-to-energy (WTE) plants for incineration. However, the mitigation of GHGs by the WTM approach has been especially successful in the recycling of metals (averaging 1.83×10 6 kgCO 2 -eq/year) and paper (averaging 7.38×10 5 kgCO 2 -eq/year). In addition, the recycling of paper (1.33×10 10 kWh) and plastics (1.26×10 10 kWh) has contributed greatly to energy saving. Both metal and glass are not suitable for incineration due to their low energy content. The volumes of paper and food waste contained in the MSW are positively related to the carbon concentration, which may contribute to increased GHGs during incineration. Therefore, the recycling of paper, metals, and food waste is beneficial for GHG mitigation. Measures to reduce GHGs were also suggested in this study. The development of the WTM approach may be helpful for the proper management of MSW with regards to GHG mitigation. The results of this study can be a successful example for other nations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Unintended possible consequences of fuel input taxes for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinz E. Klingelhöfer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Africa is planning to introduce a carbon tax as a Pigouvian measure for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, one of the tax bases designed as a fuel input tax. In this form, it is supposed to incentivise users to reduce and/or substitute fossil fuels, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions. Aim: This article examines how such a carbon tax regime may affect the individual willingness to invest in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies. Setting: Mathematical derivation, using methods of linear programming, duality theory and sensitivity analysis. Methods: By employing a two-step evaluation approach, it allows to identify the factors determining the maximum price an individual investor would pay for such an investment, given the conditions of imperfect markets. Results: This price ceiling depends on the (corrected net present values of the payments and on the interdependencies arising from changes in the optimal investment and production programmes. Although the well-established results of environmental economics usually can be confirmed for a single investment, increasing carbon taxes may entail sometimes contradictory and unexpected consequences for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions. Under certain circumstances, they may discourage such investments and, when still undertaken, even lead to higher emissions. However, these results can be interpreted in an economically comprehensible manner. Conclusion: Under the usually given conditions of imperfect markets, the impact of a carbon tax regime on individual investment decisions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not as straight forward as under the usually assumed, but unrealistically simplifying perfect market conditions. To avoid undesired and discouraging effects, policy makers cannot make solitary decisions, but have to take interdependencies on the addressee´s side into account. The individual investor

  15. Greenhouse gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land use change and fertilization scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castanheira, Érica Geraldes; Acevedo, Helmer; Freire, Fausto

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A comprehensive evaluation of alternative LUC and fertilization schemes. • The GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. • Colombian palm area expansion resulted in negative or low palm oil GHG intensity. • GHG emissions from plantation vary significantly with N 2 O emission parameters. - Abstract: The main goal of this article is to assess the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of palm oil produced in a specific plantation and mill in Colombia. A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of alternative land use change (LUC) scenarios (forest, shrubland, savanna and cropland conversion) and fertilization schemes (four synthetic and one organic nitrogen-fertilizer) was performed. A sensitivity analysis to field nitrous oxide emission calculation, biogas management options at mill, time horizon considered for global warming and multifunctionality approach were also performed. The results showed that the GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. Significant differences were observed between the LUC scenarios (−3.0 to 5.3 kg CO 2 eq kg −1 palm oil). The highest result is obtained if tropical rainforest is converted and the lowest if palm is planted on previous cropland, savanna and shrubland, in which almost all LUC from Colombian oil palm area expansion occurred between 1990 and 2009. Concerning plantation and oil extraction, it was shown that field nitrous oxide emissions and biogas management options have a high influence on GHG emissions

  16. Method and system for gas flow mitigation of molecular contamination of optics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, Gildardo; Johnson, Terry; Arienti, Marco; Harb, Salam; Klebanoff, Lennie; Garcia, Rudy; Tahmassebpur, Mohammed; Scott, Sarah

    2018-01-23

    A computer-implemented method for determining an optimized purge gas flow in a semi-conductor inspection metrology or lithography apparatus, comprising receiving a permissible contaminant mole fraction, a contaminant outgassing flow rate associated with a contaminant, a contaminant mass diffusivity, an outgassing surface length, a pressure, a temperature, a channel height, and a molecular weight of a purge gas, calculating a flow factor based on the permissible contaminant mole fraction, the contaminant outgassing flow rate, the channel height, and the outgassing surface length, comparing the flow factor to a predefined maximum flow factor value, calculating a minimum purge gas velocity and a purge gas mass flow rate from the flow factor, the contaminant mass diffusivity, the pressure, the temperature, and the molecular weight of the purge gas, and introducing the purge gas into the semi-conductor inspection metrology or lithography apparatus with the minimum purge gas velocity and the purge gas flow rate.

  17. Method for evaluating natural gas demand scenarios (Demangas Project); Metodologia para avaliacao de cenarios de demanda pelo gas natural (Projeto Demangas)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindau, Luis Antonio [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Sistemas de Transportes; Santos, Gilberto T. dos; Silva, Silvio C. da; Ribeiro, Jose Luis D.; Fogliatto, Flavio S. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Otimizacao de Produtos e Processos

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents the methodology developed for the evaluation of the existing and potential market for natural gas in the industrial, automotive, residential and commercial sectors of Rio Grande do Sul. The methodology is based upon a marketing research framework and consists of the definition of the problem; application of qualitative, quantitative and stated-preference enquiries; review of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice; and, also, interviews with specialists. The methodology is consolidated in four software that enable the simulation of different demand scenarios of natural gas up to the year 2010. The development of this methodology comprised the participation of more than 1,000 potential users of natural gas and allowed the state company in charge of distributing natural gas to: structure the problem of forecasting the consumption of natural gas within a new context of competition in the energy industry; help the formulation of the strategic plan of the company with regard to investment strategies and incrementing the number of clients; and propose marketing efforts to promote the adoption of natural gas as an alternative energy source. (author)

  18. Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kok, Robert; Annema, Jan Anne; Wee, Bert van

    2011-01-01

    A review is given of methodological practices for ex ante cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of transport greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures, e.g. fuel economy and CO 2 standards for road vehicles in the US and EU. Besides the fundamental differences between different types of policies and abatement options which inherently result in different CEA outcomes, differences in methodological choices and assumptions are another important source of variation in CEA outcomes. Fourteen methodological issues clustered into six groups are identified on which thirty-three selected studies are systematically reviewed. The potential variation between lower and upper cost-effectiveness estimates for GHG mitigation measures in transport, resulting from different methodological choices and assumptions, lies in the order of $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. The practise of using CEA for policy-making could improve considerably by clearly indicating the specific purpose of the CEA and its strengths and limitations for policy decisions. Another improvement is related to the dominant approach in transport GHG mitigation studies: the bottom-up financial technical approach which assesses isolated effects, implying considerable limitations for policy-making. A shift to welfare-economic approaches using a hybrid model has the potential to establish an improved assessment of transport GHG mitigation measures based on realistic market responses and behavioural change. - Highlights: ► We identify fourteen important methodological issues clustered into six groups. ► We systematically review thirty-three selected transport GHG mitigation studies. ► Methodological choices can lead to a difference by up to $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. ► The dominant bottom-up approach has limitations for policy-making. ► Welfare-economic approaches could improve cost-effectiveness analysis.

  19. Nuclear material safeguards for enrichments plants: Part 4, Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant: Diversion scenarios and IAEA safeguards activities: Safeguards training course

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-10-01

    This publication is Part 4 of a safeguards training course in Nuclear Material Safeguards for enrichment plants. This part of the course deals with diversion scenarios and safeguards activities at gas centrifuge enrichment plants.

  20. Strategies for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in Mediterranean agriculture: A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanz-Cobena, A.; Lassaletta, L.; Aguilera, E.; Prado, Del A.; Garnier, J.; Billen, G.; Iglesias, A.; Sánchez, B.; Guardia, G.; Abalos Rodriguez, Diego; Plaza-Bonilla, D.; Puigdueta-bartolomé, I.; Moral, R.; Galán, E.; Arriaga, H.; Merino, P.; Infante-Amate, J.; Meijide, A.; Pardo, G.; Álvaro-Fuentes, J.; Gilsanz, C.; Báez, D.; Doltra, J.; González-Ubierna, S.; Cayuela, M.L.; Menéndez, S.; Díaz-Pinés, E.; Le-Noë, J.; Quemada, M.; Estellés, F.; Calvet, S.; Grinsven, Van H.J.M.; Westhoek, H.; Sanz, M.J.; Gimeno, B.S.; Vallejo, A.; Smith, P.

    2017-01-01

    An integrated assessment of the potential of different management practices for mitigating specific components of the total GHG budget (N2O and CH4 emissions and C sequestration) of Mediterranean agrosystems was performed in this study. Their suitability regarding both yield and environmental (e.g.

  1. Greenhouse gas mitigation in animal production: towards an integrated life cycle sustainability assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, de I.J.M.; Cederberg, C.; Eady, S.; Gollnow, S.; Kristensen, T.; Macleod, M.; Meul, M.; Nemecek, T.; Phong, L.T.; Thoma, G.; Werf, H.M.G.; Williams, A.G.; Zonderland-Thomassen, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The animal food chain contributes significantly to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We explored studies that addressed options to mitigate GHG emissions in the animal production chain and concluded that most studies focused on production systems in developed countries and on a single GHG. They

  2. Scenario of Methane and Gas Hydrate occurrences in different geological settings in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karisiddaiah, S. M.

    2003-04-01

    An attempt is made here to unravel the various types of methane occurrences in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. First part devotes on the occurrence of methane in anoxic brines, in sea water and in the underlying sediments, while the next half concentrates on the significance of methane in the natural gas hydrates with in the sediments under special P-T conditions from mud volcanoes of Anaximander Mountain Ranges and Mediterranean Ridges as reported by various researchers. Very high methane concentrations (128-2692 mM) occur in the hypersaline anoxic brine pools of Bannock and Urania, within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, compared to its concentrations (17 to 80 m M) in the sediment cores below the anoxic brines. Besides, in the underlying sediments bit higher range in methane (10-158 nM) values occur, compared to low methane (1.47-7.14 nM) concentrations in the overlying water column and the basins surrounding Crete Island. The methane enrichment in the brines might be due to the long residence time of brine in the basin, and to its high stability toward mixing with overlying seawater. Possible sources for this methane enrichment could be a deep source of hydrothermal activities, prevalence of gas hydrate horizons and occurrence of sapropels. Gas hydrate research had reached an astounding position in the earth sciences. The present day situation of natural gases for the entire world caused an alarming strategy to search for new clean fuel energy, such as the one sequestered in the gas hydrates. In this context an attempt is made here to review the significance of gas hydrate occurrences in the eastern Mediterraneans mainly from Anaximander Mountain Range mud volcanoes (which are characterized by a concentric zonal distribution of gas hydrates) and mud volcanoes in Mediterranean Ridges which might be the future sites for gas hydrate exploration.

  3. Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David; Mei, Zhi-Gang; Yacout, Abdellatif M.

    2018-01-01

    Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety of LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.

  4. The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

    2004-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

  5. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  6. Greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential of changes in water management for two rice sites in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begum, Khadiza; Kuhnert, Matthias; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Smith, Pete; Ogle, Stephen; Parton, William; Kader, Abdul; Sleutel, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Bangladesh and rice production is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions. This study considers measurements from two test sites, situated in Mymensingh (Bangladesh), to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical model DailyDayCent and estimate the mitigation potential of alternative management practices at the sites. There are two different N application treatments on the two test sites, which are on the first site a control with no N application and a mineral fertilizer application (120 kg N ha-1) and on the second site only a mineral fertilizer application (110 kg N ha-1). For mitigation, the water management is modified in a modelling approach to estimate the mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions. The model shows partial agreement with the observations. The modifications to the water management, by changing from permanent wetting to alternate wetting, shows a decrease in GHG emissions of up to 46 % and 37 % for the two test sites, respectively. These tests enable an optimization of the management options to reduce the GHG emissions while maintaining yields.

  7. Climate change mitigation and electrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    An increasing number of mitigation scenarios with deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions have focused on expanded use of demand-side electric technologies, including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and heat pumps. Here we review such “electricity scenarios” to explore commonalities and differences. Newer scenarios are produced by various interests, ranging from environmental organizations to industry to an international organization, and represent a variety of carbon-free power generation technologies on the supply side. The reviewed studies reveal that the electrification rate, defined here as the ratio of electricity to final energy demand, rises in baseline scenarios, and that its increase is accelerated under climate policy. The prospect of electrification differs from sector to sector, and is the most robust for the buildings sector. The degree of transport electrification differs among studies because of different treatment and assumptions about technology. Industry does not show an appreciable change in the electrification rate. Relative to a baseline scenario, an increase in the electrification rate often implies an increase in electricity demand but does not guarantee it. - Highlights: ► Until recently few mitigation scenarios paid attention to electrification. ► Recent scenarios show an increasing focus on demand-side electric technologies. ► They are represented by various interests. ► Level of electrification increases with stringency of climate policy. ► Prospect of electrification differs across sectors.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions from willow-based electricity: a scenario analysis for Portugal and The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rebelo de Mira, R.; Kroeze, C.

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants using willow as fuel compared to those using fossil fuels. More specifically, we quantify emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils on which willow is grown, and compare these to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil

  9. The Impact of Region, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Grower Incentives on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Canola (Brassica napus) Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammac, W. A.; Pan, W.; Koenig, R. T.; McCracken, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated through the second renewable fuel standard (RFS2) that biodiesel meet a minimum threshold requirement (50% reduction) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction compared to fossil diesel. This designation is determined by life cycle assessment (LCA) and carries with it potential for monetary incentives for biodiesel feedstock growers (Biomass Crop Assistance Program) and biodiesel processors (Renewable Identification Numbers). A national LCA was carried out for canola (Brassica napus) biodiesel feedstock by the EPA and it did meet the minimum threshold requirement. However, EPA's national LCA does not provide insight into regional variation in GHG mitigation. The authors propose for full GHG reduction potential of biofuels to be realized, LCA results must have regional specificity and should inform incentives for growers and processors on a regional basis. The objectives of this work were to determine (1) variation in biofuel feedstock production related GHG emissions between three agroecological zones (AEZs) in eastern Washington State (2) the impact of nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) on GHG mitigation potential for each AEZ and (3) the impact of incentives on adoption of oilseed production. Results from objective (1) revealed there is wide variability in range for GHG estimates both across and within AEZs based on variation in farming practices and environment. It is expected that results for objective (2) will show further GHG mitigation potential due to minimizing N use and therefore fertilizer transport and soil related GHG emission while potentially increasing biodiesel production per hectare. Regional based incentives may allow more timely achievement of goals for bio-based fuels production. Additionally, incentives may further increase GHG offsetting by promoting nitrogen conserving best management practices implementation. This research highlights the need for regional assessment/incentive based

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Nuclear power for greenhouse gas mitigation under the Kyoto protocol: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.

    2000-01-01

    At the 43rd regular session of the IAEA General Conference, Member States requested the IAEA to help countries in assessing nuclear power's role in light of global environmental challenges and energy needs. Such assistance should include support for implementing national case studies, and facilitating access to relevant information about nuclear power's role in achieving sustainable development in developing countries and in mitigating GHG emissions. The dissemination of information on CDM is of particular importance to developing countries, so as to enable Member States interested in the mechanism to take an active and informed role in the debate regarding the Kyoto Protocol and eligible CDM technologies. Therefore, the Secretariat organized a series of information seminars, workshops and training courses for Member States on the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation and Emissions Trading with particular emphasis on the potential role of nuclear power for GHG mitigation. On request, the Secretariat also provided training and assistance to several Member States in the preparation of national case studies that explore the potential role of nuclear power as a CDM technology. These case studies will be presented by the respective national study teams during this side event at the 44th IAEA General Conference. Within the general criteria included in the Kyoto Protocol, the decision on which technologies are eligible for GHG mitigation under the flexibility mechanisms is a sovereign decision of each country

  12. Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

    2010-07-01

    For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, Longlong [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Ti, Chaopu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Li, Bolun [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Xia, Yongqiu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Xiaoyuan, E-mail: yanxy@issas.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2016-06-15

    Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO{sub 2-NEB} and Nr{sub -NEB}), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH{sub 4} emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH{sub 4} emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH{sub 3} volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404–701) Tg CO{sub 2} eq GHG and 10 (7.4–12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001–2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70–555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7 Tg CO{sub 2} eq yr{sup −1} and 2.2 Tg Nr-N yr{sup −1} could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize

  14. Levelized Costs for Nuclear, Gas and Coal for Electricity, under the Mexican Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios, J.C.; Alonso, G.; Ramirez, R.; Gomez, A.; Ortiz, J.; Longoria, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    In the case of new nuclear power stations, it is necessary to pay special attention to the financial strategy that will be applied, time of construction, investment cost, and the discount and return rate. The levelized cost quantifies the unitary cost of the electricity (the kWh) generated during the lifetime of the nuclear power plant; and allows the immediate comparison with the cost of other alternative technologies. The present paper shows levelized cost for different nuclear technologies and it provides comparison among them as well as with gas and coal electricity plants. For the calculations we applied our own methodology to evaluate the levelized cost considering investment, fuel and operation and maintenance costs, making assumptions for the Mexican market, and taking into account the gas prices projections. The study also shows comparisons using different discount rates (5% and 10%), and some comparisons between our results and an OECD 1998 study. The results are i n good agreement and shows that nuclear option is cost competitive in Mexico on the basis of levelized costs

  15. Levelized Costs for Nuclear, Gas and Coal for Electricity, under the Mexican Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palacios, J.C.; Alonso, G.; Ramirez, R.; Gomez, A.; Ortiz, J.; Longoria, L.C.

    2004-10-06

    In the case of new nuclear power stations, it is necessary to pay special attention to the financial strategy that will be applied, time of construction, investment cost, and the discount and return rate. The levelized cost quantifies the unitary cost of the electricity (the kWh) generated during the lifetime of the nuclear power plant; and allows the immediate comparison with the cost of other alternative technologies. The present paper shows levelized cost for different nuclear technologies and it provides comparison among them as well as with gas and coal electricity plants. For the calculations we applied our own methodology to evaluate the levelized cost considering investment, fuel and operation and maintenance costs, making assumptions for the Mexican market, and taking into account the gas prices projections. The study also shows comparisons using different discount rates (5% and 10%), and some comparisons between our results and an OECD 1998 study. The results are i n good agreement and shows that nuclear option is cost competitive in Mexico on the basis of levelized costs.

  16. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2010-01-01

    Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

  17. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2010-01-29

    Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

  18. Identification studies about take measures for mitigate of gas emissions greenhouse effect in energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-11-01

    In the Unit Nations Convention about Climatic change has get stability of greenhouse effects in atmosphere concentrations. In the framework to Uruguay Project URU/95/631 have been defined the need to identify, measures, practices, process and technologies for reduce some emissions furthermore in Energy sector. Emission impact, cost-benefit, direct or iundirect, national programs, factibility such as social, politics and Institutional agreements was considered in the present work. It was given emissions proyected for 15 years period 1999-2013 of the following atmospheric pollutants: carbon dioxide,carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and methane.Eight stages was applied the emission evaluation: natural gas; without natural gas; transport; industrial; Montevidean bus- car demand; natural gas uses in bus-taxi; nitrogen oxides control in thermic centrals; catalytic converters in gasoline cars

  19. Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emission Evaluation Scenarios of Mea Fah Luang University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laingoen Onn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Thailand, quantity of the educational institutes building shared one fourth of commercial building. Among the energy consumption and conservation in the building in Thailand are mostly study in typical office and resident building. Mea Fah Luang University (MFU was selected to represent the educational institutes building where located in the northern part of Thailand. The average temperature in the northern is lower than other parts of Thailand. This study was firstly collected the data about quantity and behaviour of energy consumption in MFU based on the energy audit handbook. Although MFU is located in the northern of Thailand. The highest energy consumption is in the part of air condition. When the energy efficiency appliances and energy conservation building are implemented, the cost of energy will be saved around 15,867,960 Baht. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emission is also reduced about 72.01 kg CO2, equivalent/m2/year.

  20. CO2-mitigation options for the offshore oil and gas sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process leading to the production of CO2and methane, discharged into the atmosphere, and of chemicals, rejected into the sea. The taxation of these emissions, in Norway, has encouraged the development of more energy...

  1. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

  2. Optimizing of operational strategies in producting gas fields mitigating induced seismic risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chitu, A.G.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Candela, T.G.G.; Osinga, S.; Kraaijpoel, D.A.; Wassing, B.B.T.

    2017-01-01

    Pore pressure changes caused by the production of gas from reservoir rocks result in reservoir compaction, stress changes on faults, potential fault reactivation and related seismic activity. This seismic activity is expected to be affected by the amount of pressure change, the spatial distribution

  3. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  4. Mitigation of chlorine gas lung injury in rats by postexposure administration of sodium nitrite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Amit K; Doran, Stephen F; Samal, Andrey A; Sharma, Ruchita; Vedagiri, Kokilavani; Postlethwait, Edward M; Squadrito, Giuseppe L; Fanucchi, Michelle V; Roberts, L Jackson; Patel, Rakesh P; Matalon, Sadis

    2011-03-01

    Nitrite (NO(2)(-)) has been shown to limit injury to the heart, liver, and kidneys in various models of ischemia-reperfusion injury. Potential protective effects of systemic NO(2)(-) in limiting lung injury or enhancing repair have not been documented. We assessed the efficacy and mechanisms by which postexposure intraperitoneal injections of NO(2)(-) mitigate chlorine (Cl(2))-induced lung injury in rats. Rats were exposed to Cl(2) (400 ppm) for 30 min and returned to room air. NO(2)(-) (1 mg/kg) or saline was administered intraperitoneally at 10 min and 2, 4, and 6 h after exposure. Rats were killed at 6 or 24 h. Injury to airway and alveolar epithelia was assessed by quantitative morphology, protein concentrations, number of cells in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), and wet-to-dry lung weight ratio. Lipid peroxidation was assessed by measurement of lung F(2)-isoprostanes. Rats developed severe, but transient, hypoxemia. A significant increase of protein concentration, neutrophil numbers, airway epithelia in the BAL, and lung wet-to-dry weight ratio was evident at 6 h after Cl(2) exposure. Quantitative morphology revealed extensive lung injury in the upper airways. Airway epithelial cells stained positive for terminal deoxynucleotidyl-mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL), but not caspase-3. Administration of NO(2)(-) resulted in lower BAL protein levels, significant reduction in the intensity of the TUNEL-positive cells, and normal lung wet-to-dry weight ratios. F(2)-isoprostane levels increased at 6 and 24 h after Cl(2) exposure in NO(2)(-)- and saline-injected rats. This is the first demonstration that systemic NO(2)(-) administration mitigates airway and epithelial injury.

  5. A guide to potential soil carbon sequestration; land-use management for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markewich, H.W.; Buell, G.R.

    2001-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon sequestration has a potential role in reducing the recent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) that is, in part, contributing to global warming. Because the most stable long-term surface reservoir for carbon is the soil, changes in agriculture and forestry can potentially reduce atmospheric CO2 through increased soil-carbon storage. If local governments and regional planning agencies are to effect changes in land-use management that could mitigate the impacts of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is essential to know how carbon is cycled and distributed on the landscape. Only then can a cost/benefit analysis be applied to carbon sequestration as a potential land-use management tool for mitigation of GHG emissions. For the past several years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been researching the role of terrestrial carbon in the global carbon cycle. Data from these investigations now allow the USGS to begin to (1) 'map' carbon at national, regional, and local scales; (2) calculate present carbon storage at land surface; and (3) identify those areas having the greatest potential to sequester carbon.

  6. CO2 abatement costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation by different biogas conversion pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehl, T; Müller, J

    2013-01-15

    Biogas will be of increasing importance in the future as a factor in reducing greenhouse gas emissions cost-efficiently by the optimal use of available resources and technologies. The goal of this study was to identify the most ecological and economical use of a given resource (organic waste from residential, commercial and industry sectors) using one specific treatment technology (anaerobic digestion) but applying different energy conversion technologies. Average and marginal abatement costs were calculated based on Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodologies. Eight new biogas systems producing electricity, heat, gas or automotive fuel were analyzed in order to identify the most cost-efficient way of reducing GHG emissions. A system using a combined heat and power station (which is connected to waste treatment and digestion operation facilities and located nearby potential residential, commercial or industrial heat users) was found to be the most cost-efficient biogas technology for reducing GHG emissions. Up to € 198 per tonne of CO(2) equivalents can be saved by replacing the "business as usual" systems based on fossil resources with ones based on biogas. Limited gas injection (desulfurized and dried biogas, without compression and upgrading) into the gas grid can also be a viable option with an abatement cost saving of € 72 per tonne of CO(2) equivalents, while a heating plant with a district heating grid or a system based on biogas results in higher abatement costs (€ 267 and € 270 per tonne CO(2) eq). Results from all systems are significantly influenced by whether average or marginal data are used as a reference. Beside that energy efficiency, the reference system that was replaced and the by-products as well as feedstock and investment costs were identified to be parameters with major impacts on abatement costs. The quantitative analysis was completed by a discussion of the role that abatement cost methodology can play in

  7. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  8. Nuclear power for sustainable development and Greenhouse gas mitigation - a perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, R.B.

    2001-01-01

    Each country has to address all issues relating to its sustainable, long-term development in a manner that is consistent with its socio-economic conditions, natural resources and technological capability. Energy is an essential input for development, but growth rate in energy use in any country depends on its current development level. The energy use in the developed countries is projected to grow slowly, while it is growing very fast in the developing countries. It has been the experience of all countries that development results in a shift from the use of non-commercial energy sources to commercial energy sources, particularly electricity. Thus the developing countries are experiencing a surge in electricity demand, both due to the growth in energy use and shift from non-commercial to commercial energy sources. This paper examines the scenario in India with regard to electricity generation growth rate and its sustainability with regard to resource position

  9. Scenarios of high greenhouse gas emission reduction in transports and buildings by 2050; Scenarios de forte reduction des emissions de gaz a effet de serre dans les transports et les batiments a l'horizon 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teissier, O.; Meunier, L. [Commissariat General au Developpement durable (CGDD/SEEIDD), 75 - Paris (France)

    2008-07-01

    The authors report simulations of different environmental policy measures concerning transports and buildings in France. First, they review measures which may entail a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and comment their emission reduction potential and their implementation costs. These measures are then ranked, and only those presenting a significant potential and an economically and technologically feasibility are finally considered. Their impact is then simulated by using different models which are adapted to the both sectors and to time ranges. The obtained results are compared to those obtained with a calibrated trend scenario and with a 'factor 4' scenario.

  10. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  11. Presence of a radioactive gas in archaeological excavations, determination and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcázar, M; Gómez, S; Peña, P; Zavala Arredondo, J; Gazzola, J; Villamares, A

    2014-01-01

    During recent archaeological discovery and excavation of a tunnel build approximately 2000 years ago by the Teotihuacans under the feathered serpent temple, in Mexico, abnormal radon concentrations up to 700 Bq m(-3) were measured at several excavation stages. The tunnel is at 15m below the earth surface with a vertical rectangular entrance of 4×4 m(2), a semi cylindrical shape of 3m in diameter, with a probable length of 100 m. This study supports the assumption that at the opening of the tunnel radon concentration was around 5500 Bq m(-3); however, although natural convection in the tunnel atmosphere naturally pups radon out, it build up to a maximum concentration of 2000 Bq m(-3). This paper presents the identification of the radon problem in this archaeological site, dose determination, and the mitigation actions that reduced the radon concentration down to 40 Bq m(-3) that ensure a negligible radon risk for archaeologist. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Understanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarze, Reimund; Niles, John O; Olander, Jacob

    2002-08-15

    A major concern about land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the potential for leakage. Leakage refers to a net increase of greenhouse-gas emissions in an area outside the project resulting from the CDM activity. This paper provides an overview of leakage, its definitions and its causes. It describes ways that LULUCF projects may suffer from leakage and attempts to assess the magnitude of leakage risks for different LULUCF project types. It also summarizes some of the approaches, both in terms of policies and project development, to address LULUCF leakage.

  13. A breakthrough in flue gas cleanup, CO2 mitigation and H2S removal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Wolf; Wasas, James; Stenger, Raymond; Howell, Evan

    2010-09-15

    SWAPSOL Corp. is developing commercial processes around a newly discovered reaction that reduces H2S below detectable levels while reacting with CO2 to form water, sulfur and carsuls, a carbon-sulfur polymer. The Stenger-Wasas Process (SWAP) stands to simplify sulfur removal technology as it consumes CO2 in an exothermic reaction. The SWAP has applications in landfill, sour, flue and Claus tail gas cleanup and may replace Claus technology. Destruction of waste hydrocarbons provides a source of H2S. The primary reactions and variants have been independently verified and the chemical kinetics determined by a third party laboratory.

  14. The North American Electric Grid as an Exchange Network: An Approach for Evaluating Energy Resource Composition and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodra, Evan; Sheldon, Seth; Dolen, Ryan; Zik, Ory

    2015-11-17

    Using a complex network framework, the North American electric grid is modeled as a dynamic, equilibrium-based supply chain of more than 100 interconnected power control areas (PCAs) in the contiguous United States, Canada, and Northern Mexico. Monthly generation and yearly inter-PCA exchange data reported by PCAs are used to estimate a directed network topology. Variables including electricity, as well as primary fuels, technologies, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with power generation can be traced through the network, providing energy source composition statistics for power consumers at a given location. Results show opportunities for more precise measurement by consumers of emissions occurring on their behalf at power plants. Specifically, we show a larger range of possible factors (∼0 to 1.3 kgCO2/kWh) as compared to the range provided by the EPA's eGRID analysis (∼0.4 to 1 kgCO2/kWh). We also show that 66-73% of the variance in PCA-level estimated emissions savings is the result of PCA-to-PCA differences that are not captured by the larger eGRID subregions. The increased precision could bolster development of effective greenhouse gas reporting and mitigation policies. This study also highlights the need for improvements in the consistency and spatiotemporal resolution of PCA-level generation and exchange data reporting.

  15. Quantifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Methane Emissions from Super-emitters in the Oil and Gas Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, David Richard

    Methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) supply chain reduce potential climate benefits of natural gas as a replacement for other fossil fuels that emit more carbon dioxide per energy produced. O&G facilities have skewed emission rate distributions with a small fraction of sites contributing the majority of emissions. Knowledge of the identity and cause of these high emission facilities, referred to as super-emitters or fat-tail sources, is critical for reducing supply chain emissions. This dissertation addresses the quantification of super-emitter emissions, assessment of their prevalence and relationship to site characteristics, and mitigation with continuous leak detection systems. Chapter 1 summarizes the state of the knowledge of O&G methane emissions. Chapter 2 constructs a spatially-resolved emission inventory to estimate total and O&G methane emissions in the Barnett Shale as part of a coordinated research campaign using multiple top-down and bottom-up methods to quantify emissions. The emission inventory accounts for super-emitters with two-phase Monte Carlo simulations that combine site measurements collected with two approaches: unbiased sampling and targeted sampling of super-emitters. More comprehensive activity data and the inclusion of super-emitters, which account for 19% of O&G emissions, produces a emission inventory that is not statistically different than top-down regional emission estimates. Chapter 3 describes a helicopter-based survey of over 8,000 well pads in seven basins with infrared optical gas imaging to assess high emission sources. Four percent of sites are observed to have high emissions with over 90% of observed sources from tanks. The occurrence of high emissions is weakly correlated to site parameters and the best statistical model explains only 14% of variance, which demonstrates that the occurrence of super-emitters is primarily stochastic. Chapter 4 presents a Gaussian dispersion model for optimizing the placement of

  16. Intelligent Bioreactor Management Information System (IBM-IS) for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul Imhoff; Ramin Yazdani; Don Augenstein; Harold Bentley; Pei Chiu

    2010-04-30

    Methane is an important contributor to global warming with a total climate forcing estimated to be close to 20% that of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the past two decades. The largest anthropogenic source of methane in the US is 'conventional' landfills, which account for over 30% of anthropogenic emissions. While controlling greenhouse gas emissions must necessarily focus on large CO2 sources, attention to reducing CH4 emissions from landfills can result in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at low cost. For example, the use of 'controlled' or bioreactor landfilling has been estimated to reduce annual US greenhouse emissions by about 15-30 million tons of CO2 carbon (equivalent) at costs between $3-13/ton carbon. In this project we developed or advanced new management approaches, landfill designs, and landfill operating procedures for bioreactor landfills. These advances are needed to address lingering concerns about bioreactor landfills (e.g., efficient collection of increased CH4 generation) in the waste management industry, concerns that hamper bioreactor implementation and the consequent reductions in CH4 emissions. Collectively, the advances described in this report should result in better control of bioreactor landfills and reductions in CH4 emissions. Several advances are important components of an Intelligent Bioreactor Management Information System (IBM-IS).

  17. Renewable energy development in China: Resource assessment, technology status, and greenhouse gas mitigation potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Y.; Renne, O.D. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Junfeng, Li [Energy Research Institute, Beijing (China)

    1996-12-31

    China, which has pursued aggressive policies to encourage economic development, could experience the world`s fastest growth in energy consumption over the next two decades. China has become the third largest energy user in the world since 1990 when primary energy consumption reached 960 million tons of coal equivalent (tce). Energy use is increasing at an annual rate of 6-7% despite severe infrastructure and capital constraints on energy sector development. Energy consumption in China is heavily dominated by coal, and fossil fuels provide up to 95% of all commercial energy use. Coal currently accounts for 77% of total primary energy use; oil, 16%; hydropower, 5%; and natural gas, 2%. Coal is expected to continue providing close to three-quarters of all energy consumed, and the amount of coal used is expected to triple by year 2020. Currently, renewable energy resources (except for hydropower) account for only a fraction of total energy consumption. However, the estimated growth in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as serious local and regional environmental pollution problems caused by combustion of fossil fuels, provides strong arguments for the development of renewable energy resources. Renewable energy potential in China is significantly greater than that indicated by the current level of use. With a clear policy goal and consistent efforts from the Government of China, renewables can play a far larger role in its future energy supply.

  18. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm...... components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.......The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed...

  19. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

    2013-06-01

    The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

  20. Methodological issues in developing a community forestry greenhouse gas emissions mitigation project in Mancherial forest division of Andhra Pradesh, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, I.K.; Hegde, G.T.; Sudha, P.; Ravindranath, N.H.

    2006-01-01

    There are several contentious issues related to forestry mitigation projects. The special report of the IPCC and literature published so far have shown that permanence, leakage, baseline establishment, measurement, monitoring, etc., could be addressed satisfactorily using existing scientific methods and accounting rules. To understand the methodological issues of developing community forestry projects, a case study was conducted in Mancherial forest division of Adilabad district in Andhra Pradesh, India. This paper addresses: the setting of project boundaries, baseline selection, establishment of additionality and the calculation of carbon sequestration as a result of the project, prior to project implementation. The steps involved in development of the project and the different methods used for establishing baseline, estimating leakage and transaction cost of developing a community forestry project are presented. The stock is projected to increase by 1480 x 10 3 t C during 2000-2012 over the baseline scenario under the modeling approach and the cost of establishing a baseline and project formulation for a project extending over 32,956 ha is estimated to be US$ 1.25 ha -1 and US$ 4 t C -1

  1. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions of the agriculture sector in France. Collection of territorial experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pommier, Fabien; Martin, Sarah; Bajeat, Philippe; Larbodiere, Ludovic; Vergez, Antonin

    2013-06-01

    After having briefly indicated the different origins of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions by the agriculture sector, presented the technical and political context, and outlined the need for new practices to struggle against climate change and to adapt to changes to come, this publication reports some experiments undertaken in different French regions: a farm network as an animation tool to support farmers, a local partnership to conciliate town and agriculture, the development of actions on energy and greenhouse gases in agriculture, the implementation of climate and agriculture plan, a network of agricultural actors for a sustainable support of change, an agriculture with and for its territory and inhabitants, a debate on agriculture and climate

  2. Feeding strategies and manure management for cost-effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farms in Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutreuil, M; Wattiaux, M; Hardie, C A; Cabrera, V E

    2014-09-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms are a major concern. Our objectives were to assess the effect of mitigation strategies on GHG emissions and net return to management on 3 distinct farm production systems of Wisconsin. A survey was conducted on 27 conventional farms, 30 grazing farms, and 69 organic farms. The data collected were used to characterize 3 feeding systems scaled to the average farm (85 cows and 127ha). The Integrated Farm System Model was used to simulate the economic and environmental impacts of altering feeding and manure management in those 3 farms. Results showed that incorporation of grazing practices for lactating cows in the conventional farm led to a 27.6% decrease in total GHG emissions [-0.16kg of CO2 equivalents (CO2eq)/kg of energy corrected milk (ECM)] and a 29.3% increase in net return to management (+$7,005/yr) when milk production was assumed constant. For the grazing and organic farms, decreasing the forage-to-concentrate ratio in the diet decreased GHG emissions when milk production was increased by 5 or 10%. The 5% increase in milk production was not sufficient to maintain the net return; however, the 10% increase in milk production increased net return in the organic farm but not on the grazing farm. A 13.7% decrease in GHG emissions (-0.08kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) was observed on the conventional farm when incorporating manure the day of application and adding a 12-mo covered storage unit. However, those same changes led to a 6.1% (+0.04kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) and a 6.9% (+0.06kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) increase in GHG emissions in the grazing and the organic farms, respectively. For the 3 farms, manure management changes led to a decrease in net return to management. Simulation results suggested that the same feeding and manure management mitigation strategies led to different outcomes depending on the farm system, and furthermore, effective mitigation strategies were used to reduce GHG emissions while maintaining

  3. Toward a protocol for quantifying the greenhouse gas balance and identifying mitigation options in smallholder farming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenstock, T. S.; Rufino, M. C.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Wollenberg, E.

    2013-06-01

    GHG budgets for developing economies. This dearth of information constrains the capacity to transition to low-carbon agricultural development, opportunities for smallholders to capitalize on carbon markets, and the negotiating position of developing countries in global climate policy discourse. Concerns over the poor state of information, in terms of data availability and representation, have fueled appeals for new approaches to quantifying GHG emissions and removals from smallholder agriculture, for both existing conditions and mitigation interventions (Berry and Ryan 2013, Olander et al 2013). Considering the dependence of quantification approaches on data and the current data deficit for smallholder systems, it is clear that in situ measurements must be a core part of initial and future strategies to improve GHG inventories and develop mitigation measures for smallholder agriculture. Once more data are available, especially for farming systems of high priority (e.g., those identified through global and regional rankings of emission hotspots or mitigation leverage points), better cumulative estimates and targeted actions will become possible. Greenhouse gas measurements in agriculture are expensive, time consuming, and error prone. These challenges are exacerbated by the heterogeneity of smallholder systems and landscapes and the diversity of methods used. Concerns over methodological rigor, measurement costs, and the diversity of approaches, coupled with the demand for robust information suggest it is germane for the scientific community to establish standards of measurements—'a protocol'—for quantifying GHG emissions from smallholder agriculture. A standard protocol for use by scientists and development organizations will help generate consistent, comparable, and reliable data on emissions baselines and allow rigorous comparisons of mitigation options. Besides enhancing data utility, a protocol serves as a benchmark for non-experts to easily assess data

  4. LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types were used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The Thorn...

  5. A Greenhouse-Gas Information System: Monitoring and Validating Emissions Reporting and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonietz, Karl K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dimotakis, Paul E. [JPL/CAL Tech; Rotman, Douglas A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Walker, Bruce C. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2011-09-26

    This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a system that meets specifications derived from imposed requirements; the need for rigorous calibration, verification, and validation (CV&V) standards, processes, and records for all measurement and modeling/data-inversion data; the need to develop and adopt an uncertainty-quantification (UQ) regimen for all measurement and modeling data; and the requirement that GHGIS products can be subjected to third-party questioning and scientific scrutiny. This report examines and assesses presently available capabilities that could contribute to a future GHGIS. These capabilities include sensors and measurement technologies; data analysis and data uncertainty quantification (UQ) practices and methods; and model-based data-inversion practices, methods, and their associated UQ. The report further examines the need for traceable calibration, verification, and validation processes and attached metadata; differences between present science-/research-oriented needs and those that would be required for an operational GHGIS; the development, operation, and maintenance of a GHGIS missions-operations center (GMOC); and the complex systems engineering and integration that would be required to develop, operate, and evolve a future GHGIS.

  6. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  7. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program

  8. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program.

  9. Mitigating the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in food through realistic consumer choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoolohan, C.; Berners-Lee, M.; McKinstry-West, J.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in 66 different food categories together with self-reported dietary information are used to show how consumer choices surrounding food might lead to reductions in food-related GHG emissions. The current UK-average diet is found to embody 8.8 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 . This figure includes both food eaten and food wasted (post-purchase). By far the largest potential reduction in GHG emissions is achieved by eliminating meat from the diet (35% reduction), followed by changing from carbon-intensive lamb and beef to less carbon-intensive pork and chicken (18% reduction). Cutting out all avoidable waste delivers an emissions saving of 12%. Not eating foods grown in hot-houses or air-freighted to the UK offers a 5% reduction in emissions. We show how combinations of consumer actions can easily lead to reductions of 25% in food related GHG emissions. If such changes were adopted by the entire UK population this would be equivalent to a 71% reduction in the exhaust pipe emissions of CO 2 from the entire UK passenger car fleet (which totalled 71 Mt CO 2 e year −1 in 2009). - Highlights: • UK-average diet embodies 8.8 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 (including avoidable waste). • Eliminating meat from the diet reduces food-related GHG emissions by 35%. • Changing from GHG-intensive meats to less intensive meats reduces emissions by 18%. • Cutting out all avoidable food waste reduces emissions by 12%. • Avoiding hot-housed food or food air-freighted to the UK reduces emissions by 5%

  10. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  11. Coal-packed methane biofilter for mitigation of green house gas emissions from coal mine ventilation air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limbri, Hendy; Gunawan, Cindy; Thomas, Torsten; Smith, Andrew; Scott, Jason; Rosche, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    Methane emitted by coal mine ventilation air (MVA) is a significant greenhouse gas. A mitigation strategy is the oxidation of methane to carbon dioxide, which is approximately twenty-one times less effective at global warming than methane on a mass-basis. The low non-combustible methane concentrations at high MVA flow rates call for a catalytic strategy of oxidation. A laboratory-scale coal-packed biofilter was designed and partially removed methane from humidified air at flow rates between 0.2 and 2.4 L min-1 at 30°C with nutrient solution added every three days. Methane oxidation was catalysed by a complex community of naturally-occurring microorganisms, with the most abundant member being identified by 16S rRNA gene sequence as belonging to the methanotrophic genus Methylocystis. Additional inoculation with a laboratory-grown culture of Methylosinus sporium, as investigated in a parallel run, only enhanced methane consumption during the initial 12 weeks. The greatest level of methane removal of 27.2±0.66 g methane m-3 empty bed h-1 was attained for the non-inoculated system, which was equivalent to removing 19.7±2.9% methane from an inlet concentration of 1% v/v at an inlet gas flow rate of 1.6 L min-1 (2.4 min empty bed residence time). These results show that low-cost coal packing holds promising potential as a suitable growth surface and contains methanotrophic microorganisms for the catalytic oxidative removal of methane.

  12. Coal-Packed Methane Biofilter for Mitigation of Green House Gas Emissions from Coal Mine Ventilation Air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limbri, Hendy; Gunawan, Cindy; Thomas, Torsten; Smith, Andrew; Scott, Jason; Rosche, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    Methane emitted by coal mine ventilation air (MVA) is a significant greenhouse gas. A mitigation strategy is the oxidation of methane to carbon dioxide, which is approximately twenty-one times less effective at global warming than methane on a mass-basis. The low non-combustible methane concentrations at high MVA flow rates call for a catalytic strategy of oxidation. A laboratory-scale coal-packed biofilter was designed and partially removed methane from humidified air at flow rates between 0.2 and 2.4 L min−1 at 30°C with nutrient solution added every three days. Methane oxidation was catalysed by a complex community of naturally-occurring microorganisms, with the most abundant member being identified by 16S rRNA gene sequence as belonging to the methanotrophic genus Methylocystis. Additional inoculation with a laboratory-grown culture of Methylosinus sporium, as investigated in a parallel run, only enhanced methane consumption during the initial 12 weeks. The greatest level of methane removal of 27.2±0.66 g methane m−3 empty bed h−1 was attained for the non-inoculated system, which was equivalent to removing 19.7±2.9% methane from an inlet concentration of 1% v/v at an inlet gas flow rate of 1.6 L min−1 (2.4 min empty bed residence time). These results show that low-cost coal packing holds promising potential as a suitable growth surface and contains methanotrophic microorganisms for the catalytic oxidative removal of methane. PMID:24743729

  13. Coal-packed methane biofilter for mitigation of green house gas emissions from coal mine ventilation air.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendy Limbri

    Full Text Available Methane emitted by coal mine ventilation air (MVA is a significant greenhouse gas. A mitigation strategy is the oxidation of methane to carbon dioxide, which is approximately twenty-one times less effective at global warming than methane on a mass-basis. The low non-combustible methane concentrations at high MVA flow rates call for a catalytic strategy of oxidation. A laboratory-scale coal-packed biofilter was designed and partially removed methane from humidified air at flow rates between 0.2 and 2.4 L min-1 at 30°C with nutrient solution added every three days. Methane oxidation was catalysed by a complex community of naturally-occurring microorganisms, with the most abundant member being identified by 16S rRNA gene sequence as belonging to the methanotrophic genus Methylocystis. Additional inoculation with a laboratory-grown culture of Methylosinus sporium, as investigated in a parallel run, only enhanced methane consumption during the initial 12 weeks. The greatest level of methane removal of 27.2±0.66 g methane m-3 empty bed h-1 was attained for the non-inoculated system, which was equivalent to removing 19.7±2.9% methane from an inlet concentration of 1% v/v at an inlet gas flow rate of 1.6 L min-1 (2.4 min empty bed residence time. These results show that low-cost coal packing holds promising potential as a suitable growth surface and contains methanotrophic microorganisms for the catalytic oxidative removal of methane.

  14. Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Jon; Colombo, Steve; Chen, Jiaxin; Mabee, Warren; MacLean, Heather L

    2011-01-15

    The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  16. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  17. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  18. Short-term effects of CO2 leakage on the soil bacterial community in a simulated gas leakage scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Ma

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The technology of carbon dioxide (CO2 capture and storage (CCS has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic emissions with unique advantages. However, the potential risk of gas leakage from CO2 sequestration and utilization processes has attracted considerable attention. Moreover, leakage might threaten soil ecosystems and thus cannot be ignored. In this study, a simulation experiment of leakage from CO2 geological storage was designed to investigate the short-term effects of different CO2 leakage concentration (from 400 g m−2 day−1 to 2,000 g m−2 day−1 on soil bacterial communities. A shunt device and adjustable flow meter were used to control the amount of CO2 injected into the soil. Comparisons were made between soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community diversity before and after injecting different CO2 concentrations. Increasing CO2 concentration decreased the soil pH, and the largest variation ranged from 8.15 to 7.29 (p < 0.05. Nitrate nitrogen content varied from 1.01 to 4.03 mg/Kg, while Olsen-phosphorus and total phosphorus demonstrated less regular downtrends. The fluorescein diacetate (FDA hydrolytic enzyme activity was inhibited by the increasing CO2 flux, with the average content varying from 22.69 to 11.25 mg/(Kg h (p < 0.05. However, the increasing activity amplitude of the polyphenol oxidase enzyme approached 230%, while the urease activity presented a similar rising trend. Alpha diversity results showed that the Shannon index decreased from 7.66 ± 0.13 to 5.23 ± 0.35 as the soil CO2 concentration increased. The dominant phylum in the soil samples was Proteobacteria, whose proportion rose rapidly from 28.85% to 67.93%. In addition, the proportion of Acidobacteria decreased from 19.64% to 9.29% (p < 0.01. Moreover, the abundances of genera Methylophilus, Methylobacillus, and Methylovorus increased, while GP4, GP6 and GP7 decreased. Canonical correlation analysis

  19. Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark: 1. System design and gas distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassini, Filippo; Scheutz, Charlotte; Skov, Bent H; Mou, Zishen; Kjeldsen, Peter

    2017-05-01

    Greenhouse gas mitigation at landfills by methane oxidation in engineered biocover systems is believed to be a cost effective technology, but so far a full quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the technology in full scale has only been carried out in a few cases. A third generation semi-passive biocover system was constructed at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark. The biocover system was fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate collection wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the commonly observed surface emission hot spot areas resulting from an uneven gas distribution to the active methane oxidation layer, leading to areas with methane overloading. Performed screening of methane and carbon dioxide surface concentrations, as well as flux measurement using a flux chamber at the surface of the biocover, showed homogenous distributions indicating an even gas distribution. This was supported by results from a tracer gas test where the compound HFC-134a was added to the gas inlet over an adequately long time period to obtain tracer gas stationarity in the whole biocover system. Studies of the tracer gas movement within the biocover system showed a very even gas distribution in gas probes installed in the gas distribution layer. Also the flux of tracer gas out of the biocover surface, as measured by flux chamber technique, showed a spatially even distribution. Installed probes logging the temperature and moisture content of the methane oxidation layer at different depths showed elevated temperatures in the layer with temperature differences to the ambient temperature in the range of 25-50°C at the deepest measuring point due to the microbial processes occurring in the layer. The moisture measurements showed that infiltrating precipitation was efficiently drained away from the methane oxidation layer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Densified biomass can cost-effectively mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and address energy security in thermal applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Thomas O; McNeal, Frederick M; Spatari, Sabrina; G Abler, David; Adler, Paul R

    2012-01-17

    Regional supplies of biomass are currently being evaluated as feedstocks in energy applications to meet renewable portfolio (RPS) and low carbon fuel standards. We investigate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated abatement costs resulting from using densified switchgrass for thermal and electrical energy. In contrast to the large and positive abatement costs for using biomass in electricity generation ($149/Mg CO(2)e) due to the low cost of coal and high feedstock and power plant operation costs, abatement costs for replacing fuel oil with biomass in thermal applications are large and negative (-$52 to -$92/Mg CO(2)e), resulting in cost savings. Replacing fuel oil with biomass in thermal applications results in least cost reductions compared to replacing coal in electricity generation, an alternative that has gained attention due to RPS legislation and the centralized production model most often considered in U.S. policy. Our estimates indicate a more than doubling of liquid fuel displacement when switchgrass is substituted for fuel oil as opposed to gasoline, suggesting that, in certain U.S. locations, such as the northeast, densified biomass would help to significantly decarbonize energy supply with regionally sourced feedstock, while also reducing imported oil. On the basis of supply projections from the recently released Billion Ton Report, there will be enough sustainably harvested biomass available in the northeast by 2022 to offset the entirety of heating oil demand in the same region. This will save NE consumers between $2.3 and $3.9 billion annually. Diverting the same resource to electricity generation would cost the region $7.7 billion per year. While there is great need for finding low carbon substitutes for coal power and liquid transportation fuels in the U.S., we argue that in certain regions it makes cost- (and GHG mitigation-) effective sense to phase out liquid heating fuels with locally produced biomass first.

  1. Safety assessment for proposed pump mixing operations to mitigate episodic gas releases in tank 241-101-SY: Hanford Site, Richland, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lentsch, J.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-05-16

    This safety assessment addresses each of the elements required for the proposed action to remove a slurry distributor and to install, operate, and remove a mixing pump in Tank 241-SY-101, which is located within the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington. The proposed action is required as part of an ongoing evaluation of various mitigation concepts developed to eliminate episodic gas releases that result in hydrogen concentrations in the tank dome space that exceed the lower flammability limit.

  2. A safety assessment for proposed pump mixing operations to mitigate episodic gas releases in tank 241-SY-101: Hanford Site,Richland, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lentsch, J.W.

    1996-07-01

    This safety assessment addresses each of the elements required for the proposed action to remove a slurry distributor and to install, operate, and remove a mixing pump in Tank 241-SY-101,which is located within the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington.The proposed action is required as part of an ongoing evaluation of various mitigation concepts developed to eliminate episodic gas releases that result in hydrogen concentrations in the tank dome space that exceed the lower flammability limit.

  3. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  4. Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.; Beusen, A.; Heuberger, P.S.C.

    2008-01-01

    The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range

  5. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

    2014-01-01

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  6. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of a second generation energy production system from short rotation poplar in Eastern Germany and its accompanied uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Anja; Meyer-Aurich, Andreas; Prochnow, Annette

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the variance of the overall greenhouse gas mitigation potential of a complete second generation stationary bio-electricity production system, generated by poplar wood chips (Populus spec.) in Germany, using Monte Carlo simulations. We computed the GHG emissions as E B = (−0.034 ± 0.021) kg CO 2e MJ −1 (mean ± SD) and the mitigation factor as MF B = (0.274 ± 0.021) kg CO 2e MJ −1 following a life cycle assessment-based approach. Additionally, avoided nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions due to land use change were considered in the assessment. The most important factor for the overall mitigation variability was the uncertainty of the organic carbon changes in the soil, followed by the variability of yields. The uncertainty of (i) direct N 2 O emissions from the poplar site or (ii) the reference rye site as well as (iii) the uncertainty of heat recovery percentage was of minor importance. Uncertainties in the global warming potentials of nitrous oxide and methane and in the transport distance were found to be irrelevant. The uncertainty of the GHG mitigation which was associated with this specific electricity generation by poplar wood chips gasification was significantly lower compared to the variability of another common bio-electricity system (biogas). Uncertainty implications seem to be system-specific and therefore should be analysed separately for each bioenergy pathway under consideration. -- Highlights: •0.274 ± 0.021 kg CO 2e mitigation MJ −1 from poplar wood chips gasification. •Variability of soil organic carbon was most important for the mitigation uncertainty. •Overall variability was lower compared to the variability of bio-electricity from biogas. •Bioenergy systems should be analysed separately regarding their uncertainty aspects

  7. Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-03

    For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5

  8. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  9. Small-scale electricity generating facilities from natural gas : a measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect; Microgeneracion de energia con gas natural: una medida efectiva para mitigar el cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez, A. M.

    2002-07-01

    The forthcoming liberalization of the gas and electricity markets in Europe, in conjunction with the increase of the global energy consumption in the near future are enabling the development of natural gas alternatives to traditional large-scale centralized power plants. They emerged from research suggesting that the use of small-scale electricity generating facilities dispersed throughout the electrical network, provides the electricity system with measurable technical, economic and environmental benefits. In this sense, the distributed generation powered by cogeneration systems offers the biggest measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect due to the carbon dioxide. (Author)

  10. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  11. Pros and cons of an expansion of the natural gas system in the Nordic Countries - sensitivity analysis of the scenario results from stage one of the Nordleden project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The report shows that the maximum economic profit from a transnordic gas grid amounts to 5-30 billion SEK (0.5-3 billion USD), depending on scenarios. This holds even under relatively strict CO 2 limitations. The profit is in the same range as the profits from emissions trading or from free trade in electricity in the Nordic market. In absolute numbers, the profit increases with increased energy demand. The natural gas supply could amount to about 300 TWh in year 2030, if the price at the border does not surpass 70 SEK/MWh (7 USD/MWh). The main expansion would be in central power and heat production. However, the report also shows that the transnordic gas grid could become a burden for the Nordic energy system, as the profit could be negative in the case where the investment is done according to the design case, but the gas price gets higher. The worst case could result in a loss of about 30 billion SEK. However, it is probably more realistic to assume that the market actors try to minimize their own risks through long term contracts with fixed prices and volumes, leading to a transfer of the risk to the society as a whole, being forced to renounce cheaper solutions for reaching the environmental goals in the case where natural gas becomes a more expensive fuel than supposed in the planning stage. The corresponding risk is much lower from a CO 2 point of view, i.e. if future CO 2 reduction limit become more strict than in the planning stage, the value of the gas grid is only marginally affected. Sensitivity analysis where the Nordic cooperation is widened to include trade in electricity (which already is a fact) and emission rights show that the optimum natural gas supply is affected, but to a small degree only. The net effect is a certain redistribution of the natural gas use between the countries

  12. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  13. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  14. Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from animal production systems: synergy between measuring and modelling at different scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenigen, van J.W.; Schils, R.L.M.; Velthof, G.L.; Kuikman, P.J.; Oudendag, D.A.; Oenema, O.

    2008-01-01

    Animal production systems are large and complex sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Emissions from these systems are expected to rise over the coming decades due to the increasing global population and shifting diets, unless appropriate mitigation

  15. Screening method to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of old landfills, based on downwind methane concentration measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredenslund, Anders Michael; Mønster, J.; Kjeldsen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    A nationwide effort is taking place in Denmark to mitigate methane emissions from landfills, by using biocovers. A large number of older landfills were found to be potential candidates for biocover implementation, but very little information was available for these sites to help evaluate if signi...

  16. Water use competition scenarios during the upcoming development of shale gas reserves across the Mexican Eagle Ford play Image already added

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arciniega, S.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.; Hernaández Espriú, A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mexico has significant shale oil and gas resources mainly contained within the Mexican part of the Eagle Ford play (Mex-EF), in the Burgos Basin located in northern Mexico. Over the last years, concerns about the water use associated to shale gas development using hydraulic fracturing (HF) have been increasing in the United States and Canada. In Mexico, the recent approval of a new energy bill allows the exploration, development and production of shale gas reserves. However, several of the Mexican shale gas resources are located in water-limited environments, such as the Mex-EF. The lack of climate and hydrological gauging stations across this region constrains information about how much freshwater from surface and groundwater sources is available and whether its interannual water availability is sufficient to satisfy the water demand by other users (agricultural, urban) of the region This work projects the water availability across the Mex-EF and its water use derived from the expansion of unconventional gas developments over the next 15 years. Water availability is estimated using a water balance approach, where the irrigation's groundwater withdrawals time series were reconstructed using remote sensing products (vegetation index and hydrological outputs from LSMs) and validated with in situ observed water use at three different irrigation districts of the region. Water use for HF is inferred using type curves of gas production, flowback and produced (FP) water and curves of drilled wells per year from the US experience, mainly from the Texas-EF play. Scenarios that combine freshwater use and FP water use for HF are developed and the spatial distribution of HF well pads is projected using random samples with a range of wells' horizontal length. This proposed methodology can be applied in other shale formations of the world under water stress and it also helps to determine whether water scarcity can be a limiting factor for the shale gas industry over the next

  17. Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fellmann, T.; Witzke, P.; Weiss, F.; Doorslaer, van B.; Drabik, D.; Huck, I.; Salputra, G.; Jansson, T.; Leip, A.

    2018-01-01

    Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in

  18. Economic and environmental perspective by 2030 and economic assessments of different scenarios of reduction of greenhouse gas in Europe - Seureco-Erasme working document Nr. 1/11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boitier, Baptiste; Fougeyrollas, Arnaud; Le Mouel, Pierre; Lemiale, Lionel; Pratlong, Florent; Zagame, Paul; Auverlot, Dominique; Beeker, Etienne; Buba, Johanne

    2011-11-01

    The authors report a study which aimed at precisely assessing for France and Europe the economic consequences on growth and employment of the implementation of the European Climate Plan which must be implemented in 2013, and at providing elements of reflection for the Committee '2020-2050 Trajectories' for the study of the cost-efficiency trajectories of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in compliance with the 'factor 5' objective by 2050. After a presentation of the European econometric model (NEMESIS), this report describes the elaborated reference scenario. The obtained results for Europe and France show that the 2008 crisis has largely invalidated the initial objectives of the European climate Plan, that the objectives (EU-ETS excluded) are achieved spontaneously in many countries, and that the -30 pc objective only implies a 7.5 pc reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020

  19. Challenges and opportunities for improving eco-efficiency of tropical forage-based systems to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Peters

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Forage-based livestock production plays a key role in national and regional economies, for food security and poverty alleviation, but is considered a major contributor to agricultural GHG emissions. While demand for livestock products is predicted to increase, there is political and societal pressure both to reduce environmental impacts and to convert some of the pasture area to alternative uses, such as crop production and environmental conservation. Thus, it is essential to develop approaches for sustainable intensification of livestock systems to mitigate GHG emissions, addressing biophysical, socio-economic and policy challenges. This paper highlights the potential of improved tropical forages, linked with policy incentives, to enhance livestock production, while reducing its environmental footprint. Emphasis is on crop-livestock systems. We give examples for sustainable intensification to mitigate GHG emissions, based on improved forages in Brazil and Colombia, and suggest future perspectives.

  20. Development and implementation of a screening method to categorise the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of 91 landfills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredenslund, Anders Michael; Mønster, Jacob; Kjeldsen, Peter

    2018-01-01

    to methane emission mitigation through the construction of biocovers. The method was based on downwind methane concentration measurements, using a van-mounted cavity ring-down spectrometer combined with inverse dispersion modelling to estimate whole-site methane emission rates. This method was found...... to variations in input parameters. Of the 91 landfills in the survey, 25 were found to be relevant for biocover construction when the methane emission threshold was set at 2 kg CH4 h−1....

  1. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makundi, Willy R.L.

    1998-01-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs

  2. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makundi, Willy R.L. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (United States)

    1998-10-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs.

  3. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-06-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries .

  4. Microalgae for third generation biofuel production, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and wastewater treatment: Present and future perspectives – A mini review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maity, Jyoti Prakash; Bundschuh, Jochen; Chen, Chien-Yen; Bhattacharya, Prosun

    2014-01-01

    The extensive use of fossil fuels is increasingly recognized as unsustainable as a consequence of depletion of supplies and the contribution of these fuels to climate change by GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions into the atmosphere. Microalgae indicate alternative renewable sustainable energy sources as they have a high potential for producing large amounts of biomass which in turn can be used for production of different third-generation biofuels at large scale. Microalgae transform the solar energy into the carbon storage products, leads to lipid accumulation, including TAG (triacylglycerols), which then can be transformed into biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethanol. This paper reviews the selection, production and accumulation of target bioenergy carrier's strains and their advantages as well as the technological development for oil, biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biogas production and GHG mitigation. The feedstock of promising algal strain exhibits the suitable biofuel production. The current progress of hybrid-technologies (biomass production, wastewater treatment, GHG mitigation) for production of prime-products as biofuels offer atmospheric pollution control such as the reduction of GHG (CO 2 fixation) coupling wastewater treatment with microalgae growth. The selection of efficient strain, microbial metabolism, cultivation systems, biomass production are key parameters of viable technology for microalgae-based biodiesel-production. - Highlights: • Microalgae are promising feedstock for biofuel production within lower farming area. • Production rate (L/ha) of oil from microalgae is much higher than other feedstock. • Lipid of Chlorella emersonii, Botryococcus braunii, Dunaliella tertiolecta, are high (>60% of dw biomass). • Remove pollutant from wastewater during feedstock production by selective strains. • Ecofriendly route to mitigate GHG (greenhouse gas) and water pollution during microalgae production

  5. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  6. International Experiences with Quantifying the Co-Benefits of Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Programs and Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, Grace [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Improving the efficiency of energy production and consumption and switching to lower carbon energy sources can significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and reduce climate change impacts. A growing body of research has found that these measures can also directly mitigate many non-climate change related human health hazards and environmental damage. Positive impacts of policies and programs that occur in addition to the intended primary policy goal are called co-benefits. Policy analysis relies on forecasting and comparing the costs of policy and program implementation and the benefits that accrue to society from implementation. GHG reduction and energy efficiency policies and programs face political resistance in part because of the difficulty of quantifying their benefits. On the one hand, climate change mitigation policy benefits are often global, long-term, and subject to large uncertainties, and subsidized energy pricing can reduce the direct monetary benefits of energy efficiency policies to below their cost. On the other hand, the co-benefits that accrue from these efforts’ resultant reductions in conventional air pollution (such as improved health, agricultural productivity, reduced damage to infrastructure, and local ecosystem improvements) are generally near term, local, and more certain than climate change mitigation benefits and larger than the monetary value of energy savings. The incorporation of co-benefits into energy efficiency and climate mitigation policy and program analysis therefore might significantly increase the uptake of these policies. Faster policy uptake is especially important in developing countries because ongoing development efforts that do not consider co-benefits may lock in suboptimal technologies and infrastructure and result in high costs in future years. Over the past two decades, studies have repeatedly documented that non-climate change related benefits of energy efficiency and fuel conversion efforts, as a part

  7. The scenario for the implementation of the thermoelectricity generation using natural gas in Brazil; O cenario de insercao da geracao termeletrica a partir do gas natural no Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, Gilberto [Universidade Metodista de Piracicaba (UNIMEP), SP (Brazil)]. E-mail: gmartins@unimep.br

    2001-06-01

    We have observed recently the announcement of a series of new thermoelectric power plant projects using natural gas in many states in Brazil, and, particularly in Sao Paulo state where in areas considered critical in environmental terms as the Piracicaba river basin. The motivation and context for the creation of the Thermoelectricity Priority Program, a federal program launched to enhance the thermoelectric generation using natural gas in the whole country is analyzed. Besides the reasons for the creation of this program, some of the consequences and alternatives are also discussed. (author)

  8. Incentives for methane mitigation and energy-efficiency improvements in the case of Ukraine's natural gas transmission system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshchanka, Volha; Evans, Meredydd

    2014-06-01

    Reducing methane losses is a concern for climate change policy and energy policy. The energy sector is the major source of anthropogenic methane emissions into the atmosphere in Ukraine. Reducing methane emissions and avoiding combustion can be very cost-effective, but various barriers prevent such energy-efficiency measures from taking place. To date, few examples of industry-wide improvements exist. One example of substantial investments into upgrading natural gas transmission system comes from Ukraine's natural gas transmission company, Ukrtransgaz. The company's investments into system upgrades, along with a 34% fall in throughput, resulted in reduction of Ukrtransgaz system's own consumption of natural gas by 68% in 2011 compared to the level in 2005. Evaluating reductions in methane emissions is challenging because of lack of accurate data and gaps in accounting methodologies. At the same time, Ukraine's transmission system has undergone improvements that, at the very least, have contained methane emissions, if not substantially reduced them. In this paper, we describe recent developments in Ukraine's natural gas transmission system and analyze the incentives that forced the sector to pay close attention to its methane losses. Ukraine is one of the most energy-intensive countries, among the largest natural gas consumers in the world, and a significant emitter of methane. The country is also dependent on imports of natural gas. A combination of several factors has created conditions for successful reductions in methane emissions and combustion. These factors include: an eightfold increase in the price of imported natural gas; comprehensive domestic environmental and energy policies, such as the Laws of Ukraine on Protecting the Natural Environment and on Air Protection; policies aimed at integration with European Union's energy market and accession to the Energy Community Treaty; and the country's participation in international cooperation on environment, such

  9. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  10. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  11. Adaption of the LUCI framework to account for detailed farm management: a case study exploring potential for achieving locally and nationally significant greenhouse gas, flooding and nutrient mitigation without compromising livelihoods on New Zealand farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Bethanna; Trodahl, Martha; Maxwell, Deborah; Easton, Stuart

    2016-04-01

    This talk discusses recent progress in adapting the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) framework to take account of the impact of detailed farm management on greenhouse gas emissions and on water, sediment and nutrient delivery to waterways. LUCI is a land management decision support framework which examines the impact of current and potential interventions on a variety of outcomes, including flood mitigation, water supply, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, erosion, sediment and nutrient delivery to waterways, and agricultural production. The potential of the landscape to provide benefits is a function of both the biophysical properties of individual landscape elements and their configuration. Both are respected in LUCI where possible. For example, the hydrology, sediment and chemical routing algorithms are based on physical principles of hillslope flow, taking information on the storage and permeability capacity of elements within the landscape from soil and land use data and honoring physical thresholds, mass and energy balance constraints. LUCI discretizes hydrological response units within the landscape according to similarity of their hydraulic properties and preserves spatially explicit topographical routing. Implications of keeping the "status quo" or potential scenarios of land management change can then be evaluated under different meteorological or climatic events (e.g. flood return periods, rainfall events, droughts), cascading water through the hydrological response units using a "fill and spill" approach. These and other component algorithms are designed to be fast-running while maintaining physical consistency and fine spatial detail. This allows it to operate from subfield level scale to catchment, or even national scale, simultaneously. It analyses and communicates the spatial pattern of individual provision and tradeoffs/synergies between desired outcomes at detailed resolutions and provides suggestions on where management

  12. Rice straw as a renewable energy source in India, Thailand, and the Philippines: Overall potential and limitations for energy contribution and greenhouse gas mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadde, Butchaiah [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, 126 Prachauthit Road, Bangmod, Tungkru, Bangkok 10140 (Thailand); Menke, Christoph [University of Applied Sciences Trier, Department of Building Engineering Services, Energy Technology, Schneidershof, D-54293 Trier (Germany); Wassmann, Reiner [Rice and Climate Change Consortium, International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila (Philippines)

    2009-11-15

    Rice is a widely grown crop in the South and South-East Asia that leaves substantial quantity of straw in the field. The aim of this paper is to assess the quantity of rice straw produced, estimate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions based on its current uses, and assess its possible energy potential and related GHG emissions mitigation potential. Updated statistics on rough rice production are used in this study in combination with the literature values on Straw-to-Grain Ratio (SGR) to quantify the amount of rice straw produced in the three countries of focus. It is estimated that 97.19, 21.86, and 10.68 Mt of rice straw residue are produced in India, Thailand, and the Philippines, respectively. In India, 23% of rice straw residue produced is surplus and is either left in the field as uncollected or to a large extent open-field burnt. About 48% of this residue produced is subjected to open-field burning in Thailand, and in the Philippines it is 95%. The GHG emissions contribution through open-field burning of rice straw in India, Thailand, and the Philippines are 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.56%, and the mitigated GHG emissions when generated electricity is used would be 0.75%, 1.81%, and 4.31%, respectively, when compared to the total country GHG emissions. (author)

  13. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation from a pig farm with digester; Potencial de reducao de emissao de equivalente de carbono de uma unidade suinicola com biodigestor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angonese, Andre R. [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE), Toledo, PR (Brazil). Centro de Ciencias Agrarias. Grupo de Pesquisas em Ambiencia do Oeste do Parana]. E-mail: aangonese@yahoo.com.br; Campos, Alessandro T. [Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Diamantina, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Agronomia; Welter, Rosilene A. [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE), Toledo, PR (Brazil)

    2007-09-15

    Greenhouse gas emissions (tCO{sub 2} eq year{sup -1}) and the money earned annually with the total amount of pigs and the average per pig were evaluate. The pig farm has about 600 animals. The waste treatment system is integrated making possible the nutrients recycling. The tubular anaerobic digester degrade organic matter producing methane and fertilizer. The estimation made was based on the methodology AM0006 approved by Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board. The mitigation potential calculated was 325.16 tCO{sup 2} eq year{sup -1}, or 0.54 tCO{sup 2} eq year{sup -1}. The financial income was approximately R$ 5.31 animal{sup -1} year{sup -1}. (author)

  14. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  15. Hot gas in the cold dark matter scenario: X-ray clusters from a high-resolution numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hyesung; Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Ryu, Dongsu

    1994-01-01

    A new, three-dimensional, shock-capturing hydrodynamic code is utilized to determine the distribution of hot gas in a standard cold dark matter (CDM) model of the universe. Periodic boundary conditions are assumed: a box with size 85 h(exp -1) Mpc having cell size 0.31 h(exp -1) Mpc is followed in a simulation with 270(exp 3) = 10(exp 7.3) cells. Adopting standard parameters determined from COBE and light-element nucleosynthesis, sigma(sub 8) = 1.05, omega(sub b) = 0.06, and assuming h = 0.5, we find the X-ray-emitting clusters and compute the luminosity function at several wavelengths, the temperature distribution, and estimated sizes, as well as the evolution of these quantities with redshift. We find that most of the total X-ray emissivity in our box originates in a relatively small number of identifiable clusters which occupy approximately 10(exp -3) of the box volume. This standard CDM model, normalized to COBE, produces approximately 5 times too much emission from clusters having L(sub x) is greater than 10(exp 43) ergs/s, a not-unexpected result. If all other parameters were unchanged, we would expect adequate agreement for sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. This provides a new and independent argument for lower small-scale power than standard CDM at the 8 h(exp -1) Mpc scale. The background radiation field at 1 keV due to clusters in this model is approximately one-third of the observed background, which, after correction for numerical effects, again indicates approximately 5 times too much emission and the appropriateness of sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. If we have used the observed ratio of gas to total mass in clusters, rather than basing the mean density on light-element nucleosynthesis, then the computed luminosity of each cluster would have increased still further, by a factor of approximately 10. The number density of clusters increases to z approximately 1, but the luminosity per typical cluster decreases, with the result that evolution in the number density of bright

  16. Life-Cycle Analysis of Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Water Consumption in the 2016 MYPP Algal Biofuel Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward; Pegallapati, Ambica; Davis, Ryan; Markham, Jennifer; Coleman, Andre; Jones, Sue; Wigmosta, Mark; Zhu, Yunhua

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients.

  17. Thermo-Economic Modelling and Process Integration of CO2-Mitigation Options on Oil and Gas Platforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process associated with large CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere and chemicals to the sea. The taxation of these emissions has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three...... recovering CO2 that can be used for enhanced oil recovery. In this paper, a North Sea platform is considered as case study, and the site-scale retrofit integration of these three options is analysed, considering thermodynamic, economic and environmental performance indicators. The results illustrate...

  18. Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Pollutants Emissions Derived from Different Mitigation Measures in the Management of Solid Urban Waste in the Canton of San José, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Herrera Murillo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas and criteria pollutants emissions as well as the potential for electric power generation were estimated for four different scenarios of final disposal of solid urban waste (MSW in San Jose: landfill, incineration, composting and mechanical-biological treatment. Generation and composition waste data reported by the San Jose Department of Environmental Services were used as input for a life cycle analysis as well as the respective materials and energy flows for each proposal, based on the formulation of the respective balances of mass and energy. The final disposal in landfills is the treatment that emits more emissions of greenhouse gases with 532.5 Ton CO2e / d and a potential of electricity generation of up to 73.45 MWh, followed by the incineration of MSW with 401.9 Ton CO2e / d. However, alternative scenarios such as incineration additionally generate significant emissions of air pollutants such as particulates (5.14 Ton / d, NOx (0.75 Ton / d and CO (0.13 Ton / d.

  19. Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

    2017-10-01

    Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

  20. Development of a vaccine to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture: vaccination of sheep with methanogen fractions induces antibodies that block methane production in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedlock, D N; Pedersen, G; Denis, M; Dey, D; Janssen, P H; Buddle, B M

    2010-02-01

    To develop an understanding of the immune responses of ruminants to methanogens, and to provide proof of a concept that harnessing the immune system of ruminants is a potentially viable approach to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Four subcellular fractions, namely cytoplasmic, two cell-wall preparations, and cell wall-derived proteins were prepared from Methanobrevibacter ruminantium M1. Twenty sheep (10 months of age) were vaccinated with these fractions or with whole cells (n=4 per group). Sheep were re-vaccinated once after 3 weeks, and antibody responses to M. ruminantium M1 antigens in sera and saliva measured using ELISA at 2 weeks after the second vaccination. Antigens recognised by the antisera were visualised using Western blotting. The antisera were tested in vitro for their impact on M. ruminantium M1, measuring the effect on cell growth, methane production, and ability to induce agglutination. Basal levels (pre-vaccination) of antibodies against M. ruminantium M1 antigens were low. Vaccination with the antigenic fractions induced strong antibody responses in serum. Both IgG and IgA responses to methanogen antigens were detected in saliva following vaccination. Western blot analysis of the antisera indicated reactivity of antibodies, and a wide range of proteins was present in the different methanogen fractions. Antisera against the various fractions agglutinated methanogens in an in-vitro assay. In addition, these antisera decreased the growth of a pure culture of a methanogen and production of methane in vitro. Antigens from methanogens are immunogenic in ruminants, and antisera from sheep vaccinated with fractions of methanogens have a significant impact on these organisms, inducing cell agglutination, and decreasing growth of methanogens and production of methane. Only antisera to selected methanogen fractions were able to achieve these effects. The results demonstrate the feasibility of a vaccination strategy to mitigate emission

  1. Assessment of Emerging Regional Air Quality (AQ) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Impacts and Potential Mitigation Strategies in U.S. Energy Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnon, Michael Mac

    The current domestic reliance on high-emitting fossil fuels for energy needs is the key driver of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollutant emissions driving both climate change and regional air quality (AQ) concerns. Moving forward, emission sources in U.S. energy sectors will be subjected to changes driven by numerous phenomena, including technology evolution, environmental impacts, sustainability goals, and socioeconomic factors. This evolution will directly affect emissions source-related impacts on regional AQ that effective emissions control strategies must account for, including relative source contributions. Though previous studies have evaluated the emissions and AQ impacts of different sectors, technologies and fuels, most previous studies have assessed emissions impacts only without using advanced atmospheric models to accurately account for both spatial and temporal emissions perturbations and atmospheric chemistry and transport. In addition, few previous studies have considered the integration of multiple technologies and fuels in different U.S. regions.. Finally, most studies do not project emissions several decades into the future to assess what sources should be targeted with priority over time. These aspects are critical for understanding how both emissions sources and potential mitigation strategies impact the formation and fate of primary and secondary pollutants, including ground-level ozone and particulate matter concentrations. Therefore, this work utilizes a set of modeling tools to project and then to spatially and temporally resolve emissions as input into a 3-D Eulerian AQ model to assess how sources of emissions contribute to future atmospheric pollutant burdens. Further, analyses of the potential impacts of alternative energy strategies contained in potential mitigation strategies are conducted for priority targets to develop an understanding of how to maximize AQ benefits and avoid unforeseen deleterious tradeoffs between GHG reduction

  2. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  3. Establishing a regional nitrogen management approach to mitigate greenhouse gas emission intensity from intensive smallholder maize production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Liang; Chen, Xinping; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Weifeng; Zhang, Fusuo

    2014-01-01

    The overuse of Nitrogen (N) fertilizers on smallholder farms in rapidly developing countries has increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and accelerated global N consumption over the past 20 years. In this study, a regional N management approach was developed based on the cost of the agricultural response to N application rates from 1,726 on-farm experiments to optimize N management across 12 agroecological subregions in the intensive Chinese smallholder maize belt. The grain yield and GHG emission intensity of this regional N management approach was investigated and compared to field-specific N management and farmers' practices. The regional N rate ranged from 150 to 219 kg N ha(-1) for the 12 agroecological subregions. Grain yields and GHG emission intensities were consistent with this regional N management approach compared to field-specific N management, which indicated that this regional N rate was close to the economically optimal N application. This regional N management approach, if widely adopted in China, could reduce N fertilizer use by more than 1.4 MT per year, increase maize production by 31.9 MT annually, and reduce annual GHG emissions by 18.6 MT. This regional N management approach can minimize net N losses and reduce GHG emission intensity from over- and underapplications, and therefore can also be used as a reference point for regional agricultural extension employees where soil and/or plant N monitoring is lacking.

  4. Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquarè, F A; Tormey, D; Vezzoli, L; Okrostsvaridze, A; Tutberidze, B

    2011-07-01

    In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision

  5. Mitigation : climate change briefing paper

    OpenAIRE

    Carbon Trust

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation entails finding ways to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Ways of mitigating climate change include reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services, increasing efficiency gains, increasing use and development of low-carbon technologies, and reducing non-fossil fuel emissions. Publisher PDF

  6. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  7. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Uranium Metal with Water in K Basin Sludge and Sludge Waste Forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2011-06-08

    corrosion rates in water alone and in simulated sludge were near or slightly below the metal-in-water rate while nitrate-free sludge/Aquaset II decreased rates by about a factor of 3. Addition of 1 M nitrate to simulated sludge decreased the corrosion rate by a factor of ~5 while 1 M nitrate in sludge/Aquaset II mixtures decreased the corrosion rate by ~2.5 compared with the nitrate-free analogues. Mixtures of simulated sludge with Aquaset II treated with 1 M nitrate had uranium corrosion rates about a factor of 8 to 10 lower than the water-only rate law. Nitrate was found to provide substantial hydrogen mitigation for immobilized simulant sludge waste forms containing Aquaset II or Aquaset II G clay. Hydrogen attenuation factors of 1000 or greater were determined at 60°C for sludge-clay mixtures at 1 M nitrate. Hydrogen mitigation for tests with PC and Aquaset II H (which contains PC) were inconclusive because of suspected failure to overcome induction times and fully enter into anoxic corrosion. Lessening of hydrogen attenuation at ~80°C and ~95°C for simulated sludge and Aquaset II was observed with attenuation factors around 100 to 200 at 1 M nitrate. Valuable additional information has been obtained on the ability of nitrate to attenuate hydrogen gas generation from solution, simulant K Basin sludge, and simulant sludge with immobilization agents. Details on characteristics of the associated reactions were also obtained. The present testing confirms prior work which indicates that nitrate is an effective agent to attenuate hydrogen from uranium metal corrosion in water and simulated K Basin sludge to show that it is also effective in potential candidate solidified K Basin waste forms for WIPP disposal. The hydrogen mitigation afforded by nitrate appears to be sufficient to meet the hydrogen generation limits for shipping various sludge waste streams based on uranium metal concentrations and assumed waste form loadings.

  8. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Uranium Metal with Water in K Basin Sludge and Sludge Waste Forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2011-01-01

    corrosion rates in water alone and in simulated sludge were near or slightly below the metal-in-water rate while nitrate-free sludge/Aquaset II decreased rates by about a factor of 3. Addition of 1 M nitrate to simulated sludge decreased the corrosion rate by a factor of ∼5 while 1 M nitrate in sludge/Aquaset II mixtures decreased the corrosion rate by ∼2.5 compared with the nitrate-free analogues. Mixtures of simulated sludge with Aquaset II treated with 1 M nitrate had uranium corrosion rates about a factor of 8 to 10 lower than the water-only rate law. Nitrate was found to provide substantial hydrogen mitigation for immobilized simulant sludge waste forms containing Aquaset II or Aquaset II G clay. Hydrogen attenuation factors of 1000 or greater were determined at 60 C for sludge-clay mixtures at 1 M nitrate. Hydrogen mitigation for tests with PC and Aquaset II H (which contains PC) were inconclusive because of suspected failure to overcome induction times and fully enter into anoxic corrosion. Lessening of hydrogen attenuation at ∼80 C and ∼95 C for simulated sludge and Aquaset II was observed with attenuation factors around 100 to 200 at 1 M nitrate. Valuable additional information has been obtained on the ability of nitrate to attenuate hydrogen gas generation from solution, simulant K Basin sludge, and simulant sludge with immobilization agents. Details on characteristics of the associated reactions were also obtained. The present testing confirms prior work which indicates that nitrate is an effective agent to attenuate hydrogen from uranium metal corrosion in water and simulated K Basin sludge to show that it is also effective in potential candidate solidified K Basin waste forms for WIPP disposal. The hydrogen mitigation afforded by nitrate appears to be sufficient to meet the hydrogen generation limits for shipping various sludge waste streams based on uranium metal concentrations and assumed waste form loadings.

  9. Algal capture of carbon dioxide; biomass generation as a tool for greenhouse gas mitigation with reference to New Zealand energy strategy and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Packer, Mike [Cawthron Institute, MacDiarmid Institute for Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology, 98 Halifax Street, Nelson 7010 (New Zealand)], E-mail: mike.packer@cawthron.org.nz

    2009-09-15

    The use of algae to capture carbon dioxide as a method for greenhouse gas mitigation is discussed. A small fraction of the sunlight energy that bathes Earth is captured by photosynthesis and drives most living systems. Life on Earth is carbon-based and the energy is used to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide into biological material (biomass), indeed fossil fuels that we consume today are a legacy of mostly algal photosynthesis. Algae can be thought of as marine and freshwater plants that have higher photosynthetic efficiencies than terrestrial plants and are more efficient capturing carbon (Box 1). They have other favourable characteristics for this purpose. In the context of New Zealand energy strategy and policy I discuss progress in growing algae and seaweeds with emphasis on their application for exhaust flue carbon recycling for possible generation of useful biomass. I also introduce schemes utilising wild oceanic algae for carbon dioxide sequestration and the merits and possible adverse effects of using this approach. This paper is designed as an approachable review of the science and technology for policy makers and a summary of the New Zealand policy environment for those wishing to deploy biological carbon sequestration.

  10. Algal capture of carbon dioxide. Biomass generation as a tool for greenhouse gas mitigation with reference to New Zealand energy strategy and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Packer, Mike [Cawthron Institute, MacDiarmid Institute for Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology, 98 Halifax Street, Nelson 7010 (New Zealand)

    2009-09-15

    The use of algae to capture carbon dioxide as a method for greenhouse gas mitigation is discussed. A small fraction of the sunlight energy that bathes Earth is captured by photosynthesis and drives most living systems. Life on Earth is carbon-based and the energy is used to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide into biological material (biomass), indeed fossil fuels that we consume today are a legacy of mostly algal photosynthesis. Algae can be thought of as marine and freshwater plants that have higher photosynthetic efficiencies than terrestrial plants and are more efficient capturing carbon (Box 1). They have other favourable characteristics for this purpose. In the context of New Zealand energy strategy and policy I discuss progress in growing algae and seaweeds with emphasis on their application for exhaust flue carbon recycling for possible generation of useful biomass. I also introduce schemes utilising wild oceanic algae for carbon dioxide sequestration and the merits and possible adverse effects of using this approach. This paper is designed as an approachable review of the science and technology for policy makers and a summary of the New Zealand policy environment for those wishing to deploy biological carbon sequestration. (author)

  11. Pileup Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Roloff, Jennifer; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Simultaneous proton-proton collisions, or pileup, at the LHC has a significant impact on jet reconstruction, requiring the use of advanced pileup mitigation techniques. Pileup mitigation may occur at several stages of the reconstruction process, and ATLAS uses a combination of schemes, including constituent reconstruction methods, constituent-level pileup-mitigation techniques, and jet-level pileup-mitigation algorithms. This talk describes the two constituent-reconstruction methods for jets used on ATLAS: TopoClustering and Particle Flow. This talk also has a first look at the performance of several constituent-level pileup mitigation techniques on ATLAS, including Constituent Subtraction, Voronoi Subtraction, SoftKiller, and the Cluster Vertex Fraction. Finally, other developments in tagging pileup jets is discussed, such as the forward jet vertex tagger (fJVT), which uses jet shapes and topological information to tag jets.

  12. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  13. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  14. Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

    2017-12-01

    India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

  15. Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Holling

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

  16. The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

  17. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  18. Effects of high energy prices on scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Final report; Energiepreise und Klimaschutz. Wirkung hoher Energietraegerpreise auf die CO{sub 2}-Emissionsminderung bis 2030. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix Christian; Graichen, Verena; Harthan, Ralph O.; Repenning, Julia [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany); Horn, Manfred [DIW Berlin (Germany); Krey, Volker; Markewitz, Peter; Martinsen, Dag [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe STE

    2008-05-15

    Against the background of high increases in the prices of the primary energy carriers crude oil, natural gas and hard coal, which are traded on international markets, three scenarios of the price development of the most important energy carriers are developed. Using energy price assumptions, a scenario analysis is undertaken with regard to the development of CO{sub 2} emissions in Germany as a whole as well as in terms of the different energy sectors. The emission scenarios are analysed with respect to the electricity industry in Germany using both IKARUS, the energy system model geared towards macroeconomic optimisation, and ELIAS, the sector model based on microeconomic considerations. The model analyses are supplemented by an overview of literature with regard to similar model analyses. (orig.)

  19. Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

  20. Mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emission and implications on fuel consumption due to clean energy vehicles as public passenger transport in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: A case study of trolley buses in Ring Road

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradhan, Shreekar; Ale, Bhakta Bahadur; Amatya, Vishwa Bhusan

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates the consequences in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission due to the possible intervention of the electric run trolley buses in the existing public transport system in a particular road up to the year 2025 in Kathmandu Valley. It projects the scenarios on the basis that the passenger travel demand is the function of population and income. Basically, it uses the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System software to develop Business as Usual scenario and the five alternative scenarios. The alternative scenarios are 100% replacement of vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes, 50% replacement, 25% replacement, stopping future growth of other vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes and 25% replacement in the first year, and combination scenarios. The results estimate that the passenger travel demand will increase by three folds from the year 2003 to the year 2025. It projects the three-fold increase of the existing vehicle activity by the year 2025 in Business as Usual scenario. The fuel consumption will increase by 2.4 times compared to the year 2003. It estimates the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission as 8.5 thousands tons in year 2003 which will increase by more than 3 times in year 2025. It estimates that 174.3 thousands t CO 2 e can be avoided in combination scenario. The paper concludes that the intervention of clean energy transport in the existing public transport can have a significant positive impact on the GHG emission and current fuel consumption

  1. Domestic Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aabakken, J.; Short, W.

    2003-01-01

    This report attempts to organize and evaluate scenarios of markets and technologies that could impact renewable and distributed electricity-generating technologies during the next 20-100 years in the United States. For the purposes of this report, scenarios are defined broadly as any projection or forecast that helps illuminate the potential of Renewable Electric Technologies (RETs) in the United States. Scenarios vary widely in terms of their scope-some focus on supply of fuels or narrow segments of markets with limited timeframes, while others are broader in scope and time span. There are several factors that influence the market penetration of renewable energy and distributed generation technologies. Most notable among these are natural gas prices, technology improvements, and policy measures. Natural gas prices are important because most new generating capacity, as well as marginal generation units, generally are natural-gas fired. Assumptions about the rate of improvement in renewable and distributed generation technologies can also have a significant impact on market penetration. Finally, policy measures that support these technologies, such as tax credits or interconnection standards, can contribute to their accelerated adoption.

  2. U.S. regional greenhouse gas emissions analysis comparing highly resolved vehicle miles traveled and CO2 emissions: mitigation implications and their effect on atmospheric measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and projections of fossil fuel energy demand show CO2 concentrations increasing indefinitely into the future. After electricity production, the transportation sector is the second largest CO2 emitting economic sector in the United States, accounting for 32.3% of the total U.S. emissions in 2002. Over 80% of the transport sector is composed of onroad emissions, with the remainder shared by the nonroad, aircraft, railroad, and commercial marine vessel transportation. In order to construct effective mitigation policy for the onroad transportation sector and more accurately predict CO2 emissions for use in transport models and atmospheric measurements, analysis must incorporate the three components that determine the CO2 onroad transport emissions: vehicle fleet composition, average speed of travel, and emissions regulation strategies. Studies to date, however, have either focused on one of these three components, have been only completed at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO2 emissions instead relying on the use of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as an emissions proxy. National-level projections of VMT growth is not sufficient to highlight regional differences in CO2 emissions growth due to the heterogeneity of vehicle fleet and each state’s road network which determines the speed of travel of vehicles. We examine how an analysis based on direct CO2 emissions and an analysis based on VMT differ in terms of their emissions and mitigation implications highlighting potential biases introduced by the VMT-based approach. This analysis is performed at the US state level and results are disaggregated by road and vehicle classification. We utilize the results of the Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions inventory which quantified emissions for the year 2002 across all economic sectors in the US at high resolution. We perform this comparison by fuel type,12 road types, and 12 vehicle types

  3. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  4. Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Mercedes; Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Harper, Richard; Mbow, Cheikh; Ravindranat, Nijavalli H; Sperling, Frank; Haberl, Helmut; Pinto, Alexandre de Siqueira; Smith, Pete

    2014-10-01

    The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces

  5. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to “neutralize” the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. - Highlights:

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark: 1. System design and gas distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassini, Filippo; Scheutz, Charlotte; Skov, Bent Henning

    2017-01-01

    -passive biocover system was constructed at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark. The biocover system was fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate collection wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the commonly observed surface emission hot spot areas resulting from an uGreenhouse gas...... was constructed at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark. The biocover system was fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate collection wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the commonly observed surface emission hot spot areas resulting from an uneven gas distribution to the active...

  8. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  9. Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The French government has decided to modify the conditions of extension of local natural gas authorities to neighbouring districts. The European Union is studying the conditions of internal gas market with the objective of more open markets although considering public service requirements

  10. Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the av miljø landfill, denmark: system design and gas distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Peter; Skov, B.; Cassini, Filippo

    2013-01-01

    -passive biocover system was constructed at the AV Miljø landfill. The biocover is fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the often observed overloaded hot spot areas resulting from uneven gas distribution to the active methane oxidation...

  11. Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policies for the Mitigation of Atmospheric Mercury Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafaj P.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study provides an analysis of the impact of global climate policies on mercury emissions using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS model in the time horizon up to 2050. The time evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: EU-27, China, India and the US. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Scenario calculations for mercury emissions indicate significant scope for co-benefits made possible through climate policies. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of co-benefits for mercury emissions estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 are allocated to China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  12. Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

  13. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  14. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste...

  15. Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

  16. Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brecha, Robert J.

    2008-01-01

    Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by 'peak oil' adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this 'peak fossil-fuel' limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports. (author)

  17. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO 2 e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO 2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO 2 e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO 2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO 2 e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

  18. The Effect of Increased Salinity and Temperature in Peat Soils from the Everglades: Implications for Biogenic Gas Production and Release Under a Sea Level Rise Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirianni, M.; Comas, X.

    2015-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is an increasingly important topic for many low-lying coastal areas such as South Florida. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) projects that sea level change in South Florida, over the next 50 years, will increase between 0.1 and 0.6 meters. Given the low elevation and its shallow slope, the Everglades region is highly susceptible to changes in sea level. Based on the USACE SLR projections it seems inevitable that previously unexposed freshwater areas of the southern Everglades will become increasingly exposed to saline water. The effects of such saline water intrusion into the current C dynamics of the Everglades (particularly in terms of biogenic gas production and emissions, i.e. CH4 and CO2) is however uncertain. As previously proposed by others, increases in salinity in peat soils will result in dilation of pore spaces and thus increases in hydraulic conductivity, while limiting methanogenesis. However, increases in temperature may induce the opposite effect, particularly in terms of methanogenic activity. Previous studies investigating the effects of increased salinity on freshwater peat soils in the Everglades are very limited, and to our knowledge none have intended to monitor the internal gas dynamics within the peat matrix using an array of geophysical and hydrological methods such as ground penetrating radar (GPR), time-lapse photography, gas chromatography, and constant head permeameter tests. Preliminary laboratory results showed (1) a progressive decrease in gas content within the peat matrix (i.e. production) and gas releases once fluid conductivity is increased; (2) a progressive increase in hydraulic conductivity once fluid conductivity is increased; and (3) maximum gas releases detected during early stages of pore dilation (after increasing salinity) followed by a progressive decrease in gas release as salinity increased. This study has implications for better understanding how C dynamics in the Everglades may be

  19. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  20. Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Cuenot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

  1. Final Report. SFAA No. DEFC02-98CH10961. Technical assistance for joint implementation and other supporting mechanisms and measures for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knight, Denise

    2001-10-15

    IIEC, a division of CERF, has developed an extensive base of experience implementing activities that support climate action by developing USIJI projects in transitional countries within Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and southern Africa. IIEC has been able to provide a range of technical and policy assistance to governments and industry in support of sustainable energy use. IIEC continues to work in key countries with local partners to develop and implement energy efficiency policies and standards, develop site-specific projects, and assist governing bodies to establish national priorities and evaluation criteria for approving GHG-mitigation projects. As part of this project, IIEC focused on promoting a series of activities in Thailand and South Africa in order to identify GHG mitigation projects and work within the national approval process of those countries. The sections of this report outline the activities conducted in each country in order to achieve that goal.

  2. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Van Marrewijk, Charles

    2007-01-01

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority - DTe - has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise - Gas Transport Services, or GTS - to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. This policy, in general, is in line with European legislation on the liberalization of the gas market. We model and simulate the (domestic) welfare effects of a 5 percent transport price reduction. From this, we conclude that at least three observations complicate matters substantially. First, GTS is government-owned, and the dominant shipper - Gasunie Trade and Supply (or GasTerra, as it was recoined recently) - is partly so (50%). Second, shippers enter into the competitive game to make profits. Third, not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but also foreign owners have a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other. Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the end-consumers. Third, it is unavoidable that a substantial part of the rents are transferred abroad. A general conclusion for policy-makers is that market liberalization might not bring ex post what they expected ex ante. (author)

  3. Rent distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market. A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Witteloostuijn, A.; Brakman, S.; Van Marrewijk, C.

    2005-09-01

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch Office of Energy Regulation (DTe) has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise (Gas Transport Services GTS) to lower its prices. In this report, we simulate the welfare effects of a five per cent transport price reduction. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. However, at least three observations complicate matters substantially: Observation 1: government ownership. GTS is government -owned, and the dominant shipper (Gasunie Trade and Supply) is partly so (50 %). Hence, lost revenues from the gas transport business will all emerge at the debit side of the government's budget, and part of the shippers' rent returns in the government's pockets. Observation 2: imperfect competition. Firms enter into the competitive game to make profits. Shippers are not different. So, apart from in the extreme case of perfect competition (or, more generally, perfect contestability), part of the rents will end up in the pockets of the shippers, rather than the endconsumers. Observation 3: rent export. The Netherlands are not an isolated island in the European gas ocean. Not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but apart from that have foreign owners a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, given the fact that the Dutch industry is not autarktic, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will always 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other (Observation 1). Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the endconsumers (Observation 2). Third, it is unavoidable

  4. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Witteloostuijn, Arjen [University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen (Belgium). Faculty of Applied Economics, Department of Management; Brakman, Steven [University of Groningen (Netherlands); Van Marrewijk, Charles [Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-12-15

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority - DTe - has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise - Gas Transport Services, or GTS - to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. This policy, in general, is in line with European legislation on the liberalization of the gas market. We model and simulate the (domestic) welfare effects of a 5 percent transport price reduction. From this, we conclude that at least three observations complicate matters substantially. First, GTS is government-owned, and the dominant shipper - Gasunie Trade and Supply (or GasTerra, as it was recoined recently) - is partly so (50%). Second, shippers enter into the competitive game to make profits. Third, not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but also foreign owners have a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other. Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the end-consumers. Third, it is unavoidable that a substantial part of the rents are transferred abroad. A general conclusion for policy-makers is that market liberalization might not bring ex post what they expected ex ante. (author)

  5. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Witteloostuijn, Arjen van [Faculty of Applied Economics, Department of Management, University of Antwerpen, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerpen (Belgium)], E-mail: arjen.vanwitteloostuijn@ua.ac.be; Brakman, Steven [University of Groningen (Netherlands); van Marrewijk, Charles [Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-12-15

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority-DTe-has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise-Gas Transport Services, or GTS-to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. This policy, in general, is in line with European legislation on the liberalization of the gas market. We model and simulate the (domestic) welfare effects of a 5 percent transport price reduction. From this, we conclude that at least three observations complicate matters substantially. First, GTS is government-owned, and the dominant shipper-Gasunie Trade and Supply (or GasTerra, as it was recoined recently)-is partly so (50%). Second, shippers enter into the competitive game to make profits. Third, not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but also foreign owners have a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other. Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the end-consumers. Third, it is unavoidable that a substantial part of the rents are transferred abroad. A general conclusion for policy-makers is that market liberalization might not bring ex post what they expected ex ante.

  6. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

  7. Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

  8. Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

  9. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

  10. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  11. Climate change mitigation: Deposing global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Alissa

    2014-05-01

    Accounting for time-dependent mechanisms in greenhouse gas radiative forcing and evaluating the performance of mitigation technologies in the context of climate stabilization targets can better inform technology choices today and in the future.

  12. Rent distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market. A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Witteloostuijn, A.; Brakman, S. [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Marrewijk, C. [Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2005-09-15

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch Office of Energy Regulation (DTe) has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise (Gas Transport Services GTS) to lower its prices. In this report, we simulate the welfare effects of a five per cent transport price reduction. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. However, at least three observations complicate matters substantially: Observation 1: government ownership. GTS is government -owned, and the dominant shipper (Gasunie Trade and Supply) is partly so (50 %). Hence, lost revenues from the gas transport business will all emerge at the debit side of the government's budget, and part of the shippers' rent returns in the government's pockets. Observation 2: imperfect competition. Firms enter into the competitive game to make profits. Shippers are not different. So, apart from in the extreme case of perfect competition (or, more generally, perfect contestability), part of the rents will end up in the pockets of the shippers, rather than the endconsumers. Observation 3: rent export. The Netherlands are not an isolated island in the European gas ocean. Not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but apart from that have foreign owners a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, given the fact that the Dutch industry is not autarktic, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will always 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other (Observation 1). Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the endconsumers (Observation 2

  13. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  14. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation And Agriculture, Trade-off Or Win-win Situation: Bioeconomic Farm Modelling In The Sudanian Area of Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, T. E.; Barbier, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes talks regularly underline that developing countries' agriculture could play a stronger role in GHGs mitigation strategies and benefit from the Kyoto Protocol program of subsidies. Scientists explain that agriculture can contribute to carbon mitigation by storing more carbon in the soil through greener cropping systems. In this context, a growing number of research projects have started to investigate how developing countries agriculture can contribute to these objectives. The clean development mechanism (CDM) proposed in the Kyoto protocol is one particular policy instrument that can incite farmers to mitigate the GHG balance towards more sequestration and less emission. Some economists such as Michael Porter think that environmental regulation lead to a win-win outcome, in which case subsidies are not necessary. If it is a trade-off between incomes and the environment, subsidies are required. CDM can be mobilized to support the mitigation strategy. Agriculture implies the use of inputs. Reducing the emission implies the reduction of those inputs which will in turn imply a yield decrease. The study aims to assess whether this measure will imply a trade-off between environmental and economic objectives or a win-win situation. I apply this study to the case of small farmers in Burkina Faso through environmental instruments such as the emissions limits and agroforestry using a bioeconomic model, in which the farmers maximize their utility subject to constraints. The study finds that the limitation of emissions in annual crops production involves a trade-off. by impacting negatively their net cash come. By integrating perennial crops in the farming system, the farmers' utility increases. Around 6,118 kg are sequestrated individually. By computing the value on this carbon balance, farmers' net cash incomes go better. Then practicing agroforestry is a win-win situation, as they reach a higher level of income, and reduce emissions. Policymakers must

  15. Electrification and Decarbonization: Exploring U.S. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bielen, Dave [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eichman, Josh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wilson, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-07-19

    Electrification of end-use services in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors coupled with decarbonization of electricity generation has been identified as one of the key pathways to achieving a low-carbon future in the United States. By lowering the carbon intensity of the electricity generation and substituting electricity for higher-emissions fossil fuels in end-use sectors, significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. This report describes a preliminary analysis that examines the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the U.S. energy sector. We develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is aggressively pursued across all end-use sectors and examine the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on electricity load patterns, total fossil energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and the evolution of the U.S. power system.

  16. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  17. Comparing top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane emissions across multiple U.S. oil and gas basins provides insights into national O&G emissions, mitigation strategies, and research priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, D. R.; Alvarez, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a county-level inventory of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions by integrating multiple data sources including the Drillinginfo oil and gas (O&G) production database, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, a previously published gridded EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Maasakkers et al 2016), and recent measurements studies of O&G pneumatic devices, equipment leaks, abandoned wells, and midstream facilities. Our bottom-up estimates of total and O&G methane emissions are consistently lower than top-down, aerial mass balance estimates in ten O&G production areas. We evaluate several hypotheses for the top-down/bottom-up discrepancy including potential bias of the aerial mass balance method, temporal mismatch of top-down and bottom-up emission estimates, and source attribution errors. In most basins, the top-down/bottom-up gap cannot be explained fully without additional O&G emissions from sources not included in traditional inventories, such as super-emitters caused by malfunctions or abnormal process conditions. Top-down/bottom-up differences across multiple basins are analyzed to estimate the magnitude of these additional emissions and constrain total methane emissions from the U.S. O&G supply chain. We discuss the implications for mitigating O&G methane emissions and suggest research priorities for increasing the accuracy of future emission inventories.

  18. Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries F.; Pfluger, Benjamin; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Girod, Bastien; Ruijven, Bas J. van

    2013-01-01

    Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO 2 -equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers. - Highlights: ► We model the effects of 15 climate change mitigation measures in Europe. ► We assess the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential in different sectors. ► The measures could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% below 1990 levels in 2050. ► The approach allows to explore arguably more relevant climate policy scenarios

  19. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  20. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engström

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  1. Fe(III) fertilization mitigating net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in paddy rice-wheat rotation systems in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuwei; Zhang, Ling; Liu, Qiaohui; Zou, Jianwen

    2012-05-01

    A complete accounting of net greenhouse gas balance (NGHGB) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) affected by Fe(III) fertilizer application was examined in typical annual paddy rice-winter wheat rotation cropping systems in southeast China. Annual fluxes of soil carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were measured using static chamber method, and the net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) was determined by the difference between soil CO(2) emissions (R(H)) and net primary production (NPP). Fe(III) fertilizer application significantly decreased R(H) without adverse effects on NPP of rice and winter wheat. Fe(III) fertilizer application decreased seasonal CH(4) by 27-44%, but increased annual N(2)O by 65-100%. Overall, Fe(III) fertilizer application decreased the annual NGHGB and GHGI by 35-47% and 30-36%, respectively. High grain yield and low greenhouse gas intensity can be reconciled by Fe(III) fertilizer applied at the local recommendation rate in rice-based cropping systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Least cost supply-side options for mitigating greenhouse gas and other harmful emissions from the power sector. Sri Lanka case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, W.J.L.S. [Sri Lanka Energy Managers' Association, Colombo (Sri Lanka); Priyantha, D.C. [Wijayatunga Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa (Sri Lanka); Shrestha, Ram [Energy Program, Asian Institute of Technology, Klong Luang, Pathumthani (Thailand)

    2002-03-01

    Sri Lanka is predominantly a fossil fuel-importing country with relatively high rainfall mainly in the central hilly region. This factor has led to its heavy dependence on hydro-power to satisfy its power generation needs during the past century since electricity was first introduced into the country. However, the economic hydro-power resources are limited, as Sri Lanka has already exploited the major component of these economic resources. The long-term least-cost option of power generation has given rise to the installation of approximately 600 MW of oil-fired plants. Further, this planning process will result in the addition of 1800 MW of coal-fired plants within the next 15 years. These thermal plant additions will undoubtedly increase harmful emissions, which at present stand at a relatively low level, from the power sector. This paper analyses various clean coal options and renewable energy technologies as supply-side options for mitigating harmful emissions from the power sector, considering their technical potential and economic feasibility with emphasis on carbon dioxide emissions, given their global warming potential. The sensitivities of the results of the study to different input parameters are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that the least expensive supply-side options for emission reduction in Sri Lanka are the use of renewable energy technologies such as wind power and fuelwood-fired dendrothermal plants. Further, in percentage terms, the incremental cost of these reductions is only half the value of the emission reductions achieved.

  3. Optimizing water management practices for enhancing rice production and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Asia: The food-water-climate nexus approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Tian, H.; Lu, C.; Yang, J.; Ren, W.

    2015-12-01

    Rice fields, supporting over half of the global population, consumed around 30% of the freshwater used for global crop growth and identified as one of the major methane (CH4) sources. Asia, in where 90% of rice is consumed, took over 90% of the total CH4 emission from the global rice field. With the increasing water scarcity and rapidly growth population, it is urgent to address how to simultaneously maintain or even increase food production, reduce water consumption, and benefit climate. In this study, we used a process-based model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model), which has the capability to simultaneously simulate the carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes and storages within the terrestrial ecosystem, and also the exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, to quantify the magnitude, spatial and temporal variation of rice production and CH4 emissions under different water management practices. Simulated results have been evaluated against field observations, inventory-based and atmospheric inversion estimates. By implementing a set of experimental simulations, the results could provide insights for reasonable implementation of optimum water management practices, which is also crucial for policy maker to make trade-off decisions to increase yield and reduce GHG emissions through effective mitigation strategies.

  4. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-01-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  5. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  6. Early Action on Hfcs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying theUNFCCCParis Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid- 21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 Kat 80 hPa. The HFCmitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

  7. The role of nuclear energy in mitigating greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-01-01

    A behavioral, top-down, forced-equilibrium market model of long-term (∼ 2,100) global energy-economics interactions has been modified with a bottom-up nuclear energy model and used to construct consistent scenarios describing future impacts of civil nuclear materials flows in an expanding, multi-regional (13) world economy. The relative measures and tradeoffs between economic (GNP, tax impacts, productivity, etc.), environmental (greenhouse gas accumulations, waste accumulation, proliferation risk), and energy (resources, energy mixes, supply-side versus demand-side attributes) interactions that emerge from these analyses are focused herein on advancing understanding of the role that nuclear energy (and other non-carbon energy sources) might play in mitigating greenhouse warming. Two ostensibly opposing scenario drivers are investigated: (a) demand-side improvements in (non-price-induced) autonomous energy efficiency improvements; and (b) supply-side carbon-tax inducements to shift energy mixes towards reduced- or non-carbon forms. In terms of stemming greenhouse warming for minimal cost of greenhouse-gas abatement, and with the limitations of the simplified taxing schedule used, a symbiotic combination of these two approaches may offer advantages not found if each is applied separately

  8. Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

  9. Comparison of turbulence mitigation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozacik, Stephen T.; Paolini, Aaron; Sherman, Ariel; Bonnett, James; Kelmelis, Eric

    2017-07-01

    When capturing imagery over long distances, atmospheric turbulence often degrades the data, especially when observation paths are close to the ground or in hot environments. These issues manifest as time-varying scintillation and warping effects that decrease the effective resolution of the sensor and reduce actionable intelligence. In recent years, several image processing approaches to turbulence mitigation have shown promise. Each of these algorithms has different computational requirements, usability demands, and degrees of independence from camera sensors. They also produce different degrees of enhancement when applied to turbulent imagery. Additionally, some of these algorithms are applicable to real-time operational scenarios while others may only be suitable for postprocessing workflows. EM Photonics has been developing image-processing-based turbulence mitigation technology since 2005. We will compare techniques from the literature with our commercially available, real-time, GPU-accelerated turbulence mitigation software. These comparisons will be made using real (not synthetic), experimentally obtained data for a variety of conditions, including varying optical hardware, imaging range, subjects, and turbulence conditions. Comparison metrics will include image quality, video latency, computational complexity, and potential for real-time operation. Additionally, we will present a technique for quantitatively comparing turbulence mitigation algorithms using real images of radial resolution targets.

  10. Synechococcus nidulans from a thermoelectric coal power plant as a potential CO2 mitigation in culture medium containing flue gas wastes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Jessica Hartwig; Costa, Jorge Alberto Vieira

    2017-10-01

    This study evaluated the intermittent addition of coal flue gas wastes (CO 2 , SO 2 , NO and ash) into a Synechococcus nidulans LEB 115 cultivation in terms of growth parameters, CO 2 biofixation and biomass characterization. The microalga from a coal thermoelectric plant showed tolerance up to 200ppm SO 2 and NO, with a maximum specific growth rate of 0.18±0.03d - 1 . The addition of thermal coal ash to the cultivation increased the Synechococcus nidulans LEB 115 maximum cell growth by approximately 1.3 times. The best CO 2 biofixation efficiency was obtained with 10% CO 2 , 60ppm SO 2 , 100ppm NO and 40ppm ash (55.0±3.1%). The biomass compositions in the assays were similar, with approximately 9.8% carbohydrates, 13.5% lipids and 62.7% proteins. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising of the...

  12. The role of China in mitigating climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey; Morris, Jennifer; Cai, Yongxia; Karplus, Valerie; Jacoby, Henry

    2012-01-01

    We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China's role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China's energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China's commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2 °C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1 °C to 1.3 °C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. - Highlights: ► It is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies. ► China's mitigation actions proposed for 2015 and 2020 are reachable at modest costs. ► Meeting 2 °C target is problematic without radical GHG emissions reductions.

  13. What Role Should Black Carbon Play in Climate Change Mitigation Strategies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deangelo, B. J.

    2006-12-01

    The uncertainties of the black carbon-climate linkage remain large with regard to emissions quantification, temporal and regional atmospheric concentrations, and net radiative and other climatic effects. Given these physical uncertainties plus other economic and emission control considerations, what is the appropriate role for BC and organic carbon in any climate change mitigation strategy? If the climate effects of BC are considered `large enough' (a judgment call) to warrant emission controls to mitigate climate change, additional considerations are necessary to determine how best to do this. First, BC cannot be singly targeted, as BC is co-emitted with OC in various ratios depending on fuel type and combustion technology. The climate effects of any control strategy will depend on the net BC and OC, plus possible greenhouse gas, co-effects, which in turn will vary by specific emission source, sector and region. Second, the extent to which air quality policies (primarily targeting particulate matter for health concerns) control BC and OC can determine whether additional emission mitigation is necessary, or if additional mitigation is best pursued within the context of air quality policies, rather than being introduced into the climate area. In the U.S., on-road and off-road diesel vehicles are the largest sources of BC, but these emissions are expected to decline substantially over the next few decades due to recently issued U.S. EPA standards. Third is the issue of costs of BC reductions relative to the costs of other mitigation strategies. Results will be presented on 1) near-term (out to 2020) emission projections for the U.S. taking into account recent air quality regulations; 2) emerging work from the Energy Modeling Forum Black Carbon Subgroup on global and regional projections by region and sector, and mitigation scenarios; and 3) the costs of potential BC mitigation options for the U.S.

  14. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  15. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2013-01-01

    The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

  16. WVNS Tank Farm Process Support: Experimental evaluation of an inert gas (nitrogen) to mitigate external corrosion of high-level waste storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elmore, M.R.

    1996-02-01

    Corrosion of the carbon steel waste storage tanks at West Valley Nuclear Services continues to be of concern, especially as the planned duration of waste storage time increases and sludge washing operations are conducted. The external surfaces of Tanks 8D-1 and 8D-2 have been exposed for more than 10 years to water that has intruded into the tank vaults. Visual inspection of the external tank surfaces using a remote video camera has shown indications of heavy corrosion in localized areas on the tank walls. Tests on mild steel specimens under simulated tank vault conditions showed that corrosion is related to the availability of oxygen for the corrosion reactions; consequently, removing oxygen as one of the reactants should effectively eliminate corrosion. In terms of the waste tanks, excluding oxygen from the annular vault space, such as by continuous flushing with an inert gas, should substantially decrease corrosion of the external surfaces of the mild steel tanks (100% exclusion of oxygen is probably not practicable). Laboratory corrosion testing was conducted at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to give a preliminary assessment of the ability of nitrogen-inerting to reduce steel corrosion. This report summarizes test results obtained after 18-month corrosion tests comparing open-quotes nitrogen-inertedclose quotes corrosion with open-quotes air-equilibratedclose quotes corrosion under simulated tank vault conditions

  17. Surface damage mitigation of TC4 alloy via micro arc oxidation for oil and gas exploitation application: Characterizations of microstructure and evaluations on surface performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Ruizhen; Lin, Naiming; Zhou, Peng; Zou, Jiaojuan; Han, Pengju; Wang, Zhihua; Tang, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Because of its excellent corrosion resistance, high specific strength and high tensile strength, TC4 titanium alloys used as petroleum tubes have received wide interest from material engineers after many technical investigations and estimations. However, because of its low surface hardness values, high coefficient of friction and poor wear resistance, the TC4 alloy is seldom adopted in tribological-related engineering components. In this work, micro-arc oxidation (MAO) coatings were fabricated on TC4 alloys in NaAlO2 and (NaPO3)6 electrolytes with and without ultrasonic assistance. The microstructural characterizations of the produced MAO coatings were investigated. Comparative estimations of electrochemical corrosion in CO2-saturated simulated oilfield brine and tribological behaviours on MAO coatings and TC4 alloys were conducted. The results showed that the introduction of ultrasound increased the thickness of the MAO coatings. The thickness increased by 34% and 15% in the NaAlO2 and (NaPO3)6 electrolytes, respectively. There was no significant discrepancy in phase constitutions when the MAO processes were conducted with and without ultrasonic assistance. Both MAO coatings obtained with and without ultrasonic assistance were found to improve the corrosion and wear resistance of the TC4 alloy. MAO treatments made it possible to ensure the working surface of a TC4 alloy with an enhanced surface performance for oil and gas exploitation applications.

  18. Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Global Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hussein, Zekarias; Golub, Alla A.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2012-01-01

    Mitigating the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading environmental policy concerns of the 21st Century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, content and, most importantly, about the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One major contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. This paper provides quantitative evidence on t...

  19. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  20. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario : planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework : to develop a scenario planning approach tailored t...

  1. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  2. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  3. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  4. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  5. Greenhouse gas scenario in Indian continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, T. N.

    1999-12-01

    Global climate change depicts energy exchange balance between the earth and atmosphere and the space. The balance is affected by human activities -- burning of fuel -- fossil or biological generating carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide or trace gases. Accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere may follow intensification of green house effect and cause global sea warming. Warming may affect agriculture, forestry, water resources and rising or falling of levels. The burning of fuel is for the generation of commercial energy -- electricity, household energy -- cooking, heating or burning of bushes, waste product and biomass. The world population distribution reveals heavy tilt in terms of growth rate and the cumulative figure. Nearly 80% of the world population is in the developing economy with only 20% resource available to them. The energy demand in five major Asian developing economy for the year 1990 is summarized.

  6. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana R Lane

    Full Text Available The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU greenhouse gas (GHG emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  7. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  8. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  9. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  10. Biojet fuels and emissions mitigation in aviation: An integrated assessment modeling analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, Marshall; Muratori, Matteo; Kyle, Page

    2017-05-01

    Although the aviation sector is a relatively small contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions, it is a fast-growing, fossil fuel-intensive transportation mode. Because aviation is a mode for which liquid fuels currently have no practical substitute, biofuels are gaining attention as a promising cleaner alternative. In this paper, we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to develop scenarios that explore the potential impact of biojet fuels for use in aviation in the context of broader climate change mitigation. We show that a carbon price would have a significant impact on the aviation sector. In the absence of alternatives to jet fuel from petroleum, mitigation potential is limited and would be at the expense of aviation service demand growth. However, mitigation efforts through the increased use of biojet fuels show potential to reduce the carbon intensity of aviation, and may not have a significant impact on carbon mitigation and bioenergy use in the rest of the energy system. The potential of biofuel to decarbonize air transport is significantly enhanced when carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is used in the conversion process to produce jet fuels from biomass feedstock.

  11. Inventory and Policy Reduction Potential of Greenhouse Gas and Pollutant Emissions of Road Transportation Industry in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, emissions from the road transportation industry in China have been increasing rapidly. To evaluate the reduction potential of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions of the industry in China, its emission inventory was calculated and scenario analysis was created for the period between 2012 and 2030 in this paper. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP model, the development of China’s road transportation industry in two scenarios (the business-as-usual (BAU scenario and the comprehensive-mitigation (CM scenario was simulated. In the Comprehensive Mitigation scenario, there are nine various measures which include Fuel Economy Standards, Auto Emission Standards, Energy-saving Technology, Tax Policy, Eco-driving, Logistics Informatization, Vehicle Liquidation, Electric Vehicles, and Alternative Fuels. The cumulative energy and emission reductions of these specific measures were evaluated. Our results demonstrate that China’s road transportation produced 881 million metric tons of CO2 and emitted 1420 thousand tons of CO, 2150 thousand tons of NOx, 148 thousand tons of PM10, and 745 thousand tons of HC in 2012. The reduction potential is quite large, and road freight transportation is the key mitigation subsector, accounting for 85%–92% of the total emission. For energy conservation and carbon emission mitigation, logistics informatization is the most effective method, potentially reducing 1.80 billion tons of coal equivalent and 3.83 billion tons of CO2 from 2012 to 2030. In terms of air pollutant emission mitigation, the auto emission standards measure performs best with respect to NOx, PM10, and HC emission mitigation, and logistic informatization measure is the best in CO emission reduction. In order to maximize the mitigation potential of China’s road transportation industry, the government needs to implement various measures in a timely and strict fashion.

  12. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational l...... theoretical understanding of scenario planning while simultaneously presenting a more nuanced account of the individual behaviors and social dynamics underpinning organizational learning.......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...

  13. Assessing scenarios of the brazilian energy matrix in the long-term plan of Ministry of Mines and Energy: impacts in the oil and gas industry; Avaliacao de cenarios de matriz energetica nacional no plano de longo prazo do Ministerio de Minas e Energia: impactos na industria de oleo e gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Szklo, Alexandre; Schaeffer, Roberto [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico

    2004-07-01

    The Law no. 9,478/97 establishes that among its attributions the Energy Policy National Council (CNPE) must review periodically the national energy matrix. This paper aims at discussing the scenarios considered in the current revision based on an integrated energy planning approach, identifying its key points and analyzing its eventual consequences, particularly for oil and gas industry. More precisely, it evaluates the effects over the O and G industry of changes in the international and national circumstances. The international key factors focused are, mainly, oil and oil product prices and productive and technological strategies of O and G companies. The national key factors discussed fuel prices, inter-fuel substitution potentials, efficiency levels, potentials of new discovers and characteristics of Brazilian reserves of oil and natural gas (on-shore or off-shore E and P, oil or gas fields, API degree density, sulfur and acid contents), and adequate energy infra-structure (necessity of distribution and transportation grid expansion, refining capacity etc.). Such discussions have important implications for public policies and corporate strategies. (author)

  14. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in Brazil for land-use change, livestock and agriculture Opções de mitigação de gases do efeito estufa na mudança do uso da terra, pecuária e agricultura no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Clemente Cerri

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available National inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG emissions (implementation of the National Communications are organized according to five main sectors, namely: Energy, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LUCF and Waste. The objective of this study was to review and calculate the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in Brazil for the Agricultural and LUCF. The first step consisted in an analysis of Brazilian official and unofficial documents related to climate change and mitigation policies. Secondly, business as usual (BAU and mitigation scenarios were elaborated for the 2010-2020 timeframe, and calculations of the corresponding associated GHG emissions and removals were performed. Additionally, two complementary approaches were used to point out and quantify the main mitigation options: a following the IPCC 1996 guidelines and b based on EX-ACT. Brazilian authorities announced that the country will target a reduction in its GHG between 36.1 and 38.9% from projected 2020 levels. This is a positive stand that should also be adopted by other developing countries. To reach this government goal, agriculture and livestock sectors must contribute with an emission reduction of 133 to 166 Mt CO2-eq. This seems to be reachable when confronted to our mitigation option values, which are in between the range of 178.3 to 445 Mt CO2-eq. Government investments on agriculture are necessary to minimize the efforts from the sectors to reach their targets.Inventários nacionais acerca de emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEE (refinamentos das Comunicações Nacionais são organizadas de acordo com cinco principais setores, a saber: Energia, Processos Industriais, Agropecuária, Mudanças do Uso da Terra e Florestas e Tratamento de Resíduos. O objetivo dessa revisão foi calcular o potencial das estratégias de mitigação de GEE no Brasil para agropecuária e mudança de uso da terra e florestas. A primeira

  15. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-François; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-10-01

    To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110-285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80-300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast

  16. Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

    2016-10-01

    Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

  17. The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

    2012-01-01

    Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

  18. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  19. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    By: Lansdowne Technologies Inc. 1001-247 Slater Street Ottawa ON, K1P 5H9 Contractor’s Document Number: Contract Project Manager : Peter Avis... management , focusing on eliciting a Whole of Government (WoG) response. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, it is not...capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé …..... Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat

  20. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  1. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  3. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  4. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  5. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional...

  6. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...

  7. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing...... on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  8. Characterizations of purple non-sulfur bacteria isolated from paddy fields, and identification of strains with potential for plant growth-promotion, greenhouse gas mitigation and heavy metal bioremediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakpirom, Jakkapan; Kantachote, Duangporn; Nunkaew, Tomorn; Khan, Eakalak

    2017-04-01

    This study was aimed at selecting purple non-sulfur bacteria (PNSB) isolated from various paddy fields, including Cd- and Zn-contaminated paddy fields, based on their biofertilizer properties. Among 235 PNSB isolates, strain TN110 was most effective in plant growth-promoting substance (PGPS) production, releasing 3.2 mg/L of [Formula: see text] , 4.11 mg/L of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) and 3.62 mg/L of indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), and reducing methane emission up to 80%. This strain had nifH, vnfG and anfG, which are the Mo, V and Fe nitrogenase genes encoded for key enzymes in nitrogen fixation under different conditions. This strain provided 84% and 55% removal of Cd and Zn, respectively. Another isolate, TN414, not only produced PGPS (1.30 mg/L of [Formula: see text] , 0.94 mg/L of ALA and 0.65 mg/L of IAA), but was also efficient in removing both Cd and Zn at 72% and 74%, respectively. Based on 16S rDNA sequencing, strain TN110 was identified as Rhodopseudomonas palustris, while strain TN414 was Rubrivivax gelatinosus. A combination of TN110 and TN414 could potentially provide a biofertilizer, which is a greener alternative to commercial/chemical fertilizers and an agent for bioremediation of heavy metals and greenhouse gas mitigation in paddy fields. Copyright © 2016 Institut Pasteur. All rights reserved.

  9. Potencial de redução de emissão de equivalente de carbono de uma unidade suinícola com biodigestor Greenhouse gas emission mitigation from a pig farm with digestor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André R. Angonese

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar o potencial de reduções de emissão de carbono, em tCO2 eq ano-1, e estimar o valor financeiro obtido anualmente para o total de suínos da granja e o valor médio anual por animal em suinocultura, em sistema de recria e engorda, com capacidade instalada para 600 animais. O sistema de tratamento dos dejetos é realizado de forma integrada, possibilitando a reciclagem dos nutrientes, em que o biodigestor anaeróbio tubular estabiliza a matéria orgânica, produzindo metano e biofertilizante no processo. A estimativa foi efetuada baseando-se na metodologia AM0006, aprovada pelo Conselho Executivo do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo do IPCC. O potencial de redução de emissão de CO2 equivalente por ano foi de 325,16 t, correspondendo à redução de emissão de 0,54 tCO2 eq animal-1 ano-1, e a possibilidade de ganho financeiro com a comercialização desses créditos de carbono de aproximadamente R$ 5,31 animal-1 ano-1.Greenhouse gas emissions (tCO2 eq year-1 and the money earned annually with the total amount of pigs and the average per pig were evaluate. The pig farm has about 600 animals. The waste treatment sistem is integrated making possible the nutrients recycling. The tubular anaerobic digestor degrade organic matter producing methane and fertilizer. The estimation made was based on the methodology AM0006 approved by Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board. The mitigation potential calculated was 325.16 tCO² eq year-1, or 0.54 tCO² eq year-1. The financial income was approximately R$ 5.31 animal-1 year-1.

  10. Mitigating for nature in Danish infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Christensen, Per

    2015-01-01

    his paper presents results of a Danish study of mitigation efforts directed at nature protection in EIA of Danish infrastructure projects. The projects included in the study comprise road, rail, bridges, tunnels cables and oil- and gas-pipes. The study is based on a document analysis of EIA repor...

  11. Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  12. Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

  13. Advanced insider threat mitigation workshop instructional materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2008-11-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is a n update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios.

  14. 300 Area Building Retention Evaluation Mitigation Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. J. McBride

    2007-07-03

    Evaluate the long-term retention of several facilities associated with the PNNL Capability Replacement Laboratory and other Hanfor mission needs. WCH prepared a mitigation plan for three scenarios with different release dates for specific buildings. The evaluations present a proposed plan for providing utility services to retained facilities in support of a long-term (+20 year) lifespan in addition to temporary services to buildings with specified delayed release dates.

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  17. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  18. Climate change mitigation and productivity gains in livestock supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mottet, Anne; Henderson, Benjamin; Opio, Carolyn; Falcucci, Alessandra; Tempio, Giuseppe; Silvestri, Silvia; Chesterman, Sabrina; Gerber, Pierre J.

    2016-01-01

    Livestock can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and by increasing soil carbon sequestration. Packages of mitigation techniques can bring large environmental benefits as illustrated in six case studies modeled in the Global Livestock Environmental

  19. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  20. Mitigation of Oil in Water Column: Mitigation Prototype Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Mitigation of Oil in Water Column: Mitigation Prototype Tests Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release...of Oil in Water Column: Mitigation Prototype Tests ii UNCLAS\\\\Public | CG-926 RDC A. Balsley & Dr. M. Fitzpatrick | Public | June 2017 N...06320 Mitigation of Oil in Water Column: Mitigation Prototype Tests iii UNCLAS\\\\Public | CG-926 RDC A. Balsley & Dr. M. Fitzpatrick | Public

  1. Mitigation Action Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This Mitigation Action Plan (MAP) focuses on mitigation commitments stated in the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) and the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1 (NPR-1). Specific commitments and mitigation implementation actions are listed in Appendix A-Mitigation Actions, and form the central focus of this MAP. They will be updated as needed to allow for organizational, regulatory, or policy changes. It is the intent of DOE to comply with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental, safety, and health laws and regulations. Eighty-six specific commitments were identified in the SEIS and associated ROD which pertain to continued operation of NPR-1 with petroleum production at the Maximum Efficient Rate (MER). The mitigation measures proposed are expected to reduce impacts as much as feasible, however, as experience is gained in actual implementation of these measures, some changes may be warranted.

  2. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Bernstein, Lenny; Roy, Joyashree; Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Harnisch, Jochen

    2009-02-02

    Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

  3. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheridan Few

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

  4. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  5. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  6. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  7. Deixis mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnik Olga Gennadievna

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the deictic mitigation as a special type of mitigation devices directed at distancing the speaker from the content of the utterance. In most cases, the point of reference coincides with the speaker. It is well known that the main types of deixis are person, place and time. It was found out that the deixis of place does not play a significant role in the expression of the mitigation strategy. The research has revealed that reference to both the time and the person coordinates of the deictic center plays an important part in the development of mitigating strategies. The main distancing strategy with the help of the time deixis is the usage of conditional forms of verbs. In addition to mitigating strategy underlying deictic shift along the temporal coordinate the speakers could use metaphoric shift along the coordinates of the speech act. It was proved that the deletion of the speech act participants’ identity (the indefinite pronoun one, the agentless passive construction, and the pseudo-inclusive pronoun we. one can get the mitigating effect. The partial deictic shift from the speaker’s coordinate towards the listener brings about a particular perlocutionary effect: it diminishes the speaker’s role. The authors come to a conclusion about the necessity of highlighting the mitigating function of deixis, which is a kind of Deixis ad Phantasma but not as the secondary, narrative deixis but as the primary dialogue deixis referring to the information implied in the utterance.

  8. Climate impact of potential shale gas production in the EU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, D.; Perks, J. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-15

    Existing estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas production and available abatement options were used to obtain improved estimates of emissions from possible shale gas exploitation in the EU. GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated from shale gas were estimated to be around 4 to 8% higher than for electricity generated by conventional pipeline gas from within Europe. These additional emissions arise in the pre-combustion stage, predominantly in the well completion phase when the fracturing fluid is brought back to the surface together with released methane. If emissions from well completion are mitigated, through flaring or capture, and utilised, then this difference is reduced to 1 to 5%. The analysis suggests that the emissions from shale gas-based power generation (base case) are 2 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from sources of conventional pipeline gas located outside of Europe (in Russia and Algeria), and 7 to 10% lower than those from electricity generated from LNG imported into Europe. However, under our 'worst case' shale gas scenario, where all flow back gases at well completion are vented, emissions from electricity generated from shale gas would be similar to the upper emissions level for electricity generated from imported LNG and for gas imported from Russia.

  9. Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohareb, Eugene A.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

    2014-01-01

    Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges. - Highlights: • Explores policy options in a city targeting an 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050. • Aggressive building code changes will have minimal impact on GHG mitigation. • Support of low-carbon electricity for the majority of generation necessary by 2050. • Internal combustion engine use must be mostly eliminated from the vehicle stock. • Policies supporting elimination of physical exchange space should be promoted

  10. Smoldering - The Fire Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Torero, Jose L

    2000-01-01

    There are certain fire initiation scenarios that are particularly common, one of great significance is a fire initiated from the ignition of a porous fuel. Nearly 40% of the deaths due to fire can be traced to cigarette induced smolder of upholstered furniture and the mechanisms that control the process that transforms the weak smolder reaction occurring in the cigarette to a fire are still mostly unknown. A general description of this fire scenario and a discussion of its threats is pr...

  11. Source attribution and mitigation strategies for air pollution in Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesewetter, Gregor; Purohit, Pallav; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Liu, Jun; Amann, Markus; Bhanarkar, Anil

    2017-04-01

    Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5 concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5° resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2 × 2 km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5 in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weighted PM2.5 originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cookstoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in

  12. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)....

  13. Mitigation Monitoring Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-09-01

    The Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Report (SEIR) (September 1992) for the Proposed Renewal of the Contract between the Unit