WorldWideScience

Sample records for foreign exchange rates

  1. Exchange Rate and the PRC Foreign Trade

    Izotov D. A.

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The stages of exchange rate regulation and foreign trade systems reforming in PRC during the period 1978-2008 are examined. A quantitative assessment of PRC foreign trade parameters reactions to the currency rate dynamics on the national and regional levels is made. Also the import and export impact of potential exchange rate changes is estimated

  2. The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984), we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  3. Sparseness and Roughness of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Vandewalle, N.; Ausloos, M.

    An accurate multiaffine analysis of 23 foreign currency exchange rates has been performed. The roughness exponent H1 which characterizes the excursion of the exchange rate has been numerically measured. The degree of intermittency C1 has been also estimated. In the (H1,C1) phase diagram, the currency exchange rates are dispersed in a wide region around the Brownian motion value (H1=0.5,C1=0) and have a significantly intermittent component (C1≠0).

  4. The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  5. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  6. Multivariable nonlinear analysis of foreign exchange rates

    Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

    2003-05-01

    We analyze the multivariable time series of foreign exchange rates. These are price movements that have often been analyzed, and dealing time intervals and spreads between bid and ask prices. Considering dealing time intervals as event timing such as neurons’ firings, we use raster plots (RPs) and peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTHs) which are popular methods in the field of neurophysiology. Introducing special processings to obtaining RPs and PSTHs time histograms for analyzing exchange rates time series, we discover that there exists dynamical interaction among three variables. We also find that adopting multivariables leads to improvements of prediction accuracy.

  7. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    2010-07-01

    ... Exchange rates for foreign currencies. When determining the rates of pension or parents' DIC or the amounts... parents' DIC. (1) Because exchange rates for foreign currencies cannot be determined in advance, rates of... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exchange rates for...

  8. Triangular arbitrage as an interaction among foreign exchange rates

    Aiba, Yukihiro; Hatano, Naomichi; Takayasu, Hideki; Marumo, Kouhei; Shimizu, Tokiko

    2002-07-01

    We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular arbitrage transactions as an interaction among three rates. The model explains the actual data of the multiple foreign exchange rates well.

  9. VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN TRADE

    Oleg STRATULAT

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Moderate fluctuation of the exchange rate, basically in its floating regime is considered normality. Meanwhile,excessive volatility of the exchange rate is an issue for many countries. Its elimination is directed to foreign trade, which, through essential exports, followed by significant currency inflows, contribute to the stability of exchange rates. Unfortunately, Moldova’s foreign trade has become a key factor in maintaining the stability of foreign exchange.

  10. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  11. Intervention analysis of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate | Mosugu ...

    Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... impact of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate using classical multiple regression model under ... A useful approach is to test the significant change between the long-run mean effect ...

  12. Impulse Response of the Exchange Rate Volatility to a Foreign Exchange Intervention Shock

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses Lin's technique (1997) to report on the impulse response function analysis that traces the dynamics of exchange rate volatility from innovations in Japanese foreign exchange intervention. Using a multivariate GARCH model, we employed a volatility impulse response function based on Lin (1997) to detect the impulse response of exchange rate volatility on a one-unit foreign exchange intervention shock. The main findings of t his paper are as follows: (1) a foreign exchange inter...

  13. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de [Institute of Physics, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília DF 70910-900 (Brazil); Fonseca, Regina C.B. da [Department of Mathematics, Instituto Federal de Goiás, Goiânia GO 74055-110 (Brazil); Gleria, Iram, E-mail: iram@fis.ufal.br [Institute of Physics, Federal University of Alagoas, Brazil, Maceió AL 57072-900 (Brazil)

    2013-10-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  14. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Figueiredo, Annibal; de Castro, Marcio T.; da Fonseca, Regina C. B.; Gleria, Iram

    2013-10-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers-Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  15. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Fonseca, Regina C.B. da; Gleria, Iram

    2013-01-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  16. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  17. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    Lily, Jaratin; Kogid, Mori; Mulok, Dullah; Thien Sang, Lim; Asid, Rozilee

    2014-01-01

    The inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) are important for a country's economic development, but the world market for FDI has become more competitive. This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI) relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. By employing ARDL bounds test approach, the empirical results show the existence of significant long-run cointegration between excha...

  18. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  19. Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

    Gligorić Mirjana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested.

  20. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  1. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  2. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    2010-01-01

    ... sheet interest rate and foreign exchange rate contracts: a. Interest Rate Contracts i. Single currency... Contracts i. Cross-currency interest rate swaps. ii. Forward foreign exchange rate contracts. iii. Currency... contracts traded on exchanges that require daily payment of variation margins are excluded from the minimum...

  3. Dynamical analyses of the time series for three foreign exchange rates

    Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong; Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Kyungsik

    2012-05-01

    In this study, we investigate the multifractal properties of three foreign exchange rates (USD-KRW, USD-JPY, and EUR-USD) that are quoted with different economic scales. We estimate and analyze both the generalized Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation function in three foreign exchange rates. The USD-KRW is shown to have the strongest of the Hurst exponents when compared with the other two foreign exchange rates. In particular, the autocorrelation function of the USD-KRW has the largest memory behavior among three foreign exchange rates. It also exhibits a long-memory property in the first quarter, more than those in the other quarters.

  4. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  5. EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

    Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2, F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time in Nigeria.  The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay

  6. East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

    2009-07-16

    At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

  7. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  8. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  9. The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposure in Non-Financial Companies

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  10. Political Risk and Foreign Exchange Rates: an Efficient-Market Approach

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Bruno Doutriaux de la Rianderie

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country. Our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country's investment climate and causes its currency's exchange rate to vary. It appears, however, that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events. The evidence presented is also consisted with the hypo...

  11. Optimal Foreign Exchange Rate Intervention in Lévy Markets

    Masimba Aspinas Mutakaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an exchange rate problem in Lévy markets, where the Central Bank has to intervene. We assume that, in the absence of control, the exchange rate evolves according to Brownian motion with a jump component. The Central Bank is allowed to intervene in order to keep the exchange rate as close as possible to a prespecified target value. The interventions by the Central Bank are associated with costs. We present the situation as an impulse control problem, where the objective of the bank is to minimize the intervention costs. In particular, the paper extends the model by Huang, 2009, to incorporate a jump component. We formulate and prove an optimal verification theorem for the impulse control. We then propose an impulse control and construct a value function and then verify that they solve the quasivariational inequalities. Our results suggest that if the expected number of jumps is high the Central Bank will intervene more frequently and with large intervention amounts hence the intervention costs will be high.

  12. Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: the view from the tails

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime. The analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution

  13. Some Tests of Random Walk Hypothesis for Bulgarian Foreign Exchange Rates

    Nikolai Gueorguiev

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to check if the exchange rate in newly emerged, relatively thin foreign exchange markets, follows a random walk pattern. The findings of the current study cast doubts on random walk presence in Bulgarian exchange rates against major international currencies. It turns out that the series of daily returns are stationary but correlated and therefore can be modelled better by higher-order ARIMA processes than by random walk.

  14. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  15. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    2008-10-07

    Oct 7, 2008 ... volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows is important for a developing ... and inflation uncertainty were computed using the GARCH model and the results showed that volatility .... of currency and capital accounts, coupled with stable macroeconomic environment ..... 14.67561 Akaike info criterion.

  16. Correlation analysis of the Korean stock market: Revisited to consider the influence of foreign exchange rate

    Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

    2018-02-01

    We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.

  17. The Dynamics of Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Management in Different Enterprises

    Khaldoun M. Al-Qaisi

    2012-01-01

    Foreign currency exchange management is very crucial in firms with foreign deals. The objective of this research was to study the management practices in Jordanian firms of foreign exchange management and its risk on these firms. A questionnaire was used to collect data using a stratified random sample. The results show that the firms interested with foreign currency exchange management as it forms more that 50% of its deals. Most of firms indicated that they have a policy for foreign exchang...

  18. FINANCIAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ON BANK EXTERNAL TRADING OPERATIONS

    Ignat Papazov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The term "currency" has different meanings but is usually defined as any means of payment that is not in local currency units. The ratio between the foreign currency and local currency units results into exchange rate. When arranging payment transactions abroad, local entities - natural and legal persons must exchange their national currency in advance for the currency of the country in which they are due or in another currency commonly accepted as an international payment. Under this regime, the national currency is quoted in relation to another currency, that is exchange rate.

  19. Time-series analysis of multiple foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in multiple foreign exchange rates. The time-dependent pattern entropy of 7 foreign exchange rates (AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and NZD/USD) was found to be high in the long period after the Lehman shock, and be low in the long period after Mar 2012. We compared the correlation matrix between exchange rates in periods of high and low of the time-dependent pattern entropy.

  20. Forecasting Foreign Currency Exchange Rates for Air Force Budgeting

    2015-03-26

    recommends using the settlement price of the average option contract in October to decrease the median APE by 3.475% and avoiding a $36 million opportunity...29  Table 8 OECD Long Term Interest Rates, Percent Per Annum Example ........................ 30  Table 9 Global Insight 1 Year, 2...Budget Process The federal government receives tariffs, taxes , fees, and other collections throughout the fiscal year (1 October – 30 September). The

  1. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...

  2. A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export

    Leila Khalighi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this research was studying the impact of exchange rate on date export as one of the most important and greatest foreign currency income earned horticultural products in agriculture sector in Iran. Selected time period in this study was chosen between 1991 and 2011. For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS method has used to estimate the relationships between the value of date export and the variables taken from stationary tests. Library research method has used for the analysis. In this regard, required data have collected from various scientific and research resources. The results indicated that, exchange rate is a crucial factor for dates export and also for exporters. In addition, other factors specially government policies have been placed in export model. In this field, short-term outsourcing foreign policy has decreased the export value. Results also showed that, applying exchange rate unification policy without an appropriate exchange rate to encourage exporters has negative impact on dates export. Therefore, by applying exchange rate stabilization policy, according to inflation in the country, the potential exporters’ income has reduced and production costs have increased alternately.

  3. Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

    White, H; Racine, J

    2001-01-01

    We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

  4. The importance of corporate foreign debt as an alternative to currency derivatives in actual management of exchange rate exposures

    Aabo, Tom

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency ("foreign debt") is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relati...

  5. The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

    Rehman, Nasir; Shashiashvili, Malkhaz

    2009-01-01

    The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process.In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities.Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium.The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods

  6. Time-series analysis of foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2013-08-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in foreign exchange rates, in particular, the dollar-yen rate. The time-dependent pattern entropy of the dollar-yen rate was found to be high in the following periods: before and after the turning points of the yen from strong to weak or from weak to strong, and the period after the Lehman shock.

  7. Implications Of Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development And Real Exchange Rate For Economic Growth In Cameroon

    Victalice Ngimanang Achamoh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI, financial development and real exchange rate (RER on economic growth in Cameroon using Cameroon’s annual time series data spanning the period 1977 - 2010. To address these objectives, residual based Engle-Granger test, the OLS based Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL bound testing and maximum likelihood based Johansen cointegration techniques are employed. Results of Unit roots tests show that all the series possessed unit roots at level or first difference form. The ARDL model and VECM results reveal that the RER has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while FDI and Financial Development relate positively to economic growth. These findings have implications for stimulating economic growth by increasing efficiency of the financial sector in allocating credit to the private sector and preventing real exchange rate appreciation in the shortrun.

  8. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  9. Intertemporal Risk-Return Trade-off in Foreign Exchange Rates

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the intertemporal risk-return trade-off of foreign ex-change (FX) rates for ten currencies quoted against the USD. For each currency,we use three risk measures simultaneously that pertain to that currency; its re-alized volatility, its realized skewness, and its value-at-risk. We apply monthlyFX excess returns and monthly FX risk measures calculated from daily ob-servations. We find that there is a positive and signi…cant contemporaneousrisk-return trade-off for most currencies...

  10. Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

    Dong-Eun Rhee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

  11. Autocorrelation as a source of truncated Lévy flights in foreign exchange rates

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Gleria, Iram; Matsushita, Raul; Da Silva, Sergio

    2003-05-01

    We suggest that the ultraslow speed of convergence associated with truncated Lévy flights (Phys. Rev. Lett. 73 (1994) 2946) may well be explained by autocorrelations in data. We show how a particular type of autocorrelation generates power laws consistent with a truncated Lévy flight. Stock exchanges have been suggested to be modeled by a truncated Lévy flight (Nature 376 (1995) 46; Physica A 297 (2001) 509; Econom. Bull. 7 (2002) 1). Here foreign exchange rate data are taken instead. Scaling power laws in the “probability of return to the origin” are shown to emerge for most currencies. A novel approach to measure how distant a process is from a Gaussian regime is presented.

  12. On the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process in the foreign exchange rates

    Fonseca, Regina C.B. da, E-mail: regina@quimica-industrial.com [Department of Mathematics, Instituto Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás 74055-110 (Brazil); International Center for Condensed Matter Physics, Instituto de Física, Universidade de Brasília, Caixa Postal 04455, 70919-970, Brasília, Distrito Federal (Brazil); Matsushita, Raul Y. [Department of Statistics, Universidade de Brasília, 70919-970, Brasília, Distrito Federal (Brazil); Castro, Márcio T. de; Figueiredo, Annibal [International Center for Condensed Matter Physics, Instituto de Física, Universidade de Brasília, Caixa Postal 04455, 70919-970, Brasília, Distrito Federal (Brazil)

    2015-10-02

    Since Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions cannot be fulfilled by financial data, the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process was introduced as a candidate model to describe time series of financial returns [1]. It is an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process in which these assumptions are replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. We employ the OU and THOU processes to analyze daily foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. We confirm that the OU process does not fit the data, while in most cases the first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process. However, there are some exceptions in which the data do not follow linearity or time-homogeneity assumptions. - Highlights: • Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. • We revisit the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process. • We employ the THOU process to analyze foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. • The first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process.

  13. THE ACCOUNTING EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VARIATION ON REMUNERATION OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL.

    Diego Zacarias dos Santos

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to elucidate the main points of foreign investments, and the accounting administration of the Brazilian Corporate Laws. The remittances of profits and the payment of dividends for foreign investors who invested their financial resources in Brazil have increased in the last few years, and this is due to the stable economic times that the country is experiencing. In part, the favorable economic scenario in Brazil is due to the fact of the increased flow of investments in the country, which it has proved to be properly structured to withstand global financial crises like the one in 2008, which originated in the United States.Considering also that the investor wants to invest in stable economies where there are attractive interest rates, the country became a great place to invest. However, as a basic principle for capital market, it must be taken into consideration that exchange rate variation can be a negative or a positive aspect for it. In the end of this work, among other ideas, we conclude that to maximize the investment value for shareholders, it is necessary an accurate assessment of investment option, and of level of influence of the exchange variation for the investment return.

  14. On the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process in the foreign exchange rates

    Fonseca, Regina C.B. da; Matsushita, Raul Y.; Castro, Márcio T. de; Figueiredo, Annibal

    2015-01-01

    Since Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions cannot be fulfilled by financial data, the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process was introduced as a candidate model to describe time series of financial returns [1]. It is an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process in which these assumptions are replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. We employ the OU and THOU processes to analyze daily foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. We confirm that the OU process does not fit the data, while in most cases the first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process. However, there are some exceptions in which the data do not follow linearity or time-homogeneity assumptions. - Highlights: • Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. • We revisit the time-homogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (THOU) process. • We employ the THOU process to analyze foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. • The first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process

  15. Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates Between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate

    Young Wook Han

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

  16. Timing Foreign Exchange Markets

    Samuel W. Malone

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available To improve short-horizon exchange rate forecasts, we employ foreign exchange market risk factors as fundamentals, and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP models to handle non-linear, time-varying relationships between these fundamentals and exchange rates. Forecasts from the BTGP model conditional on the carry and dollar factors dominate random walk forecasts on accuracy and economic criteria in the Meese-Rogoff setting. Superior market timing ability for large moves, more than directional accuracy, drives the BTGP’s success. We explain how, through a model averaging Monte Carlo scheme, the BTGP is able to simultaneously exploit smoothness and rough breaks in between-variable dynamics. Either feature in isolation is unable to consistently outperform benchmarks throughout the full span of time in our forecasting exercises. Trading strategies based on ex ante BTGP forecasts deliver the highest out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns for the median currency, as well as for both predictable, traded risk factors.

  17. On the time-homogeneous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in the foreign exchange rates

    da Fonseca, Regina C. B.; Matsushita, Raul Y.; de Castro, Márcio T.; Figueiredo, Annibal

    2015-10-01

    Since Gaussianity and stationarity assumptions cannot be fulfilled by financial data, the time-homogeneous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (THOU) process was introduced as a candidate model to describe time series of financial returns [1]. It is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in which these assumptions are replaced by linearity and time-homogeneity. We employ the OU and THOU processes to analyze daily foreign exchange rates against the US dollar. We confirm that the OU process does not fit the data, while in most cases the first four cumulants patterns from data can be described by the THOU process. However, there are some exceptions in which the data do not follow linearity or time-homogeneity assumptions.

  18. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series

    Pal, Mayukha; Madhusudana Rao, P.; Manimaran, P.

    2014-12-01

    We apply the recently developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation behavior and fractal nature between two non-stationary time series. We analyze the daily return price of gold, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, foreign exchange rate data, over a period of 18 years. The cross correlation has been measured from the Hurst scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum quantitatively. From the results, the existence of multifractal cross-correlation between all of these time series is found. We also found that the cross correlation between gold and oil prices possess uncorrelated behavior and the remaining bivariate time series possess persistent behavior. It was observed for five bivariate series that the cross-correlation exponents are less than the calculated average generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) for q0 and for one bivariate series the cross-correlation exponent is greater than GHE for all q values.

  19. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkey’s Agricultural Foreign Trade

    Güngör Karakaş

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER and its volatility (REERV on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade was investigated. 25importantcountries in agricultural trade of Turkey and 1990-2012 periods were examined, and panel data analysis was used in this research. IGARCH model was applied to obtain for the REERV. Influence of the REER and REERV on Turkey's agricultural trade was analyzed whit FMOLS model both individual country and groups panel. According to the results of FMOLS model; It was determined that Turkey agricultural import (7.61% and export (2.24% were increased when the REER was risen about 1%. The agricultural import was decreased 18.83% in case the REERV was increased 1%. On the other hand, when the REERV was increased around 1%, there was no significantly relationship between agricultural export and REERV. As a result, it can be stated that REER and REERV were caused an imbalance on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade. Agricultural producers and industrialists are often adversely affected by the REERV. For these reasons, it is important to take protective measures for them.

  20. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    Huizinga, H.P.; Schaling, E.; van der Windt, P.C.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate

  1. Estimating Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy

    Abdul Hakim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Accumulating foreign exchange reserves, despite their cost and their impacts on other macroeconomics variables, provides some benefits. This paper models such foreign exchange reserves. To measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves for import, it uses total reserves-to-import ratio (TRM. The chosen independent variables are gross domestic product growth, exchange rates, opportunity cost, and a dummy variable separating the pre and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. To estimate the risky TRM value, this paper uses conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR, with the help of Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR model to estimate the conditional volatility. The results suggest that all independent variables significantly influence TRM. They also suggest that the short and long run volatilities are evident, with the additional evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive past shocks. The VaR, which are calculated assuming both normal and t distributions, provide similar results, namely violations in 2005 and 2008.

  2. Latin American foreign exchange intervention - Updated

    Da Silva, Sergio; Nunes, Mauricio

    2007-01-01

    We examine Latin American foreign exchange intervention in a framework where the exchange rate regime is endogenous and there exists an inefficient, equilibrium foreign exchange intervention bias. The model suggests that greater central bank independence is associated with lesser intervention in the foreign exchange market, and also with leaning-against-the-wind intervention. Both results are confirmed by data from 13 Latin American countries.

  3. How did China's foreign exchange reform affect the efficiency of foreign exchange market?

    Ning, Ye; Wang, Yiming; Su, Chi-wei

    2017-10-01

    This study compares the market efficiency of China's onshore and offshore foreign exchange markets before and after the foreign exchange reform on August 11, 2015. We use the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the onshore and offshore RMB/USD spot exchange rate series as basis. We then find that the onshore foreign exchange market before the reform has the lowest market efficiency, which increased after the reform. The offshore foreign exchange market before the reform has the highest market efficiency, which dropped after the reform. This finding implies the increased efficiency of the onshore foreign exchange market and the loss of efficiency in the offshore foreign exchange market. We also find that the offshore foreign exchange market is more efficient than the onshore market and that the gap shrank after the reform. Changes in intervention of the People's Bank of China since the reform is a possible explanation for the changes in the efficiency of the foreign exchange market.

  4. Performance of technical indicators in forecasting high-frequency foreign exchange rates

    Václav Mastný

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with technical analysis and its forecasting ability in the intradaily foreign exchange market. The objective of this study is to investigate whether technical indicators are able to provide prediction superior to „buy and hold“ strategy. Each indicator is tested with series of parameters in time series of different frequency (5, 15, 30, 60 min. The profitability of each indicator is examined in simple trading modell.

  5. The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational ...

    The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations. ... African Journal of Finance and Management ... We also find that keiretsu multinationals are more exposed to exchange rate risk that non-keiretsu firms.

  6. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Alex Ehimare OMANKHANLEN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study is on the effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth. Its main objective is to find the effect of inflation and exchange rate and the bidirectional influences between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. A thirty year period was studied. A linear regression analysis was used on the thirty year data to determine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, FDI inflows and economic growth. The study reveals that FDI follow economic growth occasioned by trade openness which saw the entry of some major companies especially the telecommunication companies, while Inflation has no effect on FDI. However exchange rate has effect on FDI.

  7. China’s Foreign Trade: The Response to Changing the Exchange Rate

    Izotov D. A.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on official data of Chinese and international statistics assessment is given of the impact of the yuan revaluation on the parameters of China’s foreign trade by country (including in terms of crisis tendencies in the global economy. A regression analysis made it possible to obtain quantitative assessments of the responses of China’s foreign trade parameters by country, depending on different yuan revaluation (10% and 50% to the U.S. dollar. It is found that the yuan revaluation leads to reduction in the growth rates of both China’s exports and imports, with the responses by countries being different

  8. The nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange risk management research

    Zhang Yi

    2012-01-01

    To manage and control foreign exchange rate risk under the floating exchange rate system, historical simulation method of VaR model has been utilized to evaluate the nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange risk and the risk causation has been analyzed. Finally, the measure of enhancing the nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange rate risk management level has been exposed for sharing. (author)

  9. Exchange rate policy

    Plačkov Slađana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small oscillations of exchange rate certainly affect the loss of confidence in the currency (Serbian dinar, CSD and because of the shallow market even the smallest change in the supply and demand leads to a shift in exchange rate and brings uncertainty. Some economists suggest that the course should be linked to inflation and thus ensure predictable and stable exchange rates. Real exchange rate or slightly depressed exchange rate will encourage the competitiveness of exporters and perhaps ensure the development of new production lines which, in terms of overvalued exchange rate, had no economic justification. Fixed exchange rate will bring lower interest rates, lower risk and lower business uncertainty (uncertainty avoidance, but Serbia will also reduce foreign exchange reserves by following this trend. On the other hand, a completely free exchange rate, would lead to a (real fall of Serbian currency, which in a certain period would lead to a significant increase in exports, but the consequences for businessmen and citizens with loans pegged to the euro exchange rate, would be disastrous. We will pay special attention to the depreciation of the exchange rate, as it is generally favorable to the export competitiveness of Serbia and, on the other hand, it leads to an increase in debt servicing costs of the government as well as of the private sector. Oscillations of the dinar exchange rate, appreciation and depreciation, sometimes have disastrous consequences on the economy, investors, imports and exports. In subsequent work, we will observe the movement of the dinar exchange rate in Serbia, in the time interval 2009-2012, in order to strike a balance and maintain economic equilibrium. A movement of foreign currencies against the local currency is controlled in the foreign exchange market, so in case economic interests require, The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, on the basis of arbitrary criteria, can intervene in the market.

  10. The Story of Foreign Trade and Exchange.

    Fan, Cedric

    This comic-style booklet is one of a series of educational booklets published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The booklet uses everyday language and lively illustrations to explain the benefits of international trade; the effects of tariffs and quotas; the significance of foreign exchange rates; how the foreign exchange market facilities…

  11. The Banks Rating Analysis The Differences Between The Regional Development Banks And Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks In Indonesia

    Dr. Irwan Ch

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the bank rating in terms of differences the financial performance between the Regional Development Banks and Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks. It is consist of capital adequacy asset quality profitability Return On Asset ROA Return on Equity ROE Net Interest Margin NIM and Liquidity Loan to Deposit Ratio. The fulfillment of capital adequacy and asset quality of the bank groups did not differed significantly while in terms of profitability and liquidity there are significant differences. The earning difference is more likely due to the Regional Development Banks sources of funds for the implementation of the Local Government Cash Holder function as the Provincial Government and District City. The difference of liquidity are showed by the performance of Regional Development Banks and the Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks in lendingfinancing whereas the two groups of banks on average are still relatively low in lending.

  12. Foreign Exchange Exposures of Korean Firms

    Sungbin Cho

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We measure foreign exchange exposures as sensitivity of firm's value to FX premium in the CAPM plus FX premium model, and try to find determinants of the exposures; using data of non-financial companies listed in the Korea Exchange from the year 2007 to 2008. Main findings are as follows. If Korean won depreciates, only a small number of firms is benefitted while majority of firms are harmed to the contrary of common knowledge. As a firm's export increases, the foreign exchange exposure increases up to a certain level and after that it declines. And, smaller firms of negative foreign exchange exposures are more sensitive to foreign exchange changes. These suggest heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange rates on industries and firms.

  13. Selected aspects of modelling of foreign exchange rates with neural networks

    Václav Mastný

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with forecasting of the high-frequency foreign exchange market with neural networks. The objective is to investigate some aspects of modelling with neural networks (impact of topology, size of training set and time horizon of the forecast on the performance of the network. The data used for the purpose of this paper contain 15-minute time series of US dollar against other major currencies, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro. The results show, that performance of the network in terms of correct directorial change is negatively influenced by increasing number of hidden neurons and decreasing size of training set. The performance of the network is influenced by sampling frequency.

  14. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Bangladesh Perspective

    Md Zahangir Alam

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is about foreign exchangereserves of Bangladesh. The mainpurpose of this study is to the influence of exchange rates on foreign exchangereserves to the Bangladesh context.  Both the primary and secondary data has been used inthis study. The primary data has been collected through a structuredquestionnaire from 50 respondents. The secondary data, namely Bangladeshforeign exchange reserves (FER, Bangladesh current account balance (CAB,Bangladesh capital andfinancial account balance (CFAB, and BDT/USD exchange rates (ER.  This study covers yearly data from July 01,1996 to June 30, 2005 and quarterly data from July 01, 2005 to June 30, 2012. Findingsof this study shows that out of the selected 16 factors affecting foreignexchange reserves, exchange rates occupy the first position, weighted averagescore (WAS being 4.56. Foreign exchange reserves (FER and current accountbalance (CAB have increased by 502.9087% and 1451.218%,whereas capital and financial account (CFAB has decreased by -649.024% on June30, 2012 compared to June 30, 1997. The influence of other factors heldconstant, as ER changes by 285.6894 units due to one unit change in FER, onaverage in the same direction which represents that ER has positive effect on theFER and this relationship is statistically significant.  62.1526 percentof the variation in FER is explained by ER. The outcomes of Breusch-Godfrey test (LM test, ARCHtest, and the Normality test are that there is a serial correlation among residuals, the variance of residuals is notconstant, and the residuals are not normally distributed.

  15. Foreign Exchange Markets in Russia: Understanding the Reforms

    Linda S. Goldberg

    1993-01-01

    This paper analyzes and interprets the changes that took place in Russia's exchange rate system during 1992. The multiple exchange rate regime that existed in Russia prior to July 3, 1992, created strong incentives for exporters to refrain from repatriating foreign exchange earnings, induced both importers and exporters to participate in unofficial markets for foreign exchange, and encouraged international barter transactions. Efforts to manage the exchange rate through heavy foreign exchange...

  16. Triangular arbitrage in the foreign exchange market

    Aiba, Yukihiro; Hatano, Naomichi

    2004-12-01

    We first review our previous work, showing what is the triangular arbitrage transaction and how to quantify the triangular arbitrage opportunity. Next we explain that the correlation of the foreign exchange rates can appear without actual triangular arbitrage transaction.

  17. Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    Quader, Syed Manzur

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many developing countries having a history of high inflation, unfavorable balance of payment situation and a high level of foreign currencies denominated debt, have switched or are in the process of switching to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before to prevent financial crises and macroeconomic disturbances. This paper is designed to find out the reasons behind Bangla...

  18. Efficiency Tests in Foreign Exchange Market

    Yi Hsien Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is applying filter rules to examine the efficiency of foreign exchange. This paper uses three strategies of filter rules (buy long, sell short, buy long and sell short strategies to test the performance of the transaction for EUR, JPY, GBP. The findings show that people will obtain more return by taking buy long/ sell short strategies of filter rules without considering transaction cost. However, the transaction of these three foreign exchange rate (EUR, JPY, GBP will be more efficient by considering transaction cost. The results imply the foreign exchange market is efficient for the EUR, JPY and GBP.

  19. Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence

    Jacob A. Frenkel; Michael L. Mussa

    1980-01-01

    Since the move to generalized floating in1973, exchange rates between major currencies have displayed large fluctuations. This turbulence of foreign exchange rates is an important concern of government policy and its explanation is a challenge for theories of foreign exchange market behavior. In Section I of this paper, we document the extent of turbulence in foreign exchange markets by examining (i) the magnitude of short-run variations in exchange rates relative to other measures of economi...

  20. Assessing Drawdown-at-Risk in Brazilian Real Foreign Exchange Rates

    Vinicius Ratton Brandi

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of the stochastic behavior of financial series has become widespread over the literature. There is empirical and theoretical evidence that the total stock price change over a long period is usually concentrated in the a few hectic runs of trading days. The drawdown is a random variable which provides information on alternative characteristics of market behavior during these periods. In this work, we use distributions from extreme value theory to model the severity of drawdowns and drawups. We illustrate using nine currency exchange rates and gold.

  1. Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis

    Iti Vyas

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  makes  an  attempt  to  empirically  examine  the  causal  nexus  between  stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short  run  and  long  run  dynamic  interaction  among  the  above  mentioned  variables  for  the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth  of  demand  for  money,  in  turn,  affects  interest  rate.  Interest  rate  is  more  affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration  test  conirms  that  there  does  not  exist  any  long  run  equilibrium  relationship between stock return and exchange rate return ";} // -->activate javascript

  2. Foreign Exchange Risk in International Transactions

    Florentina-Olivia Balu

    2007-03-01

    In this article we will focus on forward and futures contracts for managing foreign exchange risk. A forward is a contract to buy or sell currency at an agreed upon exchange rate at a specific date in the future. Futures are similar to forwards except that they’re traded on exchanges which specify settlement dates. Also we make some recommendations related to the foreign exchange risk-management practices that are useful for companies involved in international trade and for financial institutions interested in providing hedging products to these companies.

  3. Strong Dollar, Weak Dollar: Foreign Exchange Rates and the U.S. Economy.

    Schilling, Tim

    Many generalizations sound simple enough--for example, "strong is good, weak is bad"--but they can be confusing when talking about money. This booklet explores how the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies affect each other and how their interaction affects the individual and the economy. The booklet contains the following sections:…

  4. Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    2012-01-01

    We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of ...... and are closely related to global risk aversion, the business cycle, and traditional exchange rate fundamentals.......We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure...... of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals a noticeable tradeoff between matching depreciation rates and accuracy in pricing bonds. Risk premiums implied by our global affine model generate unbiased predictions for currency excess returns...

  5. A Model for Trading the Foreign Exchange Market

    PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

    inflation rates, etc. have significant impacts on the exchange rate fluctuation. Existing foreign exchange ... Keywords: FOREX, marcov chain, model, neural network, trading robot. Introduction .... Support Vector Machine (SVM). Regression ...

  6. Exchange rates.

    Mills, Bev

    2003-09-01

    IN MAY this year, I was lucky enough to go to Larissa in northern Greece as part of Hope Exchange 2003, an annual study tour organised by the European Union's hospital committee and administered by the Institute of Healthcare Management (IHM).

  7. Can Exchange Rates Be Predicted?

    Siriwutiset, Trin

    2007-01-01

    Foreign exchange rates produce significant impacts on both the macroeconomic and microeconomic scale. Countries� government and multinational companies have been seeking ways to stabilize the exchange rates for a few decades. However, there is no perfect consensus on methods to control and stabilize the exchange rates. In fact, there are several occasions in history where turbulence movements caused crisis in the economies. There are several factors that are identified by economis...

  8. EFFICIENCY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS: A DEVELOPING COUNTRY PERSPECTIVE

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe

    2004-01-01

    This study tests weak and semi-strong form efficiency of the foreign exchange market in Sri Lanka using six bilateral foreign exchange rates during the recent float. Weak-form efficiency is examined using unit root tests while semi-strong form efficiency is tested using co- integration and Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. Results indicate that the Sri Lankan foreign exchange market is consistent with the weak -form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, the r...

  9. The Research of Foreign Exchange Exposures in Taiwan

    Chen, Yi Chen

    2006-01-01

    The research will be mainly focused on the relationship between the stock returns and the fluctuation of foreign exchange rate exposure in Taiwan listed corporations. Due to the environmental limitations and in sufficient resources, if Taiwan inclines to develop international trade, the exchange market plays an important role in the advances of Taiwan's economy. Therefore, the fluctuations of foreign exchange rate must have a substantially impact on the profitability of industries in Taiwan.

  10. Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Really Matter? Theoretical Aspects, Literature Review and Applied Proposal

    Isabel Cristina Ruiz

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-examines the role of exchange rates as determinant of FDI. It extends the analysis to include the issue of how exchange rates determine the decision of invest in one country depending on whether the firm is deciding to invest on the country to service the local market or to invest on the country in order to re-export. This paper offers a broad literature review of the state of the empirical research in order to draw conclusions of the real importance of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI. Details of FDI current behavior in Latin American are described and I propose a model of FDI to be applied for these countries. Data sources are given.

  11. Estimation of time-dependent Hurst exponents with variational smoothing and application to forecasting foreign exchange rates

    Garcin, Matthieu

    2017-10-01

    Hurst exponents depict the long memory of a time series. For human-dependent phenomena, as in finance, this feature may vary in the time. It justifies modelling dynamics by multifractional Brownian motions, which are consistent with time-dependent Hurst exponents. We improve the existing literature on estimating time-dependent Hurst exponents by proposing a smooth estimate obtained by variational calculus. This method is very general and not restricted to the sole Hurst framework. It is globally more accurate and easier than other existing non-parametric estimation techniques. Besides, in the field of Hurst exponents, it makes it possible to make forecasts based on the estimated multifractional Brownian motion. The application to high-frequency foreign exchange markets (GBP, CHF, SEK, USD, CAD, AUD, JPY, CNY and SGD, all against EUR) shows significantly good forecasts. When the Hurst exponent is higher than 0.5, what depicts a long-memory feature, the accuracy is higher.

  12. Foreign Exchange Risk in International Transactions

    Florentina-Olivia Balu

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Every international business is affected by the ever-changing value of the currencies implied in contracts. While many of us consider this unpredictability a nuisance, the volatility of currencies around the world can mean the difference between success and failure for many exporters/importers. Exchange rates between one currency and another can change dramatically in a short period of time, leaving the unprepared business exposed to potentially crippling losses. The efficient management of this risk is essential for the survival of a company and any business that is exposed to such a risk should ensure that it is fully prepared to manage it. Old standbys and recent breakthroughs in the area of financial risk management can remove much of the risk from currency rate movements. The range of such products is huge, with increasingly sophisticated techniques constantly being added. Among the most modern methods for managing exchange risk there are four major classes of derivative products like: forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Beyond the four main types of risk management instruments, there are a number of other products including "swaptions" (options on swaps; avenging options; yield curve swaps; futures on spreads; and options on portfolios. Sophisticated mathematical tools and high-speed computers are needed to calculate the price of these instruments and to determine their overall effect on the company. In this article we will focus on forward and futures contracts for managing foreign exchange risk. A forward is a contract to buy or sell currency at an agreed upon exchange rate at a specific date in the future. Futures are similar to forwards except that they're traded on exchanges which specify settlement dates. Also we make some recommendations related to the foreign exchange risk-management practices that are useful for companies involved in international trade and for financial institutions interested in providing hedging products to

  13. Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics

    Eatzaz Ahmad; Saima Ahmed Ali

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in Pakistan. The estimated model contains sufficient built-in dynamics to trace the pattern and speed of adjustment in the two variables in response to temporary or permanent shocks. The two domestic shocks considered in the paper are monetary and real shocks, while the three external shocks considered are import price, export price and foreign exchange reserves shocks. The study finds that the imp...

  14. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  15. Corporate foreign exchange speculation and integrated risk management

    Aabo, Tom; Hansen, Marianna Andryeyeva; Pantzalis, Christos

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how non-finance departmental involvement in the management of exchange rate risks impacts the extent of foreign exchange speculation in non-financial firms. Design/methodology/approach – We survey non-financial firms in a small open economy...... (Denmark) to investigate the extent of foreign exchange speculation and how it is related to the degree of non-finance departmental involvement in the management of exchange rate risks. We employ binary and ordered probit regression analysis. Findings – We find a positive link between 1) the extent...... to which other departments than the finance department is involved in the management of exchange rate risks and 2) the extent to which the firm is likely to speculate – whether in the form of selective hedging or active speculation – on the foreign exchange market. Practical implications – Our findings...

  16. Phase correlation of foreign exchange time series

    Wu, Ming-Chya

    2007-03-01

    Correlation of foreign exchange rates in currency markets is investigated based on the empirical data of USD/DEM and USD/JPY exchange rates for a period from February 1 1986 to December 31 1996. The return of exchange time series is first decomposed into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by the empirical mode decomposition method. The instantaneous phases of the resultant IMFs calculated by the Hilbert transform are then used to characterize the behaviors of pricing transmissions, and the correlation is probed by measuring the phase differences between two IMFs in the same order. From the distribution of phase differences, our results show explicitly that the correlations are stronger in daily time scale than in longer time scales. The demonstration for the correlations in periods of 1986-1989 and 1990-1993 indicates two exchange rates in the former period were more correlated than in the latter period. The result is consistent with the observations from the cross-correlation calculation.

  17. Cointegration and Causality Test Among Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange

    Haryono Subiyakto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.

  18. Exchange rate policy and devaluation in Malawi:

    Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mazunda, John

    2013-01-01

    This study demonstrates why devaluation was ultimately necessary in Malawi and also what its eventual impact might be in terms of prices, income distribution, and domestic production. Our approach is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economywide impacts of foreign exchange shortages in Malawi under two alternative exchange rate regimes. The foreign exchange shortages are modeled by simulating the effect of actual shocks, including tobacco price declines and r...

  19. Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets

    Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

    2007-08-01

    We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during two periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004 in order to study the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets around the market crisis. We found that on average, the ApEn values for European and North American foreign exchange markets are larger than those for African and Asian ones except Japan. We also found that the ApEn for Asian markets increased significantly after the Asian currency crisis. Our results suggest that the markets with a larger liquidity such as European and North American foreign exchange markets have a higher market efficiency than those with a smaller liquidity such as the African and Asian markets except Japan.

  20. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  1. Foreign Exchange and Library Collections in Nigeria.

    Obiagwu, M. C.

    1987-01-01

    This discussion of the difficulties involved in acquiring materials for academic libraries in Nigeria uses statistics at one university to demonstrate the drop in foreign exchange based orders. Alternatives to overseas purchasing, including local purchasing, gifts and exchanges, and resource sharing programs, are also discussed. (CLB)

  2. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  3. MULTIFRACTAL STRUCTURE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Cn#259;pun#351;an Rn#259;zvan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that empirical data coming from financial markets, like stock market indices, commodities, interest rates, traded volumes and foreign exchange rates have a multifractal structure. Multifractals were introduced in the field of economics to surpass the shortcomings of classical models like the fractional Brownian motion or GARCH processes. In this paper we investigate the multifractal behavior of Central and Eastern European foreign exchange rates, namely the Czech koruna, Croatian kuna, Hungarian forint, Polish zlot, Romanian leu and Russian rouble with respect to euro from January 13, 2000 to February 29, 2012. The dynamics of exchange rates is of interest for investors and traders, monetary and fiscal authorities, economic agents or policy makers. The exchange rate movements affect the international balance of payments, trade flows, and allocation of the resources in national and international economy. The empirical results from the multifractal detrending fluctuation analysis algorithm show that the six exchange rate series analysed display significant multifractality. Moreover, generating shuffled and surrogate time series, we analyze the sources of multifractality, long-range correlations and heavy-tailed distributions, and we find that this multifractal behavior can be mainly attributed to the latter. Finally, we propose a foreign exchange market inefficiency ranking by considering the multifractality degree as a measure of inefficiency. The regulators, through policy instruments, aim to improve the informational inefficiency of the markets, to reduce the associated risks and to ensure economic stabilization. Evaluation of the degree of information efficiency of foreign exchange markets, for Central and Eastern Europe countries, is important to assess to what extent these countries are prepared for the transition towards fully monetary integration. The weak form efficiency implies that the past exchange rates cannot help to

  4. Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model NGBM(1, 1)

    Chen, Chun-I.; Chen, Hong Long; Chen, Shuo-Pei

    2008-08-01

    The traditional Grey Model is easy to understand and simple to calculate, with satisfactory accuracy, but it is also lack of flexibility to adjust the model to acquire higher forecasting precision. This research studies feasibility and effectiveness of a novel Grey model together with the concept of the Bernoulli differential equation in ordinary differential equation. In this research, the author names this newly proposed model as Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM). The NGBM is nonlinear differential equation with power index n. By controlling n, the curvature of the solution curve could be adjusted to fit the result of one time accumulated generating operation (1-AGO) of raw data. One extreme case from Grey system textbook is studied by NGBM, and two published articles are chosen for practical tests of NGBM. The results prove the novel NGBM is feasible and efficient. Finally, NGBM is used to forecast 2005 foreign exchange rates of twelve Taiwan major trading partners, including Taiwan.

  5. The tail index of exchange rate returns

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); M. Schafgans (Marcia); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical distribution of foreign exchange rates there is now consensus that exchange rate yields are fat-tailed. Three problems, however, persist: (1) Which class of distribution functions is most appropriate? (2) Are the parameters of the distribution invariant

  6. EFFICIENCY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS: A DEVELOPING COUNTRY PERSPECTIVE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study tests weak and semi-strong form efficiency of the foreign exchange market in Sri Lanka during the recent float using six bilateral exchange rates. Weak-form efficiency is examined using unit root tests while semi-strong form efficiency is tested using co-integration, Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. Results indicate that the Sri Lankan foreign exchange market is consistent with the weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH. However, the results provide evidence against the semi-strong version of the EMH. These results have important implications for government policy makers and participants in the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka.

  7. What Drives Bank Lending in Domestic and Foreign Currency Loans in a Small Open Transition Economy with Fixed Exchange Rate? The Case of Macedonia

    Jane Bogoev

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates two different bank loan supply functions and their determinants according to the currency of bank loans in the Republic of Macedonia. There is robust statistical evidence in favour of the existence of a bank lending channel through foreign currency loans and the foreign reference interest rate. This suggests that the impact of domestic monetary policy over the bank lending channel is limited. The most significant bank-specific characteristic for the foreign currency lo...

  8. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Sang-Yong Joo; Chae-Shick Chung; Young-Woo Lee

    1999-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the ma...

  9. Foreign exchange transaction exposure of enterprises in Serbia

    Bogićević Jasmina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises involved in international business face transaction exposure to foreign exchange risk. This type of exposure occurs when an enterprise trades, borrows, or lеnds in foreign currency. Transaction exposure has a direct effect on an enterprise’s financial position and profitability. It is one of the three forms of exposure to exchange rate fluctuations, the other two being translation exposure and operating exposure. The aim of this paper is to assess the transaction exposure of enterprises in Serbia operating internationally. In addition to identifying and measuring transaction exposure, this paper explores the practical importance that enterprises in Serbia attach to management of this type of foreign exchange risk. We do not find significant differences between domestic and foreign enterprises in their choice of the type of foreign exchange risk exposure to manage. Although transaction exposure is the most managed type of foreign exchange risk, research has shown that, compared to foreign businesses, Serbian enterprises do not use sufficient protective measures to minimize the negative impact of this type of exposure on their cash flows and profitability. We expected that there would be a statistically significant dependence between the volume of enterprises’ foreign currency transactions and the level of applied transaction exposure management practices. However, the results of our research, based on a sample of enterprises in Serbia operating internationally, show that transaction exposure management practices can be influenced by factors other than the level of an enterprise’s foreign currency transactions, such as the enterprise’s country of origin.

  10. Measurement of Foreign Exchange Exposure on the Turkish Private Banks’ Stock Prices

    Serpil Canbas; Murat Doganlar; Yildirim B.Onal

    2002-01-01

    All performance criteria of the banks are affected by the exchange rate fluctuations through foreign currency transactions and operations. However, exchange rate fluctuations -even without such activities can influence the banks through their affect on foreign competition, foreign loan demand and other banking conditions. Exchange rate exposure is classified as operation, transaction, and accounting exposures. Most of the studies, which measure these exposures, focused on the affect of the ex...

  11. Real exchange rate misalignments

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.; Valladares, Frederico Estrella Carneiro

    2003-01-01

    This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autor...

  12. Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

    Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

    2000-03-01

    Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

  13. Modeling foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia

    Poghosyan, T.; Kočenda, E.; Zemčík, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2008), s. 41-61 ISSN 1540-496X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : foreign exchange risk premium * Armenia * affine term structure models Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2008

  14. Modeling foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia

    Poghosyan, Tigran; Kočenda, Evžen; Zemčík, P.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2008), s. 41-61 ISSN 1540-496X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk premium * Armenia * affine term structure models Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2008

  15. 12 CFR 614.4900 - Foreign exchange.

    2010-01-01

    ... with relationship to the customer's financial capability to bear the financial risks assumed. The bank..., where such transactions or positions normally reduce risks in the conduct and management of..., liabilities, and foreign exchange contracts. (3) Outstanding contracts with individual customers and banks. (4...

  16. 77 FR 62177 - Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions

    2012-10-12

    ... \\5\\ (a retail foreign exchange (forex) rule). Transactions described in section 2(c)(2)(B)(i)(I...'s retail forex rule must treat similarly all such futures and options and all agreements, contracts... forex rules must prescribe appropriate requirements with respect to disclosure, recordkeeping, capital...

  17. Firm-Specific Foreign Exchange Exposure Identification

    Aabo, Tom; Brodin, Danielle

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have used the stock market approach to find the aggregate number of (firms with) foreign exchange exposures in a given country, region, or industry. Methodologies have differed in many aspects but two of the most basic differences relate to observation frequency and the choice...

  18. Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility

    Gençay, R.; Selçuk, F.; Whitcher, B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility. Our methodology is based on a wavelet multi-scaling approach which decomposes the variance of a time series and the covariance between two time series on a scale by scale basis through the application of a discrete

  19. Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

    Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

  20. A multifractal analysis of Asian foreign exchange markets

    Oh, G.; Eom, C.; Havlin, S.; Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F.; Stanley, H. E.; Kim, S.

    2012-06-01

    We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States in the period from 1991 until 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we also estimate the multifractal spectra of limited series before and after the crisis. We find that the Korean and Thai foreign exchange markets experienced a significant increase in multifractality compared to Hong-Kong and Japan. We also show that the multifractality is stronger related to the presence of high values of returns in the series.

  1. Multifractal Analysis of Asian Foreign Exchange Markets and Financial Crisis

    Oh, Gabjin; Kwon, Okyu; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2012-02-01

    We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we also estimate the multifractal spectra of limited series before and after the crisis. We find that the Korean and Thai foreign exchange markets experienced a significant increase in multifractality compared to Hong-Kong and Japan. We also show that the multifractality is stronge related to the presence of high values of returns in the series.

  2. A Continuous-Time Model for Valuing Foreign Exchange Options

    James J. Kung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the traditional Garman-Kohlhagen FX option model, which assumes constant spot rates, values incorrectly calls and puts for different values of the ratio of exchange rate to exercise price. Specifically, it undervalues calls when the ratio is between 0.70 and 1.08, and it overvalues calls when the ratio is between 1.18 and 1.30, whereas it overvalues puts when the ratio is between 0.70 and 0.82, and it undervalues puts when the ratio is between 0.86 and 1.30.

  3. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management: The Role of Import in Medium-Sized, Manufacturing Firms

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as an instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role of impor...

  4. The Relationship Between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa

    Janet Gale Stotsky; Manuk Ghazanchyan; Olumuyiwa S Adedeji; Nils Øvind Maehle

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized their foreign exchange regimes. The study assesses the relationship between (i) growth and various determinants, including the exchange regime, the real exchange rate, and current account liberalization; and (ii) inflation and various determinants, including lagged inflation, the nominal exchange ra...

  5. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  6. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  7. Cracks in the crystal ball : What happens to firms’ foreign exchange rate exposure when forecasters don’t agree about the future

    A. Muller (Aline); J. Poncelet (Julien); W.F.C. Verschoor (Willem); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe central issue of this paper is whether stock prices are exposed to total exchange rate movements – as traditionally measured – or to revisions in expected future exchange rate movements and unanticipated currency shocks, and by how much of each. Based on a sample of 1675 U.S. firms

  8. Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets

    Ghashghaie, S.; Breymann, W.; Peinke, J.; Talkner, P.; Dodge, Y.

    1996-06-01

    THE availability of high-frequency data for financial markets has made it possible to study market dynamics on timescales of less than a day1. For foreign exchange (FX) rates Müller et al.2 have shown that there is a net flow of information from long to short timescales: the behaviour of long-term traders (who watch the markets only from time to time) influences the behaviour of short-term traders (who watch the markets continuously). Motivated by this hierarchical feature, we have studied FX market dynamics in more detail, and report here an analogy between these dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence3-8. Specifically, the relationship between the probability density of FX price changes (δx) and the time delay (δt) (Fig. la) is much the same as the relationship between the probability density of the velocity differences (δv) of two points in a turbulent flow and their spatial separation δr (Fig. 1b). Guided by this similarity we claim that there is an information cascade in FX market dynamics that corresponds to the energy cascade in hydrodynamic turbulence. On the basis of this analogy we can now rationalize the statistics of FX price differences at different time delays, which is important for, for example, option pricing. The analogy also provides a conceptual framework for understanding the short-term dynamics of speculative markets.

  9. The taxation of foreign exchange differences

    2014-01-01

    M.Com. (Taxation) One of the canons of context requires that a liability will be in 1986:para 4.47). taxation is certainty. "Certainty taxpayer be reasonably certain of what any given set of circumstances" (Margo in this his tax Report, It is submitted that, at present, there is not the desired certainty regarding the treatment of unrealised foreign exchange differences. This is proven by the internal memorandum circularised by the Commissioner of Inland Revenue, advising local Receivers o...

  10. Inverse Statistics in the Foreign Exchange Market

    Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.; Petroni, F.; Simonsen, I.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) $\\rho$ in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM) against the $US for the full year of 1998, but similar results are obtained for the Japanese Yen against the $US. With high statistical significance, the presence of "reson...

  11. An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility

    Helge Berger; Jan-Egbert Sturm; Jakob de Haan

    2000-01-01

    We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into accou...

  12. The foreign exchange market interventions of the European Central Bank

    M. Frenkel

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventionsconducted by the European Central Bank (ECB in the fall of 2000 to support the external stability of the euro. To this end, we discuss different channels through whichinterventions may influence exchange rate dynamics. We use the insights provided by the theoretical and empirical literature to evaluate the effectiveness of theintervention policy of the ECB. In addition, we present an empirical analysis in which we use intra-daily exchange rate data to examine in detail the effects of theinterventions. We find that the interventions only had a rather short-term impact on the exchange rate path and had no effects beyond the short term. Therefore, our results suggest that the intervention policy of the ECB was not effective.

  13. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates ... The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the ... is a prerequisite for attracting investments especially foreign direct investment.

  14. Semi-strong informational efficiency in the Polish foreign exchange market

    Luksz Goczek

    2015-01-01

    During the financial crisis a notion that the Polish exchange rate is not determined effectively was very dominant, because of a contagion effect of the global financial crisis on the Polish economy. In addition, many foreign exchange market analysts explained developments in the Polish exchange market trough a hypothesis that the Polish zloty exchange rate follows other exchange rates. This contradicts market efficiency as this would lead to profitable arbitrage possibility based on past inf...

  15. Central banks should communicate their interventions in the foreign exchange market

    Menkhoff, Lukas; Stöhr, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    Central banks frequently intervene in foreign exchange markets. Using recognized criteria this report analyzes the probability of success in a data set of 4,500 intervention episodes in 33 countries. It is important to differentiate among exchange rate regimes because each focuses on a different goal. While flexible exchange rate regimes intervene less frequently and seek to influence trends, other regimes target exchange rate stabilization by establishing a band within which the exchange rat...

  16. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  17. Usage of Option Contracts for Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    Daniel Armeanu

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Today in Romania, in the context of the liberalization of the capital account and under a floating exchange rate (official is a managed floating currency regime established by National Bank of Romania the foreign exchange rate is very volatile. In consequence the financial institutions, corporations and, especially, the importers and exporters have to deal with a big exposition of currency risk related with their activities. Financial institutions and corporations today must adopt new roles in order to compete successfully in the explosively evolving foreign exchange markets. The methods, instruments and techniques used to manage foreign exchange risk are more complex than ever before. The objective of our paper is to provide the techniques and insights needed to pinpoint opportunities and control risks. We will present the most modern practical methods for managing the currency risk: option strategies (spread, strangle, straddle, etc. Also we will present the advantage, the disadvantage and our opinions related with the use of currency derivatives instruments (especially currency strategies options, making a comparative analysis.

  18. Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market of Papua New Guinea During the Recent Float

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the validity of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Papua New Guinea (PNG) using data on spot exchange rates for four major foreign currencies during the recent float. The unit root test results indicate that all the four exchange rates are random walks supporting the weak-form of the EMH. However, the Johansen multivariate cointegration test, the Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis provide evidence that there are...

  19. 76 FR 25774 - Determination of Foreign Exchange Swaps and Foreign Exchange Forwards Under the Commodity...

    2011-05-05

    ..., and facilitate more stable, liquid markets for derivative instruments. In general, the payment... Oversight Unlike the derivatives markets, banks are the key players in the foreign exchange swaps and... rules of a designated contract market or a swap execution facility, or that is cleared by a derivatives...

  20. The Brazilian experience in managing interest-exchange rate nexus

    Ricardo Carneiro; Pedro Rossi

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses four main questions: firstly, it discusses some theoretical background related to the interest-exchange rate nexus; secondly, it makes an attempt to explain why the interest rate in Brazil is so high, examining briefly the main explanations for it; thirdly, it describes Brazil’s foreign exchange markets, their size and hierarchy; and lastly, it explains the carry trade dynamics considering the institutionalism of the Brazilian foreign exchange market and also the govern...

  1. Financial Security and Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

    Guangyou Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of how foreign exchange reserves maintain financial security is of vital significance. This paper provides simulations and estimations of the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserves under the background of possible shocks to China’s economy due to the further opening of China’s financial market and the sudden stop of capital inflows. Focused on the perspective of financial security, this article tentatively constructs an optimal scale analysis framework that is based on a utility maximization of the foreign exchange reserve, and selects relevant data to simulate the optimal scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves. The results show that: (1 the main reason for the fast growth of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is the structural trouble of its double international payment surplus, which creates long-term appreciation expectations for the exchange rate that make it difficult for international capital inflows and excess foreign exchange reserves to enter the real economic growth mechanism under the model of China’s export-driven economy growth; (2 the average optimal scale of the foreign exchange reserve in case of the sudden stop of capital inflows was calculated through parameter estimation and numerical simulation to be 13.53% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP between 1994 and 2017; (3 with the function of the foreign exchange reserves changing from meeting basic transaction demands to meeting financial security demands, the effect of the foreign exchange reserve maintaining the state’s financial security is becoming more and more obvious. Therefore, the structure of foreign exchange reserve assets should be optimized in China, and we will give full play to the special role of foreign exchange reserve in safeguarding a country’s financial security.

  2. The Uncovered Interest Parity in the Foreign Exchange (FX Markets

    Silvio Ricardo Micheloto

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This work verifies the uncovered interest rates parity (UIP in the FX (foreign exchange emerging markets by using the panel cointegration technique. The data involves several developing countries that compose the EMBI+ Global Index. We compare the results of several panel estimators: OLS (ordinary list square, DOLS (dynamic OLS and FMOLS (fully modified OLS. This new panel technique can handle problems of either non-stationary series (spurious regression or small problem. This latter problem has being considered one of the main causes for distorting the UIP empirical results. By using this approach, we check the UIP in the FX (foreign exchange emerging markets. These markets are more critical because they have been subjected to changing FX regimes and speculative attacks. Our results do not corroborate the uncovered interest parity for the developing countries in the recent years. Thus, the forward premium puzzle may hold in the FX emergent markets.

  3. The Behavioral Bias of Foreign Debt Usage in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    Aabo, Tom

    We investigate the behavioral bias in the use of debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) in managing foreign exchange risks. From a strictly financial (rational) point of view foreign debt and derivates are close substitutes. Whether e.g. a European firm sells forward US dollars against...... foreign exchange risk management in medium-sized, non-financial firms in Denmark and find a behavioral bias in the use of foreign debt. Among the firms that are internationally involved (operating revenues, costs and/or assets in foreign currency), on average a quarter of the financial debt is denominated...... in foreign currency. The use / non-use of foreign debt is positively related to a number of internationality measures but most significantly to the existence of subsidiaries abroad whereas the degree of usage is particularly related to the magnitude of foreign operating assets. The use of foreign debt...

  4. Effects of Financial Crises on the Long Memory Volatility Dependency of Foreign Exchange Rates: the Asian Crisis vs. the Global Crisis

    Young Wook Han

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

  5. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  6. Exchange rate smoothing in Hungary

    Karádi, Péter

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain this preferred rate in the medium term, while market participants are assumed to form rational expectations about this target and influence exchange rates accordingly. The paper applies unobserved varia...

  7. The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager

    Christopher J. Neely

    2005-01-01

    This paper argues that major governments should actively manage their foreign exchange portfolios to maximize the risk-adjusted return to the taxpayer by exploiting long-term, fundamental based predictability in floating exchange rates. Such transactions—equivalent to foreign exchange intervention—would improve welfare by transferring risk from private agents to the risk-tolerant government. Interventions explicitly designed to profit the reserve management authority would be more likely to b...

  8. Foreign Exchange Speculation: An Event Study

    Rob Hayward

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Does speculation facilitate price discovery or instability? If it is price discovery, it is beneficial and should be encouraged; if it is instability, welfare is enhanced by its reduction. This paper seeks to distinguish between these two characteristics by analysing those times when speculation in the foreign exchange market is most extreme. A series of event studies are conducted on the extremes of speculative sentiment and speculative activity. If speculation is noise, extreme sentiment and extreme positions should lead to overshooting and increase risk of subsequent reversals. The finding that speculative extremes do not provide information about subsequent returns implies that speculation is part of the process of price discovery and that efforts to reduce it would reduce the informational efficiency of financial markets.

  9. Cross-sample entropy of foreign exchange time series

    Liu, Li-Zhi; Qian, Xi-Yuan; Lu, Heng-Yao

    2010-11-01

    The correlation of foreign exchange rates in currency markets is investigated based on the empirical data of DKK/USD, NOK/USD, CAD/USD, JPY/USD, KRW/USD, SGD/USD, THB/USD and TWD/USD for a period from 1995 to 2002. Cross-SampEn (cross-sample entropy) method is used to compare the returns of every two exchange rate time series to assess their degree of asynchrony. The calculation method of confidence interval of SampEn is extended and applied to cross-SampEn. The cross-SampEn and its confidence interval for every two of the exchange rate time series in periods 1995-1998 (before the Asian currency crisis) and 1999-2002 (after the Asian currency crisis) are calculated. The results show that the cross-SampEn of every two of these exchange rates becomes higher after the Asian currency crisis, indicating a higher asynchrony between the exchange rates. Especially for Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan, the cross-SampEn values after the Asian currency crisis are significantly higher than those before the Asian currency crisis. Comparison with the correlation coefficient shows that cross-SampEn is superior to describe the correlation between time series.

  10. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  11. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  12. Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

    Kocenda, Evzen; Poghosyan, Tigran

    2009-01-01

    We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors-consumption and inflation-using the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange

  13. Automated exchange transfusion and exchange rate.

    Funato, M; Shimada, S; Tamai, H; Taki, H; Yoshioka, Y

    1989-10-01

    An automated blood exchange transfusion (BET) with a two-site technique has been devised by Goldmann et al and by us, using an infusion pump. With this method, we successfully performed exchange transfusions 189 times in the past four years on 110 infants with birth weights ranging from 530 g to 4,000 g. The exchange rate by the automated method was compared with the rate by Diamond's method. Serum bilirubin (SB) levels before and after BET and the maximal SB rebound within 24 hours after BET were: 21.6 +/- 2.4, 11.5 +/- 2.2, and 15.0 +/- 1.5 mg/dl in the automated method, and 22.0 +/- 2.9, 11.2 +/- 2.5, and 17.7 +/- 3.2 mg/dl in Diamond's method, respectively. The result showed that the maximal rebound of the SB level within 24 hours after BET was significantly lower in the automated method than in Diamond's method (p less than 0.01), though SB levels before and after BET were not significantly different between the two methods. The exchange rate was also measured by means of staining the fetal red cells (F cells) both in the automated method and in Diamond's method, and comparing them. The exchange rate of F cells in Diamond's method went down along the theoretical exchange curve proposed by Diamond, while the rate in the automated method was significantly better than in Diamond's, especially in the early stage of BET (p less than 0.01). We believe that the use of this automated method may give better results than Diamond's method in the rate of exchange, because this method is performed with a two-site technique using a peripheral artery and vein.

  14. Exchange rate risks and their impact upon the energy market

    Abed Al-Zabidi

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of international business in Slovakia brought not only the opening of markets and expansion of enterprise possibilities but also an increase in the competition and new risks. One of such risks is also the exchange rate risk. The business that realizes a financial transaction exceeding borders of the state or derives his buying or selling prices in Slovak crowns from the foreign currency, is subjected to the exchange rate risks. The exchange rate risks are caused by volatility of exchange courses of Slovak crowns related to foreign currencies. The progress of exchange rates can considerably influence a real result of a transaction negatively; therefore it is important for enterprises to identify possible risks resulting from changes in exchange rates, so they could react accordingly.The proposed article is aimed at the explanation of basic techniques of minimizing exchange rate risks with the use of financial tools available on the financial market.

  15. Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

    Povoledo, L.

    2012-01-01

    If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

  16. Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Finland during the Floating Exchange Rate Regime

    Pösö, Mika; Spolander, Mikko

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we use a fairly simple monetary macro model to calculate the quarterly measures of exchange market pressure and the degree of the Bank of Finland's intervention during the time the markka was floated. Exchange market pressure measures the size of the exchange rate change that would have occurred if the central bank had unexpectedly refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market. Intervention activity of the central bank is measured as the proportion of exchange marke...

  17. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    the impact of real exchange rate misalignment has not received adequate attention .... investment (FDI) and the commercial exploitation of oil in 1999. Notably, the flow of .... the analysis proceeds in two steps: 1) we measure the exchange rate misalignment, ... non-tradable goods (TAX) and the net foreign income (NFI).

  18. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    kirstam

    Studies on exchange rate overshooting on the Zambian foreign exchange rate market are .... depreciation between 2008 and 2009 during the great recession. Figure 2 shows ...... manufacturing sector in Nigeria', European Journal of Business and Management, 5(22):. 67–73 .... paper. Washington, DC: IMF Working Paper.

  19. The Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange in an Oil Exporting Economy; The Case of Iran, 1978-1990

    Adnan Mazarei

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for foreign exchange In the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1978-90. The paper then examines the various time series properties of parallel market exchange rate in Iran, and the evidence of the rol...

  20. An analysis of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market in Kenya

    Sifunjo E. Kisaka; Wainaina Gituro; Pokhariyal Ganesh; Ngugi W. Rose

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the Efficiency Market hypothesis in its weak form using run tests, unit root tests and the Ljung-Box Q-statistics. The motivation was to determine whether foreign exchange rate returns follow a random walk. The data covered the period starting January 1994 to June 2007 for the daily closing spot price of the Kenya shillings per US dollar exchange rate. The main finding of this study is that the foreign exchange rate market is not efficient. The results showed that most of ...

  1. Power-law behaviour evaluation from foreign exchange market data using a wavelet transform method

    Wei, H. L.; Billings, S. A.

    2009-09-01

    Numerous studies in the literature have shown that the dynamics of many time series including observations in foreign exchange markets exhibit scaling behaviours. A simple new statistical approach, derived from the concept of the continuous wavelet transform correlation function (WTCF), is proposed for the evaluation of power-law properties from observed data. The new method reveals that foreign exchange rates obey power-laws and thus belong to the class of self-similarity processes.

  2. Power-law behaviour evaluation from foreign exchange market data using a wavelet transform method

    Wei, H.L., E-mail: w.hualiang@sheffield.ac.u [Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, the University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD (United Kingdom); Billings, S.A., E-mail: s.billings@sheffield.ac.u [Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, the University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-07

    Numerous studies in the literature have shown that the dynamics of many time series including observations in foreign exchange markets exhibit scaling behaviours. A simple new statistical approach, derived from the concept of the continuous wavelet transform correlation function (WTCF), is proposed for the evaluation of power-law properties from observed data. The new method reveals that foreign exchange rates obey power-laws and thus belong to the class of self-similarity processes.

  3. Power-law behaviour evaluation from foreign exchange market data using a wavelet transform method

    Wei, H.L.; Billings, S.A.

    2009-01-01

    Numerous studies in the literature have shown that the dynamics of many time series including observations in foreign exchange markets exhibit scaling behaviours. A simple new statistical approach, derived from the concept of the continuous wavelet transform correlation function (WTCF), is proposed for the evaluation of power-law properties from observed data. The new method reveals that foreign exchange rates obey power-laws and thus belong to the class of self-similarity processes.

  4. Structure and Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Networks

    Kwapień, J.; Gworek, S.; Drożdż, S.

    2009-01-01

    We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different representations of the FX network depending on a choice of the base currency. Our results show that the network structure is not stable in time, but there are main clusters of currencies, which persist for a long period of time despite the fact that their size and content are variable. We find a long-term trend in the network's evolution which affects the USD and EUR nodes. In all the network representations, the USD node gradually loses its centrality, while, on contrary, the EUR node has become slightly more central than it used to be in its early years. Despite this directional trend, the overall evolution of the network is noisy.

  5. The Distinctive Role of Foreign Debt in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    Aabo, Tom; Hansen, Marianna Andryeyeva; Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur

    Finance theory suggests that a positive (long) foreign exchange exposure can be offset by debt denominated in foreign currency (“foreign debt”) and empirical studies confirm that foreign debt is used for hedging purposes. We use detailed exposure information on a sample of medium-sized nonfinancial...... firms and show that in its practical hedging application, foreign debt is used distinctively different from derivatives (e.g. forward contracts). While the use of derivatives is associated with flow measures (foreign sales revenue), the use of foreign debt is solely associated with stock measures...... level which makes it possible to go deeper than previous studies in detecting the drivers behind foreign debt usage. The empirical results are important in order to understand the factors driving the use of foreign debt in non-financial firms....

  6. Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

    Bora Suslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation

  7. Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

    Novotný, Jan; Petrov, D.; Urga, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 24, June (2015), s. 66-92 ISSN 1386-4181 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : price jumps * foreign exchange markets * trading Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.726, year: 2015

  8. Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

    Richard M. Levich

    1983-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research completed over the last decade has dramatically increased our understanding of exchange rate behavior. The major insight to come from this decade of research is that foreign exchange is a financial asset. In an asset pricing framework, current exchange rates reflect the expected values of future exogenous variables. The purpose of this paper is to survay the empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, market efficiency and related topics. Section 2 present...

  9. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2......) cointegrated VAR model, much of the excess return puzzle disappears when an uncertainty premium in the foreign exchange market, proxied by the persistent PPP gap, is introduced. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms seem to cause the persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. These results support imperfect...

  10. An analysis of the effectiveness of a joint commodity and foreign exchange rate futures hedge: The case of a Canadian crude oil trader

    Klusa, L.J.

    1993-04-01

    This study focused on reducing risk for Canadian crude oil traders exposed to crude oil price and exchange rate uncertainty. Joint static and flow period hedges were developed and compared to unhedged positions and to naive and simple hedges. Optimal hedge ratio size and hedging effectiveness were identified for a variety of hedge lifting periods and durations. The in-sample results indicated that joint hedge models were more effective than other models in terms of minimizing the variance of returns. Out-of-sample results indicated that joint and simple commodity hedges were equally effective. Other findings included: shorter duration, close to expiry hedges were the most effective; the difference between the variability of spot and future price differences and their correlations were related to hedge ratio size; and a flow period hedge was the most effective hedge when spot prices were monthly average prices. 53 refs., 3 figs., 49 tabs

  11. Liquidity in the foreign exchange market : Measurement, commonality, and risk premiums

    Mancini, Loriano; Ranaldo, Angelo; Wrampelmeyer, Jan

    2013-01-01

    We provide the first systematic study of liquidity in the foreign exchange market. We find significant variation in liquidity across exchange rates, substantial illiquidity costs, and strong commonality in liquidity across currencies and with equity and bond markets. Analyzing the impact of

  12. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  13. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET EFFICIENCY. EMPIRICAL RESULTS FOR THE USD/EUR MARKET

    Katarzyna Anna Czech,; Adam Waszkowski

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to verify whether the USD/EUR exchange rate market is efficient. The fundamental parity condition for testing foreign exchange market efficiency is represented by the uncovered interest-rate parity (UIP). Therefore, the UIP hypothesis verification accounts for the crucial part of the paper. The efficiency of the USD/EUR market is tested by applying the conventional UIP regression approach and orthogonality test of the forward rate forecast error. The results show that ...

  14. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  15. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  16. 78 FR 42439 - Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions

    2013-07-16

    ... a retail forex business, provided that the broker-dealer complies with the Securities Exchange Act...) of which the broker-dealer is a member insofar as they are applicable to retail forex transactions... Exchange Act, to permit a registered broker or dealer (``broker-dealer'') to engage in retail forex...

  17. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  18. Rethinking ASGISA and the rand exchange rate

    Willem H Boshoff

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The ASGISA policy document identifies the exchange rate as one of the factors constraining accelerated growth in South Africa. This note argues that currency developments do not translate into business cycle movements in the aggregate economy, and that a weaker exchange rate is less likely to boost either foreign investment or export performance in the face of regulatory uncertainty. The South African government has recently launched the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA aimed at raising the long-term growth path of the economy. The plan identifies several so-called “binding constraints” that are considered to be inhibiting the economy from rising to more elevated levels of economic growth. One such “constraint”, according to the ASGISA policy document, is the “volatility and level of the currency” (Republic of South Africa, 2006. By including this issue, policymakers have signalled that fluctuations in the Rand are considered significant to broader economic fluctuations in South Africa. This research note questions such a conviction by offering evidence that currency fluctuations are not mirrored in the South African business cycle. Nonetheless, proponents may argue that a weaker Rand will stimulate particular sectors, mostly those that are export-oriented, while it will boost Foreign Direct Investment (FDI. However, this note argues further that a weaker Rand is less likely to generate sustainable improvement in either export-oriented industries or FDI in the absence of other reforms. The following sections consider these two issues in sequence.

  19. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  20. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  1. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  2. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  3. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  4. Essays on Currency Competition, Institutional Restrictions and Exchange Rates

    Bhattacharya, Arghya

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on currency competition, institutional restrictions and exchange rates. When faced with currency competition, a country's government has two tools at its disposal: reduce the level of inflation or place institutional barriers to the use of foreign currency. In the first chapter, I propose a two-country, two-currency New Monetarist model to study currency competition. I model institutional barriers as a `tax' on the real value of foreign currency hol...

  5. Determinants and effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention in Georgia

    Loiseau-Aslanidi, Olga

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 4 (2011), s. 75-95 ISSN 1540-496X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Grant - others:UK(CZ) GAUK 259027 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : determinants of intervention * effectiveness of intervention * foreign exchange intervention Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.953, year: 2011

  6. Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

    Novotný, Jan; Petrov, D.; Urga, G.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 24, June (2015), s. 66-92 ISSN 1386-4181 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-27047S Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : price jumps * foreign exchange markets * trading Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.726, year: 2015

  7. Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics

    van der Ploeg, F.; Venables, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    The permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange, such as that from a resource discovery. Absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment, and investment in structures requires non-traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial

  8. Management of Liquidity Risk Using Foreign Exchange Swap Contracts

    Ivica Prga

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Croatian banks, like the other world banks, are exposed to liquidity risk. This is very significant question to them, particularly in this complex and crisis time. Therefore, the Croatian banks pay much attention to the management of liquidity. In these attempts, the banks use various derivative financial instruments of which the foreign exchange swap contracts are particularly remarkable.

  9. Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

    Bubák, V.; Kočenda, Evžen; Žikeš, F.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 11 (2011), s. 2829-2841 ISSN 0378-4266 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange markets * volatility * spillovers Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.600, year: 2011

  10. Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model

    Petra Posedel

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.

  11. Exchange Rate Policy in Philippine Development

    Bautista, Romeo M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the conduct of exchange rate policy in the Philippines since the early 1980s, paying particular attention to the influence of exchange rate adjustments on relative production incentives. While primary interest is in the exchange rate regime and its incentive effects, the role of trade policy has to be simultaneously analyzed in view of its influence on the conduct of exchange rate policy as well as its direct effect on the real exchange rate. Moreover, there are analytical...

  12. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  13. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  14. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  15. Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran

    Borhan-Azad, Lida

    2006-01-01

    This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. The weak form efficiency is examined by unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981) (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (1988) (PP) test. The results of these tests are con...

  16. Forecasting exchange rates; Kawase yosoku no riron to jissai

    Kiuchi, T. [The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-20

    This paper explains the theory and practice of foreign exchange rate fluctuation. It also explains various factors that constitute the reasons for the difficulty of forecasting the fluctuation in a short to medium period of time as a practical problem, even though forecasting it over a long period of time may be possible theoretically. Export, of which payment received in dollars cannot be used unless exchanged to yen, forms the yen buying demand. Increase in export and trade surplus turns into pressure for the yen appreciation after all. The amounts of exports and imports depend on such fundamentals as productivity and inflation in the country, as well as the cycle of strong business conditions and recession. Staggering of business conditions in Japan and the U.S. causes trade imbalance and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Attempts of grabbing the basic tone of the foreign exchange rates upon equalizing the business conditions in both countries is the purchasing power parity theory, which in fact can explain the long-term fluctuations in the past data. However, in the actual scenes where forecasting over a short to medium period is demanded, the forecasting actions are disturbed by such factors lying complexly as exports and imports of capitals, that is the capital circulation in long and short periods, foreign exchange tradings, and difference in interests inside and outside the country. 3 figs.

  17. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... of exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  18. Multiscale Analysis of Foreign Exchange Order Flows and Technical Trading Profitability

    Nikola Gradojevic; Camillo Lento

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the multiscale (frequency-dependent) relationship between technical trading profitability and feedback trading effects in the Canada/U.S. dollar foreign exchange market. The results suggest weak evidence that technical trading activities of financial and non-financial customers drive frequent violations of the FX market microstructure assumption that exchange rate movements are driven by order flow. After controlling for transaction costs, we find that the contribution...

  19. Test of Weak Form Efficiency: An Empirical Study of the Malaysian Foreign Exchange Market

    Lim, Pei Mun

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically tests the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the weak sense for the Malaysian foreign exchange market. The hypothesis is tested using two ways. First is by testing the random walk hypothesis based on individual unit root test and second is by testing the profitability of simple technical trading rules. The study covers the high frequency daily data from January 1997 to December 2010 and the spot exchange rates are quoted as Malaysian Ringgit per unit of US Dollar. Due...

  20. Exchange rate pass-through and the role of international distribution channels

    Desiraju, Ramarao; Shrikhande, Milind

    1996-01-01

    Manufacturers selling in foreign markets often do not completely pass on the effects of fluctuations in exchange rates to the prices of their products. Our paper addresses this puzzle and studies the effects of the international distribution channel on exchange rate pass-through. We develop an exchange rate pass-through model that takes into account the role of an intermediary between a domestic manufacturer and its consumers in a foreign market. We find that the magnitude of the pass-through...

  1. International finance, Lévy distributions, and the econophysics of exchange rates

    Da Silva, Sergio; Matsushita, Raul; Gleria, Iram; Figueiredo, Annibal; Rathie, Pushpa

    2005-06-01

    This paper surveys the developments in the field of international finance, in particular the research of economists on foreign exchange rates. That might be of interest to physicists working on the econophysics of exchange rates. We show how the econophysics agenda might follow naturally from the economists' research. We also present our own work on the econophysics of exchange rates.

  2. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  3. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    The empirical estimates reveal that one lag variability of import price, exchange rate, foreign cost, domestic competitors price and demand pressure proxied by GDP impact it in the long-run. However, the ECM coefficient is properly signed with -0.549. By implication, approximately 54% of the discrepancy from long run ...

  4. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  5. Empirical Investigation of the Effects of the Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate

    Castro, Juan R.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines, by using several econometric techniques, the effects of foreign reserves and other fundamental variables on the exchange rate using the target zone theory, This paper uses monthly data for Chile from January 1979 to November 1997 The data used consists of foreign reserves, credit from the Central Bank, domestic reserves, imports, exports, claims on government, GDP, foreign liabilities, domestic and foreign interest rate. We find that the interest differential does not hav...

  6. Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Small, Primary-Exporting Country

    Mohsin S. Khan; Peter J. Montiel

    1987-01-01

    Although the nominal exchange rate is often used as a policy instrument in small, primary-commodity-exporting countries, the real exchange rate is an endogenous variable that responds to both exogenous and policyinduced shocks. This paper examines the dynamic effects on the real exchange rate of various shocks, such as devaluation, fiscal and trade policies, and changes in the terms of trade and foreign real interest rates. Because the path of the real exchange rate differs for different type...

  7. Founder Family Influence and Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    Aabo, Tom; Kuhn, Jochen; Zanotti, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    Purpose    The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of founder families in medium-sized, manufacturing firms and to investigate the impact of such influence on risk management - more specifically foreign exchange hedging and speculation. Design/methodology/approach This empirical study...... in the management team, are members of the board of directors, and/or are shareholders of the firm. We find no difference between such founder family firms and other firms in terms of the use / non-use decision related to foreign exchange derivatives but a marked difference in terms of the extent decision. Thus...... in medium-sized firms (as opposed to large, listed firms in most other studies) and adds to the sparse literature on the impact of founder family influence on risk management.  ...

  8. A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

    Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

  9. Segmentation across International Equity, Bond, and Foreign Exchange Markets

    Cathy Ning; Stephen Sapp

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the integration of international financial markets. The integration of financial markets across countries and across asset classes is assumed to hold in most empirical studies, but has only been tested for certain countries and certain asset classes. We test for the integration of international equity, bond and foreign exchange markets. Our results indicate that the three classes of assets are segmented. Investigating potential explanations for this segmentation, we ...

  10. Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?

    L. MENKHOFF; M. SCHLUMBERGER

    1995-01-01

    The effect of technical analyses on the performance of subsequent policies and actions in the foreign exchange markets is analysed using three cases. Results show that use of technical analyses is persistently profitable. Participants, however, tend to view short-term market risk as important and thus decide to forego some of the rules derived from technical analysis. This observation does not negate the theory on efficient learning.

  11. Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide

    Christopher J. Neely

    1997-01-01

    Economists have traditionally been skeptical of the value of technical analysis, the use of past price behavior to guide trading decisions in asset markets. Instead, they have relied on the logic of the efficient markets hypothesis. Christopher J. Neely briefly explains the fundamentals of technical analysis and the efficient markets hypothesis as applied to the foreign exchange market, evaluates the profitability of simple trading rules, and reviews recent ideas that might justify extrapolat...

  12. Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 11 (2009), s. 2164-2173 ISSN 0378-4266 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * Stochastic discount factor * new EU member countries Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.908, year: 2009

  13. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET EFFICIENCY. EMPIRICAL RESULTS FOR THE USD/EUR MARKET

    Katarzyna Anna Czech

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to verify whether the USD/EUR exchange rate market is efficient. The fundamental parity condition for testing foreign exchange market efficiency is represented by the uncovered interest-rate parity (UIP. Therefore, the UIP hypothesis verification accounts for the crucial part of the paper. The efficiency of the USD/EUR market is tested by applying the conventional UIP regression approach and orthogonality test of the forward rate forecast error. The results show that it is hard to say definitely that USD/EUR foreign exchange market is inefficient. The slope coefficient in UIP regression occurs to be negative, which implies the failure of uncovered interest-rate parity. However, there are no foundations to reject the UIP hypotheses in the time of financial crisis of 21st century. Moreover, the article presents that the forward forecast error is not orthogonal to both its lagged value and the interest rate differential. Thus, the semi-strong foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis is rejected for the USD/EUR market.

  14. Measuring the costs of exchange rate volatility

    Paul R. Bergin

    2004-01-01

    Many countries go to great lengths to manage their exchange rates. Probably the most prominent recent example is the European Monetary Union, where all the members abandoned their national currencies and adopted the euro. A number of developing countries maintain other kinds of regimes of managed exchange rates, even though they face potent market pressures to let their exchange rates float. One of the main motives for these arrangements stems from the extreme volatility of exchange rates. Th...

  15. Intervention Analysis of Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Rate ...

    ADOWIE PERE

    to 2014:12 were used and a number of statistical tools are employed to verify this hypothesis. A useful approach is to ..... Conclusion: We have applied the intervention analysis to model ... Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social studies, Vol.

  16. The Deceptive Resilience of Fixed Exchange Rates

    Mushin, Jerry

    2004-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate systems since 1978. Despite the accelerating trend in favour of floating exchange rates, a substantial minority of IMF members have continued to fix the value of their currencies. The recent incidence of each of the principal types of exchange-rate peg is described.

  17. Application for Determination of the Forward Exchange Rate in Access 2003

    Loredana MOCEAN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate set the present rate for a foreign currency transaction with payment or delivery at some future date. Forward rates are calculated by using the current exchange rate for the currency pair and the interest rates for the two currencies and allow you to lock in rate now for a future. This paper describes the formulas which determinate the forward exchange rate and how can we implement them in a short, but efficient informatics application.

  18. 77 FR 69694 - Determination of Foreign Exchange Swaps and Foreign Exchange Forwards Under the Commodity...

    2012-11-20

    ... appropriate regulations governing systemically important financial market utilities and payment, clearing, and... this market significantly outweigh the marginal benefits that central clearing and exchange trading... a [central securities depository] or CCP conducts its money settlements using instruments or...

  19. Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Diebold, Francis X.

    Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics...... are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly...... to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news....

  20. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1990-01-01

    Capital import taxes lower (raise) world (home) interest rates. This shifts home expenditure from the present to the future and foreign expenditure from the future to today. With identical home and foreign expenditure patterns, the change in the composition of world expenditure has no effects on

  1. On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates

    Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan C.; Taylor, Mark P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confid...

  2. Fiscal deficits, exchange rate crises and inflation.

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1991-01-01

    This article extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability. Within this framework we analyze exchange rate based stabilization programs and shows how constraints on Central Bank borrowing during an exchange crisis

  3. Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era

    Barkoulas, John T.; Barilla, Anthony G.; Wells, William

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the long-run dynamics of a system of eight major exchange rates in the euro era using both integer and fractional cointegration methodologies. Contrary to the fragile evidence in the pre-euro era, robust evidence of linear cointegratedness is obtained in the foreign exchange market during the euro era. Upon closer examination, deviations from the cointegrating relationship exhibit nonstationary, long-memory dynamic behavior (Joseph effect). We find the long-memory evidence to be temporally stable in the most recent era. Finally, the foreign exchange system dynamics appears to be characterized by less persistence (smaller fractional exponent) in the euro era (as compared to pre-euro time periods), potentially indicating increased policy coordination by central banks in the recent period.

  4. Effects and Implications for Adoption of Brokerage System in Korea's Foreign Exchange Market

    Yunjong Wang

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available Since January 1st 1999, the South Korean government has begun to establish the understructure of the foreign exchange market in order to achieve the liberalization of foreign exchange. As one of the plans, the trade of foreign exchange which was under the monopolized mediation of the capital medium of financial settlement center will be in the charge of several commercial brokers. In the developed countries, the foreign exchange & stock system and the liberalization of foreign exchange are both widely used in a flexible way. So it is predicted that the introduction of commercial foreign exchange & stock system will bring positive effect to the enhancement of the market efficiency and the function of price both in South Korean market and overseas market, the foster of competitive power of the domestic broker and the improvement of the understructure of domestic foreign exchange market. But more importantly is that the foreign exchange market must expand the scale of its participator, bring in various relevant foreign exchange products and develop the bond market which has a close relationship with the foreign exchange market for further development.

  5. Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: a decomposition approach

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Gospodinov, N.; Jamali, I.; Liu, X.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 42, June (2017), s. 199-211 ISSN 0927-5398 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : exchange rate forecasting * carry trade * return decomposition Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Finance Impact factor: 0.979, year: 2016

  6. rethinking economic reforms and foreign exchange behaviour in an ...

    Ada

    employment, economic growth, protection of the environment and equity/poverty alleviation. ... implications created by exchange rate instability. ... Export and Import, Capital movement and ...... Dissertation submitted to the Department.

  7. Keterlibatan Bank Syariah Dalam Aplikasi Perdagangan Foreign Exchange (FOREX

    Abdul Wahab

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Bank pada hakikatnya adalah lembaga intermediasi antara penabung dan investor, tak terkecuali Bank Syariah. Namun Bank Syariah harus patuh dan tunduk kepada ketentuan-ketentuan syariah yang berlandaskan Al Qur’an dan As Sunnah. Bank Syariah diharapkan terus melakukan inovasi-inovasi dalam produknya, terutama dalam bidang jasa-jasa, seperti perdagangan valuta asing, karena jasa foreign exchange ini belum banyak mendapatkan perhatian dari elemen Bank Shariah dalam penciptaan inovasi produk. Diharapkan dengan inovasi produk valuta asing dapat memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan bagi kinerja Bank Shariah di Indonesia.

  8. Nanjing’s Cultural Exchanges with Foreign Countries

    1996-01-01

    AS an ancient capital city,Nanj-ing has a long history of cul-tural exchanges with foreigncountries.The ruler of the Kingdom ofEastern Wu(222-280 A.D.)sent en-voys to over 100 states in Hainan andSoutheast Asian islands.Some of thestates paid return visits.For instance,in243 the ruler of Funan(present-dayCambodia)sent a musical group to theEastern Wu King,who then built aFunan Music Hall for court maids tolearn Funan music and dances.Dur-ing the Southem Dynasties(420-589A.D.)exchanges with foreign countriesincreased and Funan sent envoysto Jianye and Jiankang(present-dayNanjing)over 30 times.Ancient SriLanka,which was known as the LionState in ancient China,Tianzhu(an-cient India).Persia,the Korean Penin-

  9. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

    Lawal Adedoyin Isola

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

  10. A new assessment of floating exchange rates

    Waimann, D. R.

    1981-01-01

    The switch to floating exchange rates during the 1970s has given economists the first comprehensive opportunity to assess the arguments for and against floating. Much new work has been done on various aspects of floating exchange rate behaviour. This article attempts a limited survey of the evidence concerning two important issues—whether floating exchange rates are inherently unstable and whether they harm international trade.

  11. China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    Tao Wang

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important ...

  12. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  13. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  14. TRANSAKSI PASAR MATA UANG (FOREIGN EXCHANGE DALAM PERSPEKTIF FIQH ISLAM

    Bakhrul Huda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the mechanism of foreign exchange through what so-called Forex teamster. The study concludes that trading, viewed from the aspect of goods exchanged, consists of three kinds, namely barter, buying and selling of goods with money, and money exchange. It is allowed to use broker’s service in money exchange activity. It has been even a compulsory (wâjib ‘ayn for a trader to select and chose a legal and trusteed broker in order to assure and secure his money. The reason is that a broker becomes not only wakîl (a trustee or an agent of trader to proceed the transaction of the trader into the market, but also plays role as a responsible person who guarantees the trustiness of market over the trader. In other words, a broker has to make the market trusts every trader’s transaction. The transaction has to cover all benefits and risks. It can be understood, therefore, that non-dealing desk broker is a person who meets the requirements of wakâlah and d}amân contacts implemented within Forex transaction.

  15. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey

    Marco Rossi; Daniel Leigh

    2002-01-01

    In light of the strong correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic prices in Turkey, it is important to assess the impact of the exchange rate on domestic prices, in particular as Turkey moves to an inflation targeting regime. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression model to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on prices in Turkey. We find that (i) the impact of the exchange rate on prices is over after about a year, but is mostly felt in the first four mon...

  16. Cables, Sharks and Servers: Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market

    Eichengreen, Barry; Lafarguette, Romain; Mehl, Arnaud

    2016-01-01

    We analyze the impact of technology on production and trade in services, focusing on the foreign exchange market. We identify exogenous technological changes by the connection of countries to submarine fiber-optic cables used for electronic trading, but which were not laid for purposes related to the foreign exchange market. We estimate the impact of cable connections on the share of offshore foreign exchange transactions. Cable connections between local markets and matching servers in the ma...

  17. On the evolution of U.S. foreign-exchange-market intervention: thesis, theory, and institutions

    Michael D. Bordo; Owen F. Humpage; Anna J. Schwartz

    2011-01-01

    Attitudes about foreign-exchange-market intervention in the United States evolved in tandem with views about monetary policy as policy makers grappled with the perennial problem of having more economic objectives than independent instruments with which to achieve them. This paper—the introductory chapter to our history of U.S. foreign exchange market intervention—explains this thesis and summarizes our conclusion: The Federal Reserve abandoned frequent foreign-exchange-market intervention bec...

  18. Smuggling, non-fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility

    Richard Clay Barnett

    2003-01-01

    We explore a model where smuggling and a parallel currency market arise, owing to government restrictions that prevent agents from legally holding foreign exchange. Despite such restrictions, agents are able to diversify their savings, holding both domestic and parallel foreign cash, basing their portfolio allocation on current and prospective parallel exchange rates. We attribute movements in parallel rates to non-fundamental uncertainty. The model generates equilibria with both positive and...

  19. World currency exchange rate cross-correlations

    Droå¼dż, S.; Górski, A. Z.; Kwapień, J.

    2007-08-01

    World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 May 2005. Such a dynamics turns out to predominantly involve one outstanding eigenvalue of the correlation matrix. The magnitude of this eigenvalue depends however crucially on which currency is used as a base currency for the remaining ones. Most prominent it looks from the perspective of a peripheral currency. This largest eigenvalue is seen to systematically decrease and thus the structure of correlations becomes more heterogeneous, when more significant currencies are used as reference. An extreme case in this later respect is the USD in the period considered. Besides providing further insight into subtle nature of complexity, these observations point to a formal procedure that in general can be used for practical purposes of measuring the relative currencies significance on various time horizons.

  20. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  1. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  2. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  3. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  4. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the

  5. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  6. 77 FR 41671 - Extension of Interim Final Temporary Rule on Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions

    2012-07-16

    ... Exchange Act,\\3\\ shall not enter into, or offer to enter into, a foreign exchange (``forex'') transaction... conditions as the Federal regulatory agency shall prescribe (``retail forex rule'').\\6\\ A Federal regulatory agency's [[Page 41672

  7. Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

    Ivan Ribnikar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

  8. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc; Estimation and Assessment

    John Cady

    2003-01-01

    Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but...

  9. Is a more stable exchange rate associated with reduced exchange rate pass-through?

    Mark J. Holmes

    2007-01-01

    Pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices is modelled within a regime-switching environment. Evidence suggests that exchange rate pass through can be characterised as regime-specific where the probability of switching between regimes is influenced by the extent of exchange rate volatility.

  10. Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

    Leonardo Salazar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

  11. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  12. Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: a decomposition approach

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Gospodinov, N.; Jamali, I.; Liu, X.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 42, June (2017), s. 199-211 ISSN 0927-5398 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : exchange rate forecasting * carry trade * return decomposition Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Finance Impact factor: 0.979, year: 2016

  13. foreign exchange rationing and wheat markets in ethiopia1

    Rahel

    markets and the international market are by no means straightforward. ... domestic wheat prices closely tracked import parity prices. Then, from April 2007 to May 2008, good domestic harvests coincided with increase international wheat ... assessing the effects of rationing on real exchange rates and domestic prices of.

  14. Foreign exchange risk premium determinants: case of Armenia

    Poghosyan, Tigran; Kočenda, Evžen

    -, č. 297 (2006), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : “forward premium” puzzle * exchange rate risk * time-varying risk premium Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp297.pdf

  15. Foreign exchange risk premium determinants: case of Armenia

    Poghosyan, Tigran; Kočenda, E.

    -, č. 811 (2006), s. 1-17 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : “forward premium” puzzle * exchange rate risk * time-varying risk premium Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp811.pdf

  16. Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2001-01-01

    Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say th...

  17. Foreign exchange intervention and central bank independence: The Latin American experience

    Nunes, Mauricio; Da Silva, Sergio

    2007-01-01

    Employing data from 13 Latin American countries, we find that greater central bank independence is associated with lesser intervention in the foreign exchange market, and also with leaning-against-the-wind intervention. We also find that the structural reforms that occurred in Latin America mostly in the 1990s helped to reduce the need for foreign exchange intervention.

  18. OPPORTUNITIES FOR DECREASING EXCHANGE RISKS OF FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSACTIONS IN ENTERPRISES WITH A SPECIAL REGARD ON CHANGING-OVER FOREIGN CURRENCY BOOKING

    ROZSA ATTILA

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Besides the tendency of market demand and supply, taking the changes of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate into consideration is necessary, as all these are risks. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of its tools is the currency based booking, which may make the effect of the change more predictable.

  19. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    Kosta JOSIFIDIS

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, and implicit/explicit inflation targeting monetary regime and floating (managed/free exchange rate regime. The monetary transmission is tracked during different phases in a transition process towards the EU and compared between different nominal anchors and exchange rate regimes. In order to track the influence of a monetary policy instruments (impulses to different goals of a monetary policy (responses during the period from 6-24 months, we use VAR and VEC models. Monthly frequency of following time series are used in the models: nominal exchange rates, consumer price indexes, foreign exchange reserves, and reference interest rates. The aim of the paper is to point to the distinction between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and to the adequacy of used combination of monetary and exchange rate regimes having in mind revealed features of investigated monetary transmission channels.

  20. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    Power Party [PPP] based on the law of one price asserts that the change in the exchange rate between .... exchange in international economic transactions has made it vitally evident that the management of ... One lesson from this episode is to ...

  1. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate...... the effect of macroscopic tissue anisotropy on the measurement of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) in multicompartment systems....

  2. Analysis on the way of foreign exchange clearing

    Zhu Yingying

    2014-01-01

    Constantly advancing market-led interest rate led to the financial institution traditional business profit margins shrinking. Finance companies which are financial institutions within the enterprise groups withstand greater impact than commercial banks. Therefore, the financial company's top priority is to expand the intermediary business, including settlement and sales, and to develop new profit growth point. This paper compares the existing domestic and foreign currency clearing modes and their efficiencies, combines with the company's business situation, and makes corresponding analysis of the prior preparations and considerations of conducting settlement and sales. (author)

  3. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    FIRST LADY

    economic management and therefore an important macroeconomic indicator used in assessing the ..... Adeolu, O. A. and Babatunde, W. A. (2005), “Trade and Exchange Rate ... Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Tests for.

  4. International trade and exchange rate volatility

    J.M.A. Viaene (Jean-Marie); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractFor currencies with well developed forward markets several papers have investigated the conjectured negative relationship between trade and short term exchange rate volatility, without being very successful. A theoretical explanation for the empirical anomalies is provided by solving

  5. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  6. Labour Demand and Exchange Rate Volatility

    Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...

  7. A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

    Kenneth W Clements; Yihui Lan

    2006-01-01

    Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

  8. Real Exchange Rates in Advanced Transition Economies

    Sanja Grubacic

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent evidence from Eastern Europe suggests that one of the major obstacles towards the adoption of euro may lie in the impact that the recession of 2008 exerted on the trajectory of real exchange rates in new member countries (European Commission, 2015.  This paper aims to establish and explain the relationship between the external shocks derived from the global financial crisis and recession of 2008 and equilibrium real exchange rate in advanced transition economies of Eastern Europe. The interplay between the external and internal balances is explained by developing an inter-temporal optimizing model of the real exchange rate determination in a small open economy with structural distortions. The results of our model suggest that, in the aftermath of recession, if the Eastern European economies attempt to restore and maintain the balance between the consumption, saving, and investment, the equilibrium real exchange rate will tend to reverse its trajectory from appreciation to depreciation over time in order to encourage a greater production in the future. The equilibrium real exchange rate depreciation in the future may obtain either as a result of an increase in the direct subsidies on investment or as a result of reduced subsidies on the "net-of-investment" income.  The deprecation of countries’ real exchange rate, however, may continue to act as an effective constraint against the adoption of euro.

  9. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  10. Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Unemployment Rate in Malaysia

    Muhd Irpan, Hamidah; Mat Saad, Rosfadzimi; Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari Md; Noor, Abd Halim Md; Ibrahim, Noorazilah

    2016-04-01

    Malaysia as a developing country needs support from other countries for economic growth. This is done by receiving massive foreign direct investment (FDI) which contributes to a higher employment rate. Higher employment leads to a better living among Malaysians while increasing its gross domestic product (GDP). During 2009, Malaysia faced a downward trend on the FDI. In many studies, decreasing FDI affects employment rate significantly. This study focuses on the impact of FDI on employment rate in Malaysia. Other factors such as the number of foreign workers, gross domestic product (GDP) and exchange rate (EXCR) are also included in the study. Data used in the study is annual data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to determine the long run relationship between the variables. The study finds that FDI, number of foreign workers, and GDP significantly influence the unemployment rate in Malaysia.

  11. The Determinants of won/dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Policy Recommendations

    Chae-Shick Chung

    1998-09-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzed the feature and different points of the changing of the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar, then discussed the direction of the completion of Korea exchange rate system. The prediction result of the model GARCH which vividly shows the phenomenon of the auto-regression of the exchange rate has indicated the level of the exchange rate yesterday could explain the circumstance of the change of exchange rate today. Meanwhile, the policy of the US exchange rate will affect the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar and the volatility of foreign exchange rate. In the present situation of Korean economy in which the liberalization of capital and the independence of the central bank has been established, the choosing range of the exchange system could only be completely changeable exchange rate system or exchange rate system of multilateral arrangement like Europe. However, in terms of the condition of the world economy, the introduction of the latter system is too early. There is an idea that under the changeable exchange rate system which is the only choice, it is the right time to activate the main body of private economy, the financial derivatives market in which the exchange risk could be trade-off. Government should work on and create a policy that would be able to satisfy the expectations of the market participants.

  12. Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility

    Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout...

  13. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  14. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  15. Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System

    Geza, Paula; Giurca Vasilescu, Laura

    2011-01-01

    One of the most important issues of monetary policy is to find out whether the state should intervene among the exchange rates, taking into account the fact that changes in the exchange rates represent a significant transmission channel of the effects generated by the monetary policy. Taking into consideration the failure of fixed exchange rate regimes and the recent improvement of financial markets, the return in the near future to such a regime – as for example the Bretton Woods system –...

  16. Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

    Michał Buszko

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

  17. 22 CFR 3.12 - Exemption of grants and other foreign government assistance in cultural exchange programs from...

    2010-04-01

    ... FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS § 3.12 Exemption of grants and other foreign government assistance in cultural... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Exemption of grants and other foreign government assistance in cultural exchange programs from coverage of foreign gifts and decorations...

  18. Dynamic communities in multichannel data: an application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007-2008 credit crisis.

    Fenn, Daniel J; Porter, Mason A; McDonald, Mark; Williams, Stacy; Johnson, Neil F; Jones, Nick S

    2009-09-01

    We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchange market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. We study the period 2005-2008, which includes the recent credit and liquidity crisis. Using community detection, we find that exchange rates that are strongly attached to their community are persistently grouped with the same set of rates, whereas exchange rates that are important for the transfer of information tend to be positioned on the edges of communities. Our analysis successfully uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market during the credit crisis.

  19. Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007-2008 credit crisis

    Fenn, Daniel J.; Porter, Mason A.; McDonald, Mark; Williams, Stacy; Johnson, Neil F.; Jones, Nick S.

    2009-09-01

    We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchange market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. We study the period 2005-2008, which includes the recent credit and liquidity crisis. Using community detection, we find that exchange rates that are strongly attached to their community are persistently grouped with the same set of rates, whereas exchange rates that are important for the transfer of information tend to be positioned on the edges of communities. Our analysis successfully uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market during the credit crisis.

  20. Currency co-movement and network correlation structure of foreign exchange market

    Mai, Yong; Chen, Huan; Zou, Jun-Zhong; Li, Sai-Ping

    2018-02-01

    We study the correlations of exchange rate volatility in the global foreign exchange(FX) market based on complex network graphs. Correlation matrices (CM) and the theoretical information flow method (Infomap) are employed to analyze the modular structure of the global foreign exchange network. The analysis demonstrates that there exist currency modules in the network, which is consistent with the geographical nature of currencies. The European and the East Asian currency modules in the FX network are most significant. We introduce a measure of the impact of individual currency based on its partial correlations with other currencies. We further incorporate an impact elimination method to filter out the impact of core nodes and construct subnetworks after the removal of these core nodes. The result reveals that (i) the US Dollar has prominent global influence on the FX market while the Euro has great impact on European currencies; (ii) the East Asian currency module is more strongly correlated than the European currency module. The strong correlation is a result of the strong co-movement of currencies in the region. The co-movement of currencies is further used to study the formation of international monetary bloc and the result is in good agreement with the consideration based on international trade.

  1. Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions by Intervention Agent with an Artificial Market Approach

    Matsui, Hiroki; Tojo, Satoshi

    We propose a multi-agent system which learns intervention policies and evaluates the effect of interventions in an artificial foreign exchange market. Izumi et al. had presented a system called AGEDASI TOF to simulate artificial market, together with a support system for the government to decide foreign exchange policies. However, the system needed to fix the amount of governmental intervention prior to the simulation, and was not realistic. In addition, the interventions in the system did not affect supply and demand of currencies; thus we could not discuss the effect of intervention correctly. First, we improve the system so as to make much of the weights of influential factors. Thereafter, we introduce an intervention agent that has the role of the central bank to stabilize the market. We could show that the agent learned the effective intervention policies through the reinforcement learning, and that the exchange rate converged to a certain extent in the expected range. We could also estimate the amount of intervention, showing the efficacy of signaling. In this model, in order to investigate the aliasing of the perception of the intervention agent, we introduced a pseudo-agent who was supposed to be able to observe all the behaviors of dealer agents; with this super-agent, we discussed the adequate granularity for a market state description.

  2. Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

    Teneng, Dean

    2013-09-01

    We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

  3. 3ON PAK RUPEE EXCHANGE RATES: WHETHER STOCK OR FLOW MATTERS?

    Razzaque H Bhatti

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the monetary model or the flow model of exchange rate explains the long-run movements in Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the four major currencies – the US dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen – over the period 1983q1-2009q4. Results obtained by employing the Johansen and Juselius (1990 technique of cointegration are supportive of the monetary model in two Pak rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar and the Swiss franc when both short- and long-run interest rates are used and of the flow model in three exchange rates vis-à-vis the British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen when the short-run interest rate is used. These results show that both stock equilibrium in capital markets and flow equilibrium in foreign exchange markets determine Pak rupee exchange rates.

  4. Visibility graph approach to exchange rate series

    Yang, Yue; Wang, Jianbo; Yang, Huijie; Mang, Jingshi

    2009-10-01

    By means of a visibility graph, we investigate six important exchange rate series. It is found that the series convert into scale-free and hierarchically structured networks. The relationship between the scaling exponents of the degree distributions and the Hurst exponents obeys the analytical prediction for fractal Brownian motions. The visibility graph can be used to obtain reliable values of Hurst exponents of the series. The characteristics are explained by using the multifractal structures of the series. The exchange rate of EURO to Japanese Yen is widely used to evaluate risk and to estimate trends in speculative investments. Interestingly, the hierarchies of the visibility graphs for the exchange rate series of these two currencies are significantly weak compared with that of the other series.

  5. Topology of foreign exchange markets using hierarchical structure methods

    Naylor, Michael J.; Rose, Lawrence C.; Moyle, Brendan J.

    2007-08-01

    This paper uses two physics derived hierarchical techniques, a minimal spanning tree and an ultrametric hierarchical tree, to extract a topological influence map for major currencies from the ultrametric distance matrix for 1995-2001. We find that these two techniques generate a defined and robust scale free network with meaningful taxonomy. The topology is shown to be robust with respect to method, to time horizon and is stable during market crises. This topology, appropriately used, gives a useful guide to determining the underlying economic or regional causal relationships for individual currencies and to understanding the dynamics of exchange rate price determination as part of a complex network.

  6. The influence of interest rates on the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility

    Florin MAVRIS; Dumitru-Cristian OANEA

    2014-01-01

    The dynamic of interest rates has been the subject of attention by both traders and researchers. We see in what manner different factors that depend on the actions of central banks that influence them by using a GARCH type model and we compare its performance with other models to see what approach explains and predicts the movement of the exchange rate. To better understand the type of model that is applicable the data is tested for heteroskedasticity, and only after that the model is impleme...

  7. Chartist Trading in Exchange Rate Theory

    Selander, Carina

    2006-01-01

    This thesis consists of four papers, of which paper 1 and 4 are co-written with Mikael Bask. Paper [1] implements chartists trading in a sticky-price monetary model for determining the exchange rate. It is demonstrated that chartists cause the exchange rate to "overshoot the overshooting equilibrium" of a sticky-price monetary model. Chartists base their trading on a short-long moving average. The importance of technical trading depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. The exc...

  8. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  9. Influence of Foreign Direct Investments on Commodity Exchange of the Republic of Croatia

    Goran Marijanović

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Almost all countries of the world try to ensure accelerated development of their economies with the help of foreign direct investments. Since the foreign direct investments, in addition to capital, potentially ensure the transfer of contemporary technology, management and marketing knowledge and skills respectively, they can be a signifcant growth factor of competitive abilities of national economies and involvement of countries into international exchange. Trough the RCA method and “Trade Overlap” index, this paper analyzes the infuence of foreign direct investments on the comparative advantages and specialization degree in international commodity exchange for the selected group of transition countries and the Republic of Croatia. The paper tries to determine how much the foreign direct investments have infuenced the structure change of the foreign trade exchange and whether they have contributed to export growth of more complex groups of products in the observed period.

  10. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  11. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  12. Apparent exchange rate for breast cancer characterization.

    Lasič, Samo; Oredsson, Stina; Partridge, Savannah C; Saal, Lao H; Topgaard, Daniel; Nilsson, Markus; Bryskhe, Karin

    2016-05-01

    Although diffusion MRI has shown promise for the characterization of breast cancer, it has low specificity to malignant subtypes. Higher specificity might be achieved if the effects of cell morphology and molecular exchange across cell membranes could be disentangled. The quantification of exchange might thus allow the differentiation of different types of breast cancer cells. Based on differences in diffusion rates between the intra- and extracellular compartments, filter exchange spectroscopy/imaging (FEXSY/FEXI) provides non-invasive quantification of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) of water between the two compartments. To test the feasibility of FEXSY for the differentiation of different breast cancer cells, we performed experiments on several breast epithelial cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, we performed the first in vivo FEXI measurement of water exchange in human breast. In cell suspensions, pulsed gradient spin-echo experiments with large b values and variable pulse duration allow the characterization of the intracellular compartment, whereas FEXSY provides a quantification of AXR. These experiments are very sensitive to the physiological state of cells and can be used to establish reliable protocols for the culture and harvesting of cells. Our results suggest that different breast cancer subtypes can be distinguished on the basis of their AXR values in cell suspensions. Time-resolved measurements allow the monitoring of the physiological state of cells in suspensions over the time-scale of hours, and reveal an abrupt disintegration of the intracellular compartment. In vivo, exchange can be detected in a tumor, whereas, in normal tissue, the exchange rate is outside the range experimentally accessible for FEXI. At present, low signal-to-noise ratio and limited scan time allows the quantification of AXR only in a region of interest of relatively large tumors. © 2016 The Authors. NMR in Biomedicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. The models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on import, export, and foreign exchange reserves

    Sugiyanto; Wibowo, Supriyadi; Rizky Aristina Suwardi, Vivi

    2017-12-01

    The severity of the financial crisis that occurred in Indonesia required an early warning system of financial crisis. The financial crisis in Indonesia can be detected based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of the research is to determine an appropriate model to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. Markov switching is an alternative framework for the approach often used in financial crisis detection. Combined volatility and Markov switching model with three states assumptions can be established if an AR and volatility models have been obtained. Imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves data from January 1990 to December 2016 have the heteroscedasticity effect so that an ARCH model is used as a volatility model. Research shows that SWARCH(3.1) model is an appropriate model for detecting financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves.

  14. The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Is It Applicable to the Foreign Exchange Market?

    Nguyen, James

    2004-01-01

    The study analyses the applicability of the efficient market hypothesis to the foreign exchange market by testing the profitability of the filter rule on the spot market. The significance of the returns was validated by comparing them to the returns from randomly generated shuffled series via bootstrap methods. The results were surprising. For the total period (1984-2003) small filter rules could deliver significant returns indicating an inefficient foreign exchange market. However, once the ...

  15. Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Reserve Bank’s Balance Sheet

    Christian Vallence

    2012-01-01

    The Reserve Bank of Australia holds and manages the nation’s foreign exchange reserve assets in order to meet its policy objectives. While Australia’s foreign exchange reserves are relatively modest by international standards, they nonetheless constitute a sizeable portion of the Bank’s balance sheet, and variations in the Australian dollar value of these reserves are usually the most volatile component of the Bank’s profit and loss statement. This article discusses some of the key decisions ...

  16. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author

  17. The foreign exchange market: return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and the Epps effect

    Drożdż, Stanisław; Kwapień, Jarosław; Oświȩcimka, Paweł; Rak, Rafał

    2010-10-01

    We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all of the pairs considered are well described by the non-extensive statistics in terms of q-Gaussians. There exist some small quantitative variations in the non-extensivity q-parameter values for different exchange rates (which depend also on the time scales studied), and this can be related to the importance of a given exchange rate in the world's currency trade. Temporal correlations organize the series of returns such that they develop the multifractal characteristics for all of the exchange rates, with a varying degree of symmetry of the singularity spectrum f(α), however. The most symmetric spectrum is identified for the GBP/USD. We also form time series of triangular residual returns and find that the distributions of their fluctuations develop disproportionately heavier tails as compared to small fluctuations, which excludes description in terms of q-Gaussians. The multifractal characteristics of these residual returns reveal such anomalous properties as negative singularity exponents and even negative singularity spectra. Such anomalous multifractal measures have so far been considered in the literature in connection with diffusion-limited aggregation and with turbulence. Studying the cross-correlations among different exchange rates, we found that market inefficiency on short time scales leads to the occurrence of the Epps effect on much longer time scales, but comparable to the ones for the stock market. Although the currency market is much more liquid than the stock markets and has a much greater transaction frequency, the building up of correlations takes up to several hours—a duration that does not differ much from what is observed in the stock markets. This may suggest

  18. The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade

    Gabriela Dobrotă

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unprecedented development of international trade relations has generated the possibility of obtaining a significant part of the GDP of the participating countries in foreign trade. As a result, the issue of competitiveness in international economy has become a major concern to authorities. In the category of factors which are influencing the competitiveness level is registered the volatility of the exchange rate. In this paper there were analyzed the aspects regarding the evolution of Romania's foreign trade and exchange rate, in the context of monetary policy measures. The conclusion is that the development plan of the national economy is determined by the action of a complex of economic, social and political factors, but measures taken by the monetary authorities in relation to the regime of exchange may generate visible effects at this level and thus to the volume of foreign trade relations.

  19. Causal relationship between the global foreign exchange market based on complex networks and entropy theory

    Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Qi; Li, Qingchen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Mutual information is used as the edge weights of nodes instead of PCC, which overcomes the shortcomings of linear correlation functions. • SGD turns into a new cluster center and gradually becomes a point connecting the Asian and European clusters during and after the US sub-prime crisis. • Liang's entropy theory, which has not been adopted before in the global foreign exchange market, is considered. - Abstract: The foreign exchange (FX) market is a typical complex dynamic system under the background of exchange rate marketization reform and is an important part of the financial market. This study aims to generate an international FX network based on complex network theory. This study employs the mutual information method to judge the nonlinear characteristics of 54 major currencies in international FX markets. Through this method, we find that the FX network possesses a small average path length and a large clustering coefficient under different thresholds and that it exhibits small-world characteristics as a whole. Results show that the relationship between FX rates is close. Volatility can quickly transfer in the whole market, and the FX volatility of influential individual states transfers at a fast pace and a large scale. The period from July 21, 2005 to March 31, 2015 is subdivided into three sub-periods (i.e., before, during, and after the US sub-prime crisis) to analyze the topology evolution of FX markets using the maximum spanning tree approach. Results show that the USD gradually lost its core position, EUR remained a stable center, and the center of the Asian cluster became unstable. Liang's entropy theory is used to analyze the causal relationship between the four large clusters of the world.

  20. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    Southern African Business Review ... This finding is inconsistent with the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which asserts that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate ... Key words: Exchange rates, monetary model, autoregressive distributed lag, cointegration, exchange rate overshooting ...

  1. What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?

    Gregory P. Hopper

    1997-01-01

    Do economic factors influence exchange rates? Or does market sentiment play a bigger role? Are short-run exchange rates predictable? Greg Hopper reviews exchange-rate economics, focusing on what is predictable and what isn't. He also examines the practical implications of exchange-rate theories for currency option pricing, risk management, and portfolio selection.

  2. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  3. Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-based Approach

    van Horen, N.; Jager, H.; Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates whether, during the Asian crisis, contagion occurred from Thailand to the other crisis countries through the foreign exchange market, and, if so, determines the contribution of this contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange

  4. The Impact of Foreign Policy on Educational Exchange: The Swedish State Scholarship Programme 1938-1990

    Åkerlund, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Programmes of international educational exchange are not only carried out for educational purposes, but form an important part of modern-day public diplomacy. Through exchange programmes education and research are linked with foreign policy interests, which then in turn should affect the international contacts of universities and research…

  5. Recurrence plots of exchange rates of currencies

    Sparavigna, Amelia Carolina

    2014-01-01

    Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies too. In this paper, we will show that these plots are able to characterize the periods of oscillation and random walk of currencies and enhance their reply to news and events, by means of texture transitions. The examples of recurrence plots given here are obt...

  6. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    Rime, Dagfinn; Sucarrat, Genaro

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  7. Taxa de câmbio, comércio exterior e desindustrialização precoce: o caso brasileiro Exchange rate, foreign trade and early deindustrialisation: the case of Brazil

    Nelson Marconi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A motivação deste estudo é avaliar o potencial processo de desindustrialização precoce no Brasil ou a redução da participação da manufatura no valor adicionado em níveis da renda per capita inferiores aos observados em semelhantes processos ocorridos nos países desenvolvidos. Para tal, foi especificado um modelo que incorpora diversos fatores os quais podem ter levado ao processo de redução da participação da manufatura no valor adicionado observado no Brasil, desde a década de 1980, com destaque para a influência da sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio. Os dados sugerem ser essa correlação significante.The reason for this study is to evaluate the potential process of early deindustrialization in Brazil, or, the falling share of manufacturing in the value added at lower levels of per capita income, when compared to those perceived in similar processes in developed countries. To do so, the study has specified a model that incorporates several factors that may have led to the process of reducing the share of manufacturing in the value added in Brazil since the 1980s. It also highlights the influence of the overvalued exchange rate. The data suggests that this correlation is significant.

  8. Random walk theory and exchange rate dynamics in transition economies

    Gradojević Nikola

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay's (1988 conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright's (2000 non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990 and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.

  9. Effects of Intervention in the Spot Currency Market on the BRL/USD Exchange Rate from 1999 to 2008: an Event Study

    Roberto Meurer

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

  10. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    Dražen Koški

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchange rate in relation to floating exchange rate were carried out. Although the question is about the extreme systems, disregarding the system without domestic currency in circulation, their comparison makes possible completely satisfactory basis for the right conclusions on the choice of optimal exchange rate system for the Republic of Croatia. Considering its economic particularities, the system of managed-floating exchange rate without proclaimed exchange direction in advance is certainly optimal for the Republic of Croatia. Namely, within the framework of this system the limited floating exchange rates decrease the foreign exchange risk allowing to monetary authorities, at least partly, the independent monetary policy

  11. Trade Adjustments to Exchange Rate Changes by Japanese Manufacturing MNEs: Intra-firm and arm's length transactions

    ANDO Mitsuyo; KIMURA Fukunari

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how Japanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) adjust to exchange rate changes. Using the micro-data of Japanese manufacturing MNEs from 1994 to 2010, we find that exports tend to respond to exchange rate changes, in particular when wholly or majority-owned affiliates are dominant among their foreign affiliates and when intra-firm trade ratios are higher. Moreover, the responsiveness to exchange rate changes is higher for intra-firm exports than for total expo...

  12. Foreign currency exchange network topology across the 2008 credit crisis

    Sharif, Shamshuritawati; Ap, Nuraisah Che; Ruslan, Nuraimi

    2017-05-01

    A stable world currency exchange rate is a very important aspect to be considered for a developed country, i.e Malaysia. A better understanding about the currencies itself is needed nowadays. This project is about to understanding the fluctuation and to identify the most influential world currencies in the three different cases; before credit crisis, during credit crisis and after credit crisis. A network topology approach is use to examine the interrelationship between currencies based on correlation analysis. With this point of view, those relationships can be measured by a correlation structure among the currencies. The network can be analyse by filtering the important information using minimum spanning tree (MST) and interpret it using degree centrality as the centrality measure. This topology will give a useful guide to understand the behaviour and determine the most influential currency in the network as a part of a complex system. All currencies are compared among the three different cases; before credit crisis, during credit crisis and after credit crisis period. The result of this project shows that Unites State Dollar (USD), Brazilian Real (BRL), United Kingdom Pound (EUR) and Danish Krone (DKK) are the most influential currencies before the credit crisis period. With respect to during the credit crisis, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dominates the network and it is followed by Singapore Dollar (SGD) for after the credit crisis period.

  13. Policies and Procedures for Foreign Exchange Agencies. First Edition.

    Hartman, Donald D.

    The guide details the policy of the Jefferson County (Alabama) Board of Education policy concerning international exchange of students (travel both to and from United States) in elementary and secondary grades. The first section specifies the standards by which the county will evaluate all international exchange agencies concerning structure,…

  14. The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports

    Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on s...

  15. 14 CFR 65.43 - Rating privileges and exchange.

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Rating privileges and exchange. 65.43... § 65.43 Rating privileges and exchange. (a) The holder of a senior rating on August 31, 1970, may at any time after that date exchange his rating for a facility rating at the same air traffic control...

  16. Do exchange rates follow random walks? A variance ratio test of the ...

    The random-walk hypothesis in foreign-exchange rates market is one of the most researched areas, particularly in developed economies. However, emerging markets in sub-Saharan Africa have received little attention in this regard. This study applies Lo and MacKinlay's (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Wright's ...

  17. Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment: A Panel Data Cointegration Approach

    Ibrahima Amadou DIALLO

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the link between real exchange rate volatility and domestic investment by using panel data cointegration techniques. We study the empirical connection between real effective exchange rate volatility and investment for 51 developing countries (23 low-income and 28 middle-income countries. The theoretical relationship between investment and real exchange rate volatility predicts that the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on profits are ambiguous. The empirical results illustrate that real effective exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility.

  18. The impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in BRICS economies

    Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Gnagne, Pascal Xavier

    2017-01-01

    This study intends to analyse the impact of exchange rate risk on equity returns and bond yields as well as the volatility spillover between the foreign exchange, equity and bond markets in the BRICS economies. To reach this objective, a multivariate GARCH-M with BEKK specifications is applied on weekly data obtained from Thomson Reuters DataStream. The findings of the paper show that exchange rate volatility has a positive impact on ten-year bond yields in all BRICS countries except in South...

  19. Segmentation and Time-of-Day Patterns in Foreign Exchange Markets

    Angelo Ranaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in foreign exchange markets: Domestic currencies appreciate (depreciate) systematically during foreign (domestic) working hours. These time-of-day patterns are statistically and economically highly significant. They pervasively persist across many years, even after accounting for calendar effects. This phenomenon is difficult to reconcile with the random walk and market efficiency hypothesis. Microstructural and behavioural explanations suggest tha...

  20. Complexity, rate of energy exchanges and stochasticity

    Casartelli, M.; Sello, S.

    1987-01-01

    The complexity of trajectories in the phase of anharmonic crystal (mostly a Lennard-Jones chain) is analysed by the variance of microcanonical density and by new parameters P and chi defined, respectively, as the mean value of the time averages and the relative variance of the absolute exchange rate of energies among the normal modes. Evidence is given to the trapping action of residual invariant surfaces in low stochastic regime of motion. The parameter chi, moreover, proves efficient in exploring the border of stochasticity. A simple power law for P vs. the specific energy is obtained and proved to be independent of stochasticity and of the type of anharmonic potential

  1. Influence of corruption on economic growth rate and foreign investment

    Podobnik, Boris; Shao, Jia; Njavro, Djuro; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-06-01

    We analyze the dependence of the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) per capita growth rates on changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index ( CPI). For the period 1999 2004 for all countries in the world, we find on average that an increase of CPI by one unit leads to an increase of the annual GDP per capita growth rate by 1.7%. By regressing only the European countries with transition economies, we find that an increase of CPI by one unit generates an increase of the annual GDP per capita growth rate by 2.4%. We also analyze the relation between foreign direct investments received by different countries and CPI, and we find a statistically significant power-law functional dependence between foreign direct investment per capita and the country corruption level measured by the CPI. We introduce a new measure to quantify the relative corruption between countries based on their respective wealth as measured by GDP per capita.

  2. Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

    Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    2014-01-01

    Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

  3. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  4. FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America

    Silvia Dal Bianco

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH. Our results obtained, employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far as a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is found. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the policy of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

  5. The Financial Crisis through the Lens of Foreign Exchange Swap Markets

    Crystal Ossolinski; Andrew Zurawski

    2010-01-01

    During the financial crisis, non-US banks relied increasingly on foreign exchange swap markets to fund their US dollar asset holdings. This caused the cost of borrowing US dollars via the swap market to rise above the measured cost of borrowing US dollars directly in money markets – an apparent deviation from the covered interest parity condition. Pricing in the Australian dollar foreign exchange swap market, and to a lesser degree the cross-currency swap market, also reflected the global s...

  6. Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

    Taly I

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

  7. Are The ASEAN-5 Foreign Exchange Market Efficient? Evidence From Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Philippines: Post-Global Economic Crisis 2008

    Aditya Andika Putra

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE This paper examines market efficiency of foreign exchange markets in South East Asia (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Philippines after the global crisis period 2008. The time span covered by the samples are from 2009 to 2014, with the total number of observations for spot and forward exchange rate data amounting to 1565 data points. This study uses three different approaches to examine efficiency within countries and across countries. The result of this study shows that foreign exchange markets in the ASEAN-5 countries are efficient within countries, but have not been efficient across countries, especially when the country has a bivariate relationship with Thailand's foreign exchange market. The main implication of this study is that investors in the ASEAN-5 market cannot obtain abnormal returns using technical analysis on within countries foreign exchange market. In addition, there is no significant differences for participants in the foreign exchange market whether they are using hedging or not hedging. Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE

  8. Build to order and entry/exit strategies under exchange rate uncertainty

    Lin Chin-Tsai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Under uncertainty of exchange rate, we extend the build to order production model of Lin et al. (2002 by considering the export-oriented manufacturer to make decisions to switch production location freely between domestic and foreign ones. The export-oriented manufacturer is risk neutral and has rational expectations. When we transfer the production location from domestic (foreign to foreign (domestic, and the production location transferring cost and the drift of real exchange rate are both equal to zero, then the optimal entry and exit threshold value of Cobb-Douglas production function are equal, no matter whether we use real options or net present value method. Thus export-oriented manufacturer can make decisions at the optimal transfer threshold value for transferable locations wherever the production locations are. It provides the export-oriented manufacturer with another way of thinking.

  9. Exchange Rate Determinants in Russia; 1992-1993

    Vincent Koen; Eric Meyermans

    1994-01-01

    This paper examines the evolution of the exchange rate of the ruble vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from exchange rate unification, in July 1992, to the end of 1993. The expected and actual paths of the exchange rate are related to the exchange and trade regime and to the stance of financial and exchange rate policies. An econometric analysis based on weekly data is offered, which suggests that monetary factors have a significant impact on the short run behavior of the exchange rate.

  10. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    ... effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance in Nigeria. .... main factors that impacts on real exchange rate in India .... financial assets and ignores non-economic factor such as .... and fiscal policies to control inflation.

  11. On exchange rate misalignments in the Eurozone's peripheral countries

    Grochová, Ladislava; Plecitá, Klára

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we model equilibrium exchange rates for the Eurozone's countries on the basis of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, which assumes, that equilibrium exchange rates are in the long run affected by economic fundamentals. To assess the degree of exchange rate misalignment for the Eurozone's peripheral countries - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - the gap between the actual and the modelled equilibrium exchange rate value is calculated. Our results show that Spain, Portugal and Ireland had their real exchange rates in equilibrium when they joined the Eurozone; however their real exchange rates have been persistently overvalued since the beginning of the 2000s. Greece, on the other hand, has experienced diminishing undervaluation at the beginning of its membership in the Eurozone and since 2009 has exhibited an overvalued real exchange rate.

  12. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    Rahel

    magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of ... objectives in the area of price stability and economic growth. Volatile real ..... Exchange rate shocks and instability is a common feature of emerging.

  13. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function

    Krušković Borivoje D.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a particular interest in the relation between exchange rates and interest rates both in developed countries and emerging countries. This is understandable given the important role that these variables have in determining the movement of nominal and real economic variables, including the movement of domestic inflation, real output, exports and imports, foreign exchange reserves, etc. To realized the importance of the given instruments selected macroeconomic indicators, data analysis (monthly data relating to Serbia was made on the basis of the Transfer Function Model, a data analysis (annual data relating to emerging countries was done on the basis of the Stepvise Multiple Regression model. In the transfer function model we used the Maximum Likelihood method for assessing unknown coefficients. In the gradual multiple regression model we used the Least Square method for the evaluation of unknown coefficients. All indicator values were used in the original unmodified form, i.e. there was no need for a variety of transformations. Empirical analysis showed that the exchange rate is a more significant transmission mechanism than the interest rate both in emerging markets and Serbia.

  14. 76 FR 46652 - Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions (Regulation NN)

    2011-08-03

    ... Federal regulatory agency shall prescribe \\6\\ (a ``retail forex rule''). Section 2(c)(2)(B)(i)(I) includes... Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78f(a)).'' \\7\\ A Federal regulatory agency's retail forex rule must treat... retail forex statutory provisions will be the section where the provisions will be codified in the...

  15. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  16. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  17. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  18. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  19. Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

    Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

    2014-01-01

    We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

  20. Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile.

    Jose De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman R.

    2004-01-01

    The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to face exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities taken up by the corporate sector to decrease its vulnerability through balance sheet effects; and a low and decreasing level of passthrough from the exchange rate to prices. ...

  1. Exchange Rate Regime in Russia, Evaluation and Recommendations

    Olga, Vasilevskaya

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies exchange rate choice in Russia with respect to social, economic and political determinants. The study deliberately narrowed the scope of the discussion to two extreme cases, i.e. fixed and floating exchange rate. Today Russia applies managed floating exchange rate arrangement and it is important to determine the direction of the further monetary policy development either towards fixed or floating exchange rate. The paper argues that the logical extension of the historical t...

  2. Exchange-Rate Unification with Black Market Leakages; Russia 1992

    Linda S. Goldberg

    1993-01-01

    In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took place in July 1992. The model developed here allows for leakages between official and black markets and permits flexibility of the exchange rates in both official and parallel currency markets. Within th...

  3. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo

    2004-01-01

    The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common b...

  4. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WHEAT TRADE WORLDWIDE

    Sun, Changyou; Kim, Mina; Koo, Won W.; Cho, Guedae; Jin, Hyun Joung

    2002-01-01

    A modified gravity-type model was employed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate volatility on wheat exports worldwide. Special attention was given to the econometric properties of the gravity model within panel framework. Short and long-term measures of exchange rate volatility were constructed and compared. Both measures of exchange rate volatility have exhibited a negative effect on world wheat trade and the long-term effect was even larger. This result implies that exchange rate volatil...

  5. A Case for Intermediate Exchange-Rate Regimes

    Agnès Bénassy-Quéré; Véronique Salins

    2010-01-01

    Despite increasing capital mobility and the subsequent difficulty in controlling exchange rates, intermediate exchange-rate regimes have remained widespread, especially in emerging and developing economies. This piece of evidence hardly fits the "impossible Trinity" theory arguing that it becomes difficult to control the exchange rate without a "hard" device when capital flows are freed. Calvo and Reinhart (2000) have suggested several explanations for such "fear of floating": exchange rate p...

  6. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

    Won-Am Park

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

  7. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  8. Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes, they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly, developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different

  9. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  10. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    This study recommends that the central monetary authority should institute policies that will minimize the magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of viable macroeconomic variables which have direct influence on exchange rate fluctuation. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Volatility, ...

  11. General and specific statistical properties of foreign exchange markets during a financial crash

    Li, Wei-Shen; Tsai, Yun-Jie; Shen, Yu-Hsien; Liaw, Sy-Sang

    2016-06-01

    We investigate minute-by-minute foreign exchange rate (FX) data of 14 currencies with different exchange-rate regimes during a financial crash, and divide these data into several stages according to their respective tendencies: depreciation stage (stage 1), fluctuating stage (stage 2), and appreciation stage (stage 3). The tail distribution of FX rate returns satisfies a power-law structure for different types of currencies. We find the absolute value of the power-law exponent is smaller in emerging markets than in developed markets, especially during the stage 1, and is greatest in pegged currencies. We also find that the correlation properties of the FX rate return series have quite disparate results among the various types of currencies. Currencies in developed markets respectively have weak persistence and anti-persistence in short and long timescales; whereas the pegged currencies and currencies in emerging markets show different degrees of anti-persistence in various timescales. Further analyses on the data in divided stages indicate that emerging markets and pegged currencies have more prominent dual fractal structures after the depreciation stage, while the developed markets do not. Hurst exponent analyses on the sign series yield similar results to that on the original return series for most currencies. The magnitude series of the returns provide some unique results during a crash. The developed market currencies have strong persistence and exhibit a weaker correlation in the depreciation and appreciation stages. In contrast, the currencies of emerging markets as well as pegged currencies fail to show such a transformation, but rather show a constant-correlation behavior in the corresponding stages of a crash. These results indicate that external shocks exert different degrees of influence during different stages of the crash in various markets.

  12. Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: the exchange rate as a shock absorber

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 5 (2015), s. 391-410 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : Czech Republic * exchange rates * sign restrictions Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1340_audzei.pdf

  13. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  14. Researching Online Foreign Language Interaction and Exchange: Theories, Methods and Challenges. Telecollaboration in Education. Volume 3

    Dooly, Melinda; O'Dowd, Robert

    2012-01-01

    This book provides an accessible introduction to some of the methods and theoretical approaches for investigating foreign language (FL) interaction and exchange in online environments. Research approaches which can be applied to Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) are outlined, followed by discussion of the way in which tools and techniques for…

  15. 76 FR 56103 - Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions; Conforming Changes to Existing Regulations in Response to...

    2011-09-12

    ... off-exchange foreign currency transactions with members of the retail public (i.e., retail forex... various provisions of the CEA as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act with respect to retail forex transactions... counterparty to a retail forex transaction under CEA Section 2(c)(2)(B) (``permitted counterparty''), which...

  16. The effect of net foreign assets on saving rate

    Ben David Nissim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Observing empirical data we find that many countries try to delay the decision of increasing saving rate in order to avoid a decrease of the living standards. However the delay leads a deterioration of countries financial stability. We present a simple theoretical model that connects between countries' saving rate and their net foreign assets. Using cross section data set of 135 countries in 2010 we estimated the econometric relation between saving rate in 2010 as dependent variable and two explanatory variables: the current account in 2010 and the aggregated current account during 1980-2010. Our findings show that industrial countries in a bad financial state tend to decrease their saving rate as external debt is larger causing to deterioration in external debt while countries with good financial state tend to increase their saving rate and the tendency increase as financial state becomes better. Only in countries with a very large external debt saving rate tends to grow. The results point that gross foreign debt will keep increasing and will worsen world financial state causing increased risk of getting into a world crisis.

  17. Tax Rate and Tax Base Competition for Foreign Direct Investment

    Peter Egger; Horst Raff

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that the large reduction in corporate tax rates and only gradual widening of tax bases in many countries over the last decades are consistent with tougher international competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). To make this point we develop a model in which governments compete for FDI using corporate tax rates and tax bases. The model’s predictions regarding the slope of policy reaction functions and the response of equilibrium tax parameters to trade costs and mark...

  18. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  19. Determining the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity – PPP

    Bangun WIDOYOKO

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the effect of inflation on the issue of exchange rate determination of the forward exchange rate on the exchange rate of RMB (Renminbi to Rupiah. Inflation has been chosen as an independent variable because of its close relation to PPP (purchasing power parity theory. Analyses in this research have used logistic analysis with time series data. The data that has been used include exchange rate data with the period 2007-2017 with a sample size of 132 data. The results of this study have shown that inflation is effective in determining the exchange rate.

  20. Increasing Stability in the Mix of Exchange-rate Policies.

    Mushin, Jerry

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate policy systems since 1996 and a comparison with the experience of 1978 to 1995. Exchange-rate policy has become more stable than it was in the earlier period. In addition, it has become polarized, with almost all countries choosing either a fixed exchange-rate regime (especially in low-GDP countries) or a floating exchange-rate regime (especially in high-GDP countries). Limited-flexibility exchange-rate systems have become unimpo...

  1. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  2. STATISTICS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN NIGERIA

    DJFLEX

    2009-02-11

    Feb 11, 2009 ... one of two ways: as units of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency; or ... the domestic currency and maintenance of healthy balance of payment. ..... Volatility and Nigeria's Agricultural Trade flows: A dynamic Analysis.

  3. "An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Currency Options with a Market Model of Interest Rates under Stochastic Volatility Processes of Spot Exchange Rates"

    Akihiko Takahashi; Kohta Takehara

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an asymptotic expansion scheme of currency options with a libor market model of interest rates and stochastic volatility models of spot exchange rates. In particular, we derive closed-form approximation formulas for the density functions of the underlying assets and for pricing currency options based on the third order asymptotic expansion scheme; we do not model a foreign exchange rate's variance such as in Heston[1993], but its volatility that follows a general time-inho...

  4. Exchange Rate Policy of Bangladesh: Not Floating Does Not Mean Sinking

    Dr Mirza Azizul Islam

    2003-01-01

    The paper analyses the current exchange rate policy of Bangladesh under various criteria and then assesses the feasibility of a floating rate regime under these various criteria. It looks at factors such as the involvement with international capital markets, share of trade with the country/countries with which the currency is pegged, and nature of shocks facing the economy, the willingness and feasibility of giving up control of its monetary policy and the level of international foreign curre...

  5. The impact of currency clause and exchange rate on Serbian economy

    Popov Đorđe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In nineties Serbia survived the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, intense UN sanctions, and 1999 78 days of bombing by NATO. This has resulted in a drop in production and hyperinflation. The confidence in the national currency the dinar has been lost. In order to do business in Serbia returned to normal framework the Law on Foreign Exchange imposed the possibility of nomination the loans in foreign currencies. This prompted the business, but it meant a de facto legalization of dual currency system. The logical consequence was the high degree of dollarization. It is important to mention that the dual currency system limited the possibilities of monetary policy of the National Bank of Serbia. Dollarization after the first positive results showed their expected bad sides. Appreciation of the dinar was one of the consequences. The trade deficit and foreign debt grew. Due to the appreciation production rate remained at 40% of its 1989 level, and unemployment has risen to 27%. The benefit of the appreciation had only importers and foreign-owned banks. They take out the capital abroad. Therefore, it is necessary to make changes to the Foreign Exchange Law and abolish foreign currency clause at least for a new loans.

  6. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  7. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...... the state of the market is not abnormally volatile. Our results are consistent with the notion that illiquidity arises when traders fear speculative pressure against the smaller currency and confirms the asymmetry hypothesis of our theoretical model....

  8. The study of RMB exchange rate complex networks based on fluctuation mode

    Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Ji-Nan; Zheng, Xu-Zhou; Liu, Xiao-Feng

    2015-10-01

    In the paper, we research on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series fluctuation with methods of symbolization and coarse gaining. First, based on fluctuation features of RMB exchange rate, we define the first type of fluctuation mode as one specific foreign currency against RMB in four days' fluctuating situations, and the second type as four different foreign currencies against RMB in one day's fluctuating situation. With the transforming method, we construct the unique-currency and multi-currency complex networks. Further, through analyzing the topological features including out-degree, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of fluctuation-mode complex networks, we find that the out-degree distribution of both types of fluctuation mode basically follows power-law distributions with exponents between 1 and 2. The further analysis reveals that the out-degree and the clustering coefficient generally obey the approximated negative correlation. With this result, we confirm previous observations showing that the RMB exchange rate exhibits a characteristic of long-range memory. Finally, we analyze the most probable transmission route of fluctuation modes, and provide probability prediction matrix. The transmission route for RMB exchange rate fluctuation modes exhibits the characteristics of partially closed loop, repeat and reversibility, which lays a solid foundation for predicting RMB exchange rate fluctuation patterns with large volume of data.

  9. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    Østrup, Finn

    a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  10. Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate

    Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The author assesses the impact of the Yuan exchange rate volatility on the indicators of the Russian-Chinese trade (the analysis is made on the ground of the statistical database CEIC. Quantitative estimates of changes in Russian-Chinese merchandise trade by commodity groups (in the HS classification due to the revaluation of the CNY against the USD were obtained via the regression analysis. In the case of the revaluation of the Yuan to the US dollar the value of Russian exports may increase for such commodity groups as mineral products, chemical industry products, base metals, precious stones and metals, and vehicles. This article shows that the value of Chinese imports will decrease for such merchandise groups as transport vehicles, machinery and equipment, leather industry products, non-precious metals and products from them; in this case, the import of the food industry products, mineral products and optical instruments will decrease insignificantly. The author concludes that the revaluation of the Yuan, contributing to the growth of Russian exports and the reduction in Chinese imports, will not cause a radical change in structure of the Russian-Chinese trade

  11. 17 CFR 1.1 - Fraud in or in connection with transactions in foreign currency subject to the Commodity Exchange...

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fraud in or in connection with... Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Definitions § 1.1 Fraud in or in connection with transactions in foreign currency subject to the...

  12. 26 CFR 1.1249-1 - Gain from certain sales or exchanges of patents, etc., to foreign corporations.

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Gain from certain sales or exchanges of patents... Capital Gains and Losses § 1.1249-1 Gain from certain sales or exchanges of patents, etc., to foreign corporations. (a) General rule. Section 1249 provides that if gain is recognized from the sale or exchange...

  13. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  14. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    Minh Thi Hong Le

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the panel data and, then, a GMM estimator is employed to ensure the consistency of the estimates. The results point out that the exchange rate exposure of these countries is asymmetric. At market level, for a rise in the exchange rate (or local currency depreciates, the average stock returns tend to decrease. However, due to the favourable impact of currency depreciation on the net export position, the reduction speed of stock returns is faster than the rising speed of the exchange rate.

  15. Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

    Christian Broda

    2002-01-01

    Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way tha...

  16. The Skill-Biased Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    Boris Kaiser; Michael Siegenthaler

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms' skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor prices and firms' competition intensity. Using panel data on Swiss manufacturers, we find that an appreciation increases high-skilled and reduces low-skilled employment in most firms, while total employment...

  17. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    Minh Thi Hong Le; Ha Thi Cam Huynh; Hong Thi Thu Dinh

    2017-01-01

    The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the...

  19. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given to the rationale for choosing one type of regime over another and how the variations in the nominal or real exchange rate affect the economies of these countries. This Ph.D. thesis is a combination ...

  20. Search for a new exchange-rate regime.

    Williamson, J

    1987-07-31

    The regime of unmanaged floating exchange rates was implicitly judged a failure when, with the Plaza Agreement, attempts at cooperative exchange-rate management were reintroduced primarily because of concern at the size of misalignments. Any satisfactory successor regime will need to limit misalignments while retaining the genuine social benefits of exchange-rate flexibility. It is argued that a system of target zones for exchange rates, ideally embedded in a more comprehensive set of guidelines for international economic policy coordination, could best reconcile these needs.

  1. De Facto Exchange Rate Regime in Korea: Is It Still A Dollar Peg?

    Han Geun Moon

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the common view on the actual exchange rate regime, using very simple but intuitive OLS regression models based on Frankel and Wei's work (1994. The results show that, firstly, East Asian countries including Korea have returned to the dollar peg or managed floating after the restoration from the crisis, as they did during the pre-crisis period. The results also show that Korea has substantially changed her exchange rate regime since January 2001, but other countries, even Taiwan and Singapore which had no crisis, are still the same as before. The sensitivity to the dollar has statistically significantly decreased, but sensitivity to the yen is almost twice as much as those in other countries. This result might come from the synchronization of Korean won with Japanese yen from November 2000, the change of the monetary policy framework from monetary targeting to the pure inflation targeting, and the full capital and foreign exchange liberalization since the second stage of foreign exchange liberalization (January 2001. However, 6 months (January 2001-June 15, 2001 is not enough to assess policy changes, and, we continuously need to monitor how the exchange rate policy evolves.

  2. Is It Possible To Use Intelligent Systems To Design A Profitable Foreign Exchange Trading Agent?

    Julian, Pomfret-Pudelsky

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a trading agent is developed using a basket of intelligent systems with the goal of trading the GBPUSD currency pair profitably in the Foreign Exchange market. The basket of intelligent system consists of two regression models: a radial basis neural network and a TSK-fuzzy inference system; and three classification models: k-nearest neighbour, support vector machine and a decision tree. The trading strategy combines the predictions of each model using a Kalman-type filter to...

  3. The Exchange Rate Adjustment Role in Imperfect Competition: the Case of the Czech Republic

    Filip Novotný

    2008-01-01

    One of the approaches to an international trade analysis is the assumption of prevailing imperfect competition where monopolistic firms determine prices of their production on segmented foreign markets. Based on aggregate data of quarterly financial indicators of non-financial enterprises, the hypothesis was tested whether producers based in the Czech Republic absorb nominal exchange rate fluctuations in their profit margins. Estimated results indicate that domestic private firms absorb a sub...

  4. Expansion of the public sector, the current account and the exchange rate

    Ohr, Renate

    1985-01-01

    Attributing the foreign trade effects of an expansion in the state budget to a single cause cannot do justice to the multitude of macro-economic interrelationships. Both theory and observation can reveal quite differing links between the public sector financial balance, the balance of payments and the exchange rate. The financing and nature of additional budgetary expenditure and the pattern of private investors’ expectations therefore have to be taken into consideration to obtain a clear pic...

  5. Surfing the money tides: understanding the foreign exchange market through metaphors.

    Oberlechner, Thomas; Slunecko, Thomas; Kronberger, Nicole

    2004-03-01

    This study describes metaphorical conceptualizations of the foreign exchange market held by market participants and examines how these metaphors socially construct the financial market. Findings are based on 55 semi-structured interviews with senior foreign exchange experts at banks and at financial news providers in Europe. We analysed interview transcripts by metaphor analysis, a method based on cognitive linguistics. Results indicate that market participants' understanding of financial markets revolves around seven metaphors, namely the market as a bazaar, as a machine, as gambling, as sports, as war, as a living being and as an ocean. Each of these metaphors highlights and conceals certain aspects of the foreign exchange market and entails a different set of implications on crucial market dimensions, such as the role of other market participants and market predictability. A correspondence analysis supports our assumption that metaphorical thinking corresponds with implicit assumptions about market predictability. A comparison of deliberately generated and implicitly used metaphors reveals notable differences. In particular, implicit metaphors are predominantly organic rather than mechanical. In contrast to academic models, interactive and organic metaphors, and not the machine metaphor, dominate the market accounts of participants.

  6. The performance of one belt and one road exchange rate: Based on improved singular spectrum analysis

    Lai, Lin; Guo, Kun

    2017-10-01

    ;One Belt and One Road; strategy in China is on push of foreign trade openness at northwest, southwest and northeast, absorption of the excess capacity and new support for economic increase. However, the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate with the countries along the road is unstable so related Chinese enterprises will face high risk of exchange rate. Precise explanation or prediction for exchange rate has been the challengeable hop point in the international finance. This paper decomposed the One Belt One Road Exchange Rate Index (OBORR) and the RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (CNYX) into trend term, market fluctuation term and noise term using improved singular spectrum analysis (SSA). It turns out that the increasing velocity of OBORR is greater than that of CNYX in the long term, and there is dynamic lead-lag structure in the medium term. In the short term, the fluctuation range and frequency of OBORR are greater than those of CNYX, which means there will be more exchange rate risks in One Belt and One Road countries.

  7. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  8. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  9. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  10. Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe; Param Silvapulle

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical n...

  11. The Advantage of Hiding Both Hands : Foreign Exchange Intervention, Ambiguity and Private Information

    Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Verhagen, W.H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes a dynamic exchange rate policy game in which the central bank has private information about its short-term exchange rate target, on the one hand, and in which the market is faced with a certain degree of ambiguity concerning the actual intervention volume, on the other.

  12. Investigating the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on Tehran Stock Exchange

    Younos Vakil Alroaia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of two macroeconomic factors; namely exchange rate and liquidity on stock index. The proposed study was applied in Iran and on major index of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2001-2011. They reported that the currency exchange maintained negative impact on stock exchange for the period of investigation. This is due to the fact that when currency devalued, working capital decreases and firms did not enough money to purchase raw materials, pay wages, etc. In addition, liquidity marinated a direct and positive relationship with exchange index. However, the impact of liquidity seems to be bigger than currency exchange.

  13. Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

    A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

  14. The Evolution of Foreign Exchange Markets in the Context of Global Crisis

    Mariana Trandafir

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The FX market is the world’s largest financial market. The global financial systeminvolves effective and efficient exchange of currencies. Corporations and investors participate in themarket for operational needs: to reduce risk by hedging currency exposures; to convert their returnsfrom international investments into domestic currencies and to make cross-border investments andraise finance outside home markets. Central banks participate in the market. This paper analyzesforeign exchange marketsactivity before and under the condition the global crisis. The method ofresearch is the comparative analysis used on the global and European level. The research is importantand actual because it reveals the changeswhich have defined a new paradigm forthe foreignexchange marketsand which contributed to the increasing of the global foreign exchange marketturnover during the global crisis. The main conclusion of the paper is that the innovativedevelopments in electronic trading technology and institutional trading arrangements are behind theevolution of the foreign exchange markets. The analysis is supported by statistical tables and uses therecent officialBank for International Settlements and European Central Bank statistic databases.

  15. IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN CONTEMPORARY VIETNAM

    The Dong Phung

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the issue of effectiveness of exchange rate policy in contemporary Vietnam, along with the assessment of the mechanism of this policy from 1989 to the present day. The author analyzes constraints of implementing the exchange rate policy in the past and gives recommendations aimed at improving its efficiency nowadays.

  16. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria. ... The overall results confirmed that in most cases, the lagged values of exchange rate devaluation had a significant and positive relationship with agricultural export commodities but of a higher magnitude in the Total agricultural ...

  17. Exchange rate volatility and regime change: a Visegrad comparison

    Kočenda, Evžen; Valachy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2006), s. 727-753 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : exchange rate s * exchange rate regime s * volatility Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.07.003

  18. Unpredictable After All? A short note on exchange rate predictability

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractEarlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including

  19. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  20. Testing for Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Price-Volume Relations of Taiwan's Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets

    Shyh-Wei Chen; Chun-Wei Chen

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the price-volume relationships of Taiwan's stock and foreign exchange markets. We first adopt the traditional linear Granger causality test to achieve this goal. In addition, the nonlinearity feature is also taken into account. We employ the nonlinear Granger causality test, championed by Hiemstra and Jones (1994), to detect the nonlinear relationships among stock and foreign exchange markets. The empirical results show that there do exist nonlinear price-volume relati...

  1. 75 FR 3281 - Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries

    2010-01-20

    ... members of the retail public (i.e., ``retail forex transactions''). The Commodity Exchange Act, as amended... forex transactions offered by NFA's members. Additionally, the Proposal would amend existing regulations... forex. \\1\\ Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008, Pub. L. 110-246, 122 Stat. 1651, 2189-2204 (2008...

  2. 75 FR 55409 - Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries

    2010-09-10

    ... currency with members of the retail public (i.e., ``retail forex transactions''). The new regulations and... in detail the historical background of the regulation of retail forex transactions, and the events... between forex firms and retail customers on the other hand.\\5\\ \\3\\ Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail...

  3. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.

  4. Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

    Marcin Gruszczyński

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively. Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously. Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.

  5. Impact of exchange rates on the world uranium market

    Fulton, M.E.; Combs, G.F. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A preliminary analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and US uranium prices and product ion is presented. This analysis supplements the discussions on the broader topic of fuel prices, exchange rates and other international economic phenomena scheduled during the 1985 EPRI Fuel Supply Seminar. By varying exchange rate assumptions in the recently developed Uranium Market Model, estimates of the magnitude and timing of price and production effects were obtained. These effects do indeed appear to be large and have implications in procurement, fuel planning and commodity policy. While analysts may differ on details, the inescapable conclusion is that exchange rates matter a great deal in the uranium market. The case described is for a scenario of exchange rates with other currencies returning to their 1980 levels. A second case, an across the board weakening of the dollar by 25%, the results of which are somewhat less dramatic is also examined

  6. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1......A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  7. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  8. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; van Veen, T.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  9. The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members : Evidence from real exchange rates

    Candelon, B.; Kool, C.J.M.; Raabe, K.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate fundamental bilateral real exchange rates for a group of eight accession countries using a panel-cointegration approach for the period 1993-2003. We document a significant positive link between productivity levels and the corresponding real exchange rate levels. Future

  10. Economic fluctuations in a small economy with two productive sectors under a floating exchange rate regime

    José Ustorgio Mora Mora

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a theoretical model of aggregate supply and demand in a small economy with two productive sectors, under a flexible exchange regime and imperfect capital mobility. Only one of the production sectors is assumed to produce an exportable commodity sold at world market prices, while the production of the other sector is assumed to supply the domestic market. This model helps to explain how the impact of both domestic (economic policy, productivity, etc. and foreign (changes in exchange terms shocks is spread. In every case studied, results show that real output increases consistently with those cases postulated by economic theory. Conversely, the effects on the price level, the exchange rate and the real interest rate are ambiguous. In terms of domestic shocks, fiscal or monetary policy may be seen as a way to stabilize or stimulate the economy but the costs involved raise the price level.

  11. Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Relationship in BRIC-T Countries

    Selim KAYHAN; Tayfur BAYAT; Ahmet UGUR

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the dynamic relationships between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the BRIC-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey) countries by employing monthly data from the beginning of flexible exchange rate regime to July 2011. For this aim, non-linear causality test and frequency domain causality test approaches are used. According to frequency domain causality test results, interest rate affects exchange rate in only China and this effect exist only in the ...

  12. Price dscovery in the foreign exchange markets with dfferentially informed traders

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Mahieu, R.; Schotman, P.; Leeuwen, I.

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses Reuters exchange rate data to investigate thecontributions to the price discovery process by individual banks in theforeign exchange market. We propose multivariate time series models aswell as models in tick time to study the dynamic relations between thequotes of individual banks.

  13. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  14. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

  15. Determination of the Optimal Exchange Rate Via Control of the Domestic Interest Rate in Nigeria

    Virtue U. Ekhosuehi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An economic scenario has been considered where the government seeks to achieve a favourable balance-of-payments over a fixed planning horizon through exchange rate policy and control of the domestic interest rate. The dynamics of such an economy was considered in terms of a bounded optimal control problem where the exchange rate is the state variable and the domestic interest rate is the control variable. The idea of balance-of-payments was used as a theoretical underpinning to specify the objective function. By assuming that, changes in exchange rates were induced by two effects: the impact of the domestic interest rate on the exchange rate and the exchange rate system adopted by the government. Instances for both fixed and flexible optimal exchange rate regimes have been determined. The use of the approach has been illustrated employing data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN statistical bulletin. (original abstract

  16. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  17. Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

    Anung Yoga Anindhita

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

  18. China’s Exchange Rate Policy: A Double Edged Sword

    2013-12-01

    market.10 These four characteristics allowed the East Asian countries of Japan, Taiwan , and South Korea to develop at exponential rates for decades. This...EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Chapter II provides background on important factors affecting China’s exchange rate policy, as well as an overview of its...include telecommunications, tourism , hospitality, 51 World’s Richest Countries, “Top Ten Chinese

  19. Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    Eaton, Jonathan; Turnovsky, Stephen J.

    1981-01-01

    A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state th...

  20. Exchange rate regimes and inflation: Evidence from India.

    Mohanty, Biswajit; Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a `policy discipline effect'- restricting money supply growth, and a `credibility effect'- inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the impossibility trillema predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a mo...

  1. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  2. Exchange rate determination and the flaws of mainstream monetary theory

    HEINER FLASSBECK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Developing countries in general need flexibility and a sufficient number of instruments to prevent excessive volatility. Evidence does not support the orthodox belief that, with free floating, international financial markets will perform that role by smoothly adjusting exchange rates to their “equilibrium” level. In reality, exchange rates under a floating regime have proved to be highly unstable, leading to long spells of misalignment. The experience with hard pegs has not been satisfactory either: the exchange rate could not be corrected in cases of external shocks or misalignment. Given this experience, “intermediate” regimes are preferable when there is instability in international financial markets.

  3. Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness

    Ionel Bostan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study is meant to be an evaluation sustained by theoretical and empirical considerations of the exchange rate impact on international commercial trade competitiveness. In this respect, the study aims to find how the exchange rate influences Romanian competitiveness through assessing the effects generated on exports and imports. The main purpose of the study is to assess the complex action of the exchange rate on international commercial trade competitiveness in contemporaneity and the connections between these variables. The empirical part contains a regression analysis where exports and imports are dependent variables influenced by a series of determinants.

  4. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  5. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia

    Firman Mochtar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006 approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007, two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.

  6. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  7. Relationship between indoor radon concentrations and air exchange rate

    Wang Jingshu; Liu Yuyu; Yao Xiaohua; Meng Jianfeng; Zhang Yongyi; Wang Xiaohe; Yu Xiufen.

    1995-01-01

    The indoor concentration of radon and the air exchange rate were simultaneously measured in four empty rooms, made of brick and cement, which were located in different floors of dwelling houses in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China. SF 6 tracer gas decay method was used to measure the air exchange rate. Indoor radon was collected with the dimembrane method. When the ventilation rate increased, the concentration of radon dropped rapidly. Regression analysis indicated that the indoor concentration of radon was equal to the outdoor level of radon when the air exchange rate was greater than 3-4. SF 6 decay method was an effective and convenient method for measuring the air exchange rate. There was no marked difference in measurements obtained in different locations of a room. (N.K.)

  8. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    JOSIFIDIS, Kosta; PUCAR, Emilija Beker; SUPIĆ, Novica

    2010-01-01

    The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former) transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, a...

  9. Managing India's Foreign Exchange Reserve: A preliminary exploration of issues and options

    Chaisse, Julien; Chakraborty, Debashis; Mukherjee, Jaydeep

    2010-01-01

    Since mid-nineties, India’s foreign exchange reserves (FER) – both nominal and real adjusted for price level – started growing considerably and reached a new peak of US$ 251985 million in 2008-09. The fact that such unprecedented accumulation of FER build-up has materialized despite India's balance of payment on its current account being mostly negative, has raised debates on the major potential challenges for Indian Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), in case they come to existence. Using the two m...

  10. The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market

    Staněk, F.; Kukačka, Jiří

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 4 (2018), s. 865-892 ISSN 0927-7099 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 588912; GA MŠk(CZ) SVV260233 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Tobin tax * Foreign exchange market * Agent-based modeling * Walrasian auctioneer Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kukacka-0472380.pdf

  11. Intra-day response of foreign exchange markets after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    Nakano, Shuhei; Hirata, Yoshito; Iwayama, Koji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-02-01

    Although an economy is influenced by a natural disaster, the market response to the disaster during the first 24 hours is not clearly understood. Here we show that an earthquake quickly causes temporal changes in a foreign exchange market by examining the case of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Recurrence plots and statistical change point detection independently show that the United States dollar-Japanese yen market responded to the earthquake activity without delay and with the delay of about 2 minutes, respectively. These findings support that the efficient market hypothesis nearly holds now in the time scale of minutes.

  12. Foreign Exchange Exposure of A Selected Number of Swedish Multinationals : The Capital Market Approach

    Shudzeka, Basile N; Kum, Hyceinth N.

    2007-01-01

    This research work analyses the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm value. It is based on a sample of 10 Swedish multinational companies selected from two market capitalization segments (Mid and Large Cap) according to the OMX index classification. A multiple linear regression model is used to explore the dependency of the log returns (continuously compounded returns) of each of the sampled companies to the percentage changes in the spot exchange rates for the SEK/U.S. Dollar and SEK...

  13. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  14. Rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water.

    Kaneko, Masanori; Poulson, Simon R

    2012-04-17

    The rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water was investigated at conditions of 10 to 80 °C and pH -0.6 to 4.4. Oxygen isotope exchange proceeds as a first-order reaction, and the exchange rate is strongly affected by reaction temperature and pH, with increased rates of isotope exchange at higher temperature and lower pH. Selenate speciation (HSeO(4)(-) vs SeO(4)(2-)) also has a significant effect on the rate of isotope exchange. The half-life for isotope exchange at example natural conditions (25 °C and pH 7) is estimated to be significantly in excess of 10(6) years. The very slow rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water under most environmental conditions demonstrates that selenate-δ(18)O signatures produced by biogeochemical processes will be preserved and hence that it will be possible to use the value of selenate-δ(18)O to investigate the biogeochemical behavior of selenate, in an analogous fashion to the use of sulfate-δ(18)O to study the biogeochemical behavior of sulfate.

  15. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  16. Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy on Agricultural Trade in Nigeria ...

    International Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development ... this study was to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on agricultural trade in Nigeria. ... Government support to farmers in the form of credit and input subsidies is a veritable ...

  17. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  18. Exchange Rate Regime and External Adjustment in CEE Countries

    Jacek Pietrucha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews effects of exchange rate regime's choice for adjustments processes in current accounts (CA in the Central and Eastern Europe countries between 2008-2012. During the period of global financial crisis, Poland may be treated as a handbook example of the reaction of floating exchange rate to shock and adjustments in the form of expenditure switching. However, the Polish experience is not typical among the Central and Eastern Europe countries. There is no evidence for the positive role of floating exchange rate in macroeconomic adjustments after the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe countries which belong to EU. The adjustments in the countries with fixed regimes were fast and deep. The real exchange rate decreased and export, CA and goods and services balance improved, development distance against EU countries was reduced. However, the experience of Baltic countries, which have internal devaluation, should be very carefully conveyed to other countries.

  19. Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Won/Dollar and Won/Yen Exchange Rates

    Donghwan Oh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines, using various models including a non-linear one, that the Balassa-Samuelson (BS effect can account for the persistence of deviations from PPP in the long-run movements of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rates. In test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using the generalized Johansen' cointegration method, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and the productivity variables of two countries. And in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates other fundamentals such as cumulative current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, terms of trade as well as productivity differentials, using a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and all of these fundamentals. However, the plus sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity differentials variable, which means that domestic productivity improvement produces increase in each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate is not coincident with the result that the BS effect expects theoretically. Finally, in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using a non-linear STAR model, it is found that the adjustment process in case of won/dollar real exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level can be adequately explained by a non-linear LSTAR model. But, the evidence of diagnostic statistics, which shows the existence of autocorrelation of the residuals in most of lags, might suggest the inadequacy of LSTAR model specification.

  20. MANAGED FLOAT EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE

    HOE EE KHOR; JASON LEE; EDWARD ROBINSON; SAKTIANDI SUPAAT

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the key characteristics of Singapore's exchange rate-centered monetary policy; in particular, its managed float regime which incorporates key features of the basket, band and crawl system popularized by Williamson (1998, 1999). We assess how the flexibility accorded by this framework has been advantageous in facilitating adjustment to various shocks to the economy. A characterization of the countercyclical nature of Singapore's exchange rate policy is also offered, with re...

  1. Trade Openness And Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence

    César Calderón

    2004-01-01

    A recent strand of the literature, the so-called “New Open Economy Macroeconomics”, argues that nonmonetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility. In this context, it has been suggested the inclusion of shocks to productivity, terms of trade, and government spending, among others. The goal of the present paper is to explain the real exchange rate volatility by positing a structural relationship between volatility and its determinants. To perform our task we col...

  2. Productivity Demand Shocks And Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

    Ordean Olson

    2011-01-01

    The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate significant relationships for the Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. Only when a...

  3. Real Effective Exchange Rate Dynamics in Malawi and South Africa

    Kisu Simwaka

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship between real effective exchange rate and explanatory variables. Having ascertained that almost all variiables are integrated of order one and cointegrated, an error correction model is formulated and es...

  4. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  5. Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields

    Richard H. Clarida

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a structural relationship between the nominal exchange rate, national price levels, and observed yields on long maturity inflation - indexed bonds. This relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value of the exchange rate that will prevail in any model or real world economy in which inflation indexed bonds are traded. An advantage of our derivation is that it does not require restrictive assumptions on financial market equilibrium to be operational. We take our t...

  6. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  7. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  8. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  9. Targeting the Real Exchange Rate; Theory and Evidence

    Carlos A. Végh Gramont; Guillermo Calvo; Carmen Reinhart

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the mo...

  10. How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?

    Helene Poirson Ward

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate),...

  11. Exchange rate based stabilization : tales from Europe and Latin America

    Ades, Alberto F.; Kiguel, Miguel; Liviatan, Nissan

    1993-01-01

    There is convincing empirical evidence that the cycle for exchange-rate-based disinflation in high-inflation Latin American economies typically begins with expansion and ends in recession - a surprising pattern. The authors explore whether a similar cycle can be observed in exchange-rate-based disinflation in low-inflation economies. They draw on empirical evidence from stabilizaton programs in three European countries in the early 1980s: in Denmark (1982), Ireland (1982), and France (1983). ...

  12. International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets

    Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis eight Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan) over the period 1993:01-2012:11, and estimating a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model. We find that net equity (bond) inflows drive the exchange rate to a high (low) volatility state. ...

  13. Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies

    Hernandez-Verme, Paula

    2002-01-01

    Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist infla...

  14. Exchange market pressure

    Jager, H.; Klaassen, F.; Durlauf, S.N.; Blume, L.E.

    2010-01-01

    Currencies can be under severe pressure in the foreign exchange market, but in a fixed (or managed) exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate. Exchange market pressure (EMP) is a concept developed to nevertheless measure the pressure in such cases. This

  15. Problems related to the foreign exchange earnings of Surinam's shrimp industry

    Pottier, D.

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available The shrimp grounds of Surinam are actually fully exploited by some 136 trawlers of the Florida type, ranging from 100 to 130 GRT. Through export and import levies and fishing licence fees the country was able to obtain a small piece of the foreign currency cake. The Republic of Surinam has been looking for means to increase the benefits from its shrimp business. The alleged huge profits made by foreign vessels inspired the country to invest in a national shrimp fleet and man it with national crew (SUGAM. For reasons explained in the text Sugam has difficultes to operate with a gain. This paper will review Sugam's attempt to earn hard currency. An analysis is made of the foreign exchange earnings of Sugam and is compared with the results of a Korean company. The main conclusions are as follows : shrimp exploitation in a fully exploited Exclusive Economic Zone can only be brought to success by fishermen of proven ability. Each vessel should make trips lasting from 45 to 60 days and be some 280 days at sea per year. Surinam should also reconsider its present policy of shrimp purchasing.

  16. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  17. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  18. Dutch courage? Effects of acute alcohol consumption on self-ratings and observer ratings of foreign language skills.

    Renner, Fritz; Kersbergen, Inge; Field, Matt; Werthmann, Jessica

    2018-01-01

    A popular belief is that alcohol improves the ability to speak in a foreign language. The effect of acute alcohol consumption on perceived foreign language performance and actual foreign language performance in foreign language learners has not been investigated. The aim of the current study was to test the effects of acute alcohol consumption on self-rated and observer-rated verbal foreign language performance in participants who have recently learned this language. Fifty native German speakers who had recently learned Dutch were randomized to receive either a low dose of alcohol or a control beverage that contained no alcohol. Following the experimental manipulation, participants took part in a standardized discussion in Dutch with a blinded experimenter. The discussion was audio-recorded and foreign language skills were subsequently rated by two native Dutch speakers who were blind to the experimental condition (observer-rating). Participants also rated their own individual Dutch language skills during the discussion (self-rating). Participants who consumed alcohol had significantly better observer-ratings for their Dutch language, specifically better pronunciation, compared with those who did not consume alcohol. However, alcohol had no effect on self-ratings of Dutch language skills. Acute alcohol consumption may have beneficial effects on the pronunciation of a foreign language in people who have recently learned that language.

  19. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility

    Guillermo Calvo; Carlos A. Végh Gramont

    1991-01-01

    This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout th...

  20. A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

    Ozlem Aytac

    2008-01-01

    The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...

  1. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Klára Plecitá; Luboš Střelec

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with ...

  2. Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

    Takatoshi Ito; Kiyotaka Sato

    2006-01-01

    Macroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objec...

  3. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  4. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  5. Exchange rate behavior with negative interest rates: Some early negative observations

    Hameed, Allaudeen S.; Rose, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines exchange rate behavior during the recent period with negative nominal interest rates. We use a daily panel of data on 61 currencies from January 2010 through May 2016, during which five economies - Denmark, the European Economic and Monetary Union, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland - experienced negative nominal interest rates. We examine both effective exchange rates and bilateral rates; the latter typically measured against the Swiss franc since Switzerland has had the long...

  6. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011

    Tania Nadiezhda Plascencia Cuevas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two periods for certain, helping it to predict the maximum losses that may be, with the main motivation to have a efficient hedging strategy. The principal conclusion is that assessing risk with these methodologies, the series does not necessarily have to include more than five years, considering that the use of copulas as a dependent measure make that the prediction fits better to the movements of the real returns.

  7. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  8. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  9. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    Lin Zhenquan; Ye Gaoxiang; Ke Jianhong

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikj υ , and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution a k (t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function Φ(x) = exp (x).

  10. Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes

    Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.

    2007-01-01

    This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange r...

  11. Implied and Local Volatility Surfaces for South African Index and Foreign Exchange Options

    Antonie Kotzé

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Certain exotic options cannot be valued using closed-form solutions or even by numerical methods assuming constant volatility. Many exotics are priced in a local volatility framework. Pricing under local volatility has become a field of extensive research in finance, and various models are proposed in order to overcome the shortcomings of the Black-Scholes model that assumes a constant volatility. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE lists exotic options on its Can-Do platform. Most exotic options listed on the JSE’s derivative exchanges are valued by local volatility models. These models needs a local volatility surface. Dupire derived a mapping from implied volatilities to local volatilities. The JSE uses this mapping in generating the relevant local volatility surfaces and further uses Monte Carlo and Finite Difference methods when pricing exotic options. In this document we discuss various practical issues that influence the successful construction of implied and local volatility surfaces such that pricing engines can be implemented successfully. We focus on arbitrage-free conditions and the choice of calibrating functionals. We illustrate our methodologies by studying the implied and local volatility surfaces of South African equity index and foreign exchange options.

  12. The determinants of exchange rates and the movements of EUR/RON exchange rate via non-linear stochastic processes

    Petrică Andreea-Cristina

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the

  13. Empirical Correction for Differences in Chemical Exchange Rates in Hydrogen Exchange-Mass Spectrometry Measurements.

    Toth, Ronald T; Mills, Brittney J; Joshi, Sangeeta B; Esfandiary, Reza; Bishop, Steven M; Middaugh, C Russell; Volkin, David B; Weis, David D

    2017-09-05

    A barrier to the use of hydrogen exchange-mass spectrometry (HX-MS) in many contexts, especially analytical characterization of various protein therapeutic candidates, is that differences in temperature, pH, ionic strength, buffering agent, or other additives can alter chemical exchange rates, making HX data gathered under differing solution conditions difficult to compare. Here, we present data demonstrating that HX chemical exchange rates can be substantially altered not only by the well-established variables of temperature and pH but also by additives including arginine, guanidine, methionine, and thiocyanate. To compensate for these additive effects, we have developed an empirical method to correct the hydrogen-exchange data for these differences. First, differences in chemical exchange rates are measured by use of an unstructured reporter peptide, YPI. An empirical chemical exchange correction factor, determined by use of the HX data from the reporter peptide, is then applied to the HX measurements obtained from a protein of interest under different solution conditions. We demonstrate that the correction is experimentally sound through simulation and in a proof-of-concept experiment using unstructured peptides under slow-exchange conditions (pD 4.5 at ambient temperature). To illustrate its utility, we applied the correction to HX-MS excipient screening data collected for a pharmaceutically relevant IgG4 mAb being characterized to determine the effects of different formulations on backbone dynamics.

  14. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  15. Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates

    Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2007-09-01

    Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.

  16. Accelerated electron exchange between U4+ and UO22+ by foreign metal ions

    Obanawa, Heiichiro; Onitsuka, Hatsuki; Takeda, Kunihiko

    1990-01-01

    The rate constant of U 4+ -UO 2 2+ electron exchange (k et ) was increased by more than 100 times in the presence of various metal ions. The larger rate constant was observed for the smaller difference of the standard reduction potential strength between metal ion and UO 2 2+ ion (Δμ θ e ). Detailed investigation of the electron exchange reaction in the presence of Mo 5+ suggested that the mechanism of the electron transfer reaction catalyzed by metal ions is the outer-sphere type independent of U-Clcomplex ions. (author)

  17. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  18. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  19. Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

    Fernandez, Viviana

    2007-04-01

    Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

  20. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  1. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  2. Stay Rates of Foreign Doctorate Recipients from U.S. Universities, 2013

    Finn, Michael G. [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pennington, Leigh Ann [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study estimates the stay rate of foreign nationals who receive doctorates in science and engineering from U.S. universities. Stay rates are estimated using tax records in a way that does not violate individual confidentiality. The 2013 stay rate for all foreign doctorate recipients, including those on permanent visas at graduation, was 70 percent for those graduating 5 years earlier, and 62 percent for those graduating 10 years earlier.

  3. Foreign exchange market microstructure and the WM/Reuters 4 pm fix

    P.S. Michelberger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A market fix serves as a benchmark for foreign exchange (FX execution, and is employed by many institutional investors to establish an exact reference at which execution takes place. The currently most popular FX fix is the World Market Reuters (WM/R 4 pm fix. Execution at the WM/R 4 pm fix is a service offered by FX brokers (normally banks, who deliver execution at the fix provided they obtain the trade order ahead of time. In this paper, we study the market microstructure around 4 pm. We demonstrate that market dynamics can be distinguished from other times during the day through increased volatility and size of movements. Our findings question the aggregate benefit to the client base of using the WM/R 4 pm fix in its current form.

  4. Modeling foreign exchange market activity around macroeconomic news: Hawkes-process approach

    Rambaldi, Marcello; Pennesi, Paris; Lillo, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    We present a Hawkes-model approach to the foreign exchange market in which the high-frequency price dynamics is affected by a self-exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is able to capture the increase of trading activity after the news, both when the news has a sizable effect on volatility and when this effect is negligible, either because the news in not important or because the announcement is in line with the forecast by analysts. We extend the model by considering noncausal effects, due to the fact that the existence of the news (but not its content) is known by the market before the announcement.

  5. A MODEL OF HETEROGENEOUS DISTRIBUTED SYSTEM FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

    Dragutin Kermek

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the design of heterogeneous distributed system for foreign exchange portfolio analysis. The proposed model includes few separated and dislocated but connected parts through distributed mechanisms. Making system distributed brings new perspectives to performance busting where software based load balancer gets very important role. Desired system should spread over multiple, heterogeneous platforms in order to fulfil open platform goal. Building such a model incorporates different patterns from GOF design patterns, business patterns, J2EE patterns, integration patterns, enterprise patterns, distributed design patterns to Web services patterns. The authors try to find as much as possible appropriate patterns for planned tasks in order to capture best modelling and programming practices.

  6. Currency crises and the evolution of foreign exchange market: Evidence from minimum spanning tree

    Jang, Wooseok; Lee, Junghoon; Chang, Woojin

    2011-02-01

    We examined the time series properties of the foreign exchange market for 1990-2008 in relation to the history of the currency crises using the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach and made several meaningful observations about the MST of currencies. First, around currency crises, the mean correlation coefficient between currencies decreased whereas the normalized tree length increased. The mean correlation coefficient dropped dramatically passing through the Asian crisis and remained at the lowered level after that. Second, the Euro and the US dollar showed a strong negative correlation after 1997, implying that the prices of the two currencies moved in opposite directions. Third, we observed that Asian countries and Latin American countries moved away from the cluster center (USA) passing through the Asian crisis and Argentine crisis, respectively.

  7. 26 CFR 1.905-5T - Foreign tax redeterminations and currency translation rules for foreign tax redeterminations...

    2010-04-01

    ... the rate of exchange for the date of the payment of the foreign tax. Refunds of such taxes shall be translated into dollars at the rate of exchange for the date of the refund. (2) Foreign taxes deemed paid on... actual distribution and refunds of such taxes shall be translated into dollars at the rate of exchange...

  8. Currency wars, what drives the wild fluctuations in exchange rates?

    Petridis, George; Πετρίδης, Γεώργιος

    2016-01-01

    Currency wars or competitive devaluation has change dramatically throughout history. The meaning of currency wars is completely different in comparison with that before the change of currency rates system. Firstly, in my thesis, there will be a brief history of currency wars and a reference of quantitative easing in US, Europe and Japan. Then the factors which determine the currency exchange rates and the reasons for the wild fluctuation in currency rates during a currency war will be mention...

  9. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  10. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  11. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  12. Exchange rate policy when the labour market exhibits hysteresis

    Barry, Frank

    1994-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate shocks in a small open economy whose labor market exhibits hysteresis. The model is used to highlight deficiencies in the response of the Irish authorities to exchange rate crisis of 1992/93. A secondary purpose of the paper, though, is to induce those who accept that the Irish labour market is characterised by hysteresis but who reject the argument made here that a more aggressive devaluation should have been pursued, to spell out the labour-m...

  13. Exchange rate volatility effects on export competitiveness. Romanian Case

    Anca GHERMAN

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we determine and analyze the impact of the exchange rate variation over the international trade of Romania. We highlighted the sense of the relationship between exchange rate and exports or imports, but the intensity between the variables and the lags that characterize the interdependency between them. In the context of actual great imbalances in the global economy and other risks (financial, political or social that drive to the decrease in aggregate demand on global level, we consider that external competitivity became one of the key variable for the economic growth in Romania like an integrated process in the European economy.

  14. EXCHANGE RATE DIFFERENCES-THE ACCOUNTING TREATMENT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AN ECONOMIC ENTITY

    Nicoleta Cristina MATEI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Currency rate differences arise when there are certain debt rights or obligations in foreign currency of an economic entity which are collected, i.e. paid for at a different course from the one displayed by the Romanian National Bank on the date of their establishment. Such differences, according to the situation, generate expenditure or revenue which affects a company's financial result and, consequently, the accountant result as well. The results registered by an economic entity presented in the Profit and Loss Account provide information about its financial performance. This performance can be influenced by the favorable or unfavorable exchange rate differences existing when an economic entity carries out transactions or has incurred foreign currency loans having a significant share in the total amount of transactions or in capitals. The present paper shows the accounting treatment of the exchange rate differences and its impact on the financial performance.

  15. Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

    Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

    2006-10-01

    Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

  16. THE POLICY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE PROMOTED BY NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS UPON THE FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Chifane Cristina

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The more profound world economic crisis has strongly marked the evolution of the Romanian financial system. The size of current account deficit, the relatively high external financing needs and the dependence of the banks on it, the high ratio between loans in foreign currency and deposits in foreign currency made of the Romanian economy, a risky destination for investors. In these conditions, since the end of 2008 and throughout 2009, the government's economic program was focused on reducing the external deficit in both public and private sector, on minimizing the effects of recession, on avoiding a crisis of the exchange rate and on cooling the inflationary pressures.

  17. Exchange rates of creatine kinase metabolites: feasibility of imaging creatine by chemical exchange saturation transfer MRI.

    Haris, Mohammad; Nanga, Ravi Prakash Reddy; Singh, Anup; Cai, Kejia; Kogan, Feliks; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-11-01

    Creatine (Cr), phosphocreatine (PCr) and adenosine-5-triphosphate (ATP) are major metabolites of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK). The exchange rate of amine protons of CK metabolites at physiological conditions has been limited. In the current study, the exchange rate and logarithmic dissociation constant (pKa) of amine protons of CK metabolites were calculated. Further, the chemical exchange saturation transfer effect (CEST) of amine protons of CK metabolites with bulk water was explored. At physiological temperature and pH, the exchange rate of amine protons in Cr was found to be 7-8 times higher than PCr and ATP. A higher exchange rate in Cr was associated with lower pKa value, suggesting faster dissociation of its amine protons compared to PCr and ATP. CEST MR imaging of these metabolites in vitro in phantoms displayed predominant CEST contrast from Cr and negligible contribution from PCr and ATP with the saturation pulse parameters used in the current study. These results provide a new method to perform high-resolution proton imaging of Cr without contamination from PCr. Potential applications of these finding are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

  19. Extreme returns and the contagion effect between the foreign exchange and the stock market: Evidence from Cyprus

    Bekiros, S.D.; Georgoutsos, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article we apply the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the correlation of extreme returns for two inherently unstable markets; the foreign exchange and the stock market. We also derive the corresponding VaR estimates from more 'traditional' methods

  20. Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

    Veestraeten, D.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage