WorldWideScience

Sample records for factors including climate

  1. Coastal erosion's influencing factors include development, dams, wells, and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubrey, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The demographic flight to the coast, begun in early civilization, continues unabated worldwide according to latest studies. The percentage of population living on the coast is expected to remain relatively constant over the next few decades, but the total numbers will increase as the population increases. Recent coastal battering by hurricanes and extratropical storms poses questions about coastal habitability and the real economics of coastal development. Repair costs are borne by private individuals as well as the public in various direct and indirect ways. As these costs escalate, it is fitting to ask what the future portends for storm and coastal-flood damage. It is known that development pressures will continue to increase along the coast, but what will happen concurrently to natural-hazard threats to this infrastructure? Though much emphasis has been placed on sea-level rise, the broader issue is climate change in general. Here, the author considers climate change in both its natural and anthropogenic perspectives. Without becoming mired in the debate about the greenhouse effect and human influence on climatic shifts, some of the broad classes of natural hazards that might accompany climate change are examined. There are several categories of possible global-change effects on coastal erosion. In the early 1980's, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report postulated increases in global sea level up to 4 meters during the next 100 years. Though balanced somewhat by other, lower estimates of sea-level rise, this higher extreme grabbed public attention. During the next decade, scientists attempted to concur on a more reasonable estimate of global sea-level rise due to climate change. Recent credible estimates suggest that approximately 10 to 20 percent of EPA's earlier maximum estimate is most reasonable

  2. Including climate change in energy investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ybema, J.R.; Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Smit, J.T.J.

    1995-08-01

    To properly take climate change into account in the analysis of energy investment decisions, it is required to apply decision analysis methods that are capable of considering the specific characteristics of climate change (large uncertainties, long term horizon). Such decision analysis methods do exist. They can explicitly include evolving uncertainties, multi-stage decisions, cumulative effects and risk averse attitudes. Various methods are considered in this report and two of these methods have been selected: hedging calculations and sensitivity analysis. These methods are applied to illustrative examples, and its limitations are discussed. The examples are (1a) space heating and hot water for new houses from a private investor perspective and (1b) as example (1a) but from a government perspective, (2) electricity production with an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (ICGCC) with or without CO 2 removal, and (3) national energy strategy to hedge for climate change. 9 figs., 21 tabs., 42 refs., 1 appendix

  3. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  4. CLIMATE AS A RISK FACTOR FOR TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ÁKOS NÉMETH

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate risk factors for tourism are surveyed and illustrated with regard to the expected climate changes in Hungary. These changes are not at all advantageous and which affect the business in question both directly and indirectly. These are the summer resort tourism (characterised by bioclimatic indices. Green tourism is the next one to characterise, including skiing, mountain climbing and eco-tourism, as well. Here both day-to-day weather extremes and long-lasting effects on the biota (e.g. drought, or inundation for plain-area eco-tourism. Last, but not least the urban (cultural- and shopping- tourism is presented, since the large towns exhibit their special climate and different risks. The paper intends to specify these meteorological factors and effects also in terms of the different types of touristic activities. The general statements on the effect of weather and climate on tourism are illustrated by a few individual parameters and also by the so called Physiologically Equivalent Temperature. Annual and diurnal course of this parameter are presented, together with various trends in this variable at different sites and in different (hot and cold extremities of the occurring values. Other examples, helping the tourism industry are presented in various climate conditions of the country. They include high precipitation and high relative humidity information. The paper also lists the possible adaptation measures to extreme events and also their likely changes in time.

  5. Options for including nitrogen management in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, J.W.

    2010-12-01

    The outline of the presentation is as follows: Climate change and nitrogen; Nitrogen and climate interlinkages; Options for nitrogen management; Report, workshop and IPCC; and Conclusions. The concluding remarks are: Fertilizing the biosphere with reactive nitrogen compounds lead to ecosystem, health, water and climate impacts; Nitrogen deposition can lead to additional carbon sequestration and to impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services; Nitrogen addition to the biosphere might have a net cooling effect of 1 W/m 2 ; Life Cycle Analysis is needed to show the full impact; and Nitrogen management is essential for the environment and can have a positive effect on the net GHG exchange.

  6. Should Psychosocial Safety Climate Theory Be Extended to Include Climate Strength?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afsharian, Ali; Zadow, Amy; Dollard, Maureen F; Dormann, Christian; Ziaian, Tahereh

    2017-08-31

    Psychosocial safety climate (PSC; climate for psychological health) is an organizational antecedent to work conditions articulated in the job demands-resources model. We responded to calls for broader consideration of organizational climate in terms of both climate level and strength. We tested PSC level and strength as main and interactive predictors of work conditions, psychological health, and engagement. Using multilevel analysis and cross-sectional data, the effects of unit-level PSC constructs were investigated in 21 hospital work units (n = 249 employees) in Australia. The correlation between PSC levels (measured at the unit mean) and PSC strength (measured as unit -1 × SD) was moderate and positive, suggesting that ceiling effects of PSC scores were not problematic. PSC level was a better predictor than PSC strength or their interactions for job demands (psychological and emotional demands), job resources (e.g., skill discretion and organizational support), and health (emotional exhaustion). For engagement, the interaction was significant-improving engagement, therefore, benefits from high levels of PSC and PSC strength within the work units. So, in answer to the research question regarding PSC theory extension, "it depends on the outcome." Research limitations are acknowledged, and the potential of the PSC model to guide the reduction of workplace psychosocial risk factors and the negative consequences is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  8. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  9. Climate change: Factors and forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  10. SCHOOL CLIMATE AND TEACHERS’ PERCEPTIONS ON CLIMATE FACTORS:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İlhan GÜNBAYI

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the difference in the levels of the variables related to the schoolclimate factors among the teachers teaching social science courses, the teachers teaching natural science courses,and the teachers teaching art, music and physical education. The data collected from a sample of 204 teachersfrom 9 urban schools serving general high school education in the centre of Afyon and Usak cities in Turkey bymeans of the questionnaire developed by the researcher in the academic year of 2001-2002. The questionnaireasked the participants to report the perceived school climate levels of the variables related to the organizationalclimate factors - organizational clarity and standards, team commitment, autonomy, intimacy and support,member conflict, rewards, and risk - on the open-to-closed continuum. The data collected were analyzed by t-testfor Equality of Means and Analysis of Variance and Tukey post hoc tests. As a result of the analyzes, all theteachers reported open climate in relation to the factors of team commitment, organizational clarity andstandards, intimacy and support , autonomy, member conflict, medium climate in relation to the factors of riskand in reward. Additionally, the teachers teaching art, music and physical education reported higher open schoolclimate than others, man than women, single teachers than married ones, the teachers with more degree ofeducation than the ones with a lower degree of education, older teachers than younger ones, and the teacherswith less seniority than the ones with more seniority. Finally, some ideas were suggested about what should bedone in helping teachers to work in a more desirable open school climate

  11. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  12. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  13. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  14. Risk Factors for Breast Cancer, Including Occupational Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Weiderpass

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge on the etiology of breast cancer has advanced substantially in recent years, and several etiological factors are now firmly established. However, very few new discoveries have been made in relation to occupational risk factors. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated over 900 different exposures or agents to-date to determine whether they are carcinogenic to humans. These evaluations are published as a series of Monographs (www.iarc.fr. For breast cancer the following substances have been classified as “carcinogenic to humans” (Group 1: alcoholic beverages, exposure to diethylstilbestrol, estrogen-progestogen contraceptives, estrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapy and exposure to X-radiation and gamma-radiation (in special populations such as atomic bomb survivors, medical patients, and in-utero exposure. Ethylene oxide is also classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, although the evidence for carcinogenicity in epidemiologic studies, and specifically for the human breast, is limited. The classification “probably carcinogenic to humans” (Group 2A includes estrogen hormone replacement therapy, tobacco smoking, and shift work involving circadian disruption, including work as a flight attendant. If the association between shift work and breast cancer, the most common female cancer, is confirmed, shift work could become the leading cause of occupational cancer in women.

  15. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Peter C.

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  16. Influence of Climate Factors on Rice Yields in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dek Vimean Pheakdey

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and precipitation have been known as the key determinant factors to affect rice production in climate change. In this study, the relationship between climate variables and rice yields during 1993–2012 in Cambodia was analyzed and evaluated. The Ordinary Least Squares analysis was applied to examine the relationship of three climate variables (TCV including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall against seasonal rice yields. By this period, a remarkable increasing trend of annual temperature was observed whilst rainfall was not significantly changed. The TCV explains approximately 63% and 56% of the variability of rice yields in wet and dry seasons, respectively. It is found that in Cambodia, non-climate factors such as fertilizers, water, cultivars, and soil fertility cause 40% variation to rice yields, whereas the remaining 60% can be influenced by climate variability. The levels of temperature difference (LTD between maximum and minimum temperatures of the wet season (WS and dry season (DS were 7.0 and 8.6 oC, respectively. The lower value of LTD may cause the reduction of rice in WS (2.2 tons/ha as compared to that of DS (3.0 tons/ha. Rice yield has increased 50.5% and 33.8% in DS and WS, respectively, may due to the improvement of rice cultivation practices in Cambodia such as the better use of fertilizers, pest and weed control, and irrigation, and more effective rice cultivated protocol, as the increased trend of temperature may detrimentally affect rice yield. The breeding of heat and drought tolerance rice varieties and development of irrigation system are effective to reduce the negative influence from climate change to rice production in Cambodia.

  17. [Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

    2015-11-01

    Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C.

  18. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  19. Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu

    2017-06-01

    To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate, including global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avakyan, S V; Leonov, N B; Voronin, N A; Baranova, L A; Savinov, E P

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment, connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385, 385.2, 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8–115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996–2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation—open secondary electron multipliers, which are 'solar blind' to near UV, visible and IR radiation from the Sun, and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878)

  1. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...... the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen...

  2. Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate, including global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avakyan, S. V.; Baranova, L. A.; Leonov, N. B.; Savinov, E. P.; Voronin, N. A.

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment, connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385, 385.2, 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8-115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996-2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation—open secondary electron multipliers, which are 'solar blind' to near UV, visible and IR radiation from the Sun, and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878). This article was originally submitted for inclusion with the papers from the 9th International Symposium on Measurement Science and Intelligent Instruments (ISMTII-2009), published in the May 2010 issue.

  3. International colloquium challenge climate for the France: the factor 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The objective factor 4 is the division by four of the greenhouse gases emission. This colloquium aims to define possible actions to reach this objective. The first part concerns presentations of personalities of the domain and offers an international panorama of the energetic and environmental policies, against the climatic change and how to reconcile economic growth with climatic change. The second part wonders on the mobilization of the actors sectors in a national and international framework. (A.L.B.)

  4. [Advance to the research of the climate factor effect on the distribution of plague].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A P; Wei, R J; Xiong, H M; Wang, Z Y

    2016-05-01

    Plague is an anthropozoonotic disease caused by the Yersinia pestis ,which developed by many factors including local climate factors. In recent years, more and more studies on the effects of climate on plague were conducted. According to the researches, climate factors (mainly the rainfall and temperature) affected the development and distribution of plague by influencing the abundance of plague host animals and fleas index. The climate also affected the epidemic dynamics and the scope of plague. There were significant differences existing in the influence of climate on the palgue developed in the north and south China. In the two different plague epidemic systems, the solitary Daurian ground squirrel-flea-plague and the social Mongolian gerbil-flea-plague, the obvious population differences existed among the responses of the host animal to the climate changes. Although the internal relationship between the rainfall, the flea index, the density of rodents and the plague supported the nutritional cascade hypothesis, it can not prove that there is a clear causality between the occurrence of plague and rainfall. So the influence of climate factors on plague distribution can only be used for early forecasting and warning of the plague.

  5. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  6. CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

    2018-03-01

    This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

  7. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shawn Urbanski

    2014-01-01

    While the vast majority of carbon emitted by wildland fires is released as CO2, CO, and CH4, wildland fire smoke is nonetheless a rich and complex mixture of gases and aerosols. Primary emissions include significant amounts of CH4 and aerosol (organic aerosol and black carbon), which are short-lived climate forcers. In addition to CO2 and short-lived climate forcers,...

  8. Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

  9. Climatic factors and bipolar affective disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ellen Margrethe; Larsen, Jens Knud; Gjerris, Annette

    2008-01-01

    In bipolar disorder, the factors provoking a new episode are unknown. As a seasonal variation has been noticed, it has been suggested that weather conditions may play a role. The aim of the study was to elucidate whether meteorological parameters influence the development of new bipolar phases....... A group of patients with at least three previous hospitalizations for bipolar disorder was examined every 3 months for up to 3 years. At each examination an evaluation of the affective phase was made according to the Hamilton Depression Scale (HAM-D(17)), and the Bech-Rafaelsen Mania Rating Scale (MAS......). In the same period, daily recordings from the Danish Meteorological Institute were received. We found no correlations between onset of bipolar episodes [defined as MAS score of 11 or more (mania) and as HAM-D(17) score of 12 or more (depression)] and any meteorological parameters. We found a statistical...

  10. Harvest time of Cryptomeria japonica seeds depending on climate factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seog-Gu; Kim, Hyo-Jeong; Kim, Chang-Soo; Byun, Kwang-Ok

    2010-05-01

    Sound seeds should have good germination rates and seed germination can be influenced by several factors. Seed picking time is regarded as one of the necessary elements to obtain sound seeds. From a clonal seed orchard of Cryptomeria japonica located in southern part of Korean peninsular, cones were picked about every 10 days from 30th of July 2005 to 30th of October in both 2005 and 2006. We have also analyzed the effects of climatic factors about two consecutive years on seed productivity. From the picked cones, seeds were collected and these germination ability, seed size and embryo shapes were investigated according to cone picking time. The 1,000-seed weight picked on 18th of August was 3.3 g and 5.3 g on 30th of September 2005and 2006. The size of seeds picked from 18th of August to 30th of September increased from 19.3 mm to 21.3 mm in length and from 15.8 mm to 18.5 mm in width. Depending on picking time, various shapes of embryos, including embryos with liquid material, jellied material and fully matured ones were observed. Germination aspects also varied throughout the test days. About two weeks after seeding in a glass petri-dish, germinal apparatuses appeared from each test seed sets which had been picked from after 10 August 2005 and 10 August 2006. The germination rates started from 10.7% from seeds picked 20 August 2006. Average germination rate in 2005 was 18.3 and 19.6 in 2006. In 2005, the highest germination rate was 34.3% from seeds picked on the 30th of September. In 2006, the highest germination rate was 31.7% for seeds picked at the same date as the 2005 seeds. After September, the highest germination rate for picked seeds decreased in both 2005 and 2006. Among the climatic factors, monthly sum of temperature and of precipitation were the main factors for maturation of C. japonica seeds. The results implied that the best cone picking time for the Korean C. japonica seed orchard to be around the end of September.

  11. A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas

    2017-05-01

    Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.

  12. Relationships between climatic factors and the diet selected by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ecological nature of pasture utilization, where a climatic factor cannot solely account for the variation in nutrients selected, could be responsible for this apparent anomaly. Dudzinski & Arnold. (1973) stated that principal-component analysis appears to be useful for interpretation of results where plant x animal.

  13. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

  14. Evaluation of Limiting Climatic Factors and Simulation of a Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    Full Text Available Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in reclamation and soil and water conservation. For scientific cultivation of this species across China, we identified the key climatic factors and explored climatically suitable habitat in order to maximize survival of Chinese sea buckthorn using MaxEnt and GIS tools, based on 98 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 13 climatic factors from Bioclim, Holdridge life zone and Kria' index variables. Our simulation showed that the MaxEnt model performance was significantly better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.93 with 10-fold cross validation. A jackknife test and the regularized gain change, which were applied to the training algorithm, showed that precipitation of the driest month (PDM, annual precipitation (AP, coldness index (CI and annual range of temperature (ART were the most influential climatic factors in limiting the distribution of Chinese sea buckthorn, which explained 70.1% of the variation. The predicted map showed that the core of climatically suitable habitat was distributed from the southwest to northwest of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, where the most influential climate variables were PDM of 1.0-7.0 mm, AP of 344.0-1089.0 mm, CI of -47.7-0.0°C, and ART of 26.1-45.0°C. We conclude that the distribution patterns of Chinese sea buckthorn are related to the northwest winter monsoon, the southwest summer monsoon and the southeast summer monsoon systems in China.

  15. Should we include avoidance of deforestation in the international response to climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlamadinger, B. [Joanneum Research, Graz (Austria); Ciccarese, L. [Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services, Rome (Italy); Dutschke, M. [Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg (Germany); Fearnside, P.M. [Department of Ecology, National Institute for Amazonian Research INPA, Belem, Para (Brazil); Brown, S. [Winrock International, Little Rock, Arkansas (United States); Murdiyarso, D. [Center for International Forestry Research, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2005-07-01

    Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that during the 1990's 16.1 million hectares per year were affected by deforestation, most of them in the tropics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that, for the same period, the contribution of land-use changes to GHG accumulation into the atmosphere was 1.6{+-}0.8 Giga (1G=109) tonnes of carbon per year, a quantity that corresponds to 25% of the total annual global emissions of GHGs. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in recognising climate change as a serious threat, urged counties to take up measures to enhance and conserve ecosystems such as forests that act as reservoirs and sinks of GHGs. The Kyoto Protocol (KP), adopted in 1997, complements the UNFCCC by providing an enforceable agreement with quantitative targets for reducing GHG emissions. For fulfilling their emission-limitation commitments under the KP, industrialized countries (listed in the KP's Annex I) can use land-based activities, such as reducing deforestation, establishing new forests (afforestation and reforestation) and other vegetation types, managing agricultural and forestlands in a way that the 'carbon sink' is maximized. Annex I countries may also claim credit for carbon sequestration in developing countries by afforestation and reforestation (AR) through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the 'Kyoto Mechanisms' that allow countries to achieve reductions where it is economically efficient to do so. For the period 2008-2012, forestry activities under the CDM have been restricted to afforestation and reforestation on areas that were not forested in 1990. In addition, CDM projects must lead to emission reductions or net carbon uptake additional to what would have occurred without the CDM funding

  16. Factor structure of the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema measure of social climate in a UK medium-security setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milsom, Sophia A; Freestone, Mark; Duller, Rachel; Bouman, Marisa; Taylor, Celia

    2014-04-01

    Social climate has an influence on a number of treatment-related factors, including service users' behaviour, staff morale and treatment outcomes. Reliable assessment of social climate is, therefore, beneficial within forensic mental health settings. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) has been validated in forensic mental health services in the UK and Germany. Preliminary normative data have been produced for UK high-security national health services and German medium-security and high-security services. We aim to validate the use of the EssenCES scale (English version) and provide preliminary normative data in UK medium-security hospital settings. The EssenCES scale was completed in a medium-security mental health service as part of a service-wide audit. A total of 89 patients and 112 staff completed the EssenCES. The three-factor structure of the EssenCES and its internal construct validity were maintained within the sample. Scores from this medium-security hospital sample were significantly higher than those from earlier high-security hospital data, with three exceptions--'patient cohesion' according to the patients and 'therapeutic hold' according to staff and patients. Our data support the use of the EssenCES scale as a valid measure for assessing social climate within medium-security hospital settings. Significant differences between the means of high-security and medium-security service samples imply that degree of security is a relevant factor affecting the ward climate and that in monitoring quality of secure services, it is likely to be important to apply different scores to reflect standards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Dransfield, John

    2010-01-01

    -climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions......, water-related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non-environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability...

  18. Spatial diffusion of influenza outbreak-related climate factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakapan, Supachai; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Tipdecho, Taravudh; Souris, Marc

    2012-10-24

    Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

  19. Spatial Diffusion of Influenza Outbreak-Related Climate Factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Souris

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

  20. The Relationship between Climatic Factors and the Prevalence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in North West of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eslam Moradiasl

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is most commonly found among children under the age of 10 in some provinces of Iran including Ardabil. As such, this study set out to determine the relationship between some climatic factors and the prevalence of VL in Northwest of Iran. Materials and Methods In this descriptive-analytic study, data collection was done on some climatic factors including rainfall, temperature, and the number of sunny and snowy days from Apr. 2001 to Sep. 2017 from the weather station in Meshkinshahr County of Ardabil province, Iran, and the related information of the VL patients from the health center. Statistical analysis was done using Excel and SPSS version 23.0 software. Pearson correlation coefficient test was utilized for data analysis. Results Over the course of 17 years, 226 cases of VL occurred in rural and urban areas of Meshkinshahr. The highest prevalence of VL disease was reported in February and March. Climatic factors of temperature and the number of sunny days showed a direct relationship with the prevalence of VL disease (P0.05.   Conclusion In spite of the rather cold and humid climate of Meshkinshahr County during much of the year, based on the findings of present study, there was a significantly direct relationship between VL disease and the hot temperature as well as sunny days. Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is most commonly found among children under the age of 10 in some provinces of Iran including Ardabil. As such, this study set out to determine the relationship between some climatic factors and the prevalence of VL in Northwest of Iran. Materials and Methods In this descriptive-analytic study, data collection was done on some climatic factors including rainfall, temperature, and the number of sunny and snowy days from Apr. 2001 to Sep. 2017 from the weather station in Meshkinshahr County of Ardabil province, Iran, and the related information of the VL patients from the health center

  1. Induced Systemic Tolerance to Multiple Stresses Including Biotic and Abiotic Factors by Rhizobacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Je Yoo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, global warming and drastic climate change are the greatest threat to the world. The climate change can affect plant productivity by reducing plant adaptation to diverse environments including frequent high temperature; worsen drought condition and increased pathogen transmission and infection. Plants have to survive in this condition with a variety of biotic (pathogen/pest attack and abiotic stress (salt, high/low temperature, drought. Plants can interact with beneficial microbes including plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria, which help plant mitigate biotic and abiotic stress. This overview presents that rhizobacteria plays an important role in induced systemic resistance (ISR to biotic stress or induced systemic tolerance (IST to abiotic stress condition; bacterial determinants related to ISR and/or IST. In addition, we describe effects of rhizobacteria on defense/tolerance related signal pathway in plants. We also review recent information including plant resistance or tolerance against multiple stresses (bioticabiotic. We desire that this review contribute to expand understanding and knowledge on the microbial application in a constantly varying agroecosystem, and suggest beneficial microbes as one of alternative environment-friendly application to alleviate multiple stresses.

  2. From A Climate Action Plan (CAP to a Microgrid: The SEEU Sustainability Concept Including Social Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alajdin Abazi

    2011-07-01

    The paper delves into the recent events and attacks either undertaken or influenced by Al-Shabaab, including a snap shot of its threat to humanitarian aid personnel as well as the Africa Union troops who are desperately trying to lower the intensity of conflict along the Somalia Kenya border area and Al-Shabaab’s actions to secure financial resources.

  3. Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May and winter (November to January, during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model

  4. Patterns of Tree Species Diversity in Relation to Climatic Factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9–14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

  5. Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Flores, Ramón; Pérez-Verdín, Gustavo; Wehenkel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Biological diversity can be defined as variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial organisms, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes which they are part of. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems. Numerous diversity indices combine richness and evenness in a single expression, and several climate-based explanations have been proposed to explain broad-scale diversity patterns. However, climate-based water-energy dynamics appears to be an essential factor that determines patterns of diversity. The Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental occupies an area of about 29 million hectares and is located between the Neotropical and Holarctic ecozones. It shelters a high diversity of flora, including 24 different species of Pinus (ca. 22% on the whole), 54 species of Quercus (ca. 9-14%), 7 species of Arbutus (ca. 50%) and many other trees species. The objectives of this study were to model how tree species diversity is related to climatic and geographic factors and stand density and to test the Metabolic Theory, Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis, Mid-Domain Effect, and the Water-Energy Dynamic Theory on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango. The results supported the Productivity-Diversity Hypothesis, Physiological Tolerance Hypothesis and Water-Energy Dynamic Theory, but not the Mid-Domain Effect or Metabolic Theory. The annual aridity index was the variable most closely related to the diversity indices analyzed. Contemporary climate was found to have moderate to strong effects on the minimum, median and maximum tree species diversity. Because water-energy dynamics provided a satisfactory explanation for the patterns of minimum, median and maximum diversity, an understanding of this factor is critical to future biodiversity research. Quantile regression of the data showed that the three diversity parameters of tree species are generally higher in cold

  6. Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

  7. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  8. On the use of risk-informed regulation including organizational factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibelli, S.M.O.; Alvarenga, M.A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk-Informed Regulation (RIR) can be applied by using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a basic tool. Traditionally, PSA methodology encompasses the calculation of failure probabilities of Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) and direct associated human errors. However, there are indirect causes related to human failures, associated with Organizational Factors, which are normally not included in fault trees, that may influence plant risk evaluation. This paper discusses on possible applications of RIR and on Organizational Factors. It also presents a classification of Angra-1 NPP unresolved issues, aiming a future inclusion of these factors into a PSA calculation. (author)

  9. Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements. Thinking outside the box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S.; Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)

    2007-06-15

    This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

  10. Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)]. E-mail: penan@pewclimate.org; Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy)

    2007-06-15

    This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

  11. Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

  12. Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

    2012-01-01

    Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

  13. Some factors including radiation affecting the productivity of proteinase enzymes by mucor lamprosporus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kabbany, H.M.I.

    1996-01-01

    In the present time, great attention has been focused on the production of milk clotting enzymes from microbial source for use as remain substitute due to the increasing demands on rennin for cheese making and the prohibition of the slaughter of small calves. The present investigation included the isolation and identification of remin-like enzyme fungal producers from different egyptian food and soil samples. Different factors including gamma radiation affecting the capability of selected isolate to produce the enzyme was also included. Special attention has also given to study the effect of different purification methods of the produced enzyme. The properties of the purified enzyme were also investigated

  14. Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustsson, Anna; Filipsson, Monika; Oberg, Tomas; Bergbaeck, Bo

    2011-01-01

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the

  15. Factoring the car-climate challenge: Insights and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeCicco, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Three approaches commonly are identified for controlling automobile greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: reducing travel demand, improving vehicle efficiency and using alternatively (non-petroleum) fueled vehicles (AFVs). Similarly, sector emissions are factored by travel distance, vehicle fuel intensity and fuel GHG (“carbon”) intensity. Analyzing these factors using US and China data reveals that for a broad range of conditions, stringent GHG emissions limits for the auto sector imply limits of comparable stringency for fuel carbon intensity. However, carbon intensity is a modeled representation of complex energy supply and use systems rather than a measurable property of fuels themselves. Carefully examining the locations and magnitudes of fuel-related emissions indicates that the proper policy focus is on the sectors that supply fuel rather than the choice of fuels in the auto sector. Therefore, beyond fundamental R and D, policies to commercialize AFVs are not necessarily required for climate protection at present. In addition to managing travel demand and improving vehicle efficiency, the implied policy priority is limiting net GHG impacts in the energy and other natural resource sectors that supply fuels. Future work is needed to develop GHG management protocols for liquid fuel supply systems involving fungible commodities and dynamic global supply chains. - Highlights: • Factor analysis offers insights about ways to reduce automotive GHG emissions. • Improving vehicle efficiency and reducing travel demand remain important. • Reducing net GHG impacts in energy sectors that supply motor fuels is also a priority. • Commercialization of alternatively fueled vehicles is not necessarily required at present

  16. Climate and terrain factors explaining streamflow response and recession in Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. J. M. van Dijk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Daily streamflow data were analysed to assess which climate and terrain factors best explain streamflow response in 183 Australian catchments. Assessed descriptors of catchment response included the parameters of fitted baseflow models, and baseflow index (BFI, average quick flow and average baseflow derived by baseflow separation. The variation in response between catchments was compared with indicators of catchment climate, morphology, geology, soils and land use. Spatial coherence in the residual unexplained variation was investigated using semi-variogram techniques. A linear reservoir model (one parameter; recession coefficient produced baseflow estimates as good as those obtained using a non-linear reservoir (two parameters and for practical purposes was therefore considered an appropriate balance between simplicity and explanatory performance. About a third (27–34% of the spatial variation in recession coefficients and BFI was explained by catchment climate indicators, with another 53% of variation being spatially correlated over distances of 100–150 km, probably indicative of substrate characteristics not captured by the available soil and geology data. The shortest recession half-times occurred in the driest catchments and were attributed to intermittent occurrence of fast-draining (possibly perched groundwater. Most (70–84% of the variation in average baseflow and quick flow was explained by rainfall and climate characteristics; another 20% of variation was spatially correlated over distances of 300–700 km, possibly reflecting a combination of terrain and climate factors. It is concluded that catchment streamflow response can be predicted quite well on the basis of catchment climate alone. The prediction of baseflow recession response should be improved further if relevant substrate properties were identified and measured.

  17. An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

  18. Policies for including disabled people in education. obstacles and facilitating factors for their implementation: Bucaramanga, 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia P. Serrano R

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to explore the factors enabling or hindering the implementation of inclusive education policies for the disabled population of Bucaramanga. Methodology: a descriptive study, involving representatives from governmental agencies (EG, members of the faculty boards of educational institutions (DIE and guardians of disabled individuals (APSD. Physical, social, and political obstacles and facilitating factors that could potentially determine the implementation of these policies were analyzed. Data was collected through interviews. Results: there was a total of 2, 32, and 34 participants from the EG, DIE, and APSD groups respectively. Identified obstacles included: lack of strategies to support educational institutions, poor or limited teacher training, high tuition fees, and negative attitude towards disability. The facilitating factors included: availability of places, inclusion of this issue in the political agenda, and desire of the disabled individuals’ families to provide them with education. Discussion: These findings provide useful information for further research on this issue and show how action has been taken, as well as how urgent it is to establish a direct relationship between academia and the public sector to propose strategies for assessing and modifying these policies.

  19. Behavioral factors to include in guidelines for lifelong oral healthiness: an observational study in Japanese adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimozato Miho

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to determine which behavioral factors to include in guidelines for the Japanese public to achieve an acceptable level of oral healthiness. The objective was to determine the relationship between oral health related behaviors and symptoms related to oral disease and tooth loss in a Japanese adult community. Methods Oral health status and lifestyle were investigated in 777 people aged 20 years and older (390 men and 387 women. Subjects were asked to complete a postal questionnaire concerning past diet and lifestyle. The completed questionnaires were collected when they had health examinations. The 15 questions included their preference for sweets, how many between-meal snacks they usually had per day, smoking and drinking habits, presence of oral symptoms, and attitudes towards dental visits. Participants were asked about their behaviors at different stages of their life. The oral health examinations included examination of the oral cavity and teeth performed by dentists using WHO criteria. Odds ratios were calculated for all subjects, all 10 year age groups, and for subjects 30 years or older, 40 years or older, 50 years or older, and 60 years or older. Results Frequency of tooth brushing (OR = 3.98, having your own toothbrush (OR = 2.11, smoking (OR = 2.71 and bleeding gums (OR = 2.03 were significantly associated with number of retained teeth in males. Frequency of between-meal snacks was strongly associated with number of retained teeth in females (OR = 4.67. Having some hobbies (OR = 2.97, having a family dentist (OR = 2.34 and consulting a dentist as soon as symptoms occurred (OR = 1.74 were significantly associated with number of retained teeth in females. Factors that were significantly associated with tooth loss in both males and females included alcohol consumption (OR = 11.96, males, OR = 3.83, females, swollen gums (OR = 1.93, males, OR = 3.04, females and toothache (OR = 3.39, males, OR

  20. Estimating productivity of tropical forest plantations by climatic factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandey, D.

    1996-12-31

    This study presents an alternative method of estimating wood production at regional/global levels from tropical plantations based on climatic variables. A generic model for estimating potential yield in tropical plantations was formulated. The model was developed for teak (Tectona grandis L. F.) as a case study. Available data of teak sample plots from India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast, consisting of 153 plots distributed over 38 meteorological stations were used. A new base age invariant site index function was developed and the site index of each plot was estimated. The mean annual volume increment (MAI) of each plot from existing yield tables was then interpolated. Treating MAI at 50 years (rotation age) as potential yield of teak, a model was constructed which could explain about 59% variance of the potential yield. Models constructed for estimating the maximum MAI and the site index of teak explained the variability up to 61% and 57% respectively. The models underestimated the productivity of teak in Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. The rainfall and the relative humidity have been identified as the most important climatic variables influencing the growth of teak. The length of the growing season and the temperature of the warmest month of the growing season were found significant in the models. The temperature and the day length (sunshine) have not been found to be the limiting factors for the growth of teak. However, the maximum temperature beyond a certain upper limit has a negative effect on growth. The study indicates that this upper limit is around 33 deg C for teak. The models could be used to forecast the potential yield of the existing as well as planned teak plantations in the tropical region. 109 refs, 15 figs, 11 tabs

  1. Revised emission factors for gas engines including start/stop emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, Malene; Boll Illerup, J.; Birr-Petersen, K.

    2008-06-15

    Liberalisation of the electricity market has led to Danish gas engine plants increasingly converting to the spot and regulating power markets. In order to offer regulating power, plants need to be able to start and stop the engines at the plants quickly. The liberalisation causes a considerable change of operation practice of the engines e.g. less full load operation hours /year. The project provides an inventory determining the scale of the emissions during the start and stop sequence as well as proposals for engine modifications aimed at reducing start/stop emissions. This report includes calculation of emission factors as well as an inventory of total emissions and reduction potentials. (au)

  2. Children and adolescents' internal models of food-sharing behavior include complex evaluations of contextual factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovits, Henry; Benenson, Joyce F; Kramer, Donald L

    2003-01-01

    This study examined internal representations of food sharing in 589 children and adolescents (8-19 years of age). Questionnaires, depicting a variety of contexts in which one person was asked to share a resource with another, were used to examine participants' expectations of food-sharing behavior. Factors that were varied included the value of the resource, the relation between the two depicted actors, the quality of this relation, and gender. Results indicate that internal models of food-sharing behavior showed systematic patterns of variation, demonstrating that individuals have complex contextually based internal models at all ages, including the youngest. Examination of developmental changes in use of individual patterns is consistent with the idea that internal models reflect age-specific patterns of interactions while undergoing a process of progressive consolidation.

  3. Climatic factors associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a spatial analysis from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Ching-Piao; Tzu-Chi Lee, Charles

    2013-11-01

    Few studies have assessed the spatial association of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in the world. The aim of this study was to identify the association of climatic factors and ALS incidence in Taiwan. A total of 1,434 subjects with the primary diagnosis of ALS between years 1997 and 2008 were identified in the national health insurance research database. The diagnosis was also verified by the national health insurance programme, which had issued and providing them with "serious disabling disease (SDD) certificates". Local indicators of spatial association were employed to investigate spatial clustering of age-standardised incidence ratios in the townships of the study area. Spatial regression was utilised to reveal any association of annual average climatic factors and ALS incidence for the 12-year study period. The climatic factors included the annual average time of sunlight exposure, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed with spatial autocorrelation controlled. Significant correlations were only found for exposure to sunlight and rainfall and it was similar in both genders. The annual average of the former was found to be negatively correlated with ALS, while the latter was positively correlated with ALS incidence. While accepting that ALS is most probably multifactorial, it was concluded that sunlight deprivation and/or rainfall are associated to some degree with ALS incidence in Taiwan.

  4. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E

    2010-07-12

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.

  5. International colloquium challenge climate for the France: the factor 4; Colloque international defi climat pour la France: le facteur 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The objective factor 4 is the division by four of the greenhouse gases emission. This colloquium aims to define possible actions to reach this objective. The first part concerns presentations of personalities of the domain and offers an international panorama of the energetic and environmental policies, against the climatic change and how to reconcile economic growth with climatic change. The second part wonders on the mobilization of the actors secton a national and international framework. (A.L.B.)

  6. Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

    2016-12-15

    Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Constantin de Magny

    Full Text Available Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

  8. Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

  9. A constriction factor based particle swarm optimisation algorithm to solve the economic dispatch problem including losses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, Steven; Montakhab, Mohammad; Nouri, Hassan

    2011-07-15

    Economic dispatch (ED) is one of the most important problems to be solved in power generation as fractional percentage fuel reductions represent significant cost savings. ED wishes to optimise the power generated by each generating unit in a system in order to find the minimum operating cost at a required load demand, whilst ensuring both equality and inequality constraints are met. For the process of optimisation, a model must be created for each generating unit. The particle swarm optimisation technique is an evolutionary computation technique with one of the most powerful methods for solving global optimisation problems. The aim of this paper is to add in a constriction factor to the particle swarm optimisation algorithm (CFBPSO). Results show that the algorithm is very good at solving the ED problem and that CFBPSO must be able to work in a practical environment and so a valve point effect with transmission losses should be included in future work.

  10. CLIMAITE - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, T. N.; Beier, C.; Albert, K.; Ro-Poulsen, H.

    2007-12-01

    The Danish multi factorial climate change effects on vegetation experiment (Climaite) have now been conducted for two years on semi-natural grassland. The day time [CO2], night time temperature and precipitation (drought) have been altered, according to a regional climate change model for the year 2075, in a full factorial split plot design. The manipulated area for each treatment is 7 m2 and it is replicated 6 times. The CO2 and temperature treatments have been conducted continuously except for periods with snow cover. The CO2 is enhanced to 510 ppm via a FACE system based on concentrated CO2 released upwind under pressure. The control of the [CO2] varies with wind speed and irradiation, but during 50 percent of the fumigation period the target concentration was kept within +/-5 percent. The temperature treatment is conducted via infrared reflective curtains covering the plots during night time, and the warming of plants and soil depends of the day irradiation, night time wind speed and factors related to seasonality. In general, the air temperature is increased during night time with 1-2 C° and negligible during the day. The soil temperature in 5 cm depth is enhanced to 0.3 - 0.6 C° during night and day. The artificial summer droughts lasted about one month and differences in soil water content were developed over time. By the end of the treatment the èv content in the soil was as low as 0.06 m3 m-3 compared to 0.20 m3 m-3 in the control. Numerous physical and biological parameters in the grassland ecosystem have been measured and several are responding to the changed environment. After 9 months of exposure enhanced [CO2] stimulated the net photosynthesis (based on dry weight) in both of the domination plant species Calluna Vulgaris and Deschampsia flexuosa. When the plants were exposed to short term saturated [CO2] during gasexchange measurements the long term CO2 treated plants also had the highest photosynthesis rate, meaning that the plants were not

  11. Macroenvironmental factors including GDP per capita and physical activity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Adrian J; Van Stralen, Maartje M; Kunst, Anton E; Te Velde, Saskia J; Van Lenthe, Frank J; Salmon, Jo; Brug, Johannes

    2013-02-01

    Socioeconomic inequalities in physical activity at the individual level are well reported. Whether inequalities in economic development and other macroenvironmental variables between countries are also related to physical activity at the country level is comparatively unstudied. We examined the relationship between country-level data on macroenvironmental factors (gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, public sector expenditure on health, percentage living in urban areas, and cars per 1000 population) with country-level physical activity prevalence obtained from previous pan-European studies. Studies that assessed leisuretime physical activity (n = 3 studies including 27 countries in adults, n = 2 studies including 28 countries in children) and total physical activity (n = 3 studies in adults including 16 countries) were analyzed separately as were studies among adults and children. Strong and consistent positive correlations were observed between country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity and country GDP per capita in adults (average r = 0.70; all studies, P G 0.05). In multivariate analysis, country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity among adults remained associated with country GDP per capita (two of three studies) but not urbanization or educational attainment. Among school-age populations, no association was found between country GDP per capita and country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity. In those studies that assessed total physical activity (which also includes occupational and transport physical activity), no association with country GDP per capita was observed. Clear differences in national leisure-time physical activity levels throughout Europe may be a consequence of economic development. Lack of economic development of some countries in Europe may make increasing leisure-time physical activity more difficult. Further examination of the link between country GDP per capita and national physical activity levels (across

  12. Fever in trauma patients: evaluation of risk factors, including traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengualid, Victoria; Talari, Goutham; Rubin, David; Albaeni, Aiham; Ciubotaru, Ronald L; Berger, Judith

    2015-03-01

    The role of fever in trauma patients remains unclear. Fever occurs as a response to release of cytokines and prostaglandins by white blood cells. Many factors, including trauma, can trigger release of these factors. To determine whether (1) fever in the first 48 hours is related to a favorable outcome in trauma patients and (2) fever is more common in patients with head trauma. Retrospective study of trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit for at least 2 days. Data were analyzed by using multivariate analysis. Of 162 patients studied, 40% had fever during the first 48 hours. Febrile patients had higher mortality rates than did afebrile patients. When adjusted for severity of injuries, fever did not correlate with mortality. Neither the incidence of fever in the first 48 hours after admission to the intensive care unit nor the number of days febrile in the unit differed between patients with and patients without head trauma (traumatic brain injury). About 70% of febrile patients did not have a source found for their fever. Febrile patients without an identified source of infection had lower peak white blood cell counts, lower maximum body temperature, and higher minimum platelet counts than did febrile patients who had an infectious source identified. The most common infection was pneumonia. No relationship was found between the presence of fever during the first 48 hours and mortality. Patients with traumatic brain injury did not have a higher incidence of fever than did patients without traumatic brain injury. About 30% of febrile patients had an identifiable source of infection. Further studies are needed to understand the origin and role of fever in trauma patients. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  13. A decision support system prototype including human factors based on the TOGA meta-theory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappelli, M.; Memmi, F.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepielli, M.

    2012-01-01

    The human contribution to the risk of operation of complex technological systems is often not negligible and sometimes tends to become significant, as shown by many reports on incidents and accidents occurred in the past inside Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). An error of a human operator of a NPP can derive by both omission and commission. For instance, complex commission errors can also lead to significant catastrophic technological accidents, as for the case of the Three Mile Island accident. Typically, the problem is analyzed by focusing on the single event chain that has provoked the incident or accident. What is needed is a general framework able to include as many parameters as possible, i.e. both technological and human factors. Such a general model could allow to envisage an omission or commission error before it can happen or, alternatively, suggest preferred actions to do in order to take countermeasures to neutralize the effect of the error before it becomes critical. In this paper, a preliminary Decision Support System (DSS) based on the so-called (-) TOGA meta-theory approach is presented. The application of such a theory to the management of nuclear power plants has been presented in the previous ICAPP 2011. Here, a human factor simulator prototype is proposed in order to include the effect of human errors in the decision path. The DSS has been developed using a TRIGA research reactor as reference plant, and implemented using the LabVIEW programming environment and the Finite State Machine (FSM) model The proposed DSS shows how to apply the Universal Reasoning Paradigm (URP) and the Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) to a real plant context. The DSS receives inputs from instrumentation data and gives as output a suggested decision. It is obtained as the result of an internal elaborating process based on a performance function. The latter, describes the degree of satisfaction and efficiency, which are dependent on the level of responsibility related to

  14. Regulation of hippocampal neurogenesis by systemic factors including stress, glucocorticoids, sleep, and inflammation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucassen, P.J.; Oomen, C.; van Dam, A.-M.; Czéh, B.; Gage, F.H.; Kempermann, G.; Song, H.

    2008-01-01

    This review summarizes and discusses the regulation of adult neurogenesis and hippocampal cellular plasticity by systemic factors. We focus on the role of stress, glucocorticoids, and related factors such as sleep deprivation and inflammation.

  15. Health Promotion Behavior of Chinese International Students in Korea Including Acculturation Factors: A Structural Equation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Jung; Yoo, Il Young

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain the health promotion behavior of Chinese international students in Korea using a structural equation model including acculturation factors. A survey using self-administered questionnaires was employed. Data were collected from 272 Chinese students who have resided in Korea for longer than 6 months. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The p value of final model is .31. The fitness parameters of the final model such as goodness of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, normed fit index, non-normed fit index, and comparative fit index were more than .95. Root mean square of residual and root mean square error of approximation also met the criteria. Self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturative stress and acculturation level had direct effects on health promotion behavior of the participants and the model explained 30.0% of variance. The Chinese students in Korea with higher self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturation level, and lower acculturative stress reported higher health promotion behavior. The findings can be applied to develop health promotion strategies for this population. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Pipe elbow stiffness coefficients including shear and bend flexibility factors for use in direct stiffness codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, R.F.

    1977-01-01

    Historically, developments of computer codes used for piping analysis were based upon the flexibility method of structural analysis. Because of the specialized techniques employed in this method, the codes handled systems composed of only piping elements. Over the past ten years, the direct stiffness method has gained great popularity because of its systematic solution procedure regardless of the type of structural elements composing the system. A great advantage is realized with a direct stiffness code that combines piping elements along with other structural elements such as beams, plates, and shells, in a single model. One common problem, however, has been the lack of an accurate pipe elbow element that would adequately represent the effects of transverse shear and bend flexibility factors. The purpose of the present paper is to present a systematic derivation of the required 12x12 stiffness matrix and load vectors for a three dimensional pipe elbow element which includes the effects of transverse shear and pipe bend flexibility according to the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section III. The results are presented analytically and as FORTRAN subroutines to be directly incorporated into existing direct stiffness codes. (Auth.)

  17. Pesticide exposure as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma including histopathological subgroup analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Mikael; Hardell, Lennart; Carlberg, Michael; Akerman, Måns

    2008-10-01

    We report a population based case-control study of exposure to pesticides as risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Male and female subjects aged 18-74 years living in Sweden were included during December 1, 1999, to April 30, 2002. Controls were selected from the national population registry. Exposure to different agents was assessed by questionnaire. In total 910 (91 %) cases and 1016 (92%) controls participated. Exposure to herbicides gave odds ratio (OR) 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.51. Regarding phenoxyacetic acids highest risk was calculated for MCPA; OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.27-6.22, all these cases had a latency period >10 years. Exposure to glyphosate gave OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.10-3.71 and with >10 years latency period OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.16-4.40. Insecticides overall gave OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.96-1.72 and impregnating agents OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.07-2.30. Results are also presented for different entities of NHL. In conclusion our study confirmed an association between exposure to phenoxyacetic acids and NHL and the association with glyphosate was considerably strengthened.

  18. Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myoung Su; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

    2018-01-01

    Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (Pclimatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

    2018-01-08

    This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

  20. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  1. Delaware School Climate Survey--Student: Its Factor Structure, Concurrent Validity, and Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bear, George G.; Gaskins, Clare; Blank, Jessica; Chen, Fang Fang

    2011-01-01

    The Delaware School Climate Survey-Student (DSCS-S) was developed to provide schools with a brief and psychometrically sound student survey for assessing school climate, particularly the dimensions of social support and structure. Confirmatory factor analyses, conducted on a sample of 11,780 students in 85 schools, showed that a bifactor model…

  2. The Relationship of Bureaucratic Structure to School Climate: An Exploratory Factor Analysis of Construct Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennon, Patricia A.

    2010-01-01

    This researcher examined the relationship of bureaucratic structure to school climate by means of an exploratory factor analysis of a measure of bureaucracy developed by Hoy and Sweetland (2000) and the four dimensional measure of climate developed by Hoy, Smith, and Sweetland (2002). Since there had been no other empirical studies whose authors…

  3. Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region--a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and

  4. Climate Classification is an Important Factor in ­Assessing Hospital Performance Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, M. R.; Parhi, P.; Gentine, P.; Tatonetti, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Context/Purpose: Climate is a known modulator of disease, but its impact on hospital performance metrics remains unstudied. Methods: We assess the relationship between Köppen-Geiger climate classification and hospital performance metrics, specifically 30-day mortality, as reported in Hospital Compare, and collected for the period July 2013 through June 2014 (7/1/2013 - 06/30/2014). A hospital-level multivariate linear regression analysis was performed while controlling for known socioeconomic factors to explore the relationship between all-cause mortality and climate. Hospital performance scores were obtained from 4,524 hospitals belonging to 15 distinct Köppen-Geiger climates and 2,373 unique counties. Results: Model results revealed that hospital performance metrics for mortality showed significant climate dependence (psocioeconomic factors. Interpretation: Currently, hospitals are reimbursed by Governmental agencies using 30-day mortality rates along with 30-day readmission rates. These metrics allow Government agencies to rank hospitals according to their `performance' along these metrics. Various socioeconomic factors are taken into consideration when determining individual hospitals performance. However, no climate-based adjustment is made within the existing framework. Our results indicate that climate-based variability in 30-day mortality rates does exist even after socioeconomic confounder adjustment. Use of standardized high-level climate classification systems (such as Koppen-Geiger) would be useful to incorporate in future metrics. Conclusion: Climate is a significant factor in evaluating hospital 30-day mortality rates. These results demonstrate that climate classification is an important factor when comparing hospital performance across the United States.

  5. Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasa Nie

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. Methods: All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes’ definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. Results: The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58 for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42 for a propensity score-matched set. Conclusion: In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI.

  6. Situational effects of the school factors included in the dynamic model of educational effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Creerners, Bert; Kyriakides, Leonidas

    We present results of a longitudinal study in which 50 schools, 113 classes and 2,542 Cypriot primary students participated. We tested the validity of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness and especially its assumption that the impact of school factors depends on the current situation of

  7. Consensus achievement of leadership, organisational and individual factors that influence safety climate: Implications for nursing management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Shelly A; Jones, Jacqueline; Verran, Joyce A

    2018-01-01

    To validate a framework of factors that influence the relationship of transformational leadership and safety climate, and to enable testing of safety chain factors by generating hypotheses regarding their mediating and moderating effects. Understanding the patient safety chain and mechanisms by which leaders affect a strong climate of safety is essential to transformational leadership practice, education, and research. A systematic review of leadership and safety literature was used to develop an organising framework of factors proposed to influence the climate of safety. A panel of 25 international experts in leadership and safety engaged a three-round modified Delphi study with Likert-scored surveys. Eighty per cent of participating experts from six countries were retained to the final survey round. Consensus (>66% agreement) was achieved on 40 factors believed to influence safety climate in the acute care setting. Consensus regarding specific factors that play important roles in an organisation's climate of safety can be reached. Generally, the demonstration of leadership commitment to safety is key to cultivating a culture of patient safety. Transformational nurse leaders should consider and employ all three categories of factors in daily leadership activities and decision-making to drive a strong climate of patient safety. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The dyad palindromic glutathione transferase P enhancer binds multiple factors including AP1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diccianni, M B; Imagawa, M; Muramatsu, M

    1992-10-11

    Glutathione Transferase P (GST-P) gene expression is dominantly regulated by an upstream enhancer (GPEI) consisting of a dyad of palindromically oriented imperfect TPA (12-O-tetradecanoyl-phorbol-13-acetate)-responsive elements (TRE). GPEI is active in AP1-lacking F9 cells as well in AP1-containing HeLa cells. Despite GPEI's similarity to a TRE, c-jun co-transfection has only a minimal effect on transactivation. Antisense c-jun and c-fos co-transfection experiments further demonstrate the lack of a role for AP1 in GPEI mediated trans-activation in F9 cells, although endogenously present AP1 can influence GPEI in HeLa cells. Co-transfection of delta fosB with c-jun, which forms an inactive c-Jun/delta FosB heterodimer that binds TRE sequences, inhibits GPEI-mediated transcription in AP1-lacking F9 cells as well as AP1-containing HeLa cells. These data suggest novel factor(s) other than AP1 are influencing GPEI. Binding studies reveal multiple nucleoproteins bind to GPEI. These factors are likely responsible for the high level of GPEI-mediated transcription observed in the absence of AP1 and during hepatocarcinogenesis.

  9. Modelling of safety barriers including human and organisational factors to improve process safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Thommesen, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    It is believed that traditional safety management needs to be improved on the aspect of preparedness for coping with expected and unexpected deviations, avoiding an overly optimistic reliance on safety systems. Remembering recent major accidents, such as the Deep Water Horizon, the Texas City....... A valuable approach is the inclusion of human and organisational factors into the simulation of the reliability of the technical system using event trees and fault trees and the concept of safety barriers. This has been demonstrated e.g. in the former European research project ARAMIS (Accidental Risk...

  10. Etude Climat no. 34 'Including international aviation in the EU ETS: a first step towards a global scheme'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberola, Emilie; Solier, Boris

    2012-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: CO 2 emissions from international aviation, which accounted for 2% of global emissions in 2009, are not currently capped by any international agreement. The inclusion of the aviation sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from January 1 2012 onwards represents a first step towards the implementation of emission reduction regulations based on an emissions trading scheme After the gradual extension of the scope of the EU ETS to new countries since 2005, the European Commission is now assimilating around 5,400 airlines that operate in Europe, two-thirds of which are non-European, into the EU ETS to join the energy generation and manufacturing industries. This European Union's decision assigns quantified CO 2 emission reduction targets to airlines: a 3% reduction in 2012 compared with average CO 2 emissions for the sector between 2004 and 2006, then a 5% reduction between 2013 and 2020. In the short term, the inclusion of the aviation sector in the EU ETS should have an impact on the scheme. Indeed, the aviation sector is expected to represent a new source of demand for allowances. Based on the assumption of an average 2.5% increase in annual emissions between 2012 and 2014, and then of an increase of 2% over the period between 2015 and 2020, airlines would create a shortfall of 382 MtCO 2 between 2012 and 2020. The limited use of Kyoto credits to help them comply offers a maximum import potential of almost 65 MtCO 2 between 2012 and 2020. This inclusion is a test of the EU's proactive policy, which involves encouraging other countries to define their own climate policy, without breaching international law,. The potential exemption of airline operators from emitter countries that introduce equivalent regulations would be a success for the European policy. For the time being, the reaction of some

  11. SUBSTANTIATION OF THE COST OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION INCLUDING THE FACTOR OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF TERRITORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAIATS Yi. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement. For planning and organization of urban construction is necessary to analyze the use of areas. Territorial resources of the city, being used for construction and other urban purposes, consists of plots of land: disposable, reserved and undeveloped in previous years of construction in progress; residential districts and blocks of obsolete housing fund; industrial and municipal and warehouse enterprises being used irrationally or stopped to work; the defence department, where the amortized warehouses and other main funds are that are not used by purpose; agricultural enterprises where the obsolete industrial funds, haying, nurseries, greenhouses. The number of free areas suitable for future urban development is extremely limited. However a considerable part of the territories of almost all functional zones is used inefficiently. Purpose. Formalization of a factor of investment attractiveness of territories for the further identification and research of the connection between it and the cost of housing construction is necessary. Conclusion. The identification of regularities of influence of the factor of investment attractiveness of territories on the cost of construction of high-rise buildings allow to obtain a quantitative estimate of this effect and can be used in the development of the methodology of substantiation of the expediency and effectiveness of the implementation of highrise construction projects, based on organizational and technological aspects.

  12. Factors predicting team climate, and its relationship with quality of care in general practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eccles Martin P

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Quality of care in general practice may be affected by the team climate perceived by its health and non-health professionals. Better team working is thought to lead to higher effectiveness and quality of care. However, there is limited evidence available on what affects team functioning and its relationship with quality of care in general practice. This study aimed to explore individual and practice factors that were associated with team climate, and to explore the relationship between team climate and quality of care. Methods Cross sectional survey of a convenience sample of 14 general practices and their staff in South Tyneside in the northeast of England. Team climate was measured using the short version of Team Climate Inventory (TCI questionnaire. Practice characteristics were collected during a structured interview with practice managers. Quality was measured using the practice Quality and Outcome Framework (QOF scores. Results General Practitioners (GP had a higher team climate scores compared to other professionals. Individual's gender and tenure, and number of GPs in the practice were significantly predictors of a higher team climate. There was no significant correlation between mean practice team climate scores (or subscales with QOF scores. Conclusion The absence of a relationship between a measure of team climate and quality of care in this exploratory study may be due to a number of methodological problems. Further research is required to explore how to best measure team functioning and its relationship with quality of care.

  13. Factors predicting team climate, and its relationship with quality of care in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Teik T; Eccles, Martin P; Steen, Nick

    2009-08-04

    Quality of care in general practice may be affected by the team climate perceived by its health and non-health professionals. Better team working is thought to lead to higher effectiveness and quality of care. However, there is limited evidence available on what affects team functioning and its relationship with quality of care in general practice. This study aimed to explore individual and practice factors that were associated with team climate, and to explore the relationship between team climate and quality of care. Cross sectional survey of a convenience sample of 14 general practices and their staff in South Tyneside in the northeast of England. Team climate was measured using the short version of Team Climate Inventory (TCI) questionnaire. Practice characteristics were collected during a structured interview with practice managers. Quality was measured using the practice Quality and Outcome Framework (QOF) scores. General Practitioners (GP) had a higher team climate scores compared to other professionals. Individual's gender and tenure, and number of GPs in the practice were significantly predictors of a higher team climate. There was no significant correlation between mean practice team climate scores (or subscales) with QOF scores. The absence of a relationship between a measure of team climate and quality of care in this exploratory study may be due to a number of methodological problems. Further research is required to explore how to best measure team functioning and its relationship with quality of care.

  14. De-novo discovery of differentially abundant transcription factor binding sites including their positional preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilwagen, Jens; Grau, Jan; Paponov, Ivan A; Posch, Stefan; Strickert, Marc; Grosse, Ivo

    2011-02-10

    Transcription factors are a main component of gene regulation as they activate or repress gene expression by binding to specific binding sites in promoters. The de-novo discovery of transcription factor binding sites in target regions obtained by wet-lab experiments is a challenging problem in computational biology, which has not been fully solved yet. Here, we present a de-novo motif discovery tool called Dispom for finding differentially abundant transcription factor binding sites that models existing positional preferences of binding sites and adjusts the length of the motif in the learning process. Evaluating Dispom, we find that its prediction performance is superior to existing tools for de-novo motif discovery for 18 benchmark data sets with planted binding sites, and for a metazoan compendium based on experimental data from micro-array, ChIP-chip, ChIP-DSL, and DamID as well as Gene Ontology data. Finally, we apply Dispom to find binding sites differentially abundant in promoters of auxin-responsive genes extracted from Arabidopsis thaliana microarray data, and we find a motif that can be interpreted as a refined auxin responsive element predominately positioned in the 250-bp region upstream of the transcription start site. Using an independent data set of auxin-responsive genes, we find in genome-wide predictions that the refined motif is more specific for auxin-responsive genes than the canonical auxin-responsive element. In general, Dispom can be used to find differentially abundant motifs in sequences of any origin. However, the positional distribution learned by Dispom is especially beneficial if all sequences are aligned to some anchor point like the transcription start site in case of promoter sequences. We demonstrate that the combination of searching for differentially abundant motifs and inferring a position distribution from the data is beneficial for de-novo motif discovery. Hence, we make the tool freely available as a component of the open

  15. Bioclim Deliverable D4/5: global climatic characteristics, including vegetation and seasonal cycles over Europe, for snapshots over the next 200,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the BIOCLIM project is to develop and present techniques that can be used to develop self-consistent patterns of possible future climate changes over the next million years (climate scenarios), and to demonstrate how these climate scenarios can be used in assessments of the long-term safety of nuclear waste repository sites. Within the project, two strategies are implemented to predict climate change. The first is the hierarchical strategy, in which a hierarchy of climate models is used to investigate the evolution of climate over the period of interest. These models vary from very simple 2-D and threshold models, which simulate interactions between only a few aspects of the earth system, through general circulation models (GCMs) and vegetation models, which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere, to regional models, which focus in particular on the European region and the specific areas of interest. The second strategy is the integrated strategy, in which intermediate complexity climate models are developed, and used to consecutively simulate the development of the earth system over many millennia. Although these models are relatively simple compared to a GCM, they are more advanced than 2D models, and do include physical descriptions of the biosphere, cryo-sphere, atmosphere and ocean. This deliverable, D4/5, focuses on the hierarchical strategy, and in particular the GCM and vegetation model simulation of possible future climates. Deliverable D3 documented the first step in this strategy. The Louvain-la-Neuve 2-D climate model (LLN-2D) was used to estimate (among other variables) annual mean temperatures and ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere over the next 1 million years. It was driven by the calculated evolution of orbital parameters, and plausible scenarios of CO 2 concentration. From the results, 3 future time periods within the next 200,000 years were identified as being extreme, that is

  16. Combined climate factors alleviate changes in gross soil nitrogen dynamics in heathlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjorsne, Anna-Karin; Rutting, Tobias; Ambus, Per

    2014-01-01

    of exposure to three climate change factors, i.e. warming, elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) and summer drought, applied both in isolation and in combination. By conducting laboratory N-15 tracing experiments we show that warming increased both gross N mineralization and nitrification rates. In contrast, gross......The ongoing climate change affects biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, but the magnitude and direction of this impact is yet unclear. To shed further light on the climate change impact, we investigated alterations in the soil nitrogen (N) cycling in a Danish heathland after 5 years......CO(2). In the full treatment combination, simulating the predicted climate for the year 2075, gross N transformations were only moderately affected compared to control, suggesting a minor alteration of the N cycle due to climate change. Overall, our study confirms the importance of multifactorial field...

  17. Human factors design of nuclear power plant control rooms including computer-based operator aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastl, W.; Felkel, L.; Becker, G.; Bohr, E.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific handling of human factors problems in control rooms began around 1970 on the basis of safety considerations. Some recent research work deals with the development of computerized systems like plant balance calculation, safety parameter display, alarm reduction and disturbance analysis. For disturbance analysis purposes it is necessary to homogenize the information presented to the operator according to the actual plant situation in order to supply the operator with the information he most urgently needs at the time. Different approaches for solving this problem are discussed, and an overview is given on what is being done. Other research projects concentrate on the detailed analysis of operators' diagnosis strategies in unexpected situations, in order to obtain a better understanding of their mental processes and the influences upon them when such situations occur. This project involves the use of a simulator and sophisticated recording and analysis methods. Control rooms are currently designed with the aid of mock-ups. They enable operators to contribute their experience to the optimization of the arrangement of displays and controls. Modern control rooms are characterized by increasing use of process computers and CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) displays. A general concept for the integration of the new computerized system and the conventional control panels is needed. The technical changes modify operators' tasks, and future ergonomic work in nuclear plants will need to consider the re-allocation of function between man and machine, the incorporation of task changes in training programmes, and the optimal design of information presentation using CRTs. Aspects of developments in control room design are detailed, typical research results are dealt with, and a brief forecast of the ergonomic contribution to be made in the Federal Republic of Germany is given

  18. Impact on Organizational Climate trough Organizational Culture factors. Case Study of Latvia and Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juris Iljins

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of organizational culture on organizational climate in process of change. For solving this problem, it is necessary to identify the main factors of organizational culture in the change process. After exploring the impact of organizational culture on organizational climate through distinguished culture’s factors, article examines how changes can be processed in different cultural environments. Methodology: The research design is based on Yin (1994 methodology and consists of two main stages: data analysis and validation for case study and case study’s methodology according to Yin (1994 (four steps: design the case, conduct the case, analyse the case evidence and develop conclusions. In the first stage an expert evaluation method was used to investigate the significance of organizational culture factors’ impact on organizational climate. Different factors of organizational climate were explored in the paper. To affirm the results triangulation method was applied. To verify the results of the research mathematical calculations and case study were used. Within the research the most significant factors were stressed. During the second stage, the case study was carried out to validate the research results in specific companies. Comparison between medium-size companies was made. It is important, that in case Latvian company (A capital holders are Latvian entrepreneurs and capital holders of Lithuanian company (B are international. Scientific aim: To distinguish organizational culture’s factors that have an impact on organizational climate’s change. Findings: The results of the research confirmed that during the period of changes organizational culture has an impact on organizational climate through specific factors. Theoretical model how change organizational culture impacts organizational climate is developed. Research showed that stability, job satisfaction, team

  19. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  20. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  1. OBLIMAP 2.0: a fast climate model-ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2016-11-01

    This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM) and an ice sheet model (ISM) in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfaces of the GCM and ISM grid differ, both grids may be irregularly spaced and the ratio of the grids is allowed to differ largely. OBLIMAP's stand-alone version is able to map data sets that differ in various aspects on the same ISM grid. Each grid may either coincide with the surface of a sphere, an ellipsoid or a flat plane, while the grid types might differ. Re-projection of, for example, ISM data sets is also facilitated. This is demonstrated by relevant applications concerning the major ice caps. As the stand-alone version also applies to the reverse mapping direction, it can be used as an offline coupler. Furthermore, OBLIMAP 2.0 is an embeddable GCM-ISM coupler, suited for high-frequency online coupled experiments. A new fast scan method is presented for structured grids as an alternative for the former time-consuming grid search strategy, realising a performance gain of several orders of magnitude and enabling the mapping of high-resolution data sets with a much larger number of grid nodes. Further, a highly flexible masked mapping option is added. The limitation of the fast scan method with respect to unstructured and adaptive grids is discussed together with a possible future parallel Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation.

  2. OBLIMAP 2.0: a fast climate model–ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Reerink

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM and an ice sheet model (ISM in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfaces of the GCM and ISM grid differ, both grids may be irregularly spaced and the ratio of the grids is allowed to differ largely. OBLIMAP's stand-alone version is able to map data sets that differ in various aspects on the same ISM grid. Each grid may either coincide with the surface of a sphere, an ellipsoid or a flat plane, while the grid types might differ. Re-projection of, for example, ISM data sets is also facilitated. This is demonstrated by relevant applications concerning the major ice caps. As the stand-alone version also applies to the reverse mapping direction, it can be used as an offline coupler. Furthermore, OBLIMAP 2.0 is an embeddable GCM–ISM coupler, suited for high-frequency online coupled experiments. A new fast scan method is presented for structured grids as an alternative for the former time-consuming grid search strategy, realising a performance gain of several orders of magnitude and enabling the mapping of high-resolution data sets with a much larger number of grid nodes. Further, a highly flexible masked mapping option is added. The limitation of the fast scan method with respect to unstructured and adaptive grids is discussed together with a possible future parallel Message Passing Interface (MPI implementation.

  3. Factors predicting team climate, and its relationship with quality of care in general practice

    OpenAIRE

    Goh, Teik T; Eccles, Martin P; Steen, Nick

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Quality of care in general practice may be affected by the team climate perceived by its health and non-health professionals. Better team working is thought to lead to higher effectiveness and quality of care. However, there is limited evidence available on what affects team functioning and its relationship with quality of care in general practice. This study aimed to explore individual and practice factors that were associated with team climate, and to explore the relatio...

  4. Multilevel Factor Structure and Concurrent Validity of the Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Francis L; Cornell, Dewey G; Konold, Timothy; Meyer, Joseph P; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin K; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan D

    2015-12-01

    School climate is well recognized as an important influence on student behavior and adjustment to school, but there is a need for theory-guided measures that make use of teacher perspectives. Authoritative school climate theory hypothesizes that a positive school climate is characterized by high levels of disciplinary structure and student support. A teacher version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey (ASCS) was administered to a statewide sample of 9099 7th- and 8th-grade teachers from 366 schools. The study used exploratory and multilevel confirmatory factor analyses (MCFA) that accounted for the nested data structure and allowed for the modeling of the factor structures at 2 levels. Multilevel confirmatory factor analyses conducted on both an exploratory (N = 4422) and a confirmatory sample (N = 4677) showed good support for the factor structures investigated. Factor correlations at 2 levels indicated that schools with greater levels of disciplinary structure and student support had higher student engagement, less teasing and bullying, and lower student aggression toward teachers. The teacher version of the ASCS can be used to assess 2 key domains of school climate and associated measures of student engagement and aggression toward peers and teachers. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  5. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000

  6. Western land managers will need all available tools for adapting to climate change, including grazing: a critique of Beschta et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svejcar, Tony; Boyd, Chad; Davies, Kirk; Madsen, Matthew; Bates, Jon; Sheley, Roger; Marlow, Clayton; Bohnert, David; Borman, Mike; Mata-Gonzàlez, Ricardo; Buckhouse, John; Stringham, Tamzen; Perryman, Barry; Swanson, Sherman; Tate, Kenneth; George, Mel; Ruyle, George; Roundy, Bruce; Call, Chris; Jensen, Kevin; Launchbaugh, Karen; Gearhart, Amanda; Vermeire, Lance; Tanaka, John; Derner, Justin; Frasier, Gary; Havstad, Kris

    2014-06-01

    In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474-491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20-50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.

  7. Relative importance of management, meteorological and environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in a temperate climate zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennema, S C; Ducheyne, E; Vercruysse, J; Claerebout, E; Hendrickx, G; Charlier, J

    2011-02-01

    Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic

  8. Climatic fluctuations as a significant contributing factor for volcanic collapses. Evidence from Mexico during the Late Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Bernal-Uruchurtu, J. P.; Carrasco, G.

    2013-05-01

    Climate oscillations have significantly contributed to the planet's evolution, including volcanic activity. Major glaciations have been considered not only as a triggering mechanism for large magmatic eruptions but also inducing volcano instability. Generally, volcano instability can be inferred from detailed volcanological and structural studies of a volcano and its associated depositional sequence, but the triggering mechanism has been always difficult to infer. In this paper, we present evidence of how climatic variations during the Late Pleistocene could have forced sector collapses of the main Mexican stratovolcanoes and enhanced the mobility of associated massive flows inducing the transformation of debris avalanche into debris flows. In particular, the climatic record based on atmospheric moisture content from robustly dated lake record from Guatemala and a U/Th dated speleothem from New Mexico are used here as indicators of summer and winter precipitation. Depositional sequences associated with Late Pleistocene sector collapses of Volcan de Colima, Nevado de Toluca, Citlaltepetl (Pico de Orizaba) and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are here analyzed. Comparing the timing of the event with the climatic record, a combination of summer and/or winter pluvial conditions could have forced and triggered the failure of already unstable volcanoes, even during glacier advances (as for the Citlaltepetl event). Independently of the main cause of the volcano instability (magmatic or tectonic) it is important to highlight that the climatic factor played an important role in enhancing the volcano instability and promoted the lateral transformation of debris avalanches, which under dry conditions would have affected more limited areas.

  9. Cave visitation by temperate zone bats: effects of climatic factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Berková, Hana; Zukal, Jan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 280, č. 4 (2010), s. 387-395 ISSN 0952-8369 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/01/1555; GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : automatic registration * bats * flight activity * hibernaculum * seasonal changes Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.787, year: 2010

  10. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  11. Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

    OpenAIRE

    Md Mahmudul Haque; Prasanna Egodawatta; Ataur Rahman; Ashantha Goonetilleke

    2015-01-01

    Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The resul...

  12. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; hide

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  13. The effect on climate change impacts for building products when including the timing of greenhouse gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard D Bergman

    2012-01-01

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap infrared radiation emitting from the Earth’s surface to generate the “greenhouse effect” thus keeping the planet warm. Many natural activities including rotting vegetation emit GHGs such as carbon dioxide to produce this natural affect. However, in the last 200 years or so, human activity has increased the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs...

  14. Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

  15. Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: −0.01%–0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, −0.57% and −4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community. PMID:26891307

  16. Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinseob Kim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: −0.01%–0.50%, and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30. Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, −0.57% and −4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%. There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

  17. Effect of climatic factors affecting saffron using analytic hierarchy process(AHP; (Case Study Roshtkhar Region, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeid Kamyabi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The present paper aimed to determine the criteria for understanding climate and ranking factors influencing saffron and assess its impact on Roshtkhoar city of Khorasan Razavi province. The city of Roshtkhar has potential for increasing saffron cultivation; therefore, the main hypothesis during the research was, which climatic factors had the most influence on the cultivation of saffron in the city Roshtkhar. The research methodology was based on a period of ten years cross-sectional data collected from meteorological stations in the studied area. In this study, with taking into account of climatic factors affecting the cultivation of saffron, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to prioritize rural and regional municipalities Roshtkhar cultivated land. Research process included data collection, analysis, statistical analysis, data entry software Expert choice, clustering and selection criteria, and integrating information. The results showed that, among environmental factors, precipitation index (0.281 and temperature coefficient (0.137 had the greatest impact in saffron cultivation. Water resources and evaporation of water had the lowest score in the survey accounted. In the municipalities of the city, Hossein-Abad districts had favorable conditions for growing saffron.

  18. Dengue vector dynamics (Aedes aegypti influenced by climate and social factors in Ecuador: implications for targeted control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Stewart Ibarra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011, conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in

  19. Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqian Zhao

    Full Text Available Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0-4, 0-9 and 0-6 months, respectively; (ii on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in

  20. Climatic factors, genetic structure and phenotypic variation in English yew (Taxus baccata L.)

    OpenAIRE

    Mayol, Maria; Berganzo, Elisa; Burgarella, Concetta; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Grivet, Delphine; Vendramin, Giovanni G.; Vincenot, Lucie; Riba, Miquel

    2018-01-01

    Influence of climatic factors on genetic structure and phenotypic variation in English yew (Taxus baccata L.) Conference "Adapting to global change in the Mediterranean hotspot" (Seville, 18-20 September 2013) Mediterranean forests constitute long-term reservoirs of biodiversity and adaptive potential. As compared with their central or northern European counterparts, Mediterranean forests are characterized by highly heterogeneous and fragmented environments, ...

  1. The Study of Factor Structure and Reliability of an Abbreviated School Climate Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cody; Liu, Ying; Berkowitz, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    The concept of school climate has been an important variable in research on quality of school life and student learning. One of the challenges in such a research effort is to develop instruments that could effectively and efficiently measure the construct. The purpose of the current study was to examine the factor structure and reliability of an…

  2. [Preliminary study on the effect of climate factors on pollen fertility in Platycodon grandiflorum].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Feng-hua; Zhang, Lei; Wei, Jian-he

    2011-06-01

    To have a better utilization of male sterile lines in heterozygotic breeding of Platycodon grandiflorum and provide theoretical basis for Platycodon grandiflorum hyboridization. The pollen viability was detected by the means of aceto carmine dyeing, and the correlation analysis between climate factors of each anther development stage and pollen viability was estimated by Pearson coefficients. Pollen viability variation range of male-sterile line GP1BC1-12 was 0% - 27%. That of male-sterile line GP12BC4-10 and chifeng germplasm was respectively 1.3% - 17.9% and 75.9% - 98.5%. Further linear regression analysis between climate factors of each anther development stage and pollen viability indicated that the degree of sensitivity varied with different germplasm of Platycodon grandiflorum. Among three germplasm, male sterile line GP12BC4-10 was the most stable one to the climate factors, and the male-sterile line GP1BC1-12 was the most sensitive one. Temperature and solar irradiation are the most important climate factors to affect pollen viability in Platycodon grandflorum, and microspore mother cells stage (MMC) is its sensetive stage.

  3. Perception of Transfer Climate Factors in the Macro and Micro Organizational Work Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diggs, Byron Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    This qualitative study was designed to provide insight on the perceived transfer climate factors in the macro and micro organizational work environment that may influence an employee's willingness to transfer what was learned in a training program to the job. More specifically, the purpose of the study was to delineate descriptive patterns and…

  4. Geographical Information System (GIS) for Relationship Between Dengue Disease and Climatic Factors at Cheras, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Azman Azid; Hafizan Juahir; Kamaruzzaman Yunus; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohammad Azizi Amran; Mohamad Romizan Osman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Muhammad Barzani Gasim; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin

    2015-01-01

    The Geographical Information System (GIS) was utilized to generate dengue distribution cases and its correlation to the climatic factors in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The data were provided by Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur (DBKL). The data was integrated with Kuala Lumpur map to graphically present information about the areas which been hit by the dengue outbreak through a graphic display. The analysis using focused on overlay, buffer creating, and query builder. The statistical analysis such as linear regression is undertaken to show the correlation between dengue diseases with the climatic factors that is rainfall, temperature and relative humidity for the year 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The study found that there is no correlation between disease incidence and total rainfall (R"2=0.057). Thus, it can be concluded that the climatic factors were not contributed to the dengue cases. Through this research, highly expect that the dengue distribution map had been developed and can be used by the authorities to analyzing the dengue disease pattern by related with the climatic factors. (author)

  5. Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jee, Hee-Jung; Cho, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yu Jin; Choi, Nari; An, Hyonggin; Lee, Heon-Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea. Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM. Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m 2 after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P Solar radiation has a significant linear relationship with suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, M. O. P.

    2017-12-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

  7. Factors Influencing Arab Nursing Students' Attitudes toward Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability and their Inclusion in Nursing Curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Jonas Preposi; Felicilda-Reynaldo, Rhea Faye D; Alshammari, Farhan; Alquwez, Nahed; Alicante, Jerico G; Obaid, Khamees B; Rady, Hanan Ebrahim Abd El Aziz; Qtait, Mohammad; Silang, John Paul Ben T

    2018-05-17

    To assess the factors influencing the attitudes of Bachelor of Science in Nursing students toward climate change and environmental sustainability and the inclusion of these concepts in the nursing curricula of four Arab countries. A convenience sample of 1,059 students from four Arab countries was surveyed using the Environmental Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2 (SANS-2) questionnaire in this descriptive-comparative study. The majority of the respondents exhibited positive attitudes toward the five items of SANS-2, with "Environmental sustainability is an important issue for nursing" receiving the lowest mean score and "Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum" receiving the highest mean score. Saudi students had more positive attitudes toward environmental sustainability in health care compared with students from Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories. Country of residence, type of community, and knowledge about environmental issues and their impact on health in any nursing course were significant factors that influenced attitudes toward environmental sustainability. The inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in nursing curricula in the Arab region was emphasized by the findings. Including environmental sustainability practices in nursing education will help student nurses develop critical thinking and skills in the adaptive delivery of health care, especially when resources are scarce. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Safety climate in university and college laboratories: impact of organizational and individual factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tsung-Chih; Liu, Chi-Wei; Lu, Mu-Chen

    2007-01-01

    Universities and colleges serve to be institutions of education excellence; however, problems in the areas of occupational safety may undermine such goals. Occupational safety must be the concern of every employee in the organization, regardless of job position. Safety climate surveys have been suggested as important tools for measuring the effectiveness and improvement direction of safety programs. Thus, this study aims to investigate the influence of organizational and individual factors on safety climate in university and college laboratories. Employees at 100 universities and colleges in Taiwan were mailed a self-administered questionnaire survey; the response rate was 78%. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that organizational category of ownership, the presence of a safety manager and safety committee, gender, age, title, accident experience, and safety training significantly affected the climate. Among them, accident experience and safety training affected the climate with practical significance. The authors recommend that managers should address important factors affecting safety issues and then create a positive climate by enforcing continuous improvements.

  9. Influence of climate factors on emergency visits for childhood asthma attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Mitsuo; Fukuda, Taiki; Shimizu, Tetsuya; Watanabe, Shou; Watanuki, Satoshi; Eto, Yoshikatsu; Urashima, Mitsuyoshi

    2004-02-01

    Asthma attack shows strong seasonality. The purpose of the present study was to quantify the contribution of climate variables and other seasonal factors on the incidence of emergency visits for childhood asthma in Tokyo, Japan. The number of children who visited emergency rooms at Jikei university hospitals in Tokyo during 1998-2002 (5559 visits) was retrieved retrospectively from files from the Department of Pediatrics, and compared with 45 climate parameters from the Meteorological Agency using multiple regression models with a stepwise backward elimination approach. The number of visits (3.7 +/- 3.1) per night increased significantly when climate conditions showed a rapid decrease from higher barometric pressure, from higher air temperature and from higher humidity, as well as lower wind speed. The best-fit model demonstrated that a 22% variation in the number of visits was explained by a linear relationship with 12 climate variables, which increased to 36% after adjusting for calendar month and day of the week. Moreover, when the number of asthma visits was cut off at nine per night, the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89-0.94) in the multiple logistic regression model using the same variables. These results suggest that these models might quantify contributions of specific climate conditions and other seasonal factors on the number of emergency visits per night for childhood asthma attack in Tokyo, Japan.

  10. Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marek, Michal V.; Janouš, Dalibor; Taufarová, Klára; Havránková, Kateřina; Pavelka, Marian; Kaplan, Věroslav; Marková, I.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 159, č. 5 (2011), s. 1035-1039 ISSN 0269-7491 R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/108/07; GA MŠk 2B06068 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : carbon fluxes * net ecosystem exchange * spruce forest * beech forest * Grassland * agroecosystem * wetland * climate factors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.746, year: 2011

  11. Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. National Climate Policies: Aiming at the Factor 4 Target by 2050?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godard, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    The paper considers how the governments of midsize developed countries could define national strategies to control greenhouse gas emissions, assuming that such strategies are the product of cognitive and ethical choices relating to global climate scenarios and the rule for allocating shares of expected global climate damage to individual States. After evaluating the carbon value linked to each cognitive-ethical configuration, I identify the configurations that justify the target of dividing national emissions by 4 between 1990 and 2050 - a goal known as 'Factor 4'. Lastly, I examine the resulting constraints on the shape of the control trajectory leading to that target

  13. Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyin Zhang

    Full Text Available Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P 2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1% than angiosperms (4.8% but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2% and deciduous (6.1% species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6% had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%, and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01. We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

  14. The Benefits of Including Clinical Factors in Rectal Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling After Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Defraene, Gilles; Van den Bergh, Laura; Al-Mamgani, Abrahim; Haustermans, Karin; Heemsbergen, Wilma; Van den Heuvel, Frank; Lebesque, Joos V.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To study the impact of clinical predisposing factors on rectal normal tissue complication probability modeling using the updated results of the Dutch prostate dose-escalation trial. Methods and Materials: Toxicity data of 512 patients (conformally treated to 68 Gy [n = 284] and 78 Gy [n = 228]) with complete follow-up at 3 years after radiotherapy were studied. Scored end points were rectal bleeding, high stool frequency, and fecal incontinence. Two traditional dose-based models (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and Relative Seriality (RS) and a logistic model were fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. Furthermore, these model fits were improved by including the most significant clinical factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminating ability of all fits. Results: Including clinical factors significantly increased the predictive power of the models for all end points. In the optimal LKB, RS, and logistic models for rectal bleeding and fecal incontinence, the first significant (p = 0.011–0.013) clinical factor was “previous abdominal surgery.” As second significant (p = 0.012–0.016) factor, “cardiac history” was included in all three rectal bleeding fits, whereas including “diabetes” was significant (p = 0.039–0.048) in fecal incontinence modeling but only in the LKB and logistic models. High stool frequency fits only benefitted significantly (p = 0.003–0.006) from the inclusion of the baseline toxicity score. For all models rectal bleeding fits had the highest AUC (0.77) where it was 0.63 and 0.68 for high stool frequency and fecal incontinence, respectively. LKB and logistic model fits resulted in similar values for the volume parameter. The steepness parameter was somewhat higher in the logistic model, also resulting in a slightly lower D 50 . Anal wall DVHs were used for fecal incontinence, whereas anorectal wall dose best described the other two endpoints. Conclusions

  15. The Benefits of Including Clinical Factors in Rectal Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling After Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Defraene, Gilles, E-mail: gilles.defraene@uzleuven.be [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Van den Bergh, Laura [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Al-Mamgani, Abrahim [Department of Radiation Oncology, Erasmus Medical Center - Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Haustermans, Karin [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Heemsbergen, Wilma [Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Heuvel, Frank [Radiation Oncology Department, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Lebesque, Joos V. [Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To study the impact of clinical predisposing factors on rectal normal tissue complication probability modeling using the updated results of the Dutch prostate dose-escalation trial. Methods and Materials: Toxicity data of 512 patients (conformally treated to 68 Gy [n = 284] and 78 Gy [n = 228]) with complete follow-up at 3 years after radiotherapy were studied. Scored end points were rectal bleeding, high stool frequency, and fecal incontinence. Two traditional dose-based models (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and Relative Seriality (RS) and a logistic model were fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. Furthermore, these model fits were improved by including the most significant clinical factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminating ability of all fits. Results: Including clinical factors significantly increased the predictive power of the models for all end points. In the optimal LKB, RS, and logistic models for rectal bleeding and fecal incontinence, the first significant (p = 0.011-0.013) clinical factor was 'previous abdominal surgery.' As second significant (p = 0.012-0.016) factor, 'cardiac history' was included in all three rectal bleeding fits, whereas including 'diabetes' was significant (p = 0.039-0.048) in fecal incontinence modeling but only in the LKB and logistic models. High stool frequency fits only benefitted significantly (p = 0.003-0.006) from the inclusion of the baseline toxicity score. For all models rectal bleeding fits had the highest AUC (0.77) where it was 0.63 and 0.68 for high stool frequency and fecal incontinence, respectively. LKB and logistic model fits resulted in similar values for the volume parameter. The steepness parameter was somewhat higher in the logistic model, also resulting in a slightly lower D{sub 50}. Anal wall DVHs were used for fecal incontinence, whereas anorectal wall dose best described the other two endpoints

  16. Nutrient Enrichment Mediates the Relationships of Soil Microbial Respiration with Climatic Factors in an Alpine Meadow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Zong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of nutrient additions on soil microbial respiration (Rm and its contribution to soil respiration (Rs are of great importance for accurate assessment ecosystem carbon (C flux. Nitrogen (N addition either alone (coded as LN and HN or in combination with phosphorus (P (coded as LN + P and HN + P were manipulated in a semiarid alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau since 2008. Either LN or HN did not affect Rm, while LN + P enhanced Rm during peak growing periods, but HN + P did not affect Rm. Nutrient addition also significantly affected Rm/Rs, and the correlations of Rm/Rs with climatic factors varied with years. Soil water content (Sw was the main factor controlling the variations of Rm/Rs. During the years with large rainfall variations, Rm/Rs was negatively correlated with Sw, while, in years with even rainfall, Rm/Rs was positively correlated with Sw. Meanwhile, in N + P treatments the controlling effects of climatic factors on Rm/Rs were more significant than those in CK. Our results indicate that the sensitivity of soil microbes to climatic factors is regulated by nutrient enrichment. The divergent effects of Sw on Rm/Rs suggest that precipitation distribution patterns are key factors controlling soil microbial activities and ecosystem C fluxes in semiarid alpine meadow ecosystems.

  17. Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R; Dubayah, Ralph O

    2017-09-01

    Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr -1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing

  18. Ownership type and team climate in elderly care facilities: the moderating effect of stress factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Kouvonen, Anne; Noro, Anja; Finne-Soveri, Harriet; Sinervo, Timo

    2012-03-01

    This paper is a report of a study examining the association between ownership type and perceived team climate among older people care staff. In addition, we examined whether work stress factors (time pressure, resident-related stress, role conflicts and role ambiguity) mediated or moderated the above mentioned association. There has been a trend towards contracting out in older people care facilities in Finland and the number of private for-profit firms has increased. Studies suggest that there may be differences in employee well-being and quality of care according to the ownership type of older people care. Cross-sectional survey data was collected during the autumn of 2007 from 1084 Finnish female older people care staff aged 18-69 years were used. Team Climate Inventory was used to measure team climate. Ownership type was divided into four categories: for-profit sheltered homes, not-for-profit sheltered homes, public sheltered homes and not-for-profit nursing homes. Analyses of covariance were used to examine the associations. Team climate dimensions participative safety, vision and support for innovation were higher in not-for-profit organizations (both sheltered homes and nursing homes) compared to for-profit sheltered homes and public sheltered homes. Stress factors did not account for these associations but acted as moderators in a way that in terms of task orientation and participative safety employees working in for-profit organizations seemed to be slightly more sensitive to work-related stress than others. Our results suggest that for-profit organizations and public organizations may have difficulties in maintaining their team climate. In consequence, these organizations should focus more effort on improving their team climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts

  20. Do climate variables and human density affect Achatina fulica (Bowditch) (Gastropoda: Pulmonata) shell length, total weight and condition factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albuquerque, F S; Peso-Aguiar, M C; Assunção-Albuquerque, M J T; Gálvez, L

    2009-08-01

    The length-weight relationship and condition factor have been broadly investigated in snails to obtain the index of physical condition of populations and evaluate habitat quality. Herein, our goal was to describe the best predictors that explain Achatina fulica biometrical parameters and well being in a recently introduced population. From November 2001 to November 2002, monthly snail samples were collected in Lauro de Freitas City, Bahia, Brazil. Shell length and total weight were measured in the laboratory and the potential curve and condition factor were calculated. Five environmental variables were considered: temperature range, mean temperature, humidity, precipitation and human density. Multiple regressions were used to generate models including multiple predictors, via model selection approach, and then ranked with AIC criteria. Partial regressions were used to obtain the separated coefficients of determination of climate and human density models. A total of 1.460 individuals were collected, presenting a shell length range between 4.8 to 102.5 mm (mean: 42.18 mm). The relationship between total length and total weight revealed that Achatina fulica presented a negative allometric growth. Simple regression indicated that humidity has a significant influence on A. fulica total length and weight. Temperature range was the main variable that influenced the condition factor. Multiple regressions showed that climatic and human variables explain a small proportion of the variance in shell length and total weight, but may explain up to 55.7% of the condition factor variance. Consequently, we believe that the well being and biometric parameters of A. fulica can be influenced by climatic and human density factors.

  1. Do climate variables and human density affect Achatina fulica (Bowditch (Gastropoda: Pulmonata shell length, total weight and condition factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FS. Albuquerque

    Full Text Available The length-weight relationship and condition factor have been broadly investigated in snails to obtain the index of physical condition of populations and evaluate habitat quality. Herein, our goal was to describe the best predictors that explain Achatina fulica biometrical parameters and well being in a recently introduced population. From November 2001 to November 2002, monthly snail samples were collected in Lauro de Freitas City, Bahia, Brazil. Shell length and total weight were measured in the laboratory and the potential curve and condition factor were calculated. Five environmental variables were considered: temperature range, mean temperature, humidity, precipitation and human density. Multiple regressions were used to generate models including multiple predictors, via model selection approach, and then ranked with AIC criteria. Partial regressions were used to obtain the separated coefficients of determination of climate and human density models. A total of 1.460 individuals were collected, presenting a shell length range between 4.8 to 102.5 mm (mean: 42.18 mm. The relationship between total length and total weight revealed that Achatina fulica presented a negative allometric growth. Simple regression indicated that humidity has a significant influence on A. fulica total length and weight. Temperature range was the main variable that influenced the condition factor. Multiple regressions showed that climatic and human variables explain a small proportion of the variance in shell length and total weight, but may explain up to 55.7% of the condition factor variance. Consequently, we believe that the well being and biometric parameters of A. fulica can be influenced by climatic and human density factors.

  2. Climatic conditions as a risk factor in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennler, R; Koch, D; Hassig, M; Howard, J; Montavon, P M

    2005-01-01

    Canine acute gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of multifactorial origin. The risk of developing GDV is influenced by a variety of factors, including breed, age, gender, temperament, diet and management. A relationship between seasonal variations and the frequency of GDV has been previously documented although no association was found with any specific climatic event. Variables in weather conditions within a defined geographic region were investigated in a retrospective study of 287 client-owned dogs diagnosed with GDV between 1992 and 1999. Monthly incidences were evaluated and differences in atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure between days in which GDV cases were observed and days in which no case was presented were examined. Although temperature was significantly associated with the occurrence of GDV, the difference in temperatures between days with and days without GDV cases was so small that it is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Moreover, no significant association was found between GDV occurrence and atmospheric pressure or humidity, and a seasonal variation in GDV incidence was not observed.

  3. The effect of seasonal changes and climatic factors on suicide attempts of young people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkaya-Kalayci, Türkan; Vyssoki, Benjamin; Winkler, Dietmar; Willeit, Matthaeus; Kapusta, Nestor D; Dorffner, Georg; Özlü-Erkilic, Zeliha

    2017-11-15

    Seasonal changes and climatic factors like ambient temperature, sunlight duration and rainfall can influence suicidal behavior. This study analyses the relationship between seasonal changes and climatic variations and suicide attempts in 2131 young patients in Istanbul, Turkey. In our study sample, there was an association between suicide attempts in youths and seasonal changes, as suicide attempts occurred most frequently during summer in females as well as in males. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between the mean temperature over the past 10 days and temperature at the index day and suicide attempts in females. After seasonality effects were mathematically removed, the mean temperature 10 days before a suicide attempt remained significant in males only, indicating a possible short-term influence of temperature on suicide attempts. This study shows an association between suicide attempts of young people and climatic changes, in particular temperature changes as well as seasonal changes. Therefore, the influence of seasonal changes and climatic factors on young suicide attempters should get more attention in research to understand the biopsychosocial mechanisms playing a role in suicide attempts of young people. As suicide attempts most frequently occur in young people, further research is of considerable clinical importance.

  4. Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Muñoz, Ángel G; Ryan, Sadie J; Ayala, Efraín Beltrán; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Finkelstein, Julia L; Mejía, Raúl; Ordoñez, Tania; Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina; Rivero, Keytia

    2014-11-25

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is a rapidly emerging public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics. However, we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. Previous studies in southern coastal Ecuador have demonstrated the potential to develop a dengue early warning system (EWS) that incorporates climate and non-climate information. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS. The following data from Machala were included in analyses: neighborhood-level georeferenced dengue cases, national census data, and entomological surveillance data from 2010; and time series of weekly dengue cases (aggregated to the city-level) and meteorological data from 2003 to 2012. We applied LISA and Moran's I to analyze the spatial distribution of the 2010 dengue cases, and developed multivariate logistic regression models through a multi-model selection process to identify census variables and entomological covariates associated with the presence of dengue at the neighborhood level. Using data aggregated at the city-level, we conducted a time-series (wavelet) analysis of weekly climate and dengue incidence (2003-2012) to identify significant time periods (e.g., annual, biannual) when climate co-varied with dengue, and to describe the climate conditions associated with the 2010 outbreak. We found significant hotspots of dengue transmission near the center of Machala. The best-fit model to predict the presence of dengue included older age and female gender of the head of the household, greater access to piped water in the home, poor housing condition, and less distance to the central hospital. Wavelet analyses revealed that dengue transmission co-varied with rainfall and minimum temperature at annual and biannual cycles, and we

  5. Factors affecting the local control of stereotactic body radiotherapy for lung tumors including primary lung cancer and metastatic lung tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamamoto, Yasushi; Kataoka, Masaaki; Yamashita, Motohiro

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting local control of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for lung tumors including primary lung cancer and metastatic lung tumors. Between June 2006 and June 2009, 159 lung tumors in 144 patients (primary lung cancer, 128; metastatic lung tumor, 31) were treated with SBRT with 48-60 Gy (mean 50.1 Gy) in 4-5 fractions. Higher doses were given to larger tumors and metastatic tumors in principle. Assessed factors were age, gender, tumor origin (primary vs. metastatic), histological subtype, tumor size, tumor appearance (solid vs. ground glass opacity), maximum standardized uptake value of positron emission tomography using 18 F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose, and SBRT doses. Follow-up time was 1-60 months (median 18 months). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year local failure-free rates of all lesions were 90, 80, and 77%, respectively. On univariate analysis, metastatic tumors (p<0.0001), solid tumors (p=0.0246), and higher SBRT doses (p=0.0334) were the statistically significant unfavorable factors for local control. On multivariate analysis, only tumor origin was statistically significant (p=0.0027). The 2-year local failure-free rates of primary lung cancer and metastatic lung tumors were 87 and 50%, respectively. A metastatic tumor was the only independently significant unfavorable factor for local control after SBRT. (author)

  6. Theoretical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Factors in a Vibrio Cholerae Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolaye, G; Damakoa, I; Bowong, S; Houe, R; Békollè, D

    2018-05-04

    A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilibria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable products against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.

  7. Leaf litter nitrogen concentration as related to climatic factors in Eurasian forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Chunjiang; Berg, Bjørn; Kutsch, Werner

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in leaf litter of forest trees as functions of climatic factors, annual average temperature (Temp, °C) and annual precipitation (Precip, dm) and of forest type (coniferous vs. broadleaf, deciduous vs. evergreen, Pinus...... concentration and Temp and Precip by means of regression analysis. Leaf litter data from N2-fixing species were excluded from the analysis. Results: Over the Eurasian continent, leaf litter N concentration increased with increasing Temp and Precip within functional groups such as conifers, broadleaf, deciduous....... In the context of global warming, these regression equations are useful for a better understanding and modelling of the effects of geographical and climatic factors on leaf litter N at a regional and continental scale....

  8. Simulation of thermal indoor climate in buildings by using human Projected Area Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jørgen Erik

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays many new and old buildings in Denmark have large glass surfaces. This is a consequence of the technical development of windows with low U-values that has made it possible to build houses with windows from floor to ceiling in northern climates. On the other hand if one is sitting close to...... for dynamic building thermal analysis. The method is demonstrated in a newer apartment with windows from floor to ceiling and shows how impotent it is to include the radiant effect from the glass sur-faces and how it influences the indoor thermal climate significantly.......Nowadays many new and old buildings in Denmark have large glass surfaces. This is a consequence of the technical development of windows with low U-values that has made it possible to build houses with windows from floor to ceiling in northern climates. On the other hand if one is sitting close...

  9. Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

    2014-01-01

    Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

  10. Spatially heterogeneous land cover/land use and climatic risk factors of tick-borne feline cytauxzoonosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Ram K; Almes, Kelli; Goodin, Doug G; Harrington, John A; Stackhouse, Paul W

    2014-07-01

    Feline cytauxzoonosis is a highly fatal tick-borne disease caused by a hemoparasitic protozoan, Cytauxzoon felis. This disease is a leading cause of mortality for cats in the Midwestern United States, and no vaccine or effective treatment options exist. Prevention based on knowledge of risk factors is therefore vital. Associations of different environmental factors, including recent climate were evaluated as potential risk factors for cytauxzoonosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). There were 69 cases determined to be positive for cytauxzoonosis based upon positive identification of C. felis within blood film examinations, tissue impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Negative controls totaling 123 were selected from feline cases that had a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but lack of C. felis within blood films, impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Additional criteria to rule out C. felis among controls were the presence of regenerative anemia, cytologic examination of blood marrow or lymph node aspirate, other causative agent diagnosed, or survival of 25 days or greater after testing. Potential environmental determinants were derived from publicly available sources, viz., US Department of Agriculture (soil attributes), US Geological Survey (land-cover/landscape, landscape metrics), and NASA (climate). Candidate variables were screened using univariate logistic models with a liberal p value (0.2), and associations with cytauxzoonosis were modeled using a global multivariate logistic model (p<0.05). Spatial heterogeneity among significant variables in the study region was modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach. Total Edge Contrast Index (TECI), grassland-coverage, humidity conditions recorded during the 9(th) week prior to case arrival, and an interaction variable, "diurnal temperature range × percent mixed forest area" were significant risk factors for

  11. Analysis of Factors in Technological and Vocational School Teachers' Perceived Organizational Innovative Climate and Continuous Use of E-Teaching: Using Computer Self-Efficacy as an Intervening Variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Chun-Mei; Hsiao, His-Chi; Shen, Chien-Hua; Chen, Su-Chang

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to analyze the correlation (N = 335) among technological and vocational school teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate, computer self-efficacy, and continuous use of e-teaching in Taiwan. Teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate includes five factors, namely, job autonomy, innovative leadership, resource…

  12. Prognostic factors for head and neck cancer of unknown primary including the impact of human papilloma virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelsson, Lars; Nyman, Jan; Haugen-Cange, Hedda; Bove, Mogens; Johansson, Leif; De Lara, Shahin; Kovács, Anikó; Hammerlid, Eva

    2017-06-10

    Head and neck cancer of unknown primary (HNCUP) is rare and prospective studies are lacking. The impact of different prognostic factors such as age and N stage is not completely known, the optimal treatment is not yet established, and the reported survival rates vary. In the last decade, human papilloma virus (HPV) has been identified as a common cause of and important prognostic factor in oropharyngeal cancer, and there is now growing interest in the importance of HPV for HNCUP. The aim of the present study on curatively treated HNCUP was to investigate the prognostic importance of different factors, including HPV status, treatment, and overall survival. A search for HNCUP was performed in the Swedish Cancer Registry, Western health district, between the years 1992-2009. The medical records were reviewed, and only patients with squamous cell carcinoma or undifferentiated carcinoma treated with curative intent were included. The tumor specimens were retrospectively analyzed for HPV with p16 immunostaining. Sixty-eight patients were included. The mean age was 59 years. The majority were males, and had N2 tumors. Sixty-nine percent of the tumors were HPV positive using p16 staining. Patients who were older than 70 years, patients with N3-stage tumors, and patients with tumors that were p16 negative had a significantly worse prognosis. The overall 5-year survival rate for patients with p16-positive tumors was 88% vs 61% for p16-negative tumors. Treatment with neck dissection and postoperative radiation or (chemo) radiation had 81 and 88% 5-year survival rates, respectively. The overall and disease-free 5-year survival rates for all patients in the study were 82 and 74%. Curatively treated HNCUP had good survival. HPV infection was common. Independent prognostic factors for survival were age over 70 years, HPV status and N3 stage. We recommend that HPV analysis should be performed routinely for HNCUP. Treatment with neck dissection and postoperative radiation or

  13. Seroprevalence and risk factor analysis of human leptospirosis in distinct climatic regions of Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohail, Muhammad Luqman; Khan, Muhammad Sarwar; Ijaz, Muhammad; Naseer, Omer; Fatima, Zahida; Ahmad, Abdullah Saghir; Ahmad, Waqas

    2018-05-01

    Leptospirosis is a worldwide emerging infectious disease of zoonotic importance and large epidemics and epizootics have been reported all over the globe. A cross survey study was conducted to estimate seroprevalence of human leptospirosis in climatically distinct regions of Pakistan and to identify the risk factors associated with the disease. Blood samples from 360 humans were collected through convenient sampling, 120 from each of three study areas. Serological testing was performed using ELISA kit as per manufacturer's recommendations. The results showed an overall prevalence of 40.83% (95% CI; 35.71-46.11). Statistical analysis showed significant (P climatic region (50.83%; 95% CI; 41.55-60.07), followed by semi-arid region (44.16%; 95% CI; 35.11-53.52) and lowest in hot and dry region (27.50%; 95% CI; 19.75-36.40). After multivariate analysis age, gender, exposure to flooding water, source of water usage, disinfection schedule of surroundings and history of cut and wound were found significantly associated with the seropositivity of Leptospira. The present study, first to uncover seroprevalence of human Leptospira in different climatic regions of Pakistan, alarms about effect of climate on prevalence of Leptospira in the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

  15. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  16. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  17. RNA Sequencing Analysis Reveals Transcriptomic Variations in Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum Leaves Affected by Climate, Soil, and Tillage Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Lei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The growth and development of plants are sensitive to their surroundings. Although numerous studies have analyzed plant transcriptomic variation, few have quantified the effect of combinations of factors or identified factor-specific effects. In this study, we performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq analysis on tobacco leaves derived from 10 treatment combinations of three groups of ecological factors, i.e., climate factors (CFs, soil factors (SFs, and tillage factors (TFs. We detected 4980, 2916, and 1605 differentially expressed genes (DEGs that were affected by CFs, SFs, and TFs, which included 2703, 768, and 507 specific and 703 common DEGs (simultaneously regulated by CFs, SFs, and TFs, respectively. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses showed that genes involved in abiotic stress responses and secondary metabolic pathways were overrepresented in the common and CF-specific DEGs. In addition, we noted enrichment in CF-specific DEGs related to the circadian rhythm, SF-specific DEGs involved in mineral nutrient absorption and transport, and SF- and TF-specific DEGs associated with photosynthesis. Based on these results, we propose a model that explains how plants adapt to various ecological factors at the transcriptomic level. Additionally, the identified DEGs lay the foundation for future investigations of stress resistance, circadian rhythm and photosynthesis in tobacco.

  18. Transmission of Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China and the Role of Climate Factors: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is a rodent-borne disease that poses a serious public health threat in China. HFRS is caused by hantaviruses, mainly Seoul virus in urban areas and Hantaan virus in agricultural areas. Although preventive measures including vaccination programs and rodent control measures have resulted in a decline in cases in recent years, there has been an increase in incidence in some areas and new endemic areas have emerged. This review summarises the recent literature relating to the effects of climatic factors on the incidence of HFRS in China and discusses future research directions. Temperature, precipitation and humidity affect crop yields, rodent breeding patterns and disease transmission, and these can be influenced by a changing climate. Detailed surveillance of infections caused by Hantaan and Seoul viruses and further research on the viral agents will aid in interpretation of spatiotemporal patterns and a better understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of HFRS amid China's rapidly urbanising landscape and changing climate.

  19. Factors that contribute to biomarker responses in humans including a study in individuals taking Vitamin C supplementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D

    2001-09-01

    It is possible in many situations to identify humans exposed to potentially toxic materials in the workplace and in the environment. As in most human studies, there tends to be a high degree of interindividual variability in response to chemical insults. Some non-exposed control individuals exhibit as high a level of damage as some exposed individuals and some of these have levels of damage as low as many of the controls. Thus, it is only the mean values of the groups that can substantiate an exposure-related problem; the data on an individual basis are still of limited use. While human lymphocytes remain the most popular cell type for monitoring purposes, sperm, buccal, nasal, epithelial and placental cells are also used. However, for interpretation of responses, the issue of confounding factors must be addressed. There are endogenous confounding factors, such as age, gender, and genetic make-up and exogenous ones, including lifestyle habits (smoking, drinking, etc.) There are biomarkers of exposure, effect/response and susceptibility and the last may be influenced by the genotype and polymorphism genes existing in a population. From our own studies, confounding effects on cytogenetic damage and ras oncoproteins will be considered in relation to workers exposed to vinyl chloride and petroleum emissions and to volunteers taking Vitamin C supplementation. Smoking history, exposure and duration of employment affected the worker studies. For petroleum emissions, so did gender and season of exposure. For the non-smoking volunteer Vitamin C supplementation study, cholesterol levels, plasma Vitamin C levels, lipid peroxidation products and DNA damage in the Comet assay were also measured. Gender affected differences in Vitamin C levels, antioxidant capacity and the number of chromosome aberrations induced by bleomycin challenge in vitro. The results were the same for both high and low cholesterol subjects. The relationship between biomarkers and the various factors which

  20. Parental concern about vaccine safety in Canadian children partially immunized at age 2: a multivariable model including system level factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Shannon E; Schopflocher, Donald P; Vaudry, Wendy

    2014-01-01

    Children who begin but do not fully complete the recommended series of childhood vaccines by 2 y of age are a much larger group than those who receive no vaccines. While parents who refuse all vaccines typically express concern about vaccine safety, it is critical to determine what influences parents of 'partially' immunized children. This case-control study examined whether parental concern about vaccine safety was responsible for partial immunization, and whether other personal or system-level factors played an important role. A random sample of parents of partially and completely immunized 2 y old children were selected from a Canadian regional immunization registry and completed a postal survey assessing various personal and system-level factors. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and adjusted ORs (aOR) were calculated with logistic regression. While vaccine safety concern was associated with partial immunization (OR 7.338, 95% CI 4.138-13.012), other variables were more strongly associated and reduced the strength of the relationship between concern and partial immunization in multivariable analysis (aOR 2.829, 95% CI 1.151-6.957). Other important factors included perceived disease susceptibility and severity (aOR 4.629, 95% CI 2.017-10.625), residential mobility (aOR 3.908, 95% CI 2.075-7.358), daycare use (aOR 0.310, 95% CI 0.144-0.671), number of needles administered at each visit (aOR 7.734, 95% CI 2.598-23.025) and access to a regular physician (aOR 0.219, 95% CI 0.057-0.846). While concern about vaccine safety may be addressed through educational strategies, this study suggests that additional program and policy-level strategies may positively impact immunization uptake.

  1. Risk factors for exposure to influenza a viruses, including subtype H5 viruses, in Thai free-grazing ducks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, A L; Kitikoon, P; Schreiner, P J; Singer, R S; Sasipreeyajan, J; Amonsin, A; Gramer, M R; Pakinsee, S; Bender, J B

    2014-08-01

    Free-grazing ducks (FGD) have been associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks and may be a viral reservoir. In July-August 2010, we assessed influenza exposure of Thai FGD and risk factors thereof. Serum from 6254 ducks was analysed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect antibodies to influenza A nucleoprotein (NP), and haemagglutinin H5 protein. Eighty-five per cent (5305 ducks) were seropositive for influenza A. Of the NP-seropositive sera tested with H5 assays (n = 1423), 553 (39%) were H5 ELISA positive and 57 (4%) suspect. Twelve per cent (74 of 610) of H5 ELISA-positive/suspect ducks had H5 titres ≥ 1 : 20 by haemagglutination inhibition. Risk factors for influenza A seropositivity include older age, poultry contact, flock visitors and older purchase age. Study flocks had H5 virus exposure as recently as March 2010, but no HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have been identified in Thailand since 2008, highlighting a need for rigorous FGD surveillance. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  2. Air quality: how to assess air quality management policies on a short and on a long term? The integration of the climate factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prevot, Aurelie

    2014-01-01

    This document presents the activities and works performed by the INERIS Institute in the development of tools for the assessment of air quality management policies including the climate factor. This comprises the development of simulations within the frame of the SALUT'AIR project, and also within the frame of the reviewing of the European policy on air quality (directives 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and 2001/81/CE on national limits of emissions of some pollutants). The CHIMERE model of chemistry and transport is one of these tools. Simulations are performed to analyse the impact of scenarios of air quality management on a short term, in terms of pollutant emissions, pollutant concentration, and particle concentrations. The integration of a climate factor is justified by the existence of interactions between climate and air quality

  3. Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou, 2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaowei Sang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response.In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL. The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend.Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system.

  4. Mode and climatic factors effect on energy losses in transient heat modes of transmission lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigun, A. Ya; Sidorov, O. A.; Osipov, D. S.; Girshin, S. S.; Goryunov, V. N.; Petrova, E. V.

    2018-01-01

    Electrical energy losses increase in modern grids. The losses are connected with an increase in consumption. Existing models of electric power losses estimation considering climatic factors do not allow estimating the cable temperature in real time. Considering weather and mode factors in real time allows to meet effectively and safely the consumer’s needs to minimize energy losses during transmission, to use electric power equipment effectively. These factors increase an interest in the evaluation of the dynamic thermal mode of overhead transmission lines conductors. The article discusses an approximate analytic solution of the heat balance equation in the transient operation mode of overhead lines based on the least squares method. The accuracy of the results obtained is comparable with the results of solving the heat balance equation of transient thermal mode with the Runge-Kutt method. The analysis of mode and climatic factors effect on the cable temperature in a dynamic thermal mode is presented. The calculation of the maximum permissible current for variation of weather conditions is made. The average electric energy losses during the transient process are calculated with the change of wind, air temperature and solar radiation. The parameters having the greatest effect on the transmission capacity are identified.

  5. Climate change as a confounding factor in reversibility of acidification: RAIN and CLIMEX projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia, southernmost Norway, together cover 17 years (1984-2000 of whole-catchment manipulation of acid deposition and climate. A 1200 m2 roof placed over the forest canopy at KIM catchment excluded about 80% of ambient acid deposition; clean rain was sprinkled under the roof. A climate change treatment (3.7°C increase in air temperature and increase in air carbon dioxide concentrations to 560 ppmv was superimposed on the clean rain treatment for four years (1995-1998. Sea-salt inputs and temperature are climate-related factors that influence water chemistry and can confound long-term trends caused by changes in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia provided direct experimental data that allow quantitative assessment of these factors. Run-off chemistry responded rapidly to the decreased acid deposition. Sulphate concentrations decreased by 50% within three years; nitrate and ammonium concentrations decreased to new steady-state levels within the first year. Acid neutralising capacity increased and hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium decreased. Similar recovery from acidification was also observed at the reference catchment, ROLF, in response to the general 50% reduction in sulphate deposition over southern Norway in the late 1980s and 1990s. Variations in sea-salt deposition caused large variations in run-off chemistry at the reference catchment ROLF and the year-to-year noise in acid neutralising capacity was as large as the overall trend over the period. These variations were absent at KIM catchment because the sea-salt inputs were held constant over the entire 17 years of the clean rain treatment. The climate change experiment at KIM catchment resulted in increased leaching of inorganic nitrogen, probably due to increased mineralisation and nitrification rates in the soils. Keywords: acid deposition, global change, water, soil, catchment, experiment, Norway.

  6. Influence of Agronomic and Climatic Factors on Fusarium Infestation and Mycotoxin Contamination of Cereals in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhoft, A.; Torp, M.; Clasen, P.-E.; Løes, A.-K.; Kristoffersen, A.B.

    2012-01-01

    A total of 602 samples of organically and conventionally grown barley, oats and wheat was collected at grain harvest during 2002–2004 in Norway. Organic and conventional samples were comparable pairs regarding cereal species, growing site and harvest time, and were analysed for Fusarium mould and mycotoxins. Agronomic and climatic factors explained 10–30% of the variation in Fusarium species and mycotoxins. Significantly lower Fusarium infestation and concentrations of important mycotoxins were found in the organic cereals. The mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) and HT-2 toxin (HT-2) constitute the main risk for human and animal health in Norwegian cereals. The impacts of various agronomic and climatic factors on DON and HT-2 as well as on their main producers F. graminearum and F. langsethiae and on total Fusarium were tested by multivariate statistics. Crop rotation with non-cereals was found to reduce all investigated characteristics significantly – mycotoxin concentrations as well as various Fusarium infestations. No use of mineral fertilisers and herbicides was also found to decrease F. graminearum, whereas lodged fields increased the occurrence of this species. No use of herbicides was also found to decrease F. langsethiae, but for this species the occurrence was lower in lodged fields. Total Fusarium infestation was decreased with no use of fungicides or mineral fertilisers, and with crop rotation, as well as by using herbicides and increased by lodged fields. Clay and to some extent silty soils seemed to reduce F. graminearum in comparison with sandy soils. Concerning climate factors, low temperature before grain harvest was found to increase DON; and high air humidity before harvest to increase HT-2. F. graminearum was negatively correlated with precipitation in July but correlated with air humidity before harvest. F. langsethiae was correlated with temperature in July. Total Fusarium increased with increasing precipitation in July. Organic cereal

  7. Emergency Preparedness Safety Climate and Other Factors Associated With Mental Health Outcomes Among World Trade Center Disaster Evacuees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Martin F; Gershon, Robyn R; Riley, Halley E M; Zhi, Qi; Magda, Lori A; Peyrot, Mark

    2017-06-01

    We examined psychological outcomes in a sample of participants who evacuated from the World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2011. This study aimed to identify risk factors for psychological injury that might be amenable to change, thereby reducing adverse impacts associated with emergency high-rise evacuation. We used data from a cross-sectional survey conducted 2 years after the attacks to classify 789 evacuees into 3 self-reported psychological outcome categories: long-term psychological disorder diagnosed by a physician, short-term psychological disorder and/or memory problems, and no known psychological disorder. After nonmodifiable risk factors were controlled for, diagnosed psychological disorder was more likely for evacuees who reported lower "emergency preparedness safety climate" scores, more evacuation challenges (during exit from the towers), and evacuation-related physical injuries. Other variables associated with increased risk of psychological disorder outcome included gender (female), lower levels of education, preexisting physical disability, preexisting psychological disorder, greater distance to final exit, and more information sources during egress. Improving the "emergency preparedness safety climate" of high-rise business occupancies and reducing the number of egress challenges are potential strategies for reducing the risk of adverse psychological outcomes of high-rise evacuations. Focused safety training for individuals with physical disabilities is also warranted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:326-336).

  8. School climate factors contributing to student and faculty perceptions of safety in select Arizona schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosworth, Kris; Ford, Lysbeth; Hernandaz, Diley

    2011-04-01

    To ensure that schools are safe places where students can learn, researchers and educators must understand student and faculty safety concerns. This study examines student and teacher perceptions of school safety. Twenty-two focus groups with students and faculty were conducted in 11 secondary schools. Schools were selected from a stratified sample to vary in location, proximity to Indian reservations, size, and type. The data analysis was based on grounded theory. In 9 of 11 schools, neither faculty nor students voiced overwhelming concerns about safety. When asked what makes school safe, students tended to report physical security features. School climate and staff actions also increased feelings of safety. Faculty reported that relationships and climate are key factors in making schools safe. High student performance on standardized tests does not buffer students from unsafe behavior, nor does living in a dangerous neighborhood necessarily lead to more drug use or violence within school walls. School climate seemed to explain the difference between schools in which students and faculty reported higher versus lower levels of violence and alcohol and other drug use. The findings raise provocative questions about school safety and provide insight into elements that lead to perceptions of safety. Some schools have transcended issues of location and neighborhood to provide an environment perceived as safe. Further study of those schools could provide insights for policy makers, program planners, and educational leaders. © 2011, American School Health Association.

  9. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  10. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  11. CLIMATE CHANGES AS THE RISK FACTOR IN MILK PRODUCTION IN WIELKOPOLSKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryszard Chaberski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The pilot researches were conducted in Wielkopolska. They aimed initial identifi cation of cows reaction on changing of THI, which are likened to temperature and humidity conditions of air. The subjected cows characterize with high productivity, exceeding 40kg of milk per day, independently from lactation stages. The results display that the day s production of raw milk, as well as fat and protein content, do not only depend on lactation stage but also on the value of THI factors. Higher THI is accompanied by loss in the weight of milk and drop in its technological utility. The climate warming may escalate the risk of production loss during the heats.

  12. Climate in Earth history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

    1982-01-01

    Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

  13. Improvements in scaling of counter-current imbibition recovery curves using a shape factor including permeability anisotropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Jassem; Sarafrazi, Shiva; Riazi, Masoud; Ghaedi, Mojtaba

    2018-02-01

    Spontaneous imbibition is the main oil production mechanism in the water invaded zone of a naturally fractured reservoir (NFR). Different scaling equations have been presented in the literature for upscaling of core scale imbibition recovery curves to field scale matrix blocks. Various scale dependent parameters such as gravity effects and boundary influences are required to be considered in the upscaling process. Fluid flow from matrix blocks to the fracture system is highly dependent on the permeability value in the horizontal and vertical directions. The purpose of this study is to include permeability anisotropy in the available scaling equations to improve the prediction of imbibition assisted oil production in NFRs. In this paper, a commercial reservoir simulator was used to obtain imbibition recovery curves for different scenarios. Then, the effect of permeability anisotropy on imbibition recovery curves was investigated, and the weakness of the existing scaling equations for anisotropic rocks was demonstrated. Consequently, an analytical shape factor was introduced that can better scale all the curves related to anisotropic matrix blocks.

  14. Carbon dioxide and climate. [Appendix includes names and addresses of the Principal Investigators for the research projects funded in FY1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-10-01

    Global climate change is a serious environmental concern, and the US has developed An Action Agenda'' to deal with it. At the heart of the US effort is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which has been developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The USGCRP will provide the scientific basis for sound policy making on the climate-change issue. The DOE contribution to the USGCRP is the Carbon Dioxide Research Program, which now places particular emphasis on the rapid improvement of the capability to predict global and regional climate change. DOE's Carbon Dioxide Research Program has been addressing the carbon dioxide-climate change connection for more than twelve years and has provided a solid scientific foundation for the USGCRP. The expansion of the DOE effort reflects the increased attention that the Department has placed on the issue and is reflected in the National Energy Strategy (NES) that was released in 1991. This Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1991 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments. The Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Health and Environmental Research, Office of Energy Research supports a Carbon Dioxide Research Program to determine the scientific linkage between the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, and climate and vegetation change. One facet is the Core CO{sub 2} Program, a pioneering program that DOE established more than 10 years ago to understand and predict the ways that fossil-fuel burning could affect atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, global climate, and the Earth's biosphere. Major research areas are: global carbon cycle; climate detection and models of climate change; vegetation research; resource analysis; and, information and integration.

  15. Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological

  16. Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfang Zhao

    Full Text Available Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major

  17. Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marek, Michal V.; Janous, Dalibor; Taufarova, Klara; Havrankova, Katerina; Pavelka, Marian; Kaplan, Veroslav; Markova, Irena

    2011-01-01

    By comparing five ecosystem types in the Czech Republic over several years, we recorded the highest carbon sequestration potential in an evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). Because of a massive ecosystem respiration, the final carbon gain of the grassland was negative. Climate was shown to be an important factor of carbon uptake by ecosystems: by varying the growing season length (a 22-d longer season in 2005 than in 2007 increased carbon sink by 13%) or by the effect of short- term synoptic situations (e.g. summer hot and dry days reduced net carbon storage by 58% relative to hot and wet days). Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy which is demonstrated by the comparison of seasonal course of carbon uptake between coniferous (Norway spruce) and deciduous (European beech) stands. - Highlights: → Highest carbon sequestration potential in evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). → The final carbon gain of the grassland was negative (massive ecosystem respiration). → Climate is important factor of net primary productivity. → Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy of ecosystem. - Identification of the apparent differences in the carbon storage by different ecosystem types.

  18. Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avise, Jeremy; Abraham, Rodrigo Gonzalez; Chung, Serena H; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Salathé, Eric P; Zhang, Yongxin; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Duhl, Tiffany

    2012-09-01

    The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of

  19. Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

    2017-07-01

    Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. The major factors of influence on the socio-psychological climate in the team of health care workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vezhnovets T.A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research was to identify the major factors that can positively or negatively effect the state of the socio-psychological climate in the medical team of healthcare institutions. The psychological study of the social-psychologic climate of 152 health care workers of two hospitals of Kherson region (N 1, n=80; N 2, n=72 was conducted. It is established that the level of self-esteem of climate in the institution №1 was significantly lower than in institution N 2 (р<0,007. Moreover, these two institutions differed significantly by experience of joint work of health workers (р<0.05 and length of service of the head physicians. Health care workers with less joint work experience have been working in the institution N 1, and it was headed by the head physician with less leading experience. By the opinion of health workers of both institutions, such factors as "interesting and meaningful work", "attentive head", "relations with colleagues", have the most positive impact on the state of climate the most negative influence — "unsatisfactory management style", "tensions in the team", "lack of financial motivation", "poor working conditions". Each team has its own combination of factors that positively or negatively affect the state of the climate. It is established, that depending on the work experience of the head physician and the work experience of joint work of employees, the main factors that affect the climate in the team are "attentive manager" and "relationships with colleagues". The more work experience of the leader, the more it will affect the state of the climate in the team. The less experience of joint work of employees, the more "relationship with colleagues" will affect its condition. Evaluation of the state of socio-psychological climate and its factors by the personnel may be the indicator of efficiency of personnel management in the health care institution.

  1. Psychological factors, including alexithymia, in the prediction of cardiovascular risk in HIV infected patients: results of a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giustino Parruti

    Full Text Available Psychological factors are known predictors of cardiovascular disease in many clinical settings, but data are lacking for HIV infection. We carried out a prospective cohort study to evaluate potential psychological predictors of preclinical and clinical vascular disease in HIV patients.HIV patients were consecutively enrolled. Demographics, viral and immune parameters and traditional cardiovascular predictors were considered; Intima-Media Thickness (c-IMT, continuous measure and Carotid Plaques (CPs, focal thickening ≥1.5 mm were investigated by B-mode ultrasonography; depressive symptoms by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II, Type D personality (Distressed Personality or Type D by the DS14, alexithymia by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20. Vascular outcomes included transient ischemic attacks or stroke, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial or other organ infarction. We enrolled 232 HIV subjects, 73.9% males, aged 44.5±9.9 y, 38.2% with AIDS diagnosis, 18.3% untreated. Mean Nadir CD4 T-cell counts were 237.5±186.2/mmc. Of them, 224 (96.5% attended IMT measurements; 201 (86.6% attended both IMT assessment and psychological profiling. Mean follow-up was 782±308 days. Fifty-nine patients (29.4% had CPs at baseline. Nineteen patients (9.5% had ≥1 vascular event; 12 (6.0% died due to such events (n = 4 or any cause. At baseline cross-sectional multivariate analysis, increasing age, total cholesterol, current smoking and Alexithymia score≥50 were significantly associated with both increased cIMT (linear regression and CPs (logistic regression. At follow-up analysis, log-rank tests and Cox's regression revealed that only older age (p = 0.001, current smoking (p = 0.019 and alexithymia score≥50 (p = 0.013 were independently associated with vascular events.In HIV-infected subjects, the Alexithymic trait emerges as a strong predictor of increased IMT, presence of CPs and vascular events. Such results are preliminary and require

  2. An analysis of factors that lead to better learning in an integrated and interdisciplinary course on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Lyford, M.; Schmidt, L. O.; Bowles-Terry, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change education presents many challenges to college educators due to the interdisciplinary nature of the issue as well as the social and political context and implications. This presents multiple barriers to learning for the student, both because it is difficult to address all scientific components in one course, and because many students have strong preconceived feelings or beliefs about climate change. A further barrier to learning for non-science majors is that very often the number of required science courses is low and a highly complex issue such as climate change is difficult to address in introductory science courses. To attempt to address these issues a course for non-science majors, Life Science 1002, Discovering Science, at the University of Wyoming was created as an interdisciplinary and integrated science course that includes a lecture component as well as weekly lab and discussion sections. Our previous work has shown a clear change in the reference sources used by non-science majors when referring to complex topics; namely, students increase their use of scientific journals when they are shown how to use scientific journals and students also report a correlated decrease in non-peer reviewed sources (ie, radio, newspapers, TV). We seek to expand on this work by using pre- and post-topic student surveys in the course at the University of Wyoming to directly measure student performance in different components of the course. The course has enrollment between 120 and 130 students, with nearly equal distribution between grade levels and a wide sampling of non-science majors or undeclared majors. For this work we will use a non-quantitative survey of students to find out which part of the course (lecture, lab or discussion) is most effective for student learning. Further, quantitative analysis of which factors of the student body (class standing, major, gender, background and personal beliefs) will be correlated to help predict who achieved the best

  3. Models of simulation and prediction of the behavior of dengue in four Colombian cities, including climate like modulating variable of the disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Giraldo, Jairo A; Boshell, Jose Francisco

    2004-01-01

    ARIMA-type models are proposed to simulate the behavior of dengue and to make apparent the relations with the climatic variability in four localities of Colombia. The climatic variable was introduced into the models as an index that modulates the behavior of the disease. It was obtained by means of a multivariate analysis of principal components. The investigation was carried out with information corresponding to the epidemiological weeks from January 1997 to December 2000, for both the number of disease cases and the data corresponding to the meteorological variables. The study shows that the variations of the climate between the previous 9 to 14 weeks have influence on the appearance of new cases of dengue. In particular, the precipitation in these weeks was seen to be greater when in later periods the disease presented epidemic characteristics than the precipitation in those weeks preceded the disease within endemic limits

  4. Climatic factors related to land-use planning in the Puget Sound basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foxworthy, B.L.; Richardson, Donald

    1973-01-01

    Climate is a basic part of the natural environment and exerts a strong influence on many of man's activities. In the Puget Sound basin especially, effective land-use planning requires consideration of climatic influences, for the climate differs significantly in the various parts of the area. However, climatic information may not be given adequate consideration in the planning process if pertinent data are not readily available or if the importance of some climatic features is not apparent. 

  5. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamigaki, Taro; Chaw, Liling; Tan, Alvin G; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P; Javier, Jenaline B; Olveda, Remigio M; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L

    2016-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for

  6. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Kamigaki

    Full Text Available The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their

  7. The importance of geomorphic and hydrologic factors in shaping the sensitivity of alpine/subalpine lake volumes to shifts in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, J.; Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Befus, K. M.; Williams, D. G.; Kraushaar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine and subalpine lakes are important components of the hydrologic cycle in mountain ecosystems. These lakes are also highly sensitive to small shifts in temperature and precipitation. Mountain lake volumes and their contributions to mountain hydrology may change in response to even minor declines in snowpack or increases in temperature. However, it is still not clear to what degree non-climatic factors, such as geomorphic setting and lake geometry, play in shaping the sensitivity of high elevation lakes to climate change. We investigated the importance of lake geometry and groundwater connectivity to mountain lakes in the Snowy Range, Wyoming using a combination of hydrophysical and hydrochemical methods, including stable water isotopes, to better understand the role these factors play in controlling lake volume. Water isotope values in open lakes were less sensitive to evaporation compared to those in closed basin lakes. Lake geometry played an important role, with wider, shallower lakes being more sensitive to evaporation over time. Groundwater contributions appear to play only a minor role in buffering volumetric changes to lakes over the growing season. These results confirm that mountain lakes are sensitive to climate factors, but also highlight a significant amount of variability in that sensitivity. This research has implications for water resource managers concerned with downstream water quantity and quality from mountain ecosystems, biologists interested in maintaining aquatic biodiversity, and paleoclimatologists interested in using lake sedimentary information to infer past climate regimes.

  8. Assessing organizational implementation context in the education sector: confirmatory factor analysis of measures of implementation leadership, climate, and citizenship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Aaron R; Cook, Clayton R; Brown, Eric C; Locke, Jill; Davis, Chayna; Ehrhart, Mark; Aarons, Gregory A

    2018-01-08

    A substantial literature has established the role of the inner organizational setting on the implementation of evidence-based practices in community contexts, but very little of this research has been extended to the education sector, one of the most common settings for the delivery of mental and behavioral health services to children and adolescents. The current study examined the factor structure, psychometric properties, and interrelations of an adapted set of pragmatic organizational instruments measuring key aspects of the organizational implementation context in schools: (1) strategic implementation leadership, (2) strategic implementation climate, and (3) implementation citizenship behavior. The Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS), Implementation Climate Scale (ICS), and Implementation Citizenship Behavior Scale (ICBS) were adapted by a research team that included the original scale authors and experts in the implementation of evidence-based practices in schools. These instruments were then administered to a geographically representative sample (n = 196) of school-based mental/behavioral health consultants to assess the reliability and structural validity via a series of confirmatory factor analyses. Overall, the original factor structures for the ILS, ICS, and ICBS were confirmed in the current sample. The one exception was poor functioning of the Rewards subscale of the ICS, which was removed in the final ICS model. Correlations among the revised measures, evaluated as part of an overarching model of the organizational implementation context, indicated both unique and shared variance. The current analyses suggest strong applicability of the revised instruments to implementation of evidence-based mental and behavioral practices in the education sector. The one poorly functioning subscale (Rewards on the ICS) was attributed to typical educational policies that do not allow for individual financial incentives to personnel. Potential directions for

  9. The role of climate and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2015-04-01

    Nigeria has a number of climate-sensitive infectious diseases; one of the most important of these diseases that remains a threat to public health is cholera. This study investigates the influences of both meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera in Nigeria. A stepwise multiple regression models are used to estimate the influence of the year-to-year variations of cholera cases and deaths for individual states in the country and as well for three groups of states that are classified based on annual rainfall amount. Specifically, seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall totals were analysed with annual aggregate count of cholera cases and deaths, taking into account of the socioeconomic factors that are potentially enhancing vulnerability such as: absolute poverty, adult literacy, access to pipe borne water and population density. Result reveals that the most important explanatory meteorological and socioeconomic variables in explaining the spatiotemporal variability of the disease are rainfall totals, seasonal mean maximum temperature, absolute poverty, and accessibility to pipe borne water. The influences of socioeconomic factors appeared to be more pronounced in the northern part of the country, and vice-versa in the case of meteorological factors. Also, cross validated models output suggests a strong possibility of disease prediction, which will help authorities to put effective control measures in place which depend on prevention, and or efficient response.

  10. An examination of bullying in georgia schools: demographic and school climate factors associated with willingness to intervene in bullying situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldammer, Lori; Swahn, Monica H; Strasser, Sheryl M; Ashby, Jeffrey S; Meyers, Joel

    2013-08-01

    Research dedicated to identification of precursors to cases of aggravated bullying in schools has led to enhanced knowledge of risk factors for both victimization and perpetration. However, characteristics among those who are more likely to intervene in such situations are less understood. The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between demographic characteristics, school climate and psychosocial factors, and willingness to intervene in a bullying situation among middle and high school students in Georgia. We computed analyses using cross-sectional data from the Georgia Student Health Survey II (GSHS 2006) administered to public school students in grades 6, 8, 10, and 12 (n=175,311). We used logistic regression analyses to determine the demographic, school climate and psychosocial factors associated with a willingness to intervene in a bullying situation. Students who were white and who were girls were most likely to report willingness to intervene in bullying situations. Several school-climate factors, such as feeling safe at school, liking school, feeling successful at school and perceiving clear rules at school, were associated with willingness to intervene, while youth who reported binge drinking were less willing to intervene. These findings, while preliminary, indicate that girls, students who are white, and students who experience a relatively positive school climate and adaptive psychosocial factors are more likely to report that they would intervene in bullying situations. These findings may guide how bullying is addressed in schools and underscore the importance of safe school climates.

  11. Excitation and charge transfer in He/sup +/ + H collisions. A molecular approach including two-electron translation factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Errea, L.F.; Mendez, L.; Riera, A.

    1983-06-01

    In a previous paper we have pointed out that the common-translation-factor (CTF) method is the only one which, at present, and within the framework of the molecular model of atomic collisions, can be shown to be both convergent and computationally fast, even for many-electron systems. In this Communication we check that this second statement is correct, presenting, for the first time, a molecular calculation involving two-electron translation factors, for He/sup +/ + H collisions. A careful study of the sensitivity of the calculated cross sections to the choice of the CTF is performed, and conclusions on that sensitivity are drawn, for several types of processes.

  12. Excitation and charge transfer in He+ + H collisions. A molecular approach including two-electron translation factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Errea, L.F.; Mendez, L.; Riera, A.

    1983-01-01

    In a previous paper we have pointed out that the common-translation-factor (CTF) method is the only one which, at present, and within the framework of the molecular model of atomic collisions, can be shown to be both convergent and computationally fast, even for many-electron systems. In this Communication we check that this second statement is correct, presenting, for the first time, a molecular calculation involving two-electron translation factors, for He + + H collisions. A careful study of the sensitivity of the calculated cross sections to the choice of the CTF is performed, and conclusions on that sensitivity are drawn, for several types of processes

  13. Calculation of climate factors as an additional criteria to determine agriculturally less favoured areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjaša POGAČAR

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate factors that are proposed to determine agriculturally less favoured areas (LFA in Slovenia were analyzed for the period 1981–2010. Following the instructions of European Commission prepared by Joint Research Centre (JRC 30-years averages of low air temperatures criteria (the vegetation period duration and sums of effective air temperatures and aridity criteria (aridity index AI have to be calculated. Calculations were additionally done using Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO method, which is slightly different when determining temperature thresholds. Only hilly areas are below the LFA low air temperatures threshold with the lowest located meteorological station in Rateče. According to aridity criteria no area in Slovenia is below the threshold, so meteorological water balance was also examined. Average water balance in the period 1981–2010 was in most of locations lower than in the period 1971–2000. Climate change impacts are already expressed as trend presence in time series of studied variables, so it is recommended to calculate trends and take them into account or to perform regular iterations of calculations.

  14. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  15. Reduction of risk factors for nuclear power plants due to personnel psychological data, including attitude, morale and motivation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramova, V.N.

    1997-01-01

    The possibilities of reduction of risk factors for personnel activity and performance due to attitudes, motivation and moral are presented. Methodology and experience in psychology, sociopsychology, psychophisiology and sociology mistake sources are discussed. Authorization to job, stages of estimating occupational fitness and modules system of personnel psychological and sociopsychological training probabilistic are explained. (author). 3 figs, 1 tab

  16. Simulation of influence of some climatic factors on radiocarbon concentration in the Earth atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmetkereev, S.Kh.; Dergachev, V.A.

    1981-01-01

    The effect of different climatic factors on radiocarbon concentration in the Earth atmosphere is analyzed by modelling the exchange radiocarbon system. It is supposed that the exchange system consists of four reservoirs: long-lived surface vegetation and its remnants, the atmosphere, surface layer of the World ocean. It is shown that the variations of the ocean temperature and the variations in CO 2 amount in the atmosphere connected with it do not affect the atmosphere radiocarbon concentration. Variations in the square of sea ice on the time scale of >=1000 years could bring about variations in the 14 C concentration with the amplitude up to 1%. 14 C concentration in the atmosphere in the icing maximum 18 thousands of years ago was 7% higher than present concentration [ru

  17. Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marek, Michal V; Janouš, Dalibor; Taufarová, Klára; Havránková, Kateřina; Pavelka, Marian; Kaplan, Věroslav; Marková, Irena

    2011-05-01

    By comparing five ecosystem types in the Czech Republic over several years, we recorded the highest carbon sequestration potential in an evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). Because of a massive ecosystem respiration, the final carbon gain of the grassland was negative. Climate was shown to be an important factor of carbon uptake by ecosystems: by varying the growing season length (a 22-d longer season in 2005 than in 2007 increased carbon sink by 13%) or by the effect of short- term synoptic situations (e.g. summer hot and dry days reduced net carbon storage by 58% relative to hot and wet days). Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy which is demonstrated by the comparison of seasonal course of carbon uptake between coniferous (Norway spruce) and deciduous (European beech) stands. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The impact of climatic risk factors on the prevalence, distribution, and severity of acute and chronic trachoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Ramesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Trachoma is the most common cause of infectious blindness. Hot, dry climates, dust and water scarcity are thought to be associated with the distribution of trachoma but the evidence is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the extent to which climatic factors explain the current prevalence, distribution, and severity of acute and chronic trachoma. Understanding the present relationship between climate and trachoma could help inform current and future disease elimination. METHODS: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted to identify observational studies which quantified an association between climate factors and acute or chronic trachoma and which met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies that assessed the association between climate types and trachoma prevalence were also reviewed. RESULTS: Only eight of the 1751 papers retrieved met the inclusion criteria, all undertaken in Africa. Several papers reported an association between trachoma prevalence and altitude in highly endemic areas, providing some evidence of a role for temperature in the transmission of acute disease. A robust mapping study found strong evidence of an association between low rainfall and active trachoma. There is also consistent but weak evidence that the prevalence of trachoma is higher in savannah-type ecological zones. There were no studies on the effect of climate in low endemic areas, nor on the effect of dust on trachoma. CONCLUSION: Current evidence on the potential role of climate on trachoma distribution is limited, despite a wealth of anecdotal evidence. Temperature and rainfall appear to play a role in the transmission of acute trachoma, possibly mediated through reduced activity of flies at lower temperatures. Further research is needed on climate and other environmental and behavioural factors, particularly in arid and savannah areas. Many studies did not

  19. Harvested area gaps in China between 1981 and 2010: effects of climatic and land management factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qiangyi; van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.; You, Liangzhi; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin

    2018-04-01

    Previous analyses have shown that cropland in China is intensifying, leading to an increase in crop production. However, these output measures leave the potential for further intensification largely unassessed. This study uses the harvested area gap (HAG), which expresses the amount of harvested area that can be gained if all existing cropland is harvested as frequently as possible, according to their potential limit for multi-cropping. Specifically, we calculate the HAG and changes in the HAG in China between 1981 and 2010. We further assess how climatic and land management factors affect these changes. We find that in China the HAG decreases between the 1980s and the 1990s, and subsequently increases between the 1990s and the 2000s, resulting in a small net increase for the entire study period. The initial decrease in the HAG is the result of an increase in the average multi-cropping index throughout the country, which is larger than the increase in the potential multi-cropping index as a result of the changed climatic factors. The subsequent increase in the HAG is the result of a decrease in average multi-cropping index throughout the country, in combination with a stagnant potential. Despite the overall increase in harvested area in China, many regions, e.g. Northeast and Lower Yangtze, are characterized by an increased HAG, indicating their potential for further increasing the multi-cropping index. The study demonstrates the application of the HAG as a method to identify areas where the harvested area can increase to increase crop production, which is currently underexplored in scientific literature.

  20. An Empirical Examination of the Effects of Personality Traits and Transfer Climate Factors on Transfer of Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan Imran

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Personality has been considered an important factor influencing trainee efficiency & organizational productivity. Similarly, work climate factors have been recognized as primary influencers in post training context influencing productivity. But research concerning the impact of personality and work climate on trainees’ learning motivation has been very scant and mostly conducted in the western context. The present study was an attempt therefore, to extend this line of research in the Indian context involving educational sector of the State of Jammu & Kashmir. A sample of 517 teacher trainees was drawn for the present study using convenience sampling method. Results indicate that personality traits (i.e., conscientiousness, openness to experience, and internal locus of control do not influence training transfer directly or indirectly, while, transfer climate factors do affect training transfer both directly as well as indirectly via learning motivation. The implications of the results are discussed and the limitations of the study are noted, along with suggested avenues for future research.

  1. Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Ruiu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Birth seasonality is a phenomenon that characterizes almost all the populations of the world. In spite of this, the causes underlying these seasonal fluctuations represent an as yet unsolved puzzle. Two main theoretical approaches have been proposed to explain birth seasonality. The first encompasses a social explanation and emphasizes the role of social, economic and cultural factors in determining the optimal moment (from a social perspective for conception (e.g., according to the cycle of agricultural workload, religious festivity, marriage seasonality, etc.. The second theoretical approach encompasses an environmental explanation and focuses on the role that climatic factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, light intensity, etc. play in determining the optimal moment of conception from a biological perspective. Our paper may be collocated in the latter strand of the literature. The aim is to investigate the effects of temperature on conceptions, and subsequently on the seasonality of livebirths, while controlling for a possible social confounding effect, i.e. the seasonal pattern of marriage. To achieve this end, we empirically investigate the role of temperature as well as that of marriage seasonality in Italian regions for the period stretching from the Italian unification to the eve of World War II. We find that extreme temperatures (both cold and hot negatively affect the number of births. At the same time, marriage seasonality also seems to be an important explicative factor of the seasonal fluctuation of live births.

  2. Climatic, Edaphic Factors and Cropping History Help Predict Click Beetle (Coleoptera: Elateridae) (Agriotes spp.) Abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozina, A; Lemic, D; Bazok, R; Mikac, K M; Mclean, C M; Ivezić, M; Igrc Barčić, J

    2015-01-01

    It is assumed that the abundance of Agriotes wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) is affected by agro-ecological factors such as climatic and edaphic factors and the crop/previous crop grown at the sites investigated. The aim of this study, conducted in three different geographic counties in Croatia from 2007 to 2009, was to determine the factors that influence the abundance of adult click beetle of the species Agriotes brevis Cand., Agriotes lineatus (L.), Agriotes obscurus (L.), Agriotes sputator (L.), and Agriotes ustulatus Schall. The mean annual air temperature, total rainfall, percentage of coarse and fine sand, coarse and fine silt and clay, the soil pH, and humus were investigated as potential factors that may influence abundance. Adult click beetle emergence was monitored using sex pheromone traps (YATLORf and VARb3). Exploratory data analysis was preformed via regression tree models and regional differences in Agriotes species' abundance were predicted based on the agro-ecological factors measured. It was found that the best overall predictor of A. brevis abundance was the previous crop grown. Conversely, the best predictor of A. lineatus abundance was the current crop being grown and the percentage of humus. The best predictor of A. obscurus abundance was soil pH in KCl. The best predictor of A. sputator abundance was rainfall. Finally, the best predictors of A. ustulatus abundance were soil pH in KCl and humus. These results may be useful in regional pest control programs or for predicting future outbreaks of these species. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  3. Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stoll

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration will have an impact on groundwater resources. This study presents a modelling approach exploiting the advantages of integrated hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small catchment in northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine the impact of climate change we forced the hydrological model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations showing systematic biases which are corrected by three different statistical downscaling methods, not only for precipitation but also for the variables that govern potential evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are evaluated in a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs resulted in very different projections of potential evapotranspiration and, especially, precipitation. All three downscaling methods reduced the differences between the predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed no future groundwater stress which can be related to an expected increase in precipitation during winter. It turned out that especially the timing of the precipitation and thus recharge is very important for the future development of the groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments revealed the weaknesses of the downscaling methods which directly influence the predicted hydrological fluxes, and thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The downscaling process is identified as an important source of uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted for. Therefore it is strongly recommended to test different downscaling methods by using verification data before applying them to climate model data.

  4. Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

  5. Terrestrial ecosystems, increased solar ultraviolet radiation, and interactions with other climate change factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, M M; Bornman, J F; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Kulandaivelu, G

    2007-03-01

    , such as diminished growth, acclimation responses of plants to UV-B radiation and interactions of plants with consumer organisms such as insects and plant pathogens. The response to UV-B radiation involves both the initial stimulus by solar radiation and transmission of signals within the plants. Resulting changes in gene expression induced by these signals may have elements in common with those elicited by other environmental factors, and generate overlapping functional (including acclimation) responses. Concurrent responses of terrestrial systems to the combination of enhanced UV-B radiation and other global change factors (increased temperature, CO2, available nitrogen and altered precipitation) are less well understood. Studies of individual plant responses to combinations of factors indicate that plant growth can be augmented by higher CO2 levels, yet many of the effects of UV-B radiation are usually not ameliorated by the elevated CO2. UV-B radiation often increases both plant frost tolerance and survival under extreme high temperature conditions. Conversely, extreme temperatures sometimes influence the UV-B radiation sensitivity of plants directly. Plants that endure water deficit stress effectively are also likely to be tolerant of high UV-B flux. Biologically available nitrogen is exceeding historical levels in many regions due to human activities. Studies show that plants well supplied with nitrogen are generally more sensitive to UV-B radiation. Technical issues concerning the use of biological spectral weighting functions (BSWFs) have been further elucidated. The BSWFs, which are multiplication factors assigned to different wavelengths giving an indication of their relative biological effectiveness, are critical to the proper conduct and interpretation of experiments in which organisms are exposed to UV radiation, both in the field and in controlled environment facilities. The characteristics of BSWFs vary considerably among different plant processes, such

  6. New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

  7. Elementary Student Perceptions of School Climate and Associations with Individual and School Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Salle, Tamika P.; Zabek, Faith; Meyers, Joel

    2016-01-01

    School climate has increasingly been recognized as an essential component of school improvement owing to the established associations between a positive school climate and academic outcomes for students. Our study examines associations among a brief measure of school climate assessing elementary student perceptions and the College and Career Ready…

  8. Multilevel Factor Structure and Concurrent Validity of the Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Francis L.; Cornell, Dewey G.; Konold, Timothy; Meyer, Joseph P.; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin K.; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: School climate is well recognized as an important influence on student behavior and adjustment to school, but there is a need for theory-guided measures that make use of teacher perspectives. Authoritative school climate theory hypothesizes that a positive school climate is characterized by high levels of disciplinary structure and…

  9. Health-related quality of life and hand eczema--a comparison of two instruments, including factor analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenhammar, Lena-Marie; Nyfjäll, Mats; Lindberg, Magnus; Meding, Birgitta

    2004-06-01

    Hand eczema is a disease of long duration, affecting the individual and society. The purpose of this study of 100 patients (51 females and 49 males) at an occupational dermatology clinic was to investigate whether the generic questionnaire Short Form-36 (SF-36), and the dermatology-specific Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) are appropriate for assessing health-related quality of life (HRQL) in patients with hand eczema, and whether gender differences in HRQL could be detected. HRQL was affected by hand eczema, measured with both SF-36 and DLQI. The SF-36 showed more impaired HRQL for females than for males, in the mental health dimension, whereas no gender-related differences were detected with the DLQI. To compare the instruments we used factor analysis, with a polychoric correlation matrix as input, thus taking the ordinal aspect of the data into account. There was a high correlation between the instruments for physical health, but lower for mental health. In this context our interpretation of the factor analysis is that the SF-36 measures mental health better than the DLQI. The SF-36 therefore appears suitable for use in future studies for measuring HRQL, and gender differences in HRQL, in persons with reported hand eczema.

  10. 40 CFR 273.81 - Factors for petitions to include other wastes under 40 CFR part 273.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES (CONTINUED) STANDARDS FOR UNIVERSAL WASTE MANAGEMENT Petitions To Include... generic name to identify the waste category (e.g., batteries), the definition of universal waste in § 260..., and specific management standards proposed or referenced by the petitioner (e.g., waste management...

  11. Exploring factors influencing farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme to address climatic issues in agricultural sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Yahaya, Siti Rohani Binti; Rahman, Mahfuzur; Akhtar, Rulia

    2015-06-01

    This study empirically estimates farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in Pakistan's agricultural sectors. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed to determine a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues. The survey was conducted by distributing structured questionnaires among Pakistani farmers. The study found that 67 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme. However, several socioeconomic and motivational factors exert greater influence on their willingness to pay (WTP). This paper specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support attempts by policy makers to design an efficient adaptation framework for mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.

  12. Psychosocial stress factors, including the relationship with the coach, and their influence on acute and overuse injury risk in elite female football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensgaard, Anne Marte; Ivarsson, Andreas; Nilstad, Agnethe; Solstad, Bård Erlend; Steffen, Kathrin

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between specific types of stressors (eg, teammates, coach) and acute versus overuse injuries is not well understood. To examine the roles of different types of stressors as well as the effect of motivational climate on the occurrence of acute and overuse injuries. Players in the Norwegian elite female football league (n=193 players from 12 teams) participated in baseline screening tests prior to the 2009 competitive football season. As part of the screening, we included the Life Event Survey for Collegiate Athletes and the Perceived Motivational Climate in Sport Questionnaire (Norwegian short version). Acute and overuse time-loss injuries and exposure to training and matches were recorded prospectively in the football season using weekly text messaging. Data were analysed with Bayesian logistic regression analyses. Using Bayesian logistic regression analyses, we showed that perceived negative life event stress from teammates was associated with an increased risk of acute injuries (OR=1.23, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.48)). There was a credible positive association between perceived negative life event stress from the coach and the risk of overuse injuries (OR=1.21, 95% credibility interval (1.01 to 1.45)). Players who report teammates as a source of stress have a greater risk of sustaining an acute injury, while players reporting the coach as a source of stress are at greater risk of sustaining an overuse injury. Motivational climate did not relate to increased injury occurrence.

  13. Factors associated with a clinician's offer of screening HIV-positive patients for sexually transmitted infections, including syphilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, R; Fernando, I; MacDougall, M

    2011-06-01

    This retrospective study assessed whether Quality Improvement Scotland national standards for the sexual health care offered to HIV-positive individuals are being met by the Edinburgh genitourinary (GU) medicine clinic; specifically whether HIV-positive patients are offered: (a) sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening annually and (b) syphilis testing six-monthly. The study also reviewed what factors were associated with a clinician's offer of STI screening and syphilis testing. Of the 509 patients seen within the study period, case notes documented that 64% were offered STI screens, and 69% were offered syphilis testing, results consistent with audits of services elsewhere. Sexual orientation (P offer of STI screening, while gender (P offer of syphilis testing. Our results suggest that one explanation for clinicians failing to offer STI screens and syphilis serology testing is their (implicit) risk assessment that STI testing is not required in individual patients.

  14. A review on early gut maturation and colonization in pigs, including biological and dietary factors affecting gut homeostasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Everaert, Nadia; Van Cruchten, Steven; Weström, Björn

    2017-01-01

    During the prenatal, neonatal and post-weaning periods, the mammalian gastrointestinal tract undergoes various morphological and physiological changes alongside with an expansion of the immune system and microbial ecosystem. This review focuses on the time period before weaning and summarizes...... in digestive function coincides with development in both the adaptive and innate immune system. This secures a balanced immune response to the ingested milk-derived macromolecules, and colonizing bacteria. Husbandry and dietary interventions in early life appear to affect the development of multiple components...... and immunological maturation, as influenced by early microbial colonization and ingestion of dietary factors, is of utmost importance to identify management and feeding strategies to optimize intestinal health. We discuss some possible implications related to intrauterine growth restriction, and preterm delivery...

  15. PRINCIPAL'S LEADERSHIP STYLE, AS PERCEIVED BY TEACHERS, IN RELATION TO TEACHER'S EXPERIENCE FACTOR OF SCHOOL CLIMATE IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Pinkas

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The experience of the environment in which the activity is performed is a significant factor of the outcome of this activity, that is, the efficiency of the work and the degree of achieving the goal. Within the work environment, physical and social conditions can be observed. The first, which includes material and technical means, are mostly static, easily perceivable and measurable. Others, which include social relations, are much more susceptible to change, more difficult to perceive and measure, and their experience with different individuals within the same group can be more distinct. Although all members of the group participate in group dynamics and relationships, not all are equally relevant to these processes. Considering the position that carries the right and responsibility of setting up a vision and mission, setting goals, creating conditions for work, making decisions and providing feedback, the leader is in most cases crucial. This paper analyzes the role of elementary school principals in creating a school climate, as a non - material environment in which educational activity is carried out, and in this sense it is a specific group / work organization. An estimate was used to measure both variables, i.e. teacher's experience. The instruments used are Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire - MLQ (Avolio and Bass and School Level Environment Questionnaire - SLEQ (Johnson, Stevens and Zvoch. The survey was conducted in elementary schools in the wider city area of Tuzla, on a sample of 467 teachers and 25 principals. In statistical data processing, multiple regression (Ordinary least squares and direct square discriminatory analysis were applied. The obtained results point to the connection between the perceived leadership style of elementary school principals and the school climate experienced by teachers, especially in the field of innovation in teaching and mutual cooperation.

  16. Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

  17. A systematic review of Registered Nurses; experiences of the influence of workplace culture and climatic factors on nursing workloads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross-Walker, Cheryl; Rogers-Clark, Cath; Pearce, Susanne

    Nursing workload is an issue that effects both the recruitment and retention of nurses, and patient safety. Historically, measurement has focussed on the delivery of direct patient care and excluded workload of facilitating hands-on care and supporting the organisation via duties that reflect organisation cultural and climate needs. Qualitative research is appropriate to understand this complexity. To determine the best available evidence in relation to registered nurses experiences of workplace cultural and climatic factors that influence nursing workloads, in an acute health care setting. This review sought high quality studies which explored registered nurses' experiences of the influence of cultural and climatic factors on their workloads. Qualitative research studies and opinion-based text were considered. An extensive search of the literature was conducted to identify published and unpublished studies between January 1990 and June 2011 in English, and indexed in the following databases: CINAHL, Medline, Medline-In Process, PsychINFO, Emerald, Current Contents, TRIP, JSTOR Nursing Consult Psychology & Behavioural Sciences collections, Emerald Management Reviews, Emerald Full Text Journals, Embase, Dissertation Abstracts, ERIC, Proquest and MedNar, EBSCOhost, Science Direct, Wiley Interscience. Two independent reviewers (CRW and CRC), using appraisal tools from the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI), assessed fifteen articles; one was excluded. Data were extracted from included papers using standardised tools developed by the JBI. Data from qualitative studies and textual/opinion papers were meta-synthesised separately using standardised instruments. Data synthesis involved the pooling of findings, then grouped into categories on the basis of similarity of meaning. The categories were further aggregated into synthesised findings. 14 papers were identified as high quality and meeting the inclusion criteria. 81 findings were identified from the 10 qualitative research

  18. Quantifying the Impacts of Environmental Factors on Vegetation Dynamics over Climatic and Management Gradients of Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Dubovyk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Currently there is a lack of quantitative information regarding the driving factors of vegetation dynamics in post-Soviet Central Asia. Insufficient knowledge also exists concerning vegetation variability across sub-humid to arid climatic gradients as well as vegetation response to different land uses, from natural rangelands to intensively irrigated croplands. In this study, we analyzed the environmental drivers of vegetation dynamics in five Central Asian countries by coupling key vegetation parameter “overall greenness” derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series data, with its possible factors across various management and climatic gradients. We developed nine generalized least-squares random effect (GLS-RE models to analyze the relative impact of environmental factors on vegetation dynamics. The obtained results quantitatively indicated the extensive control of climatic factors on managed and unmanaged vegetation cover across Central Asia. The most diverse vegetation dynamics response to climatic variables was observed for “intensively managed irrigated croplands”. Almost no differences in response to these variables were detected for managed non-irrigated vegetation and unmanaged (natural vegetation across all countries. Natural vegetation and rainfed non-irrigated crop dynamics were principally associated with temperature and precipitation parameters. Variables related to temperature had the greatest relative effect on irrigated croplands and on vegetation cover within the mountainous zone. Further research should focus on incorporating the socio-economic factors discussed here in a similar analysis.

  19. Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.

    2008-01-01

    Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707

  20. Tile Low Rank Cholesky Factorization for Climate/Weather Modeling Applications on Manycore Architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Akbudak, Kadir; Ltaief, Hatem; Mikhalev, Aleksandr; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Covariance matrices are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. In particular, large covariance matrices arise from multivariate spatial data sets, for instance, in climate/weather modeling applications to improve prediction using statistical methods and spatial data. One of the most time-consuming computational steps consists in calculating the Cholesky factorization of the symmetric, positive-definite covariance matrix problem. The structure of such covariance matrices is also often data-sparse, in other words, effectively of low rank, though formally dense. While not typically globally of low rank, covariance matrices in which correlation decays with distance are nearly always hierarchically of low rank. While symmetry and positive definiteness should be, and nearly always are, exploited for performance purposes, exploiting low rank character in this context is very recent, and will be a key to solving these challenging problems at large-scale dimensions. The authors design a new and flexible tile row rank Cholesky factorization and propose a high performance implementation using OpenMP task-based programming model on various leading-edge manycore architectures. Performance comparisons and memory footprint saving on up to 200K×200K covariance matrix size show a gain of more than an order of magnitude for both metrics, against state-of-the-art open-source and vendor optimized numerical libraries, while preserving the numerical accuracy fidelity of the original model. This research represents an important milestone in enabling large-scale simulations for covariance-based scientific applications.

  1. The effects of air pollution and climatic factors on atmospheric corrosion of marble under field exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lan, Tran Thi Ngoc; Nishimura, Rokuro; Tsujino, Yoshio; Satoh, Yukihiro; Thi Phuong Thoa, Nguyen; Yokoi, Masayuki; Maeda, Yasuaki

    2005-01-01

    The atmospheric corrosion of marble was evaluated in terms of SO 2 concentration as air pollution and climatic factors such as rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and so on under the field exposure. Marble of calcite type (CaCO 3 ) was exposed to outdoor atmospheric environment with and without a rain shelter at four test sites in the southern part of Vietnam for 3-month, 1- and 2-year periods from July 2001 to September 2003. The thickness loss of marble was investigated gravimetrically. X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescent methods were applied to study corrosion products on marble. The corrosion product of marble was only gypsum (CaSO 4 . 2H 2 O) and was washed out by rain under the unsheltered exposure condition. It was found that the most substantial factors influencing the corrosion of marble were rainfall, SO 2 concentration in the air and relative humidity. Based on the results obtained, we estimated the dose-response functions for the atmospheric corrosion of marble in the southern part of Vietnam

  2. Tile Low Rank Cholesky Factorization for Climate/Weather Modeling Applications on Manycore Architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Akbudak, Kadir

    2017-05-11

    Covariance matrices are ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. In particular, large covariance matrices arise from multivariate spatial data sets, for instance, in climate/weather modeling applications to improve prediction using statistical methods and spatial data. One of the most time-consuming computational steps consists in calculating the Cholesky factorization of the symmetric, positive-definite covariance matrix problem. The structure of such covariance matrices is also often data-sparse, in other words, effectively of low rank, though formally dense. While not typically globally of low rank, covariance matrices in which correlation decays with distance are nearly always hierarchically of low rank. While symmetry and positive definiteness should be, and nearly always are, exploited for performance purposes, exploiting low rank character in this context is very recent, and will be a key to solving these challenging problems at large-scale dimensions. The authors design a new and flexible tile row rank Cholesky factorization and propose a high performance implementation using OpenMP task-based programming model on various leading-edge manycore architectures. Performance comparisons and memory footprint saving on up to 200K×200K covariance matrix size show a gain of more than an order of magnitude for both metrics, against state-of-the-art open-source and vendor optimized numerical libraries, while preserving the numerical accuracy fidelity of the original model. This research represents an important milestone in enabling large-scale simulations for covariance-based scientific applications.

  3. Including climate variability in determination of the optimum rate of N fertilizer application using a crop model: A case study for rainfed corn in eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesbah, M.; Pattey, E.; Jégo, G.; Geng, X.; Tremblay, N.; Didier, A.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying optimum nitrogen (N) application rate is essential for increasing agricultural production while limiting potential environmental contaminations caused by release of reactive N, especially for high demand N crops such as corn. The central question of N management is then how the optimum N rate is affected by climate variability for given soil. The experimental determination of optimum N rates involve the analyses of variance on the mean value of crop yield response to various N application rates used by factorial plot based experiments for a few years in several regions. This traditional approach has limitations to capture 1) the non-linear response of yield to N application rates due to large incremental N rates (often more than 40 kg N ha-1) and 2) the ecophysiological response of the crop to climate variability because of limited numbers of growing seasons considered. Modeling on the other hand, does not have such limitations and hence we use a crop model and propose a model-based methodology called Finding NEMO (N Ecophysiologically Modelled Optimum) to identify the optimum N rates for variable agro-climatic conditions and given soil properties. The performance of the methodology is illustrated using the STICS crop model adapted for rainfed corn in the Mixedwood Plains ecozone of eastern Canada (42.3oN 83oW-46.8oN 71oW) where more than 90% of Canadian corn is produced. The simulations were performed using small increment of preplant N application rate (10 kg N ha -1), long time series of daily climatic data (48 to 61 years) for 5 regions along the ecozone, and three contrasting soils per region. The results show that N recommendations should be region and soil specific. Soils with lower available water capacity required more N compared to soil with higher available water capacity. When N rates were at their ecophysiologically optimum level, 10 to 17 kg increase in dry yield could be achieved by adding 1 kg N. Expected yield also affected the optimum

  4. Reserve, thin form-factor, hypochlorite-based cells for powering portable systems: Manufacture (including MEMS processes), performance and characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardenas-Valencia, Andres M.; Langebrake, Larry [Center for Ocean Technology, University of South Florida, 140 Seventh Ave. S., St. Petersburg, FL (United States); Biver, Carl J. [Center for Ocean Technology, University of South Florida, 140 Seventh Ave. S., St. Petersburg, FL (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave. Tampa, FL (United States)

    2007-03-30

    This work focuses on fabrication routes and performance evaluation of thin form-factors, reserve cells, as a powering alternative for expendable and/or remotely operated systems. The catalytic decomposition of sodium hypochlorite solutions is revisited herein with two cost-effective anodes: zinc and aluminum. Aluminum, even though the most expensive of the utilized anodes, constituted cells with double the energy content (up to 55 Wh kg{sup -1}) than those fabricated with zinc. Even though the hypochlorite concentration in the solution limits the cells' operational life, attractive performances (1.0 V with a current of 10 mA) for the manufactured cells are obtained. It is shown that micro fabrication processes, allowing for close electrodes interspacing, provided high faradic and columbic efficiencies of up to 70 and 100%, respectively. Obtained specific energies (50-120 Wh kg{sup -1}) are in the same order of magnitude than batteries currently used for powering deployable systems. Experimental results show that a simple model that linearly relates over potentials and the electrical load, adequately describe all the cell designs. A mathematical model based on a kinetic-mechanistic scheme that relates the current output as a function of time agrees fairly well with results obtained activating cells with various concentrations of NaOCl solutions. (author)

  5. Effect of yoga practices on pulmonary function tests including transfer factor of lung for carbon monoxide (TLCO) in asthma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Savita; Soni, Ritu; Singh, K P; Tandon, O P

    2012-01-01

    Prana is the energy, when the self-energizing force embraces the body with extension and expansion and control, it is pranayama. It may affect the milieu at the bronchioles and the alveoli particularly at the alveolo-capillary membrane to facilitate diffusion and transport of gases. It may also increase oxygenation at tissue level. Aim of our study is to compare pulmonary functions and diffusion capacity in patients of bronchial asthma before and after yogic intervention of 2 months. Sixty stable asthmatic-patients were randomized into two groups i.e group 1 (Yoga training group) and group 2 (control group). Each group included thirty patients. Lung functions were recorded on all patients at baseline, and then after two months. Group 1 subjects showed a statistically significant improvement (Pincreased significantly. It was concluded that pranayama & yoga breathing and stretching postures are used to increase respiratory stamina, relax the chest muscles, expand the lungs, raise energy levels, and calm the body.

  6. Drivers of soil organic matter vulnerability to climate change, Part II: RothC modelling of carbon dynamics including radiocarbon data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Mirjam S.; Abiven, Samuel; González Domínguez, Beatriz R.; Hagedorn, Frank; Reisser, Moritz; Walthert, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Stephan; Niklaus, Pascal A.

    2016-04-01

    It is still largely unknown what drives the vulnerability of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to climate change, i.e. the likelihood of a soil to loose its SOC along with the change in environmental conditions. Our objective is to assess the SOC vulnerability of Swiss forest soils and identify its potential drivers: climate (temperature, soil moisture), soil (clay content, pH) and landscape (slope, aspect) properties. Fifty-four sites were selected for balanced spatial and driver magnitudes distribution. We measured the SOC characteristics (content and radiocarbon) and studied the C decomposition by laboratory soil incubations (details in Part I, abstract by B. González Domínguez). In order to assess the current SOC pool distribution and its radiocarbon signatures, we extended the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model with radiocarbon (14C) isotope modelling (RothCiso). The RothC model distinguishes four active SOC pools, decomposable and resistant plant material, microbial biomass and humified organic matter, and an inert SOC pool (Jenkinson 1990). The active pools are decomposed and mineralized to CO2 by first order kinetics. The RothCiso assigns all pools a 14C signature, based on the atmospheric 14C concentrations of the past century (plant C inputs) and their turnover. Currently we constrain the model with 14C signatures measured on the 54 fresh and their corresponding archived bulk soil samples, taken 12-24 years before. We were able to reproduce the measured radiocarbon concentrations of the SOC with the RothCiso and first results indicate, that the assumption of an inert SOC pool, that is radiocarbon dead, is not appropriate. In a second step we will compare the SOC mean residence time assessed by the two methodological approaches - incubation (C efflux based) and modelling (C stock based) - and relate it to the environmental drivers mentioned above. With the combination of the two methodological approaches and 14C analysis we hope to gain more insights into

  7. Multilevel Analysis of Trachomatous Trichiasis and Corneal Opacity in Nigeria: The Role of Environmental and Climatic Risk Factors on the Distribution of Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jennifer L; Sivasubramaniam, Selvaraj; Rabiu, Mansur M; Kyari, Fatima; Solomon, Anthony W; Gilbert, Clare

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of trachoma in Nigeria is spatially heterogeneous, with large-scale trends observed across the country and more local variation within areas. Relative contributions of individual and cluster-level risk factors to the geographic distribution of disease remain largely unknown. The primary aim of this analysis is to assess the relationship between climatic factors and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) and/or corneal opacity (CO) due to trachoma in Nigeria, while accounting for the effects of individual risk factors and spatial correlation. In addition, we explore the relative importance of variation in the risk of trichiasis and/or corneal opacity (TT/CO) at different levels. Data from the 2007 National Blindness and Visual Impairment Survey were used for this analysis, which included a nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years and above. Complete data were available from 304 clusters selected using a multi-stage stratified cluster-random sampling strategy. All participants (13,543 individuals) were interviewed and examined by an ophthalmologist for the presence or absence of TT and CO. In addition to field-collected data, remotely sensed climatic data were extracted for each cluster and used to fit Bayesian hierarchical logistic models to disease outcome. The risk of TT/CO was associated with factors at both the individual and cluster levels, with approximately 14% of the total variation attributed to the cluster level. Beyond established individual risk factors (age, gender and occupation), there was strong evidence that environmental/climatic factors at the cluster-level (lower precipitation, higher land surface temperature, higher mean annual temperature and rural classification) were also associated with a greater risk of TT/CO. This study establishes the importance of large-scale risk factors in the geographical distribution of TT/CO in Nigeria, supporting anecdotal evidence that environmental conditions are associated with increased

  8. Anthropogenic and climatic factors enhancing hypolimnetic anoxia in a temperate mountain lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-España, Javier; Mata, M. Pilar; Vegas, Juana; Morellón, Mario; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Salazar, Ángel; Yusta, Iñaki; Chaos, Aida; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Navas, Ana

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen depletion (temporal or permanent) in freshwater ecosystems is a widespread and globally important environmental problem. However, the factors behind increased hypolimnetic anoxia in lakes and reservoirs are often diverse and may involve processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we evaluate the combined effects of different anthropogenic pressures on the oxygen dynamics and water chemistry of Lake Enol, an emblematic mountain lake in Picos de Europa National Park (NW Spain). A multidisciplinary study conducted over a period of four years (2013-2016) indicates that the extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia has increased dramatically in recent years. The extent and duration of hypolimnetic anoxia is typical of meso-eutrophic systems, in contrast with the internal productivity of the lake, which remains oligo-mesotrophic and phosphorus-limited. This apparent contradiction is ascribed to the combination of different external pressures in the catchment, which have increased the input of allochthonous organic matter in recent times through enhanced erosion and sediment transport. The most important among these pressures appears to be cattle grazing, which affects not only the import of carbon and nutrients, but also the lake microbiology. The contribution of clear-cutting, runoff channelling, and tourism is comparatively less significant. The cumulative effects of these local human impacts are not only affecting the lake metabolism, but also the import of sulfate, nitrate- and ammonium-nitrogen, and metals (Zn). However, these local factors alone cannot explain entirely the observed oxygen deficit. Climatic factors (e.g., warmer and drier spring and autumn seasons) are also reducing oxygen levels in deep waters through a longer and increasingly steep thermal stratification. Global warming may indirectly increase anoxia in many other mountain lakes in the near future.

  9. Creating Democratic Class Rooms in Asian Contexts: The Influences of Individual and School Level Factors on Open Classroom Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Xiaoxue; Kennedy, Kerry J.; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: Literature indicates that open classroom climate (OCC) is a positive influence on civic outcomes. Few studies have explored factors that appear to facilitate OCC. Most research on OCC has focused on Western countries. The emphasis has been on individual student characteristics related to OCC with little attention made to school level…

  10. Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele

    2015-09-01

    The Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, with implications for Inuit communities widely documented. Youth have been identified as an at-risk population, with likely impacts on mental health and well-being. This study identifies and characterizes youth-specific protective factors that enhance well-being in light of a rapidly changing climate, and examines how climatic and environmental change challenges these. In-depth conversational interviews were conducted with youth aged 15-25 from the five communities of the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada: Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik, and Rigolet. Five key protective factors were identified as enhancing their mental health and well-being: being on the land; connecting to Inuit culture; strong communities; relationships with family and friends; and staying busy. Changing sea ice and weather conditions were widely reported to be compromising these protective factors by reducing access to the land, and increasing the danger of land-based activities. This study contributes to existing work on Northern climate change adaptation by identifying factors that enhance youth resilience and, if incorporated into adaptation strategies, may contribute to creating successful and effective adaptation responses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Climatic factors and community - associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus skin and soft-tissue infections - a time-series analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Sahoo, Soumyakanta; Marrone, Gaetano; Pathak, Ashish; Lundborg, Cecilia Stålsby; Tamhankar, Ashok J

    2014-08-29

    Skin and soft tissue infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus (SA-SSTIs) including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have experienced a significant surge all over the world. Changing climatic factors are affecting the global burden of dermatological infections and there is a lack of information on the association between climatic factors and MRSA infections. Therefore, association of temperature and relative humidity (RH) with occurrence of SA-SSTIs (n = 387) and also MRSA (n = 251) was monitored for 18 months in the outpatient clinic at a tertiary care hospital located in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. The Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method was used for antibiotic susceptibility testing. Time-series analysis was used to investigate the potential association of climatic factors (weekly averages of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and RH) with weekly incidence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA infections. The analysis showed that a combination of weekly average maximum temperature above 33 °C coinciding with weekly average RH ranging between 55% and 78%, is most favorable for the occurrence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA and within these parameters, each unit increase in occurrence of MRSA was associated with increase in weekly average maximum temperature of 1.7 °C (p = 0.044) and weekly average RH increase of 10% (p = 0.097).

  12. Climatic Factors and Community — Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Skin and Soft-Tissue Infections — A Time-Series Analysis Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krushna Chandra Sahoo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Skin and soft tissue infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus (SA-SSTIs including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA have experienced a significant surge all over the world. Changing climatic factors are affecting the global burden of dermatological infections and there is a lack of information on the association between climatic factors and MRSA infections. Therefore, association of temperature and relative humidity (RH with occurrence of SA-SSTIs (n = 387 and also MRSA (n = 251 was monitored for 18 months in the outpatient clinic at a tertiary care hospital located in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. The Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method was used for antibiotic susceptibility testing. Time-series analysis was used to investigate the potential association of climatic factors (weekly averages of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and RH with weekly incidence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA infections. The analysis showed that a combination of weekly average maximum temperature above 33 °C coinciding with weekly average RH ranging between 55% and 78%, is most favorable for the occurrence of SA-SSTIs and MRSA and within these parameters, each unit increase in occurrence of MRSA was associated with increase in weekly average maximum temperature of 1.7 °C (p = 0.044 and weekly average RH increase of 10% (p = 0.097.

  13. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sumon Kumar; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Mohammad Habibur Rahman; Das, Jui; Ahmed, Shawnawaz; Shahunja, K M; Nahar, Shamsun; Gibbons, Nora; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Rahman, Mustafizur; J Fuchs, George; Al Mamun, Abdullah; John Baker, Peter

    2017-01-01

    There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition) with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh. Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity). Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors. The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010). In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (pchildhood malnutrition is significantly associated with increasing rotavirus diarrhoea among under-5 children. Thus mass vaccination in addition to interventions directed at man-made modifiable predictors for prevention and control is warranted.

  14. Association between Childhood Diarrhoeal Incidence and Climatic Factors in Urban and Rural Settings in the Health District of Mbour, Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokhna Thiam

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We assessed the association between childhood diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors in rural and urban settings in the health district of Mbour in western Senegal. We used monthly diarrhoeal case records among children under five years registered in 24 health facilities over a four-year period (2011–2014. Climatic data (i.e., daily temperature, night temperature and rainfall for the same four-year period were obtained. We performed a negative binomial regression model to establish the relationship between monthly diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors of the same and the previous month. There were two annual peaks in diarrhoeal incidence: one during the cold dry season and one during the rainy season. We observed a positive association between diarrhoeal incidence and high average temperature of 36 °C and above and high cumulative monthly rainfall at 57 mm and above. The association between diarrhoeal incidence and temperature was stronger in rural compared to urban settings, while higher rainfall was associated with higher diarrhoeal incidence in the urban settings. Concluding, this study identified significant health–climate interactions and calls for effective preventive measures in the health district of Mbour. Particular attention should be paid to urban settings where diarrhoea was most common in order to reduce the high incidence in the context of climatic variability, which is expected to increase in urban areas in the face of global warming.

  15. Association between Childhood Diarrhoeal Incidence and Climatic Factors in Urban and Rural Settings in the Health District of Mbour, Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiam, Sokhna; Diène, Aminata N; Sy, Ibrahima; Winkler, Mirko S; Schindler, Christian; Ndione, Jacques A; Faye, Ousmane; Vounatsou, Penelope; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, Guéladio

    2017-09-12

    We assessed the association between childhood diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors in rural and urban settings in the health district of Mbour in western Senegal. We used monthly diarrhoeal case records among children under five years registered in 24 health facilities over a four-year period (2011-2014). Climatic data (i.e., daily temperature, night temperature and rainfall) for the same four-year period were obtained. We performed a negative binomial regression model to establish the relationship between monthly diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors of the same and the previous month. There were two annual peaks in diarrhoeal incidence: one during the cold dry season and one during the rainy season. We observed a positive association between diarrhoeal incidence and high average temperature of 36 °C and above and high cumulative monthly rainfall at 57 mm and above. The association between diarrhoeal incidence and temperature was stronger in rural compared to urban settings, while higher rainfall was associated with higher diarrhoeal incidence in the urban settings. Concluding, this study identified significant health-climate interactions and calls for effective preventive measures in the health district of Mbour. Particular attention should be paid to urban settings where diarrhoea was most common in order to reduce the high incidence in the context of climatic variability, which is expected to increase in urban areas in the face of global warming.

  16. Effects of climatic factors, drought risk and irrigation requirement on maize yield in the Northeast Farming Region of China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yin, Xiaogang; Jabloun, Mohamed; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Drought risk is considered to be among the main limiting factors for maize (Zea mays L.) production in the Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR). Maize yield data from 44 stations over the period 1961–2010 were combined with data from weather stations to evaluate the effects of climatic factors...... drought and intense rainfall illustrate the importance of further development of irrigation and drainage systems for ensuring the stability of maize production in NFR....

  17. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  18. Survey of Associations among Soil Properties and Climatic Factors on Weed Distribution in Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. in Kermanshah Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mozhgan veisi

    2016-11-01

    of different districts by rows. Data on weed communities and environmental factors of all districts were analyzed through with ordination methods like canonical correspondence analysis (CCA and weed species distribution and environmental factors displayed in ordination diagrams. These ordination methods were done with mean density of 29 abundant weed species for CCA using CANOCO (Version 4.5. Ordination plots were produced for both sampling sites and weed species associated with environmental factors. For CCA, we used site elevation, humidity for 10 years period, daily raining for a 10 years period. Soil characteristic included calcium, phosphor, potassium, nitrogen, sodium, magnesium, pH were determined. Sand, clay and silt in soils were measured and elevation of each field was gained by GPS. Results and discussion 162 weed species belonging to 33 plant families were identified in these fields. Multivariate analyses with canonical correspondence analysis (CCA showed that changes in the weed species distribution were due to soil characters (pH, Calcium, Magnesium, Phosphorus, Nitrogen, Sodium, Potassium, silt percent, clay and loam in soil tissue, cation exchange capacity, EC and environmental conditions during former years. The first and second RDA axes described 64% of variations in the weed populations affected by climatic factors. Winter wild oat (Avena ludoviciana L., ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud., wild mustard (Sinapis arvensis L. and canary seed (Phalaris brachystacys Link. in areas of high temperature and low altitude, had a wide distribution. High evaporation increased wild barely (Hordeum spontaneum C. Koch., Corn cleavers (Galium tricornutum Dandy. and Vetch (Vicia assyriaca Boiss. density during last decade. Where the soil nitrogen and phosphorus rates were high, Wild barely (Hordeum spontaneum C. Koch. density was found frequently in wheat fields of Kermanshah. In the wheat fields of Kermanshah, Bindweed (Convolvulus arvensis L. and wild safflower

  19. Influence of climatic and management factors on Eimeria infections in goats from semi-arid zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, A; González, J F; Rodríguez, E; Martín, S; Hernández, Y I; Almeida, R; Molina, J M

    2006-10-01

    A survey of Eimeria infections was performed in dairy goats and kids (<6 months old) of six farms from a dry desert area of Gran Canaria Island (Spain). The number of oocysts per gram of faeces (OPG) was determined by a modified McMaster technique over a total of 2,616 individual faecal samples taken from the rectum in monthly intervals. Eimeria oocysts were found in 96.1% of the samples with OPG ranging from 1 x 10(2) to 1.4 x 10(6). Kid goats had significantly (P < 0.001) higher OPG counts (46,496 +/- 5,228) than dairy females (2,225 +/- 287). Eight Eimeria species were identified, with Eimeria ninakohlyakimovae (30.0%), Eimeria arloingi (28.6%) and Eimeria alijevi (20.5%) being the most frequent species followed by Eimeria caprina (9.1%), Eimeria christenseni (4.5%), Eimeria jolchijevi (3.4%), Eimeria caprovina (3.2%) and Eimeria hirci (0.7%). Although significant differences were observed among goat groups and herds, the eight species were present in the six farms in both dairy goats and kids. The intensity of oocysts shedding was related to some factors such as the size of the herd and was further influenced by the prevailing climatic conditions of the area. The highest OPG counts were recorded during the hot season in dairy goats and close to weaning time in kids reared in small farms having no prophylactic treatments against eimeriosis.

  20. Influence of climatic factors and pollution on the atmospheric corrosion of steels. Laboratory measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muylder, Jean van; Pourbaix, Marcel

    1977-01-01

    The influence of climatic and polluting factors on the atmospheric corrosion of four steels has been examined in the laboratory by an original accelerated electrochemical testing method. This research has led notably to the following conclusions: the corrosion behavior of the steels very much depends on the chloride- and SO 2 -contents of the rain water, as well as on the temperature of the metal during the drying periods. The best patinas have been obtained by submitting the steel successively to the corroding action of a solution of bisulphite and to the alternate actions of non-polluted rains and of drying, preferably at about 60 0 C. As a result of this, the formation of a protective patina may be accelerated by different methods. The relative merits of different steels under different conditions of atmospheric exposure may be predetermined by laboratory tests lasting several weeks. It is useful, when exposing steels in natural exposure sites, to measure as often as feasible the electrode potentials and the temperature of the steel specimens

  1. Effects of Environmental Factors on the Disinfection Performance of a Wastewater Stabilization Pond Operated in a Temperate Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Liu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Treatment in a wastewater stabilization pond (WSP relies on natural purification processes, which can be sensitive to both location and climate. This study investigated the effects of three environmental factors, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO and temperature, on disinfection efficiency in a WSP system consisting of three facultative cells, and operated in a temperate climate region, in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Indicator organism (Escherichia coli (E. coli removal in WSP systems is driven by a combination of different factors. Elevated pH and DO concentrations, which are attributed to the presence of algae, are important factors for effective disinfection. Therefore, the presence of algae in natural wastewater treatment systems can contribute appreciably to disinfection. Consequently, based on algal concentrations, removal efficiencies of pathogenic microorganisms during wastewater treatment over the course of a year can be highly variable, where higher removal efficiencies would be expected in summer and fall seasons.

  2. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

  3. Chicago's urban forest ecosystem: Results of the Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project. (Includes executive summary). Forest Service general technical report (Final)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, E.G.; Nowak, D.J.; Rowntree, R.A.

    1994-06-01

    Results of the 3-year Chicago Urban Forest Climate Project indicate that there are an estimated 50.8 million trees in the Chicago area of Cook and DuPage Counties; 66 percent of these trees rated in good or excellent condition. During 1991, trees in the Chicago area removed an estimated 6,145 tons of air pollutants, providing air cleansing valued at $9.2 million dollars. These trees also sequester approximately 155,000 tons of carbon per year, and provide residential heating and cooling energy savings that, in turn, reduce carbon emissions from power plants by about 12,600 tons annually. Shade, lower summer air temperatures, and a reduction in windspeed associated with increasing tree cover by 10 percent can lower total heating and cooling energy use by 5 to 10 percent annually ($50 to $90 per dwelling unit). The projected net present value of investment in planting and care of 95,000 trees in Chicago is $38 million ($402 per planted tree), indicating that the long-term benefits of trees are more than twice their costs

  4. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  5. Carbon Storage of Forest Vegetation in China and its Relationship with Climatic Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, M.; Zhou, Guang-Sheng

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of forest vegetation carbon storage in China varied due to different methods used in the assessments. In this paper, we estimated the forest vegetation carbon storage from the Fourth Forest Inventory Data (FFID) in China using a modified volume-derived method. Results showed that total carbon storage and mean carbon density of forest vegetation in China were 3.8 Pg C (about 1.1% of the global vegetation carbon stock) and 41.32 Mg/ha, respectively. In addition, based on linear multiple regression equation and factor analysis method, we analyzed contributions of biotic and abiotic factors (including mean forest age, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and altitude) to forest carbon storage. Our results indicated that forest vegetation carbon storage was more sensitive to changes of mean annual temperature than other factors, suggesting that global warming would seriously affect the forest carbon storage

  6. A longitudinal study of mental health symptoms in young prisoners: exploring the influence of personal factors and the correctional climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Leonel C; Endrass, Jérôme; Rossegger, Astrid; Dirkzwager, Anja J E

    2016-04-06

    Despite the high prevalence rate of mental health problems among young prisoners, little is known about the longitudinal course and covariates of their mental health symptoms during incarceration, especially the influence of the correctional climate. The current study aimed: (1) to examine changes in young prisoners' mental health symptoms during incarceration, (2) to identify personal factors associated with their mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate, and (3) to test the incremental effect of perceptions of the correctional climate on mental health symptoms. Data were obtained from a sample of 75 youths (aged 17 to 22 years) detained in a Portuguese young offender prison. Data were gathered 1, 3, and 6 months after their admission in this facility. Socio-demographic, clinical and criminological variables were collected. Mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate were assessed through self-report assessment tools. Linear and logistic (multi-level) regressions and tests for differences between means were performed to analyze the data. Overall, mental health symptoms marginally declined by the sixth month in prison. Prisoners with a history of mental health treatment were more likely to have increased symptoms. Higher levels of mental health symptoms were associated with a history of mental health treatment, remand status, and a lower educational level. Better perceptions of the correctional climate were associated with Black race and participation in prison activities. A negative perception of the correctional climate was the strongest covariate of young prisoners' mental health symptoms and had incremental validity over that of personal variables. The results highlight that both characteristics of the prisoners and of the prison environment influence young prisoners' mental health. Prison management can try to reduce young prisoners' mental health problems by developing scientific procedures for their mental

  7. Variability of photosynthetic parameters of Pinus sibirica Du Tour needles under changing climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.P. Zotikova

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The air temperature and relative humidity and the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation are the basic ecological factors determining geographical distribution of a species. Wood plant adaptation depends on the intensity of physiological and biochemicalprocesses of plants as a response to changing environmental factors. Investigations to reveal (detect the variability of modification andgenetic components of the photosynthetic parameters in needles of the Siberian cedar (Pinus sibirica Du Tour mountain ecotypes, distributed in central part of the Altai Mountains, were carried out. Also, the survey was extended to some experiments with these ecotypes introduced to mild climate and flat regions from south-western of Siberia. The length and thickness of needles, the size of chloroplasts, content of the photosynthetic pigments, and the functional activity of chloroplastsat the level of photo system II were the evaluated traits. Growing under mountainous conditions (at about 2000m elevation, the two-year-old needles were shorter and thicker and contained very large in size chloroplasts while the content of chlorophylls and carotinoids was twice lower than that in the local ecotype growing in the lowlands. On the other hand, more green and yellow pigments were found in needles of mountain ecotypes planted in the lowlands compared to the local lowland ectype trees. A decrease in pool of the photosynthetic pigments in the highlands ecotypes is probably due to decreased biosynthesis andincreased photo-destruction caused by severe light and temperature conditions. These parameters are likely to be associated withmodifications due to intense insolation, low temperature, ozone concentration, UV radiation, and other negative factors that are morepronounced at high elevation. Despite the large pool of accumulated photosynthetic pigments, the functional activity of chloroplasts in themountain ecotype at the level

  8. Climate stories: Why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharman, Amelia; Howarth, Candice

    2017-10-01

    Public perceptions of the climate debate predominantly frame the key actors as climate scientists versus sceptical voices; however, it is unclear why climate scientists and sceptical voices choose to participate in this antagonistic and polarised public battle. A narrative interview approach is used to better understand the underlying rationales behind 22 climate scientists' and sceptical voices' engagement in the climate debate, potential commonalities, as well as each actor's ability to be critically self-reflexive. Several overlapping rationales are identified including a sense of duty to publicly engage, agreement that complete certainty about the complex assemblage of climate change is unattainable and that political factors are central to the climate debate. We argue that a focus on potential overlaps in perceptions and rationales as well as the ability to be critically self-reflexive may encourage constructive discussion among actors previously engaged in purposefully antagonistic exchange on climate change.

  9. Global map of solar power production efficiency, considering micro climate factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanpour Adeh, E.; Higgins, C. W.

    2017-12-01

    Natural resources degradation and greenhouse gas emissions are creating a global crisis. Renewable energy is the most reliable option to mitigate this environmental dilemma. Abundancy of solar energy makes it highly attractive source of electricity. The existing global spatial maps of available solar energy are created with various models which consider the irradiation, latitude, cloud cover, elevation, shading and aerosols, and neglect the influence of local meteorological conditions. In this research, the influences of microclimatological variables on solar energy productivity were investigated with an in-field study at the Rabbit Hills solar arrays near Oregon State University. The local studies were extended to a global level, where global maps of solar power were produced, taking the micro climate variables into account. These variables included: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation. The energy balance approach was used to synthesize the data and compute the efficiencies. The results confirmed that the solar power efficiency can be directly affected by the air temperature and wind speed.

  10. Climate variability, perceptions and political ecology: Factors influencing changes in pesticide use over 30 years by Zimbabwean smallholder cotton producers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinyemba, Cliff; Archer, Emma; Rother, Hanna-Andrea

    2018-01-01

    Pesticides represent a potential public health hazard of note in farming communities. Accumulating evidence indicates that some pesticides used in agriculture act as hormone disrupters, with the potential to result in chronic health effects. Despite such a growing evidence base, pesticides remain the preferred method of pest control in agriculture worldwide. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, usage is on the increase. This qualitative study assessed changes in the usage of pesticides by Zimbabwean smallholder cotton farmers in the past 30 years. Farmers reported an increase in the usage of pesticides, specifically insecticides, since the early 1980s. An increase in pest populations was also reported. The findings suggested a bi-directional causal relationship between the increase in pest population and the increase in pesticide use. Factors which emerged to have collectively impacted on the changes include climate variability, limited agency on the part of farmers, power dynamics involving the government and private cotton companies and farmers' perceptions and practices. An Integrated Pest Management Policy for Zimbabwe is recommended to facilitate integration of chemical controls with a broad range of other pest control tactics. Continuous farmer education and awareness raising is further recommended, since farmers' perceptions can influence their practices.

  11. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  12. Understanding climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    In this article the following question is answered. What is the climate? What factors do determine our climate? What is solar radiation? How does solar radiation relate to the earth's energy? What is greenhouse effect? What role does the greenhouse effect play in the global ecosystem? How does the water cycle affect climate? What is drought? What role do oceans play in influencing climate. (author)

  13. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; King, Andrew; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Wada, Yoshihide; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Haarsma, Rein; Haustein, Karsten; Uhe, Peter; van Aalst, Maarten; hide

    2015-01-01

    Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

  14. Determination of the Effect of Changes in Climatic Factors on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    ABSTRACT: The study of the response of soil to climate change is of fundamental importance for .... environmental interactions, societal goals as well as ..... temperature increases due to global warming, O.M ... Adsorption and Migration.

  15. Determination of point isotropic buildup factors of gamma rays including incoherent and coherent scattering for aluminum, iron, lead, and water by discrete ordinates method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitsos, S.; Assad, A.; Diop, C.M.; Nimal, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    Exposure and energy absorption buildup factors for aluminum, iron, lead, and water are calculated by the SNID discrete ordinates code for an isotropic point source in a homogeneous medium. The calculation of the buildup factors takes into account the effects of both bound-electron Compton (incoherent) and coherent (Rayleigh) scattering. A comparison with buildup factors from the literature shows that these two effects greatly increase the buildup factors for energies below a few hundred kilo-electron-volts, and thus the new results are improved relative to the experiment. This greater accuracy is due to the increase in the linear attenuation coefficient, which leads to the calculation of the buildup factors for a mean free path with a smaller shield thickness. On the other hand, for the same shield thickness, exposure increases when only incoherent scattering is included and decreases when only coherent scattering is included, so that the exposure finally decreases when both effects are included. Great care must also be taken when checking the approximations for gamma-ray deep-penetration transport calculations, as well as for the cross-section treatment and origin

  16. Analysis of forecasting malaria case with climatic factors as predictor in Mandailing Natal Regency: a time series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aulia, D.; Ayu, S. F.; Matondang, A.

    2018-01-01

    Malaria is the most contagious global concern. As a public health problem with outbreaks, affect the quality of life and economy, also could lead to death. Therefore, this research is to forecast malaria cases with climatic factors as predictors in Mandailing Natal Regency. The total number of positive malaria cases on January 2008 to December 2016 were taken from health department of Mandailing Natal Regency. Climates data such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature were taken from Center of Statistic Department of Mandailing Natal Regency. E-views ver. 9 is used to analyze this study. Autoregressive integrated average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 is the best model to explain the 67,2% variability data in time series study. Rainfall (P value = 0.0005), temperature (P value = 0,0029) and humidity (P value = 0.0001) are significant predictors for malaria transmission. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) in November and March shows peak for malaria cases.

  17. THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL, PETROGRAPHIC AND CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE SLOPE STABILITY IN THE OPEN CAST MINE OF GRADNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Tomašić

    1992-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of a complexity of interrelated structural, petrologic and climatic factors that considerably affect the instabilities in the open cast mine of Gradna, near Samobor. The instabilities provoke the slope failures such as slides and slumps of rock material. During the protracted periodical investigations, the relationship among the factors of regional geology, tectonics, structural geology, petrography, engineering geology, rock mechanics and the rock mining technology was observed in the area. The local control of hydrogeologic properties, as well as climatic fluctuations of temperature and precipitation on the slope stability, was also recognized. It turned out that the structural relationships, characteristic of the manifold cataclased dolomite, stimulated the development of local instabilities, particularly during the period of low temperatures affecting the process of ground-water accumulation. When the temperatures are worm, the ground-water circulation is slow, exerting only the small-scale influence on the local instabilities (the paper is published in Croatian.

  18. Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

    2015-01-01

    Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the

  19. Responses of Vegetation Growth to Climatic Factors in Shule River Basin in Northwest China: A Panel Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinghui Qi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The vegetation response to climatic factors is a hot topic in global change research. However, research on vegetation in Shule River Basin, which is a typical arid region in northwest China, is still limited, especially at micro scale. On the basis of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data and daily meteorological data, employing panel data models and other mathematical models, the aim of this paper is to reveal the interactive relationship between vegetation variation and climatic factors in Shule River Basin. Results show that there is a widespread greening trend in the whole basin during 2000–2015, and 80.28% of greening areas (areas with vegetation improvement are distributed over upstream region, but the maximum vegetation variation appears in downstream area. The effects of climate change on NDVI lag about half to one month. The parameters estimated using panel data models indicate that precipitation and accumulated temperature have positive contribution to NDVI. With every 1-mm increase in rainfall, NDVI increases by around 0.223‰ in upstream area and 0.6‰ in downstream area. With every 1-°C increase in accumulated temperature, NDVI increases by around 0.241‰ in upstream area and 0.174‰ in downstream area. Responses of NDVI to climatic factors are more sensitive when these factors are limiting than when they are not limiting. NDVI variation has performance in two seasonal and inter-annual directions, and the range of seasonal change is far more than that of inter-annual change. The inverted U-shaped curve of the variable intercepts reflects the seasonal change. Our results might provide some scientific basis for the comprehensive basin management.

  20. Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuntao Bai

    Full Text Available China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS, constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5 and rainfall (with 2 lagged months were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

  1. Effect of Climate and Management Factors on Potential and Gap of Wheat Yield in Iran with Using WOFOST Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2017-10-01

    intensification. We estimated a stochastic frontier production function to calculate global datasets of maximum attainable grain yields, yield gaps, and efficiencies of grain production at. Applying a stochastic frontier production function facilitates estimating the yield gap based on the actual grain yield data only, instead of using actual and potential grain yield data from different sources. Therefore, the method allows for a robust and consistent analysis of the yield gap. The factors determining the yield gap are quantified at both global and regional scales. For this purpose, climatic information and wheat yield of different provinces were obtained from Iran meteorological organization and Agriculture Jahade organization, respectively. Wheat potential yield in different provinces was simulated by WOFOST model. Wheat gap was gained by difference between actual and potential yield in different provinces. Relative share of climatic variables in potential yield and also relative share of management variables included irrigation, fertilizer application, mechanization, pesticide application and manure in wheat yield gap was calculated by frontier production function. Results and Discussion The results showed that the effect of precipitation and radiation on wheat potential yield was positive and the impact of temperature was negative. Precipitation had the highest impact on wheat potential yield among other climatic variables. The range of wheat yield gap was from 1646 to 4470 kg ha-1 and 29 to 58% in Iran. Generally, the effect of all management variables on wheat yield gap was negative so that wheat yield gap was reduced by improving of these variables. Among studied management variables, irrigation had the highest effect on yield gap reduction, especially in dry-warm climate and fertilizer application was the second factor which had high effect on yield gap reduction. Therefore, to reduce wheat yield gap in Iran, irrigation management and fertilizer application should be

  2. Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

    2017-12-01

    Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

  3. Spatiotemporal trends and climatic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shandong Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Qun Fang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it

  4. [Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

    2011-02-01

    Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural

  5. Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan

    2015-01-01

    Background/Objectives Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. Methods We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. Results The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. Conclusion In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a

  6. Studies on the Effects of Climatic Factors on Dryland Wheat Grain Yield in Maragheh Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Feiziasl

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In order to study the effects of climate variables on rainfed wheat grain yield, climate data and wheat yield for 10 years (1995-2005 collected from Dryland Agricultural Research Institute (DARI in Maragheh as the main station in cold and semi-cold areas. Collected data were analyzed by correlation coefficient, simple regression, stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that relationships between grain yield with average relative humidity and total rainfall of growing season was positive and significant at 5% and 1% probabilities, respectively. However, evaluation between grain yield with sunny hours and class A pan evaporation was negative and significant (p

  7. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  8. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change Factors on Freshwater Eutrophication: Implications for Research and Countermeasures of Water Management in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Xia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Water eutrophication has become one of the most serious aquatic environmental problems around the world. More and more research has indicated climate change as a major natural factor that will lead to the acceleration of eutrophication in rivers and lakes. However, understanding the mechanism of climate change’s effect on water eutrophication is difficult due to the uncertainties caused by its complex, non-linear process. There is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of future temperature changes, and how these will drive eutrophication in water bodies at regional scales under the effect of human activities. This review collects the existing international and domestic literature from the last 10 years, discussing the most sensitive factors of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar radiation and analyzing their interaction with water eutrophication. Case studies of serious eutrophication and algal bloom problems in China are discussed to further demonstrate the conclusion. Finally, adaptation countermeasures and related implications are proposed in order to foster the development of sustainability strategies for water management in China.

  9. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  10. Climatic factors directly impact the volatile organic compound fingerprint in green Arabica coffee bean as well as coffee beverage quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, B; Boulanger, R; Dussert, S; Ribeyre, F; Berthiot, L; Descroix, F; Joët, T

    2012-12-15

    Coffee grown at high elevations fetches a better price than that grown in lowland regions. This study was aimed at determining whether climatic conditions during bean development affected sensory perception of the coffee beverage and combinations of volatile compounds in green coffee. Green coffee samples from 16 plots representative of the broad range of climatic variations in Réunion Island were compared by sensory analysis. Volatiles were extracted by solid phase micro-extraction and the volatile compounds were analysed by GC-MS. The results revealed that, among the climatic factors, the mean air temperature during seed development greatly influenced the sensory profile. Positive quality attributes such as acidity, fruity character and flavour quality were correlated and typical of coffees produced at cool climates. Two volatile compounds (ethanal and acetone) were identified as indicators of these cool temperatures. Among detected volatiles, most of the alcohols, aldehydes, hydrocarbons and ketones appeared to be positively linked to elevated temperatures and high solar radiation, while the sensory profiles displayed major defects (i.e. green, earthy flavour). Two alcohols (butan-1,3-diol and butan-2,3-diol) were closely correlated with a reduction in aromatic quality, acidity and an increase in earthy and green flavours. We assumed that high temperatures induce accumulation of these compounds in green coffee, and would be detected as off-flavours, even after roasting. Climate change, which generally involves a substantial increase in average temperatures in mountainous tropical regions, could be expected to have a negative impact on coffee quality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over 25 Years (1989–2013) in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and ...

  12. Life stories of people with rheumatoid arthritis who retired early: how gender and other contextual factors shaped their everyday activities, including paid work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamm, T A; Machold, K P; Smolen, J; Prodinger, B

    2010-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to explore how contextual factors affect the everyday activities of women and men with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as evident in their life stories. Fifteen people with RA, who had retired early due to the disease, were interviewed up to three times, according to a narrative biographic interview style. The life stories of the participants, which were reconstructed from the biographical data and from the transcribed 'told story' were analysed from the perspective of contextual factors, including personal and environmental factors. The rigour and accuracy of the analysis were enhanced by reflexivity and peer-review of the results. The life stories of the participants in this study reflected how contextual factors (such as gender, the healthcare system, the support of families and social and cultural values) shaped their everyday activities. In a society such as in Austria, which is based on traditional patriarchal values, men were presented with difficulties in developing a non-paid-work-related role. For women, if paid work had to be given up, they were more likely to engage in alternative challenging activities which enabled them to develop reflective skills, which in turn contributed to a positive and enriching perspective on their life stories. Health professionals may thus use some of the women's strategies to help men. Interventions by health professionals in people with RA may benefit from an approach sensitive to personal and environmental factors.

  13. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  14. Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1). A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration-environment relationship was identified.

  15. Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyan Cai

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1. A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration–environment relationship was identified.

  16. Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, J. M.; Grau, J. B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.; Cisneros, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such "Climate change" is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China …, and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical

  17. batman Interacts with polycomb and trithorax group genes and encodes a BTB/POZ protein that is included in a complex containing GAGA factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faucheux, M; Roignant, J-Y; Netter, S; Charollais, J; Antoniewski, C; Théodore, L

    2003-02-01

    Polycomb and trithorax group genes maintain the appropriate repressed or activated state of homeotic gene expression throughout Drosophila melanogaster development. We have previously identified the batman gene as a Polycomb group candidate since its function is necessary for the repression of Sex combs reduced. However, our present genetic analysis indicates functions of batman in both activation and repression of homeotic genes. The 127-amino-acid Batman protein is almost reduced to a BTB/POZ domain, an evolutionary conserved protein-protein interaction domain found in a large protein family. We show that this domain is involved in the interaction between Batman and the DNA binding GAGA factor encoded by the Trithorax-like gene. The GAGA factor and Batman codistribute on polytene chromosomes, coimmunoprecipitate from nuclear embryonic and larval extracts, and interact in the yeast two-hybrid assay. Batman, together with the GAGA factor, binds to MHS-70, a 70-bp fragment of the bithoraxoid Polycomb response element. This binding, like that of the GAGA factor, requires the presence of d(GA)n sequences. Together, our results suggest that batman belongs to a subset of the Polycomb/trithorax group of genes that includes Trithorax-like, whose products are involved in both activation and repression of homeotic genes.

  18. ON THE PART OF GEOLOGICAL FACTORS IN THE FORMATION OF EARTH'S CLIMATE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslanishvili, N.; Suladze, A.

    2008-01-01

    It is assumed that orbital and endogenous/depth processes are likely to be responsible for climatic changes on the Earth (global warming, thinning of ozon screen, aridity etc.). This assumption is attested by the fact that some deposits of mineral resources (coal, phosphorites, rock salt, bauxites etc.) may be connected directly with paleo- and present climatic zones. Based on processing of statistical data, there were plotted the graphs representing the number and the intensity of eruptions of volcanoes over the period of 1840-1998. When these plots are compared with the climatological data, it is evident that there is a functional (linear) relation between the global rise in ambient temperature and the volcanic activity. Therefore, a widely spread, but not well-reasoned, notation about technogenic-anthropogenic causes of global warming and the adequacy of measures taken in this direction are open to question. (author)

  19. Intergenerational Transmission of Family Factors: Parenting Styles, Attachment Styles & Family Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    میرمحمدباقر آزادموسوی

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to examine the relationship between parental styles (authoritative, permissive, authoritarian and neglectful, attachment styles (secure, avoidant and ambivalent & family climate (hot and cold of two generations. Subjects were 220 (110 boy students of third class of secondary schools of two districts of Qazvin, and 110 parents who were selected via cluster sampling. In this study, Schaffer,s parenting questionnaires styles (Naqashian, 1358 and Collins and Read,s attachment (Collins & Read, 1990 were used as measures for collecting required data. Analyzes were carried out using simple linear regression, pearson correlation and chi-square. Results revealed that parenting styles, attachment styles and family climate of parents, predict same variables in children as second generation.

  20. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from organic and conventional cereal-based cropping systems under different management, soil and climate factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doltra, J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Báez, D

    2015-01-01

    Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture should be assessed across cropping systems and agroclimatic regions. In this study, we investigate the ability of the FASSET model to analyze differences in the magnitude of N2O emissions due to soil, climate and management factors in cereal...... on the seasonal soil N2O fluxes than the environmental factors. Overall, in its current version FASSET reproduced the effects of the different factors investigated on the cumulative seasonal soil N2O emissions but temporally it overestimated emissions from nitrification and denitrification on particular days when...... soil operations, ploughing or fertilization, took place. The errors associated with simulated daily soil N2O fluxes increased with the magnitude of the emissions. For resolving causes of differences in simulated and measured fluxes more intensive and temporally detailed measurements of N2O fluxes...

  1. Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into Decision Support for Strategic Planning in Wildland Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Morehouse; Gregg Garfin; Timothy Brown; Thomas W. Swetnam

    2006-01-01

    An El Niño winter in 1998-99, followed by a strong La Niña winter in 1999- 2000, set the stage for potentially large wildfires in the southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern forests of the United States. Researchers at the University of Arizona organized a three-day workshop to discuss the relationship between synoptic scale climate conditions and wildland fire...

  2. Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Christopher L. Teke, Major, USAF Major...the science behind severe weather occurrences and climate zone. Chapter 3 further details the methodology used in the analysis and sets the stage... actuarial estimates and should be thought of as insurance premiums, and ought to remain a budgeted cost if a base stays open. In contrast, if a base is

  3. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, J.P.; Carlson, L.W.

    1990-01-01

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  4. Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amine Toumi

    Full Text Available Old world Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL is a vector-borne human disease caused by Leishmania major, a unicellular eukaryotic parasite transmitted by pool blood-feeding sand flies mainly to wild rodents, such as Psammomys obesus. The human beings who share the rodent and sand fly habitats can be subverted as both sand fly blood resource. ZCL is endemic in the Middle East, Central Asia, Subsaharan and North Africa. Like other vector-borne diseases, the incidence of ZCL displayed by humans varies with environmental and climate factors. However, so far no study has addressed the temporal dynamics or the impact of climate factors on the ZCL risk.Seasonality during the same epidemiologic year and interval between ZCL epidemics ranging from 4 to 7 years were demonstrated. Models showed that ZCL incidence is raising i by 1.8% (95% confidence intervals CI:0.0-3.6% when there is 1 mm increase in the rainfall lagged by 12 to 14 months ii by 5.0% (95% CI: 0.8-9.4% when there is a 1% increase in humidity from July to September in the same epidemiologic year.Higher rainfall is expected to result in increased density of chenopods, a halophytic plant that constitutes the exclusive food of Psammomys obesus. Consequently, following a high density of Psammomys obesus, the pool of Leishmania major transmissible from the rodents to blood-feeding female sand flies could lead to a higher probability of transmission to humans over the next season. These findings provide the evidence that ZCL is highly influenced by climate factors that could affect both Psammomys obesus and the sand fly population densities.

  5. Field measurement and analysis of climatic factors affecting dune mobility near Grand Falls on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogle, Rian; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Vogel, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Aeolian sand covers extensive areas of the Navajo Nation in the southwestern United States. Much of this sand is currently stabilized by vegetation, although many drier parts of these Native lands also have active and partly active dunes. Current prolonged drought conditions that started in the mid-1990s are producing significant changes in dune mobility. Reactivation of regional aeolian deposits due to drought or increasing aridity from rising temperatures resulting from climate change could have serious consequences for human and animal populations, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure. To understand and document the current and future potential for mobility, seasonally repeated surveys were used to track the location of multiple active barchan dunes. By utilizing Real-Time Kinematic GPS field surveys and simultaneously collecting in-situ meteorological data, it is possible to examine climatic parameters and seasonal variations that affect dune mobility and their relative influences. Through analysis of the recorded data, we examined the fit of various climate parameters, and demonstrate that under the current prolonged drought, wind power is the dominant factor controlling dune mobility.

  6. Environmental factors exert strong control over the climate-growth relationships of Picea abies in Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Altman, Jan; Fibich, Pavel; Šantrůčková, H.; Doležal, Jiří; Štěpánek, Petr; Kopáček, Jiří; Hůnová, I.; Oulehle, F.; Tumajer, J.; Cienciala, E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 609, 31 December 2017 (2017), s. 506-516 ISSN 0048-9697 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR(CZ) GA17-07378S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:67179843 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Tree rings * Air pollution * Climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour; EH - Ecology, Behaviour (UEK-B); EH - Ecology, Behaviour (BC-A) OBOR OECD: Ecology; Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) (BC-A); Ecology (UEK-B) Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016

  7. Risk Factors for Pressure Ulcers Including Suspected Deep Tissue Injury in Nursing Home Facility Residents: Analysis of National Minimum Data Set 3.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Hyochol; Cowan, Linda; Garvan, Cynthia; Lyon, Debra; Stechmiller, Joyce

    2016-04-01

    To provide information on risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home residents in the United States. This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Examine the literature related to risk factors for the development of PrUs.2. Compare risk factors associated with the prevalence of PrUs and sDTI from the revised Minimum Data Set 3.0 2012 using a modified Defloor's conceptual model of PrUs as a theoretical framework. This study aims to characterize and compare risk factors associated with pressure ulcers (PrUs), including suspected deep tissue injury (sDTI), in nursing home (NH) residents in the United States. Secondary analysis of the 2012 Minimum Data Set (MDS 3.0). Medicare- or Medicaid-certified NHs in the United States. Nursing home residents (n = 2,936,146) 18 years or older with complete PrU data, who received comprehensive assessments from January to December 2012. Pressure ulcer by stage was the outcome variable. Explanatory variables (age, gender, race and ethnicity, body mass index, skin integrity, system failure, disease, infection, mobility, and cognition) from the MDS 3.0 were aligned with the 4 elements of Defloor's conceptual model: compressive forces, shearing forces, tissue tolerance for pressure, and tissue tolerance for oxygen. Of 2,936,146 NH residents who had complete data for PrU, 89.9% had no PrU; 8.4% had a Stage 2, 3, or 4 or unstagable PrU; and 1.7% had an sDTI. The MDS variables corresponding to the 4 elements of Defloor's model were significantly predictive of both PrU and sDTI. Black residents had the highest risk of any-stage PrU, and Hispanic residents had the highest risk of sDTI. Skin integrity, system failure, infection, and disease risk factors had larger effect sizes for sDTI than for other PrU stages

  8. Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

    2015-01-01

    Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.

  9. Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Effects: A Farm Level Study in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Nasir Uddin

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Offering a case study of coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the adaptation of agriculturalists to degrading environmental conditions likely to be caused or exacerbated under global climate change. It examines four central components: (1 the rate of self-reported adoption of adaptive mechanisms (coping strategies as a result of changes in climate; (2 ranking the potential coping strategies based on their perceived importance to agricultural enterprises; (3 identification the socio-economic factors associated with adoption of coping strategies, and (4 ranking potential constraints to adoption of coping strategies based on farmers’ reporting on the degree to which they face these constraints. As a preliminary matter, this paper also reports on the perceptions of farmers in the study about their experiences with climatic change. The research area is comprised of three villages in the coastal region (Sathkhira district, a geographic region which climate change literature has highlighted as prone to accelerated degradation. One-hundred (100 farmers participated in the project’s survey, from which the data was used to calculate weighted indexes for rankings and to perform logistic regression. The rankings, model results, and descriptive statistics, are reported here. Results showed that a majority of the farmers self-identified as having engaged in adaptive behavior. Out of 14 adaptation strategies, irrigation ranked first among farm adaptive measures, while crop insurance has ranked as least utilized. The logit model explained that out of eight factors surveyed, age, education, family size, farm size, family income, and involvement in cooperatives were significantly related to self-reported adaptation. Despite different support and technological interventions being available, lack of available water, shortage of cultivable land, and unpredictable weather ranked highest as the respondent group’s constraints to coping with environmental

  10. Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

    2015-12-01

    Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment

  11. Health effects of an increased protein intake on kidney function and colorectal cancer risk factors, including the role of animal and plant protein sources – the PREVIEW project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Grith

    intake, including the role of animal and plant protein in pre-diabetic, overweight or obese individuals on health outcomes: markers of kidney function and putative risk factors for colorectal cancer as well as insulin sensitivity and kidney function in healthy individuals. The thesis is based on PREVIEW......, especially plant protein, on insulin sensitivity and kidney function. In paper II, the aim of the study was to assess the effect after one year of a higher protein intake on kidney function, measured by in creatinine clearance. This was investigated in pre-diabetic older adults based on a sub-group of 310...... pre-diabetic individuals included in the PREVIEW RCT. We found that a higher protein intake was associated with a significant increase in urea to creatinine ratio and serum urea after one year. There were no associations between increased protein intake and creatinine clearance, estimated glomerular...

  12. Positive and negative feedback loops in nutrient phytoplankton interactions related to climate dynamics factors in a shallow temperate estuary (Vistula Lagoon, southern Baltic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruk, Marek; Kobos, Justyna; Nawrocka, Lidia; Parszuto, Katarzyna

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to demonstrate that factors associated with climate dynamics, such as temperature and wind, affect the ecosystem of the shallow Vistula Lagoon in the southern Baltic and cause nutrient forms phytoplankton interactions: the growth of biomass and constraints of it. This occurs through a network of direct and indirect relationships between environmental and phytoplankton factors, including interactions of positive and negative feedback loops. Path analysis supported by structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test hypotheses regarding the impact of climate factors on algal assemblages. Increased phytoplankton biomass was affected directly by water temperature and salinity, while the wind speed effect was indirect as it resulted in increased concentrations of suspended solids (SS) in the water column. Simultaneously, the concentration of SS in the water was positively correlated with particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), and particulate phosphorus (PP), and was negatively correlated with the total nitrogen to phosphorus (N:P) ratio. Particulate forms of C, N, and phosphorus (P), concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and nitrate and nitrite nitrogen (NO3-N + NO2-N), and ratios of the total N:P and DIN:SRP, all indirectly effected Cyanobacteria C concentrations. These processes influence other phytoplankton groups (Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyceae and the picophytoplankton fraction). Increased levels of SRP associated with organic matter (POC), which stemmed from reduced DIN:SRP ratios, contributed to increased Cyanoprokaryota and picophytoplankton C concentrations, which created a positive feedback loop. However, a simultaneous reduction in the total N:P ratio could have inhibited increases in the biomass of these assemblages by limiting N, which likely formed a negative feedback loop. The study indicates that the nutrients-phytoplankton feedback loop phenomenon can intensify eutrophication in a temperate lagoon

  13. A survey of agrobiodiversity in Gachsaran county and influence of climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hashemi Shadegani

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity is an important component in sustainability assessment of agroecosystems. Along with increasing or decreasing of biodiversity, ecosystem services in agroecosystems will be varied. Agricultural experts take into account different factors which affect agroecosystems variation. In this study, farming systems of two areas including a protected mountainous area and also a plain – hilly area in southwestern Iran from agrobiodiversity aspects are studied. In case of field crops species richness, plain – hilly area (average 4.35 versus 3.25 in mountainous area and in horticultural systems, mountainous protected area (average 2.76 versus 0.9 species in plain area had better situations. Shannon – Weiner index had the scores range from 1.25 to 1.87 in different villages which was harmonious with former estimations in Iran. Simple regression showed that mean horticultural species richness raised significantly with increasing altitudes, however in other systems, no significant trend were observed. It seems that in mountainous areas, investment on sustainable rural livelihood should be concentrated on gardening development. Homegardens species richness reduced significantly, in villages thar were far from urban centers. Results showed that there is significant and positive correlation between agronomic and horticultural systems regarding species richness and relative household income

  14. Influence of tropical environmental and climatic factors on the daily urinary excretion in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arogunjo, A.M.; Giussani, Augusto

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The daily urinary volume excreted is very crucial in order to accurately determine the excretion rate of substance needed for bioassay monitoring purposes. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 89 reported a worldwide reference value of daily urinary volume based on the data from the temperate environment. However, in order to gain global acceptance, it is necessary to incorporate data from all parts of the world. To the best of our knowledge the present value did not include contribution from the tropical Africa. Daily dietary habits and level of exercise are considered to contribute significantly to the daily urinary excretion in normal human subject. In addition, environmental factors such as air temperature, pressure and humidity seem to play a major contributing role in tropical environments as indicated in a preliminary work conducted with a limited number of volunteers. In order to improve the statistical significance of the study, twenty four hours urine collection from large number (> 500) of subjects was conducted. The results of the study, intra- and inter variability of urine excretion, the dependence on age, gender, working habits, and the possible influence of tropical environmental conditions on the daily urine volume will be presented and discussed. (author)

  15. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  16. A STUDY OF CHINESE YUAN (RMB APPRECIATION ACCOMPANYING WITH OTHERS FACTORS INCLUDING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI AND THEIR EFFECT ON CHINA ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-fu (Brian LAI

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Chinese Yuan (RMB has been on the trend of appreciation over the last decade, and such a trend will likely be continuing for some years over the next decade. According to some scholars in their published literatures, the appreciation of RMB, the influx of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI has been ongoing accompanying the sustained growing economy in mainland China over the past decade. It is believed that the China economy has an implication from some significant factors including appreciation of RMB, interest rate of RMB, inflation and continuous increase of FDI for the next several years. The present study aims to provide an emphasis on investigation into effect on China economy as a result of appreciation of RMB and FDI together with some other factors, and to provide an outlook on the economy in China for the coming decades. First, a review was carried on relevant background information and development history of RMB and FDI. There are many reasons and factors behind leading to the sustained growth in the economy in China in the last decade and such effects were in coverage in the literature review. An overview of the development of RMB exchange mechanism, and other variables including (1 RMB exchange rate, (2 China interest rate, (3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, (4 Trade Balance of China, (5 Annual Inflation rate in China, (6 Energy Consumption in China, (7 Foreign Exchange Reserve in China, (8 China wages, (9 China External Debt and (10 China Consumer Price Index, which may have effect on the growth of the economy in China is covered in the literature review conducted in Chapter 2.

  17. Climate and happiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehdanz, Katrin [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany); Maddison, David [Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark)

    2005-01-05

    Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change.

  18. Climate and happiness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehdanz, Katrin; Maddison, David

    2005-01-01

    Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change

  19. Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

    2017-04-01

    Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

  20. The influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on hydrological regime of rivers at the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Burenia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite a large number of publications covering various aspects of the influence of climatic factors on runoff, this direction in hydrological research acquires a new meaning in connection with the increase in anthropogenic pressure on river systems. In order to identify regional and local features of the hydrological regime of the rivers in Sayan mountain region, the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff of the main rivers in the study area were analyzed; the analysis of river flow trends against the backdrop of climate change and forest management in the drain areas was performed. Studies have shown that the revealed trends in the annual runoff of the studied rivers differ in type and in magnitude. The hydrological regime of the rivers with the negative trend of annual runoff is determined by the general nature of the humidification of the territory, which overrides the influence of all other factors. Despite a general trend of decreasing precipitation, the positive trend of annual runoff is due to a decrease in evaporation in the drainage areas, which depends both on the temperature regime of the research area and on the anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation under logging impact. In spite of the considerable variability of annual river flow, trends in runoff coefficients for study rivers vary slightly, indicating the relative stability in water availability. This is due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation in the drainage areas, i.e. new felling, regeneration on logging sites and creating forest crops. Obtained results show that at the regional level in conditions of anthropogenic pressure on the forests in the drainage areas of medium and small rivers, the trends of climatic parameters, in particular precipitation, are offset by the forest harvesting and subsequent reforestation dynamics at clear cuts.

  1. Evaluation of factors affecting soil carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds in varying climate zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriman, L S; Moore, T L C; Wang, J W; Osmond, D L; Al-Rubaei, A M; Smolek, A P; Blecken, G T; Viklander, M; Hunt, W F

    2017-04-01

    The carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds were investigated in four different climates: U.S., Northern Sweden, Southern Sweden, and Singapore, representing a range of annual mean temperatures, growing season lengths and rainfall depths: geographic factors that were not statistically compared, but have great effect on carbon (C) accumulation. A chronosequence was used to estimate C accumulations rates; C accumulation and decomposition rates were not directly measured. C accumulated significantly over time in vegetated shallow water areas (0-30cm) in the USA (78.4gCm -2 yr -1 ), in vegetated temporary inundation zones in Sweden (75.8gCm -2 yr -1 ), and in all ponds in Singapore (135gCm -2 yr -1 ). Vegetative production appeared to exert a stronger influence on relative C accumulation rates than decomposition. Comparing among the four climatic zones, the effects of increasing rainfall and growing season lengths (vegetative production) outweighed the effects of higher temperature on decomposition rates. Littoral vegetation was a significant source to the soil C pool relative to C sources draining from watersheds. Establishment of vegetation in the shallow water zones of retention ponds is vital to providing a C source to the soil. Thus, the width of littoral shelves containing this vegetation along the perimeter may be increased if C sequestration is a design goal. This assessment establishes that stormwater wet retention ponds can sequester C across different climate zones with generally annual rainfall and lengths of growing season being important general factors for C accumulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A review on factors for maximizing solar fraction under wet climate environment in Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab; Rafeeu, Yaaseen [Alternative and Renewable Energy Laboratory, Institute of Advanced Technology (ITMA), Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2010-10-15

    Solar energy is the most promising source of clean, renewable energy and it has the greatest potential of any power source to solve the world's energy problems. However, the problem, is how best to harness this vast amount of solar energy. Nevertheless, even if highly efficient Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) could be made cheaply, there would be considerable change in solar power. This technology is expected to be more efficient and to achieve a manufacturing cost of less than $1/W near future. This paper reviews and elaborates the methodology utilized to design and fabricate the solar dish concentrator and outlines the parameters that can be used to increase the efficiency of solar fraction in parabolic dish concentrator under wet climate environment in Malaysia. The study finally provides ideas to the continually increasing ability of these technologies to concentrate and harness solar energy for electricity production and thus eliminate the growing concern over climate change and how it will hurt the region's environment, human health and economy. (author)

  3. A review on factors for maximizing solar fraction under wet climate environment in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab; Rafeeu, Yaaseen

    2010-01-01

    Solar energy is the most promising source of clean, renewable energy and it has the greatest potential of any power source to solve the world's energy problems. However, the problem, is how best to harness this vast amount of solar energy. Nevertheless, even if highly efficient Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) could be made cheaply, there would be considerable change in solar power. This technology is expected to be more efficient and to achieve a manufacturing cost of less than $1/W near future. This paper reviews and elaborates the methodology utilized to design and fabricate the solar dish concentrator and outlines the parameters that can be used to increase the efficiency of solar fraction in parabolic dish concentrator under wet climate environment in Malaysia. The study finally provides ideas to the continually increasing ability of these technologies to concentrate and harness solar energy for electricity production and thus eliminate the growing concern over climate change and how it will hurt the region's environment, human health and economy. (author)

  4. Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy

    2018-06-01

    When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.

  5. Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savi, Tadeja; Bertuzzi, Stefano; Branca, Salvatore; Tretiach, Mauro; Nardini, Andrea

    2015-02-01

    Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  6. Climate factors affecting fertility after cervical insemination during the first months of the breeding season in Rasa Aragonesa ewes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santolaria, P.; Yániz, J.; Fantova, E.; Vicente-Fiel, S.; Palacín, I.

    2014-09-01

    This study was carried out to examine the impact of several climate variables on the pregnancy rate after cervical artificial insemination (AI) of Rasa Aragonesa ewes. Data were derived from 8,977 inseminations in 76 well-managed flocks performed during the first month of the breeding season (July to October). The following data were recorded for each animal: farm, year, month of AI, parity, lambing-treatment interval, inseminating ram, AI technician, and climatic variables such as mean, maximum and minimum temperature, mean and maximum relative humidity, rainfall, and mean and maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for each day from day 12 before AI to day 14 post-AI. Means were furthermore calculated for the following periods around AI (day 0): -12 to 0, -2 to 0, AI day, 0 to 2, and 0 to 14. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the likelihood of pregnancy decreased when maximum temperature in the 2 days prior to AI was higher than 30 °C (by a factor of 0.81). Fertility was also lower for primiparous ewes and in multiparous ewes with more than five previous parturitions. Other factors with significant impact on fertility were flock, technician, inseminating ram, and a lambing-AI interval longer than 240 days. It was concluded that the 2 days prior to AI seems to be the period when heat stress had the greatest impact on pregnancy rate in Rasa Aragonesa ewes.

  7. Divergence of dominant factors in soil microbial communities and functions in forest ecosystems along a climatic gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiwei; Yu, Guirui; Zhang, Xinyu; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Qiufeng; Wang, Shengzhong; Xu, Xiaofeng; Wang, Ruili; Zhao, Ning

    2018-03-01

    Soil microorganisms play an important role in regulating nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Most of the studies conducted thus far have been confined to a single forest biome or have focused on one or two controlling factors, and few have dealt with the integrated effects of climate, vegetation, and soil substrate availability on soil microbial communities and functions among different forests. In this study, we used phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) analysis to investigate soil microbial community structure and extracellular enzymatic activities to evaluate the functional potential of soil microbes of different types of forests in three different climatic zones along the north-south transect in eastern China (NSTEC). Both climate and forest type had significant effects on soil enzyme activities and microbial communities with considerable interactive effects. Except for soil acid phosphatase (AP), the other three enzyme activities were much higher in the warm temperate zone than in the temperate and the subtropical climate zones. The soil total PLFAs and bacteria were much higher in the temperate zone than in the warm temperate and the subtropical zones. The soil β-glucosidase (BG) and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activities were highest in the coniferous forest. Except for the soil fungi and fungi-bacteria (F/B), the different groups of microbial PLFAs were much higher in the conifer broad-leaved mixed forests than in the coniferous forests and the broad-leaved forests. In general, soil enzyme activities and microbial PLFAs were higher in primary forests than in secondary forests in temperate and warm temperate regions. In the subtropical region, soil enzyme activities were lower in the primary forests than in the secondary forests and microbial PLFAs did not differ significantly between primary and secondary forests. Different compositions of the tree species may cause variations in soil microbial communities and enzyme activities. Our results

  8. Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

    2018-04-01

    Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

  9. Astronomy and the Climate Crisis

    CERN Document Server

    Cooke, Antony

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most hotly debated issues of today. Increasing global temperatures will impact all of us. There are more questions than answers, however, and sweeping statements on the subject made by public figures, often with little scientific understanding, only further confuses public opinion. Astronomical factors, apart from passing references to the Sun, are given short shrift in relation to climate change. However, they might be amongst the major determinants of it.  A presentation of those that have been studied that some scientists suspect might be involved are featured in this book. Included is an in-depth look at the physics of climate itself, the potential effects of the Sun, solar storms, sunspots, solar variability, the magnetosphere, solar cycles, influences of nearby planets, orbital factors, cosmic rays, possible galactic influences, monitoring from space, even climate change elsewhere in the solar system, and much more. The greatest challenge climate change scientists face is d...

  10. Fisheries and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

  11. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  12. Multilevel Factor Structure, Concurrent Validity, and Test-Retest Reliability of the High School Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Francis L.; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2016-01-01

    Although school climate has long been recognized as an important factor in the school improvement process, there are few psychometrically supported measures based on teacher perspectives. The current study replicated and extended the factor structure, concurrent validity, and test-retest reliability of the teacher version of the Authoritative…

  13. Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

    2017-04-01

    In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

  14. Impacts of changes in climate and socio-economic factors on land use in the Rhine basin. Projections for the decade 2040-2049

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roetter, R.P.; Veeneklaas, F.R.; Van Diepen, C.A. [DLO Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this study was to develop land use projections for the middle of the next century. To separate the influence of climate change from other factors on land use, projections (a Central Projection and two variants) were made under both unchanged and changed climate. They cover the plausible range of alternative land claims of agriculture and urbanization. Impacts of climate change on land suitability as well as overall changes in the acreages of several land use categories are presented. 3 tabs., 7 refs.

  15. Climate risk index for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

    2018-06-01

    We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  16. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  17. Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Matthew S; Poti, Matt; Karnauskas, Kristopher B

    2016-04-01

    Changes in larval import, export, and self-seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present-day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004-2012 represented present-day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self-seeding in 100 years such that 62-76% of islands experienced increased self-seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1-3% points in self-seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation

  18. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ice Mass Variations and the Local Climatic Factors in the Riparian Zone of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, P.; Ambinakudige, S.

    2016-12-01

    Californian icefields are natural basins of fresh water. They provide irrigation water to the farms in the central valley. We analyzed the ice mass loss rates, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) in Sacramento and San Joaquin basins in California. The digital elevation models from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to calculate ice mass loss rate between the years 2002 and 2015. Additionally, Landsat TIR data were used to extract the land surface temperature. Data from local weather stations were analyzed to understand the spatiotemporal trends in air temperature. The results showed an overall mass recession of -0.8 ± 0.7 m w.e.a-1. We also noticed an about 60% loss in areal extent of the glaciers in the study basins between 2000 and 2015. Local climatic factors, along with the global climate patterns might have influenced the negative trends in the ice mass loss. Overall, there was an increase in the air temperature by 0.07± 0.02 °C in the central valley between 2000 and 2015. Furthermore, LST increased by 0.34 ± 0.4 °C and 0.55± 0.1 °C in the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Our preliminary results show the decrease in area and mass of ice mass in the basins, and changing agricultural practices in the valley.

  19. Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

    2018-01-01

    A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

  20. Climatic and social risk factors for Aedes infestation in rural Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagao, Yoshiro; Thavara, Usavadee; Chitnumsup, Pensri; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Chansang, Chitti; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid

    2003-07-01

    An intense epidemic of dengue haemorrhagic fever in 1998 prompted the Thai government to investigate the feasibility of focalized vector (Aedes aegypti) control programmes. We tested for correlations of three indices of Aedes larval abundance (housing index, container index and Breteau index) against 38 socio-economic and four climatic variables. Availability of public water wells, existence of transport services and proportion of tin houses were positively associated with larval indices. Private water wells, health education, health insurance coverage, thatched houses and use of firewood for cooking were negatively associated. These probably represent both direct effects on breeding sites (private vs. public wells decrease necessity to store water, and health education may encourage breeding site removal), and more general effects of health-related attitudes, housing quality and remoteness from urban areas. Indices were positively associated with daily minimum temperature, an increase in precipitation from the previous month (reflecting the onset of the rainy season) and daily maximum temperatures of approximately 33-34 degrees C. The associations were used to derive statistical models to predict the rank order of larval indices within the study area (Spearman's correlation coefficients = 0.525-0.554). The study provides a rational basis for identifying possible social interventions, and for prioritizing previously unsurveyed villages for further monitoring and focalized vector control.

  1. The TAL effector PthA4 interacts with nuclear factors involved in RNA-dependent processes including a HMG protein that selectively binds poly(U RNA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Antonio de Souza

    Full Text Available Plant pathogenic bacteria utilize an array of effector proteins to cause disease. Among them, transcriptional activator-like (TAL effectors are unusual in the sense that they modulate transcription in the host. Although target genes and DNA specificity of TAL effectors have been elucidated, how TAL proteins control host transcription is poorly understood. Previously, we showed that the Xanthomonas citri TAL effectors, PthAs 2 and 3, preferentially targeted a citrus protein complex associated with transcription control and DNA repair. To extend our knowledge on the mode of action of PthAs, we have identified new protein targets of the PthA4 variant, required to elicit canker on citrus. Here we show that all the PthA4-interacting proteins are DNA and/or RNA-binding factors implicated in chromatin remodeling and repair, gene regulation and mRNA stabilization/modification. The majority of these proteins, including a structural maintenance of chromosomes protein (CsSMC, a translin-associated factor X (CsTRAX, a VirE2-interacting protein (CsVIP2, a high mobility group (CsHMG and two poly(A-binding proteins (CsPABP1 and 2, interacted with each other, suggesting that they assemble into a multiprotein complex. CsHMG was shown to bind DNA and to interact with the invariable leucine-rich repeat region of PthAs. Surprisingly, both CsHMG and PthA4 interacted with PABP1 and 2 and showed selective binding to poly(U RNA, a property that is novel among HMGs and TAL effectors. Given that homologs of CsHMG, CsPABP1, CsPABP2, CsSMC and CsTRAX in other organisms assemble into protein complexes to regulate mRNA stability and translation, we suggest a novel role of TAL effectors in mRNA processing and translational control.

  2. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumon Kumar Das

    Full Text Available There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh.Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors.The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010. In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (p<0.001; 53%-21% (p<0.001 and 32%-22% (p<0.001 respectively over the same period. Mean ambient temperature increased from 25.76°C-26.62°C (p = 0.07; mean rainfall, sea level pressure and mean humidity decreased from 234.92-111.75 mm (p = 0.5, 1008.30-1006.61 mm of hg (p = 0.02 and 76.63%-70.26% (p<0.001, respectively. In the adjusted model, a decrease in monthly proportion of underweight [coef.: -0.189 (95% CI:-0.376, -0.003] and wasting [-0.265 (-0.455, -0.075] were significantly and inversely associated with rotavirus infection. However, an inverse but insignificant association was observed for

  3. Implementing the Climate Action Plan | Climate Neutral Research Campuses |

    Science.gov (United States)

    considerations for building a portfolio, including: Compatibility with organizational mission: All climate NREL Implementing the Climate Action Plan Implementing the Climate Action Plan When implementing climate action plans on research campuses, two important and related questions must be answered

  4. PHARMACOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF TREATMENT WITH THE INHIBITORS OF TUMOR NECROSIS FACTOR OF THE CHRONIC UVEITIS REFRACTORY TO THE BASIC THERAPY (INCLUDING AN ASSOCIATED WITH JUVENILE IDIOPATHIC ARTHRITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Rudakova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Therapy of chronic uveitis refractory to the basic treatment, in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA is a very complex problem in pediatrics. Substantial progress in this area resulted after the implementation in practice of inhibitors of tumor necrosis factor (TNF, as the most effective in such clinical situation drugs adalimumab and infliximab are considered (although infliximab was not officially approved in JIA. Objective. To estimate the cost effectiveness of TNF inhibitors — adalimumab, and infliximab in chronic uveitis, refractory to the basic therapy (including associated with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. Methods. A modeling on the basis of a comparative prospective cohort clinical study was carried out. The analysis was performed by the method «cost–effectiveness» from a position of health and social accounting perspective. Results. It was shown that the frequency and time of remission did not differ when treatment with infliximab (5 mg/kg at 0–2–6 weeks and further once in 6–8 weeks and adalimumab (24 mg/m2 once in 2 weeks. Adalimumab provides a long-term maintenance of remission (no recurrence in 60% of patients within 40 months of observation, whereas 1 year after the treatment with infliximab the frequency of exacerbations was returned to that observed before therapy. The proportion of patients without relapse in the treatment with infliximab for 40 months was 18.8%. Similar results were obtained in a subset of patients with chronic uveitis associated with JIA (with follow-up of 20 months of in a group of infliximab number patients without relapse was 11.1%, with adalimumab therapy — 63.6%. In the general population of patients with refractory chronic uveitis the factor «cost–effectiveness» calculated for a patient with the maintenance of remission for 3 years with adalimumab therapy was in 2,1–2,8 times less than in the treatment with infliximab. In chronic uveitis associated with JIA, the coefficient of

  5. Climatic factors affecting radial growth of Betula ermanii and Betula platypylla in Kamchatka

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Doležal, Jiří; Ishii, H.; Kyncl, Tomáš; Takahashi, K.; Vetrova, V. P.; Homma, K.; Sumida, A.; Hara, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 2 (2010), s. 273-285 ISSN 0045-5067 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/05/0119; GA AV ČR IAA600050802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : tree-ring widths * boreal forest * Central Japan Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.574, year: 2010

  6. THE CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE REDISTRIBUTION OF SR-90

    Science.gov (United States)

    leaching solution present and the chemical and cation exchange properties of the soil solution ; a mathematical model of movement was established...manual for using high speed computers to compute the factors of the daily water balance was prepared; the influence of the soil solution in

  7. [Population change of farmland rodent and the influences of climate and cultivation factors in Fengxian District of Shanghai, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fei, Lei; Wang, Zu-guo; Yao, Yao; Xu, Xiang-ming; Gu, Pin-qiang

    2015-02-01

    We analyzed the changes of rodent population from 1988 to 2013 in Fengxian District, Shanghai, and discussed the relevance of rodent population dynamics and climate, and ecological factors. Results showed that the average rat density was 1.3% from 1988 to 2013, and the dominant species was Apodemus agrarius. There was little change of density between years. The average composition ratio was 97.5%. The peak of rodent density appeared from February to May, highest in March. Average density and peak decreased obviously year after year. Numbers of adult rodents of 1st group were positively correlated, while that of adult rodents of 2nd group and elderly group negatively correlated with years. Rat age presented a shortened trend annually. Rodent density and temperature factors were negatively correlated except in January. Extreme warmth in February had a lagged, positive effect on the rat density. Precipitation factors had no significant correlation with the density of rodents. Relative humidity was positively correlated with the density, mostly. Planting structure adjustment and reduction of planting acreage were significantly correlated with the reduction of rodent density. Increased deratization rate was also correlated with the reduction.

  8. African Religion, Climate Change and Knowledge Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tarusarira, Joram

    2017-01-01

    This article argues that as humanity is now changing the composition of the atmosphere at a rate that is very exceptional on the geological time scale, resulting in global warming, humans must deal with climate change holistically, including the often overlooked religion factor. Human-caused climate

  9. Performance of Anidolic Daylighting Systems in tropical climates - Parametric studies for identification of main influencing factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linhart, Friedrich; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis [Solar Energy and Building Physics Laboratory (LESO-PB), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL), 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Wittkopf, Stephen K. [School of Design and Environment, Department of Architecture, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566 (Singapore)

    2010-07-15

    Making daylight more available in buildings is highly desirable, not only for reasons of energy-efficiency, but also for improvement of occupants' health and well-being. Core-daylighting, that is daylight provision in areas situated at considerable distances from facades and windows, is currently one of the main challenges in sustainable building design. Anidolic Daylighting Systems (ADSs) are one very promising technology in the field of core-daylighting, but commercial solutions that are not only well-performing but also financially competitive are not yet widely available. This article presents results of parametric studies on Anidolic Integrated Ceilings (AICs), a special type of ADS, for identification of main influencing factors. The article describes a reliable method for simulating ADS and AIC performance under given sky conditions. Various simulation results for the example location Singapore are discussed in detail, it is concluded that the main influencing factors are coating material, system dimensions and external obstruction, and those influencing factors' potential impacts are quantified. It is shown that AIC overall efficiencies can reach up to almost 50% in Singapore. The essentially new results presented in this article can be of great help to architects, engineers and scientists in the future, when it comes to precisely dimensioning ADS for various buildings and daylight conditions. (author)

  10. Including adverse drug events in economic evaluations of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs for adult rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review of economic decision analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather, Eleanor M; Payne, Katherine; Harrison, Mark; Symmons, Deborah P M

    2014-02-01

    Anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs (anti-TNFs) have revolutionised the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). More effective than standard non-biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs), anti-TNFs are also substantially more expensive. Consequently, a number of model-based economic evaluations have been conducted to establish the relative cost-effectiveness of anti-TNFs. However, anti-TNFs are associated with an increased risk of adverse drug events (ADEs) such as serious infections relative to nbDMARDs. Such ADEs will likely impact on both the costs and consequences of anti-TNFs, for example, through hospitalisations and forced withdrawal from treatment. The aim of this review was to identify and critically appraise if, and how, ADEs have been incorporated into model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-TNFs for adult patients with RA. A systematic literature review was performed. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid EMBASE; Web of Science; NHS Economic Evaluations Database) were searched for literature published between January 1990 and October 2013 using electronic search strategies. The reference lists of retrieved studies were also hand searched. In addition, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence technology appraisals were searched to identify economic models used to inform UK healthcare decision making. Only full economic evaluations that had used an economic model to evaluate biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) (including anti-TNFs) for adult patients with RA and had incorporated the direct costs and/or consequences of ADEs were critically appraised. To be included, studies also had to be available as a full text in English. Data extracted included general study characteristics and information concerning the methods used to incorporate ADEs and any associated assumptions made. The extracted data were synthesised using a tabular and narrative format. A total of 43 model-based economic evaluations of bDMARDs for adult RA

  11. Utilizing Remote Sensing to Explore Hydrological and Climatic Factors of Visceral Leishmaniasis in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczkiewicz, A.; Sweeney, A.; Reid, C.; Seaman, J.; Abubakar, A.; Ritmeijer, K.; Jensen, K.; Schroeder, R.; McDonald, K. C.; Lessel, J.; Thomson, M. C.; Elnaiem, D.; Ceccato, P.

    2014-12-01

    Recent epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Sudan and South Sudan (locally known as Kala Azar) have caused an estimated 100,000 deaths and have renewed the impetus for defining the ecological boundaries of this vector borne disease. In the past 30 years outbreaks have occurred cyclically within this country, but recent shifts in endemicity have necessitated a more robust understanding of the drivers of the disease. Previous work (e.g. Gebre-Michael et al., 2004; Ashford & Thomson, 1991; Hoogstraal & Heyneman, 1969) has suggested that the primary biological vector in this region, the female sand fly Phlebotomus orientalis, exhibits sensitivities to environmental and climatic variables. Results of this study showed a relationship between precipitation and inundation during months of the transmission season (April-July) and the number of confirmed cases in the following September-January period. Particular months of the transmission season with below-average precipitation were better indicators of lagged reports of VL than others. During VL epidemics (2009, 2010, 2011) the month of June exhibited below average precipitation. The two largest epidemics (2010, 2011) were associated with years of below average precipitation in the month of April. Inundation during April-July (AMJJ) also exhibited a strong inverse relationship with reported VL cases in the following September- January (SONDJ). This relationship was best explored when comparing the VL case data of a specific medical center to the inundation anomalies. Results are typified by the Lankien Medical Center analysis where below average inundation during April displays an inverse relationship with VL cases in the following SONDJ. Drought may lead to below average inundation, which could allow for soils to maintain their fissures, thus maintaining the sand fly breeding habitat, resulting in a sustained breeding season for the sandflies (Quate, 1964). Above-average precipitation and inundation might have the

  12. Institutional Factors in the Evaluation by the Entrepreneur of Municipality Investment Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Yuryevich Kokovikhin

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of the survey assessing the satisfaction level of small and medium businesses of the Sverdlovsk region with the factors of the institutional environment created in the area. Modern economics identifies four economic benefits of entrepreneurship development: job generation; productivity growth; innovation and economic growth. Governments, however, can exert either a positive or a negative influence on the extent to which in practice these benefits materialize. The positive result of Government policy is the investment appeal of the territory. We suppose, that the investment appeal of the territory depends on the correlation of the indicator of satisfaction and objective parameters of the institutional environment. Data for the subjective view was the survey of the satisfaction level of small and medium businesses of the Sverdlovsk region with the factors of the institutional environment at the year 2015 (more than 1000 respondents in 72 territories. Data for the objective view was Reports of the Heads of Sverdlovsk region municipalities about the efficiency in the municipal management, made public in 2015. The results of the research allow to develop a series of recommendations to improve the institutional environment for small and medium businesses. The basis for the selection of priority measures to improve the satisfaction of entrepreneurs is the correlation of the indicator of satisfaction and objective parameters of the institutional environment. The recommendations of the paper can be used by State and Municipal Governments in the policy of the increase of territory investment appeal. The scientific results of the research can become the base for further investigations of the correlation between subjective and objective factors of territorial development.

  13. Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Doris; Pavel, Jutta; Mayer, Geert; Geisler, Peter; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

    2017-06-01

    Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls). A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1). The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Multiple factors, including non-motor impairments, influence decision making with regard to exercise participation in Parkinson's disease: a qualitative enquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Christine; Clemson, Lindy; Canning, Colleen G

    2016-01-01

    To explore how the meaning of exercise and other factors interact and influence the exercise behaviour of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) enrolled in a 6-month minimally supervised exercise program to prevent falls, regardless of whether they completed the prescribed exercise or not. This qualitative study utilised in-depth semi-structured interviews analysed using grounded theory methodology. Four main themes were constructed from the data: adapting to change and loss, the influence of others, making sense of the exercise experience and hope for a more active future. Participation in the PD-specific physiotherapy program involving group exercise provided an opportunity for participants to reframe their identity of their "active" self. Three new influences on exercise participation were identified and explored: non-motor impairments of apathy and fatigue, the belief in a finite energy quota, and the importance of feedback. A model was developed incorporating the themes and influences to explain decision-making for exercise participation in this group. Complex and interacting issues, including non-motor impairments, need to be considered in order to enhance the development and ongoing implementation of effective exercise programmes for people with PD. Exercise participation can assist individuals to reframe their identity as they are faced with losses associated with Parkinson's disease and ageing. Non-motor impairments of apathy and fatigue may influence exercise participation in people with Parkinson's disease. Particular attention needs to be paid to the provision of feedback in exercise programs for people with Parkinson's disease as it important for their decision-making about continuing exercise.

  15. Retrospective analysis of factors associated with outcome of proximal interphalangeal joint arthrodesis in 82 horses including Warmblood and Thoroughbred sport horses and Quarter Horses (1992-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herthel, T D; Rick, M C; Judy, C E; Cohen, N D; Herthel, D J

    2016-09-01

    Outcomes associated with arthrodesis of the proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joint in Quarter Horses used for Western performance activities are well documented but little is known regarding outcomes for other types of horses. To identify factors associated with outcomes, including breed and activity, after arthrodesis of the PIP joint in Warmbloods, Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses. Retrospective case series. Surgical case records of 82 Quarter Horses principally engaged in Western performance and Thoroughbred or Warmblood breeds principally engaged in showing, showjumping and dressage, with arthrodesis of the PIP joint were reviewed. Arthrodesis was performed with either 3 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion, a dynamic compression plate (DCP) with 2 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion, or a locking compression plate (LCP) with 2 transarticular cortex bone screws placed in lag fashion. Demographic data, clinical presentation, radiographic findings, surgical technique, post operative treatment and complications were recorded. Long-term follow-up was obtained for all 82 horses. Osteoarthritis of the PIP joint was the most common presenting condition requiring arthrodesis, which was performed with either the 3 screw technique (n = 41), DCP fixation (n = 22), or LCP fixation (n = 19). Post operatively, 23/31 (74%) Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and 44/51 (87%) Quarter Horses achieved successful outcomes. Thirteen of 23 (57%) Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and 24 of 38 (63%) Quarter Horses, used for athletic performance, returned to successful competition. Within this subgroup of horses engaged in high-level activity, regardless of breed type, horses undergoing hindlimb arthrodesis were significantly more likely to return to successful competition (73%; 33/45) than those with forelimb arthrodesis (25%; 4/16, P = 0.002). Arthrodesis of the PIP joint in Warmbloods/Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses results in a favourable outcome for return to

  16. Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard

    2010-01-01

    and pasture areas. Increases in pasture are also observed and caused by improved tenure in the driest zone. Adaptation strategies to declining crop production include 'prayer' and migration in the 400-500 mm zone; reforestation, migration, and government support in the 500-700 mm zone; and soil improvement...

  17. Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

  18. Seasonal shift in climatic limiting factors on tree transpiration: evidence from sap flow observations at alpine treelines in southeast Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xinsheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  19. Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

  20. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  1. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

    This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.

  2. Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 – 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. – May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. – Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons. PMID:25033387

  3. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  4. [Factors related to nurses' patient identification behavior and the moderating effect of person-organization value congruence climate within nursing units].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Mee; Kang, Seung Wan; Kim, Se Young

    2014-04-01

    This research was an empirical study designed to identify precursors and interaction effects related to nurses' patient identification behavior. A multilevel analysis methodology was used. A self-report survey was administered to registered nurses (RNs) of a university hospital in South Korea. Of the questionnaires, 1114 were analyzed. The individual-level factors that had a significantly positive association with patient identification behavior were person-organization value congruence, organizational commitment, occupational commitment, tenure at the hospital, and tenure at the unit. Significantly negative group-level precursors of patient identification behavior were burnout climate and the number of RNs. Two interaction effects of the person-organization value congruence climate were identified. The first was a group-level moderating effect in which the negative relationship between the number of RNs and patient identification behavior was weaker when the nursing unit's value congruence climate was high. The second was a cross-level moderating effect in which the positive relationship between tenure at the unit and patient identification behavior was weaker when value congruence climate was high. This study simultaneously tested both individual-level and group-level factors that potentially influence patient identification behavior and identified the moderating role of person-organization value congruence climate. Implications of these results are discussed.

  5. Risks for upper respiratory infections in infants during their first months in day care included environmental and child-related factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Rikke Pilmann; Larnkjaer, Anni; Ritz, Christian; Hojsak, Iva; Michaelsen, Kim; Mølgaard, Christian

    2018-03-14

    We examined the frequency and potential risk factors for respiratory infections, diarrhoea and absences in infants during their first months in day care. This prospective cohort study comprised 269 Danish infants aged eight months to 14 months and was part of a study that examined how probiotics affected absences from day care due to respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. The risk factors examined were the household, child characteristics and type of day care facility. Parents registered upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), diarrhoea and day care absences on web-based questionnaires. Over a mean of 5.6 months in day care, 36% and 20% of the infants had at least one URTI or LRTI, and 60% had diarrhoeal episodes. The risk of at least one URTI was increased by previous respiratory infections, with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.65, but was inversely associated with having a pet (OR: 0.43), being cared for by registered child minders compared to day care centres (OR: 0.36), birthweight (OR 0.40) and age at day care enrolment (OR: 0.64). No significant risk factors for LRTIs and diarrhoea were found. Infection risks were associated with environmental factors and factors related to the child. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pdnn Sirisena

    Full Text Available Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011 and R studio (2012 and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (p<0.0001. No positive correlation was observed between dengue incidence and temperature (p = 0.107 or humidity (p = 0.084. Rainfall prior to 2 and 5 months and a rise in the temperature prior to 9 months positively correlated with dengue incidence as based on the auto-correlation values. A rise in humidity prior to 1 month had a mild positive correlation with dengue incidence. However, a rise in humidity prior to 9 months had a significant negative correlation with dengue incidence based on the auto-correlation values. Remote sensing and GIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks.

  7. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  8. Human factors issues and approaches in the spatial layout of a space station control room, including the use of virtual reality as a design analysis tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Joseph P., II

    1994-01-01

    Human Factors Engineering support was provided for the 30% design review of the late Space Station Freedom Payload Control Area (PCA). The PCA was to be the payload operations control room, analogous to the Spacelab Payload Operations Control Center (POCC). This effort began with a systematic collection and refinement of the relevant requirements driving the spatial layout of the consoles and PCA. This information was used as input for specialized human factors analytical tools and techniques in the design and design analysis activities. Design concepts and configuration options were developed and reviewed using sketches, 2-D Computer-Aided Design (CAD) drawings, and immersive Virtual Reality (VR) mockups.

  9. Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

  10. Seasonal fluctuations of airborne pollen grains count and its correlation with climatic factors from khairpur; sindh, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perveen, A.; Khan, M.

    2014-01-01

    This is the first aerobiological survey of Khairpur, Sindh. The survey was conducted from January-December, 2011 using Burkard's Seven Days Volumetric Spore trap. A total of 4559 pollen/m3 were recorded belonging to 33 plant families and 41 pollen types. The major pollen types were Poaceae (13.84%), Amaranthaceae/ Chenopodiaceae (10.40%), Cyperus rotundus (7.61%); Prosopis juliflora (6.19%), Brassica campestris (4.91%), Typha angustifolia (4.89%), Tamarix indica (4.43%), Eucalyptus globules (4.28%), Conocarpus erectus (3.73%), Asteraceae (3.01%), Guaicum officinale (2.94%), Azadirachta indica (2.74%), Malvaceae (2.15%) and Phoenix dactylifera (1.84%) constituting more than 70% of total pollen catch. The highest pollen grains concentration was observed in May-2011 with 880 pollen/m3 count while second highest pollen concentration was detected in September 2011 with 682 pollen/m3. The lowest count was found in December- 2011. Climatic factors like wind speed, average temperature, humidity and rainfall were correlated with the pollen counts. Different pollen types showed significant positive correlation with average temperature while negative correlation with humidity and wind speed. (author)

  11. Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climate and anthropogenic factors as detected from multiple satellite time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Heqing; Jia, Gensuo; Forbes, Bruce C

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce the uncertainties in remotely sensed detection of phenological shifts of high latitude ecosystems in response to climate changes in past decades. In this study, vegetation phenology in western Arctic Russia (the Yamal Peninsula) was investigated by analyzing and comparing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and SPOT-Vegetation (VGT) during the decade 2000–2010. The spatial patterns of key phenological parameters were highly heterogeneous along the latitudinal gradients based on multi-satellite data. There was earlier SOS (start of the growing season), later EOS (end of the growing season), longer LOS (length of the growing season), and greater MaxNDVI from north to south in the region. The results based on MODIS and VGT data showed similar trends in phenological changes from 2000 to 2010, while quite a different trend was found based on AVHRR data from 2000 to 2008. A significantly delayed EOS (p < 0.01), thus increasing the LOS, was found from AVHRR data, while no similar trends were detected from MODIS and VGT data. There were no obvious shifts in MaxNDVI during the last decade. MODIS and VGT data were considered to be preferred data for monitoring vegetation phenology in northern high latitudes. Temperature is still a key factor controlling spatial phenological gradients and variability, while anthropogenic factors (reindeer husbandry and resource exploitation) might explain the delayed SOS in southern Yamal. Continuous environmental damage could trigger a positive feedback to the delayed SOS. (letter)

  12. Organizational climate and family life: how these factors affect the status of women faculty at one medical school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shollen, S Lynn; Bland, Carole J; Finstad, Deborah A; Taylor, Anne L

    2009-01-01

    To compare men and women faculty's family situations and perceptions of organizational climate. In 2005, the authors sent an electronic survey to full-time faculty at the University of Minnesota Medical School to assess their perceptions of professional relationships, mentoring, obstacles to satisfaction, policies, circumstances that contribute to departure, gender equality, family situations, and work life. Of 615 faculty, 354 (57%) responded. Women and men were equally productive and worked similar total hours. Women were less likely to have partners/spouses, were more likely to have partners/spouses who were employed, and devoted more time to household tasks. Compared with men, women reported more experience with obstacles to career success and satisfaction and with circumstances that contribute to departure. More women than men perceived that they were expected to represent the perspective of their gender, that they were constantly under scrutiny by colleagues, that they worked harder than colleagues worked in order to be perceived as legitimate, and that there were "unwritten rules" and bias against women. Few faculty reported overt discrimination; however, more women than men perceived gender discrimination in promotion, salary, space/resources, access to administrative staff, and graduate student/fellow assignment. Work-life and family-life factors served as obstacles to satisfaction and retention of the women faculty studied. Many of these factors reflect challenges attributable to subtle gender bias and the intersection of work and family life. The authors provide examples showing that medical schools can implement policy changes that support faculty who must balance work and family responsibilities. Identification and elimination of gender bias in areas such as promotion, salary, and resource allocation is essential.

  13. An information value based analysis of physical and climatic factors affecting dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tripathi Nitin

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases are the most dreaded worldwide health problems. Although many campaigns against it have been conducted, Dengue Fever (DF and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF are still the major health problems of Thailand. The reported number of dengue incidences in 1998 for the Thailand was 129,954, of which Sukhothai province alone reported alarming number of 682. It was the second largest epidemic outbreak of dengue after 1987. Government arranges the remedial facilities as and when dengue is reported. But, the best way to control is to prevent it from happening. This will be possible only when knowledge about the relationship of DF/DHF with climatic and physio-environmental agents is discovered. This paper explores empirical relationship of climatic factors rainfall, temperature and humidity with the DF/DHF incidences using multivariate regression analysis. Also, a GIS based methodology is proposed in this paper to explore the influence of physio-environmental factors on dengue incidences. Remotely sensed data provided important data about physical environment and have been used for many vector borne diseases. Information Values (IV method was utilised to derive influence of various factors in the quantitative terms. Researchers have not applied this type of analysis for dengue earlier. Sukhothai province was selected for the case study as it had high number of dengue cases in 1998 and also due to its diverse physical setting with variety of land use/land cover types. Results Preliminary results demonstrated that physical factors derived from remotely sensed data could indicate variation in physical risk factors affecting DF/DHF. A composite analysis of these three factors with dengue incidences was carried out using multivariate regression analysis. Three empirical models ER-1, ER-2 and ER-3 were evaluated. It was found that these three factors have significant relation with DF/DHF incidences and can be related to

  14. Risks for upper respiratory infections in infants during their first months in day care included environmental and child-related factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Rikke Pilmann; Larnkjær, Anni; Ritz, Christian

    2018-01-01

    AIM: We examined the frequency and potential risk factors for respiratory infections, diarrhoea and absences in infants during their first months in day care. METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised 269 Danish infants aged 8-14 months and was part of a study that examined how probiotics...... affected absences from day care due to respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. The risk factors examined were the household, child characteristics and type of day care facility. Parents registered upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), diarrhoea and day...... care absences on web-based questionnaires. RESULTS: Over a mean of 5.6 months in day care, 36% and 20% of the infants had at least one URTI or LRTI and 60% had diarrhoeal episodes. The risk of at least one URTI was increased by previous respiratory infections, with an odds ratio (OR) of 2...

  15. Potential Biological and Climatic Factors That Influence the Incidence and Persistence of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed H. Salaheldin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus (A/H5N1 of clade 2.2.1 is endemic in poultry in Egypt where the highest number of human infections worldwide was reported. During the last 12 years the Egyptian A/H5N1 evolved into several genotypes. In 2007-2014 vaccinated poultry suffered from antigenic drift variants of clade 2.2.1.1 and in 2014/2015 an unprecedented upsurge of A/H5N1 clade 2.2.1.2 occurred in poultry and humans. Factors contributing to the endemicity or re-emergence of A/H5N1 in poultry in Egypt remain unclear. Here, three potential factors were studied: climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, biological fitness in vitro, and pathogenicity in domestic Pekin and Muscovy ducks. Statistical analyses using negative binomial regression models indicated that ambient temperature in winter months influenced the spread of A/H5N1 in different geographic areas analyzed in this study. In vitro, at 4 and 56°C 2.2.1.1 and recent 2.2.1.2 viruses were more stable than other viruses used in this study. Further, Pekin ducks were more resistant than Muscovy ducks and the viruses were excreted for up to 2 weeks post-infection assuming a strong role as a reservoir. Taken together, ambient temperature in winter months potentially contributes to increasing outbreaks in some regions in Egypt. Heat stability of clade 2.2.1.1 and recent 2.2.1.2 viruses probably favors their persistence at elevated temperatures. Importantly, asymptomatically infected Pekin ducks may play an important role in the spread of avian and human-like A/H5N1 in Egypt. Therefore, control measures including targeted surveillance and culling of silently infected Pekin ducks should be considered.

  16. Potential Biological and Climatic Factors That Influence the Incidence and Persistence of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaheldin, Ahmed H.; Kasbohm, Elisa; El-Naggar, Heba; Ulrich, Reiner; Scheibner, David; Gischke, Marcel; Hassan, Mohamed K.; Arafa, Abdel-Satar A.; Hassan, Wafaa M.; Abd El-Hamid, Hatem S.; Hafez, Hafez M.; Veits, Jutta; Mettenleiter, Thomas C.; Abdelwhab, Elsayed M.

    2018-01-01

    Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus (A/H5N1) of clade 2.2.1 is endemic in poultry in Egypt where the highest number of human infections worldwide was reported. During the last 12 years the Egyptian A/H5N1 evolved into several genotypes. In 2007-2014 vaccinated poultry suffered from antigenic drift variants of clade 2.2.1.1 and in 2014/2015 an unprecedented upsurge of A/H5N1 clade 2.2.1.2 occurred in poultry and humans. Factors contributing to the endemicity or re-emergence of A/H5N1 in poultry in Egypt remain unclear. Here, three potential factors were studied: climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed), biological fitness in vitro, and pathogenicity in domestic Pekin and Muscovy ducks. Statistical analyses using negative binomial regression models indicated that ambient temperature in winter months influenced the spread of A/H5N1 in different geographic areas analyzed in this study. In vitro, at 4 and 56°C 2.2.1.1 and recent 2.2.1.2 viruses were more stable than other viruses used in this study. Further, Pekin ducks were more resistant than Muscovy ducks and the viruses were excreted for up to 2 weeks post-infection assuming a strong role as a reservoir. Taken together, ambient temperature in winter months potentially contributes to increasing outbreaks in some regions in Egypt. Heat stability of clade 2.2.1.1 and recent 2.2.1.2 viruses probably favors their persistence at elevated temperatures. Importantly, asymptomatically infected Pekin ducks may play an important role in the spread of avian and human-like A/H5N1 in Egypt. Therefore, control measures including targeted surveillance and culling of silently infected Pekin ducks should be considered. PMID:29636730

  17. Factors that Influence the Use of Climate Forecasts: Evidence from the 1997/98 El Niño Event in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, Benjamin S.; Broad, Kenneth; Petty, Aaron M.

    2004-11-01

    This article analyzes the use of climate forecasts among members of the Peruvian fishing sector during the 1997/98 El Niño event. It focuses on the effect of the time of hearing a forecast on the socioeconomic responses to the forecast. Findings are based on data collected from a survey of 596 persons in five ports spanning the length of the Peruvian coast. Respondents include commercial and artisanal fishers, plant workers, managers, and firm owners.These data fill an important gap in the literature on the use of forecasts. Though modelers have discussed the effects of the timing of the dissemination and reception of forecasts, along with other factors, on acting on a forecast once it has been heard, few researchers have gathered empirical evidence on these topics.The 1997/98 El Niño event was covered extensively by the media throughout Peru, affording the opportunity to study the effect of hearing forecasts on actions taken by members of a population directly impacted by ENSO events. Findings of this study examine the relationships among 1) socioeconomic variables, including geographic factors, age, education, income level, organizational ties, and media access; 2) time of hearing the forecast; and 3) actions taken in response to the forecast. Socioeconomic variables have a strong effect on the time of hearing the forecast and the actions taken in response to the forecast; however, time of hearing does not have an independent effect on taking action. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the application of forecasts.A supplement to this article is available online (dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-11-Orlove)

  18. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  19. Climatic classification of the Karst

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava Ramirez Jesus Antonio; Bahamon Ayala, Sandra Marcela; Lopez Romero Maria Ines

    2000-01-01

    Climate is one the main factors in forming or modifying Karsts, or its resulting forms. The determining climatic elements of Karst characteristics are humidity, air circulation and temperature. Many Karstic processes show characteristics corresponding to a given climate sequence. In the present article we discuss the relation between climate and Karst as well as a climate classification based on the structure of the Karsts

  20. Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

  1. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors - a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-03-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events.

  2. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors – a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-01-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events

  3. Improvement of gamma-ray Sn transport calculations including coherent and incoherent scatterings and secondary sources of bremsstrahlung and fluorescence: Determination of gamma-ray buildup factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitsos, S.; Diop, C.M.; Assad, A.; Nimal, J.C.; Ridoux, P.

    1996-01-01

    Improvements of gamma-ray transport calculations in S n codes aim at taking into account the bound-electron effect of Compton scattering (incoherent), coherent scattering (Rayleigh), and secondary sources of bremsstrahlung and fluorescence. A computation scheme was developed to take into account these phenomena by modifying the angular and energy transfer matrices, and no modification in the transport code has been made. The incoherent and coherent scatterings as well as the fluorescence sources can be strictly treated by the transfer matrix change. For bremsstrahlung sources, this is possible if one can neglect the charged particles path as they pass through the matter (electrons and positrons) and is applicable for the energy range of interest for us (below 10 MeV). These improvements have been reported on the kernel attenuation codes by the calculation of new buildup factors. The gamma-ray buildup factors have been carried out for 25 natural elements up to 30 mean free paths in the energy range between 15 keV and 10 MeV

  4. [Study on sensitivity of climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1) based on classification and regression tree and wavelet analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Hong; Lin, Xiao-ling; Dai, Xiang-yu; Gao, Li-dong; Chen, Bi-yun; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhu, Pei-juan; Tian, Huai-yu

    2012-05-01

    To analyze the periodicity of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha in year 2009 and its correlation with sensitive climatic factors. The information of 5439 cases of influenza A (H1N1) and synchronous meteorological data during the period between May 22th and December 31st in year 2009 (223 days in total) in Changsha city were collected. The classification and regression tree (CART) was employed to screen the sensitive climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1); meanwhile, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to assess and compare the periodicity of the pandemic disease and its association with the time-lag phase features of the sensitive climatic factors. The results of CART indicated that the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the sensitive climatic factors for the popularity of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha. The peak of the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) was in the period between October and December (Median (M) = 44.00 cases per day), simultaneously the daily minimum temperature (M = 13°C) and daily absolute humidity (M = 6.69 g/m(3)) were relatively low. The results of wavelet analysis demonstrated that a period of 16 days was found in the epidemic threshold in Changsha, while the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the relatively sensitive climatic factors. The number of daily reported patients was statistically relevant to the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity. The frequency domain was mostly in the period of (16 ± 2) days. In the initial stage of the disease (from August 9th and September 8th), a 6-day lag was found between the incidence and the daily minimum temperature. In the peak period of the disease, the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were negatively relevant to the incidence of the disease. In the pandemic period, the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) showed periodic features; and the sensitive climatic factors did have a "driving

  5. Spatial relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junjun; Wu, Ruidong; He, Daming; Yang, Feiling; Hu, Peijun; Lin, Shiwei; Wu, Wei; Diao, Yixin; Guo, Yang

    2018-06-04

    Capturing the full range of climatic diversity in a reserve network is expected to improve the resilience of biodiversity to climate change. Therefore, a study on systematic conservation planning for climatic diversity that explicitly or implicitly hypothesizes that regions with higher climatic diversity will support greater biodiversity is needed. However, little is known about the extent and generality of this hypothesis. This study utilized the case of Yunnan, southwest China, to quantitatively classify climatic units and modeled 4 climatic diversity indicators, including the variety of climatic units (VCU), rarity of climatic units (RCU), endemism of climatic units (ECU) and a composite index of climatic units (CICD). We used 5 reliable priority conservation area (PCA) schemes to represent the areas with high biodiversity conservation value. We then investigated the spatial relationships between the 4 climatic diversity indicators and the 5 PCA schemes and assessed the representation of climatic diversity within the existing nature reserves. The CICD exhibited the best performance for indicating high conservation value areas, followed by the ECU and RCU. However, contrary to conventional knowledge, VCU did not show a positive association with biodiversity conservation value. The rarer or more endemic climatic units tended to have higher reserve coverage than the more common units. However, only 28 units covering 10.5% of the land in Yunnan had more than 17% of their areas protected. In addition to climatic factors, topography and human disturbances also significantly affected the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value. This analysis suggests that climatic diversity can be an effective surrogate for establishing a more robust reserve network under climate change in Yunnan. Our study improves the understanding of the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity and helps build an evidence-based foundation for

  6. Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkins, John R.; Houle, Daniel; Messier, Christian; Gravel, Dominique

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes

  7. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  8. Response to Therapy and Outcomes in Oropharyngeal Cancer Are Associated With Biomarkers Including Human Papillomavirus, Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor, Gender, and Smoking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Bhavna; Cordell, Kitrina G.; Lee, Julia S.; Prince, Mark E.; Tran, Huong H.; Wolf, Gregory T.; Urba, Susan G.; Worden, Francis P.; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Teknos, Theodoros N.; Eisbruch, Avraham; Tsien, Christina I.; Taylor, Jeremy; D'Silva, Nisha J.; Yang, Kun; Kurnit, David M.; Bradford, Carol R.

    2007-01-01

    Induction chemotherapy and concurrent chemoradiation for responders or immediate surgery for non-responders is an effective treatment strategy head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) of the larynx and oropharynx. Biomarkers that predict outcome would be valuable in selecting patients for therapy. In this study, the presence and titer of high risk human papilloma virus (HPV) and expression of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) in pre-treatment biopsies, as well as smoking and gender were examined in oropharynx cancer patients enrolled in an organ sparing trial. HPV16 copy number was positively associated with response to therapy and with overall and disease specific survival, whereas EGFR expression, current or former smoking behavior, and female gender (in this cohort) were associated with poor response and poor survival in multivariate analysis. Smoking cessation and strategies to target EGFR may be useful adjuncts for therapy to improve outcome in the cases with the poorest biomarker profile

  9. Education in the family as a factor of pedagogical correction of legal consciousness in juvenile probation and parole, including registered in criminal-executive inspection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gud M. B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the concept of "legal consciousness of minors", the peculiarities of its formation in adolescence, and a pedagogical process of correction of legal consciousness adolescents in conditions of serving criminal sentences, when registration with the penal inspection. Analyzes one of the factors of correction of legal consciousness – raising in the family of convicted minors consisting on the account in the criminal-Executive inspection. The specifics of family upbringing and their impact on the efficiency of re-socialization of minors consisting on the account in criminally-executive inspection, as well as reducing recidivism. Examples of departmental statistics on the role of the family in preventing delinquency and crime among convicted adolescents. The basic directions of improvement of family education in the framework of the activities of employees of criminally-executive inspections.

  10. Factors for incomplete adherence to antiretroviral therapy including drug refill and clinic visits among older adults living with human immunodeficiency virus - cross-sectional study in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Abbie; Ford, Nathan; El-Khatib, Ziad

    2018-03-01

    To assess adherence outcomes to antiretroviral therapy (ART) of recipients ≥50 years in Soweto, South Africa. This was a secondary data analysis for a cross-sectional study at two HIV clinics in Soweto. Data on ART adherence and covariates were gathered through structured interviews with HIV 878 persons living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving ART. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations. PLHIV ≥50 years (n = 103) were more likely to miss clinic visits during the last six months than PLHIV aged 25-49 (OR 2.15; 95%CI 1.10-4.18). PLHIV ≥50 years with no or primary-level education were less likely to have missed a clinic visit during the last six months than PLHIV with secondary- or tertiary-level education in the same age category (OR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1-1.1), as were PLHIV who did not disclose their status (OR 0.2; 95%CI 0-1.1). There was no evidence of increased risk for non-adherence to ART pills and drug refill visits among older PLHIV. Missing a clinic visit was more common among older PLHIV who were more financially vulnerable. Further studies are needed to verify these findings and identify new risk factors associated with ART adherence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Influence of climatic factors in productivity of three been of the genus Boletus associated with hybrid of Castanea

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez Fernandez, A.; Fernandez de Ana Magan, F. J.

    1997-01-01

    Phenologic response of three species of ectomycorrhizal fungi (Boletus fragans, Boletus edulis and Boletus erythropus) asociated with hybrid chestnut were analized. To this objective, we use the data of ten years (1984-1993) and the principal component analysis was applied to delimit the climatic variables that have influence on these species yield. We obtained an equations that could permit to predit the number of fruitbody produced depending on climatic conditions

  12. Ecology of Anopheline (Diptera, Culicidae, malaria vectors around the Serra da Mesa Reservoir, State of Goiás, Brazil: 1 - Frequency and climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Érico Guimarães

    Full Text Available The ecology of anopheline species (Diptera, Culicidae was studied in the vicinity of the Serra da Mesa Reservoir, State of Goiás, Brazil. Climatic factors and frequency of anopheline populations were analyzed. Bimonthly human-bait and Shannon trap captures were conducted for 36 consecutive months (January 1997 through December 1999. A total of 5,205 adult anophelines belonging to five species were collected. Anopheles darlingi was the most frequently collected anopheline (61.4%, followed by An. albitarsis s.l. (35.4%, An. triannulatus. (2.5%, An. oswaldoi (0.4%, and An. evansae (0.2%. The water level and vegetation along the banks of the reservoir were crucial to the frequency of the various anopheline species. Climatic factors had a secondary influence. The reservoir's water-level stability, increased frequency of An. darlingi, and the arrival of gold prospectors were responsible for the increase in malaria cases.

  13. Treatment outcome and prognostic factor analysis in transplant-eligible Chinese myeloma patients receiving bortezomib-based induction regimens including the staged approach, PAD or VTD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chim Chor

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have reported promising outcomes using a staged approach, in which bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone was used only in 14 patients with suboptimal response to VAD (vincristine/adriamycin/dexamethasone before autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT. Here we compared the outcomes of the staged approach with frontline PAD (bortezomib/doxorubicin/dexamethasone or VTD (bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone induction, and analysed prognostic factors for outcome. Patients and methods Ninety-one transplant-eligible Chinese patients received three induction regimens prior to ASCT [staged approach (N = 25, PAD (N = 31, VTD (N = 35]. and received thalidomide maintenance for 2 years post-ASCT. Results 43 (47.3% patients had International Staging System (ISS III disease. By an intention-to-treat analysis, the overall CR/nCR rate were 37.4% post-induction, and 62.6% post-ASCT. Five-year overall (OS and event-free (EFS survivals were 66% and 45.1%. There was no difference of the post-induction CR/nCR rate, EFS or OS between patients induced by these three regimens. Moreover, ISS III disease did not affect CR/nCR rates. Multivariate analysis showed that ISS and post-ASCT CR/nCR impacted OS while ISS and post-induction CR/nCR impacted EFS. Conclusions These three induction regimens produced comparable and favorable outcomes in myeloma. The unfavorable outcome of ISS stage III persisted despite upfront/early use of bortezomib. CR/nCR predicted favorable survivals.

  14. Rheumatoid factor testing in Spanish primary care: A population-based cohort study including 4.8 million subjects and almost half a million measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsley, Klara; Miller, Anne; Luqmani, Raashid; Fina-Aviles, Francesc; Javaid, Muhammad Kassim; Edwards, Christopher J; Pinedo-Villanueva, Rafael; Medina, Manuel; Calero, Sebastian; Cooper, Cyrus; Arden, Nigel; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel

    2018-02-26

    Rheumatoid factor (RF) testing is used in primary care in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); however a positive RF may occur without RA. Incorrect use of RF testing may lead to increased costs and delayed diagnoses. The aim was to assess the performance of RF as a test for RA and to estimate the costs associated with its use in a primary care setting. A retrospective cohort study using the Information System for the Development of Research in Primary Care database (contains primary care records and laboratory results of >80% of the Catalonian population, Spain). Participants were patients ≥18 years with ≥1 RF test performed between 01/01/2006 and 31/12/2011, without a pre-existing diagnosis of RA. Outcome measures were an incident diagnosis of RA within 1 year of testing, and the cost of testing per case of RA. 495,434/4,796,498 (10.3%) patients were tested at least once. 107,362 (21.7%) of those tested were sero-positive of which 2768 (2.6%) were diagnosed with RA within 1 year as were 1141/388,072 (0.3%) sero-negative participants. The sensitivity of RF was 70.8% (95% CI 69.4-72.2), specificity 78.7% (78.6-78.8), and positive and negative predictive values 2.6% (2.5-2.7) and 99.7% (99.6-99.7) respectively. Approximately €3,963,472 was spent, with a cost of €1432 per true positive case. Although 10% of patients were tested for RF, most did not have RA. Limiting testing to patients with a higher pre-test probability would significantly reduce the cost of testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  15. Relation between natural and anthropogenic factors in the redistribution of radionuclides on the 30 km Chernobyl NPP territory, including the result of countermeasures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazakov, S.V.; Sukhoruchkin, A.K.; Arkhipov, N.P.; Arkhipov, A.N.; Loginova, L.S.; Meshalkin, G.S.

    1997-01-01

    Before the accident natural and anthropogenic ecosystems occupied about 90% of 30-km zone area, including 36% of forest ecosystem, ploughed lands -28%, meadows and bogs - 18%. About 10% of total areas were occupied by ameliorated lands, separate water reservoirs - 2.8% relatively large area. Ten years after the Chernobyl accident the lands structure was changed: Areas of forest territories became larger (up to 12-13%). Areas of territories occupied by different technical constructions, roads were increased too. Contamination of different objects of 30-km zone territory is very uneven, for instance variation of 137 Cs contamination of soil reaches the same thousand times (From 0.1-5 up to 10000 and more Ci/km 2 )

  16. A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate and climate-independent factors on the lifecycle of the tick Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Antoinette; Ginsberg, Howard; Hickling, Graham J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

    2016-01-01

    The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

  17. Influence of Climatic Factors on the Efficiency of Disposal Metal- Hydride Unit for the Double-Fuel Low-Speed Internal Combustion Engine of Gas Tankers

    OpenAIRE

    Cherednichenko, Oleksandr Costyntunovich; Tkach, Mykhaylo Romanovich

    2017-01-01

    Contemporary tendencies in the development of ship power engineering have been analyzed. Consideration was given to the specific features of the transportation of liquefied natural gas by gas tankers. The prospects of utilization of the secondary energy resources of marine double-fuel low-speed diesel engines were defined. The metal hydride units of a continuous action were offered for this purpose. The need for the estimation of the influence of climatic factors on the efficiency of disposal...

  18. Impact of climatic factors to the percentage of young in the population of brown hare (Lepus europaeus P in the Bačka district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beuković Miloš

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitations, greatly affect the dynamics of the hare number and population. Climatic factors directly affect the physiological and reproductive processes of both individuals and entire populations, or indirectly, through the availability of food, competition with other species, predators and other. The age structure of the hare population at the end of the period of reproduction is an important indicator of the population growth that is used for planning the level of explotation of the hare population (hunting. The rational use of the hare's population is one of the most important protection procedures and it should be well monitored and controlled by the hunting professionals. We used the average monthly temperature and the sum of monthly precipitations in the hare reproductive period (March-September during ten years (2000 - 2009, together with the percent of young in the hare population, on the territory of Bačka, for multiple regression (stepwise analysis. Results of the regression analysis show an association between the percentage of young hares and the influence of climatic factors. The average temperature and sum of precipitation in June, are the strongest predictor of the percent of young in the hare’s population in Bačka. According to the coefficient of determination (R2=0.50 climatic parameters account for 50% of variance in the percentage of young hares in Bačka. The regression correlation coefficient of all factors was R=0.70, which is on the border line between medium and high correlation.

  19. Accumulation and localization of secondary metabolites with protective function in grain crops growing under elevated CO2 concentration and selected stress factors of climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Mastiláková, Monika

    2017-01-01

    An ongoing climate change exposes plants to a whole range of environmental factors contributing to ever-increasing stressful conditions. The stress response of plants can reduce the yield of cereals, which make up a large part of food, thus increasing a threat to food security. It is therefore important to cultivate stress-resistant plants to ensure food security. The ability to cultivate resistant plants requires to understand their defensive mechanisms. Non-specific stress indicators with a...

  20. Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    The aims of the US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Research Program are to improve assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change and to define and reduce uncertainties through selected research. This project will address: The regional and seasonal details of the expected climatic changes; how rapidly will these changes occur; how and when will the climatic effects of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases be first detected; and the relationships between greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change and changes caused by other external and internal factors. The present project addresses all of these questions. Many of the diverse facets of greenhouse-gas-related climate research can be grouped under three interlinked subject areas: modeling, first detection and supporting data. This project will include the analysis of climate forcing factors, the development and refinement of transient response climate models, and the use of instrumental data in validating General Circulation Models (GCMs)

  1. Factors affecting cone production in Pinus pinaster Ait.: lack of growth-reproduction trade-offs but significant effects of climate and tree and stand characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Bravo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain. Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO, local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees, tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results. Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.

  2. Factors affecting cone production in Pinus pinaster Ait.: lack of growth-reproduction trade-offs but significant effects of climate and tree and stand characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, F.; Maguire, D.A.; González-Martínez, S.G.

    2017-11-01

    Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain). Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain) during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson) model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO), local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees), tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results). Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency) influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.

  3. Factors affecting cone production in Pinus pinaster Ait.: lack of growth-reproduction trade-offs but significant effects of climate and tree and stand characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bravo, F.; Maguire, D.A.; González-Martínez, S.G.

    2017-01-01

    Aim of study: Our main goal is to determine the relationship between cone production and radial growth in Pinus pinaster Ait. under different climatic conditions across the Iberian Peninsula. Area of study: Coca Intensive Sampling Plateau, Northern Plateau (Spain). Material and methods: Cone counts were conducted on an intensive monitoring plot in Coca (North-Central Spain) during the years 2000, 2006 and 2007. A ZIP (zero-inflated Poisson) model was adjusted for simultaneously estimating the probability of obtaining crop cones and its amount. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was used as explanatory variable, together with a wide variety of tree and local stand variables. Climate (as evaluated by NAO), local stand density (here estimated from the six nearest trees), tree size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency significantly influenced both occurrence and intensity of cone production. Main results: ZIP models for predicting reproductive effort seems an adequate tool to predict reproductive responses to climatic fluctuations and the resulting future species distribution in the face of climate change, as well as to identify silviculture actions that would promote reproductive success in naturally-regenerated stands, list and discuss relevant results (including numeric values of experimental results). Research highlights: Climate, stand density and tree conditions (size and vigor, competition and growth efficiency) influence significantly both cone occurrence and intensity of fruiting as shown by a ZIP model. As the climate variables included in the model (based on Northern Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) are general and easily obtained, the proposed model has practical applicability to predicting Pinus pinaster cone production in the Iberian Peninsula.

  4. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  5. Relationship of social factors including trust, control over life decisions, problems with transport and safety, to psychological distress in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Anne W; Chittleborough, Catherine; Gill, Tiffany K; Winefield, Helen; Baum, Fran; Hiller, Janet E; Goldney, Robert; Tucker, Graeme; Hugo, Graeme

    2012-03-01

    Psychological distress encompasses anxiety and depression with the previous studies showing that psychological distress is unequally distributed across population groups. This paper explores the mechanisms and processes which may affect the distribution of psychological distress, including a range of individual and community level socioeconomic determinants. Representative cross-sectional data was collected for respondents aged 16+ from July 2008 to June 2009, as a part of the South Australian Monitoring and Surveillance System (SAMSS) using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). Univariate and multivariate analyses (n = 5,763) were conducted to investigate the variables that were associated with psychological distress. The overall prevalence of psychological distress was 8.9%. In the multivariate model, females, those aged 16-49, respondents single with children, unable to work or unemployed, with a poorer family financial situation, earning $20,000 or less, feeling safe in their home some or none of the time, feeling as though they have less then total control over life decisions and sometimes experiencing problems with transport, were significantly more likely to experience psychological distress. This paper has demonstrated the relationship between low-income, financial pressure, less than optimal safety and control, and high-psychological distress. It is important that the groups highlighted as vulnerable be targeted in policy, planning, and health promotion and prevention campaigns.

  6. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  7. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  8. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriksen, Thormod; Kanestroem, Ingolf

    2001-01-01

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  9. Prevalência e fatores associados a fogachos em mulheres climatéricas e pós-climatéricas Prevalence and factors associated with hot flashes in climacteric and post-climacteric women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iândora Krolow Timm Sclowitz

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Com o objetivo de determinar a prevalência de fogachos e fatores associados, em mulheres entre 40 e 69 anos de idade, provenientes de uma amostra representativa da população da cidade de Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, realizou-se um estudo transversal. O processo de amostragem foi em múltiplos estágios, e a coleta de dados, realizada através de entrevista e questionário auto-aplicado. Foram incluídas 879 mulheres. A prevalência ponto e a prevalência de episódio de fogachos foram, respectivamente, de 30,1% e 53,2%. Os fatores estatisticamente associados a fogachos atuais foram a categoria menopausal de pré-menopausa (RP = 2,33 e pós-menopausa (RP = 2,66; idade de 45 a 49 anos (RP = 1,34 e de 50 a 54 anos (RP = 1,42; status sócio-econômico mais baixo (RP = 2,16; não uso de anticoncepção hormonal após os 40 anos (RP = 1,40; obesidade (RP = 1,39; sobrepeso (RP = 1,32 e viver sem companheiro (RP = 0,80. Dada a alta prevalência do sintoma, é necessário que os serviços de saúde se organizem para lidar com a mulher climatérica.A cross-sectional study was conducted on the prevalence of hot flashes and associated factors among women from 40 to 69 years old, from a population-based sample in the city of Pelotas, southern Brazil. A multi-stage sampling process was used, and data were collected through an interview and a self-applied questionnaire. A total of 879 women were included. Point prevalence and lifetime prevalence were 30.1% and 53.2%, respectively. Factors associated with hot flashes were: pre-menopausal status (RP = 2.33 and post-menopausal status (RP = 2.66; age 45-49 years (RP = 1.34 and 50-54 years (RP = 1.42; lower social class (RP = 2.16; no use of a hormonal contraception method after 40 years of age (RP = 1.40; obesity (RP = 1.39 and overweight (RP = 1.32; and not having a partner (RP = 0.80. High prevalence of this symptom indicates that health facilities should be prepared to deal with problems encountered

  10. Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qingxia; Wu, Zhiyong; Singh, Vijay P.; Sadeghi, S. H. R.; He, Hai; Lu, Guihua

    2017-06-01

    The Xijiang River is known as the Golden Watercourse because of its role in the development of the Pearl River Delta Regional Economic System in China, which was made possible by its abundant water resources. At present, the hydrological regime of the Xijiang River has now become complicated, the water shortages and successive droughts pose a threat to regional economic development. However, the complexity of hydroclimatological processes with emphasizes on drought has not been comprehended. In order to effectively predict and develop the adaptation strategies to cope with the water scarcity damage caused by hydrological droughts, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the relationship between hydrological droughts and pre/post-dependent hydroclimatological factors. To accomplish this, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) was utilized to reveal the periodic variation in hydrological droughts that is characterized by the Standardized Drought Index (SDI). In addition, the cross-wavelet transform method was applied to investigate the correlation between large-scale climate indices and drought. The results showed that hydrological drought had the most significant response to spring ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), and the response lags in sub-basins were mostly 8-9 months except that in Yujiang River were mainly 5 or 8 months. Signal reservoir operation in the Yujiang River reduced drought severity by 52-95.8% from January to April over the 2003-2014 time period. Similarly, the cascade reservoir alleviated winter and spring droughts in the Hongshuihe River Basin. However, autumn drought was aggravated with severity increased by 41.9% in September and by 160.9% in October, so that the land surface models without considering human intervention must be used with caution in the hydrological simulation. The response lags of the VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) to hydrological drought were different in the sub-basins. The response lag for the

  11. Impacts of land surface properties and atmospheric CO2 on the Last Glacial Maximum climate: a factor separation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Munhoven

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Many sensitivity studies have been carried out, using climate models of different degrees of complexity to test the climate response to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. Here, instead of adding the forcings successively as in most previous studies, we applied the separation method of U. Stein et P. Alpert 1993, in order to determine rigorously the different contributions of the boundary condition modifications, and isolate the pure contributions from the interactions among the forcings. We carried out a series of sensitivity experiments with the model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator, investigating the contributions of the ice sheet expansion and elevation, the lowering of the atmospheric CO2 and of the vegetation cover change on the LGM climate. The separation of the ice cover and orographic contributions shows that the ice albedo effect is the main contributor to the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas orography has only a local cooling impact over the ice sheets. The expansion of ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere causes a disruption of the tropical precipitation, and a southward shift of the ITCZ. The orographic forcing mainly contributes to the disruption of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a redistribution of the precipitation, but weakly impacts the tropics. The isolated vegetation contribution also induces strong cooling over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere that further affects the tropical precipitation and reinforce the southward shift of the ITCZ, when combined with the ice forcing. The combinations of the forcings generate many non-linear interactions that reinforce or weaken the pure contributions, depending on the climatic mechanism involved, but they are generally weaker than the pure contributions. Finally, the comparison between the LGM simulated climate and climatic reconstructions over Eurasia suggests that our results reproduce well the south-west to

  12. Changes in Tibetan Plateau latitude as an important factor for understanding East Asian climate since the Eocene: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ran; Jiang, Dabang; Ramstein, Gilles; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippert, Peter C.; Yu, Entao

    2018-02-01

    Previous climate modeling studies suggest that the surface uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau (TP) is a crucial parameter for the onset and intensification of the East Asian monsoon during the Cenozoic. Most of these studies have only considered the Himalaya-TP in its present location between ∼26°N and ∼40°N despite numerous recent geophysical studies that reconstruct the Himalaya-TP 10° or more of latitude to the south during the early Paleogene. We have designed a series of climate simulations to explore the sensitivity of East Asian climate to the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Our simulations suggest that the East Asian climate strongly depends on the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Surface uplift of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the subtropics intensifies aridity throughout inland Asia north of ∼40°N and enhances precipitation over East Asia. In contrast, the rise of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the tropics only slightly intensifies aridity in inland Asia north of ∼40°N, and slightly increases precipitation in East Asia. Importantly, this climate sensitivity to the latitudinal position of the Himalaya-TP is non-linear, particularly for precipitation across East Asia. The simulated precipitation patterns across East Asia are significantly different between our scenarios in which a proto-plateau is situated between ∼11°N and ∼25°N and between ∼20°N and ∼33°N, but they are similar when the plateau translates northward from between ∼20°N and ∼33°N to its modern position. Our simulations, when interpreted in the context of climate proxy data from Central Asia, support geophysically-based paleogeographic reconstructions in which the southern margin of a modern-elevation proto-Himalaya-TP was located at ∼20°N or further north in the Eocene.

  13. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Gervasi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  14. CONTRIBUTION OF SATELLITE-BORN INFORMATION TO CLIMATE SCIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Observed climate processes play important role in understanding the ongoing changes in the climate system. Our paper intends to present this cross-section of climate science illustrated by selected satellite images and diagrams in four parts. (i. Technical possibilities of the observations are briefly surveyed first. Many satellite platforms and devices started working in the 1980 and 1990s, definitely for climate purposes. (ii. Climate forcing factors and their radiation effects are comprehended, including direct observation of solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol concentration allowing us to compare natural factors to the anthropogenic ones. (iii. Detection of changes in the Earth climate system follows next, including the atmosphere, the oceans and the cryosphere, as well. (iv. Finally, satellite-born results in validation of climate models are presented in three aspects: reconstruction of present climate, validation of simulated changes and investigation of feedback mechanisms driving climate sensitivity to the external forcing factors. The above possibilities of using satellite information in climate science are mostly illustrated by key figures of the IPCC AR5 Report (2013.

  15. Analyzing the Effects of Climate Factors on Soybean Protein, Oil Contents, and Composition by Extensive and High-Density Sampling in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenwen; Yang, Ruping; Wu, Tingting; Wu, Cunxiang; Sun, Shi; Zhang, Shouwei; Jiang, Bingjun; Tian, Shiyan; Liu, Xiaobing; Han, Tianfu

    2016-05-25

    From 2010 to 2013, 763 soybean samples were collected from an extensive area of China. The correlations between seed compositions and climate data were analyzed. The contents of crude protein and water-soluble protein, total amount of protein plus oil, and most of the amino acids were positively correlated with an accumulated temperature ≥15 °C (AT15) and the mean daily temperature (MDT) but were negatively correlated with hours of sunshine (HS) and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The correlations of crude oil and most fatty acids with climate factors were opposite to those of crude protein. Crude oil content had a quadratic regression relationship with MDT, and a positive correlation between oil content and MDT was found when the daily temperature was soybean protein and oil contents. The study illustrated the effects of climate factors on soybean protein and oil contents and proposed agronomic practices for improving soybean quality in different regions of China. The results provide a foundation for the regionalization of high-quality soybean production in China and similar regions in the world.

  16. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  17. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2017-10-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  18. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou, Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; Lipper, Leslie

    Abstract Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use

  19. Evaluation of Socio-Economic Factors that Determine Adoption of Climate Compatible Freshwater Supply Measures at Farm Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veraart, Jeroen A.; Duinen, van Rianne; Vreke, Jan

    2017-01-01

    The availability of freshwater resources in soil and groundwater bodies in the southwestern part of The Netherlands is expected to decrease during the agricultural growing season because of an expected increase of freshwater demands and a changing climate. This expected shortage of fresh water

  20. Climate-smart crop production in semi-arid areas through increased knowledge of varieties, environment and management factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murungweni, C.; Wijk, van M.T.; Smaling, E.M.A.; Giller, K.E.

    2016-01-01

    In large regions of sub-Saharan Africa, semi-arid conditions are likely to increase with climate change, yet these regions are becoming more important to feed production zones due to increasing population pressure. A production system in the semi-arid south eastern Zimbabwe was studied to assess

  1. Analytic study of determining factors in negotiation policy of developed countries regarding UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, S.W. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    As the awareness on the global warming diffuses worldwide, the UNFCCC was officially adopted during the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio. Even though Korea is not included in the direct control target countries on emission amount because it is now classified as a developing country, pressures from developed countries to include Korea in the control target countries are mounting as its international standing improves as evidenced in its admission into OECD. The purpose of this study is to review the negotiation policies of developed countries and to analyze the determining factors. The major result of analysis shows that the lower population increase ratio with high population density, lower economic growth ratio, lower growth ratios of metal, machine, and plant industries, and lower relative importance and the growth ratios of coal and petroleum which emit lot of green house gases among energy sources, the more these countries are active in the reinforcement of responsibility and duties of UNFCCC. This proves that these factors are to determine the costs associated with reducing green house gases. In Korea, population growth is high, economic growth ratio is very high, and it has an industrial structure that emits lot of green house gases. The consumption of coal and petroleum is high among energy sources. Therefore, in the process of future negotiation, special features of ultra- dynamic Korean economy which is in contrast to the stable economies of major advanced countries and the tremendous costs associated with reducing green house gases should be stressed. It should be also emphasized that the rules of duty sharing that can be established together with fair, cost-effective, and enduring economic development be devised. 22 refs., 5 figs., 64 tabs.

  2. Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-03-01

    Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based dengue early warning system in a dengue-endemic country, taking Malaysia as a case study. We reviewed the relationship between climate and dengue derived from statistical modeling, laboratory tests, and field studies. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and the World Health Organization publications, and assessed climate factors and their influence on dengue cases, mosquitoes, and virus and recent development in the field of climate and dengue. Few studies in Malaysia have emphasized the relationship between climate and dengue. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity are associated with dengue; however, these relationships were not consistent. Climate change projections for Malaysia show a mounting risk for dengue in the future. Scientific studies on climate and dengue enhance dengue surveillance in the long run. It is essential for institutions in Malaysia to promote research on climate and vector-borne diseases to advance the development of climate-based early warning systems. Together, effective strategies that improve existing research capacity, maximize the use of limited resources, and promote local-international partnership are crucial for sustaining research on climate and health.

  3. Climate. The earth and its atmosphere in the changing times. 3. upd. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchal, Christoph; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich

    2016-01-01

    The Climate Change Challenge. Throughout the world, great efforts are being made to better understanding the development of the global climate and to model future trends. What characterizes the weather what the climate? How did the climate history of the Earth? What factors are affecting the climate? In the third, updated edition 2016 of the widespread attractive and scientifically-based four-volume nonfiction series ENERGY, AIR, POWER and MOBILITY which clearly explained basic knowledge of the climate system is expanded to include the latest information about the IPCC and keep up-to-date insight into modern research, especially the REKLIM project of the Helmholtz Association of German research Centres. [de

  4. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  5. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Peru, 1994-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Chowell, G.; Cazelles, B.; Broutin, Hélène; Munayco, C. V.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies. Methods Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate fac...

  6. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  7. The Copenhagen Climate Summit(Dec. 2009) in the Spanish Media: Journalistic Norms and Narrative Factors; La Cumbre del Clima de Copenhague (dic. 2009) en los Medios de Comunicacion Espanoles: las Reglas de Interaccion Periodistica y los Elementos Narrativos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopera, E

    2011-05-13

    The main aim of this technical report is to analyze the media coverage of the Copenhagen Climate Summit published by selected Spanish media six national and regional newspapers for general and financial information plus the most highly watched Spanish television news -. Quantitative and qualitative researches have been used to address the empirical section of this report including, among others, content analysis, narrative factors and different statistics to estimate the relationship between variables. The most significant results are: 1) between 50 and 80% of the print media coverage comes from wire services; 2) this Climate Summit achieves a good position among the most important media agenda issues but, in the half of the cases, a high position on the agenda does not correspond to a high volume of media coverage; 3) it hasn't been identified any relationship between the media's adherence to interacting journalistic norms and the amount of media coverage; 4) dramatization is the journalistic norm to which media shows more adherence; 5) media publishing more articles from wire services are those showing a higher adherence to journalistic norms; 6) narrative factors are organized following a story line plot with introduction, body (or climax) and ending of the event and actions, receiving climax period the highest levels of media coverage. (Author) 93 refs.

  8. The Copenhagen Climate Summit(Dec. 2009) in the Spanish Media: Journalistic Norms and Narrative Factors; La Cumbre del Clima de Copenhague (dic. 2009) en los Medios de Comunicacion Espanoles: las Reglas de Interaccion Periodistica y los Elementos Narrativos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopera, E.

    2011-05-13

    The main aim of this technical report is to analyze the media coverage of the Copenhagen Climate Summit published by selected Spanish media six national and regional newspapers for general and financial information plus the most highly watched Spanish television news -. Quantitative and qualitative researches have been used to address the empirical section of this report including, among others, content analysis, narrative factors and different statistics to estimate the relationship between variables. The most significant results are: 1) between 50 and 80% of the print media coverage comes from wire services; 2) this Climate Summit achieves a good position among the most important media agenda issues but, in the half of the cases, a high position on the agenda does not correspond to a high volume of media coverage; 3) it hasn't been identified any relationship between the media's adherence to interacting journalistic norms and the amount of media coverage; 4) dramatization is the journalistic norm to which media shows more adherence; 5) media publishing more articles from wire services are those showing a higher adherence to journalistic norms; 6) narrative factors are organized following a story line plot with introduction, body (or climax) and ending of the event and actions, receiving climax period the highest levels of media coverage. (Author) 93 refs.

  9. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  10. The association of patient safety climate and nurse-related organizational factors with selected patient outcomes: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausserhofer, Dietmar; Schubert, Maria; Desmedt, Mario; Blegen, Mary A; De Geest, Sabina; Schwendimann, René

    2013-02-01

    Patient safety climate (PSC) is an important work environment factor determining patient safety and quality of care in healthcare organizations. Few studies have investigated the relationship between PSC and patient outcomes, considering possible confounding effects of other nurse-related organizational factors. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between PSC and patient outcomes in Swiss acute care hospitals, adjusting for major organizational variables. This is a sub-study of the Swiss arm of the multicenter-cross sectional RN4CAST (Nurse Forecasting: Human Resources Planning in Nursing) study. We utilized data from 1630 registered nurses (RNs) working in 132 surgical, medical and mixed surgical-medical units within 35 Swiss acute care hospitals. PSC was measured with the 9-item Safety Organizing Scale. Other organizational variables measured with established instruments included the quality of the nurse practice environment, implicit rationing of nursing care, nurse staffing, and skill mix levels. We performed multilevel multivariate logistic regression to explore relationships between seven patient outcomes (nurse-reported medication errors, pressure ulcers, patient falls, urinary tract infection, bloodstream infection, pneumonia; and patient satisfaction) and PSC. In none of our regression models was PSC a significant predictor for any of the seven patient outcomes. From our nurse-related organizational variables, the most robust predictor was implicit rationing of nursing care. After controlling for major organizational variables and hierarchical data structure, higher levels of implicit rationing of nursing care resulted in significant decrease in the odds of patient satisfaction (OR=0.276, 95%CI=0.113-0.675) and significant increase in the odds of nurse reported medication errors (OR=2.513, 95%CI=1.118-5.653), bloodstream infections (OR=3.011, 95%CI=1.429-6.347), and pneumonia (OR=2.672, 95%CI=1.117-6.395). We failed to confirm our

  11. Drought trends based on the VCI and its correlation with climate factors in the agricultural areas of China from 1982 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Xiaojin; Liang, Liang; Shen, Qiu; Sun, Qin; Zhang, Lianpeng; Liu, Zhixiao; Zhao, Shuhe; Qin, Zhihao

    2016-11-01

    Drought is a type of natural disaster that has the most significant impacts on agriculture. Regional drought monitoring based on remote sensing has become popular due to the development of remote sensing technology. In this study, vegetation condition index (VCI) data recorded from 1982 to 2010 in agricultural areas of China were obtained from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in each drought were analyzed. The relationships between drought and climate factors were also analyzed. The results showed that from 1982 to 2010, the agricultural areas that experienced frequent and severe droughts were mainly concentrated in the northwestern areas and Huang-Huai Plain. Moreover, the VCI increased in the majority of agricultural areas, indicating that the drought frequency decreased over time, and the decreasing trend in the southern region was more notable than that in the northern region. A correlation analysis showed that temperature and wind velocity were the main factors that influenced drought in the agricultural areas of China. From a regional perspective, excluding precipitation, the climate factors had various effects on drought in different regions. However, the correlation between the VCI and precipitation was low, possibly due to the widespread use of artificial irrigation technology, which reduces the reliance of agricultural areas on precipitation.

  12. [Climate- and vector-borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bygbjerg, I.C.; Schioler, K.L.; Konradsen, F.

    2009-01-01

    The predicted changes in climate have raised concerns that vector-borne diseases may emerge or expand in tempered regions. Malaria, leishmaniasis and tick-borne illnesses are discussed in terms of climate change and their endemic potential, especially in Denmark. While climate may play an important...... role in disease patterns, it is evident that transmission potential is governed by a complex of factors, including socio-economy, health-care capacity and ecology. In Denmark, malaria and leishmaniasis are unlikely to become public health problems, whereas the potential for tick-borne illnesses may...

  13. Sectoral use of climate information in Europe: A synoptic overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Bruno Soares

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Society can benefit from usable climate information to better prepare and adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate variability and change. An adequate and effective provision of climate information – from historical observations through to seasonal forecasts, and multi-decadal climate change projections – is critical to inform planning and decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors. Central to this are the end-users of climate information and a growing emphasis on tailored climate information and services shaped by user needs. However, knowledge about the use of climate information across European economic sectors is limited. This paper identifies the spectrum of sectoral information requirements across a number of sectors including agriculture, forestry, energy, water, tourism, insurance, health, emergency services and transport sectors, drawing from an online survey (n = 462 and interviews with (potential users of climate information (n = 80. This analysis reveals shared opportunities across sectors including the potential application of decadal climate predictions. In addition, common barriers and enablers to the uptake of climate information were also noted including the format of the information provided, the need for compatibility with existing in-house systems, and the perceived credibility and trust of information providers. This analysis also points towards a perceived increasing fragmentation of available information and the desire amongst end-users for a European body able to centralise and coordinate climate data. We highlight some of the current factors that still need to be adequately addressed in order to enhance the uptake and application of climate information in decision-making across European economic sectors. Keywords: User needs, Climate information, Decision-making, Climate services, Europe

  14. Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART I – A simple sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Hashemi

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Regionalized and at-site flood frequency curves exhibit considerable variability in their shapes, but the factors controlling the variability (other than sampling effects are not well understood. An application of the Monte Carlo simulation-based derived distribution approach is presented in this two-part paper to explore the influence of climate, described by simulated rainfall and evapotranspiration time series, and basin factors on the flood frequency curve (ffc. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the paper should not be interpreted as reflecting possible climate changes, but the results can provide an indication of the changes to which the flood frequency curve might be sensitive. A single site Neyman Scott point process model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells (Cowpertwait, 1994; 1995, has been employed to generate synthetic rainfall inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The time series of the potential evapotranspiration (ETp demand has been represented through an AR(n model with seasonal component, while a simplified version of the ARNO rainfall-runoff model (Todini, 1996 has been employed to simulate the continuous discharge time series. All these models have been parameterised in a realistic manner using observed data and results from previous applications, to obtain ‘reference’ parameter sets for a synthetic case study. Subsequently, perturbations to the model parameters have been made one-at-a-time and the sensitivities of the generated annual maximum rainfall and flood frequency curves (unstandardised, and standardised by the mean have been assessed. Overall, the sensitivity analysis described in this paper suggests that the soil moisture regime, and, in particular, the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time, can be considered as a unifying link between the perturbations to the several parameters and their effects on the standardised and unstandardised ffcs, thus revealing the

  15. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  16. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  17. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  18. The Assessment of Organisational Climate in Bedouin Arab Schools in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Saad, Ismael

    1995-01-01

    Summarizes results of a study designed to identify organizational climate factors in Israel's 29 Bedouin Arab elementary schools and to explore their relation to certain teacher and school-level variables, including sex, educational level, tenure, teachers' origin, school type, and school size. The most important organizational climate factor was…

  19. The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

  20. A study of the effect of seasonal climatic factors on the electrical resistivity response of three experimental graves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jervis, John R.; Pringle, Jamie K.

    2014-09-01

    Electrical resistivity surveys have proven useful for locating clandestine graves in a number of forensic searches. However, some aspects of grave detection with resistivity surveys remain imperfectly understood. One such aspect is the effect of seasonal changes in climate on the resistivity response of graves. In this study, resistivity survey data collected over three years over three simulated graves were analysed in order to assess how the graves' resistivity anomalies varied seasonally and when they could most easily be detected. Thresholds were used to identify anomalies, and the ‘residual volume' of grave-related anomalies was calculated as the area bounded by the relevant thresholds multiplied by the anomaly's average value above the threshold. The residual volume of a resistivity anomaly associated with a buried pig cadaver showed evidence of repeating annual patterns and was moderately correlated with the soil moisture budget. This anomaly was easiest to detect between January and April each year, after prolonged periods of high net gain in soil moisture. The resistivity response of a wrapped cadaver was more complex, although it also showed evidence of seasonal variation during the third year after burial. We suggest that the observed variation in the graves' resistivity anomalies was caused by seasonal change in survey data noise levels, which was in turn influenced by the soil moisture budget. It is possible that similar variations occur elsewhere for sites with seasonal climate variations and this could affect successful detection of other subsurface features. Further research to investigate how different climates and soil types affect seasonal variation in grave-related resistivity anomalies would be useful.

  1. Dimensions of Safety Climate among Iranian Nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konjin, Z Naghavi; Shokoohi, Y; Zarei, F; Rahimzadeh, M; Sarsangi, V

    2015-10-01

    Workplace safety has been a concern of workers and managers for decades. Measuring safety climate is crucial in improving safety performance. It is also a method of benchmarking safety perception. To develop and validate a psychometrics scale for measuring nurses' safety climate. Literature review, subject matter experts and nurse's judgment were used in items developing. Content validity and reliability for new tool were tested by content validity index (CVI) and test-retest analysis, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) with varimax rotation was used to improve the interpretation of latent factors. A 40-item scale in 6 factors was developed, which could explain 55% of the observed variance. The 6 factors included employees' involvement in safety and management support, compliance with safety rules, safety training and accessibility to personal protective equipment, hindrance to safe work, safety communication and job pressure, and individual risk perception. The proposed scale can be used in identifying the needed areas to implement interventions in safety climate of nurses.

  2. The disappearance of Picea at the end of Upper Pleistocene in the Basque-Cantabrian region: climatic and anthropogenic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uzquiano, P.

    1995-01-01

    Charcoal analysis from archaeological sites in Cantabrian region (North of Spain) has yielded evidence of Picea charcoal in Late-Wurmian sediments. Taking into account the behaviour of this taxon in Quaternary climatic cycles, data suggest the presence of small localities of low-density populations near each catchment area of prehistoric settlements. The different function of each site and hunter-gatherers'logistical moves closer to the economic resources are responsible for the presence or absence of Picea, and for the disappearance of its last localities. (author). 16 refs., 4 figs

  3. Culture and Climate: Factors That Influence the Academic Success of African American Students in Prelicensure Nursing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Teri A

    2015-12-01

    Despite numerous calls to diversify the nursing workforce, little progress has been made in increasing the numbers of African American graduates from prelicensure nursing programs, thus widening the diversity gap in the number of African Americans who enter the RN workforce. An integrative literature review was conducted to determine whether, from the students' perspective, the institutional climate and culture influenced their academic success. Themes of Alienation and Isolation, Persistent Determination, and Difficulty Seeking Help emerged as having an influence on students' academic success. On the basis of this review, professional development programs on topics such as implicit bias, microaggressions, and other unintentional and unconscious behaviors are recommended. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  4. Control of climate and litter quality on leaf litter decomposition in different climatic zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyue; Wang, Wei

    2015-09-01

    Climate and initial litter quality are the major factors influencing decomposition rates on large scales. We established a comprehensive database of terrestrial leaf litter decomposition, including 785 datasets, to examine the relationship between climate and litter quality and evaluate the factors controlling decomposition on a global scale, the arid and semi-arid (AS) zone, the humid middle and humid low (HL) latitude zones. Initial litter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentration only increased with mean annual temperature (MAT) in the AS zone and decreased with mean annual precipitation (MAP) in the HL zone. Compared with nutrient content, MAT imposed less effect on initial litter lignin content than MAP. MAT were the most important decomposition driving factors on a global scale as well as in different climatic zones. MAP only significantly affected decomposition constants in AS zone. Although litter quality parameters also showed significant influence on decomposition, their importance was less than the climatic factors. Besides, different litter quality parameters exerted significant influence on decomposition in different climatic zones. Our results emphasized that climate consistently exerted important effects on decomposition constants across different climatic zones.

  5. Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

    2014-08-01

    This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

  6. Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

    2016-09-01

    Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

  7. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  8. Multiple transcription factors directly regulate Hox gene lin-39 expression in ventral hypodermal cells of the C. elegans embryo and larva, including the hypodermal fate regulators LIN-26 and ELT-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wan-Ju; Reece-Hoyes, John S; Walhout, Albertha J M; Eisenmann, David M

    2014-05-13

    Hox genes encode master regulators of regional fate specification during early metazoan development. Much is known about the initiation and regulation of Hox gene expression in Drosophila and vertebrates, but less is known in the non-arthropod invertebrate model system, C. elegans. The C. elegans Hox gene lin-39 is required for correct fate specification in the midbody region, including the Vulval Precursor Cells (VPCs). To better understand lin-39 regulation and function, we aimed to identify transcription factors necessary for lin-39 expression in the VPCs, and in particular sought factors that initiate lin-39 expression in the embryo. We used the yeast one-hybrid (Y1H) method to screen for factors that bound to 13 fragments from the lin-39 region: twelve fragments contained sequences conserved between C. elegans and two other nematode species, while one fragment was known to drive reporter gene expression in the early embryo in cells that generate the VPCs. Sixteen transcription factors that bind to eight lin-39 genomic fragments were identified in yeast, and we characterized several factors by verifying their physical interactions in vitro, and showing that reduction of their function leads to alterations in lin-39 levels and lin-39::GFP reporter expression in vivo. Three factors, the orphan nuclear hormone receptor NHR-43, the hypodermal fate regulator LIN-26, and the GATA factor ELT-6 positively regulate lin-39 expression in the embryonic precursors to the VPCs. In particular, ELT-6 interacts with an enhancer that drives GFP expression in the early embryo, and the ELT-6 site we identified is necessary for proper embryonic expression. These three factors, along with the factors ZTF-17, BED-3 and TBX-9, also positively regulate lin-39 expression in the larval VPCs. These results significantly expand the number of factors known to directly bind and regulate lin-39 expression, identify the first factors required for lin-39 expression in the embryo, and hint at a

  9. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

    2015-10-01

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

  10. Climate considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutchinson, I.P.G.; Ellison, R.D.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the conditions under which rainfall and snowmelt result in infiltration, percolation, and leachate formation, and to develop guidelines for incorporating these processes into the mine waste disposal regulations. This is important because in mine waste, and under certain circumstances, these processes can result in conditions which pose a threat to surface and ground water quality. This paper provides a general overview of infiltration, percolation, and leachate formation. It incorporates a discussion of the methods that can be used to quantify infiltration and the climatic and physical site and waste conditions under which percolation and leachate formation occur. Reference is made to case histories on infiltration, ground water recharge, and analytical procedures for calculating infiltration. An approach to infiltration prediction is outlined, and the paper concludes with a discussion on how climatic factors and prediction of infiltration could be incorporated into the regulations

  11. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Xue

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

  12. Factores de riesgo asociados a la hipertensión arterial en mujeres climatéricas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Lugones Botell

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y transversal en 8 consultorios médicos del Policlínico Docente "26 de Julio", del municipio Playa, con las mujeres hipertensas comprendidas entre las edades de 40 a 59 años, las que fueron estudiadas en el período comprendido entre el 1ero. de febrero de 1999 y el 31 de diciembre de 1999. En cada consultorio se partió del registro de dispensarización y se incluyó a todas las mujeres hipertensas esenciales. Como criterio de exclusión se estableció no incluir a mujeres diabéticas con complicaciones renales o del sistema nervioso central, así como tampoco a nefrópatas. Se aplicó un cuestionario en el que se recogieron los siguientes datos: características del síndrome climatérico, realización o no de ejercicios físicos sistemáticos, valoración nutricional, hábito de fumar y tipo de menopausia. Se utilizó como método estadístico las pruebas de Chi cuadrado y Z para comparación de proporciones. Se concluyó que el síndrome climatérico se presentó con similares características en hipertensas y normotensas, que la mayoría de las hipertensas eran obesas o con sobrepeso, así como también fumadoras, y que no se realizaban ejercicios físicos sistemáticos por parte de la mayoría de las hipertensas.

  13. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

    2015-01-01

    The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

  14. Geopolitics of climate change: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bošnjaković Branko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the geopolitical elements of the emerging discourse on how to control, and cope with climate change. Two complementary approaches may be distinguished: the actor-related approach analyses the positioning of states and interest groups, which develop strategies on coping with climate change; the other approach addresses processes and problem areas (physical, economic, demographic… emerging in the geographic space as a consequence of, or linked to climate change. With failing mitigation policies and instruments, the urgency of adaptation to climate change is increasing. Assessment of regional consequences of climate change includes the perceptions and motivations of presumed losers or winners. New security implications related to climate change are emerging in the Arctic, South-East Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Energy supply security is a dominant factor in geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics of climate change is inextricably linked to many other issues of globalization. Significant shift of global power raises the discussion of ethical responsibility. Climate change is evolving as a testing ground for competitiveness and innovation potential of political and economic models in achieving sustainability.

  15. Climate information needs in southern Africa: A review

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lötter, Johanna M

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available User needs assessments, the co-production of climate information, and the creation of tailored climate services are critical factors in providing increasing useful and accessible products for the management of climate risks and informing climate...

  16. Direct and indirect effects of climate on demography and early growth of Pinus sylvestris at the rear edge: changing roles of biotic and abiotic factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Benavides

    Full Text Available Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation. Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.

  17. Direct and indirect effects of climate on demography and early growth of Pinus sylvestris at the rear edge: changing roles of biotic and abiotic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Raquel; Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Escudero, Adrián; Hódar, José A; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Rincón, Ana M; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition) and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation). Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.

  18. Risk Factors for the Presence of Chikungunya and Dengue Vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), Their Altitudinal Distribution and Climatic Determinants of Their Abundance in Central Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhimal, Meghnath; Gautam, Ishan; Joshi, Hari Datt; O’Hara, Robert B.; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Background The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal. Methodology/Principal Findings We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to

  19. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  20. Protecting climate with forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Robert B.; Randerson, James T.; Canadell, Josep G.; Anderson, Ray G.; Avissar, Roni; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Caldeira, Ken; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Field, Christopher B.; Hungate, Bruce A.; Jobbágy, Esteban G.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Nosetto, Marcelo D.; Pataki, Diane E.

    2008-10-01

    Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects—avoided deforestation, forest restoration, and afforestation—provide the greatest climate value, because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast, the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions, where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or, worse, are counter-productive.

  1. Protecting climate with forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, Robert B; Randerson, James T; Anderson, Ray G; Pataki, Diane E; Canadell, Josep G; Avissar, Roni; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Bonan, Gordon B; Caldeira, Ken; Field, Christopher B; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hungate, Bruce A; Jobbagy, Esteban G; Nosetto, Marcelo D; Kueppers, Lara M

    2008-01-01

    Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects-avoided deforestation, forest restoration, and afforestation-provide the greatest climate value, because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast, the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions, where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or, worse, are counter-productive.

  2. Seasonal and geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery (shigellosis) and associated climate risk factors in Kon Tam Province in Vietnam from 1999 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hu Suk; Ha Hoang, T T; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Lee, Mihye; Grace, Delia; Phung, Dac Cam; Thuc, Vu Minh; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2017-06-21

    Bacillary dysentery (BD) is an acute bacterial infection of the intestine caused by Shigella spp., with clinical symptoms ranging from fever to bloody diarrhoea to abdominal cramps to tenesmus. In Vietnam, enteric bacterial pathogens are an important cause of diarrhoea and most cases in children under 5 years of age are due to Shigella strains. The serogroups S. flexneri and S. sonnei are considered to be the most common. The main objective of this study was to, for the first time, assess the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam, and to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province, where the highest rate of bacillary dysentery was observed from 1999 to 2013. The seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD was assessed in Vietnam using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. In addition, negative binomial regression models were used to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province, from 1999 to 2013. Overall, incidence rates of BD have slightly decreased over time (except for an extremely high incidence in 2012 in the north of Vietnam). The central regions (north/south central coast and central highlands) had relatively high incidence rates, whereas the northwest/east and Red River Delta regions had low incidence rates. Overall, seasonal plots showed a high peak in the mid-rainy reason and a second smaller peak in the early or late rainy season. The incidence rates significantly increased between May and October ("wet season") across the country. In Kon Tum Province, temperature, humidity, and precipitation were found to be positively associated with the incidence of BD. Our findings provide insights into the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam and its associated climate risk factors in Kon Tum Province. This study may help clinicians and the general public to better understand the timings of

  3. Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shohidullah Miah

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha Hamilton as a single species accounts 12% for more than half of the total marine catches. About 2% of the entire population of the country is directly or indirectly engaged with Hilsa fishing. Hilsa has a wide geographical distribution in Asia from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. Particularly large stocks are found in Upper Bay of Bengal (BoB region sustained by the large river systems. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75% from Bangladesh water, 15% from Myanmar, 5% from India and 5% from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behavior as that of Atlantic Salmon fish (Salmo sp.. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced or even destroyed. During last two decades hilsa production from inland water declined about 20%, whereas marine water yield increased about 3 times. Major Hilsa to catch has been gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Hilsa fish ascend for spawning migration from sea into estuaries. It has been found that the major spawning areas have been shifted to the lower estuarine regions of Hatia, Sandwip and Bhola. At the spawning ground of Hilsa, the fishing level F=1.36 yr−1, where in the river Meghna the Fmsy=0.6 yr−1 and exploitation rate E=0.70 is (Emsy>0.5. Oceanographic changes viz. high turbidity increased flooding, more tidal action and changes of salinity etc. have accelerated the change of migration patterns of spawning, growth and its production. Hilsa fecundity ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 million eggs for fish ranging in length from 35 to 50 cm. Hilsa fecundity is declining in different areas due to climate change and the declining fecundity impacting greatly on Hilsa production. Due to shifting of the spawning ground at the lower

  4. Quantifying the Climate Impacts of Land Use Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change mitigation efforts that involve land use decisions call for comprehensive quantification of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. This is particularly imperative for analyses of the climate impact of bioenergy production, as land use change is often the single most important factor in determining bioenergy’s sustainability. However, current metrics of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems used for policy applications—including biofuels life cycle analyses—account only for biogeochemical climate services (greenhouse gas regulation), ignoring biophysical climate regulation services (regulation of water and energy balances). Policies thereby run the risk of failing to advance the best climate solutions. Here, we present a quantitative metric that combines biogeochemical and biophysical climate services of terrestrial ecosystems, the ‘climate regulation value’ (CRV), which characterizes the climate benefit of maintaining an ecosystem over a multiple-year time frame. Using a combination of data synthesis and modeling, we calculate the CRV for a variety of natural and managed ecosystem types within the western hemisphere. Biogeochemical climate services are generally positive in unmanaged ecosystems (clearing the ecosystem has a warming effect), and may be positive or negative (clearing the ecosystem has a cooling effect) for managed ecosystems. Biophysical climate services may be either positive (e.g., tropical forests) or negative (e.g., high latitude forests). When averaged on a global scale, biogeochemical services usually outweigh biophysical services; however, biophysical climate services are not negligible. This implies that effective analysis of the climate impacts of bioenergy production must consider the integrated effects of biogeochemical and biophysical ecosystem climate services.

  5. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Nosocomial infections constitute a global health problem. Objective: To explore the relationship between nosocomial infection rates (NIRs) and climatic factors including temperature and relative humidity in Guangzhou area of China. Methods: 30892 patients in our hospital in 2009 were investigated for ...

  6. Satellite-derived NDVI, LST, and climatic factors driving the distribution and abundance of Anopheles mosquitoes in a former malarious area in northwest Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantur Juri, María Julia; Estallo, Elizabet; Almirón, Walter; Santana, Mirta; Sartor, Paolo; Lamfri, Mario; Zaidenberg, Mario

    2015-06-01

    Distribution and abundance of disease vectors are directly related to climatic conditions and environmental changes. Remote sensing data have been used for monitoring environmental conditions influencing spatial patterns of vector-borne diseases. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and climatic factors (temperature, humidity, wind velocity, and accumulated rainfall) on the distribution and abundance of Anopheles species in northwestern Argentina using Poisson regression analyses. Samples were collected from December, 2001 to December, 2005 at three localities, Aguas Blancas, El Oculto and San Ramón de la Nueva Orán. We collected 11,206 adult Anopheles species, with the major abundance observed at El Oculto (59.11%), followed by Aguas Blancas (22.10%) and San Ramón de la Nueva Orán (18.79%). Anopheles pseudopunctipennis was the most abundant species at El Oculto, Anopheles argyritarsis predominated in Aguas Blancas, and Anopheles strodei in San Ramón de la Nueva Orán. Samples were collected throughout the sampling period, with the highest peaks during the spring seasons. LST and mean temperature appear to be the most important variables determining the distribution patterns and major abundance of An. pseudopunctipennis and An. argyritarsis within malarious areas. © 2015 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  7. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Hsin-I Hsiao; Man-Ser Jan; Hui-Ju Chi

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 201...

  8. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  9. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  10. Agriculture: Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  11. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  12. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  13. Economic factor environmental protection. Productivity of the German environmental and climate protection industry in international competition; Wirtschaftsfaktor Umweltschutz. Leistungsfaehigkeit der deutschen Umwelt- und Klimaschutzwirtschaft im internationalen Vergleich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legler, Harald; Krawczyk, Olaf [Niedersaechsisches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (NIW), Hannover (Germany); Walz, Rainer; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Frietsch, Rainer [Fraunhofer Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2006-05-15

    The analysis on the economic factor environment and the German environmental industry on international competition is faced to methodological limits, since the environmental industry does not present itself as an homogeneous sector. The study is organized in the following chapters: introduction - the importance of environmental industry; classification of environmental and climate protection industry; productivity volume and production structure; international competition for potential environmental protection products; environmental protection industry and innovative performance. Integrated environmental solutions are of increasing significance, avoiding emissions and products and production process from beginning on. All known forecast indicate an expansive market development. In addition the rising prices for crude oil may push the search for innovative solutions to substitute fossil energy sources. The environmental industry should look for globally transferable solutions in order to promote global sustainable growth.

  14. Projecting distribution of the overwintering population of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan, China with analysis on key influencing climatic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shao-Ji; Liu, Xiao-Fei; Fu, Da-Ying; Huang, Wei; Wang, Xue-Ying; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Lü, Jian-Ping; Ye, Hui

    2015-01-01

    Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera