Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

2010-07-01

For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

2004-01-01

Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.

2017-10-01

This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

Science.gov (United States)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

1994-01-01

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

1998-12-31

Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin-Gorriz, B.; Soto-García, M.; Martínez-Alvarez, V.

2014-01-01

Global warming is leading to a water resources decrease in the Mediterranean basin, where future farming resilience depends on incorporating alternative water sources and improving water-energy use efficiency. This paper assesses water and energy consumption when natural water sources are partially replaced by desalinated sea water. Initially, energy consumption, water supply and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions were recorded for the current farming practices in SE (southeast) Spain. The results of our study indicate that citrus orchards have the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions. Annual vegetables were the least energy efficient crops. Subsequently, two alternative water supply scenarios were analysed, in which the reduction of natural water resources associated to climate change was compensated with desalinated sea water. The use of 16.8% of desalinated seawater would increase energy consumption by 32.4% and GHG emissions by 19.6%, whereas for the use of 26.5% of desalinated seawater such increases would amount to 50.0% and 30.3%, respectively. Therefore maintaining irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions by incorporating high energy demanding non-traditional water sources could negatively contribute to combat global warming. - Highlights: • Water supply, energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in irrigated agriculture are very connected. • The use of desalinated sea water will increase the energy consumption, and GHG emissions will rise. • The use of non-traditional water resources enhances global warming processes. • Citrus orchards are the less sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios. • Artichoke is the most sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

2011-01-01

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-07-15

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

2014-01-01

Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey

2014-01-01

Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions ...

Science.gov (United States)

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At high leakage levels, these methane emissions could outweigh the benefits of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is asked to meet a specific CO2 reduction target and the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production. While the total CO2 emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total greenhouse gas emissions show an increase or no change when both natural gas availability and methane emissions from natural gas production are high. Article presents summary of results from an analyses of natural gas resource availability and power sector emissions reduction strategies under different estimates of methane leakage rates during natural gas extraction and production. This was study was undertaken as part of the Energy Modeling Forum Study #31:

Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

McLeod, Jeffrey

The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

2012-01-01

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries F.; Pfluger, Benjamin; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Girod, Bastien; Ruijven, Bas J. van

2013-01-01

Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO 2 -equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers. - Highlights: ► We model the effects of 15 climate change mitigation measures in Europe. ► We assess the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential in different sectors. ► The measures could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% below 1990 levels in 2050. ► The approach allows to explore arguably more relevant climate policy scenarios

The Impact of a Potential Shale Gas Development in Germany and the United Kingdom on Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Weger, L.; Cremonese, L.; Bartels, M. P.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Several European countries with domestic shale gas reserves are considering extracting this natural gas resource to complement their energy transition agenda. Natural gas, which produces lower CO2 emissions upon combustion compared to coal or oil, has the potential to serve as a bridge in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. However, the generation of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and pollutants such as PM, NOx and VOCs, which in turn impact climate as well as local and regional air quality. In this study, we explore the impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, specifically in Germany and the United Kingdom, on emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants. In order to investigate the effect on emissions, we first estimate a range of wells drilled per year and production volume for the two countries under examination based on available geological information and on regional infrastructural and economic limitations. Subsequently we assign activity data and emissions factors to the well development, gas production and processing stages of shale gas generation to enable emissions quantification. We then define emissions scenarios to explore different storylines of potential shale gas development, including low emissions (high level of regulation), high emissions (low level of regulation) and middle emissions scenarios, which influence fleet make-up, emission factor and activity data choices for emissions quantification. The aim of this work is to highlight important variables and their ranges, to promote discussion and communication of potential impacts, and to construct possible visions for a future shale gas development in the two study countries. In a follow-up study, the impact of pollutant emissions from these scenarios on air quality will be explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model.

Agricultural sources of greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rochette, P.

2003-01-01

The author described different sources of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural activities and the process by which carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane are generated on Canadian farms. The author also proposed some practices that would contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. A brief description of the greenhouse effect was also provided with special emphasis on the agricultural sector. In 1996, the Canadian agricultural sector was responsible for approximately 10 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in the country. Given the increase in farm animals and more intensive agricultural activities, it is estimated that greenhouse gas emissions generated by the agricultural sector will increase by 20 per cent by 2010 if current practices remain in effect. The most optimistic scenarios indicate that the agricultural sector could achieve or even exceed Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitments mainly through organic material sequestration in soils. The possibility for farmers to sell greenhouse gas credits could motivate farmers into adopting various practices that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. However, the author indicated that the best motivation for farmers is the fact that adopting such practices would also lead to more efficient agricultural production. 5 refs., 4 figs

Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

2003-07-01

This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

Investigating GHGs and VOCs emissions from a shale gas industry in Germany and the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Cremonese, L.; Weger, L.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Bartels, M. P.; Butler, T. M.

2017-12-01

The shale gas and shale oil production boom experienced in the US led the country to a significant reduction of foreign fuel imports and an increase in domestic energy security. Several European countries are considering to extract domestic shale gas reserves that might serve as a bridge in the transition to renewables. Nevertheless, the generation of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and pollutants such as PM, NOx and VOCs, which in turn impact local and regional air quality and climate. Results from numerous studies investigating greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions from shale oil and shale gas extraction in North America can help in estimating the impact of such industrial activity elsewhere, when local regulations are taken into consideration. In order to investigate the extent of emissions and their distribution from a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom, we develop three drilling scenarios compatible with desired national gas outputs based on available geological information on potential productivity ranges of the reservoirs. Subsequently we assign activity data and emissions factors to wells under development, as well as to producing wells (from activities at the well site up until processing plants) to enable emissions quantification. We then define emissions scenarios to explore different shale gas development pathways: 1) implementation of "high-technology" devices and recovery practices (low emissions); 2) implementation of "low-technology" devices and recovery practices (high emissions), and 3) intermediate scenarios reflecting assumptions on local and national settings, or extremely high emission events (e.g. super-emitters); all with high and low boundaries of confidence driven by uncertainties. A comparison of these unconventional gas production scenarios to conventional natural gas production in Germany and the United Kingdom is also planned. The aim of this work is to highlight important variables and their ranges, to

Potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the use of mobility services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grischkat, Sylvie; Hunecke, Marcel; Böhler, Susanne

2014-01-01

gas emissions per person and year was found to be 78 kg in an optimistic scenario and 25 kg in a pessimistic scenario. Extrapolated to the German metropolitan population, behaviour-related measures alone could result in a 1.8 million ton (optimistic scenario) or 0.6 million ton (pessimistic scenario......This study evaluates potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the passenger transport sector achievable through the use of mobility services. Beside car-sharing and -pooling, six services targeted at improving and encouraging the use of urban public transportation were considered......) reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. In order to exploit this potential fully, however, target group specific information should be obtained and communication strategies developed, as addressed in this paper. This study further presents the limitation of reduction potential quantification...

Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, C.R.

2008-08-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

The methane emissions of the Swiss gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xinmin, J.

2004-01-01

This article presents a method for the estimation of the methane emissions caused by the Swiss gas industry. Based on new data on the Swiss gas infrastructure, current emission levels are estimated for methane - one of the major greenhouse gases. The methodology and modelling used, which is based on previous studies on this topic, are discussed. Results are presented that show that the estimates provided by the current study are consistent with earlier data. Scenarios are presented that show that a steady decrease in methane emissions emanating from the Swiss gas industry's installations can be expected by the year 2012. The data used in the study and its results are presented in tabular and graphical form and commented on

Comparing the greenhouse gas emissions from three alternative waste combustion concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Vainikka, Pasi; Tsupari, Eemeli; Sipilä, Kai; Hupa, Mikko

2012-03-01

Three alternative condensing mode power and combined heat and power (CHP) waste-to-energy concepts were compared in terms of their impacts on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a heat and power generation system. The concepts included (i) grate, (ii) bubbling fluidised bed (BFB) and (iii) circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion of waste. The BFB and CFB take advantage of advanced combustion technology which enabled them to reach electric efficiency up to 35% and 41% in condensing mode, respectively, whereas 28% (based on the lower heating value) was applied for the grate fired unit. A simple energy system model was applied in calculating the GHG emissions in different scenarios where coal or natural gas was substituted in power generation and mix of fuel oil and natural gas in heat generation by waste combustion. Landfilling and waste transportation were not considered in the model. GHG emissions were reduced significantly in all of the considered scenarios where the waste combustion concepts substituted coal based power generation. With the exception of condensing mode grate incinerator the different waste combustion scenarios resulted approximately in 1 Mton of fossil CO(2)-eq. emission reduction per 1 Mton of municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerated. When natural gas based power generation was substituted by electricity from the waste combustion significant GHG emission reductions were not achieved. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delarue, Erik; Lamberts, Hans; D'haeseleer, William

2007-01-01

Due to the growing concern for global warming, the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005-2007), part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points, the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario, electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Corbett

2010-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO₂ emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane; Price, Lynn

2008-01-01

Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities. (author)

Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

2013-03-15

The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

Cradle to grave GHG emissions analysis of shale gas hydraulic fracking in Western Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bista Sangita

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Western Australia has globally significant onshore gas resources, with over 280 trillion cubic feet of economically recoverable gas located in five shale basins. The Western Australian Government and gas industry have promoted the development of these resources as a “clean energy source” that would “help to reduce global carbon emissions” and provide a “transition fuel” to a low carbon economy. This research examines those claims by reviewing existing literature and published data to estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG pollution that would result from the development of Western Australia’s onshore gas basins using hydraulic fracking. Estimates of carbon pollution from each stage in gas development, processing, transport and end-use are considered in order to establish total life-cycle emissions in tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e. The emissions estimates draw from published research on emissions from shale gas development in other jurisdictions as well as industry or government reported emissions from current technology for gas processing and end-use as applicable. The current policy and regulatory environment for carbon pollution and likely resulting GHG mitigation measures has also been considered, as well as the potential for the gas to displace or substitute for other energy sources. In areas where there is uncertainty, conservative emissions estimates have been used. Modelling of GHG emissions has been undertaken for two comparison resource development and utilisation scenarios; Australian domestic and 100% export i.e. no domestic use. Each scenario corresponds to a different proportionate allocation of emissions accounted for domestic emissions in Australia and emissions accounted for in other jurisdictions. Emissions estimates for the two scenarios are 245–502 MTCO2e/year respectively over a resource development timeframe of 20 years. This is roughly the same as Australia’s total GHG emissions in 2014

Comparing the greenhouse gas emissions from three alternative waste combustion concepts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vainikka, Pasi; Tsupari, Eemeli; Sipilä, Kai; Hupa, Mikko

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Significant GHG reductions are possible by efficient WtE technologies. ► CHP and high power-to-heat ratio provide significant GHG savings. ► N 2 O and coal mine type are important in LCA GHG emissions of FBC co-combustion. ► Substituting coal and fuel oil by waste is beneficial in electricity and heat production. ► Substituting natural gas by waste may not be reasonable in CHP generation. - Abstract: Three alternative condensing mode power and combined heat and power (CHP) waste-to-energy concepts were compared in terms of their impacts on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a heat and power generation system. The concepts included (i) grate, (ii) bubbling fluidised bed (BFB) and (iii) circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion of waste. The BFB and CFB take advantage of advanced combustion technology which enabled them to reach electric efficiency up to 35% and 41% in condensing mode, respectively, whereas 28% (based on the lower heating value) was applied for the grate fired unit. A simple energy system model was applied in calculating the GHG emissions in different scenarios where coal or natural gas was substituted in power generation and mix of fuel oil and natural gas in heat generation by waste combustion. Landfilling and waste transportation were not considered in the model. GHG emissions were reduced significantly in all of the considered scenarios where the waste combustion concepts substituted coal based power generation. With the exception of condensing mode grate incinerator the different waste combustion scenarios resulted approximately in 1 Mton of fossil CO 2 -eq. emission reduction per 1 Mton of municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerated. When natural gas based power generation was substituted by electricity from the waste combustion significant GHG emission reductions were not achieved.

Modelled impacts of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from Finnish agriculture up to 2020

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. REGINA

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Emission scenarios based on integrated quantitative modelling are a valuable tool in planning strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation. By estimating the potential of individual mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resources can be targeted to the most promising policy measures. This paper reports two agricultural emission scenarios for Finland up to year 2020, one baseline scenario (Scenario 1 based on the projected agricultural production levels determined by markets and agricultural policy and one with selected mitigation measures included (Scenario 2. Measures selected for the analysis consisted of 1 keeping agricultural area at the current level, 2 decreasing the proportion of organic soils, 3 increasing the proportion of grass cultivation on organic soils and 4 supporting biogas production on farms. Starting from 2005, the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture would decrease 2.3% in Scenario 1 by 2020 whereas the respective decrease would be 11.5% in Scenario 2. According to the results, mitigation measures targeted to cultivation of organic soils have the largest potential to reduce the emissions. Such measures would include reducing the area of cultivated organic soils and increasing the proportion of perennial crops on the remaining area.

Life Cycle Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis of Natural Gas-Based Distributed Generation Projects in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hansi Liu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we used the life-cycle analysis (LCA method to evaluate the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions of natural gas (NG distributed generation (DG projects in China. We took the China Resources Snow Breweries (CRSB NG DG project in Sichuan province of China as a base scenario and compared its life cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions performance against five further scenarios. We found the CRSB DG project (all energy input is NG can reduce GHG emissions by 22%, but increase energy consumption by 12% relative to the scenario, using coal combined with grid electricity as an energy input. The LCA also indicated that the CRSB project can save 24% of energy and reduce GHG emissions by 48% relative to the all-coal scenario. The studied NG-based DG project presents major GHG emissions reduction advantages over the traditional centralized energy system. Moreover, this reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions can be expanded if the extra electricity from the DG project can be supplied to the public grid. The action of combining renewable energy into the NG DG system can also strengthen the dual merit of energy conservation and GHG emissions reduction. The marginal CO2 abatement cost of the studied project is about 51 USD/ton CO2 equivalent, which is relatively low. Policymakers are recommended to support NG DG technology development and application in China and globally to boost NG utilization and control GHG emissions.

Effects of high energy prices on scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Final report; Energiepreise und Klimaschutz. Wirkung hoher Energietraegerpreise auf die CO{sub 2}-Emissionsminderung bis 2030. Abschlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthes, Felix Christian; Graichen, Verena; Harthan, Ralph O.; Repenning, Julia [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany); Horn, Manfred [DIW Berlin (Germany); Krey, Volker; Markewitz, Peter; Martinsen, Dag [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe STE

2008-05-15

Against the background of high increases in the prices of the primary energy carriers crude oil, natural gas and hard coal, which are traded on international markets, three scenarios of the price development of the most important energy carriers are developed. Using energy price assumptions, a scenario analysis is undertaken with regard to the development of CO{sub 2} emissions in Germany as a whole as well as in terms of the different energy sectors. The emission scenarios are analysed with respect to the electricity industry in Germany using both IKARUS, the energy system model geared towards macroeconomic optimisation, and ELIAS, the sector model based on microeconomic considerations. The model analyses are supplemented by an overview of literature with regard to similar model analyses. (orig.)

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

Economic analysis of the reduction of dehydrator emissions in the natural gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chalifoux, C.

1999-01-01

Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act benzene has been designated as toxic, and after gasoline combustion, the natural gas extraction industry is the largest source of benzene emissions to the environment. The study's objective is to present a profile of the natural gas industry and to analyze the costs to the private sector of complying with the various benzene reduction targets. Also outlined is a profile of the natural gas extraction industry. A description is included of the method used to extrapolate the results obtained from the sample of 370 sites to the industry as a whole. Two scenarios studied are described in section four including: (1) scenario one in which the environmental requirements would have to be applied across-the-board to all emitting sites, which would have to comply with maximum benzene reductions, and (2) scenario two in which the environmental requirements would only be applied to high-emission sites, which would have to comply with specific requirements. A compilation is made in the fifth section for each scenario of the cost to the industry and the benzene emission reductions for each scenario for the sample of 370 sites to the industry as a whole. The aim of developing the two scenarios used to analyze various benzene emissions reduction levels at the sample of 370 sites was to determine: capital costs required, additional annual costs as additional annual operating costs plus annualized capital costs, number of sites affected, and total benzene reductions expressed in tonnes per year. 10 tabs

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1997-12-31

The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

Emissions implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain region.

Science.gov (United States)

McLeod, Jeffrey D; Brinkman, Gregory L; Milford, Jana B

2014-11-18

Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Ina; Kaniovski, Serguei; Scheffran, Jürgen

2012-01-01

Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: ► This study develops scenarios for global passenger car stock, CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency until 2050. ► In a global regionalized approach car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach. ► Compared are utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate. ► Preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations. ► The demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income.

Cogeneration, renewables and reducing greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naughten, B.; Dlugosz, J.

1996-01-01

The MENSA model is used to assess the potential role of cogeneration and selected new renewable energy technologies in cost-effectively reducing Greenhouse gas emissions. The model framework for analyzing these issues is introduced, together with an account of relevant aspects of its application. In the discussion of selected new renewable energy technologies, it is shown how microeconomic reform may encourage these technologies and fuels, and thereby reduce sector wide carbon dioxide emissions. Policy scenarios modelled are described and the simulation results are presented. Certain interventions in microeconomic reform may result in economic benefits while also reducing emissions: no regrets' opportunities. Some renewable energy technologies are also shown to be cost-effective in the event that targets and timetables for reducing Greenhouse gas emissions are imposed. However, ad hoc interventions in support of particular renewables options are unlikely to be consistent with a least cost approach to achieving environmental objectives. (author). 5 tabs., 5 figs., 21 refs

Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

Science.gov (United States)

Babel, Sandhya; Vilaysouk, Xaysackda

2016-01-01

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the major environmental problems throughout the world including in Lao PDR. In Vientiane, due to the lack of a collection service, open burning and illegal dumping are commonly practised. This study aims to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the current situation of MSW management (MSWM) in Vientiane and proposes an alternative solution to reduce the GHG emission and environmental impacts. The 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006 model) are used for the estimation of GHG emission from landfill and composting. For the estimation of GHG emission from open burning, the Atmospheric Brown Clouds Emission Inventory Manual (ABC EIM) is used. In Vientiane, a total of 232, 505 tonnes year(-1) of MSW was generated in 2011. Waste generation in Vientiane is 0.69 kg per capita per day, and about 31% of the total MSW generated was directly sent to landfill (71,162 tonnes year(-1)). The total potential GHG emission from the baseline scenario in 2011 was 110,182 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq, which is 0.15 tonne year(-1) CO2-eq per capita. From the three MSWM scenarios proposed, scenario S3, which includes recycling, composting and landfilling, seems to be an effective solution for dealing with MSW in Vientiane with less air pollution, and is environmentally friendly. The total GHG emission in scenario S3 is reduced to 91,920 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq (47% reduction), compared with the S1 scenario where all uncollected waste is diverted to landfill. © The Author(s) 2015.

Development of AIM for analysing policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, M.; Morita, T.; Matsuoka, Y.

1999-01-01

AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them. Two socio-economic scenarios were assumed and CO 2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions. It is found that mitigating CO 2 emissions without scaling back productive activities or standards of living in Japan is possible. However, if one relies on the market mechanism alone, it cannot be done. The analysis has shown that it is essential to introduce new policies and measures such as carbon tax and subsidies. (author)

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

2011-01-01

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2012-01-01

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

Urban form and greenhouse gas emissions in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmaajaervi, Irmeli

2003-01-01

Finland's regional form is becoming more concentrated, while urban sprawl is causing growth centres to become fragmented. The effects caused by these changes on greenhouse gas emissions were studied up to the year 2010, when, in accordance with the Kyoto protocol, Finland's greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to the 1990 level. The urban form affects especially transportation inside regions, the potential to utilise district heating and the need for infrastructure. By preventing urban sprawl and by encouraging teleworking and some lifestyle changes, it would be possible to reduce annual transportation emissions by the year 2010 by 1.1 million tonnes CO 2 eq., i.e. 27%, the emissions from residential and service buildings by 1.1 million tonnes CO 2 eq., i.e. 5%, and the emissions from municipal infrastructure by 0.1 million tonnes CO 2 eq., i.e. 6%. Altogether, it is possible to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by 2.3 million tonnes, which amounts to 15% of Finland's target for emissions reductions in 2010. If the target-oriented scenario is realised, the subsequent decrease of emissions would accelerate. To stop urban sprawl, measures are required in planning, land use and housing policy as well as in transportation and tax policies. Additionally, more needs to be done in regard to co-operation, interaction and information dissemination. This paper introduces a report which estimates, for the first time, the effects caused by changes in the regional and urban forms on the levels of greenhouse gas emissions in Finland

Greenhouse gas emissions from willow-based electricity: a scenario analysis for Portugal and The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rebelo de Mira, R.; Kroeze, C.

2006-01-01

This study focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants using willow as fuel compared to those using fossil fuels. More specifically, we quantify emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils on which willow is grown, and compare these to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginzburg, V.

1998-01-01

In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

Environment and mobility 2050: scenarios for a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez-Ruiz, H.G.

2009-10-01

In France an objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 has been set. Are these ambitions out of our reach? What will the price to pay for this objective be? We have built a long-term back-casting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term) . This model is centered on defined behavior types - in which the speed-GDP elasticity plays a key role - in order to determine demand estimations. This model lets us understand past tendencies - the coupling between growth and personal and freight mobility and adapt behavioral hypothesis - linked to the evolution of public policies - in order to show how a 75% reduction objective can be attained. The main results are an estimation of CO 2 emissions for the transport sector taking into account technical progress and demand. These results are presented as three scenario families named: Pegasus, Chronos and Hestia. Each family corresponds to a growing degree of constraint on mobility. It is possible to divide greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by four. Technical progress is able to lead to more than half of these reductions. The interest of these scenarios is to show that there exist different paths - through organizational change - to getting the other half of the reductions. (author)

Country-Level Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Liquefied Natural Gas Trade for Electricity Generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasumu, Adebola S; Li, Vivian; Coleman, James W; Liendo, Jeanne; Jordaan, Sarah M

2018-02-20

In the determination of the net impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on greenhouse gas emissions, life cycle assessments (LCA) of electricity generation have yet to combine the effects of transport distances between exporting and importing countries, country-level infrastructure in importing countries, and the fuel sources displaced in importing countries. To address this, we conduct a LCA of electricity generated from LNG export from British Columbia, Canada with a three-step approach: (1) a review of viable electricity generation markets for LNG, (2) the development of results for greenhouse gas emissions that account for transport to importing nations as well as the infrastructure required for power generation and delivery, and (3) emissions displacement scenarios to test assumptions about what electricity is being displaced in the importing nation. Results show that while the ultimate magnitude of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas production systems is still unknown, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions depend on country-level infrastructure (specifically, the efficiency of the generation fleet, transmission and distribution losses and LNG ocean transport distances) as well as the assumptions on what is displaced in the domestic electricity generation mix. Exogenous events such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster have unanticipated effects on the emissions displacement results. We highlight national regulations, environmental policies, and multilateral agreements that could play a role in mitigating emissions.

Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2000-01-01

The study, 'Assesment of greenhouse gas emission from natural gas' by independent consultants Energetics Pty Ltd, shows that natural gas has significantly fewer greenhouses gas emissions than either black or brown cola for the defined life cycle stages. The life cycle emissions from natural gas use by an Australian Major User are approximately 50% less than the emissions from Victorian brown coal and approximately 38% less than the emissions from Australian average black coal. Australian Best Practice gas fired electricity generation is estimated to emit between 514 and 658 kg CO 2 e/MWh. By comparison, Australian Best Practice coal-fired electricity generation is estimated to emit between 907 and 1,246 kg CO 2 e/MWh for black and brown coal respectively. Greenhouse gas emissions from Australian Best Practice gas-fired electricity generation using combined cycle gas turbines (including full fuel cycle emissions) vary from 41% to 46% of the emissions from brown coal-fired electricity generation and 57% to 64% of emissions from black coal-fired electricity generation. Greenhouse gas emissions from direct gas supply water heating range from 1,470 to 2,042 kilograms per annum. This compares with emissions of 1,922 to 2,499 kg for electric heating from gas-fired electricity generation and 3,975 to 5,393 kg for coal-fired electricity generation. The implications for greenhouse policy nationally are also discussed, emphasising the need to review national energy policy, currently tied to 'fuel neutrality' doctrine

Identifying key drivers of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass feedstocks for energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, David R.; Curtright, Aimee E.; Willis, Henry H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Production emissions dominate transportation and processing emissions. • Choice of feedstock, geographic location and prior land use drive emissions profile. • Within scenarios, emissions variability is driven by uncertainty in yields. • Favorable scenarios maximize carbon storage from direct land-use change. • Similarly, biomass production should attempt to minimize indirect land-use change. -- Abstract: Many policies in the United States, at both the federal and state levels, encourage the adoption of renewable energy from biomass. Though largely motivated by a desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these policies do not explicitly identify scenarios in which the use of biomass will produce the greatest benefits. We have modeled “farm-to-hopper” emissions associated with seven biomass feedstocks, under a wide variety of scenarios and production choices, to characterize the uncertainty in emissions. We demonstrate that only a handful of factors have a significant impact on life cycle emissions: choice of feedstock, geographic location, prior land use, and time dynamics. Within a given production scenario, the remaining variability in emissions is driven by uncertainty in feedstock yields and the release rate of N 2 O into the atmosphere from nitrogen fertilizers. With few exceptions, transport and processing choices have relatively little impact on total emissions. These results illustrate the key decisions that will determine the success of biomass programs in reducing the emissions profile of energy production, and our publicly available model provides a useful tool for identifying the most beneficial production scenarios. While model data and results are restricted to biomass production in the contiguous United States, we provide qualitative guidance for identifying favorable production scenarios that should be applicable in other regions

Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

2017-02-01

The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

2013-10-10

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants

Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

2013-06-01

A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

Simulating the Impact of Carbon Taxes on Greenhouse Gas Emission and Nutrition in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Revoredo-Giha

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions associated with food consumption have become particularly pertinent issues given recent warnings that the planet recently has experienced its hottest year. One way proposed to reduce those emissions is through a carbon consumption taxes. This study uses consumption, nutrient and GHG emission data to estimate the impact of two ad-valorem taxes: one applied by food category and another by the carbon emission of the products. The results suggest that the carbon consumption tax scenarios would reduce GHG emissions by a greater quantity relative to the ad-valorem tax scenario; however, the intake of important nutrients will also decrease in these scenarios. Therefore, creating an environmentally sustainable and nutritious diet through taxation is challenging and requires compromise between the nutrition and environmental sustainability.

Impact of changes in diet on the availability of land, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions of agriculture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fazeni, Karin; Steinmueller, Horst [Johannes Kepler Univ. (JKU Linz), Linz (Austria). Energy Inst.

2011-12-15

Recent scientific investigations have revealed a correlation between nutrition habits and the environmental impacts of agriculture. So, it is obviously worthwhile to study what effects a change in diet has on land use patterns, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. This study calculates the amount of energy and emission savings as well as changes in land use that would result from different scenarios underlying a change in diet. Based on the healthy eating recommendations of the German Nutrition Society, meat consumption in Austria should decrease by about 60%, and consumption of fruits and vegetables has to increase strongly. This investigation showed that compliance with healthy eating guidelines leads to lower energy demand and a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to a decrease in livestock numbers. Furthermore, arable land and grassland no longer needed for animal feed production becomes redundant and can possibly be used for the production of raw materials for renewable energy. The scenario examination shows that in the self-sufficiency scenario and in the import/export scenario, up to 443,100 ha and about 208,800 ha, respectively, of arable land and grassland are released for non-food uses. The cumulative energy demand of agriculture is lower by up to 38%, and the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture decrease by up to 37% in these scenarios as against the reference situation. The land use patterns for the scenario demonstrate that animal feed production still takes up the largest share of agricultural land even though the extent of animal husbandry decreased considerably in the scenarios. (orig.)

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. liquefied natural gas exports: implications for end uses.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahams, Leslie S; Samaras, Constantine; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2015-03-03

This study analyzes how incremental U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports affect global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that exported U.S. LNG has mean precombustion emissions of 37 g CO2-equiv/MJ when regasified in Europe and Asia. Shipping emissions of LNG exported from U.S. ports to Asian and European markets account for only 3.5-5.5% of precombustion life cycle emissions, hence shipping distance is not a major driver of GHGs. A scenario-based analysis addressing how potential end uses (electricity and industrial heating) and displacement of existing fuels (coal and Russian natural gas) affect GHG emissions shows the mean emissions for electricity generation using U.S. exported LNG were 655 g CO2-equiv/kWh (with a 90% confidence interval of 562-770), an 11% increase over U.S. natural gas electricity generation. Mean emissions from industrial heating were 104 g CO2-equiv/MJ (90% CI: 87-123). By displacing coal, LNG saves 550 g CO2-equiv per kWh of electricity and 20 g per MJ of heat. LNG saves GHGs under upstream fugitive emissions rates up to 9% and 5% for electricity and heating, respectively. GHG reductions were found if Russian pipeline natural gas was displaced for electricity and heating use regardless of GWP, as long as U.S. fugitive emission rates remain below the estimated 5-7% rate of Russian gas. However, from a country specific carbon accounting perspective, there is an imbalance in accrued social costs and benefits. Assuming a mean social cost of carbon of $49/metric ton, mean global savings from U.S. LNG displacement of coal for electricity generation are $1.50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gaseous natural gas exported as LNG ($.028/kWh). Conversely, the U.S. carbon cost of exporting the LNG is $1.80/Mcf ($.013/kWh), or $0.50-$5.50/Mcf across the range of potential discount rates. This spatial shift in embodied carbon emissions is important to consider in national interest estimates for LNG exports.

Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

2018-01-01

Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

Greenhouse gas emissions during MSW landfilling in China: influence of waste characteristics and LFG treatment measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Na; Zhang, Hua; Shao, Li-Ming; Lü, Fan; He, Pin-Jing

2013-11-15

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can be highly cost-effective in terms of GHG mitigation. This study investigated GHG emissions during MSW landfilling in China under four existing scenarios and in terms of seven different categories: waste collection and transportation, landfill management, leachate treatment, fugitive CH4 (FM) emissions, substitution of electricity production, carbon sequestration and N2O and CO emissions. GHG emissions from simple sanitary landfilling technology where no landfill gas (LFG) extraction took place (Scenario 1) were higher (641-998 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww) than those from open dump (Scenario 0, 480-734 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww). This was due to the strictly anaerobic conditions in Scenario 1. LFG collection and treatment reduced GHG emissions to 448-684 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 2 (with LFG flare) and 214-277 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 3 (using LFG for electricity production). Amongst the seven categories, FM was the predominant contributor to GHG emissions. Global sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters associated with waste characteristics (i.e. CH4 potential and carbon sequestered faction) and LFG management (i.e. LFG collection efficiency and CH4 oxidation efficiency) were of great importance. A further learning on the MSW in China indicated that water content and dry matter content of food waste were the basic factors affecting GHG emissions. Source separation of food waste, as well as increasing the incineration ratio of mixed collected MSW, could effectively mitigate the overall GHG emissions from landfilling in a specific city. To increase the LFG collection and CH4 oxidation efficiencies could considerably reduce GHG emissions on the landfill site level. While, the improvement in the LFG utilization measures had an insignificant impact as long as the LFG is recovered for energy generation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of measures for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in energy supply sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khristov, Kh.; Todorova, S.; Vasilev, Kh.; Simeonova, K.

1996-01-01

This study performed by the Energoproekt Company, Sofia (BG) is aimed at estimating the economic costs of CO 2 emissions reduction in the electricity supply system for the period 2000-2020. The specific capital investment and cost price of the following technical options have been compared: reduction of electricity and heat loss; gas and steam cycle power plants; micro hydro potential; renewable sources; extension of nuclear power installations; gas steam turbine equipment; combined cycle power plants. The evaluation is made according to requirements of a baseline scenario - to develop an import-independent energy supply policy and an economic growth without sharp structural changes. A 25-year-operation of a hypothetical energy supply system is modelled by the ENPEP code (ANL, US). The three least-cost options identified are: power loss reduction; gas and steam cycle PPs and hydroelectric objects. An optimal combination of measures, so called ' aggregated scenario' is proposed. It would allow for CO 2 reduction by 23,7 mill tons and prime cost reduction by $19,83 per ton reduced emissions. 3 refs., 2 tabs

The value of advanced technology in meeting 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Clarke, Leon; Pugh, Graham; Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James; Kim, Son

2009-01-01

This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next 40 years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO 2 -e emissions of 50% and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is the expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.

Tradeoffs between costs and greenhouse gas emissions in the design of urban transit systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griswold, Julia B; Madanat, Samer; Horvath, Arpad

2013-01-01

Recent investments in the transit sector to address greenhouse gas emissions have concentrated on purchasing efficient replacement vehicles and inducing mode shift from the private automobile. There has been little focus on the potential of network and operational improvements, such as changes in headways, route spacing, and stop spacing, to reduce transit emissions. Most models of transit system design consider user and agency cost while ignoring emissions and the potential environmental benefit of operational improvements. We use a model to evaluate the user and agency costs as well as greenhouse gas benefit of design and operational improvements to transit systems. We examine how the operational characteristics of urban transit systems affect both costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The research identifies the Pareto frontier for designing an idealized transit network. Modes considered include bus, bus rapid transit (BRT), light rail transit (LRT), and metro (heavy) rail, with cost and emissions parameters appropriate for the United States. Passenger demand follows a many-to-many travel pattern with uniformly distributed origins and destinations. The approaches described could be used to optimize the network design of existing bus service or help to select a mode and design attributes for a new transit system. The results show that BRT provides the lowest cost but not the lowest emissions for our large city scenarios. Bus and LRT systems have low costs and the lowest emissions for our small city scenarios. Relatively large reductions in emissions from the cost-optimal system can be achieved with only minor increases in user travel time. (letter)

Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2006-07-15

The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

Electricity price, energy production and emissions impact : evaluating proposed GHG emission reduction frameworks for the Alberta electricity industry : updated reference case and sensitivity results prepared for CASA EPT Greenhouse Gas Allocation Subgroup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This document presents the results of a study which quantified the potential impact of various greenhouse gas (GHG) policy scenarios on Alberta generators' energy production, airborne emissions and electricity wholesale market price. The study examined proactive policy frameworks compared to business as usual scenarios. A reference case scenario was included to represent the status quo environment where electricity demand continues on its current path. Five additional sensitivity cases were examined, of which 3 evaluated the impact of many key assumptions regarding progressive GHG reduction levels and costs related to meeting GHG requirements. The other two evaluated an all-coal future electricity supply both with and without GHG emission reduction costs. Environmental costs were also evaluated in terms of emissions of nitrous oxides, sulphurous oxides, mercury and particulate matter. The impact of generation retirement and renewable energy source development was also analyzed. Demand and supply forecasts for oil, natural gas, electric energy and energy sales were presented along with generation supply forecasts for the reference case scenario, coal generation and natural gas fired retirements. refs., tabs., figs

Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

2000-01-01

Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew; Haw, Mary; Merven, Bruno

2011-01-01

This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

Scenarios for use of biogas for heavy-duty vehicles in Denmark and related GHG emissions impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Steen Solvang; Winther, Morten; Jørgensen, Uffe

2017-01-01

of biogas is of concern. This study has analysed the potential biomass and biogas production from all Danish organic waste sources under different scenario assumptions for future scenario years. The analysis includes energy demand of the road transportation sector by means of transport and fuel types......, and potential use of the limited biogas resource taking into account alternative fuel options available for transportation (electricity, hydrogen, biofuels). Further, the total differences in fuel consumption and GHG emissions due to the replacement of diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles by gas-powered heavy...

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas, natural gas, coal, and petroleum.

Science.gov (United States)

Burnham, Andrew; Han, Jeongwoo; Clark, Corrie E; Wang, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B; Palou-Rivera, Ignasi

2012-01-17

The technologies and practices that have enabled the recent boom in shale gas production have also brought attention to the environmental impacts of its use. It has been debated whether the fugitive methane emissions during natural gas production and transmission outweigh the lower carbon dioxide emissions during combustion when compared to coal and petroleum. Using the current state of knowledge of methane emissions from shale gas, conventional natural gas, coal, and petroleum, we estimated up-to-date life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, we developed distribution functions for key parameters in each pathway to examine uncertainty and identify data gaps such as methane emissions from shale gas well completions and conventional natural gas liquid unloadings that need to be further addressed. Our base case results show that shale gas life-cycle emissions are 6% lower than conventional natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline, and 33% lower than coal. However, the range in values for shale and conventional gas overlap, so there is a statistical uncertainty whether shale gas emissions are indeed lower than conventional gas. Moreover, this life-cycle analysis, among other work in this area, provides insight on critical stages that the natural gas industry and government agencies can work together on to reduce the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas.

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

2005-07-15

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

2005-07-01

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

An Attempt for an Emergent Scenario with Modified Chaplygin Gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukerji, Sudeshna; Chakraborty, Subenoy; Dutta, Sourav

2016-01-01

The present work is an attempt for emergent universe scenario with modified Chaplygin gas. The universe is chosen as spatially flat FRW space-time with modified Chaplygin gas as the only cosmic substratum. It is found that emergent scenario is possible for some specific (unrealistic) choice of the parameters in the equation of state for modified Chaplygin gas.

Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessment of Conventional and Solar Assisted Air Conditioning Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaofeng Li

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption in the buildings is responsible for 26% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions where cooling typically accounts for over 50% of the total building energy use. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for reducing the cooling systems’ environmental footprint with applications of alternative renewable energy source. Three types of cooling systems, water cooled, air cooled and a hybrid solar-based air-conditioning system, with a total of six scenarios were designed in this work. The scenarios accounted for the types of power supply to the air-conditioning systems with electricity from the grid and with a solar power from highly integrated building photovoltaics (BIPV. Within and between these scenarios, systems’ energy performances were compared based on energy modelling while the harvesting potential of the renewable energy source was further predicted based on building’s detailed geometrical model. The results showed that renewable energy obtained via BIPV scenario could cover building’s annual electricity consumption for cooling and reduce 140 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year. The hybrid solar air-conditioning system has higher energy efficiency than the air cooled chiller system but lower than the water cooled system.

Transformative Reduction of Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Opportunities for Change in Technologies and Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brown, Austin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schroeder, Alex [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chipman, Peter [U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. (United States); Johnson, Shawn [U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. (United States)

2015-04-30

The transportation sector is changing, influenced by concurrent, ongoing, dynamic trends that could dramatically affect the future energy landscape, including effects on the potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Battery cost reductions and improved performance coupled with a growing number of electric vehicle model offerings are enabling greater battery electric vehicle market penetration, and advances in fuel cell technology and decreases in hydrogen production costs are leading to initial fuel cell vehicle offerings. Radically more efficient vehicles based on both conventional and new drivetrain technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle-mile. Net impacts also depend on the energy sources used for propulsion, and these are changing with increased use of renewable energy and unconventional fossil fuel resources. Connected and automated vehicles are emerging for personal and freight transportation systems and could increase use of low- or non-emitting technologies and systems; however, the net effects of automation on greenhouse gas emissions are uncertain. The longstanding trend of an annual increase in transportation demand has reversed for personal vehicle miles traveled in recent years, demonstrating the possibility of lower-travel future scenarios. Finally, advanced biofuel pathways have continued to develop, highlighting low-carbon and in some cases carbon-negative fuel pathways. We discuss the potential for transformative reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions through these emerging transportation-sector technologies and trends and present a Clean Transportation Sector Initiative scenario for such reductions, which are summarized in Table ES-1.

Greenhouse gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land use change and fertilization scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castanheira, Érica Geraldes; Acevedo, Helmer; Freire, Fausto

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A comprehensive evaluation of alternative LUC and fertilization schemes. • The GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. • Colombian palm area expansion resulted in negative or low palm oil GHG intensity. • GHG emissions from plantation vary significantly with N 2 O emission parameters. - Abstract: The main goal of this article is to assess the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of palm oil produced in a specific plantation and mill in Colombia. A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of alternative land use change (LUC) scenarios (forest, shrubland, savanna and cropland conversion) and fertilization schemes (four synthetic and one organic nitrogen-fertilizer) was performed. A sensitivity analysis to field nitrous oxide emission calculation, biogas management options at mill, time horizon considered for global warming and multifunctionality approach were also performed. The results showed that the GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. Significant differences were observed between the LUC scenarios (−3.0 to 5.3 kg CO 2 eq kg −1 palm oil). The highest result is obtained if tropical rainforest is converted and the lowest if palm is planted on previous cropland, savanna and shrubland, in which almost all LUC from Colombian oil palm area expansion occurred between 1990 and 2009. Concerning plantation and oil extraction, it was shown that field nitrous oxide emissions and biogas management options have a high influence on GHG emissions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischlein, Miriam; Smith, Timothy M.; Wilson, Elizabeth J.

2009-01-01

An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO 2 annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO 2 emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.

A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

2011-04-15

The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector: Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Liu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference, Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios, and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1 The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2, which implies an increment of 0.5–1.3 billion or 14%–35% from the 2015 levels. (2 Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage applications (CCUS. The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price. When the carbon price attains to CN¥150 t−1CO2, the CO2 emission can decrease by 36% than that without carbon price. (3 CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector. Generally speaking, the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation, but once the carbon price reaches up to CN¥106 t−1CO2, the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase. When carbon price increases to CN¥150 t−1CO2 in 2050, the application of CCUS will account for 44% of total emission reduction. (4 In the scenario with carbon price of CN¥150 t−1CO2, power sector would be decarbonized significantly, and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2 (kW h−1, but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission. In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement, more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector. Based on the above scenario analysis, the study proposes four recommendations

Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-06-16

The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

Assessing the greenhouse gas emissions from poultry fat biodiesel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Andreas; Bikker, Paul; Herrmann, Ivan Tengbjerg

2012-01-01

This article attempts to answer the question: What will most likely happen in terms of emitted greenhouse gases if the use of poultry fat for making biodiesel used in transportation is increased? Through a well-to-wheel assessment, several different possible scenarios are assessed, showing...... that under average conditions, the use of poultry fat biodiesel instead of diesel leads to a slight reduction (6%) in greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that poultry fat is already used for different purposes and using poultry fat for biodiesel will therefore remove the poultry fat from its...... original use. This implies that even though the use of biodiesel is assumed to displace petrochemical diesel, the ‘original user’ of the poultry fat will have to find a substitute, whose production leads to a greenhouse gas emissions comparable to what is saved through driving on poultry fat biodiesel...

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

Worldwide Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Petroleum Jet Fuel

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-09

The main objective of this project was to calculate greenhouse gas emissions estimates for petroleum jet fuels for the recent past and for future scenarios in the coming decades. Results were reported globally and broken out by world regions, and the...

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Flue gas emissions from gas-fired cogeneration units <25 MWe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, M.; Wit, J. de

1997-01-01

A total of 900 MW e gas driven combined heat and power (CHP) has now been established in Denmark based on gas engines and gas turbine units less than 25 MW e each. Of the 900 MW e approx. 750 MW e are based on gas engines. Biogas is used as fuel for some 32 MW e of these. Emission limits for NO x and CO are 650 mg/nm 3 (ref. 5% O 2 and electrical efficiency 30% LCV). There is at present no limit for unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) for gas engines or gas turbines. The average emission of unburned hydrocarbons for the Danish gas engine driven CHP units is equal to approx. 3,5% of the fuel used. It is the target of this report to provide the basis for evaluating the planned UHC limit and possible adjustments of the present limit for NO x emission. The average NO x emission from gas turbines slightly exceeds the NO x emission from gas engines. This is due to a number of older gas turbines. Modern gas turbines can achieve significantly lower NO x emission compared to engines. The NO x emission from biogas driven engines is significantly higher than that of natural gas driven units. This is mainly due to NO x -unfavourable engine settings and the use of older units, as there are no legislation concerning NO x emission for the majority of these biogas driven units. The emission of CO and UHC is lower from gas turbines than from gas engines. The NO x emission can be reduced by SCR Catalyst systems. In Denmark 3 gas engine installations use this commercially available technology. Oxidation catalyst for UHC reduction at modern gas engine installations has proven relatively unsuccesful in Denmark until now. Only limited reductions are achieved and many catalysts are toxificated in less than 100 hours of operation. However, long-term field testing of promising UHC reducing catalysts is now being made. UHC reduction by incineration is at the prototype stage. No such plant has yet been set up in Denmark. (Abstract Truncated)

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Greenhouse gas emissions of imported and locally produced fruit and vegetable commodities: A quantitative assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michalský, Marián; Hooda, Peter S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Green house gas (GHG) emission of selected fruit and vegetables (SFVs) estimated. • Production and transport – most energy-intensive life cycle stages considered. • Sourcing SFVs from non-European countries causes much GHG emissions. • Increased UK production of SFVs offers considerable emission savings. • Sourcing SFVs from Europe can help make considerable GHG emission savings. - Abstract: Today considerable efforts are being made in identifying means of further energy efficiencies within the UK food system. Current air importation of fruit and vegetables (FVs) generates large amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions part of which could be avoided. Local food production has been recognized as an environmentally feasible alternative production option and could help reduce GHG emissions, as required under the legally binding emissions targets stipulated by the UK Climate Change Act 2008. Climate change impacts of FVs importation were determined for a selection of five indigenous FV commodities, namely: apples, cherries, strawberries, garlic and peas. Carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) emissions associated with the production and transport stages were calculated using the sample of selected fruit and vegetables (SFVs). The latter stage includes three diverse geographic locations/regions for emissions comparison, namely the UK, Europe and non-European (NE) countries. On average (across the five SFVs), NE commodities, all in fresh/chilled state, were found to contain embedded (arising from production, air freighting and distribution within the UK) GHG emissions of 10.16 kg CO 2 e/kg. This is 9.66 kg more CO 2 e emissions compared to a kilogram of these commodities produced and supplied locally. A scenario-based approach determined the level of emissions savings that could be achieved by local FVs production in the UK. The least dramatic change of SCENARIO-1 (25% reduction in NE SFVs imports by increasing their local production by the same

Shale gas production: potential versus actual greenhouse gas emissions

OpenAIRE

O'Sullivan, Francis Martin; Paltsev, Sergey

2012-01-01

Estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shale gas production and use are controversial. Here we assess the level of GHG emissions from shale gas well hydraulic fracturing operations in the United States during 2010. Data from each of the approximately 4000 horizontal shale gas wells brought online that year are used to show that about 900 Gg CH[subscript 4] of potential fugitive emissions were generated by these operations, or 228 Mg CH[subscript 4] per well—a figure inappropriately ...

Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

OpenAIRE

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

2016-01-01

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olivier JGJ; LAE

1995-01-01

An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

Greenhouse gas emissions of realistic dietary choices in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Werner, Louise Bruun; Flysjö, Anna; Tholstrup, Tine

2014-01-01

to nutritional recommendation and climate impact for solid food items; high index values were those with the highest nutrient density scores in relation to the GHGE. RESULTS: The high-dairy scenario resulted in 27% higher protein, 13% higher vitamin D; 55% higher calcium; 48% higher riboflavin; and 18% higher...... selenium than the non-dairy scenario. There was a significant correlation between changes in calcium and changes in vitamin D, selenium, and riboflavin content (P=0.0001) throughout all of the diets. The estimated GHGE for the dietary scenario with average-dairy consumption was 4,631 g CO2e......BACKGROUND: Dairy products are important in a healthy diet due to their high nutritional value; they are, however, associated with relatively large greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) per kg product. When discussing the need to reduce the GHGE caused by the food system, it is crucial to consider...

Emission Scenario Document for Biocides Emission scenarios for all 23 product types of the Biocidal Products Directive (EU Directive 98/8/EC)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poel P van der; Bakker J; CSR

2002-01-01

This report presents an overview of all available emission scenarios for all 23 product types of biocides according to EU Directive 98/8/EC. The scenarios presented are already present in USES 3.0 or have been reported by RIVM or within the scope of the project "Gathering, review and development of

The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang-Helmreich Hanna

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.

Greenhouse gas emission controls : differentiated vs. flat rate targets : impacts and concerts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heydanek, D.

1997-01-01

Continuing the discussion on differentiation in greenhouse gas emission targets and timetables for all nations, the different implications of differentiation vs. flat rate controls were examined. A scenario of how different targets for different countries based on national circumstances might be implemented, was presented. Implications of differentiation for the Dow Chemical Company were also reviewed. For more than 20 years, Dow has practiced leading edge energy efficiency in environmental management systems and has committed to a series of environmental, health and safety goals. The company believes that at the international level, fully differentiated targets and timetables need to be negotiated, party by party, by the 150 nations who agreed to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by year 2000. It was suggested that a strong disincentive exists to delivering energy efficiency beyond compliance. It was predicted that despite efficiency, the energy intensive assets in place today in Annex I countries will be disadvantaged and prematurely retired as the costs of greenhouse gas emission controls grow and exert pressure to move productive capacity offshore

Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D. [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

2010-09-15

Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO{sub 2}e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). (author)

Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D.

2010-01-01

Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO 2 e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth).

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

2013-01-01

The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

Comparison of integration options for gasification-based biofuel production systems – Economic and greenhouse gas emission implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, Kristina M.; Berntsson, Thore S.; Andersson, Eva; Rydberg, Tomas

2016-01-01

The impact of different integration options for gasification-based biofuel production systems producing synthetic natural gas, methanol and FT (Fischer-Tropsch) fuels on the NAP (net annual profit), FPC (fuel production cost) and the GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction potential are analysed. The considered integration options are heat deliveries to DH (district heating) systems or to nearby industries and integration with infrastructure for CO_2 storage. The comparison is made to stand-alone configurations in which the excess heat is used for power production. The analysis considers future energy market scenarios and case studies in southwestern Sweden. The results show that integration with DH systems has small impacts on the NAP and the FPC and diverging (positive or negative) impacts on the GHG emissions. Integration with industries has positive effects on the economic and GHG performances in all scenarios. The FPCs are reduced by 7–8% in the methanol case and by 12–13% in the FT production case. The GHG emission reductions are strongly dependent on the reference power production. The storage of separated CO_2 shows an increase in the GHG emission reduction potential of 70–100% for all systems, whereas the impacts on the economic performances are strongly dependent on the CO_2_e-charge. - Highlights: • Three gasification-based biofuel production systems at case study sites are analysed. • Greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and economic performance are evaluated. • Impact of integration with adjacent industry or district heating systems is analysed. • The assessment comprises future energy market scenarios including CCS infrastructure. • Utilisation options for excess heat significantly impact the evaluated parameters.

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

How human-made greenhouse gas emissions can (really) be reduced

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

To be efficient, any action undertaken in view of mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions requires that the reduction of CO 2 emissions not be confused with energy savings. Indeed, there is strict correlation between the two only if the energy savings achieved lead to fossil fuel savings. If a drastic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions were not mandatory, the conversion of our energy production and use would be less pressing, the known fossil fuel reserves being sufficient to supply humanity for at least one and a half centuries. Keeping these consideration in mind, under the control of its Scientific Council and with the help of partner organizations, STC has elaborated a set of proposals to reduce the economic activity's carbon content without affecting in any fundamental way the life style of the populations concerned while leaving room for economic growth in developing countries. In this sense, the ''Negatep'' scenario put forward by STC is fundamentally different from the ''Negawatt'' type scenarios. The options we recommend are ranked according to their economic efficiency. The index that is conventionally used to compare conceivable solutions is known as the ''cost of carbon avoided'' for a given action. It consists in estimating the additional cost of the action considered in relation to the amount of carbon whose release to the atmosphere is avoided thanks to the action. The index is measured in Euros per metric ton of carbon avoided. Summary of the actions and recommendations put forward by ''Save the Climate'' for energy production and energy efficiency are argued in further detail in this document. (A.L.B.)

Emissions in 2001 conform the reference scenario (GE WLO with high oil price) and including Clean and Efficient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroon, P.; Menkveld, M.

2008-08-01

This memo shows the calculation of an estimate for the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 in the reference scenario (GE WLO is the Dutch abbreviation for Global Economy and Welfare and Environment), including the impact of the Clean and Efficient programme from the assessment of ECN (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands) and MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) [nl

Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

OpenAIRE

Mohajan, Haradhan

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ansuategi, Alberto [Environment Department, University of York, York (United Kingdom); Escapa, Marta [Foundations of Economic Analysis Department, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain)

2002-01-01

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. Unfortunately, this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions. One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global, not local, disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions-income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate-economy interactions. We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency, (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

2013-01-01

Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

2010-01-01

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of various residential heating systems in the Canadian provinces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pare, D.

2010-04-01

The Kyoto Protocol compels signatory countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5 percent by 2010 as compared to 1990 levels. In Canada, however, questions remain regarding the effects of greenhouse gases as they relate to the adoption of geoexchange systems in certain provinces because of the sources of electricity. This report presented a comprehensive analysis of the specific and strategic role of geoexchange technology, and ground source heat pumps in particular. The purpose was to compare, on a common basis, the greenhouse gas emissions of different residential heating systems utilized in the Canadian provinces. Comparisons were conducted from an environmental standpoint, and excluded the exergy and economic aspect, or other related issues. The report discussed the methodology and hypotheses of the study and presented the results for Canada, and for each province. It was concluded that according to the hypotheses employed for the purposes of this study, geoexchange systems offer a solution for greenhouse gas reduction and climatic change in all of the analyzed scenarios, with few exceptions and for a specific scenario. 32 refs., 37 tabs., 12 figs., 4 appendices.

Inventory and Policy Reduction Potential of Greenhouse Gas and Pollutant Emissions of Road Transportation Industry in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, emissions from the road transportation industry in China have been increasing rapidly. To evaluate the reduction potential of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions of the industry in China, its emission inventory was calculated and scenario analysis was created for the period between 2012 and 2030 in this paper. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP model, the development of China’s road transportation industry in two scenarios (the business-as-usual (BAU scenario and the comprehensive-mitigation (CM scenario was simulated. In the Comprehensive Mitigation scenario, there are nine various measures which include Fuel Economy Standards, Auto Emission Standards, Energy-saving Technology, Tax Policy, Eco-driving, Logistics Informatization, Vehicle Liquidation, Electric Vehicles, and Alternative Fuels. The cumulative energy and emission reductions of these specific measures were evaluated. Our results demonstrate that China’s road transportation produced 881 million metric tons of CO2 and emitted 1420 thousand tons of CO, 2150 thousand tons of NOx, 148 thousand tons of PM10, and 745 thousand tons of HC in 2012. The reduction potential is quite large, and road freight transportation is the key mitigation subsector, accounting for 85%–92% of the total emission. For energy conservation and carbon emission mitigation, logistics informatization is the most effective method, potentially reducing 1.80 billion tons of coal equivalent and 3.83 billion tons of CO2 from 2012 to 2030. In terms of air pollutant emission mitigation, the auto emission standards measure performs best with respect to NOx, PM10, and HC emission mitigation, and logistic informatization measure is the best in CO emission reduction. In order to maximize the mitigation potential of China’s road transportation industry, the government needs to implement various measures in a timely and strict fashion.

Greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Beijing: The rising trend and the mitigation effects by management improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Wen

2016-04-01

Disposal of solid waste poses great challenges to city managements. Changes in solid waste composition and disposal methods, along with urbanisation, can certainly affect greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste. In this study, we analysed the changes in the generation, composition and management of municipal solid waste in Beijing. The changes of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management were thereafter calculated. The impacts of municipal solid waste management improvements on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation effects of treatment techniques of greenhouse gas were also analysed. Municipal solid waste generation in Beijing has increased, and food waste has constituted the most substantial component of municipal solid waste over the past decade. Since the first half of 1950s, greenhouse gas emission has increased from 6 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)to approximately 200 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in the early 1990s and 2145 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in 2013. Landfill gas flaring, landfill gas utilisation and energy recovery in incineration are three techniques of the after-emission treatments in municipal solid waste management. The scenario analysis showed that three techniques might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7%, 4.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In the future, if waste disposal can achieve a ratio of 4:3:3 by landfill, composting and incineration with the proposed after-emission treatments, as stipulated by the Beijing Municipal Waste Management Act, greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste will decrease by 41%. © The Author(s) 2016.

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

2007-01-01

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

2010-11-16

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory contains information on direct emissions of greenhouse gases as well as indirect or potential emissions of greenhouse...

Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

2013-11-15

Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

Towards an Integrated Assessment Model for Tropospheric Ozone-Emission Inventories, Scenarios and Emission-control Options

OpenAIRE

Olsthoorn, X.

1994-01-01

IIASA intends to extend its RAINS model for addressing the issue of transboundary ozone air pollution. This requires the development of a VOC-emissions module, VOCs being precursors in ozone formation. The module should contain a Europe-wide emission inventory, a submodule for developing emission scenarios and a database of measures for VOC-emission control, including data about control effectiveness and control costs. It is recommended to use the forthcoming CORINAIR90 inventory for construc...

Biogas in organic agriculture-effects on productivity, energy self-sufficiency and greenhouse gas emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pugesgaard, Siri; Olesen, Jørgen E; Jørgensen, Uffe

2014-01-01

was obtained for all biogas scenarios, showing that biomass production for biogas on 10% of the farm area results in an energy surplus, provided that the heat from the electricity production is utilized. The energy surplus implies a displacement of fossil fuels and thereby reduced CO2 emission from the farm...... of anaerobic digestion and biogas production were analyzed on a 1000 ha model farm with combined dairy and cash crop production, representing organic agriculture in Denmark. The effects on crop rotation, nitrogen flows and losses, yield, energy balance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were evaluated for four...... scenarios of biogas production on the farm. Animal manure was digested for biogas production in all scenarios and was supplemented with: (1) 100 ha grass–clover for biogas, (2) 100 ha maize for biogas, (3) 200 ha grass–clover for biogas and reduced number of livestock, and (4) 200 ha grass–clover for biogas...

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

2012-03-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

2011-10-15

This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

The life cycle greenhouse gas implications of a UK gas supply transformation on a future low carbon electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammond, Geoffrey P.; O'Grady, Áine

2017-01-01

Natural gas used for power generation will be increasingly sourced from more geographically diverse sites, and unconventional sources such as shale and biomethane, as natural gas reserves diminish. A consequential life cycle approach was employed to examine the implications of an evolving gas supply on the greenhouse gas (GHG) performance of a future United Kingdom (UK) electricity system. Three gas supply mixes were developed based on supply trends, from present day to the year 2050. The contribution of upstream gas emissions - such as extraction, processing/refining, - is not fully reported or covered by UK government legislation. However, upstream gas emissions were seen to be very influential on the future electricity systems analysed; with upstream gas emissions per MJ rising between 2.7 and 3.4 times those of the current supply. Increased biomethane in the gas supply led to a substantial reduction in direct fossil emissions, which was found to be critical in offsetting rising upstream emissions. Accordingly, the modelled high shale gas scenario, with the lowest biomethane adoption; resulted in the highest GHG emissions on a life cycle basis. The long-term dynamics of upstream processes are explored in this work to help guide future decarbonisation policies. - Highlights: • United Kingdom is set to undergo a large gas supply transformation. • Three potential gas mix scenarios were developed based on supply trends. • A consequential life cycle approach was taken to examine the evolving gas supply. • Upstream emissions were seen to rise substantially for all gas supply scenarios. • High shale gas mix resulted in greatest emissions due to low influx of biomethane.

Low-Carbon Natural Gas for Transportation: Well-to-Wheels Emissions and Potential Market Assessment in California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Penev, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chen, Yuche [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-12-01

This report improves on the understanding of the long-term technology potential of low-carbon natural gas (LCNG) supply pathways by exploring transportation market adoption potential through 2035 in California. Techno-economic assessments of each pathway are developed to compare the capacity, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of select LCNG production pathways. The study analyzes the use of fuel from these pathways in light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle applications. Economic and life-cycle GHG emissions analysis suggest that landfill gas resources are an attractive and relatively abundant resource in terms of cost and GHG reduction potential, followed by waste water treatment plants and biomass with gasification and methanation. Total LCNG production potential is on the order of total natural gas demand anticipated in a success scenario for future natural gas vehicle adoption by 2035 across light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle markets (110 trillion Btu/year).

Scenario uncertainties in estimating direct land-use change emissions in biomass-to-energy life cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtright, Aimee E.; Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Skone, Timothy

2012-01-01

The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-derived energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is obtained and used. We explore scenario uncertainty in GHG estimates in the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model and find that direct land-use change emissions that result during the biomass production often dominate the total “farm-to-hopper” GHGs. CUBE represents each land-use change decision as a conversion of land from one of four specified baseline ecosystem to produce one of seven feedstock crops, both distinct by geographic region, and then determines the implied changes in soil organic carbon, root carbon, and above-ground biomass. CUBE therefore synthesizes and organizes the existing literature to represent direct land-use change emissions in a way that can be more readily incorporated into life cycle assessment. Our approach to representing direct land-use change literature has been applied to a specific set of data and offers immediate implications for decisionmakers, but it can also be generalized and replicated in the future, making use of improved scientific data on the magnitude and rates of direct land-use change emissions as it becomes available. -- Highlights: ► The GHG-intensity of bioenergy depends on how the biomass is obtained and used. ► Total GHG emissions may be dominated by direct land-use change emissions. ► There is significant scenario uncertainty in emissions based on the location of production. ► Emissions vary based on time elapsed since land-use change conversions. ► Our approach can be generalized to use improved scientific data in the future.

Modelling emissions from natural gas flaring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Ezaina Umukoro

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The world today recognizes the significance of environmental sustainability to the development of nations. Hence, the role oil and gas industry plays in environmental degrading activities such as gas flaring is of global concern. This study presents material balance equations and predicts results for non-hydrocarbon emissions such as CO2, CO, NO, NO2, and SO2 etc. from flaring (combustion of 12 natural gas samples representing composition of natural gas of global origin. Gaseous emission estimates and pattern were modelled by coding material balance equations for six reaction types and combustion conditions with a computer program. On the average, anticipated gaseous emissions from flaring natural gas with an average annual global flaring rate 126 bcm per year (between 2000 and 2011 in million metric tonnes (mmt are 560 mmt, 48 mmt, 91 mmt, 93 mmt and 50 mmt for CO2, CO, NO, NO2 and SO2 respectively. This model predicted gaseous emissions based on the possible individual combustion types and conditions anticipated in gas flaring operation. It will assist in the effort by environmental agencies and all concerned to track and measure the extent of environmental pollution caused by gas flaring operations in the oil and gas industry.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Electric-power systems planning and greenhouse-gas emission management under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.

2012-01-01

Highlight: ►A multistage stochastic integer programming model is developed for planning electric-power systems. ►Uncertain and dynamic information can be incorporated within a multilayer scenario tree. ►This can help minimize system cost under random energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement goal. ►Results can support decisions of facility expansion, electricity supply and GHG mitigation. - Abstract: In this study, a multistage interval-stochastic integer programming model is formulated for managing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and planning electric-power systems under uncertainty. The developed model can reflect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of energy systems. Besides, the model can be used for answering questions related to types, times, demands and mitigations of energy systems planning practices, with the objective of minimizing system cost over a long-time planning horizon. The solutions can help generate electricity-generation schemes and capacity-expansion plans under different GHG-mitigation options and electricity-demand levels. Tradeoffs among system cost, energy security, and emission management can also be tackled. A high system cost will increase renewable energy supply and reduce GHG emission, while a desire for a low cost will run into risks of a high energy deficiency and a high GHG emission.

Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Sie Ting; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Jeng Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew Tin; Yan, Jinyue

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH 4 ), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH 4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of Wt

Greenhouse gas emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosa, L.P.; Schaeffer, R.

1994-01-01

In a recent paper, Rudd et al. have suggested that, per unit of electrical energy produced, greenhouse-gas emissions from some hydroelectric reservoirs in northern Canada may be comparable to emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants. The purpose of this comment is to elaborate these issues further so as to understand the potential contribution of hydroelectric reservoirs to the greenhouse effect. More than focusing on the total budget of carbon emissions (be they in the form of CH 4 or be they in the form of CO 2 ), this requires an evaluation of the accumulated greenhouse effect of gas emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs and fossil-fuelled power plants. Two issues will be considered: (a) global warming potential (GWP) for CH 4 ; and (b) how greenhouse-gas emissions from hydroelectric power plants stand against emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants with respect to global warming

Air quality and greenhouse gas emissions (Chapter 3)

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Winkler, H

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Shale gas development (SGD) presents opportunities and risks with regards to air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a potential opportunity to reduce emissions, if shale gas replaces ‘dirtier’ (more emissions-intensive) fuels...

Reservoir Greenhouse Gas Emissions at Russian HPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fedorov, M. P.; Elistratov, V. V.; Maslikov, V. I.; Sidorenko, G. I.; Chusov, A. N.; Atrashenok, V. P.; Molodtsov, D. V. [St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University (Russian Federation); Savvichev, A. S. [Russian Academy of Sciences, S. N. Vinogradskii Institute of Microbiology (Russian Federation); Zinchenko, A. V. [A. I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (Russian Federation)

2015-05-15

Studies of greenhouse-gas emissions from the surfaces of the world’s reservoirs, which has demonstrated ambiguity of assessments of the effect of reservoirs on greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere, is analyzed. It is recommended that greenhouse- gas emissions from various reservoirs be assessed by the procedure “GHG Measurement Guidelines for Fresh Water Reservoirs” (2010) for the purpose of creating a data base with results of standardized measurements. Aprogram for research into greenhouse-gas emissions is being developed at the St. Petersburg Polytechnic University in conformity with the IHA procedure at the reservoirs impounded by the Sayano-Shushenskaya and Mainskaya HPP operated by the RusHydro Co.

Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, D.P. van

2007-01-01

In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Natural Gas Fired Power Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Hajny, K. D.; Shepson, P. B.; Rudek, J.; Stirm, B. H.; Kaeser, R.; Stuff, A. A.

2017-12-01

Natural gas is often discussed as a "bridge fuel" to transition to renewable energy as it only produces 51% the amount of CO2 per unit energy as coal. This, coupled with rapid increases in production fueled by technological advances, has led to a near tripling of natural gas used for electricity generation since 2005. One concern with this idea of a "bridge fuel" is that methane, the primary component of natural gas, is itself a potent greenhouse gas with 28 and 84 times the global warming potential of CO2 based on mass over a 100 and 20 year period, respectively. Studies have estimated that leaks from the point of extraction to end use of 3.2% would offset the climate benefits of natural gas. Previous work from our group saw that 3 combined cycle power plants emitted unburned CH4 from the stacks and leaked additional CH4 from equipment on site, but total loss rates were still less than 2.2%. Using Purdue's Airborne Laboratory for Atmospheric Research (ALAR) we completed additional aircraft based mass balance experiments combined with passes directly over power plant stacks to expand on the previous study. In this work, we have measured at 12 additional natural gas fired power plants including a mix of operation types (baseload, peaking, intermediate) and firing methods (combined cycle, simple thermal, combustion turbine). We have also returned to the 3 plants previously sampled to reinvestigate emissions for each of those, to assess reproducibility of the results. Here we report the comparison of reported continuous emissions monitoring systems (CEMS) data for CO2 to our emission rates calculated from mass balance experiments, as well as a comparison of calculated CH4 emission rates to estimated emission rates based on the EPA emission factor of 1 g CH4/mmbtu natural gas and CEMS reported heat input. We will also discuss emissions from a coal-fired plant which has been sampled by the group in the past and has since converted to natural gas. Lastly, we discuss the

CO Emissions from Gas Engines Operating on Biomass Producer Gas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Jensen, T. K.; Henriksen, Ulrik Birk

2004-01-01

High carbon monoxide (CO) emission from gas engines fueled by producer gas is a concerning problem in the struggle to make biomass gasification for heat and power production a success. CO emissions from engines operating on biomass producer gases are high, especially at very lean conditions where...

Effects of Local Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategies on Air Pollutant Emissions and on Health in Kuopio, Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arja Asikainen

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG abatement strategies often ends up as the responsibility of municipal action rather than national policies. Impacts of local GHG reduction measures were investigated in the EU FP7 funded project Urban Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China and Europe (URGENCHE. Kuopio in Finland was one of the case study cities. The assessed reduction measures were (1 increased use of biomass in local heat and power cogeneration plant, (2 energy efficiency improvements of residences, (3 increased biofuel use in traffic, and (4 increased small scale combustion of wood for residential heating. Impact assessment compared the 2010 baseline with a 2020 BAU (business as usual scenario and a 2020 CO2 interventions scenario. Changes in emissions were assessed for CO2, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10, NOx, and SO2, and respective impacts were assessed for PM2.5 ambient concentrations and health effects. The assessed measures would reduce the local CO2 emissions in the Kuopio urban area by over 50% and local emissions of PM2.5 would clearly decrease. However, the annual average ambient PM2.5 concentration would decrease by just 4%. Thus, only marginal population level health benefits would be achieved with these assumed local CO2 abatement actions.

Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - How to achieve substantial CO2 reductions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalgaard, T.; Olesen, J.E.; Petersen, S.O.; Petersen, B.M.; Jorgensen, U.; Kristensen, T.; Hutchings, N.J.; Gyldenkaerne, S.; Hermansen, J.E.

2011-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990-2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Highlights: → GHG emissions from Danish agriculture 1990-2010 are calculated, including carbon sequestration. → Effects of measures to further reduce GHG emissions are listed. → Land use scenarios for a substantially reduced GHG emission by 2050 are presented. → A 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable. → Via bioenergy production Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Scenario studies of greenhouse gas mitigation measures illustrate the possible realization of CO 2 reductions for Danish agriculture by 2050, sustaining current food production.

Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

2010-12-15

The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

2005-01-01

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

2007-01-01

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

2005-02-01

This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

The second generation model of greenhouse gas emissions: background and initial development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, R.; Wise, M.A.; Edmonds, J.A.; Pitcher, H.M.; Barns, D.

1992-01-01

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions has made enormous progress during the course of the past decade. We have progressed from the use of simple time-trend extrapolations to the analysis of emissions of several greenhouse gases with parallel but independent behavioral and optimization models of energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and land-use systems. But our ability to examine potential future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions is limited because modeling tools adequate to the task of integrating analyses of technologies and human activities on a global scale with regional detail, including energy production and consumption, agriculture, manufacture, capital formation, and land-use, along with the interdependencies between these categories, do not yet exist. The first generation of models were specialty models which focused on a particular aspect of the emissions problem without regard to how that activity interacted with other human and natural activities. The natural science pertaining to greenhouse warming now emphasizes the variety of gases associated with potential changes in the radiative composition of the atmosphere: CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , VOC's, chlorofluorocarbons, (CFC's) and CFC substitutes. Human activities generating the emissions of these gases are interdependent; actions taken to limit emissions from one segment of the economy will affect other segments of the economy. Policy issues such as the recycling of revenues from a carbon tax, land-use changes due to to tree-planting to sequestrate carbon dioxide or extensive development of biomass energy resources, require a more comprehensive modeling approach in which the relationship between technology, institutions, land use, economics and human activity is explicitly represented. The purpose of this paper is to describe briefly the design of a model which is capable of addressing greenhouse gas emissions and the consequences of alternative policy options. 7 refs

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Wei; Voet, Ester van der; Zhang Yufeng; Huppes, Gjalt

2009-01-01

The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO 2 eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are found to

Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao Wei [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Weijin Road 92, Nankai District 300072 (China); Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands)], E-mail: zhao@cml.leidenuniv.nl; Voet, Ester van der [Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands); Zhang Yufeng [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Weijin Road 92, Nankai District 300072 (China); Huppes, Gjalt [Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P. O. Box 9518, 2300RA, Leiden (Netherlands)

2009-02-15

The environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management have been highlighted in China, due to the continually increasing amount of MSW being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. Of particular interest is greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, aided by the Kyoto Mechanisms. China is an important case study for this global issue; however, an analysis of the entire life cycle of MSW management on GHG emissions is not available for China. This study evaluates the current and possible patterns of MSW management with regard to GHG emissions, using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on the Tianjin case. We assess the baseline scenario, reflecting the existing MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, five exploring waste treatment technology innovations and one exploring integrated MSW management, to quantitatively predict potentials of GHG mitigation for Tianjin. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the influence of landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency, recycling rate and methodological choice, especially allocation, on the outcomes. The results show GHG emissions from Tianjin's MSW management system amount to 467.34 Mg CO{sub 2} eq. per year, based on the treatment of MSW collected in the central districts in 2006, and the key issue is LFG released. The integrated MSW management scenario, combining different improvement options, shows the highest GHG mitigation potential. Given the limited financial support and the current waste management practice in Tianjin, LFG utilization scenario would be the preferred choice. The sensitivity analysis of recycling rate shows an approximately linear relation of inverse proportion between recycling rate and total GHG emissions. Kitchen waste composting makes a considerable contribution to total GHG emissions reduction. Allocation choices result in differences in total quantitative outcomes, but preference orders and contributions analysis are

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Emissions from oil and gas operations in the United States and their air quality implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, David T

2016-06-01

The energy supply infrastructure in the United States has been changing dramatically over the past decade. Increased production of oil and natural gas, particularly from shale resources using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, made the United States the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas in 2014. This review examines air quality impacts, specifically, changes in greenhouse gas, criteria air pollutant, and air toxics emissions from oil and gas production activities that are a result of these changes in energy supplies and use. National emission inventories indicate that volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from oil and gas supply chains in the United States have been increasing significantly, whereas emission inventories for greenhouse gases have seen slight declines over the past decade. These emission inventories are based on counts of equipment and operational activities (activity factors), multiplied by average emission factors, and therefore are subject to uncertainties in these factors. Although uncertainties associated with activity data and missing emission source types can be significant, multiple recent measurement studies indicate that the greatest uncertainties are associated with emission factors. In many source categories, small groups of devices or sites, referred to as super-emitters, contribute a large fraction of emissions. When super-emitters are accounted for, multiple measurement approaches, at multiple scales, produce similar results for estimated emissions. Challenges moving forward include identifying super-emitters and reducing their emission magnitudes. Work done to date suggests that both equipment malfunction and operational practices can be important. Finally, although most of this review focuses on emissions from energy supply infrastructures, the regional air quality implications of some coupled energy production and use scenarios are examined. These case studies suggest that both

Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clo, Stefano

2006-01-01

This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development [it

Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - How to achieve substantial CO{sub 2} reductions?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalgaard, T., E-mail: tommy.dalgaard@agrsci.dk [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Olesen, J.E.; Petersen, S.O.; Petersen, B.M.; Jorgensen, U.; Kristensen, T.; Hutchings, N.J. [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark); Gyldenkaerne, S. [Aarhus University, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Hermansen, J.E. [Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele (Denmark)

2011-11-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990-2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Highlights: > GHG emissions from Danish agriculture 1990-2010 are calculated, including carbon sequestration. > Effects of measures to further reduce GHG emissions are listed. > Land use scenarios for a substantially reduced GHG emission by 2050 are presented. > A 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable. > Via bioenergy production Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Scenario studies of greenhouse gas mitigation measures illustrate the possible realization of CO{sub 2} reductions for Danish agriculture by 2050, sustaining current food production.

How do farm models compare when estimating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy cattle production?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hutchings, Nicholas John; Özkan, Şeyda; de Haan, M

2018-01-01

The European Union Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) will require a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 from the sectors not included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, including agriculture. This will require the estimation of current and future...... from four farm-scale models (DairyWise, FarmAC, HolosNor and SFARMMOD) were calculated for eight dairy farming scenarios within a factorial design consisting of two climates (cool/dry and warm/wet)×two soil types (sandy and clayey)×two feeding systems (grass only and grass/maize). The milk yield per...

Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazioli, R.; Ricci, A.; Valentini, A.; Baratta, R.; Battaglia, A.; Conticelli, M.; Antonioli, B.; Beccarello, M.

2000-01-01

Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption [it

Drops of energy: conserving urban water to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yuanchun; Zhang, Bing; Wang, Haikun; Bi, Jun

2013-10-01

Water and energy are two essential resources of modern civilization and are inherently linked. Indeed, the optimization of the water supply system would reduce energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions in the municipal water sector. This research measured the climatic cobenefit of water conservation based on a water flow analysis. The results showed that the estimated energy consumption of the total water system in Changzhou, China, reached approximately 10% of the city's total energy consumption, whereas the industrial sector was found to be more energy intensive than other sectors within the entire water system, accounting for nearly 70% of the total energy use of the water system. In addition, four sustainable water management scenarios would bring the cobenefit of reducing the total energy use of the water system by 13.9%, and 77% of the energy savings through water conservation was indirect. To promote sustainable water management and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China would require its water price system, both for freshwater and recycled water, to be reformed.

Greenhouse gas emission from Australian coal mining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, D.

1998-01-01

Since 1997, when the Australian Coal Association (ACA) signed a letter of Intent in respect of the governments Greenhouse Challenge Program, it has encouraged its member companies to participate. Earlier this year, the ACA commissioned an independent scoping study on greenhouse gas emissions in the black coal mining industry This was to provide background information, including identification of information gaps and R and D needs, to guide the formulation of a strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the mining, processing and handling of black coals in Australia. A first step in the process of reducing emission levels is an appreciation of the source, quantity and type of emissions om nine sites. It is shown that greenhouse gas emissions on mine sites come from five sources: energy consumption during mining activities, the coal seam gas liberated due to the extraction process i.e. fugitive emissions, oxidation of carbonaceous wastes, land use, and embodied energy. Also listed are indications of the degree of uncertainty associated with each of the estimates

Does Increased Extraction of Natural Gas Reduce Carbon Emissions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, F.R.; Golombek, R.; Kittelsen, S.A. C.

2004-01-01

Without an international climate agreement, extraction of more natural gas could reduce emissions of CO2 as more 'clean' natural gas may drive out ''dirty'' coal and oil. Using a computable equilibrium model for the Western European electricity and natural gas markets, we examine whether increased extraction of natural gas in Norway reduces global emissions of CO2. We find that both in the short run and in the long run total emissions are reduced if the additional quantity of natural gas is used in gas power production in Norway. If instead the additional quantity is exported directly, total emissions increase both in the short run and in the long run. However, if modest CO2-taxes are imposed, increased extraction of natural gas will reduce CO2 emissions also when the additional natural gas is exported directed

The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

2017-03-01

Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P

2007-01-15

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

2016-01-01

The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Andrew

2008-01-01

This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions

Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross Morrow, W.; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Collantes, Gustavo; Lee, Henry

2010-01-01

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO 2 cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US's imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO 2 prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO 2 prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration's goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled. (author)

Impact of improved technology on industrial greenhouse-gas emissions in developing countries. Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-06-01

In response to a formal request by the Group of 77 and China, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) initiated a study to identify opportunities to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from energy-intensive industries in developing countries. These sectors currently include iron and steel, petroleum refining, cement, paper and pulp and nitrogen fertilizers. The aim of this first phase was to describe: how energy is used in the energy-intensive industries in developing countries today; what current trends indicate for the future; the potential contribution of improved technologies and practices to moving toward more sustainable industrial production in developing countries, and to provide developing countries with an analytical tool for evaluating opportunities to limit industrial greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in their industrial sectors through the transfer of improved technologies and processes. The immediate objectives of Phase 1 were twofold: to provide information to developing countries in the form of an inventory of energy-efficient, best-available technologies and processes that can be used to abate greenhouse-gas emissions in the most energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors as well as cross-cutting measures applicable in a range of sub-sectors, and; to provide an analytical methodology in the form of a software tool that enables the user to evaluate and compare the costs, energy requirements, and greenhouse-gas emissions associated with scenarios of specific technology and process options. To meet these objectives, the first phase of the study comprised: a Report entitled Industrial Greenhouse-gas Emissions from Developing Countries; a Software Package containing, an Industrial Technology Inventory, and an Analysis Tool, and; Industry/country-specific Case Studies. The Report describes current energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions in energy-intensive industries in developing countries, and similar industries exemplifying good

Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

2009-07-01

Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

2009-01-01

In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-02-01

Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

1990-01-01

Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation of energy crops may affect the sustainability of biofuels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carter, Mette Sustmann; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Heiske, Stefan

2011-01-01

will be lower than indicated by our data. We obtained the greatest net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by co-production of bioethanol and biogas or by biogas alone produced from either fresh grass-clover or whole crop maize. Here the net reduction corresponded to about 8 tons CO2 per hectare per year...... or incorporation of crop residues. In this study we relate measured field emissions of N2O to the reduction in fossil fuel-derived CO2, which is obtained when energy crops are used for biofuel production. The analysis includes five organically managed crops (viz. maize, rye, rye-vetch, vetch and grass......-clover) and three scenarios for conversion of biomass to biofuel. The scenarios are 1) bioethanol production, 2) biogas production and 3) co-production of bioethanol and biogas, where the energy crops are first used for bioethanol fermentation and subsequently the residues from this process are utilized for biogas...

Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2004-01-01

We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dril, A.W.N.; Elzenga, H.E.

2005-10-01

The Reference Projection 2005-2020 covers the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. Two scenarios have been used. The Strong Europe (SE) scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth and strong public responsibility. The Global Economy (GE) scenario assumes high economic growth and has a strong orientation towards private responsibility. Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction ef-forts abroad. Acidifying emissions of NOx and SO2 stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of particulate matter (PM10) will stabilise at present levels

Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez-López, Paula; Gasol, Carles M.; Oliver-Solà, Jordi; Huelin, Sagrario; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2013-01-01

The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions. - Highlights: • Three model stretches, representative of Spanish motorway conditions, were evaluated. • Three environmental improvement scenarios were proposed. • Speed limit seemed the easiest measure to implement in a near future. • Afforestation showed limited effectiveness per unit of land surface. • A drastic technological improvement is required to obtain significant reductions

Methane emissions from the natural gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, M.R.; Cowgill, R.M.; Campbell, L.M.; Lott, R.A.

1993-01-01

The U.S. EPA and the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have suggested that global warming could be reduced if more energy was generated using natural gas rather than fuels such as coal. An increased use of natural gas instead of coal would decrease global warming since methane emits less carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) than any fossil fuel. However, methane is a more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO 2 , and leakage from the gas system could reduce or eliminate the inherent advantage of natural gas. For this reason, methane emissions must be quantified before a national policy on preferred fuels is developed. Therefore, GRI and EPA have developed this confunded program to quantify methane emissions from the U.S. gas industry. This paper presents, for general industry review, the approach and methodology that the project is using to determine the emissions. The study will measure or calculate all gas industry methane emissions - from production at the wellhead, through the system, to the customer's meter. When these data are combined with data from other studies, a definitive comparison of the relative environmental impact of using methane versus other fuels will be possible. The study will also provide data that can be used by the industry to identify cost-effective mitigation techniques to reduce losses. The methane emissions project is being conducted in three phases: the first two phases have identified and ranked all known potential methane-emitting sources and established methods for measuring, calculating, and extrapolating emissions from those sources. The third phase, which is currently in progress, will gather sufficient data to achieve the accuracy goal. This paper briefly summarizes the methodology being used for the completion of the third phase

Suggested guidelines for gas emission monitoring at danish landfills

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Peter; Scheutz, Charlotte

2015-01-01

Landfill gas is produced on waste disposal sites receiving organic waste resulting in emission of methane. Regulation requires that the landfill gas is managed in order to reduce emissions, but very few suggestions exist to how the landfill gas management activities are monitored, what requirements...... to the ability of the landfill gas management to reduce the emission should be set up, and how criteria are developed for when the monitoring activities can be terminated. Monitoring procedures are suggested centred on a robust method for measuring the total methane emission from the site, and quantitative...

Greenhouse gas emissions related to Dutch food consumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, KJ; Moll, HC; Nonhebel, S; Wilting, HC

The consumption of food products involves emissions of greenhouse gases. Emissions occur in the various stages of the life cycle of food products. In this paper we discuss the greenhouse gas emissions, CO2, CH4, and N2O, related to Dutch household food consumption. Combinations of greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gas emissions from shale gas and coal for electricity generation in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brett Cohen

2014-03-01

Full Text Available There is increased interest, both in South Africa and globally, in the use of shale gas for electricity and energy supply. The exploitation of shale gas is, however, not without controversy, because of the reported environmental impacts associated with its extraction. The focus of this article is on the greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas, which some literature suggests may be higher than what would have been expected as a consequence of the contribution of fugitive emissions during extraction, processing and transport. Based on some studies, it has been suggested that life-cycle emissions may be higher than those from coal-fired power. Here we review a number of studies and analyse the data to provide a view of the likely greenhouse gas emissions from producing electricity from shale gas, and compare these emissions to those of coal-fired power in South Africa. Consideration was given to critical assumptions that determine the relative performance of the two sources of feedstock for generating electricity � that is the global warming potential of methane and the extent of fugitive emissions. The present analysis suggests that a 100-year time horizon is appropriate in analysis related to climate change, over which period the relative contribution is lower than for shorter periods. The purpose is to limit temperature increase in the long term and the choice of metric should be appropriate. The analysis indicates that, regardless of the assumptions about fugitive emissions and the period over which global warming potential is assessed, shale gas has lower greenhouse gas emissions per MWh of electricity generated than coal. Depending on various factors, electricity from shale gas would have a specific emissions intensity between 0.3 tCO2/MWh and 0.6 tCO2/MWh, compared with about 1 tCO2/MWh for coal-fired electricity in South Africa.

Monitoring greenhouse gas emissions from landfill sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eade, G.

2001-01-01

Methane is the chief component of natural gas, but also occurs naturally by the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in swamp areas, at landfill sites, in fact at any location where organic deposits are present. Carbon dioxide is also produced by the decomposition of organic material as well as being the primary by-product of combustion. This article focuses on techniques to test a wide variety of combustible and toxic gases, including surface emission testing of landfill sites. Specifically, it describes the Methane Emission Monitoring System (MEMS) developed by Hetek Solutions Inc., whose primary objective is to to effectively locate surface emissions of methane gas from active landfill sites using flame ionization (FI) technology, and to plot the 'hot spots' using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS), which provides sub-metre accuracy for plotting emissions locations at landfill sites. The FI equipment is installed on all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). Several thousand kilometers of pipeline inspections have been performed in Alberta and Saskatchewan using this system in the mid-1990s. The mobile FI/ATV units have been redesigned for landfill gas emission testing, equipped with new DGPS equipment and interface software. They meet the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) drafted in the United States in 1996, which requires all landfill sites to be inspected for methane gas emissions. Using the FI/ATV combination, productivity over conventional walking inspection procedures increased some 400 per cent, while monitoring accuracy is equivalent to or better than those provided by previous conventional methods. The company can also provide the Optical Methane Detector (OMD) system using infrared technology. They are capable of performing 14,000 measurements per second, thus providing immediate response. To date, ATV emissions testing has been proven to be very effective in various types of gas detection. When interfaced with DGPS technology, computer

Greenhouse Gas and Noxious Emissions from Dual Fuel Diesel and Natural Gas Heavy Goods Vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Stettler, Marc E J; Midgley, William J B; Swanson, Jacob J; Cebon, David; Boies, Adam M

2016-02-16

Dual fuel diesel and natural gas heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) operate on a combination of the two fuels simultaneously. By substituting diesel for natural gas, vehicle operators can benefit from reduced fuel costs and as natural gas has a lower CO2 intensity compared to diesel, dual fuel HGVs have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the freight sector. In this study, energy consumption, greenhouse gas and noxious emissions for five after-market dual fuel configurations of two vehicle platforms are compared relative to their diesel-only baseline values over transient and steady state testing. Over a transient cycle, CO2 emissions are reduced by up to 9%; however, methane (CH4) emissions due to incomplete combustion lead to CO2e emissions that are 50-127% higher than the equivalent diesel vehicle. Oxidation catalysts evaluated on the vehicles at steady state reduced CH4 emissions by at most 15% at exhaust gas temperatures representative of transient conditions. This study highlights that control of CH4 emissions and improved control of in-cylinder CH4 combustion are required to reduce total GHG emissions of dual fuel HGVs relative to diesel vehicles.

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. B. Zapata

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i on-road, (ii rail and off-road, (iii marine and aviation, (iv residential and commercial, (v electricity generation, and (vi biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG

Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

2018-04-01

The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs

Coal fired flue gas mercury emission controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jiang; Pan, Weiguo; Cao, Yan; Pan, Weiping

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is one of the most toxic heavy metals, harmful to both the environment and human health. Hg is released into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources and its emission control has caused much concern. This book introduces readers to Hg pollution from natural and anthropogenic sources and systematically describes coal-fired flue gas mercury emission control in industry, especially from coal-fired power stations. Mercury emission control theory and experimental research are demonstrated, including how elemental mercury is oxidized into oxidized mercury and the effect of flue gas contents on the mercury speciation transformation process. Mercury emission control methods, such as existing APCDs (air pollution control devices) at power stations, sorbent injection, additives in coal combustion and photo-catalytic methods are introduced in detail. Lab-scale, pilot-scale and full-scale experimental studies of sorbent injection conducted by the authors are presented systematically, helping researchers and engineers to understand how this approach reduces the mercury emissions in flue gas and to apply the methods in mercury emission control at coal-fired power stations.

Coal fired flue gas mercury emission controls

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Jiang; Pan, Weiguo [Shanghai Univ. of Electric Power (China); Cao, Yan; Pan, Weiping [Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY (United States)

2015-05-01

Mercury (Hg) is one of the most toxic heavy metals, harmful to both the environment and human health. Hg is released into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources and its emission control has caused much concern. This book introduces readers to Hg pollution from natural and anthropogenic sources and systematically describes coal-fired flue gas mercury emission control in industry, especially from coal-fired power stations. Mercury emission control theory and experimental research are demonstrated, including how elemental mercury is oxidized into oxidized mercury and the effect of flue gas contents on the mercury speciation transformation process. Mercury emission control methods, such as existing APCDs (air pollution control devices) at power stations, sorbent injection, additives in coal combustion and photo-catalytic methods are introduced in detail. Lab-scale, pilot-scale and full-scale experimental studies of sorbent injection conducted by the authors are presented systematically, helping researchers and engineers to understand how this approach reduces the mercury emissions in flue gas and to apply the methods in mercury emission control at coal-fired power stations.

Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emission Evaluation Scenarios of Mea Fah Luang University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laingoen Onn

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In Thailand, quantity of the educational institutes building shared one fourth of commercial building. Among the energy consumption and conservation in the building in Thailand are mostly study in typical office and resident building. Mea Fah Luang University (MFU was selected to represent the educational institutes building where located in the northern part of Thailand. The average temperature in the northern is lower than other parts of Thailand. This study was firstly collected the data about quantity and behaviour of energy consumption in MFU based on the energy audit handbook. Although MFU is located in the northern of Thailand. The highest energy consumption is in the part of air condition. When the energy efficiency appliances and energy conservation building are implemented, the cost of energy will be saved around 15,867,960 Baht. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emission is also reduced about 72.01 kg CO2, equivalent/m2/year.

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

2003-01-01

In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S.K.; Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S.; Tyagi, R.D.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. → Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace → Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO 2 eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO 2 eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to

Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gassara, Fatma [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Brar, S.K., E-mail: satinder.brar@ete.inrs.ca [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S. [Institut de recherche et de developpement en agroenvironnement inc. (IRDA), 2700 rue Einstein, Quebec (Quebec), Canada G1P 3W8 (Canada); Tyagi, R.D. [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada)

2011-09-15

Highlights: {yields} Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. {yields} Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace {yields} Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data

Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

2014-08-19

Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sungwook Yoon

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement, 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000, 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500, and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000. The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.

Future forecast for life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of LNG and city gas 13A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamura, Tomohito; Furukawa, Michinobu; Ishitani, Hisashi

2007-01-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the most up-to-date data available on total greenhouse-gas emissions of a LNG fuel supply chain and life-cycle of city gas 13A based on surveys of the LNG projects delivering to Japan, which should provide useful basic-data for conducting life-cycle analyses of other product systems as well as future alternative energy systems, because of highly reliable data qualified in terms of its source and representativeness. In addition, the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 were also predicted, taking into account not only the improvement of technologies, but also the change of composition of LNG projects. As a result of this analysis, the total amount of greenhouse-gas emissions of the whole city-gas 13A chain at present was calculated to be 61.91 g-CO 2 /MJ, and the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 could be expected to decrease by about 1.1% of the current emissions

Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal, conventional and unconventional natural gas for electricity generation

Science.gov (United States)

An analysis of the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with natural gas use recently published by Howarth et al. (2011) stated that use of natural gas produced from shale formations via hydraulic fracturing would generate greater lifecycle GHG emissions than petro...

Emissions credits from natural gas vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, J.F.; Kodjak, D.

1997-01-01

Dedicated natural gas vehicles (NGVs) often are capable of testing to lower than federally required engine certification standards. NGVs often meet inherently low emission vehicle (ILEV) and ultra low emission vehicle (ULEV) standards. Over the useful life of the vehicle, a significant amount of mobile source emission reduction credits (MSERCs) can be generated. This paper will discuss key elements of establishing a workable methodology to quantify the emissions benefits generated through the purchase and use of heavy-duty natural gas vehicles instead of heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The paper will focus on a public fleet of transit buses owned by the Massachusetts Bay Transit Agency, the Massachusetts Port Authority, and a private fleet of waste haulers. Public fleets may generate emission credits as a key compliance option to offset emission shortfalls from changes to the Employee Commute Options (ECO) program, the Inspection and Maintenance program, and facilitate annual surface transportation conformity. Private fleets may generate emission credits for open market trading to area and stationary sources seeking to buy credits from mobile sources, where allowed by EPA and state policy

Opportunities to reduce methane emissions in the natural gas industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowgill, R.M. [Radian Corporation, Austin, TX (United States)

1995-12-31

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) cofunded a project to quantify methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions from the U.S. natural gas industry. Methane, the major constituent of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas that is believed to increase the effect of global warming when released to the atmosphere. Reducing emissions from natural gas systems would lessen the greenhouse gas effect attributable to atmospheric CH{sub 4}. Further, mitigation methods to reduce emissions of natural gas, a marketable resource, could save money and increase energy efficiency. This presentation summarizes the major sources and quantity of methane being emitted to the atmosphere for all segments of the U.S. gas industry: production; processing; storage; transmission; and distribution. A description of how those emissions were determined is included here, as well as a discussion of which sources are potential candidates for reducing emissions. (author)

Opportunities to reduce methane emissions in the natural gas industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowgill, R M [Radian Corporation, Austin, TX (United States)

1996-12-31

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) cofunded a project to quantify methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions from the U.S. natural gas industry. Methane, the major constituent of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas that is believed to increase the effect of global warming when released to the atmosphere. Reducing emissions from natural gas systems would lessen the greenhouse gas effect attributable to atmospheric CH{sub 4}. Further, mitigation methods to reduce emissions of natural gas, a marketable resource, could save money and increase energy efficiency. This presentation summarizes the major sources and quantity of methane being emitted to the atmosphere for all segments of the U.S. gas industry: production; processing; storage; transmission; and distribution. A description of how those emissions were determined is included here, as well as a discussion of which sources are potential candidates for reducing emissions. (author)

Opportunities to reduce methane emissions in the natural gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowgill, R.M.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) cofunded a project to quantify methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the U.S. natural gas industry. Methane, the major constituent of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas that is believed to increase the effect of global warming when released to the atmosphere. Reducing emissions from natural gas systems would lessen the greenhouse gas effect attributable to atmospheric CH 4 . Further, mitigation methods to reduce emissions of natural gas, a marketable resource, could save money and increase energy efficiency. This presentation summarizes the major sources and quantity of methane being emitted to the atmosphere for all segments of the U.S. gas industry: production; processing; storage; transmission; and distribution. A description of how those emissions were determined is included here, as well as a discussion of which sources are potential candidates for reducing emissions. (author)

Reference outlook for energy and emissions 2005-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dril, A.W.N.; Elzenga, H.E.

2005-05-01

The Reference Projection 2005-2020 covers the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. Two scenarios have been used. The Strong Europe (SE) scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth and strong public responsibility. The Global Economy (GE) scenario assumes high economic growth and has a strong orientation towards private responsibility. Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction efforts abroad. Acidifying emissions of NOx and SO2 stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of fine particles (PM10) will stabilise at present levels [nl

Electrification and Decarbonization: Exploring U.S. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bielen, Dave [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eichman, Josh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wilson, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-07-19

Electrification of end-use services in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors coupled with decarbonization of electricity generation has been identified as one of the key pathways to achieving a low-carbon future in the United States. By lowering the carbon intensity of the electricity generation and substituting electricity for higher-emissions fossil fuels in end-use sectors, significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. This report describes a preliminary analysis that examines the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the U.S. energy sector. We develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is aggressively pursued across all end-use sectors and examine the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on electricity load patterns, total fossil energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and the evolution of the U.S. power system.

State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

This document provides an overview of the latest available estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for Australia's States and Territories. Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 amounted to 564.7 million tonnes. The State and Territory breakdown was: New South Wales: 158.7 million tonnes (Mt); Queensland: 158.5 Mt; Victoria: 123.0 Mt; Western Australia: 68.5 Mt; South Australia: 27.6 Mt; Northern Territory: 15.6 Mt; Tasmania: 10.7 Mt; ACT: 1.2 Mt. The summary of State and Territory inventories presented in this document reports estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for each State and Territory for the period 1990 to 2004. It is the first time that a complete annual time-series has been reported

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Wisconsin Reduces Emissions With Natural Gas

Science.gov (United States)

Trucks Wisconsin Reduces Emissions With Natural Gas Trucks to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Wisconsin Reduces Emissions With Natural Gas Trucks on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Wisconsin Reduces Emissions With Natural Gas Trucks on Twitter Bookmark

Towards a comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions inventory for biosolids.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez-Gaitan, J P; Short, Michael D; Lundie, Sven; Stuetz, Richard

2016-06-01

Effective handling and treatment of the solids fraction from advanced wastewater treatment operations carries a substantial burden for water utilities relative to the total economic and environmental impacts from modern day wastewater treatment. While good process-level data for a range of wastewater treatment operations are becoming more readily available, there remains a dearth of high quality operational data for solids line processes in particular. This study seeks to address this data gap by presenting a suite of high quality, process-level life cycle inventory data covering a range of solids line wastewater treatment processes, extending from primary treatment through to biosolids reuse in agriculture. Within the study, the impacts of secondary treatment technology and key parameters such as sludge retention time, activated sludge age and primary-to-waste activated sludge ratio (PS:WAS) on the life cycle inventory data of solids processing trains for five model wastewater treatment plant configurations are presented. BioWin(®) models are calibrated with real operational plant data and estimated electricity consumption values were reconciled against overall plant energy consumption. The concept of "representative crop" is also introduced in order to reduce the uncertainty associated with nitrous oxide emissions and soil carbon sequestration offsets under biosolids land application scenarios. Results indicate that both the treatment plant biogas electricity offset and the soil carbon sequestration offset from land-applied biosolids, represent the main greenhouse gas mitigation opportunities. In contrast, fertiliser offsets are of relatively minor importance in terms of the overall life cycle emissions impacts. Results also show that fugitive methane emissions at the plant, as well as nitrous oxide emissions both at the plant and following agricultural application of biosolids, are significant contributors to the overall greenhouse gas balance and combined are

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the production of fluid milk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasula, Peggy M; Nutter, Darin W

2011-01-01

Global climate change, driven by the buildup of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, is challenging the dairy industries in the United States and throughout the world to develop sustainable initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. The U.S. dairy industry has committed to lowering the GHG emissions, primarily CH(4), N(2)O, and CO(2), in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain which extends from the farm, to the processing plant, and to distribution of the packaged product, where it is refrigerated by the retailer and then the consumer. This chapter provides an overview of the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique and its use in identifying the GHG emissions in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain, from cradle to grave, and the best practices and research that is currently being conducted to reduce or mitigate GHG emissions in each sector. We also discuss the use of on-farm and off-farm process simulation as tools for evaluating on-farm mitigation techniques, off-farm alternative processing scenarios, and use of alternative energy management practices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Methane emissions from U.S. natural gas operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lott, R.A.

1992-01-01

The Gas Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are cofunding and comanaging a program to evaluate methane emissions from U.S. natural gas operations. The purpose of the program is to provide an emissions inventory accurate enough for global climate modeling and for addressing the policy question of ''whether encouraging the increased use of natural gas is a viable strategy for reducing the U.S. contribution to global warming''. The program is comprised of three phases: Scoping, Methods Development, and Implementation. The purpose of Phase I was to define the problem. Phase II of the program concentrated on developing techniques for measuring steady state or fugitive emissions and for calculating the highly variable unsteady emissions from the variety of sources that comprise the gas industry. Because of the large number of sources within each source type, techniques were also developed for extrapolating emissions data to similar sources within the industry. Phase III of the program was started in early 1992 and should be completed in early 1994. The purpose of the current phase of the program is to collect sufficient data to achieve the accuracy goal of determining emissions to within ± 0.5 percent of production. Based on the limited amount of data collected to date, methane emissions from the U.S. gas industry appear to be in the range of 1 percent of production. (au) (19 refs.)

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Particle emissions from compressed natural gas engines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ristovski, Z.D.; Morawska, L.; Hitchins, J.; Thomas, S.; Greenaway, C.; Gilbert, D.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the results of measurements conducted to determine particle and gas emissions from two large compressed natural gas (CNG) spark ignition (SI) engines. Particle size distributions in the range from 0.01-30 μm, and gas composition were measured for five power settings of the engines: 35, 50, 65, 80 and 100% of full power. Particle emissions in the size range between 0.5 and 30 μm, measured by the aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), were very low at a level below two particles cm -3 . These concentrations were comparable with average ambient concentration, and were not considered in the succeeding analysis. Both engines produce significant amounts of particles in the size range between 0.015 and 0.7 μm, measured by the scanning mobility particle size (SMPS). Maximum number of concentrations of about 1 x 10 7 particles cm -3 were very similar for both engines. The CMDs were in the range between 0.020 and 0.060 μm. The observed levels of particulate emission are in terms of number of the same order as emissions from heavy duty diesel engines (Morawska et al., Environ. Sci. Tech. 32, 2033-2042). On the other hand, emissions of CO and NO x of 5.53 and 3.33 g k W h -1 , respectively, for one of the tested engines, were considerably lower than set by the standards. According to the specifications for the gas emissions, provided by the US EPA (US EPA, 1997), this engine can be considered as a 'low-emission' engine, although emissions of submicrometer particles are of the same order as heavy-duty vehicles. (Author)

Considering the Role of Natural Gas in the Deep Decarbonization of the U.S. Electricity Sector. Natural Gas and the Evolving U.S. Power Sector Monograph Series: Number 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beppler, Ross [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zinaman, Owen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-02-12

Natural gas generation in the U.S. electricity sector has grown substantially in recent years, while the sector's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have generally declined. This relationship highlights the concept of natural gas as a potential enabler of a transition to a lower-carbon future. This work considers that concept by using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a long-term capacity expansion model of the U.S. electricity sector. We examine the role of natural gas within the ReEDS modeling framework as increasingly strict carbon emission targets are imposed on the electricity sector. In addition to various natural gas price futures, we also consider scenarios that emphasize a low-carbon technology in order to better understand the role of natural gas if that low-carbon technology shows particular promise. Specifically, we consider scenarios with high amounts of energy efficiency (EE), low nuclear power costs, low renewable energy (RE) costs, and low carbon capture and storage (CCS) costs. Within these scenarios we find that requiring the electricity sector to lower CO2 emissions over time increases near-to-mid-term (through 2030) natural gas generation (see Figure 1 - left). The long-term (2050) role of natural gas generation in the electricity sector is dependent on the level of CO2 emission reduction required. Moderate reductions in long-term CO2 emissions have relatively little impact on long-term natural gas generation, while more stringent CO2 emission limits lower long-term natural gas generation (see Figure 1 - right). More stringent carbon targets also impact other generating technologies, with the scenarios considered here seeing significant decreases in coal generation, and new capacity of nuclear and renewable energy technologies over time. Figure 1 also demonstrates the role of natural gas in the context of scenarios where a specific low-carbon technology is advantaged. In

NOx emission reduction from gas turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groppi, G.; Lietti, L.; Forzatti, P.

2001-01-01

NO x emissions from gas turbines are a serious environmental concern. Primary control technologies significantly reduce NO x formation, which however is still too high to match increasingly strict emission laws. Catalytic processes can provide lower NO x emissions both as primary and secondary control methods, but their economics should be carefully addressed [it

Compendium of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation Methodologies for the Oil and Gas Industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shires, T.M.; Loughran, C.J. [URS Corporation, Austin, TX (United States)

2004-02-01

This document is a compendium of currently recognized methods and provides details for all oil and gas industry segments to enhance consistency in emissions estimation. This Compendium aims to accomplish the following goals: Assemble an expansive collection of relevant emission factors for estimating GHG emissions, based on currently available public documents; Outline detailed procedures for conversions between different measurement unit systems, with particular emphasis on implementation of oil and gas industry standards; Provide descriptions of the multitude of oil and gas industry operations, in its various segments, and the associated emissions sources that should be considered; and Develop emission inventory examples, based on selected facilities from the various segments, to demonstrate the broad applicability of the methodologies. The overall objective of developing this document is to promote the use of consistent, standardized methodologies for estimating GHG emissions from petroleum industry operations. The resulting Compendium documents recognized calculation techniques and emission factors for estimating GHG emissions for oil and gas industry operations. These techniques cover the calculation or estimation of emissions from the full range of industry operations - from exploration and production through refining, to the marketing and distribution of products. The Compendium presents and illustrates the use of preferred and alternative calculation approaches for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions for all common emission sources, including combustion, vented, and fugitive. Decision trees are provided to guide the user in selecting an estimation technique based on considerations of materiality, data availability, and accuracy. API will provide (free of charge) a calculation tool based on the emission estimation methodologies described herein. The tool will be made available at http://ghg.api.org/.

Life cycle and economic assessment of source-separated MSW collection with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: a case study in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Jun; Ni, Mingjiang; Chi, Yong; Zou, Daoan; Fu, Chao

2013-08-01

In China, the continuously increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) has resulted in an urgent need for changing the current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) system based on mixed collection. A pilot program focusing on source-separated MSW collection was thus launched (2010) in Hangzhou, China, to lessen the related environmental loads. And greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Kyoto Protocol) are singled out in particular. This paper uses life cycle assessment modeling to evaluate the potential environmental improvement with regard to GHG emissions. The pre-existing MSWM system is assessed as baseline, while the source separation scenario is compared internally. Results show that 23 % GHG emissions can be decreased by source-separated collection compared with the base scenario. In addition, the use of composting and anaerobic digestion (AD) is suggested for further optimizing the management of food waste. 260.79, 82.21, and -86.21 thousand tonnes of GHG emissions are emitted from food waste landfill, composting, and AD, respectively, proving the emission reduction potential brought by advanced food waste treatment technologies. Realizing the fact, a modified MSWM system is proposed by taking AD as food waste substitution option, with additional 44 % GHG emissions saved than current source separation scenario. Moreover, a preliminary economic assessment is implemented. It is demonstrated that both source separation scenarios have a good cost reduction potential than mixed collection, with the proposed new system the most cost-effective one.

Toxic fluoride gas emissions from lithium-ion battery fires.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsson, Fredrik; Andersson, Petra; Blomqvist, Per; Mellander, Bengt-Erik

2017-08-30

Lithium-ion battery fires generate intense heat and considerable amounts of gas and smoke. Although the emission of toxic gases can be a larger threat than the heat, the knowledge of such emissions is limited. This paper presents quantitative measurements of heat release and fluoride gas emissions during battery fires for seven different types of commercial lithium-ion batteries. The results have been validated using two independent measurement techniques and show that large amounts of hydrogen fluoride (HF) may be generated, ranging between 20 and 200 mg/Wh of nominal battery energy capacity. In addition, 15-22 mg/Wh of another potentially toxic gas, phosphoryl fluoride (POF 3 ), was measured in some of the fire tests. Gas emissions when using water mist as extinguishing agent were also investigated. Fluoride gas emission can pose a serious toxic threat and the results are crucial findings for risk assessment and management, especially for large Li-ion battery packs.

Integrated 1st and 2nd generation sugarcane bio-refinery for jet fuel production in Brazil: Techno-economic and greenhouse gas emissions assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, Catarina I.; Silva, Constança C.; Mussatto, Solange I.

2017-01-01

). Although, the MJSP calculated for all scenarios are higher than those of the fossil jet fuel reference, the significant potential for environmental impacts reduction (in terms of GHG emissions and primary energy use) are encouraging for further research in costs reduction and technology development....... (i.e. co-generation). From the combination of these key features, 81 scenarios are selected and compared. Furthermore, three potential technological improvements were analysed for selected scenarios: i) recovery of acetic acid and furfural (for cases with bagasse pretreatment); ii) production.......e. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and non-renewable energy use (NREU)). Among the scenarios considering biomass pretreatment, the lower MJSP are obtained when 1G/2G sugars are upgraded via ethanol fermentation (ETJ) (i.e. SO2 steam explosion: 3409 US $.ton−1, and wet oxidation: 3230 US $.ton−1). Additional...

Continuous Monitoring of CH4 Emissions from Marcellus Shale Gas Extraction in South West Pennsylvania Using Top Down Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmiento, D. P.; Belmecheri, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Sowers, T. A.; Bryant, S.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Aikins, J.; Sweeney, C.; Petron, G.; Davis, K. J.

2012-12-01

Natural gas extraction from shale formations via hydraulic-fracturing (fracking) is expanding rapidly in several regions of North America. In Pennsylvania, the number of wells drilled to extract natural gas from the Marcellus shale has grown from 195 in 2008 to 1,386 in 2010. The gas extraction process using the fracking technology results in the escape of methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas and the principal component of natural gas, into the atmosphere. Emissions of methane from fracking operations remain poorly quantified, leading to a large range of scenarios for the contribution of fracking to climate change. A mobile measurement campaign provided insights on methane leakage rates and an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal variability in active drilling areas in the South West of Pennsylvania. Two towers were then instrumented to monitor fugitive emissions of methane from well pads, pipelines, and other infrastructures in the area. The towers, one within a drilling region and one upwind of active drilling, measured atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios continuously. Isotopic measurements from air flasks were also collected. Data from the initial mobile campaign were used to estimate emission rates from single sites such as wells and compressor stations. Tower data will be used to construct a simple atmospheric inversion for regional methane emissions. Our results show the daily variability in emissions and allow us to estimate leakage rates over a one month period in South West Pennsylvania. We discuss potential deployment strategies in drilling zones to monitor emissions of methane over longer periods of time.

Particle Emissions from Domestic Gas Cookers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glarborg, Peter; Livbjerg, Hans; Wagner, Ayten Yilmaz

2010-01-01

The authors experimentally studied the formation of submicron particles from a domestic gas cooker in a compartment free from external particle sources. The effects of fuel (methane, natural gas, odorant-free natural gas), primary aeration, flow rate, and fuel sulphur content on particle emissions...... of the emitted particles were found to have a mean value of about 7 nm for partially premixed flames, increasing to ∼10 nm for nonpremixed flames. The quantity of primary air had a strong impact on the particle emissions, showing a minimum at a primary aeration level of 60-65%. Presence of sulphur in small...... quantities may enhance particle formation under some conditions, but results were not conclusive....

Healthy diets with reduced environmental impact? - The greenhouse gas emissions of various diets adhering to the Dutch food based dietary guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Kamp, Mirjam E; van Dooren, Corné; Hollander, Anne; Geurts, Marjolein; Brink, Elizabeth J; van Rossum, Caroline; Biesbroek, Sander; de Valk, Elias; Toxopeus, Ido B; Temme, Elisabeth H M

2018-02-01

To determine the differences in environmental impact and nutrient content of the current Dutch diet and four healthy diets aimed at lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions (as proxy for environmental impact) and nutrient content of the current Dutch diet and four diets adhering to the Dutch food based dietary guidelines (Wheel of Five), were compared in a scenario study. Scenarios included a healthy diet with or without meat, and the same diets in which only foods with relatively low GHG emissions are chosen. For the current diet, data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2007-2010 were used. GHG emissions (in kg CO 2 -equivalents) were based on life cycle assessments. Results are reported for men and women aged 19-30years and 31-50years. The effect on GHG emissions of changing the current Dutch diet to a diet according to the Wheel of Five (corresponding with the current diet as close as possible), ranged from -13% for men aged 31-50years to +5% for women aged 19-30years. Replacing meat in this diet and/or consuming only foods with relatively low GHG emissions resulted in average GHG emission reductions varying from 28-46%. In the scenarios in which only foods with relatively low GHG emissions are consumed, fewer dietary reference intakes (DRIs) were met than in the other healthy diet scenarios. However, in all healthy diet scenarios the number of DRIs being met was equal to or higher than that in the current diet. Diets adhering to food based dietary guidelines did not substantially reduce GHG emissions compared to the current Dutch diet, when these diets stayed as close to the current diet as possible. Omitting meat from these healthy diets or consuming only foods with relatively low associated GHG emissions both resulted in GHG emission reductions of around a third. These findings may be used to expand food based dietary guidelines with information on how to reduce the environmental impact of healthy diets. Copyright © 2017 The

Greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms. Proceedings - CATEP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms for greenhouse gas reduction are emerging market-based instruments for climate change policy. This book presents a selection of papers from an international workshop co-sponsored by the OECD and Concerted Action on Tradeable Emissions Permits (CATEP), to discuss key research and policy issues relating to the design and implementation of these instruments. The papers cover the experience of developing and transition countries with greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms. In addition, the papers examine the use of tradeable permits in policy mixes and harmonisation of emissions trading schemes, as well as transition issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions trading markets.

Estimated Emissions from the Prime-Movers of Unconventional Natural Gas Well Development Using Recently Collected In-Use Data in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Derek; Heltzel, Robert; Nix, Andrew; Darzi, Mahdi; Oliver, Dakota

2018-05-01

Natural gas from shale plays dominates new production and growth. However, unconventional well development is an energy intensive process. The prime movers, which include over-the-road service trucks, horizontal drilling rigs, and hydraulic fracturing pumps, are predominately powered by diesel engines that impact air quality. Instead of relying on certification data or outdated emission factors, this model uses new in-use emissions and activity data combined with historical literature to develop a national emissions inventory. For the diesel only case, hydraulic fracturing engines produced the most NO x emissions, while drilling engines produced the most CO emissions, and truck engines produced the most THC emissions. By implementing dual-fuel and dedicated natural gas engines, total fuel energy consumed, CO 2 , CO, THC, and CH 4 emissions would increase, while NO x emissions, diesel fuel consumption, and fuel costs would decrease. Dedicated natural gas engines offered significant reductions in NO x emissions. Additional scenarios examined extreme cases of full fleet conversions. While deep market penetrations could reduce fuel costs, both technologies could significantly increase CH 4 emissions. While this model is based on a small sample size of engine configurations, data were collected during real in-use activity and is representative of real world activity.

Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Hong, Taehoon

2014-01-01

Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO 2 analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment

Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

2009-01-01

Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

OPIC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

Data.gov (United States)

Overseas Private Investment Corporation — Independent analysis details quantifying the greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions directly attributable to projects to which the Overseas Private Investment Corporation...

Increasing beef production could lower greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil if decoupled from deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira Silva, R.; Barioni, L. G.; Hall, J. A. J.; Folegatti Matsuura, M.; Zanett Albertini, T.; Fernandes, F. A.; Moran, D.

2016-05-01

Recent debate about agricultural greenhouse gas emissions mitigation highlights trade-offs inherent in the way we produce and consume food, with increasing scrutiny on emissions-intensive livestock products. Although most research has focused on mitigation through improved productivity, systemic interactions resulting from reduced beef production at the regional level are still unexplored. A detailed optimization model of beef production encompassing pasture degradation and recovery processes, animal and deforestation emissions, soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and upstream life-cycle inventory was developed and parameterized for the Brazilian Cerrado. Economic return was maximized considering two alternative scenarios: decoupled livestock-deforestation (DLD), assuming baseline deforestation rates controlled by effective policy; and coupled livestock-deforestation (CLD), where shifting beef demand alters deforestation rates. In DLD, reduced consumption actually leads to less productive beef systems, associated with higher emissions intensities and total emissions, whereas increased production leads to more efficient systems with boosted SOC stocks, reducing both per kilogram and total emissions. Under CLD, increased production leads to 60% higher emissions than in DLD. The results indicate the extent to which deforestation control contributes to sustainable intensification in Cerrado beef systems, and how alternative life-cycle analytical approaches result in significantly different emission estimates.

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

2011-01-01

Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

Methodology for reporting 2011 B.C. public sector greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-12-15

In order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, British Columbia promulgated legislation under which the public sector is expected to become carbon neutral starting in 2010 and provincial public sector organizations (PSOs) must report their emissions annually. The aim of this report is to present the emission factors and methodology for calculating and reporting PSO emissions used in 2011. Emission factors represent the amount of greenhouse gas emitted from a specific activity. This document provides emission factors for all in scope categories: stationary sources, indirect emissions, mobile sources and business travel; it also presents a sample calculation of greenhouse gas emissions. The government of British Columbia developed SMARTTool, a web-based program which calculates and reports emissions from stationary sources, indirect emissions and mobile sources. In addition the SMART Travel Emissions Calculator was created to report business travel greenhouse gas emissions through SMARTTool.

Improving the technology of purification of gas emissions petrochemical industries

OpenAIRE

USMANOVA R.R.; ZAIKOV G.E.

2014-01-01

The technology of cleaning of gas emissions flares in the production of synthetic rubber. Developed dynamic scrubber for scrubbing gas emissions. Complex studies served as the basis for the design of an air purification system of industrial premises. Purification of gas emissions before combustion in flares has significantly reduced air pollution by toxic substances.

Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. The research approaches include 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions. To inform th

Accouting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Beaulieu, J. J.; Deemer, B. R.; Harrison, J. A.; Nietch, C. T.; Waldo, S.

2016-12-01

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a `basis for future methodological development' due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions linked to the National Lakes Assessment.

Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

1996-07-01

Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

NF ISO 14064-2. Greenhouse gases. Part 2: specifications and guidance at the project level for quantification, monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emission reductions or removal enhancements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This document describes methodology for quantification, monitoring and reporting of activities intended to cause greenhouse gas emissions and reductions at projects level (activity modifying the conditions identified in a baseline scenario, intended to reduce emissions or to increase the removal of greenhouse gases). Thus it suggests a method for the declarations of inventory of projects greenhouse gases and provides support for the monitoring and the management of emissions. It provides terms and definitions, principles, the introduction to greenhouse gases projects and the requirements for greenhouse gas projects. (A.L.B.)

Utilization of biodiesel from castor oil in gas micro turbines: thermal performance testing and emissions; Utilizacao do biodiesel de mamona em microturbinas a gas: testes de desempenho termico e emissoes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nascimento, Marco Antonio R.; Lora, Electo Silva; Venturini, Osvaldo Jose; Maldonado, Manuel Rendon; Andrade, Rubenildo Viera; Correa Junior, Paulo Sergio Pedroso [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)], Emails: marcoantonio@unifei.edu.br, electo@unifei.edu.br, osvaldo@unifei.edu.br, nrendon@unifei.edu.br, ruben@unifei.edu.br, paulocorrea@unifei.edu.br; Leite, Marco Antonio Haikal [Centro de Pesquisas Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: mahaikal@petrobras.com.br

2006-07-01

The operation of power equipment such as a gas micro-turbine using renewable fuels is an interesting alternative when sustainability is concerned, mainly in isolated areas with abundant availability of fuels that come from biomass. Within this scenario, this article presents the results of tests regarding thermal performance and emissions of a gas micro-turbine operating with Diesel and bio diesel mixtures, showing the influence of the use of this fuel on the thermal behavior of the machine and on the emissions of gases such as CO, NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2}. The results of the experimental tests are shown in graphs, from where it can be observed that the bio diesel and its mixtures do not change the thermal behavior of the micro-turbine significantly, and at the same time, they may considerably reduce the emission of gaseous pollutants. (author)

Hazardous air pollutant emissions from gas-fired combustion sources: emissions and the effects of design and fuel type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

England, G.C.; McGrath, T.P. [GE-Energy and Environmental Research Corp., Irvine, CA (United States); Gilmer, L. [Equilon Enterprises, Bellaire, TX (United States); Seebold, J.G. [Chevron Research and Technology Co., Richmond, CA (United States); Lev-On, M. [ARCO, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Hunt, T. [American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC (United States)

2001-07-01

Air emissions from gas-fired combustion devices such as boilers, process heaters, gas turbines and stationary reciprocating engines contain hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) subjected to consideration under the federal clean air act (CAA). This work presents a recently completed major research project to develop an understanding of HAP emissions from gas-fired boilers and process heaters and new HAP emission factors based on field emission tests of gas-fired external combustion devices used in the petroleum industry. The effect of combustion system design and operating parameters on HAP emissions determined by both field and research tests are discussed. Data from field tests of gas-fired petroleum industry boilers and heaters generally show very low emission levels of organic HAPs. A comparison of the emission data for boilers and process heaters, including units with and without various forms of NO{sub x} emission controls, showed no significant difference in organic HAP emission characteristics due to process or burner design. This conclusion is also supported by the results of research tests with different burner designs. Based on field tests of units fired with natural gas and various petroleum industry process gases and research tests in which gas composition was intentionally varied, organic HAP emissions were not determined to be significantly affected by the gas composition. Research data indicate that elevated organic HAP emission levels are found only under extreme operating conditions (starved air or high excess air combustion) associated with poor combustion. (author)

Hazardous air pollutant emissions from gas-fired combustion sources: emissions and the effects of design and fuel type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

England, G.C.; McGrath, T.P.; Gilmer, L.; Seebold, J.G.; Lev-On, M.; Hunt, T.

2001-01-01

Air emissions from gas-fired combustion devices such as boilers, process heaters, gas turbines and stationary reciprocating engines contain hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) subjected to consideration under the federal clean air act (CAA). This work presents a recently completed major research project to develop an understanding of HAP emissions from gas-fired boilers and process heaters and new HAP emission factors based on field emission tests of gas-fired external combustion devices used in the petroleum industry. The effect of combustion system design and operating parameters on HAP emissions determined by both field and research tests are discussed. Data from field tests of gas-fired petroleum industry boilers and heaters generally show very low emission levels of organic HAPs. A comparison of the emission data for boilers and process heaters, including units with and without various forms of NO x emission controls, showed no significant difference in organic HAP emission characteristics due to process or burner design. This conclusion is also supported by the results of research tests with different burner designs. Based on field tests of units fired with natural gas and various petroleum industry process gases and research tests in which gas composition was intentionally varied, organic HAP emissions were not determined to be significantly affected by the gas composition. Research data indicate that elevated organic HAP emission levels are found only under extreme operating conditions (starved air or high excess air combustion) associated with poor combustion. (author)

Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo Hong; Wang, Michael; Zhang Xiliang; He Kebin; Gong Huiming; Jiang Kejun; Jin Yuefu; Shi Yaodong; Yu Xin

2012-01-01

We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model ( (http://www.feeimodel.org/)). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300 MMT of CO 2 -equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed. - Highlights: ► Fuel-cycle energy use and GHG emissions of vehicles in China are projected up to 2050. ► Various policies are evaluated with the fuel economy and environmental impacts model. ► Fuel economy standards have greatest benefit in saving energy use and GHG emissions. ► Electrification is effective. Benefit of dieselization and fuel blending is limited.

Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Holloway, T.

2010-12-01

Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

2010-01-01

China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

Dedicated natural gas vehicle with low emission

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voogd, A. de; Weide, J. van der; Konig, A.; Wegener, R.

1995-01-01

In the introduction an overview is given of international activities in the field of natural gas vehicles. The main incentives for the use of natural gas in vehicles are: emission reduction in urban areas, fuel diversification, and long term availability. Heavy duty natural gas engines are mainly

Energy market reform and greenhouse gas emission reductions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1999-01-01

The report reviews micro-economic reform in the energy market and measures the impact that energy market reform is expected to have on greenhouse gas outcomes. It indicates that reform in the electricity and gas industries is delivering what was promised, an efficient market with lower energy prices and, over the longer term, will deliver a gradually reducing rate of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy produced. It also recognises that energy market reform has removed some barriers to the entry of less greenhouse gas intense fuels. These trends will result in reduced greenhouse gas intensity in the supply of energy and significant reductions in the growth in greenhouse gas emissions compared to what may have been expected without the reforms

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane em

Request for Correction 12003 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting from the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Request for Correction by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for information in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting from the Petroleum Gas Industry that regarding methane emissions, volatile organic compounds, and hazardous air pollutants.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Tropical Regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinguelli Rosa, L.; Aurelio dos Santos, M.; Oliveira dos Santos, E.; Matvienko, B.; Sikar, E.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses emissions by power-dams in the tropics. Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical power-dams are produced underwater through biomass decomposition by bacteria. The gases produced in these dams are mainly nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane. A methodology was established for measuring greenhouse gases emitted by various power-dams in Brazil. Experimental measurements of gas emissions by dams were made to determine accurately their emissions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) gases through bubbles formed on the lake bottom by decomposing organic matter, as well as rising up the lake gradient by molecular diffusion. The main source of gas in power-dams reservoirs is the bacterial decomposition (aerobic and anaerobic) of autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter that basically produces CO2 and CH4. The types and modes of gas production and release in the tropics are reviewed

Assessing methane emission estimation methods based on atmospheric measurements from oil and gas production using LES simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Saide, P. E.; Steinhoff, D.; Kosovic, B.; Weil, J.; Smith, N.; Blewitt, D.; Delle Monache, L.

2017-12-01

There are a wide variety of methods that have been proposed and used to estimate methane emissions from oil and gas production by using air composition and meteorology observations in conjunction with dispersion models. Although there has been some verification of these methodologies using controlled releases and concurrent atmospheric measurements, it is difficult to assess the accuracy of these methods for more realistic scenarios considering factors such as terrain, emissions from multiple components within a well pad, and time-varying emissions representative of typical operations. In this work we use a large-eddy simulation (LES) to generate controlled but realistic synthetic observations, which can be used to test multiple source term estimation methods, also known as an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The LES is based on idealized simulations of the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 m horizontal grid-spacing covering an 8 km by 7 km domain with terrain representative of a region located in the Barnett shale. Well pads are setup in the domain following a realistic distribution and emissions are prescribed every second for the components of each well pad (e.g., chemical injection pump, pneumatics, compressor, tanks, and dehydrator) using a simulator driven by oil and gas production volume, composition and realistic operational conditions. The system is setup to allow assessments under different scenarios such as normal operations, during liquids unloading events, or during other prescribed operational upset events. Methane and meteorology model output are sampled following the specifications of the emission estimation methodologies and considering typical instrument uncertainties, resulting in realistic observations (see Figure 1). We will show the evaluation of several emission estimation methods including the EPA Other Test Method 33A and estimates using the EPA AERMOD regulatory model. We will also show source estimation

Improved national calculation procedures to assess energy requirements, nitrogen and VS excretions of dairy cows in the German emission model GAS-EM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dämmgen, Ulrich; Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Rösemann, Claus

2009-01-01

The calculation module for the assessment of feed intake and excretion rates of dairy cows in the German agricultural emission model GAS-EM is described in detail. The module includes the description of methane emissions from enteric fermentation as well as the assessment of volatile solids...... matter intake. The results agree well with those obtained from regression models and respective experiments. The model is able to refl ect national and regional peculiarities in dairy cow husbandry. It is an adequate tool for the establishment of emission inventories and for the construction of scenarios...

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Osamu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kainuma, Mikiko

2012-01-01

In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m 2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO 2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO 2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m 2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions. - Highlights: ► We explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world. ► Significant GHG emission reduction is required to limit radiative forcing at low level. ► We assess technology options for achieving significant GHG emission reduction. ► CCS, solar power, wind power, and biomass are the key technologies for reduction. ► Especially, CCS and biomass play a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions of European cities--modeling emissions with only one spatial and one socioeconomic variable.

Science.gov (United States)

Baur, Albert H; Lauf, Steffen; Förster, Michael; Kleinschmit, Birgit

2015-07-01

Substantive and concerted action is needed to mitigate climate change. However, international negotiations struggle to adopt ambitious legislation and to anticipate more climate-friendly developments. Thus, stronger actions are needed from other players. Cities, being greenhouse gas emission centers, play a key role in promoting the climate change mitigation movement by becoming hubs for smart and low-carbon lifestyles. In this context, a stronger linkage between greenhouse gas emissions and urban development and policy-making seems promising. Therefore, simple approaches are needed to objectively identify crucial emission drivers for deriving appropriate emission reduction strategies. In analyzing 44 European cities, the authors investigate possible socioeconomic and spatial determinants of urban greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple statistical analyses reveal that the average household size and the edge density of discontinuous dense urban fabric explain up to 86% of the total variance of greenhouse gas emissions of EU cities (when controlled for varying electricity carbon intensities). Finally, based on these findings, a multiple regression model is presented to determine greenhouse gas emissions. It is independently evaluated with ten further EU cities. The reliance on only two indicators shows that the model can be easily applied in addressing important greenhouse gas emission sources of European urbanites, when varying power generations are considered. This knowledge can help cities develop adequate climate change mitigation strategies and promote respective policies on the EU or the regional level. The results can further be used to derive first estimates of urban greenhouse gas emissions, if no other analyses are available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Top-down Constraints on Emissions: Example for Oil and Gas Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Petron, G.; Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Brewer, A.; Hardesty, R.; Banta, R. M.; Frost, G. J.; Trainer, M.; Miller, B. R.; Conley, S. A.; Kofler, J.; Newberger, T.; Higgs, J. A.; Wolter, S.; Guenther, D.; Andrews, A. E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Lang, P. M.; Montzka, S. A.; Edwards, P. M.; Dube, W. P.; Brown, S. S.; Helmig, D.; Hueber, J.; Rella, C.; Jacobson, G. A.; Wolfe, D. E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Tans, P. P.; Schnell, R. C.

2012-12-01

In many countries, human-caused emissions of the two major long lived greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, are primarily linked to the use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). Fugitive emissions of natural gas (mainly CH4) from the oil and gas exploration and production sector may also be an important contributor to natural gas life cycle/greenhouse gas footprint. Fuel use statistics have traditionally been used in combination with fuel and process specific emission factors to estimate CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-based energy systems (power plants, motor vehicles…). Fugitive emissions of CH4, in contrast, are much harder to quantify. Fugitive emission levels may vary substantially from one oil and gas producing basin to another and may not scale with common activity data, such as production numbers. In the USA, recent efforts by the industry, States and the US Environmental Protection Agency have focused on developing new bottom-up inventory methodologies to assess methane and volatile organic compounds emissions from oil and gas producing basins. The underlying assumptions behind these inventories are multiple and result de facto in large uncertainties. Independent atmospheric-based estimates of emissions provide another valuable piece of information that can be used to evaluate inventories. Over the past year, the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory has used its expertise in high quality GHG and wind measurements to evaluate regional emissions of methane from two oil and gas basins in the Rocky Mountain region. Results from these two campaigns will be discussed and compared with available inventories.

Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from waste treatment facilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mønster, Jacob

to be in-stalled in any vehicle and thereby enabling measurements wherever there were roads. The validation of the measurement method was done by releasing a controlled amount of methane and quantifying the emission using the release of tracer gas. The validation test showed that even in areas with large...... treatment plants. The PhD study reviewed and evaluated previously used methane measurement methods and found the tracer dispersion method promising. The method uses release of tracer gas and the use of mobile equipment with high analytical sensitivity, to measure the downwind plumes of methane and tracer...... ranged from 10 to 92 kg per hour and was found to change in even short timescales of a few hours. The periods with large emissions correlated with a drop in methane utilization, indicating that emissions came from the digesters tanks or gas storage/use. The measurements indicated that the main emissions...

Measurement of fugitive emissions from gas processing plants in Alberta

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chambers, A. [Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

2004-07-01

This paper presents a new gas visualization camera created to detect leaks. An outline of the device's projected entry into the oil and gas industry was provided, and included: a demonstration of Differential Absorption Light Detection and Ranging (DIAL) and leak cameras to measure and reduce fugitive emissions; a comparison of DIAL measured emissions with estimated emissions; and a review of methods to measure particulate emissions. In addition, a background of gas leak visualisation technology was presented along with an an overview of DIAL and its results from sour gas plants. The results of a survey conducted in 2003 were presented, including leaks identified and repaired as well as a follow up leak survey. An analysis of pre and post-repair hydrocarbon emissions from the Deepcut area revealed a 60 per cent reduction with savings of $140,000 as well as additional savings from reduced carbon emissions. A similar survey conducted in another plant measured emissions from condensate tanks before and after cooler installation as well as from surrounding well sites, quantifying an 80 per cent reduction in methane emissions. Tasks identified for future research concerned particulate emissions and the development of Lidar methods which can currently identify particulates, but are not yet able to quantify them. Other tasks included a complete DIAL data workup and reporting; the quantification of both methane and carbon emissions reduction at a sour gas plant; a comparison of measured emissions with methods that estimate fugitives; and a complete review of particulate measurements. tabs, figs.

The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Saikawa

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NO_x, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O₃ mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM_2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O₃ is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM_2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m⁻³ relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O₃ mixing ratios and PM_2.5 concentrations in

Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

Optimal distributed energy resources and the cost of reduced greenhouse gas emissions in a large retail shopping centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braslavsky, Julio H.; Wall, Josh R.; Reedman, Luke J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Optimal options for distributed energy resources are analysed for a shopping centre. • A multiobjective optimisation model is formulated and solved using DER-CAM. • Cost and emission trade-offs are compared in four key optimal investment scenarios. • Moderate investment in DER technologies lowers emissions by 29.6% and costs by 8.5%. • Larger investment in DER technologies lowers emissions by 72% at 47% higher costs. - Abstract: This paper presents a case study on optimal options for distributed energy resource (DER) technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a large retail shopping centre located in Sydney, Australia. Large retail shopping centres take the largest share of energy consumed by all commercial buildings, and present a strong case for adoption of DER technologies to reduce energy costs and emissions. However, the complexity of optimally designing and operating DER systems has hindered their widespread adoption in practice. This paper examines and demonstrates the value of DER in reducing the carbon footprint of the shopping centre by formulating and solving a multiobjective optimisation problem using the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) tool. An economic model of the shopping centre is developed in DER-CAM using on-site-specific demand, tariffs, and performance data for each DER technology option available. Four key optimal DER technology investment scenarios are then analysed by comparing: (1) solution trade-offs of costs and emissions, (2) the cost of reduced emissions attained in each investment scenario, and (3) investment benefits with respect to the business-as-usual scenario. The analysis shows that a moderate investment in combined cooling, heat and power (CCHP) technology alone can reduce annual energy costs by 8.5% and carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 29.6%. A larger investment in CCHP technology, in conjunction with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, can deliver

Norwegian gas sales and the impacts on European CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, E.; Boug, P.; Kverndokk, S.

2001-01-01

This paper has studied the impacts on Western European CO 2 emissions of a reduction in Norwegian gas sales. Such impacts are due to changes in energy demand, energy supply, and environmental and political regulations. The gas supply model DYNOPOLY was used to analyse the effects on Russian and Algerian gas exports of a reduction in Norwegian gas supply. The effects on the demand side and the effects of committing to CO 2 targets were analysed using the energy demand model SEEM. If Western European countries commit to their announced CO 2 emissions targets, reduced Norwegian gas sales will have no impact on emissions. The consumption of oil and coal will increase slightly, while the total energy consumption will go down. Also, a reduction in Norwegian gas sales will have only minor impacts on the CO 2 emissions from Western Europe when no emissions regulations are considered

2012 Stakeholder Workshop on Natural Gas in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

Science.gov (United States)

This page describes EPA's September 2012 stakeholder workshop on key aspects of the estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the natural gas sector in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.

Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilliestam, Johan

2014-01-01

The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets. - Highlights: • A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation. • Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks. • Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports. • Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker. • The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low

Technology Opportunities to Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

National Lab Directors, . .

2001-04-05

The rise in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial and agricultural activities has aroused international concern about the possible impacts of these emissions on climate. Greenhouse gases--mostly carbon dioxide, some methane, nitrous oxide and other trace gases--are emitted to the atmosphere, enhancing an effect in which heat reflected from the earth's surface is kept from escaping into space, as in a greenhouse. Thus, there is concern that the earth's surface temperature may rise enough to cause global climate change. Approximately 90% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources come from energy production and use, most of which are a byproduct of the combustion of fossil fuels. On a per capita basis, the United States is one of the world's largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, comprising 4% of the world's population, yet emitting 23% of the world's greenhouse gases. Emissions in the United States are increasing at around 1.2% annually, and the Energy Information Administration forecasts that emissions levels will continue to increase at this rate in the years ahead if we proceed down the business-as-usual path. President Clinton has presented a two-part challenge for the United States: reduce greenhouse gas emissions and grow the economy. Meeting the challenge will mean that in doing tomorrow's work, we must use energy more efficiently and emit less carbon for the energy expended than we do today. To accomplish these goals, President Clinton proposed on June 26, 1997, that the United States ''invest more in the technologies of the future''. In this report to Secretary of Energy Pena, 47 technology pathways are described that have significant potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The present study was completed before the December 1997 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and is intended to provide a basis to evaluate technology

Modelling combustion reactions for gas flaring and its resulting emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Saheed Ismail

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Flaring of associated petroleum gas is an age long environmental concern which remains unabated. Flaring of gas maybe a very efficient combustion process especially steam/air assisted flare and more economical than utilization in some oil fields. However, it has serious implications for the environment. This study considered different reaction types and operating conditions for gas flaring. Six combustion equations were generated using the mass balance concept with varying air and combustion efficiency. These equations were coded with a computer program using 12 natural gas samples of different chemical composition and origin to predict the pattern of emission species from gas flaring. The effect of key parameters on the emission output is also shown. CO2, CO, NO, NO2 and SO2 are the anticipated non-hydrocarbon emissions of environmental concern. Results show that the quantity and pattern of these chemical species depended on percentage excess/deficiency of stoichiometric air, natural gas type, reaction type, carbon mass content, impurities, combustion efficiency of the flare system etc. These emissions degrade the environment and human life, so knowing the emission types, pattern and flaring conditions that this study predicts is of paramount importance to governments, environmental agencies and the oil and gas industry.

Replacement policy of residential lighting optimized for cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lixi; Keoleian, Gregory A.; Saitou, Kazuhiro

2017-11-01

Accounting for 10% of the electricity consumption in the US, artificial lighting represents one of the easiest ways to cut household energy bills and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by upgrading to energy-efficient technologies such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) and light emitting diodes (LED). However, given the high initial cost and rapidly improving trajectory of solid-state lighting today, estimating the right time to switch over to LEDs from a cost, primary energy, and GHG emissions perspective is not a straightforward problem. This is an optimal replacement problem that depends on many determinants, including how often the lamp is used, the state of the initial lamp, and the trajectories of lighting technology and of electricity generation. In this paper, multiple replacement scenarios of a 60 watt-equivalent A19 lamp are analyzed and for each scenario, a few replacement policies are recommended. For example, at an average use of 3 hr day-1 (US average), it may be optimal both economically and energetically to delay the adoption of LEDs until 2020 with the use of CFLs, whereas purchasing LEDs today may be optimal in terms of GHG emissions. In contrast, incandescent and halogen lamps should be replaced immediately. Based on expected LED improvement, upgrading LED lamps before the end of their rated lifetime may provide cost and environmental savings over time by taking advantage of the higher energy efficiency of newer models.

CO and PAH emissions from engines operating on producer gas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahrenfeldt, Jesper

2005-01-01

High carbon monoxide (CO) emission from gas engines fueled by producer gas is a concerning problem in the struggle to make biomass gasification for heat and power production a success. The standing regulations concerning CO emissions from gas engine based power plants in most EU countries are so ...

Long-term energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the Swiss residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siller, Thomas; Kost, Michael; Imboden, Dieter

2007-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities to reach two long-term targets regarding energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss residential building stock: a reduction of the final energy consumption by a factor of 3 and of CO 2 emissions by a factor of 5 until 2050. A model is constructed to describe the dynamics of the energy-relevant properties of the residential building stock. Appropriate scenarios are discussed in terms of decisions made during construction or renovation of residential buildings which affect heat demand and determine the energy carriers used for heating and hot water generation. We show that both targets could be reached, although ambitious efforts are necessary. The central element of a successful strategy is to reduce the specific heat demand of existing buildings during renovation and to substitute the heating and hot water systems by less carbon intensive ones. Our results suggest that there is more flexibility to reach the emission target than the energy reduction target

Report of study group 8.1 ''methane emissions caused by the gas industry world-wide''; Rapport du groupe d'etude 8.1 ''emissions de methane causees par l'industrie du gaz sur le plan international''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Altfeld, K.

2000-07-01

This report details the work undertaken by the WOC 8 Study Group 8.1 (methane emissions) in the triennium 1997 to 2000. The objective is to identify the major methane emission sources within the natural gas chain and to estimate from that the global methane emissions caused by the natural gas industry with a reasonable accuracy. Against the background of substantial uncertainties and insufficient data, a conservative approach has been adopted. The results presented in this report are based on a commonly agreed method using reasonable emission factors, on data provided by the operators inside the natural gas industry and on reliable data from literature. The total methane emissions caused by the gas industry world-wide were some 20,000 kt in 1995. This figure neither includes the methane emissions connected with the production of crude oil nor the methane emissions connected with associated gas which occurs during oil production and is not fed into a gas grid. More than half of the methane emissions can be attributed to three countries: USA, Canada and Russia, producing more than 50 % of the world natural gas. Related to the world's natural gas net production of approx. 79,000 PJ (net calorific value) the specific methane emission is approx. 0.26 kt/PJ (0.92 g/kWh). (Assuming - as a 'worst case' scenario - that natural gas is purely methane, a specific emission factor of 0.92 g/kWh corresponds to a leakage rate of 1.3 %). (author)

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

2010-01-01

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes ...

Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 to 2030

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Winther, Morten; Nielsen, Malene

This report contains a description of models, background data and projections of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for Denmark. The emissions are projected to 2030 using a scenario combined with the expected results of a few individual policy measures. Official Danish forecasts of activity rates ...... on emission data from a considerable number of industrial plants. The projection models are based on the same structure and method as the Danish emission inventories in order to ensure consistency....

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading for the Transport Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, Kristina; Belhaj, Mohammed; Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Aahman, Markus

2006-12-01

In this study we have analysed different options to apply emissions trading for greenhouse gas emissions to the transport sector. The main focus has been on the EU transport sector and the possibility to include it in the current EU ETS in the trading period beginning in 2013. The purpose was to study how different alternatives will affect different actors. Focus has been on three sub-sectors; road transport, aviation and shipping. The railway sector has only been treated on a general level. The study includes the following three parts: 1. An economic analysis of the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions trading for the transport sector including an analysis of how the total cost for reaching an emission target will be affected by an integrated emissions trading system for the transport sector and the industry (currently included sectors) compared to separate systems for the sectors, 2. An analysis of design possibilities for the different sub-sectors. Discussion of positive and negative aspects with different choices of design parameters, such as trading entity, covered greenhouse gases, allocation of emission allowances and monitoring systems, 3. Examination of the acceptance among different actors for different options of using greenhouse gas emissions trading in the transport sector. When setting up an emissions trading scheme there are a number of design parameters that have to be analysed in order to find an appropriate system, with limited administrative and transaction costs and as small distortions as possible to competitiveness

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darwin, R.

2004-01-01

New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO2-fertilization scenarios in this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere

Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyun Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Revised emission factors for gas engines including start/stop emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielsen, Malene; Boll Illerup, J.; Birr-Petersen, K.

2008-06-15

Liberalisation of the electricity market has led to Danish gas engine plants increasingly converting to the spot and regulating power markets. In order to offer regulating power, plants need to be able to start and stop the engines at the plants quickly. The liberalisation causes a considerable change of operation practice of the engines e.g. less full load operation hours /year. The project provides an inventory determining the scale of the emissions during the start and stop sequence as well as proposals for engine modifications aimed at reducing start/stop emissions. This report includes calculation of emission factors as well as an inventory of total emissions and reduction potentials. (au)

Comparative life cycle GHG emissions from local electricity generation using heavy oil, natural gas, and MSW incineration in Macau

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Qingbin; Wang, Zhishi; Li, Jinhui

2018-01-01

Wh, respectively. The mean value for aggregated GHG emissions of the local power grid (imported electricity excluded) was 0.69kg CO2 per kWh, noticeably lower than many neighboring countries and regions, such as mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan. Our scenario analysis indicated that the development of natural gas......, for changing GHG emissions, and should be allocated to the highest priority for GHG reduction. All the obtained results could be useful for decisions makers, with providing a robust support for assessing the environmental performance and drawing up the appropriate improvement planning of power systems....

Experimental and life cycle assessment analysis of gas emission from mechanically–biologically pretreated waste in a landfill with energy recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Di Maria, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaria@unipg.it; Sordi, Alessio; Micale, Caterina

2013-11-15

Highlights: • Bio-methane landfill emissions from different period (0, 4, 8, 16 weeks) MTB waste have been evaluated. • Electrical energy recoverable from landfill gas ranges from 11 to about 90 kW h/tonne. • Correlation between oxygen uptake, energy recovery and anaerobic gas production shows R{sup 2} ranging from 0.78 to 0.98. • LCA demonstrate that global impact related to gaseous emissions achieve minimum for 4 week of MBT. - Abstract: The global gaseous emissions produced by landfilling the Mechanically Sorted Organic Fraction (MSOF) with different weeks of Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) was evaluated for an existing waste management system. One MBT facility and a landfill with internal combustion engines fuelled by the landfill gas for electrical energy production operate in the waste management system considered. An experimental apparatus was used to simulate 0, 4, 8 and 16 weeks of aerobic stabilization and the consequent biogas potential (Nl/kg) of a large sample of MSOF withdrawn from the full-scale MBT. Stabilization achieved by the waste was evaluated by dynamic oxygen uptake and fermentation tests. Good correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}), ranging from 0.7668 to 0.9772, were found between oxygen uptake, fermentation and anaerobic test values. On the basis of the results of several anaerobic tests, the methane production rate k (year{sup −1}) was evaluated. k ranged from 0.436 to 0.308 year{sup −1} and the bio-methane potential from 37 to 12 N m{sup 3}/tonne, respectively, for the MSOF with 0 and 16 weeks of treatment. Energy recovery from landfill gas ranged from about 11 to 90 kW h per tonne of disposed MSOF depending on the different scenario investigated. Life cycle analysis showed that the scenario with 0 weeks of pre-treatment has the highest weighted global impact even if opposite results were obtained with respect to the single impact criteria. MSOF pre-treatment periods longer than 4 weeks showed rather negligible variation

Experimental and life cycle assessment analysis of gas emission from mechanically–biologically pretreated waste in a landfill with energy recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Maria, Francesco; Sordi, Alessio; Micale, Caterina

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Bio-methane landfill emissions from different period (0, 4, 8, 16 weeks) MTB waste have been evaluated. • Electrical energy recoverable from landfill gas ranges from 11 to about 90 kW h/tonne. • Correlation between oxygen uptake, energy recovery and anaerobic gas production shows R 2 ranging from 0.78 to 0.98. • LCA demonstrate that global impact related to gaseous emissions achieve minimum for 4 week of MBT. - Abstract: The global gaseous emissions produced by landfilling the Mechanically Sorted Organic Fraction (MSOF) with different weeks of Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) was evaluated for an existing waste management system. One MBT facility and a landfill with internal combustion engines fuelled by the landfill gas for electrical energy production operate in the waste management system considered. An experimental apparatus was used to simulate 0, 4, 8 and 16 weeks of aerobic stabilization and the consequent biogas potential (Nl/kg) of a large sample of MSOF withdrawn from the full-scale MBT. Stabilization achieved by the waste was evaluated by dynamic oxygen uptake and fermentation tests. Good correlation coefficients (R 2 ), ranging from 0.7668 to 0.9772, were found between oxygen uptake, fermentation and anaerobic test values. On the basis of the results of several anaerobic tests, the methane production rate k (year −1 ) was evaluated. k ranged from 0.436 to 0.308 year −1 and the bio-methane potential from 37 to 12 N m 3 /tonne, respectively, for the MSOF with 0 and 16 weeks of treatment. Energy recovery from landfill gas ranged from about 11 to 90 kW h per tonne of disposed MSOF depending on the different scenario investigated. Life cycle analysis showed that the scenario with 0 weeks of pre-treatment has the highest weighted global impact even if opposite results were obtained with respect to the single impact criteria. MSOF pre-treatment periods longer than 4 weeks showed rather negligible variation in the global impact of

Atmospheric emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, B.G.S.

1994-01-01

The results are presented of a study set up to determine the nature and levels of atmospheric emissions resulting from United Kingdom oil and gas exploration and production activities. The study was commissioned by the UK Offshore Operators Association. Emissions by the upstream oil and gas industry of common pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide, and ozone depletion chemicals were shown in each case to be less than 1% of total UK emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions in the industry arise mainly from production operations with a small but significant contribution from onshore activities. Carbon dioxide is the major component followed in descending order by nitrogen oxides, methane and volatile organic compounds. In 1991, these emissions formed 3.2%, 4.6%, 2.9% and 2.8% of the UK totals respectively; overall this represented only about 3% of UK global warming emissions. The evidence of this study illustrates that the industry, which produces 67% of the UK's primary energy, is successfully managing its operations in an environmentally responsible way. (3 figures, 3 tables) (UK)

Predicting emissions from oil and gas operations in the Uinta Basin, Utah.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkey, Jonathan; Kelly, Kerry; Jaramillo, Isabel Cristina; Spinti, Jennifer; Ring, Terry; Hogue, Michael; Pasqualini, Donatella

2016-05-01

In this study, emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin are predicted (with uncertainty estimates) from 2015-2019 using a Monte-Carlo model of (a) drilling and production activity, and (b) emission factors. Cross-validation tests against actual drilling and production data from 2010-2014 show that the model can accurately predict both types of activities, returning median results that are within 5% of actual values for drilling, 0.1% for oil production, and 4% for gas production. A variety of one-time (drilling) and ongoing (oil and gas production) emission factors for greenhouse gases, methane, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are applied to the predicted oil and gas operations. Based on the range of emission factor values reported in the literature, emissions from well completions are the most significant source of emissions, followed by gas transmission and production. We estimate that the annual average VOC emissions rate for the oil and gas industry over the 2010-2015 time period was 44.2E+06 (mean) ± 12.8E+06 (standard deviation) kg VOCs per year (with all applicable emissions reductions). On the same basis, over the 2015-2019 period annual average VOC emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop 45% to 24.2E+06 ± 3.43E+06 kg VOCs per year, due to decreases in drilling activity and tighter emission standards. This study improves upon previous methods for estimating emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin by tracking one-time and ongoing emission events on a well-by-well basis. The proposed method has proven highly accurate at predicting drilling and production activity and includes uncertainty estimates to describe the range of potential emissions inventory outcomes. If similar input data are available in other oil and gas producing regions, then the method developed here could be applied to those regions as well.

Analysis of carbon dioxide emission of gas fuelled cogeneration plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordin, Adzuieen; Amin, M; Majid, A

2013-01-01

Gas turbines are widely used for power generation. In cogeneration system, the gas turbine generates electricity and the exhaust heat from the gas turbine is used to generate steam or chilled water. Besides enhancing the efficiency of the system, the process assists in reducing the emission of CO 2 to the environment. This study analyzes the amount of CO 2 emission by Universiti Teknologi Petronas gas fuelled cogeneration system using energy balance equations. The results indicate that the cogeneration system reduces the CO 2 emission to the environment by 60%. This finding could encourage the power plant owners to install heat recovery systems to their respective plants

Analysis of carbon dioxide emission of gas fuelled cogeneration plant

Science.gov (United States)

Nordin, Adzuieen; Amin, M.; Majid, A.

2013-12-01

Gas turbines are widely used for power generation. In cogeneration system, the gas turbine generates electricity and the exhaust heat from the gas turbine is used to generate steam or chilled water. Besides enhancing the efficiency of the system, the process assists in reducing the emission of CO2 to the environment. This study analyzes the amount of CO2 emission by Universiti Teknologi Petronas gas fuelled cogeneration system using energy balance equations. The results indicate that the cogeneration system reduces the CO2 emission to the environment by 60%. This finding could encourage the power plant owners to install heat recovery systems to their respective plants.

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions of European cities — Modeling emissions with only one spatial and one socioeconomic variable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baur, Albert H.; Lauf, Steffen; Förster, Michael; Kleinschmit, Birgit

2015-01-01

Substantive and concerted action is needed to mitigate climate change. However, international negotiations struggle to adopt ambitious legislation and to anticipate more climate-friendly developments. Thus, stronger actions are needed from other players. Cities, being greenhouse gas emission centers, play a key role in promoting the climate change mitigation movement by becoming hubs for smart and low-carbon lifestyles. In this context, a stronger linkage between greenhouse gas emissions and urban development and policy-making seems promising. Therefore, simple approaches are needed to objectively identify crucial emission drivers for deriving appropriate emission reduction strategies. In analyzing 44 European cities, the authors investigate possible socioeconomic and spatial determinants of urban greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple statistical analyses reveal that the average household size and the edge density of discontinuous dense urban fabric explain up to 86% of the total variance of greenhouse gas emissions of EU cities (when controlled for varying electricity carbon intensities). Finally, based on these findings, a multiple regression model is presented to determine greenhouse gas emissions. It is independently evaluated with ten further EU cities. The reliance on only two indicators shows that the model can be easily applied in addressing important greenhouse gas emission sources of European urbanites, when varying power generations are considered. This knowledge can help cities develop adequate climate change mitigation strategies and promote respective policies on the EU or the regional level. The results can further be used to derive first estimates of urban greenhouse gas emissions, if no other analyses are available. - Highlights: • Two variables determine urban GHG emissions in Europe, assuming equal power generation. • Household size, inner-urban compactness and power generation drive urban GHG emissions. • Climate policies should consider

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions of European cities — Modeling emissions with only one spatial and one socioeconomic variable

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baur, Albert H., E-mail: Albert.H.Baur@campus.tu-berlin.de; Lauf, Steffen; Förster, Michael; Kleinschmit, Birgit

2015-07-01

Substantive and concerted action is needed to mitigate climate change. However, international negotiations struggle to adopt ambitious legislation and to anticipate more climate-friendly developments. Thus, stronger actions are needed from other players. Cities, being greenhouse gas emission centers, play a key role in promoting the climate change mitigation movement by becoming hubs for smart and low-carbon lifestyles. In this context, a stronger linkage between greenhouse gas emissions and urban development and policy-making seems promising. Therefore, simple approaches are needed to objectively identify crucial emission drivers for deriving appropriate emission reduction strategies. In analyzing 44 European cities, the authors investigate possible socioeconomic and spatial determinants of urban greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple statistical analyses reveal that the average household size and the edge density of discontinuous dense urban fabric explain up to 86% of the total variance of greenhouse gas emissions of EU cities (when controlled for varying electricity carbon intensities). Finally, based on these findings, a multiple regression model is presented to determine greenhouse gas emissions. It is independently evaluated with ten further EU cities. The reliance on only two indicators shows that the model can be easily applied in addressing important greenhouse gas emission sources of European urbanites, when varying power generations are considered. This knowledge can help cities develop adequate climate change mitigation strategies and promote respective policies on the EU or the regional level. The results can further be used to derive first estimates of urban greenhouse gas emissions, if no other analyses are available. - Highlights: • Two variables determine urban GHG emissions in Europe, assuming equal power generation. • Household size, inner-urban compactness and power generation drive urban GHG emissions. • Climate policies should consider

Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

1999-01-01

The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

Improving the accuracy of vehicle emissions profiles for urban transportation greenhouse gas and air pollution inventories.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Janet L; Chester, Mikhail V; Ahn, Soyoung; Fraser, Andrew M

2015-01-06

Metropolitan greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories can better account for the variability in vehicle movement, fleet composition, and infrastructure that exists within and between regions, to develop more accurate information for environmental goals. With emerging access to high quality data, new methods are needed for informing transportation emissions assessment practitioners of the relevant vehicle and infrastructure characteristics that should be prioritized in modeling to improve the accuracy of inventories. The sensitivity of light and heavy-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) and conventional air pollutant (CAP) emissions to speed, weight, age, and roadway gradient are examined with second-by-second velocity profiles on freeway and arterial roads under free-flow and congestion scenarios. By creating upper and lower bounds for each factor, the potential variability which could exist in transportation emissions assessments is estimated. When comparing the effects of changes in these characteristics across U.S. cities against average characteristics of the U.S. fleet and infrastructure, significant variability in emissions is found to exist. GHGs from light-duty vehicles could vary by -2%-11% and CAP by -47%-228% when compared to the baseline. For heavy-duty vehicles, the variability is -21%-55% and -32%-174%, respectively. The results show that cities should more aggressively pursue the integration of emerging big data into regional transportation emissions modeling, and the integration of these data is likely to impact GHG and CAP inventories and how aggressively policies should be implemented to meet reductions. A web-tool is developed to aide cities in improving emissions uncertainty.

OPIC Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis Details

Data.gov (United States)

Overseas Private Investment Corporation — Summary project inventory with independent analysis to quantify the greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions directly attributable to projects to which the Overseas Private...

Modeling Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Enteric Fermentation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kebreab, E.; Tedeschi, L.; Dijkstra, J.; Ellis, J.L.; Bannink, A.; France, J.

2016-01-01

Livestock directly contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly through methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. For cost and practicality reasons, quantification of GHG has been through development of various types of mathematical models. This chapter addresses the utility and

Does the Swedish consumer's choice of food influence greenhouse gas emissions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallen, Anna; Brandt, Nils; Wennersten, Ronald

2004-01-01

Consumer's choice of food can influence the environment. In Sweden, in common with many other countries, consumers need to be given information so they can make environmentally informed shopping choices. However, what is the most advantageous dietary choice to lower greenhouse emissions? This study investigates the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food production for food consumed in Sweden annually. Specifically, this study compares greenhouse gas emissions associated with a nutritionally and environmentally sustainable diet with the average consumption of food in Sweden 1999. The study concludes that the change in energy use and greenhouse gas emission associated with this change of diet is negligible. Lowering greenhouse gas emissions by changing food production processes results in more profound changes than teaching consumers to make environmentally correct choices. There is a basic need for a reduction or a replacement of the use of fossil fuels to produce and distribute our food in order to reach any significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases. Swedish agricultural policy does not provide ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Sweden therefore there is an immediate need to design policy instruments with the primary aim of reducing the greenhouse effect

Assessment of biodiesel scenarios for Midwest freight transport emission reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

There are trade-offs when attempting to reduce both greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutants for freight transport, as the control : strategies are not necessarily complimentary. While emission controls can remove ozone precursors and particulate f...

Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Fadel, M.; Zeinati, M.; Ghaddar, N.; Mezher, T.

2001-01-01

Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon, being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly, an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29% to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17%, respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical, economic, environmental, and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose, theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (author)

Greenhouse gas emission measurement and economic analysis of Iran natural gas fired power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahsavari Alavijeh, H.; Kiyoumarsioskouei, A.; Asheri, M.H.; Naemi, S.; Shahsavari Alavije, H.; Basirat Tabrizi, H.

2013-01-01

This study attempts to examine the natural gas fired power plants in Iran. The required data from natural gas fired power plants were gathered during 2008. The characteristics of thirty two gas turbine power plants and twenty steam power plants have been measured. Their emission factor values were then compared with the standards of Energy Protection Agency, Euro Union and World Bank. Emission factors of gas turbine and steam power plants show that gas turbine power plants have a better performance than steam power plants. For economic analysis, fuel consumption and environmental damages caused by the emitted pollutants are considered as cost functions; and electricity sales revenue are taken as benefit functions. All of these functions have been obtained according to the capacity factor. Total revenue functions show that gas turbine and steam power plants are economically efficient at 98.15% and 90.89% of capacity factor, respectively; this indicates that long operating years of power plants leads to reduction of optimum capacity factor. The stated method could be implemented to assess the economic status of a country’s power plants where as efficient capacity factor close to one means that power plant works in much better condition. - Highlights: • CO 2 and NO x emissions of Iran natural gas fired power plants have been studied. • CO 2 and NO x emission factors are compared with EPA, EU and World Bank standards. • Costs and benefit as economic functions are obtained according to capacity factor. • Maximum economic profit is obtained for gas turbine and steam power plants. • Investment in CO 2 reduction is recommended instead of investment in NO x reduction

Estimation of methane emission from California natural gas industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Jeff; Hicks, Travis C; Drake, Brian; Chan, Tat Fu

2015-07-01

Energy generation and consumption are the main contributors to greenhouse gases emissions in California. Natural gas is one of the primary sources of energy in California. A study was recently conducted to develop current, reliable, and California-specific source emission factors (EFs) that could be used to establish a more accurate methane emission inventory for the California natural gas industry. Twenty-five natural gas facilities were surveyed; the surveyed equipment included wellheads (172), separators (131), dehydrators (17), piping segments (145), compressors (66), pneumatic devices (374), metering and regulating (M&R) stations (19), hatches (34), pumps (2), and customer meters (12). In total, 92,157 components were screened, including flanges (10,101), manual valves (10,765), open-ended lines (384), pressure relief valves (358), regulators (930), seals (146), threaded connections (57,061), and welded connections (12,274). Screening values (SVs) were measured using portable monitoring instruments, and Hi-Flow samplers were then used to quantify fugitive emission rates. For a given SV range, the measured leak rates might span several orders of magnitude. The correlation equations between the leak rates and SVs were derived. All the component leakage rate histograms appeared to have the same trend, with the majority of leakage ratesGas Research Institute (EPA/GRI) study. Twenty-five natural gas facilities in California were surveyed to develop current, reliable, and California-specific source emission factors (EFs) for the natural gas industry. Screening values were measured by using portable monitoring instruments, and Hi-Flow samplers were then used to quantify fugitive emission rates. The component-level average EFs derived in this study are often smaller than the corresponding ones in the 1996 EPA/GRI study. The smaller EF values from this study might be partially attributable to the employment of the leak detection and repair program by most, if not all

Unregulated greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from current technology heavy-duty vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiruvengadam, Arvind; Besch, Marc; Carder, Daniel; Oshinuga, Adewale; Pasek, Randall; Hogo, Henry; Gautam, Mridul

2016-11-01

The study presents the measurement of carbonyl, BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene), ammonia, elemental/organic carbon (EC/OC), and greenhouse gas emissions from modern heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles. Vehicles from different vocations that included goods movement, refuse trucks, and transit buses were tested on driving cycles representative of their duty cycle. The natural gas vehicle technologies included the stoichiometric engine platform equipped with a three-way catalyst and a diesel-like dual-fuel high-pressure direct-injection technology equipped with a diesel particulate filter (DPF) and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR). The diesel vehicles were equipped with a DPF and SCR. Results of the study show that the BTEX emissions were below detection limits for both diesel and natural gas vehicles, while carbonyl emissions were observed during cold start and low-temperature operations of the natural gas vehicles. Ammonia emissions of about 1 g/mile were observed from the stoichiometric natural gas vehicles equipped with TWC over all the driving cycles. The tailpipe GWP of the stoichiometric natural gas goods movement application was 7% lower than DPF and SCR equipped diesel. In the case of a refuse truck application the stoichiometric natural gas engine exhibited 22% lower GWP than a diesel vehicle. Tailpipe methane emissions contribute to less than 6% of the total GHG emissions. Modern heavy-duty diesel and natural gas engines are equipped with multiple after-treatment systems and complex control strategies aimed at meeting both the performance standards for the end user and meeting stringent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions regulation. Compared to older technology diesel and natural gas engines, modern engines and after-treatment technology have reduced unregulated emissions to levels close to detection limits. However, brief periods of inefficiencies related to low exhaust thermal energy have been shown to

A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

2016-11-01

Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

The EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woerdman, Edwin; Woerdman, Edwin; Roggenkamp, Martha; Holwerda, Marijn

2015-01-01

This chapter explains how greenhouse gas emissions trading works, provides the essentials of the Directive on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and summarizes the main implementation problems of the EU ETS. In addition, a law and economics approach is used to discuss the dilemmas

Australia’s Consumption-based Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levitt, Clinton J.; Saaby, Morten; Sørensen, Anders

2017-01-01

We use data from the World Input-Output Database in a multiregional input–output model to analyse Australian consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions for the years 1995 to 2009. We find that the emission content of Australian macroeconomic activity has changed over the 15-year period. Consumption...

ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING SCENARIO OF CARBON EMISSION IN SUGAR INDUSTRY BASED ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHAIRUL SALEH

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This research is conducted to assess and create some scenarios in the sugar industry, which aimed to decrease the production of CO2 emissions in PT Madubaru. In this research, the assessment of CO2 emission is based on the energy consumption used in supply chain activities during the production period in 2014. The problem faced in this research is the used of energy for transportation and production in a complex condition. Thus, simulation modeling based on system dynamic has been proposed to build the assessment model and create a scenario. The result shows that PT Madubaru produces around 174,246,500 kg in 171 days or during the production period in 2014. It means that the amount of CO2 emission in a day is around 1,018,985 kg. Two scenarios haves been developeded in order to reduce CO2 emissions. First, changing the old type boiler with the new one by increasing 155% fuel efficiency. This scenario is proven to reduce the amount of CO2 by 44% or become 98,800,400 kg. Second, eliminating the use of lorry which reduce the 0.2% of CO2 emission or equal to 387,600 kg.

Wellbeing impacts of city policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hiscock, Rosemary; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Braubach, Matthias

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate change, city authorities are developing policies in areas such as transportation, housing and energy use, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to their effects on greenhouse gas emissions, these policies are likely to have consequences for the wellbeing...... and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, we discuss the extent to which the links proposed in the conceptual model are supported...

Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sexton, Steven; Eyer, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Natural gas transportation fuels are credited in prior studies with greenhouse gas emissions savings relative to petroleum-based fuels and relative to the total emissions of biofuels. These analyses, however, overlook a source of potentially large indirect emissions from natural gas transportation fuels, namely the emissions from incremental coal-fired generation caused by price-induced substitutions away from natural-gas-fired electricity generation. Because coal-fired generation emits substantially more greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants than natural-gas-fired generation, this indirect coal-use change effect diminishes potential emissions savings from natural gas transportation fuels. Estimates from a parameterized multi-market model suggest the indirect coal-use change effect rivals in magnitude the indirect land-use change effect of biofuels and renders natural gas fuels as carbon intensive as petroleum fuels. - Highlights: •Natural gas used in transport causes indirect emissions in the electricity sector. •These emissions result from increased coal use in electricity generation. •They rival in magnitude indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions of biofuels. •Natural gas fuels are estimated to be as carbon intensive as the petroleum fuels. •Policy ignores indirect emissions from natural gas.

Effects of nitrogen fertilizer application on greenhouse gas emissions and economics of corn production.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

2008-08-15

Nitrogen fertilizer plays an important role in corn cultivation in terms of both economic and environmental aspects. Nitrogen fertilizer positively affects corn yield and the soil organic carbon level, but it also has negative environmental effects through nitrogen-related emissions from soil (e.g., N20, NOx, NO3(-) leaching, etc.). Effects of nitrogen fertilizer on greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain are investigated via life cycle assessment. Ecoefficiency analysis is also used to determine an economically and environmentally optimal nitrogen application rate (NAR). The ecoefficiency index in this study is defined as the ratio of economic return due to nitrogen fertilizer to the greenhouse gas emissions of corn cultivation. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain decrease as NAR increases at a lower NAR until a minimum greenhouse gas emission level is reached because corn yield and soil organic carbon level increase with NAR. Further increasing NAR after a minimum greenhouse gas emission level raises greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain. Increased greenhouse gas emissions of corn grain due to nitrous oxide emissions from soil are much higher than reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of corn grain due to corn yield and changes in soil organic carbon levels at a higher NAR. Thus, there exists an environmentally optimal NAR in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. The trends of the ecoefficiency index are similar to those of economic return to nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain. Therefore, an appropriate NAR could enhance profitability as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain.

Methane Emissions from Natural Gas in the Urban Region of Boston, Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

McKain, K.; Down, A.; Raciti, S. M.; Budney, J.; Hutyra, L.; Floerchinger, C. R.; Herndon, S. C.; Zahniser, M. S.; Nehrkorn, T.; Jackson, R. B.; Phillips, N. G.; Wofsy, S. C.

2014-12-01

Methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain must be quantified to assess environmental impacts of natural gas and to develop emission reduction strategies. We report natural gas emission rates for one year in the urban region of Boston, MA, using an atmospheric measurement and modeling framework. Continuous methane observations from four stations are combined with a high-resolution transport model to quantify the regional average emission rate, 20.6 ± 1.7 (95 % CI) g CH4 m-2 yr-1. Simultaneous observations of atmospheric ethane, compared with the ethane to methane ratio in pipeline gas, demonstrate that natural gas accounted for 58 - 100 % of methane emissions, depending on season. Using government statistics and geospatial data on energy consumption, we estimate the fractional loss rate to the atmosphere from all downstream components of the natural gas system, including transmission, distribution, and end-use, was 2.9 ± 0.3 % in the Boston urban region, compared to 1.1 % inferred by the Massachusetts greenhouse gas inventory.

Scenarios in decision-making. An application to CO2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Social Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

1995-12-01

The usefulness of scenarios for decision-makers is analyzed. First, a theoretical introduction to the scenario methodology is presented. Next, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. For each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are presented, as well as estimations of the future energy system. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that these scenarios provide interesting policy options for decision-makers. A large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 5 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs.

Environmental impacts of food trade via resource use and greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalin, Carole; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Agriculture will need to significantly intensify in the next decades to continue providing essential nutritive food to a growing global population. However, it can have harmful environmental impacts, due to the use of natural and synthetic resources and the emission of greenhouse gases, which alter the water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and threaten the fertility, health and biodiversity of landscapes. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of resource productivity, farming practices, climate, and land and water availability, the environmental impact of producing food is highly dependent on its origin. For this reason, food trade can either increase or reduce the overall environmental impacts of agriculture, depending on whether or not the impact is greater in the exporting region. Here, we review current scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of food trade, focusing on water and land use, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In the case of water, these impacts are mainly beneficial. However, in the cases of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, this conclusion is not as clear. Overall, there is an urgent need for a more comprehensive, integrated approach to estimate the global impacts of food trade on the environment. Second, research is needed to improve the evaluation of some key aspects of the relative value of each resource depending on the local and regional biophysical and socio–economic context. Finally, to enhance the impact of such evaluations and their applicability in decision-making, scenario analyses and accounting of key issues like deforestation and groundwater exhaustion will be required. (letter)

Environmental impacts of food trade via resource use and greenhouse gas emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Dalin, Carole; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2016-03-01

Agriculture will need to significantly intensify in the next decades to continue providing essential nutritive food to a growing global population. However, it can have harmful environmental impacts, due to the use of natural and synthetic resources and the emission of greenhouse gases, which alter the water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and threaten the fertility, health and biodiversity of landscapes. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of resource productivity, farming practices, climate, and land and water availability, the environmental impact of producing food is highly dependent on its origin. For this reason, food trade can either increase or reduce the overall environmental impacts of agriculture, depending on whether or not the impact is greater in the exporting region. Here, we review current scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of food trade, focusing on water and land use, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In the case of water, these impacts are mainly beneficial. However, in the cases of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, this conclusion is not as clear. Overall, there is an urgent need for a more comprehensive, integrated approach to estimate the global impacts of food trade on the environment. Second, research is needed to improve the evaluation of some key aspects of the relative value of each resource depending on the local and regional biophysical and socio-economic context. Finally, to enhance the impact of such evaluations and their applicability in decision-making, scenario analyses and accounting of key issues like deforestation and groundwater exhaustion will be required.

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.