Current status and issues of external event PSA for extreme natural hazards after Fukushima accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, In-Kil; Hahm, Daegi; Kim, Min Kyu

2014-01-01

Extreme external events is emerged as significant risk contributor to the nuclear power plants after Fukushima Daiichi accident due to the catastrophic earthquake followed by great tsunami greater than a design basis. This accident shows that the extreme external events have the potential to simultaneously affect redundant and diverse safety systems and thereby induce common cause failure or common cause initiators. The probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been used for the risk assessment and safety improvement against the extreme natural hazards. The earthquake and tsunami hazard is an important issue for the nuclear industry in Korea. In this paper, the role and application of probabilistic safety assessment for the post Fukushima action will be introduced. For the evaluation of the extreme natural hazard, probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis is being performed for the safety enhancement. The research activity on the external event PSA and its interim results will be introduced with the issues to be solved in the future for the reliability enhancement of the risk analysis results. (authors)

An archaeal tRNA-synthetase complex that enhances aminoacylation under extreme conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godinic-Mikulcic, Vlatka; Jaric, Jelena; Hausmann, Corinne D

2011-01-01

Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) play an integral role in protein synthesis, functioning to attach the correct amino acid with its cognate tRNA molecule. AaRSs are known to associate into higher-order multi-aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase complexes (MSC) involved in archaeal and eukaryotic translatio...... of a complex between MtSerRS and MtArgRS provides a means by which methanogenic archaea can optimize an early step in translation under a wide range of extreme environmental conditions....

Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Cilliers

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

Complex architecture of primes and natural numbers.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Pérez, Guillermo; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2014-08-01

Natural numbers can be divided in two nonoverlapping infinite sets, primes and composites, with composites factorizing into primes. Despite their apparent simplicity, the elucidation of the architecture of natural numbers with primes as building blocks remains elusive. Here, we propose a new approach to decoding the architecture of natural numbers based on complex networks and stochastic processes theory. We introduce a parameter-free non-Markovian dynamical model that naturally generates random primes and their relation with composite numbers with remarkable accuracy. Our model satisfies the prime number theorem as an emerging property and a refined version of Cramér's conjecture about the statistics of gaps between consecutive primes that seems closer to reality than the original Cramér's version. Regarding composites, the model helps us to derive the prime factors counting function, giving the probability of distinct prime factors for any integer. Probabilistic models like ours can help to get deeper insights about primes and the complex architecture of natural numbers.

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Yi Wan

Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more

Natural enemy interactions constrain pest control in complex agricultural landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Emily A; Reineking, Björn; Seo, Bumsuk; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

2013-04-02

Biological control of pests by natural enemies is a major ecosystem service delivered to agriculture worldwide. Quantifying and predicting its effectiveness at large spatial scales is critical for increased sustainability of agricultural production. Landscape complexity is known to benefit natural enemies, but its effects on interactions between natural enemies and the consequences for crop damage and yield are unclear. Here, we show that pest control at the landscape scale is driven by differences in natural enemy interactions across landscapes, rather than by the effectiveness of individual natural enemy guilds. In a field exclusion experiment, pest control by flying insect enemies increased with landscape complexity. However, so did antagonistic interactions between flying insects and birds, which were neutral in simple landscapes and increasingly negative in complex landscapes. Negative natural enemy interactions thus constrained pest control in complex landscapes. These results show that, by altering natural enemy interactions, landscape complexity can provide ecosystem services as well as disservices. Careful handling of the tradeoffs among multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity, and societal concerns is thus crucial and depends on our ability to predict the functional consequences of landscape-scale changes in trophic interactions.

Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lu; Huang, Jie; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing

2018-06-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.

Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas

Science.gov (United States)

Kesavan, P. C.; Swaminathan, M. S.

2006-08-01

Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a ‘bottom-up’ manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural

Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

2017-04-01

Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

Observational constraints of stellar collapse: Diagnostic probes of nature's extreme matter experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris L. Fryer

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Supernovae are Nature's high-energy, high density laboratory experiments, reaching densities in excess of nuclear densities and temperatures above 10 MeV. Astronomers have built up a suite of diagnostics to study these supernovae. If we can utilize these diagnostics, and tie them together with a theoretical understanding of supernova physics, we can use these cosmic explosions to study the nature of matter at these extreme densities and temperatures. Capitalizing on these diagnostics will require understanding a wide range of additional physics. Here we review the diagnostics and the physics neeeded to use them to learn about the supernova engine, and ultimate nuclear physics.

Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

2012-01-01

With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

48 CFR 52.246-18 - Warranty of Supplies of a Complex Nature.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Complex Nature. 52.246-18 Section 52.246-18 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION... Clauses 52.246-18 Warranty of Supplies of a Complex Nature. As prescribed in 46.710(b)(1), insert a clause substantially as follows: Warranty of Supplies of a Complex Nature (MAY 2001) (a) Definitions. As used in this...

Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, Anselm

2006-08-01

Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

Pest control of aphids depends on landscape complexity and natural enemy interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Emily A; Reineking, Björn; Seo, Bumsuk; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

2015-01-01

Aphids are a major concern in agricultural crops worldwide, and control by natural enemies is an essential component of the ecological intensification of agriculture. Although the complexity of agricultural landscapes is known to influence natural enemies of pests, few studies have measured the degree of pest control by different enemy guilds across gradients in landscape complexity. Here, we use multiple natural-enemy exclosures replicated in 18 fields across a gradient in landscape complexity to investigate (1) the strength of natural pest control across landscapes, measured as the difference between pest pressure in the presence and in the absence of natural enemies; (2) the differential contributions of natural enemy guilds to pest control, and the nature of their interactions across landscapes. We show that natural pest control of aphids increased up to six-fold from simple to complex landscapes. In the absence of pest control, aphid population growth was higher in complex than simple landscapes, but was reduced by natural enemies to similar growth rates across all landscapes. The effects of enemy guilds were landscape-dependent. Particularly in complex landscapes, total pest control was supplied by the combined contribution of flying insects and ground-dwellers. Birds had little overall impact on aphid control. Despite evidence for intraguild predation of flying insects by ground-dwellers and birds, the overall effect of enemy guilds on aphid control was complementary. Understanding pest control services at large spatial scales is critical to increase the success of ecological intensification schemes. Our results suggest that, where aphids are the main pest of concern, interactions between natural enemies are largely complementary and lead to a strongly positive effect of landscape complexity on pest control. Increasing the availability of seminatural habitats in agricultural landscapes may thus benefit not only natural enemies, but also the effectiveness of

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Non-Stationary Dependence Structures for Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2016-03-03

Max-stable processes are natural models for spatial extremes because they provide suitable asymptotic approximations to the distribution of maxima of random fields. In the recent past, several parametric families of stationary max-stable models have been developed, and fitted to various types of data. However, a recurrent problem is the modeling of non-stationarity. In this paper, we develop non-stationary max-stable dependence structures in which covariates can be easily incorporated. Inference is performed using pairwise likelihoods, and its performance is assessed by an extensive simulation study based on a non-stationary locally isotropic extremal t model. Evidence that unknown parameters are well estimated is provided, and estimation of spatial return level curves is discussed. The methodology is demonstrated with temperature maxima recorded over a complex topography. Models are shown to satisfactorily capture extremal dependence.

A phylogenetic and cognitive perspective on linguistic complexity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In recent years a growing interest in the nature of linguistic complexity has emerged in linguistic circles. A striking feature of this interest is that linguistic complexity is taken to be a phenomenon in its own right. In fact, an extreme construal of the inherent complexity of language is represented in the notion of universal ...

Game theory and extremal optimization for community detection in complex dynamic networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Lung, Rodica Ioana; Chira, Camelia; Andreica, Anca

2014-01-01

The detection of evolving communities in dynamic complex networks is a challenging problem that recently received attention from the research community. Dynamics clearly add another complexity dimension to the difficult task of community detection. Methods should be able to detect changes in the network structure and produce a set of community structures corresponding to different timestamps and reflecting the evolution in time of network data. We propose a novel approach based on game theory elements and extremal optimization to address dynamic communities detection. Thus, the problem is formulated as a mathematical game in which nodes take the role of players that seek to choose a community that maximizes their profit viewed as a fitness function. Numerical results obtained for both synthetic and real-world networks illustrate the competitive performance of this game theoretical approach.

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2014-01-01

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

Is there Complex Trauma Experience typology for Australian's experiencing extreme social disadvantage and low housing stability?

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Carol A; Magee, Christopher A; Kelly, Peter J

2016-11-01

Traumatic childhood experiences predict many adverse outcomes in adulthood including Complex-PTSD. Understanding complex trauma within socially disadvantaged populations has important implications for policy development and intervention implementation. This paper examined the nature of complex trauma experienced by disadvantaged individuals using a latent class analysis (LCA) approach. Data were collected through the large-scale Journeys Home Study (N=1682), utilising a representative sample of individuals experiencing low housing stability. Data on adverse childhood experiences, adulthood interpersonal trauma and relevant covariates were collected through interviews at baseline (Wave 1). Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to identify distinct classes of childhood trauma history, which included physical assault, neglect, and sexual abuse. Multinomial logistic regression investigated childhood relevant factors associated with class membership such as biological relationship of primary carer at age 14 years and number of times in foster care. Of the total sample (N=1682), 99% reported traumatic adverse childhood experiences. The most common included witnessing of violence, threat/experience of physical abuse, and sexual assault. LCA identified six distinct childhood trauma history classes including high violence and multiple traumas. Significant covariate differences between classes included: gender, biological relationship of primary carer at age 14 years, and time in foster care. Identification of six distinct childhood trauma history profiles suggests there might be unique treatment implications for individuals living in extreme social disadvantage. Further research is required to examine the relationship between these classes of experience, consequent impact on adulthood engagement, and future transitions though homelessness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synchronization and Causality Across Time-scales: Complex Dynamics and Extremes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Jajcay, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

A better understanding of dynamics in complex systems, such as the Earth's climate is one of the key challenges for contemporary science and society. A large amount of experimental data requires new mathematical and computational approaches. Natural complex systems vary on many temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting recurring patterns and quasi-oscillatory phenomena. The statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding of underlying mechanisms and a key for modeling and prediction of such systems. This study introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different wavelet components of the observed data that characterizes El Niño. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales was detected, and intermittent synchronization among different time scales has been associated with the extreme El Niño events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions were further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction. Moreover, the statistical framework which we apply here is suitable for direct usage of inferring cross-scale interactions in nonlinear time series from complex systems such as the terrestrial magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic activity or even human brain dynamics.

Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA

Science.gov (United States)

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok

2017-12-01

The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought

Model of geophysical fields representation in problems of complex correlation-extreme navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volodymyr KHARCHENKO

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A model of the optimal representation of spatial data for the task of complex correlation-extreme navigation is developed based on the criterion of minimum deviation of the correlation functions of the original and the resulting fields. Calculations are presented for one-dimensional case using the approximation of the correlation function by Fourier series. It is shown that in the presence of different geophysical map data fields their representation is possible by single template with optimal sampling without distorting the form of the correlation functions.

Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

2017-12-01

In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

Complex active regions as the main source of extreme and large solar proton events

Science.gov (United States)

Ishkov, V. N.

2013-12-01

A study of solar proton sources indicated that solar flare events responsible for ≥2000 pfu proton fluxes mostly occur in complex active regions (CARs), i.e., in transition structures between active regions and activity complexes. Different classes of similar structures and their relation to solar proton events (SPEs) and evolution, depending on the origination conditions, are considered. Arguments in favor of the fact that sunspot groups with extreme dimensions are CARs are presented. An analysis of the flare activity in a CAR resulted in the detection of "physical" boundaries, which separate magnetic structures of the same polarity and are responsible for the independent development of each structure.

Extreme phenophase delays and their relationship with natural forcings in Beijing over the past 260 years

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Zhang, Mingqing; Fang, Xiuqi

2018-03-01

By merging reconstructed phenological series from published articles and observations of China Phenology Observation Network (CPON), the first blooming date of Amygdalus davidiana (FBA) in Beijing between 1741 and 2000 is reconstructed. The Butterworth method is used to remove the multi-year variations for generating the phenological series of annual variations in the first blooming date of A. davidiana. The extreme delay years in the phenological series are identified using the percentage threshold method. The characteristics of the extreme delays and the correspondence of these events with natural forcings are analysed. The main results are as follows. In annual phenological series, the extreme delays appeared in single year as main feature, only A.D.1800-1801, 1816-1817 and 1983-1984 were the events of two consecutively extreme years. Approximately 85% of the extreme delays occurred during 1-2 years after the large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥ 4) in the eastern rim or the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, as the same proportion of the extreme delays followed El Niño events. About 73% years of the extreme delays fall in the valleys of sunspot cycles or the Dalton minimum period in the year or the previous year. According to the certainty factor (CF), the large eruptions have the greatest influence to the extreme delays; sunspot activity is the second, and ENSO is the last one. The extreme phenological delayed year is most likely to occur after a large eruption, which particularly occurs during El Niño year and its previous several years were in the descending portion or valley of sunspot phase.

A meta-analysis of crop pest and natural enemy response to landscape complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; O'Rourke, Megan E; Blitzer, Eleanor J; Kremen, Claire

2011-09-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the relationship between landscape complexity and pests, natural enemies and/or pest control. However, no quantitative synthesis of this literature beyond simple vote-count methods yet exists. We conducted a meta-analysis of 46 landscape-level studies, and found that natural enemies have a strong positive response to landscape complexity. Generalist enemies show consistent positive responses to landscape complexity across all scales measured, while specialist enemies respond more strongly to landscape complexity at smaller scales. Generalist enemy response to natural habitat also tends to occur at larger spatial scales than for specialist enemies, suggesting that land management strategies to enhance natural pest control should differ depending on whether the dominant enemies are generalists or specialists. The positive response of natural enemies does not necessarily translate into pest control, since pest abundances show no significant response to landscape complexity. Very few landscape-scale studies have estimated enemy impact on pest populations, however, limiting our understanding of the effects of landscape on pest control. We suggest focusing future research efforts on measuring population dynamics rather than static counts to better characterise the relationship between landscape complexity and pest control services from natural enemies. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Transformation of natural complexes, conservation of biodiversity and ecological management of the Polessky radio-ecological nature reserve territory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maslovskij, O.M.; Rykovskij, G.F.

2001-01-01

Investigation of mechanisms of radionuclide contamination influence on natural complexes after the Chernobyl diaster showed that the contamination level is not dangerous for the majority of plant and animal species within the larger part of 30km zone and outside it. Medical aspects are discussed in another article. The nature as a whole has coped with the negative influence of the Chernobyl disaster. At the same time natural complexes of the Polessky State Radio-Ecological Nature Reserve (PSRENR) have transformed after the removal of antropogenic stress. Different succession changes take place, biodivesity has sharply increased. It allows us to consider this territory as one of the most important nature protection objects nor only in Belarus but also in East Europe

Thermodynamics of complex formation of natural iron(III)porphyrins with neutral ligands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lebedeva, Nataliya Sh.; Yakubov, Sergey P.; Vyugin, Anatoly I.; Parfenyuk, Elena V.

2003-01-01

Calorimetric titrations in benzene and chloroform at 298.15 K have been performed to give the complexes stability constants and the thermodynamic parameters for the complex formation of nature iron(III)porphyrins with pyridine. Stoichimetry of the complexes formed has been determined. It has been found that the thermodynamic parameters obtained depend on nature of peripheral substituents of the porphyrins. The estimation of the influence of Cl - and Ac - ions on the processes studied has been carried out. Using thermodynamic analysis method, the crystallsolvates of nature iron(III)porphyrins with benzene have been studied. Stoichiometry, thermal and energetic stability of the π-π-complexes formed have been determined. The data obtained have been used to the estimate solvent effect on the thermodynamic parameters of axial coordination of pyridine on the iron(III)porphyrins in benzene

Community detection in complex networks using deep auto-encoded extreme learning machine

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Feifan; Zhang, Baihai; Chai, Senchun; Xia, Yuanqing

2018-06-01

Community detection has long been a fascinating topic in complex networks since the community structure usually unveils valuable information of interest. The prevalence and evolution of deep learning and neural networks have been pushing forward the advancement in various research fields and also provide us numerous useful and off the shelf techniques. In this paper, we put the cascaded stacked autoencoders and the unsupervised extreme learning machine (ELM) together in a two-level embedding process and propose a novel community detection algorithm. Extensive comparison experiments in circumstances of both synthetic and real-world networks manifest the advantages of the proposed algorithm. On one hand, it outperforms the k-means clustering in terms of the accuracy and stability thus benefiting from the determinate dimensions of the ELM block and the integration of sparsity restrictions. On the other hand, it endures smaller complexity than the spectral clustering method on account of the shrinkage in time spent on the eigenvalue decomposition procedure.

Peroneal island flap for wound coverage in complex injuries of the lower extremity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fazal A

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Akil Fazal1, Haroon-ur-Rashid1, Tahseen Cheema21Section of Orthopedics, Department of Surgery, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; 2Department of Orthopedics and Rehabilitation, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USABackground: Complex injuries of the lower extremity pose a therapeutic challenge owing to limited availability of local soft tissue for coverage. One option in this region is the pedicled fasciocutaneous flap based on perforators of the peroneal artery. In this case series, we present our experience of the peroneal island pedicled flap for reconstruction of lower extremity wounds.Methods: Records of 18 cases of peroneal island flap admitted consecutively to the Section of Orthopedics at Aga Khan University Hospital from January 1996 to December of 2009 were studied and their outcomes determined.Results: The most common indication for coverage was open wounds due to a road traffic accident (n = 10, followed by burns (n = 3. The most common area exposed was the lower third of the leg followed by the middle third. The tibia was exposed in 11 patients. The flaps ranged in size from 35 cm2 to over 200 cm2. In 13 patients, the flaps healed uneventfully, while in the remaining five there was partial flap necrosis. In four of the latter patients, the residual wound healed with conservative measures only, but the fifth patient required further surgery to achieve acceptable coverage.Conclusion: The peroneal artery flap appears to be a simple, useful, and reliable flap in the armamentarium of the surgeon when planning soft tissue coverage of the lower extremity.Keywords: leg injuries, surgical flaps, lower extremity

454 sequencing reveals extreme complexity of the class II Major Histocompatibility Complex in the collared flycatcher

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustafsson Lars

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of their functional significance, the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC class I and II genes have been the subject of continuous interest in the fields of ecology, evolution and conservation. In some vertebrate groups MHC consists of multiple loci with similar alleles; therefore, the multiple loci must be genotyped simultaneously. In such complex systems, understanding of the evolutionary patterns and their causes has been limited due to challenges posed by genotyping. Results Here we used 454 amplicon sequencing to characterize MHC class IIB exon 2 variation in the collared flycatcher, an important organism in evolutionary and immuno-ecological studies. On the basis of over 152,000 sequencing reads we identified 194 putative alleles in 237 individuals. We found an extreme complexity of the MHC class IIB in the collared flycatchers, with our estimates pointing to the presence of at least nine expressed loci and a large, though difficult to estimate precisely, number of pseudogene loci. Many similar alleles occurred in the pseudogenes indicating either a series of recent duplications or extensive concerted evolution. The expressed alleles showed unambiguous signals of historical selection and the occurrence of apparent interlocus exchange of alleles. Placing the collared flycatcher's MHC sequences in the context of passerine diversity revealed transspecific MHC class II evolution within the Muscicapidae family. Conclusions 454 amplicon sequencing is an effective tool for advancing our understanding of the MHC class II structure and evolutionary patterns in Passeriformes. We found a highly dynamic pattern of evolution of MHC class IIB genes with strong signals of selection and pronounced sequence divergence in expressed genes, in contrast to the apparent sequence homogenization in pseudogenes. We show that next generation sequencing offers a universal, affordable method for the characterization and, in perspective

"Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) in Sexually Abused Children: An Exloratory Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Darlene Kordich

1999-01-01

Compares three groups of young sexually abused children on seven "Complex" Posttraumatic Stress Disorder/Disorders of Extreme Stress (CP/DES) indices. As cumulative number of types of trauma increased, the number of CP/DES symptoms rose. Results suggest that CP/DES also characterizes sexually abused children, especially those who have…

Atomic switch networks-nanoarchitectonic design of a complex system for natural computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Demis, E C; Aguilera, R; Sillin, H O; Scharnhorst, K; Sandouk, E J; Aono, M; Stieg, A Z; Gimzewski, J K

2015-05-22

Self-organized complex systems are ubiquitous in nature, and the structural complexity of these natural systems can be used as a model to design new classes of functional nanotechnology based on highly interconnected networks of interacting units. Conventional fabrication methods for electronic computing devices are subject to known scaling limits, confining the diversity of possible architectures. This work explores methods of fabricating a self-organized complex device known as an atomic switch network and discusses its potential utility in computing. Through a merger of top-down and bottom-up techniques guided by mathematical and nanoarchitectonic design principles, we have produced functional devices comprising nanoscale elements whose intrinsic nonlinear dynamics and memorization capabilities produce robust patterns of distributed activity and a capacity for nonlinear transformation of input signals when configured in the appropriate network architecture. Their operational characteristics represent a unique potential for hardware implementation of natural computation, specifically in the area of reservoir computing-a burgeoning field that investigates the computational aptitude of complex biologically inspired systems.

Vacuum assisted closure therapy for treatment of complex wounds in replanted extremities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Min; Qi, Baiwen; Yu, Aixi; Pan, Zhenyu; Zhu, Shaobo; Deng, Kai; Tao, Shengxiang

2013-11-01

The object of this study was to compare the outcomes of the vacuum assisted closure (VAC) therapy and conventional wound care with dressing change for treatment of complex wounds in patients with replantation of amputated upper and lower extremities. Data of 43 patients with replantation of amputated extremities from May 2004 to December 2011 were reviewed. There were 18 wounds of 18 patients with replantation, which were treated by dressing change and 26 wounds of 25 patients by VAC therapy. The outcomes were evaluated by the survival rate of replanted extremities, growth of granulation tissue, interval between wound treatment and secondary procedure and eventual secondary wound coverage methods. Vascular thromboses were found in 3 patients with wound treatment by dressing change and 5 by VAC. All replants of two groups of patients survived after salvage procedures. The wound score was 3.6 ± 0.7 in the conventional dressing change group and 5.8 ± 0.7 in the VAC group at the sixth day after treatment, respectively. The intervals between wound treatment and secondary wound coverage procedure were 12.0 ± 1.7 days in the dressing change group and 6.1 ± 0.7 days in the VAC group. Flaps were applied for wound coverage in 9 out of 18 (50.0%) wounds in the dressing change group and 5 out of 26 (19.2%) in the VAC group (P VAC could promote the growth of granulation tissue of wound, decrease the need of flap for wound coverage, and did not change the survival of replantation. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Hidden Complexity of Mendelian Traits across Natural Yeast Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Hou

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Mendelian traits are considered to be at the lower end of the complexity spectrum of heritable phenotypes. However, more than a century after the rediscovery of Mendel’s law, the global landscape of monogenic variants, as well as their effects and inheritance patterns within natural populations, is still not well understood. Using the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we performed a species-wide survey of Mendelian traits across a large population of isolates. We generated offspring from 41 unique parental pairs and analyzed 1,105 cross/trait combinations. We found that 8.9% of the cases were Mendelian. Further tracing of causal variants revealed background-specific expressivity and modified inheritances, gradually transitioning from Mendelian to complex traits in 30% of the cases. In fact, when taking into account the natural population diversity, the hidden complexity of traits could be substantial, confounding phenotypic predictability even for simple Mendelian traits.

Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

2004-02-01

This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

Complexes of actinides with naturally occuring organic substances - Literature survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olofsson, U.; Allard, B.

1983-02-01

Properties of naturally occurring humic and fulvic acids and their formation of actinide complexes are reviewed. Actinides in all the oxdation states III, IV, V and VI would form complexes with many humic and fulvic acids, comparable in strength to the hydroxide and carbonate complexes. Preliminary experiments have shown, that the presence of predominantly humic acid complexes would significantly reduce the sorption of americium on geologic media. This does not, however, necessarily lead to a potentially enhanced mobility under environmental conditions, since humic and fulvic acids carrying trace metals also would be strongly bound to e.g. clayish material. (author)

[Autologous transfusion of UV-irradiated blood in the complex treatment of children with dysplasia of deep veins of the extremities].

Science.gov (United States)

Levanovich, V V; Kupatadze, D D; Endzhibadze, Iu G; Nabokov, V V; Mazurova, E V; Ivanov, A P; Chirovich, M

1991-02-01

Under examination there were 12 patients aged from 5 till 14 years. An investigation of hemostatic potential of blood in the diseased extremity and peripheral blood was performed. A mosaic character of blood coagulative alterations in this category of patients was detected. Autotransfusion of UV-irradiated blood is a pathogenetically grounded and accessible method of correction of hemocoagulation and may be included in the complex treatment of patients with dysplasia of the profound veins of lower extremities.

Atomic switch networks—nanoarchitectonic design of a complex system for natural computing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demis, E C; Aguilera, R; Sillin, H O; Scharnhorst, K; Sandouk, E J; Gimzewski, J K; Aono, M; Stieg, A Z

2015-01-01

Self-organized complex systems are ubiquitous in nature, and the structural complexity of these natural systems can be used as a model to design new classes of functional nanotechnology based on highly interconnected networks of interacting units. Conventional fabrication methods for electronic computing devices are subject to known scaling limits, confining the diversity of possible architectures. This work explores methods of fabricating a self-organized complex device known as an atomic switch network and discusses its potential utility in computing. Through a merger of top-down and bottom-up techniques guided by mathematical and nanoarchitectonic design principles, we have produced functional devices comprising nanoscale elements whose intrinsic nonlinear dynamics and memorization capabilities produce robust patterns of distributed activity and a capacity for nonlinear transformation of input signals when configured in the appropriate network architecture. Their operational characteristics represent a unique potential for hardware implementation of natural computation, specifically in the area of reservoir computing—a burgeoning field that investigates the computational aptitude of complex biologically inspired systems. (paper)

Structuring nature´s and science´s complexity

OpenAIRE

Leiber, Theodor

2007-01-01

Structuring nature´s and science´s complexity : system laws and explanations. - In: Dynamisches Denken und Handeln : Philosophie und Wissenschaft in einer komplexen Welt ; Festschrift für Klaus Mainzer zum 60. Geburtstag / Theodor Leiber (Hg.). - Stuttgart : Hirzel, 2007. - S. 193-212

Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

2001-01-01

We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

Complex forming properties of natural organic acids. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ephraim, J.H.; Mathuthu, A.S.; Marinsky, J.A.

1990-07-01

An ultrafiltration technique combined with ion-selective-electrode and atomic absorption methods have been employed to obtain information on the complex forming properties of fulvic acid with iron and calcium. A model for interpreting complexation of metal ions to fulvic acid at any pH, medium ionic strength and metal to fulvic acid ratio developed earlier has been used in an attempt to predict the nature of iron and calcium interaction to Armadale Horizon Bh fulvic acid. Binding of calcium to fulvic acid which is enhanced at pHs greater than 6.0 has reasonably been predicted by the model taking into consideration complications due to the polyelectrolyte nature and the heterogeneity of the fulvic acid. The lack of agreement observed between the model predicted binding behavior and the experimentally observed results for the fulvic acid-iron system has been attributed to the formation of metal-induced aggregation. Reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II) by the fulvic acid as reported by other workers is corroborated. (orig.)

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Conformational changes in the bilirubin-human serum albumin complex at extreme alkaline pH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Honoré, B; Frandsen, P C

1986-01-01

Light-absorption, c.d. and fluorescence of the bilirubin-albumin complex were investigated at extreme alkaline pH. Above pH 11.1 albumin binds the bilirubin molecule, twisted oppositely to the configuration at more neutral pH. On the basis of light-absorption it is shown that two alkaline...... transitions occur. The first alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.3 and 11.8, co-operatively dissociating at least six protons. The second alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.8 and 12.0. It probably implies a reversible unfolding of the albumin molecule, increasing the distance...

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biros, George [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2018-01-12

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a

Getting Alice through the door: social science research and natural resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Alan W. Ewert

1995-01-01

A number of trends are altering the role of science in natural resource management. These trends include the growing political power of science, the recognition that most natural resource problems are extremely complex and not prone to uni-dimensional solutions, and the increasing need to integrate an understanding of the human component into the planning and decision-...

Complex layered dental restorations: Are they recognizable and do they survive extreme conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Soon, Alistair S; Bush, Mary A; Bush, Peter J

2015-09-01

Recent research has shown that restorative dental materials can be recognized by microscopy and elemental analysis (scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence; SEM/EDS and XRF) and that this is possible even in extreme conditions, such as cremation. These analytical methods and databases of dental materials properties have proven useful in DVI (disaster victim identification) of a commercial plane crash in 2009, and in a number of other victim identification cases. Dental materials appear on the market with ever expanding frequency. With their advent, newer methods of restoration have been proposed and adopted in the dental office. Methods might include placing multiple layers of dental materials, where they have different properties including adhesion, viscosity, or working time. These different dental materials include filled adhesives, flowable resins, glass ionomer cements, composite resins, liners and sealants. With possible combinations of different materials in these restorations, the forensic odontologist is now confronted with a new difficulty; how to recognize each individual material. The question might be posed if it is even possible to perform this task. Furthermore, an odontologist might be called upon to identify a victim under difficult circumstances, such as when presented with fragmented or incinerated remains. In these circumstances the ability to identify specific dental materials could assist in the identification of the deceased. Key to use of this information is whether these new materials and methods are detailed in the dental chart. Visual or radiographic inspection may not reveal the presence of a restoration, let alone the possible complex nature of that restoration. This study demonstrates another scientific method in forensic dental identification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural Product Screening Reveals Naphthoquinone Complex I Bypass Factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott B Vafai

Full Text Available Deficiency of mitochondrial complex I is encountered in both rare and common diseases, but we have limited therapeutic options to treat this lesion to the oxidative phosphorylation system (OXPHOS. Idebenone and menadione are redox-active molecules capable of rescuing OXPHOS activity by engaging complex I-independent pathways of entry, often referred to as "complex I bypass." In the present study, we created a cellular model of complex I deficiency by using CRISPR genome editing to knock out Ndufa9 in mouse myoblasts, and utilized this cell line to develop a high-throughput screening platform for novel complex I bypass factors. We screened a library of ~40,000 natural product extracts and performed bioassay-guided fractionation on a subset of the top scoring hits. We isolated four plant-derived 1,4-naphthoquinone complex I bypass factors with structural similarity to menadione: chimaphilin and 3-chloro-chimaphilin from Chimaphila umbellata and dehydro-α-lapachone and dehydroiso-α-lapachone from Stereospermum euphoroides. We also tested a small number of structurally related naphthoquinones from commercial sources and identified two additional compounds with complex I bypass activity: 2-methoxy-1,4-naphthoquinone and 2-methoxy-3-methyl-1,4,-naphthoquinone. The six novel complex I bypass factors reported here expand this class of molecules and will be useful as tool compounds for investigating complex I disease biology.

Mercury reduction and complexation by natural organic matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, Baohua; Bian, Yongrong; Miller, Carrie L.; Dong, Wenming; Jiang, Xin; Liang, Liyuan

2011-01-01

Mercuric Hg(II) species form complexes with natural dissolved organic matter (DOM) such as humic acid (HA), and this binding is known to affect the chemical and biological transformation and cycling of mercury in aquatic environments. Dissolved elemental mercury, Hg(0), is also widely observed in sediments and water. However, reactions between Hg(0) and DOM have rarely been studied in anoxic environments. Here, under anoxic dark conditions we show strong interactions between reduced HA and Hg(0) through thiol-ligand induced oxidative complexation with an estimated binding capacity of about 3.5 umol Hg(0)/g HA and a partitioning coefficient greater than 10 6 mL/g. We further demonstrate that Hg(II) can be effectively reduced to Hg(0) in the presence of as little as 0.2 mg/L reduced HA, whereas production of purgeable Hg(0) is inhibited by complexation as HA concentration increases. This dual role played by DOM in the reduction and complexation of mercury is likely widespread in anoxic sediments and water and can be expected to significantly influence the mercury species transformations and biological uptake that leads to the formation of toxic methylmercury.

Influence of the control system on wind turbine loads during power production in extreme turbulence: Structural reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2016-01-01

structural reliability are assessed when the extreme turbulence model is uncertain. The structural reliability is assessed for the wind turbine when three configurations of an industrial grade load alleviation control system of increasing complexity and performance are used. The load alleviation features......The wind energy industry is continuously researching better computational models of wind inflow and turbulence to predict extreme loading (the nature of randomness) and their corresponding probability of occurrence. Sophisticated load alleviation control systems are increasingly being designed...... and deployed to specifically reduce the adverse effects of extreme load events resulting in lighter structures. The main objective herein is to show that despite large uncertainty in the extreme turbulence models, advanced load alleviation control systems yield both a reduction in magnitude and scatter...

Adapting to extreme events related to natural variability and climate change: the imperative of coupling technology with strong regulation and governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kythreotis, A P; Mercer, T G; Frostick, L E

2013-09-03

In recent years there has been an increase in extreme events related to natural variability (such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes) and climate change (such as flooding and more extreme weather). Developing innovative technologies is crucial in making society more resilient to such events. However, little emphasis has been placed on the role of human decision-making in maximizing the positive impacts of technological developments. This is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate adaptation options and the privatization of existing infrastructure, which can leave people exposed to increasing risk. This work examines the need for more robust government regulation and legislation to complement developments and innovations in technology in order to protect communities against such extreme events.

Extremes in random fields a theory and its applications

CERN Document Server

Yakir, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Presents a useful new technique for analyzing the extreme-value behaviour of random fields Modern science typically involves the analysis of increasingly complex data. The extreme values that emerge in the statistical analysis of complex data are often of particular interest. This book focuses on the analytical approximations of the statistical significance of extreme values. Several relatively complex applications of the technique to problems that emerge in practical situations are presented.  All the examples are difficult to analyze using classical methods, and as a result, the author pr

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgueño, A.; Lana, X.; Serra, C.; Martínez, M.D.

2014-01-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burgueño, A. [Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Lana, X., E-mail: francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Serra, C. [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Martínez, M.D. [Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)

2014-02-01

The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

THE NATURE OF EXTREMELY RED H - [4.5] > 4 GALAXIES REVEALED WITH SEDS AND CANDELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caputi, K. I.; Dunlop, J. S.; McLure, R. J.; Cirasuolo, M. [SUPA, Institute for Astronomy, The University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Huang, J.-S.; Fazio, G. G.; Ashby, M. L. N. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Castellano, M.; Fontana, A. [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Via Frascati 33, I-00040 Monteporzio (Italy); Almaini, O. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Bell, E. F. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Dickinson, M. [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Donley, J. L.; Ferguson, H. C.; Grogin, N. A.; Koekemoer, A. M. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Faber, S. M.; Kocevski, D. D.; Koo, D. C. [University of California Observatories/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Giavalisco, M., E-mail: karina@astro.rug.nl [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); and others

2012-05-01

We have analyzed a sample of 25 extremely red H - [4.5] > 4 galaxies, selected using 4.5 {mu}m data from the Spitzer SEDS survey and deep H-band data from the Hubble Space Telescope CANDELS survey, over {approx}180 arcmin{sup 2} of the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey field. Our aim is to investigate the nature of this rare population of mid-infrared (mid-IR) sources that display such extreme near-to-mid-IR colors. Using up to 17-band photometry (U through 8.0 {mu}m), we have studied in detail their spectral energy distributions, including possible degeneracies in the photometric redshift/internal extinction (z{sub phot}-A{sub V} ) plane. Our sample appears to include sources of very different nature. Between 45% and 75% of them are dust-obscured, massive galaxies at 3 < z{sub phot} < 5. All of the 24 {mu}m detected sources in our sample are in this category. Two of these have S(24 {mu}m)>300 {mu}Jy, which at 3 < z{sub phot} < 5 suggests that they probably host a dust-obscured active galactic nucleus. Our sample also contains four highly obscured (A{sub V} > 5) sources at z{sub phot} < 1. Finally, we analyze in detail two z{sub phot} {approx} 6 galaxy candidates, and discuss their plausibility and implications. Overall, our red galaxy sample contains the tip of the iceberg of a larger population of z > 3 galaxies to be discovered with the future James Webb Space Telescope.

Assessing Nature-Based Coastal Protection against Disasters Derived from Extreme Hydrometeorological Events in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Octavio Pérez-Maqueo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Natural ecosystems are expected to reduce the damaging effects of extreme hydrometeorological effects. We tested this prediction for Mexico by performing regression models, with two dependent variables: the occurrence of deaths and economic damages, at a state and municipality levels. For each location, the explanatory variables were the Mexican social vulnerability index (which includes socioeconomic aspects, local capacity to prevent and respond to an emergency, and the perception of risk and land use cover considering different vegetation types. We used the hydrometeorological events that have affected Mexico from 1970 to 2011. Our findings reveal that: (a hydrometeorological events affect both coastal and inland states, although damages are greater on the coast; (b the protective role of natural ecosystems only was clear at a municipality level: the presence of mangroves, tropical dry forest and tropical rainforest was related to a significant reduction in the occurrence of casualties. Social vulnerability was positively correlated with the occurrence of deaths. Natural ecosystems, both typically coastal (mangroves and terrestrial (tropical forests, which are located on the mountain ranges close to the coast function for storm protection. Thus, their conservation and restoration are effective and sustainable strategies that will help protect and develop the increasingly urbanized coasts.

Sustaining Economic Exploitation of Complex Ecosystems in Computational Models of Coupled Human-Natural Networks

OpenAIRE

Martinez, Neo D.; Tonin, Perrine; Bauer, Barbara; Rael, Rosalyn C.; Singh, Rahul; Yoon, Sangyuk; Yoon, Ilmi; Dunne, Jennifer A.

2012-01-01

Understanding ecological complexity has stymied scientists for decades. Recent elucidation of the famously coined "devious strategies for stability in enduring natural systems" has opened up a new field of computational analyses of complex ecological networks where the nonlinear dynamics of many interacting species can be more realistically mod-eled and understood. Here, we describe the first extension of this field to include coupled human-natural systems. This extension elucidates new strat...

Adsorption and desorption of cadmium by synthetic and natural organo-clay complexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levy, R.; Francis, C.W.; Oak Ridge National Lab., Tenn.

1976-01-01

Tracer levels of 109 Cd were used to study the adsorption and desorption of Cd by synthetic and natural organo-clay complexes. Synthetic organo-clay complexes were made by adsorbing humic acid extracted from soil to various forms of 3 ) 2 showed that Cd was adsorbed more tenaciously to the sesquioxides than organo-clay fractions

Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

2013-04-01

The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

[Physico-chemical features of dinitrosyl iron complexes with natural thiol-containing ligands underlying biological activities of these complexes].

Science.gov (United States)

Vanin, A F; Borodulin, R R; Kubrina, L N; Mikoian, V D; Burbaev, D Sh

2013-01-01

Current notions and new experimental data of the authors on physico-chemical features of dinitrosyl iron complexes with natural thiol-containing ligands (glutathione or cysteine), underlying the ability of the complexes to act as NO molecule and nitrosonium ion donors, are considered. This ability determines various biological activities of dinitrosyl iron complexes--inducing long-lasting vasodilation and thereby long-lasting hypotension in human and animals, inhibiting pellet aggregation, increasing red blood cell elasticity, thereby stimulating microcirculation, and reducing necrotic zone in animals with myocardial infarction. Moreover, dinitrosyl iron complexes are capable of accelerating skin wound healing, improving the function of penile cavernous tissue, blocking apoptosis development in cell cultures. When decomposed dinitrosyl iron complexes can exert cytotoxic effect that can be used for curing infectious and carcinogenic pathologies.

Using Plants to Explore the Nature & Structural Complexity of Life

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Ava R.

2014-01-01

Use of real specimens brings the study of biology to life. This activity brings easily acquired plant specimens into the classroom to tackle common alternative conceptions regarding life, size, complexity, the nature of science, and plants as multicellular organisms. The activity occurs after a discussion of the characteristics of life and engages…

Divisibility patterns of natural numbers on a complex network.

Science.gov (United States)

Shekatkar, Snehal M; Bhagwat, Chandrasheel; Ambika, G

2015-09-16

Investigation of divisibility properties of natural numbers is one of the most important themes in the theory of numbers. Various tools have been developed over the centuries to discover and study the various patterns in the sequence of natural numbers in the context of divisibility. In the present paper, we study the divisibility of natural numbers using the framework of a growing complex network. In particular, using tools from the field of statistical inference, we show that the network is scale-free but has a non-stationary degree distribution. Along with this, we report a new kind of similarity pattern for the local clustering, which we call "stretching similarity", in this network. We also show that the various characteristics like average degree, global clustering coefficient and assortativity coefficient of the network vary smoothly with the size of the network. Using analytical arguments we estimate the asymptotic behavior of global clustering and average degree which is validated using numerical analysis.

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were

NMR detected metabolites in complex natural fluids. Quinic acid in apple juice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ailiesei Gabriela Liliana

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Different types of 1D and 2D NMR experiments were used to completely characterize quinic acid and demonstrate its presence in complex mixtures. The identification of quinic acid in apple juice was done without any separation step. The NMR experiments presented in this study can be used to analyze other metabolites in different complex natural fluids, of vegetal or biological origin.

Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shongwe, M.E.

2010-01-01

Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

The analysis on the extreme water shortage event in Hangzhou in 1247 AD and its natural and social backgrounds

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Haolong

2017-04-01

Yangtze River Delta locating in the north subtropics of China, is famous for numerous rivers and lakes. Because of East Asian monsoon rainfall, flood is always the most primary disaster in this area during the past 2000 years. However, there were also several extreme water shortage events in the history. Example in Hangzhou in 1247 AD was such a typical year in the area. In the paper, the severity of this extreme event and the closely tied spatiotemporal variation of drought in Yangtze River Delta was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of documentary records during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, its natural and social backgrounds was discussed. The result s are summarized as follows: 1) Wells, canals and West Lake of Hangzhou dried up in 1247 AD. The water level of canals was about 1.32-2.64 m lower than that in the normal year. The reduction of storage capacity in West Lake was 21 million stere or so. 2) The droughts in Yangtze River Delta was moderate on the whole, but that in the west of Zhejiang Province was severe. The drought in Hangzhou lasted from the 2nd lunar month to the end of this year. 3) The water shortage event was closely related to the quick going north and farther northern location of summer rain belt. The descending sea-level weakening the tide in Qiantang River, can also reduce the supply of water resources. 4) The quick growth of urban population, excessive aquaculture, and ineffective government supervision played an important social role in the process of this event. In the all, this extreme water shortage event was the result of both natural and social factors. This research is very helpful for the futuristic water resource forecast in Yangtze River Delta, and it also affords us lessons on the risk management and heritage conservation that merit attention. Key Words: Hangzhou, 1247 AD, water shortage, canal, West Lake, natural factors, social factors

[Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

Science.gov (United States)

Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

2016-01-01

Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Canário

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

Intrathecal Bupivacaine Monotherapy with a Retrograde Catheter for the Management of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome of the Lower Extremity.

Science.gov (United States)

McRoberts, W Porter; Apostol, Catalina; Haleem, Abdul

2016-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) presents a therapeutic challenge due to its many presentations and multifaceted pathophysiology. There is no approved treatment algorithm and clinical interventions are often applied empirically. In cases of CRPS where symptoms are localized to an extremity, a targeted treatment is indicated. We describe the use of intrathecal bupivacaine monotherapy, delivered through a retrograde catheter, in the treatment of CRPS affecting the lower extremity. The patient, a 57-year-old woman with a history of failed foot surgery, was seen in our office after 2 years of ineffective treatments with local blocks and neurolytic procedures. We advanced therapy to moderately invasive procedures with an emphasis on neuromodulation. A combined central and peripheral stimulation technique that initially provided 75% pain relief, failed to provide lasting analgesia. We proceeded with an intrathecal pump implant. Based on the results of dorsal root ganglion (DRG) mapping, L5-S1 was identified as the optimal target for therapy and a retrograde catheter was placed at this level. Various intrathecal medications were tested individually. An intrathecal morphine trial was ineffective (visual analog scale [VAS] 7), while intrathecal clonidine provided excellent pain relief (VAS 0) that was limited by severe side effects. Bupivacaine provided 100% analgesia with tolerable side effects (lower extremity weakness and minor bladder incontinence) and was selected for intrathecal infusion. After 14 months, bupivacaine treatment continued to control pain exacerbations. We conclude that CRPS patients benefit from early identification of the predominant underlying symptoms and a targeted treatment with moderately invasive techniques when less invasive techniques fail. Intrathecal bupivacaine, bupivacaine monotherapy, retrograde catheter, complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), dual stimulation, dosal root ganglion (DRG) testing.

Complex regional pain syndrome type I in the upper extremity - how efficient physical therapy and rehabilitation are.

Science.gov (United States)

Zečević Luković, Tanja; Ristić, Branko; Jovanović, Zorica; Rančić, Nemanja; Ignjatović Ristić, Dragana; Cuković, Saša

2012-08-01

To evaluate the effects of early started combined therapy in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome-1 (CRPS-1) on the upper extremities. The study included 36 patients in the first stadium of CRPS-1 on the upper extremities The mean age of patients was 42.6±14.6, the majority of them (26 of 36) were females. The right side of the upper extremity was affected much more then the left side. They were treated by combined therapy including analgetics, electrotherapy, magneto therapy and kinesitherapy. The average length of observation was 172.1 days (from 90 to 250 days). The average length of treatment was 91.5±42.16 days. Intensity of pain, swelling of the extremity, the change in skin coloration and cutaneous manifestations were assessed three times, at the beginning of the treatment, after 6 weeks and at the end of the treatment. The pain was registered in all patients at visit 1 (average pain intensity was 5.70 ±1.44 on 100 mm visual analogue scale), and it was progressively decreased during the treatment from 3.60±1.22 at the second visit to 0.34±0.68 at the third visit. Vasodilatation was registered in 30 (83.33%) patients and skin temperature asymmetries was found in 21 (58.33%) patients. The difference of size was detected in 30 (83.33%) patients at the first visit compared to four (11.11%) patients at the end of the treatment. There were six (16.66%) patients without swelling at the beginning compared to 26 (72.22%) at the end of the treatment (p less than 0.000). Complete healing was achieved in 32 patients (88.88%). The carefully chosen physical agents in combination with analgesic and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may benefit in patients with CRPS-1 on the upper extremity if the treatment starts as soon as possible.

Extremism from the perspective of a system approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zinchenko, Yury P.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Extremism is seen as a complex, multilevel, and multicomponent phenomenon. The problems of modern science in understanding extremism are revealed. The following bases of extremism as a system phenomenon are singled out: social factors, latent extremism, and extremist acts. It is demonstrated that a system approach makes it possible to shape a notion of a subject as a system, to identify patterns of the manifestations of the given phenomenon, and to translate them into concrete practices.

Infection in the ischemic lower extremity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, D E; Marek, J M; Langsfeld, M

1998-06-01

Infections in the lower extremity of the patient with ischemia can cover a broad spectrum of different diseases. An understanding of the particular pathophysiologic circumstances in the ischemic extremity can be of great value in understanding the natural history of the disease and the potential complications that may occur. Optimizing blood flow to the extremity by using revascularization techniques is important for any patient with an ischemic lower extremity complicated by infection or ulceration. Infections in the ischemic lower extremity require local débridement and systemic antibiotics. For severe infections, such as necrotizing fasciitis or the fetid foot, more extensive local débridement and even amputation may be required. Fundamentals of managing prosthetic graft infection require removing the infected prosthesis, local wound débridement, and systemic antibiotics while attempting to preserve viability of the lower extremity using autogenous graft reconstruction.

Total synthesis and related studies of large, strained, and bioactive natural products

Science.gov (United States)

HIRAMA, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Our chemical syntheses and related scientific investigations of natural products with complex architectures and powerful biological activities are described, focusing on the very large 3 nm-long polycyclic ethers called the ciguatoxins, highly strained and labile chromoprotein antitumor antibiotics featuring nine-membered enediyne cores, and extremely potent anthelmintic macrolides called the avermectins. PMID:27725470

Extremely stable soluble high molecular mass multi-protein complex with DNase activity in human placental tissue.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgeniya E Burkova

Full Text Available Human placenta is an organ which protects, feeds, and regulates the grooving of the embryo. Therefore, identification and characterization of placental components including proteins and their multi-protein complexes is an important step to understanding the placenta function. We have obtained and analyzed for the first time an extremely stable multi-protein complex (SPC, ∼ 1000 kDa from the soluble fraction of three human placentas. By gel filtration on Sepharose-4B, the SPC was well separated from other proteins of the placenta extract. Light scattering measurements and gel filtration showed that the SPC is stable in the presence of NaCl, MgCl2, acetonitrile, guanidinium chloride, and Triton in high concentrations, but dissociates efficiently in the presence of 8 M urea, 50 mM EDTA, and 0.5 M NaCl. Such a stable complex is unlikely to be a casual associate of different proteins. According to SDS-PAGE and MALDI mass spectrometry data, this complex contains many major glycosylated proteins with low and moderate molecular masses (MMs 4-14 kDa and several moderately abundant (79.3, 68.5, 52.8, and 27.2 kDa as well as minor proteins with higher MMs. The SPC treatment with dithiothreitol led to a disappearance of some protein bands and revealed proteins with lower MMs. The SPCs from three placentas efficiently hydrolyzed plasmid supercoiled DNA with comparable rates and possess at least two DNA-binding sites with different affinities for a 12-mer oligonucleotide. Progress in study of placental protein complexes can promote understanding of their biological functions.

Meaning and Forms of Political Extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uwe Backes

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The article seeks to contribute to the conceptualisation of political extremism and to lay a foundation for further theoretical studies which are explanatory in nature. A sketch of the history of the concepts follows a discussion of structural characteristics and then a typological examination of forms of extremism, particularly those of the 20th and 21st century.

Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-12-07

The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

THE NATURE OF Lyα BLOBS: POWERED BY EXTREME STARBURSTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cen, Renyue; Zheng, Zheng

2013-01-01

We present a new model for the observed Lyα blobs (LABs) within the context of the standard cold dark matter model. In this model, LABs are the most massive halos with the strongest clustering (protoclusters) undergoing extreme starbursts in the high-z universe. Aided by calculations of detailed radiative transfer of Lyα photons through ultrahigh resolution (159 pc), large-scale (≥30 Mpc) adaptive mesh refinement cosmological hydrodynamic simulations with galaxy formation, this model is shown to be able to, for the first time, reproduce simultaneously the global Lyα luminosity function and the luminosity-size relation of the observed LABs. Physically, a combination of dust attenuation of Lyα photons within galaxies, clustering of galaxies, and the complex propagation of Lyα photons through the circumgalactic and intergalactic medium gives rise to the large sizes and the irregular isophotal shapes of LABs that are frequently observed. A generic and unique prediction of this model is that there should be strong far-infrared (FIR) sources within each LAB with the most luminous FIR source likely representing the gravitational center of the protocluster, not necessarily the apparent center of the Lyα emission of the LAB or the most luminous optical source. Upcoming ALMA observations should unambiguously test this prediction. If verified, LABs will provide very valuable laboratories for studying the formation of galaxies in the most overdense regions of the universe at a time when the global star formation was the most vigorous

The Nature of Lyα Blobs: Powered by Extreme Starbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Cen, Renyue; Zheng, Zheng

2013-10-01

We present a new model for the observed Lyα blobs (LABs) within the context of the standard cold dark matter model. In this model, LABs are the most massive halos with the strongest clustering (protoclusters) undergoing extreme starbursts in the high-z universe. Aided by calculations of detailed radiative transfer of Lyα photons through ultrahigh resolution (159 pc), large-scale (>=30 Mpc) adaptive mesh refinement cosmological hydrodynamic simulations with galaxy formation, this model is shown to be able to, for the first time, reproduce simultaneously the global Lyα luminosity function and the luminosity-size relation of the observed LABs. Physically, a combination of dust attenuation of Lyα photons within galaxies, clustering of galaxies, and the complex propagation of Lyα photons through the circumgalactic and intergalactic medium gives rise to the large sizes and the irregular isophotal shapes of LABs that are frequently observed. A generic and unique prediction of this model is that there should be strong far-infrared (FIR) sources within each LAB with the most luminous FIR source likely representing the gravitational center of the protocluster, not necessarily the apparent center of the Lyα emission of the LAB or the most luminous optical source. Upcoming ALMA observations should unambiguously test this prediction. If verified, LABs will provide very valuable laboratories for studying the formation of galaxies in the most overdense regions of the universe at a time when the global star formation was the most vigorous.

Attribution of climate extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

2015-08-01

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

2017-01-01

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Utilization of manual therapy to the lumbar spine in conjunction with traditional conservative care for individuals with bilateral lower extremity complex regional pain syndrome: A case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Walston, Zachary; Hernandez, Luis; Yake, Dale

2018-06-06

Conservative therapies for complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) have traditionally focused on exercise and desensitization techniques targeted at the involved extremity. The primary purpose of this case series is to report on the potential benefit of utilizing manual therapy to the lumbar spine in conjunction with traditional conservative care when treating patients with lower extremity CRPS. Two patients with the diagnosis of lower extremity CRPS were treated with manual therapy to the lumbar spine in conjunction with education, exercise, desensitization, and soft tissue techniques for the extremity. Patient 1 received 13 sessions over 6 weeks resulting in a 34-point improvement in oswestry disability index (ODI) and 35-point improvement in lower extremity functional scale (LEFS). Patient 2 received 21 sessions over 12 weeks resulting in a 28-point improvement in ODI and a 41-point improvement in LEFS. Both patients exhibited reductions in pain and clinically meaningful improvements in function. Manual therapies when applied to the lumbar spine in these patients as part of a comprehensive treatment plan resulted in improved spinal mobility, decreased pain, and reduction is distal referred symptoms. Although one cannot infer a cause and effect relationship from a case series, this report identifies meaningful clinical outcomes potentially associated with manual physical therapy to the lumbar spine for two patients with complex regional pain syndrome type 1.

Mergers and acquisitions in professional organizations: a complex adaptive systems approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Walls, M E; McDaniel, R R

1999-09-01

Nurse managers face unique challenges as they cope with mergers and acquisitions among health care organizations. These challenges can be better understood if it is recognized that health care institutions are professional organizations and that the transformations required are extremely difficult. These difficulties are caused, in part, by the institutionalized nature of professional organizations, and this nature is explicated. Professional organizations are stubborn. They are repositories of expertise and values that are societal in origin and difficult to change. When professional organizations are understood as complex adaptive systems, complexity theory offers insight that provide strategies for managing mergers and acquisitions that may not be apparent when more traditional conceptualizations of professional organizations are used. Specific managerial techniques consistent with both the institutionalized characteristics and the complex adaptive systems characteristics of professional organizations are offered to nurse managers.

Extreme-scale Algorithms and Solver Resilience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dongarra, Jack [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2016-12-10

A widening gap exists between the peak performance of high-performance computers and the performance achieved by complex applications running on these platforms. Over the next decade, extreme-scale systems will present major new challenges to algorithm development that could amplify this mismatch in such a way that it prevents the productive use of future DOE Leadership computers due to the following; Extreme levels of parallelism due to multicore processors; An increase in system fault rates requiring algorithms to be resilient beyond just checkpoint/restart; Complex memory hierarchies and costly data movement in both energy and performance; Heterogeneous system architectures (mixing CPUs, GPUs, etc.); and Conflicting goals of performance, resilience, and power requirements.

Complex Nonlinearity Chaos, Phase Transitions, Topology Change and Path Integrals

CERN Document Server

Ivancevic, Vladimir G

2008-01-01

Complex Nonlinearity: Chaos, Phase Transitions, Topology Change and Path Integrals is a book about prediction & control of general nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of high-dimensional complex systems of various physical and non-physical nature and their underpinning geometro-topological change. The book starts with a textbook-like expose on nonlinear dynamics, attractors and chaos, both temporal and spatio-temporal, including modern techniques of chaos–control. Chapter 2 turns to the edge of chaos, in the form of phase transitions (equilibrium and non-equilibrium, oscillatory, fractal and noise-induced), as well as the related field of synergetics. While the natural stage for linear dynamics comprises of flat, Euclidean geometry (with the corresponding calculation tools from linear algebra and analysis), the natural stage for nonlinear dynamics is curved, Riemannian geometry (with the corresponding tools from nonlinear, tensor algebra and analysis). The extreme nonlinearity – chaos – corresponds to th...

Poly-functional description of metal complexation by natural organic matter: theory and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buffle, J.; Filella, M.; Altmann, R.S.

1995-01-01

The Differential Equilibrium Function (DEF) approach to metal complexation interpretation and prediction is compared to other models or approaches. The basic features of DEF are summarized, both from the experimental and theoretical points of view. The relation of DEF with key environmental concepts or parameters, in particular minor vs major complexing sites, the buffering intensity of natural organic matter (NOM), and their poly functional vs polyelectrolyte properties, is discussed. The relation between DEF and Freundlich isotherm is described quantitatively. The practical applications of DEF are discussed for (i) interpretation of metal complexation by NOM, and (ii) prediction of metal complexation by NOM. It is shown that DEF (i.e. sound extrapolation is possible with care). DEF cans be readily incorporated in metal species distribution codes (e.g. MINEQL). DEF is not equivalent to a molecular complexation model which describes complexation at each individual site; DEF gives a rigorous representation of complexation by NOM as a whole chemical system. (authors). 23 refs., 6 figs

Study of vitamin A derivative complexation in natural and modified cyclodextrins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weisse, Sandrine

1999-01-01

This research thesis reports a test of solubilisation and stabilisation of retinol, a highly hydrophobic and unsteady molecule, by natural or modified cyclodextrins. The author first recalls retinol physical-chemical characteristics, and then evokes the different techniques (other than cyclodextrins) used to modify these characteristics. Then, the author addresses the complexes of inclusion of retinol in cyclodextrins, and the associated characterization techniques [fr

Mitigating Local Natural Disaster through Social Aware Preparedness Using Complexity Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Supadli, Irwan; Saputri, Andini; Mawengkang, Herman

2018-01-01

During and after natural disaster, such as, eruption of vulcano, many people have to abandon their living place to a temporary shelter. Usually, there could be several time for the occurrence of the eruption. This situation, for example, happened at Sinabung vulcano, located in Karo district of North Sumatera Province, Indonesia. The people in the disaster area have become indifferent. In terms of the society, the local natural disaster problem belong to a complex societal problem. This research is to find a way what should be done to these society to raise their social awareness that they had experienced serious natural disaster and they will be able to live normally and sustainable as before. Societal complexity approach is used to solve the problems. Social studies referred to in this activity are to analyze the social impacts arising from the implementation of the relocation itself. Scope of social impact assessments include are The social impact of the development program of relocation, including the impact of construction activities and long-term impact of construction activity, particularly related to the source and use of clean water, sewerage system, drainage and waste management (solid waste), Social impacts arising associated with occupant relocation sites and the availability of infrastructure (public facilities, include: worship facilities, health and education) in the local environment (pre-existing). Social analysis carried out on the findings of the field, the study related documents and observations of the condition of the existing social environment Siosar settlements.

Floristic quality assessment of one natural and three restored wetland complexes in North Dakota, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Shaffer, Terry L.

2002-01-01

Floristic quality assessment is potentially an important tool for conservation efforts in the northern Great Plains of North America, but it has received little rigorous evaluation. Floristic quality assessments rely on coefficients assigned to each plant species of a region’s flora based on the conservatism of each species relative to others in the region. These “coefficients of conservatism” (C values) are assigned by a panel of experts familiar with a region’s flora. The floristic quality assessment method has faced some criticism due to the subjective nature of these assignments. To evaluate the effect of this subjectivity on floristic quality assessments, we performed separate evaluations of the native plant communities in a natural wetland complex and three restored wetland complexes. In our first assessment, we used C values assigned “subjectively” by the Northern Great Plains Floristic Quality Assessment Panel. We then performed an independent assessment using the observed distributions of species among a group of wetlands that ranged from highly disturbed to largely undisturbed (data-generated C values). Using the panel-assigned C values, mean C values (C¯">C¯C¯) of the restored wetlands rarely exceeded 3.4 and never exceeded 3.9, with the highest values occurring in the oldest restored complex; all but two wetlands in the natural wetland complex had a C¯">C¯C¯ greater than 3.9. Floristic quality indices (FQI) for the restored wetlands rarely exceeded 22 and usually reached maximums closer to 19, with higher values occurring again in the oldest restored complex; only two wetlands in the natural complex had an FQI less than 22. We observed that 95% confidence limits for species richness and percent natives overlapped greatly among wetland complexes, whereas confidence limits for both C¯">C¯C¯ and FQI overlapped little. C¯">C¯C¯ and FQI values were consistently greater when we used the datagenerated C values than when we used the

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Investigations on complexing cation exchangers and their use for trace analysis in natural waters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lang, H.

1991-12-01

The practicability of cation preconcentrations from natural waters by use of EDTrA- and 5-s-oxine- celluloses has been studied. For that purpose the protonation constants as well as the complexation capacities were determined by use of acid/base titrations. In additional titration experiments the complex stability constants for Cu 2+ , Mn 2+ , Co 2+ , Ni 2+ and Ca 2+ were determined examplarely. The interpretation of the experiments was performed using an optimised fit between calculated and experimentally determined pH-titration curves. Calculations have been done by the computer code 'MINEQL'. The determined stability constants are in the same order of magnitude as those given in literature for the water soluble complexes of EDTA, NTA or 5-s-oxine. The preconcentration of cations from natural water samples occurs in accordance with the theoretical predictions. Not ignorable disturbances appear for cations forming hydroxides or oxides in neutral or weakly acidic solutions. By use of radioactive isotopes for Sn 2+ , Zn 4+ and Nb 5+ it can be shown that those ions may form particles or colloids in natural waters. These particles will be filtered in the columns packed with the celluloses and can hardly be removed from there. (author)

Communicating natural hazards. The case of marine extreme events and the importance of the forecast's errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marone, Eduardo; Camargo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

Scientific knowledge has to fulfill some necessary conditions. Among them, it has to be properly communicated. Usually, scientists (mis)understand that the communication requirement is satisfied by publishing their results on peer reviewed journals. Society claims for information in other formats or languages and other tools and approaches have to be used, otherwise the scientific discoveries will not fulfill its social mean. However, scientists are not so well trained to do so. These facts are particularly relevant when the scientific work has to deal with natural hazards, which do not affect just a lab or a computer experiment, but the life and fate of human beings. We are actually working with marine extreme events related with sea level changes, waves and other coastal hazards. Primary, the work is developed on the classic scientific format, but focusing not only in the stochastic way of predicting such extreme events, but estimating the potential errors the forecasting methodologies intrinsically have. The scientific results are translated to a friendly format required by stakeholders (which are financing part of the work). Finally, we hope to produce a document prepared for the general public. Each of the targets has their own characteristics and we have to use the proper communication tools and languages. Also, when communicating such knowledge, we have to consider that stakeholders and general public have no obligation of understanding the scientific language, but scientists have the responsibility of translating their discoveries and predictions in a proper way. The information on coastal hazards is analyzed in statistical and numerical ways, departing from long term observation of, for instance, sea level. From the analysis it is possible to recognize different natural regimes and to present the return times of extreme events, while from the numerical models, properly tuned to reproduce the same past ocean behavior using hindcast approaches, it is

Correlation of mitochondrial protein expression in complexes I to V with natural and induced forms of canine idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Rosana; Solter, Philip F; Sisson, D David; Oyama, Mark A; Prosek, Robert

2006-06-01

To identify qualitative and quantitative differences in cardiac mitochondrial protein expression in complexes I to V between healthy dogs and dogs with natural or induced dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Left ventricle samples were obtained from 7 healthy dogs, 7 Doberman Pinschers with naturally occurring DCM, and 7 dogs with DCM induced by rapid right ventricular pacing. Fresh and frozen mitochondrial fractions were isolated from the left ventricular free wall and analyzed by 2-dimensional electrophoresis. Protein spots that increased or decreased in density by 2-fold or greater between groups were analyzed by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry or quadrupole selecting, quadrupole collision cell, time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A total of 22 altered mitochondrial proteins were identified in complexes I to V. Ten and 12 were found in complex I and complexes II to V, respectively. Five were mitochondrial encoded, and 17 were nuclear encoded. Most altered mitochondrial proteins in tissue specimens from dogs with naturally occurring DCM were associated with complexes I and V, whereas in tissue specimens from dogs subjected to rapid ventricular pacing, complexes I and IV were more affected. In the experimentally induced form of DCM, only nuclear-encoded subunits were changed in complex I. In both disease groups, the 22-kd subunit was downregulated. Natural and induced forms of DCM resulted in altered mitochondrial protein expression in complexes I to V. However, subcellular differences between the experimental and naturally occurring forms of DCM may exist.

Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

2014-01-01

Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

The personal dispositions of violent extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davydov D.G.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the differences in the nature of extremism and radicalism, and the necessity of introducing the concept of "violent extremism." It is shown that the ideology is the explanation of extremist behavior, rather than its cause. The ideology of extremism often eclectic, contradictory and can easily be transformed by changing the object of hostility, depending on the situation. For the description of the psychological causes of extremism it is proposed to use the concept of personal disposition. Disposition is the preferred way to subjective interpretation of reality and reflects both the specific needs of a person as well the typical social situations where it realized and personal experience. Considered the following dispositions of violent extremism: the Cult of force and aggression, Intolerance, Out-group hostility Conventional coercion, Social pessimism and destructiveness, Mystical, Fighting and overcoming, Nihilism to law, Anti-subjectivism. It is proposed to use these dispositions as diagnostic criteria and for preventing and correcting.

Magnetars: Challenging the Extremes of Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Kouveliotou, Chryssa

2011-01-01

Magnetars are magnetically powered rotating neutron stars with extreme magnetic fields (over 10(exp 14) Gauss). They are discovered and emit predominantly in the X- and gamma-rays. Very few sources (roughly 15) have been found since their discovery in 1987. NASA s Fermi Observatory was launched June 11, 2009; the Fermi Gamma Ray Burst Monitor (GBM) began normal operations on July 14, about a month after launch, when the trigger algorithms were enabled. Since then, we recorded emission from four magnetar sources; of these, only one was an old magnetar: SGR 1806+20. The other three detections were two brand new sources, SGR J0501+4516, discovered with Swift and extensively monitored with both Swift and GBM, SGR J0418+5729, discovered with GBM and the Interplanetary Network (IPN), and SGR J1550-5418, a source originally classified as an Anomalous X-ray Pulsar (AXP 1E1547.0-5408). In my talk I will give a short history of the discovery of magnetars and describe how this, once relatively esoteric field, has emerged as a link between several astrophysical areas including Gamma-Ray Bursts. Finally, I will describe the properties of these sources and the current status of our knowledge of the magnetar population and birth rate.

Natural radioactivity in extreme south of Bahia, Brazil, using gamma-ray spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Danilo C.; Oliveira, Arno H.; Silva, Mario R.S.; Penna, Rodrigo; Santos, Talita O.; Pereira, Claubia; Rocha, Zildete; Menezes, Maria Angela B.C.

2009-01-01

The concentrations activity of natural radionuclides in beach sand in extreme south of Bahia-Brazil was measured using gamma-ray spectrometry. The activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in beach sand ranged from 14.5 to 8,318.4, 20.5 to 18,450.0, 15.4 to 3,109.0 Bq/kg, with a mean value of 1,078.2, 2,429.6, and 417.0 Bq/kg respectively. The values of radiation hazard indexes in sands of Alcobaca, Caraiva and Cumuruxatiba are higher than the limits preconized by Beretka and Mathew. The use of these sands may be not safe in building constructions. The results show that the absorbed dose rates range from 20.4-15,116.6 nGy/h with mean value of 1762.7. The highest value of gamma dose rates among the studied beaches was found in Cumuruxatiba (15,116.6 nGy/h). The annual effective dose varied between 0.028 and 18.539 mSv/year, with a mean of 2.162 mSv/year. Values of Alcobaca, Trancoso, Caraiva and Cumuruxatiba are higher than the worldwide average for outdoor annual effective dose, 0.07 mSv/year. (author)

[Indiscriminate use of Latin name for natural Cordyceps sinensis insect-fungi complex and multiple Ophiocordyceps sinensis fungi].

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yi-Sang; Zhu, Jia-Shi

2016-04-01

Natural Cordyceps sinensis(Dongchongxiacao) is an insect-fungi complex containing multiple Ophiocordyceps sinensis(≡Cordyceps sinensis) fungi and dead body of larva of the family of Hepialidae. But natural C. sinensis and O. sinensis fungi use the same Latin name, resulting in uncertainty of the specific meaning, even disturbing the formulation and implementation of governmental policies and regulations, and influencing consumer psychology onthe market. This paper reviews the history and current status of the indiscriminate use of the Latin name O. sinensis for both the natural insect-fungi complex C. sinensis and O. sinensis fungi and lists the rename suggetions. Some scholars suggested using the term O. sinensis for the fungi and renaming the natural C. sinensis "Chinese cordyceps". Others suggested renaming the natural C. sinensis "Ophiocordyceps & Hepialidae". Both suggestions have not reached general consensus due to various academic concerns. This paper also reviews the exacerbation of the academic uncertainties when forcing implementing the 2011 Amsterdam Declaration "One Fungus=One Name" under the academic debate. Joint efforts of mycological, zoological and botany-TCM taxonomists and properly initiating the dispute systems offered by International Mycology Association may solve the debate on the indiscriminate use of the Latin name O.sinensis for the natural insect-fungi complex,the teleomorph and anamorph(s) of O. sinensis fungi. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Ultrastable cellulosome-adhesion complex tightens under load.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoeler, Constantin; Malinowska, Klara H; Bernardi, Rafael C; Milles, Lukas F; Jobst, Markus A; Durner, Ellis; Ott, Wolfgang; Fried, Daniel B; Bayer, Edward A; Schulten, Klaus; Gaub, Hermann E; Nash, Michael A

2014-12-08

Challenging environments have guided nature in the development of ultrastable protein complexes. Specialized bacteria produce discrete multi-component protein networks called cellulosomes to effectively digest lignocellulosic biomass. While network assembly is enabled by protein interactions with commonplace affinities, we show that certain cellulosomal ligand-receptor interactions exhibit extreme resistance to applied force. Here, we characterize the ligand-receptor complex responsible for substrate anchoring in the Ruminococcus flavefaciens cellulosome using single-molecule force spectroscopy and steered molecular dynamics simulations. The complex withstands forces of 600-750 pN, making it one of the strongest bimolecular interactions reported, equivalent to half the mechanical strength of a covalent bond. Our findings demonstrate force activation and inter-domain stabilization of the complex, and suggest that certain network components serve as mechanical effectors for maintaining network integrity. This detailed understanding of cellulosomal network components may help in the development of biocatalysts for production of fuels and chemicals from renewable plant-derived biomass.

Aortic dissection: natural course of disease? Report of two cases representing the extremes of the condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tollefsen, Isak; Joergensen, Ingrid K.; Woie, Leik; Fossdal, Jan E.

2001-01-01

Objective: In a time when diagnostic methods and above all, surgical as well as interventional radiological treatment for aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections have reached a point nobody could think of a few years back, the present authors feel that it is worth while to remind oneself of the natural course of disease in these conditions. Taking into consideration the high morbidity and mortality rate in surgically treated patients with aortic dissection, and the high complication rate per- and postoperatively, it also seems right to ask if a more expectative and conservative approach to the condition sometimes perhaps may be justified. Methods and material: Two case reports are given. One was a 15-year-old boy with Stanford (Daily) type B dissection who statistically ought to have a good prognosis, but who died within 2 h after onset of symptoms. The other patient, a middle-aged woman with Stanford type A dissection, survived for 25 years without operation. Conclusion: These two cases, though not unique viewed separately, we consider to represent the extremes of the condition and also a natural course of disease, while none of them was operated on

Aortic dissection: natural course of disease? Report of two cases representing the extremes of the condition.

Science.gov (United States)

Tollefsen, I; Jørgensen, I K; Woie, L; Fossdal, J E

2001-10-01

In a time when diagnostic methods and above all, surgical as well as interventional radiological treatment for aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections have reached a point nobody could think of a few years back, the present authors feel that it is worth while to remind oneself of the natural course of disease in these conditions. Taking into consideration the high morbidity and mortality rate in surgically treated patients with aortic dissection, and the high complication rate per- and postoperatively, it also seems right to ask if a more expectative and conservative approach to the condition sometimes perhaps may be justified. Two case reports are given. One was a 15-year-old boy with Stanford (Daily) type B dissection who statistically ought to have a good prognosis, but who died within 2 h after onset of symptoms. The other patient, a middle-aged woman with Stanford type A dissection, survived for 25 years without operation. These two cases, though not unique viewed separately, we consider to represent the extremes of the condition and also a natural course of disease, while none of them was operated on.

Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Beniston, Martin

2018-03-10

This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Christian Extremism as a Domestic Terror Threat

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-19

extremism with cultural relativism to universally deem extremist actions as justified.8 Religious extremism and conflict are not new. Conceivably, as...legitimized this practice, they forfeited their legitimacy and moral authority to govern.” Rudolph went on to state that his actions were to “embarrass and...funerals?7 Religion remains a significantly complex and controversial subject within any social culture . Like any social construct, religion is subject

Disaster forensics understanding root cause and complex causality

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

This book aims to uncover the root causes of natural and man-made disasters by going beyond the typical reports and case studies conducted post-disaster. It opens the black box of disasters by presenting ‘forensic analysis approaches’ to disasters, thereby revealing the complex causality that characterizes them and explaining how and why hazards do, or do not, become disasters. This yields ‘systemic’ strategies for managing disasters. Recently the global threat landscape has seen the emergence of high impact, low probability events. Events like Hurricane Katrina, the Great Japan Earthquake and tsunami, Hurricane Sandy, Super Typhoon Haiyan, global terrorist activities have become the new norm. Extreme events challenge our understanding regarding the interdependencies and complexity of the disaster aetiology and are often referred to as Black Swans. Between 2002 and 2011, there were 4130 disasters recorded that resulted from natural hazards around the world. In these, 1,117,527 people perished and a mi...

An Investigation into the Factors Affecting the Design of Nature-Compatible Recreational-Residential Complexes- Instance Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyyedeh Fatemeh Safavi Mirmahalleh

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Explaining tourism concepts, standards of recreational-residential complexes and the methods for accurate treating with nature, this paper tries to study the suitable instances of recreational-residential complexes and to adopt their positive aspects as a design strategy. SWOT matrix was built based on the weaknesses and strengths of the project site and design principles were derived by observing the extracted influential factors. Considering land topography, for example, different areas of buildings were shifted and combined with the nature. - Residential and public zones gained a nice view towards the nature by keeping their orientation and extending them in east-west direction - Service section connected more appropriately with residential and public areas - Sections which do not need extra light such as W.Cs, storages and installation rooms, were considered in a side of the building which was adjacent to soil - In residential section, rhythm was implemented in ceilings and windows - Golden values and proportions were used to design the plane and façade of the complex

Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE)

Science.gov (United States)

Ajayakumar, J.; Shook, E.; Turner, V. K.

2017-10-01

With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE). SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the "North American storm complex" in December 2015, the "snowstorm Jonas" in January 2016, the "West Virginia floods" in June 2016, and the "Hurricane Matthew" in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI) for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with social media data and will be useful

Solvable model with an extreme AGP ground state: relationships among fermion pairs, pairons, and natural spin geminals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, E.G.

1986-01-01

A model many-fermion Hamiltonian is presented for which the ground state is asymptotically an Antisymmetrized Geminal Powers (AGP) wave function with largest possible greatest eigenvalue for its two-particle reduced density matrix. Closed analytical expressions and plane-wave expansions are presented for the generating geminal of the AGP ground state and for its one-particle reduced density matrix. The natural orbitals for this generating geminal are plane waves. The generating geminal shows intensely local character in its intracule and corresponds to the formation of a quasi-boson from two fermions. One may appropriately modify this generating geminal to introduce zero occupation numbers of its one-particle reduced density matrix and to make all the nonzero occupation numbers of its one-particle reduced density matrix equal, thus making this geminal a generator of an extreme AGP wave function, with an extreme large eigenvalue for its two-particle reduced density matrix. Closed analytical expressions are also given for this modified geminal and for its one-particle reduced density matrix. The similarities and differences of the features of this model and the accepted models of the superconducting ground state of electrons in metals, and the superfluid ground state of liquid He 4 are mentioned

Acclimatization to extreme heat

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

Science.gov (United States)

Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

2015-04-01

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

The biomechanics of upper extremity kinematic and kinetic modeling: applications to rehabilitation engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Slavens, Brooke A; Harris, Gerald F

2008-01-01

Human motion analysis has evolved from the lower extremity to the upper extremity. Rehabilitation engineering is reliant upon three-dimensional biome-chanical models for a thorough understanding of upper body motions and forces in order to improve treatment methods, rehabilitation strategies and to prevent injury. Due to the complex nature of upper body movements, a standard biomechanical model does not exist. This paper reviews several kinematic and kinetic rehabilitation engineering models from the literature. These models may capture a single joint; multijoints such as the shoulder, elbow and wrist; or a combination of joints and an ambulatory aid, which serves as the extension of the upper arm. With advances in software and hardware, new models continuously arise due to the clinical questions at hand. When designing a biomechanical upper extremity model, several key components must be determined. These include deciding on the anatomic segments of the model, the number of markers and placement on bony landmarks, the definition of joint coordinate systems, and the description of the joint motions. It is critical to apply the proper model to further our understanding of pathologic populations.

Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2013-12-01

Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, N. W.

2013-01-01

I review the hierarchy of approaches to complex systems, focusing particularly on stochastic equations. I discuss how the main models advocated by the late Benoit Mandelbrot fit into this classification, and how they continue to contribute to cross-disciplinary approaches to the increasingly important problems of correlated extreme events and unresolved scales. The ideas have broad importance, with applications ranging across science areas as diverse as the heavy tailed distributions of intense rainfall in hydrology, after which Mandelbrot named the "Noah effect"; the problem of correlated runs of dry summers in climate, after which the "Joseph effect" was named; and the intermittent, bursty, volatility seen in finance and fluid turbulence.

Book of extremes why the 21st century isn’t like the 20th century

CERN Document Server

Lewis, Ted G

2014-01-01

What makes the 21st century different from the 20th century? This century is the century of extremes -- political, economic, social, and global black-swan events happening with increasing frequency and severity. Book of Extremes is a tour of the current reality as seen through the lens of complexity theory – the only theory capable of explaining why the Arab Spring happened and why it will happen again; why social networks in the virtual world behave like flashmobs in the physical world; why financial bubbles blow up in our faces and will grow and burst again; why the rich get richer and will continue to get richer regardless of governmental policies; why the future of economic wealth and national power lies in comparative advantage and global trade; why natural disasters will continue to get bigger and happen more frequently; and why the Internet – invented by the US -- is headed for a global monopoly controlled by a non-US corporation. It is also about the extreme innovations and heroic innovators yet t...

Learning disabilities among extremely preterm children without neurosensory impairment: Comorbidity, neuropsychological profiles and scholastic outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Samantha; Strauss, Victoria; Gilmore, Camilla; Jaekel, Julia; Marlow, Neil; Wolke, Dieter

2016-12-01

Children born extremely preterm are at high risk for intellectual disability, learning disabilities, executive dysfunction and special educational needs, but little is understood about the comorbidity of intellectual and learning disabilities in this population. This study explored comorbidity in intellectual disability (ID) and learning disabilities (LD) in children born extremely preterm (EP; disabilities. LD were associated with a 3 times increased risk for SEN. However, EP children with ID alone had poorer neuropsychological abilities and curriculum-based attainment than children with no disabilities, yet there was no increase in SEN provision among this group. EP children are at high risk for comorbid intellectual and learning disabilities. Education professionals should be aware of the complex nature of EP children's difficulties and the need for multi-domain assessments to guide intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of second-sphere cation nature on the character of IR spectra of molybdeum(4, 5) cyanide complexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zubritskaya, D.I.; Semenishin, D.I.; Vretsena, N.B.; Chernyak, B.I.

1989-01-01

The effect of nature of second-sphere cations on IR spectra of molybdeum (4, 5) cyanide complexes is studied. It is found that the increase in the first ionization potential (radius decrease) brings about the increase in the frequency of valent variations ν (CN). This proves the possibility of formation of bridge bonds Mo-CN-M in the compounds (M-alkali, alkaline earth or rare earth metal, Cs, Y). The conclusion is made on a considerable effect of the nature of second-sphere cations and oxidation degree of complexing agent atoms on the nature of IR spectra of octacyanomolybdates (4, 5)

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: nature-nurture interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Clancy, John; Nobes, Maggie

A person's health status is rarely constant, it is usually subject to continual change as a person moves from health to illness and usually back to health again; the health-illness continuum illustrates this dynamism. This highlights the person's various states of health and illness (ranging from extremely good health to clinically defined mild, moderate and severe illness) and their fluctuations throughout the life span, until ultimately leading to the pathology associated with the person's death. Maintenance of a stable homeostatic environment within the body to support the stability of this continuum depends on a complex series of ultimately intracellular chemical reactions. These reactions are activated by environmental factors that cause the expression of genes associated with healthy phenotypes as well as illness susceptibility genes associated with homeostatic imbalances. Obviously, the body aims to support intracellular and extracellular environments allied with health; however, the complexity of these nature-nurture interactions results in illness throughout an individual's life span. This paper will discuss the nature-nurture interactions of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Effects of molecular composition of natural organic matter on ferric iron complexation at circumneutral pH.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujii, Manabu; Imaoka, Akira; Yoshimura, Chihiro; Waite, T D

2014-04-15

Thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for ferric iron (Fe[III]) complexation by well-characterized humic substances (HS) from various origins were determined by a competitive ligand method with 5-sulfosalicylic acid at circumneutral pH (6.0-8.0) and an ionic strength of ∼0.06 M. The measured Fe binding properties including conditional stability constants and complexation capacities ranged over more than 2 orders of magnitude, depending on the origin and the particular operationally defined fraction of HS examined. Statistical comparison of the complexation parameters to a range of chemical properties of the HS indicated a strong positive correlation between Fe(III) complexation capacity and aromatic carbon content in the HS at all pHs examined. In contrast, the complexation capacity was determined to be up to a few orders of magnitude smaller than the concentration of carboxylic and phenolic groups present. Therefore, specific functional groups including those resident in the proximity of aromatic structures within the HS are likely preferable for Fe(III) coordination under the conditions examined. Overall, our results suggest that the concentration of dissolved Fe(III) complexes in natural waters is substantially influenced by variation in HS characteristics in addition to other well-known factors such as HS concentration and nature and concentration of competing cations present.

Natural lecithin promotes neural network complexity and activity

Science.gov (United States)

Latifi, Shahrzad; Tamayol, Ali; Habibey, Rouhollah; Sabzevari, Reza; Kahn, Cyril; Geny, David; Eftekharpour, Eftekhar; Annabi, Nasim; Blau, Axel; Linder, Michel; Arab-Tehrany, Elmira

2016-01-01

Phospholipids in the brain cell membranes contain different polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), which are critical to nervous system function and structure. In particular, brain function critically depends on the uptake of the so-called “essential” fatty acids such as omega-3 (n-3) and omega-6 (n-6) PUFAs that cannot be readily synthesized by the human body. We extracted natural lecithin rich in various PUFAs from a marine source and transformed it into nanoliposomes. These nanoliposomes increased neurite outgrowth, network complexity and neural activity of cortical rat neurons in vitro. We also observed an upregulation of synapsin I (SYN1), which supports the positive role of lecithin in synaptogenesis, synaptic development and maturation. These findings suggest that lecithin nanoliposomes enhance neuronal development, which may have an impact on devising new lecithin delivery strategies for therapeutic applications. PMID:27228907

Natural lecithin promotes neural network complexity and activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Latifi, Shahrzad; Tamayol, Ali; Habibey, Rouhollah; Sabzevari, Reza; Kahn, Cyril; Geny, David; Eftekharpour, Eftekhar; Annabi, Nasim; Blau, Axel; Linder, Michel; Arab-Tehrany, Elmira

2016-05-27

Phospholipids in the brain cell membranes contain different polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), which are critical to nervous system function and structure. In particular, brain function critically depends on the uptake of the so-called "essential" fatty acids such as omega-3 (n-3) and omega-6 (n-6) PUFAs that cannot be readily synthesized by the human body. We extracted natural lecithin rich in various PUFAs from a marine source and transformed it into nanoliposomes. These nanoliposomes increased neurite outgrowth, network complexity and neural activity of cortical rat neurons in vitro. We also observed an upregulation of synapsin I (SYN1), which supports the positive role of lecithin in synaptogenesis, synaptic development and maturation. These findings suggest that lecithin nanoliposomes enhance neuronal development, which may have an impact on devising new lecithin delivery strategies for therapeutic applications.

A compliant mechanism for inspecting extremely confined spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Mascareñas, David; Moreu, Fernando; Cantu, Precious; Shields, Daniel; Wadden, Jack; El Hadedy, Mohamed; Farrar, Charles

2017-11-01

We present a novel, compliant mechanism that provides the capability to navigate extremely confined spaces for the purpose of infrastructure inspection. Extremely confined spaces are commonly encountered during infrastructure inspection. Examples of such spaces can include pipes, conduits, and ventilation ducts. Often these infrastructure features go uninspected simply because there is no viable way to access their interior. In addition, it is not uncommon for extremely confined spaces to possess a maze-like architecture that must be selectively navigated in order to properly perform an inspection. Efforts by the imaging sensor community have resulted in the development of imaging sensors on the millimeter length scale. Due to their compact size, they are able to inspect many extremely confined spaces of interest, however, the means to deliver these sensors to the proper location to obtain the desired images are lacking. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from the field of endoscopic surgery. Specifically we consider the work that has already been done to create long flexible needles that are capable of being steered through the human body. These devices are typically referred to as ‘steerable needles.’ Steerable needle technology is not directly applicable to the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces, but it does provide guidance on how this problem should be approached. Specifically, the super-elastic nitinol tubing material that allows steerable needles to operate is also appropriate for the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces. Furthermore, the portion of the mechanism that enters the extremely confined space is completely mechanical in nature. The mechanical nature of the device is an advantage when the extremely confined space features environmental hazards such as radiation that could degrade an electromechanically operated mechanism. Here, we present a compliant mechanism

Dependence of stability of lanthanide(3) complexes with coloured ligands on the element nature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poluehktov, N S; Meshkova, S B; Rusakova, N V [AN Ukrainskoj SSR, Odessa. Fiziko-Khimicheskij Inst.

1984-07-01

The change in the colour intensity of Ln(3) complexes with coloured ligands (methyl thymol blue, glycine cresol red, stilbazo, glycine thymol blue, methyl ortanyl S, ortanyl B, phthalexone S, semiphthalexone S, cresolphtalexone, sulfarsazen) in the natural series of lanthanoids is considered. A correlation equation is suggested that permits to describe the relative colour intensity (quenching molar coefficients, stability constants) of complexes in the series of lanthanide(3) ions versus the number of f-electrons, spin and orbital quantum numbers of the ground states. Using the ratio obtained it is possible to calculate the values of appropriate functions of complexes of elements for which such data are not available.

Neutron scattering with deuterium labeling reveals the nature of complexes formed by Ca{sup 2+}-binding proteins and their regulatory targets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trewhella, J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM (United States)

1994-12-01

Small-angle neutron scattering with deuterium labeling is extremely useful for studying the structures of complex biomolecular assemblies in solution. The different neutron scattering properties of their isotopes of hydrogen combines with the ability to uniformly label biomolecules with deuterium allow one to characterize the structures and relative dispositions of the individual components of an assembly using methods of {open_quotes}contrast variation.{close_quotes} We have applied these techniques to studies of the evolutionarily related dumbbell-shaped Ca{sup 2+}-binding proteins calmodulin and troponin C and their interactions with the target proteins whose activities they regulate. Ca{sup 2+} is one of the simplest of nature`s messengers used in the communication pathways between physiological stimulus and cellular response. The signaling mechanism generally involves Ca{sup 2+} binding to a protein and inducing a conformational change that transmits a signal to modify the activity of a specific target protein. Ca{sup 2+} is thus important in the regulation of a diverse array of intracellular responses, including neurotransmitter release, muscle contraction, the degradation of glycogen to glucose to generate energy, microtubule assembly, membrane phosphorylation, etc. It is the conformational language of the Ca{sup 2+} induced signal transduction that we have sought to understand because of its central importance to biochemical regulation and, hence, to healthy cellular function.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Generalized Extreme Value's shape parameter and its nature for extreme precipitation using long time series and Bayesian approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ragulina, Galina; Reitan, Trond

2016-04-01

Assessing the probability of extreme precipitation events is of great importance in civil planning. This requires understanding of how return values change with different return periods, which is essentially described by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution's shape parameter. Some works in the field have suggested a constant shape parameter, while our analysis indicates a non-universal value. We first re-analyse an older precipitation dataset (169 stations) extended by Norwegian data (71 stations). We show that while each set seems to have a constant shape parameter, it differs between the two datasets, indicating regional differences. For a more comprehensive analysis of spatial effects, we examine a global dataset (1495 stations). We provide shape parameter maps for two models. We find clear evidence for the shape parameter being dependent on elevation while the effect of latitude remains uncertain. Our results confirm an explanation in terms of dominating precipitation systems based on a proxy derived from the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.

Uranium sorption to natural substrates-insights provided by isotope exchange, selective extraction and surface complexation modelling approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waite, T.D.; Payne T.E.; Davis, J.A.

1993-01-01

An extensive experimental program has been conducted over the last three years into the interaction of U(VI) with both single oxides and clays and complex natural substrates from the weathered zone in the vicinity of a uranium ore body in northern Australia. While iron oxides have frequently been considered to account for much of the uptake on such natural substrates, the results of laboratory open-quotes pH edgeclose quotes studies and of isotope exchange and selective extraction studies suggest that other phases must also play a significant role in controlling the partitioning of U(VI) between solid and solution phases. Supporting studies on kaolinite, the dominant clay in this system, provide insight into the most appropriate method of modelling the interaction of U(VI) with these natural substrates. The problems still remaining in adequately describing sorption of radionuclides and trace elements to complex natural substrates are discussed

Assessing the natural and anthropogenic charges of radioactivity in complex ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Daoushy, F.

2010-01-01

Large-scale and long-term assessment of nuclear disasters depends on transport and chemistry processes. Chernobyl dominated by tropospheric and local surface water processes. Assessment strategies for the Nile Basin , and other African rivers, would be different. European surface water are primarily forced by atmospheric and local catchment interactions. Surface water are multi-scale systems with local, regional & global interactions. Natural and artificial radioactivity were assessed in European inland waters. Scales and interactions were detailed using Lake-catchment systems. Surface water interactions in the Nile Basin has much more large scale dynamics as compared by the European ones. The spatio-temporal scales of this complex river system are much more comprehensive due to its complex boundaries and intensive coupling with climate and environment. Lakes and rivers are space-time indicators of atmospheric and land-based human activities

Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-01-01

The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing

Performance evaluation of functioning of natural-industrial system of mining-processing complex with help of analytical and mathematical models

Science.gov (United States)

Bosikov, I. I.; Klyuev, R. V.; Revazov, V. Ch; Pilieva, D. E.

2018-03-01

The article describes research and analysis of hazardous processes occurring in the natural-industrial system and effectiveness assessment of its functioning using mathematical models. Studies of the functioning regularities of the natural and industrial system are becoming increasingly relevant in connection with the formulation of the task of modernizing production and the economy of Russia as a whole. In connection with a significant amount of poorly structured data, it is complicated by regulations for the effective functioning of production processes, social and natural complexes, under which a sustainable development of the natural-industrial system of the mining and processing complex would be ensured. Therefore, the scientific and applied problems, the solution of which allows one to formalize the hidden structural functioning patterns of the natural-industrial system and to make managerial decisions of organizational and technological nature to improve the efficiency of the system, are very relevant.

Natural antimicrobial peptide complexes in the fighting of antibiotic resistant biofilms: Calliphora vicina medicinal maggots.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Gordya

Full Text Available Biofilms, sedimented microbial communities embedded in a biopolymer matrix cause vast majority of human bacterial infections and many severe complications such as chronic inflammatory diseases and cancer. Biofilms' resistance to the host immunity and antibiotics makes this kind of infection particularly intractable. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs are a ubiquitous facet of innate immunity in animals. However, AMPs activity was studied mainly on planktonic bacteria and little is known about their effects on biofilms. We studied structure and anti-biofilm activity of AMP complex produced by the maggots of blowfly Calliphora vicina living in environments extremely contaminated by biofilm-forming germs. The complex exhibits strong cell killing and matrix destroying activity against human pathogenic antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Acinetobacter baumannii biofilms as well as non-toxicity to human immune cells. The complex was found to contain AMPs from defensin, cecropin, diptericin and proline-rich peptide families simultaneously expressed in response to bacterial infection and encoded by hundreds mRNA isoforms. All the families combine cell killing and matrix destruction mechanisms, but the ratio of these effects and antibacterial activity spectrum are specific to each family. These molecules dramatically extend the list of known anti-biofilm AMPs. However, pharmacological development of the complex as a whole can provide significant advantages compared with a conventional one-component approach. In particular, a similar level of activity against biofilm and planktonic bacteria (MBEC/MIC ratio provides the complex advantage over conventional antibiotics. Available methods of the complex in situ and in vitro biosynthesis make this idea practicable.

Natural antimicrobial peptide complexes in the fighting of antibiotic resistant biofilms: Calliphora vicina medicinal maggots.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordya, Natalia; Yakovlev, Andrey; Kruglikova, Anastasia; Tulin, Dmitry; Potolitsina, Evdokia; Suborova, Tatyana; Bordo, Domenico; Rosano, Camillo; Chernysh, Sergey

2017-01-01

Biofilms, sedimented microbial communities embedded in a biopolymer matrix cause vast majority of human bacterial infections and many severe complications such as chronic inflammatory diseases and cancer. Biofilms' resistance to the host immunity and antibiotics makes this kind of infection particularly intractable. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are a ubiquitous facet of innate immunity in animals. However, AMPs activity was studied mainly on planktonic bacteria and little is known about their effects on biofilms. We studied structure and anti-biofilm activity of AMP complex produced by the maggots of blowfly Calliphora vicina living in environments extremely contaminated by biofilm-forming germs. The complex exhibits strong cell killing and matrix destroying activity against human pathogenic antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Acinetobacter baumannii biofilms as well as non-toxicity to human immune cells. The complex was found to contain AMPs from defensin, cecropin, diptericin and proline-rich peptide families simultaneously expressed in response to bacterial infection and encoded by hundreds mRNA isoforms. All the families combine cell killing and matrix destruction mechanisms, but the ratio of these effects and antibacterial activity spectrum are specific to each family. These molecules dramatically extend the list of known anti-biofilm AMPs. However, pharmacological development of the complex as a whole can provide significant advantages compared with a conventional one-component approach. In particular, a similar level of activity against biofilm and planktonic bacteria (MBEC/MIC ratio) provides the complex advantage over conventional antibiotics. Available methods of the complex in situ and in vitro biosynthesis make this idea practicable.

Quantitative analysis of higher hydrocarbons in natural gas using coupled solid-phase extraction / supercritiacal fluid extraction with on-line GC analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, J.G.M.; Cramers, C.A.M.G.; Meulen-Kuijk, van der L.; Smit, A.L.C.; Sandra, P.; Devos, G.

1993-01-01

Characterisation of natural gas with respect to the hydrocarbon content is a challenging analytical problem due to the extremely low concentrations and the complexity of the matrix. In this publication a method is described for fully on-line preconcentration and analysis of n-nonane and higher

Test fields cannot destroy extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natário, José; Queimada, Leonel; Vicente, Rodrigo

2016-01-01

We prove that (possibly charged) test fields satisfying the null energy condition at the event horizon cannot overspin/overcharge extremal Kerr–Newman or Kerr–Newman–anti de Sitter black holes, that is, the weak cosmic censorship conjecture cannot be violated in the test field approximation. The argument relies on black hole thermodynamics (without assuming cosmic censorship), and does not depend on the precise nature of the fields. We also discuss generalizations of this result to other extremal black holes. (paper)

Strides in Preservation of Malawi's Natural Stone

Science.gov (United States)

Kamanga, Tamara; Chisenga, Chikondi; Katonda, Vincent

2017-04-01

The geology of Malawi is broadly grouped into four main lithological units that is the Basement Complex, the Karoo Super group, Tertiary to Quaternary sedimentary deposits and the Chilwa Alkaline province. The basement complex rocks cover much of the country and range in age from late Precambrian to early Paleozoic. They have been affected by three major phases of deformation and metamorphism that is the Irumide, Ubendian and The Pan-African. These rocks comprise gneisses, granulites and schists with associated mafic, ultramafic, syenites and granite rocks. The Karoo System sedimentary rocks range in age from Permian to lower Jurassic and are mainly restricted to two areas in the extreme North and extreme Alkaline Province - late Jurassic to Cretaceous in age, preceded by upper Karoo Dolerite dyke swarms and basaltic lavas, have been intruded into the Basement Complex gneisses of southern Malawi. Malawi is endowed with different types of natural stone deposits most of which remain unexploited and explored. Over twenty quarry operators supply quarry stone for road and building construction in Malawi. Hundreds of artisanal workers continue to supply aggregate stones within and on the outskirts of urban areas. Ornamental stones and granitic dimension stones are also quarried, but in insignificant volumes. In Northern Malawi, there are several granite deposits including the Nyika, which is the largest single outcrop occupying approximately 260.5 km2 , Mtwalo Amazonite an opaque to translucent bluish -green variety of microcline feldspar that occurs in alkali granites and pegmatite, the Ilomba granite (sodalite) occurring in small areas within biotite; apatite, plagioclase and calcite. In the Center, there are the Dzalanyama granites, and the Sani granites. In the South, there are the Mangochi granites. Dolerite and gabbroic rocks spread across the country, treading as black granites. Malawi is also endowed with many deposits of marble. A variety of other igneous

Excitation energy transfer in natural photosynthetic complexes and chlorophyll trefoils: hole-burning and single complex/trefoil spectroscopic studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryszard Jankowiak, Kansas State University, Department of Chemistry, CBC Bldg., Manhattan KS, 66505; Phone: (785) 532-6785

2012-09-12

In this project we studied both natural photosynthetic antenna complexes and various artificial systems (e.g. chlorophyll (Chl) trefoils) using high resolution hole-burning (HB) spectroscopy and excitonic calculations. Results obtained provided more insight into the electronic (excitonic) structure, inhomogeneity, electron-phonon coupling strength, vibrational frequencies, and excitation energy (or electron) transfer (EET) processes in several antennas and reaction centers. For example, our recent work provided important constraints and parameters for more advanced excitonic calculations of CP43, CP47, and PSII core complexes. Improved theoretical description of HB spectra for various model systems offers new insight into the excitonic structure and composition of low-energy absorption traps in very several antenna protein complexes and reaction centers. We anticipate that better understanding of HB spectra obtained for various photosynthetic complexes and their simultaneous fits with other optical spectra (i.e. absorption, emission, and circular dichroism spectra) provides more insight into the underlying electronic structures of these important biological systems. Our recent progress provides a necessary framework for probing the electronic structure of these systems via Hole Burning Spectroscopy. For example, we have shown that the theoretical description of non-resonant holes is more restrictive (in terms of possible site energies) than those of absorption and emission spectra. We have demonstrated that simultaneous description of linear optical spectra along with HB spectra provides more realistic site energies. We have also developed new algorithms to describe both nonresonant and resonant hole-burn spectra using more advanced Redfield theory. Simultaneous description of various optical spectra for complex biological system, e.g. artificial antenna systems, FMO protein complexes, water soluble protein complexes, and various mutants of reaction centers

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

2016-03-31

A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

Exploring the Interaction Natures in Plutonyl (VI Complexes with Topological Analyses of Electron Density

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiguang Du

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The interaction natures between Pu and different ligands in several plutonyl (VI complexes are investigated by performing topological analyses of electron density. The geometrical structures in both gaseous and aqueous phases are obtained with B3LYP functional, and are generally in agreement with available theoretical and experimental results when combined with all-electron segmented all-electron relativistic contracted (SARC basis set. The Pu– O y l bond orders show significant linear dependence on bond length and the charge of oxygen atoms in plutonyl moiety. The closed-shell interactions were identified for Pu-Ligand bonds in most complexes with quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM analyses. Meanwhile, we found that some Pu–Ligand bonds, like Pu–OH−, show weak covalent. The interactive nature of Pu–ligand bonds were revealed based on the interaction quantum atom (IQA energy decomposition approach, and our results indicate that all Pu–Ligand interactions is dominated by the electrostatic attraction interaction as expected. Meanwhile it is also important to note that the quantum mechanical exchange-correlation contributions can not be ignored. By means of the non-covalent interaction (NCI approach it has been found that some weak and repulsion interactions existed in plutonyl(VI complexes, which can not be distinguished by QTAIM, can be successfully identified.

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Extreme Facial Expressions Classification Based on Reality Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Rad, Abdolvahab Ehsani; Rehman, Amjad; Altameem, Ayman

2014-09-01

Extreme expressions are really type of emotional expressions that are basically stimulated through the strong emotion. An example of those extreme expression is satisfied through tears. So to be able to provide these types of features; additional elements like fluid mechanism (particle system) plus some of physics techniques like (SPH) are introduced. The fusion of facile animation with SPH exhibits promising results. Accordingly, proposed fluid technique using facial animation is the real tenor for this research to get the complex expression, like laugh, smile, cry (tears emergence) or the sadness until cry strongly, as an extreme expression classification that's happens on the human face in some cases.

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

On dependence of stability of lanthanide(3) complexes with coloured ligands on the element nature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poluehktov, N.S.; Meshkova, S.B.; Rusakova, N.V.

1984-01-01

The change in the colour intensity of Ln(3) complexes with coloured ligands (methyl thymol blue, glycine cresol red, stilbazo, glycine thymol blue, methyl ortanyl S, ortanyl B, phthalexone S, semiphthalexone S, cresolphtalexone, sulfarsazen) in the natural series of lanthanoids is considered. A correlation equation is suggested that permits to describe the relative colour intensity (quenching molar coefficients, stability constants) of complexes in the series of lanthanide(3) ions versus the number of f-electrons, spin and orbital quantum numbers of the ground states. Using the ratio obtained it is possible to calculate the values of appropriate functions of complexes of elements for which such data are not available

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

Natural product-like virtual libraries: recursive atom-based enumeration.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Melvin J

2011-03-28

A new molecular enumerator is described that allows chemically and architecturally diverse sets of natural product-like and drug-like structures to be generated from a core structure as simple as a single carbon atom or as complex as a polycyclic ring system. Integrated with a rudimentary machine-learning algorithm, the enumerator has the ability to assemble biased virtual libraries enriched in compounds predicted to meet target criteria. The ability to dynamically generate relatively small focused libraries in a recursive manner could reduce the computational time and infrastructure necessary to construct and manage extremely large static libraries. Depending on enumeration conditions, natural product-like structures can be produced with a wide range of heterocyclic and alicyclic ring assemblies. Because natural products represent a proven source of validated structures for identifying and designing new drug candidates, mimicking the structural and topological diversity found in nature with a dynamic set of virtual natural product-like compounds may facilitate the creation of new ideas for novel, biologically relevant lead structures in areas of uncharted chemical space.

Nature, computation and complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Binder, P-M; Ellis, G F R

2016-01-01

The issue of whether the unfolding of events in the world can be considered a computation is explored in this paper. We come to different conclusions for inert and for living systems (‘no’ and ‘qualified yes’, respectively). We suggest that physical computation as we know it exists only as a tool of complex biological systems: us. (paper)

Strain-dependent susceptibility for hypertension in mice resides in the natural killer gene complex

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Taherzadeh, Zhila; VanBavel, Ed; de Vos, Judith; Matlung, Hanke L.; van Montfrans, Gert; Brewster, Lizzy M.; Seghers, Leonard; Quax, Paul H. A.; Bakker, Erik N. T. P.

2010-01-01

Taherzadeh Z, VanBavel E, de Vos J, Matlung HL, van Montfrans G, Brewster LM, Seghers L, Quax PH, Bakker EN. Strain-dependent susceptibility for hypertension in mice resides in the natural killer gene complex. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol 298: H1273-H1282, 2010. First published February 12, 2010;

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

Science.gov (United States)

von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

Thermodynamics of inclusion complex formation of β-cyclodextrin with a variety of surfactants differing in the nature of headgroup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benkő, Mária; Király, Zoltán

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Inclusion complexation of β-cyclodextrins with various surfactants. ► Thermodynamic parameters determined by titration microcalorimetry. ► Stoichiometry of complexation is 1:1. ► The binding constant decreases linearly with increasing temperature. ► Enthalpy–entropy compensation is independent of the nature of the headgroup. - Abstract: The inclusion complexation of β-cyclodextrin with various surfactants, possessing the same alkyl chain length but differing in the hydrophilic headgroup, was investigated by isothermal titration microcalorimetry. Sodium dodecyl sulfate, sodium dodecyl sulfonate, dodecyltrimethylammonium bromide and dodecyl(dimethyl)amine oxide were investigated. The major aim of this study was to elucidate the effects of temperature and the nature of the headgroup on the complex formation. Thermometric titrations were effected between the temperatures (288 and 348) K. The results provided the stoichiometry, the equilibrium constant and the reaction enthalpy of complexation. Changes in Gibbs energy, entropy and van’t Hoff enthalpy were additionally calculated.

Ligand extraction of rare earth elements from aquifer sediments: Implications for rare earth element complexation with organic matter in natural waters

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jianwu; Johannesson, Karen H.

2010-12-01

The ability of organic matter as well as carbonate ions to extract rare earth elements (REEs) from sandy sediments of a Coastal Plain aquifer was investigated for unpurified organic matter from different sources (i.e., Mississippi River natural organic matter, Aldrich humic acid, Nordic aquatic fulvic acid, Suwannee River fulvic acid, and Suwannee River natural organic matter) and for extraction solutions containing weak (i.e., CH 3COO -) or strong (i.e., CO32-) ligands. The experimental results indicate that, in the absence of strong REE complexing ligands in solution, the amount of REEs released from the sand is small and the fractionation pattern of the released REEs appears to be controlled by the surface stability constants for REE sorption with Fe(III) oxides/oxyhydroxides. In the presence of strong solution complexing ligands, however, the amount and the fractionation pattern of the released REEs reflect the strength and variation of the stability constants of the dominant aqueous REE species across the REE series. The varying amount of REEs extracted by the different organic matter employed in the experiments indicates that organic matter from different sources has different complexing capacity for REEs. However, the fractionation pattern of REEs extracted by the various organic matter used in our experiments is remarkable consistent, being independent of the source and the concentration of organic matter used, as well as solution pH. Because natural aquifer sand and unpurified organic matter were used in our experiments, our experimental conditions are more broadly similar to natural systems than many previous laboratory experiments of REE-humic complexation that employed purified humic substances. Our results suggest that the REE loading effect on REE-humic complexation is negligible in natural waters as more abundant metal cations (e.g., Fe, Al) out-compete REEs for strong binding sites on organic matter. More specifically, our results indicate that REE

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its

Ant Queen Egg-Marking Signals: Matching Deceptive Laboratory Simplicity with Natural Complexity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Zweden, Jelle Stijn; Heinze, Jürgen; Boomsma, Jacobus Jan

2009-01-01

Background Experiments under controlled laboratory conditions can produce decisive evidence for testing biological hypotheses, provided they are representative of the more complex natural conditions. However, whether this requirement is fulfilled is seldom tested explicitly. Here we provide a lab....../field comparison to investigate the identity of an egg-marking signal of ant queens. Our study was based on ant workers resolving conflict over male production by destroying each other's eggs, but leaving queen eggs unharmed. For this, the workers need a proximate cue to discriminate between the two egg types...... that this compound by itself is not the natural queen egg-marking pheromone. We subsequently investigated the overall differences of entire chemical profiles of eggs, and found that queen-laid eggs in field colonies are more distinct from worker-laid eggs than in lab colonies, have more variation in profiles...

Blood parasites shape extreme major histocompatibility complex diversity in a migratory passerine.

Science.gov (United States)

Biedrzycka, Aleksandra; Bielański, Wojciech; Ćmiel, Adam; Solarz, Wojciech; Zając, Tadeusz; Migalska, Magdalena; Sebastian, Alvaro; Westerdahl, Helena; Radwan, Jacek

2018-06-01

Pathogens are one of the main forces driving the evolution and maintenance of the highly polymorphic genes of the vertebrate major histocompatibility complex (MHC). Although MHC proteins are crucial in pathogen recognition, it is still poorly understood how pathogen-mediated selection promotes and maintains MHC diversity, and especially so in host species with highly duplicated MHC genes. Sedge warblers (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus) have highly duplicated MHC genes, and using data from high-throughput MHC genotyping, we were able to investigate to what extent avian malaria parasites explain temporal MHC class I supertype fluctuations in a long-term study population. We investigated infection status and infection intensities of two different strains of Haemoproteus, that is avian malaria parasites that are known to have significant fitness consequences in sedge warblers. We found that prevalence of avian malaria in carriers of specific MHC class I supertypes was a significant predictor of their frequency changes between years. This finding suggests that avian malaria infections partly drive the temporal fluctuations of the MHC class I supertypes. Furthermore, we found that individuals with a large number of different supertypes had higher resistance to avian malaria, but there was no evidence for an optimal MHC class I diversity. Thus, the two studied malaria parasite strains appear to select for a high MHC class I supertype diversity. Such selection may explain the maintenance of the extremely high number of MHC class I gene copies in sedge warblers and possibly also in other passerines where avian malaria is a common disease. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting richness effects on ecosystem function in natural communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dangles, Olivier; Crespo-Pérez, Verónica; Andino, Patricio

2011-01-01

rates in the field, although water discharge may also play a role locally. We also examined the relative contribution of the three most abundant shredders on decomposition rates by manipulating shredder richness and community composition in a field experiment. Transgressive overyielding was detected....... Despite the increased complexity of experimental and theoretical studies on the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (B-EF) relationship, a major challenge is to demonstrate whether the observed importance of biodiversity in controlled experimental systems also persists in nature. Due...... to their structural simplicity and their low levels of human impacts, extreme species-poor ecosystems may provide new insights into B-EF relationships in natural systems. We address this issue using shredder invertebrate communities and organic matter decomposition rates in 24 high-altitude (3200-3900 m) Neotropical...

Updated procedure for the safety evaluation of natural flavor complexes used as ingredients in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cohen, Samuel M.; Eisenbrand, Gerhard; Fukushima, Shoji; Gooderham, Nigel J.; Guengerich, F.P.; Hecht, Stephen S.; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.; Davidsen, Jeanne M.; Harman, Christie L.; Taylor, Sean V.

2018-01-01

An effective and thorough approach for the safety evaluation of natural flavor complexes (NFCs) was published in 2005 by the Expert Panel of the Flavor and Extract Manufacturers Association (FEMA). An updated procedure is provided here, which maintains the essential concepts of the use of the

Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

Computational discovery of extremal microstructure families

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Desai; Skouras, Mélina; Zhu, Bo; Matusik, Wojciech

2018-01-01

Modern fabrication techniques, such as additive manufacturing, can be used to create materials with complex custom internal structures. These engineered materials exhibit a much broader range of bulk properties than their base materials and are typically referred to as metamaterials or microstructures. Although metamaterials with extraordinary properties have many applications, designing them is very difficult and is generally done by hand. We propose a computational approach to discover families of microstructures with extremal macroscale properties automatically. Using efficient simulation and sampling techniques, we compute the space of mechanical properties covered by physically realizable microstructures. Our system then clusters microstructures with common topologies into families. Parameterized templates are eventually extracted from families to generate new microstructure designs. We demonstrate these capabilities on the computational design of mechanical metamaterials and present five auxetic microstructure families with extremal elastic material properties. Our study opens the way for the completely automated discovery of extremal microstructures across multiple domains of physics, including applications reliant on thermal, electrical, and magnetic properties. PMID:29376124

Summary of international extreme load design requirements for nuclear power plant facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevenson, J.D.

1978-01-01

An attempt is made to trace the development of extreme load criteria as it applies to earthquakes, extreme wind, high energy system rupture (LOCA), floods and other manmade and natural external hazards, from 1965 until the present, in the leading nuclear power nations throughout the world. (Author)

Genome-reconstruction for eukaryotes from complex natural microbial communities.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Patrick T; Probst, Alexander J; Grigoriev, Igor V; Thomas, Brian C; Banfield, Jillian F

2018-04-01

Microbial eukaryotes are integral components of natural microbial communities, and their inclusion is critical for many ecosystem studies, yet the majority of published metagenome analyses ignore eukaryotes. In order to include eukaryotes in environmental studies, we propose a method to recover eukaryotic genomes from complex metagenomic samples. A key step for genome recovery is separation of eukaryotic and prokaryotic fragments. We developed a k -mer-based strategy, EukRep, for eukaryotic sequence identification and applied it to environmental samples to show that it enables genome recovery, genome completeness evaluation, and prediction of metabolic potential. We used this approach to test the effect of addition of organic carbon on a geyser-associated microbial community and detected a substantial change of the community metabolism, with selection against almost all candidate phyla bacteria and archaea and for eukaryotes. Near complete genomes were reconstructed for three fungi placed within the Eurotiomycetes and an arthropod. While carbon fixation and sulfur oxidation were important functions in the geyser community prior to carbon addition, the organic carbon-impacted community showed enrichment for secreted proteases, secreted lipases, cellulose targeting CAZymes, and methanol oxidation. We demonstrate the broader utility of EukRep by reconstructing and evaluating relatively high-quality fungal, protist, and rotifer genomes from complex environmental samples. This approach opens the way for cultivation-independent analyses of whole microbial communities. © 2018 West et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Human genetics studies in areas of high natural radiation. IV. Research in radioactive areas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freire-Maia, A [Faculdade de Ciencias Medicas e Biologicas de Botucatu (Brazil). Departamento de Genetica

1974-01-01

A review is made on researches performed in areas with high levels of natural radioactivity. Some considerations are made on the importance and difficulties involved in projects of this kind. Although there is no doubt that natural radioactivity is one of the causes of the so-called spontaneous mutations, the practical demonstration of this assertion is extremely complex. Projects trying to correlate high levels of natural radioactivity with the occurrence of cancer (in general, or specific), leukemia, congenital malformations (in general or specific), neuro-vegetative disturbs, sex ratio, mortality, and physical development, as well as other characteristics. Some researches with animals are also mentioned, and references are given for plant studies. A critical analysis is made of some works relating to human populations.

Human genetics studies in areas of high natural radiation.IV. Research in radioactive areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freire-Maia, A.

1974-01-01

A review is made on researches performed in areas with high levels of natural radioactivity. Some considerations are made on the importance and difficulties involved in projects of this kind. Although there is no doubt that natural radioactivity is one of the causes of the so-called spontaneous mutations, the practical demonstration of this assertion is extremely complex. Projects trying to correlate high levels of natural radioactivity with the occurrence of cancer (in general, or specific), leukemia, congenital malformations (in general or specific), neuro-vegetative disturbs, sex ratio, mortality, and physical development, as well as other characteristics. Some researches with animals are also mentioned, and references are given for plant studies. A critical analysis is made of some works relating to human populations [pt

Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

2017-04-01

Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

Generalised extreme value distributions provide a natural hypothesis for the shape of seed mass distributions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Will Edwards

Full Text Available Among co-occurring species, values for functionally important plant traits span orders of magnitude, are uni-modal, and generally positively skewed. Such data are usually log-transformed "for normality" but no convincing mechanistic explanation for a log-normal expectation exists. Here we propose a hypothesis for the distribution of seed masses based on generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs, a class of probability distributions used in climatology to characterise the impact of event magnitudes and frequencies; events that impose strong directional selection on biological traits. In tests involving datasets from 34 locations across the globe, GEVs described log10 seed mass distributions as well or better than conventional normalising statistics in 79% of cases, and revealed a systematic tendency for an overabundance of small seed sizes associated with low latitudes. GEVs characterise disturbance events experienced in a location to which individual species' life histories could respond, providing a natural, biological explanation for trait expression that is lacking from all previous hypotheses attempting to describe trait distributions in multispecies assemblages. We suggest that GEVs could provide a mechanistic explanation for plant trait distributions and potentially link biology and climatology under a single paradigm.

The attitudes of neonatal nurses towards extremely preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, Katie; Marlow, Neil; Edgley, Alison; Porock, Davina

2012-08-01

The paper is a report of a study of the attitudes of neonatal nurses towards extremely preterm infants. Alongside advancing survival at extremely preterm gestational ages, ethical debates concerning the provision of invasive care have proliferated in light of the high morbidity. Despite nurses being the healthcare professionals who work closest with the infant and their family, their potential influence is usually ignored when determining how parents come to decisions about future care for their extremely premature infant. A Q methodology was employed to explore the attitudes of neonatal nurses towards caring for extremely preterm infants. Data were collected between 2007 and 2008 and analysed using PQMethod and Card Content Analysis. Thirty-six nurses from six neonatal units in the United Kingdom participated. Although there was consensus around the professional role of the nurse, when faced with the complexities of neonatal nursing three distinguishing factors emerged: the importance of parental choice in decision-making, the belief that technology should be used to assess response to treatment, and the belief that healthcare professionals should undertake difficult decisions. Neonatal nurses report unexpected difficulties in upholding their professionally defined role through highly complex and ever varied decision-making processes. Recognition of individual attitudes to the care of extremely preterm infants and the role of the family in the face of difficult decisions should facilitate more open communication between the nurse and the parents and improve the experience of both the nurse and the family during these emotional situations. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Wetlands and Flood Mitigation in Ontario: Natural adaptation to extreme rainfall

OpenAIRE

Marchildon, Mason

2017-01-01

Abstract Wetlands are often recognized for their flood control value, but little research exists specific to Ontario, where extreme weather causing flooding poses ever-greater threats to urban areas. Ducks Unlimited Canada has undertaken new research to better understand the role of wetlands in storing and attenuating flood flows in an urban/rural watershed. The second phase of this research, reported here, employs advanced hydrologic modelling to address the questions of where and how we...

Lichensphere: a protected natural microhabitat of the non-lichenised fungal communities living in extreme environments of Antarctica.

Science.gov (United States)

Santiago, Iara F; Soares, Marco Aurélio; Rosa, Carlos A; Rosa, Luiz H

2015-11-01

We surveyed the diversity, distribution and ecology of non-lichenised fungal communities associated with the Antarctic lichens Usnea antarctica and Usnea aurantiaco-atra across Antarctica. The phylogenetic study of the 438 fungi isolates identified 74 taxa from 21 genera of Ascomycota, Basidiomycota and Zygomycota. The most abundant taxa were Pseudogymnoascus sp., Thelebolus sp., Antarctomyces psychrotrophicus and Cryptococcus victoriae, which are considered endemic and/or highly adapted to Antarctica. Thirty-five fungi may represent new and/or endemic species. The fungal communities displayed high diversity, richness and dominance indices; however, the similarity among the communities was variable. After discovering rich and diverse fungal communities composed of symbionts, decomposers, parasites and endemic and cold-adapted cosmopolitan taxa, we introduced the term "lichensphere". We hypothesised that the lichensphere may represent a protected natural microhabitat with favourable conditions able to help non-lichenised fungi and other Antarctic life forms survive and disperse in the extreme environments of Antarctica.

To the limit of extreme malnutrition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frølich, Jacob; Buskbjerg, Camilla Viola; Støving, Rene K

2016-01-01

Extreme malnutrition with body mass index (BMI) as low as 10 kg/m(2) is not uncommon in anorexia nervosa, with survival enabled through complex metabolic adaptations. In contrast, outcomes from hunger strikes and famines are usually fatal after weight loss to about 40% below expected body weight...... malnutrition has not previously been reported. The present case emphasizes the importance of adherence...

Insertion sequences enrichment in extreme Red sea brine pool vent

KAUST Repository

Elbehery, Ali H. A.

2016-12-03

Mobile genetic elements are major agents of genome diversification and evolution. Limited studies addressed their characteristics, including abundance, and role in extreme habitats. One of the rare natural habitats exposed to multiple-extreme conditions, including high temperature, salinity and concentration of heavy metals, are the Red Sea brine pools. We assessed the abundance and distribution of different mobile genetic elements in four Red Sea brine pools including the world’s largest known multiple-extreme deep-sea environment, the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. We report a gradient in the abundance of mobile genetic elements, dramatically increasing in the harshest environment of the pool. Additionally, we identified a strong association between the abundance of insertion sequences and extreme conditions, being highest in the harshest and deepest layer of the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. Our comparative analyses of mobile genetic elements in secluded, extreme and relatively non-extreme environments, suggest that insertion sequences predominantly contribute to polyextremophiles genome plasticity.

A pragmatic approach to including complex natural modes of vibration in aeroelastic analysis

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Van Zyl, Lourens H

2015-09-01

Full Text Available complex natural modes of vibration in aeroelastic analysis Louw van Zyl International Aerospace Symposium of South Africa 14 to 16 September, 2015 Stellenbosch, South Africa Slide 2 © CSIR 2006 www.csir.co.za Problem statement..., the square of the angular frequencies in radians per second) [ ]{ } [ ]{ } [ ]{ } { }fxKxCxM =++ &&& [ ]{ } [ ]{ } 0=+ xKxMs2 Slide 4 © CSIR 2006 www.csir.co.za Structural Dynamics (continued) • The corresponding eigenvectors are real...

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

Impact of delayed information in sub-second complex systems

Science.gov (United States)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Zheng, Minzhang; Johnson Restrepo, D. Dylan; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

What happens when you slow down the delivery of information in large-scale complex systems that operate faster than the blink of an eye? This question just adopted immediate commercial, legal and political importance following U.S. regulators' decision to allow an intentional 350 microsecond delay to be added in the ultrafast network of financial exchanges. However there is still no scientific understanding available to policymakers of the potential system-wide impact of such delays. Here we take a first step in addressing this question using a minimal model of a population of competing, heterogeneous, adaptive agents which has previously been shown to produce similar statistical features to real markets. We find that while certain extreme system-level behaviors can be prevented by such delays, the duration of others is increased. This leads to a highly non-trivial relationship between delays and system-wide instabilities which warrants deeper empirical investigation. The generic nature of our model suggests there should be a fairly wide class of complex systems where such delay-driven extreme behaviors can arise, e.g. sub-second delays in brain function possibly impacting individuals' behavior, and sub-second delays in navigational systems potentially impacting the safety of driverless vehicles.

Impact of delayed information in sub-second complex systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro D. Manrique

Full Text Available What happens when you slow down the delivery of information in large-scale complex systems that operate faster than the blink of an eye? This question just adopted immediate commercial, legal and political importance following U.S. regulators’ decision to allow an intentional 350 microsecond delay to be added in the ultrafast network of financial exchanges. However there is still no scientific understanding available to policymakers of the potential system-wide impact of such delays. Here we take a first step in addressing this question using a minimal model of a population of competing, heterogeneous, adaptive agents which has previously been shown to produce similar statistical features to real markets. We find that while certain extreme system-level behaviors can be prevented by such delays, the duration of others is increased. This leads to a highly non-trivial relationship between delays and system-wide instabilities which warrants deeper empirical investigation. The generic nature of our model suggests there should be a fairly wide class of complex systems where such delay-driven extreme behaviors can arise, e.g. sub-second delays in brain function possibly impacting individuals’ behavior, and sub-second delays in navigational systems potentially impacting the safety of driverless vehicles. Keywords: Ultra-fast networks, Temporal perturbation, Competition, Modeling

Forecasting of flowrate under rolling motion flow instability condition based on on-line sequential extreme learning machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Hanying; Gao Puzhen; Tan Sichao; Tang Jiguo; Hou Xiaofan; Xu Huiqiang; Wu Xiangcheng

2015-01-01

The coupling of multiple thermal-hydraulic parameters can result in complex flow instability in natural circulation system under rolling motion. A real-time thermal-hydraulic condition prediction is helpful to the operation of systems in such condition. A single hidden layer feedforward neural networks algorithm named extreme learning machine (ELM) is considered as suitable method for this application because of its extremely fast training time, good accuracy and simplicity. However, traditional ELM assumes that all the training data are ready before the training process, while the training data is received sequentially in practical forecasting of flowrate. Therefore, this paper proposes a forecasting method for flowrate under rolling motion based on on-line sequential ELM (OS-ELM), which can learn the data one by one or chunk-by-chunk. The experiment results show that the OS-ELM method can achieve a better forecasting performance than basic ELM method and still keep the advantage of fast training and simplicity. (author)

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

Science.gov (United States)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

On causality of extreme events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Zanin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

Theoretical study of the binding nature of glassy carbon with nickel(II) phthalocyanine complexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortez, Luis; Berrios, Cristhian; Yanez, Mauricio; Cardenas-Jiron, Gloria I.

2009-01-01

A theoretical study at the semiempirical RHF/PM3(tm) level (tm: transition metal) of the binding nature between a glassy carbon (GC) cluster and a nickel(II) complex (nickel(II) phthalocyanine NiPc, nickel(II) tetrasulphophthalocyanine NiTSPc) was performed. Three types of interactions for GC...NiPc (NiTSPc) were studied: (a) through an oxo (O) bridge, (b) through an hydroxo (OH) bridge, and (c) non-bridge. One layer (NiPc, NiTSPc) and two layers (NiPc...NiPc) of complex were considered. The binding energy calculated showed that in both cases NiPc and NiTSPc, the oxo structures are more stable than the hydroxo ones, and than the non-bridge systems. Charge analysis (NAO) predicted that GC gained more electrons in an oxo structure than in the analogues hydroxo. The theoretical results showed an agreement with the experimental data available, an oxo binding between GC and a nickel complex (NiPc, NiTSPc) in aqueous alkaline solutions is formed.

Theoretical study of the binding nature of glassy carbon with nickel(II) phthalocyanine complexes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cortez, Luis [Laboratorio de Quimica Teorica, Facultad de Quimica y Biologia, Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH), Casilla 40, Correo 33, Santiago (Chile); Berrios, Cristhian [Laboratorio de Electrocatalisis, Facultad de Quimica y Biologia, Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH), Casilla 40, Correo 33, Santiago (Chile); Yanez, Mauricio [Laboratorio de Recursos Renovables, Centro de Biotecnologia, Universidad de Concepcion, Casilla-160 C, Concepcion (Chile); Cardenas-Jiron, Gloria I., E-mail: gloria.cardenas@usach.cl [Laboratorio de Quimica Teorica, Facultad de Quimica y Biologia, Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH), Casilla 40, Correo 33, Santiago (Chile)

2009-11-26

A theoretical study at the semiempirical RHF/PM3(tm) level (tm: transition metal) of the binding nature between a glassy carbon (GC) cluster and a nickel(II) complex (nickel(II) phthalocyanine NiPc, nickel(II) tetrasulphophthalocyanine NiTSPc) was performed. Three types of interactions for GC...NiPc (NiTSPc) were studied: (a) through an oxo (O) bridge, (b) through an hydroxo (OH) bridge, and (c) non-bridge. One layer (NiPc, NiTSPc) and two layers (NiPc...NiPc) of complex were considered. The binding energy calculated showed that in both cases NiPc and NiTSPc, the oxo structures are more stable than the hydroxo ones, and than the non-bridge systems. Charge analysis (NAO) predicted that GC gained more electrons in an oxo structure than in the analogues hydroxo. The theoretical results showed an agreement with the experimental data available, an oxo binding between GC and a nickel complex (NiPc, NiTSPc) in aqueous alkaline solutions is formed.

Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen CJ; Lantinga, Egbert A

2012-01-01

Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2015-01-01

A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which...... the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

The Lutzomyia longipalpis complex: a brief natural history of aggregation-sex pheromone communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegel, Carolina N; Dias, Denise B Dos Santos; Araki, Alejandra S; Hamilton, James G C; Brazil, Reginaldo P; Jones, Théresa M

2016-11-14

In this paper we review the natural history of pheromone communication and the current diversity of aggregation-sex pheromones in the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis. This species complex is the main vector of Leishmania infantum, the agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas. The identification of variation in pheromone chemotypes combined with molecular and sound analyses have all contributed to our understanding of the extent of divergence among cryptic members of this complex. The importance of chemical signals as pre-mating barriers and drivers of speciation is discussed. Moreover, the importance of aggregation-sex pheromones as sexually selected signals is highlighted with evidence from the literature suggesting their potential role in species and mate recognition as well as mate assessment. The distinct evolutionary forces possibly involved are briefly reviewed and discussed in the context of this intriguing insect.

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forkel, Matthias; Beer, Christian; Thonicke, Kirsten; Cramer, Wolfgang; Bartalev, Sergey; Schmullius, Christiane

2012-01-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires can degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amounts of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope and dry air conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. Here we identify surface moisture as an additional important driving factor for the evolution of extreme fire events in the Baikal region. An area of 127 000 km 2 burned in this region in 2003, a large part of it in regions underlain by permafrost. Analyses of satellite data for 2002–2009 indicate that previous-summer surface moisture is a better predictor for burned area than precipitation anomalies or fire weather indices for larch forests with continuous permafrost. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil, and how coupled mechanisms can lead to extreme events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, vegetation functioning, and fire activity in Earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century. (letter)

Neutral Theory: From Complex Population History to Natural Selection and Sociocultural Phenomena in Human Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Austerlitz, Frédéric; Heyer, Evelyne

2018-06-01

Here, we present a synthetic view on how Kimura's Neutral theory has helped us gaining insight on the different evolutionary forces that shape human evolution. We put this perspective in the frame of recent emerging challenges: the use of whole genome data for reconstructing population histories, natural selection on complex polygenic traits, and integrating cultural processes in human evolution.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Phenology: Drought-Induced Changes in Productivity of Mixed Woody-Herbaceous Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, P. M.; Breshears, D. D.; White, A. B.

2006-12-01

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "greenup" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody- herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional scale piñon pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous greenup following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.

Synergistic microbial consortium for bioenergy generation from complex natural energy sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Victor Bochuan; Yam, Joey Kuok Hoong; Chua, Song-Lin; Zhang, Qichun; Cao, Bin; Chye, Joachim Loo Say; Yang, Liang

2014-01-01

Microbial species have evolved diverse mechanisms for utilization of complex carbon sources. Proper combination of targeted species can affect bioenergy production from natural waste products. Here, we established a stable microbial consortium with Escherichia coli and Shewanella oneidensis in microbial fuel cells (MFCs) to produce bioenergy from an abundant natural energy source, in the form of the sarcocarp harvested from coconuts. This component is mostly discarded as waste. However, through its usage as a feedstock for MFCs to produce useful energy in this study, the sarcocarp can be utilized meaningfully. The monospecies S. oneidensis system was able to generate bioenergy in a short experimental time frame while the monospecies E. coli system generated significantly less bioenergy. A combination of E. coli and S. oneidensis in the ratio of 1:9 (v:v) significantly enhanced the experimental time frame and magnitude of bioenergy generation. The synergistic effect is suggested to arise from E. coli and S. oneidensis utilizing different nutrients as electron donors and effect of flavins secreted by S. oneidensis. Confocal images confirmed the presence of biofilms and point towards their importance in generating bioenergy in MFCs.

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Associations of Volatile Compounds with Sensory Aroma and Flavor: The Complex Nature of Flavor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edgar Chambers IV

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Attempts to relate sensory analysis data to specific chemicals such as volatile compounds have been frequent. Often these associations are difficult to interpret or are weak in nature. Although some difficulties may relate to the methods used, the difficulties also result from the complex nature of flavor. For example, there are multiple volatiles responsible for a flavor sensation, combinations of volatiles yield different flavors than those expected from individual compounds, and the differences in perception of volatiles in different matrices. This review identifies some of the reasons sensory analysis and instrumental measurements result in poor associations and suggests issues that need to be addressed in future research for better understanding of the relationships of flavor/aroma phenomena and chemical composition.

Asynchronous schemes for CFD at extreme scales

Science.gov (United States)

Konduri, Aditya; Donzis, Diego

2013-11-01

Recent advances in computing hardware and software have made simulations an indispensable research tool in understanding fluid flow phenomena in complex conditions at great detail. Due to the nonlinear nature of the governing NS equations, simulations of high Re turbulent flows are computationally very expensive and demand for extreme levels of parallelism. Current large simulations are being done on hundreds of thousands of processing elements (PEs). Benchmarks from these simulations show that communication between PEs take a substantial amount of time, overwhelming the compute time, resulting in substantial waste in compute cycles as PEs remain idle. We investigate a novel approach based on widely used finite-difference schemes in which computations are carried out asynchronously, i.e. synchronization of data among PEs is not enforced and computations proceed regardless of the status of messages. This drastically reduces PE idle time and results in much larger computation rates. We show that while these schemes remain stable, their accuracy is significantly affected. We present new schemes that maintain accuracy under asynchronous conditions and provide a viable path towards exascale computing. Performance of these schemes will be shown for simple models like Burgers' equation.

Natural disease course and genotype-phenotype correlations in Complex I deficiency caused by nuclear gene defects: what we learned from 130 cases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koene, S.; Rodenburg, R.J.; van der Knaap, M.S.; Willemsen, M.A.A.P.; Sperl, W.; Laugel, V.; Ostergaard, E.; Tarnopolsky, M.; Martin, M.A.; Nesbitt, V.; Fletcher, J.; Edvardson, S.; Procaccio, V.; Slama, A.; van den Heuvel, L.P.W.J.; Smeitink, J.A.M.

2012-01-01

Mitochondrial complex I is the largest multi-protein enzyme complex of the oxidative phosphorylation system. Seven subunits of this complex are encoded by the mitochondrial and the remainder by the nuclear genome. We review the natural disease course and signs and symptoms of 130 patients (four new

Natural disease course and genotype-phenotype correlations in Complex I deficiency caused by nuclear gene defects: what we learned from 130 cases.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koene, S.; Rodenburg, R.J.T.; Knaap, M.S. van der; Willemsen, M.A.A.P.; Sperl, W.; Laugel, V.; Ostergaard, E.; Tarnopolsky, M.; Martin, M.A.; Nesbitt, V.; Fletcher, J.; Edvardson, S.; Procaccio, V.; Slama, A.; Heuvel, L.P.W.J. van den; Smeitink, J.A.M.

2012-01-01

Mitochondrial complex I is the largest multi-protein enzyme complex of the oxidative phosphorylation system. Seven subunits of this complex are encoded by the mitochondrial and the remainder by the nuclear genome. We review the natural disease course and signs and symptoms of 130 patients (four new

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

2016-12-01

Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dinamics of radiating conditions in the natural complexes of a near zone of the Chernobyl NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondar', Yu.I.; Kalinichenko, S.A.; Marchenko, Yu.D.

2010-01-01

The analysis of radiating conditions in exclusion zone of Chernobyl NPP is resulted. Annual and seasonal fluctuations of capacity of a dose, and also change of parameters of vertical migration Cs 137, Sr 90, Am 241 in a vertical profile of soils of various territorially-natural complexes are considered. (authors)

Insertion sequences enrichment in extreme Red sea brine pool vent

KAUST Repository

Elbehery, Ali H. A.; Aziz, Ramy K.; Siam, Rania

2016-01-01

Mobile genetic elements are major agents of genome diversification and evolution. Limited studies addressed their characteristics, including abundance, and role in extreme habitats. One of the rare natural habitats exposed to multiple

Wave-induced extreme water levels in the Puerto Morelos fringing reef lagoon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Torres-Freyermuth

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Wave-induced extreme water levels in the Puerto Morelos fringing reef lagoon are investigated by means of a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic wave model (SWASH. This model solves the nonlinear shallow water equations including non-hydrostatic pressure. The one-dimensional version of the model is implemented in order to investigate wave transformation in fringing reefs. Firstly, the numerical model is validated with (i laboratory experiments conducted on a physical model (Demirbilek et al., 2007and (ii field observations (Coronado et al., 2007. Numerical results show good agreement with both experimental and field data. The comparison against the physical model results, for energetic wave conditions, indicates that high- and low-frequency wave transformation is well reproduced. Moreover, extreme water-level conditions measured during the passage of Hurricane Ivan in Puerto Morelos are also estimated by the numerical tool. Subsequently, the model is implemented at different along-reef locations in Puerto Morelos. Extreme water levels, wave-induced setup, and infragravity wave energy are estimated inside the reef lagoon for different storm wave conditions (H_s >2 m. The numerical results revealed a strong correlation between the offshore sea-swell wave energy and the setup. In contrast, infragravity waves are shown to be the result of a more complex pattern which heavily relies on the reef geometry. Indeed, the southern end of the reef lagoon provides evidence of resonance excitation, suggesting that the reef barrier may act as either a natural flood protection morphological feature, or as an inundation hazard enhancer depending on the incident wave conditions.

Extreme pollution of soils by emissions of the copper-nickel industrial complex in the Kola Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Kashulina, G. M.

2017-07-01

The distribution of the total Ni, Cu, Co, Cd, Pb, and Zn contents was studied in the soil profiles of six catenas in the zone subjected to emissions of the copper-nickel industrial complex, which is the largest source of SO2 and heavy metals in northern Europe. The results show that, at present, the concentrations of Ni and Cu in the upper organic soil horizons in the impact zone reach extreme levels of 9000 and 6000 mg/kg, respectively. Under conditions of the long-term intense multi-element industrial emissions, the modern levels of the accumulation of polluting substances in soils greatly depend on the indirect factors, such as the degree of the technogenic degradation of soils with the loss of a significant part of soil organic matter, the reaching of threshold saturation of the topsoil with polluting metals, and competitive relationships between chemical elements. The state of the ecosystems in the impact zone varied greatly and did not always agree with the contents of the main metals-pollutants in the soils. The moisture conditions determined by the landscape position affected significantly the resistance of the ecosystems to emissions.

Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

2013-01-01

The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

Public health implications of complex emergencies and natural disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Culver, Amanda; Rochat, Roger; Cookson, Susan T

2017-01-01

During the last decade, conflict or natural disasters have displaced unprecedented numbers of persons. This leads to conditions prone to outbreaks that imperil the health of displaced persons and threaten global health security. Past literature has minimally examined the association of communicable disease outbreaks with complex emergencies (CEs) and natural disasters (NDs). To examine this association, we identified CEs and NDs using publicly available datasets from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters and United Nations Flash and Consolidated Appeals archive for 2005-2014. We identified outbreaks from World Health Organization archives. We compared findings to identify overlap of outbreaks, including their types (whether or not of a vaccine-preventable disease), and emergency event types (CE, ND, or Both) by country and year using descriptive statistics and measure of association. There were 167 CEs, 912 NDs, 118 events linked to 'Both' types of emergencies, and 384 outbreaks. Of CEs, 43% were associated with an outbreak; 24% NDs were associated with an outbreak; and 36% of 'Both' types of emergencies were associated with an outbreak. Africa was disproportionately affected, where 67% of total CEs, 67% of 'Both' events (CE and ND), and 46% of all outbreaks occurred for the study period. The odds ratio of a vaccine-preventable outbreak occurring in a CE versus an ND was 4.14 (95% confidence limits 1.9, 9.4). CEs had greater odds of being associated with outbreaks compared with NDs. Moreover, CEs had high odds of a vaccine-preventable disease causing that outbreak. Focusing on better vaccine coverage could reduce CE-associated morbidity and mortality by preventing outbreaks from spreading.

The relative contribution of natural zinc complexing agents and ZnSO4 to growth and zinc nutrition of maize

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, M.; Prasad, B.

1989-01-01

Relative evaluation of different natural zinc-complexes indicated that application of Zn-FA 2 (PM), Zn-FA 3 (Comp), Zn-FA 1 (BGS), Zn-FA 5 (PR), Zn-FA 4 (SS) and ZnSO 4 significantly enhanced the drymatter yield and zinc uptake by maize. The natural zinc-complexes in particular increased, to a greater extent, the uptake of both native and applied sources than that observed with ZnSO 4 as zinc carrier. Significant positive relationship between self-diffusion coefficient of Zn and drymatter yield and uptake of zinc by maize suggested that diffusion is responsible for the supply of zinc from ambient soil matrix to plant roots. (author). 12 refs., 5 tabs

Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

2009-01-01

Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

Using an Insect Mushroom Body Circuit to Encode Route Memory in Complex Natural Environments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Ardin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Ants, like many other animals, use visual memory to follow extended routes through complex environments, but it is unknown how their small brains implement this capability. The mushroom body neuropils have been identified as a crucial memory circuit in the insect brain, but their function has mostly been explored for simple olfactory association tasks. We show that a spiking neural model of this circuit originally developed to describe fruitfly (Drosophila melanogaster olfactory association, can also account for the ability of desert ants (Cataglyphis velox to rapidly learn visual routes through complex natural environments. We further demonstrate that abstracting the key computational principles of this circuit, which include one-shot learning of sparse codes, enables the theoretical storage capacity of the ant mushroom body to be estimated at hundreds of independent images.

Two-Dimensional Extreme Learning Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Jia

2015-01-01

(BP networks. However, like many other methods, ELM is originally proposed to handle vector pattern while nonvector patterns in real applications need to be explored, such as image data. We propose the two-dimensional extreme learning machine (2DELM based on the very natural idea to deal with matrix data directly. Unlike original ELM which handles vectors, 2DELM take the matrices as input features without vectorization. Empirical studies on several real image datasets show the efficiency and effectiveness of the algorithm.

Normalization Strategies for Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Social Media Responses during Extreme Events: A Case Study based on Analysis of Four Extreme Events using Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Ajayakumar

2017-10-01

Full Text Available With social media becoming increasingly location-based, there has been a greater push from researchers across various domains including social science, public health, and disaster management, to tap in the spatial, temporal, and textual data available from these sources to analyze public response during extreme events such as an epidemic outbreak or a natural disaster. Studies based on demographics and other socio-economic factors suggests that social media data could be highly skewed based on the variations of population density with respect to place. To capture the spatio-temporal variations in public response during extreme events we have developed the Socio-Environmental Data Explorer (SEDE. SEDE collects and integrates social media, news and environmental data to support exploration and assessment of public response to extreme events. For this study, using SEDE, we conduct spatio-temporal social media response analysis on four major extreme events in the United States including the “North American storm complex” in December 2015, the “snowstorm Jonas” in January 2016, the “West Virginia floods” in June 2016, and the “Hurricane Matthew” in October 2016. Analysis is conducted on geo-tagged social media data from Twitter and warnings from the storm events database provided by National Centers For Environmental Information (NCEI for analysis. Results demonstrate that, to support complex social media analyses, spatial and population-based normalization and filtering is necessary. The implications of these results suggests that, while developing software solutions to support analysis of non-conventional data sources such as social media, it is quintessential to identify the inherent biases associated with the data sources, and adapt techniques and enhance capabilities to mitigate the bias. The normalization strategies that we have developed and incorporated to SEDE will be helpful in reducing the population bias associated with

Sorption and leaching properties of the composites and humic complexes of natural microporous materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masasek, F.

1998-01-01

This contribution deals with scientific basis and engineering practices of natural microporous materials (NMM) which are projected for a millennia horizon of the environmental protection. Microcrystalline structure of inorganic microporous sorbents is discussed. Artificial formation composites and both inorganic and organic complexes of NMM is applied for> (1) field barriers, fills or supporting structures, (2) reagents and organic coating supports, (3) granules, pellets and column packings, (4) additives to cementitious fixation matrices, and (4) glass formulations

Hierarchical adaptive nanostructured PVD coatings for extreme tribological applications: the quest for nonequilibrium states and emergent behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

German S Fox-Rabinovich, Kenji Yamamoto, Ben D Beake, Iosif S Gershman, Anatoly I Kovalev, Stephen C Veldhuis, Myram H Aguirre, Goulnara Dosbaeva and Jose L Endrino

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Adaptive wear-resistant coatings produced by physical vapor deposition (PVD are a relatively new generation of coatings which are attracting attention in the development of nanostructured materials for extreme tribological applications. An excellent example of such extreme operating conditions is high performance machining of hard-to-cut materials. The adaptive characteristics of such coatings develop fully during interaction with the severe environment. Modern adaptive coatings could be regarded as hierarchical surface-engineered nanostructural materials. They exhibit dynamic hierarchy on two major structural scales: (a nanoscale surface layers of protective tribofilms generated during friction and (b an underlying nano/microscaled layer. The tribofilms are responsible for some critical nanoscale effects that strongly impact the wear resistance of adaptive coatings. A new direction in nanomaterial research is discussed: compositional and microstructural optimization of the dynamically regenerating nanoscaled tribofilms on the surface of the adaptive coatings during friction. In this review we demonstrate the correlation between the microstructure, physical, chemical and micromechanical properties of hard coatings in their dynamic interaction (adaptation with environment and the involvement of complex natural processes associated with self-organization during friction. Major physical, chemical and mechanical characteristics of the adaptive coating, which play a significant role in its operating properties, such as enhanced mass transfer, and the ability of the layer to provide dissipation and accumulation of frictional energy during operation are presented as well. Strategies for adaptive nanostructural coating design that enhance beneficial natural processes are outlined. The coatings exhibit emergent behavior during operation when their improved features work as a whole. In this way, as higher-ordered systems, they achieve multifunctionality

Hierarchical adaptive nanostructured PVD coatings for extreme tribological applications: the quest for nonequilibrium states and emergent behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox-Rabinovich, German S; Yamamoto, Kenji; Beake, Ben D; Gershman, Iosif S; Kovalev, Anatoly I; Veldhuis, Stephen C; Aguirre, Myriam H; Dosbaeva, Goulnara; Endrino, Jose L

2012-08-01

Adaptive wear-resistant coatings produced by physical vapor deposition (PVD) are a relatively new generation of coatings which are attracting attention in the development of nanostructured materials for extreme tribological applications. An excellent example of such extreme operating conditions is high performance machining of hard-to-cut materials. The adaptive characteristics of such coatings develop fully during interaction with the severe environment. Modern adaptive coatings could be regarded as hierarchical surface-engineered nanostructural materials. They exhibit dynamic hierarchy on two major structural scales: (a) nanoscale surface layers of protective tribofilms generated during friction and (b) an underlying nano/microscaled layer. The tribofilms are responsible for some critical nanoscale effects that strongly impact the wear resistance of adaptive coatings. A new direction in nanomaterial research is discussed: compositional and microstructural optimization of the dynamically regenerating nanoscaled tribofilms on the surface of the adaptive coatings during friction. In this review we demonstrate the correlation between the microstructure, physical, chemical and micromechanical properties of hard coatings in their dynamic interaction (adaptation) with environment and the involvement of complex natural processes associated with self-organization during friction. Major physical, chemical and mechanical characteristics of the adaptive coating, which play a significant role in its operating properties, such as enhanced mass transfer, and the ability of the layer to provide dissipation and accumulation of frictional energy during operation are presented as well. Strategies for adaptive nanostructural coating design that enhance beneficial natural processes are outlined. The coatings exhibit emergent behavior during operation when their improved features work as a whole. In this way, as higher-ordered systems, they achieve multifunctionality and high wear

Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Dao

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 2. Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir V. Kozoderov

1998-01-01

Full Text Available Developing the general statements of the proposed global change theory, outlined in Part 1 of the publication, Kolmogorov's probability space is used to study properties of information measures (unconditional, joint and conditional entropies, information divergence, mutual information, etc.. Sets of elementary events, the specified algebra of their sub-sets and probability measures for the algebra are composite parts of the space. The information measures are analyzed using the mathematical expectance operator and the adequacy between an additive function of sets and their equivalents in the form of the measures. As a result, explanations are given to multispectral satellite imagery visualization procedures using Markov's chains of random variables represented by pixels of the imagery. The proposed formalism of the information measures application enables to describe the natural targets complexity by syntactically governing probabilities. Asserted as that of signal/noise ratios finding for anomalies of natural processes, the predictability problem is solved by analyses of temporal data sets of related measurements for key regions and their background within contextually coherent structures of natural targets and between particular boundaries of the structures.

Extremely low frequencies. Health effects of extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields. Opinion of the Afsset. Collective expertise report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bounouh, Alexandre; Brugere, Henri; Clavel, Jacqueline; Febvre, Pascal; Lagroye, Isabelle; Vecchia, Paolo; Dore, Jean-Francois; Anfosso-Ledee, Fabienne; Berengier, Michel; Cesarini, Jean-Pierre; Cohen, Jean-Claude; Planton, Serge; Courant, Daniel; Tardif, Francois; Couturier, Frederic; Debouzy, Jean-Claude; El Khatib, Aicha; Flahaut, Emmanuel; Gaffet, Eric; Hours, Martine; Lambert, Jacques; Vallet, Michel; Job, Agnes; Labeyrie, Antoine; Laurier, Dominique; Le Bihan, Olivier; Lepoutre, Philippe; Marchal, Didier; Moch, Annie; Pirard, Philipe; Rumeau, Michel; De Seze, Rene; Attia, Dina; Merckel, Olivier; Fite, Johanna; Guichard, Alexandra; Saihi, Myriam; Guitton, Sophie; Saddoki, Sophia

2010-03-01

This report aims at proposing a synthesis of works of international expertise on the health effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields, at performing a methodological analysis of the 'Expers' study (a study on the exposure of individuals), at performing a methodological analysis of a study performed by the Criirem in the western part of France, at assessing the contribution of different equipment and situations to the exposure of population to extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic fields, at making recommendations and proposals for a better assessment of the exposure level, and at proposing topics of investigation and research to improve knowledge on these issues. The report recalls the context, scope and modalities of the study, gives an overview of generalities on electromagnetic fields (nature, physical values, electromagnetic spectrum, artificial and natural electromagnetic field sources, exposure threshold values and regulatory context), addresses the assessment of exposure (notion of exposure, exposure assessment methods, analysis of available data, analysis of recent or current studies), gives an overview of biological and health effects of these electromagnetic fields (methodological aspects, interaction between fields and biological tissues, synthesis of the international expertise on health impacts). Recommendations are formulated

Extremal dependencies and rank correlations in power law networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Volkovich, Y.; Litvak, Nelli; Zwart, B.; Jie, Z.

2009-01-01

We analyze dependencies in complex networks characterized by power laws (Web sample, Wikipedia sample and a preferential attachment graph) using statistical techniques from the extreme value theory and the theory of multivariate regular variation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

Science.gov (United States)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

Division of labour and the evolution of extreme specialization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Guy A; West, Stuart A

2018-05-28

Division of labour is a common feature of social groups, from biofilms to complex animal societies. However, we lack a theoretical framework that can explain why division of labour has evolved on certain branches of the tree of life but not others. Here, we model the division of labour over a cooperative behaviour, considering both when it should evolve and the extent to which the different types should become specialized. We found that: (1) division of labour is usually-but not always-favoured by high efficiency benefits to specialization and low within-group conflict; and (2) natural selection favours extreme specialization, where some individuals are completely dependent on the helping behaviour of others. We make a number of predictions, several of which are supported by the existing empirical data, from microbes and animals, while others suggest novel directions for empirical work. More generally, we show how division of labour can lead to mutual dependence between different individuals and hence drive major evolutionary transitions, such as those to multicellularity and eusociality.

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Zachary H.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wilson, Juliette T.

2013-01-01

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Motsholapheko, M. R.; Kgathi, D. L.; Vanderpost, C.

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included

Holographic complexity and spacetime singularities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbón, José L.F. [Instituto de Física Teórica IFT UAM/CSIC,C/ Nicolás Cabrera 13, Campus Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Madrid 28049 (Spain); Rabinovici, Eliezer [Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University,Jerusalem 91904 (Israel); Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Hautes Energies, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

2016-01-15

We study the evolution of holographic complexity in various AdS/CFT models containing cosmological crunch singularities. We find that a notion of complexity measured by extremal bulk volumes tends to decrease as the singularity is approached in CFT time, suggesting that the corresponding quantum states have simpler entanglement structure at the singularity.

Holographic complexity and spacetime singularities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbón, José L.F.; Rabinovici, Eliezer

2016-01-01

We study the evolution of holographic complexity in various AdS/CFT models containing cosmological crunch singularities. We find that a notion of complexity measured by extremal bulk volumes tends to decrease as the singularity is approached in CFT time, suggesting that the corresponding quantum states have simpler entanglement structure at the singularity.

E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project. Launch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyrolle, F.; Charmasson, S.; Masson, O.

2005-01-01

Due to the drastic decrease in artificial radioactivity levels from primary sources such as atmospheric fallout or industrial releases, radioactive storages constituted in the past within several environmental compartments act today as non negligible secondary sources. These delayed sources are particularly active during extreme weather or climatic events such as rainfalls or atmospheric deposits, floods, storms, etc...that may remove important mass, generate activity levels higher than the predicted ones from modeling based on mean transfer process, and produce in a couple of hours or days fluxes similar to those accrued over several month or years. Extreme aims at assessing the consequences on man and its environment of natural events that generate extreme radioactive stocks and/or fluxes within several environmental compartments (atmosphere, soils, rivers, coastal marine environment and deep sea areas). (authors)

Cellulolytic properties of an extremely thermophilic anaerobe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hudson, J A; Morgan, H W; Daniel, R M [Waikato Univ., Hamilton (New Zealand). Microbial Biochemistry and Biotechnology Unit

1990-09-01

An extremely thermophilic anaerobe was isolated from a New Zealand hot spring by incubating bacterial mat strands in a medium containing xylan. The Gramreaction-negative organism that was subsequently purified had a temperature optimum of 70deg C and a pH optimum of 7.0. The isolate, designated strain H173, grew on a restricted range of carbon sources. In batch culture H173 could degrade Avicel completely when supplied at 5 or 10 g l{sup -1}. There was an initial growth phase, during which a cellulase complex was produced and carbohydrates fermented to form acetic and lactic acids, followed by a phase where cells were not metabolising but the cellulase complex actively converted cellulose to glucose. When co-cultered with strain Rt8.B1, an ethanologenic extreme thermophile, glucose was fermented to ethanol and acetate, and no reducing sugars accumulated in the medium. In pH controlled batch culture H173 produced an increased amount of lactate and acetate but there was again a phase when reducing sugars accumulated in the medium, and these were converted to ethanol by co-culture with Rt8.B1. (orig.).

Tetra- and hexavalent uranium forms bidentate-mononuclear complexes with particulate organic matter in a naturally uranium-enriched peatland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikutta, Christian; Langner, Peggy; Bargar, John R.

2016-01-01

Peatlands frequently serve as efficient biogeochemical traps for U. Mechanisms of U immobilization in these organic matter-dominated environments may encompass the precipitation of U-bearing mineral(oid)s and the complexation of U by a vast range of (in)organic surfaces. The objective of this work...... of bidentate-mononuclear U(IV/VI) complexes with carboxyl groups. We neither found evidence for U shells at ∼3.9 Å, indicative of mineral-associated U or multinuclear U(IV) species, nor for a substantial P/Fe coordination of U. Our data indicates that U(IV/VI) complexation by natural organic matter prevents...... the precipitation of U minerals as well as U complexation by Fe/Mn phases at our field site, and suggests that organically complexed U(IV) is formed via reduction of organic matter-bound U(VI)....

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Science.gov (United States)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Variability of morphometric parameters of feet in various forms of lower extremities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konnova O.V.

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to identify the various forms of lower extremities variability of linear and angular parameters of feet in girls aged 17-19 years. Material and Methods. The object of the study included 242 students from Saratov State Medical University, 17—19 years. Foot digital plantography photometric device-software complex «Plantvizor» and measuring distances between sibling points of lower extremities to highlight their forms have been used as a method of research. Results. 8 forms of lower extremities, among which half per cent occurs in isolated form, valgus-direct from the mil-lennim clearance opening and a trapezoidal shape of lower extremities varus. In all forms of lower extremities morphometric parameters of feet and ratio of statistically significant differences in various forms of lower extremities have been studied. Conclusion. Anatomical basis for operational adjustment of axial disorders of tibiae and its influence on morphofunctional state of foot can be resulted from the study.

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

Simulation of complex fracture networks influenced by natural fractures in shale gas reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhao Jinzhou

2014-10-01

Full Text Available When hydraulic fractures intersect with natural fractures, the geometry and complexity of a fracture network are determined by the initiation and propagation pattern which is affected by a number of factors. Based on the fracture mechanics, the criterion for initiation and propagation of a fracture was introduced to analyze the tendency of a propagating angle and factors affecting propagating pressure. On this basis, a mathematic model with a complex fracture network was established to investigate how the fracture network form changes with different parameters, including rock mechanics, in-situ stress distribution, fracture properties, and frac treatment parameters. The solving process of this model was accelerated by classifying the calculation nodes on the extending direction of the fracture by equal pressure gradients, and solving the geometrical parameters prior to the iteration fitting flow distribution. With the initiation and propagation criterion as the bases for the propagation of branch fractures, this method decreased the iteration times through eliminating the fitting of the fracture length in conventional 3D fracture simulation. The simulation results indicated that the formation with abundant natural fractures and smaller in-situ stress difference is sufficient conditions for fracture network development. If the pressure in the hydraulic fractures can be kept at a high level by temporary sealing or diversion, the branch fractures will propagate further with minor curvature radius, thus enlarging the reservoir stimulation area. The simulated shape of fracture network can be well matched with the field microseismic mapping in data point range and distribution density, validating the accuracy of this model.

Germination and seedling establishment in orchids: a complex of requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Hanne N; Dixon, Kingsley W; Jersáková, Jana; Těšitelová, Tamara

2015-09-01

Seedling recruitment is essential to the sustainability of any plant population. Due to the minute nature of seeds and early-stage seedlings, orchid germination in situ was for a long time practically impossible to observe, creating an obstacle towards understanding seedling site requirements and fluctuations in orchid populations. The introduction of seed packet techniques for sowing and retrieval in natural sites has brought with it important insights, but many aspects of orchid seed and germination biology remain largely unexplored. The germination niche for orchids is extremely complex, because it is defined by requirements not only for seed lodging and germination, but also for presence of a fungal host and its substrate. A mycobiont that the seedling can parasitize is considered an essential element, and a great diversity of Basidiomycota and Ascomycota have now been identified for their role in orchid seed germination, with fungi identifiable as imperfect Rhizoctonia species predominating. Specificity patterns vary from orchid species employing a single fungal lineage to species associating individually with a limited selection of distantly related fungi. A suitable organic carbon source for the mycobiont constitutes another key requirement. Orchid germination also relies on factors that generally influence the success of plant seeds, both abiotic, such as light/shade, moisture, substrate chemistry and texture, and biotic, such as competitors and antagonists. Complexity is furthermore increased when these factors influence seeds/seedling, fungi and fungal substrate differentially. A better understanding of germination and seedling establishment is needed for conservation of orchid populations. Due to the obligate association with a mycobiont, the germination niches in orchid species are extremely complex and varied. Microsites suitable for germination can be small and transient, and direct observation is difficult. An experimental approach using several

Complexity explained

CERN Document Server

Erdi, Peter

2008-01-01

This book explains why complex systems research is important in understanding the structure, function and dynamics of complex natural and social phenomena. Readers will learn the basic concepts and methods of complex system research.

Intelligibility in microbial complex systems: Wittgenstein and the score of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Baquero, Fernando; Moya, Andrés

2012-01-01

Knowledge in microbiology is reaching an extreme level of diversification and complexity, which paradoxically results in a strong reduction in the intelligibility of microbial life. In our days, the "score of life" metaphor is more accurate to express the complexity of living systems than the classic "book of life." Music and life can be represented at lower hierarchical levels by music scores and genomic sequences, and such representations have a generational influence in the reproduction of music and life. If music can be considered as a representation of life, such representation remains as unthinkable as life itself. The analysis of scores and genomic sequences might provide mechanistic, phylogenetic, and evolutionary insights into music and life, but not about their real dynamics and nature, which is still maintained unthinkable, as was proposed by Wittgenstein. As complex systems, life or music is composed by thinkable and only showable parts, and a strategy of half-thinking, half-seeing is needed to expand knowledge. Complex models for complex systems, based on experiences on trans-hierarchical integrations, should be developed in order to provide a mixture of legibility and imageability of biological processes, which should lead to higher levels of intelligibility of microbial life.

The Chameleonic Nature of Platinum(II) Imidazopyridine Complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinter, Piermaria; Pittkowski, Rebecca; Soellner, Johannes; Strassner, Thomas

2017-10-12

The synthesis and characterization of cyclometalated C^C* platinum(II) complexes with unique photophysical properties, aggregation induced enhancement of the quantum yields with a simultaneous decrease of phosphorescence lifetimes, is reported. Additionally, a change of emission color is induced by variation of the excitation wavelength. The aggregation behavior of these complexes is controlled by the steric demand of the substituents. The photophysical properties of these complexes are investigated through emission-excitation matrix analysis (EEM). The monomeric complexes are excellent room temperature phosphorescent blue emitters with emission maxima below 470 nm and quantum yields of up to 93 %. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Regional tendencies of extreme wind characteristics in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Radics, Dr.; Bartholy, Dr.; Péliné

2009-09-01

Human activities have substantial effects on climate system. It has already accepted that change in the long-term climatic mean state will have significant consequences in the global economy and society, but the most important effects of climate change may come from changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes. It is therefore of great interest to document the extremes of surface wind that could assist in estimating the regional effects of climate change. The research presented is based on 34-year-long (1975-2008) wind (speed, direction, and wind gust) data sets of 36 Hungarian synoptic meteorological stations. After processing (including digitalisation of old instrumental records, quality control and homogenisation of wind time series) the measured wind data sets, time series and complex wind climate analysis were carried out. Spatial and temporal distributions of mean and extreme wind climate characteristics were estimated, wind extremes and trends were interpolated and mapped over the country. Finally, measured and reanalysed (ERA40) wind data were compared over Hungary, in order to verify not only the validity of ERA40 reanalysed data sets, but the adaptability of climate simulation results in estimation of regional climate change effects.

Application of the thermodynamic extremal principle to phase-field modeling of non-equilibrium solidification in multi-component alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Haifeng; Kuang, Wangwang; Zhang, Jianbao

2017-01-01

Modeling of non-equilibrium solidification in multi-component alloys is of singular importance in microstructure control, which however owing to the complex systems with complex additional constraints is still an open problem. In this work, the thermodynamic extremal principle was applied to solve the complex additional constraints self-consistently in thermodynamics. Consequently, short-range solute redistribution and long-range solute diffusion that share the same mobility are integrated naturally into the solute diffusion equations, thus avoiding the introduction of additional kinetic coefficients (e.g. interface permeability) to describe solute redistribution. Application to the non-equilibrium solidification of Al-Si-Cu alloys shows that anomalous solute trapping and anomalous solute profiles within the diffuse interface could occur, thus highlighting the important effect of the interaction among the component elements on the interface kinetics. The current phase-field model might be preferred for simulations not only because of its simplest form of evolution equations but also its feasibility to increase the simulation efficiency by the “thin interface limit” analysis.

Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Structural analysis and binding domain of albumin complexes with natural dietary supplement humic acid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Fei; Diao Jianxiong; Yang Xinling; Sun Ying

2011-01-01

Humic acid, a natural ionic molecule, is rapidly being recognized as one of the crucial elements in our modern diets of the new century. A biophysical protocol utilizing circular dichroism (CD), steady state and time-resolved fluorescence for the investigation of the complexation of the humic acid to the staple in vivo transporter, human serum albumin (HSA), as a model for protein-humic substances, is proclaimed. The alterations of CD and three-dimensional fluorescence suggest that the polypeptide chain of HSA partially folded after complexation with humic acid. The data of fluorescence emission displayed that the binding of humic acid to HSA is the formation of HSA-humic acid complex with an association constant of 10 4 M -1 ; this corroborates the fluorescence lifetime measurements that the static mechanism was operated. The precise binding domain of humic acid in HSA has been verified from the denaturation of albumin, hydrophobic ANS displacement, and site-specific ligands; subdomain IIA (Sudlow's site I) was earmarked to possess high-affinity for humic acid. The observations are relevant for other albumin-humic substance systems when the ligands have analogous configuration with humic acid. - Highlights: → Albumin structure partially folds upon humic acid complexation. → Static type is dominance for the diminution in the Trp-214 fluorescence.→ Subdomain IIA is designate to possess high-affinity site for humic acid.

How nature works complexity in interdisciplinary research and applications

CERN Document Server

Sanayei, Ali; Zenil, Hector; Rössler, Otto

2014-01-01

This book is based on the outcome of the “2012 Interdisciplinary Symposium on Complex Systems” held at the island of Kos.  The book consists of 12 selected papers of the symposium starting with a comprehensive overview and classification of complexity problems, continuing by chapters about complexity, its observation, modeling and its applications to solving various problems including real-life applications. More exactly, readers will have an encounter with the structural complexity of vortex flows, the use of chaotic dynamics within evolutionary algorithms, complexity in synthetic biology, types of complexity hidden inside evolutionary dynamics and possible controlling methods, complexity of rugged landscapes, and more. All selected papers represent innovative ideas, philosophical overviews and state-of-the-art discussions on aspects of complexity.  The book will be useful as instructional material for senior undergraduate and entry-level graduate students in computer science, physics, applied mathemat...

Extremely Randomized Machine Learning Methods for Compound Activity Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wojciech M. Czarnecki

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Speed, a relatively low requirement for computational resources and high effectiveness of the evaluation of the bioactivity of compounds have caused a rapid growth of interest in the application of machine learning methods to virtual screening tasks. However, due to the growth of the amount of data also in cheminformatics and related fields, the aim of research has shifted not only towards the development of algorithms of high predictive power but also towards the simplification of previously existing methods to obtain results more quickly. In the study, we tested two approaches belonging to the group of so-called ‘extremely randomized methods’—Extreme Entropy Machine and Extremely Randomized Trees—for their ability to properly identify compounds that have activity towards particular protein targets. These methods were compared with their ‘non-extreme’ competitors, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The extreme approaches were not only found out to improve the efficiency of the classification of bioactive compounds, but they were also proved to be less computationally complex, requiring fewer steps to perform an optimization procedure.

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

Science.gov (United States)

Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

2012-04-01

The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

Flooding experience at Veracruz: not only a natural disaster

Science.gov (United States)

Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Nava Bringas, M.; Ochoa Martinez, C.; Local; regional impacts of global change

2013-05-01

The Veracruz state lies on the middle of the Gulf of Mexico in Mexican Republic; has a surface of 72815 Km2 represent almost the 4% of Mexico. Due to the complex topography, the rainfall, runoff and the extreme weather the 33% of Mexican water goes trough Veracruz, and every year the presence of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes impacts on the habitants of Veracruz (7.5 millions). For Veracruz the Sierra Madre is the natural border on the West and on the East the Gulf of Mexico. It is located from 17°10' to 23°38' (N) and between 93° to 99° (W). We will try to get the find out the primary information source for the floods on 2005 and 20010 and correlate with the laws on environment and civil protection for Veracruz. In 1999 a tropical depression more than 200 000 persons and more than 20 died, in 2005 Stan hurricane affected more than a million persons but no one died. In 2010 the effects of hurricane Karl were similar but a few days after the tropical depression Mathew affected 150 000 persons more and 15 people died. The patterns of people habitat in Veracruz since middle of XX century follows the oil industry develop at south east Mexico, so the risk increased as the population density increased, that's a critical reason to concluded that is not only cause - effect issue on Veracruz. So if the extreme events increase as consequence of the climate variability and climate change the vulnerability on this region will not be address in prevention policies, and the future scenario on adaptation will be a deep complex problem to solve from all perspectives.Reported impactst; Extreme events. Data from Veracruz Government.

Modeling and simulating command and control for organizations under extreme situations

CERN Document Server

Moon, Il-Chul; Kim, Tag Gon

2013-01-01

Commanding and controlling organizations in extreme situations is a challenging task in military, intelligence, and disaster management. Such command and control must be quick, effective, and considerate when dealing with the changing, complex, and risky conditions of the situation. To enable optimal command and control under extremes, robust structures and efficient operations are required of organizations. This work discusses how to design and conduct virtual experiments on resilient organizational structures and operational practices using modeling and simulation. The work illustrates key a

[Complex posttraumatic stress disorder].

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Tamar; Kotler, Moshe

2007-11-01

The characteristic symptoms resulting from exposure to an extreme trauma include three clusters of symptoms: persistent experience of the traumatic event, persistent avoidance of stimuli associated with the trauma and persistent symptoms of increased arousal. Beyond the accepted clusters of symptoms for posttraumatic stress disorder exists a formation of symptoms related to exposure to extreme or prolonged stress e.g. childhood abuse, physical violence, rape, and confinement within a concentration camp. With accumulated evidence of the existence of these symptoms began a trail to classify a more complex syndrome, which included, but was not confined to the symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This review addresses several subjects for study in complex posttraumatic stress disorder, which is a complicated and controversial topic. Firstly, the concept of complex posttraumatic stress disorder is presented. Secondly, the professional literature relevant to this disturbance is reviewed and finally, the authors present the polemic being conducted between the researchers of posttraumatic disturbances regarding validity, reliability and the need for separate diagnosis for these symptoms.

Energy and carbon emissions analysis and prediction of complex petrochemical systems based on an improved extreme learning machine integrated interpretative structural model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Yongming; Zhu, Qunxiong; Geng, Zhiqiang; Xu, Yuan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • The ELM integrated ISM (ISM-ELM) method is proposed. • The proposed method is more efficient and accurate than the ELM through the UCI data set. • Energy and carbon emissions analysis and prediction of petrochemical industries based ISM-ELM is obtained. • The proposed method is valid in improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions of ethylene plants. - Abstract: Energy saving and carbon emissions reduction of the petrochemical industry are affected by many factors. Thus, it is difficult to analyze and optimize the energy of complex petrochemical systems accurately. This paper proposes an energy and carbon emissions analysis and prediction approach based on an improved extreme learning machine (ELM) integrated interpretative structural model (ISM) (ISM-ELM). ISM based the partial correlation coefficient is utilized to analyze key parameters that affect the energy and carbon emissions of the complex petrochemical system, and can denoise and reduce dimensions of data to decrease the training time and errors of the ELM prediction model. Meanwhile, in terms of the model accuracy and the training time, the robustness and effectiveness of the ISM-ELM model are better than the ELM through standard data sets from the University of California Irvine (UCI) repository. Moreover, a multi-inputs and single-output (MISO) model of energy and carbon emissions of complex ethylene systems is established based on the ISM-ELM. Finally, detailed analyses and simulations using the real ethylene plant data demonstrate the effectiveness of the ISM-ELM and can guide the improvement direction of energy saving and carbon emissions reduction in complex petrochemical systems.

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts

Mandelbrot's Extremism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

2004-01-01

In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

Characterization of natural adsorbent material for heavy metal removal in a petrochemical site contamination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bianchi F.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Despite of over 25 years of intensive technological efforts, sub-surface environment cleanup still remains a challenge, especially in case of highly contaminated sites. In this context, ion exchanger technologies could provide simple and effective solutions for heavy metal removal in water treatment. The challenge is finding exchanger able to operate in extreme natural environments or in situations involving natural interfering species such as inorganic ions. In this paper we exam the use of natural zeolites as versatile exchanger for environmental protection of coastal refinery's groundwater against pollution of Ni, Cd, Pb. The influence of particle diameter on clinoptilolite performances toward heavy metal removal is studied. Also, we evaluate the exchanger activities in condition of high ionic strength, commonly present in groundwater located under coastal petrol industries. The obtained results confirmed that ion exchangers could provide an effective solutions for remediation in complex environmental conditions.

A Natural Mutation Involving both Pathogenicity and Perithecium Formation in the Fusarium graminearum Species Complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haruhisha Suga

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Members of the Fusarium graminearum species complex (Fg complex or FGSC are the primary pathogens causing Fusarium head blight in wheat and barley worldwide. A natural pathogenicity mutant (strain 0225022 was found in a sample of the Fg complex collected in Japan. The mutant strain did not induce symptoms in wheat spikes beyond the point of inoculation, and did not form perithecia. No segregation of phenotypic deficiencies occurred in the progenies of a cross between the mutant and a fully pathogenic wild-type strain, which suggested that a single genetic locus controlled both traits. The locus was mapped to chromosome 2 by using sequence-tagged markers; and a deletion of ∼3 kb was detected in the mapped region of the mutant strain. The wild-type strain contains the FGSG_02810 gene, encoding a putative glycosylphosphatidylinositol anchor protein, in this region. The contribution of FGSG_02810 to pathogenicity and perithecium formation was confirmed by complementation in the mutant strain using gene transfer, and by gene disruption in the wild-type strain.

A shift in nuclear state as the result of natural interspecific hybridization between two North American taxa of the basidiomycete complex Heterobasidion

Science.gov (United States)

Matteo Garbelotto; Paolo Gonthier; Rachel Linzer; Giovanni Nicolotti; William Otrosina

2004-01-01

A natural first generation hybrid fungus shows interspecific heterozygosity. The nuclear condition of a rare natural hybrid between two taxa of the Heterobasidion complex is investigated. Heterobasidion species are known to be either homokaryotic (haploid) or heterokaryotic (n + n), but heterokaryons are made up of both...

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Murray, Megan B.; Farmer, Paul E.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Keenan, Donald C.

2014-01-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development. PMID:24690902

Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

Science.gov (United States)

Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2015-04-01

In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Radiologic diagnosis of malignant soft-tissue tumors of the extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, P.E.; Friedmann, G.

1983-01-01

In malignant soft-tissue tumors of the extremities the radiologist is asked to define size and extent of the lesion and it's relationship to adjacent structures. The assessment of the nature of the lesion is of utmost importance, however, the contribution of the different imaging modalities varies considerably. In a review article the current roles of conventional radiography, xeroradiography, real-time ultrasonography, computed tomography and arteriography in the diagnostic workup of malignant soft-tissue tumors of the extremities are discussed. The statements made are based upon own comparative studies as well as on a review of the literature. In the assessment of the nature of a soft-tissue mass the contribution of all radiologic imaging methods is rather limited, although arteriography may add valuable information if performed complementary to CT. Real-time ultrasonography is well suited to define size, location and extent of peripheral soft-tissue masses. It is therefore recommended as the first imaging method and for follow-up studies. Equivocal findings by real-time sonography and new cases for treatment planning must be confirmed by computed tomography which proved to be the most reliable and the best reproducible imaging method for soft-tissue tumors of the extremities. (orig.)

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

Science.gov (United States)

Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Yiou, Pascal

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

2017-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the

Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

2016-11-15

The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

Natural Heavy Supersymmetry

CERN Document Server

Batell, Brian; McCullough, Matthew

2015-01-01

We study how, as a result of the scanning of supersymmetry breaking during the cosmological evolution, a relaxation mechanism can naturally determine a hierarchy between the weak scale and the masses of supersymmetric particles. Supersymmetry breaking is determined by QCD instanton effects, in an extremely minimal setup in which a single field drives the relaxation and breaks supersymmetry. Since gauginos are lighter than the other supersymmetric particles by a one-loop factor, the theory is a realisation of Split Supersymmetry free from the naturalness problem.

Retention of habitat complexity minimizes disassembly of reef fish communities following disturbance: a large-scale natural experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J Emslie

Full Text Available High biodiversity ecosystems are commonly associated with complex habitats. Coral reefs are highly diverse ecosystems, but are under increasing pressure from numerous stressors, many of which reduce live coral cover and habitat complexity with concomitant effects on other organisms such as reef fishes. While previous studies have highlighted the importance of habitat complexity in structuring reef fish communities, they employed gradient or meta-analyses which lacked a controlled experimental design over broad spatial scales to explicitly separate the influence of live coral cover from overall habitat complexity. Here a natural experiment using a long term (20 year, spatially extensive (∼ 115,000 kms(2 dataset from the Great Barrier Reef revealed the fundamental importance of overall habitat complexity for reef fishes. Reductions of both live coral cover and habitat complexity had substantial impacts on fish communities compared to relatively minor impacts after major reductions in coral cover but not habitat complexity. Where habitat complexity was substantially reduced, species abundances broadly declined and a far greater number of fish species were locally extirpated, including economically important fishes. This resulted in decreased species richness and a loss of diversity within functional groups. Our results suggest that the retention of habitat complexity following disturbances can ameliorate the impacts of coral declines on reef fishes, so preserving their capacity to perform important functional roles essential to reef resilience. These results add to a growing body of evidence about the importance of habitat complexity for reef fishes, and represent the first large-scale examination of this question on the Great Barrier Reef.

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Robust representation and recognition of facial emotions using extreme sparse learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Shojaeilangari, Seyedehsamaneh; Yau, Wei-Yun; Nandakumar, Karthik; Li, Jun; Teoh, Eam Khwang

2015-07-01

Recognition of natural emotions from human faces is an interesting topic with a wide range of potential applications, such as human-computer interaction, automated tutoring systems, image and video retrieval, smart environments, and driver warning systems. Traditionally, facial emotion recognition systems have been evaluated on laboratory controlled data, which is not representative of the environment faced in real-world applications. To robustly recognize the facial emotions in real-world natural situations, this paper proposes an approach called extreme sparse learning, which has the ability to jointly learn a dictionary (set of basis) and a nonlinear classification model. The proposed approach combines the discriminative power of extreme learning machine with the reconstruction property of sparse representation to enable accurate classification when presented with noisy signals and imperfect data recorded in natural settings. In addition, this paper presents a new local spatio-temporal descriptor that is distinctive and pose-invariant. The proposed framework is able to achieve the state-of-the-art recognition accuracy on both acted and spontaneous facial emotion databases.

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kennedy, Aaron D.

2012-01-01

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts oflocalland-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. In addition, we examine the impact of improved specification ofland surface states, anomalies, and fluxes that are obtained through the use of a hew optimization and uncertainty module in LIS, on the L-A coupling in WRF forecasts. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Interaction of natural complexing agents with soil bound heavy metals -geochemical and environmental technical aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, K.

1994-01-01

The sanitation of heavy metal polluted soils requires the application of an adequate technology, which should be consistent in its ecological aims and methodology. Therefore a research programme has been developed at the 'Institute of Ecological Chemistry' of the 'GSF-Research Center', Neuherberg, which has its starting point in the study of influences of natural organic complexing agents on the chemical activity and dynamic of heavy metals in soils. The groundlaying idea is to elevate the concentration of complexing agents in the soil solution by additional application and possible stimulation of their microbial production to such an extent, that heavy metals will be enhanced solubilized, mobilized and removed together with the seepage water. Batch experiments in order to extract heavy metals from typical soil components (bentonite, peat) by amino acids demonstrate, that removal rates up to 95% can be obtained. (orig.) [de

Extreme value distributions

CERN Document Server

Ahsanullah, Mohammad

2016-01-01

The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

Nature-Inspired Cognitive Evolution to Play MS. Pac-Man

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Tse Guan; Teo, Jason; Anthony, Patricia

Recent developments in nature-inspired computation have heightened the need for research into the three main areas of scientific, engineering and industrial applications. Some approaches have reported that it is able to solve dynamic problems and very useful for improving the performance of various complex systems. So far however, there has been little discussion about the effectiveness of the application of these models to computer and video games in particular. The focus of this research is to explore the hybridization of nature-inspired computation methods for optimization of neural network-based cognition in video games, in this case the combination of a neural network with an evolutionary algorithm. In essence, a neural network is an attempt to mimic the extremely complex human brain system, which is building an artificial brain that is able to self-learn intelligently. On the other hand, an evolutionary algorithm is to simulate the biological evolutionary processes that evolve potential solutions in order to solve the problems or tasks by applying the genetic operators such as crossover, mutation and selection into the solutions. This paper investigates the abilities of Evolution Strategies (ES) to evolve feed-forward artificial neural network's internal parameters (i.e. weight and bias values) for automatically generating Ms. Pac-man controllers. The main objective of this game is to clear a maze of dots while avoiding the ghosts and to achieve the highest possible score. The experimental results show that an ES-based system can be successfully applied to automatically generate artificial intelligence for a complex, dynamic and highly stochastic video game environment.

Small saccades and image complexity during free viewing of natural images in schizophrenia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Ignacio Egaña

2013-05-01

Full Text Available In schizophrenia, patients display dysfunctions during the execution of simple visual tasks such as anti-saccade or smooth pursuit. In more ecological scenarios, such as free viewing of natural images, patients appear to make fewer and longer visual fixations and display shorter scanpaths. It is not clear whether these measurements reflect alterations in their proficiency to perform basic eye movements, such as saccades and fixations, or are related to high-level mechanisms, such as exploration or attention. We utilized free exploration of natural images of different complexities as a model of an ecological context where normally operative mechanisms of visual control can be accurately measured. We quantified visual exploration as Euclidean distance, scanpaths, saccades and visual fixation, using the standard SR-Research eye tracker algorithm (SR. We then compared this result with a computation that includes microsaccades (EM. We evaluated 8 schizophrenia patients and corresponding healthy controls (HC. Next, we tested whether the decrement in the number of saccades and fixations, as well as their increment in duration reported previously in schizophrenia patients, resulted from the increasing occurrence of undetected microsaccades. We found that when utilizing the standard SR algorithm, patients displayed shorter scanpaths as well as fewer and shorter saccades and fixations. When we employed the EM algorithm, the differences in these parameters between patients and HC were no longer significant. On the other hand, we found that image complexity plays an important role in exploratory behaviors, demonstrating that this factor explains most of differences between eye-movement behaviors in schizophrenia patients. These results help elucidate the mechanisms of visual motor control that are affected in schizophrenia and contribute to the finding of adequate markers for diagnosis and treatment for this condition.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

The Nature of Conceptual Understanding in Biomedicine: The Deep Structure of Complex Ideas and the Development of Misconceptions. Technical Report No. 440.

Science.gov (United States)

Feltovich, Paul J.; And Others

This report presents a general framework for studying the acquisition and cognitive representation of biomedical concepts and analyzing the nature and development of misconceptions. The central approach of the report is a selective and highly concentrated analysis of the true nature of clusters of complex concepts and the manner in which they are…

Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Wierzchos, Jacek; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne; Vítek, Petr; Artieda, Octavio; Souza-Egipsy, Virginia; Škaloud, Pavel; Tisza, Michel; Davila, Alfonso F; Vílchez, Carlos; Garbayo, Inés; Ascaso, Carmen

2015-01-01

The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits-conceptually called "rock's habitable architecture." Additionally, self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another level of adaptation.

Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

Science.gov (United States)

Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

2015-09-01

Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

"Bunched Black Swans" in Complex Geosystems: Cross-Disciplinary Approaches to the Additive and Multiplicative Modelling of Correlated Extreme Bursts

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, N. W.; Rypdal, M.; Lovsletten, O.

2012-12-01

For all natural hazards, the question of when the next "extreme event" (c.f. Taleb's "black swans") is expected is of obvious importance. In the environmental sciences users often frame such questions in terms of average "return periods", e.g. "is an X meter rise in the Thames water level a 1-in-Y year event ?". Frequently, however, we also care about the emergence of correlation, and whether the probability of several big events occurring in close succession is truly independent, i.e. are the black swans "bunched". A "big event", or a "burst", defined by its integrated signal above a threshold, might be a single, very large, event, or, instead, could in fact be a correlated series of "smaller" (i.e. less wildly fluctuating) events. Several available stochastic approaches provide quantitative information about such bursts, including Extreme Value Theory (EVT); the theory of records; level sets; sojourn times; and models of space-time "avalanches" of activity in non-equilibrium systems. Some focus more on the probability of single large events. Others are more concerned with extended dwell times above a given spatiotemporal threshold: However, the state of the art is not yet fully integrated, and the above-mentioned approaches differ in fundamental aspects. EVT is perhaps the best known in the geosciences. It is concerned with the distribution obeyed by the extremes of datasets, e.g. the 100 values obtained by considering the largest daily temperature recorded in each of the years of a century. However, the pioneering work from the 1920s on which EVT originally built was based on independent identically distributed samples, and took no account of memory and correlation that characterise many natural hazard time series. Ignoring this would fundamentally limit our ability to forecast; so much subsequent activity has been devoted to extending EVT to encompass dependence. A second group of approaches, by contrast, has notions of time and thus possible non

Determination of crystal structures by x-ray diffraction: applications to a lanthanide complex and a natural organic compound

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miranda, J.M. de.

1986-01-01

The study fir determining crystal structures of the Ho (ReO sub(4)) sub(3) 4 TDTD 3 H sub(2) O complex and the natural organic compound C sub(14) H sub(16) O sub(6) by X-ray diffraction are presented. The experimental equipments are described in details. (M.C.K.)

Intersubject information mapping: revealing canonical representations of complex natural stimuli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Real-world time-continuous stimuli such as video promise greater naturalism for studies of brain function. However, modeling the stimulus variation is challenging and introduces a bias in favor of particular descriptive dimensions. Alternatively, we can look for brain regions whose signal is correlated between subjects, essentially using one subject to model another. Intersubject correlation mapping (ICM allows us to find brain regions driven in a canonical manner across subjects by a complex natural stimulus. However, it requires a direct voxel-to-voxel match between the spatiotemporal activity patterns and is thus only sensitive to common activations sufficiently extended to match up in Talairach space (or in an alternative, e.g. cortical-surface-based, common brain space. Here we introduce the more general approach of intersubject information mapping (IIM. For each brain region, IIM determines how much information is shared between the subjects' local spatiotemporal activity patterns. We estimate the intersubject mutual information using canonical correlation analysis applied to voxels within a spherical searchlight centered on each voxel in turn. The intersubject information estimate is invariant to linear transforms including spatial rearrangement of the voxels within the searchlight. This invariance to local encoding will be crucial in exploring fine-grained brain representations, which cannot be matched up in a common space and, more fundamentally, might be unique to each individual – like fingerprints. IIM yields a continuous brain map, which reflects intersubject information in fine-grained patterns. Performed on data from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI of subjects viewing the same television show, IIM and ICM both highlighted sensory representations, including primary visual and auditory cortices. However, IIM revealed additional regions in higher association cortices, namely temporal pole and orbitofrontal cortex. These

Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

Science.gov (United States)

Korup, Oliver

2012-05-01

Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

Revolutionaries, wanderers, converts, and compliants: Life histories of extreme right activists

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linden, A.; Klandermans, P.G.

2007-01-01

Life-history interviews were conducted with thirty-six extreme right activists in the Netherlands (1996-1998). Becoming an activist was a matter of continuity, of conversion, or of compliance. Continuity denotes life histories wherein movement membership and participation are a natural consequence

Extremely Preterm Birth

Science.gov (United States)

... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

Radiographic assessment of congenital malformations of the upper extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winfeld, Matthew J.; Otero, Hansel

2016-01-01

Congenital and developmental malformations of the upper extremity are uncommon and their diagnosis can challenge radiologists. Many complex classification systems exist, the latest of which accounts for the complex embryology and pathogenetic mechanisms that govern the formation of these anomalies. Using appropriate descriptors allows for more specific diagnosis and improved consultation with referring pediatricians and surgeons, helping to guide medical and surgical interventions and, if indicated, further investigation for associated abnormalities and underlying syndromes. We review the imaging characteristics of upper limb malformations to help pediatric radiologists better understand the classification and workup necessary in these cases. (orig.)

Radiographic assessment of congenital malformations of the upper extremity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winfeld, Matthew J. [Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Department of Radiology, Musculoskeletal Division, Penn Medicine University City, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Otero, Hansel [Children' s National Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Washington, DC (United States)

2016-09-15

Congenital and developmental malformations of the upper extremity are uncommon and their diagnosis can challenge radiologists. Many complex classification systems exist, the latest of which accounts for the complex embryology and pathogenetic mechanisms that govern the formation of these anomalies. Using appropriate descriptors allows for more specific diagnosis and improved consultation with referring pediatricians and surgeons, helping to guide medical and surgical interventions and, if indicated, further investigation for associated abnormalities and underlying syndromes. We review the imaging characteristics of upper limb malformations to help pediatric radiologists better understand the classification and workup necessary in these cases. (orig.)

Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ewing, Rodney C. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Lang, Maik [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2015-07-30

The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO₂, GeO₂, CeO₂, TiO₂, HfO₂, SnO₂, ZnO and ZrO₂) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University; Scherer, Martin [Stanford University; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL

2012-01-01

Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Soft Tissue Reconstruction of Complete Circumferential Defects of the Upper Extremity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi Yang Ng

2017-03-01

Full Text Available BackgroundUpper extremity soft tissue defects with complete circumferential involvement are not common. Coupled with the unique anatomy of the upper extremity, the underlying etiology of such circumferential soft tissue defects represent additional reconstructive challenges that require treatment to be tailored to both the patient and the wound. The aim of this study is to review the various options for soft tissue reconstruction of complete circumferential defects in the upper extremity.MethodsA literature review of PubMed and MEDLINE up to December 2016 was performed. The current study focuses on forearm and arm defects from the level at or proximal to the wrist and were assessed based on Tajima's classification (J Trauma 1974. Data reviewed for analysis included patient demographics, causality, defect size, reconstructive technique(s employed, and postoperative follow-up and functional outcomes (when available.ResultsIn accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, 14 unique articles were identified for a total of 50 patients (mean=28.1 years. Underlying etiologies varied from extensive thermal or electrical burns to high impact trauma leading to degloving or avulsion, crush injuries, or even occur iatrogenically after tumor extirpation or extensive debridement. Treatment options ranged from the application of negative pressure wound dressings to the opposite end of the spectrum in hand transplantation.ConclusionsWith the evolution of reconstructive techniques over time, the extent of functional and aesthetic rehabilitation of these complex upper extremity injuries has also improved. The proposed management algorithm comprehensively addresses the inherent challenges associated with these complex cases.

The Natural Aging Effect on Hardenability in Al-Mg-Si: A Complex Interaction between Composition and Heat Treatment Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Poznak

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The technological relevance of Al-Mg-Si alloys has been rapidly growing over the last decade. Of particular interest to current and future applications is the problematic negative effect of prior natural aging on subsequent artificial age hardening. The influence of natural aging is dependent on both processing and compositional variables and has origins that are far from well-understood. This work examines the hardenability of 6000 series alloys under a wide range of conditions, paying particular attention to the natural aging effect. Experimental variables include alloy composition (Mg + Si, Mg/Si, cooling rate after solutionization, and duration of prior natural aging. Hardenability was evaluated with full hardness and conductivity aging curves for each condition, as well as select Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM. Results are discussed based on the actions of naturally aged solute clusters during artificial aging. In particular, a complex interaction between vacancy concentration, cluster stability, and precipitation driving force is suggested.

Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

2016-04-01

Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

The complexity of natural gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Boer, A.

2000-01-01

In the process of the deregulation of the energy market large consumers will have lots of opportunities to purchase natural gas and electricity cheaper than before. However, only one third seizes those opportunities. Special consultants can help to conclude supply contracts, focusing on the customer, supplier and commodity. Advantages and disadvantages of collective purchases of energy are briefly outlined

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B; Bugge, Katrine

2018-01-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions...... with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring...... or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex...

Detecting the chaotic nature in a transitional boundary layer using symbolic information-theory quantifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen; Liu, Peiqing; Guo, Hao; Wang, Jinjun

2017-11-01

The permutation entropy and the statistical complexity are employed to study the boundary-layer transition induced by the surface roughness. The velocity signals measured in the transition process are analyzed with these symbolic quantifiers, as well as the complexity-entropy causality plane, and the chaotic nature of the instability fluctuations is identified. The frequency of the dominant fluctuations has been found according to the time scales corresponding to the extreme values of the symbolic quantifiers. The laminar-turbulent transition process is accompanied by the evolution in the degree of organization of the complex eddy motions, which is also characterized with the growing smaller and flatter circles in the complexity-entropy causality plane. With the help of the permutation entropy and the statistical complexity, the differences between the chaotic fluctuations detected in the experiments and the classical Tollmien-Schlichting wave are shown and discussed. It is also found that the chaotic features of the instability fluctuations can be approximated with a number of regular sine waves superimposed on the fluctuations of the undisturbed laminar boundary layer. This result is related to the physical mechanism in the generation of the instability fluctuations, which is the noise-induced chaos.

Wireless peripheral nerve stimulation for complex regional pain syndrome type I of the upper extremity: a case illustration introducing a novel technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Herschkowitz, Daniel; Kubias, Jana

2018-04-13

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a debilitating painful disorder, cryptic in its pathophysiology and refractory condition with limited therapeutic options. Type I CRPS with its variable relationship to trauma has often no discernible fractures or nerve injuries and remains enigmatic in its response to conservative treatment as well as the other limited interventional therapies. Neuromodulation in the form of spinal cord and dorsal root ganglion stimulation (SCS, DRGS) has shown encouraging results, especially of causalgia or CRPS I of lower extremities. Upper extremity CRPS I is far more difficult. To report a case of upper extremity CRPS I treated by wireless peripheral nerve stimulation (WPNS) for its unique features and minimally invasive technique. The system does not involve implantation of battery or its connections. A 47 year old female patient presented with refractory CRPS I following a blunt trauma to her right forearm. As interventional treatment in the form of local anesthetics (Anesthesia of peripheral branches of radial nerve) and combined infusions of ketamine/lidocaine failed to provide any significant relief she opted for WPNS treatment. Based on the topographic distribution, two electrodes (Stimwave Leads: FR4A-RCV-A0 with tines, Generation 1 and FR4A-RCV-B0 with tines, Generation 1), were placed along the course of radial and median nerves under ultrasonography monitoring and guided by intraoperative stimulation. This procedure did not involve implantation of extension cables or the power source. At a frequency of 60 Hz and 300 μs the stimulation induced paresthesia along the distribution of the nerves. Therapeutic relief was observed with high frequency (HF) stimulation (HF 10 kHz/32 μs, 2.0 mA) reducing her pain from a visual analogue scale (VAS) score of 7-4 postoperatively. Three HF stimulations programs were provided at the time of discharge, as she improved in her sensory impairment to touch, pressure and temperature at her first

Extreme temperature indices analyses: A case study of five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-10-01

Extreme temperature events affect many human and natural systems. Changes in extreme temperature events can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the extreme temperature data. As an effort to provide the understanding of these changes to the public, a study of extreme temperature indices is conducted at five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, changes in the means and extreme events of temperature are assessed and compared using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 2004 to 2013. The absolute extreme temperature indices; TXx, TXn, TXn and TNn provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are utilized and linear trends of each index are extracted using least square likelihood method. The results indicate that there exist significant decreasing trend in the TXx index for Kota Bharu station and increasing trend in TNn index for Chuping and Kota Kinabalu stations. The comparison between the trend in mean and extreme temperatures show the same significant tendency for Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu stations.

Extreme environment electronics

CERN Document Server

Cressler, John D

2012-01-01

Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mbugua, L N; Mwita, P N

2013-01-01

Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2010-05-01

Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

Spatial and temporal accuracy of asynchrony-tolerant finite difference schemes for partial differential equations at extreme scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, Komal; Donzis, Diego

2017-11-01

Highly resolved computational simulations on massively parallel machines are critical in understanding the physics of a vast number of complex phenomena in nature governed by partial differential equations. Simulations at extreme levels of parallelism present many challenges with communication between processing elements (PEs) being a major bottleneck. In order to fully exploit the computational power of exascale machines one needs to devise numerical schemes that relax global synchronizations across PEs. This asynchronous computations, however, have a degrading effect on the accuracy of standard numerical schemes.We have developed asynchrony-tolerant (AT) schemes that maintain order of accuracy despite relaxed communications. We show, analytically and numerically, that these schemes retain their numerical properties with multi-step higher order temporal Runge-Kutta schemes. We also show that for a range of optimized parameters,the computation time and error for AT schemes is less than their synchronous counterpart. Stability of the AT schemes which depends upon history and random nature of delays, are also discussed. Support from NSF is gratefully acknowledged.

Overview of the biology of extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

2008-12-01

Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Faranda

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect – or are linked to phenomena which affect – human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes – namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948–2013. The results show that (i despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Thinking in complexity the complex dynamics of matter, mind, and mankind

CERN Document Server

Mainzer, Klaus

1994-01-01

The theory of nonlinear complex systems has become a successful and widely used problem-solving approach in the natural sciences - from laser physics, quantum chaos and meteorology to molecular modeling in chemistry and computer simulations of cell growth in biology In recent times it has been recognized that many of the social, ecological and political problems of mankind are also of a global, complex and nonlinear nature And one of the most exciting topics of present scientific and public interest is the idea that even the human mind is governed largely by the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems In this wide-ranging but concise treatment Prof Mainzer discusses, in nontechnical language, the common framework behind these endeavours Special emphasis is given to the evolution of new structures in natural and cultural systems and it is seen clearly how the new integrative approach of complexity theory can give new insights that were not available using traditional reductionistic methods

Insights into the nature of cometary organic matter from terrestrial analogues

Science.gov (United States)

Court, Richard W.; Sephton, Mark A.

2012-04-01

The nature of cometary organic matter is of great interest to investigations involving the formation and distribution of organic matter relevant to the origin of life. We have used pyrolysis-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to investigate the chemical effects of the irradiation of naturally occurring bitumens, and to relate their products of pyrolysis to their parent assemblages. The information acquired has then been applied to the complex organic matter present in cometary nuclei and comae. Amalgamating the FTIR data presented here with data from published studies enables the inference of other comprehensive trends within hydrocarbon mixtures as they are progressively irradiated in a cometary environment, namely the polymerization of lower molecular weight compounds; an increased abundance of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon structures; enrichment in 13C; reduction in atomic H/C ratio; elevation of atomic O/C ratio and increase in the temperature required for thermal degradation. The dark carbonaceous surface of a cometary nucleus will display extreme levels of these features, relative to the nucleus interior, while material in the coma will reflect the degree of irradiation experienced by its source location in the nucleus. Cometary comae with high methane/water ratios indicate a nucleus enriched in methane, favouring the formation of complex organic matter via radiation-induced polymerization of simple precursors. In contrast, production of complex organic matter is hindered in a nucleus possessing a low methane/water ration, with the complex organic matter that does form possessing more oxygen-containing species, such as alcohol, carbonyl and carboxylic acid functional groups, resulting from reactions with hydroxyl radicals formed by the radiolysis of the more abundant water. These insights into the properties of complex cometary organic matter should be of particular interest to both remote observation and space missions involving in situ

Statistical complexity without explicit reference to underlying probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Pennini, F.; Plastino, A.

2018-06-01

We show that extremely simple systems of a not too large number of particles can be simultaneously thermally stable and complex. To such an end, we extend the statistical complexity's notion to simple configurations of non-interacting particles, without appeal to probabilities, and discuss configurational properties.

A flexible object-based software framework for modeling complex systems with interacting natural and societal processes.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christiansen, J. H.

2000-06-15

The Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations. The DIAS infrastructure makes it feasible to build and manipulate complex simulation scenarios in which many thousands of objects can interact via dozens to hundreds of concurrent dynamic processes. The flexibility and extensibility of the DIAS software infrastructure stem mainly from (1) the abstraction of object behaviors, (2) the encapsulation and formalization of model functionality, and (3) the mutability of domain object contents. DIAS simulation objects are inherently capable of highly flexible and heterogeneous spatial realizations. Geospatial graphical representation of DIAS simulation objects is addressed via the GeoViewer, an object-based GIS toolkit application developed at ANL. DIAS simulation capabilities have been extended by inclusion of societal process models generated by the Framework for Addressing Cooperative Extended Transactions (FACET), another object-based framework developed at Argonne National Laboratory. By using FACET models to implement societal behaviors of individuals and organizations within larger DIAS-based natural systems simulations, it has become possible to conveniently address a broad range of issues involving interaction and feedback among natural and societal processes. Example DIAS application areas discussed in this paper include a dynamic virtual oceanic environment, detailed simulation of clinical, physiological, and logistical aspects of health care delivery, and studies of agricultural sustainability of urban centers under environmental stress in ancient Mesopotamia.

Selection for long and short sleep duration in Drosophila melanogaster reveals the complex genetic network underlying natural variation in sleep.

Science.gov (United States)

Harbison, Susan T; Serrano Negron, Yazmin L; Hansen, Nancy F; Lobell, Amanda S

2017-12-01

Why do some individuals need more sleep than others? Forward mutagenesis screens in flies using engineered mutations have established a clear genetic component to sleep duration, revealing mutants that convey very long or short sleep. Whether such extreme long or short sleep could exist in natural populations was unknown. We applied artificial selection for high and low night sleep duration to an outbred population of Drosophila melanogaster for 13 generations. At the end of the selection procedure, night sleep duration diverged by 9.97 hours in the long and short sleeper populations, and 24-hour sleep was reduced to 3.3 hours in the short sleepers. Neither long nor short sleeper lifespan differed appreciably from controls, suggesting little physiological consequences to being an extreme long or short sleeper. Whole genome sequence data from seven generations of selection revealed several hundred thousand changes in allele frequencies at polymorphic loci across the genome. Combining the data from long and short sleeper populations across generations in a logistic regression implicated 126 polymorphisms in 80 candidate genes, and we confirmed three of these genes and a larger genomic region with mutant and chromosomal deficiency tests, respectively. Many of these genes could be connected in a single network based on previously known physical and genetic interactions. Candidate genes have known roles in several classic, highly conserved developmental and signaling pathways-EGFR, Wnt, Hippo, and MAPK. The involvement of highly pleiotropic pathway genes suggests that sleep duration in natural populations can be influenced by a wide variety of biological processes, which may be why the purpose of sleep has been so elusive.

Selection for long and short sleep duration in Drosophila melanogaster reveals the complex genetic network underlying natural variation in sleep.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan T Harbison

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Why do some individuals need more sleep than others? Forward mutagenesis screens in flies using engineered mutations have established a clear genetic component to sleep duration, revealing mutants that convey very long or short sleep. Whether such extreme long or short sleep could exist in natural populations was unknown. We applied artificial selection for high and low night sleep duration to an outbred population of Drosophila melanogaster for 13 generations. At the end of the selection procedure, night sleep duration diverged by 9.97 hours in the long and short sleeper populations, and 24-hour sleep was reduced to 3.3 hours in the short sleepers. Neither long nor short sleeper lifespan differed appreciably from controls, suggesting little physiological consequences to being an extreme long or short sleeper. Whole genome sequence data from seven generations of selection revealed several hundred thousand changes in allele frequencies at polymorphic loci across the genome. Combining the data from long and short sleeper populations across generations in a logistic regression implicated 126 polymorphisms in 80 candidate genes, and we confirmed three of these genes and a larger genomic region with mutant and chromosomal deficiency tests, respectively. Many of these genes could be connected in a single network based on previously known physical and genetic interactions. Candidate genes have known roles in several classic, highly conserved developmental and signaling pathways-EGFR, Wnt, Hippo, and MAPK. The involvement of highly pleiotropic pathway genes suggests that sleep duration in natural populations can be influenced by a wide variety of biological processes, which may be why the purpose of sleep has been so elusive.

An Incremental Type-2 Meta-Cognitive Extreme Learning Machine.

Science.gov (United States)

Pratama, Mahardhika; Zhang, Guangquan; Er, Meng Joo; Anavatti, Sreenatha

2017-02-01

Existing extreme learning algorithm have not taken into account four issues: 1) complexity; 2) uncertainty; 3) concept drift; and 4) high dimensionality. A novel incremental type-2 meta-cognitive extreme learning machine (ELM) called evolving type-2 ELM (eT2ELM) is proposed to cope with the four issues in this paper. The eT2ELM presents three main pillars of human meta-cognition: 1) what-to-learn; 2) how-to-learn; and 3) when-to-learn. The what-to-learn component selects important training samples for model updates by virtue of the online certainty-based active learning method, which renders eT2ELM as a semi-supervised classifier. The how-to-learn element develops a synergy between extreme learning theory and the evolving concept, whereby the hidden nodes can be generated and pruned automatically from data streams with no tuning of hidden nodes. The when-to-learn constituent makes use of the standard sample reserved strategy. A generalized interval type-2 fuzzy neural network is also put forward as a cognitive component, in which a hidden node is built upon the interval type-2 multivariate Gaussian function while exploiting a subset of Chebyshev series in the output node. The efficacy of the proposed eT2ELM is numerically validated in 12 data streams containing various concept drifts. The numerical results are confirmed by thorough statistical tests, where the eT2ELM demonstrates the most encouraging numerical results in delivering reliable prediction, while sustaining low complexity.

Temperature extremes in a changing climate: Drivers and feedbacks (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

2013-12-01

Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne

Natural Dietary Phytosterols.

Science.gov (United States)

Racette, Susan B; Lin, Xiaobo; Ma, Lina; Ostlund, Richard E

2015-01-01

Most clinical phytosterol studies are performed by adding purified supplements to smaller phytosterol amounts present in the natural diet. However, natural dietary phytosterols themselves may also have important effects on cholesterol metabolism. Epidemiological work using food frequency questionnaires to estimate dietary intake suggest that extremes of normal consumption may be associated with 3-14% changes in LDL cholesterol. Standardized food databases do not have enough phytosterol values to allow calculation of phytosterol intake for individuals outside of specialized studies. Natural diets contain phytosterol amounts ranging from less than 60 mg/2000 kcal to over 500 mg/2000 kcal. Physiological studies in which whole body cholesterol metabolism is investigated show large effects of natural dietary phytosterols on cholesterol absorption efficiency, cholesterol biosynthesis and cholesterol excretion which exceed the magnitude of changes in LDL cholesterol. The dual effects of natural phytosterols on both LDL-C and whole body cholesterol metabolism need to be considered in relating them to potential protection from coronary heart disease risk.

The SEA complex – the beginning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dokudovskaya S. S.

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The presence of distinctive internal membrane compartments, dynamically connected via selective transport pathways, is a hallmark of eukaryotic cells. Many of the proteins required for formation and maintenance of these compartments share an evolutionary history. We have recently identified a new conserved protein complex – the SEA complex – that possesses proteins with structural characteristics similar to the membrane coating complexes such as the nuclear pore complex (NPC, the COPII vesicle coating complex and HOPS/CORVET tethering complexes. The SEA complex in yeast is dynamically associated to the vacuole. The data on the function of the SEA complex remain extremely limited. Here we will discuss a possible role of the SEA complex based on the data from genetic assays and a number of functional studies in both yeast and other eukaryotes.

Dismounted Complex Blast Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Romney C; Fleming, Mark; Forsberg, Jonathan A; Gordon, Wade T; Nanos, George P; Charlton, Michael T; Ficke, James R

2012-01-01

The severe Dismounted Complex Blast Injury (DCBI) is characterized by high-energy injuries to the bilateral lower extremities (usually proximal transfemoral amputations) and/or upper extremity (usually involving the non-dominant side), in addition to open pelvic injuries, genitourinary, and abdominal trauma. Initial resuscitation and multidisciplinary surgical management appear to be the keys to survival. Definitive treatment follows general principals of open wound management and includes decontamination through aggressive and frequent debridement, hemorrhage control, viable tissue preservation, and appropriate timing of wound closure. These devastating injuries are associated with paradoxically favorable survival rates, but associated injuries and higher amputation levels lead to more difficult reconstructive challenges.

On Impact Dynamics under Complex or Extreme Conditions

KAUST Repository

Kouraytem, Nadia

2016-11-01

The impact of a spherical object onto a surface of a liquid, solid or granular material, is a configuration which occurs in numerous industrial and natural phenomena. The resulting dynamics can produce complex outcomes and often occur on very short time-scales. Their study thereby requires high-speed video imaging, as is done herein. This three-part dissertation investigates widely disparate but kindred impact configurations, where the impacting object is a solid steel sphere, or a molten metal droplet. The substrate, on the other hand, is either granular material, a liquid, or solid ice. Therefore both fluid mechanics and thermodynamics play a key role in some of these dynamics. Part I, investigates the penetration depth of a steel sphere which impacts onto a granular bed containing a mixture of grains of two different sizes. The addition of smaller grains within a bed of larger grains can promote a “lubrication” effect and deeper penetration of the sphere. However, there needs to be enough mass fraction of the smaller grains so that they get lodged between the larger grains and are not simply like isolated rattlers inside the voids between the larger grains. This lubrication occurs even though the addition of the small grains increases the overall packing fraction of the bed. We compare the enhanced penetration for the mixtures to a simple interpolative model based on the results for monodispersed media of the constitutive sizes. The strongest lubrication is observed for large irregular shaped Ottawa sand grains, which are seeded with small spherical glass beads. Part II, tackles the topic of a molten metal drop impacting onto a pool of water. When the drop temperature is far above the boiling temperature of water, a continuous vapor layer can form at the interface between the metal and water, in what is called the Leidenfrost phenomenon. This vapor layer can become unstable forming what is called a vapor explosion, which can break up the molten metal drop

Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacek eWierzchos

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits – conceptually called rock’s habitable architecture. Additionally self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another

Characterization and prediction of extreme events in turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

Fonda, Enrico; Iyer, Kartik P.; Sreenivasan, Katepalli R.

2017-11-01

Extreme events in Nature such as tornadoes, large floods and strong earthquakes are rare but can have devastating consequences. The predictability of these events is very limited at present. Extreme events in turbulence are the very large events in small scales that are intermittent in character. We examine events in energy dissipation rate and enstrophy which are several tens to hundreds to thousands of times the mean value. To this end we use our DNS database of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence with Taylor Reynolds numbers spanning a decade, computed with different small scale resolutions and different box sizes, and study the predictability of these events using machine learning. We start with an aggressive data augmentation to virtually increase the number of these rare events by two orders of magnitude and train a deep convolutional neural network to predict their occurrence in an independent data set. The goal of the work is to explore whether extreme events can be predicted with greater assurance than can be done by conventional methods (e.g., D.A. Donzis & K.R. Sreenivasan, J. Fluid Mech. 647, 13-26, 2010).

Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium

Science.gov (United States)

Büntgen, Ulf; Brázdil, Rudolf; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Hofmann, Jutta; Kontic, Raymond; Kyncl, Tomáš; Pfister, Christian; Chromá, Kateřina; Tegel, Willy

2011-12-01

A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir ( Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962-2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European April-June precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55°N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.

Halonium Ions as Halogen Bond Donors in the Solid State [XL2]Y Complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rissanen, Kari; Haukka, Matti

2015-01-01

The utilization of halogen bonding interactions is one of the most rapidly developing areas of supramolecular chemistry. While the other weak non-covalent interactions and their influence on the structure and chemistry of various molecules, complexes, and materials have been investigated extensively, the understanding, utilizations, and true nature of halogen bonding are still relatively unexplored. Thus its final impact in chemistry in general and in materials science has not yet been fully established. Because of the polarized nature of a Z-X bond (Z=electron-withdrawing atom or moiety and X=halogen atom), such a moiety can act as halogen bond donor when the halogen is polarized enough by the atom/moiety Z. The most studied and utilized halogen bond donor molecules are the perfluorohalocarbons, where Z is a perfluorinated aryl or alkyl moiety and X is either iodine or bromine. Complementing the contemporary halogen bonding research, this chapter reviews the solid state structural chemistry of the most extremely polarized halogen atoms, viz. halonium ions, X+, and discussed them as halogen bond donors in the solid state [XL2]Y complexes (X=halonium ion, Y=any anion).

Extreme cosmos

CERN Document Server

Gaensler, Bryan

2011-01-01

The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Characterization and 454 pyrosequencing of Major Histocompatibility Complex class I genes in the great tit reveal complexity in a passerine system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sepil Irem

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The critical role of Major Histocompatibility Complex (Mhc genes in disease resistance and their highly polymorphic nature make them exceptional candidates for studies investigating genetic effects on survival, mate choice and conservation. Species that harbor many Mhc loci and high allelic diversity are particularly intriguing as they are potentially under strong selection and studies of such species provide valuable information as to the mechanisms maintaining Mhc diversity. However comprehensive genotyping of complex multilocus systems has been a major challenge to date with the result that little is known about the consequences of this complexity in terms of fitness effects and disease resistance. Results In this study, we genotyped the Mhc class I exon 3 of the great tit (Parus major from two nest-box breeding populations near Oxford, UK that have been monitored for decades. Characterization of Mhc class I exon 3 was adopted and bidirectional sequencing was carried using the 454 sequencing platform. Full analysis of sequences through a stepwise variant validation procedure allowed reliable typing of more than 800 great tits based on 214,357 reads; from duplicates we estimated the repeatability of typing as 0.94. A total of 862 alleles were detected, and the presence of at least 16 functional loci was shown - the highest number characterized in a wild bird species. Finally, the functional alleles were grouped into 17 supertypes based on their antigen binding affinities. Conclusions We found extreme complexity at the Mhc class I of the great tit both in terms of allelic diversity and gene number. The presence of many functional loci was shown, together with a pseudogene family and putatively non-functional alleles; there was clear evidence that functional alleles were under strong balancing selection. This study is the first step towards an in-depth analysis of this gene complex in this species, which will help

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Novel Reactivity Of The Cationic Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, J.; Dash, A.K.; Eisen, AM.; Berthet, J.C.; Ephritikhine, M.

2002-01-01

The catalytic chemistry of electrophilic d 0 /f organometallic complexes is nowadays under intense investigation, reaching a high level of sophistication. General aspects concerning these complexes are concentrated for most studies to the functionalization of unsaturated organic molecules. To cite an instance, the actinide-promoted oligomerization of terminal alkynes is of essential present concern since it may introduce to a diversity of organic enynes and oligoacetylene products that are valuable synthons for the synthesis of natural products. Enynes are the simplest oligomerization products of alkynes. We have demonstrated that organoactinides complexes of the type [Cp* 2 AnMe 2 AnMe 2 ] (Cp* = C 5 Me 5 ; An = U, Th) are active catalysts for the linear oligomerization of terminal alkynes and the extent of oligomerization was found to be strongly dependent on the electronic and steric properties of the alkyne substituents. Bulky alkynes were reacted with high regioselectivity toward dimer and/or trimers whereas for non-bulky alkynes, these compounds were transformed into oligomers with a total deficiency of regioselectivity. The addition of primary amines to the catalytic cycle, for An = Th, granted the chemoselective formation of dimers, chemoselectively, whereas for An = U, this control was not succeeded. In distinction to the neutral organoactinide complexes, homogeneous cationic d 0 /f n actinide complexes have been used as in the homogeneous polymerization of olefins as extremely active catalysts. Hence, the catalytic alkyne oligomerization is a opportune route to explore insertions and σ-bond metathesis reactivity of complexes. We have recently shown that the reaction of terminal alkynes (RC≡CH), promoted by [(Et 2 N) 3 U][BPh 4 ], in toluene, produces efficiently mostly the gem dimers (for R = Me, i Pr and n Bu) as the major products, whereas for bulky alkynes (R = t MS or t Bu) small amounts of the cis dimer was concomitantly obtained. A plausible

Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

Science.gov (United States)

Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

2017-11-01

The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

Behavior under Extreme Conditions: The Titanic Disaster

OpenAIRE

Bruno S. Frey; David A. Savage; Benno Torgler

2011-01-01

During the night of April 14, 1912, the RMS Titanic collided with an iceberg on her maiden voyage. Two hours and 40 minutes later she sank, resulting in the loss of 1,501 lives—more than two-thirds of her 2,207 passengers and crew. This remains one of the deadliest peacetime maritime disasters in history and by far the most famous. For social scientists, evidence about how people behaved as the Titanic sunk offers a quasi-natural field experiment to explore behavior under extreme conditions o...

Extreme disorder in an ultrahigh-affinity protein complex

Science.gov (United States)

Borgia, Alessandro; Borgia, Madeleine B.; Bugge, Katrine; Kissling, Vera M.; Heidarsson, Pétur O.; Fernandes, Catarina B.; Sottini, Andrea; Soranno, Andrea; Buholzer, Karin J.; Nettels, Daniel; Kragelund, Birthe B.; Best, Robert B.; Schuler, Benjamin

2018-03-01

Molecular communication in biology is mediated by protein interactions. According to the current paradigm, the specificity and affinity required for these interactions are encoded in the precise complementarity of binding interfaces. Even proteins that are disordered under physiological conditions or that contain large unstructured regions commonly interact with well-structured binding sites on other biomolecules. Here we demonstrate the existence of an unexpected interaction mechanism: the two intrinsically disordered human proteins histone H1 and its nuclear chaperone prothymosin-α associate in a complex with picomolar affinity, but fully retain their structural disorder, long-range flexibility and highly dynamic character. On the basis of closely integrated experiments and molecular simulations, we show that the interaction can be explained by the large opposite net charge of the two proteins, without requiring defined binding sites or interactions between specific individual residues. Proteome-wide sequence analysis suggests that this interaction mechanism may be abundant in eukaryotes.

Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Resenhoeft, T.

2006-07-01

Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

Complexity in Individual Trajectories toward Online Extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Cao

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Society faces a fundamental global problem of understanding which individuals are currently developing strong support for some extremist entity such as ISIS (Islamic State, even if they never end up doing anything in the real world. The importance of online connectivity in developing intent has been confirmed by recent case studies of already convicted terrorists. Here we use ideas from Complexity to identify dynamical patterns in the online trajectories that individuals take toward developing a high level of extremist support, specifically, for ISIS. Strong memory effects emerge among individuals whose transition is fastest and hence may become “out of the blue” threats in the real world. A generalization of diagrammatic expansion theory helps quantify these characteristics, including the impact of changes in geographical location, and can facilitate prediction of future risks. By quantifying the trajectories that individuals follow on their journey toward expressing high levels of pro-ISIS support—irrespective of whether they then carry out a real-world attack or not—our findings can help move safety debates beyond reliance on static watch-list identifiers such as ethnic background or immigration status and/or postfact interviews with already convicted individuals. Given the broad commonality of social media platforms, our results likely apply quite generally; for example, even on Telegram where (like Twitter there is no built-in group feature as in our study, individuals tend to collectively build and pass through the so-called super-group accounts.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

How extreme is enough to cause a threshold response of ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, S.; Zhang, F.; Yang, Q.; Song, B.; Sun, J.

2017-12-01

Precipitation is a primary determinant of terrestrial ecosystem productivity over much of the globe. Recent studies have shown asymmetric or threshold responses of ecosystem productivity to precipitation gradient. However, it's not clear how extreme is enough to cause a threshold response of ecosystem. We conducted a global meta-analysis of precipitation experiments, a site level precipitation gradient experiment, and a remote sensing data mining on the relationship between precipitation extreme vs NDVI extreme. The meta-analysis shows that ANPP, BNPP, NEE, and other carbon cycle variables, showed similar response magnitudes to either precipitation increase or decrease when precipitation levels were normalized to the medium value of treatments (40%) across all the studies. Overall, the response ratios of these variables were linearly correlated with changes in precipitation amounts and soil water content. In the field gradient study with treatments of 1/12, 1/8. 1/4, 1/2, control, and 5/4 of ambient precipitation, the threshold of NPP, SR, NEE occurred when precipitation was reduced to the level of 1/8-1/12 of ambient precipitation. This means that only extreme drought can induce a threshold response of ecosystem. The regional remote sensing data showed that climate extremes with yearly low precipitation from 1982 to 2013 rarely cause extreme responses of vegetation, further suggesting that it is very difficult to detect threshold responses to natural climatic fluctuation. Our three studies together indicate that asymmetrical responses of vegetation to precipitation are likely detected, but only in very extreme precipitation events.

Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Tett, Simon F. B.; Yan, Zhongwei; Feng, Jinming

2018-01-01

Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and frosty nights in eastern China for the years 1960-2012 by using an optimal fingerprinting method. The observed long-term trends in the regional mean frequencies of these four indices were +2.36, +1.62, -0.94, -3.02 days decade-1. The models performed better in simulating the observed frequency change in daytime extreme temperatures than nighttime ones. Anthropogenic influences are detectable in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices. The influence of natural forcings could not be detected robustly in any indices. Further analysis found that the effects of GHGs changed the frequencies of summer days (tropical nights, icy days, frosty nights) by +3.48 ± 1.45 (+2.99 ± 1.35, -2.52 ± 1.28, -4.11 ± 1.48) days decade-1. Other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominated by anthropogenic aerosols) offset the GHG effect and changed the frequencies of these four indices by -1.53 ± 0.78, -1.49 ± 0.94, +1.84 ± 1.07, +1.45 ± 1.26 days decade-1, respectively. Little influence of natural forcings was found in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices.

Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

2016-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

Trends and Extremes Analysis of Daily Weather Data from a Site in the Capitanata Plain (Southern Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domenico Vitale

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The impacts of the climate change for agriculture is an ambitious and unresolved topic due to the complexity of the natural phenomena. The high variability of the Mediterranean basin does not allow us to generalize with enough certainty the results obtained from other researches and other locations. Therefore, a site specific analysis in Capitanata plain was conducted. The aim is to provide a detailed picture of recent change in climate regime in one of the most important agricultural area of South Italy. Climate analysis was carried out and several indices of extreme events were studied on the basis of temperature and precipitation observations registered at experimental station ‘Podere 124’ (CRA-SCA. The period under study is 1979-2008. Increasing trends were identified for the summer season with an intensification of the number of heat waves.

Committed Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events in the United States (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Preston, B. L.

2013-12-01

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes driven by the concentration of population and wealth on hazardous landscapes. As geographic patterns of demography and economic development are associated with strong path dependence, the United States is ';locked-in' to future increases in exposure and associated economic losses in the decades ahead, irrespective of the influence of climate change. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast, particularly coastal and urban counties and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Annualized county-level losses from 1960-2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. At more local scales, however, such as rapidly growing metropolitan areas, losses are anticipated to grow more rapidly. As such, improving understanding of the societal implications of the extreme weather events of the future

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Science.gov (United States)

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

Science.gov (United States)

Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

2014-01-01

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amélie Lescroël

Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ilg, Christiane; Dziock, Frank; Foeckler, Francis; Follner, Klaus; Gerisch, Michael; Glaeser, Judith; Rink, Anke; Schanowski, Arno; Scholz, Mathias; Deichner, Oskar; Henle, Klaus

2008-09-01

Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.

Physics of condensed matter at extreme conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, M.

1988-01-01

The study of matter under extreme conditions is a highly interdisciplinary subject with broad applications to materials science, geophysics and astrophysics. High-pressure properties are studied in the laboratory using static and dynamic techniques. The two differ drastically in the methods of generating and measuring pressure and in the fundamentally different nature of the final compressed state. This article covers a very broad range of conditions, intended to present an overview of important recent developments and to emphasize the behavior of materials and the kinds of properties now being studied

Controlling spatio-temporal extreme events by decreasing the localized energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Lin; Xu Wei; Li Zhanguo; Zhou Bingchang

2011-01-01

The problem of controlling extreme events in spatially extended dynamical systems is investigated in this Letter. Based on observations of the system state, the control technique we proposed locally decreases the spatial energy of the amplitude in the vicinity of the highest burst, without needs of any knowledge or prediction of the system model. Considering the specific Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, we provide theoretical analysis for designing the localized state feedback controller. More exactly, a simple control law by varying a damping parameter at control region is chose to achieve the control. Numerical simulations and statistic analysis demonstrate that extreme events can be efficiently suppressed by our strategy. In particular, the cost of the control and the tolerant time delay in applying the control is considered in detail. - Highlights: → We propose a local control scheme to suppress spatio-temporal extreme events. → The control is address by decreasing the spatial energy of the system locally. → The detail control law is to apply localized state feedback based on observations. → The cost of the control increases with the size of the control region exponentially. → The tolerant delay of the control is about 5-6 times of lifetime of extreme events.

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Humanism and nature – some reflections on a complex relationship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jörn Rüsen

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The paper starts with a systematical analysis of the interrelationship of humanism and nature. It proceeds to a historical reconstruction of this relationship in the development of Western humanism from ancient Rome via Renaissance till the Enlightenment of the 18th century. In both respects the result of the analysis is the same: The Western tradition of humanism is characterised by a gap between an emphasis on the cultural quality of human life on the one hand and nature on the other one. Men are entitled to dominate and govern nature and use it for their purpose. This fits into an idea of a progressing destructive relationship between man and nature in the West. On the other the tradition of humanism has put the gap between man and nature into a harmonising cosmological or theological context. In this context a simple destructive relationship between man and nature is not possible. The humanism of today has to pick up the challenge of the ecological crisis and to refer to its tradition where man and nature are mediated into a meaningful and sense-bearing interrelationship. Instead of simply referring to the traditional cosmology a convincing idea of this mediation or even synthesis can only be made plausible by referring to the already pre-given synthesis between nature and culture, the human body.

Exotic plant species around Jeongeup Research Complex and RFT industrial complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jin Kyu; Cha, Min Kyoung; Ryu, Tae Ho; Lee, Yun Jong; Kim, Jin Hong

2015-01-01

In Shinjeong-dong of Jeongeup, there are three government-supported research institutes and an RFT industrial complex which is currently being established. Increased human activities can affect flora and fauna as a man-made pressure onto the region. As a baseline study, status of exotic plants was investigated prior to a full operation of the RFT industrial complex. A total of 54 species and 1 variety of naturalized or introduced plants were found in the study area. Among them, three species (Ambrosia artemisifolia var. elatior, Rumex acetocella and Aster pilosus) belong to 'nuisance species', and four species (Phytolacca americana, Iopomoea hederacea, Ereechtites hieracifolia and Rudbeckia laciniata) to ‘monitor species’ designated by the ministry of Environment. Some of naturalized trees and plants were intentionally introduced in this area, while others naturally immigrated. Physalis angulata seems to immigrate in the study area in the form of mixture with animal feeds as its distribution coincided with the transportation route of the animal feeds. Liquidambar styraciflua is amenable to the ecological investigation on the possible expansion of the species to the nearby Naejang National Park as its leave shape and autumn color are very similar to those of maple trees. The number of naturalized plants around the RFT industrial complex will increase with an increase in floating population, in human activities in association with constructions of factories and operations of the complex. The result of this study provides baseline data for assessing the ecological change of the region according to the operation of the RFT industrial complex

Exotic plant species around Jeongeup Research Complex and RFT industrial complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jin Kyu; Cha, Min Kyoung; Ryu, Tae Ho; Lee, Yun Jong; Kim, Jin Hong [Advanced Radiation Technology Institute, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Jeongeup(Korea, Republic of)

2015-08-15

In Shinjeong-dong of Jeongeup, there are three government-supported research institutes and an RFT industrial complex which is currently being established. Increased human activities can affect flora and fauna as a man-made pressure onto the region. As a baseline study, status of exotic plants was investigated prior to a full operation of the RFT industrial complex. A total of 54 species and 1 variety of naturalized or introduced plants were found in the study area. Among them, three species (Ambrosia artemisifolia var. elatior, Rumex acetocella and Aster pilosus) belong to 'nuisance species', and four species (Phytolacca americana, Iopomoea hederacea, Ereechtites hieracifolia and Rudbeckia laciniata) to ‘monitor species’ designated by the ministry of Environment. Some of naturalized trees and plants were intentionally introduced in this area, while others naturally immigrated. Physalis angulata seems to immigrate in the study area in the form of mixture with animal feeds as its distribution coincided with the transportation route of the animal feeds. Liquidambar styraciflua is amenable to the ecological investigation on the possible expansion of the species to the nearby Naejang National Park as its leave shape and autumn color are very similar to those of maple trees. The number of naturalized plants around the RFT industrial complex will increase with an increase in floating population, in human activities in association with constructions of factories and operations of the complex. The result of this study provides baseline data for assessing the ecological change of the region according to the operation of the RFT industrial complex.

Drop amalgam voltammetric study of lead complexation by natural ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A study of inorganic complexation of lead using drop amalgam voltammetry is described. The study has been carried out in simulated salt lake water and at ionic strength of 7.35 M, the predetermined ionic strength of Lake Katwe. The complexation of lead with the simple ligands (Cl-, CO32-) created anodic waves and the ...

INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for the estimation of high spatio-temporal quantiles

KAUST Repository

Opitz, Thomas; Huser, Raphaë l; Bakka, Haakon; Rue, Haavard

2018-01-01

approach is based on a Bayesian generalized additive modeling framework that is designed to estimate complex trends in marginal extremes over space and time. First, we estimate a high non-stationary threshold using a gamma distribution for precipitation

Suction is kid's play: extremely fast suction in newborn seahorses

Science.gov (United States)

Van Wassenbergh, Sam; Roos, Gert; Genbrugge, Annelies; Leysen, Heleen; Aerts, Peter; Adriaens, Dominique; Herrel, Anthony

2009-01-01

Ongoing anatomical development typically results in a gradual maturation of the feeding movements from larval to adult fishes. Adult seahorses are known to capture prey by rotating their long-snouted head extremely quickly towards prey, followed by powerful suction. This type of suction is powered by elastic recoil and requires very precise coordination of the movements of the associated feeding structures, making it an all-or-none phenomenon. Here, we show that newborn Hippocampus reidi are able to successfully feed using an extremely rapid and powerful snout rotation combined with a high-volume suction, surpassing that observed in adult seahorses. An inverse dynamic analysis shows that an elastic recoil mechanism is also used to power head rotation in newborn H. reidi. This illustrates how extreme levels of performance in highly complex musculoskeletal systems can be present at birth given a delayed birth and rapid development of functionally important structures. The fact that the head skeleton of newborn seahorses is still largely cartilaginous may not be problematic because the hydrodynamic stress on the rotating snout appeared considerably lower than in adult syngnathids. PMID:19324657

Plutonium in nature; Le plutonium dans la nature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Madic, C.

1994-12-31

Plutonium in nature comes from natural sources and anthropogenic ones. Plutonium at the earth surface comes principally from anthropogenic sources. It is easily detectable in environment. The plutonium behaviour in environment is complex. It seems necessary for the future to reduce releases in environment, to improve predictive models of plutonium behaviour in geosphere, to precise biological impact of anthropogenic plutonium releases.

Weather extremes could affect agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2012-05-01

As Earth's climate warms, agricultural producers will need to adapt. Changes, especially increases in extreme events, are already having an impact on food production, according to speakers at a 1 May session on agriculture and food security at the AGU Science Policy Conference. Christopher Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science of Washington, D. C., pointed out the complex factors that come into play in understanding food security, including spatially varying controls and stresses, incomplete models, and the potential for threshold responses. Factors that are likely to cause problems include increasing population; increasing preference for meat, which needs more land and energy inputs to produce; climate change; and increasing use of agricultural lands for biomass energy.

Rapid formation of complexity in the total synthesis of natural products enabled by oxabicyclo[2.2.1]heptene building blocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Schindler, Corinna S; Carreira, Erick M

2009-11-01

This critical review showcases examples of rapid formation of complexity in total syntheses starting from 7-oxabicyclo[2.2.1]hept-5-ene derivatives. An overview of methods allowing synthetic access to these building blocks is provided and their application in recently developed synthetic transformations to structurally complex systems is illustrated. In addition, the facile access to a novel oxabicyclo[2.2.1]heptene derived building block is presented which significantly enlarges the possibilities of previously known chemical transformations and is highlighted in the enantioselective route to the core of the banyaside and suomilide natural products (107 references).

How hard is it to find extreme Nash equilibria in network congestion games?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gassner, E.; Hatzl, J.; Krumke, S.O.; Sperber, H.; Woeginger, G.J.; Papadimitriou, C.; Zhang, S.

2008-01-01

We study the complexity of finding extreme pure Nash equilibria in symmetric (unweighted) network congestion games. In our context best and worst equilibria are those with minimum respectively maximum makespan. On series-parallel graphs a worst Nash equilibrium can be found by a Greedy approach

A spectroscopic and computational study of Al(III) complexes in cryolite melts: Effect of cation nature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazmutdinov, Renat R.; Zinkicheva, Tamara T.; Vassiliev, Sergey Yu.; Glukhov, Dmitrii V.; Tsirlina, Galina A.; Probst, Michael

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We investigate Li, Na and K cryolite melts by Raman spectroscopy and dft. ► A slight red shift of main Raman peaks is observed in the row Li + , Na + , K + . ► A decrease of the half-widths of peaks is observed in the same row. ► Fluoroaluminates and their complexation kinetics play an important role. - Abstract: Lithium, sodium and potassium cryolite melts are probed by Raman spectroscopy in a wide range of the melt composition. The experimental data demonstrate a slight red shift of main peaks and a decrease of their half-widths in the row Li + , Na + , K + . Quantum chemical modelling of the systems is performed at the density functional theory level. The ionic environment is found to play a crucial role in the energy of fluoroaluminates. Potential energy surfaces describing the formation/dissociation of certain complex species, as well as model Raman spectra are constructed and compared with those obtained recently for sodium containing cryolite melts (R.R. Nazmutdinov, et al., Spectrochim, Acta A 75 (2010) 1244.). The calculations show that the cation nature affects the geometry of the ionic associates as well as the equilibrium and kinetics of the complexation processes. This enables to interpret both original experimental data and those reported in literature

Experimental analysis of the natural circulation phenomenon at the monophase system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Thiago A. dos; Stefanni, Giovanni Laranjo de; Conti, Thadeu das Neves

2011-01-01

The present work study the phenomenology of the natural circulation, which is the flow circulation without help of any mechanical device. One of the possible application of this study would be a new way of nuclear reactor cooling, and this practice is fundamental for the maintenance and safe of the reactor. For this study, a therma balance in the circuit was performed, which consist of evaluate the behavior of the circuit, observing if not exist excessive energy loss. The balance was made only for power values considered small (up to 4000 W), were the fluid is at the monophasic state. This methodology is extremely important for the evaluation of the equipment and determining therefore if the energy is conserved in order to work with a more complex system such as the two-phase one

Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-11-01

Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

2017-12-01

Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

Report from the 2nd Workshop on Extremely Large Databases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacek Becla

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The complexity and sophistication of large scale analytics in science and industry have advanced dramatically in recent years. Analysts are struggling to use complex techniques such as time series analysis and classification algorithms because their familiar, powerful tools are not scalable and cannot effectively use scalable database systems. The 2nd Extremely Large Databases (XLDB workshop was organized to understand these issues, examine their implications, and brainstorm possible solutions. The design of a new open source science database, SciDB that emerged from the first workshop in this series was also debated. This paper is the final report of the discussions and activities at this workshop.

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

Synthesis and anticancer activity of silver(I)-N-heterocyclic carbene complexes derived from the natural xanthine products caffeine, theophylline and theobromine.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamed, Heba A; Lake, Benjamin R M; Laing, Thomas; Phillips, Roger M; Willans, Charlotte E

2015-04-28

A new library of silver(I)-N-heterocyclic carbene complexes prepared from the natural products caffeine, theophylline and theobromine is reported. The complexes have been fully characterised using a combination of NMR spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, elemental analysis and X-ray diffraction analysis. Furthermore, the hydrophobicity of the complexes has been measured. The silver(I)-N-heterocyclic carbenes have been evaluated for their antiproliferative properties against a range of cancer cell lines of different histological types, and compared to cisplatin. The data shows different profiles of response when compared to cisplatin in the same panel of cells, indicating a different mechanism of action. Furthermore, it appears that the steric effect of the ligand and the hydrophobicity of the complex both play a role in the chemosensitivity of these compounds, with greater steric bulk and greater hydrophilicity delivering higher cytotoxicity.

Preparation and response to radiation and nuclear emergencies in case of natural disasters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vegueria, Pablo Jerez; Lafortune, J.F.

2013-01-01

The impact of natural disasters in cities and communities has grown by different causes in different parts of the world. There are several examples of the impact that have caused extreme natural events in facilities and activities in which ionizing radiation are used. The recent example of the accident at the nuclear power plant of Fukushima Daichi with release of radioactive substances to the environment caused by an earthquake and a tsunami show the need of the increasing improvement in the safety of facilities and activities that use ionizing radiation and radioactive materials in general. Planning and response to events of this nature is another aspect that is important and needs attention. The IAEA documents offer a comprehensive and effective guide to achieve an appropriate degree of readiness to respond to nuclear and radiological emergencies in any situation. However, there are specific challenges for planning and response posed a radiological emergency caused by an extreme natural event or occurring simultaneously with this. The present work deals with essential aspects to take into account by the authorities who coordinate the planning and response to radiological emergencies to deal with extreme natural events

Communication Analysis of Information Complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Malik, M. F.

Communication analysis is a tool for perceptual assessment of existing or projected information complexes, i.e., an established reality perceived by one or many humans. An information complex could be of a physical nature, such as a building, landscape, city street; or of a pure informational nature, such as a film, television program,…

Liquid Membranes as a Tool for Chemical Speciation of Metals in Natural Waters: Organic and Inorganic Complexes of Nickel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Vergel

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The different species of nickel present in natural waters exhibit different transport behaviour through bulk liquid membranes (BLMs. This fact has been used to design and optimise a separation/pre-concentration system applicable to separate labile and non-labile nickel fractions. A hydrazone derivative—1,2-cyclohexanedione bis-benzoyl-hydrazone (1,2-CHBBH dissolved in toluene/dimethyl formamide (2% DMF—was used as a chemical carrier of nickel species, from an aqueous source solution (sample to a receiving acidic solution. Both chemical and hydrodynamic conditions controlling the transport system were studied and optimised. Under optimum conditions, variations in the transport of nickel ions as a function of organic (humic acids and inorganic (chloride ions ligands were studied. Relationships between the permeability coefficient (P or recovery efficiency (%R and the concentrations of ligands and nickel species were analysed using Winhumic V software. A negative correlation between P and the concentration of organic nickel complexes was found, suggesting that only labile nickel species are transported through the liquid membrane, with non-labile complexes remaining in the water sample; allowing for their separation and subsequent quantification in natural waters.

Liquid Membranes as a Tool for Chemical Speciation of Metals in Natural Waters: Organic and Inorganic Complexes of Nickel.

Science.gov (United States)

Vergel, Cristina; Mendiguchía, Carolina; Moreno, Carlos

2018-04-15

The different species of nickel present in natural waters exhibit different transport behaviour through bulk liquid membranes (BLMs). This fact has been used to design and optimise a separation/pre-concentration system applicable to separate labile and non-labile nickel fractions. A hydrazone derivative-1,2-cyclohexanedione bis-benzoyl-hydrazone (1,2-CHBBH) dissolved in toluene/dimethyl formamide (2% DMF)-was used as a chemical carrier of nickel species, from an aqueous source solution (sample) to a receiving acidic solution. Both chemical and hydrodynamic conditions controlling the transport system were studied and optimised. Under optimum conditions, variations in the transport of nickel ions as a function of organic (humic acids) and inorganic (chloride ions) ligands were studied. Relationships between the permeability coefficient ( P ) or recovery efficiency (%R) and the concentrations of ligands and nickel species were analysed using Winhumic V software. A negative correlation between P and the concentration of organic nickel complexes was found, suggesting that only labile nickel species are transported through the liquid membrane, with non-labile complexes remaining in the water sample; allowing for their separation and subsequent quantification in natural waters.

The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-07-01

This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

OpenAIRE

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic stations (airports) of North Germany (Bremen, Hamburg and Hannover) were considered for the construction of time series of daily maximum wind speeds. All daily wind extremes were found to be linked...

Gold-catalyzed stereoselective cycloisomerization of allenoic acids for two types of common natural γ-butyrolactones.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jing; Fu, Chunling; Ma, Shengming

2018-04-25

γ-(E)-Vinylic and γ-alkylic γ-butyrolactones are two different types of lactones existing extensively in animals and plants and many of them show interesting biological activities. Nature makes alkylic γ-butyrolactones by many different enzymatic lactonization processes. Scientists have been mimicking the natural strategy by developing new catalysts. However, direct and efficient access to γ-(E)-vinylic γ-butyrolactones is still extremely limited. Here, we wish to present our modular allene approach, which provides an efficient asymmetric approach to (E)-vinylic γ-butyrolactones from allenoic acids by identifying a new gold complex as the catalyst. Based on this cycloisomerization strategy, the first syntheses of racemic xestospongiene and xestospongienes E, F, G, and H have been realized and the absolute configurations of the chiral centers in xestospongienes E and F have been revised. In addition, by applying a C-O bond cleavage-free hydrogenation, the syntheses of naturally occurring γ-alkylic γ-lactones, (R)-4-tetradecalactone, (S)-4-tetradecalactone, (R)-γ-palmitolactone, and (R)-4-decalactone, have also been achieved.

Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

2018-02-01

The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

Science.gov (United States)

Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-01-01

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Euglena in time: Evolution, control of central metabolic processes and multi-domain proteins in carbohydrate and natural product biochemistry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis C. O’Neill

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Euglena gracilis is a eukaryotic microalgae that has been the subject of scientific study for hundreds of years. It has a complex evolutionary history, with traces of at least four endosymbiotic genomes and extensive horizontal gene transfer. Given the importance of Euglena in terms of evolutionary cell biology and its unique taxonomic position, we initiated a de novo transcriptome sequencing project in order to understand this intriguing organism. By analysing the proteins encoded in this transcriptome, we can identify an extremely complex metabolic capacity, rivalling that of multicellular organisms. Many genes have been acquired from what are now very distantly related species. Herein we consider the biology of Euglena in different time frames, from evolution through control of cell biology to metabolic processes associated with carbohydrate and natural products biochemistry.

Holographic complexity of cold hyperbolic black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbón, José L.F.; Martín-García, Javier

2015-01-01

AdS black holes with hyperbolic horizons provide strong-coupling descriptions of thermal CFT states on hyperboloids. The low-temperature limit of these systems is peculiar. In this note we show that, in addition to a large ground state degeneracy, these states also have an anomalously large holographic complexity, scaling logarithmically with the temperature. We speculate on whether this fact generalizes to other systems whose extreme infrared regime is formally controlled by Conformal Quantum Mechanics, such as various instances of near-extremal charged black holes.

Relevance of land forcings and feedbacks in the attribution of climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.

2014-12-01

Land forcings and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system, in particular for the occurrence of climate extremes. Recent investigations have for instance highlighted the impacts of soil moisture-climate interactions for the development of droughts and heat waves (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, forcing from land use and land cover changes through modified albedo or turbulent fluxes can also affect the temperature variability in summer (Davin et al. 2014). These effects are important for better understanding the relationships between climate forcing and regional climate changes, and appear relevant for a recent discrepancy between trends in global mean temperature vs hot extremes over land (Seneviratne et al. 2014). This presentation will provide an overview on the underlying processes and on possible approaches for their consideration in attribution research. References:- Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, T. Wang, 2014: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Published ahead of print June 23, 2014.- Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.- Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2013: Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydr. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765-1781, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013- Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230.- Seneviratne, S.I., et al

Complexity-aware simple modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Schiavon, Mariana; El-Samad, Hana

2018-02-26

Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical Simulation of the Propagation of Hydraulic and Natural Fracture Using Dijkstra’s Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanfang Wu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Utilization of hydraulic-fracturing technology is dramatically increasing in exploitation of natural gas extraction. However the prediction of the configuration of propagated hydraulic fracture is extremely challenging. This paper presents a numerical method of obtaining the configuration of the propagated hydraulic fracture into discrete natural fracture network system. The method is developed on the basis of weighted fracture which is derived in combination of Dijkstra’s algorithm energy theory and vector method. Numerical results along with experimental data demonstrated that proposed method is capable of predicting the propagated hydraulic fracture configuration reasonably with high computation efficiency. Sensitivity analysis reveals a number of interesting observation results: the shortest path weight value decreases with increasing of fracture density and length, and increases with increasing of the angle between fractures to the maximum principal stress direction. Our method is helpful for evaluating the complexity of the discrete fracture network, to obtain the extension direction of the fracture.

Multiobjective generalized extremal optimization algorithm for simulation of daylight illuminants

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Srividya Ravindra; Kurian, Ciji Pearl; Gomes-Borges, Marcos Eduardo

2017-10-01

Daylight illuminants are widely used as references for color quality testing and optical vision testing applications. Presently used daylight simulators make use of fluorescent bulbs that are not tunable and occupy more space inside the quality testing chambers. By designing a spectrally tunable LED light source with an optimal number of LEDs, cost, space, and energy can be saved. This paper describes an application of the generalized extremal optimization (GEO) algorithm for selection of the appropriate quantity and quality of LEDs that compose the light source. The multiobjective approach of this algorithm tries to get the best spectral simulation with minimum fitness error toward the target spectrum, correlated color temperature (CCT) the same as the target spectrum, high color rendering index (CRI), and luminous flux as required for testing applications. GEO is a global search algorithm based on phenomena of natural evolution and is especially designed to be used in complex optimization problems. Several simulations have been conducted to validate the performance of the algorithm. The methodology applied to model the LEDs, together with the theoretical basis for CCT and CRI calculation, is presented in this paper. A comparative result analysis of M-GEO evolutionary algorithm with the Levenberg-Marquardt conventional deterministic algorithm is also presented.

Natural radioactivity distribution images and their educational uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Chizuo; Sumi, Tetsuo; Miyahara, Hiroshi; Uritani, Akira; Nishina, Kojiro

1999-01-01

Distribution images of natural radioactivities in vegetables, meat and porcelain works were obtained by use of Imaging Plate with very high sensitivity to radiations. A brochure titled 'Natural Radiations through Naked Eyes' was published in both Japanese and English which included the images mentioned above. In this paper, the method to obtain the distribution images of extremely low level natural radioactivity, the content of the brochure and the effect of it to the public are described. (author)

Natural radioactivity distribution images and their educational uses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mori, Chizuo; Sumi, Tetsuo [Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Aichi (Japan); Miyahara, Hiroshi; Uritani, Akira; Nishina, Kojiro

1999-09-01

Distribution images of natural radioactivities in vegetables, meat and porcelain works were obtained by use of Imaging Plate with very high sensitivity to radiations. A brochure titled 'Natural Radiations through Naked Eyes' was published in both Japanese and English which included the images mentioned above. In this paper, the method to obtain the distribution images of extremely low level natural radioactivity, the content of the brochure and the effect of it to the public are described. (author)

Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GRAVES, C.E.

2001-01-01

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field

Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

CERN Document Server

Graves, C E

2001-01-01

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field.

Upper Extremity Injuries in Tennis Players: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Kevin C; Lark, Meghan E

2017-02-01

Upper extremity tennis injuries are most commonly characterized as overuse injuries to the wrist, elbow, and shoulder. The complex anatomy of these structures and their interaction with biomechanical properties of tennis strokes contributes to the diagnostic challenges. A thorough understanding of tennis kinetics, in combination with the current literature surrounding diagnostic and treatment methods, will improve clinical decision-making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

DNA variation of the mammalian major histocompatibility complex reflects genomic diversity and population history

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuhki, Naoya; O' Brien, S.J. (National Cancer Institute, Frederick, MD (USA))

1990-01-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a multigene complex of tightly linked homologous genes that encode cell surface antigens that play a key role in immune regulation and response to foreign antigens. In most species, MHC gene products display extreme antigenic polymorphism, and their variability has been interpreted to reflect an adaptive strategy for accommodating rapidly evolving infectious agents that periodically afflict natural populations. Determination of the extent of MHC variation has been limited to populations in which skin grafting is feasible or for which serological reagents have been developed. The authors present here a quantitative analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism of MHC class I genes in several mammalian species (cats, rodents, humans) known to have very different levels of genetic diversity based on functional MHC assays and on allozyme surveys. When homologous class I probes were employed, a notable concordance was observed between the extent of MHC restriction fragment variation and functional MHC variation detected by skin grafts or genome-wide diversity estimated by allozyme screens. These results confirm the genetically depauperate character of the African cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus, and the Asiatic lion, Panthera leo persica; further, they support the use of class I MHC molecular reagents in estimating the extent and character of genetic diversity in natural populations.

DNA variation of the mammalian major histocompatibility complex reflects genomic diversity and population history

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuhki, Naoya; O'Brien, S.J.

1990-01-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a multigene complex of tightly linked homologous genes that encode cell surface antigens that play a key role in immune regulation and response to foreign antigens. In most species, MHC gene products display extreme antigenic polymorphism, and their variability has been interpreted to reflect an adaptive strategy for accommodating rapidly evolving infectious agents that periodically afflict natural populations. Determination of the extent of MHC variation has been limited to populations in which skin grafting is feasible or for which serological reagents have been developed. The authors present here a quantitative analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism of MHC class I genes in several mammalian species (cats, rodents, humans) known to have very different levels of genetic diversity based on functional MHC assays and on allozyme surveys. When homologous class I probes were employed, a notable concordance was observed between the extent of MHC restriction fragment variation and functional MHC variation detected by skin grafts or genome-wide diversity estimated by allozyme screens. These results confirm the genetically depauperate character of the African cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus, and the Asiatic lion, Panthera leo persica; further, they support the use of class I MHC molecular reagents in estimating the extent and character of genetic diversity in natural populations

Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

2014-01-01

Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial......., precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

Combinatorial synthesis of natural products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, John

2002-01-01

Combinatorial syntheses allow production of compound libraries in an expeditious and organized manner immediately applicable for high-throughput screening. Natural products possess a pedigree to justify quality and appreciation in drug discovery and development. Currently, we are seeing a rapid...... increase in application of natural products in combinatorial chemistry and vice versa. The therapeutic areas of infectious disease and oncology still dominate but many new areas are emerging. Several complex natural products have now been synthesised by solid-phase methods and have created the foundation...... for preparation of combinatorial libraries. In other examples, natural products or intermediates have served as building blocks or scaffolds in the synthesis of complex natural products, bioactive analogues or designed hybrid molecules. Finally, structural motifs from the biologically active parent molecule have...

Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization and Violent Extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alpaslan Özerdem

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In the complex of motivating variables that define the push and pull factors behind recruitment and participation in civil conflict, "radicalization"—or "violent extremism"—is not conceived as a very strong motive, as is the case with studies on terrorism. As part of disarming youth combatants,the linkages between reintegration outcomes and possible rerecruitment into radical and extremist violence must be better understood to mitigate such risks. In our analysis, the policies guiding reintegration of child soldiers and youth should be better attuned to the relationship between recruitment motivations and reintegration outcomes, and must be approached from a political lens rather than a purely technical one. The risk of radicalization and involvement in violent extremism is ultimately a structural challenge, which needs to address root causes of recruitment rather than trying to find a solution through a band-aid approach of stopgap reintegration assistance.

Toward Design Guidelines for Stream Restoration Structures: Measuring and Modeling Unsteady Turbulent Flows in Natural Streams with Complex Hydraulic Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Lightbody, A.; Sotiropoulos, F.; Kang, S.; Diplas, P.

2009-12-01

Despite their widespread application to prevent lateral river migration, stabilize banks, and promote aquatic habitat, shallow transverse flow training structures such as rock vanes and stream barbs lack quantitative design guidelines. Due to the lack of fundamental knowledge about the interaction of the flow field with the sediment bed, existing engineering standards are typically based on various subjective criteria or on cross-sectionally-averaged shear stresses rather than local values. Here, we examine the performance and stability of in-stream structures within a field-scale single-threaded sand-bed meandering stream channel in the newly developed Outdoor StreamLab (OSL) at the St. Anthony Falls Laboratory (SAFL). Before and after the installation of a rock vane along the outer bank of the middle meander bend, high-resolution topography data were obtained for the entire 50-m-long reach at 1-cm spatial scale in the horizontal and sub-millimeter spatial scale in the vertical. In addition, detailed measurements of flow and turbulence were obtained using acoustic Doppler velocimetry at twelve cross-sections focused on the vicinity of the structure. Measurements were repeated at a range of extreme events, including in-bank flows with an approximate flow rate of 44 L/s (1.4 cfs) and bankfull floods with an approximate flow rate of 280 L/s (10 cfs). Under both flow rates, the structure reduced near-bank shear stresses and resulted in both a deeper thalweg and near-bank aggradation. The resulting comprehensive dataset has been used to validate a large eddy simulation carried out by SAFL’s computational fluid dynamics model, the Virtual StreamLab (VSL). This versatile computational framework is able to efficiently simulate 3D unsteady turbulent flows in natural streams with complex in-stream structures and as a result holds promise for the development of much-needed quantitative design guidelines.

On the generation of log-Levy distributions and extreme randomness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2011-01-01

The log-normal distribution is prevalent across the sciences, as it emerges from the combination of multiplicative processes and the central limit theorem (CLT). The CLT, beyond yielding the normal distribution, also yields the class of Levy distributions. The log-Levy distributions are the Levy counterparts of the log-normal distribution, they appear in the context of ultraslow diffusion processes, and they are categorized by Mandelbrot as belonging to the class of extreme randomness. In this paper, we present a natural stochastic growth model from which both the log-normal distribution and the log-Levy distributions emerge universally-the former in the case of deterministic underlying setting, and the latter in the case of stochastic underlying setting. In particular, we establish a stochastic growth model which universally generates Mandelbrot's extreme randomness. (paper)

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomczyk, Aleksandra M; White, Piran C L; Ewertowski, Marek W

2016-01-15

A continued supply of ecosystem services (ES) from a system depends on the resilience of that system to withstand shocks and perturbations. In many parts of the world, climate change is leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, potentially influencing ES provision. Our study of the effects of an intense rainfall event in Gorce National Park, Poland, shows: (1) the intense rainfall event impacted heavily on the supply of ES by limiting potential recreation opportunities and reducing erosion prevention; (2) these negative impacts were not only restricted to the period of the extreme event but persisted for up to several years, depending on the pre-event trail conditions and post-event management activities; (3) to restore the pre-event supply of ES, economic investments were required in the form of active repairs to trails, which, in Gorce National Park, were an order of magnitude higher than the costs of normal trail maintenance; and (4) when recreational trails were left to natural restoration, loss of biodiversity was observed, and recovery rates of ES (recreation opportunities and soil erosion prevention) were reduced in comparison to their pre-event state. We conclude that proper trail design and construction provides a good solution to avoid some of the negative impacts of extreme events on recreation, as well as offering co-benefits in terms of protecting biodiversity and enhancing the supply of regulating services such as erosion prevention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Requirements for Simulating the Effects of Extreme Acts of Terrorism: A White Paper

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allen, M.; Hiebert-Dodd, K.; Marozas, D.; Paananen, O.; Pryor, R.J.; Reinert, R.K.

1998-10-01

This white paper presents the initial requirements for developing a new computer model for simulating the effects of extreme acts of terrorism in the United States. General characteristics of the model are proposed and the level of effort to prepare a complete written description of the model, prior to coding, is detailed. The model would simulate the decision processes and interactions of complex U. S. systems engaged in responding to and recovering from four types of terrorist incidents. The incident scenarios span the space of extreme acts of terrorism that have the potential to affect not only the impacted area, but also the entire nation. The model would be useful to decision-makers in assessing and analyzing the vulnerability of the nation's complex infrastructures, in prioritizing resources to reduce risk, and in planning strategies for immediate response and for subsequent recovery from terrorist incidents.

The logic, experimental steps, and potential of heterologous natural product biosynthesis featuring the complex antibiotic erythromycin A produced through E. coli.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ming; Zhang, Haoran; Pfeifer, Blaine A

2013-01-13

The heterologous production of complex natural products is an approach designed to address current limitations and future possibilities. It is particularly useful for those compounds which possess therapeutic value but cannot be sufficiently produced or would benefit from an improved form of production. The experimental procedures involved can be subdivided into three components: 1) genetic transfer; 2) heterologous reconstitution; and 3) product analysis. Each experimental component is under continual optimization to meet the challenges and anticipate the opportunities associated with this emerging approach. Heterologous biosynthesis begins with the identification of a genetic sequence responsible for a valuable natural product. Transferring this sequence to a heterologous host is complicated by the biosynthetic pathway complexity responsible for product formation. The antibiotic erythromycin A is a good example. Twenty genes (totaling >50 kb) are required for eventual biosynthesis. In addition, three of these genes encode megasynthases, multi-domain enzymes each ~300 kDa in size. This genetic material must be designed and transferred to E. coli for reconstituted biosynthesis. The use of PCR isolation, operon construction, multi-cystronic plasmids, and electro-transformation will be described in transferring the erythromycin A genetic cluster to E. coli. Once transferred, the E. coli cell must support eventual biosynthesis. This process is also challenging given the substantial differences between E. coli and most original hosts responsible for complex natural product formation. The cell must provide necessary substrates to support biosynthesis and coordinately express the transferred genetic cluster to produce active enzymes. In the case of erythromycin A, the E. coli cell had to be engineered to provide the two precursors (propionyl-CoA and (2S)-methylmalonyl-CoA) required for biosynthesis. In addition, gene sequence modifications, plasmid copy number

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

INFLUENCE OF NATURAL ADDITIVES ON PROTEIN COMPLEX OF BREAD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Urminská

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The study focuses on researching the influence of natural additives on certain technological characteristics of mixtures used for bread production, more particularly the influence of N substances in used raw material on selected qualitative parameters of bread. The blends for bread production to be analysed were prepared by mixing wheat flour with an addition of oat, buckwheat, lentil and chickpea wholegrain flour in different portions (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 %. The experiment showed that the addition of natural additives worsened the protein complex of the blends used in bread production (worsening also qualitative parameters known as product volume. The loaves prepared with an addition of buckwheat, oat, lentil and chickpea were evaluated to be of a lesser quality from a technological viewpoint when compared with pure wheat loaves. The lower content of gluten forming proteins and the generally changed protein composition of blends due to additives caused a lower percentage of wet gluten content, its lower extensibility and swelling capacity. The sedimentation value (Zeleny index decreased proportionally with the increase of addition until the level was unsatisfactory for raw material intended for bakery purposes. The N content in experimental loaves was higher than in the reference loaves and it increased according to the selected additive and its portion in the blend (more with the addition of lentil and chickpea, less in case of buckwheat and oat which is considered as positive from a nutritional point of view. But from the technological point of view the additives did not show any positive influence and caused a lower loaf bread volume. The most significant decrease of the loaf bread volume was found with the addition of 50 % of buckwheat (- 45.6 %. Better results were obtained with a lower portion of the additive: loaf with an addition of 30 % of chickpea (volume decreased by 12.8 % > loaf with an addition of 30 % of lentil (volume

Introduction to complex plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonitz, Michael; Ludwig, Patrick; Horing, Norman

2010-01-01

Complex plasmas differ from traditional plasmas in many ways: these are low-temperature high pressure systems containing nanometer to micrometer size particles which may be highly charged and strongly interacting. The particles may be chemically reacting or be in contact with solid surfaces, and the electrons may show quantum behaviour. These interesting properties have led to many applications of complex plasmas in technology, medicine and science. Yet complex plasmas are extremely complicated, both experimentally and theoretically, and require a variety of new approaches which go beyond standard plasma physics courses. This book fills this gap presenting an introduction to theory, experiment and computer simulation in this field. Based on tutorial lectures at a very successful recent Summer Institute, the presentation is ideally suited for graduate students, plasma physicists and experienced undergraduates. (orig.)

Introduction to Complex Plasmas

CERN Document Server

Bonitz, Michael; Ludwig, Patrick

2010-01-01

Complex plasmas differ from traditional plasmas in many ways: these are low-temperature high pressure systems containing nanometer to micrometer size particles which may be highly charged and strongly interacting. The particles may be chemically reacting or be in contact with solid surfaces, and the electrons may show quantum behaviour. These interesting properties have led to many applications of complex plasmas in technology, medicine and science. Yet complex plasmas are extremely complicated, both experimentally and theoretically, and require a variety of new approaches which go beyond standard plasma physics courses. This book fills this gap presenting an introduction to theory, experiment and computer simulation in this field. Based on tutorial lectures at a very successful recent Summer Institute, the presentation is ideally suited for graduate students, plasma physicists and experienced undergraduates.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

A review on substances and processes relevant for optical remote sensing of extremely turbid marine areas, with a focus on the Wadden Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommersom, A.; Wernand, M.R.; Peters, S.W.M.; de Boer, J.

2010-01-01

The interpretation of optical remote sensing data of estuaries and tidal flat areas is hampered by optical complexity and often extreme turbidity. Extremely high concentrations of suspended matter, chlorophyll and dissolved organic matter, local differences, seasonal and tidal variations and

Natural Hazards Education in the Himalayan Region of Ladakh, India

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

2015-04-01

Here we present a review of a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. This project: (i) delivered a geoscience education programme, in conjunction with a range of local and international partners, to multiple schools in the region; (ii) utilised interactive demonstrations to teach students about the key physical dynamics of landslides and earthquakes; and (iii) integrated aspects of physical and social science within the teaching, to give students a holistic understanding of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. In total three programmes were delivered, to a range of different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds. This presentation will particularly highlight (i) the importance of delivering material in a culturally appropriate way, (ii) challenges regarding the sustainability of delivering high quality geoscience education projects, and (iii) ways in which geoscience education outreach can be mainstreamed into overseas research visits.

Clathrin-independent endocytosis: from nonexisting to an extreme degree of complexity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandvig, Kirsten; Torgersen, Maria Lyngaas; Raa, Hilde Andersen

2008-01-01

Today it is generally accepted that there are several endocytic mechanisms, both the clathrin-dependent one and mechanisms which operate without clathrin and with different requirements when it comes to dynamin, small GTP-binding proteins of the Rho family and specific lipids. It should be noted ...... to give an overview of the complexity of the mechanisms and their regulation....

Assessing the suitability of extreme learning machines (ELM for groundwater level prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yadav Basant

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Fluctuation of groundwater levels around the world is an important theme in hydrological research. Rising water demand, faulty irrigation practices, mismanagement of soil and uncontrolled exploitation of aquifers are some of the reasons why groundwater levels are fluctuating. In order to effectively manage groundwater resources, it is important to have accurate readings and forecasts of groundwater levels. Due to the uncertain and complex nature of groundwater systems, the development of soft computing techniques (data-driven models in the field of hydrology has significant potential. This study employs two soft computing techniques, namely, extreme learning machine (ELM and support vector machine (SVM to forecast groundwater levels at two observation wells located in Canada. A monthly data set of eight years from 2006 to 2014 consisting of both hydrological and meteorological parameters (rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration and groundwater level was used for the comparative study of the models. These variables were used in various combinations for univariate and multivariate analysis of the models. The study demonstrates that the proposed ELM model has better forecasting ability compared to the SVM model for monthly groundwater level forecasting.

The Complexity of Indirect Translation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wenjie, L. I.

2017-01-01

its complex nature, and thus determined that many facets of ITr remain to be studied. The present article will try to encompass the complexity of ITr by looking into the reasons for translating indirectly, the challenge of finding out mediating texts (MTs), indirectness in both translation...... of which have been translated and interpreted indirectly through major languages like English, will be employed as examples. Hopefully, this study will offer more insights into the nature of translation as a social activity and raise further interests in studying translation as a complex phenomenon....

Constructing and screening a metagenomic library of a cold and alkaline extreme environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glaring, Mikkel Andreas; Vester, Jan Kjølhede; Stougaard, Peter

2017-01-01

Natural cold or alkaline environments are common on Earth. A rare combination of these two extremes is found in the permanently cold (less than 6 °C) and alkaline (pH above 10) ikaite columns in the Ikka Fjord in Southern Greenland. Bioprospecting efforts have established the ikaite columns...

Influence of humic acids on the migration behavior of radioactive and non-radioactive substances under conditions close to nature. Synthesis, radiometric determination of functional groups, complexation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pompe, S.; Bubner, M.; Schmeide, K.; Heise, K.H.; Bernhard, G.; Nitsche, H.

2000-04-01

The interaction behavior of humic acids with uranium(VI) and the influence of humic substances on the migration behavior of uranium was investigated. A main focus of this work was the synthesis of four different humic acid model substances and their characterization and comparison to the natural humic acid from Aldrich. A radiometric method for the determination of humic acid functional groups was applied in addition to conventional methods for the determination of the functionality of humic acids. The humic acid model substances show functional and structural properties comparable to natural humic acids. Modified humic acids with blocked phenolic OH were synthesized to determine the influence of phenolic OH groups on the complexation behavior of humic acids. A synthesis method for 14 C-labeled humic acids with high specific activity was developed. The complexation behavior of synthetic and natural humic acids with uranium(VI) was investigated by X-ray absorption spectroscopy, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy and FTIR spectroscopy. The synthetic model substances show an interaction behavior with uranium(VI) that is comparable to natural humic acids. This points to the fact that the synthetic humic acids simulate the functionality of their natural analogues very well. For the first time the influence of phenolic OH groups on the complexation behavior of humic acids was investigated by applying a modified humic acid with blocked phenolic OH groups. The formation of a uranyl hydroxy humate complex was identified by laserspectroscopic investigations of the complexation of Aldrich humic acid with uranium(VI) at pH7. The migration behavior of uranium in a sandy aquifer system rich in humic substances was investigated in column experiments. A part of uranium migrates non-retarded through the sediment, bound to humic colloids. The uranium migration behavior is strongly influenced by the kinetically controlled interaction processes of uranium with the humic colloids

Curvilinear immersed-boundary method for simulating unsteady flows in shallow natural streams with arbitrarily complex obstacles

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Seokkoo; Borazjani, Iman; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

2008-11-01

Unsteady 3D simulations of flows in natural streams is a challenging task due to the complexity of the bathymetry, the shallowness of the flow, and the presence of multiple nature- and man-made obstacles. This work is motivated by the need to develop a powerful numerical method for simulating such flows using coherent-structure-resolving turbulence models. We employ the curvilinear immersed boundary method of Ge and Sotiropoulos (Journal of Computational Physics, 2007) and address the critical issue of numerical efficiency in large aspect ratio computational domains and grids such as those encountered in long and shallow open channels. We show that the matrix-free Newton-Krylov method for solving the momentum equations coupled with an algebraic multigrid method with incomplete LU preconditioner for solving the Poisson equation yield a robust and efficient procedure for obtaining time-accurate solutions in such problems. We demonstrate the potential of the numerical approach by carrying out a direct numerical simulation of flow in a long and shallow meandering stream with multiple hydraulic structures.

Description of extreme-wave deposits on the northern coast of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Watt, Steven G.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Morton, Robert A.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gelfencaum, Guy

2010-01-01

To develop a better understanding of the origins of extreme-wave deposits and to help assess the potential risk of future overwash events, a field mapping survey was conducted in November 2006 on the northern coast of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles. Deposits were mapped and analyzed to help develop a systematic sedimentological approach to distinguish the type of extreme-wave event (tsunamis or storms) or combination of events that formed and modified the deposits over time. Extreme-wave deposits on the northern coast of Bonaire between Boka Onima and Boka Olivia have formed sand sheets, poly-modal ridge complexes, and boulder fields on a Pleistocene limestone platform 3?8 meters above sea level. The deposits exhibit characteristics that are consistent with both large storm and tsunami processes that often overlap one another. Sand sheets occur as low-relief features underlying and incorporated with boulder field deposits. The seaward edge of ridge complexes are deposited up to 70 m from the shoreline and can extend over 200 m inland. Over 600 clasts were measured in fields and range in size from coarse gravel to fine block, weigh up to 165 metric tons, and are placed over 280 m from the shoreline. Our analyses indicate that the deposits may have been produced by a combination of hurricane and tsunami events spanning 10s to 1000s of years. Comparing the different deposit morphologies between study sites highlights the importance of shoreline orientation to the distribution of extreme-wave deposits onshore. However, further investigation is required to fully understand the processes that have produced and modified these deposits over time.

Goos-Haenchen shift in complex crystals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Longhi, Stefano; Della Valle, Giuseppe; Staliunas, Kestutis [Dipartimento di Fisica, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Departament de Fisica i Enginyeria Nuclear, Instituci Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avanats (ICREA), Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya, Colom 11, E-08222 Terrassa, Barcelona (Spain)

2011-10-15

The Goos-Haenchen (GH) effect for wave scattering from complex PT-symmetric periodic potentials (complex crystals) is theoretically investigated, with specific reference to optical GH shift in photonic crystal slabs with a sinusoidal periodic modulation of both real and imaginary parts of the dielectric constant. The analysis highlights some distinct and rather unique features as compared to the GH shift found in ordinary crystals. In particular, as opposed to GH shift in ordinary crystals, which is large at the band gap edges, in complex crystals the GH shift can be large inside the reflection (amplification) band and becomes extremely large as the PT symmetry-breaking threshold is approached.

Absence of Non-histone Protein Complexes at Natural Chromosomal Pause Sites Results in Reduced Replication Pausing in Aging Yeast Cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marleny Cabral

2016-11-01

Full Text Available There is substantial evidence that genomic instability increases during aging. Replication pausing (and stalling at difficult-to-replicate chromosomal sites may induce genomic instability. Interestingly, in aging yeast cells, we observed reduced replication pausing at various natural replication pause sites (RPSs in ribosomal DNA (rDNA and non-rDNA locations (e.g., silent replication origins and tRNA genes. The reduced pausing occurs independent of the DNA helicase Rrm3p, which facilitates replication past these non-histone protein-complex-bound RPSs, and is independent of the deacetylase Sir2p. Conditions of caloric restriction (CR, which extend life span, also cause reduced replication pausing at the 5S rDNA and at tRNA genes. In aged and CR cells, the RPSs are less occupied by their specific non-histone protein complexes (e.g., the preinitiation complex TFIIIC, likely because members of these complexes have primarily cytosolic localization. These conditions may lead to reduced replication pausing and may lower replication stress at these sites during aging.

Magnetic resonance venography of congenital vascular malformations of the extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laor, T.; Burrows, P.E.; Hoffer, F.A.

1996-01-01

Contrast angiography can demonstrate the vascular components of a vascular malformation, but can be technically challenging in small patients with complex venous anomalies. We reviewed the role of magnetic resonance venography (MRV) in the evaluation of children with predominantly low-flow, vascular malformations of the extremities. MRV (2D time-of-flight technique) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging examinations were performed in ten young patients with congential predominantly low-flow vascular malformations of the extremities. MR imaging was used to characterize and determine the extent of the malformations, and MRV to evaluate the deep and superficial venous channels. In all patients, MRV studies were reviewed in conjunction with contrast angiograms, considered the gold standard, to confirm the findings. All signficant channel anomalies seen with contrast angiography were identified with MRV. In addition, MRV demonstrated some veins that were not intentionally opacified during contrast studies. MRV demonstrates both the superficial and deep conducting veins, whereas contrast angiography is a more directed study, evaluating only those channels intentionally opacified. Together, MR imaging and MRV data can non-invasively form the basis for determining the prognosis and choosing the individual treatment of congenital vascular malformations of the extremities. (orig.)

Generating and Executing Complex Natural Language Queries across Linked Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamon, Thierry; Mougin, Fleur; Grabar, Natalia

2015-01-01

With the recent and intensive research in the biomedical area, the knowledge accumulated is disseminated through various knowledge bases. Links between these knowledge bases are needed in order to use them jointly. Linked Data, SPARQL language, and interfaces in Natural Language question-answering provide interesting solutions for querying such knowledge bases. We propose a method for translating natural language questions in SPARQL queries. We use Natural Language Processing tools, semantic resources, and the RDF triples description. The method is designed on 50 questions over 3 biomedical knowledge bases, and evaluated on 27 questions. It achieves 0.78 F-measure on the test set. The method for translating natural language questions into SPARQL queries is implemented as Perl module available at http://search.cpan.org/ thhamon/RDF-NLP-SPARQLQuery.

Warm p-soup and near extremal black holes

Science.gov (United States)

Morita, Takeshi; Shiba, Shotaro; Wiseman, Toby; Withers, Benjamin

2014-04-01

We consider a model of D-dimensional supergravity coupled to elementary p-branes. We use gravitational arguments to deduce the low energy effective theory of N nearly parallel branes. This is a (p + 1)-dimensional scalar field theory, where the scalars represent the positions of the branes in their transverse space. We propose that the same theory in a certain temperature regime describes a ‘soup’ of strongly interacting branes, giving a microscopic description of near extremal black p-branes. We use natural approximations to estimate the energy density of this soup as a function of the physical parameters; N, temperature, brane tension and gravitational coupling. We also characterize the horizon radius, measured in the metric natural to the branes, with the thermal vev of the scalars. For both quantities we find agreement with the corresponding supergravity black brane results. Surprisingly, beyond the physical parameters, we are naturally able to reproduce certain irrational factors such as πs. We comment on how these ideas may explain why black hole thermodynamics arises in gauge theories with holographic duals at finite temperature.

Toroidal plasmoid generation via extreme hydrodynamic shear.

Science.gov (United States)

Gharib, Morteza; Mendoza, Sean; Rosenfeld, Moshe; Beizai, Masoud; Alves Pereira, Francisco J

2017-11-28

Saint Elmo's fire and lightning are two known forms of naturally occurring atmospheric pressure plasmas. As a technology, nonthermal plasmas are induced from artificially created electromagnetic or electrostatic fields. Here we report the observation of arguably a unique case of a naturally formed such plasma, created in air at room temperature without external electromagnetic action, by impinging a high-speed microjet of deionized water on a dielectric solid surface. We demonstrate that tribo-electrification from extreme and focused hydrodynamic shear is the driving mechanism for the generation of energetic free electrons. Air ionization results in a plasma that, unlike the general family, is topologically well defined in the form of a coherent toroidal structure. Possibly confined through its self-induced electromagnetic field, this plasmoid is shown to emit strong luminescence and discrete-frequency radio waves. Our experimental study suggests the discovery of a unique platform to support experimentation in low-temperature plasma science. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Evidence of population resistance to extreme low flows in a fluvial-dependent fish species

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Rachel A.; Freeman, Mary C.

2015-01-01

Extreme low streamflows are natural disturbances to aquatic populations. Species in naturally intermittent streams display adaptations that enhance persistence during extreme events; however, the fate of populations in perennial streams during unprecedented low-flow periods is not well-understood. Biota requiring swift-flowing habitats may be especially vulnerable to flow reductions. We estimated the abundance and local survival of a native fluvial-dependent fish species (Etheostoma inscriptum) across 5 years encompassing historic low flows in a sixth-order southeastern USA perennial river. Based on capturemark-recapture data, the study shoal may have acted as a refuge during severe drought, with increased young-of-the-year (YOY) recruitment and occasionally high adult immigration. Contrary to expectations, summer and autumn survival rates (30 days) were not strongly depressed during low-flow periods, despite 25%-80% reductions in monthly discharge. Instead, YOY survival increased with lower minimum discharge and in response to small rain events that increased low-flow variability. Age-1+ fish showed the opposite pattern, with survival decreasing in response to increasing low-flow variability. Results from this population dynamics study of a small fish in a perennial river suggest that fluvial-dependent species can be resistant to extreme flow reductions through enhanced YOY recruitment and high survival

Data for effects of lanthanum complex on the thermo-oxidative aging of natural rubber

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zheng

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Novel mixed antioxidants composed of antioxidant IPPD and lanthanum (La complex were added as a filler to form natural rubber (NR composites. By mechanical testing, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA, a string of data, including the mechanical properties, the variation of internal groups and the thermal and thermo-oxidative decompositions of NR, was presented in this data article. The data accompanying its research article [1] studied the thermo-oxidative aging properties of NR in detail. The density function theoretical (DFT calculations were also used as an assistant to study the thermo-oxidative aging mechanism of NR. The data revealed that this new rare-earth antioxidant could indeed enhance the thermo-oxidative aging resistance of NR, which is associated with its different function mechanism from that of the pure antioxidant IPPD.

Data for effects of lanthanum complex on the thermo-oxidative aging of natural rubber.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Wei; Liu, Li; Zhao, Xiuying; He, Jingwei; Wang, Ao; Chan, Tung W; Wu, Sizhu

2015-12-01

Novel mixed antioxidants composed of antioxidant IPPD and lanthanum (La) complex were added as a filler to form natural rubber (NR) composites. By mechanical testing, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), a string of data, including the mechanical properties, the variation of internal groups and the thermal and thermo-oxidative decompositions of NR, was presented in this data article. The data accompanying its research article [1] studied the thermo-oxidative aging properties of NR in detail. The density function theoretical (DFT) calculations were also used as an assistant to study the thermo-oxidative aging mechanism of NR. The data revealed that this new rare-earth antioxidant could indeed enhance the thermo-oxidative aging resistance of NR, which is associated with its different function mechanism from that of the pure antioxidant IPPD.

Data for effects of lanthanum complex on the thermo-oxidative aging of natural rubber

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Wei; Liu, Li; Zhao, Xiuying; He, Jingwei; Wang, Ao; Chan, Tung W.; Wu, Sizhu

2015-01-01

Novel mixed antioxidants composed of antioxidant IPPD and lanthanum (La) complex were added as a filler to form natural rubber (NR) composites. By mechanical testing, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), a string of data, including the mechanical properties, the variation of internal groups and the thermal and thermo-oxidative decompositions of NR, was presented in this data article. The data accompanying its research article [1] studied the thermo-oxidative aging properties of NR in detail. The density function theoretical (DFT) calculations were also used as an assistant to study the thermo-oxidative aging mechanism of NR. The data revealed that this new rare-earth antioxidant could indeed enhance the thermo-oxidative aging resistance of NR, which is associated with its different function mechanism from that of the pure antioxidant IPPD. PMID:26693513

Min-Max Spaces and Complexity Reduction in Min-Max Expansions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gaubert, Stephane, E-mail: Stephane.Gaubert@inria.fr [Ecole Polytechnique, INRIA and CMAP (France); McEneaney, William M., E-mail: wmceneaney@ucsd.edu [University of California San Diego, Dept. of Mech. and Aero. Eng. (United States)

2012-06-15

Idempotent methods have been found to be extremely helpful in the numerical solution of certain classes of nonlinear control problems. In those methods, one uses the fact that the value function lies in the space of semiconvex functions (in the case of maximizing controllers), and approximates this value using a truncated max-plus basis expansion. In some classes, the value function is actually convex, and then one specifically approximates with suprema (i.e., max-plus sums) of affine functions. Note that the space of convex functions is a max-plus linear space, or moduloid. In extending those concepts to game problems, one finds a different function space, and different algebra, to be appropriate. Here we consider functions which may be represented using infima (i.e., min-max sums) of max-plus affine functions. It is natural to refer to the class of functions so represented as the min-max linear space (or moduloid) of max-plus hypo-convex functions. We examine this space, the associated notion of duality and min-max basis expansions. In using these methods for solution of control problems, and now games, a critical step is complexity-reduction. In particular, one needs to find reduced-complexity expansions which approximate the function as well as possible. We obtain a solution to this complexity-reduction problem in the case of min-max expansions.

Employing the Hilbert-Huang Transform to analyze observed natural complex signals: Calm wind meandering cases

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Luis Gustavo Nogueira; Stefanello, Michel Baptistella; Degrazia, Gervásio Annes; Acevedo, Otávio Costa; Puhales, Franciano Scremin; Demarco, Giuliano; Mortarini, Luca; Anfossi, Domenico; Roberti, Débora Regina; Costa, Felipe Denardin; Maldaner, Silvana

2016-11-01

In this study we analyze natural complex signals employing the Hilbert-Huang spectral analysis. Specifically, low wind meandering meteorological data are decomposed into turbulent and non turbulent components. These non turbulent movements, responsible for the absence of a preferential direction of the horizontal wind, provoke negative lobes in the meandering autocorrelation functions. The meandering characteristic time scales (meandering periods) are determined from the spectral peak provided by the Hilbert-Huang marginal spectrum. The magnitudes of the temperature and horizontal wind meandering period obtained agree with the results found from the best fit of the heuristic meandering autocorrelation functions. Therefore, the new method represents a new procedure to evaluate meandering periods that does not employ mathematical expressions to represent observed meandering autocorrelation functions.

Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

2013-01-01

Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

Optimal bounds and extremal trajectories for time averages in dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tobasco, Ian; Goluskin, David; Doering, Charles

2017-11-01

For systems governed by differential equations it is natural to seek extremal solution trajectories, maximizing or minimizing the long-time average of a given quantity of interest. A priori bounds on optima can be proved by constructing auxiliary functions satisfying certain point-wise inequalities, the verification of which does not require solving the underlying equations. We prove that for any bounded autonomous ODE, the problems of finding extremal trajectories on the one hand and optimal auxiliary functions on the other are strongly dual in the sense of convex duality. As a result, auxiliary functions provide arbitrarily sharp bounds on optimal time averages. Furthermore, nearly optimal auxiliary functions provide volumes in phase space where maximal and nearly maximal trajectories must lie. For polynomial systems, such functions can be constructed by semidefinite programming. We illustrate these ideas using the Lorenz system, producing explicit volumes in phase space where extremal trajectories are guaranteed to reside. Supported by NSF Award DMS-1515161, Van Loo Postdoctoral Fellowships, and the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation.

Normal venous anatomy and physiology of the lower extremity.

Science.gov (United States)

Notowitz, L B

1993-06-01

Venous disease of the lower extremities is common but is often misunderstood. It seems that the focus is on the exciting world of arterial anatomy and pathology, while the topic of venous anatomy and pathology comes in second place. However, venous diseases such as chronic venous insufficiency, leg ulcers, and varicose veins affect much of the population and may lead to disability and death. Nurses are often required to answer complex questions from the patients and his or her family about the patient's disease. Patients depend on nurses to provide accurate information in terms they can understand. Therefore it is important to have an understanding of the normal venous system of the legs before one can understand the complexities of venous diseases and treatments. This presents an overview of normal venous anatomy and physiology.

Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

Ideologies and Discourses: Extreme Narratives in Extreme Metal Music

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojana Radovanović

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Historically speaking, metal music has always been about provoking a strong reaction. Depending on the characteristics of different sub-genres, one can focus on the sound, technique, visual appearance, and furthermore, the ideologies and ideas that are the foundation for each of the sub-genres. Although the majority of the metal community rejects accusations of being racially intolerant, some ideologies of extreme sub-genres (such as black metal are in fact formed around the ideas of self-conscious elitism expressed through interest in pagan mythology, racism, Nazism and fascism. There has been much interest in the Nazi era within the extreme metal scene thus influencing other sub-genres and artists. The aim of this paper is to examine various appearances of extreme narratives such as Nazism and racism in  different sub-genres of metal, bearing in mind variations dependent on geographical, political, and other factors.

Extremal surface barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

2014-01-01

We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

Operation modes research of liquefied natural gas storages as a part of the ground complexes equipment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. S. Korolev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The use of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG in the space-rocket equipment is motivated by some advantages. That is why a lot of tests and works are actively carried out now on rocket engines using liquefied natural gas.To provide the engine tests and subsequent rocket complex operation a creation of LNG storages is demanded as a part of ground processing equipment and support for their safe operation conditions.One of LNG danger factor is its low boiling temperature, and also changing the condition, density and LNG boiling temperature at storage due to evaporation of light component, namely methane. At refill of the storages having fuel remains with a new LNG portion these factors can lead to formation of the stratified macro-layers and cause a mode of the intensive mixing that is called "rollover", with almost instant evaporation of LNG big mass and sharp pressure boost, capable to result in the storage distraction with catastrophic effects.The work objectives are formulated such as a technique development for forecasting of the LNG parameters in operating storages including the rollover mode, a comparison of calculated results of the LNG parameters with the experimental data, and a definition of possible recommendations for safe operation of LNG storages as a part of the ground complexes equipment.The paper reviews 12 publications concerning the issues and proceeding processes at operation of LNG storages, including the rollover mode.To verify the reliability of process simulation results in the LNG, represented in models by the binary methane-ethane mixture the calculated values have been compared with the experimental data for a LNG storage mode in the reservoir of a ground test complex.The reliability of developed models of the heat-mass-exchange processes in stratified on density and temperature in LNG storage with emergence of conditions for the rollover mode has been verified by comparing the settlement characteristics to the published

Selective whole genome amplification for resequencing target microbial species from complex natural samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Leichty, Aaron R; Brisson, Dustin

2014-10-01

Population genomic analyses have demonstrated power to address major questions in evolutionary and molecular microbiology. Collecting populations of genomes is hindered in many microbial species by the absence of a cost effective and practical method to collect ample quantities of sufficiently pure genomic DNA for next-generation sequencing. Here we present a simple method to amplify genomes of a target microbial species present in a complex, natural sample. The selective whole genome amplification (SWGA) technique amplifies target genomes using nucleotide sequence motifs that are common in the target microbe genome, but rare in the background genomes, to prime the highly processive phi29 polymerase. SWGA thus selectively amplifies the target genome from samples in which it originally represented a minor fraction of the total DNA. The post-SWGA samples are enriched in target genomic DNA, which are ideal for population resequencing. We demonstrate the efficacy of SWGA using both laboratory-prepared mixtures of cultured microbes as well as a natural host-microbe association. Targeted amplification of Borrelia burgdorferi mixed with Escherichia coli at genome ratios of 1:2000 resulted in >10(5)-fold amplification of the target genomes with genomic extracts from Wolbachia pipientis-infected Drosophila melanogaster resulted in up to 70% of high-throughput resequencing reads mapping to the W. pipientis genome. By contrast, 2-9% of sequencing reads were derived from W. pipientis without prior amplification. The SWGA technique results in high sequencing coverage at a fraction of the sequencing effort, thus allowing population genomic studies at affordable costs. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Complex Systems Education for natural Hazards and from down to up Pushing of Government and Officials: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Zvelebil, J.

2009-04-01

There is no point to discuss necessity of knowledge of Complex System or Nonlinear Science sensu lato at all education levels and practical decision making. Author feels that fulfilling of this strategic task needs to apply three tactics. However, each of them possesses different urgency. The highest priority has extensive education of new alternative paradigm for students. The reason is, study of Natural Science is highly fragmented into too one-theme-narrowly aimed specializations at Czech Universities. Common introductions into general methodology of science are unfortunately old fashioned, if any. They stress regular, reductionist, and time-less paradigm of classical physics without any alternatives, even the one of quantum theory by statistical physics. According former, our world is full of passive, simple, material items, which are being displaced, dragged, and changed (reversibly) by outer forces. Their interplays gradually, reaching one-by one higher levels of causal organization - all levels with the same types of canonical description, finally form the visible macro-reality. This view is in direct contradiction with student's personal experience. They see their World full of self-sustaining items actively using to that their own, inner intrinsic mechanisms. From molecules up, they are not simple things. In contrary, they are highly organized, and are even further organizing themselves into higher complexes by rich mutual interactions. In biology, those items are even caring-about-themselves entities, which actively survey and manipulate their outer environment to gain energy to increase their organization. Moreover, unhappy students are facing common view there is no "hard science" without being able to reduce results of their scientific work into a few mathematical equations, by which the observed "fata morgana" is reduced into "really scientific" description by "basic rules of Nature", which, hidden behind the scene, are causes of all the observed

Natural syntax : English interrogative main clauses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janez Oresnik

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Natural Syntax is a developing deductive theory, a branch of Naturalness Theory. The naturalnessjudgements are couched in naturalness scales, whichfollow from the basic parameters (or «axioms» listed at the beginning of the paper. The predictions of the theory are calculated in deductions, whose chief components are apair of naturalness scales and the rules governing the alignment of corresponding naturalness values. Parallel and chiastic alignments are distinguished, in complementary distribution. Chiastic alignment is mandatory in deductions limited to unnatural environments. The paper deals with English interrogative main clauses. Within these, only the interrogatives containing wh-words exclusively insitu constitute an extremely unnatural environment and require chiastic alignment. Otherwiseparallel alignment is used. Earlier publications on Natural Syntax: Kavcic 2005a,b, Oresnik 1999, 2000a,b, 200la-f   2002, 2003a-c, 2002/03, 2004. This list cites only works written in English.

Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

2017-12-01

The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

Constructing and Screening a Metagenomic Library of a Cold and Alkaline Extreme Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Glaring, Mikkel A; Vester, Jan K; Stougaard, Peter

2017-01-01

Natural cold or alkaline environments are common on Earth. A rare combination of these two extremes is found in the permanently cold (less than 6 °C) and alkaline (pH above 10) ikaite columns in the Ikka Fjord in Southern Greenland. Bioprospecting efforts have established the ikaite columns as a source of bacteria and enzymes adapted to these conditions. They have also highlighted the limitations of cultivation-based methods in this extreme environment and metagenomic approaches may provide access to novel extremophilic enzymes from the uncultured majority of bacteria. Here, we describe the construction and screening of a metagenomic library of the prokaryotic community inhabiting the ikaite columns.

Hydrodynamic models of the possibility of flooding Zaporizhya NPP site beyond the extreme earthquakes and hurricanes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skalozubov, V.I.; Gablaya, T.V.; Vashchenko, V.N.; Gerasimenko, T.V.; Kozlov, I.L.

2014-01-01

We propose a hydrodynamic model of possible flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozh'e NPP design basis earthquakes and hurricane. In contrast to the quasi-stationary approach of stress tests in the proposed model takes into account the dynamic nature of the processes of flooding, as well as a direct impact of external influences on extreme Kakhovske reservoir. As a result of hydrodynamic modeling, the possible conditions and criteria for the flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozhe extreme external influences

A lightning strike to the head causing a visual cortex defect with simple and complex visual hallucinations

Science.gov (United States)

Kleiter, Ingo; Luerding, Ralf; Diendorfer, Gerhard; Rek, Helga; Bogdahn, Ulrich; Schalke, Berthold

2009-01-01

The case of a 23-year-old mountaineer who was hit by a lightning strike to the occiput causing a large central visual field defect and bilateral tympanic membrane ruptures is described. Owing to extreme agitation, the patient was sent into a drug-induced coma for 3 days. After extubation, she experienced simple and complex visual hallucinations for several days, but otherwise largely recovered. Neuropsychological tests revealed deficits in fast visual detection tasks and non-verbal learning and indicated a right temporal lobe dysfunction, consistent with a right temporal focus on electroencephalography. At 4 months after the accident, she developed a psychological reaction consisting of nightmares, with reappearance of the complex visual hallucinations and a depressive syndrome. Using the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection network, a meteorological system for lightning surveillance, the exact geographical location and nature of the lightning strike were retrospectively retraced PMID:21734915

Perspectives on Ancient Maya Rural Complexity

OpenAIRE

Iannone, Gyles; Connell, Samuel V

2003-01-01

Settlement archaeology in the Maya area has focused much of its attention on the polar extremes of the settlement continuum. As a result of this urban/rural bias, a whole range of complex rural settlements remain under-explored. The chapters in this volume highlight the variable quality of these "middle level settlements".

Lower extremity fatigue increases complexity of postural control during a single-legged stance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bailey Jerry J

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-linear approaches to assessment of postural control can provide insight that compliment linear approaches. Control entropy (CE is a recently developed statistical tool from non-linear dynamical systems used to assess the complexity of non-stationary signals. We have previously used CE of high resolution accelerometry in running to show decreased complexity with exhaustive exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if complexity of postural control decreases following fatiguing exercise using CE. Methods Ten subjects (5 M/5 F; 25 ± 3 yr; 169.4 ± 11.7 cm; 79.0 ± 16.9 kg consented to participation approved by Western Oregon University IRB and completed two trials separated by 2-7 days. Trials consisted of two single-legged balance tests separated by two Wingate anaerobic tests (WAnT; PreFat/PostFat, or rest period (PreRest/PostRest. Balance tests consisted of a series of five single-legged stances, separated by 30 s rest, performed while standing on the dominant leg for 15-s with the participant crossing the arms over the chest and flexing the non-dominant knee to 90 degrees. High resolution accelerometers (HRA were fixed superficial to L3/L4 at the approximate center of mass (COM. Triaxial signals from the HRA were streamed in real time at 625 Hz. COM accelerations were recorded in g's for vertical (VT, medial/lateral (ML, and anterior/posterior (AP axes. A newly developed statistic (R-test was applied to group response shapes generated by Karhunen Loeve (KL transform modes resulting from Control Entropy (CE analysis. Results R-tests showed a significant mean vector difference (p p p p Conclusions These data indicate that fatiguing exercise eliminates the differential complexity response between axes, but increases complexity in all axes compared to the non-fatigued condition. This has implications with regard to the effects of fatigue on strategies of the control system to maintain postural control.

Uranium extraction by complexation with siderophores

Science.gov (United States)

Bahamonde Castro, Cristina

One of the major concerns of energy production is the environmental impact associated with the extraction of natural resources. Nuclear energy fuel is obtained from uranium, an abundant and naturally occurring element in the environment, but the currently used techniques for uranium extraction leave either a significant fingerprint (open pit mines) or a chemical residue that alters the pH of the environment (acid or alkali leaching). It is therefore clear that a new and greener approach to uranium extraction is needed. Bioleaching is one potential alternative. In bioleaching, complexants naturally produced from fungi or bacteria may be used to extract the uranium. In the following research, the siderophore enterobactin, which is naturally produced by bacteria to extract and solubilize iron from the environment, is evaluated to determine its potential for complexing with uranium. To determine whether enterobactin could be used for uranium extraction, its acid dissociation and its binding strength with the metal of interest must be determined. Due to the complexity of working with radioactive materials, lanthanides were used as analogs for uranium. In addition, polyprotic acids were used as structural and chemical analogs for the siderophore during method development. To evaluate the acid dissociation of enterobactin and the subsequent binding constants with lanthanides, three different analytical techniques were studied including: potentiometric titration, UltraViolet Visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometry and Isothermal Titration Calorimetry (ITC). After evaluation of three techniques, a combination of ITC and potentiometric titrations was deemed to be the most viable way for studying the siderophore of interest. The results obtained from these studies corroborate the ideal pH range for enterobactin complexation to the lanthanide of interest and pave the way for determining the strength of complexation relative to other naturally occurring metals. Ultimately, this

Ion exchangers in radioactive waste management: natural Iranian zeolites.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilchi, A; Maalek, B; Khanchi, A; Ghanadi Maragheh, M; Bagheri, A; Savoji, K

2006-01-01

Five samples of natural zeolites from different parts of Iran were chosen for this study. In order to characterize and determine their structures, X-ray diffraction and infrared spectrometry were carried out for each sample. The selective absorption properties of each zeolite were found by calculating the distribution coefficient (K(d)) of various simulated wastes which were prepared by spiking the radionuclides with (131)I, (99)Mo, (153)Sm, (140)La and (147)Nd. All the zeolite samples used in this study had extremely high absorption value towards (140)La; clinoptolite from Mianeh and analsite from Ghalehkhargoshi showed good absorption for (147)Nd; clinoptolite from Semnan and clinoptolite from Firozkoh showed high absorption for (153)Sm; mesolite from Arababad Tabas showed good absorption for (99)Mo; and finally mesolite from Arababad Tabas, clinoptolite from Semnan and clinoptolite from Firozkoh could be used to selectively absorb (131)I from the stimulated waste which was prepared. The natural zeolites chosen for these studies show a similar pattern to those synthetic ion exchangers in the literature and in some cases an extremely high selectivity towards certain radioactive elements. Hence the binary separation of radioactive elements could easily be carried out. Furthermore, these zeolites, which are naturally occurring ion exchangers, are viable economically and extremely useful alternatives in this industry.

A risk analysis for natural-draught cooling towers under wind load

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niemann, H.J.

1977-01-01

A satisfactory safety level of natural-draught cooling towers is usually reached by assuming an extreme wind load, for which the probability of being exceeded is very low. Taking into account the dispersion of strength, the relevant extreme wind velocity for the limiting carrying capacity is calculated for a desired probability of failure. Compared with the method of partial safety coefficients, the reliability can be calculated more exactly in this way, even though the probability distribution of the extreme wind velocity must be extrapolated from limited observations. (orig.) [de

Testing holographic conjectures of complexity with Born-Infeld black holes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tao, Jun; Wang, Peng; Yang, Haitang [Sichuan University, Center for Theoretical Physics, College of Physical Science and Technology, Chengdu (China)

2017-12-15

In this paper, we use Born-Infeld black holes to test two recent holographic conjectures of complexity, the ''Complexity = Action'' (CA) duality and ''Complexity = Volume 2.0'' (CV) duality. The complexity of a boundary state is identified with the action of the Wheeler-deWitt patch in CA duality, while this complexity is identified with the spacetime volume of the WdW patch in CV duality. In particular, we check whether the Born-Infeld black holes violate the generalized Lloyd bound: C ≤ (2)/(πℎ) [(M - QΦ) - (M - QΦ){sub gs}], where gs stands for the ground state for a given electrostatic potential. We find that the ground states are either some extremal black hole or regular spacetime with nonvanishing charges. For Born-Infeld black holes, we compute the action growth rate at the late-time limit and obtain the complexities in CA and CV dualities. Near extremality, the generalized Lloyd bound is violated in both dualities. Near the charged regular spacetime, this bound is satisfied in CV duality but violated in CA duality. When moving away from the ground state on a constant potential curve, the generalized Lloyd bound tends to be saturated from below in CA duality. (orig.)