Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. 2006 activity assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2006: market conditions (prices on the electricity market, prices on the CO 2 emission allowances market, weather conditions, institutional aspects of the CO 2 market, power generation and consumption, situation at the borders, fuel prices), traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and Powernext liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Weather daily variation in winter and its effect on behavior and affective states in day-care children

Science.gov (United States)

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2011-05-01

This study aimed to analyze the impact of winter weather conditions on young children's behavior and affective states by examining a group of 61 children attending day-care centers in Florence (Italy). Participants were 33 males, 28 females and their 11 teachers. The mean age of the children at the beginning of the observation period was 24.1 months. The day-care teachers observed the children's behavioral and emotional states during the morning before their sleeping time and filled in a questionnaire for each baby five times over a winter period of 3 weeks. Air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and solar radiation data were collected every 15 min from a weather station located in the city center of Florence. At the same time, air temperature and relative humidity data were collected in the classroom and in the garden of each day-care center. We used multilevel linear models to evaluate the extent to which children's emotional and behavioral states could be predicted by weather conditions, controlling for child characteristics (gender and age). The data showed that relative humidity and solar radiation were the main predictors of the children's emotional and behavioral states. The outdoor humidity had a significant positive effect on frustration, sadness and aggression; solar radiation had a significant negative effect only on sadness, suggesting that a sunny winter day makes children more cheerful. The results are discussed in term of implications for parents and teachers to improve children's ecological environment.

Making, Mending and Growing in Feminist Speculative Fabulations: Design’s Unfaithful Daughters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jönsson, Li; Ståhl, Åsa; Forlano, Laura

2016-01-01

Drawing on a recent book by Stengers and Despret (2014), this conversation seeks to consider design research practices around critical and speculative design (Dunne & Raby, 2009, 2013) and speculative fabulation (Haraway, 2011) from a feminist perspective and, in particular, core feminist arguments......’s ethnographic work on gender, stating that “It matters what stories make worlds, what worlds make stories.” Bardzell (2010) describes a feminist HCI methodology as including: a commitment to both scientific and moral objectives, a connection to feminist theory, a deliberate use of methods based on values...... and goals, an empathic relationship with research participants, transparency around the role of the researcher along with their beliefs, co-construction of research, mixed methodologies and reflexivity. This conversation will draw inspiration from critical feminist theory such as Haraway’s cat’s cradle...

WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botos Horia Mircea

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

Paleo and present-day chemical weathering in lacustrine and riverine sediments in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roman Ross, Gabriela [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, San Carlos de Bariloche (Argentina). Centro Atomico Bariloche. Lab. de Analisis por Activacion Neutronica; Arribere, Maria A.; Guevara, Sergio Ribeiro [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, XX (Argentina)

1996-07-01

Neutron activation analysis was used to study the abundance, distribution and fraction of REE (Rare Earth Elements) and diagnostic elements (Th, Co, Cr, Sc, Rb, Sr) in sediments from Mascardi lake and Upper Manso river. The local weathering patterns of this watershed show a strong influence of volcanic rocks with a selective mobilization of the more soluble elements. These patterns are very similar to those observed in a sedimentary lacustrine core from Mascardi lake. Paleolimnological record indicates a change in local fluxes of water and sediments, and an increase in organic matter content since the last full-glacial maximum. However, the chemical composition of the sedimentary inputs has not changed significantly during the last 14000 years. Our data support the hypothesis that present-day and Holocene chemical weathering have similar characteristics. All of the above conclusions are based on geochemical parameters only. (author)

Paleo and present-day chemical weathering in lacustrine and riverine sediments in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roman Ross, Gabriela

1996-01-01

Neutron activation analysis was used to study the abundance, distribution and fraction of REE (Rare Earth Elements) and diagnostic elements (Th, Co, Cr, Sc, Rb, Sr) in sediments from Mascardi lake and Upper Manso river. The local weathering patterns of this watershed show a strong influence of volcanic rocks with a selective mobilization of the more soluble elements. These patterns are very similar to those observed in a sedimentary lacustrine core from Mascardi lake. Paleolimnological record indicates a change in local fluxes of water and sediments, and an increase in organic matter content since the last full-glacial maximum. However, the chemical composition of the sedimentary inputs has not changed significantly during the last 14000 years. Our data support the hypothesis that present-day and Holocene chemical weathering have similar characteristics. All of the above conclusions are based on geochemical parameters only. (author)

Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

Science.gov (United States)

Najman, M.

2010-09-01

Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

MIPS Observations of the Fabulous Four Debris Disks

Science.gov (United States)

Su, K. Y. L.; Stansberry, J. A.; Rieke, G. H.; Trilling, D. E.; Stapelfeldt, K. R.; Werner, M. W.; Beichman, C.; Chen, C.; Marengo, M.; Megeath, T.; Backman, D.; van Cleve, J.

2004-12-01

The Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) provides long-wavelength capability with imaging bands at 24, 70, and 160 um. We will present the MIPS images of the Fabulous Four Debris Disks: Beta Pictoris (A5 V), Epsilon Eridani (K2 V), Fomalhaut (A3 V) and Vega (A0 V). These systems discovered by IRAS possess large far-infrared excess emission above photosphere, indicating the existence of a circumstellar dusty disk. Given the main-sequence ages of these stars ( ˜12 Myr for Beta Pictoris, ˜730 Myr for Epsilon Eridani, ˜200 Myr for Fomalhaut, and ˜350 Myr for Vega), the dust in the systems could not be primordial as it would have been removed by radiation pressure and Poynting-Robertson drag on relatively short time scales ( ˜1E4 yr). The second-generation dust in such debris disks is thought to arise primarily from collisions between planetesimals (asteroids) and from cometary activity; however, details about the debris formation and evolution are not well understood. With the sensitivity and angular resolution of the Spitizer Space Telescope, the structures of these nearby debris disks were mapped in great detail to study the disks' spatial structures at mid- to far-infrared wavelengths. These high spatial resolution images provide unprecedented new constraints on the the dust properties in the systems and limits on the origin of dusty debris. Support for this work was provided by NASA through Contract Number 960785 issued by JPL/Caltech.

It´s called being fabulous! : Genus och sexualitet i de visuella praktikerna kring Youtube-fenomenet Pewdiepie

OpenAIRE

Abrahamsson, Ola

2013-01-01

Denna uppsats behandlar hur olika föreställningar kring genus och sexualitet tar sig uttryck, dels i de videos som producerar på internet av karaktären Pewdiepie men också i det material som fansen genererar. Studien fokusera på en specifik videohändelse, en sekvens där Pewdiepie ikläder sig en rosa boa och bland annat säger säger ”It’s not called being gay. It’s called being fabulous!” samt vad som görs med denna händelse, hur den remedieras och tas i bruk av fansen. Detta har jag gjort geno...

Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

2018-03-01

Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN and support vector machines (SVM are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples.

Fabulous Finales.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Richard; And Others

1992-01-01

Four elementary teachers present several suggestions for exciting end-of-the-school-year learning activities. Ideas include making math a field day, enjoying an imagination celebration, broadcasting a book fair, planning a turn-of-the-century picnic, celebrating school history, and participating in a moving up day. (SM)

Effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction in predicting growing degree days and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Lalic, B.; Francia, M.; Eitzinger, Josef; Podrascanin, Z.; Arsenic, I.

2016-01-01

Roč. 23, č. 1 (2016), s. 50-56 ISSN 1350-4827 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : venturia-inaequalis * temperature * equation * schemes * model * numerical weather prediction * disease prediction * verification * apple scab * growing degree days Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.411, year: 2016

Formation of halloysite from feldspar: Low temperature, artificial weathering versus natural weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Walter E.

1969-01-01

Weathering products formed on surfaces of both potassium and plagioclase feldspar (An70), which were continuously leached in a Soxhlet extraction apparatus for 140 days with 7.21 of distilled water per day at a temperature of approximately 78°C, are morphologically identical to natural products developed on potassium feldspars weathered under conditions of good drainage in the humid tropics. The new products, which first appear as tiny bumps on the feldspar surface, start to develop mainly at exposed edges but also at apparently random sites on flat cleavage surfaces. As weathering continues, the bumps grow outward from the feldspar surface to form tapered projections, which then develop into wide-based thin films or sheets. The thin sheets of many projections merge laterally to form one continuous flame-shaped sheet. The sheets formed on potassium feldspars may then roll to form tubes that are inclined at a high angle to the feldspar surface. Etch pits of triangular outline on the artificially weathered potassium feldspars serve as sites for development of continuous, non-rolled, hollow tubes. It is inferred from its morphology that this weathering product is halloysite or its primitive form. The product of naturally weathered potassium feldspars is halloysite . 4H2O.The flame-shaped films or sheets formed on artificially weathered plagioclase feldspar do not develop into hollow tubes, but instead give rise to a platy mineral that is most probably boehmite. These plates form within the flame-shaped films, and with continued weathering are released as the film deteriorates. There is no indication from this experiment that platy pseudohexagonal kaolinite forms from any of these minerals under the initial stage of weathering.

Pessimism Towards Gender Deconstruction in X: A Fabulous Child’s Story by Louis Gould

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paramita Ayuningtyas

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Research focuses on Lois Gould’s complex position in feminism movements as displayed by the pessimistic tone in one of her works. The primary data for this research were taken from the short story X: A Fabulous Child’s Story, published in 1972. The research used qualitative method that lies on library research, and to help analyze the topic, books, websites, and scientific journals were used. Kate Millet’s concept of an androgyny was also applied in order to study further about the character of X. The result of the discussion shows that even though considered progressive for its era for its effort to deconstruct rigid gender divisions, this short story also comes with an irony with its ending. The ending demonstrates that human beings cannot be free from sex and gender barriers. This result supports the idea that Gould is trapped between the feminist and the antifeminist movement. 

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days ... various road management activities and for better .... −0.8. 1.5. 0.0. Pir Panjal range (HP). 1989–90 to 2002–03. 14. Snow day. 2.2. −4.1 ..... ed days,. S. = snow day,. N. S. = no-snow day and. P. C. = per cent correct).

"Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

OpenAIRE

Elevant, Katarina

2013-01-01

Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

Two poems about “fabulous autumn” (V. Shalamov, A. Akhmatova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya V. Krotova

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article compares the poem «What spring in August?..» by V.Shalamov and «Fabulous autumn has built high dome...» by A. Akhmatova. It is proved that the two poems are dedicated to artistic interpretation of a similar psychological phenomenon – the feeling of spring, which suddenly appears in autumn (Shalamov – the eve of the autumn, in August. It is identified and analyzed a common theme as related features, significant differences in the interpretation of the two poets. It is suggested that Shalamov, creating a poem, remembered Akhmatova’s interpretation, as evidenced by its appeal to the characteristic of Akhmatova’s poetic techniques, for example, special semantic load of the final lines of the poem. Akhmatova corresponds to the text and specific stanzas of the poem by Shalamov. It is proved that the “dialogue” with Akhmatova and Shalamov is not accidental, and being in the art world so distant from each other, at first glance, creative people can see not only the obvious differences, but also the depth of intersection. Particular attention is given to the interest of Shalamov to acmeist poetics. It is proved that the closest to Shalamov’s poetry was the realization of laws of acmeism presented in the lyrics by Akhmatova. It is marked in the article parallels of art worlds of Shalamov and Akhmatova and proved how deep Shalamov is connected with the highest achievements of art of the Silver Age.

Weatherization Beyond the Numbers: Case Studies of Fifteen High-performing Weatherization Agencies - Conducted May 2011 through July 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rose, Erin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based on site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Arthur; Tauss, James; Chomos, Gerald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

Warfighter Physiological Status Monitoring (WPSM): Energy Balance and Thermal Status During a 10-Day Cold Weather U.S. Marine Corps Infantry Officer Course Field Exercise

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hoyt, Reed

2001-01-01

...) during a 10-day field exercise (FEX) at Quantico, VA. Question: Does intense physical activity, limited sleep, and restricted rations, combined with cold/damp weather, result in excessively negative energy balance and hypothermia? Methods...

[Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

Science.gov (United States)

Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

1978-11-01

An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

Weather types in Sosnowiec (Poland during the period 1999-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dobrowolska Ksenia

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The study presents the structure of weather types for the city of Sosnowiec during the period 1999-2013. The analysis was carried out on the basis of daily thermal data (the average daily air temperature, the minimum and maximum daily air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation. The data was obtained from a meteorological station belonging to the Department of Climatology at the Faculty of Earth Sciences at the University of Silesia. Weather types were established according to weather type classification after Woś (2010. 48 weather types were specified on the basis of a combination of 3 selected meteorological elements (temperature, cloudiness, precipitation. The number of days in the year and the frequency of particular thermal weather types, weather subtype, weather classes and weather types were characterized, and the changeability of weather types was analyzed. Furthermore, sequences of days with specific weather types were described. The analysis conducted has lead to the conclusion that, during the research period, the weather structure for the city of Sosnowiec was characterized by a great number of weather types observed, with relatively low frequency of occurrence. Weather throughout the year was dominated by warm weather types (3--, 2--, 2--, with weather marked as 310 – very warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (12.9% recorded as the most frequent, followed by 221 – moderately warm, very cloudy, with precipitation (11.6%, and 210 – moderately warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (11.4%as the least frequent one. A diversification in the number of particular classification units in consecutive years of the examined 15-year period does not display significant variability. Short sequences of 2 and 3 days dominated the selected sequences of specific weather types.

Insight into American tourists’ experiences with weather in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giddy Julia K.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Weather and climate are often important factors determining the success of a tourism destination and resultant satisfaction among tourists. This is particularly true for South Africa due the predominance of outdoor tourist attractions. Increasing numbers of international tourists have visited South Africa since the fall of apartheid, particularly those from the United States (U.S., which is an important market for South African tourism. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine a sample of American tourists’ experience with day-to-day weather and climatic conditions in South Africa. The results show that although respondents did not feel that climatic conditions were an important factor in motivations to visit the country, the day-to-day weather did often impact the enjoyment of their visit. Most notably, weather controlled their ability to participate in outdoor activities. In correlating accounts of unpleasant weather conditions with the meteorological records, a close association emerged, particularly for excessively high temperatures. This indicates that the experiences of American tourists are an accurate indication of climatic unsuitability for tourism, which poses threats to the South African outdoor tourism sector.

Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information

Science.gov (United States)

Byrnes, J.

1973-01-01

Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

Natural weathering of archaeo-metallurgical slags: an analog for present day vitrified wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahe-le-Carlier, C.

2000-01-01

The study of the natural alteration of ancient vitreous slags (100 to 4000 years) suggests a single global mechanism. In a first stage, weathering consists of a selective extraction of the modifier cations of glass (including Pb and Ba). This phenomenon is associated with an increase of the solution pH, inducing the glass dissolution (Al, Fe). Pb and Ba are extracted from weathered glass. Pb is located in Fe-hydroxides, Ba may form sulfides. The rate of alteration varies from 20 to 180 μm per 1000 years. (authors)

Weather and emotional state

Science.gov (United States)

Spasova, Z.

2010-09-01

Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

... AND HERE COMES THE WEATHER - Austrian TV and radio weather news in the eye of the public

Science.gov (United States)

Keul, A.; Holzer, A. M.; Wostal, T.

2010-09-01

Media weather reports as the main avenue of meteorological and climatological information to the general public have always been in the focus of critical investigation. Former research found that although weather reports are high-interest topics, the amount of information recalled by non-experts is rather low, and criticized this. A pilot study (Keul et al., 2009) by the Salzburg University in cooperation with ORF, the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation, used historic radio files on a fair-weather and a storm situation. It identified the importance of intelligible wording of the weather forecast messages for lay people. Without quality control, weather information can stimulate rumours, false comfort or false alarms. More qualitative and experimental research, also on TV weather, seems justified. This need for further research was addressed by a second and larger field experiment in the spring of 2010. The survey took place in Salzburg City, Austria, with a quota sample of about 90 lay persons. This time TV and radio weather reports were used and a more realistic listening and viewing situation was created by presenting the latest weather forecasts of the given day to the test persons in the very next hours after originally broadcasting them. It asked lay people what they find important in the weather reports and what they remember for their actual next-day use. Reports of a fairweather prognosis were compared with a warning condition. The weather media mix of the users was explored. A second part of the study was a questionnaire which tested the understanding of typical figures of speech used in weather forecasts or even meteorological terms, which might also be important for fully understanding the severe weather warnings. This leads to quantitative and qualitative analysis from which the most important and unexpected results are presented. Short presentation times (1.5 to 2 minutes) make Austrian radio and TV weather reports a narrow compromise between general

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

Photography of poetry: becomings of fabulation, expanding durations and instantaneous movements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila Melchior

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The passing of time in Alessandra Sanguinetti's photographs refer to aspects of the moving image if we assume its inherent qualities of change and duration. Those are images of an encounter between cinema and photography which contaminate each other reciprocally with its own processes by expanding towards each other. There is a real durational quality that comes from the referent (the daily life of the photographed characters which turns up into fabulation giving access to other beings and other specificities of time, all of them living in the image. That is the realm of the imaginary documentary in which images evoke bifurcations, take shape and gain movement inasmuch as they cease to allude to a given and objective notion of the real referring rather to a broader notion of time as indeterminate forms of duration. The ten years that goes by during the photographic essay 'The adventures of Guille and Belinda and The enigmatic meaning of their dreams' appears therefore to be shot in a single afternoon. The durations and becomings in the passage from the characters childhoods to their adult lives - or from a superficial game to an intense performative encounter with theirselves and Sanguinetti - are based in a free indirect speech form. This particular photographic fashion of the free indirect speech comes to light by the means of apparatuses, understood in a broad sense. Those apparatuses guide the photographic and relational processes leading to the creation of slits between objectivity and subjectivity that ultimately act in order to favor temporal and immaterial aspects in the images.

Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

2010-01-01

This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-11-01

Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010. This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.

Temporal, seasonal and weather effects on cycle volume: an ecological study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tin Tin Sandar

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cycling has the potential to provide health, environmental and economic benefits but the level of cycling is very low in New Zealand and many other countries. Adverse weather is often cited as a reason why people do not cycle. This study investigated temporal and seasonal variability in cycle volume and its association with weather in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city. Methods Two datasets were used: automated cycle count data collected on Tamaki Drive in Auckland by using ZELT Inductive Loop Eco-counters and weather data (gust speed, rain, temperature, sunshine duration available online from the National Climate Database. Analyses were undertaken using data collected over one year (1 January to 31 December 2009. Normalised cycle volumes were used in correlation and regression analyses to accommodate differences by hour of the day and day of the week and holiday. Results In 2009, 220,043 bicycles were recorded at the site. There were significant differences in mean hourly cycle volumes by hour of the day, day type and month of the year (p p Conclusions There are temporal and seasonal variations in cycle volume in Auckland and weather significantly influences hour-to-hour and day-to-day variations in cycle volume. Our findings will help inform future cycling promotion activities in Auckland.

Utilization of Live Localized Weather Information for Sustainable Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Usher, J.

2010-09-01

Authors: Jim Anderson VP, Global Network and Business Development WeatherBug® Professional Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional Localized, real-time weather information is vital for day-to-day agronomic management of all crops. The challenge for agriculture is twofold in that local and timely weather data is not often available for producers and farmers, and it is not integrated into decision-support tools they require. Many of the traditional sources of weather information are not sufficient for agricultural applications because of the long distances between weather stations, meaning the data is not always applicable for on-farm decision making processes. The second constraint with traditional weather information is the timeliness of the data. Most delivery systems are designed on a one-hour time step, whereas many decisions in agriculture are based on minute-by-minute weather conditions. This is especially true for decisions surrounding chemical and fertilizer application and frost events. This presentation will outline how the creation of an agricultural mesonet (weather network) can enable producers and farmers with live, local weather information from weather stations installed in farm/field locations. The live weather information collected from each weather station is integrated into a web-enabled decision support tool, supporting numerous on-farm agronomic activities such as pest management, or dealing with heavy rainfall and frost events. Agronomic models can be used to assess the potential of disease pressure, enhance the farmer's abilities to time pesticide applications, or assess conditions contributing to yield and quality fluctuations. Farmers and industry stakeholders may also view quality-assured historical weather variables at any location. This serves as a record-management tool for viewing previously uncharted agronomic weather events in graph or table form. This set of weather tools is unique and provides a

Weather conditions and voter turnout in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-07-01

While conventional wisdom assumes that inclement weather on election day reduces voter turnout, there is remarkably little evidence available to support truth to such belief. This paper examines the effects of temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall on voter turnout in 13 Dutch national parliament elections held from 1971 to 2010. It merges the election results from over 400 municipalities with election-day weather data drawn from the nearest weather station. We find that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

2005-05-01

Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

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Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

2015-05-01

weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

Probabilistic Harmonic Analysis on Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Considering Typical Weather Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bin, Che; Ruoying, Yu; Dongsheng, Dang; Xiangyan, Wang

2017-05-01

Distributed Generation (DG) integrating to the network would cause the harmonic pollution which would cause damages on electrical devices and affect the normal operation of power system. On the other hand, due to the randomness of the wind and solar irradiation, the output of DG is random, too, which leads to an uncertainty of the harmonic generated by the DG. Thus, probabilistic methods are needed to analyse the impacts of the DG integration. In this work we studied the harmonic voltage probabilistic distribution and the harmonic distortion in distributed network after the distributed photovoltaic (DPV) system integrating in different weather conditions, mainly the sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and the snowy day. The probabilistic distribution function of the DPV output power in different typical weather conditions could be acquired via the parameter identification method of maximum likelihood estimation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method was adopted to calculate the probabilistic distribution of harmonic voltage content at different frequency orders as well as the harmonic distortion (THD) in typical weather conditions. The case study was based on the IEEE33 system and the results of harmonic voltage content probabilistic distribution as well as THD in typical weather conditions were compared.

Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

2013-06-01

For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

Toward seamless weather-climate and environmental prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Brunet, Gilbert

2016-04-01

Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather, climate and atmospheric composition has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavor. This is partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and the realization is growing rapidly that it will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly or indirectly. One of the important endeavors of our societies is to remain at the cutting-edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the fully coupled environmental system: atmosphere (weather and composition), oceans, land surface (physical and biological), and cryosphere. This effort will provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all the socio-economic sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and climatic conditions, whether now or in the future. This emerging challenge was at the center of the World Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, 2014).The outcomes of the conference are described in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) book: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti Eds., WMO-No. 1156, 2015). It is freely available on line at the WMO website. We will discuss some of the outcomes of the conference for the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) long term goals and provide examples of seamless modelling and prediction across a range of timescales at convective and sub-kilometer scales for regional coupled forecasting applications at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

Pricing summer day options by good-deal bounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi; Ohashi, Kazuhiko

2009-01-01

Despite the worldwide popularity of CDD- and HDD-type weather derivatives based on temperature, a different class of weather derivatives, so-called summer day options, is more popular in Japan; the payoffs are determined by the number of summer days (i.e., the days whose average temperature is above 25 C) during the contract period. In this paper, we price such summer day options by the good-deal bounds of Cochrane and Saa-Requejo [Cochrane, J.H., and J. Saa-Requejo, 2000, Beyond Arbitrage: Good-Deal Asset Price Bounds in Incomplete Markets, Journal of Political Economy 108, 79-119.], using temperature data for Tokyo. (author)

Weather and children's physical activity; how and why do relationships vary between countries?

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Flo; Goodman, Anna; van Sluijs, Esther M F; Andersen, Lars Bo; Cardon, Greet; Davey, Rachel; Janz, Kathleen F; Kriemler, Susi; Molloy, Lynn; Page, Angie S; Pate, Russ; Puder, Jardena J; Sardinha, Luis B; Timperio, Anna; Wedderkopp, Niels; Jones, Andy P

2017-05-30

Globally most children do not engage in enough physical activity. Day length and weather conditions have been identified as determinants of physical activity, although how they may be overcome as barriers is not clear. We aim to examine if and how relationships between children's physical activity and weather and day length vary between countries and identify settings in which children were better able to maintain activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced. In this repeated measures study, we used data from 23,451 participants in the International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD). Daily accelerometer-measured physical activity (counts per minute; cpm) was matched to local weather conditions and the relationships assessed using multilevel regression models. Multilevel models accounted for clustering of days within occasions within children within study-cities, and allowed us to explore if and how the relationships between weather variables and physical activity differ by setting. Increased precipitation and wind speed were associated with decreased cpm while better visibility and more hours of daylight were associated with increased cpm. Models indicated that increases in these variables resulted in average changes in mean cpm of 7.6/h of day length, -13.2/cm precipitation, 10.3/10 km visibility and -10.3/10kph wind speed (all p European countries and Melbourne, Australia were the most active, and also better maintained their activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced compared to those in the US and Western Europe. We found variation in the relationship between weather conditions and physical activity between ICAD studies and settings. Children in Northern Europe and Melbourne, Australia were not only more active on average, but also more active given the weather conditions they experienced. Future work should consider strategies to mitigate the impacts of weather conditions, especially among young children, and

Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorđević Bojan S.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

Association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather in Inner Mongolia: A panel study

Science.gov (United States)

Jixia, Huang; Qibin, Zhang; Jing, Tan; Depeng, Yue; Quansheng, Ge

2018-04-01

Forestry ecological engineering projects in Western China include the Three-North Shelter Forest Project (TNSFP), the Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP), the Grain for Green Project (GGP) and the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project (BTSSP). Such projects play an important role in the control of dust weather in Western China. In this research, data on the frequency of sandstorms, sand-blowing and dust-floating weather, the area of four forestry ecological engineering projects, wind, rainfall and vegetation coverage from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the unit of prefecture-level cities in Inner Mongolia. The panel-data model was used to analyze the quantitative association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather. The results indicate that wind has a strong promotional effect on dust weather, while forestry ecological engineering and rainfall have a containment effect. In addition, the impacts of the four studied forestry ecological engineering projects on dust weather differ. For every increase of 1000 km2 in the Three-North Shelter Forest Project, the annual number of days of sandstorm weather decreased by 4 days. Similarly, for every increase of 1000 km2 in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project, the sand-blowing weather decreased by 4.4 days annually. In addition, NFPP and GGP have a more obvious inhibitory effect on the dust-floating weather.

(ajst) the influence of weather on the insurance

African Journals Online (AJOL)

excessive rainfall, had a direct impact on the extent of damage on buildings and property. It also became clear ... KEY WORDS Weather Derivatives, Heating degree days, cooling degree days, Fire industrial and ... agricultural, water sectors, and horticultural and tourism ... humidity, precipitation, snow and solar radiation.

Developing a Traffic Management Framework for Coastal Expressway Bridges under Adverse Weather Conditions: Case Study of Rain Day in Shenzhen, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenming Jiang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Adverse weather can reduce visibility and road surface friction, lower vehicle maneuverability, and increase crash frequency and injury severity. The impacts of adverse weather and its interactions with drivers and roadway on the operation and management of expressway or expressway bridges have drawn the researchers’ and managers’ attention to develop traffic management frameworks to mitigate the negative influence. Considering the peculiar geographical location and meteorological conditions, the Guangshen Coast Expressway-Shenzhen Segment (GSCE-SS was selected as a case in this study to illustrate the proposed traffic management framework on rain days. Conditions categorized by rainfall intensity and traffic flow were the main precondition to make the management decisions. CORSIM simulator was used to develop the alternate routes choice schemes, providing reference for other systems in the proposed traffic management framework. Maps of (a entrance ramp control (ERC strategies; (b mainline control strategies; (c alternate routes choice; (d information release schemes, under scenarios of different volume and rainstorm warning grades (BLUE to RED, were drawn to present a reference or demonstration for managers of long-span expressway bridges not only in China, but even in the world.

Open Day at SHMI.

Science.gov (United States)

Jarosova, M.

2010-09-01

During the World Meteorological Day there has been preparing "Open Day" at Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. This event has more than 10 years traditions. "Open Day" is one of a lot of possibilities to give more information about meteorology, climatology, hydrology too to public. This "Day" is executed in whole Slovakia. People can visit the laboratories, the forecasting room....and meteo and clima measuring points. The most popular is visiting forecasting room. Visitors are interested in e.g. climatologic change in Slovakia territory, preparing weather forecasting, dangerous phenomena.... Every year we have more than 500 visitors.

Acute Low Back Pain? Do Not Blame the Weather-A Case-Crossover Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Beilken, Keira; Hancock, Mark J; Maher, Chris G; Li, Qiang; Steffens, Daniel

2017-06-01

To investigate the influence of various weather parameters on the risk of developing a low back pain (LBP) episode. Case-crossover study. Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. 981 participants with a new episode of acute LBP. Weather parameters were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived comparing two exposure variables in the case window-(1) the average of the weather variable for the day prior to pain onset and (2) the change in the weather variable from 2 days prior to 1 day prior to pain onset-with exposures in two control windows (1 week and 1 month before the case window). The weather parameters of precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure were not associated with the onset of acute LBP. For one of the four analyses, higher temperature slightly increased the odds of pain onset. Common weather parameters that had been previously linked to musculoskeletal pain, such as precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure, do not increase the risk of onset for LBP. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

Effects of weather and heliophysical conditions on emergency ambulance calls for elevated arterial blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta M; Dobozinskas, Paulius; Sakalyte, Gintare; Lopatiene, Kristina; Mikelionis, Nerijus

2015-02-27

We hypothesized that weather and space weather conditions were associated with the exacerbation of essential hypertension. The study was conducted during 2009-2010 in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. We analyzed 13,475 cards from emergency ambulance calls (EACs), in which the conditions for the emergency calls were made coded I.10-I.15. The Kaunas Weather Station provided daily records of air temperature (T), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and barometric pressure (BP). We evaluated the associations between daily weather variables and daily number of EACs by applying a multivariate Poisson regression. Unfavorable heliophysical conditions (two days after the active-stormy geomagnetic field or the days with solar WS>600 km/s) increased the daily number of elevated arterial blood pressure (EABP) by 12% (RR=1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.21); and WS≥3.5 knots during days of Tweather conditions. These results may help in the understanding of the population's sensitivity to different weather conditions.

Characterization of Bioaerosol Bacterial Communities During Hazy and Foggy Weather in Qingdao, China

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Jianhua; Li, Mengzhe; Zhen, Yu; Wu, Lijing

2018-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of hazy and foggy weather on the bacterial communities in bioaerosols, for which samples were collected from the Qingdao coastal region on sunny, foggy, and hazy days in January and March 2013. Bacterial community compositions were determined using polymerase chain reaction denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCRDGGE). The bacterial community diversity was found to be high on foggy and hazy days, and the dominant species differed during hazy weather. The Shannon-Wiener index revealed that the bacterial community diversity of coarse particles was higher than that of fine particles in the bioaerosols. The bacterial community diversity of fine particles significantly correlated with relative humidity (RH; r 2 = 0.986). The cluster analysis results indicated that the bacterial communities on sunny days differed from those on hazy and foggy days. Compared with sunny days, the bacterial communities in the fine particles during hazy weather exhibited greater changes than those in the coarse particles. Most of the sequenced bacteria were found to be closely affiliated with uncultured bacteria. During hazy weather, members of the classes Bacilli and Gammaproteobacteria ( Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter) were dominant. The DGGE analysis revealed that Proteobacteria and Firmicutes were the predominant phyla, and their relative percentages to all the measured species changed significantly on hazy days, particularly in the fine particles. Haze and fog had a significant impact on the bacterial communities in bioaerosols, and the bacterial community diversity varied on different hazy days.

Results and Interpretations from a Survey on Agriculturally Related Weather Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, A.; Robb, J. G.

1986-01-01

A survey Of "top" wheat farmers in 12 counties in western Nebraska was undertaken to help guide future research and extension programs (in agricultural meteorology and economics) in the region. One hundred forty-two farmers (59 percent of those receiving questionnaires) responded to the survey. Of the respondents, 42 percent own or are considering purchasing a personal computer; the vast majority of farmers own a rain gage and some form of temperature- measuring device; the respondents were moderately familiar with an existing Automated Weather Data Network in Nebraska; commercial and NOAA weather radio and commercial television are the main sources of weather data and information. short-term weather forecasts (1 day and 3-5 days) are most important to overall farm planning; respondents considered market and cost-of-production information and more-accurate weather forecasts most important in better management of their farm operations; the risk factors that impacted farm net income were economic followed by weather factors and marketing decisions; and most farmers would be willing to forward contract before the crop was half developed if good projections of crop status and yield could be made. A major constraint to preharvest forward contracting from some of the farmers' perspective appears to be variability in yield due to hail.

Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyein Shim

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume IV. United States: WYEC data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.; Watson, C.R.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 23 cities using Weather Year for Energy Calculations (WYEC) source weather data. Considerable overlap is present in cities (21) covered by both the TRY and WYEC data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

Effects of Weather and Heliophysical Conditions on Emergency Ambulance Calls for Elevated Arterial Blood Pressure

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Jone Vencloviene

2015-02-01

Full Text Available We hypothesized that weather and space weather conditions were associated with the exacerbation of essential hypertension. The study was conducted during 2009–2010 in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. We analyzed 13,475 cards from emergency ambulance calls (EACs, in which the conditions for the emergency calls were made coded I.10–I.15. The Kaunas Weather Station provided daily records of air temperature (T, wind speed (WS, relative humidity, and barometric pressure (BP. We evaluated the associations between daily weather variables and daily number of EACs by applying a multivariate Poisson regression. Unfavorable heliophysical conditions (two days after the active-stormy geomagnetic field or the days with solar WS > 600 km/s increased the daily number of elevated arterial blood pressure (EABP by 12% (RR = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI 1.04–1.21; and WS ≥ 3.5 knots during days of T < 1.5 °C and T ≥ 12.5 °C by 8% (RR = 1.08; CI 1.04–1.12. An increase of T by 10 °C and an elevation of BP two days after by 10 hPa were associated with a decrease in RR by 3%. An additional effect of T was detected during days of T ≥ 17.5 °C only in females. Women and patients with grade III arterial hypertension at the time of the ambulance call were more sensitive to weather conditions. These results may help in the understanding of the population’s sensitivity to different weather conditions.

The Influence of Weather Conditions on Joint Pain in Older People with Osteoarthritis: Results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, Erik J; Schaap, Laura A; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Dennison, Elaine M; Maggi, Stefania; Pedersen, Nancy L; Castell, Maria Victoria; Denkinger, Michael D; Edwards, Mark H; Limongi, Federica; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Siviero, Paola; Queipo, Rocio; Peter, Richard; van der Pas, Suzan; Deeg, Dorly J H

2015-10-01

This study examined whether daily weather conditions, 3-day average weather conditions, and changes in weather conditions influence joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis (OA) in 6 European countries. Data from the population-based European Project on OSteoArthritis were used. The American College of Rheumatology classification criteria were used to diagnose OA in older people (65-85 yrs). After the baseline interview, at 6 months, and after the 12-18 months followup interview, joint pain was assessed using 2-week pain calendars. Daily values for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed were obtained from local weather stations. Multilevel regression modelling was used to examine the pain-weather associations, adjusted for several confounders. The study included 810 participants with OA in the knee, hand, and/or hip. After adjustment, there were significant associations of joint pain with daily average humidity (B = 0.004, p weather conditions. Changes in weather variables between 2 consecutive days were not significantly associated with reported joint pain. The associations between pain and daily average weather conditions suggest that a causal relationship exist between joint pain and weather variables, but the associations between day-to-day weather changes and pain do not confirm causation. Knowledge about the relationship between joint pain in OA and weather may help individuals with OA, physicians, and therapists to better understand and manage fluctuations in pain.

Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Pin Tung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fikru, Mahelet G.; Gautier, Luis

2015-01-01

Highlights: • There is evidence for significant intraday variation of energy use. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather variation falls via efficiency features. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the specific time of day/night. • High frequency data helps to accurately model the energy use-weather relationship. - Abstract: This paper studies the impact of weather variation on energy use by using 5-minutes interval weather–energy data obtained from two residential houses: house 1 is a conventional house with advanced efficiency features and house 2 is a net-zero solar house with relatively more advanced efficiency features. Our result suggests that energy consumption in house 2 is not as sensitive to changes in weather variables as the conventional house. On average, we find that a one unit increase in heating and cooling degree minutes increases energy use by about 9% and 5% respectively for house 1 and 5% and 4% respectively for house 2. In addition, our findings suggest that non-temperature variables such as solar radiation and humidity affect energy use where the sensitivity rates for house 2 are consistently lower than that of house 1. Furthermore our result suggests that the sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the season and specific time of the day/night

Weather uncertainty versus climate change uncertainty in a short television weather broadcast

Science.gov (United States)

Witte, J.; Ward, B.; Maibach, E.

2011-12-01

For TV meteorologists talking about uncertainty in a two-minute forecast can be a real challenge. It can quickly open the way to viewer confusion. TV meteorologists understand the uncertainties of short term weather models and have different methods to convey the degrees of confidence to the viewing public. Visual examples are seen in the 7-day forecasts and the hurricane track forecasts. But does the public really understand a 60 percent chance of rain or the hurricane cone? Communication of climate model uncertainty is even more daunting. The viewing public can quickly switch to denial of solid science. A short review of the latest national survey of TV meteorologists by George Mason University and lessons learned from a series of climate change workshops with TV broadcasters provide valuable insights into effectively using visualizations and invoking multimedia-learning theories in weather forecasts to improve public understanding of climate change.

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume II. Middle United States: TRY data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.; Watson, C.R.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 22 cities in the continental United States using Test Reference Year (TRY) source weather data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.

How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

Science.gov (United States)

Gawor, J.

2012-04-01

Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

Effect of weather on football attendances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cairns, J A

1984-01-01

On the premise that weather should have an effect on spectator attendance at sports events in outdoor settings (a topic which has received surprisingly little formalized study), the author examined the record of home attendances for three football teams in Scotland. In general, it was found that the greater the rainfall on the day of the match the lower the attendance. Dividing spectators into different groups, it was further found that an additional hour of sunshine was associated 162 more adults attending Aberdeen matches, while high temperatures appeared to increase juvenile attendance (by 57 for ever 1 deg. C. rise in temperature). Weather disruption of football games is attended by a number of costs, both direct and indirect. Quantifying the impact of weather can shed substantial light on the problem of scheduling for the season. For example, since certain periods are, on average, wetter than others, rescheduling to drier periods might encourage greater attendance.

Changes in the chemical composition of the light crude by short-term weathering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, X.; Ma, Q.M.

2006-01-01

In the event of an oil spill, it is important to unambiguously identify the oil and link it to the known source in order to determine environmental impact and legal liability. The fate and behaviour of spilled oil depends on several physical, chemical and biological factors such as evaporation, dissolution, microbial degradation and photooxidation. The chemical composition of the spilled oil changes with weathering. The changes can have a significant effect on the oil's toxicity and can add to the difficulty of identifying spilled oil. This paper presents the results of changes in chemical composition of light crude oil by weathering under natural environmental conditions. Oil samples were analyzed on a gas chromatograph equipped with a mass selective detector. Light crude oil was obtained from the oil cabin of a tanker which spilled oil near the Dalian Sea near China in April 2005. It was shown that the saturated hydrocarbons of light crude oil distribute between n-C 8 and n-C 23 . The most abundant n-alkanes are found in the n-C 10 to n-C 16 . The main chemical compositions of the light crude oil are the n-alkanes and the isoprenoids. The aromatic compounds are subordinate chemical compositions of the light crude oil. A simulated weathering experiment showed that less than n-C 12 of the n-alkanes, toluene, 1,3-dimethyl benzene is lost after 1 day of weathering. The n-C 13 , n-C 14 , naphthalene and 2-methyl-naphthalene are lost on the fifth day of weathering. N-C 15 alkane composition indicates some weatherproof capability. The ratios of n-C 17 /pristine and n-C 18 /phytane were unchanged and useful in identifying the source of the light crude oil during the first 8-day weathering period. By the twenty-first day of weathering, the chemical composition underwent extreme alteration, and the source of the pollution could not be determined by the ratios of pristine/phytane. 12 refs., 3 tabs., 7 figs

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M; Sim, Malcolm R; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M.; Sim, Malcolm R.; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

Bacterially-mediated weathering of crystalline and amorphous Cu-slags

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potysz, Anna; Grybos, Malgorzata; Kierczak, Jakub; Guibaud, Gilles; Lens, Piet N.L.; Hullebusch, Eric D. van

2016-01-01

Two types of Cu-slags (CS: crystalline massive slag and GS: granulated amorphous slag) exhibiting a different chemical and mineral phase composition were compared with respect to their susceptibility to bacterial weathering using Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n° CIP 105094). Abiotic conditions e.g. sterile growth medium and ultrapure water were used for comparison. The experiments were extended up to 112 days with a systematic liquid phase renewal every 14 days. The results revealed significant release of elements in the bacterially mediated weathering experiments. Concentrations of elements (Si, Fe, Cu, Zn and Pb) in the biotic solutions were increased at least by 20% up to 99% compared to abiotic ones. From 3 to 77% of the leached elements were associated to the fraction >0.22 μm. Scanning electron microscope observations demonstrated greater weathering of mineral phases in biotic experiments than in abiotic ones which is in accordance with the solution chemistry exhibiting higher concentrations of elements leached in biotic set-ups. In the case of CS, glass and sulfides weathering was yet observed in abiotic experiment, whereas partial dissolution of fayalite (Fe_2SiO_4) was solely affected by the presence of bacteria. GS having a higher bulk content of metallic elements was found to be more stable than sulfide-bearing CS, while its (GS) glass matrix was found to weather easier under biotic conditions. - Highlights: • Pseudomonas aeruginosa significantly enhance the release of elements from Cu-slags. • Bacteria and/or associated metabolites assist as biosorbent (e.g. Zn). • Amorphous slag is more susceptible to bio-weathering. • Metal carriers of crystalline slag are prone to dissolution. • Fe-bearing fayalite is altered solely due to the presence of bacteria.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 7. Southern Hemisphere Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications

Science.gov (United States)

1989-10-01

stationary states in the Southern limited use of persistence forecasting on a day-to-day Hemisphere. Mon, Wea. Rev., 114, 808-823. I I 729 I- 768 0I L! I I II...southwesterly Republic of South Africa Weather Bureau ( RSA ) surface flowing Agulhas Current. A ship observation at chart (not shown) had disclosed...20 ft. The potential for abnormally steep and high waves is significant in casesThe RSA daily weather bulletin (Fig. 3C- 18a) on the like this one

Weather and Tourism: Thermal Comfort and Zoological Park Visitor Attendance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David R. Perkins

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL. Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE. The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.

Weather Effects on the Patterns of People's Everyday Activities: A Study Using GPS Traces of Mobile Phone Users

Science.gov (United States)

Leong, Tuck W.; Sekimoto, Yoshihide; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2013-01-01

This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree) at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy). When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM–1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics. PMID:24367481

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

2016-11-01

Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

Use of the European Severe Weather Database to verify satllite-based storm detection or nowcasting

OpenAIRE

Dotzek, Nikolai; Forster, Caroline

2008-01-01

Severe thunderstorms constitute a major weather hazard in Europe, with an estimated total damage of € 5-8 billion each year. Yet a pan-European database of severe weather reports in a homogeneous data format has become available only recently: the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). We demonstrate the large potential of ESWD applications for storm detection and forecast or nowcasting/warning verification purposes. The study of five warm-season severe weather days in Europe from 2007 a...

Developing New Strategies for Coping with Weather: Work in Alaskan and Canadian Coastal Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, D. E.

2014-12-01

A changing climate is manifested at ground level through the day to day weather. For all Northern residents - community, industrial, operational and response - the need to think about the weather is ever present. Northern residents, and in particular, indigenous community residents, fully understand implications of the weather, however, a comment that has been heard more often is that old ways of knowing are not as reliable as they once were. Weather patterns seem less consistent and subject to more rapid fluctuations. Compromised traditional ways of knowing puts those who need to travel or hunt at greater risk. One response to adapt to this emerging reality is to make greater use of western sources of information, such as weather data and charts provided by NOAA's National Weather Service or Environment Canada. The federal weather agencies have very large and complex forecasting regions to cover, and so one problem is that it can be difficult to provide perfectly tailored forecasts, that cover all possible problems, right down to the very local scale in the communities. Only those affected have a complete feel for their own concerns. Thus, key to a strategy to improve the utility of available weather information is a linking of local-scale manifestations of problematic weather to the larger-scale weather patterns. This is done in two ways: by direct consultation with Northern residents, and by installation of equipment to measure parameters of interest to residents, which are not already being measured. This talk will overview projects in coastal Alaska and Canada targeting this objective. The challenge of designing and conducting interviews, and then of harvesting relevant information, will be visited using examples from the three major contexts: coastal community, industrial, and operational. Examples of how local comments can be married to weather products will be presented.

Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiliang Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China.

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

Summary of the Day Observations - Misawa Japan

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Summary of the Day Observations - Misawa Japan is a collection of data summarizing daily weather observations taken at Misawa Naval Air Station, near the north end...

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

Science.gov (United States)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

Effect of Bacillus subtilis on Granite Weathering: A Laboratory Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Song, W.; Ogawa, N.; Oguchi, C. T.; Hatta, T.; Matsukura, Y.

2006-12-01

We performed a comparative experiment to investigate how the ubiquitous soil bacterium Bacillus subtilis weathers granite and which granite-forming minerals weather more rapidly via biological processes. Batch type experiments (granite specimen in a 500 ml solution including NaCl, glucose, yeast extract and bacteria Bacillus subtilis at 27°E C) were carried out for 30 days. Granite surfaces were observed by SEM before and after the experiment. Bacillus subtilis had a strong influence on granite weathering by forming pits. There were 2.4 times as many pits and micropores were 2.3 times wider in granite exposed to Bacillus subtilis when compared with bacteria-free samples. Bacillus subtilis appear to preferentially select an optimum place to adhere to the mineral and dissolve essential elements from the mineral to live. Plagioclase was more vulnerable to bacterial weathering than biotite among the granite composing minerals.

Weathering and landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

Activities of NICT space weather project

Science.gov (United States)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Evaluating the quality and usability of crowdsourced weather data

Science.gov (United States)

Koole, Martijn; Siegmund, Peter

2016-04-01

In April 2015 the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) launched the Weather Observations Website (WOW-NL, https://wow.knmi.nl/) in the Netherlands in cooperation with the UK Met Office, who launched a similar WOW-UK website in 2011. WOW-NL functions as a platform to collect weather data that is measured by amateurs or organizations who own an automatic weather station. Such data can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of existing observation networks. This can be meaningful for better understanding of e.g. urban climate (urban heat islands) and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events. In November 2015 the number of Dutch participants of WOW-NL was approximately 250. The following meteorological parameters are uploaded to the website every 10 minutes: air temperature, air pressure, rainfall rate, humidity, wind speed and wind direction. To get an idea about the location and environment at which the weather stations are placed, participants are asked to rate their station based on exposure, type of devices used and the level of urbanization. They can also specify the elevation and add a short description of the equipment that is used. This study examines the quality of the crowd-sourced weather data by using interpolated weather data that is measured at official weather stations that are operated by KNMI. Measurements at amateur stations are compared with the interpolated measurements and differences are explained using the metadata that the participants specified. A number of days is selected where interesting meteorological situations occurred, such as extremely hot weather, cold fronts, rain fronts or heavy winds. Based on this, recommendations are presented about possible applications of crowd-sourced weather data with respect to the quality level.

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

Science.gov (United States)

Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Monthly Weather Review

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

WEATHER DERIVATIVES: THE MOST COMMON PRICING AND VALUATION METHODS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botos Horia Mircea

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In recent years , weather derivatives have become a common tool in risk management for many sectors. This has its roots in that there is no unique way to determine de value and price solutions that would be generally approved by market-participants, like in the case of the Black-Scholes formula for options on non-dividend-paying stocks is the source for a constant debate between academics and practitioners. One look for fair and truly correct prices, while the others search every-day applicable solutions. To be honest... this is somehow like alchemy. This paper has as purpose the examination of statistical characteristics of weather data, data clearing and filling techniques. The study will be referring to temperatures because that is the best analyzed phenomenon, being the most common. This was also heavily influenced by energy companies and energetic interests, because the degree days were of interest ever before weather derivatives were put for sale. Main ideas are explaining what ways of pricing and valuation are, put into perspective for this financial instrument, taking into consideration that the Black-Scholes Model is not suitable. Also here, we will present the pros and cons that we found for each method. The methods are: the Burn analysis, the index value simulation method (IVSM, the daily simulation method (DSM.On the hole, this paper wants to shed light the weather derivatives pricing methods a mix of insurance pricing and standard financial models. At the end we will prospect the discounting problem, by means of the Consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM.

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

WIRE: Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies

Science.gov (United States)

Heimo, A.; Cattin, R.; Calpini, B.

2010-09-01

Renewable energies such as wind and solar energy will play an important, even decisive role in order to mitigate and adapt to the projected dramatic consequences to our society and environment due to climate change. Due to shrinking fossil resources, the transition to more and more renewable energy shares is unavoidable. But, as wind and solar energy are strongly dependent on highly variable weather processes, increased penetration rates will also lead to strong fluctuations in the electricity grid which need to be balanced. Proper and specific forecasting of ‘energy weather' is a key component for this. Therefore, it is today appropriate to scientifically address the requirements to provide the best possible specific weather information for forecasting the energy production of wind and solar power plants within the next minutes up to several days. Towards such aims, Weather Intelligence will first include developing dedicated post-processing algorithms coupled with weather prediction models and with past and/or online measurement data especially remote sensing observations. Second, it will contribute to investigate the difficult relationship between the highly intermittent weather dependent power production and concurrent capacities such as transport and distribution of this energy to the end users. Selecting, resp. developing surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques well adapted to supply relevant information to the specific post-processing algorithms for solar and wind energy production short-term forecasts is a major task with big potential. It will lead to improved energy forecasts and help to increase the efficiency of the renewable energy productions while contributing to improve the management and presumably the design of the energy grids. The second goal will raise new challenges as this will require first from the energy producers and distributors definitions of the requested input data and new technologies dedicated to the management of

Space weather and space anomalies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Dorman

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

Deformation of high performance concrete plate under humid tropical weather

Science.gov (United States)

Niken, C.; Elly, T.; Supartono, FX; Laksmi, I.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the relationship between surrounding relative humidity and temperature on deformation behavior of one sample concrete plate with compressive strength of 60MPa. This research was done in Indonesia that is in humid tropical weather. A specimens measuring 3000 mm × 1600 mm × 150 mm were used. The behavior was obtained by using four embedded vibrating wire strain gauges (VWESG). As a result there is a very strong relationship between humidity and deformation at the age range of 7 until 21 days. The largest deformation occurs in the corner and the fluctuation of deformation in side position is larger than in the corner and in the middle. The peaks of surrounding relative humidity were fully followed by the deepest valley of deformation on time in the corner, while in another position the range delay time was 8 - 11 hours. There is a strong relationship between surrounding temperature and deformation at the range of 7 until 14 days. The influenced of surrounding relative humidity to concrete behavior is faster and longer than surrounding temperature. The influence of surrounding temperature in humid tropical weather was shorter than in non-humid tropical weather.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Future development of IR thermovision weather satellite equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Listratov, A. V.

1974-01-01

The self radiation of the surface being viewed is used for image synthesis in IR thermovision equipment. The installation of such equipment aboard weather satellites makes it possible to obtain cloud cover pictures of the earth's surface in a complete orbit, regardless of the illumination conditions, and also provides quantitative information on the underlying surface temperature and cloud top height. Such equipment is used successfully aboard the Soviet satellites of the Meteor system, and experimentally on the American satellites of the Nimbus series. With regard to surface resolution, the present-day IR weather satellite equipment is inferior to the television equipment. This is due primarily to the comparatively low detectivity of the IR detectors used. While IR equipment has several fundamental advantages in comparison with the conventional television equipment, the problem arises of determining the possibility for future development of weather satellite IR thermovision equipment. Criteria are examined for evaluating the quality of IR.

Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Royé, D; Taboada, J J; Martí, A; Lorenzo, M N

2016-04-01

The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.

2016-04-01

The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

Complex weathering in drylands: Implications of ‘stress’ history for rock debris breakdown and sediment release

Science.gov (United States)

Warke, P. A.

2007-03-01

Weathering studies have often sought to explain features in terms of a prevailing set of environmental conditions. However, it is clear that in most present-day hot desert regions, the surface rock debris has been exposed to a range of weathering environments and processes. These different weathering conditions can arise in two ways, either from the effects of long-term climate change acting on debris that remains relatively static within the landscape or through the spatial relocation of debris from high to low altitude. Consequently, each fragment of rock may contain a unique weathering-related legacy of damage and alteration — a legacy that may greatly influence its response to present-day weathering activity. Experiments are described in which blocks of limestone, sandstone, granite and basalt are given 'stress histories' by subjecting them to varying numbers of heating and freezing cycles as a form of pre-treatment. These imposed stress histories act as proxies for a weathering history. Some blocks were used in a laboratory salt weathering simulation study while others underwent a 2 year field exposure trial at high, mid and low altitude sites in Death Valley, California. Weight loss and ultrasonic pulse velocity measurements suggest that blocks with stress histories deteriorate more rapidly than unstressed samples of the same rock type exposed to the same environmental conditions. Laboratory data also indicate that the result of imposing a known 'weathering history' on samples by pre-stressing them is an increase in the amount of fine sediment released during salt weathering over a given period of time in comparison to unstressed samples.

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

Science.gov (United States)

Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

2018-02-01

There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

Considering space weather forces interaction on human health: the equilibrium paradigm in clinical cosmobiology - is it equal?

Science.gov (United States)

Stoupel, Eliyahu

2015-03-01

We are constantly affected by changes in space weather. The principal "players" are solar activity (SA), geomagnetic activity (GMA) and antagonistic to them, cosmic ray activity (CRA) and high energy proton flux. CRA is measured by neutron activity on the earth's surface in imp/min. SA and GMA are linked and serve as a shield for the earth from CRA. For a long time SA and GMA were the main areas of studies. The aim of this study was to compare some effects of the mentioned forces and discuss the temporal distribution of both groups of space weather, in relation to their effects on humans. The time distribution of GMA storms (daily) was compared with quiet (low) GMA, with higher CRA (neutron activity). Space weather data were obtained from the USA, Russia and Finland. A total of 4383 days were analyzed in the years 2000-2012. A total of 71 days (1.62%) of geomagnetic storms (GS) and 2753 days (63.8%) of quiet (I0) GMA were registered. A second study was provided including the years 1983-2007 (9131 days); here 3800 days (41.62%) were quiet GMA days and 400 storm days (4.38%). According to publications in the medical literature, many phenomena are connected with the extremes of space weather. Despite a great number of publications and the significant role of GS, it is a relatively rare event and most medical emergencies and deaths occur on days of low GMA, accompanied by higher CRA (neutron activity). High neutron activity deserves more attention when analyzing space effects on human health and their mechanism of action.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Influence of weather and atmospheric pollution on physical activity in patients with COPD.

Science.gov (United States)

Alahmari, Ayedh D; Mackay, Alex J; Patel, Anant R C; Kowlessar, Beverly S; Singh, Richa; Brill, Simon E; Allinson, James P; Wedzicha, Jadwiga A; Donaldson, Gavin C

2015-06-13

Information concerning how climate and atmospheric pollutants affects physical activity in COPD patients is lacking and might be valuable in determining when physical activity should be encouraged. Seventy-three stable COPD patients recorded on daily diary cards worsening of respiratory symptoms, peak expiratory flow rate, hours spent outside the home and the number of steps taken per day. Pedometry data was recorded on 16,478 days, an average of 267 days per patient (range 29-658). Daily data for atmospheric PM10 and ozone (O3) were obtained for Bloomsbury Square, Central London from the Air Quality Information Archive databases. Daily weather data were obtained for London Heathrow from the British Atmospheric Data Archive. Colder weather below 22.5 °C, reduced daily step count by 43.3 steps day per °C (95% CI 2.14 to 84.4; p = 0.039) and activity was lower on rainy than dry days (p = 0.002) and on overcast compared to sunny days (p atmospheric pollution at high levels.

Weather and Climate Indicators for Coffee Rust Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, S.; Imbach, P. A.; Avelino, J.; Anzueto, F.; del Carmen Calderón, G.

2014-12-01

Coffee rust is a disease that has significant impacts on the livelihoods of those who are dependent on the Central American coffee sector. Our investigation has focussed on the weather and climate indicators that favoured the high incidence of coffee rust disease in Central America in 2012 by assessing daily temperature and precipitation data available from 81 weather stations in the INSIVUMEH and ANACAFE networks located in Guatemala. The temperature data were interpolated to determine the corresponding daily data at 1250 farms located across Guatemala, between 400 and 1800 m elevation. Additionally, CHIRPS five day (pentad) data has been used to assess the anomalies between the 2012 and the climatological average precipitation data at farm locations. The weather conditions in 2012 displayed considerable variations from the climatological data. In general the minimum daily temperatures were higher than the corresponding climatology while the maximum temperatures were lower. As a result, the daily diurnal temperature range was generally lower than the corresponding climatological range, leading to an increased number of days where the temperatures fell within the optimal range for either influencing the susceptibility of the coffee plants to coffee rust development during the dry season, or for the development of lesions on the coffee leaves during the wet season. The coffee rust latency period was probably shortened as a result, and farms at high altitudes were impacted due to these increases in minimum temperature. Factors taken into consideration in developing indicators for coffee rust development include: the diurnal temperature range, altitude, the environmental lapse rate and the phenology. We will present the results of our study and discuss the potential for each of the derived weather and climatological indicators to be used within risk assessments and to eventually be considered for use within an early warning system for coffee rust disease.

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Cold-Weather Sports

Science.gov (United States)

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2014-09-15

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

Historic halo displays as weather indicator: Criteria and examples

Science.gov (United States)

Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.; Neuhäuser, Ralph

2016-04-01

There are numerous celestial signs reported in historic records, many of them refer to atmospheric ("sub-lunar") phenomena, such as ice halos and aurorae. In an interdisciplinary collaboration between astrophysics and cultural astronomy, we noticed that celestial observations including meteorological phenomena are often misinterpreted, mostly due to missing genuine criteria: especially ice crystal halos were recorded frequently in past centuries for religious reasons, but are mistaken nowadays often for other phenomena like aurorae. Ice halo displays yield clear information on humidity and temperature in certain atmospheric layers, and thereby indicate certain weather patterns. Ancient so-called rain makers used halo observations for weather forecast; e.g., a connection between certain halo displays and rain a few day later is statistically significant. Ice halos exist around sun and moon and are reported for both (they can stay for several days): many near, middle, and far eastern records from day- and night-time include such observations with high frequency. (Partly based on publications on halos by D.L. Neuhäuser & R. Neuhäuser, available at http://www.astro.uni-jena.de/index.php/terra-astronomy.html)

Cockpit weather information needs

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

Revisiting the extended spring indices using gridded weather data and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Mehdipoor, Hamed; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2016-04-01

The extended spring indices or SI-x [1] have been successfully used to predict the timing of spring onset at continental scales. The SI-x models were created by combining lilac and honeysuckle volunteered phenological observations, temperature data (from weather stations) and latitudinal information. More precisely, these models use a linear regression to predict the day of year of first leaf and first bloom for these two indicator species. In this contribution we revisit both the data and the method used to calibrate the SI-x models to check whether the addition of new input data or the use of non-linear regression methods could lead to improments in the model outputs. In particular, we use a recently published dataset [2] of volunteered observations on cloned and common lilac over longer period of time (1980-2014) and we replace the weather station data by 54 features derived from Daymet [3], which provides 1 by 1 km gridded estimates of daily weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, water vapor pressure, solar radiation, day length, snow water equivalent) for North America. These features consist of both daily weather values and their long- and short-term accumulations and elevation. we also replace the original linear regression by a non-linear method. Specifically, we use random forests to both identify the most important features and to predict the day of year of the first leaf of cloned and common lilacs. Preliminary results confirm the importance of the SI-x features (maximum and minimum temperatures and day length). However, our results show that snow water equivalent and water vapor pressure are also necessary to properly model leaf onset. Regarding the predictions, our results indicate that Random Forests yield comparable results to those produced by the SI-x models (in terms of root mean square error -RMSE). For cloned and common lilac, the models predict the day of year of leafing with 16 and 15 days of accuracy respectively

The Influence of Weather Conditions on Joint Pain in Older People with Osteoarthritis: Results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmermans, E.J.; Schaap, L.A.; Herbolsheimer, F.; Dennison, E.M.; Maggi, S.; Pedersen, N.L.; Castell, M.V; Denkinger, M.D.; Edwards, M.H.; Limongi, F.; Sanchez-Martinez, M.; Siviero, P.; Queipo, R.; Peter, R.; van der Pas, S.; Deeg, D.J.H.

2015-01-01

Objective. This study examined whether daily weather conditions, 3-day average weather conditions, and changes in weather conditions influence joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis (OA) in 6 European countries. Methods. Data from the population-based European Project on OSteoArthritis were

Cold weather oil spill response training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solsberg, L.B.; Owens, E.H.

2001-01-01

In April 2000, a three-day oil spill response training program was conducted on Alaska's North Slope. The unique hands-on program was specifically developed for Chevron Corporation's world-wide response team. It featured a combination of classroom and outdoor sessions that helped participants to learn and apply emergency measures in a series of field exercises performed in very cold weather conditions. Temperatures remained below minus 20 degrees C and sometimes reached minus 40 degrees C throughout the training. The classroom instructions introduced participants to the Emergency Prevention Preparedness and Response (EPPR) Working Group's Field Guide for Spill Response in Arctic Waters. This guide provides response strategies specific to the Arctic, including open water, ice and snow conditions. The sessions also reviewed the Alaska Clean Seas Tactics Manual which addresses spill containment and recovery, storage, tracking, burning and disposal. The issues that were emphasized throughout the training program were cold weather safety and survival. During the training sessions, participants were required to set up weather ports and drive snowmobiles and all terrain vehicles. Their mission was to detect oil with infra-red and hand-held devices. They were required to contain the oil by piling snow into snow banks, and by augering, trenching and slotting ice. Oil was removed by trimming operations on solid ice, snow melting, snow blowing, skimming and pumping. In-situ burning was also performed. Other sessions were also conducted develop skills in site characterization and treating oiled shorelines. The successfully conducted field sessions spanned all phases of a cleanup operation in cold weather. 5 refs., 7 figs

Does weather affect daily pain intensity levels in patients with acute low back pain? A prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Duong, Vicky; Maher, Chris G; Steffens, Daniel; Li, Qiang; Hancock, Mark J

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of various weather parameters on pain intensity levels in patients with acute low back pain (LBP). We performed a secondary analysis using data from the PACE trial that evaluated paracetamol (acetaminophen) in the treatment of acute LBP. Data on 1604 patients with LBP were included in the analysis. Weather parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Pain intensity was assessed daily on a 0-10 numerical pain rating scale over a 2-week period. A generalised estimating equation analysis was used to examine the relationship between daily pain intensity levels and weather in three different time epochs (current day, previous day, and change between previous and current days). A second model was adjusted for important back pain prognostic factors. The analysis did not show any association between weather and pain intensity levels in patients with acute LBP in each of the time epochs. There was no change in strength of association after the model was adjusted for prognostic factors. Contrary to common belief, the results demonstrated that the weather parameters of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure did not influence the intensity of pain reported by patients during an episode of acute LBP.

Study on The Extended Range Weather Forecast of Low Frequency Signal Based on Period Analysis Method

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.

2016-12-01

Although many studies have explored the MJO and its application for weather forecasting, low-frequency oscillation has been insufficiently studied for the extend range weather forecasting over middle and high latitudes. In China, low-frequency synoptic map is a useful tool for meteorological operation department to forecast extend range weather. It is therefore necessary to develop objective methods to serve the need for finding low-frequency signal, interpretation and application of this signal in the extend range weather forecasting. In this paper, method of Butterworth band pass filter was applied to get low-frequency height field at 500hPa from 1980 to 2014 by using NCEP/NCAR daily grid data. Then period analysis and optimal subset regression methods were used to process the low frequency data of 150 days before the first forecast day and extend the low frequency signal of 500hPa low-frequency high field to future 30 days in the global from June to August during 2011-2014. Finally, the results were test. The main results are as follows: (1) In general, the fitting effect of low frequency signals of 500hPa low-frequency height field by period analysis in the northern hemisphere was better than that in the southern hemisphere, and was better in the low latitudes than that in the high latitudes. The fitting accuracy gradually reduced with the increase of forecast time length, which tended to be stable during the late forecasting period. (2) The fitting effects over the 6 key regions in China showed that except filtering result over Xinjiang area in the first 10 days and 30 days, filtering results over the other 5 key regions throughout the whole period have passed reliability test with level more than 95%. (3) The center and scope of low and high low frequency systems can be fitted well by using the methods mentioned above, which is consist with the corresponding use of the low-frequency synoptic map for the prediction of the extended period. Application of the

Mobility of nutrients and trace metals during weathering in the late Archean

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Jihua; Sverjensky, Dimitri A.; Hazen, Robert M.

2017-08-01

The evolution of the geosphere and biosphere depends on the availability of bio-essential nutrients and trace metals. Consequently, the chemical and isotopic variability of trace elements in the sedimentary record have been widely used to infer the existence of early life and fluctuations in the near-surface environment on the early Earth, particularly fluctuations in the redox state of the atmosphere. In this study, we applied late Archean weathering models (Hao et al., 2017), developed to estimate the behavior of major elements and the composition of late Archean world average river water, to explore the behavior of nutrient and trace metals and their potential for riverine transport. We focused on P, Mn, Cr, and Cu during the weathering of olivine basalt. In our standard late Archean weathering model (pCO2,g = 10-1.5 bars, pH2,g = 10-5.0 bars), crustal apatite was totally dissolved by the acidic rainwater during weathering. Our model quantitatively links the pCO2,g of the atmosphere to phosphate levels transported by rivers. The development of late Archean river water (pH = 6.4) resulted in riverine phosphate of at least 1.7 μmolar, much higher than at the present-day. At the end of the early Proterozoic snowball Earth event when pCO2,g could be 0.01-0.10 bars, river water may have transported up to 70 μmolar phosphate, depending on the availability of apatite, thereby stimulating high levels of oxygenic photosynthesis in the marine environment. Crustal levels of Mn in olivine dissolved completely during weathering, except at large extents of weathering where Mn was stored as a component of a secondary carbonate mineral. The corresponding Mn content of river water, about 1.2 μmolar, is higher than in modern river water. Whiffs of 10-5 mole O2 gas or HNO3 kg-1 H2O resulted in the formation of pyrolusite (MnO2) and abundant hematite and simultaneous dramatic decreases in the concentration of Mn(II) in the river water. Chromite dissolution resulted in negligible

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Erhard M.

1987-06-01

Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeil, Diana Michalek; Balakrishnan, Hamsa

2012-01-01

Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

On the Nature of People's Reaction to Space Weather and Meteorological Weather Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.

2009-12-01

Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.

Weather and headache onset: a large-scale study of headache medicine purchases

Science.gov (United States)

Ozeki, Kayoko; Noda, Tatsuya; Nakamura, Mieko; Ojima, Toshiyuki

2015-04-01

It is widely recognized that weather changes can trigger headache onset. Most people who develop headaches choose to self-medicate rather than visit a hospital or clinic. We investigated the association between weather and headache onset using large-sample sales of the headache medicine, loxoprofen. We collected daily sales figures of loxoprofen and over-the-counter drugs over a 1-year period from a drugstore chain in western Shizuoka prefecture, Japan. To adjust for changes in daily sales of loxoprofen due to social environmental factors, we calculated a proportion of loxoprofen daily sales to over-the-counter drug daily sales. At the same time, we obtained weather data for the study region from the website of the Japan Meteorological Agency. We performed linear regression analysis to ascertain the association between weather conditions and the loxoprofen daily sales proportion. We also conducted a separate questionnaire survey at the same drugstores to determine the reason why people purchased loxoprofen. Over the study period, we surveyed the sale of hundreds of thousands of loxoprofen tablets. Most people purchased loxoprofen because they had a headache. We found that the sales proportion of loxoprofen increased when average barometric pressure decreased, and that precipitation, average humidity, and minimum humidity increased on loxoprofen purchase days compared to the previous day of purchases. This study, performed using a large dataset that was easy-to-collect and representative of the general population, revealed that sales of loxoprofen, which can represent the onset and aggravation of headache, significantly increased with worsening weather conditions.

Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Forecasting Space Weather-Induced GPS Performance Degradation Using Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Filjar, R.; Filic, M.; Milinkovic, F.

2017-12-01

Space weather and ionospheric dynamics have a profound effect on positioning performance of the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS). However, the quantification of that effect is still the subject of scientific activities around the world. In the latest contribution to the understanding of the space weather and ionospheric effects on satellite-based positioning performance, we conducted a study of several candidates for forecasting method for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. First, a 5-days set of experimentally collected data was established, encompassing the space weather and ionospheric activity indices (including: the readings of the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitors, components of geomagnetic field strength, global Kp index, Dst index, GPS-derived Total Electron Content (TEC) samples, standard deviation of TEC samples, and sunspot number) and observations of GPS positioning error components (northing, easting, and height positioning error) derived from the Adriatic Sea IGS reference stations' RINEX raw pseudorange files in quiet space weather periods. This data set was split into the training and test sub-sets. Then, a selected set of supervised machine learning methods based on Random Forest was applied to the experimentally collected data set in order to establish the appropriate regional (the Adriatic Sea) forecasting models for space weather-induced GPS positioning performance deterioration. The forecasting models were developed in the R/rattle statistical programming environment. The forecasting quality of the regional forecasting models developed was assessed, and the conclusions drawn on the advantages and shortcomings of the regional forecasting models for space weather-caused GNSS positioning performance deterioration.

[Relationship between weather factors and heat stroke in Ningbo city].

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, S H; Wang, A H; Bian, G L; He, T F; Yi, B; Lu, B B; Li, X H; Xu, G Z

2016-08-10

To explore the main effects of weather factors on heat stroke. Data from case report on heat stroke was collected in Ningbo city during 2011 to 2014. Temperature threshold, lag effects and interaction of weather factors on heat stroke had been analyzed, using the piecewise regression model, distributed lag non-linear model, response surface model and other methods. RESULTS showed that temperature and humidity were more correlated with heat stroke than other weather-related factors. Through different models, daily average temperature always presented a better role in predicting the heat stroke, rather than maximum or minimum temperature. Positive association between daily average temperature and heat stroke was obvious, especially at lag 0-1 days, with its threshold as 29.1 (95% CI: 28.7-29.5) ℃ . The cumulative RR of heat stroke at 90(th) percentile of daily average temperature versus 10(th) percentile was 14.05 (95% CI: 7.23-27.31) in lag 0-1 days. The effects of daily relative humidity on heat stroke appeared nonlinear, with low humidity showing a negative effect on heat stroke and could lag for 1-4 days. However, the effect of high humidity was not significant, with the cumulative RR of low humidity and high humidity as 2.35 (95%CI: 1.27-4.33) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.40-1.85) in lag of 0-4 days, respectively. We also noticed that there was an interactive effect of both temperature and humidity on heat stroke. Under high temperature and low humidity, the risk of heat stroke showed the highest. Temperature and humidity showed obvious relationship with heat stroke in Ningbo city, with the threshold temperature as 29.1 ℃. Under high temperature and low humidity, the risk of heat stroke became the highest.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Revisiting the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling on chemical weathering indices

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yulong; Yang, Shouye; Su, Ni; Li, Chao; Yin, Ping; Wang, Zhongbo

2018-04-01

Although the proxies based on elemental geochemistry of siliciclastic sediments have been well developed to indicate the intensity of chemical weathering in various catchments, their geological indications and limitations, and especially how the differentiation of minerals and sediment grain size influences the applications of these proxies needs more clarification. This paper investigates the interactive effects of weathering, hydraulic sorting and sedimentary recycling on river sediment chemistry, and further validates the application of various weathering indices by measuring mineralogical and geochemical compositions of bank sediments and suspended particulate matters (SPMs) from five rivers in East China bearing various sizes, geologic settings and climatic regimes. For a specific river, the silicate weathering intensity registered in the fine SPMs is systematically stronger than that in the coarse-grained bank sediments. Most of the weathering indices not only reflect the integrated weathering history of various catchments but also depend on hydraulic sorting effect during sediment transport and depositional processes. The correlation between CIA (chemical index of alteration) and WIP (weathering index of Parker) offers an approach to predict the weathering trends of the fine SPMs, coarse bank sediments and recycled sediments under the influence of quartz dilution. To minimize the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling, we suggest that the fine sediments (e.g. SPMs and <2 μm fraction of bank sediments) in rivers can better reflect the average of present-day weathering crust in catchments and the weathered terrigenous materials into marginal seas and oceans.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2018-01-01

Precipitation constitutes a major contribution to the flow in urban storm- and wastewater systems. Forecasts of the anticipated runoff flows, created from radar extrapolation and/or numerical weather predictions, can potentially be used to optimize operation in both wet and dry weather periods...... to transform the forecasted rainfall into forecasted flow series and evaluate three different approaches to establishing the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram of the forecast, which is a plot of POD against POFD for each fraction of concordant ensemble members and can be used to select...... itself from earlier research in being the first application to urban hydrology, with fast runoff and small catchments that are highly sensitive to local extremes. Furthermore, no earlier reference has been found on the highly efficient third approach using only neighbouring cells with the highest threat...

Relationship between onset of spontaneous pneumothorax and weather conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishina, Taijiro; Watanabe, Atsushi; Miyajima, Masahiro; Nakazawa, Junji

2017-09-01

Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) results from the rupture of blebs or bullae. It has been suggested that changes in weather conditions may trigger the onset of SP. Our aim was to examine the association between the onset of primary SP with weather changes in the general population in Sapporo, Japan. From January 2008 through September 2013, 345 consecutive cases with a diagnosis of primary SP were reviewed. All cases of primary SP developed in the area within 40 km from the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory. Climatic measurements were obtained from the Observatory, which included 1-h readings of weather conditions. Logistic regression model was used to obtain predicted risks for the onset of SP with respect to weather conditions. SP occurred significantly when the atmospheric pressure decreased by - 18 hPa or less during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.379, P = 0.026), when the pressure increased by 15 hPa or more during 72 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.095, P = 0.007) and when maximum fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over 22 hPa was observed during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.519, P = 0.001). Other weather conditions, including the presence of thunderstorms, were not significantly correlated with the onset of pneumothorax. Changes in atmospheric pressure influence the onset of SP. Future studies on the relationship between the onset of SP and weather conditions on days other than before the onset and with large number of patients may enable us to predict the onset of SP in various regions and weather conditions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

2017-04-01

The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

Weather and rheumatoid arthritis: the role of the microclimate near the skin

OpenAIRE

Patberg, Wiebe Reinier

2005-01-01

Although there is a widespread opinion that weather affects arthritis, scientific proof is lacking. The number of studies on this subject is small, which might be explained by the difficulty of monitoring disease activity in RA. Subjective variables like pain can be judged every day, but the daily determination of objective variables in the laboratory would be too expensive, and too much a burden to the patient. About half of the studies did not find any effect of the weather, and the conclus...

Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.

2017-12-01

There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.

Weather types and the regime of wildfires in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.; Dacamara, C. C.

2009-04-01

An objective classification scheme, as developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), was applied to classify the daily atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal between 1980 and 2007 into a set of 10 basic weather types (WTs). The classification scheme relies on a set of atmospheric circulation indices, namely southerly flow (SF), westerly flow (WF), total flow (F), southerly shear vorticity (ZS), westerly shear vorticity (ZW) and total vorticity (Z). The weather-typing approach, together with surfacemeteorological variables (e.g. intensity and direction of geostrophic wind, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) were then associated to wildfire events as recorded in the official Portuguese fire database consisting of information on each fire occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal within the same period (>450.000 events). The objective of this study is to explore the dependence of wildfire activity on weather and climate and then evaluate the potential of WTs to discriminate among recorded wildfires on what respects to their occurrence and development. Results show that days characterised by surface flow with an eastern component (i.e. NE, E and SE) account for a high percentage of daily burnt area, as opposed to surface westerly flow (NW, W and SW), which represents about a quarter of the total number of days but only accounts for a very low percentage of active fires and of burnt area. Meteorological variables such as minimum and maximum temperatures, that are closely associated to surface wind intensity and direction, also present a good ability to discriminate between the different types of fire events.. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Casebook on application for weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-11-01

This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1997-06-01

The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

Weather Instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

Effects of weather conditions on emergency ambulance calls for acute coronary syndromes

Science.gov (United States)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta; Dobozinskas, Paulius; Siurkaite, Viktorija

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between weather conditions and daily emergency ambulance calls for acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The study included data on 3631 patients who called the ambulance for chest pain and were admitted to the department of cardiology as patients with ACS. We investigated the effect of daily air temperature ( T), barometric pressure (BP), relative humidity, and wind speed (WS) to detect the risk areas for low and high daily volume (DV) of emergency calls. We used the classification and regression tree method as well as cluster analysis. The clusters were created by applying the k-means cluster algorithm using the standardized daily weather variables. The analysis was performed separately during cold (October-April) and warm (May-September) seasons. During the cold period, the greatest DV was observed on days of low T during the 3-day sequence, on cold and windy days, and on days of low BP and high WS during the 3-day sequence; low DV was associated with high BP and decreased WS on the previous day. During June-September, a lower DV was associated with low BP, windless days, and high BP and low WS during the 3-day sequence. During the warm period, the greatest DV was associated with increased BP and changing WS during the 3-day sequence. These results suggest that daily T, BP, and WS on the day of the ambulance call and on the two previous days may be prognostic variables for the risk of ACS.

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

The women day storm

OpenAIRE

Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

2012-01-01

On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

2017-12-01

Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Science.gov (United States)

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Post-harvest quality model of pineapple guava fruit according to storage and weather conditions of cultivation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso Parra-Coronado

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The post-harvest quality of pineapple guava fruit is determined by the storage and prevailing weather conditions during growth and development. This study proposes a model for post-harvest fruit quality according to the storage and weather conditions in the pineapple guava growing region. Physiologically ripe fruit were collected during two harvests from two locations within the Department of Cundinamarca (Colombia: Tenjo and San Francisco de Sales. The fruits were stored at 18 ± 1 °C (76 ± 5% relative humidity (RH, over 11 days and at 5 ± 1 °C (87 ± 5% RH, over 31 days, and the quality attributes were evaluated every two days. Models of the most significant physio-chemical quality characteristics of the post-harvest fruit were developed by using the Excel® Solver tool for all data obtained in the two crop periods. The results showed that storage and prevailing weather conditions, which differed according to the altitude of the growing site, had considerable impacts on the physio-chemical characteristics of the fruit throughout the post-harvest ripening process.

Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

2000-01-01

This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekman, Annica

2000-02-01

Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO 2 (a)), sulfate in air (SO 4 (a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO 4 (aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). Modeled concentrations of SO 2 (a), SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO 2 (a) concentration and underpredicts the SO 4 (a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO 4 (aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO 2 (a) and 2-2.5 days for SO 4 (a). For SO 2 (a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO 4 (a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO 2 (a) to SO 4 (a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations

Waste glass weathering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

1994-01-01

The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

Weather Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Wacky Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

2013-01-01

What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

Weather Radar Stations

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

Internet Weather Source

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

Linking long-range weather forecasts and heat consumption as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for town heating plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolev, A.-M.

1991-12-01

The aim of this study is to test whether long-range weather forecasts from the meteorological services can be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips. In the study the fuel consumption of heating plants and the factors determining the monthly consumption are mentioned. Degree-day statistics in Denmark for the last 30 years are explained as well as the difficulties in conjunction with the prediction of long-range weather conditions. This study compares degree days in 1989-1990 month by month with the actual and theoretic chip consumption in three different heating plants the same year. The theoretic chip consumption is calculated on the basis of degree days in a ''standard year'' and the annual chip consumption of the heating plant, among other things. Furthermore, on the basis of degree-day statistics the report makes it possible to estimate the monthly chip consumption of a heating plant in a ''standard year'', in an extremely cold year (maximum degree days), and in an extremely warm year (minimum degree days). However, not everything can be predicted, and it is not yet possible to predict reliable weather forecasts for more than 5 days ahead. The study concludes that long-range weather forecasts cannot be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for heating plants. When buying fuel chips one must still use statistics and degree days, supplimented by figures based on experience from actual chip consumption in the individual heating plant. These figures take into consideration the different types of heating plants, as well as heat supply, chip-supplier, storing facilities, other fuels, etc. (au)

The influence of weather on Golden Eagle migration in northwestern Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, R.E.; McClelland, B.R.; Mcclelland, P.T.; Key, C.H.; Bennetts, R.E.

2001-01-01

We analyzed the influence of 17 weather factors on migrating Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near the Continental Divide in Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A. Local weather measurements were recorded at automated stations on the flanks of two peaks within the migration path. During a total of 506 hr of observation, the yearly number of Golden Eagles in autumn counts (1994-96) averaged 1973; spring counts (1995 and 1996) averaged 605 eagles. Mean passage rates (eagles/hr) were 16.5 in autumn and 8.2 in spring. Maximum rates were 137 in autumn and 67 in spring. Using generalized linear modeling, we tested for the effects of weather factors on the number of eagles counted. In the autumn model, the number of eagles increased with increasing air temperature, rising barometric pressure, decreasing relative humidity, and interactions among those factors. In the spring model, the number of eagles increased with increasing wind speed, barometric pressure, and the interaction between these factors. Our data suggest that a complex interaction among weather factors influenced the number of eagles passing on a given day. We hypothesize that in complex landscapes with high topographic relief, such as Glacier National Park, numerous weather factors produce different daily combinations to which migrating eagles respond opportunistically. ?? 2001 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Mariners Weather Log

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

Pilot Weather Reports

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

Different weathering stages indicated by the magnetization of limestones: An example from the southeast Pyrenees, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, P.; Gehring, A. U.

1992-06-01

Paleomagnetic and structural data from the Pedraforca thrust sheet in the southeast Pyrenees show that the chemical weathering of the late Cretaceous limestones is a multistage process. The first weathering stage, of latest Eocene to early Oligocene age, is indicated by a chemical remanent magnetization carried by hematite. The formation of hematite as the dominant weathering product suggests a subtropical climate in northeast Spain during this period. The second weathering stage is indicated by the presence of goethite, which carries a chemical remanent magnetization parallel to the present earth field. This suggests formation of the goethite since the late Pleistocene under cooler climatic conditions similar to the present-day climate in the Pyrenees.

Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

Radar Weather Observation

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

Daily Weather Records

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

Science.gov (United States)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

2013-04-01

"Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

Winter Weather Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

Science.gov (United States)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

Balancing renewable on intra day electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sokol, R.; Bems, J.

2012-01-01

Intra day electricity markets contribute to facilitate transition from conventional sources to renewable which need to be balanced on real-time basic due to the unpredictable nature of weather. This paper describes the way from regional electricity markets to a single pan-european market model which is target model of the European Commission. Single liquid intra day electricity market where market participants can balance their portfolios is prerequisite to a full utilisation of renewable power sources and a solution for some problems experienced by TSOs with loop and parallel flows from neighbouring countries. Integrated German and French intra day electricity market which uses Flexible Intra day Trading Scheme is described in this paper as a market which could be extended further to the CEE region with very poor liquidity of its local intra day markets. (Authors)

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

2017-09-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND RELATED WEATHER PHENOMENA AT TÂRGU-MUREŞ, ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RUSZ OTTILIA

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Cumulonimbus (Cb is a vertically developed cloud, associated with some several weather phenomena, such as hail. Yearly (and in some cases monthly meteorological data from the period 1971-2005 registered at the Târgu-Mureş weather station (lat. 46°32’, lon. 24°32’, elevation 308 m were studied. However, Altocumulus (relative frequency = 25% and Stratocumulus (14% are the most frequently clouds, in summer the presence of Cumulonimbus cloud is remarkable (18%. Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope estimate (Q show positive and statistically significant trend as regards number of Cumulonimbus clouds (Q=6.458, number of days with rain shower (Q=1.000, number of days with snow shower (Q=0.250 and a decreasing, statistically significant trend in the case of the number of days with hail (Q=-0.043 and number of days with thunderstorm (Q=-0.211. Moreover, monthly number of Cb also indicate an increasing, statistically significant trend in all 12 cases. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r is statistically significant between the number of Cb and the number of days with rain shower (r=0.827 respectively the number of Cb and the number of days with rain shower (r=0.541. Daily amount of precipitations exceeded 30 mm were registered mainly in summer. They are almost related to Cumulonimbus clouds and rain showers, and they occur most frequently during the presence of TRM (Trough over Central Europe, WZ (Cyclonic Westerly and BM (Zonal Ridge across Central Europe synoptic situations (Hess-Brezowsky classification.

Fair weather atmospheric electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, R G

2011-01-01

Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Space Weather Services of Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

2004-01-01

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

Photovoltaics (PV System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristijan Brecl

2018-05-01

Full Text Available When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s. While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of the results is relatively high. However, in the presented approach, irradiance is calculated from discrete weather conditions and with correlation of forecasted meteorological data, an RMS error of 65%, and a R2 correlation factor of 0.85 is feasible.

Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekman, Annica [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

2000-02-01

Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO{sub 2}(a)), sulfate in air (SO{sub 4}(a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO{sub 4}(aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}). Modeled concentrations of SO{sub 2}(a), SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO{sub 2}(a) concentration and underpredicts the SO{sub 4}(a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO{sub 2}(a) and 2-2.5 days for SO{sub 4}(a). For SO{sub 2}(a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO{sub 4}(a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO{sub 2}(a) to SO{sub 4}(a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations.

Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS)

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

were downloaded from the University of Wyoming’s weather website (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html). An alternative site is the RAOB...Midwest US Amarillo, TX AMA 2016-01-02-12 37.12, –98.66 Dodge City, KS DDC and Lamont, OK LMN 2016-02-10-12 Norman, OK OUN...0-, 24-, 48-, 72-, or 96-h forecast from the same day, 1, 2, 3, or 4 days earlier, respectively. For example, for a 12 Coordinated Universal Time

Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winifred F Frick

Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

The influence of the weather on recreational behaviour: a micro econometric approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berkhout, P.H.G.; Brouwer, N.M.

2005-01-01

In this article the relationship between the weather and water-based recreational behavior is investigated at the microlevel. The relation is estimated by applying a zero-inflated negative binomial count model on a large dataset consisting of individually reported day-tripping behavior during a

The Nature of Mercury's Hollows, and Space Weathering Close to the Sun

Science.gov (United States)

Blewett, D. T.; Chabot, N. L.; Denevi, B. W.; Ernst, C. M.

2018-05-01

Hollows are a landform that appear to form by loss of a volatile-bearing phase from silicate rock. Hollows are very young and are likely to be forming in the present day. Hollows may be an analog for extreme weathering on near-Sun asteroids.

Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiita, Joanne

2013-07-30

The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kris A Murray

Full Text Available The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30 were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1 GI30, 2 frog body size and 3 rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario

Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

2013-01-01

The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and

Convection Weather Detection by General Aviation Pilots with Convectional and Data-Linked Graphical Weather Information Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, James P.; Latorella, Kara A.

2001-01-01

This study compares how well general aviation (GA) pilots detect convective weather in flight with different weather information sources. A flight test was conducted in which GA pilot test subjects were given different in-flight weather information cues and flown toward convective weather of moderate or greater intensity. The test subjects were not actually flying the aircraft, but were given pilot tasks representative of the workload and position awareness requirements of the en route portion of a cross country GA flight. On each flight, one test subject received weather cues typical of a flight in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), another received cues typical of flight in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and a third received cues typical of flight in IMC but augmented with a graphical weather information system (GWIS). The GWIS provided the subject with near real time data-linked weather products, including a weather radar mosaic superimposed on a moving map with a symbol depicting the aircraft's present position and direction of track. At several points during each flight, the test subjects completed short questionnaires which included items addressing their weather situation awareness and flight decisions. In particular, test subjects were asked to identify the location of the nearest convective cells. After the point of nearest approach to convective weather, the test subjects were asked to draw the location of convective weather on an aeronautical chart, along with the aircraft's present position. This paper reports preliminary results on how accurately test subjects provided with these different weather sources could identify the nearest cell of moderate or greater intensity along their route of flight. Additional flight tests are currently being conducted to complete the data set.

A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

Science.gov (United States)

Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-06-27

While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

Space Weather- Physics and Effects

CERN Document Server

Bothmer, Volker

2007-01-01

This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides Daymet output data as mosaicked gridded estimates of daily weather parameters for North America, including continuous surfaces of day length,...

Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Science.gov (United States)

Reikard, Gordon

2011-06-01

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

2011-12-01

This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulf Riediger

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

National Convective Weather Diagnostic

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

Natural Weathering Exposure Station

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

Influence of geomagnetic activity and earth weather changes on heart rate and blood pressure in young and healthy population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozheredov, V A; Chibisov, S M; Blagonravov, M L; Khodorovich, N A; Demurov, E A; Goryachev, V A; Kharlitskaya, E V; Eremina, I S; Meladze, Z A

2017-05-01

There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

1991-01-01

The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

Weather forecast

CERN Document Server

Courtier, P

1994-02-07

Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

Surface Weather Observations Hourly

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

Land Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

Weather and rheumatoid arthritis : the role of the microclimate near the skin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Patberg, Wiebe Reinier

2005-01-01

Although there is a widespread opinion that weather affects arthritis, scientific proof is lacking. The number of studies on this subject is small, which might be explained by the difficulty of monitoring disease activity in RA. Subjective variables like pain can be judged every day, but the daily

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

[Effect of antecedent dry weather period on urban storm runoff pollution load].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Li-qing; Yin, Cheng-qing; Kong, Ling-li; He, Qing-ci

2007-10-01

Twelve storm events were surveyed at Shilipu catchment in Wuhan City through three-year monitoring regime. The flow discharges, total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in runoff were measured to study the mechanism of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The relationship between the event pollution load and the antecedent dry weather period was identified to discuss the influence of the urban surface sanitation management, operation of sewer pipe maintenance and rainfall characteristics on the urban stormwater runoff pollution. It was found that the antecedent dry weather period and runoff amount were the important determining factors in the generation of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The event pollution load was positively correlated to the antecedent dry weather period between two rainfall events (R2 = 0.95, p pollution loads. The best regression equation to estimate pollution load for storm events was developed based on the antecedent dry weather period and runoff depth. Source control including improving urban street sweeping activities and operation of sewer pipe maintenance should be made to reduce the amount of available pollutant over the dry days. It is important alternative to control urban stormwater runoff pollution for Hanyang District.

Modeling Silicate Weathering for Elevated CO2 and Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Bolton, E. W.

2016-12-01

A reactive transport model (RTM) is used to assess CO2 drawdown by silicate weathering over a wide range of temperature, pCO2, and infiltration rates for basalts and granites. Although RTM's have been used extensively to model weathering of basalts and granites for present-day conditions, we extend such modeling to higher CO2 that could have existed during the Archean and Proterozoic. We also consider a wide range of surface temperatures and infiltration rates. We consider several model basalt and granite compositions. We normally impose CO2 in equilibrium with the various atmospheric ranges modeled and CO2 is delivered to the weathering zone by aqueous transport. We also consider models with fixed CO2 (aq) throughout the weathering zone as could occur in soils with partial water saturation or with plant respiration, which can strongly influence pH and mineral dissolution rates. For the modeling, we use Kinflow: a model developed at Yale that includes mineral dissolution and precipitation under kinetic control, aqueous speciation, surface erosion, dynamic porosity, permeability, and mineral surface areas via sub-grid-scale grain models, and exchange of volatiles at the surface. Most of the modeling is done in 1D, but some comparisons to 2D domains with heterogeneous permeability are made. We find that when CO2 is fixed only at the surface, the pH tends toward higher values for basalts than granites, in large part due to the presence of more divalent than monovalent cations in the primary minerals, tending to decrease rates of mineral dissolution. Weathering rates increase (as expected) with increasing CO2 and temperature. This modeling is done with the support of the Virtual Planetary Laboratory.

Sun, weather, and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

1985-01-01

The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

Clearness index in cloudy days estimated with meteorological information by multiple regression analysis; Kisho joho wo riyoshita kaiki bunseki ni yoru dontenbi no seiten shisu no suitei

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakagawa, S [Maizuru National College of Technology, Kyoto (Japan); Kenmoku, Y; Sakakibara, T [Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi (Japan); Kawamoto, T [Shizuoka University, Shizuoka (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1996-10-27

Study is under way for a more accurate solar radiation quantity prediction for the enhancement of solar energy utilization efficiency. Utilizing the technique of roughly estimating the day`s clearness index from forecast weather, the forecast weather (constituted of weather conditions such as `clear,` `cloudy,` etc., and adverbs or adjectives such as `afterward,` `temporary,` and `intermittent`) has been quantified relative to the clearness index. This index is named the `weather index` for the purpose of this article. The error high in rate in the weather index relates to cloudy days, which means a weather index falling in 0.2-0.5. It has also been found that there is a high correlation between the clearness index and the north-south wind direction component. A multiple regression analysis has been carried out, under the circumstances, for the estimation of clearness index from the maximum temperature and the north-south wind direction component. As compared with estimation of the clearness index on the basis only of the weather index, estimation using the weather index and maximum temperature achieves a 3% improvement throughout the year. It has also been learned that estimation by use of the weather index and north-south wind direction component enables a 2% improvement for summer and a 5% or higher improvement for winter. 2 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

Space Weather in Operation

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

Science.gov (United States)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

Seasonality in trauma admissions – Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Methods Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001–2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Results A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Conclusion Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year. PMID:29425210

The influence of weather on health-related help-seeking behavior of senior citizens in Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ho Ting; Chiu, Marcus Yu Lung; Wu, Cynthia Sau Ting; Lee, Tsz Cheung

2015-03-01

It is believed that extreme hot and cold weather has a negative impact on general health conditions. Much research focuses on mortality, but there is relatively little community health research. This study is aimed at identifying high-risk groups who are sensitive to extreme weather conditions, in particular, very hot and cold days, through an analysis of the health-related help-seeking patterns of over 60,000 Personal Emergency Link (PE-link) users in Hong Kong relative to weather conditions. In the study, 1,659,716 PE-link calls to the help center were analyzed. Results showed that females, older elderly, people who did not live alone, non-subsidized (relatively high-income) users, and those without medical histories of heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes were more sensitive to extreme weather condition. The results suggest that using official government weather forecast reports to predict health-related help-seeking behavior is feasible. An evidence-based strategic plan could be formulated by using a method similar to that used in this study to identify high-risk groups. Preventive measures could be established for protecting the target groups when extreme weather conditions are forecasted.

Hydro-geomorphologic events in Portugal and its association with Circulation weather types

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Susana; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Rebelo, Luís; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Zêzere, José L.

2017-04-01

Floods and landslides correspond to the most hazardous weather driven natural disasters in Portugal. A recent improvement on their characterization has been achieved with the gathering of basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015 through the DISASTER database (Zêzere et al., 2014). This database was built under the assumption that strong social impacts of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported consistently by national and regional newspapers. The DISASTER database contains detailed information on the location, date of occurrence and social impacts (fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people) of each individual hydro-geomorphologic case (1677 flood cases and 292 landslide cases). These hydro-geomorphologic disaster cases are grouped in a restrict number of DISASTER events that were selected according to the following criteria: a set of at least 3 DISASTER cases sharing the same trigger in time (with no more than 3 days without cases), which have a widespread spatial extension related to the triggering mechanism and a certain magnitude. In total, the DISASTER database includes 134 events (3.7 average days of duration) that generated high social impacts in Portugal (962 fatalities and 40878 homeless people). Each DISASTER event was characterized with the following attributes: hydro-geomorphologic event type (e.g landslides, floods, flash floods, urban floods); date of occurrence (year, month and days); duration in days; spatial location in GIS; number of fatalities, injured, evacuated and homeless people; and weather type responsible for triggering the event. The atmospheric forcing at different time scales is the main trigger for the hydro-meteorological DISASTER events occurred in Portugal. In this regard there is an urge for a more systematic assessment of the weather types associated to flood and landslide damaging events to correctly

Weather and place-based human behavior: recreational preferences and sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

de Freitas, C. R.

2015-01-01

This study examines the links between biometeorological variables and the behavior of beach recreationists along with their rating of overall weather conditions. To identify and describe significance of on-site atmospheric conditions, two separate forms of response are examined. The first is sensory perception of the immediate atmospheric surround expressed verbally, which was the subject of earlier work. In the research reported here, on-site observations of behavior that reflect the effects of weather and climate are examined. By employing, independently, separate indicators of on-site experience, the reliability of each is examined and interpreted and apparent threshold conditions verified. The study site is King's Beach located on the coast of Queensland, Australia. On-site observations of atmospheric variables and beach user behavior are made for the daylight hours of 45 days spread over a 12-month period. The results show that behavioral data provide reliable and meaningful indications of the significance of the atmospheric environment for leisure. Atmospheric conditions within the zone of acceptability are those that the beach users can readily cope with or modify by a range of minor behavioral adjustments. Optimal weather conditions appear to be those requiring no specific behavioral adjustment. Attendance levels reflect only the outer limits of acceptability of the meteorological environment, while duration of visit enables calibration of levels of approval in so far as it reflects rating of on-site weather within a broad zone of tolerance. In a broad theoretical sense, the results add to an understanding of the relationship between weather and human behavior. This information is potentially useful in effective tourism management and planning.

Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2010-06-01

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

2005-01-01

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

Diurnal cycling of urban aerosols under different weather regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Gregorič, Asta; Drinovec, Luka; Močnik, Griša; Remškar, Maja; Vaupotič, Janja; Stanič, Samo

2016-04-01

A one month measurement campaign was performed in summer 2014 in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia (population 280,000), aiming to study temporal and spatial distribution of urban aerosols and the mixing state of primary and secondary aerosols. Two background locations were chosen for this purpose, the first one in the city center (urban background - KIS) and the second one in the suburban background (Brezovica). Simultaneous measurements of black carbon (BC) and particle number size distribution of submicron aerosols (PM1) were conducted at both locations. In the summer season emission from traffic related sources is expected to be the main local contribution to BC concentration. Concentrations of aerosol species and gaseous pollutants within the planetary boundary layer are controlled by the balance between emission sources of primary aerosols and gases, production of secondary aerosols, chemical reactions of precursor gases under solar radiation and the rate of dilution by mixing within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) as well as with tropospheric air. Only local emission sources contribute to BC concentration during the stable PBL with low mixing layer height, whereas during the time of fully mixed PBL, regionally transported BC and other aerosols can contribute to the surface measurements. The study describes the diurnal behaviour of the submicron aerosol at the urban and suburban background location under different weather regimes. Particles in three size modes - nucleation (humidity, wind speed and direction), diurnal profile differs for sunny, cloudy and rainy days. Nucleation mode particles were found to be subjected to lower daily variation and only slightly influenced by weather, as opposed to Aitken and accumulation mode particles. The highest correlation between BC and particle number concentration is observed during stable atmospheric conditions in the night and morning hours and is attributed to different particle size modes, depending on the

Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

Science.gov (United States)

... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Activity assessment first-half 2006; Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Bilan d'activite premier semestre 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in the first half of 2006: market conditions, prices and traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2}), new active members, and liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

Olivine Dissolution in Seawater: Implications for CO2 Sequestration through Enhanced Weathering in Coastal Environments

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Enhanced weathering of (ultra)basic silicate rocks such as olivine-rich dunite has been proposed as a large-scale climate engineering approach. When implemented in coastal environments, olivine weathering is expected to increase seawater alkalinity, thus resulting in additional CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. However, the mechanisms of marine olivine weathering and its effect on seawater–carbonate chemistry remain poorly understood. Here, we present results from batch reaction experiments, in which forsteritic olivine was subjected to rotational agitation in different seawater media for periods of days to months. Olivine dissolution caused a significant increase in alkalinity of the seawater with a consequent DIC increase due to CO2 invasion, thus confirming viability of the basic concept of enhanced silicate weathering. However, our experiments also identified several important challenges with respect to the detailed quantification of the CO2 sequestration efficiency under field conditions, which include nonstoichiometric dissolution, potential pore water saturation in the seabed, and the potential occurrence of secondary reactions. Before enhanced weathering of olivine in coastal environments can be considered an option for realizing negative CO2 emissions for climate mitigation purposes, these aspects need further experimental assessment. PMID:28281750

Improved Weather Forecasting for the Dynamic Scheduling System of the Green Bank Telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Kari; Maddalena, Ronald

2018-01-01

The Robert C Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) uses a software system that dynamically schedules observations based on models of vertical weather forecasts produced by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS provides hourly forecasted values for ~60 layers that extend into the stratosphere over the observatory. We use models, recommended by the Radiocommunication Sector of the International Telecommunications Union, to derive the absorption coefficient in each layer for each hour in the NWS forecasts and for all frequencies over which the GBT has receivers, 0.1 to 115 GHz. We apply radiative transfer models to derive the opacity and the atmospheric contributions to the system temperature, thereby deriving forecasts applicable to scheduling radio observations for up to 10 days into the future. Additionally, the algorithms embedded in the data processing pipeline use historical values of the forecasted opacity to calibrate observations. Until recently, we have concentrated on predictions for high frequency (> 15 GHz) observing, as these need to be scheduled carefully around bad weather. We have been using simple models for the contribution of rain and clouds since we only schedule low-frequency observations under these conditions. In this project, we wanted to improve the scheduling of the GBT and data calibration at low frequencies by deriving better algorithms for clouds and rain. To address the limitation at low frequency, the observatory acquired a Radiometrics Corporation MP-1500A radiometer, which operates in 27 channels between 22 and 30 GHz. By comparing 16 months of measurements from the radiometer against forecasted system temperatures, we have confirmed that forecasted system temperatures are indistinguishable from those measured under good weather conditions. Small miss-calibrations of the radiometer data dominate the comparison. By using recalibrated radiometer measurements, we looked at bad weather days to derive better models for forecasting the

Copper leaching of MSWI bottom ash co-disposed with refuse: effect of short-term accelerated weathering.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Lianghu; Guo, Guangzhai; Shi, Xinlong; Zuo, Minyu; Niu, Dongjie; Zhao, Aihua; Zhao, Youcai

2013-06-01

Co-disposal of refuse with municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) bottom ash (IBA) either multi-layered as landfill cover or mixed with refuse could pose additional risk to the environment because of enhanced leaching of heavy metals, especially Cu. This study applied short-term accelerated weathering to IBA, and monitored the mineralogical and chemical properties of IBA during the weathering process. Cu extractability of the weathered IBA was then evaluated using standard leaching protocols (i.e. SPLP and TCLP) and co-disposal leaching procedure. The results showed that weathering had little or no beneficial effect on Cu leaching in SPLP and TCLP, which can be explained by the adsorption and complexation of Cu with DOM. However, the Cu leaching of weathered IBA was reduced significantly when situated in fresh simulated landfill leachate. This was attributed to weakening Cu complexation with fulvic acid or hydrophilic fractions and/or intensifying Cu absorption to neoformed hydr(oxide) minerals in weathered IBA. The amount of total leaching Cu and Cu in free or labile complex fraction (the fraction with the highest mobility and bio-toxicity) of the 408-h weathered IBA were remarkably decreased by 86.3% and 97.6% in the 15-day co-disposal leaching test. Accelerated weathering of IBA may be an effective pretreatment method to decrease Cu leaching prior to its co-disposal with refuse. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of weather and its changes on emotional state - individual characteristics that make us vulnerable

Science.gov (United States)

Spasova, Z.

2011-03-01

Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychological and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio tone, working ability, and concentration; hence their significance in various domains of economic life such as health care, education, transportation, and tourism. The present pilot study was conducted in Sofia, Bulgaria over a period of eight months, using five psychological methods: Eysenck Personality Questionnaire, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state, Test for evaluation of moods and Test ''Self-confidence-Activity-Mood''. The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions in order to include a maximal number of meteorological elements in the analysis. Sixteen weather types are defined depending on the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were also considered. The results obtained by t-test showed that the different categories of weather led to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effects on human emotions - but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as ''unfavorable'', has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension ''neuroticism'', has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more ''resistant'' to the weather influence on their emotions, while those who are emotionally unstable have a stronger dependence on the impacts of weather.

THE VOLATILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRICING OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

OpenAIRE

Benth, Fred Espen; Saltyte-Benth, Jurate

2005-01-01

We propose an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with seasonal volatility to model the time dynamics of daily average temperatures. The model is fitted to almost 43 years of daily observations recorded in Stockholm, one of the European cities for which there is a trade in weather futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Explicit pricing dynamics for futures contracts written on the number of heating/cooling degree-days (so-called HDD/CDD-futures) and the cumulative average daily ...

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Review on the Strength Development Required for the Concrete Structure of Nuclear Power Plant under Cold Weather Conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Kyung Teak; Park, Chun Jin; Ryu, Gum Sung; Kim, Do Gyeum; Lee, Jang Hwa [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

As a part of a Department of Energy-Nuclear According to the specifications for the construction execution for a nuclear power plant (NPP), the cold weather concrete should be facilitated that comply with the regulations of ACI-306R. Here, in terms of the standards applied to the cold weather concrete, such concrete should be applied in the case where the daily average temperature is 5 .deg. C or less. So, according to the analysis on the average temperature in winter over the last one year at each NPP construction area, it was found that such had lowered by about 0.5 - 2 .deg. C as compared to the temperature during the normal years (the last ten years) and the number of days applied to the cold weather concrete according to the ACI regulations was shown as 83, so as around 1/4 of year falls into the cold weather conditions and furthermore the recent weather is getting severe, it is necessary to perform the appropriate insulation curing for the cold weather concrete. On the other hand, according to the regulations with regards to the curing conditions for cold weather concrete, the insulation curing of such should be appropriately performed under an environment of 5 .deg. C or greater until the strength of 3.5 MPa (500 Psi) develops. Likewise, according to the regulations regarding the cold weather concrete in the domestic concrete specifications, the insulation curing should be performed until a strength development of 5 MPa (715 Psi) considering the safety factor indicated to the ACI regulation under the temperature of 5 .deg. C or greater. According to the above-mentioned regulations, the NPP structure is required to develop a minimum strength of 5 MPa or greater, and to maintain such important qualities, including strength development, early anti-freezing and duality under cold weather conditions. However, even though the early strength of 5 MPa or greater is secured under the recent abnormal weather conditions and cold weather conditions, if the structure is

Synoptic weather typing applied to air pollution mortality among the elderly in 10 Canadian cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanos, Jennifer K; Cakmak, Sabit; Bristow, Corben; Brion, Vladislav; Tremblay, Neil; Martin, Sara L; Sheridan, Scott S

2013-10-01

Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale weather systems) affect ambient levels of air pollution, as well as the relationship between air pollution and human health. To investigate the air pollution-mortality relationship within weather types and seasons, and to determine which combination of atmospheric conditions may pose increased health threats in the elderly age categories. The relative risk of mortality (RR) due to air pollution was examined using Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) within specific weather types. Analysis was completed by weather type and age group (all ages, ≤64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) in ten Canadian cities from 1981 to 1999. There was significant modification of RR by weather type and age. When examining the entire population, weather type was shown to have the greatest modifying effect on the risk of dying due to ozone (O3). This effect was highest on average for the dry tropical (DT) weather type, with the all-age RR of mortality at a population weighted mean (PWM) found to be 1.055 (95% CI 1.026-1.085). All-weather type risk estimates increased with age due to exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). On average, RR increased by 2.6, 3.8 and 1.5% for the respective pollutants between the ≤64 and ≥85 age categories. Conversely, mean ozone estimates remained relatively consistent with age. Elevated levels of air pollution were found to be detrimental to the health of elderly individuals for all weather types. However, the entire population was negatively effected by air pollution on the hot dry (DT) and hot humid (MT) days. We identified a significant modification of RR for mortality due to air pollution by age, which is enhanced under specific weather types. Efforts should be targeted at minimizing pollutant exposure to the elderly and/or all age groups with respect to weather type in question. Crown Copyright © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

OpenAIRE

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-01-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

Influence of weather conditions on natural radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simion, Florin; Simion, Elena; Cuculeanu, Vasile; Mihalcea, Ion

2011-01-01

This paper presents the dependence of the natural radioactivity on atmospheric weather conditions: air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, atmospherical precipitations and relative humidity. The values used in the paper were taken from the environmental radioactivity monitoring in Botosani city, Romania, as measured by the Environmental Radioactivity Surveillance Station. Daily global measurements of atmospheric deposition beta and atmospheric aerosols as well were carried out, including the indirect determination of radon and thoron, and the absorbed gamma dose rate in air, as well. Sampling and measurement frequency depended on the type of sample analyzed as follows: atmospheric deposition were taken daily, atmospheric aerosols were collected 4 times/day, with a sampling interval of 5 hours while the air absorbed dose rate was determined at a hourly rate. The coefficient of multiple correlation between the type of analysis and weather conditions, was determined. By using multiple linear regression it was highlighted the natural radioactivity dependence on the atmospheric conditions and meteorological parameters by a mathematical expression that can be used to determine missing values in a time series of measured data. By predicting the measured values our procedure can be considered as a validation process of the measurement accuracy

Effect of carbonic anhydrase on silicate weathering and carbonate formation at present day CO₂ concentrations compared to primordial values.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Leilei; Lian, Bin; Hao, Jianchao; Liu, Congqiang; Wang, Shijie

2015-01-13

It is widely recognized that carbonic anhydrase (CA) participates in silicate weathering and carbonate formation. Nevertheless, it is still not known if the magnitude of the effect produced by CA on surface rock evolution changes or not. In this work, CA gene expression from Bacillus mucilaginosus and the effects of recombination protein on wollastonite dissolution and carbonate formation under different conditions are explored. Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was used to explore the correlation between CA gene expression and sufficiency or deficiency in calcium and CO₂ concentration. The results show that the expression of CA genes is negatively correlated with both CO₂ concentration and ease of obtaining soluble calcium. A pure form of the protein of interest (CA) is obtained by cloning, heterologous expression, and purification. The results from tests of the recombination protein on wollastonite dissolution and carbonate formation at different levels of CO₂ concentration show that the magnitudes of the effects of CA and CO₂ concentration are negatively correlated. These results suggest that the effects of microbial CA in relation to silicate weathering and carbonate formation may have increased importance at the modern atmospheric CO₂ concentration compared to 3 billion years ago.

KSC Weather and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

2016-01-01

This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

Weather and road capacity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Thomas Christian

2014-01-01

The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

Tales of future weather

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

2015-01-01

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Bosart, L. F.; Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.

2016-12-01

High-impact weather events (HWEs), defined by episodes of excessive precipitation or periods of well above or well below normal temperatures, can pose important predictability challenges on medium-range (8-16 day) time scales. Furthermore, HWEs can contribute disproportionately to temperature and precipitation anomaly statistics for a particular season. This disproportionate contribution suggests that HWEs need to be considered in describing and understanding the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that operate at the weather-climate intersection. HWEs typically develop in conjunction with highly amplified flow patterns that permit an extensive latitudinal exchange of polar and tropical air masses. Highly amplified flow patterns over North America often occur in response to a reconfiguration of the large-scale upstream flow pattern over the North Pacific Ocean. The large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific, North America, and western North Atlantic during the latter half of March 2016 was characterized by frequent cyclonic wave breaking (CWB). This large-scale flow pattern enabled three sequentially linked HWEs to develop over the continental United States. The first HWE was a challenging-to-predict cyclogenesis event on 23-24 March in the central Plains that resulted in both a major snowstorm along the Colorado Front Range and a severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. The second HWE was a severe weather outbreak that occurred over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys on 27-28 March. The third HWE was the development of well below normal temperatures over the eastern United States that followed the formation of a high-latitude omega block over northwestern North America during 28 March-1 April. This study will examine (1) the role that CWB over the North Pacific and North America played in the evolution of the flow pattern during late-March 2016 and the development of the three HWEs and (2) the skill of GFS operational and ensemble

Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

2015-09-01

Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

North America Synoptic Weather Maps

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Bobriková

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D

Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

1990-01-01

Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2006-01-01

An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

2017-07-01

Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

Science.gov (United States)

Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

Science.gov (United States)

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts

Designing a Weather Station

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Harry T.

2012-01-01

The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32

Factors Affecting the Result of Matches in the One Day Format of Cricket

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ananda Bandulasiri

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Factors contributing to winning games are imperative, as the ultimate objective in a game is victory. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that characterize the game of cricket, and to investigate the factors that truly influence the result of a game using the data collected from the Champions Trophy cricket tournament. According to the results, this cricket tournament can be characterized using the factors of batting, bowling, and decision-making. Further investigation suggests that the rank of the team and the number of runs they score have the most significant influence on the result of games. As far as the effectiveness of assigning bowlers is concerned, the Australian team has done a fabulous job compared to the rest of the teams. (original abstract

Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1997-12-31

The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

Vandenberg Air Force Base Upper Level Wind Launch Weather Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.; Wheeler, Mark M.

2012-01-01

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman III ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The maximum wind speed and 1000-ft shear values for each sounding in each subseason were determined. To accurately calculate the PoV, the AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum shear datasets. Ultimately it was discovered that the maximum wind speeds follow a Gaussian distribution while the maximum shear values follow a lognormal distribution. These results were applied when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition to the requirements outlined in the original task plan, the AMU also included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on day of launch. The interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for this project was developed in

Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

Laboratory weathering of combusted oil shale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Essington, M.E.

1991-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the mineralogy and leachate chemistry of three combusted oil shales (two Green River Formation and one New Albany) in a laboratory weathering environment using the humidity cell technique. The mineralogy of the combusted western oil shales (Green River Formation) is process dependent. In general, processing resulted in the formation of anhydrite, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and hematite. During the initial stages of weathering, lime, periclase, and anhydrite dissolve and ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite precipitates. The initial leachates are highly alkaline, saline, and dominated by Na, hydroxide, and SO 4 . As weathering continues, ettringite dissolves, gypsum and calcite precipitate, and the leachates are dominated by Mg, SO 4 , and CO 3 . Leachate pH is rapidly reduced to between 8.5 and 9 with leaching. The combusted eastern oil shale (New Albany) is composed of quartz, illite, hematite, and orthoclase. Weathering results in the precipitation of gypsum. The combusted eastern oil shale did not display a potential to produce acid drainage. Leachate chemistry was dominated by Ca and SO 4 . Element concentrations continually decreased with weathering. IN a western disposal environment receiving minimal atmospheric precipitation, spent oil shale will remain in the initial stages of weathering, and highly alkaline and saline conditions will dominate leachate chemistry. In an eastern disposal environment, soluble salts will be rapidly removed from the spent oil shale to potentially affect the surrounding environment

Portable Weather Applications for General Aviation Pilots.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahlstrom, Ulf; Ohneiser, Oliver; Caddigan, Eamon

2016-09-01

The objective of this study was to examine the potential benefits and impact on pilot behavior from the use of portable weather applications. Seventy general aviation (GA) pilots participated in the study. Each pilot was randomly assigned to an experimental or a control group and flew a simulated single-engine GA aircraft, initially under visual meteorological conditions (VMC). The experimental group was equipped with a portable weather application during flight. We recorded measures for weather situation awareness (WSA), decision making, cognitive engagement, and distance from the aircraft to hazardous weather. We found positive effects from the use of the portable weather application, with an increased WSA for the experimental group, which resulted in credibly larger route deviations and credibly greater distances to hazardous weather (≥30 dBZ cells) compared with the control group. Nevertheless, both groups flew less than 20 statute miles from hazardous weather cells, thus failing to follow current weather-avoidance guidelines. We also found a credibly higher cognitive engagement (prefrontal oxygenation levels) for the experimental group, possibly reflecting increased flight planning and decision making on the part of the pilots. Overall, the study outcome supports our hypothesis that portable weather displays can be used without degrading pilot performance on safety-related flight tasks, actions, and decisions as measured within the constraints of the present study. However, it also shows that an increased WSA does not automatically translate to enhanced flight behavior. The study outcome contributes to our knowledge of the effect of portable weather applications on pilot behavior and decision making. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

Moderating Effects of Weather-Related Factors on a Physical Activity Intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, Whitney A; Spring, Bonnie; Phillips, Siobhan M; Siddique, Juned

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study is to identify whether weather-related factors moderate the effect of a physical activity (PA) intervention. Participants (N=204, 77% female, mean age 33 [SD=11] years, mean BMI 28.2 [SD=7.1]) from the Make Better Choices 1 trial, enrolled April 2005 to April 2008, were randomized to one of two treatment conditions: (1) increase moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) treatment group, or (2) decrease sedentary behavior control group. Participants wore an accelerometer for 5 weeks: a 2-week baseline assessment followed by a 3-week intervention. Accelerometer data were used to estimate minutes/day of MVPA. Average daily temperature, day length, and precipitation were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center and combined with the accelerometer data. Linear mixed effects models were used to determine whether these weather-related factors moderated the effect of the intervention on MVPA. Separate models were fit for season, daily average temperature, and day length. There was a significant moderating effect of season on MVPA such that the PA intervention, as compared with control, increased MVPA 10.4 minutes more in the summer than in the winter (95% CI=1.1, 19.6, p=0.029). There was a significant moderating effect of daily temperature such that every 10°F increase in temperature was associated with an additional 1.5 minutes/day increase in the difference in MVPA increase between the two intervention conditions (95% CI=0.1, 2.9, p=0.015). There was a significant moderating effect of day length such that every additional hour of daylight was associated with a 2.23-minute increase in the PA intervention's impact on increasing MVPA (95% CI=0.8, 3.7, p=0.002). Day length and temperature had a significant moderating effect on change in MVPA during a PA intervention such that the intervention was less effective on colder days and on shorter days, independently. These results suggest that strategies to overcome environmental barriers

From the weather forecast to the prognostic moisture content of dry agricultural crops

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atzema, A.J.

1994-01-01

Part 1

The aim of the study of grass is to forecast the drying of cut grass up to five days ahead, hourly. The first investigated problem is the response of the drying of cut grass to the weather elements. Next a simple model and an advanced model for the drying of cut

Directable weathering of concave rock using curvature estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Michael D; Farley, McKay; Butler, Joseph; Beardall, Matthew

2010-01-01

We address the problem of directable weathering of exposed concave rock for use in computer-generated animation or games. Previous weathering models that admit concave surfaces are computationally inefficient and difficult to control. In nature, the spheroidal and cavernous weathering rates depend on the surface curvature. Spheroidal weathering is fastest in areas with large positive mean curvature and cavernous weathering is fastest in areas with large negative mean curvature. We simulate both processes using an approximation of mean curvature on a voxel grid. Both weathering rates are also influenced by rock durability. The user controls rock durability by editing a durability graph before and during weathering simulation. Simulations of rockfall and colluvium deposition further improve realism. The profile of the final weathered rock matches the shape of the durability graph up to the effects of weathering and colluvium deposition. We demonstrate the top-down directability and visual plausibility of the resulting model through a series of screenshots and rendered images. The results include the weathering of a cube into a sphere and of a sheltered inside corner into a cavern as predicted by the underlying geomorphological models.

Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøvith, Thomas

2008-01-01

classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

GNSS monitoring of the ionosphere for Space Weather services

Science.gov (United States)

Krankowski, A.; Sieradzki, R.; Zakharenkova, I. E.; Cherniak, I. V.

2012-04-01

The International GNSS Service (IGS) Ionosphere Working Group routinely provides the users global ionosphere maps (GIMs) of vertical total electron content (vTEC). The IGS GIMs are provided with spatial resolution of 5.0 degrees x 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude, respectively. The current temporal resolution is 2 hours, however, 1-hour maps are delivered as a pilot project. There are three types IGS GIMs: the final, rapid and predicted. The latencies of the IGS ionospheric final and rapid products are 10 days and 1 day, respectively. The predicted GIMs are generated for 1 and 2 days in advance. There are four IGS Associate Analysis Centres (IAACs) that provide ionosphere maps computed with independent methodologies using GNSS data. These maps are uploaded to the IGS Ionosphere Combination and Validation Center at the GRL/UWM (Geodynamics Research Laboratory of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) that produces the IGS official ionospheric products, which are published online via ftp and www. On the other hand, the increasing number of permanently tracking GNSS stations near the North Geomagnetic Pole allow for using satellite observations to detect the ionospheric disturbances at high latitudes with even higher spatial resolution. In the space weather service developed at GRL/UWM, the data from the Arctic stations belonging to IGS/EPN/POLENET networks were used to study TEC fluctuations and scintillations. Since the beginning of 2011, a near real-time service presenting the conditions in the ionosphere have been operational at GRL/UWM www site. The rate of TEC index (ROTI) expressed in TECU/min is used as a measure of TEC fluctuations. The service provides 2-hour maps of the TEC variability. In addition, for each day the daily map of the ionospheric fluctuations as a function geomagnetic local time is also created. This presentation shows the architecture, algorithms, performance and future developments of the IGS GIMs and this new space

The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

2002-01-01

The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

Comparison of good days and sick days of school-age children with cancer reflected through their drawings.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Lauri A; Bratton, Heather; Nguyen, Anna; Parker, Kori; Phinney, Susanna

2017-10-01

Childhood cancer disrupts children's daily life experiences. Eliciting children's perspectives regarding their life experiences during cancer treatment can be challenging. The purpose of this study was to characterize elementary school-age children's "good days" and "sick days" through their drawings. This study used draw-and-tell interviews, a developmentally sensitive arts-based technique that supports children's recall and communication of information, facilitating a deeper understanding of children's personal interpretation and meaning of a given phenomenon of interest. Children were asked to draw pictures representing both a "good day" and a "sick day." Following completion of each drawing, research team members used a semi-structured interview guide to elicit children's explanations of their pictures. Content analysis techniques were used to descriptively characterize children's drawings followed by thematic analysis to identify commonalities. Participants were 27 children 6.33-12.83 years of age (mean 9.16 years; SD = 1.9) receiving treatment for cancer. "Good day" and "sick day" pictures were similar with regards to the presence of the child, the inclusion of other individuals, and the type of art medium used. Children's pictures characterized "good days" as being happy, outside in sunny weather, and engaged in activities. In contrast, "sick days" were characterized as feeling sad, lying down or reclining, and experiencing illness-related symptoms. Children's drawings illustrate their capacity to provide rich personal data related to their "good days" and "sick days." Incorporating arts-based strategies in the clinical setting may provide a child-centric strategy to understand the child's perspective and direct interventions.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering.

Science.gov (United States)

Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Phil; Hartmann, Jens

2014-05-06

Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the choice of source rocks and material comminution technique dominate the CO2 efficiency of enhanced weathering. CO2 emissions from transport amount to on average 0.5-3% of potentially sequestered CO2. The emissions of material mining and application are negligible. After accounting for all emissions, 0.5-1.0 t CO2 can be sequestered on average per tonne of rock, translating into a unit cost from 1.6 to 9.9 GJ per tonne CO2 sequestered by enhanced weathering. However, to control or reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations substantially with enhanced weathering would require very large amounts of rock. Before enhanced weathering could be applied on large scales, more research is needed to assess weathering rates, potential side effects, social acceptability, and mechanisms of governance.

The Optimal Dispatch of a Power System Containing Virtual Power Plants under Fog and Haze Weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajing Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available With the growing influence of fog and haze (F-H weather and the rapid development of distributed energy resources (DERs and smart grids, the concept of the virtual power plant (VPP employed in this study would help to solve the dispatch problem caused by multiple DERs connected to the power grid. The effects of F-H weather on photovoltaic output forecast, load forecast and power system dispatch are discussed according to real case data. The wavelet neural network (WNN model was employed to predict photovoltaic output and load, considering F-H weather, based on the idea of “similar days of F-H”. The multi-objective optimal dispatch model of a power system adopted in this paper contains several VPPs and conventional power plants, under F-H weather, and the mixed integer linear programming (MILP and the Yalmip toolbox of MATLAB were adopted to solve the dispatch model. The analysis of the results from a case study proves the validity and feasibility of the model and the algorithms.

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Wedan, R. W.

1983-01-01

The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Weatherization Works--Summary of Findings from the Retrospective Evaluation of the U.S. DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carroll, David [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Blasnik, Michael [Blasnik & Associates, Roslindale, MA (United States); Dalhoff, Greg [Dalhoff & Associates, Verona, WI (United States); Berger, Jacqueline [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Rose, Erin M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Eisenberg, Joel Fred [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ucar, Ferit [APPRISE, Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Bensch, Ingo [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cowan, Claire [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2015-10-01

This report presents a summary of the studies and analyses that compose the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). WAP provides grants to Grantees (i.e., states) that then provide grants to Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies) to weatherize low-income homes. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2008. The retrospective evaluation produced twenty separate reports, including this summary. Four separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, small multifamily, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmental emissions, macroeconomic, and health and household-related benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program, its recipients, and those eligible for the program. Major field studies are also summarized, including a major indoor air quality study and a follow-up ventilation study, an in-depth in-field assessment of weatherization work and quality, and a study that assesses reasons for variations in energy savings across homes. Results of surveys of weatherization staff, occupants, occupants satisfaction with weatherization services provided, and weatherization trainees are summarized. Lastly, this report summarizes a set of fifteen case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies.

Space Weather Concerns for All-Electric Propulsion Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Richard B.; Pitchford, David

2015-08-01

The introduction of all-electric propulsion satellites is a game changer in the quest for low-cost access to space. It also raises new questions for satellite manufacturers, operators, and the insurance industry regarding the general risks and specifically the threat of adverse space weather. The issues surrounding this new concept were discussed by research scientists and up to 30 representatives from the space industry at a special meeting at the European Space Weather Week held in November 2014. Here we report on the discussions at that meeting. We show that for a satellite undergoing electric orbit raising for 200 days the radiation dose due to electrons is equivalent to approximately 6.7 year operation at geostationary orbit or approximately half the typical design life. We also show that electrons can be injected into the slot region (8000 km) where they pose a risk of satellite internal charging. The results highlight the importance of additional radiation protection. We also discuss the benefits, the operational considerations, the other risks from the Van Allen radiation belts, the new business opportunities for space insurance, and the need for space situation awareness in medium Earth orbit where electric orbit raising takes place.

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

2011-01-01

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

Chromium isotope fractionation during oxidative weathering of a modern basaltic weathering profile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

D'Arcy, Joan Mary; Døssing, Lasse Nørbye; Frei, Robert

Chromium can be used as a tracer of redox sensitive environmental processes. In soils Cr (III) is inert, immobile and resides predominantly in minerals, clays and oxides. Cr (VI) is toxic, soluble and mobile and is usually lost from the soil to local run off. Chromium isotopes have been shown...... to fractionate under both reducing and oxidizing conditions [1, 2]. Recent studies on d53Cr isotopes in laterite soils show that oxidative weathering of Cr-bearing rocks is accompanied by an isotopic fractionation, where by the lighter isotopes are retained in the residual soil and the heavier isotope...... is enriched in local runoff [1]. This study aims to quantify the stable Cr isotope composition of two modern basaltic weathering profiles, to help better understand the processes that oxidize inert Cr (III) to toxic Cr (VI). We sampled basaltic weathering profiles and associated river waters from areas of two...

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Watari

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

2017-08-01

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

The Weather and Ménière's Disease: A Longitudinal Analysis in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Wiebke; Sarran, Christophe; Ronan, Natalie; Barrett, George; Whinney, David J; Fleming, Lora E; Osborne, Nicholas J; Tyrrell, Jessica

2017-02-01

Changes in the weather influence symptom severity in Ménière's disease (MD). MD is an unpredictable condition that significantly impacts on quality of life. It is suggested that fluctuations in the weather, especially atmospheric pressure may influence the symptoms of MD. However, to date, limited research has investigated the impact of the weather on MD. In a longitudinal study, a mobile phone application collected data from 397 individuals (277 females and 120 males with an average age of 50 yr) from the UK reporting consultant-diagnosed MD. Daily symptoms (vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus, hearing loss, and attack prevalence) and GPS locations were collected; these data were linked with Met Office weather data (including atmospheric pressure, humidity, temperature, visibility, and wind speed). Symptom severity and attack prevalence were reduced on days when atmospheric pressure was higher. When atmospheric pressure was below 1,013 hectopascals, the risk of an attack was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.54); when the humidity was above 90%, the risk of an attack was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.49). This study provides the strongest evidence to date that changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity are associated with symptom exacerbation in MD. Improving our understanding of the role of weather and other environmental triggers in Ménière's may reduce the uncertainty associated with living with this condition, significantly contributing to improved quality of life.

44 CFR 15.3 - Access to Mt. Weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Access to Mt. Weather. 15.3... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY TRAINING CENTER § 15.3 Access to Mt. Weather. Mt. Weather contains classified material and areas...

Space Weather Operation at KASI With Van Allen Probes Beacon Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jongkil; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Giuseppe, Romeo; Ukhorskiy, Sasha; Sibeck, David; Kessel, Ramona; Mauk, Barry; Giles, Barbara; Gu, Bon-Jun; Lee, Hyesook; Park, Young-Deuk; Lee, Jaejin

2018-02-01

The Van Allen Probes (VAPs) are the only modern National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) spacecraft broadcasting real-time data on the Earth's radiation belts for space weather operations. Since 2012, the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has contributed to the receipt of these data via a 7 m satellite-tracking antenna and used these beacon data for space weather operations. An approximately 15 min period is required from measurement to acquisition of Level-1 data. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of VAP data for monitoring space weather conditions at geostationary orbit (GEO) by highlighting the Saint Patrick's Day storm of 2015. During that storm, Probe-A observed a significant increase in the relativistic electron flux at 3 RE. Those electrons diffused outward resulting in a large increase of the electron flux >2 MeV at GEO, which potentially threatened satellite operations. Based on this study, we conclude that the combination of VAP data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (NOAA-GOES) data can provide improved space environment information to geostationary satellite operators. In addition, the findings obtained indicate that more data-receiving sites would be necessary and data connections improved if this or a similar system were to be used as an operational data service.

A Comparitive Analysis of the Influence of Weather on the Flight Altitudes of Birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; van Loon, Emiel; van Gasteren, Hans; van Belle, Jelmer; Bouten, Willem; Buurma, Luit

2006-01-01

Birds pose a serious risk to flight safety worldwide. A Bird Avoidance Model (BAM) is being developed in the Netherlands to reduce the risk of bird aircraft collisions. In order to develop a temporally and spatially dynamic model of bird densities, data are needed on the flight-altitude distribution of birds and how this is influenced by weather. This study focuses on the dynamics of flight altitudes of several species of birds during local flights over land in relation to meteorological conditions.We measured flight altitudes of several species in the southeastern Netherlands using tracking radar during spring and summer 2000. Representatives of different flight strategy groups included four species: a soaring species (buzzard ), an obligatory aerial forager (swift Apus apus), a flapping and gliding species (blackheaded gull Larus ridibundus), and a flapping species (starling Sturnus vulgaris).Maximum flight altitudes varied among species, during the day and among days. Weather significantly influenced the flight altitudes of all species studied. Factors such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric instability, cloud cover, and sea level pressure were related to flight altitudes. Different combinations of factors explained 40% 70% of the variance in maximum flight altitudes. Weather affected flight strategy groups differently. Compared to flapping species, buzzards and swifts showed stronger variations in maximum daily altitude and f lew higher under conditions reflecting stronger thermal convection. The dynamic vertical distributions of birds are important for risk assessment and mitigation measures in flight safety as well as wind turbine studies.

The Challenge of Weather Prediction

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

The weather and Climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.

2016-12-01

In the atmosphere, nonlinear terms are typically about a trillion times larger than linear ones; we anticipate the emergence of high level turbulence laws. The classical turbulence laws were restricted to homogeneous and isotropic systems; to apply them to the atmosphere they must be generalized to account for strong anisotropy (especially stratification) and variability (intermittency). Over the last 30 years, using scaling symmetry principles and multifractal cascades, this has been done. While hitherto they were believed applicable only up to ≈ 100 m, (generalized) turbulence laws now anisotropic and multifractal, they cover spatial scales up planetary in extent and in time well beyond weather scales to include the climate. These higher level laws are stochastic in nature and provide the theoretical basis both for stochastic parametrizations as well as stochastic forecasting. In the time domain the emergent laws for fluctuations DT (for example in temperature T) have means T > ≈ DtH i.e. they are scaling (power laws) in the time interval Dt. We find find exponents H>0 (fluctuations increase with scale) up to ≈ Dt ≈10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures, the analogous transition in the ocean is at Dt ≈ 1 year on Mars it is Dt ≈ 2 sols). At larger Dt, there is a transition to a new "macroweather" regime with H≈30 years (anthropocene; larger in the pre-industrial epoch), new climate processes begin to dominate, leading to H>0. "The climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get": the climate is thought to be a kind of "average weather". However this "expected" behavior is macroweather, not the climate. On the contrary, the climate is the new even lower frequency regime at scales Dt> 30 yrs and it has statistical properties very similar to the weather. At these scales, "macroweather is what you expect, the climate is what you get". The scaling in the macroweather regime implies that there is a long-term memory. We show how the

49 CFR 192.231 - Protection from weather.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Protection from weather. 192.231 Section 192.231 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... weather. The welding operation must be protected from weather conditions that would impair the quality of...

Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doeswijk, T.G.

2007-01-01

In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

Gap-filling of dry weather flow rate and water quality measurements in urban catchments by a time series modelling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandoval, Santiago; Vezzaro, Luca; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2016-01-01

seeks to evaluate the potential of the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), a time-series modelling/gap-filling method, to complete dry weather time series. The SSA method is tested by reconstructing 1000 artificial discontinuous time series, randomly generated from real flow rate and total suspended......Flow rate and water quality dry weather time series in combined sewer systems might contain an important amount of missing data due to several reasons, such as failures related to the operation of the sensor or additional contributions during rainfall events. Therefore, the approach hereby proposed...... solids (TSS) online measurements (year 2007, 2 minutes time-step, combined system, Ecully, Lyon, France). Results show up the potential of the method to fill gaps longer than 0.5 days, especially between 0.5 days and 1 day (mean NSE > 0.6) in the flow rate time series. TSS results still perform very...

Development and Application of Syndromic Surveillance for Severe Weather Events Following Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Stella; Hamby, Teresa; Chu, Alvin; Gleason, Jessie A; Goodrow, Gabrielle M; Gu, Hui; Lifshitz, Edward; Fagliano, Jerald A

2016-06-01

Following Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) developed indicators to enhance syndromic surveillance for extreme weather events in EpiCenter, an online system that collects and analyzes real-time chief complaint emergency department (ED) data and classifies each visit by indicator or syndrome. These severe weather indicators were finalized by using 2 steps: (1) key word inclusion by review of chief complaints from cases where diagnostic codes met selection criteria and (2) key word exclusion by evaluating cases with key words of interest that lacked selected diagnostic codes. Graphs compared 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods of 8 Hurricane Sandy-related severe weather event indicators against the same period in the following year. Spikes in overall ED visits were observed immediately after the hurricane for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, the 3 disrupted outpatient medical care indicators, asthma, and methadone-related substance use. Zip code level scan statistics indicated clusters of CO poisoning and increased medicine refill needs during the 2 weeks after Hurricane Sandy. CO poisoning clusters were identified in areas with power outages of 4 days or longer. This endeavor gave the NJDOH a clearer picture of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and yielded valuable state preparation information to monitor the effects of future severe weather events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:463-471).

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

Science.gov (United States)

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2012-01-01

A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

2012-01-01

The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollander, A.

2014-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

2006-01-01

A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

46 CFR 44.01-13 - Heavy weather plan.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Heavy weather plan. 44.01-13 Section 44.01-13 Shipping... VOYAGES Administration § 44.01-13 Heavy weather plan. (a) Each heavy weather plan under § 44.01-12(b) must... Inspection. Approval of a heavy weather plan is limited to the current hurricane season. (b) The cognizant...

A Analysis of the Development of Weather Concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Mroz, Paul John

Weather information in all forms is poorly understood and often misinterpreted by the general public. Weather literacy is necessary for everyone if critical weather messages, designed to save lives and protect property, are to be effective. The purpose of this study was to seek content and causal evidence for a developmental concept of Weather Information Processing that was consistent with Piagetian Cognitive Stages of Development. Three ordinal Content Stages Of Weather Information Processing (phenomena, process and mechanism) and three ordinal Causal Explanation Stages Of Weather Information Processing (non-real, natural, and scientifically valid abstract ideas) were explored for their relationship with Piaget's Pre-Operational, Concrete and Formal Stages of Development. One hundred and fifty -five elementary and secondary school students from two school districts were administered a written Piagetian exam. Commonly available television weather programs were categorized, randomly assigned and viewed by 42 randomly selected students who were administered three Piagetian tasks. Students were clinically interviewed for the level of content information and causal explanations (reasoning). Results indicated that content information and causal reasoning of students to televised weather information is significantly related (p Cognitive Stages of Development. Two Piagetian logic operations (seriation and correlation) were established as significantly different (p Information Processing and have implications for teaching and presenting weather information to the public.

The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Ashbrook, Peggy

2013-01-01

This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

2015-12-01

National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of a Hybrid Electric Grid Using Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-01

with 214 turbines [22]. In July 2011, the DoD declared that a complete study of 217 wind farm projects proposed in 35 states and Puerto Rico found...14. SUBJECT TERMS Hybrid electric grid , Microgrid , Hybrid renewable energy system , energy management center, optimization, Day...electric grid. In the case of a hybrid electric grid (HEG), or hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) where the microgrid can be connected to the commercial

Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

Spatiotemporal influence of temperature, air quality, and urban environment on cause-specific mortality during hazy days.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Hung Chak; Wong, Man Sing; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Bilal, Muhammad; Chan, Ta-Chien

2018-03-01

Haze is an extreme weather event that can severely increase air pollution exposure, resulting in higher burdens on human health. Few studies have explored the health effects of haze, and none have investigated the spatiotemporal interaction between temperature, air quality and urban environment that may exacerbate the adverse health effects of haze. We investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of haze effects and explored the additional effects of temperature, air pollution and urban environment on the short-term mortality risk during hazy days. We applied a Poisson regression model to daily mortality data from 2007 through 2014, to analyze the short-term mortality risk during haze events in Hong Kong. We evaluated the adverse effect on five types of cause-specific mortality after four types of haze event. We also analyzed the additional effect contributed by the spatial variability of urban environment on each type of cause-specific mortality during a specific haze event. A regular hazy day (lag 0) has higher all-cause mortality risk than a day without haze (odds ratio: 1.029 [1.009, 1.049]). We have also observed high mortality risks associated with mental disorders and diseases of the nervous system during hazy days. In addition, extreme weather and air quality contributed to haze-related mortality, while cold weather and higher ground-level ozone had stronger influences on mortality risk. Areas with a high-density environment, lower vegetation, higher anthropogenic heat, and higher PM 2.5 featured stronger effects of haze on mortality than the others. A combined influence of haze, extreme weather/air quality, and urban environment can result in extremely high mortality due to mental/behavioral disorders or diseases of the nervous system. In conclusion, we developed a data-driven technique to analyze the effects of haze on mortality. Our results target the specific dates and areas with higher mortality during haze events, which can be used for development of

Assessing Upper-Level Winds on Day-of-Launch

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.

2012-01-01

On the day-or-launch. the 45th Weather Squadron Launch Weather Officers (LWOS) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). During launch operations, the payload launch team sometimes asks the LWO if they expect the upper level winds to change during the countdown but the LWOs did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or display the upper-level observations and compare them to the numerical weather prediction model point forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a capability in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that would allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center Doppler Radar Wind Profilers and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station rawinsondes and then overlay model point forecast profiles on the observation profiles to assess the performance of these models and graphically display them to the launch team. The AMU developed an Excel-based capability for the LWOs to assess the model forecast upper-level winds and compare them to observations. They did so by creating a GUI in Excel that allows the LWOs to first initialize the models by comparing the O-hour model forecasts to the observations and then to display model forecasts in 3-hour intervals from the current time through 12 hours.

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Activity assessment first-half 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in the first half of 2006: market conditions, prices and traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2018-02-01

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

Effect of carbonic anhydrase on silicate weathering and carbonate formation at present day CO2 concentrations compared to primordial values

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Leilei; Lian, Bin; Hao, Jianchao; Liu, Congqiang; Wang, Shijie

2015-01-01

It is widely recognized that carbonic anhydrase (CA) participates in silicate weathering and carbonate formation. Nevertheless, it is still not known if the magnitude of the effect produced by CA on surface rock evolution changes or not. In this work, CA gene expression from Bacillus mucilaginosus and the effects of recombination protein on wollastonite dissolution and carbonate formation under different conditions are explored. Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was used to explore the correlation between CA gene expression and sufficiency or deficiency in calcium and CO2 concentration. The results show that the expression of CA genes is negatively correlated with both CO2 concentration and ease of obtaining soluble calcium. A pure form of the protein of interest (CA) is obtained by cloning, heterologous expression, and purification. The results from tests of the recombination protein on wollastonite dissolution and carbonate formation at different levels of CO2 concentration show that the magnitudes of the effects of CA and CO2 concentration are negatively correlated. These results suggest that the effects of microbial CA in relation to silicate weathering and carbonate formation may have increased importance at the modern atmospheric CO2 concentration compared to 3 billion years ago. PMID:25583135

Designing and Implementing Weather Generators as Web Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rassarin Chinnachodteeranun

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Climate and weather realizations are essential inputs for simulating crop growth and yields to analyze the risks associated with future conditions. To simplify the procedure of generating weather realizations and make them available over the Internet, we implemented novel mechanisms for providing weather generators as web services, as well as a mechanism for sharing identical weather realizations given a climatological information. A web service for preparing long-term climate data was implemented based on an international standard, Sensor Observation Service (SOS. The weather generator services, which are the core components of the framework, analyze climatological data, and can take seasonal climate forecasts as inputs for generating weather realizations. The generated weather realizations are encoded in a standard format, which are ready for use to crop modeling. All outputs are generated in SOS standard, which broadens the extent of data sharing and interoperability with other sectoral applications, e.g., water resources management. These services facilitate the development of other applications requiring input weather realizations, as these can be obtained easily by just calling the service. The workload of analysts related to data preparation and handling of legacy weather generator programs can be reduced. The architectural design and implementation presented here can be used as a prototype for constructing further services on top of an interoperable sensor network system.

NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

Longing for Clouds - Does Beautiful Weather have to be Fine?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mădălina Diaconu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Any attempt to outline a meteorological aesthetics centered on so-called beautiful weather has to overcome several difficulties: In everyday life, the appreciation of the weather is mostly related to practical interests or reduced to the ideal of stereotypical fine weather that is conceived according to blue-sky thinking irrespective of climate diversity. Also, an aesthetics of fine weather seems, strictly speaking, to be impossible given that such weather conditions usually allow humans to focus on aspects other than weather, which contradicts the autotelic character of beauty. The unreflective equation of beautiful weather with moderately sunny weather and a cloudless sky also collides with the psychological need for variation: even living in a “paradisal” climate would be condemned to end in monotony. Finally, whereas fine weather is related in modern realistic literature to cosmic harmony and a universal natural order, contemporary literary examples show that in the age of the climate change, fine weather may be deceitful and its passive contemplation, irresponsible. This implies the necessity of a reflective aesthetic attitude on weather, as influenced by art, literature, and science, which discovers the poetics of bad weather and the wonder that underlies average weather conditions.

SPace weather applications in a technology-dependent society

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

Space weather can adversely key technology assets, such as, high-voltage electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communications systems that are critical to national security and economy. However, the term of "space weather" is not well known in our society. This presentation will introduce key concepts related to the space weather problem and show how space weather impacts our everyday life. The goal is to promote awareness among the general public. Also, this presentation will highlight how space weather is being used to promote STEM education for community college students through the NASA internship program.

World War II Weather Record Transmittances

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

Science.gov (United States)

Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

2014-01-01

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

Relationships between CO2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

2018-03-01

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO2) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. We test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profiles under open- and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO2 (y = kxn) where n is dependent on reaction stoichiometry and k is dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO2. To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence

Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Mathew

2013-01-01

The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

The Weather and Ménière’s Disease: A Longitudinal Analysis in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Wiebke; Sarran, Christophe; Ronan, Natalie; Barrett, George; Whinney, David J.; Fleming, Lora E.; Osborne, Nicholas J.; Tyrrell, Jessica

2016-01-01

Hypothesis Changes in the weather influence symptom severity in Ménière’s disease (MD). Background MD is an unpredictable condition that significantly impacts on quality of life. It is suggested that fluctuations in the weather, especially atmospheric pressure may influence the symptoms of MD. However, to date, limited research has investigated the impact of the weather on MD. Methods In a longitudinal study, a mobile phone application collected data from 397 individuals (277 females and 120 males with an average age of 50 yr) from the UK reporting consultant-diagnosed MD. Daily symptoms (vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus, hearing loss, and attack prevalence) and GPS locations were collected; these data were linked with Met Office weather data (including atmospheric pressure, humidity, temperature, visibility, and wind speed). Results Symptom severity and attack prevalence were reduced on days when atmospheric pressure was higher. When atmospheric pressure was below 1,013 hectopascals, the risk of an attack was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.54); when the humidity was above 90%, the risk of an attack was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.49). Conclusion This study provides the strongest evidence to date that changes in atmospheric pressure and humidity are associated with symptom exacerbation in MD. Improving our understanding of the role of weather and other environmental triggers in Ménière’s may reduce the uncertainty associated with living with this condition, significantly contributing to improved quality of life. PMID:27861300

History of surface weather observations in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Fiebrich, Christopher A.

2009-04-01

In this paper, the history of surface weather observations in the United States is reviewed. Local weather observations were first documented in the 17th Century along the East Coast. For many years, the progression of a weather observation from an initial reading to dissemination remained a slow and laborious process. The number of observers remained small and unorganized until agencies including the Surgeon General, Army, and General Land Office began to request regular observations at satellite locations in the 1800s. The Smithsonian was responsible for first organizing a large "network" of volunteer weather observers across the nation. These observers became the foundation for today's Cooperative Observer network. As applications of weather data continued to grow and users required the data with an ever-decreasing latency, automated weather networks saw rapid growth in the later part of the 20th century. Today, the number of weather observations across the U.S. totals in the tens of thousands due largely to privately-owned weather networks and amateur weather observers who submit observations over the internet.

For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Judt, Falko

2017-04-01

A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

2013-05-01

Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

2018-01-01

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Ground and surface water developmental toxicity at a municipal landfill--Description and weather-related variation

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, M.A.; Rao, M.; Dumont, J.N.; Hull, M.; Jones, T.; Bantle, J.A.

1998-01-01

Contaminated groundwater poses a significant health hazard and may also impact wildlife such as amphibians when it surfaces. Using FETAX (Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus), the developmental toxicity of ground and surface water samples near a closed municipal landfill at Norman, OK, were evaluated. The groundwater samples were taken from a network of wells in a shallow, unconfined aquifer downgradient from the landfill. Surface water samples were obtained from a pond and small stream adjacent to the landfill. Surface water samples from a reference site in similar habitat were also analyzed. Groundwater samples were highly toxic in the area near the landfill, indicating a plume of toxicants. Surface water samples from the landfill site demonstrated elevated developmental toxicity. This toxicity was temporally variable and was significantly correlated with weather conditions during the 3 days prior to sampling. Mortality was negatively correlated with cumulative rain and relative humidity. Mortality was positively correlated with solar radiation and net radiation. No significant correlations were observed between mortality and weather parameters for days 4–7 preceding sampling.

Rock weathering by indigenous heterotrophic bacteria of Bacillus spp. at different temperature: a laboratory experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Štyriaková, I.; Štyriak, I.; Oberhänsli, H.

2012-07-01

The bio-weathering of basalt, granite and gneiss was experimentally investigated in this study. These rock-forming minerals weathered more rapidly via the ubiquitous psychrotrophic heterotrophic bacteria . With indigenous bacteria of Bacillus spp. from sediments of Lake Baikal, we traced the degradation process of silicate minerals to understand the weathering processes occurring at the change temperature in the subsurface environment with organic input. The bacteria mediated dissolution of minerals was monitored with solution and solid chemistry, X-ray analyses as well as microscopic techniques. We determined the impact of the bacteria on the mineral surface and leaching of K, Ca, Mg, Si, Fe, and Al from silicate minerals. In the samples the release of major structural elements of silicates was used as an overall indicator of silicate mineral degradation at 4°C and 18°C from five medium exchanges over 255 days of rock bioleaching. The increase of temperature importantly affected the efficiency of Fe extraction from granite and basalt as well as Si extraction from granite and gneiss. In comparison with elemental extraction order at 4°C, Ca was substituted first by Fe or Si. It is evident that temperature influences rock microbial weathering and results in a change of elements extraction.

Effects of shelter type, early environmental enrichment and weather conditions on free-range behaviour of slow-growing broiler chickens.

Science.gov (United States)

Stadig, L M; Rodenburg, T B; Ampe, B; Reubens, B; Tuyttens, F A M

2017-06-01

Free-range use by broiler chickens is often limited, whereas better use of the free-range area could benefit animal welfare. Use of free-range areas could be stimulated by more appropriate shelter or environmental enrichment (by decreasing birds' fearfulness). This study aimed to assess the effects of shelter type, early environmental enrichment and weather conditions on free-range use. Three production rounds with 440 slow-growing broiler chickens (Sasso T451) were carried out. Birds were housed indoors in four groups (two with males, two with females) from days 0 to 25, during which two of the groups received environmental enrichment. At day 23 birds' fearfulness was assessed with a tonic immobility (TI) test (n=100). At day 25 all birds were moved (in mixed-sex groups) to mobile houses, and provided with free-range access from day 28 onwards. Each group could access a range consisting for 50% of grassland with 21 artificial shelters (ASs, wooden A-frames) and for 50% of short rotation coppice (SRC) with willow (dense vegetation). Free-range use was recorded by live observations at 0900, 1300 and 1700 h for 15 to 21 days between days 28 and 63. For each bird observed outside the shelter type (AS or SRC), distance from the house (0 to 2, 2 to 5, >5 m) and its behaviour (only rounds 2 and 3) were recorded. Weather conditions were recorded by four weather stations. On average, 27.1% of the birds were observed outside at any given moment of observation. Early environmental enrichment did not decrease fearfulness as measured by the TI test. It only had a minor effect on the percentage of birds outside (0.4% more birds outside). At all distances from the house, SRC was preferred over AS. In AS, areas closer to the house were preferred over farther ones, in SRC this was less pronounced. Free-range use increased with age and temperature and decreased with wind speed. In AS, rainfall and decreasing solar radiation were related to finding more birds outside, whereas the

Measuring weather for aviation safety in the 1980's

Science.gov (United States)

Wedan, R. W.

1980-01-01

Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Lundstedt, H.

The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

Weather during bloom affects pollination and yield of highbush blueberry.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuell, Julianna K; Isaacs, Rufus

2010-06-01

Weather plays an important role in spring-blooming fruit crops due to the combined effects on bee activity, flower opening, pollen germination, and fertilization. To determine the effects of weather on highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., productivity, we monitored bee activity and compared fruit set, weight, and seed number in a field stocked with honey bees, Apis mellifera L., and common eastern bumble bees, Bombus impatiens (Cresson). Flowers were subjected to one of five treatments during bloom: enclosed, open, open during poor weather only, open during good weather only, or open during poor and good weather. Fewer bees of all types were observed foraging and fewer pollen foragers returned to colonies during poor weather than during good weather. There were also changes in foraging community composition: honey bees dominated during good weather, whereas bumble bees dominated during poor weather. Berries from flowers exposed only during poor weather had higher fruit set in 1 yr and higher berry weight in the other year compared with enclosed clusters. In both years, clusters exposed only during good weather had > 5 times as many mature seeds, weighed twice as much, and had double the fruit set of those not exposed. No significant increase over flowers exposed during good weather was observed when clusters were exposed during good and poor weather. Our results are discussed in terms of the role of weather during bloom on the contribution of bees adapted to foraging during cool conditions.

Space Weather Laboratory

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Cautley, Dan [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Francisco, Paul [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Hawkins, Beth A [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brennan, Terry M [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

Absolutely Fabulous!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjorth, Daniel

2013-01-01

Purpose – This paper seeks to apply a processual thinking of subjectivity in the study of “becoming entrepreneur”. Design/methodology/approach – Through analysing Foucault's idea of subjectification, by the help of Deleuze's comments and elaborations, the paper seeks to clarify one opacity in ent...

Quantifying chemical weathering rates along a precipitation gradient on Basse-Terre Island, French Guadeloupe: new insight from U-series isotopes in weathering rinds

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Jacqueline M.; May, Linda; Sak, Peter B.; Gaillardet, Jerome; Ren, Minghua; Engle, Mark A.; Brantley, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Inside soil and saprolite, rock fragments can form weathering clasts (alteration rinds surrounding an unweathered core) and these weathering rinds provide an excellent field system for investigating the initiation of weathering and long term weathering rates. Recently, uranium-series (U-series) disequilibria have shown great potential for determining rind formation rates and quantifying factors controlling weathering advance rates in weathering rinds. To further investigate whether the U-series isotope technique can document differences in long term weathering rates as a function of precipitation, we conducted a new weathering rind study on tropical volcanic Basse-Terre Island in the Lesser Antilles Archipelago. In this study, for the first time we characterized weathering reactions and quantified weathering advance rates in multiple weathering rinds across a steep precipitation gradient. Electron microprobe (EMP) point measurements, bulk major element contents, and U-series isotope compositions were determined in two weathering clasts from the Deshaies watershed with mean annual precipitation (MAP) = 1800 mm and temperature (MAT) = 23 °C. On these clasts, five core-rind transects were measured for locations with different curvature (high, medium, and low) of the rind-core boundary. Results reveal that during rind formation the fraction of elemental loss decreases in the order: Ca ≈ Na > K ≈ Mg > Si ≈ Al > Zr ≈ Ti ≈ Fe. Such observations are consistent with the sequence of reactions after the initiation of weathering: specifically, glass matrix and primary minerals (plagioclase, pyroxene) weather to produce Fe oxyhydroxides, gibbsite and minor kaolinite.Uranium shows addition profiles in the rind due to the infiltration of U-containing soil pore water into the rind as dissolved U phases. U is then incorporated into the rind as Fe-Al oxides precipitate. Such processes lead to significant U-series isotope disequilibria in the rinds

Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacheco, F.A.L.; van der Weijden, C.H.

2014-01-01

Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and

[PM2.5 pollution and aerosol optical properties in fog and haze days during autumn and winter in Beijing area].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiu-Juan; Pu, Wei-Wei; Meng, Wei; Ma, Zhi-Qiang; Dong, Fan; He, Di

2013-02-01

A study on the PM2.5 pollution and aerosol optical properties in haze-fog days was carried out from Sep. 1st to Dec. 7th, 2011 in Beijing area by using PM2.5 concentration, aerosol scattering coefficient (sigma sca) and absorption coefficient (sigma abs) measured under urban and rural environment. The effect of weather condition on the PM25 pollution and aerosol optical properties was discussed as well. The results showed that the PM2.5 concentration, sigma sca and sigma abs, were evidently higher in haze-fog days than those in non-haze-fog days. The average PM2.5 concentrations in haze-fog days with values of 97.6 microg m-3 and 64.4 microg.m-3 were as 3.3 and 4.8 times as those in non-haze-fog days at urban and rural stations, respectively. The higher PM2.5 concentration in urban area resulted in the more frequent fog and haze phenomena than that in rural area. The PM25 concentration, sigma sca, and sigma abs were significantly higher in urban area than that in rural area in mist days, while relatively close in mist-haze days. This difference suggested that the effect of regional transport of pollution was relatively evident in mist-haze days but weak in mist day. In fog days the sigma sca showed no evident difference between urban and rural area, and was the highest in all types of fog and haze weather. The scattering property of aerosol was the strongest in fog days. The different weather conditions resulted in various characteristics of spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration, sigma sca and sigma abs, as well as the strength of PM2,5 pollution and aerosol extinction. The pollutants transported by the strong southwest wind above the boundary layer and subsided in the boundary layer companying with the local accumulation of pollutants due to the weak diffusion resulted in the most serious haze-fog episode with the strongest PM2.5 pollution and aerosol extinction.

A teaching-learning sequence about weather map reading

Science.gov (United States)

Mandrikas, Achilleas; Stavrou, Dimitrios; Skordoulis, Constantine

2017-07-01

In this paper a teaching-learning sequence (TLS) introducing pre-service elementary teachers (PET) to weather map reading, with emphasis on wind assignment, is presented. The TLS includes activities about recognition of wind symbols, assignment of wind direction and wind speed on a weather map and identification of wind characteristics in a weather forecast. Sixty PET capabilities and difficulties in understanding weather maps were investigated, using inquiry-based learning activities. The results show that most PET became more capable of reading weather maps and assigning wind direction and speed on them. Our results also show that PET could be guided to understand meteorology concepts useful in everyday life and in teaching their future students.

Weather, transport mode choices and emotional travel experiences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Böcker, L.; Dijst, M.J.; Faber, J.

2016-01-01

With climate change high on the political agenda, weather has emerged as an important issue in travel behavioral research and urban planning. While various studies demonstrate profound effects of weather on travel behaviors, limited attention has been paid to subjective weather experiences and the

Weatherization Works II - Summary of Findings from the ARRA Period Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carroll, David [APPRISE, Inc.. Princeton, NJ (United States); Rose, Erin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pigg, Scott [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Dalhoff, Greg [Dalhoff & Associates. Verona, WI (United STates); Blasnik, Michael [Blasnik & Associates, Boston, MA (United States); Eisenberg, Joel Fred [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cowan, Claire [Energy Center of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Conlon, Brian [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2015-10-01

This report presents a summary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Program. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2010. The ARRA evaluation produced fourteen separate reports, including this summary. Three separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmental emissions benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program. Special studies were conducted to: estimate the impacts of weatherization and healthy homes interventions on asthma-related Medicaid claims in a small cohort in Washington State; assess how weatherization recipients communicate their weatherization experiences to those in their social network, and assess processes implemented to defer homes for weatherization. Small studies addressed energy use in refrigerators, WAP as implemented in the U.S. territories for the first time, and weatherization s impacts on air conditioning energy savings. The national occupant survey was mined for additional insights on the impacts of weatherization on household budgets and energy behaviors post-weatherization. Lastly, the results of a survey of weatherization training centers are summarized.

Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. D.

2014-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

Weather In Some Islands

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

王良华

2007-01-01

There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

LOCAL WEATHER CLASSIFICATIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna PIOTROWICZ

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Two approaches of local weather type definitions are presented and illustrated for selected stations of Poland and Hungary. The subjective classification, continuing long traditions, especially in Poland, relies on diurnal values of local weather elements. The main types are defined according to temperature with some sub-types considering relative sunshine duration, diurnal precipitation totals, relative humidity and wind speed. The classification does not make a difference between the seasons of the year, but the occurrence of the classes obviously reflects the annual cycle. Another important feature of this classification is that only a minor part of the theoretically possible combination of the various types and sub-types occurs in all stations of both countries. The objective version of the classification starts from ten possible weather element which are reduced to four according to factor analysis, based on strong correlation between the elements. This analysis yields 3 to 4 factors depending on the specific criteria of selection. The further cluster analysis uses four selected weather elements belonging to different rotated factors. They are the diurnal mean values of temperature, of relative humidity, of cloudiness and of wind speed. From the possible ways of hierarchical cluster analysis (i.e. no a priori assumption on the number of classes, the method of furthest neighbours is selected, indicating the arguments of this decision in the paper. These local weather types are important tools in understanding the role of weather in various environmental indicators, in climatic generalisation of short samples by stratified sampling and in interpretation of the climate change.

Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-02-24

Feb 24, 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

Space weather and coronal mass ejections

CERN Document Server

Howard, Tim

2013-01-01

Space weather has attracted a lot of attention in recent times. Severe space weather can disrupt spacecraft, and on Earth can be the cause of power outages and power station failure. It also presents a radiation hazard for airline passengers and astronauts. These ""magnetic storms"" are most commonly caused by coronal mass ejections, or CMES, which are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can reach speeds of several thousand km/s. In this SpringerBrief, Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections, author Timothy Howard briefly introduces the coronal mass ejection, its sc

Iron isotopic fractionation during continental weathering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fantle, Matthew S.; DePaolo, Donald J.

2003-10-01

The biological activity on continents and the oxygen content of the atmosphere determine the chemical pathways through which Fe is processed at the Earth's surface. Experiments have shown that the relevant chemical pathways fractionate Fe isotopes. Measurements of soils, streams, and deep-sea clay indicate that the {sup 56}Fe/{sup 54}Fe ratio ({delta}{sup 56}Fe relative to igneous rocks) varies from +1{per_thousand} for weathering residues like soils and clays, to -3{per_thousand} for dissolved Fe in streams. These measurements confirm that weathering processes produce substantial fractionation of Fe isotopes in the modern oxidizing Earth surface environment. The results imply that biologically-mediated processes, which preferentially mobilize light Fe isotopes, are critical to Fe chemistry in weathering environments, and that the {delta}{sup 56}Fe of marine dissolved Fe should be variable and negative. Diagenetic reduction of Fe in marine sediments may also be a significant component of the global Fe isotope cycle. Iron isotopes provide a tracer for the influence of biological activity and oxygen in weathering processes through Earth history. Iron isotopic fractionation during weathering may have been smaller or absent in an oxygen-poor environment such as that of the early Precambrian Earth.

Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

1998-11-01

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND TRENDS OF DRY DAYS IN SYLHET REGION OF BANGLADESH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Mustakim Ali Shah

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The rainfall distribution in Bangladesh is not uniform and refl ecting topography. Hilly Sylhet region receives substantial rainfall every year compare to other regions of Bangladesh. Though Sylhet region is less vulnerable to drought but weather pattern is not constant and changing day by day. Hence as a part of drought an alysis, behavior of dry days is important. This study focuses on dry days pattern and associ ated changes from daily records of last 54 years for Sylhet region. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variations of dry days were analyzed to check for major changes. In order to inve stigate extreme dry events, time history of monthly dry days data were transformed into fre quency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. Variability of dry days in tim e scale was also checked from filtered signals which is very useful for drought a nalysis, agricultural development and disaster management for the north-east region of Bangladesh.

Weathering of the New Albany Shale, Kentucky, USA: I. Weathering zones defined by mineralogy and major-element composition

Science.gov (United States)

Tuttle, M.L.W.; Breit, G.N.

2009-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of chemical and mineralogical changes induced by weathering is valuable information when considering the supply of nutrients and toxic elements from rocks. Here minerals that release and fix major elements during progressive weathering of a bed of Devonian New Albany Shale in eastern Kentucky are documented. Samples were collected from unweathered core (parent shale) and across an outcrop excavated into a hillside 40 year prior to sampling. Quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogical data record progressive shale alteration across the outcrop. Mineral compositional changes reflect subtle alteration processes such as incongruent dissolution and cation exchange. Altered primary minerals include K-feldspars, plagioclase, calcite, pyrite, and chlorite. Secondary minerals include jarosite, gypsum, goethite, amorphous Fe(III) oxides and Fe(II)-Al sulfate salt (efflorescence). The mineralogy in weathered shale defines four weathered intervals on the outcrop-Zones A-C and soil. Alteration of the weakly weathered shale (Zone A) is attributed to the 40-a exposure of the shale. In this zone, pyrite oxidization produces acid that dissolves calcite and attacks chlorite, forming gypsum, jarosite, and minor efflorescent salt. The pre-excavation, active weathering front (Zone B) is where complete pyrite oxidation and alteration of feldspar and organic matter result in increased permeability. Acidic weathering solutions seep through the permeable shale and evaporate on the surface forming abundant efflorescent salt, jarosite and minor goethite. Intensely weathered shale (Zone C) is depleted in feldspars, chlorite, gypsum, jarosite and efflorescent salts, but has retained much of its primary quartz, illite and illite-smectite. Goethite and amorphous FE(III) oxides increase due to hydrolysis of jarosite. Enhanced permeability in this zone is due to a 14% loss of the original mass in parent shale. Denudation rates suggest that characteristics of Zone C

Weather conditions influencing phosphorus concentration in the growing period in the large shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Tammeorg

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of water temperature (T, water level (L, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, and wind speed (V on the total phosphorus concentration (TP in shallow eutrophic lake Peipsi, the fourth largest lake in Europe, was studied. We used a long-term dataset (1985-2010 of TP concentrations and weather factors. A Thin Plate Spline (TPS model was used to predict TP by year, by day of the year, and by geographical coordinates. Deviations between observed and predicted TP values (residuals, or TP anomalies were related to the weather variables to clarify how the weather anomalies in a year might correlate with the observed fluctuations in TP dynamics. Notable seasonal variations in TP, typical for many shallow lake systems, were found: TP was two to three times higher during late summer-early autumn than during winter. Patterns of TP variability were well predicted by using geographical coordinates, year and day of the year (R2=0.69; P<0.0001. However, TP anomalies were ascribed to the effects of T, L, PAR, and V, which were proved to play a significant additional role in TP dynamics. Moreover, L had consistently negative effects over the year, whereas the effects of T and PAR on TP change were seen to be dependent on the season. TP anomalies in lake Peipsi were most sensitive to wind anomalies. V was associated with frequent switches between increasing and decreasing TP values, though it appeared mainly as a negative driver of TP anomalies in the season prior to the 180th day, and as a positive driver in the subsequent season.

Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

24 févr. 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

Science.gov (United States)

Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

2008-06-01

The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2014-05-01

In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

A la recherche de la "Particule de Dieu"

CERN Multimedia

Pfyffer, Julien

2008-01-01

It's the most fabulous challenge. Looking for a particle that would explain the world: the Higgs boson. 100 meter under the Voltaire's castle, the european community built a fabulous laboratory. A ring containing a tube where the protons are subjected to an acceleration of 300 000km per second. They collide and release particles. (2 pages + photos)

Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2018-01-01

Precipitation constitutes a major contribution to the flow in urban storm- and wastewater systems. Forecasts of the anticipated runoff flows, created from radar extrapolation and/or numerical weather predictions, can potentially be used to optimize operation in both wet and dry weather periods. However, flow forecasts are inevitably uncertain and their use will ultimately require a trade-off between the value of knowing what will happen in the future and the probability and consequence of being wrong. In this study we examine how ensemble forecasts from the HIRLAM-DMI-S05 numerical weather prediction (NWP) model subject to three different ensemble post-processing approaches can be used to forecast flow exceedance in a combined sewer for a wide range of ratios between the probability of detection (POD) and the probability of false detection (POFD). We use a hydrological rainfall-runoff model to transform the forecasted rainfall into forecasted flow series and evaluate three different approaches to establishing the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram of the forecast, which is a plot of POD against POFD for each fraction of concordant ensemble members and can be used to select the weight of evidence that matches the desired trade-off between POD and POFD. In the first approach, the rainfall input to the model is calculated for each of 25 ensemble members as a weighted average of rainfall from the NWP cells over the catchment where the weights are proportional to the areal intersection between the catchment and the NWP cells. In the second approach, a total of 2825 flow ensembles are generated using rainfall input from the neighbouring NWP cells up to approximately 6 cells in all directions from the catchment. In the third approach, the first approach is extended spatially by successively increasing the area covered and for each spatial increase and each time step selecting only the cell with the highest intensity resulting in a total of 175 ensemble

46 CFR 174.215 - Drainage of weather deck.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Drainage of weather deck. 174.215 Section 174.215 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES... weather deck. The weather deck must have open rails to allow rapid clearing of water, or must have freeing...

46 CFR 173.062 - Drainage of weather deck.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Drainage of weather deck. 173.062 Section 173.062 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO VESSEL USE School Ships § 173.062 Drainage of weather deck. The weather deck of each sailing...

Space Weather Products

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

Artificial weathering of oils by rotary evaporator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fieldhouse, B.; Hollebone, B.P.; Singh, N.R.; Tong, T.S.; Mullin, J.

2009-01-01

Oil weathering has a considerable affect on the behaviour, impact and ultimate fate of an oil spill. As such, efforts have been made to study weathering as a whole using bench-scale procedures. The studies are generally divided into individual processes where the effect of other major processes are introduce as an amended sample input rather than a concurrent process. The weathering process that has the greatest effect immediately following an oil spill is evaporation, particularly for lighter oils. The rotary evaporator apparatus offers a convenient means of producing artificially weathered oil for laboratory studies. This paper reported on a study that examined the representativeness of samples obtained by this method compared to pan evaporation and the impact of changes to the apparatus or method parameters on sample chemistry. Experiments were performed on Alberta Sweet Mixed Blend no. 5 in a rotary evaporator under varying conditions of temperature and air flow at ambient pressure using 2 apparatus. The rate of mass loss increased with temperature and air flow rate as expected, but the quantitative relationships could not be defined from the data due to contributions by other uncontrolled factors. It was concluded that the rotary evaporator is not suited for evaporation rate studies, but rather for producing samples suitable for use in other studies. Chemical analysis showed that the relative abundance distributions of target n-alkane hydrocarbons varied with the degree of weathering of an oil in a consistent manner at ambient pressure, regardless of the temperature, rate of air exchange or other factors related to the apparatus and procedure. The composition of the artificially weathered oil was also consistent with that from an open pan simulation of a weathered oil slick. Loss of water content varied with the conditions of evaporation because of the differential rates of evaporation due to relative humidity considerations. It was concluded that weathering

NATO Advanced Research Workshop on The Chemistry of Weathering

CERN Document Server

1985-01-01

Several important developments in our understanding of the chemistry of weathering have occurred in the last few years: 1. There has been a major breakthrough in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling the kinetics of sil icate dissolution, and there have been major advances in computer modeling of weathering processes. 2. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of organic solutes in the weathering process, and hence of the inter-relationships between mineral weathering and the terrestrial ecosystem. 3. The impact of acid deposition ("acid rain") has been widely recognized. The processes by which acid deposition is neutral ized are closely related to the processes of normal chemical weathering; an understanding of the chemistry of weathering is thus essential for predicting the effects of acid deposition. 4. More high-qual ity data have become available on the chemical dynamics of smal I watersheds and large river systems, which represent the integrated effects of chemical weathering.

Effect of the weather in the aging of asphalts by XRD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardoso, Edson da R.; Braz, Delson; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Motta, Laura M.G. da; Barroso, Regina C.

2009-01-01

Asphalt is a sticky, black and highly viscous liquid or semi-solid that is presented in most crude petroleum and in some natural deposits. As is well known, asphalt has been the preferential choice in pavement construction since excellent utility of pavement, however, as other organic substances, it is also subjected to aging phenomena evolving with time. Asphalt aging is one of the principal factors causing deterioration of asphalt pavements. The photodegradation of asphalts must be considered in the study of the performance of asphalt pavement, especially in geographical regions where high solar radiation intensity occurs. It has an important influence in asphalt aging in tropical places as Brazil. Many methods have been applied to simulate aging of bitumen. It was just a simulation but not real aging asphalt. In this study we submitted the asphalt to the weather as sun and rain. Periodically, during 430 days, the XRD profiles were done and the results analyzed. The scattering measurements were carried out in 0-20 reflection geometry using a powder diffractometer Shimadzu XRD-6000. Scans were typically done from 8 deg to 28 deg every 0.05 deg. The parameters FWHM and peak centroid were analyzed. From 0 until 180 days the aging was faster. The peaks were marked and analyzed with the pass of time. The crystallinity of asphalt increase with weather exposition. Some angles of profiles changed the position indicating change of atomics plans. (author)

Effect of the weather in the aging of asphalts by XRD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Edson da R.; Braz, Delson; Lopes, Ricardo T., E-mail: ecardoso@lin.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Motta, Laura M.G. da, E-mail: Laura@coc.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Construcao Civil/Geotecnia; Barroso, Regina C., E-mail: cely@uerj.b [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica

2009-07-01

Asphalt is a sticky, black and highly viscous liquid or semi-solid that is presented in most crude petroleum and in some natural deposits. As is well known, asphalt has been the preferential choice in pavement construction since excellent utility of pavement, however, as other organic substances, it is also subjected to aging phenomena evolving with time. Asphalt aging is one of the principal factors causing deterioration of asphalt pavements. The photodegradation of asphalts must be considered in the study of the performance of asphalt pavement, especially in geographical regions where high solar radiation intensity occurs. It has an important influence in asphalt aging in tropical places as Brazil. Many methods have been applied to simulate aging of bitumen. It was just a simulation but not real aging asphalt. In this study we submitted the asphalt to the weather as sun and rain. Periodically, during 430 days, the XRD profiles were done and the results analyzed. The scattering measurements were carried out in 0-20 reflection geometry using a powder diffractometer Shimadzu XRD-6000. Scans were typically done from 8 deg to 28 deg every 0.05 deg. The parameters FWHM and peak centroid were analyzed. From 0 until 180 days the aging was faster. The peaks were marked and analyzed with the pass of time. The crystallinity of asphalt increase with weather exposition. Some angles of profiles changed the position indicating change of atomics plans. (author)

Past and Present Weathering Recorded in Cretaceous Shale Samples from Colombia - Implications for Paleoenvironmental Reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, C.; März, C.; Wagner, T.

2016-12-01

It is well known that for geochemical studies on ancient rocks, outcrop samples can be compromised by present-day weathering. This raises the fundamental question, if only outcrop samples are available, how reliable can paleoenvironmental reconstructions be? To answer this question, shale samples have been gathered from Cretaceous outcrops of the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia, and analysed by XRF and Fe speciation in order to investigate paleo-redox conditions in this margin basin of the Proto-Atlantic. The samples are consistently depleted (relative to average shale) in redox-related trace metals and in total Fe indicating oxic conditions, whereas Fe speciation (highly reactive over total Fe) indicates anoxic conditions. We ask if this depletion in trace metals and total Fe is due to a lack of primary supply from the depositional environment, or if is it caused by modern oxidative outcrop weathering in this tropical mountainous setting? Our results from artificial weathering experiments confirm that certain trace metals U, Zn and Mo are easily leached from the samples, whereas Fe is quantitatively retained in the samples due to conversion of pyrite and siderite to Fe oxides. Pristine samples from wells in the adjacent Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMV) also exhibit total Fe depletion, but are up to 2000-fold enriched in Mo. This combined evidence indicates that the depletion of trace metals may be due to contemporary weathering, but there has to be a paleoenvironmental reason behind the low total Fe signature. The Guiana Shield was the probable source of sediment to the Cretaceous basin. The Chemical Index of Alteration suggest the source of detrital material was initially highly weathered (average 83, maximum 95). Ancient laterites have been identified on the Guiana Shield, and retention of Fe in these laterites may explain the low Fe input into the Eastern Cordillera basin. These results confirm that trace metal-based redox proxies may be seriously affected by

Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

OpenAIRE

Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

2014-01-01

Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

Connected Vehicle-Enabled Weather Responsive Traffic Management

Science.gov (United States)

2018-04-01

Weather Responsive Traffic Management (WRTM) is an initiative under the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program that supports traffic management agencies and professionals in implementing effective advisory, control, a...

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Considerations in the weathering of wood-plastic composites

Science.gov (United States)

Nicole M. Stark

2007-01-01

During weathering, wood-plastic composites (WPCs) can fade and lose stiffness and strength. Weathering variables that induce these changes include exposure to UV light and water. Each variable degrades WPCs independently, but can also act synergistically. Recent efforts have highlighted the need to understand how WPCs weather, and to develop schemes for protection. The...

Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

Science.gov (United States)

Koskinen, H. E. J.

Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-25

Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

On-line data acquisition system for Aanderaa weather station

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

AshokKumar, K.; Diwan, S.G.

Aanderaa Weather Station can be installed at unattended remote places for collection of various weather parameters at regular preselected intervals. The weather parameters are recorded on the magnetic spool inside a battery operated datalogger which...

Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

2014-05-01

The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness

Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

Availability of high quality weather data measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elsa; Johansen, Jakob Berg; Furbo, Simon

In the period 2016-2017 the project “Availability of high quality weather data measurements” is carried out at Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark. The aim of the project is to establish measured high quality weather data which will be easily available...... for the building energy branch and the solar energy branch in their efforts to achieve energy savings and for researchers and students carrying out projects where measured high quality weather data are needed....

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

Science.gov (United States)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

The Early Years: About the Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Ashbrook, Peggy

2015-01-01

Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

The role of soil weathering and hydrology in regulating chemical fluxes from catchments (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Maher, K.; Chamberlain, C. P.

2010-12-01

Catchment-scale chemical fluxes have been linked to a number of different parameters that describe the conditions at the Earth’s surface, including runoff, temperature, rock type, vegetation, and the rate of tectonic uplift. However, many of the relationships relating chemical denudation to surface processes and conditions, while based on established theoretical principles, are largely empirical and derived solely from modern observations. Thus, an enhanced mechanistic basis for linking global solute fluxes to both surface processes and climate may improve our confidence in extrapolating modern solute fluxes to past and future conditions. One approach is to link observations from detailed soil-based studies with catchment-scale properties. For example, a number of recent studies of chemical weathering at the soil-profile scale have reinforced the importance of hydrologic processes in controlling chemical weathering rates. An analysis of data from granitic soils shows that weathering rates decrease with increasing fluid residence times and decreasing flow rates—over moderate fluid residence times, from 5 days to 10 years, transport-controlled weathering explains the orders of magnitude variation in weathering rates to a better extent than soil age. However, the importance of transport-controlled weathering is difficult to discern at the catchment scale because of the range of flow rates and fluid residence times captured by a single discharge or solute flux measurement. To assess the importance of transport-controlled weathering on catchment scale chemical fluxes, we present a model that links the chemical flux to the extent of reaction between the soil waters and the solids, or the fluid residence time. Different approaches for describing the distribution of fluid residence times within a catchment are then compared with the observed Si fluxes for a limited number of catchments. This model predicts high solute fluxes in regions with high run-off, relief, and

Looking toward to the next-generation space weather forecast system. Comments former a former space weather forecaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomita, Fumihiko

1999-01-01

In the 21st century, man's space-based activities will increase significantly and many kinds of space utilization technologies will assume a vital role in the infrastructure, creating new businesses, securing the global environment, contributing much to human welfare in the world. Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been contributing to the safety of human activity in space and to the further understanding of the solar terrestrial environment through the study of space weather, including the upper atmosphere, magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and the sun. The next-generation Space Weather Integrated Monitoring System (SWIMS) for future space activities based on the present international space weather forecasting system is introduced in this paper. (author)

Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Planchon

2009-07-01

Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

Daily Weather Maps

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

Science.gov (United States)

weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Integrating K-means Clustering with Kernel Density Estimation for the Development of a Conditional Weather Generation Downscaling Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.; Ho, C.; Chang, L.

2011-12-01

conditional probability density function (PDF) of precipitations approximated by the kernel density estimation are calculated respectively for each weather types. In the synthesis step, 100 patterns of synthesis data are generated. First, the weather type of the n-th day are determined by the results of K-means clustering. The associated transition matrix and PDF of the weather type were also determined for the usage of the next sub-step in the synthesis process. Second, the precipitation condition, dry or wet, can be synthesized basing on the transition matrix. If the synthesized condition is dry, the quantity of precipitation is zero; otherwise, the quantity should be further determined in the third sub-step. Third, the quantity of the synthesized precipitation is assigned as the random variable of the PDF defined above. The synthesis efficiency compares the gap of the monthly mean curves and monthly standard deviation curves between the historical precipitation data and the 100 patterns of synthesis data.

Chemical dispersibility testing of fresh and weathered oils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandvik, P.J.; Daling, P.S.; Aareskjold, K.

1991-05-01

This activity in the DIspersants on Weathered Oils-project (DIWO) is a continuation and an extended study of the dispersibility study described in DIWO report No. 3. The main objective has been to study the chemical dispersibility of fresh and weathered oils produced or transported in Norwegian waters. Other important aims of this study have been: To correlate the effectiveness results obtained by three different laboratory methods; to determine the relationship between the dispersant effectiveness and the change in the oils' physico-chemical properties due to weathering (topping, photo-oxidation and w/o-emulsification). This study has been performed with 8 different oil types and 12 different weathering degrees of each oil type. The work performed clearly demonstrates that the oil type and especially the weathering properties are essential for the performance of dispersants at sea. 41 figs., 5 tabs., 16 refs

Night-time activity forecast by season and weather in a longitudinal design - natural light effects on three years' rest-activity cycles in nursing home residents with dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wahnschaffe, Amely; Nowozin, Claudia; Rath, Andreas; Floessner, Theresa; Appelhoff, Stefan; Münch, Mirjam; Kunz, Dieter

2017-12-01

Backround: Night-time agitation is a frequent symptom of dementia. It often causes nursing home admission and has been linked to circadian rhythm disturbances. A positive influence of light interventions on night-time agitation was shown in several studies. The aim of our study was to investigate whether there is a long-term association between regional weather data (as indicator for daylight availability) and 24-hour variations of motor activity. Motor activity of 20 elderly nursing home residents living with dementia was analyzed using recordings of continuously worn wrist activity monitors over a three-year period. The average recording duration was 479 ± 206 days per participant (mean ± SD). Regional cloud amount and day length data from the local weather station (latitude: 52°56'N) were included in the analysis to investigate their effects on several activity variables. Nocturnal rest, here defined as the five consecutive hours with the least motor activity during 24 hours (L5), was the most predictable activity variable per participant. There was a significant interaction of night-time activity with day length and cloud amount (F 1,1174 = 4.39; p = 0.036). Night-time activity was higher on cloudy short days than on clear short days (p = 0.007), and it was also higher on cloudy short days than on cloudy long days (p = 0.032). The need for sufficient zeitgeber (time cue) strength during winter time, especially when days are short and skies are cloudy, is crucial for elderly people living with dementia. Activity forecast by season and weather might be a valuable approach to anticipate adequately complementary use of electrical light and thereby foster lower night-time activity.

Numerical simulation of rainfall and temperature over Kenya using weather research and forecasting-environmental modelling system (WRF-EMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sagero Obaigwa Philip

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on one of the high resolution models used for weather forecasting at Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD. It reviews the skill and accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - Environmental Modeling System (EMS model, in simulating weather over Kenya. The study period was March to May 2011, during the rainy season over Kenya. The model output was compared with the observed data from 27 synoptic stations spread over the study area, to determine the performance of the model in terms of its skill and accuracy in forecasting. The spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature showed that the WRF model was capable of reproducing the observed general pattern especially for temperature. The model has skill in forecasting both rainfall and temperature over the study area. However, the model may underestimate rainfall of more than 10 mm/day and displace its location and overestimate rainfall of less than 1 mm/day. Therefore, during the period of enhanced rainfall especially in the month of April and part of May the model forecast needs to be complemented by other models or forecasting methods before giving a forecast. There is need to improve its performance over the domain through review of the parameterization of small scale physical processes and more observed data need to be simulated into the model.

Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlzon, Linnéa; Karlsson, Amanda; Falk, Knud

Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator...... in the Arctic only a few studies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding......’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors...

Winter Weather Checklists

Science.gov (United States)

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Winter Weather: Frostbite

Science.gov (United States)

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Tailored high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for energy efficient predictive building control

Science.gov (United States)

Stauch, V. J.; Gwerder, M.; Gyalistras, D.; Oldewurtel, F.; Schubiger, F.; Steiner, P.