Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

Flash Flood Type Identification within Catchments in Beijing Mountainous Area

Science.gov (United States)

Nan, W.

2017-12-01

Flash flood is a common type of disaster in mountainous area, Flash flood with the feature of large flow rate, strong flushing force, destructive power, has periodically caused loss to life and destruction to infrastructure in mountainous area. Beijing as China's political, economic and cultural center, the disaster prevention and control work in Beijing mountainous area has always been concerned widely. According to the transport mechanism, sediment concentration and density, the flash flood type identification within catchment can provide basis for making the hazards prevention and mitigation policy. Taking Beijing as the study area, this paper extracted parameters related to catchment morphological and topography features respectively. By using Bayes discriminant, Logistic regression and Random forest, the catchments in Beijing mountainous area were divided into water floods process, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flows process. The results found that Logistic regression analysis showed the highest accuracy, with the overall accuracy of 88.2%. Bayes discriminant and Random forest had poor prediction effects. This study confirmed the ability of morphological and topography features to identify flash flood process. The circularity ratio, elongation ratio and roughness index can be used to explain the flash flood types effectively, and the Melton ratio and elevation relief ratio also did a good job during the identification, whereas the drainage density seemed not to be an issue at this level of detail. Based on the analysis of spatial patterns of flash flood types, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flow process were the dominant hazards, while the pure water flood process was much less. The catchments dominated by fluvial sediment transport process were mainly distributed in the Yan Mountain region, where the fault belts were relatively dense. The debris flow process prone to occur in the Taihang Mountain region thanks to the abundant

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with

Flash flood disasters analysis and evaluation: a case study of Yiyang County in China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haichen; Zhang, Xiaolei; Li, Qing; Qin, Tao; Lei, Xiaohui

2018-03-01

Global climate change leads to the more extreme precipitation and more flash flood disasters, which is a serious threat to the mountain inhabitants. To prevent flash flood disasters, China started flash flood disaster control planning and other projects from 2006. Among those measures, non-engineering measures are effective and economical. This paper introduced the framework of flash flood disaster analysis and evaluation in China, followed by a case study of Yiyang County.

Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

2018-01-01

This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

Looking for the best flash floods indicators in Mediterranean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Turco, Marco

2010-05-01

Flash floods are a recurrent hazard in Mediterranean Region. From a global point of view, a distinction between two kinds of floods can be made (Llasat, 2009): a) Short-lived and strongly convective events (cases recorded between 2005 and 2006. This sample has been increased with some selected cases of the European project HYDRATE. Information from all the flash-floods recorded in Catalonia (Spain) since 1982, completed with data about population density and so on, has also been considered.

The development of a flash flood severity index

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, Amanda J.; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hardy, Jill; Henderson, Jen J.; Parhi, Pradipta; Rahmani, Vahid; Reed, Kimberly A.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Smith, Brianne K.; Taraldsen, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

Flash flooding is a high impact weather event that requires clear communication regarding severity and potential hazards among forecasters, researchers, emergency managers, and the general public. Current standards used to communicate these characteristics include return periods and the United States (U.S.) National Weather Service (NWS) 4-tiered river flooding severity scale. Return periods are largely misunderstood, and the NWS scale is limited to flooding on gauged streams and rivers, often leaving out heavily populated urban corridors. To address these shortcomings, a student-led group of interdisciplinary researchers came together in a collaborative effort to develop an impact-based Flash Flood Severity Index (FFSI). The index was proposed as a damage-based, post-event assessment tool, and preliminary work toward the creation of this index has been completed and presented here. Numerous case studies were analyzed to develop the preliminary outline for the FFSI, and three examples of such cases are included in this paper. The scale includes five impact-based categories ranging from Category 1 very minor flooding to Category 5 catastrophic flooding. Along with the numerous case studies used to develop the initial outline of the scale, empirical data in the form of semi-structured interviews were conducted with multiple NWS forecasters across the country and their responses were analyzed to gain more perspective on the complicated nature of flash flood definitions and which tools were found to be most useful. The feedback from these interviews suggests the potential for acceptance of such an index if it can account for specific challenges.

Flash floods in Europe: state of the art and research perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Gaume, Eric

2014-05-01

Flash floods, i.e. floods induced by severe rainfall events generally affecting watersheds of limited area, are the most frequent, destructive and deadly kind of natural hazard known in Europe and throughout the world. Flash floods are especially intense across the Mediterranean zone, where rainfall accumulations exceeding 500 mm within a few hours may be observed. Despite this state of facts, the study of extremes in hydrology has essentially gone unexplored until the recent past, with the exception of some rare factual reports on individual flood events, with the sporadic inclusion of isolated estimated peak discharges. Floods of extraordinary magnitude are in fact hardly ever captured by existing standard measurement networks, either because they are too heavily concentrated in space and time or because their discharges greatly exceed the design and calibration ranges of the measurement devices employed (stream gauges). This situation has gradually evolved over the last decade for two main reasons. First, the expansion and densification of weather radar networks, combined with improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates, now provide ready access to rainfall measurements at spatial and temporal scales that, while not perfectly accurate, are compatible with the study of extreme events. Heavy rainfall events no longer fail to be recorded by existing rain gauge and radar networks. Second, pioneering research efforts on extreme floods, based on precise post-flood surveys, have helped overcome the limitations imposed by a small base of available direct measured data. This activity has already yielded significant progress in expanding the knowledge and understanding of extreme flash floods. This presentation will provide a review of the recent research progresses in the area of flash flood studies, mainly based on the outcomes of the European research projects FLOODsite, HYDRATE and Hymex. It will show how intensive collation of field data helped better define

Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2012-01-01

An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

2012-02-01

An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

Flash Flood Detection in Urban Cities Using Ultrasonic and Infrared Sensors

KAUST Repository

Mousa, Mustafa; Zhang, Xiangliang; Claudel, Christian

2016-01-01

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster. Often leading to loss of lives and properties in the thousands yearly. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the population density of cities. Since most flood casualties are caused by a lack of information on the impending flood (type, location, severity), sensing these events is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings and short term forecasts. However, no dedicated flash flood sensing systems, that could monitor the propagation of flash floods, in real time, currently exist in cities. In the present paper, firstly a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and traffic congestion has been presented. This sensing device is based on the combination of ultrasonic range-finding with remote temperature sensing, and can sense both phenomena with a high degree of accuracy, using a combination of L1-regularized reconstruction and artificial neural networks to process measurement data. Secondly, corresponding algorithms have been implemented on a low-power wireless sensor platform, and their performance in water level estimation in a 6 months test involving four different sensors is illustrated. The results demonstrate that urban water levels can be reliably estimated with error less than 2 cm, and that the preprocessing and machine learning schemes can run in real-time on currently available wireless sensor platforms.

Flash Flood Detection in Urban Cities Using Ultrasonic and Infrared Sensors

KAUST Repository

Mousa, Mustafa

2016-07-19

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster. Often leading to loss of lives and properties in the thousands yearly. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the population density of cities. Since most flood casualties are caused by a lack of information on the impending flood (type, location, severity), sensing these events is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings and short term forecasts. However, no dedicated flash flood sensing systems, that could monitor the propagation of flash floods, in real time, currently exist in cities. In the present paper, firstly a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and traffic congestion has been presented. This sensing device is based on the combination of ultrasonic range-finding with remote temperature sensing, and can sense both phenomena with a high degree of accuracy, using a combination of L1-regularized reconstruction and artificial neural networks to process measurement data. Secondly, corresponding algorithms have been implemented on a low-power wireless sensor platform, and their performance in water level estimation in a 6 months test involving four different sensors is illustrated. The results demonstrate that urban water levels can be reliably estimated with error less than 2 cm, and that the preprocessing and machine learning schemes can run in real-time on currently available wireless sensor platforms.

A new French flash flood warning service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Saint-Aubin Céline

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

Medium range forecasting of Hurricane Harvey flash flooding using ECMWF and social vulnerability data

Science.gov (United States)

Pillosu, F. M.; Jurlina, T.; Baugh, C.; Tsonevsky, I.; Hewson, T.; Prates, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Prudhomme, C.

2017-12-01

During hurricane Harvey the greater east Texas area was affected by extensive flash flooding. Their localised nature meant they were too small for conventional large scale flood forecasting systems to capture. We are testing the use of two real time forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in combination with local vulnerability information to provide flash flood forecasting tools at the medium range (up to 7 days ahead). Meteorological forecasts are the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI), a measure of how the ensemble forecast probability distribution differs from the model-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time; and the shift of tails (SOT) which complements the EFI by quantifying how extreme an event could potentially be. Both products give the likelihood of flash flood generating precipitation. For hurricane Harvey, 3-day EFI and SOT products for the period 26th - 29th August 2017 were used, generated from the twice daily, 18 km, 51 ensemble member ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. After regridding to 1 km resolution the forecasts were combined with vulnerable area data to produce a flash flood hazard risk area. The vulnerability data were floodplains (EU Joint Research Centre), road networks (Texas Department of Transport) and urban areas (Census Bureau geographic database), together reflecting the susceptibility to flash floods from the landscape. The flash flood hazard risk area forecasts were verified using a traditional approach against observed National Weather Service flash flood reports, a total of 153 reported flash floods have been detected in that period. Forecasts performed best for SOT = 5 (hit ratio = 65%, false alarm ratio = 44%) and EFI = 0.7 (hit ratio = 74%, false alarm ratio = 45%) at 72 h lead time. By including the vulnerable areas data, our verification results improved by 5-15%, demonstrating the value of vulnerability information within

A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

2017-04-01

Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

2016-02-01

Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this

Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings based on the DFFG method in Yunnan province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, M.; Wang, H.; Chen, Y.; Tang, G.; Hong, Z.; Zhang, K.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Flash floods, one of the deadliest natural hazards worldwide due to their multidisciplinary nature, rank highly in terms of heavy damage and casualties. Such as in the United States, flash flood is the No.1 cause of death and the No. 2 most deadly weather-related hazard among all storm-related hazards, with approximately 100 lives lost each year. According to China Floods and Droughts Disasters Bullet in 2015 (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/zgshzhgb), about 935 deaths per year on average were caused by flash floods from 2000 to 2015, accounting for 73 % of the fatalities due to floods. Therefore, significant efforts have been made toward understanding flash flood processes as well as modeling and forecasting them, it still remains challenging because of their short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This study advances the use of high-resolution Global Precipitation Measurement forecasts (GPMs), disaster data obtained from the government officials in 2011 and 2016, and the improved Distributed Flash Flood Guidance (DFFG) method combining the Distributed Hydrologic Model and Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examines changes in flash flood occurrence, (2) to estimate the effect of the rainfall spatial variability ,(2) to improve the lead time in flash floods warning and get the rainfall threshold, (3) to assess the DFFG method applicability in Dongchuan catchments, and (4) to yield the probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the GPMs. Results indicate: (1) flash flood occurrence increased in the study region, (2) the occurrence of predicted flash floods show high sensitivity to total infiltration and soil water content, (3) the DFFG method is generally capable of making accurate predictions of flash flood events in terms of their locations and time of occurrence, and (4) the accumulative rainfall over a certain time span is an

Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Inna Pivovarova; Daria Sokolova; Artur Batyrov; Vadim Kuzmin; Ngoc Anh Tran; DinhKha Dang; Kirill V. Shemanaev

2018-01-01

Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfort...

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Bodoque, José M.; Ballesteros, Juan A.

2010-06-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Flash flood swift water rescues, Texas, 2005–2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vaidehi Shah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Although rainfall patterns are complex and difficult to predict, climate models suggest precipitation in Texas will occur less frequently and with greater intensity in the future. In combination with rapid population growth and development, extreme rainfall events are likely to lead to flash floods and necessitate swift water rescues. Swift water rescues are used to retrieve person(s from swift water flowing at a rate of 1 knot or greater. Data were obtained from the Texas Fire Marshal’s Office and analyzed to describe spatial and temporal characteristics of rescues. Between 2005 and 2014, 3256 swift water rescues were reported from 136 of 254 (54% counties. Over half (54.6%, n = 1777 occurred in counties known as Flash Flood Alley, which includes Texas’ largest and fastest growing cities. Less than 1.0% (n = 18 were reported from 49 counties designated as completely rural, or with an urban population less than 2500. Increases in swift water rescues were seen between March and September and during major weather events such as tropical storms. Because county-level data was utilized and demographic data was missing in all but 2% (n = 47 of the incidents, our ability to identify populations at risk or target interventions in the future using this data is limited. Despite the frequency of flash flood events and swift water rescues in Texas, knowledge gaps persist that should be addressed through the conduct of interdisciplinary research by epidemiologists and climatologists and by disseminating evidence-based health education and safety programs, particularly in rapidly growing counties that make up Texas’ Flash Flood Alley.

Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

2017-12-01

This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the

High Resolution Flash Flood Forecasting Using a Wireless Sensor Network in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex

Science.gov (United States)

Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

In this study, we develop and evaluate a high resolution urban flash flood monitoring system using a wireless sensor network (WSN), a real-time rainfall-runoff model, and spatially-explicit radar rainfall predictions. Flooding is the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities in the US, with flash flooding in particular responsible for a majority of flooding deaths. While many riverine flood models have been operationalized into early warning systems, there is currently no model that is capable of reliably predicting flash floods in urban areas. Urban flash floods are particularly difficult to model due to a lack of rainfall and runoff data at appropriate scales. To address this problem, we develop a wide-area flood-monitoring wireless sensor network for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and use this network to characterize rainfall-runoff response over multiple heterogeneous catchments. First, we deploy a network of 22 wireless sensor nodes to collect real-time stream stage measurements over catchments ranging from 2-80 km2 in size. Next, we characterize the rainfall-runoff response of each catchment by combining stream stage data with gage and radar-based precipitation measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for real-time flash flood prediction by joining the derived rainfall-runoff models with real-time radar rainfall predictions. We find that runoff response is highly heterogeneous among catchments, with large variabilities in runoff response detected even among nearby gages. However, when spatially-explicit rainfall fields are included, spatial variability in runoff response is largely captured. This result highlights the importance of increased spatial coverage for flash flood prediction.

Urban flash flood vulnerability : spatial assessment and adaptation : a case study in Istanbul, Turkey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reyes-Acevedo, Martin Alejandro; Flacke, J.; Brussel, M.J.G.

2011-01-01

The Ayamama River basin in Istanbul is a densely populated urban area that is frequently impacted by flash floods causing damage to people and infrastructure. The IPCC expects that under climate change conditions, more intense precipitation will occur, leading to a higher risk of flash floods.

Development of a mobile app for flash flood alerting and data cataloging

Science.gov (United States)

Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Nguyen, M.

2016-12-01

No matter how accurate and specific a forecast of flash flooding is made, there are local nuances with the communities related to the built environment that often dictate the locations and magnitudes of impacts. These are difficult, if not impossible, to identify, classify, and measure using remote sensing methods. This presentation presents a Thriving Earth Exchange project that is developing a mobile app that serves two purposes. First, it will provide detailed forecasts of flash flooding down to the 1-km pixel scale with 10-min updates using the state-of-the-science hydrologic forecasting system called FLASH. The display of model outputs on an app will greatly facilitate their use and can potentially increase first responders' reactions to the specific locations of impending disasters. Then, the first responders will have the capability of reporting the geotagged impacts they are witnessing, including those local "trouble spots". Over time, we will catalog the trouble spots for the community so that they can be flagged in future events. If proven effective, the app will then be advertised in other flood-prone communities and the database will be expanded accordingly. In summary, we are engaging local communities to provide information that can inform and improve future forecasts of flash flood, ultimately reducing their impacts and saving lives.

Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

Science.gov (United States)

Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

2009-04-01

Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-11-01

In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

Flash floods and debris flow: how the risk could can be better managed? The case of the events in Sicily on October 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Brigandi', Giuseppina

2010-05-01

beginning of an event has been investigated in order to test is this kind of approach can be useful as flash flood forecasting system. This kind of approach, associated with the use of LAM (Limited Area Modelling) approach could, in fact, increase the forecast lead time. When an efficient flash flood forecasting system can be difficult to apply, a good risk management and some structural action can be contemplated to improve the safety of the people and the properties. In these cases, hazard maps associated to several scenarios that cover the geographical areas which have been flooded and those that could be flooded, can be a practical alternative. These areas shall be shown according to several scenarios and, for each scenarios, the degree of danger will also be provided by expressing the water depth, the flow velocity or the combination of these and the identification of areas which could be subject to bank overflowing and debris flow deposition.

An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

2009-09-01

This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

Science.gov (United States)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Romulus Costache

2017-06-16

Jun 16, 2017 ... torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating ... Service (USA). At that ... to improve the quality of flash-flood forecasts. ...... offers the possibility to obtain more credible and.

Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

2012-04-01

Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. Koutroulis

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

2012-04-01

China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

OpenAIRE

ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

2012-01-01

Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theresa M. Modrick

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: Small watersheds (O[25 km2] in the mountain regions of southern California comprise the study region. Study focus: This paper examines changes in flash flood occurrence in southern California resulting from projected climatic change. The methodology synthesizes elements of meteorological modeling, hydrology and geomorphology into an integrated modeling approach to define flash flood occurrence in a systematic and consistent way on a regional basis with high spatial and temporal resolution appropriate for flash flooding. A single climate model with three-dimensional atmospheric detail was used as input to drive simulations for historical and future periods. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate an increase in flash flood occurrence for the study region. For two distributed hydrologic models employed, the increase in flash flood occurrence frequency is on average between 30% and 40%. Regional flash flood occurrence is characterized by near saturation of the upper soil layer, and wider ranges in lower soil layer saturation and in precipitation. Overall, a decrease in the total number of precipitation events was found, although with increased precipitation intensity, increased event duration, and higher soil saturation conditions for the 21st century. This combination could signify more hazardous conditions, with fewer precipitation events but higher rainfall intensity and over soils with higher initial soil moisture saturation, leading to more frequent occurrence of flash floods. Keywords: Flash flooding, Climate change, Soil moisture, Precipitation, Distributed hydrologic modeling

Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

Science.gov (United States)

Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

2018-03-01

The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

Flash-flood impacts cause changes in wood anatomy of Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia and Quercus pyrenaica.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballesteros, J A; Stoffel, M; Bollschweiler, M; Bodoque, J M; Díez-Herrero, A

2010-06-01

Flash floods may influence the development of trees growing on channel bars and floodplains. In this study, we analyze and quantify anatomical reactions to wounding in diffuse-porous (Alnus glutinosa L.) and ring-porous (Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl. and Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) trees in a Mediterranean environment. A total of 54 cross-sections and wedges were collected from trees that had been injured by past flash floods. From each of the samples, micro-sections were prepared at a tangential distance of 1.5 cm from the injury to determine wounding-related changes in radial width, tangential width and lumen of earlywood vessels, and fibers and parenchyma cells (FPC). In diffuse-porous A. glutinosa, the lumen area of vessels shows a significant (non-parametric test, P-value <0.05) decrease by almost 39% after wounding. For ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica, significant decreases in vessel lumen area are observed as well by 59 and 42%, respectively. Radial width of vessels was generally more sensitive to the decrease than tangential width, but statistically significant values were only observed in F. angustifolia. Changes in the dimensions of earlywood FPC largely differed between species. While in ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica the lumen of FPC dropped by 22 and 34% after wounding, we observed an increase in FPC lumen area in diffuse-porous A. glutinosa of approximately 35%. Our data clearly show that A. glutinosa represents a valuable species for flash-flood research in vulnerable Mediterranean environments. For this species, it will be possible in the future to gather information on past flash floods with non-destructive sampling based on increment cores. In ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica, flash floods leave less drastic, yet still recognizable, signatures of flash-flood activity through significant changes in vessel lumen area. In contrast, the use of changes in FPC dimensions appears less feasible for the determination of

Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2009-09-01

Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Morss, Rebecca E.; Mulder, Kelsey J.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Demuth, Julie L.

2016-10-01

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

2015-04-01

Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

Gauging Flash-Floods: Automated Measurement of Flood Events in Mountain Torrents

Science.gov (United States)

Liechti, Katharina; Boss, Stefan; Fritschi, Bruno; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Rating curves contain uncertainties, especially in their upper range of higher discharge. This is due to more uncertainties in the measurements and also the typically lower number of measurements of high discharge events. However, it is the upper part of a rating curve that is of interest if it comes to dimensioning protection measures against floods and flash floods. For small municipalities who plan mitigation measures like a dam for protection against flash floods of small mountain torrent a rating curve as accurate as possible can be of great interest. It helps to reduce costs that can be caused by both under- and overdimensioning of a protective structure. We therefore invented a mobile discharge measurement station that is set up to construct a rating curve for small turbulent mountain torrents. It operates with salt dilution method and works in its current setup up to about 10 m3/s. The salt is injected automatically to the torrent when an event of desired magnitude takes place. Further downstream a conductivity measuring sensor records the change in salt concentration of the stream water. This mechanism is guided by automatic continuous observation of radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and a water pressure sensor. Measurements at a first test site gave promising results. The system does event measurements independent of the time of day and day of the week. The measuring equipment at the field site is only activated in case of an event. Therefore it has a low power consumption and can be run by only two solar panels.

Reconstructing the 2015 Flash Flood event of Salgar Colombia, The Case of a Poor Gauged Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, N.; Zapata, E.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Velez, J. I.

2017-12-01

Flash floods events associated with severe precipitation events are highly destructive, often resulting in significant human and economic losses. Due to their nature, flash floods trend to occur in medium to small basins located within complex high mountainous regions. In the Colombian Andean region these basins are very common, with the aggravating factor that the vulnerability is considerably high as some important human settlements are located within these basins, frequently occupating flood plains and other flash-flood prone areas. During the dawn of May 18 of 2015 two severe rainfall events generated a flash flood event in the municipality ofSalgar, La Liboriana basin, locatedin the northwestern Colombian Andes, resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. The present work is a reconstruction of the hydrological processes that took place before and during the Liboriana flash flood event, analyzed as a case of poorly gauged basin.The event conditions where recreated based on radar retrievals and a hydrological distributed model, linked with a proposed 1D hydraulic model and simple shallow landslide model. Results suggest that the flash flood event was caused by the occurrence of two successive severe convective events over the same basin, with an important modulation associated with soil characteristics and water storage.Despite of its simplicity, the proposed hydraulic model achieves a good representation of the flooded area during the event, with limitations due to the adopted spatial scale (12.7 meters, from ALOS PALSAR images). Observed landslides were obtained from satellite images; for this case the model simulates skillfully the landslide occurrence regions with small differences in the exact locations.To understand this case, radar data shows to be key due to specific convective cores location and rainfall intensity estimation.In mountainous regions, there exists a significant number of settlements with similar

Interim report on flash floods, Area 5 - Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French, R.H.

1980-09-01

Examination of the presently available data indicates that consideration must be given to the possibility of flash floods when siting waste management facilities in Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site. 6 figures, 7 tables

Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

Science.gov (United States)

Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

2016-10-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

A retrospective analysis of the flash flood in Braunsbach on May 29th, 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Laudan, Jonas; Öztürk, Ugur; Sieg, Tobias; Wendi, Dadiyorto; Riemer, Adrian; Agarwal, Ankit; Rözer, Viktor; Korup, Oliver; Thieken, Annegret; Vogel, Kristin

2017-04-01

At the end of May and early June 2016 several rainstorms caused severe surface water flooding and flash floods, partly accompanied by mud and debris flows, in Central Europe, and especially in southern Germany. On the evening of May 29, 2016, a flood outburst with massive amounts of rubble and muddy sediments hit the town of Braunsbach, Baden-Württemberg, damaging numerous buildings, cars, and town facilities. The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach "flash flood" as an exemplary catastrophic event triggered by severe weather. Bringing together scientists from the fields of meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology, flood risk, natural hazards, and mathematics the research team was especially interested in the interplay of causes and triggers leading to the event. Accordingly, the team focused on the entire process chain from heavy precipitation to runoff and flood generation and the geomorphic aftermath. The steep slopes in the catchment area promote the episodic supply of gravel, debris and organic material, which remains stored for decades to millennia, only to be remobilized during rare and extreme runoff events such as in 2016. Field mapping revealed at least 48 landslides as sources of high sediment loads. Nonetheless, numerous scars of river erosion along the tributary creeks into Braunsbach indicate that most of the material carried by the flash flood was due to bank undercutting. The flow also entrained more rubble, trees, cars, and other anthropogenic sediments further downstream. This enhanced solids load increased the physical impact, and hence damage, to buildings. Local effects of flow depth, flow velocity, and exposition of buildings into the advancing non-steady and non-uniform flow caused the damage to exceed that of a clearwater flood with comparable return period. We conclude that, to meaningfully inform the implementation of precautionary

Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods

Science.gov (United States)

Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-12-01

Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally

Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

2009-04-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

2009-07-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

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Braud Isabelle

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS FLOODING OF THE CRIMEAN AREA DURING OF FLASH FLOODS IN 2012ON THE BASIS COMPUTER SIMULATION

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E. O. Agafonnikova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamics features of the surface waters for the territory of the Crimea area of Krasnodar region in flash flood conditions have been studied. The parameters of flooding depending on the precipitation intensity have been defined.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Technical Note: Advances in flash flood monitoring using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs

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M. T. Perks

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs have the potential to capture information about the earth's surface in dangerous and previously inaccessible locations. Through image acquisition of flash flood events and subsequent object-based analysis, highly dynamic and oft-immeasurable hydraulic phenomena may be quantified at previously unattainable spatial and temporal resolutions. The potential for this approach to provide valuable information about the hydraulic conditions present during dynamic, high-energy flash floods has until now not been explored. In this paper we adopt a novel approach, utilizing the Kande–Lucas–Tomasi (KLT algorithm to track features present on the water surface which are related to the free-surface velocity. Following the successful tracking of features, a method analogous to the vector correction method has enabled accurate geometric rectification of velocity vectors. Uncertainties associated with the rectification process induced by unsteady camera movements are subsequently explored. Geo-registration errors are relatively stable and occur as a result of persistent residual distortion effects following image correction. The apparent ground movement of immobile control points between measurement intervals ranges from 0.05 to 0.13 m. The application of this approach to assess the hydraulic conditions present in the Alyth Burn, Scotland, during a 1 : 200 year flash flood resulted in the generation of an average 4.2 at a rate of 508 measurements s−1. Analysis of these vectors provides a rare insight into the complexity of channel–overbank interactions during flash floods. The uncertainty attached to the calculated velocities is relatively low, with a spatial average across the area of ±0.15 m s−1. Little difference is observed in the uncertainty attached to out-of-bank velocities (±0.15 m s−1, and within-channel velocities (±0.16 m s−1, illustrating the consistency of the approach.

THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL LOSS CAUSED BY FLOODS AND FLASH-FLOODS BY USING COMPUTER TECHNIQUES. CASE STUDY: LOPĂTARI VILLAGE, SLĂNIC RIVER

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COSTACHE R.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The present study aims to provide an example of the assessment of economical loss caused by floods and flash-floods, by integrating GIS techniques of hydraulic and hydrological modelling. The case study was performed in Lopătari village, which is located in the upper area of Slănic River, one of the most affected areas by floods and flash-floods. The flood event produced on 29.V.2012 was considered in order to perform this study. Thus, a flood hydrograph was simulated by using software HEC-HMS 3.5, based on hourly precipitation data from Bisoca meteorological station from 29.V.2012. The peak discharge resulting from the hydrological modelling software was used in HEC-RAS 4.1 hydraulic modelling software in order to determine the extent of flooding band, the number of the affected elements and the local economical loss. Finally, 21 flooded buildings were identified and 550 m of affected road, the estimated economical damage being about 800,000 RON.

FLASH-FLOOD MODELLING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS USING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES

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Dinu Cristian

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in modelling the hydrological processes has become a common approach in the last two decades, among side the traditional methods. In regard to the rainfall-runoff modelling, in both traditional and ANN models the use of ground rainfall measurements is prevalent, which can be challenging in areas with low rain gauging station density, especially in catchments where strong focused rainfall can generate flash-floods. The weather radar technology can prove to be a solution for such areas by providing rain estimates with good time and space resolution. This paper presents a comparison between different ANN setups using as input both ground and radar observations for modelling the rainfall-runoff process for Bahluet catchment, with focus on a flash-flood observed in the catchment.

Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

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T. Matingo

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

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Inna Pivovarova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfortunately, most of river basins in Russia are poorly gauged or ungauged; besides, lack of hydrogeological data is quite typical. However, the developing economy and population safety necessitate issuing warnings based on reliable forecasts. For this purpose, a new hydrological model, MLCM3 (Multi-Layer Conceptual Model, 3 rd generation has been developed in the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. The model showed good results in more than 50 tested basins.

A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

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Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-06-15

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding processes that generate flash floods in the arid Judean Desert to the Dead Sea - a measurement network

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Hennig, Hanna; Rödiger, Tino; Laronne, Jonathan B.; Geyer, Stefan; Merz, Ralf

2016-04-01

Flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are fascinating in their suddenness and can be harmful for humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Generated within minutes, an early warning system is essential. A hydrological model is required to quantify flash floods. Current models to predict flash floods are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where flash floods occur require consideration. In this study we present a monitoring approach to decipher different flash flood generating processes in the ephemeral Wadi Arugot on the western side of the Dead Sea. To understand rainfall input a dense rain gauge network was installed. Locations of rain gauges were chosen based on land use, slope and soil cover. The spatiotemporal variation of rain intensity will also be available from radar backscatter. Level pressure sensors located at the outlet of major tributaries have been deployed to analyze in which part of the catchment water is generated. To identify the importance of soil moisture preconditions, two cosmic ray sensors have been deployed. At the outlet of the Arugot water is sampled and level is monitored. To more accurately determine water discharge, water velocity is measured using portable radar velocimetry. A first analysis of flash flood processes will be presented following the FLEX-Topo concept .(Savenije, 2010), where each landscape type is represented using an individual hydrological model according to the processes within the three hydrological response units: plateau, desert and outlet. References: Savenije, H. H. G.: HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2681-2692, doi:10.5194/hess-14-2681-2010, 2010.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

OpenAIRE

Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

2013-01-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

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Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

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Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

2000-01-01

This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

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Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

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Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

2017-04-01

Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

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Le Bihan Guillaume

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

Analysis of economic vulnerability to flash floods in urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

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Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; García, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

The growth of exposed population to floods, the expansion in allocation of economical activities to flood-prone areas and the rise of extraordinary event frequency over the last few decades, have resulted in an increase of flash flood-related casualties and economic losses. The increase in these losses at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Vulnerability is defined as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. In recent years, numerous papers have deal with the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. However, economic factors are often a neglected aspect in traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on structural measures and flood damage models. In this context, the aim of this research is to identify those economic characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazard, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Cluster Analysis of economic information provided by different public institutional databases. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2), placed in Central-Northern Spain. Townships included in this study meet two requirements: i) urban areas are potentially affected by flash floods (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1); ii) urban areas are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of

A study case of Baranca drainage basin flash-floods using the hydrological model of Hec-Ras

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Aritina HALIUC

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In the last decades, the floods which occurred within Romanian territory stand as proof for the increased frequency of the extreme hydrological hazards which have negative effects on the normal pathway of the human-beings activities. The technological progress among with the increased frequency of floods events are the base for the development of informational programs for the analysis, simulation and flood management. The Baranca brook which drains a considerable part of Zamostea village (Romania was used as a pilot drainage basin for the flash-flood simulation using the Hec-Ras program and the Arcgis extension, HecGeo-Ras. The flash-floods that occurred in the summer of 2010 were used to validate the results of the simulation. Between 28.06.2010 – 29.06.2010, two flash-floods occurred in the Baranca drainage basin with a discharge oscillated between 10m3 and 70m3, a water extent which covered an area of 5.14 km2 and a depth ranging between 0.3-3m. The programs are capable to simulate the water flow and to investigate the floodway encroachments in the study area. The damages evaluated in the field along with the program’s results reveal the fact that more than half of the built-up areas of Zamostea village are established along brooks, within the floodplain area. What is more, after the 2010 floods, the expension of the habitable area was not detained by the water danger, many houses are still built on the floodplain. The programs used, taking an acceptable margin of error, may be integrated into any flood management strategy or in any watershed plan and may provide the necessary support for mitigating the risks associated with floods

Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

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Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

2015-04-01

The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

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Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

GIS-modelling of the spatial variability of flash flood hazard in Abu Dabbab catchment, Red Sea Region, Egypt

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Islam Abou El-Magd

2010-06-01

Full Text Available In the mountainous area of the Red Sea region in southeastern Egypt, the development of new mining activities or/and domestic infrastructures require reliable and accurate information about natural hazards particularly flash flood. This paper presents the assessment of flash flood hazards in the Abu Dabbab drainage basin. Remotely sensed data were used to delineate the alluvial active channels, which were integrated with morphometric parameters extracted from digital elevation models (DEM into geographical information systems (GIS to construct a hydrological model that provides estimates about the amount of surface runoff as well as the magnitude of flash floods. The peak discharge is randomly varied at different cross-sections along the main channel. Under consistent 10 mm rainfall event, the selected cross-section in middle of the main channel is prone to maximum water depth at 80 cm, which decreases to nearly 30 cm at the outlet due to transmission loss. The estimation of spatial variability of flow parameters within the catchment at different confluences of the constituting sub-catchments can be considered and used in planning for engineering foundations and linear infrastructures with the least flash flood hazard. Such information would, indeed, help decision makers and planning to minimize such hazards.

Monitoring the variability of precipitable water vapor over the Klang Valley, Malaysia during flash flood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suparta, W; Rahman, R; Singh, M S J

2014-01-01

Klang Valley is a focal area of Malaysian economic and business activities where the local weather condition is very important to maintain its reputation. Heavy rainfalls for more than an hour were reported up to 40 mm in September 2013 and 35 mm in October 2013. Both events are monitored as the first and second cases of flash flood, respectively. Based on these cases, we investigate the water vapor, rainfall, surface meteorological data (surface pressure, relative humidity, and temperature) and river water level. The precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) is used to indicate the impact of flash flood on the rainfall. We found that PWV was dropped 4 mm in 2 hours before rainfall reached to 40 mm and dropped 3 mm in 3 hours before 35 mm of rainfall in respective cases. Variation of PWV was higher in September case compared to October case of about 2 mm. We suggest the rainfall phenomena can disturb the GPS propagation and therefore, the impact of PWV before, during and after the flash flood event at three selected GPS stations in Klang Valley is investigated for possible mitigation in the future

A framework of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models using synthetic rainfall for flash flood hazard mapping of ungauged catchments in tropical zones

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W. Lohpaisankrit

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Flash flood hazard maps provide a scientific support to mitigate flash flood risk. The present study develops a practical framework with the help of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling in order to estimate the potential flash floods. We selected a small pilot catchment which has already suffered from flash floods in the past. This catchment is located in the Nan River basin, northern Thailand. Reliable meteorological and hydrometric data are missing in the catchment. Consequently, the entire upper basin of the main river was modelled with the help of the hydrological modelling system PANTA RHEI. In this basin, three monitoring stations are located along the main river. PANTA RHEI was calibrated and validated with the extreme flood events in June 2011 and July 2008, respectively. The results show a good agreement with the observed discharge data. In order to create potential flash flood scenarios, synthetic rainfall series were derived from temporal rainfall patterns based on the radar-rainfall observation and different rainfall depths from regional rainfall frequency analysis. The temporal rainfall patterns were characterized by catchment-averaged rainfall series selected from 13 rainstorms in 2008 and 2011 within the region. For regional rainfall frequency analysis, the well-known L-moments approach and related criteria were used to examine extremely climatic homogeneity of the region. According to the L-moments approach, Generalized Pareto distribution was recognized as the regional frequency distribution. The synthetic rainfall series were fed into the PANTA RHEI model. The simulated results from PANTA RHEI were provided to a 2-D hydrodynamic model (MEADFLOW, and various simulations were performed. Results from the integrated modelling framework are used in the ongoing study to regionalize and map the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards with four levels of flood severities. As an overall outcome, the presented framework

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

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Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

Flash floods along the Italian coastal areas: examples from Pozzuoli city, Campania, Italy

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Esposito, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Giuseppe; Matano, Fabio; Mazzola, Salvatore; Sacchi, Marco

2014-05-01

The Italian western coastal areas are the most exposed in the country to low-pressure systems coming from the central-western Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. In the last years, many Italian coastal villages were struck by floods and flow processes triggered by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall, typical of flash flood events. In the Campania region (SW Italy) a series of events has caused several fatalities and heavy damages in the last decades, i.e. the flash floods of Casamicciola - Ischia Island (10/11/2009 - 1 fatality) and Atrani (9/9/2010 - 1 fatality). In this work we describe the rainfall properties and the ground effects of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 flash floods which involved the city of Pozzuoli, along the Campi Flegrei coast, where a catastrophic flood event (13 fatalities) is reported in 1918 in the AVI Project database. Rainfall data were measured at a sampling rate of 10 minutes by a regional Civil Protection rain gauge located in the city of Pozzuoli near the areas struck by the flash flood effects. In order to analyze the extreme features of the rainstorms and compare them, we have considered the 1-hour maximum rainfall amount and the 10-min peak storm intensity value for each event. The first rainstorm occurred on 14 September 2009; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 34.4 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 57.6 mm/h. The second rainstorm occurred on 30 July 2010; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 40.6 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 126 mm/h. The third rainstorm occurred on 06 November 2011; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 44.2 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 67.2 mm/h. The three described rainstorms all triggered erosional processes and shallow landslides in the upper part of the Pozzuoli drainage basin that supplied sheet flows and hyperconcentrated flows downstream, with severe damage to the human structures built near or inside the

Flash vaporization during earthquakes evidenced by gold deposits

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Weatherley, Dion K.; Henley, Richard W.

2013-04-01

Much of the world's known gold has been derived from arrays of quartz veins. The veins formed during periods of mountain building that occurred as long as 3 billion years ago, and were deposited by very large volumes of water that flowed along deep, seismically active faults. The veins formed under fluctuating pressures during earthquakes, but the magnitude of the pressure fluctuations and their influence on mineral deposition is not known. Here we use a simple thermo-mechanical piston model to calculate the drop in fluid pressure experienced by a fluid-filled fault cavity during an earthquake. The geometry of the model is constrained using measurements of typical fault jogs, such as those preserved in the Revenge gold deposit in Western Australia, and other gold deposits around the world. We find that cavity expansion generates extreme reductions in pressure that cause the fluid that is trapped in the jog to expand to a very low-density vapour. Such flash vaporization of the fluid results in the rapid co-deposition of silica with a range of trace elements to form gold-enriched quartz veins. Flash vaporization continues as more fluid flows towards the newly expanded cavity, until the pressure in the cavity eventually recovers to ambient conditions. Multiple earthquakes progressively build economic-grade gold deposits.

Progressive recovery of a tropical deforested stream community after a flash flood

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Lucas Cerqueira Marques

2013-06-01

Full Text Available AIM: In this study, we evaluated and compared community attributes from a tropical deforested stream, located in a pasture area, in a period before (PRED I and three times after (POSD I, II, and III a flash flood, in order to investigate the existence of temporal modifications in community structure that suggests return to conditions previous to the flash flood. METHODS: Biota samples included algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages. Changes in stream physical structure we also evaluated. Similarity of the aquatic biota between pre and post-disturbance periods was examined by exploratory ordination, known as Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling associated with Cluster Analysis, using quantitative and presence/absence Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients. Presence and absence data were used for multivariate correlation analysis (Relate Analysis in order to investigate taxonomic composition similarity of biota between pre and post-disturbance periods. RESULTS: Our results evidenced channel simplification and an expressive decrease in richness and abundance of all taxa right after the flood, followed by subsequent increases of these parameters in the next three samples, indicating trends towards stream community recovery. Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients evidenced a greater community structure disparity among the period right after the flood and the subsequent ones. Multivariate correlation analysis evidenced a greater correlation between macroinvertebrates and algae/macrophytes, demonstrating the narrow relation between their recolonization dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall community structure tended to return to previous conditions, recolonization after the flood was much slower than that reported in literature. Finally, the remarkably high flood impact along with the slow recolonization could be a result of the historical presence of anthropic impacts in the region, such as siltation, riparian forest complete depletion

A Flash Flood Study on the Small Montaneous River Catchments in Western Romania

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Győri, Maria-Mihaela; Haidu, Ionel; Humbert, Joël

2013-04-01

The present study focuses on flash flood modeling on several mountaneous catchments situated in Western Romania by the use of two methodologies, when rainfall and catchment characteristics are known. Hence, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Method and the Rational Method will be employed for the generation of the 1%, 2% and 10% historical flash flood hydrographs on the basis of data spanning from 1989-2009. The SCS Method has been applied on the three gauged catchments in the study area: Petris, Troas and Monorostia making use of the existing interconnection between GIS and the rainfall-runoff models. The DEM, soil data and land use preprocessing in GIS allowed a determination of the hydrologic parameters needed for the rainfall-runoff model, with special emphasis on determining the time of concentration, Lag time and the weighted Curve Number according to Antecedent Moisture Conditions II, adapted for the Romanian territory. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model (Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling System) facilitates the historical 1%, 2% and 10% flash flood hydrograph generation for the three afore mentioned watersheds. The model is calibrated against measured streamflow data from the three existing gauging stations. The results show a good match between the resulted hydrographs and the observed hydrographs under the form of the Peak Weighted Error RMS values. The hydrographs generated by surface runoff on the ungauged catchments in the area is based on an automation of a workflow in GIS, built with ArcGIS Model Builder graphical interface, as a large part of the functions needed were available as ArcGIS tools. The several components of this model calculate: the runoff depth in mm, the runoff coefficient, the travel time and finally the discharge module which is an application of the rational method, allowing the discharge computation for every cell within the catchment. The result consists of discharges for each isochrones that will be subsequently

Characterization of a Mediterranean flash flood event using rain gauges, radar, GIS and lightning data

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M. Barnolas

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Flash flood events are very common in Catalonia, generating a high impact on society, including losses in life almost every year. They are produced by the overflowing of ephemeral rivers in narrow and steep basins close to the sea. This kind of floods is associated with convective events producing high rainfall intensities. The aim of the present study is to analyse the 12–14 September 2006 flash flood event within the framework of the characteristics of flood events in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (IBC. To achieve this purpose all flood events occurred between 1996 and 2005 have been analysed. Rainfall and radar data have been introduced into a GIS, and a classification of the events has been done. A distinction of episodes has been made considering the spatial coverage of accumulated rainfall in 24 h, and the degree of the convective precipitation registered. The study case can be considered as a highly convective one, with rainfalls covering all the IBC on the 13th of September. In that day 215.9 mm/24 h were recorded with maximum intensities above 130 mm/h. A complete meteorological study of this event is also presented. In addition, as this is an episode with a high lightning activity it has been chosen to be studied into the framework of the FLASH project. In this way, a comparison between this information and raingauge data has been developed. All with the goal in mind of finding a relation between lightning density, radar echoes and amounts of precipitation. Furthermore, these studies improve our knowledge about thunderstorms systems.

Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

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Chen Cao

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

A case study on the diagnosis and consequences of flash floods in south-western Romania: The upper basin of Desnatui River

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Morosanu Gabriela Adina

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper examines the flash floods that may appear in a representative river basin occupying the south-western Romania and also feature an example of the most recent flash flood from 2005-2006, more specifically, its causes and consequences. In order to accomplish the objectives, hydrological data were used to identify the characteristics of the floods. Finally, the case study of the flash flood was delivered through the field research, observational method, discussion with the authorities and investigation of the meteorological and hydrological available data. The research offers an insight on the dimension of damages triggered by a flash flood event, based on the statistical data provided by the village hall and the few remaining places preserving the traces of the floods (houses, bridges. Because we could not provide all the necessary data in order to determine the frequency and scale of such risk phenomena, the analysis is assessed on general hydrological statistics of flood events between 1964 to 2011. By leading the research, it resulted that the specific feature of the upper basin of Desnatui River is its temporary drainage and that in the periods of high flow, the capacity of the river channels is diminshed and the floods may occur. The paper succeeds to revive the insufficient scientific concerns on this kind of hydrological risks issued in the space occupied by the upper basin of Desnatui River and eventually, to supply the need for such study in the context of modern hydrological research preoccupations.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

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Zafar, Sumaira

2016-07-01

Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

Integration of social perception in flash flood risk management for resilience improvement

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Diez-Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina-Cantos, Jorge

2015-04-01

Spain is, behind Switzerland, the second most mountainous country in Europe, which determines that after the occurrence of heavy or intense rainfall events, a fast hydrological response takes place due to steep slopes and strong hydrological connectivity. As a result, flash floods are, among natural hazards, the main social risk in Spain. In fact, they have provoked some of the greatest natural disasters in recent history of the country (e.g. Yebra and Almoguera in 1995, Biescas in 1996 or Badajoz in 1997, which totalized more than 200 deceased in the last decades). This work is focused on the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which we have been studying flash floods, under the consideration of different perspectives and using different approaches, for the past 20 years; and in which the regional government has recently approved the Civil Protection Plan.In this research, we examine social perception of flash floodsthrough surveys and interviews; one turn previous to the communication plan and other one after this dissemination activities to population. To this end, the individual and groupal differences were explored, by taking into account socio-demographic variables. In addition, we have considered psychological and material dimensions of vulnerability associated to flood risk, as well as to the emotional dimension through the consideration of psyco-environmental variables.Thus, this research aims to identify what aspects of the social perception differs from scientific/technical knowledge acquired which, in turn, may decrease the efficiency of a risk mitigation plan or even determine its failure. To minimize this lack of harmony, and at the same time to increase awareness of population, we propose a risk communication plan to improve preparedness of the community. To this end, we propose an approach in which messages reach the population quickly and in an understandable way. In this regard, risk communication is based on the integration of suitable

Disaster management in flash floods in Leh (Ladakh: A case study

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Preeti Gupta

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background: On August 6, 2010, in the dark of the midnight, there were flash floods due to cloud burst in Leh in Ladakh region of North India. It rained 14 inches in 2 hours, causing loss of human life and destruction. The civil hospital of Leh was badly damaged and rendered dysfunctional. Search and rescue operations were launched by the Indian Army immediately after the disaster. The injured and the dead were shifted to Army Hospital, Leh, and mass casualty management was started by the army doctors while relief work was mounted by the army and civil administration. Objective: The present study was done to document disaster management strategies and approaches and to assesses the impact of flash floods on human lives, health hazards, and future implications of a natural disaster. Materials and Methods: The approach used was both quantitative as well as qualitative. It included data collection from the primary sources of the district collectorate, interviews with the district civil administration, health officials, and army officials who organized rescue operations, restoration of communication and transport, mass casualty management, and informal discussions with local residents. Results: 234 persons died and over 800 were reported missing. Almost half of the people who died were local residents (49.6% and foreigners (10.2%. Age-wise analysis of the deaths shows that the majority of deaths were reported in the age group of 25-50 years, accounting for 44.4% of deaths, followed by the 11-25-year age group with 22.2% deaths. The gender analysis showed that 61.5% were males and 38.5% were females. A further analysis showed that more females died in the age groups <10 years and ≥50 years. Conclusions: Disaster preparedness is critical, particularly in natural disasters. The Army′s immediate search, rescue, and relief operations and mass casualty management effectively and efficiently mitigated the impact of flash floods, and restored normal

An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture–data assimilation

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L. Cenci

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture–data assimilation, SM–DA into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM–DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer – ASCAT, characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1 mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM–DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014–February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM–DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM–DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be

An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture-data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

2017-11-01

The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture-data assimilation, SM-DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM-DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer - ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM-DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014-February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM-DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM-DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further

The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

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Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Moncoulon, David; Pons, Frédéric

2017-11-01

Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall-runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes - typically discharges or return periods - at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies). The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall-runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods

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M. Šálek

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min, then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation. Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.

Spatial interpolation of GPS PWV and meteorological variables over the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia during 2013 Klang Valley Flash Flood

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Suparta, Wayan; Rahman, Rosnani

2016-02-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers are widely installed throughout the Peninsular Malaysia, but the implementation for monitoring weather hazard system such as flash flood is still not optimal. To increase the benefit for meteorological applications, the GPS system should be installed in collocation with meteorological sensors so the precipitable water vapor (PWV) can be measured. The distribution of PWV is a key element to the Earth's climate for quantitative precipitation improvement as well as flash flood forecasts. The accuracy of this parameter depends on a large extent on the number of GPS receiver installations and meteorological sensors in the targeted area. Due to cost constraints, a spatial interpolation method is proposed to address these issues. In this paper, we investigated spatial distribution of GPS PWV and meteorological variables (surface temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) by using thin plate spline (tps) and ordinary kriging (Krig) interpolation techniques over the Klang Valley in Peninsular Malaysia (longitude: 99.5°-102.5°E and latitude: 2.0°-6.5°N). Three flash flood cases in September, October, and December 2013 were studied. The analysis was performed using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) to determine the accuracy and reliability of the interpolation techniques. Results at different phases (pre, onset, and post) that were evaluated showed that tps interpolation technique is more accurate, reliable, and highly correlated in estimating GPS PWV and relative humidity, whereas Krig is more reliable for predicting temperature and rainfall during pre-flash flood events. During the onset of flash flood events, both methods showed good interpolation in estimating all meteorological parameters with high accuracy and reliability. The finding suggests that the proposed method of spatial interpolation techniques are capable of handling limited data sources with high

Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

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Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Central Europe was affected by extreme flash floods in summer 2016 triggered by short, high-intensity storm cells. Besides fluvial runoff, local pluvial floods appear to increase recently. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) surface runoff and pluvial flooding is assessed using a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model for the severely affected municipality of Schwertberg, Upper Austria. In this small catchment several flooding events occurred in the last years, where the most severe event occurred during summer 2016. Several areas could only be reached after the flood wave subsided with observed flood marks up to one meter. The modeled catchment is intensively cultivated with maize, sugar beets, winter wheat and soy on the hillside and hence highly vulnerable to water erosion. The average inclination is relatively steep with 15 % leading to high flow velocities of surface runoff associated with large amounts of transported sediments. To assess the influence of land use and soil conservation on flash floods, field experiments with a portable irrigation spray installation were carried out at different locations. The test plots were subjected to rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour lasting, rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Surface runoff was collected and measured in a tank and water samples were taken to determine the suspended material load. Large differences of runoff coefficients were determined depending on the agricultural management. The largest discharge was measured in a maize field, where surface runoff occurred immediately after start of irrigation. The determined runoff coefficients ranged from 0.22 for soy up to 0.65 for maize for the same soil type and inclination. The conclusion that runoff is

The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

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G. Le Bihan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall–runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes – typically discharges or return periods – at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies. The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall–runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

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Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

2015-04-01

Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

Analysis on causes of flash flood in Jeddah city (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of 2009 and 2011 using multi-sensor remote sensing data and GIS

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Ahmed M. Youssef

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The Jeddah city is located in a coastal plain area, in the middle of the western side of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, bounded by the Red Sea to the west and mountains to the east. Jeddah city receives rainfall runoff from the foothills through different drainage pathways (wadis. During intense rainfall events, runoff flows westward from the hills and mountains towards the Red Sea, causing flash floods in the urban areas along the pathways of these wadis. Two major flash flood events occurred in Jeddah city during 20 November 2009 - January 2011. These events were characterized by rainfall precipitation values of 70 and 111 mm, respectively. Each flash flood event has duration of three hours. The impact of these two flood events have been disastrous causing extensive flooding that killed 113 people in 2009 and damaged infrastructure and property (more than 10,000 homes and 17,000 vehicles. This study deals with the analysis of the different factors that caused these flash flood events. The results indicate that the causes of these floods are related to a number of factors which play as a major contribution to the worsening of the flood disaster. These factors were classified into the following: geomorphological features, anthropogenic activities (urban changes, network and catchment factors, and rainfall and climatic changes factors. The climatic changes have a major impact on the rainfall intensity and will appear more in the future. Other factors related to the wadis tributaries are narrow passes, and high slope of the wadi has additional impacts in the flash floods in the area. The anthropogenic activities include the proliferation of slums and construction in the valleys coupled with the lack of suitable water streams to accommodate the amount of water flowing and the presence of dirt led to the direction of flow.

Natural hazards on alluvial fans: the debris flow and flash flood disaster of December 1999, Vargas state, Venezuela

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Larsen, Matthew C.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L.S.; Torres-Sierra, Heriberto; Sylva, Walter F.

2001-01-01

Large populations live on or near alluvial fans in locations such as Los Angeles, California, Salt Lake City, Utah, Denver, Colorado, and lesser known areas such as Sarno, Italy, and Vargas, Venezuela. Debris flows and flash floods occur episodically in these alluvial fan environments, and place many communities at high risk during intense and prolonged rainfall. In December 1999, rainstorms induced thousands of landslides along the Cordillera de la Costa, Vargas, Venezuela. Rainfall accumulation of 293 mm during the first 2 weeks of December was followed by an additional 911 mm of rainfall on December 14 through 16. Debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll of as many as 30,000 people. Flash floods and debris flows caused severe property destruction on alluvial fans at the mouths of the coastal mountain drainage network. In time scales spanning thousands of years, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are dynamic zones of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise abruptly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide practically the only flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. KEY TERMS: Debris flows, flash floods, alluvial fans, natural hazards, landslides, Venezuela

Element Geochemical Analysis of the Contribution of Aeolian Sand to Suspended Sediment in Desert Stream Flash Floods

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Xiaopeng Jia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream.

Element geochemical analysis of the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment in desert stream flash floods.

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Jia, Xiaopeng; Wang, Haibing

2014-01-01

The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream.

A GIS-Based Model for the analysis of an urban flash flood and its hydro-geomorphic response. The Valencia event of 1957

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Portugués-Mollá, I.; Bonache-Felici, X.; Mateu-Bellés, J. F.; Marco-Segura, J. B.

2016-10-01

Flash floods are recurrent events around the Mediterranean region. Extreme episodes activate hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes with low frequency. In urban environments, the complexity becomes higher due to the existence of very quick-response runoff. However, immediate recovery works remove the urban marks. After a short time both the significance and magnitude of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. It is necessary to exploit this source typology in order to draw flood sketches when events far in time may lack a sufficiently rich database. This is particularly the case for the Valencia flash flood (October 1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (Eastern Spain). It left numerous pieces of hydro-geomorphic evidence, but its tracks were covered a short while after the flood. In any case, it remains part of a non-systematic legacy that has not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water marks and administrative records. Paradoxically, despite being considered a milestone in metropolitan territorial planning (the river was definitely diverted), an accurate reconstruction of the hydraulic behaviour was required from an integrated point of view. To this aim, the development of a GIS-Based Model enabled the utilisation of the above-mentioned materials. This non-conventional information was treated jointly from a new perspective. It provided database support through a vast amount of organised, structured and georeferenced information about the 1957 event. In a second stage, the GBM made it possible to characterise the Turia urban reach and interpret both the hydro-geomorphic (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition, etc.) and hydraulic (urban streams along the streets, flow directions, flood extent, levees breaks, overflows

The flash flood of October 2011 in the Magra River basin (Italy): rainstorm characterisation and flood response analysis

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Marchi, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Crema, Stefano; Lucía, Ana; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide

2013-04-01

On 25 October 2011, the Magra River, a stream of northwest Italy outflowing into the Ligurian Sea, was affected by a flash flood, which caused severe economic damage and loss of lives. The catchment covers an area of 1717 km2, of which 605 km2 are drained by the Vara River, the major tributary of the Magra River. The flood was caused by an intense rainstorm which lasted approximately 20 hours. The most intense phase lasted about 8 hours, with rainfall amounts up to around 500 mm. The largest rainfall depths (greater than 300 mm) occurred in a narrow southwest - northeast oriented belt covering an area of approximately 400 km2. This flash flood was studied by analysing rainstorm characteristics, runoff response and geomorphic effects. The rainfall fields used in the analysis are based on data from the Settepani weather radar antenna (located at around 100 km from the study basin) and the local rain gauge network. Radar observations and raingauge data were merged to obtain rainfall estimates at 30 min with a resolution of 1 km2. River stage and discharge rating curves are available for few cross-sections on the main channels. Post-flood documentation includes the reconstruction of peak discharge by means of topographic surveys and application of the slope-conveyance method in 34 cross-sections, observations on the geomorphic effects of the event - both in the channel network and on the hillslopes - and the assessment of the timing of the flood based on interviews to eyewitnesses. Regional authorities and local administrations contributed to the documentation of the flood by providing hydrometeorological data, civil protection volunteers accounts, photos and videos recorded during and immediately after the flood. A spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model, fed with rainfall estimates obtained by the radar-derived observations, was used to check the consistency of field-derived peak discharges and to derive the time evolution of the flood. The assessment of unit

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

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Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

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Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

2017-04-01

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

Brief communication: On-site data collection of damage caused by flash floods: Experiences from Braunsbach, Germany, in May/June 2016

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Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret

2017-04-01

At the end of May and beginning of June 2016, several municipalities in Southern Germany suffered from severe flash floods and debris flows which have been triggered by intense rainfall in Central Europe. Overall, the insured losses of these events amounted to EUR 1.2 billion in Germany. Especially the strong and unexpected flash flood on May 29th in Braunsbach (Baden Wurttemberg) - a small village counting about 1,000 residents - attracted media and policymakers due to its devastating character. The understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex-post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information, linking process intensities to damage by using adequate methods of data gathering. Thus, on-site data collection was carried out after the flash flood event in Braunsbach, using open source software as helpful and efficient tool for data acquisition and evaluation. A digital survey was designed and conducted by a team of five researchers who investigated all buildings affected by water and debris flows. The collected data includes an estimation of a particular damage class, the inundation depth, and other relevant information. A post - hoc data analysis was done with R 3.3.1 and QGIS 2.14.3, performing both, a Random Forest Model (RF) and Random Generalized Linear Model (RGLM) as well as preparing a Spearman's rank correlation matrix. For visual interpretation and better overview of the study area and analysis results, a "process intensity" map was created, revealing important links of damage driving factors. We find that not only the water depth, which is often considered as only damage driving factor in riverine flood loss modelling, but also the exposition of a building to the flow direction and susceptible building parts like e.g. shop windows seem to be risk factors in flash-flood prone regions. Although no significant correlations were found, the analyses indicate that also building material (i.e. half-timbered or masonry) and structural

Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

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Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

Meteorological analysis of flash floods in Artvin (NE Turkey on 24 August 2015

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H. Baltaci

2017-07-01

Full Text Available On 24 August 2015 intense rainfall episodes generated flash floods and landslides on the eastern Black Sea coast of Turkey. As a consequence of the heavy rainstorm activity over Artvin and its surroundings (NE Turkey, 11 people died and economic losses totaled a million dollars. Over the 6 h of the event (from 05:00 to 11:00 UTC, total accumulated rainfall amounts of 136, 64, and 109 mm were measured in the Hopa, Arhavi, and Borçka settlements of Artvin city, respectively. This study comprehensively investigates the meteorological characteristics of those flash floods. In terms of synoptic mechanisms, the cutoff surface low from the summer Asian monsoon settled over the eastern Black Sea. After two days of quasistationary conditions of this cyclone, sea surface temperatures (SSTs reached 27.5 °C (1.5 °C higher than normal and low-level moisture convergence developed. In addition, transfer of moisture by warm northerly flows from the Black Sea and relatively cool southerly flows from the land coasts of the Artvin district exacerbated the unstable conditions and thus played a significant role in the development of deep convective cells. Severe rainstorms as well as the slope instability of the region triggered landslides and worsened flood damages in the Artvin area. This study supports conventional weather analysis, satellite images, and forecast model output to alert forecasters to the potential for heavy rainfall.

The use of geostationary satellite based rainfall estimation and rainfall-runoff modelling for regional flash flood assessment

OpenAIRE

Suseno, Dwi Prabowo Yuga

2013-01-01

The availability of rainfall triggered hazard information such as flash flood is crucial in the flood disaster management and mitigation. However, providing that information is mainly hampered by the shortage of data because of the sparse, uneven or absence the hydrological or meteorological observation. Remote sensing techniques that make frequent observations with continuous spatial coverage provide useful information for detecting the hydrometeorological phenomena such as rainfall and floo...

Lessons from the autumn 2014 flash floods in the city of Nîmes and its neighborhood (France: behavior of several mitigation dams and hydrological analysis

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Fouchier Catherine

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Languedoc area, in Southern France, is prone to autumnal flash floods which are characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. To cope with this threat, the local authorities have chosen to build several dams on the main dangerous rivers of the area. We have focused on the flood mitigation facilities of two operators: the City of Nîmes and the Gardons Rivers Managing authority. After the catastrophic flash flood of October 1988, the city of Nîmes built flood mitigation dams on many of its high-risk streams. These flood barriers worked several times during the intense rainfalls of autumn 2014. The on-site conclusions drawn from these floods and the computation carried out with hydrological models confirmed how well the dams functioned. In 2010, the Gardons Rivers Managing authority built a flood mitigation dam on the Esquielle River to protect the village of Saint-Geniès-de-Malgoirès. The spillway of this dam worked for the first time in the autumn of 2014. We analyzed one of the major floods monitored on that occasion at its outlet. The goals of this study are: (i to evaluate dams efficiency and (ii to test, on a catchment which was not used for its calibration, the AIGA flash flood warning method, which was developed by IRSTEA.

Preparatory investigations for a public dialogue on flash flood risk in the Mehlemer Bach catchment, Germany

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Seydel, Elena; Turley, Michael; Becht, Michael; Heckmann, Tobias

2013-04-01

On July 3rd, 2010, an extreme precipitation event occurred in the municipality of Wachtberg at the southern urban fringe of the Federal City of Bonn. The 30-min intensity of the torrential rain was estimated to represent a 1000 year event according to the KOSTRA dataset (German Meteorological Service, DWD). Rapid overland flow and the exceedance of the design values of the sewerage system caused a flash flood in the Mehlemer Bach catchment. Roughly 400 buildings were affected in its lower, urbanized part, and it took over two weeks to clear the damage. Similar flash flood events have been recorded in the same catchment regularly since the year 1693, three times in the last 80 years alone. The fact that, in case of the 2010 event, the official weather warning was released almost simultaneously to the beginning of the downpour highlights the urgent need for preparative action in the longer term. Flash flood risk mitigation relies, among others, on risk awareness and preparedness of residents. One aim of this study is to analyse the current risk communication in the drainage area of Mehlemer Bach through questionnaires and expert interviews, which will provide a good basis for an open dialogue between residents and the authorities. There is an urgent need for practical and accessible advice, and it must be ensured that the resources and capabilities of the individuals involved are taken into consideration. In addition, we compare a hazard map of the area to mental maps drawn by the local population in order to assess their risk perception.

Understanding Flash Flood Generation in the Arid Region of the Dead Sea

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Merz, R.; Hennig, H.; Rödiger, T.; Laronne, J. B.

2017-12-01

The arid region of the Dead Sea is prone by flash floods. Such flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are impressive. Generated within minutes, the peak unit discharge can be as high as 25 m³/s km². Floods are the main mechanism supplying water to alluvial aquifers, forming fluvial landscapes including canyons and often causing damage to humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Existing hydrological models in this region focus on peak discharges. However, these models are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where floods occur require consideration. Therefore, a measurement network of rain gauges and level loggers to monitor runoff was installed in the beginning of the 2015/16 hydrological season in the tributaries of Wadi Arugot. The Arugot catchment is one of the largest ephemeral Wadis draining to the western shoreline of the Dead Sea at 450 m bsl. Due to the high gradient in elevation, the climate within the basin ranges from semiarid in the Judean Mountains, to hyper-arid near the Dead Sea with respective mean annual rainfall of 650 and 50 mm. The installed rain gauge network in the mountains is more dense compared to the Dead Sea area. Arid to semiarid catchments have different runoff generation processes compared to humid regions due local storm rainfall, low density of vegetation cover as well as patchy and shallow soil. These characteristics limit the contribution of groundwater flow, saturated overland flow and shallow subsurface flow, and therefore Hortonian overland flow is the most important contributor to overland flow. First analyses of the runoff data have shown that the storage capacity in the mountain area is lower compared to the more arid region. This is an evidence of high transmission losses in the coarse gravel wadi bed, therefore having a high permeability. The rain event duration and the amount of

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

2015-01-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

Calibration of commercial microwave link derived- rainfall and its relevance to flash flood occurrence in the Dead Sea area

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Eshel, Adam; Alpert, Pinhas; Raich, Roi; Laronne, Jonathan; Merz, Ralf; Geyer, Stefan; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2016-04-01

Flash floods are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid areas such as the Dead Sea. These floods are generated due to a combination of short lasting, yet intense rainfall and typical low infiltration rates. The rare flow events in ephemeral rivers have significant importance in the replenishment of groundwater via transmission losses and in sustaining the vivid ecology of drylands. In some cases, flash floods cause severe damage to infrastructure as well as to private property, constituting a threat to human life. The temporal variation of rainfall intensity is the main driver generating the majority of flash floods in the Judean Desert, hence its monitoring is crucial in this area as in other remote arid areas worldwide. Cellular communication towers are profusely located. Commercial Microwave Links (CML) attenuation data obtained by cellular companies can be used for environmental monitoring. Rain is one of the most effective meteorological phenomena to attenuate a CML signal which, unlike radar backscatter, relates to near-surface conditions and is, therefore, suitable for surface hydrology. A 16 km CML crosses the Wadi Ze'elim drainage basin (~250 square kilometers), at the outlet of which the discharge is calculated using the Manning formula. The hydrometric data include accurate longitudinal and cross sectional measurements, water level and importantly mean water surface velocity when present during a flash flood. The latter is first-ever obtained in desert flash floods by portable, radar-based surface velocimetry. Acquisition of water velocity data is essential to avoid assuming a constant roughness coefficient, thereby more accurately calculating water discharge. Calibrating the CML-rain intensity, derived from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)'s power law, is necessary to correlate the surface hydrologic response to the link. Our calibration approach is as follows: all the Israel Meteorological Service C-band radar cells over the CML

A UAV based system for real time flash flood monitoring in desert environments using Lagrangian microsensors

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed

2013-05-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Most casualties could be avoided with advance warning, for which real time monitoring is critical. While satellite-based high resolution weather forecasts can help predict floods to a certain extent, they are not reliable enough, as flood models depend on a large number of parameters that cannot be estimated beforehand. In this article, we present a novel flood sensing architecture to monitor large scale desert hydrological basins surrounding metropolitan areas, based on unmanned air vehicles. The system relies on Lagrangian (mobile) microsensors, that are released by a swarm of UAVs. A preliminary testbed implementing this technology is briefly described, and future research directions and problems are discussed. © 2013 IEEE.

Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-09-01

Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

A GIS-based model for the hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction of historical flash-floods in urban areas. The case of the river Turia in Valencia (1957)

Science.gov (United States)

Portugués Mollá, Iván; Felici, Xavier Bonache i.; Mateu Bellés, Joan F.; Segura, Juan B. Marco

2015-04-01

a more effective and accurate risk management within the Valencian metropolitan area. The development of a GIS-based model enables the utilization of these materials, most of them unpublished. This non-systematic information can be treated jointly from a new perspective. In short, this model facilitates the provision of a database through a vast amount of organized, structured and georeferenced information about the event. In a second stage, it makes possible to interpret the hydro-geomorphic processes from the 1957 event (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition processes…) and hydraulic processes (main flow encroachment versus quasi-hydrostatic-flood, or 1D versus 2D flood behavior), which can be identified in order to obtain georeferenced information about spatial variability, directional information of flows and point distribution of water levels and flooded points. It is also necessary to carry out photo-interpretation works to clarify some unresolved issues with the objective of establishing the real order of magnitude of the flash-flood concerning the discharge rank. In the same way, some other elements can be identified such as urban streams along the streets, levees overtopping and breaks, flooded area, etc. Lastly, in the future the GIS database will enable to obtain a more accurate both hydraulic mathematical modelling and calibration/validation.

Rapid proliferation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae during freshwater flash floods in French Mediterranean coastal lagoons.

Science.gov (United States)

Esteves, Kevin; Hervio-Heath, Dominique; Mosser, Thomas; Rodier, Claire; Tournoud, Marie-George; Jumas-Bilak, Estelle; Colwell, Rita R; Monfort, Patrick

2015-11-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae of the non-O1/non-O139 serotype are present in coastal lagoons of southern France. In these Mediterranean regions, the rivers have long low-flow periods followed by short-duration or flash floods during and after heavy intense rainstorms, particularly at the end of the summer and in autumn. These floods bring large volumes of freshwater into the lagoons, reducing their salinity. Water temperatures recorded during sampling (15 to 24°C) were favorable for the presence and multiplication of vibrios. In autumn 2011, before heavy rainfalls and flash floods, salinities ranged from 31.4 to 36.1‰ and concentrations of V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, and V. cholerae varied from 0 to 1.5 × 10(3) most probable number (MPN)/liter, 0.7 to 2.1 × 10(3) MPN/liter, and 0 to 93 MPN/liter, respectively. Following heavy rainstorms that generated severe flash flooding and heavy discharge of freshwater, salinity decreased, reaching 2.2 to 16.4‰ within 15 days, depending on the site, with a concomitant increase in Vibrio concentration to ca. 10(4) MPN/liter. The highest concentrations were reached with salinities between 10 and 20‰ for V. parahaemolyticus, 10 and 15‰ for V. vulnificus, and 5 and 12‰ for V. cholerae. Thus, an abrupt decrease in salinity caused by heavy rainfall and major flooding favored growth of human-pathogenic Vibrio spp. and their proliferation in the Languedocian lagoons. Based on these results, it is recommended that temperature and salinity monitoring be done to predict the presence of these Vibrio spp. in shellfish-harvesting areas of the lagoons. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Optimisation of Lagrangian Flash Flood Microsensors Dropped by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

KAUST Repository

Abdulaal, Mohammed

2014-05-01

Abstract Physical Sciences and Engineering Division Mechanical Engineering Department Master of Science Optimisation of Lagrangian Flash Flood Microsensors Dropped by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle by Mohammed Abdulaal Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, ash ood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Classical sensing solutions such as xed wireless sensor networks or satellite imagery are either too expensive or too inaccurate. Nevertheless, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles equipped with mobile microsensors could be capable of sensing ash oods in real time for a low overall cost, saving lives and greatly improving the e ciency of the emergency response. Using ood simulation data, we show that this system could be used to detect ash oods. We also present an ongoing implementation of this system using 3D printed sensors and sensor delivery systems on a UAV testbed as well as some preliminary results.

Use of geostationary meteorological satellite images in convective rain estimation for flash-flood forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Wardah, T.; Abu Bakar, S. H.; Bardossy, A.; Maznorizan, M.

2008-07-01

SummaryFrequent flash-floods causing immense devastation in the Klang River Basin of Malaysia necessitate an improvement in the real-time forecasting systems being used. The use of meteorological satellite images in estimating rainfall has become an attractive option for improving the performance of flood forecasting-and-warning systems. In this study, a rainfall estimation algorithm using the infrared (IR) information from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (GMS-5) is developed for potential input in a flood forecasting system. Data from the records of GMS-5 IR images have been retrieved for selected convective cells to be trained with the radar rain rate in a back-propagation neural network. The selected data as inputs to the neural network, are five parameters having a significant correlation with the radar rain rate: namely, the cloud-top brightness-temperature of the pixel of interest, the mean and the standard deviation of the temperatures of the surrounding five by five pixels, the rate of temperature change, and the sobel operator that indicates the temperature gradient. In addition, three numerical weather prediction (NWP) products, namely the precipitable water content, relative humidity, and vertical wind, are also included as inputs. The algorithm is applied for the areal rainfall estimation in the upper Klang River Basin and compared with another technique that uses power-law regression between the cloud-top brightness-temperature and radar rain rate. Results from both techniques are validated against previously recorded Thiessen areal-averaged rainfall values with coefficient correlation values of 0.77 and 0.91 for the power-law regression and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique, respectively. An extra lead time of around 2 h is gained when the satellite-based ANN rainfall estimation is coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to forecast a flash-flood event in the upper Klang River Basin.

Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

2016-04-01

The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low

Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

Science.gov (United States)

Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

2012-04-01

Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using

The 2-3 November 2015 flood of the Sió River (NE Iberian Peninsula): a flash flood that turns into a mudflow downstream

Science.gov (United States)

Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Rodríguez, Rafael; Tuset, Jordi; Castelltort, Xavier; Barriendos, Mariano; Pino, David; Mazón, Jordi

2016-04-01

Historical and recent evidence shows that many floods in the interior of Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) usually have such a great sediment load that can even alter the hydraulic behaviour of the flow. This is especially true in catchments with a great proportion of agricultural soils, which are the main source of sediment. The night of 2-3 November 2015 torrential rains fell on the headwaters of the Sió River catchment (508 km2); the subsequent flood caused four deaths and many damages along the stream. The hydrological, hydraulic and sedimentary characteristics of this recent flood have been analysed in order to gain a better insight on the characteristics of the major historical floods in the same catchment. The rainfall height on the headwaters was between 139 and 146 mm in ten hours, with a maximum intensity of about 50 mm·h-1. In the rest of the catchment it rained much less (22-71 mm). The agricultural soils in the headwaters show evidence of intense erosion by laminar and concentrated Hortonian overland flow in their superficial layer (Ap1; 10 cm), which uncovered the more compact underlying layer (Ap2). The peak flow in the headwaters (Oluges) was 90 m3·s-1 (that is, a specific peak flow near 1 m3·s-1·km-2) and it diminished downstream: 40 m3·s-1 in the centre of the catchment (Oluges + 27 km) and 15 m3·s-1 in the outlet (Oluges + 54 km). The suspended sediment load was 10-15% in volume in the headwaters and, judging from recorded images and eyewitnesses, it increased as the flow moved downstream, turning the flash flood into a mudflow. This concentration gain was most probably caused by the flood wave's water loss due to the dryness of the riverbed and translated in an increased viscosity that ultimately altered the hydraulic behaviour of the flow, slowing it down. This process of water loss has been observed in flash floods in dry riverbeds in arid and semiarid areas such as Negev (Israel) and Atacama (Chile). Historical floods in neighbouring

Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

2016-04-01

Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Zhane; Liu, Min; He, Qing

2016-06-01

Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Laser-induced ion emission during polymer deposition from a flash-frozen water ice matrix

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodrigo, K.; Toftmann, Bo; Schou, Jørgen

2004-01-01

Flash-frozen water solutions of 1% weight PEG (polyethylene glycol) at -50 degreesC were used as targets at a laser wavelength of 355 nm for polymer deposition with Matrix-Assisted Pulsed Laser Evaporation (MAPLE). For medium laser fluences the transfer of PEG material to the substrate was accomp......Flash-frozen water solutions of 1% weight PEG (polyethylene glycol) at -50 degreesC were used as targets at a laser wavelength of 355 nm for polymer deposition with Matrix-Assisted Pulsed Laser Evaporation (MAPLE). For medium laser fluences the transfer of PEG material to the substrate...

Effect of Flash Flood in the Distribution of Radionuclides of Ground Water and its Environmental Impacts, Wadi Naseib, Southwestern Sinai, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nada, A.A.; Talaat, S.M.; Abd El Maksoud, T.M.; ElAassy, I.E.; El Galy, M.M.; El Feky, M.G.; Ibrahim, E.M.

2011-01-01

Groundwater can either be extracted from bedrock (drilled wells) or from soil aquifer (dug wells). This study was carried out on four dug wells in two successive years. Water samples were collected in April 2010 (after January 2010 flash flood) and April 2011 (with no flash flood). Samples were prepared for gamma spectrometry using hyper pure germanium detector. The results showed variations in the concentrations of 238 U and its decay series nuclides, 232 Th and 40 K. The activity concentration of 238 U was increased from 5 to 6 times after flash flood, while 232 Th was increased around 10 times. The activity concentrations of 214 Pb and 214 Bi were 2 to 9 times higher in 2011 than in 2010 waters. The 234 U/ 238 U ratio is usually more than one. The analyzed groundwater samples recorded higher effective dose than the recommended reference for drinking water by WHO (0.1 mSv/y). ICRP recommendations set the limit for public exposure as an effective dose of 1.0 mSv/y. In this context, the effective dose of the samples collected in April 2010 were higher than the ICRP limit, while the samples of April 2011 were lower than this limit.

A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Roux

2011-09-01

Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing. Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

A regional distributed hydrological modelling approach for flash-flood understanding and experimental design

Science.gov (United States)

Braud, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Roux, Hélène; Vannier, Olivier; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Viallet, Pierre; Boudevillain, Brice; Dartus, Denis; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2010-05-01

Flash floods represent the most destructive natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing around one billion Euros worth of damage in France over the last two decades. Flash floods are associated with extreme and rare rainfall events and usually occur in ungauged river basins. Amongst them, small-ungauged catchments are recognized as the most vulnerable to storm driven flash floods. In order to limit the damages to the population, there is a need to improve our understanding and the simulation tools for these events. In order to provide information over a whole region, hydrological models applicable at this scale, and able to take into account the spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics, must be proposed. This paper presents such a regional distributed approach applied to the 8-9 September 2002 extreme event which affected the Gard region in the south-east of France. In order to identify the variables and catchment characteristics which require improved knowledge, two distributed hydrological models were set up on a set of catchments, with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization and process representation. They were forced using radar data with a 1 km2 spatial resolution and 5 min time step. The model parameters were specified using the available information, namely a digital terrain model and a soil data base. The latter provides information about soil texture, soil porosity and soil depths. Soil hydraulic properties were defined using pedo-transfer functions. Data from a post-flood field survey of maximum peak discharge were used to assess the quality of the simulations. A reasonable agreement between modeled and observed values was obtained. Sensitivity studies were then performed to asses the respective impact of rainfall estimation and soil variability on the simulated discharge. The analysis shows that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics and that high

Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

Science.gov (United States)

Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

2016-04-01

Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

2016-05-01

In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

Science.gov (United States)

Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2016-10-01

The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a

Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

Science.gov (United States)

Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-05-01

Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

Flood deposits and their heavy metal load - example of the Neckar river

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellmann, H.

1993-01-01

Flood deposits may develop from suspended solids under certain conditions, e.g. after the passage of a flood wave. Depending on the origin of the suspended material, the heavy metal load in these deposits varies considerably. Recent sediments deposited in the Neckar waterway after the flood of February/March 1990 are taken as an example to explain that it is necessary to consider the contamination load in relation to the grain size of the material. To this end, the heavy metal contents of the fine grain fraction (grain diameter [de

Bar deposition in glacial outburst floods: scaling, post-flood reworking, and implications for the geomorphological and sedimentary record

Science.gov (United States)

Marren, Philip

2016-04-01

The appearance of a flood deposit in the geomorphological and sedimentary record is a product of both the processes operating during the flood, and those that occur afterwards and which overprint the deposit with a record of 'normal' processes. This paper describes the creation and modification of jökulhlaup barforms in the Skeiðará river, relating the changes to post-flood fluvial processes and glacier retreat. Large compound bars formed from the amalgamation of unit bars up to 1.5 km long. Nearly half of the total discharge of the November 1996 jökulhlaup on Skeiðarársandur was discharged through the Skeiðará river. The flood deposits have been extensively reworked since, up until 2009 when the channel was abandoned, effectively leaving the Skeiðará as a terrace, when retreat of Skeiðarárjökull directed meltwater to the adjacent Gígjukvísl river system. Large compound bars formed in the flood channel, with their location governed by the macro-scale topography of the flood channel, and their size by upstream channel width in accordance with bar-scaling theory. Jökulhlaup bars are therefore scale invariant and formed in a similar fashion to braid bars in non-jökulhlaup braided rivers. Post-flood fragmentation and reworking of the bars consistently increased the length-width ratio of preserved bar fragments from approximately two and one half to over five. When combined with earlier work on the Skeiðará jökulhlaup bars, and studies of jökulhlaup deposits elsewhere on Skeiðarársandur these observations increase our understanding of the preservation potential and final form of jökulhlaup deposits and provide the basis for an improved model for the recognition of jökulhlaup deposits in the geomorphological and sedimentary record.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

Science.gov (United States)

Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

2014-03-01

A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

Comparative Study of Furnace and Flash Lamp Annealed Silicon Thin Films Grown by Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition

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Maheshwar Shrestha

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Low-temperature growth of microcrystalline silicon (mc-Si is attractive for many optoelectronic device applications. This paper reports a detailed comparison of optical properties, microstructure, and morphology of amorphous silicon (a-Si thin films crystallized by furnace annealing and flash lamp annealing (FLA at temperatures below the softening point of glass substrate. The initial a-Si films were grown by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD. Reflectance measurement indicated characteristic peak in the UV region ~280 nm for the furnace annealed (>550 °C and flash lamp annealed films, which provided evidence of crystallization. The film surface roughness increased with increasing the annealing temperature as well as after the flash lamp annealing. X-ray diffraction (XRD measurement indicated that the as-deposited samples were purely amorphous and after furnace crystallization, the crystallites tended to align in one single direction (202 with uniform size that increased with the annealing temperature. On the other hand, the flash lamp crystalized films had randomly oriented crystallites with different sizes. Raman spectroscopy showed the crystalline volume fraction of 23.5%, 47.3%, and 61.3% for the samples annealed at 550 °C, 650 °C, and with flash lamp, respectively. The flash lamp annealed film was better crystallized with rougher surface compared to furnace annealed ones.

Geochemical discrimination of five pleistocene Lava-Dam outburst-flood deposits, western Grand Canyon, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, C.R.; Poreda, R.J.; Nash, B.P.; Webb, R.H.; Cerling, T.E.

2004-01-01

Pleistocene basaltic lava dams and outburst-flood deposits in the western Grand Canyon, Arizona, have been correlated by means of cosmogenic 3He (3Hec) ages and concentrations of SiO2, Na2O, K2O, and rare earth elements. These data indicate that basalt clasts and vitroclasts in a given outburst-flood deposit came from a common source, a lava dam. With these data, it is possible to distinguish individual dam-flood events and improve our understanding of the interrelations of volcanism and river processes. At least five lava dams on the Colorado River failed catastrophically between 100 and 525 ka; subsequent outburst floods emplaced basalt-rich deposits preserved on benches as high as 200 m above the current river and up to 53 km downstream of dam sites. Chemical data also distinguishes individual lava flows that were collectively mapped in the past as large long-lasting dam complexes. These chemical data, in combination with age constraints, increase our ability to correlate lava dams and outburst-flood deposits and increase our understanding of the longevity of lava dams. Bases of correlated lava dams and flood deposits approximate the elevation of the ancestral river during each flood event. Water surface profiles are reconstructed and can be used in future hydraulic models to estimate the magnitude of these large-scale floods.

Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Kok, Aaron; Hassan, Quazi K

2017-10-14

The northeastern region of Bangladesh often experiences flash flooding during the pre-harvesting period of the boro rice crop, which is the major cereal crop in the country. In this study, our objective was to delineate the impact of the 2017 flash flood (that initiated on 27 March 2017) on boro rice using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS data. Initially, we opted to use Landsat-8 OLI data for mapping the damages; however, during and after the flooding event the acquisition of cloud free images were challenging. Thus, we used this data to map the cultivated boro rice acreage considering the planting to mature stages of the crop. Also, in order to map the extent of the damaged boro area, we utilized MODIS data as their 16-day composites provided cloud free information. Our results indicated that both the cultivated and damaged boro area estimates based on satellite data had strong relationships while compared to the ground-based estimates (i.e., r ² values approximately 0.92 for both cases, and RMSE of 18,374 and 9380 ha for cultivated and damaged areas, respectively). Finally, we believe that our study would be critical for planning and ensuring food security for the country.

Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

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Brianne Smith

2017-09-01

Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

Science.gov (United States)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Reconstruction and numerical modelling of a flash flood event: Atrani 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ciervo, F.; Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Bateman, A.

2012-04-01

The work intends to reproduce the flash-flood event that occurred in Atrani (Amalfi Coast - Southern Italy) on the 9 September 2010. In the days leading up to the event, intense low pressure system affected the North Europe attracting hot humid air masses from the Mediterranean areas and pushing them to the southern regions of Italy. These conditions contributed to the development of strong convective storm systems, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) type. The development of intense convective rain cells, over an extremely confined areas, leaded to a cumulative daily rainfall of 129.2 mm; the maximum precipitation in 1hr was 19.4mm. The Dragone river is artificially forced to flow underneath the urban estate of Atrani through a culvert until it finally flows out into the sea. In correspondence of the culvert inlet a minor fraction of the water discharge (5.9m^3/s), skimming over the channel cover, flowed on the street and invaded the village. The channelized flow generated overpressure involving the breaking of the cover of culvert slab and caused a new discharge inlet (20 m^3/s) on the street modifying the downstream flood dynamics. Information acquired, soon after the event, through the local people interviews and the field measurements significantly contributed to the rainfall event reconstruction and to the characterization of the induced effects. In absence of hydrometric data, the support of the amateur videos was of crucial importance for the hydraulic model development and calibration. A geomorphology based rainfall-runoff model, WFIUH type (Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Width Function), is implemented to extract the hydrograph of the hydrological event. All analysis are performed with GIS support basing on a Digital Terrain System (DTM) 5x5m. Two parameters have been used to calibrate the model: the average watershed velocity (Vmean = 0.08m/s) and hydrodynamic diffusivity (D=10E^-6 m^2/s). The model is calibrated basing on the peak discharge assessed value

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

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J.-C. Thouret

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows, and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials.

In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access

Flooding and Schools

Science.gov (United States)

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

2011-01-01

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

Dynamic Water Storage during Flash Flood Events in the Mountainous Area of Rio de Janeiro/Brazil - Case study: Piabanha River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Araujo, L.; Silva, F. P. D.; Moreira, D. M.; Vásquez P, I. L.; Justi da Silva, M. G. A.; Fernandes, N.; Rotunno Filho, O. C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods are characterized by a rapid rise in water levels, high flow rates and large amounts of debris. Several factors have relevance to the occurrence of these phenomena, including high precipitation rates, terrain slope, soil saturation degree, vegetation cover, soil type, among others. In general, the greater the precipitation intensity, the more likely is the occurrence of a significant increase in flow rate. Particularly on steep and rocky plains or heavily urbanized areas, relatively small rain rates can trigger a flash flood event. In addition, high rain rates in short time intervals can temporarily saturate the surface soil layer acting as waterproofing and favoring the occurrence of greater runoff rates due to non-infiltration of rainwater into the soil. Thus, although precipitation is considered the most important factor for flooding, the interaction between rainfall and the soil can sometimes be of greater importance. In this context, this work investigates the dynamic storage of water associated with flash flood events for Quitandinha river watershed, a tributary of Piabanha river, occurred between 2013 and 2014, by means of water balance analyses applied to three watersheds of varying magnitudes (9.25 km², 260 km² and 429 km²) along the rainy season under different time steps (hourly and daily) using remotely sensed and observational precipitation data. The research work is driven by the hypothesis of a hydrologically active bedrock layer, as the watershed is located in a humid region, having intemperate (fractured) rock layer, just below a shallow soil layer, in the higher part of the basin where steep slopes prevail. The results showed a delay of the variation of the dynamic storage in relation to rainfall peaks and water levels. Such behavior indicates that the surface soil layer, which is not very thick in the region, becomes rapidly saturated along rainfall events. Subsequently, the water infiltrates into the rocky layer and the water

Rainfall estimation in the context of post-event flash flood analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Delrieu, Guy; Boudevillain, Brice; Bouilloud, Ludovic

2010-05-01

Due to their spatial coverage and space-time resolution, operational weather radar networks offer unprecedented opportunities for the observation of flash flood generating storms. However, the radar rainfall estimation quality highly depends on the relative locations of the event and the radar(s). A mountainous environment obviously adds to the complexity of the radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). A pragmatic methodology was developed within the EC-funded HYDRATE project to take the best benefit of the existing rainfall observations (radar and raingauge data) for given flash-flood cases: 1) A precise documentation of the radar characteristics (location, parameters, operating protocol, data archives and processing) needs first to be established. The radar(s) detection domain(s) can then be characterized using the "hydrologic visibility" concepts (Pellarin et al. J Hydrometeor 3(5) 539-555 2002). 2) Rather dense raingauge observations (operational, amateur) are usually available at the event time scale while few raingauge time series exist at the hydrologic time steps. Such raingauge datasets need to be critically analysed; a geostatistical approach is proposed for this task. 3) A number of identifications can be implemented prior to the radar data re-processing: a) Special care needs to be paid to (residual) ground clutter which has a dramatic impact of radar QPE. Dry-weather maps and rainfall accumulation maps may help in this task. b) Various sources of power losses such as screening, wet radome, attenuation in rain need to be identified and quantified. It will be shown that mountain returns can be used to quantify attenuation effects at C-band. c) Radar volume data is required to characterize the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), eventually conditioned on rain type (convective, widespread). When such data is not available, knowledge of the 0°C isotherm and the scanning protocol may help detecting bright-band contaminations that critically

Impacts of channel deposition on the risk of flooding in a watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Ting-Yue, Hong; Chia-Ling, Chang

2017-04-01

Taiwan is located in East Asian where is always hit by typhoons. Typhoons usually bring huge amounts of rainfall and result in the problems of channel deposition. Deposition influences the functions of channel and increases the risk of flooding. The Luliao Reservoir Watershed is the case area in this study. It is the major water source for agricultural activity and domestic use. The objective of this study is to assess the possible impacts of channel deposition on the watershed environment. This study applies the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict the hydrologic responses and evaluate the risk of flooding. The results show that the decrease of cross section induced by deposition in a channel may increase the risk of flooding and impact the safety of watershed environment. Therefore, canal desilting is important in channel regulation. The discussion and analysis can be useful references for channel regulation.

Participatory responses to historical flash floods and their relevance for current risk reduction: a view from a post-communist country

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Raška, P.; Brázdil, Rudolf

2015-01-01

Roč. 47, č. 2 (2015), s. 166-178 ISSN 0004-0894 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : environmental hazards * perspective * disasters * vulnerability * resilience * state * flash flood * social response * participatory approach * community-based experience * documentary data Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.349, year: 2015

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

Science.gov (United States)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Combining hydraulic model, hydrogeomorphological observations and chemical analyses of surface waters to improve knowledge on karst flash floods genesis

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F. Raynaud

2015-06-01

Full Text Available During a flood event over a karst watershed, the connections between surface and ground waters appear to be complex ones. The karst may attenuate surface floods by absorbing water or contribute to the surface flood by direct contribution of karst waters in the rivers (perennial and overflowing springs and by diffuse resurgence along the hillslopes. If it is possible to monitor each known outlet of a karst system, the diffuse contribution is yet difficult to assess. Furthermore, all these connections vary over time according to several factors such as the water content of the soil and underground, the rainfall characteristics, the runoff pathways. Therefore, the contribution of each compartment is generally difficult to assess, and flood dynamics are not fully understood. To face these misunderstandings and difficulties, we analysed surface waters during six recent flood events in the Lirou watershed (a karst tributary of the Lez, in South of France. Because of the specific chemical signature of karst waters, chemical analyses can supply information about water pathways and flood dynamics. Then, we used the dilution law to combine chemical results, flow data and field observations to assess the dynamics of the karst component of the flood. To end, we discussed the surface or karst origin of the waters responsible for the apparent runoff coefficient rise during flash karst flood.

On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

Science.gov (United States)

Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2017-04-01

Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north

Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment - case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Costache, Romulus; Zaharia, Liliana

2017-06-01

Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 km2), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating

Mapping of sand deposition from 1993 midwest floods with electromagnetic induction measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitchen, N.R.; Sudduth, K.A.; Drummond, S.T.

1996-01-01

Sand deposition on river-bottom farmland was extensive from the 1993 Midwest floods. A technique coupling electromagnetic induction (EM) ground conductivity sensing and Global Positioning System (GPS) location data was used to map sand deposition depth at four sites in Missouri along the Missouri River. A strong relationship between EM reading and probe measured depth of sand deposition (r 2 values between 0.73-0.94) was found. This relationship differed significantly between sites, so calibration by ground-truthing was required for each sand deposition survey. An example of the sand deposition mapping using the EM/GPS system is shown for two 50-60 ha (125-150 ac) sites. Such maps can provide valuable detailed information for developing restoration plans for land affected by 1993 Midwest floods. (author)

Early Detection of Baby-Rain-Cell Aloft in a Severe Storm and Risk Projection for Urban Flash Flood

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Eiichi Nakakita

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In July 2008, five people were killed by a tragic flash flood caused by a local torrential heavy rainfall in a short time in Toga River. From this tragic accident, we realized that a system which can detect hazardous rain-cells in the earlier stage is strongly needed and would provide an additional 5 to 10 min for evacuation. By analyzing this event, we verified that a first radar echo aloft, by volume scan observation, is a practical and important sign for early warning of flash flood, and we named a first echo as a “baby-rain-cell” of Guerrilla-heavy rainfall. Also, we found a vertical vorticity criterion for identifying hazardous rain-cells and developed a heavy rainfall prediction system that has the important feature of not missing any hazardous rain-cell. Being able to detect heavy rainfall by 23.6 min on average before it reaches the ground, this system is implemented in XRAIN in the Kinki area. Additionally, to resolve the relationship between baby-rain-cell growth and vorticity behavior, we carried out an analysis of vorticity inside baby-rain-cells and verified that a pair of positive and negative vertical vortex tubes as well as an updraft between them existed in a rain-cell in the early stage.

Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Quang Nguyen

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

2010-12-01

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has

Missoula flood dynamics and magnitudes inferred from sedimentology of slack-water deposits on the Columbia Plateau, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, G.A.

1993-01-01

Sedimentological study of late Wisconsin, Missoula-flood slack-water sediments deposited along the Columbia and Tucannon Rivers in southern Washington reveals important aspects of flood dynamics. Most flood facies were deposited by energetic flood surges (velocities>6 m/sec) entering protected areas along the flood tract, or flowing up and then directly out of tributary valleys. True still-water facies are less voluminous and restricted to elevations below 230 m. High flood stages attended the initial arrival of the flood wave and were not associated with subsequent hydraulic ponding upslope from channel constrictions. Among 186 flood beds studied in 12 sections, 57% have bioturbated tops, and about half of these bioturbated beds are separated from overlying flood beds by nonflood sediments. A single graded flood bed was deposited at most sites during most floods. Sequences in which 2-9 graded beds were deposited during a single flood are restricted to low elevations. These sequences imply complex, multi-peaked hydrographs in which the first flood surge was generally the largest, and subsequent surges were attenuated by water already present in slack-water areas. Slack-water - sediment stratigraphy suggests a wide range of flood discharges and volumes. Of >40 documented late Wisconsin floods that inundated the Pasco Basin, only about 20 crossed the Palouse-Snake divide. Floods younger than the set-S tephras from Mount St.Helens were generally smaller than earlier floods of late Wisconsin age, although most still crossed the Palouse-Snake divide. These late floods primarily traversed the Cheney-Palouse scabland because stratigraphy of slack-water sediment along the Columbia River implies that the largest flood volumes did not enter the Pasco Basin by way of the Columbia River. 47 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs

Case studies of selected Project "Flash" events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. A. Nicolaides

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Flooding is a consequence of the prevailing meteorological situation, the intensity and duration of precipitation, geomorphology, human activities over a geographical region and other factors. Floods result in damage and destruction of infrastructure and private property and, in some cases, in fatalities. Flash floods are sudden and quite localized in extend, characterized by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short period of time and are distinguished from other floods by their degree of severity. The broader knowledge concerning flash floods is useful for the better understanding of the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, as well as the associated physical processes. The wider understanding of flashfloods can form part of an integrated system for short and very short forecasting of these events. In the present study, the synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic conditions during the development of a baroclinic depression which affected the area of Cyprus on 6 November 2005 are studied. The depression was associated with extreme weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms, a water spout and high precipitation accumulations. The results indicate the importance of the dynamic parameters in the system's development and the thermodynamic analysis has shown the convective potential of the atmosphere.

A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

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Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

2010-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the

Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

Science.gov (United States)

Borrell Estupina, V.; Raynaud, F.; Bourgeois, N.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Collet, L.; Haziza, E.; Servat, E.

2015-06-01

Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).

Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

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Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-11-01

SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

INFLUENCE OF NANOFILTRATION PRETREATMENT ON SCALE DEPOSITION IN MULTI-STAGE FLASH THERMAL DESALINATION PLANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiman E Al-Rawajfeh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Scale formation represents a major operational problem encountered in thermal desalination plants. In current installed plants, and to allow for a reasonable safety margin, sulfate scale deposition limits the top brine temperature (TBT in multi-stage flash (MSF distillers up to 110-112oC. This has significant effect on the unit capital, operational and water production cost. In this work, the influence of nanofiltration (NF pretreatment on the scale deposition potential and increasing TBT in MSF thermal desalination plants is modeled on the basis of mass transfer with chemical reaction of solutes in the brine. Full and partial NF-pretreatment of the feed water were investigated. TBT can be increased in MSF by increasing the percentage of NF-treated feed. Full NF pretreatment of the make-up allows TBT in the MSF plant to be raised up to 175oC in the case of di hybrid NF-MSF and up to 165oC in the case of tri hybrid NF-RO-MSF. The significant scale reduction is associated with increasing flashing range, unit recovery, unit performance, and will lead to reduction in heat transfer surface area, pumping power and therefore, water production cost.

Geospatial Analysis for the Determination of Hydro-Morphological Characteristics and Assessment of Flash Flood Potentiality in Arid Coastal Plains: A Case in Southwestern Sinai, Egypt

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Ahmed Wahid

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Coastal plains with a unique geographic setting and renewable natural resources are promising for sustainable development; however, these areas may be subjected to some environmental hazards due to their geological setting. One of those hazards is the seasonal flash flood that can threaten existing and future development projects in such critical areas. Southwestern Sinai, Egypt, is a coastal plain that is characterized by complex geological setting an arid climate with seasonal rainfall which can result in a high runoff. The aim of this work is to model spatially the runoff amount and density related to flash flood development and to create a flash flood hazard map of the plain as an example of coastal plain in a desert environment with large and complex hydrologic setting. In this research, ASTER images are used to develop a digital elevation model (DEM and land use/land cover (LULC data sets of the study area. Geographic information system (GIS was used to perform runoff and ash potential flood analyses of the created databases and to show distributed runoff and flooding potential in spatial maps. A module was created in a GIS environment to develop a flash flood potential index map. It was clear that the main two factors controlling runoff amounts and flash flood potential in such kinds of areas are the slope and soil types. The final dataset map procedure by this work can be very helpful in land use planning by highlighting the areas subjected to flash floods.    Análisis Geoespacial para Determinar las Características Hidromorfológicas y Evaluar las Inundaciones Potenciales en Llanuras Costeras Áridas: Caso de Estudio en el Suroccidente de Sinaí, Egipto  Resumen Las llanuras costeras que poseen recursos naturales renovables y una configuración geográfíca única son promisorias para el desarrollo sostenible. Estas áreas, sin embargo, son objeto de algunas amenazas ambientales debido a su escenario geológico. Una de

Mine waters of the flooded Příbram uranium deposit

OpenAIRE

Lusk, Karel

2010-01-01

From the Příbram deposit, which was the largest exploited uranium deposit in the Czech Republic, mine water has been drained under controlled conditions, treated and discharged into the Kocába River since the flooding of the deposit in October 2005. The amount of water drained in this way is determined at any particular moment by the volume of seepage from precipitation and surface water into the underground mine cavities. The draining of overbalance mine waters is carried out at two points t...

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Hydrological and sedimentary analysis of two recent flash floods in a Mediterranean basin with major changes in land uses and channel shape (Sió River, NE Iberian Peninsula)

OpenAIRE

Balasch Solanes, Josep Carles; García-Rodríguez, David; Tuset Mestre, Jordi; Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís; Rodríguez-Ochoa, Rafael; Jacquet, Eisharc; Barriendos Valve, Mariano; Castelltort Aiguabella, Xavier; Pino González, David

2017-01-01

Two important rain events occurred in November 2015 and November 2016 in the Sió River basin (150 km2), a small tributary of the Segre River, within the Ebro River basin (NE Iberian Peninsula), caused two considerable flash floods. Peer Reviewed

Occurrence of inter-eruption debris flow and hyperconcentrated flood-flow deposits on Vesuvio volcano, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Lirer, L.; Vinci, A.; Alberico, I.; Gifuni, T.; Bellucci, F.; Petrosino, P.; Tinterri, R.

2001-02-01

In the period between AD 79 and AD 472 eruptions, inter-eruption debris flow and hyperconcentrated-flood-flow deposits were deposited in the Somma-Vesuvio areas. These deposits, forming cliffs at the Torre Bassano and Torre Annunziata, were generated by highly erosive floods, whose erosive capacity was enhanced by acceleration due to the steepness of the volcano slopes. In this type of deposits were distinguished five depositional facies (from A to E) outcropping well at Torre Bassano where they are stacked in three fining-upward (FU) sequences, probably representing three forestepping — backstepping episodes in the emplacement area of gravity flows. These five facies from coarse to fine are interpreted to represent the downcurrent evolution of particular composite sediment gravity flows characterized by horizontal segregation of the main grain-size population. The blocking of these highly concentrated composite parent flows would first produce the deposition of the coarse front part to form facies A and then the overriding of this deposit by the bipartite flow, which constitutes the body of the flow. This flow is composed of a highly concentrated basal inertia carpet responsible for the deposition of facies B, C and D and an upper hyperconcentrated flood flow that forms facies E, through traction plus fallout processes, respectively. Finally, the occurrence of "lahar" type events at Somma-Vesuvio region even at present times is discussed.

The Effect of Deposit Temperature on the Catalytic SO2-to-SO3 Conversion in a Copper Flash Smelting Heat Recovery Boiler

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmusto, Juho; Vainio, Emil; Laurén, Tor; Lindgren, Mari

2018-02-01

The aim of the work was to study the catalytic role of copper flash smelter deposit in the SO2-to-SO3 conversion. In addition, the effect of process gas temperature at 548 K to 1173 K (275 °C to 900 °C) on the amount of SO3 formed was addressed both in the absence and presence of genuine copper flash smelter deposit. The SO3 conversion rate changed as a function of process gas temperature, peaking at 1023 K (750 °C). A dramatic increase in the SO2-to-SO3 conversion was observed when process dust was present, clearly indicating that process dust catalyzes the SO2-to-SO3 conversion. Based on these results, the catalytic ability of the deposit may lead to sulfuric acid dew point corrosion.

Evaluation of TRMM satellite-based precipitation indexes for flood forecasting over Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Tekeli, Ahmet Emre; Fouli, Hesham

2016-10-01

Floods are among the most common disasters harming humanity. In particular, flash floods cause hazards to life, property and any type of structures. Arid and semi-arid regions are equally prone to flash floods like regions with abundant rainfall. Despite rareness of intensive and frequent rainfall events over Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA); an arid/semi-arid region, occasional flash floods occur and result in large amounts of damaging surface runoff. The flooding of 16 November, 2013 in Riyadh; the capital city of KSA, resulted in killing some people and led to much property damage. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Real Time (RT) data (3B42RT) are used herein for flash flood forecasting. 3B42RT detected high-intensity rainfall events matching with the distribution of observed floods over KSA. A flood early warning system based on exceedance of threshold limits on 3B42RT data is proposed for Riyadh. Three different indexes: Constant Threshold (CT), Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) and Riyadh Flood Precipitation Index (RFPI) are developed using 14-year 3B42RT data from 2000 to 2013. RFPI and CDF with 90% captured the three major flooding events that occurred in February 2005, May 2010 and November 2013 in Riyadh. CT with 3 mm/h intensity indicated the 2013 flooding, but missed those of 2005 and 2010. The methodology implemented herein is a first-step simple and accurate way for flash flood forecasting over Riyadh. The simplicity of the methodology enables its applicability for the TRMM follow-on missions like Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Environmental impact of flood: the study of arsenic speciation in exchangeable fraction of flood deposits of Warta river (Poland) in determination of "finger prints" of the pollutants origin and the ways of the migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozak, Lidia; Skolasińska, Katarzyna; Niedzielski, Przemysław

2012-09-01

The paper presents the application of the hyphenated technique - high-performance liquid chromatography with atomic absorption spectrometry detection with hydride generation (HPLC-HG-AAS) - in the determinations of inorganic forms of arsenic: As(III) and As(V) in the exchangeable fraction of flood deposits. The separation of analytical signals of the determined arsenic forms was obtained using an ion-exchange column in a chromatographic system with the atomic absorption spectrometer as a detector, at the determination limits of 5 ngg(-1) for As(III) and 10 ngg(-1) for As(V). Flood deposits were collected after big flood event in valley of the Warta river which took place in summer 2010. Samples of overbank deposits were taken in Poznań agglomeration and vicinity (NW Poland). The results of determinations of arsenic forms in the exchangeable fraction of flood deposits allowed indication of a hypothetical path of deposits migration transported by a river during flood and environmental threats posed by their deposition by flood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flash flood warning in mountainaious areas: using damages reports to evaluate the method at small ungauged catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Defrance, Dimitri; Javelle, Pierre; Ecrepont, Stéphane; Andreassian, Vazken

2013-04-01

In Europe, flash floods mainly occur in the Mediterranean area on small catchments with a short concentration time. Anticipating this kind of events is a major issue in order to reduce the resulting damages. But for many of the impacted catchments, no data are available to calibrate and evaluate hydrological models. In this context, the aims of this study is to develop and evaluate a warning method for the Southern French Alps. This area is of particular interest, because it regroups different hydrological regimes, from purely Mediterranean to purely Alpine influences. Two main issues should be addressed: - How to define the hydrological model and its parameterization for an application in an ungauged context? - How to evaluate the final results on 'real' ungauged catchments? The first issue is a classic one. Using a 'observed' data set (154 streamflow stations with catchment areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km² and distributed rainfall available on the 1997-2006 period), we developed a regional model specifically for the studied area. For this purpose, the AIGA method, initially developed for Mediterranean catchments was adapted, in order to take into account snowmelt and to produce baseflows. Then, different parameterizations were tested, derived from different simple regionalisation techniques: - the same parameters set for the whole area defined as the median of the local calibrated parameters; - the same technique as the previous case, but by considering different sub-areas, defined as "hydro-climatically" homogeneous by previous studies; - and finally the neighbour's method. The second issue is more original. Indeed, in most studies the final evaluation is done using gauged stations as they were 'ungauged', ie keeping the at-site discharge data only for validation ant not for calibration. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the evaluation is made at the scale of the gauged catchments, which are in general greater than the catchments impacted by flash

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

Science.gov (United States)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

Chemical-Vapor-Deposited Graphene as Charge Storage Layer in Flash Memory Device

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W. J. Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We demonstrated a flash memory device with chemical-vapor-deposited graphene as a charge trapping layer. It was found that the average RMS roughness of block oxide on graphene storage layer can be significantly reduced from 5.9 nm to 0.5 nm by inserting a seed metal layer, which was verified by AFM measurements. The memory window is 5.6 V for a dual sweep of ±12 V at room temperature. Moreover, a reduced hysteresis at the low temperature was observed, indicative of water molecules or −OH groups between graphene and dielectric playing an important role in memory windows.

Performance of Models for Flash Flood Warning and Hazard Assessment: The 2015 Kali Gandaki Landslide Dam Breach in Nepal

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Jeremy D. Bricker

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks weakened mountain slopes in Nepal. Co- and postseismic landsliding and the formation of landslide-dammed lakes along steeply dissected valleys were widespread, among them a landslide that dammed the Kali Gandaki River. Overtopping of the landslide dam resulted in a flash flood downstream, though casualties were prevented because of timely evacuation of low-lying areas. We hindcast the flood using the BREACH physically based dam-break model for upstream hydrograph generation, and compared the resulting maximum flow rate with those resulting from various empirical formulas and a simplified hydrograph based on published observations. Subsequent modeling of downstream flood propagation was compromised by a coarse-resolution digital elevation model with several artifacts. Thus, we used a digital-elevation-model preprocessing technique that combined carving and smoothing to derive topographic data. We then applied the 1-dimensional HEC-RAS model for downstream flood routing, and compared it to the 2-dimensional Delft-FLOW model. Simulations were validated using rectified frames of a video recorded by a resident during the flood in the village of Beni, allowing estimation of maximum flow depth and speed. Results show that hydrological smoothing is necessary when using coarse topographic data (such as SRTM or ASTER, as using raw topography underestimates flow depth and speed and overestimates flood wave arrival lag time. Results also show that the 2-dimensional model produces more accurate results than the 1-dimensional model but the 1-dimensional model generates a more conservative result and can be run in a much shorter time. Therefore, a 2-dimensional model is recommended for hazard assessment and planning, whereas a 1-dimensional model would facilitate real-time warning declaration.

Vulnerability Situations associated with Flash Flood Casualties in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Terti, G.; Ruin, I.; Anquetin, S.; Gourley, J. J.

2015-12-01

In the United States (U.S.) flash flooding (FF hereafter) is one of the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Because FF events can be distinguished from riverine floods by their fast response to rainfall and resulting impacts signature, analyzing FF-specific impact datasets seems a good way to identify the juxtaposition of social and physical circumstances leading to those impacts. This communication focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing testing hypotheses on FF-specific vulnerability factors through the analysis of human impact datasets. We hypothesize that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the FF phenomena with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals various paths of vulnerability through the expression of different accidents' circumstances (i.e., vehicle-related, inside buildings, open-air, campsites). We argue that vulnerability and the resulting impacts vary dynamically throughout the day according to the location/situation under concern. In order to test FF-specific contextual vulnerability factors at the scale of the continental US, 1075 fatalities reported between 1996 and 2014 in the Storm Data publication of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are analyzed to statistically explore the timing, the duration and the location of the FF event, and the age and gender of the victims and the circumstance (i.e. location/activity) of their death. In this objective, a re-classification of the individual fatality circumstances and a discretization of the time in qualitative time-steps are performed to obtain possible trends and patterns in the occurrence of fatalities in certain circumstances and time (e.g., day vs night). The findings highlight the importance of situation-specific assessment of FF fatalities to guide the development of FF-specific vulnerability and impacts prediction modeling. Such analysis can provide valuable knowledge when the National Weather

Reconstruction of the 2015 Atacama Floods: Influence of Legacy Mining Deposits in the Salado River Mouth

Science.gov (United States)

Fuenzalida Callejas, M. J.; Contreras Vargas, M. T.; Escauriaza, C. R.

2016-12-01

In March 2015, the Salado watershed in the Atacama Desert was affected by unusual storms that unleashed floods never recorded before in northern Chile. Chañaral, an urban center located at the mouth of the Salado River, suffered the most catastrophic consequences on the population and infrastructure. Several natural and anthropic factors contributed to the magnitude and effects observed in this event. The total precipitation, of more than 80 mm in the upper section of the basin, produced a massive and rapid hyperconcentrated flow from the Andean foothills, which propagated along the channel with high velocities, depositing more than 2 m of mud in Chañaral. The dynamics of the flood in the city was also influenced by mine tailings deposited at the river mouth. The mining industry in this region during the previous century deposited approximately 200 million tons of mine tailings in the Chañaral Bay. The accumulation of this legacy mining deposits at the river mouth changed the local morphodynamics, which exacerbated the impacts of the flood. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that affect the hydrodynamic of floods in hyper-arid regions. We perform numerical simulations using data collected in the field to reconstruct the event of March 2015 in Chañaral, integrating hydrological and hydrodynamic models to propagate the hydrograph in the city with high resolution. By using the reconstruction of the hydrograph and peak flow estimated by Wilcox et al., 2016, we simulate the flood using a two-dimensional model of the shallow-water equations, fully coupled with the sediment concentration (Contreras & Escauriaza, 2016). To identify the influence of the tailing deposits on the flow hydrodynamics, we use high-resolution data of the pre- and post-disaster topography. We compare the performance of different methodologies to assess the destructive power of the flood, considering also the influence of the sediment concentration in the

Monitoring Streambed Scour/Deposition Under Nonideal Temperature Signal and Flood Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

DeWeese, Timothy; Tonina, Daniele; Luce, Charles

2017-12-01

Streambed erosion and deposition are fundamental geomorphic processes in riverbeds, and monitoring their evolution is important for ecological system management and in-stream infrastructure stability. Previous research showed proof of concept that analysis of paired temperature signals of stream and pore waters can simultaneously provide monitoring scour and deposition, stream sediment thermal regime, and seepage velocity information. However, it did not address challenges often associated with natural systems, including nonideal temperature variations (low-amplitude, nonsinusoidal signal, and vertical thermal gradients) and natural flooding conditions on monitoring scour and deposition processes over time. Here we addressed this knowledge gap by testing the proposed thermal scour-deposition chain (TSDC) methodology, with laboratory experiments to test the impact of nonideal temperature signals under a range of seepage velocities and with a field application during a pulse flood. Both analyses showed excellent match between surveyed and temperature-derived bed elevation changes even under very low temperature signal amplitudes (less than 1°C), nonideal signal shape (sawtooth shape), and strong and changing vertical thermal gradients (4°C/m). Root-mean-square errors on predicting the change in streambed elevations were comparable with the median grain size of the streambed sediment. Future research should focus on improved techniques for temperature signal phase and amplitude extractions, as well as TSDC applications over long periods spanning entire hydrographs.

A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore

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Winston T. L. Chow

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000 relative to preceding (1984–1999 periods, (ii these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.

Slope mass movements on SPOT satellite images: A case of the Železniki area (W Slovenia) after flash floods in September 2007

OpenAIRE

Mateja Jemec; Matjaž Mikoš

2008-01-01

Flash floods in Slovenia, which was exposed on September 18th 2007, demanded 6 lives, several thousand houses and over one thousand kilometres of roads were damaged and more also than 50 bridges. The highest amount of rain fell at west and north-west parts of Slovenia (northern Primorska region and southern Gorenjska region),from where heavy rain spread eastwards over the central Slovenia and in east part of Slovenia. In the article we focused on area of western and north-western part of Slov...

A Model to Partly but Reliably Distinguish DDOS Flood Traffic from Aggregated One

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Ming Li

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable distinguishing DDOS flood traffic from aggregated traffic is desperately desired by reliable prevention of DDOS attacks. By reliable distinguishing, we mean that flood traffic can be distinguished from aggregated one for a predetermined probability. The basis to reliably distinguish flood traffic from aggregated one is reliable detection of signs of DDOS flood attacks. As is known, reliably distinguishing DDOS flood traffic from aggregated traffic becomes a tough task mainly due to the effects of flash-crowd traffic. For this reason, this paper studies reliable detection in the underlying DiffServ network to use static-priority schedulers. In this network environment, we present a method for reliable detection of signs of DDOS flood attacks for a given class with a given priority. There are two assumptions introduced in this study. One is that flash-crowd traffic does not have all priorities but some. The other is that attack traffic has all priorities in all classes, otherwise an attacker cannot completely achieve its DDOS goal. Further, we suppose that the protected site is equipped with a sensor that has a signature library of the legitimate traffic with the priorities flash-crowd traffic does not have. Based on those, we are able to reliably distinguish attack traffic from aggregated traffic with the priorities that flash-crowd traffic does not have according to a given detection probability.

A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China

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Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang

2016-04-01

Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms

High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

2004-01-01

High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

Reconstruction of Axial Energy Deposition in Magnetic Liner Inertial Fusion Based on PECOS Shadowgraph Unfolds Using the AMR Code FLASH

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Marissa; Jennings, Christopher; Slutz, Stephen; Peterson, Kyle; Gourdain, Pierre; U. Rochester-Sandia Collaboration

2017-10-01

Magnetic Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments incorporate a laser to preheat a deuterium filled capsule before compression via a magnetically imploding liner. In this work, we focus on the blast wave formed in the fuel during the laser preheat component of MagLIF, where approximately 1kJ of energy is deposited in 3ns into the capsule axially before implosion. To model blast waves directly relevant to experiments such as MagLIF, we inferred deposited energy from shadowgraphy of laser-only experiments preformed at the PECOS target chamber using the Z-Beamlet laser. These energy profiles were used to initialize 2-dimensional simulations using by the adaptive mesh refinement code FLASH. Gradients or asymmetries in the energy deposition may seed instabilities that alter the fuel's distribution, or promote mix, as the blast wave interacts with the liner wall. The AMR capabilities of FLASH allow us to study the development and dynamics of these instabilities within the fuel and their effect on the liner before implosion. Sandia Natl Labs is managed by NTES of Sandia, LLC., a subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc, for the U.S. DOEs NNSA under contract DE-NA0003525.

Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

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Bertin Dominique

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers

Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated with a Flash Flood Event in Portugal

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Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Trigo, Isabel F.; María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Nieto, Raquel; Gimeno, Luis

2013-04-01

On 18-19 November 1983, the region of Lisbon, in Portugal, was affected by a heavy precipitation event, soon followed by flash flooding, urban inundations and a burst of landslides around Lisbon [Zêzere et al., 2005] causing considerable infrastructure damage and human fatalities. With a total of 95.6 mm in 24 h observed at the longest serving station in Portugal (Lisbon's Dom Luiz Observatory), this was the rainiest day during the twentieth century and one of the rainiest registered since 1864. We found that this event was triggered by the transport of tropical and subtropical moisture associated with an extratropical cyclone. The low favored a large stream of (sub) tropical air that extended over more than 10° of latitude and across the North Atlantic Ocean, carrying a large amount of moisture originally from lower latitudes, a so-called atmospheric river. The stationary position of the jet stream along the East Atlantic Ocean through Iberia caused a strong enhancement of the precipitation associated with the moist air. A Lagrangian analysis of the transport of moisture in the Euro-Atlantic sector was performed based on the methodology developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], using the FLEXPART model. This Lagrangian methodology was employed to show that the evaporative sources for the precipitation falling over the area of Lisbon were distributed over large sectors of the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean and included a significant contribution from the (sub) tropics. This study [Liberato et al., 2012] aims to provide an example of the application of distinct Lagrangian techniques to achieve a better understanding of the relation between extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of a heavy precipitation event on the Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) Programme and by national funds

Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method

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Javelle Pierre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr. It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific

Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

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A. Simonneau

2013-03-01

Full Text Available High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs: light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The

Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yen, B.C.

1988-01-01

Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

The development of flood map in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

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Robert Jubach

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, G. H.; Cullmann, J.

2008-10-01

SummaryThe Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and - optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime - a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) - portraying the rainfall-runoff process - and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF - essentially consisting of the coupled "hydrologic" PoNN and "hydrodynamic" MLFN - to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km 2). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting.

Sediment transport and deposition in the lower Missouri River during the 2011 flood

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jason S.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Rus, David L.

2013-01-01

Floodwater in the Missouri River in 2011 originated in upper-basin regions and tributaries, and then travelled through a series of large flood-control reservoirs, setting records for total runoff volume entering all six Missouri River main-stem reservoirs. The flooding lasted as long as 3 months. The U.S Geological Survey (USGS) examined sediment transport and deposition in the lower Missouri River in 2011 to investigate how the geography of floodwater sources, in particular the decanting effects of the Missouri River main-stem reservoir system, coupled with the longitudinal characteristics of civil infrastructure and valley-bottom topography, affected sediment transport and deposition in this large, regulated river system. During the flood conditions in 2011, the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored suspended-sediment transport at six primary streamgages along the length of the lower Missouri River. Measured suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in the lower Missouri River varied from approximately 150 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 2,000 mg/L from January 1 to September 30, 2011. Median SSC increased in the downstream direction from 355 mg/L at Sioux City, Iowa, to 490 mg/L at Hermann, Missouri. The highest SSCs were measured downstream from Omaha, Nebraska, in late February when snowmelt runoff from tributaries, which were draining zones of high-sediment production, was entering the lower Missouri River, and releases of water at Gavins Point Dam were small. The combination of dilute releases of water at Gavins Point Dam and low streamflows in lower Missouri River tributaries caused sustained lowering of SSC at all streamgages from early July through late August. Suspended-sediment ranged from 5 percent washload (PW; percent silt and clay) to as much as 98 percent in the lower Missouri River from January 1 to September 30, 2011. Median PW increased in the downstream direction from 24 percent at Sioux City, Iowa, to 78 percent at

Geostatistical analysis of the flood risk perception queries in the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Amérigo, María; García, Juan Antonio; María Bodoque, José; Fernández-Naranjo, Nuria

2017-04-01

Flash floods provoke a high average mortality as they are usually unexpected events which evolve rapidly and affect relatively small areas. The short time available for minimizing risks requires preparedness and response actions to be put into practice. Therefore, it is necessary the development of emergency response plans to evacuate and rescue people in the context of a flash-flood hazard. In this framework, risk management has to integrate the social dimension of flash-flooding and its spatial distribution by understanding the characteristics of local communities in order to enhance community resilience during a flash-flood. In this regard, the flash-flood social risk perception of the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain) has been recently assessed, as well as the level of awareness of civil protection and emergency management strategies (Bodoque et al., 2016). This has been done interviewing 254 adults, representing roughly 12% of the population census. The present study wants to go further in the analysis of the resulting questionnaires, incorporating in the analysis the location of home spatial coordinates in order to characterize the spatial distribution and possible geographical interpretation of flood risk perception. We apply geostatistical methods to analyze spatial relations of social risk perception and level of awareness with distance to the rivers (Alberche and Chorrerón) or to the flood-prone areas (50-year, 100-year and 500-year flood plains). We want to discover spatial patterns, if any, using correlation functions (variograms). Geostatistical analyses results can help to either confirm the logical pattern (i.e., less awareness further to the rivers or high return period of flooding) or reveal departures from expected. It can also be possible to identify hot spots, cold spots, and spatial outliers. The interpretation of these spatial patterns can give valuable information to define strategies to improve the awareness regarding preparedness and

Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability

Study of the adaptive refinement on an open source 2D shallow-water flow solver using quadtree grid for flash flood simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirstetter, G.; Popinet, S.; Fullana, J. M.; Lagrée, P. Y.; Josserand, C.

2015-12-01

The full resolution of shallow-water equations for modeling flash floods may have a high computational cost, so that majority of flood simulation softwares used for flood forecasting uses a simplification of this model : 1D approximations, diffusive or kinematic wave approximations or exotic models using non-physical free parameters. These kind of approximations permit to save a lot of computational time by sacrificing in an unquantified way the precision of simulations. To reduce drastically the cost of such 2D simulations by quantifying the lost of precision, we propose a 2D shallow-water flow solver built with the open source code Basilisk1, which is using adaptive refinement on a quadtree grid. This solver uses a well-balanced central-upwind scheme, which is at second order in time and space, and treats the friction and rain terms implicitly in finite volume approach. We demonstrate the validity of our simulation on the case of the flood of Tewkesbury (UK) occurred in July 2007, as shown on Fig. 1. On this case, a systematic study of the impact of the chosen criterium for adaptive refinement is performed. The criterium which has the best computational time / precision ratio is proposed. Finally, we present the power law giving the computational time in respect to the maximum resolution and we show that this law for our 2D simulation is close to the one of 1D simulation, thanks to the fractal dimension of the topography. [1] http://basilisk.fr/

Flood Simulation Using WMS Model in Small Watershed after Strong Earthquake -A Case Study of Longxihe Watershed, Sichuan province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, B.

2017-12-01

Mountain watershed in Western China is prone to flash floods. The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 led to the destruction of surface, and frequent landslides and debris flow, which further exacerbated the flash flood hazards. Two giant torrent and debris flows occurred due to heavy rainfall after the earthquake, one was on August 13 2010, and the other on August 18 2010. Flash floods reduction and risk assessment are the key issues in post-disaster reconstruction. Hydrological prediction models are important and cost-efficient mitigation tools being widely applied. In this paper, hydrological observations and simulation using remote sensing data and the WMS model are carried out in the typical flood-hit area, Longxihe watershed, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. The hydrological response of rainfall runoff is discussed. The results show that: the WMS HEC-1 model can well simulate the runoff process of small watershed in mountainous area. This methodology can be used in other earthquake-affected areas for risk assessment and to predict the magnitude of flash floods. Key Words: Rainfall-runoff modeling. Remote Sensing. Earthquake. WMS.

Simple flash evaporator for making thin films of compounds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hemanadhan, M.; Bapanayya, Ch.; Agarwal, S. C. [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur 208016 (India)

2010-07-15

A simple and compact arrangement for flash evaporation is described. It uses a cell phone vibrator for powder dispensing that can be incorporated into a vacuum deposition chamber without any major alterations. The performance of the flash evaporation system is checked by making thin films of the optical memory chalcogenide glass Ge{sub 2}Sb{sub 2}Te{sub 5} (GST). Energy dispersive x-ray analysis shows that the flash evaporation preserves the stoichiometry in thin films.

A dynamic compartment model for assessing the transfer of radionuclide deposited onto flooded rice-fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keum, Dong-Kwon; Lee, Han-Soo; Choi, Heui-Ju; Kang, Hee-Seok; Lim, Kwang-Muk; Choi, Young-Ho; Lee, Chang-Woo

2004-01-01

A dynamic compartment model has been studied to estimate the transfer of radionuclides deposited onto flooded rice-fields after an accidental release. In the model, a surface water compartment and a direct shoot-base absorption from the surface water to the rice-plant, which are major features discriminating the present model from the existing model, has been introduced to account for the flooded condition of rice-fields. The model has been applied to the deposition experiments of 137 Cs on rice-fields that were performed at three different times to simulate the deposition before transplanting (May 2) and during the growth of the rice (June 1 and August 12), respectively. In the case of the deposition of May 2, the root-uptake is the most predominant process for transferring 137 Cs to the rice-body and grain. When the radionuclide is applied just after transplanting (June 1), the activity of the body is controlled by the shoot-base absorption and the activity of the grain by the root-uptake. The deposition just before ear-emergence (August 12) shows that the shoot-base absorption contributes entirely to the increase of both the activities of the body and grain. The model prediction agrees within one or two factors with the experimental results obtained for a respective deposition experiment

Early diagenesis of recently deposited organic matter: A 9-yr time-series study of a flood deposit

Science.gov (United States)

Tesi, T.; Langone, L.; Goñi, M. A.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Miserocchi, S.; Bertotti, L.

2012-04-01

In Fall 2000, the Po River (Italy) experienced a 100-yr return period flood that resulted in a 1-25 cm-thick deposit in the adjacent prodelta (10-25 m water depth). In the following years, numerous post-depositional perturbations occurred including bioturbation, reworking by waves with heights exceeding 5 m, as well as periods of extremely high and low sediment supply. Cores collected in the central prodelta after the Fall 2000 flood and over the following 9 yr, allowed characterization of the event-strata in their initial state and documentation of their subsequent evolution. Sedimentological characteristics were investigated using X-radiographs and sediment texture analyses, whereas the composition of sedimentary organic matter (OM) was studied via bulk and biomarker analyses, including organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), carbon stable isotope composition (δ13C), lignin phenols, cutin-products, p-hydroxy benzenes, benzoic acids, dicarboxylic acids, and fatty acids. The 9-yr time-series analysis indicated that roughly the lower half of the original event bed was preserved in the sediment record. Conversely, the upper half of the deposit experienced significant alterations including bioturbation, addition of new material, as well as coarsening. Comparison of the recently deposited material with 9-yr old preserved strata represented a unique natural laboratory to investigate the diagenesis of sedimentary OM in a non-steady system. Bulk data indicated that OC and TN were degraded at similar rates (loss ∼17%) whereas biomarkers exhibited a broad spectrum of reactivities (loss from ∼6% to ∼60%) indicating selective preservation during early diagenesis. Given the relevance of episodic sedimentation in several margins, this study has demonstrated the utility of event-response and time-series sampling of the seabed for understanding the early diagenesis in non-steady conditions.

The role of water and sediment connectivity in integrated flood management: a case study on the island of Saint Lucia

Science.gov (United States)

Jetten, Victor; van Westen, Cees; Ettema, Janneke; van den Bout, Bastian

2016-04-01

Disaster Risk Management combines the effects of natural hazards in time and space, with elements at risk, such as ourselves, infrastructure or other elements that have a value in our society. The risk in this case is defined as the sum of potential consequences of one or more hazards and can be expressed as potential damages. Generally, we attempt to reduce risk by better risk management, such as increase of resilience, protection and spatial planning. Caribbean islands are hit by hurricanes and tropical storms with a frequency of 1 to 2 every 10 years, with devastating consequences in terms of flash floods and landslides. The islands basically consist of a central (volcanic) mountain range, with medium and small sized catchments radiating outward towards the ocean. The coastal zone is inhabited, while the ring road network is essential for functioning of the island. An example of a case study is given for the island of Saint Lucia. Recorded rainfall intensities during tropical storms of 12 rainfall stations surpass 200 mm/h, causing immediate flash floods. Very often however, sediment is a forgotten variable in flash flood management: protection and mitigation measures as well as spatial planning all focus on the hydrology, the extent and depth of flood water, and sometimes of flood velocities. With recent developments, the opensource model LISEM includes hydrology and runoff, flooding, and erosion, transport and deposition both in runoff, channel flow and flood waters. We will discuss the practical solutions we implemented in connecting slopes, river channels and floodplains in terms of water and sediment, and the strength and weaknesses we have encountered so far. Catchment analysis shows two main effects: on the one hand in almost all cases upstream flooding serves as a temporary water storage that prevents further damage downstream, while on the other hand, erosion upstream often blocks bridges and decreases channel storage downstream, which increases the

The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

Science.gov (United States)

Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

2010-11-01

SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of

The validity of flow approximations when simulating catchment-integrated flash floods

Science.gov (United States)

Bout, B.; Jetten, V. G.

2018-01-01

Within hydrological models, flow approximations are commonly used to reduce computation time. The validity of these approximations is strongly determined by flow height, flow velocity and the spatial resolution of the model. In this presentation, the validity and performance of the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximations are investigated for use in a catchment-based flood model. Particularly, the validity during flood events and for varying spatial resolutions is investigated. The OpenLISEM hydrological model is extended to implement both these flow approximations and channel flooding based on dynamic flow. The flow approximations are used to recreate measured discharge in three catchments, among which is the hydrograph of the 2003 flood event in the Fella river basin. Furthermore, spatial resolutions are varied for the flood simulation in order to investigate the influence of spatial resolution on these flow approximations. Results show that the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximation provide least to highest accuracy, respectively, in recreating measured discharge. Kinematic flow, which is commonly used in hydrological modelling, substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity in the simulations with a spatial resolution of below 30 m. Since spatial resolutions of models have strongly increased over the past decades, usage of routed kinematic flow should be reconsidered. The combination of diffusive or dynamic overland flow and dynamic channel flooding provides high accuracy in recreating the 2003 Fella river flood event. Finally, in the case of flood events, spatial modelling of kinematic flow substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity and flow concentration since pressure forces are removed, leading to significant errors.

Flood, Seismic or Volcanic Deposits? New Insights from X-Ray Computed Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Van Daele, M. E.; Moernaut, J.; Vermassen, F.; Llurba, M.; Praet, N.; Strupler, M. M.; Anselmetti, F.; Cnudde, V.; Haeussler, P. J.; Pino, M.; Urrutia, R.; De Batist, M. A. O.

2014-12-01

Event deposits, such as e.g. turbidites incorporated in marine or lacustrine sediment sequences, may be caused by a wide range of possible triggering processes: failure of underwater slopes - either spontaneous or in response to earthquake shaking, hyperpycnal flows and floods, volcanic processes, etc. Determining the exact triggering process remains, however, a major challenge. Especially when studying the event deposits on sediment cores, which typically have diameters of only a few cm, only a small spatial window is available to analyze diagnostic textural and facies characteristics. We have performed X-ray CT scans on sediment cores from Chilean, Alaskan and Swiss lakes. Even when using relatively low-resolution CT scans (0.6 mm voxel size), many sedimentary structures and fabrics that are not visible by eye, are revealed. For example, the CT scans allow to distinguish tephra layers that are deposited by fall-out, from those that reached the basin by river transport or mud flows and from tephra layers that have been reworked and re-deposited by turbidity currents. The 3D data generated by the CT scans also allow to examine relative orientations of sedimentary structures (e.g. convolute lamination) and fabrics (e.g. imbricated mud clasts), which can be used to reconstruct flow directions. Such relative flow directions allow to determine whether a deposit (e.g. a turbidite) had one or several source areas, the latter being typical for seismically triggered turbidites. When the sediment core can be oriented (e.g. using geomagnetic properties), absolute flow directions can be reconstructed. X-ray CT scanning, at different resolution, is thus becoming an increasingly important tool for discriminating the exact origin of EDs, as it can help determining whether e.g. an ash layer was deposited as fall out from an ash cloud or fluvially washed into the lake, or whether a turbidite was triggered by an earthquake or a flood.

HYDRAULIC SIMULATION OF FLASH FLOOD AS TRIGGERED BY NATURAL DAM BREAK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanuar Tri Kurniawan

2015-05-01

Calibration model result showed that the height of natural dam significantly influence changes of water surface elevation at control point. Tracing of flood result in reconstruction of January 2006 flood showed the conformity with the real event. It was observed from the arrival time of flood at certain location. From obtained results, it can be concluded that simulation modeling gave the acceptable results.

Atomic-layer deposited IrO2 nanodots for charge-trap flash-memory devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sangmoo; Cha, Young-Kwan; Seo, Bum-Seok; Park, Sangjin; Park, Ju-Hee; Shin, Sangmin; Seol, Kwang Soo; Park, Jong-Bong; Jung, Young-Soo; Park, Youngsoo; Park, Yoondong; Yoo, In-Kyeong; Choi, Suk-Ho

2007-01-01

Charge-trap flash- (CTF) memory structures have been fabricated by employing IrO 2 nanodots (NDs) grown by atomic-layer deposition. A band of isolated IrO 2 NDs of about 3 nm lying almost parallel to Si/SiO 2 interface is confirmed by transmission electron microscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The memory device with IrO 2 NDs shows much larger capacitance-voltage (C-V) hysteresis and memory window compared with the control sample without IrO 2 NDs. After annealing at 800 deg. C for 20 min, the ND device shows almost no change in the width of C-V hysteresis and the ND distribution. These results indicate that the IrO 2 NDs embedded in SiO 2 can be utilized as thermally stable, discrete charge traps, promising for metal oxide-ND-based CTF memory devices

Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

2016-04-01

Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

RELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND INITIATION OF DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE JIANGJIA RAVINE,YUNNAN PROVINCE, SOUTHWEST CHINA

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zili FENG; Peng CUI; Xiaoqing CHEN; Jie CHEN

2006-01-01

In the Jiangjia Ravine, debris flows are often triggered by short-duration rainstorms frequently. To reveal the unique initiation process of debris flows, rainfall and debris flow initiation in an upstream area was continually observed. It is concluded that flash floods resulting from short-duration rainstorms play a key role in the initiation of debris flows. Surface runoff forms flash floods due to special topographic conditions. The flash floods mobilize the sediment deposits in the upper section of the branch gullies,hence, high density viscous debris flows initiate. The initiation of debris flows in the Jiangjia Ravine has a close relation with precipitation. Applying the Takahashi model of debris flow initiation, it is concluded that: to mobilize cohesive deposits in the gully bed the depth of flash floods must exceed a critical depth. This critical depth of floods makes the definition of thresholds of rainfall intensity possible. Considering the change in the initial infiltration rate at different initial water content of bank slopes, and the influence of antecedent precipitation on the initial water content, the relation between the thresholds of rainfall intensity and the antecedent precipitation show good agreement with the empirical relation established by previous research.

High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2013-12-01

Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason; Kucera, Paul

2013-01-01

Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiwen Mei

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

Science.gov (United States)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity

A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore

OpenAIRE

Winston T. L. Chow; Brendan D. Cheong; Beatrice H. Ho

2016-01-01

We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, desp...

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Lavado, C.; Furdada, G.; Marqués, M. A.

2007-07-01

This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Fernández-Lavado

2007-07-01

Full Text Available This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1 community emergency plans, (2 regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces. Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options...... presented is based on a flood risk framework that is in accordance with the EU flood directive, but adapted and extended to incorporate anticipated future changes due to city development and hydrologic extremes. The framework is used to study the importance of inherent uncertainties in order to find robust......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed; Shaqura, Mohammad; Ghommem, Mehdi; Collier, Nathan; Calo, Victor M.; Claudel, Christian G.

2014-01-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Unmanned air vehicles equipped

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

events and flood risk in India. P Guhathakurta∗. , O P Sreejith and P A Menon. India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, India. ∗ e-mail: pguhathakurta@rediffmail.com. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to ...

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2015-05-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

New principle of feeding for flash evaporation MOCVD devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaul, A.R.; Seleznev, B.V.

1993-01-01

A novel scheme of flash evaporation feeding for MOCVD processes of multi-component oxide films deposition is proposed. The scheme comprises 1) microdozage of organic solution of solid volatile precursors on the glass fiber belt, 2) evaporation of the solvent and 3) flash evaporation of MOC microdoses from the belt. The functioning of the designed feeder is described and the features of proposed scheme in comparison to existing feeding principles are discussed. (orig.)

Pilot project for a hybrid road-flooding forecasting system on Squaw Creek : [tech transfer summary].

Science.gov (United States)

2014-10-01

According to the National Weather Service, more than : half of the fatalities attributed to flash floods are : people swept away in vehicles when trying to cross an : intersection that is flooded. Efforts are underway to : improve prediction of the l...

Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karagiorgos Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed

2014-05-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Unmanned air vehicles equipped with mobile microsensors could be capable of sensing flash floods in real time, saving lives and greatly improving the efficiency of the emergency response. However, of the main issues arising with sensing floods is the difficulty of planning the path of the sensing agents in advance so as to obtain meaningful data as fast as possible. In this particle, we present a fast numerical scheme to quickly compute the trajectories of a set of UAVs in order to maximize the accuracy of model parameter estimation over a time horizon. Simulation results are presented, a preliminary testbed is briefly described, and future research directions and problems are discussed. © 2014 IEEE.

Flooding in ephemeral streams: incorporating transmission losses

Science.gov (United States)

Stream flow in semiarid lands commonly occurs as a form of flash floods in dry ephemeral stream beds. The goal of this research is to couple hydrological and hydraulic models treats channel transmission losses and test the methodology in the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). For h...

Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

2018-05-01

Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

Vyhodnotenie malakofauny z náplavov Neresnice (stredné Slovensko Interpretation of molluscan fauna from the Neresnica River flood deposits (Central Slovakia

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Marek Čiliak

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Sampling of flood debris deposits can be useful method in insufficiently surveyed areas. This sampling method also allows us to detect the presence of rare and endangered species in the study area. We studied flood debris along the Neresnica River to gather data on mollusc fauna of the Pliešovská Kotlina basin and the Javorie Mts. (Central Slovakia. In spring 2010, samples of flood debris were taken at three sites along the river. Molluscan thanatocoenoses were composed of 68 species (56 terrestrial and 12 aquatic ones. The most notable records were two subterranean species – Lucilla scintilla and L. singleyana, and also the species of nature conservation interest – Vertigo angustior. We found representatives of all ecological groups of molluscs, which provide the evidence of ecosystem diversity in various habitats along the river. We documented that the land use of the studied drainage basin was only partially reflected by the structure of mollusc assemblages from flood deposits.

Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models - the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Barrera, A.; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

2007-09-01

Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

The Historical Flood Of July 2008 From Vaser River Basin, Romania. Causes, Effects And Flood Control Actions

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Sima Andrei

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Floods is an experience perceived by society as unexpected, unexplainable and traumatizing and nowadays a threat to humanity more than ever. Among the natural phenomena which negatively affect human activities, floods are the ones which usually have the most significant consequences. The research, evaluations and statistics related to these phenomena do not reveal the drama and serious consequences that come with floods. It was proven that the increase of these extreme hydrological phenomena it is closely related to the anthropic activities from the area. Vaser basin is the most significant sub-basin of Vișeu river basin, contributing with 28% from the total flow of Vișeu river. Having a strong touristic and economic potential, the basin is often threatened by flash floods which usually have devastating effects. During July 2008 there was recorded the most significant flood from the history of hydrometric activity that led to substantial damage and death among locals. The present paper aims to analyze this historical flood, identifying the causes, effects, as well as the methods to control this extreme hydric phenomenon.

ISSUES CONCERNING OCCURRENCE OF FLOODS ON THE VEDEA RIVER

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TOMA FLORENTINA-MARIANA

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Aspects of flood occurrence on the Vedea River. This study addresses several aspects of floods on the Vedea River, located in the Central Romanian Plain, located between Olt and Argeş rivers. Data recorded in the most important hydrological stations (Buzeşti, Văleni, Alexandria along the Vedea River were used, for a period of 40 years (1970-2009. Flood generating conditions, their typology and parameters were analyzed. Cavis software developed by specialists from INHGA Bucharest was employed, in order to draft the flood hydrographs and calculate the floods parameters. Also, we calculated the multi-annual and seasonal frequencies of flood occurrence. There are two main conclusions emerging from specific analysis. First, the most floods occur in late winter and early spring while the least are specific to autumn season. Second conclusion is that the highest flash floods recorded along the Vedea River are associated to heavy rainfall periods and they occurred in late spring and early summer.

Economic impact due to Cimanuk river flood disaster in Garut district using Cobb-Douglas analysis with least square method

Science.gov (United States)

Bestari, T. A. S.; Supian, S.; Purwani, S.

2018-03-01

Cimanuk River, Garut District, West Java which have upper course in Papandayan Mountain have an important purpose in dialy living of Garut people as a water source. But in 2016 flash flood in this river was hitted and there was 26 peple dead and 23 peole gone. Flash flood which hitted last year make the settlement almost align with the ground, soaking school and hospital. BPLHD Jawa Barat saw this condition as a disaster which coused by distroyed upper course of Cimanuk River. Flash Flood which happened on the 2016 had ever made economic sector paralized. Least square method selected to analyze economic condition in residents affected post disaster, after the mathematical equations was determined by Cobb Douglas Method. By searching proportion value of the damage, and the result expected became a view to the stakeholder to know which sector that become a worse and be able to make a priority in development

Flash flood prediction in large dams using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Múnera Estrada, J. C.; García Bartual, R.

2009-04-01

A flow forecasting methodology is presented as a support tool for flood management in large dams. The practical and efficient use of hydrological real-time measurements is necessary to operate early warning systems for flood disasters prevention, either in natural catchments or in those regulated with reservoirs. In this latter case, the optimal dam operation during flood scenarios should reduce the downstream risks, and at the same time achieve a compromise between different goals: structural security, minimize predictions uncertainty and water resources system management objectives. Downstream constraints depend basically on the geomorphology of the valley, the critical flow thresholds for flooding, the land use and vulnerability associated with human settlements and their economic activities. A dam operation during a flood event thus requires appropriate strategies depending on the flood magnitude and the initial freeboard at the reservoir. The most important difficulty arises from the inherently stochastic character of peak rainfall intensities, their strong spatial and temporal variability, and the highly nonlinear response of semiarid catchments resulting from initial soil moisture condition and the dominant flow mechanisms. The practical integration of a flow prediction model in a real-time system should include combined techniques of pre-processing, data verification and completion, assimilation of information and implementation of real time filters depending on the system characteristics. This work explores the behaviour of real-time flood forecast algorithms based on artificial neural networks (ANN) techniques, in the River Meca catchment (Huelva, Spain), regulated by El Sancho dam. The dam is equipped with three Taintor gates of 12x6 meters. The hydrological data network includes five high-resolution automatic pluviometers (dt=10 min) and three high precision water level sensors in the reservoir. A cross correlation analysis between precipitation data

Real time event selection and flash analog-to-digital converters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imori, Masatosi

1983-01-01

In high-energy particle experiments, high-speed analog logic is employed to select events on a real-time basis. Flash analog-to-digital converters replace the high-speed analog logic with digital logic. The digital logic gives great flexibility to the scheme for real-time event selection. This paper proposes the use of flash A/D converters for the logic used to obtain the total sum of the energy deposited in individual counters in a shower detector. (author)

Operational Precipitation prediction in Support of Real-Time Flash Flood Prediction and Reservoir Management

Science.gov (United States)

Georgakakos, K. P.

2006-05-01

The presentation will outline the implementation and performance evaluation of a number of national and international projects pertaining to operational precipitation estimation and prediction in the context of hydrologic warning systems and reservoir management support. In all cases, uncertainty measures of the estimates and predictions are an integral part of the precipitation models. Outstanding research issues whose resolution is likely to lead to improvements in the operational environment are presented. The presentation draws from the experience of the Hydrologic Research Center (http://www.hrc-lab.org) prototype implementation projects at the Panama Canal, Central America, Northern California, and South-Central US. References: Carpenter, T.M, and K.P. Georgakakos, "Discretization Scale Dependencies of the Ensemble Flow Range versus Catchment Area Relationship in Distributed Hydrologic Modeling," Journal of Hydrology, 2006, in press. Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, "Impacts of Parametric and Radar Rainfall Uncertainty on the Ensemble Streamflow Simulations of a Distributed Hydrologic Model," Journal of Hydrology, 298, 202-221, 2004. Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.E., Carpenter, T.M., Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, "Integrating Climate- Hydrology Forecasts and Multi-Objective Reservoir Management in Northern California," EOS, 86(12), 122,127, 2005. Georgakakos, K.P., and J.A. Sperfslage, "Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed," in The Rio Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, R.S. Harmon, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Chapter 16, 323-334, 2005. Georgakakos, K. P., "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance," Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2005.

The Effect of Recurrent Floods on Genetic Composition of Marble Trout Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Pujolar, José Martin; Vincenzi, Simone; Zane, Lorenzo; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A.; Crivelli, Alain J.

2011-01-01

A changing global climate can threaten the diversity of species and ecosystems. We explore the consequences of catastrophic disturbances in determining the evolutionary and demographic histories of secluded marble trout populations in Slovenian streams subjected to weather extremes, in particular recurrent flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities. Using microsatellite data, a pattern of extreme genetic differentiation was found among populations (global F ST of 0.716), which exceeds the highest values reported in freshwater fish. All locations showed low levels of genetic diversity as evidenced by low heterozygosities and a mean of only 2 alleles per locus, with few or no rare alleles. Many loci showed a discontinuous allele distribution, with missing alleles across the allele size range, suggestive of a population contraction. Accordingly, bottleneck episodes were inferred for all samples with a reduction in population size of 3–4 orders of magnitude. The reduced level of genetic diversity observed in all populations implies a strong impact of genetic drift, and suggests that along with limited gene flow, genetic differentiation might have been exacerbated by recurrent mortalities likely caused by flash flood and debris flows. Due to its low evolutionary potential the species might fail to cope with an intensification and altered frequency of flash flood events predicted to occur with climate change. PMID:21931617

Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glancy, P.A.

1994-01-01

Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

Homogeneous nonequilibrium critical flashing flow with a cavity flooding model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S.Y.; Schrock, V.E.

1989-01-01

The primary purpose of the work presented here is to describe the model for pressure undershoot at incipient flashing in the critical flow of straight channels (Fanno-type flow) for subcooled or saturated stagnation conditions on a more physical basis. In previous models, a modification of the pressure undershoot prediction of Alamgir and Lienhard was used. Their method assumed nucleation occurs on the bounding walls as a result of molecular fluctuations. Without modification it overpredicts the pressure undershoot. In the present work the authors develop a mechanistic model for nucleation from wall cavities. This physical concept is more consistent with experimental data

Observers can reliably identify illusory flashes in the illusory flash paradigm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Erp, J.B.F. van; Philippi, T.G.; Werkhoven, P.

2013-01-01

In the illusory flash paradigm, a single flash may be experienced as two flashes when accompanied by two beeps or taps, and two flashes may be experienced as a single flash when accompanied by one beep or tap. The classic paradigm restricts responses to '1' and '2' (2-AFC), ignoring possible

Flash flooding: Toward an Interdisciplinary and Integrated Strategy for Disaster Reduction in a Global Environmental Change Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ruin, Isabelle

2014-05-01

and analysis are needed to allow cross comparison and deeper understanding of the processes accross scales. This presentation will address these issues based on concrete exemples from empirical studies on past flash flooding events across Europe and USA.

Hot Flashes

Science.gov (United States)

Hot flashes Overview Hot flashes are sudden feelings of warmth, which are usually most intense over the face, neck and chest. Your skin might redden, as if you're blushing. Hot flashes can also cause sweating, and if you ...

The flash flood event in the catchment of the river Weisseritz (eastern Erzgebirge, Saxony) from 12.-14. August 2002 - meteorological and hydrological reasons, damage assesment and disaster managment

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, V.; Bernhofer, Ch.

2003-04-01

Between 12. and 14. August 2002 the region of eastern Erzgebirge (Saxony/Eastern Germany) was affected by the heaviest rainfall event recorded since beginning of the measuring period in 1883. The synoptic reason of this event was the advective precipitation due to the strong and very slowly shifting Vb-low "Ilse" combined with a noticeable topographic intensification by north-westerly winds. All stations in the catchment area of the river Weisseritz recorded new all-time records. E.g., at the meteorological station Zinnwald-Georgenfeld situated at the crest of eastern Erzgebirge a daily sum of 312 mm was measured for the 13. August. This value is close to the maximum physically possible rainfall. The intensive rainfall in the catchments of Rote Weisseritz and Wilde Weisseritz led to unexperienced heavy flash floods with large material transport and flow damages. The buffer effect of the existing dam systems was comparatively small because the reserved retaining capacity for flood protection was only about 20 percent of the total capacity. The reservoirs filled quickly due to the very high maximum inflow. So a long-time overflow of the dam system occurred with a maximum of about 300 cubic meters per second at the combined river Weisseritz through the cities of Freital and Dresden (This situation led, e.g., to the flooding of Central Railway Station in Dresden). This water flow is comparable with a medium flow rate of the river Elbe in Dresden, and it is about 300 times higher than the normal drain of the river Weisseritz in Freital! The material damages in the Weisseritz region account for several hundred millions EURO, and several causalties occurred. The damages of the University buildings in Tharandt (including one building of the Department of Meteorology) account for 15 millions EURO alone. The disaster management during the flood was not optimal. For many people, e.g. in Tharandt, there was neither an officially warning nor an organised rescue of movable goods

Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

2017-11-01

This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

Comparing flood mortality in Portugal and Greece under a gender and age perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Susana; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Luís Zêzere, José

2017-04-01

Flood mortality is analyzed and compared between Portugal and Greece. Flood fatality incidents are explored and compared in terms of their temporal evolution, spatial distribution, deadliest flood types, surrounding environments, gender and age of the victims. A common flood fatalities database for the period 1960-2010 was formed by merging the DISASTER database for Portugal and the Greek database previously built from documental sources. Each entry of the database, corresponding to a flood fatal incident has the following attributes: (i) ID number of the flood case; (ii) the flood type (riverine flood, flash flood, urban flood, or not defined type); (iii) date (day-month-year); (iv) location (x and y coordinates); (v) number of fatalities; (vi) surrounding environment where the flood fatal incident occurred (i.e. outdoors on foot, outdoors inside a vehicle, or inside a building). (vii) gender of the victim (male, female, or gender not reported); (viii) age of the victim (65 years). Excluding the outlier 1967 flash flood event occurred in the Lisbon metropolitan area that caused 522 fatalities, Portugal recorded 114 flood fatalities (related to 80 flood cases) and Greece registered 189 fatalities (related to 57 flood cases). Results identified decreasing mortality trend in both countries, despite some fluctuations irregularly distributed over time. Since the 1980's the number of flood cases with multiple fatalities has been gradually decreasing. In both Greece and Portugal flash floods were responsible for more than 80% of flood mortality and the main metropolitan areas of each country (Athens and Lisbon) presented a clustering of fatalities, attributed to the higher population density combined with the presence of flood-prone areas. Indoor fatalities have been gradually reducing with time, whereas vehicle-related deaths have been rising in both countries. In both countries the majority of flood victims are males, indicating that males are more vulnerable to fatal

Driving into danger: Perception and communication of flash flood risk from a cultural perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Coles, A.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Fryberg, S.

2009-04-01

Flood risk managers educate the public on the dangers of driving through flooded roadways, yet losses to life and property continue to occur. This study integrates cultural psychology and risk perception theory to explore how culture, psychological processes, and behavior influence one another. Flood risk managers in Tucson, Arizona collaborated in the development of a questionnaire mailed to local residents. Questions regarding levels of trust, self-efficacy, social autonomy, social incorporation, time perspective, and situational factors were analyzed with respect to whether respondents stated that they have or have not driven through a flooded roadway. Respondents' decisions are influenced by the presence of signs and barricades, passengers, risk of personal injury or damage to the vehicle, and the availability of flood-related information. The most influential factor is the prior successful crossing of other vehicles. The results illuminate complex interrelations among the cultural factors and provide considerations for future risk perception research.

The effect of prolonged flooding of an oil deposit on the special composition and the activity of hydrocarbon-oxidizing microflora

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berdichevskaya, M V

1982-07-01

The special composition of hydrocarbon-oxidizing bacteria was studied in terrigenous and carbonate oil-bearing strata from several deposits of the Permian Cis-Ural region. We isolated 43 strains and assigned them to the following genera: Mycobacterium, Micrococcus, Brevibacterium, Corynebacterium, Flavobacterium, Achromobacter and Pseudomonas. The special composition of the hydrocarbon-oxidizing microflora was shown to depend on the flooding of an oil stratum, as a result of which the ecological environment in a deposit changed. Gram-positive coryneform bacteria were found in stratal salinized waters and in diluted stratal waters. Gram-negative hydrocarbon-oxidizing bacteria were isolated from pumped-in river waters and from stratal waters diluted by 70-100% as the result of flooding. The metabolic activity of Corynebacterium fascians (2 strains), Mycobacterium rubrum (1 strain), Pseudomonas mira (1 strain) and Flavobacterium perigrinum (1 strain) was assayed in stratal waters with different concentrations of salts. The coryneform hydrocarbon-oxidizing bacteria were shown to be very halotolerant as the result of adaptation; that is why the incidence of these microorganisms is very great in highly mineralized stratal water of oil deposits.

Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

2014-05-01

Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

Using palynology to re-assess the Dead Sea laminated sediments - Indeed varves?

Science.gov (United States)

Bookman, Revital; Lopez-Merino, Lourdes; Belmaker, Reuven; Eshel, Amram; Epshtein Epshtein, Valentina; Leroy, Suzanne

2017-04-01

Lacustrine laminated sediments are often varves representing annual rhythmic deposition. The Dead Sea high-stand laminated sections consist of mm-scale alternating detrital and authigenic aragonite laminae. Previous studies assumed these laminae were varves; detritus deposition during the winter and aragonite in the summer. These sequences were used for varve counting and chronology, however this assumption has never been robustly validated. Here, we report an examination of the seasonal deposition of detrital and aragonite couplets from two well-known Late Holocene laminated sections at the Ze'elim fan-delta using palynology and grain-size distribution analyses. These analyses are complemented by the study of contemporary flash-flood samples and multivariate statistical analysis. Because transport affects the pollen preservation state, well-preserved (mostly) air-borne transported pollen was analysed separately from badly-preserved pollen and fungal spores, which are more indicative of water transport and reworking from soils. Our results indicate that (i) both detrital and aragonite laminae were deposited during the rainy season; (ii) aragonite laminae have significantly lower reworked pollen and fungal spore concentrations than detrital and flash-flood samples; and (iii) detrital laminae are composed of recycling of local and distal sources, with coarser particles that were initially deposited in the Dead Sea watershed and later transported via run-off to the lake. The conclusions suggest that detrital and aragonite couplets in the Dead Sea laminated sediments are most likely not varves and that the laminae deposition is related to the occurrence of flash-flood events. Consequently, at least for the Holocene sequences, laminated sediments cannot be considered as varves and Quaternary laminated sequences should be re-evaluated. The Dead Sea Basin laminated sequences (as the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project record) should be used for the reconstruction of

Risk of the residents, infrastructure and water bodies by flash floods and sediment transport - assessment for scale of the Czech Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Bauer, Miroslav; Strouhal, Luděk; Jáchymová, Barbora; Devátý, Jan; David, Václav; Koudelka, Petr; Dočkal, Martin

2015-04-01

Pluvial and flash floods, related to massive sediment transport become phenomenon nowadays, under conditions of climate changes. Storm events, related to material damages appear at unexpected places and their effective control is only possible in form of prevention. To apply preventive measures, there have to be defined localities with reasonable reliability, which are endangered by surface runoff and sediment transport produced in the subcatchments, often at agriculturally used landscape. Classification of such localities, concerning of potential damages and magnitude of sediment transport shall be also included within the analyses, to design control measures effectively. Large scale project for whole territory of the Czech Republic (ca 80.000 km2) has therefore been granted b the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic, with the aim to define critical points, where interaction between surface runoff connected to massive sediment transport and infrastructure or vulnerable water bodies can occur and to classify them according to potential risk. Advanced GIS routines, based on analyses of land use, soil conditions and morphology had been used to determine the critical points - points, where significant surface runoff occurs and interacts with infrastructure and vulnerable water bodies, based exclusively on the contributing area - flow accumulation. In total, ca 150.000 critical points were determined within the Czech Republic. For each of critical points, its subcatchment had then been analyzed in detail, concerning of soil loss and sediment transport, using simulation model WATEM/SEDEM. The results were used for classification of potential risk of individual critical points, based on mean soil loss within subcatchment, total sediment transport trough the outlet point and subcatchment area. The classification has been done into 5 classes. The boundaries were determined by calibration survey and statistical analysis, performed at three experimental catchments area

FLASH Interface; a GUI for managing runtime parameters in FLASH simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Christopher; Tzeferacos, Petros; Weide, Klaus; Lamb, Donald; Flocke, Norbert; Feister, Scott

2017-10-01

We present FLASH Interface, a novel graphical user interface (GUI) for managing runtime parameters in simulations performed with the FLASH code. FLASH Interface supports full text search of available parameters; provides descriptions of each parameter's role and function; allows for the filtering of parameters based on categories; performs input validation; and maintains all comments and non-parameter information already present in existing parameter files. The GUI can be used to edit existing parameter files or generate new ones. FLASH Interface is open source and was implemented with the Electron framework, making it available on Mac OSX, Windows, and Linux operating systems. The new interface lowers the entry barrier for new FLASH users and provides an easy-to-use tool for experienced FLASH simulators. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), NNSA ASC/Alliances Center for Astrophysical Thermonuclear Flashes, U.S. DOE NNSA ASC through the Argonne Institute for Computing in Science, U.S. National Science Foundation.

Flash Platform Examination

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

than would be performed in software”[108]. Uro Tinic, one of the Flash player’s engineers, further clarifies exactly what Flash player 10 hardware...www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/features/ (Access date: 28 Sep 2009). [109] Uro , T. What Does GPU Acceleration Mean? (online), http...133] Shorten, A. (2009), Design to Development: Flash Catalyst to Flash Builder, In Proceedings of Adobe Max 2009, Los Angeles, CA. 142 DRDC

Slope mass movements on SPOT satellite images: A case of the Železniki area (W Slovenia after flash floods in September 2007

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mateja Jemec

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Flash floods in Slovenia, which was exposed on September 18th 2007, demanded 6 lives, several thousand houses and over one thousand kilometres of roads were damaged and more also than 50 bridges. The highest amount of rain fell at west and north-west parts of Slovenia (northern Primorska region and southern Gorenjska region,from where heavy rain spread eastwards over the central Slovenia and in east part of Slovenia. In the article we focused on area of western and north-western part of Slovenia. The aim of present research was in the first phase to describe methodology to determine landslide occurrences from satellite images before and after natural disaster on Železniki region. Second phase was based on comparison of obtained results with the existing models for prediction of slope mass movements, and finally also to determine identificability of landslide types on a satellite image.Results have shown, that the highest part of obtaining area from supervised and unsupervised classification of satellite images, are comparable with classes of landslide susceptibility, where occurrences of landslide are largest.

Alluvial flash-flood stratigraphy of a large dryland river: the Luni River, Thar Desert, Western India

Science.gov (United States)

Carling, Paul; Leclair, Suzanne; Robinson, Ruth

2017-04-01

Detailed descriptions of the fluvial architecture of large dryland rivers are few, which hinders the understanding of stratigraphic development in aggradational settings. The aim of this study was to obtain new generic insight of the fluvial dynamics and resultant stratigraphy of such a river. The novelty of this investigation is that an unusually extensive and deep section across a major active dryland river was logged and the dated stratigraphy related to the behaviour of the discharge regimen. The results should help improve understanding of the stratigraphic development in modern dryland rivers and in characterizing oil, gas and groundwater reservoirs in the dryland geological record more generally. The Luni River is the largest river in the Thar desert, India, but yet details of the channel stratigraphy are sparse. Discharges can reach 14,000 m3s-1 but the bed is dry most of the year. GPS positioning and mm-resolution surveys within a 700m long, 5m deep trench enabled logging and photography of the strata associations, dated using optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL). The deposits consist of planar, sandy, upper-stage plane bed lamination and low-angle stratification, sandwiching less-frequent dune trough cross-sets. Mud clasts are abundant at any elevation. Water-ripple cross-sets or silt-clay layers occur rarely, usually near the top of sections. Aeolian dune cross-sets also appear sparsely at higher elevations. Consequently, the majority of preserved strata are due to supercritical flows. Localized deep scour causes massive collapse and soft-sediment deformation. Scour holes are infilled by rapidly-deposited massive sands adjacent to older bedded-deposits. Within bedform phase diagrams, estimated hydraulic parameters indicate a dominance of the upper-stage plane bed state, but the presence of dune cross-sets is also related to the flood hydrograph. Repeated deep scour results in units of deposition of different OSL ages (50 to 500 years BP) found at

THE SEPTEMBER 2013 RAIN AND FLOOD EVENTS IN THE FLAM’S VALLEY BASIN. CAUSES, CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR IMPACT UPON THE ENVIRONMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BORCAN MIHAELA

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Between 11.09 and 14.09 2013 the north-eastern part of Tulcea County, especially the areas located around Somova village was affected by heavy, torrential rainfall that totalized over 30 mm/sq m and triggered dangerous hydrological phenomena (important slope, stream and river flows. As a result of these heavy downpours, Flam’s Valley was affected by an exceptional flash-flood which measured a peak discharge that reached a 1% exceeding probability. Another destructive characteristic of the weather phenomena that occurred in September 2013 was that the heavy rain was accompanied by violent gusty winds that resembled tornado-like features, bringing serious threat to houses, households and roads. In this paper we have analyzed the weather features that produced the September 2013 flash flood from both a spatial and a temporal perspective. The hydrological analysis focuses on the peak discharge that was recorded during the flash flood as well as on the characteristics elements of the topographic profiles. The paper ends with a brief presentation of the consequences that the weather and hydrological phenomena had upon the environment and population as well.

The haptic and the visual flash-lag effect and the role of flash characteristics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knut Drewing

Full Text Available When a short flash occurs in spatial alignment with a moving object, the moving object is seen ahead the stationary one. Similar to this visual "flash-lag effect" (FLE it has been recently observed for the haptic sense that participants judge a moving hand to be ahead a stationary hand when judged at the moment of a short vibration ("haptic flash" that is applied when the two hands are spatially aligned. We further investigated the haptic FLE. First, we compared participants' performance in two isosensory visual or haptic conditions, in which moving object and flash were presented only in a single modality (visual: sphere and short color change, haptic: hand and vibration, and two bisensory conditions, in which the moving object was presented in both modalities (hand aligned with visible sphere, but the flash was presented only visually or only haptically. The experiment aimed to disentangle contributions of the flash's and the objects' modalities to the FLEs in haptics versus vision. We observed a FLE when the flash was visually displayed, both when the moving object was visual and visuo-haptic. Because the position of a visual flash, but not of an analogue haptic flash, is misjudged relative to a same visuo-haptic moving object, the difference between visual and haptic conditions can be fully attributed to characteristics of the flash. The second experiment confirmed that a haptic FLE can be observed depending on flash characteristics: the FLE increases with decreasing intensity of the flash (slightly modulated by flash duration, which had been previously observed for vision. These findings underline the high relevance of flash characteristics in different senses, and thus fit well with the temporal-sampling framework, where the flash triggers a high-level, supra-modal process of position judgement, the time point of which further depends on the processing time of the flash.

WiP abstract: Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed; Shaqura, Mohammad; Ghommem, Mehdi; Collier, Nathan O.; Calo, Victor M.; Claudel, Christian G.

2014-01-01

Floods are one of the most commonly occurring natural disasters, and caused more than 120,000 fatalities in the world between 1991 and 2005. Most of these casualties are caused by the lack of a reliable real-time flash flood monitoring system. Given the area to monitor, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) appear as the most promising solutions for this task. © 2014 IEEE.

WiP abstract: Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed

2014-04-01

Floods are one of the most commonly occurring natural disasters, and caused more than 120,000 fatalities in the world between 1991 and 2005. Most of these casualties are caused by the lack of a reliable real-time flash flood monitoring system. Given the area to monitor, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) appear as the most promising solutions for this task. © 2014 IEEE.

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

2017-12-01

Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

2015-12-01

A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-06-14

Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

2016-04-01

Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A

Hydrological analysis of high waters and flash floods occurred in September 2007 in Slovenia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kobold, M; Susnik, M; Robic, M; Ulaga, F; Lalic, B [Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, Vojkova lb, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia)], E-mail: mira.kobold@gov.si

2008-11-01

Heavy and intense precipitation which fell in just a few hours across the western, north-western and northern Slovenia on 18 September 2007, caused quick rise of river discharges especially in the region of Baska grapa, Davca, the Cerkljansko and Skofja Loka hills. In that area the streams caused huge destruction on infrastructure, homes, business buildings and other property. More than 300 mm of rain was recorded on some precipitation measurement stations. The return period of the highest precipitation was more than 100 years. The amount of precipitation decreased from the west to the east of the country where above 100 mm of precipitation was recorded and torrential streams and rivers flooded in the region of Karavanke and foothills of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, Kranj and Domzale fields, the Tuhinj valley and extensive Celje region. Observed discharges of streams and rivers on the most affected area exceeded periodical maximum discharges. The simulation of flood hydrograph for Zelezniki was done by HEC-1 model. The return period of floods was more than 100 years. Besides flooding many landslides were triggered. The result of this catastrophe was enormous economic damage and loss of six people's lives.

Hydrological analysis of high waters and flash floods occurred in September 2007 in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobold, M; Susnik, M; Robic, M; Ulaga, F; Lalic, B

2008-01-01

Heavy and intense precipitation which fell in just a few hours across the western, north-western and northern Slovenia on 18 September 2007, caused quick rise of river discharges especially in the region of Baska grapa, Davca, the Cerkljansko and Skofja Loka hills. In that area the streams caused huge destruction on infrastructure, homes, business buildings and other property. More than 300 mm of rain was recorded on some precipitation measurement stations. The return period of the highest precipitation was more than 100 years. The amount of precipitation decreased from the west to the east of the country where above 100 mm of precipitation was recorded and torrential streams and rivers flooded in the region of Karavanke and foothills of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, Kranj and Domzale fields, the Tuhinj valley and extensive Celje region. Observed discharges of streams and rivers on the most affected area exceeded periodical maximum discharges. The simulation of flood hydrograph for Zelezniki was done by HEC-1 model. The return period of floods was more than 100 years. Besides flooding many landslides were triggered. The result of this catastrophe was enormous economic damage and loss of six people's lives.

A limited area model intercomparison on the 'Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mariani

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as 'Montserrat-2000' event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard 'eyeball' analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Pro Android Flash

CERN Document Server

Chin, Stephen; Campesato, Oswald

2011-01-01

Did you know you can take your Flash skills beyond the browser, allowing you to make apps for Android, iOS and the BlackBerry Tablet OS? Build dynamic apps today starting with the easy-to-use Android smartphones and tablets. Then, take your app to other platforms without writing native code. Pro Android Flash is the definitive guide to building Flash and other rich Internet applications (RIAs) on the Android platform. It covers the most popular RIA frameworks for Android developers - Flash and Flex - and shows how to build rich, immersive user experiences on both Android smartphones and tablet

Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: a flash flood case study in the Western Mediterranean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Zampieri

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The 'Montserrat-2000' severe flash flood event which occurred over Catalonia on 9 and 10 June 2000 is analyzed. Strong precipitation was generated by a mesoscale convective system associated with the development of a cyclone. The location of heavy precipitation depends on the position of the cyclone, which, in turn, is found to be very sensitive to various model characteristics and initial conditions. Numerical simulations of this case study using the hydrostatic BOLAM and the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH models are performed in order to test the effects of different formulations of the boundary layer parameterization: a modified version of the Louis (order 1 model and a custom version of the E-ℓ (order 1.5 model. Both of them require a diagnostic formulation of the mixing length, but the use of the turbulent kinetic energy equation in the E-ℓ model allows to represent turbulence history and non-locality effects and to formulate a more physically based mixing length. The impact of the two schemes is different in the two models. The hydrostatic model, run at 1/5 degree resolution, is less sensitive, but the quantitative precipitation forecast is in any case unsatisfactory in terms of localization and amount. Conversely, the non-hydrostatic model, run at 1/50 degree resolution, is capable of realistically simulate timing, position and amount of precipitation, with the apparently superior results obtained with the E-ℓ parameterization model.

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Romero

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET case studies (9–10 June 2000 Catalogne, 8–9 September 2002 Cévennes and 24–26 November 2002 Piémont appear to encompass a sort of prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. In Catalogne, the convective event was driven by a low-pressure system of relatively small dimensions developed over the mediterranean coast of Spain that moved into southern France. For Cévennes, the main circulation pattern was a synoptic-scale Atlantic low which induced a persistent southerly low-level jet (LLJ over the western Mediterranean, strengthened by the Alps along its western flank, which guaranteed continuous moisture supply towards southern France where the long-lived, quasistationary convective system developed. The long Piémont episode, very representative of the most severe alpine flash flood events, shares some similarities with the Cévennes situation during its first stage in that it was controlled by a southerly moist LLJ associated with a large-scale disturbance located to the west. However, these circulation features were transient aspects and during the second half of the episode the situation was dominated by a cyclogenesis process over the Mediterranean which gave place to a mesoscale-size depression at surface that acted to force new heavy rain over the slopes of the Alps and maritime areas. That is, the Piémont episode can be catalogued as of mixed type with regard to the responsible surface disturbance, evolving from a large-scale pattern with remote action (like Cévennes to a mesoscale pattern with local action (like Catalogne. A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rain, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low-levels. Being aware of the

Flash!

Science.gov (United States)

Schilling, Govert

2002-04-01

About three times a day our sky flashes with a powerful pulse of gamma ray bursts (GRB), invisible to human eyes but not to astronomers' instruments. The sources of this intense radiation are likely to be emitting, within the span of seconds or minutes, more energy than the sun will in its entire 10 billion years of life. Where these bursts originate, and how they come to have such incredible energies, is a mystery scientists have been trying to solve for three decades. The phenomenon has resisted study -- the flashes come from random directions in space and vanish without trace -- until very recently. In what could be called a cinematic conflation of Flash Gordon and The Hunt for Red October, Govert Schilling's Flash!: The Hunt for the Biggest Explosions in the Universe describes the exciting and ever-changing field of GRB research. Based on interviews with leading scientists, Flash! provides an insider's account of the scientific challenges involved in unravelling the enigmatic nature of GRBs. A science writer who has followed the drama from the very start, Schilling describes the ambition and jealousy, collegiality and competition, triumph and tragedy, that exists among those who have embarked on this recherche. Govert Schilling is a Dutch science writer and astronomy publicist. He is a contributing editor of Sky and Telescope magazine, and regularly writes for the news sections of Science and New Scientist. Schilling is the astronomy writer for de Volkskrant, one of the largest national daily newspapers in The Netherlands, and frequently talks about the Universe on Dutch radio broadcasts. He is the author of more than twenty popular astronomy books, and hundreds of newspaper and magazine articles on astronomy.

Ecological Aspect of Dam Design for Flood Regulation and Sustainable Urban Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badenko Vladimir

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Many floodplains are excluded from urban development because the floods cause considerable damage to people’s lives and properties. This requires the development of new approaches to flood management and mitigation for support sustainable urban development. In present study as the measures for mitigation of flash floods, the regulation of river flow by the system of detention reservoirs for flood diversion with dams, which do not need any operation management, are analyzed concerning of Far East region of Russia. The main objective of this paper is to develop a method for analysis how the dam site selection meets the environmental criterion. The method to justify a selection of self-regulated flood dam parameters, primarily a height of a dam and its location on a water stream, providing minimization of impact on the environment have been developed. The result for Selemdzha river basin in Far East monsoon region of Russian Federation is analyzed. The result shows the robustness of the method.

Loss of life in flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Špitalar, Maruša

2013-04-01

Natural disasters per se give a negative connotation. They are destructive to material elements in a space, nature itself and represent a threat to peoples' lives and health. Floods, especially flash floods due to its power and happening suddenly cause extensive damage. Hence, they are hard to predict and are characterized with violent movement, lots of lives are lost. Floods are among natural hazards the one causing the highest number of fatalities. Having said that very important aspects are humans' vulnerability, risk perception, their behavior when confronted with hazardous situations and on the other hand issues related to adequate warning signs and canals of communication. It is very important to take into consideration this segments also and not mainly just structural measures. However the aim of this paper is to emphasis mainly the social aspects of floods. It consists of two main parts. First one refers to mans' vulnerability, risk perception when it comes to danger caused by rising waters and how does culture influences peoples' response and reaction to flood causalities. The second part consists of data about detailed information on circumstances of death that have been collected from several different sources from several EU countries. There has been also available information on the age and gender of people who lost lives in flood events. With gender males dominated among death people since tend to risk more in risky situations. There has been also defined a vulnerable age group among flood fatalities. Analysis of circumstance of death enabled us to define risky groups that are very important for flood managers. Further on this is very beneficial also for risk prevention, early warning systems and creating the best canals in order to information about upcoming danger would successfully reach people at hazardous areas and also for the others to avoid them.

Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hally

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

Professional Flash Lite Mobile Development

CERN Document Server

Anderson, J G

2010-01-01

Discover how to create Flash Lite mobile apps from the ground up. Adobe Flash is an ideal choice for developing rich interactive content for "Flash-enabled" mobile devices; and with this book, you'll learn how to create unique applications with Flash Lite. Through a series of code samples and extensive example applications, you'll explore the core concepts, key features, and best practices of the Flash Lite player. Coverage reveals various ways to develop Flash mobile content, create applications with a cross-platform programming framework based on the Model, View and Controller conc

Search Engine Optimization for Flash Best Practices for Using Flash on the Web

CERN Document Server

Perkins, Todd

2009-01-01

Search Engine Optimization for Flash dispels the myth that Flash-based websites won't show up in a web search by demonstrating exactly what you can do to make your site fully searchable -- no matter how much Flash it contains. You'll learn best practices for using HTML, CSS and JavaScript, as well as SWFObject, for building sites with Flash that will stand tall in search rankings.

Fast uncooled module 32×32 array of polycrystalline PbSe used for muzzle flash detection

Science.gov (United States)

Kastek, Mariusz; Dulski, Rafał; Trzaskawka, Piotr; Bieszczad, Grzegorz

2011-06-01

The paper presents some aspects of muzzle flash detection using low resolution polycrystalline PbSe uncooled 32×32 detectors array. This system for muzzle flash detection works in MWIR (3 - 5 microns) region and it is based on VPD (Vapor Phase Deposition) technology. The low density uncooled 32×32 array is suitable for being used in low cost IR imagers sensitive in the MWIR band with frame rates exceeding 1.000 Hz. The FPA detector, read-out electronics and processing electronics (allowing the implementation of some algorithms for muzzle flash detection) has been presented. The system has been tested at field test ground. Results of detection range measurement with two types of optical systems (wide and narrow field of view) have been shown. The initial results of testing of some algorithms for muzzle flash detection have been also presented.

33 CFR 208.10 - Local flood protection works; maintenance and operation of structures and facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... shall be brought to a satisfactory condition or shall be promptly replaced. Diesel and gasoline engines... machines, fuel for gasoline or diesel powered equipment, and flash lights or lanterns for emergency... the efficient operation and maintenance of all of the structures and facilities during flood periods...

NAND flash memory technologies

CERN Document Server

Aritome, Seiichi

2016-01-01

This book discusses basic and advanced NAND flash memory technologies, including the principle of NAND flash, memory cell technologies, multi-bits cell technologies, scaling challenges of memory cell, reliability, and 3-dimensional cell as the future technology. Chapter 1 describes the background and early history of NAND flash. The basic device structures and operations are described in Chapter 2. Next, the author discusses the memory cell technologies focused on scaling in Chapter 3, and introduces the advanced operations for multi-level cells in Chapter 4. The physical limitations for scaling are examined in Chapter 5, and Chapter 6 describes the reliability of NAND flash memory. Chapter 7 examines 3-dimensional (3D) NAND flash memory cells and discusses the pros and cons in structure, process, operations, scalability, and performance. In Chapter 8, challenges of 3D NAND flash memory are dis ussed. Finally, in Chapter 9, the author summarizes and describes the prospect of technologies and market for the fu...

An Approach to Flooding Inundation Combining the Streamflow Prediction Tool (SPT) and Downscaled Soil Moisture

Science.gov (United States)

Cotterman, K. A.; Follum, M. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Niemann, J. D.

2017-12-01

Flooding impacts numerous aspects of society, from localized flash floods to continental-scale flood events. Many numerical flood models focus solely on riverine flooding, with some capable of capturing both localized and continental-scale flood events. However, these models neglect flooding away from channels that are related to excessive ponding, typically found in areas with flat terrain and poorly draining soils. In order to obtain a holistic view of flooding, we combine flood results from the Streamflow Prediction Tool (SPT), a riverine flood model, with soil moisture downscaling techniques to determine if a better representation of flooding is obtained. This allows for a more holistic understanding of potential flood prone areas, increasing the opportunity for more accurate warnings and evacuations during flooding conditions. Thirty-five years of near-global historical streamflow is reconstructed with continental-scale flow routing of runoff from global land surface models. Elevation data was also obtained worldwide, to establish a relationship between topographic attributes and soil moisture patterns. Derived soil moisture data is validated against observed soil moisture, increasing confidence in the ability to accurately capture soil moisture patterns. Potential flooding situations can be examined worldwide, with this study focusing on the United States, Central America, and the Philippines.

Torrential Flood Hazards Assessment, Management, And Mitigation, In Wadi Aday, Muscat Area, Sultanate Of Oman, A GIS and RS Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SalehI, A.S.; AI-Hatrushi, S.M.

2009-01-01

Flash flood hazard of Wadi Aday threaten human activities in an important urban area of Muscat City, the capital of Sultanate of Oman. To evaluate and mitigate these floods; Remote Sensing (IKONOS Images), Topographic and Cadastral maps, data of rainfall, floods and other data sources have been used under a GIS environment and manipulated. The study determined the areas under the flood risk, and clarified the risk class and degree for each of human activities object in the lower part of Wadi Aday. In order to mitigate the flood hazards, and to utilize the floods water in such extreme hot desert; the study suggested: establishing two dams and artificial channel added to some methods that reduce the erosion on canyon reach road

A UAV based system for real time flash flood monitoring in desert environments using Lagrangian microsensors

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed; Shaqura, Mohammad; Claudel, Christian G.; Gueaieb, Wail

2013-01-01

with advance warning, for which real time monitoring is critical. While satellite-based high resolution weather forecasts can help predict floods to a certain extent, they are not reliable enough, as flood models depend on a large number of parameters

Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

Science.gov (United States)

Cloke, Hannah

2014-05-01

Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by

Flash grundkursus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

2008-01-01

Flash er et programmeringssprog  og kan som sådant ikke noget i sig selv. Kursets mål er, at give den studerende et grundlæggende kendskab til Flash, så det kan bruges til præsentationer på skærm og til produktion af hjemmesider. På kurset arbejdes der med billede, grafik, lyd, video og interakti...

Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

2014-01-01

uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Geomorphic effects and sedimentological record of flash floods in the Copiapó River salt marsh (Atacama coast, Northern Chile)

Science.gov (United States)

Abad, Manuel; Fernández, Rolando; Izquierdo, Tatiana

2017-04-01

The Copiapó River is located South of the Atacama Desert (northern Chile) that is considered one of the most arid areas of the planet. On March 25 2015 this fluvial valley experienced one the largest hydrometeorological events recorded in historical times. The rain, unusually high, favored the run off in fluvial channels and alluvial fans that were dry for decades and triggered the rise and overflow of the Copiapó River at different points along the valley causing severe damages. In this work, we realize a characterization of the geomorphic configuration of the Copiapó River before and after this event with the aim of analyzing the main changes produced in the river mouth, where and extent coastal wetland of high ecological value is developed. The geomorphological mapping show a drastic change in the river mouth with the development of forms related with the river overflow and the flooding of the coastal plain such as levees, activation of abandoned channels, flooding lagoons, widening and deepening of the main channel, foredune rupture and, more importantly, a large mud sheet that covers almost the 80% of the study area, including the wetland and the main coastal dune systems. Just a small area of the wetland, far from the main channel, was not affected by this process as it was protected by the levees formed during the first stages of the overflow. The mud flow facies are homogeneous and consist of a layer of massive silty sands with a maximum thickness of 10-75 cm overlied by 5-20 cm of clay with wavy top and carbonaceous rest. It also presents a wide development of mud cracks and salt crusts. At the same time, 4 stages have been differentiated along the event: 1) arrival to the wetland of the first surge that flows in the channel and flooding of the southern sector of the wetland; 2) flooding of the complete mouth area because of the peak discharge arrival and generalize overflow with and associate muddy facies deposition; 3) erosional stage of the channel

Erosion and sedimentation during the September 2015 flooding of the Kinu River, central Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Dan Matsumoto; Sawai, Yuki; Yamada, Masaki; Namegaya, Yuichi; Shinozaki, Tetsuya; Takeda, Daisuke; Fujino, Shigehiro; Tanigawa, Koichiro; Nakamura, Atsunori; Pilarczyk, Jessica E

2016-09-28

Erosional and sedimentary features associated with flooding have been documented in both modern and past cases. However, only a few studies have demonstrated the relationship between these features and the corresponding hydraulic conditions that produced them, making it difficult to evaluate the magnitude of paleo-flooding. This study describes the characteristics associated with inundation depth and flow direction, as well as the erosional and sedimentary features resulting from the disastrous flooding of the Kinu River, central Japan, in September 2015. Water levels rose rapidly due to heavy rainfall that eventually overtopped, and subsequently breached, a levee in Joso City, causing destructive flooding on the surrounding floodplain. Distinctive erosional features are found next to the breached levee, while depositional features, such as a sandy crevasse-splay deposit are found further away from the breach. The deposit can be divided into three units based on sedimentary facies. The vertical and lateral changes of these sedimentary facies may be the result of temporal and spatial changes associated with flow during the single flooding event. These observations and quantitative data provide information that can be used to reveal the paleohydrology of flood deposits in the stratigraphic record, leading to improved mitigation of future flooding disasters.

The non-layering of gravel streambeds under ephemeral flood regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Laronne, Jonathan B.; Reid, Ian; Yitshak, Yitshak; Frostick, Lynne E.

1994-07-01

The two-layer format common to perennial streambeds, in which a relatively coarse armour overlies a finer subarmour, develops as a function of both the ingress and subsequent near-surface winnowing of interstitial material and the selective non-entrainment or slower transport velocity of coarse clasts. Ephemeral streams appear to lack such vertical layering or are characterized by weak layer development. Some of this may be due to the degree of mixing associated with the scour-and-fill process. However, continuous monitoring of bedload discharge in the Nahal Yatir in the northern Negev Desert reveals that sediment transport rates are extremely high so that the chance of armour layer development through selective non-entrainment is much reduced. Indeed, a comparison of the bedload and bed material size-distributions confirms a high degree of similarity and hints at equal mobility regardless of clast size. The monitoring programme also indicates that the bed becomes highly mobile at comparatively modest fluid shear, so that practically all floods are associated with high transport rates. Consequently, the winnowing that might be brought about by low transport-rate events does not occur. Even within a single event, winnowing is precluded by the rapid nature of flow recession that is so characteristic of flash-floods. The high degree of bed material mobility is attributable, in part, to the lack of strength that would otherwise be a corollary of armour development. However, it also highlights the divergent nature of the feedback loops that govern the relationship between flow and channel deposit in ephemeral and perennial systems.

Learning Flash CS4 Professional

CERN Document Server

Shupe, Rich

2009-01-01

Learning Flash CS4 Professional offers beginners and intermediate Flash developers a unique introduction to the latest version of Adobe's powerful multimedia application. This easy-to-read book is loaded with full-color examples and hands-on tasks to help you master Flash CS4's new motion editor, integrated 3D system, and character control using the new inverse kinematics bones animation system. No previous Flash experience is necessary.

Flashing oscillation in pool water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takamasa, Tomoji; Kondo, Koichi; Hazuku, Tatsuya

1996-01-01

This paper presents an experimental study of high-pressure saturated water discharging into the pool water. The purpose of the experiment is to clarify the phenomena that occur in blow-down of high-pressure saturated water from the pressure vessel into the water-filled containment in the case of a wall-crack accident or a LOCA in an advanced reactor. The results revealed that a flashing oscillation (FO) occurs when high-pressure saturated water discharges into the pool water, under specified experimental settings. The range of the flashing oscillates between a point very close to and some distance from the vent hole. The pressures in the vent tube and pool water vary according to the flashing oscillation. The pressure oscillation and frequency of flashing position might be caused by the balancing action between the supply of saturated water, flashing at the control volume and its condensation on the steam-water interface. A linear analysis was conducted using a spherical flashing bubble model. The period of the flashing oscillation in the experiments can be explained by theoretical analysis

Hot flashes and sleep in women.

Science.gov (United States)

Moe, Karen E

2004-12-01

Sleep disturbances during menopause are often attributed to nocturnal hot flashes and 'sweats' associated with changing hormone patterns. This paper is a comprehensive critical review of the research on the relationship between sleep disturbance and hot flashes in women. Numerous studies have found a relationship between self-reported hot flashes and sleep complaints. However, hot flash studies using objective sleep assessment techniques such as polysomnography, actigraphy, or quantitative analysis of the sleep EEG are surprisingly scarce and have yielded somewhat mixed results. Much of this limited evidence suggests that hot flashes are associated with objectively identified sleep disruption in at least some women. At least some of the negative data may be due to methodological issues such as reliance upon problematic self-reports of nocturnal hot flashes and a lack of concurrent measures of hot flashes and sleep. The recent development of a reliable and non-intrusive method for objectively identifying hot flashes during the night should help address the need for substantial additional research in this area. Several areas of clinical relevance are described, including the effects of discontinuing combined hormone therapy (estrogen plus progesterone) or estrogen-only therapy, the possibility of hot flashes continuing for many years after menopause, and the link between hot flashes and depression.

MR colonography with fecal tagging: comparison between 2D turbo FLASH and 3D FLASH sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papanikolaou, Nickolas; Grammatikakis, John; Maris, Thomas; Prassopoulos, Panos; Gourtsoyiannis, Nicholas; Lauenstein, Thomas

2003-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare inversion recovery turbo 2D fast low-angle shot (FLASH) and 3D FLASH sequences for fecal-tagged MR colonography studies. Fifteen consecutive patients with indications for colonoscopy underwent MR colonography with fecal tagging. An inversion recovery turbo-FLASH sequence was applied and compared in terms of artifacts presence, efficiency for masking residual stool, and colonic wall conspicuity with a fat-saturated 3D FLASH sequence. Both sequences were acquired following administration of paramagnetic contrast agent. Contrast-to-noise ratio and relative contrast between colonic wall and lumen were calculated and compared for both sequences. Turbo 2D FLASH provided fewer artifacts, higher efficiency for masking the residual stool, and colonic wall conspicuity equivalent to 3D FLASH. An inversion time of 10 ms provided homogeneously low signal intensity of the colonic lumen. Contrast to noise between colonic wall and lumen was significantly higher in the 3D FLASH images, whereas differences in relative contrast were not statistically significant. An optimized inversion-recovery 2D turbo-FLASH sequence provides better fecal tagging results and should be added to the 3D FLASH sequence when designing dark-lumen MR colonography examination protocols. (orig.)

Anthropogenic influences on the flood of 1997 in the river Rivillas (Badajoz). Land uses changes and geomorphic impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega Becerril, J. A.; Garzon Heydt, M. G.

2009-01-01

The Rivillas Stream, a tributary of the Guadiana River, is a small, seasonal watercourse that sporadically floods. The flooding that occurred on the 5th November 1977 was catastrophic; 22 deaths were recorded in the rivers basin plus another 15 in neighbouring basins. The intense transformation of the basin through agriculture and construction near the city of Badajoz have led to this river system becoming very unstable. This is equally true of its flood plain, its main course, its effluents, the slopes around the basin, and the remainder of the basin. The geomorphic impact of these changes only become noticeable when the flash-flood occurred ut to intense rainfall, highlighting the important negative effects of human activity in such sensitive environments. (Author) 7 refs.

A Real-Time Measurement System for Long-Life Flood Monitoring and Warning Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Skarmeta Gómez

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data inmany sparse locations during flood events.

Flash-Type Discrimination

Science.gov (United States)

Koshak, William J.

2010-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the significant progress made in the flash-type discrimination algorithm development. The contents include: 1) Highlights of Progress for GLM-R3 Flash-Type discrimination Algorithm Development; 2) Maximum Group Area (MGA) Data; 3) Retrieval Errors from Simulations; and 4) Preliminary Global-scale Retrieval.

The October 2014 United States Treasury bond flash crash and the contributory effect of mini flash crashes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zachary S Levine

Full Text Available We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention.

The October 2014 United States Treasury bond flash crash and the contributory effect of mini flash crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, Zachary S; Hale, Scott A; Floridi, Luciano

2017-01-01

We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a) this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b) mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention.

Investigation of flood pattern using ANOVA statistic and remote sensing in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ya'acob, Norsuzila; Ismail, Nor Syazwani; Mustafa, Norfazira; Yusof, Azita Laily

2014-01-01

Flood is an overflow or inundation that comes from river or other body of water and causes or threatens damages. In Malaysia, there are no formal categorization of flood but often broadly categorized as monsoonal, flash or tidal floods. This project will be focus on flood causes by monsoon. For the last few years, the number of extreme flood was occurred and brings great economic impact. The extreme weather pattern is the main sector contributes for this phenomenon. In 2010, several districts in the states of Kedah neighbour-hoods state have been hit by floods and it is caused by tremendous weather pattern. During this tragedy, the ratio of the rainfalls volume was not fixed for every region, and the flood happened when the amount of water increase rapidly and start to overflow. This is the main objective why this project has been carried out, and the analysis data has been done from August until October in 2010. The investigation was done to find the possibility correlation pattern parameters related to the flood. ANOVA statistic was used to calculate the percentage of parameters was involved and Regression and correlation calculate the strength of coefficient among parameters related to the flood while remote sensing image was used for validation between the calculation accuracy. According to the results, the prediction is successful as the coefficient of relation in flood event is 0.912 and proved by Terra-SAR image on 4th November 2010. The rates of change in weather pattern give the impact to the flood

Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

Science.gov (United States)

Hooke, J. M.

2015-12-01

In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

Cuinse2 Thin Film For Solar Cell By Flash Evaporation

OpenAIRE

A.H. Soepardjo

2009-01-01

Deposition of thin films for material solar cell CuInSe2 are relatively simple. In this research mainly focused on the use of flash evaporation method, and the material created can then be characterized by optical and electrical properties. The optical characterization is done by X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), and transmission and reflection by UV-VIS spectrophotometry. Electrical characterization is done by utilizing the Hall effect equipment. From these chara...

A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

Science.gov (United States)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

2015-04-01

Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

DIRCM FLASH Flight Tests

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Molocher, Bernhard; Kaltenecker, Anton; Thum-Jaeger, Andrea; Regensburger, Martin; Formery, Martin

2005-01-01

.... FLASH operation is as follows: After handover following an alarm from the missile warning system FLASH enters autonomous passive tracking mode for tracking a missiles and sending a laser beam onto the missile...

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Fuchs

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica and a rural (Evros area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area and flash floods (peri-urban area. Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human–environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

2017-06-01

Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

The sedimentology and uranium mineralisation of the Matjieskloof (GT7) deposit, Fraserburg district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Roux, J.P.

1982-08-01

A sedimentological investigation was carried out on the Matjieskloof prospect of JCI, 40 km south of Fraserburg at the foot of the Teekloof pass. The deposit is located in a thick, tabular sandstone forming part of the Poortjie Member at the base of the Teekloof Formation. A study of sedimentary structures, grain sizes and palaeocurrents in the sandstone sequence at Matjieskloof suggests a general decrease in energy conditions upward in the succession, indicating denudation of the source areas to the south-west. The depositional environment of the mineralised S1-sandstone as revealed by field work and borehole analysis, is that of a low-sinuosity, braided river of the Bijou Creek type, deposited during ephemeral flash floods in a semi-arid environment. Three main flow systems are revealed by the palaeocurrent analysis, showing good correspondence with the reconstructed palaeoriver system. In the areas where these flow systems cross, scouring of the S2-sandstone into the underlying S1-sandstone occured. These regions also correspond to the confluence areas of channels within the braided river system, and apparently formed favourable environments for uranium mineralisation. This may be due to the presence of erosion surfaces within these areas, the increased thickness of sandstones and the accumulation of plant material, controlled by current velocities. Molybdenum shows a similar distribution to the uranium mineralisation, and both are clearly controlled by the sedimentological sub-environments

Revision of regional maximum flood (RMF) estimation in Namibia

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2013-11-26

Nov 26, 2013 ... sediment deposits, also known as slackwater flood deposits, are stage indicators of ..... of these stations has been operational for 33 years. This cor- responds to ..... Management, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel. GRODEK T ...

Prioritising watersheds on the basis of regional flood susceptibility and vulnerability in mountainous areas through the use of indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelis, Carolina; Werner, Micha

2013-04-01

Settlements in peri-urban areas of many cities in mountainous areas such as in the Andes are susceptible to hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Additionally these settlements are in many cases informal and thus vulnerable to such hazards, resulting in significant risk. Such watersheds are often quiet small, and generally there is little or no information from gauges to help characterise risk. To help identify watersheds in which flood management measures are to be targeted, a rapid assessment of risk is required. In this paper a novel approach is presented where indicators of susceptibility and vulnerability to flash floods were used to prioritize 106 mountain watersheds in Bogotá (Colombia). Variables recognized in literature to determine the dominant processes both in susceptibility and vulnerability to flash floods were used to construct the indicators. Susceptibility was considered to increase with flashiness and the possibility of debris flow events occurring. This was assessed through the use of an indicator composed of a morphometric indicator and a land use indicator. The former was constructed using morphological variables recognized in literature to significantly influence flashiness and occurrence of debris flows; the latter was constructed in terms of percentage of vegetation cover, urban area and bare soil. The morphometric indicator was compared with the results of a debris flow propagation algorithm to assess its capacity in indentifying the morphological conditions of a watershed that make it able to transport debris flows. Propagation was carried out through the use of the Modified Single Flow Direction algorithm, following previous identification of source areas by applying thresholds identified in the area-slope curve of the watersheds and empirical thresholds. Results show that the morphometric variables can be grouped in four categories: size, shape, hypsometry and energy, with the energy the component found to best explain the

Flashing inception in flowing liquids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, O.C. Jr.

1979-01-01

The inception of net vaporization in flashing flows is examined. It is suggested that the flashing inception can be expressed as two additive effects. One is due to the static decompression which is a function of the spinodal limit and also of the expansion rate. The other effect which is a function of Reynolds number and flashing index, is due to the turbulent fluctuations of the flowing liquid. It is shown that by taking a three standard deviation band on the turbulent velocity fluctuations, an adequate representation of the inverse mass flux effect on flashing inception for existing data is obtained

Statistical Evolution of the Lightning Flash

Science.gov (United States)

Zoghzoghy, F. G.; Cohen, M.; Said, R.; Inan, U. S.

2012-12-01

Natural lightning is one of the most fascinating and powerful electrical processes on Earth. To date, the physics behind this natural phenomenon are not fully understood, due primarily to the difficulty of obtaining measurements inside thunderstorms and to the wide range of timescales involved (from nanoseconds to seconds). Our aim is to use accurate lightning geo-location data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to study statistical patterns in lightning, taking advantage of the fact that millions of lightning flashes occur around the globe every day. We present two sets of results, one involving the patterns of flashes in a storm, and a second involving the patterns of strokes in a flash. These patterns can provide a surrogate measure of the timescales and the spatial extents of the underlying physical processes. First, we study the timescales of charge buildup inside thunderstorms. We find that, following a lightning flash, the probability of another neighboring flash decreases and takes tens of seconds to recover. We find that this suppression effect is a function of flash type, stroke peak current, cloud-to-ground (CG) stroke multiplicity, and other lightning and geographical parameters. We find that the probabilities of subsequent flashes are more suppressed following oceanic lightning, or following flashes with higher peak currents and/or higher multiplicities (for CG flashes). Second, we use NLDN data to study the evolution of the strokes within a CG flash. A CG flash typically includes multiple return strokes, which can occur in the same channel or in multiple channels within a few kilometers. We cluster NLDN stroke data into flashes and produce the probability density function of subsequent strokes as a function of distance and time-delays relative to the previous stroke. Using this technique, we investigate processes which occur during the CG lightning flash with nanosecond to millisecond timescales. For instance, our results suggest

Comparison Of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates Derived From Rain Gauge And Radar Derived Algorithms For Operational Flash Flood Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Streubel, D. P.; Kodama, K.

2014-12-01

To provide continuous flash flood situational awareness and to better differentiate severity of ongoing individual precipitation events, the National Weather Service Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) is being implemented over Hawaii and Alaska. In the implementation process of RDHM, three gridded precipitation analyses are used as forcing. The first analysis is a radar only precipitation estimate derived from WSR-88D digital hybrid reflectivity, a Z-R relationship and aggregated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid. The second analysis is derived from a rain gauge network and interpolated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid using PRISM climatology. The third analysis is derived from a rain gauge network where rain gauges are assigned static pre-determined weights to derive a uniform mean areal precipitation that is applied over a catchment on a ¼ HRAP grid. To assess the effect of different QPE analyses on the accuracy of RDHM simulations and to potentially identify a preferred analysis for operational use, each QPE was used to force RDHM to simulate stream flow for 20 USGS peak flow events. An evaluation of the RDHM simulations was focused on peak flow magnitude, peak flow timing, and event volume accuracy to be most relevant for operational use. Results showed RDHM simulations based on the observed rain gauge amounts were more accurate in simulating peak flow magnitude and event volume relative to the radar derived analysis. However this result was not consistent for all 20 events nor was it consistent for a few of the rainfall events where an annual peak flow was recorded at more than one USGS gage. Implications of this indicate that a more robust QPE forcing with the inclusion of uncertainty derived from the three analyses may provide a better input for simulating extreme peak flow events.

Poster abstract: Water level estimation in urban ultrasonic/passive infrared flash flood sensor networks using supervised learning

KAUST Repository

Mousa, Mustafa

2014-04-01

This article describes a machine learning approach to water level estimation in a dual ultrasonic/passive infrared urban flood sensor system. We first show that an ultrasonic rangefinder alone is unable to accurately measure the level of water on a road due to thermal effects. Using additional passive infrared sensors, we show that ground temperature and local sensor temperature measurements are sufficient to correct the rangefinder readings and improve the flood detection performance. Since floods occur very rarely, we use a supervised learning approach to estimate the correction to the ultrasonic rangefinder caused by temperature fluctuations. Preliminary data shows that water level can be estimated with an absolute error of less than 2 cm. © 2014 IEEE.

Menopausal Hot Flashes and White Matter Hyperintensities

Science.gov (United States)

Thurston, Rebecca C.; Aizenstein, Howard J.; Derby, Carol A.; Sejdić, Ervin; Maki, Pauline M.

2015-01-01

Objective Hot flashes are the classic menopausal symptom. Emerging data links hot flashes to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, yet how hot flashes are related to brain health is poorly understood. We examined the relationship between hot flashes - measured via physiologic monitor and self-report - and white matter hyperintensities (WMH) among midlife women. Methods Twenty midlife women ages 40-60 without clinical CVD, with their uterus and both ovaries, and not taking hormone therapy were recruited. Women underwent 24 hours of ambulatory physiologic and diary hot flash monitoring to quantify hot flashes; magnetic resonance imaging to assess WMH burden; 72 hours of actigraphy and questionnaires to quantify sleep; and a blood draw, questionnaires, and physical measures to quantify demographics and CVD risk factors. Test of a priori hypotheses regarding relations between physiologically-monitored and self-reported wake and sleep hot flashes and WMH were conducted in linear regression models. Results More physiologically-monitored hot flashes during sleep were associated with greater WMH, controlling for age, race, and body mass index [beta(standard error)=.0002 (.0001), p=.03]. Findings persisted controlling for sleep characteristics and additional CVD risk factors. No relations were observed for self-reported hot flashes. Conclusions More physiologically-monitored hot flashes during sleep were associated with greater WMH burden among midlife women free of clinical CVD. Results suggest that relations between hot flashes and CVD risk observed in the periphery may extend to the brain. Future work should consider the unique role of sleep hot flashes in brain health. PMID:26057822

Foundation Flash CS4 for Designers

CERN Document Server

Green, Tom

2008-01-01

In this book, you'll learn:* How to create effective animations using the new Motion Editor and animation tools * How to use the new 3D features to animate objects in 3D space * Best-practice tips and techniques from some of the top Flash practitioners on the planet * How to create captioned video and full-screen video, and deploy HD video using Flash * Techniques for using the Flash UI components as well as XML documents to create stunning,interactive presentations If you're a Flash designer looking for a solid overview of Flash CS4, this book is for you. Through the use of solid and practica

Technology of uncooled fast polycrystalline PbSe focal plane arrays in systems for muzzle flash detection

Science.gov (United States)

Kastek, Mariusz; PiÄ tkowski, Tadeusz; Polakowski, Henryk; Barela, Jaroslaw; Firmanty, Krzysztof; Trzaskawka, Piotr; Vergara, German; Linares, Rodrigo; Gutierrez, Raul; Fernandez, Carlos; Montojo Supervielle, Maria Teresa

2014-05-01

The paper presents some aspects of muzzle flash detection using low resolution polycrystalline PbSe 32×32 and 80×80 detectors FPA operating at room temperature (uncooled performance). These sensors, which detect in MWIR (3 - 5 microns region) and are manufactured using proprietary technology from New Infrared Technologies (VPD PbSe - Vapor Phase Deposition of polycrystalline PbSe), can be applied to muzzle flash detection. The system based in the uncooled 80×80 FPA monolithically integrated with the CMOS readout circuitry has allowed image recording with frame rates over 2000 Hz (true snapshot acquisition), whereas the lower density, uncooled 32×32 FPA is suitable for being used in low cost infrared imagers sensitive in the MWIR band with frame rates above 1000 Hz. The FPA detector, read-out electronics and processing electronics (allows the implementation of some algorithms for muzzle flash detection) of both systems are presented. The systems have been tested at field test ground. Results of detection range measurement with two types of optical systems (wide and narrow field of view) have been shown. The theoretical analysis of possibility detection of muzzle flash and initial results of testing of some algorithms for muzzle flash detection have been presented too.

Flood Risk Management in Remote and Impoverished Areas—A Case Study of Onaville, Haiti

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentin Heimhuber

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, geographic information system (GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modeling was used to perform a flood risk assessment for Onaville, which is a fairly new, rapidly growing informal settlement that is exposed to dangerous flash-flood events. Since records of historic floods did not exist for the study area, design storms with a variety of significant average return intervals (ARIs were derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves and transformed into design floods via rainfall-runoff modeling in hydrologic engineering center’s hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS. The hydraulic modeling software hydrologic engineering center’s river analysis system (HEC-RAS was used to perform one-dimensional, unsteady-flow simulations of the design floods in the Ravine Lan Couline, which is the major drainage channel of the area. Topographic data comprised a 12 m spatial resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM and a 30 cm spatial resolution DEM created with mapping drones. The flow simulations revealed that large areas of the settlement are currently exposed to flood hazard. The results of the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling were incorporated into a flood hazard map which formed the basis for flood risk management. We present a grassroots approach for preventive flood risk management on a community level, which comprises the elaboration of a neighborhood contingency plan and a flood risk awareness campaign together with representatives of the local community of Onaville.

Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

2017-01-01

External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

Detection of Malicious Flash Banner Advertisements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirill Alekseevich Samosadnyy

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The paper addresses the problem of detecting malicious flash advertisements. As a result, detection method based on dynamic analysis that modify flash application and execute it in Adobe Flash player is proposed and evaluated on synthetic and real world examples.

Geochemical characterisation of Elbe river high flood sediments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krueger, F. [UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle GmbH, Falkenberg (Germany). Sektion Boden-/Gewaesserforschung]|[UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Sektion Gewaesserforschung; Rupp, H.; Meissner, R. [UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle GmbH, Falkenberg (Germany). Sektion Boden-/Gewaesserforschung; Lohse, M.; Buettner, O.; Friese, K. [UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Sektion Gewaesserforschung; Miehlich, G. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Bodenkunde

2001-07-01

Quality aims for land usage in flood plains have to be worked out in the Russian-German research project 'Effects of floods on the pollution of agricultural used flood plain soils of the Oka River and the Elbe River'. It is financed by the Germany Ministry of Education and Research (FKZ 02 WT 9617/0). Beside the characterisation of the present pollution of soils for the middle Elbe, it is necessary to prognosticate the current pollutant input. At the examination site nearby Wittenberge, Elbe River kilometers 435 and 440, natural deposited flood sediments were sampled by artificial lawn mats. By the geochemical characterisation it is possible to record the metal input into the flood plain and to win knowledge about the sedimentation process. The results of sediment investigation of the high flood in spring 1997 are presented. (orig.)

On multiphase negative flash for ideal solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yan, Wei; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

2012-01-01

simpler than the corresponding normal flash algorithm. Unlike normal flash, multiphase negative flash for ideal solutions can diverge if the feasible domain for phase amounts is not closed. This can be judged readily during the iteration process. The algorithm can also be extended to the partial negative......There is a recent interest to solve multiphase negative flash problems where the phase amounts can be negative for normal positive feed composition. Solving such a negative flash problem using successive substitution needs an inner loop for phase distribution calculation at constant fugacity...... coefficients. It is shown that this inner loop, named here as multiphase negative flash for ideal solutions, can be solved either by Michelsen's algorithm for multiphase normal flash, or by its variation which uses F−1 phase amounts as independent variables. In either case, the resulting algorithm is actually...

Measuring hot flash phenomenonology using ambulatory prospective digital diaries

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, William I.; Thurston, Rebecca C.

2016-01-01

Objective This study provides the description, protocol, and results from a novel prospective ambulatory digital hot flash phenomenon diary. Methods This study included 152 midlife women with daily hot flashes who completed an ambulatory electronic hot flash diary continuously for the waking hours of 3 consecutive days. In this diary, women recorded their hot flashes and accompanying characteristics and associations as the hot flashes occurred. Results Self-reported hot flash severity on the digital diaries indicated that the majority of hot flashes were rated as mild (41.3%) or moderate (43.7%). Severe (13.1%) and very severe (1.8%) hot flashes were less common. Hot flash bother ratings were rated as mild (43%), or moderate (33.5%), with fewer hot flashes reported bothersome (17.5%) or very bothersome (6%). The majority of hot flashes were reported as occurring on the on the face (78.9%), neck (74.7%), and chest (61.3%). Prickly skin was reported concurrently with 32% of hot flashes, 7% with anxiety and 5% with nausea. A novel finding, 38% of hot flashes were accompanied by a premonitory aura. Conclusion A prospective electronic digital hot flash diary allows for a more precise quantitation of hot flashes while overcoming many of the limitations of commonly employed retrospective questionnaires and paper diaries. Unique insights into the phenomenology, loci and associated characteristics of hot flashes were obtained using this device. The digital hot flash phenomenology diary is recommended for future ambulatory studies of hot flashes as a prospective measure of the hot flash experience. PMID:27404030

Flood risk on the Black sea coast of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Alekseevsky, Nikolay; Magritsky, Dmitry; Koltermann, Peter; Krylenko, Inna; Umina, Natalya; Aybulatov, Denis; Efremova, Natalya; Lebedeva, Seraphima

2013-04-01

The data of unique database "Floods in the coastal zones of Europeans part of Russia", developed by authors, are shown, that frequency of floods and damage in the coastal zones are growing. There is most dangerous situation on the Black sea coast of Russia. Here the main part of settlements, resorts and industry is situated in the river valleys and mouths. All main roads and pipelines cross the river channels. The Black sea rivers have flood regime with high intensity of flood formations and huge destructive flood power. Despite prevalence of floods during the cold period of year the most part of high floods in 100 years of supervision was noted here in the summer-fall (65% in July-October). Usually they were induced by the showers connected with passing of powerful cyclones, atmospheric fronts, and water tornadoes. The insignificant part of floods was connected with snow melting, backwater phenomena, showers in the cities and dam breaks. Thus shower induced floods here are the most widespread and destructive. Usually they arise within two-three watersheds simultaneously. Formation catastrophic heavy rain flood is possible on any site of a river valley of the Black Sea coast. The wave of a high water moves with very high speed, carrying a large number of deposits and garbage. To the mouth the flood can be transformed into debris flow. The water levels during a high water period rise on 3-6 m in the channels, and up to 11-12 m in the river canyons; the maximum depths of flow on the floodplains are 3 m and more. Flooding depths, induced by slope streams, can be to 0,5 m and higher. Flooding proceeds only some hours. After that water rather quickly flows down from a floodplains to the bed of the rivers and into the sea, leaving traces of destructions, a powerful layer of deposits (to 10-20 cm and more) and garbage. In the mouth river deposits quite often form the river mouth bar which is washed away during next storms. The damage from river floods on the Black Sea

Grain-size evolution in suspended sediment and deposits from the 2004 and 2008 controlled-flood experiments in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Draut, Amy E.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Wright, Scott A.; Schmidt, John C.

2010-01-01

Since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, the hydrology, sediment supply, and distribution and size of modern alluvial deposits in the Colorado River through Grand Canyon have changed substantially (e.g., Howard and Dolan, 1981; Johnson and Carothers, 1987; Webb et al., 1999; Rubin et al., 2002; Topping et al., 2000, 2003; Wright et al., 2005; Hazel et al., 2006). The dam has reduced the fluvial sediment supply at the upstream boundary of Grand Canyon National Park by about 95 percent. Regulation of river discharge by dam operations has important implications for the storage and redistribution of sediment in the Colorado River corridor. In the absence of natural floods, sediment is not deposited at elevations that regularly received sediment before dam closure. There has been a systemwide decrease in the size and number of subaerially exposed fluvial sand deposits since the 1960s, punctuated by episodic aggradation during the exceptional high-flow intervals in the early 1980s and by sediment input from occasional tributary floods (Beus and others, 1985; Schmidt and Graf, 1990; Kearsley et al., 1994; Schmidt et al., 2004; Wright et al., 2005; Hazel et al., 2006). Fluvial sandbars are an important component of riparian ecology that, among other functions, enclose eddy backwaters that form native-fish habitat, provide a source for eolian sand that protects some archaeological sites, and are used as campsites by thousands of river-runners annually (Rubin et al., 1990; Kearsley et al., 1994; Neal et al., 2000; Wright et al., 2005; Draut and Rubin, 2008).

Optimal proximity correction: application for flash memory design

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y. O.; Huang, D. L.; Sung, K. T.; Chiang, J. J.; Yu, M.; Teng, F.; Chu, Lung; Rey, Juan C.; Bernard, Douglas A.; Li, Jiangwei; Li, Junling; Moroz, V.; Boksha, Victor V.

1998-06-01

Proximity Correction is the technology for which the most of IC manufacturers are committed already. The final intended result of correction is affected by many factors other than the optical characteristics of the mask-stepper system, such as photoresist exposure, post-exposure bake and development parameters, etch selectivity and anisotropy, and underlying topography. The most advanced industry and research groups already reported immediate need to consider wafer topography as one of the major components during a Proximity Correction procedure. In the present work we are discussing the corners rounding effect (which eventually cause electrical leakage) observed for the elements of Poly2 layer for a Flash Memory Design. It was found that the rounding originated by three- dimensional effects due to variation of photoresist thickness resulting from the non-planar substrate. Our major goal was to understand the reasons and correct corner rounding. As a result of this work highly effective layout correction methodology was demonstrated and manufacturable Depth Of Focus was achieved. Another purpose of the work was to demonstrate complete integration flow for a Flash Memory Design based on photolithography; deposition/etch; ion implantation/oxidation/diffusion; and device simulators.

Flood Plain Aggradation Rates Based on Tree-Ring Growth-Suppression Dates

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, J. M.

2003-12-01

When woody riparian plants are partially buried subsequent tree rings of the buried stems resemble those of roots. Annual rings in a buried stem are narrower and have larger vessels then those in unburied sections of the same stem. We have used this phenomenon to date flood plain sediments exposed in trenches, along two ephemeral streams in New Mexico (Rio Puerco and Chaco Wash) where the sediments are predominantly silt and very fine sand and the plants are predominantly tamarisk and willow. Cross dating down the stem allows dating of the first growth-season following burial by thick beds, and constrains the age of all stratigraphic units deposited since germination of the tree. We observed that the anatomical reaction to burial increases with bed thickness and cumulative deposition. Beds that are thicker than 30 cm can be dated to the year of the deposition event. Beds 10 to 30 cm thick can usually be dated to within several years. The period of deposition of multiple very thin beds can be constrained to the decade. Results can be improved by analyzing multiple stems from one tree and multiple trees linked together by the stratigraphy. Along our study streams, sites far from the channel tend to have moderate and relatively steady point-aggradation rates. Levees next to the channel tend to have the thickest deposits per flood and variable long-term rates, which can differ from the whole flood plain aggradation rates by several fold. Cross-sectionally averaged flood plain aggradation has been as large as a meter per decade along our study streams.

Flooding and Flood Management

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred

2016-04-01

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Characterization of remarkable floods in France, a transdisciplinary approach applied on generalized floods of January 1910

Science.gov (United States)

Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

2014-05-01

emphasize one flood typology or one flood dynamic (for example flash floods are often over-represented than slow dynamic floods in existing databases). Thus, the selected criteria have to introduce a general overview of flooding risk in France by integrating all typologies: storm surges, torrential floods, rising groundwater level and resulting to flood, etc. The methodology developed for the evaluation grid is inspired by several scientific works related to historical hydrology (Bradzil, 2006; Benito et al., 2004) or extreme floods classification (Kundzewics et al. 2013; Garnier E., 2005). The referenced information are mainly issued from investigations realized for the PFRA (archives, local data),from internet databases on flooding disasters, and from a complementary bibliography (some scientists such as Maurice Pardé a geographer who largely documented French floods during the 20th century). The proposed classification relies on three main axes. Each axis is associated to a set of criteria, each one related to a score (from 0.5 to 4 points), and pointing out a final remarkability score. • The flood intensity characterizing the flood's hazard level. It is composed of the submersion duration, important to valorize floods with slow dynamics as flooding from groundwater, the event peak discharge's return period, and the presence of factors increasing significantly the hazard level (dykes breaks, log jam, sediment transport…) • The flood severity focuses on economic damages, social and political repercussions, media coverage of the event, fatalities number or eventual flood warning failures. Analyzing the flood consequences is essential in order to evaluate the vulnerability of society at disaster date. • The spatial extension of the flood, which contributes complementary information to the two first axes. The evaluation grid was tested and applied on the sample of 176 remarkable events. Around twenty events (from 1856 to 2010) come out with a high remarkability rate

2010-2011 Queensland floods: using Haddon's Matrix to define and categorise public safety strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Shuang; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu; Zang, Yu-Li; FitzGerald, Gerry

2013-08-01

The 2010-2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words 'flood', 'fatality', 'mortality', 'death', 'injury' and 'victim' through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010-2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997-2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities. © 2013 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Flashing inception in flowing liquids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, O.C. Jr.

1980-01-01

The inception of net vaporization in flashing flows is examined. It is suggested that the flashing inception can be expressed as two additive effects. One is due to the static decompression which is a function of the initial temperature and also the expansion rate. The other effect which is a function of Reynolds number and flashing index, is due to the turbulent fluctuations of the flowing liquid. It is shown that by taking a three standard deviation band on the turbulent velocity fluctuations, an adequate representation of the inverse mass flux effect on flashing inception for existing data is obtained. The turbulence effects are combined with the correlation of Alamgir and Lienhard to provide predictive methods recommended for the case where both static and convective decompression effects exist

Hydro-morphodynamic modelling of a volcano-induced sediment-laden outburst flood at Sólheimajökull, Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, M.; Wright, N.; Sleigh, P. A.; Carrivick, J.; Staines, K.

2013-12-01

Outburst floods are one of the most catastrophic natural hazards for populations and infrastructure. Such high-magnitude sudden onset floods generally comprise of an advancing intense kinematic water wave that can induce considerable sediment transport. The exploration and investigation of sediment-laden outburst floods cannot be limited solely to water flow but must also include the flood-induced sediment transport. Understanding the complex flow-bed interaction process in large (field) scale outburst floods is still limited, not least due to a lack of well-constrained field data, but also because consensus on appropriate modelling schemes has yet to be decided. In recent years, attention has focussed on the numerical models capable of describing the process of erosion, transport and deposition in such flows and they are now at a point at which they provide useful quantitative data. Although the "exact" measure of bed change is still unattainable the numerical models enhance and improve insights into large outburst flood events. In this study, a volcano-induced jökulhlaup or glacial outburst flood (GLOF) at Sólheimajökull, Iceland is reproduced by novel 2D hydro-morphodynamic model that considers both bedload and suspended load based on shallow water theory. The simulation of sediment-laden outburst flood is shown to perform well, with further insights into the flow-bed interaction behaviour obtained from the modelling output. These results are beneficial to flood risk management and hazard prevention and mitigation. In summary, the modelling outputs show that (1) the quantity of bed erosion and deposition are sensitive to the sediment gain size, yet, the influences are not so significant when considering flow discharge; (2) finer resolution of topography increases the computational time significantly yet the results are not affected correspondingly; (3) the bed changes simulated by the present model achieves reasonably good agreement with those by the

GeckoFTL: Scalable Flash Translation Techniques For Very Large Flash Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dayan, Niv; Bonnet, Philippe; Idreos, Stratos

2016-01-01

The volume of metadata needed by a flash translation layer (FTL) is proportional to the storage capacity of a flash device. Ideally, this metadata should reside in the device's integrated RAM to enable fast access. However, as flash devices scale to terabytes, the necessary volume of metadata...... thereby harming performance and device lifetime. In this paper, we identify a key component of the metadata called the Page Validity Bitmap (PVB) as the bottleneck. PVB is used by the garbage-collectors of state-of-the-art FTLs to keep track of which physical pages in the device are invalid. PVB...... constitutes 95% of the FTL's RAM-resident metadata, and recovering PVB after power fails takes a significant proportion of the overall recovery time. To solve this problem, we propose a page-associative FTL called GeckoFTL, whose central innovation is replacing PVB with a new data structure called Logarithmic...

An Analysis of Total Lightning Flash Rates Over Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzetti, Thomas O.; Fuelberg, Henry E.

2017-12-01

Although Florida is known as the "Sunshine State", it also contains the greatest lightning flash densities in the United States. Flash density has received considerable attention in the literature, but lightning flash rate has received much less attention. We use data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) to produce a 5 year (2010-2014) set of statistics regarding total flash rates over Florida and adjacent regions. Instead of tracking individual storms, we superimpose a 0.2° × 0.2° grid over the study region and count both cloud-to-ground (CG) and in-cloud (IC) flashes over 5 min intervals. Results show that the distribution of total flash rates is highly skewed toward small values, whereas the greatest rate is 185 flashes min-1. Greatest average annual flash rates ( 3 flashes min-1) are located near Orlando. The southernmost peninsula, North Florida, and the Florida Panhandle exhibit smaller average annual flash rates ( 1.5 flashes min-1). Large flash rates > 100 flashes min-1 can occur during any season, at any time during the 24 h period, and at any location within the domain. However, they are most likely during the afternoon and early evening in East Central Florida during the spring and summer months.

Photoluminescence of polycrystalline CuIn 0.5 Ga 0.5 Te 2 thin films grown by flash evaporation

KAUST Repository

Yandjah, L.; Bechiri, L.; Benabdeslem, M.; Benslim, N.; Amara, A.; Portier, X.; Bououdina, M.; Ziani, Ahmed

2018-01-01

Polycrystalline CuIn0.5Ga0.5Te2 films were deposited by flash evaporation from ingot prepared by reacting, in stoichiometric proportions, high purity Cu, In, Ga and Te elements in vacuum sealed quartz . The as-obtained films were characterized by X

Flash CS4: The Missing Manual

CERN Document Server

Grover, Chris

2008-01-01

Unlock the power of Flash and bring gorgeous animations to life onscreen. Flash CS4: The Missing Manual includes a complete primer on animation, a guided tour of the program's tools and capabilities, lots of new illustrations, and more details on working with video. Beginners will learn to use the software in no time, and experienced Flash designers will improve their skills.

The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

Tracking sedimentation from the historic A.D. 2011 Mississippi River flood in the deltaic wetlands of Louisiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Nicole S.; Horton, Benjamin P.; McKee, Karen L.; Jerolmack, Douglas; Falcini, Federico; Enache, Mihaela D.; Vane, Christopher H.

2013-01-01

Management and restoration of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (southern United States) and associated wetlands require a quantitative understanding of sediment delivery during large flood events, past and present. Here, we investigate the sedimentary fingerprint of the 2011 Mississippi River flood across the Louisiana coast (Atchafalaya Delta, Terrebonne, Barataria, and Mississippi River Delta basins) to assess spatial patterns of sedimentation and to identify key indicators of sediment provenance. The sediment deposited in wetlands during the 2011 flood was distinguished from earlier deposits based on biological characteristics, primarily absence of plant roots and increased presence of centric (planktonic) diatoms indicative of riverine origin. By comparison, the lithological (bulk density, organic matter content, and grain size) and chemical (stable carbon isotopes of bulk organic matter) properties of flood sediments were nearly identical to the underlying deposit. Flood sediment deposition was greatest in wetlands near the Atchafalaya and Mississippi Rivers and accounted for a substantial portion (37% to 85%) of the annual accretion measured at nearby monitoring stations. The amount of sediment delivered to those basins (1.1–1.6 g cm−2) was comparable to that reported previously for hurricane sedimentation along the Louisiana coast (0.8–2.1 g cm−2). Our findings not only provide insight into how large-scale river floods influence wetland sedimentation, they lay the groundwork for identifying previous flood events in the stratigraphic record.

Flashing coupled density wave oscillation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Shengyao; Wu Xinxin; Zhang Youjie

1997-07-01

The experiment was performed on the test loop (HRTL-5), which simulates the geometry and system design of the 5 MW reactor. The phenomenon and mechanism of different kinds of two-phase flow instabilities, namely geyser instability, flashing instability and flashing coupled density wave instability are described. The especially interpreted flashing coupled density wave instability has never been studied well, it is analyzed by using a one-dimensional non-thermo equilibrium two-phase flow drift model computer code. Calculations are in good agreement with the experiment results. (5 refs.,5 figs., 1 tab.)

Flash CS5 The Missing Manual

CERN Document Server

Grover, Chris

2010-01-01

Once you know how to use Flash, you can create everything from simple animations to high-end desktop applications, but it's a complex tool that can be difficult to master on your own-unless you have this Missing Manual. This book will help you learn all you need to know about Flash CS5 to create animations that bring your ideas to life. Learn animation basics. Find everything you need to know to get started with FlashMaster the Flash tools. Learn the animation and effects toolset, with clear explanations and hands-on examplesUse 3D effects. Rotate and put objects in motion in three dimensions

A Durable Flash Memory Search Tree

OpenAIRE

Clay III, James; Wortman, Kevin

2012-01-01

We consider the task of optimizing the B-tree data structure, used extensively in operating systems and databases, for sustainable usage on multi-level flash memory. Empirical evidence shows that this new flash memory tree, or FM Tree, extends the operational lifespan of each block of flash memory by a factor of roughly 27 to 70 times, while still supporting logarithmic-time search tree operations.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2015-12-01

The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

INFLUENCE OF DEM IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT AS FLOOD ZONATION MAPPING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Alrajhi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Despite of valuable efforts from working groups and research organizations towards flood hazard reduction through its program, still minimal diminution from these hazards has been realized. This is mainly due to the fact that with rapid increase in population and urbanization coupled with climate change, flood hazards are becoming increasingly catastrophic. Therefore there is a need to understand and access flood hazards and develop means to deal with it through proper preparations, and preventive measures. To achieve this aim, Geographical Information System (GIS, geospatial and hydrological models were used as tools to tackle with influence of flash floods in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia due to existence of large valleys (Wadis which is a matter of great concern. In this research paper, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs of different resolution (30m, 20m,10m and 5m have been used, which have proven to be valuable tool for the topographic parameterization of hydrological models which are the basis for any flood modelling process. The DEM was used as input for performing spatial analysis and obtaining derivative products and delineate watershed characteristics of the study area using ArcGIS desktop and its Arc Hydro extension tools to check comparability of different elevation models for flood Zonation mapping. The derived drainage patterns have been overlaid over aerial imagery of study area, to check influence of greater amount of precipitation which can turn into massive destructions. The flow accumulation maps derived provide zones of highest accumulation and possible flow directions. This approach provide simplified means of predicting extent of inundation during flood events for emergency action especially for large areas because of large coverage area of the remotely sensed data.

Research of coal flash hydropyrolysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, Z.; Zhu, H.; Wu, Y.; Tang, L.; Cheng, L.; Xu, Z. [East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai (China)

2001-02-01

Using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analyses the organic sufur of seven different Chinese coals and their semi-cokes from flash hydropyrolysis were studied. The results showed that the organic sulfur in coal was alkyal sulfur and thiophene with the peak of XPS located in 163.1-163.5 eV and 164.1-164.5 eV. The relative thiophene content in coal increased with the coal rank. The type of organic sulfur in semi-coke in flash hydropyrolysis was generally thiophene species; its XPS peak also located in 164.1-164.5 eV, and was in accord with its corresponding coal. Total alkyl sulfur and some thiophene sulfur were removed during the flash hydropyrolysis process. The alkyl sulfur had very high activity in hydrogenation reaction. Flash hydropyrolysis was an important new clean-coal technique and had notable desulfurization effect. 13 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.

Radar-based Flood Warning System for Houston, Texas and Its Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2009-12-01

Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.

Luminescence dating of flash flood deposits: a new approach for the chronological study of ancient irrigation perimeters in southern Yemen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balescu, S.; Lamothe, M.; Coque-Delhuille, B.

1998-01-01

This study is an attempt to assess the age of ancient irrigation silts from Southern Yemen using the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the constituent K-feldspar grains. This OSL dating method is tested on the al-Haraja irrigation sequence (Wadi Bayhan) which overlies an archaeological occupation level previously dated at 2 203±123 years BP by 14 C. The OSL age estimates range between 2 097±177 years at the bottom of the sequence and 1 555±150 years at the top. This study demonstrates the potential of the luminescence dating method to provide chronological information on the deposition of ancient silts following irrigation in arid environment where 14 C datable material is rare. (authors)

A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bipolar cloud-to-ground lightning flash observations

Science.gov (United States)

Saba, Marcelo M. F.; Schumann, Carina; Warner, Tom A.; Helsdon, John H.; Schulz, Wolfgang; Orville, Richard E.

2013-10-01

lightning is usually defined as a lightning flash where the current waveform exhibits a polarity reversal. There are very few reported cases of cloud-to-ground (CG) bipolar flashes using only one channel in the literature. Reports on this type of bipolar flashes are not common due to the fact that in order to confirm that currents of both polarities follow the same channel to the ground, one necessarily needs video records. This study presents five clear observations of single-channel bipolar CG flashes. High-speed video and electric field measurement observations are used and analyzed. Based on the video images obtained and based on previous observations of positive CG flashes with high-speed cameras, we suggest that positive leader branches which do not participate in the initial return stroke of a positive cloud-to-ground flash later generate recoil leaders whose negative ends, upon reaching the branch point, traverse the return stroke channel path to the ground resulting in a subsequent return stroke of opposite polarity.

What if quality of damage data is poor: an Entity-Vulnerability approach for flood vulnerability assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Naso, Susanna; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjević, Slobodan; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2015-04-01

The classical approach to flood defence, aimed at reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been substituted by flood risk management approach which accepts the idea of coping with floods and aims at reducing not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. On 22 November 2011, an exceptional rainstorm hit the Longano catchment (North-East part of Sicily, Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The flash flood involved property, buildings, roads and more than 100 commercial estates have suffered severe damages. Some days after the event, the municipality provided people forms to describe the damages that occurred on their properties. Unfortunately, the lack of common guidelines in compiling them, their coarseness and the impossibility to have monetary information on them (such us damage data from previous events), did not allow the implementation of a detailed damage analysis. What we're developing in this work is a method for a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on vulnerability curves for structures and classes of entities at risk. The difficulty in deriving the vulnerability curves for different building typologies, as function of the water depth, was due to the lack of quantitative information both on damages caused by previous events and on buildings' value. To solve the problem we submitted a questionnaire to a team of experts asking for an estimation of building damages to different hypothetical inundation depths. What we wanted to obtain was deriving the vulnerability data from technicians' experience, believing in the fundamental importance of the collaboration among research and professional engineers. Through the elaboration and the synthesis of the experts' estimations we derived the vulnerability curves for different building typologies and

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy

Modelling and mitigation of Flash Crashes

OpenAIRE

Fry, John; Serbera, Jean-Philippe

2017-01-01

The algorithmic trading revolution has had a dramatic effect upon markets. Trading has become faster, and in some ways more efficient, though potentially at the cost higher volatility and increased uncertainty. Stories of predatory trading and flash crashes constitute a new financial reality. Worryingly, highly capitalised stocks may be particularly vulnerable to flash crashes. Amid fears of high-risk technology failures in the global financial system we develop a model for flash crashes....

Electro-optical muzzle flash detection

Science.gov (United States)

Krieg, Jürgen; Eisele, Christian; Seiffer, Dirk

2016-10-01

Localizing a shooter in a complex scenario is a difficult task. Acoustic sensors can be used to detect blast waves. Radar technology permits detection of the projectile. A third method is to detect the muzzle flash using electro-optical devices. Detection of muzzle flash events is possible with focal plane arrays, line and single element detectors. In this paper, we will show that the detection of a muzzle flash works well in the shortwave infrared spectral range. Important for the acceptance of an operational warning system in daily use is a very low false alarm rate. Using data from a detector with a high sampling rate the temporal signature of a potential muzzle flash event can be analyzed and the false alarm rate can be reduced. Another important issue is the realization of an omnidirectional view required on an operational level. It will be shown that a combination of single element detectors and simple optics in an appropriate configuration is a capable solution.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FLASH POINTS OF SOME BINARY ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

B. S. Chandravanshi

Miscellaneous binary blends containing solvent neutral-150 (SN-150), ... viscosity, the flash point test has always been a standard part of a lubricant's specification. ... between structure and flash points of organic compounds [5-12] and fuels [13, 14]. ... in binary mixtures, the gaps between flash points would be high enough.

Jökulhlaup deposits in proglacial areas

Science.gov (United States)

Maizels, Judith

This paper discusses the main causes and characteristics of jökulhlaup ('glacier burst') floods, and explores the extent to which they generate depositional landform and sediment assemblages that are distinct from those of 'normal', braided river outwash ('Type I' outwash). Two main jökulhlaup outwash environments are identified: Type II outwash, produced by sudden drainage of ice-dammed lakes; and Type III, associated with drainage during subglacial geothermal activity, and distinguished by deposits resulting from high sediment concentrations and hyperconcentrated flows. In fluid flows, especially ones yielding Type II outwash, the most common deposits are large-scale expansion bars (and locally, eddy and pendant bars), and 'mega-ripples' or dunes, both forms normally composed of large-scale gravel-cobble cross-bedding, often capped by an imbricated boulder lag (a 'Type B2' lithofacies sequence). The armour is absent only where runoff decreased too rapidly to allow surface winnowing. Other jökulhlaup facies include extensive boulder beds (Type C), inverse-normally graded cobble beds (Type DS), ice-proximal debris flow deposits and deformed bedding containing diamicton clasts (Types G and H), and slack-water sediments (Type A). Type III outwash is dominated by massive, homogeneous, flood surge granules, underlain by pre-surge gravels, and capped by post-surge fluid bedforms, reflecting deposition during both the rising and falling limbs of the flood hydrograph (Type E4). The paper demonstrates that jökulhlaups do generate distinctive assemblages of depositional landforms and sediments, and concludes with a model of the dominant lithofacies sequences and associated landforms in proglacial environments subject to jökulhlaup drainage.

Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

2010-12-01

Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

Tropical storm Irene flood of August 2011 in northwestern Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Bent, Gardner C.; Olson, Scott A.; Massey, Andrew J.

2016-09-02

A Presidential disaster was declared in northwestern Massachusetts, following flooding from tropical storm Irene on August 28, 2011. During the storm, 3 to 10 inches of rain fell on soils that were susceptible to flash flooding because of wet antecedent conditions. The gage height at one U.S. Geological Survey streamgage rose nearly 20 feet in less than 4 hours because of the combination of saturated soils and intense rainfall. On August 28, 2011, in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins in northwestern Massachusetts, new peaks of record were set at six of eight U.S. Geological Survey long-term streamgages with 46 to 100 years of record. Additionally, high-water marks were surveyed and indirect measurements of peak discharge were calculated at two discontinued streamgages in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins with 24 and 61 years of record, respectively. This data resulted in new historic peaks of record at the two discontinued streamgages from tropical storm Irene.

Peak discharge of a Pleistocene lava-dam outburst flood in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, Cassandra R.; Webb, Robert H.; Cerling, Thure E.

2006-03-01

The failure of a lava dam 165,000 yr ago produced the largest known flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The Hyaloclastite Dam was up to 366 m high, and geochemical evidence linked this structure to outburst-flood deposits that occurred for 32 km downstream. Using the Hyaloclastite outburst-flood deposits as paleostage indicators, we used dam-failure and unsteady flow modeling to estimate a peak discharge and flow hydrograph. Failure of the Hyaloclastite Dam released a maximum 11 × 10 9 m 3 of water in 31 h. Peak discharges, estimated from uncertainty in channel geometry, dam height, and hydraulic characteristics, ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 × 10 5 m 3 s -1 for the Hyaloclastite outburst flood. This discharge is an order of magnitude greater than the largest known discharge on the Colorado River (1.4 × 10 4 m 3 s -1) and the largest peak discharge resulting from failure of a constructed dam in the USA (6.5 × 10 4 m 3 s -1). Moreover, the Hyaloclastite outburst flood is the oldest documented Quaternary flood and one of the largest to have occurred in the continental USA. The peak discharge for this flood ranks in the top 30 floods (>10 5 m 3 s -1) known worldwide and in the top ten largest floods in North America.

Flash-lamp-crystallized polycrystalline silicon films with high hydrogen concentration formed from Cat-CVD a-Si films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohdaira, Keisuke; Tomura, Naohito; Ishii, Shohei; Matsumura, Hideki

2011-01-01

We investigate residual forms of hydrogen (H) atoms such as bonding configuration in poly-crystalline silicon (poly-Si) films formed by the flash-lamp-induced crystallization of catalytic chemical vapor deposited (Cat-CVD) a-Si films. Raman spectroscopy reveals that at least part of H atoms in flash-lamp-crystallized (FLC) poly-Si films form Si-H 2 bonds as well as Si-H bonds with Si atoms even using Si-H-rich Cat-CVD a-Si films, which indicates the rearrangement of H atoms during crystallization. The peak desorption temperature during thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS) is as high as 900 o C, similar to the reported value for bulk poly-Si.

Flash x-ray

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Q.; Pellinen, D.

1976-01-01

The complementary techniques of flash x-ray radiography (FXR) and flash x-ray diffraction (FXD) provide access to a unique domain in nondestructive materials testing. FXR is useful in studies of macroscopic properties during extremely short time intervals, and FXD, the newer technique, is used in studies of microscopic properties. Although these techniques are similar in many respects, there are some substantial differences. FXD generally requires low-voltage, line-radiation sources and extremely accurate timing; FXR is usually less demanding. Phenomena which can be profitably studied by FXR often can also be studied by FXD to permit a complete materials characterization

Variability in eddy sandbar dynamics during two decades of controlled flooding of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Schmidt, John C.

2018-01-01

Sandbars are iconic features of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, U.S.A. Following completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, sediment deficit conditions caused erosion of eddy sandbars throughout much of the 360 km study reach downstream from the dam. Controlled floods in 1996, 2004, and 2008 demonstrated that sand on the channel bed could be redistributed to higher elevations, and that floods timed to follow tributary sediment inputs would increase suspended sand concentrations during floods. Since 2012, a new management protocol has resulted in four controlled floods timed to follow large inputs of sand from a major tributary. Monitoring of 44 downstream eddy sandbars, initiated in 1990, shows that each controlled flood deposited significant amounts of sand and increased the size of subaerial sandbars. However, the magnitude of sandbar deposition varied from eddy to eddy, even over relatively short distances where main-stem suspended sediment concentrations were similar. Here, we characterize spatial and temporal trends in sandbar volume and site-scale (i.e., individual eddy) sediment storage as a function of flow, channel, and vegetation characteristics that reflect the reach-scale (i.e., kilometer-scale) hydraulic environment. We grouped the long-term monitoring sites based on geomorphic setting and used a principal component analysis (PCA) to correlate differences in sandbar behavior to changes in reach-scale geomorphic metrics. Sites in narrow reaches are less-vegetated, stage changes markedly with discharge, sandbars tend to remain dynamic, and sand storage change dominantly occurs in the eddy compared to the main channel. In wider reaches, where stage-change during floods may be half that of narrow sites, sandbars are more likely to be stabilized by vegetation, and floods tend to aggrade the vegetated sandbar surfaces. In these locations, deposition during controlled floods is more akin to floodplain sedimentation, and the elevation of sandbar

Flash CS5.5 The Missing Manual

CERN Document Server

Grover, Chris

2011-01-01

You can build everything from simple animations to full-fledged iOS and Android apps with Flash CS5.5, but learning this complex program can be difficult-unless you have this fully updated, bestselling guide. Learn how to create gorgeous Flash effects even if you have no programming experience. With Flash CS5.5: The Missing Manual, you'll move from the basics to power-user tools with ease. Learn animation basics. Discover how to turn simple ideas into stunning animations.Master Flash's tools. Learn the animation and effects tools with clear explanations and hands-on examples.Use 3D effects. R

Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

Science.gov (United States)

Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

2017-04-01

France (major spring floods in June 2016 on the Loire river tributaries and flash floods in fall 2016) will be shown and discussed. References Bourgin, F. (2014). How to assess the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling? An exploratory work on a large sample of watersheds, AgroParisTech Wang, Q. J., Shrestha, D. L., Robertson, D. E. and Pokhrel, P (2012). A log-sinh transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization. Water Resources Research, , W05514, doi:10.1029/2011WR010973

Hot Flashes amd Night Sweats (PDQ)

Science.gov (United States)

... Professionals Questions to Ask about Your Treatment Research Hot Flashes and Night Sweats (PDQ®)–Patient Version Overview ... quality of life in many patients with cancer. Hot flashes and night sweats may be side effects ...

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

Science.gov (United States)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

Flash sintering of ceramic materials

Science.gov (United States)

Dancer, C. E. J.

2016-10-01

During flash sintering, ceramic materials can sinter to high density in a matter of seconds while subjected to electric field and elevated temperature. This process, which occurs at lower furnace temperatures and in shorter times than both conventional ceramic sintering and field-assisted methods such as spark plasma sintering, has the potential to radically reduce the power consumption required for the densification of ceramic materials. This paper reviews the experimental work on flash sintering methods carried out to date, and compares the properties of the materials obtained to those produced by conventional sintering. The flash sintering process is described for oxides of zirconium, yttrium, aluminium, tin, zinc, and titanium; silicon and boron carbide, zirconium diboride, materials for solid oxide fuel applications, ferroelectric materials, and composite materials. While experimental observations have been made on a wide range of materials, understanding of the underlying mechanisms responsible for the onset and latter stages of flash sintering is still elusive. Elements of the proposed theories to explain the observed behaviour include extensive Joule heating throughout the material causing thermal runaway, arrested by the current limitation in the power supply, and the formation of defect avalanches which rapidly and dramatically increase the sample conductivity. Undoubtedly, the flash sintering process is affected by the electric field strength, furnace temperature and current density limit, but also by microstructural features such as the presence of second phase particles or dopants and the particle size in the starting material. While further experimental work and modelling is still required to attain a full understanding capable of predicting the success of the flash sintering process in different materials, the technique non-etheless holds great potential for exceptional control of the ceramic sintering process.

Investigated Miscible CO2 Flooding for Enhancing Oil Recovery in Wettability Altered Chalk and Sandstone Rocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tabrizy, Vahid Alipour

2012-07-01

The thesis addresses oil recovery by miscible CO2 flooding from modified sandstone and chalk rocks. Calcite mineral surface is modified with stearic acid (SA) and asphaltene, and the silicate mineral surfaces are modified with N,N-dimethyldodecylamine (NN-DMDA) and asphaltene. The stability of adsorbed polar components in presence of SO4 2- and Mg2 + ions is also investigated. Recovery from sandstone cores is consistently lower than that from chalk cores saturated with the same oil and flooded with CO2 at all miscible flooding conditions. This may be due to the larger permeability contrasts in sandstone cores, which promote the fingering phenomenon. Miscible CO2 flooding for chalk and sandstone cores with distilled water, as initial water saturation, shows also lower oil recovery than cores saturated with different ions. At higher miscible flooding conditions, higher oil recovery is obtained. However, presence of light components (such as C1 or C3) in oil reduced the recovery. Oil recovery in presence of methane (C1) is lower than that in presence of methane and propane (C1/C3). A ternary diagram was constructed in order to understand the CO2 flooding mechanism(s) at the different flooding conditions and in presence of light components. The side effect of the flooding with CO2 is the probability for asphaltene deposition. An approach based on solubility parameter in the liquid, is used to assess the risk for asphaltene deposition during CO2 miscible flooding. The light components (C1/C3) and higher flooding conditions enhanced the risk for asphaltene instability. It is also shown higher amount of asphaltene deposition in chalk cores than that in sandstone cores at similar miscibility conditions.(au)

Evaluation of Flash Bainite in 4130 Steel

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-01

Technical Report ARWSB-TR-11011 Evaluation of Flash Bainite in 4130 Steel G. Vigilante M. Hespos S. Bartolucci...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of Flash Bainite in 4130 Steel 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...need to be addressed, the Flash Bainite processing of 4130 steel demonstrates promise for applications needing a combination of high strength with

The Community – Based Flood Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR in Beringin Watershed in Semarang City

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Tiara Sartika Worowirasmi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Population growth in Semarang city is certainly increasing land demand for settlement. Limited land and weak regulation enforcement of land control trigger the land use change including the watershed area. Semarang City Spatial Plan 2011-2031 has determined Beringin as a buffer area with limited physical development allocation but the citizens utilized the watershed area for settlement. Settlement developments in the area reduce the watershed ability to catch water and river capacity due to increased sedimentation. These two reasons are the main cause of the flash flood disaster (regularly in rainy season in seven villages of Beringin watershed. The condition is exacerbated by the tidal flood occurred in two village lies in coastal. In 2012, Semarang City government developed Flood Forecasting and Warning System as one of Climate Change Adaptation Measures known as Flood Early Warning System (FEWS. One of important output of FEWS is community-based disaster risk reduction. Community participation process in the FEWS has made it possible for the community to identify disaster risk characteristics, to propose solution for reducing flood risk which is suitable to the local wisdom, to increase the community capacity and to organize one of themselves in a disaster preparedness group which run quite independently.

Flash-Aware Page Replacement Algorithm

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Guangxia Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the limited main memory resource of consumer electronics equipped with NAND flash memory as storage device, an efficient page replacement algorithm called FAPRA is proposed for NAND flash memory in the light of its inherent characteristics. FAPRA introduces an efficient victim page selection scheme taking into account the benefit-to-cost ratio for evicting each victim page candidate and the combined recency and frequency value, as well as the erase count of the block to which each page belongs. Since the dirty victim page often contains clean data that exist in both the main memory and the NAND flash memory based storage device, FAPRA only writes the dirty data within the victim page back to the NAND flash memory based storage device in order to reduce the redundant write operations. We conduct a series of trace-driven simulations and experimental results show that our proposed FAPRA algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of page hit ratio, the number of write operations, runtime, and the degree of wear leveling.

Physiologically assessed hot flashes and endothelial function among midlife women.

Science.gov (United States)

Thurston, Rebecca C; Chang, Yuefang; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma; Jennings, J Richard; von Känel, Roland; Landsittel, Doug P; Matthews, Karen A

2017-08-01

Hot flashes are experienced by most midlife women. Emerging data indicate that they may be associated with endothelial dysfunction. No studies have tested whether hot flashes are associated with endothelial function using physiologic measures of hot flashes. We tested whether physiologically assessed hot flashes were associated with poorer endothelial function. We also considered whether age modified associations. Two hundred seventy-two nonsmoking women reporting either daily hot flashes or no hot flashes, aged 40 to 60 years, and free of clinical cardiovascular disease, underwent ambulatory physiologic hot flash and diary hot flash monitoring; a blood draw; and ultrasound measurement of brachial artery flow-mediated dilation to assess endothelial function. Associations between hot flashes and flow-mediated dilation were tested in linear regression models controlling for lumen diameter, demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and estradiol. In multivariable models incorporating cardiovascular disease risk factors, significant interactions by age (P hot flashes (beta [standard error] = -2.07 [0.79], P = 0.01), and more frequent physiologic hot flashes (for each hot flash: beta [standard error] = -0.10 [0.05], P = 0.03, multivariable) were associated with lower flow-mediated dilation. Associations were not accounted for by estradiol. Associations were not observed among the older women (age 54-60 years) or for self-reported hot flash frequency, severity, or bother. Among the younger women, hot flashes explained more variance in flow-mediated dilation than standard cardiovascular disease risk factors or estradiol. Among younger midlife women, frequent hot flashes were associated with poorer endothelial function and may provide information about women's vascular status beyond cardiovascular disease risk factors and estradiol.