Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit; Maqua, Michael; Wattrelos, Didier

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

Spatial and temporal patterns of bank failure during extreme flood events: Evidence of nonlinearity and self-organised criticality at the basin scale?

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J. C.; Grove, J. R.

2012-04-01

Non-linearity in physical systems provides a conceptual framework to explain complex patterns and form that are derived from complex internal dynamics rather than external forcings, and can be used to inform modeling and improve landscape management. One process that has been investigated previously to explore the existence of self-organised critical system (SOC) in river systems at the basin-scale is bank failure. Spatial trends in bank failure have been previously quantified to determine if the distribution of bank failures at the basin scale exhibit the necessary power law magnitude/frequency distributions. More commonly bank failures are investigated at a small-scale using several cross-sections with strong emphasis on local-scale factors such as bank height, cohesion and hydraulic properties. Advancing our understanding of non-linearity in such processes, however, requires many more studies where both the spatial and temporal measurements of the process can be used to investigate the existence or otherwise of non-linearity and self-organised criticality. This study presents measurements of bank failure throughout the Lockyer catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia, which experienced an extreme flood event in January 2011 resulting in the loss of human lives and geomorphic channel change. The most dominant form of fluvial adjustment consisted of changes in channel geometry and notably widespread bank failures, which were readily identifiable as 'scalloped' shaped failure scarps. The spatial extents of these were mapped using high-resolution LiDAR derived digital elevation model and were verified by field surveys and air photos. Pre-flood event LiDAR coverage for the catchment also existed allowing direct comparison of the magnitude and frequency of bank failures from both pre and post-flood time periods. Data were collected and analysed within a GIS framework and investigated for power-law relationships. Bank failures appeared random and occurred

Top-down and bottom-up definitions of human failure events in human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald Laurids

2014-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question is crucial, however, as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PRAs tend to be top-down - defined as a subset of the PRA - whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) often tend to be bottom-up - derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

Reliability of piping system components. Volume 4: The pipe failure event database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nyman, R; Erixon, S [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Tomic, B [ENCONET Consulting GmbH, Vienna (Austria); Lydell, B [RSA Technologies, Visat, CA (United States)

1996-07-01

Available public and proprietary databases on piping system failures were searched for relevant information. Using a relational database to identify groupings of piping failure modes and failure mechanisms, together with insights from published PSAs, the project team determined why, how and where piping systems fail. This report represents a compendium of technical issues important to the analysis of pipe failure events, and statistical estimation of failure rates. Inadequacies of traditional PSA methodology are addressed, with directions for PSA methodology enhancements. A `data driven and systems oriented` analysis approach is proposed to enable assignment of unique identities to risk-significant piping system component failure. Sufficient operating experience does exist to generate quality data on piping failures. Passive component failures should be addressed by today`s PSAs to allow for aging analysis and effective, on-line risk management. 42 refs, 25 figs.

Reliability of piping system components. Volume 4: The pipe failure event database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyman, R.; Erixon, S.; Tomic, B.; Lydell, B.

1996-07-01

Available public and proprietary databases on piping system failures were searched for relevant information. Using a relational database to identify groupings of piping failure modes and failure mechanisms, together with insights from published PSAs, the project team determined why, how and where piping systems fail. This report represents a compendium of technical issues important to the analysis of pipe failure events, and statistical estimation of failure rates. Inadequacies of traditional PSA methodology are addressed, with directions for PSA methodology enhancements. A 'data driven and systems oriented' analysis approach is proposed to enable assignment of unique identities to risk-significant piping system component failure. Sufficient operating experience does exist to generate quality data on piping failures. Passive component failures should be addressed by today's PSAs to allow for aging analysis and effective, on-line risk management. 42 refs, 25 figs

Detecting failure events in buildings: a numerical and experimental analysis

OpenAIRE

Heckman, V. M.; Kohler, M. D.; Heaton, T. H.

2010-01-01

A numerical method is used to investigate an approach for detecting the brittle fracture of welds associated with beam -column connections in instrumented buildings in real time through the use of time-reversed Green’s functions and wave propagation reciprocity. The approach makes use of a prerecorded catalog of Green’s functions for an instrumented building to detect failure events in the building during a later seismic event by screening continuous data for the presence of wavef...

One Size Does Not Fit All: Human Failure Event Decomposition and Task Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ronald Laurids Boring, PhD

2014-09-01

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered or exacerbated by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications. In this paper, I first review top-down and bottom-up approaches for defining HFEs and then present a seven-step guideline to ensure a task analysis completed as part of human error identification decomposes to a level suitable for use as HFEs. This guideline illustrates an effective way to bridge the bottom-up approach with top-down requirements.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (Pcontrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and

The antioxidant acetylcysteine reduces cardiovascular events in patients with end-stage renal failure: a randomized, controlled trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepel, Martin; van der Giet, Markus; Statz, Mario

2003-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal failure have increased oxidative stress and show elevated cardiovascular mortality. Whether increased cardiovascular events can be prevented by the administration of antioxidants is unknown.......Patients with end-stage renal failure have increased oxidative stress and show elevated cardiovascular mortality. Whether increased cardiovascular events can be prevented by the administration of antioxidants is unknown....

Heart Failure: Diagnosis, Severity Estimation and Prediction of Adverse Events Through Machine Learning Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evanthia E. Tripoliti

Full Text Available Heart failure is a serious condition with high prevalence (about 2% in the adult population in developed countries, and more than 8% in patients older than 75 years. About 3–5% of hospital admissions are linked with heart failure incidents. Heart failure is the first cause of admission by healthcare professionals in their clinical practice. The costs are very high, reaching up to 2% of the total health costs in the developed countries. Building an effective disease management strategy requires analysis of large amount of data, early detection of the disease, assessment of the severity and early prediction of adverse events. This will inhibit the progression of the disease, will improve the quality of life of the patients and will reduce the associated medical costs. Toward this direction machine learning techniques have been employed. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-the-art of the machine learning methodologies applied for the assessment of heart failure. More specifically, models predicting the presence, estimating the subtype, assessing the severity of heart failure and predicting the presence of adverse events, such as destabilizations, re-hospitalizations, and mortality are presented. According to the authors' knowledge, it is the first time that such a comprehensive review, focusing on all aspects of the management of heart failure, is presented. Keywords: Heart failure, Diagnosis, Prediction, Severity estimation, Classification, Data mining

Non-selective beta-blockers decrease thrombotic events in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Peuter, Olav R.; Souverein, Patrick C.; Klungel, Olaf H.; Lip, Gregory Y.; Buller, Harry R.; De Boer, Anthonius; Kamphuisen, Pieter W.

2010-01-01

Background: Beta-blockers are often prescribed to patients with heart failure (HF) without distinctions between types of beta-blockers. The 2002 COMET study showed superiority of carvedilol (a non-selective beta-blocker) over metoprolol (selective beta-blocker) on mortality and cardiovascular events

A theoretical derivation of the Hoek–Brown failure criterion for rock materials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianping Zuo

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This study uses a three-dimensional crack model to theoretically derive the Hoek–Brown rock failure criterion based on the linear elastic fracture theory. Specifically, we argue that a failure characteristic factor needs to exceed a critical value when macro-failure occurs. This factor is a product of the micro-failure orientation angle (characterizing the density and orientation of damaged micro-cracks and the changing rate of the angle with respect to the major principal stress (characterizing the microscopic stability of damaged cracks. We further demonstrate that the factor mathematically leads to the empirical Hoek–Brown rock failure criterion. Thus, the proposed factor is able to successfully relate the evolution of microscopic damaged crack characteristics to macro-failure. Based on this theoretical development, we also propose a quantitative relationship between the brittle–ductile transition point and confining pressure, which is consistent with experimental observations.

ICDE project report: collection and analysis of common-cause failure of check valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theiss, Klaus; Hessel, Philippe; Werner, Wolfgang

2003-05-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of Common Cause Failure (CCF) events of Check Valves (CVs). The events studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database. Organizations from Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States contributed with data to this data exchange. This study examines 94 CCF events of CVs reported in the ICDE database by tabulating the data and observing trends. The database contains general information about event attributes like root cause, coupling factor, detection method and corrective action taken. As part of this study, most of these events were reviewed in more detail and characterized by failure cause and failure symptom categories. The study itself begins with an overview of the entire data set in chapter 5. Charts are provided for each of the above-mentioned event attributes. This chapter forms the baseline for chapter 6. The intention of chapter 6 is to give the reader a deeper qualitative insight in the database content beyond that obtained from using the event coding only. Chapter 7 contains the summary of the study results and the conclusions derived from. Approximately 8% of all ICDE events of CVs were complete CCFs (all redundant components had failed). The number of partial CCF events (at least two of the redundant components failed) accounted for 24%. In the remaining 68% of the ICDE events, less than two components had failed completely, and the other components of the observed group only suffered from small defects, incipient degradation or were not affected at all. However, it was found that for more than 75% of the ICDE events the causal factors had a high probability to be shared by all the redundant components. 88 of the 94 reported ICDE events were reviewed in some more detail in Section 6 of this report with respect to failure causes, failure symptoms and failure mechanism. All events classified with a low 'shared cause factor

Failure mode analysis using state variables derived from fault trees with application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartholomew, R.J.

1982-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is used extensively to assess both the qualitative and quantitative reliability of engineered nuclear power systems employing many subsystems and components. FTA is very useful, but the method is limited by its inability to account for failure mode rate-of-change interdependencies (coupling) of statistically independent failure modes. The state variable approach (using FTA-derived failure modes as states) overcomes these difficulties and is applied to the determination of the lifetime distribution function for a heat pipe-thermoelectric nuclear power subsystem. Analyses are made using both Monte Carlo and deterministic methods and compared with a Markov model of the same subsystem

On a Stochastic Failure Model under Random Shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Cha, Ji Hwan

2013-02-01

In most conventional settings, the events caused by an external shock are initiated at the moments of its occurrence. In this paper, we study a new classes of shock model, where each shock from a nonhomogeneous Poisson processes can trigger a failure of a system not immediately, as in classical extreme shock models, but with delay of some random time. We derive the corresponding survival and failure rate functions. Furthermore, we study the limiting behaviour of the failure rate function where it is applicable.

Aspirin Does Not Increase Heart Failure Events in Heart Failure Patients: From the WARCEF Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Teerlink, John R; Qian, Min; Bello, Natalie A; Freudenberger, Ronald S; Levin, Bruce; Di Tullio, Marco R; Graham, Susan; Mann, Douglas L; Sacco, Ralph L; Mohr, J P; Lip, Gregory Y H; Labovitz, Arthur J; Lee, Seitetz C; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lok, Dirk J; Anker, Stefan D; Thompson, John L P; Homma, Shunichi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether aspirin increases heart failure (HF) hospitalization or death in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB). Because of its cyclooxygenase inhibiting properties, aspirin has been postulated to increase HF events in patients treated with ACE inhibitors or ARBs. However, no large randomized trial has addressed the clinical relevance of this issue. We compared aspirin and warfarin for HF events (hospitalization, death, or both) in the 2,305 patients enrolled in the WARCEF (Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction) trial (98.6% on ACE inhibitor or ARB treatment), using conventional Cox models for time to first event (489 events). In addition, to examine multiple HF hospitalizations, we used 2 extended Cox models, a conditional model and a total time marginal model, in time to recurrent event analyses (1,078 events). After adjustment for baseline covariates, aspirin- and warfarin-treated patients did not differ in time to first HF event (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 1.04; p = 0.117) or first hospitalization alone (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 1.06; p = 0.168). The extended Cox models also found no significant differences in all HF events or in HF hospitalizations alone after adjustment for covariates. Among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the WARCEF trial, there was no significant difference in risk of HF events between the aspirin and warfarin-treated patients. (Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial [WARCEF]; NCT00041938). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. All rights reserved.

Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

2014-01-01

This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

Symptom-Hemodynamic Mismatch and Heart Failure Event Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christopher S.; Hiatt, Shirin O.; Denfeld, Quin E.; Mudd, James O.; Chien, Christopher; Gelow, Jill M.

2014-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous condition of both symptoms and hemodynamics. Objective The goal of this study was to identify distinct profiles among integrated data on physical and psychological symptoms and hemodynamics, and quantify differences in 180-day event-risk among observed profiles. Methods A secondary analysis of data collected during two prospective cohort studies by a single group of investigators was performed. Latent class mixture modeling was used to identify distinct symptom-hemodynamic profiles. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to quantify difference in event-risk (HF emergency visit, hospitalization or death) among profiles. Results The mean age (n=291) was 57±13 years, 38% were female, and 61% had class III/IV HF. Three distinct symptom-hemodynamic profiles were identified. 17.9% of patients had concordant symptoms and hemodynamics (i.e. moderate physical and psychological symptoms matched the comparatively hemodynamic profile), 17.9% had severe symptoms and average hemodynamics, and 64.2% had poor hemodynamics and mild symptoms. Compared to those in the concordant profile, both profiles of symptom-hemodynamic mismatch were associated with a markedly increased event-risk (severe symptoms hazards ratio = 3.38, p=0.033; poor hemodynamics hazards ratio = 3.48, p=0.016). Conclusions A minority of adults with HF have concordant symptoms and hemodynamics. Either profile of symptom-hemodynamic mismatch in HF is associated with a greater risk of healthcare utilization for HF or death. PMID:24988323

ICDE project report: collection and analysis of common-cause failures of batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-12-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of Common Cause Failure (CCF) events of batteries (BT). the events studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database, with contributions from organizations from several countries. 50 events in the ICDE database were studied by tabulating the data and observing the trends. The data span a period from 1980 through 2000. The database contains general information about event attributes such as root cause, coupling factor, common cause component group (CCCG) size, and corrective action. The objective of the report was also to develop the failure mechanisms and phenomena involved in the events, their relationship to the root causes, and possibilities for improvement

Evaluation of common mode failure of safety functions for limiting fault events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezendes, J.P.; Hyde, A.W.

2004-01-01

The draft U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) policy on digital protection system software requires all Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) to be evaluated assuming a hypothetical common mode failure (CMF) which incapacitates the normal automatic initiation of safety functions. The System 80 + ALWR has been evaluated for such hypothetical conditions. The results show that the diverse automatic and manual protective systems in System 80 + provide ample safety performance margins relative to core coolability, offsite radiological releases. Reactor Coolant System (RCS) pressurization and containment integrity. This deterministic evaluation served to quantify the significant inherent safety margins in the System 80 + Standard Plant design even in the event of this extremely low probability scenario of a common mode failure. (author)

Medical costs in patients with heart failure after acute heart failure events: one-year follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eugene; Kwon, Hye-Young; Baek, Sang Hong; Lee, Haeyoung; Yoo, Byung-Su; Kang, Seok-Min; Ahn, Youngkeun; Yang, Bong-Min

2018-03-01

This study investigated annual medical costs using real-world data focusing on acute heart failure. The data were retrospectively collected from six tertiary hospitals in South Korea. Overall, 330 patients who were hospitalized for acute heart failure between January 2011 and July 2012 were selected. Data were collected on their follow-up medical visits for 1 year, including medical costs incurred toward treatment. Those who died within the observational period or who had no records of follow-up visits were excluded. Annual per patient medical costs were estimated according to the type of medical services, and factors contributing to the costs using Gamma Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with log link were analyzed. On average, total annual medical costs for each patient were USD 6,199 (±9,675), with hospitalization accounting for 95% of the total expenses. Hospitalization cost USD 5,904 (±9,666) per patient. Those who are re-admitted have 88.5% higher medical expenditure than those who have not been re-admitted in 1 year, and patients using intensive care units have 19.6% higher expenditure than those who do not. When the number of hospital days increased by 1 day, medical expenses increased by 6.7%. Outpatient drug costs were not included. There is a possibility that medical expenses for AHF may have been under-estimated. It was found that hospitalization resulted in substantial costs for treatment of heart failure in South Korea, especially in patients with an acute heart failure event. Prevention strategies and appropriate management programs that would reduce both frequency of hospitalization and length of stay for patients with the underlying risk of heart failure are needed.

Common cause failures of reactor pressure components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.

1978-01-01

The common cause failure is defined as a multiple failure event due to a common cause. The existence of common failure causes may ruin the potential advantages of applying redundancy for reliability improvement. Examples relevant to large mechanical components are presented. Preventive measures against common cause failures, such as physical separation, equipment diversity, quality assurance, and feedback from experience are discussed. Despite the large number of potential interdependencies, the analysis of common cause failures can be done within the framework of conventional reliability analysis, utilizing, for example, the method of deriving minimal cut sets from a system fault tree. Tools for the description and evaluation of dependencies between components are discussed: these include the model of conditional failure causes that are common to many components, and evaluation of the reliability of redundant components subjected to a common load. (author)

Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Main, I.; Naylor, M.

2012-05-01

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

Cryopreserved Off-the-Shelf Allogeneic Adipose-Derived Stromal Cells for Therapy in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease and Heart Failure-A Safety Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kastrup, Jens; Haack-Sørensen, Mandana; Juhl, Morten

2017-01-01

and ischemic heart failure (IHF). Batches of CSCC_ASC were isolated from three healthy donors by liposuction from abdominal adipose tissue. Adipose mesenchymal stromal cells were culture expanded in bioreactors without the use of animal constituents, cryopreserved, and stored in vials in nitrogen dry......The present first-in-human clinical trial evaluated the safety and feasibility of a newly developed and cryopreserved Cardiology Stem Cell Centre adipose-derived stromal cell (CSCC_ASC) product from healthy donors for intramyocardial injection in ten patients with ischemic heart disease......-storage containers until use. Direct injection of CSCC_ASC into the myocardium did not cause any complications or serious adverse events related to either treatment or cell administration in a 6-month follow-up period. Four out of ten heart failure patients developed donor-specific de novo human leukocyte antigen...

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from 20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrieval system for emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) in salt bed depository: accident event analysis and mechanical failure probabilities. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhaskaran, G.; McCleery, J.E.

1979-10-01

This report provides support in developing an accident prediction event tree diagram, with an analysis of the baseline design concept for the retrieval of emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) contained in a degraded Canister. The report contains an evaluation check list, accident logic diagrams, accident event tables, fault trees/event trees and discussions of failure probabilities for the following subsystems as potential contributors to a failure: (a) Canister extraction, including the core and ram units; (b) Canister transfer at the hoist area; and (c) Canister hoisting. This report is the second volume of a series. It continues and expands upon the report Retrieval System for Emplaced Spent Unreprocessed Fuel (SURF) in Salt Bed Depository: Baseline Concept Criteria Specifications and Mechanical Failure Probabilities. This report draws upon the baseline conceptual specifications contained in the first report

Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cell treatment in patients with severe ischaemic heart failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathiasen, Anders Bruun; Qayyum, Abbas Ali; Jørgensen, Erik

2015-01-01

AIMS: Regenerative treatment with mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) has been promising in patients with ischaemic heart failure but needs confirmation in larger randomized trials. We aimed to study effects of intra-myocardial autologous bone marrow-derived MSC treatment in patients with severe isc...... identified. CONCLUSION: Intra-myocardial injections of autologous culture expanded MSCs were safe and improved myocardial function in patients with severe ischaemic heart failure. STUDY REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00644410 (ClinicalTrials.gov)....... ischaemic heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: The MSC-HF trial is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients were randomized 2 : 1 to intra-myocardial injections of MSC or placebo, respectively. The primary endpoint was change in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV), measured...

Derivation of Event-B Models from OWL Ontologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alkhammash Eman H.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The derivation of formal specifications from large and complex requirements is a key challenge in systems engineering. In this paper we present an approach that aims to address this challenge by building formal models from OWL ontologies. An ontology is used in the field of knowledge representation to capture a clear view of the domain and to produce a concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements. We harness the power of ontologies to handle inconsistency of domain requirements and produce clear, concise and unambiguous set of domain requirements for Event-B modelling. The proposed approach works by generating Attempto Controlled English (ACE from the OWL ontology and then maps the ACE requirements to develop Event-B models. ACE is a subset of English that can be unambiguously translated into first-order logic. There is an injective mapping between OWL ontology and a subset of ACE. ACE is a suitable interlingua for producing the mapping between OWL and Event-B models for many reasons. Firstly, ACE is easy to learn and understand, it hides the math of OWL and would be natural to use by everybody. Secondly ACE has a parser that converts ACE texts into Discourse Representation Structures (DRS. Finally, ACE can be extended to target a richer syntactic subset of Event-B which ultimately would facilitate the translation of ACE requirements to Event-B.

Reactor pressure vessel failure probability following through-wall cracks due to pressurized thermal shock events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonen, F.A.; Garnich, M.R.; Simonen, E.P.; Bian, S.H.; Nomura, K.K.; Anderson, W.E.; Pedersen, L.T.

1986-04-01

A fracture mechanics model was developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to predict the behavior of a reactor pressure vessel following a through-wall crack that occurs during a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) event. This study, which contributed to a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) program to study PTS risk, was coordinated with the Integrated Pressurized Thermal Shock (IPTS) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The PNL fracture mechanics model uses the critical transients and probabilities of through-wall cracks from the IPTS Program. The PNL model predicts the arrest, reinitiation, and direction of crack growth for a postulated through-wall crack and thereby predicts the mode of vessel failure. A Monte-Carlo type of computer code was written to predict the probabilities of the alternative failure modes. This code treats the fracture mechanics properties of the various welds and plates of a vessel as random variables. Plant-specific calculations were performed for the Oconee-1, Calvert Cliffs-1, and H.B. Robinson-2 reactor pressure vessels for the conditions of postulated transients. The model predicted that 50% or more of the through-wall axial cracks will turn to follow a circumferential weld. The predicted failure mode is a complete circumferential fracture of the vessel, which results in a potential vertically directed missile consisting of the upper head assembly. Missile arrest calculations for the three nuclear plants predict that such vertical missiles, as well as all potential horizontally directed fragmentation type missiles, will be confined to the vessel enclosre cavity. The PNL failure mode model is recommended for use in future evaluations of other plants, to determine the failure modes that are most probable for postulated PTS events

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, B.

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood

A mid-layer model for human reliability analysis: understanding the cognitive causes of human failure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Song-Hua; Chang, James Y.H.; Boring, Ronald L.; Whaley, April M.; Lois, Erasmia; Langfitt Hendrickson, Stacey M.; Oxstrand, Johanna H.; Forester, John Alan; Kelly, Dana L.; Mosleh, Ali

2010-01-01

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) at the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method's middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.

A Mid-Layer Model for Human Reliability Analysis: Understanding the Cognitive Causes of Human Failure Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; April M. Whaley; Ronald L. Boring; James Y. H. Chang; Song-Hua Shen; Ali Mosleh; Johanna H. Oxstrand; John A. Forester; Dana L. Kelly; Erasmia L. Lois

2010-06-01

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method’s middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.

Sacubitril and valsartan fixed combination to reduce heart failure events in post-acute myocardial infarction patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaid Iskandar, M; Lang, C C

2017-10-01

Heart failure is a term used to define a constellation of symptoms and signs that are commonly attributed to the inability of the heart to produce a cardiac output that meets the demands of the body. It remains a deadly disease, affecting between 1-2% of the population, and is more common in the elderly, with around 6-10% of patients over 65 suffering from the condition. Sacubitril/valsartan (LCZ-696) is a combined neprilysin inhibitor and angiotensin AT1 receptor blocker approved in recent years for the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In an area where there have been limited pharmacological advances in the last 10 years, this drug was a game changer and a much welcomed addition to contemporary heart failure therapy. It is currently being studied in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and for the reduction of heart failure events post-acute myocardial infarction. Results from the ongoing PARADISE-MI study are awaited by the global cardiology community with great interest. Copyright 2017 Clarivate Analytics.

Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2018-06-01

This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, B. [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood. 7 refs, 4 tabs, 3 figs. Also available at the SKI Home page: //www.ski.se.

Data bank international of events of failure of common cause ICDE; Banco de datos internacional de sucesos de fallo de causa comum (ICDE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morales Castellanos, M. R.; Fernandez Andujar, B.; Pereira Pagan, M. B.

2013-07-01

Common Cause Failure (CCF) is a dependent event in which two or more components fail simultaneously or within a short space of time as a direct result of a shared common cause. Due to the low frequency of this type of events, some Member States of the Agency of Nuclear Energy (NEA) of the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OECD) decided to create the project International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) in order to encourage multilateral cooperation in the collection and analysis of data relating to CCF events.

Uncertainty analysis with statistically correlated failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modarres, M.; Dezfuli, H.; Roush, M.L.

1987-01-01

Likelihood of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree or sequences of an event tree is estimated from the failure probability of components that constitute the events of the fault/event tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. At present most fault tree calculations are based on uncorrelated component failure data. This chapter describes a methodology for assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees or frequency of occurrence of event tree sequences when event failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. Moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting the Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program, CORRELATE, was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. (author)

Incidence of patient safety events and process-related human failures during intra-hospital transportation of patients: retrospective exploration from the institutional incident reporting system.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shu-Hui; Jerng, Jih-Shuin; Chen, Li-Chin; Li, Yu-Tsu; Huang, Hsiao-Fang; Wu, Chao-Ling; Chan, Jing-Yuan; Huang, Szu-Fen; Liang, Huey-Wen; Sun, Jui-Sheng

2017-11-03

Intra-hospital transportation (IHT) might compromise patient safety because of different care settings and higher demand on the human operation. Reports regarding the incidence of IHT-related patient safety events and human failures remain limited. To perform a retrospective analysis of IHT-related events, human failures and unsafe acts. A hospital-wide process for the IHT and database from the incident reporting system in a medical centre in Taiwan. All eligible IHT-related patient safety events between January 2010 to December 2015 were included. Incidence rate of IHT-related patient safety events, human failure modes, and types of unsafe acts. There were 206 patient safety events in 2 009 013 IHT sessions (102.5 per 1 000 000 sessions). Most events (n=148, 71.8%) did not involve patient harm, and process events (n=146, 70.9%) were most common. Events at the location of arrival (n=101, 49.0%) were most frequent; this location accounted for 61.0% and 44.2% of events with patient harm and those without harm, respectively (pprocess step was the preparation of the transportation team (n=91, 48.9%). Contributing unsafe acts included perceptual errors (n=14, 7.5%), decision errors (n=56, 30.1%), skill-based errors (n=48, 25.8%), and non-compliance (n=68, 36.6%). Multivariate analysis showed that human failure found in the arrival and hand-off sub-process (OR 4.84, pprocess at the location of arrival and prevent errors other than omissions. Long-term monitoring of IHT-related events is also warranted. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Heart failure as an endpoint in heart failure and non-heart failure cardiovascular clinical trials: the need for a consensus definition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zannad, F.; Stough, W.G.; Pitt, B.

2008-01-01

Specific criteria have been established to define the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in cardiovascular clinical trials, but there is not a consistent definition for heart failure. Heart failure events appear to occur at a rate that is similar to stroke and MI in trials...... of hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, and coronary heart disease, yet a consistent approach to defining heart failure events has not yet been realized. The wide range of definitions used in clinical trials makes it difficult to interpret new data in the context of existing literature. This inconsistency has...... led to challenges in determining the incidence of heart failure in cardiovascular studies and the effects of interventions on these endpoints. This paper examines issues related to defining heart failure events in cardiovascular clinical trials and presents a definition to formally address this issue...

A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

2015-09-01

In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

1993-01-01

A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

A pragmatic approach to estimate alpha factors for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassija, Varun; Senthil Kumar, C.; Velusamy, K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Estimation of coefficients in alpha factor model for common cause analysis. • A derivation of plant specific alpha factors is demonstrated. • We examine sensitivity of common cause contribution to total system failure. • We compare beta factor and alpha factor models for various redundant configurations. • The use of alpha factors is preferable, especially for large redundant systems. - Abstract: Most of the modern technological systems are deployed with high redundancy but still they fail mainly on account of common cause failures (CCF). Various models such as Beta Factor, Multiple Greek Letter, Binomial Failure Rate and Alpha Factor exists for estimation of risk from common cause failures. Amongst all, alpha factor model is considered most suitable for high redundant systems as it arrives at common cause failure probabilities from a set of ratios of failures and the total component failure probability Q T . In the present study, alpha factor model is applied for the assessment of CCF of safety systems deployed at two nuclear power plants. A method to overcome the difficulties in estimation of the coefficients viz., alpha factors in the model, importance of deriving plant specific alpha factors and sensitivity of common cause contribution to the total system failure probability with respect to hazard imposed by various CCF events is highlighted. An approach described in NUREG/CR-5500 is extended in this study to provide more explicit guidance for a statistical approach to derive plant specific coefficients for CCF analysis especially for high redundant systems. The procedure is expected to aid regulators for independent safety assessment

Safety relevant failure mechanisms in the post-operational phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayer, Gerhard; Stiller, Jan Christopher; Roemer, Sarah

2017-03-01

. Finally, national and international operating experience was evaluated with the aim to derive general failure mechanisms from events that have occurred. For this purpose, the database of German reportable events (VERA), the database of the OECD/NEA ''International Common-cause Data Exchange (ICDE)'' project as well as the database of the ''International Reporting Systems for Operating Experience (IRS)'' of the IAEA was searched. As these data sources comprise a total number of about 12,000 events, initially the evaluation focused on the 309 events that occurred in plants that are in the post operation or decommissioning phase. In order to capture events from power operation whose damage phenomena have special relevance for post operation, too, attempts were made to develop automatic searches that would deliver a pre-selection of relevant results. To evaluate this method, 900 events from a German twin unit plant over a period from their construction until the present were analysed manually. It turned out that an automated search did not deliver enveloping results. All in all, 12 events from German plants in post operation or decommissioning and 36 events from plants with power operation licences as well as 6 events from international operating experience (IRS and ICDE) which showed a failure mechanism with special relevance for the post operation phase were identified. The events were presented individually, with special emphasis on the description of the failure mechanism that was particularly relevant for post operation. The failure mechanisms identified can be allocated to the following three general categories: special operating modes; changed operating or ambient conditions; organisational and personnel boundary conditions. The failure mechanisms assigned to these categories are presented in a summarized form and discussed.

Coping with adverse drug events in patients with heart failure : Exploring the role of medication beliefs and perceptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Smedt, R. H.; Jaarsma, T.; Ranchor, A. V.; van der Meer, K.; Groenier, K. H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F. M.; Denig, P.

2012-01-01

This study describes coping strategies that patients with heart failure (HF) use to manage adverse drug events (ADEs). The included coping strategies were social support seeking, information seeking, non-adherence and taking alleviating medication. The role of beliefs about medication and ADE

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

NN, NN; Mugavero, Michael J; May, Margaret

2008-01-01

, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation.......58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1......OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between...

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Mu-Young; Cho, Seungyon; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won; Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahn, Mu-Young, E-mail: myahn74@nfri.re.kr [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Cheong, D. Y.; Lee, Y. S.; Lee, M. K. [Sunmoon Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Ji Hwan [Baekseok College of Cultural studies, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of)

2001-01-15

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of containment bypass during multiple steam generator tube failure issue for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which is a part of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : the Multiple Steam Generator Tube Repture(MSGTR) event has never been occurred in the history of commercial nuclear reactor operation but single Steam Generator Tube Rupture(SGTR) event is reported to occur every two years. A probabilistic safety analysis study on MSGTR event, however, show its probability of occurrence is to be the same order as the design basis accidents such as LACA. In this regard, the ability of NPPs to cope with MSGTR event is required. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The items that should be considered in establishing regulatory requirements are summarized as follows : the analyses of MSGTR events should be performed by a best-estimate method with normal full power conditions except initial reactor power of 102%, all safety- and non-safety grade systems and components are assumed to be available only in automatic mode, tube ruptures are assumed to occur at the steam generator which is in the loop connected with a pressurizer, guillotine-type tube raptures are assumed near tube sheet on hot-leg side, the results of 1-5 tube ruptures should be compared, an appropriate break flow model should be used and critical flow model can be compared, an appropriate break flow model should be used and critical flow model can be used if needed, operator response time should be based on ANSI/ANS-51.1-1983 and ANSI/ANS-58.8-1984, acceptance criteria should be stated in terms of MSSV lift time as well as radiological consequences. It is recommended that some analyses should be carried out in order to figure out the effects of tube rupture modelling methods. A single

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-06-16

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

Apixaban: Effective and Safe in Preventing Thromboembolic Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Renal Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Francesca; Scicchitano, Pietro; Gesualdo, Michele; Ricci, Gabriella; Carbonara, Santa; Franchini, Carlo; Pia Schiavone, Brigida Immacolata; Corbo, Filomena; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

2017-11-17

Thromboembolic events, principally stroke, represent one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among subjects with atrial fibrillation. Chronic kidney disease determines a further increase of thromboembolic events, bleeding and mortality and complicates the pharmacological management of patients with atrial fibrillation, mainly due to the side effects of antiarrhythmic and anticoagulant drugs with renal excretion. Apixaban is a new oral anticoagulant characterized by good bioavailability and renal elimination accounting for only 25%, showing a safety profile and effectiveness in patients with renal impairment. In this manuscript, we reviewed literature data on the use of apixaban in the management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in patients with renal failure, in order to clarify an often-debated topic in clinical practice. A PubMed search was performed on the terms atrial fibrillation, apixaban and renal failure with the aim of identifying relevant manuscripts, large randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, and current guidelines. Literature data show that apixaban could represent an interesting alternative to warfarin and other selective antagonists of coagulation factors in patients with impaired renal function. About the risk of major bleeding, apixaban appears to be safer than warfarin in the presence of any degree of renal failure. Apixaban show to be an effective anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation, even superior to warfarin in reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism regardless of the presence of renal insufficiency. Moreover, Food and Drug Administration allows the use of apixaban in patients with end stage renal disease on hemodialysis. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Tumor-derived exosomes in cancer progression and treatment failure

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Bo; Feng, Jifeng

2015-01-01

Exosomes have diameter within the range of 30-100nm and spherical to cup-shaped nanoparticles with specific surface molecular characteristics, such as CD9 and CD63. These vesicles are present in nearly all human body fluids, including blood plasma/serum, saliva, breast milk, cerebrospinal fluid, urine, semen, and particularly enriched in tumor microenvironment. Exosomes contain multiple proteins, DNA, mRNA, miRNA, long non-coding RNA, and even genetic materials of viruses/prions. These materials are biochemically and functionally distinct and can be transferred to a recipient cell where they regulate protein expression and signaling pathways. Recently, exosomes are demonstrated to have a close relationship with tumor development and metastasis. Exosomes influence therapeutic effect in cancer patients. In this review, we describe the biogenesis, composition, and function of exosomes. The mechanism on how tumor-derived exosomes contribute to cancer progression and clinical treatment failure is also described, with special focus on their potential applications in cancer therapy. PMID:26452221

Tumor-derived exosomes in cancer progression and treatment failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Shaorong; Cao, Haixia; Shen, Bo; Feng, Jifeng

2015-11-10

Exosomes have diameter within the range of 30-100 nm and spherical to cup-shaped nanoparticles with specific surface molecular characteristics, such as CD9 and CD63. These vesicles are present in nearly all human body fluids, including blood plasma/serum, saliva, breast milk, cerebrospinal fluid, urine, semen, and particularly enriched in tumor microenvironment. Exosomes contain multiple proteins, DNA, mRNA, miRNA, long non-coding RNA, and even genetic materials of viruses/prions. These materials are biochemically and functionally distinct and can be transferred to a recipient cell where they regulate protein expression and signaling pathways. Recently, exosomes are demonstrated to have a close relationship with tumor development and metastasis. Exosomes influence therapeutic effect in cancer patients. In this review, we describe the biogenesis, composition, and function of exosomes. The mechanism on how tumor-derived exosomes contribute to cancer progression and clinical treatment failure is also described, with special focus on their potential applications in cancer therapy.

Common Cause Failure Analysis for the Digital Plant Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kagn, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung Cheol

2005-01-01

Safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants adopt the multiple-redundancy design in order to reduce the risk from the single component failure. The digitalized safety-signal generation system is also designed based on the multiple-redundancy strategy which consists of more redundant components. The level of the redundant design of digital systems is usually higher than those of conventional mechanical systems. This higher redundancy would clearly reduce the risk from the single failure of components, but raise the importance of the common cause failure (CCF) analysis. This research aims to develop the practical and realistic method for modeling the CCF in digital safety-critical systems. We propose a simple and practical framework for assessing the CCF probability of digital equipment. Higher level of redundancy causes the difficulty of CCF analysis because it results in impractically large number of CCF events in the fault tree model when we use conventional CCF modeling methods. We apply the simplified alpha-factor (SAF) method to the digital system CCF analysis. The precedent study has shown that SAF method is quite realistic but simple when we consider carefully system success criteria. The first step for using the SAF method is the analysis of target system for determining the function failure cases. That is, the success criteria of the system could be derived from the target system's function and configuration. Based on this analysis, we can calculate the probability of single CCF event which represents the CCF events resulting in the system failure. In addition to the application of SAF method, in order to accommodate the other characteristics of digital technology, we develop a simple concept and several equations for practical use

Heart Failure

OpenAIRE

McMurray, John; Ponikowski, Piotr

2011-01-01

Heart failure occurs in 3% to 4% of adults aged over 65 years, usually as a consequence of coronary artery disease or hypertension, and causes breathlessness, effort intolerance, fluid retention, and increased mortality. The 5-year mortality in people with systolic heart failure ranges from 25% to 75%, often owing to sudden death following ventricular arrhythmia. Risks of cardiovascular events are increased in people with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) or heart failure.

CRITICAL EVENTS IN CONSTRUCTION PROCESS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kirsten; Rasmussen, Grane Mikael Gregaard

2009-01-01

cause-effects of failures and defects in the construction industry by using an analytical approach (The bowtie model) which is developed in the accident research. Using this model clarifies the relationships within the chain of failures that causes critical events with undesirable consequences......Function failures, defects and poor communication are major problems in the construction industry. These failures and defects are caused by a row of critical events in the construction process. The purpose of this paper is to define “critical events” in the construction process and to investigate....... In this way the causes of failures and the relationships between various failures are rendered visible. A large construction site was observed from start to finish as the empirical element in the research. The research focuses on all kinds of critical events identified throughout every phase during...

Failure frequencies and probabilities applicable to BWR and PWR piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bush, S.H.; Chockie, A.D.

1996-03-01

This report deals with failure probabilities and failure frequencies of nuclear plant piping and the failure frequencies of flanges and bellows. Piping failure probabilities are derived from Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code calculations based on fatigue and intergranular stress corrosion as failure mechanisms. Values for both failure probabilities and failure frequencies are cited from several sources to yield a better evaluation of the spread in mean and median values as well as the widths of the uncertainty bands. A general conclusion is that the numbers from WASH-1400 often used in PRAs are unduly conservative. Failure frequencies for both leaks and large breaks tend to be higher than would be calculated using the failure probabilities, primarily because the frequencies are based on a relatively small number of operating years. Also, failure probabilities are substantially lower because of the probability distributions used in PRAISE calculations. A general conclusion is that large LOCA probability values calculated using PRAISE will be quite small, on the order of less than 1E-8 per year (<1E-8/year). The values in this report should be recognized as having inherent limitations and should be considered as estimates and not absolute values. 24 refs 24 refs

Non-selective vs. selective beta-blocker treatment and the risk of thrombo-embolic events in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Peuter, Olav R.; Souverein, Patrick C.; Klungel, Olaf H.; Büller, Harry R.; de Boer, Anthonius; Kamphuisen, Pieter W.

2011-01-01

Aims Heart failure (HF) is associated with a prothrombotic state, resulting in an increased risk for thrombo-embolic events. Studies suggest a reduced prothrombotic state when non-selective beta-blockers relative to selective beta-blockers are given. We studied the influence of non-selective

Probabilistic analysis of ''common mode failures''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easterling, R.G.

1978-01-01

Common mode failure is a topic of considerable interest in reliability and safety analyses of nuclear reactors. Common mode failures are often discussed in terms of examples: two systems fail simultaneously due to an external event such as an earthquake; two components in redundant channels fail because of a common manufacturing defect; two systems fail because a component common to both fails; the failure of one system increases the stress on other systems and they fail. The common thread running through these is a dependence of some sort--statistical or physical--among multiple failure events. However, the nature of the dependence is not the same in all these examples. An attempt is made to model situations, such as the above examples, which have been termed ''common mode failures.'' In doing so, it is found that standard probability concepts and terms, such as statistically dependent and independent events, and conditional and unconditional probabilities, suffice. Thus, it is proposed that the term ''common mode failures'' be dropped, at least from technical discussions of these problems. A corollary is that the complementary term, ''random failures,'' should also be dropped. The mathematical model presented may not cover all situations which have been termed ''common mode failures,'' but provides insight into the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the probabilities of these events

Energies of precipitating electrons during pulsating aurora events derived from ionosonde observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDougall, J.W.; Hofstee, J.; Koehler, J.A.

1981-01-01

The time-history of particle energies and fluxes associated with pulsating auroras in the morning sector is derived from ionosonde measurements. All the pulsating auroras studied showed a similar history with the pulsations occurring during a time interval of the order of an hour during which the average auroral Maxwellian characteristic energy stays relatively constant but the energy flux decreases progressively during the event. A possible explanation for this behaviour in terms of an injection of particles into a magnetospheric 'bottle' near the midnight meridian and the progressive precipitation out of the bottle during the pulsating event is suggested. (auth)

BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fussell, J.B.

1983-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

Immune mediated liver failure

OpenAIRE

Wang, Xiaojing; Ning, Qin

2014-01-01

Liver failure is a clinical syndrome of various etiologies, manifesting as jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy and circulatory dysfunction, which result in subsequent multiorgan failure. Clinically, liver failure is classified into four categories: acute, subacute, acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure. Massive hepatocyte death is considered to be the core event in the development of liver failure, which occurs when the extent of hepatocyte death is beyond the liver regenerative capac...

Effect of enhanced external counterpulsation therapy on myeloperoxidase in lowering cardiovascular events of patients with chronic heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Starry H. Rampengan

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Chronic heart failure (CHF is a slowly progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality; therefore, the management using pharmacological treatments frequently fails to improve outcome. Enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP, a non-invasive treatment, may serve as alternative treatment for heart failure. This study was aimed to evaluate the influence of EECP on myeloperoxidase (MPO as inflammatory marker as well as cardiac events outcome.Methods: This was an open randomized controlled clinical trial on 66 CHF patients visiting several cardiovascular clinics in Manado between January-December 2012. The subjects were randomly divided into two groups, i.e. the group who receive EECP therapy and those who did not receive EECP therapy with 33 patients in each group. Myeloperoxidase (MPO as inflammatory marker was examined at baseline and after 6 months of observation. Cardiovascular events were observed as well after 6 months of observation. Unpaired t-test was use to analyze the difference of MPO between the two groups, and chi-square followed by calculation of relative risk were used for estimation of cardiovascular event outcomes.Results: MPO measurement at baseline and after 6 months in EECP group were 643.16 ± 239.40 pM and 422.31 ± 156.26 pM, respectively (p < 0.001. Whereas in non EECP group, the MPO values were 584.69 ± 281.40 pM and 517.64 ± 189.68 pM, repectively (p = 0.792. MPO reduction was observed in all patients of EECP group and in 13 patients (48% of non-EECP group (p < 0.001. Cardiovascular events were observed in 7 (21.21% and 15 (45.45% of patients in EECP and non-EECP groups, respectively (p = 0.037.Conclusion: EECP therapy significantly decreased the level of MPO as inflammatory marker and this decrease was correlated with the reduction of cardiovascular events in CHF patients. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:152-60. doi: 10.13181/mji.v22i3.584Keywords: CHF, cardiovascular events, EECP, myeloperoxidase

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mugavero, Michael J; May, Margaret; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael S; Costagliola, Dominique; Egger, Matthias; Phillips, Andrew; Günthard, Huldrych F; Dabis, Francois; Hogg, Robert; de Wolf, Frank; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Gill, M John; Justice, Amy; D'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Lampe, Fiona; Miró, Jose M; Staszewski, Schlomo; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Niesters, Bert

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between

Occurrences in control room equipment, procedures and personnel performances: IRS control room events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tolstykh, V.

1994-01-01

The IAEA/NEA Incident Reporting System (IRS) was established in the early 1980, its objective being to gain from operating experience achieved in countries with nuclear power programmes by means of exchanging information on events relevant to safety. Among the 2171 events in the database, 175 events (i.e. 8%) were identified as ''control room events''. It was decided to group these into three sets for further study: 65 events with common mode/cause failures (CCFs), 22 events with cognitive errors and 30 events with unforeseen interaction between NPP systems. It is expected that the pitfalls experienced in the IRS and the questions derived from this study will help to gain a better understanding of the needs and interests of specialists in advanced information methods and artificial intelligence in NPP control rooms. (author)

Potential for fuel melting and cladding thermal failure during a PCM event in LWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Genk, M.S.; Croucher, D.W.

1979-01-01

The primary concern in nuclear reactor safety is to ensure that no conceivable accident, whether initiated by a failure of the reactor system or by incorrect operation, will lead to a dangerous release of radiation to the environment. A number of hypothesized off-normal power or cooling conditions, generally termed as power-cooling-mismatch (PCM) accidents, are considered in the safety analysis of light water reactors (LWRs). During a PCM accident, film boiling may occur at the cladding surface and cause a rapid temperature increase in the fuel and the cladding, perhaps producing embrittlement of the zircaloy cladding by oxidation. Molten fuel may be produced at the center of the pellets, extrude radially through open cracks in the outer, unmelted portion of the pellet and relocate in the fuel-cladding gap. If the amount of extruded molten fuel is sufficient to establish contact with the cladding, which is at a high temperature during film boiling, the zircaloy cladding may melt. The present work assesses the potential for central fuel melting and thermal failure of the zircaloy cladding due to melting upon being contacted by extruded molten UO 2 -fuel during a PCM event

Human reliability analysis using event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heslinga, G.

1983-01-01

The shut-down procedure of a technologically complex installation as a nuclear power plant consists of a lot of human actions, some of which have to be performed several times. The procedure is regarded as a chain of modules of specific actions, some of which are analyzed separately. The analysis is carried out by making a Human Reliability Analysis event tree (HRA event tree) of each action, breaking down each action into small elementary steps. The application of event trees in human reliability analysis implies more difficulties than in the case of technical systems where event trees were mainly used until now. The most important reason is that the operator is able to recover a wrong performance; memory influences play a significant role. In this study these difficulties are dealt with theoretically. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) in principle event trees may be used in human reliability analysis; (2) although in practice the operator will recover his fault partly, theoretically this can be described as starting the whole event tree again; (3) compact formulas have been derived, by which the probability of reaching a specific failure consequence on passing through the HRA event tree after several times of recovery is to be calculated. (orig.)

An open-label dose escalation study to evaluate the safety of administration of nonviral stromal cell-derived factor-1 plasmid to treat symptomatic ischemic heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Penn, Marc S; Mendelsohn, Farrell O; Schaer, Gary L; Sherman, Warren; Farr, Maryjane; Pastore, Joseph; Rouy, Didier; Clemens, Ruth; Aras, Rahul; Losordo, Douglas W

2013-03-01

Preclinical studies indicate that adult stem cells induce tissue repair by activating endogenous stem cells through the stromal cell-derived factor-1:chemokine receptor type 4 axis. JVS-100 is a DNA plasmid encoding human stromal cell-derived factor-1. We tested in a phase 1, open-label, dose-escalation study with 12 months of follow-up in subjects with ischemic cardiomyopathy to see if JVS-100 improves clinical parameters. Seventeen subjects with ischemic cardiomyopathy, New York Heart Association class III heart failure, with an ejection fraction ≤40% on stable medical therapy, were enrolled to receive 5, 15, or 30 mg of JVS-100 via endomyocardial injection. The primary end points for safety and efficacy were at 1 and 4 months, respectively. The primary safety end point was a major adverse cardiac event. Efficacy end points were change in quality of life, New York Heart Association class, 6-minute walk distance, single photon emission computed tomography, N-terminal pro-brain natruretic peptide, and echocardiography at 4 and 12 months. The primary safety end point was met. At 4 months, all of the cohorts demonstrated improvements in 6-minute walk distance, quality of life, and New York Heart Association class. Subjects in the 15- and 30-mg dose groups exhibited improvements in 6-minute walk distance (15 mg: median [range]: 41 minutes [3-61 minutes]; 30 mg: 31 minutes [22-74 minutes]) and quality of life (15 mg: -16 points [+1 to -32 points]; 30 mg: -24 points [+17 to -38 points]) over baseline. At 12 months, improvements in symptoms were maintained. These data highlight the importance of defining the molecular mechanisms of stem cell-based tissue repair and suggest that overexpression of stromal cell-derived factor-1 via gene therapy is a strategy for improving heart failure symptoms in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy.

Failure of hippocampal deactivation during loss events in treatment-resistant depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Blair A; Tolomeo, Serenella; Gradin, Victoria; Christmas, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

2015-09-01

Major depressive disorder is characterized by anhedonia, cognitive biases, ruminations, hopelessness and increased anxiety. Blunted responses to rewards have been reported in a number of recent neuroimaging and behavioural studies of major depressive disorder. In contrast, neural responses to aversive events remain an under-studied area. While selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors are often effective in treating major depressive disorder, their mechanism of action remains unclear. Following a series of animal model investigations of depressive illness and serotonergic function, Deakin and Graeff predicted that brain activity in patients with major depressive disorder is associated with an overactive dorsal raphe nucleus with overactive projections to the amygdala, periaqueductal grey and striatum, and an underactive median raphe nucleus with underactive projections to the hippocampus. Here we describe an instrumental loss-avoidance and win-gain reinforcement learning functional magnetic resonance imaging study with 40 patients with highly treatment-resistant major depressive disorder and never-depressed controls. The dorsal raphe nucleus/ periaqueductal grey region of the midbrain and hippocampus were found to be overactive in major depressive disorder during unsuccessful loss-avoidance although the median raphe nucleus was not found to be underactive. Hippocampal overactivity was due to a failure to deactivate during loss events in comparison to controls, and hippocampal over-activity correlated with depression severity, self-report 'hopelessness' and anxiety. Deakin and Graeff argued that the median raphe nucleus normally acts to inhibit consolidation of aversive memories via the hippocampus and this system is underactive in major depressive disorder, facilitating the development of ruminations, while the dorsal raphe nucleus system is engaged by distal cues predictive of threats and is overactive in major depressive disorder. During win events the striatum

Estimation of common cause failure parameters for diesel generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tirira, J.; Lanore, J.M.

2002-10-01

This paper presents a summary of some results concerning the feedback analysis of French Emergency diesel generator (EDG). The database of common cause failure for EDG has been updated. The data collected covers a period of 10 years. Several latent common cause failure (CCF) events counting in tens are identified. In fact, in this number of events collected, most are potential CCF. From events identified, 15% events are characterized as complete CCF. The database is organised following the structure proposed by 'International Common Cause Data Exchange' (ICDE project). Events collected are analyzed by failure mode and degree of failure. Qualitative analysis of root causes, coupling factors and corrective actions are studied. The exercise of quantitative analysis is in progress for evaluating CCF parameters taking into account the average impact vector and the rate of the independent failures. The interest of the average impact vector approach is that it makes it possible to take into account a wide experience feedback, not limited to complete CCF but including also many events related to partial or potential CCF. It has to be noted that there are no finalized quantitative conclusions yet to be drawn and analysis is in progress for evaluating diesel CCF parameters. In fact, the numerical coding CCF representation of the events uses a part of subjective analysis, which requests a complete and detailed event examination. (authors)

Dependent failures of diesel generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Pulkkinen, U.

1982-01-01

This survey of dependent failures (common-cause failures) is based on the data of diesel generator failures in U. S. nuclear power plants as reported in Licensee Event Reports. Failures were classified into random and potentially dependent failures. All failures due to design errors, manufacturing or installation errors, maintenance errors, or deviations in the operational environment were classified as potentially dependent failures.The statistical dependence between failures was estimated from the relative portion of multiple failures. Results confirm the earlier view of the significance of statistical dependence, a strong dependence on the age of the diesel generator was found in each failure class excluding random failures and maintenance errors, which had a nearly constant frequency independent of diesel generator age

ICDE project report on collection and analysis of common-cause failures of centrifugal pumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Several member countries of OECD/NEA decided to establish the International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) Project to encourage multilateral co-operation in the collection and analysis of data relating to Common-Cause Failure (CCF) events. The project was initiated in August 1994 in Sweden and was discussed at meetings in both Sweden and France in 1995. A coding benchmark exercise was defined which was evaluated at meetings held in Germany and in the US in 1996. Subsequently, the exchange of centrifugal pump data was defined; the first phase of this exchange was evaluated at meetings in Switzerland and in France in 1997. The objectives of the ICDE Project are: - to collect and analyse CCF events in the long term so as to better understand such events, their causes, and their prevention, - to generate qualitative insights into the root causes of CCF events which can then be used to derive approaches or mechanisms for their prevention or for mitigating their consequences, - to establish a mechanism for the efficient feedback of experience gained on CCF phenomena, including the development of defences against their occurrence, such as indicators for risk based inspections. The ICDE Project is envisaged as including all possible events of interest, comprising complete, partial and incipient CCF events, called 'ICDE events' in the following. The Project covers the key components of the main safety systems, like centrifugal pumps, diesel generators, motor operated valves, power operated relief valves, safety relief valves, check valves, RPS circuit breakers, batteries and transmitters. Data are collected in an MS ACCESS based databank implemented and maintained at ES-Konsult, Sweden, by NEA appointed clearinghouse. The databank is regularly updated. The clearinghouse and the project group operate it. In the modelling of common-cause failures in systems consisting of several redundant components, two kinds of events are distinguished: a) Unavailability of a

Four faces of baroreflex failure: hypertensive crisis, volatile hypertension, orthostatic tachycardia, and malignant vagotonia

Science.gov (United States)

Ketch, Terry; Biaggioni, Italo; Robertson, RoseMarie; Robertson, David

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: The baroreflex normally serves to buffer blood pressure against excessive rise or fall. Baroreflex failure occurs when afferent baroreceptive nerves or their central connections become impaired. In baroreflex failure, there is loss of buffering ability, and wide excursions of pressure and heart rate occur. Such excursions may derive from endogenous factors such as stress or drowsiness, which result in quite high and quite low pressures, respectively. They may also derive from exogenous factors such as drugs or environmental influences. METHODS AND RESULTS: Impairment of the baroreflex may produce an unusually broad spectrum of clinical presentations; with acute baroreflex failure, a hypertensive crisis is the most common presentation. Over succeeding days to weeks, or in the absence of an acute event, volatile hypertension with periods of hypotension occurs and may continue for many years, usually with some attenuation of pressor surges and greater prominence of depressor valleys during long-term follow-up. With incomplete loss of baroreflex afferents, a mild syndrome of orthostatic tachycardia or orthostatic intolerance may appear. Finally, if the baroreflex failure occurs without concomitant destruction of the parasympathetic efferent vagal fibers, a resting state may lead to malignant vagotonia with severe bradycardia and hypotension and episodes of sinus arrest. CONCLUSIONS: Although baroreflex failure is not the most common cause of the above conditions, correct differentiation from other cardiovascular disorders is important, because therapy of baroreflex failure requires specific strategies, which may lead to successful control.

Higher dietary lycopene intake is associated with longer cardiac event-free survival in patients with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Biddle, Martha; Moser, Debra; Song, Eun Kyeung; Heo, Seongkum; Payne-Emerson, Heather; Dunbar, Sandra B; Pressler, Susan; Lennie, Terry

2013-08-01

The antioxidant lycopene may be beneficial for patients with heart failure (HF). Processed tomato products are a major source of lycopene, although they are also high in sodium. Increased sodium intake may counter the positive antioxidant effect of lycopene. This was a prospective study of 212 patients with HF. Dietary intake of lycopene and sodium was obtained from weighted 4-day food diaries. Patients were grouped by the median split of lycopene of 2471 µg/day and stratified by daily sodium levels above and below 3 g/day. Patients were followed for 1 year to collect survival and hospitalization data. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to compare cardiac event-free survival between lycopene groups within each stratum of sodium intake. Higher lycopene intake was associated with longer cardiac event-free survival compared with lower lycopene intake (p = 0.003). The worst cardiac event-free survival was observed in the low lycopene intake group regardless of sodium intake (> 3 g/day HR = 3.01; p = 0.027 and ≤ 3 g/day HR= 3.34; p = 0.023). These findings suggest that increased lycopene intake has the potential to improve cardiac event-free survival in patients with HF independent of sodium intake.

Safety relevant failure mechanisms in the post-operational phase; Sicherheitstechnisch relevante Fehlermechanismen in der Nachbetriebsphase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mayer, Gerhard; Stiller, Jan Christopher; Roemer, Sarah

2017-03-15

. Finally, national and international operating experience was evaluated with the aim to derive general failure mechanisms from events that have occurred. For this purpose, the database of German reportable events (VERA), the database of the OECD/NEA ''International Common-cause Data Exchange (ICDE)'' project as well as the database of the ''International Reporting Systems for Operating Experience (IRS)'' of the IAEA was searched. As these data sources comprise a total number of about 12,000 events, initially the evaluation focused on the 309 events that occurred in plants that are in the post operation or decommissioning phase. In order to capture events from power operation whose damage phenomena have special relevance for post operation, too, attempts were made to develop automatic searches that would deliver a pre-selection of relevant results. To evaluate this method, 900 events from a German twin unit plant over a period from their construction until the present were analysed manually. It turned out that an automated search did not deliver enveloping results. All in all, 12 events from German plants in post operation or decommissioning and 36 events from plants with power operation licences as well as 6 events from international operating experience (IRS and ICDE) which showed a failure mechanism with special relevance for the post operation phase were identified. The events were presented individually, with special emphasis on the description of the failure mechanism that was particularly relevant for post operation. The failure mechanisms identified can be allocated to the following three general categories: special operating modes; changed operating or ambient conditions; organisational and personnel boundary conditions. The failure mechanisms assigned to these categories are presented in a summarized form and discussed.

Satellite failures revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2012-12-01

In January 1994, the two geostationary satellites known as Anik-E1 and Anik-E2, operated by Telesat Canada, failed one after the other within 9 hours, leaving many northern Canadian communities without television and data services. The outage, which shut down much of the country's broadcast television for hours and cost Telesat Canada more than $15 million, generated significant media attention. Lam et al. used publicly available records to revisit the event; they looked at failure details, media coverage, recovery effort, and cost. They also used satellite and ground data to determine the precise causes of those satellite failures. The researchers traced the entire space weather event from conditions on the Sun through the interplanetary medium to the particle environment in geostationary orbit.

Hyporesponsiveness to Darbepoetin Alfa in Patients With Heart Failure and Anemia in the RED-HF Study (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure): Clinical and Prognostic Associations.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Peter; Grote Beverborg, Niels; Pfeffer, Marc A; Olson, Kurt; Anand, Inder S; Westenbrink, B Daan; McMurray, John J V; Swedberg, Karl; Young, James B; Solomon, Scott D; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J

2018-02-01

A poor response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents such as darbepoetin alfa has been associated with adverse outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and anemia; whether this is also true in heart failure is unclear. We performed a post hoc analysis of the RED-HF trial (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure), in which 1008 patients with systolic heart failure and anemia (hemoglobin level, 9.0-12.0 g/dL) were randomized to darbepoetin alfa. We examined the relationship between the hematopoietic response to darbepoetin alfa and the incidence of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization during a follow-up of 28 months. For the purposes of the present study, patients in the lowest quartile of hemoglobin change after 4 weeks were considered nonresponders. The median initial hemoglobin change in nonresponders (n=252) was -0.25 g/dL and +1.00 g/dL in the remainder of patients (n=756). Worse renal function, lower sodium levels, and less use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers were independently associated with nonresponse. Although a low endogenous erythropoietin level helped to differentiate responders from nonresponders, its predictive value in a multivariable model was poor (C statistic=0.69). Nonresponders had a higher rate of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.54) and a higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.63) than responders. A poor response to darbepoetin alfa was associated with worse outcomes in heart failure patients with anemia. Patients with a poor response were difficult to identify using clinical and biochemical biomarkers. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00358215. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Event-related stresses in energy systems and their effects on energy security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Larry; Ranjan, Ashish

2013-01-01

Energy systems change over time as events, such as grid failures, new energy sources, and extreme weather conditions, occur, often affecting the system's energy security. Understanding events, their causes, and how they are handled, can help a jurisdiction and its energy stakeholders develop better, evidence-based energy policy. This paper employs a definition of stress in combination with systems analysis to specify methods for explaining the states through which an energy process, chain, or system passes in response to an event and how this response results in energy security improving, deteriorating, or being maintained. The definition uses three dimensions-availability, affordability, and acceptability-derived from the International Energy Agency's definition of energy security to show when and how a system's energy security will change. Examples are used to illustrate the application of the methods. - Highlights: • A generic set of methods and a common terminology to formalize the ongoing energy security discourse is proposed. • The methods define, measure and explain how energy security can change when events cause stresses in an energy system. • Events are classified in terms of three dimensions derived from the IEA's definition of energy security. • The application of the method is illustrated with detailed examples

A Study of Failure Events in Drinking Water Systems As a Basis for Comparison and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Potable Reuse Schemes.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Laura A; Quinn, Chloe; Tng, Keng H; Wood, James G; Leslie, Greg

2015-01-01

Potable reuse is implemented in several countries around the world to augment strained water supplies. This article presents a public health perspective on potable reuse by comparing the critical infrastructure and institutional capacity characteristics of two well-established potable reuse schemes with conventional drinking water schemes in developed nations that have experienced waterborne outbreaks. Analysis of failure events in conventional water systems between 2003 and 2013 showed that despite advances in water treatment technologies, drinking water outbreaks caused by microbial contamination were still frequent in developed countries and can be attributed to failures in infrastructure or institutional practices. Numerous institutional failures linked to ineffective treatment protocols, poor operational practices, and negligence were detected. In contrast, potable reuse schemes that use multiple barriers, online instrumentation, and operational measures were found to address the events that have resulted in waterborne outbreaks in conventional systems in the past decade. Syndromic surveillance has emerged as a tool in outbreak detection and was useful in detecting some outbreaks; increases in emergency department visits and GP consultations being the most common data source, suggesting potential for an increasing role in public health surveillance of waterborne outbreaks. These results highlight desirable characteristics of potable reuse schemes from a public health perspective with potential for guiding policy on surveillance activities.

Acceleration to failure in geophysical signals prior to laboratory rock failure and volcanic eruptions (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Greenhough, J.; Heap, M. J.; Meredith, P. G.

2010-12-01

The nucleation processes that ultimately lead to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, rock bursts in mines, and landslides from cliff slopes are likely to be controlled at some scale by brittle failure of the Earth’s crust. In laboratory brittle deformation experiments geophysical signals commonly exhibit an accelerating trend prior to dynamic failure. Similar signals have been observed prior to volcanic eruptions, including volcano-tectonic earthquake event and moment release rates. Despite a large amount of effort in the search, no such statistically robust systematic trend is found prior to natural earthquakes. Here we describe the results of a suite of laboratory tests on Mount Etna Basalt and other rocks to examine the nature of the non-linear scaling from laboratory to field conditions, notably using laboratory ‘creep’ tests to reduce the boundary strain rate to conditions more similar to those in the field. Seismic event rate, seismic moment release rate and rate of porosity change show a classic ‘bathtub’ graph that can be derived from a simple damage model based on separate transient and accelerating sub-critical crack growth mechanisms, resulting from separate processes of negative and positive feedback in the population dynamics. The signals exhibit clear precursors based on formal statistical model tests using maximum likelihood techniques with Poisson errors. After correcting for the finite loading time of the signal, the results show a transient creep rate that decays as a classic Omori law for earthquake aftershocks, and remarkably with an exponent near unity, as commonly observed for natural earthquake sequences. The accelerating trend follows an inverse power law when fitted in retrospect, i.e. with prior knowledge of the failure time. In contrast the strain measured on the sample boundary shows a less obvious but still accelerating signal that is often absent altogether in natural strain data prior to volcanic eruptions. To test the

External events analysis for the Savannah River Site K reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandyberry, M.D.; Wingo, H.E.

1990-01-01

The probabilistic external events analysis performed for the Savannah River Site K-reactor PRA considered many different events which are generally perceived to be ''external'' to the reactor and its systems, such as fires, floods, seismic events, and transportation accidents (as well as many others). Events which have been shown to be significant contributors to risk include seismic events, tornados, a crane failure scenario, fires and dam failures. The total contribution to the core melt frequency from external initiators has been found to be 2.2 x 10 -4 per year, from which seismic events are the major contributor (1.2 x 10 -4 per year). Fire initiated events contribute 1.4 x 10 -7 per year, tornados 5.8 x 10 -7 per year, dam failures 1.5 x 10 -6 per year and the crane failure scenario less than 10 -4 per year to the core melt frequency. 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

Human based roots of failures in nuclear events investigations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ziedelis, Stanislovas; Noel, Marc; Strucic, Miodrag [Commission of the European Communities, Petten (Netherlands). European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience Feedback for Nuclear Power Plants

2012-10-15

This paper aims for improvement of quality of the event investigations in the nuclear industry through analysis of the existing practices, identifying and removing the existing Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) and management related barriers. It presents the essential results of several studies performed by the European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience. Outcomes of studies are based on survey of currently existing event investigation practices typical for nuclear industry of 12 European countries, as well as on insights from analysis of numerous event investigation reports. System of operational experience feedback from information based on event investigation results is not enough effective to prevent and even to decrease frequency of recurring events due to existing methodological, HOF-related and/or knowledge management related constraints. Besides that, several latent root causes of unsuccessful event investigation are related to weaknesses in safety culture of personnel and managers. These weaknesses include focus on costs or schedule, political manipulation, arrogance, ignorance, entitlement and/or autocracy. Upgrades in safety culture of organization's personnel and its senior management especially seem to be an effective way to improvement. Increasing of competencies, capabilities and level of independency of event investigation teams, elaboration of comprehensive software, ensuring of positive approach, adequate support and impartiality of management could also facilitate for improvement of quality of the event investigations. (orig.)

Human based roots of failures in nuclear events investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziedelis, Stanislovas; Noel, Marc; Strucic, Miodrag

2012-01-01

This paper aims for improvement of quality of the event investigations in the nuclear industry through analysis of the existing practices, identifying and removing the existing Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) and management related barriers. It presents the essential results of several studies performed by the European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience. Outcomes of studies are based on survey of currently existing event investigation practices typical for nuclear industry of 12 European countries, as well as on insights from analysis of numerous event investigation reports. System of operational experience feedback from information based on event investigation results is not enough effective to prevent and even to decrease frequency of recurring events due to existing methodological, HOF-related and/or knowledge management related constraints. Besides that, several latent root causes of unsuccessful event investigation are related to weaknesses in safety culture of personnel and managers. These weaknesses include focus on costs or schedule, political manipulation, arrogance, ignorance, entitlement and/or autocracy. Upgrades in safety culture of organization's personnel and its senior management especially seem to be an effective way to improvement. Increasing of competencies, capabilities and level of independency of event investigation teams, elaboration of comprehensive software, ensuring of positive approach, adequate support and impartiality of management could also facilitate for improvement of quality of the event investigations. (orig.)

Dependency models and probability of joint events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oerjasaeter, O.

1982-08-01

Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

Zero Time of Transitory Nuclear Events Derived by Parent-Daughter Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nir-El, Y.

2014-01-01

The detection and identification of a nuclear event that results in the dissemination of radioactive products into the environment can be realized by dating the age of the event. In order to correct observed activities for the decay since the occurrence of the event, the age must be known to a high level of confidence. Previous papers. described the method to date the age of a nuclear event by measuring the activity of two fission products, which constitute the clock in this application. Within the proficiency test programme for radionuclide laboratories supporting the CTBT, a simulated gamma spectrum with the characteristics of an atmospheric test of a Chinese thermonuclear device, was used to determine the zero time by calculating the theoretical peak area ratio of 95Nb/95Zr. Their approach used only the main gamma lines at 766 and 757 keV and assigned the same detection efficiency to both these close lines. Their methodology of calculating the uncertainty of zero time is subject to comments because it takes the sum of two components (nuclide ratio and activity ratio as function of time) in quadrature. In another paper, the activity of 95Nb as a function of time was presented without any development or expression for the zero time. Analytical equations for zero time and the associated uncertainty calculations were derived in a recent paper using a measured activity ratio of two nuclides and illustrating the procedure by data from the Chinese test. The evaluation of the zero time uncertainty was performed by a very large set of very complicated analytical equations. The present paper aims at developing a procedure to determine the zero time and its uncertainty in a transitory nuclear event by treating a parent-daughter system of 3 nuclides, where one daughter feeds the other one, in addition to its direct feeding by the decay of the parent

Management and outcomes following an acute coronary event in patients with chronic heart failure 1999-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranasinghe, Isuru; Naoum, Chris; Aliprandi-Costa, Bernadette; Sindone, Andrew P; Steg, P Gabriel; Elliott, John; McGarity, Bruce; Lefkovits, Jeffrey; Brieger, David

2012-05-01

The outcome of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) following an ischaemic event is poorly understood. We evaluated the management and outcomes of CHF patients presenting with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and explored changes in outcomes over time. A total of 5556 patients enrolled in the Australia-New Zealand population of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) between 1999 and 2007 were included. Patients with CHF (n = 609) were compared with those without CHF (n = 4947). Patients with CHF were on average 10 years older, were more likely to be female, had more co-morbidities and cardiac risk factors, and were more likely to have a prior history of angina, myocardial infarction, and revascularization by coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) when compared with those without CHF. CHF was associated with a substantial increase in in-hospital renal failure [odds ratio (OR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.71], readmission post-discharge (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.17-1.90), and 6-month mortality (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.55-3.27). Over the 9 year study period, in-hospital and 6 month mortality in those with CHF declined by absolute rates of 7.5% and 14%, respectively. This was temporally associated with an increase in prescription of thienopyridines, beta-blockers, statins, and angiotensin II receptor blockers, increased rates of coronary angiography, and 31.8% absolute increase in referral rates for cardiac rehabilitation. Acute coronary syndrome patients with pre-existing CHF are a very high risk group and carry a disproportionate mortality burden. Encouragingly, there was a marked temporal improvement in outcomes over a 9 year period with an increase in evidence-based treatments and secondary preventative measures.

ES-RBE Event sequence reliability Benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poucet, A.E.J.

1991-01-01

The event Sequence Reliability Benchmark Exercise (ES-RBE) can be considered as a logical extension of the other three Reliability Benchmark Exercices : the RBE on Systems Analysis, the RBE on Common Cause Failures and the RBE on Human Factors. The latter, constituting Activity No. 1, was concluded by the end of 1987. The ES-RBE covered the techniques that are currently used for analysing and quantifying sequences of events starting from an initiating event to various plant damage states, including analysis of various system failures and/or successes, human intervention failure and/or success and dependencies between systems. By this way, one of the scopes of the ES-RBE was to integrate the experiences gained in the previous exercises

Decrease the Number of Glovebox Glove Breaches and Failures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hurtle, Jackie C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2013-12-24

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is committed to the protection of the workers, public, and environment while performing work and uses gloveboxes as engineered controls to protect workers from exposure to hazardous materials while performing plutonium operations. Glovebox gloves are a weak link in the engineered controls and are a major cause of radiation contamination events which can result in potential worker exposure and localized contamination making operational areas off-limits and putting programmatic work on hold. Each day of lost opportunity at Technical Area (TA) 55, Plutonium Facility (PF) 4 is estimated at $1.36 million. Between July 2011 and June 2013, TA-55-PF-4 had 65 glovebox glove breaches and failures with an average of 2.7 per month. The glovebox work follows the five step safety process promoted at LANL with a decision diamond interjected for whether or not a glove breach or failure event occurred in the course of performing glovebox work. In the event that no glove breach or failure is detected, there is an additional decision for whether or not contamination is detected. In the event that contamination is detected, the possibility for a glove breach or failure event is revisited.

Common cause failure investigations using the European Reliability Data System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Games, A.M.; Breewood, M.; Amendola, A.; Keller, A.Z.

1984-01-01

The European Reliability Data System (ERDS) has provided data for use in investigations into common cause failures (CCFs) in nuclear power plants. These investigations have been made on two levels, at a system and inter-system level. Data have been used from the Component Event Data Bank and from the Licensee Event Report Files, both part of the ERDS. The two studies required different methodologies although both commenced with a temporal sorting procedure for the failure events. The studies demonstrated that different types of common cause failure necessitate different search algorithms, and thus a data search must be closely related to an appropriate CCF classification system, which in the first instance would not be based on causes of failure. (author)

Pressure Effects Analysis of National Ignition Facility Capacitor Module Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brereton, S; Ma, C; Newton, M; Pastrnak, J; Price, D; Prokosch, D

1999-01-01

Capacitors and power conditioning systems required for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have experienced several catastrophic failures during prototype demonstration. These events generally resulted in explosion, generating a dramatic fireball and energetic shrapnel, and thus may present a threat to the walls of the capacitor bay that houses the capacitor modules. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of the capacitor bay walls to withstand the overpressure generated by the aforementioned events. Two calculations are described in this paper. The first one was used to estimate the energy release during a fireball event and the second one was used to estimate the pressure in a capacitor module during a capacitor explosion event. Both results were then used to estimate the subsequent overpressure in the capacitor bay where these events occurred. The analysis showed that the expected capacitor bay overpressure was less than the pressure tolerance of the walls. To understand the risk of the above events in NIF, capacitor module failure probabilities were also calculated. This paper concludes with estimates of the probability of single module failure and multi-module failures based on the number of catastrophic failures in the prototype demonstration facility

Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

2017-01-01

External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA

Pfmdr1 copy number and arteminisin derivatives combination therapy failure in falciparum malaria in Cambodia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wongsrichanalai Chansuda

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The combination of artesunate and mefloquine was introduced as the national first-line treatment for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Cambodia in 2000. However, recent clinical trials performed at the Thai-Cambodian border have pointed to the declining efficacy of both artesunate-mefloquine and artemether-lumefantrine. Since pfmdr1 modulates susceptibility to mefloquine and artemisinin derivatives, the aim of this study was to assess the link between pfmdr1 copy number, in vitro susceptibility to individual drugs and treatment failure to combination therapy. Methods Blood samples were collected from P. falciparum-infected patients enrolled in two in vivo efficacy studies in north-western Cambodia: 135 patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL group in Sampovloun in 2002 and 2003, and 140 patients with artesunate-mefloquine (AM group in Sampovloun and Veal Veng in 2003 and 2004. At enrollment, the in vitro IC50 was tested and the strains were genotyped for pfmdr1 copy number by real-time PCR. Results The pfmdr1 copy number was analysed for 115 isolates in the AM group, and for 109 isolates in the AL group. Parasites with increased pfmdr1 copy number had significantly reduced in vitro susceptibility to mefloquine, lumefantrine and artesunate. There was no association between pfmdr1 polymorphisms and in vitro susceptibilities. In the patients treated with AM, the mean pfmdr1copy number was lower in subjects with adequate clinical and parasitological response compared to those who experienced late treatment failure (n = 112, p p = 0.364. The presence of three or more copies of pfmdr1 were associated with recrudescence in artesunate-mefloquine treated patients (hazard ratio (HR = 7.80 [95%CI: 2.09–29.10], N = 115, p = 0.002 but not with recrudescence in artemether-lumefantrine treated patients (HR = 1.03 [95%CI: 0.24–4.44], N = 109, p = 0.969. Conclusion This study shows that pfmdr1 copy number is a molecular

Immune mediated liver failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojing; Ning, Qin

2014-01-01

Liver failure is a clinical syndrome of various etiologies, manifesting as jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy and circulatory dysfunction, which result in subsequent multiorgan failure. Clinically, liver failure is classified into four categories: acute, subacute, acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure. Massive hepatocyte death is considered to be the core event in the development of liver failure, which occurs when the extent of hepatocyte death is beyond the liver regenerative capacity. Direct damage and immune-mediated liver injury are two major factors involved in this process. Increasing evidence has suggested the essential role of immune-mediated liver injury in the pathogenesis of liver failure. Here, we review the evolved concepts concerning the mechanisms of immune-mediated liver injury in liver failure from human and animal studies. Both innate and adaptive immunity, especially the interaction of various immune cells and molecules as well as death receptor signaling system are discussed. In addition, we highlight the concept of "immune coagulation", which has been shown to be related to the disease progression and liver injury exacerbation in HBV related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Uncertainty analysis of reactor safety systems with statistically correlated failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Modarres, M.

1985-01-01

The probability of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree is estimated from failure probability of components that constitute the fault tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. Most fault tree evaluations have so far been based on uncorrelated component failure data. The subject of this paper is the description of a method of assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees when component failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate the mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte-Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. A moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting a Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program (CORRELATE) was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. The CORRELATE code is very efficient and consumes minimal computer time. This is primarily because it does not employ the time-consuming Monte-Carlo method. (author)

Meta-Analysis of the Associations of p-Cresyl Sulfate (PCS) and Indoxyl Sulfate (IS) with Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Chronic Renal Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Cheng-Jui; Wu, Vincent; Wu, Pei-Chen; Wu, Chih-Jen

2015-01-01

Indoxyl sulfate (IS) and p-cresyl sulfate (PCS) are protein-bound uremic toxins that increase in the sera of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and are not effectively removed by dialysis. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to investigate the relationships of PCS and IS with cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with CKD stage 3 and above. Medline, Cochrane, and EMBASE databases were searched until January 1, 2014 with combinations of the following keywords: chronic renal failure, end-stage kidney disease, uremic toxin, uremic retention, indoxyl sulfate, p-cresyl sulfate. Inclusion criteria were: 1) Patients with stage 1 to 5 CKD; 2) Prospective study; 3) Randomized controlled trial; 4) English language publication. The associations between serum levels of PCS and IS and the risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events were the primary outcome measures. Of 155 articles initially identified, 10 prospective and one cross-sectional study with a total 1,572 patients were included. Free PCS was significantly associated with all-cause mortality among patients with chronic renal failure (pooled OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.30, P = 0.013). An elevated free IS level was also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (pooled OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.17, P = 0.003). An elevated free PCS level was significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events among patients with chronic renal failure (pooled OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.50, P = 0.002), while free IS was not significantly associated with risk of cardiovascular events (pooled OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.13, P = 0.196). Elevated levels of PCS and IS are associated with increased mortality in patients with CKD, while PCS, but not IS, is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.

FRELIB, Failure Reliability Index Calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, D.B.; Oestergaard, C.

1984-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: Calculation of the reliability index given the failure boundary. A linearization point (design point) is found on the failure boundary for a stationary reliability index (min) and a stationary failure probability density function along the failure boundary, provided that the basic variables are normally distributed. 2 - Method of solution: Iteration along the failure boundary which must be specified - together with its partial derivatives with respect to the basic variables - by the user in a subroutine FSUR. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: No distribution information included (first-order-second-moment-method). 20 basic variables (could be extended)

Failure Forecasting in Triaxially Stressed Sandstones

Science.gov (United States)

Crippen, A.; Bell, A. F.; Curtis, A.; Main, I. G.

2017-12-01

Precursory signals to fracturing events have been observed to follow power-law accelerations in spatial, temporal, and size distributions leading up to catastrophic failure. In previous studies this behavior was modeled using Voight's relation of a geophysical precursor in order to perform `hindcasts' by solving for failure onset time. However, performing this analysis in retrospect creates a bias, as we know an event happened, when it happened, and we can search data for precursors accordingly. We aim to remove this retrospective bias, thereby allowing us to make failure forecasts in real-time in a rock deformation laboratory. We triaxially compressed water-saturated 100 mm sandstone cores (Pc= 25MPa, Pp = 5MPa, σ = 1.0E-5 s-1) to the point of failure while monitoring strain rate, differential stress, AEs, and continuous waveform data. Here we compare the current `hindcast` methods on synthetic and our real laboratory data. We then apply these techniques to increasing fractions of the data sets to observe the evolution of the failure forecast time with precursory data. We discuss these results as well as our plan to mitigate false positives and minimize errors for real-time application. Real-time failure forecasting could revolutionize the field of hazard mitigation of brittle failure processes by allowing non-invasive monitoring of civil structures, volcanoes, and possibly fault zones.

ICDE project report: collection and analysis of common-cause failures of motor operated valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-07-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of common cause failures (CCF) of motor operated valves (MOV). The data studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database, to which several countries have submitted CCF event data. The purpose of the ICDE is to allow multiple countries to collaborate and exchange CCF data to enhance the quality of risk analyses that include CCF modeling. Because CCF events are typically rare events, most countries do not experience enough CCF events to perform meaningful analyses. Data combined from several countries, however, yields sufficient data for more rigorous analyses. This report is the result of an in-depth review of the MOV events and presents several insights about them. The objective of this document is to look beyond the CCF parameter estimates that can be obtained from the CCF data, to gain further understanding of why CCF events occur and what measures may be taken to prevent, or at least mitigate the effect of MOV CCF events. The report presents details of the ICDE project, a quantitative presentation of the MOV events, and a discussion of some engineering aspects of the events. (authors)

An estimation method of system failure frequency using both structure and component failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaragi, Kazuo; Sasaki, Ryoichi; Shingai, Sadanori; Tominaga, Kenji

1981-01-01

In recent years, the importance of reliability analysis is appreciated for large systems such as nuclear power plants. A reliability analysis method is described for a whole system, using structure failure data for its main working subsystem and component failure data for its safety protection subsystem. The subsystem named main working system operates normally, and the subsystem named safety protection system acts as standby or protection. Thus the main and the protection systems are given mutually different failure data; then, between the subsystems, there exists common mode failure, i.e. the component failure affecting the reliability of both two. A calculation formula for sytem failure frequency is first derived. Then, a calculation method with digraphs is proposed for conditional system failure probability. Finally the results of numerical calculation are given for the purpose of explanation. (J.P.N.)

Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

1980-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riyadi, Eko H.

2014-01-01

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events

Acute renal failure with sodium-glucose-cotransporter-2 inhibitors: Analysis of the FDA adverse event report system database.

Science.gov (United States)

Perlman, A; Heyman, S N; Matok, I; Stokar, J; Muszkat, M; Szalat, A

2017-12-01

Sodium-glucose-cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have recently been approved for the treatment of type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM). It has been proposed that these agents could induce acute renal failure (ARF) under certain conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SGLT2-inhibitors and ARF in the FDA adverse event report system (FAERS) database. We analyzed adverse event cases submitted to FAERS between January 2013 and September 2016. ARF cases were identified using a structured medical query. Medications were identified using both brand and generic names. During the period evaluated, 18,915 reports (out of a total of 3,832,015 registered in FAERS) involved the use of SGLT2-inhibitors. SGLT2-inhibitors were reportedly associated with ARF in 1224 of these cases (6.4%), and were defined as the "primary" or "secondary" cause of the adverse event in 96.8% of these cases. The proportion of reports with ARF among reports with SGLT2 inhibitor was almost three-fold higher compared to reports without these drugs (ROR 2.88, 95% CI 2.71-3.05, p SGLT2-inhibitors was significantly greater than the proportion of ARF among cases with T2DM without SGLT2-inhibitors (ROR 1.68, 95% CI 1.57-1.8, p SGLT2-inhibitors, canagliflozin was associated with a higher proportion of reports of renal failure (7.3%), compared to empagliflozin and dapagliflozin (4.7% and 4.8% respectively, p SGLT2-inhibitors are associated with an increase in the proportion of reports of ARF compared to other medications. SGLT2-inhibitor agents may differ from one another in their respective risk for ARF. Copyright © 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure Modes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, K. P.; Burcharth, H. F.; Ibsen, Lars Bo

1999-01-01

The present appendix contains the derivation of ten different limit state equations divided on three different failure modes. Five of the limit state equations can be used independently of the characteristics of the subsoil, whereas the remaining five can be used for either drained or undrained s...

Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

Science.gov (United States)

Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew

2011-07-01

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

From great expectations to an even greater failure - the case of Montenegrin regulatory framework on shareholder derivative suits as an incentive for rethinking the concept itself

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Savković

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The author utilizes a case study of Montenegrin regulatory concept of shareholder derivative suits in order to demonstrate, by comparing its features with such concepts in other legal systems and features marked as favorable factors in legal theory, that its failure, as well as the failure of derivative suits in other countries cannot be a priori considered as result of inadequate approach of the legislator. Along with some other important legal systems, shareholder derivative litigation in United States is also analyzed, since its track record shows that it is virtually the single at least relatively successful system of derivative suits so far. This analysis is made so as to distinguish the particular and in many ways unique features of the shareholder derivative litigation concept in United States that enabled the relative success of it. As result of the research conducted and analyses made, the author argues that there is an inherent flaw in the very foundation of the concept of shareholder derivative suits, which generally hinders the use of this legal mechanism. Finally, the author finds that this flaw is deeply rooted in what is known today in theory of company law as the first agency problem.

Congestive Heart Failure Cardiopoietic Regenerative Therapy (CHART-1) trial design.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartunek, Jozef; Davison, Beth; Sherman, Warren; Povsic, Thomas; Henry, Timothy D; Gersh, Bernard; Metra, Marco; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Hajjar, Roger; Behfar, Atta; Homsy, Christian; Cotter, Gad; Wijns, William; Tendera, Michal; Terzic, Andre

2016-02-01

Cardiopoiesis is a conditioning programme that aims to upgrade the cardioregenerative aptitude of patient-derived stem cells through lineage specification. Cardiopoietic stem cells tested initially for feasibility and safety exhibited signs of clinical benefit in patients with ischaemic heart failure (HF) warranting definitive evaluation. Accordingly, CHART-1 is designed as a large randomized, sham-controlled multicentre study aimed to validate cardiopoietic stem cell therapy. Patients (n = 240) with chronic HF secondary to ischaemic heart disease, reduced LVEF (Heart Failure Questionnaire score, 6 min walk test, LV end-systolic volume, and LVEF at 9 months. The secondary efficacy endpoint is the time to cardiovascular death or worsening HF at 12 months. Safety endpoints include mortality, readmissions, aborted sudden deaths, and serious adverse events at 12 and 24 months. The CHART-1 clinical trial is powered to examine the therapeutic impact of lineage-directed stem cells as a strategy to achieve cardiac regeneration in HF populations. On completion, CHART-1 will offer a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of cardiopoietic stem cells in the treatment of chronic ischaemic HF. NCT01768702. © 2015 The Authors European Journal of Heart Failure © 2015 European Society of Cardiology.

Automated Testing of Event-Driven Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Casper Svenning

may be tested by selecting an interesting input (i.e. a sequence of events), and deciding if a failure occurs when the selected input is applied to the event-driven application under test. Automated testing promises to reduce the workload for developers by automatically selecting interesting inputs...... and detect failures. However, it is non-trivial to conduct automated testing of event-driven applications because of, for example, infinite input spaces and the absence of specifications of correct application behavior. In this PhD dissertation, we identify a number of specific challenges when conducting...... automated testing of event-driven applications, and we present novel techniques for solving these challenges. First, we present an algorithm for stateless model-checking of event-driven applications with partial-order reduction, and we show how this algorithm may be used to systematically test web...

Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmaltz, H.; Hristodulidis, A.

2007-01-01

The 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Fire Events' (Fire-PSA KKI2) for the NPP Isar 2 was performed in addition to the PSA for full power operation and considers all possible events which can be initiated due to a fire. The aim of the plant specific Fire-PSA was to perform a quantitative assessment of fire events during full power operation, which is state of the art. Based on simplistic assumptions referring to the fire induced failures, the influence of system- and component-failures on the frequency of the core damage states was analysed. The Fire-PSA considers events, which will result due to fire-induced failures of equipment on the one hand in a SCRAM and on the other hand in events, which will not have direct operational effects but because of the fire-induced failure of safety related installations the plant will be shut down as a precautionary measure. These events are considered because they may have a not negligible influence on the frequency of core damage states in case of failures during the plant shut down because of the reduced redundancy of safety related systems. (orig.)

Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, Jussi K.

2005-01-01

Simultaneous failures of multiple components due to common causes at random times are modelled by constant multiple-failure rates. A procedure is described for quantification of common cause failure (CCF) basic event probabilities for system models using plant-specific and multiple-plant failure-event data. Methodology is presented for estimating CCF-rates from event data contaminated with assessment uncertainties. Generalised impact vectors determine the moments for the rates of individual systems or plants. These moments determine the effective numbers of events and observation times to be input to a Bayesian formalism to obtain plant-specific posterior CCF-rates. The rates are used to determine plant-specific common cause event probabilities for the basic events of explicit fault tree models depending on test intervals, test schedules and repair policies. Three methods are presented to determine these probabilities such that the correct time-average system unavailability can be obtained with single fault tree quantification. Recommended numerical values are given and examples illustrate different aspects of the methodology

Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Porter, David C.; Tanggaard, Carsten; G. Weaver, Daniel

With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight into thi......With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight...... combined with widely dispersed trading locations may be a viable means of protection against market failure during massive power disruptions or terrorist attacks....

Lipid disorders in patients with renal failure: Role in cardiovascular events and progression of chronic kidney disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Visconti

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The spectrum of lipid disorders in chronic kidney disease (CKD is usually characterized by high triglycerides and reduced high dense lipoprotein (HDL, associated with normal or slightly reduced low dense lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol. This dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Keys for the cardiovascular risk reduction in these patients are lowering the number and modifying the composition of the cholesterol-carrying atherogenic lipoprotein particles. Statins have an important role in primary prevention of cardiovascular events and mortality in non-hemodialyzed CKD patients. The benefits in terms of progression of renal failure are contradictory. Patient education regarding dietary regimen should be part of the CKD clinical management.

Statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events: data mining of the public version of the FDA adverse event reporting system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toshiyuki Sakaeda

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Adverse event reports (AERs submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA were reviewed to assess the muscular and renal adverse events induced by the administration of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins and to attempt to determine the rank-order of the association. METHODS: After a revision of arbitrary drug names and the deletion of duplicated submissions, AERs involving pravastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, or rosuvastatin were analyzed. Authorized pharmacovigilance tools were used for quantitative detection of signals, i.e., drug-associated adverse events, including the proportional reporting ratio, the reporting odds ratio, the information component given by a Bayesian confidence propagation neural network, and the empirical Bayes geometric mean. Myalgia, rhabdomyolysis and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level were focused on as the muscular adverse events, and acute renal failure, non-acute renal failure, and an increase in blood creatinine level as the renal adverse events. RESULTS: Based on 1,644,220 AERs from 2004 to 2009, signals were detected for 4 statins with respect to myalgia, rhabdomyolysis, and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level, but these signals were stronger for rosuvastatin than pravastatin and atorvastatin. Signals were also detected for acute renal failure, though in the case of atorvastatin, the association was marginal, and furthermore, a signal was not detected for non-acute renal failure or for an increase in blood creatinine level. CONCLUSIONS: Data mining of the FDA's adverse event reporting system, AERS, is useful for examining statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events. The data strongly suggest the necessity of well-organized clinical studies with respect to statin-associated adverse events.

Statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events: data mining of the public version of the FDA adverse event reporting system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakaeda, Toshiyuki; Kadoyama, Kaori; Okuno, Yasushi

2011-01-01

Adverse event reports (AERs) submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were reviewed to assess the muscular and renal adverse events induced by the administration of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins) and to attempt to determine the rank-order of the association. After a revision of arbitrary drug names and the deletion of duplicated submissions, AERs involving pravastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, or rosuvastatin were analyzed. Authorized pharmacovigilance tools were used for quantitative detection of signals, i.e., drug-associated adverse events, including the proportional reporting ratio, the reporting odds ratio, the information component given by a Bayesian confidence propagation neural network, and the empirical Bayes geometric mean. Myalgia, rhabdomyolysis and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level were focused on as the muscular adverse events, and acute renal failure, non-acute renal failure, and an increase in blood creatinine level as the renal adverse events. Based on 1,644,220 AERs from 2004 to 2009, signals were detected for 4 statins with respect to myalgia, rhabdomyolysis, and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level, but these signals were stronger for rosuvastatin than pravastatin and atorvastatin. Signals were also detected for acute renal failure, though in the case of atorvastatin, the association was marginal, and furthermore, a signal was not detected for non-acute renal failure or for an increase in blood creatinine level. Data mining of the FDA's adverse event reporting system, AERS, is useful for examining statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events. The data strongly suggest the necessity of well-organized clinical studies with respect to statin-associated adverse events.

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riyadi, Eko H., E-mail: e.riyadi@bapeten.go.id [Center for Regulatory Assessment of Nuclear Installation and Materials, Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency (BAPETEN), Jl. Gajah Mada 8 Jakarta 10120 (Indonesia)

2014-09-30

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

Treatment of external events in the linked event tree methodology NPP Goesgen - Daeniken example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozlik, Thomas

2014-01-01

The NPP Goesgen-Daeniken uses a combined level 1 / level 2 PSA model for its event analyses. The model uses a linked event tree approach, using the software RISKMAN R . Each initiating event passes through a modularized event tree structure, consisting of external events pre-trees, alignment and support systems trees and front-line and containment response trees. This paper explains the structure of the linked event trees. Switches are used to bypass certain trees for specific initiating events. The screening process applied to possible external events is explained. The final scope of considered natural external events in the Goesgen PSA consists of earthquakes, seasonal events causing cooling water intake plugging or external floods. The structure of the natural external events pre-trees is explained. The treatment of external floods is explained in more detail. Floods at the Goesgen site are caused by extreme river flows into the old branch of the Aare river. A new model has been developed to analyse the probabilistic flood hazard using a bivariate distribution (water level and flood duration). Analysing the statistical data, the time trend had to be considered. The Goesgen PSA models 7 external flood initiating events, considering different water levels and durations at the flooded plant site. The building fragilities were developed in terms of resistance times. The RISKMAN R external flood pre-tree consists of top events for operator actions and failure of the building functions, which leads to the functional failure of equipment located at the lower elevation of the building. (author)

Improved methods for dependent failure analysis in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, G.M.; Games, A.M.

1988-01-01

The basic design principle used in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plant is defence in depth. This normally takes the form of redundant equipment and systems which provide protection even if a number of equipment failures occur. Such redundancy is particularly effective in ensuring that multiple, independent equipment failures with the potential for jeopardising reactor safety will be rare events. However the achievement of high reliability has served to highlight the potentially dominant role of multiple, dependent failures of equipment and systems. Analysis of reactor operating experience has shown that dependent failure events are the major contributors to safety system failures and reactor incidents and accidents. In parallel PSA studies have shown that the results of a safety analysis are sensitive to assumptions made about the dependent failure (CCF) probability for safety systems. Thus a Westinghouse Analysis showed that increasing system dependent failure probabilities by a factor of 5 led to a factor 4 increase in core. This paper particularly refers to the engineering concepts underlying dependent failure assessment touching briefly on aspects of data. It is specifically not the intent of our work to develop a new mathematical model of CCF but to aid the use of existing models

Rare event techniques applied in the Rasmussen study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1977-01-01

The Rasmussen Study estimated public risks from commercial nuclear power plant accidents, and therefore the statistics of rare events had to be treated. Two types of rare events were specifically handled, those rare events which were probabilistically rare events and those which were statistically rare events. Four techniques were used to estimate probabilities of rare events. These techniques were aggregating data samples, discretizing ''continuous'' events, extrapolating from minor to catastrophic severities, and decomposing events using event trees and fault trees. In aggregating or combining data the goal was to enlarge the data sample so that the rare event was no longer rare, i.e., so that the enlarged data sample contained one or more occurrences of the event of interest. This aggregation gave rise to random variable treatments of failure rates, occurrence frequencies, and other characteristics estimated from data. This random variable treatment can be interpreted as being comparable to an empirical Bayes technique or a Bayesian technique. In the discretizing event technique, events of a detailed nature were grouped together into a grosser event for purposes of analysis as well as for data collection. The treatment of data characteristics as random variables helped to account for the uncertainties arising from this discretizing. In the severity extrapolation technique a severity variable was associated with each event occurrence for the purpose of predicting probabilities of catastrophic occurrences. Tail behaviors of distributions therefore needed to be considered. Finally, event trees and fault trees were used to express accident occurrences and system failures in terms of more basic events for which data existed. Common mode failures and general dependencies therefore needed to be treated. 2 figures

A REVIEW OF SOFTWARE-INDUCED FAILURE EXPERIENCE.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; YUE, M.; LEHNER, J.

2006-09-01

We present a review of software-induced failures in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) and in several non-nuclear industries. We discuss the approach used for connecting operational events related to these failures and the insights gained from this review. In particular, we elaborate on insights that can be used to model this kind of failure in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. We present the conclusions reached in these areas.

Portable Sleep Monitoring for Diagnosing Sleep Apnea in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Aurora, R Nisha; Patil, Susheel P; Punjabi, Naresh M

2018-04-21

Sleep apnea is an underdiagnosed condition in patients with heart failure. Efficient identification of sleep apnea is needed, as treatment may improve heart failure-related outcomes. Currently, use of portable sleep monitoring in hospitalized patients and those at risk for central sleep apnea is discouraged. This study examined whether portable sleep monitoring with respiratory polygraphy can accurately diagnose sleep apnea in patients hospitalized with decompensated heart failure. Hospitalized patients with decompensated heart failure underwent concurrent respiratory polygraphy and polysomnography. Both recordings were scored for obstructive and central disordered breathing events in a blinded fashion, using standard criteria, and the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was determined. Pearson's correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots were used to examine the concordance among the overall, obstructive, and central AHI values derived by respiratory polygraphy and polysomnography. The sample consisted of 53 patients (47% women) with a mean age of 59.0 years. The correlation coefficient for the overall AHI from the two diagnostic methods was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.96). The average difference in AHI between the two methods was 3.6 events/h. Analyses of the central and obstructive AHI values showed strong concordance between the two methods, with correlation coefficients of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95), respectively. Complete agreement in the classification of sleep apnea severity between the two methods was seen in 89% of the sample. Portable sleep monitoring can accurately diagnose sleep apnea in hospitalized patients with heart failure and may promote early initiation of treatment. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collections and Analyses of Common Cause Failure Data for the Korea Standard and Westinghouse Type NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Han, S. H.

2007-04-01

The analyses of the CCF events for domestic NPPs were performed to establish the domestic database for the CCF events and to deliver supply them to the operation office of the international common cause failure data exchange (ICDE) project. We collected and analyzed the CCF events of emergency diesel generators, centrifugal pumps, motor-operated valves, check valves, circuit breakers for the Korean Standard Type nuclear power plants (NPPs), Yonggwang Units 3 and 4 and Ulchin Units 3 and 4, and the Westinghouse type NPPs, Kori Unit 3 and 4 and Yonggwang Units 1 and 2. First, the components to be collected and analyzed were classified into the common cause component groups (CCCGs) according to the ICDE coding guidelines. Next, the CCF events were identified based on reviews of the component database for the PSA and its related documents, and consultations with NPP staff. Fourteen CCF events were identified. The ratio of the number of CCF events to that of individual failure events was identified as approximately 10 percentages. However, an in depth review of the CCF events showed that most failure severities of them were identified as partial CCF events, which can be interpreted as some component failures within the CCCGs. Root causes of the CCF events were identified as 9 internal part failures, 2 human errors, 2 design deficiencies, 1 procedure inadequacy. It could be concluded that the major root causes of the CCF events were internal piece part failures

Analysis of loss of offsite power events reported in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: Andrija.VOLKANOVSKI@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Ballesteros Avila, Antonio; Peinador Veira, Miguel [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Kančev, Duško [Kernkraftwerk Goesgen-Daeniken AG, CH-4658 Daeniken (Switzerland); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Stephan, Jean-Luc [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 – 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

2016-10-15

Highlights: • Loss of offsite power events were identified in four databases. • Engineering analysis of relevant events was done. • The dominant root cause for LOOP are human failures. • Improved maintenance procedures can decrease the number of LOOP events. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of analysis of the loss of offsite power events (LOOP) in four databases of operational events. The screened databases include: the Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases, the IAEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience (IRS) and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports (LER). In total 228 relevant loss of offsite power events were identified in the IRSN database, 190 in the GRS database, 120 in U.S. LER and 52 in IRS database. Identified events were classified in predefined categories. Obtained results show that the largest percentage of LOOP events is registered during On power operational mode and lasted for two minutes or more. The plant centered events is the main contributor to LOOP events identified in IRSN, GRS and IAEA IRS database. The switchyard centered events are the main contributor in events registered in the NRC LER database. The main type of failed equipment is switchyard failures in IRSN and IAEA IRS, main or secondary lines in NRC LER and busbar failures in GRS database. The dominant root cause for the LOOP events are human failures during test, inspection and maintenance followed by human failures due to the insufficient or wrong procedures. The largest number of LOOP events resulted in reactor trip followed by EDG start. The actions that can result in reduction of the number of LOOP events and minimize consequences on plant safety are identified and presented.

Serious adverse events with infliximab: analysis of spontaneously reported adverse events.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Richard A; Gartlehner, Gerald; Powell, Gregory E; Sandler, Robert S

2007-06-01

Serious adverse events such as bowel obstruction, heart failure, infection, lymphoma, and neuropathy have been reported with infliximab. The aims of this study were to explore adverse event signals with infliximab by using a long period of post-marketing experience, stratifying by indication. The relative reporting of infliximab adverse events to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was assessed with the public release version of the adverse event reporting system (AERS) database from 1968 to third quarter 2005. On the basis of a systematic review of adverse events, Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) terms were mapped to predefined categories of adverse events, including death, heart failure, hepatitis, infection, infusion reaction, lymphoma, myelosuppression, neuropathy, and obstruction. Disproportionality analysis was used to calculate the empiric Bayes geometric mean (EBGM) and corresponding 90% confidence intervals (EB05, EB95) for adverse event categories. Infliximab was identified as the suspect medication in 18,220 reports in the FDA AERS database. We identified a signal for lymphoma (EB05 = 6.9), neuropathy (EB05 = 3.8), infection (EB05 = 2.9), and bowel obstruction (EB05 = 2.8). The signal for granulomatous infections was stronger than the signal for non-granulomatous infections (EB05 = 12.6 and 2.4, respectively). The signals for bowel obstruction and infusion reaction were specific to patients with IBD; this suggests potential confounding by indication, especially for bowel obstruction. In light of this additional evidence of risk of lymphoma, neuropathy, and granulomatous infections, clinicians should stress this risk in the shared decision-making process.

Regulatory experience with fuel failures in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adam, L.

2015-01-01

In this paper the main ENSI activities like: supervision of reactor and radiation safety and security; supervision of safety of transports of nuclear materials and assess the safety of proposed solutions for the geological disposal are listed. Recent events concerning the reactor core, common causes for fuel failures, findings during inspections and potential root cause for fuel failures are discussed. Management of fuel failures, started from reporting of the event – evaluation of the need of imminent action; identification of the fuel element if possible till evaluation by the plant and fuel vendor and allowance by ENSI for repair of the fuel element and definition of measures (short and long term) are also presented. The following Conclusions by ENSI about status of fuel failures are made: 1) Number of fuel failures was reduced regardless more economic operation in all plants; 2) Old PWR and BWR reactors achieved 15 to 29 years operation without leakers, but two minor fuel damage during fuel handling appeared; 3) Newer plants are not better in achieving operation without leakers than older plants; 4) Technical improvements at fuel elements parallel to changes in operation strategy and improvements in manufacturing quality but single effects difficult to judge. The issues about how to implement “Zero Failure Rates” in regulations and how to achieve “Zero Failure Rates” as well as some future measures by ENSI are discussed

Mitophagy Failure in Fibroblasts and iPSC-Derived Neurons of Alzheimer’s Disease-Associated Presenilin 1 Mutation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Martín-Maestro

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Familial Alzheimer’s disease (FAD is clearly related with the accumulation of amyloid-beta (Aβ and its deleterious effect on mitochondrial function is well established. Anomalies in autophagy have also been described in these patients. In the present work, functional analyses have been performed to study mitochondrial recycling process in patient-derived fibroblasts and neurons from induced pluripotent stem cells harboring the presenilin 1 mutation A246E. Mitophagy impairment was observed due to a diminished autophagy degradation phase associated with lysosomal anomalies, thus causing the accumulation of dysfunctional mitochondria labeled by Parkin RBR E3 ubiquitin protein ligase (PARK2. The failure of mitochondrial recycling by autophagy was enhanced in the patient-derived neuronal model. Our previous studies have demonstrated similar mitophagy impairment in sporadic Alzheimer’s disease (AD; therefore, our data indicate that mitophagy deficiency should be considered a common nexus between familial and sporadic cases of the disease.

A Study of the Impact of Peak Demand on Increasing Vulnerability of Cascading Failures to Extreme Contingency Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Nguyen, Tony B.; Samaan, Nader A.; Berscheid, Alan P.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng

2017-10-02

The vulnerability of large power systems to cascading failures and major blackouts has become evident since the Northeast blackout in 1965. Based on analyses of the series of cascading blackouts in the past decade, the research community realized the urgent need to develop better methods, tools, and practices for performing cascading-outage analysis and for evaluating mitigations that are easily accessible by utility planning engineers. PNNL has developed the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) as an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT analysis will help identify potential vulnerabilities and allow study of mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. Using the DCAT capability, we examined the impacts of various load conditions to identify situations in which the power grid may encounter cascading outages that could lead to potential blackouts. This paper describes the usefulness of the DCAT tool and how it helps to understand potential impacts of load demand on cascading failures on the power system.

International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE). General Coding Guidelines - Updated Version, October 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johanson, Gunnar; Werner, Wolfgang; Capote, Marina Concepcion; Kreuser, Albert

2012-01-01

Several OECD/NEA member countries have established the International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange Project ('ICDE Project') to encourage multilateral cooperation in the collection and analysis of data relating to Common-Cause Failure (CCF) events. The objectives of the ICDE Project are to: a) Collect and analyse CCF events over the long term so as to better understand such events, their causes, and their prevention. b) Generate qualitative insights into the root causes of CCF events which can then be used to derive approaches or mechanisms for their prevention or for mitigating their consequences. c) Establish a mechanism for the efficient feedback of experience gained in connection with CCF phenomena, including the development of defenses against their occurrence, such as indicators for risk based inspections. d) Record event attributes to facilitate quantification of CCF frequencies when so decided by the Project Working Group. The ICDE Project is envisaged to comprise all possible events of interest, including both complete and partial ICDE events. The ICDE Project will cover the key components of the main safety systems. Presently, the components listed below are included in the ICDE Project. Data have been collected for the six first components in the list: Centrifugal pumps, Diesel generators, Motor operated valves, Safety relief valves/power operated relief valves, Check valves, Batteries, Level measurement, Breakers, Control rod drive assemblies. Others will be added to this list later on. In this component coding guidelines, explanations on the ICDE general coding format are given. The guide reflects present experience with the data format and with the collected data. Further interpretations and clarifications will be added, should they become necessary. For each component analysed in the ICDE project, separate coding guidance is provided in the appendices ICDECG 01-06, specifying details relevant to the respective components

Canada - Atomic Energy Control Board, Canada. Summary of a common cause failure event which occurred in a Canadian utility. 'Failure to Verify Poison Isotopic'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

Operating Policies and Principles (OP and Ps) are referenced in the reactor operating license. They contain not only general safety principles, but also define safety parameters and their numerical values for the operation of the nuclear power plant. The event described highlights the difficulties to implement the OP and Ps into detailed purchase orders. In Candu reactors gadolinium nitrate and boric oxide are used as neutron absorbers in the moderator. The concentration of neutron absorbers in the moderator is safety significant because a small change in concentration in coincidence with other failures (e.g. LOCA) can result in a sudden increase of power. To ensure that new shipments of gadolinium nitrate or boric acid meet the required specifications, these must undergo quarantine so that samples could be taken and forwarded for analysis. The chemistry unit of the NPP issued this requirements in a 'note to file'. In the event, two separated purchase orders, one for gadolinium nitrate and one for boric oxide, were placed. The purchase orders did not stipulate the requirements to quarantine, inform the chemistry unit or to analyse samples. They only stated that correct isotopic and chemical purity were required. The gadolinium nitrate as well as the boron oxide were both not quarantined and even the purity was not verified. The chemistry unit felt that a 'note to file' memo was sufficient to ensure that the OP and Ps are met taking into account the low shipment rate and sufficient experiences before. The analysis of the event revealed several causal factors. Four main factors were pointed out: - Work practices, - Resource Management, - Written communication, - Managerial methods. The actions taken after the event focused on the identified deficiencies

An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

2012-01-01

The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... rate is known possibly along with other reliability measures, precise or imprecise. The Lagrange method is used to solve the constrained optimization problem to derive new reliability measures of interest. The obtained results call for an exponential-wise approximation of failure probability density...

Failure to Thrive in Older Persons: A Concept Derived.

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Judith Venglarik; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses how the concept of failure to thrive can be borrowed from pediatrics and redefined for use in caring for older persons, especially institutionalized older persons. Examines issues of undernutrition, declining physical and cognitive functioning, and depression. (Author/ABL)

Failure Waves in Cylindrical Glass Bars

Science.gov (United States)

Cazamias, James U.; Bless, Stephan J.; Marder, Michael P.

1997-07-01

Failure waves, a propagating front separating virgin and comminuted material, have been receiving a fair amount of attention the last couple of years. While most scientists have been looking at failure waves in plate impact geometries, we have conducted a series of experiments on Pyrex bars. In this paper, we present two types of photographic data from a series of tests. A streak camera was used to determine velocities of the failure front as a function of impact stress. A polaroid camera and a flash lamp provide detailed pictures of the actual event. Attempts were made to observe failure waves in amorphous quartz and acrylic.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and development of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients included in the Spanish ABPM registry: the CARDIORISC Event study.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Sierra, Alejandro; Banegas, José R; Segura, Julián; Gorostidi, Manuel; Ruilope, Luis M

2012-04-01

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to conventional BP measurement in predicting outcome, with baseline 24-h, daytime and night-time absolute values, as well as relative nocturnal decline, as powerful determinants of prognosis. We aimed to evaluate ABPM estimates on the appearance of cardiovascular events and mortality in a cohort of high-risk treated hypertensive patients. A total of 2115 treated hypertensive patients with high or very high added risk were evaluated by means of office and 24-h ABPM. Cardiovascular events and mortality were assessed after a median follow-up of 4 years. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients (12.7%) experienced a primary event (nonfatal coronary or cerebrovascular event, heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) and 114 died (45 from cardiovascular causes). In a multiple Cox regression model, and after adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk and office BP, night-time SBP predicted cardiovascular events [hazard ratio for each SD increase: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.59]. Values above 130 mmHg increased the risk by 52% in comparison to values less than 115 mmHg. In addition to clinical determinants of cardiovascular risk and conventional BP, ABPM performed during treatment adds prognostic significance on the development of cardiovascular events in high-risk hypertensive patients. Among different ABPM-derived values, night-time SBP is the most potent predictor of outcome.

Mitochondria-derived superoxide and voltage-gated sodium channels in baroreceptor neurons from chronic heart-failure rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Huiyin; Liu, Jinxu; Zhu, Zhen; Zhang, Libin; Pipinos, Iraklis I; Li, Yu-Long

2012-01-01

Our previous study has shown that chronic heart failure (CHF) reduces expression and activation of voltage-gated sodium (Na(v)) channels in baroreceptor neurons, which are involved in the blunted baroreceptor neuron excitability and contribute to the impairment of baroreflex in the CHF state. The present study examined the role of mitochondria-derived superoxide in the reduced Na(v) channel function in coronary artery ligation-induced CHF rats. CHF decreased the protein expression and activity of mitochondrial complex enzymes and manganese SOD (MnSOD) and elevated the mitochondria-derived superoxide level in the nodose neurons compared with those in sham nodose neurons. Adenoviral MnSOD (Ad.MnSOD) gene transfection (50 multiplicity of infection) into the nodose neurons normalized the MnSOD expression and reduced the elevation of mitochondrial superoxide in the nodose neurons from CHF rats. Ad.MnSOD also partially reversed the reduced protein expression and current density of the Na(v) channels and the suppressed cell excitability (the number of action potential and the current threshold for inducing action potential) in aortic baroreceptor neurons from CHF rats. Data from the present study indicate that mitochondrial dysfunction, including decreased protein expression and activity of mitochondrial complex enzymes and MnSOD and elevated mitochondria-derived superoxide, contributes to the reduced Na(v) channel activation and cell excitability in the aortic baroreceptor neurons in CHF rats.

Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

Science.gov (United States)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.

Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

CERN Document Server

Rubino, Gerardo

2009-01-01

In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

ξ common cause failure model and method for defense effectiveness estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhaohuan

1991-08-01

Two issues have been dealt. One is to develop an event based parametric model called ξ-CCF model. Its parameters are expressed in the fraction of the progressive multiplicities of failure events. By these expressions, the contribution of each multiple failure can be presented more clearly. It can help to select defense tactics against common cause failures. The other is to provide a method which is based on the operational experience and engineering judgement to estimate the effectiveness of defense tactics. It is expressed in terms of reduction matrix for a given tactics on a specific plant in the event by event form. The application of practical example shows that the model in cooperation with the method can simply estimate the effectiveness of defense tactics. It can be easily used by the operators and its application may be extended

International common-cause failure data exchange. ICDE general coding guidelines - Technical note

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johanson, Gunnar; Werner, Wolfgang; Concepcion Capote, Marina; Kreuser, Albert; Rasmuson, Dale; Jonsson, Esther; Pereira Pagan, Begona; Tirira, Jorge; Morris, Ian; Morales, Rosa; Oxberry, Anna; Kreuser, Albert

2004-01-01

Several Member countries of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA) have established the International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange Project (ICDE Project) to encourage multilateral co-operation in the collection and analysis of data relating to Common-Cause Failure (CCF) events. The objectives of the ICDE Project are to: a) Collect and analyse CCF events over the long term so as to better understand such events, their causes, and their prevention; b) Generate qualitative insights into the root causes of CCF events which can then be used to derive approaches or mechanisms for their prevention or for mitigating their consequences; c) Establish a mechanism for the efficient feedback of experience gained in connection with CCF phenomena, including the development of defences against their occurrence, such as indicators for risk based inspections; and d) Record event attributes to facilitate quantification of CCF frequencies when so decided by the Project Working Group. The ICDE Project is envisaged to comprise all possible events of interest, including both complete and partial ICDE events. The ICDE Project will cover the key components of the main safety systems. Presently, the components listed below are included in the ICDE Project. Data have been collected for the six first components in the list: Centrifugal pumps, Diesel generators, Motor operated valves, Safety relief valves/power operated relief valves, Check valves, Batteries, Level measurement, Breakers, Control rod drive assemblies. Others will be added to this list later on. In this component coding guidelines, explanations on the ICDE General coding format are given. The guide reflects present experience with the data format and with the collected data. Further interpretations and clarifications will be added, should they become necessary. For each component analysed in the ICDE project, separate coding guidance is provided in the appendices

Is human failure a stochastic process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, Ed M.

1997-01-01

Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

Determination of Component Failure Modes for a Fire PSA by Using Decision Trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Han, Sang Hoon; Lim, Jae Won

2007-01-01

KAERI developed the method, called a mapping technique, for the quantification of external events PSA models with one top model for an internal events PSA. The mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include initiating events and transfer events of fire, and internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. This year, KAERI is making mapping tables for the one top model for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 fire PSA with previously conducted Fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. A Fire PSA requires a PSA analyst to determine component failure modes affected by a fire. The component failure modes caused by a fire depend on several factors. These several factors are whether components are located at fire initiation and propagation areas or not, fire effects on control and power cables for components, designed failure modes of components, success criteria in a PSA model, etc. Thus, it is not easy to manually determine component failure modes caused by a fire. In this paper, we propose the use of decision trees for the determination of component failure modes affected by a fire and the selection of internal PSA basic events. Section 2 presents the procedure for previously performed the Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 fire PSA and mapping technique. Section 3 presents the process for identification of basic events and decision trees. Section 4 presents the concluding remarks

The application of Petri nets to failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, T.S.; Chiou, S.B.

1997-01-01

Unlike the technique of fault tree analysis that has been widely applied to system failure analysis in reliability engineering, this study presents a Petri net approach to failure analysis. It is essentially a graphical method for describing relations between conditions and events. The use of Petri nets in failure analysis enables to replace logic gate functions in fault trees, efficiently obtain minimal cut sets, and absorb models. It is demonstrated that for failure analysis Petri nets are more efficient than fault trees. In addition, this study devises an alternative; namely, a trapezoidal graph method in order to account for failure scenarios. Examples validate this novel method in dealing with failure analysis

A study of common-mode failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, G.T.; Watson, I.A.

1979-07-01

The purpose of the report is to investigate problems of the identification of the common failure mode (CFM) the reliability models used and the data required for their solution, particularly with regard to automatic protection systems for nuclear reactors. The available literature which was surveyed during the study is quoted and used as a basis for the main work of the study. The type of redundancy system under consideration is initially described and the types of CFM to which these systems are prone are identified before a general definition of the term 'common mode failure' is proposed. The definition and proposed classification system for CMF are based on the common cause of failure, so identifying the primary events. Defences against CFM are included and proposals for an overall strategy and detailed recommendations for design and operation are made. Common mode failures in US nuclear reactor systems, aircraft systems, and other sources including chemical plant systems are surveyed. The data indicates the importance of the human error problem in the causes of CMF in design, maintenance and operation. From a study of the collected data a redundancy sub-system model for CMF is developed which identifies three main categories of failure, non-recurrent engineering design errors, maintenance and test errors, and random interest events. The model proposed allows for the improvement in sub-system reliability where appropriate defences are applied. (author)

The five-point Likert scale for dyspnea can properly assess the degree of pulmonary congestion and predict adverse events in heart failure outpatients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina K. Weber

2014-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Proper assessment of dyspnea is important in patients with heart failure. Our aim was to evaluate the use of the 5-point Likert scale for dyspnea to assess the degree of pulmonary congestion and to determine the prognostic value of this scale for predicting adverse events in heart failure outpatients. METHODS: We undertook a prospective study of outpatients with moderate to severe heart failure. The 5-point Likert scale was applied during regular outpatient visits, along with clinical assessments. Lung ultrasound with ≥15 B-lines and an amino-terminal portion of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP level >1000 pg/mL were used as a reference for pulmonary congestion. The patients were then assessed every 30 days during follow-up to identify adverse clinical outcomes. RESULTS: We included 58 patients (65.5% male, age 43.5±11 years with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 27±6%. In total, 29.3% of these patients had heart failure with ischemic etiology. Additionally, pulmonary congestion, as diagnosed by lung ultrasound, was present in 58% of patients. A higher degree of dyspnea (3 or 4 points on the 5-point Likert scale was significantly correlated with a higher number of B-lines (p = 0.016. Patients stratified into Likert = 3-4 were at increased risk of admission compared with those in class 1-2 after adjusting for age, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association functional class and levels of NT-proBNP >1000 pg/mL (HR = 4.9, 95% CI 1.33-18.64, p = 0.017. CONCLUSION: In our series, higher baseline scores on the 5-point Likert scale were related to pulmonary congestion and were independently associated with adverse events during follow-up. This simple clinical tool can help to identify patients who are more likely to decompensate and whose treatment should be intensified.

Relating derived relations as a model of analogical reasoning: reaction times and event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

2005-11-01

The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as chalk is to cheese") derived relational responding, in both speed-contingent and speed-noncontingent conditions. Experiment 2 examined the event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with these two response patterns. Both experiments showed similar-similar responding to be significantly faster than different-different responding. Experiment 2 revealed significant differences between the waveforms of the two response patterns in the left-hemispheric prefrontal regions; different-different waveforms were significantly more negative than similar-similar waveforms. The behavioral and neurophysiological data support the RFT prediction that, all things being equal, similar-similar responding is relationally "simpler" than, and functionally distinct from, different-different analogical responding. The ERP data were fully consistent with findings in the neurocognitive literature on analogy. These findings strengthen the validity of the RFT model of analogical reasoning and supplement the behavior-analytic approach to analogy based on the relating of derived relations.

ICDE project report on collection and analysis of common-cause failures of emergency diesel generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-02-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of common cause failures (CCF) of emergency diesel generators (EDG). The data studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database, to which several countries have submitted CCF event data. The data span a period from 1982 through 1997. The purpose of the ICDE is to allow multiple countries to collaborate and exchange CCF data to enhance the quality of risk analyses that include CCF modeling. Because CCF events are typically rare events, most countries do not experience enough CCF events to perform meaningful analyses. Data combined from several countries, however, yields sufficient data for more rigorous analyses. This report is the result of an in-depth review of the EDG events and presents several insights about them. The objective of this document is to look beyond the CCF parameter estimates that can be obtained from the CCF data, to gain further understanding of why CCF events occur and what measures may be taken to prevent, or at least mitigate the effect of, EDG CCF events. The report presents details of the ICDE project, a quantitative presentation of the EDG events, and a discussion of some engineering aspects of the events. (authors)

Anticoagulant therapy and outcomes in patients with prior or acute heart failure and acute coronary syndromes: Insights from the APixaban for PRevention of Acute ISchemic Events 2 trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornel, Jan H; Lopes, Renato D; James, Stefan; Stevens, Susanna R; Neely, Megan L; Liaw, Danny; Miller, Julie; Mohan, Puneet; Amerena, John; Raev, Dimitar; Huo, Yong; Urina-Triana, Miguel; Gallegos Cazorla, Alex; Vinereanu, Dragos; Fridrich, Viliam; Harrington, Robert A; Wallentin, Lars; Alexander, John H

2015-04-01

Clinical outcomes and the effects of oral anticoagulants among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and either a history of or acute heart failure (HF) are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the relationship between prior HF or acute HF complicating an index ACS event and subsequent clinical outcomes and the efficacy and safety of apixaban compared with placebo in these populations. High-risk patients were randomly assigned post-ACS to apixaban 5.0 mg or placebo twice daily. Median follow-up was 8 (4-12) months. The primary outcome was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The main safety outcome was thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding. Heart failure was reported in 2,995 patients (41%), either as prior HF (2,076 [28%]) or acute HF (2,028 [27%]). Patients with HF had a very high baseline risk and were more often managed medically. Heart failure was associated with a higher rate of the primary outcome (prior HF: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.42-2.10, P acute HF: adjusted HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.35-2.01, P acute HF: adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.82-3.50). Patients with acute HF also had significantly higher rates of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding (prior HF: adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.65-2.27, P = .54, acute HF: adjusted HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.08, P = .04). There was no statistical evidence of a differential effect of apixaban on clinical events or bleeding in patients with or without prior HF; however, among patients with acute HF, there were numerically fewer events with apixaban than placebo (14.8 vs 19.3, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-1.01, interaction P = .13), a trend that was not seen in patients with prior HF or no HF. In high-risk patients post-ACS, both prior and acute HFs are associated with an increased risk of subsequent clinical events. Apixaban did not significantly reduce clinical events and increased bleeding in patients with and without HF; however, there was a tendency toward fewer clinical

Economic impact of heart failure according to the effects of kidney failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sicras Mainar, Antoni; Navarro Artieda, Ruth; Ibáñez Nolla, Jordi

2015-01-01

To evaluate the use of health care resources and their cost according to the effects of kidney failure in heart failure patients during 2-year follow-up in a population setting. Observational retrospective study based on a review of medical records. The study included patients ≥ 45 years treated for heart failure from 2008 to 2010. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of KF. Main outcome variables were comorbidity, clinical status (functional class, etiology), metabolic syndrome, costs, and new cases of cardiovascular events and kidney failure. The cost model included direct and indirect health care costs. Statistical analysis included multiple regression models. The study recruited 1600 patients (prevalence, 4.0%; mean age 72.4 years; women, 59.7%). Of these patients, 70.1% had hypertension, 47.1% had dyslipidemia, and 36.2% had diabetes mellitus. We analyzed 433 patients (27.1%) with kidney failure and 1167 (72.9%) without kidney failure. Patients with kidney failure were associated with functional class III-IV (54.1% vs 40.8%) and metabolic syndrome (65.3% vs 51.9%, P<.01). The average unit cost was €10,711.40. The corrected cost in the presence of kidney failure was €14,868.20 vs €9,364.50 (P=.001). During follow-up, 11.7% patients developed ischemic heart disease, 18.8% developed kidney failure, and 36.1% developed heart failure exacerbation. Comorbidity associated with heart failure is high. The presence of kidney failure increases the use of health resources and leads to higher costs within the National Health System. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Albania’s Transformation since 1997: Successes and Failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jusufi Islam

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In 1997 Albania experienced a collapse of order and widespread violence, which resulted in a situation where the government was overthrown and some 2,000 people were killed. The 1997 disorder came as a result of the collapse of fraudulent financial pyramid schemes that had all the features of a war-like economic structure. During the 1997 events, large-scale confiscation and stealing of state assets occurred. Albania’s transitional period from communism to democracy, which began in 1990, led to the establishment of new structures for profiting from the country’s resources. Some of these political and economic structures, in the aftermath of the 1997 events, disappeared and others, including their structural effects, persist and have had an impact on the country’s political stability and economic progress. Today, both the successes and failures of the country are assessed based on the progress that the country has made since the 1997 events. The paper analyses the 1997 events and the transformation of Albania’s political and economic structures between 1997 and 2016, considering both achievements and failures. It looks at how the country has dealt with the post-1997 peace-building and development agenda from the perspective of it being a success. It looks at the factors that led to state failure in 1997 and at the factors that continue and have generated a path dependency to the current political context of the country. Although a lot has been written concerning the 1997 events, very little analysis has been conducted concerning what it means from the perspective of research on state failure. In this context, the proposed paper seeks to offer Albania as a case study example of a transformation process, from the uprising to the current situation, which is characterized as a mixture of successes and failures. The belief is that the proposed paper will point to some lessons learned for the strategies directed at the transformation processes.

Spacecraft electrical power subsystem: Failure behavior, reliability, and multi-state failure analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, So Young; Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2012-01-01

This article investigates the degradation and failure behavior of spacecraft electrical power subsystem (EPS) on orbit. First, this work provides updated statistical reliability and multi-state failure analyses of spacecraft EPS and its different constituents, namely the batteries, the power distribution, and the solar arrays. The EPS is shown to suffer from infant mortality and to be a major driver of spacecraft unreliability. Over 25% of all spacecraft failures are the result of EPS failures. As a result, satellite manufacturers may wish to pursue targeted improvement to this subsystem, either through better testing or burn-in procedures, better design or parts selection, or additional redundancy. Second, this work investigates potential differences in the EPS degradation and failure behavior for spacecraft in low earth orbits (LEO) and geosynchronous orbits (GEO). This analysis was motivated by the recognition that the power/load cycles and the space environment are significantly different in LEO and GEO, and as such, they may result in different failure behavior for the EPS in these two types of orbits. The results indicate, and quantify the extent to which, the EPS fails differently in LEO and GEO, both in terms of frequency and severity of failure events. A casual summary of the findings can be stated as follows: the EPS fails less frequently but harder (with fatal consequences to the spacecraft) in LEO than in GEO.

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Hyun-Ho; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Il-Yoon; Cho, Hyo-Nam; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2006-01-01

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures. Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach

An empirical study on the human error recovery failure probability when using soft controls in NPP advanced MCRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Inseok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Jung, Wondea; Seong, Poong Hyun

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Many researchers have tried to understand human recovery process or step. • Modeling human recovery process is not sufficient to be applied to HRA. • The operation environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed by adopting new HSIs. • Recovery failure probability in a soft control operation environment is investigated. • Recovery failure probability here would be important evidence for expert judgment. - Abstract: It is well known that probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) today consider not just hardware failures and environmental events that can impact upon risk, but also human error contributions. Consequently, the focus on reliability and performance management has been on the prevention of human errors and failures rather than the recovery of human errors. However, the recovery of human errors is as important as the prevention of human errors and failures for the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs). For this reason, many researchers have tried to find a human recovery process or step. However, modeling the human recovery process is not sufficient enough to be applied to human reliability analysis (HRA), which requires human error and recovery probabilities. In this study, therefore, human error recovery failure probabilities based on predefined human error modes were investigated by conducting experiments in the operation mockup of advanced/digital main control rooms (MCRs) in NPPs. To this end, 48 subjects majoring in nuclear engineering participated in the experiments. In the experiments, using the developed accident scenario based on tasks from the standard post trip action (SPTA), the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), and predominant soft control tasks, which are derived from the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and the excess steam demand event (ESDE), all error detection and recovery data based on human error modes were checked with the performance sheet and the statistical analysis of error recovery/detection was then

Human reliability analysis of dependent events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swain, A.D.; Guttmann, H.E.

1977-01-01

In the human reliability analysis in WASH-1400, the continuous variable of degree of interaction among human events was approximated by selecting four points on this continuum to represent the entire continuum. The four points selected were identified as zero coupling (i.e., zero dependence), complete coupling (i.e., complete dependence), and two intermediate points--loose coupling (a moderate level of dependence) and tight coupling (a high level of dependence). The paper expands the WASH-1400 treatment of common mode failure due to the interaction of human activities. Mathematical expressions for the above four levels of dependence are derived for parallel and series systems. The psychological meaning of each level of dependence is illustrated by examples, with probability tree diagrams to illustrate the use of conditional probabilities resulting from the interaction of human actions in nuclear power plant tasks

Rationale and Design of the First Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial with Allogeneic Adipose Tissue-Derived Stromal Cell Therapy in Patients with Ischemic Heart Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kastrup, Jens; Schou, Morten; Gustafsson, Ida

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart failure (IHF) has a poor prognosis in spite of optimal therapy. We have established a new allogeneic Cardiology Stem Cell Centre adipose-derived stromal cell (CSCC_ASC) product from healthy donors. It is produced without animal products, in closed bioreactor systems...

Creep-Fatigue Failure Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Holdsworth, Stuart

2015-01-01

Failure diagnosis invariably involves consideration of both associated material condition and the results of a mechanical analysis of prior operating history. This Review focuses on these aspects with particular reference to creep-fatigue failure diagnosis. Creep-fatigue cracking can be due to a spectrum of loading conditions ranging from pure cyclic to mainly steady loading with infrequent off-load transients. These require a range of mechanical analysis approaches, a number of which are reviewed. The microstructural information revealing material condition can vary with alloy class. In practice, the detail of the consequent cracking mechanism(s) can be camouflaged by oxidation at high temperatures, although the presence of oxide on fracture surfaces can be used to date events leading to failure. Routine laboratory specimen post-test examination is strongly recommended to characterise the detail of deformation and damage accumulation under known and well-controlled loading conditions to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of failure diagnosis. PMID:28793676

Data collection on component malfunctions and failures of JET ICRH system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinna, T.; Cambi, G.

2007-01-01

The objective of the activity was to collect and analyse data coming out from operating experiences gained in the Joint European Torus (JET) for the Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system in order to enrich the data collection on failures of components used in fusion facilities. Alarms/Failures and malfunctions occurred in the years of operations from March 1996 to November 2005, including information on failure modes and, where possible, causes of the failures, have been identified. Beyond information on failures and alarms events, also data related to crowbar events have been collected. About 3400 events classified as alarms or failures related to specific components or sub-systems were identified by analysing the 25 hand-written logbooks made available by the ICRH operation staff. Information about the JET pulses in which the ICRH system was operated has been extracted from the tick sheets covering the whole considered time interval. 20 hand written tick sheets cover the period from March 1996 to middle May 2003, while tick sheets recorded as excel files cover the period from May 2003 to November 2005. By analysing the tick sheets it results that the ICRH was operated during about 12000 plasma pulses. Main statistical values, such as rates of alarms/failures and corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals, have been estimated. Failure rates of systems and components have been evaluated both with regard to the ICRH operation pulses and operating days (days in which at least one ICRH module was requested to operate). Failure probabilities on demand have been evaluated with regard to number of pulses operated. Some of the results are the following: - The highest number of alarms/failures (1243) appears to be related to Erratic /No-output of the Instrumentation and Control (I and C) apparatus, followed by faults (829) of the Tetrode circuits, by faults (466) of the High Voltage Power Supply system and by faults (428) of the Tuning elements. - The

Consequences assessment for fuel channel failure with consequential moderator drain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahba, N.N.; Bayoumi, M.H.

2002-01-01

This paper documents the consequences of spontaneous pressure tube/consequential calandria tube rupture followed by the ejection of end fittings (as a result of guillotine failure of pressure tube) leading to the drain of the moderator. The event is postulated to occur in conjunction with an independent failure of Emergency Coolant Injection System (ECIS). The results of the detailed consequence assessments are used to propose a course of action to mitigate the consequences of such an event. A methodology based on a lumped-parameter model was developed to assess the consequences of the postulated event. (author)

Tuning critical failure with viscoelasticity: How aftershocks inhibit criticality in an analytical mean field model of fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.

2017-12-01

The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible of deformation. Avalanche models involving critical failure have determined universality classes in different systems: from slip events in crystalline and amorphous materials to the jamming of granular media or the fracture of brittle materials. However, not all empirical failure processes exhibit the trademarks of critical failure. As an example, the statistical properties of ultrasonic acoustic events recorded during the failure of porous brittle materials are stationary, except for variations in the activity rate that can be interpreted in terms of aftershock and foreshock activity (J. Baró et al., PRL 2013).The rheological properties of materials introduce dissipation, usually reproduced in atomistic models as a hardening of the coarse-grained elements of the system. If the hardening is associated to a relaxation process the same mechanism is able to generate temporal correlations. We report the analytic solution of a mean field fracture model exemplifying how criticality and temporal correlations are tuned by transient hardening. We provide a physical meaning to the conceptual model by deriving the constitutive equation from the explicit representation of the transient hardening in terms of a generalized viscoelasticity model. The rate of 'aftershocks' is controlled by the temporal evolution of the viscoelastic creep. At the quasistatic limit, the moment release is invariant to rheology. Therefore, the lack of criticality is explained by the increase of the activity rate close to failure, i.e. 'foreshocks'. Finally, the avalanche propagation can be reinterpreted as a pure mathematical problem in terms of a stochastic counting process. The statistical properties depend only on the distance to a critical point, which is universal for any

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are

Amniotic-fluid-derived mesenchymal stem cells overexpressing interleukin-1 receptor antagonist improve fulminant hepatic failure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Bao Zheng

Full Text Available Uncontrolled hepatic immunoactivation is regarded as the primary pathological mechanism of fulminant hepatic failure (FHF. The major acute-phase mediators associated with FHF, including IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α, impair the regeneration of liver cells and stem cell grafts. Amniotic-fluid-derived mesenchymal stem cells (AF-MSCs have the capacity, under specific conditions, to differentiate into hepatocytes. Interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra plays an anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic role in acute and chronic inflammation, and has been used in many experimental and clinical applications. In the present study, we implanted IL-1Ra-expressing AF-MSCs into injured liver via the portal vein, using D-galactosamine-induced FHF in a rat model. IL-1Ra expression, hepatic injury, liver regeneration, cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, and animal survival were assessed after cell transplantation. Our results showed that AF-MSCs over-expressing IL-1Ra prevented liver failure and reduced mortality in rats with FHF. These animals also exhibited improved liver function and increased survival rates after injection with these cells. Using green fluorescent protein as a marker, we demonstrated that the engrafted cells and their progeny were incorporated into injured livers and produced albumin. This study suggests that AF-MSCs genetically modified to over-express IL-1Ra can be implanted into the injured liver to provide a novel therapeutic approach to the treatment of FHF.

Debugging Nondeterministic Failures in Linux Programs through Replay Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shakaiba Majeed

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Reproducing a failure is the first and most important step in debugging because it enables us to understand the failure and track down its source. However, many programs are susceptible to nondeterministic failures that are hard to reproduce, which makes debugging extremely difficult. We first address the reproducibility problem by proposing an OS-level replay system for a uniprocessor environment that can capture and replay nondeterministic events needed to reproduce a failure in Linux interactive and event-based programs. We then present an analysis method, called replay analysis, based on the proposed record and replay system to diagnose concurrency bugs in such programs. The replay analysis method uses a combination of static analysis, dynamic tracing during replay, and delta debugging to identify failure-inducing memory access patterns that lead to concurrency failure. The experimental results show that the presented record and replay system has low-recording overhead and hence can be safely used in production systems to catch rarely occurring bugs. We also present few concurrency bug case studies from real-world applications to prove the effectiveness of the proposed bug diagnosis framework.

Data needs for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Rasmuson, D.; Whitehead, D.

1990-01-01

The procedures guide for common cause failure analysis published jointly by USNRC and EPRI requires a detailed historical event analysis. Recent work on the further development of the cause-defense picture of common cause failures introduced in that guide identified the information that is necessary to perform the detailed analysis in an objective manner. This paper summarizes these information needs

Piping failures in United States nuclear power plants 1961-1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bush, S.H.; Do, M.J.; Slavich, A.L.; Chockie, A.D.

1996-01-01

Over 1500 reported piping failures were identified and summarized based on an extensive review of tens of thousands of event reports that have been submitted to the US regulatory agencies over the last 35 years. The data base contains only piping failures; failures in vessels, pumps, valves and steam generators or any cracks that were not through-wall are not included. It was observed that there has been a marked decrease in the number of failures after 1983 for almost all sizes of pipes. This is likely due to the changes in the reporting requirements at that time and the corrective actions taken by utilities to minimize fatigue failures of small lines and IGSCC in BWRs. One failure mechanism that continues to occur is erosion-corrosion, which accounts for most of the ruptures reported and probably is responsible for the absence of downward trends in ruptures. Fatigue-vibration is also a significant contributor to piping failures. However, most of such events occur in lines approx. one inch or less in diameter. Together, erosion-corrosion and fatigue-vibration account for over 43 per cent of the failures. The overwhelming majority of failures have been leaks, over half the failures occurred in pipes with a diameter of one inch or less. Included in the report is a listing of the number of welds in various systems in LWRs

Destructive Single-Event Effects in Diodes

Science.gov (United States)

Casey, Megan C.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Campola, Michael J.; Wilcox, Edward P.; Phan, Anthony M.; Label, Kenneth A.

2017-01-01

In this work, we discuss the observed single-event effects in a variety of types of diodes. In addition, we conduct failure analysis on several Schottky diodes that were heavy-ion irradiated. High- and low-magnitude optical microscope images, infrared camera images, and scanning electron microscope images are used to identify and describe the failure locations.

Emotions in memories of success and failure: a cultural perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Meng; Cross, Susan E

2011-08-01

Americans and Chinese tend to behave differently in response to success and failure: Americans tend to persist on a task after success, whereas Chinese tend to persist after failure. This study examined whether cultural differences in emotional reactions to success and failure account for these differences. American and Chinese students recalled personal success and failure events, evaluated the primary emotion evoked by the event, and responded to measures of concerns, appraisals, and willingness to try the same task again. Americans were more likely than Chinese to report that their success enhanced their self-esteem. Chinese were more likely than Americans to estimate that their success would make others jealous and enhance others' respect for their family. Chinese, compared to Americans, viewed failures as more tolerable, as less problematic for their goals, and as less damaging to their self-esteem. Culture moderated the relations between these components of emotion and willingness to try the task again. In short, culturally framed emotional reactions to success and failure result in different patterns of anticipated self-regulation. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Control rod trip failures; Salem 1, the cause, response, and potential fixes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.; Luckas, W.J.

1984-01-01

This chapter presents a systems and reliability analysis of recent nuclear reactor control rod failure-to-trip (or scram) events that have been experienced in the US commercial nuclear industry. The operational factors of hardware, procedures, and human error are considered in the analysis of transients without scram. The 1980 Browns Ferry 3 scram system failure is analyzed to contrast the two 1983 Salem 1 events. The details of the Salem control rod failure to trip are investigated and used to calculate the reactor protection system unavailabilities. The internal reactor trip breaker logic is reviewed as related to the Westinghouse DB-50 breaker application. The impact of test and maintenance on system challenges is discussed. It is concluded that although the failure to trip or scram represents a single class of initiators, the actual events of each transient are operationally unique and require individual human responses

Strategies to Automatically Derive a Process Model from a Configurable Process Model Based on Event Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Arriagada-Benítez

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Configurable process models are frequently used to represent business workflows and other discrete event systems among different branches of large organizations: they unify commonalities shared by all branches and describe their differences, at the same time. The configuration of such models is usually done manually, which is challenging. On the one hand, when the number of configurable nodes in the configurable process model grows, the size of the search space increases exponentially. On the other hand, the person performing the configuration may lack the holistic perspective to make the right choice for all configurable nodes at the same time, since choices influence each other. Nowadays, information systems that support the execution of business processes create event data reflecting how processes are performed. In this article, we propose three strategies (based on exhaustive search, genetic algorithms and a greedy heuristic that use event data to automatically derive a process model from a configurable process model that better represents the characteristics of the process in a specific branch. These strategies have been implemented in our proposed framework and tested in both business-like event logs as recorded in a higher educational enterprise resource planning system and a real case scenario involving a set of Dutch municipalities.

Seeing failure in your life: Imagery perspective determines whether self-esteem shapes reactions to recalled and imagined failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Libby, Lisa K; Valenti, Greta; Pfent, Alison; Eibach, Richard P

2011-12-01

The present research reveals that when it comes to recalling and imagining failure in one's life, changing how one looks at the event can change its impact on well-being; however, the nature of the effect depends on an aspect of one's self-concept, namely, self-esteem. Five studies measured or manipulated the visual perspective (internal first-person vs. external third-person) individuals used to mentally image recalled or imagined personal failures. It has been proposed that imagery perspective determines whether people's reactions to an event are shaped bottom-up by concrete features of the event (first-person) or top-down by their self-concept (third-person; L. K. Libby & R. P. Eibach, 2011b). Evidence suggests that differences in the self-concepts of individuals with low and high self-esteem (LSEs and HSEs) are responsible for self-esteem differences in reaction to failure, leading LSEs to have more negative thoughts and feelings about themselves (e.g., M. H. Kernis, J. Brockner, & B. S. Frankel, 1989). Thus, the authors predicted, and found, that low self-esteem was associated with greater overgeneralization--operationalized as negativity in accessible self-knowledge and feelings of shame--only when participants had pictured failure from the third-person perspective and not from the first-person. Further, picturing failure from the third-person, rather than first-person, perspective, increased shame and the negativity of accessible knowledge among LSEs, whereas it decreased shame among HSEs. Results help to distinguish between different theoretical accounts of how imagery perspective functions and have implications for the study of top-down and bottom-up influences on self-judgment and emotion, as well as for the role of perspective and abstraction in coping.

Structures for common-cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, J.K.

1981-01-01

Common-cause failure methodology and terminology have been reviewed and structured to provide a systematical basis for addressing and developing models and methods for quantification. The structure is based on (1) a specific set of definitions, (2) categories based on the way faults are attributable to a common cause, and (3) classes based on the time of entry and the time of elimination of the faults. The failure events are then characterized by their likelihood or frequency and the average residence time. The structure provides a basis for selecting computational models, collecting and evaluating data and assessing the importance of various failure types, and for developing effective defences against common-cause failure. The relationships of this and several other structures are described

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2010-06-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-08-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-01-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with 'generic' component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance

Benchmarking Simulation of Long Term Station Blackout Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Kyum; Lee, John C.; Fynan, Douglas A.; Lee, John C.

2013-01-01

The importance of passive cooling systems has emerged since the SBO events. Turbine-driven auxiliary feedwater (TD-AFW) system is the only passive cooling system for steam generators (SGs) in current PWRs. During SBO events, all alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) are interrupted and then the water levels of steam generators become high. In this case, turbine blades could be degraded and cannot cool down the SGs anymore. To prevent this kind of degradations, improved TD-AFW system should be installed for current PWRs, especially OPR 1000 plants. A long-term station blackout (LTSBO) scenario based on the improved TD-AFW system has been benchmarked as a reference input file. The following task is a safety analysis in order to find some important parameters causing the peak cladding temperature (PCT) to vary. This task has been initiated with the benchmarked input deck applying to the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) Report. The point of the improved TD-AFW is to control the water level of the SG by using the auxiliary battery charged by a generator connected with the auxiliary turbine. However, this battery also could be disconnected from the generator. To analyze the uncertainties of the failure of the auxiliary battery, the simulation for the time-dependent failure of the TD-AFW has been performed. In addition to the cases simulated in the paper, some valves (e. g., pressurizer safety valve), available during SBO events in the paper, could be important parameters to assess uncertainties in PCTs estimated. The results for these parameters will be included in a future study in addition to the results for the leakage of the RCP seals. After the simulation of several transient cases, alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm will be used to derive functional relationships between the PCT and several system parameters

Estimation of average hazardous-event-frequency for allocation of safety-integrity levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Misumi, Y.; Sato, Y.

1999-01-01

One of the fundamental concepts of the draft international standard, IEC 61508, is target failure measures to be allocated to Electric/Electronic/Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems, i.e. Safety Integrity Levels. The Safety Integrity Levels consist of four discrete probabilistic levels for specifying the safety integrity requirements or the safety functions to be allocated to Electric/Electronic/Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems. In order to select the Safety Integrity Levels the draft standard classifies Electric/Electronic/Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems into two modes of operation using demand frequencies only. It is not clear which modes of operation should be applied to Electric/Electronic/Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems taking into account the demand-state probability and the spurious demand frequency. It is essential for the allocation of Safety Integrity Levels that generic algorithms be derived by involving possible parameters, which make it possible to model the actuality of real systems. The present paper addresses this issue. First of all, the overall system including Electric/Electronic/programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems is described using a simplified fault-tree. Then, the relationships among demands, demand-states and proof-tests are studied. Overall systems are classified into two groups: a non-demand-state-at-proof-test system which includes both repairable and non-repairable demand states and a constant-demand-frequency system. The new ideas such as a demand-state, spurious demand-state, mean time between detections, rates of d-failure and h-failure, and an h/d ratio are introduced in order to make the Safety Integrity Levels and modes of operation generic and comprehensive. Finally, the overall system is simplified and modeled by fault-trees using Priority-AND gates. At the same time the assumptions for modeling are described. Generic algorithms to estimate hazardous-event

Defense-in-depth and diversity evaluation to cope with design bases events concurrent with common mode failure in digital plant protection system for KNGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Lee Cheol; Park, Chan Eok; Jin, Choi Chul; Tae, Seo Jong

2001-01-01

The Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR) has been evolved to adopt an advanced design feature, a digital Plant Protection System (PPS) as an effort of enhancing reliability and safety of the plant. Although the digital PPS can be designed with high reliability, it is considered to be vulnerable to the Common Mode Failure (CMF) in the system software resulting in a total loss of the built-in hardware redundancy. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation has been performed to demonstrate the intrinsic capability of the KNGR design in coping with the design basis events concurrent with CMF in the digital PPS. Instead of the conservative bounding analysis methodology, a best-estimate analysis methodology has been developed and utilized since the design basis events accompanied by CMF in the digital PPS are categorized as beyond design bases events. A variety of diverse means such as Alternate Protection System (APS), process control systems, and timely operator actions have been verified to be effective in mitigating the design basis events with CMF in the digital PPS

Incidence, Predictors, and Outcomes Associated With Hypotensive Episodes Among Heart Failure Patients Receiving Sacubitril/Valsartan or Enalapril: The PARADIGM-HF Trial (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure).

Science.gov (United States)

Vardeny, Orly; Claggett, Brian; Kachadourian, Jessica; Pearson, Scott M; Desai, Akshay S; Packer, Milton; Rouleau, Jean; Zile, Michael R; Swedberg, Karl; Lefkowitz, Martin; Shi, Victor; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2018-04-01

In PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure), heart failure treatment with sacubitril/valsartan reduced the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization compared with enalapril but resulted in more symptomatic hypotension. Concern on hypotension may be limiting use of sacubitril/valsartan in appropriate patients. We characterized patients in PARADIGM-HF by whether they reported hypotension during study run-in periods (enalapril, followed by sacubitril/valsartan) and after randomization and assessed whether hypotension modified the efficacy of sacubitril/valsartan. Of the 10 513 patients entering the enalapril run-in, 136 (1.3%) experienced hypotension and 93 (68%) were unable to continue to the next phase; of 9419 patients entering the sacubitril/valsartan run-in period, 228 (2.4%) patients experienced hypotension and 51% were unable to successfully complete the run-in. After randomization, 388 (9.2%) participants had 501 hypotensive events with enalapril, and 588 (14.0%) participants had 803 hypotensive events with sacubitril/valsartan ( P sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril as those without hypotensive events ( P interaction>0.90). Hypotension was more common with sacubitril/valsartan relative to enalapril in PARADIGM-HF but did not differentially affect permanent discontinuations. Patients with hypotension during run-in derived similar benefit from sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril as those who did not experience hypotension. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Identification and selection of initiating events for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the current approaches used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to identify and select accident initiating events for study in either probabilistic safety analysis or PRA. Current methods directly apply to fusion facilities as well as other types of industries, such as chemical processing and nuclear fission. These identification and selection methods include the Master Logic Diagram, historical document review, system level Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and others. A combination of the historical document review, such as Safety Analysis Reports and fusion safety studies, and the Master Logic Diagram with appropriate quality assurance reviews, is suggested for standardizing US fusion PRA effects. A preliminary set of generalized initiating events applicable to fusion facilities derived from safety document review is presented as a framework to start from for the historical document review and Master Logic Diagram approach. Fusion designers should find this list useful for their design reviews. 29 refs., 2 tabs

Identification and selection of initiating events for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the current approaches used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to identify and select accident initiating events for study in either probabilistic safety analysis or PRA. Current methods directly apply to fusion facilities as well as other types of industries, such as chemical processing and nuclear fission. These identification and selection methods include the Master Logic Diagram, historical document review, system level Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and others. A combination of the historical document review, such as Safety Analysis Reports and fusion safety studies, and the Master Logic Diagram with appropriate quality assurance reviews, is suggested for standardizing U.S. fusion PRA efforts. A preliminary set of generalized initiating events applicable to fusion facilities derived from safety document review is presented as a framework to start from for the historical document review and Master Logic Diagram approach. Fusion designers should find this list useful for their design reviews. 29 refs., 1 tab

International Context Regarding Application of Single Failure Criterion For New Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basic, I.; Vrbanic, I.

2016-01-01

The Single Failure Criterion (SFC) ensures reliable performance of safety systems in nuclear power plants in response to design basis initiating events. The SFC, basically, requires that the system must be capable of performing its task in the presence of any single failure. The capability of a system to perform its design function in the presence of a single failure could be threatened by a common cause failure such as a fire, flood, or human intervention or by any other cause with potential to induce multiple failures. When applied to plant's response to a postulated design-basis initiating event, the SFC usually represents a requirement that particular safety system performs its safety functions as designed under the conditions which can include: All failures caused by a single failure; All identifiable but non-detectable failures, including those in the non-tested components; All failures and spurious system actions that cause (or are caused by) the postulated event. The paper provides an overview of the regulatory design requirements for new reactors addressing Single Failure Criterion (SFC) in accordance to international best-practices, particularly considering the SCF relation to in-service testing, maintenance, repair, inspection and monitoring of systems, structures and components important to safety. The paper discusses the comparison of the current SFC requirements and guidelines published by the IAEA, WENRA, EUR and nuclear regulators in the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Korea, Japan, China and Finland. Also, paper addresses the application of SFC requirements in design; considerations for testing, maintenance, repair, inspection and monitoring; allowable equipment outage times; exemptions to SFC requirements; and analysis for SFC application to two-, three- and four-train systems and applications for small and modular reactors. (author).

Failure to Follow Written Procedures

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

Most tasks in aviation have a mandated written procedure to be followed specifically under the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 14, Section 43.13(a). However, the incidence of Failure to Follow Procedure (FFP) events continues to be a major iss...

Analysis of failures in concrete containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno-Gonzalez, A.

1989-09-01

The function of Containment, in an accident event, is to avoid the release of radioactive substances into the surroundings. Containment failure, therefore, is defined as the appearance of leak paths to the external environment. These leak paths may appear either as a result of loss of leaktightness due to degradation of design conditions or structural failure with containment material break. This document is a survey of the state of the art of Containment Failure Analysis. It gives a detailed description of all failure mechanisms, indicating all the possible failure modes and their causes, right from failure resulting from degradation of the materials to structural failure and linear breake failure. Following the description of failure modes, possible failure criteria are identified, with special emphasis on structural failure criteria. These criteria have been obtained not only from existing codes but also from the latest experimental results. A chapter has been dedicated exclusively to failure criteria in conventional structures, for the purpose of evaluating the possibility of application to the case of containment. As the structural behaviour of the containment building is very complex, it is not possible to define failure through a single parameter. It is therefore advisable to define a methodology for containment failure analysis which could be applied to a particular containment. This methodology should include prevailing load and material conditions together with the behaviour of complex conditions such as the liner-anchorage-cracked concrete interaction

Reliability analysis of Markov history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Shijia; Zeng, Zhiguo; Cui, Lirong; Kang, Rui

2017-01-01

Markov history-dependent repairable systems refer to the Markov repairable systems in which some states are changeable and dependent on recent evolutional history of the system. In practice, many Markov history-dependent repairable systems are subjected to neglected failures, i.e., some failures do not affect system performances if they can be repaired promptly. In this paper, we develop a model based on the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to describe the history-dependent behavior and the effect of neglected failures on the Markov history-dependent repairable systems. Based on the developed model, instantaneous and steady-state availabilities are derived to characterize the reliability of the system. Four reliability-related time distributions, i.e., distribution for the k th working period, distribution for the k th failure period, distribution for the real working time in an effective working period, distribution for the neglected failure time in an effective working period, are also derived to provide a more comprehensive description of the system's reliability. Thanks to the power of the theory of aggregated stochastic processes, closed-form expressions are obtained for all the reliability indexes and time distributions. Finally, the developed indexes and analysis methods are demonstrated by a numerical example. - Highlights: • Markovian history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures is modeled. • Aggregated stochastic processes are used to derive reliability indexes and time distributions. • Closed-form expressions are derived for the considered indexes and distributions.

Correlation model to analyze dependent failures for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.

1985-01-01

A methodology is formulated to study the dependent (correlated) failures of various abnormal events in nuclear power plants. This methodology uses correlation analysis is a means for predicting and quantifying the dependent failures. Appropriate techniques are also developed to incorporate the dependent failure in quantifying fault trees and accident sequences. The uncertainty associated with each estimation in all of the developed techniques is addressed and quantified. To identify the relative importance of the degree of dependency (correlation) among events and to incorporate these dependencies in the quantification phase of PRA, the interdependency between a pair of events in expressed with the aid of the correlation coefficient. For the purpose of demonstrating the methodology, the data base used in the Accident Sequence Precursor Study (ASP) was adopted and simulated to obtain distributions for the correlation coefficients. A computer program entitled Correlation Coefficient Generator (CCG) was developed to generate a distribution for each correlation coefficient. The method of bootstrap technique was employed in the CCG computer code to determine confidence limits of the estimated correlation coefficients. A second computer program designated CORRELATE was also developed to obtain probability intervals for both fault trees and accident sequences with statistically correlated failure data

Periodontitis in Chronic Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Fröhlich, Hanna; Herrmann, Kristina; Franke, Jennifer; Karimi, Alamara; Täger, Tobias; Cebola, Rita; Katus, Hugo A; Zugck, Christian; Frankenstein, Lutz

2016-08-01

Periodontal disease has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. The purpose of our study was to investigate whether a correlation between periodontitis and chronic heart failure exists, as well as the nature of the underlying cause. We enrolled 71 patients (mean age, 54 ± 13 yr; 56 men) who had stable chronic heart failure; all underwent complete cardiologic and dental evaluations. The periodontal screening index was used to quantify the degree of periodontal disease. We compared the findings to those in the general population with use of data from the 4th German Dental Health Survey. Gingivitis, moderate periodontitis, and severe periodontitis were present in 17 (24%), 17 (24%), and 37 (52%) patients, respectively. Severe periodontitis was more prevalent among chronic heart failure patients than in the general population. In contrast, moderate periodontitis was more prevalent in the general population (P periodontal disease was not associated with the cause of chronic heart failure or the severity of heart failure symptoms. Six-minute walking distance was the only independent predictor of severe periodontitis. Periodontal disease is highly prevalent in chronic heart failure patients regardless of the cause of heart failure. Prospective trials are warranted to clarify the causal relationship between both diseases.

Enhanced transfer of terrestrially derived carbon to the atmosphere in a flooding event

Science.gov (United States)

Bianchi, Thomas S.; Garcia-Tigreros, Fenix; Yvon-Lewis, Shari A.; Shields, Michael; Mills, Heath J.; Butman, David; Osburn, Christopher; Raymond, Peter A.; Shank, G. Christopher; DiMarco, Steven F.; Walker, Nan; Kiel Reese, Brandi; Mullins-Perry, Ruth; Quigg, Antonietta; Aiken, George R.; Grossman, Ethan L.

2013-01-01

Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, global climate change, and the sustainability of the Earth's biosphere are great societal concerns for the 21st century. Global climate change has, in part, resulted in a higher frequency of flooding events, which allow for greater exchange between soil/plant litter and aquatic carbon pools. Here we demonstrate that the summer 2011 flood in the Mississippi River basin, caused by extreme precipitation events, resulted in a “flushing” of terrestrially derived dissolved organic carbon (TDOC) to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Data from the lower Atchafalaya and Mississippi rivers showed that the DOC flux to the northern Gulf of Mexico during this flood was significantly higher than in previous years. We also show that consumption of radiocarbon-modern TDOC by bacteria in floodwaters in the lower Atchafalaya River and along the adjacent shelf contributed to northern Gulf shelf waters changing from a net sink to a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere in June and August 2011. This work shows that enhanced flooding, which may or may not be caused by climate change, can result in rapid losses of stored carbon in soils to the atmosphere via processes in aquatic ecosystems.

Effectiveness of infliximab after adalimumab failure in Crohn's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaparro, María; Andreu, Montserrat; Barreiro-de Acosta, Manuel; García-Planella, Esther; Ricart, Elena; Domènech, Eugeni; Esteve, María; Merino, Olga; Nos, Pilar; Peñalva, Mireia; Gisbert, Javier P

2012-10-07

To evaluate the effectiveness of infliximab as a second-line therapy in Crohn's disease patients after adalimumab failure. A historical cohort study in a community-based gastroenterology practice evaluated Crohn's disease patients treated with infliximab (induction plus maintenance) after adalimumab failure. Patients were identified using a large Spanish database (ENEIDA). We included 15 Crohn's disease patients who received infliximab after adalimumab failure. Five patients discontinued adalimumab due to loss of response, 3 due to adverse events and 7 due to partial response. After infliximab therapy was started, all patients who had interrupted adalimumab due to loss of efficacy regained response. All patients who discontinued adalimumab due to adverse events responded to infliximab and maintained this response; one of these patients had an uneventful course on infliximab, but 2 developed adverse events. None of the 7 patients who interrupted adalimumab due to partial response reached remission with infliximab. Switching from adalimumab to infliximab may be useful in patients who develop adverse effects or loss of response, however, the benefit of infliximab in primary nonresponders was not established.

Acute liver failure and acute kidney injury: Definitions, prognosis, and outcome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Włodzimirow, K.A.

2013-01-01

The objective of this thesis was to investigate definitions, prognostic indicators and their association with adverse events, mainly mortality for acute liver failure (ALF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and acute kidney injury (AKI).

A human reliability analysis (HRA) method for identifying and assessing the error of commission (EOC) from a diagnosis failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Yun; Kang, Dae Il

2005-01-01

The study deals with a method for systematically identifying and assessing the EOC events that might be caused from a diagnosis failure or misdiagnosis of the expected events in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants. The method for EOC identification and assessment consists of three steps: analysis of the potential for a diagnosis failure (or misdiagnosis), identification of the EOC events from the diagnosis failure, quantitative assessment of the identified EOC events. As a tool for analysing a diagnosis failure, the MisDiagnosis Tree Analysis (MDTA) technique is proposed with the taxonomy of misdiagnosis causes. Also, the guidance on the identification of EOC events and the classification system and data are given for quantitiative assessment. As an applicaton of the proposed method, the EOCs identification and assessment for Younggwang 3 and 4 plants and their impact on the plant risk were performed. As the result, six events or event sequences were considered for diagnosis failures and about 20 new Human Failure Events (HFEs) involving EOCs were identified. According to the assessment of the risk impact of the identified HFEs, they increase the CDF by 11.4 % of the current CDF value, which corresponds to 10.2 % of the new CDF. The small loss of coolant accident (SLOCA) turned out to be a major contributor to the increase of CDF resulting in 9.2 % increaseof the current CDF.

Letter report seismic shutdown system failure mode and effect analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KECK, R.D.

1999-01-01

The Supply Ventilation System Seismic Shutdown ensures that the 234-52 building supply fans, the dry air process fans and vertical development calciner are shutdown following a seismic event. This evaluates the failure modes and determines the effects of the failure modes

A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic event reliabilities. • It implements the concepts of failure possibilities and fuzzy sets. • Experts evaluate basic event failure possibilities using qualitative words. • Triangular fuzzy numbers mathematically represent qualitative failure possibilities. • It is a very good alternative for conventional reliability approach. - Abstract: Fault tree analysis has been widely utilized as a tool for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. This analysis can be completed only if all basic events of the system fault tree have their quantitative failure rates or failure probabilities. However, it is difficult to obtain those failure data due to insufficient data, environment changing or new components. This study proposes a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of system fault trees whose failure precise probability distributions of their lifetime to failures are not available. It applies the concept of failure possibilities to qualitatively evaluate basic events and the concept of fuzzy sets to quantitatively represent the corresponding failure possibilities. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the actual basic event failure probabilities collected from the operational experiences of the David–Besse design of the Babcock and Wilcox reactor protection system fault tree are used to benchmark the failure probabilities generated by the proposed approach. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy-based reliability approach arises as a suitable alternative for the conventional probabilistic reliability approach when basic events do not have the corresponding quantitative historical failure data for determining their reliability characteristics. Hence, it overcomes the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

49 CFR 214.529 - In-service failure of primary braking system.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false In-service failure of primary braking system. 214... Maintenance Machines and Hi-Rail Vehicles § 214.529 In-service failure of primary braking system. (a) In the event of a total in-service failure of its primary braking system, an on-track roadway maintenance...

Association of hypothyroidism with adverse events in patients with heart failure receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Ajay K; Vegh, Eszter; Orencole, Mary; Miller, Alexandra; Blendea, Dan; Moore, Stephanie; Lewis, Gregory D; Singh, Jagmeet P; Parks, Kimberly A; Heist, E Kevin

2015-05-01

Hypothyroidism is associated with an adverse prognosis in cardiac patients in general and in particular in patients with heart failure (HF). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of hypothyroidism on patients with HF receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Additionally, the impact of level of control of hypothyroidism on risk of adverse events after CRT implantation was also evaluated. We included consecutive patients in whom a CRT device was implanted from April 2004 to April 2010 at our institution with sufficient follow-up data available for analysis; 511 patients were included (age 68.5±12.4 years, women 20.4%); 84 patients with a clinical history of hypothyroidism, on treatment with thyroid hormone repletion or serum thyroid-stimulating hormone level≥5.00 μU/ml, were included in the hypothyroid group. The patients were followed for up to 3 years after implant for a composite end point of hospitalization for HF, left ventricular assist device placement, or heart transplant and cardiac death; 215 composite end point events were noted in this period. In a multivariate model, hypothyroidism (hazard ratio [HR] 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.027 to 2.085, p=0.035), female gender (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.428 to 0.963, p=0.032), and creatinine (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.145 to 1.382, phypothyroidism at baseline developed the composite end point compared with 39.8% of those with euthyroidism (p=0.02). In conclusion, hypothyroidism is associated with a worse prognosis after CRT implantation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation Procedure of Common Cause Failure Parameters for CAFE-PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, M. J.; Han, S. H.

2009-03-01

Detailed common cause failure (CCF) analysis generally needs the data for CCF events from other nuclear power plants because the CCF events rarely occur. Since 2002, KAERI has participated in the international common cause failure data exchange (ICDE) project to get data for CCF events. The operation office of the ICDE project sent about 400 CCF event data for emergency diesel generators, motor operated valves, check valves, pumps, and breakers to KAERI in 2009. However, there was no program available to analyze the ICDE CCF event data. Therefore, we developed the CAFE-PSA (common CAuse Failure Event analysis program for PSA) to estimate CCF parameters by using the ICDE CCF event data. With CAFE-PSA, the CCF events in the ICDE database can be qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The qualitative analysis results of the ICDE CCF data, by using the CAFE-PSA, showed that the major root cause of CCF events, for motor operated valves, check valves, and pumps, was the fault of their internal parts, and that for emergency diesel generators and breakers was the inadequacy of design/manufacture or construction. The quantitative analysis results of the ICDE CCF data, by using the CAFE-PSA, showed that the estimated Alpha Factors of components, mentioned above, were lower than those previously used in the PSA for domestic nuclear power plants, but were higher than those in USNRC 2007 CCF data. Through performing qualitative and quantitative analysis of the ICDE CCF data, by using the CAFE-PSA, a plan for coping with CCF events for design and operation of nuclear power plants can be produced and reasonable values for CCF parameters can be estimated. In addition, it is expected that the technical adequacy of PSA can be improved

Failure Waves in Shock-Compressed Glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanel, G. I.

2006-01-01

The failure wave is a network of cracks that are nucleated on the surface and propagate into the elastically stressed body. It is a mode of catastrophic fracture in an elastically stressed media whose relevance is not limited to impact events. In the paper, main properties of the failure waves are summarized and discussed. It has been shown that the failure wave is really a wave process which is characterized by small increase of the longitudinal stress and corresponding increments of the particle velocity and the density. The propagation velocity of the failure wave is less than the sound speed; it is not directly related to the compressibility but is determined by the crack growth speed. The failure wave is steady if the stress state ahead of it is supported unchanging. In some sense the process is similar to a subsonic combustion wave. Computer simulations based on the phenomenological combustion-like model reproduces well all kinematical aspects of the phenomenon

Signal analysis for failure detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parpaglione, M.C.; Perez, L.V.; Rubio, D.A.; Czibener, D.; D'Attellis, C.E.; Brudny, P.I.; Ruzzante, J.E.

1994-01-01

Several methods for analysis of acoustic emission signals are presented. They are mainly oriented to detection of changes in noisy signals and characterization of higher amplitude discrete pulses or bursts. The aim was to relate changes and events with failure, crack or wear in materials, being the final goal to obtain automatic means of detecting such changes and/or events. Performance evaluation was made using both simulated and laboratory test signals. The methods being presented are the following: 1. Application of the Hopfield Neural Network (NN) model for classifying faults in pipes and detecting wear of a bearing. 2. Application of the Kohonnen and Back Propagation Neural Network model for the same problem. 3. Application of Kalman filtering to determine time occurrence of bursts. 4. Application of a bank of Kalman filters (KF) for failure detection in pipes. 5. Study of amplitude distribution of signals for detecting changes in their shape. 6. Application of the entropy distance to measure differences between signals. (author). 10 refs, 11 figs

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Snow fracture: From micro-cracking to global failure

Science.gov (United States)

Capelli, Achille; Reiweger, Ingrid; Schweizer, Jürg

2017-04-01

Slab avalanches are caused by a crack forming and propagating in a weak layer within the snow cover, which eventually causes the detachment of the overlying cohesive slab. The gradual damage process leading to the nucleation of the initial failure is still not entirely understood. Therefore, we studied the damage process preceding snow failure by analyzing the acoustic emissions (AE) generated by bond failure or micro-cracking. The AE allow studying the ongoing progressive failure in a non-destructive way. We performed fully load-controlled failure experiments on snow samples presenting a weak layer and recorded the generated AE. The size and frequency of the generated AE increased before failure revealing an acceleration of the damage process with increased size and frequency of damage and/or microscopic cracks. The AE energy was power-law distributed and the exponent (b-value) decreased approaching failure. The waiting time followed an exponential distribution with increasing exponential coefficient λ before failure. The decrease of the b-value and the increase of λ correspond to a change in the event distribution statistics indicating a transition from homogeneously distributed uncorrelated damage producing mostly small AE to localized damage, which cause larger correlated events which leads to brittle failure. We observed brittle failure for the fast experiment and a more ductile behavior for the slow experiments. This rate dependence was reflected also in the AE signature. In the slow experiments the b value and λ were almost constant, and the energy rate increase was moderate indicating that the damage process was in a stable state - suggesting the damage and healing processes to be balanced. On a shorter time scale, however, the AE parameters varied indicating that the damage process was not steady but consisted of a sum of small bursts. We assume that the bursts may have been generated by cascades of correlated micro-cracks caused by localization of

Aldosterone, mortality, and acute ischaemic events in coronary artery disease patients outside the setting of acute myocardial infarction or heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanes, Fabrice; Susen, Sophie; Mouquet, Frédéric; Pigny, Pascal; Cuilleret, François; Sautière, Karine; Collet, Jean-Philippe; Beygui, Farzin; Hennache, Bernadette; Ennezat, Pierre Vladimir; Juthier, Françis; Richard, Florence; Dallongeville, Jean; Hillaert, Marieke A; Doevendans, Pieter A; Jude, Brigitte; Bertrand, Michel; Montalescot, Gilles; Van Belle, Eric

2012-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that aldosterone levels measured in patients with heart failure or acute myocardial infarction (MI) are associated with long-term mortality, but the association with aldosterone levels in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) outside these specific settings remains unknown. In addition, no clear mechanism has been elucidated to explain these observations. The present study was designed to evaluate the relationship between the level of aldosterone and the risk of death and acute ischaemic events in CAD patients with a preserved left ventricular (LV) function and no acute MI. In 799 consecutive CAD patients referred for elective coronary angioplasty measurements were obtained before the procedure for: aldosterone (median = 25 pg/mL), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) (median = 35 pg/mL), hsC-reactive protein (median = 4.17 mg/L), and left ventricular ejection fraction (mean = 58%). Patients with acute MI or coronary syndrome (ACS) who required urgent revascularization were not included in the study. The primary endpoint, cardiovascular death, occurred in 41 patients during a median follow-up period of 14.9 months. Secondary endpoints-total mortality, acute ischaemic events (acute MI or ischaemic stroke), and the composite of death and acute ischaemic events-were observed in 52, 54, and 94 patients, respectively. Plasma aldosterone was found to be related to BMI, hypertension and NYHA class, and inversely related to age, creatinine clearance, and use of beta-blockers. Multivariate Cox model analysis demonstrated that aldosterone was independently associated with cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.001), total mortality (P = 0.001), acute ischaemic events (P = 0.01), and the composite of death and acute ischaemic events (P = 0.004). Reclassification analysis, using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI), demonstrated incremental predictive value of aldosterone (P acute MI, the level of

Reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

2013-01-01

This paper suggests two combinatorial algorithms for the reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation effects. Propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is referred to as a failure that not only causes outage to the component from which the failure originates, but also propagates through all other system components causing the entire system failure. However, the propagation effect from the PFGE can be isolated in systems with functional dependence (FDEP) behavior. This paper studies two distinct consequences of PFGE resulting from a competition in the time domain between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects. As compared to existing works on competing failures that are limited to systems with a single FDEP group, this paper considers more complicated cases where the systems have multiple dependent FDEP groups. Analysis of such systems is more challenging because both the occurrence order between the trigger failure event and PFGE from the dependent components and the occurrence order among the multiple trigger failure events have to be considered. Two combinatorial and analytical algorithms are proposed. Both of them have no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. Their correctness is verified using a Markov-based method. An example of memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate and compare the applications and advantages of the two proposed algorithms. - Highlights: ► Reliability of binary systems with multiple dependent functional dependence groups is analyzed. ► Competing failure propagation and failure isolation effect is considered. ► The proposed algorithms are combinatorial and applicable to any arbitrary type of time-to-failure distributions for system components.

Loss of preferred power events in German BWRs and PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frisch, W.

1984-01-01

This chapter examines the variety of courses which the loss of auxiliary power case may take in different plants, depending on the initiation of the event, the switching to the alternate auxiliary power supply and the automatic start-up sequences of auxiliaries (e.g. feedwater pumps, condensate pumps) after a short term interruption of auxiliary power. Topics considered include main station transformer failure in a boiling water reactor (BWR), main plant features, event description, evaluation of the event, deviations from expected behavior, operator actions, a comparison with start-up tests and other events, a comparison with postcalculations, and auxiliary transformer failure in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Loss of preferred (or auxiliary) power events are standard design cases taken into account in the design of many reactor and plant systems

Fuel failure detection in operating reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seigel, B.; Hagen, H.H.

1977-12-01

Activity detectors in commercial BWRs and PWRs are examined to determine their capability to detect a small number of fuel rod failures during reactor operation. The off-gas system radiation monitor in a BWR and the letdown line radiation monitor in a PWR are calculated to have this capability, and events are cited that support this analysis. Other common detectors are found to be insensitive to small numbers of fuel failures. While adequate detectors exist for normal and transient operation, those detectors would not perform rapidly enough to be useful during accidents; in most accidents, however, primary system sensors (pressure, temperature, level) would provide adequate warning. Advanced methods of fuel failure detection are mentioned

Leveraging Failure in Design Research

Science.gov (United States)

Lobato, Joanne; Walters, C. David; Hohensee, Charles; Gruver, John; Diamond, Jaime Marie

2015-01-01

Even in the resource-rich, more ideal conditions of many design-based classroom interventions, unexpected events can lead to disappointing results in student learning. However, if later iterations in a design research study are more successful, the previous failures can provide opportunities for comparisons to reveal subtle differences in…

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perioperative acute renal failure.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Mahon, Padraig

2012-02-03

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Recent biochemical evidence increasingly implicates inflammatory mechanisms as precipitants of acute renal failure. In this review, we detail some of these pathways together with potential new therapeutic targets. RECENT FINDINGS: Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin appears to be a sensitive, specific and reliable biomarker of renal injury, which may be predictive of renal outcome in the perioperative setting. For estimation of glomerular filtration rate, cystatin C is superior to creatinine. No drug is definitively effective at preventing postoperative renal failure. Clinical trials of fenoldopam and atrial natriuretic peptide are, at best, equivocal. As with pharmacological preconditioning of the heart, volatile anaesthetic agents appear to offer a protective effect to the subsequently ischaemic kidney. SUMMARY: Although a greatly improved understanding of the pathophysiology of acute renal failure has offered even more therapeutic targets, the maintenance of intravascular euvolaemia and perfusion pressure is most effective at preventing new postoperative acute renal failure. In the future, strategies targeting renal regeneration after injury will use bone marrow-derived stem cells and growth factors such as insulin-like growth factor-1.

Operating experience feedback report: Service water system failures and degradations: Volume 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, P.; Leeds, E.

1988-11-01

A comprehensive review and evaluation of service water system failures and degradations observed in operating events in light water reactors from 1980 to 1987 has been conducted. The review and evaluation focused on the identification of causes of system failures and degradations, the adequacy of corrective actions implemented and planned, and the safety significance of the operating events. The results of this review and evaluation indicate that the service water system failures and degradations have significant safety implications. These system failures and degradations are attributable to a great variety of causes, and have adverse impact on a large number of safety-related systems and components which are required to mitigate reactor accidents. Specifically, the causes of failures and degradations include various fouling mechanisms (sediment deposition, biofouling, corrosion and erosion, pipe coating failure, calcium carbonate, foreign material and debris intrusion); single failures and other design deficiencies; flooding; multiple equipment failures; personnel and procedural errors; and seismic deficiencies. Systems and components adversely impacted by a service water system failure or degradation include the component cooling water system, emergency diesel generators, emergency core cooling system pumps and heat exchangers, the residual heat removal system, containment spray and fan coolers, control room chillers, and reactor building cooling units. 44 refs., 10 figs., 5 tabs

Shear failure of granular materials

Science.gov (United States)

Degiuli, Eric; Balmforth, Neil; McElwaine, Jim; Schoof, Christian; Hewitt, Ian

2012-02-01

Connecting the macroscopic behavior of granular materials with the microstructure remains a great challenge. Recent work connects these scales with a discrete calculus [1]. In this work we generalize this formalism from monodisperse packings of disks to 2D assemblies of arbitrarily shaped grains. In particular, we derive Airy's expression for a symmetric, divergence-free stress tensor. Using these tools, we derive, from first-principles and in a mean-field approximation, the entropy of frictional force configurations in the Force Network Ensemble. As a macroscopic consequence of the Coulomb friction condition at contacts, we predict shear failure at a critical shear stress, in accordance with the Mohr-Coulomb failure condition well known in engineering. Results are compared with numerical simulations, and the dependence on the microscopic geometric configuration is discussed. [4pt] [1] E. DeGiuli & J. McElwaine, PRE 2011. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.84.041310

Multivariable analysis of a failure event of pressure regulator in a BWR; Analisis multivariable de un evento de falla del regulador de presion en un BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castillo D, R.; Ortiz V, J. [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Calleros M, G. [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Central Nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde, Carretera Cardel-Nautla, Km. 43.5, Veracruz (Mexico)], e-mail: rogelio.castillo@inin.gob.mx

2009-10-15

The boiling water reactors can experiment three types of instabilities: one caused by the controllers failure of plant, another renowned instability by reactivity and the last knew as thermal hydraulics instability. An event of pressure regulator failure of electro-hydraulic control of Unit 1 of nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde was analyzed, which caused power oscillations that were increasing their magnitude in the time course. The event has been analyzed using the Fourier transformation in short time for time-frequency analysis and for the frequency domain be employment the power spectral density. Both techniques reported a resonance to oscillation frequency of 0.055 Hz in the power spectrum, this frequency is of observed order of magnitude when fail the reactor control systems. However, these analysis did not allow to study the interrelation of event signals. Of the previous studies, were obtained power spectral densities containing picks and valleys related with the dynamic behaviour of reactor, which includes the control systems performance. For a pick or present valley to a specific frequency in the power spectrum for one of previous variables, can determine the influence of other variables on the pick or valley by relative contribution of power. This method was established in a developed program of name Noise, which uses a multivariable autoregressive model to obtain the autoregressive coefficients, and starting from them the relative contribution of power is determined. Basically two important results were obtained, the first is related with the influence of feed water flow on the other variables to the frequency of 0.055 Hz, the second is related with the instability by reactivity and confirms that this way was not excited during the event. (Author)

Isotropic events observed with a borehole array in the Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Kuo-Fong; Lin, Yen-Yu; Lee, Shiann-Jong; Mori, Jim; Brodsky, Emily E

2012-07-27

Shear failure is the dominant mode of earthquake-causing rock failure along faults. High fluid pressure can also potentially induce rock failure by opening cavities and cracks, but an active example of this process has not been directly observed in a fault zone. Using borehole array data collected along the low-stress Chelungpu fault zone, Taiwan, we observed several small seismic events (I-type events) in a fluid-rich permeable zone directly below the impermeable slip zone of the 1999 moment magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. Modeling of the events suggests an isotropic, nonshear source mechanism likely associated with natural hydraulic fractures. These seismic events may be associated with the formation of veins and other fluid features often observed in rocks surrounding fault zones and may be similar to artificially induced hydraulic fracturing.

A scheme for PET data normalization in event-based motion correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Victor W; Kyme, Andre Z; Fulton, Roger; Meikle, Steven R

2009-01-01

Line of response (LOR) rebinning is an event-based motion-correction technique for positron emission tomography (PET) imaging that has been shown to compensate effectively for rigid motion. It involves the spatial transformation of LORs to compensate for motion during the scan, as measured by a motion tracking system. Each motion-corrected event is then recorded in the sinogram bin corresponding to the transformed LOR. It has been shown previously that the corrected event must be normalized using a normalization factor derived from the original LOR, that is, based on the pair of detectors involved in the original coincidence event. In general, due to data compression strategies (mashing), sinogram bins record events detected on multiple LORs. The number of LORs associated with a sinogram bin determines the relative contribution of each LOR. This paper provides a thorough treatment of event-based normalization during motion correction of PET data using LOR rebinning. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that normalization of the corrected event during LOR rebinning should account for the number of LORs contributing to the sinogram bin into which the motion-corrected event is binned. Failure to account for this factor may cause artifactual slice-to-slice count variations in the transverse slices and visible horizontal stripe artifacts in the coronal and sagittal slices of the reconstructed images. The theory and implementation of normalization in conjunction with the LOR rebinning technique is described in detail, and experimental verification of the proposed normalization method in phantom studies is presented.

FRAC (failure rate analysis code): a computer program for analysis of variance of failure rates. An application user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.; McInteer, C.R.

1982-03-01

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) require estimates of the failure rates of various components whose failure modes appear in the event and fault trees used to quantify accident sequences. Several reliability data bases have been designed for use in providing the necessary reliability data to be used in constructing these estimates. In the nuclear industry, the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS) and the In-Plant Reliability Data System (IRPDS), among others, were designed for this purpose. An important characteristic of such data bases is the selection and identification of numerous factors used to classify each component that is reported and the subsequent failures of each component. However, the presence of such factors often complicates the analysis of reliability data in the sense that it is inappropriate to group (that is, pool) data for those combinations of factors that yield significantly different failure rate values. These types of data can be analyzed by analysis of variance. FRAC (Failure Rate Analysis Code) is a computer code that performs an analysis of variance of failure rates. In addition, FRAC provides failure rate estimates

Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sacks, S. I.

2013-12-01

Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

Financial system loss as an example of high consequence, high frequency events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGovern, D.E.

1996-07-01

Much work has been devoted to high consequence events with low frequency of occurrence. Characteristic of these events are bridge failure (such as that of the Tacoma Narrows), building failure (such as the collapse of a walkway at a Kansas City hotel), or compromise of a major chemical containment system (such as at Bhopal, India). Such events, although rare, have an extreme personal, societal, and financial impact. An interesting variation is demonstrated by financial losses due to fraud and abuse in the money management system. The impact can be huge, entailing very high aggregate costs, but these are a result of the contribution of many small attacks and not the result of a single (or few) massive events. Public awareness is raised through publicized events such as the junk bond fraud perpetrated by Milikin or gross mismanagement in the failure of the Barings Bank through unsupervised trading activities by Leeson in Singapore. These event,s although seemingly large (financial losses may be on the order of several billion dollars), are but small contributors to the estimated $114 billion loss to all types of financial fraud in 1993. This paper explores the magnitude of financial system losses and identifies new areas for analysis of high consequence events including the potential effect of malevolent intent.

NRC concerns about steam generator tube U-bend failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dillon, R.L.

1981-01-01

This paper concerns itself with genralized NRC regulatory policy regarding SGT failures and staff reports and opinions which may tend to influence the developing policy specific to U-bend failures. The most significant analysis at hand in predicting NRC policy on SGT U-bend failures is Marsh's Evaluation of Steam Generator Tube Rupture Events. Marsh sets out to describe and analyze the five steam generator tube ruptures that are known to NRC. All have occurred in the period 1975 to 1980

Common cause failures - a dilemma in perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.M.; Watson, I.A.

1980-01-01

This paper identifies the broad spectrum of common cause failure (CCF) definitions used by various authors. These definitions, as applied to real aircraft and nuclear reactor failure events, lead to a divergence of interpretation and a resultant confusion that obscures meaningful progress in CCF analysis. A new definition is proposed, explained, and tested against the examples. Technical as well as administrative practices are cited as ways to control or eliminate the product defects that lead to CCF. (author)

A periodic inspection and replacement policy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and traumatic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huynh, K.T., E-mail: tuan.huynh@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, A., E-mail: anne.barros@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Berenguer, C., E-mail: christophe.berenguer@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Castro, I.T., E-mail: inmatorres@unex.e [Departamento de Matematicas, Escuela Politecnica, 10071 Caceres (Spain)

2011-04-15

This paper deals with the condition-based maintenance of single-unit systems which are subject to the competing and dependent failures due deterioration and traumatic shock events. The main aim is to provide a model to assess the value of condition monitoring information for the maintenance decision-making. A condition-based periodic inspection/replacement policy is developed and compared with a benchmark time-based block replacement policy. Numerical results show that it is indeed useful to follow closely the actual evolution of the system to adapt the maintenance decisions to the true system state to improve the performance of maintenance policies. The analysis of the maintenance costs savings can be used to justify or not the choice to implement a policy based on condition monitoring information and to invest in condition monitoring devices.

A periodic inspection and replacement policy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and traumatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huynh, K.T.; Barros, A.; Berenguer, C.; Castro, I.T.

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the condition-based maintenance of single-unit systems which are subject to the competing and dependent failures due deterioration and traumatic shock events. The main aim is to provide a model to assess the value of condition monitoring information for the maintenance decision-making. A condition-based periodic inspection/replacement policy is developed and compared with a benchmark time-based block replacement policy. Numerical results show that it is indeed useful to follow closely the actual evolution of the system to adapt the maintenance decisions to the true system state to improve the performance of maintenance policies. The analysis of the maintenance costs savings can be used to justify or not the choice to implement a policy based on condition monitoring information and to invest in condition monitoring devices.

Renal failure in patients with multiple myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Almueilo, Samir H

2015-01-01

Renal dysfunction is encountered in 20-25% of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the time of diagnosis. There is often a precipitating event. Several biochemical and clinical correlations with renal failure in MM have been reported. Renal failure in MM is associated with worse outcome of the disease. We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 64 patients with MM admitted to our institution during the period January 1992 to December 2012. Abnormal renal function was observed in 24 (37.5%) patients and 17 (26.6%) of them had renal failure; 14 of the 17 (82.4%) of patients with renal failure had Stage III MM. Urine Bence- Jones protein was positive in ten (58.8%) patients with renal failure versus ten (21.3%) patients without renal failure (P = 0.004). Potential precipitating factors of renal failure were determined in nine patients. Renal function normalized in 11 patients with simple measures, while six patients required hemodialysis; one remained dialysis dependent till time of death. Early mortality occurred in five (29.4%) patients with renal failure as compared with two (4.3%) patients in the group without renal failure (P = 0.005). In conclusion, renal failure is associated with a higher tumor burden and Bence-Jones proteinuria in patients with MM. It is reversible in the majority of patients; however, early mortality tends to be higher in patients with persistent renal failure.

The China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (China PEACE) retrospective heart failure study design.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yuan; Zhang, Hongzhao; Li, Xi; Lu, Yuan; Masoudi, Frederick A; Krumholz, Harlan M; Li, Jing

2018-05-10

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of hospitalisation in China, which is experiencing a rapid increase in cardiovascular disease prevalence. Yet, little is known about current burden of disease, quality of care and treatment outcomes of HF in China. The objective of this paper is to describe the study methodology, data collection and abstraction, and progress to date of the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events 5 Retrospective Heart Failure Study (China PEACE 5r-HF). The China PEACE 5r-HF Study will examine a nationally representative sample of more than 10 000 patient records hospitalised for HF in 2015 in China. The study is a retrospective cohort study. Patients have been selected using a two-stage sampling design stratified by economic-geographical regions. We will collect patient characteristics, diagnostic testing, treatments and in-hospital outcomes, including death and complications, and charges of hospitalisation. Data quality will be monitored by a central coordinating centre and will address case ascertainment, data abstraction and data management. As of October 2017, we have sampled 15 538 medical records from 189 hospitals, and have received 15 057 (96.9%) of these for data collection, and completed data abstraction and quality control on 7971. The Central Ethics Committee at the Chinese National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases approved the study. All collaborating hospitals accepted central ethics committee approval with the exception of 15 hospitals, which obtained local approval by internal ethics committees. Findings will be disseminated in future peer-reviewed papers and will serve as a foundation for improving the care for HF in China. NCT02877914. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A time-dependent event tree technique for modelling recovery operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1991-01-01

The development of a simplified time dependent event tree methodology is presented. The technique is especially applicable to describe recovery operations in nuclear reactor accident scenarios initiated by support system failures. The event tree logic is constructed using time dependent top events combined with a damage function that contains information about the final state time behavior of the reactor core. Both the failure and the success states may be utilized for the analysis. The method is illustrated by modeling the loss of service water function with special emphasis on the RCP [reactor coolant pump] seal LOCA [loss of coolant accident] scenario. 5 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Valvular Heart Disease in Heart Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe MC Rosano

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Structural valvular heart disease may be the cause of heart failure or may worsen the clinical status of patients with heart failure. Heart failure may also develop in patients treated with valve surgery. Patients with heart failure with valvular heart disease are at increased risk of events including sudden cardiac death. Before considering intervention (surgical or percutaneous all patients should receive appropriate medical and device therapy taking into account that vasodilators must be used with caution in patients with severe aortic stenosis. Numerous percutaneous and/or hybrid procedures have been introduced in the past few years and they are changing the management of valvular heart disease. In patients with heart failure and valvular heart disease, either primary or functional, the whole process of decision-making should be staged through a comprehensive evaluation of the risk– benefit ratio of different treatment strategies and should be made by a multidisciplinary ‘heart team’ with a particular expertise in valvular heart disease. The heart team should include heart failure cardiologists, cardiac surgeons/structural valve interventionists, imaging specialists, anaesthetists, geriatricians and intensive care specialists. This article will review recent developments and distill practical guidance in the management of this important heart failure co-morbidity.

Failure-probability driven dose painting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena; Berthelsen, Anne K.; Bentzen, Søren M.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity

HEDL empirical correlation of fuel pin top failure thresholds, status 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baars, R.E.

1976-01-01

The Damage Parameter (DP) empirical correlation of fuel pin cladding failure thresholds for TOP events has been revised and recorrelated to the results of twelve TREAT tests. The revised correlation, called the Failure Potential (FP) correlation, predicts failure times for the tests in the data base with an average error of 35 ms for $3/s tests and of 150 ms for 50 cents/s tests

Incidence and predictors of 6 months mortality after an acute heart failure event in rural Uganda: The Mbarara Heart Failure Registry (MAHFER).

Science.gov (United States)

Abeya, Fardous Charles; Lumori, Boniface Amanee Elias; Akello, Suzan Joan; Annex, Brian H; Buda, Andrew J; Okello, Samson

2018-03-29

We sought to estimate the incidence and predictors of all-cause mortality 6 months after heart failure hospitalization in Uganda. Mbarara Heart Failure Registry is a cohort of patients hospitalized with a clinical diagnosis of heart failure at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, Uganda. We measured serum electrolytes, cardiac markers, and echocardiograms. All participants were followed until death or end of 6 months. We used Fine and Gray models to estimate the incidence and predictors all-cause mortality. A total of 215 participants were enrolled, 141 (66%) were women, and mean age 53 (standard deviation 22) years. Nineteen (9%) had diabetes, 40 (19%) had HIV, and 119 (55%) had hypertension. The overall incidence of all-cause mortality was 3.58 (95% CI 2.92, 4.38) per 1000 person-days. Men had higher incidence of death compared to women (4.02 vs 3.37 per 1000 person-days). The incidence of all-cause mortality during hospitalization was almost twice that of in the community (27.5 vs 14.77 per 1000 person-days). In adjusted analysis, increasing age, NYHA class IV, decreasing renal function, smoking, each unit increase in serum levels of Potassium, BNP, and Creatine kinase-MB predicted increased incidence of 6 months all-cause death whereas taking beta-blockers and having an index admission on a weekend compared to a week day predicted survival. There is a high incidence of all-cause mortality occurring in-hospital among patients hospitalized with heart failure in rural Uganda. Heart failure directed therapies should be instituted to curb heart failure-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of unprotected overcooling events in the Integral Fast Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vilim, R.B.

1989-01-01

Simple analytic models are developed for predicting the response of a metal fueled, liquid-metal cooled reactor to unprotected overcooling events in the balance of plant. All overcooling initiators are shown to fall into two categories. The first category contains these events for which there is no final equilibrium state of constant overcooling, as in the case for a large steam leak. These events are analyzed using a non-flow control mass approach. The second category contains those events which will eventually equilibrate, such as a loss of feedwater heaters. A steady flow control volume analysis shows that these latter events ultimately affect the plant through the feedwater inlet to the steam generator. The models developed for analyzing these two categories provide upper bounds for the reactor's passive response to overcooling accident initiators. Calculation of these bounds for a prototypic plant indicate that failure limits -- eutectic melting, sodium boiling, fuel pin failure -- are not exceeded in any overcooling event. 2 refs

Assessment of the impact of fueling machine failure on the safety of the CANDU-PHWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Kusayer, T.A.

1982-01-01

A survey of possible LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) initiating events that might take place for CANDU-PHWRs (Canadian Deuterium Uranium-Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors) has been conducted covering both direct and indirect initiators. Among the 22 initiating events that were surveyed in this study, four direct initiators have been selected and analyzed briefly. Those selected were a pump suction piping break, an isolation valve piping break, a bleed valve failure, and a fueling machine interface failure. These were selected as examples of failures that could take place in the inlet side, outlet side, or PHTS (Primary Heat Transport System) interfaces. The Pickering NGS (Unit-A) was used for this case study. Double failure (failure of the protective devices to operate when the process equipment fault occurs) and a triple failure (failure of the protective devices and the ECCS as well as the process equipment) were found to be highly improbable

Common cause failure data collection and analysis for safety-related components of TRIGA SSR-14MW Pitesti, Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radu, G.; Mladin, D.

2003-01-01

This paper presents a study performed on the set of common cause failures (CCF) of safety-related components of the research reactor TRIGA SSR-14 MW Pitesti. The data collected cover a period of 20 years, from 1979 to 2000. The sources of data are Shift Supervisor Reports, Work Authorizations, and Reactor Log Books. Events collected are analyzed by failure mode and degrees of failure. Qualitative analysis of root causes, coupling factors and corrective actions and quantitative analysis of CCF events are studied. The objective of this work is to develop qualitative insights in the nature of the reported events and to build a site-specific common cause events database. (author)

Two viewpoints for software failures and their relation in probabilistic safety assessment of digital instrumentation and control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Man Cheol

2015-01-01

As the use of digital systems in nuclear power plants increases, the reliability of the software becomes one of the important issues in probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, two viewpoints for a software failure during the operation of a digital system or a statistical software test are identified, and the relation between them is provided. In conventional software reliability analysis, a failure is mainly viewed with respect to the system operation. A new viewpoint with respect to the system input is suggested. The failure probability density functions for the two viewpoints are defined, and the relation between the two failure probability density functions is derived. Each failure probability density function can be derived from the other failure probability density function by applying the derived relation between the two failure probability density functions. The usefulness of the derived relation is demonstrated by applying it to the failure data obtained from the software testing of a real system. The two viewpoints and their relation, as identified in this paper, are expected to help us extend our understanding of the reliability of safety-critical software. (author)

Prognostic factors for perioperative pulmonary events among patients undergoing upper abdominal surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Luis Sakai

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: The significant relationship between upper abdominal surgery and early (perioperative pulmonary events was investigated among patients with preoperative pulmonary conditions undergoing general anesthesia. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective study for which data were obtained prospectively from 1999 to 2004, at a tertiary university hospital. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 3107 patients over 11 years old presenting American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA status I, II or III who underwent upper abdominal surgery under general anesthesia and were discharged to the recovery room. The preoperative conditions analyzed using logistic regression were: age, sex, ASA physical status, congestive heart failure, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, respiratory failure and smoking. The outcomes or dependent variables included intraoperative and postoperative events: bronchospasm, hypoxemia, hypercapnia, prolonged intubation and airway secretion. RESULTS: Among these patients (1500 males, 1607 females, mean age 48 years, 1088 ASA I, 1402 ASA II and 617 ASA III, there were 80 congestive heart failures, 82 asthmatics, 122 with COPD, 21 respiratory failures and 428 smokers. Logistic regression analysis showed that female sex (p < 0.001, age over 70 years (p < 0.01, smoking (p < 0.001 and COPD (p < 0.02 significantly influenced pulmonary event development, particularly hypoxemia and bronchospasm, at both times but not in the same patients. Asthma and congestive heart failure cases did not present pulmonary events in the recovery room. CONCLUSION: In upper abdominal surgery under general anesthesia, female sex, age over 70, smoking and COPD were independent risk factors for intra and postoperative pulmonary events.

Trend analysis of breaker events at United States nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Hiroki

2006-01-01

From events in overseas nuclear power plants recorded in the nuclear information detabase of Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc. (INSS), the number of events of electrical systems during the four years from 2002 to 2005 was extracted and the trend was analyzed. The results showed that breaker events were the largest in number in all years, and almost all them occurred in the US. The breaker events that occurred in US nuclear power plants in 2005 were analyzed by classifying them by cause of failure and effect on the plant, and by comparing the number of occurrences with that in Japan. As a result, the main cause of many of the breaker events was improper maintenance due to poor arrangement of maintenance manuals and human error, as well as aging degradation, they can be estimated to have been caused by insufficient maintenance control and inspection. The number of breaker failures per plant per year in our country was lower than that in the US by an order of magnitude, and there were no failures that led to a plant trip or power reduction. These facts suggest that our country's maintenance contents of breaker are advantage. (author)

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

An observational study of the frequency, severity, and etiology of failures in postoperative care after major elective general surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Symons, Nicholas R A; Almoudaris, Alex M; Nagpal, Kamal; Vincent, Charles A; Moorthy, Krishna

2013-01-01

To investigate the nature of process failures in postoperative care, to assess their frequency and preventability, and to explore their relationship to adverse events. Adverse events are common and are frequently caused by failures in the process of care. These processes are often evaluated independently using clinical audit. There is little understanding of process failures in terms of their overall frequency, relative risk, and cumulative effect on the surgical patient. Patients were observed daily from the first postoperative day until discharge by an independent surgeon. Field notes on the circumstances surrounding any nonroutine or atypical event were recorded. Field notes were assessed by 2 surgeons to identify failures in the process of care. Preventability, the degree of harm caused to the patient, and the underlying etiology of process failures were evaluated by 2 independent surgeons. Fifty patients undergoing major elective general surgery were observed for a total of 659 days of postoperative care. A total of 256 process failures were identified, of which 85% were preventable and 51% directly led to patient harm. Process failures occurred in all aspects of care, the most frequent being medication prescribing and administration, management of lines, tubes, and drains, and pain control interventions. Process failures accounted for 57% of all preventable adverse events. Communication failures and delays were the main etiologies, leading to 54% of process failures. Process failures are common in postoperative care, are highly preventable, and frequently cause harm to patients. Interventions to prevent process failures will improve the reliability of surgical postoperative care and have the potential to reduce hospital stay.

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Lee, Y. S.; Moon, J. J.; Lee, M. K. [Sumoon Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Ji Hwan [Baekseok College, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Yang, S. H. [Korea Association for Nuclear Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2000-02-15

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of 3 major technical issues for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which are parts of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : through comparison and analysis of domestic/international requirements related to SBO, additional items, which are considered in SSRs, are identified. According to investigation, procedure and training should be included in SSRs, and plant-specific capability analysis requirement contains initial condition, acceptance and addition analysis on the leak rake through RCP seal, etc. In addition, state of the art on the major items related to SBO requirement are described. Several safety analysis requirements are suggested that are needed to be used in the analyses which are aiming to show the ability of the SDVS to cope with TLOFW event. The suggested requirements include suggestions in BE method, reactor thermal power and decay heat, time to reactor trip, time to RCP trip, operator response time, pressurizer and steam generator, and thermal-hydraulic models related to TLOFW event. It is recommended that Moody model mentioned in 10CFR50 appendix K should be excluded in calculation of discharge flow through bleed valves in case of a TLOFW event. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The suggestion includes requirements on analysis method, number of reptured tubes, repture location, operator response time, primary coolant leak flow, and acceptance criteria. As there has been no occurrence of MSGTR event and little literatures reporting analysis results of the event, some items need more study. In addition, some analyses are needed in order to fine the rupture location which gives the most conservative consequence.

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Lee, Y. S.; Moon, J. J.; Lee, M. K.; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Yang, S. H.

2000-02-01

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of 3 major technical issues for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which are parts of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : through comparison and analysis of domestic/international requirements related to SBO, additional items, which are considered in SSRs, are identified. According to investigation, procedure and training should be included in SSRs, and plant-specific capability analysis requirement contains initial condition, acceptance and addition analysis on the leak rake through RCP seal, etc. In addition, state of the art on the major items related to SBO requirement are described. Several safety analysis requirements are suggested that are needed to be used in the analyses which are aiming to show the ability of the SDVS to cope with TLOFW event. The suggested requirements include suggestions in BE method, reactor thermal power and decay heat, time to reactor trip, time to RCP trip, operator response time, pressurizer and steam generator, and thermal-hydraulic models related to TLOFW event. It is recommended that Moody model mentioned in 10CFR50 appendix K should be excluded in calculation of discharge flow through bleed valves in case of a TLOFW event. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The suggestion includes requirements on analysis method, number of reptured tubes, repture location, operator response time, primary coolant leak flow, and acceptance criteria. As there has been no occurrence of MSGTR event and little literatures reporting analysis results of the event, some items need more study. In addition, some analyses are needed in order to fine the rupture location which gives the most conservative consequence

Dependencies in event trees analyzed by Petri nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nývlt, Ondřej; Rausand, Marvin

2012-01-01

This paper discusses how non-marked Petri nets can be used to model and analyze event trees where the pivotal (branching) events are dependent and modeled by fault trees. The dependencies may, for example, be caused by shared utilities, shared components, or general common cause failures that are modeled by beta-factor models. These dependencies are cumbersome to take into account when using standard event-/fault tree modeling techniques, and may lead to significant errors in the calculated end-state probabilities of the event tree if they are not properly analyzed. A new approach is proposed in this paper, where the whole event tree is modeled by a non-marked Petri net and where P-invariants, representing the structural properties of the Petri net, are used to obtain the frequency of each end-state of the event tree with dependencies. The new approach is applied to a real example of an event tree analysis of the Strahov highway tunnel in Prague, Czech Republic, including two types of dependencies (shared Programmable Logic Controllers and Common Cause Failures). - Highlights: ► In this paper, we model and analyze event trees (ET) using Petri nets. ► The pivotal events of the modeled event trees are dependent (e.g., shared PLCs, CCF). ► A new method based on P-invariants to obtain probabilities of end states is proposed. ► Method is shown in the case study of the Stahov tunnel in the Czech Republic.

Recurring events - Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-04-01

known, thus the actions taken were not effective in preventing recurrence of an event, - The contributing factors or causes of the event were not taken into account in defining the actions to be taken. Several good practices were identified to prevent recurring events. These practices are part of related guides provided by national and international bodies. Some of these are: - NPPs should analyse recurring events in-depth, in order to identify root causes and contributing factors to prevent further recurrence. The specific factors that failed to prevent recurrence should be investigated and identified (that is, why prior operating experience was not effectively applied). - For minor events, trend analyses should be performed to monitor the frequency of component failures (which may be unavoidable) or the frequency of minor human performance problems (which may indicate weaknesses in error prevention processes and programs). - Analysis of external operating experiences from other NPPs should be strengthened to broaden the basis for preventive measures; - Actions taken after events should be assessed regarding their effectiveness in preventing recurrence of similar events. Subsequent to the workshop, a more detailed search of reports of operating experience, including IRS and other reports from national sources, resulted in the determination of a number of recurring categories: - Loss of RHR at mid-loop (in the 1999 report also); - BWR instability (in the 1999 report also); - PWR vessel corrosion due to boric acid effects; - Hydrogen detonation in BWR piping; - Steam Generator Tube Rupture; - Multiple valve failures in ECCS; - Service Water Failure due to Marine Biofouling (in the 1999 report also); - System Level Failures with Human Factors Considerations; - Strainer Clogging (sources of emergency injection or recirculation). Five conclusions were established on the basis of the workshop and the recurring event analysis: Conclusion 1: Recurring events continue to be

Insights About Emergency Diesel Generator Failures from the USNRC's Common Cause Failure Database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Rasmuson, D.; Marshall, F.; Wierman, T.

1999-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has sponsored development of a database of common cause failure events for use in commercial nuclear power plant risk and reliability analyses. This paper presents a summary of the results from analysis of the emergency diesel generator data from the database. The presentation is limited to the overall insights, the design and manufacturing cause and the instrumentation and control sub-system

Estimation of initiating event distribution at nuclear power plants by Bayesian procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Guangming

1995-01-01

Initiating events at nuclear power plants such as human errors or components failures may lead to a nuclear accident. The study of the frequency of these events or the distribution of the failure rate is necessary in probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. This paper presents Bayesian modelling methods for the analysis of the distribution of the failure rate. The method can also be utilized in other related fields especially where the data is sparse. An application of the Bayesian modelling in the analysis of distribution of the time to recover Loss of Off-Site Power ( LOSP) is discussed in the paper

Development of a GIS-based failure investigation system for highway soil slopes

Science.gov (United States)

Ramanathan, Raghav; Aydilek, Ahmet H.; Tanyu, Burak F.

2015-06-01

A framework for preparation of an early warning system was developed for Maryland, using a GIS database and a collective overlay of maps that highlight highway slopes susceptible to soil slides or slope failures in advance through spatial and statistical analysis. Data for existing soil slope failures was collected from geotechnical reports and field visits. A total of 48 slope failures were recorded and analyzed. Six factors, including event precipitation, geological formation, land cover, slope history, slope angle, and elevation were considered to affect highway soil slope stability. The observed trends indicate that precipitation and poor surface or subsurface drainage conditions are principal factors causing slope failures. 96% of the failed slopes have an open drainage section. A majority of the failed slopes lie in regions with relatively high event precipitation ( P>200 mm). 90% of the existing failures are surficial erosion type failures, and only 1 out of the 42 slope failures is deep rotational type failure. More than half of the analyzed slope failures have occurred in regions having low density land cover. 46% of failures are on slopes with slope angles between 20° and 30°. Influx of more data relating to failed slopes should give rise to more trends, and thus the developed slope management system will aid the state highway engineers in prudential budget allocation and prioritizing different remediation projects based on the literature reviewed on the principles, concepts, techniques, and methodology for slope instability evaluation (Leshchinsky et al., 2015).

42 CFR 23.28 - What events constitute default?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What events constitute default? 23.28 Section 23.28 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES PERSONNEL NATIONAL HEALTH... default? The following events will constitute defaults of the loan agreement: (a) Failure to make full...

Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

2017-01-01

Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.

Accuracy of a Rationally Derived Method for Identifying Treatment Failure in Children and Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Matthew J.; Bybee, Taige S.; Lambert, Michael J.; Burlingame, Gary M.; Wells, M. Gawain; Poppleton, Landon E.

2005-01-01

Psychotherapy outcome can be enhanced by early identification of potential treatment failures before they leave treatment. In adults, compelling data are emerging that provide evidence that an early warning system that identifies potential treatment failures can be developed and applied to enhance outcome. The present study reports an analysis of…

Development and validation of a taxonomy of adverse handover events in hospital settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Henning Boje; Siemsen, Inger Margrete D.; Petersen, Lene Funck

2015-01-01

Patient Safety Database, 200 events) and 47 interviews with staff conducted at a large hospital in the Capital Region (232 events). The most prevalent causes of adverse events are inadequate competence (30 %), inadequate infrastructure (22 %) and busy ward (18 %). Inter-rater reliability (kappa) was 0.......76 and 0.87 for reports and interviews, respectively. Communication in clinical contexts has been widely recognized as giving rise to potentially hazardous events, and handover situations are particularly prone to failures of communication or unclear allocation of responsibility. The taxonomy provides...... a tool for analyzing adverse handover events to identify frequent causes among reported handover failures. In turn, this provides a basis for selecting safety measures including handover protocols and training programmes....

Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion and ventricular function in a Japanese multicenter cohort study (J-ACCESS). The first-year total events and hard events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Kenichi; Kusuoka, Hideo; Nishimura, Shigeyuki; Yamashina, Akira; Nishimura, Tsunehiko

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of myocardial ischemia, function and coronary risk factors on total and hard cardiac events using myocardial perfusion imaging in a Japanese population. A prospective cohort study was performed in 117 Japanese hospitals, each with a nuclear cardiology facility. A total of 4,031 patients with suspected or confirmed ischemic heart disease were registered. The patients were followed up for a year to investigate total and hard events, and those who had any events were followed up for 3 years to evaluate subsequent hard events. A stress-rest gated myocardial perfusion study was performed with 99m Tc-tetrofosmin using gated single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and analyzed by semi-quantitative scores. During the 1-year follow-up period, 263 (6.5%) patients had total events comprising all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, unstable angina, angina pectoris and coronary revascularization. Cardiac death occurred in 23 patients (0.6%) and non-fatal MI in 11 (0.3%). Among patients with ejection fraction (EF) of <45% and a summed difference score (SDS) of ≥2, 18.7% (2.4% for cardiac death and 0.6% for non-fatal MI) experienced total events compared with 3.9% (0.3% for cardiac death and 0.2% for non-fatal MI; P<0.0001) of those with EF≥45% and SDS<2. Multivariate analysis identified EF, SDS, age, history of revascularization and diabetes as significant predictors of all events, while the significant predictors were age and EF for hard events. When the patients who had heart failure in the first year were followed up, 9 of 41 (22.0%) experienced cardiac death in the subsequent 3-year follow-up period. Myocardial ischemia defined by SDS and ventricular function were the main predictors of total events despite the relatively low incidence of hard events in this Japanese population. In patients with cardiac events in a year, closer attention should be paid to subsequent

Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

2015-10-01

The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

Investigation and analysis of hydrogen ignition and explosion events in foreign nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okuda, Yasunori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

2002-09-01

Reports about hydrogen ignition and explosion events in foreign nuclear power plants from 1980 to 2001 were investigated, and 31 events were identified. Analysis showed that they were categorized in (1) outer leakage ignition events and (2) inner accumulation ignition events. The dominant event for PWR (pressurized water reactor) was outer leakage ignition in the main generator, and in BWR (boiling water reactor) it was inner accumulation ignition in the off-gas system. The outer leakage ignition was a result of work process failure with the ignition source, operator error, or main generator hydrogen leakage. The inner accumulation ignition events were caused by equipment failure or insufficient monitoring. With careful preventive measures, the factors leading to these events could be eliminated. (author)

Low-cost failure sensor design and development for water pipeline distribution systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, K; Widdop, P D; Day, A J; Wood, A S; Mounce, S R; Machell, J

2002-01-01

This paper describes the design and development of a new sensor which is low cost to manufacture and install and is reliable in operation with sufficient accuracy, resolution and repeatability for use in newly developed systems for pipeline monitoring and leakage detection. To provide an appropriate signal, the concept of a "failure" sensor is introduced, in which the output is not necessarily proportional to the input, but is unmistakably affected when an unusual event occurs. The design of this failure sensor is based on the water opacity which can be indicative of an unusual event in a water distribution network. The laboratory work and field trials necessary to design and prove out this type of failure sensor are described here. It is concluded that a low-cost failure sensor of this type has good potential for use in a comprehensive water monitoring and management system based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).

Study of simple CFRP-metal joint failure

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jingquan; Rodriguez, Antonio; Emerson, Nicolas; Symmes, Arthur

2008-07-01

In millimeter wavelength telescope design and construction, there have been a number of mysterious failures of simple CFRF-metal joints. Telescope designers have not had satisfactory interpretations of these failures. In this paper, factors which may influence the failure of joints are discussed. These include stress concentration, material creep, joint fatigue, reasons related to chemical process and manufacture process. Extrapolation formulas for material creep, joint fatigue, and differential thermal stresses are derived in this paper. Detailed chemical and manufacturing factors are also discussed. All these issues are the causes of a number of early failures under a loading which is significantly lower than the strength of adhesives used. For ensuring reliability of a precision instrument structure joint, the designer should have a thorough understanding of all these factors.

Fuel element thermo-mechanical analysis during transient events using the FMS and FETMA codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez Lopez Hector; Hernandez Martinez Jose Luis; Ortiz Villafuerte Javier

2005-01-01

In the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares of Mexico, the Fuel Management System (FMS) software package has been used for long time to simulate the operation of a BWR nuclear power plant in steady state, as well as in transient events. To evaluate the fuel element thermo-mechanical performance during transient events, an interface between the FMS codes and our own Fuel Element Thermo Mechanical Analysis (FETMA) code is currently being developed and implemented. In this work, the results of the thermo-mechanical behavior of fuel rods in the hot channel during the simulation of transient events of a BWR nuclear power plant are shown. The transient events considered for this work are a load rejection and a feedwater control failure, which among the most important events that can occur in a BWR. The results showed that conditions leading to fuel rod failure at no time appeared for both events. Also, it is shown that a transient due load rejection is more demanding on terms of safety that the failure of a controller of the feedwater. (authors)

Review of failures in nuclear air cleaning systems (1975--1978)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, D.W.

1979-01-01

During the period from January 1, 1975 through June 30, 1978, over 9,000 Licensee Event Reports (LERs) pertaining to the operation of commercial light water nuclear power plants in the US were reported to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Of these reports, over 1,200 (approximately 13%) pertained to failures in air monitoring, ventilating and cleaning systems. For BWR installations, over half of the reported events related to failures in equipment for monitoring the performance of air cleaning systems as contrasted to failures in the systems themselves. In PWR installations, failures in monitoring equipment amounted to about 32% of the total. Reported problem areas in BWR installations included the primary containment and standby gas treatment and off-gas systems, as well as the High Pressure Coolant Injection and Reactor Core Isolation Systems. For PWR installations, reported problem areas included primary containment and associated spray systems and waste processing equipment. Although data on reported failures in power reactor installations can be interpreted in a variety of ways, one message is clear. There is a need for research on the development of more reliable equipment for sampling and monitoring air systems. Equipment that provides inaccurate data on the performance of such systems can lead to as many problems as inadequacies in the systems themselves

Development of a new code to solve hydro-mechanical coupling, shear failure and tensile failure due to hydraulic fracturing operations.

Science.gov (United States)

María Gómez Castro, Berta; De Simone, Silvia; Carrera, Jesús

2016-04-01

Nowadays, there are still some unsolved relevant questions which must be faced if we want to proceed to the hydraulic fracturing in a safe way. How much will the fracture propagate? This is one of the most important questions that have to be solved in order to avoid the formation of pathways leading to aquifer targets and atmospheric release. Will the fracture failure provoke a microseismic event? Probably this is the biggest fear that people have in fracking. The aim of this work (developed as a part of the EU - FracRisk project) is to understand the hydro-mechanical coupling that controls the shear of existing fractures and their propagation during a hydraulic fracturing operation, in order to identify the key parameters that dominate these processes and answer the mentioned questions. This investigation focuses on the development of a new C++ code which simulates hydro-mechanical coupling, shear movement and propagation of a fracture. The framework employed, called Kratos, uses the Finite Element Method and the fractures are represented with an interface element which is zero thickness. This means that both sides of the element lie together in the initial configuration (it seems a 1D element in a 2D domain, and a 2D element in a 3D domain) and separate as the adjacent matrix elements deform. Since we are working in hard, fragile rocks, we can assume an elastic matrix and impose irreversible displacements in fractures when rock failure occurs. The formulation used to simulate shear and tensile failures is based on the analytical solution proposed by Okada, 1992 and it is part of an iterative process. In conclusion, the objective of this work is to employ the new code developed to analyze the main uncertainties related with the hydro-mechanical behavior of fractures derived from the hydraulic fracturing operations.

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-02-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

Isolation and expansion of adipose-derived stem cells for tissue engineering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fink, Trine; Rasmussen, Jeppe Grøndahl; Lund, Pia

2011-01-01

For treatment of cardiac failure with bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells, several clinical trials are ongoing. However, more attention is gathering on the use of adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs). This paper describes the optimization of isolation and propagation of ASCs for subseq......For treatment of cardiac failure with bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells, several clinical trials are ongoing. However, more attention is gathering on the use of adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs). This paper describes the optimization of isolation and propagation of ASCs...

The role of levosimendan in acute heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nieminen, Markku S; Buerke, M.; Cohen-Solal, A.

2016-01-01

Acute heart failure and/or cardiogenic shock are frequently triggered by ischemic coronary events. Yet, there is a paucity of randomized data on the management of patients with heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome, as acute coronary syndrome and cardiogenic shock have frequently bee...

neutron-Induced Failures in semiconductor Devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wender, Stephen Arthur [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-03-13

Single Event Effects are a very significant failure mode in modern semiconductor devices that may limit their reliability. Accelerated testing is important for semiconductor industry. Considerable more work is needed in this field to mitigate the problem. Mitigation of this problem will probably come from Physicists and Electrical Engineers working together

Elastic Rock Heterogeneity Controls Brittle Rock Failure during Hydraulic Fracturing

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

2014-12-01

For interpretation and inversion of microseismic data it is important to understand, which properties of the reservoir rock control the occurrence probability of brittle rock failure and associated seismicity during hydraulic stimulation. This is especially important, when inverting for key properties like permeability and fracture conductivity. Although it became accepted that seismic events are triggered by fluid flow and the resulting perturbation of the stress field in the reservoir rock, the magnitude of stress perturbations, capable of triggering failure in rocks, can be highly variable. The controlling physical mechanism of this variability is still under discussion. We compare the occurrence of microseismic events at the Cotton Valley gas field to elastic rock heterogeneity, obtained from measurements along the treatment wells. The heterogeneity is characterized by scale invariant fluctuations of elastic properties. We observe that the elastic heterogeneity of the rock formation controls the occurrence of brittle failure. In particular, we find that the density of events is increasing with the Brittleness Index (BI) of the rock, which is defined as a combination of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. We evaluate the physical meaning of the BI. By applying geomechanical investigations we characterize the influence of fluctuating elastic properties in rocks on the probability of brittle rock failure. Our analysis is based on the computation of stress fluctuations caused by elastic heterogeneity of rocks. We find that elastic rock heterogeneity causes stress fluctuations of significant magnitude. Moreover, the stress changes necessary to open and reactivate fractures in rocks are strongly related to fluctuations of elastic moduli. Our analysis gives a physical explanation to the observed relation between elastic heterogeneity of the rock formation and the occurrence of brittle failure during hydraulic reservoir stimulations. A crucial factor for understanding

Dependency Analysis Guidance Nordic/German Working Group on Common Cause Failure analysis. Phase 2, Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Guenter; Johanson, Gunnar; Lindberg, Sandra; Vaurio, Jussi

2009-03-15

The Regulatory Code SSMFS 2008:1 of Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) includes requirements regarding the performance of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA), as well as PSA activities in general. Therefore, the follow-up of these activities is part of the inspection tasks of SSM. According to the SSMFS 2008:1, the safety analyses shall be based on a systematic identification and evaluation of such events, event sequences and other conditions which may lead to a radiological accident. The research report Nordic/German Working Group on Common cause Failure analysis. Phase 2 project report: Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification has been developed under a contract with the Nordic PSA Group (NPSAG) and its German counterpart VGB, with the aim to create a common experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures i.e. Common Cause Failures CCF. Phase 2 in this project if a deepened data analyses of CCF events and a demonstration on how the so called impact vectors can be constructed and on how CCF parameters are estimated. The word Guidance in the report title is used in order to indicate a common methodological guidance accepted by the NPSAG, based on current state of the art concerning the analysis of dependent failures and adapted to conditions relevant for Nordic sites. This will make it possible for the utilities to perform cost effective improvements and analyses. The report presents a common attempt by the authorities and the utilities to create a methodology and experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures. The performed benchmark application has shown how important the interpretation of base data is to obtain robust CCF data and data analyses results. Good features were found in all benchmark approaches. The obtained experiences and approaches should now be used in harmonised procedures. A next step could be to develop and agree on event and formula driven impact vector

Dependency Analysis Guidance Nordic/German Working Group on Common Cause Failure analysis. Phase 2, Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, Guenter; Johanson, Gunnar; Lindberg, Sandra; Vaurio, Jussi

2009-03-01

The Regulatory Code SSMFS 2008:1 of Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) includes requirements regarding the performance of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA), as well as PSA activities in general. Therefore, the follow-up of these activities is part of the inspection tasks of SSM. According to the SSMFS 2008:1, the safety analyses shall be based on a systematic identification and evaluation of such events, event sequences and other conditions which may lead to a radiological accident. The research report Nordic/German Working Group on Common cause Failure analysis. Phase 2 project report: Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification has been developed under a contract with the Nordic PSA Group (NPSAG) and its German counterpart VGB, with the aim to create a common experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures i.e. Common Cause Failures CCF. Phase 2 in this project if a deepened data analyses of CCF events and a demonstration on how the so called impact vectors can be constructed and on how CCF parameters are estimated. The word Guidance in the report title is used in order to indicate a common methodological guidance accepted by the NPSAG, based on current state of the art concerning the analysis of dependent failures and adapted to conditions relevant for Nordic sites. This will make it possible for the utilities to perform cost effective improvements and analyses. The report presents a common attempt by the authorities and the utilities to create a methodology and experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures. The performed benchmark application has shown how important the interpretation of base data is to obtain robust CCF data and data analyses results. Good features were found in all benchmark approaches. The obtained experiences and approaches should now be used in harmonised procedures. A next step could be to develop and agree on event and formula driven impact vector

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-03-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

When things go wrong: how health care organizations deal with major failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Walshe, Kieran; Shortell, Stephen M

2004-01-01

Concern about patient safety, caused in part by high-profile major failures in which many patients have been harmed, is rising worldwide. This paper draws on examples of such failures from several countries to analyze how these events are dealt with and to identify lessons and recommendations for policy. Better systems are needed for reporting and investigating failures and for implementing the lessons learned. The culture of secrecy, professional protectionism, defensiveness, and deference to authority is central to such major failures, and preventing future failures depends on cultural as much as structural change in health care systems and organizations.

Psychosocial risk factors and heart failure hospitalization: a prospective cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise; Prescott, Eva

2011-01-01

,670 participants of the Copenhagen City Heart Study (Denmark) were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work-related stress, social network, vital exhaustion, and sleep medication and were followed in nationwide registries until 2007, with less than 0.2% loss to follow-up. Almost one......Prospective studies on the role of psychosocial factors in heart failure development are virtually nonexistent. The authors aimed to address the effect of psychosocial factors on the risk of heart failure hospitalization in men and women free of cardiovascular disease. In 1991-1993, the 8...... interval: 1.20, 3.10) and women (hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.80, 3.65). Contrary to expectation, major life events, social network, and sleeping medication did not play an individual role for heart failure hospitalization. Because of the high prevalence of vital exhaustion...

Operational failure at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szatmary, Z.

2003-01-01

NPP failures are ranked according to the International Nuclear Event Scale. To rank the failure first a presentation of the pressurized water plant is given, including fuel change, maintenance cleaning and decontamination process. The failure has been produced with fuel bars in the cleaning container. Consequences of the failure are small, negligible environmental pollution with radioactive material and significant financial outfall due to inactivity of block 2. Among the causes of the failure are design errors of the cleaning container, the pure chemical approach to cleaning, unknown risk factors for some of the cleaning staff, cleaning container has not been verified and approved by responsible authorities, the prevalence of economic and quantitative indicators of the plant on the detriment of safety. Organisational factors also contribute to the possibility of nuclear failures. Specialist training in Germany (where the container has been produced) is significantly reduced, while in Hungary the political tide has caused a permanent change in the higher echelons of the plant management, where nuclear specialists were not included. (Gy.M.)

Deriving Prostate Alpha-Beta Ratio Using Carefully Matched Groups, Long Follow-Up and the Phoenix Definition of Biochemical Failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaffer, Richard; Pickles, Tom; Lee, Richard; Moiseenko, Vitali

2011-01-01

Purpose: Prior studies have derived low values of alpha-beta ratio (a/ss) for prostate cancer of approximately 1-2 Gy. These studies used poorly matched groups, differing definitions of biochemical failure, and insufficient follow-up. Methods and Materials: National Comprehensive Cancer Network low- or low-intermediate risk prostate cancer patients, treated with external beam radiotherapy or permanent prostate brachytherapy, were matched for prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, T-stage, percentage of positive cores, androgen deprivation therapy, and era, yielding 118 patient pairs. The Phoenix definition of biochemical failure was used. The best-fitting value for a/ss was found for up to 90-month follow-up using maximum likelihood analysis, and the 95% confidence interval using the profile likelihood method. Linear quadratic formalism was applied with the radiobiological parameters of relative biological effectiveness = 1.0, potential doubling time = 45 days, and repair half-time = 1 hour. Bootstrap analysis was performed to estimate uncertainties in outcomes, and hence in a/ss. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the values of the radiobiological parameters to extreme values. Results: The value of a/ss best fitting the outcomes data was >30 Gy, with lower 95% confidence limit of 5.2 Gy. This was confirmed on bootstrap analysis. Varying parameters to extreme values still yielded best-fit a/ss of >30 Gy, although the lower 95% confidence interval limit was reduced to 0.6 Gy. Conclusions: Using carefully matched groups, long follow-up, the Phoenix definition of biochemical failure, and well-established statistical methods, the best estimate of a/ss for low and low-tier intermediate-risk prostate cancer is likely to be higher than that of normal tissues, although a low value cannot be excluded.

Reporting of safeguards events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwyer, P.A.; Ervin, N.E.

1988-02-01

On June 9, 1987, the Commission published in the Federal Register a final rule revising the reporting requirements for safeguards events. Safeguards events include actual or attempted theft of special nuclear material (SNM); actual or attempted acts or events which interrupt normal operations at power reactors due to unauthorized use of or tampering with machinery, components, or controls; certain threats made against facilities possessing SNM; and safeguards system failures impacting the effectiveness of the system. The revised rule was effective October 8, 1987. On September 14, 1987, the NRC held a workshop in Bethesda, MD, to answer affected licensees' questions on the final rule. This report documents questions discussed at the September 14 meeting, reflects a completed staff review of the answers, and supersedes previous oral comment on the topics covered

A method to assign failure rates for piping reliability assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gamble, R.M.; Tagart, S.W. Jr.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on a simplified method that has been developed to assign failure rates that can be used in reliability and risk studies of piping. The method can be applied on a line-by-line basis by identifying line and location specific attributes that can lead to piping unreliability from in-service degradation mechanisms and random events. A survey of service experience for nuclear piping reliability also was performed. The data from this survey provides a basis for identifying in-service failure attributes and assigning failure rates for risk and reliability studies

A Novel RSPF Approach to Prediction of High-Risk, Low-Probability Failure Events

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Particle filters (PF) have been established as the de facto state of the art in failure prognosis, and particularly in the representation and management of...

Structuring free form verbal descriptions in equipment failure reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huzdovich, J.

1983-01-01

Information is encoded for convenience in computer sort/search routines used to manage a large number of records. The codes in use for equipment failure reports are limited due to practical considerations, and this limitation forces the reporter to leave out information to satisfy the coding requirements. The free form verbal descriptions, as found in the Generating Availability Data System (GADS) and the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS), allow for reporting of this non-codable information. A systematic approach to constructing the verbal description based on rules of grammar, especially syntax, results in a structured narrative suitable for computer data management schemes. In addition, the reporter has a full range of descriptive terminology and does not have to select subjectively from a predetermined, limited vocabulary to describe the event. This paper introduces a concept that places in perspective the integration of structured, formal reporting and free form verbal description. A second benefit of this structured narrative is the systematic development of failure mode/failure cause relationships in the event

TUF simulation of Darlington class IV power failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liauw, W K; Liu, W S; Leung, R K; Phillips, B S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1996-12-31

Presented here is the TUF simulation of the initial transient of the Class IV power failure event that occurred on November 25, 1993 at Darlington Unit 4. The important physical parameters and models that relate to this event are discussed. The agreements between the code predictions and the plant data on the thermal-hydraulics and controller responses demonstrate the code reliability for plant operational support. (author). 4 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs.

TUF simulation of Darlington class IV power failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liauw, W.K.; Liu, W.S.; Leung, R.K.; Phillips, B.S.

1995-01-01

Presented here is the TUF simulation of the initial transient of the Class IV power failure event that occurred on November 25, 1993 at Darlington Unit 4. The important physical parameters and models that relate to this event are discussed. The agreements between the code predictions and the plant data on the thermal-hydraulics and controller responses demonstrate the code reliability for plant operational support. (author). 4 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs

SIMULATED HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION TO DYNAMIC HUMAN FAILURE EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

2016-10-01

Abstract Objectives: Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods typically analyze human failure events (HFEs) at the overall task level. For dynamic HRA, it is important to model human activities at the subtask level. There exists a disconnect between dynamic subtask level and static task level that presents issues when modeling dynamic scenarios. For example, the SPAR-H method is typically used to calculate the human error probability (HEP) at the task level. As demonstrated in this paper, quantification in SPAR-H does not translate to the subtask level. Methods: Two different discrete distributions were generated for each SPAR-H Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) to define the frequency of PSF levels. The first distribution was a uniform, or uninformed distribution that assumed the frequency of each PSF level was equally likely. The second non-continuous distribution took the frequency of PSF level as identified from an assessment of the HERA database. These two different approaches were created to identify the resulting distribution of the HEP. The resulting HEP that appears closer to the known distribution, a log-normal centered on 1E-3, is the more desirable. Each approach then has median, average and maximum HFE calculations applied. To calculate these three values, three events, A, B and C are generated from the PSF level frequencies comprised of subtasks. The median HFE selects the median PSF level from each PSF and calculates HEP. The average HFE takes the mean PSF level, and the maximum takes the maximum PSF level. The same data set of subtask HEPs yields starkly different HEPs when aggregated to the HFE level in SPAR-H. Results: Assuming that each PSF level in each HFE is equally likely creates an unrealistic distribution of the HEP that is centered at 1. Next the observed frequency of PSF levels was applied with the resulting HEP behaving log-normally with a majority of the values under 2.5% HEP. The median, average and maximum HFE calculations did yield

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: a review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zamora Nava LE

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Luis Eduardo Zamora Nava,1 Jonathan Aguirre Valadez,2 Norberto C Chávez-Tapia,3 Aldo Torre21Department of Endoscopy, 2Department of Gastroenterology, National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubirán, 3Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic and Foundation, Mexico City, MexicoAbstract: There is no universally accepted definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure; however, it is recognized as an entity characterized by decompensation from an underlying chronic liver disease associated with organ failure that conveys high short-term mortality, with alcoholism and infection being the most frequent precipitating events. The pathophysiology involves inflammatory processes associated with a trigger factor in susceptible individuals (related to altered immunity in the cirrhotic population. This review addresses the different definitions developed by leading research groups, epidemiological and pathophysiological aspects, and the latest treatments for this entity.Keywords: acute-on-chronic liver failure, cirrhosis, organ failure, acute kidney injury, infection

Potentially damaging failure modes of high- and medium-voltage electrical equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoy, H.C.

1984-01-01

The high- and medium-voltage electrical equipment failures of both nuclear and nonnuclear electric utilities have been reviewed for possible disruptive failure modes that would be of special concern in a nuclear power plant. The resulting emphasis was on the electrical faults of transformers, switchgear (circuit breakers), lightning (surge) arrestors, high-voltage cabling and buswork, control boards, and other electrical equipment that, through failure, can be the initiating event that may expand the original fault to nearby or associated equipment. Many failures of such equipment were found and documented, although the failure rate of electrical equipment in utilities is historically quite low. Nuclear plants record too few failures to be statistically valid, but failures that have been recorded show that good design usually restricts the failure to a single piece of equipment. Conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the design, maintenance, and operation of the affected electrical equipment are presented

Comparison Of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates Derived From Rain Gauge And Radar Derived Algorithms For Operational Flash Flood Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Streubel, D. P.; Kodama, K.

2014-12-01

To provide continuous flash flood situational awareness and to better differentiate severity of ongoing individual precipitation events, the National Weather Service Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) is being implemented over Hawaii and Alaska. In the implementation process of RDHM, three gridded precipitation analyses are used as forcing. The first analysis is a radar only precipitation estimate derived from WSR-88D digital hybrid reflectivity, a Z-R relationship and aggregated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid. The second analysis is derived from a rain gauge network and interpolated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid using PRISM climatology. The third analysis is derived from a rain gauge network where rain gauges are assigned static pre-determined weights to derive a uniform mean areal precipitation that is applied over a catchment on a ¼ HRAP grid. To assess the effect of different QPE analyses on the accuracy of RDHM simulations and to potentially identify a preferred analysis for operational use, each QPE was used to force RDHM to simulate stream flow for 20 USGS peak flow events. An evaluation of the RDHM simulations was focused on peak flow magnitude, peak flow timing, and event volume accuracy to be most relevant for operational use. Results showed RDHM simulations based on the observed rain gauge amounts were more accurate in simulating peak flow magnitude and event volume relative to the radar derived analysis. However this result was not consistent for all 20 events nor was it consistent for a few of the rainfall events where an annual peak flow was recorded at more than one USGS gage. Implications of this indicate that a more robust QPE forcing with the inclusion of uncertainty derived from the three analyses may provide a better input for simulating extreme peak flow events.

In-hospital management and outcomes of acute coronary syndromes in relation to prior history of heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hanfei; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Kornder, Jan M; Gyenes, Gabor T; Grondin, Francois R; Brieger, David; DeYoung, J Paul; Gallo, Richard; Yan, Andrew T

2016-06-01

The prognostic significance of prior heart failure in acute coronary syndromes has not been well studied. Accordingly, we evaluated the baseline characteristics, management patterns and clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes who had prior heart failure. The study population consisted of acute coronary syndrome patients in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events, expanded Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events and Canadian Registry of Acute Coronary Events between 1999 and 2008. Of the 13,937 eligible patients (mean age 66±13 years, 33% female and 28.3% with ST-elevation myocardial infarction), 1498 (10.7%) patients had a history of heart failure. Those with prior heart failure tended to be older, female and had lower systolic blood pressure, higher Killip class and creatinine on presentation. Prior heart failure was also associated with significantly worse left ventricular systolic function and lower rates of cardiac catheterization and coronary revascularization. The group with previous heart failure had significantly higher rates of acute decompensated heart failure, cardiogenic shock, myocardial (re)infarction and mortality in hospital. In multivariable analysis, prior heart failure remained an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.03, p=0.015). Prior heart failure was associated with high risk features on presentation and adverse outcomes including higher adjusted in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients. However, acute coronary syndrome patients with prior heart failure were less likely to receive evidence-based therapies, suggesting potential opportunities to target more intensive treatment to improve their outcome. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Property Values Associated with the Failure of Individual Links in a System with Multiple Weak and Strong Links.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, Jon C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie. [Engineering Mechanics Corp. of Columbus, OH (United States)

2018-02-01

Representations are developed and illustrated for the distribution of link property values at the time of link failure in the presence of aleatory uncertainty in link properties. The following topics are considered: (i) defining properties for weak links and strong links, (ii) cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for link failure time, (iii) integral-based derivation of CDFs for link property at time of link failure, (iv) sampling-based approximation of CDFs for link property at time of link failure, (v) verification of integral-based and sampling-based determinations of CDFs for link property at time of link failure, (vi) distributions of link properties conditional on time of link failure, and (vii) equivalence of two different integral-based derivations of CDFs for link property at time of link failure.

Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

1983-07-01

A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

A probabilistic approach for RIA fuel failure criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlo Vitanza, Dr.

2008-01-01

Substantial experimental data have been produced in support of the definition of the RIA safety limits for water reactor fuels at high burn up. Based on these data, fuel failure enthalpy limits can be derived based on methods having a varying degree of complexity. However, regardless of sophistication, it is unlikely that any deterministic approach would result in perfect predictions of all failure and non failure data obtained in RIA tests. Accordingly, a probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper, where in addition to a best estimate evaluation of the failure enthalpy, a RIA fuel failure probability distribution is defined within an enthalpy band surrounding the best estimate failure enthalpy. The band width and the failure probability distribution within this band are determined on the basis of the whole data set, including failure and non failure data and accounting for the actual scatter of the database. The present probabilistic approach can be used in conjunction with any deterministic model or correlation. For deterministic models or correlations having good prediction capability, the probability distribution will be sharply increasing within a narrow band around the best estimate value. For deterministic predictions of lower quality, instead, the resulting probability distribution will be broad and coarser

Acute Renal Failure due to Non-Traumatic Rhabdomyolysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nagehan Aslan

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Rhabdomyolysis is a musculoskeletal clinical and biochemical syndrome which is seen associated with traumatic and non-traumatic causes and is known as muscular dystrophy. Rhabdomyolysis which develops following crush-type trauma (Crush syndrome is rarely seen but is a well-known clinical event in the etiology of acute renal failure. Non-traumatic rhabdomyolysis is rare. The case is here presented of a patient who was diagnosed with rhabdomyolysis on presentation with acute renal failure and to whom repeated dialysis was applied.

Rationale and design of the Aquapheresis Versus Intravenous Diuretics and Hospitalization for Heart Failure (AVOID-HF) trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Costanzo, Maria Rosa; Negoianu, Daniel; Fonarow, Gregg C; Jaski, Brian E; Bart, Bradley A; Heywood, J Thomas; Nabut, Jose L; Schollmeyer, Michael P

2015-09-01

In patients hospitalized with acutely decompensated heart failure, unresolved signs and symptoms of fluid overload have been consistently associated with poor outcomes. Regardless of dosing and type of administration, intravenous loop diuretics have not reduced heart failure events or mortality in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure. The results of trials comparing intravenous loop diuretics to mechanical fluid removal by isolated venovenous ultrafiltration have yielded conflicting results. Studies evaluating early decongestive strategies have shown that ultrafiltration removed more fluid and was associated with fewer heart failure-related rehospitalization than intravenous loop diuretics. In contrast, when used in the setting of worsening renal function, ultrafiltration was associated with poorer renal outcomes and no reduction in heart failure events. The AVOID-HF trial seeks to determine if an early strategy of ultrafiltration in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure is associated with fewer heart failure events at 90 days compared with a strategy based on intravenous loop diuretics. Study subjects from 40 highly experienced institutions are randomized to either early ultrafiltration or intravenous loop diuretics. In both treatment arms, fluid removal therapies are adjusted according to the patients' hemodynamic condition and renal function. The study was unilaterally terminated by the sponsor in the absence of futility and safety concerns after the enrollment of 221 subjects, or 27% of the originally planned sample size of 810 patients. The AVOID-HF trial's principal aim is to compare the safety and efficacy of ultrafiltration vs that of intravenous loop diuretics in patients hospitalized with acutely decompensated heart failure. Because stepped treatment approaches are applied in both ultrafiltration and intravenous loop diuretics groups and the primary end point is time to first heart failure event within 90 days, it is hoped that

Common cause failure rate estimates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steverson, J.A.; Atwood, C.L.

1982-01-01

Common cause fault rates for diesel generators in nuclear power plants are estimated, using Licensee Event Reports for the years 1976 through 1978. The binomial failure rate method, used for obtaining the estimates, is briefly explained. Issues discussed include correct classification of common cause events, grouping of the events into homogeneous data subsets, and dealing with plant-to-plant variation

Using variable transformations to perform common event analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrell, R.B.

1977-01-01

Any analytical method for studying the effect of common events on the behavior of a system is considered as being a form of common event analysis. The particular common events that are involved often represent quite different phenomena, and this has led to the development of different kinds of common event analysis. For example, common mode failure analysis, common cause analysis, critical location analysis, etc., are all different kinds of common event analysis for which the common events involved represent different phenomena. However, the problem that must be solved for each of these different kinds of common event analysis is essentially the same: Determine the effect of common events on the behavior of a system. Thus, a technique that is useful in achieving one kind of common event analysis is often useful in achieving other kinds of common event analysis

Procedures for treating common cause failures in safety and reliability studies: Analytical background and techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Fleming, K.N.; Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Worledge, D.H.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1989-01-01

Volume I of this report presents a framework for the inclusion of the impact of common cause failures in risk and reliability evaluations. Common cause failures are defined as that subset of dependent failures for which causes are not explicitly included in the logic model as basic events. The emphasis here is on providing procedures for a practical, systematic approach that can be used to perform and clearly document the analysis. The framework and the methods discussed for performing the different stages of the analysis integrate insights obtained from engineering assessments of the system and the historical evidence from multiple failure events into a systematic, reproducible, and defensible analysis. This document, Volume 2, contains a series of appendices that provide additional background and methodological detail on several important topics discussed in Volume I

Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, also included are events reported involving byproduct material which is exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, alcohol and drugs, and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Dam failure analysis for the Lago de Matrullas Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Sierra, Heriberto; Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed a hydrologic and hydraulic study to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam, located within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí. The hydrologic study yielded outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago de Matrullas and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) event, (2) a 24-hour PMP event, and (3) a 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated the hypothetical dam failure of Lago de Matrullas using hypothetical flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study and selected dam breach parameters. The flood wave resulting from the failure was downstream-routed through the lower reaches of the Río Matrullas, the Río Toro Negro, and the Río Grande de Manatí for determination of water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” (no precipitation) conditions. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and the River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was performed using the unsteady-state flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.

Reducing the incidence of adverse events in anesthesia practice

OpenAIRE

BELAVIĆ, MATIJA; LONČARIĆ-KATUŠIN, MIRJANA; ŽUNIĆ, JOSIP

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: adverse event during anesthesia is defined as an event that may result in the development of complications and is caused by human error, failure of the apparatus, the selected anesthetic techniques and individual reaction of the patient. Timely detection of adverse events prevents complications and their analysis through the register of the same to the adoption of preventive and remedial measures. Materials and methods:The Department of Anesthesiology in General...

Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

2004-10-01

As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

OPDE-The international pipe failure data exchange project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, Bengt [OPDE Clearinghouse, 16917 S. Orchid Flower Trail, Vail, AZ 85641-2701 (United States)], E-mail: boylydell@msn.com; Riznic, Jovica [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Operational Engineering Assessment Division, PO Box 1046, Station B, Ottawa, Ont. K1P 5S9 (Canada)], E-mail: jovica.riznic@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca

2008-08-15

Certain member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and development (OECD) in 2002 established the OECD pipe failure data exchange project (OPDE) to produce an international database on the piping service experience applicable to commercial nuclear power plants. OPDE is operated under the umbrella of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). The Project collects pipe failure data including service-induced wall thinning, part through-wall crack, pinhole leak, leak, and rupture/severance (i.e., events involving large through-wall flow rates up to and beyond the make-up capacity of engineered safeguards systems). The part through-wall events include degradation in excess of design code allowable for pipe wall thinning or crack depth. OPDE also addresses such degradation that could have generic implications regarding the reliability of in-service inspection. Currently the OPDE database includes approximately 3,700 records on pipe failure affecting ASME Code Class 1 through 3 and non-safety-related (non-Code) piping. This paper presents the motivations and objectives behind the establishment of the OPDE project. The paper also summarizes the unique data quality considerations that are associated with the reporting and recording of piping component degradation and failure. An overview of the database content is included to place it in perspective relative to past efforts to systematically collect and evaluate service experience data on piping performance. Finally, a brief summary is given of current database application studies.

OPDE-The international pipe failure data exchange project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, Bengt; Riznic, Jovica

2008-01-01

Certain member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and development (OECD) in 2002 established the OECD pipe failure data exchange project (OPDE) to produce an international database on the piping service experience applicable to commercial nuclear power plants. OPDE is operated under the umbrella of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). The Project collects pipe failure data including service-induced wall thinning, part through-wall crack, pinhole leak, leak, and rupture/severance (i.e., events involving large through-wall flow rates up to and beyond the make-up capacity of engineered safeguards systems). The part through-wall events include degradation in excess of design code allowable for pipe wall thinning or crack depth. OPDE also addresses such degradation that could have generic implications regarding the reliability of in-service inspection. Currently the OPDE database includes approximately 3,700 records on pipe failure affecting ASME Code Class 1 through 3 and non-safety-related (non-Code) piping. This paper presents the motivations and objectives behind the establishment of the OPDE project. The paper also summarizes the unique data quality considerations that are associated with the reporting and recording of piping component degradation and failure. An overview of the database content is included to place it in perspective relative to past efforts to systematically collect and evaluate service experience data on piping performance. Finally, a brief summary is given of current database application studies

Anthology of the Development of Radiation Transport Tools as Applied to Single Event Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, R. A.; Weller, R. A.; Akkerman, A.; Barak, J.; Culpepper, W.; Duzellier, S.; Foster, C.; Gaillardin, M.; Hubert, G.; Jordan, T.; Jun, I.; Koontz, S.; Lei, F.; McNulty, P.; Mendenhall, M. H.; Murat, M.; Nieminen, P.; O'Neill, P.; Raine, M.; Reddell, B.; Saigné, F.; Santin, G.; Sihver, L.; Tang, H. H. K.; Truscott, P. R.; Wrobel, F.

2013-06-01

This anthology contains contributions from eleven different groups, each developing and/or applying Monte Carlo-based radiation transport tools to simulate a variety of effects that result from energy transferred to a semiconductor material by a single particle event. The topics span from basic mechanisms for single-particle induced failures to applied tasks like developing websites to predict on-orbit single event failure rates using Monte Carlo radiation transport tools.

Distributions of component failure rates, estimated from LER data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1985-01-01

Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter γ distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of γs. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single γ distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution

Risk factors for oral methotrexate failure in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from a UK prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bluett, James; Sergeant, Jamie C; MacGregor, Alex J; Chipping, Jacqueline R; Marshall, Tarnya; Symmons, Deborah P M; Verstappen, Suzanne M M

2018-03-20

Oral methotrexate (MTX) is the first-line therapy for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, approximately one quarter of patients discontinue MTX within 12 months. MTX failure, defined as MTX cessation or the addition of another anti-rheumatic drug, is usually due adverse event(s) and/or inefficacy. The aims of this study were to evaluate the rate and predictors of oral MTX failure. Subjects were recruited from the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR), a primary care-based inception cohort of patients with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). Subjects were eligible if they commenced MTX as their first DMARD and were recruited between 2000 and 2008. Patient-reported reasons for MTX failure were recorded and categorised as adverse event, inefficacy or other. The addition of a second DMARD during the study period was categorised as failure due to inefficacy. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess potential predictors of MTX failure, accounting for competing risks. A total of 431 patients were eligible. The probability of patients remaining on MTX at 2 years was 82%. Competing risk analysis revealed that earlier MTX failure due to inefficacy was associated with rheumatoid factor (RF) positivity, younger age at symptom onset and higher baseline disease activity (DAS-28). MTX cessation due to an adverse event was less likely in the RF-positive cohort. RF-positive inflammatory polyarthritis patients who are younger with higher baseline disease activity have an increased risk of MTX failure due to inefficacy. Such patients may require combination therapy as a first-line treatment.

Core Competencies and the Prevention of School Failure and Early School Leaving

Science.gov (United States)

Bradshaw, Catherine P.; O'Brennan, Lindsey M.; McNeely, Clea A.

2008-01-01

There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase…

Lecture notes: meantime to failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanlen, R.C.

1976-01-01

A method is presented which affects the Quality Assurance Engineer's place in management decision making by giving him a working parameter to base sound engineering and management decisions. The theory used in Reliability Engineering to determine the mean-time-to-failure of a component or system is reviewed. The method presented derives the probability density function for the parameter of the exponential distribution. The exponential distribution is commonly used by industry to determine the reliability of a component or system when the failure rate is assumed to be constant. Some examples of N Reactor performance data are used. To be specific: The ball system data with 4.9 x 10 6 unit hours of service and 7 individual failures indicates a demonstrated 98.8 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period, and the diesel starts data with 7.2 x 10 5 unit hours of service and 1 failure indicates a demonstrated 94.4 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period

Study of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability through the fault tree analysis and common cause failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrado, C.A.

1991-06-01

The present essay offers a comprehensive research of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability, including Fault Tree Analysis and Common Cause Failures (CCF) treatment. The study is developed within the Event Tree perspective that considers the loss of external electrical power of the initiating event. The event was constructed by the Safety Evaluations Division of the Ezeiza Atomic Center in Argentina. According to the Event Tree, the research includes system demand during plant operation with 132 KV and emergency generation (Diesel motor generators). The system unavailability assessment is approached in two different ways: a) Considering independent failures only. b) Taking into account the existence of Common Cause Events, and modeling dependent failures. The Fault Tree quantification is played using the AIEA PSAPACK Code. The assessment data base is compiled from plant specific records and generic data bases like TECDOC 478. After Fault Tree model logic development, some general procedures used in common cause failures treating are applied to pick up another set of solutions. The results of the study are: a) Four Fault Trees have been developed to model the abovementioned system: 132 KV and emergency generation, both including and excluding CCF. b) The following unavailability values were obtained: 132 KV independent failures only: 7 10 -4 . Emergency generation independent failures only: 1.53 10 -2 . 132 KV dependent and independent failures: 3.6 10 -3 . Emergency generation dependent and independent failures: 1.74 10 -2 . The major conclusions obtained from the precedent results are: a) When using 132 KV system configuration, minimal cut sets involving common cause failures represents 81%from total system unavailability. b) The dependent failures treatment is an important task to be considered in safety assessments in order to reach more realistic values. (Author) [es

Aquapheresis Versus Intravenous Diuretics and Hospitalizations for Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Costanzo, Maria Rosa; Negoianu, Daniel; Jaski, Brian E; Bart, Bradley A; Heywood, James T; Anand, Inder S; Smelser, James M; Kaneshige, Alan M; Chomsky, Don B; Adler, Eric D; Haas, Garrie J; Watts, James A; Nabut, Jose L; Schollmeyer, Michael P; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-02-01

The AVOID-HF (Aquapheresis versus Intravenous Diuretics and Hospitalization for Heart Failure) trial tested the hypothesis that patients hospitalized for HF treated with adjustable ultrafiltration (AUF) would have a longer time to first HF event within 90 days after hospital discharge than those receiving adjustable intravenous loop diuretics (ALD). Congestion in hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients portends unfavorable outcomes. The AVOID-HF trial, designed as a multicenter, 1-to-1 randomized study of 810 hospitalized HF patients, was terminated unilaterally and prematurely by the sponsor (Baxter Healthcare, Deerfield, Illinois) after enrollment of 224 patients (27.5%). Aquadex FlexFlow System (Baxter Healthcare) was used for AUF. A Clinical Events Committee, blinded to the randomized treatment, adjudicated whether 90-day events were due to HF. A total of 110 patients were randomized to AUF and 114 to ALD. Baseline characteristics were similar. Estimated days to first HF event for the AUF and ALD group were, respectively, 62 and 34 (p = 0.106). At 30 days, compared with the ALD group, the AUF group had fewer HF and cardiovascular events. Renal function changes were similar. More AUF patients experienced an adverse effect of special interest (p = 0.018) and a serious study product-related adverse event (p = 0.026). The 90-day mortality was similar. Compared with the ALD group, the AUF group trended toward a longer time to first HF event within 90 days and fewer HF and cardiovascular events. More patients in the AUF group experienced special interest or serious product-related adverse event. Due to the trial's untimely termination, additional AUF investigation is warranted. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events 1997-2015

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Nancy Ellen [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schroeder, John Alton [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-07-01

Loss of offsite power (LOOP) can have a major negative impact on a power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience during calendar years 1997 through 2015. LOOP events during critical operation that do not result in a reactor trip, are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. Emergency diesel generator reliability is also considered (failure to start, failure to load and run, and failure to run more than 1 hour). There is an adverse trend in LOOP durations. The previously reported adverse trend in LOOP frequency was not statistically significant for 2006-2015. Grid-related LOOPs happen predominantly in the summer. Switchyard-centered LOOPs happen predominantly in winter and spring. Plant-centered and weather-related LOOPs do not show statistically significant seasonality. The engineering analysis of LOOP data shows that human errors have been much less frequent since 1997 than in the 1986 -1996 time period.

Experimental study of single event burnout and single event gate rupture in power MOSFETs and IGBT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Benqi; Wang Yanping; Geng Bin

2001-01-01

An experimental study was carried out to determine the single event burnout and single event gate rupture sensitivities in power MOSFETs and IGBT which were exposed to heavy ions from 252 Cf source. The test method, test results, a description of observed burnout current waveforms and a discussion of a possible failure mechanism were presented. Current measurements have been performed with a specially designed circuit. The test results include the observed dependence upon applied drain or gate to source bias and versus with external capacitors and limited resistors

Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

2012-12-01

Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model

A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

1998-10-01

Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

A Fourier analysis of extreme events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

2014-01-01

The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

Defense against common-mode failures in protection system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyman, R.H.; Johnson, G.L.

1998-01-01

The introduction of digital instrumentation and control into reactor safety systems creates a heightened concern about common-mode failure. This paper discusses the concern and methods of cope with the concern. Common-mode failures have been a 'fact-of-life' in existing systems. The informal introduction of defense-in-depth and diversity (D-in-D and D) - coupled with the fact that hardware common-mode failures are often distributed in time - has allowed systems to deal with past common-mode failures. However, identical software operating in identical redundant systems presents the potential for simultaneous failure. Consequently, the use of digital systems raises the concern about common-mode failure to a new level. A more methodical approach to mitigating common-mode failure is needed to address these concerns. Purposeful introduction of D-in-D and D has been used as a defense against common-mode failure in reactor protection systems. At least two diverse systems are provided to mitigate any potential initiating event. Additionally, diverse displays and controls are provided to allow the operator to monitor plant status and manually initiate engineered safety features. A special form of common-mode failure analysis called 'defense-in-depth and diversity analysis' has been developed to identify possible common-mode failure vulnerabilities in digital systems. An overview of this analysis technique is provided. (author)

Defense against common-mode failures in protection system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyman, R.H.; Johnson, G.L.

1997-01-01

The introduction of digital instrumentation and control into reactor safety systems creates a heightened concern about common-mode failure. This paper discusses the concern and methods to cope with the concern. Common-mode failures have been a ''fact-of-life'' in existing systems. The informal introduction of defense-in-depth and diversity (D-in-D ampersand D)-coupled with the fact that hardware common-mode failures are often distributed in time-has allowed systems to deal with past common-mode failures. However, identical software operating in identical redundant systems presents the potential for simultaneous failure. Consequently, the use of digital systems raises the concern about common-mode failure to a new level. A more methodical approach to mitigating common-mode failure is needed to address these concerns. Purposeful introduction of D-in-D ampersand D has been used as a defense against common-mode failure in reactor protection systems. At least two diverse systems are provided to mitigate any potential initiating event. Additionally, diverse displays and controls are provided to allow the operator to monitor plant status and manually initiate engineered safety features. A special form of conimon-mode failure analysis called ''defense-in-depth and diversity analysis'' has been developed to identify possible conimon-mode failure vulnerabilities in digital systems. An overview of this analysis technique is provided

Survey of potential light water reactor fuel rod failure mechanisms and damage limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Courtright, E.L.

1979-07-01

The findings and conclusions are presented of a survey to evaluate current information applicable to the development of fuel rod damage and failure limits for light water reactor fuel elements. The survey includes a review of past fuel failures, and identifies potential damage and failure mechanisms for both steady state operating conditions and postulated accident events. Possible relationships between the various damage and failure mechanisms are also proposed. The report identifies limiting criteria where possible, but concludes that sufficient data are not currently available in many important areas

Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

Procedures for treating common cause failures in safety and reliability studies: Procedural framework and examples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Fleming, K.N.; Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Worledge, D.H.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1988-01-01

This report presents a framework for the inclusion of the impact of common cause failures in risk and reliability evaluations. Common cause failures are defined as that cutset of dependent failures for which causes are not explicitly included in the logic model as basic events. The emphasis here is on providing procedures for a practical, systematic approach that can be used to perform and clearly document the analysis. The framework comprises four major stages: (1) System Logic Model Development; (2) Identification of Common Cause Component Groups; (3) Common Cause Modeling and Data Analysis; and (4) System Quantification and Interpretation of Results. The framework and the methods discussed for performing the different stages of the analysis integrate insights obtained from engineering assessments of the system and the historical evidence from multiple failure events into a systematic, reproducible, and defensible analysis. 22 figs., 34 tabs

Seismically induced common cause failures in PSA of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

1991-01-01

In this paper, a research project on the seismically induced common cause failures in nuclear power plants performed for Toshiba Corp. is described. The objective of this research was to develop the procedure for estimating the common cause failure probabilities of different nuclear power plant components using the combination of seismic experience data, the review of sources of dependency, sensitivity studies and engineering judgement. The research project consisted of three tasks: the investigation of damage instances in past earthquakes, the analysis of multiple failures and their root causes, and the development of the methodology for assessing seismically induced common cause failures. The details of these tasks are explained. In this paper, the works carried out in the third task are described. A methodology for treating common cause failures and the correlation between component failures is formulated; it highlights the modeling of event trees taking into account common cause failures and the development of fault trees considering the correlation between component failures. The overview of seismic PSA, the quantification methods for dependent failures and Latin Hypercube sampling method are described. (K.I.)

Anthology of the development of radiation transport tools as applied to single event effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkerman, A.; Barak, J.; Murat, M.; Duzellier, S.; Hubert, G.; Gaillardin, M.; Raine, M.; Jordan, T.; Jun, I.; Koontz, S.; Reddell, B.; O'Neill, P.; Foster, C.; Culpepper, W.; Lei, F.; McNulty, P.; Nieminen, P.; Saigne, F.; Wrobel, F.; Santin, G.; Sihver, L.; Tang, H.H.K.; Truscott, P.R.

2013-01-01

This anthology contains contributions from eleven different groups, each developing and/or applying Monte Carlo-based radiation transport tools to simulate a variety of effects that result from energy transferred to a semiconductor material by a single particle event. The topics span from basic mechanisms for single-particle induced failures to applied tasks like developing web sites to predict on-orbit single event failure rates using Monte Carlo radiation transport tools. (authors)

Hypopituitarism presenting as congestive heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Giri

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Sheehan's syndrome (SS develops as a result of ischemic pituitary necrosis due to severe postpartum hemorrhage and is characterized by various degrees of hypopituitarism. Although the occurrence of SS is now rare, it should still be considered in any woman with a history of peripartum hemorrhage who develops manifestations of pituitary hormone deficiency any time following the event. Appropriate hormone replacement therapy results in marked clinical improvement. We present an unusual case of SS in a young lady who continued to have normal menstruation after the index event, had two spontaneous pregnancies, and was diagnosed only 11 years later when she presented to us with acute heart failure.

Distributions of component failure rates estimated from LER data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1985-01-01

Past analyses of Licensee Event Report (LER) data have noted that component failure rates vary from plant to plant, and have estimated the distributions by two-parameter gamma distributions. In this study, a more complicated distributional form is considered, a mixture of gammas. This could arise if the plants' failure rates cluster into distinct groups. The method was applied to selected published LER data for diesel generators, pumps, valves, and instrumentation and control assemblies. The improved fits from using a mixture rather than a single gamma distribution were minimal, and not statistically significant. There seem to be two possibilities: either explanatory variables affect the failure rates only in a gradual way, not a qualitative way; or, for estimating individual component failure rates, the published LER data have been analyzed to the limit of resolution. 9 refs

Preparing for Failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, L.T.; Manson, A.W.

2006-01-01

Risk management is one of the most complex project management processes, requiring rigorous management and discipline. Unfortunately, for many organizations, the risk management process has become contaminated by poor management practices, an absence of meaningful risk assessments, meaningless risk event descriptions, incomplete and vague risk impact analyses, poor follow through on risk mitigation activities and a general lack of attention to accuracy, completeness and quality. At this point, the risk register, instead of being a key tool used by the organization to systematically identify and eliminate risk, while exploiting opportunities, has become a list of pre-prepared excuses based on the repeat of failures encountered on past projects. However, organizations are not condemned to repeat past failures. By returning to the basics of risk management, and through the application of some basic management guidelines, the risk register-instead of being an 'Excuse Register' - can become the cornerstone of a comprehensive risk management program to promote a systematic, pro-active approach within an organization that will result in accomplishing mitigation activities, reducing risk and gaining advantage through opportunities. (authors)

Robust handling of dynamics and multiple failures in a diagnostic event analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, F.E.; Kramer, M.A.

1991-01-01

MIDAS diagnoses malfunctions in continuous chemical and refinery processes using a plant-independent strategy based on qualitative and quantitative process models. MIDAS specifically addresses problems not treated in past systems, including: process dynamics with control system responses, multiple faults and induced failures, and out-of-order and false alarms. This paper discusses both the structure of the process models and the diagnostic reasoning strategies employed by MIDAS

Psychological stress and short-term hospitalisations or death in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Endrighi, R.; Waters, A.J.; Gottlieb, S.S.; Harris, K.M.; Wawrzyniak, A.J.; Bekkouche, N.S.; Li, Y.; Kop, W.J.; Krantz, D.S.

2016-01-01

Objective Standard predictors do not fully explain variations in the frequency and timing of heart failure (HF) adverse events (AEs). Psychological stress can trigger acute cardiovascular (CV) events, but it is not known whether stress can precipitate AEs in patients with HF. We investigated

Three Dimensional Simulation of the Baneberry Nuclear Event

Science.gov (United States)

Lomov, Ilya N.; Antoun, Tarabay H.; Wagoner, Jeff; Rambo, John T.

2004-07-01

Baneberry, a 10-kiloton nuclear event, was detonated at a depth of 278 m at the Nevada Test Site on December 18, 1970. Shortly after detonation, radioactive gases emanating from the cavity were released into the atmosphere through a shock-induced fissure near surface ground zero. Extensive geophysical investigations, coupled with a series of 1D and 2D computational studies were used to reconstruct the sequence of events that led to the catastrophic failure. However, the geological profile of the Baneberry site is complex and inherently three-dimensional, which meant that some geological features had to be simplified or ignored in the 2D simulations. This left open the possibility that features unaccounted for in the 2D simulations could have had an important influence on the eventual containment failure of the Baneberry event. This paper presents results from a high-fidelity 3D Baneberry simulation based on the most accurate geologic and geophysical data available. The results are compared with available data, and contrasted against the results of the previous 2D computational studies.

Resource checking and event handling within the W7-X segment control framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laqua, Heike; Bluhm, Torsten; Heimann, Peter; Hennig, Christine; Kroiss, Hugo; Krom, Jon G.; Kühner, Georg; Lewerentz, Marc; Maier, Josef; Schacht, Jörg; Spring, Anett; Werner, Andreas; Zilker, Manfred

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Support for steady state fusion experiments. ► Off-normal event handling. ► Plasma event driven control. - Abstract: ITER, Wendelstein 7-X, LHD, and TORE SUPRA are experimental facilities designed to lead the way to steady state fusion devices. These experiments require strategies to sustain a discharge in case of unforeseen events, e.g. heat overloads of plasma facing components or the failure of a plasma heating source. A recovery strategy is needed to get the discharge back for physics exploitation. For this purpose the W7-X segment control framework provides means for automated event detection along with options to formulate and initiate a recovery strategy. Besides handling of failures and degradation there are events that represent a desired plasma physical effect. An example for this kind of event is a transition to from Low to High-Confinement mode. These events indicate that a certain plasma state is reached and scientific examination can be altered thus enabling event-driven multiple experiments per discharge. Examples of both kinds of events will be presented and compared to other approaches in the community.

Estimating changes in cardiac output using an implanted hemodynamic monitor in heart failure patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ståhlberg, Marcus; Damgaard, Morten; Ersgård, David

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate an algorithm that estimates changes in cardiac output (CO) from right ventricular (RV) pressure waveforms derived from an implantable hemodynamic monitor (IHM) in heart failure patients. DESIGN: Twelve heart failure patients (NYHA II-III, EF 32......%) with an implantable hemodynamic monitor (Chronicle) were included in this study. Changes in cardiac output were provoked by body position change at rest (left lateral supine, horizontal supine, sitting, and standing) and a steady state bicycle exercise at 20 watts. Estimated CO derived from the IHM (CO...... was -0.39 L/min (11%). Limits of agreement were +/-1.56 L/min and relative error was 21%. CONCLUSIONS: A simple algorithm based on RV pressure wave form characteristics derived from an IHM can be used to estimate changes in CO in heart failure patients. These findings encourage further research aiming...

Economic impact of cultural events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Saayman

2004-11-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of events can hardly be described as a new one.  The aim of this paper is to determine the economic benefits of three major cultural events in South Africa to the host community.  Measuring the economic impact normally entails some estimation of the cash injection into a region by visitors and applying the relevant multiplier to arrive at a monetary estimate of the economic impact.  But few regions or municipal areas have detailed economic data to construct a type of input-output model and derive a multiplier.  The purpose of the methods used in this research were firstly to determine the estimated cash injection, secondly to estimate the size of leakages in the local economy and thirdly to derive an appropriate multiplier to estimate the economic impact of the event.

Analysis of dependent failures in the ORNL precursor study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, G.M.

1985-01-01

The study of dependent failures (or common cause/mode failures) in the safety assessment of potentially hazardous plant is one of the significant areas of uncertainty in performing probabilistic safety studies. One major reason for this uncertainty is that data on dependent failures is apparently not readily available in sufficient quantity to assist in the development and validation of models. The incident reports that were compiled for the ORNL study on Precursors to Severe Core Damage Accidents (NUREG/CR-2497) provide an opportunity to look at the importance of dependent failures in the most significant incidents of recent reactor operations, to look at the success of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods in accounting for the contribution of dependent failures, and to look at the dependent failure incidents with the aim of identifying the most significant problem areas. In this paper an analysis has been made of the incidents compiled in NUREG/CR-2497 and events involving multiple failures which were not independent have been identified. From this analysis it is clear that dependent failures are a very significant contributor to the precursor incidents. The method of enumeration of accident frequency used in NUREG-2497 can be shown to take account of dependent failures and this may be a significant factor contributing to the apparent difference between the precursor accident frequency and typical PRA frequencies

The significance of water hammer events to public dose from reactor accidents: A probabilistic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amico, P.J.; Ferrell, W.L.; Rubin, M.P.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic assessment was made of the effects on public dose of water hammer events in LWRs. The analysis utilized actual historical water hammer data to determine if the water hammer events contributed either to system failure rates or initiating event frequencies. Representative PRAs were used to see if changes in initiating events and/or system failures caused by water hammer resulted in new values for the dominant sequences in the PRAs. New core melt frequencies were determined and carried out to the subsequent increase in public dose. It is concluded that water hammer is not a significant problem with respect to risk to the public for either BWRs or PWRs. (orig./HP)

Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, John M.; Hill, Ashely D.; Beard, Bernard B.

2011-01-01

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise.

Failure-Avoidance: Parenting, the Achievement Environment of the Home and Strategies for Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ted

2004-01-01

This paper draws together the as yet nascent literature on the development of failure-avoidant patterns of behaviour. These are behaviours intended to minimise risk to self-worth in the event of failure, thereby avoiding the negative impact of poor performance in terms of damage to self-worth. Self-worth protection, self-handicapping, impostor…

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Design of robust reliable control for T-S fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neutral type neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage delays: An event-triggered communication scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Syed Ali, M; Vadivel, R; Saravanakumar, R

2018-06-01

This study examines the problem of robust reliable control for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage terms. An event-triggered communication scheme. First, the randomly occurring actuator faults and their failures rates are governed by two sets of unrelated random variables satisfying certain probabilistic failures of every actuator, new type of distribution based event triggered fault model is proposed, which utilize the effect of transmission delay. Second, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model is adopted for the neural networks and the randomness of actuators failures is modeled in a Markov jump model framework. Third, to guarantee the considered closed-loop system is exponential mean square stable with a prescribed reliable control performance, a Markov jump event-triggered scheme is designed in this paper, which is the main purpose of our study. Fourth, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, employing Newton-Leibniz formulation and integral inequalities, several delay-dependent criteria for the solvability of the addressed problem are derived. The obtained stability criteria are stated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked numerically using the effective LMI toolbox in MATLAB. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and reduced conservatism of the proposed results over the existing ones, among them one example was supported by real-life application of the benchmark problem. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interim report on the state-of-the-art of solid-state motor controllers. Part 4. Failure-rate and failure-mode data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaross, R.A.

1983-09-01

An assessment of the reliability of solid-state motor controllers for nuclear power plants is made. Available data on failure-rate and failure-mode data for solid-state motor controllers based on industrial operating experience is meager; the data are augmented by data on other solid-state power electronic devices that are shown to have components similar to those found in solid-state motor controllers. In addition to large nonnuclear solid-state adjustable-speed motor drives, the reliability of nuclear plant inverter systems and high-voltage solid-state dc transmission-line converters is assessed. Licensee Event Report analyses from several sources, the open literature, and personal communications are used to determine the realiability of solid-state devices typical of those expected to be used in nuclear power plants in terms of failures per hour

Knowledge representation methods for early failure detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scherer, K.P.; Stiller, P.

1990-01-01

To supervise technical processes like nuclear power plants, it is very important to detect failure modes in an early stage. In the nuclear research center at Karlsruhe an expert system is developed, embedded in a computer network of autonomous computers, which are used for intelligent prepocessing. Events, process data and actual parameter values are stored in slots of special frames in the knowledge base of the expert system. Both rule based and fact based knowledge representations are employed to generate cause consequence chains of failure states. By on-line surveillance of the reactor process, the slots of the frames are dynamically actualized. Immediately after the evaluation, the inference engine starts in the special domain experts (triggered by metarules from a manager) and detects the correspondend failures or anomaly state. Matching the members of the chain and regarding a catalogue of instructions and messages, what is to do by the operator, future failure states can be estimated and propagation can be prohibited. That means qualitative failure prediction based on cause consequence in the static part of the knowledge base. Also, a time series of physical data can be used to predict on analytical way future process state and to continue such a theoretical propagation with matching the cause consuquence chain

The case for statin therapy in chronic heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Harst, Pim; Boehm, Michael; van Gilst, Wiek H.; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.

Both primary and secondary prevention studies have provided a wealth of evidence that statin therapy effectively reduces cardiovascular events. However, this general statement on the efficacy and safety of statin treatment has not been validated in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

1988-01-01

This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, the Miscellaneous category includes a few events which involve either source material, byproduct material, or natural uranium which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, pre-1990 alcohol and drugs (involving reactor operators, security force members, or management persons), and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

[Brain oedema and acute liver failure].

Science.gov (United States)

Spahr, L

2003-04-01

Brain oedema leading to intracranial hypertension occurs in a significant proportion of patients with acute liver failure in whom it is a leading cause of death. Although precise pathogenic mechanisms associated to this severe complication remain incompletely understood, increasing evidence points to gut-derived neurotoxins including ammonia as key mediators in cerebral osmotic and perfusion disturbances. The management of brain oedema and intracranial hypertension requires a multidisciplinar approach in a center where liver transplantation is available, as this option is the only treatment modality that provides improvement in outcome. This article reviews the most common causes of acute liver failure and the standard of supportive care management, and describes future potential therapeutic aspects of brain oedema and intracranial hypertension.

A Markov Model for Commen-Cause Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Platz, Ole

1984-01-01

A continuous time four-state Markov chain is shown to cover several of the models that have been used for describing dependencies between failures of components in redundant systems. Among these are the models derived by Marshall and Olkin and by Freund and models for one-out-of-three and two...

Is thrombosis a contributor to heart failure pathophysiology? Possible mechanisms, therapeutic opportunities, and clinical investigation challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zannad, F.; Stough, W.G.; Regnault, V.; Gheorghiade, M.; Deliargyris, E.; Gibson, C.M.; Agewall, S.; Berkowitz, S.D.; Burton, P.; Calvo, G.; Goldstein, S.; Verheugt, F.W.A.; Koglin, J.; O'Connor, C.M.

2013-01-01

Thrombotic events (coronary thrombosis, venous thromboembolism, intraventricular thrombosis, intracranial and systemic thromboembolism) occur frequently in patients with heart failure. These events may be precipitated by several mechanisms including hypercoagulability through enhancement of

Incorporating Cyber Layer Failures in Composite Power System Reliability Evaluations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuqi Han

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to analyze the impacts of cyber layer failures (i.e., protection failures and monitoring failures on the reliability evaluation of composite power systems. The reliability and availability of the cyber layer and its protection and monitoring functions with various topologies are derived based on a reliability block diagram method. The availability of the physical layer components are modified via a multi-state Markov chain model, in which the component protection and monitoring strategies, as well as the cyber layer topology, are simultaneously considered. Reliability indices of composite power systems are calculated through non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation. Case studies demonstrate that operational reliability downgrades in cyber layer function failure situations. Moreover, protection function failures have more significant impact on the downgraded reliability than monitoring function failures do, and the reliability indices are especially sensitive to the change of the cyber layer function availability in the range from 0.95 to 1.

Health information systems: failure, success and improvisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Heeks, Richard

2006-02-01

The generalised assumption of health information systems (HIS) success is questioned by a few commentators in the medical informatics field. They point to widespread HIS failure. The purpose of this paper was therefore to develop a better conceptual foundation for, and practical guidance on, health information systems failure (and success). Literature and case analysis plus pilot testing of developed model. Defining HIS failure and success is complex, and the current evidence base on HIS success and failure rates was found to be weak. Nonetheless, the best current estimate is that HIS failure is an important problem. The paper therefore derives and explains the "design-reality gap" conceptual model. This is shown to be robust in explaining multiple cases of HIS success and failure, yet provides a contingency that encompasses the differences which exist in different HIS contexts. The design-reality gap model is piloted to demonstrate its value as a tool for risk assessment and mitigation on HIS projects. It also throws into question traditional, structured development methodologies, highlighting the importance of emergent change and improvisation in HIS. The design-reality gap model can be used to address the problem of HIS failure, both as a post hoc evaluative tool and as a pre hoc risk assessment and mitigation tool. It also validates a set of methods, techniques, roles and competencies needed to support the dynamic improvisations that are found to underpin cases of HIS success.

Common cause failure: enhancing defenses against root cause and coupling factor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaushik, Poorva; Kim, Sok Chul [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

A Common Cause Failure(CCF) event refers to a specific class of dependent events that result from co-existence of two main factors: Susceptibility of components to fail or become unavailable due to particular root cause of failure, and coupling factor coupling mechanism) that creates the condition for multiple components getting affected. PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) operating experience of Nuclear Power Plants have demonstrated that dependent events such as CCF events are major contributor to risk during operation. From cost-benefit consideration, putting significant design modifications in place to prevent CCF would not be desirable in terms of risk management regulatory effectiveness and efficiency. The aim of this study was to propose feasible defenses against CCF from cost benefit consideration to enhance the safety. This study provides the CDM and CFDM of EDG. Defenses employed against cause and coupling factor can be easily employed in operation and maintenance programme of NPP and are not an additional cost burden. Such enhancement of defense against the CCF can give a modest improvement in CDF. This approach is specifically helpful in plants that are already under operation and significant modifications are not economically feasible.

External events analysis of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liaukonis, Mindaugas; Augutis, Juozas

1999-01-01

This paper presents analysis of external events impact on the safe operation of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) safety systems. Analysis was based on the probabilistic estimation and modelling of the external hazards. The screening criteria were applied to the number of external hazards. The following external events such as aircraft failure on the INPP, external flooding, fire, extreme winds requiring further bounding study were analysed. Mathematical models were developed and event probabilities were calculated. External events analysis showed rather limited external events danger to Ignalina NPP. Results of the analysis were compared to analogous analysis in western NPPs and no great differences were specified. Calculations performed show that external events can not significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation. (author)

Analysis of internal events for the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde nuclear power station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R.

1993-01-01

This volume presents the results of the starter event analysis and the event tree analysis for the Unit 1 of the Laguna Verde nuclear power station. The starter event analysis includes the identification of all those internal events which cause a disturbance to the normal operation of the power station and require mitigation. Those called external events stay beyond the reach of this study. For the analysis of the Laguna Verde power station eight transient categories were identified, three categories of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) inside the container, a LOCA out of the primary container, as well as the vessel break. The event trees analysis involves the development of the possible accident sequences for each category of starter events. Events trees by systems for the different types of LOCA and for all the transients were constructed. It was constructed the event tree for the total loss of alternating current, which represents an extension of the event tree for the loss of external power transient. Also the event tree by systems for the anticipated transients without scram was developed (ATWS). The events trees for the accident sequences includes the sequences evaluation with vulnerable nucleus, that is to say those sequences in which it is had an adequate cooling of nucleus but the remoting systems of residual heat had failed. In order to model adequately the previous, headings were added to the event tree for developing the sequences until the point where be solved the nucleus state. This process includes: the determination of the failure pressure of the primary container, the evaluation of the environment generated in the reactor building as result of the container failure or cracked of itself, the determination of the localization of the components in the reactor building and the construction of boolean expressions to estimate the failure of the subordinated components to an severe environment. (Author)

Heart failure in geriatric outpatients: diagnosis, prognosis and treatment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oudejans-Mooijaart, I.

2012-01-01

The ageing of the population and improved survival following acute cardiac events have led to an increased prevalence of heart failure (HF), especially in the elderly. Establishing the presence of HF based only on signs and symptoms is often inaccurate. Additional investigations (e.g.

A neutral grounding metallic resistor failure in a 35 kV network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simić Ninoslav

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of observations and measurements of the impedance of the metal resistor for grounding neutral of the 35 kV network, before and after damaging event. The proposed measures are to be taken in order to eliminate a failure in this particular case, as well as the prevention of similar events.

Clinical presentation at first heart failure hospitalization does not predict recurrent heart failure admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina

2017-11-01

There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Negative Life Events Scale for Students (NLESS)

Science.gov (United States)

Buri, John R.; Cromett, Cristina E.; Post, Maria C.; Landis, Anna Marie; Alliegro, Marissa C.

2015-01-01

Rationale is presented for the derivation of a new measure of stressful life events for use with students [Negative Life Events Scale for Students (NLESS)]. Ten stressful life events questionnaires were reviewed, and the more than 600 items mentioned in these scales were culled based on the following criteria: (a) only long-term and unpleasant…

Importance of acute renal failure with ibuprofen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tufan F

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Fatih Tufan Sevket Yilmaz Training and Research Hospital, Geriatrics Unit, Yildirim, Bursa, TurkeyKuptniratsaikul et al report the efficacy of Curcuma domestica extracts in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis.1 One of my concerns about this well designed study is lack of one important adverse event assessment. One of the most important adverse effects of ibuprofen, which is a non-selective non-steroid anti-inflammatory drug, is acute renal failure.2 Although one of the exclusion criteria in this study is renal failure, especially in the elderly population, it is crucial to follow up kidney functions under non-steroid anti-inflammatory treatment.View original paper by Kuptniratsaikul and colleagues. 

Technology integration box beam failure study

Science.gov (United States)

Shuart, M. J.; Ambur, Damodar R.; Davis, D. D., Jr.; Davis, R. C.; Farley, G. L.; Lotts, C. G.; Wang, J. T.

1993-01-01

Composite structures have the potential to be cost-effective, structurally efficient primary aircraft structures. The Advanced Composites Technology (ACT) Program has the goal to develop the technology to exploit this potential for heavily loaded aircraft structures. As part of the ACT Program, Lockheed Aeronautical Systems Company completed the design and fabrication of the Technology Integration Box Beam (TIBB). The TIBB is an advanced composite prototype structure for the center wing section of the C-130 aircraft. Lockheed subjected the TIBB to downbending, upbending, torsion and combined upbending and torsion load conditions to verify the design. The TIBB failed at 83 percent of design ultimate load for the combined upbending and torsion load condition. The objective of this paper is to describe the mechanisms that led to the failure of the TIBB. The results of a comprehensive analytical and experimental study are presented. Analytical results include strain and deflection results from both a global analysis of the TIBB and a local analysis of the failure region. These analytical results are validated by experimental results from the TIBB tests. The analytical and experimental results from the TIBB tests are used to determine a sequence of events that resulted in failure of the TIBB. A potential cause of failure is high stresses in a stiffener runout region. Analytical and experimental results are also presented for a stiffener runout specimen that was used to simulate the TIBB failure mechanisms.

Practical guidance for statistical analysis of operational event data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1995-10-01

This report presents ways to avoid mistakes that are sometimes made in analysis of operational event data. It then gives guidance on what to do when a model is rejected, a list of standard types of models to consider, and principles for choosing one model over another. For estimating reliability, it gives advice on which failure modes to model, and moment formulas for combinations of failure modes. The issues are illustrated with many examples and case studies

The initiating events in the Loviisa nuclear power plant history

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoblom, K.

1987-01-01

During the 16 reactor years of Loviisa nuclear power plant operation no serious incident has endangered the high level of safety. The initiating events of plant incidents have been analyzed in order to get a view of plant operational safety experience. The initiating events have been placed in categories similar to those that EPRI uses. However, because of the very small number of scrams the study was extended to also cover transients with a relatively low safety importance in order to get more comprehensive statistics. Human errors, which contributed to 15% of the transients, were a special subject in this study. The conditions under which human failures occurred, and the nature and root causes of the human failures that caused the initiating events were analyzed. For future analyses it was noticed that it would be beneficial to analyze incidents immediately, to consult with the persons directly involved and to develop an international standard format for incident analyses

Fuel failure at the Laguna Verde unit 1- during Cycle 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espinosa Vega, Juan Manuel

1996-01-01

The present work describes the event occurred at the Laguna Verde nuclear power plants Unit 1 during its fourth cycle ensembles; the first failure, by means of a test of power suppression, and the second one, during the sipping accomplished in the four refuelling of the unit. Also it describes the re-evaluation of the event accomplished by the licenser, the manufacturer and the Mexican agency

Analysis of operation events for HFETR emergency diesel generator set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhiqiang; Ji Xifang; Deng Hong

2015-01-01

By the statistic analysis of the historical failure data of the emergency diesel generator set, the specific mode, the attribute, and the direct and root origin for each failure are reviewed and summarized. Considering the current status of the emergency diesel generator set, the preventive measures and solutions in terms of operation, handling and maintenance are proposed, and the potential events for the emergency diesel generator set are analyzed. (authors)

Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

2006-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

Elevated leukocyte count and adverse hospital events in patients with acute coronary syndromes: findings from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE).

Science.gov (United States)

Furman, Mark I; Gore, Joel M; Anderson, Fredrick A; Budaj, Andrzej; Goodman, Shaun G; Avezum, Avaro; López-Sendón, José; Klein, Werner; Mukherjee, Debabrata; Eagle, Kim A; Dabbous, Omar H; Goldberg, Robert J

2004-01-01

To examine the association between elevated leukocyte count and hospital mortality and heart failure in patients enrolled in the multinational, observational Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Elevated leukocyte count is associated with adverse hospital outcomes in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The association of this prognostic factor with hospital mortality and heart failure in patients with other acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is unclear. We examined the association between admission leukocyte count and hospital mortality and heart failure in 8269 patients presenting with an ACS. This association was examined separately in patients with ST-segment elevation AMI, non-ST-segment elevation AMI, and unstable angina. Leukocyte count was divided into 4 mutually exclusive groups (Q): Q1 12,000. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association between elevated leukocyte count and hospital events while accounting for the simultaneous effect of several potentially confounding variables. Increasing leukocyte count was significantly associated with hospital death (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% CI 2.1-3.6 for Q4 compared to Q2 [normal range]) and heart failure (OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.2-3.4) for patients presenting with ACS. This association was seen in patients with ST-segment elevation AMI (OR for hospital death 3.2, 95% CI 2.1-4.7; OR for heart failure 2.4, 95% CI 1.8-3.3), non-ST-segment elevation AMI (OR for hospital death 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.0; OR for heart failure 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5), or unstable angina (OR for hospital death 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.5; OR for heart failure 2.0, 95% CI 0.9-4.4). In men and women of all ages with the spectrum of ACS, initial leukocyte count is an independent predictor of hospital death and the development of heart failure.

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

Rockfall failure mechanisms in Yosemite Valley, California (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Matasci, Battista; Guerin, Antoine; Carrea, Dario; Stock, Greg M.; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Collins, Brian

2014-05-01

Rockfall hazard is especially high in Yosemite Valley, with tens of rockfalls inventoried every year. A rockfall on 5 October 2013 from Ahwiyah Point consisted of a volume of 740 cubic meters and occurred within the perimeter of a larger event on 28 March 2009 that released 25'400 cubic meters of rock (Zimmer et al., 2012). In both events (2009 and 2013), the initial rockfall volumes dislodged a second one approximately equivalent in size by impacting the cliff below the source area during the fall. Rock fragments of up to several cubic meters were deposited on the talus slope, damaging a heavily used and recently reconstructed hiking path. We performed extensive mapping of structural features for several cliffs of Yosemite Valley to improve the assessment of the most susceptible rockfall areas. In particular we mapped and characterized the main brittle structures, the exfoliation joints and the failure mechanisms of the past rockfalls. Several failure mechanisms exist in Yosemite including the propagation of brittle structures that may lead to tensile, planar sliding, wedge sliding or toppling failures. Frequently, topographically-parallel exfoliation joints and topographically-oblique discontinuities coexist, resulting in complex failures. We also developed a methodology to examine how the distribution of joints within the cliff faces of Yosemite Valley affects overall stability with respect to the identified failure mechanisms. For these analyses, we used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to collect high resolution point clouds of the vertical and overhanging rock faces throughout the Valley. This provided the necessary 3D data to identify the main joint sets, perform spacing and trace length measurements, and calculate volumes of previous and potential rockfalls. We integrated this information with stability calculations to identify the likely failure mechanisms for each area of cliff and to obtain the number of potential failures per square meter of cliff face

Application range affected by software failures in safety relevant instrumentation and control systems of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jopen, Manuela; Mbonjo, Herve; Sommer, Dagmar; Ulrich, Birte

2017-03-01

This report presents results that have been developed within a BMUB-funded research project (Promotion Code 3614R01304). The overall objective of this project was to broaden the knowledge base of GRS regarding software failures and their impact in software-based instrumentation and control (I and C) systems. To this end, relevant definitions and terms in standards and publications (DIN, IEEE standards, IAEA standards, NUREG publications) as well as in the German safety requirements for nuclear power plants were analyzed first. In particular, it was found that the term ''software fault'' is defined differently and partly contradictory in the considered literature sources. For this reason, a definition of software fault was developed on the basis of the software life cycle of software-based I and C systems within the framework of this project, which takes into account the various aspects relevant to software faults and their related effects. It turns out that software failures result from latent faults in a software-based control system, which can lead to a non-compliant behavior of a software-based I and C system. Hereby a distinction should be made between programming faults and specification faults. In a further step, operational experience with software failures in software-based I and C systems in nuclear facilities and in nonnuclear sector was investigated. The identified events were analyzed with regard to their cause and impacts and the analysis results were summarized. Based on the developed definition of software failure and on the COMPSIS-classification scheme for events related to software based I and C systems, the COCS-classification scheme was developed to classify events from operating experience with software failures, in which the events are classified according to the criteria ''cause'', ''affected system'', ''impact'' and ''CCF potential''. This classification scheme was applied to evaluate the events identified in the framework of this project

Relationship between age at natural menopause and risk of heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Iffat; Åkesson, Agneta; Wolk, Alicja

2015-01-01

We investigated whether younger age at natural menopause confers a risk of heart failure. We also examined a possible modifying effect of tobacco smoking. This study used the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort; 22,256 postmenopausal women with information on age at natural menopause were followed from 1997 through 2011. First event of heart failure was ascertained through the Swedish National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. During a mean follow-up of 13 years, we ascertained 2,532 first events of heart failure hospitalizations and deaths. The mean age at menopause was 51 years. Early natural menopause (40-45 y), compared with menopause at ages 50 to 54 years, was significantly associated with heart failure (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.64). In analyses stratified by smoking status, similar HRs were observed for this age group among never smokers (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.66) and ever smokers (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.78). Among ever smokers, increased incidence (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.47) of heart failure could be detected even among those who entered menopause at ages 46 to 49 years. We found a significant interaction between age at natural menopause and smoking (P = 0.019). This study indicates that women who experience early natural menopause are at increased risk for developing heart failure and that smoking can modify the association by increasing the risk even among women who enter menopause around ages 46 to 49 years.

Becoming a patient with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Stull, D E; Starling, R; Haas, G; Young, J B

1999-01-01

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the process of becoming a patient with heart failure, a process of identity formation. Are there clues in the patients' stories about heart failure that might give us a better idea of how patients adjust to heart failure and what heart failure means to them? Meanings that individuals attach to events or situations are central to development of identity and subsequent behaviors. Qualitative methods involving detailed interviews and grounded theory method were used in an outpatient cardiology department of a large health care facility in northeast Ohio. Twenty-one patients with a diagnosis of heart failure were conveniently selected and interviewed for this research. Patients were selected on the basis of having a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less and New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV. Other possible selection criteria (eg, VO(2Max ), walk test, or dyspnea) were not available for all patients and thus did not constitute consistent selection criteria. A broad net was cast for patients with varying characteristics to see if common processes and experiences existed regardless of the differences in clinical indicators. Patients were interviewed in the examining room as part of a regularly scheduled visit with their cardiologists. All interviews were tape recorded and fully transcribed. Field notes and relevant patient chart data (eg, age, sex, race, marital status, cause of heart failure, comorbidities, history of hospitalization, New York Heart Association functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction) were included in the transcribed interviews. The transcribed interview was read and responses were given initial conceptual codes. These coded passages were categorized according to more abstract categories or concepts and underlying processes that encompass them. This process continues until all relevant passages have been categorized and subsumed under higher-order (more

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

Dispersed trading and the prevention of market failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Porter, David C.; Tanggaard, Carsten; Weaver, Daniel G.

2008-01-01

With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight...... into this issue by examining trading behaviour at the Copenhagen Stock Exchange during a major blackout. We find that although market quality declined, markets remained functional and some price discovery occurred during the blackout period suggesting that the NOREX structure of interlinked trading systems...... combined with widely dispersed trading locations may be a viable means of protection against market failure during massive power disruptions or terrorist attacks....

Instrument failure monitoring in nuclear power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylee, J.L.

1982-01-01

Methods of monitoring dynamic systems for instrument failures were developed and evaluated. In particular, application of these methods to nuclear power plant components is addressed. For a linear system, statistical tests on the innovations sequence of a Kalman filter driven by all system measurements provides a failure detection decision and identifies any failed sensor. This sequence (in an unfailed system) is zero-mean with calculable covariance; hence, any major deviation from these properties is assumed to be due to an instrument failure. Once a failure is identified, the failed instrument is replaced with an optimal estimate of the measured parameter. This failure accommodation is accomplished using optimally combined data from a bank of accommodation Kalman filters (one for each sensor), each driven by a single measurement. Using such a sensor replacement allows continued system operation under failed conditions and provides a system operator with information otherwise unavailable. To demonstrate monitor performance, a liner failure monitor was developed for the pressurizer in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) reactor plant. LOFT is a small-scale pressurized water reactor (PWR) research facility located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. A linear, third-order model of the pressurizer dynamics was developed from first principles and validated. Using data from the LOFT L6 test series, numerous actual and simulated water level, pressure, and temperature sensor failures were employed to illustrate monitor capabilities. Failure monitor design was applied to nonlinear dynamic systems by replacing all monitor linear Kalman filters with extended Kalman filters. A nonlinear failure monitor was derived for LOFT reactor instrumentation. A sixth-order reactor model, including descriptions of reactor kinetics, fuel rod heat transfer, and core coolant dynamics, was obtained and verified with test data

Unexpected ICD pulse generator failure due to electronic circuit damage caused by electrical overstress.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, R G; Hayes, D L; Almquist, A K; Epstein, A E; Parsonnet, V; Tyers, G F; Vlay, S C; Schoenfeld, M H

2001-07-01

Because it is a lifesaving device, the unexpected failure of an ICD can be catastrophic. We report ICD electronic circuit failure due to electrical overstress damage (EOS) to the high voltage hybird circuit and other electronic components in a series of ICD pulse generator models. Data were obtained from the Multicenter Registry of Pacemaker and ICD Pacemaker and Lead Failures, and from the manufactures' adverse event reports, that were in the FDA's Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database. Of 16 nonbattery Guidant/CPI ICD pulse generator failures reported to the registry, 6 (38%) have been confirmed by the manufacturer to be EOS related, and Guidant/CPI has reported 273 such failures to the FDA as of 12/29/00. The signs of failure included loss of telemetry and inability to deliver therapy, and some patients have experienced serious adverse events. Hybrid circuit damage may have occurred during capacitor charging or reform, and the majority appears to have happened during normal ICD function. While the incidence of this problem is unknown, a management strategy should be adopted that includes routine follow-up every 3 months and device evaluation after a shock or exposure to external defibrillation or electrosurgical devices. This study suggests that additional data are needed to determine the incidence of this problem, and that our present methods for monitoring the performance of ICD's following market release are inadequate.

Internal event analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. System Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R.

1993-01-01

The Level 1 results of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant PRA are presented in the I nternal Event Analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant , CNSNS-TR-004, in five volumes. The reports are organized as follows: CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 1: Introduction and Methodology. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 2: Initiating Event and Accident Sequences. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 3: System Analysis. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 4: Accident Sequence Quantification and Results. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 5: Appendices A, B and C. This volume presents the results of the system analysis for the Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. The system analysis involved the development of logical models for all the systems included in the accident sequence event tree headings, and for all the support systems required to operate the front line systems. For the Internal Event analysis for Laguna Verde, 16 front line systems and 5 support systems were included. Detailed fault trees were developed for most of the important systems. Simplified fault trees focusing on major faults were constructed for those systems that can be adequately represent,ed using this kind of modeling. For those systems where fault tree models were not constructed, actual data were used to represent the dominant failures of the systems. The main failures included in the fault trees are hardware failures, test and maintenance unavailabilities, common cause failures, and human errors. The SETS and TEMAC codes were used to perform the qualitative and quantitative fault tree analyses. (Author)

CNE (Embalse nuclear power plant): probabilistic safety study. Electric power supply. Events sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueroa, N.

1987-01-01

The plant response to the occurrence of the starting event 'total loss of electric power supply to class IV and class III' is analyzed. This involves the study of automatical actions of safety and process systems as well as the operator actions. The probabilistic evaluation of starting event frequency is performed through fault-tree techniques. The frequency of occurrence 'loss of electric power supply to class IV (λIV = 0.56/year) and the probability of failure to demand of 'reserve' generating groups (Pd III 6.79 x 10 -3 ) contribute to the mentioned frequency. As soon as the starting event occurs, the reactor power must be reduced to 0%, the fuel must be cooled through the thermo siphon and decay heat has to be removed. The events sequence analysis leads to the conclusion that the non shutting down of the reactor with any of the shutdown systems is 'incredible' (10 -6 /year). In all cases the fuel is cooled by building the thermo siphon except when a substantial inventory loss exist due to a closure failure of some valve of pressure and inventory control system. The order of magnitude of the failure of decay heat removal through the steam generators is 4 x 10 -4 . This removal would be assured by the emergency water system. Therefore, the frequency of the sequence of possible core meltdown, when the reactor does not shut down is: λ = 5 x 10 -9 /year and for the failure of heat removal: λ = 2 x 10 -6 /year. (Author)

Size Constraints on Late Miocene to Pliocene Submarine Slope Failures along the Colombian Caribbean Subduction Margin as a Basis for Assessing Circum-Caribbean Impact of Future Tsunami Events

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, S.; Mann, P.

2015-12-01

The Colombian Caribbean margin provides an ideal setting for the formation of large mass transport deposits (MTDs): 1) the Caribbean Plate is slowly subducting at rates of 20 mm/yr with infrequent large thrust earthquakes and a complete lack of subduction events in the 400-year-long historical record; 2) the margin is a broad zone of active faults including a ~50 km-wide accretionary prism and strike-slip faults landward of the prism; 3) the active margin is draped by the Magdalena delta and submarine fan fed by the Magdalena River, the 26th largest in the world; and 4) the margin is over-steepened to slopes of up to 7° from the combination of tectonic activity and rapid rates of deltaic progradation. Using seismic data we have identified three late Miocene-Pliocene MTDs, the largest of which is between 4500 and 6000 km3, comparable in size to the well-studied Storegga slide of Norway. The tsunamigenic potential of future, analog MTD events are modeled using GeoWave tsunami modeling software. The largest and youngest of these MTDs, the Santa Marta slide, is used as an analog to infer the location and input parameters for the tsunami model. The event is modeled as a translational slide ~46 km long and ~37 km wide with the center of the slide located ~57 km W/NW from the mouth of the present day Magdalena River in water depths of 1500 m. The volume for the initial failure is conservatively estimated at ~680 km3 of material. The resulting tsunami wave from such an event has an initial maximum trough amplitude of -65.8 m and a peak amplitude of 19.2 m. The impact of such a tsunami would include: 1) Kingston, Jamaica (population 938K), tsunami height 7.5 m, peak arrival at 60 min.; 2) Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (population 965K, height 6 m, peak arrival at 80 min.); and 3) Cartagena, Colombia (population 845K, height 21 m, peak arrival at 34 min.). A number of parameters to the model are varied to analyze sensitivity of modeling results to changes in slide depth

Reliability analysis for the creep rupture mode of failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaidyanathan, S.

1975-01-01

An analytical study has been carried out to relate the factors of safety employed in the design of a component to the probability of failure in the thermal creep rupture mode. The analysis considers the statistical variations in the operating temperature, stress and rupture time, and applies the life fraction damage criterion as the indicator of failure. Typical results for solution annealed type 304-stainless steel material for the temperature and stress variations expected in an LMFBR environment have been obtained. The analytical problem was solved by considering the joint distribution of the independent variables and deriving the distribution for the function associated with the probability of failure by integrating over proper regions as dictated by the deterministic design rule. This leads to a triple integral for the final probability of failure where the coefficients of variation associated with the temperature, stress and rupture time distributions can be specified by the user. The derivation is general, and can be used for time varying stress histories and the case of irradiated material where the rupture time varies with accumulated fluence. Example calculations applied to solution annealed type 304 stainless steel material have been carried out for an assumed coefficient of variation of 2% for temperature and 6% for stress. The results show that the probability of failure associated with dependent stress intensity limits specified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Section III Code Case 1592 is less than 5x10 -8 . Rupture under thermal creep conditions is a highly complicated phenomenon. It is believed that the present study will help in quantizing the reliability to be expected with deterministic design factors of safety

Event localization in underwater wireless sensor networks using Monitoring Courses

KAUST Repository

Debont, Matthew John Robert

2012-08-01

We propose m-courses (Monitoring Courses), a novel solution to localize events in an underwater wireless sensor network. These networks consists of surface gateways and relay nodes. GPS can localize the position of surface gateways which can then distribute their locations through the network using acoustic modems. Relay nodes are deployed to remain static, but these untethered nodes may drift due to water currents, resulting in disruption of communication links. We develop a novel underwater alarm system using a cyclic graph model. In the event of link failure, a series of alarm packets are broadcast in the network. These alarms are then captured by the underwater m-courses, which can also be used to assure network connectivity and identify node failures. M-courses also allow the network to localize events and identify network issues locally before forwarding results upwards to a Surface Gateway node. This reduces communication overhead and allows for efficient management of nodes in a mobile network. Our results show that m-course routing reduces the number of sends required to report an event to a Surface Gateway by up to 80% when compared to a naïve routing implementation.

Analysis of reactor trips involving balance-of-plant failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seth, S.; Skinner, L.; Ettlinger, L.; Lay, R.

1986-01-01

The relatively high frequency of plant transients leading to reactor trips at nuclear power plants in the US is of economic and safety concern to the industry. A majority of such transients is due to failures in the balance-of-plant (BOP) systems. As a part of a study conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Mitre has carried out a further analysis of the BOP failures associated with reactor trips. The major objectives of the analysis were to examine plant-to-plant variations in BOP-related trips, to understand the causes of failures, and to determine the extent of any associated safety system challenges. The analysis was based on the Licensee Event Reports submitted on all commercial light water reactors during the 2-yr period, 1984-1985

Psychosocial Predictors of Adverse Events in Heart Failure: The Utility of Multiple Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-17

reactivity to psychological challenge: conceptual and measurement considerations. Psychosomatic medicine 65:9-21 39. Katz AM. 2000. Heart Failure...Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Medical Psychology Graduate Program Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences...Measurements" Name of Candidate: Samantha Leigh Wronski, Master of Science in Medical Psychology , Date 09/17/2015 THESIS AND ABSTRACT APPROVED: DATE

Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

2009-09-01

Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P advanced HF.

Top event prevention analysis - a deterministic use of PRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, D.P.; Worrell, R.B.

1995-01-01

Risk importance measures are popular for many applications of probabilistic analysis. Inherent in the derivation of risk importance measures are implicit assumptions that those using these numerical results should be aware of in their decision making. These assumptions and potential limitations include the following: (1) The risk importance measures are derived for a single event at a time and are therefore valid only if all other event probabilities are unchanged at their current values. (2) The results for which risk importance measures are derived may not be complete for reasons such as truncation

Survival and failure types after radiation therapy of vulvar cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vorbeck, Christina Steen; Vogelius, Ivan Richter; Banner-Voigt, Marie Louise Vorndran Cøln

2017-01-01

Background and purpose: Describe the survival rates and distribution of events on competing failure types in vulvar carcinoma after treatment with chemoradiation (CRT) or radiation (RT) alone. Material and methods: We included patients with vulvar carcinoma treated with CRT or RT between 2009...

Mitochondria-meditated pathways of organ failure upon inflammation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey V. Kozlov

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Liver failure induced by systemic inflammatory response (SIRS is often associated with mitochondrial dysfunction but the mechanism linking SIRS and mitochondria-mediated liver failure is still a matter of discussion. Current hypotheses suggest that causative events could be a drop in ATP synthesis, opening of mitochondrial permeability transition pore, specific changes in mitochondrial morphology, impaired Ca2+ uptake, generation of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mtROS, turnover of mitochondria and imbalance in electron supply to the respiratory chain. The aim of this review is to critically analyze existing hypotheses, in order to highlight the most promising research lines helping to prevent liver failure induced by SIRS. Evaluation of the literature shows that there is no consistent support that impaired Ca++ metabolism, electron transport chain function and ultrastructure of mitochondria substantially contribute to liver failure. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the drop in ATP levels has protective rather than a deleterious character. Recent data suggest that the most critical mitochondrial event occurring upon SIRS is the release of mtROS in cytoplasm, which can activate two specific intracellular signaling cascades. The first is the mtROS-mediated activation of NADPH-oxidase in liver macrophages and endothelial cells; the second is the acceleration of the expression of inflammatory genes in hepatocytes. The signaling action of mtROS is strictly controlled in mitochondria at three points, (i at the site of ROS generation at complex I, (ii the site of mtROS release in cytoplasm via permeability transition pore, and (iii interaction with specific kinases in cytoplasm. The systems controlling mtROS-signaling include pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators, nitric oxide, Ca2+ and NADPH-oxidase. Analysis of the literature suggests that further research should be focused on the impact of mtROS on organ failure induced by inflammation

Single-Event Effects in Silicon and Silicon Carbide Power Devices

Science.gov (United States)

Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Casey, Megan C.; LaBel, Kenneth A.; Topper, Alyson D.; Wilcox, Edward P.; Kim, Hak; Phan, Anthony M.

2014-01-01

NASA Electronics Parts and Packaging program-funded activities over the past year on single-event effects in silicon and silicon carbide power devices are presented, with focus on SiC device failure signatures.

Constitutive behavior and progressive mechanical failure of electrodes in lithium-ion batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chao; Xu, Jun; Cao, Lei; Wu, Zenan; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

2017-07-01

The electrodes of lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are known to be brittle and to fail earlier than the separators during an external crush event. Thus, the understanding of mechanical failure mechanism for LIB electrodes (anode and cathode) is critical for the safety design of LIB cells. In this paper, we present experimental and numerical studies on the constitutive behavior and progression of failure in LIB electrodes. Mechanical tests were designed and conducted to evaluate the constitutive properties of porous electrodes. Constitutive models were developed to describe the stress-strain response of electrodes under uniaxial tensile and compressive loads. The failure criterion and a damage model were introduced to model their unique tensile and compressive failure behavior. The failure mechanism of LIB electrodes was studied using the blunt rod test on dry electrodes, and numerical models were built to simulate progressive failure. The different failure processes were examined and analyzed in detail numerically, and correlated with experimentally observed failure phenomena. The test results and models improve our understanding of failure behavior in LIB electrodes, and provide constructive insights on future development of physics-based safety design tools for battery structures under mechanical abuse.

Autonomic Predictors of Hospitalization Due to Heart Failure Decompensation in Patients with Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludmiła Daniłowicz-Szymanowicz

Full Text Available Autonomic nervous system balance can be significantly deteriorated during heart failure exacerbation. However, it is still unknown whether these changes are only the consequence of heart failure decompensation or can also predict development thereof. Objectives were to verify if simple, non-invasive autonomic parameters, such as baroreflex sensitivity and short-term heart rate variability can provide independent of other well-known clinical parameters information on the risk of heart failure decompensation in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.In 142 stable patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40%, baroreflex sensitivity and short-term heart rate variability, as well as other well-known clinical parameters, were analyzed. During 23 ± 9 months of follow-up 19 patients were hospitalized due to the heart failure decompensation (EVENT.Pre-specified cut-off values of baroreflex sensitivity (≤2.4 ms/mmHg and low frequency power index of heart rate variability (≤19 ms2 were significantly associated with the EVENTs (hazard ratio 4.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-14.54 and 5.41, 95% CI 1.87-15.65 respectively. EVENTs were also associated with other parameters, such as left ventricular ejection fraction, NYHA class, diuretic use, renal function, brain natriuretic peptide and hemoglobin level, left atrial size, left and right ventricular heart failure signs. After adjusting baroreflex sensitivity and low frequency power index for each of the abovementioned parameters, autonomic parameters were still significant predictors of hospitalization due to the heart failure decompensation.Simple, noninvasive autonomic indices can be helpful in identifying individuals with increased risk of hospitalization due to the heart failure decompensation among clinically stable patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction, even when adjusted for other well-known clinical parameters.

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

Failure Probability Estimation of Wind Turbines by Enhanced Monte Carlo

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Naess, Arvid

2012-01-01

This paper discusses the estimation of the failure probability of wind turbines required by codes of practice for designing them. The Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulations may be used for this reason conceptually as an alternative to the popular Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method. However......, estimation of very low failure probabilities with SMC simulations leads to unacceptably high computational costs. In this study, an Enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method is proposed that overcomes this obstacle. The method has advantages over both POT and SMC in terms of its low computational cost and accuracy...... is controlled by the pitch controller. This provides a fair framework for comparison of the behavior and failure event of the wind turbine with emphasis on the effect of the pitch controller. The Enhanced Monte Carlo method is then applied to the model and the failure probabilities of the model are estimated...

Event-by-event simulation of single-neutron experiments to test uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raedt, H De; Michielsen, K

2014-01-01

Results from a discrete-event simulation of a recent single-neutron experiment that tests Ozawa's generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty relation are presented. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation, nor does it rely on detailed concepts of quantum theory. In particular, the data from these non-quantum simulations satisfy uncertainty relations derived in the context of quantum theory. (paper)

Level of Automation and Failure Frequency Effects on Simulated Lunar Lander Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Marquez, Jessica J.; Ramirez, Margarita

2014-01-01

A human-in-the-loop experiment was conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center Vertical Motion Simulator, where instrument-rated pilots completed a simulated terminal descent phase of a lunar landing. Ten pilots participated in a 2 x 2 mixed design experiment, with level of automation as the within-subjects factor and failure frequency as the between subjects factor. The two evaluated levels of automation were high (fully automated landing) and low (manual controlled landing). During test trials, participants were exposed to either a high number of failures (75% failure frequency) or low number of failures (25% failure frequency). In order to investigate the pilots' sensitivity to changes in levels of automation and failure frequency, the dependent measure selected for this experiment was accuracy of failure diagnosis, from which D Prime and Decision Criterion were derived. For each of the dependent measures, no significant difference was found for level of automation and no significant interaction was detected between level of automation and failure frequency. A significant effect was identified for failure frequency suggesting failure frequency has a significant effect on pilots' sensitivity to failure detection and diagnosis. Participants were more likely to correctly identify and diagnose failures if they experienced the higher levels of failures, regardless of level of automation

Optimization of rock-bit life based on bearing failure criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feav, M.J.; Thorogood, J.L.; Whelehan, O.P.; Williamson, H.S.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that recent advances in rock-bit seal technology have allowed greater predictability of bearing life. Cone loss following bearing failure incurs costs related to remedial activities. A risk analysis approach, incorporating bearing-life relationships and the inter-dependence of drilling events, is used to formulate a bit-run cost-optimization method. The procedure enables a choice to be made between elastomeric and metal seals on a lowest-replacement-cost basis. The technique also provides a formal method for assessing the opportunity cost for using a device to detect bit-bearing failures downhole

Analysis of the Steam Generator Tubes Rupture Initiating Event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trillo, A.; Minguez, E.; Munoz, R.; Melendez, E.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Izquierd, J.M.

1998-01-01

In PSA studies, Event Tree-Fault Tree techniques are used to analyse to consequences associated with the evolution of an initiating event. The Event Tree is built in the sequence identification stage, following the expected behaviour of the plant in a qualitative way. Computer simulation of the sequences is performed mainly to determine the allowed time for operator actions, and do not play a central role in ET validation. The simulation of the sequence evolution can instead be performed by using standard tools, helping the analyst obtain a more realistic ET. Long existing methods and tools can be used to automatism the construction of the event tree associated to a given initiator. These methods automatically construct the ET by simulating the plant behaviour following the initiator, allowing some of the systems to fail during the sequence evolution. Then, the sequences with and without the failure are followed. The outcome of all this is a Dynamic Event Tree. The work described here is the application of one such method to the particular case of the SGTR initiating event. The DYLAM scheduler, designed at the Ispra (Italy) JRC of the European Communities, is used to automatically drive the simulation of all the sequences constituting the Event Tree. Similarly to the static Event Tree, each time a system is demanded, two branches are open: one corresponding to the success and the other to the failure of the system. Both branches are followed by the plant simulator until a new system is demanded, and the process repeats. The plant simulation modelling allows the treatment of degraded sequences that enter into the severe accident domain as well as of success sequences in which long-term cooling is started. (Author)

An Updated Perspective of Single Event Gate Rupture and Single Event Burnout in Power MOSFETs

Science.gov (United States)

Titus, Jeffrey L.

2013-06-01

Studies over the past 25 years have shown that heavy ions can trigger catastrophic failure modes in power MOSFETs [e.g., single-event gate rupture (SEGR) and single-event burnout (SEB)]. In 1996, two papers were published in a special issue of the IEEE Transaction on Nuclear Science [Johnson, Palau, Dachs, Galloway and Schrimpf, “A Review of the Techniques Used for Modeling Single-Event Effects in Power MOSFETs,” IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 546-560, April. 1996], [Titus and Wheatley, “Experimental Studies of Single-Event Gate Rupture and Burnout in Vertical Power MOSFETs,” IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 533-545, Apr. 1996]. Those two papers continue to provide excellent information and references with regard to SEB and SEGR in vertical planar MOSFETs. This paper provides updated references/information and provides an updated perspective of SEB and SEGR in vertical planar MOSFETs as well as provides references/information to other device types that exhibit SEB and SEGR effects.

Determination of point of maximum likelihood in failure domain using genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obadage, A.S.; Harnpornchai, N.

2006-01-01

The point of maximum likelihood in a failure domain yields the highest value of the probability density function in the failure domain. The maximum-likelihood point thus represents the worst combination of random variables that contribute in the failure event. In this work Genetic Algorithms (GAs) with an adaptive penalty scheme have been proposed as a tool for the determination of the maximum likelihood point. The utilization of only numerical values in the GAs operation makes the algorithms applicable to cases of non-linear and implicit single and multiple limit state function(s). The algorithmic simplicity readily extends its application to higher dimensional problems. When combined with Monte Carlo Simulation, the proposed methodology will reduce the computational complexity and at the same time will enhance the possibility in rare-event analysis under limited computational resources. Since, there is no approximation done in the procedure, the solution obtained is considered accurate. Consequently, GAs can be used as a tool for increasing the computational efficiency in the element and system reliability analyses

Communication failures in patient sign-out and suggestions for improvement: a critical incident analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, V; Johnson, J; Lovinger, D; Humphrey, H J; Meltzer, D O

2005-12-01

The transfer of care for hospitalized patients between inpatient physicians is routinely mediated through written and verbal communication or "sign-out". This study aims to describe how communication failures during this process can lead to patient harm. In interviews employing critical incident technique, first year resident physicians (interns) described (1) any adverse events or near misses due to suboptimal preceding patient sign-out; (2) the worst event due to suboptimal sign-out in which they were involved; and (3) suggestions to improve sign-out. All data were analyzed and categorized using the constant comparative method with independent review by three researchers. Twenty six interns caring for 82 patients were interviewed after receiving sign-out from another intern. Twenty five discrete incidents, all the result of communication failures during the preceding patient sign-out, and 21 worst events were described. Inter-rater agreement for categorization was high (kappa 0.78-1.00). Omitted content (such as medications, active problems, pending tests) or failure-prone communication processes (such as lack of face-to-face discussion) emerged as major categories of failed communication. In nearly all cases these failures led to uncertainty during decisions on patient care. Uncertainty may result in inefficient or suboptimal care such as repeat or unnecessary tests. Interns desired thorough but relevant face-to-face verbal sign-outs that reviewed anticipated issues. They preferred legible, accurate, updated, written sign-out sheets that included standard patient content such as code status or active and anticipated medical problems. Communication failures during sign-out often lead to uncertainty in decisions on patient care. These may result in inefficient or suboptimal care leading to patient harm.

Level 2 probabilistic event analyses and quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boneham, P.

2003-01-01

In this paper an example of quantification of a severe accident phenomenological event is given. The performed analysis for assessment of the probability that the debris released from the reactor vessel was in a coolable configuration in the lower drywell is presented. It is also analysed the assessment of the type of core/concrete attack that would occur. The coolability of the debris ex-vessel evaluation by an event in the Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) Containment Event Tree (CET) and a detailed Decomposition Event Tree (DET) developed to aid in the quantification of this CET event are considered. The headings in the DET selected to represent plant physical states (e.g., reactor vessel pressure at the time of vessel failure) and the uncertainties associated with the occurrence of critical physical phenomena (e.g., debris configuration in the lower drywell) considered important to assessing whether the debris was coolable or not coolable ex-vessel are also discussed

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

Science.gov (United States)

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative Importance of History of Heart Failure Hospitalization and N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Level as Predictors of Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Søren L; Jhund, Pardeep S; Køber, Lars

2015-01-01

of NT-proBNP (n = 1468) (HR: 3.19; 95% CI: 2.68 to 3.80). In patients with no recent HF hospitalization and NT-proBNP ≤360 pg/ml (n = 1,187), the event rate was 2.43 (95% CI: 2.03 to 2.90) compared with 17.79 (95% CI: 15.77 to 20.07) per 100 person-years when both risk predictors were present (n = 523......; HR: 6.18; 95% CI: 4.96 to 7.69). CONCLUSIONS: Recent hospitalization for HF or an elevated level of NT-proBNP identified patients at higher risk for cardiovascular events, and this risk was increased further when both factors were present.......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and recent heart failure (HF) hospitalization as predictors of future events in heart failure - preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF). BACKGROUND: Recently, doubt has been expressed...

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özer Işıl Ece

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood defense failures are rare events but when they do occur lead to significant amounts of damage. The defenses are usually designed for rather low-frequency hydraulic loading and as such typically at least high enough to prevent overflow. When they fail, flood defenses like levees built with modern design codes usually either fail due to wave overtopping or geotechnical failure mechanisms such as instability or internal erosion. Subsequently geotechnical failures could trigger an overflow leading for the breach to grow in size Not only the conditions relevant for these failure mechanisms are highly uncertain, also the model uncertainty in geomechanical, internal erosion models, or breach models are high compared to other structural models. Hence, there is a need for better validation and calibration of models or, in other words, better insight in model uncertainty. As scale effects typically play an important role and full-scale testing is challenging and costly, historic flood defense failures can be used to provide insights into the real failure processes and conditions. The recently initiated SAFElevee project at Delft University of Technology aims to exploit this source of information by performing back analysis of levee failures at different level of detail. Besides detailed process based analyses, the project aims to investigate spatial and temporal patterns in deformation as a function of the hydrodynamic loading using satellite radar interferometry (i.e. PS-InSAR in order to examine its relation with levee failure mechanisms. The project aims to combine probabilistic approaches with the mechanics of the various relevant failure mechanisms to reduce model uncertainty and propose improvements to assessment and design models. This paper describes the approach of the study to levee breach analysis and the use of satellites for breach initiation analysis, both adopted within the SAFElevee project.

Human Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transfusion Is Safe and Improves Liver Function in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Ming; Zhang, Zheng; Xu, Ruonan; Lin, Hu; Fu, Junliang; Zou, Zhengsheng; Zhang, Aimin; Shi, Jianfei; Chen, Liming; Lv, Sa; He, Weiping; Geng, Hua; Jin, Lei; Liu, Zhenwen

2012-01-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe, life-threatening complication, and new and efficient therapeutic strategies for liver failure are urgently needed. Mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) transfusions have been shown to reverse fulminant hepatic failure in mice and to improve liver function in patients with end-stage liver diseases. We assessed the safety and initial efficacy of umbilical cord-derived MSC (UC-MSC) transfusions for ACLF patients associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A total of 43 ACLF patients were enrolled for this open-labeled and controlled study; 24 patients were treated with UC-MSCs, and 19 patients were treated with saline as controls. UC-MSC therapy was given three times at 4-week intervals. The liver function, adverse events, and survival rates were evaluated during the 48-week or 72-week follow-up period. No significant side effects were observed during the trial. The UC-MSC transfusions significantly increased the survival rates in ACLF patients; reduced the model for end-stage liver disease scores; increased serum albumin, cholinesterase, and prothrombin activity; and increased platelet counts. Serum total bilirubin and alanine aminotransferase levels were significantly decreased after the UC-MSC transfusions. UC-MSC transfusions are safe in the clinic and may serve as a novel therapeutic approach for HBV-associated ACLF patients. PMID:23197664