National Launch System comparative economic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Prince, A.

1992-01-01

Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

Isogeometric failure analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoosel, C.V.; Scott, M.A.; Borden, M.J.; Borst, de R.; Hughes, T.J.R.; Mueller-Hoeppe, D.; Loehnert, S.; Reese, S.

2011-01-01

Isogeometric analysis is a versatile tool for failure analysis. On the one hand, the excellent control over the inter-element continuity conditions enables a natural incorporation of continuum constitutive relations that incorporate higher-order strain gradients, as in gradient plasticity or damage.

Failure Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iorio, A.F.; Crespi, J.C.

1987-01-01

After ten years of operation at the Atucha I Nuclear Power Station a gear belonging to a pressurized heavy water reactor refuelling machine, failed. The gear box was used to operate the inlet-outlet heavy-water valve of the machine. Visual examination of the gear device showed an absence of lubricant and that several gear teeth were broken at the root. Motion was transmitted with a speed-reducing device with controlled adjustable times in order to produce a proper fitness of the valve closure. The aim of this paper is to discuss the results of the gear failure analysis in order to recommend the proper solution to prevent further failures. (Author)

Hospital costs for treatment of acute heart failure: economic analysis of the REVIVE II study.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lissovoy, Greg; Fraeman, Kathy; Teerlink, John R; Mullahy, John; Salon, Jeff; Sterz, Raimund; Durtschi, Amy; Padley, Robert J

2010-04-01

Acute heart failure (AHF) is the leading cause of hospital admission among older Americans. The Randomized EValuation of Intravenous Levosimendan Efficacy (REVIVE II) trial compared patients randomly assigned to a single infusion of levosimendan (levo) or placebo (SOC), each in addition to local standard treatments for AHF. We report an economic analysis of REVIVE II from the hospital perspective. REVIVE II enrolled patients (N = 600) hospitalized for treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) who remained dyspneic at rest despite treatment with intravenous diuretics. Case report forms documented index hospital treatment (drug administration, procedures, days of treatment by care unit), as well as subsequent hospital and emergency department admissions during follow-up ending 90 days from date of randomization. These data were used to impute cost of admission based on an econometric cost function derived from >100,000 ADHF hospital billing records selected per REVIVE II inclusion criteria. Index admission mean length of stay (LOS) was shorter for the levo group compared with standard of care (SOC) (7.03 vs 8.96 days, P = 0.008) although intensive care unit (ICU)/cardiac care unit (CCU) days were similar (levo 2.88, SOC 3.22, P = 0.63). Excluding cost for levo, predicted mean (median) cost for the index admission was levo US $13,590 (9,458), SOC $19,021 (10,692) with a difference of $5,431 (1,234) favoring levo (P = 0.04). During follow-up through end of study day 90, no significant differences were observed in numbers of hospital admissions (P = 0.67), inpatient days (P = 0.81) or emergency department visits (P = 0.41). Cost-effectiveness was performed with a REVIVE-II sub-set conforming to current labeling, which excluded patients with low baseline blood pressure. Assuming an average price for levo in countries where currently approved, there was better than 50% likelihood that levo was both cost-saving and improved survival. Likelihood that levo would

The application of Petri nets to failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, T.S.; Chiou, S.B.

1997-01-01

Unlike the technique of fault tree analysis that has been widely applied to system failure analysis in reliability engineering, this study presents a Petri net approach to failure analysis. It is essentially a graphical method for describing relations between conditions and events. The use of Petri nets in failure analysis enables to replace logic gate functions in fault trees, efficiently obtain minimal cut sets, and absorb models. It is demonstrated that for failure analysis Petri nets are more efficient than fault trees. In addition, this study devises an alternative; namely, a trapezoidal graph method in order to account for failure scenarios. Examples validate this novel method in dealing with failure analysis

Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

2006-01-01

Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

Complexity and the culture of economics: a sociological and inter-disciplinary analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Van den Berg

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This paper offers a sociological explanation for why the field of economics has so severely restricted the scope of its analysis to the point where it failed to foresee the financial crises, economic recessions, and other large shifts in economic activity that have characterized the global economy in recent decades. This paper’s analysis of the culture of economics draws heavily on the work of Pierre Bourdieu, the French sociologist who developed a useful framework with which to analyze the culture of an intellectual field like economics. Specifically, the paper describes how the neo-liberal doxa supports the restrictive neoclassical (marginalist modeling approach that is a central element of the habitus of mainstream economics. Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence shows how the orthodox economics culture perpetuates itself even in the face of the complete failure of the culture’s favored neoclassical and rational expectations models to anticipate recent macroeconomic crises. The paper concludes with some thoughts on how this understanding of the culture of economics can enable economists to free themselves from the oppressive culture of mainstream economics.

The interaction of NDE and failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, R.W.

1988-01-01

This paper deals with the use of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) and failure analysis for the assessment of the structural integrity. It appears that failure analysis enables to know whether NDE is required or not, and can help to direct NDE into the most useful directions by identifying the areas where it is most important that defects are absent. It also appears that failure analysis can help the operator to decide which NDE method is best suited to the component studied and provides detailed specifications for this NDE method. The interaction between failure analysis and NDE is then described. (TEC)

The interaction of NDE and failure analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nichols, R W

1988-12-31

This paper deals with the use of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) and failure analysis for the assessment of the structural integrity. It appears that failure analysis enables to know whether NDE is required or not, and can help to direct NDE into the most useful directions by identifying the areas where it is most important that defects are absent. It also appears that failure analysis can help the operator to decide which NDE method is best suited to the component studied and provides detailed specifications for this NDE method. The interaction between failure analysis and NDE is then described. (TEC).

Analysis of failures in concrete containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno-Gonzalez, A.

1989-09-01

The function of Containment, in an accident event, is to avoid the release of radioactive substances into the surroundings. Containment failure, therefore, is defined as the appearance of leak paths to the external environment. These leak paths may appear either as a result of loss of leaktightness due to degradation of design conditions or structural failure with containment material break. This document is a survey of the state of the art of Containment Failure Analysis. It gives a detailed description of all failure mechanisms, indicating all the possible failure modes and their causes, right from failure resulting from degradation of the materials to structural failure and linear breake failure. Following the description of failure modes, possible failure criteria are identified, with special emphasis on structural failure criteria. These criteria have been obtained not only from existing codes but also from the latest experimental results. A chapter has been dedicated exclusively to failure criteria in conventional structures, for the purpose of evaluating the possibility of application to the case of containment. As the structural behaviour of the containment building is very complex, it is not possible to define failure through a single parameter. It is therefore advisable to define a methodology for containment failure analysis which could be applied to a particular containment. This methodology should include prevailing load and material conditions together with the behaviour of complex conditions such as the liner-anchorage-cracked concrete interaction

STUDY KEGAGALAN AKIBAT KOROSI PADA PIPA ECONOMIZER

OpenAIRE

Acep Wagiman; Gugun Gundara

2017-01-01

Failure analysis to the economizer tube of boiler with operation pressure ± 190 bar, in holding time 6 hour have been investigated. The economizer tube is carbon steel, ASTM A210 Grade C, outside diameter ± 51 mm and thickness ± 6 mm. The investigation cause of failure from the economizer tube included : chemical composition and metallography analysis, visual examination at outer and inner fire side, measuring thickness and densities of the scale at inner fire side and wall side, chemical com...

FRAC (failure rate analysis code): a computer program for analysis of variance of failure rates. An application user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.; McInteer, C.R.

1982-03-01

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) require estimates of the failure rates of various components whose failure modes appear in the event and fault trees used to quantify accident sequences. Several reliability data bases have been designed for use in providing the necessary reliability data to be used in constructing these estimates. In the nuclear industry, the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS) and the In-Plant Reliability Data System (IRPDS), among others, were designed for this purpose. An important characteristic of such data bases is the selection and identification of numerous factors used to classify each component that is reported and the subsequent failures of each component. However, the presence of such factors often complicates the analysis of reliability data in the sense that it is inappropriate to group (that is, pool) data for those combinations of factors that yield significantly different failure rate values. These types of data can be analyzed by analysis of variance. FRAC (Failure Rate Analysis Code) is a computer code that performs an analysis of variance of failure rates. In addition, FRAC provides failure rate estimates

A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burhanuddin M. A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1987-01-01

Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

1993-01-01

A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Heart Failure Care and Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Leslie L; DeVore, Adam D; Granger, Bradi B; Eapen, Zubin J; Ariely, Dan; Hernandez, Adrian F

2017-08-22

Behavioral challenges are often present in human illness, so behavioral economics is increasingly being applied in healthcare settings to better understand why patients choose healthy or unhealthy behaviors. The application of behavioral economics to healthcare settings parallels recent shifts in policy and reimbursement structures that hold providers accountable for outcomes that are dependent on patient behaviors. Numerous studies have examined the application of behavioral economics principles to policy making and health behaviors, but there are limited data on applying these concepts to the management of chronic conditions, such as heart failure (HF). Given its increasing prevalence and high associated cost of care, HF is a paradigm case for studying novel approaches to improve health care; therefore, if we can better understand why patients with HF make the choices they do, then we may be more poised to help them manage their medications, influence daily behaviors, and encourage healthy decision making. In this article, we will give a brief explanation of the core behavioral economics concepts that apply to patients with HF. We will also examine how to craft these concepts into tools such as financial incentives and social networks that may improve the management of patients with HF. We believe that behavioral economics can help us understand barriers to change, encourage positive behaviors, and offer additional approaches to improving the outcomes of patients with HF. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle failure...

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

Failure analysis of a repairable system: The case study of a cam-driven reciprocating pump

Science.gov (United States)

Dudenhoeffer, Donald D.

1994-09-01

This thesis supplies a statistical and economic tool for analysis of the failure characteristics of one typical piece of equipment under evaluation: a cam-driven reciprocating pump used in the submarine's distillation system. Comprehensive statistical techniques and parametric modeling are employed to identify and quantify pump failure characteristics. Specific areas of attention include: the derivation of an optimal maximum replacement interval based on costs, an evaluation of the mission reliability for the pump as a function of pump age, and a calculation of the expected times between failures. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate current maintenance practices of time-based replacement and examine the consequences of different replacement intervals in terms of costs and mission reliability. Tradeoffs exist between cost savings and system reliability that must be fully understood prior to making any policy decisions.

To Green or Not to Green: A Political, Economic and Social Analysis for the Past Failure of Green Logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Klumpp

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The objective of green logistics has thus far failed. For example, the share of greenhouse gas emissions by the transportation and logistics sector in Europe rose from 16.6% in 1990 to 24.3% in 2012. This article analyzes the reasons behind this failure by drawing on political, economic and business as well as social motivations and examples. At the core of this analysis are the established theorems of the Jevons paradox and the median voter (Black, Downs in combination with time-distorted preferences of voters and consumers. Adding to the hurdles of green logistics are the problems of short-term political programs and decisions versus long-term business investments in transportation and logistics. Two cases from Germany are outlined regarding this political “meddling through” with a recent 2015 truck toll decision and the support for electric trucks and vehicles. Finally, the article proposes two ways forward: public control and restriction of carbon raw materials (coal, oil, as well as public investment in low-emission transport infrastructure or biofuels as the more feasible and likely alternative.

Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves and other sources of loads that are uncertain and have to be modeled as stochastic variables. The types of loads are different for offshore and onshore wind turbines. Moreover, uncertainties about the fatigue strength play an important role in modeling and assessment of the reliability of the components. In this paper, a generic stochastic model for fatigue failure of cast iron components based on fatigue test data and a limit state equation for fatigue failure based on the SN-curve approach and Miner’s rule is presented. The statistical analysis of the fatigue data is performed using the Maximum Likelihood Method which also gives an estimate of the statistical uncertainties. Finally, illustrative examples are presented with reliability analyses depending on various stochastic models and partial safety factors.

Does social diversity impede sound economic management? An empirical analysis, 1980-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

de Soysa, Indra; Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya

2017-02-01

Several celebrated scholars argue that diverse preferences and coordination failure due to ethnic and cultural diversity hamper the social cohesion necessary for good economic management, leading to development failure. Using several measures of diversity, we find that higher levels of ethno-linguistic and cultural fractionalization are conditioned positively on higher economic growth by an index of economic freedom, which is often heralded as a good measure of sound economic management. High diversity in turn is associated with higher levels of economic freedom. We do not find any evidence to suggest that high diversity hampers change towards greater economic freedom and institutions supporting liberal policies. The effect of diversity, moreover, is conditioned positively by higher democracy. Our results raise serious doubt about the centrality of social diversity for explaining economic failure, nor is there evidence to suggest that autocratic measures are required under conditions of social diversity to implement growth-promoting policies. This is good news because history and culture seem to matter less than rational agency for ensuring sound economic management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure Analysis Of Industrial Boiler Pipe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natsir, Muhammad; Soedardjo, B.; Arhatari, Dewi; Andryansyah; Haryanto, Mudi; Triyadi, Ari

2000-01-01

Failure analysis of industrial boiler pipe has been done. The tested pipe material is carbon steel SA 178 Grade A refer to specification data which taken from Fertilizer Company. Steps in analysis were ; collection of background operation and material specification, visual inspection, dye penetrant test, radiography test, chemical composition test, hardness test, metallography test. From the test and analysis result, it is shown that the pipe failure caused by erosion and welding was shown porosity and incomplete penetration. The main cause of failure pipe is erosion due to cavitation, which decreases the pipe thickness. Break in pipe thickness can be done due to decreasing in pipe thickness. To anticipate this problem, the ppe will be replaced with new pipe

Combinatorial analysis of systems with competing failures subject to failure isolation and propagation effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xing Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

2010-01-01

This paper considers the reliability analysis of binary-state systems, subject to propagated failures with global effect, and failure isolation phenomena. Propagated failures with global effect are common-cause failures originated from a component of a system/subsystem causing the failure of the entire system/subsystem. Failure isolation occurs when the failure of one component (referred to as a trigger component) causes other components (referred to as dependent components) within the same system to become isolated from the system. On the one hand, failure isolation makes the isolated dependent components unusable; on the other hand, it prevents the propagation of failures originated from those dependent components. However, the failure isolation effect does not exist if failures originated in the dependent components already propagate globally before the trigger component fails. In other words, there exists a competition in the time domain between the failure of the trigger component that causes failure isolation and propagated failures originated from the dependent components. This paper presents a combinatorial method for the reliability analysis of systems subject to such competing propagated failures and failure isolation effect. Based on the total probability theorem, the proposed method is analytical, exact, and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the basics and advantages of the proposed method.

Failure rate analysis using GLIMMIX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, L.M.; Hemphill, G.M.; Martz, H.F.

1998-01-01

This paper illustrates use of a recently developed SAS macro, GLIMMIX, for implementing an analysis suggested by Wolfinger and O'Connell (1993) in modeling failure count data with random as well as fixed factor effects. Interest in this software tool arose from consideration of modernizing the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC), developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the early 1980's by Martz, Beckman and McInteer (1982). FRAC is a FORTRAN program developed to analyze Poisson distributed failure count data as a log-linear model, possibly with random as well as fixed effects. These statistical modeling assumptions are a special case of generalized linear mixed models, identified as GLMM in the current statistics literature. In the nearly 15 years since FRAC was developed, there have been considerable advances in computing capability, statistical methodology and available statistical software tools allowing worthwhile consideration of the tasks of modernizing FRAC. In this paper, the approaches to GLMM estimation implemented in GLIMMIX and in FRAC are described and a comparison of results for the two approaches is made with data on catastrophic time-dependent pump failures from a report by Martz and Whiteman (1984). Additionally, statistical and graphical model diagnostics are suggested and illustrated with the GLIMMIX analysis results

Failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, G.

1982-07-01

In this report a methodology of failure diagnosis for complex systems is presented. Systems which can be represented by fault trees are considered. This methodology is based on switching algebra, failure diagnosis of digital circuits and fault tree analysis. Relations between these disciplines are shown. These relations are due to Boolean algebra and Boolean functions used throughout. It will be shown on this basis that techniques of failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis are useful to solve the following problems: 1. describe an efficient search of all failed components if the system is failed. 2. Describe an efficient search of all states which are close to a system failure if the system is still operating. The first technique will improve the availability, the second the reliability and safety. For these problems, the relation to methods of failure diagnosis for combinational circuits is required. Moreover, the techniques are demonstrated for a number of systems which can be represented by fault trees. (orig./RW) [de

Failure and damage analysis of advanced materials

CERN Document Server

Sadowski, Tomasz

2015-01-01

The papers in this volume present basic concepts and new developments in failure and damage analysis with focus on advanced materials such as composites, laminates, sandwiches and foams, and also new metallic materials. Starting from some mathematical foundations (limit surfaces, symmetry considerations, invariants) new experimental results and their analysis are shown. Finally, new concepts for failure prediction and analysis will be introduced and discussed as well as new methods of failure and damage prediction for advanced metallic and non-metallic materials. Based on experimental results the traditional methods will be revised.

Failure analysis of real-time systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jalashgar, A.; Stoelen, K.

1998-01-01

This paper highlights essential aspects of real-time software systems that are strongly related to the failures and their course of propagation. The significant influence of means-oriented and goal-oriented system views in the description, understanding and analysing of those aspects is elaborated. The importance of performing failure analysis prior to reliability analysis of real-time systems is equally addressed. Problems of software reliability growth models taking the properties of such systems into account are discussed. Finally, the paper presents a preliminary study of a goal-oriented approach to model the static and dynamic characteristics of real-time systems, so that the corresponding analysis can be based on a more descriptive and informative picture of failures, their effects and the possibility of their occurrence. (author)

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

Constructing Ontology for Knowledge Sharing of Materials Failure Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Shi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Materials failure indicates the fault with materials or components during their performance. To avoid the reoccurrence of similar failures, materials failure analysis is executed to investigate the reasons for the failure and to propose improved strategies. The whole procedure needs sufficient domain knowledge and also produces valuable new knowledge. However, the information about the materials failure analysis is usually retained by the domain expert, and its sharing is technically difficult. This phenomenon may seriously reduce the efficiency and decrease the veracity of the failure analysis. To solve this problem, this paper adopts ontology, a novel technology from the Semantic Web, as a tool for knowledge representation and sharing and describes the construction of the ontology to obtain information concerning the failure analysis, application area, materials, and failure cases. The ontology represented information is machine-understandable and can be easily shared through the Internet. At the same time, failure case intelligent retrieval, advanced statistics, and even automatic reasoning can be accomplished based on ontology represented knowledge. Obviously this can promote the knowledge sharing of materials service safety and improve the efficiency of failure analysis. The case of a nuclear power plant area is presented to show the details and benefits of this method.

Energy efficiency, market failures, and government policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, M.D.; Koomey, J.G.; McMahon, J.E.; Sanstad, A.H.; Hirst, E.

1994-03-01

This paper presents a framework for evaluating engineering-economic evidence on the diffusion of energy efficiency improvements. Four examples are evaluated within this framework. The analysis provides evidence of market failures related to energy efficiency. Specific market failures that may impede the adoption of cost-effective energy efficiency are discussed. Two programs that have had a major impact in overcoming these market failures, utility DSM programs and appliance standards, are described

Data needs for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Rasmuson, D.; Whitehead, D.

1990-01-01

The procedures guide for common cause failure analysis published jointly by USNRC and EPRI requires a detailed historical event analysis. Recent work on the further development of the cause-defense picture of common cause failures introduced in that guide identified the information that is necessary to perform the detailed analysis in an objective manner. This paper summarizes these information needs

Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dundulis, Gintautas; Žutautaitė, Inga; Janulionis, Remigijus; Ušpuras, Eugenijus; Rimkevičius, Sigitas; Eid, Mohamed

2016-01-01

In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well. - Highlights: • Degradation mechanisms of natural gas transmission pipelines. • Fracture mechanic analysis of the pipe with crack. • Stress evaluation of the pipe with critical crack. • Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis of gas pipeline. • Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability by Bayesian method.

Preliminary failure mode and effect analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Addison, J.V.

1972-01-01

A preliminary Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) was made on the overall 5 Kwe system. A general discussion of the system and failure effect is given in addition to the tabulated FMEA and a primary block diagram of the system. (U.S.)

Real analysis with economic applications

CERN Document Server

Ok, Efe A

2011-01-01

There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

X-framework: Space system failure analysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, John Steven

Space program and space systems failures result in financial losses in the multi-hundred million dollar range every year. In addition to financial loss, space system failures may also represent the loss of opportunity, loss of critical scientific, commercial and/or national defense capabilities, as well as loss of public confidence. The need exists to improve learning and expand the scope of lessons documented and offered to the space industry project team. One of the barriers to incorporating lessons learned include the way in which space system failures are documented. Multiple classes of space system failure information are identified, ranging from "sound bite" summaries in space insurance compendia, to articles in journals, lengthy data-oriented (what happened) reports, and in some rare cases, reports that treat not only the what, but also the why. In addition there are periodically published "corporate crisis" reports, typically issued after multiple or highly visible failures that explore management roles in the failure, often within a politically oriented context. Given the general lack of consistency, it is clear that a good multi-level space system/program failure framework with analytical and predictive capability is needed. This research effort set out to develop such a model. The X-Framework (x-fw) is proposed as an innovative forensic failure analysis approach, providing a multi-level understanding of the space system failure event beginning with the proximate cause, extending to the directly related work or operational processes and upward through successive management layers. The x-fw focus is on capability and control at the process level and examines: (1) management accountability and control, (2) resource and requirement allocation, and (3) planning, analysis, and risk management at each level of management. The x-fw model provides an innovative failure analysis approach for acquiring a multi-level perspective, direct and indirect causation of

Importance analysis for the systems with common cause failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan Zhijie; Nonaka, Yasuo

1995-01-01

This paper extends the importance analysis technique to the research field of common cause failures to evaluate the structure importance, probability importance, and β-importance for the systems with common cause failures. These importance measures would help reliability analysts to limit the common cause failure analysis framework and find efficient defence strategies against common cause failures

Goal-oriented failure analysis - a systems analysis approach to hazard identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, A.B.; Davies, J.; Foster, J.; Wells, G.L.

1990-01-01

Goal-Oriented Failure Analysis, GOFA, is a methodology which is being developed to identify and analyse the potential failure modes of a hazardous plant or process. The technique will adopt a structured top-down approach, with a particular failure goal being systematically analysed. A systems analysis approach is used, with the analysis being organised around a systems diagram of the plant or process under study. GOFA will also use checklists to supplement the analysis -these checklists will be prepared in advance of a group session and will help to guide the analysis and avoid unnecessary time being spent on identifying obvious failure modes or failing to identify certain hazards or failures. GOFA is being developed with the aim of providing a hazard identification methodology which is more efficient and stimulating than the conventional approach to HAZOP. The top-down approach should ensure that the analysis is more focused and the use of a systems diagram will help to pull the analysis together at an early stage whilst also helping to structure the sessions in a more stimulating way than the conventional techniques. GOFA will be, essentially, an extension of the HAZOP methodology. GOFA is currently being computerised using a knowledge-based systems approach for implementation. The Goldworks II expert systems development tool is being used. (author)

Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

OpenAIRE

Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani; John Dalsgaard Sørensen

2015-01-01

Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves an...

Public Choice, Market Failure, and Government Failure in Principles Textbooks

Science.gov (United States)

Fike, Rosemarie; Gwartney, James

2015-01-01

Public choice uses the tools of economics to analyze how the political process allocates resources and impacts economic activity. In this study, the authors examine twenty-three principles texts regarding coverage of public choice, market failure, and government failure. Approximately half the texts provide coverage of public choice and recognize…

Improved methods for dependent failure analysis in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, G.M.; Games, A.M.

1988-01-01

The basic design principle used in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plant is defence in depth. This normally takes the form of redundant equipment and systems which provide protection even if a number of equipment failures occur. Such redundancy is particularly effective in ensuring that multiple, independent equipment failures with the potential for jeopardising reactor safety will be rare events. However the achievement of high reliability has served to highlight the potentially dominant role of multiple, dependent failures of equipment and systems. Analysis of reactor operating experience has shown that dependent failure events are the major contributors to safety system failures and reactor incidents and accidents. In parallel PSA studies have shown that the results of a safety analysis are sensitive to assumptions made about the dependent failure (CCF) probability for safety systems. Thus a Westinghouse Analysis showed that increasing system dependent failure probabilities by a factor of 5 led to a factor 4 increase in core. This paper particularly refers to the engineering concepts underlying dependent failure assessment touching briefly on aspects of data. It is specifically not the intent of our work to develop a new mathematical model of CCF but to aid the use of existing models

Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Challinor, Andrew J [Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Simelton, Elisabeth S; Fraser, Evan D G [Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Hemming, Debbie; Collins, Mathew, E-mail: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk [Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB (United Kingdom)

2010-07-15

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty and adaptation, using spring wheat in Northeast China as a case study. A parallel 'vulnerability index' approach uses quantitative socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. The simulations show crop failure rates increasing under climate change, due to increasing extremes of both heat and water stress. Crop failure rates increase with mean temperature, with increases in maximum failure rates being greater than those in median failure rates. The results suggest that significant adaptation is possible through either socio-economic measures such as greater investment, or biophysical measures such as drought or heat tolerance in crops. The results also show that adaptation becomes increasingly necessitated as mean temperature and the associated number of extremes rise. The results, and the limitations of this study, also suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

Economic and Financial Analysis Tools | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Use these economic and . Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Use these easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools to analyze the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the

Economic sustainability in franchising: a model to predict franchisor success or failure

OpenAIRE

Calderón Monge, Esther; Pastor Sanz, Ivan .; Huerta Zavala, Pilar Angélica

2017-01-01

As a business model, franchising makes a major contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). A model that predicts franchisor success or failure is therefore necessary to ensure economic sustainability. In this study, such a model was developed by applying Lasso regression to a sample of franchises operating between 2002 and 2013. For franchises with the highest likelihood of survival, the franchise fees and the ratio of company-owned to franchised outlets were suited to the age ...

Predicting Bank Financial Failures Using Discriminant Analysis And Support Vector Machines Methods A Comparative Analysis In Commercial Banks In Sudan 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed A. SirElkhatim

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Bank failures threaten the economic system as a whole. Therefore predicting bank financial failures is crucial to prevent andor lessen its negative effects on the economic system. Financial crises affecting both emerging markets and advanced countries over the centuries have severe economic consequences but they can be hard to prevent and predict identifying financial crises causes remains both science and art said Stijn Claessens assistant director of the International Monetary Fund. While it would be better to mitigate risks financial crises will recur often in waves and better crisis management is therefore important. Analyses of recurrent causes suggest that to prevent crises governments should consider reforms in many underlying areas. That includes developing prudent fiscal and monetary policies better regulating the financial sector including reducing the problem of too-big-to-fail banks and developing effective macro-prudential policies. Despite new regulations and better supervision crises are likely to recur in part because they can reflect deeper problems related to income inequality the political economy and common human behavior. As such improvements in crisis management are also needed. This is originally a classification problem to categorize banks as healthy or non-healthy ones. This study aims to apply Discriminant analysis and Support Vector Machines methods to the bank failure prediction problem in a Sudanese case and to present a comprehensive computational comparison of the classification performances of the techniques tested. Eleven financial and non-financial ratios with six feature groups including capital adequacy asset quality Earning and liquidity CAMELS are selected as predictor variables in the study. Credit risk also been evaluated using logistic analysis to study the effect of Islamic finance modes sectors and payment types used by Sudanese banks with regard to their possibilities of failure. Experimental results

Lessons learned from failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le May, I.

2006-01-01

Failure analysis can be a very useful tool to designers and operators of plant and equipment. It is not simply something that is done for lawyers and insurance companies, but is a tool from which lessons can be learned and by means of which the 'breed' can be improved. In this presentation, several failure investigations that have contributed to understanding will be presented. Specifically, the following cases will be discussed: 1) A fire at a refinery that occurred in a desulphurization unit. 2) The failure of a pipeline before it was even put into operation. 3) Failures in locomotive axles that took place during winter operation. The refinery fire was initially blamed on defective Type 321 seamless stainless steel tubing, but there were conflicting views between 'experts' involved as to the mechanism of failure and the writer was called upon to make an in-depth study. This showed that there were a variety of failure mechanism involved, including high temperature fracture, environmentally-induced cracking and possible manufacturing defects. The unraveling of the failure sequence is described and illustrated. The failure of an oil transmission was discovered when the line was pressure tested some months after it had been installed and before it was put into service. Repairs were made and failure occurred in another place upon the next pressure test being conducted. After several more repairs had been made the line was abandoned and a lawsuit was commenced on the basis that the steel was defective. An investigation disclosed that the material was sensitive to embrittlement and the causes of this were determined. As a result, changes were made in the microstructural control of the product to avoid similar problems in future. A series of axle failures occurred in diesel electric locomotives during winter. An investigation was made to determine the nature of the failures which were not by classical fatigue, nor did they correspond to published illustrations of Cu

Failure analysis for WWER-fuel elements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehmert, J.; Huettig, W.

1986-10-01

If the fuel defect rate proves significantly high, failure analysis has to be performed in order to trace down the defect causes, to implement corrective actions, and to take measures of failure prevention. Such analyses are work-consuming and very skill-demanding technical tasks, which require examination methods and devices excellently developed and a rich stock of experience in evaluation of features of damage. For that this work specifies the procedure of failure analyses in detail. Moreover prerequisites and experimental equipment for the investigation of WWER-type fuel elements are described. (author)

failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Failure analysis of a flight control system proposed for Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was studied using Markov Analysis (MA). It was perceived that understanding of the number of failure states and the probability of being in those state are of paramount importance in order to ...

Techno-Economic Assessment of Redundancy Systems for a Cogeneration Plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Mohd Amin Abd

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The use of distributed power generation has advantage as well as disadvantage. One of the disadvantages is that the plant requires a dependable redundancy system to provide back up of power during failure of its power generation equipment. This paper presents a study on techno-economic assessment of redundancy systems for a cogeneration plant. Three redundancy systems were investigated; using public utility, generator set and gas turbine as back up during failures. Results from the analysis indicate that using public utility provides technical as well as economic advantages in comparison to using generator set or turbine as back up. However, the economic advantage of the public utility depends on the frequency of failures the plant will experience as well on the maximum demand charge. From the break even analysis of the understudied plant, if the number of failures exceeds 3 failures per year for the case of maximum demand charge of RM56.80, it is more economical to install a generator set as redundancy. The study will be useful for the co-generator operators to evaluate the feasibility of redundancy systems.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Failure analysis of prestressed concrete beam under impact loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishikawa, N.; Sonoda, Y.; Kobayashi, N.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a failure analysis of prestressed concrete (PC) beam under impact loading. At first, the failure analysis of PC beam section is performed by using the discrete section element method in order to obtain the dynamic bending moment-curvature relation. Secondary, the failure analysis of PC beam is performed by using the rigid panel-spring model. Finally, the numerical calculation is executed and is compared with the experimental results. It is found that this approach can simulate well the experiments at the local and overall failure of the PC beam as well as the impact load and the displacement-time relations. (author)

Micromechanics Based Failure Analysis of Heterogeneous Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Sertse, Hamsasew M.

are performed for both brittle failure/high cycle fatigue (HCF) for negligible plastic strain and ductile failure/low cycle fatigue (LCF) for large plastic strain. The proposed approach is incorporated in SwiftComp and used to predict the initial failure envelope, stress-strain curve for various loading conditions, and fatigue life of heterogeneous materials. The combined effects of strain hardening and progressive fatigue damage on the effective properties of heterogeneous materials are also studied. The capability of the current approach is validated using several representative examples of heterogeneous materials including binary composites, continuous fiber-reinforced composites, particle-reinforced composites, discontinuous fiber-reinforced composites, and woven composites. The predictions of MSG are also compared with the predictions obtained using various micromechanics approaches such as Generalized Methods of Cells (GMC), Mori-Tanaka (MT), and Double Inclusions (DI) and Representative Volume Element (RVE) Analysis (called as 3-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA) in this document). This study demonstrates that a micromechanics based failure analysis has a great potential to rigorously and more accurately analyze initiation and progression of damage in heterogeneous materials. However, this approach requires material properties specific to damage analysis, which are needed to be independently calibrated for each constituent.

Debugging Nondeterministic Failures in Linux Programs through Replay Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shakaiba Majeed

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Reproducing a failure is the first and most important step in debugging because it enables us to understand the failure and track down its source. However, many programs are susceptible to nondeterministic failures that are hard to reproduce, which makes debugging extremely difficult. We first address the reproducibility problem by proposing an OS-level replay system for a uniprocessor environment that can capture and replay nondeterministic events needed to reproduce a failure in Linux interactive and event-based programs. We then present an analysis method, called replay analysis, based on the proposed record and replay system to diagnose concurrency bugs in such programs. The replay analysis method uses a combination of static analysis, dynamic tracing during replay, and delta debugging to identify failure-inducing memory access patterns that lead to concurrency failure. The experimental results show that the presented record and replay system has low-recording overhead and hence can be safely used in production systems to catch rarely occurring bugs. We also present few concurrency bug case studies from real-world applications to prove the effectiveness of the proposed bug diagnosis framework.

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA): A Bibliography

Science.gov (United States)

2000-01-01

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a bottom-up analytical process that identifies process hazards, which helps managers understand vulnerabilities of systems, as well as assess and mitigate risk. It is one of several engineering tools and techniques available to program and project managers aimed at increasing the likelihood of safe and successful NASA programs and missions. This bibliography references 465 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, failure modes or failure analysis, in either the basic index of the major subject terms.

Economic burden of hospitalizations of Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kilgore M

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Meredith Kilgore,1 Harshali K Patel,2 Adrian Kielhorn,2 Juan F Maya,2 Pradeep Sharma1 1Department of Health Care Organization and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, 2Amgen, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the costs associated with the hospitalization and the cumulative 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission rates in a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure (HF.Methods: This was a retrospective, observational study based on data from the national 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Inpatient data were gathered for Medicare beneficiaries with at least one HF-related hospitalization between July 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011. The primary end point was the average per-patient cost of hospitalization for individuals with HF. Secondary end points included the cumulative rate of hospitalization, the average length of hospital stay, and the cumulative 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission rates.Results: Data from 63,678 patients with a mean age of 81.8 years were included in the analysis. All costs were inflated to $2,015 based on the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index. The mean per-patient cost of an HF-related hospitalization was $14,631. The mean per-patient cost of a cardiovascular (CV-related or all-cause hospitalization was $16,000 and $15,924, respectively. The cumulative rate of all-cause hospitalization was 218.8 admissions per 100 person-years, and the median length of stay for HF-related, CV-related, and all-cause hospitalizations was 5 days. Also, 22.3% of patients were readmitted within 30 days, 33.3% were readmitted within 60 days, and 40.2% were readmitted within 90 days.Conclusion: The costs associated with hospitalization for Medicare beneficiaries with HF are substantial and are compounded by a high rate of readmission. Keywords: heart failure, Medicare, health economics, hospitalization, costs

BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fussell, J.B.

1983-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

Failure analysis of vise jaw holders for hacksaw machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Essam Ali Al-Bahkali

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Failure analysis in mechanical components has been investigated in many studies in the last few years. Failure analysis and prevention are important functions in all engineering disciplines. Materials engineers are often the lead role in the analysis of failures, where a component or product fails in service or if a failure occurs during manufacturing or production processing. In any case, one must determine the cause of the failure to prevent future occurrences and/or to improve the performance of the device, component or structure. For example, the vise jaw holders of hacksaws can break due to accidental heavy loads or machine misuse. The parts that break are the stationary and movable vise jaw holders and the connecter power screw between the holders. To investigate the failure of these components, a three-dimensional finite element model for stress analysis was performed. First, the analysis identified the broken components of the hacksaw machine. In addition, the type of materials of the broken parts was identified, a CAD model was built, and the hacksaw mechanism was analyzed to determine the accurate applied loads on the broken parts. After analyzing the model using Abaqus CAE software, the results showed that the location of the high stresses was identical with the high-stress locations in the original, broken parts. Furthermore, the power screw was subjected to a high load, which deformed the power screw. Also, the stationary vise jaw holder was broken by impact because it was not touched by the power screw until the movable vise jaw holder broke. A conclusion is drawn from the failure analysis and a way to improve the design of the broken parts is suggested.

Failure Propagation Modeling and Analysis via System Interfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Zhao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Safety-critical systems must be shown to be acceptably safe to deploy and use in their operational environment. One of the key concerns of developing safety-critical systems is to understand how the system behaves in the presence of failures, regardless of whether that failure is triggered by the external environment or caused by internal errors. Safety assessment at the early stages of system development involves analysis of potential failures and their consequences. Increasingly, for complex systems, model-based safety assessment is becoming more widely used. In this paper we propose an approach for safety analysis based on system interface models. By extending interaction models on the system interface level with failure modes as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support could be provided for much of the failure analysis. We focus on fault modeling and on how to compute minimal cut sets. Particularly, we explore state space reconstruction strategy and bounded searching technique to reduce the number of states that need to be analyzed, which remarkably improves the efficiency of cut sets searching algorithm.

Use of fuel failure correlations in accident analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Dell, L.D.; Baars, R.E.; Waltar, A.E.

1975-05-01

The MELT-III code for analysis of a Transient Overpower (TOP) accident in an LMFBR is briefly described, including failure criteria currently applied in the code. Preliminary results of calculations exploring failure patterns in time and space in the reactor core are reported and compared for the two empirical fuel failure correlations employed in the code. (U.S.)

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broader range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broader range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.

A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Eric C.; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg

2014-01-01

Purpose: Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. Methods: FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Results: Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes hadRPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Conclusions: Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed

A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Eric C; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg

2014-06-01

Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes had RPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed.

A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ford, Eric C., E-mail: eford@uw.edu; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287 (United States)

2014-06-15

Purpose: Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. Methods: FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Results: Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes hadRPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Conclusions: Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed.

Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

Failure analysis of a helicopter's main rotor bearing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahzad, M.; Qureshi, A.H.; Waqas, H.; Hussain, N.; Ali, N.

2011-01-01

Presented results report some of the findings of a detailed failure analysis carried out on a main rotor hub assembly, which had symptoms of burning and mechanical damage. The analysis suggests environmental degradation of the grease which causes pitting on bearing-balls. The consequent inefficient lubrication raises the temperature which leads to the smearing of cage material (brass) on the bearing-balls and ultimately causes the failure. The analysis has been supported by the microstructural studies, thermal analysis and micro-hardness testing performed on the affected main rotor bearing parts. (author)

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Economic analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1980-06-01

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, John M.; Hill, Ashely D.; Beard, Bernard B.

2011-01-01

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise.

The costs of treating acute heart failure: an economic analysis of the SURVIVE trial.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lissovoy, Gregory; Fraeman, Kathy; Salon, Jeff; Chay Woodward, Tatia; Sterz, Raimund

2008-01-01

To estimate the incremental cost per life year gained with levosimendan relative to dobutamine in treatment of acute heart failure based on the Survival of Patients with Acute Heart Failure in Need of Intravenous Inotropic Support (SURVIVE) trial. SURVIVE enrolled 1,327 patients (levosimendan 664, dobutamine 663) from nine nations with 180-day survival from date of randomisation as the primary endpoint. Hospital resource utilisation was determined via clinical case reports. Unit costs were derived from hospital payment schedules for France, Germany and the UK, and represent a third-party payer perspective. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed for a subset of the SURVIVE patient population selected in accordance with current levosimendan labeling. Mortality in the levosimendan group was 26 versus 28% for dobutamine (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.74-1.13, p=0.40). Initial hospitalisation length of stay was identical (levosimendan 14.4, dobutamine 14.5, p=0.98). Slightly lower rates of readmission were observed for levosimendan relative to dobutamine at 31 (p=0.13) and 180 days (p=0.23). Mean costs excluding study drug were equivalent for the index admission (levosimendan euro5,060, dobutamine euro4,952; p=0.91) and complete episode (levosimendan euro5,396, dobutamine euro5,275; p=0.93). At an acquisition cost of euro600 per vial, there is at least 50% likelihood that levosimendan is cost effective relative to dobutamine if willingness to pay is equal to or greater than euro15,000 per life year gained.

Failure analysis on a ruptured petrochemical pipe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harun, Mohd [Industrial Technology Division, Malaysian Nuclear Agency, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Shamsudin, Shaiful Rizam; Kamardin, A. [Univ. Malaysia Perlis, Jejawi, Arau (Malaysia). School of Materials Engineering

2010-08-15

The failure took place on a welded elbow pipe which exhibited a catastrophic transverse rupture. The failure was located on the welding HAZ region, parallel to the welding path. Branching cracks were detected at the edge of the rupture area. Deposits of corrosion products were also spotted. The optical microscope analysis showed the presence of transgranular failures which were related to the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and were predominantly caused by the welding residual stress. The significant difference in hardness between the welded area and the pipe confirmed the findings. Moreover, the failure was also caused by the low Mo content in the stainless steel pipe which was detected by means of spark emission spectrometer. (orig.)

Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

2017-01-01

Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.

Regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data in the presence of informative censoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Peijie; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo

2016-12-01

Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields such as demography, economics, medical research, and reliability and many inference procedures on them have been developed (Sun, 2006; Chen, Sun, and Peace, 2012). However, most of the existing approaches assume that the mechanism that yields interval censoring is independent of the failure time of interest and it is clear that this may not be true in practice (Zhang et al., 2007; Ma, Hu, and Sun, 2015). In this article, we consider regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data when the censoring mechanism may be related to the failure time of interest. For the problem, an estimated sieve maximum-likelihood approach is proposed for the data arising from the proportional hazards frailty model and for estimation, a two-step procedure is presented. In the addition, the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators of regression parameters are established and an extensive simulation study suggests that the method works well. Finally, we apply the method to a set of real interval-censored data that motivated this study. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Analysis Method of Common Cause Failure on Non-safety Digital Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eun Gse [KHNP, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

The effects of common cause failure on safety digital instrumentation and control system had been considered in defense in depth analysis with safety analysis method. However, the effects of common cause failure on non-safety digital instrumentation and control system also should be evaluated. The common cause failure can be included in credible failure on the non-safety system. In the I and C architecture of nuclear power plant, many design feature has been applied for the functional integrity of control system. One of that is segmentation. Segmentation defenses the propagation of faults in the I and C architecture. Some of effects from common cause failure also can be limited by segmentation. Therefore, in this paper there are two type of failure mode, one is failures in one control group which is segmented, and the other is failures in multiple control group because that the segmentation cannot defense all effects from common cause failure. For each type, the worst failure scenario is needed to be determined, so the analysis method has been proposed in this paper. The evaluation can be qualitative when there is sufficient justification that the effects are bounded in previous safety analysis. When it is not bounded in previous safety analysis, additional analysis should be done with conservative assumptions method of previous safety analysis or best estimation method with realistic assumptions.

Computer aided approach to qualitative and quantitative common cause failure analysis for complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cate, C.L.; Wagner, D.P.; Fussell, J.B.

1977-01-01

Common cause failure analysis, also called common mode failure analysis, is an integral part of a complete system reliability analysis. Existing methods of computer aided common cause failure analysis are extended by allowing analysis of the complex systems often encountered in practice. The methods aid in identifying potential common cause failures and also address quantitative common cause failure analysis

Role of scanning electron microscope )SEM) in metal failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaiful Rizam Shamsudin; Hafizal Yazid; Mohd Harun; Siti Selina Abd Hamid; Nadira Kamarudin; Zaiton Selamat; Mohd Shariff Sattar; Muhamad Jalil

2005-01-01

Scanning electron microscope (SEM) is a scientific instrument that uses a beam of highly energetic electrons to examine the surface and phase distribution of specimens on a micro scale through the live imaging of secondary electrons (SE) and back-scattered electrons (BSE) images. One of the main activities of SEM Laboratory at MINT is for failure analysis on metal part and components. The capability of SEM is excellent for determining the root cause of metal failures such as ductility or brittleness, stress corrosion, fatigue and other types of failures. Most of our customers that request for failure analysis are from local petrochemical plants, manufacturers of automotive components, pipeline maintenance personnel and engineers who involved in the development of metal parts and component. This paper intends to discuss some of the technical concepts in failure analysis associated with SEM. (Author)

Failure analysis of medical Linac (LMR-15)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Kiyotaka; Nakamura, Katsumi; Ogihara, Kiyoshi; Takahashi, Katsuhiko; Sato, Kazuhisa.

1994-01-01

In August 1978, Linac (LMR-15, Z4 Toshiba) was installed at our hospital and in use for 12 years up to September 1990. Recently, we completed working and failure records on this apparatus during the 12-year period, for the purpose of their analysis in the basis of reliability engineering. The results revealed operation rate of 97.85% on the average, mean time between failures (MTBF) from 40-70 hours about the beginning of its working to 280 hours for 2 years before renewal and practically satisfactory values of mean life of parts of life such as magnetron, thyratron and electron gun; the above respective values proved to be above those reported by other literature. On the other hand, we classified, by occurring system, the contents of failures in the apparatus and determined the number of failures and the temperature and humidities in case of failures to examine the correlation between the working environment and failure. The results indicated a change in humidity to gain control of failures in the dosimetric system, especially the monitoring chamber and we could back up the strength of the above correlation from a coefficient of correlation value of 0.84. (author)

Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.W. Liu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube is presented in this work. In order to examine the causes of failure, various techniques including visual inspection, chemical analysis, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were carried out. Tube wall thickness measurements were performed on the ruptured tube. The fire-facing side of the tube was observed to have experienced significant wall thinning. The composition of the matrix material of the tube meets the requirements of the relevant standards. Microscopic examinations showed that the spheroidization of pearlite is not very obvious. The failure mechanism is identified as a result of the significant localized wall thinning of the boiler water-wall tube due to oxidation.

Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube

OpenAIRE

S.W. Liu; W.Z. Wang; C.J. Liu

2017-01-01

Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube is presented in this work. In order to examine the causes of failure, various techniques including visual inspection, chemical analysis, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were carried out. Tube wall thickness measurements were performed on the ruptured tube. The fire-facing side of the tube was observed to have experienced significant wall thinning. The composition of the matrix material of the tu...

Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

1991-01-01

A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures in a system failure mode, effects and criticality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowles, John B.; Pelaez, C.E.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a new technique, based on fuzzy logic, for prioritizing failures for corrective actions in a Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). As in a traditional criticality analysis, the assessment is based on the severity, frequency of occurrence, and detectability of an item failure. However, these parameters are here represented as members of a fuzzy set, combined by matching them against rules in a rule base, evaluated with min-max inferencing, and then defuzzified to assess the riskiness of the failure. This approach resolves some of the problems in traditional methods of evaluation and it has several advantages compared to strictly numerical methods: 1) it allows the analyst to evaluate the risk associated with item failure modes directly using the linguistic terms that are employed in making the criticality assessment; 2) ambiguous, qualitative, or imprecise information, as well as quantitative data, can be used in the assessment and they are handled in a consistent manner; and 3) it gives a more flexible structure for combining the severity, occurrence, and detectability parameters. Two fuzzy logic based approaches for assessing criticality are presented. The first is based on the numerical rankings used in a conventional Risk Priority Number (RPN) calculation and uses crisp inputs gathered from the user or extracted from a reliability analysis. The second, which can be used early in the design process when less detailed information is available, allows fuzzy inputs and also illustrates the direct use of the linguistic rankings defined for the RPN calculations

Analysis of dependent failures in the ORNL precursor study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, G.M.

1985-01-01

The study of dependent failures (or common cause/mode failures) in the safety assessment of potentially hazardous plant is one of the significant areas of uncertainty in performing probabilistic safety studies. One major reason for this uncertainty is that data on dependent failures is apparently not readily available in sufficient quantity to assist in the development and validation of models. The incident reports that were compiled for the ORNL study on Precursors to Severe Core Damage Accidents (NUREG/CR-2497) provide an opportunity to look at the importance of dependent failures in the most significant incidents of recent reactor operations, to look at the success of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods in accounting for the contribution of dependent failures, and to look at the dependent failure incidents with the aim of identifying the most significant problem areas. In this paper an analysis has been made of the incidents compiled in NUREG/CR-2497 and events involving multiple failures which were not independent have been identified. From this analysis it is clear that dependent failures are a very significant contributor to the precursor incidents. The method of enumeration of accident frequency used in NUREG-2497 can be shown to take account of dependent failures and this may be a significant factor contributing to the apparent difference between the precursor accident frequency and typical PRA frequencies

Problems of Overcoming Market Failures in the Context of Economic Crisis in the Euro Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra Y. Pluiko

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the manifestations of a market failure problem revealed during the economic crisis in the euro area, namely business cycles, market inability to ensure money circulation and avoid inflation. It is shown that the cyclicity of economic development has revealed in various degrees of economic contraction and different rates of its recovery. These differences have been exacerbated by the new procyclical factors emerged from the transition to a single currency. As for money circulation the crisis has almost no impact on the single currency functioning: the euro has maintained its position on the world market and properly performed money functions in the domestic. The goal to achieve economic development without inflation in the euro area generally has been solved successfully by the European Central Bank (ECB. However, due to the fact that the ECB in its monetary policy does not pay sufficient attention to the increased inflation in small and relatively poor countries, the crisis has been more acute in them than in large countries with low inflation. The goals of ensuring money circulation and avoiding inflation can be settled more effectively in the euro area in case of more tight coherence in economic policy and strengthening of supranational mechanisms of economic governance.

Failure modes and effects analysis of fusion magnet systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmermann, M.; Kazimi, M.S.; Siu, N.O.; Thome, R.J.

1988-12-01

A failure modes and consequence analysis of fusion magnet system is an important contributor towards enhancing the design by improving the reliability and reducing the risk associated with the operation of magnet systems. In the first part of this study, a failure mode analysis of a superconducting magnet system is performed. Building on the functional breakdown and the fault tree analysis of the Toroidal Field (TF) coils of the Next European Torus (NET), several subsystem levels are added and an overview of potential sources of failures in a magnet system is provided. The failure analysis is extended to the Poloidal Field (PF) magnet system. Furthermore, an extensive analysis of interactions within the fusion device caused by the operation of the PF magnets is presented in the form of an Interaction Matrix. A number of these interactions may have significant consequences for the TF magnet system particularly interactions triggered by electrical failures in the PF magnet system. In the second part of this study, two basic categories of electrical failures in the PF magnet system are examined: short circuits between the terminals of external PF coils, and faults with a constant voltage applied at external PF coil terminals. An electromagnetic model of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) is used to examine the mechanical load conditions for the PF and the TF coils resulting from these fault scenarios. It is found that shorts do not pose large threats to the PF coils. Also, the type of plasma disruption has little impact on the net forces on the PF and the TF coils. 39 refs., 30 figs., 12 tabs

Failure analysis of fractured dental zirconia implants.

Science.gov (United States)

Gahlert, M; Burtscher, D; Grunert, I; Kniha, H; Steinhauser, E

2012-03-01

The purpose of the present study was the macroscopic and microscopic failure analysis of fractured zirconia dental implants. Thirteen fractured one-piece zirconia implants (Z-Look3) out of 170 inserted implants with an average in situ period of 36.75±5.34 months (range from 20 to 56 months, median 38 months) were prepared for macroscopic and microscopic (scanning electron microscopy [SEM]) failure analysis. These 170 implants were inserted in 79 patients. The patient histories were compared with fracture incidences to identify the reasons for the failure of the implants. Twelve of these fractured implants had a diameter of 3.25 mm and one implant had a diameter of 4 mm. All fractured implants were located in the anterior side of the maxilla and mandibula. The patient with the fracture of the 4 mm diameter implant was adversely affected by strong bruxism. By failure analysis (SEM), it could be demonstrated that in all cases, mechanical overloading caused the fracture of the implants. Inhomogeneities and internal defects of the ceramic material could be excluded, but notches and scratches due to sandblasting of the surface led to local stress concentrations that led to the mentioned mechanical overloading by bending loads. The present study identified a fracture rate of nearly 10% within a follow-up period of 36.75 months after prosthetic loading. Ninety-two per cent of the fractured implants were so-called diameter reduced implants (diameter 3.25 mm). These diameter reduced implants cannot be recommended for further clinical use. Improvement of the ceramic material and modification of the implant geometry has to be carried out to reduce the failure rate of small-sized ceramic implants. Nevertheless, due to the lack of appropriate laboratory testing, only clinical studies will demonstrate clearly whether and how far the failure rate can be reduced. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Failure mode and effects analysis: an empirical comparison of failure mode scoring procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashley, Laura; Armitage, Gerry

2010-12-01

To empirically compare 2 different commonly used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) scoring procedures with respect to their resultant failure mode scores and prioritization: a mathematical procedure, where scores are assigned independently by FMEA team members and averaged, and a consensus procedure, where scores are agreed on by the FMEA team via discussion. A multidisciplinary team undertook a Healthcare FMEA of chemotherapy administration. This included mapping the chemotherapy process, identifying and scoring failure modes (potential errors) for each process step, and generating remedial strategies to counteract them. Failure modes were scored using both an independent mathematical procedure and a team consensus procedure. Almost three-fifths of the 30 failure modes generated were scored differently by the 2 procedures, and for just more than one-third of cases, the score discrepancy was substantial. Using the Healthcare FMEA prioritization cutoff score, almost twice as many failure modes were prioritized by the consensus procedure than by the mathematical procedure. This is the first study to empirically demonstrate that different FMEA scoring procedures can score and prioritize failure modes differently. It found considerable variability in individual team members' opinions on scores, which highlights the subjective and qualitative nature of failure mode scoring. A consensus scoring procedure may be most appropriate for FMEA as it allows variability in individuals' scores and rationales to become apparent and to be discussed and resolved by the team. It may also yield team learning and communication benefits unlikely to result from a mathematical procedure.

Failure analysis of stainless steel femur fixation plate.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, P B; Mohammad, M

2004-05-01

Failure analysis was performed to investigate the failure of the femur fixation plate which was previously fixed on the femur of a girl. Radiography, metallography, fractography and mechanical testing were conducted in this study. The results show that the failure was due to the formation of notches on the femur plate. These notches act as stress raisers from where the cracks start to propagate. Finally fracture occurred on the femur plate and subsequently, the plate failed.

failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

eobe

2016-01-01

Jan 1, 2016 ... Tree Analysis (FTA), Dependence Diagram Analysis. (DDA) and Markov Analysis (MA) are the most widely-used methods of probabilistic safety and reliability analysis for airborne system [1]. Fault trees analysis is a backward failure searching ..... [4] Christopher Dabrowski and Fern Hunt Markov Chain.

Early failure analysis of machining centers: a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Jiang Weiwei

2001-01-01

To eliminate the early failures and improve the reliability, nine ex-factory machining centers are traced under field conditions in workshops. Their early failure information throughout the ex-factory run-in test is collected. The field early failure database is constructed based on the collection of field early failure data and the codification of data. Early failure mode and effects analysis is performed to indicate the weak subsystem of a machining center or the troublemaker. The distribution of the time between early failures is analyzed and the optimal ex-factory run-in test time for machining center that may expose sufficiently the early failures and cost minimum is discussed. Suggestions how to arrange ex-factory run-in test and how to take actions to reduce early failures for machining center is proposed

Testing Realistic Disaster Scenarios for Space Weather: The Economic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, M.; Oughton, E. J.; Hapgood, M. A.

2017-12-01

The socio-economic impacts of space weather have been under-researched, despite this threat featuring on the UK's National Risk Register. In this paper, a range of Realistic Disaster Scenarios due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure are tested. We use regional Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) studies to identify areas in the UK high-voltage power system deemed to be high-risk. The potential level of disruption arising from a large geomagnetic disturbance in these `hot spots' on local economic activity is explored. Electricity is a necessary factor of production without which businesses cannot operate, so even short term power loss can cause significant loss of value. We utilise a spatially disaggregated approach that focuses on quantifying employment disruption by industrial sector, and relating this to direct Gross Value Added loss. We then aggregate this direct loss into a set of shocks to undertake macroeconomic modelling of different scenarios, to obtain the total economic impact which includes both direct and indirect supply chain disruption effects. These results are reported for a range of temporal periods, with the minimum increment being a one-hour blackout. This work furthers our understanding of the economic impacts of space weather, and can inform future reviews of the UK's National Risk Register. The key contribution of the paper is that the results can be used in the future cost-benefit analysis of investment in space weather forecasting.

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2010-01-01

Reliability is widely recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems. In recent articles, we conducted nonparametric analyses and Weibull fits of satellite and satellite subsystems reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our investigation of failures of satellites and satellite subsystems beyond the binary concept of reliability to the analysis of their anomalies and multi-state failures. In reliability analysis, the system or subsystem under study is considered to be either in an operational or failed state; multi-state failure analysis introduces 'degraded states' or partial failures, and thus provides more insights through finer resolution into the degradation behavior of an item and its progression towards complete failure. The database used for the statistical analysis in the present work identifies five states for each satellite subsystem: three degraded states, one fully operational state, and one failed state (complete failure). Because our dataset is right-censored, we calculate the nonparametric probability of transitioning between states for each satellite subsystem with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and we derive confidence intervals for each probability of transitioning between states. We then conduct parametric Weibull fits of these probabilities using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. After validating the results, we compare the reliability versus multi-state failure analyses of three satellite subsystems: the thruster/fuel; the telemetry, tracking, and control (TTC); and the gyro/sensor/reaction wheel subsystems. The results are particularly revealing of the insights that can be gleaned from multi-state failure analysis and the deficiencies, or blind spots, of the traditional reliability analysis. In addition to the specific results provided here, which should prove particularly useful to the space industry, this work highlights the importance

Extending Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Approach for Reliability Analysis at the Software Architecture Design Level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sözer, Hasan; Tekinerdogan, B.; Aksit, Mehmet; de Lemos, Rogerio; Gacek, Cristina

2007-01-01

Several reliability engineering approaches have been proposed to identify and recover from failures. A well-known and mature approach is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method that is usually utilized together with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to analyze and diagnose the causes of failures.

Machinery failure analysis and troubleshooting practical machinery management for process plants

CERN Document Server

Bloch, Heinz P

2012-01-01

Solve the machinery failure problems costing you time and money with this classic, comprehensive guide to analysis and troubleshooting  Provides detailed, complete and accurate information on anticipating risk of component failure and avoiding equipment downtime Includes numerous photographs of failed parts to ensure you are familiar with the visual evidence you need to recognize Covers proven approaches to failure definition and offers failure identification and analysis methods that can be applied to virtually all problem situations Demonstr

Root cause of failure analysis and the system engineer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppock, M.S.; Hartwig, A.W.

1990-01-01

In an industry where ever-increasing emphasis is being placed on root cause of failure determination, it is imperative that a successful nuclear utility have an effective means of identifying failures and performing the necessary analyses. The current Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) good practice, OE-907, root-cause analysis, gives references to methodology that will help determine breakdowns in procedures, programs, or design but gives very little guidance on how or when to perform component root cause of failure analyses. The system engineers of nuclear utilities are considered the focal point for their respective systems and are required by most programs to investigate component failures. The problem that the system engineer faces in determining a component root cause of failures lies in acquisition of the necessary data to identify the need to perform the analysis and in having the techniques and equipment available to perform it. The system engineers at the Palo Verde nuclear generating station routinely perform detailed component root cause of failure analyses. The Palo Verde program provides the system engineers with the information necessary to identify when a component root cause of failure is required. Palo Verde also has the necessary equipment on-site to perform the analyses

A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

Contraceptive failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasch, Vibeke

2002-01-01

Most studies focusing on contraceptive failure in relation to pregnancy have focused on contraceptive failure among women having induced abortions, thereby neglecting those women who, despite contraceptive failure, accept the pregnancy and intend to carry the fetus to term. To get a more complete...... picture of the problem of contraceptive failure, this study focuses on contraceptive failure among women with diverse pregnancy outcomes. In all, 3520 pregnant women attending Odense University Hospital were included: 373 had induced abortions, 435 had spontaneous abortions, 97 had ectopic pregnancies......, and 2614 received antenatal care. The variables studied comprise age, partner relationship, number of births, occupational and economical situation, and contraceptive use.Contraceptive failure, defined as contraceptive use (condom, diaphragm, IUD, oral contraception, or another modern method...

Process Equipment Failure Mode Analysis in a Chemical Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Nasl Seraji

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Background and aims   Prevention of potential accidents and safety promotion in chemical processes requires systematic safety management in them. The main objective of this study was analysis of important process equipment components failure modes and effects in H2S and CO2  isolation from extracted natural gas process.   Methods   This study was done in sweetening unit of an Iranian gas refinery. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA used for identification of process equipments failures.   Results   Totally 30 failures identified and evaluated using FMEA. P-1 blower's blade breaking and sour gas pressure control valve bearing tight moving had maximum risk Priority number (RPN, P-1 body corrosion and increasing plug lower side angle of reach DEAlevel control valve  in tower - 1 were minimum calculated RPN.   Conclusion   By providing a reliable documentation system for equipment failures and  incidents recording, maintaining of basic information for later safety assessments would be  possible. Also, the probability of failures and effects could be minimized by conducting preventive maintenance.

Dissimilar weld failure analysis and development program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holko, K.H.; Li, C.C.

1982-01-01

The problem of dissimilar weld cracking and failure is examined. This problem occurs in boiler superheater and reheater sections as well as main steam piping. Typically, a dissimilar weld joins low-alloy steel tubing such as Fe-2-1/4 Cr-1Mo to stainless steel tubing such as 321H and 304H. Cracking and failure occur in the low-alloy steel heat-affected zone very close to the weld interface. The 309 stainless steel filler previously used has been replaced with nickel-base fillers such as Inconel 132, Inconel 182, and Incoweld A. This change has extended the time to cracking and failure, but has not solved the problem. To illustrate and define the problem, the metallography of damaged and failed dissimilar welds is described. Results of mechanical tests of dissimilar welds removed from service are presented, and factors believed to be influential in causing damage and failure are discussed. In addition, the importance of dissimilar weldment service history is demonstrated, and the Dissimilar Weld Failure Analysis and Development Program is described. 15 figures

Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno

Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

2016-01-01

Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, George K.

An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…

POLITICAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sri Nuryanti

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Rice self-sufficiency is an important programme in Indonesia. The programme has four major targets, i.e. increasing production, stabilizing prices and reserve stocks, and minimizing import. For that purpose, the government gave a mandate to a parastatal, namely National Logistic Agency (Bulog in implementing the rice policies. Some studies found that involvement of such a parastatal could lead to government failure in budget allocation. The study aimed to estimate social cost of rice self-sufficiency programme based on the implementation of rice instrument policies by Bulog. The study used the national annual data of 2002–2014 period. The method used was the political preference function model to estimate economic rent and dead-weight loss using rice price elasticity of demand and supply. The result showed that in terms of percentage of food security budget, the average of economic rent reached IDR 6.37 trillion per annum (18.54%, while the average of dead-weight loss amounted at IDR 0.90 trillion per annum (2.34%. It proved that rice self-sufficiency programme along with the involvement of Bulog was economically inefficient. The government should provide better agricultural infrastructure, review governmental procurement prices, and stop rice import policy to remedy market failure.

Comprehensive method of common-mode failure analysis for LMFBR safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unione, A.J.; Ritzman, R.L.; Erdmann, R.C.

1976-01-01

A technique is demonstrated which allows the systematic treatment of common-mode failures of safety system performance. The technique uses log analysis in the form of fault and success trees to qualitatively assess the sources of common-mode failure and quantitatively estimate the contribution to the overall risk of system failure. The analysis is applied to the secondary control rod system of an early sized LMFBR

Challenges in Resolution for IC Failure Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Nick

1999-10-01

Resolution is becoming more and more of a challenge in the world of Failure Analysis in integrated circuits. This is a result of the ongoing size reduction in microelectronics. Determining the cause of a failure depends upon being able to find the responsible defect. The time it takes to locate a given defect is extremely important so that proper corrective actions can be taken. The limits of current microscopy tools are being pushed. With sub-micron feature sizes and even smaller killing defects, optical microscopes are becoming obsolete. With scanning electron microscopy (SEM), the resolution is high but the voltage involved can make these small defects transparent due to the large mean-free path of incident electrons. In this presentation, I will give an overview of the use of inspection methods in Failure Analysis and show example studies of my work as an Intern student at Texas Instruments. 1. Work at Texas Instruments, Stafford, TX, was supported by TI. 2. Work at Texas Tech University, was supported by NSF Grant DMR9705498.

What Is the Economic Cost of Unplanned Pregnancy Following Hysteroscopic Sterilization in the US? A New National Estimate Based on Essure® Procedure Prevalence, Failure Rates and Workforce Productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Sills, E Scott; Fernandez, Luca P; Jones, Christopher A

Although hysteroscopic sterilization (HS) (Essure ®) has been available in the US since 2002, there is disagreement regarding its efficacy, and there has been no study of the economic impact of HS failure. Our investigation examined the economic consequences of contraceptive failure with Essure in the US. Contraceptive failure rates (CFR) of 5.7%, 7.7% and 9.6% were applied to the US cohort of HS patients (n = 600,000). Direct economic impact of productivity losses resulting from unplanned conceptions after HS was calculated by factoring Essure failure rate, the exposed population, US female labour force participation, unemployment rate, time away from work owing to vaginal delivery or pregnancy termination and weekly wages. For the 9.6% CFR scenario, US workforce productivity loss from unplanned pregnancy and delivery was estimated at 771,065 days (2,112 years). Productivity loss secondary to conception and subsequent termination of pregnancy after Essure was approximately 23,725 days (65 years). Assuming CFR at 5.7%, livebirth delivery with total time missed from work at 65 days, this was associated with an aggregate economic impact of $49.2M in lost annual wages. Direct economic impact of unplanned pregnancy after Essure irrespective of outcome (terminations and deliveries) was estimated to result in US productivity losses valued at ~$130M. Although not all unplanned pregnancy costs are attributable to failed HS, estimates derived from earlier surveys have not considered this contraceptive method, and the economic consequences of unplanned pregnancy after Essure are not trivial. Quantifying the economic consequences of HS failure would be improved with specific ICD-10 coding for Essure-associated symptoms.

Analysis of the Connections between EU Economic Growth and the Lisbon Strategy

OpenAIRE

Marius-Corneliu MARINAŞ

2010-01-01

This research tries to offer an explanation for the motivation to implement the Lisbon Strategy, its main failures and its impact upon EU economic growth process. The Lisbon Strategy, which was adopted in 2000, should have resulted in the structural change of the European Union’s economy until 2010, if taking into consideration the promotion of a sustainable economic growth, which could encourage the increase of employment and the provision of economic and social cohesion...

Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

Science.gov (United States)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.

Failures on stainless steel components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haenninen, H.

1994-01-01

Economic losses due to failure mainly by corrosion in process and nuclear industries are considered. In these industries the characteristics of different forms of corrosion and their economic effects are fairly well known and, especially, in nuclear industry the assessment of corrosion related costs has been comprehensive. In both industries the economic losses resulting from environmentally enhanced cracking of stainless steel components and the accompanying failures and outages have been considerable, owing as much to the frequency as the unpredictability of such occurrences. (orig.)

A quantitative method for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; Meesters, A.J.; Klingenberg, W.; Hicks, C.

2012-01-01

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is commonly used for designing maintenance routines by analysing potential failures, predicting their effect and facilitating preventive action. It is used to make decisions on operational and capital expenditure. The literature has reported that despite its

Failure mode analysis of a PCRV. Influence of some hypothesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmermann, T.; Saugy, B.; Rebora, B.

1975-01-01

This paper is concerned with the most recent developments and results obtained using a mathematical model for the non-linear analysis of massive reinforced and prestressed concrete strucures developed by the IPEN at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Lausanne. The method is based on three-dimensional isoparametric finite elements. A linear solution is adapted step by step to the idealized behavior laws of the materials up to the failure of the structure. The laws proposed here for the non-linear behavior of concrete and steel have been described elsewhere but a simple extension to the time-dependent behavior is presented. A numerical algorithm for the superposition of creep deformations is also proposed, the basic creep law being supposed to satisfy a power expression. Time-dependent failure is discussed. The calculus of a PCRV of a helium cooled fast reactor is then performed and the influence of the liner on the failure mode is analyzed. The failure analysis under increasing internal pressure is run at the present time and the influence of an eventual pressure in the cracks is being investigated. The paper aims mainly to demonstrate the accuracy of a failure analysis by three-dimensional finite-elements and to compare it with a model test, in particular when complete deformation and failure tests of the materials are available. The proposed model has already been extensively tested on simple structures and has proved to be useful for the analysis of different simplifying hypotheses

Failure analysis of a Francis turbine runner

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frunzaverde, D; Campian, V [Research Center in Hydraulics, Automation and Heat Transfer, ' Eftimie Murgu' University of Resita P-ta Traian Vuia 1-4, RO-320085, Resita (Romania); Muntean, S [Centre of Advanced Research in Engineering Sciences, Romanian Academy - Timisoara Branch Bv. Mihai Viteazu 24, RO-300223, Timisoara (Romania); Marginean, G [University of Applied Sciences Gelsenkirchen, Neidenburger Str. 10, 45877 Gelsenkirchen (Germany); Marsavina, L [Department of Strength, ' Politehnica' University of Timisoara, Bv. Mihai Viteazu 1, RO-300222, Timisoara (Romania); Terzi, R; Serban, V, E-mail: gabriela.marginean@fh-gelsenkirchen.d, E-mail: d.frunzaverde@uem.r [Ramnicu Valcea Subsidiary, S.C. Hidroelectrica S.A., Str. Decebal 11, RO-240255, Ramnicu Valcea (Romania)

2010-08-15

The variable demand on the energy market requires great flexibility in operating hydraulic turbines. Therefore, turbines are frequently operated over an extended range of regimes. Francis turbines operating at partial load present pressure fluctuations due to the vortex rope in the draft tube cone. This phenomenon generates strong vibrations and noise that may produce failures on the mechanical elements of the machine. This paper presents the failure analysis of a broken Francis turbine runner blade. The failure appeared some months after the welding repair work realized in situ on fatigue cracks initiated near to the trailing edge at the junction with the crown, where stress concentration occurs. In order to determine the causes that led to the fracture of the runner blade, the metallographic investigations on a sample obtained from the blade is carried out. The metallographic investigations included macroscopic and microscopic examinations, both performed with light and scanning electron microscopy, as well as EDX - analyses. These investigations led to the conclusion, that the cracking of the blade was caused by fatigue, initiated by the surface unevenness of the welding seam. The failure was accelerated by the hydrogen embrittlement of the filling material, which appeared as a consequence of improper welding conditions. In addition to the metallographic investigations, numerical computations with finite element analysis are performed in order to evaluate the deformation and stress distribution on blade.

Failure analysis of a Francis turbine runner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frunzaverde, D; Campian, V; Muntean, S; Marginean, G; Marsavina, L; Terzi, R; Serban, V

2010-01-01

The variable demand on the energy market requires great flexibility in operating hydraulic turbines. Therefore, turbines are frequently operated over an extended range of regimes. Francis turbines operating at partial load present pressure fluctuations due to the vortex rope in the draft tube cone. This phenomenon generates strong vibrations and noise that may produce failures on the mechanical elements of the machine. This paper presents the failure analysis of a broken Francis turbine runner blade. The failure appeared some months after the welding repair work realized in situ on fatigue cracks initiated near to the trailing edge at the junction with the crown, where stress concentration occurs. In order to determine the causes that led to the fracture of the runner blade, the metallographic investigations on a sample obtained from the blade is carried out. The metallographic investigations included macroscopic and microscopic examinations, both performed with light and scanning electron microscopy, as well as EDX - analyses. These investigations led to the conclusion, that the cracking of the blade was caused by fatigue, initiated by the surface unevenness of the welding seam. The failure was accelerated by the hydrogen embrittlement of the filling material, which appeared as a consequence of improper welding conditions. In addition to the metallographic investigations, numerical computations with finite element analysis are performed in order to evaluate the deformation and stress distribution on blade.

TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huq, M. [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (United States)

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huq, M.

2015-01-01

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

Failure mode and effects analysis of software-based automation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haapanen, P.; Helminen, A.

2002-08-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the well-known analysis methods having an established position in the traditional reliability analysis. The purpose of FMEA is to identify possible failure modes of the system components, evaluate their influences on system behaviour and propose proper countermeasures to suppress these effects. The generic nature of FMEA has enabled its wide use in various branches of industry reaching from business management to the design of spaceships. The popularity and diverse use of the analysis method has led to multiple interpretations, practices and standards presenting the same analysis method. FMEA is well understood at the systems and hardware levels, where the potential failure modes usually are known and the task is to analyse their effects on system behaviour. Nowadays, more and more system functions are realised on software level, which has aroused the urge to apply the FMEA methodology also on software based systems. Software failure modes generally are unknown - 'software modules do not fail, they only display incorrect behaviour' - and depend on dynamic behaviour of the application. These facts set special requirements on the FMEA of software based systems and make it difficult to realise. In this report the failure mode and effects analysis is studied for the use of reliability analysis of software-based systems. More precisely, the target system of FMEA is defined to be a safety-critical software-based automation application in a nuclear power plant, implemented on an industrial automation system platform. Through a literature study the report tries to clarify the intriguing questions related to the practical use of software failure mode and effects analysis. The study is a part of the research project 'Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002). In the project various safety assessment methods and tools for

A Reliability-Based Determination of Economic Life of Marine power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atua, K.

1999-01-01

The reliability-based life approach is utilized. Selective failure modes of marine power plants are used for illustration. A case study of the Egyptian Commercial Fleet owned by the Public Sector Company was analyzed and used to establish a demonstration of the expected economic life based on local operating and maintenance conditions. The data acquired is analyzed and failure trend is derived for each failure mode. Probabilistic techniques are used to randomly generate numbers and times of occurrence of different failure modes. The reliability analysis is performed on the life span expected by the manufacture to predict the total number of failures, dependent failures, and cost of failures. Total expenditure due to random failure and cost of scheduled maintenance together with the annual income are utilized (using the time value of money) to determine the economic life of the plant. Conclusions are derived and recommendations for the enhancement of this work in the future are made

Improving failure analysis efficiency by combining FTA and FMEA in a recursive manner

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, J.F.W.; Basten, R.J.I.; Tinga, Tiedo

2018-01-01

When designing a maintenance programme for a capital good, especially a new one, it is of key importance to accurately understand its failure behaviour. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are two commonly used methods for failure analysis. FMEA is a bottom-up

Improving failure analysis efficiency by combining FTA and FMEA in a recursive manner

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, J.F.W.; Basten, R.J.I.; Tinga, T.

When designing a maintenance programme for a capital good, especially a new one, it is of key importance to accurately understand its failure behaviour. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are two commonly used methods for failure analysis. FMEA is a bottom-up

Hazard, sensorial and economic analysis critical control point (HACCP) check list for radiation sterilized ready-to-eat meals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haruvy, Y F [Soreq Nuclear Research Centre, Operations Division, QA Department, Yavne (Israel)

2004-07-01

The primary objective of this work is to introduce a modified HACCP analysis route, for irradiated prepared meals that addresses not only health hazards but also sensorial failures, economic risks. Above all, this method aims at pinpointing failure modes specific to the radiation pasteurization aspect of the production and the product. The suggested modified analysis should serve all researchers in the CRP in their attempts to transfer their process and product from the laboratory-research type into an industrial one. While in the laboratory we can discard 'failure' samples or lots, or parts of a lot that are of inferior quality, an industrial process must be profitable and, hence, stable and reproducibly producing high quality products. The basic aspects of the HACCP route are: HACCP describes a system of control for assuring food safety and provides a more structured and critical approach to the control of identified hazards than that achievable by traditional inspection and quality control procedures; It has the potential to identify areas of concern where failure has not yet been experienced, making it particularly useful for new operations. The analysis route is exemplified in tables, that cover all the steps involved in the food production, from farm to fork.

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

2017-07-01

In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yaxley, I L

1998-03-01

Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

2012-01-01

on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can

Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

1983-01-01

The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

Reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

2013-01-01

This paper suggests two combinatorial algorithms for the reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation effects. Propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is referred to as a failure that not only causes outage to the component from which the failure originates, but also propagates through all other system components causing the entire system failure. However, the propagation effect from the PFGE can be isolated in systems with functional dependence (FDEP) behavior. This paper studies two distinct consequences of PFGE resulting from a competition in the time domain between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects. As compared to existing works on competing failures that are limited to systems with a single FDEP group, this paper considers more complicated cases where the systems have multiple dependent FDEP groups. Analysis of such systems is more challenging because both the occurrence order between the trigger failure event and PFGE from the dependent components and the occurrence order among the multiple trigger failure events have to be considered. Two combinatorial and analytical algorithms are proposed. Both of them have no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. Their correctness is verified using a Markov-based method. An example of memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate and compare the applications and advantages of the two proposed algorithms. - Highlights: ► Reliability of binary systems with multiple dependent functional dependence groups is analyzed. ► Competing failure propagation and failure isolation effect is considered. ► The proposed algorithms are combinatorial and applicable to any arbitrary type of time-to-failure distributions for system components.

Recognition and Analysis of Corrosion Failure Mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Suess

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Corrosion has a vast impact on the global and domestic economy, and currently incurs losses of nearly $300 billion annually to the U.S. economy alone. Because of the huge impact of corrosion, it is imperative to have a systematic approach to recognizing and mitigating corrosion problems as soon as possible after they become apparent. A proper failure analysis includes collection of pertinent background data and service history, followed by visual inspection, photographic documentation, material evaluation, data review and conclusion procurement. In analyzing corrosion failures, one must recognize the wide range of common corrosion mechanisms. The features of any corrosion failure give strong clues as to the most likely cause of the corrosion. This article details a proven approach to properly determining the root cause of a failure, and includes pictographic illustrations of the most common corrosion mechanisms, including general corrosion, pitting, galvanic corrosion, dealloying, crevice corrosion, microbiologically-influenced corrosion (MIC, corrosion fatigue, stress corrosion cracking (SCC, intergranular corrosion, fretting, erosion corrosion and hydrogen damage.

Propagated failure analysis for non-repairable systems considering both global and selective effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Chaonan; Xing Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

2012-01-01

This paper proposes an algorithm for the reliability analysis of non-repairable binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation events with both global and selective failure effects. A propagated failure that originates from a system component causes extensive damage to the rest of the system. Global effect happens when the propagated failure causes the entire system to fail; whereas selective effect happens when the propagated failure causes only failure of a subset of system components. In both cases, the failure propagation that originates from some system components (referred to as dependent components) can be isolated because of functional dependence between the dependent components and a component that prevents the failure propagation (trigger components) when the failure of the trigger component happens before the occurrence of the propagated failure. Most existing studies focus on the analysis of propagated failures with global effect. However, in many cases, propagated failures affect only a subset of system components not the entire system. Existing approaches for analyzing propagated failures with selective effect are limited to series-parallel systems. This paper proposes a combinatorial method for the propagated failure analysis considering both global and selective effects as well as the competition with the failure isolation in the time domain. The proposed method is not limited to series-parallel systems and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. The method is verified using the Markov-based method. An example of computer memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

System reliability analysis using dominant failure modes identified by selective searching technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong-Seok; Ok, Seung-Yong; Song, Junho; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2013-01-01

The failure of a redundant structural system is often described by innumerable system failure modes such as combinations or sequences of local failures. An efficient approach is proposed to identify dominant failure modes in the space of random variables, and then perform system reliability analysis to compute the system failure probability. To identify dominant failure modes in the decreasing order of their contributions to the system failure probability, a new simulation-based selective searching technique is developed using a genetic algorithm. The system failure probability is computed by a multi-scale matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method. Lower-scale MSR analyses evaluate the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence. A higher-scale MSR analysis evaluates the system failure probability based on the results of the lower-scale analyses. Three illustrative examples demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach through comparison with existing methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed method skillfully identifies the dominant failure modes, including those neglected by existing approaches. The multi-scale MSR method accurately evaluates the system failure probability with statistical dependence fully considered. The decoupling between the failure mode identification and the system reliability evaluation allows for effective applications to larger structural systems

Failure to review STAT clinical laboratory requests and its economical impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Borja, Enrique; Villalba-Martinez, Celia; Barba-Serrano, Esther; Carratala-Calvo, Arturo

2016-01-01

Failure to follow-up laboratory test results has been described as one of the major processes contributing to unsafe patient care. Currently, most of the laboratories do not know with certainty not only their rate of missed (or unreviewed) requests but the economical cost and impact that this issue implies. The aim of our study was to measure that rate and calculate the resulting costs. In January 2015, we checked in our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) for every emergency request from 1(st) July 2011 to 30(th) June 2014, if they had been reviewed by any allowed user or not. 319,064 requests were ordered during that period of time. Results were expressed as "ordered requests", "missed requests" and its percentage. Additionally, total cost of missed requests was calculated in euros (€). "Non-productive days" were theorised (as the days producing requests that were not reviewed) based on these results. 7924 requests (2.5%) were never reviewed by clinicians. This represented a total cost of 203,039 € and 27 "non-productive" days in three years. Significant differences between inpatients, outpatients and emergency department as well as different emergencies units were found after application of statistical analysis. In terms of resources, never reviewed or missed requests appear to be a not negligible problem for the clinical laboratory management. Electronic result delivery, with electronic endorsement to indicate follow-up of requests along with better systems of electronic requesting should be investigated as a way of improving patient outcomes and save unnecessary expenses.

The study of Influencing Maintenance Factors on Failures of Two gypsum Kilns by Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iraj Alimohammadi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Developing technology and using equipment in Iranian industries caused that maintenance system would be more important to use. Using proper management techniques not only increase the performance of production system but also reduce the failures and costs. The aim of this study was to determine the quality of maintenance system and the effects of its components on failures of kilns in two gypsum production companies using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA. Furthermore the costs of failures were studied. After the study of gypsum production steps in the factories, FMEA was conducted by the determination of analysis insight, information gathering, making list of kilns’ component and filling up the FMEA’s tables. The effects of failures on production, how to fail, failure rate, failure severity, and control measures were studied. The evaluation of maintenance system was studied by a check list including questions related to system components. The costs of failures were determined by refer in accounting notebooks and interview with the head of accounting department. It was found the total qualities of maintenance system in NO.1 was more than NO.2 but because of lower quality of NO.1’s kiln design, number of failures and their costs were more. In addition it was determined that repair costs in NO.2’s kiln were about one third of NO.1’s. The low severity failures caused the most costs in comparison to the moderate and low ones. The technical characteristics of kilns were appeared to be the most important factors in reducing of failures and costs.

Failure criterion of concrete type material and punching failure analysis of thick mortar plate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohno, T.; Kuroiwa, M.; Irobe, M.

1979-01-01

In this paper falure surface of concrete type material is proposed and its validity to structural analysis is examined. The study is an introductory part of evaluation for ultimate strength of reinforced and prestressed concrete structures in reactor technology. The failure surface is expressed in a linear form in terms of octahedral normal and shear stresses. Coefficient of the latter stress is given by a trigonometric series in threefold angle of similarity. Hence, its meridians are multilinear and traces of its deviatoric sections are smooth curves having periodicity of 2π/3 around space diagonal in principal stress space. The mathematical expression of the surface has an arbitraty number of parameters so that material test results are well reflected. To confirm the effectiveness of proposed failure criterion, experiment and numerical analysis by the finite element method on punching failure of thick mortar plate in axial symmetry are compared. In the numerical procedure yield surface of the material is assumed to exist mainly in compression region, since a brittle cleavage or elastic fracture occurs in the concrete type material under stress state with tension, while a ductile or plastic fracture occurs under compressive stress state. (orig.)

Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.Yu. Polyak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.

Common Cause Failure Analysis for the Digital Plant Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kagn, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung Cheol

2005-01-01

Safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants adopt the multiple-redundancy design in order to reduce the risk from the single component failure. The digitalized safety-signal generation system is also designed based on the multiple-redundancy strategy which consists of more redundant components. The level of the redundant design of digital systems is usually higher than those of conventional mechanical systems. This higher redundancy would clearly reduce the risk from the single failure of components, but raise the importance of the common cause failure (CCF) analysis. This research aims to develop the practical and realistic method for modeling the CCF in digital safety-critical systems. We propose a simple and practical framework for assessing the CCF probability of digital equipment. Higher level of redundancy causes the difficulty of CCF analysis because it results in impractically large number of CCF events in the fault tree model when we use conventional CCF modeling methods. We apply the simplified alpha-factor (SAF) method to the digital system CCF analysis. The precedent study has shown that SAF method is quite realistic but simple when we consider carefully system success criteria. The first step for using the SAF method is the analysis of target system for determining the function failure cases. That is, the success criteria of the system could be derived from the target system's function and configuration. Based on this analysis, we can calculate the probability of single CCF event which represents the CCF events resulting in the system failure. In addition to the application of SAF method, in order to accommodate the other characteristics of digital technology, we develop a simple concept and several equations for practical use

Signal analysis for failure detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parpaglione, M.C.; Perez, L.V.; Rubio, D.A.; Czibener, D.; D'Attellis, C.E.; Brudny, P.I.; Ruzzante, J.E.

1994-01-01

Several methods for analysis of acoustic emission signals are presented. They are mainly oriented to detection of changes in noisy signals and characterization of higher amplitude discrete pulses or bursts. The aim was to relate changes and events with failure, crack or wear in materials, being the final goal to obtain automatic means of detecting such changes and/or events. Performance evaluation was made using both simulated and laboratory test signals. The methods being presented are the following: 1. Application of the Hopfield Neural Network (NN) model for classifying faults in pipes and detecting wear of a bearing. 2. Application of the Kohonnen and Back Propagation Neural Network model for the same problem. 3. Application of Kalman filtering to determine time occurrence of bursts. 4. Application of a bank of Kalman filters (KF) for failure detection in pipes. 5. Study of amplitude distribution of signals for detecting changes in their shape. 6. Application of the entropy distance to measure differences between signals. (author). 10 refs, 11 figs

NDT in failure analysis - some case studies [Paper IIIA-g

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raj, Baldev; Bhattacharya, D.K.; Lopez, E.C.; Jayakumar, T.

1986-01-01

The effective uses of several non-destructive techniques in failure analysis are discussed. The techniques considered are: dye penetrant testing, radiography, ultrasonic testing, hardness measurement and in-situ metallography. A few failure cases are discussed to highlight the usefulness of the techniques. (author)

[Hazard function and life table: an introduction to the failure time analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Matsushita, K; Inaba, H

1987-04-01

Failure time analysis has become popular in demographic studies. It can be viewed as a part of regression analysis with limited dependent variables as well as a special case of event history analysis and multistate demography. The idea of hazard function and failure time analysis, however, has not been properly introduced to nor commonly discussed by demographers in Japan. The concept of hazard function in comparison with life tables is briefly described, where the force of mortality is interchangeable with the hazard rate. The basic idea of failure time analysis is summarized for the cases of exponential distribution, normal distribution, and proportional hazard models. The multiple decrement life table is also introduced as an example of lifetime data analysis with cause-specific hazard rates.

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Albania’s Transformation since 1997: Successes and Failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jusufi Islam

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In 1997 Albania experienced a collapse of order and widespread violence, which resulted in a situation where the government was overthrown and some 2,000 people were killed. The 1997 disorder came as a result of the collapse of fraudulent financial pyramid schemes that had all the features of a war-like economic structure. During the 1997 events, large-scale confiscation and stealing of state assets occurred. Albania’s transitional period from communism to democracy, which began in 1990, led to the establishment of new structures for profiting from the country’s resources. Some of these political and economic structures, in the aftermath of the 1997 events, disappeared and others, including their structural effects, persist and have had an impact on the country’s political stability and economic progress. Today, both the successes and failures of the country are assessed based on the progress that the country has made since the 1997 events. The paper analyses the 1997 events and the transformation of Albania’s political and economic structures between 1997 and 2016, considering both achievements and failures. It looks at how the country has dealt with the post-1997 peace-building and development agenda from the perspective of it being a success. It looks at the factors that led to state failure in 1997 and at the factors that continue and have generated a path dependency to the current political context of the country. Although a lot has been written concerning the 1997 events, very little analysis has been conducted concerning what it means from the perspective of research on state failure. In this context, the proposed paper seeks to offer Albania as a case study example of a transformation process, from the uprising to the current situation, which is characterized as a mixture of successes and failures. The belief is that the proposed paper will point to some lessons learned for the strategies directed at the transformation processes.

Failure analysis of PB-1 (EBTS Be/Cu mockup)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odegard, B.C. Jr.; Cadden, C.H.

1996-11-01

Failure analysis was done on PB-1 (series of Be tiles joined to Cu alloy) following a tile failure during a high heat flux experiment in EBTS (electron beam test system). This heat flux load simulated ambient conditions inside ITER; the Be tiles were bonded to the Cu alloy using low-temperature diffusion bonding, which is being considered for fabricating plasma facing components in ITER. Results showed differences between the EBTS failure and a failure during a room temperature tensile test. The latter occurred at the Cu-Be interface in an intermetallic phase formed by reaction of the two metals at the bonding temperature. Fracture strengths measured by these tests were over 300 MPa. The high heat flux specimens failed at the Cu-Cu diffusion bond. Fracture morphology in both cases was a mixed mode of dimple rupture and transgranular cleavage. Several explanations for this difference in failure mechanism are suggested

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

Science.gov (United States)

Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2017-12-01

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

Sequentially linear analysis for simulating brittle failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Graaf, A.V.

2017-01-01

The numerical simulation of brittle failure at structural level with nonlinear finite
element analysis (NLFEA) remains a challenge due to robustness issues. We attribute these problems to the dimensions of real-world structures combined with softening behavior and negative tangent stiffness at

Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin

2018-01-01

Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.

7 CFR 1779.47 - Economic feasibility requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... complete the financial feasibility analysis for WW systems. If the facility is used by businesses and the success or failure of the facility is dependent on individual businesses, then the economic viability of..., security, history, and management capabilities. Financial feasibility reports must take into consideration...

Lower head failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rempe, J.L.; Thinnes, G.L.; Allison, C.M.; Cronenberg, A.W.

1991-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a lower vessel head research program to investigate plausible modes of reactor vessel failure in order to determine (a) which modes have the greatest likelihood of occurrence during a severe accident and (b) the range of core debris and accident conditions that lead to these failures. This paper presents the methodology and preliminary results of an investigation of reactor designs and thermodynamic conditions using analytic closed-form approximations to assess the important governing parameters in non-dimensional form. Preliminary results illustrate the importance of vessel and tube geometrical parameters, material properties, and external boundary conditions on predicting vessel failure. Thermal analyses indicate that steady-state temperature distributions will occur in the vessel within several hours, although the exact time is dependent upon vessel thickness. In-vessel tube failure is governed by the tube-to-debris mass ratio within the lower head, where most penetrations are predicted to fail if surrounded by molten debris. Melt penetration distance is dependent upon the effective flow diameter of the tube. Molten debris is predicted to penetrate through tubes with a larger effective flow diameter, such as a boiling water reactor (BWR) drain nozzle. Ex-vessel tube failure for depressurized reactor vessels is predicted to be more likely for a BWR drain nozzle penetration because of its larger effective diameter. At high pressures (between ∼0.1 MPa and ∼12 MPa) ex-vessel tube rupture becomes a dominant failure mechanism, although tube ejection dominates control rod guide tube failure at lower temperatures. However, tube ejection and tube rupture predictions are sensitive to the vessel and tube radial gap size and material coefficients of thermal expansion

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

2006-01-01

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

Failure analysis of buried tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkins, R.K.

1994-01-01

Failure of a buried tank can be hazardous. Failure may be a leak through which product is lost from the tank; but also through which contamination can occur. Failures are epidemic -- because buried tanks are out of sight, but also because designers of buried tanks have adopted analyses developed for pressure tanks. So why do pressure tanks fail when they are buried? Most failures of buried tanks are really soil failures. Soil compresses, or slips, or liquefies. Soil is not only a load, it is a support without which the tank deforms. A high water table adds to the load on the tank. It also reduces the strength of the soil. Based on tests, structural analyses are proposed for empty tanks buried in soils of various quality, with the water table at various levels, and with internal vacuum. Failure may be collapse tank. Such collapse is a sudden, audible inversion of the cylinder when the sidefill soil slips. Failure may be flotation. Failure may be a leak. Most leaks are fractures in the welds in overlap seams at flat spots. Flat spots are caused by a hard bedding or a heavy surface wheel load. Because the tank wall is double thick at the overlap, shearing stress in the weld is increased. Other weld failures occur when an end plate shears down past a cylinder; or when the tank is supported only at its ends like a beam. These, and other, failures can be analyzed with justifiable accuracy using basic principles of mechanics of materials. 10 figs

Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

2011-01-01

A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 0 C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.

2006-12-01

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

2006-12-15

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

Going South: Analysis of an Historic Project Engineering Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, John H.

2009-01-01

NASA's successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America's gift to all Mankind. NASA's accomplishments continue to amaze the world. With the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Americans once again tasked NASA to carry out a project that is expected to provide inspiration and economic stimulus to the United States and to the world. In preparation NASA has thoroughly examined space program precedents. There is, however, another precedent which has not been examined in this context but whose scope and environment in many ways parallel the VSE. This project was initiated by a team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $173 billion (in 2008 dollars), had pushed the envelope of technology, brought economic growth, established their country as the world leader in engineering, and been broadly accepted as that country's gift to all Mankind. The new project was again inspired by popular desire to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to Humanity. This effort was predicted to require eight years and $156 billion (2008 dollars). However, after nine years and expenditures of 96% beyond the baseline, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. This paper applies current project management metrics, such as earned value analysis, to review the strategic decisions in this historic failure and describe its ultimate collapse. Key mistakes are identified, and lessons are drawn which may prove useful in guiding the VSE.

Advanced Economic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

2013-01-01

An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

Statistical analysis of nuclear power plant pump failure rate variability: some preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Whiteman, D.E.

1984-02-01

In-Plant Reliability Data System (IPRDS) pump failure data on over 60 selected pumps in four nuclear power plants are statistically analyzed using the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC). A major purpose of the analysis is to determine which environmental, system, and operating factors adequately explain the variability in the failure data. Catastrophic, degraded, and incipient failure severity categories are considered for both demand-related and time-dependent failures. For catastrophic demand-related pump failures, the variability is explained by the following factors listed in their order of importance: system application, pump driver, operating mode, reactor type, pump type, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Quantitative failure rate adjustments are provided for the effects of these factors. In the case of catastrophic time-dependent pump failures, the failure rate variability is explained by three factors: reactor type, pump driver, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Finally, point and confidence interval failure rate estimates are provided for each selected pump by considering the influential factors. Both types of estimates represent an improvement over the estimates computed exclusively from the data on each pump

Galectin-3: a new biomarker for the diagnosis, analysis and prognosis of acute and chronic heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Hrynchyshyn, Nataliya; Jourdain, Patrick; Desnos, Michel; Diebold, Benoit; Funck, François

2013-10-01

Heart failure constitutes an important medical, social and economic problem. The prevalence of heart failure is estimated as 2-3% of the adult population and increases with age, despite the scientific progress of the past decade, especially the emergence of natriuretic peptides, which have been widely used as reliable markers for diagnostic and prognostic evaluation. Identification of new reliable markers for diagnosis, analysis, prognosis of mortality and prevention of hospitalization is still necessary. Galectin-3 is a soluble β-galactoside-binding protein secreted by activated macrophages. Its main action is to bind to and activate the fibroblasts that form collagen and scar tissue, leading to progressive cardiac fibrosis. Numerous experimental studies have shown the important role of galectin-3 in cardiac remodelling due to fibrosis, independent of the fibrosis aetiology. Galectin-3 is significantly increased in chronic heart failure (acute or non-acute onset), independent of aetiology. Some clinical studies have confirmed the predictive value of galectin-3 in all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. In our review, we aim to analyse the role of galectin-3 in the development of heart failure, its value in screening and clinical decision making and its possible predictive application in follow-up as a "routine" test in an addition to established biomarkers, such as B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Progressive Damage and Failure Analysis of Composite Laminates

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Ashith P. K.

Composite materials are widely used in various industries for making structural parts due to higher strength to weight ratio, better fatigue life, corrosion resistance and material property tailorability. To fully exploit the capability of composites, it is required to know the load carrying capacity of the parts made of them. Unlike metals, composites are orthotropic in nature and fails in a complex manner under various loading conditions which makes it a hard problem to analyze. Lack of reliable and efficient failure analysis tools for composites have led industries to rely more on coupon and component level testing to estimate the design space. Due to the complex failure mechanisms, composite materials require a very large number of coupon level tests to fully characterize the behavior. This makes the entire testing process very time consuming and costly. The alternative is to use virtual testing tools which can predict the complex failure mechanisms accurately. This reduces the cost only to it's associated computational expenses making significant savings. Some of the most desired features in a virtual testing tool are - (1) Accurate representation of failure mechanism: Failure progression predicted by the virtual tool must be same as those observed in experiments. A tool has to be assessed based on the mechanisms it can capture. (2) Computational efficiency: The greatest advantages of a virtual tools are the savings in time and money and hence computational efficiency is one of the most needed features. (3) Applicability to a wide range of problems: Structural parts are subjected to a variety of loading conditions including static, dynamic and fatigue conditions. A good virtual testing tool should be able to make good predictions for all these different loading conditions. The aim of this PhD thesis is to develop a computational tool which can model the progressive failure of composite laminates under different quasi-static loading conditions. The analysis

Business ethics and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Turkish economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekrem Erdem

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The roots of the science of modern economics are originated from the ideas of Adam Smith who is not a pure economist but a moralist-philosopher. Basic concepts in the Wealth of Nations which is perceived as the hand book of economics depend on the arguments that Adam Smith suggests in his Theory of Moral Sentiments. In this theory, business ethics as a part of the Law of Sympathy appears as one of the factors that provide the invisible hand to operate properly. In light of this property, it is possible to assume business ethics as one of the components of the market mechanism. In this context, this study aims to analyse the link between business ethics and economic growth in the Turkish economy. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs bounced cheques and protested bonds for representing the degradation of business ethics and tries to show how this degradation affects economic growth in the Turkish economy for the period 1988-2013. Findings – Either illustrative or empirical results show that business ethics is an important determinant of economic growth in the Turkish economy and damaging it negatively effects the growth rate of the economy. Research limitations/implications – One of the most restrictive things conducting the present empirical analysis is the lack of various and longer data sets. Using different indicators in terms of business ethics with longer time span will definitely increase the reliability of the study. However, in the current form, results imply a policy that is capable of limiting the failures of business ethics may boost the Turkish economy up. Originality/value – The results tend to support the close link between business ethics and economic growth.

An Economic Evaluation of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Heart Failure Patients in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Pol, Simon; Degener, Fabian; Postma, Maarten J; Vemer, Pepijn

2017-03-01

In September 2014, the PARADIGM-HF trial showed the heart failure drug combination sacubitril/valsartan to be superior to enalapril for patients with a reduced ejection fraction. To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril in the Netherlands using the clinical data from the PARADIGM-HF trial. To compare sacubitril/valsartan and enalapril in a cost-effectiveness study, a Markov model was developed using the effectiveness data from the PARADIGM-HF trial. A health care payer's perspective was applied in the economic evaluation. The developed model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for sacubitril/valsartan at different per diem prices. The base-case analysis showed that sacubitril/valsartan can be cost-effective at maximum daily costs of €5.50 and €14.14 considering willingness-to-pay thresholds of €20,000 and €50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the model, identifying only the price of sacubitril/valsartan and the mortality within the sacubitril/valsartan group as significant drivers of the cost-effectiveness ratio. Sacubitril/valsartan was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY (€50,000 per QALY) in more than 80% of the replications with certainty at the price point of €3 (€10). Sacubitril/valsartan can be considered a cost-effective treatment at a daily price of €5.25. Unless priced lower than enalapril (sacubitril/valsartan is very unlikely to be cost-saving/dominant. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dependency Analysis Guidance Nordic/German Working Group on Common Cause Failure analysis. Phase 2, Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Guenter; Johanson, Gunnar; Lindberg, Sandra; Vaurio, Jussi

2009-03-15

The Regulatory Code SSMFS 2008:1 of Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) includes requirements regarding the performance of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA), as well as PSA activities in general. Therefore, the follow-up of these activities is part of the inspection tasks of SSM. According to the SSMFS 2008:1, the safety analyses shall be based on a systematic identification and evaluation of such events, event sequences and other conditions which may lead to a radiological accident. The research report Nordic/German Working Group on Common cause Failure analysis. Phase 2 project report: Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification has been developed under a contract with the Nordic PSA Group (NPSAG) and its German counterpart VGB, with the aim to create a common experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures i.e. Common Cause Failures CCF. Phase 2 in this project if a deepened data analyses of CCF events and a demonstration on how the so called impact vectors can be constructed and on how CCF parameters are estimated. The word Guidance in the report title is used in order to indicate a common methodological guidance accepted by the NPSAG, based on current state of the art concerning the analysis of dependent failures and adapted to conditions relevant for Nordic sites. This will make it possible for the utilities to perform cost effective improvements and analyses. The report presents a common attempt by the authorities and the utilities to create a methodology and experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures. The performed benchmark application has shown how important the interpretation of base data is to obtain robust CCF data and data analyses results. Good features were found in all benchmark approaches. The obtained experiences and approaches should now be used in harmonised procedures. A next step could be to develop and agree on event and formula driven impact vector

Dependency Analysis Guidance Nordic/German Working Group on Common Cause Failure analysis. Phase 2, Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, Guenter; Johanson, Gunnar; Lindberg, Sandra; Vaurio, Jussi

2009-03-01

The Regulatory Code SSMFS 2008:1 of Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) includes requirements regarding the performance of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA), as well as PSA activities in general. Therefore, the follow-up of these activities is part of the inspection tasks of SSM. According to the SSMFS 2008:1, the safety analyses shall be based on a systematic identification and evaluation of such events, event sequences and other conditions which may lead to a radiological accident. The research report Nordic/German Working Group on Common cause Failure analysis. Phase 2 project report: Development of Harmonized Approach and Applications for Common Cause Failure Quantification has been developed under a contract with the Nordic PSA Group (NPSAG) and its German counterpart VGB, with the aim to create a common experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures i.e. Common Cause Failures CCF. Phase 2 in this project if a deepened data analyses of CCF events and a demonstration on how the so called impact vectors can be constructed and on how CCF parameters are estimated. The word Guidance in the report title is used in order to indicate a common methodological guidance accepted by the NPSAG, based on current state of the art concerning the analysis of dependent failures and adapted to conditions relevant for Nordic sites. This will make it possible for the utilities to perform cost effective improvements and analyses. The report presents a common attempt by the authorities and the utilities to create a methodology and experience base for defence and analysis of dependent failures. The performed benchmark application has shown how important the interpretation of base data is to obtain robust CCF data and data analyses results. Good features were found in all benchmark approaches. The obtained experiences and approaches should now be used in harmonised procedures. A next step could be to develop and agree on event and formula driven impact vector

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

2015-01-01

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Failure analysis of the cement mantle in total hip arthroplasty with an efficient probabilistic method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaymaz, Irfan; Bayrak, Ozgu; Karsan, Orhan; Celik, Ayhan; Alsaran, Akgun

2014-04-01

Accurate prediction of long-term behaviour of cemented hip implants is very important not only for patient comfort but also for elimination of any revision operation due to failure of implants. Therefore, a more realistic computer model was generated and then used for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses of the hip implant in this study. The deterministic failure analysis was carried out for the most common failure states of the cement mantle. On the other hand, most of the design parameters of the cemented hip are inherently uncertain quantities. Therefore, the probabilistic failure analysis was also carried out considering the fatigue failure of the cement mantle since it is the most critical failure state. However, the probabilistic analysis generally requires large amount of time; thus, a response surface method proposed in this study was used to reduce the computation time for the analysis of the cemented hip implant. The results demonstrate that using an efficient probabilistic approach can significantly reduce the computation time for the failure probability of the cement from several hours to minutes. The results also show that even the deterministic failure analyses do not indicate any failure of the cement mantle with high safety factors, the probabilistic analysis predicts the failure probability of the cement mantle as 8%, which must be considered during the evaluation of the success of the cemented hip implants.

Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2011-09-01

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Tests and analysis on steam generator tube failure propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanabe, Hiromi

1990-01-01

The understanding of leak enlargement and failure propagation behavior is essential to select a design basis leak (DBL) of LMFBR steam generators. Therefore, various series of experiments, such as self-enlargement tests, target wastage tests, failure propagation tests were conducted in a wide range of leak using test facilities of SWAT at PNC/OEC. Especially, in the large leak tests, potential of overheating failure was investigated under a prototypical steam cooling condition inside target tubes. In the small leak, the difference of wastage resistivity was clarified among several tube materials such as 9-chrome steels. In regard to an analytical approach, a computer code LEAP (Leak Enlargement and Propagation) was developed on the basis of all of these experimental results. The code was used to validate the previously selected DBL of the prototype reactor, Monju, steam generator. This approach proved to be successful in spite of somewhat over-conservatism in the analysis. Moreover, LEAP clarified the effectiveness of a rapid steam dump and an enhanced leak detection system. The code improvement toward a realistic analysis is desired, however, to lessen the DBL for a future large plant and then the re-evaluation of the experimental data such as the size of secondary failure is under way. (author). 4 refs, 8 figs, 1 tab

Failure analysis of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Yanfei; Zhang, Hong; Zhang, Juan; Li, Xin; Zhou, Jing

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We study failure of high strength pipelines with single corrosion. • We give regression equations for failure pressure prediction. • We propose assessment procedure for pipelines with multiple corrosions. - Abstract: Corrosion will compromise safety operation of oil and gas pipelines, accurate determination of failure pressure finds importance in residual strength assessment and corrosion allowance design of onshore and offshore pipelines. This paper investigates failure pressure of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions using nonlinear finite element analysis. On the basis of developed regression equations for failure pressure prediction of high strength pipeline with single corrosion, the paper proposes an assessment procedure for predicting failure pressure of high strength pipeline with multiple corrosions. Furthermore, failure pressures predicted by proposed solutions are compared with experimental results and various assessment methods available in literature, where accuracy and versatility are demonstrated

Failure analysis on a chemical waste pipe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambler, J.R.

1985-01-01

A failure analysis of a chemical waste pipe illustrates how nuclear technology can spin off metallurgical consultant services. The pipe, made of zirconium alloy (Zr-2.5 wt percent Nb, UNS 60705), had cracked in several places, all at butt welds. A combination of fractography and metallography indicated delayed hydride cracking

PACC information management code for common cause failures analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega Prieto, P.; Garcia Gay, J.; Mira McWilliams, J.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present the PACC code, which, through an adequate data management, makes the task of computerized common-mode failure analysis easier. PACC processes and generates information in order to carry out the corresponding qualitative analysis, by means of the boolean technique of transformation of variables, and the quantitative analysis either using one of several parametric methods or a direct data-base. As far as the qualitative analysis is concerned, the code creates several functional forms for the transformation equations according to the user's choice. These equations are subsequently processed by boolean manipulation codes, such as SETS. The quantitative calculations of the code can be carried out in two different ways: either starting from a common cause data-base, or through parametric methods, such as the Binomial Failure Rate Method, the Basic Parameters Method or the Multiple Greek Letter Method, among others. (orig.)

The analysis of failure data in the presence of critical and degraded failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haugen, Knut; Hokstad, Per; Sandtorv, Helge

1997-01-01

Reported failures are often classified into severityclasses, e.g., as critical or degraded. The critical failures correspond to loss of function(s) and are those of main concern. The rate of critical failures is usually estimated by the number of observed critical failures divided by the exposure time, thus ignoring the observed degraded failures. In the present paper failure data are analyzed, applying an alternative estimate for the critical failure rate, also taking the number of observed degraded failures into account. The model includes two alternative failure mechanisms, one being of the shock type, immediately leading to a critical failure, another resulting in a gradual deterioration, leading to a degraded failure before the critical failure occurs. Failure data on safety valves from the OREDA (Offshore REliability DAta) data base are analyzed using this model. The estimate for the critical failure rate is obtained and compared with the standard estimate

Failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree analysis of surface image guided cranial radiosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Manger, Ryan P; Paxton, Adam B; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2015-05-01

Surface image guided, Linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS) is a modern approach for delivering radiosurgery that utilizes optical stereoscopic imaging to monitor the surface of the patient during treatment in lieu of using a head frame for patient immobilization. Considering the novelty of the SIG-RS approach and the severity of errors associated with delivery of large doses per fraction, a risk assessment should be conducted to identify potential hazards, determine their causes, and formulate mitigation strategies. The purpose of this work is to investigate SIG-RS using the combined application of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), report on the effort required to complete the analysis, and evaluate the use of FTA in conjunction with FMEA. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to conduct the FMEA on the SIG-RS process. A process map detailing the steps of the SIG-RS was created to guide the FMEA. Failure modes were determined for each step in the SIG-RS process, and risk priority numbers (RPNs) were estimated for each failure mode to facilitate risk stratification. The failure modes were ranked by RPN, and FTA was used to determine the root factors contributing to the riskiest failure modes. Using the FTA, mitigation strategies were formulated to address the root factors and reduce the risk of the process. The RPNs were re-estimated based on the mitigation strategies to determine the margin of risk reduction. The FMEA and FTAs for the top two failure modes required an effort of 36 person-hours (30 person-hours for the FMEA and 6 person-hours for two FTAs). The SIG-RS process consisted of 13 major subprocesses and 91 steps, which amounted to 167 failure modes. Of the 91 steps, 16 were directly related to surface imaging. Twenty-five failure modes resulted in a RPN of 100 or greater. Only one of these top 25 failure modes was specific to surface imaging. The riskiest surface imaging failure mode had an overall RPN-rank of eighth

Importance of competing risks in the analysis of anti-epileptic drug failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sander Josemir W

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Retention time (time to treatment failure is a commonly used outcome in antiepileptic drug (AED studies. Methods Two datasets are used to demonstrate the issues in a competing risks analysis of AEDs. First, data collection and follow-up considerations are discussed with reference to information from 15 monotherapy trials. Recommendations for improved data collection and cumulative incidence analysis are then illustrated using the SANAD trial dataset. The results are compared to the more common approach using standard survival analysis methods. Results A non-significant difference in overall treatment failure time between gabapentin and topiramate (logrank test statistic = 0.01, 1 degree of freedom, p-value = 0.91 masked highly significant differences in opposite directions with gabapentin resulting in fewer withdrawals due to side effects (Gray's test statistic = 11.60, 1 degree of freedom, p = 0.0007 but more due to poor seizure control (Gray's test statistic = 14.47, 1 degree of freedom, p-value = 0.0001. The significant difference in overall treatment failure time between lamotrigine and carbamazepine (logrank test statistic = 5.6, 1 degree of freedom, p-value = 0.018 was due entirely to a significant benefit of lamotrigine in terms of side effects (Gray's test statistic = 10.27, 1 degree of freedom, p = 0.001. Conclusion Treatment failure time can be measured reliably but care is needed to collect sufficient information on reasons for drug withdrawal to allow a competing risks analysis. Important differences between the profiles of AEDs may be missed unless appropriate statistical methods are used to fully investigate treatment failure time. Cumulative incidence analysis allows comparison of the probability of failure between two AEDs and is likely to be a more powerful approach than logrank analysis for most comparisons of standard and new anti-epileptic drugs.

Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

2010-01-01

The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

Application of failure mode and effect analysis in a radiology department.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Eavan; Brook, Olga R; Mendiratta-Lala, Mishal; Hallett, Donna T; Kruskal, Jonathan B

2011-01-01

With increasing deployment, complexity, and sophistication of equipment and related processes within the clinical imaging environment, system failures are more likely to occur. These failures may have varying effects on the patient, ranging from no harm to devastating harm. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool that permits the proactive identification of possible failures in complex processes and provides a basis for continuous improvement. This overview of the basic principles and methodology of FMEA provides an explanation of how FMEA can be applied to clinical operations in a radiology department to reduce, predict, or prevent errors. The six sequential steps in the FMEA process are explained, and clinical magnetic resonance imaging services are used as an example for which FMEA is particularly applicable. A modified version of traditional FMEA called Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, which was introduced by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs National Center for Patient Safety, is briefly reviewed. In conclusion, FMEA is an effective and reliable method to proactively examine complex processes in the radiology department. FMEA can be used to highlight the high-risk subprocesses and allows these to be targeted to minimize the future occurrence of failures, thus improving patient safety and streamlining the efficiency of the radiology department. RSNA, 2010

Exact combinatorial reliability analysis of dynamic systems with sequence-dependent failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xing Liudong; Shrestha, Akhilesh; Dai Yuanshun

2011-01-01

Many real-life fault-tolerant systems are subjected to sequence-dependent failure behavior, in which the order in which the fault events occur is important to the system reliability. Such systems can be modeled by dynamic fault trees (DFT) with priority-AND (pAND) gates. Existing approaches for the reliability analysis of systems subjected to sequence-dependent failures are typically state-space-based, simulation-based or inclusion-exclusion-based methods. Those methods either suffer from the state-space explosion problem or require long computation time especially when results with high degree of accuracy are desired. In this paper, an analytical method based on sequential binary decision diagrams is proposed. The proposed approach can analyze the exact reliability of non-repairable dynamic systems subjected to the sequence-dependent failure behavior. Also, the proposed approach is combinatorial and is applicable for analyzing systems with any arbitrary component time-to-failure distributions. The application and advantages of the proposed approach are illustrated through analysis of several examples. - Highlights: → We analyze the sequence-dependent failure behavior using combinatorial models. → The method has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions. → The method is analytical and based on sequential binary decision diagrams (SBDD). → The method is computationally more efficient than existing methods.

Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bichon, Barron J.; McFarland, John M.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2011-01-01

Despite many advances in the field of computational reliability analysis, the efficient estimation of the reliability of a system with multiple failure modes remains a persistent challenge. Various sampling and analytical methods are available, but they typically require accepting a tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency. In this work, a surrogate-based approach is presented that simultaneously addresses the issues of accuracy, efficiency, and unimportant failure modes. The method is based on the creation of Gaussian process surrogate models that are required to be locally accurate only in the regions of the component limit states that contribute to system failure. This approach to constructing surrogate models is demonstrated to be both an efficient and accurate method for system-level reliability analysis. - Highlights: → Extends efficient global reliability analysis to systems with multiple failure modes. → Constructs locally accurate Gaussian process models of each response. → Highly efficient and accurate method for assessing system reliability. → Effectiveness is demonstrated on several test problems from the literature.

Development of component failure data for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fray, R.R.; Moulia, T.A.

1981-01-01

This paper describes the quantification and utilization of seismic failure data used in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Risk Study. A single variable representation of earthquake severity that uses peak horizontal ground acceleration to characterize earthquake severity was employed. The use of a multiple variable representation would allow direct consideration of vertical accelerations and the spectral nature of earthquakes but would have added such complexity that the study would not have been feasible. Vertical accelerations and spectral nature were indirectly considered because component failure data were derived from design analyses, qualification tests and engineering judgment that did include such considerations. Two types of functions were used to describe component failure probabilities. Ramp functions were used for components, such as piping and structures, qualified by stress analysis. 'Anchor points' for ramp functions were selected by assuming a zero probability of failure at code allowable stress levels and unity probability of failure at ultimate stress levels. The accelerations corresponding to allowable and ultimate stress levels were determined by conservatively assuming a linear relationship between seismic stress and ground acceleration. Step functions were used for components, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, qualified by testing. Anchor points for step functions were selected by assuming a unity probability of failure above the qualification acceleration. (orig./HP)

Timing analysis of PWR fuel pin failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, K.R.; Wade, N.L.; Katsma, K.R.; Siefken, L.J.; Straka, M.

1992-09-01

Research has been conducted to develop and demonstrate a methodology for calculation of the time interval between receipt of the containment isolation signals and the first fuel pin failure for loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). Demonstration calculations were performed for a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) design (Oconee) and a Westinghouse (W) four-loop design (Seabrook). Sensitivity studies were performed to assess the impacts of fuel pin bumup, axial peaking factor, break size, emergency core cooling system availability, and main coolant pump trip on these times. The analysis was performed using the following codes: FRAPCON-2, for the calculation of steady-state fuel behavior; SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 and TRACPF1/MOD1, for the calculation of the transient thermal-hydraulic conditions in the reactor system; and FRAP-T6, for the calculation of transient fuel behavior. In addition to the calculation of fuel pin failure timing, this analysis provides a comparison of the predicted results of SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 and TRAC-PFL/MOD1 for large-break LOCA analysis. Using SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 thermal-hydraulic data, the shortest time intervals calculated between initiation of containment isolation and fuel pin failure are 10.4 seconds and 19.1 seconds for the B ampersand W and W plants, respectively. Using data generated by TRAC-PF1/MOD1, the shortest intervals are 10.3 seconds and 29.1 seconds for the B ampersand W and W plants, respectively. These intervals are for a double-ended, offset-shear, cold leg break, using the technical specification maximum peaking factor and applied to fuel with maximum design bumup. Using peaking factors commensurate widi actual bumups would result in longer intervals for both reactor designs. This document also contains appendices A through J of this report

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Wind Turbine Systems in China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhu, Jiangsheng; Ma, Kuichao; N. Soltani, Mohsen

2017-01-01

This paper discusses a cost based Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approch for the Wind Turbine (WT) with condition monitoring system in China. Normally, the traditional FMEA uses the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to rank failure modes. But the RPN can be changed with the Condition Monitoring...... Systems (CMS) due to change of the score of detection. The cost of failure mode should also be considered because faults can be detected at an incipient level, and condition-based maintenance can be scheduled. The results show that the proposed failure mode priorities considering their cost consequences...

Young Adults Failure to Thrive Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warren C. Sanderson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Many young working age adults in developed countries are failing to thrive in economic, demographic and social terms. Their failure to thrive is a relatively new phenomenon that has not been widely recognized, but it affects young adults in virtually all the more developed countries for which we have relevant data. Young adults nowadays are more often in poverty. They are leaving their parental homes at ever later ages and in some countries the frequency of psychological problems increased. The seriousness of failure to thrive syndrome is reflected in the relationship between relative economic conditions and increased suicide rates. The syndrome is important because young adults are at the prime ages for finding employment, establishing long-run career paths and building an economic basis for founding a family. Developing strategies to arrest the spread of failure to thrive syndrome among young adults, in order to keep them vibrant contributors to our societies, should be a priority for policy makers.

Optimal tread design for agricultural lug tires determined through failure analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun Seok Song

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Agricultural lug tires, commonly used in tractors, must provide safe and stable support for the body of the vehicle and bear any additional load while effectively traversing rough, poor-quality ground surfaces. Many agricultural lug tires fail unexpectedly. In this study, we optimised and validated a tread design for agricultural lug tires intended to increase their durability using failure analysis. Specifically, we identified tire failure modes using indoor driving tests and failure mode effects analysis. Next, we developed a threedimensional tire model using the Ogden material model and finite element method. Using sensitivity analysis and response surface methodology, we optimised the tread design. Finally, we evaluated the durability of the new design using a tire prototype and drum test equipment. Results indicated that the optimised tread design decreased the tire tread stress by 16% and increased its time until cracking by 38% compared to conventional agricultural lug tires.

Software failure events derivation and analysis by frame-based technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, H.-W.; Shih, C.; Yih, Swu; Chen, M.-H.

2007-01-01

A frame-based technique, including physical frame, logical frame, and cognitive frame, was adopted to perform digital I and C failure events derivation and analysis for generic ABWR. The physical frame was structured with a modified PCTran-ABWR plant simulation code, which was extended and enhanced on the feedwater system, recirculation system, and steam line system. The logical model is structured with MATLAB, which was incorporated into PCTran-ABWR to improve the pressure control system, feedwater control system, recirculation control system, and automated power regulation control system. As a result, the software failure of these digital control systems can be properly simulated and analyzed. The cognitive frame was simulated by the operator awareness status in the scenarios. Moreover, via an internal characteristics tuning technique, the modified PCTran-ABWR can precisely reflect the characteristics of the power-core flow. Hence, in addition to the transient plots, the analysis results can then be demonstrated on the power-core flow map. A number of postulated I and C system software failure events were derived to achieve the dynamic analyses. The basis for event derivation includes the published classification for software anomalies, the digital I and C design data for ABWR, chapter 15 accident analysis of generic SAR, and the reported NPP I and C software failure events. The case study of this research includes: (1) the software CMF analysis for the major digital control systems; and (2) postulated ABWR digital I and C software failure events derivation from the actual happening of non-ABWR digital I and C software failure events, which were reported to LER of USNRC or IRS of IAEA. These events were analyzed by PCTran-ABWR. Conflicts among plant status, computer status, and human cognitive status are successfully identified. The operator might not easily recognize the abnormal condition, because the computer status seems to progress normally. However, a well

Low Carbon-Oriented Optimal Reliability Design with Interval Product Failure Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yixiong Feng

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The problem of large amounts of carbon emissions causes wide concern across the world, and it has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. The intensive research into technologies and methodologies for green product design has significant theoretical meaning and practical value in reducing the emissions of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, a low carbon-oriented product reliability optimal design model is proposed in this paper: (1 The related expert evaluation information was prepared in interval numbers; (2 An improved product failure analysis considering the uncertain carbon emissions of the subsystem was performed to obtain the subsystem weight taking the carbon emissions into consideration. The interval grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the subsystem weight taking the uncertain correlations inside the product into consideration. Using the above two kinds of subsystem weights and different caution indicators of the decision maker, a series of product reliability design schemes is available; (3 The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs were employed to select the optimal reliability and optimal design scheme based on three attributes, namely, low carbon, correlation and functions, and economic cost. The case study of a vertical CNC lathe proves the superiority and rationality of the proposed method.

Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

2014-01-01

Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data

CERN Document Server

Kalbfleisch, John D

2011-01-01

Contains additional discussion and examples on left truncation as well as material on more general censoring and truncation patterns.Introduces the martingale and counting process formulation swil lbe in a new chapter.Develops multivariate failure time data in a separate chapter and extends the material on Markov and semi Markov formulations.Presents new examples and applications of data analysis.

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Assistant Tool Feasibility Study

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, Melissa D.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.

2013-09-01

An effort to determine the feasibility of a software tool to assist in Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been completed. This new and unique approach to FMEA uses model based systems engineering concepts to recommend failure modes, causes, and effects to the user after they have made several selections from pick lists about a component's functions and inputs/outputs. Recommendations are made based on a library using common failure modes identified over the course of several major human spaceflight programs. However, the tool could be adapted for use in a wide range of applications from NASA to the energy industry.

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Assistant Tool Feasibility Study

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, Melissa; Malin, Jane T.

2013-01-01

An effort to determine the feasibility of a software tool to assist in Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been completed. This new and unique approach to FMEA uses model based systems engineering concepts to recommend failure modes, causes, and effects to the user after they have made several selections from pick lists about a component s functions and inputs/outputs. Recommendations are made based on a library using common failure modes identified over the course of several major human spaceflight programs. However, the tool could be adapted for use in a wide range of applications from NASA to the energy industry.

Causes of liver failure and impact analysis of prognostic risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WU Xiaoqing

2013-04-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo perform a retrospective analysis of patients with liver failure to investigate the causative factors and related risk factors that may affect patient prognosis. MethodsThe clinical, demographic, and laboratory data of 79 consecutive patients diagnosed with liver failure and treated at our hospital between January 2010 and January 2012 (58 males and 21 females; age range: 16-74 years old were collected from the medical records. To identify risk factors of liver failure, the patient variables were assessed by Student’s t-test (continuous variables or Chi-squared test (categorical variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relation between patient outcome and independent risk factors. ResultsThe 79 cases of liver failure were grouped according to disease severity: acute liver failure (n=6; 5 died, subacute liver failure (n=35; 19 died, and chronic liver failure (n=38; 28 died. The overall rate of death was 66%. The majority of cases (81% were related to hepatitis B virus infection. While the three groups of liver failure severity did not show significant differences in sex, mean age, occupation, presence of potassium disorder, total bilirubin (TBil or total cholesterol (CHO at admission, or lowest recorded level of CHO during hospitalization, there were significant intergroup differences in highest recorded TBil level, prothrombin activity (PTA at admission, and highest and lowest recorded PTA, and highest recorded level of CHO. Five independent risk factors were identified: the highest recorded TBil level during hospitalization, presence of infection, hepatorenal syndrome, gastrointestinal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy. ConclusionThe major cause of liver failure in this cohort of patients was hepatitis infection, and common biomarkers of liver function, such as TBil, CHO and PTA, may indicate patients with poor prognosis despite clinical intervention. Complications should be addressed as

Failure analysis a practical guide for manufacturers of electronic components and systems

CERN Document Server

Bâzu, Marius

2011-01-01

Failure analysis is the preferred method to investigate product or process reliability and to ensure optimum performance of electrical components and systems. The physics-of-failure approach is the only internationally accepted solution for continuously improving the reliability of materials, devices and processes. The models have been developed from the physical and chemical phenomena that are responsible for degradation or failure of electronic components and materials and now replace popular distribution models for failure mechanisms such as Weibull or lognormal. Reliability engineers nee

Analysis of the failure of a vacuum spin-pit drive turbine spindle shaft

OpenAIRE

Pettitt, Jason M.

2005-01-01

The Naval Postgraduate School's Rotor Spin Research Facility experienced a failure in the Spring of 2005 in which the rotor dropped from the drive turbine and caused extensive damage. A failure analysis of the drive turbine spindle shaft was conducted in order to determine the cause of failure: whether due to a material or design flaw. Also, a dynamic analysis was conducted in order to determine the natural modes present in the system and the associated frequencies that could have contributed...

Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kančev, Duško, E-mail: dusko.kancev@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwetnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

2014-07-01

Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit; Maqua, Michael; Wattrelos, Didier

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Economic Analysis on Shrunk-on Type Low Pressure Turbine Retrofit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seong-hoon; Roh, Myung-sub

2015-01-01

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of low pressure turbines (LPTs) is one of the most critical aging issues. In particular, LPTs with shrunk-on type rotors are more susceptible to SCC as cracks can be initiated in the disk keyway regions as well as in bucket attachment areas. Many utilities have been replacing old LPTs with the advanced designs which improve not only SCC reliability but thermal performance. However LPT retrofit still requires a substantial capital investment, and the plant owners should perform an economic analysis prior to making a decision on the timing of LPT retrofit. In Korea, seventy (70) LPTs are being operated at twenty-four (24) nuclear power plants (NPPs). Eight stations (Kori-1-4, Hanbit-1-2, and Hanul-1-2) have already replaced their LPTs. Considering the operation age of remaining LPTs in Korea, the next targets for retrofit will be the twelve (12) shrunk-on type LPTs at four plants (Hanbit-3-4, Hanul-3-4). In this study, we will review the inspection status of shrunk-on type LPTs in Korea, and perform economic analysis on LPT retrofit based on four alternative cases. Now that operation age of twelve (12) shrunk-on type PWR LPTs in Korea has reached about twenty (20) years, a program needs to be considered to manage retrofit projects as a of long term maintenance. In this paper, the inspection status of those LPTs was reviewed along with an economic assessment on LPT retrofit based on the four alternative scenarios. To date, NDE results for the shrunk-on type LPT fleet in Korea have been quite positive (i.e. indications have been below the threshold size). However, the current NDE intervals should be maintained to closely monitor those indications which can develop into SCC cracks in the future. In addition, retrofit of LPTs should be considered to minimize the probability of future failure. According to the simplified economic analysis here, revenue can be maximized for the case LPT retrofit implementation after thirty (30) years of

Economic Analysis on Shrunk-on Type Low Pressure Turbine Retrofit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seong-hoon; Roh, Myung-sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of low pressure turbines (LPTs) is one of the most critical aging issues. In particular, LPTs with shrunk-on type rotors are more susceptible to SCC as cracks can be initiated in the disk keyway regions as well as in bucket attachment areas. Many utilities have been replacing old LPTs with the advanced designs which improve not only SCC reliability but thermal performance. However LPT retrofit still requires a substantial capital investment, and the plant owners should perform an economic analysis prior to making a decision on the timing of LPT retrofit. In Korea, seventy (70) LPTs are being operated at twenty-four (24) nuclear power plants (NPPs). Eight stations (Kori-1-4, Hanbit-1-2, and Hanul-1-2) have already replaced their LPTs. Considering the operation age of remaining LPTs in Korea, the next targets for retrofit will be the twelve (12) shrunk-on type LPTs at four plants (Hanbit-3-4, Hanul-3-4). In this study, we will review the inspection status of shrunk-on type LPTs in Korea, and perform economic analysis on LPT retrofit based on four alternative cases. Now that operation age of twelve (12) shrunk-on type PWR LPTs in Korea has reached about twenty (20) years, a program needs to be considered to manage retrofit projects as a of long term maintenance. In this paper, the inspection status of those LPTs was reviewed along with an economic assessment on LPT retrofit based on the four alternative scenarios. To date, NDE results for the shrunk-on type LPT fleet in Korea have been quite positive (i.e. indications have been below the threshold size). However, the current NDE intervals should be maintained to closely monitor those indications which can develop into SCC cracks in the future. In addition, retrofit of LPTs should be considered to minimize the probability of future failure. According to the simplified economic analysis here, revenue can be maximized for the case LPT retrofit implementation after thirty (30) years of

Failure analysis of motor bearing of sea water pump in nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bian Chunhua; Zhang Wei

2015-01-01

The motor bearing of sea water pump in Qinshan Phase II Nuclear Power plant broke after only one year's using. This paper introduces failure analysis process of the motor bearing. Chemical composition analysis, metallic phase analysis, micrographic examination, and hardness analysis, dimension analysis of each part of the bearing, as well as the high temperature and low temperature performance analysis of lubricating grease are performed. According to the analysis above mentioned, the failure mode of the bearing is wearing, and the reason of wearing is inappropriate installation of the bearing. (authors)

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

ALMR deployment economic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-06-01

This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

Patterns of Failure After MammoSite Brachytherapy Partial Breast Irradiation: A Detailed Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Sea; Dickler, Adam; Kirk, Michael; Shah, Anand; Jokich, Peter; Solmos, Gene; Strauss, Jonathan; Dowlatshahi, Kambiz; Nguyen, Cam; Griem, Katherine

2007-01-01

Purpose: To report the results of a detailed analysis of treatment failures after MammoSite breast brachytherapy for partial breast irradiation from our single-institution experience. Methods and Materials: Between October 14, 2002 and October 23, 2006, 78 patients with early-stage breast cancer were treated with breast-conserving surgery and accelerated partial breast irradiation using the MammoSite brachytherapy applicator. We identified five treatment failures in the 70 patients with >6 months' follow-up. Pathologic data, breast imaging, and radiation treatment plans were reviewed. For in-breast failures more than 2 cm away from the original surgical bed, the doses delivered to the areas of recurrence by partial breast irradiation were calculated. Results: At a median follow-up time of 26.1 months, five treatment failures were identified. There were three in-breast failures more than 2 cm away from the original surgical bed, one failure directly adjacent to the original surgical bed, and one failure in the axilla with synchronous distant metastases. The crude failure rate was 7.1% (5 of 70), and the crude local failure rate was 5.7% (4 of 70). Estimated progression-free survival at 48 months was 89.8% (standard error 4.5%). Conclusions: Our case series of 70 patients with >6 months' follow-up and a median follow-up of 26 months is the largest single-institution report to date with detailed failure analysis associated with MammoSite brachytherapy. Our failure data emphasize the importance of patient selection when offering partial breast irradiation

Laboratory and 3-D-distinct element analysis of failure mechanism of slope under external surcharge

Science.gov (United States)

Li, N.; Cheng, Y. M.

2014-09-01

Landslide is a major disaster resulting in considerable loss of human lives and property damages in hilly terrain in Hong Kong, China and many other countries. The factor of safety and the critical slip surface for slope stabilization are the main considerations for slope stability analysis in the past, while the detailed post-failure conditions of the slopes have not been considered in sufficient details. There are however increasing interest on the consequences after the initiation of failure which includes the development and propagation of the failure surfaces, the amount of failed mass and runoff and the affected region. To assess the development of slope failure in more details and to consider the potential danger of slopes after failure has initiated, the slope stability problem under external surcharge is analyzed by the distinct element method (DEM) and laboratory model test in the present research. A more refined study about the development of failure, microcosmic failure mechanism and the post-failure mechanism of slope will be carried out. The numerical modeling method and the various findings from the present work can provide an alternate method of analysis of slope failure which can give additional information not available from the classical methods of analysis.

The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, R.P.

1989-01-01

The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)

Failure analysis of multiple delaminated composite plates due

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The present work aims at the first ply failure analysis of laminated composite plates with arbitrarily located multiple delaminations subjected to transverse static load as well as impact. The theoretical formulation is based on a simple multiple delamination model. Conventional first order shear deformation is assumed using ...

Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.Yu. Chik

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.

Exploitation of a component event data bank for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Games, A.M.; Amendola, A.; Martin, P.

1985-01-01

Investigations into using the European Reliability Data System Component Event Data Bank for common cause failure analysis have been carried out. Starting from early exercises where data were analyzed without computer aid, different types of linked multiple failures have been identified. A classification system is proposed based on this experience. It defines a multiple failure event space wherein each category defines causal, modal, temporal and structural links between failures. It is shown that a search algorithm which incorporates the specific interrogative procedures of the data bank can be developed in conjunction with this classification system. It is concluded that the classification scheme and the search algorithm are useful organizational tools in the field of common cause failures studies. However, it is also suggested that the use of the term common cause failure should be avoided since it embodies to many different types of linked multiple failures

Sensor Failure Detection of FASSIP System using Principal Component Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sudarno; Juarsa, Mulya; Santosa, Kussigit; Deswandri; Sunaryo, Geni Rina

2018-02-01

In the nuclear reactor accident of Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, the damages of core and pressure vessel were caused by the failure of its active cooling system (diesel generator was inundated by tsunami). Thus researches on passive cooling system for Nuclear Power Plant are performed to improve the safety aspects of nuclear reactors. The FASSIP system (Passive System Simulation Facility) is an installation used to study the characteristics of passive cooling systems at nuclear power plants. The accuracy of sensor measurement of FASSIP system is essential, because as the basis for determining the characteristics of a passive cooling system. In this research, a sensor failure detection method for FASSIP system is developed, so the indication of sensor failures can be detected early. The method used is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimension of the sensor, with the Squarred Prediction Error (SPE) and statistic Hotteling criteria for detecting sensor failure indication. The results shows that PCA method is capable to detect the occurrence of a failure at any sensor.

Finite Element Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a Welded Furnace Roll for Identifying Failure Root Cause

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Y. P.; Mohr, W. C.

2015-11-01

Creep-fatigue induced failures are often observed in engineering components operating under high temperature and cyclic loading. Understanding the creep-fatigue damage process and identifying failure root cause are very important for preventing such failures and improving the lifetime of engineering components. Finite element analyses including a heat transfer analysis and a creep-fatigue analysis were conducted to model the cyclic thermal and mechanical process of a furnace roll in a continuous hot-dip coating line. Typically, the roll has a short life, modeling heat convection from hot air inside the furnace. The creep-fatigue analysis was performed by inputting the predicted temperature history and applying mechanical loads. The analysis results showed that the failure was resulted from a creep-fatigue mechanism rather than a creep mechanism. The difference of material properties between the filler metal and the base metal is the root cause for the roll failure, which induces higher creep strain and stress in the interface between the weld and the HAZ.

A pragmatic approach to estimate alpha factors for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassija, Varun; Senthil Kumar, C.; Velusamy, K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Estimation of coefficients in alpha factor model for common cause analysis. • A derivation of plant specific alpha factors is demonstrated. • We examine sensitivity of common cause contribution to total system failure. • We compare beta factor and alpha factor models for various redundant configurations. • The use of alpha factors is preferable, especially for large redundant systems. - Abstract: Most of the modern technological systems are deployed with high redundancy but still they fail mainly on account of common cause failures (CCF). Various models such as Beta Factor, Multiple Greek Letter, Binomial Failure Rate and Alpha Factor exists for estimation of risk from common cause failures. Amongst all, alpha factor model is considered most suitable for high redundant systems as it arrives at common cause failure probabilities from a set of ratios of failures and the total component failure probability Q T . In the present study, alpha factor model is applied for the assessment of CCF of safety systems deployed at two nuclear power plants. A method to overcome the difficulties in estimation of the coefficients viz., alpha factors in the model, importance of deriving plant specific alpha factors and sensitivity of common cause contribution to the total system failure probability with respect to hazard imposed by various CCF events is highlighted. An approach described in NUREG/CR-5500 is extended in this study to provide more explicit guidance for a statistical approach to derive plant specific coefficients for CCF analysis especially for high redundant systems. The procedure is expected to aid regulators for independent safety assessment

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

2015-12-01

Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

A statistical analysis of pellet-clad interaction failures in water reactor fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, S.G.; Fardo, R.D.; Sipush, P.J.; Kaiser, R.S.

1981-01-01

The primary objective of the statistical analysis was to develop a mathematical function that would predict PCI fuel rod failures as a function of the imposed operating conditions. Linear discriminant analysis of data from both test and commercial reactors was performed. The initial data base used encompassed 713 data points (117 failures and 596 non-failures) representing a wide variety of water cooled reactor fuel (PWR, BWR, CANDU, and SGHWR). When applied on a best-estimate basis, the resulting function simultaneously predicts approximately 80 percent of both the failure and non-failure data correctly. One of the most significant predictions of the analysis is that relatively large changes in power can be tolerated when the pre-ramp irradiation power is low, but that only small changes in power can be tolerated when the pre-ramp irradiation power is high. However, it is also predicted that fuel rods irradiated at low power will fail at lower final powers than those irradiated at high powers. Other results of the analysis are that fuel rods with high clad operating temperatures can withstand larger power increases that fuel rods with low clad operating temperatures, and that burnup has only a minimal effect on PCI performance after levels of approximately 10000 MWD/MTU have been exceeded. These trends in PCI performance and the operating parameters selected are believed to be consistent with mechanistic considerations. Published PCI data indicate that BWR fuel usually operates at higher local powers and changes in power, lower clad temperatures, and higher local ramp rates than PWR fuel

Analysis of valve failures from the NUCLARR data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, L.M.

1997-11-01

The Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) contains data on component failures with categorical and qualifying information such as component design, normal operating state, system application and safety grade information which is important to the development of risk-based component surveillance testing requirements. This report presents descriptions and results of analyses of valve component failure data and covariate information available in the document Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability Data Manual, Part 3: Hardware Component Failure Data (NUCLARR Data Manual). Although there are substantial records on valve performance, there are many categories of the corresponding descriptors and qualifying information for which specific values are missing. Consequently, this limits the data available for analysis of covariate effects. This report presents cross tabulations by different covariate categories and limited modeling of covariate effects for data subsets with substantive non-missing covariate information

Quantitative Approach to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Linear Accelerator Quality Assurance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Daniel, Jennifer C., E-mail: jennifer.odaniel@duke.edu; Yin, Fang-Fang

2017-05-01

Purpose: To determine clinic-specific linear accelerator quality assurance (QA) TG-142 test frequencies, to maximize physicist time efficiency and patient treatment quality. Methods and Materials: A novel quantitative approach to failure mode and effect analysis is proposed. Nine linear accelerator-years of QA records provided data on failure occurrence rates. The severity of test failure was modeled by introducing corresponding errors into head and neck intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment plans. The relative risk of daily linear accelerator QA was calculated as a function of frequency of test performance. Results: Although the failure severity was greatest for daily imaging QA (imaging vs treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning), the failure occurrence rate was greatest for output and laser testing. The composite ranking results suggest that performing output and lasers tests daily, imaging versus treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning tests weekly, and optical distance indicator and jaws versus light field tests biweekly would be acceptable for non-stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy linear accelerators. Conclusions: Failure mode and effect analysis is a useful tool to determine the relative importance of QA tests from TG-142. Because there are practical time limitations on how many QA tests can be performed, this analysis highlights which tests are the most important and suggests the frequency of testing based on each test's risk priority number.

Quantitative Approach to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Linear Accelerator Quality Assurance.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Daniel, Jennifer C; Yin, Fang-Fang

2017-05-01

To determine clinic-specific linear accelerator quality assurance (QA) TG-142 test frequencies, to maximize physicist time efficiency and patient treatment quality. A novel quantitative approach to failure mode and effect analysis is proposed. Nine linear accelerator-years of QA records provided data on failure occurrence rates. The severity of test failure was modeled by introducing corresponding errors into head and neck intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment plans. The relative risk of daily linear accelerator QA was calculated as a function of frequency of test performance. Although the failure severity was greatest for daily imaging QA (imaging vs treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning), the failure occurrence rate was greatest for output and laser testing. The composite ranking results suggest that performing output and lasers tests daily, imaging versus treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning tests weekly, and optical distance indicator and jaws versus light field tests biweekly would be acceptable for non-stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy linear accelerators. Failure mode and effect analysis is a useful tool to determine the relative importance of QA tests from TG-142. Because there are practical time limitations on how many QA tests can be performed, this analysis highlights which tests are the most important and suggests the frequency of testing based on each test's risk priority number. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic analysis of ''common mode failures''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easterling, R.G.

1978-01-01

Common mode failure is a topic of considerable interest in reliability and safety analyses of nuclear reactors. Common mode failures are often discussed in terms of examples: two systems fail simultaneously due to an external event such as an earthquake; two components in redundant channels fail because of a common manufacturing defect; two systems fail because a component common to both fails; the failure of one system increases the stress on other systems and they fail. The common thread running through these is a dependence of some sort--statistical or physical--among multiple failure events. However, the nature of the dependence is not the same in all these examples. An attempt is made to model situations, such as the above examples, which have been termed ''common mode failures.'' In doing so, it is found that standard probability concepts and terms, such as statistically dependent and independent events, and conditional and unconditional probabilities, suffice. Thus, it is proposed that the term ''common mode failures'' be dropped, at least from technical discussions of these problems. A corollary is that the complementary term, ''random failures,'' should also be dropped. The mathematical model presented may not cover all situations which have been termed ''common mode failures,'' but provides insight into the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the probabilities of these events

Statistical Analysis Of Failure Strength Of Material Using Weibull Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Entin Hartini; Mike Susmikanti; Antonius Sitompul

2008-01-01

In evaluation of ceramic and glass materials strength a statistical approach is necessary Strength of ceramic and glass depend on its measure and size distribution of flaws in these material. The distribution of strength for ductile material is narrow and close to a Gaussian distribution while strength of brittle materials as ceramic and glass following Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is an indicator of the failure of material strength resulting from a distribution of flaw size. In this paper, cumulative probability of material strength to failure probability, cumulative probability of failure versus fracture stress and cumulative probability of reliability of material were calculated. Statistical criteria calculation supporting strength analysis of Silicon Nitride material were done utilizing MATLAB. (author)

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

2001-12-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

Economic analysis of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.

2001-12-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

The economic failure of nuclear power in Britain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henney, A.

1990-01-01

Claims made about the economics of nuclear power have been misleading. The history and political framework within which nuclear power has developed in Britain are explained so that those claims can be understood. The main factors affecting the development of nuclear power in Britain have been military requirements, national pride, the hope of cheap electricity and concern about the security of fuel supplies. Variations in the official view of the economics of Magnox reactors are used to illustrate changes in the government attitude to nuclear power economics. Other factors - the 'oil crisis' of the 1970's the miners' strike, the accident at Three Mile Island and methods of accounting are all shown to influence this attitude. At the Hinkley Point C Inquiry the Central Electricity Generating Board conceded that nuclear power was not economic a position recognised by the government in the non-privatisation of nuclear power. (UK)

Failure analysis and modeling of a multicomputer system. M.S. Thesis

Science.gov (United States)

Subramani, Sujatha Srinivasan

1990-01-01

This thesis describes the results of an extensive measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a 7-machine DEC VaxCluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system error and failure characteristics, we develop reward models to analyze the impact of failures and errors on the system. The results show that, although 98 percent of errors in the shared resources recover, they result in 48 percent of all system failures. The analysis of rewards shows that the expected reward rate for the VaxCluster decreases to 0.5 in 100 days for a 3 out of 7 model, which is well over a 100 times that for a 7-out-of-7 model. A comparison of the reward rates for a range of k-out-of-n models indicates that the maximum increase in reward rate (0.25) occurs in going from the 6-out-of-7 model to the 5-out-of-7 model. The analysis also shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.2 vs. 0.91 for network errors). The large loss in reward rate for software errors is due to the fact that a large proportion (94 percent) of software errors lead to failure. In comparison, the high reward rate for network errors is due to fast recovery from a majority of these errors (median recovery duration is 0 seconds).

Failure characteristics analysis and fault diagnosis for liquid rocket engines

CERN Document Server

Zhang, Wei

2016-01-01

This book concentrates on the subject of health monitoring technology of Liquid Rocket Engine (LRE), including its failure analysis, fault diagnosis and fault prediction. Since no similar issue has been published, the failure pattern and mechanism analysis of the LRE from the system stage are of particular interest to the readers. Furthermore, application cases used to validate the efficacy of the fault diagnosis and prediction methods of the LRE are different from the others. The readers can learn the system stage modeling, analyzing and testing methods of the LRE system as well as corresponding fault diagnosis and prediction methods. This book will benefit researchers and students who are pursuing aerospace technology, fault detection, diagnostics and corresponding applications.

Advanced approaches to failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Vykydal

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The present paper explores advanced approaches to the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis which take into account the costs associated with occurrence of failures during the manufacture of a product. Different approaches are demonstrated using an example FMEA application to production of drawn wire. Their purpose is to determine risk levels, while taking account of the above-mentioned costs. Finally, the resulting priority levels are compared for developing actions mitigating the risks.

Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

Science.gov (United States)

Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

2017-03-01

Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Xie, Linyin

2010-01-01

This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, K A

1984-01-01

A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.

The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

2010-01-01

The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

Economic analysis of fusion breeders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.

1985-01-01

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

1988-01-01

This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

Analysis approach for common cause failure on non-safety digital control system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

The effects of common cause failure (CCF) on safety digital instrumentation and control (I and C) system had been considered in defense in depth and diversity coping analysis with safety analysis method. For the non-safety system, single failure had been considered for safety analysis. IEEE Std. 603-1991, Clause 5.6.3.1(2), 'Isolation' states that no credible failure on the non-safety side of an isolation device shall prevent any portion of a safety system from meeting its minimum performance requirements during and following any design basis event requiring that safety function. The software CCF is one of the credible failure on the non-safety side. In advanced digital I and C system, same hardware component is used for different control system and the defect in manufacture or common external event can generate CCF. Moreover, the non-safety I and C system uses complex software for its various function and software quality assurance for the development process is less severe than safety software for the cost effective design. Therefore the potential defects in software cannot be ignored and the effect of software CCF on non-safety I and C system is needed to be evaluated. This paper proposes the general process and considerations for the analysis of CCF on non-safety I and C system.

Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of early containment failure at severe accident of nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Su Won

2011-02-15

The severe accident has inherently significant uncertainty due to wide range of conditions and performing experiments, validation and practical application are extremely difficult because of its high temperature and pressure. Although internal and external researches were put into practice, the reference used in Korean nuclear plants were foreign data of 1980s and safety analysis as the probabilistic safety assessment has not applied the newest methodology. Also, it is applied to containment pressure formed into point value as results of thermal hydraulic analysis to identify the probability of containment failure in level 2 PSA. In this paper, the uncertainty analysis methods for phenomena of severe accident influencing early containment failure were developed, the uncertainty analysis that apply Korean nuclear plants using the MELCOR code was performed and it is a point of view to present the distribution of containment pressure as a result of uncertainty analysis. Because early containment failure is important factor of Large Early Release Frequency(LERF) that is used as representative criteria of decision-making in nuclear power plants, it was selected in this paper among various modes of containment failure. Important phenomena of early containment failure at severe accident based on previous researches were comprehended and methodology of 7th steps to evaluate uncertainty was developed. The MELCOR input for analysis of the severe accident reflected natural circulation flow was developed and the accident scenario for station black out that was representative initial event of early containment failure was determined. By reviewing the internal model and correlation for MELCOR model relevant important phenomena of early containment failure, the uncertainty factors which could affect on the uncertainty were founded and the major factors were finally identified through the sensitivity analysis. In order to determine total number of MELCOR calculations which can

Sensitivity analysis of fuel pin failure performance under slow-ramp type transient overpower condition by using a fuel performance analysis code FEMAXI-FBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsuboi, Yasushi; Ninokata, Hisashi; Endo, Hiroshi; Ishizu, Tomoko; Tatewaki, Isao; Saito, Hiroaki

2012-01-01

The FEMAXI-FBR is a fuel performance analysis code and has been developed as one module of core disruptive evaluation system, the ASTERIA-FBR. The FEMAXI-FBR has reproduced the failure pin behavior during slow transient overpower. The axial location of pin failure affects the power and reactivity behavior during core disruptive accident, and failure model of which pin failure occurs at upper part of pin is used by reflecting the results of the CABRI-2 test. By using the FEMAXI-FBR, sensitivity analysis of uncertainty of design parameters such as irradiation conditions and fuel fabrication tolerances was performed to clarify the effect on axial location of pin failure during slow transient overpower. The sensitivity analysis showed that the uncertainty of design parameters does not affect the failure location. It suggests that the failure model with which locations of failure occur at upper part of pin can be adopted for core disruptive calculation by taking into consideration of design uncertainties. (author)

Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with functional dependence in one of phases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

2012-01-01

This paper proposes an algorithm for the reliability analysis of non-repairable phased-mission systems (PMS) subject to competing failure propagation and isolation effects. A failure originating from a system component which causes extensive damage to other system components is a propagated failure. When the propagated failure affects all the system components, causing the entire system failure, a propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is said to occur. However, the failure propagation can be isolated in systems subject to functional dependence (FDEP) behavior, where the failure of a component (referred to as trigger component) causes some other components (referred to as dependent components) to become inaccessible or unusable (isolated from the system), and thus further failures from these dependent components have no effect on the system failure behavior. On the other hand, if any PFGE from dependent components occurs before the trigger failure, the failure propagation effect takes place, causing the overall system failure. In summary, there are two distinct consequences of a PFGE due to the competition between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects in the time domain. Existing works on such competing failures focus only on single-phase systems. However, many real-world systems are phased-mission systems (PMS), which involve multiple, consecutive and non-overlapping phases of operations or tasks. Consideration of competing failures for PMS is a challenging and difficult task because PMS exhibit dynamics in the system configuration and component behavior as well as statistical dependencies across phases for a given component. This paper proposes a combinatorial method to address the competing failure effects in the reliability analysis of binary non-repairable PMS. The proposed method is verified using a Markov-based method through a numerical example. Different from the Markov-based approach that is limited to exponential distribution, the

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Mu-Young; Cho, Seungyon; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won; Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahn, Mu-Young, E-mail: myahn74@nfri.re.kr [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.

Heart Failure in North America

OpenAIRE

Blair, John E. A; Huffman, Mark; Shah, Sanjiv J

2013-01-01

Heart failure is a major health problem that affects patients and healthcare systems worldwide. Within the continent of North America, differences in economic development, genetic susceptibility, cultural practices, and trends in risk factors and treatment all contribute to both inter-continental and within-continent differences in heart failure. The United States and Canada represent industrialized countries with similar culture, geography, and advanced economies and infrastructure. During t...

An analysis of human maintenance failures of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

In the report, a study of faults caused by maintenance activities is presented. The objective of the study was to draw conclusions on the unplanned effects of maintenance on nuclear power plant safety and system availability. More than 4400 maintenance history reports from the years 1992-1994 of Olkiluoto BWR nuclear power plant (NPP) were analysed together with the maintenance personnel. The human action induced faults were classified, e.g., according to their multiplicity and effects. This paper presents and discusses the results of a statistical analysis of the data. Instrumentation and electrical components appeared to be especially prone to human failures. Many human failures were found in safety related systems. Several failures also remained latent from outages to power operation. However, the safety significance of failures was generally small. Modifications were an important source of multiple human failures. Plant maintenance data is a good source of human reliability data and it should be used more in the future. (orig.)

Standard guide for corrosion-related failure analysis

CERN Document Server

American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

2000-01-01

1.1 This guide covers key issues to be considered when examining metallic failures when corrosion is suspected as either a major or minor causative factor. 1.2 Corrosion-related failures could include one or more of the following: change in surface appearance (for example, tarnish, rust, color change), pin hole leak, catastrophic structural failure (for example, collapse, explosive rupture, implosive rupture, cracking), weld failure, loss of electrical continuity, and loss of functionality (for example, seizure, galling, spalling, swelling). 1.3 Issues covered include overall failure site conditions, operating conditions at the time of failure, history of equipment and its operation, corrosion product sampling, environmental sampling, metallurgical and electrochemical factors, morphology (mode) or failure, and by considering the preceding, deducing the cause(s) of corrosion failure. This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibili...

Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)

OpenAIRE

OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko

2008-01-01

In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...

Local buckling failure analysis of high-strength pipelines

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yan Li; Jian Shuai; Zhong-Li Jin; Ya-Tong Zhao; Kui Xu

2017-01-01

Pipelines in geological disaster regions typically suffer the risk of local buckling failure because of slender structure and complex load.This paper is meant to reveal the local buckling behavior of buried pipelines with a large diameter and high strength,which are under different conditions,including pure bending and bending combined with internal pressure.Finite element analysis was built according to previous data to study local buckling behavior of pressurized and unpressurized pipes under bending conditions and their differences in local buckling failure modes.In parametric analysis,a series of parameters,including pipe geometrical dimension,pipe material properties and internal pressure,were selected to study their influences on the critical bending moment,critical compressive stress and critical compressive strain of pipes.Especially the hardening exponent of pipe material was introduced to the parameter analysis by using the Ramberg-Osgood constitutive model.Results showed that geometrical dimensions,material and internal pressure can exert similar effects on the critical bending moment and critical compressive stress,which have different,even reverse effects on the critical compressive strain.Based on these analyses,more accurate design models of critical bending moment and critical compressive stress have been proposed for high-strength pipelines under bending conditions,which provide theoretical methods for highstrength pipeline engineering.

Recognition and Analysis of Corrosion Failure Mechanisms

OpenAIRE

Steven Suess

2006-01-01

Corrosion has a vast impact on the global and domestic economy, and currently incurs losses of nearly $300 billion annually to the U.S. economy alone. Because of the huge impact of corrosion, it is imperative to have a systematic approach to recognizing and mitigating corrosion problems as soon as possible after they become apparent. A proper failure analysis includes collection of pertinent background data and service history, followed by visual inspection, photographic documentation, materi...

A meta-analysis of the effects of β-adrenergic blockers in chronic heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaojian; Shen, Chengwu; Zhai, Shujun; Liu, Yukun; Yue, Wen-Wei; Han, Li

2016-10-01

Adrenergic β-blockers are drugs that bind to, but do not activate β-adrenergic receptors. Instead they block the actions of β-adrenergic agonists and are used for the treatment of various diseases such as cardiac arrhythmias, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, hypertension, headache, migraines, stress, anxiety, prostate cancer, and heart failure. Several meta-analysis studies have shown that β-blockers improve the heart function and reduce the risks of cardiovascular events, rate of mortality, and sudden death through chronic heart failure (CHF) of patients. The present study identified results from recent meta-analyses of β-adrenergic blockers and their usefulness in CHF. Databases including Medline/Embase/Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and PubMed were searched for the periods May, 1985 to March, 2011 and June, 2013 to August, 2015, and a number of studies identified. Results of those studies showed that use of β-blockers was associated with decreased sudden cardiac death in patients with heart failure. However, contradictory results have also been reported. The present meta-analysis aimed to determine the efficacy of β-blockers on mortality and morbidity in patients with heart failure. The results showed that mortality was significantly reduced by β-blocker treatment prior to the surgery of heart failure patients. The results from the meta-analysis studies showed that β-blocker treatment in heart failure patients correlated with a significant decrease in long-term mortality, even in patients that meet one or more exclusion criteria of the MERIT-HF study. In summary, the findings of the current meta-analysis revealed beneficial effects different β-blockers have on patients with heart failure or related heart disease.

Analysis of risk factors for cluster behavior of dental implant failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrcanovic, Bruno Ramos; Kisch, Jenö; Albrektsson, Tomas; Wennerberg, Ann

2017-08-01

Some studies indicated that implant failures are commonly concentrated in few patients. To identify and analyze cluster behavior of dental implant failures among subjects of a retrospective study. This retrospective study included patients receiving at least three implants only. Patients presenting at least three implant failures were classified as presenting a cluster behavior. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models and generalized estimating equations analysis evaluated the effect of explanatory variables on the cluster behavior. There were 1406 patients with three or more implants (8337 implants, 592 failures). Sixty-seven (4.77%) patients presented cluster behavior, with 56.8% of all implant failures. The intake of antidepressants and bruxism were identified as potential negative factors exerting a statistically significant influence on a cluster behavior at the patient-level. The negative factors at the implant-level were turned implants, short implants, poor bone quality, age of the patient, the intake of medicaments to reduce the acid gastric production, smoking, and bruxism. A cluster pattern among patients with implant failure is highly probable. Factors of interest as predictors for implant failures could be a number of systemic and local factors, although a direct causal relationship cannot be ascertained. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-06-01

la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...

Corrosion failure analysis as related to prevention of corrosion failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suss, H.

1977-10-01

The factors and conditions which have contributed to many of the corrosion related service failures are discussed based on a review of actual case histories. The anti-corrosion devices which developed as a result of these failure analyses are reviewed, and the method which must be adopted and used to take advantage of the available corrosion prevention techniques is discussed

Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro

2005-03-01

Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are

Risk assessment of the emergency processes: Healthcare failure mode and effect analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Taleghani, Yasamin Molavi; Rezaei, Fatemeh; Sheikhbardsiri, Hojat

2016-01-01

Ensuring about the patient's safety is the first vital step in improving the quality of care and the emergency ward is known as a high-risk area in treatment health care. The present study was conducted to evaluate the selected risk processes of emergency surgery department of a treatment-educational Qaem center in Mashhad by using analysis method of the conditions and failure effects in health care. In this study, in combination (qualitative action research and quantitative cross-sectional), failure modes and effects of 5 high-risk procedures of the emergency surgery department were identified and analyzed according to Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (HFMEA). To classify the failure modes from the "nursing errors in clinical management model (NECM)", the classification of the effective causes of error from "Eindhoven model" and determination of the strategies to improve from the "theory of solving problem by an inventive method" were used. To analyze the quantitative data of descriptive statistics (total points) and to analyze the qualitative data, content analysis and agreement of comments of the members were used. In 5 selected processes by "voting method using rating", 23 steps, 61 sub-processes and 217 potential failure modes were identified by HFMEA. 25 (11.5%) failure modes as the high risk errors were detected and transferred to the decision tree. The most and the least failure modes were placed in the categories of care errors (54.7%) and knowledge and skill (9.5%), respectively. Also, 29.4% of preventive measures were in the category of human resource management strategy. "Revision and re-engineering of processes", "continuous monitoring of the works", "preparation and revision of operating procedures and policies", "developing the criteria for evaluating the performance of the personnel", "designing a suitable educational content for needs of employee", "training patients", "reducing the workload and power shortage", "improving team

Análisis del fracaso empresarial por sectores: factores diferenciadores = Cross-industry analysis of business failure: differential factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Jesús Mures Quintana

2012-12-01

Full Text Available El objetivo de este trabajo se centra en el análisis del fracaso empresarial por sectores, a fin de identificar los factores explicativos y predictivos de este fenómeno que son diferentes en tres de los principales sectores que se distinguen en toda economía: industria, construcción y servicios. Para cada uno de estos sectores, seguimos el mismo procedimiento. En primer lugar, aplicamos un análisis de componentes principales con el que identificamos los factores explicativos del fracaso empresarial en los tres sectores. A continuación, consideramos dichos factores como variables independientes en un análisis discriminante, que aplicamos para predecir el fracaso de una muestra de empresas, utilizando no sólo información financiera en forma de ratios, sino también otras variables no financieras relativas a las empresas, así como información externa a las mismas que refleja las condiciones macroeconómicas bajo las que desarrollan su actividad. This paper focuses on a cross-industry analysis of business failure, in order to identify the explanatory and predictor factors of this event that are different in three of the main industries in every economy: manufacturing, building and service. For each one of these industries, the same procedure is followed. First, a principal components analysis is applied in order to identify the explanatory factors of business failure in the three industries. Next, these factors are considered as independent variables in a discriminant analysis, so as to predict the firms’ failure, using not only financial information expressed by ratios, but also other non-financial variables related to the firms, as well as external information that reflects macroeconomic conditions under which they develop their activity.

Development of severe accident analysis code - Development of a finite element code for lower head failure analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huh, Hoon; Lee, Choong Ho; Choi, Tae Hoon; Kim, Hyun Sup; Kim, Se Ho; Kang, Woo Jong; Seo, Chong Kwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-08-01

The study concerns the development of analysis models and computer codes for lower head failure analysis when a severe accident occurs in a nuclear reactor system. Although the lower head failure modes consists of several failure modes, the study this year was focused on the global rupture with the collapse pressure and mode by limit analysis and elastic deformation. The behavior of molten core causes elevation of temperature in the reactor vessel wall and deterioration of load-carrying capacity of a reactor vessel. The behavior of molten core and the heat transfer modes were, therefore, postulated in several types and the temperature distributions according to the assumed heat flux modes were calculated. The collapse pressure of a nuclear reactor lower head decreases rapidly with elevation of temperature as time passes. The calculation shows the safety of a nuclear reactor is enhanced with the lager collapse pressure when the hot spot is located far from the pole. 42 refs., 2 tabs., 31 figs. (author)

Analysis for Involvement of TPP Operating in Accordance with Heating Schedule to Passing Through Failures of Electric Load Schedules

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. I. Nazarov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes technical and economic evaluation of various methods pertaining to passing through failures of electric load at TPP which is operating in accordance with heating schedule.

Analysis of Failure Causes and the Criticality Degree of Elements of Motor Vehicle’s Drum Brakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Ćatić

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The introduction of the paper gives the basic concepts, historical development of methods of Fault Tree Analysis - FTA and Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis - FMECA for analysis of the reliability and safety of technical systems and importance of applying this method is highlighted. Failure analysis is particularly important for systems whose failures lead to the endangerment of people safety, such as, for example, the braking system of motor vehicles. For the failure analysis of the considered device, it is necessary to know the structure, functioning, working conditions and all factors that have a greater or less influence on its reliability. By formation of the fault tree of drum brakes in braking systems of commercial vehicles, it was established a causal relation between the different events that lead to a reduction in performance or complete failure of the braking system. Based on data from exploitation, using FMECA methods, determination of the criticality degree of drum brake’s elements on the reliable and safe operation of the braking system is performed.

[Examination of safety improvement by failure record analysis that uses reliability engineering].

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Kyoichi; Sato, Hisaya; Abe, Yoshihisa; Ishimori, Yoshiyuki; Hirano, Hiroshi; Higashimura, Kyoji; Amauchi, Hiroshi; Yanakita, Takashi; Kikuchi, Kei; Nakazawa, Yasuo

2010-08-20

How the maintenance checks of the medical treatment system, including start of work check and the ending check, was effective for preventive maintenance and the safety improvement was verified. In this research, date on the failure of devices in multiple facilities was collected, and the data of the trouble repair record was analyzed by the technique of reliability engineering. An analysis of data on the system (8 general systems, 6 Angio systems, 11 CT systems, 8 MRI systems, 8 RI systems, and the radiation therapy system 9) used in eight hospitals was performed. The data collection period assumed nine months from April to December 2008. Seven items were analyzed. (1) Mean time between failures (MTBF) (2) Mean time to repair (MTTR) (3) Mean down time (MDT) (4) Number found by check in morning (5) Failure generation time according to modality. The classification of the breakdowns per device, the incidence, and the tendency could be understood by introducing reliability engineering. Analysis, evaluation, and feedback on the failure generation history are useful to keep downtime to a minimum and to ensure safety.

Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

1983-07-01

A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinari, Frank D.

1979-01-01

Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suparna Wijaya

2017-03-01

Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

A classification system for pressure vessel shell failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrop, L.P.

1989-01-01

A system for classifying failures of the shells of pressure vessels is presented. The classification system is based on the way a failure physically manifests itself and not on imputed economic or safety significance. It is believed the described way of classifying the failures is useful for transferring information from one situation to another. In assigning names to types of failure, the intention has been to adopt explicit definitions rather than supposed colloquial usage. (author)

Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C

2010-02-01

The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.

Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

1996-01-01

This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

Analysis of failure and maintenance experiences of motor operated valves in a Finnish nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Laakso, K.

1992-01-01

Operating experiences from 1981 up to 1989 of totally 104 motor operated closing valves (MOV) in different safety systems at TVO I and II nuclear power units were analysed in a systematic way. The qualitative methods used were failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and maintenance effects and criticality analysis (MECA). The failure descriptions were obtained from power plant's computerized failure reporting system. The reported 181 failure events were reanalysed and sorted according to specific classifications developed for the MOV function. Filled FMEA and MECA sheets on individual valves were stored in a microcomputer data base for further analyses. Analyses were performed for the failed mechanical and electrical valve parts, ways of detection of failure modes, failure effects, and repair and unavailability times

Application of failure mode and effect analysis in an assisted reproduction technology laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Intra, Giulia; Alteri, Alessandra; Corti, Laura; Rabellotti, Elisa; Papaleo, Enrico; Restelli, Liliana; Biondo, Stefania; Garancini, Maria Paola; Candiani, Massimo; Viganò, Paola

2016-08-01

Assisted reproduction technology laboratories have a very high degree of complexity. Mismatches of gametes or embryos can occur, with catastrophic consequences for patients. To minimize the risk of error, a multi-institutional working group applied failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to each critical activity/step as a method of risk assessment. This analysis led to the identification of the potential failure modes, together with their causes and effects, using the risk priority number (RPN) scoring system. In total, 11 individual steps and 68 different potential failure modes were identified. The highest ranked failure modes, with an RPN score of 25, encompassed 17 failures and pertained to "patient mismatch" and "biological sample mismatch". The maximum reduction in risk, with RPN reduced from 25 to 5, was mostly related to the introduction of witnessing. The critical failure modes in sample processing were improved by 50% in the RPN by focusing on staff training. Three indicators of FMEA success, based on technical skill, competence and traceability, have been evaluated after FMEA implementation. Witnessing by a second human operator should be introduced in the laboratory to avoid sample mix-ups. These findings confirm that FMEA can effectively reduce errors in assisted reproduction technology laboratories. Copyright © 2016 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of fast reactor cladding failure for hypothetical accident transient analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kramer, J.M.; DiMelfi, R.J.; Hughes, T.H.; Deitrich, L.W.

1979-01-01

An analysis is made of burst experiments performed on neutron irradiated cladding tubes. This is done by employing a generalized Voce equation to describe the mechanical deformation of type 316 stainless steel, combined with an empirical creep crack growth law, each modified to account for the effects of irradiation matrix hardening, and irradiation induced grain boundary embrittlement, respectively. The results of this analysis indicate that for large initial hoop stress, failure occurs at relatively low temperature and is controlled by the onset of plastic instability. The increase in failure temperature of irradiated material, in this low temperature region, is due to irradiation strengthening. Failure in the case of relatively small initial hoop stress occurs at high temperature where the Voce equation reduces to a power law creep formula. The ductility of irradiated material, in this high temperature region, is adequately described through the use of an empirical intergranular crack growth law used in conjunction with the creep law. The effect of neutron irradiation is to reduce the activation energy for crack propagation from the value for creep to some lower value correlated to independent Dorn rupture parameter measurements. The result is a predicted reduced ductility which translates into a reduction in failure temperature at a given hoop stress value for irradiated material. (orig.)

Elastic-plastic failure analysis of pressure burst tests of thin toroidal shells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D.P.; Holliday, J.E.; Larson, L.D.

1998-07-01

This paper provides a comparison between test and analysis results for bursting of thin toroidal shells. Testing was done by pressurizing two toroidal shells until failure by bursting. An analytical criterion for bursting is developed based on good agreement between structural instability predicted by large strain-large displacement elastic-plastic finite element analysis and observed burst pressure obtained from test. The failures were characterized by loss of local stability of the membrane section of the shells consistent with the predictions from the finite element analysis. Good agreement between measured and predicted burst pressure suggests that incipient structural instability as calculated by an elastic-plastic finite element analysis is a reasonable way to calculate the bursting pressure of thin membrane structures

Failure analysis of carbide fuels under transient overpower (TOP) conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, D.H.

1980-06-01

The failure of carbide fuels in the Fast Test Reactor (FTR) under Transient Overpower (TOP) conditions has been examined. The Beginning-of-Cycle Four (BOC-4) all-oxide base case, at $.50/sec ramp rate was selected as the reference case. A coupling between the advanced fuel performance code UNCLE-T and HCDA Code MELT-IIIA was necessary for the analysis. UNCLE-T was used to determine cladding failure and fuel preconditioning which served as initial conditions for MELT-III calculations. MELT-IIIA determined the time of molten fuel ejection from fuel pin

Failure analysis of boiler tubes in lakhra coal power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, A.; Baluch, M.M.; Ali, A.

2010-01-01

Present work deals with the failure analysis of a boiler tube in Lakhra fluidized bed combustion power station. Initially, visual inspection technique was adopted to analyse the fractured surface. Detailed microstructural investigations of the busted boiler tube were carried out using light optical microscope and scanning electron microscope. The hardness tests were also performed. A 50 percent decrease in hardness of intact portion of the tube material and from area adjacent to failure was measured, which was found to be in good agreement with the wall thicknesses measured of the busted boiler tube i.e. 4 mm and 2 mm from unaffected portion and ruptured area respectively. It was concluded that the major cause of failure of boiler tube is erosion of material which occurs due the coal particles strike at the surface of the tube material. Since the temperature of boiler is not maintained uniformly. The variations in boiler temperature can also affect the material and could be another reason for the failure of the tube. (author)

[Retrieval and failure analysis of surgical implants in Brazil: the need for proper regulation].

Science.gov (United States)

Azevedo, Cesar R de Farias; Hippert, Eduardo

2002-01-01

This paper summarizes several cases of metallurgical failure analysis of surgical implants conducted at the Laboratory of Failure Analysis, Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT), in Brazil. Failures with two stainless steel femoral compression plates, one stainless steel femoral nail plate, one Ti-6Al-4V alloy maxillary reconstruction plate, and five Nitinol wires were investigated. The results showed that the implants were not in accordance with ISO standards and presented evidence of corrosion-assisted fracture. Furthermore, some of the implants presented manufacturing/processing defects which also contributed to their premature failure. Implantation of materials that are not biocompatible may cause several types of adverse effects in the human body and lead to premature implant failure. A review of prevailing health legislation is needed in Brazil, along with the adoption of regulatory mechanisms to assure the quality of surgical implants on the market, providing for compulsory procedures in the reporting and investigation of surgical implants which have failed in service.

Economic burden of heart failure: investigating outpatient and inpatient costs in Abeokuta, Southwest Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogah, Okechukwu S; Stewart, Simon; Onwujekwe, Obinna E; Falase, Ayodele O; Adebayo, Saheed O; Olunuga, Taiwo; Sliwa, Karen

2014-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a deadly, disabling and often costly syndrome world-wide. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data describing its economic impact in sub Saharan Africa; a region in which the number of relatively younger cases will inevitably rise. Heath economic data were extracted from a prospective HF registry in a tertiary hospital situated in Abeokuta, southwest Nigeria. Outpatient and inpatient costs were computed from a representative cohort of 239 HF cases including personnel, diagnostic and treatment resources used for their management over a 12-month period. Indirect costs were also calculated. The annual cost per person was then calculated. Mean age of the cohort was 58.0 ± 15.1 years and 53.1% were men. The total computed cost of care of HF in Abeokuta was 76, 288,845 Nigerian Naira (US$508, 595) translating to 319,200 Naira (US$2,128 US Dollars) per patient per year. The total cost of in-patient care (46% of total health care expenditure) was estimated as 34,996,477 Naira (about 301,230 US dollars). This comprised of 17,899,977 Naira- 50.9% ($US114,600) and 17,806,500 naira -49.1%($US118,710) for direct and in-direct costs respectively. Out-patient cost was estimated as 41,292,368 Naira ($US 275,282). The relatively high cost of outpatient care was largely due to cost of transportation for monthly follow up visits. Payments were mostly made through out-of-pocket spending. The economic burden of HF in Nigeria is particularly high considering, the relatively young age of affected cases, a minimum wage of 18,000 Naira ($US120) per month and considerable component of out-of-pocket spending for those affected. Health reforms designed to mitigate the individual to societal burden imposed by the syndrome are required.

Economic burden of heart failure: investigating outpatient and inpatient costs in Abeokuta, Southwest Nigeria.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okechukwu S Ogah

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF is a deadly, disabling and often costly syndrome world-wide. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data describing its economic impact in sub Saharan Africa; a region in which the number of relatively younger cases will inevitably rise. METHODS: Heath economic data were extracted from a prospective HF registry in a tertiary hospital situated in Abeokuta, southwest Nigeria. Outpatient and inpatient costs were computed from a representative cohort of 239 HF cases including personnel, diagnostic and treatment resources used for their management over a 12-month period. Indirect costs were also calculated. The annual cost per person was then calculated. RESULTS: Mean age of the cohort was 58.0 ± 15.1 years and 53.1% were men. The total computed cost of care of HF in Abeokuta was 76, 288,845 Nigerian Naira (US$508, 595 translating to 319,200 Naira (US$2,128 US Dollars per patient per year. The total cost of in-patient care (46% of total health care expenditure was estimated as 34,996,477 Naira (about 301,230 US dollars. This comprised of 17,899,977 Naira- 50.9% ($US114,600 and 17,806,500 naira -49.1%($US118,710 for direct and in-direct costs respectively. Out-patient cost was estimated as 41,292,368 Naira ($US 275,282. The relatively high cost of outpatient care was largely due to cost of transportation for monthly follow up visits. Payments were mostly made through out-of-pocket spending. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of HF in Nigeria is particularly high considering, the relatively young age of affected cases, a minimum wage of 18,000 Naira ($US120 per month and considerable component of out-of-pocket spending for those affected. Health reforms designed to mitigate the individual to societal burden imposed by the syndrome are required.

Emergy-Based Regional Socio-Economic Metabolism Analysis: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decomposition Analysis

OpenAIRE

Zilong Zhang; Xingpeng Chen; Peter Heck

2014-01-01

Integrated analysis on socio-economic metabolism could provide a basis for understanding and optimizing regional sustainability. The paper conducted socio-economic metabolism analysis by means of the emergy accounting method coupled with data envelopment analysis and decomposition analysis techniques to assess the sustainability of Qingyang city and its eight sub-region system, as well as to identify the major driving factors of performance change during 2000–2007, to serve as the basis for f...

Economic and organizational determinants of HMO mergers and failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Feldman, R; Wholey, D; Christianson, J

1996-01-01

This study analyzed data from all operational health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the United States from 1986 through 1993. Eighty HMOs disappeared through mergers and 149 failed over that period. We estimated a multinomial logit model to predict whether an HMO would merge and survive, merge and disappear, or fail, relative to the probability of no event. We found that enrollment and profitability play a critical role in explaining HMO mergers and failures: large and profitable HMOs were more likely to merge and survive, but less likely to merge and disappear or fail. These results explain why HMO merger and failure rates fell after 1988, as most surviving HMOs became larger and more profitable. Among several market-area variables in the model, state anti-takeover regulations had a negative impact on mergers. Mergers were more likely in markets with more competing HMOs, but the overall market penetration of HMOs had no effect on mergers. This result may have important implications for the current debate over the future of the competitive health care strategy. If public policy successfully stimulates the development of large numbers of new HMOs, another wave of mergers and failures is likely to occur. But it appears that growth in overall HMO penetration will not lead inevitably to increased market concentration.

Failure mode and effects analysis outputs: are they valid?

Science.gov (United States)

Shebl, Nada Atef; Franklin, Bryony Dean; Barber, Nick

2012-06-10

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a prospective risk assessment tool that has been widely used within the aerospace and automotive industries and has been utilised within healthcare since the early 1990s. The aim of this study was to explore the validity of FMEA outputs within a hospital setting in the United Kingdom. Two multidisciplinary teams each conducted an FMEA for the use of vancomycin and gentamicin. Four different validity tests were conducted: Face validity: by comparing the FMEA participants' mapped processes with observational work. Content validity: by presenting the FMEA findings to other healthcare professionals. Criterion validity: by comparing the FMEA findings with data reported on the trust's incident report database. Construct validity: by exploring the relevant mathematical theories involved in calculating the FMEA risk priority number. Face validity was positive as the researcher documented the same processes of care as mapped by the FMEA participants. However, other healthcare professionals identified potential failures missed by the FMEA teams. Furthermore, the FMEA groups failed to include failures related to omitted doses; yet these were the failures most commonly reported in the trust's incident database. Calculating the RPN by multiplying severity, probability and detectability scores was deemed invalid because it is based on calculations that breach the mathematical properties of the scales used. There are significant methodological challenges in validating FMEA. It is a useful tool to aid multidisciplinary groups in mapping and understanding a process of care; however, the results of our study cast doubt on its validity. FMEA teams are likely to need different sources of information, besides their personal experience and knowledge, to identify potential failures. As for FMEA's methodology for scoring failures, there were discrepancies between the teams' estimates and similar incidents reported on the trust's incident

Structures for common-cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, J.K.

1981-01-01

Common-cause failure methodology and terminology have been reviewed and structured to provide a systematical basis for addressing and developing models and methods for quantification. The structure is based on (1) a specific set of definitions, (2) categories based on the way faults are attributable to a common cause, and (3) classes based on the time of entry and the time of elimination of the faults. The failure events are then characterized by their likelihood or frequency and the average residence time. The structure provides a basis for selecting computational models, collecting and evaluating data and assessing the importance of various failure types, and for developing effective defences against common-cause failure. The relationships of this and several other structures are described

Failures in combined knowledge and material supply chains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Christian

2005-01-01

by configuration by project. In such a setting creating value for the customers and the enterprises becomes dependent of the ability to organise and coordinate in the supply chains. That the configuration is not always successful can be demonstrated by studying the emergence of failures occurring in the supply......-month observation period. These were compiled and analysed. The economic consequences are calculated to be 8% of the production costs. The analysis of relations in the supply chain both shows relations to materials and knowledge chains and their interaction. Most of the failures were generated in the knowledge...... stream and then occasionally transfer into the material stream. The paper proposes initiatives to strengthen partnerships in supply chains and especially at engineer to order production. The contradiction between the permanent enterprise organisation potentially capable of handling purchasing...

Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-12-01

This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY OF NONRECTORABLE REDUNDANT POWER SYSTEMS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT COMMON FAILURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Anischenko

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Reliability Analysis of nonrestorable redundant power Systems of industrial plants and other consumers of electric energy was carried out. The main attention was paid to numbers failures influence, caused by failures of all elements of System due to one general reason. Noted the main possible reasons of common failures formation. Two main indicators of reliability of non-restorable systems are considered: average time of no-failure operation and mean probability of no-failure operation. Modeling of failures were carried out by mean of division of investigated system into two in-series connected subsystems, one of them indicated independent failures, but the other indicated common failures. Due to joined modeling of single and common failures resulting intensity of failures is the amount incompatible components: intensity statistically independent failures and intensity of common failures of elements and system in total.It is shown the influence of common failures of elements on average time of no-failure operation of system. There is built the scale of preference of systems according to criterion of  average time maximum of no-failure operation, depending on portion of common failures. It is noticed that such common failures don’t influence on the scale of preference, but  change intervals of time, determining the moments of systems failures and excepting them from the number of comparators. There were discussed two problems  of conditionally optimization of  systems’  reservation choice, taking into account their reliability and cost. The first problem is solved due to criterion of minimum cost of system providing mean probability of no-failure operation, the second problem is solved due to criterion of maximum of mean probability of no-failure operation with cost limitation of system.

Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2002-09-01

In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

2002-01-01

In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

Safety Management in an Oil Company through Failure Mode Effects and Critical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benedictus Rahardjo

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to apply Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA to improve the safety of a production system, specifically the production process of an oil company. Since food processing is a worldwide issue and self-management of a food company is more important than relying on government regulations, therefore this study focused on that matter. The initial step of this study is to identify and analyze the criticality of the potential failure modes of the production process. Furthermore, take corrective action to minimize the probability of repeating the same failure mode, followed by a re-analysis of its criticality. The results of corrective actions were compared with those before improvement conditions by testing the significance of the difference using two sample t-test. The final measured result is the Criticality Priority Number (CPN, which refers to the severity category of the failure mode and the probability of occurrence of the same failure mode. The recommended actions proposed by the FMECA significantly reduce the CPN compared with the value before improvement, with increases of 38.46% for the palm olein case study.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2010-06-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-08-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-01-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with 'generic' component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

STAN IVAN F.E.

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.

Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.

1979-03-01

This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

Preliminary Analysis of the Common Cause Failure Events for Domestic Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Daeil; Han, Sanghoon

2007-01-01

It is known that the common cause failure (CCF) events have a great effect on the safety and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) results of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, the domestic studies have been mainly focused on the analysis method and modeling of CCF events. Thus, the analysis of the CCF events for domestic NPPs were performed to establish a domestic database for the CCF events and to deliver them to the operation office of the international common cause failure data exchange (ICDE) project. This paper presents the analysis results of the CCF events for domestic nuclear power plants

The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.

2017-01-01

In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.

Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.O. Poplavskiy

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

A model-based prognostic approach to predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwon, Dae Il; Yoon, Jeong Ah [Dept. of System Design and Control Engineering. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The reliability of electronic assemblies is largely affected by the health of interconnects, such as solder joints, which provide mechanical, electrical and thermal connections between circuit components. During field lifecycle conditions, interconnects are often subjected to a DC open circuit, one of the most common interconnect failure modes, due to cracking. An interconnect damaged by cracking is sometimes extremely hard to detect when it is a part of a daisy-chain structure, neighboring with other healthy interconnects that have not yet cracked. This cracked interconnect may seem to provide a good electrical contact due to the compressive load applied by the neighboring healthy interconnects, but it can cause the occasional loss of electrical continuity under operational and environmental loading conditions in field applications. Thus, cracked interconnects can lead to the intermittent failure of electronic assemblies and eventually to permanent failure of the product or the system. This paper introduces a model-based prognostic approach to quantitatively detect and predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis and particle filtering. Impedance analysis was previously reported as a sensitive means of detecting incipient changes at the surface of interconnects, such as cracking, based on the continuous monitoring of RF impedance. To predict the time to failure, particle filtering was used as a prognostic approach using the Paris model to address the fatigue crack growth. To validate this approach, mechanical fatigue tests were conducted with continuous monitoring of RF impedance while degrading the solder joints under test due to fatigue cracking. The test results showed the RF impedance consistently increased as the solder joints were degraded due to the growth of cracks, and particle filtering predicted the time to failure of the interconnects similarly to their actual timesto- failure based on the early sensitivity of RF impedance.

Economic evaluation of the artificial liver support system MARS in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hessel Franz P

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF is a life threatening acute decompensation of a pre-existing chronic liver disease. The artificial liver support system MARS is a new emerging therapeutic option possible to be implemented in routine care of these patients. The medical efficacy of MARS has been demonstrated in first clinical studies, but economic aspects have so far not been investigated. Objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of MARS. Methods In a clinical cohort trial with a prospective follow-up of 3 years 33 ACLF-patients treated with MARS were compared to 46 controls. Survival, health-related quality of life as well as direct medical costs for in- and outpatient treatment from a health care system perspective were determined. Based on the differences in outcome and indirect costs the cost-effectiveness of MARS expressed as incremental costs per life year gained and incremental costs per QALY gained was estimated. Results The average initial intervention costs for MARS were 14600 EUR per patient treated. Direct medical costs over 3 years follow up were overall 40000 EUR per patient treated with MARS respectively 12700 EUR in controls. The 3 year survival rate after MARS was 52% compared to 17% in controls. Kaplan-Meier analysis of cumulated survival probability showed a highly significant difference in favour of MARS. Incremental costs per life-year gained were 31400 EUR; incremental costs per QALY gained were 47200 EUR. Conclusion The results after 3 years follow-up of the first economic evaluation study of MARS based on empirical patient data are presented. Although high initial treatment costs for MARS occur the significantly better survival seen in this study led to reasonable costs per live year gained. Further randomized controlled trials investigating the medical efficacy and the cost-effectiveness are recommended.

Studies on failure kind analysis of the radiologic medical equipment in general hospital

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Woo Cheul; Kim, Jeong Lae

1999-01-01

This paper included a data analysis of the unit of medical devices using maintenance recording card that had medical devices of unit failure mode, hospital of failure mode and MTBF. The results of the analysis were as follows : 1. Medical devices of unit failure mode was the highest in QC/PM such A hospital as 33.9%, B hospital 30.9%, C hospital 30.3%, second degree was the Electrical and Electronic failure such A hospital as 23.5%, B hospital 25.3%, C hospital 28%, third degree was mechanical failure such A hospital as 19.6%, B hospital 22.5%, C hospital 25.4%. 2. Hospital of failure mode was the highest in Mobile X-ray device(A hospital 62.5%, B hospital 69.5%, C hospital 37.4%), and was the lowest in Sono devices(A hospital 16.76%, B hospital 8.4%, C hospital 7%). 3. Mean time between failures(MTBT) was the highest in SONO devices and was the lowest in Mobile X-ray devices which have 200 - 400 failure hours. 4. Average failure ratio was the highest in Mobile X-ray devices(A hospital 31.3%, B hospital 34.8%, C hospital 18.7%), and was the lowest in Sono(Ultrasound) devices (A hospital 8.4%, B hospital 4.2%, C hospital 3.5%). 5. Failure ratio results of medical devices according to QC/PM part of unit failure mode were as follows ; A hospital was the highest part of QC/PM (50%) in Mamo X-ray device and was the lowest part of QC/PM(26.4%) in Gastro X-ray. B hospital was the highest part of QC/PM(56%) in Mobile X-ray device, and the lowest part of QC/PM(12%) in Gastro X-ray. C hospital was the highest part of QC/PM(60%) in R/F X-ray device, and the lowest a part of QC/PM(21%) in Universal X-ray. It was found that the units responsible for most failure decreased by systematic management. We made the preventive maintenance schedule focusing on adjustment of operating and dust removal

Advanced composites structural concepts and materials technologies for primary aircraft structures: Structural response and failure analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dorris, William J.; Hairr, John W.; Huang, Jui-Tien; Ingram, J. Edward; Shah, Bharat M.

1992-01-01

Non-linear analysis methods were adapted and incorporated in a finite element based DIAL code. These methods are necessary to evaluate the global response of a stiffened structure under combined in-plane and out-of-plane loading. These methods include the Arc Length method and target point analysis procedure. A new interface material model was implemented that can model elastic-plastic behavior of the bond adhesive. Direct application of this method is in skin/stiffener interface failure assessment. Addition of the AML (angle minus longitudinal or load) failure procedure and Hasin's failure criteria provides added capability in the failure predictions. Interactive Stiffened Panel Analysis modules were developed as interactive pre-and post-processors. Each module provides the means of performing self-initiated finite elements based analysis of primary structures such as a flat or curved stiffened panel; a corrugated flat sandwich panel; and a curved geodesic fuselage panel. This module brings finite element analysis into the design of composite structures without the requirement for the user to know much about the techniques and procedures needed to actually perform a finite element analysis from scratch. An interactive finite element code was developed to predict bolted joint strength considering material and geometrical non-linearity. The developed method conducts an ultimate strength failure analysis using a set of material degradation models.

Laboratory and 3-D distinct element analysis of the failure mechanism of a slope under external surcharge

Science.gov (United States)

Li, N.; Cheng, Y. M.

2015-01-01

Landslide is a major disaster resulting in considerable loss of human lives and property damages in hilly terrain in Hong Kong, China and many other countries. The factor of safety and the critical slip surface for slope stabilization are the main considerations for slope stability analysis in the past, while the detailed post-failure conditions of the slopes have not been considered in sufficient detail. There is however increasing interest in the consequences after the initiation of failure that includes the development and propagation of the failure surfaces, the amount of failed mass and runoff and the affected region. To assess the development of slope failure in more detail and to consider the potential danger of slopes after failure has initiated, the slope stability problem under external surcharge is analyzed by the distinct element method (DEM) and a laboratory model test in the present research. A more refined study about the development of failure, microcosmic failure mechanisms and the post-failure mechanisms of slopes will be carried out. The numerical modeling method and the various findings from the present work can provide an alternate method of analysis of slope failure, which can give additional information not available from the classical methods of analysis.

Comprehensive Deployment Method for Technical Characteristics Base on Multi-failure Modes Correlation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, W.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, R. X.; Chen, K.; Jiang, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper put forward a new method of technical characteristics deployment based on Reliability Function Deployment (RFD) by analysing the advantages and shortages of related research works on mechanical reliability design. The matrix decomposition structure of RFD was used to describe the correlative relation between failure mechanisms, soft failures and hard failures. By considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the reliability loss of one failure mode to the whole part was defined, and a calculation and analysis model for reliability loss was presented. According to the reliability loss, the reliability index value of the whole part was allocated to each failure mode. On the basis of the deployment of reliability index value, the inverse reliability method was employed to acquire the values of technology characteristics. The feasibility and validity of proposed method were illustrated by a development case of machining centre’s transmission system.

Health market failures: Colombian case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Eduardo Bejarano-Daza

2017-01-01

Conclusion: There are significant failures in the Colombian health market which make the system inefficient and inequitable; this situation demands for reconsideration of an economic model for financing and operation under a new paradigm.

Economics of Harvesting and Marketing Selected Indigenous Fruits in Mwingi District, Kenya

OpenAIRE

Mwema, C. M.; Lagat, J.K.; Mutai, B. K.

2013-01-01

Constant droughts especially in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) have led to recurrent crop failures and livestock losses. Households have therefore resulted to other alternatives which can provide both food and income. Trade in indigenous fruits contributes to livelihoods through income generation and as a safety net for consumption and income smoothing. This paper presents the analysis of economic returns from harvesting and marketing indigenous fruits and the socio economic factors that...

Transportation and quantitative analysis of socio-economic development of relations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yun

2017-12-01

Transportation has a close relationship with socio-economic. This article selects the indicators which can measure the development of transportation and socio-economic, using the method of correlation analysis, regression analysis, intensity of transportation analysis and transport elastic analysis, to analyze the relationship between them quantitatively, so that it has the fact guiding sense in the national development planning for the future.

Statistical analysis of human maintenance failures of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a statistical study of faults caused by maintenance activities is presented. The objective of the study was to draw conclusions on the unplanned effects of maintenance on nuclear power plant safety and system availability. More than 4400 maintenance history reports from the years 1992-1994 of Olkiluoto BWR nuclear power plant (NPP) were analysed together with the maintenance personnel. The human action induced faults were classified, e.g., according to their multiplicity and effects. This paper presents and discusses the results of a statistical analysis of the data. Instrumentation and electrical components are especially prone to human failures. Many human failures were found in safety related systems. Similarly, several failures remained latent from outages to power operation. The safety significance was generally small. Modifications are an important source of multiple human failures. Plant maintenance data is a good source of human reliability data and it should be used more, in future. (orig.)

Failure propagation tests and analysis at PNC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanabe, H.; Miyake, O.; Daigo, Y.; Sato, M.

1984-01-01

Failure propagation tests have been conducted using the Large Leak Sodium Water Reaction Test Rig (SWAT-1) and the Steam Generator Safety Test Facility (SWAT-3) at PNC in order to establish the safety design of the LMFBR prototype Monju steam generators. Test objectives are to provide data for selecting a design basis leak (DBL), data on the time history of failure propagations, data on the mechanism of the failures, and data on re-use of tubes in the steam generators that have suffered leaks. Eighteen fundamental tests have been performed in an intermediate leak region using the SWAT-1 test rig, and ten failure propagation tests have been conducted in the region from a small leak to a large leak using the SWAT-3 test facility. From the test results it was concluded that a dominant mechanism was tube wastage, and it took more than one minute until each failure propagation occurred. Also, the total leak rate in full sequence simulation tests including a water dump was far less than that of one double-ended-guillotine (DEG) failure. Using such experimental data, a computer code, LEAP (Leak Enlargement and Propagation), has been developed for the purpose of estimating the possible maximum leak rate due to failure propagation. This paper describes the results of the failure propagation tests and the model structure and validation studies of the LEAP code. (author)

Failure analysis of radioisotopic heat source capsules tested under multi-axial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zielinski, R.E.; Stacy, E.; Burgan, C.E.

In order to qualify small radioisotopic heat sources for a 25-yr design life, multi-axial mechanical tests were performed on the structural components of the heat source. The results of these tests indicated that failure predominantly occurred in the middle of the weld ramp-down zone. Examination of the failure zone by standard metallographic techniques failed to indicate the true cause of failure. A modified technique utilizing chemical etching, scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive x-ray analysis was employed and dramatically indicated the true cause of failure, impurity concentration in the ramp-down zone. As a result of the initial investigation, weld parameters for the heat sources were altered. Example welds made with a pulse arc technique did not have this impurity buildup in the ramp-down zone

Uncertainty analysis with statistically correlated failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modarres, M.; Dezfuli, H.; Roush, M.L.

1987-01-01

Likelihood of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree or sequences of an event tree is estimated from the failure probability of components that constitute the events of the fault/event tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. At present most fault tree calculations are based on uncorrelated component failure data. This chapter describes a methodology for assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees or frequency of occurrence of event tree sequences when event failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. Moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting the Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program, CORRELATE, was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. (author)

Clinical and economic analysis of rescue intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Shalom-paz, Einat; Alshalati, Jana; Shehata, Fady; Jimenez, Luis; Son, Weon-Young; Holzer, Hananel; Tan, Seang Lin; Almog, Benny

2011-12-01

To identify clinical and embryological factors that may predict success in rescue intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles (after total fertilization failure has occurred) and to evaluate the cost effectiveness of rescue ICSI strategy. Additionally, follow-up of 20 rescue ICSI pregnancies is reported. Retrospective analysis of total fertilization failure cycles. University-based tertiary medical center. In total, 92 patients who had undergone conventional in-vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles with total fertilization failure were included. The patients were divided into two subgroups: those who conceived through rescue ICSI and those who did not. The pregnant members of the rescue ICSI subgroup were found to be significantly younger (32.9 ± 4.2 vs. 36.3 ± 4.5, respectively, p = 0.0035,) and to have better-quality embryos than those who did not conceive (cumulative embryo score: 38.3 ± 20.4 vs. 29.3 ± 14.7, p = 0.025). Cost effectiveness analysis showed 25% reduction in the cost per live birth when rescue ICSI is compared to cycle cancellation approach. The pregnancies follow-up did not show adverse perinatal outcome. Rescue ICSI is an option for salvaging IVF cycles complicated by total fertilization failure. Success in rescue ICSI was found to be associated with younger age and higher quality of embryos. Furthermore, the cost effectiveness of rescue ICSI in terms of total fertilization failure was found to be worthwhile.

Photovoltaic module reliability improvement through application testing and failure analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dumas, L. N.; Shumka, A.

1982-01-01

During the first four years of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Photovoltatic Program, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project purchased about 400 kW of photovoltaic modules for test and experiments. In order to identify, report, and analyze test and operational problems with the Block Procurement modules, a problem/failure reporting and analysis system was implemented by the LSA Project with the main purpose of providing manufacturers with feedback from test and field experience needed for the improvement of product performance and reliability. A description of the more significant types of failures is presented, taking into account interconnects, cracked cells, dielectric breakdown, delamination, and corrosion. Current design practices and reliability evaluations are also discussed. The conducted evaluation indicates that current module designs incorporate damage-resistant and fault-tolerant features which address field failure mechanisms observed to date.

Failure trend analysis for safety related components of Korean standard NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Han, Sang Hoon

2005-01-01

The component reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is required necessarily for PSA of Korean nuclear power plants. We have performed a project to develop the component reliability database (KIND, Korea Integrated Nuclear Reliability Database) and S/W for database management and component reliability analysis. Based on the system, we have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data during from plant operation date to 2002 for YGN 3, 4 and UCN 3, 4 plants. Recently, we provided the component failure rate data for UCN 3, 4 standard PSA model from the KIND. We evaluated the components that have high-ranking failure rates with the component reliability data from plant operation date to 1998 and 2000 for YGN 3,4 and UCN 3, 4 respectively. We also identified their failure mode that occurred frequently. In this study, we analyze the component failure trend and perform site comparison based on the generic data by using the component reliability data which is extended to 2002 for UCN 3, 4 and YGN 3, 4 respectively. We focus on the major safety related rotating components such as pump, EDG etc

RECOVERY STRATEGIES FOR SERVICE FAILURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Budeanu Andreea

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Internationally, services represent the most important sector of the economy both in terms of economic performance and labor utilization. Becoming essential part of today society, they are considered the basis of a healthy economy, fact that has increased the importance of services and the research in the field.T hrough this work we intend to address a number of issues that require clarification and are relevant to this sector. Increased competition and customers higher demands lead to difficulties in service delivery, so managers of service organizations must work hard towards developing appropiate strategies that can lead to improved customers satisfaction and to increased efficiency. Because it is inevitably for service providers to face situations in which service failure occurs and their customers are not satisfied, understanding the nature of service failures and the ways in which an organization can recover after a failure are considered key factors for achieving customer satisfaction. Since the data suggests that over 50% of customers who are facing problems are not satisfied with the way they were resolved, we consider appropriate to approach this topic. We intend to draw attention to service providers to the importance of proper management of service failure. They can find ways to recover from these failures and even to turn them into some very pleasant situations that can contribute to customer loyalty. This paper begins by highlighting the various features specific to services which contribute to the increased chances of failure, it continues by presenting the concepts of service failure and service recovery and then it presents some links that exist between service recovery and other aspects of providing services that are demonstrated in the literature. We hope that this paper will significantly contribute to the knowledge and development of the sector under analysis and will highlight some practices that will lead to improved

Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee

1997-01-01

During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

First outline and baseline data of a randomized, controlled multicenter trial to evaluate the health economic impact of home telemonitoring in chronic heart failure - CardioBBEAT.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Reiner; Völler, Heinz; Nagels, Klaus; Bindl, Dominik; Vettorazzi, Eik; Dittmar, Ronny; Wohlgemuth, Walter; Neumann, Till; Störk, Stefan; Bruder, Oliver; Wegscheider, Karl; Nagel, Eckhard; Fleck, Eckart

2015-08-11

Evidence that home telemonitoring for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) offers clinical benefit over usual care is controversial as is evidence of a health economic advantage. Between January 2010 and June 2013, patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CHF were enrolled and randomly assigned to 2 study groups comprising usual care with and without an interactive bi-directional remote monitoring system (Motiva®). The primary endpoint in CardioBBEAT is the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) established by the groups' difference in total cost and in the combined clinical endpoint "days alive and not in hospital nor inpatient care per potential days in study" within the follow-up of 12 months. A total of 621 predominantly male patients were enrolled, whereof 302 patients were assigned to the intervention group and 319 to the control group. Ischemic cardiomyopathy was the leading cause of heart failure. Despite randomization, subjects of the control group were more often in NYHA functional class III-IV, and exhibited peripheral edema and renal dysfunction more often. Additionally, the control and intervention groups differed in heart rhythm disorders. No differences existed regarding risk factor profile, comorbidities, echocardiographic parameters, especially left ventricular and diastolic diameter and ejection fraction, as well as functional test results, medication and quality of life. While the observed baseline differences may well be a play of chance, they are of clinical relevance. Therefore, the statistical analysis plan was extended to include adjusted analyses with respect to the baseline imbalances. CardioBBEAT provides prospective outcome data on both, clinical and health economic impact of home telemonitoring in CHF. The study differs by the use of a high evidence level randomized controlled trial (RCT) design along with actual cost data obtained from health insurance companies. Its results are conducive to informed political and economic

Failure Analysis of PRDS Pipe in a Thermal Power Plant Boiler

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Debashis; Ray, Subrata; Mandal, Jiten; Mandal, Nilrudra; Shukla, Awdhesh Kumar

2018-04-01

The pressure reducer desuperheater (PRDS) pipeline is used for reducing the pressure and desuperheating of the steam in different auxiliary pipeline. When the PRDS pipeline is failed, the reliability of the boiler is affected. This paper investigates the probable cause/causes of failure of the PRDS tapping line. In that context, visual inspection, outside diameter and wall thickness measurement, chemical analysis, metallographic examination and hardness measurement are conducted as part of the investigative studies. Apart from these tests, mechanical testing and fractographic analysis are also conducted as supplements. Finally, it has been concluded that the PRDS pipeline has mainly failed due to graphitization due to prolonged exposure of the pipe at higher temperature. The improper material used is mainly responsible for premature failure of the pipe.

Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klimis Vogiatzoglou

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

A quantitative impact analysis of sensor failures on human operator's decision making in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seong, Poong Hyun

2004-01-01

In emergency or accident situations in nuclear power plants, human operators take important roles in generating appropriate control signals to mitigate accident situation. In human reliability analysis (HRA) in the framework of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the failure probabilities of such appropriate actions are estimated and used for the safety analysis of nuclear power plants. Even though understanding the status of the plant is basically the process of information seeking and processing by human operators, it seems that conventional HRA methods such as THERP, HCR, and ASEP does not pay a lot of attention to the possibilities of providing wrong information to human operators. In this paper, a quantitative impact analysis of providing wrong information to human operators due to instrument faults or sensor failures is performed. The quantitative impact analysis is performed based on a quantitative situation assessment model. By comparing the situation in which there are sensor failures and the situation in which there are not sensor failures, the impact of sensor failures can be evaluated quantitatively. It is concluded that the impact of sensor failures are quite significant at the initial stages, but the impact is gradually reduced as human operators make more and more observations. Even though the impact analysis is highly dependent on the situation assessment model, it is expected that the conclusions made based on other situation assessment models with be consistent with the conclusion made in this paper. (author)

Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...

Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian

2017-01-01

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)

2017-02-20

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Gearbox 1 Failure Analysis Report: December 2010 - January 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Errichello, R.; Muller, J.

2012-02-01

Unintended gearbox failures have a significant impact on the cost of wind farm operations. In 2007, NREL initiated the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC). The project combines analysis, field testing, dynamometer testing, condition monitoring, and the development and population of a gearbox failure database in a multi-pronged approach to determine why wind turbine gearboxes do not achieve their expected design life. The collaborative of manufacturers, owners, researchers, and consultants focuses on gearbox testing and modeling and the development of a gearbox failure database. Collaborative members also investigate gearbox condition monitoring techniques. Data gained from the GRC will enable designers, developers, and manufacturers to improve gearbox designs and testing standards and create more robust modeling tools. GRC project essentials include the development of two identical, heavily instrumented representative gearbox designs. Knowledge gained from the field and dynamometer tests conducted on these gearboxes builds an understanding of how the selected loads and events translate into bearing and gear response. This report contains the analysis of the first gearbox design.

Advances on the Failure Analysis of the Dam—Foundation Interface of Concrete Dams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Altarejos-García

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Failure analysis of the dam-foundation interface in concrete dams is characterized by complexity, uncertainties on models and parameters, and a strong non-linear softening behavior. In practice, these uncertainties are dealt with a well-structured mixture of experience, best practices and prudent, conservative design approaches based on the safety factor concept. Yet, a sound, deep knowledge of some aspects of this failure mode remain unveiled, as they have been offset in practical applications by the use of this conservative approach. In this paper we show a strategy to analyse this failure mode under a reliability-based approach. The proposed methodology of analysis integrates epistemic uncertainty on spatial variability of strength parameters and data from dam monitoring. The purpose is to produce meaningful and useful information regarding the probability of occurrence of this failure mode that can be incorporated in risk-informed dam safety reviews. In addition, relationships between probability of failure and factors of safety are obtained. This research is supported by a more than a decade of intensive professional practice on real world cases and its final purpose is to bring some clarity, guidance and to contribute to the improvement of current knowledge and best practices on such an important dam safety concern.

Failure mode and effects analysis of witnessing protocols for ensuring traceability during IVF.

Science.gov (United States)

Rienzi, Laura; Bariani, Fiorenza; Dalla Zorza, Michela; Romano, Stefania; Scarica, Catello; Maggiulli, Roberta; Nanni Costa, Alessandro; Ubaldi, Filippo Maria

2015-10-01

Traceability of cells during IVF is a fundamental aspect of treatment, and involves witnessing protocols. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method of identifying real or potential breakdowns in processes, and allows strategies to mitigate risks to be developed. To examine the risks associated with witnessing protocols, an FMEA was carried out in a busy IVF centre, before and after implementation of an electronic witnessing system (EWS). A multidisciplinary team was formed and moderated by human factors specialists. Possible causes of failures, and their potential effects, were identified and risk priority number (RPN) for each failure calculated. A second FMEA analysis was carried out after implementation of an EWS. The IVF team identified seven main process phases, 19 associated process steps and 32 possible failure modes. The highest RPN was 30, confirming the relatively low risk that mismatches may occur in IVF when a manual witnessing system is used. The introduction of the EWS allowed a reduction in the moderate-risk failure mode by two-thirds (highest RPN = 10). In our experience, FMEA is effective in supporting multidisciplinary IVF groups to understand the witnessing process, identifying critical steps and planning changes in practice to enable safety to be enhanced. Copyright © 2015 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability analysis for the creep rupture mode of failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaidyanathan, S.

1975-01-01

An analytical study has been carried out to relate the factors of safety employed in the design of a component to the probability of failure in the thermal creep rupture mode. The analysis considers the statistical variations in the operating temperature, stress and rupture time, and applies the life fraction damage criterion as the indicator of failure. Typical results for solution annealed type 304-stainless steel material for the temperature and stress variations expected in an LMFBR environment have been obtained. The analytical problem was solved by considering the joint distribution of the independent variables and deriving the distribution for the function associated with the probability of failure by integrating over proper regions as dictated by the deterministic design rule. This leads to a triple integral for the final probability of failure where the coefficients of variation associated with the temperature, stress and rupture time distributions can be specified by the user. The derivation is general, and can be used for time varying stress histories and the case of irradiated material where the rupture time varies with accumulated fluence. Example calculations applied to solution annealed type 304 stainless steel material have been carried out for an assumed coefficient of variation of 2% for temperature and 6% for stress. The results show that the probability of failure associated with dependent stress intensity limits specified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Section III Code Case 1592 is less than 5x10 -8 . Rupture under thermal creep conditions is a highly complicated phenomenon. It is believed that the present study will help in quantizing the reliability to be expected with deterministic design factors of safety

Combined-cycle steam section parametric analysis by thermo-economic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macor, A.; Reini, M.

1991-01-01

In the case of industrial cogeneration plants, thermal power production is, in general, strictly dependent on the technological requirements of the production cycle, whereas, the electrical power which is produced can be auto- consumed or ceded to the utility grid. In both cases, an economic worth is given to this energy which influences the overall economic feasibility of the plant. The purpose of this paper is to examine parametric inter-relationships between economic and thermodynamic performance optimization techniques. Comparisons are then made of the results obtained with the use of the thermo- economic analysis technique suggested in this paper with those obtained with the use of indicators in other exergo-economic analysis techniques

Common-Cause Failure Analysis in Event Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmuson, D.M.; Kelly, D.L.

2008-01-01

This paper reviews the basic concepts of modeling common-cause failures (CCFs) in reliability and risk studies and then applies these concepts to the treatment of CCF in event assessment. The cases of a failed component (with and without shared CCF potential) and a component being unavailable due to preventive maintenance or testing are addressed. The treatment of two related failure modes (e.g. failure to start and failure to run) is a new feature of this paper, as is the treatment of asymmetry within a common-cause component group

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harry, T; Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T

2016-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harry, T [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

Failure analysis and failure prevention in electric power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rau, C.A. Jr.; Becker, D.G.; Besuner, P.M.; Cipolla, R.C.; Egan, G.R.; Gupta, P.; Johnson, D.P.; Omry, U.; Tetelman, A.S.; Rettig, T.W.; Peters, D.C.

1977-01-01

New methods have been developed and applied to better quantify and increase the reliability, safety, and availability of electric power plants. Present and potential problem areas have been identified both by development of an improved computerized data base of malfunctions in nuclear power plants and by detailed metallurgical and mechanical failure analyses of selected problems. Significant advances in the accuracy and speed of structural analyses have been made through development and application of the boundary integral equation and influence function methods of stress and fracture mechanics analyses. The currently specified flaw evaluation procedures of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code have been computerized. Results obtained from these procedures for evaluation of specific in-service inspection indications have been compared with results obtained utilizing the improved analytical methods. Mathematical methods have also been developed to describe and analyze the statistical variations in materials properties and in component loading, and uncertainties in the flaw size that might be passed by quality assurance systems. These new methods have been combined to develop accurate failure rate predictions based upon probabilistic fracture mechanics. Improved failure prevention strategies have been formulated by combining probabilistic fracture mechanics and cost optimization techniques. The approach has been demonstrated by optimizing the nondestructive inspection level with regard to both reliability and cost. (Auth.)

Economics and rational conservation policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metcalf, G.E.

1994-01-01

Energy analysts have been concerned with the apparently low level of energy-efficient investments and have suggested the presence of various market barriers and failures that hinder investment. The concept of a barrier as defined here is some force that is working against investment in energy-efficient technologies. Market failures, on the other hand, are failures of the competitive paradigm that lead to economically inefficient outcomes. Market barriers require no particular response on the part of government while market failures may call for some policy response. (author)

Failure mode analysis using state variables derived from fault trees with application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartholomew, R.J.

1982-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is used extensively to assess both the qualitative and quantitative reliability of engineered nuclear power systems employing many subsystems and components. FTA is very useful, but the method is limited by its inability to account for failure mode rate-of-change interdependencies (coupling) of statistically independent failure modes. The state variable approach (using FTA-derived failure modes as states) overcomes these difficulties and is applied to the determination of the lifetime distribution function for a heat pipe-thermoelectric nuclear power subsystem. Analyses are made using both Monte Carlo and deterministic methods and compared with a Markov model of the same subsystem

Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

Application of Machine Learning for Dragline Failure Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taghizadeh Amir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Overburden stripping in open cast coal mines is extensively carried out by walking draglines. Draglines’ unavailability and unexpected failures result in delayed productions and increased maintenance and operating costs. Therefore, achieving high availability of draglines plays a crucial role for increasing economic feasibility of mining projects. Applications of methodologies which can forecast the failure type of dragline based on the available failure data not only help to reduce the maintenance and operating costs but also increase the availability and the production rate. In this study, Machine Learning approaches have been applied for data which has been gathered from an operating coal mine in Turkey. The study methodology consists of three algorithms as: i implementation of K-Nearest Neighbors, ii implementation of Multi-Layer Perceptron, and iii implementation of Radial Basis Function. The algorithms have been utilized for predicting the draglines’ failure types. In this sense, the input data, which are mean time-to-failure, and the output data, failure types, have been fed to the algorithms. The regression analysis of methodologies have been compared and showed the K- Nearest Neighbors has a higher rate of regression which is around 70 percent. Thus, the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm can be applied in order to preventive components replacement which causes to minimized preventive and corrective cost parameters. The accurate prediction of failure type, indeed, causes to optimized number of inspections. The novelty of this study is application of machine learning approaches in draglines’ reliability subject for first time.

Does Bruxism Contribute to Dental Implant Failure? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yi; Gao, Jinxia; Luo, Le; Wang, Yining

2016-04-01

Bruxism was usually considered as a contraindication for oral implanting. The causal relationship between bruxism and dental implant failure was remained controversial in existing literatures. This meta-analysis was performed to investigate the relationship between them. This review conducted an electronic systematic literature search in MEDLINE (PubMed) and EmBase in November 2013 without time and language restrictions. Meanwhile, a hand searching for all the relevant references of included studies was also conducted. Study information extraction and methodological quality assessments were accomplished by two reviewers independently. A discussion ensued if any disagreement occurred, and unresolved issues were solved by consulting a third reviewer. Methodological quality was assessed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale tool. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was pooled to estimate the relative effect of bruxism on dental implant failures. Fixed effects model was used initially; if the heterogeneity was high, random effects model was chosen for meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were carried out by using Review Manager 5.1. In this meta-analysis review, extracted data were classified into two groups based on different units. Units were based on the number of prostheses (group A) and the number of patients (group B). In group A, the total pooled OR of bruxers versus nonbruxers for all subgroups was 4.72 (95% CI: 2.66-8.36, p = .07). In group B, the total pooled OR of bruxers versus nonbruxers for all subgroups was 3.83 (95% CI: 2.12-6.94, p = .22). This meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between bruxism and dental implant failure. In contrast to nonbruxers, prostheses in bruxers had a higher failure rate. It suggests that bruxism is a contributing factor of causing the occurrence of dental implant technical/biological complications and plays a role in dental implant failure. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Random safety auditing, root cause analysis, failure mode and effects analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ursprung, Robert; Gray, James

2010-03-01

Improving quality and safety in health care is a major concern for health care providers, the general public, and policy makers. Errors and quality issues are leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the health care industry. There is evidence that patients in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are at high risk for serious medical errors. To facilitate compliance with safe practices, many institutions have established quality-assurance monitoring procedures. Three techniques that have been found useful in the health care setting are failure mode and effects analysis, root cause analysis, and random safety auditing. When used together, these techniques are effective tools for system analysis and redesign focused on providing safe delivery of care in the complex NICU system. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure mode and effects analysis outputs: are they valid?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shebl Nada

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA is a prospective risk assessment tool that has been widely used within the aerospace and automotive industries and has been utilised within healthcare since the early 1990s. The aim of this study was to explore the validity of FMEA outputs within a hospital setting in the United Kingdom. Methods Two multidisciplinary teams each conducted an FMEA for the use of vancomycin and gentamicin. Four different validity tests were conducted: · Face validity: by comparing the FMEA participants’ mapped processes with observational work. · Content validity: by presenting the FMEA findings to other healthcare professionals. · Criterion validity: by comparing the FMEA findings with data reported on the trust’s incident report database. · Construct validity: by exploring the relevant mathematical theories involved in calculating the FMEA risk priority number. Results Face validity was positive as the researcher documented the same processes of care as mapped by the FMEA participants. However, other healthcare professionals identified potential failures missed by the FMEA teams. Furthermore, the FMEA groups failed to include failures related to omitted doses; yet these were the failures most commonly reported in the trust’s incident database. Calculating the RPN by multiplying severity, probability and detectability scores was deemed invalid because it is based on calculations that breach the mathematical properties of the scales used. Conclusion There are significant methodological challenges in validating FMEA. It is a useful tool to aid multidisciplinary groups in mapping and understanding a process of care; however, the results of our study cast doubt on its validity. FMEA teams are likely to need different sources of information, besides their personal experience and knowledge, to identify potential failures. As for FMEA’s methodology for scoring failures, there were discrepancies

Integrated environmental policy: A review of economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiesmeth, Hans; Häckl, Dennis

2017-04-01

Holistic environmental policies, which emerged from a mere combination of technical activities in waste management some 40 years ago, constitute the most advanced level of environmental policies. These approaches to environmental policy, among them the policies in integrated waste management, attempt to guide economic agents to an environment-friendly behaviour. Nevertheless, current holistic policies in waste management, including policies on one-way drinks containers and waste electrical and electronic equipment, and implementations of extended producer responsibility with further applications to waste electrical and electronic equipment, reveal more or less severe deficiencies - despite some positive examples. This article relates these policy failures, which are not necessarily the result of an insufficient compliance with the regulations, to missing constitutive elements of what is going to be called an 'integrated environmental policy'. This article therefore investigates - mostly from a practical point of view - constitutive elements, which are necessary for a holistic policy to serve as a well-functioning allocation mechanism. As these constitutive elements result from a careful 'integration' of the environmental commodities into the economic allocation problems, we refer to these policies as 'integrated environmental policies'. The article also discusses and illustrates the main steps of designing such a policy - for waste electrical and electronic equipment and a (possible) ban of Glyphosat in agriculture. As these policies are dependent on economic and political stability with environmental awareness sufficiently developed, the article addresses mostly waste management policies in highly industrialised countries.

Failure analysis of boiler tube

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehmood, K.; Siddiqui, A.R.

2007-01-01

Boiler tubes are energy conversion components where heat energy is used to convert water into high pressure superheated steam, which is then delivered to a turbine for electric power generation in thermal power plants or to run plant and machineries in a process or manufacturing industry. It was reported that one of the tubes of a fire-tube boiler used in a local industry had leakage after the formation of pits at the external surface of the tube. The inner side of the fire tube was working with hot flue gasses with a pressure of 10 Kg/cm/sup 2/ and temperature 225 degree C. The outside of the tube was surrounded by feed water. The purpose of this study was to determine the cause of pits developed at the external surface of the failed boiler tube sample. In the present work boiler tube samples of steel grade ASTM AI61/ASTM A192 were analyzed using metallographic analysis, chemical analysis, and mechanical testing. It was concluded that the appearance of defects on the boiler tube sample indicates cavitation type corrosion failure. Cavitation damage superficially resembled pitting, but surface appeared considerably rougher and had many closely spaced pits. (author)

Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis

OpenAIRE

Women in Development Division

1989-01-01

This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

1997-12-01

The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

BILAM: a composite laminate failure-analysis code using bilinear stress-strain approximations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McLaughlin, P.V. Jr.; Dasgupta, A.; Chun, Y.W.

1980-10-01

The BILAM code which uses constant strain laminate analysis to generate in-plane load/deformation or stress/strain history of composite laminates to the point of laminate failure is described. The program uses bilinear stress-strain curves to model layer stress-strain behavior. Composite laminates are used for flywheels. The use of this computer code will help to develop data on the behavior of fiber composite materials which can be used by flywheel designers. In this program the stress-strain curves are modelled by assuming linear response in axial tension while using bilinear approximations (2 linear segments) for stress-strain response to axial compressive, transverse tensile, transverse compressive and axial shear loadings. It should be noted that the program attempts to empirically simulate the effects of the phenomena which cause nonlinear stress-strain behavior, instead of mathematically modelling the micromechanics involved. This code, therefore, performs a bilinear laminate analysis, and, in conjunction with several user-defined failure interaction criteria, is designed to provide sequential information on all layer failures up to and including the first fiber failure. The modus operandi is described. Code BILAM can be used to: predict the load-deformation/stress-strain behavior of a composite laminate subjected to a given combination of in-plane loads, and make analytical predictions of laminate strength.

Analysis of Service Recovery Failure: From Minority Perspective

OpenAIRE

Yasemin Öcal Atınç

2016-01-01

We investigate the service failures towards diverse customer groups for the purpose to bring insightful proposals to the managers to recover from these failures. Previous literature provided insights regarding the perception of service failures by minorities and the challenge of recovery due to racial implications driven from the failure, however lacked to propose suggestions for the managers so that they can take either corrective steps toward service failure recovery or prevent service fail...

[Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) of insulin in a mother-child university-affiliated health center].

Science.gov (United States)

Berruyer, M; Atkinson, S; Lebel, D; Bussières, J-F

2016-01-01

Insulin is a high-alert drug. The main objective of this descriptive cross-sectional study was to evaluate the risks associated with insulin use in healthcare centers. The secondary objective was to propose corrective measures to reduce the main risks associated with the most critical failure modes in the analysis. We conducted a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) in obstetrics-gynecology, neonatology and pediatrics. Five multidisciplinary meetings occurred in August 2013. A total of 44 out of 49 failure modes were analyzed. Nine out of 44 (20%) failure modes were deemed critical, with a criticality score ranging from 540 to 720. Following the multidisciplinary meetings, everybody agreed that an FMEA was a useful tool to identify failure modes and their relative importance. This approach identified many corrective measures. This shared experience increased awareness of safety issues with insulin in our mother-child center. This study identified the main failure modes and associated corrective measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Failure Analysis of a Modern High Performance Diesel Engine Cylinder Head

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bingbin Guo

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a failure analysis on a modern high performance diesel engine cylinder head made of gray cast iron. Cracks appeared intensively at the intersection of two exhaust passages in the cylinder head. The metallurgical examination was conducted in the crack origin zone and other zones. Meanwhile, the load state of the failure part of the cylinder head was determined through the Finite Element Analysis. The results showed that both the point of the maximum temperature and the point of the maximum thermal-mechanical coupling stress were not in the crack position. The excessive load was not the main cause of the failure. The large cooling rate in the casting process created an abnormal graphite zone that existed below the surface of the exhaust passage (about 1.1 mm depth, which led to the fracture of the cylinder head. In the fractured area, there were a large number of casting defects (dip sand, voids, etc. and inferior graphite structure (type D, type E which caused stress concentration. Moreover, high temperature gas entered the cracks, which caused material corrosion, material oxidization, and crack propagation. Finally, premature fracture of the cylinder head took place.

Root cause analysis of SI line-seated thermal sleeve separation failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Jong Chull; Jhung, Myung Jo; Kim, Hho Jung

2004-01-01

At conventional pressurized water reactors, a thermal sleeve (named simply 'sleeve' hereafter) is seated inside the nozzle part of each Safety Injection (SI) branch pipe to prevent and relieve potential excessive transient thermal stress in the nozzle wall when a cold water is injected during the safety injection mode Recently, mechanical failures that the sleeves are separated from the SI branch pipe and fall into the connected cold leg main pipe were occurred in sequence at Yonggwang units 5 and 6 and Ulchin unit 5. There were many activities and efforts to figure out the causes of those failures with experts' reasoning, but the proposed causes were derived from superficial views rather than physically concrete grounds or analysis results. The prerequisites to find out the root causes of failure mechanism will be to identify the flow situation in the pipe junction area connecting the cold leg with the SI pipe and to know the vibration characteristics of sleeves. This paper investigates the flow field in the pipe junction thru a numerical simulation and vibration characteristics of thermal sleeves thru a modal analysis, from which the root causes of sleeve separation mechanism are analyzed

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for Gamma Knife radiosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Andy Yuanguang; Bhatnagar, Jagdish; Bednarz, Greg; Flickinger, John; Arai, Yoshio; Vacsulka, Jonet; Feng, Wenzheng; Monaco, Edward; Niranjan, Ajay; Lunsford, L Dade; Huq, M Saiful

2017-11-01

Gamma Knife radiosurgery is a highly precise and accurate treatment technique for treating brain diseases with low risk of serious error that nevertheless could potentially be reduced. We applied the AAPM Task Group 100 recommended failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) tool to develop a risk-based quality management program for Gamma Knife radiosurgery. A team consisting of medical physicists, radiation oncologists, neurosurgeons, radiation safety officers, nurses, operating room technologists, and schedulers at our institution and an external physicist expert on Gamma Knife was formed for the FMEA study. A process tree and a failure mode table were created for the Gamma Knife radiosurgery procedures using the Leksell Gamma Knife Perfexion and 4C units. Three scores for the probability of occurrence (O), the severity (S), and the probability of no detection for failure mode (D) were assigned to each failure mode by 8 professionals on a scale from 1 to 10. An overall risk priority number (RPN) for each failure mode was then calculated from the averaged O, S, and D scores. The coefficient of variation for each O, S, or D score was also calculated. The failure modes identified were prioritized in terms of both the RPN scores and the severity scores. The established process tree for Gamma Knife radiosurgery consists of 10 subprocesses and 53 steps, including a subprocess for frame placement and 11 steps that are directly related to the frame-based nature of the Gamma Knife radiosurgery. Out of the 86 failure modes identified, 40 Gamma Knife specific failure modes were caused by the potential for inappropriate use of the radiosurgery head frame, the imaging fiducial boxes, the Gamma Knife helmets and plugs, the skull definition tools as well as other features of the GammaPlan treatment planning system. The other 46 failure modes are associated with the registration, imaging, image transfer, contouring processes that are common for all external beam radiation therapy

Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Zhen

2013-01-01

and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...

Failure analysis of top nozzle holddown spring screw for nuclear fuel assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, S. K.; Ryu, C. H.; Na, E. G.; Baek, T. H.; Jeon, K. L.

2003-01-01

A failure analysis of holddown spring screw was performed using fracture mechanics approach. The spring screw was designed such that it was capable of sustaining the loads imposed by the initial tensile preload and operational loads. In order to investigate the cause of failure, a stress analysis of the top nozzle spring assembly was done using finite element analysis and a life prediction of the screw was made using a fracture mechanics approach. The elastic-plastic finite element analysis showed that the local stresses at the critical regions of head-shank fillet and thread root significantly exceeded than the yield strength of the screw material, resulting in local plastic deformation. Primary water stress corrosion cracking life of the Inconel 600 screw was predicted by using integration of the Scott model and resulted in 1.42 years, which was fairly close to the actual service life of the holddown spring screw

Modular titanium alloy neck adapter failures in hip replacement - failure mode analysis and influence of implant material

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bloemer Wilhelm

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Modular neck adapters for hip arthroplasty stems allow the surgeon to modify CCD angle, offset and femoral anteversion intraoperatively. Fretting or crevice corrosion may lead to failure of such a modular device due to high loads or surface contamination inside the modular coupling. Unfortunately we have experienced such a failure of implants and now report our clinical experience with the failures in order to advance orthopaedic material research and joint replacement surgery. The failed neck adapters were implanted between August 2004 and November 2006 a total of about 5000 devices. After this period, the titanium neck adapters were replaced by adapters out of cobalt-chromium. Until the end of 2008 in total 1.4% (n = 68 of the implanted titanium alloy neck adapters failed with an average time of 2.0 years (0.7 to 4.0 years postoperatively. All, but one, patients were male, their average age being 57.4 years (36 to 75 years and the average weight 102.3 kg (75 to 130 kg. The failures of neck adapters were divided into 66% with small CCD of 130° and 60% with head lengths of L or larger. Assuming an average time to failure of 2.8 years, the cumulative failure rate was calculated with 2.4%. Methods A series of adapter failures of titanium alloy modular neck adapters in combination with a titanium alloy modular short hip stem was investigated. For patients having received this particular implant combination risk factors were identified which were associated with the occurence of implant failure. A Kaplan-Meier survival-failure-analysis was conducted. The retrieved implants were analysed using microscopic and chemical methods. Modes of failure were simulated in biomechanical tests. Comparative tests included modular neck adapters made of titanium alloy and cobalt chrome alloy material. Results Retrieval examinations and biomechanical simulation revealed that primary micromotions initiated fretting within the modular tapered neck

FAILURE MODE AND EFFECT ANALYSIS (FMEA OF BUTTERFLY VALVE IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MUHAMMAD AMIRUL BIN YUSOF

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Butterfly valves are mostly used in various industries such as oil and gas plant. This valve operates with rotating motion using pneumatic system. Rotating actuator turns the disc either parallel or perpendicular to the flow. When the valve is fully open, the disc is rotated a quarter turn so that it allows free passage of the fluid and when fully closed, the disc rotated a quarter turns to block the fluid. The primary failure modes for valves are the valve leaks to environment through flanges, seals on the valve body, valve stem packing not properly protected, over tightened packing nuts, the valve cracks and leaks over the seat. To identify the failure of valve Failure Mode and Effects Analysis has been chosen. FMEA is the one of technique to perform failure analysis. It involves reviewing as many components to identify failure modes, and their causes and effects. For each component, the failure modes and their resulting effects on the rest of the system are recorded in a specific FMEA form. Risk priority number, severity, detection, occurrence are the factor determined in this studies. Risk priority number helps to find out the highest hazardous activities which need more attention than the other activity. The highest score of risk priority number in this research is seat. Action plan was proposed to reduce the risk priority number and so that potential failures also will be reduced.

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

Economic effectiveness of disease management programs: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, David S

2005-04-01

The economic effectiveness of disease management programs, which are designed to improve the clinical and economic outcomes for chronically ill individuals, has been evaluated extensively. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE and other published sources for the period covering January 1995 to September 2003. The search was limited to empirical articles that measured the direct economic outcomes for asthma, diabetes, and heart disease management programs. Of the 360 articles and presentations evaluated, only 67 met the selection criteria for meta-analysis, which included 32,041 subjects. Although some studies contained multiple measurements of direct economic outcomes, only one average effect size per study was included in the meta-analysis. Based on the studies included in the research, a meta-analysis provided a statistically significant answer to the question of whether disease management programs are economically effective. The magnitude of the observed average effect size for equally weighted studies was 0.311 (95% CI = 0.272-0.350). Statistically significant differences of effect sizes by study design, disease type and intensity of disease management program interventions were not found after a moderating variable, disease severity, was taken into consideration. The results suggest that disease management programs are more effective economically with severely ill enrollees and that chronic disease program interventions are most effective when coordinated with the overall level of disease severity. The findings can be generalized, which may assist health care policy makers and practitioners in addressing the issue of providing economically effective care for the growing number of individuals with chronic illness.

Geotechnical Failure of a Concrete Crown Wall on a Rubble Mound Breakwater Considering Sliding Failure and Rupture Failure of Foundation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiani, E.; Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1995-01-01

Sliding and rupture failure in the rubble mound are considered in this paper. In order to describe these failure modes the wave breaking forces have to be accounted for. Wave breaking forces on a crown wall are determined from Burcharth's wave force formula Burcharth (1992). Overtopping rates...... are calculated for a given design by Bradbury et al. (1988a,b) and compared to acceptable overtopping rates, prior to a determininstic design. The method of foundation stability analysis is presented by the example of a translation slip failure involving kinematically correct slip surfaces and failure zones...... in friction based soil. Rupture failure modes for a crown wall with a plane base and a crown wall with an extended leg on the seaward side will be formulated. The failure modes are described by limit state functions. This allows a deterministic analysis to be performed....

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Subsea Multiphase Pump Equipment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oluwatoyin Shobowale Kafayat

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Finding oil and gas reserves in deep/harsh environment with challenging reservoir and field conditions, subsea multiphase pumping benefits has found its way to provide solutions to these issues. Challenges such as failure issues that are still surging the industry and with the current practice of information hiding, this issues becomes even more difficult to tackle. Although, there are some joint industry projects which are only accessible to its members, still there is a need to have a clear understanding of these equipment groups so as to know which issues to focus attention on. A failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA is a potential first aid in understanding this equipment groups. A survey questionnaire/interview was conducted with the oil and gas operating company and equipment manufacturer based on the literature review. The results indicates that these equipment’s group are similar with its onshore counterpart, but the difference is the robustness built into the equipment internal subsystems for subsea applications. The results from the manufacturer perspectives indicates that Helico-axial multiphase pump have a mean time to failure of more than 10 years, twin-screw and electrical submersible pumps are still struggling with a mean time to failure of less than 5 years.

Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R

2007-01-01

.... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...

Reliability analysis of Markov history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Shijia; Zeng, Zhiguo; Cui, Lirong; Kang, Rui

2017-01-01

Markov history-dependent repairable systems refer to the Markov repairable systems in which some states are changeable and dependent on recent evolutional history of the system. In practice, many Markov history-dependent repairable systems are subjected to neglected failures, i.e., some failures do not affect system performances if they can be repaired promptly. In this paper, we develop a model based on the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to describe the history-dependent behavior and the effect of neglected failures on the Markov history-dependent repairable systems. Based on the developed model, instantaneous and steady-state availabilities are derived to characterize the reliability of the system. Four reliability-related time distributions, i.e., distribution for the k th working period, distribution for the k th failure period, distribution for the real working time in an effective working period, distribution for the neglected failure time in an effective working period, are also derived to provide a more comprehensive description of the system's reliability. Thanks to the power of the theory of aggregated stochastic processes, closed-form expressions are obtained for all the reliability indexes and time distributions. Finally, the developed indexes and analysis methods are demonstrated by a numerical example. - Highlights: • Markovian history-dependent repairable systems with neglected failures is modeled. • Aggregated stochastic processes are used to derive reliability indexes and time distributions. • Closed-form expressions are derived for the considered indexes and distributions.

Rooting out causes in failure analysis; Risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keith, Graeme

2010-07-01

The Deepwater Horizon disaster was a terrible reminder of the consequences of equipment failure on facilities operating in challenging environments. Thankfully catastrophes on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon are rare, but equipment failure is a daily occurrence on installations around the globe. The consequences range from short unexpected downtime, to a total stop on production. from a brief burst of flaring to lasting environmental damage and from the momentary discomfiture of a worker to incapability or death. (Author)

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

WE-H-BRC-02: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Liver Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rusu, I; Thomas, T; Roeske, J; Price, J; Perino, C; Surucu, M [Loyola University Chicago, Maywood, IL (United States); Mescioglu, I [Lewis University, Romeoville, IL (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To identify areas of improvement in our liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) program, using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Methods: A multidisciplinary group consisting of one physician, three physicists, one dosimetrist and two therapists was formed. A process map covering 10 major stages of the liver SBRT program from the initial diagnosis to post treatment follow-up was generated. A total of 102 failure modes, together with their causes and effects, were identified. The occurrence (O), severity (S) and lack of detectability (D) were independently scored. The ranking was done using the risk probability number (RPN) defined as the product of average O, S and D numbers for each mode. The scores were normalized to remove inter-observer variability, while preserving individual ranking order. Further, a correlation analysis on the overall agreement on rank order of all failure modes resulted in positive values for successive pairs of evaluators. The failure modes with the highest RPN value were considered for further investigation. Results: The average normalized RPN values for all modes were 39 with a range of 9 to 103. The FMEA analysis resulted in the identification of the top 10 critical failures modes as: Incorrect CT-MR registration, MR scan not performed in treatment position, patient movement between CBCT acquisition and treatment, daily IGRT QA not verified, incorrect or incomplete ITV delineation, OAR contours not verified, inaccurate normal liver effective dose (Veff) calculation, failure of bolus tracking for 4D CT scan, setup instructions not followed for treatment and plan evaluation metrics missed. Conclusion: The application of FMEA to our liver SBRT program led to the identification and possible improvement of areas affecting patient safety.

WE-H-BRC-02: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Liver Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rusu, I; Thomas, T; Roeske, J; Price, J; Perino, C; Surucu, M; Mescioglu, I

2016-01-01

Purpose: To identify areas of improvement in our liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) program, using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Methods: A multidisciplinary group consisting of one physician, three physicists, one dosimetrist and two therapists was formed. A process map covering 10 major stages of the liver SBRT program from the initial diagnosis to post treatment follow-up was generated. A total of 102 failure modes, together with their causes and effects, were identified. The occurrence (O), severity (S) and lack of detectability (D) were independently scored. The ranking was done using the risk probability number (RPN) defined as the product of average O, S and D numbers for each mode. The scores were normalized to remove inter-observer variability, while preserving individual ranking order. Further, a correlation analysis on the overall agreement on rank order of all failure modes resulted in positive values for successive pairs of evaluators. The failure modes with the highest RPN value were considered for further investigation. Results: The average normalized RPN values for all modes were 39 with a range of 9 to 103. The FMEA analysis resulted in the identification of the top 10 critical failures modes as: Incorrect CT-MR registration, MR scan not performed in treatment position, patient movement between CBCT acquisition and treatment, daily IGRT QA not verified, incorrect or incomplete ITV delineation, OAR contours not verified, inaccurate normal liver effective dose (Veff) calculation, failure of bolus tracking for 4D CT scan, setup instructions not followed for treatment and plan evaluation metrics missed. Conclusion: The application of FMEA to our liver SBRT program led to the identification and possible improvement of areas affecting patient safety.

The Criteria for Determining the Business Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luminiţa TULEAŞCĂ

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The business failure represents a current problem in any economic and social context and, for this reason, the legislator has been concerned with the regulation of the criteria based on which to accurately determine the failure of a business man when the case. The liquidity test and the balance sheet test, or the insolvency and insolvability are the criteria for determining the business failure usually materialized by undergoing the bankruptcy procedure. The legislator’s option for one or another of these criteria represents a structural option depending on the legal culture of each state however, considering the economic causes and effects of the insolvability and insolvency, that tends to remove the unilateral, exclusivist options. This paper illustrates significant option differences between the criteria for determining the business failure in the member states of the European Union which is the most used criterion and, if these criteria can be equally used in the banking and insurance sector. Last but not least, the paper illustrates the meanings of insolvency and insolvability in different matters and different laws and the need to eliminate the reserve that the Romanian doctrine manifests towards the insolvability concept as a cause for bankruptcy.

Lecture notes: meantime to failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanlen, R.C.

1976-01-01

A method is presented which affects the Quality Assurance Engineer's place in management decision making by giving him a working parameter to base sound engineering and management decisions. The theory used in Reliability Engineering to determine the mean-time-to-failure of a component or system is reviewed. The method presented derives the probability density function for the parameter of the exponential distribution. The exponential distribution is commonly used by industry to determine the reliability of a component or system when the failure rate is assumed to be constant. Some examples of N Reactor performance data are used. To be specific: The ball system data with 4.9 x 10 6 unit hours of service and 7 individual failures indicates a demonstrated 98.8 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period, and the diesel starts data with 7.2 x 10 5 unit hours of service and 1 failure indicates a demonstrated 94.4 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period

FEAT - FAILURE ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS TOOL (UNIX VERSION)

Science.gov (United States)

Pack, G.

1994-01-01

The Failure Environment Analysis Tool, FEAT, enables people to see and better understand the effects of failures in a system. FEAT uses digraph models to determine what will happen to a system if a set of failure events occurs and to identify the possible causes of a selected set of failures. Failures can be user-selected from either engineering schematic or digraph model graphics, and the effects or potential causes of the failures will be color highlighted on the same schematic or model graphic. As a design tool, FEAT helps design reviewers understand exactly what redundancies have been built into a system and where weaknesses need to be protected or designed out. A properly developed digraph will reflect how a system functionally degrades as failures accumulate. FEAT is also useful in operations, where it can help identify causes of failures after they occur. Finally, FEAT is valuable both in conceptual development and as a training aid, since digraphs can identify weaknesses in scenarios as well as hardware. Digraphs models for use with FEAT are generally built with the Digraph Editor, a Macintosh-based application which is distributed with FEAT. The Digraph Editor was developed specifically with the needs of FEAT users in mind and offers several time-saving features. It includes an icon toolbox of components required in a digraph model and a menu of functions for manipulating these components. It also offers FEAT users a convenient way to attach a formatted textual description to each digraph node. FEAT needs these node descriptions in order to recognize nodes and propagate failures within the digraph. FEAT users store their node descriptions in modelling tables using any word processing or spreadsheet package capable of saving data to an ASCII text file. From within the Digraph Editor they can then interactively attach a properly formatted textual description to each node in a digraph. Once descriptions are attached to them, a selected set of nodes can be

Failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Yu Junyi; Zheng Yuhua; Yi Shangfeng

1999-01-01

A field failure analysis of computerized numerical control (CNC) lathes is described. Field failure data was collected over a period of two years on approximately 80 CNC lathes. A coding system to code failure data was devised and a failure analysis data bank of CNC lathes was established. The failure position and subsystem, failure mode and cause were analyzed to indicate the weak subsystem of a CNC lathe. Also, failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes was analyzed by fuzzy multicriteria comprehensive evaluation

Failure mode and effect analysis: improving intensive care unit risk management processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Askari, Roohollah; Shafii, Milad; Rafiei, Sima; Abolhassani, Mohammad Sadegh; Salarikhah, Elaheh

2017-04-18

Purpose Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a practical tool to evaluate risks, discover failures in a proactive manner and propose corrective actions to reduce or eliminate potential risks. The purpose of this paper is to apply FMEA technique to examine the hazards associated with the process of service delivery in intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Yazd, Iran. Design/methodology/approach This was a before-after study conducted between March 2013 and December 2014. By forming a FMEA team, all potential hazards associated with ICU services - their frequency and severity - were identified. Then risk priority number was calculated for each activity as an indicator representing high priority areas that need special attention and resource allocation. Findings Eight failure modes with highest priority scores including endotracheal tube defect, wrong placement of endotracheal tube, EVD interface, aspiration failure during suctioning, chest tube failure, tissue injury and deep vein thrombosis were selected for improvement. Findings affirmed that improvement strategies were generally satisfying and significantly decreased total failures. Practical implications Application of FMEA in ICUs proved to be effective in proactively decreasing the risk of failures and corrected the control measures up to acceptable levels in all eight areas of function. Originality/value Using a prospective risk assessment approach, such as FMEA, could be beneficial in dealing with potential failures through proposing preventive actions in a proactive manner. The method could be used as a tool for healthcare continuous quality improvement so that the method identifies both systemic and human errors, and offers practical advice to deal effectively with them.

Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with multiple functional dependence groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Peng, Rui; Pan, Zhusheng

2017-01-01

A phased-mission system (PMS) involves multiple, consecutive, non-overlapping phases of operation. The system structure function and component failure behavior in a PMS can change from phase to phase, posing big challenges to the system reliability analysis. Further complicating the problem is the functional dependence (FDEP) behavior where the failure of certain component(s) causes other component(s) to become unusable or inaccessible or isolated. Previous studies have shown that FDEP can cause competitions between failure propagation and failure isolation in the time domain. While such competing failure effects have been well addressed in single-phase systems, only little work has focused on PMSs with a restrictive assumption that a single FDEP group exists in one phase of the mission. Many practical systems (e.g., computer systems and networks), however may involve multiple FDEP groups during the mission. Moreover, different FDEP groups can be dependent due to sharing some common components; they may appear in a single phase or multiple phases. This paper makes new contributions by modeling and analyzing reliability of PMSs subject to multiple FDEP groups through a Markov chain-based methodology. Propagated failures with both global and selective effects are considered. Four case studies are presented to demonstrate application of the proposed method. - Highlights: • Reliability of phased-mission systems subject to competing failure propagation and isolation effects is modeled. • Multiple independent or dependent functional dependence groups are considered. • Propagated failures with global effects and selective effects are studied. • Four case studies demonstrate generality and application of the proposed Markov-based method.

The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiming

1992-01-01

A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, V. G.; Kiseleva, T. V.

2018-05-01

In the paper the features of the analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise are considered. The purpose of the study is to improve the system of environmental and economic analysis at the enterprise for more accurate forecasting of its main environmental and economic indicators. The study of the main approaches to the implementation of environmental and economic analysis based on the corresponding systems of indicators with identification of the most significant factors was carried out. The main result of the study is the choice of a system for analyzing the environmental and economic indicators, maximally oriented to a specific enterprise, taking into account its production specific features. The practical significance of the study consists in the selection of an adequate system of indicators at enterprises to improve the effectiveness from preparation of an environmentally safe management decision.

Failure Forewarning in NPP Equipment NERI2000-109 Final Project Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hively, LM

2004-03-26

The objective of this project is forewarning of machine failures in critical equipment at next-generation nuclear power plants (NPP). Test data were provided by two collaborating institutions: Duke Engineering and Services (first project year), and the Pennsylvania State University (Applied Research Laboratory) during the second and third project years. New nonlinear methods were developed and applied successfully to extract forewarning trends from process-indicative, time-serial data for timely, condition-based maintenance. Anticipation of failures in critical equipment at next-generation NPP will improve the scheduling of maintenance activities to minimize safety concerns, unscheduled non-productive downtime, and collateral damage due to unexpected failures. This approach provides significant economic benefit, and is expected to improve public acceptance of nuclear power. The approach is a multi-tiered, model-independent, and data-driven analysis that uses ORNL's novel nonlinear method to extract forewarning of machine failures from appropriate data. The first tier of the analysis provides a robust choice for the process-indicative data. The second tier rejects data of inadequate quality. The third tier removes signal artifacts that would otherwise confound the analysis, while retaining the relevant nonlinear dynamics. The fourth tier converts the artifact-filtered time-serial data into a geometric representation, that is then transformed to a discrete distribution function (DF). This method allows for noisy, finite-length datasets. The fifth tier obtains dissimilarity measures (DM) between the nominal-state DF and subsequent test-state DFs. Forewarning of a machine failure is indicated by several successive occurrences of the DM above a threshold, or by a statistically significant trend in the DM. This paradigm yields robust nonlinear signatures of degradation and its progression, allowing earlier and more accurate detection of the machine failure.

Construct validity of the Heart Failure Screening Tool (Heart-FaST) to identify heart failure patients at risk of poor self-care: Rasch analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Nicholas A; Ski, Chantal F; McEvedy, Samantha M; Thompson, David R; Cameron, Jan

2018-02-14

The aim of this study was to psychometrically evaluate the Heart Failure Screening Tool (Heart-FaST) via: (1) examination of internal construct validity; (2) testing of scale function in accordance with design; and (3) recommendation for change/s, if items are not well adjusted, to improve psychometric credential. Self-care is vital to the management of heart failure. The Heart-FaST may provide a prospective assessment of risk, regarding the likelihood that patients with heart failure will engage in self-care. Psychometric validation of the Heart-FaST using Rasch analysis. The Heart-FaST was administered to 135 patients (median age = 68, IQR = 59-78 years; 105 males) enrolled in a multidisciplinary heart failure management program. The Heart-FaST is a nurse-administered tool for screening patients with HF at risk of poor self-care. A Rasch analysis of responses was conducted which tested data against Rasch model expectations, including whether items serve as unbiased, non-redundant indicators of risk and measure a single construct and that rating scales operate as intended. The results showed that data met Rasch model expectations after rescoring or deleting items due to poor discrimination, disordered thresholds, differential item functioning, or response dependence. There was no evidence of multidimensionality which supports the use of total scores from Heart-FaST as indicators of risk. Aggregate scores from this modified screening tool rank heart failure patients according to their "risk of poor self-care" demonstrating that the Heart-FaST items constitute a meaningful scale to identify heart failure patients at risk of poor engagement in heart failure self-care. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An economic analysis of communal goat production.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

2004-03-01

The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

An economic analysis of communal goat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P.J. Sebei

2004-06-01

Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different

Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

OpenAIRE

Clark, Roger Nelson

1987-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative ma...

Failure modes and effects criticality analysis and accelerated life testing of LEDs for medical applications

Science.gov (United States)

Sawant, M.; Christou, A.

2012-12-01

While use of LEDs in Fiber Optics and lighting applications is common, their use in medical diagnostic applications is not very extensive. Since the precise value of light intensity will be used to interpret patient results, understanding failure modes [1-4] is very important. We used the Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) tool to identify the critical failure modes of the LEDs. FMECA involves identification of various failure modes, their effects on the system (LED optical output in this context), their frequency of occurrence, severity and the criticality of the failure modes. The competing failure modes/mechanisms were degradation of: active layer (where electron-hole recombination occurs to emit light), electrodes (provides electrical contact to the semiconductor chip), Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) surface layer (used to improve current spreading and light extraction), plastic encapsulation (protective polymer layer) and packaging failures (bond wires, heat sink separation). A FMECA table is constructed and the criticality is calculated by estimating the failure effect probability (β), failure mode ratio (α), failure rate (λ) and the operating time. Once the critical failure modes were identified, the next steps were generation of prior time to failure distribution and comparing with our accelerated life test data. To generate the prior distributions, data and results from previous investigations were utilized [5-33] where reliability test results of similar LEDs were reported. From the graphs or tabular data, we extracted the time required for the optical power output to reach 80% of its initial value. This is our failure criterion for the medical diagnostic application. Analysis of published data for different LED materials (AlGaInP, GaN, AlGaAs), the Semiconductor Structures (DH, MQW) and the mode of testing (DC, Pulsed) was carried out. The data was categorized according to the materials system and LED structure such as AlGaInP-DH-DC, Al

Failure mode and effect analysis-based quality assurance for dynamic MLC tracking systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sawant, Amit; Dieterich, Sonja; Svatos, Michelle; Keall, Paul [Stanford University, Stanford, California 94394 (United States); Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California 94304 (United States); Stanford University, Stanford, California 94394 (United States)

2010-12-15

Purpose: To develop and implement a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA)-based commissioning and quality assurance framework for dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) tumor tracking systems. Methods: A systematic failure mode and effect analysis was performed for a prototype real-time tumor tracking system that uses implanted electromagnetic transponders for tumor position monitoring and a DMLC for real-time beam adaptation. A detailed process tree of DMLC tracking delivery was created and potential tracking-specific failure modes were identified. For each failure mode, a risk probability number (RPN) was calculated from the product of the probability of occurrence, the severity of effect, and the detectibility of the failure. Based on the insights obtained from the FMEA, commissioning and QA procedures were developed to check (i) the accuracy of coordinate system transformation, (ii) system latency, (iii) spatial and dosimetric delivery accuracy, (iv) delivery efficiency, and (v) accuracy and consistency of system response to error conditions. The frequency of testing for each failure mode was determined from the RPN value. Results: Failures modes with RPN{>=}125 were recommended to be tested monthly. Failure modes with RPN<125 were assigned to be tested during comprehensive evaluations, e.g., during commissioning, annual quality assurance, and after major software/hardware upgrades. System latency was determined to be {approx}193 ms. The system showed consistent and accurate response to erroneous conditions. Tracking accuracy was within 3%-3 mm gamma (100% pass rate) for sinusoidal as well as a wide variety of patient-derived respiratory motions. The total time taken for monthly QA was {approx}35 min, while that taken for comprehensive testing was {approx}3.5 h. Conclusions: FMEA proved to be a powerful and flexible tool to develop and implement a quality management (QM) framework for DMLC tracking. The authors conclude that the use of FMEA-based QM ensures

Failure mode and effect analysis-based quality assurance for dynamic MLC tracking systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawant, Amit; Dieterich, Sonja; Svatos, Michelle; Keall, Paul

2010-12-01

To develop and implement a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA)-based commissioning and quality assurance framework for dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) tumor tracking systems. A systematic failure mode and effect analysis was performed for a prototype real-time tumor tracking system that uses implanted electromagnetic transponders for tumor position monitoring and a DMLC for real-time beam adaptation. A detailed process tree of DMLC tracking delivery was created and potential tracking-specific failure modes were identified. For each failure mode, a risk probability number (RPN) was calculated from the product of the probability of occurrence, the severity of effect, and the detectibility of the failure. Based on the insights obtained from the FMEA, commissioning and QA procedures were developed to check (i) the accuracy of coordinate system transformation, (ii) system latency, (iii) spatial and dosimetric delivery accuracy, (iv) delivery efficiency, and (v) accuracy and consistency of system response to error conditions. The frequency of testing for each failure mode was determined from the RPN value. Failures modes with RPN > or = 125 were recommended to be tested monthly. Failure modes with RPN < 125 were assigned to be tested during comprehensive evaluations, e.g., during commissioning, annual quality assurance, and after major software/hardware upgrades. System latency was determined to be approximately 193 ms. The system showed consistent and accurate response to erroneous conditions. Tracking accuracy was within 3%-3 mm gamma (100% pass rate) for sinusoidal as well as a wide variety of patient-derived respiratory motions. The total time taken for monthly QA was approximately 35 min, while that taken for comprehensive testing was approximately 3.5 h. FMEA proved to be a powerful and flexible tool to develop and implement a quality management (QM) framework for DMLC tracking. The authors conclude that the use of FMEA-based QM ensures efficient allocation

Failure mode and effect analysis-based quality assurance for dynamic MLC tracking systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawant, Amit; Dieterich, Sonja; Svatos, Michelle; Keall, Paul

2010-01-01

Purpose: To develop and implement a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA)-based commissioning and quality assurance framework for dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) tumor tracking systems. Methods: A systematic failure mode and effect analysis was performed for a prototype real-time tumor tracking system that uses implanted electromagnetic transponders for tumor position monitoring and a DMLC for real-time beam adaptation. A detailed process tree of DMLC tracking delivery was created and potential tracking-specific failure modes were identified. For each failure mode, a risk probability number (RPN) was calculated from the product of the probability of occurrence, the severity of effect, and the detectibility of the failure. Based on the insights obtained from the FMEA, commissioning and QA procedures were developed to check (i) the accuracy of coordinate system transformation, (ii) system latency, (iii) spatial and dosimetric delivery accuracy, (iv) delivery efficiency, and (v) accuracy and consistency of system response to error conditions. The frequency of testing for each failure mode was determined from the RPN value. Results: Failures modes with RPN≥125 were recommended to be tested monthly. Failure modes with RPN<125 were assigned to be tested during comprehensive evaluations, e.g., during commissioning, annual quality assurance, and after major software/hardware upgrades. System latency was determined to be ∼193 ms. The system showed consistent and accurate response to erroneous conditions. Tracking accuracy was within 3%-3 mm gamma (100% pass rate) for sinusoidal as well as a wide variety of patient-derived respiratory motions. The total time taken for monthly QA was ∼35 min, while that taken for comprehensive testing was ∼3.5 h. Conclusions: FMEA proved to be a powerful and flexible tool to develop and implement a quality management (QM) framework for DMLC tracking. The authors conclude that the use of FMEA-based QM ensures efficient allocation

Analysis of Moderator System Failure Accidents by Using New Method for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Dongsik; Kim, Jonghyun; Cho, Cheonhwey [Atomic Creative Technology Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sungmin [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

To reconfirm the safety of moderator system failure accidents, the safety analysis by using the reactor physics code, RFSP-IST, coupled with the thermal hydraulics code, CATHENA is performed additionally. In the present paper, the newly developed analysis method is briefly described and the results obtained from the moderator system failure accident simulations for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 reactor by using the new method are summarized. The safety analysis of the moderator system failure accidents for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 reactor was carried out by using the new code system, i. e., CATHENA and RFSP-IST, instead of the non-IST old codes, namely, SMOKIN G-2 and MODSTBOIL. The analysis results by using the new method revealed as same with the results by using the old method that the fuel integrity is warranted because the localized power peak remained well below the limits and, most importantly, the reactor operation enters into the self-shutdown mode due to the substantial loss of moderator D{sub 2}O inventory from the moderator system. In the analysis results obtained by using the old method, it was predicted that the ROP trip conditions occurred for the transient cases which are also studied in the present paper. But, in the new method, it was found that the ROP trip conditions did not occur. Consequently, in the safety analysis performed additionally by using the new method, the safety of moderator system failure accidents was reassured. In the future, the new analysis method by using the IST codes instead of the non-IST old codes for the moderator system failure accidents is strongly recommended.