WorldWideScience

Sample records for gas mitigation scenarios

  1. Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

    2011-01-01

    Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

  2. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  3. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

  4. Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

  5. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

  6. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew; Haw, Mary; Merven, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

  7. Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313935998

    2014-01-01

    In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

  8. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  9. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  10. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  11. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  12. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

  13. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, Tommi [TKK Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044 VTT (Finland); Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne (Germany)

    2010-04-15

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either or from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (author)

  14. CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

    2007-01-01

    China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

  15. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  16. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

    1999-01-01

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  17. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  18. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

  19. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

  20. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  1. Gas Mitigation in Paper Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, AS; Bittencourt, C.

    2017-07-01

    The Brazilian paper industry has competitive advantages offered by the favorable climate, which favors an increase in the yield of forest restoration, and consequently, in the productive process. On the other hand, following the greenhouse gases (GHG), we can see our constantly changing sun, causing the solar storms, allowing their prevention or mitigating measures. The objective of this work is to contribute to the construction of the understanding necessary for the reduction of GHG emission from a preliminary analysis of the pulp and paper sector. As a secondary objective, the text preliminarily analyzes a company’s behavior against the backdrop of the Paris Accord, which strengthens the global response to the threat of climate change and strengthens the capacity of countries to deal with the impacts of such changes. The identification of best practices in the pulp and paper industry is understood, focusing on environmental sustainability, such as the adoption of reforestation, obtaining significant results. In the case of the paper industry, the management of public forests for sustainable production, within the structure of the Ministry of the Environment, establishes the promotion of public awareness about the importance of conservation, recovery and sustainable management of forest resources.

  2. Greenhouse gas mitigation with scarce land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer-Aurich, A; Olesen, Jørgen E; Prochnow, A

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural lands have been identified to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions primarily by production of energy crops and substituting fossil energy resources and through carbon sequestration in soils. Increased fertilizer input resulting in increased yields may reduce the area needed for crop...

  3. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2009-12-15

    The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

  5. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A

    2012-01-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N 2 O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N 2 O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges. (letter)

  6. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Isaac, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Arnell, N.; Barker, T.; Criqui, P.; Berkhout, F.; Hilderink, H.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, Andries; Kitous, A.; Kram, T.; Mechler, R.; Scrieciu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation

  7. Gas powered fluid gun with recoil mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubelich, Mark C; Yonas, Gerold

    2013-11-12

    A gas powered fluid gun for propelling a stream or slug of a fluid at high velocity toward a target. Recoil mitigation is provided that reduces or eliminates the associated recoil forces, with minimal or no backwash. By launching a quantity of water in the opposite direction, net momentum forces are reduced or eliminated. Examples of recoil mitigation devices include a cone for making a conical fluid sheet, a device forming multiple impinging streams of fluid, a cavitating venturi, one or more spinning vanes, or an annular tangential entry/exit.

  8. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  9. Selection of appropriate greenhouse gas mitigation options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramanathan, R. [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India)

    1999-10-01

    Greenhouse gas mitigation options help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions so as to avoid the adverse environmental impacts due to global warming/climate change. They have different characteristics when evaluated using different criteria. For example, some options may be very cost effective, while some may have an additional advantage of reducing local pollution. Hence, selection of these options, for consideration by a national government or by a funding agency, has to incorporate multiple criteria. In this paper, some important criteria relevant to the selection are discussed, and a multi-criteria methodology is suggested for making appropriate selection. The methodology, called the Analytic Hierarchy Process, is described using two illustrations. (author)

  10. Greenhouse gas mitigation options for Washington State

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, N.

    1996-04-01

    President Clinton, in 1993, established a goal for the United States to return emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. One effort established to help meet this goal was a three part Environmental Protection Agency state grant program. Washington State completed part one of this program with the release of the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions inventory and 2010 projected inventory. This document completes part two by detailing alternative greenhouse gas mitigation options. In part three of the program EPA, working in partnership with the States, may help fund innovative greenhouse gas reduction strategies. The greenhouse gas control options analyzed in this report have a wide range of greenhouse gas reductions, costs, and implementation requirements. In order to select and implement a prudent mix of control strategies, policy makers need to have some notion of the potential change in climate, the consequences of that change and the uncertainties contained therein. By understanding the risks of climate change, policy makers can better balance the use of scarce public resources for concerns that are immediate and present against those that affect future generations. Therefore, prior to analyzing alternative greenhouse gas control measures, this report briefly describes the phenomenon and uncertainties of global climate change, and then projects the likely consequences for Washington state.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  12. An Attempt for an Emergent Scenario with Modified Chaplygin Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukerji, Sudeshna; Chakraborty, Subenoy; Dutta, Sourav

    2016-01-01

    The present work is an attempt for emergent universe scenario with modified Chaplygin gas. The universe is chosen as spatially flat FRW space-time with modified Chaplygin gas as the only cosmic substratum. It is found that emergent scenario is possible for some specific (unrealistic) choice of the parameters in the equation of state for modified Chaplygin gas.

  13. Modelled impacts of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from Finnish agriculture up to 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. REGINA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Emission scenarios based on integrated quantitative modelling are a valuable tool in planning strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation. By estimating the potential of individual mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resources can be targeted to the most promising policy measures. This paper reports two agricultural emission scenarios for Finland up to year 2020, one baseline scenario (Scenario 1 based on the projected agricultural production levels determined by markets and agricultural policy and one with selected mitigation measures included (Scenario 2. Measures selected for the analysis consisted of 1 keeping agricultural area at the current level, 2 decreasing the proportion of organic soils, 3 increasing the proportion of grass cultivation on organic soils and 4 supporting biogas production on farms. Starting from 2005, the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture would decrease 2.3% in Scenario 1 by 2020 whereas the respective decrease would be 11.5% in Scenario 2. According to the results, mitigation measures targeted to cultivation of organic soils have the largest potential to reduce the emissions. Such measures would include reducing the area of cultivated organic soils and increasing the proportion of perennial crops on the remaining area.

  14. Disruption mitigation experiment with massive gas injection of HT-7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Huidong; Zhang Xiaodong

    2013-01-01

    Massive gas injection (MGI) is a promising method on disruption mitigation. The working principle of the fast valve for disruption mitigation was introduced. The disruption mitigation experiments by MGI on HT-7 were described. The experiment shows that the impurities radiation is improved by injecting appropriate amount of gas, and the current quench rate is slow down, so the electromagnetic load on the device is mitigated. The experiments show that the fast valve can completely satisfy the requirement of disruption mitigation on HT-7. (authors)

  15. Nuclear power for greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.

    2000-11-01

    The possibility of global climate change resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is a major global concern. At the Third Conference of the Parties (CoP 3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held at Kyoto, in December 1997, industrialized countries agreed to accept binding commitments that would reduce their collective GHG emissions, in the 2008-2012 commitment period, by at least 5% below 1990 levels. These countries also agreed to make demonstrable progress towards reducing GHG emissions by 2005. Because climate change is a global problem, i.e. it does not matter where on the globe GHGs are emitted - they all end up in the same atmosphere, many market economists maintain that mitigation should first occur wherever it is cheapest. Thus Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol makes provisions by which whose signatories who are required to limit emissions can gain credit for financing cost-effective mitigation projects in developing countries, while at the same time promoting sustainable development through the provision of financial and technical assistance. This option is known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM could be of particular interest to developing countries, which are not subject to emission limitations in the Kyoto Protocol. For example, the use of capital-intensive nuclear power instead of less costly coal-fired electricity generation would result in a significant reduction in GHG emissions. Because many developing countries may not be able to afford the higher investments associated with a nuclear power project, or because nuclear may simply not be the least-cost generation option for a given country, CDM offers an opportunity for (incremental) capital and technology transfer sponsored by countries of the CoP 3 in exchange for GHG emission credits. The benefit to the sponsor would be compliance with the emission limits set out in the Protocol, at a lower cost than if

  16. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  17. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  18. The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novacek, M J; Cleland, E E

    2001-05-08

    The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

  19. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  20. Assessment of alternative mitigation concepts for Hanford flammable gas tanks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, C.W.; Schienbein, L.A.; Hudson, J.D.; Eschbach, E.J.; Lessor, D.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report provides a review and assessment of four selected mitigation concepts: pump jet mixing, sonic vibration, dilution, and heating. Though the relative levels of development of these concepts are quite different, some definite conclusions are made on their comparative feasibility. Key findings of this report are as follows. A mixer pump has proven to be a safe and effective active mitigation method in Tank 241-SY-101, and the authors are confident that mixer pumps will effectively mitigate other tanks with comparable waste configurations and properties. Low-frequency sonic vibration is also predicted to be effective for mitigation. Existing data cannot prove that dilution can mitigate gas release event (GRE) behavior. However, dilution is the only concept of the four that potentially offers passive mitigation. Like dilution, heating the waste cannot be proven with available information to mitigate GRE behavior. The designs, analyses, and data from which these conclusions are derived are presented along with recommendations.

  1. Assessment of alternative mitigation concepts for Hanford flammable gas tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, C.W.; Schienbein, L.A.; Hudson, J.D.; Eschbach, E.J.; Lessor, D.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report provides a review and assessment of four selected mitigation concepts: pump jet mixing, sonic vibration, dilution, and heating. Though the relative levels of development of these concepts are quite different, some definite conclusions are made on their comparative feasibility. Key findings of this report are as follows. A mixer pump has proven to be a safe and effective active mitigation method in Tank 241-SY-101, and the authors are confident that mixer pumps will effectively mitigate other tanks with comparable waste configurations and properties. Low-frequency sonic vibration is also predicted to be effective for mitigation. Existing data cannot prove that dilution can mitigate gas release event (GRE) behavior. However, dilution is the only concept of the four that potentially offers passive mitigation. Like dilution, heating the waste cannot be proven with available information to mitigate GRE behavior. The designs, analyses, and data from which these conclusions are derived are presented along with recommendations

  2. Greenhouse gas mitigation in animal production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Boer, IJM; Cederberg, C; Eady, S

    2011-01-01

    The animal food chain contributes significantly to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We explored studies that addressed options to mitigate GHG emissions in the animal production chain and concluded that most studies focused on production systems in developed countries and on a single GHG...

  3. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  4. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  6. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  7. Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

  8. Fuel Flexibility: Landfill Gas Contaminant Mitigation for Power Generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storey, John Morse [ORNL; Theiss, Timothy J [ORNL; Kass, Michael D [ORNL; FINNEY, Charles E A [ORNL; Lewis, Samuel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Kaul, Brian C [ORNL; Besmann, Theodore M [ORNL; Thomas, John F [ORNL; Rogers, Hiram [ORNL; Sepaniak, Michael [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-04-01

    This research project focused on the mitigation of silica damage to engine-based renewable landfill gas energy systems. Characterization of the landfill gas siloxane contamination, combined with characterization of the silica deposits in engines, led to development of two new mitigation strategies. The first involved a novel method for removing the siloxanes and other heavy contaminants from the landfill gas prior to use by the engines. The second strategy sought to interrupt the formation of hard silica deposits in the engine itself, based on inspection of failed landfill gas engine parts. In addition to mitigation, the project had a third task to develop a robust sensor for siloxanes that could be used to control existing and/or future removal processes.

  9. International workshop on greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and measures: Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    More than 150 countries are now Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the global climate system. Climate change country studies are a significant step for developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet their national reporting commitments to the FCCC. These studies also provide the basis for preparation of National Climate Change Action Plans and implementation of technologies and practices which reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sinks. The broad goals of the workshop were to: (1) present results of country study mitigation assessments, (2) identify promising no-regrets greenhouse gas mitigation options in land-use and energy sectors, (3) share information on development of mitigation technologies and measures which contribute to improved National Climate Change Actions Plans, and (4) begin the process of synthesizing mitigation assessments for use by FCCC subsidiary bodies. The 59 papers are arranged into the following topical sections: (1) national mitigation assessments, technology priorities, and measures; (2) sector-specific mitigation assessment results, subdivided further into: energy sector; non-energy sector; renewable energy; energy efficiency in industry and buildings; transportation; electricity supply; forestry; and methane mitigation; (3) support for mitigation technologies and measures; and (4) activities implemented jointly. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  10. Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

    2010-05-01

    Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

  11. Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Jane M.-F.; Franzluebbers, Alan J.; Weyers, Sharon Lachnicht; Reicosky, Donald C.

    2007-01-01

    Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O. It can also be a sink for CO 2 through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH 4 consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N 2 O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint. - Management options can be used to reduce agriculture's environmental impacts

  12. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  13. Sectoral Approaches to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This paper explores sectoral approaches as a new set of options to enhance the effectiveness of greenhouse gas reduction policies and to engage emerging economies on a lower emission path. It surveys existing literature and recent policy trends in international climate change discussions, and provides an overview of sectoral approaches and related issues for trade-exposed, greenhouse-gas intensive industries (cement, iron and steel and aluminium). It is also based on interviews conducted by the IEA Secretariat in Australia, China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. Sectoral approaches were also discussed during workshops on technology and energy efficiency policies in industry, following the IEA's mandate under the Gleneagles Plan of Action.

  14. Global initiatives to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helme, N.; Gille, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    Joint implementation (JI) is a provision, included in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, that allows for two or more nations to jointly plan and implement a greenhouse gas or offsetting project. Joint implementation is important environmentally for two principal reasons: (1) it provides an opportunity to select projects on a global basis that maximize both greenhouse gas reduction benefits and other environmental benefits such as air pollution reduction while minimizing cost, and (2) it creates incentives for developing countries as well as multinational companies to begin to evaluate potential investments through a climate-friendly lens. While the debate on how to establish the criteria and institutional capacity necessary to encourage joint implementation projects continues in the international community, the US government is creating new incentives for US companies to develop joint implementation pilot projects now. While delegates to the United Nations' International Negotiating Committee (INC) debate whether to permit all Parties to the convention to participate in JI, opportunities in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet states abound. The US has taken a leadership role in joint implementation, establishing two complementary domestic programs that allow US companies to measure, track and score their net greenhouse gas reduction achievements now. With a financial investment by three US utilities, the Center for Clean Air Policy is developing a fuel-switching and energy efficiency project in the city of Decin in the Czech Republic which offers a concrete example of what a real-world JI project could look like. The Decin project provides an ideal test case for assessing the adequacy and potential impact of the draft criteria for the US Initiative on Joint Implementation, as well as for the draft criteria prepared by the INC Secretariat

  15. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  16. Smart gas sensors for mitigating environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azad, A.M.

    1997-01-01

    From the viewpoint of industrial and automobile exhaust pollution control sensors capable of detecting and metering the concentration of harmful gasers such as carbon monoxide, hydrogen, hydrocarbons, NO sub x, SO sub x, etc, in the ambient are desired. Solid state gas sensors based on semiconducting metal oxides have been widely used for the detection and metering of a host of reducing gases, albeit with varying degrees of success. In this presentation, development aspects of new solid-state CO and H2 sensors are described. Benevolent effect of second phases and catalyst on the sensing characteristics, and the possible sensing mechanism are discussed. In the case of titania-based CO sensors, test results in a Ford V6 engine under programmed near-stoichiometric combustion conditions are also presented. Some new concepts in the area of reliable metering of humidity (water content) in the ambient are briefly highlighted. (author)

  17. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  18. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

  19. Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

  20. Rough surface mitigates electron and gas emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molvik, A.

    2004-01-01

    Heavy-ion beams impinging on surfaces near grazing incidence (to simulate the loss of halo ions) generate copious amounts of electrons and gas that can degrade the beam. We measured emission coefficients of η e (le) 130 and η 0 ∼ 10 4 respectively, with 1 MeV K + incident on stainless steel. Electron emission scales as η e ∝ 1/cos(θ), where θ is the ion angle of incidence relative to normal. If we were to roughen a surface by blasting it with glass beads, then ions that were near grazing incidence (90 o ) on smooth surface would strike the rims of the micro-craters at angles closer to normal incidence. This should reduce the electron emission: the factor of 10 reduction, Fig. 1(a), implies an average angle of incidence of 62 o . Gas desorption varies more slowly with θ (Fig. 1(b)) decreasing a factor of ∼2, and along with the electron emission is independent of the angle of incidence on a rough surface. In a quadrupole magnet, electrons emitted by lost primary ions are trapped near the wall by the magnetic field, but grazing incidence ions can backscatter and strike the wall a second time at an azimuth where magnetic field lines intercept the beam. Then, electrons can exist throughout the beam (see the simulations of Cohen, HIF News 1-2/04). The SRIM (TRIM) Monte Carlo code predicts that 60-70% of 1 MeV K + ions backscatter when incident at 88-89 o from normal on a smooth surface. The scattered ions are mostly within ∼10 o of the initial direction but a few scatter by up to 90 o . Ion scattering decreases rapidly away from grazing incidence, Fig. 1(c ). At 62 deg. the predicted ion backscattering (from a rough surface) is 3%, down a factor of 20 from the peak, which should significantly reduce electrons in the beam from lost halo ions. These results are published in Phys. Rev. ST - Accelerators and Beams

  1. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions: Voluntary reporting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-01

    The Voluntary Reporting Program, developed pursuant to Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, permits corporations, government agencies, households, and voluntary organizations to report on their emissions of greenhouse gases, and on actions taken that have reduced or avoided emissions or sequestered carbon, to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This, the second annual report of the Voluntary Reporting Program, describes information provided by the participating organizations on their aggregate emissions and emissions reductions, as well as their emissions reduction or avoidance projects, through 1995. This information has been compiled into a database that includes reports from 142 organizations and descriptions of 967 projects that either reduced greenhouse gas emissions or sequestered carbon. Fifty-one reporters also provided estimates of emissions, and emissions reductions achieved, for their entire organizations. The projects described actions taken to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from energy production and use; to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from energy use, waste management, and agricultural processes; to reduce emissions of halocarbons, such as CFCs and their replacements; and to increase carbon sequestration.

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  3. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  4. MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

  5. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  6. Gas jet disruption mitigation studies on Alcator C-Mod

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granetz, R.; Whyte, D.G.; Izzo, V.A.; Biewer, T.; Reinke, M.L.; Terry, J.; Bader, A.; Bakhtiari, M.; Jernigan, T.; Wurden, G.

    2006-01-01

    Damaging effects of disruptions are a major concern for Alcator C-Mod, ITER and future tokamak reactors. High-pressure noble gas jet injection is a mitigation technique which potentially satisfies the operational requirements of fast response time and reliability, while still being benign to subsequent discharges. Disruption mitigation experiments using an optimized gas jet injection system are being carried out on Alcator C-Mod to study the physics of gas jet penetration into high pressure plasmas, as well as the ability of the gas jet impurities to convert plasma energy into radiation on timescales consistent with C-Mod's fast quench times, and to reduce halo currents given C-Mod's high-current density. The dependence of impurity penetration and effectiveness on noble gas species (He, Ne, Ar, Kr) is also being studied. It is found that the high-pressure neutral gas jet does not penetrate deeply into the C-Mod plasma, and yet prompt core thermal quenches are observed on all gas jet shots. 3D MHD modelling of the disruption physics with NIMROD shows that edge cooling of the plasma triggers fast growing tearing modes which rapidly produce a stochastic region in the core of the plasma and loss of thermal energy. This may explain the apparent effectiveness of the gas jet in C-Mod despite its limited penetration. The higher-Z gases (Ne, Ar, Kr) also proved effective at reducing halo currents and decreasing thermal deposition to the divertor surfaces. In addition, noble gas jet injection proved to be benign for plasma operation with C-Mod's metal (Mo) wall, actually improving the reliability of the startup in the following discharge

  7. Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

    2013-01-01

    Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

  8. Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

  9. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  10. The Role of Bioenergy in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spitzer, J.

    1998-01-01

    Biomass can play a dual role in greenhouse gas mitigation related to the objectives of the UNFCCC, i.e. as an energy source to substitute fossil fuels and as a carbon store. However, compared to the maintenance and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs, it appears that the use of bioenergy has so far received less attenuation as a means of mitigating climate change. Modern bioenergy options offer significant, cost-effective and perpetual opportunities toward meeting emission reduction targets while providing additional ancillary benefits. Moreover, via the sustainable use of the accumulated carbon, bioenergy has the potential for resolving some of the critical issues surrounding long-term maintenance of biotic carbon stocks. < finally, wood products can act as substitutes for more energy-intensive products, can constitute carbon sinks, and can be used as biofuels at the end of their lifetime. (author)

  11. Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze contiguous U.S. hydropower generation under various emissions scenarios. • Employ systems model that allocates water to competing uses in 2119 river basins. • Average U.S. generation increases under climate change, but falls under low flows. • Mitigation benefits are $2-$4 billion/year due to high values of carbon-free energy. - Abstract: Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and climate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydropower. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas

  12. New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Qiang [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China); Shi, Minjun [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Jiang, Kejun [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies. (author)

  13. New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qiang, Liu [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)], E-mail: liuqiang@eri.org.cn; Minjun, Shi [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Kejun, Jiang [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.

  14. Progress toward mitigation of flammable gas Tank 241-SY-101

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentsch, J.W.; Babad, H.; Hanson, C.E.; Kirch, N.W.

    1994-01-01

    The mixing pump installed in Hanford Site tank 241-SY-101 has been shown to be effective in releasing flammable gases in a controlled manner. This controlled release of gas prevents the accumulation and episodic release above flammable limits. More work needs to be done to optimize the pumping operation, and to evaluate the long-term effects of mixing so as to assure that no undesirable changes have occurred to the waste. Other alternative mitigation concepts are still being evaluated as a backup to mixing

  15. Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Mario; Henderson, Benjamin; Havlík, Petr; Thornton, Philip K.; Conant, Richard T.; Smith, Pete; Wirsenius, Stefan; Hristov, Alexander N.; Gerber, Pierre; Gill, Margaret; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Valin, Hugo; Garnett, Tara; Stehfest, Elke

    2016-05-01

    The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40-50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6-7.5 GtCO2e yr-1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment.

  16. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

  17. Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

    2000-01-01

    Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

  18. Policy and tecnological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smith, P

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we...

  19. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Aleluia Reis, Lara; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David

    2016-01-01

    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2êC) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GD...

  20. Rice management interventions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Saddam; Peng, Shaobing; Fahad, Shah; Khaliq, Abdul; Huang, Jianliang; Cui, Kehui; Nie, Lixiao

    2015-03-01

    Global warming is one of the gravest threats to crop production and environmental sustainability. Rice, the staple food of more than half of the world's population, is the most prominent cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture and gives way to global warming. The increasing demand for rice in the future has deployed tremendous concerns to reduce GHG emissions for minimizing the negative environmental impacts of rice cultivation. In this review, we presented a contemporary synthesis of existing data on how crop management practices influence emissions of GHGs in rice fields. We realized that modifications in traditional crop management regimes possess a huge potential to overcome GHG emissions. We examined and evaluated the different possible options and found that modifying tillage permutations and irrigation patterns, managing organic and fertilizer inputs, selecting suitable cultivar, and cropping regime can mitigate GHG emissions. Previously, many authors have discussed the feasibility principle and the influence of these practices on a single gas or, in particular, in the whole agricultural sector. Nonetheless, changes in management practices may influence more than one gas at the same time by different mechanisms or sometimes their effects may be antagonistic. Therefore, in the present attempt, we estimated the overall global warming potential of each approach to consider the magnitude of its effects on all gases and provided a comprehensive assessment of suitable crop management practices for reducing GHG emissions in rice culture.

  1. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  2. Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

  3. U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Martin T.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Clapp, Christa S.

    2009-01-01

    The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.

  4. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  5. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valin, H; Havlík, P; Mosnier, A; Obersteiner, M; Herrero, M; Schmid, E

    2013-01-01

    In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. Our results confirm that yield increase could mitigate some agriculture-related emissions growth over the next decades. Closing yield gaps by 50% for crops and 25% for livestock by 2050 would decrease agriculture and land use change emissions by 8% overall, and by 12% per calorie produced. However, the outcome is sensitive to the technological path and which factor benefits from productivity gains: sustainable land intensification would increase GHG savings by one-third when compared with a fertilizer intensive pathway. Reaching higher yield through total factor productivity gains would be more efficient on the food supply side but halve emissions savings due to a strong rebound effect on the demand side. Improvement in the crop or livestock sector would have different implications: crop yield increase would bring the largest food provision benefits, whereas livestock productivity gains would allow the greatest reductions in GHG emission. Combining productivity increases in the two sectors appears to be the most efficient way to exploit mitigation and food security co-benefits. (letter)

  6. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  7. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thepkhun, Panida; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Shrestha, Ram M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and CO 2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  8. Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazioli, R.; Ricci, A.; Valentini, A.; Baratta, R.; Battaglia, A.; Conticelli, M.; Antonioli, B.; Beccarello, M.

    2000-01-01

    Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption [it

  9. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoang Minh Giang

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Current household solid waste treatment practices in most cities in Vietnam caused a great amount of direct greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Available solid waste treatment technologies should be seriously taken  into consideration as a wedge of GHG mitigation in waste sector base on presently Vietnamese economic conditions. This study aim to evaluate the potential amount of GHG mitigation from current domestic solid waste treatment technologies in Vietnam including landfills and composting from various management scenarios. In oder to use Tier 2 model of IPCC 2006 for GHG estimation from landfills, an analysis on current household solid waste management system of the city was obtained by using material flow analysis approach. A case study in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam was carried out in this research. As a result, there was a reduced of over 70% of the amount of CH4 emissions and  up to 53% of total GHG saving (CO2-eq from avoiding organic waste to landfill. In addition, applying an energy recovery from LFG system to available landfills would lead to aproximately 75% of GHG saved compare to current emission of waste sector.Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16Citation: Giang, H.M.,Luong, N.D., and Huong, L.T.M.2013. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation of available household solid waste treatment technologies. . Waste Technology 1(1:6-9. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12777/wastech.1.1.10-16

  10. Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

    2012-03-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

  11. Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

  12. Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using

  13. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the production of fluid milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasula, Peggy M; Nutter, Darin W

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change, driven by the buildup of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, is challenging the dairy industries in the United States and throughout the world to develop sustainable initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. The U.S. dairy industry has committed to lowering the GHG emissions, primarily CH(4), N(2)O, and CO(2), in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain which extends from the farm, to the processing plant, and to distribution of the packaged product, where it is refrigerated by the retailer and then the consumer. This chapter provides an overview of the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique and its use in identifying the GHG emissions in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain, from cradle to grave, and the best practices and research that is currently being conducted to reduce or mitigate GHG emissions in each sector. We also discuss the use of on-farm and off-farm process simulation as tools for evaluating on-farm mitigation techniques, off-farm alternative processing scenarios, and use of alternative energy management practices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

  15. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Amit; Bhattacharya, S.C.; Pham, H.L.

    2003-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials of number of selected Biomass Energy Technologies (BETs) have been assessed in Vietnam. These include Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) based on wood and bagasse, direct combustion plants based on wood, co-firing power plants and Stirling engine based on wood and cooking stoves. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, different scenarios were considered, namely the base case with no mitigation options, replacement of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by biogas stove, substitution of gasoline by ethanol in transport sector, replacement of coal by wood as fuel in industrial boilers, electricity generation with biomass energy technologies and an integrated scenario including all the options together. Substitution of coal stoves by biogas stove has positive abatement cost, as the cost of wood in Vietnam is higher than coal. Replacement of kerosene and LPG cookstoves by biomass stove also has a positive abatement cost. Replacement of gasoline by ethanol can be realized after a few years, as at present the cost of ethanol is more than the cost of gasoline. The replacement of coal by biomass in industrial boiler is also not an attractive option as wood is more expensive than coal in Vietnam. The substitution of fossil fuel fired plants by packages of BETs has a negative abatement cost. This option, if implemented, would result in mitigation of 10.83 million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in 2010

  16. Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Gasol, Carles M.; Oliver-Solà, Jordi; Huelin, Sagrario; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2013-01-01

    The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions. - Highlights: • Three model stretches, representative of Spanish motorway conditions, were evaluated. • Three environmental improvement scenarios were proposed. • Speed limit seemed the easiest measure to implement in a near future. • Afforestation showed limited effectiveness per unit of land surface. • A drastic technological improvement is required to obtain significant reductions

  17. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

  18. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and non-CO 2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO 2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH 4 ) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO 2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO 2 and CH 4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO 2 -equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO 2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas

  19. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  20. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and marine transportation : mitigation potential and policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides an overview of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions : from aviation and marine transportation and the various mitigation options to reduce these emissions. Reducing global emissions by 50 to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050reduct...

  2. Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

  3. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  4. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  5. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  6. Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comendant I.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

  7. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  8. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  9. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  10. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Smith, Steven J.; West, J. Jason

    2016-08-01

    Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m-3) than the west (0–0.4 µg m-3) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with an average of 0.47 µg m-3 over the US; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O3 reduction

  11. EMF 9 scenarios Canadian natural gas: Potential demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    The basic analytical perspectives of this work are: (1) Canada is a price taker on the US natural gas market; (2) Gas competes with HFO in both markets, and Canada is integrated into the international oil market; (3) Canadian and US income growth rates are consistent with each other, given the major influence of US economic performance on that of the Canadian economy; and (4) Given the price, income and other assumptions, we used the Board's Energy Demand Model to calculate annual demand for natural gas in each price case. We used the Board's models for reserves additions and productive capacity estimation to calculate potential annual supply. The difference between demand and potential supply is the potential exportable volume. The annual productive capacity curve assumes, agnostically, that all potential production is sold yearly

  12. Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hong-Mei; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Liu, Li-Jing; Diaz Anadon, Laura

    2017-12-01

    The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy security, technological spillovers and innovation, and food security. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity

  13. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Database and Tool - Data repository of GHG mitigation technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Industry and electricity production facilities generate over 50 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. There is a growing consensus among scientists that the primary cause of climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emi...

  14. Eco-efficiency for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation of municipal solid waste management: a case study of Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Huppes, Gjalt; van der Voet, Ester

    2011-06-01

    The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been highlighted in China due to the continually increasing MSW volumes being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. This article presents a quantitative eco-efficiency (E/E) analysis on MSW management in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. A methodology for E/E analysis has been proposed, with an emphasis on the consistent integration of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). The environmental and economic impacts derived from LCA and LCC have been normalized and defined as a quantitative E/E indicator. The proposed method was applied in a case study of Tianjin, China. The study assessed the current MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, to investigate trade-offs between economy and GHG emissions mitigation. Additionally, contribution analysis was conducted on both LCA and LCC to identify key issues driving environmental and economic impacts. The results show that the current Tianjin's MSW management system emits the highest GHG and costs the least, whereas the situation reverses in the integrated scenario. The key issues identified by the contribution analysis show no linear relationship between the global warming impact and the cost impact in MSW management system. The landfill gas utilization scenario is indicated as a potential optimum scenario by the proposed E/E analysis, given the characteristics of MSW, technology levels, and chosen methodologies. The E/E analysis provides an attractive direction towards sustainable waste management, though some questions with respect to uncertainty need to be discussed further. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. USDA Northeast climate hub greenhouse gas mitigation workshop technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    In April 2015, USDA Secretary Vilsack announced the Greenhouse Gas Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase carbon sequestration, and expand renewable energy production in the agricultural and forestry sectors. This initiati...

  16. The indirect costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect costs of GHG projects are very important in the evaluation of such projects. In many cases they are more important than the direct costs. This paper has shown what such costs consist of and how they may be estimated. As countries prepare their mitigation strategies, it is very important that they develop tools for the assessment of these indirect costs and use these tools in the appropriate manner. Hopefully, this paper will point them in the right direction. (au) 11 refs

  17. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-02-01

    Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

  18. Asia least-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategy identification and assessment of mitigation options for the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Sujata; Bhandari, Preety

    1998-01-01

    The focus of the presentation was on greenhouse gas mitigation options for the energy sector for India. Results from the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse gas Abatement Strategies (ALGAS) project were presented. The presentation comprised of a review of the sources of greenhouse gases, the optimisation model, ie the Markal model, used for determining the least-cost options, discussion of the results from the baseline and the abatement scenarios. The second half of the presentation focussed on a multi-criteria assessment of the abatement options using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model. The emissions of all greenhouse gases, for India, are estimated to be 986.3 Tg of carbon dioxide equivalent for 1990. The energy sector accounted for 58 percent of the total emissions and over 90 percent of the CO2 emissions. Net emissions form land use change and forestry were zero. (au)

  19. Disruption mitigation with high-pressure helium gas injection on EAST tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, D. L.; Shen, B.; Granetz, R. S.; Qian, J. P.; Zhuang, H. D.; Zeng, L.; Duan, Y.; Shi, T.; Wang, H.; Sun, Y.; Xiao, B. J.

    2018-03-01

    High pressure noble gas injection is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of disruptions in tokamaks. In this paper, results of mitigation experiments with low-Z massive gas injection (helium) on the EAST tokamak are reported. A fast valve has been developed and successfully implemented on EAST, with valve response time  ⩽150 μs, capable of injecting up to 7 × 1022 particles, corresponding to 300 times the plasma inventory. Different amounts of helium gas were injected into stable plasmas in the preliminary experiments. It is seen that a small amount of helium gas (N_He≃ N_plasma ) can not terminate a discharge, but can trigger MHD activity. Injection of 40 times the plasma inventory impurity (N_He≃ 40× N_plasma ) can effectively radiate away part of the thermal energy and make the electron density increase rapidly. The mitigation result is that the current quench time and vertical displacement can both be reduced significantly, without resulting in significantly higher loop voltage. This also reduces the risk of runaway electron generation. As the amount of injected impurity gas increases, the gas penetration time decreases slowly and asymptotes to (˜7 ms). In addition, the impurity gas jet has also been injected into VDEs, which are more challenging to mitigate that stable plasmas.

  20. The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoudpour, Hamid; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

    2006-01-01

    Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO 2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO 2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

  1. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  2. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Benefits on public health from transport-related greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Southeastern European cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigiannis, D A; Kontoroupis, P; Nikolaki, S; Gotti, A; Chapizanis, D; Karakitsios, S

    2017-02-01

    Climate change is a major environmental threat of our time. Cities have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions as most of the traffic, industry, commerce and more than 50% of world population is situated in urban areas. Southern Europe is a region that faces financial turmoil, enhanced migratory fluxes and climate change pressure. The case study of Thessaloniki is presented, one of the only two cities in Greece with established climate change action plans. The effects of feasible traffic policies in year 2020 are assessed and their potential health impact is compared to a business as usual scenario. Two types of measures are investigated: operation of underground rail in the city centre and changes in fleet composition. Potential co-benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions on public health by the year 2020 are computed utilizing state-of-the-art concentration response functions for PM x , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 . Results show significant environmental health and monetary co-benefits when the city metro is coupled with appropriate changes in the traffic composition. Monetary savings due to avoided mortality or leukaemia incidence corresponding to the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5, NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure will be 56.6, 45, 37.7 and 1.0 million Euros respectively. Promotion of 'green' transportation in the city (i.e. the wide use of electric vehicles), will provide monetary savings from the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure up to 60.4, 49.1, 41.2 and 1.08 million Euros. Overall, it was shown that the respective GHG emission reduction policies resulted in clear co-benefits in terms of air quality improvement, public health protection and monetary loss mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry: Assessment, conclusions, and recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkey, P.L.; Sundell, R.C.; Bailey, K.A.; Hayes, D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Wetland mitigation banks are already in existence in the United States, and the number is increasing. To date, most of these banks have been created and operated for mitigation of impacts arising from highway or commercial development and have not been associated with the oil and gas industry. Argonne National Laboratory evaluated the positive and negative aspects of wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry by examining banks already created for other uses by federal, state, and private entities. Specific issues addressed in this study include (1) the economic, ecological, and technical effectiveness of existing banks; (2) the changing nature of local, state, and federal jurisdiction; and (3) the unique regulatory and jurisdictional problems affecting bank developments associated with the oil and gas industry.

  5. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  6. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

    2010-12-16

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  7. Mitigating gas emissions at signalised intersections using wireless vehicle detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses Kwasi Torkudzor

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Traffic congestion on roads wastes travel times and increases fuel consumption as well as gas emissions which are dangerous to human health. This has led to growing concern about environmental protection and energy conservation and a number of studies to increase fuel economy and reduce gas emissions. To increase travel times so as to reduce fuel consumption and gas emissions, traffic signals at intersections must be well implemented. It is therefore necessary to employ the current technology of wireless sensor networks to enhance the optimisation of the signalised intersections so as to address such a concern. In this study, a vehicular traffic control model was developed to optimise a signalised intersection, using wireless vehicle detectors. Real-time traffic volume gathered were analysed to obtain the peak hour traffic volume causing congestion. The intersection was modelled and simulated in Synchro7 as an actuated signalised model using results from the analysed data. The model for morning peak and evening peak periods gave optimal cycle lengths which result in the reduction of gas emissions, fuel consumption and delay at the intersection.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Beijing: The rising trend and the mitigation effects by management improvements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Wen

    2016-04-01

    Disposal of solid waste poses great challenges to city managements. Changes in solid waste composition and disposal methods, along with urbanisation, can certainly affect greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste. In this study, we analysed the changes in the generation, composition and management of municipal solid waste in Beijing. The changes of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management were thereafter calculated. The impacts of municipal solid waste management improvements on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation effects of treatment techniques of greenhouse gas were also analysed. Municipal solid waste generation in Beijing has increased, and food waste has constituted the most substantial component of municipal solid waste over the past decade. Since the first half of 1950s, greenhouse gas emission has increased from 6 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)to approximately 200 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in the early 1990s and 2145 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in 2013. Landfill gas flaring, landfill gas utilisation and energy recovery in incineration are three techniques of the after-emission treatments in municipal solid waste management. The scenario analysis showed that three techniques might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7%, 4.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In the future, if waste disposal can achieve a ratio of 4:3:3 by landfill, composting and incineration with the proposed after-emission treatments, as stipulated by the Beijing Municipal Waste Management Act, greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste will decrease by 41%. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; West, J. Jason

    2017-11-01

    Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

  10. Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J.; Schroten, A.; Bles, M.; Sevenster, M.; Markowska, A.; Smit, M. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Rohde, C.; Duetschke, E.; Koehler, J.; Gigli, M. [Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (Germany); Zimmermann, K.; Soboh, R.; Van ' t Riet, J. [Landbouw Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    Changes in consumer behaviour can lead to major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union, particularly in the areas of transport, housing and food. Behavioural changes can complement technological changes and can allow emission reduction targets to be achieved more cost-effectively overall. The study identifies 36 options for behavioural change that would cut greenhouse gas emissions. Of these, 11 particularly relevant options have been studied in detail. They include shifting to a more healthy and balanced diet, eating less meat and dairy products, buying and using a smaller car or an electric car, teleworking, adjusting room temperature and optimising ventilation. For each of the behavioural changes studied in depth, emission reduction potentials have been quantified for 2020, 2030 and 2050. The study identifies barriers to implementing the changes, and quantifies the likely effects of policy packages which could overcome these barriers. The results show that the behavioural changes that could take place simultaneously have the potential to save emissions totalling up to about 600 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent a year in 2020. This is about one-quarter of the projected annual emissions from sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading system. The savings potential is particularly high in the area of food.

  11. Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

    2013-04-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

  12. Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hinti, I.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Akash, B.; Abu-Nada, E.

    2007-01-01

    The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO 2 emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007-2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO 2 emissions

  13. Gas jet disruption mitigation studies on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granetz, R.S.; Hollmann, E.M.; Whyte, D.G.; Izzo, V.A.; Antar, G.Y.; Bader, A.; Bakhtiari, M.; Biewer, T.; Boedo, J.A.; Evans, T.E.; Hutchinson, I.H.; Jernigan, T.C.; Gray, D.S.; Groth, M.; Humphreys, D.A.; Lasnier, C.J.; Moyer, R.A.; Parks, P.B.; Reinke, M.L.; Rudakov, D.L.; Strait, E.J.; Terry, J.L.; Wesley, J.; West, W.P.; Wurden, G.; Yu, J.

    2007-01-01

    High-pressure noble gas jet injection is a mitigation technique which potentially satisfies the requirements of fast response time and reliability, without degrading subsequent discharges. Previously reported gas jet experiments on DIII-D showed good success at reducing deleterious disruption effects. In this paper, results of recent gas jet disruption mitigation experiments on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D are reported. Jointly, these experiments have greatly improved the understanding of gas jet dynamics and the processes involved in mitigating disruption effects. In both machines, the sequence of events following gas injection is observed to be quite similar: the jet neutrals stop near the plasma edge, the edge temperature collapses and large MHD modes are quickly destabilized, mixing the hot plasma core with the edge impurity ions and radiating away the plasma thermal energy. High radiated power fractions are achieved, thus reducing the conducted heat loads to the chamber walls and divertor. A significant (2 x or more) reduction in halo current is also observed. Runaway electron generation is small or absent. These similar results in two quite different tokamaks are encouraging for the applicability of this disruption mitigation technique to ITER

  14. Nordic regionalisation of a greenhouse-gas stabilisation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyser, Klaus; Rummukainen, Markku; Strandberg, Gustav

    2006-10-15

    The impact of a CO{sub 2} stabilisation on the Swedish climate is investigated with the regional climate model RCA3 driven by boundary conditions obtained from a global coupled climate system model (CCSM3). The global model has been forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations from pre-industrial conditions until today's, and with an idealised further increase until the stabilisation level is reached. After stabilisation the model integration continues for another 150+ years in order to follow the delayed response of the climate system over a period of time. Results from the global and regional climate model are compared against observations and ECMWF reanalysis for 1961-1990. For this period, the global model is found to be too cold over Europe and with a zonal flow from the North Atlantic towards Europe that is too strong. The climate of the driving global model controls the climate of the regional model and the same deviations from one are thus inherited by the other. We therefore analyse the relative climate changes differences, or ratios, of climate variables between future's and today's climate. Compared to pre-industrial conditions, the global mean temperature changes by about 1.5 deg C as a result of the stabilisation at 450 ppmv equivalent CO{sub 2}. Averaged over Europe, the temperature change is slightly larger, and it is even larger for Sweden and Northern Europe. Annual mean precipitation for Europe is unaffected, but Sweden receives more precipitation under higher CO{sub 2} levels. The inter-annual and decadal variability of annual mean temperature and precipitation does not change with any significant degree. The changes in temperature and precipitation are not evenly distributed with the season: the largest warming and increased precipitation in Northern Europe occurs during winter months while the summer climate remains more or less unchanged. The opposite is true for the Mediterranean region where the precipitation decreases

  15. An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Y.L.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.F.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

  16. Utilization and mitigation of VAM/CMM emissions by a catalytic combustion gas turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, K.; Yoshino, Y.; Kashihara, H. [Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., Hyougo (Japan); Kajita, S.

    2013-07-01

    A system configured with a catalytic combustion gas turbine generator unit is introduced. The system has been developed using technologies produced by Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., such as small gas turbines, recuperators and catalytic combustors, and catalytic oxidation units which use exhaust heat from gas turbines. The system combusts (oxidizes) ventilation air methane (less than 1% concentration) and low concentration coal mine methane (30% concentration or less) discharged as waste from coal mines. Thus, it cannot only reduce the consumption of high- quality fuel for power generation, but also mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilliestam, Johan

    2014-01-01

    The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets. - Highlights: • A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation. • Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks. • Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports. • Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker. • The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low

  18. Real-time sensing and gas jet mitigation of VDEs on Alcator C-Mod

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granetz, R. S.; Wolfe, S. M.; Izzo, V. A.; Reinke, M. L.; Terry, J. L.; Hughes, J. W.; Zhurovich, K.; Whyte, D. G.; Bakhtiari, M.; Wurden, G.

    2006-10-01

    Experiments have been carried out in Alcator C-Mod to test the effectiveness of gas jet disruption mitigation of VDEs with real-time detection and triggering by the C-Mod digital plasma control system (DPCS). The DPCS continuously computes the error in the plasma vertical position from the magnetics diagnostics. When this error exceeds an adjustable preset value, the DPCS triggers the gas jet valve (with a negligible latency time). The high-pressure gas (argon) only takes a few milliseconds to enter the vacuum chamber and begin affecting the plasma, but this is comparable to the VDE timescale on C-Mod. Nevertheless, gas jet injection reduced the halo current, increased the radiated power fraction, and reduced the heating of the divertor compared to unmitigated disruptions, but not quite as well as in earlier mitigation experiments with vertically stable plasmas. Presumably a faster overall response time would be beneficial, and several ways to achieve this will also be discussed.

  19. A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

    2018-01-01

    In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

  20. Lessons learnt from a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation potential in the Balkans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgopoulou, E.; Mirasgedis, S.; Sarafidis, Y.; Gakis, N.; Hontou, V.; Lalas, D.P.; Steiner, D.; Tuerk, A.; Fruhmann, C.; Pucker, J.

    2015-01-01

    Balkan countries in the process of joining the European Union shall adopt greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and implement appropriate mitigation policies and measures. This paper presents a simplified methodological framework based on marginal abatement cost curves for estimating the technical and economic mitigation potential at sectoral level (buildings and road transport) in selected Balkan countries. The results of the analysis provide to decision makers useful information regarding the availability of background data, the potential for setting ambitious mitigation targets, and detailed tools for assisting the selection of policies and measures to meet these targets. The analysis performed shows that a significant part of the greenhouse gas emissions abatement potential can be achieved through win–win measures. The incorporation of environmental externalities associated with these interventions, estimated through benefits transfer, further improves the economic performance of these measures, especially in the buildings sector. Moreover, the implementation of these measures is shown to result in positive macroeconomic effects through increases in GDP (gross domestic product) and creation of new jobs. Finally, the rebound effect may restrict the estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions in the buildings of the countries examined due to the low energy performance of the existing building stock. - Highlights: • Analysis of the technical and economic GHG mitigation potential in western Balkans. • Marginal abatement cost curves highlight several win–win interventions. • Incorporation of environmental benefits improves the performance of measures. • Mitigation measures result in significant positive macroeconomic effects. • The investment costs and the rebound effect may influence measures' effectiveness.

  1. Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

    1996-07-01

    Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

  2. Microbial methane oxidation processes and technologies for mitigation of landfill gas emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter; Bogner, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Landfill gas containing methane is produced by anaerobic degradation of organic waste. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and landfills are one of the major anthropogenic sources of atmospheric methane. Landfill methane may be oxidized by methanotrophic microorganisms in soils or waste materials...... to predict methane emissions from landfills. Additional research and technology development is needed before methane mitigation technologies utilizing microbial methane oxidation processes can become commercially viable and widely deployed....

  3. Optimal scenario balance of reduction in costs and greenhouse gas emissions for municipal solid waste management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓娜; 张强; 陈广武; 齐长青; 崔文谦; 张于峰; 马洪亭

    2015-01-01

    To reduce carbon intensity, an improved management method balancing the reduction in costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required for Tianjin’s waste management system. Firstly, six objective functions, namely, cost minimization, GHG minimization, eco-efficiency minimization, cost maximization, GHG maximization and eco-efficiency maximization, are built and subjected to the same constraints with each objective function corresponding to one scenario. Secondly, GHG emissions and costs are derived from the waste flow of each scenario. Thirdly, the range of GHG emissions and costs of other potential scenarios are obtained and plotted through adjusting waste flow with infinitely possible step sizes according to the correlation among the above six scenarios. And the optimal scenario is determined based on this range. The results suggest the following conclusions. 1) The scenarios located on the border between scenario cost minimization and GHG minimization create an optimum curve, and scenario GHG minimization has the smallest eco-efficiency on the curve;2) Simple pursuit of eco-efficiency minimization using fractional programming may be unreasonable; 3) Balancing GHG emissions from incineration and landfills benefits Tianjin’s waste management system as it reduces GHG emissions and costs.

  4. The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we present a methodology for analyzing the economic benefits in the U.S. of changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We construct reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation i...

  5. Greenhouse gas mitigation using poultry litter management techniques in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mainali, Brijesh; Emran, Saad Been; Silveira, Semida

    2017-01-01

    Poultry activities have expanded significantly in Bangladesh in recent years. The litter generated from rural poultry farms is often dumped in low ground neighboring areas resulting in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as water and air pollution. This study estimates the GHG emissions of a typical rural layer poultry farm in Bangladesh, and identifies the GHG emissions reduction potential when poultry litter management techniques are used to produce biogas, generating electricity and bio-fertilizer. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) has been used for a systematic evaluation of GHG-emissions considering the local supply chain in a typical rural layer poultry farm. The analysis shows that the GHG-emissions at the poultry farm amount to 1735 KgCO_2_e_q/10000 eggs produced if the litter is untreated. With the installation of an anaerobic digester, the emission intensity could be reduced by 65% if the gas is used to replace LPG for cooking purposes. If 100% digested slurry is utilized as bio-fertilizer, the emissions intensity could be further reduced by 17 times compared to the case without slurry utilization. These results justify the consideration of national programs to improve conditions in poultry farms in Bangladesh. - Highlights: • This study estimates GHG-emissions reduction potential of utilizing poultry litter for energy production in a rural farm. • Energy/mass flow and GHG balances are evaluated considering the local supply chain. • On-farm activities significantly affect GHG emissions among others across the supply chain. • Biogas production and use of slurry as bio-fertilizer significantly reduces the emission intensity. • Results from LCA and sensitivity analysis have been discussed to identify key influential parameters.

  6. All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Philipp M.; Holz, Franziska

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states. - Highlights: • We analyze disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe. • Most EU countries are only weakly affected by a complete Russian supply disruption. • We find that Eastern Europe is vulnerable to Russian supply disruptions. • We identify infrastructure bottlenecks in the European natural gas network. • We find that the large EU LNG import capacity is not sufficiently connected

  7. Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puig, Daniel

    This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...

  8. Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribouillois, Hélène; Constantin, Julie; Justes, Eric

    2018-02-14

    Cover crops provide ecosystem services such as storing atmospheric carbon in soils after incorporation of their residues. Cover crops also influence soil water balance, which can be an issue in temperate climates with dry summers as for example in southern France and Europe. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand cover crops' long-term influence on greenhouse gases (GHG) and water balances to assess their potential to mitigate climate change in arable cropping systems. We used the previously calibrated and validated soil-crop model STICS to simulate scenarios of cover crop introduction to assess their influence on rainfed and irrigated cropping systems and crop rotations distributed among five contrasted sites in southern France from 2007 to 2052. Our results showed that cover crops can improve mean direct GHG balance by 315 kg CO 2 e ha -1  year -1 in the long term compared to that of bare soil. This was due mainly to an increase in carbon storage in the soil despite a slight increase in N 2 O emissions which can be compensated by adapting fertilization. Cover crops also influence the water balance by reducing mean annual drainage by 20 mm/year but increasing mean annual evapotranspiration by 20 mm/year compared to those of bare soil. Using cover crops to improve the GHG balance may help to mitigate climate change by decreasing CO 2 e emitted in cropping systems which can represent a decrease from 4.5% to 9% of annual GHG emissions of the French agriculture and forestry sector. However, if not well managed, they also could create water management issues in watersheds with shallow groundwater. Relationships between cover crop biomass and its influence on several variables such as drainage, carbon sequestration, and GHG emissions could be used to extend our results to other conditions to assess the cover crops' influence in a wider range of areas. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijermars, Ruud

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

  10. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  11. Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

    2006-06-01

    A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

  12. Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

  13. Scenarios of high greenhouse gas emission reduction in transports and buildings by 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teissier, O.; Meunier, L.

    2008-01-01

    The authors report simulations of different environmental policy measures concerning transports and buildings in France. First, they review measures which may entail a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and comment their emission reduction potential and their implementation costs. These measures are then ranked, and only those presenting a significant potential and an economically and technologically feasibility are finally considered. Their impact is then simulated by using different models which are adapted to the both sectors and to time ranges. The obtained results are compared to those obtained with a calibrated trend scenario and with a 'factor 4' scenario

  14. Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1988-01-01

    Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

  15. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  16. ¨ A Dilemma of Abundance: Governance Challenges of Reconciling Shale Gas Development and Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karena Shaw

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Shale gas proponents argue this unconventional fossil fuel offers a “bridge” towards a cleaner energy system by offsetting higher-carbon fuels such as coal. The technical feasibility of reconciling shale gas development with climate action remains contested. However, we here argue that governance challenges are both more pressing and more profound. Reconciling shale gas and climate action requires institutions capable of responding effectively to uncertainty; intervening to mandate emissions reductions and internalize costs to industry; and managing the energy system strategically towards a lower carbon future. Such policy measures prove challenging, particularly in jurisdictions that stand to benefit economically from unconventional fuels. We illustrate this dilemma through a case study of shale gas development in British Columbia, Canada, a global leader on climate policy that is nonetheless struggling to manage gas development for mitigation. The BC case is indicative of the constraints jurisdictions face both to reconcile gas development and climate action, and to manage the industry adequately to achieve social licence and minimize resistance. More broadly, the case attests to the magnitude of change required to transform our energy systems to mitigate climate change.

  17. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  18. Operational experience in mitigating flammable gas releases from Hanford Site Tank 241-SY-101

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentsch, J.W.; Babad, H.; Kirch, N.W.

    1995-01-01

    Flammable gases consisting of hydrogen, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and methane are periodically released from Hanford Site waste tank 241-SY-101 at concentrations above the flammable limit. A large mixer pump installed in the tank in 1993 has effectively mitigated this problem by continuously releasing small amounts of the flammable gases at the rate they are generated. Tank 241-SY-101 is also equipped with multiple high-sensitivity gas monitoring systems and level detection systems to measure the quantity of gas that is retained in and released from the waste

  19. Scenario of gas-charged sediments and gas hydrates in the western continental margin of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Karisiddaiah, S.M.; SubbaRaju, L.V.

    Echosounding, high-resolution shallow seismic data were collected along track lines spaced at 20 km interval across the western continental margin of India. A detailed analysis of the underway data revealed the occurrence of methane-bearing gas...

  20. Study of the radiated energy loss during massive gas injection mitigated disruptions on EAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Y. M.; Hao, Z. K.; Hu, L. Q.; Wang, L.; Xu, P.; Xu, L. Q.; Zhuang, H. D.; EAST Team

    2015-08-01

    The MGI mitigated disruption experiments were carried out on EAST with a new fast gas controlling valve in 2012. Different amounts of noble gas He or mixed gas of 99% He + 1% Ar are injected into plasma in current flat-top phase and current ramp-down phase separately. The initial results of MGI experiments are described. The MGI system and the radiation measurement system are briefly introduced. The characteristics of radiation distribution and radiation energy loss are analyzed. About 50% of the stored thermal energy Wdia is dissipated by radiation during the entire disruption process and the impurities of C and Li from the PFC play important roles to radiative energy loss. The amount of the gas can affect the pre-TQ phase. Strong poloidal asymmetry of radiation begins to appear in the CQ phase, which is possibly caused by the plasma configuration changes as a result of VDE. No toroidal radiation asymmetry is observed presently.

  1. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  2. Sustainability of UK shale gas in comparison with other electricity options: Current situation and future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jasmin; Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

    2018-04-01

    Many countries are considering exploitation of shale gas but its overall sustainability is currently unclear. Previous studies focused mainly on environmental aspects of shale gas, largely in the US, with scant information on socio-economic aspects. To address this knowledge gap, this paper integrates for the first time environmental, economic and social aspects of shale gas to evaluate its overall sustainability. The focus is on the UK which is on the cusp of developing a shale gas industry. Shale gas is compared to other electricity options for the current situation and future scenarios up to the year 2030 to investigate whether it can contribute towards a more sustainable electricity mix in the UK. The results obtained through multi-criteria decision analysis suggest that, when equal importance is assumed for each of the three sustainability aspects shale gas ranks seventh out of nine electricity options, with wind and solar PV being the best and coal the worst options. However, it outranks biomass and hydropower. Changing the importance of the sustainability aspects widely, the ranking of shale gas ranges between fourth and eighth. For shale gas to become the most sustainable option of those assessed, large improvements would be needed, including a 329-fold reduction in environmental impacts and 16 times higher employment, along with simultaneous large changes (up to 10,000 times) in the importance assigned to each criterion. Similar changes would be needed if it were to be comparable to conventional or liquefied natural gas, biomass, nuclear or hydropower. The results also suggest that a future electricity mix (2030) would be more sustainable with a lower rather than a higher share of shale gas. These results serve to inform UK policy makers, industry and non-governmental organisations. They will also be of interest to other countries considering exploitation of shale gas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  4. Fuel demand projections and comparison of CO2 mitigation scenarios for Brazil until 2035; Projecoes de demanda de combustiveis e comparacao entre cenarios de mitigacao das emissoes de CO2 para o Brasil ate 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribas, Rodrigo Pacheco; Araujo, Maria Silvia Muylaert de; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio Vasconcelo de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Silva, Neilton Fidelis da; Campos, Antonio F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil); Campos, Christiano Pires de; Gutierres, Ricardo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento; Lampreia, Joao [Agencia Internacional de Energia (IEA), Paris (France)

    2012-07-01

    This article results from work undertaken by the technical cooperation between the Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center of PETROBRAS (CENPES/PETROBRAS) and the International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG/Coppe/UFRJ), evaluates how the Oil Sector and the fuels demand (petroleum and natural gas) from Brazil will be impacted in the short, medium and long term for current climate change mitigation policies, as for possible proposals to the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012). Thus, emission scenarios were developed by 2035 as among the main greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), considering data from the World Energy Outlook 2010 / International Energy Agency (IEA), the Second National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) and the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE), from the Energy Research Company (EPE) / Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). (author)

  5. Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

  6. Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwook Yoon

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement, 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000, 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500, and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000. The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.

  7. High-pressure water electrolysis: Electrochemical mitigation of product gas crossover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schalenbach, Maximilian; Stolten, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • New technique to reduce gas crossover during water electrolysis • Increase of the efficiency of pressurized water electrolysis • Prevention of safety hazards due to explosive gas mixtures caused by crossover • Experimental realization for a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer • Discussion of electrochemical crossover mitigation for alkaline water electrolysis - Abstract: Hydrogen produced by water electrolysis can be used as an energy carrier storing electricity generated from renewables. During water electrolysis hydrogen can be evolved under pressure at isothermal conditions, enabling highly efficient compression. However, the permeation of hydrogen through the electrolyte increases with operating pressure and leads to efficiency loss and safety hazards. In this study, we report on an innovative concept, where the hydrogen crossover is electrochemically mitigated by an additional electrode between the anode and the cathode of the electrolysis cell. Experimentally, the technique was applied to a proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer operated at a hydrogen pressure that was fifty times larger than the oxygen pressure. Therewith, the hydrogen crossover was reduced and the current efficiency during partial load operation was increased. The concept is also discussed for water electrolysis that is operated at balanced pressures, where the crossover of hydrogen and oxygen is mitigated using two additional electrodes

  8. National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

  9. Long-run implications for developing countries of joint implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, A.; Bulte, E.; Folmer, H.

    1999-01-01

    Joint Implementation (JI) calls for cooperation between industrialized and developing countries in the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a major concern of potential host countries is that if they utilize their low-cost options for JI now, they will be left with only high cost options in the future, thereby penalizing them at a time when they may be obligated to mitigate GHGs themselves. This paper formalizes this hypothesis by utilizing an optimal control framework analogous to the Hotelling model of non-renewable resource extraction. The results are that cumulative abatement effects can impose costs on the future, but that they can be offset by technological change, market power, or compensation. 11 refs

  10. Power production feasibility analysis from landfill gas in Cruzeiro [SP, Brazil]: three different scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia de Oliveira Silva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Solid wastes are related to diseases and environmental pollution, the need for greater knowledge of the waste composition and the best final disposal from this waste. The importance of the environmental sanitation can be observed in PNRS (national solid waste politics, which describes the need for urban cleaning and garbage collection, from the implementation of goals for better allocation of this waste. For the purpose of an overview of the solid waste produced in the city of Cruzeiro [State of Sao Paulo, Brazil], a projection and analysis of the construction of a landfill for the packaging of this waste, beginning by the year 2013, for a period of 20 years. The lack of places for waste packaging results in contamination of groundwater and soils. With the help of the software "WARM", the analysis of three scenarios, with material recycling and composting, and use the 2 and 3 scenarios with the use of gas.

  11. Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eory, Vera; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Moran, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curves can inform integrated environmental policy. ► We incorporated the co-effects on NH 3 , NO 3 − , P and sediment, as monetary values, into the UK GHG MACC. ► Adding co-effects modifies the GHG MACC, though with little impact unless using high damage values. ► Further research is needed on the co-effects of GHG mitigation measures and on damage values. ► Analysis should focus on the co-effects of measures that are slightly above or below the threshold. -- Abstract: This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates

  12. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Rural Household Biogas Systems in China: A Life Cycle Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hou

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural household biogas (RHB systems are at a crossroads in China, yet there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of their energy and climate (greenhouse gas mitigation efficiency under typical operating conditions. We combined data from monitoring projects and questionnaire surveys across hundreds of households from two typical Chinese villages within a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA framework to assess net GHG (greenhouse gas mitigation by RHB systems operated in different contexts. We modelled biogas production, measured biogas losses and used survey data from biogas and non-biogas households to derive empirical RHB system substitution rates for energy and fertilizers. Our results indicate that poorly designed and operated RHB systems in northern regions of China may in fact increase farm household GHG emissions by an average of 2668 kg CO2-eq· year−1, compared with a net mitigation effect of 6336 kg CO2-eq per household and year in southern regions. Manure treatment (104 and 8513 kg CO2-eq mitigation and biogas leakage (-533 and -2489 kg CO2-eq emission are the two most important factors affecting net GHG mitigation by RHB systems in northern and southern China, respectively. In contrast, construction (−173 and −305 kg CO2-eq emission, energy substitution (−522 emission and 653 kg·CO2-eq mitigation and nutrient substitution (−1544 and −37 kg CO2-eq emission made small contributions across the studied systems. In fact, survey data indicated that biogas households had higher energy and fertilizer use, implying no net substitution effect. Low biogas yields in the cold northern climate and poor maintenance services were cited as major reasons for RHB abandonment by farmers. We conclude that the design and management of RHB systems needs to be revised and better adapted to local climate (e.g., digester insulation and household energy demand (biogas storage and micro power generators to avoid discharge of unburned biogas

  13. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  14. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2013-07-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Implementing the EMF 9 gas trade scenarios and interpreting the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowse, J.

    1989-01-01

    Detailed description of the model employed appears in Rowse (1986) and the Appendix of Rowse (1987). Only the salient features are discussed here, along with the modifications carried out for the EMF scenarios and certain specific data and assumptions important for understanding the empirical results. The nonlinear programming model has seven Canadian regions, pipeline links to three US regions, twenty-five three-year time periods representing 1986-2060, and perfect foresight in allocating gas to domestic and export regions. It determines equilibrium Canadian consumption levels, Canadian supplies and exports to the US over this time frame by solving for equilibrium prices. Figure 1 indicates the regional breakdown employed, with the principal supply regions lying in Western Canada. Ontario is the principal consuming region in Canada. Prospective supplies and their locations are also indicated in Figure 1. All producing provinces of Western Canada have existing and prospective conventional supplies of gas, while prospective nonconventional supplies are confied to Alberta. Nonconventional or Deep Basin supplies are assumed available only by the mid-1990's at the earliest because they have not previously been commercially produced. Prospective supplies are also assumed available from the Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea area - henceforth simply Delta - but only by the mid-1990's as well due to the lead time necessary for pipeline construction and for industry confidence in the financial viability of megaprojects to recover. Delta gas is shown as a prospective Alberta source because, if developed, it will likely be pipelined south to connect with the existing transportation network in Alberta. Both nonconventional gas and Delta gas are more costly than future conventional gas supplies but the latter can only be introduced gradually over time because of constraints on gas finding rates and expansion of the domestic drilling rig fleet

  16. Cities' Role in Mitigating United States Food System Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohareb, Eugene A; Heller, Martin C; Guthrie, Peter M

    2018-05-15

    Current trends of urbanization, population growth, and economic development have made cities a focal point for mitigating global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The substantial contribution of food consumption to climate change necessitates urban action to reduce the carbon intensity of the food system. While food system GHG mitigation strategies often focus on production, we argue that urban influence dominates this sector's emissions and that consumers in cities must be the primary drivers of mitigation. We quantify life cycle GHG emissions of the United States food system through data collected from literature and government sources producing an estimated total of 3800 kg CO 2 e/capita in 2010, with cities directly influencing approximately two-thirds of food sector GHG emissions. We then assess the potential for cities to reduce emissions through selected measures; examples include up-scaling urban agriculture and home delivery of grocery options, which each may achieve emissions reductions on the order of 0.4 and ∼1% of this total, respectively. Meanwhile, changes in waste management practices and reduction of postdistribution food waste by 50% reduce total food sector emissions by 5 and 11%, respectively. Consideration of the scale of benefits achievable through policy goals can enable cities to formulate strategies that will assist in achieving deep long-term GHG emissions targets.

  17. Experimental hydrate formation and gas production scenarios based on CO{sub 2} sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, J.C.; Howard, J.J. [ConocoPhillips, Bartlesville, OK (United States). Reservoir Laboratories; Baldwin, B.A. [Green Country Petrophysics LLC, Dewey, OK (United States); Ersland, G.; Husebo, J.; Graue, A. [Bergen Univ., Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Physics and Technology

    2008-07-01

    Gas hydrate production strategies have focused on depressurization or thermal stimulation of the reservoir, which in turn leads to hydrate dissociation. In order to evaluate potential production scenarios, the recovery efficiency of the natural gas from hydrate must be known along with the corresponding amounts of produced water. This study focused on the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) with the natural gas hydrate and the subsequent release of free methane (CH{sub 4}). Laboratory experiments that investigated the rates and mechanisms of hydrate formation in coarse-grained porous media have shown the significance of initial water saturation and salinity on forming methane hydrates. Many of the experiments were performed in a sample holder fitted with an MRI instrument for monitoring hydrate formation. Hydrate-saturated samples were subjected to different procedures to release methane. The rates and efficiency of the exchange process were reproducible over a series of initial conditions. The exchange process was rapid and efficient in that no free water was observed in the core with MRI measurements. Injection of CO{sub 2} into the whole-core hydrate-saturated pore system resulted in methane production at the outlet end. Permeability measurements on these hydrate saturated cores during hydrate formation decreased to low values, but enough for gas transport. The lower permeability values remained constant during the methane-carbon dioxide exchange process in the hydrate structure. 12 refs., 9 figs.

  18. Naturalness and stability of the generalized Chaplygin gas in the seesaw cosmon scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernardini, A. E.; Bertolami, O.

    2010-01-01

    The seesaw mechanism is conceived on the basis that a mass scale, ξ, and a dimensionless scale, s, can be fine-tuned in order to control the dynamics of active and sterile neutrinos through cosmon-type equations of motion: the seesaw cosmon equations. This allows for sterile neutrinos to be a dark matter candidate. In this scenario, the dynamical masses and energy densities of active and sterile neutrinos can be consistently embedded into the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG), the unified dark sector model. In addition, dark matter adiabatically coupled to dark energy allows for a natural decoupling of the (active) mass varying neutrino component from the dark sector. Thus mass varying neutrinos turn into a secondary effect. Through the scale parameters, ξ and s, the proposed scenario allows for a convergence among three distinct frameworks: the cosmon scenario, the seesaw mechanism for mass generation, and the GCG model. It is found that the equation of state of the perturbations is the very one of the GCG background cosmology so that all the results from this approach are maintained, being smoothly modified by active neutrinos. Constrained by the seesaw relations, it is shown that the mass varying mechanism is responsible for the stability against linear perturbations and is indirectly related to the late time cosmological acceleration.

  19. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  20. Plasma profile evolution during disruption mitigation via massive gas injection on MAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, A. J.; Gibson, K. J.; Chapman, I. T.; Harrison, J. R.; Kirk, A.; Lisgo, S. W.; Lehnen, M.; Martin, R.; Scannell, R.; Cullen, A.; the MAST Team

    2012-06-01

    Massive gas injection (MGI) is one means of ameliorating disruptions in future devices such as ITER, where the stored energy in the plasma is an order of magnitude larger than in present-day devices. The penetration of the injected impurities during MGI in MAST is diagnosed using a combination of high-speed (20 kHz) visible imaging and high spatial (1 cm) and temporal (0.1 ms) resolution Thomson scattering (TS) measurements of the plasma temperature and density. It is seen that the rational surfaces, in particular q = 2, are the critical surfaces for disruption mitigation. The TS data shows the build-up of density on rational surfaces in the edge cooling period of the mitigation, leading to the collapse of the plasma in a thermal quench. The TS data are confirmed by the visible imaging, which shows filamentary structures present at the start of the thermal quench. The filamentary structures have a topology which matches that of a q = 2 field line in MAST, suggesting that they are located on the q = 2 surface. Linearized magnetohydrodynamic stability analysis using the TS profiles suggests that the large density build-up on the rational surfaces drives modes within the plasma which lead to the thermal quench. The presence of such modes is seen experimentally in the form of magnetic fluctuations on Mirnov coils and the growth of an n = 1 toroidal mode in the period prior to the thermal quench. These results support the observations of other machines that the 2/1 mode is the likely trigger for the thermal quench in a mitigated disruption and suggests that the mitigation process in spherical tokamaks is similar to that in conventional aspect ratio devices.

  1. Plasma profile evolution during disruption mitigation via massive gas injection on MAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornton, A.J.; Chapman, I.T.; Harrison, J.R.; Kirk, A.; Martin, R.; Scannell, R.; Cullen, A.; Gibson, K.J.; Lisgo, S.W.; Lehnen, M.

    2012-01-01

    Massive gas injection (MGI) is one means of ameliorating disruptions in future devices such as ITER, where the stored energy in the plasma is an order of magnitude larger than in present-day devices. The penetration of the injected impurities during MGI in MAST is diagnosed using a combination of high-speed (20 kHz) visible imaging and high spatial (1 cm) and temporal (0.1 ms) resolution Thomson scattering (TS) measurements of the plasma temperature and density. It is seen that the rational surfaces, in particular q = 2, are the critical surfaces for disruption mitigation. The TS data shows the build-up of density on rational surfaces in the edge cooling period of the mitigation, leading to the collapse of the plasma in a thermal quench. The TS data are confirmed by the visible imaging, which shows filamentary structures present at the start of the thermal quench. The filamentary structures have a topology which matches that of a q = 2 field line in MAST, suggesting that they are located on the q = 2 surface. Linearized magnetohydrodynamic stability analysis using the TS profiles suggests that the large density build-up on the rational surfaces drives modes within the plasma which lead to the thermal quench. The presence of such modes is seen experimentally in the form of magnetic fluctuations on Mirnov coils and the growth of an n = 1 toroidal mode in the period prior to the thermal quench. These results support the observations of other machines that the 2/1 mode is the likely trigger for the thermal quench in a mitigated disruption and suggests that the mitigation process in spherical tokamaks is similar to that in conventional aspect ratio devices. (paper)

  2. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Development of realtime disaster mitigation system for urban gas supply network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, Y.; Koganemaru, K.; Nakayama, W. [Technology Research Inst., Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Yamazaki, F. [Chiba University, Chiba (Japan); Isoyama, R.; Ishida, E. [Japan Engineering Consultants Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    In response to the Kobe earthquake in 1995, efforts were initiated to develop a real-time system to mitigate earthquake-induced damages in gas supply networks which aimed at collecting information quickly and, if necessary, carrying out emergency measures. A new compact seismograph was recently developed, entitled New SI Sensor (SI). This device houses an electronic circuit which determines the SI value more precisely, detects the onset of liquefaction, and transmits the whole time history of seismic acceleration to head quarters. Consequently, a new safety system called SUPer-dense REaltime Monitoring of Earthquake (SUPREME) was developed which makes use of 3,800 new SI sensors. This paper introduces the structure of this new system. The remote shut-off using SUPREME results in quick gas supply shut-off and effectively reduce the risk of gas leakage during earthquakes. With enhanced use of geographic information systems, SUPREME can also conduct damage assessment for gas pipelines. To estimate the distribution of SI values and liquefied depth more precisely, digital map, geological map, topographical map and borehole logging data of about 60,000 sites were collected and compiled. Site amplification factors for SI values were estimated at the boring points. Then, spatial distribution of the site amplification factor was estimated based on weighted average of the amplification factors of surrounding boring points and the geological and topographical maps. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs.

  4. Formulation and evaluation of gas release scenarios for the silo in Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlsson, J.; Moreno, L.

    1992-01-01

    The Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR) has been in operation since 1988 and is located in the crystalline rock, 60 m below the Baltic Sea. In the licensing procedure for the SFR the safety assessment has been complemented with a detailed scenario analysis of the performance of the repository. The scenarios include the influence on radionuclide release by gas formation and gas transport processes in the silo. The overall conclusion is that the release of most radionuclides from the silo is only marginally affected by the formation and release of gas, even for scenarios considering unexpected events. The largest effects were found for short-lived radionuclides and radionuclides that have no or low sorption ability. Except for very extreme scenarios for the silo the overall impact from repository on the environment is by far dominated by the release of radionuclides from the rock vaults. 10 refs., 6 figs

  5. Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyun Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

  6. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP van; Fengqi Zhou; Vries HJM de; Kejun Jiang; Graveland C; Yun Li; Energy Research Institute,; MNV

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study reported here was to explore possible baseline developments and available options for mitigating emissions in China. The first part of the report deals with an analysis and overview of available data on historic energy production and consumption trends and current energy

  7. The Emergence of Climate Change and Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  8. Sectoral approaches establishment for climate change mitigation in Thailand upstream oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaiyapa, Warathida; Esteban, Miguel; Kameyama, Yasuko

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry's responses to climate change and what factors can be influential to trigger their mitigation strategies is crucial for policy-makers to harness the huge resources that this industry can mobilize towards environmental protection. Considering that individual climate change efforts are unlikely to affect global mitigation paths, the study investigates the possibility that sectoral approaches can help in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, using Thailand as a case study. It conducted online questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews to acquire primary data from companies and key informants from the government, NGOs, NPOs and academics. The results suggested that, among three possible groups of factors that could affect company decisions on whether to promote sectoral approaches, domestic politics (particularly the Thai government) is the most important, though other factors also play important and interrelated roles. The most welcomed type of scheme that could be envisaged would appear to be a sectoral agreement between government and industry. Finally, the authors provide two main policy recommendations, namely the establishment of an industrial association of O&G companies and for it to target how to start looking at measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions amongst large companies in the sector. - Highlights: •Examining the possibility of establishing a sectoral approach Thailand's upstream O&G industry. •Analytical framework was constructed to ascertain most influential factors. •Questionnaires and interviews were employed with companies, government, NGOs and academic. •Domestic politics is the most determining factor, but other factors have strong interrelation. •Sectoral agreement between government and industry is the most likely scheme to be established.

  9. Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

  10. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powell, Thomas W R; Lenton, Timothy M

    2013-01-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species–energy and species–area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect. (letter)

  11. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  12. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of short-rotation-coppice based generation of electricity in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Kern, J.; Balasus, A.; Prochnow, A. [Leibniz Inst. of Agricultural Engineering, Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    The generation of energy from wood biomass may help secure local energy supplies and reduce the greenhouse effect by substituting fossil resources with bio-based ones. In the case of short rotation coppice (SRC), bio-based resources can be generated by extensive agricultural production systems. They produce less carbon dioxide equivalent (CO{sub 2eq}) emissions than fossil resources. This paper reported on a study in which a model system was developed for a regional supply chain producing second generation bioenergy generated from SRC in eastern Germany. The study focuses on the generation of electricity and was compared to a business-as-usual reference system, based on the latest CO{sub 2} mitigation factors for renewable energies in the German power-generation mix. A life cycle assessment based on greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories was also conducted in which other factors were also considered, such as options for nutrient cycling. The key determinants for GHG mitigation with SRC were also discussed with regards to indirect land-use effects resulting from increased demand for land.

  13. Planning regional energy system in association with greenhouse gas mitigation under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H. [Research Academy of Energy and Environmental Studies, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Chen, X. [Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011 (China)

    2011-03-15

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are expected to continue to rise due to the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels and ever-boosting demand for energy. This leads to inevitable conflict between satisfying increasing energy demand and reducing GHG emissions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic optimization model (IFOM) is developed for planning energy systems in association with GHG mitigation. Multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, fuzzy-intervals and their combinations are allowed to be incorporated within the framework of IFOM. The developed method is then applied to a case study of long-term planning of a regional energy system, where integer programming (IP) technique is introduced into the IFOM to facilitate dynamic analysis for capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multistage context to satisfy increasing energy demand. Solutions related fuzzy and probability information are obtained and can be used for generating decision alternatives. The results can not only provide optimal energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans, but also help decision-makers identify desired policies for GHG mitigation with a cost-effective manner. (author)

  14. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from China's cities: Case study of Suzhou

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Hongsheng; Wang, Yunxia; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Miaomiao; Zhang, Yanxia; Zhang, Rongrong; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the factors driving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is crucial to mitigating China's anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, the main drivers increasing GHG emissions from the Chinese city of Suzhou between 2005 and 2010 were identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Kaya identity and the log-mean Divisia index method. We found that economy and population were the major drivers of GHG emissions in Suzhou, having contributed 162.20% and 109.04%, respectively, to the increase in emissions. A decline in carbon intensity, which was caused by the declining energy intensity and an adjustment to the mixture of power and industrial structures, was the major determinant and accounted for a reduction of 171.24% in GHG emissions. Slowing and maintaining healthy growth rates of economy and population could be the primary and most effective means if Suzhou tries to curb the total emissions over the short term. It may be more realistic for Suzhou to control emissions by optimizing the economic structure for low-carbon industrial development because of the city's relative high energy requirements and low potential to mitigate GHGs by adjusting the energy mixture. - Highlights: • Per capita carbon emissions in Suzhou kept stable at 15 tons/year during period 2005–2010. • Slowing down growth rates of GDP and population could effectively control Suzhou's emissions. • Low carbon development policies were also recommended for other Chinese cities

  15. Emerging Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies for the Pulp and Paper Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kong, Lingbo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-11-01

    The pulp and paper industry ranks fourth in terms of energy consumption among industries worldwide. Globally, the pulp and paper industry accounted for approximately 5 percent of total world industrial final energy consumption in 2007, and contributed 2 percent of direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industry. Worldwide pulp and paper demand and production are projected to increase significantly by 2050, leading to an increase in this industry’s absolute energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Development of new energy-efficiency and GHG mitigation technologies and their deployment in the market will be crucial for the pulp and paper industry’s mid- and long-term climate change mitigation strategies. This report describes the industry’s processes and compiles available information on the energy savings, environmental and other benefits, costs, commercialization status, and references for 36 emerging technologies to reduce the industry’s energy use and GHG emissions. Although studies from around the world identify a variety of sector-specific and cross-cutting energy-efficiency technologies that have already been commercialized for the pulp and paper industry, information is scarce and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy-efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet commercialized. The purpose of this report is to provide engineers, researchers, investors, paper companies, policy makers, and other interested parties with easy access to a well-structured resource of information on these technologies.

  16. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  17. Energy-saving options for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the Mongolian energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorjpurev, J.; Purevjal, O.; Erdenechimeg, Ch. [and others

    1996-12-31

    The Energy sector is the largest contributor to GHG emission in Mongolia. The Energy sector emits 54 percent of CO2 and 4 percent of methane. All emissions of other greenhouse gases are accounted from energy related activities. The activities in this sector include coal production, fuel combustion, and biomass combustion at the thermal power stations and in private houses (stoves) for heating purposes. This paper presents some important Demand-side options considered for mitigation of CO2 emissions from energy sector such as Energy Conservation in Industrial Sector and in Buildings. Changes in energy policies and programmes in the Mongolian situation that promote more efficient and sustainable practices are presented in the paper. These energy saving measures will not only help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but will also promote economic development and alleviate other environmental problems.

  18. Mitigation of global warming and the role of identification of greenhouse gas sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaya, Y.

    2002-01-01

    Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST) is an organization supporting R and D of frontier science and technologies under the full sponsorship of the government of Japan. Under the umbrella of JST the author is in charge of a program called 'Environment friendly social systems' which includes more than 20 research projects for better environment (with as an average of 1 million US dollars per project per year). One of the projects in this program is on development of isotopomer technology and its use in identifying greenhouse gas (GHG) sources headed by Prof. N.Yoshida. JST earnestly hopes that it can contribute as much as possible to mitigation of global warming through the support of important research projects such as Yoshida's. (author)

  19. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  20. Greenhouse gas mitigation for U.S. plastics production: energy first, feedstocks later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posen, I. Daniel; Jaramillo, Paulina; Landis, Amy E.; Griffin, W. Michael

    2017-03-01

    Plastics production is responsible for 1% and 3% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy use, respectively. Replacing conventional plastics with bio-based plastics (made from renewable feedstocks) is frequently proposed as a way to mitigate these impacts. Comparatively little research has considered the potential for green energy to reduce emissions in this industry. This paper compares two strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. plastics production: using renewable energy or switching to renewable feedstocks. Renewable energy pathways assume all process energy comes from wind power and renewable natural gas derived from landfill gas. Renewable feedstock pathways assume that all commodity thermoplastics will be replaced with polylactic acid (PLA) and bioethylene-based plastics, made using either corn or switchgrass, and powered using either conventional or renewable energy. Corn-based biopolymers produced with conventional energy are the dominant near-term biopolymer option, and can reduce industry-wide GHG emissions by 25%, or 16 million tonnes CO2e/year (mean value). In contrast, switching to renewable energy cuts GHG emissions by 50%-75% (a mean industry-wide reduction of 38 million tonnes CO2e/year). Both strategies increase industry costs—by up to 85/tonne plastic (mean result) for renewable energy, and up to 3000 tonne-1 plastic for renewable feedstocks. Overall, switching to renewable energy achieves greater emission reductions, with less uncertainty and lower costs than switching to corn-based biopolymers. In the long run, producing bio-based plastics from advanced feedstocks (e.g. switchgrass) and/or with renewable energy can further reduce emissions, to approximately 0 CO2e/year (mean value).

  1. Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

    1998-12-31

    Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

  2. Pollutant swapping: greenhouse gas emissions from wetland systems constructed to mitigate agricultural pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Adam; Quinton, John; Surridge, Ben; McNamara, Niall

    2014-05-01

    Diffuse (non-point) water pollution from agricultural land continues to challenge water quality management, requiring the adoption of new land management practices. The use of constructed agricultural wetlands is one such practice, designed to trap multiple pollutants mobilised by rainfall prior to them reaching receiving water. Through capturing and storing pollutants in bottom sediments, it could be hypothesised that the abundance of nutrients stored in the anoxic conditions commonly found in these zones may lead to pollutant swapping. Under these circumstances, trapped material may undergo biogeochemical cycling to change chemical or physical form and thereby become more problematic or mobile within the environment. Thus, constructed agricultural wetlands designed to mitigate against one form of pollution may in fact offset the created benefits by 'swapping' this pollution into other forms and pathways, such as through release to the atmosphere. Pollutant swapping to the atmosphere has been noted in analogous wetland systems designed to treat municipal and industrial wastewaters, with significant fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O being recorded in some cases. However the small size, low level of engineering and variable nutrient/sediment inputs which are features of constructed agricultural wetlands, means that this knowledge is not directly transferable. Therefore, more information is required when assessing whether a wetland's potential to act as hotspot for pollution swapping outweighs its potential to act as a mitigation tool for surface water pollution. Here we present results from an on-going monitoring study at a trial agricultural wetland located in small a mixed-use catchment in Cumbria, UK. Estimates were made of CH4, CO2 and N2O flux from the wetland surface using adapted floating static chambers, which were then directly compared with fluxes from an undisturbed riparian zone. Results indicate that while greenhouse gas flux from the wetland may be

  3. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation from changes to crop root mass and architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paustian, Keith [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Campbell, Nell [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Dorich, Chris [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Marx, Ernest [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Swan, Amy [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States)

    2016-01-29

    Reducing (and eventually reversing) the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to human activities, and thus reducing the extent and severity of anthropogenic climate change, is one of the great challenges facing humanity. While most of the man-caused increase in GHGs has been due to fossil fuel use, land use (including agriculture) currently accounts for about 25% of total GHG emissions and thus there is a need to include emission reductions from the land use sector as part of an effective climate change mitigation strategy. In addition, analyses included in the recent IPCC 5th Climate Change Assessment report suggests that it may not be possible to achieve large enough emissions reductions in the energy, transport and industrial sectors alone to stabilize GHG concentrations at a level commensurate with a less than 2°C global average temperature increase, without the help of a substantial CO2 sink (i.e., atmospheric CO2 removal) from the land use sector. One of the potential carbon sinks that could contribute to this goal is increasing C storage in soil organic matter on managed lands. This report details a preliminary scoping analysis, to assess the potential agricultural area in the US – where appropriate soil, climate and land use conditions exist – to determine the land area on which ‘improved root phenotype’ crops could be deployed and to evaluate the potential long-term soil C storage, given a set of ‘bounding scenarios’ of increased crop root input and/or rooting depth for major crop species (e.g., row crops (corn, sorghum, soybeans), small grains (wheat, barley, oats), and hay and pasture perennial forages). The enhanced root phenotype scenarios assumed 25, 50 and 100% increase in total root C inputs, in combination with five levels of modifying crop root distributions (i.e., no change and four scenarios with increasing downward shift in root distributions). We also analyzed impacts of greater root

  4. National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

    2010-01-01

    An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

  5. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in China's agriculture: from farm production to food consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Qian; Cheng, Kun; Pan, Genxing

    2016-04-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture could be mitigated from both supple side and demand side. Assessing carbon footprint (CF) of agricultural production and food consumption could provide insights into the contribution of agriculture to climate change and help to identify possible GHG mitigation options. In the present study, CF of China's agricultural production was firstly assessed from site scale to national scale, and from crop production to livestock production. Data for the crop and livestock production were collected from field survey and national statistical archive, and both life cycle assessment and input-output method were employed in the estimations. In general, CF of crop production was lower than that of livestock production on average. Rice production ranked the highest CF in crop production, and the highest CFs of livestock production were observed in mutton and beef production. Methane emissions from rice paddy, emissions from fertilizer application and water irrigation exerted the largest contribution of more than 50% for CF of crop production; however, emissions from forage feeding, enteric fermentation and manure treatment made the most proportion of more than 90 % for CF of livestock production. In China, carbon efficiency was shown in a decreasing trend in recent years. According to the present study, overuse of nitrogen fertilizer caused no yield effect but significant emissions in some sites and regions of China, and aggregated farms lowered the CFs of crop production and livestock production by 3% to 25% and 6% to 60% respectively compared to household farms. Given these, improving farming management efficiency and farm intensive development is the key strategy to mitigate climate change from supply side. However, changes in food consumption may reduce GHG emissions in the production chain through a switch to the consumption of food with higher GHG emissions in the production process to food with lower GHG emissions. Thus, CFs

  6. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  7. Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

  8. Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

  9. Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-08-01

    Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

  10. Fugitive emission inventory from Brazilian oil and gas industry (2000-2005) and discussion of mitigation measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carloni, Flavia A.; D' Avignon, Alexandre; La Rovere, Emilio L. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Centro Clima

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate current emissions of GHGs within the Brazilian oil and gas industry, specifically the fugitive emissions arising from exploration and production. Besides, projects for mitigating these emissions and opportunities for the national industry are investigated. Results show that N{sub 2}O contributes little to fugitive emissions from the oil and gas industry, principally from gas sector. NMVOC emissions are significant, principally from the oil sector. In relation to CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} emissions, the oil sector emits more CO{sub 2} while the gas sector contributes more to CH{sub 4} emissions. In both sectors flaring is the activity that emits most CO{sub 2}. In relation to CH{sub 4} the principal contribution to emissions are from exploration and production onshore, although offshore activities as a whole play a greater part in the national industry. The results make it clear that the use of gas from flaring activity is a great opportunity for emission mitigation projects. From a business point of view, methane emissions could mean lost opportunities in selling natural gas. The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, as the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation actions, provide the opportunity to stimulate investments in projects for reducing flaring and venting of associated gas. (author)

  11. The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann

    2018-01-01

    Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation...... only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (p

  12. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete

    2017-01-16

    Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 rice, 45.54 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

  13. Techno-Economic Evaluation of Technologies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions at North American Refineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motazedi, Kavan; Abella, Jessica P; Bergerson, Joule A

    2017-02-07

    A petroleum refinery model, Petroleum Refinery Life-cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM), that estimates energy use and CO 2 emissions was modified to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of a set of technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions at refineries. Cogeneration of heat and power (CHP), carbon capture at fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) and steam methane reformer (SMR) units, and alternative hydrogen production technologies were considered in the analysis. The results indicate that a 3-44% reduction in total annual refinery CO 2 emissions (2-24% reductions in the CO 2 emissions on a per barrel of crude oil processed) can be achieved in a medium conversion refinery that processes a typical U.S. crude slate obtained by using the technologies considered. A sensitivity analysis of the quality of input crude to a refinery, refinery configuration, and prices of natural gas and electricity revealed how the magnitude of possible CO 2 emissions reductions and the economic performance of the mitigation technologies can vary under different conditions. The analysis can help inform decision making related to investment decisions and CO 2 emissions policy in the refining sector.

  14. Strategies to Optimize Microbially-Mediated Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Landfill Cover Soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeremy Semrau; Sung-Woo Lee; Jeongdae Im; Sukhwan Yoon; Michael Barcelona

    2010-09-30

    The overall objective of this project, 'Strategies to Optimize Microbially-Mediated Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Landfill Cover Soils' was to develop effective, efficient, and economic methodologies by which microbial production of nitrous oxide can be minimized while also maximizing microbial consumption of methane in landfill cover soils. A combination of laboratory and field site experiments found that the addition of nitrogen and phenylacetylene stimulated in situ methane oxidation while minimizing nitrous oxide production. Molecular analyses also indicated that methane-oxidizing bacteria may play a significant role in not only removing methane, but in nitrous oxide production as well, although the contribution of ammonia-oxidizing archaea to nitrous oxide production can not be excluded at this time. Future efforts to control both methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landfills as well as from other environments (e.g., agricultural soils) should consider these issues. Finally, a methanotrophic biofiltration system was designed and modeled for the promotion of methanotrophic activity in local methane 'hotspots' such as landfills. Model results as well as economic analyses of these biofilters indicate that the use of methanotrophic biofilters for controlling methane emissions is technically feasible, and provided either the costs of biofilter construction and operation are reduced or the value of CO{sub 2} credits is increased, can also be economically attractive.

  15. Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

    2017-03-07

    Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

  16. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  17. Numerical simulation studies of gas production scenarios from hydrate accumulations at the Mallik Site, McKenzie Delta, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moridis, George J.; Collett, Timothy S.; Dallimore, Scott R.; Satoh, Tohru; Hancock, Stephen; Weatherill, Brian

    2002-01-01

    The Mallik site represents an onshore permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulation in the Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada. An 1150 m deep gas hydrate research well was drilled at the site in 1998. The objective of this study is the analysis of various gas production scenarios from several gas-hydrate-bearing zones at the Mallik site. The TOUGH2 general-purpose simulator with the EOSHYDR2 module were used for the analysis. EOSHYDR2 is designed to model the non-isothermal CH(sub 4) (methane) release, phase behavior and flow under conditions typical of methane-hydrate deposits by solving the coupled equations of mass and heat balance, and can describe any combination of gas hydrate dissociation mechanisms. Numerical simulations indicated that significant gas hydrate production at the Mallik site was possible by drawing down the pressure on a thin free-gas zone at the base of the hydrate stability field. Gas hydrate zones with underlying aquifers yielded significant gas production entirely from dissociated gas hydrate, but large amounts of produced water. Lithologically isolated gas-hydrate-bearing reservoirs with no underlying free gas or water zones, and gas-hydrate saturations of at least 50% were also studied. In these cases, it was assumed that thermal stimulation by circulating hot water in the well was the method used to induce dissociation. Sensitivity studies indicated that the methane release from the hydrate accumulations increases with gas-hydrate saturation, the initial formation temperature, the temperature of the circulating water in the well, and the formation thermal conductivity. Methane production appears to be less sensitive to the rock and hydrate specific heat and permeability of the formation

  18. Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

  19. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  20. Biofuel use assessments in Africa. Implications for greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kgathi, D.L.; Zhou, P.

    1995-01-01

    The energy balances of most African countries suggest that biofuels (wood fuel, crop and wood dues, and dung) constitute the largest share of total energy consumption (up to 97% in some sub-Saharan African countries). There is, however an increasing scarcity of wood fuel (fuel wood and charcoal), the major biofuel, and a feared increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with biofuel combustion. The extent of GHG emissions is estimated from biofuel consumption levels that are in turn based on methodologies that might be inaccurate. A questionnaire, supplemented by informal interviews, are used to collect data, yielding information regarding end-uses, technologies used, scale of consumption, determinants of fuel consumption, and interfuel substitution (among other parameters). The survey revealed that cooking is the major end-use, with other common uses, such as space and water heating. Improved stoves that provide better combustion efficiency and, thus, reduce wood fuel consumption have not been widely disseminated and are associated with higher methane emissions than open fires. More than 90% of the households in Africa use open fires. Consumption is presented as per capita for households and as products and quantity of fuel in the small scale industries, commercial, and public sectors. Among the determinants for biofuel consumption are affordability, availability of the fuel, and interfuel substitutions. Flaws in estimating biofuel consumption yield large uncertainties in GHG emissions, with implications for the development of policies on energy planning and environmental protection. However, the application of scenarios can guide policy formulation. 5 tabs., 42 refs

  1. Biofuel use assessments in Africa: Implications for greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kgathi, D L; Zhou, P

    1995-01-01

    The energy balances of most African countries suggest that biofuels (woodfuel, crop and wood residues, and dung) constitute the largest share of total energy consumption (up to 97% in some sub-Saharan Africa countries). There is, however, an increasing scarcity of woodfuel (fuelwood and charcoal), the major biofuel, and a feared increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with biofuel combustion. The extent of GHG emissions is estimated from biofuel consumption levels that are in turn based on methodologies that might be inaccurate. A questionnaire, supplemented by informal interviews, are used to collect data, yielding information regarding end-uses, technologies used, scale of consumption, determinants of fuel consumption, and interfuel substitution (among other parameters). The survey revealed that cooking is the major end-use, with other common uses, such as space and water heating. Improved stoves that provide better combustion efficiency and, thus, reduce woodfuel consumption have not been widely disseminated and are associated with higher methane emissions than open fires. More than 90% of the households in Africa use open fires. Consumption is presented as per capita for households and as products and quantity of fuel in the small scale industries, commercial, and public sectors. Among the determinants for biofuel consumption are affordability, availability of the fuel, and interfuel substitutions. Flaws in estimating biofuel consumption yield large uncertainties in GHG emissions, with implications for the development of policies on energy planning and environmental protection. However, the application of scenarios can guide policy formulation.

  2. The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

    2012-03-01

    Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

  3. A greenhouse-gas information system monitoring and validating emissions reporting and mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonietz, Karl K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dimotakis, Paul E [JPL/CAL TECH; Roman, Douglas A [LLNL; Walker, Bruce C [SNL

    2011-09-26

    Current GHG-mitigating regimes, whether internationally agreed or self-imposed, rely on the aggregation of self-reported data, with limited checks for consistency and accuracy, for monitoring. As nations commit to more stringent GHG emissions-mitigation actions and as economic rewards or penalties are attached to emission levels, self-reported data will require independent confirmation that they are accurate and reliable, if they are to provide the basis for critical choices and actions that may be required. Supporting emissions-mitigation efforts and agreements, as well as monitoring energy- and fossil-fuel intensive national and global activities would be best achieved by a process of: (1) monitoring of emissions and emission-mitigation actions, based, in part, on, (2) (self-) reporting of pertinent bottom-up inventory data, (3) verification that reported data derive from and are consistent with agreed-upon processes and procedures, and (4) validation that reported emissions and emissions-mitigation action data are correct, based on independent measurements (top-down) derived from a suite of sensors in space, air, land, and, possibly, sea, used to deduce and attribute anthropogenic emissions. These data would be assessed and used to deduce and attribute measured GHG concentrations to anthropogenic emissions, attributed geographically and, to the extent possible, by economic sector. The validation element is needed to provide independent assurance that emissions are in accord with reported values, and should be considered as an important addition to the accepted MRV process, leading to a MRV&V process. This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a

  4. Evaluation of mitigation strategies in Facility Group 1 double-shell flammable-gas tanks at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Sadasivan, P.; Kubic, W.L.; White, J.R.

    1997-11-01

    Radioactive nuclear waste at the Hanford Site is stored in underground waste storage tanks at the site. The tanks fall into two main categories: single-shell tanks (SSTs) and double-shell tanks (DSTs). There are a total of 149 SSTs and 28 DSTs. The wastes stored in the tanks are chemically complex. They basically involve various sodium salts (mainly nitrite, nitrate, carbonates, aluminates, and hydroxides), organic compounds, heavy metals, and various radionuclides, including cesium, strontium, plutonium, and uranium. The waste is known to generate flammable gas (FG) [hydrogen, ammonia, nitrous oxide, hydrocarbons] by complex chemical reactions. The process of gas generation, retention, and release is transient. Some tanks reach a quasi-steady stage where gas generation is balanced by the release rate. Other tanks show continuous cycles of retention followed by episodic release. There currently are 25 tanks on the Flammable Gas Watch List (FGWL). The objective of this report is to evaluate possible mitigation strategies to eliminate the FG hazard. The evaluation is an engineering study of mitigation concepts for FG generation, retention, and release behavior in Tanks SY-101, AN-103, AN 104, An-105, and Aw-101. Where possible, limited quantification of the effects of mitigation strategies on the FG hazard also is considered. The results obtained from quantification efforts discussed in this report should be considered as best-estimate values. Results and conclusions of this work are intended to help in establishing methodologies in the contractor's controls selection analysis to develop necessary safety controls for closing the FG unreviewed safety question. The general performance requirements of any mitigation scheme are discussed first

  5. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bull, A.; Owen, J.; Quirk, G.; G, Lewis; Rudge, A.; Woolsey, I.S.

    2012-09-01

    Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors (AGRs) operated in the UK by EDF Energy have once-through boilers, which deliver superheated steam at high temperature (∼500 deg. C) and pressure (∼150 bar) to the HP turbine. The boilers have either a serpentine or helical geometry for the tubing of the main heat transfer sections of the boiler and each individual tube is fabricated from mild steel, 9%Cr1%Mo and Type 316 austenitic stainless steel tubing. Type 316 austenitic stainless steel is used for the secondary (final) superheater and steam tailpipe sections of the boiler, which, during normal operation, should operate under dry, superheated steam conditions. This is achieved by maintaining a specified margin of superheat at the upper transition joint (UTJ) between the 9%Cr1%Mo primary superheater and the Type 316 secondary superheater sections of the boiler. Operating in this mode should eliminate the possibility of stress corrosion cracking of the Type 316 tube material on-load. In recent years, however, AGRs have suffered a variety of operational problems with their boilers that have made it difficult to maintain the specified superheat margin at the UTJ. In the case of helical boilers, the combined effects of carbon deposition on the gas side and oxide deposition on the waterside of the tubing have resulted in an increasing number of austenitic tubes operating with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence the possibility of wetting the austenitic section of the boiler. Some units with serpentine boilers have suffered creep-fatigue damage of the high temperature sections of the boiler, which currently necessitates capping the steam outlet temperature to prevent further damage. The reduction in steam outlet temperature has meant that there is an increased risk of operation with less than the specified superheat margin at the UTJ and hence stress corrosion cracking of the austenitic sections of the boiler. In order to establish the risk of stress

  6. Quantification of physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure in Alaska and benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, A. M.; Larsen, P.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Schweikert, A.; Strzepek, K.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change poses many risks and challenges for the Arctic and sub-Arctic, including threats to infrastructure. The safety and stability of infrastructure in this region can be impacted by many factors including increased thawing of permafrost soils, reduced coastline protection due to declining arctic sea ice, and changes in inland flooding. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is coordinating an effort to quantify physical and economic impacts of climate change on public infrastructure across the state of Alaska and estimate how global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation may avoid or reduce these impacts. This research builds on the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project developed for the contiguous U.S., which is described in an EPA report released in June 2015. We are using a multi-model analysis focused primarily on the impacts of changing permafrost, coastal erosion, and inland flooding on a range of infrastructure types, including transportation (e.g. roads, airports), buildings and harbors, energy sources and transmission, sewer and water systems, and others. This analysis considers multiple global GHG emission scenarios ranging from a business as usual future to significant global action. These scenarios drive climate projections through 2100 spanning a range of outcomes to capture variability amongst climate models. Projections are being combined with a recently developed public infrastructure database and integrated into a version of the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) we are modifying for use in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. The IPSS tool allows for consideration of both adaptation and reactive responses to climate change. Results of this work will address a gap in our understanding of climate change impacts in Alaska, provide estimates of the physical and economic damages we may expect with and without global GHG mitigation, and produce important insights about infrastructure vulnerabilities in response to

  7. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentham, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  8. Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

    2003-09-01

    Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

  9. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

    2011-01-01

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  10. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-07-15

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in different economic sectors: Mitigation measures, health co-benefits, knowledge gaps, and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jinghong; Hou, Hongli; Zhai, Yunkai; Woodward, Alistair; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kovats, Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Li, Liping; Song, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lei; Meng, Bohan; Liu, Xiaobo; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Jie; Liu, Qiyong

    2018-05-15

    To date, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mitigation strategies and the accompanying health co-benefits in different economic sectors have not been fully investigated. The purpose of this paper is to review comprehensively the evidence on GHG mitigation measures and the related health co-benefits, identify knowledge gaps, and provide recommendations to promote further development and implementation of climate change response policies. Evidence on GHG emissions, abatement measures and related health co-benefits has been observed at regional, national and global levels, involving both low- and high-income societies. GHG mitigation actions have mainly been taken in five sectors: energy generation, transport, food and agriculture, household and industry, consistent with the main sources of GHG emissions. GHGs and air pollutants to a large extent stem from the same sources and are inseparable in terms of their atmospheric evolution and effects on ecosystem; thus, GHG reductions are usually, although not always, estimated to have cost effective co-benefits for public health. Some integrated mitigation strategies involving multiple sectors, which tend to create greater health benefits. The pros and cons of different mitigation measures, issues with existing knowledge, priorities for research, and potential policy implications were also discussed. Findings from this study can play a role not only in motivating large GHG emitters to make decisive changes in GHG emissions, but also in facilitating cooperation at international, national and regional levels, to promote GHG mitigation policies that protect public health from climate change and air pollution simultaneously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2013-03-15

    The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

  13. Unintended possible consequences of fuel input taxes for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinz E. Klingelhöfer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Africa is planning to introduce a carbon tax as a Pigouvian measure for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, one of the tax bases designed as a fuel input tax. In this form, it is supposed to incentivise users to reduce and/or substitute fossil fuels, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions. Aim: This article examines how such a carbon tax regime may affect the individual willingness to invest in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies. Setting: Mathematical derivation, using methods of linear programming, duality theory and sensitivity analysis. Methods: By employing a two-step evaluation approach, it allows to identify the factors determining the maximum price an individual investor would pay for such an investment, given the conditions of imperfect markets. Results: This price ceiling depends on the (corrected net present values of the payments and on the interdependencies arising from changes in the optimal investment and production programmes. Although the well-established results of environmental economics usually can be confirmed for a single investment, increasing carbon taxes may entail sometimes contradictory and unexpected consequences for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions. Under certain circumstances, they may discourage such investments and, when still undertaken, even lead to higher emissions. However, these results can be interpreted in an economically comprehensible manner. Conclusion: Under the usually given conditions of imperfect markets, the impact of a carbon tax regime on individual investment decisions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not as straight forward as under the usually assumed, but unrealistically simplifying perfect market conditions. To avoid undesired and discouraging effects, policy makers cannot make solitary decisions, but have to take interdependencies on the addressee´s side into account. The individual investor

  14. Effect of farming practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of beef cattle production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, T T H; Doreau, M; Eugène, M; Corson, M S; Garcia-Launay, F; Chesneau, G; van der Werf, H M G

    2013-05-01

    This study evaluated effects of farming practice scenarios aiming to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent alternative land use on environmental impacts of a beef cattle production system using the life cycle assessment approach. The baseline scenario includes a standard cow-calf herd with finishing heifers based on grazing, and a standard bull-fattening herd using a diet mainly based on maize silage, corresponding to current farm characteristics and management by beef farmers in France. Alternative scenarios were developed with changes in farming practices. Some scenarios modified grassland management (S1: decreasing mineral N fertiliser on permanent grassland; S2: decreasing grass losses during grazing) or herd management (S3: underfeeding of heifers in winter; S4: fattening female calves instead of being reared at a moderate growth rate; S5: increasing longevity of cows from 7 to 9 years; S6: advancing first calving age from 3 to 2 years). Other scenarios replaced protein sources (S7: partially replacing a protein supplement by lucerne hay for the cow-calf herd; S8: replacing soya bean meal with rapeseed meal for the fattening herd) or increased n-3 fatty acid content using extruded linseed (S9). The combination of compatible scenarios S1, S2, S5, S6 and S8 was also studied (S10). The impacts, such as climate change (CC, not including CO2 emissions/sequestration of land use and land-use change, LULUC), CC/LULUC (including CO2 emissions of LULUC), cumulative energy demand, eutrophication (EP), acidification and land occupation (LO) were expressed per kg of carcass mass and per ha of land occupied. Compared with the baseline, the most promising practice to reduce impacts per kg carcass mass was S10 (all reduced by 13% to 28%), followed by S6 (by 8% to 10%). For other scenarios, impact reduction did not exceed 5%, except for EP (up to 11%) and LO (up to 10%). Effects of changes in farming practices (the scenarios) on environmental impacts varied

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginzburg, V.

    1998-01-01

    In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

  16. Method and system for gas flow mitigation of molecular contamination of optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Gildardo; Johnson, Terry; Arienti, Marco; Harb, Salam; Klebanoff, Lennie; Garcia, Rudy; Tahmassebpur, Mohammed; Scott, Sarah

    2018-01-23

    A computer-implemented method for determining an optimized purge gas flow in a semi-conductor inspection metrology or lithography apparatus, comprising receiving a permissible contaminant mole fraction, a contaminant outgassing flow rate associated with a contaminant, a contaminant mass diffusivity, an outgassing surface length, a pressure, a temperature, a channel height, and a molecular weight of a purge gas, calculating a flow factor based on the permissible contaminant mole fraction, the contaminant outgassing flow rate, the channel height, and the outgassing surface length, comparing the flow factor to a predefined maximum flow factor value, calculating a minimum purge gas velocity and a purge gas mass flow rate from the flow factor, the contaminant mass diffusivity, the pressure, the temperature, and the molecular weight of the purge gas, and introducing the purge gas into the semi-conductor inspection metrology or lithography apparatus with the minimum purge gas velocity and the purge gas flow rate.

  17. Greenhouse gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land use change and fertilization scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castanheira, Érica Geraldes; Acevedo, Helmer; Freire, Fausto

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A comprehensive evaluation of alternative LUC and fertilization schemes. • The GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. • Colombian palm area expansion resulted in negative or low palm oil GHG intensity. • GHG emissions from plantation vary significantly with N 2 O emission parameters. - Abstract: The main goal of this article is to assess the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of palm oil produced in a specific plantation and mill in Colombia. A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of alternative land use change (LUC) scenarios (forest, shrubland, savanna and cropland conversion) and fertilization schemes (four synthetic and one organic nitrogen-fertilizer) was performed. A sensitivity analysis to field nitrous oxide emission calculation, biogas management options at mill, time horizon considered for global warming and multifunctionality approach were also performed. The results showed that the GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. Significant differences were observed between the LUC scenarios (−3.0 to 5.3 kg CO 2 eq kg −1 palm oil). The highest result is obtained if tropical rainforest is converted and the lowest if palm is planted on previous cropland, savanna and shrubland, in which almost all LUC from Colombian oil palm area expansion occurred between 1990 and 2009. Concerning plantation and oil extraction, it was shown that field nitrous oxide emissions and biogas management options have a high influence on GHG emissions

  18. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  19. Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kok, Robert; Annema, Jan Anne; Wee, Bert van

    2011-01-01

    A review is given of methodological practices for ex ante cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of transport greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures, e.g. fuel economy and CO 2 standards for road vehicles in the US and EU. Besides the fundamental differences between different types of policies and abatement options which inherently result in different CEA outcomes, differences in methodological choices and assumptions are another important source of variation in CEA outcomes. Fourteen methodological issues clustered into six groups are identified on which thirty-three selected studies are systematically reviewed. The potential variation between lower and upper cost-effectiveness estimates for GHG mitigation measures in transport, resulting from different methodological choices and assumptions, lies in the order of $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. The practise of using CEA for policy-making could improve considerably by clearly indicating the specific purpose of the CEA and its strengths and limitations for policy decisions. Another improvement is related to the dominant approach in transport GHG mitigation studies: the bottom-up financial technical approach which assesses isolated effects, implying considerable limitations for policy-making. A shift to welfare-economic approaches using a hybrid model has the potential to establish an improved assessment of transport GHG mitigation measures based on realistic market responses and behavioural change. - Highlights: ► We identify fourteen important methodological issues clustered into six groups. ► We systematically review thirty-three selected transport GHG mitigation studies. ► Methodological choices can lead to a difference by up to $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. ► The dominant bottom-up approach has limitations for policy-making. ► Welfare-economic approaches could improve cost-effectiveness analysis.

  20. Study on introduction scenario of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor hydrogen cogeneration system (GTHTR300C). Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishihara, Tetsuo; Takeda, Tetsuaki

    2005-09-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is carrying out the research and development of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor hydrogen cogeneration system (GTHTR300C) aiming at the practical use around 2030. Preconditions of GTHTR300C introduction are the increase of hydrogen demand and the needs of new nuclear power plants. In order to establish the introduction scenario, it should be clarified that the operational status of existing nuclear power plants, the introduction number of fuel cell vehicles as a main user of hydrogen and the capability of hydrogen supply by existing plants. In this report, estimation of the nuclear power plants that will be decommissioned with a high possibility by 2030 and selection of the model district where the GTHTR300C can be introduced as an alternative system are conducted. Then the hydrogen demand and the capability of hydrogen supply in this district are investigated and the hydrogen supply scenario in 2030 is considered. (author)

  1. Method for evaluating natural gas demand scenarios (Demangas Project); Metodologia para avaliacao de cenarios de demanda pelo gas natural (Projeto Demangas)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindau, Luis Antonio [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Sistemas de Transportes; Santos, Gilberto T. dos; Silva, Silvio C. da; Ribeiro, Jose Luis D.; Fogliatto, Flavio S. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Lab. de Otimizacao de Produtos e Processos

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents the methodology developed for the evaluation of the existing and potential market for natural gas in the industrial, automotive, residential and commercial sectors of Rio Grande do Sul. The methodology is based upon a marketing research framework and consists of the definition of the problem; application of qualitative, quantitative and stated-preference enquiries; review of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice; and, also, interviews with specialists. The methodology is consolidated in four software that enable the simulation of different demand scenarios of natural gas up to the year 2010. The development of this methodology comprised the participation of more than 1,000 potential users of natural gas and allowed the state company in charge of distributing natural gas to: structure the problem of forecasting the consumption of natural gas within a new context of competition in the energy industry; help the formulation of the strategic plan of the company with regard to investment strategies and incrementing the number of clients; and propose marketing efforts to promote the adoption of natural gas as an alternative energy source. (author)

  2. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  3. Greenhouse gas mitigation in animal production: towards an integrated life cycle sustainability assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, de I.J.M.; Cederberg, C.; Eady, S.; Gollnow, S.; Kristensen, T.; Macleod, M.; Meul, M.; Nemecek, T.; Phong, L.T.; Thoma, G.; Werf, H.M.G.; Williams, A.G.; Zonderland-Thomassen, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The animal food chain contributes significantly to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We explored studies that addressed options to mitigate GHG emissions in the animal production chain and concluded that most studies focused on production systems in developed countries and on a single GHG. They

  4. Risks and mitigation options for on-site storage of wastewater from shale gas and tight oil development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuwayama, Yusuke; Roeshot, Skyler; Krupnick, Alan; Richardson, Nathan; Mares, Jan

    2017-01-01

    We provide a critical review of existing research and information regarding the sources of risk associated with on-site shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage in the United States, the gaps that exist in knowledge regarding these risks, policy and technology options for addressing the risks, and the relative merits of those options. Specifically, we (a) identify the potential risks to human and ecological health associated with on-site storage of shale gas and tight oil wastewater via a literature survey and analysis of data on wastewater spills and regulatory violations, (b) provide a detailed description of government regulations or industry actions that may mitigate these risks to human and ecological health, and (c) provide a critical review of this information to help generate progress toward concrete action to make shale gas and tight oil development more sustainable and more acceptable to a skeptical public, while keeping costs down. - Highlights: • We review current research/information on shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage. • Pit overflows, tank overfills, and liner malfunctions are common spill causes. • Tanks lead to smaller and less frequent spills than pits, but are not a magic bullet. • State regulations for on-site oil and gas wastewater storage are very heterogeneous.

  5. Rate theory scenarios study on fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under LOCA conditions in LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miao, Yinbin; Gamble, Kyle A.; Andersson, David; Mei, Zhi-Gang; Yacout, Abdellatif M.

    2018-01-01

    Fission gas behavior of U3Si2 under various loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs) was simulated using rate theory. A rate theory model for U3Si2 that covers both steady-state operation and power transients was developed for the GRASS-SST code based on existing research reactor/ion irradiation experimental data and theoretical predictions of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The steady-state and LOCA condition parameters were either directly provided or inspired by BISON simulations. Due to the absence of in-pile experiment data for U3Si2's fuel performance under LWR conditions at this stage of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) development, a variety of LOCA scenarios were taken into consideration to comprehensively and conservatively evaluate the fission gas behavior of U3Si2 during a LOCA.

  6. Greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential of changes in water management for two rice sites in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begum, Khadiza; Kuhnert, Matthias; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Smith, Pete; Ogle, Stephen; Parton, William; Kader, Abdul; Sleutel, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Bangladesh and rice production is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions. This study considers measurements from two test sites, situated in Mymensingh (Bangladesh), to calibrate and validate the biogeochemical model DailyDayCent and estimate the mitigation potential of alternative management practices at the sites. There are two different N application treatments on the two test sites, which are on the first site a control with no N application and a mineral fertilizer application (120 kg N ha-1) and on the second site only a mineral fertilizer application (110 kg N ha-1). For mitigation, the water management is modified in a modelling approach to estimate the mitigation potential for reducing GHG emissions. The model shows partial agreement with the observations. The modifications to the water management, by changing from permanent wetting to alternate wetting, shows a decrease in GHG emissions of up to 46 % and 37 % for the two test sites, respectively. These tests enable an optimization of the management options to reduce the GHG emissions while maintaining yields.

  7. The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

    2004-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

  8. Mitigation of Transient Overvoltages Generated Due to Switching Operations and Lightning in Gas-insulated Substation (GIS Without Extra Limiter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tavakoli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Gas-insulated substations (GIS have different specifications in proportion to air-insulated substations. Transformer failures related to lightning and switching are often reported in the gas insulated substation (GIS. This problem is the voltage magnifications due to reflections of switching and lightning surges at various junctions within the GIS. thereby overvoltages in GIS are more important than air-insulated substation. There are methods to suppress the stresses created by lightning and switching. However, these methods are suitable before installing the substation and during the substation design period. This paper presents feasible methods for mitigation of the overvoltage magnitude. The advantages of the proposed methods are their simplicity and low cost for implantation along with producing minimal changes in the installed GIS.

  9. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

  10. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions from willow-based electricity: a scenario analysis for Portugal and The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rebelo de Mira, R.; Kroeze, C.

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants using willow as fuel compared to those using fossil fuels. More specifically, we quantify emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils on which willow is grown, and compare these to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil

  12. The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann; Sander, Bjoern Ole; de Neergaard, Andreas

    2018-01-15

    Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation in rice production. Whereas several studies have focused on mid-season drainage (MD) to mitigate GHG emissions, early-season drainage (ED) varying in timing and duration has not been extensively studied. However, such ED periods could potentially be very effective since initial available C levels (and thereby the potential for methanogenesis) can be very high in paddy systems with rice straw incorporation. This study tested the effectiveness of seven drainage regimes varying in their timing and duration (combinations of ED and MD) to mitigate CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in a 101-day growth chamber experiment. Emissions were considerably reduced by early-season drainage compared to both conventional continuous flooding (CF) and the MD drainage regime. The results suggest that ED+MD drainage may have the potential to reduce CH 4 emissions and yield-scaled GWP by 85-90% compared to CF and by 75-77% compared to MD only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH 4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (pemissions were small and not significantly affected by ED. It is concluded that ED+MD drainage might be an effective low-tech option for small-scale farmers to reduce GHG emissions and save water while maintaining yield. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Nuclear power for greenhouse gas mitigation under the Kyoto protocol: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.

    2000-01-01

    At the 43rd regular session of the IAEA General Conference, Member States requested the IAEA to help countries in assessing nuclear power's role in light of global environmental challenges and energy needs. Such assistance should include support for implementing national case studies, and facilitating access to relevant information about nuclear power's role in achieving sustainable development in developing countries and in mitigating GHG emissions. The dissemination of information on CDM is of particular importance to developing countries, so as to enable Member States interested in the mechanism to take an active and informed role in the debate regarding the Kyoto Protocol and eligible CDM technologies. Therefore, the Secretariat organized a series of information seminars, workshops and training courses for Member States on the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation and Emissions Trading with particular emphasis on the potential role of nuclear power for GHG mitigation. On request, the Secretariat also provided training and assistance to several Member States in the preparation of national case studies that explore the potential role of nuclear power as a CDM technology. These case studies will be presented by the respective national study teams during this side event at the 44th IAEA General Conference. Within the general criteria included in the Kyoto Protocol, the decision on which technologies are eligible for GHG mitigation under the flexibility mechanisms is a sovereign decision of each country

  14. An evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation options for coal-fired power plants in the US Great Lakes States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froese, Robert E.; Shonnard, David R.; Miller, Chris A.; Koers, Ken P.; Johnson, Dana M.

    2010-01-01

    We assessed options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in the US Great Lakes States, a region heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants. A proposed 600 MW power plant in northern Lower Michigan, USA provided context for our evaluation. Options to offset fossil CO 2 emissions by 20% included biomass fuel substitution from (1) forest residuals, (2) short-rotation woody crops, or (3) switchgrass; (4) biologic sequestration in forest plantations; and (5) geologic sequestration using CO 2 capture. Review of timber product output data, land cover data, and expected energy crop productivity on idle agriculture land within 120 km of the plant revealed that biomass from forestry residuals has the potential to offset 6% and from energy crops 27% of the annual fossil fuel requirement. Furthermore, annual forest harvest in the region is only 26% of growth and the surplus represents a large opportunity for forest products and bioenergy applications. We used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare mitigation options, using fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions per unit electricity generation as criteria. LCA results revealed that co-firing with forestry residuals is the most attractive option and geologic sequestration is the least attractive option, based on the two criteria. Biologic sequestration is intermediate but likely infeasible because of very large land area requirements. Our study revealed that biomass feedstock potentials from land and forest resources are not limiting mitigation activities, but the most practical approach is likely a combination of options that optimize additional social, environmental and economic criteria.

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-Gorriz, B.; Soto-García, M.; Martínez-Alvarez, V.

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is leading to a water resources decrease in the Mediterranean basin, where future farming resilience depends on incorporating alternative water sources and improving water-energy use efficiency. This paper assesses water and energy consumption when natural water sources are partially replaced by desalinated sea water. Initially, energy consumption, water supply and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions were recorded for the current farming practices in SE (southeast) Spain. The results of our study indicate that citrus orchards have the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions. Annual vegetables were the least energy efficient crops. Subsequently, two alternative water supply scenarios were analysed, in which the reduction of natural water resources associated to climate change was compensated with desalinated sea water. The use of 16.8% of desalinated seawater would increase energy consumption by 32.4% and GHG emissions by 19.6%, whereas for the use of 26.5% of desalinated seawater such increases would amount to 50.0% and 30.3%, respectively. Therefore maintaining irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions by incorporating high energy demanding non-traditional water sources could negatively contribute to combat global warming. - Highlights: • Water supply, energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in irrigated agriculture are very connected. • The use of desalinated sea water will increase the energy consumption, and GHG emissions will rise. • The use of non-traditional water resources enhances global warming processes. • Citrus orchards are the less sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios. • Artichoke is the most sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios

  17. Biochars mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and bioaccumulation of potentially toxic elements and arsenic speciation in Phaseolus vulgaris L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Muhammad; Li, Gang; Khan, Sardar; Chi, Qiaoqiao; Xu, Yaoyang; Zhu, Yongguan

    2017-08-01

    Anthropogenic and natural activities can lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and discharge of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) into soil environment. Biochar amendment to soils is a cost-effective technology and sustainable approach used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, improve phytoremediation, and minimize the health risks associated with consumption of PTE-contaminated vegetables. Greenhouse pot experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of peanut shell biochar (PNB) and sewage sludge biochar (SSB) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, plant growth, PTE bioaccumulation, and arsenic (As) speciation in bean plants. Results indicated that amendments of PNB and SSB increased plant biomass production by increasing soil fertility and reducing bioavailability of PTEs. Addition of biochars also increased soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and ammonium-nitrogen (NH 4 -N) but decreased available concentrations of PTEs such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and As. The concentration of nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 - -N) was also decreased in biochar-amended soils. In addition, PNB and SSB amendments significantly (P Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions were significantly (P greenhouse gas emissions and PTE bioaccumulation as well as arsenic speciation in P. vulgaris L.

  18. Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

    2010-07-01

    For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

  19. The limits of bioenergy for mitigating global lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.

    OpenAIRE

    Staples, Mark; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven

    2017-01-01

    In this Article we quantify the optimal allocation and deployment of global bioenergy resources to offset fossil fuels in 2050. We find that bioenergy could reduce lifecycle emissions attributable to combustion-fired electricity and heat, and liquid transportation fuels, by a maximum of 4.9-38.7 Gt CO2e, or 9-68%, and that offsetting fossil fuel-fired electricity and heat with bioenergy is on average 1.6-3.9 times more effective for emissions mitigation than offsetting fossil fuelderived ...

  20. Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, N.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lasnier, C. J.; Moyer, R. A.; Parks, P. B.; Shiraki, D.

    2015-10-01

    Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.

  1. Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollmann, E. M.; Moyer, R. A.; Commaux, N.; Shiraki, D.; Eidietis, N. W.; Parks, P. B.; Lasnier, C. J.

    2015-01-01

    Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, Longlong [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Ti, Chaopu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Li, Bolun [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Xia, Yongqiu [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Xiaoyuan, E-mail: yanxy@issas.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2016-06-15

    Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO{sub 2-NEB} and Nr{sub -NEB}), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH{sub 4} emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH{sub 4} emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH{sub 3} volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404–701) Tg CO{sub 2} eq GHG and 10 (7.4–12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001–2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70–555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7 Tg CO{sub 2} eq yr{sup −1} and 2.2 Tg Nr-N yr{sup −1} could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Longlong; Ti, Chaopu; Li, Bolun; Xia, Yongqiu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

    2016-01-01

    Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO 2-NEB and Nr -NEB ), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH 4 emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH 4 emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH 3 volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404–701) Tg CO 2 eq GHG and 10 (7.4–12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001–2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70–555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7 Tg CO 2 eq yr −1 and 2.2 Tg Nr-N yr −1 could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize farmers to gradually adopt knowledge

  4. Levelized Costs for Nuclear, Gas and Coal for Electricity, under the Mexican Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palacios, J.C.; Alonso, G.; Ramirez, R.; Gomez, A.; Ortiz, J.; Longoria, L.C.

    2004-10-06

    In the case of new nuclear power stations, it is necessary to pay special attention to the financial strategy that will be applied, time of construction, investment cost, and the discount and return rate. The levelized cost quantifies the unitary cost of the electricity (the kWh) generated during the lifetime of the nuclear power plant; and allows the immediate comparison with the cost of other alternative technologies. The present paper shows levelized cost for different nuclear technologies and it provides comparison among them as well as with gas and coal electricity plants. For the calculations we applied our own methodology to evaluate the levelized cost considering investment, fuel and operation and maintenance costs, making assumptions for the Mexican market, and taking into account the gas prices projections. The study also shows comparisons using different discount rates (5% and 10%), and some comparisons between our results and an OECD 1998 study. The results are i n good agreement and shows that nuclear option is cost competitive in Mexico on the basis of levelized costs.

  5. Levelized Costs for Nuclear, Gas and Coal for Electricity, under the Mexican Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios, J.C.; Alonso, G.; Ramirez, R.; Gomez, A.; Ortiz, J.; Longoria, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    In the case of new nuclear power stations, it is necessary to pay special attention to the financial strategy that will be applied, time of construction, investment cost, and the discount and return rate. The levelized cost quantifies the unitary cost of the electricity (the kWh) generated during the lifetime of the nuclear power plant; and allows the immediate comparison with the cost of other alternative technologies. The present paper shows levelized cost for different nuclear technologies and it provides comparison among them as well as with gas and coal electricity plants. For the calculations we applied our own methodology to evaluate the levelized cost considering investment, fuel and operation and maintenance costs, making assumptions for the Mexican market, and taking into account the gas prices projections. The study also shows comparisons using different discount rates (5% and 10%), and some comparisons between our results and an OECD 1998 study. The results are i n good agreement and shows that nuclear option is cost competitive in Mexico on the basis of levelized costs

  6. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2010-01-01

    Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

  7. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Water with Uranium Metal in K Basins Sludge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2010-01-29

    Means to decrease the rate of hydrogen gas generation from the chemical reaction of uranium metal with water were identified by surveying the technical literature. The underlying chemistry and potential side reactions were explored by conducting 61 principal experiments. Several methods achieved significant hydrogen gas generation rate mitigation. Gas-generating side reactions from interactions of organics or sludge constituents with mitigating agents were observed. Further testing is recommended to develop deeper knowledge of the underlying chemistry and to advance the technology aturation level. Uranium metal reacts with water in K Basin sludge to form uranium hydride (UH3), uranium dioxide or uraninite (UO2), and diatomic hydrogen (H2). Mechanistic studies show that hydrogen radicals (H·) and UH3 serve as intermediates in the reaction of uranium metal with water to produce H2 and UO2. Because H2 is flammable, its release into the gas phase above K Basin sludge during sludge storage, processing, immobilization, shipment, and disposal is a concern to the safety of those operations. Findings from the technical literature and from experimental investigations with simple chemical systems (including uranium metal in water), in the presence of individual sludge simulant components, with complete sludge simulants, and with actual K Basin sludge are presented in this report. Based on the literature review and intermediate lab test results, sodium nitrate, sodium nitrite, Nochar Acid Bond N960, disodium hydrogen phosphate, and hexavalent uranium [U(VI)] were tested for their effects in decreasing the rate of hydrogen generation from the reaction of uranium metal with water. Nitrate and nitrite each were effective, decreasing hydrogen generation rates in actual sludge by factors of about 100 to 1000 when used at 0.5 molar (M) concentrations. Higher attenuation factors were achieved in tests with aqueous solutions alone. Nochar N960, a water sorbent, decreased hydrogen

  8. Identification studies about take measures for mitigate of gas emissions greenhouse effect in energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-11-01

    In the Unit Nations Convention about Climatic change has get stability of greenhouse effects in atmosphere concentrations. In the framework to Uruguay Project URU/95/631 have been defined the need to identify, measures, practices, process and technologies for reduce some emissions furthermore in Energy sector. Emission impact, cost-benefit, direct or iundirect, national programs, factibility such as social, politics and Institutional agreements was considered in the present work. It was given emissions proyected for 15 years period 1999-2013 of the following atmospheric pollutants: carbon dioxide,carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and methane.Eight stages was applied the emission evaluation: natural gas; without natural gas; transport; industrial; Montevidean bus- car demand; natural gas uses in bus-taxi; nitrogen oxides control in thermic centrals; catalytic converters in gasoline cars

  9. Mitigation - how to buy time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunasekera, D.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: There is growing consensus in the global scientific community that human induced greenhouse gas emissions have increased the atmospheric concentration of these gases which has led, and will continue to lead to changes in regional and global climate. Climate change is projected to impact on Australian and global economic, biophysical, social and environmental systems. The impacts of climate change can be reduced by implementing a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The optimal policy response will depend on the relative costs and benefits of climate change impacts, and mitigation and adaptation responses. The focus in this presentation is to identify the key determinants that can reduce the cost of international mitigation responses. It is important to recognise that since cumulative emissions are the primary driver of atmospheric concentrations, mitigation policies should be assessed against their capacity to reduce cumulative emissions overtime, rather than at given time points only. If global greenhouse gas abatement costs are to be minimised, it is desirable that the coverage of countries, emission sources and technologies that are a part of any multilateral effort be as wide as possible. In this context the development and diffusion of clean technologies globally can play a key role in the future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, according to scenarios analysed by ABARE. Furthermore, technology 'push' (for example, research and development policies) and 'pull' (for example, emission trading) policies will be required to achieve such an outcome

  10. Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emission Evaluation Scenarios of Mea Fah Luang University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laingoen Onn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Thailand, quantity of the educational institutes building shared one fourth of commercial building. Among the energy consumption and conservation in the building in Thailand are mostly study in typical office and resident building. Mea Fah Luang University (MFU was selected to represent the educational institutes building where located in the northern part of Thailand. The average temperature in the northern is lower than other parts of Thailand. This study was firstly collected the data about quantity and behaviour of energy consumption in MFU based on the energy audit handbook. Although MFU is located in the northern of Thailand. The highest energy consumption is in the part of air condition. When the energy efficiency appliances and energy conservation building are implemented, the cost of energy will be saved around 15,867,960 Baht. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emission is also reduced about 72.01 kg CO2, equivalent/m2/year.

  11. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Austria's Long and Expensive Journey to Buenos Aires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper the following topics are worked out, with special emphasis on Austria: past trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions, current legal situation, the cost of emission reduction, effective set of measures, the role of flexible instruments, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism, Emission Trading and the journey ahead. (author)

  12. Optimizing of operational strategies in producting gas fields mitigating induced seismic risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chitu, A.G.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Candela, T.G.G.; Osinga, S.; Kraaijpoel, D.A.; Wassing, B.B.T.

    2017-01-01

    Pore pressure changes caused by the production of gas from reservoir rocks result in reservoir compaction, stress changes on faults, potential fault reactivation and related seismic activity. This seismic activity is expected to be affected by the amount of pressure change, the spatial distribution

  13. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

  14. Sectoral crediting mechanisms for greenhouse gas mitigation. Institutional and operational issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, R. [International Energy Agency IEA, Paris (France); Ellis, J. [Environment Directorate, International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2006-05-15

    Guiding policy choices requires a systematic comparison of options. In the case of a hypothetical policy instrument, e.g. sectoral crediting, such systematic comparison is difficult as different options may not be strictly comparable. For instance, not all options may be easily applied to a given sector (e.g. an intensity-based crediting may hardly be implemented to a government policy seeking to substitute public transport for personal vehicles); the policy-based SCM may be the only practical option in this case and comparison is therefore moot. Also, not all countries may have the institutional capacity to implement all three options at the same scale. Last, the ability of each option to deliver real reductions hinges on the 'additionality' of the sector's efforts and on the stringency of the baseline. Unfortunately, there is no universally recognised method to define additionality and to determine a baseline. This paper nonetheless offers some insights on how each potential SCM option may fare with respect to the following criteria: Environmental effectiveness: can this option trigger real reductions where implemented?; Addressing competitiveness concerns; Administrative cost and feasibility: how demanding is the mechanism in terms of monitoring, review and, possibly enforcement policy?; Economic efficiency: to what extent does the mechanism lead to the adoption of the least-cost mitigation options in the sector? An initial assessment of each option along these criteria is provided in the conclusion section. This paper explores potential SCMs along several lines. Section 2 draws lessons from existing mechanisms; section 3 considers several dimensions to be considered for baselines; section 4 discusses how SCM could be implemented to provide effective incentives to mitigation; section 5 explores international governance issues. Concluding remarks are presented in section 6.

  15. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  16. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry [and others

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  17. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  18. CO_2-mitigation options for the offshore oil and gas sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter; Maréchal, François; Elmegaard, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The possibilities for reducing offshore CO_2-emissions, by CO_2-capture, waste heat recovery and electrification are assessed. • Multi-objective optimisation, process modelling, economic and environmental analyses are used for evaluating system designs. • A reduction of more than 15% of the total CO_2-emissions can be achieved for the present case study. • High sensitivity of the avoidance costs to the natural gas price and CO_2-tax. - Abstract: The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process leading to the production of CO_2 and methane, discharged into the atmosphere, and of chemicals, rejected into the sea. The taxation of these emissions, in Norway, has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three are assessed in this paper: (i) the implementation of waste heat recovery, (ii) the installation of a CO_2-capture unit and (iii) the platform electrification. A North Sea platform is taken as case study, and these three options are modelled, analysed and compared, using thermodynamic, economic and environmental indicators. The results indicate the benefits of all these options, as the total CO_2-emissions can be reduced by more than 15% in all cases, while the avoidance costs vary widely and are highly sensitive to the natural gas price and CO_2-tax.

  19. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  20. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  1. CO2-mitigation options for the offshore oil and gas sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2016-01-01

    , using thermodynamic, economic and environmental indicators. The results indicate the benets of all these options, as the total CO2-emissions can be reduced by more than 15% in all cases, while the avoidance costs vary widely and are highly sensitive to the natural gas price and CO2-tax.......-effcient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three are assessed in this paper: (i) the implementation of waste heat recovery, (ii) the installation of a CO2-capture unit and (iii) the platform electrication. A North Sea platform is taken as casestudy, and these three options are modelled, analysed and compared...

  2. Understanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarze, Reimund; Niles, John O; Olander, Jacob

    2002-08-15

    A major concern about land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the potential for leakage. Leakage refers to a net increase of greenhouse-gas emissions in an area outside the project resulting from the CDM activity. This paper provides an overview of leakage, its definitions and its causes. It describes ways that LULUCF projects may suffer from leakage and attempts to assess the magnitude of leakage risks for different LULUCF project types. It also summarizes some of the approaches, both in terms of policies and project development, to address LULUCF leakage.

  3. A breakthrough in flue gas cleanup, CO2 mitigation and H2S removal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Wolf; Wasas, James; Stenger, Raymond; Howell, Evan

    2010-09-15

    SWAPSOL Corp. is developing commercial processes around a newly discovered reaction that reduces H2S below detectable levels while reacting with CO2 to form water, sulfur and carsuls, a carbon-sulfur polymer. The Stenger-Wasas Process (SWAP) stands to simplify sulfur removal technology as it consumes CO2 in an exothermic reaction. The SWAP has applications in landfill, sour, flue and Claus tail gas cleanup and may replace Claus technology. Destruction of waste hydrocarbons provides a source of H2S. The primary reactions and variants have been independently verified and the chemical kinetics determined by a third party laboratory.

  4. Use of gas-phase ethanol to mitigate extreme UV/water oxidation of extreme UV optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klebanoff, L. E.; Malinowski, M. E.; Clift, W. M.; Steinhaus, C.; Grunow, P.

    2004-03-01

    A technique is described that uses a gas-phase species to mitigate the oxidation of a Mo/Si multilayer optic caused by either extreme UV (EUV) or electron-induced dissociation of adsorbed water vapor. It is found that introduction of ethanol (EtOH) into a water-rich gas-phase environment inhibits oxidation of the outermost Si layer of the Mo/Si EUV reflective coating. Auger electron spectroscopy, sputter Auger depth profiling, EUV reflectivity, and photocurrent measurements are presented that reveal the EUV/water- and electron/water-derived optic oxidation can be suppressed at the water partial pressures used in the tests (~2×10-7-2×10-5 Torr). The ethanol appears to function differently in two time regimes. At early times, ethanol decomposes on the optic surface, providing reactive carbon atoms that scavenge reactive oxygen atoms before they can oxidize the outermost Si layer. At later times, the reactive carbon atoms form a thin (~5 Å), possibly self-limited, graphitic layer that inhibits water adsorption on the optic surface. .

  5. Quantifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Methane Emissions from Super-emitters in the Oil and Gas Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, David Richard

    Methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) supply chain reduce potential climate benefits of natural gas as a replacement for other fossil fuels that emit more carbon dioxide per energy produced. O&G facilities have skewed emission rate distributions with a small fraction of sites contributing the majority of emissions. Knowledge of the identity and cause of these high emission facilities, referred to as super-emitters or fat-tail sources, is critical for reducing supply chain emissions. This dissertation addresses the quantification of super-emitter emissions, assessment of their prevalence and relationship to site characteristics, and mitigation with continuous leak detection systems. Chapter 1 summarizes the state of the knowledge of O&G methane emissions. Chapter 2 constructs a spatially-resolved emission inventory to estimate total and O&G methane emissions in the Barnett Shale as part of a coordinated research campaign using multiple top-down and bottom-up methods to quantify emissions. The emission inventory accounts for super-emitters with two-phase Monte Carlo simulations that combine site measurements collected with two approaches: unbiased sampling and targeted sampling of super-emitters. More comprehensive activity data and the inclusion of super-emitters, which account for 19% of O&G emissions, produces a emission inventory that is not statistically different than top-down regional emission estimates. Chapter 3 describes a helicopter-based survey of over 8,000 well pads in seven basins with infrared optical gas imaging to assess high emission sources. Four percent of sites are observed to have high emissions with over 90% of observed sources from tanks. The occurrence of high emissions is weakly correlated to site parameters and the best statistical model explains only 14% of variance, which demonstrates that the occurrence of super-emitters is primarily stochastic. Chapter 4 presents a Gaussian dispersion model for optimizing the placement of

  6. Renewable energy development in China: Resource assessment, technology status, and greenhouse gas mitigation potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Y.; Renne, O.D. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Junfeng, Li [Energy Research Institute, Beijing (China)

    1996-12-31

    China, which has pursued aggressive policies to encourage economic development, could experience the world`s fastest growth in energy consumption over the next two decades. China has become the third largest energy user in the world since 1990 when primary energy consumption reached 960 million tons of coal equivalent (tce). Energy use is increasing at an annual rate of 6-7% despite severe infrastructure and capital constraints on energy sector development. Energy consumption in China is heavily dominated by coal, and fossil fuels provide up to 95% of all commercial energy use. Coal currently accounts for 77% of total primary energy use; oil, 16%; hydropower, 5%; and natural gas, 2%. Coal is expected to continue providing close to three-quarters of all energy consumed, and the amount of coal used is expected to triple by year 2020. Currently, renewable energy resources (except for hydropower) account for only a fraction of total energy consumption. However, the estimated growth in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as serious local and regional environmental pollution problems caused by combustion of fossil fuels, provides strong arguments for the development of renewable energy resources. Renewable energy potential in China is significantly greater than that indicated by the current level of use. With a clear policy goal and consistent efforts from the Government of China, renewables can play a far larger role in its future energy supply.

  7. Intelligent Bioreactor Management Information System (IBM-IS) for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul Imhoff; Ramin Yazdani; Don Augenstein; Harold Bentley; Pei Chiu

    2010-04-30

    Methane is an important contributor to global warming with a total climate forcing estimated to be close to 20% that of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the past two decades. The largest anthropogenic source of methane in the US is 'conventional' landfills, which account for over 30% of anthropogenic emissions. While controlling greenhouse gas emissions must necessarily focus on large CO2 sources, attention to reducing CH4 emissions from landfills can result in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at low cost. For example, the use of 'controlled' or bioreactor landfilling has been estimated to reduce annual US greenhouse emissions by about 15-30 million tons of CO2 carbon (equivalent) at costs between $3-13/ton carbon. In this project we developed or advanced new management approaches, landfill designs, and landfill operating procedures for bioreactor landfills. These advances are needed to address lingering concerns about bioreactor landfills (e.g., efficient collection of increased CH4 generation) in the waste management industry, concerns that hamper bioreactor implementation and the consequent reductions in CH4 emissions. Collectively, the advances described in this report should result in better control of bioreactor landfills and reductions in CH4 emissions. Several advances are important components of an Intelligent Bioreactor Management Information System (IBM-IS).

  8. Methodological issues in developing a community forestry greenhouse gas emissions mitigation project in Mancherial forest division of Andhra Pradesh, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, I.K.; Hegde, G.T.; Sudha, P.; Ravindranath, N.H.

    2006-01-01

    There are several contentious issues related to forestry mitigation projects. The special report of the IPCC and literature published so far have shown that permanence, leakage, baseline establishment, measurement, monitoring, etc., could be addressed satisfactorily using existing scientific methods and accounting rules. To understand the methodological issues of developing community forestry projects, a case study was conducted in Mancherial forest division of Adilabad district in Andhra Pradesh, India. This paper addresses: the setting of project boundaries, baseline selection, establishment of additionality and the calculation of carbon sequestration as a result of the project, prior to project implementation. The steps involved in development of the project and the different methods used for establishing baseline, estimating leakage and transaction cost of developing a community forestry project are presented. The stock is projected to increase by 1480 x 10 3 t C during 2000-2012 over the baseline scenario under the modeling approach and the cost of establishing a baseline and project formulation for a project extending over 32,956 ha is estimated to be US$ 1.25 ha -1 and US$ 4 t C -1

  9. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quant......The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed...... components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services....

  10. Short-term effects of CO2 leakage on the soil bacterial community in a simulated gas leakage scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing; Zhang, Wangyuan; Zhang, Shaoliang; Zhu, Qianlin; Feng, Qiyan; Chen, Fu

    2017-01-01

    The technology of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic emissions with unique advantages. However, the potential risk of gas leakage from CO 2 sequestration and utilization processes has attracted considerable attention. Moreover, leakage might threaten soil ecosystems and thus cannot be ignored. In this study, a simulation experiment of leakage from CO 2 geological storage was designed to investigate the short-term effects of different CO 2 leakage concentration (from 400 g m -2 day -1 to 2,000 g m -2 day -1 ) on soil bacterial communities. A shunt device and adjustable flow meter were used to control the amount of CO 2 injected into the soil. Comparisons were made between soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community diversity before and after injecting different CO 2 concentrations. Increasing CO 2 concentration decreased the soil pH, and the largest variation ranged from 8.15 to 7.29 ( p soil CO 2 concentration increased. The dominant phylum in the soil samples was Proteobacteria , whose proportion rose rapidly from 28.85% to 67.93%. In addition, the proportion of Acidobacteria decreased from 19.64% to 9.29% ( p soil ecosystems.

  11. Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the AV Miljø Landfill, Denmark: 1. System design and gas distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassini, Filippo; Scheutz, Charlotte; Skov, Bent Henning

    2017-01-01

    Greenhouse gas mitigation at landfills by methane oxidation in engineered biocover systems is believed to be a cost effective technology, but so far a full quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the technology in full scale has only been carried out in a few cases. A third generation semi-p...

  12. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from reed canary grass in paludiculture: effect of groundwater level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karki, Sandhya; Elsgaard, Lars; Audet, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    below the soil surface. Gross primary production (GPP) was estimated from the above ground biomass yield. Results The mean dry biomass yield across all water table treatments was 6 Mg ha−1 with no significant differences between the treatments. Raising the GWL to the surface decreased both the net...... of peatlands grown with reed canary grass (RCG) and rewetted to various extents. Methods Gas fluxes of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were measured with a static chamber technique for 10 months from mesocosms sown with RCG and manipulated to ground water levels (GWL) of 0, −10, −20, −30 and −40 cm...... The results showed that a reduction in total GHG emission can be achieved without losing the productivity of newly established RCG when GWL is maintained close to the surface. Further studies should address the practical constrains and long-term productivity of RCG cultivation in rewetted peatlands....

  13. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions of the agriculture sector in France. Collection of territorial experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pommier, Fabien; Martin, Sarah; Bajeat, Philippe; Larbodiere, Ludovic; Vergez, Antonin

    2013-06-01

    After having briefly indicated the different origins of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions by the agriculture sector, presented the technical and political context, and outlined the need for new practices to struggle against climate change and to adapt to changes to come, this publication reports some experiments undertaken in different French regions: a farm network as an animation tool to support farmers, a local partnership to conciliate town and agriculture, the development of actions on energy and greenhouse gases in agriculture, the implementation of climate and agriculture plan, a network of agricultural actors for a sustainable support of change, an agriculture with and for its territory and inhabitants, a debate on agriculture and climate

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen releases during the life-cycles of staple food production in China and their mitigation potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Longlong; Ti, Chaopu; Li, Bolun; Xia, Yongqiu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

    2016-06-15

    Life-cycle analysis of staple food (rice, flour and corn-based fodder) production and assessments of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) and reactive nitrogen (Nr) releases, from environmental and economic perspectives, help to develop effective mitigation options. However, such evaluations have rarely been executed in China. We evaluated the GHG and Nr releases per kilogram of staple food production (carbon and Nr footprints) and per unit of net economic benefit (CO2-NEB and Nr-NEB), and explored their mitigation potential. Carbon footprints of food production in China were obviously higher than those in some developed countries. There was a high spatial variation in the footprints, primarily attributable to differences in synthetic N use (or CH4 emissions) per unit of food production. Provincial carbon footprints had a significant linear relationship with Nr footprints, attributed to large contribution of N fertilizer use to both GHG and Nr releases. Synthetic N fertilizer applications and CH4 emissions dominated the carbon footprints, while NH3 volatilization and N leaching were the main contributors to the Nr footprints. About 564 (95% uncertainty range: 404-701) TgCO2eqGHG and 10 (7.4-12.4) Tg Nr-N were released every year during 2001-2010 from staple food production. This caused the total damage costs of 325 (70-555) billion ¥, equivalent to nearly 1.44% of the Gross Domestic Product of China. Moreover, the combined damage costs and economic input costs, accounted for 66%-80% of the gross economic benefit generated from food production. A reduction of 92.7TgCO2eqyr(-1) and 2.2TgNr-Nyr(-1) could be achieved by reducing synthetic N inputs by 20%, increasing grain yields by 5% and implementing off-season application of straw and mid-season drainage practices for rice cultivation. In order to realize these scenarios, an ecological compensation scheme should be established to incentivize farmers to gradually adopt knowledge-based managements. Copyright © 2016

  15. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by adopting anaerobic digestion technology on dairy, sow and pig farms in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaparaju, P.; Rintala, J. [Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyvaeskylae, P.O. Box 35, FIN-40014 Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

    2011-01-15

    The impact of anaerobic digestion (AD) technology on mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from manure management on typical dairy, sow and pig farms in Finland was compared. Firstly, the total annual GHG emissions from the farms were calculated using IPCC guidelines for a similar slurry type manure management system. Secondly, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted to estimate methane (CH{sub 4}) potentials and process parameters for semi-continuous digestion of manures. Finally, the obtained experimental data were used to evaluate the potential renewable energy production and subsequently, the possible GHG emissions that could be avoided through adoption of AD technology on the studied farms. Results showed that enteric fermentation (CH{sub 4}) and manure management (CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O) accounted for 231.3, 32.3 and 18.3 Mg of CO{sub 2} eq. yr{sup -1} on dairy, sow and pig farms, respectively. With the existing farm data and experimental methane yields, an estimated renewable energy of 115.2, 36.3 and 79.5 MWh of heat yr{sup -1} and 62.8, 21.8 and 47.7 MWh of electricity yr{sup -1} could be generated in a CHP plant on these farms respectively. The total GHG emissions that could be offset on the studied dairy cow, sow and pig farms were 177, 87.7 and 125.6 Mg of CO{sub 2} eq. yr{sup -1}, respectively. The impact of AD technology on mitigating GHG emissions was mainly through replaced fossil fuel consumption followed by reduced emissions due to reduced fertilizer use and production, and from manure management. (author)

  16. Feeding strategies and manure management for cost-effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farms in Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutreuil, M; Wattiaux, M; Hardie, C A; Cabrera, V E

    2014-09-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms are a major concern. Our objectives were to assess the effect of mitigation strategies on GHG emissions and net return to management on 3 distinct farm production systems of Wisconsin. A survey was conducted on 27 conventional farms, 30 grazing farms, and 69 organic farms. The data collected were used to characterize 3 feeding systems scaled to the average farm (85 cows and 127ha). The Integrated Farm System Model was used to simulate the economic and environmental impacts of altering feeding and manure management in those 3 farms. Results showed that incorporation of grazing practices for lactating cows in the conventional farm led to a 27.6% decrease in total GHG emissions [-0.16kg of CO2 equivalents (CO2eq)/kg of energy corrected milk (ECM)] and a 29.3% increase in net return to management (+$7,005/yr) when milk production was assumed constant. For the grazing and organic farms, decreasing the forage-to-concentrate ratio in the diet decreased GHG emissions when milk production was increased by 5 or 10%. The 5% increase in milk production was not sufficient to maintain the net return; however, the 10% increase in milk production increased net return in the organic farm but not on the grazing farm. A 13.7% decrease in GHG emissions (-0.08kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) was observed on the conventional farm when incorporating manure the day of application and adding a 12-mo covered storage unit. However, those same changes led to a 6.1% (+0.04kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) and a 6.9% (+0.06kg of CO2eq/kg of ECM) increase in GHG emissions in the grazing and the organic farms, respectively. For the 3 farms, manure management changes led to a decrease in net return to management. Simulation results suggested that the same feeding and manure management mitigation strategies led to different outcomes depending on the farm system, and furthermore, effective mitigation strategies were used to reduce GHG emissions while maintaining

  17. Toward a protocol for quantifying the greenhouse gas balance and identifying mitigation options in smallholder farming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenstock, T. S.; Rufino, M. C.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Wollenberg, E.

    2013-06-01

    GHG budgets for developing economies. This dearth of information constrains the capacity to transition to low-carbon agricultural development, opportunities for smallholders to capitalize on carbon markets, and the negotiating position of developing countries in global climate policy discourse. Concerns over the poor state of information, in terms of data availability and representation, have fueled appeals for new approaches to quantifying GHG emissions and removals from smallholder agriculture, for both existing conditions and mitigation interventions (Berry and Ryan 2013, Olander et al 2013). Considering the dependence of quantification approaches on data and the current data deficit for smallholder systems, it is clear that in situ measurements must be a core part of initial and future strategies to improve GHG inventories and develop mitigation measures for smallholder agriculture. Once more data are available, especially for farming systems of high priority (e.g., those identified through global and regional rankings of emission hotspots or mitigation leverage points), better cumulative estimates and targeted actions will become possible. Greenhouse gas measurements in agriculture are expensive, time consuming, and error prone. These challenges are exacerbated by the heterogeneity of smallholder systems and landscapes and the diversity of methods used. Concerns over methodological rigor, measurement costs, and the diversity of approaches, coupled with the demand for robust information suggest it is germane for the scientific community to establish standards of measurements—'a protocol'—for quantifying GHG emissions from smallholder agriculture. A standard protocol for use by scientists and development organizations will help generate consistent, comparable, and reliable data on emissions baselines and allow rigorous comparisons of mitigation options. Besides enhancing data utility, a protocol serves as a benchmark for non-experts to easily assess data

  18. Economics of herbaceous bioenergy crops for electricity generation: Implications for greenhouse gas mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khanna, M.; Onal, H.; Dhungana, B.; Wander, M. [University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States)

    2011-04-15

    This paper examines the optimal land allocation for two perennial crops, switchgrass and miscanthus that can be co-fired with coal for electricity generation. Detailed spatial data at county level is used to determine the costs of producing and transporting biomass to power plants in Illinois over a 15-year period. A supply curve for bioenergy is generated at various levels of bioenergy subsidies and the implications of production for farm income and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are analyzed. GHG emissions are estimated using lifecycle analysis and include the soil carbon sequestered by perennial grasses and the carbon emissions displaced by these grasses due to both conversion of land from row crops and co-firing the grasses with coal. We find that the conversion of less than 2% of the cropland to bioenergy crops could produce 5.5% of the electricity generated by coal-fired power plants in Illinois and reduce carbon emissions by 11% over the 15-year period. However, the cost of energy from biomass in Illinois is more than twice as high as that of coal. Costly government subsidies for bioenergy or mandates in the form of Renewable Portfolio Standards would be needed to induce the production and use of bioenergy for electricity generation. Alternatively, a modest price for GHG emissions under a cap-and-trade policy could make bioenergy competitive with coal without imposing a fiscal burden on the government.

  19. A Greenhouse-Gas Information System: Monitoring and Validating Emissions Reporting and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonietz, Karl K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dimotakis, Paul E. [JPL/CAL Tech; Rotman, Douglas A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Walker, Bruce C. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2011-09-26

    This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a system that meets specifications derived from imposed requirements; the need for rigorous calibration, verification, and validation (CV&V) standards, processes, and records for all measurement and modeling/data-inversion data; the need to develop and adopt an uncertainty-quantification (UQ) regimen for all measurement and modeling data; and the requirement that GHGIS products can be subjected to third-party questioning and scientific scrutiny. This report examines and assesses presently available capabilities that could contribute to a future GHGIS. These capabilities include sensors and measurement technologies; data analysis and data uncertainty quantification (UQ) practices and methods; and model-based data-inversion practices, methods, and their associated UQ. The report further examines the need for traceable calibration, verification, and validation processes and attached metadata; differences between present science-/research-oriented needs and those that would be required for an operational GHGIS; the development, operation, and maintenance of a GHGIS missions-operations center (GMOC); and the complex systems engineering and integration that would be required to develop, operate, and evolve a future GHGIS.

  20. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation relevant to changes in municipal solid waste management system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikoń, Krzysztof; Gaska, Krzysztof

    2010-07-01

    Standard methods for assessing the environmental impact of waste management systems are needed to underpin the development and implementation of sustainable waste management practice. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool for comprehensively ensuring such assessment and covers all impacts associated with waste management. LCA is often called "from cradle to grave" analysis. This paper integrates information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of various management options for some of the most common materials in municipal solid waste (MSW). Different waste treatment options for MSW were studied in a system analysis. Different combinations of recycling (cardboard, plastics, glass, metals), biological treatment (composting), and incineration as well as land-filling were studied. The index of environmental burden in the global warming impact category was calculated. The calculations are based on LCA methodology. All emissions taking place in the whole life cycle system were taken into account. The analysis included "own emissions," or emissions from the system at all stages of the life cycle, and "linked emissions," or emissions from other sources linked with the system in an indirect way. Avoided emissions caused by recycling and energy recovery were included in the analysis. Displaced emissions of GHGs originate from the substitution of energy or materials derived from waste for alternative sources. The complex analysis of the environmental impact of municipal waste management systems before and after application of changes in MSW systems according to European Union regulations is presented in this paper. The evaluation is made for MSW systems in Poland.

  1. Mitigation of methane emissions in a pilot-scale biocover system at the av miljø landfill, denmark: system design and gas distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Peter; Skov, B.; Cassini, Filippo

    2013-01-01

    -passive biocover system was constructed at the AV Miljø landfill. The biocover is fed by landfill gas pumped out of three leachate wells. An innovative gas distribution system was used to overcome the often observed overloaded hot spot areas resulting from uneven gas distribution to the active methane oxidation......Greenhouse gas mitigation at landfills by methane oxidation in engineered biocover systems is believed to be a cost effective technology but so far a full quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the technology in full scale has only been carried out in a few cases. A third generation semi...... layer. Performed screening of methane and carbon dioxide concentration at the surface of the biocover showed homogenous distributions indicating an even gas distribution. This was supported by result from a performed tracer test where the compound HFC-134a was added to the gas inlet over a 12 day period...

  2. Mitigating the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in food through realistic consumer choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoolohan, C.; Berners-Lee, M.; McKinstry-West, J.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in 66 different food categories together with self-reported dietary information are used to show how consumer choices surrounding food might lead to reductions in food-related GHG emissions. The current UK-average diet is found to embody 8.8 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 . This figure includes both food eaten and food wasted (post-purchase). By far the largest potential reduction in GHG emissions is achieved by eliminating meat from the diet (35% reduction), followed by changing from carbon-intensive lamb and beef to less carbon-intensive pork and chicken (18% reduction). Cutting out all avoidable waste delivers an emissions saving of 12%. Not eating foods grown in hot-houses or air-freighted to the UK offers a 5% reduction in emissions. We show how combinations of consumer actions can easily lead to reductions of 25% in food related GHG emissions. If such changes were adopted by the entire UK population this would be equivalent to a 71% reduction in the exhaust pipe emissions of CO 2 from the entire UK passenger car fleet (which totalled 71 Mt CO 2 e year −1 in 2009). - Highlights: • UK-average diet embodies 8.8 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 (including avoidable waste). • Eliminating meat from the diet reduces food-related GHG emissions by 35%. • Changing from GHG-intensive meats to less intensive meats reduces emissions by 18%. • Cutting out all avoidable food waste reduces emissions by 12%. • Avoiding hot-housed food or food air-freighted to the UK reduces emissions by 5%

  3. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program

  4. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program.

  5. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  6. Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.R.

    2008-08-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  7. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  8. The economics of energy from animal manure for greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafoori, E.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the economic feasibility of using anaerobic digestion to produce biogas for the purpose of generating electricity. Centralized plants in 2 settings in Alberta were evaluated, notably a mixed farming area in Red Deer County and an area of concentrated beef cattle feedlots in Lethbridge County. The cost of producing power at a centralized plant drawing manure from 61 sources in the mixed farming area was shown to be nearly double the cost of producing power at a centralized plant drawing manure from 560,000 beef cattle in Lethbridge County. Digestate processing shifts the balance in favour of centralized processing. At larger scales, pipelines could be used to transport manure to a centralized plant and return the processed digestate back to the manure source for spreading. Pipeline transport is more economic than truck transport in cases where manure is produced by more than 90,000 animals. Pipeline transport of digestate is more economic when manure from more than 21,000 beef cattle is available and two-way pipelining of manure plus digestate is more economic when manure from more than 29,000 beef cattle is available. The value of carbon credits needed to make AD profitable in a mixed farming region was calculated based on an analysis of manure and digestate transport and processing costs. Carbon emission reductions from power generation were calculated for displacement of power from coal and natural gas. The carbon credit needed to cover the cost of AD processing of manure is greater than $150 per tonne of carbon dioxide, indicating that AD treatment of manure from mixed farming areas is not economic given current values of carbon credits. It was concluded that power generated from biogas has a high cost compared to current power prices and the cost of power from other large scale renewable sources. As such, factors other than energy value, such as phosphate, pathogen or odour control would have to be considered in order to justify power

  9. The economics of energy from animal manure for greenhouse gas mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafoori, Emad

    2007-12-01

    Anaerobic digestion (AD) has significant economies of scale, i.e. per unit processing costs decrease with increasing size. The economics of AD to produce biogas and in turn electric power in farm or feedlot based units as well as centralized plants is evaluated for two settings in Alberta: a mixed farming area, Red Deer County, and an area of concentrated beef cattle feedlots, Lethbridge County. A centralized plant drawing manure from 61 sources in the mixed farming area could produce power at a cost of 218 MWh-1 (2005 US). A centralized plant drawing manure from 560,000 beef cattle in Lethbridge County, can produce power at a cost of 138 MWh-1. Digestate processing, if commercially available, shifts the balance in favor of centralized processing. At larger scales, pipelines could be used to deliver manure to a centralized plant and return the processed digestate back to the manure source for spreading. Pipeline transport of beef cattle manure is more economic than truck transport for the manure produced by more than 90,000 animals. Pipeline transport of digestate is more economic when manure from more than 21,000 beef cattle is available and two-way pipelining of manure plus digestate is more economic when manure from more than 29,000 beef cattle is available. The value of carbon credits necessary to make AD profitable in a mixed farming region is also calculated based on a detailed analysis of manure and digestate transport and processing costs at an AD plant. Carbon emission reductions from power generation are calculated for displacement of power from coal and natural gas. The required carbon credit to cover the cost of AD processing of manure is greater than 150 per tonne of CO2. These results show that AD treatment of manure from mixed farming areas is not economic given current values of carbon credits. Power from biogas has a high cost relative to current power prices and to the cost of power from other large scale renewable sources. Power from biogas would

  10. Interpretation of the mitigation of runoff on the FOCUS Surface Water Scenarios as described in the FOCUS l&M report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horst, ter M.M.S.; Adriaanse, P.I.; Boesten, J.J.T.I.

    2009-01-01

    Our interpretation is that the reduced runoff fluxes (water and mass) of the 20 ha upstream are combined with the unchanged runoff water fluxes of the remaining 80 ha upstream catchment. This implies that the reduction factor on exposure concentrations in FOCUS streams of Step 4 FOCUS scenarios

  11. Coal-packed methane biofilter for mitigation of green house gas emissions from coal mine ventilation air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limbri, Hendy; Gunawan, Cindy; Thomas, Torsten; Smith, Andrew; Scott, Jason; Rosche, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    Methane emitted by coal mine ventilation air (MVA) is a significant greenhouse gas. A mitigation strategy is the oxidation of methane to carbon dioxide, which is approximately twenty-one times less effective at global warming than methane on a mass-basis. The low non-combustible methane concentrations at high MVA flow rates call for a catalytic strategy of oxidation. A laboratory-scale coal-packed biofilter was designed and partially removed methane from humidified air at flow rates between 0.2 and 2.4 L min-1 at 30°C with nutrient solution added every three days. Methane oxidation was catalysed by a complex community of naturally-occurring microorganisms, with the most abundant member being identified by 16S rRNA gene sequence as belonging to the methanotrophic genus Methylocystis. Additional inoculation with a laboratory-grown culture of Methylosinus sporium, as investigated in a parallel run, only enhanced methane consumption during the initial 12 weeks. The greatest level of methane removal of 27.2±0.66 g methane m-3 empty bed h-1 was attained for the non-inoculated system, which was equivalent to removing 19.7±2.9% methane from an inlet concentration of 1% v/v at an inlet gas flow rate of 1.6 L min-1 (2.4 min empty bed residence time). These results show that low-cost coal packing holds promising potential as a suitable growth surface and contains methanotrophic microorganisms for the catalytic oxidative removal of methane.

  12. Coal-Packed Methane Biofilter for Mitigation of Green House Gas Emissions from Coal Mine Ventilation Air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limbri, Hendy; Gunawan, Cindy; Thomas, Torsten; Smith, Andrew; Scott, Jason; Rosche, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    Methane emitted by coal mine ventilation air (MVA) is a significant greenhouse gas. A mitigation strategy is the oxidation of methane to carbon dioxide, which is approximately twenty-one times less effective at global warming than methane on a mass-basis. The low non-combustible methane concentrations at high MVA flow rates call for a catalytic strategy of oxidation. A laboratory-scale coal-packed biofilter was designed and partially removed methane from humidified air at flow rates between 0.2 and 2.4 L min−1 at 30°C with nutrient solution added every three days. Methane oxidation was catalysed by a complex community of naturally-occurring microorganisms, with the most abundant member being identified by 16S rRNA gene sequence as belonging to the methanotrophic genus Methylocystis. Additional inoculation with a laboratory-grown culture of Methylosinus sporium, as investigated in a parallel run, only enhanced methane consumption during the initial 12 weeks. The greatest level of methane removal of 27.2±0.66 g methane m−3 empty bed h−1 was attained for the non-inoculated system, which was equivalent to removing 19.7±2.9% methane from an inlet concentration of 1% v/v at an inlet gas flow rate of 1.6 L min−1 (2.4 min empty bed residence time). These results show that low-cost coal packing holds promising potential as a suitable growth surface and contains methanotrophic microorganisms for the catalytic oxidative removal of methane. PMID:24743729

  13. Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Jon; Colombo, Steve; Chen, Jiaxin; Mabee, Warren; MacLean, Heather L

    2011-01-15

    The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.

  14. Comparative Advantage of Maize- and Grass-Silage Based Feedstock for Biogas Production with Respect to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Meyer-Aurich

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the comparative advantage of using silage maize or grass as feedstock for anaerobic digestion to biogas from a greenhouse gas (GHG mitigation point of view, taking into account site-specific yield potentials, management options, and land-use change effects. GHG emissions due to the production of biogas were calculated using a life-cycle assessment approach for three different site conditions with specific yield potentials and adjusted management options. While for the use of silage maize, GHG emissions per energy unit were the same for different yield potentials, and the emissions varied substantially for different grassland systems. Without land-use change effects, silage maize-based biogas had lower GHG emissions per energy unit compared to grass-based biogas. Taking land-use change into account, results in a comparative advantage of biogas production from grass-based feedstock produced on arable land compared to silage maize-based feedstock. However, under current frame conditions, it is quite unrealistic that grass production systems would be established on arable land at larger scale.

  15. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the French winter oilseed rape in order to produce sustainable biodiesel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flénet Francis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the study were (1 to evaluate the possibility for the French winter oilseed rape to achieve the 50% greenhouse gas (GHG saving criteria of the European Directive on the promotion of renewable energy (2009/28/EC, and (2 to investigate mitigation options. The agricultural GHG emissions were calculated with the actual seed yields and cultural operations of more than 5000 winter oilseed rape fields producing seeds collected by 27 grain storage companies (GSC, while the same values of GHG emissions for transport and biodiesel processing were used for all GSC. The study clearly showed that the 50% GHG saving criteria could not be achieved each year, by each of the grain storage company, without improvements of crop management. The possibility to reduce the GHG emissions by improving the efficiency of mineral N fertilization was demonstrated. Improving seed yields without increasing the amount of N application on the fields would also decrease GHG emissions. On the contrary, the application of organic matter appeared to be largely ineffective because of the way N2O emissions were calculated in the study (tier 1 method of International Panel on Climate Change.

  16. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  17. Mitigation options : flare and vent mitigation undercuts CCS in trimming CO{sub 2} emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, M.

    2010-11-15

    This article reported on a study aimed at reducing flaring and venting associated with conventional heavy oil production. In particular, the study analyzed parameters such as the variability in flare volumes, flare gas composition and statistical distribution of volumes flared. The objective was to determine the most viable economic solution to reducing flare and vent volumes. In particular, the study focused on various scenarios to tie-in currently flared and vented solution gas. Solution gas volume variability was found to be wide ranging, with 90 percent of sites handling less than 32 percent of the volume and 10 percent of the sites handling more than two-thirds of the volume. Composition also varied, and was difficult to measure. One scenario assumed that wells were unconnected and had to be tied in with their own compressors and pipe, while another scenario considered the wells to be individual wells. A first comprehensive analysis of flare and vent mitigation opportunities in Alberta revealed that tying in solution gas at battery sites could create emissions reductions at much lower cost than the province's carbon capture and storage (CCS) plan. The study of mitigation options primarily targeted the conventional heavy oil belt of eastern Alberta near Lloydminster. The most optimistic scenario included a $15 per tonne carbon credit, that up to 55 megatonnes could be trimmed over 10 years at no cost to the industry.1 fig.

  18. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  19. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  20. Experiments about the integrity of BWR relief pipes in postulated radiolysis gas combustion. Scenario No.2. Minor steam leakages without any lowering of the water level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedrich, A.; Grune, J.; Sempert, K.; Stern, G.; Kuznetsov, M.; Redlinger, R.; Breitung, W.; Franke, T.

    2008-01-01

    The experiments described in this article were performed to study this comprehensive radiolysis gas scenario: - The relief pipe is filled completely with radiolysis gas (2H 2 +O 2 ). - After opening of the S and R valve, the radiolysis gas is compressed adiabatically by the incoming steam without mixing. - Roughly at the point of peak pressure in the relief pipe (20 bar) the radiolysis gas ignites. This dynamic scenario was studied in steady-state model experiments with a test pipe which corresponds to the relief pipes installed in KKP-1 in terms of materials, dimensions, and manufacturing control. The initial conditions and boundary conditions of the experiments were conservative. In the course of the tests, the maximum dynamic strain and the residual plastic deformation of the test pipe were measured via the transient detonation load. The maximum dynamic strain measured was 0.75%, the maximum residual plastic strain reached 0.15%. The pipe suffered no other deformation above and beyond this slight plastic strain. The radiolysis gas detonation was simulated very well numerically. Using the calculated pressure loads in a structural dynamics model also showed good agreement with the measured maximum dynamic pipe strains. In this way, the experimental findings were confirmed theoretically. The experiments and the calculations showed that postulated radiolysis gas reactions during pressure relief cannot jeopardize the integrity of the relief pipe. (orig.)

  1. Short-term effects of CO2 leakage on the soil bacterial community in a simulated gas leakage scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Ma

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The technology of carbon dioxide (CO2 capture and storage (CCS has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic emissions with unique advantages. However, the potential risk of gas leakage from CO2 sequestration and utilization processes has attracted considerable attention. Moreover, leakage might threaten soil ecosystems and thus cannot be ignored. In this study, a simulation experiment of leakage from CO2 geological storage was designed to investigate the short-term effects of different CO2 leakage concentration (from 400 g m−2 day−1 to 2,000 g m−2 day−1 on soil bacterial communities. A shunt device and adjustable flow meter were used to control the amount of CO2 injected into the soil. Comparisons were made between soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community diversity before and after injecting different CO2 concentrations. Increasing CO2 concentration decreased the soil pH, and the largest variation ranged from 8.15 to 7.29 (p < 0.05. Nitrate nitrogen content varied from 1.01 to 4.03 mg/Kg, while Olsen-phosphorus and total phosphorus demonstrated less regular downtrends. The fluorescein diacetate (FDA hydrolytic enzyme activity was inhibited by the increasing CO2 flux, with the average content varying from 22.69 to 11.25 mg/(Kg h (p < 0.05. However, the increasing activity amplitude of the polyphenol oxidase enzyme approached 230%, while the urease activity presented a similar rising trend. Alpha diversity results showed that the Shannon index decreased from 7.66 ± 0.13 to 5.23 ± 0.35 as the soil CO2 concentration increased. The dominant phylum in the soil samples was Proteobacteria, whose proportion rose rapidly from 28.85% to 67.93%. In addition, the proportion of Acidobacteria decreased from 19.64% to 9.29% (p < 0.01. Moreover, the abundances of genera Methylophilus, Methylobacillus, and Methylovorus increased, while GP4, GP6 and GP7 decreased. Canonical correlation analysis

  2. Safety assessment for proposed pump mixing operations to mitigate episodic gas releases in tank 241-101-SY: Hanford Site, Richland, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lentsch, J.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-05-16

    This safety assessment addresses each of the elements required for the proposed action to remove a slurry distributor and to install, operate, and remove a mixing pump in Tank 241-SY-101, which is located within the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington. The proposed action is required as part of an ongoing evaluation of various mitigation concepts developed to eliminate episodic gas releases that result in hydrogen concentrations in the tank dome space that exceed the lower flammability limit.

  3. A safety assessment for proposed pump mixing operations to mitigate episodic gas releases in tank 241-SY-101: Hanford Site,Richland, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lentsch, J.W.

    1996-07-01

    This safety assessment addresses each of the elements required for the proposed action to remove a slurry distributor and to install, operate, and remove a mixing pump in Tank 241-SY-101,which is located within the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington.The proposed action is required as part of an ongoing evaluation of various mitigation concepts developed to eliminate episodic gas releases that result in hydrogen concentrations in the tank dome space that exceed the lower flammability limit.

  4. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  5. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

    2014-01-01

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  6. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  7. A regional assessment of the cost and effectiveness of mitigation measures for reducing nutrient losses to water and greenhouse gas emissions to air from pastoral farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vibart, Ronaldo; Vogeler, Iris; Dennis, Samuel; Kaye-Blake, William; Monaghan, Ross; Burggraaf, Vicki; Beautrais, Josef; Mackay, Alec

    2015-06-01

    Using a novel approach that links geospatial land resource information with individual farm-scale simulation, we conducted a regional assessment of nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) losses to water and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to air from the predominant mix of pastoral industries in Southland, New Zealand. An evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of several nutrient loss mitigation strategies applied at the farm-scale, set primarily for reducing N and P losses and grouped by capital cost and potential ease of adoption, followed an initial baseline assessment. Grouped nutrient loss mitigation strategies were applied on an additive basis on the assumption of full adoption, and were broadly identified as 'improved nutrient management' (M1), 'improved animal productivity' (M2), and 'restricted grazing' (M3). Estimated annual nitrate-N leaching losses occurring under representative baseline sheep and beef (cattle) farms, and representative baseline dairy farms for the region were 10 ± 2 and 32 ± 6 kg N/ha (mean ± standard deviation), respectively. Both sheep and beef and dairy farms were responsive to N leaching loss mitigation strategies in M1, at a low cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Only dairy farms were responsive to N leaching loss abatement from adopting M2, at no additional cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Dairy farms were also responsive to N leaching loss abatement from adopting M3, but this reduction came at a greater cost per kg N-loss mitigated. Only dairy farms were responsive to P-loss mitigation strategies, in particular by adopting M1. Only dairy farms were responsive to GHG abatement; greater abatement was achieved by the most intensified dairy farm system simulated. Overall, M1 provided for high levels of regional scale N- and P-loss abatement at a low cost per farm without affecting overall farm production, M2 provided additional N-loss abatement but only marginal P-loss abatement, whereas M3 provided the greatest N-loss abatement, but

  8. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  9. Small-scale electricity generating facilities from natural gas : a measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect; Microgeneracion de energia con gas natural: una medida efectiva para mitigar el cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez, A. M.

    2002-07-01

    The forthcoming liberalization of the gas and electricity markets in Europe, in conjunction with the increase of the global energy consumption in the near future are enabling the development of natural gas alternatives to traditional large-scale centralized power plants. They emerged from research suggesting that the use of small-scale electricity generating facilities dispersed throughout the electrical network, provides the electricity system with measurable technical, economic and environmental benefits. In this sense, the distributed generation powered by cogeneration systems offers the biggest measure to mitigate the greenhouse effect due to the carbon dioxide. (Author)

  10. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  11. Pros and cons of an expansion of the natural gas system in the Nordic Countries - sensitivity analysis of the scenario results from stage one of the Nordleden project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The report shows that the maximum economic profit from a transnordic gas grid amounts to 5-30 billion SEK (0.5-3 billion USD), depending on scenarios. This holds even under relatively strict CO 2 limitations. The profit is in the same range as the profits from emissions trading or from free trade in electricity in the Nordic market. In absolute numbers, the profit increases with increased energy demand. The natural gas supply could amount to about 300 TWh in year 2030, if the price at the border does not surpass 70 SEK/MWh (7 USD/MWh). The main expansion would be in central power and heat production. However, the report also shows that the transnordic gas grid could become a burden for the Nordic energy system, as the profit could be negative in the case where the investment is done according to the design case, but the gas price gets higher. The worst case could result in a loss of about 30 billion SEK. However, it is probably more realistic to assume that the market actors try to minimize their own risks through long term contracts with fixed prices and volumes, leading to a transfer of the risk to the society as a whole, being forced to renounce cheaper solutions for reaching the environmental goals in the case where natural gas becomes a more expensive fuel than supposed in the planning stage. The corresponding risk is much lower from a CO 2 point of view, i.e. if future CO 2 reduction limit become more strict than in the planning stage, the value of the gas grid is only marginally affected. Sensitivity analysis where the Nordic cooperation is widened to include trade in electricity (which already is a fact) and emission rights show that the optimum natural gas supply is affected, but to a small degree only. The net effect is a certain redistribution of the natural gas use between the countries

  12. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  13. The Sustainability of green gas. A comparison of six green gas production scenarios for the environmental economic and social aspects of sustainability based on the current Dutch situation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braaksma, Anne

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY The use of fossil fuels has environmental consequences, which drives developments in bio-energy. For the Netherlands, green gas is a potential, new emerging form of bio-energy. Gener-ally, green gas is anaerobic digested biomass upgraded to natur

  14. Water use competition scenarios during the upcoming development of shale gas reserves across the Mexican Eagle Ford play Image already added

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arciniega, S.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.; Hernaández Espriú, A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mexico has significant shale oil and gas resources mainly contained within the Mexican part of the Eagle Ford play (Mex-EF), in the Burgos Basin located in northern Mexico. Over the last years, concerns about the water use associated to shale gas development using hydraulic fracturing (HF) have been increasing in the United States and Canada. In Mexico, the recent approval of a new energy bill allows the exploration, development and production of shale gas reserves. However, several of the Mexican shale gas resources are located in water-limited environments, such as the Mex-EF. The lack of climate and hydrological gauging stations across this region constrains information about how much freshwater from surface and groundwater sources is available and whether its interannual water availability is sufficient to satisfy the water demand by other users (agricultural, urban) of the region This work projects the water availability across the Mex-EF and its water use derived from the expansion of unconventional gas developments over the next 15 years. Water availability is estimated using a water balance approach, where the irrigation's groundwater withdrawals time series were reconstructed using remote sensing products (vegetation index and hydrological outputs from LSMs) and validated with in situ observed water use at three different irrigation districts of the region. Water use for HF is inferred using type curves of gas production, flowback and produced (FP) water and curves of drilled wells per year from the US experience, mainly from the Texas-EF play. Scenarios that combine freshwater use and FP water use for HF are developed and the spatial distribution of HF well pads is projected using random samples with a range of wells' horizontal length. This proposed methodology can be applied in other shale formations of the world under water stress and it also helps to determine whether water scarcity can be a limiting factor for the shale gas industry over the next

  15. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makundi, Willy R.L. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (United States)

    1998-10-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs.

  16. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makundi, Willy R.L.

    1998-01-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs

  17. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makundi, Willy R.

    1998-01-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries.; copyrighted ; Y

  18. Screening method to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of old landfills, based on downwind methane concentration measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredenslund, Anders Michael; Mønster, J.; Kjeldsen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    A nationwide effort is taking place in Denmark to mitigate methane emissions from landfills, by using biocovers. A large number of older landfills were found to be potential candidates for biocover implementation, but very little information was available for these sites to help evaluate if signi......A nationwide effort is taking place in Denmark to mitigate methane emissions from landfills, by using biocovers. A large number of older landfills were found to be potential candidates for biocover implementation, but very little information was available for these sites to help evaluate...... if significant methane emissions occur. To assess these sites, we developed a low-cost and quick remote sensing methodology, whereby downwind methane concentrations from 91 landfills were measured using a mobile analytical platform, and emission rates were calculated using an inverse dispersion model. The method...

  19. Challenges and opportunities for improving eco-efficiency of tropical forage-based systems to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Peters

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Forage-based livestock production plays a key role in national and regional economies, for food security and poverty alleviation, but is considered a major contributor to agricultural GHG emissions. While demand for livestock products is predicted to increase, there is political and societal pressure both to reduce environmental impacts and to convert some of the pasture area to alternative uses, such as crop production and environmental conservation. Thus, it is essential to develop approaches for sustainable intensification of livestock systems to mitigate GHG emissions, addressing biophysical, socio-economic and policy challenges. This paper highlights the potential of improved tropical forages, linked with policy incentives, to enhance livestock production, while reducing its environmental footprint. Emphasis is on crop-livestock systems. We give examples for sustainable intensification to mitigate GHG emissions, based on improved forages in Brazil and Colombia, and suggest future perspectives.

  20. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  1. Effects of three methane mitigation agents on parameters of kinetics of total and hydrogen gas production, ruminal fermentation and hydrogen balance using in vitro technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Min; Wang, Rong; Yang, Shan; Deng, Jin Ping; Tang, Shao Xun; Tan, Zhi Liang

    2016-02-01

    Methane (CH4 ) can be mitigated through directly inhibiting methanogen activity and starving methanogens by hydrogen (H2 ) sink. Three types of mechanism (i.e. bromoethanesulphonate (BES), nitrate and emodin) and doses of CH4 mitigation agents were employed to investigate their pathways of CH4 inhibition. Results indicated that both BES and emodin inhibited CH4 production and altered H2 balance, which could be accompanied by decreased dry matter disappearance (DMD), fractional rate of gH2 formation, volatile fatty acid (VFA) production, ability to produce and use reducing equivalences and molecular H2 , and increased final asymptotic gH2 production, time to the peak of gH2 , discrete lag time of gH2 production and fermentation efficiency. However, emodin decreased gas volume produced by rapidly fermentable components of substrate and the rate of fermentation at early stage of incubation, while BES supplementation inhibited gas volume produced by both rapidly and slowly fermentable components of substrate and the rate of fermentation at middle or late stage of incubation. The nitrate supplementation inhibited CH4 production without affecting VFA profile, because of its dual role as H2 sink and being toxic to methanogens. Nitrate supplementation had more complicated pattern of fermentation, VFA production and profile and H2 balance in comparison to BES and emodin supplementation. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  2. Impact of greenhouse gas metrics on the quantification of agricultural emissions and farm-scale mitigation strategies: a New Zealand case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reisinger, Andy; Ledgard, Stewart

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture emits a range of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas metrics allow emissions of different gases to be reported in a common unit called CO 2 -equivalent. This enables comparisons of the efficiency of different farms and production systems and of alternative mitigation strategies across all gases. The standard metric is the 100 year global warming potential (GWP), but alternative metrics have been proposed and could result in very different CO 2 -equivalent emissions, particularly for CH 4 . While significant effort has been made to reduce uncertainties in emissions estimates of individual gases, little effort has been spent on evaluating the implications of alternative metrics on overall agricultural emissions profiles and mitigation strategies. Here we assess, for a selection of New Zealand dairy farms, the effect of two alternative metrics (100 yr GWP and global temperature change potentials, GTP) on farm-scale emissions and apparent efficiency and cost effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies. We find that alternative metrics significantly change the balance between CH 4 and N 2 O; in some cases, alternative metrics even determine whether a specific management option would reduce or increase net farm-level emissions or emissions intensity. However, the relative ranking of different farms by profitability or emissions intensity, and the ranking of the most cost-effective mitigation options for each farm, are relatively unaffected by the metric. We conclude that alternative metrics would change the perceived significance of individual gases from agriculture and the overall cost to farmers if a price were applied to agricultural emissions, but the economically most effective response strategies are unaffected by the choice of metric. (letter)

  3. Impact of greenhouse gas metrics on the quantification of agricultural emissions and farm-scale mitigation strategies: a New Zealand case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Andy; Ledgard, Stewart

    2013-06-01

    Agriculture emits a range of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas metrics allow emissions of different gases to be reported in a common unit called CO2-equivalent. This enables comparisons of the efficiency of different farms and production systems and of alternative mitigation strategies across all gases. The standard metric is the 100 year global warming potential (GWP), but alternative metrics have been proposed and could result in very different CO2-equivalent emissions, particularly for CH4. While significant effort has been made to reduce uncertainties in emissions estimates of individual gases, little effort has been spent on evaluating the implications of alternative metrics on overall agricultural emissions profiles and mitigation strategies. Here we assess, for a selection of New Zealand dairy farms, the effect of two alternative metrics (100 yr GWP and global temperature change potentials, GTP) on farm-scale emissions and apparent efficiency and cost effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies. We find that alternative metrics significantly change the balance between CH4 and N2O; in some cases, alternative metrics even determine whether a specific management option would reduce or increase net farm-level emissions or emissions intensity. However, the relative ranking of different farms by profitability or emissions intensity, and the ranking of the most cost-effective mitigation options for each farm, are relatively unaffected by the metric. We conclude that alternative metrics would change the perceived significance of individual gases from agriculture and the overall cost to farmers if a price were applied to agricultural emissions, but the economically most effective response strategies are unaffected by the choice of metric.

  4. Microalgae for third generation biofuel production, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and wastewater treatment: Present and future perspectives – A mini review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maity, Jyoti Prakash; Bundschuh, Jochen; Chen, Chien-Yen; Bhattacharya, Prosun

    2014-01-01

    The extensive use of fossil fuels is increasingly recognized as unsustainable as a consequence of depletion of supplies and the contribution of these fuels to climate change by GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions into the atmosphere. Microalgae indicate alternative renewable sustainable energy sources as they have a high potential for producing large amounts of biomass which in turn can be used for production of different third-generation biofuels at large scale. Microalgae transform the solar energy into the carbon storage products, leads to lipid accumulation, including TAG (triacylglycerols), which then can be transformed into biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethanol. This paper reviews the selection, production and accumulation of target bioenergy carrier's strains and their advantages as well as the technological development for oil, biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biogas production and GHG mitigation. The feedstock of promising algal strain exhibits the suitable biofuel production. The current progress of hybrid-technologies (biomass production, wastewater treatment, GHG mitigation) for production of prime-products as biofuels offer atmospheric pollution control such as the reduction of GHG (CO 2 fixation) coupling wastewater treatment with microalgae growth. The selection of efficient strain, microbial metabolism, cultivation systems, biomass production are key parameters of viable technology for microalgae-based biodiesel-production. - Highlights: • Microalgae are promising feedstock for biofuel production within lower farming area. • Production rate (L/ha) of oil from microalgae is much higher than other feedstock. • Lipid of Chlorella emersonii, Botryococcus braunii, Dunaliella tertiolecta, are high (>60% of dw biomass). • Remove pollutant from wastewater during feedstock production by selective strains. • Ecofriendly route to mitigate GHG (greenhouse gas) and water pollution during microalgae production

  5. International Experiences with Quantifying the Co-Benefits of Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Programs and Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, Grace [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Improving the efficiency of energy production and consumption and switching to lower carbon energy sources can significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and reduce climate change impacts. A growing body of research has found that these measures can also directly mitigate many non-climate change related human health hazards and environmental damage. Positive impacts of policies and programs that occur in addition to the intended primary policy goal are called co-benefits. Policy analysis relies on forecasting and comparing the costs of policy and program implementation and the benefits that accrue to society from implementation. GHG reduction and energy efficiency policies and programs face political resistance in part because of the difficulty of quantifying their benefits. On the one hand, climate change mitigation policy benefits are often global, long-term, and subject to large uncertainties, and subsidized energy pricing can reduce the direct monetary benefits of energy efficiency policies to below their cost. On the other hand, the co-benefits that accrue from these efforts’ resultant reductions in conventional air pollution (such as improved health, agricultural productivity, reduced damage to infrastructure, and local ecosystem improvements) are generally near term, local, and more certain than climate change mitigation benefits and larger than the monetary value of energy savings. The incorporation of co-benefits into energy efficiency and climate mitigation policy and program analysis therefore might significantly increase the uptake of these policies. Faster policy uptake is especially important in developing countries because ongoing development efforts that do not consider co-benefits may lock in suboptimal technologies and infrastructure and result in high costs in future years. Over the past two decades, studies have repeatedly documented that non-climate change related benefits of energy efficiency and fuel conversion efforts, as a part

  6. Hypothetical accident scenario analyses for a 250-MW(t) modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrington, R.M.; Ball, S.J.; Cleveland, J.C.

    1985-11-01

    This paper describes calculations performed to characterize the inherent safety of a 250-MW(t), 100-MW(e), pebble bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) design with vertical in-line arrangement (i.e., upflow core with steam generators directly above the core). A variety of postulated accident sequences involving combinations of loss of forced primary coolant (helium) circulation, loss of primary coolant pressurization, and loss of heat sink were studied and were discussed

  7. Creating a Methodology for Coordinating High-resolution Air Quality Improvement Map and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies in Pittsburgh City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, J.; Donahue, N. M.; Klima, K.; Blackhurst, M.

    2016-12-01

    In order to tradeoff global impacts of greenhouse gases with highly local impacts of conventional air pollution, researchers require a method to compare global and regional impacts. Unfortunately, we are not aware of a method that allows these to be compared, "apples-to-apples". In this research we propose a three-step model to compare possible city-wide actions to reduce greenhouse gases and conventional air pollutants. We focus on Pittsburgh, PA, a city with consistently poor air quality that is interested in reducing both greenhouse gases and conventional air pollutants. First, we use the 2013 Pittsburgh Greenhouse Gas Inventory to update the Blackhurst et al. model and conduct a greenhouse gas abatement potentials and implementation costs of proposed greenhouse gas reduction efforts. Second, we use field tests for PM2.5, NOx, SOx, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) data to inform a Land-use Regression Model for local air pollution at a 100m x 100m spatial level, which combined with a social cost of air pollution model (EASIUR) allows us to calculate economic social damages. Third, we combine these two models into a three-dimensional greenhouse gas cost abatement curve to understand the implementation costs and social benefits in terms of air quality improvement and greenhouse gas abatement for each potential intervention. We anticipated such results could provide policy-maker insights in green city development.

  8. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  9. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  10. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  11. Rice straw as a renewable energy source in India, Thailand, and the Philippines: Overall potential and limitations for energy contribution and greenhouse gas mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadde, Butchaiah; Menke, Christoph; Wassmann, Reiner

    2009-01-01

    abstract: Rice is a widely grown crop in the South and South-East Asia that leaves substantial quantity of straw in the field. The aim of this paper is to assess the quantity of rice straw produced, estimate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions based on its current uses, and assess its possible energy potential and related GHG emissions mitigation potential. Updated statistics on rough rice production are used in this study in combination with the literature values on Straw-to-Grain Ratio (SGR) to quantify the amount of rice straw produced in the three countries of focus. It is estimated that 97.19, 21.86, and 10.68 Mt of rice straw residue are produced in India, Thailand, and the Philippines, respectively. In India, 23% of rice straw residue produced is surplus and is either left in the field as uncollected or to a large extent open-field burnt. About 48% of this residue produced is subjected to open-field burning in Thailand, and in the Philippines it is 95%. The GHG emissions contribution through open-field burning of rice straw in India, Thailand, and the Philippines are 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.56%, and the mitigated GHG emissions when generated electricity is used would be 0.75%, 1.81%, and 4.31%, respectively, when compared to the total country GHG emissions.

  12. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation from a pig farm with digester; Potencial de reducao de emissao de equivalente de carbono de uma unidade suinicola com biodigestor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angonese, Andre R. [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE), Toledo, PR (Brazil). Centro de Ciencias Agrarias. Grupo de Pesquisas em Ambiencia do Oeste do Parana]. E-mail: aangonese@yahoo.com.br; Campos, Alessandro T. [Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Diamantina, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Agronomia; Welter, Rosilene A. [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana (UNIOESTE), Toledo, PR (Brazil)

    2007-09-15

    Greenhouse gas emissions (tCO{sub 2} eq year{sup -1}) and the money earned annually with the total amount of pigs and the average per pig were evaluate. The pig farm has about 600 animals. The waste treatment system is integrated making possible the nutrients recycling. The tubular anaerobic digester degrade organic matter producing methane and fertilizer. The estimation made was based on the methodology AM0006 approved by Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board. The mitigation potential calculated was 325.16 tCO{sup 2} eq year{sup -1}, or 0.54 tCO{sup 2} eq year{sup -1}. The financial income was approximately R$ 5.31 animal{sup -1} year{sup -1}. (author)

  13. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  14. What factors influence mitigative capacity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Baumert, Kevin; Blanchard, Odile; Burch, Sarah; Robinson, John

    2007-01-01

    This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By 'ability' we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation

  15. Fiscal 2000 survey on electrical power supply system for the purpose of reducing greenhouse effect gas. Three scenarios for spread of distributed power generation by 2010; 2000 nendo onshitsu koka gas sakugen no tame no denryoku kyokyu system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. 2010 nen made no bunsangata dengen fukyu ni kansuru mittsu no scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)

  16. Hot gas in the cold dark matter scenario: X-ray clusters from a high-resolution numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hyesung; Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Ryu, Dongsu

    1994-01-01

    A new, three-dimensional, shock-capturing hydrodynamic code is utilized to determine the distribution of hot gas in a standard cold dark matter (CDM) model of the universe. Periodic boundary conditions are assumed: a box with size 85 h(exp -1) Mpc having cell size 0.31 h(exp -1) Mpc is followed in a simulation with 270(exp 3) = 10(exp 7.3) cells. Adopting standard parameters determined from COBE and light-element nucleosynthesis, sigma(sub 8) = 1.05, omega(sub b) = 0.06, and assuming h = 0.5, we find the X-ray-emitting clusters and compute the luminosity function at several wavelengths, the temperature distribution, and estimated sizes, as well as the evolution of these quantities with redshift. We find that most of the total X-ray emissivity in our box originates in a relatively small number of identifiable clusters which occupy approximately 10(exp -3) of the box volume. This standard CDM model, normalized to COBE, produces approximately 5 times too much emission from clusters having L(sub x) is greater than 10(exp 43) ergs/s, a not-unexpected result. If all other parameters were unchanged, we would expect adequate agreement for sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. This provides a new and independent argument for lower small-scale power than standard CDM at the 8 h(exp -1) Mpc scale. The background radiation field at 1 keV due to clusters in this model is approximately one-third of the observed background, which, after correction for numerical effects, again indicates approximately 5 times too much emission and the appropriateness of sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. If we have used the observed ratio of gas to total mass in clusters, rather than basing the mean density on light-element nucleosynthesis, then the computed luminosity of each cluster would have increased still further, by a factor of approximately 10. The number density of clusters increases to z approximately 1, but the luminosity per typical cluster decreases, with the result that evolution in the number density of bright

  17. Life-Cycle Analysis of Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Water Consumption in the 2016 MYPP Algal Biofuel Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward; Pegallapati, Ambica; Davis, Ryan; Markham, Jennifer; Coleman, Andre; Jones, Sue; Wigmosta, Mark; Zhu, Yunhua

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients.

  18. Cost effectiveness comparison of certain transportation measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in San Diego County, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva-Send, Nilmini; Anders, Scott; Narwold, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    California's overarching mandate to achieve 1990 levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2020 (AB 32, 2005), and the ensuing recent regulations (SB 375, CEQA updates) require local and regional governments to assess GHG mitigation policies, including on-road transportation. The regulations do not make cost-effectiveness a primary criteria for choosing measures but cost remains important to a variety of stakeholders. This communication summarizes results from GHG and cost analysis for seven actual San Diego County road transportation policies: telecommute, vanpools, a bicycle strategy, an increase in mass transit use, parking policies (parking pricing, preferred parking for electric vehicles), an increased local fuel tax and speed harmonization (signal re-timing, roundabouts). Net costs are calculated as the sum of direct costs and benefits to the administering agency, the employer and the individual. Net costs per metric ton GHG abated vary greatly across measures, from negative to high positive (more than US $1000). We find that local GHG cost cannot be sensibly compared to other carbon or GHG policy costs outside the local context for a variety of reasons, but especially because measures have not been adopted primarily for carbon or GHG abatement potential or on the basis of cost effectiveness

  19. Thermo-Economic Modelling and Process Integration of CO2-Mitigation Options on Oil and Gas Platforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2014-01-01

    recovering CO2 that can be used for enhanced oil recovery. In this paper, a North Sea platform is considered as case study, and the site-scale retrofit integration of these three options is analysed, considering thermodynamic, economic and environmental performance indicators. The results illustrate......The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process associated with large CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere and chemicals to the sea. The taxation of these emissions has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three...

  20. Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Yuan; Tan, Xianchun; Gu, Baihe; Wang, Yi; Xu, Baoguang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Predict baseline GHG emissions of different motor vehicles of Chinese cities. • Different kinds of fuels are considered when accounting GHG emissions. • A comparative analysis on four case cities of China is conducted. • New energy will have different growth patterns due to diverse policies and resources. • Policy implications are given based on the analysis results. - Abstract: Along with rapid development of economy, urbanization and industrialization in China, the transportation sector especially road transport accounts for the quickest growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the country. This paper selects four representative cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing) in the north, east, south, and west of China as targets of case study. It predicts future motor vehicle population in various cities using the Gompertz Model, and predicts and analyzes fuel consumption and GHG emissions of different types of motor vehicles in the case cities by 2035. The results indicate that besides gasoline and diesel, in the future uses of various types of vehicle fuels will follow different patterns among these four cities due to diverse resources endowment, economic strength, technology levels and geographical features. Based on predicted vehicle population and fuel consumption, it is found that from 2013 to 2035, GHG emissions from tank to wheel (TTW) and well to wheel (WTW) in all cities will continuously increase yet at different rates. If there is no interference from new policies, around 2020 Chongqing is expected to replace Beijing as the city with the highest volume of GHG emissions of vehicles among four case study cities. Therefore, the four cities especially Chongqing need urgently to develop or adjust low-carbon policies in road transportation sector, in order to achieve China’s future greenhouse gas reduction targets. Some policy implications to reduce GHG emissions of the road transportation

  1. Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

    2017-10-01

    Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

  2. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

    2014-07-01

    The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of

  3. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  4. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  5. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Uranium Metal with Water in K Basin Sludge and Sludge Waste Forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2011-06-08

    corrosion rates in water alone and in simulated sludge were near or slightly below the metal-in-water rate while nitrate-free sludge/Aquaset II decreased rates by about a factor of 3. Addition of 1 M nitrate to simulated sludge decreased the corrosion rate by a factor of ~5 while 1 M nitrate in sludge/Aquaset II mixtures decreased the corrosion rate by ~2.5 compared with the nitrate-free analogues. Mixtures of simulated sludge with Aquaset II treated with 1 M nitrate had uranium corrosion rates about a factor of 8 to 10 lower than the water-only rate law. Nitrate was found to provide substantial hydrogen mitigation for immobilized simulant sludge waste forms containing Aquaset II or Aquaset II G clay. Hydrogen attenuation factors of 1000 or greater were determined at 60°C for sludge-clay mixtures at 1 M nitrate. Hydrogen mitigation for tests with PC and Aquaset II H (which contains PC) were inconclusive because of suspected failure to overcome induction times and fully enter into anoxic corrosion. Lessening of hydrogen attenuation at ~80°C and ~95°C for simulated sludge and Aquaset II was observed with attenuation factors around 100 to 200 at 1 M nitrate. Valuable additional information has been obtained on the ability of nitrate to attenuate hydrogen gas generation from solution, simulant K Basin sludge, and simulant sludge with immobilization agents. Details on characteristics of the associated reactions were also obtained. The present testing confirms prior work which indicates that nitrate is an effective agent to attenuate hydrogen from uranium metal corrosion in water and simulated K Basin sludge to show that it is also effective in potential candidate solidified K Basin waste forms for WIPP disposal. The hydrogen mitigation afforded by nitrate appears to be sufficient to meet the hydrogen generation limits for shipping various sludge waste streams based on uranium metal concentrations and assumed waste form loadings.

  6. Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Uranium Metal with Water in K Basin Sludge and Sludge Waste Forms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkov, Sergey I.; Delegard, Calvin H.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2011-01-01

    corrosion rates in water alone and in simulated sludge were near or slightly below the metal-in-water rate while nitrate-free sludge/Aquaset II decreased rates by about a factor of 3. Addition of 1 M nitrate to simulated sludge decreased the corrosion rate by a factor of ∼5 while 1 M nitrate in sludge/Aquaset II mixtures decreased the corrosion rate by ∼2.5 compared with the nitrate-free analogues. Mixtures of simulated sludge with Aquaset II treated with 1 M nitrate had uranium corrosion rates about a factor of 8 to 10 lower than the water-only rate law. Nitrate was found to provide substantial hydrogen mitigation for immobilized simulant sludge waste forms containing Aquaset II or Aquaset II G clay. Hydrogen attenuation factors of 1000 or greater were determined at 60 C for sludge-clay mixtures at 1 M nitrate. Hydrogen mitigation for tests with PC and Aquaset II H (which contains PC) were inconclusive because of suspected failure to overcome induction times and fully enter into anoxic corrosion. Lessening of hydrogen attenuation at ∼80 C and ∼95 C for simulated sludge and Aquaset II was observed with attenuation factors around 100 to 200 at 1 M nitrate. Valuable additional information has been obtained on the ability of nitrate to attenuate hydrogen gas generation from solution, simulant K Basin sludge, and simulant sludge with immobilization agents. Details on characteristics of the associated reactions were also obtained. The present testing confirms prior work which indicates that nitrate is an effective agent to attenuate hydrogen from uranium metal corrosion in water and simulated K Basin sludge to show that it is also effective in potential candidate solidified K Basin waste forms for WIPP disposal. The hydrogen mitigation afforded by nitrate appears to be sufficient to meet the hydrogen generation limits for shipping various sludge waste streams based on uranium metal concentrations and assumed waste form loadings.

  7. Algal capture of carbon dioxide; biomass generation as a tool for greenhouse gas mitigation with reference to New Zealand energy strategy and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Packer, Mike

    2009-01-01

    The use of algae to capture carbon dioxide as a method for greenhouse gas mitigation is discussed. A small fraction of the sunlight energy that bathes Earth is captured by photosynthesis and drives most living systems. Life on Earth is carbon-based and the energy is used to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide into biological material (biomass), indeed fossil fuels that we consume today are a legacy of mostly algal photosynthesis. Algae can be thought of as marine and freshwater plants that have higher photosynthetic efficiencies than terrestrial plants and are more efficient capturing carbon (Box 1). They have other favourable characteristics for this purpose. In the context of New Zealand energy strategy and policy I discuss progress in growing algae and seaweeds with emphasis on their application for exhaust flue carbon recycling for possible generation of useful biomass. I also introduce schemes utilising wild oceanic algae for carbon dioxide sequestration and the merits and possible adverse effects of using this approach. This paper is designed as an approachable review of the science and technology for policy makers and a summary of the New Zealand policy environment for those wishing to deploy biological carbon sequestration.

  8. Greenhouse gas balances and mitigation costs of 70 modern Germany-focused and 4 traditional biomass pathways including land-use change effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterner, Michael; Fritsche, Uwe

    2011-01-01

    With Germany as the point of energy end-use, 70 current and future modern pathways plus 4 traditional biomass pathways for heat, power and transport have been compiled and examined in one single greenhouse gas (GHG) balancing assessment. This is needed to broaden the narrow focus on biofuels for transport and identify the role of bioenergy in GHG mitigation. Sensitivity analysis for land-use changes and fossil reference systems are included. Co-firing of woody biomass and fermentation of waste biomass are the most cost-efficient and effective biomass applications for GHG emission reduction in modern pathways. Replacing traditional biomass with modern biomass applications offers an underestimated economic potential of GHG emission reduction. The range of maximum CO 2 equivalent GHG reduction potential of bioenergy is identified in a range of 2.5–16 Gt a −1 in 2050 (5–33% of today’s global GHG emissions), and has an economic bioenergy potential of 150 EJ a −1 .

  9. Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

  10. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  11. Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

    2017-12-01

    India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

  12. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  13. Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Holling

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

  14. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  15. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  16. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  17. The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

  18. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions--Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

    2015-09-15

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to "neutralize" the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All

  19. FROM THE COLOR-MAGNITUDE DIAGRAM OF {omega} CENTAURI AND (SUPER-)ASYMPTOTIC GIANT BRANCH STELLAR MODELS TO A GALACTIC PLANE PASSAGE GAS PURGING CHEMICAL EVOLUTION SCENARIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herwig, Falk; VandenBerg, Don A.; Navarro, Julio F. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3055, Victoria, BC V8W 3P6 (Canada); Ferguson, Jason [Department of Physics, Wichita State University Wichita, KS 67260 (United States); Paxton, Bill, E-mail: fherwig@uvic.ca, E-mail: vandenbe@uvic.ca, E-mail: jason.ferguson@wichita.edu, E-mail: paxton@kitp.ucsb.edu [KITP/UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States)

    2012-10-01

    We have investigated the color-magnitude diagram of {omega} Centauri and find that the blue main sequence (bMS) can be reproduced only by models that have a helium abundance in the range Y = 0.35-0.40. To explain the faint subgiant branch of the reddest stars ('MS-a/RG-a' sequence), isochrones for the observed metallicity ([Fe/H] Almost-Equal-To -0.7) appear to require both a high age ({approx}13 Gyr) and enhanced CNO abundances ([CNO/Fe] Almost-Equal-To 0.9). Y Almost-Equal-To 0.35 must also be assumed in order to counteract the effects of high CNO on turnoff colors and thereby to obtain a good fit to the relatively blue turnoff of this stellar population. This suggests a short chemical evolution period of time (<1 Gyr) for {omega} Cen. Our intermediate-mass (super-)asymptotic giant branch (AGB) models are able to reproduce the high helium abundances, along with [N/Fe] {approx}2 and substantial O depletions if uncertainties in the treatment of convection are fully taken into account. These abundance features distinguish the bMS stars from the dominant [Fe/H] Almost-Equal-To -1.7 population. The most massive super-AGB stellar models (M{sub ZAMS} {>=} 6.8 M{sub Sun }, M{sub He,core} {>=} 1.245 M{sub Sun }) predict too large N enhancements, which limit their role in contributing to the extreme populations. In order to address the observed central concentration of stars with He-rich abundance, we show here quantitatively that highly He- and N-enriched AGB ejecta have particularly efficient cooling properties. Based on these results and on the reconstruction of the orbit of {omega} Cen with respect to the Milky Way, we propose the Galactic plane passage gas purging scenario for the chemical evolution of this cluster. The bMS population formed shortly after the purging of most of the cluster gas as a result of the passage of {omega} Cen through the Galactic disk (which occurs today every {approx}40 Myr for {omega} Cen) when the initial mass function of the

  20. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    radiative forcing as e.g. described in the RCPs). Each combination of an SSP and a radiative forcing level (represented in a matrix, hence matrix approach) defines a family of macro-scale scenarios. A variety of adaptation and mitigation policies are compatible with each family of macro-scale scenarios (i.e. matrix cells). Shared climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs) define a third axis that includes information on mitigation and adaptation policies, e.g. global and sectoral coverage of greenhouse gas reduction regimes, and the aggressiveness of adaptation in different world regions. This approach facilitates investigation and comparison of different policies, something that was challenging under previous scenario frameworks. For any combination of SSP, RCP, and SPA, there will be a number of possible climate change projections that are associated with a different model of the physical climate system, adding another dimension to each cell. The resultant scenarios can be used for individual research projects and for integrated assessments of mitigation, adaptation, and residual climate impacts. (LN)

  1. Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

  2. Effects of high energy prices on scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Final report; Energiepreise und Klimaschutz. Wirkung hoher Energietraegerpreise auf die CO{sub 2}-Emissionsminderung bis 2030. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix Christian; Graichen, Verena; Harthan, Ralph O.; Repenning, Julia [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany); Horn, Manfred [DIW Berlin (Germany); Krey, Volker; Markewitz, Peter; Martinsen, Dag [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe STE

    2008-05-15

    Against the background of high increases in the prices of the primary energy carriers crude oil, natural gas and hard coal, which are traded on international markets, three scenarios of the price development of the most important energy carriers are developed. Using energy price assumptions, a scenario analysis is undertaken with regard to the development of CO{sub 2} emissions in Germany as a whole as well as in terms of the different energy sectors. The emission scenarios are analysed with respect to the electricity industry in Germany using both IKARUS, the energy system model geared towards macroeconomic optimisation, and ELIAS, the sector model based on microeconomic considerations. The model analyses are supplemented by an overview of literature with regard to similar model analyses. (orig.)

  3. Mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emission and implications on fuel consumption due to clean energy vehicles as public passenger transport in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: A case study of trolley buses in Ring Road

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradhan, Shreekar; Ale, Bhakta Bahadur; Amatya, Vishwa Bhusan

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates the consequences in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission due to the possible intervention of the electric run trolley buses in the existing public transport system in a particular road up to the year 2025 in Kathmandu Valley. It projects the scenarios on the basis that the passenger travel demand is the function of population and income. Basically, it uses the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System software to develop Business as Usual scenario and the five alternative scenarios. The alternative scenarios are 100% replacement of vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes, 50% replacement, 25% replacement, stopping future growth of other vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes and 25% replacement in the first year, and combination scenarios. The results estimate that the passenger travel demand will increase by three folds from the year 2003 to the year 2025. It projects the three-fold increase of the existing vehicle activity by the year 2025 in Business as Usual scenario. The fuel consumption will increase by 2.4 times compared to the year 2003. It estimates the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission as 8.5 thousands tons in year 2003 which will increase by more than 3 times in year 2025. It estimates that 174.3 thousands t CO 2 e can be avoided in combination scenario. The paper concludes that the intervention of clean energy transport in the existing public transport can have a significant positive impact on the GHG emission and current fuel consumption

  4. Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

    2003-07-01

    This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

  5. U.S. regional greenhouse gas emissions analysis comparing highly resolved vehicle miles traveled and CO2 emissions: mitigation implications and their effect on atmospheric measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and projections of fossil fuel energy demand show CO2 concentrations increasing indefinitely into the future. After electricity production, the transportation sector is the second largest CO2 emitting economic sector in the United States, accounting for 32.3% of the total U.S. emissions in 2002. Over 80% of the transport sector is composed of onroad emissions, with the remainder shared by the nonroad, aircraft, railroad, and commercial marine vessel transportation. In order to construct effective mitigation policy for the onroad transportation sector and more accurately predict CO2 emissions for use in transport models and atmospheric measurements, analysis must incorporate the three components that determine the CO2 onroad transport emissions: vehicle fleet composition, average speed of travel, and emissions regulation strategies. Studies to date, however, have either focused on one of these three components, have been only completed at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO2 emissions instead relying on the use of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as an emissions proxy. National-level projections of VMT growth is not sufficient to highlight regional differences in CO2 emissions growth due to the heterogeneity of vehicle fleet and each state’s road network which determines the speed of travel of vehicles. We examine how an analysis based on direct CO2 emissions and an analysis based on VMT differ in terms of their emissions and mitigation implications highlighting potential biases introduced by the VMT-based approach. This analysis is performed at the US state level and results are disaggregated by road and vehicle classification. We utilize the results of the Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions inventory which quantified emissions for the year 2002 across all economic sectors in the US at high resolution. We perform this comparison by fuel type,12 road types, and 12 vehicle types

  6. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  7. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Witteloostuijn, van (Arjen); S. Brakman (Steven); J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractAs part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority—DTe—has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise—Gas Transport Services, or GTS—to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the

  8. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witteloostuijn , van Arjen; Brakman, S.; van Marrewijk, C.

    2007-01-01

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority-DTe-has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise-Gas Transport Services, or GTS-to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed,

  9. Monitoring and mitigating measures to reduce potential impacts of oil and gas exploration and development on bears in the Inuvik region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branigan, M. [Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvik, NT (Canada). Dept. of Environment and Natural Resources

    2007-07-01

    The Inuvik Region consists of the Northwest Territories portion of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and the Gwich'in Settlement Area. The range of grizzly bears, polar bears and black bears extends to different parts of the region. The potential impact of development depends on the season of the development and the species of bear found in the footprint. As such, monitoring and mitigation measures should take this into consideration. This presentation focused on the potential impacts and current practices to monitor and mitigate the impacts in the region. Mitigation measures currently used include: communication with stakeholders; waste management guidelines; use of wildlife monitors to identify key habitat and den sites and to deter bears; minimum flight altitudes; and safety training. Suggestions for additional mitigation measures were also presented. figs.

  10. Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Mercedes; Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Harper, Richard; Mbow, Cheikh; Ravindranat, Nijavalli H; Sperling, Frank; Haberl, Helmut; Pinto, Alexandre de Siqueira; Smith, Pete

    2014-10-01

    The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces

  11. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dace, Elina, E-mail: elina.dace@rtu.lv [Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes 12/1, Riga LV1048 (Latvia); Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra [Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes 12/1, Riga LV1048 (Latvia); Kaczala, Fabio [Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, Linnaeus University, SE-39182 Kalmar (Sweden)

    2015-09-15

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to “neutralize” the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. - Highlights:

  12. Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to “neutralize” the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. - Highlights:

  13. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  14. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  15. Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

    2008-01-01

    Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

  16. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  17. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  18. Japan’s Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 – Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Ryoichi Komiyama; Chris Marnay; Michael Stadler; Judy Lai; Sam Borgeson; Brian Coffey; Inês Lima Azevedo

    2009-01-01

    In this analysis, we projected Japans energy demand/supply and energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050. Our analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japans CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005) (Figure 1). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO2 emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservatio...

  19. Fuel carbon intensity standards may not mitigate climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plevin, Richard J.; Delucchi, Mark A.; O’Hare, Michael

    2017-01-01

    To mitigate the climate change effects of transportation, the US states of California and Oregon, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and the European Union have implemented regulations to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of transport fuel, commonly referred to as 'carbon intensity', or CI. In this article, we unpack the theory and practice of fuel CI standards, examining claims regarding climate-change mitigation. We show that these standards do not reliably mitigate climate change because estimates of GHG reductions rely primarily on models that are not designed to estimate changes in emissions and climate impacts. Some regulations incorporate models that estimate a subset of changes in emissions, but the models must project changes in global markets over decades, and there is little agreement about the best model structure or parameter values. Since multiple models and projections may be equally plausible, fuel CI is inevitably subjective and unverifiable. We conclude that regulating or taxing observable emissions would more reliably achieve emission reduction. - Highlights: • Use of fuel carbon intensity (CI) standards has been expanding recently. • Fuel CI ratings are subjective, scenario- and model-dependent. • Uncertainty in fuel CI ratings creates uncertainty in policy outcomes. • There is no reliable test of whether fuel CI standards mitigate climate change. • Regulating or taxing observable emissions would be a more reliable approach.

  20. Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

    OpenAIRE

    Prof Anil Markandya, PhD; Jon Sampedro, MSc; Steven J Smith, PhD; Rita Van Dingenen, PhD; Cristina Pizarro-Irizar, PhD; Prof Iñaki Arto, PhD; Prof Mikel González-Eguino, PhD

    2018-01-01

    Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which ...

  1. Net climate change mitigation of the Clean Development Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erickson, Peter; Lazarus, Michael; Spalding-Fecher, Randall

    2014-01-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has allowed industrialized countries to buy credits from developing countries for the purpose of meeting targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In principle, the CDM simply shifts the location of emission reductions, with no net mitigation impact. Departing from this zero-sum calculus, the Cancun Agreements reached at the sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2010 called for “one or more market-based mechanisms” capable of “ensuring a net decrease and/or avoidance of global greenhouse gas emissions”, an intention reiterated at COP 17 and COP 18. This article explores the extent to which the CDM may or may not already lead to such a “net decrease.” It finds that the CDM's net mitigation impact likely hinges on the additionality of large-scale power projects, which are expected to generate the majority of CDM credits going forward. If these projects are truly additional and continue to operate well beyond the credit issuance period, they will decrease global greenhouse gas emissions. However, if they are mostly non-additional, as research suggests, they could increase global greenhouse gas emissions. The article closes with a discussion of possible means to increase mitigation benefit. - Highlights: • The CDM's method for assessing additionality remains controversial and contested. • We develop two scenarios of the net emissions impact of the CDM. • The integrity of the CDM hinges on the emissions impact of power supply projects. • Additionality is hard to demonstrate with confidence for most power-supply projects. • A number of options are available to increase the mitigation benefit of the CDM

  2. Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

  3. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  4. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    -term - at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year- 1 incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation...

  5. Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The French government has decided to modify the conditions of extension of local natural gas authorities to neighbouring districts. The European Union is studying the conditions of internal gas market with the objective of more open markets although considering public service requirements

  6. Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

  7. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

  8. Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Cuenot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

  9. Final Report. SFAA No. DEFC02-98CH10961. Technical assistance for joint implementation and other supporting mechanisms and measures for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knight, Denise

    2001-10-15

    IIEC, a division of CERF, has developed an extensive base of experience implementing activities that support climate action by developing USIJI projects in transitional countries within Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and southern Africa. IIEC has been able to provide a range of technical and policy assistance to governments and industry in support of sustainable energy use. IIEC continues to work in key countries with local partners to develop and implement energy efficiency policies and standards, develop site-specific projects, and assist governing bodies to establish national priorities and evaluation criteria for approving GHG-mitigation projects. As part of this project, IIEC focused on promoting a series of activities in Thailand and South Africa in order to identify GHG mitigation projects and work within the national approval process of those countries. The sections of this report outline the activities conducted in each country in order to achieve that goal.

  10. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

  11. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Chang H., E-mail: Chang.Oh@inl.gov [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3870 (United States); Kim, Eung Soo [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, 559 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts

  12. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  13. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  14. Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

  15. Rent distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market. A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Witteloostuijn, A.; Brakman, S.; Van Marrewijk, C.

    2005-09-01

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch Office of Energy Regulation (DTe) has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise (Gas Transport Services GTS) to lower its prices. In this report, we simulate the welfare effects of a five per cent transport price reduction. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. However, at least three observations complicate matters substantially: Observation 1: government ownership. GTS is government -owned, and the dominant shipper (Gasunie Trade and Supply) is partly so (50 %). Hence, lost revenues from the gas transport business will all emerge at the debit side of the government's budget, and part of the shippers' rent returns in the government's pockets. Observation 2: imperfect competition. Firms enter into the competitive game to make profits. Shippers are not different. So, apart from in the extreme case of perfect competition (or, more generally, perfect contestability), part of the rents will end up in the pockets of the shippers, rather than the endconsumers. Observation 3: rent export. The Netherlands are not an isolated island in the European gas ocean. Not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but apart from that have foreign owners a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, given the fact that the Dutch industry is not autarktic, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will always 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other (Observation 1). Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the endconsumers (Observation 2). Third, it is unavoidable

  16. Welfare distribution effect of a price reduction in the Dutch gas transport market: A scenario analysis of regulatory policy, market form and rent allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Van Marrewijk, Charles

    2007-01-01

    As part of the larger energy market deregulation program, the Dutch energy authority - DTe - has developed the habit to force the Dutch gas transport enterprise - Gas Transport Services, or GTS - to lower its prices. DTe's key argument is that lower gas transport prices will benefit the end-user. Indeed, that might well be the case. This policy, in general, is in line with European legislation on the liberalization of the gas market. We model and simulate the (domestic) welfare effects of a 5 percent transport price reduction. From this, we conclude that at least three observations complicate matters substantially. First, GTS is government-owned, and the dominant shipper - Gasunie Trade and Supply (or GasTerra, as it was recoined recently) - is partly so (50%). Second, shippers enter into the competitive game to make profits. Third, not only is the majority of gas transported in the Netherlands exported to foreign end-users, but also foreign owners have a large stake in Dutch shippers. As a result, part of the rents will always be distributed, or will 'leak' away, to foreign consumers and shippers (or their shareholders). These three observations together have three important implications. First, state ownership implies that much rent allocation is simply a matter of circulating money from one government sub-budget to the other. Second, given that the industry is imperfectly competitive, part of the rents will not be passed on to the end-consumers. Third, it is unavoidable that a substantial part of the rents are transferred abroad. A general conclusion for policy-makers is that market liberalization might not bring ex post what they expected ex ante. (author)

  17. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  18. Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

  19. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  20. Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Fadel, M.; Zeinati, M.; Ghaddar, N.; Mezher, T.

    2001-01-01

    Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon, being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly, an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29% to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17%, respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical, economic, environmental, and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose, theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (author)

  1. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  2. Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

  3. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation And Agriculture, Trade-off Or Win-win Situation: Bioeconomic Farm Modelling In The Sudanian Area of Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, T. E.; Barbier, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes talks regularly underline that developing countries' agriculture could play a stronger role in GHGs mitigation strategies and benefit from the Kyoto Protocol program of subsidies. Scientists explain that agriculture can contribute to carbon mitigation by storing more carbon in the soil through greener cropping systems. In this context, a growing number of research projects have started to investigate how developing countries agriculture can contribute to these objectives. The clean development mechanism (CDM) proposed in the Kyoto protocol is one particular policy instrument that can incite farmers to mitigate the GHG balance towards more sequestration and less emission. Some economists such as Michael Porter think that environmental regulation lead to a win-win outcome, in which case subsidies are not necessary. If it is a trade-off between incomes and the environment, subsidies are required. CDM can be mobilized to support the mitigation strategy. Agriculture implies the use of inputs. Reducing the emission implies the reduction of those inputs which will in turn imply a yield decrease. The study aims to assess whether this measure will imply a trade-off between environmental and economic objectives or a win-win situation. I apply this study to the case of small farmers in Burkina Faso through environmental instruments such as the emissions limits and agroforestry using a bioeconomic model, in which the farmers maximize their utility subject to constraints. The study finds that the limitation of emissions in annual crops production involves a trade-off. by impacting negatively their net cash come. By integrating perennial crops in the farming system, the farmers' utility increases. Around 6,118 kg are sequestrated individually. By computing the value on this carbon balance, farmers' net cash incomes go better. Then practicing agroforestry is a win-win situation, as they reach a higher level of income, and reduce emissions. Policymakers must

  4. Economic assessment and energy model scenarios of municipal solid waste incineration and gas turbine hybrid dual-fueled cycles in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udomsri, Seksan; Martin, Andrew R.; Fransson, Torsten H.

    2010-01-01

    Finding environmentally benign methods related to sound municipal solid waste (MSW) management is of highest priority in Southeast Asia. It is very important to study new approaches which can reduce waste generation and simultaneously enhance energy recovery. One concrete example of particular significance is the concept of hybrid dual-fuel power plants featuring MSW and another high-quality fuel like natural gas. The hybrid dual-fuel cycles provide significantly higher electrical efficiencies than a composite of separate single-fuel power plant (standalone gas turbine combined cycle and MSW incineration). Although hybrid versions are of great importance for energy conversion from MSW, an economic assessment of these systems must be addressed for a realistic appraisal of these technologies. This paper aims to further examine an economic assessment and energy model analysis of different conversion technologies. Energy models are developed to further refine the expected potential of MSW incineration with regards to energy recovery and environmental issues. Results show that MSW incineration can play role for greenhouse gas reduction, energy recovery and waste management. In Bangkok, the electric power production via conventional incineration and hybrid power plants can cover 2.5% and 8% of total electricity consumption, respectively. The hybrid power plants have a relative short payback period (5 years) and can further reduce the CO 2 levels by 3% in comparison with current thermal power plants.

  5. Electrification and Decarbonization: Exploring U.S. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bielen, Dave [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eichman, Josh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wilson, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-07-19

    Electrification of end-use services in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors coupled with decarbonization of electricity generation has been identified as one of the key pathways to achieving a low-carbon future in the United States. By lowering the carbon intensity of the electricity generation and substituting electricity for higher-emissions fossil fuels in end-use sectors, significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. This report describes a preliminary analysis that examines the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the U.S. energy sector. We develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is aggressively pursued across all end-use sectors and examine the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on electricity load patterns, total fossil energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and the evolution of the U.S. power system.

  6. Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

  7. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  8. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engström

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  9. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  10. Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries F.; Pfluger, Benjamin; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Girod, Bastien; Ruijven, Bas J. van

    2013-01-01

    Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO 2 -equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers. - Highlights: ► We model the effects of 15 climate change mitigation measures in Europe. ► We assess the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential in different sectors. ► The measures could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% below 1990 levels in 2050. ► The approach allows to explore arguably more relevant climate policy scenarios

  11. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  12. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  13. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  14. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-01-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  15. What Is the Contribution of City-Scale Actions to the Overall Food System's Environmental Impacts?: Assessing Water, Greenhouse Gas, and Land Impacts of Future Urban Food Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Dana; Ramaswami, Anu

    2017-10-17

    This paper develops a methodology for individual cities to use to analyze the in- and trans-boundary water, greenhouse gas (GHG), and land impacts of city-scale food system actions. Applied to Delhi, India, the analysis demonstrates that city-scale action can rival typical food policy interventions that occur at larger scales, although no single city-scale action can rival in all three environmental impacts. In particular, improved food-waste management within the city (7% system-wide GHG reduction) matches the GHG impact of preconsumer trans-boundary food waste reduction. The systems approach is particularly useful in illustrating key trade-offs and co-benefits. For instance, multiple diet shifts that can reduce GHG emissions have trade-offs that increase water and land impacts. Vertical farming technology (VFT) with current applications for fruits and vegetables can provide modest system-wide water (4%) and land reductions (3%), although implementation within the city itself may raise questions of constraints in water-stressed cities, with such a shift in Delhi increasing community-wide direct water use by 16%. Improving the nutrition status for the bottom 50% of the population to the median diet is accompanied by proportionally smaller increases of water, GHG, and land impacts (4%, 9%, and 8%, systemwide): increases that can be offset through simultaneous city-scale actions, e.g., improved food-waste management and VFT.

  16. Comparison of turbulence mitigation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozacik, Stephen T.; Paolini, Aaron; Sherman, Ariel; Bonnett, James; Kelmelis, Eric

    2017-07-01

    When capturing imagery over long distances, atmospheric turbulence often degrades the data, especially when observation paths are close to the ground or in hot environments. These issues manifest as time-varying scintillation and warping effects that decrease the effective resolution of the sensor and reduce actionable intelligence. In recent years, several image processing approaches to turbulence mitigation have shown promise. Each of these algorithms has different computational requirements, usability demands, and degrees of independence from camera sensors. They also produce different degrees of enhancement when applied to turbulent imagery. Additionally, some of these algorithms are applicable to real-time operational scenarios while others may only be suitable for postprocessing workflows. EM Photonics has been developing image-processing-based turbulence mitigation technology since 2005. We will compare techniques from the literature with our commercially available, real-time, GPU-accelerated turbulence mitigation software. These comparisons will be made using real (not synthetic), experimentally obtained data for a variety of conditions, including varying optical hardware, imaging range, subjects, and turbulence conditions. Comparison metrics will include image quality, video latency, computational complexity, and potential for real-time operation. Additionally, we will present a technique for quantitatively comparing turbulence mitigation algorithms using real images of radial resolution targets.

  17. The role of nuclear energy in mitigating greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-01-01

    A behavioral, top-down, forced-equilibrium market model of long-term (∼ 2,100) global energy-economics interactions has been modified with a bottom-up nuclear energy model and used to construct consistent scenarios describing future impacts of civil nuclear materials flows in an expanding, multi-regional (13) world economy. The relative measures and tradeoffs between economic (GNP, tax impacts, productivity, etc.), environmental (greenhouse gas accumulations, waste accumulation, proliferation risk), and energy (resources, energy mixes, supply-side versus demand-side attributes) interactions that emerge from these analyses are focused herein on advancing understanding of the role that nuclear energy (and other non-carbon energy sources) might play in mitigating greenhouse warming. Two ostensibly opposing scenario drivers are investigated: (a) demand-side improvements in (non-price-induced) autonomous energy efficiency improvements; and (b) supply-side carbon-tax inducements to shift energy mixes towards reduced- or non-carbon forms. In terms of stemming greenhouse warming for minimal cost of greenhouse-gas abatement, and with the limitations of the simplified taxing schedule used, a symbiotic combination of these two approaches may offer advantages not found if each is applied separately

  18. Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

  19. The role of China in mitigating climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey; Morris, Jennifer; Cai, Yongxia; Karplus, Valerie; Jacoby, Henry

    2012-01-01

    We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China's role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China's energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China's commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2 °C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1 °C to 1.3 °C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. - Highlights: ► It is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies. ► China's mitigation actions proposed for 2015 and 2020 are reachable at modest costs. ► Meeting 2 °C target is problematic without radical GHG emissions reductions.

  20. Synechococcus nidulans from a thermoelectric coal power plant as a potential CO2 mitigation in culture medium containing flue gas wastes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Jessica Hartwig; Costa, Jorge Alberto Vieira

    2017-10-01

    This study evaluated the intermittent addition of coal flue gas wastes (CO 2 , SO 2 , NO and ash) into a Synechococcus nidulans LEB 115 cultivation in terms of growth parameters, CO 2 biofixation and biomass characterization. The microalga from a coal thermoelectric plant showed tolerance up to 200ppm SO 2 and NO, with a maximum specific growth rate of 0.18±0.03d - 1 . The addition of thermal coal ash to the cultivation increased the Synechococcus nidulans LEB 115 maximum cell growth by approximately 1.3 times. The best CO 2 biofixation efficiency was obtained with 10% CO 2 , 60ppm SO 2 , 100ppm NO and 40ppm ash (55.0±3.1%). The biomass compositions in the assays were similar, with approximately 9.8% carbohydrates, 13.5% lipids and 62.7% proteins. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The potential contribution to climate change mitigation from temporary carbon storage in biomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

    2015-01-01

    of biomaterials.The recently developed approach for quantifying the climate tipping potential (CTP) of emissions is used, with some adaption, to account for the value of temporary carbon storage. CTP values for short-, medium- and long-term carbon storage in chosen biomaterials are calculated for two possible...... future atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration development scenarios. The potential magnitude of the temporary carbon storage in biomaterials is estimated by considering the global polymer production being biobased in the future.Both sets of CTP values show the same trend; storage which releases...... contributes with negative CTP values, which means mitigation. The longer the duration of the storage, the larger the mitigation potential.Temporary carbon storage in biomaterials has a potential for contributing to avoid or postpone the crossing of a climatic target level of 450 ppm CO2e, depending on GHG...

  2. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2013-01-01

    The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

  3. Surface damage mitigation of TC4 alloy via micro arc oxidation for oil and gas exploitation application: Characterizations of microstructure and evaluations on surface performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Ruizhen; Lin, Naiming; Zhou, Peng; Zou, Jiaojuan; Han, Pengju; Wang, Zhihua; Tang, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Because of its excellent corrosion resistance, high specific strength and high tensile strength, TC4 titanium alloys used as petroleum tubes have received wide interest from material engineers after many technical investigations and estimations. However, because of its low surface hardness values, high coefficient of friction and poor wear resistance, the TC4 alloy is seldom adopted in tribological-related engineering components. In this work, micro-arc oxidation (MAO) coatings were fabricated on TC4 alloys in NaAlO2 and (NaPO3)6 electrolytes with and without ultrasonic assistance. The microstructural characterizations of the produced MAO coatings were investigated. Comparative estimations of electrochemical corrosion in CO2-saturated simulated oilfield brine and tribological behaviours on MAO coatings and TC4 alloys were conducted. The results showed that the introduction of ultrasound increased the thickness of the MAO coatings. The thickness increased by 34% and 15% in the NaAlO2 and (NaPO3)6 electrolytes, respectively. There was no significant discrepancy i