Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

Risk Factors for Post-treatment Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Pelle B; Mikkelsen, Kim Lyngby; Lauritzen, Jes B

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Complex regional pain syndrome is a challenging condition that includes a broad spectrum of sensory, autonomic, and motor features predominantly in extremities recovering from a trauma. Few large-scale studies have addressed occurrence of and factors associated with complex regional......, gender, initial diagnosis, treatment, and amount of compensation were extracted. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify variables associated with approval of the claim. For carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) patients, we registered whether symptoms were bilateral or unilateral...... normal neurophysiology. CONCLUSIONS: Female gender, surgical treatment, and treatment to the upper limb were risk factors. Elective surgery accounted for a large number of post-treatment CRPS patients. In CTS patients developing CRPS, normal neurophysiological examination findings were common...

Mannitol as salvage treatment for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tan, E.C.T.H.; Tacken, M.C.; Groenewoud, J.M.M.; Goor, H. van; Frolke, J.P.M.

2010-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I (CRPS I) is a continuation of symptoms and signs due to a pathological exaggerated reaction in an extremity of the human body after an injury or operation. Although the clinical picture of CRPS I in the majority of patients is well known, the

Prediction of extreme floods in the Central Andes by means of Complex Networks

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Boers, Niklas; Bookhagen, Bodo; Barbosa, Henrique; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen; Marengo, Jose

2014-05-01

Based on a non-linear synchronisation measure and complex network theory, we present a novel framework for the prediction of extreme events of spatially embedded, interrelated time series. This method is general in the sense that it can be applied to any type of spatially sampled time series with significant interrelations, ranging from climate observables to biological or stock market data. In this presentation, we apply our method to extreme rainfall in South America and show how this leads to the prediction of more than 60% (90% during El Niño conditions) of extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes of Bolivia and northern Argentina, with only 1% false alarms. From paleoclimatic to decadal time scales, the Central Andes continue to be subject to pronounced changes in climatic conditions. In particular, our and past work shows that frequency as well as magnitudes of extreme rainfall events have increased significantly during past decades, calling for a better understanding of the involved climatic mechanisms. Due to their large spatial extend and occurrence at high elevations, these extreme events often lead to severe floods and landslides with disastrous socioeconomic impacts. They regularly affect tens of thousands of people and produce estimated costs of the order of several hundred million USD. Alongside with the societal value of predicting natural hazards, our study provides insights into the responsible climatic features and suggests interactions between Rossby waves in polar regions and large scale (sub-)tropical moisture transport as a driver of subseasonal variability of the South American monsoon system. Predictable extreme events result from the propagation of extreme rainfall from the region of Buenos Aires towards the Central Andes given characteristic atmospheric conditions. Our results indicate that the role of frontal systems originating from Rossby waves in polar latitudes is much more dominant for controlling extreme rainfall in

Extreme Trust Region Policy Optimization for Active Object Recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Huaping; Wu, Yupei; Sun, Fuchun; Huaping Liu; Yupei Wu; Fuchun Sun; Sun, Fuchun; Liu, Huaping; Wu, Yupei

2018-06-01

In this brief, we develop a deep reinforcement learning method to actively recognize objects by choosing a sequence of actions for an active camera that helps to discriminate between the objects. The method is realized using trust region policy optimization, in which the policy is realized by an extreme learning machine and, therefore, leads to efficient optimization algorithm. The experimental results on the publicly available data set show the advantages of the developed extreme trust region optimization method.

Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

2017-01-01

An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

Study of Environmental Data Complexity using Extreme Learning Machine

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Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The main goals of environmental data science using machine learning algorithm deal, in a broad sense, around the calibration, the prediction and the visualization of hidden relationship between input and output variables. In order to optimize the models and to understand the phenomenon under study, the characterization of the complexity (at different levels) should be taken into account. Therefore, the identification of the linear or non-linear behavior between input and output variables adds valuable information for the knowledge of the phenomenon complexity. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when identifying the complexity (linear/non-linear) of environmental data using machine learning algorithm. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of a self-consistent methodology for the use of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. By applying two ELM models (with linear and non-linear activation functions) and by comparing their efficiency, quantification of the linearity can be evaluated. The considered approach is accompanied by simulated and real high dimensional and multivariate data case studies. In conclusion, the current challenges and future development in complexity quantification using environmental data mining are discussed. References - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

Mirror box therapy added to cognitive behavioural therapy in three chronic complex regional pain syndrome type I patients : a pilot study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tichelaar, Y. I. G. Vladimir; Geertzen, Jan H. B.; Keizer, Doeke; van Wilgen, C. Paul

Complex regional pain syndrome type I is a disorder of the extremities with disability and pain as the most prominent features. This paper describes the results of cognitive behavioural therapy combined with mirror box therapy in three patients with chronic complex regional pain syndrome type I.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

OpenAIRE

Jahn, Malte

2015-01-01

Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2010-05-01

Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

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Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2015-01-01

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

Embedded star formation in the extended narrow line region of Centaurus A: Extreme mixing observed by MUSE

Science.gov (United States)

Santoro, F.; Oonk, J. B. R.; Morganti, R.; Oosterloo, T. A.; Tadhunter, C.

2016-05-01

We present a detailed study of the complex ionization structure in a small (~250 pc) extended narrow line region (ENLR) cloud near Centaurus A using the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer. This cloud is located in the so-called outer filament of ionized gas (about 15 kpc from the nucleus) where jet-induced star formation has been suggested to occur by different studies. We find that, despite the small size, a mixture of ionization mechanisms is operating, resulting in considerable complexity in the spatial ionization structure. The area includes two H II regions where star formation is occurring and another location where star formation must have ceased very recently. Interestingly, the extreme Balmer decrement of one of the star forming regions (Hα/Hβobs ~ 6) indicates that it is still heavily embedded in its natal cocoon of gas and dust. At all three locations a continuum counterpart is found with spectra matching those of O/B stars local to Centaurus A. The H II regions are embedded in a larger gas complex which is photoionized by the radiation of the central active galactic nucleus (AGN), but the O/B stars affect the spatial ionization pattern in the ENLR cloud very locally. In particular, in the surroundings of the youngest star forming region, we can isolate a tight mixing sequence in the diagnostic diagram going from gas with ionization due to a pure stellar continuum to gas only photoionized by the AGN. These results emphasize the complexity and the mixture of processes occurring in star forming regions under the influence of an AGN radiation. This is relevant for our understanding of AGN-induced star formation suggested to occur in a number of objects, including this region of Centaurus A. They also illustrate that these young stars influence the gas over only a limited region.

Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

OpenAIRE

Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

2016-01-01

Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

Orofacial complex regional pain syndrome: pathophysiologic mechanisms and functional MRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Kyung Mi; Kim, Hyug-Gi; Kang, Soo-Kyung; Auh, Q-Schick; Hong, Jyung-Pyo; Chun, Yang-Hyun

2017-08-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is one of the most challenging chronic pain conditions and is characterized by burning pain, allodynia, hyperalgesia, autonomic changes, trophic changes, edema, and functional loss involving mainly the extremities. Until recently, very few reports have been published concerning CRPS involving the orofacial area. We report on a 50-year-old female patient who presented with unbearable pain in all of her teeth and hypersensitivity of the facial skin. She also reported intractable pain in both extremities accompanied by temperature changes and orofacial pain that increased when the other pains were aggravated. In the case of CRPS with trigeminal neuropathic pain, protocols for proper diagnosis and prompt treatment have yet to be established in academia or in the clinical field. We performed functional magnetic resonance imaging for a thorough analysis of the cortical representation of the affected orofacial area immediately before and immediately after isolated light stimulus of the affected hand and foot and concluded that CRPS can be correlated with trigeminal neuropathy in the orofacial area. Furthermore, the patient was treated with carbamazepine administration and stellate ganglion block, which can result in a rapid improvement of pain in the trigeminal region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wireless peripheral nerve stimulation for complex regional pain syndrome type I of the upper extremity: a case illustration introducing a novel technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Herschkowitz, Daniel; Kubias, Jana

2018-04-13

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a debilitating painful disorder, cryptic in its pathophysiology and refractory condition with limited therapeutic options. Type I CRPS with its variable relationship to trauma has often no discernible fractures or nerve injuries and remains enigmatic in its response to conservative treatment as well as the other limited interventional therapies. Neuromodulation in the form of spinal cord and dorsal root ganglion stimulation (SCS, DRGS) has shown encouraging results, especially of causalgia or CRPS I of lower extremities. Upper extremity CRPS I is far more difficult. To report a case of upper extremity CRPS I treated by wireless peripheral nerve stimulation (WPNS) for its unique features and minimally invasive technique. The system does not involve implantation of battery or its connections. A 47 year old female patient presented with refractory CRPS I following a blunt trauma to her right forearm. As interventional treatment in the form of local anesthetics (Anesthesia of peripheral branches of radial nerve) and combined infusions of ketamine/lidocaine failed to provide any significant relief she opted for WPNS treatment. Based on the topographic distribution, two electrodes (Stimwave Leads: FR4A-RCV-A0 with tines, Generation 1 and FR4A-RCV-B0 with tines, Generation 1), were placed along the course of radial and median nerves under ultrasonography monitoring and guided by intraoperative stimulation. This procedure did not involve implantation of extension cables or the power source. At a frequency of 60 Hz and 300 μs the stimulation induced paresthesia along the distribution of the nerves. Therapeutic relief was observed with high frequency (HF) stimulation (HF 10 kHz/32 μs, 2.0 mA) reducing her pain from a visual analogue scale (VAS) score of 7-4 postoperatively. Three HF stimulations programs were provided at the time of discharge, as she improved in her sensory impairment to touch, pressure and temperature at her first

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

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Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Post-traumatic complex regional pain syndrome: clinical features and epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Ratti, Chiara; Nordio, Andrea; Resmini, Giuseppina; Murena, Luigi

2015-01-01

Summary Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic pain condition that occurs after a tissue injury (fractures, sprain, surgery) of the upper or lower extremities. A clear pathophysiological mechanism has not been established yet and different patterns are considered to play a role in the genesis of the disease. The diagnosis is made by different diagnosis criteria and a gold standard has not been established yet. Incidence of CRPS is unclear and large prospective studies on the incidence and prevalence of CRPS are scarce. The aim of this review is to give an overview on the prevalent data regarding this chronic syndrome. PMID:27134626

Peroneal island flap for wound coverage in complex injuries of the lower extremity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fazal A

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Akil Fazal1, Haroon-ur-Rashid1, Tahseen Cheema21Section of Orthopedics, Department of Surgery, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; 2Department of Orthopedics and Rehabilitation, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USABackground: Complex injuries of the lower extremity pose a therapeutic challenge owing to limited availability of local soft tissue for coverage. One option in this region is the pedicled fasciocutaneous flap based on perforators of the peroneal artery. In this case series, we present our experience of the peroneal island pedicled flap for reconstruction of lower extremity wounds.Methods: Records of 18 cases of peroneal island flap admitted consecutively to the Section of Orthopedics at Aga Khan University Hospital from January 1996 to December of 2009 were studied and their outcomes determined.Results: The most common indication for coverage was open wounds due to a road traffic accident (n = 10, followed by burns (n = 3. The most common area exposed was the lower third of the leg followed by the middle third. The tibia was exposed in 11 patients. The flaps ranged in size from 35 cm2 to over 200 cm2. In 13 patients, the flaps healed uneventfully, while in the remaining five there was partial flap necrosis. In four of the latter patients, the residual wound healed with conservative measures only, but the fifth patient required further surgery to achieve acceptable coverage.Conclusion: The peroneal artery flap appears to be a simple, useful, and reliable flap in the armamentarium of the surgeon when planning soft tissue coverage of the lower extremity.Keywords: leg injuries, surgical flaps, lower extremity

PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

1994-01-01

rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgueño, A.; Lana, X.; Serra, C.; Martínez, M.D.

2014-01-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burgueño, A. [Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Lana, X., E-mail: francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Serra, C. [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Martínez, M.D. [Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)

2014-02-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

Ultrasound-Guided Regional Anesthesia for Procedures of the Upper Extremity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farheen Mirza

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Anesthesia options for upper extremity surgery include general and regional anesthesia. Brachial plexus blockade has several advantages including decreased hemodynamic instability, avoidance of airway instrumentation, and intra-, as well as post-operative analgesia. Prior to the availability of ultrasound the risks of complications and failure of regional anesthesia made general anesthesia a more desirable option for anesthesiologists inexperienced in the practice of regional anesthesia. Ultrasonography has revolutionized the practice of regional anesthesia. By visualizing needle entry throughout the procedure, the relationship between the anatomical structures and the needle can reduce the incidence of complications. In addition, direct visualization of the spread of local anesthesia around the nerves provides instant feedback regarding the likely success of the block. This review article outlines how ultrasound has improved the safety and success of brachial plexus blocks. The advantages that ultrasound guidance provides are only as good as the experience of the anesthesiologist performing the block. For example, in experienced hands, with real time needle visualization, a supraclavicular brachial plexus block has changed from an approach with the highest risk of pneumothorax to a block with minimal risks making it the ideal choice for most upper extremity surgeries.

Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Su-Hong; Gong Yan-Chun; Huang Yan-Hua; Wu Cheng-Guo; Feng Tai-Chen; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2014-01-01

A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971–2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

[Effects of therapeutic complexes including balneoradonokinesitherapy, electromyostimulation and low-frequency magnetotherapy on regional blood flow in patients with postrraumatic gonarthritis].

Science.gov (United States)

Raspopova, E A; Udartsev, E Iu

2006-01-01

Balneoradonokinesitherapy alone and its combination with electrostimulation and low-frequency magnetotherapy were used for the treatment of regional blood flow disorders in 76 patients with posttraumatic gonarthritis. Balneoradonokinesitherapy in combination with electromyostimulation improved blood circulation. When low-frequency magnetotherapy was added to the latter complex, the regress of regional blood flow disorders of a damaged extremity was most significant.

Wave-mixing with high-order harmonics in extreme ultraviolet region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dao, Lap Van; Dinh, Khuong Ba; Le, Hoang Vu; Gaffney, Naylyn; Hannaford, Peter

2015-01-01

We report studies of the wave-mixing process in the extreme ultraviolet region with two near-infrared driving and controlling pulses with incommensurate frequencies (at 1400 nm and 800 nm). A non-collinear scheme for the two beams is used in order to spatially separate and to characterise the properties of the high-order wave-mixing field. We show that the extreme ultraviolet frequency mixing can be treated by perturbative, very high-order nonlinear optics; the modification of the wave-packet of the free electron needs to be considered in this process

The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

Science.gov (United States)

Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-03-01

The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver Angélil

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

Regional amplification of extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, M.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2016-12-01

Land temperatures, and in particular hot extremes, will likely increase by more than 2° C in many regions, even in the case that the global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial levels can be limited to 2°C. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for projected changes of extreme temperatures by comparing experiments from the GLACE-CMIP5 (Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project. In particular, we consider fully coupled experiments with all 6 involved GCMs and corresponding experiments where soil moisture is fixed to the local present-day seasonal cycle until the end of the 21st century. We consider the yearly hottest days and apply a scaling approach whereby we relate changes of hottest days to global mean temperature increase. We find that soil moisture-temperature coupling significantly contributes to additional future warming of extreme temperatures in many regions: In particular, it can explain more than 70% of the warming amplification of hottest days compared to global mean temperature in Central Europe, Central North America and Northern Australia, and around 50% of this signal in the Amazonian Region and Southern Africa.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also

Bilateral Complex Regional Pain Syndrome after Fracture of Bilateral Tibia and Fibula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senem Şaş

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Complex regional syndrome type 1 (CRPS-1 is a painful clinical condition. It occurs after a painful event and characterized by allodynia, hyperalgesia, edema, abnormalities in skin blood flow and abnormal sudomotor activity. When CRPS-1 is associated with nerve injury, it is defined as CRPS-2. Central and peripheral theory are responsible in etiopathogenesis of CRPS-1. Generally it occurs in the injured limb. But, it may ocur in the opposite extremities. In this article, we present a case developing bilateral CRPS-1 after bilateral tibia and fibula fracture by reviewing current literatüre.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Tai-Chen; Zhang Ke-Quan; Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhang Wen-Yu; Su Hai-Jing; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2015-01-01

Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. (paper)

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L moments method

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani; Shabri, Ani

2013-07-01

An approach based on regional frequency analysis using L moments and LH moments are revisited in this study. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the partial L moments (PL moments) method is employed, and a new relationship for homogeneity analysis is developed. The results were then compared with those obtained using the method of L moments and LH moments of order two. The Selangor catchment, consisting of 37 sites and located on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, is chosen as a case study. PL moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), and generalized Pareto distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. PL moment ratio diagram and Z test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the three approaches showed that GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation used for performance evaluation shows that the method of PL moments would outperform L and LH moments methods for estimation of large return period events.

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Low Complexity Tail-Biting Trellises for Some Extremal Self-Dual Codes

OpenAIRE

Olocco , Grégory; Otmani , Ayoub

2002-01-01

International audience; We obtain low complexity tail-biting trellises for some extremal self-dual codes for various lengths and fields such as the [12,6,6] ternary Golay code and a [24,12,8] Hermitian self-dual code over GF(4). These codes are obtained from a particular family of cyclic Tanner graphs called necklace factor graphs.

Shrinking the Synchrotron : Tabletop Extreme Ultraviolet Absorption of Transition-Metal Complexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, Kaili; Lin, Ming Fu; Ryland, Elizabeth S.; Verkamp, Max A.; Benke, Kristin; De Groot, Frank M F; Girolami, Gregory S.; Vura-Weis, Josh

2016-01-01

We show that the electronic structure of molecular first-row transition-metal complexes can be reliably measured using tabletop high-harmonic XANES at the metal M2,3 edge. Extreme ultraviolet photons in the 50-70 eV energy range probe 3p → 3d transitions, with the same selection rules as soft X-ray

Venipuncture-Induced Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foad Elahi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Venipuncture, the most frequently performed invasive medical procedure, is usually benign. Generally it produces only transitory mild discomfort. Venipuncture-induced neuropathic pain is hard to recognize at an early stage. Medical literature reviews show that there is not adequate medical knowledge about this important subject. The inciting incident in complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS can often seem far too trivial to result in a condition with such severe pathophysiologic effects. The practicing physician has little information available to enable early recognition of the condition, initiation of multidisciplinary treatment modalities, and proper referral to pain specialists. We encountered a unique case of venipuncture-induced complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS. The patient is a 52-year-old school teacher with no significant past medical history, who presented initially to the Center of Pain Medicine with left upper extremity pain. The pain started while phlebotomy was performed in the patient’s left antecubital area for routine blood check. The patient’s pain did not improve with multiple medications, physical therapy, or several nerve blocks. The patient demonstrated all the signs and symptoms of chronic neuropathic pain of CRPS in the upper extremity with minimal response to the continuous pain management. We decided to proceed with cervical spinal cord nerve stimulation along with continuing other modalities. The patient responded to this combination. During the follow-up, we noticed that the patient’s pain course was complicated by extension of the CRPS to her lower extremity. We will describe the course of treatment for the patient in this paper. In this paper we will discuss the electrical neuromodulation as an important modality in addition to the multidisciplinary pain management for a patient with venipuncture-induced chronic neuropathic pain.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

The extreme solar storm of May 1921: observations and a complex topological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lundstedt

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A complex solid torus model was developed in order to be able to study an extreme solar storm, the so-called "Great Storm" or "New York Railroad Storm" of May 1921, when neither high spatial and time resolution magnetic field measurements, solar flare nor coronal mass ejection observations were available. We suggest that a topological change happened in connection with the occurrence of the extreme solar storm. The solar storm caused one of the most severe space weather effects ever.

An archaeal tRNA-synthetase complex that enhances aminoacylation under extreme conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godinic-Mikulcic, Vlatka; Jaric, Jelena; Hausmann, Corinne D

2011-01-01

Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) play an integral role in protein synthesis, functioning to attach the correct amino acid with its cognate tRNA molecule. AaRSs are known to associate into higher-order multi-aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase complexes (MSC) involved in archaeal and eukaryotic translatio...... of a complex between MtSerRS and MtArgRS provides a means by which methanogenic archaea can optimize an early step in translation under a wide range of extreme environmental conditions....

Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

Science.gov (United States)

Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

2017-04-01

Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

Asthma in Patients Climbing to High and Extreme Altitudes in the Tibetan Everest Region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huismans, Henrike K.; Douma, W. Rob; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; Renkema, Tineke E. J.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the behavior of asthma in patients traveling to high and extreme altitudes. Methods: Twenty-four Dutch patients with mild asthma did a trekking at high and extreme altitudes (up to 6410 m = 21030 ft) in the Tibetan Everest region. Asthma symptoms,

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Tai-Chen; Zhang, Ke-Quan; Su, Hai-Jing; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Gong, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Wen-Yu

2015-10-01

Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research on Public Welfare Industry, China (Grant No. GYHY201306049).

Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

2018-03-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic pain condition. It causes intense pain, usually in the arms, hands, legs, or feet. It may happen ... move the affected body part The cause of CRPS is unknown. There is no specific diagnostic test. ...

Demographic Features in Patients with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berat Meryem Alkan

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Summary Özet Orijinal Araştırma / Original Investigation 77 Aim: Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS is characterized by pain, vasomotor and sudomotor changes and trophic disturbances. It may develop as a result of trauma, especially extremity fractures and surgery. Although the pathogenesis of CRPS is not exactly clear explained, it has been suggested that central and periferal mechanisms play role and neurogenic inflamatuar and microvasculer functional impairmensts are accompanying to the process. Not all but some of the patients with past trauma or with other possible etiological factors develop CRPS. This suggests the presence of an individual predisposition. In this article, we searched post fractüred CRPS-I patients demographic characteristics, current systemic diseases and symptoms that accompany a CRPS in our records. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study conducted in Ankara Atatürk Education and Research Hospital, medical records of 356 patients admitted to physical medicine and rehabilitation outpatient clinics with fractures between January 2011 and June 2011 were evaluated and 34 patients diagnosed as CRPS-1 were included in the study. Results: 34 of 356 patients (9.56% with fractures were diagnosed as CRPS-1 in our outpatient clinics. Mean age of the patients was 46.05 years and 10 patients were females (29.4% and 24 patients (70.6% were males. Fractures were in upper extremities in 18 patients (52.9% and in lower extremities in 16 (47.1% patients. Neuropsychiatric disorders and other systemic diseases that may have a role in etiology of CRPS were found in lower rates in medical records of our patients. Conclusion: CRPS does not develop in every patients after travma who has etiologic risk factors, so it reminds that there exists a tendency to CRPS. We have observed that CRPS-1 risk was increased in male patients and in upper extremity fractures. We did not observe any other impertant factor which increases

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao

2017-07-19

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

The role of regional information in estimation of extreme point rainfalls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

1996-01-01

Previous analysis has shown that inclusion of regional information improves at-site estimation of point rainfalls and makes it possible to obtain estimates at non-monitored sites. The basis for this analysis was a partial duration series (PDS) modelling of individual rainfall observations and use...... point rainfall data into one sample from a common parent distribution and modelling with disregard of either the dependence between stations or the regional heterogeneity. The different models are analysed and compared with respect to the uncertainty of the predicted extreme events....

Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

2015-09-01

The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

2016-05-01

The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation

Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

2005-06-01

The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

An atypical case of postsurgical complex regional pain syndrome in a patient having nonhealing varicose venous ulcer treated by lumbar sympathectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kailash Kothari

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS of the lower limb is a relatively uncommon entity as compared to CRPS of the upper extremity. Literature search has revealed only 2 retrospective case series and a single case report of lower extremity CRPS type I from 1975 to 2014 on Pubmed, isolated cases of CRPS type I of lower extremity have also been reported following knee surgeries and arthroscopies. This report presents a case of lower limb CRPS type I, following surgery for varicose vein ulcer. Pain was not relieved with medications. Diagnostic lumbar sympathectomy was done and patient had tremendous relief of pain following that, proving sympathetic mediated pain of the involved limb.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Goudenhoofdt

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

Quantifying China's regional economic complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jian; Zhou, Tao

2018-02-01

China has experienced an outstanding economic expansion during the past decades, however, literature on non-monetary metrics that reveal the status of China's regional economic development are still lacking. In this paper, we fill this gap by quantifying the economic complexity of China's provinces through analyzing 25 years' firm data. First, we estimate the regional economic complexity index (ECI), and show that the overall time evolution of provinces' ECI is relatively stable and slow. Then, after linking ECI to the economic development and the income inequality, we find that the explanatory power of ECI is positive for the former but negative for the latter. Next, we compare different measures of economic diversity and explore their relationships with monetary macroeconomic indicators. Results show that the ECI index and the non-linear iteration based Fitness index are comparative, and they both have stronger explanatory power than other benchmark measures. Further multivariate regressions suggest the robustness of our results after controlling other socioeconomic factors. Our work moves forward a step towards better understanding China's regional economic development and non-monetary macroeconomic indicators.

Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

OpenAIRE

Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

2016-01-01

This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 in complex terrain using the WRF regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Sandvik, A. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Institute for Marine Research (IMR), Bergen (Norway); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway)

2011-10-15

Results from a first-time employment of the WRF regional climate model to climatological simulations in Europe are presented. The ERA-40 reanalysis (resolution 1 ) has been downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 30 and 10 km for the period of 1961-1990. This model setup includes the whole North Atlantic in the 30 km domain and spectral nudging is used to keep the large scales consistent with the driving ERA-40 reanalysis. The model results are compared against an extensive observational network of surface variables in complex terrain in Norway. The comparison shows that the WRF model is able to add significant detail to the representation of precipitation and 2-m temperature of the ERA-40 reanalysis. Especially the geographical distribution, wet day frequency and extreme values of precipitation are highly improved due to the better representation of the orography. Refining the resolution from 30 to 10 km further increases the skill of the model, especially in case of precipitation. Our results indicate that the use of 10-km resolution is advantageous for producing regional future climate projections. Use of a large domain and spectral nudging seems to be useful in reproducing the extreme precipitation events due to the better resolved synoptic scale features over the North Atlantic, and also helps to reduce the large regional temperature biases over Norway. This study presents a high-resolution, high-quality climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies. (orig.)

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS/RSD and Neuropathic Pain: Role of Intravenous Bisphosphonates as Analgesics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Yanow

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Neuropathic pain is a sequela of dysfunction, injuries, or diseases of the peripheral and/or central nervous system pain pathways, which has historically been extremely difficult to treat. Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS types 1 and 2 are neuropathic pain conditions that have a long history in the medical literature but whose pathophysiology remains elusive and whose available treatment options remain few. While an exact animal model for CRPS doesn't yet exist, there are several animal models of neuropathic pain that develop behaviors of hypersensitivity, one of the hallmark signs of neuropathic pain in humans.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome after Transradial Cardiac Catheterization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Jou Lai

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS is a disease with unclear pathophysiology. The condition is characterized by pain, soft tissue change, vasomotor change, and even psychosocial disturbance. It may affect the upper more than the lower extremities, and the distal more than the proximal. The trigger factors include carpal tunnel release, Dupuytren's repair, tendon release procedures, knee surgery, crush injury, ankle arthrodesis, amputation, and hip arthroplasty. Rarely, it has been associated with stroke, mastectomy, pregnancy, and osteogenesis imperfecta. Herein, we present a rare case of a patient who was diagnosed with CRPS after transradial cardiac catheterization. CRPS was first diagnosed due to hand swelling, allodynia, paresthesia, and the limited range of motion of interphalangeal, metacarpophalangeal, and wrist joints, with the preceding factor of transradial cardiac catheterization, and was then confirmed by a three-phase bone scan. After intensive physical therapy with hydrotherapy, manual soft tissue release, and occupational therapy for the hand function, there was much improvement in range of motion and hand function. There was no allodynia or painful sensation in the follow-up. After training, the functional status of this patient was adequate for daily activity.

Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

Regional cerebral blood flow patterns in extremely elderly patients with Alzheimer's disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirao, Kentaro; Hanyu, Haruo; Kanetaka, Hidekazu; Shimizu, Soichiro; Sato, Tomohiko; Iwamoto, Toshihiko

2008-01-01

Clinical and pathologic features in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients differ depending on the age of onset. The aim of our study was to compare the regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) patterns of younger, elderly, and extremely elderly patients with AD with that of controls to characterize the rCBF patterns in extremely elderly patients with AD. Single photon emission CT (SPECT) was performed in 113 patients with probable AD, including 34 younger (<70 years), 41 elderly (70-84 years), and 38 extremely elderly (≥85 years) patients divided according to age at examination. The SPECT data were analyzed using three-dimensional stereotactic surface projection (3D-SSP). No significant differences regarding gender, duration of disease, education, and Mini-Mental State Examination score were found among the groups. As compared with controls, younger and elderly AD demonstrated significant reduction of rCBF in the temporo-parietal areas, posterior cingulate cortices and precunei, which is considered to be a characteristic rCBF pattern in AD. On the other hand, the extremely elderly AD group demonstrated significant reduction of rCBF in the frontal and medial temporal areas, in addition to the temporo-parietal areas, posterior cingulate cortices and precunei, but the reductions were milder than in those in younger and elderly AD groups. The extremely elderly patients with AD showed atypical rCBF patterns in AD compared to younger and elderly patients with AD. Our data suggest that pathological features in extremely elderly AD may be different from those in younger and elderly AD and that diseases different from AD, such as senile dementia of the neurofibrillary tangle type may be clinically diagnosed as extremely elderly AD. (author)

Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

2014-05-01

The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: An inflammatory disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Dirckx (Maaike)

2015-01-01

markdownabstractThe pathophysiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is complex and still not completely understood. In addition to a convincing role of inflammation, there are a number of arguments why an involvement of the immune system has been suggested in the pathophysiology of CRPS.

Estimation of Economic Efficiency of Regional Touristic Complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurchenkov Vladimir Viktorovich

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The article describes the features of the development of the regional touristic complex in modern conditions and determines the direction of realizing the potential of the regional market of tourist services. The authors reveal the multiplicative interrelation for analyzing the interaction of the primary and secondary sectors of the regional market of tourist services. The key indicators of efficiency are outlined, the extent of their relevance for assessing the potential of international tourism in the region is revealed. The authors calculate the relative indicators reflecting the dynamics of incomes from inbound, outbound and domestic tourism in relation to the total income from tourism activities in the region during the reporting period, usually for one calendar year. On the basis of these parameters, the classification of the regions of the Southern Federal District in terms of tourist attraction is carried out. The authors determine the reasons of the low tourist attractiveness of the Volgograd region in comparison with other regions of the Southern Federal District. It is substantiated that the potential of expanding tourism activity is not fully realized today in the Volgograd region. The technique of analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of regional touristic complex on the basis of cluster approach is suggested. For analyzing the effectiveness of regional tourism cluster the authors propose to use indicators that reflect the overall performance of the regional tourism cluster, characterizing the impact of cluster development of the area, or the regional market, as well as evaluating the performance of each of the companies cooperating in the framework of the cluster. The article contains recommendations to the regional authorities on improving the efficiency of regional touristic complex in the short- and long-term prospects.

Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies: Extreme Precipitation Events in Southeastern South America

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.; Gomes, G.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2016-12-01

Frequently found in southeastern South America during the warm season from October through May, strong and localized precipitation maxima are usually associated with the presence of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) travelling across the region. Flashfloods and landslides can be caused by these extremes in precipitation, with damages to the local communities. Heavily populated, southeastern South America hosts many agricultural activities and hydroelectric production. It encompasses one of the most important river basins in South America, the La Plata River Basin. Therefore, insufficient precipitation is equally prejudicial to the region socio-economic activities. MCCs are originated in the warm season of many regions of the world, however South American MCCs are related to the most severe thunderstorms, and have significantly contributed to the precipitation regime. We used the hourly outputs of Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, in the analysis of the dynamics and physical characteristics of MCCs in South America. SRDAS is the 25-km resolution downscaling of a global reanalysis available from January 1998 through December 2010. The Regional Spectral Model is the SRDAS atmospheric component and assimilates satellite-based precipitation estimates from the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique global precipitation analyses. In this study, the SRDAS atmospheric and land-surface variables, global reanalysis products, infrared satellite imagery, and the physical retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), on board of the NASA's Aqua satellite, were used in the evaluation of the MCCs developed in southeastern South America from 2008 and 2010. Low-level circulations and vertical profiles were analyzed together to establish the relevance of the moisture transport in connection with the upper-troposphere dynamics to the development of those MCCs.

Tourniquet Deflation Prior to 20 Minutes in Upper Extremity Intravenous Regional Anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurich, Richard W; Langan, Justin W; Teasdall, Robert J; Tanner, Stephanie L; Sanders, John L

2018-03-01

Bier blocks, or intravenous regional anesthesia (IVRA), are a method of anesthesia for upper extremity surgeries. This study reports our experience with tourniquet deflation prior to 20 minutes with upper extremity IVRA. This study was designed as a retrospective cohort analysis. Records, including intraoperative and immediate postoperative anesthesia notes, of 430 patients who underwent IVRA with an upper extremity Bier block and a corresponding tourniquet time of less than 20 minutes were reviewed. Patient demographics, procedure(s) performed, American Society of Anesthesiologists scores, volume of lidocaine used in Bier block, tourniquet time, and any complications were recorded. This cohort consisted of 127 males and 303 females. The 3 most common procedures performed were carpal tunnel release (315), trigger finger release (47), and excision of masses (34). The average tourniquet time for this cohort was 16 minutes (range, 9-19 minutes), and the average volume of lidocaine (0.5% plain) injected was 44 mL (range, 30-70 mL). A tourniquet time of 17 minutes or less was observed in 339 patients, and 170 patients had tourniquet times of 15 minutes or less. Five complications were recorded: intraoperative vomiting, mild postoperative nausea/vomiting, severe postoperative nausea and vomiting, and transient postoperative hypotension that responded to a fluid bolus. No major complications were observed in our cohort of upper extremity IVRA and tourniquet times of less than 20 minutes. Several variables play a role in the safety of upper extremity IVRA.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

Addressing the mischaracterization of extreme rainfall in regional climate model simulations - A synoptic pattern based bias correction approach

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona

2018-01-01

Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.

Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2015-01-09

During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita

2016-04-01

EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

Region Tourist and Recreation Complex Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizaveta Oyusovna Tappaskhanova

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The subject matter of the research is the tourist and recreation complex of Kabardino-Balkar Republic. The purpose of the work is to provide solutions to problems of the republic tourist and recreation complex development. The results obtained from the study showed that in spite of the fact that in the region’s development certain positive steps are taken, according to the indicators of the tourism and recreation development, the region has not reach the level of the 1990th yet, the possibilities of this major sector of the republic economy remain not demanded. It is highlighted, that the most important factor in the tourist and recreation complex development is its infrastructure condition. It is recommended to use the model of the infrastructure management aimed at providing its effective functioning and development due to formation of interaction system at every power level through a network of the centers of the tourist and recreation complex development. In the article, the need for the use of the innovative approaches for the republic tourist and recreation complex development in the particular development of the new tourist directions are also found. For the purpose to improve the professional training of personnel for the tourism and recreation sphere, the need for a transition to multilevel training of personnel is proved. The main directions of the republic image development on the basis of designing and implementing of the regional program of its image development as the tourist territory and creation of the tourist information center are defined. Realization of all these problems allows to develop a highly effective and competitive tourist and recreation complex in Kabardino-Balkaria.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

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Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

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Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Game theory and extremal optimization for community detection in complex dynamic networks.

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Lung, Rodica Ioana; Chira, Camelia; Andreica, Anca

2014-01-01

The detection of evolving communities in dynamic complex networks is a challenging problem that recently received attention from the research community. Dynamics clearly add another complexity dimension to the difficult task of community detection. Methods should be able to detect changes in the network structure and produce a set of community structures corresponding to different timestamps and reflecting the evolution in time of network data. We propose a novel approach based on game theory elements and extremal optimization to address dynamic communities detection. Thus, the problem is formulated as a mathematical game in which nodes take the role of players that seek to choose a community that maximizes their profit viewed as a fitness function. Numerical results obtained for both synthetic and real-world networks illustrate the competitive performance of this game theoretical approach.

Modified Graded Motor Imagery for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1 of the Upper Extremity in the Acute Phase: A Patient Series

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Lagueux, Emilie; Charest, Joelle; Lefrancois-Caron, Eve; Mauger, Marie-Eve; Mercier, Emilie; Savard, Kim; Tousignant-Laflamme, Yannick

2012-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a pathologic condition in which the painful experience is disproportionate in time and intensity in comparison with the inciting event. At present, the pathophysiology of CRPS is not well understood. Several studies have indicated that cortical reorganization plays a role in the persistence of the symptoms.…

COMPLEX REGIONAL PAIN SYNDROME – CLINIC, DIAGNOSTICS, TREATMENT

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N. A. Shostak

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The problem of pain today remains one of the fundamental issues of medical care. It is known that the pain is the leading cause of treatmentto the doctor. Among pain syndromes, a special place belongs to the complex regional pain syndromes. They are distinguished by the multidisciplinary problem, the presence of explicit nature of the pain, difficulty of diagnosis and nature of the treatment. The article presentsmodern data on the diagnosis and treatment of the complex regional pain syndromes.

COMPLEX REGIONAL PAIN SYNDROME – CLINIC, DIAGNOSTICS, TREATMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Shostak

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of pain today remains one of the fundamental issues of medical care. It is known that the pain is the leading cause of treatmentto the doctor. Among pain syndromes, a special place belongs to the complex regional pain syndromes. They are distinguished by the multidisciplinary problem, the presence of explicit nature of the pain, difficulty of diagnosis and nature of the treatment. The article presentsmodern data on the diagnosis and treatment of the complex regional pain syndromes.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

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Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA

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Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok

2017-12-01

The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought

Model of geophysical fields representation in problems of complex correlation-extreme navigation

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Volodymyr KHARCHENKO

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A model of the optimal representation of spatial data for the task of complex correlation-extreme navigation is developed based on the criterion of minimum deviation of the correlation functions of the original and the resulting fields. Calculations are presented for one-dimensional case using the approximation of the correlation function by Fourier series. It is shown that in the presence of different geophysical map data fields their representation is possible by single template with optimal sampling without distorting the form of the correlation functions.

Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

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Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

2017-12-01

In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

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Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

Objective sensory evaluation of the spread of complex regional pain syndrome.

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Edinger, Lara; Schwartzman, Robert J; Ahmad, Ayesha; Erwin, Kirsten; Alexander, Guillermo M

2013-01-01

The spread of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) has been well documented. Many severe refractory long-standing patients have total body pain (TBP) that evolved from a single extremity injury. The purpose of this study was to document by objective sensory threshold testing the extent of body area involvement in 20 long-standing patients with CRPS who have TBP. A comparison of sensory threshold testing parameters between 20 long-standing refractory patients with CRPS who have TBP versus 10 healthy participants. Twenty patients with CRPS who stated that they suffered from total body pain were chosen from the Drexel University College of Medicine CRPS database. They were compared to 10 healthy participants that were age and gender matched to the patients with CRPS. The sensory parameters tested were: skin temperature; static and mechanical allodynia; thermal allodynia; mechanical hyperalgesia; after sensations following all sensory tests. The sites chosen for testing in the patients with CRPS were the most painful area in each of 8 body regions that comprised the total body area. Five patients with CRPS had signs of CRPS over 100% of their body (20%). One patient had pain over 87% and another had pain over 90% of their body area. The average percentage of body involvement was 62% (range 37% - 100%). All patients with CRPS had at least one sensory parameter abnormality in all body regions. All patients with CRPS had lower pain thresholds for static allodynia in all body areas, while 50% demonstrated a lower threshold for dynamic allodynia in all body regions compared to the healthy participants. Cold allodynia had a higher median pain rating on the Likert pain scale in all body areas versus healthy participants except for the chest, abdomen, and back. Eighty-five percent of the patients with CRPS had a significantly lower pain threshold for mechanical hyperalgesia in all body areas compared to the healthy participants. After sensations occurred after all sensory

Cambrian nepheline syenite complex at Jabal Sawda, Midyan region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Liddicoat, W.K.; Ramsay, C.R.; Hedge, C.E.

1986-01-01

The only nepheline syenite complex presently known in the Arabian Shield is at Jabal Sawda, about 30 km S of Haql in the extreme NW of Saudi Arabia. It is a post-tectonic, composite intrusion with a crudely concentric structure. A core of leuco-nepheline syenite, a partial ring of mela-nepheline syenite, and an almost complete outer ring of alkali-feldspar syenite are the main rock units. Several mega-inclusions of porphyritic nepheline syenite, nepheline monzosyenite, malignite and ijolite are present in the leuco-nepheline syenite. The chemical composition is notable for very high values of Al2O3, Na2O, Ba, La, Nb, Sr and Zr. U{single bond}Pb isotope dating indicates an emplacement age of 553 ?? 4 Ma, one of an increasing number of reliable Cambrian isotope dates in the northern Red Sea region. ?? 1986.

Cambrian nepheline syenite complex at Jabal Sawda, Midyan region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Liddicoat, W. K.; Ramsay, C. R.; Hedge, C. E.

The only nepheline syenite complex presently known in the Arabian Shield is at Jabal Sawda, about 30 km S of Haql in the extreme NW of Saudi Arabia. It is a post-tectonic, composite intrusion with a crudely concentric structure. A core of leuco-nepheline syenite, a partial ring of mela-nepheline syenite, and an almost complete outer ring of alkali-feldspar syenite are the main rock units. Several mega-inclusions of porphyritic nepheline syenite, nepheline monzosyenite, malignite and ijolite are present in the leuco-nepheline syenite. The chemical composition is notable for very high values of Al 2O 3, Na 2O, Ba, La, Nb, Sr and Zr. U sbnd Pb isotope dating indicates an emplacement age of 553 ± 4 Ma, one of an increasing number of reliable Cambrian isotope dates in the northern Red Sea region.

The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

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Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

2017-12-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

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Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

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Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Attributing regional effects of the 2014 Jordanian extreme drought to external climate drivers

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Bergaoui, Karim; Mitchell, Dann; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Otto, Friederike; McDonnell, Rachael; Dadson, Simon; Allen, Myles

2015-04-01

Throughout 2014, the regions of Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria have experienced a persistent draught with clear impacts on the local populations. In this study we perform an extreme event attribution analysis of how such a draught has changed under climate change, with a specific focus on the flow rate of the Upper Jordan river and the water level of Lake Tiberious (AKA the Sea of Galilee). Both of which hold major societal, political and religious importance. To perform the analysis we make use of distributed computing power to run thousands of modelled years of 2014 with slightly different initial conditions. We use an atmosphere only model (HadAM3p) with a nested 50 km regional model covering Africa and the Middle East. The 50 km model atmospheric variables will be used directly to force offline our 1 km LIS surface model. Two separate experiments and simulations are performed, 1. for all known climate forcings that are present in 2014, and 2. for a naturalised 2014 scenario where we assume humans never impacted the climate. We perform sensitivity analyses on the observed precipitation over the regions of interest, and determine that the TRMM data is in good agreement with station data obtained from the Jordanian Ministry of Water. Using a combination of the TRMM and model data we are able to make clear statements on the attribution of a 2014-like extreme draught event to human causal factors.

Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

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Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

2013-04-01

We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

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S. D. Outten

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

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Mascioli, Nora R.

Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

Community detection in complex networks using deep auto-encoded extreme learning machine

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Wang, Feifan; Zhang, Baihai; Chai, Senchun; Xia, Yuanqing

2018-06-01

Community detection has long been a fascinating topic in complex networks since the community structure usually unveils valuable information of interest. The prevalence and evolution of deep learning and neural networks have been pushing forward the advancement in various research fields and also provide us numerous useful and off the shelf techniques. In this paper, we put the cascaded stacked autoencoders and the unsupervised extreme learning machine (ELM) together in a two-level embedding process and propose a novel community detection algorithm. Extensive comparison experiments in circumstances of both synthetic and real-world networks manifest the advantages of the proposed algorithm. On one hand, it outperforms the k-means clustering in terms of the accuracy and stability thus benefiting from the determinate dimensions of the ELM block and the integration of sparsity restrictions. On the other hand, it endures smaller complexity than the spectral clustering method on account of the shrinkage in time spent on the eigenvalue decomposition procedure.

Hierarchical Model for the Similarity Measurement of a Complex Holed-Region Entity Scene

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Zhanlong Chen

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Complex multi-holed-region entity scenes (i.e., sets of random region with holes are common in spatial database systems, spatial query languages, and the Geographic Information System (GIS. A multi-holed-region (region with an arbitrary number of holes is an abstraction of the real world that primarily represents geographic objects that have more than one interior boundary, such as areas that contain several lakes or lakes that contain islands. When the similarity of the two complex holed-region entity scenes is measured, the number of regions in the scenes and the number of holes in the regions are usually different between the two scenes, which complicates the matching relationships of holed-regions and holes. The aim of this research is to develop several holed-region similarity metrics and propose a hierarchical model to measure comprehensively the similarity between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The procedure first divides a complex entity scene into three layers: a complex scene, a micro-spatial-scene, and a simple entity (hole. The relationships between the adjacent layers are considered to be sets of relationships, and each level of similarity measurements is nested with the adjacent one. Next, entity matching is performed from top to bottom, while the similarity results are calculated from local to global. In addition, we utilize position graphs to describe the distribution of the holed-regions and subsequently describe the directions between the holes using a feature matrix. A case study that uses the Great Lakes in North America in 1986 and 2015 as experimental data illustrates the entire similarity measurement process between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The experimental results show that the hierarchical model accounts for the relationships of the different layers in the entire complex holed-region entity scene. The model can effectively calculate the similarity of complex holed-region entity scenes, even if the

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

Extreme value analysis of air pollution data and their comparison between two large urban regions of South America

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Leila Droprinchinski Martins

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Sixteen years of hourly atmospheric pollutant data (1996–2011 in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP, and seven years (2005–2011 of data measured in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ, were analyzed in order to study the extreme pollution events and their return period. In addition, the objective was to compare the air quality between the two largest Brazilian urban areas and provide information for decision makers, government agencies and civil society. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were applied to investigate the behavior of pollutants in these two regions. Although GEV and GPD are different approaches, they presented similar results. The probability of higher concentrations for CO, NO, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 was more frequent during the winter, and O3 episodes occur most frequently during summer in the MASP. On the other hand, there is no seasonally defined behavior in MARJ for pollutants, with O3 presenting the shortest return period for high concentrations. In general, Ibirapuera and Campos Elísios stations present the highest probabilities of extreme events with high concentrations in MASP and MARJ, respectively. When the regions are compared, MASP presented higher probabilities of extreme events for all analyzed pollutants, except for NO; while O3 and PM2.5 are those with most frequent probabilities of presenting extreme episodes, in comparison other pollutants. Keywords: Air pollutants, Extreme events, Megacities, Ozone, Particulate matter

Regional metamorphism at extreme conditions: Implications for orogeny at convergent plate margins

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yong-Fei; Chen, Ren-Xu

2017-09-01

Regional metamorphism at extreme conditions refers either to Alpine-type metamorphism at low geothermal gradients of geothermal gradients of >30 °C/km. Extreme pressures refer to those above the polymorphic transition of quartz to coesite, so that ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogite-facies metamorphism occurs at mantle depths of >80 km. Extreme temperatures refer to those higher than 900 °C at crustal depths of ≤80 km, so that ultrahigh-temperature (UHT) granulite-facies metamorphism occurs at medium to high pressures. While crustal subduction at the low geothermal gradients results in blueschist-eclogite facies series without arc volcanism, heating of the thinned orogenic lithosphere brings about the high geothermal gradients for amphibolite-granulite facies series with abundant magmatism. Therefore, UHP metamorphic rocks result from cold lithospheric subduction to the mantle depths, whereas UHT metamorphic rocks are produced by hot underplating of the asthenospheric mantle at the crustal depths. Active continental rifting is developed on the thinned lithosphere in response to asthenospheric upwelling, and this tectonism is suggested as a feasible mechanism for regional granulite-facies metamorphism, with the maximum temperature depending on the extent to which the mantle lithosphere is thinned prior to the rifting. While lithospheric compression is associated with subduction metamorphism in accretionary and collisional orogens, the thinned orogenic lithosphere undergoes extension due to the asthenospheric upwelling to result in orogen-parallel rifting metamorphism and magmatism. Thus, the rifting metamorphism provides a complement to the subduction metamorphism and its operation marks the asthenospheric heating of the orogenic lithosphere. Because of the partial melting and melt extraction of the lower continental crust, contemporaneous granite-migmatite-granulite associations may serve as a petrological indicator of rifting orogeny that is superimposed on

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-10-20

Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

Evolution in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Northeast Region and Brazilian Amazon in XXI Century

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, P. M.; Veiga, J. A.; Correia, F. S.; Brito, A. L.

2013-05-01

The aim of this research was evaluate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in Brazilian Amazon and Northeast Region, doubling CO2 concentration in agreement of IPCC A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2001). For this evaluation was used ETA model (Chou et al., 2011), forced with CCSM3 Global model data (Meehl, 2006) to run 4 experiments, only for January, February and March: 1980-1990, 2000-2010, 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. Using the first decade as reference (1980-1990), was evaluated changes occurred in following decades, with a methodology to classify extremes events adapted from Frich (2002) and Gao (2006). Higher was the class, more intense is the event. An increase of 25% was observed in total precipitation in Brazilian Amazon for the end of XXI century and 12% for extreme events type 1, 9% for events type 2 and 10% for type 3. By the other hand, a 17% decrease of precipitation in Brazilian Northeast was observed, and a pronounced decay of 24% and 15% in extreme events contribution type 1 and 2 to total amount of precipitation, respectively. The difference between total normal type events was positive in this three decades compared with reference decade 1980-1990, varying positively from 4 to 6 thousand events included in normality by decade, these events was decreased in your majority of Class 1 events, which presented a decay of at least 3.500 events by each decade. This suggests an intensification of extreme events, considering that the amount of precipitation by class increased, and the number of events by class decreased. To Northeast region, an increasing in 9% of contribution to events type 3 class was observed, as well as in the frequency of this type of events (about of 700 more events). Major decreasing in number of classes extreme events occur in 2000-2010, to classes 1 and 3, with 7,2 and 5,6%, and by the end of century in class 3, with 4,5%. For the three analyzed decades a total decrease of 8.400 events was

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

454 sequencing reveals extreme complexity of the class II Major Histocompatibility Complex in the collared flycatcher

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Gustafsson Lars

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of their functional significance, the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC class I and II genes have been the subject of continuous interest in the fields of ecology, evolution and conservation. In some vertebrate groups MHC consists of multiple loci with similar alleles; therefore, the multiple loci must be genotyped simultaneously. In such complex systems, understanding of the evolutionary patterns and their causes has been limited due to challenges posed by genotyping. Results Here we used 454 amplicon sequencing to characterize MHC class IIB exon 2 variation in the collared flycatcher, an important organism in evolutionary and immuno-ecological studies. On the basis of over 152,000 sequencing reads we identified 194 putative alleles in 237 individuals. We found an extreme complexity of the MHC class IIB in the collared flycatchers, with our estimates pointing to the presence of at least nine expressed loci and a large, though difficult to estimate precisely, number of pseudogene loci. Many similar alleles occurred in the pseudogenes indicating either a series of recent duplications or extensive concerted evolution. The expressed alleles showed unambiguous signals of historical selection and the occurrence of apparent interlocus exchange of alleles. Placing the collared flycatcher's MHC sequences in the context of passerine diversity revealed transspecific MHC class II evolution within the Muscicapidae family. Conclusions 454 amplicon sequencing is an effective tool for advancing our understanding of the MHC class II structure and evolutionary patterns in Passeriformes. We found a highly dynamic pattern of evolution of MHC class IIB genes with strong signals of selection and pronounced sequence divergence in expressed genes, in contrast to the apparent sequence homogenization in pseudogenes. We show that next generation sequencing offers a universal, affordable method for the characterization and, in perspective

Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

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Y. Hu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Dry Spells during Rainy Season in the Wei River Basin, China

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Dunxian She

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Our research analyzes the regional changes of extreme dry spell, represented by the annual maximum dry spell length (noted as AMDSL during the rainy season in the Wei River Basin (WRB of China for 1960–2014 using the L-moments method. The mean AMDSL values increase from the west to the east of the WRB, suggesting a high dry risk in the east compared to the west in the WRB. To investigate the regional frequency more reasonably, the WRB is clustered into four homogenous subregions via the K-means method and some subjective adjustments. The goodness-of-fit test shows that the GEV, PE3, and GLO distribution can be accepted as the “best-fit” model for subregions 1 and 4, subregion 2, and subregion 3, respectively. The quantiles of AMDSL under various return levels figure out a similar spatial distribution with mean AMDSL. We also find that the dry risk in subregion 2 and subregion 4 might be higher than that in subregion 1. The relationship between ENSO events and extreme dry spell events in the rainy season with cross wavelet analysis method proves that ENSO events play a critical role in triggering extreme dry events during rainy season in the WRB.

"Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) in Sexually Abused Children: An Exloratory Study.

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Hall, Darlene Kordich

1999-01-01

Compares three groups of young sexually abused children on seven "Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) indices. As cumulative number of types of trauma increased, the number of CP/DES symptoms rose. Results suggest that CP/DES also characterizes sexually abused children, especially those who have…

An empirical application of regional security complex theory on eastern partnership region

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Ludmila STUPARU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Eastern Partnership (EaP is a very dynamic region. If a year ago the EaP was seen as an authentic and vibrant „laboratory” of democracy building, overcoming the remains of the totalitarian state and putting the basis of a free and pluralist society, nowadays the Eastern Partnership is seen as an „out-dated” approach of the EU. However, Eastern Partnership is visible on European political arena and the big powers (USA, Russia and the EU pay attention more and more to the evolution of EaP countries. Moreover, it seems to be a confrontation between Russia and Western powers regarding the political and geopolitical orientation of EaP countries. Kremlin tries actively to stop the efforts of the EaP to close to the EU and on the other side, the EU as well as the USA encourage EaP countries to implement reforms in order to build their democracy. This paper aims to analyse the Eastern Partnership in terms of security complex, trying to argue that Eastern Partnership countries at this phase don’t form a Regional Security Complex and the EU and USA should rethink its approach towards this region.

Vacuum assisted closure therapy for treatment of complex wounds in replanted extremities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Min; Qi, Baiwen; Yu, Aixi; Pan, Zhenyu; Zhu, Shaobo; Deng, Kai; Tao, Shengxiang

2013-11-01

The object of this study was to compare the outcomes of the vacuum assisted closure (VAC) therapy and conventional wound care with dressing change for treatment of complex wounds in patients with replantation of amputated upper and lower extremities. Data of 43 patients with replantation of amputated extremities from May 2004 to December 2011 were reviewed. There were 18 wounds of 18 patients with replantation, which were treated by dressing change and 26 wounds of 25 patients by VAC therapy. The outcomes were evaluated by the survival rate of replanted extremities, growth of granulation tissue, interval between wound treatment and secondary procedure and eventual secondary wound coverage methods. Vascular thromboses were found in 3 patients with wound treatment by dressing change and 5 by VAC. All replants of two groups of patients survived after salvage procedures. The wound score was 3.6 ± 0.7 in the conventional dressing change group and 5.8 ± 0.7 in the VAC group at the sixth day after treatment, respectively. The intervals between wound treatment and secondary wound coverage procedure were 12.0 ± 1.7 days in the dressing change group and 6.1 ± 0.7 days in the VAC group. Flaps were applied for wound coverage in 9 out of 18 (50.0%) wounds in the dressing change group and 5 out of 26 (19.2%) in the VAC group (P VAC could promote the growth of granulation tissue of wound, decrease the need of flap for wound coverage, and did not change the survival of replantation. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Challenges of Tsunami Disaster and Extreme climate Events Along Coastal Region in Asia-Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhari, S.

2017-12-01

South Asia is more vulnerable to Geo disasters and impacts of climate changes in recent years. On 26 December 2004 massive waves triggered by an earthquake surged into coastal communities in Asia and East Africa with devastating force. Hitting Indonesia, Sri Lanka , Thailand and India hardest, the deadly waves swept more than 200 000 people to their deaths. Also in an another extreme climate change phenomenon during 2005 - 2006,causing heavy rains and flooding situation in the South Asia - Europe and Pacific region ,more than 100 million population in these regions are witnessing the social- economical and ecological risks and impacts due to climate changes and Geohazards. For mitigating geo-disasters, marine hazards and rehabilitation during post tsunami period, scientific knowledge is needed, requiring experienced research communities who can train the local population during tsunami rehabilitation. Several civil society institutions jointly started the initiatives on the problem identifications in management of risks in geo-disasters, tsunami rehabilitation ,Vulnerability and risk assessments for Geohazards etc., to investigate problems related to social-economic and ecological risks and management issues resulting from the December tsunami and Geo- disaster, to aid mitigation planning in affected areas and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable and economic solutions. The poster aims to assess the potential risk and hazard , technical issues, problems and damage arising from Tsunami in the Asia-pacific region in coastal geology, coastal ecosystems and coastal environmental systems . This poster deals with the status and issues of interactions between Human and Ocean Systems, Geo-risks, marine risks along coastal region of Asia- Pacific and also human influence on the earth system . The poster presentation focuses on capacity building of the local population, scientists and researchers for integration of human and ocean

Distant and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Influences Governing Integrated Water Vapor Transport and the Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events

Science.gov (United States)

Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.

2017-12-01

This presentation will show how the evolution of the large-scale and regional-scale atmospheric circulation contributes to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). An EPE requires that tropospheric moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the associated removal of hydrometeors be balanced by moisture replenishment via integrated (water) vapor transport (IVT) to continuously replenish condensed moisture. Moisture source regions may be distant or regional. Distant moisture sources may require the interaction of lower- and upper-level jet streams with a pre-existing mobile atmospheric disturbance to produce sufficient lift to condense moisture. Pre-existing regional moisture sources may require frontal lifting the presence of MFC to condense moisture. In cases of long-range IVT, such as moisture from a western North Pacific typhoon being drawn poleward along an atmospheric river (AR) toward the west coast of North America, moisture may be transported 1000s of kilometers along a low-level jet before a combination of dynamic and orographic lift results in an EPE. Alternatively, in the case of a typical summer warm and humid air mass over the continental United States, unused moisture may exist for several days in this air mass before sufficient MFC associated with a thermally direct mesoscale frontal circulation can concentrate and condense the moisture. In this case, there may be no long-range IVT via ARs. Instead, the atmospheric circulations may evolve to produce sustained MFC associated with mesoscale frontal circulations, especially in the presence of complex terrain, to produce an EPE. During this presentation, examples of EPEs associated with long-range IVT and distant MFC versus EPEs associated with regional MFC and mesoscale frontal circulations will be illustrated.

Controlling spatio-temporal extreme events by decreasing the localized energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Lin; Xu Wei; Li Zhanguo; Zhou Bingchang

2011-01-01

The problem of controlling extreme events in spatially extended dynamical systems is investigated in this Letter. Based on observations of the system state, the control technique we proposed locally decreases the spatial energy of the amplitude in the vicinity of the highest burst, without needs of any knowledge or prediction of the system model. Considering the specific Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, we provide theoretical analysis for designing the localized state feedback controller. More exactly, a simple control law by varying a damping parameter at control region is chose to achieve the control. Numerical simulations and statistic analysis demonstrate that extreme events can be efficiently suppressed by our strategy. In particular, the cost of the control and the tolerant time delay in applying the control is considered in detail. - Highlights: → We propose a local control scheme to suppress spatio-temporal extreme events. → The control is address by decreasing the spatial energy of the system locally. → The detail control law is to apply localized state feedback based on observations. → The cost of the control increases with the size of the control region exponentially. → The tolerant delay of the control is about 5-6 times of lifetime of extreme events.

Spontaneous onset of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Rooij, A.M.; Perez, R.S.G.M.; Huygen, F.J.; van Eijs, F.; van Kleef, M.; Bauer, M.C.R.; van Hilten, J.J.; Marinus, J.

2010-01-01

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) usually develops after a noxious event, but spontaneous onsets have been described in 3-11% of the cases. The existence of spontaneous-onset CRPS is highly debated and the aim of the present study was therefore to compare the phenotypic characteristics of CRPS

Global predictability of temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, M.

2018-01-01

Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * regional climate models * extremes * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0

[Autologous transfusion of UV-irradiated blood in the complex treatment of children with dysplasia of deep veins of the extremities].

Science.gov (United States)

Levanovich, V V; Kupatadze, D D; Endzhibadze, Iu G; Nabokov, V V; Mazurova, E V; Ivanov, A P; Chirovich, M

1991-02-01

Under examination there were 12 patients aged from 5 till 14 years. An investigation of hemostatic potential of blood in the diseased extremity and peripheral blood was performed. A mosaic character of blood coagulative alterations in this category of patients was detected. Autotransfusion of UV-irradiated blood is a pathogenetically grounded and accessible method of correction of hemocoagulation and may be included in the complex treatment of patients with dysplasia of the profound veins of lower extremities.

Active regions, ch. 7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martres, M.J.; Bruzek, A.

1977-01-01

The solar Active Region is an extremely complex phenomenon comprising a large variety of features (active,region phenomena) in the photosphere, chromosphere and corona. The occurrence of the various active phenomena depends on the phase and state of evolution of the AR; their appearance depends on the radiation used for the observation. The various phenomena are described and illustrated with photographs. Several paragraphs are dedicated to magnetic classification of AR, Mt. Wilson Spot Classification, solar activity indices, and solar activity data publications

Brain in complex regional pain syndrome

OpenAIRE

Hotta, Jaakko

2017-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) causes disabling and severe limb pain that is difficult to treat. The pain typically increases during motor actions, but is present also at rest. The pathophysiology of CRPS is incompletely understood. Some of the symptoms suggest involvement of the central nervous system, and accordingly, patients have been shown to display alterations in, for instance, the primary sensorimotor cortex (SM1) and indications of neuroinflammation. More thorough pathophysiol...

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

COMPLEX REGIONAL PAIN SYNDROME: AN UPDATE

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Patta

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Complex Regional Pain Syndrome or CRPS is a chronic disabling heterogenous pain disorder due to trauma, resulting in sensory changes, motor function impairment, psychological changes. Diagnosis is based on clinical features and investigations. The patho - physiology is not clearly known. There is no single drug therapy, only combinations work. Treatment is multidisplinary involving medical, psychological and rehabi li tation. Newer modes of spinal cord stimulations, neuraxial mode of analgesics and newe r drugs are promising

Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in Dobrogea region, Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Buta, Constantin; Maftei, Carmen

2015-04-01

Over time, Dobrogea territory has faced with fluctuations more or less severe in terms of basic parameters such as temperature, precipitations and annual discharges of rivers. It is highlighted the trend of aridity in the area, because of the fact that Dobrogea receives small amounts of water, ranging between 200-450 mm/year, with annual average temperatures lying around and above the average of 11°C. This fact is also proceeding from the many studies realized by other researchers. For this area there are also characteristic torrents (form of rainfall during the summer), the storms and floods accompanying these torrents of water on the narrow valleys, often intermittent, sometimes causing significant damage and even fatalities. Torrential rainfalls and flash floods are sometimes very strong and produce catastrophic damages, as happened at Constanta (in 2001), at Tulcea (in 13.07.2004 and in 29.08.2004), at Tuzla, Pantelimon, Agigea and others. At the opposite pole of the sporadic excess rainfall is drought, which is the largest meteorological phenomenon (both in time and in space) and the most obvious in Dobrogea climate. Drought represents the main argument of semi aridity of this region and the most visible image component which is observed by the inhabitants of this environment. Correlation and study of hydro-meteorological extremes is performed using indices that take into account meteorological and hydrological parameters such as precipitations, temperature, discharges of rivers etc. Hydro-meteorological indices used for this study are: Angot rainfall index; Peguy Climograms; de Martonne drought index; Thornthwaite index Moduli coefficients and Deciles. According to the studied indices, for the accomplishment of this present paper, we can say that Dobrogea is among the driest regions in the country. History of drought in Romania includes many dry years, of which are mentioned: 1894, 1888, 1904, 1918, 1934, 1945, but the droughts years with greater durations

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

Science.gov (United States)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

2012-01-01

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

2001-01-01

We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B; Bugge, Katrine

2018-01-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions...... with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring...... or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex...

Assessing the Adequacy of Probability Distributions for Estimating the Extreme Events of Air Temperature in Dabaa Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

2015-01-01

Assessing the adequacy of probability distributions for estimating the extreme events of air temperature in Dabaa region is one of the pre-requisite s for any design purpose at Dabaa site which can be achieved by probability approach. In the present study, three extreme value distributions are considered and compared to estimate the extreme events of monthly and annual maximum and minimum temperature. These distributions include the Gumbel/Frechet distributions for estimating the extreme maximum values and Gumbel /Weibull distributions for estimating the extreme minimum values. Lieblein technique and Method of Moments are applied for estimating the distribution para meters. Subsequently, the required design values with a given return period of exceedance are obtained. Goodness-of-Fit tests involving Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling are used for checking the adequacy of fitting the method/distribution for the estimation of maximum/minimum temperature. Mean Absolute Relative Deviation, Root Mean Square Error and Relative Mean Square Deviation are calculated, as the performance indicators, to judge which distribution and method of parameters estimation are the most appropriate one to estimate the extreme temperatures. The present study indicated that the Weibull distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators gives the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions for estimating the extreme monthly and annual minimum temperature. The Gumbel distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators showed the highest fit, accurate predictions for the estimation of the extreme monthly and annual maximum temperature except for July, August, October and November. The study shows that the combination of Frechet distribution with Method of Moment is the most accurate for estimating the extreme maximum temperature in July, August and November months while t he Gumbel distribution and Lieblein technique is the best for October

Abnormal thalamocortical activity in patients with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) type I.

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, K D; Dubois, M; Llinás, R R

2010-07-01

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a neuropathic disease that presents a continuing challenge in terms of pathophysiology, diagnosis, and treatment. Recent studies of neuropathic pain, in both animals and patients, have established a direct relationship between abnormal thalamic rhythmicity related to Thalamo-cortical Dysrhythmia (TCD) and the occurrence of central pain. Here, this relationship has been examined using magneto-encephalographic (MEG) imaging in CRPS Type I, characterized by the absence of nerve lesions. The study addresses spontaneous MEG activity from 13 awake, adult patients (2 men, 11 women; age 15-62), with CRPS Type I of one extremity (duration range: 3months to 10years) and from 13 control subjects. All CRPS I patients demonstrated peaks in power spectrum in the delta (CRPS Type I patients presented abnormal brain activity typical of TCD, which has both diagnostic value indicating a central origin for this ailment and a potential treatment interest involving pharmacological and electrical stimulation therapies. Copyright 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased endothelin-1 and diminished nitric oxide levels in blister fluids of patients with intermediate cold type complex regional pain syndrome type 1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niehof Sjoerd

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In complex regional pain syndrome type 1 (CRPS1 pro-inflammatory mediators and vascular changes play an important role in the sustained development and outcome of the disease. The aim of this study was to determine the involvement of vasoactive substances endothelin-1 (ET-1 and nitric oxide (NO during early chronic CRPS1. Methods Included were 29 patients with CRPS 1 who were diagnosed during the acute stage of their disease and observed during follow-up visits. Disease activity and impairment were determined and artificial suction blisters were made on the CRPS1 and the contralateral extremities for measurements of IL-6, TNF-α, ET-1 and nitrate/nitrite (NOx. Results The levels of IL-6, TNF-α and ET-1 in blister fluid in the CRPS1 extremity versus the contralateral extremity were significantly increased and correlated with each other, whereas NOx levels were decreased. Conclusion The NOx/ET-1 ratio appears to be disturbed in the intermediate stage of CRPS, resulting in vasoconstriction and consequently in a diminished tissue blood distribution.

Neuroimmune Alterations in the Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

F.J.P.M. Huygen (Frank)

2004-01-01

textabstractComplex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a disease which occurs as a complication after surgery or trauma, although spontaneous development is described. CRPS is characterized by continuing pain, sensory and vasomotor, sudomotor, motor and trophic disturbances. Many of these symptoms are

Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

2012-01-01

Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

Conformational changes in the bilirubin-human serum albumin complex at extreme alkaline pH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Honoré, B; Frandsen, P C

1986-01-01

Light-absorption, c.d. and fluorescence of the bilirubin-albumin complex were investigated at extreme alkaline pH. Above pH 11.1 albumin binds the bilirubin molecule, twisted oppositely to the configuration at more neutral pH. On the basis of light-absorption it is shown that two alkaline...... transitions occur. The first alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.3 and 11.8, co-operatively dissociating at least six protons. The second alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.8 and 12.0. It probably implies a reversible unfolding of the albumin molecule, increasing the distance...

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biros, George [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2018-01-12

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a

Optimizing velocities and transports for complex coastal regions and archipelagos

OpenAIRE

Haley, Patrick; Agarwal, Arpit; Lermusiaux, Pierre

2015-01-01

We derive and apply a methodology for the initialization of velocity and transport fields in complex multiply-connected regions with multiscale dynamics. The result is initial fields that are consistent with observations, complex geometry and dynamics, and that can simulate the evolution of ocean processes without large spurious initial transients. A class of constrained weighted least squares optimizations is defined to best fit first-guess velocities while satisfying the complex bathymetry,...

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Heterogeneous convergence of regional house prices and the complexity in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Lin

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to analyze the convergence of regional house prices and its complexity in China. In this purpose it used nonlinear time varying factor model. The obtained results have provided evidences for the existence of some degree of segmentation in China’s housing market. By further dynamic analysis of the convergence, we have found that important housing policies from Chinese central government can significantly alter the housing market but with a time lag of 4 to 5 months, and that quite different behaviors exist between the new house market and the second-hand house market in China, which provides the evidence for the complexity of housing market in China. Multiple factors together are the driving forces for the regional house price convergence. And the driving forces differ among three clubs. The basic conclusion provided from the realized research is that the conventional definitions of economic regions may not be appropriate to analyze house price segregation in China. Heterogeneous convergence exists in China’s regional house prices, indicating the complexity of regional house prices in China. And housing policies should be implemented with different focus among the regions. The way of the central government is to make housing policies aiming at different sub-markets of the new house market and the second-hand house market.

Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

Science.gov (United States)

Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

2016-04-01

Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

2015-08-15

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

On synchronized regions of discrete-time complex dynamical networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan Zhisheng; Chen Guanrong

2011-01-01

In this paper, the local synchronization of discrete-time complex networks is studied. First, it is shown that for any natural number n, there exists a discrete-time network which has at least left floor n/2 right floor +1 disconnected synchronized regions for local synchronization, which implies the possibility of intermittent synchronization behaviors. Different from the continuous-time networks, the existence of an unbounded synchronized region is impossible for discrete-time networks. The convexity of the synchronized regions is also characterized based on the stability of a class of matrix pencils, which is useful for enlarging the stability region so as to improve the network synchronizability.

Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

2017-12-01

We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

Extremes in random fields a theory and its applications

CERN Document Server

Yakir, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Presents a useful new technique for analyzing the extreme-value behaviour of random fields Modern science typically involves the analysis of increasingly complex data. The extreme values that emerge in the statistical analysis of complex data are often of particular interest. This book focuses on the analytical approximations of the statistical significance of extreme values. Several relatively complex applications of the technique to problems that emerge in practical situations are presented.  All the examples are difficult to analyze using classical methods, and as a result, the author pr

Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Schwab

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questions after extreme events, namely, ‘can we blame it on climate change’ and is assumed to support decision-making of various actors engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation. More in-depth research is widely lacking about who these actors are; in which context they can make use of it; and what requirements they have, to be able to actually apply Extreme Event Attribution. We have therefore addressed these questions with two empirical case studies looking at regional decision-makers who deal with storm surge risks in the German Baltic Sea region and heat waves in the Greater Paris area. Stakeholder interviews and workshops reveal that fields of application and requirements are diverse, difficult to explicitly identify, and often clearly associated with stakeholders' specific mandate, the hazard background, and the regional socio-economic setting. Among the considered stakeholders in the Baltic Sea region, Extreme Event Attribution is perceived to be most useful to awareness-raising, in particular for climate change mitigation. They emphasised the importance of receiving understandable information - and that, rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than faster, but with higher uncertainties. In the Paris case, we typically talked to people engaged in adaptation with expertise in terms of climate science, but narrowly defined mandates which is typical for the Paris-centred political system with highly specialised public experts. The interviewees claimed that Extreme Event Attribution is most useful to political leverage and public

Isolation of a cosmid sublibrary for a region of chromosome 12 frequently amplified in human cancers using a complex chromosome microdissection probe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elkahloun, A.G.; Meltzer, P.S.; Guan, Xin-Yuan [National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States)] [and others

1996-02-01

Chromosome-specific cosmid libraries are in extremely useful resource for positional cloning projects. Once a particular region of interest has been identified, it would be of value to have an approach for isolating chromosome band-specific cosmids that could be assembled into a sublibrary for rapid screening. We constructed a region-specific sublibrary of 700 cosmids by screening a chromosome 12-specific cosmid library with a complex probe generated by degenerate oligonucleotide-primed PCR of a microdissected homogeneously staining region containing sequences amplified from chromosome 12q13-q15. Based on fluorescence in situ hybridization, approximately 60% of the cosmids in the sublibrary were derived from the microdissected region. To demonstrate further the utility of the sublibrary, a 150-kb contig containing the SAS and CDK4 genes was constructed, as well as several additional contigs between CDK4 and MDM2. This study demonstrates the possibility of utilizing probes generated by microdissection for assembling band-specific libraries that are amendable to rapid screening with multiple markers.

Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of

Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

2014-01-01

As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

Formation of competitive potential of the machine-building complex of the region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Ivanovich Botkin

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article describes the features of competitive potential of regional machine-building complex in a globalized world economy. The purpose of the research is the development of theoretically reasonable economic basis of the machine-building complex considering  the  features of business in the conditions of the WTO. In the work, the hypothesis of a special role of the external economic factors locates in development of the enterprises of regional industrial complexes. The study of the theoretical provisions defining the development of the region revealed the factors determining influence of the international trade agreements on spatial localization of the industry. The main attention is paid to an analytical assessment of the current state and the trends, which have developed in the period of post-crisis economic recovery. Analysis of the main indicators of attractiveness has revealed the weak position of local industrial enterprises in the WTO. The directions of strengthening of the competitive capacity of the local industrial enterprises are defined. The obtained results allow us to increase the sustainability of the industry by means of effective management mechanism improvements and to create favorable operating conditions of a machine-building complex of the region

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

Science.gov (United States)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B.; Bugge, Katrine; Kissling, Vera M.; Heidarsson, Pétur O.; Fernandes, Catarina B.; Sottini, Andrea; Soranno, Andrea; Buholzer, Karin J.; Nettels, Daniel; Kragelund, Birthe B.; Best, Robert B.; Schuler, Benjamin

2018-03-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring defined binding sites or interactions between specific individual residues. Proteome-wide sequence analysis suggests that this interaction mechanism may be abundant in eukaryotes.

GBA manager: an online tool for querying low-complexity regions in proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandyopadhyay, Nirmalya; Kahveci, Tamer

2010-01-01

Abstract We developed GBA Manager, an online software that facilitates the Graph-Based Algorithm (GBA) we proposed in our earlier work. GBA identifies the low-complexity regions (LCR) of protein sequences. GBA exploits a similarity matrix, such as BLOSUM62, to compute the complexity of the subsequences of the input protein sequence. It uses a graph-based algorithm to accurately compute the regions that have low complexities. GBA Manager is a user friendly web-service that enables online querying of protein sequences using GBA. In addition to querying capabilities of the existing GBA algorithm, GBA Manager computes the p-values of the LCR identified. The p-value gives an estimate of the possibility that the region appears by chance. GBA Manager presents the output in three different understandable formats. GBA Manager is freely accessible at http://bioinformatics.cise.ufl.edu/GBA/GBA.htm .

Region-specific expression of mitochondrial complex I genes during murine brain development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefanie Wirtz

Full Text Available Mutations in the nuclear encoded subunits of mitochondrial complex I (NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase may cause circumscribed cerebral lesions ranging from degeneration of the striatal and brainstem gray matter (Leigh syndrome to leukodystrophy. We hypothesized that such pattern of regional pathology might be due to local differences in the dependence on complex I function. Using in situ hybridization we investigated the relative expression of 33 nuclear encoded complex I subunits in different brain regions of the mouse at E11.5, E17.5, P1, P11, P28 and adult (12 weeks. With respect to timing and relative intensity of complex I gene expression we found a highly variant pattern in different regions during development. High average expression levels were detected in periods of intense neurogenesis. In cerebellar Purkinje and in hippocampal CA1/CA3 pyramidal neurons we found a second even higher peak during the period of synaptogenesis and maturation. The extraordinary dependence of these structures on complex I gene expression during synaptogenesis is in accord with our recent findings that gamma oscillations--known to be associated with higher cognitive functions of the mammalian brain--strongly depend on the complex I activity. However, with the exception of the mesencephalon, we detected only average complex I expression levels in the striatum and basal ganglia, which does not explain the exquisite vulnerability of these structures in mitochondrial disorders.

A case of complex regional pain syndrome with agnosia for object orientation.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Gail; Cohen, Helen; Goebel, Andreas

2011-07-01

This systematic investigation of the neurocognitive correlates of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) in a single case also reports agnosia for object orientation in the context of persistent CRPS. We report a patient (JW) with severe long-standing CRPS who had no difficulty identifying and naming line drawings of objects presented in 1 of 4 cardinal orientations. In contrast, he was extremely poor at reorienting these objects into the correct upright orientation and in judging whether an object was upright or not. Moreover, JW made orientation errors when copying drawings of objects, and he also showed features of mirror reversal in writing single words and reading single letters. The findings are discussed in relation to accounts of visual processing. Agnosia for object orientation is the term for impaired knowledge of an object's orientation despite good recognition and naming of the same misoriented object. This defect has previously only been reported in patients with major structural brain lesions. The neuroanatomical correlates are discussed. The patient had no structural brain lesion, raising the possibility that nonstructural reorganisation of cortical networks may be responsible for his deficits. Other patients with CRPS may have related neurocognitive defects. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

Land use/cover changes, extreme events and ecohydrological responses in the Himalayan region

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, R. B.

1998-10-01

Land use describes human activities on the earth, and forms a major element of the terrestrial ecosystem modified by humans in the Himalayan region, where developmental activities are increasing rapidly to support the tourism infrastructure. The unprecedented growth in population is putting extremely high pressure on the limited land available for cultivation. Land use and agricultural practices have undergone drastic changes since the mid-1960s through the introduction of development programmes and the application of various newly developed techniques in agrosciences. An analysis of the land use as it has occurred over the last 70 years suggests that it and property rights in the Upper Beas Basin are complex and dynamic. For example, people are giving importance to orchards because of their high profitability. Thus, some agricultural land has been encroached on by orchards. In addition, wastelands are now being used by people for orchards, agriculture and residential and commercial building. Since the Upper Beas River Basin is mountainous, it is fragile and prone to processes like soil erosion, slope instability, landslides and floods. Risks from natural hazards are increasing. However, the state of ecohydrological responses highlight that human-induced ecological changes can be largely proved at the microwatershed level. The findings are not extended to the Himalayan scale. There is also an uncertain correlation between anthropogenic activities (deforestation) in the mountains and hazards in the plains such as floods. Owing to a lack of basic research, there is little effective information which cannot be used for long-term effective monitoring of ecological and hydrological responses to global change. Such an uncertain situation calls for integrated watershed management and development using geographical information systems (GISs).

Intravenous regional block is similar to sympathetic ganglion block for pain management in patients with complex regional pain syndrome type I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.S.A. Nascimento

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Sympathetic ganglion block (SGB or intravenous regional block (IVRB has been recommended for pain management in patients with complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS-I. Forty-five patients were initially selected but only 43 were accepted for the study. The present study evaluated the efficacy of IVRB produced by combining 70 mg lidocaine with 30 µg clonidine (14 patients, 1 male/13 females, age range: 27-50 years versus SGB produced by the injection of 70 mg lidocaine alone (14 patients, 1 male/13 females, age range: 27-54 years or combined with 30 µg clonidine (15 patients, 1 male/14 females, age range: 25-50 years into the stellate ganglion for pain management in patients with upper extremity CRPS-I. Each procedure was repeated five times at 7-day intervals, and pain intensity and duration were measured using a visual analog scale immediately before each procedure. A progressive and significant reduction in pain scores and a significant increase in the duration of analgesia were observed in all groups following the first three blocks, but no further improvement was obtained following the last two blocks. Drowsiness, the most frequent side effect, and dry mouth occurred only in patients submitted to SGB with lidocaine combined with clonidine. The three methods were similar regarding changes in pain intensity and duration of analgesia. However, IVRB seems to be preferable to SGB due to its easier execution and lower risk of undesirable effects.

Opportunities and constraints for improved water resources management under increasing hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events on global and regional water resources is therefore crucial for quantifying increasing risks from climate change. The quest for water security has been a struggle throughout human history. Only in recent years has the scale of this quest moved beyond the local, to the national and regional scales and to the planet itself. Absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation and irrigation services, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments severely impact half of the planet's population. The scale and complexity of the water challenges faced by society, particularly but not only in the world's poorest regions, are now recognized, as is the imperative of overcoming these challenges for a stable and equitable world. IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFAS) is an unprecedented inter-disciplinary scientific initiative to identify robust and adaptive portfolios of optional solutions across different economic sectors, including agriculture, energy and industry, and to test these solution-portfolios with multi-model ensembles of hydrologic and sector models to obtain a clearer picture of the trade-offs, risks, and opportunities. The results of WFaS scenarios and models provide a basis for long-term strategic planning of water resource development under changing environments and increasing climate extremes. And given the complexity of the water system, WFaS uniquely provides policy makers with optional sets of solutions that work together and that can be easily adapted as circumstances change in the future. As WFaS progresses, it will establish a network involving information exchange, mutual learning and horizontal cooperation across teams of researchers, public and private decision makers and practitioners exploring solutions at regional, national and local

Methods for deconvoluting and interpreting complex gamma- and x-ray spectral regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunnink, R.

1983-06-01

Germanium and silicon detectors are now widely used for the detection and measurement of x and gamma radiation. However, some analysis situations and spectral regions have heretofore been too complex to deconvolute and interpret by techniques in general use. One example is the L x-ray spectrum of an element taken with a Ge or Si detector. This paper describes some new tools and methods that were developed to analyze complex spectral regions; they are illustrated with examples

How do the multiple large-scale climate oscillations trigger extreme precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Pengfei; Yang, Tao; Xu, Chong-Yu; Yong, Bin; Shao, Quanxi; Li, Zhenya; Wang, Xiaoyan; Zhou, Xudong; Li, Shu

2017-10-01

Identifying the links between variations in large-scale climate patterns and precipitation is of tremendous assistance in characterizing surplus or deficit of precipitation, which is especially important for evaluation of local water resources and ecosystems in semi-humid and semi-arid regions. Restricted by current limited knowledge on underlying mechanisms, statistical correlation methods are often used rather than physical based model to characterize the connections. Nevertheless, available correlation methods are generally unable to reveal the interactions among a wide range of climate oscillations and associated effects on precipitation, especially on extreme precipitation. In this work, a probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution is developed to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation. This method is employed to identify the complex connections between climate patterns (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) and seasonal precipitation over a typical semi-humid and semi-arid region, the Haihe River Basin in China. Results show that the interactions among multiple climate oscillations are non-uniform in most seasons and phases. Certain joint extreme phases can significantly trigger extreme precipitation (flood and drought) owing to the amplification effect among climate oscillations.

Quantifying enhancement in aerosol radiative forcing during 'extreme aerosol days' in summer at Delhi National Capital Region, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Sumant; Dey, Sagnik; Srivastava, Arun

2016-04-15

Changes in aerosol characteristics (spectral aerosol optical depth, AOD and composition) are examined during the transition from 'relatively clean' to 'extreme' aerosol days in the summer of 2012 at Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), India. AOD smaller than 0.54 (i.e. 12-year mean AOD-1σ) represents 'relatively clean' days in Delhi during the summer. 'Extreme' days are defined by the condition when AOD0.5 exceeds 12-year mean AOD+1 standard deviation (σ). Mean (±1σ) AOD increases to 1.2±0.12 along with a decrease of Angstrom Exponent from 0.54±0.09 to 0.22±0.12 during the 'extreme' days. Aerosol composition is inferred by fixing the number concentrations of various individual species through iterative tweaking when simulated (following Mie theory) AOD spectrum matches with the measured one. Contribution of coarse mode dust to aerosol mass increased from 76.8% (relatively clean) to 96.8% (extreme events), while the corresponding contributions to AOD0.5 increased from 35.0% to 70.8%. Spectrally increasing single scattering albedo (SSA) and CALIPSO aerosol sub-type information support the dominant presence of dust during the 'extreme' aerosol days. Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases from 21.2Wm(-2) (relatively clean) to 56.6Wm(-2) (extreme), while the corresponding change in surface ADRF is from -99.5Wm(-2) to -153.5Wm(-2). Coarse mode dust contributes 60.3% of the observed surface ADRF during the 'extreme' days. On the contrary, 0.4% mass fraction of black carbon (BC) translates into 13.1% contribution to AOD0.5 and 33.5% to surface ADRF during the 'extreme' days. The atmospheric heating rate increased by 75.1% from 1.7K/day to 2.96K/day during the 'extreme' days. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem services provided by a complex coastal region: challenges of classification and mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Lisa P.; Sousa, Ana I.; Alves, Fátima L.; Lillebø, Ana I.

2016-03-01

A variety of ecosystem services classification systems and mapping approaches are available in the scientific and technical literature, which needs to be selected and adapted when applied to complex territories (e.g. in the interface between water and land, estuary and sea). This paper provides a framework for addressing ecosystem services in complex coastal regions. The roadmap comprises the definition of the exact geographic boundaries of the study area; the use of CICES (Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services) for ecosystem services identification and classification; and the definition of qualitative indicators that will serve as basis to map the ecosystem services. Due to its complexity, the Ria de Aveiro coastal region was selected as case study, presenting an opportunity to explore the application of such approaches at a regional scale. The main challenges of implementing the proposed roadmap, together with its advantages are discussed in this research. The results highlight the importance of considering both the connectivity of natural systems and the complexity of the governance framework; the flexibility and robustness, but also the challenges when applying CICES at regional scale; and the challenges regarding ecosystem services mapping.

Ecosystem services provided by a complex coastal region: challenges of classification and mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Lisa P; Sousa, Ana I; Alves, Fátima L; Lillebø, Ana I

2016-03-11

A variety of ecosystem services classification systems and mapping approaches are available in the scientific and technical literature, which needs to be selected and adapted when applied to complex territories (e.g. in the interface between water and land, estuary and sea). This paper provides a framework for addressing ecosystem services in complex coastal regions. The roadmap comprises the definition of the exact geographic boundaries of the study area; the use of CICES (Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services) for ecosystem services identification and classification; and the definition of qualitative indicators that will serve as basis to map the ecosystem services. Due to its complexity, the Ria de Aveiro coastal region was selected as case study, presenting an opportunity to explore the application of such approaches at a regional scale. The main challenges of implementing the proposed roadmap, together with its advantages are discussed in this research. The results highlight the importance of considering both the connectivity of natural systems and the complexity of the governance framework; the flexibility and robustness, but also the challenges when applying CICES at regional scale; and the challenges regarding ecosystem services mapping.

Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

2018-02-01

The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

[Complex regional pain syndrome type 1: negating the myth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frolke, J.P.M.; Dongen, R.T.M. van; Meent, H. van de

2015-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome type 1 (CRPS-1) was identified in the Netherlands more than 30 years ago, but since then the arguments supporting this diagnosis have become weaker. Incidence has decreased, it is often not possible to make a definite diagnosis, the pathophysiology remains unclear and

Contribution of Large Region Joint Associations to Complex Traits Genetics

Science.gov (United States)

Paré, Guillaume; Asma, Senay; Deng, Wei Q.

2015-01-01

A polygenic model of inheritance, whereby hundreds or thousands of weakly associated variants contribute to a trait’s heritability, has been proposed to underlie the genetic architecture of complex traits. However, relatively few genetic variants have been positively identified so far and they collectively explain only a small fraction of the predicted heritability. We hypothesized that joint association of multiple weakly associated variants over large chromosomal regions contributes to complex traits variance. Confirmation of such regional associations can help identify new loci and lead to a better understanding of known ones. To test this hypothesis, we first characterized the ability of commonly used genetic association models to identify large region joint associations. Through theoretical derivation and simulation, we showed that multivariate linear models where multiple SNPs are included as independent predictors have the most favorable association profile. Based on these results, we tested for large region association with height in 3,740 European participants from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) study. Adjusting for SNPs with known association with height, we demonstrated clustering of weak associations (p = 2x10-4) in regions extending up to 433.0 Kb from known height loci. The contribution of regional associations to phenotypic variance was estimated at 0.172 (95% CI 0.063-0.279; p < 0.001), which compared favorably to 0.129 explained by known height variants. Conversely, we showed that suggestively associated regions are enriched for known height loci. To extend our findings to other traits, we also tested BMI, HDLc and CRP for large region associations, with consistent results for CRP. Our results demonstrate the presence of large region joint associations and suggest these can be used to pinpoint weakly associated SNPs. PMID:25856144

Comparison of regional index flood estimation procedures based on the extreme value type I distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding; Rosbjerg, Dan

2002-01-01

the prediction uncertainty and that the presence of intersite correlation tends to increase the uncertainty. A simulation study revealed that in regional index-flood estimation the method of probability weighted moments is preferable to method of moment estimation with regard to bias and RMSE.......A comparison of different methods for estimating T-year events is presented, all based on the Extreme Value Type I distribution. Series of annual maximum flood from ten gauging stations at the New Zealand South island have been used. Different methods of predicting the 100-year event...... and the connected uncertainty have been applied: At-site estimation and regional index-flood estimation with and without accounting for intersite correlation using either the method of moments or the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation. Furthermore, estimation at ungauged sites were...

The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-04-01

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. T. Taye

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

Determination of haplotypes at structurally complex regions using emulsion haplotype fusion PCR.

Science.gov (United States)

Tyson, Jess; Armour, John A L

2012-12-11

Genotyping and massively-parallel sequencing projects result in a vast amount of diploid data that is only rarely resolved into its constituent haplotypes. It is nevertheless this phased information that is transmitted from one generation to the next and is most directly associated with biological function and the genetic causes of biological effects. Despite progress made in genome-wide sequencing and phasing algorithms and methods, problems assembling (and reconstructing linear haplotypes in) regions of repetitive DNA and structural variation remain. These dynamic and structurally complex regions are often poorly understood from a sequence point of view. Regions such as these that are highly similar in their sequence tend to be collapsed onto the genome assembly. This is turn means downstream determination of the true sequence haplotype in these regions poses a particular challenge. For structurally complex regions, a more focussed approach to assembling haplotypes may be required. In order to investigate reconstruction of spatial information at structurally complex regions, we have used an emulsion haplotype fusion PCR approach to reproducibly link sequences of up to 1kb in length to allow phasing of multiple variants from neighbouring loci, using allele-specific PCR and sequencing to detect the phase. By using emulsion systems linking flanking regions to amplicons within the CNV, this led to the reconstruction of a 59kb haplotype across the DEFA1A3 CNV in HapMap individuals. This study has demonstrated a novel use for emulsion haplotype fusion PCR in addressing the issue of reconstructing structural haplotypes at multiallelic copy variable regions, using the DEFA1A3 locus as an example.

Determination of haplotypes at structurally complex regions using emulsion haplotype fusion PCR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tyson Jess

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genotyping and massively-parallel sequencing projects result in a vast amount of diploid data that is only rarely resolved into its constituent haplotypes. It is nevertheless this phased information that is transmitted from one generation to the next and is most directly associated with biological function and the genetic causes of biological effects. Despite progress made in genome-wide sequencing and phasing algorithms and methods, problems assembling (and reconstructing linear haplotypes in regions of repetitive DNA and structural variation remain. These dynamic and structurally complex regions are often poorly understood from a sequence point of view. Regions such as these that are highly similar in their sequence tend to be collapsed onto the genome assembly. This is turn means downstream determination of the true sequence haplotype in these regions poses a particular challenge. For structurally complex regions, a more focussed approach to assembling haplotypes may be required. Results In order to investigate reconstruction of spatial information at structurally complex regions, we have used an emulsion haplotype fusion PCR approach to reproducibly link sequences of up to 1kb in length to allow phasing of multiple variants from neighbouring loci, using allele-specific PCR and sequencing to detect the phase. By using emulsion systems linking flanking regions to amplicons within the CNV, this led to the reconstruction of a 59kb haplotype across the DEFA1A3 CNV in HapMap individuals. Conclusion This study has demonstrated a novel use for emulsion haplotype fusion PCR in addressing the issue of reconstructing structural haplotypes at multiallelic copy variable regions, using the DEFA1A3 locus as an example.

Reflex sympathetic dystrophy/complex regional pain syndrome, type 1

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Enrique

with MRI every 3 months and the bone marrow oedema disappeared after 6 months. Introduction ... SA JOURNAL OF RADIOLOGY • August 2004. Reflex sympathetic dystrophy/complex regional pain syndrome, type 1 ... may be either trauma of external origin or iatrogenic, post surgery. In some patients particularly children ...

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Priority Directions of The Regional Food Complex Effectiveness Increase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry Andreyevich Karkh

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the article, the modern trends of management integration as a solution of food and sectoral problems are considered. On the basis of national and foreign experience of development of integration, the classification of integration in economic systems is developed. On the basis of the given classification, the concept of integration is conducted. In the article, much attention is given to the food problem solution, which depends more on the agro-industrial complex based on metaintegration. The leading place of a food complex in the system of agro-industrial complex is caused by a role of food and food raw materials in life of the population of the country. The ratio of the sectors participating in the food production and consumer goods makes the sectoral structure of agro-industrial complex. In the conditions of the resource limitation necessary for the production and food delivery to the domestic market, the role of trade will increase not only in agro-industrial complex, but in all national economy. Also, in this article, the phenomenon of clusters is studied. The attention to clusters as to innovation systems reflects a rising tide of interest of economic science to the questions of economics functioning in regional level and understanding of a role of specific local resources in stimulation of innovative opportunities and competitiveness of small and medium business. Creating a cluster, participants develop the spatial and organizational integrated structure, in interaction of legal entities the status is saved and cooperation provides competitive advantages with other business entities. The role of the state in integration of cluster formations in the Russian Federation is more significant, than in any other country. The state represented by regional authorities actively participates in decision-making process by the business located in its catchment area not only through membership in governing bodies of large joint stock companies.

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN Jian-Qi

2012-01-01

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

Science.gov (United States)

Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

2014-12-01

Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

2017-04-01

Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

New Concepts in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Tajerian, Maral; Clark, J David

2015-01-01

SYNOPSIS Despite the severe pain and disability associated with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS), our lack of understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms supporting this enigmatic condition prevents the rational design of new therapies, a situation that is frustrating both to the physician and the patient. The following review will highlight some of the mechanisms thought to be involved in the pathophysiology of CRPS in preclinical models and CRPS patients, with the ultimate goal that understanding these mechanisms will lead to the design of efficacious, mechanism-based treatments available to the clinic. PMID:26611388

Changes of precipitation and extremes and the possible effect of urbanization in the Beijing metropolitan region during 1960-2012 based on homogenized observations

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Wu, Hongyi

2015-09-01

Daily precipitation series at 15 stations in the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) during 1960-2012 were homogenized using the multiple analysis of series for homogenization method, with additional adjustments based on analysis of empirical cumulative density function (ECDF) regarding climate extremes. The cumulative density functions of daily precipitation series, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation, and summer extreme events during 1960-2012 in the original and final adjusted series at Beijing station were comparatively analyzed to show the necessity and efficiency of the new method. Results indicate that the ECDF adjustments can improve the homogeneity of high-order moments of daily series and the estimation of climate trends in extremes. The linear trends of the regional-mean annual and seasonal (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) precipitation series are -10.16, 4.97, -20.04, 5.02, and -0.11 mm (10 yr)-1, respectively. The trends over the BMR increase consistently for spring/autumn and decrease for the whole year/summer; however, the trends for winter decrease in southern parts and increase in northern parts. Urbanization affects local trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity and their geographical patterns. For the urban-influenced sites, urbanization tends to slow down the magnitude of decrease in the precipitation and extreme amount series by approximately -10.4% and -6.0%, respectively; enhance the magnitude of decrease in precipitation frequency series by approximately 5.7%; reduce that of extremes by approximately -8.9%; and promote the decreasing trends in the summer intensity series of both precipitation and extremes by approximately 6.8% and 51.5%, respectively.

Possible association between serotonin transporter promoter region polymorphism and extremely violent crime in Chinese males.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Ding-Lieh; Hong, Chen-Jee; Shih, Hao-Ling; Tsai, Shih-Jen

2004-01-01

The neurotransmitter, serotonin, has been implicated in aggressive behavior. The serotonin transporter (5-HTT), which reuptakes serotonin into the nerve terminal, plays a critical role in the regulation of serotonergic function. Previous western reports have demonstrated that the low-activity short (S) allele of the 5-HTT gene-linked polymorphic-region (5-HTTLPR) polymorphism is associated with aggressive behavior and associated personality traits. In the present study, we investigated this 5-HTTLPR genetic polymorphism in a group of Chinese males who had been convicted for extremely violent crime (n = 135) and a normal control group (n = 111). The proportion of S-allele carriers was significantly higher in the criminal group than in the controls (p = 0.006). A significant association was not demonstrated for the relationship between the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and antisocial personality disorder, substance abuse or alcohol abuse in the criminal group. Our findings demonstrate that carriage of the low-activity S allele is associated with extremely violent criminal behavior in Chinese males, and suggests that the 5-HTT may be implicated in the mechanisms underlying violent behaviors.

Optimizing velocities and transports for complex coastal regions and archipelagos

Science.gov (United States)

Haley, Patrick J.; Agarwal, Arpit; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.

2015-05-01

We derive and apply a methodology for the initialization of velocity and transport fields in complex multiply-connected regions with multiscale dynamics. The result is initial fields that are consistent with observations, complex geometry and dynamics, and that can simulate the evolution of ocean processes without large spurious initial transients. A class of constrained weighted least squares optimizations is defined to best fit first-guess velocities while satisfying the complex bathymetry, coastline and divergence strong constraints. A weak constraint towards the minimum inter-island transports that are in accord with the first-guess velocities provides important velocity corrections in complex archipelagos. In the optimization weights, the minimum distance and vertical area between pairs of coasts are computed using a Fast Marching Method. Additional information on velocity and transports are included as strong or weak constraints. We apply our methodology around the Hawaiian islands of Kauai/Niihau, in the Taiwan/Kuroshio region and in the Philippines Archipelago. Comparisons with other common initialization strategies, among hindcasts from these initial conditions (ICs), and with independent in situ observations show that our optimization corrects transports, satisfies boundary conditions and redirects currents. Differences between the hindcasts from these different ICs are found to grow for at least 2-3 weeks. When compared to independent in situ observations, simulations from our optimized ICs are shown to have the smallest errors.

[Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

Science.gov (United States)

Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

2016-01-01

Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

Nuclear floating power desalination complexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panov, Y.K.; Polunichev, V.I.; Zverev, K.V.

1998-01-01

Russia is a single country in the world which possesses a powerful ice-breaker transport fleet that allows a solution of important social-economic tasks of the country's northern regions by maintaining a year-round navigation along the Arctic sea route. A total operating record of the marine nuclear reactors up until till now exceeds 150 reactor-years, with their main equipment operating life reacting 120 thousand hours. Design and constructional progresses have been made continuously during forty years of nuclear-powered ships construction in Russia. Well proven technology of all components experienced in the marine nuclear reactors give grounds to recommend marine NSSSs of KLT-40 type as energy sources for the heat and power co-generation plants and the sea water desalination complexes, particularly as a floating installation. Co-generation stations are considered for deployment in the extreme Northern Region of Russia. Nuclear floating desalination complexes can be used for drinkable water production in the coastal regions of Northern Africa, the Near East, India etc. (author)

Novel Signs and Their Clinical Utility in Diagnosing Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuttikat, Anoop; Shaikh, Maliha; Oomatia, Amin; Parker, Richard; Shenker, Nicholas

2017-06-01

Delays in diagnosis occur with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). We define and prospectively demonstrate that novel bedside tests measuring body perception disruption can identify patients with CRPS postfracture. The objectives of our study were to define and validate 4 bedside tests, to identify the prevalence of positive tests in patients with CRPS and other chronic pain conditions, and to assess the clinical utility (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) for identifying CRPS within a Fracture cohort. This was a single UK teaching hospital prospective cohort study with 313 recruits from pain-free volunteers and patients with chronic pain conditions.Four novel tests were Finger Perception (FP), Hand Laterality identification (HL), Astereognosis (AS), and Body Scheme (BS) report. Five questionnaires (Brief Pain Inventory, Upper Extremity Functional Index, Lower Extremity Functional Index, Neglect-like Symptom Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score) assessed the multidimensional pain experience. FP and BS were the best performing tests. Prospective monitoring of fracture patients showed that out of 7 fracture patients (total n=47) who had both finger misperception and abnormal BS report at initial testing, 3 developed persistent pain with 1 having a formal diagnosis of CRPS. Novel signs are reliable, easy to perform, and present in chronic pain patients. FP and BS have significant clinical utility in predicting persistent pain in a fracture group thereby allowing targeted early intervention.

Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Yufei; Wang, Yuhang; Zhang, Yuzhong; Koo, Ja-Ho

2017-03-01

The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

that the outcome of the project has been a code that is capable of predicting correct trends more often (15 out of 20) than the other ‘black box’ codes in operation at various agencies. U. N. SINHA CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

Extremism from the perspective of a system approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zinchenko, Yury P.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Extremism is seen as a complex, multilevel, and multicomponent phenomenon. The problems of modern science in understanding extremism are revealed. The following bases of extremism as a system phenomenon are singled out: social factors, latent extremism, and extremist acts. It is demonstrated that a system approach makes it possible to shape a notion of a subject as a system, to identify patterns of the manifestations of the given phenomenon, and to translate them into concrete practices.

Evidence based guidelines for complex regional pain syndrome type 1

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perez, R.S.G.M.; Zollinger, P.E.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Thomassen-Hilgersom, I.L.; Zuurmond, W.W.A.; Rosenbrand, C.J.G.M.; Geerzen, J.H.B.

2010-01-01

Background: Treatment of complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS-I) is subject to discussion. The purpose of this study was to develop multidisciplinary guidelines for treatment of CRPS-I.Method: A multidisciplinary task force graded literature evaluating treatment effects for CRPS-I according

Evidence based guidelines for complex regional pain syndrome type 1

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perez, Roberto S.; Zollinger, Paul E.; Dijkstra, Pieter U.; Thomassen-Hilgersom, Ilona L.; Zuurmond, Wouter W.; Rosenbrand, Kitty C. J.; Geertzen, Jan H.

2010-01-01

Background: Treatment of complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS-I) is subject to discussion. The purpose of this study was to develop multidisciplinary guidelines for treatment of CRPS-I. Method: A multidisciplinary task force graded literature evaluating treatment effects for CRPS-I according

Extremely stable soluble high molecular mass multi-protein complex with DNase activity in human placental tissue.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgeniya E Burkova

Full Text Available Human placenta is an organ which protects, feeds, and regulates the grooving of the embryo. Therefore, identification and characterization of placental components including proteins and their multi-protein complexes is an important step to understanding the placenta function. We have obtained and analyzed for the first time an extremely stable multi-protein complex (SPC, ∼ 1000 kDa from the soluble fraction of three human placentas. By gel filtration on Sepharose-4B, the SPC was well separated from other proteins of the placenta extract. Light scattering measurements and gel filtration showed that the SPC is stable in the presence of NaCl, MgCl2, acetonitrile, guanidinium chloride, and Triton in high concentrations, but dissociates efficiently in the presence of 8 M urea, 50 mM EDTA, and 0.5 M NaCl. Such a stable complex is unlikely to be a casual associate of different proteins. According to SDS-PAGE and MALDI mass spectrometry data, this complex contains many major glycosylated proteins with low and moderate molecular masses (MMs 4-14 kDa and several moderately abundant (79.3, 68.5, 52.8, and 27.2 kDa as well as minor proteins with higher MMs. The SPC treatment with dithiothreitol led to a disappearance of some protein bands and revealed proteins with lower MMs. The SPCs from three placentas efficiently hydrolyzed plasmid supercoiled DNA with comparable rates and possess at least two DNA-binding sites with different affinities for a 12-mer oligonucleotide. Progress in study of placental protein complexes can promote understanding of their biological functions.

Geospatial Absorption and Regional Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IOAN MAC

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The geospatial absorptions are characterized by a specific complexity both in content and in their phenomenological and spatial manifestation fields. Such processes are differentiated according to their specificity to pre-absorption, absorption or post-absorption. The mechanisms that contribute to absorption are extremely numerous: aggregation, extension, diffusion, substitution, resistivity (resilience, stratification, borrowings, etc. Between these mechanisms frequent relations are established determining an amplification of the process and of its regional effects. The installation of the geographic osmosis phenomenon in a given territory (a place for example leads to a homogenization of the geospatial state and to the installation of the regional homogeneity.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forkel, Matthias; Beer, Christian; Thonicke, Kirsten; Cramer, Wolfgang; Bartalev, Sergey; Schmullius, Christiane

2012-01-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires can degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amounts of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope and dry air conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. Here we identify surface moisture as an additional important driving factor for the evolution of extreme fire events in the Baikal region. An area of 127 000 km 2 burned in this region in 2003, a large part of it in regions underlain by permafrost. Analyses of satellite data for 2002–2009 indicate that previous-summer surface moisture is a better predictor for burned area than precipitation anomalies or fire weather indices for larch forests with continuous permafrost. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil, and how coupled mechanisms can lead to extreme events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, vegetation functioning, and fire activity in Earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century. (letter)

Defect detection based on extreme edge of defective region histogram

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zouhir Wakaf

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Automatic thresholding has been used by many applications in image processing and pattern recognition systems. Specific attention was given during inspection for quality control purposes in various industries like steel processing and textile manufacturing. Automatic thresholding problem has been addressed well by the commonly used Otsu method, which provides suitable results for thresholding images based on a histogram of bimodal distribution. However, the Otsu method fails when the histogram is unimodal or close to unimodal. Defects have different shapes and sizes, ranging from very small to large. The gray-level distributions of the image histogram can vary between unimodal and multimodal. Furthermore, Otsu-revised methods, like the valley-emphasis method and the background histogram mode extents, which overcome the drawbacks of the Otsu method, require preprocessing steps and fail to use the general threshold for multimodal defects. This study proposes a new automatic thresholding algorithm based on the acquisition of the defective region histogram and the selection of its extreme edge as the threshold value to segment all defective objects in the foreground from the image background. To evaluate the proposed defect-detection method, common standard images for experimentation were used. Experimental results of the proposed method show that the proposed method outperforms the current methods in terms of defect detection.

Quantifying the Extremity of Windstorms for Regions Featuring Infrequent Events

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, M. A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Kruschke, T.; Rust, H.; Ulbrich, U.

2017-12-01

This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the Storm Severity Index (SSI) introduced by Leckebusch et al. (2008). While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. Here were compare the integral severity indices for several prominent windstorm in the European domain and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the respective index. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms. Additionally we can identify a significant relationship between the frequency and intensity of windstorms for large parts of the European domain.

Regulation of peripheral blood flow in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: clinical implication for symptomatic relief and pain management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coderre Terence J

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background During the chronic stage of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS, impaired microcirculation is related to increased vasoconstriction, tissue hypoxia, and metabolic tissue acidosis in the affected limb. Several mechanisms may be responsible for the ischemia and pain in chronic cold CPRS. Discussion The diminished blood flow may be caused by either sympathetic dysfunction, hypersensitivity to circulating catecholamines, or endothelial dysfunction. The pain may be of neuropathic, inflammatory, nociceptive, or functional nature, or of mixed origin. Summary The origin of the pain should be the basis of the symptomatic therapy. Since the difference in temperature between both hands fluctuates over time in cold CRPS, when in doubt, the clinician should prioritize the patient's report of a persistent cold extremity over clinical tests that show no difference. Future research should focus on developing easily applied methods for clinical use to differentiate between central and peripheral blood flow regulation disorders in individual patients.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were

Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

Extreme-scale Algorithms and Solver Resilience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dongarra, Jack [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2016-12-10

A widening gap exists between the peak performance of high-performance computers and the performance achieved by complex applications running on these platforms. Over the next decade, extreme-scale systems will present major new challenges to algorithm development that could amplify this mismatch in such a way that it prevents the productive use of future DOE Leadership computers due to the following; Extreme levels of parallelism due to multicore processors; An increase in system fault rates requiring algorithms to be resilient beyond just checkpoint/restart; Complex memory hierarchies and costly data movement in both energy and performance; Heterogeneous system architectures (mixing CPUs, GPUs, etc.); and Conflicting goals of performance, resilience, and power requirements.

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa, Diogo Ricardo da, E-mail: diogo_cost@hotmail.com [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Hansen, Matheus [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Instituto de Física, Univ. São Paulo, Rua do Matão, Cidade Universitária, 05314-970, São Paulo – SP (Brazil); Guarise, Gustavo [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, Rene O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, UNIFESP – Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Rua São Nicolau, 210, Centro, 09913-030, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Leonel, Edson D. [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste (Italy)

2016-04-22

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Diogo Ricardo da; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

2016-01-01

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-12-07

The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

The use of modern methods for complex studies of the hydrotechnical structures of the Barents Sea region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mel'nikov N. N

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The Barents region hydrotechnical structures (HTS as part of the bulk earth dams and levees tailings of mining enterprises in terms of requirements of the responsible entities have been considered. The brief review of emergencies and accidents of HTS with an analysis of their causes and geo-ecological consequences has been fulfilled. The necessity and urgency of the application of modern techniques for comprehensive research and monitoring of the HTS state have been shown: geo-fluid mechanics computer modeling, subsurface georadar sensing, GPS geodetic measurements, optical and radar satellite imagery. Joint use of GPR and satellite imagery in combination with traditional engineering-geological, hydro-geological and geodetic studies allows obtaining a more complete picture of the HTS state taking into account local and regional geological and fluid dynamic processes. The system structure of HTS complex researches which creates a scientific and technical basis for researching the geologic-geophysical environment, shifts, deformations and power influence has been developed. This allows to reveal the hidden filtration and deformation zones in HTS at early stages of their formation and in due time to make the administrative decision on prevention and localization of any emergency. Application of modern methods for HTS complex researches will allow to receive operational information on their state, parametrical sizes of volume, angular and linear deformations and movements, intensity of natural and technogenic influence. The obtained data have to be integrated in the "Database and Parameters" geoportal by means of which their logical processing and comparison to standard and extreme values has to be carried out. On this basis expert assessment of the current and expected state of HTS is carried out and the operating decisions including on development, in case of need, of preventive and protective measures are made

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions

Dystonia in complex regional pain syndrome : clinical, pathophysiological and therapeutic aspects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijn, Monica Adriana van

2010-01-01

The clinical characteristics of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) are defined by pain and various combinations of sensory disturbances, autonomic features, and sudomotor and trophic changes. Furthermore, patients with CRPS may suffer from movement disorders, of which dystonia is the most

Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

Modelling of the flow of stable air over a complex region

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Scholtz, MT

1976-01-01

Full Text Available The flow of stable air over a general region of complex topography and non-uniform surface temperature has been investigated. In order to gain further understanding of the motion of surface air, it was necessary to study the vertical structure...

A curative treatment option for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) Type I: dorsal root entry zone operation (report of two cases).

Science.gov (United States)

Kanpolat, Yucel; Al-Beyati, Eyyub; Ugur, Hasan Caglar; Akpinar, Gokhan; Kahilogullari, Gokmen; Bozkurt, Melih

2014-01-01

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I (CRPS-I) is a debated health problem concerning its pathophysiology and treatment strategies. A 12-year-old boy and a 35-year-old woman were diagnosed with CRPS-I at different times. They had previously undergone various types of interventions with no success. After one year of follow-up and observation, DREZ lesioning operation was performed. Afterwards, both cases had transient lower extremity ataxia. The first case was followed for 60 months with no recurrence and total cure. The second case was pain-free until the 6th month, when she required psychological support; she was followed for 33 months with partial satisfactory outcome. Although not a first-line option, DREZ lesioning procedure can be chosen and may be a curative option in selected cases of CRPS-I who are unresponsive to conventional therapies.

Bacterial Diversity within the Extreme Arid Atacama Desert Soils of the Yungay Region, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Connon, S. A.; Lester, E. D.; Shafaat, H. S.; Obenhuber, D. C.; Ponce, A.

2006-12-01

Surface and subsurface soil samples analyzed for this study were collected from the hyper-arid Yungay region of the Atacama Desert, Chile. This is the first report of microbial diversity from DNA extracted directly from these extremely desiccated soils. Our data shows that 94% of the 16S rRNA genes cloned from these soils belong to the Actinobacteria phylum. A 24-hour time course series showed a diurnal water activity (aw) cycle that peaked at 0.52 in the early predawn hours, and ranged from 0.08 0.01 during the day. All measured water activity values were below the level required for microbial growth or enzyme activity. Total organic carbon (TOC) levels in this region were just above the limits of detection and ranged from 220 660 μg/g of soil. Phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) levels indicated cellular biomass ranging from 2 ×105 to 7 ×106 cell equivalents per gram of soil. The culturable counts were low with most samples showing no growth on standard plates of R2A medium; the highest single count was 47 colony forming units (CFU) per gram.

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

On Wind Forces in the Forest-Edge Region During Extreme-Gust Passages and Their Implications for Damage Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Gromke, Christof; Ruck, Bodo

2018-03-01

A damage pattern that is occasionally found after a period of strong winds shows an area of damaged trees inside a forest stand behind an intact stripe of trees directly at the windward edge. In an effort to understand the mechanism leading to this damage pattern, wind loading in the forest-edge region during passages of extreme gusts with different characteristics are investigated using a scaled forest model in the wind tunnel. The interaction of a transient extreme gust with the stationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) as a background flow at the forest edge leads to the formation of a vortex at the top of the canopy. This vortex intensifies when travelling downstream and subsequently deflects high-momentum air from above the canopy downwards resulting in increased wind loading on the tree crowns. Under such conditions, the decrease in wind loading in the streamwise direction can be relatively weak compared to stationary ABL approach flows. The resistance of trees with streamwise distance from the forest edge, however, is the result of adaptive growth to wind loading under stationary flow conditions and shows a rapid decline within two to three tree heights behind the windward edge. For some of the extreme gusts realized, an exceedance of the wind loading over the resistance of the trees is found at approximately three tree heights behind the forest edge, suggesting that the damage pattern described above can be caused by the interaction of a transient extreme gust with the stationary ABL flow.

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome in Children: Asking the Right Questions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth R Goldschneider

2012-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS is a painful disorder without a known unifying mechanism. There are little data on which to base evaluation and treatment decisions, and what data are available come from studies involving adults; however, even that literature is relatively sparse. Developing robust research for CRPS in children is essential for the progress toward optimal treatment.

Incidence of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome I Following Foot and Ankle Fractures Using the Budapest Criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Bullen, Michael; Lang, Coran; Tran, Phong

2016-12-01

OBJECTIVE : Fractures are a well-recognized inciting event in the development of complex regional pain syndrome. This study aimed to prospectively determine the incidence of complex regional pain syndrome following foot and ankle fractures. METHODS : A prospective study was conducted of patients presenting to two metropolitan hospitals with plain radiograph diagnosis of fractures to the foot or ankle. Patients were initially screened by phone 3 months after injury using the validated International Association for the Study of Pain Budapest criteria. Patients who fulfilled the screening criteria were then physically examined by a pain specialist to assess clinical signs as part of the Budapest criteria. RESULTS : A total of 306 consecutive eligible patients were included. One hundred and ten patients reported at least one symptom of complex regional pain syndrome; however, only three fulfilled the minimum requirements to necessitate clinical review. Of these three, only one patient fulfilled the combination of symptom and sign criteria for a positive diagnosis according to the validated Budapest criteria. The incidence of complex regional pain syndrome following foot and ankle fracture in this study was 0.3%. CONCLUSION : Although many patients may experience vasomotor, sensory, and sudomotor disturbance following a fracture to the foot and ankle, the observed incidence of complex regional pain syndrome using a prospectively collected validated criteria is significantly lower than previously published. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.

2012-01-01

Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...

Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

2008-01-01

The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

Numerical simulation of floating bodies in extreme free surface waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Z. Hu

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water. The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.

Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-06-15

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

Regional development and regional policy

OpenAIRE

Šabić, Dejan; Vujadinović, Snežana

2017-01-01

Economic polarization is a process that is present at global, national and regional level. Economic activity is extremely spatially concentrated. Cities and developed regions use the agglomeration effect to attract labor and capital, thus achieving more favorable economic conditions than the agrarian region. Scientific research and European experiences over the past decades have contributed to the discrepancy among theorists about the causes and consequences of regional inequalities. Regional...

Asparagine 326 in the extremely C-terminal region of XRCC4 is essential for the cell survival after irradiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wanotayan, Rujira; Fukuchi, Mikoto; Imamichi, Shoji; Sharma, Mukesh Kumar; Matsumoto, Yoshihisa, E-mail: yoshim@nr.titech.ac.jp

2015-02-20

XRCC4 is one of the crucial proteins in the repair of DNA double-strand break (DSB) through non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ). As XRCC4 consists of 336 amino acids, N-terminal 200 amino acids include domains for dimerization and for association with DNA ligase IV and XLF and shown to be essential for XRCC4 function in DSB repair and V(D)J recombination. On the other hand, the role of the remaining C-terminal region of XRCC4 is not well understood. In the present study, we noticed that a stretch of ∼20 amino acids located at the extreme C-terminus of XRCC4 is highly conserved among vertebrate species. To explore its possible importance, series of mutants in this region were constructed and assessed for the functionality in terms of ability to rescue radiosensitivity of M10 cells lacking XRCC4. Among 13 mutants, M10 transfectant with N326L mutant (M10-XRCC4{sup N326L}) showed elevated radiosensitivity. N326L protein showed defective nuclear localization. N326L sequence matched the consensus sequence of nuclear export signal. Leptomycin B treatment accumulated XRCC4{sup N326L} in the nucleus but only partially rescued radiosensitivity of M10-XRCC4{sup N326L}. These results collectively indicated that the functional defects of XRCC4{sup N326L} might be partially, but not solely, due to its exclusion from nucleus by synthetic nuclear export signal. Further mutation of XRCC4 Asn326 to other amino acids, i.e., alanine, aspartic acid or glutamine did not affect the nuclear localization but still exhibited radiosensitivity. The present results indicated the importance of the extremely C-terminal region of XRCC4 and, especially, Asn326 therein. - Highlights: • Extremely C-terminal region of XRCC4 is highly conserved among vertebrate species. • XRCC4 C-terminal point mutants, R325F and N326L, are functionally deficient in terms of survival after irradiation. • N326L localizes to the cytoplasm because of synthetic nuclear export signal. • Leptomycin B restores the

Evidence for local inflammation in complex regional pain syndrome type 1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank J. P. M. Huygen

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The pathophysiology of complex regional pain syndrome type 1 (CRPS 1 is still a matter of debate. Peripheral afferent, efferent and central mechanisms are supposed. Based on clinical signs and symptoms (e.g. oedema, local temperature changes and chronic pain local inflammation is suspected.

Signature of Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Regions in India Identified through a Multivariate Frequency Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Jitendra; Hari, Vittal; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-04-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which shows need of nonstationary analysis on the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the entire India to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity in the Indian monsoon. We use 1o resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1901-2004, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. A population density data has been utilized to identify the urban, urbanizing and rural regions. The results showed significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary bivariate return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. A comprehensive multivariate analysis has also been conducted to identify the precipitation characteristics particularly responsible for imprinting signature of nonstationarity.

Critical Hydrologic and Atmospheric Measurements in Complex Alpine Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Parlange, M. B.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Barrenetxea, G.; Krichane, M.; Ingelrest, F.; Couach, O.; Luyet, V.; Vetterli, M.; Lehning, M.; Duffy, C.; Tobin, C.; Selker, J.; Kumar, M.

2007-12-01

The Alps are often referred to as the « Water Towers of Europe » and as such play an essential role in European water resources. The impact of climatic change is expected to be particularly pronounced in the Alps and the lack of detailed hydrologic field observations is problematic for predictions of hydrologic and hazard assessment. Advances in information technology and communications provide important possibilities to improve the situation with relatively few measurements. We will present sensorscope technology (arrays of wireless weather stations including soil moisture, pressure, and temperature) that has now been deployed at the Le Genepi and Grand St. Bernard pass. In addition, a Distributed Temperature Sensor array on the stream beds has been deployed and stream discharge monitored. The high spatial resolution data collected in these previously "ungaged" regions are used in conjunction with new generation hydrologic models. The framework as to what is possible today with sensor arrays and modeling in extreme mountain environments is discussed.

Christian Extremism as a Domestic Terror Threat

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-19

extremism with cultural relativism to universally deem extremist actions as justified.8 Religious extremism and conflict are not new. Conceivably, as...legitimized this practice, they forfeited their legitimacy and moral authority to govern.” Rudolph went on to state that his actions were to “embarrass and...funerals?7 Religion remains a significantly complex and controversial subject within any social culture . Like any social construct, religion is subject

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

Extreme project. Progress report 2006; Projet EXTREME. Rapport d'avancement 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S

2007-07-01

The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

Plasma devices for focusing extreme light pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, J.; Gonoskov, A.A.; Nakatsutsumi, M.; Nazarov, W.; Quere, F.; Sergeev, A.M.; Yan, X.Q.

2014-01-01

Since the inception of the laser, there has been a constant push toward increasing the laser peak intensity, as this has lead to opening the exploration of new territories, and the production of compact sources of particles and radiation with unprecedented characteristics. However, increasing the peak laser intensity is usually performed by enhancing the produced laser properties, either by lowering its duration or increasing its energy, which involves a great level of complexity for the laser chain, or comes at great cost. Focusing tightly is another possibility to increase the laser intensity, but this comes at the risk of damaging the optics with target debris, as it requires their placement in close proximity to the interaction region. Plasma devices are an attractive, compact alternative to tightly focus extreme light pulses and further increase the final laser intensity. (authors)

Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

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Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

2014-05-01

During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

SHIELD: The Star Formation Law in Extremely Low-mass Galaxies

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Teich, Yaron; McNichols, Andrew; Cannon, John M.; SHIELD Team

2016-01-01

The "Survey of HI in Extremely Low-mass Dwarfs" (SHIELD) is a multiwavelength, legacy-class observational study of 12 low-mass dwarf galaxies discovered in Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA (ALFALFA) survey data products. Here we analyze the relationships between HI and star formation in these systems using multi-configuration, high spatial (~300 pc) and spectral (0.82 - 2.46 km s-1 ch-1) resolution HI observations from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array, Hα imaging from the WIYN 3.5m telescope, and archival GALEX far-ultraviolet imaging. We compare the locations and intensities of star formation with the properties of the neutral ISM. We quantify the degree of local co-spatiality between star forming regions and regions of high HI column densities using the Kennicutt-Schmidt (K-S) relation. The values of the K-S index N vary considerably from system to system; because no single galaxy is representative of the sample, we instead focus on the narratives of the individual galaxies and their complex distribution of gaseous and stellar components. At the extremely faint end of the HI mass function, these systems are dominated by stochastic fluctuations in their interstellar media, which governs whether or not they show signs of recent star formation.Support for this work was provided by NSF grant AST-1211683 to JMC at Macalester College.

[Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) : An update].

Science.gov (United States)

Dimova, V; Birklein, F

2018-04-17

The acute phase of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is pathophysiologically characterized by an activation of the immune system and its associated inflammatory response. During the course of CRPS, central nervous symptoms like mechanical hyperalgesia, loss of sensation, and body perception disorders develop. Psychological factors such as pain-related anxiety and traumatic events might have a negative effect on the treatment outcome. While the visible inflammatory symptoms improve, the pain often persists. A stage adapted, targeted treatment could improve the prognosis. Effective multidisciplinary treatment includes the following: pharmacotherapy with steroids, bisphosphonates, or dimethylsulfoxide cream (acute phase), and antineuropathic analgesics (all phases); physiotherapy and behavioral therapy for pain-related anxiety and avoidance of movement; and interventional treatment like spinal cord or dorsal root ganglion stimulation if noninvasive options failed.

Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems

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Watkins, N. W.

2013-01-01

I review the hierarchy of approaches to complex systems, focusing particularly on stochastic equations. I discuss how the main models advocated by the late Benoit Mandelbrot fit into this classification, and how they continue to contribute to cross-disciplinary approaches to the increasingly important problems of correlated extreme events and unresolved scales. The ideas have broad importance, with applications ranging across science areas as diverse as the heavy tailed distributions of intense rainfall in hydrology, after which Mandelbrot named the "Noah effect"; the problem of correlated runs of dry summers in climate, after which the "Joseph effect" was named; and the intermittent, bursty, volatility seen in finance and fluid turbulence.

Complex emergencies in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Impact on tuberculosis control.

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Seita, Akihiro

2016-12-01

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has witnessed the largest refugee crisis in history. Overall, 70% of the global refugee populations are from Palestine, Syria, Afghanistan, or Somalia. We reviewed the possible impact of such crisis on the tuberculosis situation in EMR. We used the available data and information from the World Health Organization and other international and national institutions. Overall, 15 out of 22 countries in the EMR are either engulfed in complex emergencies (10 countries) or suffering from their neighbors' complex emergencies (7 countries), whereas two countries suffer from both. Eighty-five percent of the total population (636 million) in the region lives in these 15 countries. For tuberculosis, these 15 countries account for a significant burden in EMR: 94% of the estimated total incidence of 740,000 cases a year and 95% of the estimated total mortality of 91,000 a year. These countries have yet to show the significant negative impact on tuberculosis epidemiology as such changes take considerable time to manifest. Still, there are reports on health systems impact: access to health facilities, destruction of health facilities, health staff casualties, and shortage of medicines. Complex emergencies pose a significant negative impact on tuberculosis in the EMR. This issue should be raised in the global health and political arena. This is a time bomb for tuberculosis. Copyright © 2016.

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

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Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

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Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

Regional Brain Biometrics at Term-Equivalent Age and Developmental Outcome in Extremely Low-Birth-Weight Infants.

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Melbourne, Launice; Murnick, Jonathan; Chang, Taeun; Glass, Penny; Massaro, An N

2015-10-01

This study aims to evaluate individual regional brain biometrics and their association with developmental outcome in extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants. This is a retrospective study evaluating term-equivalent magnetic resonance imaging (TE-MRI) from 27 ELBW infants with known developmental outcomes beyond 12 months corrected age. Regional biometric measurements were performed by a pediatric neuroradiologist blinded to outcome data. Measures included biparietal width, transcerebellar diameter (TCD), deep gray matter area (DGMA), ventricular dilatation, corpus callosum, and interhemispheric distance. The relationship between regional biometrics and Bayley-II developmental scores were evaluated with linear regression models. The study cohort had an average±standard deviation birth weight of 684±150 g, gestational age of 24.6±2 weeks and 48% males. DGMA was significantly associated with both cognitive and motor outcomes. Significant associations were also observed between TCD and corpus callosum splenium with cognitive and motor outcomes, respectively. Other biometric measures were not associated with outcome (p>0.05). DGMAbiometrics reflecting impaired deep gray matter, callosal, and cerebellar size is associated with worse early childhood cognitive and motor outcomes. DGMA may be the most robust single biometric measure to predict adverse developmental outcome in preterm survivors. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Genetic HLA Associations in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome With and Without Dystonia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Rooijen, D.E.; Roelen, D.L.; Verduijn, W.; Haasnoot, G.W.; Huygen, F.J.P.M.; Perez, R.S.G.M.; Claas, F.H.J.; Marinus, J.; van Hilten, J.J.; van den Maagdenberg, A.M.J.M.

2012-01-01

We previously showed evidence for a genetic association of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) system and complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) with dystonia. Involvement of the HLA system suggests that CRPS has a genetic component with perturbed regulation of inflammation and neuroplasticity as

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

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Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

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Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

Risk Factors for Post-treatment Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): An Analysis of 647 Cases of CRPS from the Danish Patient Compensation Association.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Pelle B; Mikkelsen, Kim L; Lauritzen, Jes B; Krogsgaard, Michael R

2018-03-01

Complex regional pain syndrome is a challenging condition that includes a broad spectrum of sensory, autonomic, and motor features predominantly in extremities recovering from a trauma. Few large-scale studies have addressed occurrence of and factors associated with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) following orthopedic treatment. The present study aimed to identify factors associated with post-treatment development of CRPS. Using the Danish Patient Compensation Association's database, we identified 647 patients claiming post-treatment CRPS between 1992 and 2015. Age, gender, initial diagnosis, treatment, and amount of compensation were extracted. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify variables associated with approval of the claim. For carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) patients, we registered whether symptoms were bilateral or unilateral and if neurophysiology prior to treatment was pathologic. The following ratios were found: women:men was 4:1, primary diagnosis to the upper limb:lower limb was 2.5:1, and surgical:nonsurgical treatment was 3:1. Mean age was 47.5 ± 13.7 years, and no intergender difference was detected. Antebrachial fracture (23%) and CTS (9%) were the most common primary conditions. Surgical treatment was associated with approval of the claim (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 5.3; P CRPS patients. In CTS patients developing CRPS, normal neurophysiological examination findings were common, and it could be suspected that these patients were suffering from an pre-clinical stage of CRPS, not CTS. © 2017 World Institute of Pain.

A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of the regionalization of complex surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Studnicki, James; Craver, Christopher; Blanchette, Christopher M; Fisher, John W; Shahbazi, Sara

2014-08-16

longest lengths of stay were found in higher volume hospitals. Complex surgery in Florida is effectively regionalized so that small volume hospitals operating within the range of complex procedures appropriate to their capabilities provide no increased risk of post surgical mortality.

Regionalisation in Serbia: Between centralism and regionalism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tripković Milan B.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is one of the results of the empirical research of the problem of regionalisation and multiculturality on the territory of Vojvodina. Only the part of gathered data, which concerns the regionalisation of Serbia and the status of Vojvodina, is used. Claiming that a regional state is not only a special form of the complex organization of state authorities, but also a special form of the whole social life, the author tries to define clear and reliable criteria of "good" or "desirable" regionalisation, which would avoid extreme centralism and extreme regionalism. Following the statistical territorial units, according to the standards of the European Union (NUTS the author recommends the a regional structure, understood as a special form of division of authorities: Serbia as a state or federal unit (NUTS 1 Vojvodina and Kosovo and Metohija as provinces (NUTS 2, regions (NUTS 3 sub-regions (NUTS 4 and municipalities (NUTS 5. In this context, it is suggested that the future Constitution of the Republic of Serbia should define only provinces and municipalities (NUTS 2 and NUTS 5, while for the forming of regions and sub-regions (NUTS 3 and NUTS 4 only the procedure and principles should be given - the rest would be left to spontaneous initiative of potential regional or sub-regional units. Two undesirable things would be avoided: A regionalisation imposed from "above", which could be understood as uncovered centralism, and a regionalism from "bellow" which tries to hide separatism under the mask of regionalisation and which leads not to better functioning and faster development of Serbia, but to disintegration.

Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation

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Zhang, Shengrui; Xiao, Jule; Xu, Qinghai; Wen, Ruilin; Fan, Jiawei; Huang, Yun; Yamagata, Hideki

2018-06-01

The response of vegetation to extreme cold events during the last deglaciation is important for assessing the impact of possible extreme climatic events on terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios. Here, we present a detailed record of the development of regional vegetation in the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation (16,500-11,000 cal yr BP) based on a radiocarbon-dated high-resolution pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeast China. The results show that the regional vegetation changed from subalpine meadow-desert steppe to mixed coniferous and deciduous forest-typical steppe during the last deglaciation. However, its responses to the Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas event (YD) were significantly different: during the H1 event, scattered sparse forest was present in the surrounding mountains, while within the lake catchment the vegetation cover was poor and was dominated by desert steppe. In contrast, during the YD event, deciduous forest developed and the proportion of coniferous forest increased in the mountains, the lake catchment was occupied by typical steppe. We suggest that changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and land surface conditions (ice sheets and sea level) caused temperature and monsoonal precipitation variations that contributed to the contrasting vegetation response during the two cold events. We conclude that under future global warming scenarios, extreme climatic events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment of the Hulun Lake region, resulting in increased coniferous forest and decreased total forest cover in the surrounding mountains, and a reduction in typical steppe in the lake catchment.

Security Inequalities in North America: Reassessing Regional Security Complex Theory

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Richard Kilroy

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article re-evaluates earlier work done by the authors on Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT in North America, using sectoral analysis initially developed by Buzan and Waever, but also adding the variables of institutions, identity, and interests. These variables are assessed qualitatively in the contemporary context on how they currently impress upon the process of securitization within sectoral relations between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The article reviews the movement from bilateral security relations between these states to the development of a trilateral response to regional security challenges post- 9/11. It further addresses the present period and what appears to be a security process derailed by recent political changes and security inequalities, heightened by the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The article argues that while these three states initially evinced a convergence of regional security interests after 9/11, which did create new institutional responses, under the current conditions, divergence in political interests and security inequalities have reduced the explanatory power of RSCT in North America. Relations between states in North American are becoming less characterized by the role of institutions and interests and more by identity politics in the region.

Distributions of extreme bursts above thresholds in a fractional Lévy toy model of natural complexity.

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Watkins, Nicholas; Chapman, Sandra; Rosenberg, Sam; Credgington, Dan; Sanchez, Raul

2010-05-01

In 2 far-sighted contributions in the 1960s Mandelbrot showed the ubiquity of both non-Gaussian fluctuations and long-ranged temporal memory (the "Noah" and "Joseph" effects, respectively) in the natural and man-made worlds. Much subsequent work in complexity science has contributed to the physical underpinning of these effects, particularly in cases where complex interactions in a system cause a driven or random perturbation to be nonlinearly amplified in amplitude and/or spread out over a wide range of frequencies. In addition the modelling of catastrophes has begun to incorporate the insights which these approaches have offered into the likelihood of extreme and long-lived fluctuations. I will briefly survey how the application of the above ideas in the earth system has been a key focus and motivation of research into natural complexity at BAS [e.g. Watkins & Freeman, Science, 2008; Edwards et al, Nature, 2007]. I will then discuss in detail a standard toy model (linear fractional stable motion, LFSM) which combines the Noah and Joseph effects in a controllable way and explain how it differs from the widely used continuous time random walk. I will describe how LFSM is being used to explore the interplay of the above two effects in the distribution of bursts above thresholds. I will describe ongoing work to improve the accuracy of maximum likelihood-based estimation of burst size and waiting time distributions for LFSM first reported in [Watkins et al, PRE, 2009]; and will also touch on similar work for multifractal models [Watkins et al, PRL comment, 2009].

Is there Complex Trauma Experience typology for Australian's experiencing extreme social disadvantage and low housing stability?

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Carol A; Magee, Christopher A; Kelly, Peter J

2016-11-01

Traumatic childhood experiences predict many adverse outcomes in adulthood including Complex-PTSD. Understanding complex trauma within socially disadvantaged populations has important implications for policy development and intervention implementation. This paper examined the nature of complex trauma experienced by disadvantaged individuals using a latent class analysis (LCA) approach. Data were collected through the large-scale Journeys Home Study (N=1682), utilising a representative sample of individuals experiencing low housing stability. Data on adverse childhood experiences, adulthood interpersonal trauma and relevant covariates were collected through interviews at baseline (Wave 1). Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to identify distinct classes of childhood trauma history, which included physical assault, neglect, and sexual abuse. Multinomial logistic regression investigated childhood relevant factors associated with class membership such as biological relationship of primary carer at age 14 years and number of times in foster care. Of the total sample (N=1682), 99% reported traumatic adverse childhood experiences. The most common included witnessing of violence, threat/experience of physical abuse, and sexual assault. LCA identified six distinct childhood trauma history classes including high violence and multiple traumas. Significant covariate differences between classes included: gender, biological relationship of primary carer at age 14 years, and time in foster care. Identification of six distinct childhood trauma history profiles suggests there might be unique treatment implications for individuals living in extreme social disadvantage. Further research is required to examine the relationship between these classes of experience, consequent impact on adulthood engagement, and future transitions though homelessness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Impacts of the 2013 Extreme Flood in Northeast China on Regional Groundwater Depth and Quality

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Xihua Wang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Flooding’s impact on shallow groundwater is not well investigated. In this study, we analyzed changes in the depth and quality of a regional shallow aquifer in the 10.9 × 104 km2 Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, following a large flood in the summer of 2013. Pre- (2008–2012 and post-flood records on groundwater table depth and groundwater chemistry were gathered from 20 wells across the region. Spatial variability of groundwater recharge after the flood was assessed and the changes in groundwater quality in the post-flood period were determined. The study found a considerable increase in the groundwater table after the 2013 summer flood across the region, with the largest (3.20 m and fastest (0.80 m·s−1 rising height occurring in western Sanjiang Plain. The rising height and velocity gradually declined from the west to the east of the plain. For the entire region, we estimated an average recharge height of 1.24 m for the four flood months (June to September of 2013. Furthermore, we found that the extreme flood reduced nitrate (NO3− and chloride (Cl− concentrations and electrical conductivity (EC in shallow groundwater in the areas that were close to rivers, but increased NO3− and Cl− concentrations and EC in the areas that were under intensive agricultural practices. As the region’s groundwater storage and quality have been declining due to the rapidly increasing rice cultivation, this study shows that floods should be managed as water resources to ease the local water shortage as well as shallow groundwater pollution.

Response identification in the extremely low frequency region of an electret condenser microphone.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeng, Yih-Nen; Yang, Tzung-Ming; Lee, Shang-Yin

2011-01-01

This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC) has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD) plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems.

Response Identification in the Extremely Low Frequency Region of an Electret Condenser Microphone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shang-Yin Lee

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems.

Complex regional pain syndrome related movement disorders : studies on pathophysiology and therapy.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Munts, Alexander Gerard

2011-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) may occur after trauma, usually to one limb, and is characterised by pain and disturbed blood flow, temperature regulation and motor control. Knowledge on CRPS and its movement disorders is scarce. Dysfunction in small nerve fiber processing was found in CRPS

Informed Decision-Making Regarding Amputation for Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bodde, Marlies I.; Dijkstra, Pieter U.; Schrier, Michiel; van den Dungen, Johannes; den Dunnen, Wilfred E.; Geertzen, Joannes

2014-01-01

Background: Literature on complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS-I) discussing the decision to amputate or not, the level of amputation, or the timing of the amputation is scarce: We evaluated informed decision-making regarding amputation for CRPS-I. Methods: We describe our findings in a

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

2017-12-01

Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University; Scherer, Martin [Stanford University; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL

2012-01-01

Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Complex regional pain syndrome 1 : a study on pain and motor impairments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G.M. Ribbers (Gerard)

2001-01-01

textabstractThis thesis, is compiled of publications on reflex sympathetic dystrophy (RSD) or Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type 1 (CRPS 1), as it was renamed by the committee on taxonomy of the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP). It is a puzzling syndrome both from a clinical

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Synchronization and Causality Across Time-scales: Complex Dynamics and Extremes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Jajcay, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

A better understanding of dynamics in complex systems, such as the Earth's climate is one of the key challenges for contemporary science and society. A large amount of experimental data requires new mathematical and computational approaches. Natural complex systems vary on many temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting recurring patterns and quasi-oscillatory phenomena. The statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding of underlying mechanisms and a key for modeling and prediction of such systems. This study introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different wavelet components of the observed data that characterizes El Niño. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales was detected, and intermittent synchronization among different time scales has been associated with the extreme El Niño events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions were further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction. Moreover, the statistical framework which we apply here is suitable for direct usage of inferring cross-scale interactions in nonlinear time series from complex systems such as the terrestrial magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic activity or even human brain dynamics.

(When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

2015-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale

OpenAIRE

Hoffmann, Christin

2017-01-01

A significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high...

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

Science.gov (United States)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

Young stellar population and star formation history ofW4 HII region/Cluster Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Panwar, Neelam

2018-04-01

The HII region/cluster complex has been a subject of numerous investigations to study the feedback effect of massive stars on their surroundings. Massive stars not only alter the morphology of the parental molecular clouds, but also influence star formation, circumstellar disks and the mass function of low-mass stars in their vicinity. However, most of the studies of low-mass stellar content of the HII regions are limited only to the nearby regions. We study the star formation in the W4 HII region using deep optical observations obtained with the archival data from Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope, Two-Micron All Sky Survey, Spitzer, Herschel and Chandra. We investigate the spatial distribution of young stellar objects in the region, their association with the remnant molecular clouds, and search for the clustering to establish the sites of recent star formation. Our analysis suggests that the influence of massive stars on circumstellar disks is significant only to thei! r immediate neighborhood. The spatial correlation of the young stars with the distribution of gas and dust of the complex indicate that the clusters would have formed in a large filamentary cloud. The observing facilities at the 3.6-m Devasthal Optical Telescope (DOT), providing high-resolution spectral and imaging capabilities, will fulfill the major objectives in the study of HII regions.

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F.; Kissling, E.

2011-01-01

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F. [Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kissling, E. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2011-10-15

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

Quasi-markets targets and the evaluation of nursing-home funding in the Valencian Region

OpenAIRE

Fuenmayor Fernández, Amadeo; Granell Pérez, Rafael; Tortosa Chuliá, María Ángeles

2016-01-01

Spanish long term care is in danger, therefore we propose a change in the nursing home funding system. We use as an example the extremely complex nursing home financing system of Valencian Region. In this region, there are many funding mechanisms: two types of public subsidies, two different accessibility plans, a voucher scheme and a cash benefit approach related to residential service. We evaluate these methods through the quasi-market theory. We find that these approaches have negative imp...

Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.

2012-04-01

In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at

Research on the development efficiency of regional high-end talent in China: A complex network approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Minggang; Tian, Lixin; Zhang, Wenbin

2017-01-01

In this paper, based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1991 to 2016, the regional development efficiency matrix of high-end talent is obtained by DEA method, and the matrix is converted into a continuous change of complex networks through the construction of sliding window. Using a series of continuous changes in the complex network topology statistics, the characteristics of regional high-end talent development efficiency system are analyzed. And the results show that the average development efficiency of high-end talent in the western region is at a low level. After 2005, the national regional high-end talent development efficiency network has both short-range relevance and long-range relevance in the evolution process. The central region plays an important intermediary role in the national regional high-end talent development system. And the western region has high clustering characteristics. With the implementation of the high-end talent policies with regional characteristics by different provinces and cities, the relevance of high-end talent development efficiency in various provinces and cities presents a weakening trend, and the geographical characteristics of high-end talent are more and more obvious.

Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Application of geophysics in the aerial mapping of magmatic complexes of the Sierra de Famatina in La Rioja, Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candiani, J.

2010-01-01

The mountain range of Famatina is characterized by a group of prominent elevations above the base level of the surrounding area. Geologically it is a complex region that is located in the Andean fore land. Carboniferous extensional tectonics favored per alkaline leucocranitos intrusion. In an area of extreme geo morphological features, the magnetometry and radiometry r methodology has facilitated regional mapping of magmatic units

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

2016-03-31

A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

Longitudinal Regional Brain Development and Clinical Risk Factors in Extremely Preterm Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kersbergen, Karina J; Makropoulos, Antonios; Aljabar, Paul; Groenendaal, Floris; de Vries, Linda S; Counsell, Serena J; Benders, Manon J N L

2016-11-01

To investigate third-trimester extrauterine brain growth and correlate this with clinical risk factors in the neonatal period, using serially acquired brain tissue volumes in a large, unselected cohort of extremely preterm born infants. Preterm infants (gestational age regions covering the entire brain. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine the influence of clinical variables on volumes at both scans, as well as on volumetric growth. MRIs at term equivalent age were available for 210 infants and serial data were available for 131 infants. Growth over these 10 weeks was greatest for the cerebellum, with an increase of 258%. Sex, birth weight z-score, and prolonged mechanical ventilation showed global effects on brain volumes on both scans. The effect of brain injury on ventricular size was already visible at 30 weeks, whereas growth data and volumes at term-equivalent age revealed the effect of brain injury on the cerebellum. This study provides data about third-trimester extrauterine volumetric brain growth in preterm infants. Both global and local effects of several common clinical risk factors were found to influence serial volumetric measurements, highlighting the vulnerability of the human brain, especially in the presence of brain injury, during this period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, J. A.

2015-12-01

J. A. Marengo * and J. C. Espinoza** * Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Sao Paulo, Brazil ** Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH), Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as 'once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st

Extreme Facial Expressions Classification Based on Reality Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Rad, Abdolvahab Ehsani; Rehman, Amjad; Altameem, Ayman

2014-09-01

Extreme expressions are really type of emotional expressions that are basically stimulated through the strong emotion. An example of those extreme expression is satisfied through tears. So to be able to provide these types of features; additional elements like fluid mechanism (particle system) plus some of physics techniques like (SPH) are introduced. The fusion of facile animation with SPH exhibits promising results. Accordingly, proposed fluid technique using facial animation is the real tenor for this research to get the complex expression, like laugh, smile, cry (tears emergence) or the sadness until cry strongly, as an extreme expression classification that's happens on the human face in some cases.

Regional differences in brain volume predict the acquisition of skill in a complex real-time strategy videogame.

Science.gov (United States)

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F

2011-08-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 h to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optokinetic stimulation increases limb pain and forehead hyperalgesia in complex regional pain syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Lone F.; Drummond, Peter D.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Ambiguous visual stimuli increase limb pain in patients with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), possibly due to afferent sensory feedback conflicts. Conflicting sensory stimuli can also generate unpleasant sensations in healthy people such as during motion sickness. We wanted to i...

Geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Bookhagen, Bodo; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen

2014-05-01

Complex networks (CN) and event synchronization (ES) methods have been applied to study a number of climate phenomena such as Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), South-American Monsoon, and African Monsoon. These methods proved to be powerful tools to infer interdependencies in climate dynamics between geographical sites, spatial structures, and key regions of the considered climate phenomenon. Here, we use these methods to study the spatial temporal variability of the extreme rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, in order to filter the data by coarse-graining the network, and to identify geographic patterns that are signature features (spatial signatures) of the ISM. We find four main geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent using up-to-date satellite-derived, and high temporal and spatial resolution rain-gauge interpolated daily rainfall datasets. In order to prove that our results are also relevant for other climatic variables like pressure and temperature, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). We find that two of the patterns revealed from the CN extreme rainfall analysis coincide with those obtained for the pressure and temperature fields, and all four above mentioned patterns can be explained by topography, winds, and monsoon circulation. CN and ES enable to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to infer geographic pattern that are spatial signatures of the ISM. These patterns deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

Child Abuse and Dissociation in Patients with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Williams

1999-01-01

Full Text Available >OBJECTIVE: In the absence of a proven medical explanation for the chronic pain syndrome Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type I (CRPS I, this study explored a hypothetical link between childhood physical and sexual abuse, and the subsequent development of CRPS I. The hypothesis predicts the existence of a subpopulation of CRPS I patients with a high frequency of dissociative experiences corresponding to a history of childhood trauma.

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-12-01

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

Methodical Approaches To Analysis And Forecasting Of Development Fuel And Energy Complex And Gas Industry In The Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Andreyevich Tsybatov

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Fuel and energy complex (FEC is one of the main elements of the economy of any territory over which intertwine the interests of all economic entities. To ensure economic growth of the region should ensure that internal balance of energy resources, which should be developed with account of regional specifics of economic growth and energy security. The study examined the status of this equilibrium, indicating fuel and energy balance of the region (TEB. The aim of the research is the development of the fuel and energy balance, which will allow to determine exactly how many and what resources are not enough to ensure the regional development strategy and what resources need to be brought in. In the energy balances as the focus of displays all issues of regional development, so thermopile is necessary as a mechanism of analysis of current issues, economic development, and in the forward-looking version — as a tool future vision for the fuel and energy complex, energy threats and ways of overcoming them. The variety of relationships in the energy sector with other sectors and aspects of society lead to the fact that the development of the fuel and energy balance of the region have to go beyond the actual energy sector, involving the analysis of other sectors of economy, as well as systems such as banking, budgetary, legislative, tax. Due to the complexity of the discussed problems, the obvious is the need to develop appropriate forecast-analytical system, allowing regional authorities to implement evidence-based predictions of the consequences of management decisions. Multivariant scenario study on development of fuel and energy complex and separately industry, to use the methods of project-based management, harmonized application of state regulation of strategic and market mechanisms on the operational directions of development of fuel and energy complex and separately industry in the economy of the region.

The Ways of Preventing Students’ Extremism and Intolerance in the Regional Educational Institutions

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O. A. Selivanova

2012-01-01

Full Text Available  The paper reveals the inefficiency problem of preventive measures controlling students’ intolerant and extremist behavior in higher educational institutions. According to the author, such trends in students’ society, as well as the rising phenomenon of nationalistic religious identity inevitably leading to interpersonal tensions, are caused in the last decades by the degrading prestige of higher education, growing pragmatism and formality of its achievement and key value depreciation in higher educational institutions. To improve the existing situation, it is necessary to revive the main functions of higher educational establishments –the intellectual and professional elite formation, cherishing the humanity values, social responsibility and active civil position; on the other hand, it is vitally important to create the system of prevention and correction of such trends as intolerance and extremism. However, the above goals are aggravated by the number of other problems listed in the paper.The method of developing the system of complex prevention of the mentioned negative phenomena is proposed with the reference to higher educational institutions; the specific stages of the given method, the technologies and organizational forms being outlined; the practical application and outcome in Tyumen State University being discussed. The research findings can be interesting for people responsible for preventive measures in higher educational instinutionms. 

Extreme project. Progress report 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S.

2007-01-01

The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

Regional and Historical Minerageny of the Gemstone Complexes in Russia (Quantitative Aspects

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Polyanin V.S.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an approximate quantitative estimation of the mineragenic potentials of gems in the paleogeodynamic systems, complexes, and geological formations of Russia, which are characterized by different age and regional distribution. General trends of the changes in the scale and intensity of formation processes of the same gem deposits over geologic time were identified.

Stressful life events and psychological dysfunction in complex regional pain syndrome type I

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geertzen, JHB; de Bruijn-Kofman, AT; de Bruijn, HP; van de Wiel, HBM; Dijkstra, PU

Objective: To determine to what extent stressful life events and psychological dysfunction play a role in the pathogenesis of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type I (CRPS). Design: A comparative study between a CRPS group and a control group. Stressful life events and psychological dysfunction

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

2008-01-01

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

Textiles from Scythian burial complexes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Fialko

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In Northern Black Sea steppes were excavated more than three thousand Scythian burial mounds. In the studied burials were discovered large quantities of artifacts, but leather and textile items are preserved only in a few cases. Some ideas about Scythian costume are found in the works of Greek authors. In this regard, extremely important is the funerary complex dated with the 4th century BC, discovered in barrow Vishnevaja Moghila (Zaporizhia region, Ukraine. In the crypt, which remained undisturbed over time, was found a burial of a Scythian girl. The unique condition of preservation of the textiles and leather findings allowed reconstructing the entire costume of the Scythian. It consisted of six layers of clothing. Various pieces of clothing were made from different materials: white linen cloth, orange satin fabric, reddish-brown fur, black cloth, fur, red skin. This discovery is one of a kind in the Northern Black Sea region, which is currently a reference example of female costume of early nomads of the region.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme

Extreme nitrogen deposition can change methane oxidation rate in moist acidic tundra soil in Arctic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J.; Kim, J.; Kang, H.

2017-12-01

Recently, extreme nitrogen(N) deposition events are observed in Arctic regions where over 90% of the annual N deposition occurred in just a few days. Since Arctic ecosystems are typically N-limited, input of extremely high amount of N could substantially affect ecosystem processes. CH4 is a potent greenhouse gas that has 25 times greater global warming potential than CO2 over a 100-year time frame. Ammonium is known as an inhibitor of methane oxidation and nitrate also shows inhibitory effect on it in temperate ecosystems. However, effects of N addition on Arctic ecosystems are still elusive. We conducted a lab-scale incubation experiment with moist acidic tundra (MAT) soil from Council, Alaska to investigate the effect of extreme N deposition events on methane oxidation. Zero point five % methane was added to the head space to determine the potential methane oxidation rate of MAT soil. Three treatments (NH4NO3-AN, (NH4)2SO4-AS, KNO3-PN) were used to compare effects of ammonium, nitrate and salts. All treatments were added in 3 levels: 10μg N gd.w-1(10), 50μg N gd.w-1(50) and 100μg N gd.w-1(100). AN10 and AN50 increased methane oxidation rate 1.7, 6% respectively. However, AN100 shows -8.5% of inhibitory effect. In AS added samples, all 3 concentrations (AN10, AN50, AN100) stimulated methane oxidation rate with 4.7, 8.9, 4%, respectively. On the contrary, PN50 (-9%) and PN100 (-59.5%) exhibited a significant inhibitory effect. We also analyzed the microbial gene abundance and community structures of methane oxidizing bacteria using a DNA-based fingerprinting method (T-RFLP) Our study results suggest that NH4+ can stimulate methane oxidation in Arctic MAT soil, while NO3- can inhibit methane oxidation significantly.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

ON MAGNETIC ACTIVITY BAND OVERLAP, INTERACTION, AND THE FORMATION OF COMPLEX SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McIntosh, Scott W. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Leamon, Robert J., E-mail: mscott@hao.ucar.edu [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States)

2014-11-20

Recent work has revealed a phenomenological picture of the how the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle of the Sun arises. The production and destruction of sunspots is a consequence of the latitudinal-temporal overlap and interaction of the toroidal magnetic flux systems that belong to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle and are rooted deep in the Sun's convective interior. We present a conceptually simple extension of this work, presenting a hypothesis on how complex active regions can form as a direct consequence of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction taking place in the solar interior. Furthermore, during specific portions of the sunspot cycle, we anticipate that those complex active regions may be particularly susceptible to profoundly catastrophic breakdown, producing flares and coronal mass ejections of the most severe magnitude.

Antenna diagnostics for power flow in extreme near-field of a standard gain horn

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Popa, Paula Irina; Breinbjerg, Olav

2016-01-01

The plane wave spectrum of an aperture antenna can be calculated from a complex measurement of the radiated near- or far-field and it facilitates antenna diagnostics for the extreme near-field of the antenna. While antenna diagnostics often concerns the magnitude of the co-polar field, the plane...... wave spectrum actually allows for determination of both magnitude and phase of all three components of the electric as well as the magnetic field - and thus also the Poynting vector. In this work we focus on the Poynting vector and thus the power flow in the extreme near-field; as an example we employ...... that these oscillations are not merely a “Gibbs-like” phenomenon due to the availability of only the visible region of the plane wave spectrum and they are not caused by multiple reflections between the horn and the near-field probe - but resulted from the interference between the direct field and the edge...

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Interaction of hyperalgesia and sensory loss in complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I).

Science.gov (United States)

Huge, Volker; Lauchart, Meike; Förderreuther, Stefanie; Kaufhold, Wibke; Valet, Michael; Azad, Shahnaz Christina; Beyer, Antje; Magerl, Walter

2008-07-23

Sensory abnormalities are a key feature of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS). In order to characterise these changes in patients suffering from acute or chronic CRPS I, we used Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST) in comparison to an age and gender matched control group. 61 patients presenting with CRPS I of the upper extremity and 56 healthy subjects were prospectively assessed using QST. The patients' warm and cold detection thresholds (WDT; CDT), the heat and cold pain thresholds (HPT; CPT) and the occurrence of paradoxical heat sensation (PHS) were observed. In acute CRPS I, patients showed warm and cold hyperalgesia, indicated by significant changes in HPT and CPT. WDT and CDT were significantly increased as well, indicating warm and cold hypoaesthesia. In chronic CRPS, thermal hyperalgesia declined, but CDT as well as WDT further deteriorated. Solely patients with acute CRPS displayed PHS. To a minor degree, all QST changes were also present on the contralateral limb. We propose three pathomechanisms of CRPS I, which follow a distinct time course: Thermal hyperalgesia, observed in acute CRPS, indicates an ongoing aseptic peripheral inflammation. Thermal hypoaesthesia, as detected in acute and chronic CRPS, signals a degeneration of A-delta and C-fibres, which further deteriorates in chronic CRPS. PHS in acute CRPS I indicates that both inflammation and degeneration are present, whilst in chronic CRPS I, the pathomechanism of degeneration dominates, signalled by the absence of PHS. The contralateral changes observed strongly suggest the involvement of the central nervous system.

Investigating the Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfall Depth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Investigating the Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfall Depth Series in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. ... Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal ... for storm duration ranging from 0.5 to 24 hr observed at network of rain gauges sited in Oromia regional state were analyzed using an approach based on moments.

The structure of long tubular bones fractures of lower extremity by the data of the regional bureau of forensic-medical examination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Savka I.H.

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the research is carrying out forensic-medical analysis of cases from expert’s practice with fractures of the long bones based on the findings of the Regional Bureau of Forensic-Medical Examination over 2009-2012 years period. The research has been carried out using methods of statistical and comparative analysis. Their distribution by gender, age, localization, character and type of external influence, the conditions of their occurrence and participation of other persons has been outlined. Fractures of lower extremity bones make up from 15,8 to 22,5% of all the cases of mechanical trauma with lethal outcomes. Therewith male persons suffer more often from injury of the left extremity at different day time and season. The principal mechanism of their origin is injury resulting from road accidents in the countryside with the participation of other persons.

Connectivity in the human brain dissociates entropy and complexity of auditory inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nastase, Samuel A; Iacovella, Vittorio; Davis, Ben; Hasson, Uri

2015-03-01

Complex systems are described according to two central dimensions: (a) the randomness of their output, quantified via entropy; and (b) their complexity, which reflects the organization of a system's generators. Whereas some approaches hold that complexity can be reduced to uncertainty or entropy, an axiom of complexity science is that signals with very high or very low entropy are generated by relatively non-complex systems, while complex systems typically generate outputs with entropy peaking between these two extremes. In understanding their environment, individuals would benefit from coding for both input entropy and complexity; entropy indexes uncertainty and can inform probabilistic coding strategies, whereas complexity reflects a concise and abstract representation of the underlying environmental configuration, which can serve independent purposes, e.g., as a template for generalization and rapid comparisons between environments. Using functional neuroimaging, we demonstrate that, in response to passively processed auditory inputs, functional integration patterns in the human brain track both the entropy and complexity of the auditory signal. Connectivity between several brain regions scaled monotonically with input entropy, suggesting sensitivity to uncertainty, whereas connectivity between other regions tracked entropy in a convex manner consistent with sensitivity to input complexity. These findings suggest that the human brain simultaneously tracks the uncertainty of sensory data and effectively models their environmental generators. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using stochastic space-time models to map extreme precipitation in southern Portugal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. C. Costa

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The topographic characteristics and spatial climatic diversity are significant in the South of continental Portugal where the rainfall regime is typically Mediterranean. Direct sequential cosimulation is proposed for mapping an extreme precipitation index in southern Portugal using elevation as auxiliary information. The analysed index (R5D can be considered a flood indicator because it provides a measure of medium-term precipitation total. The methodology accounts for local data variability and incorporates space-time models that allow capturing long-term trends of extreme precipitation, and local changes in the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation through time. Annual gridded datasets of the flood indicator are produced from 1940 to 1999 on 800 m×800 m grids by using the space-time relationship between elevation and the index. Uncertainty evaluations of the proposed scenarios are also produced for each year. The results indicate that the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation varies locally and has decreased through time over the study region. In wetter years the flood indicator exhibits the highest values in mountainous regions of the South, while in drier years the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation has much less variability over the study region. The uncertainty of extreme precipitation estimates also varies in time and space, and in earlier decades is strongly dependent on the density of the monitoring stations network. The produced maps will be useful in regional and local studies related to climate change, desertification, land and water resources management, hydrological modelling, and flood mitigation planning.

Muscle Hyperalgesia Correlates With Motor Function in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Rooijen, Diana E.; Marinus, Johan; Schouten, Alfred Christiaan; Noldus, Lucas P.J.J.; van Hilten, Jacobus J.

2013-01-01

At present it is unclear if disturbed sensory processing plays a role in the development of the commonly observed motor impairments in patients with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). This study aims to investigate the relation between sensory and motor functioning in CRPS patients with and

Resilience in patients with amputation because of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type I

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bodde, Marlies I.; Schrier, Ernst; Krans, Hilde K.; Geertzen, J.H.B.; Dijkstra, Pieter U.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Although controversial, an amputation for longstanding and therapy-resistant Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type I (CRPS-I) may improve quality of life and pain intensity. Resilience, the way people deal with adversity in a positive way may be related to these positive outcomes. This study

Block-induced Complex Structures Building the Flare-productive Solar Active Region 12673

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun [CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Zhu, Xiaoshuai [Max-Planck Institute for Solar System Research, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany); Song, Qiao, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 (China)

2017-11-10

Solar active region (AR) 12673 produced 4 X-class, 27 M-class, and numerous lower-class flares during its passage across the visible solar disk in 2017 September. Our study is to answer the questions why this AR was so flare-productive and how the X9.3 flare, the largest one of the past decade, took place. We find that there was a sunspot in the initial several days, and then two bipolar regions emerged nearby it successively. Due to the standing of the pre-existing sunspot, the movement of the bipoles was blocked, while the pre-existing sunspot maintained its quasi-circular shaped umbra only with the disappearance of a part of penumbra. Thus, the bipolar patches were significantly distorted, and the opposite polarities formed two semi-circular shaped structures. After that, two sequences of new bipolar regions emerged within the narrow semi-circular zone, and the bipolar patches separated along the curved channel. The new bipoles sheared and interacted with the previous ones, forming a complex topological system, during which numerous flares occurred. At the highly sheared region, a great deal of free energy was accumulated. On September 6, one negative patch near the polarity inversion line began to rapidly rotate and shear with the surrounding positive fields, and consequently the X9.3 flare erupted. Our results reveal that the block-induced complex structures built the flare-productive AR and the X9.3 flare was triggered by an erupting filament due to the kink instability. To better illustrate this process, a block-induced eruption model is proposed for the first time.

The Extreme Right in Eastern Europe and Territorial Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslav Mareš

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This article analyses and compares the different territorial conceptions of the extreme right in Eastern Europe and their political impact, with a view to explaining how important the historical legacy of the supposed territorial and border claims and injustices is for the identity of the extreme right (or their parts in contemporary Eastern Europe. It analyses the historical roots of the territorial claims of the extreme right in the area, the current situation regarding their territorial claims and disputes, and the impact of these territorial claims on domestic politics, on the politics of the extreme right at the European level and on regional security in this area.

Multifractal analysis of forest fires in complex regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vega Orozco, C. D.; Kanevski, M.; Golay, J.; Tonini, M.; Conedera, M.

2012-04-01

Forest fires can be studied as point processes where the ignition points represent the set of locations of the observed events in a defined study region. Their spatial and temporal patterns can be characterized by their fractal properties; which quantify the global aspect of the geometry of the support data. However, a monofractal dimension can not completely describe the pattern structure and related scaling properties. Enhancements in fractal theory had developed the multifractal concept which describes the measures from which interlinked fractal sets can be retrieved and characterized by their fractal dimension and singularity strength [1, 2]. The spatial variability of forest fires is conditioned by an intermixture of human, topographic, meteorological and vegetation factors. This heterogeneity makes fire patterns complex scale-invariant processes difficult to be depicted by a single scale. Therefore, this study proposes an exploratory data analysis through a multifractal formalism to characterize and quantify the multiscaling behaviour of the spatial distribution pattern of this phenomenon in a complex region like the Swiss Alps. The studied dataset is represented by 2,401 georeferenced forest fire ignition points in canton Ticino, Switzerland, in a 40-years period from 1969 to 2008. Three multifractal analyses are performed: one assesses the multiscaling behaviour of fire occurrence probability of the support data (raw data) and four random patterns simulated within three different support domains; second analysis studies the multifractal behavior of patterns from anthropogenic and natural ignited fires (arson-, accident- and lightning-caused fires); and third analysis aims at detecting scale-dependency of the size of burned area. To calculate the generalized dimensions, Dq, a generalization of the box counting methods is carried out based on the generalization of Rényi information of the qth order moment of the probability distribution. For q > 0, Dq

Blood parasites shape extreme major histocompatibility complex diversity in a migratory passerine.

Science.gov (United States)

Biedrzycka, Aleksandra; Bielański, Wojciech; Ćmiel, Adam; Solarz, Wojciech; Zając, Tadeusz; Migalska, Magdalena; Sebastian, Alvaro; Westerdahl, Helena; Radwan, Jacek

2018-06-01

Pathogens are one of the main forces driving the evolution and maintenance of the highly polymorphic genes of the vertebrate major histocompatibility complex (MHC). Although MHC proteins are crucial in pathogen recognition, it is still poorly understood how pathogen-mediated selection promotes and maintains MHC diversity, and especially so in host species with highly duplicated MHC genes. Sedge warblers (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus) have highly duplicated MHC genes, and using data from high-throughput MHC genotyping, we were able to investigate to what extent avian malaria parasites explain temporal MHC class I supertype fluctuations in a long-term study population. We investigated infection status and infection intensities of two different strains of Haemoproteus, that is avian malaria parasites that are known to have significant fitness consequences in sedge warblers. We found that prevalence of avian malaria in carriers of specific MHC class I supertypes was a significant predictor of their frequency changes between years. This finding suggests that avian malaria infections partly drive the temporal fluctuations of the MHC class I supertypes. Furthermore, we found that individuals with a large number of different supertypes had higher resistance to avian malaria, but there was no evidence for an optimal MHC class I diversity. Thus, the two studied malaria parasite strains appear to select for a high MHC class I supertype diversity. Such selection may explain the maintenance of the extremely high number of MHC class I gene copies in sedge warblers and possibly also in other passerines where avian malaria is a common disease. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lymphoscintigraphy of the lower extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbasi, N.Z.

1990-01-01

Fifty one lower extremities of 26 normal healthy volunteers and 26 extremities of 13 patients with oedema have been studied. Dynamic quantitative lymphoscintigraphy using 99Tc-m antimony sulphide colloid during passive exercise as well as before and after active exercise was performed. parameters of lymphatic function including percentage of radioactivity cleared from the injection site, the percentage uptake by the inguinal lymph nodes, the time of arrival of activity at the regional lymph nodes and the lymphatic reserve index have been evaluated. The percentage clearance of activity from the injection site was found technically difficult to standardize and proved to be an unreliable parameter of lymphatic function. However, the quantitation of nodal uptake, the lymphatic transit time and the lymphatic reserve capacity accurately depicted the lymphatic functional status of an individual. The physiologic parameters of lymphatic function of the contralateral lower extremities were compared and a physiologic difference in the lymphatic capacity of the two limbs was scintigraphically documented. (author)

Mitochondrial dysfunction in muscle tissue of complex regional pain syndrome type I patients

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tan, E.C.T.H.; Janssen, A.J.W.M.; Roestenberg, P.M.H.; Heuvel, L.P.W.J. van den; Goris, R.J.A.; Rodenburg, R.J.T.

2011-01-01

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are known to be involved in the pathophysiology of complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I). Since the mitochondrial respiratory chain is a major source of ROS, we hypothesized that mitochondria play a role in the pathophysiology of CRPS I. The hypothesis was

L-edge sum rule analysis on 3d transition metal sites: from d10 to d0 and towards application to extremely dilute metallo-enzymes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongxin; Friedrich, Stephan; Li, Lei; Mao, Ziliang; Ge, Pinghua; Balasubramanian, Mahalingam; Patil, Daulat S

2018-03-28

According to L-edge sum rules, the number of 3d vacancies at a transition metal site is directly proportional to the integrated intensity of the L-edge X-ray absorption spectrum (XAS) for the corresponding metal complex. In this study, the numbers of 3d holes are characterized quantitatively or semi-quantitatively for a series of manganese (Mn) and nickel (Ni) complexes, including the electron configurations 3d 10 → 3d 0 . In addition, extremely dilute (edge jump region; and (2) by adding an inert tracer to the sample that provides a prominent spectral feature to replace the weak edge jump for intensity normalization. In this publication, we present for the first time: (1) L-edge sum rule analysis for a series of Mn and Ni complexes that include electron configurations from an open shell 3d 0 to a closed shell 3d 10 ; (2) a systematic analysis on the uncertainties, especially on that from the edge jump, which was missing in all previous reports; (3) a clearly-resolved edge jump between pre-L 3 and post-L 2 regions from an extremely dilute sample; (4) an evaluation of an alternative normalization standard for L-edge sum rule analysis. XAS from two copper (Cu) proteins measured using a conventional semiconductor X-ray detector are also repeated as bridges between Ni complexes and dilute Ni enzymes. The differences between measuring 1% Cu enzymes and measuring edge sum rule analysis to virtually any 3d metal complex and any dilute biological samples that contain 3d metals.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

Complex researches on substantiation of construction and seismic stability of large dams in seismic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negmatullaev, S.Kh.; Yasunov, P.A.

2001-01-01

This article is devoted to complex researches on substantiation of construction and seismic stability of large dams (Nurec hydroelectric power station) in seismic region. Geological, seismological, model, and engineering investigations are discussed in this work. At construction of Nurec hydroelectric power station the rich experience is accumulated. This experience can be used in analogous seismically active regions at construction similar hydroelectric power stations.

The comparative osteology of the petrotympanic complex (ear region of extant baleen whales (Cetacea: Mysticeti.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric G Ekdale

Full Text Available Anatomical comparisons of the ear region of baleen whales (Mysticeti are provided through detailed osteological descriptions and high-resolution photographs of the petrotympanic complex (tympanic bulla and petrosal bone of all extant species of mysticete cetaceans. Salient morphological features are illustrated and identified, including overall shape of the bulla, size of the conical process of the bulla, morphology of the promontorium, and the size and shape of the anterior process of the petrosal. We place our comparative osteological observations into a phylogenetic context in order to initiate an exploration into petrotympanic evolution within Mysticeti.The morphology of the petrotympanic complex is diagnostic for individual species of baleen whale (e.g., sigmoid and conical processes positioned at midline of bulla in Balaenoptera musculus; confluence of fenestra cochleae and perilymphatic foramen in Eschrichtius robustus, and several mysticete clades are united by derived characteristics. Balaenids and neobalaenids share derived features of the bulla, such as a rhomboid shape and a reduced anterior lobe (swelling in ventral aspect, and eschrichtiids share derived morphologies of the petrosal with balaenopterids, including loss of a medial promontory groove and dorsomedial elongation of the promontorium. Monophyly of Balaenoidea (Balaenidae and Neobalaenidae and Balaenopteroidea (Balaenopteridae and Eschrichtiidae was recovered in phylogenetic analyses utilizing data exclusively from the petrotympanic complex.This study fills a major gap in our knowledge of the complex structures of the mysticete petrotympanic complex, which is an important anatomical region for the interpretation of the evolutionary history of mammals. In addition, we introduce a novel body of phylogenetically informative characters from the ear region of mysticetes. Our detailed anatomical descriptions, illustrations, and comparisons provide valuable data for current and

HE0359-3959: An Extremely Radiating Quasar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martínez-Aldama, M. L.; Del Olmo, A. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, IAA-CSIC, Granada (Spain); Marziani, P. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Padua (Italy); Negrete, C. A. [CONACYT Research Fellow, Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico); Dultzin, D. [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico); Martínez-Carballo, M. A., E-mail: maryloli@iaa.es [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, IAA-CSIC, Granada (Spain)

2017-11-28

We present a multiwavelength spectral study of the quasar HE0359-3959, which has been identified as an extreme radiating source at intermediate redshift (z = 1.5209). Along the spectral range, the different ionic species give information about the substructures in the broad line region. The presence of a powerful outflow with an extreme blueshifted velocity of ~–6,000 ± 500 km s{sup −1} is shown in the Civλ1549 emission line. A prominent blueshifted component is also associated with the 1900Å blend, resembling the one observed in Civλ1549. We detect a strong contribution of very the low–ionization lines, Feii and Near-Infrared Ca ii triplet. We find that the physical conditions for the low, intermediate, and high–ionization emission lines are different, which indicate that the emission lines are emitted in different zones of the broad line region. The asymmetries shown by the profiles reveal different forces over emitter zones. The high–ionization region is strongly dominated by radiation forces, which also affect the low and intermediate–ionization emitter region, commonly governed by virial motions. These results support the idea that highly radiating sources host a slim disk.

Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

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Bo Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

INVESTMENT ACTIVITY OF AGRIBUSINESS IN THE AGROINDUSTRIAL COMPLEX REGION, AS ONE OF THE ELEMENTS OF THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE STATE

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Olga Nikolaevna Uglitskikh

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The developed economic-political situation around of Russia, specifies an indispensability of support of agricultural commodity producers as from their financial well-being, investment activity the financial security of agrarian and industrial complex of the state depends. Limitation of own financial resources at agrarians does not allow them to realize independently conceived projects. Studying of questions of formation and functioning of investment activity in agriculture of Stavropol Territory and an assessment of investment projects offered to reali-zation, have allowed to analyse investment activity of agrarian and industrial complex of region up to the introduction of Russia into WTO and in conditions of its membership. By results of the lead assessment the administrative areas of region showing the greatest investment activity, threats of a financial security of agrarian and industrial complex of region not putting by the activity have been revealed. It is drawn a conclusion on influence West-American sanctions on financial without-danger agra-rian and industrial complex of the state and the responsibility сельхозтоваропроизводителей about delivery of agricultural production in necessary volume and import substitution.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Pinning-controlled synchronization of complex networks with bounded or unbounded synchronized regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan-Li, Zou; Guan-Rong, Chen

2009-01-01

This paper studies pinning-controlled synchronization of complex networks with bounded or unbounded synchronized regions. To study a state-feedback pinning-controlled network with N nodes, it first converts the controlled network to an extended network of N+1 nodes without controls. It is shown that the controlled synchronizability of the given network is determined by the real part of the smallest nonzero eigenvalue of the coupling matrix of its extended network when the synchronized region is unbounded; but it is determined by the ratio of the real parts of the largest and the smallest nonzero eigenvalues of the coupling matrix when the synchronized region is bounded. Both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the portion of controlled nodes has no critical values when the synchronized region is unbounded, but it has a critical value when the synchronized region is bounded. In the former case, therefore, it is possible to control the network to achieve synchronization by pinning only one node. In the latter case, the network can achieve controlled synchronization only when the portion of controlled nodes is larger than the critical value. (general)

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

Computational discovery of extremal microstructure families

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Desai; Skouras, Mélina; Zhu, Bo; Matusik, Wojciech

2018-01-01

Modern fabrication techniques, such as additive manufacturing, can be used to create materials with complex custom internal structures. These engineered materials exhibit a much broader range of bulk properties than their base materials and are typically referred to as metamaterials or microstructures. Although metamaterials with extraordinary properties have many applications, designing them is very difficult and is generally done by hand. We propose a computational approach to discover families of microstructures with extremal macroscale properties automatically. Using efficient simulation and sampling techniques, we compute the space of mechanical properties covered by physically realizable microstructures. Our system then clusters microstructures with common topologies into families. Parameterized templates are eventually extracted from families to generate new microstructure designs. We demonstrate these capabilities on the computational design of mechanical metamaterials and present five auxetic microstructure families with extremal elastic material properties. Our study opens the way for the completely automated discovery of extremal microstructures across multiple domains of physics, including applications reliant on thermal, electrical, and magnetic properties. PMID:29376124

CFT duals for extreme black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartman, Thomas; Strominger, Andrew; Murata, Keiju; Nishioka, Tatsuma

2009-01-01

It is argued that the general four-dimensional extremal Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole is holographically dual to a (chiral half of a) two-dimensional CFT, generalizing an argument given recently for the special case of extremal Kerr. Specifically, the asymptotic symmetries of the near-horizon region of the general extremal black hole are shown to be generated by a Virasoro algebra. Semiclassical formulae are derived for the central charge and temperature of the dual CFT as functions of the cosmological constant, Newton's constant and the black hole charges and spin. We then show, assuming the Cardy formula, that the microscopic entropy of the dual CFT precisely reproduces the macroscopic Bekenstein-Hawking area law. This CFT description becomes singular in the extreme Reissner-Nordstrom limit where the black hole has no spin. At this point a second dual CFT description is proposed in which the global part of the U(1) gauge symmetry is promoted to a Virasoro algebra. This second description is also found to reproduce the area law. Various further generalizations including higher dimensions are discussed.

Regional climate model for predicting meteorological and hydrological extremes - the example of the Rhine river catchment area; Regionales Klimamodell zur Vorhersage meteorologischer und hydrologischer Extremereignisse am Beispiel des Rheineinzugsgebietes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richter, K.G.; Jacob, D.; Ebel, M.; Lenz, C.J.

2000-07-01

Although the forecasting of weather extremes has improved during the past few years, there is still a need of improvement in the accurate analysis and forecasting of extreme weather in practice, especially in the case of violent rain and high water events. Direct coupling of the atmospheric circulation model REMO (REgional-MOdell) with the hydrology model LARSIM (Large Area Runoff SImulation Model) can improve the quality of forecasting. The coupling was achieved in several stages. First, the meteorological state variables were calculated using REMO. The calculated output parameters, precipitation, global radiation, temperature, relative moisture, wind and ground level pressure were used as input for the LARSIM model for calculating high water runoff. The high water event of March 1988 was used as an example. [German] Die Vorhersage extremer meteorologischer Wetterphaenomene hat sich im Laufe der letzten Jahre deutlich verbessert. Dennoch besteht bis heute noch ein grosses Defizit an der genaueren Analyse und Vorhersage extremer meteorologischer Ereignisse und ihrer Auswirkung in der Praxis, insbesondere im Hinblick auf Starkregen und Hochwasserereignisse. Durch die direkte Kopplung des atmosphaerischen Zirkulationsmodells REMO (REgional-MOdell) mit dem Hydrologiemodell LARSIM (Large Aera Runoff Simulation Model) kann die Vorhersagequalitaet fuer extreme meteorologische und hydrologische Situationen erhoeht werden. Die Modellkopplung wird stufenweise durchgefuehrt. Bei der hier vorgestellten Einwegekopplung werden zunaechst die meteorologischen Zustandsgroessen mit dem Regionalmodell REMO berechnet. Als berechneter Modelloutput werden die Parameter Niederschlag, Globalstrahlung, Temperatur, relative Feuchte, Wind und Bodendruck an das Hydrologiemodell LARSIM uebergeben und hiermit der Hochwasserabfluss berechnet. Die Vorgehensweise wird im folgenden fuer das Hochwasser Maerz 1988 beschrieben. (orig.)

Non-Stationary Dependence Structures for Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2016-03-03

Max-stable processes are natural models for spatial extremes because they provide suitable asymptotic approximations to the distribution of maxima of random fields. In the recent past, several parametric families of stationary max-stable models have been developed, and fitted to various types of data. However, a recurrent problem is the modeling of non-stationarity. In this paper, we develop non-stationary max-stable dependence structures in which covariates can be easily incorporated. Inference is performed using pairwise likelihoods, and its performance is assessed by an extensive simulation study based on a non-stationary locally isotropic extremal t model. Evidence that unknown parameters are well estimated is provided, and estimation of spatial return level curves is discussed. The methodology is demonstrated with temperature maxima recorded over a complex topography. Models are shown to satisfactorily capture extremal dependence.

Towards a regional ontology of management education in Africa: A complexity leadership theory perspective

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Nixon M. Ochara

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Orientation: The title of this critique, ‘Towards a regional ontology of management education in Africa: A complexity leadership theory perspective’, sought to capture a paradox in the prescriptive nature and universalistic leaning of current leadership theories; yet local realities may call for being cognisant of (possible extant regional ontologies. Motivation for the study: The argumentation and analysis developed in this article were based on a synthesis of ideas from literature to evolve a preliminary regional ontology for reorienting business and management education relevant for Africa. Research design, approach and method: The critique was structured on insights from complexity leadership theory. The outcome was a proposition for an Afrocentric regional ontology for strengthening business and management education anchored on four themes: ethical and moral engagement, entrepreneurial leadership, Ubuntu and local National Systems of Innovation (NSI. These emerging ideas were considered to be tentative and should be considered as a foundation to inform further inquiry into how business and management education in Africa can be better interpreted and legitimised in the behavioural sciences. Practical/managerial implications: From an Afrocentric perspective, conceptualising and maintaining the logic of leadership was considered to be desirable and imperative in evolving a regional ontology of leadership that takes into account local realities. Of course, we recognised that these defining rationalities are not unique to Africa, but that said; a regional perspective that is unique cannot continue to be ignored but should find their place in discourses about leadership in the 21st century. Contribution/value-add: The synthesis and narrative presented in this paper concisely summarises and provides traction on how to advance business and management education in Africa.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Complex Regional Pain Syndrome following an Episode of Herpes Zoster: A Case Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Marrero, Christopher E; Mclean, Neuyen; Varnado, Keyana

2017-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is characterized by searing pain, hyperalgesia, edema, allodynia, and skin changes. CRPS may be difficult to diagnose and to treat given poorly understood mechanisms as well as its presentation of symptoms that may mimic common conditions such as joint stiffness in this condition as well as rheumatoid arthritis. A 71-year-old female presented to our clinic post shingles of the right upper extremity. We diagnosed her with CRPS based on the Budapest diagnostic criteria and the clinical findings of pain and decreased the range of motion along with edema, hypersensitivity, discoloration and allodynia of the right thumb and index finger. She was treated with vitamin C as well as gabapentin and physical therapy. The patient was unable to go consistently to physical therapy due to insurance limitations, and we found no clinical benefit of vitamin C in reducing her symptoms. She was lost to follow-up during her treatment but re-emerged at 21 months. At that time she reported, she was largely unchanged in regards to her right-hand symptoms but did believe the gabapentin was helpful and still continued to take 300 mg daily. This case report highlights the usefulness of the Budapest diagnostic criteria to make the diagnosis of CRPS when associated with shingles, which can cause long-term pain and mimic some findings. Prompt diagnosis is important, as recovery typically extends beyond 6 months; our patient still reported continued symptoms at 21 months post initial presentation. Our primary treatment plan was physical therapy, which she discontinued due to insurance limitations. We recommend that patients, physicians, and third-party payers work together to extend access to physical therapy. More investigation is warranted regarding symptomatic treatment, as we found limited clinical benefit of gabapentin and vitamin C.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

Science.gov (United States)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Darfur: the various Missions of a complex conflict.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wellington Pereira Carneiro

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The conflict in Darfur represents the worst humanitarian crisis of the new millennium and took place at an extremely introspective time in the UN when all aspects of the peace missions were reviewed and reassessed. Mainly upon release of the Brahimi report published in the year 2000, when the failures in Rwanda, Somalia and Bosnia were conducive to the reassessment of the exaggerated optimism from end of the cold war. However, the complexity of the Darfur conflict demanded again a massive deployment of resources and troops in complex and daring peace missions. This article explores the gradual return to complex operations, first by missions led by regional actors, like AMIS (African Union and EUFOR (European Union. In this context the complex and multifunctional missions led by the UN return, incorporating the protection of populations at risk, human rights and governance, among other components. That way the hybrid UNAMID and MINURCAT appear with ambitious mandates. The UNAMID has to operate along with the display of the International Criminal Court jurisdiction over an ongoing conflict which will entail new developments and challenges.

Complex regional pain syndrome–up-to-date

Science.gov (United States)

Birklein, Frank; Dimova, Violeta

2017-01-01

Abstract Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) was described for the first time in the 19th century by Silas Weir Mitchell. After the exclusion of other causes, CRPS is characterised by a typical clinical constellation of pain, sensory, autonomic, motor, or trophic symptoms which can no longer be explained by the initial trauma. These symptoms spread distally and are not limited to innervation territories. If CRPS is not improved in the acute phase and becomes chronic, the visible symptoms change throughout because of the changing pathophysiology; the pain, however, remains. The diagnosis is primarily clinical, although in complex cases further technical examination mainly for exclusion of alternative diagnoses is warranted. In the initial phase, the pathophysiology is dominated by a posttraumatic inflammatory reaction by the activation of the innate and adaptive immune system. In particular, without adequate treatment, central nociceptive sensitization, reorganisation, and implicit learning processes develop, whereas the inflammation moderates. The main symptoms then include movement disorders, alternating skin temperature, sensory loss, hyperalgesia, and body perception disturbances. Psychological factors such as posttraumatic stress or pain-related fear may impact the course and the treatability of CRPS. The treatment should be ideally adjusted to the pathophysiology. Pharmacological treatment maybe particularly effective in acute stages and includes steroids, bisphosphonates, and dimethylsulfoxide cream. Common anti-neuropathic pain drugs can be recommended empirically. Intravenous long-term ketamine administration has shown efficacy in randomised controlled trials, but its repeated application is demanding and has side effects. Important components of the treatment include physio- and occupational therapy including behavioural therapy (eg, graded exposure in vivo and graded motor imaging). If psychosocial comorbidities exist, patients should be appropriately

Complex regional pain syndrome–up-to-date

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Birklein

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract. Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS was described for the first time in the 19th century by Silas Weir Mitchell. After the exclusion of other causes, CRPS is characterised by a typical clinical constellation of pain, sensory, autonomic, motor, or trophic symptoms which can no longer be explained by the initial trauma. These symptoms spread distally and are not limited to innervation territories. If CRPS is not improved in the acute phase and becomes chronic, the visible symptoms change throughout because of the changing pathophysiology; the pain, however, remains. The diagnosis is primarily clinical, although in complex cases further technical examination mainly for exclusion of alternative diagnoses is warranted. In the initial phase, the pathophysiology is dominated by a posttraumatic inflammatory reaction by the activation of the innate and adaptive immune system. In particular, without adequate treatment, central nociceptive sensitization, reorganisation, and implicit learning processes develop, whereas the inflammation moderates. The main symptoms then include movement disorders, alternating skin temperature, sensory loss, hyperalgesia, and body perception disturbances. Psychological factors such as posttraumatic stress or pain-related fear may impact the course and the treatability of CRPS. The treatment should be ideally adjusted to the pathophysiology. Pharmacological treatment maybe particularly effective in acute stages and includes steroids, bisphosphonates, and dimethylsulfoxide cream. Common anti-neuropathic pain drugs can be recommended empirically. Intravenous long-term ketamine administration has shown efficacy in randomised controlled trials, but its repeated application is demanding and has side effects. Important components of the treatment include physio- and occupational therapy including behavioural therapy (eg, graded exposure in vivo and graded motor imaging. If psychosocial comorbidities exist, patients should

Quantum Statistical Entropy of Non-extreme and Nearly Extreme Black Holes in Higher-Dimensional Space-Time

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XU Dian-Yan

2003-01-01

The free energy and entropy of Reissner-Nordstrom black holes in higher-dimensional space-time are calculated by the quantum statistic method with a brick wall model. The space-time of the black holes is divided into three regions: region 1, (r > r0); region 2, (r0 > r > n); and region 3, (T-J > r > 0), where r0 is the radius of the outer event horizon, and r, is the radius of the inner event horizon. Detailed calculation shows that the entropy contributed by region 2 is zero, the entropy contributed by region 1 is positive and proportional to the outer event horizon area, the entropy contributed by region 3 is negative and proportional to the inner event horizon area. The total entropy contributed by all the three regions is positive and proportional to the area difference between the outer and inner event horizons. As rt approaches r0 in the nearly extreme case, the total quantum statistical entropy approaches zero.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

The Responsive Amygdala: Treatment-induced Alterations in Functional Connectivity in Pediatric Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Simons, LE; Pielech, M; Erpelding, N; Linnman, C; Moulton, E; Sava, S; Lebel, A; Serrano, P; Sethna, N; Berde, C; Becerra, L; Borsook, D

2014-01-01

The amygdala is a key brain region with efferent and afferent neural connections that involve complex behaviors such as pain, reward, fear and anxiety. This study evaluated resting state functional connectivity of the amygdala with cortical and subcortical regions in a group of chronic pain patients (pediatric complex regional pain syndrome) with age-gender matched controls before and after intensive physical-biobehavioral pain treatment. Our main findings include (1) enhanced functional connectivity from the amygdala to multiple cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar regions in patients compared to controls, with differences predominantly in the left amygdala in the pre-treated condition (disease state); (2) dampened hyperconnectivity from the left amygdala to the motor cortex, parietal lobe, and cingulate cortex after intensive pain rehabilitation treatment within patients with nominal differences observed among healthy controls from Time 1 to Time 2 (treatment effects); (3) functional connectivity to several regions key to fear circuitry (prefrontal cortex, bilateral middle temporal lobe, bilateral cingulate, hippocampus) correlated with higher pain-related fear scores and (4) decreases in pain-related fear associated with decreased connectivity between the amygdala and the motor and somatosensory cortex, cingulate, and frontal areas. Our data suggest that there are rapid changes in amygdala connectivity following an aggressive treatment program in children with chronic pain and intrinsic amygdala functional connectivity activity serving as a potential indicator of treatment response. PMID:24861582

The attitudes of neonatal nurses towards extremely preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, Katie; Marlow, Neil; Edgley, Alison; Porock, Davina

2012-08-01

The paper is a report of a study of the attitudes of neonatal nurses towards extremely preterm infants. Alongside advancing survival at extremely preterm gestational ages, ethical debates concerning the provision of invasive care have proliferated in light of the high morbidity. Despite nurses being the healthcare professionals who work closest with the infant and their family, their potential influence is usually ignored when determining how parents come to decisions about future care for their extremely premature infant. A Q methodology was employed to explore the attitudes of neonatal nurses towards caring for extremely preterm infants. Data were collected between 2007 and 2008 and analysed using PQMethod and Card Content Analysis. Thirty-six nurses from six neonatal units in the United Kingdom participated. Although there was consensus around the professional role of the nurse, when faced with the complexities of neonatal nursing three distinguishing factors emerged: the importance of parental choice in decision-making, the belief that technology should be used to assess response to treatment, and the belief that healthcare professionals should undertake difficult decisions. Neonatal nurses report unexpected difficulties in upholding their professionally defined role through highly complex and ever varied decision-making processes. Recognition of individual attitudes to the care of extremely preterm infants and the role of the family in the face of difficult decisions should facilitate more open communication between the nurse and the parents and improve the experience of both the nurse and the family during these emotional situations. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Highly refractory Archaean peridotite cumulates: Petrology and geochemistry of the Seqi Ultramafic Complex, SW Greenland

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Kristoffer Szilas

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the petrogenesis of the Seqi Ultramafic Complex, which covers a total area of approximately 0.5 km2. The ultramafic rocks are hosted by tonalitic orthogneiss of the ca. 3000 Ma Akia terrane with crosscutting granitoid sheets providing an absolute minimum age of 2978 ± 8 Ma for the Seqi Ultramafic Complex. The Seqi rocks represent a broad range of olivine-dominated plutonic rocks with varying modal amounts of chromite, orthopyroxene and amphibole, i.e. various types of dunite (s.s., peridotite (s.l., as well as chromitite. The Seqi Ultramafic Complex is characterised primarily by refractory dunite, with highly forsteritic olivine with core compositions having Mg# ranging from about 91 to 93. The overall high modal contents, as well as the specific compositions, of chromite rule out that these rocks represent a fragment of Earth's mantle. The occurrence of stratiform chromitite bands in peridotite, thin chromite layers in dunite and poikilitic orthopyroxene in peridotite instead supports the interpretation that the Seqi Ultramafic Complex represents the remnant of a fragmented layered complex or a magma conduit, which was subsequently broken up and entrained during the formation of the regional continental crust.Integrating all of the characteristics of the Seqi Ultramafic Complex points to formation of these highly refractory peridotites from an extremely magnesian (Mg# ∼ 80, near-anhydrous magma, as olivine-dominated cumulates with high modal contents of chromite. It is noted that the Seqi cumulates were derived from a mantle source by extreme degrees of partial melting (>40%. This mantle source could potentially represent the precursor for the sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM in this region, which has previously been shown to be ultra-depleted. The Seqi Ultramafic Complex, as well as similar peridotite bodies in the Fiskefjord region, may thus constitute the earliest cumulates that formed during the

Bayesian Modeling of Air Pollution Extremes Using Nested Multivariate Max-Stable Processes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2018-01-01

Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $\\alpha$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and interpretable characterization. We fit this nested multivariate max-stable model to the maxima of air pollution concentrations and temperatures recorded at a number of sites in the Los Angeles area, showing that the proposed model succeeds in capturing their complex tail dependence structure.

Bayesian Modeling of Air Pollution Extremes Using Nested Multivariate Max-Stable Processes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2018-03-18

Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $\\\\alpha$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and interpretable characterization. We fit this nested multivariate max-stable model to the maxima of air pollution concentrations and temperatures recorded at a number of sites in the Los Angeles area, showing that the proposed model succeeds in capturing their complex tail dependence structure.

Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

To the limit of extreme malnutrition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frølich, Jacob; Buskbjerg, Camilla Viola; Støving, Rene K

2016-01-01

Extreme malnutrition with body mass index (BMI) as low as 10 kg/m(2) is not uncommon in anorexia nervosa, with survival enabled through complex metabolic adaptations. In contrast, outcomes from hunger strikes and famines are usually fatal after weight loss to about 40% below expected body weight...... malnutrition has not previously been reported. The present case emphasizes the importance of adherence...

Interaction of hyperalgesia and sensory loss in complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I.

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Volker Huge

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sensory abnormalities are a key feature of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS. In order to characterise these changes in patients suffering from acute or chronic CRPS I, we used Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST in comparison to an age and gender matched control group. METHODS: 61 patients presenting with CRPS I of the upper extremity and 56 healthy subjects were prospectively assessed using QST. The patients' warm and cold detection thresholds (WDT; CDT, the heat and cold pain thresholds (HPT; CPT and the occurrence of paradoxical heat sensation (PHS were observed. RESULTS: In acute CRPS I, patients showed warm and cold hyperalgesia, indicated by significant changes in HPT and CPT. WDT and CDT were significantly increased as well, indicating warm and cold hypoaesthesia. In chronic CRPS, thermal hyperalgesia declined, but CDT as well as WDT further deteriorated. Solely patients with acute CRPS displayed PHS. To a minor degree, all QST changes were also present on the contralateral limb. CONCLUSIONS: We propose three pathomechanisms of CRPS I, which follow a distinct time course: Thermal hyperalgesia, observed in acute CRPS, indicates an ongoing aseptic peripheral inflammation. Thermal hypoaesthesia, as detected in acute and chronic CRPS, signals a degeneration of A-delta and C-fibres, which further deteriorates in chronic CRPS. PHS in acute CRPS I indicates that both inflammation and degeneration are present, whilst in chronic CRPS I, the pathomechanism of degeneration dominates, signalled by the absence of PHS. The contralateral changes observed strongly suggest the involvement of the central nervous system.

Pulsed Radiofrequency Treatment of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: A Case Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlad Djuric

2014-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Various forms of sympathetic chain neurolysis (sympathectomy have, at one time or another, held promise as effective treatment options for complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS. Complications, such as worsening pain and the development of new pain syndromes, have prevented sympathectomy from emerging as a standard intervention. In an effort to avoid poor outcomes associated with neurolysis, pulsed radiofrequency (PRF has been proposed as a potential treatment alternative for a number of chronic neuropathic pain states, including some forms of CRPS.

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

On causality of extreme events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Zanin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

2017-12-01

Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

Cerebral activation during motor imagery in complex regional pain syndrome type 1 with dystonia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gieteling, Esther W.; van Rijn, Monique A.; de Jong, Bauke M.; Hoogduin, Johannes M.; Renken, Remco; van Hilten, Jacobus J.; Leenders, Klaus L.

The pathogenesis of dystonia in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type 1 (CRPS-1) is unclear. In primary dystonia, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has revealed changes in cerebral networks during execution of movement. The aim of this study was to determine cerebral network function in

The Mediterranean Moisture Contribution to Climatological and Extreme Monthly Continental Precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danica Ciric

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Moisture transport from its sources to surrounding continents is one of the most relevant topics in hydrology, and its role in extreme events is crucial for understanding several processes such as intense precipitation and flooding. In this study, we considered the Mediterranean Sea as the main water source and estimated its contribution to the monthly climatological and extreme precipitation events over the surrounding continental areas. To assess the effect of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation, we used the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP database to characterize precipitation. The Lagrangian dispersion model known as FLEXPART was used to estimate the moisture contribution of this source. This contribution was estimated by tracking particles that leave the Mediterranean basin monthly and then calculating water loss (E − P < 0 over the continental region, which was modelled by FLEXPART. The analysis was conducted using data from 1980 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. The results showed that, in general, the spatial pattern of the Mediterranean source’s contribution to precipitation, unlike climatology, is similar during extreme precipitation years in the regions under study. However, while the Mediterranean Sea is usually not an important source of climatological precipitation for some European regions, it is a significant source during extreme precipitation years.

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

WEAK LINE QUASARS AT HIGH REDSHIFT: EXTREMELY HIGH ACCRETION RATES OR ANEMIC BROAD-LINE REGIONS?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shemmer, Ohad; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Netzer, Hagai; Anderson, Scott F.; Brandt, W. N.; Schneider, Donald P.; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M.; Fan Xiaohui; Lira, Paulina; Plotkin, Richard M.; Richards, Gordon T.; Strauss, Michael A.

2010-01-01

We present Gemini-North K-band spectra of two representative members of the class of high-redshift quasars with exceptionally weak rest-frame ultraviolet emission lines (WLQs), SDSS J114153.34+021924.3 at z = 3.55 and SDSS J123743.08+630144.9 at z = 3.49. In both sources, we detect an unusually weak broad Hβ line and place tight upper limits on the strengths of their [O III] lines. Virial, Hβ-based black hole mass determinations indicate normalized accretion rates of L/L Edd =0.4 for these sources, which is well within the range observed for typical quasars with similar luminosities and redshifts. We also present high-quality XMM-Newton imaging spectroscopy of SDSS J114153.34+021924.3 and find a hard-X-ray photon index of Γ = 1.91 +0.24 -0.22 , which supports the virial L/L Edd determination in this source. Our results suggest that the weakness of the broad emission lines in WLQs is not a consequence of an extreme continuum-emission source but instead due to abnormal broad emission line region properties.

Immunological aspects of the complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS).

Science.gov (United States)

Krämer, Heidrun H

2012-01-01

Limb trauma can lead to the development of a complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). CRPS is a descriptive term of a variety of different symptoms. According to the current IASP-approved criteria, human CRPS can be diagnosed if a combination of signs is present: continuing pain and hyperalgesia, disproportionate to the initial trauma, skin temperature and colour asymmetry, sweating asymmetry, edema, decreased range of motion, and trophic changes. The diagnosis and treatment of human CRPS can be demanding and the pathophysiology underlying the disease is still under investigation. Immunological aspects are considered to play an important role in the development of CRPS. The impact of elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines systemically as well as locally, increased neurogenic inflammation and auto-antibodies in the pathophysiological development of CRPS are discussed in this review.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

Regional molecular and cellular differences in the female rabbit Achilles tendon complex: potential implications for understanding responses to loading.

Science.gov (United States)

Huisman, Elise S; Andersson, Gustav; Scott, Alexander; Reno, Carol R; Hart, David A; Thornton, Gail M

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was: (i) to analyze the morphology and expression of extracellular matrix genes in six different regions of the Achilles tendon complex of intact normal rabbits; and (ii) to assess the effect of ovariohysterectomy (OVH) on the regional expression of these genes. Female New Zealand White rabbits were separated into two groups: (i) intact normal rabbits (n = 4); and (ii) OVH rabbits (n = 8). For each rabbit, the Achilles tendon complex was dissected into six regions: distal gastrocnemius (DG); distal flexor digitorum superficialis; proximal lateral gastrocnemius (PLG); proximal medial gastrocnemius; proximal flexor digitorum superficialis; and paratenon. For each of the regions, hematoxylin and eosin staining was performed for histological evaluation of intact normal rabbit tissues and mRNA levels for proteoglycans, collagens and genes associated with collagen regulation were assessed by real-time reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction for both the intact normal and OVH rabbit tissues. The distal regions displayed a more fibrocartilaginous phenotype. For intact normal rabbits, aggrecan mRNA expression was higher in the distal regions of the Achilles tendon complex compared with the proximal regions. Collagen Type I and matrix metalloproteinase-2 expression levels were increased in the PLG compared to the DG in the intact normal rabbit tissues. The tendons from OVH rabbits had lower gene expressions for the proteoglycans aggrecan, biglycan, decorin and versican compared with the intact normal rabbits, although the regional differences of increased aggrecan expression in distal regions compared with proximal regions persisted. The tensile and compressive forces experienced in the examined regions may be related to the regional differences found in gene expression. The lower mRNA expression of the genes examined in the OVH group confirms a potential effect of systemic estrogen on tendon. © 2014 Anatomical Society.

Evaluation of low level laser and interferential current in the therapy of complex regional pain syndrome by infrared thermographic camera

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Kocić Mirjana

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Complex regional pain syndrome type I (CRPS I is characterized by continuous regional pain, disproportional according to duration and intensity and to the sort of trauma or other lesion it was caused by. The aim of the study was to evaluate and compare, by using thermovison, the effects of low level laser therapy and therapy with interferential current in treatment of CRPS I. Methods. The prospective randomized controlled clinical study included 45 patients with unilateral CRPS I, after a fracture of the distal end of the radius, of the tibia and/or the fibula, treated in the Clinical Centre in Nis from 2004 to 2007. The group A consisted of 20 patients treated by low level laser therapy and kinesy-therapy, while the patients in the group B (n = 25 were treated by interferential current and kinesy-therapy. The regions of interest were filmed by a thermovision camera on both sides, before and after the 20 therapeutic procedures had been applied. Afterwards, the quantitative analysis and the comparing of thermograms taken before and after the applied therapy were performed. Results. There was statistically significant decrease of the mean maximum temperature difference between the injured and the contralateral extremity after the therapy in comparison to the status before the therapy, with the patients of the group A (p < 0.001 as well as those of the group B (p < 0.001. The decrease was statistically significantly higher in the group A than in the group B (p < 0.05. Conclusions. By the use of the infrared thermovision we showed that in the treatment of CRPS I both physical medicine methods were effective, but the effectiveness of laser therapy was statistically significantly higher compared to that of the interferential current therapy.

ECOLOGICAL SAFETY OF MINING REGIONS THROUGH CREATION OF POWER‐HEATING COMPLEXES (in Russian

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. YEFREMOV

2014-04-01

Full Text Available There was presented a method of use of alterative source of energy, namely coal mine methane, the use of which as a fuel for power and heatiing generation is a main direction in coal mines. By this means some ecological problems of the region are solved. Highly efficient power and heating technologies are implemented and energy complexes are established.

Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

Science.gov (United States)

An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

High current density ion beam obtained by a transition to a highly focused state in extremely low-energy region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirano, Y., E-mail: y.hirano@aist.go.jp, E-mail: hirano.yoichi@phys.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp [Innovative Plasma Processing Group, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8568 (Japan); College of Science and Technologies, Nihon University, Chiyodaku, Tokyo 101-0897 (Japan); Kiyama, S.; Koguchi, H. [Innovative Plasma Processing Group, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8568 (Japan); Fujiwara, Y.; Sakakita, H. [Innovative Plasma Processing Group, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8568 (Japan); Department of Engineering Mechanics and Energy, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577 (Japan)

2015-11-15

A high current density (≈3 mA/cm{sup 2}) hydrogen ion beam source operating in an extremely low-energy region (E{sub ib} ≈ 150–200 eV) has been realized by using a transition to a highly focused state, where the beam is extracted from the ion source chamber through three concave electrodes with nominal focal lengths of ≈350 mm. The transition occurs when the beam energy exceeds a threshold value between 145 and 170 eV. Low-level hysteresis is observed in the transition when E{sub ib} is being reduced. The radial profiles of the ion beam current density and the low temperature ion current density can be obtained separately using a Faraday cup with a grid in front. The measured profiles confirm that more than a half of the extracted beam ions reaches the target plate with a good focusing profile with a full width at half maximum of ≈3 cm. Estimation of the particle balances in beam ions, the slow ions, and the electrons indicates the possibility that the secondary electron emission from the target plate and electron impact ionization of hydrogen may play roles as particle sources in this extremely low-energy beam after the compensation of beam ion space charge.

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

Major amputation for intractable extremity melanoma after failure of isolated limb perfusion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kapma, M. R.; Vrouenraets, B. C.; Nieweg, O. E.; van Geel, A. N.; Noorda, E. M.; Eggermont, A. M. M.; Kroon, B. B. R.

2005-01-01

AIM: The aim of this study was to analyse indications and results of amputation for intractable extremity melanoma after failure of isolated limb perfusion (ILP). METHODS: Between 1978 and 2001, 451 patients with loco-regional advanced extremity melanoma underwent 505 ILPs. Amputation of the

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-04-01

In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Extreme Hurricane-Generated Waves in Gulf of Mexico

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Alberto, Carlos; Fernandes, Santos

2005-01-01

.... Although WaveWatchIII (WW3) is used by many operational forecasting centers around the world, there is a lack of field studies to evaluate its accuracy in regional applications and under extreme conditions, such as Hurricanes...

Estimation of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves for extreme precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

1998-01-01

of regional homogeneity and identification of a proper regional distribution L-moment analysis is applied. To analyse the regional variability in more detail, a generalised least squares regression analysis is carried out that relates the PDS model parameters to climatic and physiographic characteristics...

Complex regional pain syndrome type I following pacemaker implantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangita Kamath

2015-12-01

Full Text Available A 70-year-old woman presented with burning pain and swelling over dorsum of right hand and small joints of the fingers, associated with redness, feeling of warmth, and stiffness of the fingers, with inability to bend the fingers since 2 months. The symptoms were progressively increasing in intensity for the past 1 month. There was no history of fever or trauma to the hand. Two months before her symptoms started, she had permanent pacemaker implanted for complete heart block with syncope. She was hypertensive and was on regular medication. Her X-ray of right hand showed decreased bone density (demineralisation, suggestive of osteopenia. A diagnosis of reflex sympathetic dystrophy syndrome or complex regional pain syndrome type I induced by pacemaker insertion was made. She was treated with amitriptyline and steroids, after which her symptoms improved dramatically.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

2011-10-15

Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2016-04-01

How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

Extreme pollution of soils by emissions of the copper-nickel industrial complex in the Kola Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Kashulina, G. M.

2017-07-01

The distribution of the total Ni, Cu, Co, Cd, Pb, and Zn contents was studied in the soil profiles of six catenas in the zone subjected to emissions of the copper-nickel industrial complex, which is the largest source of SO2 and heavy metals in northern Europe. The results show that, at present, the concentrations of Ni and Cu in the upper organic soil horizons in the impact zone reach extreme levels of 9000 and 6000 mg/kg, respectively. Under conditions of the long-term intense multi-element industrial emissions, the modern levels of the accumulation of polluting substances in soils greatly depend on the indirect factors, such as the degree of the technogenic degradation of soils with the loss of a significant part of soil organic matter, the reaching of threshold saturation of the topsoil with polluting metals, and competitive relationships between chemical elements. The state of the ecosystems in the impact zone varied greatly and did not always agree with the contents of the main metals-pollutants in the soils. The moisture conditions determined by the landscape position affected significantly the resistance of the ecosystems to emissions.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

The Disordered C-Terminus of Yeast Hsf1 Contains a Cryptic Low-Complexity Amyloidogenic Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Pujols

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Response mechanisms to external stress rely on networks of proteins able to activate specific signaling pathways to ensure the maintenance of cell proteostasis. Many of the proteins mediating this kind of response contain intrinsically disordered regions, which lack a defined structure, but still are able to interact with a wide range of clients that modulate the protein function. Some of these interactions are mediated by specific short sequences embedded in the longer disordered regions. Because the physicochemical properties that promote functional and abnormal interactions are similar, it has been shown that, in globular proteins, aggregation-prone and binding regions tend to overlap. It could be that the same principle applies for disordered protein regions. In this context, we show here that a predicted low-complexity interacting region in the disordered C-terminus of the stress response master regulator heat shock factor 1 (Hsf1 protein corresponds to a cryptic amyloid region able to self-assemble into fibrillary structures resembling those found in neurodegenerative disorders.

The Disordered C-Terminus of Yeast Hsf1 Contains a Cryptic Low-Complexity Amyloidogenic Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Pujols, Jordi; Santos, Jaime; Pallarès, Irantzu; Ventura, Salvador

2018-05-06

Response mechanisms to external stress rely on networks of proteins able to activate specific signaling pathways to ensure the maintenance of cell proteostasis. Many of the proteins mediating this kind of response contain intrinsically disordered regions, which lack a defined structure, but still are able to interact with a wide range of clients that modulate the protein function. Some of these interactions are mediated by specific short sequences embedded in the longer disordered regions. Because the physicochemical properties that promote functional and abnormal interactions are similar, it has been shown that, in globular proteins, aggregation-prone and binding regions tend to overlap. It could be that the same principle applies for disordered protein regions. In this context, we show here that a predicted low-complexity interacting region in the disordered C-terminus of the stress response master regulator heat shock factor 1 (Hsf1) protein corresponds to a cryptic amyloid region able to self-assemble into fibrillary structures resembling those found in neurodegenerative disorders.

Current state and development trends of the agroindustrial complex and rural territories of Perm Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gennadiy Vladimirovich Klimenkov

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Analysis of regional agricultural sector status and rural areas of Perm in 1990-2011 years indicates a systemic crisis of agriculture in Perm region, which is largely determined by the fact that Perm region has no strategy or strategic plan and program for sustainable agricultural sector and rural areas of Perm region development, there is no scheme of territorial development and master plans of territorial development with the development of agro-industrial complex of Perm region. In these circumstances, there is a steady downward trend in production, weakening and bankruptcy of enterprises, social impoverishment of rural areas, appearance of many of irreversible processes (sale and neglect of agricultural land, demographic problems associated with low living standards, population migration, policy optimization in the areas of education and health, union of territories, policy of depopulation of territories etc.. This paper presents main recommendations for improving the situation in agriculture of Perm region.

The discrete and localized nature of the variable emission from active regions

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Martina Belz; Habbal, Shadia Rifai; Karovska, Margarita

1994-01-01

Using data from the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Spectroheliometer on Skylab, we study the empirical characteristics of the variable emission in active regions. These simultaneous multi-wavelength observations clearly confirm that active regions consist of a complex of loops at different temperatures. The variable emission from this complex has very well-defined properties that can be quantitatively summarized as follows: (1) It is localized predominantly around the footpoints where it occurs at discrete locations. (2) The strongest variability does not necessarily coincide with the most intense emission. (3) The fraction of the area of the footpoints, (delta n)/N, that exhibits variable emission, varies by +/- 15% as a function of time, at any of the wavelengths measured. It also varies very little from footpoint to footpoint. (4) This fractional variation is temperature dependent with a maximum around 10(exp 5) K. (5) The ratio of the intensity of the variable to the average background emission, (delta I)/(bar-I), also changes with temperature. In addition, we find that these distinctive characteristics persist even when flares occur within the active region.

Application of digital tomosynthesis in diagnosing the fractures or dislocations in irregular bones and regions with complex structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuerdi, Batuer; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Ying; Zhou, Hao; Zhang, Hao

2015-01-01

The application potential of digital tomosynthesis in diagnosing fractures or dislocations in irregular bones and regions with complex structures was evaluated. Digital radiography and tomosynthesis were performed in 121 patients, and the image quality, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were compared. The number of participants with a definite diagnosis of fracture and/or dislocation was 98. The ratio of excellent images, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of digital tomosynthesis were higher than that of direct radiography. Digital tomosynthesis could be applied in the diagnosis of fractures or dislocations in irregular bones and regions with complex structures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exome sequencing in schizophrenic patients with high levels of homozygosity identifies novel and extremely rare mutations in the GABA/glutamatergic pathways.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edoardo Giacopuzzi

Full Text Available Inbreeding is a known risk factor for recessive Mendelian diseases and previous studies have suggested that it could also play a role in complex disorders, such as psychiatric diseases. Recent inbreeding results in the presence of long runs of homozygosity (ROHs along the genome, which are also defined as autozygosity regions. Genetic variants in these regions have two alleles that are identical by descent, thus increasing the odds of bearing rare recessive deleterious mutations due to a homozygous state. A recent study showed a suggestive enrichment of long ROHs in schizophrenic patients, suggesting that recent inbreeding could play a role in the disease. To better understand the impact of autozygosity on schizophrenia risk, we selected, from a cohort of 180 Italian patients, seven subjects with extremely high numbers of large ROHs that were likely due to recent inbreeding and characterized the mutational landscape within their ROHs using Whole Exome Sequencing and, gene set enrichment analysis. We identified a significant overlap (17%; empirical p-value = 0.0171 between genes inside ROHs affected by low frequency functional homozygous variants (107 genes and the group of most promising candidate genes mutated in schizophrenia. Moreover, in four patients, we identified novel and extremely rare damaging mutations in the genes involved in neurodevelopment (MEGF8 and in GABA/glutamatergic synaptic transmission (GAD1, FMN1, ANO2. These results provide insights into the contribution of rare recessive mutations and inbreeding as risk factors for schizophrenia. ROHs that are likely due to recent inbreeding harbor a combination of predisposing low-frequency variants and extremely rare variants that have a high impact on pivotal biological pathways implicated in the disease. In addition, this study confirms that focusing on patients with high levels of homozygosity could be a useful prioritization strategy for discovering new high-impact mutations in

Exome sequencing in schizophrenic patients with high levels of homozygosity identifies novel and extremely rare mutations in the GABA/glutamatergic pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Giacopuzzi, Edoardo; Gennarelli, Massimo; Minelli, Alessandra; Gardella, Rita; Valsecchi, Paolo; Traversa, Michele; Bonvicini, Cristian; Vita, Antonio; Sacchetti, Emilio; Magri, Chiara

2017-01-01

Inbreeding is a known risk factor for recessive Mendelian diseases and previous studies have suggested that it could also play a role in complex disorders, such as psychiatric diseases. Recent inbreeding results in the presence of long runs of homozygosity (ROHs) along the genome, which are also defined as autozygosity regions. Genetic variants in these regions have two alleles that are identical by descent, thus increasing the odds of bearing rare recessive deleterious mutations due to a homozygous state. A recent study showed a suggestive enrichment of long ROHs in schizophrenic patients, suggesting that recent inbreeding could play a role in the disease. To better understand the impact of autozygosity on schizophrenia risk, we selected, from a cohort of 180 Italian patients, seven subjects with extremely high numbers of large ROHs that were likely due to recent inbreeding and characterized the mutational landscape within their ROHs using Whole Exome Sequencing and, gene set enrichment analysis. We identified a significant overlap (17%; empirical p-value = 0.0171) between genes inside ROHs affected by low frequency functional homozygous variants (107 genes) and the group of most promising candidate genes mutated in schizophrenia. Moreover, in four patients, we identified novel and extremely rare damaging mutations in the genes involved in neurodevelopment (MEGF8) and in GABA/glutamatergic synaptic transmission (GAD1, FMN1, ANO2). These results provide insights into the contribution of rare recessive mutations and inbreeding as risk factors for schizophrenia. ROHs that are likely due to recent inbreeding harbor a combination of predisposing low-frequency variants and extremely rare variants that have a high impact on pivotal biological pathways implicated in the disease. In addition, this study confirms that focusing on patients with high levels of homozygosity could be a useful prioritization strategy for discovering new high-impact mutations in genetically

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

2014-01-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

[Complexity of care and organizational effectiveness: a survey among medical care units in nine Lombardy region hospitals].

Science.gov (United States)

Pasquali, Sara; Capitoni, Enrica; Tiraboschi, Giuseppina; Alborghetti, Adriana; De Luca, Giuseppe; Di Mauro, Stefania

2017-01-01

Eleven medical care units of nine Lombardy Region hospitals organized by levels of care model or by the traditional departmental model have been analyzed, in order to evaluate if methods for complexity of patient-care evaluation represent an index factor of nursing organizational effectiveness. Survey with nine Nurses in managerial position was conducted between Nov. 2013-Jan. 2014. The following factors have been described: context and nursing care model, staffing, complexity evaluation, patient satisfaction, staff well-being. Data were processed through Microsoft Excel. Among Units analysed ,all Units in levels of care and one organized by the departmental model systematically evaluate nursing complexity. Registered Nurses (RN) and Health Care Assistants (HCA) are on average numerically higher in Units that measure complexity (0.55/ 0.49 RN, 0.38/0.23 HCA - ratio per bed). Adopted measures in relation to changes in complexity are:rewarding systems, supporting interventions, such as moving personnel within different Units or additional required working hours; reduction in number of beds is adopted when no other solution is available. Patient satisfaction is evaluated through Customer Satisfaction questionnaires. Turnover, stress and rate of absenteeism data are not available in all Units. Complexity evaluation through appropriate methods is carried out in all hospitals organized in levels of care with personalized nursing care models, though complexity is detected with different methods. No significant differences in applied managerial strategies are present. Patient's satisfaction is evaluated everywhere. Data on staffing wellbeing is scarcely available. Coordinated regional actions are recommended in order to gather comparable data for research, improve decision making and effectiveness of Nursing care.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Phenology: Drought-Induced Changes in Productivity of Mixed Woody-Herbaceous Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, P. M.; Breshears, D. D.; White, A. B.

2006-12-01

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "greenup" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody- herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional scale piñon pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous greenup following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.

Characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Vosges Mountains region (north-eastern France)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Minářová, Jana; Müller, Miloslav; Clappier, A.; Kašpar, Marek

2017-01-01

Roč. 37, č. 13 (2017), s. 4529-4542 ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Vosges Mountains * extreme precipitation * heavy rainfall * WEI * synoptic conditions * precipitation * Grosswetterlagen * trend analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5102/abstract

Mitochondrial Complex 1 Activity Measured by Spectrophotometry Is Reduced across All Brain Regions in Ageing and More Specifically in Neurodegeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, Amelia Kate; Craig, Emma Louise; Chakrabarti, Lisa

2016-01-01

Mitochondrial function, in particular complex 1 of the electron transport chain (ETC), has been shown to decrease during normal ageing and in neurodegenerative disease. However, there is some debate concerning which area of the brain has the greatest complex 1 activity. It is important to identify the pattern of activity in order to be able to gauge the effect of age or disease related changes. We determined complex 1 activity spectrophotometrically in the cortex, brainstem and cerebellum of middle aged mice (70-71 weeks), a cerebellar ataxic neurodegeneration model (pcd5J) and young wild type controls. We share our updated protocol on the measurements of complex1 activity and find that mitochondrial fractions isolated from frozen tissues can be measured for robust activity. We show that complex 1 activity is clearly highest in the cortex when compared with brainstem and cerebellum (p<0.003). Cerebellum and brainstem mitochondria exhibit similar levels of complex 1 activity in wild type brains. In the aged brain we see similar levels of complex 1 activity in all three-brain regions. The specific activity of complex 1 measured in the aged cortex is significantly decreased when compared with controls (p<0.0001). Both the cerebellum and brainstem mitochondria also show significantly reduced activity with ageing (p<0.05). The mouse model of ataxia predictably has a lower complex 1 activity in the cerebellum, and although reductions are measured in the cortex and brain stem, the remaining activity is higher than in the aged brains. We present clear evidence that complex 1 activity decreases across the brain with age and much more specifically in the cerebellum of the pcd5j mouse. Mitochondrial impairment can be a region specific phenomenon in disease, but in ageing appears to affect the entire brain, abolishing the pattern of higher activity in cortical regions.

Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Dao

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

PROPERTIES OF THE COMPACT H II REGION COMPLEX G-0.02-0.07

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, E.; Morris, M. R.; Lang, C. C.; Dong, H.; Wang, Q. D.; Cotera, A.; Stolovy, S. R.

2011-01-01

We present new extinction maps and high-resolution Paschen-alpha images of G-0.02-0.07, a complex of compact H II regions located adjacent to the M-0.02-0.07 giant molecular cloud, 6 pc in projection from the center of the Galaxy. These H II regions, which lie in projection just outside the boundary of the Sgr A East supernova remnant, represent one of the most recent episodes of star formation in the central parsecs of the Galaxy. The 1.87 μm extinctions of regions A, B, and C are almost identical, approximately 3.7 mag. Region D, in contrast, has a peak extinction of A 1.87 = 5.9 mag. Adopting an extinction law specific to the Galactic center, we find that these extinctions correspond to visual extinctions of A V = 45 and A V = 71. The similar and uniform extinctions of regions A, B, and C are consistent with that expected for foreground extinction in the direction of the Galactic center, suggesting that they lie at the front side of the M-0.02-0.07 molecular cloud. Region D is more compact, has a higher extinction, and is thus suspected to be younger and embedded in a dense core in a compressed ridge on the western edge of this cloud.

Nonlinear wave-mixing processes in the extreme ultraviolet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Misoguti, L.; Christov, I. P.; Backus, S.; Murnane, M. M.; Kapteyn, H. C.

2005-01-01

We present data from two-color high-order harmonic generation in a hollow waveguide, that suggest the presence of a nonlinear-optical frequency conversion process driven by extreme ultraviolet light. By combining the fundamental and second harmonic of an 800 nm laser in a hollow-core fiber, with varying relative polarizations, and by observing the pressure and power scaling of the various harmonic orders, we show that the data are consistent with a picture where we drive the process of high-harmonic generation, which in turn drives four-wave frequency mixing processes in the extreme EUV. This work promises a method for extending nonlinear optics into the extreme ultraviolet region of the spectrum using an approach that has not previously been considered, and has compelling implications for generating tunable light at short wavelengths

Extremal dependencies and rank correlations in power law networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Volkovich, Y.; Litvak, Nelli; Zwart, B.; Jie, Z.

2009-01-01

We analyze dependencies in complex networks characterized by power laws (Web sample, Wikipedia sample and a preferential attachment graph) using statistical techniques from the extreme value theory and the theory of multivariate regular variation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first

Complex layered dental restorations: Are they recognizable and do they survive extreme conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Soon, Alistair S; Bush, Mary A; Bush, Peter J

2015-09-01

Recent research has shown that restorative dental materials can be recognized by microscopy and elemental analysis (scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence; SEM/EDS and XRF) and that this is possible even in extreme conditions, such as cremation. These analytical methods and databases of dental materials properties have proven useful in DVI (disaster victim identification) of a commercial plane crash in 2009, and in a number of other victim identification cases. Dental materials appear on the market with ever expanding frequency. With their advent, newer methods of restoration have been proposed and adopted in the dental office. Methods might include placing multiple layers of dental materials, where they have different properties including adhesion, viscosity, or working time. These different dental materials include filled adhesives, flowable resins, glass ionomer cements, composite resins, liners and sealants. With possible combinations of different materials in these restorations, the forensic odontologist is now confronted with a new difficulty; how to recognize each individual material. The question might be posed if it is even possible to perform this task. Furthermore, an odontologist might be called upon to identify a victim under difficult circumstances, such as when presented with fragmented or incinerated remains. In these circumstances the ability to identify specific dental materials could assist in the identification of the deceased. Key to use of this information is whether these new materials and methods are detailed in the dental chart. Visual or radiographic inspection may not reveal the presence of a restoration, let alone the possible complex nature of that restoration. This study demonstrates another scientific method in forensic dental identification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

2014-01-01

Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

Holographic complexity and spacetime singularities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbón, José L.F. [Instituto de Física Teórica IFT UAM/CSIC,C/ Nicolás Cabrera 13, Campus Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Madrid 28049 (Spain); Rabinovici, Eliezer [Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University,Jerusalem 91904 (Israel); Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Hautes Energies, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

2016-01-15

We study the evolution of holographic complexity in various AdS/CFT models containing cosmological crunch singularities. We find that a notion of complexity measured by extremal bulk volumes tends to decrease as the singularity is approached in CFT time, suggesting that the corresponding quantum states have simpler entanglement structure at the singularity.

Holographic complexity and spacetime singularities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbón, José L.F.; Rabinovici, Eliezer

2016-01-01

We study the evolution of holographic complexity in various AdS/CFT models containing cosmological crunch singularities. We find that a notion of complexity measured by extremal bulk volumes tends to decrease as the singularity is approached in CFT time, suggesting that the corresponding quantum states have simpler entanglement structure at the singularity.

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter