WorldWideScience

Sample records for factors including climate

  1. CLIMATE AS A RISK FACTOR FOR TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ÁKOS NÉMETH

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate risk factors for tourism are surveyed and illustrated with regard to the expected climate changes in Hungary. These changes are not at all advantageous and which affect the business in question both directly and indirectly. These are the summer resort tourism (characterised by bioclimatic indices. Green tourism is the next one to characterise, including skiing, mountain climbing and eco-tourism, as well. Here both day-to-day weather extremes and long-lasting effects on the biota (e.g. drought, or inundation for plain-area eco-tourism. Last, but not least the urban (cultural- and shopping- tourism is presented, since the large towns exhibit their special climate and different risks. The paper intends to specify these meteorological factors and effects also in terms of the different types of touristic activities. The general statements on the effect of weather and climate on tourism are illustrated by a few individual parameters and also by the so called Physiologically Equivalent Temperature. Annual and diurnal course of this parameter are presented, together with various trends in this variable at different sites and in different (hot and cold extremities of the occurring values. Other examples, helping the tourism industry are presented in various climate conditions of the country. They include high precipitation and high relative humidity information. The paper also lists the possible adaptation measures to extreme events and also their likely changes in time.

  2. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  3. Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W L; Li, Z H; Chen, H J; Wan, F H; Qu, W W; Zhang, Z; Kriticos, D J

    2012-04-01

    Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

  4. SCHOOL CLIMATE AND TEACHERS’ PERCEPTIONS ON CLIMATE FACTORS:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İlhan GÜNBAYI

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the difference in the levels of the variables related to the schoolclimate factors among the teachers teaching social science courses, the teachers teaching natural science courses,and the teachers teaching art, music and physical education. The data collected from a sample of 204 teachersfrom 9 urban schools serving general high school education in the centre of Afyon and Usak cities in Turkey bymeans of the questionnaire developed by the researcher in the academic year of 2001-2002. The questionnaireasked the participants to report the perceived school climate levels of the variables related to the organizationalclimate factors - organizational clarity and standards, team commitment, autonomy, intimacy and support,member conflict, rewards, and risk - on the open-to-closed continuum. The data collected were analyzed by t-testfor Equality of Means and Analysis of Variance and Tukey post hoc tests. As a result of the analyzes, all theteachers reported open climate in relation to the factors of team commitment, organizational clarity andstandards, intimacy and support , autonomy, member conflict, medium climate in relation to the factors of riskand in reward. Additionally, the teachers teaching art, music and physical education reported higher open schoolclimate than others, man than women, single teachers than married ones, the teachers with more degree ofeducation than the ones with a lower degree of education, older teachers than younger ones, and the teacherswith less seniority than the ones with more seniority. Finally, some ideas were suggested about what should bedone in helping teachers to work in a more desirable open school climate

  5. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  6. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  7. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with

  8. Risk Factors for Breast Cancer, Including Occupational Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Weiderpass

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge on the etiology of breast cancer has advanced substantially in recent years, and several etiological factors are now firmly established. However, very few new discoveries have been made in relation to occupational risk factors. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated over 900 different exposures or agents to-date to determine whether they are carcinogenic to humans. These evaluations are published as a series of Monographs (www.iarc.fr. For breast cancer the following substances have been classified as “carcinogenic to humans” (Group 1: alcoholic beverages, exposure to diethylstilbestrol, estrogen-progestogen contraceptives, estrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapy and exposure to X-radiation and gamma-radiation (in special populations such as atomic bomb survivors, medical patients, and in-utero exposure. Ethylene oxide is also classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, although the evidence for carcinogenicity in epidemiologic studies, and specifically for the human breast, is limited. The classification “probably carcinogenic to humans” (Group 2A includes estrogen hormone replacement therapy, tobacco smoking, and shift work involving circadian disruption, including work as a flight attendant. If the association between shift work and breast cancer, the most common female cancer, is confirmed, shift work could become the leading cause of occupational cancer in women.

  9. Risk factors for breast cancer, including occupational exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiderpass, Elisabete; Meo, Margrethe; Vainio, Harri

    2011-03-01

    The knowledge on the etiology of breast cancer has advanced substantially in recent years, and several etiological factors are now firmly established. However, very few new discoveries have been made in relation to occupational risk factors. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated over 900 different exposures or agents to-date to determine whether they are carcinogenic to humans. These evaluations are published as a series of Monographs (www.iarc.fr). For breast cancer the following substances have been classified as "carcinogenic to humans" (Group 1): alcoholic beverages, exposure to diethylstilbestrol, estrogen-progestogen contraceptives, estrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapy and exposure to X-radiation and gamma-radiation (in special populations such as atomic bomb survivors, medical patients, and in-utero exposure). Ethylene oxide is also classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, although the evidence for carcinogenicity in epidemiologic studies, and specifically for the human breast, is limited. The classification "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A) includes estrogen hormone replacement therapy, tobacco smoking, and shift work involving circadian disruption, including work as a flight attendant. If the association between shift work and breast cancer, the most common female cancer, is confirmed, shift work could become the leading cause of occupational cancer in women.

  10. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  11. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.

  12. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting......This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  13. Perinatal risk factors including malformation; Perinatale Risikofaktoren einschliesslich Fehlbildungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project `Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria` is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG). [Deutsch] In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein Ueberblick ueber die haeufigsten in der Literatur beschriebenen Faktoren, die einen unguenstigen Einfluss auf den Schwangerschaftsverlauf ausueben koennen, gegeben. Ein Hauptgewicht liegt dabei auf der Beschreibung von solchen Faktoren, die mit der Induktion von Fehlbildungen in Zusammenhang gebracht werden koennen, so unter anderem auch der praenatalen Strahlenexposition. Diese Arbeit, die im Rahmen des Forschungsvorhabens `Strahlenbiologisches Umweltmonitoring Bayern` angefertigt wurde, bildet die Grundlage einer im Sinne einer umweltbezogenen Gesundheitsberichterstattung retro- bzw. prospektiv angelegten Auswertung der Saeuglingssterblichkeit, des Perinatalgeschehens und der Fehlbildungshaeufigkeit in Bayern, wobei neben der ionisierenden Strahlung als Risikofaktor auch andere im Rahmen einer oekologischen Studie erfassbare Risiken, wie beispielsweise Industrieansiedlungen, Muellverbrennungsanlagen und -deponien oder Urbanitaet beruecksichtigt werden sollen. (orig./MG).

  14. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO......, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers....

  15. Association Between Himalayan Marmot Density and Climatic Factor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Rong-jie; WANG Hu; HE Jian; JIN Yong; ZHENG Yi; DAI Rui-xia; YANG Yong-hai; XIONG Hao-ming; TIAN Fu-zhang; WANG Zu-yun

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This study aims to explore the association between the density of Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) and climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, vapour pressure, sunshine percentage, wind velocity, which are closely associated with global climate change, and to provide a reference for plague prevention and control. Methods: We conducted a regression analysis to find the possible climate factors associated with the density of Himalaya marmot, and analyzed the response characters of Himalayan marmot to climate change. Results:Daily precipitation days (>=0.1 mm) and sunshine percentage were significantly associated with the density of Himalayan marmot ( p<0.01). Conclusion:Climate change was associated with the risk of plague. This phenomenon is valuable for Himalayan marmot and plague prevention. More studies are needed to understand the impact of climate change on Himalayan marmot and plague.

  16. Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Lauren B; Waaser, Stephanie A; MacLean, Heidi J; Fox, Richard

    2011-12-01

    Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.

  17. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  18. Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

    2017-06-01

    To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen

    2013-01-01

    the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen......The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...

  20. Climate change - clouds remain the misty factor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, M.

    2007-01-01

    Clouds are the great unknown quantity in predictions about climate change. For aeons they have been drifting quietly across the sky, but scientists still dont know exactly how they are formed and why they eventually come down again as rain. High time to take a closer look at clouds, say researchers

  1. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on desertification in the ... Currently, approximately 22.6% of the country's landmass is being affected by ... production, ecological degradation and emigration of people and animals.

  2. Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Vliet, van, A.J.H.; Ludwig, F.; P. Kabat

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This study proposes a modelling framework to incorporate water quality in analyses of cross-sectoral conflicts for water between human uses and ecosystems under climate change and socio-economic changes. ...

  3. Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This

  4. Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This st

  5. Do climate factors matter for producers' irrigation practices decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Tyler; Huang, Qiuqiong

    2017-09-01

    The study examines whether climatic factors play a role in producers' irrigation decisions. Empirical analysis uses a set of repeated cross-sectional farm level data collected in three American states: Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Empirical findings provide evidence that climatic conditions are factored into irrigation decisions. For example, higher mean temperature reduces the likelihood of using sprinkler irrigation in the study area. More importantly, findings of this study point to the importance of studying both long-term and short-term climate patterns. Long-term climate patterns weigh more in producers' decisions regarding the use of sprinklers. Both long-term and short-term climate patterns seem to affect producers' decisions on the use of WMPs. Producers may respond differently to similar changes in long-term and short-term climate patterns. For example, a higher occurrence of drought in the previous year predicts a higher rate of sprinklers, while an increasing trend of drought occurrence during the previous 30 years predicts the opposite. Our findings also highlight the importance of considering various aspects of the climate patterns. Average climate conditions, such as mean temperature and annual precipitation, and the occurrences of extreme weather events, such as droughts and intensive precipitation, have stronger predictive powers of producers' irrigation decisions than the coefficients of variation. In the study area, the occurrence of intensive precipitation seems to have the strongest impact on producers' irrigation decisions.

  6. Assessment of factors responsbile for climate change and human health problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jena, V. K.

    2010-09-01

    Weather and climate play important roles in determining patterns of air quality over multiple scales in time and space. Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. There is growing recognition that development of optimal control strategies for key pollutants like fine particles now requires assessment of potential future climate conditions and their influence on the attainment of air quality objectives. Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. In addition, other air contaminants of relevance to human health, including smoke from wildfires and airborne pollens and molds, may be influenced by climate change. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased PMs level in air. In this study, the focus is on the ways in which health-relevant measures of air quality, including particulate matter, and aeroallergens, may be affected by climate variability and change. The small but growing literature focusing on climate impacts on air quality, how these influences may play out in future decades, and the implications for human health is reviewed. Keywords: Climate change, responsible factors, health effects,

  7. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...

  8. Including Impacts of Climate Change in Long-Range Forecasts of Future Tuolumne River Streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenward, T.; Crawford, N. H.; Dufour, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Monier, W.

    2011-12-01

    Future streamflow is assessed for the Tuolumne River, a representative watershed in Sierra Nevada Mountains in California that provides 85% of the San Francisco Public Utility Commission's water supply for 2.5 million Bay Area residents and water to 8000 agricultural customers and over 200,000 electrical customers of the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts. The Hydrocomp Forecasting and Analysis Model (HFAM) is a hydrologic simulation model which provides probabilistic inflow forecasts based on a continuous long-term simulation of a watershed driven by a historical meteorological database. The HFAM model is used to assess potential changes in the timing and volume of streamflow by driving the model with a long-term meteorological database that has been altered to represent the future climate in a specific year, for a given climate change scenario. In the Tuolumne, historical trends show increases to daily minimum temperatures but not to daily maximum temperatures. A static meteorological database that represents the current climate condition is generated by removing trends from historical data. Climate change scenarios for paired changes in temperature and precipitation were developed based on the range of predictions by global climate models. For each future climate condition, hourly temperature increases to the static database are calculated that are consistent with historical trends in daily minimum temperatures, while retaining a reasonable daily range in temperatures. Changes in future seasonal and annual probabilistic inflow forecasts are given for the Tuolumne River for each climate change scenario. The results show the importance of using probabilistic methods to assess climate change rather than mean values because impacts are more significant in low streamflow years.

  9. [Advance to the research of the climate factor effect on the distribution of plague].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A P; Wei, R J; Xiong, H M; Wang, Z Y

    2016-05-01

    Plague is an anthropozoonotic disease caused by the Yersinia pestis ,which developed by many factors including local climate factors. In recent years, more and more studies on the effects of climate on plague were conducted. According to the researches, climate factors (mainly the rainfall and temperature) affected the development and distribution of plague by influencing the abundance of plague host animals and fleas index. The climate also affected the epidemic dynamics and the scope of plague. There were significant differences existing in the influence of climate on the palgue developed in the north and south China. In the two different plague epidemic systems, the solitary Daurian ground squirrel-flea-plague and the social Mongolian gerbil-flea-plague, the obvious population differences existed among the responses of the host animal to the climate changes. Although the internal relationship between the rainfall, the flea index, the density of rodents and the plague supported the nutritional cascade hypothesis, it can not prove that there is a clear causality between the occurrence of plague and rainfall. So the influence of climate factors on plague distribution can only be used for early forecasting and warning of the plague.

  10. Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2016-09-01

    Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

  11. Including indigenous peoples in climate change mitigation: addressing issues of scale, knowledge and power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brugnach, M.; Craps, M.; Dewulf, A.R.P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Involving indigenous peoples in the development of mitigation measures for climate change presents procedural, conceptual and structural challenges. Here, we reflect on some of these challenges and ways of overcoming them, as suggested by collaborative approaches to policy and decision making. We

  12. Impact of Climate and Environmental Factors on West Nile Virus Circulation in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Farzaneh Ahmadnejad; Vahid Otarod; Amanollah Fathnia; Ali Ahmadabadi; Fallah, Mohammad H.; Alireza Zavareh; Nargess Miandehi; Benoit Durand; Philippe Sabatier

    2016-01-01

    Background: Geographic distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) is heterogeneous in Iran by a high circulation in the southern-western areas. The objective of our study was to determine environmental and climatic factors associ­ated with the risk of WNV equine seropositivity in Iran.Methods: Serological data were obtained from a serosurvey conducted in equine population in 260 districts in Iran. The climate and environmental parameters included in the models were distance to the nearest wetland ...

  13. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    2015-01-01

    leaching and change in crop yield). The main input data originate from experiments, where spring barley cultivars were cultivated in a climate phytotron under controlled and manipulated treatments. Effects of changed climate on both crop productivity and crop quality were represented, as well as impacts......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  14. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  15. Climatic Benefit of Swiss Forest Cover Change: Including Albedo Change into Net Carbon Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwaab, J.; Lehning, M.; Bebi, P.

    2012-12-01

    Forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes. It has been shown that warming caused by the comparatively low albedo of forests (albedo-effect), can reduce or even exceed cooling caused by carbon storage in forests (CO2-effect). Although warming caused by albedo and the amount of carbon storage depend on local characteristics, studies are lacking that investigate the combined local patterns of albedo and CO2-effect. Our study area, Switzerland, provides a variety of geographical features and thus the possibility to show how different geographical variables influence the two effects. We used the concept of radiative forcing to compare the effect of a changing albedo and a change in atmospheric CO2 concentration due to land cover change in the past. The change of forest cover was analysed over a period of 12 years based on aerial photographs. We estimate the albedo-effect by combining albedo data derived from the satellite sensor MODIS and data on snow cover derived from the satellite sensor AVHRR. Changes in carbon storage were calculated as differences in biomass and soil stocks of specific land cover classes. We found carbon storage induced cooling to be higher than albedo induced warming everywhere in Switzerland. However, especially in altitudes over 1200 m the albedo-effect reduced the benefits of carbon storage by more than 50%. In lower altitudes the albedo change was less important. The albedo-effect in altitudes above 1200 m was more relevant because of a more persistent snow-cover, a slightly higher global radiation and less additional carbon storage. The relevance of warming caused by an albedo change did not only depend on altitude, but also on the characteristics of forest cover change. While transitions from open land to open forest were accompanied by high albedo changes, the albedo change was only marginal if open forest turned into closed forest. Since snow cover has a large influence on the albedo effect, we included

  16. Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

  17. The climate dependence of the terrestrial carbon cycle; including parameter and structural uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Smith

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The feedback between climate and the terrestrial carbon cycle will be a key determinant of the dynamics of the Earth System over the coming decades and centuries. However Earth System Model projections of the terrestrial carbon-balance vary widely over these timescales. This is largely due to differences in their carbon cycle models. A major goal in biogeosciences is therefore to improve understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle to enable better constrained projections. Essential to achieving this goal will be assessing the empirical support for alternative models of component processes, identifying key uncertainties and inconsistencies, and ultimately identifying the models that are most consistent with empirical evidence. To begin meeting these requirements we data-constrained all parameters of all component processes within a global terrestrial carbon model. Our goals were to assess the climate dependencies obtained for different component processes when all parameters have been inferred from empirical data, assess whether these were consistent with current knowledge and understanding, assess the importance of different data sets and the model structure for inferring those dependencies, assess the predictive accuracy of the model, and to identify a methodology by which alternative component models could be compared within the same framework in future. Although formulated as differential equations describing carbon fluxes through plant and soil pools, the model was fitted assuming the carbon pools were in states of dynamic equilibrium (input rates equal output rates. Thus, the parameterised model is of the equilibrium terrestrial carbon cycle. All but 2 of the 12 component processes to the model were inferred to have strong climate dependencies although it was not possible to data-constrain all parameters indicating some potentially redundant details. Similar climate dependencies were obtained for most processes whether inferred

  18. The climate dependence of the terrestrial carbon cycle, including parameter and structural uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Smith

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The feedback between climate and the terrestrial carbon cycle will be a key determinant of the dynamics of the Earth System (the thin layer that contains and supports life over the coming decades and centuries. However, Earth System Model projections of the terrestrial carbon-balance vary widely over these timescales. This is largely due to differences in their terrestrial carbon cycle models. A major goal in biogeosciences is therefore to improve understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle to enable better constrained projections. Utilising empirical data to constrain and assess component processes in terrestrial carbon cycle models will be essential to achieving this goal. We used a new model construction method to data-constrain all parameters of all component processes within a global terrestrial carbon model, employing as data constraints a collection of 12 empirical data sets characterising global patterns of carbon stocks and flows. Our goals were to assess the climate dependencies inferred for all component processes, assess whether these were consistent with current knowledge and understanding, assess the importance of different data sets and the model structure for inferring those dependencies, assess the predictive accuracy of the model and ultimately to identify a methodology by which alternative component models could be compared within the same framework in the future. Although formulated as differential equations describing carbon fluxes through plant and soil pools, the model was fitted assuming the carbon pools were in states of dynamic equilibrium (input rates equal output rates. Thus, the parameterised model is of the equilibrium terrestrial carbon cycle. All but 2 of the 12 component processes to the model were inferred to have strong climate dependencies, although it was not possible to data-constrain all parameters, indicating some potentially redundant details. Similar climate dependencies were obtained for most

  19. Some physical, physiological and biochemical adaptations of ruminant livestock including buffaloes to different feeds and climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.R. Ørskov

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Some of the adaptations of ruminant livestock to climate and feed resources are discussed. 1. Physical. Various types of coat serve to protect animals from cold and from the sun’s heat. 2. Physiological. Large rumen volumes enables animals to consume large amounts of poor roughages; fat depots in distinct regions of the body allow them to withstand regulation and fluctuating supply of nutrients, seasonality of reproduction matches requirement to seasonal variation in food supply. 3. Biochemical. There are species differences in the ability to recycle N to the rumen (buffaloes in the requirement for glucose to accommodate several days of fasting (camels, and in adaptation to low atmospheric oxygen tension (yaks. Such adaptations are important and should be considered when animals exported to areas where climates and feeds are different.

  20. A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

    2017-05-01

    Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

  1. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  2. Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15S including greenhouse warming and land degradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H. [Geographical Institute, University of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Thamm, H.P. [Geographical Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn (Germany)

    2007-08-15

    Previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of land degradation in tropical African climate. This effect urgently has to be taken into account when predicting future African climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Here, we present time slice experiments of African climate until 2025, using a high-resolution regional climate model. A supposable scenario of future land use changes, involving vegetation loss and soil degradation, is prescribed simultaneously with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in order to detect, where the different forcings counterbalance or reinforce each other. This proceeding allows us to define the regions of highest vulnerability with respect to future freshwater availability and food security in tropical and subtropical Africa and may provide a decision basis for political measures. The model simulates a considerable reduction in precipitation amount until 2025 over most of tropical Africa, amounting to partly more than 500 mm (20-40% of the annual sum), particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel Zone. The change is strongest in boreal summer and basically reflects the pattern of maximum vegetation cover during the seasonal cycle. The related change in the surface energy fluxes induces a substantial near-surface warming by up to 7C. According to the modified temperature gradients over tropical Africa, the summer monsoon circulation intensifies and transports more humid air masses into the southern part of West Africa. This humidifying effect is overcompensated by a remarkable decrease in surface evaporation, leading to the overall drying tendency over most of Africa. Extreme daily rainfall events become stronger in autumn but less intense in spring. Summer and autumn appear to be characterized by more severe heat waves over Subsaharan West Africa. In addition, the Tropical Easterly Jet is weakening, leading to enhanced drought conditions in the Sahel Zone. All these results suggest that the local impact of land

  3. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    of predicted extreme events, simulated through a long heat-wave. LCA results showed that the changed climatic conditions will likely increase the negative impacts on the environment from Danish spring barley cultivation, since all environmental impact categories experienced increased impact for all...... strategies should mainly focus on maintaining or improving crop productivity. The LCA also showed that selection of proper cultivars for future climate conditions including the challenge from extreme events is one of the most effective ways to reduce future environmental impacts of spring barley. Finally...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  4. Climatic factors and bipolar affective disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ellen Margrethe; Larsen, Jens Knud; Gjerris, Annette

    2008-01-01

    In bipolar disorder, the factors provoking a new episode are unknown. As a seasonal variation has been noticed, it has been suggested that weather conditions may play a role. The aim of the study was to elucidate whether meteorological parameters influence the development of new bipolar phases....... A group of patients with at least three previous hospitalizations for bipolar disorder was examined every 3 months for up to 3 years. At each examination an evaluation of the affective phase was made according to the Hamilton Depression Scale (HAM-D(17)), and the Bech-Rafaelsen Mania Rating Scale (MAS......). In the same period, daily recordings from the Danish Meteorological Institute were received. We found no correlations between onset of bipolar episodes [defined as MAS score of 11 or more (mania) and as HAM-D(17) score of 12 or more (depression)] and any meteorological parameters. We found a statistical...

  5. Irrigation water productivity is more influenced by agronomic practice factors than by climatic factors in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaolin; Zhang, Xiaotao; Niu, Jun; Tong, Ling; Kang, Shaozhong; Du, Taisheng; Li, Sien; Ding, Risheng

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying the influence of driving factors on irrigation water productivity (IWP) is vital for efficient agricultural water use. This study analyzed contributions of agronomic practice and climatic factors to the changes of IWP, based on the data from 1981 to 2012 in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China. Cobb-Douglas production functions were developed by the partial least squares method and contribution rates of the driving factors were calculated. Results showed that IWP and its driving factors increased during the study period, with different changing patterns. IWP was significantly correlated with the agronomic practice factors, daily mean temperature and solar radiation of the crop growing period. The agronomic practice factors including irrigation, fertilization, agricultural film, and agricultural pesticide contributed 20.6%, 32.8%, 42.3% and 11.1% respectively to the increase of IWP; and the contribution rates of the climatic factors, i.e. daily mean temperature and solar radiation, are ‑0.9% and 0.9%. And the contributions of these factors changed in different sub-periods. It is concluded that agronomic practice factors influenced IWP much more than climatic factors. The improvement of IWP should rely on advanced water-saving technology and application of optimum (need-based) fertilizer, agricultural film and pesticide, ensuring efficient use of agronomic inputs in the study area.

  6. High resolution multi model Climate change scenario over India including first uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.; Wiltshire, A.; Asharaf, S.; Ahrens, B.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Christensen, J. H.; Gobiet, A.; Saeed, F.; Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D.

    2011-12-01

    This study presents the possible regional climate change over SA with a focus over India as simulated by three very-high-resolution regional climate models. The models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions from two global models (ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) under the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario at horizontal resolution of ~25km, except one model which is simulated for only one GCM. The results are presented for two time slices 2021-2050 and 2070-2099. The analysis concentrates along precipitation and temperature over land and focuses mainly on the monsoon season. The circulation parameter is also discussed. In general all models show a clear signal of gradual wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming evident at the end of 2050 is 1-2K, whereas it is 3-5K at the end of century. The projected pattern of the precipitation change shows spatial variability. The increase in precipitation is noticed over peninsular and coastal areas and no change or decrease over areas away from the ocean. The influence of the driving GCM on projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one GCM. Some results of the first uncertainties assessment are also presented.

  7. Should we include avoidance of deforestation in the international response to climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlamadinger, B. [Joanneum Research, Graz (Austria); Ciccarese, L. [Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services, Rome (Italy); Dutschke, M. [Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg (Germany); Fearnside, P.M. [Department of Ecology, National Institute for Amazonian Research INPA, Belem, Para (Brazil); Brown, S. [Winrock International, Little Rock, Arkansas (United States); Murdiyarso, D. [Center for International Forestry Research, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2005-07-01

    Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that during the 1990's 16.1 million hectares per year were affected by deforestation, most of them in the tropics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that, for the same period, the contribution of land-use changes to GHG accumulation into the atmosphere was 1.6{+-}0.8 Giga (1G=109) tonnes of carbon per year, a quantity that corresponds to 25% of the total annual global emissions of GHGs. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in recognising climate change as a serious threat, urged counties to take up measures to enhance and conserve ecosystems such as forests that act as reservoirs and sinks of GHGs. The Kyoto Protocol (KP), adopted in 1997, complements the UNFCCC by providing an enforceable agreement with quantitative targets for reducing GHG emissions. For fulfilling their emission-limitation commitments under the KP, industrialized countries (listed in the KP's Annex I) can use land-based activities, such as reducing deforestation, establishing new forests (afforestation and reforestation) and other vegetation types, managing agricultural and forestlands in a way that the 'carbon sink' is maximized. Annex I countries may also claim credit for carbon sequestration in developing countries by afforestation and reforestation (AR) through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the 'Kyoto Mechanisms' that allow countries to achieve reductions where it is economically efficient to do so. For the period 2008-2012, forestry activities under the CDM have been restricted to afforestation and reforestation on areas that were not forested in 1990. In addition, CDM projects must lead to emission reductions or net carbon uptake additional to what would have occurred without the CDM funding

  8. Analysis of Climatic Factors Influencing Walnut Distribution in the Main Producing Areas of Yunnan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liangjun; XIAO; Ting; MA; Delu; Ning

    2013-01-01

    Using the data of 11 climatic factors on 40 counties in the main producing areas of walnut of Yunnan Province,we analyze the impact of various climatic factors on the distribution of Yunnan walnut.The results show that Yunnan walnut has a great expectation on temperature and moisture.Temperature,including average temperature in January,average temperature in July,the average annual temperature and accumulated temperature≥10℃,has the greatest impact on the distribution of Yunnan walnut,and is the primary dominant factor;moisture,including annual rainfall and average relative humidity,has a great impact on the distribution of Yunnan walnut,and is the secondary dominant factor.

  9. Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Souris

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

  10. Phylogenetic conservatism and climate factors shape flowering phenology in alpine meadows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lanping; Li, Zhikuo; Cadotte, Marc W; Jia, Peng; Chen, Guanguang; Jin, Lanna S; Du, Guozhen

    2016-10-01

    The study of phylogenetic conservatism in alpine plant phenology is critical for predicting climate change impacts; currently we have a poor understanding of how phylogeny and climate factors interactively influence plant phenology. Therefore, we explored the influence of phylogeny and climate factors on flowering phenology in alpine meadows. For two different types of alpine plant communities, we recorded phenological data, including flowering peak, first flower budding, first flowering, first fruiting and the flowering end for 62 species over the course of 5 years (2008-2012). From sequences in two plastid regions, we constructed phylogenetic trees. We used Blomberg's K and Pagel's lambda to assess the phylogenetic signal in phenological traits and species' phenological responses to climate factors. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in the date of all reproductive phenological events and in species' phenological responses to weekly day length and temperature. The number of species in flower was strongly associated with the weekly day lengths and followed by the weekly temperature prior to phenological activity. Based on phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) analysis, we found a highly shared influence of phylogeny and climate factors on alpine species flowering phenology. Our results suggest the phylogenetic conservatism in both flowering and fruiting phenology may depend on the similarity of responses to external environmental cues among close relatives.

  11. Spatial diffusion of influenza outbreak-related climate factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakapan, Supachai; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Tipdecho, Taravudh; Souris, Marc

    2012-10-24

    Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

  12. Optimized ground-coupled heat pump system design for northern climate applications. [Including ground coil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catan, M.A.; Baxter, V.D.

    1985-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of the performance of a ground coupled heat pump (GCHP) system with a water - source heat pump package designed expressly for such systems operating in a northern climate. The project objective was to minimize the life-cycle cost of a GCHP system by optimizing the design of both the heat pump package and the ground coil in concert. In order to achieve this objective, a number of modelling tools were developed or modified to analyze the heat pump's performance and cost and the ground coil's performance. The life-cycle cost of a GCHP system (water-source heat pump with a horizontal ground coil) for an 1800 ft/sup 2/ (167 m/sup 2/) house in Pittsburgh, PA, was minimized over a 7 year economic life. Simple payback for the optimized GCHP system, relative to conventional air-source heat pumps, was under 3 years. The water-source heat pump package resulting from this optimization is calculated to cost 21% more than its conventional counterpart with a heating coefficient of performance (COP) about 20% higher, and a cooling COP about 23% higher. In the GCHP system modeled, its annual energy savings are predicted to be about 11% compared to a system designed around the conventional heat pump while having about the same installation cost. The major conclusion of this study is - GCHP system performance improvement can be attained by improving the water-source heat pump package at less cost than by buying more ground coil. The following conclusions were drawn from the steady-state performance optimization results: (1) By adding about $100.00 to the manufacturer's cost off construction, both the heating and cooling COPs can be improved by 20% or more. (2) Cooling COP need not be sacrificed for the sake of heating performance and vice versa. 13 refs., 11 figs., 12 tabs.

  13. Factors Influencing the HRD Climate of an Organization

    OpenAIRE

    Neeraj Kumari

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the study was to find out which factor (s) influence the HRD climate of the company. The descriptive research design was under taken with the help of the structured questionnaire to study the OCTAPACE culture of Spanco Ltd. which was based on the responses of the various levels of employees working in it. Thesample consistsof 59 employees.Employees believe that the top management gives importance to the human resource and all the employees are treated humanely in the organization. ...

  14. Evaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Johnson, Fiona; Evans, Jason

    2015-09-01

    Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on ARFs. A new methodology for estimating changes in ARFs is presented. This method is used to assess changes in ARFs in the greater Sydney region using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). ARFs under present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climate conditions were derived and compared for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from 50% to 5% for durations ranging from 1 h to 120 h. The analysis shows two main trends in the future changes in ARFs. For the shortest duration events (1-h) the ARFs are found to increase which implies that these events will tend to have a larger spatial structure in the future than the current climate. In contrast, storms with durations between 6 and 72 h are likely to have decreased ARFs in the future, suggesting a more restricted spatial coverage of storms under a warming climate. The extent of the decrease varies with event frequency and catchment size. The largest decreases are found for large catchments and rare events. Although the results here are based on a single RCM and need to be confirmed in future work with multiple models, the framework that is proposed will be useful for future studies considering changes in the areal extent of rainfall extremes.

  15. Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

    2014-12-01

    Background The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. Objectives To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. Methods A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. Results In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. Conclusions More studies of high quality are needed to

  16. Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May and winter (November to January, during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model

  17. Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Silva-Flores

    Full Text Available Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole, 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9-14%, 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50% and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally

  18. Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9-14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

  19. Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Duchesne

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter, the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions.

  20. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  1. Resource and environmental factors should be included in economic analytical framework

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金碚

    2009-01-01

    In the economic analysis framework,natural resources and environmental factors are included in the category of capital or land.Hence,the explanatory variables of the production function only include capital,labor and the residue term technology.Such framework may be designed for methodological reasons,but it is determined

  2. Organizational Climate: An Analysis of Factors and Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Linda

    1986-01-01

    The author investigates the literature on organizational climate, presents an overview of aspects of such climate, and assesses areas needing further investigation. One problem is definition of the term "organizational climate." She stresses the need for clarification and special emphasis on the long-term nature of climate. (Author/CH)

  3. Organizational Climate: An Analysis of Factors and Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Linda

    1986-01-01

    The author investigates the literature on organizational climate, presents an overview of aspects of such climate, and assesses areas needing further investigation. One problem is definition of the term "organizational climate." She stresses the need for clarification and special emphasis on the long-term nature of climate. (Author/CH)

  4. Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Dransfield, John;

    2010-01-01

    Most of the Earth's biodiversity resides in the tropics. However, a comprehensive understanding of which factors control range limits of tropical species is still lacking. Climate is often thought to be the predominant range-determining mechanism at large spatial scales. Alternatively, species...... for predicting their responses to future global change. Here, we use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental-scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non......-climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions...

  5. Malaria, in second place, sees fewer victims, but greater difficulty of control. With climate, including global warming, as complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    This is an article on malarial risks and prevention. Malaria is the deadliest tropical parasitic disease and one of the leading causes of death. The risk for this disease has been linked with changes in land use related to road building, mining, logging, and agricultural and irrigation projects. Global climatic change, disintegration of health services, armed conflicts, and mass movements of refugees also contribute to the increasing risk for malaria. Disease prevention includes a variety of measures that may protect against infection. They may be directed against the mosquito vector or against the development of disease in infected individuals. The WHO stresses the curability of malaria in spite of the occurrence of drug resistance. If the antimalarial drugs are used properly and targeted to those at risk, malarial disease and death can be reduced. Vaccines are also in development; an effective one could be available within the next 7-15 years.

  6. Climate and terrain factors explaining streamflow response and recession in Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. J. M. van Dijk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Daily streamflow data were analysed to assess which climate and terrain factors best explain streamflow response in 183 Australian catchments. Assessed descriptors of catchment response included the parameters of fitted baseflow models, and baseflow index (BFI, average quick flow and average baseflow derived by baseflow separation. The variation in response between catchments was compared with indicators of catchment climate, morphology, geology, soils and land use. Spatial coherence in the residual unexplained variation was investigated using semi-variogram techniques. A linear reservoir model (one parameter; recession coefficient produced baseflow estimates as good as those obtained using a non-linear reservoir (two parameters and for practical purposes was therefore considered an appropriate balance between simplicity and explanatory performance. About a third (27–34% of the spatial variation in recession coefficients and BFI was explained by catchment climate indicators, with another 53% of variation being spatially correlated over distances of 100–150 km, probably indicative of substrate characteristics not captured by the available soil and geology data. The shortest recession half-times occurred in the driest catchments and were attributed to intermittent occurrence of fast-draining (possibly perched groundwater. Most (70–84% of the variation in average baseflow and quick flow was explained by rainfall and climate characteristics; another 20% of variation was spatially correlated over distances of 300–700 km, possibly reflecting a combination of terrain and climate factors. It is concluded that catchment streamflow response can be predicted quite well on the basis of catchment climate alone. The prediction of baseflow recession response should be improved further if relevant substrate properties were identified and measured.

  7. A post-new horizons global climate model of Pluto including the N2, CH4 and CO cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Bertrand, T.; Vangvichith, M.; Leconte, J.; Millour, E.; Lellouch, E.

    2017-05-01

    We have built a new 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) to simulate Pluto as observed by New Horizons in 2015. All key processes are parametrized on the basis of theoretical equations, including atmospheric dynamics and transport, turbulence, radiative transfer, molecular conduction, as well as phases changes for N2, CH2 and CO. Pluto's climate and ice cycles are found to be very sensitive to model parameters and initial states. Nevertheless, a reference simulation is designed by running a fast, reduced version of the GCM with simplified atmospheric transport for 40,000 Earth years to initialize the surface ice distribution and sub-surface temperatures, from which a 28-Earth-year full GCM simulation is performed. Assuming a topographic depression in a Sputnik-planum (SP)-like crater on the anti-Charon hemisphere, a realistic Pluto is obtained, with most N2 and CO ices accumulated in the crater, methane frost covering both hemispheres except for the equatorial regions, and a surface pressure near 1.1 Pa in 2015 with an increase between 1988 and 2015, as reported from stellar occultations. Temperature profiles are in qualitative agreement with the observations. In particular, a cold atmospheric layer is obtained in the lowest kilometers above Sputnik Planum, as observed by New Horizons's REX experiment. It is shown to result from the combined effect of the topographic depression and N2 daytime sublimation. In the reference simulation with surface N2 ice exclusively present in Sputnik Planum, the global circulation is only forced by radiative heating gradients and remains relatively weak. Surface winds are locally induced by topography slopes and by N2 condensation and sublimation around Sputnik Planum. However, the circulation can be more intense depending on the exact distribution of surface N2 frost. This is illustrated in an alternative simulation with N2 condensing in the South Polar regions and N2 frost covering latitudes between 35°N and 48°N. A global condensation

  8. [Relationships between Kobresia's species richness and climatic factors in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian-Guo; Zhou, Qiao-Fu

    2012-04-01

    Based on the information from collected literatures, this paper defined the geographical distribution of Kobresia in China, and analyzed the relationships between the Kobresia's species richness and climatic factors. The Kobresia in China had higher species richness on the borders of Yunnan Province, Sichuan Province, and Tibet Autonomous Region and in the southeast Qinghai Province and Himalayas, with a denser and wider distribution in the areas of altitude 2500 m, or the areas of lower or medium thermal factors, medium precipitation, medium aridity and humidity, or medium sunshine duration. The species richness was significantly negatively correlated with the mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature in July and the mean air temperature in summer (P index, annual biotemperature, extreme maximum air temperature, air temperature in summer, and mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature in July. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the maximum air temperature in July and the precipitation in spring had significant effects on the species richness (Pindex, sunshine hours in April-October, precipitation in summer and autumn, and annual precipitation had greater effects on the richness. The air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours in growth season as well as the extreme maximum air temperature, annual precipitation, and soil moisture content were the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of Kobresia in China.

  9. A Study of Factors Promoting Success in Computer Science Including Gender Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantwell Wilson, Brenda

    2002-03-01

    This study was conducted to determine factors that promote success in an introductory college computer science course and to determine what, if any, differences appear between genders on those factors. The model included math background, attribution for success/failure, self-efficacy, encouragement, comfort level in the course, work style preference, previous programming experience, previous non-programming computer experience, and gender as possible predictive factors for success in the computer science course. Subjects included 105 students enrolled in an introductory computer science course. The study revealed three predictive factors in the following order of importance: comfort level (with a positive influence), math background (with a positive influence), and attribution to luck (with a negative influence). No significant gender differences were found in these three factors. The study also revealed that both a formal class in programming (which had a positive correlation) and game playing (which had a negative correlation) were predictive of success. The study revealed a significant gender difference in game playing with males reporting more experience with playing games on the computer than females reported.

  10. Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, G; Cecchi, L

    2008-08-01

    A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere and the human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. However, there is also considerable evidence that subjects affected by asthma are at an increased risk of developing obstructive airway exacerbations with exposure to gaseous and particulate components of air pollution. It is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate change and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations. However, the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity suggests that air pollution and climate changes could be contributing. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution, rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy, prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Meteorological factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.) along with their climatological regimes (warm or cold anomalies and dry or wet periods, etc.), can affect both biological and chemical components of this interaction. In addition, by inducing airway inflammation, air pollution overcomes the mucosal barrier priming allergen-induced responses. In conclusion, climate change might induce negative effects on respiratory allergic diseases. In particular, the increased length and severity of the pollen season, the higher occurrence of heavy precipitation events and the

  11. An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

  12. An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

  13. GIS-based models for water quantity and quality assessment in the Júcar River Basin, Spain, including climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Javier; Pérez-Martín, Miguel A; Jiménez, Sara; Estrela, Teodoro; Andreu, Joaquín

    2012-12-01

    This paper describes two different GIS models - one stationary (GeoImpress) and the other non-stationary (Patrical) - that assess water quantity and quality in the Júcar River Basin District, a large river basin district (43,000km(2)) located in Spain. It aims to analyze the status of surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and to support measures to achieve the WFD objectives. The non-stationary model is used for quantitative analysis of water resources, including long-term water resource assessment; estimation of available GW resources; and evaluation of climate change impact on water resources. The main results obtained are the following: recent water resources have been reduced by approximately 18% compared to the reference period 1961-1990; the GW environmental volume required to accomplish the WFD objectives is approximately 30% of the GW annual resources; and the climate change impact on water resources for the short-term (2010-2040), based on a dynamic downscaling A1B scenario, implies a reduction in water resources by approximately 19% compared to 1990-2000 and a reduction of approximately 40-50% for the long-term (2070-2100), based on dynamic downscaling A2 and B2 scenarios. The model also assesses the impact of various fertilizer application scenarios on the status of future GW quality (nitrate) and if these future statuses will meet the WFD requirements. The stationary model generates data on the actual and future chemical status of SW bodies in the river basin according to the modeled scenarios and reflects the implementation of different types of measures to accomplish the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive and the WFD. Finally, the selection and prioritization of additional measures to accomplish the WFD are based on cost-effectiveness analysis.

  14. TUMOR NECROSIS FACTOR-α INHIBITORS IN THE TREATMENT OF AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS, INCLUDING ANKYLOSING SPONDYLITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Lapshina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides guidelines for the use of tumor necrosis factor-α  (TNF-α inhibitors in the treatment of patients with axial spondyloarthritis  (axSpA, including ankylosing spondylitis. It gives data on the efficacy of TNF-α inhibitors in patients with non-radiographic axSpA. By using international and Russian guidelines, the authors lay down indications for this therapy and criteria for evaluation of its efficiency and safety.

  15. Estimating productivity of tropical forest plantations by climatic factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandey, D.

    1996-12-31

    This study presents an alternative method of estimating wood production at regional/global levels from tropical plantations based on climatic variables. A generic model for estimating potential yield in tropical plantations was formulated. The model was developed for teak (Tectona grandis L. F.) as a case study. Available data of teak sample plots from India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast, consisting of 153 plots distributed over 38 meteorological stations were used. A new base age invariant site index function was developed and the site index of each plot was estimated. The mean annual volume increment (MAI) of each plot from existing yield tables was then interpolated. Treating MAI at 50 years (rotation age) as potential yield of teak, a model was constructed which could explain about 59% variance of the potential yield. Models constructed for estimating the maximum MAI and the site index of teak explained the variability up to 61% and 57% respectively. The models underestimated the productivity of teak in Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. The rainfall and the relative humidity have been identified as the most important climatic variables influencing the growth of teak. The length of the growing season and the temperature of the warmest month of the growing season were found significant in the models. The temperature and the day length (sunshine) have not been found to be the limiting factors for the growth of teak. However, the maximum temperature beyond a certain upper limit has a negative effect on growth. The study indicates that this upper limit is around 33 deg C for teak. The models could be used to forecast the potential yield of the existing as well as planned teak plantations in the tropical region. 109 refs, 15 figs, 11 tabs

  16. Climatic factors associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a spatial analysis from Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Piao Tsai

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Few studies have assessed the spatial association of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS incidence in the world. The aim of this study was to identify the association of climatic factors and ALS incidence in Taiwan. A total of 1,434 subjects with the primary diagnosis of ALS between years 1997 and 2008 were identified in the national health insurance research database. The diagnosis was also verified by the national health insurance programme, which had issued and providing them with “serious disabling disease (SDD certificates”. Local indicators of spatial association were employed to investigate spatial clustering of agestandardised incidence ratios in the townships of the study area. Spatial regression was utilised to reveal any association of annual average climatic factors and ALS incidence for the 12-year study period. The climatic factors included the annual average time of sunlight exposure, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed with spatial autocorrelation controlled. Significant correlations were only found for exposure to sunlight and rainfall and it was similar in both genders. The annual average of the former was found to be negatively correlated with ALS, while the latter was positively correlated with ALS incidence. While accepting that ALS is most probably multifactorial, it was concluded that sunlight deprivation and/or rainfall are associated to some degree with ALS incidence in Taiwan.

  17. A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-01-01

    in climate model biases are negligible. This study develops a Bayesian framework that accounts for model dependencies and changes in model biases and compares it to estimates calculated based on a frequentist approach. The Bayesian framework is used to investigate the effects of the two assumptions......Climate change impact studies are subject to numerous uncertainties and assumptions. One of the main sources of uncertainty arises from the interpretation of climate model projections. Probabilistic procedures based on multimodel ensembles have been suggested in the literature to quantify...... this source of uncertainty. However, the interpretation of multimodel ensembles remains challenging. Several assumptions are often required in the uncertainty quantification of climate model projections. For example, most methods often assume that the climate models are independent and/or that changes...

  18. International colloquium challenge climate for the France: the factor 4; Colloque international defi climat pour la France: le facteur 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The objective factor 4 is the division by four of the greenhouse gases emission. This colloquium aims to define possible actions to reach this objective. The first part concerns presentations of personalities of the domain and offers an international panorama of the energetic and environmental policies, against the climatic change and how to reconcile economic growth with climatic change. The second part wonders on the mobilization of the actors secton a national and international framework. (A.L.B.)

  19. Z' factor including siRNA design quality parameter in RNAi screening experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, Sławomir; Kozak, Karol

    2012-05-01

    RNA interference (RNAi) high-content screening (HCS) enables massive parallel gene silencing and is increasingly being used to reveal novel connections between genes and disease-relevant phenotypes. The application of genome-scale RNAi relies on the development of high quality HCS assays. The Z' factor statistic provides a way to evaluate whether or not screening run conditions (reagents, protocols, instrumentation, kinetics, and other conditions not directly related to the test compounds) are optimized. Z' factor, introduced by Zhang et al., ( 1) is a dimensionless value that represents both the variability and the dynamic range between two sets of sample control data. This paper describe a new extension of the Z' factor, which integrates bioinformatics RNAi non-target compounds for screening quality assessment. Currently presented Z' factor is based on positive and negative control, which may not be sufficient for RNAi experiments including oligonucleotides (oligo) with lack of knock-down. This paper proposes an algorithm which extends existing algorithm by using additional controls generetaed from on-target analysis.

  20. Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

    2016-12-15

    Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested.

  1. Behavioral factors to include in guidelines for lifelong oral healthiness: an observational study in Japanese adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimozato Miho

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to determine which behavioral factors to include in guidelines for the Japanese public to achieve an acceptable level of oral healthiness. The objective was to determine the relationship between oral health related behaviors and symptoms related to oral disease and tooth loss in a Japanese adult community. Methods Oral health status and lifestyle were investigated in 777 people aged 20 years and older (390 men and 387 women. Subjects were asked to complete a postal questionnaire concerning past diet and lifestyle. The completed questionnaires were collected when they had health examinations. The 15 questions included their preference for sweets, how many between-meal snacks they usually had per day, smoking and drinking habits, presence of oral symptoms, and attitudes towards dental visits. Participants were asked about their behaviors at different stages of their life. The oral health examinations included examination of the oral cavity and teeth performed by dentists using WHO criteria. Odds ratios were calculated for all subjects, all 10 year age groups, and for subjects 30 years or older, 40 years or older, 50 years or older, and 60 years or older. Results Frequency of tooth brushing (OR = 3.98, having your own toothbrush (OR = 2.11, smoking (OR = 2.71 and bleeding gums (OR = 2.03 were significantly associated with number of retained teeth in males. Frequency of between-meal snacks was strongly associated with number of retained teeth in females (OR = 4.67. Having some hobbies (OR = 2.97, having a family dentist (OR = 2.34 and consulting a dentist as soon as symptoms occurred (OR = 1.74 were significantly associated with number of retained teeth in females. Factors that were significantly associated with tooth loss in both males and females included alcohol consumption (OR = 11.96, males, OR = 3.83, females, swollen gums (OR = 1.93, males, OR = 3.04, females and toothache (OR = 3.39, males, OR

  2. Stochastic variability and noise-induced generation of chaos in a climate feedback system including the carbon dioxide dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, D. V.; Bashkirtseva, I. A.; Ryashko, L. B.

    2016-08-01

    In this work, a non-linear dynamics of a simple three-dimensional climate model in the presence of stochastic forcing is studied. We demonstrate that a dynamic scenario of mixed-mode stochastic oscillations of the climate system near its equilibrium can be formed. As this takes place, a growth of noise intensity increases the frequency of interspike intervals responsible for the abrupt climate changes. In addition, a certain enhancement of stochastic forcing abruptly increases the atmospheric carbon dioxide and decreases the Earth's ice mass. A transition from order to chaos occurring at a critical noise is shown.

  3. Revised emission factors for gas engines including start/stop emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, Malene; Boll Illerup, J.; Birr-Petersen, K.

    2008-06-15

    Liberalisation of the electricity market has led to Danish gas engine plants increasingly converting to the spot and regulating power markets. In order to offer regulating power, plants need to be able to start and stop the engines at the plants quickly. The liberalisation causes a considerable change of operation practice of the engines e.g. less full load operation hours /year. The project provides an inventory determining the scale of the emissions during the start and stop sequence as well as proposals for engine modifications aimed at reducing start/stop emissions. This report includes calculation of emission factors as well as an inventory of total emissions and reduction potentials. (au)

  4. Climate factors influencing bacterial count in background air samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Roy M; Jones, Alan M; Biggins, Peter D E; Pomeroy, Nigel; Cox, Christopher S; Kidd, Stephen P; Hobman, Jon L; Brown, Nigel L; Beswick, Alan

    2005-01-01

    Total (as opposed to culturable) bacterial number counts are reported for four sites in the United Kingdom measured during campaigns over four separate seasons. These are interpreted in relation to simple climatic factors, i.e. temperature, wind speed and wind direction. Temperature has a marked effect at all four sites with data for a rural coastal site conforming best to a simple exponential model. Data for the other rural and urban locations show a baseline similar to that determined at the coastal rural location, but with some very significant positive excursions. The temperature dependence of bacterial number is found to conform to that typical of bacterial growth rates. At the coastal rural location, bacterial numbers normalised for temperature show no dependence on wind speed whilst at the inland sites there is a decrease with increasing wind speed of the form expected for a large area source. Only one site appeared to show a systematic relationship of bacterial concentrations to wind direction that being a site in the suburbs of Birmingham with highest number concentrations observed on a wind sector approaching from the city centre. PCR techniques have been used to identify predominant types of bacteria and results are presented which show that Bacillus was the dominant genus observed at the three inland sites during the winter and summer seasons. Pseudomonas appeared with comparable frequency at certain sites and seasons. There was in general a greater diversity of bacteria at the coastal site than at the inland sites.

  5. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Full Text Available Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  6. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Thiaw, Wassila; Kumar, Vadlamani; Manga, Noël M; Diop, Bernard M; Gueye, Lamine; Kamara, Mamina; Roche, Benjamin; Murtugudde, Raghu; Colwell, Rita R

    2012-01-01

    Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  7. The impact of climate factors on the prevalence of urolithiasis in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Jen Lin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Urolithiasis is a common disease with high prevalence and recurrence. Its incidence varies in different geographic locations, and there are evidences that meteorological factors also affect urinary stone formation. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of climate parameters on the numbers of shockwave treatments for urinary stones in our hospital, in order to understand the effects of these parameters on the prevalence of urolithiasis in northern Taiwan. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL performed in our hospital from December 2006 to November 2011. Repeated ESWL performed in the same patient within 1 month was excluded, and we only counted as one ESWL in our study. Climate data of the corresponding months were collected from Central Weather Bureau. The available monthly meteorological data included highest, lowest, and average temperatures, humidity, rainfall, total rain days, sunshine hours, average atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Results: Monthly ESWL number was positively correlated to temperature (r = 0.696, sunshine hours (r = 0.515, and wind speed (r = 0.369, while it was negatively correlated to humidity (r = -0.441 and atmospheric pressure (r = -0.568. Average monthly temperature had the strongest correlation to ESWL number (r2 = 0.484. Monthly rainfall and rain days were not significantly correlated to ESWL number. To investigate the climate parameters together, we introduced these correlated factors into the multivariate linear regression model which demonstrated only temperature (ß = 1.438, 95% CI: 3.703-9.144, p < 0.001 and atmospheric pressure (ß = 0.803, 95% CI: 0.790-5.428, p = 0.010 to be independently related to monthly ESWL number. Conclusion: Temperature and atmospheric pressure are associated with monthly ESWL number. Ambient temperature is the most important climate factor affecting the prevalence of urolithiasis in northern Taiwan.

  8. Impact of Climate and Environmental Factors on West Nile Virus Circulation in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Ahmadnejad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geographic distribution of West Nile virus (WNV is heterogeneous in Iran by a high circulation in the southern-western areas. The objective of our study was to determine environmental and climatic factors associ­ated with the risk of WNV equine seropositivity in Iran.Methods: Serological data were obtained from a serosurvey conducted in equine population in 260 districts in Iran. The climate and environmental parameters included in the models were distance to the nearest wetland area, type of stable, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, annual mean temperature, humidity and precipitation.Results: The important risk factors included annual mean temperature, distance to wetlands, local and seasonal NDVI differences. The effect of local NDVI differences in spring was particularly notable. This was a normalized difference of average NDVI between two areas: a 5 km radius area centered on the stable and the 5–10 km sur­rounding area.Conclusion: The model indicated that local NDVI’s contrast during spring is a major risk factor of the transmission of West-Nile virus in Iran. This so-called oasis effect consistent with the seasonal production of vegetation in spring, and is associated to the attractiveness of the local NDVI environment for WNV vectors and hosts.  

  9. Winter climate change: a critical factor for temperate vegetation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreyling, Juergen

    2010-07-01

    Winter ecological processes are important drivers of vegetation and ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. There, winter conditions are subject to rapid climate change. The potential loss of a longer-lasting snow cover with implications to other plant-related climate parameters and overwintering strategies make the temperate zone particularly vulnerable to winter climate change. A formalized literature search in the ISI Web of Science shows that plant related research on the effects of winter climate change is generally underrepresented. Temperate regions in particular are rarely studied in this respect, although the few existing studies imply strong effects of winter climate change on species ranges, species compositions, phenology, or frost injury. The generally positive effect of warming on plant survival and production may be counteracted by effects such as an increased frost injury of roots and shoots, an increased insect pest risk, or a disrupted synchrony between plants and pollinators. Based on the literature study, gaps in current knowledge are discussed. Understanding the relative effects of interacting climate parameters, as well as a stronger consideration of shortterm events and variability of climatic conditions is urgent. With respect to plant response, it would be particularly worthwhile to account for hidden players such as pathogens, pollinators, herbivores, or fungal partners in mycorrhization.

  10. Including Fossils in Phylogenetic Climate Reconstructions: A Deep Time Perspective on the Climatic Niche Evolution and Diversification of Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P

    2016-08-01

    Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce.

  11. A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-07-01

    A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of field and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.

  12. Dominant climatic factor driving annual runoff change at catchments scale over China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Huang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With global climate changes intensifying, the hydrological response to climate changes has attracted more attentions. It is beneficial not only for hydrology and ecology but also for water resources planning and management to reveal the impacts of climate change on runoff. It is of great significance of climate elasticity of runoff to estimate the impacts of climatic factors on runoff. In addition, there are large spatial variations in climate type and geography characteristics over China. To get a better understanding the spatial variation of runoff response to climate variables change and detect the dominant climatic factor driving annual runoff change, we chose the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011, where the impact of the catchment characteristics on runoff was represented by a parameter n. The results show that the dominant climatic factor driving annual runoff is precipitation in the most part of China, net radiation in the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin, the Pearl River Basin, the Huai River Basin and the southeast area, and wind speed in part of the northeast China.

  13. Prognostic factors of infantile spasms: role of treatment options including a ketogenic diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeehun; Lee, Jun Hwa; Yu, Hee Jun; Lee, Munhyang

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study was to provide additional evidences on prognostic factors for infantile spasms and the possible role of a ketogenic diet. A retrospective analysis was performed for patients with infantile spasms who had been followed up for more than 6months between January 2000 and July 2012 at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Republic of Korea). We analyzed the association between possible prognostic factors and seizure/developmental outcomes. Sixty-nine patients were included in this study and their mean follow-up duration was 52.5 (9-147) months. In the patients who had been followed up for more than 2years, 53.6% (n=30/57) remained seizure-free at the last visit. Sixty patients (86.9%) showed developmental delay at last follow-up. Forty-two patients (60.9%) became spasm-free with one or two antiepileptic drugs, one patient with epilepsy surgery for a tumor, and seven patients with a ketogenic diet after the failure of two or more antiepileptic drugs. The etiology and age of seizure onset were the significant prognostic factors. In this study, about 60% of the patients became spasm-free with vigabatrin and topiramate. Ketogenic diet increased the rate by 10% in the remaining antiepileptic drug resistant patients. However, 86.9% of the patients showed developmental delay, mostly a severe degree. Early diagnosis and prompt application of treatment options such as antiepileptic drugs, a ketogenic diet or epilepsy surgery can improve outcomes in patients with infantile spasms. Copyright © 2013 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Macroenvironmental factors including GDP per capita and physical activity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Adrian J; Van Stralen, Maartje M; Kunst, Anton E; Te Velde, Saskia J; Van Lenthe, Frank J; Salmon, Jo; Brug, Johannes

    2013-02-01

    Socioeconomic inequalities in physical activity at the individual level are well reported. Whether inequalities in economic development and other macroenvironmental variables between countries are also related to physical activity at the country level is comparatively unstudied. We examined the relationship between country-level data on macroenvironmental factors (gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, public sector expenditure on health, percentage living in urban areas, and cars per 1000 population) with country-level physical activity prevalence obtained from previous pan-European studies. Studies that assessed leisuretime physical activity (n = 3 studies including 27 countries in adults, n = 2 studies including 28 countries in children) and total physical activity (n = 3 studies in adults including 16 countries) were analyzed separately as were studies among adults and children. Strong and consistent positive correlations were observed between country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity and country GDP per capita in adults (average r = 0.70; all studies, P G 0.05). In multivariate analysis, country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity among adults remained associated with country GDP per capita (two of three studies) but not urbanization or educational attainment. Among school-age populations, no association was found between country GDP per capita and country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity. In those studies that assessed total physical activity (which also includes occupational and transport physical activity), no association with country GDP per capita was observed. Clear differences in national leisure-time physical activity levels throughout Europe may be a consequence of economic development. Lack of economic development of some countries in Europe may make increasing leisure-time physical activity more difficult. Further examination of the link between country GDP per capita and national physical activity levels (across

  15. OBLIMAP 2.0 : A fast climate model-ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reerink, Thomas J.; Jan Van De Berg, Willem; Van De Wal, Roderik S W

    2016-01-01

    This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM) and an ice sheet model (ISM) in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfa

  16. Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jinseob Kim; Jong-Hun Kim; Hae-Kwan Cheong; Ho Kim; Yasushi Honda; Mina Ha; Masahiro Hashizume; Joel Kolam; Kasis Inape

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data...

  17. Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Stilianakis, Nikolaos I.; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and ...

  18. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  19. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  20. Fever in trauma patients: evaluation of risk factors, including traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengualid, Victoria; Talari, Goutham; Rubin, David; Albaeni, Aiham; Ciubotaru, Ronald L; Berger, Judith

    2015-03-01

    The role of fever in trauma patients remains unclear. Fever occurs as a response to release of cytokines and prostaglandins by white blood cells. Many factors, including trauma, can trigger release of these factors. To determine whether (1) fever in the first 48 hours is related to a favorable outcome in trauma patients and (2) fever is more common in patients with head trauma. Retrospective study of trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit for at least 2 days. Data were analyzed by using multivariate analysis. Of 162 patients studied, 40% had fever during the first 48 hours. Febrile patients had higher mortality rates than did afebrile patients. When adjusted for severity of injuries, fever did not correlate with mortality. Neither the incidence of fever in the first 48 hours after admission to the intensive care unit nor the number of days febrile in the unit differed between patients with and patients without head trauma (traumatic brain injury). About 70% of febrile patients did not have a source found for their fever. Febrile patients without an identified source of infection had lower peak white blood cell counts, lower maximum body temperature, and higher minimum platelet counts than did febrile patients who had an infectious source identified. The most common infection was pneumonia. No relationship was found between the presence of fever during the first 48 hours and mortality. Patients with traumatic brain injury did not have a higher incidence of fever than did patients without traumatic brain injury. About 30% of febrile patients had an identifiable source of infection. Further studies are needed to understand the origin and role of fever in trauma patients. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  1. Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Glenn L Sia

    2008-06-01

    Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.

  2. Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard;

    2010-01-01

    The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors...... to be reflected in national adaptation strategies in the region....

  3. Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard

    2010-01-01

    The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors as ...

  4. Health Promotion Behavior of Chinese International Students in Korea Including Acculturation Factors: A Structural Equation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Jung; Yoo, Il Young

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain the health promotion behavior of Chinese international students in Korea using a structural equation model including acculturation factors. A survey using self-administered questionnaires was employed. Data were collected from 272 Chinese students who have resided in Korea for longer than 6 months. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The p value of final model is .31. The fitness parameters of the final model such as goodness of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, normed fit index, non-normed fit index, and comparative fit index were more than .95. Root mean square of residual and root mean square error of approximation also met the criteria. Self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturative stress and acculturation level had direct effects on health promotion behavior of the participants and the model explained 30.0% of variance. The Chinese students in Korea with higher self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturation level, and lower acculturative stress reported higher health promotion behavior. The findings can be applied to develop health promotion strategies for this population. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region – a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Hedlund

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. Objectives: To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. Methods: A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. Results: In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14, the rest from Sweden (n=6, Finland (n=4, Norway (n=2, Russia (n=2, and Alaska, US (n=1. Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. Conclusions: More studies of high quality

  6. Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region--a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and

  7. Interactions of climatic factors affecting milk yield and composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, A.K.; Rodriguez, L.A.; Wilcox, C.J.; Collider, R.J.; Bachman, K.C.; Martin, F.G.

    1988-01-01

    Objectives were to evaluate effects of interactions of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and solar radiation on milk yield and constituent traits. Effects of climate variables and their interactions were significant but small in most cases. Second order regression models were developed for several variables. Six were examined in detail: Holstein and Jersey milk yields, Holstein fat and Feulgen-DNA reflectance percent, and Jersey protein percent and yield. Maximum temperature had greatest influence on each response, followed by minimum relative humidity and solar radiation. Optimum conditions for milk production were at maximum temperatures below 19. 4/degree/C, increasing solar radiation, and minimum relative humidity between 33.4 and 78.2% (cool sunny days, moderate humidity). Maximum Holstein fat percent of 3.5% was predicted for maximum temperatures below 30.8/degree/C, minimum relative humidity below 89%, and solar radiation below 109 Langleys; actual mean Holstein fat percent was 3. 35%. Optimum climatic conditions for Jersey protein percent were at maximum temperature of 10.6/degree/C with solar radiation at 300 Langleys and relative humidity at 16% (cool sunny days, low humidity). Because noteworthy interactions existed between climate effects, response surface methodology was suitable for determining optimum climatic conditions for milk production.

  8. The importance of climatic factors and outliers in predicting regional monthly campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisent, J; Seaver, W; Odoi, A; Rohrbach, B

    2014-11-01

    Incidence of Campylobacter infection exhibits a strong seasonal component and regional variations in temperate climate zones. Forecasting the risk of infection regionally may provide clues to identify sources of transmission affected by temperature and precipitation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess temporal patterns and differences in campylobacteriosis risk among nine climatic divisions of Georgia, USA, (2) compare univariate forecasting models that analyze campylobacteriosis risk over time with those that incorporate temperature and/or precipitation, and (3) investigate alternatives to supposedly random walk series and non-random occurrences that could be outliers. Temporal patterns of campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia were visually and statistically assessed. Univariate and multivariable forecasting models were used to predict the risk of campylobacteriosis and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) was used for evaluating training (1999-2007) and holdout (2008) samples. Statistical control charting and rolling holdout periods were investigated to better understand the effect of outliers and improve forecasts. State and division level campylobacteriosis risk exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring between June and August, and there were significant associations between campylobacteriosis risk, precipitation, and temperature. State and combined division forecasts were better than divisions alone, and models that included climate variables were comparable to univariate models. While rolling holdout techniques did not improve predictive ability, control charting identified high-risk time periods that require further investigation. These findings are important in (1) determining how climatic factors affect environmental sources and reservoirs of Campylobacter spp. and (2) identifying regional spikes in the risk of human Campylobacter infection and their underlying causes.

  9. Institutional factors and opportunities for adapting European forest management to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouriaud, L.; Marzano, M.; Lexer, M.; Clerkx, A.P.P.M.; Hengeveld, G.M.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Schelhaas, M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the fact that the institutional environment is acknowledged to influence the implementation of regional adaptations of forest management to climate change, there are few empirical studies addressing the institutional factors and opportunities of adaptation. Using Ostrom’s institutional

  10. Climate vs. soil factors in local adaptation of two common plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Macel, M.; Lawson, C.S.; Mortimer, S.R.; Smilauerova, M.; Bischoff, A.; Crémieux, L.; Dolezal, J.; Edwards, A.R.; Lanta, V.; Bezemer, T.M.; Putten, van der W.H.; Igual, J.M.; Rodriguez-Barrueco, C.; Müller-Schärer, H.; Steinger, T.

    2007-01-01

    Evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes. To understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection. At a continental scale, variation in climate

  11. The Relative Importance of Three Specific Climatic Factors on North American Breeding Bird Species Richness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Lin, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Understanding of the relationships between bird species and environment facilitates protecting avian biodiversity and maintaining nature sustaining. However, the effects of many climatic factors on bird richness have not been fully grasped. To fill this gap, this study investigated the relationships between the richness of three typical North American breeding bird species and three climatic factors at the monthly scale. Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data during 1967-2014, the relationships between the numbers of Carolina wren, Cerulean warbler, and Red-bellied woodpecker and the three climatic factors of precipitation, vapor pressure, and potential evapotranspiration were examined using the method of Pearson linear regression analysis. The results indicated that the three climatic factors have correlations with the richness of the breeding bird species but in different modes, e.g., strong correlations for the non-migratory species but weak correlations for the migratory species.

  12. The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Alexander E; Tolpin, Vladimir A; Gridneva, Kristina A; Titkov, Anton V; Platonova, Olga V; Kolyasnikova, Nadezhda M; Busani, Luca; Rezza, Giovanni

    2014-01-23

    Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010-2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.

  13. The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander E. Platonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces, yet in 2010–2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model. WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.

  14. Consensus achievement of leadership, organisational and individual factors that influence safety climate: Implications for nursing management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Shelly A; Jones, Jacqueline; Verran, Joyce A

    2017-09-21

    To validate a framework of factors that influence the relationship of transformational leadership and safety climate, and to enable testing of safety chain factors by generating hypotheses regarding their mediating and moderating effects. Understanding the patient safety chain and mechanisms by which leaders affect a strong climate of safety is essential to transformational leadership practice, education, and research. A systematic review of leadership and safety literature was used to develop an organising framework of factors proposed to influence the climate of safety. A panel of 25 international experts in leadership and safety engaged a three-round modified Delphi study with Likert-scored surveys. Eighty per cent of participating experts from six countries were retained to the final survey round. Consensus (>66% agreement) was achieved on 40 factors believed to influence safety climate in the acute care setting. Consensus regarding specific factors that play important roles in an organisation's climate of safety can be reached. Generally, the demonstration of leadership commitment to safety is key to cultivating a culture of patient safety. Transformational nurse leaders should consider and employ all three categories of factors in daily leadership activities and decision-making to drive a strong climate of patient safety. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Effects of climate factors on the height increment of poplar protection forest in the riverbank field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIHai-mei; HEXing-yuan; WANGKui-ling

    2004-01-01

    Based on the data of stand investigation and stem analysis, the effects of climate factors on the poplar protection forest increment in the riverbank field of the Dalinghe and Xiaolinghe rivers of Liaoning Province, China were studied by stepwise regression procedure and grey system theories and methods. A regression model reflecting the correlation between the height increment of poplar protection forest and climatic factors was developed. The order of grey relevance for the effect of climatic factors on the height increment of poplar protection forest is" light>water>heat, and it could be interpreted that the poplar increment was mainly influenced by light factor, water factor, and heat factor. This result will provide scientific basis for the intensive cultivation and regeneration of the poplar protection forest in riverbank field in similar regions in China.

  16. In-situ Modelisation of a Greenhouse Climate Including Sensible Heat, Water Vapour and CO2 Balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bibi-Triki N.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available While thermal structures such as greenhouses are complex to model under transient conditions because of coupled heat and mass (H2O and CO2 exchanges between their different parts, systems theory allows a simple analysis of the input/output behaviour of the model. In particular, parameters of the reduced dynamic models can be derived from in-situ measurements on these systems. This paper describes an application of the systems approach to a greenhouse climate model which incorporates CO2 balance, crop transpiration and photosynthesis and the effects of heating, CO2 enrichment, natural ventilation and evaporative cooling. In a first stage, system parameters such as the equivalent thermal mass, the wind dependent coefficient of natural ventilation and the various heat exchange coefficients were identified in situ from sequences of input-output data concerning the heat and water vapour balance, recorded over the crop production period from December to July. Good agreement between measured and computed values of air temperature, air humidity was observed. In a second stage, we have considered simultaneously the sensible heat, water vapour and CO2 exchanges and tested the model against experimental data measured using a commercial greenhouse climate control computer. The identified values of the physical and physiological parameters are close the theoretical values and the accuracy of temperature, humidity and CO2 content is rather good.

  17. Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phung, Dung; Huang, Cunrui; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Nguyen, Minh; Nguyen, Nga Huy; Manh, Cuong Do; Nguyen, Trung Hieu

    2015-09-01

    The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

  18. Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockaby, Graeme; Noori, Navideh; Morse, Wayde; Zipperer, Wayne; Kalin, Latif; Governo, Robin; Sawant, Rajesh; Ricker, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.

  19. Factorization of Radiative Leptonic Decays of $B^-$ and $D^-$ Mesons Including the Soft Photon Region

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Ji-Chong

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we study the radiative leptonic decays of $B^-$ and $D^-$ mesons using factorization approach. Factorization is proved to be valid explicitly at 1-loop level at any order of $O(\\Lambda _{\\rm QCD}\\left/m_Q\\right.)$. We consider the contribution in the soft photon region that $E_{\\gamma} \\sim \\left. \\Lambda^2 _{\\rm QCD} /\\right. m_Q$. The numerical results shows that, the soft photon region is very important for both the $B$ and $D$ mesons. The branching ratios of $B\\to \\gamma e\

  20. Situational effects of the school factors included in the dynamic model of educational effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Creerners, Bert; Kyriakides, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    We present results of a longitudinal study in which 50 schools, 113 classes and 2,542 Cypriot primary students participated. We tested the validity of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness and especially its assumption that the impact of school factors depends on the current situation of th

  1. Latina Resilience in Higher Education: Contributing Factors Including Seasonal Farmworker Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Cristina Santamaria; McCain, Terrence; Gomez-Vilchis, Veronica

    2013-01-01

    Many Latina students overcome multiple obstacles to earn university degrees. Five married Latina women with children and seasonal farmworker backgrounds are the focus of this study which is analyzed through resiliency theory to understand factors contributing to their academic resilience. Variables connected to academic success are explored and…

  2. Influence of climate factors on Vibrio cholerae dynamics in the Pearl River estuary, South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Yujuan; Gong, Jianhua; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao; Li, Baisheng; Ke, Changwen

    2014-06-01

    Current research has seldom focused on the quantitative relationships between Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae) and climate factors owing to the complexities and high cost of field observation in the aquatic environment. This study has focused on the relationships between V. cholerae and climate factors based on linear regression method and data partition method. Data gathered from 2008 to 2009 in the Pearl River estuary, South China, were adopted. Positive rate of V. cholerae was correlated closely with monthly climate factors of water temperature and air temperature, respectively in 2009. Quarterly data analysis from 2008 to 2009 showed that there existed seasonal characteristic for V. cholerae. Positive rate of V. cholerae was correlated positively with quarterly climate factors of land surface temperature, pH, water temperature, air temperature and rainfall, respectively and negatively with quarterly air pressure. Partition data analysis in 2009 showed that there existed geography region characteristic for V. cholerae. V. cholerae dynamics was closely correlated to climate factors in the downstream area. However, it was more greatly affected by human geography factors in the urban area. Positive annual rate of V. cholerae was higher in the downstream area than in the urban area both in 2008 and 2009. At last, a cellular automaton model was used to simulate V. cholerae diffusion downstream, and the distribution of V. cholerae obtained from this model was similar to that obtained from the field observations.

  3. Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Four Components including Acetaminophen by Taget Factor Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    UV Spectrophotometric Target Factor Analysis (TFA) was used for the simultaneous determination of four components (acetaminophen, guuaifenesin, caffeine, Chlorphenamine maleate) in cough syrup. The computer program of TFA is based on VC++ language. The difficulty of overlapping of absorption spectra of four compounds was overcome by this procedure. The experimental results show that the average recovery of each component is all in the range from 98.9% to 106.8% and each component obtains satisfactory results without any pre-separation.

  4. Climaite - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation study: set up and approaches for data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    N. Mikkelsen, Teis; Beier, Claus; Schmidt, Inger Kappel;

    In a new Danish climate change related field scale experiment, CLIMAITE, we are investigating the impacts of individual and multiple simultaneous global changes on ecosystem processes and functioning in a Danish semi natural grassland vegetation dominated by Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna...... vulgaris. The Climaite experiment involves three global change factors: elevated CO2 (510 ppm), elevated temperature (+ 1-2 C) and altered precipitation (1-1.5 months extended drought in May-July) all compared to ambient conditions in a complete factorial design. The experiment includes six replicates......, the physiological status of plants, soil water chemistry and emission of green house gasses. The CO2 is enhanced all year around during daylight hours in 6 plots by the use of a FACE system (F. Miglietta design). Temperature elevation is achieved by night time warming where IR reflective curtains automatically...

  5. The N(H2/I(CO Conversion Factor: A Treatment that Includes Radiative Transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. F. Wall

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un tratamiento que explica mejor el factor de conversión N(H2=I(CO y que incluye la transferencia radiativa. A primera vista, incluir la transferencia radiativa parece superfluo para una línea óptimamente gruesa como CO J = 1 0. No obstante, dado que el medio interestelar es inhomogéneo, los fragmentos de gas (es decir, grumos todavía pueden ser óptimamente delgadas hacia sus bordes y en las alas de los pérfiles de la línea. El tratamiento estadístico de Martin et al. (1984 de la transferencia radiativa a través una nube molecular con grumos se usa para derivar una expresión para el factor de conversión que su- pera los defectos de las explicaciones más tradicionales basadas en Dickman et al. (1986. Por un lado, el tratamiento presentado aquí posiblemente representa un avance importante al entender el factor de conversión N(H2=I(CO pero, por otro lado, tiene sus propios defectos, que son discutidos aquí brevemente.

  6. Preoperative Serum Interleukin-6 Is a Potential Prognostic Factor for Colorectal Cancer, including Stage II Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuyoshi Shiga

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To evaluate the prognostic significance of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6 in colorectal cancer (CRC. Patients and Methods. Preoperative serum IL-6 was measured in 233 CRC patients and 13 healthy controls. Relationships between IL-6 and various clinicopathological factors were evaluated, and the overall survival (OS and disease-free survival (DFS rates according to IL-6 status were calculated for all patients and according to disease stage. Results. The mean IL-6 level was 6.6 pg/mL in CRC patients and 2.6 pg/mL in healthy controls. Using a cutoff of 6.3 pg/mL, obtained using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, 57 patients had a high IL-6 level. The mean value was higher for stage II disease than for stage III disease. IL-6 status correlated with C-reactive protein (CRP and carcinoembryonic antigen levels, obstruction, and pT4 disease. The OS differed according to the IL-6 status for all patients, whereas the DFS differed for all patients and for those with stage II disease. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that pT4 disease was an independent risk factor for recurrence in all CRC patients; IL-6, CRP, and pT4 were significant risk factors in stage II patients. Conclusions. The preoperative IL-6 level influences the risk of CRC recurrence.

  7. Current Changes in Pubertal Timing: Revised Vision in Relation with Environmental Factors Including Endocrine Disruptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parent, Anne-Simone; Franssen, Delphine; Fudvoye, Julie; Pinson, Anneline; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to revise some common views on changes in pubertal timing. This revision is based on recent epidemiological findings on the clinical indicators of pubertal timing and data on environmental factor effects and underlying mechanisms. A current advancement in timing of female puberty is usually emphasized. It appears, however, that timing is also changing in males. Moreover, the changes are towards earliness for initial pubertal stages and towards lateness for final stages in both sexes. Such observations indicate the complexity of environmental influences on pubertal timing. The mechanisms of changes in pubertal timing may involve both the central neuroendocrine control and peripheral effects at tissues targeted by gonadal steroids. While sufficient energy availability is a clue to the mechanism of pubertal development, changes in the control of both energy balance and reproduction may vary under the influence of common determinants such as endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). These effects can take place right before puberty as well as much earlier, during fetal and neonatal life. Finally, environmental factors can interact with genetic factors in determining changes in pubertal timing. Therefore, the variance in pubertal timing is no longer to be considered under absolutely separate control by environmental and genetic determinants. Some recommendations are provided for evaluation of EDC impact in the management of pubertal disorders and for possible reduction of EDC exposure along the precautionary principle.

  8. Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, William J; Huang, Yongsong; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Anderson, N John

    2011-06-14

    West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  9. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  10. Land cover or climate? In search of dominant factors inducing groundwater recharge and fen hydrology in European scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grygoruk, Mateusz; Kotowski, Wiktor

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater recharge plays the crucial role in development and stability of fens. It was hypothesized that the mid- and late-Holocene acceleration of fens' development in Europe could have been induced by changes in land cover: decreasing areas of forests resulting from the expanding agriculture have enhanced groundwater recharge by decreasing evapotranspiration and interception and promoting infiltration. However, regardless human-related changes of the landscape, recorded climatic fluctuations could also be considered as drivers of changing groundwater recharge that affects fen stability and development. Nowadays, when up to 90% of European wetlands is considered degraded, assessing vulnerability of groundwater recharge to changing landscape and climate is of the crucial importance for setting fen restoration and management strategies. Main goal of our study was to assess the magnitude of changes in groundwater recharge estimation resulting from modelled changes of the landscape and climatic features in >300 fens located in Poland, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, UK and Norway. In our approach we (1) delineated the most probable extents of catchments of particular fens analysed, (2) assumed hypothetical and the most probable changes of land cover within these catchments, (3) assumed the most probable ranges of climatic changes in each of the catchments including historical reconstructions (Holocene) and future projections (A1B scenario, CSIRO:MK3 and UKMO:HADCM3 GCM-RCM ensembles), (4) developed, tested and calibrated automatic, GIS-based groundwater recharge calculation algorithm to be applied in the study, (5) calculated groundwater recharge in multiple probable combinations of landscape and climatic conditions and (6) performed statistical analysis in order to reveal whether the climate or landscape changes were the dominant factors that could have probably influenced groundwater recharge in catchments of fens analysed. We revealed that in the case of 80% of

  11. Nuclear monopole charge form factor calculation for relativistic models including center-of-mass corrections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avancini, S.S.; Marinelli, J.R. [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Florianopolis, Depto de Fisica - CFM, Florianopolis (Brazil); Carlson, B.V. [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, Sao Jose dos Campos (Brazil)

    2013-06-15

    Relativistic models for finite nuclei contain spurious center-of-mass motion in most applications for the nuclear many-body problem, where the nuclear wave function is taken as a single Slater determinant within a space-fixed frame description. We use the Peierls-Yoccoz projection method, previously developed for relativistic approaches together with a reparametrization of the coupling constants that fits binding energies and charge radius and apply our results to calculate elastic electron scattering monopole charge form factors for light nuclei. (orig.)

  12. OBLIMAP 2.0: a fast climate model-ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2016-11-01

    This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM) and an ice sheet model (ISM) in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfaces of the GCM and ISM grid differ, both grids may be irregularly spaced and the ratio of the grids is allowed to differ largely. OBLIMAP's stand-alone version is able to map data sets that differ in various aspects on the same ISM grid. Each grid may either coincide with the surface of a sphere, an ellipsoid or a flat plane, while the grid types might differ. Re-projection of, for example, ISM data sets is also facilitated. This is demonstrated by relevant applications concerning the major ice caps. As the stand-alone version also applies to the reverse mapping direction, it can be used as an offline coupler. Furthermore, OBLIMAP 2.0 is an embeddable GCM-ISM coupler, suited for high-frequency online coupled experiments. A new fast scan method is presented for structured grids as an alternative for the former time-consuming grid search strategy, realising a performance gain of several orders of magnitude and enabling the mapping of high-resolution data sets with a much larger number of grid nodes. Further, a highly flexible masked mapping option is added. The limitation of the fast scan method with respect to unstructured and adaptive grids is discussed together with a possible future parallel Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation.

  13. SUBSTANTIATION OF THE COST OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION INCLUDING THE FACTOR OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF TERRITORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAIATS Yi. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement. For planning and organization of urban construction is necessary to analyze the use of areas. Territorial resources of the city, being used for construction and other urban purposes, consists of plots of land: disposable, reserved and undeveloped in previous years of construction in progress; residential districts and blocks of obsolete housing fund; industrial and municipal and warehouse enterprises being used irrationally or stopped to work; the defence department, where the amortized warehouses and other main funds are that are not used by purpose; agricultural enterprises where the obsolete industrial funds, haying, nurseries, greenhouses. The number of free areas suitable for future urban development is extremely limited. However a considerable part of the territories of almost all functional zones is used inefficiently. Purpose. Formalization of a factor of investment attractiveness of territories for the further identification and research of the connection between it and the cost of housing construction is necessary. Conclusion. The identification of regularities of influence of the factor of investment attractiveness of territories on the cost of construction of high-rise buildings allow to obtain a quantitative estimate of this effect and can be used in the development of the methodology of substantiation of the expediency and effectiveness of the implementation of highrise construction projects, based on organizational and technological aspects.

  14. Modelling of safety barriers including human and organisational factors to improve process safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Thommesen, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    explosion, and the Mont Blanc Tunnel Fire, such an approach may have helped to maintain the integrity of the designed provisions against major deviations resulting in these disasters. In order to make this paradigm operational, safety management and in particular risk assessment tools need to be refined....... A valuable approach is the inclusion of human and organisational factors into the simulation of the reliability of the technical system using event trees and fault trees and the concept of safety barriers. This has been demonstrated e.g. in the former European research project ARAMIS (Accidental Risk...... Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS, see Salvi et al 2006). ARAMIS employs the bow-tie approach to modelling hazardous scenarios, and it suggests the outcome of auditing safety management to be connected to a semi-quantitative assessment of the quality of safety barriers. ARAMIS discriminates a number...

  15. Climatic fluctuations as a significant contributing factor for volcanic collapses. Evidence from Mexico during the Late Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Bernal-Uruchurtu, J. P.; Carrasco, G.

    2013-05-01

    Climate oscillations have significantly contributed to the planet's evolution, including volcanic activity. Major glaciations have been considered not only as a triggering mechanism for large magmatic eruptions but also inducing volcano instability. Generally, volcano instability can be inferred from detailed volcanological and structural studies of a volcano and its associated depositional sequence, but the triggering mechanism has been always difficult to infer. In this paper, we present evidence of how climatic variations during the Late Pleistocene could have forced sector collapses of the main Mexican stratovolcanoes and enhanced the mobility of associated massive flows inducing the transformation of debris avalanche into debris flows. In particular, the climatic record based on atmospheric moisture content from robustly dated lake record from Guatemala and a U/Th dated speleothem from New Mexico are used here as indicators of summer and winter precipitation. Depositional sequences associated with Late Pleistocene sector collapses of Volcan de Colima, Nevado de Toluca, Citlaltepetl (Pico de Orizaba) and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are here analyzed. Comparing the timing of the event with the climatic record, a combination of summer and/or winter pluvial conditions could have forced and triggered the failure of already unstable volcanoes, even during glacier advances (as for the Citlaltepetl event). Independently of the main cause of the volcano instability (magmatic or tectonic) it is important to highlight that the climatic factor played an important role in enhancing the volcano instability and promoted the lateral transformation of debris avalanches, which under dry conditions would have affected more limited areas.

  16. Contribution of Environmental Risk Factors Including Lifestyle to Inequalities Noncommunicable (Chronic Diseases such as Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elzbieta Grochowska Niedworok

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Health inequalities: differences in health status or in the distribution of health determinants between different population groups. Some health inequalities are attributable to biological variations or free choice and others are attributable to the external environment and conditions mainly outside the control of the individuals concerned. 347 million people worldwide have diabetes. In 2012 an estimated 1.5 million deaths were directly caused by diabetes. More than 80% of diabetes deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. WHO projects that diabetes will be the 7th leading cause of death in 2030. Healthy diet, regular physical activity and maintaining a normal body weight can prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes. Risk factors: 1. Age- the prevalence of diabetes rises steeply with age: *one in twenty people over the age of 65 have diabetes, *and this rises to one in five people over the age of 85 years. The diagnosis of diabetes may be delayed in older people, with symptoms of diabetes being wrongly attributed to ageing. 2. Ethnic: type 2 diabetes is up to six times more common in people of South Asian descent and up to three times more common in those of African and African-Caribbean descent then in the white population. It is also more common in people of Chinese descent and other non-Caucasian groups. 3. Gender: the frequency of diabetes usually is higher in men than in women. This may be because gender compounds other aspects of inequality- women often bear the brunt of poverty, and socio-economic differences in the prevalence of diabetes are more marked for women, probably because of differences in smoking rates, food choices and the prevalence of obesity. 4. Overweight/Obesity: every 1 kg/m2 more causes increase risk: cardiovascular diseases 2%, coronary artery disease- 3% , myocardial infarction- 5% , heart failure- 5% , peripheral vascular disease- 5%. Health inqualities important in diabetes -- modifiable:  social

  17. Agricultural Policy, Climate Factors and Grain Output:Evidence From Household Survey Data in Rural China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Yong-fu; WU Zhi-gang; ZHU Tie-hui; YANG Lei; MA Guo-ying; Chien Hsiao-ping

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates a stochastic frontier function using a panel data set that includes 4 961 farmer households for the period of 2005-2009 to decompose the growth of grain production and the total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the farmer level. The empirical results show that the major contributor to the grain output growth for farmers is input growth and that its average contribution accounts for 60.92%of farmer’s grain production growth in the period of 2006-2009, whereas the average contributions sourced from TFP growth and residuals are only 17.30 and 21.78%, respectively. The growth of intermediate inputs is a top contributor with an average contribution of 44.46%, followed by the planted area (18.16%), investment in fixed assets (1.05%), and labor input (-2.75%), indicating that the contribution from the farmer’s input growth is mainly due to the growth of intermediate inputs and that the decline in labor inputs has become an obstacle for farmers in seeking grain output growth. Among the elements consisting of TFP growth, the contribution of technical progress is the largest (32.04%), followed by grain subsidies (8.55%), the average monthly temperature (4.26%), the average monthly precipitation (-0.88%), the adjusted scale effect (-5.66%), and growth in technical efficiency (-21.01%). In general, the contribution of climate factors and agricultural policy factor are positive and significant.

  18. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; DeSanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R.; Kersebaum, K. Christian

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  19. Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-02-15

    This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: -0.01%-0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57-8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, -0.57% and -4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

  20. Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinseob Kim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: −0.01%–0.50%, and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30. Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, −0.57% and −4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%. There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

  1. The effect on climate change impacts for building products when including the timing of greenhouse gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard D Bergman

    2012-01-01

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap infrared radiation emitting from the Earth’s surface to generate the “greenhouse effect” thus keeping the planet warm. Many natural activities including rotting vegetation emit GHGs such as carbon dioxide to produce this natural affect. However, in the last 200 years or so, human activity has increased the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs...

  2. Hydrogeomorphic Classification of Wetlands on Mt. Desert Island, Maine, Including Hydrologic Susceptibility Factors for Wetlands in Acadia National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Martha G.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a hydrogeomorphic (HGM) classification system for wetlands greater than 0.4 hectares (ha) on Mt. Desert Island, Maine, and applied this classification using map-scale data to more than 1,200 mapped wetland units on the island. In addition, two hydrologic susceptibility factors were defined for a subset of these wetlands, using 11 variables derived from landscape-scale characteristics of the catchment areas of these wetlands. The hydrologic susceptibility factors, one related to the potential hydrologic pathways for contaminants and the other to the susceptibility of wetlands to disruptions in water supply from projected future changes in climate, were used to indicate which wetlands (greater than 1 ha) in Acadia National Park (ANP) may warrant further investigation or monitoring. The HGM classification system consists of 13 categories: Riverine-Upper Perennial, Riverine-Nonperennial, Riverine- Tidal, Depressional-Closed, Depressional-Semiclosed, Depressional-Open, Depressional-No Ground-Water Input, Mineral Soil Flat, Organic Soil Flat, Tidal Fringe, Lacustrine Fringe, Slope, and Hilltop/Upper Hillslope. A dichotomous key was developed to aid in the classification of wetlands. The National Wetland Inventory maps produced by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service provided the wetland mapping units used for this classification. On the basis of topographic map information and geographic information system (GIS) layers at a scale of 1:24,000 or larger, 1,202 wetland units were assigned a preliminary HGM classification. Two of the 13 HGM classes (Riverine-Tidal and Depressional-No Ground-Water Input) were not assigned to any wetlands because criteria for determining those classes are not available at that map scale, and must be determined by more site-specific information. Of the 1,202 wetland polygons classified, which cover 1,830 ha in ANP, 327 were classified as Slope, 258 were

  3. Dengue vector dynamics (Aedes aegypti) influenced by climate and social factors in Ecuador: implications for targeted control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart Ibarra, Anna M; Ryan, Sadie J; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Angel

    2013-01-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish.

  4. Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

  5. Dengue vector dynamics (Aedes aegypti influenced by climate and social factors in Ecuador: implications for targeted control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Stewart Ibarra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011, conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in

  6. Geographical distribution for malignant neoplasm of the pancreas in relation to selected climatic factors in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okada Masafumi

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malignant neoplasm of the pancreas has become one of the leading causes of death from malignant neoplasm in Japan (the 5th in 2003. Although smoking is believed to be a risk factor, other risk factors remain unclear. Mortality from malignant neoplasm of the pancreas tends to be higher in northern Japan and in northern European countries. A recent study reported that standardized mortality ratios (SMRs for malignant neoplasm of the pancreas were negatively correlated to global solar radiation level. People residing in regions with lower solar radiation and lower temperatures may be at higher risk of development of malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the relationship between SMRs for malignant neoplasm of the pancreas and climatic factors, such as the amount of global solar radiation and the daily maximum temperature in Japan. Results The study used multiple linear regression models. Number of deaths and demographic data from 1998 to 2002 were used for the calculation of SMR. We employed mesh climatic data for Japan published in 2006 by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Regression coefficients for the amount of global solar radiation and the daily maximum temperature in males were -4.35 (p = 0.00034 and -2.81 (p Conclusion This study suggested that low solar radiation and low temperature might relate to the increasing risk of malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. Use of group data has a limitation in the case of evaluating environmental factors affecting health, since the impact of climatic factors on the human body varies according to individual lifestyles and occupations. Use of geographical mesh climatic data, however, proved useful as an index of risk or beneficial factors in a small study area. Further research using individual data is necessary to elucidate the relationship between climatic factors and the development of malignant neoplasm of the pancreas.

  7. Combined climate factors alleviate changes in gross soil nitrogen dynamics in heathlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjorsne, Anna-Karin; Rutting, Tobias; Ambus, Per

    2014-01-01

    of exposure to three climate change factors, i.e. warming, elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) and summer drought, applied both in isolation and in combination. By conducting laboratory N-15 tracing experiments we show that warming increased both gross N mineralization and nitrification rates. In contrast, gross...

  8. Perception of Transfer Climate Factors in the Macro and Micro Organizational Work Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diggs, Byron Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    This qualitative study was designed to provide insight on the perceived transfer climate factors in the macro and micro organizational work environment that may influence an employee's willingness to transfer what was learned in a training program to the job. More specifically, the purpose of the study was to delineate descriptive patterns and…

  9. Perception of Transfer Climate Factors in the Macro and Micro Organizational Work Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diggs, Byron Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    This qualitative study was designed to provide insight on the perceived transfer climate factors in the macro and micro organizational work environment that may influence an employee's willingness to transfer what was learned in a training program to the job. More specifically, the purpose of the study was to delineate descriptive patterns and…

  10. Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jee, Hee-Jung; Cho, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yu Jin; Choi, Nari; An, Hyonggin; Lee, Heon-Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea. Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM. Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m(2) after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Hospital safety climate, psychosocial risk factors and needlestick injuries in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Derek R; Muto, Takashi; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Ishikawa, Yumiko; Sayama, Shizue; Yoshida, Atsushi; Townley-Jones, Maureen

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the interactions between safety climate, psychosocial issues and Needlestick and Sharps Injuries (NSI), a cross-sectional study was undertaken among nurses at a university teaching hospital in Japan (89% response rate). NSI were correlated with various aspects of hospital safety climate including supporting one another at work, the protection of staff against blood-borne diseases being a high management priority, managers doing their part to protect staff from blood-borne disease, having unsafe work practices corrected by supervisors, having the opportunity to use safety equipment to protect against blood-borne disease exposures, having an uncluttered work area, and having minimal conflict within their department. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated the importance of hospital safety climate in Japanese health care practice, particularly its relationship with NSI. Although the provision of safer devices remains critical in preventing injuries, ensuring a positive safety climate will also be essential in meeting these important challenges for nurses' occupational health.

  12. Impact of climate change and other factors on emerging arbovirus diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, E A; Higgs, S

    2009-02-01

    While some skeptics remain unconvinced that global climate change is a reality, there is no doubt that during the past 50 years or so, patterns of emerging arbovirus diseases have changed significantly. Can this be attributed to climate change? Climate is a major factor in determining: (1) the geographic and temporal distribution of arthropods; (2) characteristics of arthropod life cycles; (3) dispersal patterns of associated arboviruses; (4) the evolution of arboviruses; and (5) the efficiency with which they are transmitted from arthropods to vertebrate hosts. Thus, under the influence of increasing temperatures and rainfall through warming of the oceans, and alteration of the natural cycles that stabilise climate, one is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that arboviruses will continue to emerge in new regions. For example, we cannot ignore the unexpected but successful establishment of chikungunya fever in northern Italy, the sudden appearance of West Nile virus in North America, the increasing frequency of Rift Valley fever epidemics in the Arabian Peninsula, and very recently, the emergence of Bluetongue virus in northern Europe. In this brief review we ask the question, are these diseases emerging because of climate change or do other factors play an equal or even more important role in their emergence?

  13. Impact of Outliers Arising from Unintended and Unknowingly Included Subpopulations on the Decisions about the Number of Factors in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2012-01-01

    There is a lack of research on the effects of outliers on the decisions about the number of factors to retain in an exploratory factor analysis, especially for outliers arising from unintended and unknowingly included subpopulations. The purpose of the present research was to investigate how outliers from an unintended and unknowingly included…

  14. Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming’an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

    2017-01-01

    Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P 2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes. PMID:28095437

  15. Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cui-Jing; Shen, Ju-Pei; Sun, Yi-Fei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhang, Li-Mei; Yang, Zhong-Ling; Han, Hong-Yan; Wan, Shi-Qiang; He, Ji-Zheng

    2017-04-01

    Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Zonal Differences in Correlation Patterns Between Soil Organic Carbon and Climate Factors at Multi-extent

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN Falyu; SHI Xuezheng; XU Shengxiang; YU Dongsheng; WANG Dandan

    2016-01-01

    Studying the relationship between climate factors and soil organic carbon (SOC) is vitally important.However,how SOC responses to climate (temperature and precipitation) at cohesive extents is poorly studied.Two transects of approximately the same length (transect P and transect T) were selected to examine the variation of SOC content in relation to mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP).The coefficients of partial correlation between SOC density and MAT (Rt) and MAP (Rp) were determined to quantify the relationships between SOC density and the two climate factors.The results indicated that for transect T,Rt was statistically significant once the extent level was greater than or equal to two fundamental extent units,while for transect P,Rp showed statistical significance only at extent levels which were greater than two fundamental extent units.At the same extent levels but in different transects,Rts exhibited no zonal difference,but Rps did once the extent level was greater than two fundamental extent units.Therefore,to study the relationship between SOC density and different climate factors,different minimum extent levels should be examined.The results of this paper could deepen the understanding of the impacts that SOC pool has on terrestrial ecosystem and global carbon cycling.

  17. Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming'an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

    2017-01-01

    Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

  18. The onset of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, including the K/X event, at Branch Stream, Clarence Valley, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotnick, B. S.; Dickens, G. R.; Hollis, C. J.; Crampton, J. S.; Strong, P.; Dallanave, E.; Philips, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), lasting from ~53-50 Ma, has been characterized as the warmest sustained interval through the Cenozoic. It was comprised of a broad temperature maximum with elevated atmospheric pCO2, noticeable shifts in carbon cycling, and a variety of faunal and floral changes. This included one, and likely additional, brief (CIEs) have been coupled to massive fluxes of 13C-depleted carbon into the exogenic system and global climate change. However, much about EECO remains unknown because of a lack of detailed and coupled proxy records; we are currently generating useful records to better characterize lithological and geochemical signatures of EECO. Here, we help rectify this problem by presenting a new lithologic and carbon isotopic record for a ~84-m-thick section of early Eocene upper slope calcareous-rich sediments, now lithified and exposed along Branch Stream, New Zealand. Comparison of new carbon isotopic and lithologic records of this greatly expanded section to nearby Mead Stream identifies multiple negative CIEs in short succession and generally more marl during lowermost EECO (~53.3-51.7 Ma), with the most prominent of these equating to the K/X event. The early Eocene lithologic and δ13C records at Branch and Mead Streams are remarkably similar to each other, with the following distinctions: sequences at Branch Stream are thicker and generally have a wider range of δ13C across CIEs. Both expanded sections are marked by terrigenous dilution, best explained by enhanced seasonal precipitation, elevated greenhouse-gas concentrations, and likely global warming. These data indicate lowermost EECO can be described as a time with a general δ13C low superimposed by a series of short-term climate perturbations.

  19. Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stilianakis, Nikolaos I; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010-2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979-2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979-2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010-2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air

  20. Do climate variables and human density affect Achatina fulica (Bowditch) (Gastropoda: Pulmonata) shell length, total weight and condition factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albuquerque, F S; Peso-Aguiar, M C; Assunção-Albuquerque, M J T; Gálvez, L

    2009-08-01

    The length-weight relationship and condition factor have been broadly investigated in snails to obtain the index of physical condition of populations and evaluate habitat quality. Herein, our goal was to describe the best predictors that explain Achatina fulica biometrical parameters and well being in a recently introduced population. From November 2001 to November 2002, monthly snail samples were collected in Lauro de Freitas City, Bahia, Brazil. Shell length and total weight were measured in the laboratory and the potential curve and condition factor were calculated. Five environmental variables were considered: temperature range, mean temperature, humidity, precipitation and human density. Multiple regressions were used to generate models including multiple predictors, via model selection approach, and then ranked with AIC criteria. Partial regressions were used to obtain the separated coefficients of determination of climate and human density models. A total of 1.460 individuals were collected, presenting a shell length range between 4.8 to 102.5 mm (mean: 42.18 mm). The relationship between total length and total weight revealed that Achatina fulica presented a negative allometric growth. Simple regression indicated that humidity has a significant influence on A. fulica total length and weight. Temperature range was the main variable that influenced the condition factor. Multiple regressions showed that climatic and human variables explain a small proportion of the variance in shell length and total weight, but may explain up to 55.7% of the condition factor variance. Consequently, we believe that the well being and biometric parameters of A. fulica can be influenced by climatic and human density factors.

  1. Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts

  2. Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metslaid, Sandra; Stanturf, John A; Hordo, Maris; Korjus, Henn; Laarmann, Diana; Kiviste, Andres

    2016-07-01

    Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

  3. [Ovine dicrocoeliasis: incidence of climatic factors and share in the setting of a forecasting method (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badie, A

    1978-01-01

    Study of annual activity cycle of ants parasited with Dicrocoelium lanceolatum. Effect of some climatic factors (temperature, rainfall) on seasonal variations of the number of clinching parasited ants. A close analysis of the data displays a double correlation: the increase of the number of clinching ants indirectly brought about by precipitations and this with some delay; a strong decrease by high temperatures in the height of summer. Setting of a calendar including the different stages of the developing cycle of Dicrocoelium lanceolatum in Limousin and proposition of a forecasting technic established from land observations.

  4. Changes in forcing factors affecting coastal and shallow water erosion in the future Arctic climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrynin, Mikhail; Razumov, Sergey; Brovkin, Victor; Ilyina, Tatiana; Grigoriev, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    Driving factors of seabed and coastal erosion in the Arctic can be classified as thermal and mechanical. Thermal factors such as air and ocean temperatures affect the seabed and coastal ground temperatures. Mechanical factors such as ocean currents and surface gravity waves contribute to the seabed and costal erosion due to shear stress. Due to polar amplification, the Arctic experiences strong increase in air and water temperature, sea-ice loss and changes in the ocean and atmospheric circulation, temperature and wind distribution. These climatic changes lead to changes in factors driving seabed and coastal erosion, which is expected to accelerate in the shallow Arctic regions such as the Laptev sea and East Siberian sea. In these regions, the coastal line to a large extent consists of frozen rocks, sediments and organic soils including ground ice. The increase of erosion rate of the coastal line will increase the release of organic and inorganic matter from thawed permafrost. Dynamics of thermal and mechanical drivers of seabed and coastal erosion in the present and future climate change (RCP8.5 scenario) simulated by the CMIP5 version of the MPI Earth system model and wave model WAM will be presented. Special attention will be given to changes in the air temperature, wind dynamics and development of new waves system in the ``ice-free'' Arctic and its role in the seabed and coastal erosion.

  5. The Benefits of Including Clinical Factors in Rectal Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling After Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Defraene, Gilles, E-mail: gilles.defraene@uzleuven.be [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Van den Bergh, Laura [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Al-Mamgani, Abrahim [Department of Radiation Oncology, Erasmus Medical Center - Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Haustermans, Karin [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Heemsbergen, Wilma [Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Heuvel, Frank [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Lebesque, Joos V. [Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To study the impact of clinical predisposing factors on rectal normal tissue complication probability modeling using the updated results of the Dutch prostate dose-escalation trial. Methods and Materials: Toxicity data of 512 patients (conformally treated to 68 Gy [n = 284] and 78 Gy [n = 228]) with complete follow-up at 3 years after radiotherapy were studied. Scored end points were rectal bleeding, high stool frequency, and fecal incontinence. Two traditional dose-based models (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and Relative Seriality (RS) and a logistic model were fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. Furthermore, these model fits were improved by including the most significant clinical factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminating ability of all fits. Results: Including clinical factors significantly increased the predictive power of the models for all end points. In the optimal LKB, RS, and logistic models for rectal bleeding and fecal incontinence, the first significant (p = 0.011-0.013) clinical factor was 'previous abdominal surgery.' As second significant (p = 0.012-0.016) factor, 'cardiac history' was included in all three rectal bleeding fits, whereas including 'diabetes' was significant (p = 0.039-0.048) in fecal incontinence modeling but only in the LKB and logistic models. High stool frequency fits only benefitted significantly (p = 0.003-0.006) from the inclusion of the baseline toxicity score. For all models rectal bleeding fits had the highest AUC (0.77) where it was 0.63 and 0.68 for high stool frequency and fecal incontinence, respectively. LKB and logistic model fits resulted in similar values for the volume parameter. The steepness parameter was somewhat higher in the logistic model, also resulting in a slightly lower D{sub 50}. Anal wall DVHs were used for fecal incontinence, whereas anorectal wall dose best described the other two endpoints

  6. Analysis of Factors in Technological and Vocational School Teachers' Perceived Organizational Innovative Climate and Continuous Use of E-Teaching: Using Computer Self-Efficacy as an Intervening Variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Chun-Mei; Hsiao, His-Chi; Shen, Chien-Hua; Chen, Su-Chang

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to analyze the correlation (N = 335) among technological and vocational school teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate, computer self-efficacy, and continuous use of e-teaching in Taiwan. Teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate includes five factors, namely, job autonomy, innovative leadership, resource…

  7. ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN CLIMATIC FACTORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena COFAS

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The data records of crop productivity shows wide fluctuations from one year to another, these being influencedsignificantly by the conditions climate variability. In general, climate variability affects all sectors of the economy,but, in particular, the agricultural sector it is the most exposed. This study aims an statistical analyze the effectsinduced by climatological factors on the main agricultural crops, quantified in agroclimatic risks at local andregional levels, for the period 1990-2000, in Ialomita county. Thus, we used statistical data relating to the twogroups of variables: 1 agricultural productions (for the main crops – wheat and rye, corn, sunflower, sugar beet,potatoes, vegetables and 2 climatology data (for the main climatological factors – average temperatures, rainfall,the sunshine duration and the nebulosity and we analysed the possible correlations for those major variables.

  8. [Correlation analysis between meteorological factors, biomass, and active components of Salvia miltiorrhiza in different climatic zones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chen-lu; Liang, Zong-suo; Guo, Hong-bo; Liu, Jing-ling; Liu, Yan; Liu, Feng-hua; Wei, Lang-zhu

    2015-02-01

    In this study, the growth and accumulation of active components of Salvia miltiorrhiza in twenty two experimental sites which crossing through three typical climate zones. The S. miltiorrhiza seedlings with the same genotype were planted in each site in spring, which were cultivated in fields with uniform management during their growing seasons till to harvest. The diterpene ketones (dihydrotanshinone, cryptotanshinone, tanshinone I and tanshinone II(A)) in S. miltiorrhiza root samples were determined by using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. The biomass of root (root length, number of root branches, root width and dry weight) was also measured. The results showed that tanshinone II(A) in all samples of each site were higher than the standards required by China Pharmacopoeia. It has been found there is a relationship between root shape and climate change. The correlation analysis between active components and meteorological factors showed that the accumulation of tanshinones were effected by such meteorological factors as average relative humidity from April to October > average vapor pressure from April to October > average temperature difference day and night from April to October > annual average temperature and so on. The correlation analysis between root biomass and meteorological factors exhibited that root shape and accumulation of dry matter were affected by those factors, such as average annual aboveground (0-20 cm) temperature from April to October > annual average temperature > average vapor pressure from April to October > annual active accumulated temperature > annual average temperature > average vapor pressure from April to October. The accumulation of tanshinones and biomass was increased with the decrease of latitude. At the same time, the dry matter and diameter of root decreased if altitude rises. In addition, S. miltiorrhiza required sunlight is not sophisticated, when compared with humid and temperature. To sum up, S

  9. Climate drives fire synchrony but local factors control fire regime change in northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larissa L. Yocom Kent; Peter Z. Fulé; Peter M. Brown; Julián Cerano-Paredes; Eladio Cornejo-Oviedo; Citlali Cortés Montaño; Stacy A. Drury; Donald A. Falk; Jed Meunier; Helen M. Poulos; Carl N. Skinner; Scott L. Stephens; José Villanueva-Díaz

    2017-01-01

    The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top-down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom-up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad-scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up drivers of fire in a...

  10. A Critical Analysis of Climate Change Factors and its Projected Future Values in Delta State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emaziye, P. O., R. N. Okoh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the critical analysis of climate change factors (temperature and rainfall and its projected future values in the state. The main objective was to determine the trends of climate change factors (temperature and rainfall. And the specific objective was to determine the projected future trends of climate change factors in the state. Multistage sampling procedure was used in the random selection of states, local government, communities and rural households for the research study. Annual mean time series data of temperature and rainfall were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET. Data were also obtained from structure questionnaire survey. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis and growth model. The study reveals that there were increasing trends of temperature values and decreasing rainfall values in the state. But their projected future values witnessed an increasing trend. The increasing trends in temperature values may lead to a situation were crops will be smothered by excessive heat thereby reducing food production in the state. The study therefore recommends that meteorological station units should be established in the rural farming households in the state where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will make available meteorological data (information to the reach of the poor rural farming household for the attainment of food production.

  11. Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

    2014-01-01

    Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

  12. Forecasting Malaria Cases Using Climatic Factors in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varun Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC, Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1 (0,1,012, was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004 and relative humidity (P value = 0.001 were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

  13. Mesenchymal stem cell therapy ameliorates diabetic nephropathy via the paracrine effect of renal trophic factors including exosomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagaishi, Kanna; Mizue, Yuka; Chikenji, Takako; Otani, Miho; Nakano, Masako; Konari, Naoto; Fujimiya, Mineko

    2016-01-01

    Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have contributed to the improvement of diabetic nephropathy (DN); however, the actual mediator of this effect and its role has not been characterized thoroughly. We investigated the effects of MSC therapy on DN, focusing on the paracrine effect of renal trophic factors, including exosomes secreted by MSCs. MSCs and MSC-conditioned medium (MSC-CM) as renal trophic factors were administered in parallel to high-fat diet (HFD)-induced type 2 diabetic mice and streptozotocin (STZ)-induced insulin-deficient diabetic mice. Both therapies showed approximately equivalent curative effects, as each inhibited the exacerbation of albuminuria. They also suppressed the excessive infiltration of BMDCs into the kidney by regulating the expression of the adhesion molecule ICAM-1. Proinflammatory cytokine expression (e.g., TNF-α) and fibrosis in tubular interstitium were inhibited. TGF-β1 expression was down-regulated and tight junction protein expression (e.g., ZO-1) was maintained, which sequentially suppressed the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition of tubular epithelial cells (TECs). Exosomes purified from MSC-CM exerted an anti-apoptotic effect and protected tight junction structure in TECs. The increase of glomerular mesangium substrate was inhibited in HFD-diabetic mice. MSC therapy is a promising tool to prevent DN via the paracrine effect of renal trophic factors including exosomes due to its multifactorial action. PMID:27721418

  14. RNA Sequencing Analysis Reveals Transcriptomic Variations in Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum Leaves Affected by Climate, Soil, and Tillage Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Lei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The growth and development of plants are sensitive to their surroundings. Although numerous studies have analyzed plant transcriptomic variation, few have quantified the effect of combinations of factors or identified factor-specific effects. In this study, we performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq analysis on tobacco leaves derived from 10 treatment combinations of three groups of ecological factors, i.e., climate factors (CFs, soil factors (SFs, and tillage factors (TFs. We detected 4980, 2916, and 1605 differentially expressed genes (DEGs that were affected by CFs, SFs, and TFs, which included 2703, 768, and 507 specific and 703 common DEGs (simultaneously regulated by CFs, SFs, and TFs, respectively. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses showed that genes involved in abiotic stress responses and secondary metabolic pathways were overrepresented in the common and CF-specific DEGs. In addition, we noted enrichment in CF-specific DEGs related to the circadian rhythm, SF-specific DEGs involved in mineral nutrient absorption and transport, and SF- and TF-specific DEGs associated with photosynthesis. Based on these results, we propose a model that explains how plants adapt to various ecological factors at the transcriptomic level. Additionally, the identified DEGs lay the foundation for future investigations of stress resistance, circadian rhythm and photosynthesis in tobacco.

  15. The vegetation coverage dynamic coupling with climatic factors in Northeast China Transect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Qin; Xu, Jianhua; Ji, Minhe; Cao, Lei; Yang, Yang; Hong, Yulian

    2012-09-01

    Based on SPOT-VGT images and meteorological data, this paper applied an integrated method to investigate the vegetation dynamic and its response to climate factors during 1998-2008 in Northeast China Transect, one of 15 ecological transects listed in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. The main findings are as follows: (1) The NDVI time series presented nonlinear patterns that vary with timescales. The series fluctuated greatly at the smallest timescale (20 days), showing no salient trend, whereas a trend manifested itself more and more with the increase of time scale and finally stabilized at the 320-day scale. Little difference was found between vegetation types about the NDVI periodicity, as they occurred on either a 280-day or a 290-day cycle. (2) NDVI exhibited a significant correlation with temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours. Overall, the correlation between NDVI and temperature was the highest, followed by precipitation, sunshine hours, and relative humidity. For different vegetation types, the correlations between NDVI and climate variables diversified, increasing from desert steppe to typical steppe, meadow steppe, and forest. (3) The periodicity of temperature and precipitation occurred in either a 280-day or 290-day cycle, which was approximately coincident with that of NDVI. This further supported the significant relationship between NDVI and these two climate factors. (4) At all the time scales under examination, NDVI and temperature and precipitation are significantly, positively correlated, especially at the 160-day scale, which can be regarded as the most suitable time scale for investigating the responses of vegetation dynamics to climate factors at most stations.

  16. Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

  17. Analysis of Factors That Affects the Capital Structure within Companies Included In the Index of LQ45 During 2011 - 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominica Rufina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the factors of ROA, Asset Structure, Sales Growth, and Firm Size affecting Capital Structure. The population in this study is the companies included in the Index LQ45 Indonesia Stock Exchange from the period 2011 to 2013, the data of a total of 270 listed companies in LQ45 during that period, only 90 corporate data that successively included in the index LQ45. The data used in this study uses secondary data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange website www.idx.co.id. In the process of data analysis and testing the assumptions of classical hypothesis testing using multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS v20.00. The results showed that partially variable ROA, Asset Structure, and Firm Size has a significant influence on the Capital Structure, Growth Sales whereas variable has no influence on the Capital Structure. Simultaneously ROA, Asset Structure, Sales Growth, and Firm Size effect on Capital Structure.

  18. Factors associated with the patient safety climate at a teaching hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raíssa Bianca Luiz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: to investigate the association between the scores of the patient safety climate and socio-demographic and professional variables.Methods: an observational, sectional and quantitative study, conducted at a large public teaching hospital. The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire was used, translated and validated for Brazil. Data analysis used the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences. In the bivariate analysis, we used Student's t-test, analysis of variance and Spearman's correlation of (α=0.05. To identify predictors for the safety climate scores, multiple linear regression was used, having the safety climate domain as the main outcome (α=0.01.Results: most participants were women, nursing staff, who worked in direct care to adult patients in critical areas, without a graduate degree and without any other employment. The average and median total score of the instrument corresponded to 61.8 (SD=13.7 and 63.3, respectively. The variable professional performance was found as a factor associated with the safety environment for the domain perception of service management and hospital management (p=0.01.Conclusion: the identification of factors associated with the safety environment permits the construction of strategies for safe practices in the hospitals.

  19. Climate and soil factors influencing seedling recruitment of plant species used for dryland restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Erickson, Todd E.; Martini, Dylan C.; Dixon, Kingsley W.; Merritt, David J.

    2016-06-01

    Land degradation affects 10-20 % of drylands globally. Intensive land use and management, large-scale disturbances such as extractive operations, and global climate change, have contributed to degradation of these systems worldwide. Restoring these damaged environments is critical to improving ecosystem services and functions, conserve biodiversity, and contribute to climate resilience, food security, and landscape sustainability. Here, we present a case study on plant species of the mining intensive semi-arid Pilbara region in Western Australia that examines the effects of climate and soil factors on the restoration of drylands. We analysed the effects of a range of rainfall and temperature scenarios and the use of alternative soil materials on seedling recruitment of key native plant species from this area. Experimental studies were conducted in controlled environment facilities where conditions simulated those found in the Pilbara. Soil from topsoil (T) stockpiles and waste materials (W) from an active mine site were mixed at different proportions (100 % T, 100 % W, and two mixes of topsoil and waste at 50 : 50 and 25 : 75 ratios) and used as growth media. Our results showed that seedling recruitment was highly dependent on soil moisture and emergence was generally higher in the topsoil, which had the highest available water content. In general, responses to the climate scenarios differed significantly among the native species which suggest that future climate scenarios of increasing drought might affect not only seedling recruitment but also diversity and structure of native plant communities. The use of waste materials from mining operations as growth media could be an alternative to the limited topsoil. However, in the early stages of plant establishment successful seedling recruitment can be challenging in the absence of water. These limitations could be overcome by using soil amendments but the cost associated to these solutions at large landscape scales

  20. Simulation of thermal indoor climate in buildings by using human Projected Area Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jørgen Erik

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays many new and old buildings in Denmark have large glass surfaces. This is a consequence of the technical development of windows with low U-values that has made it possible to build houses with windows from floor to ceiling in northern climates. On the other hand if one is sitting close to...... for dynamic building thermal analysis. The method is demonstrated in a newer apartment with windows from floor to ceiling and shows how impotent it is to include the radiant effect from the glass sur-faces and how it influences the indoor thermal climate significantly....... to these large windows on a cold winter day it is recognized that this can cause thermal discomfort. The calculation of this discomfort needs to be taken properly into account in the simulation of the thermal indoor climate and energy consumption of the rooms. The operative temperature can be used as a simple...... measure for thermal environ-ment. The operative temperature is a function of the air temperature, the mean radiant temperature and the relative air velocity. However, in many programs for calculation of energy consumption and thermal indoor climate the model for calculating the mean radiant temperature...

  1. Climate change as a confounding factor in reversibility of acidification: RAIN and CLIMEX projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia, southernmost Norway, together cover 17 years (1984-2000 of whole-catchment manipulation of acid deposition and climate. A 1200 m2 roof placed over the forest canopy at KIM catchment excluded about 80% of ambient acid deposition; clean rain was sprinkled under the roof. A climate change treatment (3.7°C increase in air temperature and increase in air carbon dioxide concentrations to 560 ppmv was superimposed on the clean rain treatment for four years (1995-1998. Sea-salt inputs and temperature are climate-related factors that influence water chemistry and can confound long-term trends caused by changes in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia provided direct experimental data that allow quantitative assessment of these factors. Run-off chemistry responded rapidly to the decreased acid deposition. Sulphate concentrations decreased by 50% within three years; nitrate and ammonium concentrations decreased to new steady-state levels within the first year. Acid neutralising capacity increased and hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium decreased. Similar recovery from acidification was also observed at the reference catchment, ROLF, in response to the general 50% reduction in sulphate deposition over southern Norway in the late 1980s and 1990s. Variations in sea-salt deposition caused large variations in run-off chemistry at the reference catchment ROLF and the year-to-year noise in acid neutralising capacity was as large as the overall trend over the period. These variations were absent at KIM catchment because the sea-salt inputs were held constant over the entire 17 years of the clean rain treatment. The climate change experiment at KIM catchment resulted in increased leaching of inorganic nitrogen, probably due to increased mineralisation and nitrification rates in the soils. Keywords: acid deposition, global change, water, soil, catchment, experiment, Norway.

  2. Influence of Agronomic and Climatic Factors on Fusarium Infestation and Mycotoxin Contamination of Cereals in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhoft, A.; Torp, M.; Clasen, P.-E.; Løes, A.-K.; Kristoffersen, A.B.

    2012-01-01

    A total of 602 samples of organically and conventionally grown barley, oats and wheat was collected at grain harvest during 2002–2004 in Norway. Organic and conventional samples were comparable pairs regarding cereal species, growing site and harvest time, and were analysed for Fusarium mould and mycotoxins. Agronomic and climatic factors explained 10–30% of the variation in Fusarium species and mycotoxins. Significantly lower Fusarium infestation and concentrations of important mycotoxins were found in the organic cereals. The mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and HT-2 toxin (HT-2) constitute the main risk for human and animal health in Norwegian cereals. The impacts of various agronomic and climatic factors on DON and HT-2 as well as on their main producers F. graminearum and F. langsethiae and on total Fusarium were tested by multivariate statistics. Crop rotation with non-cereals was found to reduce all investigated characteristics significantly – mycotoxin concentrations as well as various Fusarium infestations. No use of mineral fertilisers and herbicides was also found to decrease F. graminearum, whereas lodged fields increased the occurrence of this species. No use of herbicides was also found to decrease F. langsethiae, but for this species the occurrence was lower in lodged fields. Total Fusarium infestation was decreased with no use of fungicides or mineral fertilisers, and with crop rotation, as well as by using herbicides and increased by lodged fields. Clay and to some extent silty soils seemed to reduce F. graminearum in comparison with sandy soils. Concerning climate factors, low temperature before grain harvest was found to increase DON; and high air humidity before harvest to increase HT-2. F. graminearum was negatively correlated with precipitation in July but correlated with air humidity before harvest. F. langsethiae was correlated with temperature in July. Total Fusarium increased with increasing precipitation in July. Organic cereal

  3. Enhancement of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to include the effect of surface albedo on climate change: Comparing black and white roofs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susca, Tiziana

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, life cycle assessment (LCA) does not estimate a key property: surface albedo. Here an enhancement of the LCA methodology has been proposed through the development and employment of a time-dependent climatological model for including the effect of surface albedo on climate. The theoretical findings derived by the time-dependent model have been applied to the case study of a black and a white roof evaluated in the time-frames of 50 and 100 years focusing on the impact on global warming potential. The comparative life cycle impact assessment of the two roofs shows that the high surface albedo plays a crucial role in offsetting radiative forcings. In the 50-year time horizon, surface albedo is responsible for a decrease in CO(2)eq of 110-184 kg and 131-217 kg in 100 years. Furthermore, the white roof compared to the black roof, due to the high albedo, decreases the annual energy use of about 3.6-4.5 kWh/m(2).

  4. Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and contributing climatic factors in China during 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhaoli; Xie, Peiwei; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong; Wu, Xushu; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Li, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important parameter for characterization of the hydrological cycle, and it is also important for agricultural, environmental and other studies. The ETo for 4189 grid points in China from 1961 to 2013 was calculated in this study utilizing the FAO Penman-Monteith method (P-M) based on an updated high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) gridded dataset. Five climatic variables including wind speed (WS), sunlight duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), maximum daily temperature (Tm) and minimum daily temperature (Tn), were selected to identify the contribution to variability of ETo. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of each climatic variable was also investigated. Results indicate that (1) ETo distribution in China differed significantly both in seasonal and spatial scale in general, and annual ETo significantly decreased 6.84 mm/decade (P < 0.05); a turning point occurred in 1982 for the temporal variability of ETo and the fluctuation periods of 2.4- and 3.4-years existed in the ETo series. (2) WS was the most influential climatic variable related to ETo variability with relative contribution of 32.31%, followed by Tm (26.65%), SD (19.70%), RH (14.33%) and Tn (7.02%); significant declines (P < 0.05) of WS and SD were indicated in the decrease of ETo while the increase of Tm and Tn and the decrease of RH contributed to enhancing ETo. (3) Relative contributions of climatic variables to ETo were temporally unstable and varied considerably in the nine agricultural regions and the whole China; spatial distribution for relative contribution of various climatic variables showed significant diversity among various agricultural regions. The results have the potential to provide a reference for agricultural production and management in China.

  5. Identification of dominant climate factor for pan evaporation trend in the Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiaomang; ZHENG Hongxing; ZHANG Minghua; LIU Changming

    2011-01-01

    Despite the observed increase in global temperature,observed pan evaporation in many regions has been decreasing over the past 50 years,which is known as the “pan evaporation paradox”.The “pan evaporation paradox” also exists in the Tibetan Plateau,where pan evaporation has decreased by 3.06 mm a-2 (millimeter per annum).It is necessary to explain the mechanisms behind the observed decline in pan evaporation because the Tibetan Plateau strongly influences climatic and environmental changes in China,Asia and even in the Northern Hemisphere.In this paper,a derivation based approach has been used to quantitatively assess the contribution rate of climate factors to the observed pan evaporation trend across the Tibetan Plateau.The results showed that,provided the other factors remain constant,the increasing temperature should have led to a 2.73 mm a-2 increase in pan evaporation annually,while change in wind speed,vapor pressure and solar radiation should have led to a decrease in pan evaporation by 2.81 mm a-2,1.96 mm a-2 and 1.11 mm a-2 respectively from 1970 to 2005.The combined effects of the four climate variables have resuited in a 3.15 mm a-2 decrease in pan evaporation,which is close to the observed pan evaporation trend with a relative error of 2.94%.A decrease in wind speed was the dominant factor for the decreasing pan evaporation,followed by an increasing vapor pressure and decreasing solar radiation,all of which offset the effect of increasing temperature across the Tibetan Plateau.

  6. [Responses of Manglietia glauca growth to soil nutrients and climatic factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Li-Hua; He, Ri-Ming; Nong, Rui-Hong; Li, Zhong-Guo

    2014-04-01

    Tree height and diameter of breast height (DBH) as growth characteristics of Manglietia glauca introduced from Vietnam were measured at many sites in south China and responses of M. glauca growth to soil nutrients and climatic factors were analyzed in this study. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH among different planted sites had significant differences. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH had significant positive correlation with soil total N and P, available N and P, but no significant correlation with soil organic matter, total K, available K, indicating that soil N and P contents could be the main affecting factors for the growth of M. glauca. Annual average increment of tree height had significant difference, but annual average increment of DBH had no significant difference at different altitudes. Annual average increment of tree height increased with the altitude from 150 to 550 m, the maximum was at the altitude of 550 m, and then it decreased. It indicated that the most appropriate altitude for M. glauca introduction is 550 m. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH had significant negative correlation with annual average temperature and > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature, and significant positive correlation with annual average precipitation, suggesting that annual mean temperature, > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual average precipitation could be the main climatic factors influencing the growth of M. glauca.

  7. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  8. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  9. CLIMATE CHANGES AS THE RISK FACTOR IN MILK PRODUCTION IN WIELKOPOLSKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryszard Chaberski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The pilot researches were conducted in Wielkopolska. They aimed initial identifi cation of cows reaction on changing of THI, which are likened to temperature and humidity conditions of air. The subjected cows characterize with high productivity, exceeding 40kg of milk per day, independently from lactation stages. The results display that the day s production of raw milk, as well as fat and protein content, do not only depend on lactation stage but also on the value of THI factors. Higher THI is accompanied by loss in the weight of milk and drop in its technological utility. The climate warming may escalate the risk of production loss during the heats.

  10. A new prognostic model for cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy including pretreatment thrombocytosis and standard pathological risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todenhöfer, Tilman; Renninger, Markus; Schwentner, Christian; Stenzl, Arnulf; Gakis, Georgios

    2012-12-01

    Study Type - Prognosis (cohort series) Level of Evidence 2a What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Preoperative thrombocytosis has been identified as a predictor of poor outcome in various cancer types. However, the prognostic role of platelet count in patients with invasive bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy is unknown. The present study demonstrates that preoperative thrombocytosis is an independent risk factor for decreased cancer-specific survival after radical treatment of invasive bladder cancer. We developed a new prognostic scoring model for cancer-specific outcomes after radical cystectomy including platelet count and established pathological risk factors. Consideration of platelet count in the final model increased its predictive accuracy significantly. Thrombocytosis may be a useful parameter to include within established international bladder cancer nomograms. •  To investigate the oncological significance of preoperative thrombocytosis in patients with invasive bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy, as it has been reported as a marker for aggressive tumour biology in a variety of solid tumours. •  The series comprised 258 patients undergoing radical cystectomy between 1999 and 2010 in whom different clinical and histopathological parameters were assessed. •  Elevated platelet count was defined as >450 × 10(9) /L. •  Based on regression estimates of significant parameters in multivariable analysis a new weighted scoring model was developed to predict cancer-specific outcomes. •  The median follow-up was 30 months (6-116). •  Of the 258 patients, 26 (10.1%) had elevated and 232 (89.9%) had normal platelet count. The 3-year cancer-specific survival in patients with normal and elevated platelet count was 61.5% and 32.7%, respectively (P thrombocytosis (2.68, 1.26-5.14; P= 0.011). •  The 3-year cancer-specific survival in patients with a score 0 (low risk), 1-2 (intermediate risk) and 3

  11. REGULATION OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CLIMATE IN INSTITUTION

    OpenAIRE

    O. M. Volodko

    2008-01-01

    The paper considers an essence of psychological climate and its role in the professional activity and efficiency of institution performance. The state of psychological climate depends on concrete factors: director personality, human relations, system of incentives including motivations and labour conditions. Acting on these factors ensures regulation of the psychological climate

  12. REGULATION OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CLIMATE IN INSTITUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Volodko

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers an essence of psychological climate and its role in the professional activity and efficiency of institution performance. The state of psychological climate depends on concrete factors: director personality, human relations, system of incentives including motivations and labour conditions. Acting on these factors ensures regulation of the psychological climate

  13. Carbon dioxide and climate. [Appendix includes names and addresses of the Principal Investigators for the research projects funded in FY1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-10-01

    Global climate change is a serious environmental concern, and the US has developed An Action Agenda'' to deal with it. At the heart of the US effort is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which has been developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The USGCRP will provide the scientific basis for sound policy making on the climate-change issue. The DOE contribution to the USGCRP is the Carbon Dioxide Research Program, which now places particular emphasis on the rapid improvement of the capability to predict global and regional climate change. DOE's Carbon Dioxide Research Program has been addressing the carbon dioxide-climate change connection for more than twelve years and has provided a solid scientific foundation for the USGCRP. The expansion of the DOE effort reflects the increased attention that the Department has placed on the issue and is reflected in the National Energy Strategy (NES) that was released in 1991. This Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1991 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments. The Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Health and Environmental Research, Office of Energy Research supports a Carbon Dioxide Research Program to determine the scientific linkage between the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, and climate and vegetation change. One facet is the Core CO{sub 2} Program, a pioneering program that DOE established more than 10 years ago to understand and predict the ways that fossil-fuel burning could affect atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, global climate, and the Earth's biosphere. Major research areas are: global carbon cycle; climate detection and models of climate change; vegetation research; resource analysis; and, information and integration.

  14. On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in hydrological simulation under climate change: A case study in the Jing River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Li, Z.; Ishidaira, H.

    2012-04-01

    The role of catchment vegetation within the hydrological cycle and its impact on hydrological processes has long been a topic of research within hydrology. A key element in quantifying the hydrological impact of climate change is the relationship between catchment vegetation and runoff, which continues to be a productive area of research within hydrology. However, the parameterization of vegetation composition and distribution as a dynamic component is insufficient in stand-alone hydrological modeling studies. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. A biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD) may simulate both vegetation dynamics and runoff generation reasonably. This study applies the LPJH model to the Jing River basin, a tributary of the Yellow River, with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at this semi-arid basin and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The results show that the LPJH model gives reasonable hydrological simulation in terms of runoff. It is shown that changing climate conditions in terms of co2, temperature, precipitation, and the combination changes of these variables would result in actual evapotranspiration and runoff changes. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore, the composition and distribution of vegetation are of fundamental importance for evapotranspiration and runoff generation, especially under climate change. The percent of impact from each climate variable is also explored by using the LPJH model, which gives an overall view of climate change impact on hydrological processes

  15. Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avise, Jeremy; Abraham, Rodrigo Gonzalez; Chung, Serena H; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Salathé, Eric P; Zhang, Yongxin; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Duhl, Tiffany

    2012-09-01

    The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of

  16. [Spatial distribution characteristics of China cotton fiber quality and climatic factors based on GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Zong-Wei; Gu, Sheng-Hao; Mao, Li-Li; Wang, Xue-Jiao; Zhang, Li-Zhen; Zhou, Zhi-Guo

    2012-12-01

    By using geographical information system (GIS), the cotton fiber quality data from 2005 to 2011 and the daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 at 82 sites (counties and cities) in China major cotton production regions were collected and treated with spatial interpolation. The spatial information system of cotton fiber quality in China major cotton production regions was established based on GIS, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the cotton fiber quality and their relationships with the local climatic factors were analyzed. In the northwest region (especially Xinjiang) of China, due to the abundant sunlight, low precipitation, and low relative humidity, the cotton fiber length, micronaire, and grade ranked the first. In the Yangtze River region and Yellow River region, the specific strength of cotton fiber was higher, and in the Yangtze River region, the cotton fiber length and specific strength were higher, while the micronaire and grade were lower than those in the Yellow River region. The cotton fiber quality was closely related to the climate factors such as temperature, sunlight, rainfall, and humidity.

  17. Post-disturbance dust emissions in dry lands: the role of anthropogenic and climatic factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, S.; Zobeck, T. M.; Sankey, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    Disturbances, which cause a temporary reduction in vegetation cover, can greatly accelerate soil erosion by wind and subsequent dust emissions from desert grasslands and shrublands. These ecosystems worldwide are threatened by contemporary shifts in vegetation composition (e.g. encroachment by shrubs, invasion by exotic grasses) and climatic changes (e.g. increase in aridity, droughts), which alter the frequency and intensity of disturbances and dust emissions. Considering the deleterious impact of dust-borne contaminants on regional air quality and human health, accelerated post-disturbance aeolian transport is an increasingly serious concern for ecosystem management and risk assessment. Here, using extensive wind tunnel studies, field experiments (in grasslands and shrublands of North America) and modeling, we investigated the role of disturbances (fires, grazing) and changes in hydroclimatic factors (air humidity, soil moisture) in altering aeolian processes in desert grassland and shrublands. Our results indicate that the degree of post-disturbance aeolian transport and its attenuation with time was found to be strongly affected by the antecedent vegetation type and post-disturbance climatic conditions. The interactions among sediment transport processes, disturbances and hydroclimatic factors are explored from patch to landscape scales and their roles in dust emissions and land degradation are discussed.

  18. Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marek, Michal V., E-mail: marek.mv@czechglobe.cz [Global Change Research Centres, Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, Belidla 4a CZ-60300 Brno (Czech Republic); Institute of Forest Ecology Forestry Faculty, Mendel University Brno, Zemedelska 3, CZ-614 00 (Czech Republic); Janous, Dalibor; Taufarova, Klara; Havrankova, Katerina; Pavelka, Marian; Kaplan, Veroslav [Global Change Research Centres, Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, Belidla 4a CZ-60300 Brno (Czech Republic); Markova, Irena [Institute of Forest Ecology Forestry Faculty, Mendel University Brno, Zemedelska 3, CZ-614 00 (Czech Republic)

    2011-05-15

    By comparing five ecosystem types in the Czech Republic over several years, we recorded the highest carbon sequestration potential in an evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). Because of a massive ecosystem respiration, the final carbon gain of the grassland was negative. Climate was shown to be an important factor of carbon uptake by ecosystems: by varying the growing season length (a 22-d longer season in 2005 than in 2007 increased carbon sink by 13%) or by the effect of short- term synoptic situations (e.g. summer hot and dry days reduced net carbon storage by 58% relative to hot and wet days). Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy which is demonstrated by the comparison of seasonal course of carbon uptake between coniferous (Norway spruce) and deciduous (European beech) stands. - Highlights: > Highest carbon sequestration potential in evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). > The final carbon gain of the grassland was negative (massive ecosystem respiration). > Climate is important factor of net primary productivity. > Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy of ecosystem. - Identification of the apparent differences in the carbon storage by different ecosystem types.

  19. Fatores indicadores da sintomatologia climatérica Predicting factors of climacteric symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Roberto Soares De Lorenzi

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: identificar fatores indicadores da sintomatologia climatérica. PACIENTES E MÉTODOS: estudo transversal de 254 mulheres pós-menopáusicas com idade entre 45 e 60 anos atendidas em Ambulatório de Climatério entre junho e outubro de 2002. Foram excluídas mulheres histerectomizadas ou sob terapia hormonal. As atitudes sobre a menopausa foram avaliadas por meio de instrumento construído a partir da adaptação de um questionário, constituindo-se de 11 questões referentes a atitudes positivas (vantagens e 11 referentes a atitudes negativas (desvantagens sobre a menopausa. Para a coleta de dados sociodemográficos e relacionados a variáveis reprodutivas e às condições de saúde da população estudada, utilizou-se questionário estruturado e previamente testado. A sintomatologia climatérica foi avaliada pelo índice de Kupperman e as atitudes sobre a menopausa por meio de instrumento específico. Os dados foram analisados pelo teste t de Student, análise de variância (ANOVA e regressão linear múltipla. RESULTADOS: de modo geral, a sintomatologia climatérica foi leve em 28%, moderada em 42,3% e intensa em 30,7% dos casos. Os sintomas mais prevalentes foram a irritabilidade (87,1%, as artralgias/mialgias (77,5% e a melancolia/tristeza (73,2%, ao passo que os mais intensos foram as ondas de calor, a irritabilidade e a insônia. Sintomas vasomotores foram referidos por 60,2% das entrevistadas. Mostraram-se indicadores da sintomatologia climatérica a cor, a atividade física regular e as atitudes com respeito a menopausa. A cor branca (p=0,02, a atividade física regular (p=0,04 e uma percepção positiva sobre a menopausa (p=0,01 associaram-se a sintomas climatéricos menos intensos. Em contrapartida, a percepção da menopausa como evento desvantajoso (atitude negativa associou-se a pior sintomatologia climatérica (pPURPOSE: to identify factors associated with climacteric symptoms. METHODS: a cross-sectional study of 254

  20. Spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and the association between its epidemic and climate factors in Hainan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Lang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hainan is one of the provinces most severely affected by malaria epidemics in China. The distribution pattern and major determinant climate factors of malaria in this region have remained obscure, making it difficult to target countermeasures for malaria surveillance and control. This study detected the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and explored the association between malaria epidemics and climate factors in Hainan. Methods The cumulative and annual malaria incidences of each county were calculated and mapped from 1995 to 2008 to show the spatial distribution of malaria in Hainan. The annual and monthly cumulative malaria incidences of the province between 1995 and 2008 were calculated and plotted to observe the annual and seasonal fluctuation. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the temporal trends in the annual malaria incidences. Cross correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on malaria transmission and the auto correlation of malaria incidence. A multivariate time series analysis was conducted to construct a model of climate factors to explore the association between malaria epidemics and climate factors. Results The highest malaria incidences were mainly distributed in the central-south counties of the province. A fluctuating but distinctly declining temporal trend of annual malaria incidences was identified (Cochran-Armitage trend test Z = -25.14, P F = 85.06, P R 2 = 0.81. The autocorrelations of the fitting residuals were not significant (P > 0.05, indicating that the model extracted information sufficiently. There was no significant difference between the monthly predicted value and the actual value (t = -1.91, P = 0.08. The R 2 for predicting was 0.70, and the autocorrelations of the predictive residuals were not significant (P > 0.05, indicating that the model had a good predictive ability. Discussion Public health resource

  1. Climate Factors as Important Determinants of Dengue Incidence in Curaçao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limper, M; Thai, K T D; Gerstenbluth, I; Osterhaus, A D M E; Duits, A J; van Gorp, E C M

    2016-03-01

    Macro- and microclimates may have variable impact on dengue incidence in different settings. We estimated the short-term impact and delayed effects of climate variables on dengue morbidity in Curaçao. Monthly dengue incidence data from 1999 to 2009 were included to estimate the short-term influences of climate variables by employing wavelet analysis, generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) on rainfall, temperature and relative humidity in relation to dengue incidence. Dengue incidence showed a significant irregular 4-year multi-annual cycle associated with climate variables. Based on GAM, temperature showed a U-shape, while humidity and rainfall exhibited a dome-shaped association, suggesting that deviation from mean temperature increases and deviation from mean humidity and rainfall decreases dengue incidence, respectively. Rainfall was associated with an immediate increase in dengue incidence of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2-8.1%) after a 10-mm increase, with a maximum increase of 6.5% (95% CI: 3.2-10.0%) after 1.5 month lag. A 1 °C decrease of mean temperature was associated with a RR of 17.4% (95% CI: 11.2-27.0%); the effect was inversed for a 1°C increase of mean temperature (RR= 0.457, 95% CI: 0.278-0.752). Climate variables are important determinants of dengue incidence and provide insight into its short-term effects. An increase in mean temperature was associated with lower dengue incidence, whereas lower temperatures were associated with higher dengue incidence.

  2. A patient with refractory shock induced by several factors, including obstruction because of a posterior mediastinal hematoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obinata, Mariko; Ishikawa, Kouhei; Osaka, Hiromichi; Mishima, Kentaro; Omori, Kazuhiko; Oode, Yasumasa; Yanagawa, Youichi

    2015-06-01

    A 44-year-old man who drove a motorcycle experienced a collision with the side of another motorcycle. Because he had sustained a high-energy injury to the spinal cord, he was transferred to our hospital. His circulation was unstable, and received tracheal intubation in addition to thoracostomy for the hemothorax. Whole-body computed tomography (CT) revealed multiple fractures, right hemopneumothorax with pulmonary contusion, and minor liver injury. After infusing 5000 mL of lactated Ringer's solution and 10 units of blood, his circulation remained unstable. On a repeat CT examination, the left atrium was found to be compressed by a posterior mediastinal hematoma induced by the fracture of the thoracic spine, and a diagnosis of shock induced by multiple factors, including hemorrhagic, neurogenic, and obstructive mechanisms, was made. After obtaining stable circulation and respirations, internal fixation of the extremities and extubation were performed on the 12th hospital day. Chest CT performed on the 27th day showed the disappearance of compression of the left atrium by the hematoma.

  3. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical–Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 –2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Alvin G.; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P.; Javier, Jenaline B.; Olveda, Remigio M.; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. Materials and Methods We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. Results At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Conclusions Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate

  4. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamigaki, Taro; Chaw, Liling; Tan, Alvin G; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P; Javier, Jenaline B; Olveda, Remigio M; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L

    2016-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for

  5. Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Liqun; LIU Changming; LI Yanping; WANG Guoqiang

    2007-01-01

    Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956-2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had attracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P,Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual precipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is -3.9 ℃, temperature is the main factor influencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area between Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising

  6. The role of climate and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2015-04-01

    Nigeria has a number of climate-sensitive infectious diseases; one of the most important of these diseases that remains a threat to public health is cholera. This study investigates the influences of both meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera in Nigeria. A stepwise multiple regression models are used to estimate the influence of the year-to-year variations of cholera cases and deaths for individual states in the country and as well for three groups of states that are classified based on annual rainfall amount. Specifically, seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall totals were analysed with annual aggregate count of cholera cases and deaths, taking into account of the socioeconomic factors that are potentially enhancing vulnerability such as: absolute poverty, adult literacy, access to pipe borne water and population density. Result reveals that the most important explanatory meteorological and socioeconomic variables in explaining the spatiotemporal variability of the disease are rainfall totals, seasonal mean maximum temperature, absolute poverty, and accessibility to pipe borne water. The influences of socioeconomic factors appeared to be more pronounced in the northern part of the country, and vice-versa in the case of meteorological factors. Also, cross validated models output suggests a strong possibility of disease prediction, which will help authorities to put effective control measures in place which depend on prevention, and or efficient response.

  7. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  8. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giustino Parruti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II, Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20. Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5% attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6% attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4% had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5% had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0% died due to such events (n = 4 or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression and CPs (logistic regression. At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001, current smoking (p = 0.019 and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013 were independently associated with vascular events. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs

  9. Leaf litter nitrogen concentration as related to climatic factors in Eurasian forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Chunjiang; Berg, Bjørn; Kutsch, Werner

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in leaf litter of forest trees as functions of climatic factors, annual average temperature (Temp, °C) and annual precipitation (Precip, dm) and of forest type (coniferous vs. broadleaf, deciduous vs. evergreen, Pinus......, etc.). Location: The review was conducted using data from studies across the Eurasian continent. Methods: Leaf litter N concentration was compiled from 204 sets of published data (81 sets from coniferous and 123 from broadleaf forests in Eurasia). We explored the relationships between leaf litter N...... concentration and Temp and Precip by means of regression analysis. Leaf litter data from N2-fixing species were excluded from the analysis. Results: Over the Eurasian continent, leaf litter N concentration increased with increasing Temp and Precip within functional groups such as conifers, broadleaf, deciduous...

  10. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Global NDVI Trends: Correlations with Climate and Human Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    LIU, Y.; Li, S.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: Changes in vegetation activity are driven by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors, which can be reflected by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from satellite. In this paper, NDVI trends from 1982 to 2012 are first estimated by the Theil-Sen median slope method to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. Then the impact of climate variables and human activity on the observed NDVI trends is analyzed. Our results show on average NDVI increased by 0.46×10-3 per year from 1982 to 2012 globally with decadal variations. For most regions of the world, a greening (increasing) - browning(decreasing) - greening (G-B-G) trend is observed over the periods 1982-2004, 1995-2004, and 2005-2012, respectively. A positive partial correlation of NDVI and temperature is observed in the first period but it decreases and occasionally becomes negative in the following periods, especially in the Humid Temperate and Dry Domain Regions. This suggests a weakened effect of temperature on vegetation growth. Precipitation, on the other hand, is found to have a positive impact on the NDVI trend. This effect becomes stronger in the third period of 1995-2004, especially in the Dry Domain Region. Anthropogenic effects and human activities, derived here from the Human Footprint Dataset and the associated Human Influence Index (HII), have varied impacts on the magnitude (absolute value) of the NDVI trends across continents. Significant positive effects are found in Asia, Africa, and Europe, suggesting that intensive human activity could accelerate the change in NDVI and vegetation. A more accurate attribution of vegetation change to specific climatic and anthropogenic factors is instrumental to understand vegetation dynamics and requires further research.

  11. Ammonia and methane emissions from two naturally ventilated dairy cattle buildings and the influence of climatic factors on ammonia emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wentao; Zhang, Guoqiang; Kai, Peter

    2012-12-01

    Based on the requirement of the international conventions, there is a pressing need for inventory of NH3, CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions from livestock buildings. The main aim of this study was to quantify the gas emissions and investigate the influence of the climatic factors on ammonia emissions. The measurements were carried out in two naturally ventilated dairy cattle buildings with different layouts, floor types and manure management systems during three periods covering winter and summer time. Air temperature and the three dimensional air velocities inside and outside the buildings were recorded over the course of summer period. Emission rates were determined by CO2 production model. The results showed that the internal concentrations of NH3, CH4 and CO2 were increased or decreased simultaneously. Low concentration of N2O was measured outside and inside the buildings; the difference of the concentrations were also very low. The variation of CH4 and CO2 concentrations showed a strong correlation. The NH3 emission rates varied from 32 to 77 g HPU-1 d-1 in building 1 and varied from 18 to 30 g HPU-1 d-1 in building 2. The average emission of CH4 was 290 and 230 g HPU-1 d-1 from building 1 and 2, respectively. Diurnal pattern was found for NH3 and CH4 emission rates. From multiple linear regression models, there was a significant linear relationship between NH3 emission rates and climatic factors including the external wind speed as well as the air temperature (P 0.05).

  12. Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

  13. Integrating Climate Change Factors into Environmental Planning Innovation of the National 12th Five Year Development Plan towards Climate Change in China%Integrating Climate Change Factors into Environmental Planning Innovation of the National 12th Five Year Development Plan towards Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xiao; Li Yangfan; Yin Rongyao; Sun Xiang; Zhu Xiaodong

    2011-01-01

    Effects on sustainable development of climate change have been going further nowadays. National Five Year Development Plan in China should have specific policies on how to take climate change impacts into account through the environmental planning. Key fields distribute in three levels of natural bearing capacity, production system and human settlements, and include seven aspects: ecosystems, water resources, disasters and risks, low-carbon economy, vulnerable departments, urbanization, and coastland.

  14. Exploring factors influencing farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme to address climatic issues in agricultural sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Yahaya, Siti Rohani Binti; Rahman, Mahfuzur; Akhtar, Rulia

    2015-06-01

    This study empirically estimates farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in Pakistan's agricultural sectors. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed to determine a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues. The survey was conducted by distributing structured questionnaires among Pakistani farmers. The study found that 67 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme. However, several socioeconomic and motivational factors exert greater influence on their willingness to pay (WTP). This paper specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support attempts by policy makers to design an efficient adaptation framework for mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.

  15. Excitation and charge transfer in He/sup +/ + H collisions. A molecular approach including two-electron translation factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Errea, L.F.; Mendez, L.; Riera, A.

    1983-06-01

    In a previous paper we have pointed out that the common-translation-factor (CTF) method is the only one which, at present, and within the framework of the molecular model of atomic collisions, can be shown to be both convergent and computationally fast, even for many-electron systems. In this Communication we check that this second statement is correct, presenting, for the first time, a molecular calculation involving two-electron translation factors, for He/sup +/ + H collisions. A careful study of the sensitivity of the calculated cross sections to the choice of the CTF is performed, and conclusions on that sensitivity are drawn, for several types of processes.

  16. Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

  17. A systematic review of Registered Nurses; experiences of the influence of workplace culture and climatic factors on nursing workloads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross-Walker, Cheryl; Rogers-Clark, Cath; Pearce, Susanne

    2012-01-01

    Nursing workload is an issue that effects both the recruitment and retention of nurses, and patient safety. Historically, measurement has focussed on the delivery of direct patient care and excluded workload of facilitating hands-on care and supporting the organisation via duties that reflect organisation cultural and climate needs. Qualitative research is appropriate to understand this complexity. To determine the best available evidence in relation to registered nurses experiences of workplace cultural and climatic factors that influence nursing workloads, in an acute health care setting. This review sought high quality studies which explored registered nurses' experiences of the influence of cultural and climatic factors on their workloads. Qualitative research studies and opinion-based text were considered. An extensive search of the literature was conducted to identify published and unpublished studies between January 1990 and June 2011 in English, and indexed in the following databases: CINAHL, Medline, Medline-In Process, PsychINFO, Emerald, Current Contents, TRIP, JSTOR Nursing Consult Psychology & Behavioural Sciences collections, Emerald Management Reviews, Emerald Full Text Journals, Embase, Dissertation Abstracts, ERIC, Proquest and MedNar, EBSCOhost, Science Direct, Wiley Interscience. Two independent reviewers (CRW and CRC), using appraisal tools from the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI), assessed fifteen articles; one was excluded. Data were extracted from included papers using standardised tools developed by the JBI. Data from qualitative studies and textual/opinion papers were meta-synthesised separately using standardised instruments. Data synthesis involved the pooling of findings, then grouped into categories on the basis of similarity of meaning. The categories were further aggregated into synthesised findings. 14 papers were identified as high quality and meeting the inclusion criteria. 81 findings were identified from the 10 qualitative research

  18. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  19. Quantifying the Impacts of Environmental Factors on Vegetation Dynamics over Climatic and Management Gradients of Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Dubovyk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Currently there is a lack of quantitative information regarding the driving factors of vegetation dynamics in post-Soviet Central Asia. Insufficient knowledge also exists concerning vegetation variability across sub-humid to arid climatic gradients as well as vegetation response to different land uses, from natural rangelands to intensively irrigated croplands. In this study, we analyzed the environmental drivers of vegetation dynamics in five Central Asian countries by coupling key vegetation parameter “overall greenness” derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series data, with its possible factors across various management and climatic gradients. We developed nine generalized least-squares random effect (GLS-RE models to analyze the relative impact of environmental factors on vegetation dynamics. The obtained results quantitatively indicated the extensive control of climatic factors on managed and unmanaged vegetation cover across Central Asia. The most diverse vegetation dynamics response to climatic variables was observed for “intensively managed irrigated croplands”. Almost no differences in response to these variables were detected for managed non-irrigated vegetation and unmanaged (natural vegetation across all countries. Natural vegetation and rainfed non-irrigated crop dynamics were principally associated with temperature and precipitation parameters. Variables related to temperature had the greatest relative effect on irrigated croplands and on vegetation cover within the mountainous zone. Further research should focus on incorporating the socio-economic factors discussed here in a similar analysis.

  20. Factors Influencing Environmental Scanning in the Organizational Context

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zita Correia; T.D. Wilson

    2001-01-01

    ..., directed at the company's external environment. These factors include individual factors, such as information consciousness and exposure to information, and organizational factors such as information climate and "outwardness...

  1. Deduction of bond length changes of symmetric molecules from experimental vibrational progressions, including a topological mass factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jing; Wei, Fan; Schwarz, W H E; Li, Jun

    2012-12-20

    The change ΔR(x) of bond length R(x) for atom X in a molecule upon electronic transition can be derived from the intensities I(i) of the vibrational stretching progression v = 0 → i of the electronic absorption or emission spectrum. In many cases, a simple model is sufficient for a reasonable estimate of ΔR(x). For symmetric molecules, however, conceptual problems in the literature of many decades are evident. The breathing modes of various types of symmetric molecules X(n) and AX(n) (A at the center) are here discussed. In the simplest case of a harmonic vibration of the same mode in the initial and final electronic states, we obtain ΔR(x) ≈ [2S/(ωm(x))](1/2)/w(1/2) (all quantities in atomic units). ω and S are respectively the observed vibrational quanta and the Huang-Rhys factor (corresponding, e.g., to the vibrational intensity ratio I(1)/I(0) ≈ S), m(x) is the mass of vibrating atom X, and w is a topological factor for molecule X(n) or AX(n). The factor 1/w(1/2) in the expression for ΔR(x) must not be neglected. The spectra and bond length changes of several symmetric molecules AX(n) and X(n) are discussed. The experimental bond length changes correctly derived with factor 1/w(1/2) are verified by reliable quantum chemical calculations.

  2. Revisiting the role of environmental and climate factors on the epidemiology of Kawasaki disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodó, Xavier; Ballester, Joan; Curcoll, Roger; Boyard-Micheau, Joseph; Borràs, Sílvia; Morguí, Josep-Anton

    2016-10-01

    Can environmental factors, such as air-transported preformed toxins, be of key relevance to the health outcomes of poorly understood human ailments (e.g., rheumatic diseases such as vasculitides, some inflammatory diseases, or even severe childhood acquired heart diseases)? Can the physical, chemical, or biological features of air masses be linked to the emergence of diseases such as Kawasaki disease (KD), Henoch-Schönlein purpura, Takayasu's aortitis, and ANCA-associated vasculitis? These diseases surprisingly share some common epidemiological features. For example, they tend to appear as clusters of cases grouped geographically and temporarily progress in nonrandom sequences that repeat every year in a similar way. They also show concurrent trend changes within regions in countries and among different world regions. In this paper, we revisit transdisciplinary research on the role of environmental and climate factors in the epidemiology of KD as a paradigmatic example of this group of diseases. Early-warning systems based on environmental alerts, if successful, could be implemented as a way to better inform patients who are predisposed to, or at risk for, developing KD. Further research on the etiology of KD could facilitate the development of vaccines and specific medical therapies.

  3. Tile Low Rank Cholesky Factorization for Climate/Weather Modeling Applications on Manycore Architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Akbudak, Kadir

    2017-05-11

    Covariance matrices are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. In particular, large covariance matrices arise from multivariate spatial data sets, for instance, in climate/weather modeling applications to improve prediction using statistical methods and spatial data. One of the most time-consuming computational steps consists in calculating the Cholesky factorization of the symmetric, positive-definite covariance matrix problem. The structure of such covariance matrices is also often data-sparse, in other words, effectively of low rank, though formally dense. While not typically globally of low rank, covariance matrices in which correlation decays with distance are nearly always hierarchically of low rank. While symmetry and positive definiteness should be, and nearly always are, exploited for performance purposes, exploiting low rank character in this context is very recent, and will be a key to solving these challenging problems at large-scale dimensions. The authors design a new and flexible tile row rank Cholesky factorization and propose a high performance implementation using OpenMP task-based programming model on various leading-edge manycore architectures. Performance comparisons and memory footprint saving on up to 200K×200K covariance matrix size show a gain of more than an order of magnitude for both metrics, against state-of-the-art open-source and vendor optimized numerical libraries, while preserving the numerical accuracy fidelity of the original model. This research represents an important milestone in enabling large-scale simulations for covariance-based scientific applications.

  4. Effects of climatic factors on height growth components in Austrian black pine. [Pinus nigra nigricans, Arn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guyon, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    Weekly (or biweekly) leader shoot growth was assessed over 3 growing seasons (1982-1984) and annual shoot length was measured over 6 years (1979-1984) for a 30 seedlings (age: 11 years) sampled in a naturally regenerated stand of black pine, located at Mont Ventoux in southern France. The number of internodes (stem units) was assessed over the same period (1979-1984). Annual shoot length of a given year appeared as mainly controlled by the number of internodes initiated during the summer of the previous year. Investigations of climatic factors taking place during the assumed initiation stage, have shown a significant correlation between the annual leader shoot length and the cummulated rainfall of June, July and September of the previous year. By contrast, the correlations between the temperature factors during the assumed time of initiation and number of initiated internodes of the same year were not significant. The weekly shoot growth was significantly related to the average of minimum air temperature of the same period, at the time of height growth, that is to say April and May. Finally the possibility of integrating these results into growth models is discussed.

  5. Catchment process affecting drinking water quality, including the significance of rainfall events, using factor analysis and event mean concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinque, Kathy; Jayasuriya, Niranjali

    2010-12-01

    To ensure the protection of drinking water an understanding of the catchment processes which can affect water quality is important as it enables targeted catchment management actions to be implemented. In this study factor analysis (FA) and comparing event mean concentrations (EMCs) with baseline values were techniques used to asses the relationships between water quality parameters and linking those parameters to processes within an agricultural drinking water catchment. FA found that 55% of the variance in the water quality data could be explained by the first factor, which was dominated by parameters usually associated with erosion. Inclusion of pathogenic indicators in an additional FA showed that Enterococcus and Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) were also related to the erosion factor. Analysis of the EMCs found that most parameters were significantly higher during periods of rainfall runoff. This study shows that the most dominant processes in an agricultural catchment are surface runoff and erosion. It also shows that it is these processes which mobilise pathogenic indicators and are therefore most likely to influence the transport of pathogens. Catchment management efforts need to focus on reducing the effect of these processes on water quality.

  6. Multilevel Analysis of Trachomatous Trichiasis and Corneal Opacity in Nigeria: The Role of Environmental and Climatic Risk Factors on the Distribution of Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer L Smith

    Full Text Available The distribution of trachoma in Nigeria is spatially heterogeneous, with large-scale trends observed across the country and more local variation within areas. Relative contributions of individual and cluster-level risk factors to the geographic distribution of disease remain largely unknown. The primary aim of this analysis is to assess the relationship between climatic factors and trachomatous trichiasis (TT and/or corneal opacity (CO due to trachoma in Nigeria, while accounting for the effects of individual risk factors and spatial correlation. In addition, we explore the relative importance of variation in the risk of trichiasis and/or corneal opacity (TT/CO at different levels. Data from the 2007 National Blindness and Visual Impairment Survey were used for this analysis, which included a nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years and above. Complete data were available from 304 clusters selected using a multi-stage stratified cluster-random sampling strategy. All participants (13,543 individuals were interviewed and examined by an ophthalmologist for the presence or absence of TT and CO. In addition to field-collected data, remotely sensed climatic data were extracted for each cluster and used to fit Bayesian hierarchical logistic models to disease outcome. The risk of TT/CO was associated with factors at both the individual and cluster levels, with approximately 14% of the total variation attributed to the cluster level. Beyond established individual risk factors (age, gender and occupation, there was strong evidence that environmental/climatic factors at the cluster-level (lower precipitation, higher land surface temperature, higher mean annual temperature and rural classification were also associated with a greater risk of TT/CO. This study establishes the importance of large-scale risk factors in the geographical distribution of TT/CO in Nigeria, supporting anecdotal evidence that environmental conditions are associated

  7. Climatic Factors and Community — Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Skin and Soft-Tissue Infections — A Time-Series Analysis Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krushna Chandra Sahoo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Skin and soft tissue infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus (SA-SSTIs including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA have experienced a significant surge all over the world. Changing climatic factors are affecting the global burden of dermatological infections and there is a lack of information on the association between climatic factors and MRSA infections. Therefore, association of temperature and relative humidity (RH with occurrence of SA-SSTIs (n = 387 and also MRSA (n = 251 was monitored for 18 months in the outpatient clinic at a tertiary care hospital located in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. The Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method was used for antibiotic susceptibility testing. Time-series analysis was used to investigate the potential association of climatic factors (weekly averages of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and RH with weekly incidence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA infections. The analysis showed that a combination of weekly average maximum temperature above 33 °C coinciding with weekly average RH ranging between 55% and 78%, is most favorable for the occurrence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA and within these parameters, each unit increase in occurrence of MRSA was associated with increase in weekly average maximum temperature of 1.7 °C (p = 0.044 and weekly average RH increase of 10% (p = 0.097.

  8. [Change of vegetation net primary productivity in Yellow River watersheds from 2001 to 2010 and its climatic driving factors analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiang; Chen, Yun-Hao; Wang, Meng-Jie; Jiang, Wei-Guo; Hou, Peng; Li, Ying

    2014-10-01

    Based on the MODIS-NDVI remotely sensed imagery, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of vegetation net primary production (NPP) calculated by CASA model in Yellow River watersheds from 2001 to 2010. Associated with the temperature and precipitation data in the same period, this article respectively analyzed the change trends of vegetation NPP in six ecosystems with different spatial and temporal scales, and the relationship between NPP and climate factors. The results indicated that in terms of spatial scale, the vegetation NPP gradually reduced from northwest to southeast, the average of annual NPP was 108.53 Tg C, and the spatial distribution of vegetation NPP was highly related with the land cover types. In terms of temporal scale, the vegetation NPP gradually increased from 2001 to 2010, but this change trend had large differences in these regions. On annual level, the vegetation NPP had no significant correlation with climate factors, but precipitation and temperature had considerable impacts on the vegetation NPP on monthly level. The correlations between NPP and climate factors were different in different ecosystems, so did the time lag effect of the climate factors. The air temperature response of the NPP variation was relatively sensitive in forest ecosystem and the precipitation response was significant in grassland and wetland ecosystems. Additionally, the precipitation response of the NPP variation in grassland ecosystem had time lag effect and so did the air temperature response in desert ecosystem.

  9. Postnatal visual deprivation in rats regulates several retinal genes and proteins, including differentiation-associated fibroblast growth factor-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokosch-Willing, Verena; Meyer zu Hoerste, Melissa; Mertsch, Sonja; Stupp, Tobias; Thanos, Solon

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the retinal cellular basis of amblyopia, which is a developmental disease characterized by impaired visual acuity. This study examined the retinal transcripts associated with experimentally induced unilateral amblyopia in rats. Surgical tarsorrhaphy of the eyelids on one side was performed in pups prior to eye opening at postnatal day 14, thereby preventing any visual experience. This condition was maintained for over 2 months, after which electroretinograms (ERGs) were recorded, the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) arrangement and number were determined using neuroanatomical tracing, the retinal transcripts were studied using microarray analysis, regulated mRNAs were confirmed with quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR, and proteins were stained using Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. An attenuated ERG was found in eyes that were deprived of visual experience. Retrograde neuroanatomical staining disclosed a larger number of RGCs within the retina on the visually deprived side compared to the non-deprived, control side, and a multilayered distribution of RGCs. At the retinomic level, several transcripts associated with retinal differentiation, such as fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2), were either up- or downregulated. Most of the transcripts could be verified at the mRNA level. To unravel the role of a differentiation-associated protein, we tested FGF-2 in dissociated postnatal retinal cell cultures and found that FGF-2 is a potent factor triggering ganglion cell differentiation. The data suggest that visual experience shapes the postnatal retinal differentiation, whereas visual deprivation induces changes at the functional, cellular and molecular levels within the retina.

  10. Generating induced pluripotent stem cells from common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) fetal liver cells using defined factors, including Lin28.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomioka, Ikuo; Maeda, Takuji; Shimada, Hiroko; Kawai, Kenji; Okada, Yohei; Igarashi, Hiroshi; Oiwa, Ryo; Iwasaki, Tsuyoshi; Aoki, Mikio; Kimura, Toru; Shiozawa, Seiji; Shinohara, Haruka; Suemizu, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Erika; Okano, Hideyuki

    2010-09-01

    Although embryonic stem (ES) cell-like induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells have potential therapeutic applications in humans, they are also useful for creating genetically modified human disease models in nonhuman primates. In this study, we generated common marmoset iPS cells from fetal liver cells via the retrovirus-mediated introduction of six human transcription factors: Oct-3/4, Sox2, Klf4, c-Myc, Nanog, and Lin28. Four to five weeks after introduction, several colonies resembling marmoset ES cells were observed and picked for further expansion in ES cell medium. Eight cell lines were established, and validation analyses of the marmoset iPS cells followed. We detected the expression of ES cell-specific surface markers. Reverse transcription-PCR showed that these iPS cells expressed endogenous Oct-3/4, Sox2, Klf4, c-Myc, Nanog and Lin28 genes, whereas all of the transgenes were silenced. Karyotype analysis showed that two of three iPS cell lines retained a normal karyotype after a 2-month culture. Both embryoid body and teratoma formation showed that marmoset iPS cells had the developmental potential to give rise to differentiated derivatives of all three primary germ layers. In summary, we generated marmoset iPS cells via the transduction of six transcription factors; this provides a powerful preclinical model for studies in regenerative medicine.

  11. Broadening the etiological discourse on Alzheimer's disease to include trauma and posttraumatic stress disorder as psychosocial risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnes, David P R; Burnette, Denise

    2013-08-01

    Biomedical perspectives have long dominated research on the etiology and progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD); yet these approaches do not solely explain observed variations in individual AD trajectories. More robust biopsychosocial models regard the course of AD as a dialectical interplay of neuropathological and psychosocial influences. Drawing on this broader conceptualization, we conducted an extensive review of empirical and theoretical literature on the associations of trauma, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and AD to develop a working model that conceptualizes the role of psychosocial stressors and physiological mechanisms in the onset and course of AD. The proposed model suggests two pathways. In the first, previous life trauma acts as a risk factor for later-life onset of AD, either directly or mediated by PTSD or PTSD correlates. In the second, de novo AD experiential trauma is associated with accelerated cognitive decline, either directly or mediated through PTSD or PTSD correlates. Evidence synthesized in this paper indicates that previous life trauma and PTSD are strong candidates as psychosocial risk factors for AD and warrant further empirical scrutiny. Psychosocial and neurological-based intervention implications are discussed. A biopsychosocial approach has the capacity to enhance understanding of individual AD trajectories, moving the field toward 'person-centered' models of care.

  12. Climate stories: Why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharman, Amelia; Howarth, Candice

    2016-03-11

    Public perceptions of the climate debate predominantly frame the key actors as climate scientists versus sceptical voices; however, it is unclear why climate scientists and sceptical voices choose to participate in this antagonistic and polarised public battle. A narrative interview approach is used to better understand the underlying rationales behind 22 climate scientists' and sceptical voices' engagement in the climate debate, potential commonalities, as well as each actor's ability to be critically self-reflexive. Several overlapping rationales are identified including a sense of duty to publicly engage, agreement that complete certainty about the complex assemblage of climate change is unattainable and that political factors are central to the climate debate. We argue that a focus on potential overlaps in perceptions and rationales as well as the ability to be critically self-reflexive may encourage constructive discussion among actors previously engaged in purposefully antagonistic exchange on climate change.

  13. Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouchet, J; Manguin, S; Sircoulon, J; Laventure, S; Faye, O; Onapa, A W; Carnevale, P; Julvez, J; Fontenille, D

    1998-06-01

    Different malarial situations in Africa within the past 40 years are discussed in order to evaluate the impact of climatic and human factors on the disease. North of the equator, more droughts and lower rainfall have been recorded since 1972; and in eastern and southern Africa, there have been alternating dry and wet periods in relation to El Niño. Since 1955, the increase in human population from 125 to 450 million has resulted in both expansion of land cultivation and urbanization. In stable malaria areas of West and Central Africa and on the Madagascar coasts, the endemic situation has not changed since 1955. However, in unstable malaria areas such as the highlands and Sahel significant changes have occurred. In Madagascar, cessation of malaria control programs resulted in the deadly epidemic of 1987-88. The same situation was observed in Swaziland in 1984-85. In Uganda, malaria incidence has increased more than 30 times in the highlands (1,500-1,800 m), but its altitudinal limit has not overcome that of the beginning of the century. Cultivation of valley bottoms and extension of settlements are in large part responsible for this increase, along with abnormally heavy rainfall that favored the severe epidemic of 1994. A similar increase in malaria was observed in neighboring highlands of Rwanda and Burundi, and epidemics have been recorded in Ethiopia since 1958. In contrast, in the Sahel (Niayes region, Senegal), stricken by droughts since 1972, endemic malaria decreased drastically after the disappearance of the main vector, Anopheles funestus, due to the destruction of its larval sites by cultivation. Even during the very wet year of 1995. An funestus did not reinvade the region and malaria did not increase. The same situation was observed in the Sahelian zone of Niger. Therefore, the temperature increase of 0.5 degree C during the last 2 decades cannot be incriminated as a major cause for these malaria changes, which are mainly due to the combination of

  14. Complex analysis of Askaryan radiation: A fully analytic treatment including the LPM effect and Cascade Form Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Jordan C.; Connolly, Amy L.

    2017-05-01

    The Askaryan effect describes coherent electromagnetic radiation from high-energy cascades in dense media with a collective charge. We present an analytic model of Askaryan radiation that accounts simultaneously for the three-dimensional form factor of the cascade, and quantum mechanical cascade elongation via the Landau-Pomeranchuk-Migdal effect. These calculations, and the associated open-source code, allow the user to avoid computationally intensive Monte Carlo cascade simulations. Searches for cosmogenic neutrinos in Askaryan-based detectors benefit from computational speed, because scans of Askaryan parameter-space are required to match neutrino signals. The Askaryan field is derived from cascade equations verified with Geant4 simulations, and compared with prior numerical and semi-analytic calculations. Finally, instructive cases of the model are transformed from the Fourier domain to the time-domain. Next-generation in situ detectors like ARA and ARIANNA can use analytic time-domain signal models to search for correlations with event candidates.

  15. Complex Analysis of Askaryan Radiation: A Fully Analytic Treatment including the LPM effect and Cascade Form Factor

    CERN Document Server

    Hanson, Jordan C

    2016-01-01

    The Askaryan effect describes coherent electromagnetic radiation from the collective charge within high-energy cascades in dense media. We present the first fully analytic model of Askaryan radiation that accounts simultaneously for the three-dimensional form factor of the electromagnetic cascade and the Landau-Pomeranchuk-Migdal (LPM) effect. Analytic calculations avoid computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations of the cascades. Searches for cosmogenic neutrinos in Askaryan- based detectors benefit from computational speed, because neutrino event parameters affect the shape of the electromagnetic field, requiring scans of parameter space. The Askaryan field is derived and verified against Geant4 simulations, and compared with prior numerical and semi-analytic calculations. Finally, two special cases of the model are transformed from the Fourier domain to the time-domain, analytically. Next-generation in situ detectors like ARA and ARIANNA can use analytic time-domain signal models to search for phase ...

  16. An Examination of Bullying in Georgia Schools: Demographic and School Climate Factors Associated with Willingness to Intervene in Bullying Situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori Goldammer

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Research dedicated to identification of precursors to cases of aggravated bullying in schools has led to enhanced knowledge of risk factors for both victimization and perpetration. However, characteristics among those who are more likely to intervene in such situations are less understood. The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between demographic characteristics, school climate and psychosocial factors, and willingness to intervene in a bullying situation among middle and high school students in Georgia.Methods: We computed analyses using cross-sectional data from the Georgia Student Health Survey II (GSHS 2006 administered to public school students in grades 6, 8, 10, and 12 (n=175,311. We used logistic regression analyses to determine the demographic, school climate and psychosocial factors associated with a willingness to intervene in a bullying situation.Results: Students who were white and who were girls were most likely to report willingness to intervene in bullying situations. Several school-climate factors, such as feeling safe at school, liking school, feeling successful at school and perceiving clear rules at school, were associated with willingness to intervene, while youth who reported binge drinking were less willing to intervene.Conclusion: These findings, while preliminary, indicate that girls, students who are white, and students who experience a relatively positive school climate and adaptive psychosocial factors are more likely to report that they would intervene in bullying situations. These findings may guide how bullying is addressed in schools and underscore the importance of safe school climates. [West J Emerg Med. 2013;14(4:324–328.

  17. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J.S.; Gassmann, F. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  18. Prevalence of tick borne encephalitis virus in tick nymphs in relation to climatic factors on the southern coast of Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreassen Ashild

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE is among the most important vector borne diseases of humans in Europe and is currently identified as a major health problem in many countries. TBE endemic zones have expanded over the past two decades, as well as the number of reported cases within endemic areas. Multiple factors are ascribed for the increased incidence of TBE, including climatic change. The number of TBE cases has also increased in Norway over the past decade, and the human cases cluster along the southern coast of Norway. In Norway the distribution and prevalence of TBE virus (TBEV in tick populations is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to estimate the TBEV prevalence in Ixodes ricinus from seven locations and to assess the relationship between the TBEV prevalence and site-specific climatic variables. Methods A total of 5630 questing nymphs were collected and analyzed in pools of ten. All pools were screened with an in-house real-time RT-PCR, and the positive pools were pyrosequenced. Two methods, minimum infection rate (MIR and a frequentist method (EPP for pooled prevalence estimations were calculated and compared. Climatic data were descriptively compared to the corresponding EPP of each location in order to explain variations in TBEV prevalence. Results The seven foci of TBEV had an estimated overall prevalence (EPP in pools of nymphs combined, of 0.53% with 95% CI (0.35–0.75, with point prevalence ranging between 0.11%–1.22%. The sites with the highest point prevalences were within the municipalities which had the highest numbers of registered TBE cases. The results indicate that the location with highest point prevalence had the highest relative mean humidity and lowest mean saturation deficit and vice versa for the lowest EPP. Conclusion Our study confirms the existence of TBEV endemic foci in Norway. These results are of importance to increase the awareness of TBEV infections in Norway and could be

  19. Influence of soil, land use and climatic factors on the hydraulic conductivity of soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, N.; Koestel, J.; Messing, I.; Moeys, J.; Lindahl, A.

    2013-12-01

    Due to inadequate data support, existing algorithms used to estimate soil hydraulic conductivity, K, in (eco)hydrological models ignore the effects of key site factors such as land use and climate and underplay the significant effects of soil structure on water flow at and near saturation. These limitations may introduce serious bias and error into predictions of terrestrial water balances and soil moisture status, and thus plant growth and rates of biogeochemical processes. To resolve these issues, we collated a new global database of hydraulic conductivity measured by tension infiltrometer under field conditions. The results of our analyses on this data set contrast markedly with those of existing algorithms used to estimate K. For example, saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, in the topsoil (< 0.3 m depth) was found to be only weakly related to texture. Instead, the data suggests that Ks depends more strongly on bulk density, organic carbon content and land use. In this respect, organic carbon was negatively correlated with Ks, presumably due to water repellency, while Ks at arable sites was, on average, ca. 2-3 times smaller than under natural vegetation, forests and perennial agriculture. The data also clearly demonstrates that clay soils have smaller K in the soil matrix and thus a larger contribution of soil macropores to K at and near saturation.

  20. Urban air pollution and climate change as environmental risk factors of respiratory allergy: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, G; Cecchi, L; D'Amato, M; Liccardi, G

    2010-01-01

    The incidence of allergic respiratory diseases and bronchial asthma appears to be increasing worldwide, and people living in urban areas more frequently experience these conditions than those living in rural areas. One of the several causes of the rise in morbidity associated with allergic respiratory diseases is the increased presence of outdoor air pollutants resulting from more intense energy consumption and exhaust emissions from cars and other vehicles. Urban air pollution is now a serious public health hazard. Laboratory studies confirm epidemiologic evidence that air pollution adversely affects lung function in asthmatics. Damage to airway mucous membranes and impaired mucociliary clearance caused by air pollution may facilitate access of inhaled allergens to the cells of the immune system, thus promoting sensitization of the airway. Consequently, a more severe immunoglobulin (Ig) E-mediated response to aeroallergens and airway inflammation could account for increasing prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases in polluted urban areas. The most abundant components of urban air pollution in urban areas with high levels of vehicle traffic are airborne particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone. In addition, the earth's temperature is increasing, mainly as a result of anthropogenic factors (e.g., fossil fuel combustion and greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply, transport, industry, and agriculture), and climate change alters the concentration and distribution of air pollutants and interferes with the seasonal presence of allergenic pollens in the atmosphere by prolonging these periods.

  1. Climatic factors and prevalence of Campylobacter in commercial broiler flocks in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prachantasena, S; Charununtakorn, P; Muangnoicharoen, S; Hankla, L; Techawal, N; Chaveerach, P; Tuitemwong, P; Chokesajjawatee, N; Williams, N; Humphrey, T; Luangtongkum, T

    2017-04-01

    Campylobacter are bacteria associated with human foodborne disease worldwide. Poultry and poultry products are generally considered as a main source of these organisms. Compared to temperate zones, baseline information on Campylobacter in tropical regions is limited. Thus, the objectives of the present study were 1) to determine the prevalence of Campylobacter in Thai broiler flocks and 2) to investigate the association between climatic factors (i.e., rainfall, ambient temperature, and relative humidity) and Campylobacter colonization status of broiler flocks in Thailand. A total of 442 commercial broiler flocks reared in the central and northeastern regions of Thailand during 2012 to 2014 were investigated. Campylobacter positive status was identified in 252 examined flocks (57.01%; 95% CI 52.39 to 61.63%). Prevalence of Campylobacter in the northeastern region (54.46%; 95% CI 44.76 to 63.83%) was slightly lower than that of the central region (57.77%; 95% CI 52.47 to 62.90%). More than 65% of Campylobacter positive flocks in the central and northeastern regions had within-flock prevalence higher than 75%. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) revealed that the increased rainfall and relative humidity were associated with the increase of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks (P ≤ 0.05), while no relationship between ambient temperature and Campylobacter colonization status was identified. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  2. Incidence of Herpes Zoster in relationship with Climate Factors from 2009 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herning Adinda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Herpes zoster, or shingles, is a skin or mucous infection caused by the reactivation of varicella-zoster virus (VZV. Seasonal pattern of herpes zoster incidence was reported in some countries, indicating that emergence of this disease was caused by the reactivation of latent Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV rather than new exposures to VZV. On the other hand, the VZV primary infection difference between tropical and temperate zones may have implications for virus reactivation as herpes zoster. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of herpes zoster in Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung, West Java related to the change of rainfall, air temperature and humidity from 2009 to 2011. Methods: A descriptive retrospective study was carried out to 341 medical records of herpes zoster patients from Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung periode 2009 to 2011. Data on climate factors, i.e. rainfall, air temperature, and relative humidity, were obtained from the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency. The collected data were presented using tables and figures. Result: The highest number of herpes zoster cases occured during the period when the highest annually total rainfall and annually mean relative humidity occurred. Conclusions: The finding of this study shows that herpes zoster cases have the same pattern with the rainfall and relative humidity. These findings can inform better prevention of herpes zoster. However, further research is needed to get more comprehensive understanding on this relationship.

  3. Evaluation of Demographics and Climatic Factors/Disease Relationship in Patients with Pityriasis Rosea

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    Emel Bülbül Başkan

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Design: Pityriasis rosea (PR is an acute onset, self-limiting papulosquamous skin disease. The etiology of the disease is totally unknown, however, many epidemiological and clinical studies have suggested that infectious agents may cause the disease. Seasonal changes in the incidence may be an epidemiologic evidence for potential infectious etiology. In this study, we aimed to analyze the demographic data of PR patients and to explore the role of climatic factors in the etiology of the disease. Material and Method: We retrospectively reviewed the patient files of PR cases that had been followed up in our clinic between 2000 and 2005. Demographic data of the patients as well as the date of applications were recorded. Temperature, raining, pressure and humidity data for the City of Bursa for years 2000-2005 were obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Republic of Turkey. Any potential relationship between onset time of PR and meteorological parameters was investigated statistically by using cluster analysis. Results: We reviewed the medical records of 413 patients, of whom 271 were female and 142 were male. Herald plaque was seen in 88 patients (21.3%. Pityriasis rosea was observed predominantly in persons between 20 and 29 years of age (139 patients; 33.6%. Distribution of number of cases between 2000-2005 was 51, 57, 80, 75, 63, 87. The highest number of patients was seen in winter (n: 122; 29.5% followed by spring (n: 101; 24.4%, autumn (n: 101; 24.4% and summer (n: 89; 21.7%. No statistically significant difference was found between annual and seasonal changes in the incidence of PR (p>0.05.Conclusion: We conclude that although the relation between PR and seasonal factors was not statistically significant in our study, multi-centric studies on large series of patients are needed to further investigate this topic.

  4. DISTRIBUTION OF RIVER RUNOFF AND ITS CLIMATE FACTORS IN AVERAGE AND EXTREME YEARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Konovalov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Schematic maps of spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation amounts and average air temperatures were obtained for the areas studied in years with normal and extreme values of annual river runoff. Data on precipitation for January–December (I–XII and on average air temperatures for June–September (VI–IX during 1961–1990 collected at 93 meteorological stations located along 30.20°–44.08°N and 67.20°–82.98°E, altitude 122–4 169 m above sea level, were used in the maps’ compilation. For each point-element (i.e. a meteorological station with proper data, the ordinates of an integral empirical function of distribution of probabilities P were calculated from these data for a 30-year sample period and for each year were received average values and standard deviations of P. In characteristic years were revealed, significant differences of spatial distribution of climatic factors and runoff. It was found out also that the spatial distribution of the total volume of glaciers melting is less variable in the years with extreme water yields compared to the average years. This peculiarity is very beneficial for hydropower and agriculture sectors because it provides additional natural ability to stabilize water balance of reservoirs. Piecewise multi-factor linear equations were obtained to calculate the statistical probability of glaciers’ total melting in low and high flow years as a function of geographical coordinates and the average altitude of firn boundary.

  5. Effects of Environmental Factors on the Disinfection Performance of a Wastewater Stabilization Pond Operated in a Temperate Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Liu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Treatment in a wastewater stabilization pond (WSP relies on natural purification processes, which can be sensitive to both location and climate. This study investigated the effects of three environmental factors, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO and temperature, on disinfection efficiency in a WSP system consisting of three facultative cells, and operated in a temperate climate region, in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Indicator organism (Escherichia coli (E. coli removal in WSP systems is driven by a combination of different factors. Elevated pH and DO concentrations, which are attributed to the presence of algae, are important factors for effective disinfection. Therefore, the presence of algae in natural wastewater treatment systems can contribute appreciably to disinfection. Consequently, based on algal concentrations, removal efficiencies of pathogenic microorganisms during wastewater treatment over the course of a year can be highly variable, where higher removal efficiencies would be expected in summer and fall seasons.

  6. Goldilocks and three factors that make mercury in fish more than just mercury deposition: sulfur, land use and climate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, K. H.; Eklöf, K.; Nilsson, M. B.; Osterwalder, S.; Åkerblom, S.

    2013-12-01

    The problem of mercury in fish is often framed as a problem created by anthropogenic emissions of mercury increasing the levels of mercury in the environment. But the methylation step that is crucial to making mercury available for bioaccumulation in the aquatic food web is influenced by more than just the concentration of mercury in the environment. Redox conditions, the quality of organic matter, and, in the case of methylation by sulfur reducing bacteria, the availability of sulfur, have all been shown to influence methylmercury concentrations in surface waters and/or mercury in the biota. This creates many possibilities for human influence on mercury bioaccumulation in freshwater fish. But it also creates possibilities for mitigating those human influences, if we can understand them. Forest harvest is one type of land use with a documented human influence on mercury levels in fish. Atmospheric deposition of sulfur is another potential influence on the mercury cycle, as is warming of the climate. Some for the possibilities for controlling the mercury problem may be overlooked by too much focus on mercury deposition and concentrations of total mercury in the landscape relative to these other factors. A range of field studies in FennoScandia published over the last 15 years were analyzed to explore the relative contribution of these different anthropogenic factors on the cycling of mercury. The studies included synoptic surveys across gradients of atmospheric deposition and land use (clear felling, site preparation and stump harvest) in relation to either fish mercury, sediment mercury, peat methylation potential or methylmercury concentrations in water. Long-term field manipulations (6-15 years) of land use (forest harvest) or combinations of sulphur deposition, nitrogen deposition and well greenhouse warming on peatland were also studied. The results suggest that the variation of total mercury in soils or water is less important than several of the other factors

  7. Multi-scale modeling of relationships between forest health and climatic factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael K. Crosby; Zhaofei Fan; Xingang Fan; Martin A. Spetich; Theodor D. Leininger

    2015-01-01

    Forest health and mortality trends are impacted by changes in climate. These trends can vary by species, plot location, forest type, and/or ecoregion. To assess the variation among these groups, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data were obtained for 10 states in the southeastern United States and combined with downscaled climate data from the Weather Research and...

  8. Effect of yoga practices on pulmonary function tests including transfer factor of lung for carbon monoxide (TLCO) in asthma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Savita; Soni, Ritu; Singh, K P; Tandon, O P

    2012-01-01

    Prana is the energy, when the self-energizing force embraces the body with extension and expansion and control, it is pranayama. It may affect the milieu at the bronchioles and the alveoli particularly at the alveolo-capillary membrane to facilitate diffusion and transport of gases. It may also increase oxygenation at tissue level. Aim of our study is to compare pulmonary functions and diffusion capacity in patients of bronchial asthma before and after yogic intervention of 2 months. Sixty stable asthmatic-patients were randomized into two groups i.e group 1 (Yoga training group) and group 2 (control group). Each group included thirty patients. Lung functions were recorded on all patients at baseline, and then after two months. Group 1 subjects showed a statistically significant improvement (Pyoga practice. Quality of life also increased significantly. It was concluded that pranayama & yoga breathing and stretching postures are used to increase respiratory stamina, relax the chest muscles, expand the lungs, raise energy levels, and calm the body.

  9. Effects of indoor environmental factors on respiratory health of children in a subtropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, C Y; Chiu, J F; Cheng, M F; Lin, M C

    1997-10-01

    This study was conducted to determine whether indoor environmental factors affected respiratory symptoms in 4164 primary school children in Kaohsiung rural areas of Taiwan. Information on respiratory health symptoms and characteristics of the housing was obtained using a written questionnaire, completed by the parents of children. Multiple logistic regression analysis examined the relationship between respiratory health symptoms (cough, wheezing, bronchitis, asthma, and allergic rhinitis) and housing factors. Home dampness was significantly associated with all respiratory health symptoms. Incense burning and mosquito repellant burning showed effects on the reporting of coughing symptoms. No apparent associations were found with the other indoor factors included in this study or respiratory health symptoms. We conclude that dampness in the home has a pronounced effects on respiratory health symptoms and is a new public health issue in subtropical areas.

  10. Lifestyle modification induced weight loss and changes of cardiometabolic risk factors including lowering of inflammatory response in obese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motykova, Eva; Zlatohlavek, Lukáš; Prusikova, Martina; Lanska, Vera; Ceska, Richard; Vasickova, Ludmila; Vrablik, Michal

    2011-01-01

    Obesity is associated with increased inflammation which represents a link to atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Lipoprotein associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is an independent marker of inflammation and atherosclerosis risk. To assess the impact of weight loss on metabolic markers of atherosclerosis including Lp-PLA2 we examined a group of Czech non-diabetic obese/overweight children exposed to a lifestyle intervention. Fourty unrelated overweight/obese non-diabetic Czech children (13.7 ± 2.1 years, average BMI at baseline 29.8 ± 2.6 kg/m2) underwent 4 weeks of lifestyle modification (reduction of energy intake to age matched optimum and supervised physical activity). Anthropometrical and biochemical variables were determined at baseline and after the intervention. Lp-PLA2 mass concentration was assessed using the ELISA kit. Wilcocson's rank test and Spearman's correlation were used for statistical analysis. A significant decrease of BMI and waist circumference was associated with significant changes of plasma lipoprotein and glycaemia levels. Mass concentration of Lp-PLA2 at the baseline was 402 ± 94 μg/ml, after the intervention 368 ± 105 μg/ml (p=0.008). Change in Lp-PLA2 was associated with triglyceride level decrease (p=0.009). Intensive lifestyle modification leading to body weight decrease results in significant changes of plasma lipoprotein levels and, also, a drop of Lp-PLA2 levels in paediatric obese patients. However, even after the intervention Lp-PLA2 concentrations in this patient group remain elevated suggesting possible increased atherosclerosis risk in later life. © 2011 Neuroendocrinology Letters

  11. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  12. Analyzing the role of climatic factors on road accidents (Case study: Ardabil-Parsabad road in Ardabil Province, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegheh Alizadeh

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Road accidents and their fatalities are among the currentchallenges human society facing, which in turn resulting in huge social and economiccosts on the countries. Thedeveloping countries are the biggest victims of the road accidents such that inthese countries, road accidents are considered asthe major cause of death. Unfortunately, Iran is amongthe countries in which the rate of road accidents is high. Among thedriving factors that affect road safety and transport isclimate. Ardabil-Parsabad road in Ardabil province is one of the roads manyaccidents have been occurred during years, and thistrend began when the number of cars increased resulted in huge road deaths in1990s. In this study, data has been used from four meteorological stations inArdabil, Samian, Meshkin-Shahr and Parsabad, over a period of5years(2008-2002.For this purpose, several climatic elements werecollected including the average daily temperature, average of minimum temperatures,average of maximum temperatures, the number of snowy days, the number of frostdays, starting glacial period, duration of the snowfall, duration of theglacial period, total average humidity and moderate precipitation, average of sunnyhours, average number of foggy days, the average number of windy days. This analysis is provided using Excel software inthe Arc GIS environment of continuous levels of these parameters in the region.

  13. Variability of photosynthetic parameters of Pinus sibirica Du Tour needles under changing climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.P. Zotikova

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The air temperature and relative humidity and the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation are the basic ecological factors determining geographical distribution of a species. Wood plant adaptation depends on the intensity of physiological and biochemicalprocesses of plants as a response to changing environmental factors. Investigations to reveal (detect the variability of modification andgenetic components of the photosynthetic parameters in needles of the Siberian cedar (Pinus sibirica Du Tour mountain ecotypes, distributed in central part of the Altai Mountains, were carried out. Also, the survey was extended to some experiments with these ecotypes introduced to mild climate and flat regions from south-western of Siberia. The length and thickness of needles, the size of chloroplasts, content of the photosynthetic pigments, and the functional activity of chloroplastsat the level of photo system II were the evaluated traits. Growing under mountainous conditions (at about 2000m elevation, the two-year-old needles were shorter and thicker and contained very large in size chloroplasts while the content of chlorophylls and carotinoids was twice lower than that in the local ecotype growing in the lowlands. On the other hand, more green and yellow pigments were found in needles of mountain ecotypes planted in the lowlands compared to the local lowland ectype trees. A decrease in pool of the photosynthetic pigments in the highlands ecotypes is probably due to decreased biosynthesis andincreased photo-destruction caused by severe light and temperature conditions. These parameters are likely to be associated withmodifications due to intense insolation, low temperature, ozone concentration, UV radiation, and other negative factors that are morepronounced at high elevation. Despite the large pool of accumulated photosynthetic pigments, the functional activity of chloroplasts in themountain ecotype at the level

  14. Variability of photosynthetic parameters of Pinus sibirica Du Tour needles under changing climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.P. Zotikova

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The air temperature and relative humidity and the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation are the basic ecological factors determining geographical distribution of a species. Wood plant adaptation depends on the intensity of physiological and biochemicalprocesses of plants as a response to changing environmental factors. Investigations to reveal (detect the variability of modification andgenetic components of the photosynthetic parameters in needles of the Siberian cedar (Pinus sibirica Du Tour mountain ecotypes, distributed in central part of the Altai Mountains, were carried out. Also, the survey was extended to some experiments with these ecotypes introduced to mild climate and flat regions from south-western of Siberia. The length and thickness of needles, the size of chloroplasts, content of the photosynthetic pigments, and the functional activity of chloroplastsat the level of photo system II were the evaluated traits. Growing under mountainous conditions (at about 2000m elevation, the two-year-old needles were shorter and thicker and contained very large in size chloroplasts while the content of chlorophylls and carotinoids was twice lower than that in the local ecotype growing in the lowlands. On the other hand, more green and yellow pigments were found in needles of mountain ecotypes planted in the lowlands compared to the local lowland ectype trees. A decrease in pool of the photosynthetic pigments in the highlands ecotypes is probably due to decreased biosynthesis andincreased photo-destruction caused by severe light and temperature conditions. These parameters are likely to be associated withmodifications due to intense insolation, low temperature, ozone concentration, UV radiation, and other negative factors that are morepronounced at high elevation. Despite the large pool of accumulated photosynthetic pigments, the functional activity of chloroplasts in themountain ecotype at the level

  15. Heterodynes dominate precipitation isotopes in the East Asian monsoon region, reflecting interaction of multiple climate factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Clemens, Steven C.; Sun, Youbin; Prell, Warren L.; Huang, Yongsong; Gao, Li; Loomis, Shannon; Chen, Guangshan; Liu, Zhengyu

    2016-12-01

    For the past decade, East Asian monsoon history has been interpreted in the context of an exceptionally well-dated, high-resolution composite record of speleothem oxygen isotopes (δ18Ocave) from the Yangtze River Valley. This record is characterized by a unique spectral response, with variance concentrated predominantly within the precession band and an enigmatic lack of variance at the eccentricity and obliquity bands. Here we examine the spectral characteristics of all existing >250-kyr-long terrestrial water isotope records in Asia, including a new water isotope record using leaf wax hydrogen isotope ratios from the Chinese Loess Plateau. There exist profound differences in spectral characteristics among all orbital-scale Asian water isotope records. We demonstrate that these differences result from latitudinal gradients in the influence of the winter and summer monsoons, both of which impact climate and water isotopes throughout East Asia. Water isotope records therefore do not reflect precipitation during a single season or from a single circulation system. Rather, water isotope records in East Asia reflect the complex interplay of oceanic and continental moisture sources, operating at multiple Earth-orbital periods. These non-linear interactions are reflected in water isotope spectra by the presence of heterodynes. Although complex, we submit that water isotope records, when paired with rapidly developing isotope-enabled model simulations, will have the potential to elucidate mechanisms causing seasonal precipitation variability and moisture source variability in East Asia.

  16. 寒热等气候因子相关基因与疾病%Some Genes of Climatic Factor in Cold and Heat Related to Disease Response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林乔; 王米渠; 张敬远

    2002-01-01

    The theory of evolutive phases and climatic changes in Canon be analyzed with the dataof gene related by comparative way. There are results as follows: A lot of endemic and epidemic diseasesunder the climatic changes will being induced with the relationship of HLA. There are observed by ancientdoctors that under the climatic factor of same year of sixty Ganzhi Code Years Cycle, there are induced asame diseases. If you are comparing with the symptoms of that diseases induced in a year and by someHLA genes, you can find that there be similar. Obviously, would you not recognize that there are no rela-tionship between certain climatic factor and HLA?

  17. Drought Change Trend Using MODIS TVDI and Its Relationship with Climate Factors in China from 2001 to 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIANG Liang; ZHAO Shu-he; QIN Zhi-hao; HE Ke-xun; CHEN Chong; LUO Yun-xiao; ZHOU Xing-dong

    2014-01-01

    Changes in drought trends and its relationship with climate change in China were examined in this study. The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) datasets recorded during 2001 to 2010 in China were constructed by using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in drought were analyzed. In addition, the mean temperature, mean precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean sunshine duration data collected from 557 local weather stations in China were analyzed. The relationships between drought and these climate factors were also analyzed by using correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis. Changes in drought tendency were shown to differ among four regions throughout the country. The lfuctuations in climate in the regions of northeastern China, Qinling-Huaihe, and central Qinghai were caused by the increase in soil moisture, and that in southern Tibet was caused by the intensiifcation of drought. Meteorological factors exhibited varied effects on drought among the regions. In southern China, the main inlfuential factor was temperature;other factors only showed minimal effects. That in the northern and northwestern regions was sunshine duration, and those in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were relative humidity and temperature.

  18. Analysis of climate factors for the development of greenhouses in Eastern Blacksea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kendirli, Berna; Cakmak, Belgin [Faculty of Agriculture, Farm Structures and Irrigation Department, Ankara University, Ankara (Turkey); Goekalp, Zeki [Faculty of Agriculture, Farm Structures and Irrigation Department, Gaziosmanpasa University, Tokat (Turkey)

    2007-12-15

    Eastern Blacksea Region is one of the less developed regions of Turkey in agriculture. That is why greenhouses are incited as an alternative income source for the region. In this study, aiming to evaluate the suitability of the climate conditions for greenhouses, heating and ventilation requirements for initially proposed two model greenhouses were calculated based on multi-years climate data. Climate parameters of region provinces were also evaluated and they were compared with climate characteristics of Samsun Province, where there were intensive greenhouse practices. As a result, it was determined that coastal provinces of the region had significant similarities with Samsun Province and they were more suitable than the inner provinces for greenhouse practices. Depending on the evaluations carried out, advantages and disadvantages of the region for greenhouse practices were determined and recommendations were made to regional producers. (author)

  19. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; King, Andrew; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Wada, Yoshihide; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Haarsma, Rein; Haustein, Karsten; Uhe, Peter; van Aalst, Maarten; hide

    2015-01-01

    Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

  20. THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS UPON THE FLASH-FLOODS OCCURING IN THE SUPERIOR BASIN OF THE RIVER MUREŞ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICOLETA DANIELA GORON

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Influence of climatic factors upon the flash-floods occuring in the superior basin of the river Mureş . The floods triggering factors in the upper river basin of the Mures are likely climatic in which case the analysis is based upon a string of data representative for the period 1986-2010, for eight stations and making reference to average rainfall,maximum rainfall within 24 hours, the thickness and duration of snow.The floods in the upper basin of the Mureş do not cause major damage, except in exceptional cases. Most localities that have reported damage caused by floods are located near the Topliţa-Deda gorge, an area that influences flow concentration through a relatively narrow territory compared to the upstream territory where the Mureş river gathers its tributaries.

  1. THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL, PETROGRAPHIC AND CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE SLOPE STABILITY IN THE OPEN CAST MINE OF GRADNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Tomašić

    1992-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of a complexity of interrelated structural, petrologic and climatic factors that considerably affect the instabilities in the open cast mine of Gradna, near Samobor. The instabilities provoke the slope failures such as slides and slumps of rock material. During the protracted periodical investigations, the relationship among the factors of regional geology, tectonics, structural geology, petrography, engineering geology, rock mechanics and the rock mining technology was observed in the area. The local control of hydrogeologic properties, as well as climatic fluctuations of temperature and precipitation on the slope stability, was also recognized. It turned out that the structural relationships, characteristic of the manifold cataclased dolomite, stimulated the development of local instabilities, particularly during the period of low temperatures affecting the process of ground-water accumulation. When the temperatures are worm, the ground-water circulation is slow, exerting only the small-scale influence on the local instabilities (the paper is published in Croatian.

  2. Responses of Vegetation Growth to Climatic Factors in Shule River Basin in Northwest China: A Panel Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinghui Qi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The vegetation response to climatic factors is a hot topic in global change research. However, research on vegetation in Shule River Basin, which is a typical arid region in northwest China, is still limited, especially at micro scale. On the basis of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data and daily meteorological data, employing panel data models and other mathematical models, the aim of this paper is to reveal the interactive relationship between vegetation variation and climatic factors in Shule River Basin. Results show that there is a widespread greening trend in the whole basin during 2000–2015, and 80.28% of greening areas (areas with vegetation improvement are distributed over upstream region, but the maximum vegetation variation appears in downstream area. The effects of climate change on NDVI lag about half to one month. The parameters estimated using panel data models indicate that precipitation and accumulated temperature have positive contribution to NDVI. With every 1-mm increase in rainfall, NDVI increases by around 0.223‰ in upstream area and 0.6‰ in downstream area. With every 1-°C increase in accumulated temperature, NDVI increases by around 0.241‰ in upstream area and 0.174‰ in downstream area. Responses of NDVI to climatic factors are more sensitive when these factors are limiting than when they are not limiting. NDVI variation has performance in two seasonal and inter-annual directions, and the range of seasonal change is far more than that of inter-annual change. The inverted U-shaped curve of the variable intercepts reflects the seasonal change. Our results might provide some scientific basis for the comprehensive basin management.

  3. Analyzing the impact of climate and management factors on the productivity and soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dan; Fan, Jiazhi; Jing, Panpan; Cheng, Yong; Ruan, Honghua

    2016-01-01

    It is crucial to investigate how climate and management factors impact poplar plantation production and soil carbon sequestration interactively. We extracted above-ground net primary production (ANPP), climate and management factors from peer-reviewed journal articles and analyzed impact of management factor and climate on the mean annual increment (MAI) of poplar ANPP statistically. Previously validated mechanistic model (ED) is used to perform case simulations for managed poplar plantations under different harvesting rotations. The meta-analysis indicate that the dry matter MAI was 6.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=641, sd=4.9) globally, and 5.1 (n=292, sd=4.0), 8.1 (n=224, sd=4.7) and 4.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=125, sd=3.2) in Europe, the US and China, respectively. Poplar MAI showed a significant response to GDD, precipitation and planting density and formed a quadratic relationship with stand age. The low annual production for poplar globally was probably caused by suboptimal water availability, rotation length and planting density. SEM attributes the variance of poplar growth rate more to climate than to management effects. Case simulations indicated that longer rotation cycle significantly increased soil carbon storage. Findings of this work suggests that management factor of rotation cycle alone could have dramatic impact on the above ground growth, as well as on the soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations and will be helpful to quantify the long-term carbon sequestration through short rotation plantation. The findings of this study are useful in guiding further research, policy and management decisions towards sustainable poplar plantations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Organisational climate, biographical factors, and job satisfaction : a national survey of nurses in the Republic of Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Curtis, Elizabeth Ann

    2005-01-01

    Background and Justification for the Study: This study grew out of a longstanding interest in job satisfaction and its relationship with organisational climate. Several research studies have demonstrated the importance of employee job satisfaction. There is, however, a general consensus in the literature on nursing that job satisfaction among nurses is relatively low. The effects of biographical factors, such as age and gender, on job satisfaction have been examined in previous studies but th...

  5. Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yuntao; Xu, Zhiguang; Lu, Bo; Sun, Qinghua; Tang, Wenge; Liu, Xiaobo; Yang, Weizhong; Xu, Xinyi; Liu, Qiyong

    2015-01-01

    China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

  6. Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

    2017-09-25

    Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

  7. Influência de elementos climáticos na mortalidade de cidades brasileiras Climatic factors and total death-rates in brazilian cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João de Barros Barreto

    1946-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, preliminary to a series of investigations that the A. has the purpose to make about the influence of climatic factors particularly upon the prevalence of the most important acute infectious diseases in Brazil, he raises the question whether such factors do affect in this country the total death rates, as it is reasonable to suppose, according to what has been observed in temperate zones of northern and southern hemispheres. The inclusion of absolute humidity among other climatic factors to be dealt with seems justifiable according to Rogers and Stallybrass. Owing to scarcety of reliable data the A. was obliged to limit to a five-years period (1940-1944 the complete proposed investigation, which includes seven of the most important cities, scattered throughout the brazilian territory, from north to south - Belém, recife, Salvador, Rio, S. Paulo, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. Reference is made to their normal climatic conditions and monthly death-rates variations with their mean values and standard deviations. In a first part dealing with seasonal variations only for purposes of comparison, he points out that in there tropical cities of Brazil, without very clear seasonal differentiation, the curve of general mortality reached its highest point in austral autumn season and the remaining four (including Rio near the tropic in the spring, with the exception of Curitiba, where the peak coincided with the summer season. He shows how such important causes of deaths, as diarrheas, common respiratory diseases and tuberculosis, whose seasonal distribution for each one of the seven cities is referred, may explain such seasonal variations. On a second part, a study is made of the general mortality distribution by four-months periods selected in accordance respectively with the highest or lowest values of rainfall and of mean temperature and humidity during period 1940-1944. Finally he compares the monthly waves of such climatic factors and the

  8. Effects of multiple climate change factors on the tall fescue-fungal endophyte symbiosis: infection frequency and tissue chemistry.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brosi, Glade [University of Kentucky; McCulley, Rebecca L [University of Kentucky; Bush, L P [University of Kentucky; Nelson, Jim A [University of Kentucky; Classen, Aimee T [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Norby, Richard J [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Climate change (altered CO{sub 2}, warming, and precipitation) may affect plant-microbial interactions, such as the Lolium arundinaceum-Neotyphodium coenophialum symbiosis, to alter future ecosystem structure and function. To assess this possibility, tall fescue tillers were collected from an existing climate manipulation experiment in a constructed old-field community in Tennessee (USA). Endophyte infection frequency (EIF) was determined, and infected (E+) and uninfected (E-) tillers were analysed for tissue chemistry. The EIF of tall fescue was higher under elevated CO{sub 2} (91% infected) than with ambient CO{sub 2} (81%) but was not affected by warming or precipitation treatments. Within E+ tillers, elevated CO{sub 2} decreased alkaloid concentrations of both ergovaline and loline, by c. 30%; whereas warming increased loline concentrations 28% but had no effect on ergovaline. Independent of endophyte infection, elevated CO{sub 2} reduced concentrations of nitrogen, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. These results suggest that elevated CO{sub 2}, more than changes in temperature or precipitation, may promote this grass-fungal symbiosis, leading to higher EIF in tall fescue in old-field communities. However, as all three climate factors are likely to change in the future, predicting the symbiotic response and resulting ecological consequences may be difficult and dependent on the specific atmospheric and climatic conditions encountered.

  9. [Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

    2011-02-01

    Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural

  10. Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Teurlai

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon.We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections.The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double.In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model

  11. Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial

  12. Impact on total population health and societal cost-effectiveness of including tumour necrosis factor- antagonists in management of ankylosing spondylitis: a dynamic population modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Tran-Duy (An); A. Boonen (Annelies); M.A.F.J. van de Laar (Martin); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract Background: Sequential treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) that includes tumour necrosis factor-α antagonists (anti-TNF agents) has been applied in most of the Western countries. Existing cost-effectiveness (CE) models almost exclusively presented the incremental

  13. Changes in Climatic Factors Influencing the Growth Period of Corn in Fengjie County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaozhen; MAO; Xinli; MOU; Chen; MA; Jiang; HUANG; Lin; YUAN

    2014-01-01

    Under the background of global climate change,we analyze the change tendency of average temperature and amount of precipitation influencing the corn’s growth period. The results show that from March to August,the monthly temperatures show an upward trend,but the rise is different in different months,and the maximum temperature rise is in May. Precipitation in different months has different trends. Climate change brings about favorable conditions at high altitudes in Fengjie,reduces production due to the temperature drop after the beginning of autumn,and increases the pressure on the corn supply.

  14. Climate change as a confounding factor in reversibility of acidification: RAIN and CLIMEX projects

    OpenAIRE

    Wright, R. F.; Jenkins, A

    2001-01-01

    International audience; The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia, southernmost Norway, together cover 17 years (1984-2000) of whole-catchment manipulation of acid deposition and climate. A 1200 m2 roof placed over the forest canopy at KIM catchment excluded about 80% of ambient acid deposition; clean rain was sprinkled under the roof. A climate change treatment (3.7°C increase in air temperature and increase in air carbon dioxide concentrations to 560 ppmv) was superimposed on the clean...

  15. Studies on the Effects of Climatic Factors on Dryland Wheat Grain Yield in Maragheh Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Feiziasl

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In order to study the effects of climate variables on rainfed wheat grain yield, climate data and wheat yield for 10 years (1995-2005 collected from Dryland Agricultural Research Institute (DARI in Maragheh as the main station in cold and semi-cold areas. Collected data were analyzed by correlation coefficient, simple regression, stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that relationships between grain yield with average relative humidity and total rainfall of growing season was positive and significant at 5% and 1% probabilities, respectively. However, evaluation between grain yield with sunny hours and class A pan evaporation was negative and significant (p

  16. Climatic factors directly impact the volatile organic compound fingerprint in green Arabica coffee bean as well as coffee beverage quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, B; Boulanger, R; Dussert, S; Ribeyre, F; Berthiot, L; Descroix, F; Joët, T

    2012-12-15

    Coffee grown at high elevations fetches a better price than that grown in lowland regions. This study was aimed at determining whether climatic conditions during bean development affected sensory perception of the coffee beverage and combinations of volatile compounds in green coffee. Green coffee samples from 16 plots representative of the broad range of climatic variations in Réunion Island were compared by sensory analysis. Volatiles were extracted by solid phase micro-extraction and the volatile compounds were analysed by GC-MS. The results revealed that, among the climatic factors, the mean air temperature during seed development greatly influenced the sensory profile. Positive quality attributes such as acidity, fruity character and flavour quality were correlated and typical of coffees produced at cool climates. Two volatile compounds (ethanal and acetone) were identified as indicators of these cool temperatures. Among detected volatiles, most of the alcohols, aldehydes, hydrocarbons and ketones appeared to be positively linked to elevated temperatures and high solar radiation, while the sensory profiles displayed major defects (i.e. green, earthy flavour). Two alcohols (butan-1,3-diol and butan-2,3-diol) were closely correlated with a reduction in aromatic quality, acidity and an increase in earthy and green flavours. We assumed that high temperatures induce accumulation of these compounds in green coffee, and would be detected as off-flavours, even after roasting. Climate change, which generally involves a substantial increase in average temperatures in mountainous tropical regions, could be expected to have a negative impact on coffee quality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, J. M.; Grau, J. B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.; Cisneros, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such "Climate change" is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China …, and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical

  18. Gas-phase and Ar-matrix SQM scaling factors for various DFT functionals with basis sets including polarization and diffuse functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fábri, Csaba; Szidarovszky, Tamás; Magyarfalvi, Gábor; Tarczay, György

    2011-05-12

    Scaling factors for Pulay's scaled quantum mechanical (SQM) scheme have been determined for four different widely used DFT functionals (PBE, B3LYP, B3PW91, and M06-2X) and for two basis sets (6-31++G** and aug-cc-pVTZ) by fitting computed results to 347 fundamental experimental vibrational frequencies of 33 molecules. Measurements in the gas phase and in solid argon matrices were used independently in the fitting procedure in order to provide a simple method of estimating matrix shifts. The accuracy of the new scaling factors is demonstrated on test molecules including hydrogen-bonded systems and molecules containing chlorine and sulfur atoms.

  19. Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco in China: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chao; Wu, Wei; Wu, Shu-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Bin; Peng, Qing

    2014-02-01

    Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco (FCT) are classified into light, medium, and heavy in China. However, the spatial distribution of FCT aroma types and the relationships among aroma types, chemical parameters, and climatic variables were still unknown at national scale. In the current study, multi-year averaged chemical parameters (total sugars, reducing sugars, nicotine, total nitrogen, chloride, and K2O) of FCT samples with grade of C3F and climatic variables (mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine hours) during the growth periods were collected from main planting areas across China. Significant relationships were found between chemical parameters and climatic variables ( p aroma types were produced using support vector machine algorithms and chemical parameters. Significant differences in chemical parameters and climatic variables were observed among the three aroma types based on one-way analysis of variance ( p aroma type had significantly lower values of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures than regions with medium and heavy aroma types ( p aroma type had significantly lower values of rainfall and relative humidity and higher values of sunshine hours than regions with light and medium aroma types ( p aroma types at national scale.

  20. Depression, Control, and Climate: An Examination of Factors Impacting Teaching Quality in Preschool Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandilos, Lia E.; Cycyk, Lauren M.; Scheffner Hammer, Carol; Sawyer, Brook E.; López, Lisa; Blair, Clancy

    2015-01-01

    Research Findings: This study investigated the relationship of preschool teachers' self-reported depressive symptomatology, perception of classroom control, and perception of school climate to classroom quality as measured by the Classroom Assessment Scoring System Pre-K. The sample consisted of 59 urban preschool classrooms serving low-income and…

  1. Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyan Cai

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1. A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration–environment relationship was identified.

  2. Impact of climatic factors on energy consumption during the heating season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginzburg, A. S.; Reshetar, O. A.; Belova, I. N.

    2016-09-01

    Global and regional climate changes produce a significant effect on energy production and consumption, especially on heating and air conditioning in residential, industrial, commercial, and office rooms. In Russia, with its contracting climate conditions, energy consumption varies a lot in different regions. Thus, we have to review the dynamics of energy consumption during the cold season individually for each region of the country. We analyzed the dynamics of duration and temperature of the heating season in Moscow region and completed a comparative study of heat energy consumption, actual and calculated based on the 'degreedays' concept, in the municipal economy of Moscow during the last decade. Based on the actual data analysis, we proved that conservation of energy resources in a large city relies not so much on a shortening of the heating period as on the growth of atmospheric air temperature in winter. The projected climate warming in the Moscow region in the nearest decades, along with measures of energy conservation, will promote a significant reduction in energy consumption of the municipal economy in winter. The results shown in this article were obtained in the process of preparing and implementing project no. 16-17-00114 by the Russian Science Foundation "Analysis of an impact of the regional climate change on the residential and commercial energy consumption of Russian megacities," within the main area of focus of the Russian Science Foundation, which is "Fundamental Research and Exploration in Main Topical Areas of Focus." The project was implemented within the framework of the scientific area of focus, which is "Reduction of the Risk and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Man-made Disasters" ("Studying Economical, Political, and Social Consequences of Global Climate Changes" problem).

  3. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  4. Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: Effects on soil enzymes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Megan Steinweg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland, were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4˚C above ambient over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

  5. Analysis on the Climatic Change Characteristics of the Snow Cover Days and Its Influence Factors in Suzhou during Recent 50 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou of Anhui Province during recent 50 years. [Method] According to annual snow cover days and correlated data in Suzhou during 1961-2010, by using linear trend method, accumulative anomaly and complete correlation coefficient method, etc., the climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou were analyzed. [Result] In recent 50 years, the sno...

  6. Climate and happiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehdanz, Katrin [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany); Maddison, David [Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark)

    2005-01-05

    Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change.

  7. Climatic factors associated with reproductive performance in English Berkshire pigs and crossbred pigs between Landrace and Large White raised in a subtropical climate region of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usui, Shiho; Koketsu, Yuzo

    2015-12-01

    Our objective was to characterize Berkshire female pigs associated with climatic factors by examining the interactions between two pig groups (pure English Berkshire females and crossbred females between Landrace and Large White) for reproductive performance in a humid subtropical zone. We analyzed 63,227 first-service records of 11,992 females in 12 herds. Climate data were obtained from four weather stations located close to the herds. Mean daily maximum temperatures (Tmax) and daily average relative humidity (ARH) for different time periods around servicing and farrowing of each female were coordinated with that female's reproductive performance data. Multilevel mixed-effects models were applied to the data. There were two-way interactions between the pig groups and either Tmax or ARH for weaning-to-first-mating interval (WMI) and number of total pigs born (TPB; P < 0.05). The WMI in Berkshire sows increased by 0.64 days as Tmax increased from 20 to 30 °C (P < 0.05), whereas in crossbred sows it only increased by 0.09 days over the same Tmax range. In contrast, WMI in Berkshire sows only increased by 0.01 days as ARH increased from 60 to 80 % (P < 0.05), whereas in crossbred sows it increased by 0.32 days. In Berkshire females, TPB decreased by 0.3 pigs as Tmax increased from 20 to 30 °C (P < 0.05), whereas that in crossbred females decreased by 0.4 pigs (P < 0.05). Therefore, we recommend producers apply advanced cooling systems for Berkshire females.

  8. Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amine Toumi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Old world Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL is a vector-borne human disease caused by Leishmania major, a unicellular eukaryotic parasite transmitted by pool blood-feeding sand flies mainly to wild rodents, such as Psammomys obesus. The human beings who share the rodent and sand fly habitats can be subverted as both sand fly blood resource. ZCL is endemic in the Middle East, Central Asia, Subsaharan and North Africa. Like other vector-borne diseases, the incidence of ZCL displayed by humans varies with environmental and climate factors. However, so far no study has addressed the temporal dynamics or the impact of climate factors on the ZCL risk. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Seasonality during the same epidemiologic year and interval between ZCL epidemics ranging from 4 to 7 years were demonstrated. Models showed that ZCL incidence is raising i by 1.8% (95% confidence intervals CI:0.0-3.6% when there is 1 mm increase in the rainfall lagged by 12 to 14 months ii by 5.0% (95% CI: 0.8-9.4% when there is a 1% increase in humidity from July to September in the same epidemiologic year. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Higher rainfall is expected to result in increased density of chenopods, a halophytic plant that constitutes the exclusive food of Psammomys obesus. Consequently, following a high density of Psammomys obesus, the pool of Leishmania major transmissible from the rodents to blood-feeding female sand flies could lead to a higher probability of transmission to humans over the next season. These findings provide the evidence that ZCL is highly influenced by climate factors that could affect both Psammomys obesus and the sand fly population densities.

  9. Indoor climate in hospitals. What are the risk factors for patients?

    OpenAIRE

    Puchkova, Oxana

    2012-01-01

    Creating and maintaining a good microclimate conditions in hospitals very important and significant task. Bad micro-climate can be the reason of the deterioration of the patient health. This work consider large amount of different health hazards such as airborne infectious agents (legionella, fungi, tuberculosis, bacteria and viruses),viruses, irritants and toxic agents (formaldehyde), radiation, anesthetic gases contains in the hospital. All this hazards affects on the patient health conditi...

  10. Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into Decision Support for Strategic Planning in Wildland Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Morehouse; Gregg Garfin; Timothy Brown; Thomas W. Swetnam

    2006-01-01

    An El Niño winter in 1998-99, followed by a strong La Niña winter in 1999- 2000, set the stage for potentially large wildfires in the southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern forests of the United States. Researchers at the University of Arizona organized a three-day workshop to discuss the relationship between synoptic scale climate conditions and wildland fire...

  11. Field measurement and analysis of climatic factors affecting dune mobility near Grand Falls on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogle, Rian C.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Vogel, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Aeolian sand covers extensive areas of the Navajo Nation in the southwestern United States. Much of this sand is currently stabilized by vegetation, although many drier parts of these Native lands also have active and partly active dunes. Current prolonged drought conditions that started in the mid-1990s are producing significant changes in dune mobility. Reactivation of regional aeolian deposits due to drought or increasing aridity from rising temperatures resulting from climate change could have serious consequences for human and animal populations, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure. To understand and document the current and future potential for mobility, seasonally repeated surveys were used to track the location of multiple active barchan dunes. By utilizing Real-Time Kinematic GPS field surveys and simultaneously collecting in-situ meteorological data, it is possible to examine climatic parameters and seasonal variations that affect dune mobility and their relative influences. Through analysis of the recorded data, we examined the fit of various climate parameters, and demonstrate that under the current prolonged drought, wind power is the dominant factor controlling dune mobility.

  12. Do climatic and physical factors affect populations of the blow fly Chrysomya megacephala and house fly Musca domestica?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngoen-klan, Ratchadawan; Moophayak, Kittikhun; Klong-klaew, Tunwadee; Irvine, Kim N; Sukontason, Kabkaew L; Prangkio, Chira; Somboon, Pradya; Sukontason, Kom

    2011-11-01

    The blow fly, Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius), and house fly, Musca domestica L., are medically and forensically important flies. The population dynamic of these flies is essential for both control and forensical aspects. The aim of this study was to investigate the climatic and physical factors affecting the population trend of both species in Chiang Mai province, northern Thailand, using the Geographic Information System (GIS). Based on systematic random sampling, 18 study sites were selected in three districts (Mueang Chiang Mai, Mae Rim, and Hang Dong). Six land use types were involved in the study sites, i.e., disturbed mixed deciduous, mixed deciduous forest, mixed orchard, lowland village, city, and paddy field. Adult flies were sampled every 2 weeks using an in-house prototype reconstructable funnel trap. Two types of bait were used--one with fresh beef viscera for luring M. domestica and the other with 1-day tainted beef viscera for luring C. megacephala. Collections were conducted from May 2009 to May 2010, and analysis of climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity, and light intensity) was carried out. Correlation bivariate analysis was performed initially to determine the relationship between climatic factors and the number of flies. Consequently, an ordinary co-kriging approach, in ArcGIS 9.2, was performed to predict the spatial distribution of flies with land use and climatic factors as co-variables. A total of 63,158 flies were captured, with C. megacephala being the most common species collected (68.37%), while only 1.3% were M. domestica, thus proving that C. megacephala was the most abundant species in several land use types. A significantly higher number of females than males was found in both species. Fly populations can be collected throughout most of the year with a peak in late summer, which shows a positive relation to temperature but negative correlation with relative humidity. C. megacephala was predicted to be abundant in every

  13. Seasonality in the proportions of domestic cats shedding Toxoplasma gondii or Hammondia hammondi oocysts is associated with climatic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schares, G; Ziller, M; Herrmann, D C; Globokar, M V; Pantchev, N; Conraths, F J

    2016-04-01

    A previous study on domestic cats in Germany and neighbouring countries suggested seasonality in shedding Toxoplasma gondii oocysts. The aim of the present study was to elucidate whether this seasonality in shedding could be explained by climatic effects and whether differences between years in the proportions of cats shedding oocysts could also be explained by climatic factors. To this end, a long-term study over a period of 55 months on domestic cats for T. gondii and Hammondia hammondi oocysts was performed and the results compared with climatic data. Using species-specific PCR, T. gondii oocysts were identified in 0.14% (84/61,224) and H. hammondi in 0.10% (61/61,224) of the samples. Toxoplasma gondii oocysts were predominantly observed from summer to autumn, while H. hammondi oocysts were mainly found during autumn and winter. In statistical analyses using climatic data, even differences in parasitological findings between years could be partially modelled using monthly temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation indices and precipitation. Of the three climatic variables analysed, precipitation as an explanatory variable had the lowest impact in the statistical models while those taking only temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation indices into account were sufficiently predictive. Interestingly, time lags between the climatic event and the parasitological findings had to be implemented in all models. For T. gondii, North Atlantic Oscillation indices with a time lag of 7 months and temperature with a time lag of 2 months had the best predictive value. In contrast, temperature (with a time lag of 6 months) and the interaction of precipitation (with a time lag of 5 months) and North Atlantic Oscillation indices (with a time lag of 11 months) were optimal for predicting the seasonality of H. hammondi. These results suggest prominent differences in the life cycles of the two closely related parasites. Previous findings showed that H. hammondi lack avian hosts, in

  14. Astronomy and the Climate Crisis

    CERN Document Server

    Cooke, Antony

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most hotly debated issues of today. Increasing global temperatures will impact all of us. There are more questions than answers, however, and sweeping statements on the subject made by public figures, often with little scientific understanding, only further confuses public opinion. Astronomical factors, apart from passing references to the Sun, are given short shrift in relation to climate change. However, they might be amongst the major determinants of it.  A presentation of those that have been studied that some scientists suspect might be involved are featured in this book. Included is an in-depth look at the physics of climate itself, the potential effects of the Sun, solar storms, sunspots, solar variability, the magnetosphere, solar cycles, influences of nearby planets, orbital factors, cosmic rays, possible galactic influences, monitoring from space, even climate change elsewhere in the solar system, and much more. The greatest challenge climate change scientists face is d...

  15. On the relative importance of the climate change factors along the river Scheldt considering climate scenarios for upstream inland and downstream coastal (mean sea level and surge) boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, V.; Willems, P.; Monbaliu, J.

    2012-04-01

    To improve on the efficacy of flood risk mitigation measures, it is essential to investigate the relative importance of the future impact pressures. This is more so in areas which are found to be hot spots for flooding. One such area was identified in the Scheldt region located in Belgium. The Dendermonde area is a place where both the downstream coastal and the upstream river flow boundary conditions interact and jointly control the flood risk. Downstream of this area, the coastal level changes include both the sea level rise and storm surge changes due to climate change impacts on the wind climate over the North Atlantic and North Sea region. Upstream of the Dendermonde area lies the Dender river which introduces an extra pressure on the Dendermonde area. Against this back drop, impact analysis was performed using a hydrodynamic model that accounts for such changes. The climate data for future scenarios were extracted from the climate databases PRUDENCE (http://prudence.dmi.dk), ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), IPCC AR4 (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php) and CERA (CLM from MPI-M/MaD). Future changes were derived from the large ensemble set of climate model runs and their effects simulated in the hydrodynamic model based on statistically processed climate change scenarios of sea level rise, SLP change and related storm surge changes and upstream runoff due to changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Changes in SLP were transferred to changes in storm surges at the Scheldt mouth (at Vlissingen) based on a correlation model between the SLP at the Baltic Sea and the storm surge level. This model was derived after analysis of SLP composite maps and SLP-surge correlation maps for days where the surge exceeds given thresholds (for different return periods). Correlations between the inland (rainfall, runoff) and coastal climatic changes were considered. The impact analysis to analyze the importance of the pressures for the Dendermonde area was

  16. [Structural analysis for psychosocial factors including health locus of control (HLC) and sense of coherence (SOC) associated with lifestyle-related diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Y; Nakamura, H; Nagase, H; Ogino, K; Ooshita, Y; Tsukahara, S

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to clarify psychosocial characteristics associated with preventive health behavior for lifestyle-related diseases. The author performed objective health examinations and gave questionnaires to 289 men (39.7 +/- 11.8 years, mean +/- SD) and 80 women (32.8 +/- 10.4 years) engaged in office work. Psychosocial factors included lifestyle and perceived stress, as well as the health locus of control (HLC) and sense of coherence (SOC) as newly developed indicators for health behavior. The principal component analysis for men did not extract lifestyle from the psychosocial structures. Multiple regression analysis showed that internal HLC (IHLC), chance HLC (CHLC), professional HLC (PHLC) and stress significantly contributed to SOC. Principal component analysis using psychosocial factors in women showed two psychosocial structures, i.e. the second principal (high SOC, high lifestyle, and low stress) and the 4th principal components (high supernatural HLC, and high PHLC). Both components were negatively correlated with systolic blood pressure. SOC was recognized to be negatively associated with age, stress, and total cholesterol, and positively with IHLC, FHLC, lifestyle, and gamma-GTP using multiple regression analysis for women. These results indicated a distinguishable sex difference regarding the involvement of psychosocial factors including HLC and SOC in objective health. SOC seems likely to be involved not in objective health, but closely with stress, suggesting a direct influence on mental health. Lifestyle should be divided into more detailed categories such as smoking and salt intake. Structural analysis of women suggests that SOC is involved directly or indirectly through lifestyle in objective health, different from men. To further clarify causal relationships between psychosocial factors and risk factors for lifestyle-related diseases, a longitudinal study is necessary based on these results.

  17. Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

    2015-12-01

    Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment

  18. Distributed Lag Nonlinear Modelling Approach to Identify Relationship between Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Colombo District, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiyanga Talagala

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever and its more severe deadly complication dengue hemorrhagic fever is an infectious mosquito borne disease. The rise in dengue fever has made a heavy economic burden to the country. Climate variability is considered as the major determinant of dengue transmission. Sri Lanka has a favorable climatic condition for development and transmission of dengue.  Hence the aim of this study is to estimate the effect of diverse climatic variables on the transmission of dengue while taking the lag effect and nonlinear effect into account. Weekly data on dengue cases were obtained from January, 2009 to September, 2014. Temperature, precipitation, visibility, humidity, and wind speed were also recorded as weekly averages. Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the impact of climatic factors. Results of  DLNM  revealed; Mean Temperature 250C – 270C at lag 1 – 8 weeks, Precipitation higher than  70mm at lag 1- 5 weeks and 20- 50mm at  lag 10 – 20 weeks, humidity ranged from 65% to 80% at lag 10 – 18 weeks, visibility greater than 14 km have a positive impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence while, mean temperature higher than 280C at lag 6 – 25 weeks, maximum temperature at lag 4 – 6 weeks, precipitation higher than 65mm at lag 15 – 20 weeks,  humidity less than 70% at lag 4 – 9 weeks, visibility less than 14km, high wind speed have a negative impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence. These findings can aid the targeting of vector control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.

  19. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity Coefifcients to Climate Factors in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-ying; LIU Qin; MEI Xu-rong; YAN Chang-rong; JU Hui; XUJian-wen

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have important implications in water shore regions, such as Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) plain, where expected warmer and drier conditions might augment crop water demand. Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation in reference evapotranspiration (ET0). In this study, the 51-yrET0 during winter wheat and summer maize growing season were calculated from a data set of daily climate variables in 40 meteorological stations. Sensitivity maps for key climate variables were estimated according to Kriging method and the spatial pattern of sensitivity coefifcients for these key variables was plotted. In addition, the slopes of the linear regression lines for sensitivity coefifcients were obtained. Results showed thatET0 during winter wheat growing season accounted for the largest proportion of annualET0, due to its long phenological days, whileET0 was detected to decrease signiifcantly with the magnitude of 0.5 mmyr-1 in summer maize growing season. Solar radiation is considered to be the most sensitive and primarily controlling variable for negative trend inET0 for summer maize season, and higher sensitive coefifcient value ofET0 to solar radiation and temperature were detected in east part and southwest part of 3H plain respectively. Relative humidity was demonstrated as the most sensitive factor forET0 in winter wheat growing season and declining relativity humidity also primarily controlled a negative trend inET0, furthermore the sensitivity coefifcient to relative humidity increased from west to southeast. The eight sensitivity centrals were all found located in Shandong Province. TheseET0 along with its sensitivity maps under winter wheat-summer maize rotation system can be applied to predict the agricultural water demand and will assist water resources planning and management for this region.

  20. Fisheries and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

  1. Fisheries and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

  2. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  3. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...

  4. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  5. batman Interacts with polycomb and trithorax group genes and encodes a BTB/POZ protein that is included in a complex containing GAGA factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faucheux, M; Roignant, J-Y; Netter, S; Charollais, J; Antoniewski, C; Théodore, L

    2003-02-01

    Polycomb and trithorax group genes maintain the appropriate repressed or activated state of homeotic gene expression throughout Drosophila melanogaster development. We have previously identified the batman gene as a Polycomb group candidate since its function is necessary for the repression of Sex combs reduced. However, our present genetic analysis indicates functions of batman in both activation and repression of homeotic genes. The 127-amino-acid Batman protein is almost reduced to a BTB/POZ domain, an evolutionary conserved protein-protein interaction domain found in a large protein family. We show that this domain is involved in the interaction between Batman and the DNA binding GAGA factor encoded by the Trithorax-like gene. The GAGA factor and Batman codistribute on polytene chromosomes, coimmunoprecipitate from nuclear embryonic and larval extracts, and interact in the yeast two-hybrid assay. Batman, together with the GAGA factor, binds to MHS-70, a 70-bp fragment of the bithoraxoid Polycomb response element. This binding, like that of the GAGA factor, requires the presence of d(GA)n sequences. Together, our results suggest that batman belongs to a subset of the Polycomb/trithorax group of genes that includes Trithorax-like, whose products are involved in both activation and repression of homeotic genes.

  6. Assessment of climatic factors influence on interannual changes in the global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, Maria; Karlin, Lev

    2014-05-01

    A model to assess a number of factors such as TSI, albedo, cloudiness and greenhouse gases including water vapour affecting global surface air temperature (SAT) changes has been developed. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere and the other radiation fluxes transformation were investigated. It's a common knowledge that some part of the incoming solar energy is reflected into space by the Earth's surface, aerosol and cloud particles. A contribution of these components to changes in the reflected solar energy was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. During the period of 2001 - 2010, clouds were found to be the basic contributor to the changes in reflected shortwave radiation. Some part of outgoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, water vapour and cloudiness. A contribution of these components to changes in the absorbed longwave radiation was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. It was estimated that the contribution of water vapour was dominant during the analyzed period. The developed parameterization of global albedo made it possible to assess the contribution of TSI to global SAT changes. Making use of the parameterizations listed above the model has been improved. The model calculations showed that the our projections of global SAT to 2030 were lower than IPCC estimates.

  7. Spatio-temporal variation in vegetation biomass and its relationships with climate factors in the Xilingol grasslands, Northern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Gao

    Full Text Available Knowledge about grassland biomass and its dynamics is critical for studying regional carbon cycles and for the sustainable use of grassland resources. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation of biomass in the Xilingol grasslands of northern China. Field-based biomass samples and MODIS time series data sets were used to establish two empirical models based on the relationship of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI with above-ground biomass (AGB as well as that of AGB with below-ground biomass (BGB. We further explored the climatic controls of these variations. Our results showed that the biomass averaged 99.01 Tg (1 Tg=10(12 g over a total area of 19.6 × 10(4 km(2 and fluctuated with no significant trend from 2001 to 2012. The mean biomass density was 505.4 g/m(2, with 62.6 g/m(2 in AGB and 442.8 g/m(2 in BGB, which generally decreased from northeast to southwest and exhibited a large spatial heterogeneity. The year-to-year AGB pattern was generally consistent with the inter-annual variation in the growing season precipitation (GSP, showing a robust positive correlation (R(2=0.82, P<0.001, but an opposite coupled pattern was observed with the growing season temperature (GST (R(2=0.61, P=0.003. Climatic factors also affected the spatial distribution of AGB, which increased progressively with the GSP gradient (R(2=0.76, P<0.0001 but decreased with an increasing GST (R(2=0.70, P<0.0001. An improved moisture index that combined the effects of GST and GSP explained more variation in AGB than did precipitation alone (R(2=0.81, P<0.0001. The relationship between AGB and GSP could be fit by a power function. This increasing slope of the GSP-AGB relationships along the GSP gradient may be partly explained by the GST-GSP spatial pattern in Xilingol. Our findings suggest that the relationships between climatic factors and AGB may be scale-dependent and that multi-scale studies and sufficient long-term field data are needed

  8. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Vegetation Biomass and Its Relationships with Climate Factors in the Xilingol Grasslands, Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tian; Yang, Xiuchun; Jin, Yunxiang; Ma, Hailong; Li, Jinya; Yu, Haida; Yu, Qiangyi; Zheng, Xiao; Xu, Bin

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge about grassland biomass and its dynamics is critical for studying regional carbon cycles and for the sustainable use of grassland resources. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation of biomass in the Xilingol grasslands of northern China. Field-based biomass samples and MODIS time series data sets were used to establish two empirical models based on the relationship of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with above-ground biomass (AGB) as well as that of AGB with below-ground biomass (BGB). We further explored the climatic controls of these variations. Our results showed that the biomass averaged 99.01 Tg (1 Tg=1012 g) over a total area of 19.6×104 km2 and fluctuated with no significant trend from 2001 to 2012. The mean biomass density was 505.4 g/m2, with 62.6 g/m2 in AGB and 442.8 g/m2 in BGB, which generally decreased from northeast to southwest and exhibited a large spatial heterogeneity. The year-to-year AGB pattern was generally consistent with the inter-annual variation in the growing season precipitation (GSP), showing a robust positive correlation (R2=0.82, P<0.001), but an opposite coupled pattern was observed with the growing season temperature (GST) (R2=0.61, P=0.003). Climatic factors also affected the spatial distribution of AGB, which increased progressively with the GSP gradient (R2=0.76, P<0.0001) but decreased with an increasing GST (R2=0.70, P<0.0001). An improved moisture index that combined the effects of GST and GSP explained more variation in AGB than did precipitation alone (R2=0.81, P<0.0001). The relationship between AGB and GSP could be fit by a power function. This increasing slope of the GSP–AGB relationships along the GSP gradient may be partly explained by the GST–GSP spatial pattern in Xilingol. Our findings suggest that the relationships between climatic factors and AGB may be scale-dependent and that multi-scale studies and sufficient long-term field data are needed to examine the

  9. Climaite - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation study: set up and approaches for data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    N. Mikkelsen, Teis; Beier, Claus; Schmidt, Inger Kappel;

    (based on vegetation analysis) containing each of the 8 treatments. Prior to initiation of the treatments 3rd October 2005, pre treatment measurements and studies were conducted for establishing the initial status of key variables e.g. soil and air temperature, soil moisture, species composition......In a new Danish climate change related field scale experiment, CLIMAITE, we are investigating the impacts of individual and multiple simultaneous global changes on ecosystem processes and functioning in a Danish semi natural grassland vegetation dominated by Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna...

  10. Climate factors affecting fertility after cervical insemination during the first months of the breeding season in Rasa Aragonesa ewes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santolaria, P.; Yániz, J.; Fantova, E.; Vicente-Fiel, S.; Palacín, I.

    2014-09-01

    This study was carried out to examine the impact of several climate variables on the pregnancy rate after cervical artificial insemination (AI) of Rasa Aragonesa ewes. Data were derived from 8,977 inseminations in 76 well-managed flocks performed during the first month of the breeding season (July to October). The following data were recorded for each animal: farm, year, month of AI, parity, lambing-treatment interval, inseminating ram, AI technician, and climatic variables such as mean, maximum and minimum temperature, mean and maximum relative humidity, rainfall, and mean and maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for each day from day 12 before AI to day 14 post-AI. Means were furthermore calculated for the following periods around AI (day 0): -12 to 0, -2 to 0, AI day, 0 to 2, and 0 to 14. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the likelihood of pregnancy decreased when maximum temperature in the 2 days prior to AI was higher than 30 °C (by a factor of 0.81). Fertility was also lower for primiparous ewes and in multiparous ewes with more than five previous parturitions. Other factors with significant impact on fertility were flock, technician, inseminating ram, and a lambing-AI interval longer than 240 days. It was concluded that the 2 days prior to AI seems to be the period when heat stress had the greatest impact on pregnancy rate in Rasa Aragonesa ewes.

  11. Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KeYan Fang; Heikki Seppä

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC). Great earthquakes (M>8), particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.

  12. Metabolic and Kidney Diseases in the Setting of Climate Change, Water Shortage, and Survival Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Richard J; Stenvinkel, Peter; Jensen, Thomas; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Roncal, Carlos; Song, Zhilin; Bankir, Lise; Sánchez-Lozada, Laura G

    2016-08-01

    Climate change (global warming) is leading to an increase in heat extremes and coupled with increasing water shortage, provides a perfect storm for a new era of environmental crises and potentially, new diseases. We use a comparative physiologic approach to show that one of the primary mechanisms by which animals protect themselves against water shortage is to increase fat mass as a means for providing metabolic water. Strong evidence suggests that certain hormones (vasopressin), foods (fructose), and metabolic products (uric acid) function as survival signals to help reduce water loss and store fat (which also provides a source of metabolic water). These mechanisms are intricately linked with each other and stimulated by dehydration and hyperosmolarity. Although these mechanisms were protective in the setting of low sugar and low salt intake in our past, today, the combination of diets high in fructose and salty foods, increasing temperatures, and decreasing available water places these survival signals in overdrive and may be accelerating the obesity and diabetes epidemics. The recent discovery of multiple epidemics of CKD occurring in agricultural workers in hot and humid environments may represent harbingers of the detrimental consequences of the combination of climate change and overactivation of survival pathways.

  13. Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savi, Tadeja; Bertuzzi, Stefano; Branca, Salvatore; Tretiach, Mauro; Nardini, Andrea

    2015-02-01

    Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change.

  14. Climatic factors affecting annual maize yields in the valley of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilley, Maxx

    1997-11-01

    Locally measured climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, clearly affect agriculture, particularly in semi-arid regions. Some climate/agriculture applications, however, do better to focus on meso- and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulatory influences on the location of interest. In the Valley of Oaxaca in the highlands of southern Mexico for example, rain-fed maize yields are as sensitive to interannual variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and a synoptic index of summer 850 hPa-level temperatures in the Mexico-USA border region as they are to locally measured precipitation, a variable to which yields are also strongly related. From 1978 to 1990, August precipitation explains 62 per cent of the variation in yields on the area planted in rain-fed maize in the Valley of Oaxaca, a region highly dependent on that crop. An index derived from 850 hPa-level temperatures and the annual average value of the SOI are comparable, explaining 48 per cent and 68 per cent of maize-yield variation respectively. This suggests that useful information for agricultural decision-making in the Valley of Oaxaca can be obtained by monitoring ENSO and the development of large-scale circulatory patterns. Unlike local observations, these larger scale phenomena may provide advance warning of precipitation conditions during the agricultural season upon which so many people's livelihoods in the region depend.

  15. Association between Cerebral Amyloid Deposition and Clinical Factors Including Cognitive Function in Geriatric Depression: Pilot Study Using Amyloid Positron Emission Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Geum; Kong, Eun-Jung; Cheon, Eun-Jin; Kim, Hae-Won; Koo, Bon-Hoon

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between cerebral amyloid deposition and overall clinical factors including cognitive functions in geriatric depression by using 18F-florbetaben positron emission tomography. Thirteen subjects aged over 60 years who had a history of major depressive disorder and also had subjective memory complaint were included. Of all subjects, 3 subjects judged as amyloid positive, and the others judged as amyloid negative. Their memory, visuospatial functions and attention abilities were negatively correlated with amyloid deposition in specific brain regions, but their language and recognition abilities were not correlated with any region. The amyloid deposition of the whole brain region was significantly negatively correlated with immediate memory. PMID:27776391

  16. Is there a need to include HIV, HBV and HCV viruses in the Saudi premarital screening program on the basis of their prevalence and transmission risk factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alswaidi, F M; O'Brien, S J

    2010-11-01

    In January 2008, the Saudi Arabian health authority included mandatory testing for HIV, HBV and HCV viruses in the premarital screening program. Epidemiologically, there were few justifications for their inclusion as disease prevalences and distributions are poorly understood in the population. This study aims to provide information about HBV, HCV and HIV prevalences and risk factors for disease transmission and so produce evidence for informed decision-making on the inclusion of these infectious diseases in the screening program. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study embedded in the existing national premarital screening program for thalassaemia and sickle cell disease to estimate the prevalence of HIV, HBV and HCV infections (n=74,662 individuals), followed by a case-control study to identify risk factors responsible for infection transmission (n=540). The average HIV prevalence is 0.03%, 1.31% for HBV and 0.33% for HCV. Sharing personal belongings particularly razors, blood transfusions, cuts at barbershops and extramarital relationships showed the highest significant associations with the transmission of these viruses. The prevalences of HIV, HBV and HCV in Saudi Arabia are among the lowest worldwide. However, all the important risk factors associated with transmitting these viruses are significantly present in the Saudi community. Saudi Arabia is financially capable of screening for these infections in the mandatory premarital program and of providing medical care for the discovered cases, but focusing on the health education programs may offset the need to mandatory testing.

  17. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  18. A model of relationship between climate and soil factors related to oxalate content in porang (Amorphophallus muelleri Blume corm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERAFINAH INDRIYANI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Indriyani S, Arisoesilaningsih E, Wardiyati T, Purnobasuki H (2011 A model of relationship between climate and soil factors related to oxalate content in porang (Amorphophallus muelleri Blume corm. Biodiversitas 12: 45-51. The abiotic environment as well as the biotic environment, involved climate and soil affect directly or indirectly to plant growth as well as plant substance. The objective of the research was to obtain a model of relationship between climate and soil factors related to oxalate content in porang corm. Porang corms were collected from five locations of porang agroforestry in East Java. The locations were (i Klangon Village, Saradan Subdistrict, Madiun District; (ii Klino Villlage, Sekar Subdistrict, Bojonegoro District; (iii Bendoasri Village, Rejoso Subdistrict, Nganjuk District; (iv Sugihwaras Village, Nggluyu Subdistrict, Nganjuk District and (v Kalirejo Village, Kalipare Subdistrict, Malang District. Geography variable consist of altitude. Climate variables consist of percentage of radiation, temperature and rainfall. Soil variables consist of electrical conductivity, pH, soil specific gravity, soil organic matter, available of calcium, and cation exchange capacity (CEC. Vegetation variables consist of species of plant tree and percentage of coverage. Porang vegetative growth variables consist of plant height, number of bulbil, canopy diameter, and petiole diameter. Corm variables consist of corm diameter, corm weight, and corm specific gravity. Oxalate variables consist of total oxalate, soluble oxalate, insoluble oxalate, and density of calcium oxalate crystal. Oxalate contents were measured based on AOAC method. All of variables were collected from first to fourth growth period of porang. Data were analyzed by smartPLS (Partial Least Square software. The results showed that there were significantly direct effect between altitude and temperature, altitude and CEC of soil, temperature and CEC of soil, altitude and

  19. Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Cariolle, Daniel; Chauvin, Fabrice; Déqué, Michel; Douville, Hervé; Hu, Rong-Ming; Planton, Serge; Rascol, Annie; Ricard, Jean-Louis; Salas Y Melia, David; Sevault, Florence; Simon, Pascal; Somot, Samuel; Tyteca, Sophie; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

    Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea-ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147-154.

  20. A STUDY OF CHINESE YUAN (RMB APPRECIATION ACCOMPANYING WITH OTHERS FACTORS INCLUDING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI AND THEIR EFFECT ON CHINA ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-fu (Brian LAI

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Chinese Yuan (RMB has been on the trend of appreciation over the last decade, and such a trend will likely be continuing for some years over the next decade. According to some scholars in their published literatures, the appreciation of RMB, the influx of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI has been ongoing accompanying the sustained growing economy in mainland China over the past decade. It is believed that the China economy has an implication from some significant factors including appreciation of RMB, interest rate of RMB, inflation and continuous increase of FDI for the next several years. The present study aims to provide an emphasis on investigation into effect on China economy as a result of appreciation of RMB and FDI together with some other factors, and to provide an outlook on the economy in China for the coming decades. First, a review was carried on relevant background information and development history of RMB and FDI. There are many reasons and factors behind leading to the sustained growth in the economy in China in the last decade and such effects were in coverage in the literature review. An overview of the development of RMB exchange mechanism, and other variables including (1 RMB exchange rate, (2 China interest rate, (3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, (4 Trade Balance of China, (5 Annual Inflation rate in China, (6 Energy Consumption in China, (7 Foreign Exchange Reserve in China, (8 China wages, (9 China External Debt and (10 China Consumer Price Index, which may have effect on the growth of the economy in China is covered in the literature review conducted in Chapter 2.

  1. Korean Early Childhood Educators' Multi-Dimensional Teacher Self-Efficacy and ECE Center Climate and Depression Severity in Teachers as Contributing Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeon Ha; Kim, Yang Eun

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated profiles of South Korean early childhood educators' teacher self-efficacy and contributing factors to teacher self-efficacy. The contributing factors were examined with a focus on early childhood education (ECE) center climate and depression severity in teachers as well as teacher and classroom characteristics. The results…

  2. Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirisena, Pdnn; Noordeen, Faseeha; Kurukulasuriya, Harithra; Romesh, Thanuja Alar; Fernando, LakKumar

    2017-01-01

    Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011) and R studio (2012) and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (pGIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks.

  3. Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirisena, PDNN; Noordeen, Faseeha; Kurukulasuriya, Harithra; Romesh, Thanuja ALAR; Fernando, LakKumar

    2017-01-01

    Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011) and R studio (2012) and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (pGIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks. PMID:28068339

  4. Impacts of changes in climate and socio-economic factors on land use in the Rhine basin. Projections for the decade 2040-2049

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roetter, R.P.; Veeneklaas, F.R.; Van Diepen, C.A. [DLO Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this study was to develop land use projections for the middle of the next century. To separate the influence of climate change from other factors on land use, projections (a Central Projection and two variants) were made under both unchanged and changed climate. They cover the plausible range of alternative land claims of agriculture and urbanization. Impacts of climate change on land suitability as well as overall changes in the acreages of several land use categories are presented. 3 tabs., 7 refs.

  5. Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

    2017-04-01

    In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

  6. Spatio-temporal variation in vegetation biomass and its relationships with climate factors in the Xilingol grasslands, Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tian; Yang, Xiuchun; Jin, Yunxiang; Ma, Hailong; Li, Jinya; Yu, Haida; Yu, Qiangyi; Zheng, Xiao; Xu, Bin

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge about grassland biomass and its dynamics is critical for studying regional carbon cycles and for the sustainable use of grassland resources. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation of biomass in the Xilingol grasslands of northern China. Field-based biomass samples and MODIS time series data sets were used to establish two empirical models based on the relationship of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with above-ground biomass (AGB) as well as that of AGB with below-ground biomass (BGB). We further explored the climatic controls of these variations. Our results showed that the biomass averaged 99.01 Tg (1 Tg=10(12) g) over a total area of 19.6 × 10(4) km(2) and fluctuated with no significant trend from 2001 to 2012. The mean biomass density was 505.4 g/m(2), with 62.6 g/m(2) in AGB and 442.8 g/m(2) in BGB, which generally decreased from northeast to southwest and exhibited a large spatial heterogeneity. The year-to-year AGB pattern was generally consistent with the inter-annual variation in the growing season precipitation (GSP), showing a robust positive correlation (R(2)=0.82, PClimatic factors also affected the spatial distribution of AGB, which increased progressively with the GSP gradient (R(2)=0.76, Pmoisture index that combined the effects of GST and GSP explained more variation in AGB than did precipitation alone (R(2)=0.81, Pclimatic factors and AGB may be scale-dependent and that multi-scale studies and sufficient long-term field data are needed to examine the relationships between AGB and climatic factors.

  7. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  8. Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores.

  9. Prevalence study and risk factor analysis of selected bacterial, protozoal and viral, including vector-borne, pathogens in cats from Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attipa, Charalampos; Papasouliotis, Kostas; Solano-Gallego, Laia; Baneth, Gad; Nachum-Biala, Yaarit; Sarvani, Elpida; Knowles, Toby G; Mengi, Sena; Morris, David; Helps, Chris; Tasker, Séverine

    2017-03-13

    Feline infectious agent studies are lacking in Cyprus. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence and risk factors for various feline infectious agents, including feline vector-borne pathogens (FVBP), in cats from Cyprus. A cross-sectional, descriptive, multicentre study was performed on 174 feline samples [138 owned and 36 shelter-feral, including both healthy (43) and non-healthy (131), cats] from private veterinary clinics from all six districts of Cyprus. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays were used to detect Mycoplasma haemofelis (Mhf), "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum" (CMhm) and "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" (CMt). The population was tested for four FVBP including Bartonella henselae and Leishmania spp. using qPCR, while conventional PCR assays were used to detect Ehrlichia/Anaplasma spp. and Hepatozoon spp. Serological assays were performed to detect Leishmania infantum antibodies, feline leukaemia virus (FeLV) antigen and feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) antibodies. Statistical analysis was performed to test associations and possible risk factors between variables and infectious agents. Ninety-six (55.2%) of the 174 cats were PCR-positive for at least one infectious agent. Forty-six cats (26.4%) were haemoplasma positive, including 13 (7.5%) for Mhf, 36 (20.7%) for CMhm and 12 (6.9%) for CMt. Sixty-six cats (37.9%) were positive for Hepatozoon spp., while 19 (10.9%) were positive for B. henselae, four (2.3%) for Leishmania spp. and one (0.6%) for Ehrlichia/Anaplasma spp. Sequencing revealed the presence of Hepatozoon felis, L. infantum and Anaplasma platys. Of the 164 cats that underwent retroviral serology, 10 (6.1%) were FeLV-positive and 31 (18.9%) were FIV-positive, while L. infantum serology was positive in 7 (4.4%) of the 160 cats tested. Multivariable logistic regression revealed significant associations for various infectious agents including L. infantum with each of Hepatozoon spp. and CMt

  10. Dry Climate as Major Factor Controlling Formation of Hydrated Sulfate Minerals in Valles Marineris on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szynkiewicz, A.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a model for the formation of hydrated sulfate salts (Mg-Ca-Na sulfates) in the Rio Puerco watershed of New Mexico, a terrestrial analog site from the semi-arid Southwest U.S., was used to assess the origin and climate condition that may have controlled deposition of hydrated sulfates in Valles Marineris on Mars. In this analog site, the surface accumulation of sulfate minerals along canyon walls, slopes and valley surfaces closely resemble occurrences of hydrated sulfates in Valles Marineris on Mars. Significant surface accumulations of Mg-Ca-Na sulfates are a result of prevailing semiarid conditions and a short-lived hydrological cycle that mobilizes sulfur present in the bedrock as sulfides, sulfate minerals, and atmospheric deposition. Repeating cycles of salt dissolution and re-precipitation appear to be the underpinning processes that serve to transport sulfate from bedrock to sulfate salts (e.g., efflorescences) and into surface water. This process occurs in the shallow surface environment and is not accompanied by deep groundwater flow because of prevailing dry conditions and low annual precipitation. Generally, close resemblance of surface occurrence and mineralogical composition of sulfate salts between the studied terrestrial analog and Valles Marineris suggest that a similar sulfate cycle, involving limited water activity during formation of hydrated sulfates, was once present in Valles Marineris. Measured as efflorescence, the distributed surface mass of hydrated sulfates in Valles Marineris is relatively small (4 to 42%) when compared to terrestrial settings with higher surface accumulation of sulfate minerals such as the White Sands gypsum dune field. Under semi-arid conditions similar to the studied analog in the Rio Pueurco watershed, it would take only 100 to 1,000 years to activate an equivalent flux of aqueous sulfate in Valles Marineris, when comparing terrestrial annual sulfate fluxes from the Rio Puerco watershed with the amount

  11. Study on the social maturity, self-perception, and associated factors, including motor coordination, of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Fumiko; Okamura, Hitoshi

    2005-01-01

    This study was designed to identify characteristics of social maturity and self-perception in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and to elucidate associated factors, including motor coordination. The subjects were 15 children (14 boys and 1 girl, in elementary school grades 3 to 6). Their characteristics were assessed with the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (M-ABC), the Japanese version of the Social Maturity Scale-R (S-M scale), and Harter's Self Perception Profile for Children (SPPC). The results of the study suggested that most of the subjects had some degree of motor problem and delay of social maturity. They also suggested an association between social maturity and static-dynamic balance, which was one of the indices of motor coordination.

  12. Risk factors for bloodstream infection caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae: A focus on antimicrobials including cefepime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Teena; Marchaim, Dror; Johnson, Paul C; Chalana, Indu K; Tamam, Zeinab; Mohammed, Mazin; Alkatib, Shatha; Tansek, Ryan; Chaudhry, Khawar; Zhao, Jing J; Pogue, Jason M; Kaye, Keith S

    2015-07-01

    Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing pathogens represent increasing challenges to physicians because of rising prevalence, high mortality, and challenging treatment. Identifying high risks and early appropriate therapy is critical to favorable outcomes. This is a 5-year retrospective case-case-control study performed at the Detroit Medical Center on adult patients with bloodstream infection (BSI) caused by ESBL-producing and non-ESBL-producing Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae, each compared with uninfected controls. Data were collected from December 2004-August 2009. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression. Participants included 103 patients with BSI caused by ESBL-producing pathogens and 79 patients with BSI caused by pathogens that did not produce ESBLs. The mean age of patients in the ESBL group was 67 years; of the patients, 51% were men, 77% were black, and 38% (n = 39) died in hospital. The mean age of patients in the non-ESBL group was 58 years; of the patients, 51% were men, 92% were black, and 22% (n = 17) died in hospital. On multivariate analysis, predictors of BSI caused by ESBL-producing pathogens included central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 29.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-288.3), prior β-lactam-/β-lactamase-inhibitor therapy (OR, 28.1; 95% CI, 1.99-396.5), and prior cefepime therapy (OR, 22.7; 95% CI, 2.7-192.4). The only risk factor for BSI caused by non-ESBL-producing pathogens was urinary catheter insertion (OR, 18.2; 95% CI, 3.3-100.3). Prior antimicrobial therapy, particularly with β-lactam, was the strongest unique risk factor for BSI caused by ESBL-producing E coli or K pneumoniae. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: a region by region overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ward, Raymond D; Friess, Daniel A; Day, Richard H; MacKenzie, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Inter‐related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales...

  14. Digital infrared thermography of the scrotum, semen quality, serum testosterone levels in Nellore bulls (Bos taurus indicus and their correlation with climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Rydygier de Ruediger

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective was to study the relationship of climatic conditions with the temperature of the scrotum surface and sperm quality through digital infrared thermography in Nellore bulls, raised extensively. In six bulls held with scrotal thermography Flir E40® cameras, blood samples for serum testosterone and semen collection were taken by electroejaculation every 10 days, with six replications. Climatic factors: ambient temperature, relative humidity, dry globe temperature and temperature of the wet globe were recorded using a globe thermometer (InstruTemp®, ITWTG-2000. Thermal images of the scrotum were analyzed with the Flir Tools® software for the temperatures of scrotal surface, the right and left sides of the scrotum lap thirds: dorsal, middle and ventral testicles; and tails of the epididymis. The semen data and thermograms were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey’s test at 5%. Pearson correlation was used for the surface temperatures of the scrotum, rectal temperature, quantitative and qualitative characteristics of semen and climatic factors. There was a positive correlation (P<0.05 for sperm motility x scrotal temperatures; sperm concentration x scrotal temperatures; climatic factors x rectal temperature. There was a negative correlation (P<0.05 between ambient temperature x sperm concentration. It was concluded that the temperature of the scrotum surface and climatic factors, temperature and humidity, influence the quality of semen. Thermography is recommended as a supplementary examination for reproductive evaluation of bulls.

  15. Expedient parameters of deep horizon mining in respect to climatic factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzin, V.A.; Martynov, A.A.

    1988-01-01

    Studies on forecasting thermal conditions in 670-1026 m deep workings were conducted at 8 mines in the central Donbass region. In these workings rock mass temperature, air temperature and air humidity were 30-40 C, 25.2-30.7 C and 82-100% respectively. Presents methods of temperature forecasting and control. It was established that development working with grouping of adjacent seams into field segments according to formation of climatic conditions is the most suitable method. By grouping worked seams, the temperature at longwall entrances can be lowered by 0.9-1.6 C compared to workings with individual headings. When more seams (three or more) are grouped together, air temperature at longwall entrances can be lowered by 1.2-2.6 C. Reduction in distances between cross cuts from 750 to 300 m provides a further temperature decrease of 0.4-0.7 C. Recommends increasing air flow rate and cross section areas of ventilation headings from 3.5-6 m/sup 3//s to 8 m/sup 3//s and from 4.6 m/sup 2/ to 6.1 m/sup 2/ respectively. Concludes that under conditions similar to those prevailing in the central Donbass region the following measures can be recommended: technological schemes with excavation by strips to the dip; increased cross-sectional areas of workings; roof control by stowing, especially using cooled backfilling material; preventing ventilation air from escaping through excavated space.

  16. Multidecadal anomalies of Bohai Sea ice cover and potential climate driving factors during 1988–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yu; Shao, Dongdong; Gu, Wei; Liu, Chengyu; Li, Qian; Chao, Jinlong; Tao, Jun; Xu, Yingjun

    2017-09-01

    Despite the backdrop of continuous global warming, sea ice extent has been found not to consistently decrease across the globe, and instead exhibit heterogeneous variability at middle to high latitudes. However, the existing studies are focused primarily on high latitude frozen seas, while studies on the long-term variability of sea ice cover at middle latitudes are generally lacking. Afforded by continuous satellite imagery, evolution of sea ice cover over nearly three decades from 1988 to 2015 in the Bohai Sea as a peculiar mid-latitude frozen sea area is reported for the first time. An anomalous trend of slight overall increase of 1.38 ± 1.00% yr–1 (R = 1.38, i.e. at a statistical significance of 80%) in Bohai Sea ice extent was observed over the 28 year period. The detrended annual average ice area (AAIA) was further found to correlate with a slight decreasing mean ice-period average temperature (IAT, r = –0.58, p ice. In addition, the seasonal cycle of ice cover showed a single peak with longer freezing phase than melting phase, due to the different temperature change rate during the freezing and melting phases. The results can provide important references for monitoring the recent climate change in the region and beyond.

  17. Influence of Climate Change and Meteorological Factors on Houston’s Air Pollution: Ozone a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Liu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We examined the past 23 years of ground-level O3 data and selected meteorological parameters in Houston, Texas, which historically has been one of the most polluted cities in the United States. Both 1-h and 8-h O3 exceedances have been reduced significantly down to single digit yearly occurrences. We also found that the frequency of southerly flow has increased by a factor of ~2.5 over the period 1990–2013, likely suppressing O3 photochemistry and leading to a “cleaner” Houston environment. The sea breeze was enhanced greatly from 1990 to 2013 due to increasing land surface temperatures, increased pressure gradients, and slightly stronger on-shore winds. These patterns driven by climate change produce a strengthening of the sea breeze, which should be a general result at locations worldwide.

  18. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and

  19. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

    This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.

  20. Ecological interaction between insect pests, climatic factors and plant traits on abundance of beneficial insects in paddy field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norazliza, R.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The presences of beneficial insects in the paddy field are very important for the ecological systems of paddy field as those insects could help managing the population of the pests. Hence, it will reduce the dependence on pesticides usage to combat the population of insect pests. This study was aimed to study on ecological interaction between environmental factors such as insect pests, plant height, rainfall, temperature and humidity with abundance of beneficial insects in paddy field of Sungai Burong, Tanjung Karang, Selangor for two seasons of paddy planting. Low number of insects composition were recorded in paddy field at Sungai Burong during the vegetative phase and highest during the reproductive and maturity phases for two seasons of paddy planting. The trend of mean composition of insects were gradually increasing from vegetative to maturity phases while, the ecological interaction between insect pests, climatic factors and plant traits were acceptable as good predictor for all beneficial insects collected in this study namely Zygoptera, Gerridae, Coccinellidae and Staphylinidae except for Anisoptera. Therefore, consideration on several stated factors by maintaining or conserving ecology and controlling practices in good manner in paddy field has high potential and more reliable to control insect pests effectively using beneficial insects.

  1. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng;

    2016-01-01

    Summary Canopy height is a key factor that affects carbon storage, vegetation productivity and biodiversity in forests, as well as an indicator of key processes such as biomass allocation. However, global variation in forest canopy height and its determinants are poorly known. We used global data...

  2. Factors involved in spatiotemporal dynamics of submerged macrophytes in a Portuguese coastal lagoon under Mediterranean climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Cristina; Correia, Otília; Marques da Silva, Jorge; Cruces, Anabela; Freitas, Maria da Conceição; Branquinho, Cristina

    2012-09-01

    Submerged macrophytes are key in coastal ecosystems, with important structural and functional roles. Thus, the characterization of the submerged aquatic vegetation dynamics is of prime importance for assessing the ecological status of coastal ecosystems. The main aim of this study was to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of submerged macrophytes biomass in a temporarily open coastal lagoon in Melides, Portugal, and to evaluate the physiological performance of the dominant macrophyte in the system. This lagoon is subject to several disturbances such as the dramatic changes in water physicochemical parameters over time, since temporarily opens to the sea occur renewing the lagoon water content. Moreover it is under a Mediterranean climate with the inherently high temporal variability of precipitation and high temperatures during the summer. Our study shows that the submerged macrophyte community was dominated initially by Ruppia cirrhosa and then replaced by Potamogeton pectinatus, which showed a marked temporal and spatial pattern with extremely high values of biomass in August and in the inner part of the lagoon. The spatial and temporal biomass patterns in submerged macrophytes were mainly related with water level, salinity, pH and transparency. The physiological performance of R. cirrhosa was lower when there was greater biomass accumulation and in extremely shallow waters, whereas physiological vigor seemed to be greater at moderate temperatures and in areas with higher salinity and dissolved oxygen. The data from this study can be used to predict submerged biomass macrophyte responses to extreme water quality changes and to feed a decision support system for the best period to promote the seasonal artificial breaching of the sandy barrier.

  3. Climatic, tectonic, and biological factors affecting the oxidation state of the atmosphere and oceans: Implications for Phanerozoic O2 evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, K.; Tajika, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Earth's atmosphere and oceans have seen fundamental changes in its oxidation state in response to the climatic, tectonic and geochemical variations. Over the past decade, several geochemical proxies have led to significant progress in understanding the paleredox states of ancient oceans. However, a quantitative interpretation of these data for atmospheric O2 levels remain unclear because the relationship between atmospheric O2 levels (pO2) and oceanic redox state depends on several environmental factors, such as terrestrial weathering rate, sea-level stands, and sinking rate of particulate organic matter (POM) in the water column and so on. It is widely thought that the redox-dependent P cycling also plays a crucial role in regulating pO2 because it acts as a negative feedback on a geological timescale. It is important that strength of this feedback for a given pO2 is also modulated by environmental factors, affecting not only O2 levels at steady state but also its susceptibility to environmental changes. In this study, a quantitative role of environmental factors in the oxidation state of Earth's surface environment is evaluated with an oceanic biogeochemical cycle model (CANOPS) coupled with global C cycle model, which enables us to understand the ancient CO2 and O2 evolution. Our results demonstrate that atmospheric O2 level at steady state is affected by CO2 input flux from Earth's interior via changes in biogeochemical cycles, but its response is modulated by several internal factors such as shelf area and POM sinking rate. We also found that early Paleozoic atmospheric O2 levels before the advent of land plant would be determined so that oceans may locate at the "edge of anoxia (EoA)" where the redox-dependency of marine P cycle plays a crucial role in regulating O2 cycle, and that POM sinking rate has a great impact on the EoA. Our findings provide insights into the O2 cycle over the Phanerozoic in response to the climatic and tectonic variations and

  4. What factor generates greater uncertainty in predicting carbon flux for North America: climate characterization or model choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, J.; Wang, W.; Micaelis, A.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    Numerous efforts have begun to characterize a variety of sources of uncertainty in carbon flux estimates from both forward-modeling and inverse modeling approaches. One source of uncertainty is structural, created by the variety of approaches taken to select and characterize the most important biogeochemical processes. To begin to explore this structural uncertainty, we have used an ensemble of well-known models including CASA (Potter et al. (1993), version 2003.04.29), LPJ (Sitch et al. (2003), version 3.1.1-0.9.02), and BGC (White et al. (2000), version 5.0) with a consistent set of inputs for the period 1982-2006 for North America. Initially, the ensemble was run using input climate data interpolated from maximum, minimum and dew-point temperatures, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and incident daily solar radiation at stations from the National Climate Data Center's Global Summary of the Day, incorporating on average about 1900 stations. NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data, available over the United States only, yielded a combined data set of approximately 9000 stations that was then used for the ensemble runs. The combined data set resulted in a significantly wetter surface than with the sparser set, resulting in noticeably larger gross primary production (GPP) estimates by models in the ensemble. Mexico and Canada remain significantly undersampled. Uncertainty due to the choice of a relatively sparse or dense station network was smaller than the structural uncertainty due to model choice.

  5. Climatic factors, time activity budget and breeding success of the Spanish sparrow (Passer hispaniolensis TEMM.)

    OpenAIRE

    Metzmacher, Maxime

    1990-01-01

    This study examines the influence of environmental factors and time budget on reproductive success of Spanish Sparrows (Passer hispaniolensis Temm.). Work was conducted in 1983 in a large cerealiculture zone in Western Algeria. Nest construction was carried out primary by males. The males also spent more time in nest defense than females. Nest construction was more frequent in the morning, but display was more frequent in the afternoon. Both sexes shared incubation. When left alone, or not re...

  6. Including the spatial variability of metal speciation in the effect factor in life cycle impact assessment: Limits of the equilibrium partitioning method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tromson, Clara; Bulle, Cécile; Deschênes, Louise

    2017-03-01

    In life cycle assessment (LCA), the potential terrestrial ecotoxicity effect of metals, calculated as the effect factor (EF), is usually extrapolated from aquatic ecotoxicological data using the equilibrium partitioning method (EqP) as it is more readily available than terrestrial data. However, when following the AMI recommendations (i.e. with at least enough species that represents three different phyla), there are not enough terrestrial data for which soil properties or metal speciation during ecotoxicological testing are specified to account for the influence of soil property variations on metal speciation when using this approach. Alternatively, the TBLM (Terrestrial Biotic Ligand Model) has been used to determine an EF that accounts for speciation, but is not available for metals; hence it cannot be consistently applied to metals in an LCA context. This paper proposes an approach to include metal speciation by regionalizing the EqP method for Cu, Ni and Zn with a geochemical speciation model (the Windermere Humic Aqueous Model 7.0), for 5213 soils selected from the Harmonized World Soil Database. Results obtained by this approach (EF(EqP)regionalized) are compared to the EFs calculated with the conventional EqP method, to the EFs based on available terrestrial data and to the EFs calculated with the TBLM (EF(TBLM)regionalized) when available. The spatial variability contribution of the EF to the overall spatial variability of the characterization factor (CF) has been analyzed. It was found that the EFs(EqP)regionalized show a significant spatial variability. The EFs calculated with the two non-regionalized methods (EqP and terrestrial data) fall within the range of the EFs(EqP)regionalized. The EFs(TBLM)regionalized cover a larger range of values than the EFs(EqP)regionalized but the two methods are not correlated. This paper highlights the importance of including speciation into the terrestrial EF and shows that using the regionalized EqP approach is not an

  7. PHARMACOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF TREATMENT WITH THE INHIBITORS OF TUMOR NECROSIS FACTOR OF THE CHRONIC UVEITIS REFRACTORY TO THE BASIC THERAPY (INCLUDING AN ASSOCIATED WITH JUVENILE IDIOPATHIC ARTHRITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Rudakova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Therapy of chronic uveitis refractory to the basic treatment, in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA is a very complex problem in pediatrics. Substantial progress in this area resulted after the implementation in practice of inhibitors of tumor necrosis factor (TNF, as the most effective in such clinical situation drugs adalimumab and infliximab are considered (although infliximab was not officially approved in JIA. Objective. To estimate the cost effectiveness of TNF inhibitors — adalimumab, and infliximab in chronic uveitis, refractory to the basic therapy (including associated with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. Methods. A modeling on the basis of a comparative prospective cohort clinical study was carried out. The analysis was performed by the method «cost–effectiveness» from a position of health and social accounting perspective. Results. It was shown that the frequency and time of remission did not differ when treatment with infliximab (5 mg/kg at 0–2–6 weeks and further once in 6–8 weeks and adalimumab (24 mg/m2 once in 2 weeks. Adalimumab provides a long-term maintenance of remission (no recurrence in 60% of patients within 40 months of observation, whereas 1 year after the treatment with infliximab the frequency of exacerbations was returned to that observed before therapy. The proportion of patients without relapse in the treatment with infliximab for 40 months was 18.8%. Similar results were obtained in a subset of patients with chronic uveitis associated with JIA (with follow-up of 20 months of in a group of infliximab number patients without relapse was 11.1%, with adalimumab therapy — 63.6%. In the general population of patients with refractory chronic uveitis the factor «cost–effectiveness» calculated for a patient with the maintenance of remission for 3 years with adalimumab therapy was in 2,1–2,8 times less than in the treatment with infliximab. In chronic uveitis associated with JIA, the coefficient of

  8. Psychosocial and behavioral factors associated with risk of sexually transmitted diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus infection, among urban high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, M A; Boyer, C B

    1991-11-01

    The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of multiple psychosocial and knowledge-related antecedent factors that may predict sexual and alcohol and drug use behaviors that are associated with the transmission of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including human immunodeficiency virus infection. Five hundred forty-four ninth-grade urban high school students were surveyed regarding knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to STDs and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Results of multiple regression analyses indicate that higher levels of STD and AIDS knowledge were associated with lower levels of STD and AIDS anxiety (R2 delta = 0.09; p less than 0.001), fewer negative attitudes toward people with AIDS (R2 delta = 0.09; p less than 0.001), stronger perceptions of self-efficacy (R2 delta = 0.03; p less than 0.01), and stronger peer affiliation (R2 delta = 0.02; p less than 0.05). Negative attitudes toward people with AIDS were inversely related to knowledge (R2 delta = 0.08; p less than 0.001), social support (R2 delta = 0.02; p less than 0.01), and perceived self-efficacy (R2 delta = 0.01; p less than 0.05). Predictors of alcohol and drug use included perceived peer norms (R2 delta = 0.08; p less than 0.001) and strong peer affiliation (R2 delta = 0.05; p less than 0.001). The best predictor of sexual risk behavior was alcohol and drug use (R2 delta = 0.07; p less than 0.001). Lower levels of knowledge (R2 delta = 0.14; p less than 0.01) and perceived peer norms (R2 delta = 0.05; p less than 0.05) predicted nonuse of condoms. Our results indicate that several factors relate to adolescent risk for STDs: the connection between peer influence and adolescent risk behaviors, the link between alcohol and drug use and sexual risk behavior, and the role of knowledge in determining nonuse of condoms.

  9. Utilizing Remote Sensing to Explore Hydrological and Climatic Factors of Visceral Leishmaniasis in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczkiewicz, A.; Sweeney, A.; Reid, C.; Seaman, J.; Abubakar, A.; Ritmeijer, K.; Jensen, K.; Schroeder, R.; McDonald, K. C.; Lessel, J.; Thomson, M. C.; Elnaiem, D.; Ceccato, P.

    2014-12-01

    Recent epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Sudan and South Sudan (locally known as Kala Azar) have caused an estimated 100,000 deaths and have renewed the impetus for defining the ecological boundaries of this vector borne disease. In the past 30 years outbreaks have occurred cyclically within this country, but recent shifts in endemicity have necessitated a more robust understanding of the drivers of the disease. Previous work (e.g. Gebre-Michael et al., 2004; Ashford & Thomson, 1991; Hoogstraal & Heyneman, 1969) has suggested that the primary biological vector in this region, the female sand fly Phlebotomus orientalis, exhibits sensitivities to environmental and climatic variables. Results of this study showed a relationship between precipitation and inundation during months of the transmission season (April-July) and the number of confirmed cases in the following September-January period. Particular months of the transmission season with below-average precipitation were better indicators of lagged reports of VL than others. During VL epidemics (2009, 2010, 2011) the month of June exhibited below average precipitation. The two largest epidemics (2010, 2011) were associated with years of below average precipitation in the month of April. Inundation during April-July (AMJJ) also exhibited a strong inverse relationship with reported VL cases in the following September- January (SONDJ). This relationship was best explored when comparing the VL case data of a specific medical center to the inundation anomalies. Results are typified by the Lankien Medical Center analysis where below average inundation during April displays an inverse relationship with VL cases in the following SONDJ. Drought may lead to below average inundation, which could allow for soils to maintain their fissures, thus maintaining the sand fly breeding habitat, resulting in a sustained breeding season for the sandflies (Quate, 1964). Above-average precipitation and inundation might have the

  10. Geohelminths distribution as affected by soil properties, physicochemical factors and climate in Sharkyia governorate Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etewa, Samia E; Abdel-Rahman, Sara A; Abd El-Aal, Naglaa F; Fathy, Ghada M; El-Shafey, Mahmoud A; Ewis, A M G

    2016-06-01

    Soil-transmitted helminths are mainly a group of parasitic nematodes causing human infection through contact with parasite eggs or larvae; they survive in the warm and moist soil of the tropical and subtropical countries. This study was carried out in Sharkyia governorate from October, 2011 to October, 2013, to correlate between the prevalence and distribution of these parasites in the soil and the physicochemical factors affecting the examined samples of the soil. One hundred and twenty samples of different types of soil (clay, silt, sand) from different localities were collected and examined. Diagnosis of geohelminths was confirmed by the recovery of their eggs and larvae with other protozoa by different parasitological methods. The modified baermann method was found to be more efficient in detection of geohelminths larvae than charcoal culture method. Among the examined sites geohelminths were much more numerous in the soil of rural areas especially in the spring and summer seasons, while the contamination of canal banks by geohelminths was the worst (80 %). An insignificant correlation was reported between the soil texture and the number of positive samples in the examined areas while the relationship was directly proportional among (moisture, PH, organic). It appeared that the most common geohelminthic stage was Toxocara spp. eggs besides other types of protozoa especially Balantidium coli cysts. This suggests that factors other than soil texture are important in the prevalence of geohelminths in the soil e.g. temperature, moisture, PH and organic matter. So, to change some of these factors in a trial to control geoparasites transmission but with keeping the environment should be tried. These results also open the way to further studies to highlight the mutual affection between inhabitants of these sites and the prevalence of these geoparasites.

  11. Institutional Factors in the Evaluation by the Entrepreneur of Municipality Investment Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Yuryevich Kokovikhin

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of the survey assessing the satisfaction level of small and medium businesses of the Sverdlovsk region with the factors of the institutional environment created in the area. Modern economics identifies four economic benefits of entrepreneurship development: job generation; productivity growth; innovation and economic growth. Governments, however, can exert either a positive or a negative influence on the extent to which in practice these benefits materialize. The positive result of Government policy is the investment appeal of the territory. We suppose, that the investment appeal of the territory depends on the correlation of the indicator of satisfaction and objective parameters of the institutional environment. Data for the subjective view was the survey of the satisfaction level of small and medium businesses of the Sverdlovsk region with the factors of the institutional environment at the year 2015 (more than 1000 respondents in 72 territories. Data for the objective view was Reports of the Heads of Sverdlovsk region municipalities about the efficiency in the municipal management, made public in 2015. The results of the research allow to develop a series of recommendations to improve the institutional environment for small and medium businesses. The basis for the selection of priority measures to improve the satisfaction of entrepreneurs is the correlation of the indicator of satisfaction and objective parameters of the institutional environment. The recommendations of the paper can be used by State and Municipal Governments in the policy of the increase of territory investment appeal. The scientific results of the research can become the base for further investigations of the correlation between subjective and objective factors of territorial development.

  12. Synergistic in vitro antioxidant activity and observational clinical trial of F105, a phytochemical formulation including Citrus bergamia, in subjects with moderate cardiometabolic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babish, John G; Dahlberg, Clinton J; Ou, Joseph J; Keller, William J; Gao, Wei; Kaadige, Mohan R; Brabazon, Holly; Lamb, Joseph; Soudah, Hani C; Kou, Xiaolan; Zhang, Zhe; Pacioretty, Linda M; Tripp, Matthew L

    2016-12-01

    We examined the clinical safety and efficacy of F105 in 11 subjects with moderate dyslipidemia. F105 is a combination of bergamot fruit extract (Citrus bergamia, BFE) and 9 phytoextracts selected for their ability to improve the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity of BFE. In vitro F105 exhibited a synergistic inhibition of oxygen radical absorbing capacity, peroxynitrite formation, and myeloperoxidase activity. Following 12 weeks of F105 daily, no treatment-related adverse events or changes in body mass were seen. Statistically significant changes were noted in total cholesterol (-7.3%), LDL-cholesterol (-10%), non-HDL cholesterol (-7.1%), cholesterol/HDL (-26%), and apolipoprotein B (-2.8%). A post hoc analysis of 8 subjects with HbA1c > 5.4 and HOMA-IR score > 2 or elevated triglycerides revealed additional statistically significant changes in addition to those previously observed in all subjects including triglycerides (-27%), oxLDL (-19%), LDL/HDL (-25%), triglycerides/HDL (-27%), oxLDL/HDL (-25%), and PAI-1 (-37%). A follow-up case report of a 70-year-old female patient, nonresponsive to statin therapy and placed on F105 daily, demonstrated improved cardiometabolic variables over 12 weeks similar to the subgroup. In summary, F105 was clinically well-tolerated and effective for ameliorating dyslipidemia in subjects with moderate cardiometabolic risk factors, particularly in the individuals with HbA1c > 5.4%.

  13. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  14. Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

  15. Seasonal shift in climatic limiting factors on tree transpiration: evidence from sap flow observations at alpine treelines in southeast Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xinsheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  16. Seasonal Shift in Climatic Limiting Factors on Tree Transpiration: Evidence from Sap Flow Observations at Alpine Treelines in Southeast Tibet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  17. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  18. Factors Affecting Seasonal Walkability in a Cold Climate Community: A Case Study of East Lansing, Michigan, in Collaboration with Michigan State University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne M. WESTPHAL

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available At its most basic level, community involvement has as its primary goal the betterment of the community. In this study, we investigated how community involvement (a form of social capital interrelates with seasonal walkability, cycling, and running in a cold climate community like East Lansing, Michigan. A head of household survey (of 505 individuals in three different neighborhoods was conducted that asked residents about their weekly exercise patterns, and their personal service involvement with others in their neighborhoods. Poor walkability in a community is thought to be an important limiting factor to human health and a contributing factor to obesity due to an increased dependency on the automobile. Previous studies show strong correlations between physical characteristics of the built environment and the incidence of obesity in a community. In this study, we integrated dimensions of seasonal weather phenomena, socio-demographic characteristics of neighborhoods (including current levels of physical activity, and expressions of social capital into a social-environmental model of the built environment and human health. Results of this communityuniversity partnership suggest ways to enhance the city’s ability to mobilize community resources, and prioritize its own resources, in creating a more pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly environment for its citizens. It also provides insight into how, when and why citizens engage in community life, and what public officials can do to improve long-term citizen involvement in issues affecting health and quality of life in East Lansing, Michigan, USA.

  19. Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

    2014-07-01

    This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 - 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. - May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. - Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons.

  20. Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

    2014-07-17

    This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 - 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. - May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. - Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons.

  1. Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Van Loon

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced basins and a glaciermelt drought is a deficiency in the glaciermelt discharge peak in summer in glacierised basins. In 21 catchments in Austria and Norway we studied the meteorological conditions in the seasons preceding and at the time of snowmelt and glaciermelt drought events. Snowmelt droughts in Norway were mainly controlled by below-average winter precipitation, while in Austria both temperature and precipitation played a role. For glaciermelt droughts, the effect of below-average summer air temperature was dominant, both in Austria and Norway. Subsequently, we investigated the impacts of temperature-related drought types (i.e. snowmelt and glaciermelt drought, but also cold and warm snow season drought and rain-to-snow-season drought. In historical archives and drought databases for the US and Europe many impacts were found that can be attributed to these temperature-related hydrological drought types, mainly in the agriculture and electricity production (hydropower sectors. However, drawing conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of different drought types from reported impacts is difficult, mainly because of reporting biases and the inevitably limited spatial and temporal scales of the information. Finally, this study shows that complete integration of quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative analysis of impacts of temperature-related droughts is not yet possible. Analysis of selected events, however, points out that it can be a

  2. Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Loon, A. F.; Ploum, S. W.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Garnier, E.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-04-01

    For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced basins and a glaciermelt drought is a deficiency in the glaciermelt discharge peak in summer in glacierised basins. In 21 catchments in Austria and Norway we studied the meteorological conditions in the seasons preceding and at the time of snowmelt and glaciermelt drought events. Snowmelt droughts in Norway were mainly controlled by below-average winter precipitation, while in Austria both temperature and precipitation played a role. For glaciermelt droughts, the effect of below-average summer air temperature was dominant, both in Austria and Norway. Subsequently, we investigated the impacts of temperature-related drought types (i.e. snowmelt and glaciermelt drought, but also cold and warm snow season drought and rain-to-snow-season drought). In historical archives and drought databases for the US and Europe many impacts were found that can be attributed to these temperature-related hydrological drought types, mainly in the agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) sectors. However, drawing conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of different drought types from reported impacts is difficult, mainly because of reporting biases and the inevitably limited spatial and temporal scales of the information. Finally, this study shows that complete integration of quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative analysis of impacts of temperature-related droughts is not yet possible. Analysis of selected events, however, points out that it can be a promising research

  3. Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Doris; Pavel, Jutta; Mayer, Geert; Geisler, Peter; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

    2017-06-01

    Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls). A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1). The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Multiple factors, including non-motor impairments, influence decision making with regard to exercise participation in Parkinson's disease: a qualitative enquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Christine; Clemson, Lindy; Canning, Colleen G

    2016-01-01

    To explore how the meaning of exercise and other factors interact and influence the exercise behaviour of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) enrolled in a 6-month minimally supervised exercise program to prevent falls, regardless of whether they completed the prescribed exercise or not. This qualitative study utilised in-depth semi-structured interviews analysed using grounded theory methodology. Four main themes were constructed from the data: adapting to change and loss, the influence of others, making sense of the exercise experience and hope for a more active future. Participation in the PD-specific physiotherapy program involving group exercise provided an opportunity for participants to reframe their identity of their "active" self. Three new influences on exercise participation were identified and explored: non-motor impairments of apathy and fatigue, the belief in a finite energy quota, and the importance of feedback. A model was developed incorporating the themes and influences to explain decision-making for exercise participation in this group. Complex and interacting issues, including non-motor impairments, need to be considered in order to enhance the development and ongoing implementation of effective exercise programmes for people with PD. Exercise participation can assist individuals to reframe their identity as they are faced with losses associated with Parkinson's disease and ageing. Non-motor impairments of apathy and fatigue may influence exercise participation in people with Parkinson's disease. Particular attention needs to be paid to the provision of feedback in exercise programs for people with Parkinson's disease as it important for their decision-making about continuing exercise.

  5. Retrospective analysis of factors associated with outcome of proximal interphalangeal joint arthrodesis in 82 horses including Warmblood and Thoroughbred sport horses and Quarter Horses (1992-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herthel, T D; Rick, M C; Judy, C E; Cohen, N D; Herthel, D J

    2016-09-01

    Outcomes associated with arthrodesis of the proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joint in Quarter Horses used for Western performance activities are well documented but little is known regarding outcomes for other types of horses. To identify factors associated with outcomes, including breed and activity, after arthrodesis of the PIP joint in Warmbloods, Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses. Retrospective case series. Surgical case records of 82 Quarter Horses principally engaged in Western performance and Thoroughbred or Warmblood breeds principally engaged in showing, showjumping and dressage, with arthrodesis of the PIP joint were reviewed. Arthrodesis was performed with either 3 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion, a dynamic compression plate (DCP) with 2 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion, or a locking compression plate (LCP) with 2 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion. Demographic data, clinical presentation, radiographic findings, surgical technique, post operative treatment and complications were recorded. Long-term follow-up was obtained for all 82 horses. Osteoarthritis of the PIP joint was the most common presenting condition requiring arthrodesis, which was performed with either the 3 screw technique (n = 41), DCP fixation (n = 22), or LCP fixation (n = 19). Post operatively, 23/31 (74%) Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and 44/51 (87%) Quarter Horses achieved successful outcomes. Thirteen of 23 (57%) Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and 24 of 38 (63%) Quarter Horses, used for athletic performance, returned to successful competition. Within this subgroup of horses engaged in high-level activity, regardless of breed type, horses undergoing hindlimb arthrodesis were significantly more likely to return to successful competition (73%; 33/45) than those with forelimb arthrodesis (25%; 4/16, P = 0.002). Arthrodesis of the PIP joint in Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses results in a favourable outcome for return to

  6. Laser Microdissection Unravels Cell-Type-Specific Transcription in Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Roots, Including CAAT-Box Transcription Factor Gene Expression Correlating with Fungal Contact and Spread1[W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogekamp, Claudia; Arndt, Damaris; Pereira, Patrícia A.; Becker, Jörg D.; Hohnjec, Natalija; Küster, Helge

    2011-01-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) are the most widespread symbioses on Earth, promoting nutrient supply of most terrestrial plant species. To unravel gene expression in defined stages of Medicago truncatula root colonization by AM fungi, we here combined genome-wide transcriptome profiling based on whole mycorrhizal roots with real-time reverse transcription-PCR experiments that relied on characteristic cell types obtained via laser microdissection. Our genome-wide approach delivered a core set of 512 genes significantly activated by the two mycorrhizal fungi Glomus intraradices and Glomus mossae. Focusing on 62 of these genes being related to membrane transport, signaling, and transcriptional regulation, we distinguished whether they are activated in arbuscule-containing or the neighboring cortical cells harboring fungal hyphae. In addition, cortical cells from nonmycorrhizal roots served as a reference for gene expression under noncolonized conditions. Our analysis identified 25 novel arbuscule-specific genes and 37 genes expressed both in the arbuscule-containing and the adjacent cortical cells colonized by fungal hyphae. Among the AM-induced genes specifying transcriptional regulators were two members encoding CAAT-box binding transcription factors (CBFs), designated MtCbf1 and MtCbf2. Promoter analyses demonstrated that both genes were already activated by the first physical contact between the symbionts. Subsequently, and corresponding to our cell-type expression patterns, they were progressively up-regulated in those cortical areas colonized by fungal hyphae, including the arbuscule-containing cells. The encoded CBFs thus represent excellent candidates for regulators that mediate a sequential reprogramming of root tissues during the establishment of an AM symbiosis. PMID:22034628

  7. Meteorological conditions, climate change, new emerging factors, and asthma and related allergic disorders. A statement of the World Allergy Organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Holgate, Stephen T; Pawankar, Ruby; Ledford, Dennis K; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Al-Ahmad, Mona; Al-Enezi, Fatma; Al-Muhsen, Saleh; Ansotegui, Ignacio; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E; Baker, David J; Bayram, Hasan; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Boulet, Louis-Philippe; Buters, Jeroen T M; D'Amato, Maria; Dorsano, Sofia; Douwes, Jeroen; Finlay, Sarah Elise; Garrasi, Donata; Gómez, Maximiliano; Haahtela, Tari; Halwani, Rabih; Hassani, Youssouf; Mahboub, Basam; Marks, Guy; Michelozzi, Paola; Montagni, Marcello; Nunes, Carlos; Oh, Jay Jae-Won; Popov, Todor A; Portnoy, Jay; Ridolo, Erminia; Rosário, Nelson; Rottem, Menachem; Sánchez-Borges, Mario; Sibanda, Elopy; Sienra-Monge, Juan José; Vitale, Carolina; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of allergic airway diseases such as asthma and rhinitis has increased dramatically to epidemic proportions worldwide. Besides air pollution from industry derived emissions and motor vehicles, the rising trend can only be explained by gross changes in the environments where we live. The world economy has been transformed over the last 25 years with developing countries being at the core of these changes. Around the planet, in both developed and developing countries, environments are undergoing profound changes. Many of these changes are considered to have negative effects on respiratory health and to enhance the frequency and severity of respiratory diseases such as asthma in the general population. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, variability in temperature, increased air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods - all of which can put the respiratory health of the public at risk. These changes in climate and air quality have a measurable impact not only on the morbidity but also the mortality of patients with asthma and other respiratory diseases. The massive increase in emissions of air pollutants due to economic and industrial growth in the last century has made air quality an environmental problem of the first order in a large number of regions of the world. A body of evidence suggests that major changes to our world are occurring and involve the atmosphere and its associated climate. These changes, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere, biodiversity, and the human environment. Mitigating this huge health impact and reversing the effects of these changes are major challenges. This statement of the World Allergy Organization (WAO) raises the importance of this health hazard and highlights the facts on climate-related health impacts

  8. Relationship between Ectomycorrhizal Fruiting Bodies and Climatic and Environmental Factors in Naejangsan National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Seog-Ki; Kim, Sang-Wook

    2015-06-01

    We collected and identified 5,721 ectomycorrhizal fruiting bodies (EcM) from Naejangsan National Park from June 2004 to 2013, belonging to 1 phylum, 1 class, 6 orders, 19 families, 40 genera, and 196 species. Of these, 2,249 individuals were identified as 89 species belonging to 11 genera in 7 families in the Agaricales; 1,511 were identified as 43 species belonging to 2 genera in 1 family in the Russulales; 1,132 were identified as 50 species belonging to 21 genera in 6 families in the Boletales; 793 were identified as 8 species belonging to 3 genera in 2 families in the Cantharellales; 29 were identified as 3 species belonging to 2 genera in 2 families in the Thelephorales; and 7 were identified as 3 species belonging to 1 genus in 1 family in the Gomphales. Thus, most of the EcMs identified belonged to the following 3 orders: Agaricales, Russulales, and Boletales. Russulaceae were most common (43 species), followed by Boletaceae (39 species), and Amanitaceae (27 species); most individuals were Russulaceae (1,511), followed by Hydnagiaceae (1,071) and Boletaceae (804). The monthly distribution showed that the greatest number of individuals and species of EcM, including the dominant ones, occur around July~September at an elevation of 200~299 m, diminishing markedly above 600 m. The greatest number of individuals and species, including the dominant ones, were collected in the period with average temperatures 25.0~26.9℃, lows of 21.0~22.9℃, and highs of 30.0~31.9℃, relative humidity > 76%, and rainfall > 400 mm.

  9. Impact Analysis of Climate Factors on Urban Color%气候因素对城市色彩的影响分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何瑛

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the concept of urban color and urban color planning were defined at the beginning, then the author demonstrated whether the climate had the influence in urban color. According to the classification of urban color, the paper respectively analysed the different effects of climate in the natural color and the artificial color of the city. In the analysis of artificial color, the author utilized the concept of "three elements of the urban color" to further refine the analysis of the object, and divided the urban color into three elements, including physical properties of color, form and materials. The influence of climate in these three factors were respectively analysed. For mitigating the greenhouse effect, this paper indicated the impact of urban color on the urban temperature, and solutions about how to use the urban color to reduce the Earth's temperature. Finally, this paper outlined how urban color planning methods were used in China's urban planning.%明确了城市色彩和城市色彩规划的概念,对气候影响城市色彩进行了分析.根据城市色彩的分类,分别分析气候因素对城市自然色以及人工色的不同影响.在分析人工色时,采用了"城市色彩三要素"的概念,即城市色彩的物理属性、构成性以及材质三要素,对这三个要素分别进行了气候影响力的分析.并针对当前温室效应的热点问题,指出城市色彩对城市气温的影响,以及如何利用城市色彩来达到减轻温室效应的目的.最后简要提出了城市色彩规划的一些应用原则.

  10. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  11. Nest-climatic factors affect the abundance of biting flies and their effects on nestling condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-de la Puente, Josué; Merino, Santiago; Lobato, Elisa; Aguilar, Juan Rivero-de; del Cerro, Sara; Ruiz-de-Castañeda, Rafael; Moreno, Juan

    2010-11-01

    The first step in the establishment of a host-biting fly relationship is host location. While a number of studies highlight the role of host emitted products as important cues affecting host location by biting flies, the role of host temperature is far from clear. We investigated the role of different nest microclimatic variables affecting the interaction between pied flycatchers and two biting flies: black flies and biting midges. Biting midge abundances increased with temperature inside the nest, supporting the potential importance of nest temperature as a cue used by insects to localize their hosts. The possibility that biting fly infestations were associated to ecological conditions in the vicinity of the nests is also discussed. Furthermore, we found a negative association between nestling weight (including tarsus length as a covariate in the analyses) and the interaction between the abundance of biting midges and the presence/absence of black flies in nests. The potential negative effect of these ectoparasites on nestling weight (condition index) and potential differences in the bird phenotypic/genetic quality associated with nest site choice and parasite infestations are considered.

  12. Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

  13. Geographical distribution patterns of Macromitrium and Orthotrichum in China and their relationship with climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahong Ma

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A maximum entropy algorithm modelling program (MaxEnt 3.3.2 and a GIS software system (ArcGIS9.3 were used to study and model the distribution of 131 occurrences of Macromitrium and 66 occurrences of Orthotrichum in China in relation to 19 bioclimatic variables and percent tree cover. The information obtained can help predict the potential distribution range of these species in China, and also provide an understanding of factors influencing their current geographical distribution patterns so as to achieve better conservation of species diversity in the future. The species occurrence data were obtained from field work, relevant literature and herbarium specimens examined. Based on the integrated habitat suitability indices calculated, results show that Macromitrium have higher habitat suitability in the southeast and some southern provinces of China, i.e., in Zhejiang, Taiwan, Hainan, Fujian, Chongqing, and lower distribution probability in northwest, northeast and some northern provinces. Likewise, Orthotrichum has higher habitatsuitability in Yunnan, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Guizhou, Shanxi, Sichuan and Hebei, and lower distributional probability in the southwest. The distribution probability of Macromitrium increases with increased annual precipitation, precipitation in the wettest month, and in both the coldest and wettest quarter of the year. The distribution probability of Orthotrichum increases rapidly with increasing annual precipitation upto 200 mm, and then decreases when annual precipitation exceeds 200 mm. The distribution probability of Orthotrichum reaches its highest peak when the mean temperature of the warmest quarter is between 15 and 20℃. The relationship between species number (Y of Macromitrium and annual rainfall (X1 is described by the equation Y = –0.0369+0.0003X1 (r = 0.5347, P<0.001, n = 131, and with the annual temperature (X2 by Y = 0.0831e0.001X2 (r = 0.5525, P<0.001, n = 131. The relationship between species

  14. Site specific diel methane emission mechanisms in landfills: A field validated process based on vegetation and climate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Danhui; Hao, Yongxia; Shimaoka, Takayuki; Nakayama, Hirofumi; Chai, Xiaoli

    2016-11-01

    Diel methane emission fluxes from a landfill that was covered by vegetation were investigated to reveal the methane emission mechanisms based on the interaction of vegetation characteristics and climate factors. The methane emissions showed large variation between daytime and nighttime, and the trend of methane emissions exhibited clear bimodal patterns from both Setaria viridis- and Neyraudia reynaudiana-covered areas. Plants play an important role in methane transportation as well as methane oxidation. The notable decrease in methane emissions after plants were cut suggests that methane transportation via plants is the primary way of methane emissions in the vegetated areas of landfill. Within plants, the methane emission fluxes were enhanced due to a convection mechanism. Given that the methane emission flux is highly correlated with the solar radiation during daytime, the convection mechanism could be attributed to the increase in solar radiation. Whereas the methane emission flux is affected by a combined impact of the wind speed and pedosphere characteristics during nighttime. An improved understanding of the methane emission mechanisms in vegetated landfills is expected to develop a reliable model for landfill methane emissions and to attenuate greenhouse gas emissions from landfills.

  15. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broutin Hélène

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies. Methods Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country. Results Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature. Conclusions Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

  16. The altitude effect on the climatic factors controlling debris flows activation: the Marderello Torrent case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palladino, Michela; Turconi, Laura; Savio, Gabriele; Tropeano, Domenico

    2015-04-01

    The left Cenischia valley includes some of the best known alpine basins prone to debris flow in Northwestern Italian Alps. In particular, in the Marderello catchment (6,6 km²), a left tributary of the Cenischia river, 31 important debris flood/flow events occurred during the last one hundred years. According to the chronicles of the last three centuries, events with significant volumes are on the average liable to take place every 3-4 years, whereas minor events may occur even twice per year. Due to the high frequency of activations, the site is of relevant interest for monitoring purposes. Since the early nineties, the CNR IRPI equipped the Marderello basin with meteorological monitoring devices. The rainfall monitoring network consists of four rain gauges, placed at different elevations, between 800 m a.s.l. and 2854 m a.s.l. Other meteorological data (air moisture and temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction) are provided by three stations located at 3150, 2150 and 830 m a.s.l. The main objective of the monitoring is the investigation of the triggering conditions for debris flows initiation. In the scientific literature the prediction of debris flows is often tackled by the use of empirical methods, based on the analysis of past activation and related rainfall triggering conditions. The effectiveness of these methods strictly depends on the representativeness of the meteorological monitoring stations used to collect the data. In complex orography sites, as the Alpine catchments are, the remarkable elevation gaps between the source areas of debris flows and the rain gauges position make it difficult to identify the triggering rainfall. To attain more reliable results, the elevation effect must be considered. In fact, elevation influences the precipitation in terms of cumulative values and, as a result of the temperature gradient, it controls the nature of the precipitation (rain/snow). In the present study we use the rainfall and temperature

  17. Addressing climate challenges in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Simone; Monaghan, Andrew; Done, James

    2012-04-01

    Advanced Study Program/Early Career Scientist Assembly Workshop on Regional Climate Issues in Developing Countries; Boulder, Colorado, 19-22 October 2011 The Early Career Scientist Assembly (ECSA) and the Advanced Study Program of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) invited 35 early-career scientists from nearly 20 countries to attend a 3-day workshop at the NCAR Mesa Laboratory prior to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Open Science Conference in October 2011. The goal of the workshop was to examine a range of regional climate challenges in developing countries. Topics included regional climate modeling, climate impacts, water resources, and air quality. The workshop fostered new ideas and collaborations between early-career scientists from around the world. The discussions underscored the importance of establishing partnerships with scientists located in typically underrepresented countries to understand and account for the local political, economic, and cultural factors on which climate change is superimposed.

  18. Organizational climate and family life: how these factors affect the status of women faculty at one medical school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shollen, S Lynn; Bland, Carole J; Finstad, Deborah A; Taylor, Anne L

    2009-01-01

    To compare men and women faculty's family situations and perceptions of organizational climate. In 2005, the authors sent an electronic survey to full-time faculty at the University of Minnesota Medical School to assess their perceptions of professional relationships, mentoring, obstacles to satisfaction, policies, circumstances that contribute to departure, gender equality, family situations, and work life. Of 615 faculty, 354 (57%) responded. Women and men were equally productive and worked similar total hours. Women were less likely to have partners/spouses, were more likely to have partners/spouses who were employed, and devoted more time to household tasks. Compared with men, women reported more experience with obstacles to career success and satisfaction and with circumstances that contribute to departure. More women than men perceived that they were expected to represent the perspective of their gender, that they were constantly under scrutiny by colleagues, that they worked harder than colleagues worked in order to be perceived as legitimate, and that there were "unwritten rules" and bias against women. Few faculty reported overt discrimination; however, more women than men perceived gender discrimination in promotion, salary, space/resources, access to administrative staff, and graduate student/fellow assignment. Work-life and family-life factors served as obstacles to satisfaction and retention of the women faculty studied. Many of these factors reflect challenges attributable to subtle gender bias and the intersection of work and family life. The authors provide examples showing that medical schools can implement policy changes that support faculty who must balance work and family responsibilities. Identification and elimination of gender bias in areas such as promotion, salary, and resource allocation is essential.

  19. Correlation of eco-hydrographic benefit and height increment of Robinia pseudoacacia stand with climatic environmental factors in Yellow River Delta Wetland of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Peng; YANG Hui-ling; ZHANG Guang-can; ZHOU Ze-fu

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between eco-hydrographic benefit of forest vegetation and climatic environmental factors is one of the focuses in the research on environmental protection and ecosystem countermeasures in Wetland. The runoff, sediment and soil moisture rate dynamics in Robinia pseudoacacia plantation and its clearcut area were investigated in the natural runoff experiment plots in Yellow River Delta Wetland, Shandong Province, China. The correlation of height increment of R. pseudoacacia with nine climate factors such as light, water, heat, etc. was analyzed by stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the amounts of runoff and sediment in clearcut area of R. pseudoacacia were 53.9%-150.8% and 172.8%-387.1% higher than that in Robinia pseudoacacia plantation, respectively. The runoff peak value in R. pseudoacacia stand was obviously lower than that in clerarcut area, meantime, the occurrence of runoff peak in R. pseudoacacia stand was 25 min later than in its clerarcut area. The soil moisture rates in R. pseudoacacia stand and its clearcut varied periodically with annual rainfall precipitation in both dry season and humid season. The annual mean soil moisture rate in R. pseudoacacia stand was 23.3%-25.6% higher than that in its clearcut area. Meanwhile, a regression model reflecting the correlation between the height increment of R. pseudoacacia and climatic factors was developed by stepwise regression procedure method. It showed that the light was the most important factor for the height increment of R. pseudoacacia, followed by water and heat factors.

  20. An information value based analysis of physical and climatic factors affecting dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tripathi Nitin

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases are the most dreaded worldwide health problems. Although many campaigns against it have been conducted, Dengue Fever (DF and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF are still the major health problems of Thailand. The reported number of dengue incidences in 1998 for the Thailand was 129,954, of which Sukhothai province alone reported alarming number of 682. It was the second largest epidemic outbreak of dengue after 1987. Government arranges the remedial facilities as and when dengue is reported. But, the best way to control is to prevent it from happening. This will be possible only when knowledge about the relationship of DF/DHF with climatic and physio-environmental agents is discovered. This paper explores empirical relationship of climatic factors rainfall, temperature and humidity with the DF/DHF incidences using multivariate regression analysis. Also, a GIS based methodology is proposed in this paper to explore the influence of physio-environmental factors on dengue incidences. Remotely sensed data provided important data about physical environment and have been used for many vector borne diseases. Information Values (IV method was utilised to derive influence of various factors in the quantitative terms. Researchers have not applied this type of analysis for dengue earlier. Sukhothai province was selected for the case study as it had high number of dengue cases in 1998 and also due to its diverse physical setting with variety of land use/land cover types. Results Preliminary results demonstrated that physical factors derived from remotely sensed data could indicate variation in physical risk factors affecting DF/DHF. A composite analysis of these three factors with dengue incidences was carried out using multivariate regression analysis. Three empirical models ER-1, ER-2 and ER-3 were evaluated. It was found that these three factors have significant relation with DF/DHF incidences and can be related to

  1. Solar magnetic fields and terrestrial climate

    CERN Document Server

    Georgieva, Katya; Kirov, Boian

    2014-01-01

    Solar irradiance is considered one of the main natural factors affecting terrestrial climate, and its variations are included in most numerical models estimating the effects of natural versus anthropogenic factors for climate change. Solar wind causing geomagnetic disturbances is another solar activity agent whose role in climate change is not yet fully estimated but is a subject of intense research. For the purposes of climate modeling, it is essential to evaluate both the past and the future variations of solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity which are ultimately due to the variations of solar magnetic fields. Direct measurements of solar magnetic fields are available for a limited period, but can be reconstructed from geomagnetic activity records. Here we present a reconstruction of total solar irradiance based on geomagnetic data, and a forecast of the future irradiance and geomagnetic activity relevant for the expected climate change.

  2. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors - a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-03-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events.

  3. Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

  4. Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Duo; Wu, Qigang

    2015-08-28

    Anthropogenic forcings have contributed to global and regional warming in the last few decades and likely affected terrestrial precipitation. Here we examine changes in major Köppen climate classes from gridded observed data and their uncertainties due to internal climate variability using control simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950-2010, and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones, shrinkage in polar and midlatitude continental climates, poleward shifts in temperate, continental and polar climates, and increasing average elevation of tropical and polar climates. Using CMIP5 multi-model averaged historical simulations forced by observed anthropogenic and natural, or natural only, forcing components, we find that these changes of climate types since 1950 cannot be explained as natural variations but are driven by anthropogenic factors.

  5. Human factors issues and approaches in the spatial layout of a space station control room, including the use of virtual reality as a design analysis tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Joseph P., II

    1994-01-01

    Human Factors Engineering support was provided for the 30% design review of the late Space Station Freedom Payload Control Area (PCA). The PCA was to be the payload operations control room, analogous to the Spacelab Payload Operations Control Center (POCC). This effort began with a systematic collection and refinement of the relevant requirements driving the spatial layout of the consoles and PCA. This information was used as input for specialized human factors analytical tools and techniques in the design and design analysis activities. Design concepts and configuration options were developed and reviewed using sketches, 2-D Computer-Aided Design (CAD) drawings, and immersive Virtual Reality (VR) mockups.

  6. Temporal variations of heavy metals in coral Porites lutea from Guangdong Province, China: Influences from industrial pollution,climate and economic factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Zicheng; LIU Junhua; ZHOU Chenglin; NIE Baofu; CHEN Tegu

    2006-01-01

    The eight heavy metals Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb have been determined in samples of coral Porites lutea collected from Dafangji Island waters (21°21' N, 111°11' E), Dianbai County, Guangdong Province, China, by the ICP-MS method. The samples represent the growth of coral in the period of 1982-2001. The results showed that the waters were polluted by the heavy metals Cu, Ni, Zn,and Pb in certain years, but not by other metals. The contamination may have come from industrial sources, including electroplating, metallurgy, mining, and aquatic industries in the coastal areas.The correlation coefficients among the metals and climatic and economic factors indicate that the metals Ni, Zn, and Cd behave similarly. Copper and Mn are positively correlated, and cobalt is negatively correlated with Cr, Ni, Zn, and Cd. Lead is not correlated with any other metals but is correlated with sea surface water temperature, air temperature, GDP and industrial-agricultural production in Dianbai County.Lead in corals is related to the enhanced pollution level of ocean waters as a result of increased industrial activities.

  7. 气候变化影响霍乱流行的研究进展%Progress in research of impact of climate factor on cholera epidemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鲁茜; 阚飙

    2011-01-01

    Climate factor has great impact on the incidence and distribution of communicable diseases. The distributional pattern of cholera was characterized by "endemicity" and "seasonality". Climate and environmental factors play a driving role in the epidemic and pandemic of cholera. Time series analysis on the cholera incidence and the mathematical model based cholera dynamics analysis indicated that the climate factor and population immunity levels against cholera are key determinants for cholera epidemic; extreme climate events such as El Nino are closely associated with the incidence of cholera outbreak. This paper summarizes the development on our understanding how climate changes influence the epidemic of cholera from the aspects of epidemiology, ecology, and model based dynamics,emphasizing its significance to cholera control.%气候因素对传染病的流行产生重要影响.霍乱的流行具有季节性和一定的自然疫源性,气候和环境因素在霍乱的流行和大流行中起驱动作用.霍乱流行的时间序列分析和数学模型显示,气候因素和人群的免疫水平是决定霍乱流行的重要因素,厄尔尼诺等极端气候变化与霍乱暴发流行密切相关.本文从生态学、流行病学、统计学、数学模型等方面概述了气候和环境因素在霍乱流行中起的作用,并阐述了其对霍乱控制的意义.

  8. Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Rao, Yuhan; Sun, Qinglan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Jin, Jiao; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jin; Lei, Fumin; Liu, Qiyong; Duan, Ziyuan; Ma, Juncai; Gao, George F; Liu, Di; Liu, Wenjun

    2015-12-11

    Human influenza infections display a strongly seasonal pattern. However, whether H7N9 and H5N1 infections correlate with climate factors has not been examined. Here, we analyzed 350 cases of H7N9 infection and 47 cases of H5N1 infection. The spatial characteristics of these cases revealed that H5N1 infections mainly occurred in the South, Middle, and Northwest of China, while the occurrence of H7N9 was concentrated in coastal areas of East and South of China. Aside from spatial-temporal characteristics, the most adaptive meteorological conditions for the occurrence of human infections by these two viral subtypes were different. We found that H7N9 infections correlate with climate factors, especially temperature (TEM) and relative humidity (RHU), while H5N1 infections correlate with TEM and atmospheric pressure (PRS). Hence, we propose a risky window (TEM 4-14 °C and RHU 65-95%) for H7N9 infection and (TEM 2-22 °C and PRS 980-1025 kPa) for H5N1 infection. Our results represent the first step in determining the effects of climate factors on two different virus infections in China and provide warning guidelines for the future when provinces fall into the risky windows. These findings revealed integrated predictive meteorological factors rooted in statistic data that enable the establishment of preventive actions and precautionary measures against future outbreaks.

  9. Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Rao, Yuhan; Sun, Qinglan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Jin, Jiao; Bi, Yuhai; Chen, Jin; Lei, Fumin; Liu, Qiyong; Duan, Ziyuan; Ma, Juncai; Gao, George F.; Liu, Di; Liu, Wenjun

    2015-01-01

    Human influenza infections display a strongly seasonal pattern. However, whether H7N9 and H5N1 infections correlate with climate factors has not been examined. Here, we analyzed 350 cases of H7N9 infection and 47 cases of H5N1 infection. The spatial characteristics of these cases revealed that H5N1 infections mainly occurred in the South, Middle, and Northwest of China, while the occurrence of H7N9 was concentrated in coastal areas of East and South of China. Aside from spatial-temporal characteristics, the most adaptive meteorological conditions for the occurrence of human infections by these two viral subtypes were different. We found that H7N9 infections correlate with climate factors, especially temperature (TEM) and relative humidity (RHU), while H5N1 infections correlate with TEM and atmospheric pressure (PRS). Hence, we propose a risky window (TEM 4–14 °C and RHU 65–95%) for H7N9 infection and (TEM 2–22 °C and PRS 980-1025 kPa) for H5N1 infection. Our results represent the first step in determining the effects of climate factors on two different virus infections in China and provide warning guidelines for the future when provinces fall into the risky windows. These findings revealed integrated predictive meteorological factors rooted in statistic data that enable the establishment of preventive actions and precautionary measures against future outbreaks. PMID:26656876

  10. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  11. Spironolactone inhibits production of proinflammatory cytokines, including tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-gamma, and has potential in the treatment of arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtzen, K; Hansen, P R; Rieneck, K

    2003-01-01

    for up to 22 months with 1-3 mg/kg/day. Spironolactone, at in vivo attainable doses, markedly suppressed transcription of several proinflammatory cytokines and, accordingly, inhibited release of tumour necrosis factor, lymphotoxin, interferon-gamma, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor....... In conclusion, spironolactone inhibits production of several proinflammatory cytokines considered to be of pathogenic importance in many immunoinflammatory diseases and shows positive effect in patients with chronic arthritis. Its effect as an anti-inflammatory drug should be explored, because prolonged...... and interleukin 6 (70-90% inhibition). Release of these cytokines was also suppressed when testing whole blood from RA patients receiving 50 mg spironolactone twice daily, indicating that pharmaceutical use of the drug may suppress the release of inflammatory cytokines. Spironolactone therapy was generally well...

  12. Spironolactone inhibits production of proinflammatory cytokines, including tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-gamma, and has potential in the treatment of arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtzen, K; Hansen, P R; Rieneck, K

    2003-01-01

    ,000 genes) and enzyme immunoassay for quantitating secreted pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines. Furthermore, to evaluate the safety and efficacy of spironolactone as an anti-inflammatory drug 21 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) or other arthritides were treated...... for up to 22 months with 1-3 mg/kg/day. Spironolactone, at in vivo attainable doses, markedly suppressed transcription of several proinflammatory cytokines and, accordingly, inhibited release of tumour necrosis factor, lymphotoxin, interferon-gamma, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor...... and interleukin 6 (70-90% inhibition). Release of these cytokines was also suppressed when testing whole blood from RA patients receiving 50 mg spironolactone twice daily, indicating that pharmaceutical use of the drug may suppress the release of inflammatory cytokines. Spironolactone therapy was generally well...

  13. Lineages of human T-cell clones, including T helper 17/T helper 1 cells, isolated at different stages of anti–factor VIII immune responses

    OpenAIRE

    Ettinger, Ruth A.; James, Eddie A.; Kwok, William W.; Arthur R Thompson; Pratt, Kathleen P.

    2009-01-01

    The development of neutralizing antibodies (inhibitors) after factor VIII (FVIII) infusions is a serious complication that affects approximately one-quarter of hemophilia A patients who have access to replacement therapy. To investigate the differentiation of naive T cells into FVIII-specific helper T cells that promote B-cell activation and antibody secretion, HLA-DRA-DRB1*0101-restricted T-cell clones that respond to a specific epitope in FVIII were isolated from a mild hemophilia A subject...

  14. Disease-related and psychosocial factors associated with depressive symptoms in patients with systemic sclerosis, including fear of progression and appearance self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkenbos, Linda; van Lankveld, Wim G J M; Vonk, Madelon C; Becker, Eni S; van den Hoogen, Frank H J; van den Ende, Cornelia H M

    2012-03-01

    The prevalence of depressive symptoms is high in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc, scleroderma). This study was conducted to determine which disease-related and psychosocial factors are associated with depressive symptoms, independent of sociodemographic factors. In total, 215 patients with SSc completed questionnaires on sociodemographics, physical functioning (HAQ-DI), pain (VAS), fatigue (CIS), psychosocial characteristics (CISS, ICQ, PRQ, ASE, FoP-Q-SF) and depressive symptoms (CES-D). Disease characteristics (disease duration, disease subtype, modified Rodnan Skin Score) were collected. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were conducted to assess associations with depressive symptoms. The mean CES-D score was 12.9 (SD=9.7) and the prevalence of patients scoring>= 16 and>=19 were 32.1% and 25.1%, respectively. The variance explained by sociodemographics and disease characteristics was negligible (R(2)≤.09). Fatigue and pain were independently associated with depressive symptoms (R(2) change=.35). After adding psychological factors (R(2) change=.21), satisfaction with social support, emotion-focused coping and helplessness were also significantly associated with depressive symptoms. Higher fear of progression was associated with more depressive symptoms (P≤.01), and appearance self-esteem showed a marginally significant association (P=.08). Depressive symptoms were common in the present sample of patients with SSc and were independently associated with pain, fatigue, social support, emotion-focused coping, helplessness and fear of progression. Results suggest that, in addition to assessment of disease characteristics, attention should be given also to psychosocial factors found to be associated with depressive symptoms. For the development and trialling of psychological interventions, fear of progression could be an important target. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  16. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-11-13

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

  17. Ecology of Anopheline (Diptera, Culicidae, malaria vectors around the Serra da Mesa Reservoir, State of Goiás, Brazil: 1 - Frequency and climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Érico Guimarães

    Full Text Available The ecology of anopheline species (Diptera, Culicidae was studied in the vicinity of the Serra da Mesa Reservoir, State of Goiás, Brazil. Climatic factors and frequency of anopheline populations were analyzed. Bimonthly human-bait and Shannon trap captures were conducted for 36 consecutive months (January 1997 through December 1999. A total of 5,205 adult anophelines belonging to five species were collected. Anopheles darlingi was the most frequently collected anopheline (61.4%, followed by An. albitarsis s.l. (35.4%, An. triannulatus. (2.5%, An. oswaldoi (0.4%, and An. evansae (0.2%. The water level and vegetation along the banks of the reservoir were crucial to the frequency of the various anopheline species. Climatic factors had a secondary influence. The reservoir's water-level stability, increased frequency of An. darlingi, and the arrival of gold prospectors were responsible for the increase in malaria cases.

  18. Who, what, where, when, and why: demographic and ecological factors contributing to hostile school climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosciw, Joseph G; Greytak, Emily A; Diaz, Elizabeth M

    2009-08-01

    This study examines how locational (region and locale), community-level (school district poverty and adult educational attainment), and school district-level (district size and ratios of students to key school personnel) variables are related to indicators of hostile school climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth. Indicators of hostile climate included frequency of homophobic remarks and victimization regarding sexual orientation and gender expression. We used data from a national survey of LGBT secondary school students (N = 5,420; 57.6% female; 65.5% White; mean age = 15.9). Results from regression analyses demonstrated that LGBT youth in rural communities and communities with lower adult educational attainment may face particularly hostile school climates. School district characteristics contributed little to the variation in LGBT youth's experiences. Findings highlight the importance of considering the multiple contexts that LGBT youth inhabit, particularly as they pertain to educational experiences.

  19. CONTRIBUTION OF SATELLITE-BORN INFORMATION TO CLIMATE SCIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Observed climate processes play important role in understanding the ongoing changes in the climate system. Our paper intends to present this cross-section of climate science illustrated by selected satellite images and diagrams in four parts. (i. Technical possibilities of the observations are briefly surveyed first. Many satellite platforms and devices started working in the 1980 and 1990s, definitely for climate purposes. (ii. Climate forcing factors and their radiation effects are comprehended, including direct observation of solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol concentration allowing us to compare natural factors to the anthropogenic ones. (iii. Detection of changes in the Earth climate system follows next, including the atmosphere, the oceans and the cryosphere, as well. (iv. Finally, satellite-born results in validation of climate models are presented in three aspects: reconstruction of present climate, validation of simulated changes and investigation of feedback mechanisms driving climate sensitivity to the external forcing factors. The above possibilities of using satellite information in climate science are mostly illustrated by key figures of the IPCC AR5 Report (2013.

  20. Clustering, climate and dengue transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junxiong, Pang; Yee-Sin, Leo

    2015-06-01

    Dengue is currently the most rapidly spreading vector-borne disease, with an increasing burden over recent decades. Currently, neither a licensed vaccine nor an effective anti-viral therapy is available, and treatment largely remains supportive. Current vector control strategies to prevent and reduce dengue transmission are neither efficient nor sustainable as long-term interventions. Increased globalization and climate change have been reported to influence dengue transmission. In this article, we reviewed the non-climatic and climatic risk factors which facilitate dengue transmission. Sustainable and effective interventions to reduce the increasing threat from dengue would require the integration of these risk factors into current and future prevention strategies, including dengue vaccination, as well as the continuous support and commitment from the political and environmental stakeholders.

  1. A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate and climate-independent factors on the lifecycle of the tick Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Antoinette; Ginsberg, Howard; Hickling, Graham J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

    2016-01-01

    The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

  2. A Dynamic Population Model to Investigate Effects of Climate and Climate-Independent Factors on the Lifecycle of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Antoinette; Ginsberg, Howard S; Hickling, Graham J; Ogden, Nicholas H

    2016-01-01

    The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

  3. Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

  4. Factors associated with early adoption of the HPV vaccine in US male adolescents include Hispanic ethnicity and receipt of other vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deanna Kepka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Adolescent males' HPV vaccine initiation and completion in the United States is far below the Healthy People 2020 goal of 80% 3-dose completion among boys. In 2012, less than 7% of males ages 13–17 years had completed the 3-dose series. The Diffusion of Innovations framework guided this investigation of factors related to early adoption of HPV vaccination among male adolescents. Provider-validated data from the 2012 National Immunization Survey-Teen (NIS-Teen for male adolescents ages 13–17 years were analyzed via a multivariable Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios for factors associated with HPV vaccine initiation and completion. Adolescent males who are Hispanic and those who are up to date on other recommended adolescent vaccinations were most likely to complete the HPV vaccine. Public health interventions are needed to improve low HPV vaccination rates among adolescent males in the United States. Description of early adopters of the HPV vaccine provides historical context of HPV vaccination acceptance that is needed to inform the design of targeted vaccination interventions to prevent negative HPV-associated outcomes.

  5. Factors associated with early adoption of the HPV vaccine in US male adolescents include Hispanic ethnicity and receipt of other vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepka, Deanna; Ding, Qian; Hawkins, Amy J; Warner, Echo L; Boucher, Kenneth M

    2016-12-01

    Adolescent males' HPV vaccine initiation and completion in the United States is far below the Healthy People 2020 goal of 80% 3-dose completion among boys. In 2012, less than 7% of males ages 13-17 years had completed the 3-dose series. The Diffusion of Innovations framework guided this investigation of factors related to early adoption of HPV vaccination among male adolescents. Provider-validated data from the 2012 National Immunization Survey-Teen (NIS-Teen) for male adolescents ages 13-17 years were analyzed via a multivariable Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios for factors associated with HPV vaccine initiation and completion. Adolescent males who are Hispanic and those who are up to date on other recommended adolescent vaccinations were most likely to complete the HPV vaccine. Public health interventions are needed to improve low HPV vaccination rates among adolescent males in the United States. Description of early adopters of the HPV vaccine provides historical context of HPV vaccination acceptance that is needed to inform the design of targeted vaccination interventions to prevent negative HPV-associated outcomes.

  6. Analysis of the relationships between esophageal cancer cases and climatic factors using a Geographic Information System (GIS): a case study of Ardabil province in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahari, Saeid Sadeghieh; Agdam, Fridoon Babaei; Amani, Firouz; Yazdanbod, Abbas; Akhghari, Leyla

    2013-01-01

    Esophageal cancer is a mjaor health problems in many parts of the world. A geographical information system (GIS) allows investigation of the geographical distribution of diseases. The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationship between esophageal cancer and effective climatic factors using GIS. The dispersion distribution and the relationship between environmental factors effective on cancer were measured using Arc GIS. The highest degree of spread was in Germi town and the least was in Ardabil city. There was a significant relationship between effective environmental factors and esophageal cancer in Ardabil province. The results indicated that environmental factors probably are influential in determining the incidence of esophageal cancer. Also, these results can be considered as a window to future comprehensive research on esophageal cancer and related risk factors.

  7. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  8. Climatic regionalization mapping of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area,Australia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Demin Zhou; Shahbaz Khan; Akhtar Abbas; Tariq Rana; Haiying Zhang; Yun Chen

    2009-01-01

    In this study,spatial analysis techniques were used to generate climatic zoning maps of the East Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA),Australia.Long term climate data were used to analyze and assess regional climatic variation by cluster analysis in a GIS environment.Based on thermal and moisture factors,four variables were chosen to develop climate zones.These variables include annual average rainfalls,annual average ETc,annual average Growing Day Degree (GDD) and daily average temperature generated from daily climate data of 36 years (1971-2006) on 12 local weather stations as the fundamental elements of regional climate characteristics.GIS-based spatial analysis models are used to map climate sub-regions from sets of climatic parameters derived from regional climate data sources.Two climate zoning schemes are presented by integration of spatial interpolation,spatial cluster analysis and climate indices methods.One scheme comes with the two climate zones of the West and the East based on spatial cluster analysis according to selected climatic variables,and the other comes with the three comprehensive hydro-thermal zones and the six hydro-thermal balance zones.

  9. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  10. Prevalência e fatores associados a fogachos em mulheres climatéricas e pós-climatéricas Prevalence and factors associated with hot flashes in climacteric and post-climacteric women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iândora Krolow Timm Sclowitz

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Com o objetivo de determinar a prevalência de fogachos e fatores associados, em mulheres entre 40 e 69 anos de idade, provenientes de uma amostra representativa da população da cidade de Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, realizou-se um estudo transversal. O processo de amostragem foi em múltiplos estágios, e a coleta de dados, realizada através de entrevista e questionário auto-aplicado. Foram incluídas 879 mulheres. A prevalência ponto e a prevalência de episódio de fogachos foram, respectivamente, de 30,1% e 53,2%. Os fatores estatisticamente associados a fogachos atuais foram a categoria menopausal de pré-menopausa (RP = 2,33 e pós-menopausa (RP = 2,66; idade de 45 a 49 anos (RP = 1,34 e de 50 a 54 anos (RP = 1,42; status sócio-econômico mais baixo (RP = 2,16; não uso de anticoncepção hormonal após os 40 anos (RP = 1,40; obesidade (RP = 1,39; sobrepeso (RP = 1,32 e viver sem companheiro (RP = 0,80. Dada a alta prevalência do sintoma, é necessário que os serviços de saúde se organizem para lidar com a mulher climatérica.A cross-sectional study was conducted on the prevalence of hot flashes and associated factors among women from 40 to 69 years old, from a population-based sample in the city of Pelotas, southern Brazil. A multi-stage sampling process was used, and data were collected through an interview and a self-applied questionnaire. A total of 879 women were included. Point prevalence and lifetime prevalence were 30.1% and 53.2%, respectively. Factors associated with hot flashes were: pre-menopausal status (RP = 2.33 and post-menopausal status (RP = 2.66; age 45-49 years (RP = 1.34 and 50-54 years (RP = 1.42; lower social class (RP = 2.16; no use of a hormonal contraception method after 40 years of age (RP = 1.40; obesity (RP = 1.39 and overweight (RP = 1.32; and not having a partner (RP = 0.80. High prevalence of this symptom indicates that health facilities should be prepared to deal with problems encountered

  11. Climate selection and development of climate indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowen, W.M.; Moreno, S.; Olsen, A.R.

    1982-09-01

    A climate analysis procedure for selecting climate locations which would represent the variation in climate conditions throughout the United States is documented. Separate energy analysis projects for three building categories were to use the results of the climate location project. The categories are: commercial buildings (including multifamily residences), single family residences, and mobile homes. The overall objectives, approach, and method used for all three categories are presented, then the specific application of the general method to each building category is discussed. Climate selection results, conclusions, recommendations, and limits for each building category are presented within the description of the application of the method for that category. (LEW)

  12. Development of multidrug resistance due to multiple factors including P-glycoprotein overexpression under K-selection after MYC and HRAS oncogene activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yukari; Sato, Hiroyuki; Motokura, Toru

    2006-05-15

    Multistep tumorigenesis is a form of microevolution consisting of mutation and selection. To clarify the role of selection modalities in tumor development, we examined two alternative evolutionary conditions, r-selection in sparse culture, which allows cells to proliferate rapidly, and K-selection in confluent culture, in which overcrowding constrains cell proliferation. Using MYC- and EJ-RAS-transformed rat embryo fibroblasts, we found that K-selected cells acquired and stably maintained multidrug resistance (MDR) to DOX, VCR, MTX and Ara-C. Then, we examined the involvement of a number of factors potentially causal of the development of MDR, that is, ploidy, Tp53 mutation, doubling time and the expression levels of genes related to drug resistance. Although ploidy status and Tp53 mutations did not correlate with MDR, we found that Abcb1/Mdr1, encoding P-glycoprotein (Pgp), was significantly upregulated after K-selection. Cyclosporin A, a competitive inhibitor of Pgp, increased the intracellular accumulation of DOX and reduced the resistance to it. Indeed, the population of Pgp-transfected cells significantly expanded under K-, but not under r-selection. In addition to Pgp upregulation, altered expression of other genes such as Cda/cytidine deaminase and Slc29a1/equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 and prolonged doubling times were associated with MDR. This system reproduces events associated with MDR in vivo and would be useful for analysis of MDR development.

  13. Real-world Experience with Sofosbuvir-based Regimens for Chronic Hepatitis C, Including Patients with Factors Previously Associated with Inferior Treatment Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Christina J; Roytman, Marina M; Hong, Leena K; Huddleston, Leslie; Trujillo, Ruby; Cheung, Alvin; Poerzgen, Peter; Tsai, Naoky C S

    2015-09-01

    The introduction of sofosbuvir, a direct acting antiviral, has revolutionized the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). Phase 3 clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy, simplicity, and tolerability of sofosbuvir-based regimens and report high rates of sustained virological response (SVR) rates. The purpose of this study was to assess whether clinical trial findings translate into a real-world setting, particularly with treatment of chronic HCV in our diverse, multiethnic population of Hawai'i. Retrospective analysis was performed for 113 patients with genotype 1-6 HCV infection being treated at the Queen's Liver Center between January 2014 and March 2015. SVR rates for our cohort were slightly lower than the rates published by the clinical trials. Data analysis also suggested that most baseline characteristics previously associated with inferior response might not be as significant for sofosbuvir-based regimens; in our cohort, male gender was the only factor significantly related to increased risk of virologic relapse. Pacific Islanders also had higher rate of relapse compared to other ethnic groups, but the small number of patients treated in this subgroup make it difficult to validate this finding. While newer all-oral treatment regimens have been introduced since this study, we highlight the importance of comparing real-world versus clinical trial results for new treatments, and provide data analyses for treatment of chronic HCV in Hawai'i.

  14. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  15. Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  16. Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qingxia; Wu, Zhiyong; Singh, Vijay P.; Sadeghi, S. H. R.; He, Hai; Lu, Guihua

    2017-06-01

    The Xijiang River is known as the Golden Watercourse because of its role in the development of the Pearl River Delta Regional Economic System in China, which was made possible by its abundant water resources. At present, the hydrological regime of the Xijiang River has now become complicated, the water shortages and successive droughts pose a threat to regional economic development. However, the complexity of hydroclimatological processes with emphasizes on drought has not been comprehended. In order to effectively predict and develop the adaptation strategies to cope with the water scarcity damage caused by hydrological droughts, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the relationship between hydrological droughts and pre/post-dependent hydroclimatological factors. To accomplish this, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) was utilized to reveal the periodic variation in hydrological droughts that is characterized by the Standardized Drought Index (SDI). In addition, the cross-wavelet transform method was applied to investigate the correlation between large-scale climate indices and drought. The results showed that hydrological drought had the most significant response to spring ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), and the response lags in sub-basins were mostly 8-9 months except that in Yujiang River were mainly 5 or 8 months. Signal reservoir operation in the Yujiang River reduced drought severity by 52-95.8% from January to April over the 2003-2014 time period. Similarly, the cascade reservoir alleviated winter and spring droughts in the Hongshuihe River Basin. However, autumn drought was aggravated with severity increased by 41.9% in September and by 160.9% in October, so that the land surface models without considering human intervention must be used with caution in the hydrological simulation. The response lags of the VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) to hydrological drought were different in the sub-basins. The response lag for the

  17. Evaluating the prevalence of canceling surgical operations,including its influencing factors at Imam Khomeini hospital in Sari during 2006-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zamani kiasari

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstractBackground and Purpose: Hospital admission for surgery is an important event for patients. Canceling surgical procedures produce several unpleasant results for patients such as waste of time, including payment. The aim of this study is to identify the prevalence and causes of canceling surgical procedures, in order to achieve problem solving methods.Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study. Statistical data regarding all surgical procedures (without sampling performed during 2006 to 2007, were recorded in a checklist. Study variables were identified based on surgical procedures that were canceled during this study. Data was analyzed using SPSS software and statistical analysis tests.Results: Of 4,711 scheduled patients, 510 (10/9% surgical operations were canceled. The highest number of patient candidates for surgical operation was related to gynecology, orthopedic, urology, while the least were related to reconstructive and vascular surgery groups respectively. The most canceled surgical procedures were related to neurosurgical operation 32/4% (68 from 207 cases while the least canceled cases belonged to gynecology 4/4% (48 from 1094 cases.Conclusion: The results of our study showed that 54/2% of canceled cases were preventable. The results of this study and similar studies demonstrate that traditional pre-operative preparation for surgical scheduling, day before surgery is in need of serious consideration. We recommend a fundamental change by discarding traditional methods and creating a new committee including specialized bed or resource groups, monthly management meetings to discuss causes of canceling surgical procedures, in order to reduce its occurrence. Thus, decreasing the rate of canceling surgical wasted, while reducing anxiety in patients and their family. J Mazand Univ Med Sci 2008; 18(65:52-62 (Persian

  18. Treatment outcome and prognostic factor analysis in transplant-eligible Chinese myeloma patients receiving bortezomib-based induction regimens including the staged approach, PAD or VTD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chim Chor

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have reported promising outcomes using a staged approach, in which bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone was used only in 14 patients with suboptimal response to VAD (vincristine/adriamycin/dexamethasone before autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT. Here we compared the outcomes of the staged approach with frontline PAD (bortezomib/doxorubicin/dexamethasone or VTD (bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone induction, and analysed prognostic factors for outcome. Patients and methods Ninety-one transplant-eligible Chinese patients received three induction regimens prior to ASCT [staged approach (N = 25, PAD (N = 31, VTD (N = 35]. and received thalidomide maintenance for 2 years post-ASCT. Results 43 (47.3% patients had International Staging System (ISS III disease. By an intention-to-treat analysis, the overall CR/nCR rate were 37.4% post-induction, and 62.6% post-ASCT. Five-year overall (OS and event-free (EFS survivals were 66% and 45.1%. There was no difference of the post-induction CR/nCR rate, EFS or OS between patients induced by these three regimens. Moreover, ISS III disease did not affect CR/nCR rates. Multivariate analysis showed that ISS and post-ASCT CR/nCR impacted OS while ISS and post-induction CR/nCR impacted EFS. Conclusions These three induction regimens produced comparable and favorable outcomes in myeloma. The unfavorable outcome of ISS stage III persisted despite upfront/early use of bortezomib. CR/nCR predicted favorable survivals.

  19. Borrelidin Isolated from Streptomyces sp. Inhibited Adipocyte Differentiation in 3T3-L1 Cells via Several Factors Including GATA-Binding Protein 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuo, Hirotaka; Kondo, Yoshiyuki; Kawasaki, Takashi; Tokuyama, Shinji; Imamura, Nobutaka

    2015-01-01

    An inhibitor of 3T3-L1 adipocyte differentiation was isolated from Streptomyces sp. TK08330 and identified by spectroscopy as the 18-membered macrolide borrelidin. Treatment with 1.0 μM borrelidin suppressed intracellular lipid accumulation by 80% and inhibited the expression of adipocyte-specific genes. Borrelidin suppressed the mRNA expression of two master regulators of adipocyte differentiation, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) and CCAAT/enhancer binding protein (C/EBPα). Studies on well-known upstream regulators of PPARγ revealed that borrelidin down-regulated C/EBPδ mRNA expression but did not affect expression of C/EBPβ. Borrelidin increased mRNA expression of negative regulators of differentiation such as GATA-binding protein (GATA) 3, Krüppel-like factor (KLF) 3 and KLF7, as well as positive regulators, KLF4, KLF6 and KLF15, at early stages of differentiation. To elucidate a primary mediator of borrelidin differentiation inhibitory activity, small interfering RNA (siRNA) transfection experiments were performed. The mRNA expression of PPARγ, which was down-regulated by borrelidin, was not changed by KLF3 and KLF7 siRNA treatment. In contrast, expression of PPARγ in GATA-3 siRNA-treated cells was not significantly different from that of control siRNA-treated cells. Borrelidin significantly inhibited lipid accumulation in control siRNA-treated cells, and treatment with GATA-3 siRNA slightly reduced the inhibitory effect of borrelidin. These results indicate that borrelidin inhibited adipocyte differentiation partially via GATA-3.

  20. Human CD34+ CD133+ hematopoietic stem cells cultured with growth factors including Angptl5 efficiently engraft adult NOD-SCID Il2rγ-/- (NSG mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Drake

    Full Text Available Increasing demand for human hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs in clinical and research applications necessitates expansion of HSCs in vitro. Before these cells can be used they must be carefully evaluated to assess their stem cell activity. Here, we expanded cord blood CD34(+ CD133(+ cells in a defined medium containing angiopoietin like 5 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2 and evaluated the cells for stem cell activity in NOD-SCID Il2rg(-/- (NSG mice by multi-lineage engraftment, long term reconstitution, limiting dilution and serial reconstitution. The phenotype of expanded cells was characterized by flow cytometry during the course of expansion and following engraftment in mice. We show that the SCID repopulating activity resides in the CD34(+ CD133(+ fraction of expanded cells and that CD34(+ CD133(+ cell number correlates with SCID repopulating activity before and after culture. The expanded cells mediate long-term hematopoiesis and serial reconstitution in NSG mice. Furthermore, they efficiently reconstitute not only neonate but also adult NSG recipients, generating human blood cell populations similar to those reported in mice reconstituted with uncultured human HSCs. These findings suggest an expansion of long term HSCs in our culture and show that expression of CD34 and CD133 serves as a marker for HSC activity in human cord blood cell cultures. The ability to expand human HSCs in vitro should facilitate clinical use of HSCs and large-scale construction of humanized mice from the same donor for research applications.

  1. Impacts of land surface properties and atmospheric CO2 on the Last Glacial Maximum climate: a factor separation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Munhoven

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Many sensitivity studies have been carried out, using climate models of different degrees of complexity to test the climate response to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. Here, instead of adding the forcings successively as in most previous studies, we applied the separation method of U. Stein et P. Alpert 1993, in order to determine rigorously the different contributions of the boundary condition modifications, and isolate the pure contributions from the interactions among the forcings. We carried out a series of sensitivity experiments with the model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator, investigating the contributions of the ice sheet expansion and elevation, the lowering of the atmospheric CO2 and of the vegetation cover change on the LGM climate. The separation of the ice cover and orographic contributions shows that the ice albedo effect is the main contributor to the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas orography has only a local cooling impact over the ice sheets. The expansion of ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere causes a disruption of the tropical precipitation, and a southward shift of the ITCZ. The orographic forcing mainly contributes to the disruption of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a redistribution of the precipitation, but weakly impacts the tropics. The isolated vegetation contribution also induces strong cooling over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere that further affects the tropical precipitation and reinforce the southward shift of the ITCZ, when combined with the ice forcing. The combinations of the forcings generate many non-linear interactions that reinforce or weaken the pure contributions, depending on the climatic mechanism involved, but they are generally weaker than the pure contributions. Finally, the comparison between the LGM simulated climate and climatic reconstructions over Eurasia suggests that our results reproduce well the south-west to

  2. Analyzing the Effects of Climate Factors on Soybean Protein, Oil Contents, and Composition by Extensive and High-Density Sampling in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenwen; Yang, Ruping; Wu, Tingting; Wu, Cunxiang; Sun, Shi; Zhang, Shouwei; Jiang, Bingjun; Tian, Shiyan; Liu, Xiaobing; Han, Tianfu

    2016-05-25

    From 2010 to 2013, 763 soybean samples were collected from an extensive area of China. The correlations between seed compositions and climate data were analyzed. The contents of crude protein and water-soluble protein, total amount of protein plus oil, and most of the amino acids were positively correlated with an accumulated temperature ≥15 °C (AT15) and the mean daily temperature (MDT) but were negatively correlated with hours of sunshine (HS) and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The correlations of crude oil and most fatty acids with climate factors were opposite to those of crude protein. Crude oil content had a quadratic regression relationship with MDT, and a positive correlation between oil content and MDT was found when the daily temperature was soybean protein and oil contents. The study illustrated the effects of climate factors on soybean protein and oil contents and proposed agronomic practices for improving soybean quality in different regions of China. The results provide a foundation for the regionalization of high-quality soybean production in China and similar regions in the world.

  3. 林业经济发展与气候因素的因果关系%The Causal Relationship between Forestry Economic Development and Climate Factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈慧斌

    2016-01-01

    Forest resources is the basis for the development of forestry economic energy,and it has a causal relationship with climate.Climate factors such as temperature,humidity,precipitation and illumination have decisively influence on the growth of forest and forestry production.Therefore,climate factors should be taken into consideration in the development of forest economy, and woody oil energy industry should be taken seriously.%森林资源是林业经济发展的基础能源,又与气候存在着因果关系.气候因素中的气温、湿度、降水、光照等对森林生长产生起决定性影响,林业生产总值深受气候影响,同时林业经济的发展可能对气候产生正反两方面作用.因此,人们在发展林业经济过程中要考虑到气候变化因素,积极发展木本油料能源产业.

  4. Modifiable risk factors including sunlight exposure and fish consumption are associated with risk of hypertension in a large representative population from Macau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Liang; Ho, Jacky; Feng, Jianzhang; Mpofu, Elias; Dibley, Michael J; Feng, Xiuhua; Van, Florance; Leong, Sokman; Lau, Winne; Lueng, Petra; Kowk, Carrie; Li, Yan; Mason, Rebecca S; Brock, Kaye E

    2014-10-01

    Chinese populations are known to be at risk for vitamin D deficiency, with some evidence that this is due to lack of exposure to sunlight. Vitamin D deficiency and/or low sun exposure have been associated with higher incidence of hypertension in Caucasians. Thus, we investigated these associations in a Chinese population with a high rate of hypertension. From a random household survey of 1410 residents aged ≥18 years, height, weight and blood pressure were measured and demographic, exercise and dietary data were collected, as well as estimated hours of sunlight exposure on weekdays and weekends (in winter and summer). Modifiable predictors of hypertension in these data were lack of sunlight exposure and low intake of fish as well as smoking, obesity and lack of exercise. When investigated in a linear model, sunlight exposure was negatively associated with hypertension (β=-0.072, pexposure per day compared to none was associated with less hypertension (OR=0.6, 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). Similarly, consuming either oily fish or seafood more than four times per week compared to less was also associated with less hypertension (oily fish (OR=0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.5); seafood consumption (OR=0.8, 95% CI: 0.7-0.9)). Having daily moderate physical activity compared to none was also associated with a lower risk of hypertension (OR=0.8, 95% CI: 0.7-0.9). In contrast, being obese compared to normal weight and having more than five pack-years of smoking compared to none were associated with a higher risk of hypertension (OR=4.6, 95% CI: 3.7-5.7; OR=1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8, respectively). The major new findings of this study are that more sun exposure and high weekly fish consumption (especially oily fish) may be potentially modifiable independent factors for protecting against risk of hypertension in this population. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled '16th Vitamin D Workshop'. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... correlation between increasing organic budget shares and decreasing meat budget shares is found. People include food-related behaviour such as the purchase of organic food and reduced meat consumption as ways to mitigate climate change. However, other behavioural modifications such as reduction of car usage...... data would supplement the analyses. Practical implications – Demand-side policies aiming at climate-friendly consumption could be a central factor in combating climate change. Already, food-related mitigation strategies such as lowered meat consumption are established practices among a group of organic...

  6. [Climate- and vector-borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bygbjerg, I.C.; Schioler, K.L.; Konradsen, F.

    2009-01-01

    The predicted changes in climate have raised concerns that vector-borne diseases may emerge or expand in tempered regions. Malaria, leishmaniasis and tick-borne illnesses are discussed in terms of climate change and their endemic potential, especially in Denmark. While climate may play an important...... role in disease patterns, it is evident that transmission potential is governed by a complex of factors, including socio-economy, health-care capacity and ecology. In Denmark, malaria and leishmaniasis are unlikely to become public health problems, whereas the potential for tick-borne illnesses may...

  7. [Climate- and vector-borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bygbjerg, I.C.; Schioler, K.L.; Konradsen, F.

    2009-01-01

    The predicted changes in climate have raised concerns that vector-borne diseases may emerge or expand in tempered regions. Malaria, leishmaniasis and tick-borne illnesses are discussed in terms of climate change and their endemic potential, especially in Denmark. While climate may play an important...... role in disease patterns, it is evident that transmission potential is governed by a complex of factors, including socio-economy, health-care capacity and ecology. In Denmark, malaria and leishmaniasis are unlikely to become public health problems, whereas the potential for tick-borne illnesses may...

  8. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2016-08-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  9. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate

  10. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions

  11. Study on Urban Climatic Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors%城市气候特征及影响因素研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李明桃

    2015-01-01

    介绍了城市气候的概念和形成原因等,并对城市热岛、干岛、湿岛、雾岛等多岛效应进行了阐述,最后对城市气候的主要表现及其影响因素进行了总结,以期增强市民的环保意识。%The concept and form rea-son of urban climate were introduced, and the urban effects of heat island, dry island, wet island, and fog island were expounded. Finally, the main perfor-mance and influencing factors of urban climate were summarized, so as to in-crease public awareness of environmental protection.

  12. Evaluation of Socio-Economic Factors that Determine Adoption of Climate Compatible Freshwater Supply Measures at Farm Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veraart, Jeroen A.; Duinen, van Rianne; Vreke, Jan

    2017-01-01

    The availability of freshwater resources in soil and groundwater bodies in the southwestern part of The Netherlands is expected to decrease during the agricultural growing season because of an expected increase of freshwater demands and a changing climate. This expected shortage of fresh water mi

  13. Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Paul G. Rodewald

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate trees' potential responses to climate change are essential for developing appropriate forest management strategies. However, there is a great need to better understand these models' limitations and evaluate their uncertainties. We have previously developed statistical models of suitable habitat, based on both...

  14. Climatic Factors Drive Population Divergence and Demography: Insights Based on the Phylogeography of a Riparian Plant Species Endemic to the Hengduan Mountains and Adjacent Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhi-Wei; Chen, Shao-Tian; Nie, Ze-Long; Zhang, Jian-Wen; Zhou, Zhuo; Deng, Tao; Sun, Hang

    2015-01-01

    Quaternary climatic factors have played a significant role in population divergence and demography. Here we investigated the phylogeography of Osteomeles schwerinae, a dominant riparian plant species of the hot/warm-dry river valleys of the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), Qinling Mountains (QLM) and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP). Three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions (trnD-trnT, psbD-trnT, petL-psbE), one single copy nuclear gene (glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase; G3pdh), and climatic data during the Last Interglacial (LIG; c. 120-140 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 21 ka), and Current (c. 1950-2000) periods were used in this study. Six cpDNA haplotypes and 15 nuclear DNA (nDNA) haplotypes were identified in the 40 populations of O. schwerinae. Spatial Analysis of Molecular Variance, median-joining networks, and Bayesian phylogenetic trees based on the cpDNA and nDNA datasets, all suggested population divergence between the QLM and HDM-YGP regions. Our climatic analysis identified significant heterogeneity of the climatic factors in the QLM and HDM-YGP regions during the aforementioned three periods. The divergence times based on cpDNA and nDNA haplotypes were estimated to be 466.4-159.4 ka and 315.8-160.3 ka, respectively, which coincide with the time of the weakening of the Asian monsoons in these regions. In addition, unimodal pairwise mismatch distribution curves, expansion times, and Ecological Niche Modeling suggested a history of population expansion (rather than contraction) during the last glaciation. Interestingly, the expansion times were found being well consistent with the intensification of the Asian monsoons during this period. We inferred that the divergence between the two main lineages is probably caused by disruption of more continuous distribution because of weakening of monsoons/less precipitation, whilst subsequent intensification of the Asian monsoons during the last glaciation facilitated the expansion of O. schwerinae populations.

  15. The effects of climatic factors on the distribution and abundance of Japanese encephalitis vectors in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Suryanarayana Murty, M. Srinivasa Rao , N. Arunachalam

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Climatic attributes have been associated with relative mosquito abundanceand transmission of mosquito borne infections in many parts of the world, especially in warm andtropical climatic regions. The main objectives of this study were to assess the change in seasonalpattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE vectors, their density, to elucidate whether the lagged climatevariables (precipitation, temperature and humidity are associated with JE vector density, and todetermine if temperature and precipitation are similarly important for the rise in the number ofpotential mosquito vectors for JE virus in the temperate climate of Andhra Pradesh, India.Methods: Mosquito samples were collected from Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh using handcatch and light-trap methods during 2002 to 2006. The type and abundance of recovered specieswere compared to ecological correlates. In each geographic area, temperature and precipitationare the two possible proxy variables for mosquito density, in conjunction with other seasonalfactors for JE epidemics.Results: Out of the various mosquito species collected, Culex gelidus and Cx. tritaeniorhynchuswere noticed in high numbers. There was considerably high prevalence of Cx. gelidus (68.05% inurban area than in rural areas whereas, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (57.51% was found to be more inrural areas than in the urban area. It is noticed that the factors such as rainfall and temperaturewere found to be correlated with the per man hour (PMH density, whereas the humidity wasinversely correlated with the PMH.Interpretation & conclusion: The environmental and eco-climatic factors are assisting in enhancingthe breeding of these mosquitoes in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, India. Both Cx.tritaeniorhyncus and Cx. gelidus are quite adaptable to these environmental conditions and thisnecessitates immediate control measures in both rural and urban areas of Kurnool district.

  16. The large-scale distribution of ammonia oxidizers in paddy soils is driven by soil pH, geographic distance and climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hangwei eHu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Paddy soils distribute widely from temperate to tropical regions, and are characterized by intensive nitrogen fertilization practices in China. Mounting evidence has confirmed the functional importance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA and bacteria (AOB in soil nitrification, but little is known about their biogeographic distribution patterns in paddy ecosystems. Here, we used barcoded pyrosequencing to characterize the effects of climatic, geochemical and spatial factors on the distribution of ammonia oxidizers from 11 representative rice-growing regions (75-1945 km apart of China. Potential nitrification rates varied greatly by more than three orders of magnitude, and were significantly correlated with the abundances of AOA and AOB. The community composition of ammonia oxidizer was affected by multiple factors, but changes in relative abundances of the major lineages could be best predicted by soil pH. The alpha diversity of AOA and AOB displayed contrasting trends over the gradients of latitude and atmospheric temperature, indicating a possible niche separation between AOA and AOB along the latitude. The Bray-Curtis dissimilarities in ammonia-oxidizing community structure significantly increased with increasing geographical distance, indicating that more geographically distant paddy fields tend to harbor more dissimilar ammonia oxidizers. Variation partitioning analysis revealed that spatial, geochemical and climatic factors could jointly explain majority of the data variation, and were important drivers defining the ecological niches of AOA and AOB. Our findings suggest that both AOA and AOB are of functional importance in paddy soil nitrification, and ammonia oxidizers in paddy ecosystems exhibit large-scale biogeographic patterns shaped by soil pH, geographic distance, and climatic factors.

  17. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  18. The Assessment of Organisational Climate in Bedouin Arab Schools in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Saad, Ismael

    1995-01-01

    Summarizes results of a study designed to identify organizational climate factors in Israel's 29 Bedouin Arab elementary schools and to explore their relation to certain teacher and school-level variables, including sex, educational level, tenure, teachers' origin, school type, and school size. The most important organizational climate factor was…

  19. Impacts of land surface properties and atmospheric CO2 on the Last Glacial Maximum climate: a factor separation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Munhoven

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Many sensitivity studies have been carried out, using simplified GCMs to test the climate response to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. Here, instead of adding the forcings successively as in previous studies, we applied the separation method of Stein and Alpert (1993, in order to determine rigourously the different contributions of the boundary condition modifications, and isolate the pure contributions from the interactions among the forcings. We carried out a series of sensitivity experiments with the model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator, investigating the contributions of the ice sheet expansion and elevation, the lowering of the atmospheric CO2 and of the vegetation cover change on the LGM climate. The results clearly identify the ice cover forcing as the main contributor to the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, and also to the tropical precipitation disruption, leading to the shouthward shift of the ITCZ, while the orographic forcing mainly contributes to the disruption of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. The isolated vegetation contribution also induces strong cooling over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, that is further sufficient to affect the tropical precipitation and reinforce the southwards shift of the ITCZ, when combined with the ice forcing. The combinations of the forcings generate many non linear interactions, that reinforce or weaken the pure contributions, depending on the climatic mechanism involved, but they are generally weaker than the pure contributions. Finally, the comparison between the LGM simulated climate and climatic reconstructions over Eurasia suggests that our results reproduce well the south-west to north-east temperature gradients over Eurasia.

  20. The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Roe, Gerard H.; Feldl, Nicole; Armour, Kyle C.; Hwang, Yen-Ting; Frierson, Dargan M. W.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change is dominated by divergent predictions among climate models. Model differences are closely linked to their representation of climate feedbacks, that is, the additional radiative fluxes that are caused by changes in clouds, water vapour, surface albedo, and other factors, in response to an external climate forcing. Progress in constraining this uncertainty is therefore predicated on understanding how patterns of individual climate feedbacks a...

  1. The Copenhagen Climate Summit(Dec. 2009) in the Spanish Media: Journalistic Norms and Narrative Factors; La Cumbre del Clima de Copenhague (dic. 2009) en los Medios de Comunicacion Espanoles: las Reglas de Interaccion Periodistica y los Elementos Narrativos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopera, E.

    2011-05-13

    The main aim of this technical report is to analyze the media coverage of the Copenhagen Climate Summit published by selected Spanish media six national and regional newspapers for general and financial information plus the most highly watched Spanish television news -. Quantitative and qualitative researches have been used to address the empirical section of this report including, among others, content analysis, narrative factors and different statistics to estimate the relationship between variables. The most significant results are: 1) between 50 and 80% of the print media coverage comes from wire services; 2) this Climate Summit achieves a good position among the most important media agenda issues but, in the half of the cases, a high position on the agenda does not correspond to a high volume of media coverage; 3) it hasn't been identified any relationship between the media's adherence to interacting journalistic norms and the amount of media coverage; 4) dramatization is the journalistic norm to which media shows more adherence; 5) media publishing more articles from wire services are those showing a higher adherence to journalistic norms; 6) narrative factors are organized following a story line plot with introduction, body (or climax) and ending of the event and actions, receiving climax period the highest levels of media coverage. (Author) 93 refs.

  2. Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

    2014-08-01

    This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

  3. Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

    2016-09-01

    Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

  4. Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

  5. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  6. The association of patient safety climate and nurse-related organizational factors with selected patient outcomes: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausserhofer, Dietmar; Schubert, Maria; Desmedt, Mario; Blegen, Mary A; De Geest, Sabina; Schwendimann, René

    2013-02-01

    Patient safety climate (PSC) is an important work environment factor determining patient safety and quality of care in healthcare organizations. Few studies have investigated the relationship between PSC and patient outcomes, considering possible confounding effects of other nurse-related organizational factors. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between PSC and patient outcomes in Swiss acute care hospitals, adjusting for major organizational variables. This is a sub-study of the Swiss arm of the multicenter-cross sectional RN4CAST (Nurse Forecasting: Human Resources Planning in Nursing) study. We utilized data from 1630 registered nurses (RNs) working in 132 surgical, medical and mixed surgical-medical units within 35 Swiss acute care hospitals. PSC was measured with the 9-item Safety Organizing Scale. Other organizational variables measured with established instruments included the quality of the nurse practice environment, implicit rationing of nursing care, nurse staffing, and skill mix levels. We performed multilevel multivariate logistic regression to explore relationships between seven patient outcomes (nurse-reported medication errors, pressure ulcers, patient falls, urinary tract infection, bloodstream infection, pneumonia; and patient satisfaction) and PSC. In none of our regression models was PSC a significant predictor for any of the seven patient outcomes. From our nurse-related organizational variables, the most robust predictor was implicit rationing of nursing care. After controlling for major organizational variables and hierarchical data structure, higher levels of implicit rationing of nursing care resulted in significant decrease in the odds of patient satisfaction (OR=0.276, 95%CI=0.113-0.675) and significant increase in the odds of nurse reported medication errors (OR=2.513, 95%CI=1.118-5.653), bloodstream infections (OR=3.011, 95%CI=1.429-6.347), and pneumonia (OR=2.672, 95%CI=1.117-6.395). We failed to confirm our

  7. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  8. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  9. Relationship between age, size, fecundity and climatic factors in Panax wangianus an endangered medicinal plant in the sacred grove forest of North-East India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    N. Venugopal; Preeti Ahuja

    2011-01-01

    Panax wangianus (Syn. Panax pseudoginseng) S. C. Sun (Araliaceae) is a critically endangered, medicinal plant of North-East India. The objective of this study was to determine how plant size affects flowering phenology and to evaluate the effect of climatic factors on flowering, fruiting and seed production. Data on vegetative and repro- ductive characters were monitored from 2016 individuals of Panax wan- gianus population in Law Lyngdoh, Smit sacred grove in Nongkrem, Shillong, India. Leaflet area was measured by a planimeter. Size vari- ables of both vegetative and reproductive traits in different age classes were measured. Climatic factors were recorded from 2007 to 2009. Age was recorded by counting the number of bud scale scars on the rhizome. Light intensity and relative humidity were measured using a photometer, LiCor Model LI-189 and thermohygrometer respectively. Different cli- maric variables are correlated with vegetative and reproductive phenological events. Statistical analysis revealed that a strong positive correlation was observed between the age versus vegetative and repro- ductive characters, except 1%-2% plants showed neoteny. Morphologi- cal variations were observed in natural conditions on the basis of the number of prong and carpellate conditions. Phenological status revealed that most of the individuals of the age class 35-50 years and above 50 years contributed the most to flowering, fruiting and seed production. Age class was significant to predict the size of the plant and its reproduc- tive capacity. Climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity show synergistic effect on both the vegetative and reproductive phases in Panax wangianus in the undisturbed Nongkrem sacred grove. The color of flowers of P. Wangianus also varied depend- ing upon the sunlight intensity. Therefore, in the view of conservation and management, the age class of 35-50 years and above 50 years is the most important for population

  10. Dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) is resistant to three-factor (elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B-radiation) climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paajanen, Ria; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta; Nybakken, Line; Petrelius, Mari; Tegelberg, Riitta; Pusenius, Jyrki; Rousi, Matti; Kellomäki, Seppo

    2011-04-01

    Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2 ), temperature (T) and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation may affect plant growth and secondary chemistry in different directions, but the effect of the combination of the three factors has seldom been tested. Here, we grew four dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) clones under combinations of ambient or elevated CO2, T and UV-B radiation in top-closed chambers for 7 wk. Elevated UV-B had no effects on growth or phenolic compounds, and there were no significant interactions between UV-B, CO2 and T. CO2 alone increased most growth parameters, but the magnitude of the effect varied among the clones. Total phenolics increased at elevated CO2 , whereas they decreased at elevated T. The responses varied between the clones. The results imply that dark-leaved willow are fairly resistant to the applied three-factor climate change, probably because of high constitutive defense. However, the interactions between clone and climate change factors implies that some clones are more susceptible than the species as a whole.

  11. Drought trends based on the VCI and its correlation with climate factors in the agricultural areas of China from 1982 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Xiaojin; Liang, Liang; Shen, Qiu; Sun, Qin; Zhang, Lianpeng; Liu, Zhixiao; Zhao, Shuhe; Qin, Zhihao

    2016-11-01

    Drought is a type of natural disaster that has the most significant impacts on agriculture. Regional drought monitoring based on remote sensing has become popular due to the development of remote sensing technology. In this study, vegetation condition index (VCI) data recorded from 1982 to 2010 in agricultural areas of China were obtained from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in each drought were analyzed. The relationships between drought and climate factors were also analyzed. The results showed that from 1982 to 2010, the agricultural areas that experienced frequent and severe droughts were mainly concentrated in the northwestern areas and Huang-Huai Plain. Moreover, the VCI increased in the majority of agricultural areas, indicating that the drought frequency decreased over time, and the decreasing trend in the southern region was more notable than that in the northern region. A correlation analysis showed that temperature and wind velocity were the main factors that influenced drought in the agricultural areas of China. Fr