WorldWideScience

Sample records for failure economic analysis

  1. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  2. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  3. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  4. Failure Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iorio, A.F.; Crespi, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    After ten years of operation at the Atucha I Nuclear Power Station a gear belonging to a pressurized heavy water reactor refuelling machine, failed. The gear box was used to operate the inlet-outlet heavy-water valve of the machine. Visual examination of the gear device showed an absence of lubricant and that several gear teeth were broken at the root. Motion was transmitted with a speed-reducing device with controlled adjustable times in order to produce a proper fitness of the valve closure. The aim of this paper is to discuss the results of the gear failure analysis in order to recommend the proper solution to prevent further failures. (Author)

  5. Hospital costs for treatment of acute heart failure: economic analysis of the REVIVE II study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lissovoy, Greg; Fraeman, Kathy; Teerlink, John R; Mullahy, John; Salon, Jeff; Sterz, Raimund; Durtschi, Amy; Padley, Robert J

    2010-04-01

    Acute heart failure (AHF) is the leading cause of hospital admission among older Americans. The Randomized EValuation of Intravenous Levosimendan Efficacy (REVIVE II) trial compared patients randomly assigned to a single infusion of levosimendan (levo) or placebo (SOC), each in addition to local standard treatments for AHF. We report an economic analysis of REVIVE II from the hospital perspective. REVIVE II enrolled patients (N = 600) hospitalized for treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) who remained dyspneic at rest despite treatment with intravenous diuretics. Case report forms documented index hospital treatment (drug administration, procedures, days of treatment by care unit), as well as subsequent hospital and emergency department admissions during follow-up ending 90 days from date of randomization. These data were used to impute cost of admission based on an econometric cost function derived from >100,000 ADHF hospital billing records selected per REVIVE II inclusion criteria. Index admission mean length of stay (LOS) was shorter for the levo group compared with standard of care (SOC) (7.03 vs 8.96 days, P = 0.008) although intensive care unit (ICU)/cardiac care unit (CCU) days were similar (levo 2.88, SOC 3.22, P = 0.63). Excluding cost for levo, predicted mean (median) cost for the index admission was levo US $13,590 (9,458), SOC $19,021 (10,692) with a difference of $5,431 (1,234) favoring levo (P = 0.04). During follow-up through end of study day 90, no significant differences were observed in numbers of hospital admissions (P = 0.67), inpatient days (P = 0.81) or emergency department visits (P = 0.41). Cost-effectiveness was performed with a REVIVE-II sub-set conforming to current labeling, which excluded patients with low baseline blood pressure. Assuming an average price for levo in countries where currently approved, there was better than 50% likelihood that levo was both cost-saving and improved survival. Likelihood that levo would

  6. Causes analysis on the failure of government environmental responsibility—Based on the perspective of law and economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fa, L. N.

    2017-11-01

    As the important Environmental Interests of Subjects, government behooves to undertake the corresponding responsibility of Pollution Control and Environmental Protection. The current situations in our country, however, appear as government environmental responsibility failure. Based on the analysis of law and economics, this article reaches the conclusion through game analysis, principle-agency relationship and utility theory that the prisoners dilemma of environmental interest game between government and enterprise, and the inherent defect of the principal-agency relationship between central government and local government are the inherent causes of government environmental responsibility failure. Many officials tends to graft and corrupt to maximum their own benefit, thus leading to the government failure among environmental pollution treatment and the environmental responsibility to undertake.

  7. The costs of treating acute heart failure: an economic analysis of the SURVIVE trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lissovoy, Gregory; Fraeman, Kathy; Salon, Jeff; Chay Woodward, Tatia; Sterz, Raimund

    2008-01-01

    To estimate the incremental cost per life year gained with levosimendan relative to dobutamine in treatment of acute heart failure based on the Survival of Patients with Acute Heart Failure in Need of Intravenous Inotropic Support (SURVIVE) trial. SURVIVE enrolled 1,327 patients (levosimendan 664, dobutamine 663) from nine nations with 180-day survival from date of randomisation as the primary endpoint. Hospital resource utilisation was determined via clinical case reports. Unit costs were derived from hospital payment schedules for France, Germany and the UK, and represent a third-party payer perspective. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed for a subset of the SURVIVE patient population selected in accordance with current levosimendan labeling. Mortality in the levosimendan group was 26 versus 28% for dobutamine (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.74-1.13, p=0.40). Initial hospitalisation length of stay was identical (levosimendan 14.4, dobutamine 14.5, p=0.98). Slightly lower rates of readmission were observed for levosimendan relative to dobutamine at 31 (p=0.13) and 180 days (p=0.23). Mean costs excluding study drug were equivalent for the index admission (levosimendan euro5,060, dobutamine euro4,952; p=0.91) and complete episode (levosimendan euro5,396, dobutamine euro5,275; p=0.93). At an acquisition cost of euro600 per vial, there is at least 50% likelihood that levosimendan is cost effective relative to dobutamine if willingness to pay is equal to or greater than euro15,000 per life year gained.

  8. Failure of Passive Immune Transfer in Calves: A Meta-Analysis on the Consequences and Assessment of the Economic Impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Raboisson

    Full Text Available Low colostrum intake at birth results in the failure of passive transfer (FPT due to the inadequate ingestion of colostral immunoglobulins (Ig. FPT is associated with an increased risk of mortality and decreased health and longevity. Despite the known management practices associated with low FPT, it remains an important issue in the field. Neither a quantitative analysis of FPT consequences nor an assessment of its total cost are available. To address this point, a meta-analysis on the adjusted associations between FPT and its outcomes was first performed. Then, the total costs of FPT in European systems were calculated using a stochastic method with adjusted values as the input parameters. The adjusted risks (and 95% confidence intervals for mortality, bovine respiratory disease, diarrhoea and overall morbidity in the case of FPT were 2.12 (1.43-3.13, 1.75 (1.50-2.03, 1.51 (1.05-2.17 and 1.91 (1.63-2.24, respectively. The mean (and 95% prediction interval total costs per calf with FPT were estimated to be €60 (€10-109 and €80 (€20-139 for dairy and beef, respectively. As a result of the double-step stochastic method, the proposed economic estimation constitutes the first estimate available for FPT. The results are presented in a way that facilitates their use in the field and, with limited effort, combines the cost of each contributor to increase the applicability of the economic assessment to the situations farm-advisors may face. The present economic estimates are also an important tool to evaluate the profitability of measures that aim to improve colostrum intake and FPT prevention.

  9. To Green or Not to Green: A Political, Economic and Social Analysis for the Past Failure of Green Logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Klumpp

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of green logistics has thus far failed. For example, the share of greenhouse gas emissions by the transportation and logistics sector in Europe rose from 16.6% in 1990 to 24.3% in 2012. This article analyzes the reasons behind this failure by drawing on political, economic and business as well as social motivations and examples. At the core of this analysis are the established theorems of the Jevons paradox and the median voter (Black, Downs in combination with time-distorted preferences of voters and consumers. Adding to the hurdles of green logistics are the problems of short-term political programs and decisions versus long-term business investments in transportation and logistics. Two cases from Germany are outlined regarding this political “meddling through” with a recent 2015 truck toll decision and the support for electric trucks and vehicles. Finally, the article proposes two ways forward: public control and restriction of carbon raw materials (coal, oil, as well as public investment in low-emission transport infrastructure or biofuels as the more feasible and likely alternative.

  10. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  11. Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-based program designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease management programs in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Shelby D; Neilson, Matthew P; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H; Polsky, Daniel E; Graham, Felicia L; Bowers, Margaret T; Paul, Sara C; Granger, Bradi B; Schulman, Kevin A; Whellan, David J; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C

    2015-11-01

    Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics; use of evidence-based medications; and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model. Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying Seattle Heart Failure Model scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort study designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. The Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Isogeometric failure analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoosel, C.V.; Scott, M.A.; Borden, M.J.; Borst, de R.; Hughes, T.J.R.; Mueller-Hoeppe, D.; Loehnert, S.; Reese, S.

    2011-01-01

    Isogeometric analysis is a versatile tool for failure analysis. On the one hand, the excellent control over the inter-element continuity conditions enables a natural incorporation of continuum constitutive relations that incorporate higher-order strain gradients, as in gradient plasticity or damage.

  13. Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-03-01

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U 3 O 8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  14. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  15. Enhanced external counterpulsation for the treatment of stable angina and heart failure: a systematic review and economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, C; McDaid, C; Suekarran, S; Hawkins, N; Claxton, K; Light, K; Chester, M; Cleland, J; Woolacott, N; Sculpher, M

    2009-04-01

    To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP) compared with usual care and placebo for refractory stable angina and heart failure, and to undertake analyses of the expected value of information to assess the potential value of future research on EECP. Major electronic databases were searched between November 2007 and March 2008. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken and a decision model developed to compare EECP treatment with no treatment in adults with chronic stable angina. Five studies were included in the review. In the Multicenter Study of Enhanced External Counterpulsation (MUST-EECP), time to greater than or equal to 1-mm ST segment depression (exercise-induced ischaemia) was statistically significantly improved in the EECP group compared with the control group (sham EECP), mean difference (MD) 41 seconds [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.10-73.90]. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the EECP and control groups in the change in exercise duration from baseline to end of treatment, self-reported angina episodes or daily nitroglycerin use, and the clinical significance of the limited benefits was unclear. There was also a lack of data on long-term outcomes. There were more withdrawals due to adverse events in the EECP group than in the control group, as well as a greater proportion of patients with adverse events [relative risk (RR) 2.13, 95% CI 1.35-3.38]. The three non-randomised studies compared EECP with elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and usual care. There was a high risk of selection bias in all three studies and the results should be treated with considerable caution. The study comparing an EECP registry with a PCI registry reported similar 1-year all-cause mortality in both groups. In the Prospective Evaluation of EECP in Congestive Heart Failure (PEECH) trial, patients with heart failure were randomised to EECP or to usual care

  16. Effect of Component Failures on Economics of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lubin, Barry T. [Univ. of Hartford, West Hartford, CT (United States)

    2012-02-02

    This report describes an applied research program to assess the realistic costs of grid connected photovoltaic (PV) installations. A Board of Advisors was assembled that included management from the regional electric power utilities, as well as other participants from companies that work in the electric power industry. Although the program started with the intention of addressing effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) for utility-owned photovoltaic installations, results from the literature study and recommendations from the Board of Advisors led investigators to the conclusion that obtaining effective data for this analysis would be difficult, if not impossible. The effort was then re-focused on assessing the realistic costs and economic valuations of grid-connected PV installations. The 17 kW PV installation on the University of Hartford's Lincoln Theater was used as one source of actual data. The change in objective required a more technically oriented group. The re-organized working group (changes made due to the need for more technically oriented participants) made site visits to medium-sized PV installations in Connecticut with the objective of developing sources of operating histories. An extensive literature review helped to focus efforts in several technical and economic subjects. The objective of determining the consequences of component failures on both generation and economic returns required three analyses. The first was a Monte-Carlo-based simulation model for failure occurrences and the resulting downtime. Published failure data, though limited, was used to verify the results. A second model was developed to predict the reduction in or loss of electrical generation related to the downtime due to these failures. Finally, a comprehensive economic analysis, including these failures, was developed to determine realistic net present values of installed PV arrays. Two types of societal benefits were explored, with quantitative valuations developed

  17. Economic and Performance Analysis of Gear Box Failures. Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-07-236

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO, USA is forming a collaborative within the wind energy industry to address reliability issues on wind turbines. The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), leading the collaborative effort, will allow gearbox manufacturers, bearing manufacturers, wind turbine owner/operators, and wind turbine manufacturers to team up for joint projects that address specific issues regarding design and reliability of wind turbine gearboxes. The primary means of investigation will be through full scale testing and analysis of actual gearboxes, both in the field and in the NREL 2.5 MW dynamometer test facility. These teams would contribute resources into a campaign that is intended to serve the mutual interests of a majority of the wind and gearbox industry stakeholders in addition to the specific project team objectives. that address specific issues regarding design and reliability of wind turbine gearboxes. The primary means of investigation will be through full scale testing and analysis of actual gearboxes, both in the field and in the NREL 2.5 MW dynamometer test facility. These teams would contribute resources into a campaign that is intended to serve the mutual interests of a majority of the wind and gearbox industry stakeholders in addition to the specific project team objectives.

  18. Lower head failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rempe, J.L.; Thinnes, G.L.; Allison, C.M.; Cronenberg, A.W.

    1991-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a lower vessel head research program to investigate plausible modes of reactor vessel failure in order to determine (a) which modes have the greatest likelihood of occurrence during a severe accident and (b) the range of core debris and accident conditions that lead to these failures. This paper presents the methodology and preliminary results of an investigation of reactor designs and thermodynamic conditions using analytic closed-form approximations to assess the important governing parameters in non-dimensional form. Preliminary results illustrate the importance of vessel and tube geometrical parameters, material properties, and external boundary conditions on predicting vessel failure. Thermal analyses indicate that steady-state temperature distributions will occur in the vessel within several hours, although the exact time is dependent upon vessel thickness. In-vessel tube failure is governed by the tube-to-debris mass ratio within the lower head, where most penetrations are predicted to fail if surrounded by molten debris. Melt penetration distance is dependent upon the effective flow diameter of the tube. Molten debris is predicted to penetrate through tubes with a larger effective flow diameter, such as a boiling water reactor (BWR) drain nozzle. Ex-vessel tube failure for depressurized reactor vessels is predicted to be more likely for a BWR drain nozzle penetration because of its larger effective diameter. At high pressures (between ∼0.1 MPa and ∼12 MPa) ex-vessel tube rupture becomes a dominant failure mechanism, although tube ejection dominates control rod guide tube failure at lower temperatures. However, tube ejection and tube rupture predictions are sensitive to the vessel and tube radial gap size and material coefficients of thermal expansion

  19. Lessons learned from failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le May, I.

    2006-01-01

    Failure analysis can be a very useful tool to designers and operators of plant and equipment. It is not simply something that is done for lawyers and insurance companies, but is a tool from which lessons can be learned and by means of which the 'breed' can be improved. In this presentation, several failure investigations that have contributed to understanding will be presented. Specifically, the following cases will be discussed: 1) A fire at a refinery that occurred in a desulphurization unit. 2) The failure of a pipeline before it was even put into operation. 3) Failures in locomotive axles that took place during winter operation. The refinery fire was initially blamed on defective Type 321 seamless stainless steel tubing, but there were conflicting views between 'experts' involved as to the mechanism of failure and the writer was called upon to make an in-depth study. This showed that there were a variety of failure mechanism involved, including high temperature fracture, environmentally-induced cracking and possible manufacturing defects. The unraveling of the failure sequence is described and illustrated. The failure of an oil transmission was discovered when the line was pressure tested some months after it had been installed and before it was put into service. Repairs were made and failure occurred in another place upon the next pressure test being conducted. After several more repairs had been made the line was abandoned and a lawsuit was commenced on the basis that the steel was defective. An investigation disclosed that the material was sensitive to embrittlement and the causes of this were determined. As a result, changes were made in the microstructural control of the product to avoid similar problems in future. A series of axle failures occurred in diesel electric locomotives during winter. An investigation was made to determine the nature of the failures which were not by classical fatigue, nor did they correspond to published illustrations of Cu

  20. Failure rate analysis using GLIMMIX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, L.M.; Hemphill, G.M.; Martz, H.F.

    1998-01-01

    This paper illustrates use of a recently developed SAS macro, GLIMMIX, for implementing an analysis suggested by Wolfinger and O'Connell (1993) in modeling failure count data with random as well as fixed factor effects. Interest in this software tool arose from consideration of modernizing the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC), developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the early 1980's by Martz, Beckman and McInteer (1982). FRAC is a FORTRAN program developed to analyze Poisson distributed failure count data as a log-linear model, possibly with random as well as fixed effects. These statistical modeling assumptions are a special case of generalized linear mixed models, identified as GLMM in the current statistics literature. In the nearly 15 years since FRAC was developed, there have been considerable advances in computing capability, statistical methodology and available statistical software tools allowing worthwhile consideration of the tasks of modernizing FRAC. In this paper, the approaches to GLMM estimation implemented in GLIMMIX and in FRAC are described and a comparison of results for the two approaches is made with data on catastrophic time-dependent pump failures from a report by Martz and Whiteman (1984). Additionally, statistical and graphical model diagnostics are suggested and illustrated with the GLIMMIX analysis results

  1. The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colander, David; Föllmer, Hans; Haas, Armin

    The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in economics....... We trace the deeper roots of this failure to the profession's focus on models that, by design, disregard key elements driving outcomes in real-world markets. The economics profession has failed in communicating the limitations, weaknesses, and even dangers of its preferred models to the public...

  2. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  3. Failure analysis: Status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, R.E.; Soden, J.M.; Henderson, C.L.

    1995-01-01

    Failure analysis is a critical element in the integrated circuit manufacturing industry. This paper reviews the changing role of failure analysis and describes major techniques employed in the industry today. Several advanced failure analysis techniques that meet the challenges imposed by advancements in integrated circuit technology are described and their applications are discussed. Future trends in failure analysis needed to keep pace with the continuing advancements in integrated circuit technology are anticipated

  4. Global Financial and Economic Crisis and the EU Economic Governance Failure – Evidence From Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Monica Oehler-Șincai

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The process of public sector restructuring, known in the economic literature as the New Public Management (NPM, came to a deadlock as the global financial and economic crisis broke out in 2008. The expansion of cheap credit, market dereglementation and asset securitization, speculative bubbles, the mixture of euphoria, greed and even naivety and ignorance of the economic players outlined an international financial system which was not subordinated any more to the real economy, but to the own principles, similar to Ponzi schemes or casino rules (Posner, 2011, Kindleberger and Aliber, 2011, Rajan, 2010, Stiglitz, 2010, Roubini and Mihm, 2010. All these generated, at global level, the deepest recession after the Great Depression. The anti-crisis measures came without delay, but they did not produce the expected results. At the Euro Zone level, an almost immediate and direct effect of the crisis and the accompanying countercyclical fiscal measures was that of enhancing the fiscal burden for governments. The levels of fiscal deficit and the public debt as percentages of GDP substantially increased and, gradually, another crisis broke out: the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, at the level of the EU governance, in order for the authorities to be able to improve it, there were adopted distinct strategies, programs and instruments. In spite of the converging efforts at the EU as well as national levels, the majority of the countries in the Euro Zone were not able to find the right formula of restarting economic growth. The present analysis brings to the forefront Spain’s experience, which represents a clear example of governance (and NPM failure, as neither the countercyclical measures adopted for the recovery, in accordance with the keynesyan principles, nor the austerity packages that followed them were not able to induce the economic growth, so essential for diminishing unemployment.

  5. Economic impact of heart failure according to the effects of kidney failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicras Mainar, Antoni; Navarro Artieda, Ruth; Ibáñez Nolla, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the use of health care resources and their cost according to the effects of kidney failure in heart failure patients during 2-year follow-up in a population setting. Observational retrospective study based on a review of medical records. The study included patients ≥ 45 years treated for heart failure from 2008 to 2010. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of KF. Main outcome variables were comorbidity, clinical status (functional class, etiology), metabolic syndrome, costs, and new cases of cardiovascular events and kidney failure. The cost model included direct and indirect health care costs. Statistical analysis included multiple regression models. The study recruited 1600 patients (prevalence, 4.0%; mean age 72.4 years; women, 59.7%). Of these patients, 70.1% had hypertension, 47.1% had dyslipidemia, and 36.2% had diabetes mellitus. We analyzed 433 patients (27.1%) with kidney failure and 1167 (72.9%) without kidney failure. Patients with kidney failure were associated with functional class III-IV (54.1% vs 40.8%) and metabolic syndrome (65.3% vs 51.9%, P<.01). The average unit cost was €10,711.40. The corrected cost in the presence of kidney failure was €14,868.20 vs €9,364.50 (P=.001). During follow-up, 11.7% patients developed ischemic heart disease, 18.8% developed kidney failure, and 36.1% developed heart failure exacerbation. Comorbidity associated with heart failure is high. The presence of kidney failure increases the use of health resources and leads to higher costs within the National Health System. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

    1993-01-01

    A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

  7. Signal analysis for failure detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parpaglione, M.C.; Perez, L.V.; Rubio, D.A.; Czibener, D.; D'Attellis, C.E.; Brudny, P.I.; Ruzzante, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Several methods for analysis of acoustic emission signals are presented. They are mainly oriented to detection of changes in noisy signals and characterization of higher amplitude discrete pulses or bursts. The aim was to relate changes and events with failure, crack or wear in materials, being the final goal to obtain automatic means of detecting such changes and/or events. Performance evaluation was made using both simulated and laboratory test signals. The methods being presented are the following: 1. Application of the Hopfield Neural Network (NN) model for classifying faults in pipes and detecting wear of a bearing. 2. Application of the Kohonnen and Back Propagation Neural Network model for the same problem. 3. Application of Kalman filtering to determine time occurrence of bursts. 4. Application of a bank of Kalman filters (KF) for failure detection in pipes. 5. Study of amplitude distribution of signals for detecting changes in their shape. 6. Application of the entropy distance to measure differences between signals. (author). 10 refs, 11 figs

  8. Economic burden of hospitalizations of Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kilgore M

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Meredith Kilgore,1 Harshali K Patel,2 Adrian Kielhorn,2 Juan F Maya,2 Pradeep Sharma1 1Department of Health Care Organization and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, 2Amgen, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the costs associated with the hospitalization and the cumulative 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission rates in a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure (HF.Methods: This was a retrospective, observational study based on data from the national 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Inpatient data were gathered for Medicare beneficiaries with at least one HF-related hospitalization between July 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011. The primary end point was the average per-patient cost of hospitalization for individuals with HF. Secondary end points included the cumulative rate of hospitalization, the average length of hospital stay, and the cumulative 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission rates.Results: Data from 63,678 patients with a mean age of 81.8 years were included in the analysis. All costs were inflated to $2,015 based on the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index. The mean per-patient cost of an HF-related hospitalization was $14,631. The mean per-patient cost of a cardiovascular (CV-related or all-cause hospitalization was $16,000 and $15,924, respectively. The cumulative rate of all-cause hospitalization was 218.8 admissions per 100 person-years, and the median length of stay for HF-related, CV-related, and all-cause hospitalizations was 5 days. Also, 22.3% of patients were readmitted within 30 days, 33.3% were readmitted within 60 days, and 40.2% were readmitted within 90 days.Conclusion: The costs associated with hospitalization for Medicare beneficiaries with HF are substantial and are compounded by a high rate of readmission. Keywords: heart failure, Medicare, health economics, hospitalization, costs

  9. Analysis of failures in concrete containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno-Gonzalez, A.

    1989-09-01

    The function of Containment, in an accident event, is to avoid the release of radioactive substances into the surroundings. Containment failure, therefore, is defined as the appearance of leak paths to the external environment. These leak paths may appear either as a result of loss of leaktightness due to degradation of design conditions or structural failure with containment material break. This document is a survey of the state of the art of Containment Failure Analysis. It gives a detailed description of all failure mechanisms, indicating all the possible failure modes and their causes, right from failure resulting from degradation of the materials to structural failure and linear breake failure. Following the description of failure modes, possible failure criteria are identified, with special emphasis on structural failure criteria. These criteria have been obtained not only from existing codes but also from the latest experimental results. A chapter has been dedicated exclusively to failure criteria in conventional structures, for the purpose of evaluating the possibility of application to the case of containment. As the structural behaviour of the containment building is very complex, it is not possible to define failure through a single parameter. It is therefore advisable to define a methodology for containment failure analysis which could be applied to a particular containment. This methodology should include prevailing load and material conditions together with the behaviour of complex conditions such as the liner-anchorage-cracked concrete interaction

  10. Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Heart Failure Care and Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Leslie L; DeVore, Adam D; Granger, Bradi B; Eapen, Zubin J; Ariely, Dan; Hernandez, Adrian F

    2017-08-22

    Behavioral challenges are often present in human illness, so behavioral economics is increasingly being applied in healthcare settings to better understand why patients choose healthy or unhealthy behaviors. The application of behavioral economics to healthcare settings parallels recent shifts in policy and reimbursement structures that hold providers accountable for outcomes that are dependent on patient behaviors. Numerous studies have examined the application of behavioral economics principles to policy making and health behaviors, but there are limited data on applying these concepts to the management of chronic conditions, such as heart failure (HF). Given its increasing prevalence and high associated cost of care, HF is a paradigm case for studying novel approaches to improve health care; therefore, if we can better understand why patients with HF make the choices they do, then we may be more poised to help them manage their medications, influence daily behaviors, and encourage healthy decision making. In this article, we will give a brief explanation of the core behavioral economics concepts that apply to patients with HF. We will also examine how to craft these concepts into tools such as financial incentives and social networks that may improve the management of patients with HF. We believe that behavioral economics can help us understand barriers to change, encourage positive behaviors, and offer additional approaches to improving the outcomes of patients with HF. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  12. Failure analysis of buried tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkins, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    Failure of a buried tank can be hazardous. Failure may be a leak through which product is lost from the tank; but also through which contamination can occur. Failures are epidemic -- because buried tanks are out of sight, but also because designers of buried tanks have adopted analyses developed for pressure tanks. So why do pressure tanks fail when they are buried? Most failures of buried tanks are really soil failures. Soil compresses, or slips, or liquefies. Soil is not only a load, it is a support without which the tank deforms. A high water table adds to the load on the tank. It also reduces the strength of the soil. Based on tests, structural analyses are proposed for empty tanks buried in soils of various quality, with the water table at various levels, and with internal vacuum. Failure may be collapse tank. Such collapse is a sudden, audible inversion of the cylinder when the sidefill soil slips. Failure may be flotation. Failure may be a leak. Most leaks are fractures in the welds in overlap seams at flat spots. Flat spots are caused by a hard bedding or a heavy surface wheel load. Because the tank wall is double thick at the overlap, shearing stress in the weld is increased. Other weld failures occur when an end plate shears down past a cylinder; or when the tank is supported only at its ends like a beam. These, and other, failures can be analyzed with justifiable accuracy using basic principles of mechanics of materials. 10 figs

  13. Failure analysis of boiler tube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehmood, K.; Siddiqui, A.R.

    2007-01-01

    Boiler tubes are energy conversion components where heat energy is used to convert water into high pressure superheated steam, which is then delivered to a turbine for electric power generation in thermal power plants or to run plant and machineries in a process or manufacturing industry. It was reported that one of the tubes of a fire-tube boiler used in a local industry had leakage after the formation of pits at the external surface of the tube. The inner side of the fire tube was working with hot flue gasses with a pressure of 10 Kg/cm/sup 2/ and temperature 225 degree C. The outside of the tube was surrounded by feed water. The purpose of this study was to determine the cause of pits developed at the external surface of the failed boiler tube sample. In the present work boiler tube samples of steel grade ASTM AI61/ASTM A192 were analyzed using metallographic analysis, chemical analysis, and mechanical testing. It was concluded that the appearance of defects on the boiler tube sample indicates cavitation type corrosion failure. Cavitation damage superficially resembled pitting, but surface appeared considerably rougher and had many closely spaced pits. (author)

  14. The interaction of NDE and failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, R.W.

    1988-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) and failure analysis for the assessment of the structural integrity. It appears that failure analysis enables to know whether NDE is required or not, and can help to direct NDE into the most useful directions by identifying the areas where it is most important that defects are absent. It also appears that failure analysis can help the operator to decide which NDE method is best suited to the component studied and provides detailed specifications for this NDE method. The interaction between failure analysis and NDE is then described. (TEC)

  15. The interaction of NDE and failure analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichols, R W

    1988-12-31

    This paper deals with the use of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) and failure analysis for the assessment of the structural integrity. It appears that failure analysis enables to know whether NDE is required or not, and can help to direct NDE into the most useful directions by identifying the areas where it is most important that defects are absent. It also appears that failure analysis can help the operator to decide which NDE method is best suited to the component studied and provides detailed specifications for this NDE method. The interaction between failure analysis and NDE is then described. (TEC).

  16. Data needs for common cause failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Rasmuson, D.; Whitehead, D.

    1990-01-01

    The procedures guide for common cause failure analysis published jointly by USNRC and EPRI requires a detailed historical event analysis. Recent work on the further development of the cause-defense picture of common cause failures introduced in that guide identified the information that is necessary to perform the detailed analysis in an objective manner. This paper summarizes these information needs

  17. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

  18. Refurbishment of Railroad Crossties : A Technical and Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-12-01

    An analysis of the principal modes of failure for wooden railroad crossties was conducted and an evaluation of the technical and economic feasibility of refurbishing these ties was conducted. Among the principal modes of structural deterioration, onl...

  19. Investigations of the Failure in Boilers Economizer Tubes Used in Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moakhar, Roozbeh Siavash; Mehdipour, Mehrad; Ghorbani, Mohammad; Mohebali, Milad; Koohbor, Behrad

    2013-09-01

    In this study, failure of a high pressure economizer tube of a boiler used in gas-Mazut combined cycle power plants was studied. Failure analysis of the tube was accomplished by taking into account visual inspection, thickness measurement, and hardness testing as well as microstructural observations using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and x-ray diffraction (XRD). Optical microscopy images indicate that there is no phase transformation during service, and ferrite-pearlite remained. The results of XRD also revealed Iron sulfate (FeSO4) and Iron hydroxide sulfate (FeOH(SO4)) phases formed on the steel surface. A considerable amount of Sulfur was also detected on the outer surface of the tube by EDS analysis. Dew-point corrosion was found to be the principal reason for the failure of the examined tube while it has been left out-of-service.

  20. Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.

  1. Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, George K.

    An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…

  2. Common cause failure analysis methodology for complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Cate, C.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1977-01-01

    Common cause failure analysis, also called common mode failure analysis, is an integral part of a complex system reliability analysis. This paper extends existing methods of computer aided common cause failure analysis by allowing analysis of the complex systems often encountered in practice. The methods presented here aid in identifying potential common cause failures and also address quantitative common cause failure analysis

  3. Preliminary failure mode and effect analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addison, J.V.

    1972-01-01

    A preliminary Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) was made on the overall 5 Kwe system. A general discussion of the system and failure effect is given in addition to the tabulated FMEA and a primary block diagram of the system. (U.S.)

  4. Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

    1993-10-01

    This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broader range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response

  5. Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1993-10-01

    This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broader range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.

  6. Introduction to Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    R. Preston McAfee

    2005-01-01

    This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

  7. Failure and damage analysis of advanced materials

    CERN Document Server

    Sadowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The papers in this volume present basic concepts and new developments in failure and damage analysis with focus on advanced materials such as composites, laminates, sandwiches and foams, and also new metallic materials. Starting from some mathematical foundations (limit surfaces, symmetry considerations, invariants) new experimental results and their analysis are shown. Finally, new concepts for failure prediction and analysis will be introduced and discussed as well as new methods of failure and damage prediction for advanced metallic and non-metallic materials. Based on experimental results the traditional methods will be revised.

  8. Failure analysis of superconducting bearings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rastogi, Amit; Campbell, A M; Coombs, T A [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)

    2006-06-01

    The dynamics of superconductor bearings in a cryogenic failure scenario have been analyzed. As the superconductor warms up, the rotor goes through multiple resonance frequencies, begins to slow down and finally touches down when the superconductor goes through its transition temperature. The bearing can be modelled as a system of springs with axial, radial and cross stiffness. These springs go through various resonant modes as the temperature of the superconductor begins to rise. We have presented possible explanations for such behavio0008.

  9. Analysis of reactor trips involving balance-of-plant failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seth, S.; Skinner, L.; Ettlinger, L.; Lay, R.

    1986-01-01

    The relatively high frequency of plant transients leading to reactor trips at nuclear power plants in the US is of economic and safety concern to the industry. A majority of such transients is due to failures in the balance-of-plant (BOP) systems. As a part of a study conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Mitre has carried out a further analysis of the BOP failures associated with reactor trips. The major objectives of the analysis were to examine plant-to-plant variations in BOP-related trips, to understand the causes of failures, and to determine the extent of any associated safety system challenges. The analysis was based on the Licensee Event Reports submitted on all commercial light water reactors during the 2-yr period, 1984-1985

  10. Failure analysis for WWER-fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmert, J.; Huettig, W.

    1986-10-01

    If the fuel defect rate proves significantly high, failure analysis has to be performed in order to trace down the defect causes, to implement corrective actions, and to take measures of failure prevention. Such analyses are work-consuming and very skill-demanding technical tasks, which require examination methods and devices excellently developed and a rich stock of experience in evaluation of features of damage. For that this work specifies the procedure of failure analyses in detail. Moreover prerequisites and experimental equipment for the investigation of WWER-type fuel elements are described. (author)

  11. Life extension economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smithling, A.P.

    1992-01-01

    Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

  12. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.

    2006-12-01

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  13. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  14. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  15. Failure analysis of medical Linac (LMR-15)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Kiyotaka; Nakamura, Katsumi; Ogihara, Kiyoshi; Takahashi, Katsuhiko; Sato, Kazuhisa.

    1994-01-01

    In August 1978, Linac (LMR-15, Z4 Toshiba) was installed at our hospital and in use for 12 years up to September 1990. Recently, we completed working and failure records on this apparatus during the 12-year period, for the purpose of their analysis in the basis of reliability engineering. The results revealed operation rate of 97.85% on the average, mean time between failures (MTBF) from 40-70 hours about the beginning of its working to 280 hours for 2 years before renewal and practically satisfactory values of mean life of parts of life such as magnetron, thyratron and electron gun; the above respective values proved to be above those reported by other literature. On the other hand, we classified, by occurring system, the contents of failures in the apparatus and determined the number of failures and the temperature and humidities in case of failures to examine the correlation between the working environment and failure. The results indicated a change in humidity to gain control of failures in the dosimetric system, especially the monitoring chamber and we could back up the strength of the above correlation from a coefficient of correlation value of 0.84. (author)

  16. Failure probability analysis of optical grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

    2008-11-01

    Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

  17. Failure analysis on a ruptured petrochemical pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harun, Mohd [Industrial Technology Division, Malaysian Nuclear Agency, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Shamsudin, Shaiful Rizam; Kamardin, A. [Univ. Malaysia Perlis, Jejawi, Arau (Malaysia). School of Materials Engineering

    2010-08-15

    The failure took place on a welded elbow pipe which exhibited a catastrophic transverse rupture. The failure was located on the welding HAZ region, parallel to the welding path. Branching cracks were detected at the edge of the rupture area. Deposits of corrosion products were also spotted. The optical microscope analysis showed the presence of transgranular failures which were related to the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and were predominantly caused by the welding residual stress. The significant difference in hardness between the welded area and the pipe confirmed the findings. Moreover, the failure was also caused by the low Mo content in the stainless steel pipe which was detected by means of spark emission spectrometer. (orig.)

  18. Failure Analysis Of Industrial Boiler Pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natsir, Muhammad; Soedardjo, B.; Arhatari, Dewi; Andryansyah; Haryanto, Mudi; Triyadi, Ari

    2000-01-01

    Failure analysis of industrial boiler pipe has been done. The tested pipe material is carbon steel SA 178 Grade A refer to specification data which taken from Fertilizer Company. Steps in analysis were ; collection of background operation and material specification, visual inspection, dye penetrant test, radiography test, chemical composition test, hardness test, metallography test. From the test and analysis result, it is shown that the pipe failure caused by erosion and welding was shown porosity and incomplete penetration. The main cause of failure pipe is erosion due to cavitation, which decreases the pipe thickness. Break in pipe thickness can be done due to decreasing in pipe thickness. To anticipate this problem, the ppe will be replaced with new pipe

  19. Failure analysis of real-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalashgar, A.; Stoelen, K.

    1998-01-01

    This paper highlights essential aspects of real-time software systems that are strongly related to the failures and their course of propagation. The significant influence of means-oriented and goal-oriented system views in the description, understanding and analysing of those aspects is elaborated. The importance of performing failure analysis prior to reliability analysis of real-time systems is equally addressed. Problems of software reliability growth models taking the properties of such systems into account are discussed. Finally, the paper presents a preliminary study of a goal-oriented approach to model the static and dynamic characteristics of real-time systems, so that the corresponding analysis can be based on a more descriptive and informative picture of failures, their effects and the possibility of their occurrence. (author)

  20. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  1. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F; Sandgren, J [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1998-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  2. Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, K A

    1984-01-01

    A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.

  3. A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, Eric C., E-mail: eford@uw.edu; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287 (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. Methods: FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Results: Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes hadRPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Conclusions: Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed.

  4. A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Eric C.; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. Methods: FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Results: Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes hadRPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Conclusions: Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed

  5. A streamlined failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Eric C; Smith, Koren; Terezakis, Stephanie; Croog, Victoria; Gollamudi, Smitha; Gage, Irene; Keck, Jordie; DeWeese, Theodore; Sibley, Greg

    2014-06-01

    Explore the feasibility and impact of a streamlined failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) using a structured process that is designed to minimize staff effort. FMEA for the external beam process was conducted at an affiliate radiation oncology center that treats approximately 60 patients per day. A structured FMEA process was developed which included clearly defined roles and goals for each phase. A core group of seven people was identified and a facilitator was chosen to lead the effort. Failure modes were identified and scored according to the FMEA formalism. A risk priority number,RPN, was calculated and used to rank failure modes. Failure modes with RPN > 150 received safety improvement interventions. Staff effort was carefully tracked throughout the project. Fifty-two failure modes were identified, 22 collected during meetings, and 30 from take-home worksheets. The four top-ranked failure modes were: delay in film check, missing pacemaker protocol/consent, critical structures not contoured, and pregnant patient simulated without the team's knowledge of the pregnancy. These four failure modes had RPN > 150 and received safety interventions. The FMEA was completed in one month in four 1-h meetings. A total of 55 staff hours were required and, additionally, 20 h by the facilitator. Streamlined FMEA provides a means of accomplishing a relatively large-scale analysis with modest effort. One potential value of FMEA is that it potentially provides a means of measuring the impact of quality improvement efforts through a reduction in risk scores. Future study of this possibility is needed.

  6. Failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.

    1982-07-01

    In this report a methodology of failure diagnosis for complex systems is presented. Systems which can be represented by fault trees are considered. This methodology is based on switching algebra, failure diagnosis of digital circuits and fault tree analysis. Relations between these disciplines are shown. These relations are due to Boolean algebra and Boolean functions used throughout. It will be shown on this basis that techniques of failure diagnosis and fault tree analysis are useful to solve the following problems: 1. describe an efficient search of all failed components if the system is failed. 2. Describe an efficient search of all states which are close to a system failure if the system is still operating. The first technique will improve the availability, the second the reliability and safety. For these problems, the relation to methods of failure diagnosis for combinational circuits is required. Moreover, the techniques are demonstrated for a number of systems which can be represented by fault trees. (orig./RW) [de

  7. Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

  8. Corrosion failure analysis as related to prevention of corrosion failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suss, H.

    1977-10-01

    The factors and conditions which have contributed to many of the corrosion related service failures are discussed based on a review of actual case histories. The anti-corrosion devices which developed as a result of these failure analyses are reviewed, and the method which must be adopted and used to take advantage of the available corrosion prevention techniques is discussed

  9. Micromechanics Based Failure Analysis of Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sertse, Hamsasew M.

    are performed for both brittle failure/high cycle fatigue (HCF) for negligible plastic strain and ductile failure/low cycle fatigue (LCF) for large plastic strain. The proposed approach is incorporated in SwiftComp and used to predict the initial failure envelope, stress-strain curve for various loading conditions, and fatigue life of heterogeneous materials. The combined effects of strain hardening and progressive fatigue damage on the effective properties of heterogeneous materials are also studied. The capability of the current approach is validated using several representative examples of heterogeneous materials including binary composites, continuous fiber-reinforced composites, particle-reinforced composites, discontinuous fiber-reinforced composites, and woven composites. The predictions of MSG are also compared with the predictions obtained using various micromechanics approaches such as Generalized Methods of Cells (GMC), Mori-Tanaka (MT), and Double Inclusions (DI) and Representative Volume Element (RVE) Analysis (called as 3-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA) in this document). This study demonstrates that a micromechanics based failure analysis has a great potential to rigorously and more accurately analyze initiation and progression of damage in heterogeneous materials. However, this approach requires material properties specific to damage analysis, which are needed to be independently calibrated for each constituent.

  10. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data

    CERN Document Server

    Kalbfleisch, John D

    2011-01-01

    Contains additional discussion and examples on left truncation as well as material on more general censoring and truncation patterns.Introduces the martingale and counting process formulation swil lbe in a new chapter.Develops multivariate failure time data in a separate chapter and extends the material on Markov and semi Markov formulations.Presents new examples and applications of data analysis.

  11. Sequentially linear analysis for simulating brittle failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Graaf, A.V.

    2017-01-01

    The numerical simulation of brittle failure at structural level with nonlinear finite
    element analysis (NLFEA) remains a challenge due to robustness issues. We attribute these problems to the dimensions of real-world structures combined with softening behavior and negative tangent stiffness at

  12. Failure analysis on a chemical waste pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambler, J.R.

    1985-01-01

    A failure analysis of a chemical waste pipe illustrates how nuclear technology can spin off metallurgical consultant services. The pipe, made of zirconium alloy (Zr-2.5 wt percent Nb, UNS 60705), had cracked in several places, all at butt welds. A combination of fractography and metallography indicated delayed hydride cracking

  13. Failure analysis of fractured dental zirconia implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahlert, M; Burtscher, D; Grunert, I; Kniha, H; Steinhauser, E

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of the present study was the macroscopic and microscopic failure analysis of fractured zirconia dental implants. Thirteen fractured one-piece zirconia implants (Z-Look3) out of 170 inserted implants with an average in situ period of 36.75±5.34 months (range from 20 to 56 months, median 38 months) were prepared for macroscopic and microscopic (scanning electron microscopy [SEM]) failure analysis. These 170 implants were inserted in 79 patients. The patient histories were compared with fracture incidences to identify the reasons for the failure of the implants. Twelve of these fractured implants had a diameter of 3.25 mm and one implant had a diameter of 4 mm. All fractured implants were located in the anterior side of the maxilla and mandibula. The patient with the fracture of the 4 mm diameter implant was adversely affected by strong bruxism. By failure analysis (SEM), it could be demonstrated that in all cases, mechanical overloading caused the fracture of the implants. Inhomogeneities and internal defects of the ceramic material could be excluded, but notches and scratches due to sandblasting of the surface led to local stress concentrations that led to the mentioned mechanical overloading by bending loads. The present study identified a fracture rate of nearly 10% within a follow-up period of 36.75 months after prosthetic loading. Ninety-two per cent of the fractured implants were so-called diameter reduced implants (diameter 3.25 mm). These diameter reduced implants cannot be recommended for further clinical use. Improvement of the ceramic material and modification of the implant geometry has to be carried out to reduce the failure rate of small-sized ceramic implants. Nevertheless, due to the lack of appropriate laboratory testing, only clinical studies will demonstrate clearly whether and how far the failure rate can be reduced. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  14. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  15. Dissimilar weld failure analysis and development program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holko, K.H.; Li, C.C.

    1982-01-01

    The problem of dissimilar weld cracking and failure is examined. This problem occurs in boiler superheater and reheater sections as well as main steam piping. Typically, a dissimilar weld joins low-alloy steel tubing such as Fe-2-1/4 Cr-1Mo to stainless steel tubing such as 321H and 304H. Cracking and failure occur in the low-alloy steel heat-affected zone very close to the weld interface. The 309 stainless steel filler previously used has been replaced with nickel-base fillers such as Inconel 132, Inconel 182, and Incoweld A. This change has extended the time to cracking and failure, but has not solved the problem. To illustrate and define the problem, the metallography of damaged and failed dissimilar welds is described. Results of mechanical tests of dissimilar welds removed from service are presented, and factors believed to be influential in causing damage and failure are discussed. In addition, the importance of dissimilar weldment service history is demonstrated, and the Dissimilar Weld Failure Analysis and Development Program is described. 15 figures

  16. Combinatorial analysis of systems with competing failures subject to failure isolation and propagation effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xing Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the reliability analysis of binary-state systems, subject to propagated failures with global effect, and failure isolation phenomena. Propagated failures with global effect are common-cause failures originated from a component of a system/subsystem causing the failure of the entire system/subsystem. Failure isolation occurs when the failure of one component (referred to as a trigger component) causes other components (referred to as dependent components) within the same system to become isolated from the system. On the one hand, failure isolation makes the isolated dependent components unusable; on the other hand, it prevents the propagation of failures originated from those dependent components. However, the failure isolation effect does not exist if failures originated in the dependent components already propagate globally before the trigger component fails. In other words, there exists a competition in the time domain between the failure of the trigger component that causes failure isolation and propagated failures originated from the dependent components. This paper presents a combinatorial method for the reliability analysis of systems subject to such competing propagated failures and failure isolation effect. Based on the total probability theorem, the proposed method is analytical, exact, and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the basics and advantages of the proposed method.

  17. Economic Determinants of Academic Failure and School Desertion in the Guatemala Highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvajal, Manuel J.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Explores, from an economic perspective, elementary school system adequacy in the rural, indigenous Guatemalan highlands. Estimates least-squares coefficients and elasticities separately for academic failure and school abandonment for each of four indigenous groups. The model explains academic failure better than school desertion. A national policy…

  18. Failure analysis of a Francis turbine runner

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frunzaverde, D; Campian, V [Research Center in Hydraulics, Automation and Heat Transfer, ' Eftimie Murgu' University of Resita P-ta Traian Vuia 1-4, RO-320085, Resita (Romania); Muntean, S [Centre of Advanced Research in Engineering Sciences, Romanian Academy - Timisoara Branch Bv. Mihai Viteazu 24, RO-300223, Timisoara (Romania); Marginean, G [University of Applied Sciences Gelsenkirchen, Neidenburger Str. 10, 45877 Gelsenkirchen (Germany); Marsavina, L [Department of Strength, ' Politehnica' University of Timisoara, Bv. Mihai Viteazu 1, RO-300222, Timisoara (Romania); Terzi, R; Serban, V, E-mail: gabriela.marginean@fh-gelsenkirchen.d, E-mail: d.frunzaverde@uem.r [Ramnicu Valcea Subsidiary, S.C. Hidroelectrica S.A., Str. Decebal 11, RO-240255, Ramnicu Valcea (Romania)

    2010-08-15

    The variable demand on the energy market requires great flexibility in operating hydraulic turbines. Therefore, turbines are frequently operated over an extended range of regimes. Francis turbines operating at partial load present pressure fluctuations due to the vortex rope in the draft tube cone. This phenomenon generates strong vibrations and noise that may produce failures on the mechanical elements of the machine. This paper presents the failure analysis of a broken Francis turbine runner blade. The failure appeared some months after the welding repair work realized in situ on fatigue cracks initiated near to the trailing edge at the junction with the crown, where stress concentration occurs. In order to determine the causes that led to the fracture of the runner blade, the metallographic investigations on a sample obtained from the blade is carried out. The metallographic investigations included macroscopic and microscopic examinations, both performed with light and scanning electron microscopy, as well as EDX - analyses. These investigations led to the conclusion, that the cracking of the blade was caused by fatigue, initiated by the surface unevenness of the welding seam. The failure was accelerated by the hydrogen embrittlement of the filling material, which appeared as a consequence of improper welding conditions. In addition to the metallographic investigations, numerical computations with finite element analysis are performed in order to evaluate the deformation and stress distribution on blade.

  19. Failure analysis of a Francis turbine runner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frunzaverde, D; Campian, V; Muntean, S; Marginean, G; Marsavina, L; Terzi, R; Serban, V

    2010-01-01

    The variable demand on the energy market requires great flexibility in operating hydraulic turbines. Therefore, turbines are frequently operated over an extended range of regimes. Francis turbines operating at partial load present pressure fluctuations due to the vortex rope in the draft tube cone. This phenomenon generates strong vibrations and noise that may produce failures on the mechanical elements of the machine. This paper presents the failure analysis of a broken Francis turbine runner blade. The failure appeared some months after the welding repair work realized in situ on fatigue cracks initiated near to the trailing edge at the junction with the crown, where stress concentration occurs. In order to determine the causes that led to the fracture of the runner blade, the metallographic investigations on a sample obtained from the blade is carried out. The metallographic investigations included macroscopic and microscopic examinations, both performed with light and scanning electron microscopy, as well as EDX - analyses. These investigations led to the conclusion, that the cracking of the blade was caused by fatigue, initiated by the surface unevenness of the welding seam. The failure was accelerated by the hydrogen embrittlement of the filling material, which appeared as a consequence of improper welding conditions. In addition to the metallographic investigations, numerical computations with finite element analysis are performed in order to evaluate the deformation and stress distribution on blade.

  20. The economic failure of nuclear power in Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henney, A.

    1990-01-01

    Claims made about the economics of nuclear power have been misleading. The history and political framework within which nuclear power has developed in Britain are explained so that those claims can be understood. The main factors affecting the development of nuclear power in Britain have been military requirements, national pride, the hope of cheap electricity and concern about the security of fuel supplies. Variations in the official view of the economics of Magnox reactors are used to illustrate changes in the government attitude to nuclear power economics. Other factors - the 'oil crisis' of the 1970's the miners' strike, the accident at Three Mile Island and methods of accounting are all shown to influence this attitude. At the Hinkley Point C Inquiry the Central Electricity Generating Board conceded that nuclear power was not economic a position recognised by the government in the non-privatisation of nuclear power. (UK)

  1. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  2. Importance analysis for the systems with common cause failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Zhijie; Nonaka, Yasuo

    1995-01-01

    This paper extends the importance analysis technique to the research field of common cause failures to evaluate the structure importance, probability importance, and β-importance for the systems with common cause failures. These importance measures would help reliability analysts to limit the common cause failure analysis framework and find efficient defence strategies against common cause failures

  3. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle failure...

  4. Economic and organizational determinants of HMO mergers and failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, R; Wholey, D; Christianson, J

    1996-01-01

    This study analyzed data from all operational health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the United States from 1986 through 1993. Eighty HMOs disappeared through mergers and 149 failed over that period. We estimated a multinomial logit model to predict whether an HMO would merge and survive, merge and disappear, or fail, relative to the probability of no event. We found that enrollment and profitability play a critical role in explaining HMO mergers and failures: large and profitable HMOs were more likely to merge and survive, but less likely to merge and disappear or fail. These results explain why HMO merger and failure rates fell after 1988, as most surviving HMOs became larger and more profitable. Among several market-area variables in the model, state anti-takeover regulations had a negative impact on mergers. Mergers were more likely in markets with more competing HMOs, but the overall market penetration of HMOs had no effect on mergers. This result may have important implications for the current debate over the future of the competitive health care strategy. If public policy successfully stimulates the development of large numbers of new HMOs, another wave of mergers and failures is likely to occur. But it appears that growth in overall HMO penetration will not lead inevitably to increased market concentration.

  5. Recognition and Analysis of Corrosion Failure Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Suess

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Corrosion has a vast impact on the global and domestic economy, and currently incurs losses of nearly $300 billion annually to the U.S. economy alone. Because of the huge impact of corrosion, it is imperative to have a systematic approach to recognizing and mitigating corrosion problems as soon as possible after they become apparent. A proper failure analysis includes collection of pertinent background data and service history, followed by visual inspection, photographic documentation, material evaluation, data review and conclusion procurement. In analyzing corrosion failures, one must recognize the wide range of common corrosion mechanisms. The features of any corrosion failure give strong clues as to the most likely cause of the corrosion. This article details a proven approach to properly determining the root cause of a failure, and includes pictographic illustrations of the most common corrosion mechanisms, including general corrosion, pitting, galvanic corrosion, dealloying, crevice corrosion, microbiologically-influenced corrosion (MIC, corrosion fatigue, stress corrosion cracking (SCC, intergranular corrosion, fretting, erosion corrosion and hydrogen damage.

  6. Recognition and Analysis of Corrosion Failure Mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Suess

    2006-01-01

    Corrosion has a vast impact on the global and domestic economy, and currently incurs losses of nearly $300 billion annually to the U.S. economy alone. Because of the huge impact of corrosion, it is imperative to have a systematic approach to recognizing and mitigating corrosion problems as soon as possible after they become apparent. A proper failure analysis includes collection of pertinent background data and service history, followed by visual inspection, photographic documentation, materi...

  7. The application of Petri nets to failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, T.S.; Chiou, S.B.

    1997-01-01

    Unlike the technique of fault tree analysis that has been widely applied to system failure analysis in reliability engineering, this study presents a Petri net approach to failure analysis. It is essentially a graphical method for describing relations between conditions and events. The use of Petri nets in failure analysis enables to replace logic gate functions in fault trees, efficiently obtain minimal cut sets, and absorb models. It is demonstrated that for failure analysis Petri nets are more efficient than fault trees. In addition, this study devises an alternative; namely, a trapezoidal graph method in order to account for failure scenarios. Examples validate this novel method in dealing with failure analysis

  8. Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

  9. Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

    2011-09-01

    Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Corruption, Institutional Failure and Economic Development in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptually, this paper considers corruption as the misuse of public office for private gain(s). Thus, the basic roles of institutions which include efficiency in service delivery are absolutely relegated to the background which by extension impacts negatively on economic performance in Nigeria. Unlike the widely held view ...

  11. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  13. Electrical failure analysis for root-cause determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riddle, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper outlines a practical failure analysis sequence. Several technical definitions are required. A failure is defined as a component that was operating in a system where the system malfunctioned and the replacement of the device restored system functionality. The failure mode is the malfunctioning behavior of the device. The failure mechanism is the underlying cause or source of the failure mode. The failure mechanism is the root cause of the failure mode. The failure analysis procedure needs to be adequately refined to result in the determination of the cause of failure to the degree that corrective action or design changes will prevent recurrence of the failure mode or mechanism. An example of a root-cause determination analysis performed for a nuclear power industry customer serves to illustrate the analysis methodology

  14. Challenges in Resolution for IC Failure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Nick

    1999-10-01

    Resolution is becoming more and more of a challenge in the world of Failure Analysis in integrated circuits. This is a result of the ongoing size reduction in microelectronics. Determining the cause of a failure depends upon being able to find the responsible defect. The time it takes to locate a given defect is extremely important so that proper corrective actions can be taken. The limits of current microscopy tools are being pushed. With sub-micron feature sizes and even smaller killing defects, optical microscopes are becoming obsolete. With scanning electron microscopy (SEM), the resolution is high but the voltage involved can make these small defects transparent due to the large mean-free path of incident electrons. In this presentation, I will give an overview of the use of inspection methods in Failure Analysis and show example studies of my work as an Intern student at Texas Instruments. 1. Work at Texas Instruments, Stafford, TX, was supported by TI. 2. Work at Texas Tech University, was supported by NSF Grant DMR9705498.

  15. The Musharraf Paradox: The Failure of an Economic Success Story

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    classes, the ascendancy of feudal- istic norms and a highly inefficient and corrupt govern- ment machinery. Finally, there is empirical support...the government lacked credi- bility with the Fund. The failed programs in the 1990s only compounded the Fund’s suspicion that the country was inca ...This conclusion is reinforced by recent empirical evi- dence [39] that suggests Pakistan’s defense expenditures have a negative impact of economic

  16. Failure analysis and failure prevention in electric power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rau, C.A. Jr.; Becker, D.G.; Besuner, P.M.; Cipolla, R.C.; Egan, G.R.; Gupta, P.; Johnson, D.P.; Omry, U.; Tetelman, A.S.; Rettig, T.W.; Peters, D.C.

    1977-01-01

    New methods have been developed and applied to better quantify and increase the reliability, safety, and availability of electric power plants. Present and potential problem areas have been identified both by development of an improved computerized data base of malfunctions in nuclear power plants and by detailed metallurgical and mechanical failure analyses of selected problems. Significant advances in the accuracy and speed of structural analyses have been made through development and application of the boundary integral equation and influence function methods of stress and fracture mechanics analyses. The currently specified flaw evaluation procedures of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code have been computerized. Results obtained from these procedures for evaluation of specific in-service inspection indications have been compared with results obtained utilizing the improved analytical methods. Mathematical methods have also been developed to describe and analyze the statistical variations in materials properties and in component loading, and uncertainties in the flaw size that might be passed by quality assurance systems. These new methods have been combined to develop accurate failure rate predictions based upon probabilistic fracture mechanics. Improved failure prevention strategies have been formulated by combining probabilistic fracture mechanics and cost optimization techniques. The approach has been demonstrated by optimizing the nondestructive inspection level with regard to both reliability and cost. (Auth.)

  17. Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro

    2005-03-01

    Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)

  18. Timing analysis of PWR fuel pin failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, K.R.; Wade, N.L.; Katsma, K.R.; Siefken, L.J.; Straka, M.

    1992-09-01

    Research has been conducted to develop and demonstrate a methodology for calculation of the time interval between receipt of the containment isolation signals and the first fuel pin failure for loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). Demonstration calculations were performed for a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) design (Oconee) and a Westinghouse (W) four-loop design (Seabrook). Sensitivity studies were performed to assess the impacts of fuel pin bumup, axial peaking factor, break size, emergency core cooling system availability, and main coolant pump trip on these times. The analysis was performed using the following codes: FRAPCON-2, for the calculation of steady-state fuel behavior; SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 and TRACPF1/MOD1, for the calculation of the transient thermal-hydraulic conditions in the reactor system; and FRAP-T6, for the calculation of transient fuel behavior. In addition to the calculation of fuel pin failure timing, this analysis provides a comparison of the predicted results of SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 and TRAC-PFL/MOD1 for large-break LOCA analysis. Using SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3 thermal-hydraulic data, the shortest time intervals calculated between initiation of containment isolation and fuel pin failure are 10.4 seconds and 19.1 seconds for the B ampersand W and W plants, respectively. Using data generated by TRAC-PF1/MOD1, the shortest intervals are 10.3 seconds and 29.1 seconds for the B ampersand W and W plants, respectively. These intervals are for a double-ended, offset-shear, cold leg break, using the technical specification maximum peaking factor and applied to fuel with maximum design bumup. Using peaking factors commensurate widi actual bumups would result in longer intervals for both reactor designs. This document also contains appendices A through J of this report

  19. Failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) on mechanical subsystems of diesel generator at NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Singh, Brijendra; Sung, Tae Yong; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan

    1996-06-01

    Largely, the RCM approach can be divided in three phases; (1) Functional failure analysis (FFA) on the selected system or subsystem, (2) Failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) to identify the impact of failure to plant safety or economics, (3) Logical tree analysis (LTA) to select appropriate preventive maintenance and surveillance tasks. This report presents FMECA results for six mechanical subsystems of the diesel generators of nuclear power plants. The six mechanical subsystems are Starting air, Lub oil, Governor, Jacket water cooling, Fuel, and Engine subsystems. Generic and plant-specific failure and maintenance records are reviewed to identify critical components/failure modes. FMECA was performed for these critical component/failure modes. After reviewing current preventive maintenance activities of Wolsung unit 1, draft RCM recommendations are developed. 6 tabs., 16 refs. (Author)

  20. Failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) on mechanical subsystems of diesel generator at NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Singh, Brijendra; Sung, Tae Yong; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-06-01

    Largely, the RCM approach can be divided in three phases; (1) Functional failure analysis (FFA) on the selected system or subsystem, (2) Failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) to identify the impact of failure to plant safety or economics, (3) Logical tree analysis (LTA) to select appropriate preventive maintenance and surveillance tasks. This report presents FMECA results for six mechanical subsystems of the diesel generators of nuclear power plants. The six mechanical subsystems are Starting air, Lub oil, Governor, Jacket water cooling, Fuel, and Engine subsystems. Generic and plant-specific failure and maintenance records are reviewed to identify critical components/failure modes. FMECA was performed for these critical component/failure modes. After reviewing current preventive maintenance activities of Wolsung unit 1, draft RCM recommendations are developed. 6 tabs., 16 refs. (Author).

  1. FEAT - FAILURE ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS TOOL (UNIX VERSION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pack, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Failure Environment Analysis Tool, FEAT, enables people to see and better understand the effects of failures in a system. FEAT uses digraph models to determine what will happen to a system if a set of failure events occurs and to identify the possible causes of a selected set of failures. Failures can be user-selected from either engineering schematic or digraph model graphics, and the effects or potential causes of the failures will be color highlighted on the same schematic or model graphic. As a design tool, FEAT helps design reviewers understand exactly what redundancies have been built into a system and where weaknesses need to be protected or designed out. A properly developed digraph will reflect how a system functionally degrades as failures accumulate. FEAT is also useful in operations, where it can help identify causes of failures after they occur. Finally, FEAT is valuable both in conceptual development and as a training aid, since digraphs can identify weaknesses in scenarios as well as hardware. Digraphs models for use with FEAT are generally built with the Digraph Editor, a Macintosh-based application which is distributed with FEAT. The Digraph Editor was developed specifically with the needs of FEAT users in mind and offers several time-saving features. It includes an icon toolbox of components required in a digraph model and a menu of functions for manipulating these components. It also offers FEAT users a convenient way to attach a formatted textual description to each digraph node. FEAT needs these node descriptions in order to recognize nodes and propagate failures within the digraph. FEAT users store their node descriptions in modelling tables using any word processing or spreadsheet package capable of saving data to an ASCII text file. From within the Digraph Editor they can then interactively attach a properly formatted textual description to each node in a digraph. Once descriptions are attached to them, a selected set of nodes can be

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R.

    2008-12-01

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

  3. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2004-12-01

    This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO 2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO 2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

  4. Economic and Financial Analysis Tools | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Use these economic and . Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Use these easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools to analyze the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the

  5. Use of fuel failure correlations in accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Dell, L.D.; Baars, R.E.; Waltar, A.E.

    1975-05-01

    The MELT-III code for analysis of a Transient Overpower (TOP) accident in an LMFBR is briefly described, including failure criteria currently applied in the code. Preliminary results of calculations exploring failure patterns in time and space in the reactor core are reported and compared for the two empirical fuel failure correlations employed in the code. (U.S.)

  6. BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fussell, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

  7. Failures of the State”: Factors of Formation and Mechanisms of Influence on Economic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gontar Nikolay Vladimirovich

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of genesis and influence on real economic processes of “failures of the state”. The article designates the objective functions inherent in the state the realization of which can increase the efficiency of economic interactions reducing transaction expenses. Besides, the key factors of non-optimal activity of the state as well as actual “failures of the state” are considered. The approaches to the definition of “failures of the state” are analyzed. Taking into account functional approach the author proposes the model definition allowing to separate “failures of the state” from factors and conditions of their emergence. Among the emergence factors of “failures of the state” the author analyzes in detail the key division of economy subjects to net-payers and net-recipients of the income, the fact of distribution of consequences of state regulation to the sectors which are not direct objects of regulation as well as the influence of short-term decisions for long-term prospects are designated. The author also analyzes the range of “failures of the state”, including such as formation of monopolies, tax discouraging, failures of social security, nature of “state business”, derivation of resources and workers from economy, formation of an inequality and calculational (price chaos in economy. The key consequences and volume of the economic damage formed by “failures of the state” are considered, the corresponding quantitative estimates are given. The most important vectors of optimization of activity of the state which provide minimization of “failures of the state” and the related economic damage are designated. According to the author, such vectors include the priority of market self-regulation under the condition of refusal from substitutes in the form of “approach” of public sector to market standards. The minimization of public sector activity aimed at the exclusion of

  8. Probabilistic analysis of ''common mode failures''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, R.G.

    1978-01-01

    Common mode failure is a topic of considerable interest in reliability and safety analyses of nuclear reactors. Common mode failures are often discussed in terms of examples: two systems fail simultaneously due to an external event such as an earthquake; two components in redundant channels fail because of a common manufacturing defect; two systems fail because a component common to both fails; the failure of one system increases the stress on other systems and they fail. The common thread running through these is a dependence of some sort--statistical or physical--among multiple failure events. However, the nature of the dependence is not the same in all these examples. An attempt is made to model situations, such as the above examples, which have been termed ''common mode failures.'' In doing so, it is found that standard probability concepts and terms, such as statistically dependent and independent events, and conditional and unconditional probabilities, suffice. Thus, it is proposed that the term ''common mode failures'' be dropped, at least from technical discussions of these problems. A corollary is that the complementary term, ''random failures,'' should also be dropped. The mathematical model presented may not cover all situations which have been termed ''common mode failures,'' but provides insight into the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the probabilities of these events

  9. Failure propagation tests and analysis at PNC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, H.; Miyake, O.; Daigo, Y.; Sato, M.

    1984-01-01

    Failure propagation tests have been conducted using the Large Leak Sodium Water Reaction Test Rig (SWAT-1) and the Steam Generator Safety Test Facility (SWAT-3) at PNC in order to establish the safety design of the LMFBR prototype Monju steam generators. Test objectives are to provide data for selecting a design basis leak (DBL), data on the time history of failure propagations, data on the mechanism of the failures, and data on re-use of tubes in the steam generators that have suffered leaks. Eighteen fundamental tests have been performed in an intermediate leak region using the SWAT-1 test rig, and ten failure propagation tests have been conducted in the region from a small leak to a large leak using the SWAT-3 test facility. From the test results it was concluded that a dominant mechanism was tube wastage, and it took more than one minute until each failure propagation occurred. Also, the total leak rate in full sequence simulation tests including a water dump was far less than that of one double-ended-guillotine (DEG) failure. Using such experimental data, a computer code, LEAP (Leak Enlargement and Propagation), has been developed for the purpose of estimating the possible maximum leak rate due to failure propagation. This paper describes the results of the failure propagation tests and the model structure and validation studies of the LEAP code. (author)

  10. Early failure analysis of machining centers: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Jiang Weiwei

    2001-01-01

    To eliminate the early failures and improve the reliability, nine ex-factory machining centers are traced under field conditions in workshops. Their early failure information throughout the ex-factory run-in test is collected. The field early failure database is constructed based on the collection of field early failure data and the codification of data. Early failure mode and effects analysis is performed to indicate the weak subsystem of a machining center or the troublemaker. The distribution of the time between early failures is analyzed and the optimal ex-factory run-in test time for machining center that may expose sufficiently the early failures and cost minimum is discussed. Suggestions how to arrange ex-factory run-in test and how to take actions to reduce early failures for machining center is proposed

  11. Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R

    2007-01-01

    .... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...

  12. Constructing Ontology for Knowledge Sharing of Materials Failure Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Materials failure indicates the fault with materials or components during their performance. To avoid the reoccurrence of similar failures, materials failure analysis is executed to investigate the reasons for the failure and to propose improved strategies. The whole procedure needs sufficient domain knowledge and also produces valuable new knowledge. However, the information about the materials failure analysis is usually retained by the domain expert, and its sharing is technically difficult. This phenomenon may seriously reduce the efficiency and decrease the veracity of the failure analysis. To solve this problem, this paper adopts ontology, a novel technology from the Semantic Web, as a tool for knowledge representation and sharing and describes the construction of the ontology to obtain information concerning the failure analysis, application area, materials, and failure cases. The ontology represented information is machine-understandable and can be easily shared through the Internet. At the same time, failure case intelligent retrieval, advanced statistics, and even automatic reasoning can be accomplished based on ontology represented knowledge. Obviously this can promote the knowledge sharing of materials service safety and improve the efficiency of failure analysis. The case of a nuclear power plant area is presented to show the details and benefits of this method.

  13. Uncertainty analysis with statistically correlated failure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modarres, M.; Dezfuli, H.; Roush, M.L.

    1987-01-01

    Likelihood of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree or sequences of an event tree is estimated from the failure probability of components that constitute the events of the fault/event tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. At present most fault tree calculations are based on uncorrelated component failure data. This chapter describes a methodology for assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees or frequency of occurrence of event tree sequences when event failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. Moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting the Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program, CORRELATE, was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. (author)

  14. Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dundulis, Gintautas; Žutautaitė, Inga; Janulionis, Remigijus; Ušpuras, Eugenijus; Rimkevičius, Sigitas; Eid, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well. - Highlights: • Degradation mechanisms of natural gas transmission pipelines. • Fracture mechanic analysis of the pipe with crack. • Stress evaluation of the pipe with critical crack. • Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis of gas pipeline. • Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability by Bayesian method.

  15. The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaxley, I L

    1998-03-01

    Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

  16. Failure analysis of prestressed concrete beam under impact loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, N.; Sonoda, Y.; Kobayashi, N.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a failure analysis of prestressed concrete (PC) beam under impact loading. At first, the failure analysis of PC beam section is performed by using the discrete section element method in order to obtain the dynamic bending moment-curvature relation. Secondary, the failure analysis of PC beam is performed by using the rigid panel-spring model. Finally, the numerical calculation is executed and is compared with the experimental results. It is found that this approach can simulate well the experiments at the local and overall failure of the PC beam as well as the impact load and the displacement-time relations. (author)

  17. Structures for common-cause failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1981-01-01

    Common-cause failure methodology and terminology have been reviewed and structured to provide a systematical basis for addressing and developing models and methods for quantification. The structure is based on (1) a specific set of definitions, (2) categories based on the way faults are attributable to a common cause, and (3) classes based on the time of entry and the time of elimination of the faults. The failure events are then characterized by their likelihood or frequency and the average residence time. The structure provides a basis for selecting computational models, collecting and evaluating data and assessing the importance of various failure types, and for developing effective defences against common-cause failure. The relationships of this and several other structures are described

  18. Economic sustainability in franchising: a model to predict franchisor success or failure

    OpenAIRE

    Calderón Monge, Esther; Pastor Sanz, Ivan .; Huerta Zavala, Pilar Angélica

    2017-01-01

    As a business model, franchising makes a major contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). A model that predicts franchisor success or failure is therefore necessary to ensure economic sustainability. In this study, such a model was developed by applying Lasso regression to a sample of franchises operating between 2002 and 2013. For franchises with the highest likelihood of survival, the franchise fees and the ratio of company-owned to franchised outlets were suited to the age ...

  19. Failure mode and effects analysis: an empirical comparison of failure mode scoring procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, Laura; Armitage, Gerry

    2010-12-01

    To empirically compare 2 different commonly used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) scoring procedures with respect to their resultant failure mode scores and prioritization: a mathematical procedure, where scores are assigned independently by FMEA team members and averaged, and a consensus procedure, where scores are agreed on by the FMEA team via discussion. A multidisciplinary team undertook a Healthcare FMEA of chemotherapy administration. This included mapping the chemotherapy process, identifying and scoring failure modes (potential errors) for each process step, and generating remedial strategies to counteract them. Failure modes were scored using both an independent mathematical procedure and a team consensus procedure. Almost three-fifths of the 30 failure modes generated were scored differently by the 2 procedures, and for just more than one-third of cases, the score discrepancy was substantial. Using the Healthcare FMEA prioritization cutoff score, almost twice as many failure modes were prioritized by the consensus procedure than by the mathematical procedure. This is the first study to empirically demonstrate that different FMEA scoring procedures can score and prioritize failure modes differently. It found considerable variability in individual team members' opinions on scores, which highlights the subjective and qualitative nature of failure mode scoring. A consensus scoring procedure may be most appropriate for FMEA as it allows variability in individuals' scores and rationales to become apparent and to be discussed and resolved by the team. It may also yield team learning and communication benefits unlikely to result from a mathematical procedure.

  20. Going South: Analysis of an Historic Project Engineering Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, John H.

    2009-01-01

    NASA's successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America's gift to all Mankind. NASA's accomplishments continue to amaze the world. With the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Americans once again tasked NASA to carry out a project that is expected to provide inspiration and economic stimulus to the United States and to the world. In preparation NASA has thoroughly examined space program precedents. There is, however, another precedent which has not been examined in this context but whose scope and environment in many ways parallel the VSE. This project was initiated by a team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $173 billion (in 2008 dollars), had pushed the envelope of technology, brought economic growth, established their country as the world leader in engineering, and been broadly accepted as that country's gift to all Mankind. The new project was again inspired by popular desire to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to Humanity. This effort was predicted to require eight years and $156 billion (2008 dollars). However, after nine years and expenditures of 96% beyond the baseline, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. This paper applies current project management metrics, such as earned value analysis, to review the strategic decisions in this historic failure and describe its ultimate collapse. Key mistakes are identified, and lessons are drawn which may prove useful in guiding the VSE.

  1. Economic analysis of fuel treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2012-01-01

    The economics of wildfire is complicated because wildfire behavior depends on the spatial and temporal scale at which management decisions made, and because of uncertainties surrounding the results of management actions. Like the wildfire processes they seek to manage, interventions through fire prevention programs, suppression, and fuels management are scale dependent...

  2. Failure analysis of stainless steel femur fixation plate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, P B; Mohammad, M

    2004-05-01

    Failure analysis was performed to investigate the failure of the femur fixation plate which was previously fixed on the femur of a girl. Radiography, metallography, fractography and mechanical testing were conducted in this study. The results show that the failure was due to the formation of notches on the femur plate. These notches act as stress raisers from where the cracks start to propagate. Finally fracture occurred on the femur plate and subsequently, the plate failed.

  3. An Economic Evaluation of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Heart Failure Patients in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, Simon; Degener, Fabian; Postma, Maarten J; Vemer, Pepijn

    2017-03-01

    In September 2014, the PARADIGM-HF trial showed the heart failure drug combination sacubitril/valsartan to be superior to enalapril for patients with a reduced ejection fraction. To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril in the Netherlands using the clinical data from the PARADIGM-HF trial. To compare sacubitril/valsartan and enalapril in a cost-effectiveness study, a Markov model was developed using the effectiveness data from the PARADIGM-HF trial. A health care payer's perspective was applied in the economic evaluation. The developed model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for sacubitril/valsartan at different per diem prices. The base-case analysis showed that sacubitril/valsartan can be cost-effective at maximum daily costs of €5.50 and €14.14 considering willingness-to-pay thresholds of €20,000 and €50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the model, identifying only the price of sacubitril/valsartan and the mortality within the sacubitril/valsartan group as significant drivers of the cost-effectiveness ratio. Sacubitril/valsartan was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY (€50,000 per QALY) in more than 80% of the replications with certainty at the price point of €3 (€10). Sacubitril/valsartan can be considered a cost-effective treatment at a daily price of €5.25. Unless priced lower than enalapril (sacubitril/valsartan is very unlikely to be cost-saving/dominant. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Failure analysis of tubes with wastages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prachuktam, S.; Reich, M.; Rajan, J.

    1979-01-01

    A finite element method for large strain calculation using the constitutive relation due to Hill was developed. This constitutive relation relates the co-rotational rate of the Kirchoff stress and deformation rate tensor which leads to a symmetric structure stiffness. This method is used to calculate failure pressures of degraded tubes

  5. Numerical Analysis of Solids at Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-20

    vector fields, leading to singular distributions of the fluid contents (fluid accumulation and drainage along the failure surface) while the fluid...and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign, September 29 2008. Final Report, FA9550-08-1-0410 19 6. “Finite Elements

  6. Failure Analysis of Storage Data Magnetic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ortiz–Prado A.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the conclusions about the corrosion mechanics in storage data magnetic systems (hard disk. It was done from the inspection of 198 units that were in service in nine different climatic regions characteristic for Mexico. The results allow to define trends about the failure forms and the factors that affect them. In turn, this study has analyzed the causes that led to mechanical failure and those due to deterioration by atmospheric corrosion. On the basis of the results obtained from the field sampling, demonstrates that the hard disk failure is fundamentally by mechanical effects. The deterioration by environmental effects were found in read-write heads, integrated circuits, printed circuit boards and in some of the electronic components of the controller card of the device, but not in magnetic storage surfaces. There fore, you can discard corrosion on the surface of the disk as the main kind of failure due to environmental deterioration. To avoid any inconvenience in the magnetic data storage system it is necessary to ensure sealing of the system.

  7. Lecture notes: meantime to failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanlen, R.C.

    1976-01-01

    A method is presented which affects the Quality Assurance Engineer's place in management decision making by giving him a working parameter to base sound engineering and management decisions. The theory used in Reliability Engineering to determine the mean-time-to-failure of a component or system is reviewed. The method presented derives the probability density function for the parameter of the exponential distribution. The exponential distribution is commonly used by industry to determine the reliability of a component or system when the failure rate is assumed to be constant. Some examples of N Reactor performance data are used. To be specific: The ball system data with 4.9 x 10 6 unit hours of service and 7 individual failures indicates a demonstrated 98.8 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period, and the diesel starts data with 7.2 x 10 5 unit hours of service and 1 failure indicates a demonstrated 94.4 percent reliability at a 95 percent confidence level for a 12 month mission period

  8. Problems of Overcoming Market Failures in the Context of Economic Crisis in the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Y. Pluiko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the manifestations of a market failure problem revealed during the economic crisis in the euro area, namely business cycles, market inability to ensure money circulation and avoid inflation. It is shown that the cyclicity of economic development has revealed in various degrees of economic contraction and different rates of its recovery. These differences have been exacerbated by the new procyclical factors emerged from the transition to a single currency. As for money circulation the crisis has almost no impact on the single currency functioning: the euro has maintained its position on the world market and properly performed money functions in the domestic. The goal to achieve economic development without inflation in the euro area generally has been solved successfully by the European Central Bank (ECB. However, due to the fact that the ECB in its monetary policy does not pay sufficient attention to the increased inflation in small and relatively poor countries, the crisis has been more acute in them than in large countries with low inflation. The goals of ensuring money circulation and avoiding inflation can be settled more effectively in the euro area in case of more tight coherence in economic policy and strengthening of supranational mechanisms of economic governance.

  9. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

  10. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  11. Computer aided approach to qualitative and quantitative common cause failure analysis for complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cate, C.L.; Wagner, D.P.; Fussell, J.B.

    1977-01-01

    Common cause failure analysis, also called common mode failure analysis, is an integral part of a complete system reliability analysis. Existing methods of computer aided common cause failure analysis are extended by allowing analysis of the complex systems often encountered in practice. The methods aid in identifying potential common cause failures and also address quantitative common cause failure analysis

  12. Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Coate; Brian Knight

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  13. Role of scanning electron microscope )SEM) in metal failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaiful Rizam Shamsudin; Hafizal Yazid; Mohd Harun; Siti Selina Abd Hamid; Nadira Kamarudin; Zaiton Selamat; Mohd Shariff Sattar; Muhamad Jalil

    2005-01-01

    Scanning electron microscope (SEM) is a scientific instrument that uses a beam of highly energetic electrons to examine the surface and phase distribution of specimens on a micro scale through the live imaging of secondary electrons (SE) and back-scattered electrons (BSE) images. One of the main activities of SEM Laboratory at MINT is for failure analysis on metal part and components. The capability of SEM is excellent for determining the root cause of metal failures such as ductility or brittleness, stress corrosion, fatigue and other types of failures. Most of our customers that request for failure analysis are from local petrochemical plants, manufacturers of automotive components, pipeline maintenance personnel and engineers who involved in the development of metal parts and component. This paper intends to discuss some of the technical concepts in failure analysis associated with SEM. (Author)

  14. X-framework: Space system failure analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, John Steven

    Space program and space systems failures result in financial losses in the multi-hundred million dollar range every year. In addition to financial loss, space system failures may also represent the loss of opportunity, loss of critical scientific, commercial and/or national defense capabilities, as well as loss of public confidence. The need exists to improve learning and expand the scope of lessons documented and offered to the space industry project team. One of the barriers to incorporating lessons learned include the way in which space system failures are documented. Multiple classes of space system failure information are identified, ranging from "sound bite" summaries in space insurance compendia, to articles in journals, lengthy data-oriented (what happened) reports, and in some rare cases, reports that treat not only the what, but also the why. In addition there are periodically published "corporate crisis" reports, typically issued after multiple or highly visible failures that explore management roles in the failure, often within a politically oriented context. Given the general lack of consistency, it is clear that a good multi-level space system/program failure framework with analytical and predictive capability is needed. This research effort set out to develop such a model. The X-Framework (x-fw) is proposed as an innovative forensic failure analysis approach, providing a multi-level understanding of the space system failure event beginning with the proximate cause, extending to the directly related work or operational processes and upward through successive management layers. The x-fw focus is on capability and control at the process level and examines: (1) management accountability and control, (2) resource and requirement allocation, and (3) planning, analysis, and risk management at each level of management. The x-fw model provides an innovative failure analysis approach for acquiring a multi-level perspective, direct and indirect causation of

  15. A quantitative method for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; Meesters, A.J.; Klingenberg, W.; Hicks, C.

    2012-01-01

    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is commonly used for designing maintenance routines by analysing potential failures, predicting their effect and facilitating preventive action. It is used to make decisions on operational and capital expenditure. The literature has reported that despite its

  16. Analysis of dependent failures in the ORNL precursor study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballard, G.M.

    1985-01-01

    The study of dependent failures (or common cause/mode failures) in the safety assessment of potentially hazardous plant is one of the significant areas of uncertainty in performing probabilistic safety studies. One major reason for this uncertainty is that data on dependent failures is apparently not readily available in sufficient quantity to assist in the development and validation of models. The incident reports that were compiled for the ORNL study on Precursors to Severe Core Damage Accidents (NUREG/CR-2497) provide an opportunity to look at the importance of dependent failures in the most significant incidents of recent reactor operations, to look at the success of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods in accounting for the contribution of dependent failures, and to look at the dependent failure incidents with the aim of identifying the most significant problem areas. In this paper an analysis has been made of the incidents compiled in NUREG/CR-2497 and events involving multiple failures which were not independent have been identified. From this analysis it is clear that dependent failures are a very significant contributor to the precursor incidents. The method of enumeration of accident frequency used in NUREG-2497 can be shown to take account of dependent failures and this may be a significant factor contributing to the apparent difference between the precursor accident frequency and typical PRA frequencies

  17. Failure to review STAT clinical laboratory requests and its economical impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Borja, Enrique; Villalba-Martinez, Celia; Barba-Serrano, Esther; Carratala-Calvo, Arturo

    2016-01-01

    Failure to follow-up laboratory test results has been described as one of the major processes contributing to unsafe patient care. Currently, most of the laboratories do not know with certainty not only their rate of missed (or unreviewed) requests but the economical cost and impact that this issue implies. The aim of our study was to measure that rate and calculate the resulting costs. In January 2015, we checked in our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) for every emergency request from 1(st) July 2011 to 30(th) June 2014, if they had been reviewed by any allowed user or not. 319,064 requests were ordered during that period of time. Results were expressed as "ordered requests", "missed requests" and its percentage. Additionally, total cost of missed requests was calculated in euros (€). "Non-productive days" were theorised (as the days producing requests that were not reviewed) based on these results. 7924 requests (2.5%) were never reviewed by clinicians. This represented a total cost of 203,039 € and 27 "non-productive" days in three years. Significant differences between inpatients, outpatients and emergency department as well as different emergencies units were found after application of statistical analysis. In terms of resources, never reviewed or missed requests appear to be a not negligible problem for the clinical laboratory management. Electronic result delivery, with electronic endorsement to indicate follow-up of requests along with better systems of electronic requesting should be investigated as a way of improving patient outcomes and save unnecessary expenses.

  18. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  20. Improved methods for dependent failure analysis in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballard, G.M.; Games, A.M.

    1988-01-01

    The basic design principle used in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plant is defence in depth. This normally takes the form of redundant equipment and systems which provide protection even if a number of equipment failures occur. Such redundancy is particularly effective in ensuring that multiple, independent equipment failures with the potential for jeopardising reactor safety will be rare events. However the achievement of high reliability has served to highlight the potentially dominant role of multiple, dependent failures of equipment and systems. Analysis of reactor operating experience has shown that dependent failure events are the major contributors to safety system failures and reactor incidents and accidents. In parallel PSA studies have shown that the results of a safety analysis are sensitive to assumptions made about the dependent failure (CCF) probability for safety systems. Thus a Westinghouse Analysis showed that increasing system dependent failure probabilities by a factor of 5 led to a factor 4 increase in core. This paper particularly refers to the engineering concepts underlying dependent failure assessment touching briefly on aspects of data. It is specifically not the intent of our work to develop a new mathematical model of CCF but to aid the use of existing models

  1. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-05-01

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U 3 O 8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Lee, H. M.; Oh, K. B.

    2003-12-01

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  3. Economic Analysis of Cyber Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallaher, Michael P; Rowe, Brent R; Rogozhin, Alex V; Link, Albert N

    2006-01-01

    .... However, few organizations attempt such analysis for their cyber security mechanisms. Key performance and evaluation metrics are not available, so organizations rely on qualitative assessments...

  4. Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...

  5. Economic analysis of EBT reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, J.T.; Uckan, N.A.; Lidsky, L.M.

    1977-01-01

    In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors

  6. Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures in a system failure mode, effects and criticality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowles, John B.; Pelaez, C.E.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a new technique, based on fuzzy logic, for prioritizing failures for corrective actions in a Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). As in a traditional criticality analysis, the assessment is based on the severity, frequency of occurrence, and detectability of an item failure. However, these parameters are here represented as members of a fuzzy set, combined by matching them against rules in a rule base, evaluated with min-max inferencing, and then defuzzified to assess the riskiness of the failure. This approach resolves some of the problems in traditional methods of evaluation and it has several advantages compared to strictly numerical methods: 1) it allows the analyst to evaluate the risk associated with item failure modes directly using the linguistic terms that are employed in making the criticality assessment; 2) ambiguous, qualitative, or imprecise information, as well as quantitative data, can be used in the assessment and they are handled in a consistent manner; and 3) it gives a more flexible structure for combining the severity, occurrence, and detectability parameters. Two fuzzy logic based approaches for assessing criticality are presented. The first is based on the numerical rankings used in a conventional Risk Priority Number (RPN) calculation and uses crisp inputs gathered from the user or extracted from a reliability analysis. The second, which can be used early in the design process when less detailed information is available, allows fuzzy inputs and also illustrates the direct use of the linguistic rankings defined for the RPN calculations

  7. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

  8. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA): A Bibliography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a bottom-up analytical process that identifies process hazards, which helps managers understand vulnerabilities of systems, as well as assess and mitigate risk. It is one of several engineering tools and techniques available to program and project managers aimed at increasing the likelihood of safe and successful NASA programs and missions. This bibliography references 465 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, failure modes or failure analysis, in either the basic index of the major subject terms.

  9. Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube

    OpenAIRE

    S.W. Liu; W.Z. Wang; C.J. Liu

    2017-01-01

    Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube is presented in this work. In order to examine the causes of failure, various techniques including visual inspection, chemical analysis, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were carried out. Tube wall thickness measurements were performed on the ruptured tube. The fire-facing side of the tube was observed to have experienced significant wall thinning. The composition of the matrix material of the tu...

  10. Testing Realistic Disaster Scenarios for Space Weather: The Economic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, M.; Oughton, E. J.; Hapgood, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    The socio-economic impacts of space weather have been under-researched, despite this threat featuring on the UK's National Risk Register. In this paper, a range of Realistic Disaster Scenarios due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure are tested. We use regional Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) studies to identify areas in the UK high-voltage power system deemed to be high-risk. The potential level of disruption arising from a large geomagnetic disturbance in these `hot spots' on local economic activity is explored. Electricity is a necessary factor of production without which businesses cannot operate, so even short term power loss can cause significant loss of value. We utilise a spatially disaggregated approach that focuses on quantifying employment disruption by industrial sector, and relating this to direct Gross Value Added loss. We then aggregate this direct loss into a set of shocks to undertake macroeconomic modelling of different scenarios, to obtain the total economic impact which includes both direct and indirect supply chain disruption effects. These results are reported for a range of temporal periods, with the minimum increment being a one-hour blackout. This work furthers our understanding of the economic impacts of space weather, and can inform future reviews of the UK's National Risk Register. The key contribution of the paper is that the results can be used in the future cost-benefit analysis of investment in space weather forecasting.

  11. Failure analysis of PB-1 (EBTS Be/Cu mockup)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odegard, B.C. Jr.; Cadden, C.H.

    1996-11-01

    Failure analysis was done on PB-1 (series of Be tiles joined to Cu alloy) following a tile failure during a high heat flux experiment in EBTS (electron beam test system). This heat flux load simulated ambient conditions inside ITER; the Be tiles were bonded to the Cu alloy using low-temperature diffusion bonding, which is being considered for fabricating plasma facing components in ITER. Results showed differences between the EBTS failure and a failure during a room temperature tensile test. The latter occurred at the Cu-Be interface in an intermetallic phase formed by reaction of the two metals at the bonding temperature. Fracture strengths measured by these tests were over 300 MPa. The high heat flux specimens failed at the Cu-Cu diffusion bond. Fracture morphology in both cases was a mixed mode of dimple rupture and transgranular cleavage. Several explanations for this difference in failure mechanism are suggested

  12. FRAC (failure rate analysis code): a computer program for analysis of variance of failure rates. An application user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Beckman, R.J.; McInteer, C.R.

    1982-03-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) require estimates of the failure rates of various components whose failure modes appear in the event and fault trees used to quantify accident sequences. Several reliability data bases have been designed for use in providing the necessary reliability data to be used in constructing these estimates. In the nuclear industry, the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS) and the In-Plant Reliability Data System (IRPDS), among others, were designed for this purpose. An important characteristic of such data bases is the selection and identification of numerous factors used to classify each component that is reported and the subsequent failures of each component. However, the presence of such factors often complicates the analysis of reliability data in the sense that it is inappropriate to group (that is, pool) data for those combinations of factors that yield significantly different failure rate values. These types of data can be analyzed by analysis of variance. FRAC (Failure Rate Analysis Code) is a computer code that performs an analysis of variance of failure rates. In addition, FRAC provides failure rate estimates

  13. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2002-12-01

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  14. Root cause of failure analysis and the system engineer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppock, M.S.; Hartwig, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    In an industry where ever-increasing emphasis is being placed on root cause of failure determination, it is imperative that a successful nuclear utility have an effective means of identifying failures and performing the necessary analyses. The current Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) good practice, OE-907, root-cause analysis, gives references to methodology that will help determine breakdowns in procedures, programs, or design but gives very little guidance on how or when to perform component root cause of failure analyses. The system engineers of nuclear utilities are considered the focal point for their respective systems and are required by most programs to investigate component failures. The problem that the system engineer faces in determining a component root cause of failures lies in acquisition of the necessary data to identify the need to perform the analysis and in having the techniques and equipment available to perform it. The system engineers at the Palo Verde nuclear generating station routinely perform detailed component root cause of failure analyses. The Palo Verde program provides the system engineers with the information necessary to identify when a component root cause of failure is required. Palo Verde also has the necessary equipment on-site to perform the analyses

  15. Failure analysis of a helicopter's main rotor bearing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahzad, M.; Qureshi, A.H.; Waqas, H.; Hussain, N.; Ali, N.

    2011-01-01

    Presented results report some of the findings of a detailed failure analysis carried out on a main rotor hub assembly, which had symptoms of burning and mechanical damage. The analysis suggests environmental degradation of the grease which causes pitting on bearing-balls. The consequent inefficient lubrication raises the temperature which leads to the smearing of cage material (brass) on the bearing-balls and ultimately causes the failure. The analysis has been supported by the microstructural studies, thermal analysis and micro-hardness testing performed on the affected main rotor bearing parts. (author)

  16. Failure mode analysis of a PCRV. Influence of some hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmermann, T.; Saugy, B.; Rebora, B.

    1975-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the most recent developments and results obtained using a mathematical model for the non-linear analysis of massive reinforced and prestressed concrete strucures developed by the IPEN at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Lausanne. The method is based on three-dimensional isoparametric finite elements. A linear solution is adapted step by step to the idealized behavior laws of the materials up to the failure of the structure. The laws proposed here for the non-linear behavior of concrete and steel have been described elsewhere but a simple extension to the time-dependent behavior is presented. A numerical algorithm for the superposition of creep deformations is also proposed, the basic creep law being supposed to satisfy a power expression. Time-dependent failure is discussed. The calculus of a PCRV of a helium cooled fast reactor is then performed and the influence of the liner on the failure mode is analyzed. The failure analysis under increasing internal pressure is run at the present time and the influence of an eventual pressure in the cracks is being investigated. The paper aims mainly to demonstrate the accuracy of a failure analysis by three-dimensional finite-elements and to compare it with a model test, in particular when complete deformation and failure tests of the materials are available. The proposed model has already been extensively tested on simple structures and has proved to be useful for the analysis of different simplifying hypotheses

  17. Debugging Nondeterministic Failures in Linux Programs through Replay Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakaiba Majeed

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Reproducing a failure is the first and most important step in debugging because it enables us to understand the failure and track down its source. However, many programs are susceptible to nondeterministic failures that are hard to reproduce, which makes debugging extremely difficult. We first address the reproducibility problem by proposing an OS-level replay system for a uniprocessor environment that can capture and replay nondeterministic events needed to reproduce a failure in Linux interactive and event-based programs. We then present an analysis method, called replay analysis, based on the proposed record and replay system to diagnose concurrency bugs in such programs. The replay analysis method uses a combination of static analysis, dynamic tracing during replay, and delta debugging to identify failure-inducing memory access patterns that lead to concurrency failure. The experimental results show that the presented record and replay system has low-recording overhead and hence can be safely used in production systems to catch rarely occurring bugs. We also present few concurrency bug case studies from real-world applications to prove the effectiveness of the proposed bug diagnosis framework.

  18. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Assistant Tool Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Melissa; Malin, Jane T.

    2013-01-01

    An effort to determine the feasibility of a software tool to assist in Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been completed. This new and unique approach to FMEA uses model based systems engineering concepts to recommend failure modes, causes, and effects to the user after they have made several selections from pick lists about a component s functions and inputs/outputs. Recommendations are made based on a library using common failure modes identified over the course of several major human spaceflight programs. However, the tool could be adapted for use in a wide range of applications from NASA to the energy industry.

  19. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Assistant Tool Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Melissa D.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.

    2013-09-01

    An effort to determine the feasibility of a software tool to assist in Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been completed. This new and unique approach to FMEA uses model based systems engineering concepts to recommend failure modes, causes, and effects to the user after they have made several selections from pick lists about a component's functions and inputs/outputs. Recommendations are made based on a library using common failure modes identified over the course of several major human spaceflight programs. However, the tool could be adapted for use in a wide range of applications from NASA to the energy industry.

  20. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  1. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  2. Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...

  3. Creep failure analysis of butt welded tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browne, R.J.; Parker, J.D.; Walters, D.J.

    1981-01-01

    As part of a major research programme to investigate the influence of butt welds on the life expectancy of tubular components, a series of internal-pressure, stress-rupture tests have been carried out. Thick walled 1/2Cr 1/2Mo 1/4V tube specimens were welded with mild steel, 1Cr 1/2Mo steel, 2 1/4Cr 1Mo steel or nominally matching 1/2Cr 1/2Mo 1/4V steel to give a wide range of weld metal creep strengths relative to the parent tube. The weldments were tested at 565 0 C at two values of internal pressure, and gave failure lives of up to 44,000 hrs. Finite element techniques have been used to determine the stationary state stress distribution in the weldment which was represented by a three material model. Significant stress redistribution was indicated and these results enabled the position and orientation of cracking and the rupture life to be predicted. The theoretical and experimental results have been used to highlight the limitations of current design methods which are based on the application of the mean diameter hoop stress to the parent material stress rupture data. (author)

  4. Advanced approaches to failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Vykydal

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The present paper explores advanced approaches to the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis which take into account the costs associated with occurrence of failures during the manufacture of a product. Different approaches are demonstrated using an example FMEA application to production of drawn wire. Their purpose is to determine risk levels, while taking account of the above-mentioned costs. Finally, the resulting priority levels are compared for developing actions mitigating the risks.

  5. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  6. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  7. Failure analysis of vise jaw holders for hacksaw machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Essam Ali Al-Bahkali

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Failure analysis in mechanical components has been investigated in many studies in the last few years. Failure analysis and prevention are important functions in all engineering disciplines. Materials engineers are often the lead role in the analysis of failures, where a component or product fails in service or if a failure occurs during manufacturing or production processing. In any case, one must determine the cause of the failure to prevent future occurrences and/or to improve the performance of the device, component or structure. For example, the vise jaw holders of hacksaws can break due to accidental heavy loads or machine misuse. The parts that break are the stationary and movable vise jaw holders and the connecter power screw between the holders. To investigate the failure of these components, a three-dimensional finite element model for stress analysis was performed. First, the analysis identified the broken components of the hacksaw machine. In addition, the type of materials of the broken parts was identified, a CAD model was built, and the hacksaw mechanism was analyzed to determine the accurate applied loads on the broken parts. After analyzing the model using Abaqus CAE software, the results showed that the location of the high stresses was identical with the high-stress locations in the original, broken parts. Furthermore, the power screw was subjected to a high load, which deformed the power screw. Also, the stationary vise jaw holder was broken by impact because it was not touched by the power screw until the movable vise jaw holder broke. A conclusion is drawn from the failure analysis and a way to improve the design of the broken parts is suggested.

  8. Extending Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Approach for Reliability Analysis at the Software Architecture Design Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sözer, Hasan; Tekinerdogan, B.; Aksit, Mehmet; de Lemos, Rogerio; Gacek, Cristina

    2007-01-01

    Several reliability engineering approaches have been proposed to identify and recover from failures. A well-known and mature approach is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method that is usually utilized together with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to analyze and diagnose the causes of failures.

  9. Failure analysis of a repairable system: The case study of a cam-driven reciprocating pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudenhoeffer, Donald D.

    1994-09-01

    This thesis supplies a statistical and economic tool for analysis of the failure characteristics of one typical piece of equipment under evaluation: a cam-driven reciprocating pump used in the submarine's distillation system. Comprehensive statistical techniques and parametric modeling are employed to identify and quantify pump failure characteristics. Specific areas of attention include: the derivation of an optimal maximum replacement interval based on costs, an evaluation of the mission reliability for the pump as a function of pump age, and a calculation of the expected times between failures. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate current maintenance practices of time-based replacement and examine the consequences of different replacement intervals in terms of costs and mission reliability. Tradeoffs exist between cost savings and system reliability that must be fully understood prior to making any policy decisions.

  10. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  11. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

    2015-12-01

    Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

  12. The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-07-01

    This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

  13. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Process Equipment Failure Mode Analysis in a Chemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nasl Seraji

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Prevention of potential accidents and safety promotion in chemical processes requires systematic safety management in them. The main objective of this study was analysis of important process equipment components failure modes and effects in H2S and CO2  isolation from extracted natural gas process.   Methods   This study was done in sweetening unit of an Iranian gas refinery. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA used for identification of process equipments failures.   Results   Totally 30 failures identified and evaluated using FMEA. P-1 blower's blade breaking and sour gas pressure control valve bearing tight moving had maximum risk Priority number (RPN, P-1 body corrosion and increasing plug lower side angle of reach DEAlevel control valve  in tower - 1 were minimum calculated RPN.   Conclusion   By providing a reliable documentation system for equipment failures and  incidents recording, maintaining of basic information for later safety assessments would be  possible. Also, the probability of failures and effects could be minimized by conducting preventive maintenance.

  15. Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, John M.; Hill, Ashely D.; Beard, Bernard B.

    2011-01-01

    Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise.

  16. The analysis of failure data in the presence of critical and degraded failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haugen, Knut; Hokstad, Per; Sandtorv, Helge

    1997-01-01

    Reported failures are often classified into severityclasses, e.g., as critical or degraded. The critical failures correspond to loss of function(s) and are those of main concern. The rate of critical failures is usually estimated by the number of observed critical failures divided by the exposure time, thus ignoring the observed degraded failures. In the present paper failure data are analyzed, applying an alternative estimate for the critical failure rate, also taking the number of observed degraded failures into account. The model includes two alternative failure mechanisms, one being of the shock type, immediately leading to a critical failure, another resulting in a gradual deterioration, leading to a degraded failure before the critical failure occurs. Failure data on safety valves from the OREDA (Offshore REliability DAta) data base are analyzed using this model. The estimate for the critical failure rate is obtained and compared with the standard estimate

  17. Failure Propagation Modeling and Analysis via System Interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety-critical systems must be shown to be acceptably safe to deploy and use in their operational environment. One of the key concerns of developing safety-critical systems is to understand how the system behaves in the presence of failures, regardless of whether that failure is triggered by the external environment or caused by internal errors. Safety assessment at the early stages of system development involves analysis of potential failures and their consequences. Increasingly, for complex systems, model-based safety assessment is becoming more widely used. In this paper we propose an approach for safety analysis based on system interface models. By extending interaction models on the system interface level with failure modes as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support could be provided for much of the failure analysis. We focus on fault modeling and on how to compute minimal cut sets. Particularly, we explore state space reconstruction strategy and bounded searching technique to reduce the number of states that need to be analyzed, which remarkably improves the efficiency of cut sets searching algorithm.

  18. Economic Analysis of Horticultural Enterprises in Yenagoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was on Economic analysis of horticultural enterprises in Yenagoa metropolis of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. A total of 8 horticultural enterprises were chosen through a pilot survey to form the sample size. Results show that horticultural farming is an activity for both males and females. A greater number of the ...

  19. Comparative Economic Analysis of Beekeeping Using Traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out in Tabora and Katavi regions in the miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The overall objective of the study was to undertake a comparative economic analysis of beekeeping using improved or traditional beehives. Data were collected from 198 beekeepers that were randomly selected from a sampling ...

  20. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  1. The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallis, George

    2015-01-01

    Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…

  2. Failure modes and effects analysis of fusion magnet systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmermann, M.; Kazimi, M.S.; Siu, N.O.; Thome, R.J.

    1988-12-01

    A failure modes and consequence analysis of fusion magnet system is an important contributor towards enhancing the design by improving the reliability and reducing the risk associated with the operation of magnet systems. In the first part of this study, a failure mode analysis of a superconducting magnet system is performed. Building on the functional breakdown and the fault tree analysis of the Toroidal Field (TF) coils of the Next European Torus (NET), several subsystem levels are added and an overview of potential sources of failures in a magnet system is provided. The failure analysis is extended to the Poloidal Field (PF) magnet system. Furthermore, an extensive analysis of interactions within the fusion device caused by the operation of the PF magnets is presented in the form of an Interaction Matrix. A number of these interactions may have significant consequences for the TF magnet system particularly interactions triggered by electrical failures in the PF magnet system. In the second part of this study, two basic categories of electrical failures in the PF magnet system are examined: short circuits between the terminals of external PF coils, and faults with a constant voltage applied at external PF coil terminals. An electromagnetic model of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) is used to examine the mechanical load conditions for the PF and the TF coils resulting from these fault scenarios. It is found that shorts do not pose large threats to the PF coils. Also, the type of plasma disruption has little impact on the net forces on the PF and the TF coils. 39 refs., 30 figs., 12 tabs

  3. Development of component failure data for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fray, R.R.; Moulia, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the quantification and utilization of seismic failure data used in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Risk Study. A single variable representation of earthquake severity that uses peak horizontal ground acceleration to characterize earthquake severity was employed. The use of a multiple variable representation would allow direct consideration of vertical accelerations and the spectral nature of earthquakes but would have added such complexity that the study would not have been feasible. Vertical accelerations and spectral nature were indirectly considered because component failure data were derived from design analyses, qualification tests and engineering judgment that did include such considerations. Two types of functions were used to describe component failure probabilities. Ramp functions were used for components, such as piping and structures, qualified by stress analysis. 'Anchor points' for ramp functions were selected by assuming a zero probability of failure at code allowable stress levels and unity probability of failure at ultimate stress levels. The accelerations corresponding to allowable and ultimate stress levels were determined by conservatively assuming a linear relationship between seismic stress and ground acceleration. Step functions were used for components, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, qualified by testing. Anchor points for step functions were selected by assuming a unity probability of failure above the qualification acceleration. (orig./HP)

  4. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    OpenAIRE

    P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; E.C. Webb

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  5. Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.W. Liu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Failure analysis of the boiler water-wall tube is presented in this work. In order to examine the causes of failure, various techniques including visual inspection, chemical analysis, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were carried out. Tube wall thickness measurements were performed on the ruptured tube. The fire-facing side of the tube was observed to have experienced significant wall thinning. The composition of the matrix material of the tube meets the requirements of the relevant standards. Microscopic examinations showed that the spheroidization of pearlite is not very obvious. The failure mechanism is identified as a result of the significant localized wall thinning of the boiler water-wall tube due to oxidation.

  6. Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for Gamma Knife radiosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Andy Yuanguang; Bhatnagar, Jagdish; Bednarz, Greg; Flickinger, John; Arai, Yoshio; Vacsulka, Jonet; Feng, Wenzheng; Monaco, Edward; Niranjan, Ajay; Lunsford, L Dade; Huq, M Saiful

    2017-11-01

    Gamma Knife radiosurgery is a highly precise and accurate treatment technique for treating brain diseases with low risk of serious error that nevertheless could potentially be reduced. We applied the AAPM Task Group 100 recommended failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) tool to develop a risk-based quality management program for Gamma Knife radiosurgery. A team consisting of medical physicists, radiation oncologists, neurosurgeons, radiation safety officers, nurses, operating room technologists, and schedulers at our institution and an external physicist expert on Gamma Knife was formed for the FMEA study. A process tree and a failure mode table were created for the Gamma Knife radiosurgery procedures using the Leksell Gamma Knife Perfexion and 4C units. Three scores for the probability of occurrence (O), the severity (S), and the probability of no detection for failure mode (D) were assigned to each failure mode by 8 professionals on a scale from 1 to 10. An overall risk priority number (RPN) for each failure mode was then calculated from the averaged O, S, and D scores. The coefficient of variation for each O, S, or D score was also calculated. The failure modes identified were prioritized in terms of both the RPN scores and the severity scores. The established process tree for Gamma Knife radiosurgery consists of 10 subprocesses and 53 steps, including a subprocess for frame placement and 11 steps that are directly related to the frame-based nature of the Gamma Knife radiosurgery. Out of the 86 failure modes identified, 40 Gamma Knife specific failure modes were caused by the potential for inappropriate use of the radiosurgery head frame, the imaging fiducial boxes, the Gamma Knife helmets and plugs, the skull definition tools as well as other features of the GammaPlan treatment planning system. The other 46 failure modes are associated with the registration, imaging, image transfer, contouring processes that are common for all external beam radiation therapy

  7. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  8. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  9. Rooting out causes in failure analysis; Risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Graeme

    2010-07-01

    The Deepwater Horizon disaster was a terrible reminder of the consequences of equipment failure on facilities operating in challenging environments. Thankfully catastrophes on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon are rare, but equipment failure is a daily occurrence on installations around the globe. The consequences range from short unexpected downtime, to a total stop on production. from a brief burst of flaring to lasting environmental damage and from the momentary discomfiture of a worker to incapability or death. (Author)

  10. Economic burden of heart failure: investigating outpatient and inpatient costs in Abeokuta, Southwest Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogah, Okechukwu S; Stewart, Simon; Onwujekwe, Obinna E; Falase, Ayodele O; Adebayo, Saheed O; Olunuga, Taiwo; Sliwa, Karen

    2014-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a deadly, disabling and often costly syndrome world-wide. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data describing its economic impact in sub Saharan Africa; a region in which the number of relatively younger cases will inevitably rise. Heath economic data were extracted from a prospective HF registry in a tertiary hospital situated in Abeokuta, southwest Nigeria. Outpatient and inpatient costs were computed from a representative cohort of 239 HF cases including personnel, diagnostic and treatment resources used for their management over a 12-month period. Indirect costs were also calculated. The annual cost per person was then calculated. Mean age of the cohort was 58.0 ± 15.1 years and 53.1% were men. The total computed cost of care of HF in Abeokuta was 76, 288,845 Nigerian Naira (US$508, 595) translating to 319,200 Naira (US$2,128 US Dollars) per patient per year. The total cost of in-patient care (46% of total health care expenditure) was estimated as 34,996,477 Naira (about 301,230 US dollars). This comprised of 17,899,977 Naira- 50.9% ($US114,600) and 17,806,500 naira -49.1%($US118,710) for direct and in-direct costs respectively. Out-patient cost was estimated as 41,292,368 Naira ($US 275,282). The relatively high cost of outpatient care was largely due to cost of transportation for monthly follow up visits. Payments were mostly made through out-of-pocket spending. The economic burden of HF in Nigeria is particularly high considering, the relatively young age of affected cases, a minimum wage of 18,000 Naira ($US120) per month and considerable component of out-of-pocket spending for those affected. Health reforms designed to mitigate the individual to societal burden imposed by the syndrome are required.

  11. Economic burden of heart failure: investigating outpatient and inpatient costs in Abeokuta, Southwest Nigeria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okechukwu S Ogah

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF is a deadly, disabling and often costly syndrome world-wide. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data describing its economic impact in sub Saharan Africa; a region in which the number of relatively younger cases will inevitably rise. METHODS: Heath economic data were extracted from a prospective HF registry in a tertiary hospital situated in Abeokuta, southwest Nigeria. Outpatient and inpatient costs were computed from a representative cohort of 239 HF cases including personnel, diagnostic and treatment resources used for their management over a 12-month period. Indirect costs were also calculated. The annual cost per person was then calculated. RESULTS: Mean age of the cohort was 58.0 ± 15.1 years and 53.1% were men. The total computed cost of care of HF in Abeokuta was 76, 288,845 Nigerian Naira (US$508, 595 translating to 319,200 Naira (US$2,128 US Dollars per patient per year. The total cost of in-patient care (46% of total health care expenditure was estimated as 34,996,477 Naira (about 301,230 US dollars. This comprised of 17,899,977 Naira- 50.9% ($US114,600 and 17,806,500 naira -49.1%($US118,710 for direct and in-direct costs respectively. Out-patient cost was estimated as 41,292,368 Naira ($US 275,282. The relatively high cost of outpatient care was largely due to cost of transportation for monthly follow up visits. Payments were mostly made through out-of-pocket spending. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of HF in Nigeria is particularly high considering, the relatively young age of affected cases, a minimum wage of 18,000 Naira ($US120 per month and considerable component of out-of-pocket spending for those affected. Health reforms designed to mitigate the individual to societal burden imposed by the syndrome are required.

  12. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 0 C/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing. (semiconductor devices)

  13. Failure criterion of concrete type material and punching failure analysis of thick mortar plate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, T.; Kuroiwa, M.; Irobe, M.

    1979-01-01

    In this paper falure surface of concrete type material is proposed and its validity to structural analysis is examined. The study is an introductory part of evaluation for ultimate strength of reinforced and prestressed concrete structures in reactor technology. The failure surface is expressed in a linear form in terms of octahedral normal and shear stresses. Coefficient of the latter stress is given by a trigonometric series in threefold angle of similarity. Hence, its meridians are multilinear and traces of its deviatoric sections are smooth curves having periodicity of 2π/3 around space diagonal in principal stress space. The mathematical expression of the surface has an arbitraty number of parameters so that material test results are well reflected. To confirm the effectiveness of proposed failure criterion, experiment and numerical analysis by the finite element method on punching failure of thick mortar plate in axial symmetry are compared. In the numerical procedure yield surface of the material is assumed to exist mainly in compression region, since a brittle cleavage or elastic fracture occurs in the concrete type material under stress state with tension, while a ductile or plastic fracture occurs under compressive stress state. (orig.)

  14. Evaluating wood failure in plywood shear by optical image analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles W. McMillin

    1984-01-01

    This exploratory study evaulates the potential of using an automatic image analysis method to measure percent wood failure in plywood shear specimens. The results suggest that this method my be as accurate as the visual method in tracking long-term gluebond quality. With further refinement, the method could lead to automated equipment replacing the subjective visual...

  15. Failure analysis of multiple delaminated composite plates due

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present work aims at the first ply failure analysis of laminated composite plates with arbitrarily located multiple delaminations subjected to transverse static load as well as impact. The theoretical formulation is based on a simple multiple delamination model. Conventional first order shear deformation is assumed using ...

  16. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian

    2017-01-01

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  17. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)

    2017-02-20

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  18. Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee

    1997-01-01

    During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  19. Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

  20. Failure analysis of carbide fuels under transient overpower (TOP) conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, D.H.

    1980-06-01

    The failure of carbide fuels in the Fast Test Reactor (FTR) under Transient Overpower (TOP) conditions has been examined. The Beginning-of-Cycle Four (BOC-4) all-oxide base case, at $.50/sec ramp rate was selected as the reference case. A coupling between the advanced fuel performance code UNCLE-T and HCDA Code MELT-IIIA was necessary for the analysis. UNCLE-T was used to determine cladding failure and fuel preconditioning which served as initial conditions for MELT-III calculations. MELT-IIIA determined the time of molten fuel ejection from fuel pin

  1. Failure mode and effects analysis outputs: are they valid?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shebl, Nada Atef; Franklin, Bryony Dean; Barber, Nick

    2012-06-10

    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a prospective risk assessment tool that has been widely used within the aerospace and automotive industries and has been utilised within healthcare since the early 1990s. The aim of this study was to explore the validity of FMEA outputs within a hospital setting in the United Kingdom. Two multidisciplinary teams each conducted an FMEA for the use of vancomycin and gentamicin. Four different validity tests were conducted: Face validity: by comparing the FMEA participants' mapped processes with observational work. Content validity: by presenting the FMEA findings to other healthcare professionals. Criterion validity: by comparing the FMEA findings with data reported on the trust's incident report database. Construct validity: by exploring the relevant mathematical theories involved in calculating the FMEA risk priority number. Face validity was positive as the researcher documented the same processes of care as mapped by the FMEA participants. However, other healthcare professionals identified potential failures missed by the FMEA teams. Furthermore, the FMEA groups failed to include failures related to omitted doses; yet these were the failures most commonly reported in the trust's incident database. Calculating the RPN by multiplying severity, probability and detectability scores was deemed invalid because it is based on calculations that breach the mathematical properties of the scales used. There are significant methodological challenges in validating FMEA. It is a useful tool to aid multidisciplinary groups in mapping and understanding a process of care; however, the results of our study cast doubt on its validity. FMEA teams are likely to need different sources of information, besides their personal experience and knowledge, to identify potential failures. As for FMEA's methodology for scoring failures, there were discrepancies between the teams' estimates and similar incidents reported on the trust's incident

  2. Common Cause Failure Analysis for the Digital Plant Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kagn, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2005-01-01

    Safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants adopt the multiple-redundancy design in order to reduce the risk from the single component failure. The digitalized safety-signal generation system is also designed based on the multiple-redundancy strategy which consists of more redundant components. The level of the redundant design of digital systems is usually higher than those of conventional mechanical systems. This higher redundancy would clearly reduce the risk from the single failure of components, but raise the importance of the common cause failure (CCF) analysis. This research aims to develop the practical and realistic method for modeling the CCF in digital safety-critical systems. We propose a simple and practical framework for assessing the CCF probability of digital equipment. Higher level of redundancy causes the difficulty of CCF analysis because it results in impractically large number of CCF events in the fault tree model when we use conventional CCF modeling methods. We apply the simplified alpha-factor (SAF) method to the digital system CCF analysis. The precedent study has shown that SAF method is quite realistic but simple when we consider carefully system success criteria. The first step for using the SAF method is the analysis of target system for determining the function failure cases. That is, the success criteria of the system could be derived from the target system's function and configuration. Based on this analysis, we can calculate the probability of single CCF event which represents the CCF events resulting in the system failure. In addition to the application of SAF method, in order to accommodate the other characteristics of digital technology, we develop a simple concept and several equations for practical use

  3. Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.

  4. Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno

  5. PACC information management code for common cause failures analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega Prieto, P.; Garcia Gay, J.; Mira McWilliams, J.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the PACC code, which, through an adequate data management, makes the task of computerized common-mode failure analysis easier. PACC processes and generates information in order to carry out the corresponding qualitative analysis, by means of the boolean technique of transformation of variables, and the quantitative analysis either using one of several parametric methods or a direct data-base. As far as the qualitative analysis is concerned, the code creates several functional forms for the transformation equations according to the user's choice. These equations are subsequently processed by boolean manipulation codes, such as SETS. The quantitative calculations of the code can be carried out in two different ways: either starting from a common cause data-base, or through parametric methods, such as the Binomial Failure Rate Method, the Basic Parameters Method or the Multiple Greek Letter Method, among others. (orig.)

  6. TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huq, M.

    2015-01-01

    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  7. TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, M. [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

  8. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

  9. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J. Sebei

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different

  10. Statistical Analysis Of Failure Strength Of Material Using Weibull Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Entin Hartini; Mike Susmikanti; Antonius Sitompul

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of ceramic and glass materials strength a statistical approach is necessary Strength of ceramic and glass depend on its measure and size distribution of flaws in these material. The distribution of strength for ductile material is narrow and close to a Gaussian distribution while strength of brittle materials as ceramic and glass following Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is an indicator of the failure of material strength resulting from a distribution of flaw size. In this paper, cumulative probability of material strength to failure probability, cumulative probability of failure versus fracture stress and cumulative probability of reliability of material were calculated. Statistical criteria calculation supporting strength analysis of Silicon Nitride material were done utilizing MATLAB. (author)

  11. Analysis of valve failures from the NUCLARR data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, L.M.

    1997-11-01

    The Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) contains data on component failures with categorical and qualifying information such as component design, normal operating state, system application and safety grade information which is important to the development of risk-based component surveillance testing requirements. This report presents descriptions and results of analyses of valve component failure data and covariate information available in the document Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability Data Manual, Part 3: Hardware Component Failure Data (NUCLARR Data Manual). Although there are substantial records on valve performance, there are many categories of the corresponding descriptors and qualifying information for which specific values are missing. Consequently, this limits the data available for analysis of covariate effects. This report presents cross tabulations by different covariate categories and limited modeling of covariate effects for data subsets with substantive non-missing covariate information

  12. Photovoltaic module reliability improvement through application testing and failure analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, L. N.; Shumka, A.

    1982-01-01

    During the first four years of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Photovoltatic Program, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project purchased about 400 kW of photovoltaic modules for test and experiments. In order to identify, report, and analyze test and operational problems with the Block Procurement modules, a problem/failure reporting and analysis system was implemented by the LSA Project with the main purpose of providing manufacturers with feedback from test and field experience needed for the improvement of product performance and reliability. A description of the more significant types of failures is presented, taking into account interconnects, cracked cells, dielectric breakdown, delamination, and corrosion. Current design practices and reliability evaluations are also discussed. The conducted evaluation indicates that current module designs incorporate damage-resistant and fault-tolerant features which address field failure mechanisms observed to date.

  13. Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

  14. Sensor Failure Detection of FASSIP System using Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudarno; Juarsa, Mulya; Santosa, Kussigit; Deswandri; Sunaryo, Geni Rina

    2018-02-01

    In the nuclear reactor accident of Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, the damages of core and pressure vessel were caused by the failure of its active cooling system (diesel generator was inundated by tsunami). Thus researches on passive cooling system for Nuclear Power Plant are performed to improve the safety aspects of nuclear reactors. The FASSIP system (Passive System Simulation Facility) is an installation used to study the characteristics of passive cooling systems at nuclear power plants. The accuracy of sensor measurement of FASSIP system is essential, because as the basis for determining the characteristics of a passive cooling system. In this research, a sensor failure detection method for FASSIP system is developed, so the indication of sensor failures can be detected early. The method used is Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimension of the sensor, with the Squarred Prediction Error (SPE) and statistic Hotteling criteria for detecting sensor failure indication. The results shows that PCA method is capable to detect the occurrence of a failure at any sensor.

  15. Progressive Damage and Failure Analysis of Composite Laminates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Ashith P. K.

    Composite materials are widely used in various industries for making structural parts due to higher strength to weight ratio, better fatigue life, corrosion resistance and material property tailorability. To fully exploit the capability of composites, it is required to know the load carrying capacity of the parts made of them. Unlike metals, composites are orthotropic in nature and fails in a complex manner under various loading conditions which makes it a hard problem to analyze. Lack of reliable and efficient failure analysis tools for composites have led industries to rely more on coupon and component level testing to estimate the design space. Due to the complex failure mechanisms, composite materials require a very large number of coupon level tests to fully characterize the behavior. This makes the entire testing process very time consuming and costly. The alternative is to use virtual testing tools which can predict the complex failure mechanisms accurately. This reduces the cost only to it's associated computational expenses making significant savings. Some of the most desired features in a virtual testing tool are - (1) Accurate representation of failure mechanism: Failure progression predicted by the virtual tool must be same as those observed in experiments. A tool has to be assessed based on the mechanisms it can capture. (2) Computational efficiency: The greatest advantages of a virtual tools are the savings in time and money and hence computational efficiency is one of the most needed features. (3) Applicability to a wide range of problems: Structural parts are subjected to a variety of loading conditions including static, dynamic and fatigue conditions. A good virtual testing tool should be able to make good predictions for all these different loading conditions. The aim of this PhD thesis is to develop a computational tool which can model the progressive failure of composite laminates under different quasi-static loading conditions. The analysis

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

    1997-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

  17. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K

  18. A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

    OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

  19. A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

  20. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  1. Understanding the economic burden of heart failure in China: impact on disease management and resource utilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jun; Yin, Hongjun; Zhang, Milun; Ni, Qian; Xuan, Jianwei

    2017-05-01

    This study has two objectives: (1) to examine healthcare resource utilization in heart failure (HF) patients; and (2) to examine the treatment costs associated with HF in China. The data used in this study was from the 2014 national insurance database sponsored by the China Health Insurance Research Association (CHIRA), that covers national urban employees and residents. ICD-10 codes and keywords indicating heart failure diagnoses were used to identify patients with heart failure. Drug utilization, hospital visits, re-admission, and treatment costs in different service categories were examined. A total of 7,847 patients were included in this analysis, of which 1,157 patients had a 1-year complete follow-up period. In total, 48.16% of patients received the combination treatment of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) and beta-blockers (BB); and 22.87% of patients received the combination treatment of ACEI/ARB, beta-blockers and Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs). The annual treatment cost per patient with HF diagnosis was RMB 28,974, of which 66% was for inpatient care. The cost on HF medications accounted for 8.2% of annual cost. Treatment cost was much higher in provincial-level municipalities than that of prefecture-level and other cities. Hospitalization is a major driver of HF treatment cost. Compared to the requirements in international treatment guidelines, HF standard of care medication treatment was under-utilized among HF patients in China. The high re-admission rate among Chinese patients indicates that the management of HF needs to be improved. The percentage of GDP spent on treating HF patients was much lower than that in the developed countries.

  2. Tests and analysis on steam generator tube failure propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Hiromi

    1990-01-01

    The understanding of leak enlargement and failure propagation behavior is essential to select a design basis leak (DBL) of LMFBR steam generators. Therefore, various series of experiments, such as self-enlargement tests, target wastage tests, failure propagation tests were conducted in a wide range of leak using test facilities of SWAT at PNC/OEC. Especially, in the large leak tests, potential of overheating failure was investigated under a prototypical steam cooling condition inside target tubes. In the small leak, the difference of wastage resistivity was clarified among several tube materials such as 9-chrome steels. In regard to an analytical approach, a computer code LEAP (Leak Enlargement and Propagation) was developed on the basis of all of these experimental results. The code was used to validate the previously selected DBL of the prototype reactor, Monju, steam generator. This approach proved to be successful in spite of somewhat over-conservatism in the analysis. Moreover, LEAP clarified the effectiveness of a rapid steam dump and an enhanced leak detection system. The code improvement toward a realistic analysis is desired, however, to lessen the DBL for a future large plant and then the re-evaluation of the experimental data such as the size of secondary failure is under way. (author). 4 refs, 8 figs, 1 tab

  3. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves and other sources of loads that are uncertain and have to be modeled as stochastic variables. The types of loads are different for offshore and onshore wind turbines. Moreover, uncertainties about the fatigue strength play an important role in modeling and assessment of the reliability of the components. In this paper, a generic stochastic model for fatigue failure of cast iron components based on fatigue test data and a limit state equation for fatigue failure based on the SN-curve approach and Miner’s rule is presented. The statistical analysis of the fatigue data is performed using the Maximum Likelihood Method which also gives an estimate of the statistical uncertainties. Finally, illustrative examples are presented with reliability analyses depending on various stochastic models and partial safety factors.

  4. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  5. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  6. Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki

    2012-01-01

    Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly

  7. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  8. failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Failure analysis of a flight control system proposed for Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was studied using Markov Analysis (MA). It was perceived that understanding of the number of failure states and the probability of being in those state are of paramount importance in order to ...

  9. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  10. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coiante, D.

    1995-03-01

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  11. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  12. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  13. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  14. Failure characteristics analysis and fault diagnosis for liquid rocket engines

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    This book concentrates on the subject of health monitoring technology of Liquid Rocket Engine (LRE), including its failure analysis, fault diagnosis and fault prediction. Since no similar issue has been published, the failure pattern and mechanism analysis of the LRE from the system stage are of particular interest to the readers. Furthermore, application cases used to validate the efficacy of the fault diagnosis and prediction methods of the LRE are different from the others. The readers can learn the system stage modeling, analyzing and testing methods of the LRE system as well as corresponding fault diagnosis and prediction methods. This book will benefit researchers and students who are pursuing aerospace technology, fault detection, diagnostics and corresponding applications.

  15. Failure mode and effects analysis: too little for too much?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean Franklin, Bryony; Shebl, Nada Atef; Barber, Nick

    2012-07-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a structured prospective risk assessment method that is widely used within healthcare. FMEA involves a multidisciplinary team mapping out a high-risk process of care, identifying the failures that can occur, and then characterising each of these in terms of probability of occurrence, severity of effects and detectability, to give a risk priority number used to identify failures most in need of attention. One might assume that such a widely used tool would have an established evidence base. This paper considers whether or not this is the case, examining the evidence for the reliability and validity of its outputs, the mathematical principles behind the calculation of a risk prioirty number, and variation in how it is used in practice. We also consider the likely advantages of this approach, together with the disadvantages in terms of the healthcare professionals' time involved. We conclude that although FMEA is popular and many published studies have reported its use within healthcare, there is little evidence to support its use for the quantitative prioritisation of process failures. It lacks both reliability and validity, and is very time consuming. We would not recommend its use as a quantitative technique to prioritise, promote or study patient safety interventions. However, the stage of FMEA involving multidisciplinary mapping process seems valuable and work is now needed to identify the best way of converting this into plans for action.

  16. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Subsea Multiphase Pump Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwatoyin Shobowale Kafayat

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Finding oil and gas reserves in deep/harsh environment with challenging reservoir and field conditions, subsea multiphase pumping benefits has found its way to provide solutions to these issues. Challenges such as failure issues that are still surging the industry and with the current practice of information hiding, this issues becomes even more difficult to tackle. Although, there are some joint industry projects which are only accessible to its members, still there is a need to have a clear understanding of these equipment groups so as to know which issues to focus attention on. A failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA is a potential first aid in understanding this equipment groups. A survey questionnaire/interview was conducted with the oil and gas operating company and equipment manufacturer based on the literature review. The results indicates that these equipment’s group are similar with its onshore counterpart, but the difference is the robustness built into the equipment internal subsystems for subsea applications. The results from the manufacturer perspectives indicates that Helico-axial multiphase pump have a mean time to failure of more than 10 years, twin-screw and electrical submersible pumps are still struggling with a mean time to failure of less than 5 years.

  17. Seismic analysis for translational failure of landfills with retaining walls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shi-Jin; Gao, Li-Ya

    2010-11-01

    In the seismic impact zone, seismic force can be a major triggering mechanism for translational failures of landfills. The scope of this paper is to develop a three-part wedge method for seismic analysis of translational failures of landfills with retaining walls. The approximate solution of the factor of safety can be calculated. Unlike previous conventional limit equilibrium methods, the new method is capable of revealing the effects of both the solid waste shear strength and the retaining wall on the translational failures of landfills during earthquake. Parameter studies of the developed method show that the factor of safety decreases with the increase of the seismic coefficient, while it increases quickly with the increase of the minimum friction angle beneath waste mass for various horizontal seismic coefficients. Increasing the minimum friction angle beneath the waste mass appears to be more effective than any other parameters for increasing the factor of safety under the considered condition. Thus, selecting liner materials with higher friction angle will considerably reduce the potential for translational failures of landfills during earthquake. The factor of safety gradually increases with the increase of the height of retaining wall for various horizontal seismic coefficients. A higher retaining wall is beneficial to the seismic stability of the landfill. Simply ignoring the retaining wall will lead to serious underestimation of the factor of safety. Besides, the approximate solution of the yield acceleration coefficient of the landfill is also presented based on the calculated method. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Failure analysis of boiler tubes in lakhra coal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, A.; Baluch, M.M.; Ali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Present work deals with the failure analysis of a boiler tube in Lakhra fluidized bed combustion power station. Initially, visual inspection technique was adopted to analyse the fractured surface. Detailed microstructural investigations of the busted boiler tube were carried out using light optical microscope and scanning electron microscope. The hardness tests were also performed. A 50 percent decrease in hardness of intact portion of the tube material and from area adjacent to failure was measured, which was found to be in good agreement with the wall thicknesses measured of the busted boiler tube i.e. 4 mm and 2 mm from unaffected portion and ruptured area respectively. It was concluded that the major cause of failure of boiler tube is erosion of material which occurs due the coal particles strike at the surface of the tube material. Since the temperature of boiler is not maintained uniformly. The variations in boiler temperature can also affect the material and could be another reason for the failure of the tube. (author)

  19. PV System Component Fault and Failure Compilation and Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Lavrova, Olga; Gooding, Renee Lynne

    2018-02-01

    This report describes data collection and analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) equipment events, which consist of faults and fa ilures that occur during the normal operation of a distributed PV system or PV power plant. We present summary statistics from locations w here maintenance data is being collected at various intervals, as well as reliability statistics gathered from that da ta, consisting of fault/failure distributions and repair distributions for a wide range of PV equipment types.

  20. Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Bruce Duncan [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, IL (United States)

    2014-08-27

    This report is the third annual assessment of the U.S. offshore wind market. It includes the following major sections: Section 1: key data on developments in the offshore wind technology sector and the global development of offshore wind projects, with a particular focus on progress in the United States; Section 2: analysis of policy developments at the federal and state levels that have been effective in advancing offshore wind deployment in the United States; Section 3: analysis of actual and projected economic impact, including regional development and job creation; Section 4: analysis of developments in relevant sectors of the economy with the potential to affect offshore wind deployment in the United States

  1. Economic analysis of hydride fueled BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganda, F.; Shuffler, C.; Greenspan, E.; Todreas, N.

    2009-01-01

    The economic implications of designing BWR cores with hydride fuels instead of conventional oxide fuels are analyzed. The economic analysis methodology adopted is based on the lifetime levelized cost of electricity (COE). Bracketing values (1970 and 3010 $/kWe) are used for the overnight construction costs and for the power scaling factors (0.4 and 0.8) that correlate between a change in the capital cost to a change in the power level. It is concluded that a newly constructed BWR reactor could substantially benefit from the use of 10 x 10 hydride fuel bundles instead of 10 x 10 oxide fuel bundles design presently in use. The cost saving would depend on the core pressure drop constraint that can be implemented in newly constructed BWRs - it is between 2% and 3% for a core pressure drop constraint as of the reference BWR, between 9% and 15% for a 50% higher core pressure drop, and between 12% and 21% higher for close to 100% core pressure. The attainable cost reduction was found insensitive to the specific construction cost but strongly dependent on the power scaling factor. The cost advantage of hydride fuelled cores as compared to that of the oxide reference core depends only weakly on the uranium and SWU prices, on the 'per volume base' fabrication cost of hydride fuels, and on the discount rate used. To be economically competitive, the uranium enrichment required for the hydride fuelled core needs to be around 10%.

  2. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

    1991-01-01

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  3. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  4. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, A.C.S.; Bajay, S.V.

    1992-01-01

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  5. Reliability analysis for the creep rupture mode of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaidyanathan, S.

    1975-01-01

    An analytical study has been carried out to relate the factors of safety employed in the design of a component to the probability of failure in the thermal creep rupture mode. The analysis considers the statistical variations in the operating temperature, stress and rupture time, and applies the life fraction damage criterion as the indicator of failure. Typical results for solution annealed type 304-stainless steel material for the temperature and stress variations expected in an LMFBR environment have been obtained. The analytical problem was solved by considering the joint distribution of the independent variables and deriving the distribution for the function associated with the probability of failure by integrating over proper regions as dictated by the deterministic design rule. This leads to a triple integral for the final probability of failure where the coefficients of variation associated with the temperature, stress and rupture time distributions can be specified by the user. The derivation is general, and can be used for time varying stress histories and the case of irradiated material where the rupture time varies with accumulated fluence. Example calculations applied to solution annealed type 304 stainless steel material have been carried out for an assumed coefficient of variation of 2% for temperature and 6% for stress. The results show that the probability of failure associated with dependent stress intensity limits specified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Section III Code Case 1592 is less than 5x10 -8 . Rupture under thermal creep conditions is a highly complicated phenomenon. It is believed that the present study will help in quantizing the reliability to be expected with deterministic design factors of safety

  6. Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).

  7. Failure mode and effects analysis outputs: are they valid?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shebl Nada

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA is a prospective risk assessment tool that has been widely used within the aerospace and automotive industries and has been utilised within healthcare since the early 1990s. The aim of this study was to explore the validity of FMEA outputs within a hospital setting in the United Kingdom. Methods Two multidisciplinary teams each conducted an FMEA for the use of vancomycin and gentamicin. Four different validity tests were conducted: · Face validity: by comparing the FMEA participants’ mapped processes with observational work. · Content validity: by presenting the FMEA findings to other healthcare professionals. · Criterion validity: by comparing the FMEA findings with data reported on the trust’s incident report database. · Construct validity: by exploring the relevant mathematical theories involved in calculating the FMEA risk priority number. Results Face validity was positive as the researcher documented the same processes of care as mapped by the FMEA participants. However, other healthcare professionals identified potential failures missed by the FMEA teams. Furthermore, the FMEA groups failed to include failures related to omitted doses; yet these were the failures most commonly reported in the trust’s incident database. Calculating the RPN by multiplying severity, probability and detectability scores was deemed invalid because it is based on calculations that breach the mathematical properties of the scales used. Conclusion There are significant methodological challenges in validating FMEA. It is a useful tool to aid multidisciplinary groups in mapping and understanding a process of care; however, the results of our study cast doubt on its validity. FMEA teams are likely to need different sources of information, besides their personal experience and knowledge, to identify potential failures. As for FMEA’s methodology for scoring failures, there were discrepancies

  8. Failure of Emperion modular femoral stem with implant analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M. Stronach, MD, MS

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modularity in total hip arthroplasty provides multiple benefits to the surgeon in restoring the appropriate alignment and position to a previously damaged hip joint. The vast majority of modern implants incorporate modularity into their design with some implants having multiple modular interfaces. There is the potential for failure at modular junctions because of fretting and crevice corrosion in combination with mechanical loading. This case report details the failure of an Emperion (Smith and Nephew, Memphis, TN femoral stem in a 67-year-old male patient 6 years after total hip replacement. Analysis of the implant revealed mechanically assisted crevice corrosion that likely accelerated fatigue crack initiation in the hip stem. The benefits of modularity come with the potential drawback of a combination of fretting and crevice corrosion at the modular junction, which may accelerate fatigue, crack initiation and ultimately reduce the hip longevity.

  9. Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

    1996-01-01

    This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

  10. Failure mode and effects analysis on typical reactor trip system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisawy, E.A.

    2010-01-01

    An updated failure mode and effects analysis, FMEA , has been performed on a typical reactor trip system. This upgrade helps to avoid system damage and ,as a result, extends the system service life. It also provides for simplified maintenance and surveillance testing. The operating conditions under which the system is to carry out its function and the operational profile expected for the system have been determined. The results of the FMEA have been given in terms of operating states of the subsystem.The results are given in form of table which is set up such that for a given failure one can read across it and determine which items remain operating in the system. From this data one can identify the number of components operating in the system for monitors pressure exceeds the setpoint pressure.

  11. Failure analysis of electrolyte-supported solid oxide fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischhauer, Felix; Tiefenauer, Andreas; Graule, Thomas; Danzer, Robert; Mai, Andreas; Kuebler, Jakob

    2014-07-01

    For solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) one key aspect is the structural integrity of the cell and hence its thermo mechanical long term behaviour. The present study investigates the failure mechanisms and the actual causes for fracture of electrolyte supported SOFCs which were run using the current μ-CHP system of Hexis AG, Winterthur - Switzerland under lab conditions or at customer sites for up to 40,000 h. In a first step several operated stacks were demounted for post-mortem inspection, followed by a fractographic evaluation of the failed cells. The respective findings are then set into a larger picture including an analysis of the present stresses acting on the cell like thermal and residual stresses and the measurements regarding the temperature dependent electrolyte strength. For all investigated stacks, the mechanical failure of individual cells can be attributed to locally acting bending loads, which rise due to an inhomogeneous and uneven contact between the metallic interconnect and the cell.

  12. Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Unrestricted Requirement Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. The methods developed herein, which are based on nonlinear constrained optimization, are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is arbitrary and whose explicit form may even be unknown. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the assumed uncertainty model (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

  13. Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Polynomial Requirement Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. A Bernstein expansion approach is used to size hyper-rectangular subsets while a sum of squares programming approach is used to size quasi-ellipsoidal subsets. These methods are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is a known polynomial. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the uncertainty model assumed (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

  14. Dam failure analysis/calibration using NWS models on dam failure in Alton, New Hampshire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capone, E.J.

    1998-01-01

    The State of New Hampshire Water Resources Board, the United States Geological Service, and private concerns have compiled data on the cause of a catastrophic failure of the Bergeron Dam in Alton, New Hampshire in March of 1996. Data collected related to the cause of the breach, the breach parameters, the soil characteristics of the failed section, and the limits of downstream flooding. Dam break modeling software was used to calibrate and verify the simulated flood-wave caused by the Bergeron Dam breach. Several scenarios were modeled, using different degrees of detail concerning the topography/channel-geometry of the affected areas. A sensitivity analysis of the important output parameters was completed. The relative importance of model parameters on the results was assessed against the background of observed historical events

  15. Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2013-06-01

    Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Economic evaluation of the artificial liver support system MARS in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hessel Franz P

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF is a life threatening acute decompensation of a pre-existing chronic liver disease. The artificial liver support system MARS is a new emerging therapeutic option possible to be implemented in routine care of these patients. The medical efficacy of MARS has been demonstrated in first clinical studies, but economic aspects have so far not been investigated. Objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of MARS. Methods In a clinical cohort trial with a prospective follow-up of 3 years 33 ACLF-patients treated with MARS were compared to 46 controls. Survival, health-related quality of life as well as direct medical costs for in- and outpatient treatment from a health care system perspective were determined. Based on the differences in outcome and indirect costs the cost-effectiveness of MARS expressed as incremental costs per life year gained and incremental costs per QALY gained was estimated. Results The average initial intervention costs for MARS were 14600 EUR per patient treated. Direct medical costs over 3 years follow up were overall 40000 EUR per patient treated with MARS respectively 12700 EUR in controls. The 3 year survival rate after MARS was 52% compared to 17% in controls. Kaplan-Meier analysis of cumulated survival probability showed a highly significant difference in favour of MARS. Incremental costs per life-year gained were 31400 EUR; incremental costs per QALY gained were 47200 EUR. Conclusion The results after 3 years follow-up of the first economic evaluation study of MARS based on empirical patient data are presented. Although high initial treatment costs for MARS occur the significantly better survival seen in this study led to reasonable costs per live year gained. Further randomized controlled trials investigating the medical efficacy and the cost-effectiveness are recommended.

  17. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  18. The study of Influencing Maintenance Factors on Failures of Two gypsum Kilns by Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Alimohammadi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Developing technology and using equipment in Iranian industries caused that maintenance system would be more important to use. Using proper management techniques not only increase the performance of production system but also reduce the failures and costs. The aim of this study was to determine the quality of maintenance system and the effects of its components on failures of kilns in two gypsum production companies using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA. Furthermore the costs of failures were studied. After the study of gypsum production steps in the factories, FMEA was conducted by the determination of analysis insight, information gathering, making list of kilns’ component and filling up the FMEA’s tables. The effects of failures on production, how to fail, failure rate, failure severity, and control measures were studied. The evaluation of maintenance system was studied by a check list including questions related to system components. The costs of failures were determined by refer in accounting notebooks and interview with the head of accounting department. It was found the total qualities of maintenance system in NO.1 was more than NO.2 but because of lower quality of NO.1’s kiln design, number of failures and their costs were more. In addition it was determined that repair costs in NO.2’s kiln were about one third of NO.1’s. The low severity failures caused the most costs in comparison to the moderate and low ones. The technical characteristics of kilns were appeared to be the most important factors in reducing of failures and costs.

  19. failure analysis of a uav flight control system using markov analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    2016-01-01

    Jan 1, 2016 ... Tree Analysis (FTA), Dependence Diagram Analysis. (DDA) and Markov Analysis (MA) are the most widely-used methods of probabilistic safety and reliability analysis for airborne system [1]. Fault trees analysis is a backward failure searching ..... [4] Christopher Dabrowski and Fern Hunt Markov Chain.

  20. Improving failure analysis efficiency by combining FTA and FMEA in a recursive manner

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, J.F.W.; Basten, R.J.I.; Tinga, Tiedo

    2018-01-01

    When designing a maintenance programme for a capital good, especially a new one, it is of key importance to accurately understand its failure behaviour. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are two commonly used methods for failure analysis. FMEA is a bottom-up

  1. Improving failure analysis efficiency by combining FTA and FMEA in a recursive manner

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, J.F.W.; Basten, R.J.I.; Tinga, T.

    When designing a maintenance programme for a capital good, especially a new one, it is of key importance to accurately understand its failure behaviour. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are two commonly used methods for failure analysis. FMEA is a bottom-up

  2. The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, R.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)

  3. Failure and Reliability Analysis for the Master Pump Shutdown System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BEVINS, R.R.

    2000-01-01

    The Master Pump Shutdown System (MPSS) will be installed in the 200 Areas of the Hanford Site to monitor and control the transfer of liquid waste between tank farms and between the 200 West and 200 East areas through the Cross-Site Transfer Line. The Safety Function provided by the MPSS is to shutdown any waste transfer process within or between tank farms if a waste leak should occur along the selected transfer route. The MPSS, which provides this Safety Class Function, is composed of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), interconnecting wires, relays, Human to Machine Interfaces (HMI), and software. These components are defined as providing a Safety Class Function and will be designated in this report as MPSS/PLC. Input signals to the MPSS/PLC are provided by leak detection systems from each of the tank farm leak detector locations along the waste transfer route. The combination of the MPSS/PLC, leak detection system, and transfer pump controller system will be referred to as MPSS/SYS. The components addressed in this analysis are associated with the MPSS/SYS. The purpose of this failure and reliability analysis is to address the following design issues of the Project Development Specification (PDS) for the MPSS/SYS (HNF 2000a): (1) Single Component Failure Criterion, (2) System Status Upon Loss of Electrical Power, (3) Physical Separation of Safety Class cables, (4) Physical Isolation of Safety Class Wiring from General Service Wiring, and (5) Meeting the MPSS/PLC Option 1b (RPP 1999) Reliability estimate. The failure and reliability analysis examined the system on a component level basis and identified any hardware or software elements that could fail and/or prevent the system from performing its intended safety function

  4. Application of micropolar plasticity to post failure analysis in geomechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzari, Majid T.

    2004-08-01

    A micropolar elastoplastic model for soils is formulated and a series of finite element analyses are employed to demonstrate the use of a micropolar continuum in overcoming the numerical difficulties encountered in application of finite element method in standard Cauchy-Boltzmann continuum. Three examples of failure analysis involving a deep excavation, shallow foundation, and a retaining wall are presented. In all these cases, it is observed that the length scale introduced in the polar continuum regularizes the incremental boundary value problem and allows the numerical simulation to be continued until a clear collapse mechanism is achieved. The issue of grain size effect is also discussed. Copyright

  5. Augmenting health care failure modes and effects analysis with simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staub-Nielsen, Ditte Emilie; Dieckmann, Peter; Mohr, Marlene

    2014-01-01

    This study explores whether simulation plays a role in health care failure mode and effects analysis (HFMEA); it does this by evaluating whether additional data are found when a traditional HFMEA is augmented with simulation. Two multidisciplinary teams identified vulnerabilities in a process...... by brainstorming, followed by simulation. Two means of adding simulation were investigated as follows: just simulating the process and interrupting the simulation between substeps of the process. By adding simulation to a traditional HFMEA, both multidisciplinary teams identified additional data that were relevant...

  6. Local buckling failure analysis of high-strength pipelines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Li; Jian Shuai; Zhong-Li Jin; Ya-Tong Zhao; Kui Xu

    2017-01-01

    Pipelines in geological disaster regions typically suffer the risk of local buckling failure because of slender structure and complex load.This paper is meant to reveal the local buckling behavior of buried pipelines with a large diameter and high strength,which are under different conditions,including pure bending and bending combined with internal pressure.Finite element analysis was built according to previous data to study local buckling behavior of pressurized and unpressurized pipes under bending conditions and their differences in local buckling failure modes.In parametric analysis,a series of parameters,including pipe geometrical dimension,pipe material properties and internal pressure,were selected to study their influences on the critical bending moment,critical compressive stress and critical compressive strain of pipes.Especially the hardening exponent of pipe material was introduced to the parameter analysis by using the Ramberg-Osgood constitutive model.Results showed that geometrical dimensions,material and internal pressure can exert similar effects on the critical bending moment and critical compressive stress,which have different,even reverse effects on the critical compressive strain.Based on these analyses,more accurate design models of critical bending moment and critical compressive stress have been proposed for high-strength pipelines under bending conditions,which provide theoretical methods for highstrength pipeline engineering.

  7. Failure analysis of axle shaft of a fork lift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souvik Das

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available An axle shaft of fork lift failed at operation within 296 h of service. The shaft transmits torque from discrepancy to wheel through planetary gear arrangement. A section of fractured axle shaft made of induction-hardened steel was analyzed to determine the root cause of the failure. Optical microscopies as well as field emission gun scanning electron microscopy (FEG-SEM along with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS were carried out to characterize the microstructure. Hardness profile throughout the cross-section was evaluated by micro-hardness measurements. Chemical analysis indicated that the shaft was made of 42CrMo4 steel grade as per specification. Microstructural analysis and micro-hardness profile revealed that the shaft was improperly heat treated resulting in a brittle case, where crack was found to initiate from the case in a brittle mode in contrast to ductile mode within the core. This behaviour was related to differences in microstructure, which was observed to be martensitic within the case with a micro-hardness equivalent to 735 HV, and a mixture of non-homogeneous structure of pearlite and ferrite within the core with a hardness of 210 HV. The analysis suggests that the fracture initiated from the martensitic case as brittle mode due to improper heat treatment process (high hardness. Moreover the inclusions along the hot working direction i.e. in the longitudinal axis made the component more susceptible to failure.

  8. Technical/economical analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: (1) To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels; (2) To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on technoeconomic basis to establish future development needs, and (3) To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned. (orig.)

  9. Low Carbon-Oriented Optimal Reliability Design with Interval Product Failure Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yixiong Feng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of large amounts of carbon emissions causes wide concern across the world, and it has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. The intensive research into technologies and methodologies for green product design has significant theoretical meaning and practical value in reducing the emissions of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, a low carbon-oriented product reliability optimal design model is proposed in this paper: (1 The related expert evaluation information was prepared in interval numbers; (2 An improved product failure analysis considering the uncertain carbon emissions of the subsystem was performed to obtain the subsystem weight taking the carbon emissions into consideration. The interval grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the subsystem weight taking the uncertain correlations inside the product into consideration. Using the above two kinds of subsystem weights and different caution indicators of the decision maker, a series of product reliability design schemes is available; (3 The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs were employed to select the optimal reliability and optimal design scheme based on three attributes, namely, low carbon, correlation and functions, and economic cost. The case study of a vertical CNC lathe proves the superiority and rationality of the proposed method.

  10. Analysis of Service Recovery Failure: From Minority Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Yasemin Öcal Atınç

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the service failures towards diverse customer groups for the purpose to bring insightful proposals to the managers to recover from these failures. Previous literature provided insights regarding the perception of service failures by minorities and the challenge of recovery due to racial implications driven from the failure, however lacked to propose suggestions for the managers so that they can take either corrective steps toward service failure recovery or prevent service fail...

  11. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW

  12. Factor Economic Analysis at Forestry Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the importance of economic analysis according to the results of research of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. The calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the cost of harvesting timber products by cost items has been performed. The results of the calculation of the influence of factors on the change of costs on 1 UAH are determined using the full cost of sold products. The variable and fixed costs and their distribution are allocated that influences the calculation of the impact of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. The paper singles out the general results of calculating the influence of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. According to the results of the analysis, the list of reserves for reducing the cost of production at forest enterprises was proposed. The main sources of reserves for reducing the prime cost of forest products at forest enterprises are investigated based on the conducted factor analysis.

  13. Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C

    2013-04-01

    This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney

    1981-01-01

    To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)

  15. Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

  16. Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.

  17. The failure trace archive : enabling comparative analysis of failures in diverse distributed systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kondo, D.; Javadi, B.; Iosup, A.; Epema, D.H.J.

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing functionality and complexity of distributed systems, resource failures are inevitable. While numerous models and algorithms for dealing with failures exist, the lack of public trace data sets and tools has prevented meaningful comparisons. To facilitate the design, validation,

  18. Economic analysis of basiliximab in renal transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keown, P A; Balshaw, R; Krueger, H; Baladi, J F

    2001-06-15

    groups. The principal costs associated with repeat admission to the transplant ward and the general ward were marginally higher for placebo ($7,395 vs. $6,300 and $5,986 vs. $4,625). Treatment of acute rejection and maintenance immunosuppressive drug use were associated with only limited savings as a result of basiliximab (savings <$200 each). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameters affecting the savings as a result of using basiliximab were a reduction in the duration of initial and repeat hospitalization followed by the reduced risks of acute rejection and graft loss. Before accounting for the cost of the therapy itself, basiliximab produces an estimated economic saving of $4,554 during the first year after transplant, of which $3,344 is attributable to the reduced costs of graft dysfunction, including graft loss and dialysis ($1,722) and follow-up hospitalizations ($1,622). When marketed, basiliximab is expected to cost approximately $3,000 per course (two doses of 20 mg), resulting in a net first-year saving of $1,554. Under these circumstances, basiliximab can be considered a dominant therapy in renal transplantation.

  19. On the macro-economic impacts of climate change under informational failures

    OpenAIRE

    CAO, Ruixuan; Gohin, Alexandre

    2012-01-01

    Although the sources, extent and physical impacts of the future climate change are highly uncertain, available dynamic economic assessments implicitly assume that economic agents perfectly know them. Perfect foresight, rational expectations or active learning are standard assumptions underlying simulated results. To the contrary, this paper builds on the assumption that economic agents may suffer for a while from limited knowledge about the average and variability of physical impa...

  20. Failure analysis and success analysis: roles in plant aging assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, A.B. Jr.

    1985-06-01

    Component aging investigations are an important element in NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) strategy. Potential sources of components include plants in decommissioning and commercial plant, both for in situ tests and for examination of equipment removed from service. Nuclear utilities currently have voluntary programs addressing aspects of equipment reliability, such as root cause analysis for safety-related equipment that malfunctions, and trending analysis to follow the course of both successful and abnormal equipment performance. Properly coordinated, the NPAR and utility programs offer an important approach to establish the data base necessary for life extension of nuclear electrical generating plants

  1. Corrosion failure analysis of hearing aid battery-spring contacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudla, Visweswara Chakravarthy; Ambat, Rajan

    2017-01-01

    the susceptibility of these systems to galvanic corrosion. In this study, traditional behind the ear (BTE) hearing aid systems, which failed during service were analysed. Failure analysis was performed on the dome type battery-spring contact systems. The morphology of the contact areas was observed using scanning......Reliability of low power electrical contacts such as those in hearing aid battery-spring systems is a very critical aspect for the overall performance of the device. These systems are exposed to certain harsh environments like high humidity and elevated temperatures, and often in combination...... electron microscopy, and the compositional analysis of the corrosion products and contaminants was performed using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Wear track morphology was observed on the contact points, and the top coating on the dome was worn out exposing the substrate spring material...

  2. Failure Analysis of Nonvolatile Residue (NVR) Analyzer Model SP-1000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Joseph C.

    2011-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) subcontractor Wiltech contacted the NASA Electrical Lab (NE-L) and requested a failure analysis of a Solvent Purity Meter; model SP-IOOO produced by the VerTis Instrument Company. The meter, used to measure the contaminate in a solvent to determine the relative contamination on spacecraft flight hardware and ground servicing equipment, had been inoperable and in storage for an unknown amount of time. NE-L was asked to troubleshoot the unit and make a determination on what may be required to make the unit operational. Through the use of general troubleshooting processes and the review of a unit in service at the time of analysis, the unit was found to be repairable but would need the replacement of multiple components.

  3. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani; John Dalsgaard Sørensen

    2015-01-01

    Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves an...

  4. Complexity and the culture of economics: a sociological and inter-disciplinary analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Van den Berg

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper offers a sociological explanation for why the field of economics has so severely restricted the scope of its analysis to the point where it failed to foresee the financial crises, economic recessions, and other large shifts in economic activity that have characterized the global economy in recent decades. This paper’s analysis of the culture of economics draws heavily on the work of Pierre Bourdieu, the French sociologist who developed a useful framework with which to analyze the culture of an intellectual field like economics. Specifically, the paper describes how the neo-liberal doxa supports the restrictive neoclassical (marginalist modeling approach that is a central element of the habitus of mainstream economics. Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence shows how the orthodox economics culture perpetuates itself even in the face of the complete failure of the culture’s favored neoclassical and rational expectations models to anticipate recent macroeconomic crises. The paper concludes with some thoughts on how this understanding of the culture of economics can enable economists to free themselves from the oppressive culture of mainstream economics.

  5. Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

    2017-03-01

    Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

  6. Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Matheson

    2004-01-01

    Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.

  7. Standard guide for corrosion-related failure analysis

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2000-01-01

    1.1 This guide covers key issues to be considered when examining metallic failures when corrosion is suspected as either a major or minor causative factor. 1.2 Corrosion-related failures could include one or more of the following: change in surface appearance (for example, tarnish, rust, color change), pin hole leak, catastrophic structural failure (for example, collapse, explosive rupture, implosive rupture, cracking), weld failure, loss of electrical continuity, and loss of functionality (for example, seizure, galling, spalling, swelling). 1.3 Issues covered include overall failure site conditions, operating conditions at the time of failure, history of equipment and its operation, corrosion product sampling, environmental sampling, metallurgical and electrochemical factors, morphology (mode) or failure, and by considering the preceding, deducing the cause(s) of corrosion failure. This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibili...

  8. Early phase success and long run failure of economic sanctions. With an application to Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.F. Dizaji (Sajjad Faraji); P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractWe develop a model of the dynamics of economic sanctions in conjunction with the response of the sanction target. We apply this model to the case of the EU and US boycott of Iranian oil. Our VAR model finds significant impacts of sanctions both on key economic variables and on the

  9. Machinery failure analysis and troubleshooting practical machinery management for process plants

    CERN Document Server

    Bloch, Heinz P

    2012-01-01

    Solve the machinery failure problems costing you time and money with this classic, comprehensive guide to analysis and troubleshooting  Provides detailed, complete and accurate information on anticipating risk of component failure and avoiding equipment downtime Includes numerous photographs of failed parts to ensure you are familiar with the visual evidence you need to recognize Covers proven approaches to failure definition and offers failure identification and analysis methods that can be applied to virtually all problem situations Demonstr

  10. Failure analysis of collector circuits associated with wind farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clifton Ashley P.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind farm collector circuits generally comprise several wind turbine generators (WTG’s. WTG’s are connected in parallel to a substation. This connection acts as the point-of-connection to the national electricity grid. The electrical load in these circuits is close to component (power cables and accessories ratings. The objective of this paper is to identify cable joint failure paths; and, develop an understanding of specific contributing factors. All findings presented were established from literature review involving data analysis and discussion with industry experts working across the wind industry. Application of forces, inadequate workmanship, incorrect thermal resistance or other contributing factors, all contribute to high conductor operating temperatures. High conductor operating temperatures highlight issues including insufficient environmental heat transfer due to the use of inadequate cable trenching materials. This in turn results in the imbalanced application of force, experienced at the cable joint, as a direct result of frequent thermal expansion and contraction. For most cable joint failures, the root cause is insulation breakdown due to sustained deterioration of the cross-linked polyethylene insulation. This is a direct result from excessive operating temperatures.

  11. Survival analysis of heart failure patients: A case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanvir Ahmad

    Full Text Available This study was focused on survival analysis of heart failure patients who were admitted to Institute of Cardiology and Allied hospital Faisalabad-Pakistan during April-December (2015. All the patients were aged 40 years or above, having left ventricular systolic dysfunction, belonging to NYHA class III and IV. Cox regression was used to model mortality considering age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine, serum sodium, anemia, platelets, creatinine phosphokinase, blood pressure, gender, diabetes and smoking status as potentially contributing for mortality. Kaplan Meier plot was used to study the general pattern of survival which showed high intensity of mortality in the initial days and then a gradual increase up to the end of study. Martingale residuals were used to assess functional form of variables. Results were validated computing calibration slope and discrimination ability of model via bootstrapping. For graphical prediction of survival probability, a nomogram was constructed. Age, renal dysfunction, blood pressure, ejection fraction and anemia were found as significant risk factors for mortality among heart failure patients.

  12. Survival analysis of heart failure patients: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Tanvir; Munir, Assia; Bhatti, Sajjad Haider; Aftab, Muhammad; Raza, Muhammad Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study was focused on survival analysis of heart failure patients who were admitted to Institute of Cardiology and Allied hospital Faisalabad-Pakistan during April-December (2015). All the patients were aged 40 years or above, having left ventricular systolic dysfunction, belonging to NYHA class III and IV. Cox regression was used to model mortality considering age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine, serum sodium, anemia, platelets, creatinine phosphokinase, blood pressure, gender, diabetes and smoking status as potentially contributing for mortality. Kaplan Meier plot was used to study the general pattern of survival which showed high intensity of mortality in the initial days and then a gradual increase up to the end of study. Martingale residuals were used to assess functional form of variables. Results were validated computing calibration slope and discrimination ability of model via bootstrapping. For graphical prediction of survival probability, a nomogram was constructed. Age, renal dysfunction, blood pressure, ejection fraction and anemia were found as significant risk factors for mortality among heart failure patients.

  13. Failure analysis of re-bars during bending operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souvik Das

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Thermo-mechanical treated (TMT rebar is suitable material for reinforcing concrete structures on accounts of similarity in thermal expansion, ability to bond well with concrete and, above all the ability to shoulder most of the tensile stress acting on the structure and also steel manufacturing industry has successfully developed a corrosion-resistant variety of rebar for the construction industry. As the TMT is the finish product thus proper control of rolling parameters and water box is needed to achieve adequate property. Water box plays an important role for achieving the final structure and property of the rebars. Water box is responsible for outer rim formation and which helps to achieve the yield strength of the material. The present paper highlights failure investigation of a failed rebar during bending operations. From fractography and microstructural analysis it is confirmed that the rebar sample failed in brittle manner due to through harden martensitic structure and which indicates that there is some anomaly in water box resulting in these premature failures.

  14. Ayame/PAM-D apogee kick motor nozzle failure analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    The failure of two communication satellites during firing sequence were examined. The correlation/comparison of the circumstances of the Ayame incidents and the failure of the STAR 48 (DM-2) motor are reviewed. The massive nozzle failure of the AKM to determine the impact on spacecraft performance is examined. It is recommended that a closer watch is kept on systems techniques,

  15. Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

    2010-01-01

    The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

  16. Goal-oriented failure analysis - a systems analysis approach to hazard identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, A.B.; Davies, J.; Foster, J.; Wells, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    Goal-Oriented Failure Analysis, GOFA, is a methodology which is being developed to identify and analyse the potential failure modes of a hazardous plant or process. The technique will adopt a structured top-down approach, with a particular failure goal being systematically analysed. A systems analysis approach is used, with the analysis being organised around a systems diagram of the plant or process under study. GOFA will also use checklists to supplement the analysis -these checklists will be prepared in advance of a group session and will help to guide the analysis and avoid unnecessary time being spent on identifying obvious failure modes or failing to identify certain hazards or failures. GOFA is being developed with the aim of providing a hazard identification methodology which is more efficient and stimulating than the conventional approach to HAZOP. The top-down approach should ensure that the analysis is more focused and the use of a systems diagram will help to pull the analysis together at an early stage whilst also helping to structure the sessions in a more stimulating way than the conventional techniques. GOFA will be, essentially, an extension of the HAZOP methodology. GOFA is currently being computerised using a knowledge-based systems approach for implementation. The Goldworks II expert systems development tool is being used. (author)

  17. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  19. Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

    2014-01-01

    Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

  20. A multidisciplinary-economic framework of analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piet Keizer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination, human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities, to satisfy them closely, interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical economists use this world as a theoretical foundation for their empirical research. Heterodox economics rejects this strategy of isolating one motivation, a strategy that ignores the psychic and the social problem. However, the heterodox idea of human motivation, being variable and endogenous, is badly analyzed. This leads the author to construct a psychic and a social world that is completely comparable with the agent-structure model of the economic world. The three isolated worlds are integrated by analyzing the interactions between the three worlds. In the integrated world, the economic structure, the psychic structure and the social structure are one another’s foundations. This human world gives familiar economic concepts such as utility, efficiency, rationality, price, value, cost and benefit, a different meaning. Similarly, psychic concepts such as Self, willpower and personality and social concepts such as status, power, culture and morality, are given different meanings. To make the model more realistic, it should be made dynamic and historical and be placed in the context of the world as an open system.

  1. Air Force Pilot Retention: An Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Force impacts retention. Within the field of labor economics , an alternative labor market theory has developed which contrasts with typical competitive...this section. 60 NOTES ON CHAPTER III 1 Sherwin Rosen. "The Theory of Equalizing Differences," _Handboof•f Labor Economics , Volume 1, (New York

  2. Failures of the national policy for sustainable development of Bulgaria – economic dimensions

    OpenAIRE

    Nozharov, Shteryo; Koralova, Petya

    2017-01-01

    Bulgaria is a member of the EU since 2007. The country has issues with its economic policy, which issues could have negative impact over the EU’s policies as a whole. When the economic policy of a Member State is blemished by a systematic strategic misconceptions, it is necessary this to be analysed in depth. The debate, about the future of the EU after Brexit and the concept about multi-speed Europe is consequence of the efficiency of the economic and political systems in each individual Mem...

  3. An Economic Evaluation of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Heart Failure Patients in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pol, Simon; Degener, Fabian; Postma, Maarten J.; Vemer, Pepijn

    Background: In September 2014, the PARADIGM-HF trial showed the heart failure drug combination sacubitril/valsartan to be superior to enalapril for patients with a reduced ejection fraction. Objectives: To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril

  4. How Analysis Informs Regulation:Success and Failure of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    How Analysis Informs Regulation:Success and Failure of Evolving Approaches to Polyfluoroalkyl Acid Contamination The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EPA strategic plan. More specifically, our division conducts research to characterize the movement of pollutants from the source to contact with humans. Our multidisciplinary research program produces Methods, Measurements, and Models to identify relationships between and characterize processes that link source emissions, environmental concentrations, human exposures, and target-tissue dose. The impact of these tools is improved regulatory programs and policies for EPA.

  5. Failure analysis of the fractured wires in sternal perichronal loops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Jesús; Voces, Roberto; Peña, Carmen

    2011-10-01

    We report failure analysis of sternal wires in two cases in which a perichronal fixation technique was used to close the sternotomy. Various characteristics of the retrieved wires were compared to those of unused wires of the same grade and same manufacturer and with surgical wire specifications. In both cases, wire fracture was un-branched and transgranular and proceeded by a high cycle fatigue process, apparently in the absence of corrosion. However, stress anlysis indicates that the effective stress produced during strong coughing is lower than the yield strength. Our findings suggest that in order to reduce the risk for sternal dehiscence, the diameter of the wire used should be increased. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1995-04-01

    The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

  7. Defining Business decline, failure and turnaround: A content analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pretorius

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In the past, researchers have often defined failure to suit their data. This has led to a lack of comparability in research outputs. The overriding objective of this paper is to propose a universal definition for the failure phenomenon. Clear definitions are a prerequisite for exploring major constructs, their relationship to failure and the context and processes involved. The study reports on the core definitions of the failure phenomenon and identifies core criteria for distinguishing between them. It places decline, failure and turnaround in perspective and highlights level of distress and turnaround as key moderating elements. It distinguishes the failure phenomenon from controversial synonyms such as closure, accidental bankruptcy and closure for alternative motives. Key words and phrases: business decline, failure, turnaround, level of distress

  8. Failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree analysis of surface image guided cranial radiosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manger, Ryan P; Paxton, Adam B; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya

    2015-05-01

    Surface image guided, Linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS) is a modern approach for delivering radiosurgery that utilizes optical stereoscopic imaging to monitor the surface of the patient during treatment in lieu of using a head frame for patient immobilization. Considering the novelty of the SIG-RS approach and the severity of errors associated with delivery of large doses per fraction, a risk assessment should be conducted to identify potential hazards, determine their causes, and formulate mitigation strategies. The purpose of this work is to investigate SIG-RS using the combined application of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), report on the effort required to complete the analysis, and evaluate the use of FTA in conjunction with FMEA. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to conduct the FMEA on the SIG-RS process. A process map detailing the steps of the SIG-RS was created to guide the FMEA. Failure modes were determined for each step in the SIG-RS process, and risk priority numbers (RPNs) were estimated for each failure mode to facilitate risk stratification. The failure modes were ranked by RPN, and FTA was used to determine the root factors contributing to the riskiest failure modes. Using the FTA, mitigation strategies were formulated to address the root factors and reduce the risk of the process. The RPNs were re-estimated based on the mitigation strategies to determine the margin of risk reduction. The FMEA and FTAs for the top two failure modes required an effort of 36 person-hours (30 person-hours for the FMEA and 6 person-hours for two FTAs). The SIG-RS process consisted of 13 major subprocesses and 91 steps, which amounted to 167 failure modes. Of the 91 steps, 16 were directly related to surface imaging. Twenty-five failure modes resulted in a RPN of 100 or greater. Only one of these top 25 failure modes was specific to surface imaging. The riskiest surface imaging failure mode had an overall RPN-rank of eighth

  9. Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Women in Development Division

    1989-01-01

    This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...

  10. ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY OF NONRECTORABLE REDUNDANT POWER SYSTEMS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT COMMON FAILURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Anischenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliability Analysis of nonrestorable redundant power Systems of industrial plants and other consumers of electric energy was carried out. The main attention was paid to numbers failures influence, caused by failures of all elements of System due to one general reason. Noted the main possible reasons of common failures formation. Two main indicators of reliability of non-restorable systems are considered: average time of no-failure operation and mean probability of no-failure operation. Modeling of failures were carried out by mean of division of investigated system into two in-series connected subsystems, one of them indicated independent failures, but the other indicated common failures. Due to joined modeling of single and common failures resulting intensity of failures is the amount incompatible components: intensity statistically independent failures and intensity of common failures of elements and system in total.It is shown the influence of common failures of elements on average time of no-failure operation of system. There is built the scale of preference of systems according to criterion of  average time maximum of no-failure operation, depending on portion of common failures. It is noticed that such common failures don’t influence on the scale of preference, but  change intervals of time, determining the moments of systems failures and excepting them from the number of comparators. There were discussed two problems  of conditionally optimization of  systems’  reservation choice, taking into account their reliability and cost. The first problem is solved due to criterion of minimum cost of system providing mean probability of no-failure operation, the second problem is solved due to criterion of maximum of mean probability of no-failure operation with cost limitation of system.

  11. Analysis of Millstone Unit 1 system failure and maintenance data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickel, J.H.; Beveridge, R.L.; Jain, N.K.; Owens, D.B.; Radder, J.A.

    1985-01-01

    As a result of a task force plan developed four years ago at Northeast Utilities, plant-specific probabilistic safety analysis models are being developed for all Northeast Utilities operating nuclear plants. An essential feature of these models is their reliance on plant-specific reliability information to the maximum extent possible. This assures that future design efforts and decisions on backfitting or procedure changes are made with full knowledge of existing plant reliability. The use of plant-specific reliability data assures that the impacts of problem components are given appropriate attention and that proper credit is given for those components, which because of plant-specific maintenance practices, have exhibited better than industry average performance. A case study of a portion of the Millstone-1 cooling system demonstrates differing results obtained by fault tree analysis and a reliability analysis using plant-specific failure data. When risk assessment techniques are being applied in resource allocation, usage of plant data clearly becomes essential for sound decision making

  12. Economic impact analysis of short line railroads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This research project assesses the economic role and impact of short line railroads in the state of Louisiana. While relatively small in : scope, with 11 operators and approximately 500 miles of track, short line railroads play a significant role in ...

  13. Propagated failure analysis for non-repairable systems considering both global and selective effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Chaonan; Xing Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes an algorithm for the reliability analysis of non-repairable binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation events with both global and selective failure effects. A propagated failure that originates from a system component causes extensive damage to the rest of the system. Global effect happens when the propagated failure causes the entire system to fail; whereas selective effect happens when the propagated failure causes only failure of a subset of system components. In both cases, the failure propagation that originates from some system components (referred to as dependent components) can be isolated because of functional dependence between the dependent components and a component that prevents the failure propagation (trigger components) when the failure of the trigger component happens before the occurrence of the propagated failure. Most existing studies focus on the analysis of propagated failures with global effect. However, in many cases, propagated failures affect only a subset of system components not the entire system. Existing approaches for analyzing propagated failures with selective effect are limited to series-parallel systems. This paper proposes a combinatorial method for the propagated failure analysis considering both global and selective effects as well as the competition with the failure isolation in the time domain. The proposed method is not limited to series-parallel systems and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. The method is verified using the Markov-based method. An example of computer memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

  14. Bayesian analysis of repairable systems showing a bounded failure intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guida, Maurizio; Pulcini, Gianpaolo

    2006-01-01

    The failure pattern of repairable mechanical equipment subject to deterioration phenomena sometimes shows a finite bound for the increasing failure intensity. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with bounded increasing failure intensity is then illustrated and its characteristics are discussed. A Bayesian procedure, based on prior information on model-free quantities, is developed in order to allow technical information on the failure process to be incorporated into the inferential procedure and to improve the inference accuracy. Posterior estimation of the model-free quantities and of other quantities of interest (such as the optimal replacement interval) is provided, as well as prediction on the waiting time to the next failure and on the number of failures in a future time interval is given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedure

  15. Analysis of acetal toilet fill valve supply line nut failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Timpanaro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a rise in the number of product liability cases involving the failure of toilet water supply line acetal plastic nuts. These nuts can fail in service, causing water leaks that result in significant property and financial losses. This study examines three possible failure modes of acetal plastic toilet water supply nuts. The three failure modes tested were all due to over load failure of the acetal nut and are as follows: (1 Overtightening of the supply line acetal nut, (2 Supply line lateral pull and, (3 Embrittled supply line lateral pull. Additionally, a “hand-tight” torque survey was conducted. The fracture surfaces and characteristics of these failure tests were examined with Stereo Microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM. The failure modes were compared and contrasted to provide guidance in determination of cause in these investigations.

  16. Observations on analysis, testing and failure of prestressed concrete containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, D.W.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews the mechanics which indicate that a bursting failure with large energy release is the failure mechanism to be expected from ductile lined containment structures pressurized to failure. It reviews a study which shows that, because of leakage, this is not the case for unlined prestressed containments. It argues that current practice, since it does not specifically address the bursting failure problem for lined prestressed containments, is inadequate to ensure that this type of failure could not occur. It concludes that, in view of the inadequacy of the current state-of-the-art to predict leakage from lined structures, the logical remedy is to eliminate all possibility of bursting failure by making provision for venting of containments. (orig.)

  17. Failure mode and effects analysis: A community practice perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuller, Bradley W; Burns, Angi; Ceilley, Elizabeth A; King, Alan; LeTourneau, Joan; Markovic, Alexander; Sterkel, Lynda; Taplin, Brigid; Wanner, Jennifer; Albert, Jeffrey M

    2017-11-01

    To report our early experiences with failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) in a community practice setting. The FMEA facilitator received extensive training at the AAPM Summer School. Early efforts focused on department education and emphasized the need for process evaluation in the context of high profile radiation therapy accidents. A multidisciplinary team was assembled with representation from each of the major department disciplines. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) was identified as the most appropriate treatment technique for the first FMEA evaluation, as it is largely self-contained and has the potential to produce high impact failure modes. Process mapping was completed using breakout sessions, and then compiled into a simple electronic format. Weekly sessions were used to complete the FMEA evaluation. Risk priority number (RPN) values > 100 or severity scores of 9 or 10 were considered high risk. The overall time commitment was also tracked. The final SRS process map contained 15 major process steps and 183 subprocess steps. Splitting the process map into individual assignments was a successful strategy for our group. The process map was designed to contain enough detail such that another radiation oncology team would be able to perform our procedures. Continuous facilitator involvement helped maintain consistent scoring during FMEA. Practice changes were made responding to the highest RPN scores, and new resulting RPN scores were below our high-risk threshold. The estimated person-hour equivalent for project completion was 258 hr. This report provides important details on the initial steps we took to complete our first FMEA, providing guidance for community practices seeking to incorporate this process into their quality assurance (QA) program. Determining the feasibility of implementing complex QA processes into different practice settings will take on increasing significance as the field of radiation oncology transitions into the new TG-100 QA

  18. Physicochemical characterization and failure analysis of military coating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keene, Lionel Thomas

    Modern military coating systems, as fielded by all branches of the U.S. military, generally consist of a diverse array of organic and inorganic components that can complicate their physicochemical analysis. These coating systems consist of VOC-solvent/waterborne automotive grade polyurethane matrix containing a variety of inorganic pigments and flattening agents. The research presented here was designed to overcome the practical difficulties regarding the study of such systems through the combined application of several cross-disciplinary techniques, including vibrational spectroscopy, electron microscopy, microtomy, ultra-fast laser ablation and optical interferometry. The goal of this research has been to determine the degree and spatial progression of weathering-induced alteration of military coating systems as a whole, as well as to determine the failure modes involved, and characterizing the impact of these failures on the physical barrier performance of the coatings. Transmission-mode Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has been applied to cross-sections of both baseline and artificially weathered samples to elucidate weathering-induced spatial gradients to the baseline chemistry of the coatings. A large discrepancy in physical durability (as indicated by the spatial progression of these gradients) has been found between older and newer generation coatings. Data will be shown implicating silica fillers (previously considered inert) as the probable cause for this behavioral divergence. A case study is presented wherein the application of the aforementioned FTIR technique fails to predict the durability of the coating system as a whole. The exploitation of the ultra-fast optical phenomenon of femtosecond (10-15S) laser ablation is studied as a potential tool to facilitate spectroscopic depth profiling of composite materials. Finally, the interferometric technique of Phase Shifting was evaluated as a potential high-sensitivity technique applied to the

  19. Data analysis using the Binomial Failure Rate common cause model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report explains how to use the Binomial Failure Rate (BFR) method to estimate common cause failure rates. The entire method is described, beginning with the conceptual model, and covering practical issues of data preparation, treatment of variation in the failure rates, Bayesian estimation of the quantities of interest, checking the model assumptions for lack of fit to the data, and the ultimate application of the answers

  20. Analysis and prevention of human failure in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xinshuan

    2001-01-01

    Based on the performances in Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant and the common experience from the world nuclear industry, the features and usual kinds of human failures in nuclear power plants are highlighted and the prominent factors on the personal, external and decision problems which might cause the human failures are analyzed. Effective preventive measures have been proposed respectively. Some successful human-failure-prevention practices applied in the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant are illustrated specifically

  1. System reliability analysis using dominant failure modes identified by selective searching technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong-Seok; Ok, Seung-Yong; Song, Junho; Koh, Hyun-Moo

    2013-01-01

    The failure of a redundant structural system is often described by innumerable system failure modes such as combinations or sequences of local failures. An efficient approach is proposed to identify dominant failure modes in the space of random variables, and then perform system reliability analysis to compute the system failure probability. To identify dominant failure modes in the decreasing order of their contributions to the system failure probability, a new simulation-based selective searching technique is developed using a genetic algorithm. The system failure probability is computed by a multi-scale matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method. Lower-scale MSR analyses evaluate the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence. A higher-scale MSR analysis evaluates the system failure probability based on the results of the lower-scale analyses. Three illustrative examples demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach through comparison with existing methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed method skillfully identifies the dominant failure modes, including those neglected by existing approaches. The multi-scale MSR method accurately evaluates the system failure probability with statistical dependence fully considered. The decoupling between the failure mode identification and the system reliability evaluation allows for effective applications to larger structural systems

  2. The Nabucco project's economic failure - Lessons for the European Union's foreign gas policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2010-01-01

    This article criticises the new strategy of the European Union's foreign gas policy. The new policy translates in the setting up of gas corridors to diversify importations in a context of increased political competition with Russia. The inherent limitations of the EU's plan to promote the Nabucco gas pipeline as merchant line without seeking exporter involvement in the project are analysed. Such limitations are analysed through various economic prospects. A micro-economic calculation shows the significance of the use rate of a gas pipeline for profitability. The competition theory shows the possibility for an existing dominating firm to compete with a newcomer's investment by building equipment likely to pre-empt access to the resources. The transaction cost saving shows how long term undertakings between producers and suppliers are necessary for the development of transit infrastructures and distant gas fields. The article ends with the need for economic relevance in the EU's gas policy actions. (author)

  3. Common-Cause Failure Analysis in Event Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.; Kelly, D.L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the basic concepts of modeling common-cause failures (CCFs) in reliability and risk studies and then applies these concepts to the treatment of CCF in event assessment. The cases of a failed component (with and without shared CCF potential) and a component being unavailable due to preventive maintenance or testing are addressed. The treatment of two related failure modes (e.g. failure to start and failure to run) is a new feature of this paper, as is the treatment of asymmetry within a common-cause component group

  4. The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.

  5. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  6. [Failure mode and effects analysis on computerized drug prescriptions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes-Atenciano, J A; Roldán-Aviña, J P; González-García, Mercedes; Blanco-Sánchez, M C; Pinto-Melero, M A; Pérez-Ramírez, C; Calvo Rubio-Burgos, Miguel; Osuna-Navarro, F J; Jurado-Carmona, A M

    2015-01-01

    To identify and analyze errors in drug prescriptions of patients treated in a "high resolution" hospital by applying a Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA).Material and methods A multidisciplinary group of medical specialties and nursing analyzed medical records where drug prescriptions were held in free text format. An FMEA was developed in which the risk priority index (RPI) was obtained from a cross-sectional observational study using an audit of the medical records, carried out in 2 phases: 1) Pre-intervention testing, and (2) evaluation of improvement actions after the first analysis. An audit sample size of 679 medical records from a total of 2,096 patients was calculated using stratified sampling and random selection of clinical events. Prescription errors decreased by 22.2% in the second phase. FMEA showed a greater RPI in "unspecified route of administration" and "dosage unspecified", with no significant decreases observed in the second phase, although it did detect, "incorrect dosing time", "contraindication due to drug allergy", "wrong patient" or "duplicate prescription", which resulted in the improvement of prescriptions. Drug prescription errors have been identified and analyzed by FMEA methodology, improving the clinical safety of these prescriptions. This tool allows updates of electronic prescribing to be monitored. To avoid such errors would require the mandatory completion of all sections of a prescription. Copyright © 2014 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Analysis Method of Common Cause Failure on Non-safety Digital Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eun Gse [KHNP, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    The effects of common cause failure on safety digital instrumentation and control system had been considered in defense in depth analysis with safety analysis method. However, the effects of common cause failure on non-safety digital instrumentation and control system also should be evaluated. The common cause failure can be included in credible failure on the non-safety system. In the I and C architecture of nuclear power plant, many design feature has been applied for the functional integrity of control system. One of that is segmentation. Segmentation defenses the propagation of faults in the I and C architecture. Some of effects from common cause failure also can be limited by segmentation. Therefore, in this paper there are two type of failure mode, one is failures in one control group which is segmented, and the other is failures in multiple control group because that the segmentation cannot defense all effects from common cause failure. For each type, the worst failure scenario is needed to be determined, so the analysis method has been proposed in this paper. The evaluation can be qualitative when there is sufficient justification that the effects are bounded in previous safety analysis. When it is not bounded in previous safety analysis, additional analysis should be done with conservative assumptions method of previous safety analysis or best estimation method with realistic assumptions.

  8. Cross-border reproductive care : market forces in action or market failure? An economic perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Connolly, Mark

    2011-01-01

    From an economist's perspective, cross-border reproductive care (CBRC) reflects a global market economy bringing together the needs of patients and skills of doctors at an agreed price. From this perspective CBRC is neither wrong nor right, rather it reflects rational economic behaviour of couples

  9. The economic impact of Medicare Part D on congestive heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Timothy M; Blanchard, Tericke D; Gallo, Paul D; Semilla, April P

    2013-05-01

    Medicare Part D has had important implications for patient outcomes and treatment costs among beneficiaries with congestive heart failure (CHF). This study finds that improved medication adherence associated with expansion of drug coverage under Part D led to nearly $2.6 billion in reductions in medical expenditures annually among beneficiaries diagnosed with CHF and without prior comprehensive drug coverage, of which over $2.3 billion was savings to Medicare. Further improvements in adherence could potentially save Medicare another $1.9 billion annually, generating upwards of $22.4 billion in federal savings over 10 years.

  10. A big data analysis approach for rail failure risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamshidi, A.; Faghih Roohi, S.; Hajizadeh, S.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Babuska, R.; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2017-01-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by

  11. Metallized Film Capacitor Lifetime Evaluation and Failure Mode Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gallay, R.

    2015-06-15

    One of the main concerns for power electronic engineers regarding capacitors is to predict their remaining lifetime in order to anticipate costly failures or system unavailability. This may be achieved using a Weibull statistical law combined with acceleration factors for the temperature, the voltage, and the humidity. This paper discusses the different capacitor failure modes and their effects and consequences.

  12. Analysis of transient fuel failure mechanisms: selected ANL programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deitrich, L.W.

    1975-01-01

    Analytical programs at Argonne National Laboratory related to fuel pin failure mechanisms in fast-reactor accident transients are described. The studies include transient fuel pin mechanics, mechanics of unclad fuel, and mechanical effects concerning potential fuel failure propagation. (U.S.).

  13. Letter report seismic shutdown system failure mode and effect analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KECK, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The Supply Ventilation System Seismic Shutdown ensures that the 234-52 building supply fans, the dry air process fans and vertical development calciner are shutdown following a seismic event. This evaluates the failure modes and determines the effects of the failure modes

  14. Economics In Optical Design, Analysis, And Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Ronald R.

    1983-10-01

    There are indications that we are entering an era wherein economics will play an increasing role in the optical design and production process. Economics has always been a factor in the competition between commercial ventures in the product arena. Now, we may begin to see competition between different technologies for the scarce resources of the society, including money. A proper design approach begins with a thorough examination and refinement of the requirements from the top down. The interrelationships of the various components must be properly understood and balanced. The specifications must be clear, complete, and realistic. Improper or incomplete system design can cause an extensive waste of resources. The detail optical design to meet the performance requirements has sometimes been the only part of the process that the designer has considered his own responsibility. The final optimization should also consider economic related factors: the cost of tolerances, the available tools test plates, materials, and test equipment. In the preliminary design stage, he should have decided which alignment and test methods are most appropriate to the system. The distribution of tolerances in an optical/mechanical system is a frequently neglected opportunity to reduce cost. We have reported previously on our work in this area, and expand further on it in the context of this paper. The designer now has an opportunity to generate better designs at a lower cost that are more economical to produce. The watchword for the 1980's may become the one found in the assembly automation industry: "more, better, for less".

  15. Directors’ and Officers’ Liability: Economic Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. C. Leyens (Patrick); M.G. Faure (Michael)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractThis paper will be published as a chapter of the forthcoming volume ‘Directors & Officers Liability’ edited by Simon F. Deakin, Helmut Koziol, and Olaf Riss. It explores D&O liability from a law and economics perspective with a view to identify trade-offs of different legal settings.

  16. A trial-based economic evaluation of 2 nurse-led disease management programs in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Pari, Anees A Abdul; Jaarsma, Tiny; Luttik, Marie Louise; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2011-12-01

    Although previously conducted meta-analyses suggest that nurse-led disease management programs in heart failure (HF) can improve patient outcomes, uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness of such programs remains. To compare the relative merits of 2 variants of a nurse-led disease management program (basic or intensive support by a nurse specialized in the management of patients with HF) against care as usual (routine follow-up by a cardiologist), a trial-based economic evaluation was conducted alongside the COACH study. In terms of costs per life-year, basic support was found to dominate care as usual, whereas the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between intensive support and basic support was found to be equal to €532,762 per life-year; in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), basic support was found to dominate both care as usual and intensive support. An assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these findings showed that, at a threshold value of €20,000 per life-year/€20,000 per QALY, basic support was found to have a probability of 69/62% of being optimal against 17/30% and 14/8% for care as usual and intensive support, respectively. The results of our subgroup analysis suggest that a stratified approach based on offering basic support to patients with mild to moderate HF and intensive support to patients with severe HF would be optimal if the willingness-to-pay threshold exceeds €45,345 per life-year/€59,289 per QALY. Although the differences in costs and effects among the 3 study groups were not statistically significant, from a decision-making perspective, basic support still had a relatively large probability of generating the highest health outcomes at the lowest costs. Our results also substantiated that a stratified approach based on offering basic support to patients with mild to moderate HF and intensive support to patients with severe HF could further improve health outcomes at slightly higher costs. Copyright

  17. Failure analysis of the cement mantle in total hip arthroplasty with an efficient probabilistic method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaymaz, Irfan; Bayrak, Ozgu; Karsan, Orhan; Celik, Ayhan; Alsaran, Akgun

    2014-04-01

    Accurate prediction of long-term behaviour of cemented hip implants is very important not only for patient comfort but also for elimination of any revision operation due to failure of implants. Therefore, a more realistic computer model was generated and then used for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses of the hip implant in this study. The deterministic failure analysis was carried out for the most common failure states of the cement mantle. On the other hand, most of the design parameters of the cemented hip are inherently uncertain quantities. Therefore, the probabilistic failure analysis was also carried out considering the fatigue failure of the cement mantle since it is the most critical failure state. However, the probabilistic analysis generally requires large amount of time; thus, a response surface method proposed in this study was used to reduce the computation time for the analysis of the cemented hip implant. The results demonstrate that using an efficient probabilistic approach can significantly reduce the computation time for the failure probability of the cement from several hours to minutes. The results also show that even the deterministic failure analyses do not indicate any failure of the cement mantle with high safety factors, the probabilistic analysis predicts the failure probability of the cement mantle as 8%, which must be considered during the evaluation of the success of the cemented hip implants.

  18. Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

    2008-11-01

    Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

  19. ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suparna Wijaya

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

  20. Analysis of grouped data from field-failure reporting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coit, David W.; Dey, Kieron A.

    1999-01-01

    Observed reliability data from fielded systems is highly desirable because they implicitly account for all actual usage and environmental stresses. Many companies and large organizations have instituted automated field-failure reporting systems to organize and disseminate these data. Despite these advantages, field data must be used with caution because they often lack sufficient detail. Specifically, the precise times-to-failure are often not recorded and only cumulative failure quantities and operating times are available. When only data of this type are available, it is difficult to determine whether component or system hazard function varies with time or is constant (i.e., exponential distribution). Analysts often use the exponential distribution to model time-to-failure because the distribution parameter can be estimated with just the merged data. However, this can be dangerous if the exponential distribution is not appropriate. An approach is presented in this paper for Type II censored data, with and without replacement, to evaluate this assumption even when individual times-to-failure are not available. A hypothesis test is presented to test the suitability of the exponential distribution for a particular data set composed of multiple merged data records. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the approach. The hypothesis test readily rejects an exponential distribution assumption when the data originate from a Weibull distribution. This is a very important result because it has generally been assumed that time-to-failure data were always required to evaluate the suitability of specific time-to-failure distributions

  1. Failure analysis of burst tested fuel tube samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmaprabu, C.; Ramana Rao, S.V.; Srivatsava, R.K.

    2005-01-01

    The Total Circumferential Elongation (TCE) is an important parameter for evaluation of ductility of the Zircaloy-4 fuel tubes for the PHWR reactors. The TCE values of the fuel tubes were obtained using the burst testing technique. In some lots there is a variation in the values of the TCE. To investigate the reasons for such a large variation in the TCE, samples were selected at appropriate intervals and sectioned at the fractured portion. The surface morphology of the fractured surfaces was examined under Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) equipped with Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS). The morphologies show segregation of elements at specific locations. Energy dispersive spectra was obtained from those segregated particles. According to the magnitude of TCE value the samples were classified into low, intermediate and high ductility. Low ductility samples were found to contain large amount of segregations along the thickness direction of the tube. This forms a brittle region and a path for the easy crack growth along thickness direction. In the case of intermediate samples the segregation occurred in fewer locations compared to low ductile samples and also confined to the circumferential direction of the outside surface of the tube. Due to this, probability of crack formation at the surface of the tube could be high. But crack growth would be slower in the ductile matrix along the thickness direction resulting in the enhancement of TCE value compared to the low ductile sample. In the high ductile samples, the segregations were very scarce and found to be isolated and embedded in the ductile matrix. The mode of failure in these types of samples was found to be purely ductile. Cracks were found to originate solely from the micro voids in the material. As the probability of crack formation and its propagation is low, very high TCE values were observed in these samples. Microstructural observations of fractured surfaces and EDAX analysis was able to identify the

  2. Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

  3. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fries, Juliana.

    1988-01-01

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  4. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  5. Comprehensive method of common-mode failure analysis for LMFBR safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unione, A.J.; Ritzman, R.L.; Erdmann, R.C.

    1976-01-01

    A technique is demonstrated which allows the systematic treatment of common-mode failures of safety system performance. The technique uses log analysis in the form of fault and success trees to qualitatively assess the sources of common-mode failure and quantitatively estimate the contribution to the overall risk of system failure. The analysis is applied to the secondary control rod system of an early sized LMFBR

  6. Analysis of the failure of a vacuum spin-pit drive turbine spindle shaft

    OpenAIRE

    Pettitt, Jason M.

    2005-01-01

    The Naval Postgraduate School's Rotor Spin Research Facility experienced a failure in the Spring of 2005 in which the rotor dropped from the drive turbine and caused extensive damage. A failure analysis of the drive turbine spindle shaft was conducted in order to determine the cause of failure: whether due to a material or design flaw. Also, a dynamic analysis was conducted in order to determine the natural modes present in the system and the associated frequencies that could have contributed...

  7. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, P.D.

    1991-01-01

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  8. Failure Analysis of Heavy-Ion-Irradiated Schottky Diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Megan C.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Wilcox, Edward P.; Topper, Alyson D.; Campola, Michael J.; Label, Kenneth A.

    2017-01-01

    In this work, we use high- and low-magnitude optical microscope images, infrared camera images, and scanning electron microscope images to identify and describe the failure locations in heavy-ion-irradiated Schottky diodes.

  9. Failure Analysis of High-Power Piezoelectric Transducers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gabrielson, T. B

    2005-01-01

    ... and stress in a piezoelectric material. For a transducer operated near resonance, there will be "hot spots" or regions of locally intense stress and electric field that precipitate premature failure...

  10. Failure Analysis of Alumina Reinforced Aluminum Microtruss and Tube Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Hsueh Fen (Karen)

    The energy absorption capacity of cellular materials can be dramatically increased by applying a structural coating. This thesis examined the failure mechanisms of alumina reinforced 3003 aluminum alloy microtrusses and tubes. Alumina coatings were produced by hard anodizing and by plasma electrolytic oxidation (PEO). The relatively thin and discontinuous oxide coating at the hinge acted as a localized weak spot which triggered a chain reaction of failure, including oxide fracture, oxide spallation, oxide penetration to the aluminum core and severe local plastic deformation of the core. For the PEO microtrusses, delamination occurred within the oxide coating resulting in a global strut buckling failure mode. A new failure mode for the anodized tubes was observed: (i) axisymmetric folding of the aluminum core, (ii) longitudinal fracture, and (iii) alumina pulverization. Overall, the alumina coating enhanced the buckling resistance of the composites, while the aluminum core supported the oxide during the damage propagation.

  11. Service reliability assessment using failure mode and effect analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Statistical Process Control Teng and Ho (1996) .... are still remaining left on modelling the interaction between impact of internal service failure and ..... Design error proofing: development of automated error-proofing information systems, Proceedings of.

  12. A Panel Analysis Of UK Industrial Company Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Isachenkova; John Hunter

    2002-01-01

    We examine the failure determinants for large quoted UK industrials using a panel data set comprising 539 firms observed over the period 1988-93. The empirical design employs data from company accounts and is based on Chamberlain’s conditional binomial logit model, which allows for unobservable, firm-specific, time-invariant factors associated with failure risk. We find a noticeable degree of heterogeneity across the sample companies. Our panel results show that, after controll...

  13. Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C

    2010-02-01

    The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.

  14. Reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    This paper suggests two combinatorial algorithms for the reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation effects. Propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is referred to as a failure that not only causes outage to the component from which the failure originates, but also propagates through all other system components causing the entire system failure. However, the propagation effect from the PFGE can be isolated in systems with functional dependence (FDEP) behavior. This paper studies two distinct consequences of PFGE resulting from a competition in the time domain between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects. As compared to existing works on competing failures that are limited to systems with a single FDEP group, this paper considers more complicated cases where the systems have multiple dependent FDEP groups. Analysis of such systems is more challenging because both the occurrence order between the trigger failure event and PFGE from the dependent components and the occurrence order among the multiple trigger failure events have to be considered. Two combinatorial and analytical algorithms are proposed. Both of them have no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. Their correctness is verified using a Markov-based method. An example of memory systems is analyzed to demonstrate and compare the applications and advantages of the two proposed algorithms. - Highlights: ► Reliability of binary systems with multiple dependent functional dependence groups is analyzed. ► Competing failure propagation and failure isolation effect is considered. ► The proposed algorithms are combinatorial and applicable to any arbitrary type of time-to-failure distributions for system components.

  15. An engineering approach to common mode failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gangloff, W.C.; Franke, T.H.

    1975-01-01

    Safety systems for nuclear reactors can be designed using standard reliability engineering techniques such that system failure due to random component faults is extremely unlikely. However, the common-mode failure where several components fail together from a common cause is not susceptible to prevention by the usual tactics. In systems where a high degree of redundancy has been employed, the actual reliability of the system in service may be limited by common-mode failures. A methodical and thorough procedure for evaluation of system vulnerability to common-mode failures is presented. This procedure was developed for use in nuclear reactor safety systems and has been applied specifically to reactor protection. The method offers a qualitative assessment of a system whereby weak points can be identified and the resistance to common-mode failure can be judged. It takes into account all factors influencing system performance including design, manufacturing, installation, operation, testing, and maintenance. It is not a guarantee or sure solution, but rather a practical tool which can provide good assurance that the probability of common-mode protection failure has been made acceptably low. (author)

  16. Trend analysis of cables failure events at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fushimi, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    In this study, 152 failure events related with cables at overseas nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Database, which is owned by The Institute of Nuclear Safety System, and these events are analyzed in view of occurrence, causal factor, and so on. And 15 failure events related with cables at domestic nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Archives, which is owned by JANTI, and these events are analyzed by the same manner. As a result of comparing both trends, it is revealed following; 1) A cable insulator failure rate is lower at domestic nuclear power plants than at foreign ones. It is thought that a deterioration diagnosis is performed broadly in Japan. 2) Many buried cables failure events have been occupied a significant portion of cables failure events during work activity at overseas plants, however none has been occurred at domestic plants. It is thought that sufficient survey is conducted before excavating activity in Japan. 3) A domestic age related cables failure rate in service is lower than the overseas one and domestic improper maintenance rate is higher than the overseas one. Maintenance worker' a skill improvement is expected in order to reduce improper maintenance. (author)

  17. An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Dingqin

    1989-01-01

    An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle is developed. This economic code includes 12 subroutines representing vavious processes for entire PWR fuel cycle, and indicates the influence of the fuel cost on the cost of the electricity generation and the influence of individual process on the sensitivity of the fuel cycle cost

  18. Management of Advanced Heart Failure in the Elderly: Ethics, Economics, and Resource Allocation in the Technological Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith M. Swetz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant strides have been made in the durability, portability, and safety of mechanical circulatory support devices (MCS. Although transplant is considered the standard treatment for advanced heart failure, limits in organ availability leave a much larger pool of recipients in need versus donors. MCS is used as bridge to transplantation and as destination therapy (DT for patients who will have MCS as their final invasive therapy with transplant not being an option. Despite improvements in quality of life (QOL and survival, defining the optimal candidate for DT may raise questions regarding the economics of this approach as well as ethical concerns regarding just distribution of goods and services. This paper highlights some of the key ethical issues related to justice and the costs of life-prolonging therapies with respect to resource allocations. Available literature, current debates, and future directions are discussed herein.

  19. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  20. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.

    1979-03-01

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  1. Achieving salt-cooled reactor goals: economics, variable electricity, no major fuel failures - 15118

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, C.

    2015-01-01

    The Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) with a Nuclear air-Brayton Combined Cycle (NACC) and Firebrick Resistance-Heated Energy Storage (FIRES) is a new reactor concept. The FHR uses High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) coated-particle fuel and liquid-salt coolants originally developed for molten salt reactors (MSRs) where the fuel was dissolved in the coolant. The FIRES system consists of high-temperature firebrick heated to high temperatures with electricity at times of low electric prices. For a modular FHR operating with a base-load 100 MWe output, the station output can vary from -242 MWe to +242 MWe. The FHR can be built in different sizes. The reactor concept was developed using a top-down approach: markets, requirements, reactor design. The goals are: (1) increase plant revenue by 50 to 100% relative to base-load nuclear plants with capital costs similar to light-water reactors, (2) enable a zero-carbon nuclear renewable electricity grid, and (3) no potential for major fuel failure and thus no potential for major radionuclide offsite releases in a beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA). The basis for the goals and how they may be achieved is described

  2. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-12-01

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  3. Galectin-3: a new biomarker for the diagnosis, analysis and prognosis of acute and chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrynchyshyn, Nataliya; Jourdain, Patrick; Desnos, Michel; Diebold, Benoit; Funck, François

    2013-10-01

    Heart failure constitutes an important medical, social and economic problem. The prevalence of heart failure is estimated as 2-3% of the adult population and increases with age, despite the scientific progress of the past decade, especially the emergence of natriuretic peptides, which have been widely used as reliable markers for diagnostic and prognostic evaluation. Identification of new reliable markers for diagnosis, analysis, prognosis of mortality and prevention of hospitalization is still necessary. Galectin-3 is a soluble β-galactoside-binding protein secreted by activated macrophages. Its main action is to bind to and activate the fibroblasts that form collagen and scar tissue, leading to progressive cardiac fibrosis. Numerous experimental studies have shown the important role of galectin-3 in cardiac remodelling due to fibrosis, independent of the fibrosis aetiology. Galectin-3 is significantly increased in chronic heart failure (acute or non-acute onset), independent of aetiology. Some clinical studies have confirmed the predictive value of galectin-3 in all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. In our review, we aim to analyse the role of galectin-3 in the development of heart failure, its value in screening and clinical decision making and its possible predictive application in follow-up as a "routine" test in an addition to established biomarkers, such as B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Failure analysis of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yanfei; Zhang, Hong; Zhang, Juan; Li, Xin; Zhou, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study failure of high strength pipelines with single corrosion. • We give regression equations for failure pressure prediction. • We propose assessment procedure for pipelines with multiple corrosions. - Abstract: Corrosion will compromise safety operation of oil and gas pipelines, accurate determination of failure pressure finds importance in residual strength assessment and corrosion allowance design of onshore and offshore pipelines. This paper investigates failure pressure of high strength pipeline with single and multiple corrosions using nonlinear finite element analysis. On the basis of developed regression equations for failure pressure prediction of high strength pipeline with single corrosion, the paper proposes an assessment procedure for predicting failure pressure of high strength pipeline with multiple corrosions. Furthermore, failure pressures predicted by proposed solutions are compared with experimental results and various assessment methods available in literature, where accuracy and versatility are demonstrated

  5. Exploitation of a component event data bank for common cause failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Games, A.M.; Amendola, A.; Martin, P.

    1985-01-01

    Investigations into using the European Reliability Data System Component Event Data Bank for common cause failure analysis have been carried out. Starting from early exercises where data were analyzed without computer aid, different types of linked multiple failures have been identified. A classification system is proposed based on this experience. It defines a multiple failure event space wherein each category defines causal, modal, temporal and structural links between failures. It is shown that a search algorithm which incorporates the specific interrogative procedures of the data bank can be developed in conjunction with this classification system. It is concluded that the classification scheme and the search algorithm are useful organizational tools in the field of common cause failures studies. However, it is also suggested that the use of the term common cause failure should be avoided since it embodies to many different types of linked multiple failures

  6. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  7. Basis of economic analysis of Czech firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Chmelíková

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available When looking for connections between particular business’s activities, theory of financial management uses pyramidal system of indicators. The effectiveness of this tool is based on the appropriate choice of the top indicator. Its decomposition enables to manage firm’s processes from the bottommost organizational levels to the main firm’s mission with respect to the connections between par­ti­cu­lar processes. The aim of this paper was to identify appropriate indicator, which corresponds with creation of firm’s value and design its decomposition. To measure creation of firm’s value it is nowadays very popular to use indicator Economic Value Added (EVA. Though from the theoretical point of view EVA is seen as a superior performance metric, the results of some empirical studies do not support this claim. That is why the information content of EVA was controlled in the concrete conditions of Czech Economy within this article. The results showed eligibility of using EVA in Czech firms and enabled to choose it as the top indicator in the pyramidal system. Ambition of further research is to design a complex of indicators offering a comprehensive economic view on the firm’s per­for­man­ce.

  8. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  9. Scrutinizing The Epistemology of Islamic Economics: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurizal Ismail

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The first International Conference on Islamic Economics was held in Makkah, in 1976. Economists, jurists and scholars met together to discuss issues of Muslim ummah. However, there was many books written related to Islamic economics in the history of Islamic civilization, especially in the period of Abbasid caliphate. The fact, development of knowledge in Islamic medieval had established the epistemology of Islamic economics itself. Moreover, the epistemology is a study of the theory of knowledge, the source of knowledge, the application of knowledge and limitation of knowledge. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the contribution of earlier Muslim thinkers to the source of Islamic economics and to identify the epistemology of Islamic economics as proposed by the Muslim thinkers in medieval period. As a result, this paper will propose the epistemology of Islamic economics by integrating Islamic heritage and modern economics that is not conflict with Islamic principles and values. To achieve its objectives; this study employs qualitative research by applying content and descriptive analysis. The finding of this study is that the earlier Muslim thinkers have contributed to the construction of epistemology in Islamic economics. Then, to construct the genuine of Islamic economics, tawhid must be put as a core of Islamic economic epistemology that directs the sources of knowledge which are rooted firstly from revealed and then rational knowledge by using appropriate methods.

  10. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  11. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  12. Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using Steam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    acer

    Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using. Steam Distillation ... The return on investment (ROI) was 125%, internal rate of return ... oils, over dependency on petrodollar and ... The steam may be obtained from external boiler or.

  13. The Scrap Tire Problem: A Preliminary Economic Analysis (1985)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a preliminary economic analysis of the social benefits of EPA action to require more appropriate disposal of scrap tires versus the social costs of such an action.

  14. Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo local government, Osun state. ... Majority (78.3%) of the processors and marketers were making profit; 95.0% operate ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  15. Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State | Kudi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State. ... The paper examines the marketing channel, structure, conduct, performance and marketing margin and efficiency of sesame. A sample of ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  16. Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government Area Of Cross River State, Nigeria. ... Characteristics of the sellers, marketing channels, marketing margin and efficiency were also ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  17. Modular titanium alloy neck adapter failures in hip replacement - failure mode analysis and influence of implant material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloemer Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Modular neck adapters for hip arthroplasty stems allow the surgeon to modify CCD angle, offset and femoral anteversion intraoperatively. Fretting or crevice corrosion may lead to failure of such a modular device due to high loads or surface contamination inside the modular coupling. Unfortunately we have experienced such a failure of implants and now report our clinical experience with the failures in order to advance orthopaedic material research and joint replacement surgery. The failed neck adapters were implanted between August 2004 and November 2006 a total of about 5000 devices. After this period, the titanium neck adapters were replaced by adapters out of cobalt-chromium. Until the end of 2008 in total 1.4% (n = 68 of the implanted titanium alloy neck adapters failed with an average time of 2.0 years (0.7 to 4.0 years postoperatively. All, but one, patients were male, their average age being 57.4 years (36 to 75 years and the average weight 102.3 kg (75 to 130 kg. The failures of neck adapters were divided into 66% with small CCD of 130° and 60% with head lengths of L or larger. Assuming an average time to failure of 2.8 years, the cumulative failure rate was calculated with 2.4%. Methods A series of adapter failures of titanium alloy modular neck adapters in combination with a titanium alloy modular short hip stem was investigated. For patients having received this particular implant combination risk factors were identified which were associated with the occurence of implant failure. A Kaplan-Meier survival-failure-analysis was conducted. The retrieved implants were analysed using microscopic and chemical methods. Modes of failure were simulated in biomechanical tests. Comparative tests included modular neck adapters made of titanium alloy and cobalt chrome alloy material. Results Retrieval examinations and biomechanical simulation revealed that primary micromotions initiated fretting within the modular tapered neck

  18. POLITICAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Nuryanti

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rice self-sufficiency is an important programme in Indonesia. The programme has four major targets, i.e. increasing production, stabilizing prices and reserve stocks, and minimizing import. For that purpose, the government gave a mandate to a parastatal, namely National Logistic Agency (Bulog in implementing the rice policies. Some studies found that involvement of such a parastatal could lead to government failure in budget allocation. The study aimed to estimate social cost of rice self-sufficiency programme based on the implementation of rice instrument policies by Bulog. The study used the national annual data of 2002–2014 period. The method used was the political preference function model to estimate economic rent and dead-weight loss using rice price elasticity of demand and supply. The result showed that in terms of percentage of food security budget, the average of economic rent reached IDR 6.37 trillion per annum (18.54%, while the average of dead-weight loss amounted at IDR 0.90 trillion per annum (2.34%. It proved that rice self-sufficiency programme along with the involvement of Bulog was economically inefficient. The government should provide better agricultural infrastructure, review governmental procurement prices, and stop rice import policy to remedy market failure.

  19. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STAN IVAN F.E.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.

  20. Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-06-01

    la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

  1. Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Roger Nelson

    1987-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative ma...

  2. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  3. Failure characteristic analysis of a component on standby state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Sungmin; Kang, Hyungook

    2013-01-01

    Periodic operations for a specific type of component, however, can accelerate aging effects which increase component unavailability. For the other type of components, the aging effect caused by operation can be ignored. Therefore frequent operations can decrease component unavailability. Thus, to get optimum unavailability proper operation period and method should be studied considering the failure characteristics of each component. The information of component failure is given according to the main causes of failure depending on time flow. However, to get the optimal unavailability, proper interval of operation for inspection should be decided considering the time dependent and independent causes together. According to this study, gradually shorter operation interval for inspection is better to get the optimal component unavailability than that of specific period

  4. Review and analysis of check valve failure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todd, M.D.; Casada, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    Check valve operating problems in recent years have resulted in significant operating transients, increased cost and decreased system availability. There has been, in response, additional attention given to check valves by utilities, as well as the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Operation and Maintenance Committee. All these organizations have the fundamental goal of ensuring reliable operation of check valves. A key ingredient to an engineering-oriented reliability improvement effort is a thorough understanding of relevant historical experience. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is currently conducting a detailed review of historical failure data available through the Institute of Nuclear Power Operation's Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System. The focus of the review is on check valve failures that have involved significant degradation of the valve internal parts. A variety of parameters are being considered during the review, including size, age, system of service, method of failure discovery, the affected valve parts, attributed causes, and corrective actions

  5. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.

  6. Analysis of failure and maintenance experiences of motor operated valves in a Finnish nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Laakso, K.

    1992-01-01

    Operating experiences from 1981 up to 1989 of totally 104 motor operated closing valves (MOV) in different safety systems at TVO I and II nuclear power units were analysed in a systematic way. The qualitative methods used were failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and maintenance effects and criticality analysis (MECA). The failure descriptions were obtained from power plant's computerized failure reporting system. The reported 181 failure events were reanalysed and sorted according to specific classifications developed for the MOV function. Filled FMEA and MECA sheets on individual valves were stored in a microcomputer data base for further analyses. Analyses were performed for the failed mechanical and electrical valve parts, ways of detection of failure modes, failure effects, and repair and unavailability times

  7. Economic Loss to the Brazilian Regions Due to the Doha Round Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; Teixeira, Erly Cardoso; Gurgel, Angelo Costa

    2009-01-01

    We build a database and model to develop general equilibrium analysis of the Brazilian economy at the level of the five macro regions. The model is multiregional at global level as also at the Brazilian level. The project is coupled to the GTAP model through disaggregation of the original Brazilian input-output matrix and trade flows and follows the GTAPinGAMS structure and syntax to generate the General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). The regional database is t...

  8. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  9. Clinical and economic analysis of rescue intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalom-paz, Einat; Alshalati, Jana; Shehata, Fady; Jimenez, Luis; Son, Weon-Young; Holzer, Hananel; Tan, Seang Lin; Almog, Benny

    2011-12-01

    To identify clinical and embryological factors that may predict success in rescue intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles (after total fertilization failure has occurred) and to evaluate the cost effectiveness of rescue ICSI strategy. Additionally, follow-up of 20 rescue ICSI pregnancies is reported. Retrospective analysis of total fertilization failure cycles. University-based tertiary medical center. In total, 92 patients who had undergone conventional in-vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles with total fertilization failure were included. The patients were divided into two subgroups: those who conceived through rescue ICSI and those who did not. The pregnant members of the rescue ICSI subgroup were found to be significantly younger (32.9 ± 4.2 vs. 36.3 ± 4.5, respectively, p = 0.0035,) and to have better-quality embryos than those who did not conceive (cumulative embryo score: 38.3 ± 20.4 vs. 29.3 ± 14.7, p = 0.025). Cost effectiveness analysis showed 25% reduction in the cost per live birth when rescue ICSI is compared to cycle cancellation approach. The pregnancies follow-up did not show adverse perinatal outcome. Rescue ICSI is an option for salvaging IVF cycles complicated by total fertilization failure. Success in rescue ICSI was found to be associated with younger age and higher quality of embryos. Furthermore, the cost effectiveness of rescue ICSI in terms of total fertilization failure was found to be worthwhile.

  10. Statistical analysis of nuclear power plant pump failure rate variability: some preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Whiteman, D.E.

    1984-02-01

    In-Plant Reliability Data System (IPRDS) pump failure data on over 60 selected pumps in four nuclear power plants are statistically analyzed using the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC). A major purpose of the analysis is to determine which environmental, system, and operating factors adequately explain the variability in the failure data. Catastrophic, degraded, and incipient failure severity categories are considered for both demand-related and time-dependent failures. For catastrophic demand-related pump failures, the variability is explained by the following factors listed in their order of importance: system application, pump driver, operating mode, reactor type, pump type, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Quantitative failure rate adjustments are provided for the effects of these factors. In the case of catastrophic time-dependent pump failures, the failure rate variability is explained by three factors: reactor type, pump driver, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Finally, point and confidence interval failure rate estimates are provided for each selected pump by considering the influential factors. Both types of estimates represent an improvement over the estimates computed exclusively from the data on each pump

  11. Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with functional dependence in one of phases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chaonan; Xing, Liudong; Levitin, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes an algorithm for the reliability analysis of non-repairable phased-mission systems (PMS) subject to competing failure propagation and isolation effects. A failure originating from a system component which causes extensive damage to other system components is a propagated failure. When the propagated failure affects all the system components, causing the entire system failure, a propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) is said to occur. However, the failure propagation can be isolated in systems subject to functional dependence (FDEP) behavior, where the failure of a component (referred to as trigger component) causes some other components (referred to as dependent components) to become inaccessible or unusable (isolated from the system), and thus further failures from these dependent components have no effect on the system failure behavior. On the other hand, if any PFGE from dependent components occurs before the trigger failure, the failure propagation effect takes place, causing the overall system failure. In summary, there are two distinct consequences of a PFGE due to the competition between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects in the time domain. Existing works on such competing failures focus only on single-phase systems. However, many real-world systems are phased-mission systems (PMS), which involve multiple, consecutive and non-overlapping phases of operations or tasks. Consideration of competing failures for PMS is a challenging and difficult task because PMS exhibit dynamics in the system configuration and component behavior as well as statistical dependencies across phases for a given component. This paper proposes a combinatorial method to address the competing failure effects in the reliability analysis of binary non-repairable PMS. The proposed method is verified using a Markov-based method through a numerical example. Different from the Markov-based approach that is limited to exponential distribution, the

  12. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  13. Production, soil erosion and economic failure in new citrus plantations in Eastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez Morera, Antonio; Carles membrado, Joan; Cerdà, Artemi; Ángel González Peñaloza, Félix

    2013-04-01

    Eastern Spain has been worldwide well known by the high quality citrus production (Piqueras, 2012). During the last century, the export of València's oranges contributed to a high income in Spain albeit during the last decade the revenues for the small farmers were short (Bono, 2010). The orange agricultural specialization in València begun at the end of the eighteenth century in the town of Carcaixent, close to the Xúquer river, where the first commercial orange groves were planted. This was due to the climatic conditions (no frosts) and the traditional flood irrigation systems. The orange trade was not important until the second half of the nineteenth century, due to a combination of factors: i) the increasing demand of oranges from the United Kingdom, first, and then from Germany, France and other north-european industrialized countries; ii) the highly productive capacity of the Valencian soil thanks to its mild weather and irrigated fields; iii) the open mindedness of Valencian farmers towards innovation; and, iv) the developemnt of a railways network which made it possible to bring the oranges into the shipment ports (Bono, 2010; Piqueras, 2012). The Valencian orange trade knew its peak during the period 1925-1930 but later it experienced an economic crisis because of wars (both in Spain and Europe) and did not recover until the 1960's (Piqueras, 1999; Bono, 2010). After Spain's EEC (European Economic Community) membership (1986) and the creation of EU (1993) Valencian citrus sector grew: new orange groves were planted, new commercial varieties (especially mandarins) were promoted, and exports increased. Nevertheless, nowadays Valencian orange sector suffers from a structural problem: the small farm size and the lack of a good commercial network of distribution. But in spite of the current crisis, the orange groves' impact on landscape is still huge in Valencia, since it creates a thick forest of orange trees stretching not only the floodplains but also

  14. Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee C. Cadwallader

    2010-06-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

  15. Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee C. Cadwallader

    2007-08-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

  16. Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee C. Cadwallader

    2007-01-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with 'generic' component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance

  17. Computer-tomography and its use in failure analysis; Computertomographie und deren Anwendung in der Schadensanalytik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panzenboeck, Michael; Freitag, Caroline [Montanuniv. Leoben (Austria). Dept. Metallkunde und Werkstoffpruefung; Borchert, Marlies [Materials Center Leoben (Austria)

    2017-04-15

    In the last fifteen years computer-tomography has proven to be a valuable aid in the fields of medicine, materials technology and forensics. Nowadays it is hard to image non-destructive testing being carried out without its use. This article serves to demonstrate the power of the technique within the field of failure analysis with reference to two chosen case studies. The first case concerns the failure of magnetic valves, the second case focusses on the failure of corrosion resistant screws.

  18. Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.Yu. Polyak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.

  19. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  20. Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimis Vogiatzoglou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

  1. Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

    2010-01-01

    Reliability is widely recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems. In recent articles, we conducted nonparametric analyses and Weibull fits of satellite and satellite subsystems reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our investigation of failures of satellites and satellite subsystems beyond the binary concept of reliability to the analysis of their anomalies and multi-state failures. In reliability analysis, the system or subsystem under study is considered to be either in an operational or failed state; multi-state failure analysis introduces 'degraded states' or partial failures, and thus provides more insights through finer resolution into the degradation behavior of an item and its progression towards complete failure. The database used for the statistical analysis in the present work identifies five states for each satellite subsystem: three degraded states, one fully operational state, and one failed state (complete failure). Because our dataset is right-censored, we calculate the nonparametric probability of transitioning between states for each satellite subsystem with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and we derive confidence intervals for each probability of transitioning between states. We then conduct parametric Weibull fits of these probabilities using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. After validating the results, we compare the reliability versus multi-state failure analyses of three satellite subsystems: the thruster/fuel; the telemetry, tracking, and control (TTC); and the gyro/sensor/reaction wheel subsystems. The results are particularly revealing of the insights that can be gleaned from multi-state failure analysis and the deficiencies, or blind spots, of the traditional reliability analysis. In addition to the specific results provided here, which should prove particularly useful to the space industry, this work highlights the importance

  2. The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

    2010-01-01

    The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

  3. Laboratory and 3-D-distinct element analysis of failure mechanism of slope under external surcharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Cheng, Y. M.

    2014-09-01

    Landslide is a major disaster resulting in considerable loss of human lives and property damages in hilly terrain in Hong Kong, China and many other countries. The factor of safety and the critical slip surface for slope stabilization are the main considerations for slope stability analysis in the past, while the detailed post-failure conditions of the slopes have not been considered in sufficient details. There are however increasing interest on the consequences after the initiation of failure which includes the development and propagation of the failure surfaces, the amount of failed mass and runoff and the affected region. To assess the development of slope failure in more details and to consider the potential danger of slopes after failure has initiated, the slope stability problem under external surcharge is analyzed by the distinct element method (DEM) and laboratory model test in the present research. A more refined study about the development of failure, microcosmic failure mechanism and the post-failure mechanism of slope will be carried out. The numerical modeling method and the various findings from the present work can provide an alternate method of analysis of slope failure which can give additional information not available from the classical methods of analysis.

  4. Iron deficiency in chronic heart failure : An international pooled analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klip, IJsbrand T.; Comin-Colet, Josep; Voors, Adriaan A.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Enjuanes, Cristina; Banasiak, Waldemar; Lok, Dirk J.; Rosentryt, Piotr; Torrens, Ainhoa; Polonski, Lech; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; van der Meer, Peter; Jankowska, Ewa A.

    Background Iron deficiency (ID) is an emerging problem in patients with chronic heart failure (HF) and can be a potential therapeutic target. However, not much is known about the prevalence, predictors, and prognosis of ID in patients with chronic HF. Methods In an international pooled cohort

  5. Failure analysis of multiple delaminated composite plates due to ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    plates are assumed to contain both single and multiple delaminations. For the case of impact, ... delamination on the first ply failure of the laminate is scarce. ..... 1 in the bottom layer, it was of the opposite sign for the top layer. The plots for ...

  6. Crash Causation In Nigerian Roads – Failure Mode Analysis | Dike ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results of many researches on the causes of road traffic accidents have always resolved around three main factors, the human, environmental and vehicular factors. In this study, emphasis was placed on the vehicular factor in road traffic accident. It looked into detail on those vehicle components whose failures result in ...

  7. Analysis of soft rock mineral components and roadway failure mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈杰

    2001-01-01

    The mineral components and microstructure of soft rock sampled from roadway floor inXiagou pit are determined by X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscope. Ccmbined withthe test of expansion and water softening property of the soft rock, the roadway failure mechanism is analyzed, and the reasonable repair supporting principle of roadway is put forward.

  8. Analysis of fuel operational reliability and fuel failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smiesko, I.

    1999-01-01

    In this lecture the fuel failure (loss of fuel rod (cladding) integrity, corruption of second barrier for fission product release from duel and their consequences (increase of primary coolant activity; increase of fission product releases to environment; increase of rad-waste activities and potential increase of personnel exposure) are discussed

  9. First outline and baseline data of a randomized, controlled multicenter trial to evaluate the health economic impact of home telemonitoring in chronic heart failure - CardioBBEAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Reiner; Völler, Heinz; Nagels, Klaus; Bindl, Dominik; Vettorazzi, Eik; Dittmar, Ronny; Wohlgemuth, Walter; Neumann, Till; Störk, Stefan; Bruder, Oliver; Wegscheider, Karl; Nagel, Eckhard; Fleck, Eckart

    2015-08-11

    Evidence that home telemonitoring for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) offers clinical benefit over usual care is controversial as is evidence of a health economic advantage. Between January 2010 and June 2013, patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CHF were enrolled and randomly assigned to 2 study groups comprising usual care with and without an interactive bi-directional remote monitoring system (Motiva®). The primary endpoint in CardioBBEAT is the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) established by the groups' difference in total cost and in the combined clinical endpoint "days alive and not in hospital nor inpatient care per potential days in study" within the follow-up of 12 months. A total of 621 predominantly male patients were enrolled, whereof 302 patients were assigned to the intervention group and 319 to the control group. Ischemic cardiomyopathy was the leading cause of heart failure. Despite randomization, subjects of the control group were more often in NYHA functional class III-IV, and exhibited peripheral edema and renal dysfunction more often. Additionally, the control and intervention groups differed in heart rhythm disorders. No differences existed regarding risk factor profile, comorbidities, echocardiographic parameters, especially left ventricular and diastolic diameter and ejection fraction, as well as functional test results, medication and quality of life. While the observed baseline differences may well be a play of chance, they are of clinical relevance. Therefore, the statistical analysis plan was extended to include adjusted analyses with respect to the baseline imbalances. CardioBBEAT provides prospective outcome data on both, clinical and health economic impact of home telemonitoring in CHF. The study differs by the use of a high evidence level randomized controlled trial (RCT) design along with actual cost data obtained from health insurance companies. Its results are conducive to informed political and economic

  10. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  11. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, Han Myeong; Lee, Man Kee; Moon, Ki Hwan; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Seong Ki; Lee, Yeong Ki

    1993-12-01

    As CO 2 emission is recognized as the one of the major causes of the global worming, international CO 2 emission regulation has been of great concern and has been discussed actively on the global level. Several means of CO 2 emission regulation have been raised and have received much attention recently. CO 2 emission regulation is expected to affect the national economy as well as the national energy policy. Since the electricity sector closely interacts with CO 2 emission, environmental regulation has the possibility of implementation in this sector. Considering the enormous role played by electricity in the national economy, it is very important to study the effect of environmental regulation on the electricity sector. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of CO 2 emission by analyzing the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on the electricity sector in terms of capacity and generation mix. This information can be used effectively in energy policy establishment. In addition, the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on economic viability of electricity generating type is also being studied in order to contribute to the establishment of Electric System Expansion Planning in Korea

  13. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  14. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  15. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foutes, C.E.

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

  17. Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

  18. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  19. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  20. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Wind Turbine Systems in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jiangsheng; Ma, Kuichao; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses a cost based Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approch for the Wind Turbine (WT) with condition monitoring system in China. Normally, the traditional FMEA uses the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to rank failure modes. But the RPN can be changed with the Condition Monitoring...... Systems (CMS) due to change of the score of detection. The cost of failure mode should also be considered because faults can be detected at an incipient level, and condition-based maintenance can be scheduled. The results show that the proposed failure mode priorities considering their cost consequences...

  1. Failure analysis a practical guide for manufacturers of electronic components and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Bâzu, Marius

    2011-01-01

    Failure analysis is the preferred method to investigate product or process reliability and to ensure optimum performance of electrical components and systems. The physics-of-failure approach is the only internationally accepted solution for continuously improving the reliability of materials, devices and processes. The models have been developed from the physical and chemical phenomena that are responsible for degradation or failure of electronic components and materials and now replace popular distribution models for failure mechanisms such as Weibull or lognormal. Reliability engineers nee

  2. NDT in failure analysis - some case studies [Paper IIIA-g

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raj, Baldev; Bhattacharya, D.K.; Lopez, E.C.; Jayakumar, T.

    1986-01-01

    The effective uses of several non-destructive techniques in failure analysis are discussed. The techniques considered are: dye penetrant testing, radiography, ultrasonic testing, hardness measurement and in-situ metallography. A few failure cases are discussed to highlight the usefulness of the techniques. (author)

  3. Comprehensive Deployment Method for Technical Characteristics Base on Multi-failure Modes Correlation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, W.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, R. X.; Chen, K.; Jiang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    This paper put forward a new method of technical characteristics deployment based on Reliability Function Deployment (RFD) by analysing the advantages and shortages of related research works on mechanical reliability design. The matrix decomposition structure of RFD was used to describe the correlative relation between failure mechanisms, soft failures and hard failures. By considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the reliability loss of one failure mode to the whole part was defined, and a calculation and analysis model for reliability loss was presented. According to the reliability loss, the reliability index value of the whole part was allocated to each failure mode. On the basis of the deployment of reliability index value, the inverse reliability method was employed to acquire the values of technology characteristics. The feasibility and validity of proposed method were illustrated by a development case of machining centre’s transmission system.

  4. Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

    2017-07-01

    In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

  5. Reprioritization of failures in a system failure mode and effects analysis by decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seyed-Hosseini, S.M.; Safaei, N.; Asgharpour, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper an effective methodology related to decision making field has been developed for reprioritization of failure modes in a system Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for corrective actions. The proposed methodology can cover some of inherently shortcomings of conventional Risk Priority Number (RPN) method and like. The current prioritization methods have two main deficiencies as: they have not considered indirect relations between components and are deficient for systems with many subsystems or components. The proposed method called Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is an effective approach for analyzing relation between components of a system in respect to its type (direct/indirect) and severity. The main advantages of DEMATEL are involving indirect relations in analyze, allocating as possible as unique ranks to alternatives and clustering alternatives in large systems. The demonstrated results have shown that DEMATEL method can be an efficient, complementary and confident approach for reprioritization of failure modes in a FMEA. For verification of proposed methodology, two illustrative practical examples are solved and obtained outcomes are reported

  6. Economic analysis of radiodiagnostic equipment use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kochetova, G.P.; Turaev, R.N.

    1984-01-01

    The method for calculating costs for performing radiotdiagnostic investigation is suggested, analysis of structure of these costs and their dependence on output and working in shifts is given. As example the calculation of costs for performing radiodiagnostic investigations on gamma cameras with a computer and without it and on a scanner using fabricated radiopharmaceuticals and short-lived radionuclides. The developed technique for costs calculation for radiodignostic investigation permits to determine the cost of performing any investigation in changing values of any cost components. The analysis of the cost stucture for the investigation and dependence on apparatus capacity permit to contemplate the methods of reducing costs and raising apparatus use efficiency. One of these methods is transition to double-shift work of scintigraphic rooms equipped in the first place by gamma-cameras with computers

  7. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be

  8. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  9. Summary of failure analysis activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowgill, M.G.; Czajkowski, C.J.; Franz, E.M.

    1996-10-01

    Brookhaven National Laboratory has for many years conducted examinations related to the failures of nuclear materials and components. These examinations included the confirmation of root cause analyses, the determination of the causes of failure, identification of the species that accelerate corrosion, and comparison of the results of nondestructive examinations with those obtained by destructive examination. The results of those examinations, which had previously appeared in various formats (formal and informal reports, journal articles, etc.), have been collected together and summarized in the present report. The report is divided into sections according to the general subject matter (for example, corrosion, fatigue, etc.). Each section presents summaries of the information contained in specific reports and publications, all of which are fully identified as to title, authors, report number or journal reference, date of publication, and FIN number under which the work was performed

  10. Experimental and theoretical analysis of shear wall failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gantenbein, F.; Queval, J.C.; Dalbera, J.

    1993-01-01

    Thirteen walls with and without openings have been tested under seismic loading up to collapse and the test results have already been reported. A global model has been developed for the description of the hysteretic behaviour; it is based on the use of secant stiffness up to the steel yielding and on a slip model after yielding. Applications of this model to the walls with and without openings will be shown and the calculated top displacement will be compared with the measured one. The input load level leading to the failure is calculated with this non-linear model and the results are compared with the experimental values. The safety margin, which is defined as the ratio of the experimental load level leading to the failure to that obtained by linear calculation, will be given as a function of the mean excitation frequency

  11. Detecting failure events in buildings: a numerical and experimental analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Heckman, V. M.; Kohler, M. D.; Heaton, T. H.

    2010-01-01

    A numerical method is used to investigate an approach for detecting the brittle fracture of welds associated with beam -column connections in instrumented buildings in real time through the use of time-reversed Green’s functions and wave propagation reciprocity. The approach makes use of a prerecorded catalog of Green’s functions for an instrumented building to detect failure events in the building during a later seismic event by screening continuous data for the presence of wavef...

  12. Failure analysis of a barrel exposed to high temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usman, A.; Salam, I.; Rizvi, S.A.; Qasir, S.

    2005-01-01

    The paper deals with the study of a tank gun barrel which had failed after firing only a few rounds. The failure was in the form of bulging at the muzzle end (ME). The material of the barrel was characterized using different techniques including chemical and mechanical testing, optical microscopy and electron microscopy. Study disclosed that the barrel was subjected to excessively high temperature that resulted in its softening and consequent bulging under high pressure of the round. (author)

  13. Analysis for the cause of the condensate pump bearing failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Yiyan

    2012-01-01

    This paper discussed the influence of the foreign matters for the rolling bearing's service life, analyzed the reason, way and harm of soft foreign matters disabling the bearings. And some measures were brought forward to improve the maintenance quality, which could be used for reference to enhance the ability of estimating the failure of the motor's rolling bearings, and to improve the level of the maintenance work. (author)

  14. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  15. Analysis Of Economic Motivation When Individuals Choose An Educational Path

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Anatolyevich Koksharov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital.

  16. Economic Sanctions of the West and Russian Anti-sanctions: Success or a Failure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rustem M. Nureev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the work is the analysis of the consequences for Russian economy from the imposition of sanctions by Western countries. The paper discusses issues related to the effectiveness of the sanctions on South Africa, Iraq, and Haiti; the work presents the consequences of imposition of sanctions for Russian economy as a whole, as well as highlight the impact of the introduction of anti-Russian and Russian sanctions on two sectors: banking and food industry. The first was chosen because it is an indicator of what is happening in the economy since a funding stream from the west has been blocked. As for the food industry - it is expected that the introduction of the embargo of the product will allow Russian companies to realize their potential and lead to the development of this sector. The imposition of sanctions, the fall of the ruble, as well as the decline in oil prices had a negative impact on Russian economy and the continuation of the current situation can greatly slow down its development in the future. According to our analysis we can draw the following conclusions: the banking sector came under several attacks at once (the prohibition of monetary financing from the west, the growth of past due accounts, the policy of the Central Bank. The food sector has potential for growth, but there is a lack of clear boundaries for the period of sanctions (which does not allow companies to invest in the development of food industry considerable sums, and declining purchasing power due to a significant increase in inflation for the past 2 years. The imposition of sanctions, the fall of the ruble, as well as the decline in oil prices had a negative impact on the Russian economy and the preservation of the current situation in the international arena can greatly slow down its development in the future.

  17. Endochronic theory for inelasticity and failure analysis of concrete structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bazant, Z.P.; Bhat, P.D.; Shieh, C.L.

    1976-12-01

    A gradual accumulation of inelastic strain can be most conveniently described in terms of the so-called intrinsic time, whose increment depends on the time increment as well as the strain increments. This approach, which gives a particularly simple description of irreversibility of strain at unloading and cyclic loading, was previously developed for metals and is extended herein to concrete by introducing the hydrostatic pressure sensitivity of inelastic strain, the inelastic dilatancy produced by deviator strains, and the strain-softening tendency at high stress. Failure envelopes are obtained as a collection of the peaks of stress-strain diagrams. By comparison with experimental data from the literature, it is demonstrated that the proposed model predicts quite closely: stress-strain diagrams for concretes of different strength; uniaxial, biaxial and triaxial stress-strain diagrams and failure envelopes; failure envelopes for combined torsion and compression, lateral strains and volume expansion in uniaxial and biaxial tests; the behavior of spirally confined concrete; hysteresis loops or repeated high compression; cyclic creep up to 10/sup 6/ cycles; the strain rate effect; the decrease of long time strength; and the increase of short-time strength due to low stress creep.

  18. Endochronic theory for inelasticity and failure analysis of concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazant, Z.P.; Bhat, P.D.; Shieh, C.L.

    1976-12-01

    A gradual accumulation of inelastic strain can be most conveniently described in terms of the so-called intrinsic time, whose increment depends on the time increment as well as the strain increments. This approach, which gives a particularly simple description of irreversibility of strain at unloading and cyclic loading, was previously developed for metals and is extended herein to concrete by introducing the hydrostatic pressure sensitivity of inelastic strain, the inelastic dilatancy produced by deviator strains, and the strain-softening tendency at high stress. Failure envelopes are obtained as a collection of the peaks of stress-strain diagrams. By comparison with experimental data from the literature, it is demonstrated that the proposed model predicts quite closely: stress-strain diagrams for concretes of different strength; uniaxial, biaxial and triaxial stress-strain diagrams and failure envelopes; failure envelopes for combined torsion and compression, lateral strains and volume expansion in uniaxial and biaxial tests; the behavior of spirally confined concrete; hysteresis loops or repeated high compression; cyclic creep up to 10 6 cycles; the strain rate effect; the decrease of long time strength; and the increase of short-time strength due to low stress creep

  19. S Tank Farm SL-119 saltwell piping failure analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlos, W.C.

    1994-01-01

    On January 24, 1992, while pressure testing saltwell line SL-119 in the 241-S Tank Farm, water was observed spraying out of heat trace enclosure. The SL-115, SL-116, SN-215, and SN-216 saltwell lines also recently failed pressure testing because of leaks. This study documents the pertinent facts about the SL-119 line and discusses the cause of the failures. The inspection of the SL-119 failure revealed two through-the-wall holes in the top center of the pipeline. The inspection also strongly suggests that the heat tracing system is directly responsible for causing the SL-119 failure. Poor design of the heat tracing system allowed water to enter, condense, and collect in the electric metallic tubing (EMT) carbon steel conduits. Water flowed to the bottom of the elbow of the conduit and corroded out the elbow. The design also allowed drifting desert sand to enter into the conduit and fall to the bottom (elbow) of the conduit. The sand became wet and aided in the corrosion of the elbow of the conduit. After the EMT conduits corroded though, the water dripped from the corroded ends of the EMT conduits onto the top of the saltwell pipe, corroding the two holes into the top of the line. If the heat tracing hot splice box had not allowed moisture to enter the EMT conduits, the saltwell piping would not have corroded and caused SL-119 to fail

  20. Failure analysis of motor bearing of sea water pump in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bian Chunhua; Zhang Wei

    2015-01-01

    The motor bearing of sea water pump in Qinshan Phase II Nuclear Power plant broke after only one year's using. This paper introduces failure analysis process of the motor bearing. Chemical composition analysis, metallic phase analysis, micrographic examination, and hardness analysis, dimension analysis of each part of the bearing, as well as the high temperature and low temperature performance analysis of lubricating grease are performed. According to the analysis above mentioned, the failure mode of the bearing is wearing, and the reason of wearing is inappropriate installation of the bearing. (authors)

  1. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faggini, Marisa

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  2. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, B.S.; Srinivasan, P.V.; Parikh, K.S.; Parikh, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  3. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  4. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...

  5. Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Alfredo Gil

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued by the avoided cost method. The results of the study establish that GT have better commercial and economic performance than CT, and that the inclusion of environmental benefit significantly improves the results.

  6. Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.

  7. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

    1996-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

  8. Economic analysis of fusion breeders. Supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    Three fusion/fission hybrids and three converter reactors were considered in combination: (1) Li-Be (Opt-Li) blanket, (2) molten salt blanket (1.6 blanket energy multiplier), and (3) molten salt blanket (2.5 blanket energy multiplier). The following converter (fission) reactors were considered: (1) LWR, (2) HTGR, and (3) molten salt. In order to provide some perspective on the results of the hybrid analysis, LMFBRs were also examined: (1) methods applied consistently, and (2) range of LMFBR costs consistent with current thought on advanced designs

  9. Financial liberalization and economic growth : A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bumann, Silke; Hermes, Niels; Lensink, Robert

    This study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth by conducting a meta-analysis, based on 441 t-statistics reported in 60 empirical studies. We focus on explaining the heterogeneity of results in our sample

  10. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...

  11. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foutes, C.E.; Queenan, C.J. III

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  12. Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

  13. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    2016-01-01

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data in the presence of informative censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peijie; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo

    2016-12-01

    Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields such as demography, economics, medical research, and reliability and many inference procedures on them have been developed (Sun, 2006; Chen, Sun, and Peace, 2012). However, most of the existing approaches assume that the mechanism that yields interval censoring is independent of the failure time of interest and it is clear that this may not be true in practice (Zhang et al., 2007; Ma, Hu, and Sun, 2015). In this article, we consider regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data when the censoring mechanism may be related to the failure time of interest. For the problem, an estimated sieve maximum-likelihood approach is proposed for the data arising from the proportional hazards frailty model and for estimation, a two-step procedure is presented. In the addition, the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators of regression parameters are established and an extensive simulation study suggests that the method works well. Finally, we apply the method to a set of real interval-censored data that motivated this study. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  15. The Economic Risks Arising from the Analysis of the Balance Sheet of an Economic Entity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Mihaela Marin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Any economic entity operates under probability and risk. In a general acceptation, risk means the validity of the result obtained under pressure of the economic environment; in other words, the risk is the potential damage posed to heritage, interests and affect the entity. In this paper we want to capture, the calculation in terms of the balance sheet analysis of the three risks, which can be measured on the basis of the balance sheet data and indicators, namely: the operational risk, financial risk, and the risk of bankruptcy.

  16. Evaluation and Analysis of Frequency of Transformer Failures ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. The frequency of failed distribution transformers in Power Holding Company of Nigeria Plc, Akpakpava Business Unit network, Benin City, for a period of two years have been investigated in this work. The frequent power outages recorded in our communities resulting in customers dissatisfactions, economic losses, ...

  17. Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kančev, Duško, E-mail: dusko.kancev@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwetnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

    2014-07-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

  18. Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kančev, Duško; Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit; Maqua, Michael; Wattrelos, Didier

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

  19. Approach of a failure analysis for the MYRRHA linac

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carneiro, J.P.; Medeiros-Romao, L.; Salemne, R.; Vandeplassche, D.; Biarotte, J.L.; Bouly, F.; Uriot, D.

    2015-01-01

    The MYRRHA project currently under development at SCK-CEN (Mol, Belgium) is a subcritical research reactor that requires a 600 MeV proton accelerator as a driver. This linac is expected to produce a beam power of 1.5 MW onto a spallation target for the reactor to deliver a thermal power around 70 MW. Thermomechanical considerations of the spallation target set stringent requirements on the beam trip rate which should not exceed 40 trips/year for interruptions longer than three seconds. The 3 underlying principles in the design of the MYRRHA linac are elements redundancy (like the dual-injector), elements operation at de-rated values (like cavities operating at about 30% from their nominal operating points) and the fault tolerance concept, which allows the failure of a beamline component to be compensated by its neighbouring elements. Studies presented in this document show that in the event of a failure of the first cryo-module or the first quadrupole doublet the linac can resume nominal operation with a re-matched lattice. Since the fault tolerance procedure is expected to work more efficiently at higher energies (due to lower space charge effects) we can extrapolate from our studies that the MYRRHA linac is expected to operate with the failure of any cryo-module or quadrupole doublet in the main linac. A virtual accelerator-based control system is mandatory for the operation of the MYRRHA linac to ensure the very fast implementation (<3 seconds) of the fault tolerance procedure. The virtual accelerator uses a beam dynamics code (like TRACEWIN or TRACK) to compute the model of the real accelerator in operation and interacts with this later through the accelerator control command

  20. Coupled Mechanical-Electrochemical-Thermal Analysis of Failure Propagation in Lithium-ion Batteries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Chao; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Pesaran, Ahmad

    2016-07-28

    This is a presentation given at the 12th World Congress for Computational Mechanics on coupled mechanical-electrochemical-thermal analysis of failure propagation in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles.

  1. Failure cause analysis and improvement for magnetic component cabinet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Bing

    1999-01-01

    The magnetic component cabinet is an important thermal control device fitted on the nuclear power. Because it used a self-saturation amplifier as a primary component, the magnetic component cabinet has some boundness. For increasing the operation safety on the nuclear power, the author describes a new scheme. In order that the magnetic component cabinet can be replaced, the new type component cabinet is developed. Integrate circuit will replace the magnetic components of every function parts. The author has analyzed overall failure cause for magnetic component cabinet and adopted some measures

  2. Patterns of Failure After MammoSite Brachytherapy Partial Breast Irradiation: A Detailed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Sea; Dickler, Adam; Kirk, Michael; Shah, Anand; Jokich, Peter; Solmos, Gene; Strauss, Jonathan; Dowlatshahi, Kambiz; Nguyen, Cam; Griem, Katherine

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To report the results of a detailed analysis of treatment failures after MammoSite breast brachytherapy for partial breast irradiation from our single-institution experience. Methods and Materials: Between October 14, 2002 and October 23, 2006, 78 patients with early-stage breast cancer were treated with breast-conserving surgery and accelerated partial breast irradiation using the MammoSite brachytherapy applicator. We identified five treatment failures in the 70 patients with >6 months' follow-up. Pathologic data, breast imaging, and radiation treatment plans were reviewed. For in-breast failures more than 2 cm away from the original surgical bed, the doses delivered to the areas of recurrence by partial breast irradiation were calculated. Results: At a median follow-up time of 26.1 months, five treatment failures were identified. There were three in-breast failures more than 2 cm away from the original surgical bed, one failure directly adjacent to the original surgical bed, and one failure in the axilla with synchronous distant metastases. The crude failure rate was 7.1% (5 of 70), and the crude local failure rate was 5.7% (4 of 70). Estimated progression-free survival at 48 months was 89.8% (standard error 4.5%). Conclusions: Our case series of 70 patients with >6 months' follow-up and a median follow-up of 26 months is the largest single-institution report to date with detailed failure analysis associated with MammoSite brachytherapy. Our failure data emphasize the importance of patient selection when offering partial breast irradiation

  3. The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Camelia SURUGIU

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.

  4. Economic evaluation of valsartan in patients with chronic heart failure : results from Val-HeFT adapted to the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, C.; Radeva, J.; Koopmanschap, M.; Voors, A.; Postma, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Valsartan Heart Failure Trial (Val-HeFT) was a multinational randomised trial of valsartan versus placebo in a total of 5,010 patients with heart failure. During the study period, valsartan resulted in significant reductions in hospitalisations due to heart failure. The objective of this study

  5. Fatigue failure analysis of V-4Ti-4Cr alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aglan, H.; Gan, Y.X.; Grossbeck, M.

    1999-01-01

    In the present work, the fatigue fracture and failure behavior of a V-4Ti-4Cr has been studied. Static tests were conducted to study the overloading behavior and to select the magnitude of the stress level for the fatigue studies. Fatigue tests were performed using single edge notched (SEN) specimens under tension-tension load control conditions. Fatigue crack propagation (FCP) data such as the crack length, number of cycles, and hysteresis loops were recorded to calculate the crack speed, the energy release rate, and the change in work expended on damage formation and dissipative processes within the material. Parameters characterizing the fatigue fracture resistance of V-4Ti-4Cr alloy, namely the specific energy of damage (γ'), and the dissipative coefficient (β'), were determined from the fatigue data using the modified crack layer (MCL) theory. Fracture surface examination using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed ductile failure mechanisms under tensile overloading conditions. The fatigue fracture surface of the V-4Ti-4Cr consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the threshold, stable and unstable crack propagation stages. (orig.)

  6. Analysis of Reactor Vessel Lower Head Penetration Tube Failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stempniewicz, Marek

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents results of two studies, performed to investigate the behavior of the reactor vessel penetration tubes in case of relocation of molten material into the tubes. The first study is on the CORVIS drain line experiment 03/1. Results of pre-test calculations are presented, and compared to the later obtained experimental data. The timing of the drain line melting and the velocity of the debris flowing inside the drain line were predicted correctly, but the penetration depth was clearly underestimated. If the calculations are done using different correlation for the melt-to-wall convective heat transfer, the results are closer to the experiment. It cannot however be concluded that the alternative correlation is more appropriate until other uncertainties are clarified. The second study presents calculations performed for GKN Dodewaard CRD, instrument tubes and drain line. Calculations were performed to estimate whether the tubes have a chance to withstand the first attack of the melt and thus postpone vessel failure until the water in the lower plenum evaporates. Calculations were performed assuming that the melt can move into the tubes without any resistance, e.g. presence of water in the tubes was not taken into account. The results indicate that the critical penetration of the GKN vessel, which is most likely to fail, is the drain line. Results also indicate that external flooding should prevent early tube failure, at least in case of low vessel pressure. (author)

  7. Using the failure mode and effects analysis model to improve parathyroid hormone and adrenocorticotropic hormone testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnezi R

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Racheli Magnezi,1 Asaf Hemi,1 Rina Hemi2 1Department of Management, Public Health and Health Systems Management Program, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, 2Endocrine Service Unit, Sheba Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel Background: Risk management in health care systems applies to all hospital employees and directors as they deal with human life and emergency routines. There is a constant need to decrease risk and increase patient safety in the hospital environment. The purpose of this article is to review the laboratory testing procedures for parathyroid hormone and adrenocorticotropic hormone (which are characterized by short half-lives and to track failure modes and risks, and offer solutions to prevent them. During a routine quality improvement review at the Endocrine Laboratory in Tel Hashomer Hospital, we discovered these tests are frequently repeated unnecessarily due to multiple failures. The repetition of the tests inconveniences patients and leads to extra work for the laboratory and logistics personnel as well as the nurses and doctors who have to perform many tasks with limited resources.Methods: A team of eight staff members accompanied by the Head of the Endocrine Laboratory formed the team for analysis. The failure mode and effects analysis model (FMEA was used to analyze the laboratory testing procedure and was designed to simplify the process steps and indicate and rank possible failures.Results: A total of 23 failure modes were found within the process, 19 of which were ranked by level of severity. The FMEA model prioritizes failures by their risk priority number (RPN. For example, the most serious failure was the delay after the samples were collected from the department (RPN =226.1.Conclusion: This model helped us to visualize the process in a simple way. After analyzing the information, solutions were proposed to prevent failures, and a method to completely avoid the top four problems was also developed. Keywords: failure mode

  8. Integrated environmental policy: A review of economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeth, Hans; Häckl, Dennis

    2017-04-01

    Holistic environmental policies, which emerged from a mere combination of technical activities in waste management some 40 years ago, constitute the most advanced level of environmental policies. These approaches to environmental policy, among them the policies in integrated waste management, attempt to guide economic agents to an environment-friendly behaviour. Nevertheless, current holistic policies in waste management, including policies on one-way drinks containers and waste electrical and electronic equipment, and implementations of extended producer responsibility with further applications to waste electrical and electronic equipment, reveal more or less severe deficiencies - despite some positive examples. This article relates these policy failures, which are not necessarily the result of an insufficient compliance with the regulations, to missing constitutive elements of what is going to be called an 'integrated environmental policy'. This article therefore investigates - mostly from a practical point of view - constitutive elements, which are necessary for a holistic policy to serve as a well-functioning allocation mechanism. As these constitutive elements result from a careful 'integration' of the environmental commodities into the economic allocation problems, we refer to these policies as 'integrated environmental policies'. The article also discusses and illustrates the main steps of designing such a policy - for waste electrical and electronic equipment and a (possible) ban of Glyphosat in agriculture. As these policies are dependent on economic and political stability with environmental awareness sufficiently developed, the article addresses mostly waste management policies in highly industrialised countries.

  9. Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Mu-Young; Cho, Seungyon; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won; Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

  10. Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Mu-Young, E-mail: myahn74@nfri.re.kr [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

  11. Failure Analysis of 600 MW Supercritical Boiler Water Wall

    OpenAIRE

    Fu Huilin; Cai Zhengchun; Yan Xiaozhong; He Jinqiao; Zhou Yucai

    2013-01-01

    Boiler tube often causes abnormal boiler outage, bringing greater economic losses. This thesis mainly comes from the dynamics of boiler water, boiler furnace accident location of wall temperature distribution to explore the cause of the accident boiler. Calculation results show that the deformation will seriously reduce the boiler allowable maximum temperature difference between the screens. And the boiler is not over-temperature, low temperature difference between the screens, which have bur...

  12. Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray

    2014-01-01

    The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs.

  13. Economic effectiveness of disease management programs: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, David S

    2005-04-01

    The economic effectiveness of disease management programs, which are designed to improve the clinical and economic outcomes for chronically ill individuals, has been evaluated extensively. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE and other published sources for the period covering January 1995 to September 2003. The search was limited to empirical articles that measured the direct economic outcomes for asthma, diabetes, and heart disease management programs. Of the 360 articles and presentations evaluated, only 67 met the selection criteria for meta-analysis, which included 32,041 subjects. Although some studies contained multiple measurements of direct economic outcomes, only one average effect size per study was included in the meta-analysis. Based on the studies included in the research, a meta-analysis provided a statistically significant answer to the question of whether disease management programs are economically effective. The magnitude of the observed average effect size for equally weighted studies was 0.311 (95% CI = 0.272-0.350). Statistically significant differences of effect sizes by study design, disease type and intensity of disease management program interventions were not found after a moderating variable, disease severity, was taken into consideration. The results suggest that disease management programs are more effective economically with severely ill enrollees and that chronic disease program interventions are most effective when coordinated with the overall level of disease severity. The findings can be generalized, which may assist health care policy makers and practitioners in addressing the issue of providing economically effective care for the growing number of individuals with chronic illness.

  14. An analysis of human maintenance failures of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.

    2000-01-01

    In the report, a study of faults caused by maintenance activities is presented. The objective of the study was to draw conclusions on the unplanned effects of maintenance on nuclear power plant safety and system availability. More than 4400 maintenance history reports from the years 1992-1994 of Olkiluoto BWR nuclear power plant (NPP) were analysed together with the maintenance personnel. The human action induced faults were classified, e.g., according to their multiplicity and effects. This paper presents and discusses the results of a statistical analysis of the data. Instrumentation and electrical components appeared to be especially prone to human failures. Many human failures were found in safety related systems. Several failures also remained latent from outages to power operation. However, the safety significance of failures was generally small. Modifications were an important source of multiple human failures. Plant maintenance data is a good source of human reliability data and it should be used more in the future. (orig.)

  15. Comparison of stress-based and strain-based creep failure criteria for severe accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez, S.A.; Kelly, D.L.; Witt, R.J.; Stirn, D.P.

    1995-01-01

    We conducted a parametic analysis of stress-based and strain-based creep failure criteria to determine if there is a significant difference between the two criteria for SA533B vessel steel under severe accident conditions. Parametric variables include debris composition, system pressure, and creep strain histories derived from different testing programs and mathematically fit, with and without tertiary creep. Results indicate significant differences between the two criteria. Stress gradient plays an important role in determining which criterion will predict failure first. Creep failure was not very sensitive to different creep strain histories, except near the transition temperature of the vessel steel (900K to 1000K). Statistical analyses of creep failure data of four independent sources indicate that these data may be pooled, with a spline point at 1000K. We found the Manson-Haferd parameter to have better failure predictive capability than the Larson-Miller parameter for the data studied. (orig.)

  16. Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Challinor, Andrew J [Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Simelton, Elisabeth S; Fraser, Evan D G [Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Hemming, Debbie; Collins, Mathew, E-mail: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk [Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-15

    Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty and adaptation, using spring wheat in Northeast China as a case study. A parallel 'vulnerability index' approach uses quantitative socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. The simulations show crop failure rates increasing under climate change, due to increasing extremes of both heat and water stress. Crop failure rates increase with mean temperature, with increases in maximum failure rates being greater than those in median failure rates. The results suggest that significant adaptation is possible through either socio-economic measures such as greater investment, or biophysical measures such as drought or heat tolerance in crops. The results also show that adaptation becomes increasingly necessitated as mean temperature and the associated number of extremes rise. The results, and the limitations of this study, also suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

  17. Physics of failure based analysis of aluminium electrolytic capacitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satya Ranjan; Behera, S.K.; Kumar, Sachin; Varde, P.V.; Ravi Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are one of the important devices in various power electronic systems, such as motor drives, uninterruptible power supply, electric vehicles and dc power supply. Electrolytic capacitors are also the integral part of many other electronic devices. One of the primary function of electrolytic capacitors is the smoothing of voltage ripple and storing electrical energy. However, the electrolytic capacitor has the shortest lifespan of components in power electronics. Past experiences show that electrolytic capacitor tends to degrade and fail faster under high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. The primary failure mechanism of an electrolytic capacitor is the evaporation of the electrolyte due to electrical or thermal overstress. This leads to the drift in the values of two important parameters-capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR) of the electrolytic capacitor. An attempt has been made to age the electrolytic capacitor and validate the results. The overall goal is to derive the accurate degradation model of the electrolytic capacitor. (author)

  18. IMPACT STRENGTH AND FAILURE ANALYSIS OF WELDED DAMASCUS STEEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rastislav Mintách

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was the experimental research of damascus steel from point of view of the structural analyze, impact strength and failure analyzes. The damascus steel was produced by method of forged welding from STN 41 4260 spring steel and STN 41 9312 tool steel. The damascus steel consisted of both 84 and 168 layers. The impact strength was experimentally determined for original steels and damascus steels after heat treatment in dependence on temperature in the range from -60 to 160 °C. It has been found that the impact strength of experimental steels decreased with decreasing temperature behind with correlated change of damage mode. In the case of experimental tests performed at high temperature ductile fracture was revealed and with decreasing temperature proportion of cleavage facets increased. Only the STN 41 9312 steel did not show considerable difference in values of the impact strength with changing temperature.

  19. Development of contact failure analysis technology - first year(2000) report -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyung Kyu; Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Song, Kee Nam

    2001-01-01

    Contact tractions are affected by the geometry of contacting bodies. In the present research, square punch, wedge and cylinders are considered as the geometry. Among the geometry, a square punch with rounded corners is basically used. Normal traction profile is obtained in the case of the rounded punch, and shear tractions are evaluated under the partial slip regime by using the influence function method. Multiplication of the shear traction and slip displacement in the slip region of the contact provides the friction energy dissipation from the contact. Since the trace of the shear force influences the amount of the dissipated energy, a desirable trace of the shear force may be supposed to reduce the energy dissipation. Internal stresses are evaluated from the contact normal and shear tractions, which are to be used for calculating the stress intensity factors of a surface breaking crack emanated from the contact surface. The stress intensity factors, K{sub I} and K{sub II}, are investigated during the cyclic shear. It is found that a period of crack opening exists during a shear cycle, which is effective for crack growing. So, to reduce the period can be a method for restraining the cracking failure. On the other hand, there can exist a desirable shape of the contacting body, which can restrain the cracking failure. In the experiment, fretting wear tester is used with the specially designed specimen. Wear of the contact surface are observed in detail, which shows typical shape following the partial and gross slip regimes. An algorithm for evaluating the wear volume is newly developed using the signal processing technique and the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)

  20. Development of contact failure analysis technology - first year(2000) report -

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyung Kyu; Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Song, Kee Nam

    2001-01-01

    Contact tractions are affected by the geometry of contacting bodies. In the present research, square punch, wedge and cylinders are considered as the geometry. Among the geometry, a square punch with rounded corners is basically used. Normal traction profile is obtained in the case of the rounded punch, and shear tractions are evaluated under the partial slip regime by using the influence function method. Multiplication of the shear traction and slip displacement in the slip region of the contact provides the friction energy dissipation from the contact. Since the trace of the shear force influences the amount of the dissipated energy, a desirable trace of the shear force may be supposed to reduce the energy dissipation. Internal stresses are evaluated from the contact normal and shear tractions, which are to be used for calculating the stress intensity factors of a surface breaking crack emanated from the contact surface. The stress intensity factors, K I and K II , are investigated during the cyclic shear. It is found that a period of crack opening exists during a shear cycle, which is effective for crack growing. So, to reduce the period can be a method for restraining the cracking failure. On the other hand, there can exist a desirable shape of the contacting body, which can restrain the cracking failure. In the experiment, fretting wear tester is used with the specially designed specimen. Wear of the contact surface are observed in detail, which shows typical shape following the partial and gross slip regimes. An algorithm for evaluating the wear volume is newly developed using the signal processing technique and the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)

  1. A quantitative impact analysis of sensor failures on human operator's decision making in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    In emergency or accident situations in nuclear power plants, human operators take important roles in generating appropriate control signals to mitigate accident situation. In human reliability analysis (HRA) in the framework of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the failure probabilities of such appropriate actions are estimated and used for the safety analysis of nuclear power plants. Even though understanding the status of the plant is basically the process of information seeking and processing by human operators, it seems that conventional HRA methods such as THERP, HCR, and ASEP does not pay a lot of attention to the possibilities of providing wrong information to human operators. In this paper, a quantitative impact analysis of providing wrong information to human operators due to instrument faults or sensor failures is performed. The quantitative impact analysis is performed based on a quantitative situation assessment model. By comparing the situation in which there are sensor failures and the situation in which there are not sensor failures, the impact of sensor failures can be evaluated quantitatively. It is concluded that the impact of sensor failures are quite significant at the initial stages, but the impact is gradually reduced as human operators make more and more observations. Even though the impact analysis is highly dependent on the situation assessment model, it is expected that the conclusions made based on other situation assessment models with be consistent with the conclusion made in this paper. (author)

  2. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Khateeb, M.A.; El-Hayawan, H.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  3. Economic analysis of needs the training of human resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buha Vesna V.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of lifelong learning is linked to the voluntary and motivated to seek knowledge from personal or organizational reasons. The fact that an individual learns driven by personal career goals, desire for self improvement and motivation refers to the importance of lifelong learning for the entire social inclusion, sustainability, and competitiveness and employment. The common denominator of all the problems of investment in education is an issue of increasing allocations to the social issues, the pace that in this area manifest needs. Relative resource constraints requires that the investment in professional development taking place in accordance with the expected contribution to the creation of new value, increase productivity and social development of society as a whole. Respecting this request, in general, should provide maximum socio-economic effects with minimal investment. Precise measurement is achieved by tools of economic analysis: cost & benefit, economic sensitivity analysis, risk assessment.

  4. Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkhateeb, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

  5. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Khateeb, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  6. [Hazard function and life table: an introduction to the failure time analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushita, K; Inaba, H

    1987-04-01

    Failure time analysis has become popular in demographic studies. It can be viewed as a part of regression analysis with limited dependent variables as well as a special case of event history analysis and multistate demography. The idea of hazard function and failure time analysis, however, has not been properly introduced to nor commonly discussed by demographers in Japan. The concept of hazard function in comparison with life tables is briefly described, where the force of mortality is interchangeable with the hazard rate. The basic idea of failure time analysis is summarized for the cases of exponential distribution, normal distribution, and proportional hazard models. The multiple decrement life table is also introduced as an example of lifetime data analysis with cause-specific hazard rates.

  7. Application of multi attribute failure mode analysis of milk production using analytical hierarchy process method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucitra, A. L.

    2018-03-01

    Pusat Koperasi Induk Susu (PKIS) Sekar Tanjung, East Java is one of the modern dairy industries producing Ultra High Temperature (UHT) milk. A problem that often occurs in the production process in PKIS Sekar Tanjung is a mismatch between the production process and the predetermined standard. The purpose of applying Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was to identify the most potential cause of failure in the milk production process. Multi Attribute Failure Mode Analysis (MAFMA) method was used to eliminate or reduce the possibility of failure when viewed from the failure causes. This method integrates the severity, occurrence, detection, and expected cost criteria obtained from depth interview with the head of the production department as an expert. The AHP approach was used to formulate the priority ranking of the cause of failure in the milk production process. At level 1, the severity has the highest weight of 0.41 or 41% compared to other criteria. While at level 2, identifying failure in the UHT milk production process, the most potential cause was the average mixing temperature of more than 70 °C which was higher than the standard temperature (≤70 ° C). This failure cause has a contributes weight of 0.47 or 47% of all criteria Therefore, this study suggested the company to control the mixing temperature to minimise or eliminate the failure in this process.

  8. Random safety auditing, root cause analysis, failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursprung, Robert; Gray, James

    2010-03-01

    Improving quality and safety in health care is a major concern for health care providers, the general public, and policy makers. Errors and quality issues are leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the health care industry. There is evidence that patients in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are at high risk for serious medical errors. To facilitate compliance with safe practices, many institutions have established quality-assurance monitoring procedures. Three techniques that have been found useful in the health care setting are failure mode and effects analysis, root cause analysis, and random safety auditing. When used together, these techniques are effective tools for system analysis and redesign focused on providing safe delivery of care in the complex NICU system. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Parodi Trece

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.

  10. Analysis for Involvement of TPP Operating in Accordance with Heating Schedule to Passing Through Failures of Electric Load Schedules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Nazarov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes technical and economic evaluation of various methods pertaining to passing through failures of electric load at TPP which is operating in accordance with heating schedule.

  11. Fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis of a digital safety function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maskuniitty, M.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1995-01-01

    The principles of fault tree and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for the analysis of digital safety functions of nuclear power plants are discussed. Based on experiences from a case study, a proposal for a full scale analysis is presented. The feasibility and applicability the above mentioned reliability engineering methods are discussed. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  12. Probabilistic Analysis of Failures Mechanisms of Large Dams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shams Ghahfarokhi, G.

    2014-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is presently being performed in almost all fields of engineering depending upon the specific field and its particular area. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a central feature of hydraulic engineering structural design.

  13. Literature research of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hustak, S.

    1999-01-01

    The potential of the FMEA applications is demonstrated. Some approaches can be used for system analysis or immediately for PSA, in particular, for obtaining background information for fault tree analysis in the area of component modelling and, to a lesser extent, for identification of the initiating events. On the other hand, other FMEA applications, such as criticality analysis, are unusable in PSA. (author)

  14. Environmental/Economic Analysis and Recycling of Wastes from Air ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental and economic analysis was performed on the wastes from Air Liquid Nigeria Ltd. The company's waste water, spent oil, noise and air pollutants were examined. Results show no serious adverse impact on the ambient air quality. There was serious noise pollution problem around the factory hall and generator ...

  15. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

  16. Economic Analysis of Small Scale Egg Production in Gombe Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to determine the economic profitability of small-scale egg production in Gombe L.G.A. Gombe State. Data were collected from 36 famers using simple random sampling technique. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gross margin and farm financial ratio analysis. The study ...

  17. Fire in longleaf pine stand management: an economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney L. Busby; Donald G. Hodges

    1999-01-01

    A simulation analysis of the economics of using prescribed fire as a forest management tool in the management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations was conducted. A management regime using frequent prescribed fire was compared to management regimes involving fertilization and chemical release, chemical control, and mechanical control. Determining the...

  18. An Economic Analysis Of Corruption In Nigeria | Ben | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The bane of the Nigerian economy has been mainly corruption in all sectors. This work is an in depth analysis on the meaning, kinds, causes and the economic implications to the country. It x-rayed how various leaders past and present have contributed to the underdevelopment of the country through corruption and proffers ...

  19. Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wenum, van J.H.

    2002-01-01

    The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for

  20. Natural disasters and economic growth: A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klomp, J.G.; Valckx, K.

    2014-01-01

    Using more than 750 estimates, we perform a meta-regression analysis of studies examining the relationship between economic growth per capita and natural disasters. The studies considered are very different with respect to the type of disasters considered, the sample of countries and time periods