WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme weight change

  1. A Prospective Study of Extreme Weight Change Behaviors among Adolescent Boys and Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Marita P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined changes in extreme weight change attitudes and behaviors (exercise dependence, food supplements, drive for thinness, bulimia) among adolescent boys and girls over a 16 month period. It also investigated the impact of body mass index, puberty, body image, depression and positive affect on these attitudes and behaviors 16 months…

  2. Changes in lower extremity muscle mass and muscle strength after weight loss in obese patients with knee osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marius; Christensen, Robin; Danneskiold-Samsøe, Bente

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the effects of low-energy diet-induced weight loss on lower-extremity muscle mass and knee muscle strength in obese patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA), and the associations of these effects.......To investigate the effects of low-energy diet-induced weight loss on lower-extremity muscle mass and knee muscle strength in obese patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA), and the associations of these effects....

  3. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  4. Lm Extremal Polynomials Associated with Generalized Jacobi Weights

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying-guang Shi

    2003-01-01

    Asymptotic estimations of the Christoffel type functions for Lm extremal polynomials with an even integer m associated with generalized Jacobi weights are established. Also, asymptotic behavior of the zeros of the Lm extremal polynomials and the Cotes numbers of the corresponding Turan quadrature formula is given.

  5. Life expectancies and outcomes in extremely low birth weight neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayeri F, Amini E, Shariat M, Mansoori B

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available "n Background: Much has changed in neonatal care for extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight <1000g infants over the recent years in Iran, resulting in an increase in their survival rate. We determined neonatal survival and short-term morbidity rates among ELBW infants, and the correlation of these factors with mortality risk. "n"nMethods: All single live-born ELBW babies delivered at Vali-e-Asr Hospital over a four-year period were identified. Data that were prospectively collected included: maternal age, prenatal and perinatal complications, antenatal steroid use, birth weight, gestational age, route of delivery, sex, need for resuscitation, APGAR score, need for mechanical  ventilation, and complications including respiratory distress syndrome (RDS, sepsis, jaundice, intraventricular  hemorrhage (IVH, necrotizing entrocolitis (NEC metabolic and hematologic and cardiac disorders. Information was statistically analyzed and a probability value of <0.05 was considered significant. "n"nResults: A total of 93 neonates were included in the study. The survival rate in the delivery room was 36.6%. The lowest birth weight was 400g, with a mean birth weight of 850.43(±136.48g, and the lowest gestational age was 22 weeks. The mean gestational period was 28.31(±2.77 weeks. The most frequent complication after birth was RDS(69.89% and the least frequent was NEC (6.4%. Short and normal gestation was observed in 44.08% and 48.4% of the neonates, respectively. There was a significant relationship between neonatal mortality and the need for resuscitation after birth, RDS and need for a respirator (p<0.05. "n"nFurthermore, there was significant increase in mortality among neonates with gestational age <30 weeks, birth weight under 750g and lack of steroids before birth (p<0.05. "n"nConclusions: To enhance perinatal and neonatal care and decrease the rate of preterm labor, improved standard resuscitation and increased administration of antenatal

  6. Body image and extreme attitudes toward weight in Brazilian schoolchildren (PeNSE 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Moreira Claro

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Adolescence is a period characterized by changes such as accelerated physical growth and sexual development. Besides having to deal with these changes, adolescents are faced with beauty standards and extreme valorization of physical appearance. OBJECTIVE: This article aims to describe body image and the practice of extreme attitudes regarding weight in Brazilian students. METHODS: Data from the National Survey of School Health (PeNSE 2012 were used in this study. PeNSE 2012 has a representative sample of students in the 9th grade of elementary school in public and private schools across the country. A self-administered questionnaire on body image, practice of extreme measures in relation to weight and sociodemographic data was used. Body image and the practice of extreme attitudes were described for the total sample and according to gender. Poisson regression analyzes were used to identify differences in the practices of extreme attitudes between the different types of body image. RESULTS: More than 38% of the adolescents did not consider their body image as normal. Over 15% of the students referred to carry out extreme weight control practices, combining practices to loose and gain weight. Adolescents who considered themselves fat presented frequency of extreme practices for weight loss 92% higher than that shown by individuals who considered themselves normal. Similarly, adolescents who considered themselves thin presented frequency of extreme attitudes to gain weight (9.7% higher than that shown by students who considered themselves normal (5.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of extreme weight control practices among Brazilian adolescents is alarming and should be subject of measures in health and education fields.

  7. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  8. Detecting change-points in extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Dupuis, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a thorough comparison of different methods in terms of performance on the estimation of change-points and computational time. We also examine three locations on the U.S. northeast coast and demonstrate that the methods are useful for identifying changes in seasonally extreme warm temperatures.

  9. The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.

  10. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  11. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Eliza CROITORU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in daily extreme precipitations have been identified in many studies conducted at local, regional or global scales. In Romania, only little research on this issue has been done so far. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in daily extreme precipitations indices over a period of 53 years (1961-2013. Data sets of daily precipitation recorded in 34 weather stations were analyzed. Among them, three are located in the Carpathian Mountains area and four are located on the Black Sea Coast. The main goal was to find changes in extreme daily precipitation using a set of 13 indices adopted from the core indices developed by ETCCDMI with appropriate modifications to suit to the studied area. The series of the indices as well as their trends were generated using RClimDex software. The trends have been calculated using the linear mean square method. The findings are similar to those obtained at the global and European continental scales and the most noteworthy are: increasing trends dominate for the most of the indices, but only about 25% of them are statistically significant at α=0.05; decreasing trends are more specific to southern area of the country; decreasing trends of  R0.1, CDD and CWD dominate for the great majority of locations; the spatial distribution of the significant slopes in the area is extremely irregular.

  12. Change of Nosocomial Infection of Very Low or Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants in the Last 10 Years%极低和超低出生体质量儿医院感染的十年变迁

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴俊; 吴本清; 黄进洁; 罗亮; 陈霆

    2012-01-01

    目的 探讨新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)极低和超低出生体质量儿医院感染的流行病学情况及病原菌的变化趋势.方法 回顾性分析2001年1月-2010年12月在我院NICU住院的654例极低和超低出生体质量儿的医院感染发生情况,将发生医院感染的162例极低和超低出生体质量儿分为2001年1月-2005年12月和2006年1月-2010年12月两组,对比分析两组医院感染的发病率、感染疾病和病原菌的变迁.结果 第一组和第二组医院感染发生率分别为22.55%和26.01%,两者间差异无统计学意义(P>0.05).两组医院感染疾病均以肺炎为主,前后五年比较所占比例有所下降,但两者间差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);败血症的构成比由22.6%增加至38.5%,两者间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05).两组病原菌均以革兰阴性菌为主,前后五年构成比显示革兰阳性菌和真菌呈上升趋势,肺炎克雷伯杆菌成为第一位的医院感染致病菌,凝固酶阴性葡萄球菌明显上升,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05).结论 极低和超低出生体质量儿医院感染发生率有上升趋势,败血症构成比增加,应根据病原菌谱的变化合理应用抗生素.%To investigate the change trends of pathogens and epidemiological condition of nosocomial infection ( NI ) of very low or extremely low birth weight infants in neonate intensive care unit ( NICU ) . Methods The data of 654 very low or extremely low birth weight infants in NICU of our hospital from January 2001 to December 2010 were investigated retrospectively. The 162 infants diagnosed with nosocomial infection were divided into 2 groups according to their hospitalization periods ; from 2001 to 2005 ( group I ) and from 2006 to 2010 ( group H )The NI rate, infected site and pathogens were comparatively analyzed between the two groups. Results The NI rate was 22. 55% in group I and 26. 01% in group H , with no statistical difference (P>0.05). The most common infection

  13. Changes in lower extremity prosthetic practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trower, Ted A

    2006-02-01

    In recent years, much attention has been given to the revolution in new materials for prosthetics and the components that they have made possible. The average weight of a delivered prosthesis has decreased, currently available components offer improved function and superior symmetry of gait, and limb interfaces provide superior skin protection and comfort. The focus on the features of these components sometimes has led to neglect of the basic elements of prosthetic design--the fit and the alignment. If the fit and alignment are on the mark, an amputee can function at remarkably high levels with rudimentary components. This article discusses the basics of lower extremity prosthetic practice and addresses challenges for the future.

  14. Weight changes during chemotherapy for breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano José Megale Costa

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer have a tendency to gain weight. This tendency has determining factors not completely defined and an unknown prognostic impact. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate weight change during chemotherapy for breast cancer in a defined population and to identify its predisposing factors and possible prognostic significance. DESIGN: Observational, retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Private clinical oncology service. PARTICIPANTS: 106 consecutive patients with breast cancer treated between June 1994 and April 2000, who received neoadjuvant (n = 8, adjuvant (n = 74 or palliative (n = 24 chemotherapy. INTERVETION: Review of medical records and gathering of clinical information, including patients’ body weights before treatment and at follow-up reviews. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Body weight change, expressed as percentage of body weight per month in treatment; role of clinical data in weight change; and influence of weight change in overall survival and disease-free survival. RESULTS: There was a mean increase of 0.50 ± 1.42% (p = 0.21 of body weight per month of treatment. We noted a negative correlation between metastatic disease and weight gain (r = -0.447, p < 0.0001. In the adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapy groups there was a mean weight gain of 0.91 ± 1.19 % (p < 0.00001 per month, whereas in the metastatic (palliative group, we observed a mean loss of 0.52 ± 1.21% (p = 0.11 of body weight per month during the treatment. We did not observe any statistically significant correlation between weight changes and disease-free survival or overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Women with breast cancer undergoing adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy gain weight, whereas metastatic cancer patients will probably lose weight during palliative chemotherapy. Further studies are needed in order to evaluate the prognostic significance of weight changes during chemotherapy.

  15. Marrow signal mimicking tumor on MRI T1-weighted imaging after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in extremity osteosarcomas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiping Deng

    2017-03-01

    Conclusions: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy for extremity osteosarcoma can result in a variety of changes of the MRI appearance of tumor and adjacent bone and marrow. Areas of signal change beyond the tumor that represent marrow conversion and not tumor progression appear on T1 weighted imaging to be lower in signal than subcutaneous fat and higher in signal than muscle. Recognizing the existence of the effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy on the MR appearance of the tumor and surrounding bone and myeloid elements is important so as to plan for oncological sound tumor resections while avoiding resecting more normal bone than necessary.

  16. Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

    2016-04-01

    The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

  17. Trisomy 21 in one of extremely low birth weight twins

    OpenAIRE

    Solomon, Benjamin D.; Balachandar, Divya; Perry, Karen; Carrillo-Carrasco, Nuria; Markello, Thomas C.; Rais-Bahrami, Khodayar

    2008-01-01

    Prematurity is frequently seen in the neonatal intensive care unit, and trisomy 21 is an often diagnosed neonatal disorder. We report a unique case of extremely premature twins, one of whom was ultimately diagnosed with trisomy 21. We were able to examine the neonatal courses and outcomes of these twins, which were similar despite the presence of trisomy 21 in one twin. This is the first report comparing the neonatal course of an infant with trisomy 21 to an unaffected twin in patients born s...

  18. Psychosocial work environment factors and weight change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram Quist, Helle; Christensen, Ulla; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Lifestyle variables may serve as important intermediate factors between psychosocial work environment and health outcomes. Previous studies, focussing on work stress models have shown mixed and weak results in relation to weight change. This study aims to investigate psychosocial...... factors outside the classical work stress models as potential predictors of change in body mass index (BMI) in a population of health care workers. METHODS: A cohort study, with three years follow-up, was conducted among Danish health care workers (3982 women and 152 men). Logistic regression analyses...... predicted weight loss among men. Associations were generally weak, with the exception of quality of leadership, age, and cohabitation. CONCLUSION: This study of a single occupational group suggested a few new risk factors for weight change outside the traditional work stress models....

  19. Green teeth are a late complication of prolonged conjugated hyperbilirubinemia in extremely low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battineni, Sireesha; Clarke, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Eruption of green, discolored teeth affecting the primary dentition has been described in association with congenital viral infection, sepsis, hemolytic jaundice, and cholestasis. The purpose of this paper was to present the cases of 3 extremely low birth weight preterm infants who were noted to have green teeth at the corrected ages of 10 to 12 months. All had a history of prolonged conjugated hyperbilirubinemia during their time in neonatal intensive care. For infants with prolonged conjugated hyperbilirubinemia, extreme preterm birth and/or extremely low birth weight may be additional risk factors predisposing to the eruption of green teeth in later infancy.

  20. Delivery of the extremely low-birth- weight vertex-presenting baby ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-12-02

    Dec 2, 2010 ... both mother and baby when delivery of an extremely low- birth-weight infant is inevitable. Over the past few decades there has been a sharp rise in the .... there was any advantage for very-low-birth-weight babies delivered by ...

  1. Autonomic Functioning in Young Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight

    OpenAIRE

    Karen J. Mathewson PhD; Ryan J. Van Lieshout MD, PhD; Saroj Saigal MD; Katherine M. Morrison MD; Michael H. Boyle PhD; Louis A. Schmidt PhD

    2015-01-01

    Autonomic functioning is altered in infants born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; 2500 g). HF in the smallest-born ELBW participants was significantly lower than in NBW controls. In both groups, greater birth weight was associated with higher HF. Among ELBW survivors, lower birth weight predicted faster heart rate and higher DBP, but neither heart rate nor DBP appeared to be well-coordinated with baroreflex activity (LF), the principal mechanism for short-term blood pressure regulation. A...

  2. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  3. The Statistical Mechanics of Human Weight Change

    CERN Document Server

    Lang, John C; Abrams, Daniel M

    2016-01-01

    In the context of the global obesity epidemic, it is important to know who becomes obese and why. However, the processes that determine the changing shape of Body Mass Index (BMI) distributions in high-income societies are not well-understood. Here we establish the statistical mechanics of human weight change, providing a fundamental new understanding of human weight distributions. By compiling and analysing the largest data set so far of year-over-year BMI changes, we find, strikingly, that heavy people on average strongly decrease their weight year-over-year, and light people increase their weight. This drift towards the centre of the BMI distribution is balanced by diffusion resulting from random fluctuations in diet and physical activity that are, notably, proportional in size to BMI. We formulate a stochastic mathematical model for BMI dynamics, deriving a theoretical shape for the BMI distribution and offering a mechanism to explain the ongoing right-skewed broadening of BMI distributions over time. The...

  4. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... by extreme precipitation pose a threat to human life and cause high economic losses for society. Thus, strategies to adapt to changes in extreme precipitation are currently being developed and established worldwide. Information on the expected changes in extreme precipitation is required for the development...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...

  5. [Changes in body composition during an extreme endurance run].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knechtle, B; Bircher, S

    2005-03-09

    We measured before, during and after a six-day-run in one athlete body weight, skinfold thickness, circumference of extremities, energy expenditure and nutritional intake. Despite an increased fat and protein intake during the race we found a significantly decrease in adipose subcutaneous tissue of the whole body and muscle mass in the active limbs whereas body weight remained stable. We presume that during running as eccentric exercise subcutaneous adipose tissue and muscle mass will be oxidised.

  6. Haptic biofeedback for improving compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Michael C; DeLuke, Levi; Buerba, Rafael A; Fan, Richard E; Zheng, Ying Jean; Leslie, Michael P; Baumgaertner, Michael R; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2014-11-01

    After lower-extremity orthopedic trauma and surgery, patients are often advised to restrict weight bearing on the affected limb. Conventional training methods are not effective at enabling patients to comply with recommendations for partial weight bearing. The current study assessed a novel method of using real-time haptic (vibratory/vibrotactile) biofeedback to improve compliance with instructions for partial weight bearing. Thirty healthy, asymptomatic participants were randomized into 1 of 3 groups: verbal instruction, bathroom scale training, and haptic biofeedback. Participants were instructed to restrict lower-extremity weight bearing in a walking boot with crutches to 25 lb, with an acceptable range of 15 to 35 lb. A custom weight bearing sensor and biofeedback system was attached to all participants, but only those in the haptic biofeedback group were given a vibrotactile signal if they exceeded the acceptable range. Weight bearing in all groups was measured with a separate validated commercial system. The verbal instruction group bore an average of 60.3±30.5 lb (mean±standard deviation). The bathroom scale group averaged 43.8±17.2 lb, whereas the haptic biofeedback group averaged 22.4±9.1 lb (Pbiofeedback group averaged 14.5±6.3% (Pbiofeedback to improve compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing, haptic biofeedback was superior to conventional physical therapy methods. Further studies in patients with clinical orthopedic trauma are warranted.

  7. Additional Protein Fortification Is Necessary in Extremely Low-Birth-Weight Infants Fed Human Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picaud, Jean-Charles; Houeto, Nellie; Buffin, Rachel; Loys, Claire-Marie; Godbert, Isabelle; Haÿs, Stephane

    2016-07-01

    In the present study, approximately one in three (49/152, 32.2%) extremely low-birth-weight infants were demonstrated to require additional protein intake to supplement the standard fortification to achieve satisfactory weight gain. This additional protein fortification also resulted in a rapid increase in length-for-age (P < 0.001) and head circumference-for-age (P = 0.02) z scores.

  8. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  9. Compound extremes in a changing climate - a Markov chain approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Mieruch, Sebastian; Schädler, Gerd; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2016-11-01

    Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951-2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971-2000, 2021-2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

  10. Chronic lower extremity lymphedema: A comparative study of high-resolution interstitial MR lymphangiography and heavily T2-weighted MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu Qing [Department of Radiology, Shanghai Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 1630 Dong Fang Rd, Shanghai 200127 (China)], E-mail: luqingshan@sjtu.edu.cn; Xu Jianrong [Department of Radiology, Shanghai Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 1630 Dong Fang Rd, Shanghai 200127 (China)], E-mail: jiangrongx@hotmail.com; Liu Ningfei [Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai 9th People' s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai Second Medical University, 639 Zhi Zao Ju Rd, Shanghai 200011 (China)], E-mail: luqing_1973@163.com

    2010-02-15

    Purpose: To assess the role of heavily T2-weighted image and interstitial MR lymphangiography (MRL) for the visualization of lymphatic vessels in patients with disorders of the lymphatic circulation. Methods: Forty lower extremities in 31 patients (9 bilateral and 22 unilateral) with primary lymphedema were examined by heavily T2-weighted image and indirect MRL. Maximum-intensity projection (MIP) was used to reconstruct the images of the lymphatic system. Two experienced radiologists analyzed the images with regard to the differences in image quality, number of lymphatic vessels, its maximum diameter and two other findings: accumulated lymph fluid in the tissue and honeycombing pattern. Results: The beaded appearance of the affected vessels in 73 leg segments of 40 lower extremities were present on both modalities 3D MIP. Larger amount of the dilated lymphatic vessels were visualized on heavily T2-weighted image than that on MRL (p = 0.003) and the maximum diameter of it was 4.28 {+-} 1.53 mm on heavily T2-weighted image, whereas 3.41 {+-} 1.05 mm on MRL (p < 0.01). The dilated lymphatic vessels on MRL showed better image quality and greater SNR and CNR than that on heavily T2-weighted image (p < 0.01). The regions of accumulated lymph fluid and the honeycombing pattern extent were identified on heavily T2-weighted image scored statistically higher than that on MRL (p < 0.01). Conclusion: The heavily T2-weighted imaging has greater sensitivity and the MRL image has higher legibility for detecting the pathologically modified lymphatic vessels and accompanying complications non-invasively. Combining these two MR techniques can accurately access the pathological changes in the lower extremity with lymphedema.

  11. Extreme Weight-Control Behaviors and Suicide Risk among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Emily R.; Weiler, Robert M.; Barnett, Tracey E.; Pealer, Lisa N.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Suicide is the third leading cause of death for people ages 15-19. Research has established an association across numerous risk factors and suicide, including depression, substance abuse, bullying victimization, and feelings of alienation. However, the connection between disordered eating as manifested in extreme weight-control…

  12. Serum magnesium in the first week of life in extremely low birth weight infants.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Noone, D

    2012-01-01

    Evidence that antenatal administration of magnesium sulfate (MgSO(4)) to women in preterm labor may confer fetal neuroprotection is growing. MgSO(4) crosses the placenta and can affect the neonate. Magnesium homeostasis in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants remains to be clarified.

  13. General movements in the first fourteen days of life in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, N. K. S.; Erwich, J. J. H. M.; Bos, A. F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess the quality of general movements (GMs) in the first fourteen days of life in relation to obstetric and postnatal risk factors and neurodevelopmental outcome in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. Study design: The GMs of nineteen infants were assessed on days 2, 4, 6, 10

  14. Extreme Weight-Control Behaviors and Suicide Risk among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Emily R.; Weiler, Robert M.; Barnett, Tracey E.; Pealer, Lisa N.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Suicide is the third leading cause of death for people ages 15-19. Research has established an association across numerous risk factors and suicide, including depression, substance abuse, bullying victimization, and feelings of alienation. However, the connection between disordered eating as manifested in extreme weight-control…

  15. Does Extremely Low Birth Weight Predispose to Low-Renin Hypertension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raaijmakers, Anke; Zhang, Zhen-Yu; Claessens, Jolien; Cauwenberghs, Nicholas; van Tienoven, Theun Pieter; Wei, Fang-Fei; Jacobs, Lotte; Levtchenko, Elena; Pauwels, Steven; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Allegaert, Karel; Staessen, Jan A

    2017-03-01

    Low birth weight and prematurity are risk factors for hypertension in adulthood. Few studies in preterm or full-term born children reported on plasma renin activity (PRA). We tested the hypothesis that renin might modulate the incidence of hypertension associated with prematurity. We enrolled 93 prematurely born children with birth weight hypertension associated with extreme low birth weight were 6.43 (2.52-16.4; Phypertension, but does not affect the inverse association between PRA and BP. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02147457. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. Controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmild, Mette; Zhu, Minyan

    2016-01-01

    the financial crisis, we illustrate the impact of the proposed weight restrictions in two different efficiency models; one related to banks’ funding mix and one related to their asset mix. The results show that using a more balanced set of weights tend to reduce the estimated efficiency scores more for those...... banks which were bailed out during the crisis, which confirms the potential bias within standard DEA that does not control for extreme weights applied by highly risky banks. We discuss the use of the proposed method as a regulatory tool to constrain discretion when complying with regulatory capital...... benchmarks such as the Basel regulatory capital ratios....

  17. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Hoang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions. Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location. Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

  18. Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Fang; Zhang, Wei; Liang, Yu;

    2012-01-01

    Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are lar...

  19. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phi Hoang, Long; Lauri, Hannu; Kummu, Matti; Koponen, Jorma; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Supit, Iwan; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-07-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.

  20. Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Chen

    Full Text Available Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are largely unknown. To obtain a more complete picture of the transcriptional regulatory landscape and networks involved in extreme altitude response, we followed four climbers on an expedition up Mount Xixiabangma (8,012 m, and collected blood samples at four stages during the climb for mRNA and miRNA expression assays. By analyzing dynamic changes of gene networks in response to extreme altitudes, we uncovered a highly modular network with 7 modules of various functions that changed in response to extreme altitudes. The erythrocyte differentiation module is the most prominently up-regulated, reflecting increased erythrocyte differentiation from hematopoietic stem cells, probably at the expense of differentiation into other cell lineages. These changes are accompanied by coordinated down-regulation of general translation. Network topology and flow analyses also uncovered regulators known to modulate hypoxia responses and erythrocyte development, as well as unknown regulators, such as the OCT4 gene, an important regulator in stem cells and assumed to only function in stem cells. We predicted computationally and validated experimentally that increased OCT4 expression at extreme altitude can directly elevate the expression of hemoglobin genes. Our approach established a new framework for analyzing the transcriptional regulatory network from a very limited number of samples.

  1. Importance of early weight change in a pediatric weight management trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Stein, Richard I; Saelens, Brian E; Theim, Kelly R; Epstein, Leonard H; Wilfley, Denise E

    2011-07-01

    Early weight change is associated with overall weight loss treatment response in adults but has been relatively unexplored in youth. We investigated the importance of early weight change in a pediatric weight control trial. Overweight children aged 7 to 12 years (n=204) participated in a randomized controlled trial of 2 weight maintenance treatments (MTs) after a 20-week family-based behavioral weight loss treatment (FBT). Hierarchical regression was used to investigate the relation between children's percentage weight change at sessions 4, 6, and 8 of FBT and BMI z-score reductions after FBT and at the 2-year follow-up. Correlations and hierarchical regression were used to identify child and parent factors associated with children's early weight change. Children's percentage weight change by FBT session 8 was the best predictor of BMI z-score reductions after FBT and at 2-year follow-up. Percentage weight change in children at session 8 was associated with better FBT attendance and with greater percentage weight change in parents at FBT session 8. Early weight change seems to be related to treatment response through the end of treatment and 2-year follow-up. Future research should include investigation of strategies to promote early weight change in children and parents and identification of mechanisms through which early weight change is related to overall treatment response. Copyright © 2011 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  2. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, P.L.; Lauri, P.; Kummu, M.; Koponen, J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Supit, I.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrologic

  3. Changes in body weight and pulse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seimon, R V; Espinoza, D; Finer, N

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined the rela......BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined...... included in this current subanalysis of the SCOUT trial. Subjects were required to have a history of cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, to assess cardiovascular outcomes. The primary outcome event (POE) was a composite of nonfatal myocardial...... rate and changes in pulse rate may not be an important modifier nor a clinically useful predictor of outcome in an individual elderly cardiovascular obese subject exposed to weight management....

  4. Asymptotically extremal polynomials with respect to varying weights and application to Sobolev orthogonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz Mendoza, C.; Orive, R.; Pijeira Cabrera, H.

    2008-10-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of the zeros of a sequence of polynomials whose weighted norms, with respect to a sequence of weight functions, have the same nth root asymptotic behavior as the weighted norms of certain extremal polynomials. This result is applied to obtain the (contracted) weak zero distribution for orthogonal polynomials with respect to a Sobolev inner product with exponential weights of the form e-[phi](x), giving a unified treatment for the so-called Freud (i.e., when [phi] has polynomial growth at infinity) and Erdös (when [phi] grows faster than any polynomial at infinity) cases. In addition, we provide a new proof for the bound of the distance of the zeros to the convex hull of the support for these Sobolev orthogonal polynomials.

  5. College Freshman Stress and Weight Change: Differences by Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economos, Christina D.; Hildebrandt, M. Lise; Hyatt, Raymond R.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: To examine how stress and health-related behaviors affect freshman weight change by gender. Methods: Three hundred ninety-six freshmen completed a 40-item health behavior survey and height and weight were collected at baseline and follow-up. Results: Average weight change was 5.04 lbs for males, 5.49 lbs for females. Weight gain was…

  6. College Freshman Stress and Weight Change: Differences by Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economos, Christina D.; Hildebrandt, M. Lise; Hyatt, Raymond R.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: To examine how stress and health-related behaviors affect freshman weight change by gender. Methods: Three hundred ninety-six freshmen completed a 40-item health behavior survey and height and weight were collected at baseline and follow-up. Results: Average weight change was 5.04 lbs for males, 5.49 lbs for females. Weight gain was…

  7. Propagation of precipitation extremes into discharge extremes in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean basins are characterized by high precipitation variability, which presents strong seasonality, large inter-annual fluctuations and spatial variations during single events, and by wide spatial differences of terrain and surface properties. As a consequence, these catchments are often prone to the occurrence of hydro-meteorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. Several climate projections in this area predict a general exacerbation of intensity and frequency of extreme events, thus requiring further analyses to evaluate their impact at the land surface, especially in relatively small watersheds. In this study, we used climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) research project to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes under changing climate conditions in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5 km2), an agricultural watershed located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000; REF) and a future (2041-2070; FUT) period was simulated by using four combinations of global and regional climate models (CMs), statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We first conducted statistical analyses based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution on precipitation annual maxima at different durations (daily and hourly), extracted from the grids of the four selected CMs. Results show high uncertainties in climate projections, with GEV parameters differing among CMs, REF and FUT periods, and time duration. Subsequently, we fitted the GEV distribution to the series of maximum annual discharge data at daily and hourly duration, simulated by the hydrologic model at distributed basin locations. The analyses reveal that sub-basins characterized by lower slope and dominated by more impermeable soils have higher probabilities of extreme event occurrence than steeper

  8. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  9. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  10. Uncertainties of Assessing Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Barsugli, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Water resource managers share a common challenge in understanding what climate change could mean for future hydroclimate extremes. Understanding the uncertainty of projected changes in extremes is critical to making decisions about whether to invest in adaptation measures today or delay until more credible information becomes available. Uncertainties arise from several methodological choices including, including criteria that drive selection of global climate projection information to frame the assessment, whether and how to bias-correct global projection information, and how to represent local controls on how to spatially downscale translations of these projections. This presentation highlights such uncertainties, focusing on projected changes in precipitation indicated by two metrics: annual total and annual maximum daily amount. Attention is given to metric conditions varying from typical (i.e. metrics having 0.50 cumulative probability) to extreme (i.e. annual totals having 0.01 and 0.05 cumulative probabilities, which are relevant to drought, and annual maximum daily amounts having 0.95 and 0.99 cumulative probabilities, which are relevant to floods). The assessment is informed by an ensemble of 53 daily CMIP3 precipitation projections from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" web-archive (see URL), regridded over the contiguous United States from native climate model resolution to a common 2° grid and reported during 1961-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Focusing on changes between 20-year periods, evaluations include (a) assessing changes in typical metric conditions and determining whether changes in metric distributions are statistically significant, (b) characterizing metric extremes using parametric techniques and assessing for changes in metric extremes, (c) assessing how uncertainties in projected typical and extreme metrics associate with three sources of global climate projection uncertainty (emissions scenario, global

  11. [Hormonal changes in response to extreme environment factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koubassov, R V

    2014-01-01

    In this paper presented current state about hormonal changes in sympathetic-adrenal, hypophysis-adrenal, hypophysis-gonads and thyroid levels from extreme environment factors. It's shown that hypophysis gonads and thyroid endocrine links along with sympathetic adrenal, hypophysis adrenal axes are very important relevance in response to extreme environment factors and organism adaptation. In this time a hormonal secretion changes corresponds as interrelated reactions cascade in mechanisms of homeostasis maintenance. A studying of this mechanisms and revealing of its role in stress pathogenesis is fundamental biomedical investigation task. A problem solving allow to perfect prophylactic and treatment methods against stress diseases.

  12. Postnatal transitional weight loss and adverse outcomes in extremely premature neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita P. Verma

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The early postnatal weight loss (EPWL is highly variable in the extremely low birth weight infants (birth weight <1000 g, ELBW. It is reported to be unassociated with adverse outcomes within a range of 3- 21% of birth weight. Its wide range might have contributed to this lack of association. The aim of our paper is to study the effects of maximum EPWL, graded as low, medium and large on clinical outcomes in ELBW infants. In a retrospective cohort observational study EPWL was measured as maximum weight loss from birth weight (MWL in ELBW infants and grouped as low (5-12% moderate (18.1-12% and high (18-25%. The clinical course and complications of infants were compared between the groups. Gestational age (GA was highest and surfactant administration, peak inspiratory pressure requirement, fluid intake, urinary output, oxygen dependent days and the number of oxygen dependent infants at age 28 days were lower in the low MWL compared to the high MWL group. However, all these significant P-values declined after controlling for GA. Diabetes mellitus and pregnancy associated hypertension were not noted in mothers in high MWL group, whereas 38% of mothers in low MWL group suffered from the latter (P=0.05. Maximum postnatal transitional weight loss, assessed in the range of low, moderate and high, is not associated with adverse outcomes independent of gestational age in ELBW infants. Maternal hypertension decreases EPWL in them.

  13. Changes in extreme dry and wet precipitation spell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Onof, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to alter the behavior of hydroclimatic variables in various ways. Therefore, it is of great importance not only to identify which hydroclimatic variables are going through changes but also which of their specific characteristics change and in what way. For example the major focus regarding precipitation has been on changes or trends in extreme events or in annual totals, obviously, not without a reason. Yet one of the aspects of precipitation we believe is of equal importance and has not been extensively studied is extreme dry and wet spells. Changes in dry and wet spells can severely impact all aspects of human lives, ranging from infrastructure planning and water resources management to agriculture and infectious disease spread. In this study we perform an extensive analysis of extreme dry and wet precipitation spells using tenths of thousands of daily precipitation records in order to identify trends or variability changes in the maximum number of consecutive dry or wet days of each year. Our final goal is to evaluate the percentage of stations globally with positive/negative trends either in the mean value or in variability of extreme dry and wet spells and assess if this percentage is statistically justifiable.

  14. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.

  15. Thyroid hormones and changes in body weight and metabolic parameters in response to weight loss diets: the POUNDS LOST trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, G; Liang, L; Bray, G A; Qi, L; Hu, F B; Rood, J; Sacks, F M; Sun, Q

    2017-06-01

    The role of thyroid hormones in diet-induced weight loss and subsequent weight regain is largely unknown. To examine the associations between thyroid hormones and changes in body weight and resting metabolic rate (RMR) in a diet-induced weight loss setting. Data analysis was conducted among 569 overweight and obese participants aged 30-70 years with normal thyroid function participating in the 2-year Prevention of Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS) LOST randomized clinical trial. Changes in body weight and RMR were assessed during the 2-year intervention. Thyroid hormones (free triiodothyronine (T3), free thyroxine (T4), total T3, total T4 and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)), anthropometric measurements and biochemical parameters were assessed at baseline, 6 months and 24 months. Participants lost an average of 6.6 kg of body weight during the first 6 months and subsequently regained an average of 2.7 kg of body weight over the remaining period from 6 to 24 months. Baseline free T3 and total T3 were positively associated, whereas free T4 was inversely associated, with baseline body weight, body mass index and RMR. Total T4 and TSH were not associated with these parameters. Higher baseline free T3 and free T4 levels were significantly associated with a greater weight loss during the first 6 months (Pweight. Comparing extreme tertiles, the multivariate-adjusted weight loss±s.e. was -3.87±0.9 vs -5.39±0.9 kg for free T3 (Ptrend=0.02) and -4.09±0.9 vs -5.88±0.9 kg for free T4 (Ptrend=0.004). The thyroid hormones did not predict weight regain in 6-24 months. A similar pattern of associations was also observed between baseline thyroid hormones and changes in RMR. In addition, changes in free T3 and total T3 levels were positively associated with changes in body weight, RMR, body fat mass, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, triglycerides and leptin at 6 months and 24 months (all Pweight loss setting, higher baseline free T3 and free T4

  16. The 2015 Oklahoma extreme precipitation: attribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, J.; Sobel, A. H.; Shaevitz, D.

    2016-12-01

    In a warming climate precipitation extremes increase disproportionally faster than the mean precipitation does. However, there are large uncertainties of the paces of the precipitation extreme increases among General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the tropics and subtropics, largely due to the deficiencies of convective parameterizations. A hierarchy of models, including regional models and cloud resolving models (CRM) with high resolutions to explicitly resolve convection, can provide insights to better constrain the GCM simulations. In this study, we apply a novel CRM modeling approach, the Column Quasi-Geostrophic (CQG) method, to examine responses of precipitation extreme to climate changes. The CQG approach uses a CRM in a relatively small domain with the large-scale vertical motion, which determines vertical advection of temperature and moisture, incorporated using the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Comparing with other CRM studies that prescribe the large-scale vertical motion, this method allows us to examine the dynamical component of precipitation increases (, to which the GCMs largely disagree with each other) to warming in addition to the thermodynamical component of increases (about 7% per K). We model the 2015 Oklahoma extreme rainfall event with CQG method, with the present climate and two counterfactual environments representing the pre-industry and an even warmer climate. Results are analyzed to attribute the extreme precipitation to climate changes, and to quantify the involved mechanisms.

  17. Weight Changes following the Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivarius, Niels de Fine; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Køster-Rasmussen, Rasmus;

    2015-01-01

    Aims: The association between recent and more distant weight changes before and after the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes has been little researched. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of patients’ weight history before diabetes diagnosis on the observed 6-year weight changes after...... diagnosis. Methods: A clinical cohort study combined with self-reported past weight history. In total 885 patients aged ≥40 years and newly diagnosed with clinical type 2 diabetes were included. Body weight was measured immediately after diabetes diagnosis and again at the 6-year follow up examination...... weight change after diagnosis. Conclusions: During the first on average 5.7 years after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, patients generally follow a course of declining average weight, and these weight developments are related primarily to recent weight changes, body mass index, and age, but not to the more...

  18. Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhe; Yang, Zhiyong; Yan, Denghua; Yin, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

  19. Beyond bacteria: a study of the enteric microbial consortium in extremely low birth weight infants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Susan LaTuga

    Full Text Available Extremely low birth weight (ELBW infants have high morbidity and mortality, frequently due to invasive infections from bacteria, fungi, and viruses. The microbial communities present in the gastrointestinal tracts of preterm infants may serve as a reservoir for invasive organisms and remain poorly characterized. We used deep pyrosequencing to examine the gut-associated microbiome of 11 ELBW infants in the first postnatal month, with a first time determination of the eukaryote microbiota such as fungi and nematodes, including bacteria and viruses that have not been previously described. Among the fungi observed, Candida sp. and Clavispora sp. dominated the sequences, but a range of environmental molds were also observed. Surprisingly, seventy-one percent of the infant fecal samples tested contained ribosomal sequences corresponding to the parasitic organism Trichinella. Ribosomal DNA sequences for the roundworm symbiont Xenorhabdus accompanied these sequences in the infant with the greatest proportion of Trichinella sequences. When examining ribosomal DNA sequences in aggregate, Enterobacteriales, Pseudomonas, Staphylococcus, and Enterococcus were the most abundant bacterial taxa in a low diversity bacterial community (mean Shannon-Weaver Index of 1.02 ± 0.69, with relatively little change within individual infants through time. To supplement the ribosomal sequence data, shotgun sequencing was performed on DNA from multiple displacement amplification (MDA of total fecal genomic DNA from two infants. In addition to the organisms mentioned previously, the metagenome also revealed sequences for gram positive and gram negative bacteriophages, as well as human adenovirus C. Together, these data reveal surprising eukaryotic and viral microbial diversity in ELBW enteric microbiota dominated bytypes of bacteria known to cause invasive disease in these infants.

  20. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hoang, L.P.; H. Lauri; M. Kummu; Koponen, J.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; I. Supit; Leemans, R.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrologica...

  1. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  2. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  3. Changing step width alters lower extremity biomechanics during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brindle, Richard A; Milner, Clare E; Zhang, Songning; Fitzhugh, Eugene C

    2014-01-01

    Step width is a spatiotemporal parameter that may influence lower extremity biomechanics at the hip and knee joint. The purpose of this study was to determine the biomechanical response of the lower extremity joints to step width changes during running. Lower extremity data from 30 healthy runners, half of them male, were collected during running in three step width conditions: preferred, wide, and narrow. Dependent variables and step width were analyzed using a mixed model ANOVA and pairwise t-tests for post hoc comparisons. Step width was successfully altered in the wide and narrow conditions. Generally, frontal plane peak values decreased as step width increased from narrow to preferred to wide. Peak hip adduction and rearfoot eversion angles decreased as step width increased from narrow to wide. Peak knee abduction moment and knee abduction impulse also decreased as step width increased from narrow to wide. Although men and women ran differently, gender only influenced the effect of step width on peak rearfoot inversion moment. In conclusion, step width influences lower extremity biomechanics in healthy runners. When step width increased from narrow to wide, peak values of frontal plane variables decreased. In addition to previously reported changes at the rearfoot, the hip and knee joint biomechanics were also influenced by changes in step width.

  4. Wind Turbine Extreme Gust Control. Recognition and Control of extreme operation gusts and wind direction changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanev, S.K.; Van Engelen, T.G. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

    2008-10-15

    This report presents the research activities and achieved results on extreme event recognition (EER) and control (EEC). This work has been performed within the framework of WP3 of the SenterNovem project Sustainable Control (SusCon). An extreme wind gust with direction change can lead to large loads on the turbine (causing fatigue) and unnecessary turbine shut-downs by the supervisory system due to rotor overspeed. The proposed EER algorithm is based on a nonlinear observer (extended Kalman filter) that estimates the oblique wind inflow angle and the blade effective wind speed signals, which are then used by a detection algorithm (CUSUM test) to recognize extreme events. The nonlinear observer requires that blade root bending moments measurements (in-plane and out-of-plane) are available. Once an extreme event is detected, an EEC algorithm is activated that (1) tries to prevent the rotor speed from exceeding the overspeed limit by fast collective blade pitching, and (2) reduces 1p blade loads by means of individual pitch control algorithm, designed in an H1 optimal control setting. The method is demonstrated on a complex nonlinear test turbine model.

  5. Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujing Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the

  6. The Effect of the Weight of Equipment on Muscle Activity of the Lower Extremity in Soldiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lindner

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to their profession and the tasks it entails, soldiers are exposed to high levels of physical activity and strain. This can result in overexertion and pain in the locomotor system, partly caused by carrying items of equipment. The aim of this study was to analyse the extent of muscle activity in the lower extremities caused by carrying specific items of equipment. For this purpose, the activity of selected groups of muscles caused by different items of equipment (helmet, carrying strap, backpack, and rifle in the upper and lower leg was measured by recording dynamic surface electromyograms. Electrogoniometers were also used to measure the angle of the knee over the entire gait cycle. In addition to measuring muscle activity, the study also aimed to determine out what influence increasing weight load has on the range of motion (ROM of the knee joint during walking. The activity of recorded muscles of the lower extremity, that is, the tibialis anterior, peroneus longus, gastrocnemius lateralis, gastrocnemius medialis, rectus femoris, and biceps femoris, was found to depend on the weight of the items of equipment. There was no evidence, however, that items of equipment weighing a maximum of 34% of their carrier’s body weight had an effect on the ROM of the knee joint.

  7. The effect of increase in baggage weight on elderly women's lower extremity muscle activation during gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong-Gil; Nam, Chan-Woo; Yong, Min-Sik

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of increased baggage weight on the muscle activation of elderly women's lower extremities during gait. A total of 24 elderly women who were residing in communities in Daegu, South Korea aged 79.6±6.2, 149.7±7.0cm in height, and 53.5±7.2kg in weight participated in this study. The muscle activation of each muscle was measured three times at 2kg, 3kg, and 4kg of baggage weight while the subjects were conducting treadmill walking wearing backpacks. Electrodes were placed on four muscles: the quadriceps muscle (rectus femoris), the hamstring muscle (semitendinosus), the tibialis anterior muscle, and the soleus muscle. The results show that the rates of increase in muscle activation in the tibialis anterior and soleus muscles according to baggage weight increase were higher than those in the quadriceps and hamstring muscles (<0.05). These results indicate that the heavier weight loads increase the activation of muscles that control the ankle joints causing muscle fatigue. Moreover, a decrease in balance ability through muscle fatigue can be a risk factor for falls. Thus, elderly people should be instructed not to carry heavy objects.

  8. Developmental coordination disorder in extremely low birth weight children at nine years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holsti, Liisa; Grunau, Ruth V E; Whitfield, Michael F

    2002-02-01

    Developmental coordination disorder (DCD) is defined as an impairment in the development of motor coordination that interferes with academic achievement or activities of daily living (DSM-IV). DCD has been reported to affect 5% to 9% of children in the normal population. This study describes the prevalence of DCD in a cohort of extremely low birth weight children (ELBW, DCD. ELBW children with DCD also had significantly lower Performance IQ (PIQ) scores and were more likely (43%) to have a learning difficulty in arithmetic than ELBW children who did not have DCD. This study found that DCD is a common problem in school-aged ELBW children.

  9. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate change caused increased

  10. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  11. Weight Change Trajectories After Incident Lower-Limb Amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouldin, Erin D; Thompson, Mary Lou; Boyko, Edward J; Morgenroth, David C; Littman, Alyson J

    2016-01-01

    To characterize weight change after amputation by identifying typical weight trajectories in men with incident lower-limb amputation (LLA) and describing characteristics associated with each trajectory. Retrospective cohort study and analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Administrative data. Veterans who were men (N=759), living in the Northwest United States, and who had an incident toe, foot, or leg amputation between 1997 and 2008 and at least 18 months of amputation-free survival thereafter. Not applicable. Postamputation weight and body mass index change. The mean weight at baseline was 91.6±24 kg (202±53 lb), and average follow-up was 2.4 years. We identified 4 trajectory groups for weight change: weight loss (13%), stable weight (47%), slow weight gain (33%), and rapid weight gain (7%). Men with a toe or foot amputation most frequently were assigned to the stable weight group (58%), whereas men with transtibial or transfemoral amputations were most commonly assigned to the slow weight gain group (42% each). Men who died during follow-up were more likely to be assigned to the weight loss group (24%) than men who did not die (11%). We identified distinct weight change trajectories that represent heterogeneity in weight change after LLA. An improved understanding of factors predictive of weight gain or loss in people with LLA may help better target rehabilitation and prosthetic prescription. Additional research is needed to fully understand the relation between weight change and health status after amputation. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

  13. Understanding Changes in frequency of extreme rainfall over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, C. B.; Lall, U.

    2010-12-01

    There has been much recent interest in examining changes in rainfall extremes of the Indian Monsoon, especially over the so-called core monsoon (Central Indian) region. Few such studies however consider the attribution to climatic variables (indices) of the observed variability. Using gridded daily rainfall data from 1901-2004, an attempt is made here to understand the evolution of frequency of extreme rainfall over the core monsoon region, and its relationship to relevant climatic indices(Equatorial India Ocean SST, an index of the Indian Ocean Dipole, NINO indices (NINO 3.4 and 1.2)). Using an objective definition of "extreme rainfall"( such that the thresholds chosen vary with grids but not overtime), two types of analyses are carried out. First, using spectral analyses (Wavelet and Multi-Taper), the relationship between climate indices and frequency of extremes are investigated. Subsequently, in a very general framework of quantile regression for count data, the existence of time trends are analyzed jointly with significance of climate indices at distinct quantiles. This approach allows for separate effects of the climate indices at different quanitles, thereby allowing for a more detailed investigation of the various relationships of interest postulated in the literature.

  14. Maternal weight change between 1 and 2 years postpartum: the importance of 1 year weight retention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipsky, Leah M; Strawderman, Myla S; Olson, Christine M

    2012-07-01

    Pregnancy weight gain may lead to long-term increases in maternal BMI for some women. The objective of this study was to examine maternal body weight change 1y-2y postpartum, and to compare classifications of 2y weight retention with and without accounting for 1y-2y weight gain. Early pregnancy body weight (EPW, first trimester) was measured or imputed, and follow-up measures obtained before delivery, 1 year postpartum (1y) and 2 years postpartum (2y) in an observational cohort study of women seeking prenatal care in several counties in upstate New York (n = 413). Baseline height was measured; demographic and behavioral data were obtained from questionnaires and medical records. Associations of 1y-2y weight change (kg) and 1y-2y weight gain (≥2.25 kg) with anthropometric, socioeconomic, and behavioral variables were evaluated using linear and logistic regressions. While mean ± SE 1y-2y weight change was 0.009 ± 4.6 kg, 1y-2y weight gain (≥2.25 kg) was common (n = 108, 26%). Odds of weight gain 1y-2y were higher for overweight (OR(adj) = 2.63, CI(95%) = 1.43-4.82) and obese (OR(adj) = 2.93, CI(95%) = 1.62-5.27) women than for women with BMI change (β(adj) ± SE = -0.28 ± 0.04, P change were attenuated for women with higher early pregnancy BMI. Weight change 1y-2y was predicted primarily by an inverse relation with 1y weight retention. The high frequency of weight gain has important implications for classification of postpartum weight retention.

  15. Weight Change Following US Military Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-10

    greater prevalence of overweight and/or obesity than non-veterans of similar age and sex.4 - 7 This paradox suggests that the rate of weight gain...SylveSt~ Road . ... Stm Diego, Caljfomia 92106-3521 . . . International Journal of Obesity (20 1 2) 1 10 © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Umited All rights...Powell3 and TC Smith3 for the Millennium Cohort Study Team BACKGROUND: Although overweight and obesity are less prevalent among active-duty military

  16. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.

    2016-09-01

    Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950-2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century.

  17. Weight Watchers on prescription: An observational study of weight change among adults referred to Weight Watchers by the NHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aston Louise M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The scale of overweight and obesity in the UK places a considerable burden on the NHS. In some areas the NHS has formed partnerships with commercial companies to offer weight management services, but there has been little evaluation of these schemes. This study is an independent audit of the Weight Watchers NHS Referral scheme and evaluates the weight change of obese and overweight adults referred to Weight Watchers (WW by the NHS. Method Data was obtained from the WW NHS Referral Scheme database for 29,326 referral courses started after 2nd April 2007 and ending before 6th October 2009 [90% female; median age 49 years (IQR 38 - 61 years; median BMI 35.1 kg/m2 (IQR 31.8 - 39.5 kg/m2. Participants received vouchers (funded by the PCT following referral by a healthcare professional to attend 12 WW meetings. Body weight was measured at WW meetings and relayed to the central database. Results Median weight change for all referrals was -2.8 kg [IQR -5.9 - -0.7 kg] representing -3.1% initial weight. 33% of all courses resulted in loss of ≥5% initial weight. 54% of courses were completed. Median weight change for those completing a first course was -5.4 kg [IQR -7.8 - -3.1 kg] or -5.6% of initial weight. 57% lost ≥5% initial weight. Conclusions A third of all patients who were referred to WW through the WW NHS Referral Scheme and started a 12 session course achieved ≥5% weight loss, which is usually associated with clinical benefits. This is the largest audit of NHS referral to a commercial weight loss programme in the UK and results are comparable with other options for weight loss available through primary care.

  18. Concomitant changes in sleep duration and body weight and body composition during weight loss and 3-mo weight maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Sanne P M; Camps, Stefan G J A; Gonnissen, Hanne K J; Westerterp, Klaas R; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S

    2013-07-01

    An inverse relation between sleep duration and body mass index (BMI) has been shown. We assessed the relation between changes in sleep duration and changes in body weight and body composition during weight loss. A total of 98 healthy subjects (25 men), aged 20-50 y and with BMI (in kg/m(2)) from 28 to 35, followed a 2-mo very-low-energy diet that was followed by a 10-mo period of weight maintenance. Body weight, body composition (measured by using deuterium dilution and air-displacement plethysmography), eating behavior (measured by using a 3-factor eating questionnaire), physical activity (measured by using the validated Baecke's questionnaire), and sleep (estimated by using a questionnaire with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed before and immediately after weight loss and 3- and 10-mo follow-ups. The average weight loss was 10% after 2 mo of dieting and 9% and 6% after 3- and 10-mo follow-ups, respectively. Daytime sleepiness and time to fall asleep decreased during weight loss. Short (≤7 h) and average (>7 to weight loss. This change in sleep duration was concomitantly negatively correlated with the change in BMI during weight loss and after the 3-mo follow-up and with the change in fat mass after the 3-mo follow-up. Sleep duration benefits from weight loss or vice versa. Successful weight loss, loss of body fat, and 3-mo weight maintenance in short and average sleepers are underscored by an increase in sleep duration or vice versa. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01015508.

  19. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2017-03-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3° C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2° per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  20. Smell-taste dysfunctions in extreme weight/eating conditions: analysis of hormonal and psychological interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Agüera, Zaida; Fernández-García, Jose C; Garrido-Sanchez, Lourdes; Alcaide-Torres, Juan; Tinahones, Francisco J; Giner-Bartolomé, Cristina; Baños, Rosa M; Botella, Cristina; Cebolla, Ausias; de la Torre, Rafael; Fernández-Real, Jose M; Ortega, Francisco J; Frühbeck, Gema; Gómez-Ambrosi, Javier; Granero, Roser; Islam, Mohamed A; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana; Tárrega, Salomé; Menchón, José M; Fagundo, Ana B; Sancho, Carolina; Estivill, Xavier; Treasure, Janet; Casanueva, Felipe F

    2016-02-01

    (1) The objective of this study is to analyze differences in smell-taste capacity between females in extreme weight/eating conditions (EWC) and (2) to explore the interaction between smell/taste capacity, gastric hormones, eating behavior and body mass index (BMI). The sample comprised 239 females in EWC [64 Anorexia nervosa (AN) and 80 age-matched healthy-weight controls, and 59 obese and 36 age-matched healthy-weight controls]. Smell and taste assessments were performed through "Sniffin' Sticks" and "Taste Strips," respectively. The assessment measures included the eating disorders inventory-2, the symptom check list 90-revised, and The Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire, as well as peptides from the gastrointestinal tract [Ghrelin, peptide YY, cholecystokinin]. Smell capacity was differentially associated across EWC groups. Smell was clearly impaired in obese participants and increased in AN (hyposmia in Obesity was 54.3 and 6.4 % in AN), but taste capacity did not vary across EWC. Ghrelin levels were significantly decreased in obese subjects and were related to smell impairment. EWC individuals showed a distinct smell profile and circulating ghrelin levels compared to controls. Smell capacity and ghrelin may act as moderators of emotional eating and BMI.

  1. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2017-02-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  2. Changes in Energy Expenditure with Weight Gain and Weight Loss in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Manfred J; Enderle, Janna; Bosy-Westphal, Anja

    2016-12-01

    Metabolic adaptation to weight changes relates to body weight control, obesity and malnutrition. Adaptive thermogenesis (AT) refers to changes in resting and non-resting energy expenditure (REE and nREE) which are independent from changes in fat-free mass (FFM) and FFM composition. AT differs in response to changes in energy balance. With negative energy balance, AT is directed towards energy sparing. It relates to a reset of biological defence of body weight and mainly refers to REE. After weight loss, AT of nREE adds to weight maintenance. During overfeeding, energy dissipation is explained by AT of the nREE component only. As to body weight regulation during weight loss, AT relates to two different set points with a settling between them. During early weight loss, the first set is related to depleted glycogen stores associated with the fall in insulin secretion where AT adds to meet brain's energy needs. During maintenance of reduced weight, the second set is related to low leptin levels keeping energy expenditure low to prevent triglyceride stores getting too low which is a risk for some basic biological functions (e.g., reproduction). Innovative topics of AT in humans are on its definition and assessment, its dynamics related to weight loss and its constitutional and neuro-endocrine determinants.

  3. Gluconeogenesis is Not Regulated by Either Glucose or Insulin in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants Receiving Total Parenteral Nutrition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chacko, Shaji K.; Ordonez, Jorge; Sauer, Pieter J. J.; Sunehag, Agneta L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To determine potential factors regulating gluconeogenesis (GNG) in extremely low birth weight infants receiving total parenteral nutrition. Study design Seven infants (birth weight, 0.824 +/- 0.068 kg; gestational age, 25.4 +/- 0.5 weeks; postnatal age, 3.3 +/- 0.2 days) were studied for 1

  4. Projected changes in precipitation extremes linked to temperature over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S.; Dairaku, K.; Takayabu, I.; Suzuki-Parker, A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have argued that the extreme precipitation intensities are increasing in many regions across the globe due to atmospheric warming. This argument is based on the principle of Clausius-Clapeyron relationship which states that the atmosphere can hold more moisture in warmer air temperature (~7%/°C). In our study, we have investigated the precipitation extremes linked to temperature in current climate (1981-2000) and their projected changes in late 21st century (2081-2100, RCP4.5) over Japan from multi-model ensemble downscaling experiments by three RCMs (NHRCM, NRAMS, WRF) forced by JRA25 as well as three GCMs (CCSM4, MIROC5, MRI-GCM3). To do this, the precipitation intensities of wet days (defined as ≥ 0.05 mm/d) are stratified to different bins with 1°C temperature interval. We have also identified the occurrences of precipitation extremes in different spell durations and associated peak intensities exceeding various thresholds in two climate periods. We found that extreme precipitation intensities are increased by 5 mm/d in future climate for temperatures above 21°C (Fig. 1). Precipitation extremes of higher percentiles are projected to have larger increase rates in future climate scenarios (3-5%/°C in the current climate and 4-6%/°C in the future climate scenarios). The joint probability distribution of wet hours (≥1mm/h) with various peak intensities under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5) of the late 21st century suggests an increase of long-lived (>10hr) and short-lived (1-2hr) events. On the other hand, a relatively decrease of medium-lived events (3-10hr) are noticed in future climate scenario. The increase of extreme precipitation intensities in future climate is due to the increase in temperature under RCP4.5 (~2°C). Increase in temperature causes more evapotranspiration and subsequently increases the water vapor in the atmosphere.

  5. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  6. Extreme Rapid Weight Loss and Rapid Weight Gain Observed in UK Mixed Martial Arts Athletes Preparing for Competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Joseph John; Nicholas, Ceri

    2016-10-06

    There is a lack of research documenting the weight-making practices of mixed-martial-arts (MMA) competitors. The purpose of the investigation was to quantify the magnitude and identify the methods of rapid weight loss (RWL) and rapid weight gain (RWG) in MMA athletes preparing for competition. Seven athletes (mean ± SD, age 24.6 ± 3.5 yrs, body mass 69.9 ± 5.7 kg, competitive experience 3.1 ± 2.2 yrs) participated in a repeated-measures design. Measures of dietary intake, urinary hydration status, and body mass were recorded in the week preceding competition. Body mass decreased significantly (p<0.0005) from baseline by 5.6 ± 1.4 kg (8 ± 1.8%). During the RWG period (32 ± 1 hours) body mass increased significantly (p<0.001) by 7.4 ± 2.8 kg (11.7 ± 4.7%), exceeding RWL. Mean energy and carbohydrate intake were 3176 ± 482 kcal·day(-1) and 471 ± 124 g·day(-1), respectively. At the official weigh-in 57% of athletes were dehydrated (1033 ± 19 mOsmol·kg(-1)) and the remaining 43% were severely dehydrated (1267 ± 47 mOsmol·kg(-1)). Athletes reported using harmful dehydration-based RWL strategies, including sauna (43%) and training in plastic suits (43%). Results demonstrated RWG greater than RWL, this is a novel finding and may be attributable to the 32 hour duration from weigh-in till competition. The observed magnitude of RWL and strategies used are comparable to those which have previously resulted in fatalities. Rule changes which make RWL impractical should be implemented with immediate effect to ensure the health, safety and wellbeing of competitors.

  7. An extremely low body weight infant born to a mother with measles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, H; Hashimoto, K; Imamura, T; Sato, M; Kawasaki, Y; Momoi, N; Hosoya, M

    2010-02-01

    The incidence of measles epidemics has decreased recently owing to the development and widespread use of measles vaccine in the United States of America and Europe. However, repeated measles epidemics have been reported in Japan. Here, the authors report a case of an extremely low body weight infant (ELBWI) whose mother had a measles virus infection. Real-time PCR was performed on the infant's blood and urine samples and skin, nasal secretion, and anal swabs, as well as on the mother's breast milk, blood samples and throat swabs. The infant was found to be positive for measles virus by PCR, but not immunoglobulin M positive. An earlier report showed that there were no such cases in which the patient was found to be positive for measles virus by real-time PCR but was not infected by the measles virus.

  8. Disseminated candidemia refractory to caspofungin therapy in an infant with extremely low birth weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng-Ju Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Systemic fungal infections have high morbidity and mortality rates in neonates, especially neonates with an extremely low birth weight (ELBW. Here, we describe a 21-day-old ELBW female infant with an amphotericin B-unresponsive congenital Candida albicans infection that was treated with caspofungin. Blood sterilization was performed during the first episode, but a second episode of candidemia occurred after the discontinuation of caspofungin. Blood sterilization was again performed during the second round of caspofungin treatment, but fungal endocarditis and renal fungal balls still developed during the second episode. Caspofungin can be considered for invasive candidiasis in premature infants, especially in life-threatening situations. As for the focal lesions, more aggressive treatments other than just parenteral antibiotics should be considered. The literature regarding caspofungin therapy for neonatal candidiasis is also reviewed.

  9. Linking Early Adversity, Emotion Dysregulation, and Psychopathology: The Case of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren A. Drvaric

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to regulate emotion is a crucial process that humans utilize in order to adapt to the demands of environmental constraints. Individuals exposed to early adverse life events such as being born at an extremely low birth weight (ELBW, 501–1000 g are known to have problems regulating emotion which have been linked to the development of psychopathology in this population. Recent studies have used psychophysiological measures, such as electroencephalogram (EEG and cardiac vagal tone, to index emotion regulatory processes. The purpose of this paper was three-fold: (1 to investigate the relation between ELBW and emotion regulation issues (pathway 1, (2 to review studies investigating the relation between early emotion regulation and later internalizing problems (pathway 2; and (3 to provide a model in which two psychophysiological measures (i.e., frontal EEG asymmetry and cardiac vagal tone are suggested to understand the proposed conceptual pathways in the relation between ELBW and psychopathology.

  10. [Nutritional dilemmas in extremely low birth weight infants and their effects on childhood, adolescence and adulthood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camelo, José Simon; Martinez, Francisco Eulógio

    2005-03-01

    To review the recent medical literature on nutrition of extremely low birth weight infants, focusing on nutritional disorders and their effects on childhood, adolescence and adulthood. An extensive review of the related literature was performed using MEDLINE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the Best Evidence database. There is a growing body of evidence that early nutritional practices may affect short-term growth and development outcome. In addition, these practices may play a role in determining adult health and disease. There is still much to be learned about safe and efficacious nutrient administration in preterm infants; about techniques to assess the effect of different nutritional strategies; and about the long-term effects of these regimens on development outcome, growth and disease. Despite recent progress in neonatal nutrition, there is a lack of basic and clinical research to better define the nutritional requirements of preterm infants and the best way to meet these requirements, avoiding long-term undesirable consequences.

  11. Mid-Latitude Circulation and Extremes in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Gang [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2016-08-04

    Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very wide range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.

  12. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  13. Growth Curve Analysis and Change-Points Detection in Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Rui

    2016-05-15

    The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed

  14. Modification of Hidden Layer Weight in Extreme Learning Machine Using Gain Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anggraeny Fetty Tri

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme Learning Machine (ELM is a method of learning feed forward neural network quickly and has a fairly good accuracy. This method is devoted to a feed forward neural network with one hidden layer where the parameters (i.e. weight and bias are adjusted one time randomly at the beginning of the learning process. In neural network, the input layer is connected to all characteristics/features, and the output layer is connected to all classes of species. This research used three datasets from UCI database, which were Iris, Breast Wisconsin, and Dermatology, with each dataset having several features. Each characteristic/feature of the data has a role in the process of classification levels, starting from the most influencing role to non-influencing at all. Gain ratio was used to extract each feature role on each datasets. Gain ratio is a method to extract feature role in order to develop a decision tree structure. In this study, ELM structure has been modified, where the random weights of the hidden layer were adjusted to the level of each feature role in determining the species class, so as to improve the level of training and testing accuracy. The proposed method has higher classification accuracy rate than basic ELM on all three datasets, which were 99%, 96%, and 82%, respectively.

  15. Adult social outcomes of extremely low birth weight survivors of childhood sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, J I; Day, K L; Schmidt, L A; Saigal, S; Van Lieshout, R J

    2016-12-01

    Preterm birth and exposure to childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are early physiological and psychological adversities that have been linked to reduced social functioning across the lifespan. However, the joint effects of being born preterm and being exposed to CSA on adult social outcomes remains unclear. We sought to determine the impact of exposure to both preterm birth and CSA on adult social functioning in a group of 179 extremely low birth weight (ELBW; 2500 g) participants in the fourth decade of life. Social outcome data from a prospective, longitudinal, population-based Canadian birth cohort initiated between the years of 1977 and 1982 were examined. At age 29-36 years, ELBW survivors who experienced CSA reported poorer relationships with their partner, worse family functioning, greater loneliness, lower self-esteem and had higher rates of avoidant personality problems than those who had not experienced CSA. Birth weight status was also found to moderate associations between CSA and self-esteem (P=0.032), loneliness (P=0.021) and family functioning (P=0.060), such that the adverse effects of CSA were amplified in ELBW survivors. Exposure to CSA appears to augment the adult social risks associated with perinatal adversity. Individuals born preterm and exposed to CSA appear to be a group at particularly high risk for adverse social outcomes in adulthood.

  16. Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment of patent ductus arteriosus in extremely low birth weight infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordero, L; Nankervis, C A; Delooze, D; Giannone, P J

    2007-03-01

    Indomethacin prophylaxis or expectant treatment are common strategies for the prevention or management of symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus (sPDA). To compare the clinical responses of extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants to indomethacin prophylaxis with that of other infants who were managed expectantly by being treated with indomethacin or surgically only after an sPDA was detected. Retrospective cohort investigation of 167 ELBW infants who received indomethacin prophylaxis (study) and 167 ELBW infants (control) treated expectantly who were matched by year of birth (1999 to 2006), birth weight, gestational age (GA) and gender. Mothers of the two groups of infants were comparable demographically and on the history of preterm labor, pre-eclampsia, antepartum steroids and cesarean delivery. Study and control infants were similar in birth weight, GA, low 5 min Apgar scores, surfactant administration, the need for arterial blood pressure control, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and neonatal mortality. Necrotizing enterocolitis, spontaneous intestinal perforations, intraventricular hemorrhage grade III to IV, periventricular leukomalacia and stage 3 to 5 retinopathy of prematurity occurred also with similar frequency in both groups of infants. In the indomethacin prophylaxis group, 29% of the infants developed sPDA, and of them 38% responded to indomethacin treatment. In the expectantly treated group, 37% developed sPDA, and of them 59% responded to indomethacin treatment. Overall, surgical ligation rate for sPDA was similar between both groups of patients. In our experience, indomethacin prophylaxis does not show any advantages over expectant early treatment on the management of sPDA in ELBW infants. Although no deleterious effects were observed, prophylaxis exposed a significant number of infants who may have never developed sPDA, to potential indomethacin-related complications.

  17. Pattern of learning disabilities in children with extremely low birth weight and broadly average intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunau, Ruth Eckstein; Whitfield, Michael F; Davis, Cynthia

    2002-06-01

    To examine the prevalence and pattern of specific areas of learning disability (LD) in neurologically normal children with extremely low birth weight (ELBW) (intelligence compared with full-term children with normal birth weight of comparable sociodemographic background, and to explore concurrent cognitive correlates of the specific LDs. Longitudinal follow-up; geographically defined region. Regional follow-up program. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised, Gray Oral Reading Test-Revised, Test of Written Language-Revised, Wide Range Achievement Test-Revised, Developmental Test of Visual-Motor Integration. One hundred fourteen (87%) of 131 children with ELBW born between 1982 and 1987 were seen at ages 8 to 9 years. Of the 114 children, 74, who were neurologically normal, with a Verbal or Performance IQ greater than or equal to 85, formed the study group. A group of 30 full-term children with normal birth weight and similar sociodemographic status comprised a comparison group. The children were predominantly white and middle class. Significantly more children with ELBW (65%) met criteria for LD in 1 or more areas compared with 13% of the comparison children. In the ELBW group, the most frequently affected area was written output, then arithmetic, then reading. Visuospatial and visual-motor abilities in combination with verbal functioning primarily explained performance in arithmetic and reading among children with ELBW, unlike the control children, whose scores were associated only with verbal functioning. Complex LDs in multiple academic domains are common sequelae among broadly middle class, predominantly white, neurologically normal children with ELBW compared with control peers. The developmental etiology of LDs in children with ELBW and control peers differs.

  18. Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Louise Bagger; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Prescott, Eva

    2012-01-01

    the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants......The aim of the study was to establish the effects of a range of psychosocial factors on weight changes and risk of obesity. The study population consisted of the 4,753 participants in the third (1991-1994) and fourth wave (2001-2003) of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. At baseline...... on average gained 2 kg of weight and 8% became obese during follow-up. The experience of major life events in childhood, work life and adult life was associated with weight gain and obesity in women, but not in men. Vital exhaustion was associated with weight gain in a dose-response manner in men (P = 0...

  19. Inter-Pregnancy Weight Change and the Risk of Recurrent Pregnancy Complications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacqueline M Wallace

    Full Text Available Women with specific adverse pregnancy outcomes in their first pregnancy may be receptive to inter-pregnancy weight management guidance aimed at preventing these complications reoccurring in subsequent pregnancies. Thus the association between inter-pregnancy weight change and the risk of recurrent pregnancy complications at the second pregnancy was investigated in a retrospective cohort study of 24,520 women with their first-ever and second consecutive deliveries in Aberdeen using logistic regression. Compared with women who were weight stable, weight loss (>2BMI units between pregnancies was associated with an increased risk of recurrent small for gestational age (SGA birth and elective Cesarean-section, and was protective against recurrent pre-eclampsia, placental oversize and large for gestational age (LGA birth. Conversely weight gain (>2BMI units between pregnancies increased the risk of recurrent gestational hypertension, placental oversize and LGA birth and was protective against recurrent low placental weight and SGA birth. The relationships between weight gain, and placental and birth weight extremes were evident only in women with a healthy weight at first pregnancy (BMI<25units, while that between weight gain and the increased risk of recurrent gestational hypertension was largely independent of first pregnancy BMI. No relationship was detected between inter-pregnancy weight change and the risk of recurrent spontaneous preterm delivery, labour induction, instrumental delivery, emergency Cesarean-section or postpartum hemorrhage. Therefor inter-pregnancy weight change impacts the risk of recurrent hypertensive disorders, SGA and LGA birth and women with a prior history of these specific conditions may benefit from targeted nutritional advice to either lose or gain weight after their first pregnancy.

  20. Percutaneous evacuation of diffuse pulmonary interstitial emphysema by lung puncture in a baby with extremely low birth weight: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Watanabe Masahiro

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Pulmonary interstitial emphysema is a serious complication of mechanical ventilation and can become life-threatening if progression occurs. Therapeutic lung puncture is a treatment option for severe pulmonary interstitial emphysema but has a limited use in babies with extremely low birth weight. We present a case of pulmonary interstitial emphysema in a Japanese baby (1-day-old boy with extremely low birth weight. The emphysema was successfully decompressed by therapeutic lung puncture performed with a trocar catheter. Case presentation The baby was born with a weight of 420g, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the lowest reported birth weight among babies with pulmonary interstitial emphysema. A chest X-ray on postnatal day 2 revealed pulmonary interstitial emphysema, which gradually progressed to diffuse pseudocystic changes. His condition became life-threatening despite the use of high-frequency oscillatory ventilation and lateral decubitus positioning. We evacuated the pulmonary interstitial emphysema by lung puncture with a trocar catheter to avoid respiratory and cardiovascular collapse. This resulted in adequate evacuation of the emphysema and a dramatic improvement in his clinical condition. Conclusions Therapeutic lung puncture performed with a trocar catheter is beneficial in babies with extremely low birth weight and diffuse pulmonary interstitial emphysema. This treatment option may be broadly applicable, especially in an emergency situation.

  1. Lower-limb amputation and body weight changes in men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyson J. Littman, PhD

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about the relationship between lower-limb amputation (LLA and subsequent changes in body weight. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using clinical and administrative databases to identify and follow weight changes in 759 males with amputation (partial foot amputation [PFA], n = 396; transtibial amputation [TTA], n = 267; and transfemoral amputation [TFA], n = 96 and 3,790 men without amputation frequency-matched (5:1 on age, body mass index, diabetes, and calendar year from eight Department of Veterans Affairs medical care facilities in the Pacific Northwest. We estimated and compared longitudinal percent weight change from baseline up to 39 mo of follow-up in men with and without amputation. Weight gain in the 2 yr after amputation was significantly more in men with an amputation than without, and in men with a TTA or TFA (8%–9% increase than in men with a PFA (3%–6% increase. Generally, percent weight gain peaked at 2 yr and was followed by some weight loss in the third year. These findings indicate that LLA is often followed by clinically important weight gain. Future studies are needed to better understand the reasons for weight gain and to identify intervention strategies to prevent excess weight gain and the deleterious consequences that may ensue.

  2. Lower-limb amputation and body weight changes in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littman, Alyson J; Thompson, Mary Lou; Arterburn, David E; Bouldin, Erin; Haselkorn, Jodie K; Sangeorzan, Bruce J; Boyko, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the relationship between lower-limb amputation (LLA) and subsequent changes in body weight. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using clinical and administrative databases to identify and follow weight changes in 759 males with amputation (partial foot amputation [PFA], n = 396; transtibial amputation [TTA], n = 267; and transfemoral amputation [TFA], n = 96) and 3,790 nondisabled persons frequency-matched (5:1) on age, body mass index, diabetes, and calendar year from eight Department of Veterans Affairs medical care facilities in the Pacific Northwest. We estimated and compared longitudinal percent weight change from baseline during up to 39 mo of follow-up in participants with and without amputation. Weight gain in the 2 yr after amputation was significantly more in men with an amputation than without, and in men with a TTA or TFA (8%-9% increase) than in men with a PFA (3%-6% increase). Generally, percent weight gain peaked at 2 yr and was followed by some weight loss in the third year. These findings indicate that LLA is often followed by clinically important weight gain. Future studies are needed to better understand the reasons for weight gain and to identify intervention strategies to prevent excess weight gain and the deleterious consequences that may ensue.

  3. Reference chart for relative weight change to detect hypernatraemic dehydration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dommelen, P. van; Wouwe, J.P. van; Breuning-Boers, J.M.; Buuren, S. van; Verkerk, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: The validity of the rule of thumb that infants may have a weight loss of 10% in the first days after birth is unknown. We assessed the validity of this and other rules to detect breast-fed infants with hypernatraemic dehydration. Design: A reference chart for relative weight change was co

  4. Body Weight changes and Economic Implications of Feeding Uda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Body Weight changes and Economic Implications of Feeding Uda Rams with ... Tullun Gwanki Grazing Reserve was purposively selected because of the ... result in terms of cost of feed/kg live weight gain (962.83N/kg) as compared to rams on ...

  5. Body weight changes in elderly psychogeriatric nursing home residents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoops, K.T.B.; Slump, E.; Groot, de C.P.G.M.; Wouters-Wesseling, W.; Brouwer, M.L.; Staveren, van W.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective. This study was undertaken to identify predictors of body weight change in nursing home patients with possible to severe dementia. Methods. For 24 weeks, 108 elderly residents of a nursing home were followed. Body weight was measured every 2 weeks. Other anthropometric characteristics, die

  6. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  7. Learning Disabilities in Extremely Low Birth Weight Children and Neurodevelopmental Profiles at Preschool Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squarza, Chiara; Picciolini, Odoardo; Gardon, Laura; Giannì, Maria L; Murru, Alessandra; Gangi, Silvana; Cortinovis, Ivan; Milani, Silvano; Mosca, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    At school age extremely low birth weight (ELBW) and extremely low gestational age (ELGAN) children are more likely to show Learning Disabilities (LDs) and difficulties in emotional regulation. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of LDs at school age and to detect neurodevelopmental indicators of risk for LDs at preschool ages in a cohort of ELBW/ELGAN children with broadly average intelligence. All consecutively newborns 2001-2006 admitted to the same Institution entered the study. Inclusion criteria were BW disabilities, genetic abnormalities, and/or a Developmental Quotient below normal limits (learning disabilities at school age was investigated through a parent-report questionnaire at children's age range 9-10 years. Neurodevelopmental profiles were assessed through the Griffiths Mental Development Scales at 1 and 2 years of corrected age and at 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of chronological age and were analyzed comparing two groups of children: those with LDs and those without. At school age 24 on 102 (23.5%) of our ELBW/ELGAN children met criteria for LDs in one or more areas, with 70.8% comorbidity with emotional/attention difficulties. Children with LDs scored significantly lower in the Griffiths Locomotor and Language subscales at 2 years of corrected age and in the Personal-social, Performance and Practical Reasoning subscales at 5 years of chronological age. Our findings suggest that, among the early developmental indicators of adverse school outcome, there is a poor motor experimentation, language delay, and personal-social immaturity. Cognitive rigidity and poor ability to manage practical situations also affect academic attainment. Timely detection of these early indicators of risk is crucial to assist the transition to school.

  8. Gut Bacteria Changes After Some Weight-Loss Surgeries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_165987.html Gut Bacteria Changes After Some Weight-Loss Surgeries Better diversity ... Specifically, the procedure leads to increased diversity of bacteria in the gut, and a microbial population distinct ...

  9. Weight changes in children in foster care for 1 year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderman, Janet U; Smith, Caitlin; Arnold-Clark, Janet S; Fuentes, Jorge; Duan, Lei

    2013-10-01

    The aims of this study of predominately racial/ethnic minority children in foster care (N=360, birth to 19 years old) in Los Angeles, CA were to examine the (1) prevalence of obesity (≥ 95 percentile) and overweight/obese (≥ 85 percentile) upon entrance to foster care (T1) and after 1 year in foster care (T2); (2) comparison of high weight categories to national statistics; (3) relationship of changes in weight status to age, reason for entry into foster care, and placement. Chi-square test and McNemar test comparing paired proportions were used to determine whether there were significant changes in the proportion of high weight categories between T1 and T2. Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test were used to evaluate the association between age, placement, and reason for foster care with the change in weight category. Changes in weight were categorized as (1) decreased in weight, (2) remained at overweight or obese, (3) increased in weight, or (4) remained normal. The proportion of obese and obese/overweight children between ages 2 and 5 were significantly lower at T2 than T1. There were no significant changes in the prevalence of obesity for the total population at T2. Children age 6 or older had a higher prevalence of obesity and overweight/obesity compared to national statistics. Of children at all ages, 64.7% of children of all ages entered foster care with a normal weight and stayed in the normal range during their first year in foster care, 12.2% decreased their weight, 15.4% remained overweight or obese, and 7.7% increased their weight. Age and parental substance use was related to change in weight category from T1 to T2. Children did not become more overweight or obese in foster care; however 28% of the children were obese or overweight upon entry into foster care. Children who are 6 years or older and obese upon entering foster care should be targeted for weight reduction. The pediatric community and child welfare system need to work together by

  10. Weight change following deep brain stimulation for movement disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strowd, Roy E; Cartwright, Michael S; Passmore, Leah V; Ellis, Thomas L; Tatter, Stephen B; Siddiqui, Mustafa S

    2010-08-01

    Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET) tend to lose weight progressively over years. Weight gain following deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) for treatment of PD has been documented in several studies that were limited by small sample size and exclusive focus on PD patients with STN stimulation. The current study was undertaken to examine weight change in a large sample of movement disorder patients following DBS. A retrospective review was undertaken of 182 patient charts following DBS of the STN, ventralis intermedius nucleus of the thalamus (VIM), and globus pallidus internus (GPi). Weight was collected preoperatively and postoperatively up to 24 months following surgery. Data were adjusted for baseline weight and multivariate linear regression was performed with repeated measures to assess weight change. Statistically significant mean weight gain of 1.8 kg (2.8% increase from baseline, p = 0.0113) was observed at a rate of approximately 1 kg per year up to 24 months following surgery. This gain was not predicted by age, gender, diagnosis, or stimulation target in a multivariate model. Significant mean weight gain of 2.3 kg (p = 0.0124) or 4.2% was observed in our PD patients. Most patients with PD and ET gain weight following DBS, and this gain is not predicted by age, gender, diagnosis, or stimulation target.

  11. Weight Change and Risk of Hyperglycemia in Elderly Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Dragsbæk; Neergaard, Jesper; Christiansen, Claus

    2017-01-01

    of hyperglycaemia to a level comparable to weight-stable normalweight women. Overweight and obese women with stable weight presented a two-fold increased risk of hyperglycaemia compared to normalweight weight-stable women. Conclusions Losing weight in late life had a positive effect on the risk of hyperglycaemia......Background Hyperglycaemia increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease and stroke, and is influenced by weight. However, the impact of preceding weight change on blood glycemia levels in late-life is less well understood. Aim We studied the interplay between weight change and risk...... of diabetes or impaired fasting glucose. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk of hyperglycaemia (FPG ≥ 5.6 mmol/L or HbA1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol) in normalweight (BMI ≤ 25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI = 25–29.9 kg/m2) and obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) women who either lost weight, were weight-stable or had...

  12. Mortality in Extremely Low-Birth-Weight Neonates in México City (1985–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Iglesias-Leboreiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze 25 years of mortality of extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW neonates (≤1000 g in a private hospital in Mexico City and to establish the current viability limit for ELBW neonates. Methods. We designed a prospective observational study of all ELBW neonates born between 1985 and 2009. Neonatal mortality, early neonatal mortality, and the 120-day mortality rate were analyzed in 5-year intervals by two categories of birth weight (501–750 g and 751–1000 g. Results. Among the 50,823 total births, 158 were ELBW (3.1 per 103. Neonatal mortality (death ≤28 days decreased for the 501–750 g neonates from 88.9% (1985–1989 to 55.6% (2005–1999 (P=.008 and for 751–1000 g neonates also decreased from 50% to 5.3% (P=.002. The 120-day mortality for neonates over 500 g diminished: 501–750 g neonates, 88.9% to 61.1% (P=.02 and for 751–1000 g neonates, 62.5% to 15.8% (P=.002. The highest viability limit was established in neonates who weighed ≥650 g and were ≥26 weeks in gestational age. Conclusions. The survival of ELBW neonates has improved in Mexico particularly in private hospitals, and it was more evident over the years 2004–2009. These data suggest that it is possible to increase the ELBW neonates survive in developing counties.

  13. Executive functions profile in extreme eating/weight conditions: from anorexia nervosa to obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana B Fagundo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Extreme weight conditions (EWC groups along a continuum may share some biological risk factors and intermediate neurocognitive phenotypes. A core cognitive trait in EWC appears to be executive dysfunction, with a focus on decision making, response inhibition and cognitive flexibility. Differences between individuals in these areas are likely to contribute to the differences in vulnerability to EWC. The aim of the study was to investigate whether there is a common pattern of executive dysfunction in EWC while comparing anorexia nervosa patients (AN, obese subjects (OB and healthy eating/weight controls (HC. METHODS: Thirty five AN patients, fifty two OB and one hundred thirty seven HC were compared using the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST; Stroop Color and Word Test (SCWT; and Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. All participants were female, aged between 18 and 60 years. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in IGT score (F(1.79; p<.001, with AN and OB groups showing the poorest performance compared to HC. On the WCST, AN and OB made significantly more errors than controls (F(25.73; p<.001, and had significantly fewer correct responses (F(2.71; p<.001. Post hoc analysis revealed that the two clinical groups were not significantly different from each other. Finally, OB showed a significant reduced performance in the inhibition response measured with the Stroop test (F(5.11; p<.001 compared with both AN and HC. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that EWC subjects (namely AN and OB have similar dysfunctional executive profile that may play a role in the development and maintenance of such disorders.

  14. Parental motivation to change body weight in young overweight children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rachael W; Williams, Sheila M; Dawson, Anna M; Haszard, Jillian J; Brown, Deirdre A

    2015-07-01

    To determine what factors are associated with parental motivation to change body weight in overweight children. Cross-sectional study. Dunedin, New Zealand. Two hundred and seventy-one children aged 4-8 years, recruited in primary and secondary care, were identified as overweight (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) after screening. Parents completed questionnaires on demographics; motivation to improve diet, physical activity and weight; perception and concern about weight; parenting; and social desirability, prior to being informed that their child was overweight. Additional measures of physical activity (accelerometry), dietary intake and child behaviour (questionnaire) were obtained after feedback. Although all children were overweight, only 42% of parents perceived their child to be so, with 36% indicating any concern. Very few parents (n 25, 8%) were actively trying to change the child's weight. Greater motivation to change weight was observed for girls compared with boys (P = 0.001), despite no sex difference in BMI Z-score (P = 0.374). Motivation was not associated with most demographic variables, social desirability, dietary intake, parenting or child behaviour. Increased motivation to change the child's weight was observed for heavier children (P motivation to change overweight in young children highlight the urgent need to determine how best to improve motivation to initiate change.

  15. Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of

  16. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  17. Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. T. Nastos

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

  18. Early Vocalization of Preterm Infants with Extremely Low Birth Weight (ELBW), Part I: From Birth to Expansion Stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torola, Helena; Lehtihalmes, Matti; Heikkinen, Hanna; Olsen, Paivi; Yliherva, Anneli

    2012-01-01

    The vocalization of preterm infants with extremely low birth weight (ELBW) up to the expansion stage was systematically described and compared with those of healthy full-term infants. The sample consisted of 18 preterm ELBW infants and the control group of 11 full-term infants. The follow-up was performed intensively using video-recordings. The…

  19. Self-Regulation in Children Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight at 2 Years Old: A Comparison Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Lisa N.; Cuskelly, Monica; Gray, Peter H.; O'Callaghan, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    Survival rates for children born with extremely low birth weight (ELBW) are increasing; however, many of these children experience later problems with learning. This study adopted an integrated approach to these problems, involving the self-regulatory tasks of inhibition and delay of gratification and relevant individual factors including…

  20. Frontal Electroencephalogram Asymmetry, Salivary Cortisol, and Internalizing Behavior Problems in Young Adults Who Were Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Louis A.; Miskovic, Vladimir; Boyle, Michael; Saigal, Saroj

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined internalizing behavior problems at middle childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood and brain-based measures of stress vulnerability in 154 right-handed, nonimpaired young adults (M age = 23 years): 71 (30 males, 41 females) born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; less than 1,000 g) and 83 (35 males, 48 females) controls…

  1. Early corticosteroid treatment does not affect severity of unconjugated hyperbilirubinemia in extreme low birth weight preterm infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulzebos, Christian V.; Bos, Arend F.; Anttila, Eija; Hallman, Mikko; Verkade, Henkjan J.

    2011-01-01

    Aim: To determine the relationship between early postnatal dexamethasone (DXM) treatment and the severity of hyperbilirubinemia in extreme low birth weight (ELBW) preterm infants. Methods: In 54 ELBW preterm infants, total serum bilirubin concentrations (TSB) and phototherapy (PT) data during the fi

  2. The 'Effects of Transfusion Thresholds on Neurocognitive Outcome of Extremely Low Birth-Weight Infants (ETTNO)' Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinholdt, Jes; Veiergang, Gitte

    2012-01-01

    Background: Infants with extremely low birth weight uniformly develop anemia of prematurity and frequently require red blood cell transfusions (RBCTs). Although RBCT is widely practiced, the indications remain controversial in the absence of conclusive data on the long-term effects of RBCT...

  3. Weight change and lower body disability in older Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Snih, Soham; Raji, Mukaila A; Markides, Kyriakos S; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J; Goodwin, James S

    2005-10-01

    To examine the association between 2-year weight change and onset of lower body disability over time in older Mexican Americans. Data were from the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly (1993-2001). Weight change was examined by comparing baseline weight to weight at 2-year follow-up. Incidence of lower body disability was studied from the end of this period through an additional 5 years. Five southwestern states: Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and California. One thousand seven hundred thirty-seven noninstitutionalized Mexican-American men and women aged 65 and older who reported no limitation in activities of daily living (ADLs) and were able to perform the walk test at 2-year follow-up. In-home interviews assessed sociodemographic factors, self-reported physician diagnoses of medical conditions (arthritis, diabetes mellitus, heart attack, stroke, hip fracture, and cancer), self-reported ADLs, depressive symptoms, and number of hospitalizations. Cognitive function, handgrip muscle strength, and body mass index (BMI) were obtained. The outcomes were any limitation of lower body ADL (walking across a small room, bathing, transferring from a bed to a chair, and using the toilet) and limitation on the walk test over subsequent 5-year follow-up period. General Estimation Equation (GEE) was used to estimate lower body disability over time. Weight change of 5% or more occurred in 42.3% of the participants; 21.7% lost weight, 20.6% gained weight, and 57.7% had stable weight. Using GEE analysis, with stable weight as the reference, weight loss of 5% or more was associated with greater risk of any lower body ADL limitation (odds ratio (OR)=1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.06-1.95) and walking limitation (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.03-1.76) after controlling for sociodemographic variables and BMI at baseline. Weight gain of 5% or more was associated with greater risk of any lower body ADL limitation (OR=1.39, 95% CI=1.02-1.89), after

  4. DNA Methylation Changes in the IGF1R Gene in Birth Weight Discordant Adult Monozygotic Twins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsai, Pei-Chien; Van Dongen, Jenny; Tan, Qihua;

    2015-01-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) can have an impact on health outcomes in later life, especially in relation to pre-disposition to metabolic disease. Several studies suggest that LBW resulting from restricted intrauterine growth leaves a footprint on DNA methylation in utero, and this influence likely...... persists into adulthood. To investigate this further, we performed epigenome-wide association analyses of blood DNA methylation using Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip profiles in 71 adult monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs who were extremely discordant for birth weight. A signal mapping to the IGF1R gene (cg...... was particularly pronounced in older twins (random-effects meta-analysis p = .008, 98 older birth-weight discordant MZ twin pairs). The results suggest that severe intra-uterine growth differences (birth weight discordance >20%) are associated with methylation changes in the IGF1R gene in adulthood, independent...

  5. Weight loss and related behavior changes among lesbians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogel, Sarah; Young, Laura; Dietrich, Mary; Blakemore, Dana

    2012-01-01

    Overweight and obesity are known risk factors for several modifiable, if not preventable diseases. Growing evidence suggests that lesbians may have higher rates of obesity than other women. This study was designed to describe weight loss and behavior changes related to food choices and exercise habits among lesbians who participated in a predominantly lesbian, mainstream, commercial weight loss program. Behavioral changes were recorded in exercise, quality of food choices, and number of times dining out. Although there were several limitations based on sample size and heterogeneity, the impact of a lesbian-supportive environment for behavior change was upheld.

  6. Heterosis and direct effects for Charolais-sired calf weight and growth, cow weight and weight change, and ratios of cow and calf weights and weight changes across warm season lactation in Romosinuano, Angus, and F cows in Arkansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, D G; Burke, J M; Chase, C C; Coleman, S W

    2016-01-01

    The use of Brahman in cow-calf production offers some adaptation to the harsh characteristics of endophyte-infected tall fescue. Criollo breeds, such as the Romosinuano, may have similar adaptation. The objectives were to estimate genetic effects in Romosinuano, Angus, and crossbred cows for their weights, weights of their calves, and ratios (calf weight:cow weight and cow weight change:calf weight gain) across lactation and to assess the influence of forage on traits and estimates. Cows ( = 91) were bred to Charolais bulls after their second parity. Calves ( = 214) were born from 2006 to 2009. Cows and calves were weighed in early (April and June), mid- (July), and late lactation (August and October). Animal was a random effect in analyses of calf data; sire was random in analyses of cow records and ratios. Fixed effects investigated included calf age, calf sex, cow age-year combinations, sire breed of cow, dam breed of cow, and interactions. Subsequent analyses evaluated the effect of forage grazed: endophyte-free or endophyte-infected tall fescue. Estimates of maternal heterosis for calf weight ranged from 9.3 ± 4.3 to 15.4 ± 5.7 kg from mid-lactation through weaning ( Angus cows and lower ( Angus cows had the lowest ( < 0.05) ratios (negative) of cow weight change:calf weight gain, indicating an energy-deficit condition. Cows grazing endophyte-free tall fescue had more negative ( < 0.05) values for this trait but not in early lactation ( < 0.05). Estimates of heterosis ranged from 12.8 ± 9.5 to 28.6 ± 9.4 kg for cow weight, 7.9 ± 3.0 to 15.8 ± 5.0 kg for cow weight change, and 0.07 ± 0.03 to 0.27 ± 0.1 for cow weight change:calf weight gain. Direct Romosinuano effects ranged from 14.8 ± 4.2 to 49.8 ± 7.7 kg for cow weight change and 0.2 ± 0.04 to 0.51 ± 0.14 for cow weight change:calf weight gain. The adaptive ability of Romosinuano in temperate fescue regions may be favorable with respect to relative cow and calf weight but may be a consequence of

  7. Stages of change for weight management in postpartum women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krummel, Debra A; Semmens, Elizabeth; Boury, Janis; Gordon, Paul M; Larkin, Kevin T

    2004-07-01

    This study examined factors related to stages of change for weight-management behaviors in postpartum women. Cross-sectional data, collected at baseline, are reported from the Mothers' Overweight Management Study (MOMS), a randomized, controlled trial conducted in postpartum women who participated in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).Subjects/Setting Subjects were a sample of WIC recipients (N=151) older than 18 years of age with a child younger than 2 years. Statistical analysis The dependent variables were the stages of change for weight-management behaviors (losing weight, avoiding high-fat foods, eating a high-fiber diet, and exercising). Demographic, health, and psychosocial variables were examined as independent variables. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare means, and chi(2) was used for proportions. Whereas 55% of women were in the action stage for weight loss, fewer women were in the action stage for the following weight management behaviors: avoiding high-fat foods (24%), increasing fiber (19%), and exercising three times per week (29%). Identifying pros for weight management was related to stages for losing weight, high-fat food avoidance, and exercise (F=13.4, Pfiber intake (chi(2)=16.4, P=.003; chi(2)=11.7, P=.02). Emphasizing the pros for weight-management behaviors, decreasing the cons for exercising, increasing confidence to select low-fat restaurant choices, and improving skills for using food labels are four strategies that nutrition professionals can use to help women become more ready to change behaviors for weight management.

  8. Dimensional stability and weight changes of tissue conditioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, H; Kawamura, M; Hamada, T; Saleh, S; Kresnoadi, U; Toki, K

    2001-10-01

    The dimensional stability of tissue conditioners characterizes the ability of the materials to yield accurate functional impressions of oral mucosa. This study evaluated the linear dimensional changes with time of six tissue conditioners (COE Comfort, FITT, GC Soft-Liner, Hydro-Cast, SR-Ivoseal and Visco-Gel) using a travelling microscope, and relationship between these changes and weight changes. The absorption and solubility of these materials were also determined. The percentage changes in dimension and weight in water storage were measured at 2 (baseline), 8 and 24 h, and 2, 4, 7, 14 and 21 days after specimen preparation. All materials except SR-Ivoseal exhibited shrinkage and weight loss during water storage, whilst SR-Ivoseal exhibited expansion and an increase in weight. The percentage solubility for all materials except SR-Ivoseal was higher than the percentage absorption. A positive linear relationship was found between the percentage changes in linear dimension and those in weight (r=0.797 - 0.986, P forming functional impressions would be 24 h after insertion in the mouth. In addition, it is important to select tissue conditioners suitable for functional impressions because of the wide ranges of dimensional stability among the materials.

  9. Desvenlafaxine and Weight Change in Major Depressive Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leurent, Claire; Graepel, Jay; Ninan, Philip T.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To characterize weight change during short- and longer-term treatment with desvenlafaxine (administered as desvenlafaxine succinate) for major depressive disorder (MDD). Method: Data from 9 short-term, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies and 1 longer-term relapse-prevention trial conducted between September 2002 and January 2007 were analyzed. Adult outpatients with a primary diagnosis of MDD using criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition received fixed- or flexible-dose desvenlafaxine or placebo for 8 weeks in the short-term studies. In the longer-term study, responders to 12 weeks of open-label desvenlafaxine treatment were randomly assigned to double-blind treatment with desvenlafaxine or placebo for 6 months. Mean weight changes and incidence of potentially clinically important changes were evaluated. Results: In the short-term studies (desvenlafaxine: n = 1,834; placebo: n = 1,116), mean decreases in weight associated with desvenlafaxine were small but statistically significant compared with baseline (P desvenlafaxine vs + 0.05 kg placebo; P desvenlafaxine (n = 190) and placebo (n = 185) throughout the relapse-prevention phase, with no statistical difference between desvenlafaxine- and placebo-treated patients at the final evaluation. Less than 1% of desvenlafaxine-treated patients experienced a clinically meaningful weight change. Conclusions: Desvenlafaxine was not associated with clinically significant weight change during short- or longer-term treatment. PMID:20582292

  10. Soda consumption during ad libitum food intake predicts weight change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundrick, Sarah C; Thearle, Marie S; Venti, Colleen A; Krakoff, Jonathan; Votruba, Susanne B

    2014-03-01

    Soda consumption may contribute to weight gain over time. Objective data were used to determine whether soda consumption predicts weight gain or changes in glucose regulation over time. Subjects without diabetes (128 men, 75 women; mean age 34.3±8.9 years; mean body mass index 32.5±7.4; mean percentage body fat 31.6%±8.6%) self-selected their food from an ad libitum vending machine system for 3 days. Mean daily energy intake was calculated from food weight. Energy consumed from soda was recorded as were food choices that were low in fat (30%). Food choices were expressed as percentage of daily energy intake. A subset of 85 subjects had measurement of follow-up weights and oral glucose tolerance (57 men, 28 women; mean follow-up time=2.5±2.1 years, range 6 months to 9.9 years). Energy consumed from soda was negatively related to age (r=-0.27, P=0.0001) and choosing low-fat foods (r=-0.35, Psoda correlated with change in weight (r=0.21, P=0.04). This relationship was unchanged after adjusting for follow-up time and initial weight. Soda consumption is a marker for excess energy consumption and is associated with weight gain.

  11. Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthoff, David [The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin (Ireland)]|[International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg (Germany)]|[Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germany); Hepburn, Cameron [Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, and James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, and New College, Oxford (United Kingdom); Tol, Richard S.J. [The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin (Ireland)]|[Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germany)]|[Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)]|[Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2009-01-15

    Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. (author)

  12. Abnormalities in orbitofrontal cortex gyrification and mental health outcomes in adolescents born extremely preterm and/or at an extremely low birth weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganella, Eleni P; Burnett, Alice; Cheong, Jeanie; Thompson, Deanne; Roberts, Gehan; Wood, Stephen; Lee, Katherine; Duff, Julianne; Anderson, Peter J; Pantelis, Christos; Doyle, Lex W; Bartholomeusz, Cali

    2015-03-01

    Extremely preterm (EP, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are determined during the third trimester, however little is known about OFC patterning in EP/ELBW cohorts, for whom this gestational period is disturbed. This study investigated whether the distribution of OFC pattern types and frequency of intermediate and/or posterior orbital sulci (IOS/POS) differed between EP/ELBW and control adolescents. This study also investigated whether OFC pattern type was associated with mental illness or executive function outcome in adolescence. Magnetic resonance images of 194 EP/ELBW and 147 full term (>37 completed weeks) and/or normal birth weight (> 2500 g) adolescents were acquired, from which the OFC pattern of each hemisphere was classified as Type I, II, or III. Compared with controls, more EP/ELBW adolescents possessed a Type II in the left hemisphere (P = 0.019). The EP/ELBW group had fewer IOS (P = 0.024) and more POS (P = 0.021) in the left hemisphere compared with controls. OFC pattern type was not associated with mental illness, however in terms of executive functioning, Type III in the left hemisphere was associated with better parent-reported metacognition scores overall (P = 0.008) and better self-reported behavioral regulation scores in the control group (P = 0.001) compared with Type I. We show, for the first time that EP/ELBW birth is associated with changes in orbitofrontal development, and that specific patterns of OFC folding are associated with executive function at age 18 years in both EP/ELBW and control subjects.

  13. Impact of Caffeine on Weight Changes Due to Ketotifen Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohlool Habibi Asl

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Prescription of ketotifen as an effective antihistamine in asthma and allergic conditions is associated with side effect of weight gain. Caffeine is an agent which increases thermogenesis and improves energy expenditure and also effective in asthma. The aim of current study was to evaluate caffeine impact in reducing weight gain side effect of ketotifen. Methods: Male mice at the weight limit of 20-30 g in 8 groups were randomly chosen and injected following drug dosages for 45 days intraperitoneally: control group (normal saline 10 ml/kg, three groups of ketotifen (4, 8, 16 mg/kg, three groups of caffeine (4, 8, 16 mg/kg and one group of ketotifen (4 mg/kg in combination with caffeine (4 mg/kg. Weight changes have been recorded and assessed every 3 days for 45 days. Results: The results showed that in all dosages of the two drugs, significant weight loss occurred in comparison with the control group. Conclusion: The effect of caffeine on weight loss according to our results, matches with human studies, while ketotifen contradictory to our assumption, resulted in weight loss which probably was related to the difference in metabolic pathways in mice and humans, or maybe the used doses of ketotifen in this study were insufficient to reduce TNF-α production or influence in serotonin release and be effective on appetite or weight gain.

  14. Longitudinal changes in blood pressure during weight loss and regain of weight in obese boys and girls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jens-Christian; Gamborg, Michael; Neland, Mette

    2012-01-01

    To investigate blood pressure (BP) in relation to changes in body mass index (BMI) in obese children during weight loss and subsequent weight regain.......To investigate blood pressure (BP) in relation to changes in body mass index (BMI) in obese children during weight loss and subsequent weight regain....

  15. Height, weight, weight change and risk of breast cancer in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anelise Bezerra de Vasconcelos

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: The relationship between body size and breast cancer still remains controversial in considering menopausal status. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of height, weight and weight changes with breast cancer in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: National Cancer Institute (INCA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ. SAMPLE: 177 incident cases of invasive breast cancer admitted to the main hospital of INCA between May 1995 and February 1996, and 377 controls recruited from among female visitors to the same hospital. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Height and weight were measured and information on maximum weight, weight at ages 18 and 30 years, and potential risk factors were ascertained by interview at the hospital. RESULTS: Height was not related to risk of breast cancer among both pre and postmenopausal women. Nevertheless, women in this study were shorter than in studies that have found a positive association. Premenopausal women in the upper quartile of recent body mass index (BMI and maximum BMI showed a reduced risk of breast cancer (P for trend <= 0.03. Weight loss between ages 18 and 30 years and from 18 years to present was also associated with breast cancer among premenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may merely indicate the known association between leanness and breast cancer. Further studies should explore the role of weight loss on breast cancer risk.

  16. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Extremes Across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, C.; Dahné, J.; Andersson, J.; Arheimer, B.

    2012-04-01

    Regional scale predictions of floods and droughts are particularly useful for demonstrating to the general public the potential impacts of climate change, for example for the European continent. The E-HYPE pan-European application of the HYPE model was used to simulate hydrological data at a median subbasin resolution of 215 km2 for all of Europe. This data was then used to calculate, at this resolution, a number of drought and flood indices for today's climate and for a small ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate change projections. Indices calculated include the 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 year flood levels, mean annual high water discharge, mean annual low water discharge, number of days per year with hydrological drought and agricultural drought and the intensity of days with agricultural drought. Maps showing the relative changes in these variables for various time periods in the future were then made from the results. These maps may then be used to indicate 'hot-spots' for where hydrological extremes are important today and for where large changes in flood and drought levels or frequency may be expected for a future climate. The E-HYPE model, used to make these predictions, has been evaluated using a large data set of discharge observations (over 800) at independent sites across Europe. The model uses readily available pan-European input data sets and a single parameter set across the entire continent. This homogenous treatment of the model domain means that results from all over Europe are easily comparable. Validation is made to ensure the model simulates discharge volumes and daily variation at each station, but novel for this study is that a validation of the model's ability to capture the drought and flood indices was also made. Although E-HYPE is a large domain model, the high subbasin resolution means that these results are available at high-resolution across Europe. Nevertheless, prediction uncertainty increases with decreasing catchment scale, so this

  17. The contribution of visual processing to academic achievement in adolescents born extremely preterm or extremely low birth weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molloy, Carly S; Di Battista, Ashley M; Anderson, Vicki A; Burnett, Alice; Lee, Katherine J; Roberts, Gehan; Cheong, Jeanie Ly; Anderson, Peter J; Doyle, Lex W

    2017-04-01

    Children born extremely preterm (EP, visual processing. The aim of this study is to determine (1) if visual processing is related to poor academic outcomes in EP/ELBW adolescents, and (2) how much of the variance in academic achievement in EP/ELBW adolescents is explained by visual processing ability after controlling for perinatal risk factors and other known contributors to academic performance, particularly attention and working memory. A geographically determined cohort of 228 surviving EP/ELBW adolescents (mean age 17 years) was studied. The relationships between measures of visual processing (visual acuity, binocular stereopsis, eye convergence, and visual perception) and academic achievement were explored within the EP/ELBW group. Analyses were repeated controlling for perinatal and social risk, and measures of attention and working memory. It was found that visual acuity, convergence and visual perception are related to scores for academic achievement on univariable regression analyses. After controlling for potential confounds (perinatal and social risk, working memory and attention), visual acuity, convergence and visual perception remained associated with reading and math computation, but only convergence and visual perception are related to spelling. The additional variance explained by visual processing is up to 6.6% for reading, 2.7% for spelling, and 2.2% for math computation. None of the visual processing variables or visual motor integration are associated with handwriting on multivariable analysis. Working memory is generally a stronger predictor of reading, spelling, and math computation than visual processing. It was concluded that visual processing difficulties are significantly related to academic outcomes in EP/ELBW adolescents; therefore, specific attention should be paid to academic remediation strategies incorporating the management of working memory and visual processing in EP/ELBW children.

  18. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend...

  19. Changes of adiponectin oligomer composition by moderate weight reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobbert, Thomas; Rochlitz, Helmut; Wegewitz, Uta; Akpulat, Suzan; Mai, Knut; Weickert, Martin O; Möhlig, Matthias; Pfeiffer, Andreas F H; Spranger, Joachim

    2005-09-01

    Adiponectin affects lipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. However, adiponectin circulates in three different oligomers that may also have distinct biological functions. We aimed to analyze the role of these oligomers in obesity and lipid metabolism after weight reduction. A total of 17 obese volunteers (15 women and 2 men) participated in a weight reduction program. Individuals were characterized before and after 6 months of a balanced diet. Adiponectin was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and oligomers were detected by nondenaturating Western blot. BMI decreased (35.1 +/- 1.2 to 32.8 +/- 1.1 kg/m(2), P < 0.001), which was associated with an improved metabolite profile. Total adiponectin increased from 5.3 +/- 0.5 to 6.1 +/- 0.6 microg/ml (P = 0.076). High (HMW) and medium molecular weight (MMW) adiponectin oligomers significantly increased during weight reduction (HMW: 0.37 +/- 0.07 to 0.4 +/- 0.08 microg/ml, P = 0.042; MMW: 2.3 +/- 0.2 to 2.9 +/- 0.3 microg/ml, P = 0.007), while low molecular weight (LMW) did not significantly change. Body weight inversely correlated with HMW (r = -0.695, P = 0.002) and positively with LMW (r = 0.579, P = 0.015). Interestingly, HDL cholesterol and HMW were strongly correlated (r = 0.665, P = 0.007). Indeed, HMW and free fatty acids before weight reduction predicted approximately 60% of HDL changes during intervention. In conclusion, weight reduction results in a relative increase of HMW/MMW adiponectin and a reduction of LMW adiponectin. Total adiponectin and especially HMW adiponectin are related to circulating HDL cholesterol.

  20. Five-year weight changes associate with blood pressure alterations independent of changes in serum insulin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seven, Ekim; Husemoen, Lise L N; Wachtell, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    ). METHODS: We assessed the glucose-insulin metabolism by a standard oral glucose tolerance test. We divided the antihypertensive and antidiabetic medication-free participants into three groups: weight loss (n = 515), weight stable (n = 1778), and weight gain (n = 1150). RESULTS: Losing on average 6.5 kg......OBJECTIVE: In overweight-related hypertension, the effect of weight changes on blood pressure (BP) is believed to be mediated by insulin. To test this hypothesis, we studied 5-year changes in weight, BP, and insulin in a general population of Danish adults (n = 3443; mean age 45.7 ± 7.6 years...... body weight, the weight loss group experienced a 28.2% reduction [(95% confidence interval [CI] -31 to -25); P weight gain group experienced a 12.5% increase [(95% CI 9...

  1. The effect of segmental weight of prosthesis on hemodynamic responses and energy expenditure of lower extremity amputees

    OpenAIRE

    Mutlu, Akmer; Kharooty, Mohammad Dawood; Yakut, Yavuz

    2017-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of segmental weight of the prosthesis on hemodynamic responses and energy expenditure in lower extremity amputees. [Subjects and Methods] Thirteen patients with a mean age of 44 ± 15.84 years and with unilateral transtibial, transfemoral and Syme’s amputation were included to the study. The difference between the lightest and the heaviest prosthesis, 250 g used as the weight. All the patients completed the measurements first withou...

  2. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  3. Extreme Temperatures May Increase Risk for Low Birth Weight at Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... at term, NIH study suggests Skip sharing on social media links Share this: Page Content Monday, February 27, 201 7 -Stock photo Extreme hot or cold temperatures during pregnancy may increase the risk that infants born at ...

  4. Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hoffmann, Peter

    2016-04-01

    An increase of hydro-climatic extremes can be observed worldwide and is challenging national and regional risk management and adaptation plans. Our study presents and discusses possible trends in climate drivers and hydro-climatic extremes in Europe observed and under future climate conditions. In a case study for Germany, impacts of different regional climate scenario ensembles are compared. To this end, a hydrological model was applied to transform the scenarios data into river runoff for more than 5000 river reaches in Germany. Extreme Value Distributions have been fitted to the hydrographs of the river reaches to derive the basic flood statistics. The results for each river reach have been linked to related damage functions as provided by the German Insurance Association considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The robust result is that under scenario conditions a significant increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany, while also the number of low flow events may rise.

  5. The effect of segmental weight of prosthesis on hemodynamic responses and energy expenditure of lower extremity amputees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutlu, Akmer; Kharooty, Mohammad Dawood; Yakut, Yavuz

    2017-04-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of segmental weight of the prosthesis on hemodynamic responses and energy expenditure in lower extremity amputees. [Subjects and Methods] Thirteen patients with a mean age of 44 ± 15.84 years and with unilateral transtibial, transfemoral and Syme's amputation were included to the study. The difference between the lightest and the heaviest prosthesis, 250 g used as the weight. All the patients completed the measurements first without weight and then with 250 g weight on the ankle joint. The blood pressure and heart rate of the patients were recorded before and after Six Minute Walk Test (6MWT) and 10 stairs up & down stairs test. Physiological Cost Index was used to calculate the energy expenditure. [Results] Heart rate and energy expenditure increased significantly when without weight and with weight results compared. [Conclusion] We conclude that the segmental weight of the prosthetic limb has a significant effect on the heart rate and energy expenditure but has no effect on the systolic and diastolic blood pressure of lower limb amputees. In order to generalize our results to lower limb amputees, more patients need to be included in future studies.

  6. Allocation of feed based on individual dairy cow live weight changes: I: Feed intake and live weight changes during lactation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bossen, Dorte; Weisbjerg, Martin Riis; Munksgaard, Lene

    2009-01-01

    Based on individual cow live weight changes, feeding strategies were designed for individual feeding of dairy cows in loose-housing systems and examined in a four-year production trial including 115 Danish Red (DR), 91 Danish Holstein (DH) and 93 Danish Jersey (DJ). Cows were kept in a dairy system...

  7. Maternal weight change from prepregnancy to 7 years postpartum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Helene; Stovring, Henrik; Rasmussen, Kathleen M

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We studied the influence of maternal behavior on weight change from prepregnancy to 7 years postpartum. METHODS: We used linear regression to study the independent and combined associations between self-reported behavior in pregnancy (dietary intake, leisure-time exercise, sedentary...... activity, smoking) and postpartum (breastfeeding duration and smoking) on weights at 6 months, 18 months, and 7 years postpartum. RESULTS: Women's average 7-year weight gain was 2.07 kg, with 23% gaining >5 kg. Multivariable analyses suggested that women with healthier dietary intake, more leisure......-time exercise, less sedentary behavior, and longer duration of breastfeeding on average gained 1.66 kg [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.40; 1.91] with a significantly reduced odds [OR 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.64)] of gaining >5 kg from prepregnancy to 7 years postpartum compared to women with none or one...

  8. Venous hemodynamic changes of lower extremity during gynecological laparoscopy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Shan-de; LIU Yan; HE Sheng

    2004-01-01

    To study the effect of CO2 pneumoperitoneum and the special 30 degree head-down tilt positionon the venous hemodynamics in the lower extremity. Methods: Color doplex ultrasound was adopted to evaluate the diameterand blood flow velocity of the right femoral vein of 18 patients undergoing gynecologic laparoscopy under the same pressure ofpneumoperitoneum of 12 mmHg. The diameter of femoral vein and the flow velocity were measured; the blood flow volumewas calculated based on the equation of Q = vπr2 . Result: After establishment of pneumoperitoneum, the dilation of the fem-oral vein and the decrease in the velocity and volume can be observed (P < 0.05). And the 30 degree head-down positioncould increase the flow velocity and volume of the femoral vein and decrease the diameter of the vessel ( P < 0.05). At 30minutes of the 30 degree head-down tilt position, the blood flow ameliorated compared with that in prone position after theestablishment of pneumoperitoneum. After deflation of pneumoperitoneum, the femoral vein remained dilated( P < 0.05 ).Conclusion: During laparoscopy, CO2 pneumoperitoneum may result in the dilation of the vein in lower extremity and retar-dance of blood flow. The 30 degree Trendlenburg position can ameliorate the blood flow in the lower extremity. The deflationof the pneumoperitoneum cannot eliminate the effect of CO2 pneumoperitoneum on the lower extremity veins, which may pre-dispose deep venous thrombosis after laparoscopy.

  9. Controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmild, Mette; Zhu, Minyan

    2016-01-01

    the financial crisis, we illustrate the impact of the proposed weight restrictions in two different efficiency models; one related to banks’ funding mix and one related to their asset mix. The results show that using a more balanced set of weights tend to reduce the estimated efficiency scores more for those...

  10. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  11. The 5-minute Apgar score: survival and short-term outcomes in extremely low-birth-weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalen, Ann Gibbons; Kirkby, Sharon; Dysart, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    The Apgar score is a standardized tool for evaluating newborns in the delivery room. Despite its long history and widespread use, debate remains over its reliability of predicting neonatal outcomes, especially in extremely low-birth-weight premature infants. The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between the 5-minute Apgar score of extremely low-birth-weight infants, as it relates to survival and morbidities associated with prematurity and length of hospital stay. A retrospective query of the Alere neonatal database from 2001 to 2011 examined all infants less than 32 weeks' gestation and less than 1000-g birth weight. The 5-minute Apgar score was divided into 2 groups, score of 4 or greater or less than 4. The study compared results of the 5-minute Apgar score and associated morbidities in surviving infants. Statistical analyses included chi-square, Fisher exact test, t test, and multivariate regression. The sample consisted of 3898 infants with an 86.4% (n = 3366) survival rate. Controlling for gestational age and birth weight, surviving infants with a 5-minute Apgar score of less than 4 were more likely to demonstrate nonintact survival. Infants with a low 5-minute Apgar score have greater risk for mortality and morbidities associated with prematurity.

  12. Caloric restriction induces changes in insulin and body weight measurements that are inversely associated with subsequent weight regain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wong, Monica H T; Holst, Claus; Astrup, Arne;

    2012-01-01

    Successful weight maintenance following weight loss is challenging for many people. Identifying predictors of longer-term success will help target clinical resources more effectively. To date, focus has been predominantly on the identification of predictors of weight loss. The goal of the current...... study was to determine if changes in anthropometric and clinical parameters during acute weight loss are associated with subsequent weight regain....

  13. Reprogramming the body weight set point by a reciprocal interaction of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc gene expression reverts extreme obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, Kavaljit H; Adams, Jessica M; Jones, Graham L; Yamashita, Miho; Schlapschy, Martin; Skerra, Arne; Rubinstein, Marcelo; Low, Malcolm J

    2016-10-01

    A major challenge for obesity treatment is the maintenance of reduced body weight. Diet-induced obese mice are resistant to achieving normoweight once the obesogenic conditions are reversed, in part because lowered circulating leptin leads to a reduction in metabolic rate and a rebound of hyperphagia that defend the previously elevated body weight set point. Because hypothalamic POMC is a central leptin target, we investigated whether changes in circulating leptin modify Pomc expression to maintain normal energy balance in genetically predisposed obese mice. Mice with reversible Pomc silencing in the arcuate nucleus (ArcPomc (-/-)) become morbidly obese eating low-fat chow. We measured body composition, food intake, plasma leptin, and leptin sensitivity in ArcPomc (-/-) mice weight-matched to littermate controls by calorie restriction, either from weaning or after developing obesity. Pomc was reactivated by tamoxifen-dependent Cre recombinase transgenes. Long acting PASylated leptin was administered to weight-reduced ArcPomc (-/-) mice to mimic the super-elevated leptin levels of obese mice. ArcPomc (-/-) mice had increased adiposity and leptin levels shortly after weaning. Despite chronic calorie restriction to achieve normoweight, ArcPomc (-/-) mice remained moderately hyperleptinemic and resistant to exogenous leptin's effects to reduce weight and food intake. However, subsequent Pomc reactivation in weight-matched ArcPomc (-/-) mice normalized plasma leptin, leptin sensitivity, adiposity, and food intake. In contrast, extreme hyperleptinemia induced by PASylated leptin blocked the full restoration of hypothalamic Pomc expression in calorie restricted ArcPomc (-/-) mice, which consequently regained 30% of their lost body weight and attained a metabolic steady state similar to that of tamoxifen treated obese ArcPomc (-/-) mice. Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc (-/-) mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body

  14. Variability and long-term change in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dörte Jakob

    2016-12-01

    We conclude that in assessing the likelihood of climate hazards, one needs to consider the modulation of climate extremes due to both long-term change and climate variability. Our findings imply that when planning for adaptation, different emphasis needs to be given to changing temperature and precipitation extremes.

  15. Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe's Climate of the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Tank, Albertus Maria Gerardus

    2004-01-01

    This thesis aims at increasing the knowledge on past changes in extremes through the analysis of historical records of observations at meteorological stations. The key question addressed is: How did the extremes of daily surface air temperature and precipitation change in Europe's climate of the

  16. Factors affecting prenatal sonographic estimation of weight in extremely low birthweight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, R R; Filly, R A; Callen, P W; Laros, R K

    1988-04-01

    Because critical management decisions are based on sonographic estimation of fetal weight in fetuses less than 1000 g, we sought to evaluate the accuracy of birthweight prediction in this range and to identify factors affecting this accuracy. Fetal weight was estimated using several published methods in 53 fetuses with birthweights less than 1000 g. Standard deviations greater than 12.3% indicate more random error in the sonographic weight prediction than has been reported in higher weight groups. No statistically significant differences were found between patient groups with decreased, normal, or increased amniotic fluid volume or portable examination. There was a trend toward lower mean deviation (2.9 vs 6.0%) and standard deviation (8.9 vs. 15.0%) in studies with scan quality judged "good" compared with "poor" based on ability to visualize anatomic landmarks.

  17. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

  18. Predicting success: factors associated with weight change in obese youth undertaking a weight management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Kimberley A; Ware, Robert S; Batch, Jennifer A; Truby, Helen

    2013-01-01

    To explore which baseline physiological and psychosocial variables predict change in body mass index (BMI) z-score in obese youth after 12 weeks of a dietary weight management study. Participants were obese young people participating in a dietary intervention trial in Brisbane Australia. The outcome variable was change in BMI z-score. Potential predictors considered included demographic, physiological and psychosocial parameters of the young person, and demographic characteristics of their parents. A multivariable regression model was constructed to examine the effect of potential predictive variables. Participants (n = 88) were predominantly female (69.3%), and had a mean(standard deviation) age of 13.1(1.9) years and BMI z-score of 2.2(0.4) on presentation. Lower BMI z-score (p resistance (p = 0.04) at baseline, referral from a paediatrician (p = 0.02) and being more socially advantaged (p = 0.046) were significantly associated with weight loss. Macronutrient distribution of diet and physical activity level did not contribute. Early intervention in obesity treatment in young people improves likelihood of success. Other factors such as degree of insulin resistance, social advantage and referral source also appear to play a role. Assessing presenting characteristics and factors associated with treatment outcome may allow practicing clinicians to individualise a weight management program or determine the 'best-fit' treatment for an obese adolescent. © 2013 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

  20. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  1. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willems, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change...

  2. Early weight changes after birth and serum high-molecular-weight adiponectin level in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Tomohide; Nagasaki, Hiraku; Asato, Yoshihide; Ohta, Takao

    2011-12-01

    Extra-uterine growth retardation (EUGR) is associated with an increased risk for cardiometabolic diseases later in life. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between early weight change after birth in preterm infants and adiponectin (adn) multimeric complexes. Subjects included 28 preterm infants born between weeks 24 and 33 of gestation. Serum adn multimeric complexes and the anthropometric parameters were measured in preterm infants at birth and at corrected term. Bodyweight (BW) decreased during the first week of life, with birthweight restored at approximately 19 days after birth. Nineteen of the subjects had EUGR at corrected term. Total (T)-adn, high-molecular-weight (H)-adn, and the ratio of H-adn to T-adn (H/T-adn) were significantly elevated at corrected term than at birth. Postmenstrual age, birthweight, birth length and lowest BW after birth were positively correlated with H-adn and H/T-adn. Weight reduction after birth was negatively correlated with H-adn. Age to restore birthweight was negatively correlated with T-adn, H-adn and H/T-adn. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated age to restore birthweight as the major predictor of T-adn and H-adn. Early weight changes after birth may alter serum adn level in preterm infants at corrected term. The appropriate nutritional support in the early postnatal period could reduce the prevalence of EUGR and the future risk for cardiometabolic diseases. © 2011 The Authors. Pediatrics International © 2011 Japan Pediatric Society.

  3. Lower-extremity weight-bearing compliance is maintained over time after biofeedback training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hustedt, Joshua W; Blizzard, Daniel J; Baumgaertner, Michael R; Leslie, Michael P; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2012-11-01

    Previous studies have shown immediate compliance with weight-bearing instructions to be better after biofeedback training than after verbal or scale training. This study assessed retention of biofeedback training to determine potential clinical applicability. Twelve participants were enrolled in a prospective clinical study at an academic orthopedic center. Participants were trained with a biofeedback device to comply with touch-down weight-bearing instructions (25 lb). Immediately following the training session, weight bearing was assessed for each participant. The retention of this training was then reassessed at 2 to 4, 6 to 8, and 22 to 24 hours. Two control participants were given no biofeedback training (verbal instructions only) and were followed similarly. Following initial biofeedback training at 25 lb, participants bore an average of 20.4±2.12 lb. Retention tests during the 24-hour period showed no significant difference from the original testing, with 2- to 4-hour retention of 19.98±4.75 lb, 6- to 8-hour retention of 25.07±6.60 lb, and 22- to 24-hour retention of 21.75±4.58 lb. Participants who only received verbal instructions consistently bore several-fold greater weight than instructed. Biofeedback training has previously been shown to have a strong immediate effect on partial weight-bearing compliance. This study demonstrated that this effect lasts up to 24 hours. This maintained weight-bearing compliance after biofeedback training suggests that this method may be an effective way to train patients to comply with given instructions for limited weight bearing.

  4. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2012-09-01

    A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi-stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the "blocking" anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

  5. Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xin; Fang, Guohua; Qi, Heshuai; Zhou, Lei; Gao, Yuqin

    2016-10-01

    Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 °C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are -20.1, -20.8, and -21.5 °C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66-4.92 °C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9-13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.

  6. Bariatric surgery-induced weight loss causes remission of food addiction in extreme obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepino, Marta Yanina; Stein, Richard I; Eagon, J Christopher; Klein, Samuel

    2014-08-01

    To test the hypotheses that bariatric surgery-induced weight loss: induces remission of food addiction (FA), and normalizes other eating behaviors associated with FA. Forty-four obese subjects (BMI= 48 ± 8 kg/m(2) ) were studied before and after ∼20% weight loss induced by bariatric surgery (25 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, 11 laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding, and eight sleeve gastrectomy). We assessed: FA (Yale Food Addiction Scale), food cravings (Food Craving Inventory), and restrictive, emotional and external eating behaviors (Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire). FA was identified in 32% of subjects before surgery. Compared with non-FA subjects, those with FA craved foods more frequently, and had higher scores for emotional and external eating behaviors (all P-values 0.8). Surgery-induced weight loss resulted in remission of FA in 93% of FA subjects; no new cases of FA developed after surgery. Surgery-induced weight loss decreased food cravings, and emotional and external eating behaviors in both groups (all P-values 1.1). Bariatric surgery-induced weight loss induces remission of FA and improves several eating behaviors that are associated with FA. Copyright © 2014 The Obesity Society.

  7. The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Betts, Richard A.

    2013-02-01

    Abstract Understanding how temperature extremes respond in a climate forced by human activity is of great importance, as extreme temperatures are detrimental to health and often responsible for mortality increases. While previous detection and attribution studies demonstrated a significant human influence on the recent warming of daily extremes, contributions of individual anthropogenic forcings like changes in land use have not yet been investigated in such studies. Here we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to data from observations and experiments with a new earth system model to examine whether changing land use has led to detectable changes in daily extreme temperatures on a quasi-global scale. We find that loss of trees and increase of grassland since preindustrial times has caused an overall cooling trend in both mean and extreme temperatures which is detectable in the observed changes of warm but not cold extremes. The warming in both mean and extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic forcings other than land use is detected in all cases, whereas the weaker effect of natural climatic forcings is not detected in any. This is the first formal attribution of observed climatic changes to changing land use, suggesting further investigations are justified, particularly in studies of warm extremes.

  8. Social stress at work and change in women's body weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottwitz, Maria U; Grebner, Simone; Semmer, Norbert K; Tschan, Franziska; Elfering, Achim

    2014-01-01

    Social stressors at work (such as conflict or animosities) imply disrespect or a lack of appreciation and thus a threat to self. Stress induced by this offence to self might result, over time, in a change in body weight. The current study investigated the impact of changing working conditions--specifically social stressors, demands, and control at work--on women's change in weighted Body-Mass-Index over the course of a year. Fifty-seven women in their first year of occupational life participated at baseline and thirty-eight at follow-up. Working conditions were assessed by self-reports and observer-ratings. Body-Mass-Index at baseline and change in Body-Mass-Index one year later were regressed on self-reported social stressors as well as observed work stressors, observed job control, and their interaction. Seen individually, social stressors at work predicted Body-Mass-Index. Moreover, increase in social stressors and decrease of job control during the first year of occupational life predicted increase in Body-Mass-Index. Work redesign that reduces social stressors at work and increases job control could help to prevent obesity epidemic.

  9. Changes in weather extremes over East Asia due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Min-Hee; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Geun

    2010-05-01

    The changes in weather extremes due to the global warming induced by the emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases have received growing attention in climate research community. In this study, the authors introduce new indices that assess changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia for the periods of past 100 years and future 100 years. Observed temperatures and precipitation at 895 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan have been analyzed for 1960s-2000s. In addition, we examined data from a global climate model simulation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model for 1900-2099. The observations show increasing trends in warm and dry extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, particularly in northern East Asia. A notable regional anomaly is the increase in wet extremes over the Korean Peninsula. The temperature extremes in the model simulations are similar to the observed features in the same region during the for the 20th and 21st century periods.

  10. Effect of ice massage on lower extremity functional performance and weight discrimination ability in collegiate footballers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Geeta; Noohu, Majumi Mohamad

    2014-09-01

    Cryotherapy, in the form of ice massge is used to reduce inflammation after acute musculoskeletal injury or trauma. The potential negative effects of ice massage on proprioception are unknown, despite equivocal evidence supporting its effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to test the influence of cooling on weight discrimination ability and hence the performance in footballers. The study was of same subject experimental design (pretest-posttest design). Thirty male collegiate football players, whose mean age was 21.07 years, participated in the study. The participants were assessed for two functional performance tests, single leg hop test and crossed over hop test and weight discrimination ability before and after ice massage for 5 minutes on hamstrings muscle tendon. Pre cooling scores of Single Leg Hop Test of the dominant leg in the subjects was 166.65 (± 10.16) cm and post cooling scores of the dominant leg was 167.25 (± 11.77) cm. Pre cooling scores of Crossed Over Hop Test of the dominant leg in the subjects was 174.14 (± 8.60) cm and post cooling scores of the dominant leg was 174.45 (± 9.28) cm. Pre cooling scores of Weight Discrimination Differential Threshold of the dominant leg in the subjects was 1.625 ± 1.179 kg compared with post cooling scores of the dominant leg 1.85 (± 1.91) kg. Pre cooling scores of single leg hop and crossed over hop test of the dominant leg in the subjects compared with post cooling scores of the dominant leg showed no significant differences and it was also noted that the weight discrimination ability (weight discrimination differential threshold) didn't show any significant difference. All the values are reported as mean ± SD. This study provides additional evidence that proprioceptive acuity in the hamstring muscles (biceps femoris) remains largely unaffected after ice application to the hamstrings tendon (biceps femoris).

  11. Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jamaludin, Suhaila; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2009-05-01

    This paper assesses recent changes in extremes of annual rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on daily rainfall data for ten rain-gauged stations over the period 1971-2005. Eight indices that represent the extreme events are defined and analyzed. Maps of trends for these indices, which are extreme dry spell (XDS), extreme rain sum (XRS), extreme wet day intensities at 95% and 99% percentiles (I95 and I99), proportion of extreme wet day to the total wet day (R95 and R99), and frequency of extreme wet day at 95% and 99% percentiles (N95 and N99), were analyzed based on annual data and seasons. When the indices are evaluated annually, the Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend tests showed increasing trends in the extreme intensity indices (I95 and I99) at two stations. A significant decrease in N99, associated with the frequency of extremely wet days, was observed at 60% of the stations. The change points for these indices are found to occur in the period of the 1980s. There is no significant trend detected for XDS, XRS, and proportion of extreme rainfall over total rainfall amount indices during the period considered in this study. Descriptive analysis of indices during the monsoon period showed that the annual spatial pattern for the peninsula is very much influenced by the northeast monsoon where the highest mean values for majority of the indices occur during this time period.

  12. Body composition analyses by air displacement plethysmography in adults ranging from normal weight to extremely obese

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Kazanna C.; Anthony, Steven J.; Thornton, John C.; Gallagher, Dympna; Goodpaster, Bret H.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To compare body composition parameters estimated by air displacement plethysmography (ADP) to dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in body mass index (BMI) classifications that include extremely obese (BMI≥40.0kg/m2), and to examine if differences between analyses were influenced by BMI. Design and Methods Fat free mass (FFM,kg), fat mass (FM,kg) and body fat (BF,%) were analyzed with both technologies. Results All outcome measures of ADP and DXA were highly correlated (r≥0.95,Pobese classification; ADP estimated lower FFM and greater FM and BF (Pobese. PMID:24170704

  13. Analysis of observational data from Extreme Ultra-Violet Camera onboard Chang'E-3 mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan; Wang, Hua-Ning; He, Han; He, Fei; Chen, Bo; Feng, Jian-Qing; Ping, Jin-Song; Shen, Chao; Xu, Rong-Lan; Zhang, Xiao-Xin

    2016-02-01

    The Extreme Ultra-Violet Camera (hereafter EUVC) is a scientific payload onboard the lander of the Chang'E-3 (hereafter CE-3) mission launched on December 1st, 2013. Centering on a spectral band around 30.4 nm, EUVC provides the global images of the Earth's plasmasphere from the meridian view, with a spatial resolution of 0.1 R_{oplus} in 150 × 150 pixels and a cadence of 10 minutes. Along with the data being publicly released online, some unsettled issues in the early stage have been clarified, including the geometrical preparations, the refined approach on the coefficient K for the background, and the alignment among the images. A demo of data after all the above processes is therefore presented as a guidance for users who are studying the structure and dynamics of the plasmasphere.

  14. Body weight and beauty: the changing face of the ideal female body weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafini, B A; Pozzilli, P

    2011-01-01

    By observing the art of different eras, as well as the more recent existence of the media, it is obvious that there have been dramatic changes in what is considered a beautiful body. The ideal of female beauty has shifted from a symbol of fertility to one of mathematically calculated proportions. It has taken the form of an image responding to men's sexual desires. Nowadays there seems to be a tendency towards the destruction of the feminine, as androgynous fashion and appearance dominate our culture. The metamorphosis of the ideal woman follows the shifting role of women in society from mother and mistress to a career-orientated individual. Her depiction by artists across the centuries reveals this change in role and appearance that should be interpreted within the social and historical context of each era with its own theories of what constituted the ideal female body weight.

  15. Trends in survival among extremely-low-birth-weight infants (less than 1000 g without significant bronchopulmonary dysplasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botet Francesc

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the evolution from 1997 to 2009 of survival without significant (moderate and severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (SWsBPD in extremely-low-birth-weight (ELBW infants and to determine the influence of changes in resuscitation, nutrition and mechanical ventilation on the survival rate. Study design In this study, 415 premature infants with birth weights below 1000 g (ELBW were divided into three chronological subgroups: 1997 to 2000 (n = 65, 2001 to 2005 (n = 178 and 2006 to 2009 (n = 172. Between 1997 and 2000, respiratory resuscitation in the delivery room was performed via a bag and mask (Ambu®, Ballerup, Sweden with 40-50% oxygen. If this procedure was not effective, oral endotracheal intubation was always performed. Pulse oximetry was never used. Starting on January 1, 2001, a change in the delivery room respiratory policy was established for ELBW infants. Oxygenation and heart rate were monitored using a pulse oximeter (Nellcor® attached to the newborn’s right hand. If resuscitation was required, ventilation was performed using a face mask, and intermittent positive pressure was controlled via a ventilator (Babylog2, Drägger. In 2001, a policy of aggressive nutrition was also initiated with the early provision of parenteral amino acids. We used standardized parenteral nutrition to feed ELBW infants during the first 12–24 hours of life. Lipids were given on the first day. The glucose concentration administered was increased by 1 mg/kg/minute each day until levels reached 8 mg/kg/minute. Enteral nutrition was started with trophic feeding of milk. In 2006, volume guarantee treatment was instituted and administered together with synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation (SIMV + VG. The complications of prematurity were treated similarly throughout the study period. Patent ductus arteriosus was only treated when hemodynamically significant. Surgical closure of the

  16. Caloric restriction induces changes in insulin and body weight measurements that are inversely associated with subsequent weight regain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Monica H T; Holst, Claus; Astrup, Arne; Handjieva-Darlenska, Teodora; Jebb, Susan A; Kafatos, Anthony; Kunesova, Marie; Larsen, Thomas M; Martinez, J Alfredo; Pfeiffer, Andreas F H; van Baak, Marleen A; Saris, Wim H M; McNicholas, Paul D; Mutch, David M

    2012-01-01

    Successful weight maintenance following weight loss is challenging for many people. Identifying predictors of longer-term success will help target clinical resources more effectively. To date, focus has been predominantly on the identification of predictors of weight loss. The goal of the current study was to determine if changes in anthropometric and clinical parameters during acute weight loss are associated with subsequent weight regain. The study consisted of an 8-week low calorie diet (LCD) followed by a 6-month weight maintenance phase. Anthropometric and clinical parameters were analyzed before and after the LCD in the 285 participants (112 men, 173 women) who regained weight during the weight maintenance phase. Mixed model ANOVA, Spearman correlation, and linear regression were used to study the relationships between clinical measurements and weight regain. Gender differences were observed for body weight and several clinical parameters at both baseline and during the LCD-induced weight loss phase. LCD-induced changes in BMI (Spearman's ρ = 0.22, p = 0.0002) were inversely associated with weight regain in both men and women. LCD-induced changes in fasting insulin (ρ = 0.18, p = 0.0043) and HOMA-IR (ρ = 0.19, p = 0.0023) were also associated independently with weight regain in both genders. The aforementioned associations remained statistically significant in regression models taking account of variables known to independently influence body weight. LCD-induced changes in BMI, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR are inversely associated with weight regain in the 6-month period following weight loss.

  17. Diet quality, physical activity, smoking status, and weight fluctuation are associated with weight change in women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimokoti, Ruth W; Newby, P K; Gona, Philimon; Zhu, Lei; Jasuja, Guneet K; Pencina, Michael J; McKeon-O'Malley, Catherine; Fox, Caroline S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Millen, Barbara E

    2010-07-01

    The effect of diet quality on weight change, relative to other body weight determinants, is insufficiently understood. Furthermore, research on long-term weight change in U.S. adults is limited. We evaluated prospectively patterns and predictors of weight change in Framingham Offspring/Spouse (FOS) women and men (n = 1515) aged > or =30 y with BMI > or = 18.5 kg/m2 and without cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at baseline over a 16-y period. Diet quality was assessed using the validated Framingham Nutritional Risk Score. In women, older age (P < 0.0001) and physical activity (P < 0.05) were associated with lower weight gain. Diet quality interacted with former smoking status (P-interaction = 0.02); former smokers with lower diet quality gained an additional 5.2 kg compared with those with higher diet quality (multivariable-adjusted P-trend = 0.06). Among men, older age (P < 0.0001) and current smoking (P < 0.01) were associated with lower weight gain, and weight fluctuation (P < 0.01) and former smoking status (P < 0.0001) were associated with greater weight gain. Age was the strongest predictor of weight change in both women (partial R(2) = 11%) and men (partial R(2) = 8.6%). Normal- and overweight women gained more than obese women (P < 0.05) and younger adults gained more weight than older adults (P < 0.0001). Patterns and predictors of weight change differ by sex. Age in both sexes and physical activity among women as well as weight fluctuation and smoking status in men were stronger predictors of weight change than diet quality among FOS adults. Women who stopped smoking over follow-up and had poor diet quality gained the most weight. Preventive interventions need to be sex-specific and consider lifestyle factors.

  18. Impact of Early Nutrition on Body Composition in Children Aged 9.5 Years Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Stutte

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW, we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA. Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01. Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05, but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.. In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001. Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05, whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05. Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children.

  19. Impact of Early Nutrition on Body Composition in Children Aged 9.5 Years Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutte, Sonja; Gohlke, Bettina; Peiler, Annika; Schreiner, Felix; Born, Mark; Bartmann, Peter; Woelfle, Joachim

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW), we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01). Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05), but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.). In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001). Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05), whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS) contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05). Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children. PMID:28208596

  20. Piglets’ Surface Temperature Change at Different Weights at Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldara, Fabiana Ribeiro; dos Santos, Luan Sousa; Machado, Sivanilza Teixeira; Moi, Marta; de Alencar Nääs, Irenilza; Foppa, Luciana; Garcia, Rodrigo Garófallo; de Kássia Silva dos Santos, Rita

    2014-01-01

    The study was carried out in order to verify the effects of piglets’ weight at birth on their surface temperature change (ST) after birth, and its relationship with ingestion time of colostrum. Piglets from four different sows were weighed at birth and divided into a totally randomized design with three treatments according to birth weight (PBW): T1 - less than 1.00 kg, T2 - 1.00 to 1.39 kg, and T3 - higher than or equal to 1.40 kg. The time spent for the first colostrum ingestion was recorded (TFS). Images of piglets’ surface by thermal imaging camera were recorded at birth (STB) and 15, 30, 45, 60, and 120 min after birth. The air temperature and relative humidity were recorded every 30 min and the indexes of temperature and humidity (THI) were calculated. A ST drop after 15 min from birth was observed, increasing again after sixty minutes. Positive correlations were found between the PBW and the ST at 30 and 45 min after birth. The PBW was negatively correlated with the TFS. The THI showed high negative correlations (−0.824 and −0.815) with STB and after 15 min from birth. The piglet’s surface temperature at birth was positively correlated with temperature thereof to 15 min, influencing therefore the temperatures in the interval of 45 to 120 min. The birth weight contributes significantly to postnatal hypothermia and consequently to the time it takes for piglets ingest colostrum, requiring special attention to those of low birth weight. PMID:25049971

  1. Piglets' surface temperature change at different weights at birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldara, Fabiana Ribeiro; Dos Santos, Luan Sousa; Machado, Sivanilza Teixeira; Moi, Marta; de Alencar Nääs, Irenilza; Foppa, Luciana; Garcia, Rodrigo Garófallo; de Kássia Silva Dos Santos, Rita

    2014-03-01

    The study was carried out in order to verify the effects of piglets' weight at birth on their surface temperature change (ST) after birth, and its relationship with ingestion time of colostrum. Piglets from four different sows were weighed at birth and divided into a totally randomized design with three treatments according to birth weight (PBW): T1 - less than 1.00 kg, T2 - 1.00 to 1.39 kg, and T3 - higher than or equal to 1.40 kg. The time spent for the first colostrum ingestion was recorded (TFS). Images of piglets' surface by thermal imaging camera were recorded at birth (STB) and 15, 30, 45, 60, and 120 min after birth. The air temperature and relative humidity were recorded every 30 min and the indexes of temperature and humidity (THI) were calculated. A ST drop after 15 min from birth was observed, increasing again after sixty minutes. Positive correlations were found between the PBW and the ST at 30 and 45 min after birth. The PBW was negatively correlated with the TFS. The THI showed high negative correlations (-0.824 and -0.815) with STB and after 15 min from birth. The piglet's surface temperature at birth was positively correlated with temperature thereof to 15 min, influencing therefore the temperatures in the interval of 45 to 120 min. The birth weight contributes significantly to postnatal hypothermia and consequently to the time it takes for piglets ingest colostrum, requiring special attention to those of low birth weight.

  2. Piglets’ Surface Temperature Change at Different Weights at Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiana Ribeiro Caldara

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out in order to verify the effects of piglets’ weight at birth on their surface temperature change (ST after birth, and its relationship with ingestion time of colostrum. Piglets from four different sows were weighed at birth and divided into a totally randomized design with three treatments according to birth weight (PBW: T1 - less than 1.00 kg, T2 - 1.00 to 1.39 kg, and T3 - higher than or equal to 1.40 kg. The time spent for the first colostrum ingestion was recorded (TFS. Images of piglets’ surface by thermal imaging camera were recorded at birth (STB and 15, 30, 45, 60, and 120 min after birth. The air temperature and relative humidity were recorded every 30 min and the indexes of temperature and humidity (THI were calculated. A ST drop after 15 min from birth was observed, increasing again after sixty minutes. Positive correlations were found between the PBW and the ST at 30 and 45 min after birth. The PBW was negatively correlated with the TFS. The THI showed high negative correlations (−0.824 and −0.815 with STB and after 15 min from birth. The piglet’s surface temperature at birth was positively correlated with temperature thereof to 15 min, influencing therefore the temperatures in the interval of 45 to 120 min. The birth weight contributes significantly to postnatal hypothermia and consequently to the time it takes for piglets ingest colostrum, requiring special attention to those of low birth weight.

  3. changes in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    classified as hotspots to climate change – such as northwest. Nigeria. This study ... poor water supply, sanitation, and overcrowding. Flooding caused ... breakage or contaminations of drinking water with severe impacts to population health.

  4. Weight gain, physical activity and dietary changes during the seven ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-06-06

    Jun 6, 2011 ... Keywords: Malawi, overweight, obesity, university, weight gain. Weight gain, physical ... The authors sought to assess weight gain, physical activity and ..... 47.1% of children under the age of five years (40.7% in urban, and.

  5. Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

    2011-01-01

    This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

  6. Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

    2011-01-01

    This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

  7. 'Resuscitation' of extremely preterm and/or low-birth-weight infants - time to 'call it'?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Colm P F

    2008-01-01

    Since ancient times, various methods have been used to revive apparently stillborn infants; many were of dubious efficacy and had the potential to cause harm. Based largely on studies of acutely asphyxiated term animal models, clinical assessment and positive pressure ventilation have become the cornerstones of neonatal resuscitation over the last 40 years. Over the last 25 years, care of extremely preterm infants in the delivery room has evolved from a policy of indifference to one of increasingly aggressive support. The survival of these infants has improved considerably in recent years; this has not, however, necessarily been due to more aggressive resuscitation. Urban myths have evolved that all extremely preterm infants died before they were intubated, and that all such infants need to immediately intubated or they will quickly die. This has never been true. Clinical assessment of infants at birth is subjective. Also, many techniques used to support preterm infants at birth have not been well studied and there is evidence that they may be harmful. It may thus be argued that many of our well-intentioned resuscitation interventions are of dubious efficacy and have the potential to cause harm. 'Resuscitation' is an emotive term which means 'restoration of life'. Death, thankfully, is a rare presentation in the delivery room. Therefore, concerning neonatal 'resuscitation', it is time to 'call it' something else. This will allow us to dispassionately distinguish preterm infants who are dead, or nearly dead, from those who are merely at high risk of parenchymal lung disease. We may then be able to refine our interventions and determine what methods of support benefit these infants most.

  8. Oropharyngeal administration of mother's milk to prevent necrotizing enterocolitis in extremely low-birth-weight infants: theoretical perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Nancy A; Caplan, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    The oropharyngeal administration of mother's milk-placing drops of milk onto the infant's oral mucosa-may serve as a preventative strategy against necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) for extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW: birth weight milk to ELBW infants may serve to expose the infant's oropharynx to protective (immune and trophic) biofactors (also present in amniotic fluid) and may protect the infant against NEC. Emerging evidence suggests that this intervention may have many benefits for extremely premature infants including protection against bacteremia, NEC, and ventilator-associated pneumonia, an earlier attainment of full enteral feeds, enhanced maturation of oral feeding skills, improved growth, and enhanced breast-feeding outcomes. While more research is needed to definitively establish safety and efficacy of this intervention, this article will examine biological plausibility and will describe the theoretical mechanisms of protection against NEC for ELBW infants who receive this intervention. Nurses play a key role in advancing the science and practice of this intervention. Future directions for research and implications for nursing practice will also be presented.

  9. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juan MORENO; Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history.

  10. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  11. Opto-mechanisms design of extreme-ultraviolet camera onboard Chang E lunar lander.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhaohui; Chen, Bo; Song, Kefei; Wang, Xiaodong; Liu, Shijie; Yang, Liang; Hu, Qinglong; Qiao, Ke; Zhang, Liping; Wu, Guodong; Yu, Ping

    2014-06-30

    The extreme-ultraviolet camera mounted on the Lander of China Chang-E lunar exploration project launched in 2013 is the first instrument used to imaging from the lunar surface to the whole plasmasphere around the earth. Taking into account both the lunar environment conditions and the weight and volume constraints, a single spherical mirror and a spherical microchannel plate detector make up the compact optical system. An optimized opto-mechanical design was presented using Finite Element Analysis Model, and the detail design for the important assemblies of the 2-axis platform, the primary mirror, the aperture door mechanism and MCP detector were all specially addressed for their environmental adaptability and reliability. Tests of mechanical characteristics have demonstrated that the position and pointing accuracy and its stability meets the operation requirements of 2'. Vibration results have shown that the EUVC has adequate stiffness and strength safety margin to survive in launch and the moon environments. The imaging performance with the resolution of 0.08° is measured after vibration, in agreement with the predicted performance.

  12. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kui Xu

    Full Text Available Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05. The design joint return period (RP of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  13. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  14. Azithromycin in the extremely low birth weight infant for the prevention of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anstead Michael I

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Azithromycin reduces the severity of illness in patients with inflammatory lung disease such as cystic fibrosis and diffuse panbronchiolitis. Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD is a pulmonary disorder which causes significant morbidity and mortality in premature infants. BPD is pathologically characterized by inflammation, fibrosis and impaired alveolar development. The purpose of this study was to obtain pilot data on the effectiveness and safety of prophylactic azithromycin in reducing the incidence and severity of BPD in an extremely low birth weight (≤ 1000 grams population. Methods Infants ≤ 1000 g birth weight admitted to the University of Kentucky Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (level III, regional referral center from 9/1/02-6/30/03 were eligible for this pilot study. The pilot study was double-blinded, randomized, and placebo-controlled. Infants were randomized to treatment or placebo within 12 hours of beginning mechanical ventilation (IMV and within 72 hours of birth. The treatment group received azithromycin 10 mg/kg/day for 7 days followed by 5 mg/kg/day for the duration of the study. Azithromycin or placebo was continued until the infant no longer required IMV or supplemental oxygen, to a maximum of 6 weeks. Primary endpoints were incidence of BPD as defined by oxygen requirement at 36 weeks gestation, post-natal steroid use, days of IMV, and mortality. Data was analyzed by intention to treat using Chi-square and ANOVA. Results A total of 43 extremely premature infants were enrolled in this pilot study. Mean gestational age and birth weight were similar between groups. Mortality, incidence of BPD, days of IMV, and other morbidities were not significantly different between groups. Post-natal steroid use was significantly less in the treatment group [31% (6/19] vs. placebo group [62% (10/16] (p = 0.05. Duration of mechanical ventilation was significantly less in treatment survivors, with a median of 13 days (1–47

  15. Macroscopic birefringence in liquid crystals from novel cyanobacterial polysaccharide with an extremely high molecular weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima-Kaneko, Maiko; Hayasaka-Kaneko, Daisaku; Miyazato, Shinji; Kaneko, Tatsuo

    2007-05-01

    We report an efficient method for extraction of anionic polysaccharides (PS) from cyanobacteria, Aphanothece sacrum; we used a hot alkaline solution (0.01 N NaOH) as an elution solvent in the first step of the extraction and isopropanol as a precipitation solvent in the last step. Thin fibers of PS were obtained at a high yield (50-80 % to the weight of the raw cyanobacterial sample). The spectroscopy and elemental analyses indicated the PS contains fucose, uronic acids (14.2 % by a carbazole-sulfuric acid method), a sugar unit containing amides. The solution of PS with a concentration of 1 wt% showed a very high viscosity (80 000cps) implying a high molecular weight, and a strong macroscopic birefringence with a texture typical of nematic liquid crystals was confirmed by crossed-polarizing microscopy (more than 0.5 wt%). The PS from A. sacrum may form a special structure rigid-rod enough to show LC phase and macroscopic birefringence.

  16. Interaction Between Orexin-A and Sleep Quality in Females in Extreme Weight Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauchelli, Sarah; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana; Fernández-García, Jose C; Garrido-Sánchez, Lourdes; Tinahones, Francisco J; Casanueva, Felipe F; Baños, Rosa M; Botella, Cristina; Crujeiras, Ana B; de la Torre, Rafael; Fernández-Real, Jose M; Frühbeck, Gema; Granero, Roser; Ortega, Francisco J; Rodríguez, Amaia; Zipfel, Stephan; Giel, Katrin E; Menchón, Jose M; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando

    2016-11-01

    The current study examined the relationship between plasma orexin-A and sleep in obesity. Concentrations of orexin-A and sleep were evaluated in 26 obese, 40 morbid obese and 32 healthy-weight participants. The sleep monitor Actiwatch AW7 and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index were used to evaluate sleep. The Symptom Checklist-90-Revised was administered to assess symptoms of psychopathology. A higher weight status was associated with elevated orexin-A levels (p = .050), greater depression, anxiety and somatization symptoms (all: p < .001), and impoverished self-reported sleep quality (p < .001). A quadratic trend was found in objective sleep time, being longest in the obese group (p = .031). Structural equation modelling showed plasma orexin-A to be related to poor total sleep quality, which in turn was associated with elevated body mass index. Our data confirm an interaction between elevated plasma orexin-A concentrations and poor sleep that contributes to fluctuations in body mass index. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  17. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...

  18. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  19. Weight change in a commercial web-based weight loss program and its association with website use: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neve, Melinda; Morgan, Philip J; Collins, Clare E

    2011-10-12

    There is a paucity of information in the scientific literature on the effectiveness of commercial weight loss programs, including Web-based programs. The potential of Web-based weight loss programs has been acknowledged, but their ability to achieve significant weight loss has not been proven. The objectives were to evaluate the weight change achieved within a large cohort of individuals enrolled in a commercial Web-based weight loss program for 12 or 52 weeks and to describe participants' program use in relation to weight change. Participants enrolled in an Australian commercial Web-based weight loss program from August 15, 2007, through May 31, 2008. Self-reported weekly weight records were used to determine weight change after 12- and 52-week subscriptions. The primary analysis estimated weight change using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for all participants who subscribed for 12 weeks and also for those who subscribed for 52 weeks. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using the last observation carried forward (LOCF) method. Website use (ie, the number of days participants logged on, made food or exercise entries to the Web-based diary, or posted to the discussion forum) was described from program enrollment to 12 and 52 weeks, and differences in website use by percentage weight change category were tested using Kruskal-Wallis test for equality of populations. Participants (n = 9599) had a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 35.7 (9.5) years and were predominantly female (86% or 8279/9599) and obese (61% or 5866/9599). Results from the primary GLMM analysis including all enrollees found the mean percentage weight change was -6.2% among 12-week subscribers (n = 6943) and -6.9% among 52-week subscribers (n = 2656). Sensitivity analysis using LOCF revealed an average weight change of -3.0% and -3.5% after 12 and 52 weeks respectively. The use of all website features increased significantly (P Web-based weight loss program is likely to be in the range of

  20. Changes of the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes on Homogenized Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAKATOS, Mónika

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate indices to detect changes have been defined in several international projects onclimate change. Climate index calculations require at least daily resolution of time series withoutinhomogeneities, such as transfer of stations, changes in observation practice. In many cases thecharacteristics of the estimated linear trends, calculated from the original and from the homogenizedtime series are significantly different. The ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset indicesand some other special temperature and precipitation indices of own development were applied to theClimate Database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Long term daily maximum, minimum anddaily mean temperature data series and daily precipitation sums were examined. The climate indexcalculation processes were tested on original observations and on homogenized daily data fortemperature; in the case of precipitation a complementation process was performed to fill in the gapsof missing data. Experiences of comparing the climate index calculation results, based on original andcomplemented-homogenized data, are reported in this paper. We present the preliminary result ofclimate index calculations also on gridded (interpolated daily data.

  1. Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YanWei Zhang; QuanSheng Ge; FengQing Jiang; JingYun Zheng; WenShou Wei

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies), was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI (Climate Change Detection and Indices). The results show that: (1) In Present Scenario (1961–1900), PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. (2) The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation's increase in frequency and intensity during 1961–2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer pre-cipitation increased prominently in a year. (3) PRECIS's simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.

  2. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    stream_size 143507 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt stream_source_info Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt Content.... This was compounded by the rate of local mean sea-level rise relative to the land level of the Mississippi Delta of several times the global average, as occurs naturally in all major deltas, together with anthropogenic changes to the delta wetlands. On much longer...

  3. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  4. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-04-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  5. Lack of Melanopsin Is Associated with Extreme Weight Loss in Mice upon Dietary Challenge.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didem Göz Aytürk

    Full Text Available Metabolic disorders have been established as major risk factors for ocular complications and poor vision. However, little is known about the inverse possibility that ocular disease may cause metabolic dysfunction. To test this hypothesis, we assessed the metabolic consequences of a robust dietary challenge in several mouse models suffering from retinal mutations. To this end, mice null for melanopsin (Opn4-/-, the photopigment of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs, were subjected to five weeks of a ketogenic diet. These mice lost significantly more weight than wild-type controls or mice lacking rod and cone photoreceptors (Pde6brd1/rd1. Although ipRGCs are critical for proper circadian entrainment, and circadian misalignment has been implicated in metabolic pathology, we observed no differences in entrainment between Opn4-/- and control mice. Additionally, we observed no differences in any tested metabolic parameter between these mouse strains. Further studies are required to establish the mechanism giving rise to this dramatic phenotype observed in melanopsin-null mice. We conclude that the causality between ocular disease and metabolic disorders merits further investigation due to the popularity of diets that rely on the induction of a ketogenic state. Our study is a first step toward understanding retinal pathology as a potential cause of metabolic dysfunction.

  6. The effects of a 12-week program of static upper extremity weight bearing exercises on weight bearing in children with hemiplegic type of cerebral palsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jayaraman

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The  major  objective  of  this  study  was  to  quantify  the  effects  of a  12-week  program  of  weight  bearing  exercises  on  weight  borne  through  the hand and grip pressures in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy. This study also sought to monitor the change in spasticity immediately following weight-bearing  exercises.  A  quasi-experimental,  one  group  pre-test,  post-test  study  was used. Eleven children with hemiplegic type of cerebral palsy from a special school in KwaZulu Natal participated after fully informed written consent. The intervention consisted of a 12-week program of weight bearing. The Tekscan Grip system was used to quantify weight borne through the hand during extended arm prone and quadruped positions and whilst holding a pencil and a tumbler. The modified Ashworth grading of spasticity was used to monitor spasticity. The data was analysed using the random effects GLS model Wald Chi Square test. Significant increases in contact pressure in extended arms prone (p=0,012 and quadruped (p=0,002 and when holding a pencil (p=0,045 was noted post-test compared to pre-test. Significant increases in contact area of the hand was also noted in prone (p=0,000, quadruped (p=0, 03 at assessment 7 and when holding a pencil (p=0,035.  A significant decrease in spasticity during elbow extension (p=0,004, and wrist flexion (p=0,026 and extension (p=0,004 was noted. An overall significant effect of static weight bearing exercises on weight borne through the hands, grip strength and spasticity justifies the use of static weight-bearing in therapy.

  7. Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao

    2015-08-01

    The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  9. Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

    2012-01-01

    Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

  10. Risk Factors for Adopting Extreme Weight-Control Behaviors among Public School Adolescents in Salvador, Brazil: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Santana, Mônica Leila Portela; Assis, Ana Marlúcia Oliveira; Silva, Rita de Cássia Ribeiro; Raich, Rosa María; Machado, Maria Ester Pereira da Conceição; Pinto, Elizabete de Jesus; de Moraes, Lia Terezinha Lana Pimenta; Ribeiro, Hugo da Costa

    2016-01-01

    This study identifies the risk factors for extreme weight-control behaviors among adolescents in public school in Salvador, northeastern Brazil. A case-control study nested to a cross-sectional study, including 252 adolescents of both sexes, age between 11 to 17 years, with 84 cases and 168 age-matched controls was conducted. The variable outcome is represented by extreme weight-control behaviors, integrated by following the variables: self-induced vomiting and the use of laxatives, diuretics, or diet pills. Covariables included body image dissatisfaction, dieting, prolonged fasting, and self-perception of body weight. The study also investigated the demographic and anthropometric variables and economic conditions of the students' families. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for the adoption of extreme weight-control behaviors among adolescents. Among the adolescents investigated, the conditional logistic regression explained 22% the occurrence of extreme weight-control behaviors and showed that these behaviors were positively associated to overweight (odds ratio [OR] = 3.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-9.17), body image dissatisfaction (OR = 3.87; 95% CI, 1.75-8.54), and the adoption of a restrictive diet (OR = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.16-6.91). The results of this study suggest that among adolescents, overweight, body image dissatisfaction, and restrictive diet are important risk factors to adoption of extreme weight-control behaviors.

  11. Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita

    2010-01-12

    Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models.

  12. Is there any role for terlipressin in the extremely low birth weight infant with refractory septic shock?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Bissolo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terlipressin, a synthetic long-acting analogue of vasopressin, has been investigated as a second line vasopressor in adults and children with refractory septic shock, i.e. not responding to fluid resuscitation and high-dose catecholamine administration. Little experience is available about the safety and efficacy of terlipressin in term and preterm newborns. We report the case of an extremely low birth weight infant with severe septic shock, unresponsive to fluids, noradrenalin and hydrocortisone, in whom terlipressin was attempted as a rescue drug. Despite three doses of terlipressin, administered 6-hourly, the patient remained profoundly hypotensive and eventually died. Further studies are required before any recommendation on the use of terlipressin in term or preterm newborns with septic shock can be made.

  13. Hybrid Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Variational Mode Decomposition and a Weighted Regularized Extreme Learning Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nantian Huang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate wind speed forecasting is a fundamental element of wind power prediction. Thus, a new hybrid wind speed forecasting model, using variational mode decomposition (VMD, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF, and weighted regularized extreme learning machine (WRELM, is proposed to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting. First, the historic wind speed time series is decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Second, the partial correlation of each IMF sequence is analyzed using PACF to select the optimal subfeature set for particular predictors of each IMF. Then, the predictors of each IMF are constructed in order to enhance its strength using WRELM. Finally, wind speed is obtained by adding up all the predictors. The experiment, using real wind speed data, verified the effectiveness and advancement of the new approach.

  14. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  15. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  16. Selective deficit in spatial location memory in extremely low birth weight children at age six: the PETIT study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Ida Sue; Brandt, Jason; Ahronovich, Margot D; Baker, Robin; Erickson, Kristine; Litman, Fern R

    2012-01-01

    Spatial location memory has rarely been assessed in young children due to a scarcity of developmentally appropriate tests. This study sought to compare nonverbal learning and recall in children born extremely low birth weight (ELBW; children at early school age using a recently developed and adapted test. We administered a modification of the Hopkins Board to 210 children at age six; 84 born ELBW (35 born children had worse general cognition, item naming, delayed item recall, delayed location recall, and percent retention than term-born children. Delayed item recall and percent retention performances of ELBW children remained worse after correction for general cognition. ELBW groups (children in naming and delayed item recall with chronological age as covariate. Those born before 26 GW, but not 26-33 GW, performed worse than term-born children in delayed location recall and percent retention. Differences remained significant after controlling for gender, maternal education, and delivery type. All three groups' performance declined from final learning trial to delayed location recall, with a decline greater for less than 26 GW than term-born children. Extreme prematurity (spatial location memory deficit. The modified Hopkins Board discriminated high-risk preterm and term-born children at early school age and appears to be a useful test to measure this rarely studied cognitive capacity.

  17. Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

    2002-07-15

    Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

  18. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Guhathakurta; O P Sreejith; P A Menon

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  19. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  20. Body weight, not insulin sensitivity or secretion, may predict spontaneous weight changes in nondiabetic and prediabetic subjects: the RISC study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebelos, Eleni; Muscelli, Elza; Natali, Andrea; Balkau, Beverley; Mingrone, Geltrude; Piatti, Piermarco; Konrad, Thomas; Mari, Andrea; Ferrannini, Ele

    2011-07-01

    Previous studies have found that high insulin sensitivity predicts weight gain; this association has not been confirmed. Our aim was to systematically analyze metabolic predictors of spontaneous weight changes. In 561 women and 467 men from the Relationship Between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Disease (RISC) cohort (mean age 44 years, BMI range 19-44 kg/m(2), 9% impaired glucose tolerance) followed up for 3 years, we measured insulin sensitivity (by a euglycemic clamp) and β-cell function (by modeling of the C-peptide response to oral glucose and by acute insulin response to intravenous glucose). Insulin sensitivity was similar in weight gainers (top 20% of the distribution of BMI changes), weight losers (bottom 20%), and weight stable subjects across quartiles of baseline BMI. By multiple logistic or linear regression analyses controlling for center, age, sex, and baseline BMI, neither insulin sensitivity nor any β-cell function parameter showed an independent association with weight gain; this was true in normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose tolerance, and whether subjects progressed to dysglycemia or not. Baseline BMI was significantly higher in gainers (26.1 ± 4.1 kg/m(2)) and losers (26.6 ± 3.7 kg/m(2)) than in weight stable subjects (24.8 ± 3.8 kg/m(2), Pweight) was a positive, independent predictor of both weight gain and weight loss (odds ratio 1.48 [95% CI 1.12-1.97]) in men and (1.67 [1.28-2.12]) in women. In men only, better insulin sensitivity was an additional independent predictor of weight loss. Neither insulin sensitivity nor insulin secretion predicts spontaneous weight gain. Individuals who have attained a higher weight are prone to either gaining or losing weight regardless of their glucose tolerance. © 2011 by the American Diabetes Association.

  1. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated......Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...

  2. Factors Associated With Weight Change in Online Weight Management Communities: A Case Study in the LoseIt Reddit Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappa, Gisele Lobo; Cunha, Tiago Oliveira; Bicalho, Paulo Viana; Ribeiro, Antonio; Couto Silva, Ana Paula; Meira, Wagner; Beleigoli, Alline Maria Rezende

    2017-01-16

    Recent research has shown that of the 72% of American Internet users who have looked for health information online, 22% have searched for help to lose or control weight. This demand for information has given rise to many online weight management communities, where users support one another throughout their weight loss process. Whether and how user engagement in online communities relates to weight change is not totally understood. We investigated the activity behavior and analyze the semantic content of the messages of active users in LoseIt (r/loseit), a weight management community of the online social network Reddit. We then explored whether these features are associated with weight loss in this online social network. A data collection tool was used to collect English posts, comments, and other public metadata of active users (ie, users with at least one post or comment) on LoseIt from August 2010 to November 2014. Analyses of frequency and intensity of user interaction in the community were performed together with a semantic analysis of the messages, done by a latent Dirichlet allocation method. The association between weight loss and online user activity patterns, the semantics of the messages, and real-world variables was found by a linear regression model using 30-day weight change as the dependent variable. We collected posts and comments of 107,886 unique users. Among these, 101,003 (93.62%) wrote at least one comment and 38,981 (36.13%) wrote at least one post. Median percentage of days online was 3.81 (IQR 9.51). The 10 most-discussed semantic topics on posts were related to healthy food, clothing, calorie counting, workouts, looks, habits, support, and unhealthy food. In the subset of 754 users who had gender, age, and 30-day weight change data available, women were predominant and 92.9% (701/754) lost weight. Female gender, body mass index (BMI) at baseline, high levels of online activity, the number of upvotes received per post, and topics discussed

  3. Factors Associated With Weight Change in Online Weight Management Communities: A Case Study in the LoseIt Reddit Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Antonio; Couto Silva, Ana Paula; Meira Jr, Wagner

    2017-01-01

    Background Recent research has shown that of the 72% of American Internet users who have looked for health information online, 22% have searched for help to lose or control weight. This demand for information has given rise to many online weight management communities, where users support one another throughout their weight loss process. Whether and how user engagement in online communities relates to weight change is not totally understood. Objective We investigated the activity behavior and analyze the semantic content of the messages of active users in LoseIt (r/loseit), a weight management community of the online social network Reddit. We then explored whether these features are associated with weight loss in this online social network. Methods A data collection tool was used to collect English posts, comments, and other public metadata of active users (ie, users with at least one post or comment) on LoseIt from August 2010 to November 2014. Analyses of frequency and intensity of user interaction in the community were performed together with a semantic analysis of the messages, done by a latent Dirichlet allocation method. The association between weight loss and online user activity patterns, the semantics of the messages, and real-world variables was found by a linear regression model using 30-day weight change as the dependent variable. Results We collected posts and comments of 107,886 unique users. Among these, 101,003 (93.62%) wrote at least one comment and 38,981 (36.13%) wrote at least one post. Median percentage of days online was 3.81 (IQR 9.51). The 10 most-discussed semantic topics on posts were related to healthy food, clothing, calorie counting, workouts, looks, habits, support, and unhealthy food. In the subset of 754 users who had gender, age, and 30-day weight change data available, women were predominant and 92.9% (701/754) lost weight. Female gender, body mass index (BMI) at baseline, high levels of online activity, the number of upvotes

  4. Allowable CO2 emissions based on projected changes in regional extremes and related impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus; Pitman, Andy; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted 2°C and 1.5° limits, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions. Translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because they resonate better with national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. Linking cumulative CO2 emission targets to regional consequences, such as changing climate extremes, would be of particular benefit for political decision making, both in the context of climate negotiations and adaptation.

  5. Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics....... This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management....

  6. High incidence of rickets in extremely low birth weight infants with severe parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis and bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soon Min; Namgung, Ran; Park, Min Soo; Eun, Ho Sun; Park, Kook In; Lee, Chul

    2012-12-01

    Risk factors for rickets of prematurity have not been re-examined since introduction of high mineral formula, particularly in ELBW infants. We analyzed the incidence and the risk factors of rickets in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. As a retrospective case-control study from 2004 to 2008, risk factors were analyzed in 24 patients with rickets versus 31 patients without. The frequency of rickets in ELBW infants was 24/55 (44%). Infants with rickets were diagnosed at 48.2 ± 16.1 days of age, and improved by 85.3 ± 25.3 days. By radiologic evaluation, 29% were grade 1 rickets, 58% grade 2 and 13% grade 3. In univariate analysis, infants with rickets had significantly higher incidence of patent ductus arteriosus, parenteral nutrition associated cholestasis (PNAC), severe PNAC and moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). In multiple regression analysis, after adjustment for gestation and birth weight, rickets significantly correlated with severe PNAC and with moderate/severe BPD. Serum peak alkaline phosphatase levels were significantly elevated in rickets (P rickets of prematurity remains high and the incidence of severe PNAC and moderate/severe BPD was significantly increased 18 and 3 times, respectively.

  7. Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, H.; Lawrence, D.; Lang, M.; Martinkova, M.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a review of trend analysis of extreme precipitation and hydrological floods in Europe based on observations and future climate projections. The review summaries methods and methodologies applied and key findings from a large number of studies. Reported analyses of observed extreme precipitation and flood records show that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant trends at large-scale regional or national level of extreme streamflow. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows, likely caused by increasing temperature. The review of likely future changes based on climate projections indicates a general increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trends. Hydrological projections of peak flows show large impacts in many areas with both positive and negative changes. A general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are projected for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows, which is consistent with the observed trends. Finally, existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation are reviewed. The review shows that only few countries have developed guidelines that incorporate a consideration of climate change impacts.

  8. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  9. Alternative growth functions for predicting body, carcass, and breast weight in ducks: Lomolino equation and extreme value function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faridi, A; Murawska, D; Golian, A; Mottaghitalab, M; Gitoee, A; Lopez, S; France, J

    2014-04-01

    In this study, 2 alternative growth functions, the Lomolino and the extreme value function (EVF), are introduced and their ability to predict body, carcass, and breast weight in ducks evaluated. A comparative study was carried out of these equations with standard growth functions: Gompertz, exponential, Richards, and generalized Michaelis-Menten. Goodness of fit of the functions was evaluated using R(2), mean square error, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion, whereas bias factor, accuracy factor, Durbin-Watson statistic, and number of runs of sign were the criteria used for analysis of residuals. Results showed that predictive performance of all functions was acceptable, though the Richards and exponential equations failed to converge in a few cases for both male and female ducks. Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the Richards, Gompertz, and EVF were the best equations whereas the worst fits to the data were obtained with the exponential. Analysis of residuals indicated that, for the different traits investigated, the least biased and the most accurate equations were the Gompertz, EVF, Richards, and generalized Michaelis-Menten, whereas the exponential was the most biased and least accurate. Based on the Durbin-Watson statistic, all models generally behaved well and only the exponential showed evidence of autocorrelation for all 3 traits investigated. Results showed that with all functions, estimated final weights of males were higher than females for the body, carcass, and breast weight profiles. The alternative functions introduced here have desirable advantages including flexibility and a low number of parameters. However, because this is probably the first study to apply these functions to predict growth patterns in poultry or other animals, further analysis of these new models is suggested.

  10. Changes in body composition and fat distribution in response to weight loss and weight regain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooy, van der K.

    1993-01-01

    This thesis describes the effects of weight loss and subsequent weight regain on body composition, fat distribution and resting energy expenditure in moderately obese men and moderately obese premenopausal women. Participants were subjected to a controlled 4.2 MJ/day energy deficit diet for

  11. Physical Activity, Obesity, Weight Change and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxley, Rachel R.; Misialek, Jeffrey R.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Loehr, Laura R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chen, Lin Y.; Alonso, Alvaro

    2014-01-01

    Background Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Methods and Results Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14,219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987–2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate the associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. BMI and WC were positively associated with AF, as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal BMI, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129% and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Conclusions Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight. PMID:24907285

  12. Weight change in control group participants in behavioural weight loss interventions: a systematic review and meta-regression study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waters Lauren

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Unanticipated control group improvements have been observed in intervention trials targeting various health behaviours. This phenomenon has not been studied in the context of behavioural weight loss intervention trials. The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-regression of behavioural weight loss interventions to quantify control group weight change, and relate the size of this effect to specific trial and sample characteristics. Methods Database searches identified reports of intervention trials meeting the inclusion criteria. Data on control group weight change and possible explanatory factors were abstracted and analysed descriptively and quantitatively. Results 85 trials were reviewed and 72 were included in the meta-regression. While there was no change in control group weight, control groups receiving usual care lost 1 kg more than control groups that received no intervention, beyond measurement. Conclusions There are several possible explanations why control group changes occur in intervention trials targeting other behaviours, but not for weight loss. Control group participation may prevent weight gain, although more research is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

  13. Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Forkel, Matthias; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Flach, Milan; Heimann, Martin; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2017-07-01

    Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985-2010) in six European regions. Our aims are to (1) attribute changes in the intensity and frequency of simulated ecosystem productivity extremes (EPEs) to recent changes in climate extremes, CO2 concentration, and land use, and to (2) assess the effect of timing and seasonal interaction on the intensity of EPEs. Evaluating the ensemble simulations reveals that (1) recent trends in EPEs are seasonally contrasting: spring EPEs show consistent trends towards increased carbon uptake, while trends in summer EPEs are predominantly negative in net ecosystem productivity (i.e. higher net carbon release under drought and heat in summer) and close-to-neutral in gross productivity. While changes in climate and its extremes (mainly warming) and changes in CO2 increase spring productivity, changes in climate extremes decrease summer productivity neutralizing positive effects of CO2. Furthermore, we find that (2) drought or heat wave induced carbon losses in summer (i.e. negative EPEs) can be partly compensated by a higher uptake in the preceding spring in temperate regions. Conversely, however, carry-over effects from spring to summer that arise from depleted soil moisture exacerbate the carbon losses caused by climate extremes in summer, and are thus undoing spring compensatory effects. While the spring-compensation effect is increasing over time, the carry-over effect shows no trend between 1985-2010. The ensemble ecosystem model simulations provide a process-based interpretation and generalization for spring-summer interacting carbon cycle effects

  14. Impacts of Climate Change on the Climate Extremes of the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, M. Tufan; Collu, Kamil; Deler, F. Busra; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  15. Crescimento de prematuros de extremo baixo peso nos primeiros dois anos de vida Growth of extremely low birth weight infants during the first two years of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Maria S. S. Rugolo

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar o padrão de crescimento de prematuros de extremo baixo peso (EBP até 24 meses de idade corrigida, a influência da displasia broncopulmonar (DBP e os fatores de risco para falha de crescimento. MÉTODOS: Coorte de prematuros OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the growth pattern of extremely low birth weight infants(ELBW from birth to 24 months of adjusted gestational age (AA, the influence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD and risk factors associated to growth failure. METHODS: This cohort study included all singleton inborn infants with birthweight <1,000g, admitted in the follow-up clinic of a level III Perinatal Center. Weight, length and head circumference were measured at birth, 40 weeks, and 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 months AA, and Z-scores were calculated. Out of the 82 survivors, 70 were studied and classified in two groups: BPD (n=41 and no-BPD (n=29. Statistical analysis included t-test or Mann-Withney, chi-square or Fisher Exact test, and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: In both groups, weight z-score decreased significantly between birth and 40 weeks AA. A peak incremental change in weight, length and head circumference z-scores occurred between 40 weeks and three months. Z-scores for the no-BPD group were close to the expected values by the age of six months and remained at these levels at 24 months AA. Children with BPD had lower z-scores for weight and head circumference in the first year of life, but no difference was found between BPD and no-BPD children in the second year of life. Regression analysis showed that catch-down in weight z-score at 40 weeks was a risk factor for failure to thrive. CONCLUSIONS: ELBW infants experienced early catch-up growth during the first two years of life. ELBW with BPD had poor weight gain. Post-natal growth restriction predicts failure to thrive in infancy.

  16. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  17. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  18. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  19. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matthews

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

  20. Future changes in atmospheric circulation types and related precipitation extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homann, Markus; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical evaluation of the relationships between atmospheric circulation types and areal precipitation events took place in the context of an international project called WETRAX (Weather patterns, storm tracks and related precipitation extremes). The aim of the project was to estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions. For parts of southern Central Europe, a gridded daily precipitation set with 6km horizontal resolution has been generated for the period 1951-2006 by the Austrian Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG). To determine regions with similar precipitation variability, a S-mode principal component analysis has been applied. Extreme precipitation events are defined by the 95% percentile, based on regional arithmetic means of daily precipitation. Large-scale atmospheric circulation types have been derived by different statistical methods and variables using the COST733 classification software and gridded daily NCEP1 reanalysis data. To evaluate the performance of a particular circulation type classification with respect to regional precipitation extremes, multiple regression models have been derived between the circulation type frequencies as predictor variables and monthly frequencies of extreme precipitation as well as monthly rainfall amounts from these events. To estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions, multiple regression models are applied to different projected GCM predictor data. Thus, future changes in circulation type occurrence frequencies are transferred into assessments of future changes in precipitation extremes on a regional scale.

  1. Land cover change drives climate extremes and aridity in non-Amazonian South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, J.; Salazar, A.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Syktus, J.; Katzfey, J.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing evidence is showing the relevance of land cover change on the regional mean climate. However, the mechanisms that explain these interactions remain a challenge in land - atmosphere interactions science. This challenge is particularly significant in understanding the role of vegetation change on climate extremes and aridity, which has been barely addressed by the literature. In this paper we focus on this gap by investigating the effects of land use and land cover change on selected climate extremes indices and aridity in non-Amazonian South America over an area of about 3 million km2. We run a 3 ensemble climate model nudged with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and stretched to 25 km resolution for present (year 2005) land cover relative to realistic historic vegetation distribution. The most important results of this experiment are that the degree of change in vegetation structure determines whether extreme daytime temperatures will increase or decrease, particularly during the dry season. This is because a large change in surface roughness promotes increased wind speeds and heat advection, whereas a small change in surface roughness does not increase wind and can increase heat build-up in the atmosphere since the sensible heat flux also increases. We also put these results in a wider context of land surface - atmospheric feedbacks by looking at the corresponding change in aridity (precipitation / potential evapotranspiration). This shows the processes that drive the changes in temperature extremes also determine whether significant changes in aridity occur, since all the change in aridity can be prescribed to changes in potential evaporation, or atmospheric water demand. We propose a conceptual model of the mechanisms that explain these alterations which is an advance in understanding land-atmosphere interactions and provides evidence of the main mechanisms responsible of changes in the feedbacks because of changes in natural vegetation.

  2. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  3. Weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: A meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This meta-analysis of observational cohort studies examined the association between weight change (weight loss, weight gain, and weight fluctuation) and all-cause mortality among older adults. We used PubMed (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Cochrane Library to identify prospective studies published in...

  4. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Sunyer, Maria; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-05-01

    During the past 30 years rather dramatic changes in extreme precipitation have been observed in Denmark. These changes are mainly in the frequency of extreme events, but there is also a tendency towards more severe events. Both are considered effects of anthropogenic climate change. The increase in precipitation extremes has led to inundations in most of the larger cities during the last 10 years. The flood in Copenhagen in 2011 implied the second highest damage costs measured in Denmark during the last 100 years. To establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods robust projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate are needed. Additionally, it is equally important to understand the natural variation on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate the changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall. Trends and oscillations are identified in five daily precipitation records from 1874 to present, 83 records from high-resolution rain-gauges from 1979 to present and 18 state-of-the-art climate model simulations. It is shown that the frequency of extreme events in the past has oscillated with a cycle of 25-35 years, a behavior that can in part be explained by sea level pressure differences over the Atlantic. Projections based on the historical observations suggest that precipitation extremes in the Eastern part of Denmark should have been ascending in the last two decades. However, the increase has continued longer than expected and with larger amplitude in the most recent years. This indicates a likely influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With the complex combination of general increase and natural variation several additional years of observation are needed before this hypothesis can be evaluated by statistical means. Extensive analysis of 18 different regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that anthropogenic

  5. Quantifying the consequences of changing hydroclimatic extremes on protection levels for the Rhine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules

    2017-04-01

    The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge

  6. Test of visuospatial construction: Validity evidence in extremely low birth weight and late preterm children at early school age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rider, G Nicole; Weiss, Brandi A; McDermott, Adam T; Hopp, Crista A; Baron, Ida Sue

    2016-01-01

    The Test of Visuospatial Construction (TVSC), a measure of visuoconstruction that does not rely on upper extremity motor response or written production, was administered to extremely low birth weight (ELBW), late preterm (LPT), and term participants at preschool (n = 355) and kindergarten (n = 265) ages. TVSC showed statistically significant weak-to-moderate positive correlations (age 3: r = .118-.303; age 6: r = .138-.348) with Developmental VMI, Differential Ability Scales-II Copying, Matrices, and Pattern Construction subtests, Baron-Hopkins Board Test, and the Purdue Pegboard. One-way ANOVA indicated ELBW performed worse than Term (p = .044) on visuospatial construction at age 3 with a small-to-medium effect size (d = -0.43). No other statistically significant differences were found at age 3 on the TVSC (ELBW/LPT: p = .608, d = -0.17; LPT/Term: p = .116, d = -0.31). At age 6, ELBW participants performed worse than LPT participants (p = .027) and Term participants (p = .012); LPT participants did not differ from Term participants. Small effect sizes at age 3 (ELBW < LPT, d = -0.17; ELBW < Term, d = -0.43) were notably larger at age 6 (ELBW < LPT, d = -0.42; ELBW < Term, d = -0.53). Important practical differences showing LPT participants performed below Term participants (d = -0.31) at age 3 were no longer evident at age 6 (d = -0.097). These findings provide preliminary evidence of TVSC validity supporting its use to detect neuropsychological impairment and to recommend appropriate interventions in young preterm children.

  7. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.

    2013-01-01

    A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...... drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future. © IWA Publishing 2013....

  8. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  9. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2015-01-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation are expected to be one of the most important impacts of climate change in cities. Urban floods are mainly caused by short duration extreme events. Hence, robust information on changes in extreme precipitation at high-temporal resolution is required for the design...... of climate change adaptation measures. However, the quantification of these changes is challenging and subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assesses the changes and uncertainties in extreme precipitation at hourly scale over Denmark. It explores three statistical downscaling approaches: a delta...

  10. Mortality and Morbidity of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants in the Mainland of China: A Multi-center Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui-Jia; Du, Li-Zhong; Ma, Xiao-Lu; Shi, Li-Ping; Pan, Jia-Hua; Tong, Xiao-Mei; Li, Qiu-Ping; Zhou, Jian-Guo; Yi, Bing; Liu, Ling; Chen, Yun-Bing; Wei, Qiu-Fen; Wu, Hui-Qing; Li, Mei; Liu, Cui-Qing; Gao, Xi-Rong; Xia, Shi-Wen; Li, Wen-Bin; Yan, Chao-Ying; He, Ling; Liang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Yu; Han, Shu-Ping; Lyu, Qin; Qiu, Yin-Ping; Li, Wen; Chen, Dong-Mei; Lu, Hong-Ru; Liu, Xiao-Hong; Liu, Hong; Lin, Zhen-Lang; Liu, Li; Zhu, Jia-Jun; Xiong, Hong; Yue, Shao-Jie; Zhuang, Si-Qi

    2015-01-01

    Background: With the progress of perinatal medicine and neonatal technology, more and more extremely low birth weight (ELBW) survived all over the world. This study was designed to investigate the short-term outcomes of ELBW infants during their Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) stay in the mainland of China. Methods: All infants admitted to 26 NICUs with a birth weight (BW) < l000 g were included between January l, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All the data were collected retrospectively from clinical records by a prospectively designed questionnaire. The data collected from each NICU transmitted to the main institution where the results were aggregated and analyzed. Categorical variables were performed with Pearson Chi-square test. Binary Logistic regression analysis was used to detect risk factors. Results: A total of 258 ELBW infants were admitted to 26 NICUs, of whom the mean gestational age (GA) was 28.1 ± 2.2 weeks, and the mean BW was 868 ± 97 g. The overall survival rate at discharge was 50.0%. Despite aggressive treatment 60 infants (23.3%) died and another 69 infants (26.7%) died after medical care withdrawal. Furthermore, the survival rate was significantly higher in coastal areas than inland areas (53.6% vs. 35.3%, P = 0.019). BW < 750 g and GA < 28 weeks were the largest risk factors, and being small for gestational age was a protective factor related to mortality. Respiratory distress syndrome was the most common complication. The incidence of patent ductus arteriosus, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, retinopathy of prematurity was 26.2%, 33.7%, 6.7%, 48.1%, and 41.4%, respectively. Ventilator associated pneumonia was the most common hospital acquired infection during hospitalization. Conclusions: Our study was the first survey that revealed the present status of ELBW infants in the mainland of China. The mortality and morbidity of ELBW infants remained high as compared to other developed

  11. Recent variability and trends in UK sub-daily rainfall: evidence for more rapidly changing extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley

    2017-04-01

    Recent UK floods have reinforced the need for a better understanding of how its exposure to flooding may change in the future with climate change. Short-duration intense rainfall is responsible for flash flooding, particularly in fast-responding catchments and urban areas. The new generation of very-high resolution climate models are providing better simulations of such rainfall events but an improved understanding of observed variability and trends in short-duration rainfall is also required. To date this has been confounded by the lack of high quality observations but is being addressed by the INTENSE project which is gathering global datasets of sub-daily rainfall. Methods to quality control such data have been tested to produce a high quality dataset of hourly rainfall for the UK. Here we use this dataset to examine trends and variability in seasonal UK hourly rainfall extremes and compare changes with those on daily timescales. In particular we consider whether we can more readily detect changes in hourly extremes than daily extremes in the observed record. This might be expected given that several studies have provided observational evidence of larger changes in hourly and sub-hourly extremes with temperature. We therefore assess evidence for an amplified response to warming on shorter timescales. Such studies may provide additional evidence that complements that derived from climate models.

  12. Neurodevelopmental sequelae in premature newborns with extremely low weight and with very low weight at two years of age who left the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins 2009-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Fernández Sierra

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study is to describe the neurodevelopmental sequelae in premature newborns with extremely low weight and with very low weight at two years of age who left the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins. Materials and methods: A descriptive, retrospective, cross-sectional study in a population of 190 premature newborns with extremely low weight and with very low weight born from January 2009 to June 2014 who left the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and took part in the follow-up program. The psychomotor development, sensorineural hearing loss, retinopathy of prematurity, presence of cerebral palsy and convulsive syndrome were assessed. Results: The average weight at birth was 1,180.53 ± 212.40 grams with a gestational age of 29.86 ± 2.33 weeks, and 51.58% of the newborns were male. Forty-two point six three percent (42.63% of the premature newborns with very low weight showed retardation of psychomotor development; 25.26%, retinopathy; 13.68%, sensorineural hearing loss; 3.68%, cerebral palsy; and 3.68%, convulsive syndrome. Fifty-two point two seven percent (52.27% of the premature newborns with extremely low weight showed retardation of psychomotor development; 50%, retinopathy; 15.91%, sensorineural hearing loss; and 2.27%, convulsive syndrome. Conclusions: Retardation of psychomotor development and retinopathy were the most important complications shown by premature newborns with extremely low weight and with very low weight at two years of age.

  13. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic MOC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-E. Brunnabend

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect of ocean model resolution on these SSH changes: a high-resolution (HR strongly eddying version and a low-resolution (LR version in which the effect of eddies are parameterized. The weakening of the AMOC is induced in both model versions by applying strong freshwater perturbations around Greenland. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the HR version induces much shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the LR version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.

  14. Influence of ADRB2 Gln27Glu and ADRB3 Trp64Arg polymorphisms on body weight and body composition changes after a controlled weight-loss intervention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cupeiro, Rocío; Wang, Guan; Amigo, Teresa; Gomez-Candela, Carmen; Szendrei, Barbara; Calderón, Francisco J; Benito, Pedro J; González-Lamuño, Domingo; Pitsiladis, Yannis

    2016-01-01

    ...) polymorphisms on weight loss remain controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of these polymorphisms on changes in weight and body composition during a controlled weight-loss program...

  15. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  16. Impacts of extreme precipitation and seasonal changes in precipitation on plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. B. Zeppel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological cycle is predicted to become more intense in future climates, with both larger precipitation events and longer times between events. Redistribution of precipitation may occur both within and across seasons, and the resulting wide fluctuations in soil water content may dramatically affect plants. Though these responses remain poorly understood, recent research in this emerging field suggests the effects of redistributed precipitation may differ from predictions based on previous drought studies. We review available studies on both extreme precipitation (redistribution within seasons and seasonal changes in precipitation (redistribution across seasons on grasslands and forests. Extreme precipitation differentially affected Aboveground Net Primary Productivity (ANPP, depending on whether extreme precipitation led to increased or decreased soil water content (SWC, which differed based on the current precipitation at the site. Specifically, studies to date reported that extreme precipitation decreased ANPP in mesic sites, but, conversely, increased ANPP in xeric sites, suggesting that plant available water is a key factor driving responses to extreme precipitation. Similarly, the effects of seasonal changes in precipitation on ANPP, phenology, and leaf and fruit development varied with the effect on SWC. Reductions in spring or summer generally had negative effects on plants, associated with reduced SWC, while subsequent reductions in autumn or winter had little effect on SWC or plants. Similarly, increased summer precipitation had a more dramatic impact on plants than winter increases in precipitation. The patterns of response suggest xeric biomes may respond positively to extreme precipitation, while comparatively mesic biomes may be more likely to be negatively affected. And, seasonal changes in precipitation during warm or dry seasons may have larger effects than changes during cool or wet seasons. Accordingly, responses to

  17. Development of body weight support gait training system using pneumatic Mckibben actuators -control of lower extremity orthosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Dzahir, M A; Nobutomo, T; Yamamoto, S I

    2013-01-01

    Recently, robot assisted therapy devices are increasingly used for spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation in assisting handicapped patients to regain their impaired movements. Assistive robotic systems may not be able to cure or fully compensate impairments, but it should be able to assist certain impaired functions and ease movements. In this study, the control system of lower extremity orthosis for the body weight support gait training system which implements pneumatic artificial muscle (PAM) is proposed. The hip and knee joint angles of the gait orthosis system are controlled based on the PAM coordinates information from the simulation. This information provides the contraction data for the mono- and bi-articular PAMs that are arranged as posterior and anterior actuators to simulate the human walking motion. The proposed control system estimates the actuators' contraction as a function of hip and knee joint angles. Based on the contraction model obtained, input pressures for each actuators are measured. The control system are performed at different gait cycles and two PMA settings for the mono- and bi-articular actuators are evaluated in this research. The results showed that the system was able to achieve the maximum muscle moment at the joints, and able to perform the heel contact movement. This explained that the antagonistic mono- and bi-articular actuators worked effectively.

  18. High frequencies of elevated alkaline phosphatase activity and rickets exist in extremely low birth weight infants despite current nutritional support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parker Bruce R

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Osteopenia and rickets are common among extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW, Methods We evaluated all ELBW infants admitted to Texas Children's Hospital NICU in 2006 and 2007. Of 211 admissions, we excluded 98 patients who were admitted at >30 days of age or did not survive/stay for >6 weeks. Bone radiographs obtained in 32 infants were reviewed by a radiologist masked to laboratory values. Results In this cohort of 113 infants, P-APA was found to have a significant inverse relationship with BW, gestational age and serum phosphorus. In paired comparisons, P-APA of infants Conclusion Elevation of P-APA >600 IU/L was very common in ELBW infants. BW was significantly inversely related to both P-APA and radiologic rickets. No single value of P-APA was related to radiological findings of rickets. Given the very high risk of osteopenia and rickets among ELBW infants, we recommend consideration of early screening and early mineral supplementation, especially among infants

  19. Executive functions in extremely low birth weight and late-preterm preschoolers: effects on working memory and response inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Ida Sue; Kerns, Kimberly A; Müller, Ulrich; Ahronovich, Margot D; Litman, Fern R

    2012-01-01

    Executive function (EF) refers to fundamental capacities that underlie more complex cognition and have ecological relevance across the individual's lifespan. However, emerging executive functions have rarely been studied in young preterm children (age 3) whose critical final stages of fetal development are interrupted by their early birth. We administered four novel touch-screen computerized measures of working memory and inhibition to 369 participants born between 2004 and 2006 (52 Extremely Low Birth Weight [ELBW]; 196 late preterm; 121 term-born). ELBW performed worse than term-born on simple and complex working memory and inhibition tasks and had the highest percentage of incomplete performance on a continuous performance test. The latter finding indicates developmental immaturity and the ELBW group's most at-risk preterm status. Additionally, late-preterm participants performed worse compared with term-born on measures of complex working memory but did not differ from those term-born on response inhibition measures. These results are consistent with a recent literature that identifies often subtle but detectable neurocognitive deficits in late-preterm children. Our results support the development and standardization of computerized touch-screen measures to assess EF subcomponent abilities during the formative preschool period. Such measures may be useful to monitor the developmental trajectory of critical executive function abilities in preterm children, and their use is necessary for timely recognition of deficit and application of appropriate interventional strategies.

  20. Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

    2017-06-01

    In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

  1. Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnarasi, R.; Dhanya, C. T.

    2016-03-01

    Modeling of extreme events and its dynamic behavior have always been an intriguing topic. Increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events has widely been reported in recent decades, which is attributed to abrupt changes in climate. Numerous studies on extreme Indian monsoon characteristics, using a coarse-resolution data set, have pointed out significant changes in heavy precipitation pattern over India. However, these studies differ in their conclusions, emphasizing the need for a fine-resolution analysis. The present study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and trends in the extreme (wet and dry) Indian monsoon precipitation, using 0.25° × 0.25° high-resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901-2013). Significant increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall and spatial heterogeneity is observed over the past half century. In addition, significant negative trends in wet spell durations and positive trends in dry spell durations are observed over wet regions; whereas contrasting trends are observed over dry regions. A shift in the frequency distribution of extreme events during the monsoon period is also noticed. The 50 year return level of maximum intensity clearly shows positive trends over the past century. Though characteristics of extremes are observed to be highly localized, apparent signs of wet regions turning drier and dry regions turning wetter are obtained. A comprehensive insight into different characteristics (intensity, spell, onset, and frequency) of Indian monsoon extremes is provided, which will help in effective water resources management and flood/drought hazard preparedness.

  2. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  3. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  4. Changes in management policies for extremely preterm births and neonatal outcomes from 2003 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonet, Mercedes; Cuttini, M; Piedvache, A

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: to investigate changes in maternity and neonatal unit policies towards extremely preterm infants (EPTI) between 2003 and 2012 and concurrent trends in their mortality and morbidity in ten European regions. DESIGN: population-based cohort studies in 2003 (MOSAIC study) and 2011/12 (EPIC...

  5. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  6. Body Weight Can Change How Your Emotions Are Perceived

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Accurately interpreting other’s emotions through facial expressions has important adaptive values for social interactions. However, due to the stereotypical social perception of overweight individuals as carefree, humorous, and light-hearted, the body weight of those with whom we interact may have a systematic influence on our emotion judgment even though it has no relevance to the expressed emotion itself. In this experimental study, we examined the role of body weight in faces on the affective perception of facial expressions. We hypothesized that the weight perceived in a face would bias the assessment of an emotional expression, with overweight faces generally more likely to be perceived as having more positive and less negative expressions than healthy weight faces. Using two-alternative forced-choice perceptual decision tasks, participants were asked to sort the emotional expressions of overweight and healthy weight facial stimuli that had been gradually morphed across six emotional intensity levels into one of two categories—“neutral vs. happy” (Experiment 1) and “neutral vs. sad” (Experiment 2). As predicted, our results demonstrated that overweight faces were more likely to be categorized as happy (i.e., lower happy decision threshold) and less likely to be categorized as sad (i.e., higher sad decision threshold) compared to healthy weight faces that had the same levels of emotional intensity. The neutral-sad decision threshold shift was negatively correlated with participant’s own fear of becoming fat, that is, those without a fear of becoming fat more strongly perceived overweight faces as sad relative to those with a higher fear. These findings demonstrate that the weight of the face systematically influences how its emotional expression is interpreted, suggesting that being overweight may make emotional expressions appear more happy and less sad than they really are. PMID:27870892

  7. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

  8. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  9. Osteocalcin carboxylation is not associated with body weight or percent fat changes during weight loss in post-menopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centi, Amanda J; Booth, Sarah L; Gundberg, Caren M; Saltzman, Edward; Nicklas, Barbara; Shea, M Kyla

    2015-12-01

    Osteocalcin (OC) is a vitamin K-dependent bone protein used as a marker of bone formation. Mouse models have demonstrated a role for the uncarboxylated form of OC (ucOC) in energy metabolism, including energy expenditure and adiposity, but human data are equivocal. The purpose of this study was to determine the associations between changes in measures of OC and changes in body weight and percent body fat in obese, but otherwise healthy post-menopausal women undergoing a 20-week weight loss program. All participants received supplemental vitamins K and D and calcium. Body weight and body fat percentage (%BF) were assessed before and after the intervention. Serum OC [(total (tOC), ucOC, percent uncarboxylated (%ucOC)], and procollagen type 1N-terminal propeptide (P1NP; a measure of bone formation) were measured. Women lost an average of 10.9 ± 3.9 kg and 4 %BF. Serum concentrations of tOC, ucOC, %ucOC, and P1NP did not significantly change over the twenty-week intervention, nor were these measures associated with changes in weight (all p > 0.27) or %BF (all p > 0.54). Our data do not support an association between any serum measure of OC and weight or %BF loss in post-menopausal women supplemented with nutrients implicated in bone health.

  10. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  11. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-07

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  12. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  13. Small for gestational age and poor fluid intelligence in childhood predict externalizing behaviors among young adults born at extremely low birth weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahat, Ayelet; Van Lieshout, Ryan J; Saigal, Saroj; Boyle, Michael H; Schmidt, Louis A

    2015-02-01

    Although infants born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight intelligence. As young adults, a subset of ELBW survivors free of major neurosensory impairments provided self-reports of personality characteristics related to psychopathology. Data from 66 participants indicated that, as predicted, the association between ELBW and externalizing behaviors was moderated by fluid intelligence. Specifically, ELBW individuals with poor fluid intelligence who were born small for gestational age (birth weight intelligence might be a cognitive mechanism contributing to the development of psychopathology among nonimpaired individuals who were born at ELBW and small for gestational age.

  14. Freshman 15 in England: a longitudinal evaluation of first year university student's weight change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadeboncoeur, Claudia; Foster, Charlie; Townsend, Nick

    2016-01-01

    Weight change in first year university students, often referred to as 'Freshman 15', has been shown to be a common problem in North America. Studies have reported weight gain to be between 1 kg and 4 kg over the academic year and a recent meta-analysis found a mean gain of 1.34 kg and that 61 % of students gained weight. A limited number of studies have investigated weight change in England and large scale studies are needed to understand better weight change trends and to conduct subgroup analyses. This is important in the context of rising obesity prevalence, especially as behaviours and unhealthy weight in early adulthood often remains over the lifetime. We recruited students across 23 universities in England to complete a web-based survey at three time points in 2014-2015: beginning of academic year, December, end of academic year. Students were asked to self-report height and weight. We calculated weight change of each student between time points and conducted t-tests and pared analysis of variance to investigate the effect of time, sex and initial BMI. We also investigated weight change amongst weight gainers and in weight losers separately. We followed 215 students over three time points and found a mean weight change of 0.98 kg (95%CI 0.49-1.47) over a mean length of 34 weeks of follow-up. The weight change rate was not significantly different over different terms. Over 51 % of the sample gained more than 0.5 kg by the end of the academic year, with a mean gain of 3.46 kg. Female weight gainers had a significantly lower baseline weight than non-weight gaining females. Twenty-five percent of the sample lost more than 0.5 kg with a mean of -3.21 kg. Within weight losers, males lost significantly more weight than females. Our findings reinforce that the first year of university is a crucial time in the life of students during which the majority tend to gain weight. However, we also found that 25 % lost weight, indicating that 75 % of students

  15. Prognostic value of weight change in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Almdal, T; Mikkelsen, K L

    2002-01-01

    the two examinations was significantly associated with level of COPD, reaching approximately 30% in subjects with severe COPD. After adjusting for age, smoking habits, baseline BMI and lung function, weight loss was associated with higher mortality in both persons with and without COPD (rate ratio (RR...

  16. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  17. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  18. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    2014-01-01

    and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate are needed. Additionally, it is equally important to understand the natural variation on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate the changes and uncertainties in Danish...... with a cycle of 25-35 years, a behavior that can in part be explained by sea level pressure differences over the Atlantic. Projections based on the historical observations suggest that precipitation extremes in the Eastern part of Denmark should have been ascending in the last two decades. However...... are discussed. Accounting for the uncertainty introduced by these factors a 10-year event is expected to increase by 30% over a projection period of 100 years. This is less than the variation within one natural oscillation cycle, indicating that it is crucial to understand and account for the future multi...

  19. Mortality and Morbidity of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants in the Mainland of China: A Multi-center Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Jia Lin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: With the progress of perinatal medicine and neonatal technology, more and more extremely low birth weight (ELBW survived all over the world. This study was designed to investigate the short-term outcomes of ELBW infants during their Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU stay in the mainland of China. Methods: All infants admitted to 26 NICUs with a birth weight (BW < l000 g were included between January l, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All the data were collected retrospectively from clinical records by a prospectively designed questionnaire. The data collected from each NICU transmitted to the main institution where the results were aggregated and analyzed. Categorical variables were performed with Pearson Chi-square test. Binary Logistic regression analysis was used to detect risk factors. Results: A total of 258 ELBW infants were admitted to 26 NICUs, of whom the mean gestational age (GA was 28.1 ± 2.2 weeks, and the mean BW was 868 ± 97 g. The overall survival rate at discharge was 50.0%. Despite aggressive treatment 60 infants (23.3% died and another 69 infants (26.7% died after medical care withdrawal. Furthermore, the survival rate was significantly higher in coastal areas than inland areas (53.6% vs. 35.3%, P = 0.019. BW < 750 g and GA < 28 weeks were the largest risk factors, and being small for gestational age was a protective factor related to mortality. Respiratory distress syndrome was the most common complication. The incidence of patent ductus arteriosus, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, retinopathy of prematurity was 26.2%, 33.7%, 6.7%, 48.1%, and 41.4%, respectively. Ventilator associated pneumonia was the most common hospital acquired infection during hospitalization. Conclusions: Our study was the first survey that revealed the present status of ELBW infants in the mainland of China. The mortality and morbidity of ELBW infants remained high as compared to other

  20. Mortality and Morbidity of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants in the Mainland of China: A Multi-center Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hui-Jia Lin; Li-Zhong Du; Xiao-Lu Ma; Li-Ping Shi; Jia-Hua Pan; Xiao-Mei Tong; Qiu-Ping Li

    2015-01-01

    Background:With the progress ofperinatal medicine and neonatal technology,more and more extremely low birth weight (ELBW) survived all over the world.This study was designed to investigate the short-term outcomes of ELBW infants during their Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) stay in the mainland of China.Methods:All infants admitted to 26 NICUs with a birth weight (BW) <1000 g were included between January 1,2011 and December 3 1,201 1.All the data were collected retrospectively from clinical records by a prospectively designed questionnaire.The data collected from each NICU transmitted to the main institution where the results were aggregated and analyzed.Categorical variables were performed with Pearson Chi-square test.Binary Logistic regression analysis was used to detect risk factors.Results:A total of 258 ELBW infants were admitted to 26 NICUs,of whom the mean gestational age (GA) was 28.1 ± 2.2 weeks,and the mean BW was 868 ± 97 g.The overall survival rate at discharge was 50.0%.Despite aggressive treatment 60 infants (23.3%) died and another 69 infants (26.7%) died after medical care withdrawal.Furthermore,the survival rate was significantly higher in coastal areas than inland areas (53.6% vs.35.3%,P =0.019).BW <750 g and GA <28 weeks were the largest risk factors,and being small for gestational age was a protective factor related to mortality.Respiratory distress syndrome was the most common complication.The incidence of patent ductus arteriosus,intraventricular hemorrhage,periventricular leukomalacia,bronchopulmonary dysplasia,retinopathy of prematurity was 26.2%,33.7%,6.7%,48.1%,and 41.4%,respectively.Ventilator associated pneumonia was the most common hospital acquired infection during hospitalization.Conclusions:Our study was the first survey that revealed the present status of ELBW infants in the mainland of China.The mortality and morbidity of ELBW infants remained high as compared to other developed countries.

  1. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  2. Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hall, Kevin D

    2010-01-01

    .... Here, I present the first computational model that simulates how diet perturbations result in adaptations of fuel selection and energy expenditure that predict body weight and composition changes...

  3. Growth and Development in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants After the Introduction of Exclusive Human Milk Feedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colacci, Michael; Murthy, Karna; DeRegnier, Raye-Ann O; Khan, Janine Y; Robinson, Daniel T

    2017-01-01

    Objective To estimate associations of exclusive human milk (EHM) feedings with growth and neurodevelopment through 18 months corrected age (CA) in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. Study Design ELBW infants admitted from July 2011 to June 2013 who survived were reviewed. Infants managed from July 2011 to June 2012 were fed with bovine milk-based fortifiers and formula (BOV). Beginning in July 2012, initial feedings used a human milk-based fortifier to provide EHM feedings. Infants were grouped on the basis of feeding regimen. Primary outcomes were the Bayley-III cognitive scores at 6, 12, and 18 months and growth. Results Infants (n = 85; 46% received EHM) were born at 26 ± 1.9 weeks (p = 0.92 between groups) weighing 776 ± 139 g (p = 0.67 between groups). Cognitive domain scores were similar at 6 months (BOV: 96 ± 7; EHM: 95 ± 14; p = 0.70), 12 months (BOV: 97 ± 10; EHM: 98 ± 9; p = 0.86), and 18 months (BOV: 97 ± 16; EHM: 98 ± 14; p = 0.71) CA. Growth velocity prior to discharge (BOV: 12.1 ± 5.2 g/kg/day; EHM: 13.1 ± 4.0 g/kg/day; p = 0.33) and subsequent growth was similar between groups. Conclusion EHM feedings appear to support similar growth and neurodevelopment in ELBW infants as compared with feedings containing primarily bovine milk-based products.

  4. Response of Groundwater to Climate Change under Extreme Climate Conditions in North China Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying Zhang; Jincui Wang; Jihong Jing; Jichao Sun

    2014-01-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterio-ration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The cli-mate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation dis-played a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels.

  5. Relations of hedonic hunger and behavioral change to weight loss among adults in a behavioral weight loss program utilizing meal-replacement products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theim, Kelly R; Brown, Joshua D; Juarascio, Adrienne S; Malcolm, Robert R; O'Neil, Patrick M

    2013-11-01

    Greater self-regulatory behavior usage is associated with greater weight loss within behavioral weight loss treatments. Hedonic hunger (i.e., susceptibility to environmental food cues) may impede successful behavior change and weight loss. Adult men and women (N = 111, body mass index M ± SD = 35.89 ± 6.97 kg/m(2)) were assessed before and after a 15-week lifestyle change weight loss program with a partial meal-replacement diet. From pre- to post-treatment, reported weight control behavior usage improved and hedonic hunger decreased, and these changes were inversely related. Individuals with higher hedonic hunger scores at baseline showed the greatest weight loss. Similarly, participants with lower baseline use of weight control behaviors lost more weight, and increased weight control behavior usage was associated with greater weight loss-particularly among individuals with low baseline hedonic hunger. Further study is warranted regarding the significance of hedonic hunger in weight loss treatments.

  6. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  7. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  8. Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

  9. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  10. 'Thin people … they're healthy': young children's understanding of body weight change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, S L; Collins, S C; Hill, A J

    2016-10-01

    While research has investigated negative stereotyping of fat body shapes, little has focused on young children's understanding of the mechanisms, motivations and consequences of weight change. To investigate children's understanding of how weight change is achieved, people's motivation for weight change, and the consequences of weight loss or weight gain. One hundred children (mean age 5.2, 38 girls) read a book in which one of the main characters (male/female according to the child's sex) was either healthy weight or overweight. Afterwards, this character was described as gaining or losing weight, and drawings which depicted the child in the story as either healthy weight or overweight were presented to the child and discussed. An audio-recorded semi-structured interview followed and transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. Nearly all children described the weight/shape change and attributed this to food more frequently than exercise. Weight loss was viewed positively and both motivations and consequences grouped under two master themes (physical and social reasons). No clear gender differences were observed in these responses. Talking with 5-year-olds showed them to be observant and knowledgeable, especially about motivations for and consequences of weight change. For those working to improve children's health literacy, this suggests receptiveness to early and fact-based education. © 2015 World Obesity.

  11. Reliability and minimal detectable change of the weight-bearing lunge test: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powden, Cameron J; Hoch, Johanna M; Hoch, Matthew C

    2015-08-01

    Ankle dorsiflexion range of motion (DROM) is often a point of emphasis during the rehabilitation of lower extremity pathologies. With the growing popularity of weight-bearing DROM assessments, several versions of the weight-bearing lunge (WBLT) test have been developed and numerous reliability studies have been conducted. The purpose of this systematic review was to critically appraise and synthesize the studies which examined the reliability and responsiveness of the WBLT to assess DROM. A systematic search of PubMed and EBSCO Host databases from inception to September 2014 was conducted to identify studies whose primary aim was assessing the reliability of the WBLT. The Quality Appraisal of Reliability Studies assessment tool was utilized to determine the quality of included studies. Relative reliability was examined through intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and responsiveness was evaluated through minimal detectable change (MDC). A total of 12 studies met the eligibility criteria and were included. Nine included studies assessed inter-clinician reliability and 12 included studies assessed intra-clinician reliability. There was strong evidence that inter-clinician reliability (ICC = 0.80-0.99) as well as intra-clinician reliability (ICC = 0.65-0.99) of the WBLT is good. Additionally, average MDC scores of 4.6° or 1.6 cm for inter-clinician and 4.7° or 1.9 cm for intra-clinician were found, indicating the minimal change in DROM needed to be outside the error of the WBLT. This systematic review determined that the WBLT, regardless of method, can be used clinically to assess DROM as it provides consistent results between one or more clinicians and demonstrates reasonable responsiveness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. System Model Network for Adipose Tissue Signatures Related to Weight Changes in Response to Calorie Restriction and Subsequent Weight Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montastier, Emilie; Villa-Vialaneix, Nathalie; Caspar-Bauguil, Sylvie; Hlavaty, Petr; Tvrzicka, Eva; Gonzalez, Ignacio; Saris, Wim H. M.; Langin, Dominique; Kunesova, Marie; Viguerie, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    Nutrigenomics investigates relationships between nutrients and all genome-encoded molecular entities. This holistic approach requires systems biology to scrutinize the effects of diet on tissue biology. To decipher the adipose tissue (AT) response to diet induced weight changes we focused on key molecular (lipids and transcripts) AT species during a longitudinal dietary intervention. To obtain a systems model, a network approach was used to combine all sets of variables (bio-clinical, fatty acids and mRNA levels) and get an overview of their interactions. AT fatty acids and mRNA levels were quantified in 135 obese women at baseline, after an 8-week low calorie diet (LCD) and after 6 months of ad libitum weight maintenance diet (WMD). After LCD, individuals were stratified a posteriori according to weight change during WMD. A 3 steps approach was used to infer a global model involving the 3 sets of variables. It consisted in inferring intra-omic networks with sparse partial correlations and inter-omic networks with regularized canonical correlation analysis and finally combining the obtained omic-specific network in a single global model. The resulting networks were analyzed using node clustering, systematic important node extraction and cluster comparisons. Overall, AT showed both constant and phase-specific biological signatures in response to dietary intervention. AT from women regaining weight displayed growth factors, angiogenesis and proliferation signaling signatures, suggesting unfavorable tissue hyperplasia. By contrast, after LCD a strong positive relationship between AT myristoleic acid (a fatty acid with low AT level) content and de novo lipogenesis mRNAs was found. This relationship was also observed, after WMD, in the group of women that continued to lose weight. This original system biology approach provides novel insight in the AT response to weight control by highlighting the central role of myristoleic acid that may account for the beneficial

  13. Characteristics of extreme climate sequences over Korea using a regional climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eun-Soon, I.; Kwon, W.T. [KMA, Seoul (Korea). Climate Research Lab.

    2007-07-01

    The authors investigate the characteristics and potential future change of extreme climate phenomena based on daily statistical properties. To assess the fine-scale climate change projection over Korea, an ECHO-G B2 scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using the RegCM3 nesting system. Two sets of multidecadal simulations are performed for the present day (1971.2000) and future climate (2021.2050). They analyze four categories of weather spells in terms of the sequences of dry/wet and frost/hot days from the nested domain simulation of 20 km grid spacing. In the validation of the reference scenario, the model shows a reasonable performance of reproducing both observed climatological and distinct characteristics of each spell. Regarding the projected extreme climate events, the results indicate not only a significant change in frequency and intensity, but also substantial change in the fine scale detail of the regional distribution of temperature-based as well as precipitation-based extreme events. A substantial increase of hot spells is found along with increasing of maximum temperature. Longer-period frost spells are projected to decrease, whereas relatively short-period frost spells are likely to increase due to breaks of long spells by greenhouse warming. Wet spells of long periods tend to be more frequent, showing a distinct variation across regions. A recent study using the outputs of the IPCC AR4 coupled climate models also reports a significant increase of summer monsoon precipitation and a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon period over East Asia in particular over Korea (Kripalani et al. 2006). Hence it is important to quantify the influence of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change upon the frequency and intensity of extreme events at regional scale.

  14. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  15. Prognostic importance of weight change on short-term functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yerim; Kim, Chi Kyung; Jung, Seunguk; Ko, Sang-Bae; Lee, Seung-Hoon; Yoon, Byung-Woo

    2015-10-01

    Controversy exists regarding the question of whether weight change decreases or increases the risk of mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic importance of weight change on short-term outcomes in acute ischemic stroke patients. A total of 654 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled in this study from March 2010 to May 2013. We assessed the weight change of each participant between admission and discharge from the Department of Neurology. Weight change was defined as change ≥0·05 kg/baseline body mass index unit. We evaluated the short-term outcomes using a modified Rankin Scale at three-months after the onset of a stroke. Among the 654 patients, 35·2% were included in the weight-change group. Weight loss occurred in 24·6% of the participants during the hospital stay following the stroke, which lasted an average of nine-days. Compared with the weight-stable group, the pronounced weight-loss group had a higher risk of unfavorable outcomes (odds ratio 2·43; 95% confidence interval 1·12-5·25). Short-term weight loss after stroke appears to be more common than we expected, and our results suggest that it is associated with unfavorable functional outcomes. Therefore, clinical nutrition should be considered as a component of medical treatment and weight loss should be monitored as an indicator of malnutrition. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

  16. Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Jo, Sera; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Shim, Kyo-Moon

    2016-05-01

    The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.

  17. Wearing a safety harness during treadmill walking influences lower extremity kinematics mainly through changes in ankle regularity and local stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Decker Leslie M

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Wearing a harness during treadmill walking ensures the subject's safety and is common practice in biomedical engineering research. However, the extent to which such practice influences gait is unknown. This study investigated harness-related changes in gait patterns, as evaluated from lower extremity kinematics during treadmill walking. Findings Healthy subjects (n = 10 walked on a treadmill at their preferred speed for 3 minutes with and without wearing a harness (LiteGait®, Mobility Research, Inc.. In the former condition, no weight support was provided to the subjects. Lower extremity kinematics was assessed in the sagittal plane from the mean (meanRoM, standard deviation (SDRoM and coefficient of variation (CoVRoM of the hip, knee, and ankle ranges of motion (RoM, as well as from the sample entropy (SampEn and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LyE of the joints' angles. Wearing the harness increased the meanRoM of the hip, the SDRoM and the CoVRoM of the knee, and the SampEn and the LyE of the ankle. In particular, the harness effect sizes for both the SampEn and the LyE of the ankle were large, likely reflecting a meaningful decline in the neuromuscular stabilizing control of this joint. Conclusions Wearing a harness during treadmill walking marginally influences lower extremity kinematics, resulting in more or less subtle changes in certain kinematic variables. However, in cases where differences in gait patterns would be expressed through modifications in these variables, having subjects walk with a harness may mask or reinforce such differences.

  18. Extreme Mountain Ultra-Marathon Leads to Acute but Transient Increase in Cerebral Water Diffusivity and Plasma Biomarkers Levels Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchi, Davide; Viallon, Magalie; Le Goff, Caroline; Millet, Grégoire P.; Giardini, Guido; Croisille, Pierre; Haller, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Background: Pioneer studies demonstrate the impact of extreme sport load on the human brain, leading to threatening conditions for athlete's health such as cerebral edema. The investigation of brain water diffusivity, allowing the measurement of the intercellular water and the assessment of cerebral edema, can give a great contribution to the investigation of the effects of extreme sports on the brain. We therefore assessed the effect of supra-physiological effort (extreme distance and elevation changes) in mountain ultra-marathons (MUMs) athletes combining for the first time brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and blood parameters. Methods:This longitudinal study included 19 volunteers (44.2 ± 9.5 years) finishing a MUM (330 km, elevation + 24000 m). Quantitative measurements of brain diffusion-weighted images (DWI) were performed at 3 time-points: Before the race, upon arrival and after 48 h. Multiple blood biomarkers were simultaneously investigated. Data analyses included brain apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and physiological data comparisons between three time-points. Results:The whole brain ADC significantly increased from baseline to arrival (p = 0.005) and then significantly decreased at recovery (p = 0.005) to lower values than at baseline (p = 0.005). While sodium, potassium, calcium, and chloride as well as hematocrit (HCT) changed over time, the serum osmolality remained constant. Significant correlations were found between whole brain ADC changes and osmolality (p = 0.01), cholesterol (p = 0.009), c-reactive protein (p = 0.04), sodium (p = 0.01), and chloride (p = 0.002) plasma level variations. Conclusions:These results suggest the relative increase of the inter-cellular volume upon arrival, and subsequently its reduction to lower values than at baseline, indicating that even after 48 h the brain has not fully recovered to its equilibrium state. Even though serum electrolytes may only indirectly indicate modifications at the brain level due

  19. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

    Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model projecti......Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model...... considered. Urban flooding in Aarhus was simulated with a model that dynamically couples a hydraulic model of the drainage system and a 2D overland flow model. Scenarios representing current and future climate including uncertainties in the climate projections were analysed using synthetic design storms...

  20. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-09-01

    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  1. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi province under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; Zhao, Yong; He, Hailong; He, Guohua

    2016-09-01

    Extreme climate index is one of the useful tools to monitor and detect climate change. The primary objective of this study is to provide a more comprehensively the changes in extreme precipitation between the periods of 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 in Shaanxi province under climate change, which will hopefully provide a scientific understanding of the precipitation-related natural hazards such as flood and drought. Daily precipitation from 34 surface meteorological stations were used to calculated 13 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) generated by the joint World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (CCI)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) expect Team on climate change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Two periods including 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 were selected and five types of precipitation days (R10mm-R100mm) were defined, to provide more evidences of climate change impacts on the extreme precipitation events, and specially, to investigate the changes in different types of precipitation days. The EPIs were generated using RClimRex software, and the trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Sen's slope estimator. The relationships between the EPIs and the impacts of climate anomalies on typical EPIs were investigated using correlation and composite analysis. The mainly results include: 1) Thirteen EPIs, except consecutive dry day (CDD), were positive trends dominated for the period of 1984-2013, but the trends were not obvious for the period of 1954-1983. Most of the trends were not statistically significant at 5 % significance level. 2) The spatial distributions of stations that exhibited positive and negative trends were scattered. However, the stations that had negative trends mainly distributed in the north of Shaanxi province, and the stations that had positive trends mainly located in the south. 3) The percentage of stations that had positive

  2. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-10-01

    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  3. Weight change and workplace absenteeism in the HealthWorks study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanWormer, Jeffrey J; Linde, Jennifer A; Harnack, Lisa J; Stovitz, Steven D; Jeffery, Robert W

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about the relationship between weight change and workplace absenteeism. The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which weight change predicted 2-year absenteeism. A longitudinal analysis of 1,228 employees enrolled in a worksite-randomized controlled trial was performed. Participants were all working adults in the Minneapolis, MN, area (USA). The final model indicated a significant interaction between weight change and baseline BMI. The difference in absenteeism ranged from (mean ± SE) 3.2 ± 1.2 days among healthy weight employees who maintained their weight to 6.6 ± 1.1 days among obese employees who gained weight (and slightly higher among healthy weight employees who lost weight). The adjusted model also indicated that participants who were male, not depressed, nonsmokers, and had lower baseline absenteeism had significantly less workplace absenteeism relative to participants who were female, depressed, smokers, and had higher baseline absenteeism. Absenteeism was generally low in this sample, but healthy weight employees who maintained their body weight over 2 years had the fewest number of sick days. More research is needed in this area, but future workforce attendance interventions may be improved by focusing on the primary prevention of weight gain in healthy weight employees. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

  4. The Associations of Maternal Weight Change with Breastfeeding, Diet and Physical Activity During the Postpartum Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Olmedo, Nancy; Hernández-Cordero, Sonia; Neufeld, Lynnette M; García-Guerra, Armando; Mejía-Rodríguez, Fabiola; Méndez Gómez-Humarán, Ignacio

    2016-02-01

    To determine the association between breastfeeding practices, diet and physical activity and maternal postpartum weight. This was a secondary data analysis of a randomized community trial on beneficiaries of the Programa de Desarrollo Humano Oportunidades, recently renamed Prospera (n = 314 pregnant women), without any diseases that could affect body weight. Generalized estimating equations were used to determine the association between postpartum weight change and changes in diet, physical activity and type of breastfeeding. The mean postpartum weight change from the first to the third month was 0.6 ± 2.2 kg. Women who breastfed exclusively for 3 months had a 4.1 (SE = 1.9) kg weight reduction in comparison with women who did not provide exclusive breastfeeding or who discontinued breastfeeding before 3 months (p = 0.04). There was no association between postpartum weight change and physical activity (p = 0.24) or energy intake (p = 0.06). Exclusive breastfeeding was associated with maternal postpartum weight reduction. These results reinforce the World Health Organization recommendation of exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life in order to reduce the risk of weight retention or weight gain in postpartum women. It has been well established that exclusive breastfeeding is beneficial for both infants and mothers, but promoting breastfeeding as a strategy to promote postpartum weight loss is of paramount importance, especially in countries like Mexico where excessive weight in women of reproductive age is a public health problem.

  5. NPCs Vote! Changing Voter Reactions Over Time Using the Extreme AI Personality Engine

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeson, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    Can non-player characters have human-realistic personalities, changing over time depending on input from those around them? And can they have different reactions and thoughts about different people? Using Extreme AI, a psychology-based personality engine using the Five Factor model of personality, I answer these questions by creating personalities for 100 voters and allowing them to react to two politicians to see if the NPC voters' choice of candidate develops in a realistic-seeming way, bas...

  6. Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

  7. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  8. Retrospective Reports of Weight Change and Inflammation in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarinnapha Vasunilashorn

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. This study investigated the association between weight change and inflammation in a nationally representative population of US adults aged 40 and older. Methods. Using the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005–2008, logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between high levels of inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP] and infection (white blood cell count [WBC] with 1- and 10-year change in self-reported weight status. Results. Change in 1- and 10-year weight was associated with high CRP but not high WBC. Individuals who gained or lost ≥10 kg had an odds of having high CRP that was 1.96 (95% CI 1.11–3.50 and 1.61 (95% CI 1.02–2.46 as high, respectively, as those who maintained a stable weight (<4 kg change in the past year. The increased risk of elevated CRP among individuals who experienced at least 10 kg of weight loss or weight gain was also observed for weight change that occurred over the past 10 years; however, weight loss over the 10-year period was no longer associated with high inflammation. Conclusions. These results suggest that adult respondents who retrospectively self-reported weight loss or gain had higher levels of inflammation relative to their weight stable counterparts.

  9. Comparison of weight changes following unilateral and staged bilateral STN DBS for advanced PD

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Eric M; Kurundkar, Ashish; Cutter, Gary R.; Huang, He; Guthrie, Barton L.; Watts, Ray L; Walker, Harrison C.

    2011-01-01

    Unilateral and bilateral subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN DBS) in Parkinson's disease (PD) result in weight gain in the initial postoperative months, but little is known about the changes in weight following unilateral and staged bilateral STN DBS over longer time intervals. A case–control comparison evaluated weight changes over 2 years in 43 consecutive unilateral STN DBS patients, among whom 25 elected to undergo staged bilateral STN DBS, and 21 age-matched and disease sever...

  10. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Predicts Future Weight Change in the Millennium Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    weight changes in individuals with PTSD: (1) sleep deprivation caused by PTSD, as shorter sleep duration has been linked to higher obesity prevalence...provider with PTSD was also assessed at time 0. Behavioral factors that may be associated with weight change ( sleep , binge eating, and alcohol and tobacco...age, smoking status, previous mental health conditions, hours of sleep , or depression modified the rela tionship between PTSD status and weight

  11. Weight change trajectory in women with breast cancer receiving chemotherapy and the effect of different regimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li-Ni; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Miaskowski, Christine; Lin, Yung-Chang; Wang, Jong-Shyan; Jeng, Chii; Chen, Mei-Ling

    2014-10-01

    To investigate the trajectory of weight change in Taiwanese women with breast cancer after starting chemotherapy and the impact of chemotherapy regimens on weight change while controlling for age, menopausal status, body mass index, lymph node involvement and changes in habits of dietary fat intake and exercise. Weight gain after adjuvant chemotherapy in women with breast cancer has negative impact on health outcomes. Longitudinal, clinical observational study. Weights were repeatedly measured in 147 women with breast cancer stages I-III. Hierarchical linear modelling was used to analyse these longitudinal data. The overall pattern of weight change was a cubic form beginning with a mean of 56·9 kg before chemotherapy. It gradually increased to 59·4 kg at 8·5 months after the first chemotherapy followed by a decrease to 58·5 kg at 21·5 months. During the last 2·5 months, weight increased slightly and never returned to the initial level. After controlling for confounders, steeper weight change was observed among women receiving cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil. The highest weight gain in the cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil group was 2·9 kg (5%) vs. 0·9 kg (1%) in the anthracycline-based group. The trajectory of body weight change within two years after chemotherapy shows a trend of gradual ascent, followed by a small decline and a slight increase in the last 2·5 months. The chemotherapy regimen can predict the trend after controlling for other confounders; women on cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil have a steeper weight change. Nurses can inform women with breast cancer about the expected changes in body weight after chemotherapy to reduce their uncertainty. Future studies on effective interventions to minimise chemotherapy-induced weight gain are needed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata J.; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Debele, Sisay E.; Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Hisdal, Hege; Lawrence, Deborah; Meresa, Hadush K.; Napiórkowski, Jarosław J.; Osuch, Marzena; Strupczewski, Witold G.; Wilson, Donna; Wong, Wai Kwok

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish-Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight "twinned" catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021-2050) and the far-future (2071-2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.

  13. An ensemble study of extreme North Sea storm surges in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like the Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. We find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  14. Evaluation of Haemodynamic Changes of Proximal Arterial Occlusion in the Lower Extremities by Spectrum Doppler Ultrasonography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective is to analyse the changes of haemodynamic and Doppler ultrasonography spectrum in the proximal arterial occlusion of lower extremities, and to explore the value of spectrum Doppler ultrasonography in the diagnosis of lower extremity arterial occlusive disease. Methods: Thirty-four patients (thirty-nine occlusion arteries were examined with two-dimensional ultrasound combined with colour Doppler flow imaging (CDFI, and the results were compared. Result: The waveform shape in the artery proximal to the occlusion shows that blood flow velocity becomes slower, and diastolic reverse wave slowly disappears even upward. Systolic waveform records a steep upstroke, a slow downstroke and a shoulder on the downstroke. The appearance of the shoulder on the downstroke is earlier than the diastolic upward wave. The differences of peak systolic velocity, acceleration time, deceleration time, systolic acceleration, deceleration, diastolic reverse flow velocity, systolic acceleration time/systolic duration and systolic deceleration time/systolic duration in the proximal occlusion segment compared with the control group are statistically significant (p < 0.05. Conclusion: Artery occlusion can lead to haemodynamic response and spectrum waveform change. Timely discovery of the changes of the spectrum can be of clinical significance in the diagnosis of lower extremity arterial occlusive disease.

  15. Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Deepti; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2014-06-01

    The South Asian summer monsoon directly affects the lives of more than 1/6th of the world's population. There is substantial variability within the monsoon season, including fluctuations between periods of heavy rainfall (wet spells) and low rainfall (dry spells). These fluctuations can cause extreme wet and dry regional conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure and human systems. Through a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations (1951-2011), we show that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability. Further, we find statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of wet spells, and statistically significant decreases in the intensity of dry spells. These changes in extreme wet and dry spell characteristics are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere. The observed changes in wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance for water resources, agriculture, disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.

  16. Dietary fiber and subsequent changes in body weight and waist circumference in European men and women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Huaidong; van der A, Daphne L; Boshuizen, Hendriek C;

    2010-01-01

    Dietary fiber may play a role in obesity prevention. Until now, the role that fiber from different sources plays in weight change had rarely been studied.......Dietary fiber may play a role in obesity prevention. Until now, the role that fiber from different sources plays in weight change had rarely been studied....

  17. Association of dietary patterns and weight change in rural older adults 75 years and older

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little is known about the relationship between weight change and dietary patterns (DP) in older adults, especially in those of advanced age (_75 years). We examined the association of DP with obesity and five-year weight change in community-dwelling older adults (n=270; mean±SD age: 78.6±3.9 years)....

  18. Main nutrient patterns are associated with prospective weight change in adults from 10 European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freisling, Heinz; Pisa, Pedro T.; Ferrari, Pietro; Byrnes, Graham; Moskal, Aurelie; Dahm, Christina C.; Vergnaud, Anne Claire; Boutron-Ruault, Marie Christine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Cadeau, Claire; Kühn, Tilman; Neamat-Allah, Jasmine; Buijsse, Brian; Boeing, Heiner; Halkjær, Jytte; Tjonneland, Anne; Hansen, Camilla P.; Quirós, J. Ramón; Travier, Noémie; Molina-Montes, Esther; Amiano, Pilar; Huerta, José M.; Barricarte, Aurelio; Khaw, Kay Tee; Wareham, Nicholas; Key, Tim J.; Romaguera, Dora; Lu, Yunxia; Lassale, Camille M.; Naska, Androniki; Orfanos, Philippos; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Masala, Giovanna; Pala, Valeria; Berrino, Franco; Tumino, Rosario; Ricceri, Fulvio; de Magistris, Maria Santucci; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Ocké, Marga C.; Sonestedt, Emily; Ericson, Ulrika; Johansson, Mattias; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Braaten, Tonje; Peeters, Petra H M; Slimani, Nadia

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Various food patterns have been associated with weight change in adults, but it is unknown which combinations of nutrients may account for such observations. We investigated associations between main nutrient patterns and prospective weight change in adults.Methods: This study includes 235,

  19. A prospective study of the association between weight changes and self-rated health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Mette K; Hundrup, Yrsa A; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-01-01

    Obesity and self-rated health (SRH) are strong predictors of morbidity and mortality but their interrelation is sparsely studied. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between weight changes and changes in SRH among women. We also examined if poor SRH at baseline was associated...... with later weight gain....

  20. Is the association of breastfeeding with child obesity explained by infant weight change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. van Rossem (Lenie); E.M. Taveras (Elsie M.); M.W. Gillman (Matthew W.); K.P. Kleinman (Ken P.); S.L. Rifas-Shiman (Sheryl L.); H. Raat (Hein); E. Oken (Emily)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractObjective. Breastfeeding and infant weight change are both associated with adiposity. We examined the extent to which infant weight change mediates the association between breastfeeding and adiposity at age 3 years. Methods. We studied 884 children in a prospective cohort study. We deter

  1. Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørland, Silje Lund; Sorteberg, Asgeir

    2016-07-01

    Extreme rainfall events in the central Indian region are often related to the passage of synoptic scale monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS). This study uses the surrogate climate change method on ten monsoon LPS cases connected to observed extreme rainfall events, to investigate how sensitive the precipitation and runoff are to an idealized warmer and moister atmosphere. The ten cases are simulated with three different initial and lateral boundary conditions: the unperturbed control run, and two sets of perturbed runs where the atmospheric temperature is increased uniformly throughout the atmosphere, the specific humidity increased according to Clausius Clapeyron's relation, but the large-scale flow is unchanged. The difference between the control and perturbed simulations are mainly due to the imposed warming and feedback influencing the synoptic flow. The mean precipitation change with warming in the central Indian region is 18-20 %/K, with largest changes at the end of the LPS tracks. The LPS in the warmer runs are bringing more moisture further inland that is released as precipitation. In the perturbed runs the precipitation rate is increasing at all percentiles, and there is more frequent rainfall with very heavy intensities. This leads to a shift in which category that contributes most to the total precipitation: more of the precipitation is coming from the category with very heavy intensities. The runoff changes are similar to the precipitation changes, except the response in intensity of very heavy runoff, which is around twice the change in intensity of very heavy precipitation.

  2. Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kidmose

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first attempt to estimate future groundwater levels by applying extreme value statistics on predictions from a hydrological model. Climate for the future period, 2081–2100, are represented by projections from nine combinations of three global climate models and six regional climate models, and downscaled with two different methods. An integrated surface water/groundwater model is forced with precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration from the 18 model – and downscaling combinations. Extreme value analyses are performed on the hydraulic head changes from a control period (1991–2010 to the future period for the 18 combinations. Hydraulic heads for return periods of 21, 50 and 100 yr (T21–100 are estimated. Three uncertainty sources are evaluated; climate models, downscaling and extreme value statistics. Of these sources, downscaling dominates for the higher return periods of 50 and 100 yr, whereas uncertainty from climate models and downscaling are similar for lower return periods. Uncertainty from the extreme value statistics only contribute up to around 10% of the uncertainty from the three sources.

  3. How do pregnancy-related weight changes and breastfeeding relate to maternal weight and BMI-adjusted waist circumference 7 y after delivery?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Helene; Rasmussen, Kathleen M; Abrams, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    of breastfeeding are unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine how prepregnancy weight, gestational weight gain, postpartum weight changes, and breastfeeding influence maternal weight and body mass index-adjusted waist circumference (WCBMI) 7 y after delivery. DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study...

  4. Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Jaedicke

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing

  5. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future.......Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...

  6. Reduced brachial flow-mediated vasodilation in young adult ex extremely low birth weight preterm: a condition predictive of increased cardiovascular risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassareo, P P; Fanos, V; Puddu, M; Demuru, P; Cadeddu, F; Balzarini, M; Mercuro, G

    2010-10-01

    Sporadic data present in literature report how preterm birth and low birth weight constitute the risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases in later life. To assess the presence of potential alterations to endothelial function in young adults born preterm at extremely low birth weight (Cesarea, Israel). Endothelial function was significantly reduced in ex-ELBW subjects compared to C (1.94 +/- 0.37 vs. 2.68 +/- 0.41, p < 0.0001). Moreover, this function correlated significantly with gestational age (r = 0.56, p < 0.0009) and birth weight (r = 0.63, p < 0.0001). The results obtained reveal a significant decrease in endothelial function of ex-ELBW subjects compared to controls, underlining a probable correlation with preterm birth and low birth weight. Taken together, these results suggest that an ELBW may underlie the onset of early circulatory dysfunction predictive of increased cardiovascular risk.

  7. Changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Magdalena Micu, Dana; Cheval, Sorin

    2014-05-01

    The Carpathians are the largest, longest, most twisted and fragmented segment of the Alpine system, stretching between latitudes 44°N and 50°N, and longitudes 17°E and 27°E. This European mountain range is a climatically transitional region between major atmospheric circulation source areas of the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and continental Europe. The region is a European biodiversity hotspot, containing over one third of all European plant species. It is acknowledged that the mountain regions are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change than any other regions located at the same latitudes. Observational studies on the variability and trends of extreme events suggest an overall consensus towards a significant increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of warm extremes in most of these regions, including the Carpathians. 15 core indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), were computed in order to investigate the changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes, based on their known relevance for the infrastructure, human health and tourism activities in these mountains. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (www.carpatclim-eu.org) for the period 1961-2010. Changes in the annual temperature and precipitation extremes in the last five decades have been identified with the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test, at the 90% significance level (two-tail test). The results show decreasing trends in cold-related thermal indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. No consistent trend in precipitation extremes has been found. There is a generally uniform signal of significant increasing trends in the frequency of summer days across the Carpathians, with no obvious differences between

  8. Structural changes in the knee during weight loss maintenance after a significant weight loss in obese patients with osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, M; Christensen, R; Hunter, D J

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare structural knee joint changes in obese patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) that after an intensive weight loss therapy were randomized to continuous dietetic support, a specialized knee exercise program, or 'no attention' for 1 year. METHODS: 192 obese individuals with knee...... OA underwent an intensive 16-week weight loss program with subsequent randomization to one of the three treatment groups. Changes in cartilage loss, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), synovitis, and effusion were assessed using semi quantitative assessments of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) obtained...... at weeks 0 and 68 applying the BLOKS score. RESULTS: During the 52 weeks maintenance period the continuous dietary maintenance group support on average gained 1.1 kg (95% CI: -0.3:2.5) body mass, the exercise group gained 6.6 kg (95% CI 5.4:7.8) and the no-attention group gained 4.8 kg (95% CI: 2...

  9. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik;

    2014-01-01

    This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate past, present and future changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall for urban drainage systems. The performed analyses cover long historical precipitation records, observations from a high‐resolution rain‐gauge network, ...... and changes driven by the anthropogenic forcing is still to be better understood. However, the generated knowledge can assist the design of robust adaptation measures for changes in pluvial flood risk.......This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate past, present and future changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall for urban drainage systems. The performed analyses cover long historical precipitation records, observations from a high‐resolution rain‐gauge network...... are considered effects of anthropogenic climate change. The increase in precipitation extremes has led to inundations in most of the larger cities during the last 10 years. To establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods, robust projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events...

  10. Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

    2008-02-22

    Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

  11. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  12. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework.

  13. Spatial distribution of temperature extremes changes in Poland in 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

    2013-04-01

    There is a general agreement that changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather and climate events have profound impacts on both human society and the economy. In the recent years a numerous weather events have affected human health and caused enormous economic losses. A long-lasting heat waves influence society far more than rare occurred extreme high temperature. On the other hand a winter warming and frequent exceedance of 0°C during winter will be disruptive i.e. for the wheel transport and roads condition in Poland. This work is focused on the study of the spatial diversity of minimum and maximum temperature in 21st century in Poland. Firstly the shift in distribution (PDF) and cumulative distribution (CDF) of the daily maximum temperature in summer and minimum temperature in winter between control and scenario periods was compared among different part of the country. Secondly the changes in the characteristic percentiles of the temperature extremes were analyzed. Furthermore the spatial changes in the duration and frequency of the heat waves in Poland were studied. Moreover the future prediction of changes in characteristic days as hot days (Tmax≥30°C), summer days (Tmax≥25°C), tropical nights (Tmin≥20°C), frost days (Tmin<0°C), etc. were spatially compared. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is expected to change remarkably in 21st century depending on the area of Poland. The daily minimum and maximum 2-meter temperature date have been obtained from seven different regional climate models and corrected by quintile mapping method afterwards. The Polish station data for the control period have been gained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute.

  14. Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA under global climate change (2041-2070

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grossman-Clarke, Susanne

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Summer extreme heat events in the arid Phoenix, Arizona (USA metropolitan region for the period 2041-2070 are projected based on the ensemble of ten climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme heat events are identified by measures related to two thresholds of the maximum daily air temperature distribution for the historical reference period 1971-2000. Comparing this reference period to the model ensemble-mean, the frequency of extreme heat events is projected to increase by a factor of six to 1.9 events per summer and the average number of event days per year is projected to increase by a factor of 14. The inter-model range for the average number of EHE days per summer is larger for the projected climate, 10.6 to 42.2 days, than for simulations of the past climate simulations (1.5 to 2.4 days.

  15. Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2013-04-01

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions

  16. Seniors' body weight dissatisfaction and longitudinal associations with weight changes, anorexia of aging, and obesity: results from the NuAge Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Mathieu; Shatenstein, Bryna; Gaudreau, Pierrette; Morais, José A; Payette, Hélène

    2015-03-01

    We examined longitudinal associations between weight dissatisfaction, weight changes, anorexia of aging, and obesity among 1,793 seniors followed over 4 years between 2003 and 2009. Obesity prevalence (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30) and prevalence/incidence of weight dissatisfaction, anorexia of aging (self-reported appetite loss), and weight changes ≥5% were assessed. Predictors of weight loss ≥5%, anorexia of aging, and weight dissatisfaction were examined using logistic regressions. Half of seniors experienced weight dissatisfaction (50.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [48.1, 53.1]). Anorexia of aging and obesity prevalence was 7.0% (95% CI = [5.7, 8.3]) and 25.1% (95% CI = [22.9, 27.3]), whereas incidence of weight gain/loss ≥5% was 6.6% (95% CI = [1.3, 11.9]) and 8.8% (95% CI = [3.3, 14.3]). Weight gain ≥5% predicts men's subsequent weight dissatisfaction (odds ratio [OR] = 6.66, 95% CI = [2.06, 21.60]). No other association was observed. Weight dissatisfaction is frequent but not associated with subsequent eating disorders. In men, weight gain predicted weight dissatisfaction. Seniors' weight dissatisfaction does not necessarily equate weight changes. Due to its high prevalence, it is of public health interest to understand how seniors' weight dissatisfaction may impact health. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Laura J.; Yiou, Pascal; Hauser, Mathias; Lott, Fraser C.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Colfescu, Ioana; Dong, Buwen; Hegerl, Gabi; Shaffrey, Len; Sutton, Rowan

    2017-07-01

    Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation.

  18. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  19. Weight change, obesity and risk of prostate cancer progression among men with clinically localized prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerman, Barbra A; Ahearn, Thomas U; Giovannucci, Edward; Stampfer, Meir J; Nguyen, Paul L; Mucci, Lorelei A; Wilson, Kathryn M

    2017-09-01

    Obesity is associated with an increased risk of fatal prostate cancer. We aimed to elucidate the importance and relevant timing of obesity and weight change for prostate cancer progression. We identified 5,158 men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (clinical stage T1/T2) from 1986 to 2012 in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Men were followed for biochemical recurrence and lethal prostate cancer (development of distant metastasis or prostate cancer-specific mortality) until 2012. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for body mass index (BMI) at age 21, BMI at diagnosis, "long-term" weight change from age 21 to diagnosis and "short-term" weight change over spans of 4 and 8 years preceding diagnosis. Because weight, weight change and mortality are strongly associated with smoking, we repeated analyses among never smokers only (N = 2,559). Among all patients, neither weight change nor BMI (at age 21 or at diagnosis) was associated with lethal prostate cancer. Among never smokers, long-term weight gain was associated with an increased risk of lethal disease (HR for gaining >30 pounds vs. stable weight [±10 pounds] 1.59, 95% CI, 1.01-2.50, p-trend = 0.06). Associations between weight change, BMI and lethal prostate cancer were stronger for men with BMI ≥ 25 at age 21 compared to those with BMI obesity were not associated with an increased risk of biochemical recurrence. Our findings among never smoker men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer suggest a positive association between long-term weight gain and risk of lethal prostate cancer. Metabolic changes associated with weight gain may promote prostate cancer progression. © 2017 UICC.

  20. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.;

    2012-01-01

    for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal......Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... of average precipitation.In this paper, following an overview of some recent advances in the development of innovative methods for assessing the impacts of climate change on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics, several existing difficulties and remaining challenges in dealing...

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...... due to anthropogenic climate change, analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change, and implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. A summary is provided in this paper.......Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...

  2. Parent predictors of child weight change in family based behavioral obesity treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutelle, Kerri N; Cafri, Guy; Crow, Scott J

    2012-07-01

    Family based behavioral treatment for overweight and obese children includes parenting skills targeting the modification of child eating and activity change. The purpose of this study was to examine parenting skills and parent weight change as predictors of child weight change in a sample of 80 parent/child dyads who were enrolled in a family based behavioral weight loss program for childhood obesity. Eighty overweight and obese children and their parents who enrolled in treatment in two sites were included in the study. Variables included those related to parent modeling (parent BMI), home food environment, parenting (parent and child report), and demographics. Results suggested that parent BMI change was a significant predictor of child weight, in that a reduction of 1 BMI unit in the parent was associated with a 0.255 reduction in child BMI. None of the other variables were significant in the final model. This study is consistent with other research showing that parent weight change is a key contributor to child weight change in behavioral treatment for childhood obesity. Researchers and clinicians should focus on encouraging parents to lose weight to assist their overweight and obese child in weight management.

  3. Investigate the impact of climate change on daily extreme precipitation in the eastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Sivandran, G.

    2016-12-01

    Increase in heavy downpours have been observed across the U.S. An extreme index (the number of 2-day precipitation totals in a decade that exceeds a threshold corresponding to 5-year return period) has been shown to increase 30-70% in the eastern U.S. between the decades before 1960 and the 2001-2010 decade [Kunkel et al. 2013]. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve is a descriptive measure of extreme precipitation, and is commonly used to inform urban hydrological design. To understand how IDF curves are influenced by climate change is important for infrastructure planning and adaptation. As a first step towards this objective, this study investigates the potential changes in extreme precipitation at daily level over the eastern U.S. by a combination of statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches. The dynamical downscaling experiment is conducted with the Weather Forecast Model (Version 3.8), on the eastern U.S. domain and driven by a bias-corrected CMIP5 CESM dataset. The relationship between daily precipitation at coarse- and dynamically downscaled fine-grid levels are investigated using quantile-mapping and linear-regression methods with various calibration tweaks. The statistical relationship whose difference between future period and the historical baseline is comparable or smaller than the natural variability during 1950-2005 is then identified as not violating the stationarity assumption on the statistical relationship. The computationally cheaper identified statistical downscaling method is then used to downscale precipitation to station scale at National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network locations on the domain. In a future study, the downscaled daily precipitation will be disaggregated to hourly level by the k-Nearest Neighbor method, and thus to facilitate construction of IDF curves. Kunkel et al. 2013 Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge

  4. Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and

  5. Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation indices over India using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, K. Koteswara; Patwardhan, S. K.; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kamala, K.; Sabade, S. S.; Kumar, K. Krishna

    2014-02-01

    The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extremes of rainfall over India is investigated using a high resolution regional climate model PRECIS developed by Hadley Centre, UK. Five simulations of PRECIS made using the lateral boundary conditions from a suite of Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) generated using Hadley Center Coupled Model (HadCM3) for Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project corresponding to IPCC A1B emission scenario have been analyzed here for this purpose. The projected changes depict seasonally dependent fine scale structure in response to the topographic forcing and changes in circulation, especially along the west coast and North East (NE) region of India towards the end of the 21st century i.e. 2080s (2071-2098). Analysis of the extreme precipitation indices indicates an increase in the intensity of rainfall on wet days towards 2080s under A1B scenario. Changes in extreme precipitation events and dry spells suggest not only shifts, but also a substantial increase in the spread of the precipitation distribution, with an increased probability of the occurrence of events conducive to both floods and droughts. The projected changes in various precipitation extremes show a large regional variability. Total rainfall on very heavy rainy days (R95p) is projected to increase by around 40-50% over the central parts of the country. The number of rainy days > 10 mm (R10) may increase by 10-20% over west coast, east central India and northeastern parts while over northwest and rain shadow region they may increase by 40-50%. The consecutive dry days (CDDs) may decrease by 10-20% over Indo-Gangetic plain, however over west coast there may not be any significant change. The CDDs are projected to rise by 10-20% over west central and peninsular India. The precipitation per wet day (SDII) may be more intense by 10-40% over the entire land mass, however there may not be any significant change over south peninsular India.

  6. Perceived stress and freshman weight change: the moderating role of baseline body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Jessica A; Kuijer, Roeline G

    2015-02-01

    The transition from high-school to university is a critical period of weight change. Popular media suggest that freshman students gain 15 lb (6.80 kg) of body weight during their first year at university (i.e., the freshman 15). In contrast, a recent meta-analysis calculated freshman weight gain to be 1.75 kg, with statistics suggesting that only a proportion of freshman students are prone to gain weight. Researchers are beginning to investigate how certain variables and interactions between such variables predict freshman weight status. The current study focused on body mass index (BMI) and psychological stress. In isolation, previous research has tested how these two variables predict freshman student's weight status. However, because BMI and stress interact to predict weight gain and weight loss in adult samples, the current study tested the interaction between student's baseline BMI and baseline stress levels to predict weight change in a New Zealand sample of freshman students (N=65). Participants completed two separate online surveys in March and October 2012 (i.e., New Zealand's academic year). Although only three students gained over 6.80 kg (i.e., the freshman 15), participants did gain a statistically significant 1.10 kg of body weight during the year. Consistent with previous research, students with a higher baseline BMI gained a higher amount of body weight. However, this main effect was qualified by an interaction between stress and BMI. Students who entered university with high levels of stress gained weight if they also had high BMIs; if they had lower BMIs then they lost weight. In order to reduce unhealthy levels of freshman weight change, vulnerable students need to be taught stress-reduction techniques and coping strategies early in the academic year.

  7. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  8. Implications of dynamics underlying temperature and precipitation distributions for changes in extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Loikith, P. C.; Stechmann, S. N.; Sahany, S.; Bernstein, D. N.; Quinn, K. M.; Meyerson, J.; Hales, K.; Langenbrunner, B.

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing present-day probability distributions of temperature and precipitation measures are an important part of the pathway to improving quantitative assessment of changes in their extremes. In some cases, relatively simple prototypes for the dynamics underlying these distributions can assist in this characterization, pointing to key physical factors and measures to evaluate even in more complex distributions. In the case of daily temperature distributions, quantifying the widespread occurrence of non-Gaussian tails is motivated in part by tracer-advection across a maintained gradient prototypes. Substantial implications of the shape of these tails for regional changes in probabilities of temperature extremes with large-scale warming motivate measures of non-Gaussianity specific to this problem for assessing climate model present-day simulations. In the case of distributions of precipitation accumulations, simple prototypes yield insights into the form of the present-day distribution and predictions for the form of the global warming changes that can be evaluated in models and observations. Probability drops relatively slowly over a substantial range of accumulation size, followed by a key cutoff scale that limits large event probabilities in current climate but changes under global warming. Precipitation integrated over spatial clusters exhibits similar distribution features.

  9. Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

    2016-04-01

    In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

  10. Post-partum weight change patterns in the WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Adelheid W; Nommsen-Rivers, Laurie; Siyam, Amani; Borghi, Elaine; de Onis, Mercedes; Garza, Cutberto; Lartey, Anna; Baerug, Anne; Bhandari, Nita; Dewey, Kathryn G; Araújo, Cora Luiza; Mohamed, Ali Jaffer; Van den Broeck, Jan

    2011-07-01

    The interplay of factors that affect post-partum loss or retention of weight gained during pregnancy is not fully understood. The objective of this paper is to describe patterns of weight change in the six sites of the World Health Organization (WHO) Multicentre Growth Reference Study (MGRS) and explore variables that explain variation in weight change within and between sites. Mothers of 1743 breastfed children enrolled in the MGRS had weights measured at days 7, 14, 28 and 42 post-partum, monthly from 2 to 12 months and bimonthly thereafter until 24 months post-partum. Height, maternal age, parity and employment status were recorded and breastfeeding was monitored throughout the follow-up. Weight change patterns varied significantly among sites. Ghanaian and Omani mothers lost little or gained weight post-partum. In Brazil, India, Norway and USA, mothers on average lost weight during the first year followed by stabilization in the second year. Lactation intensity and duration explained little of the variation in weight change patterns. In most sites, obese mothers tended to lose less weight than normal-weight mothers. In Brazil and Oman, primiparous mothers lost about 1 kg more than multiparous mothers in the first 6 months. In India and Ghana, multiparous mothers lost about 0.6 kg more than primiparas in the second 6 months. Culturally defined mother-care practices probably play a role in weight change patterns among lactating women. This hypothesis should stimulate investigation into gestational weight gain and post-partum losses in different ethnocultural contexts.

  11. Changing precipitation extremes in a warming climate: A basis for design flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    The potential for increasing intensity of future rainfall events has significant implications for flooding and the design of infrastructure. However the questions of how precipitation will change in the future, how important these changes are to flooding, and how engineers incorporate these changes into hydrologic design remain as open questions. In the absence of reliable point based estimates of how precipitation will change, many studies investigate the historical relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature as a proxy for what may happen in a warmer climate. Much of the research to date has focussed on changing precipitation intensity, however, temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are just as important. Here we link higher temperatures to changes in temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation events. We show, using observed high quality precipitation records from Australia covering all major climatic zones, that storms are intensifying in both time and space resulting in a greater potential for flooding especially in urban locales around the world. Given that precipitation and antecedent conditions are changing, and, the impacts to flooding are significant, methods of incorporating these changes in catchment modelling are required. Continuous simulation offers a natural flexibility to incorporate the many correlated changes in precipitation that may occur in a future climate. An argument for such a framework using existing continuous simulation alternatives is articulated in concluding this presentation.

  12. Longitudinal changes in body composition in older men and women: role of body weight change and physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Virginia A; Frontera, Walter R; Roubenoff, Ronenn; Evans, William J; Singh, Maria A Fiatarone

    2002-08-01

    Estimates of body-composition change in older adults are mostly derived from cross-sectional data. We examined the natural longitudinal patterns of change in fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) in older adults and explored the effect of physical activity, weight change, and age on these changes. The body composition measured by hydrodensitometry and the level of sports and recreational activity (SRA) of 53 men and 78 women with a mean (+/-SD) initial age of 60.7 +/- 7.8 y were examined on 2 occasions separated by a mean (+/-SD) time of 9.4 +/- 1.4 y. FFM decreased in men (2.0% per decade) but not in women, whereas FM increased similarly in both sexes (7.5% per decade). Levels of SRA decreased more in men than in women over the follow-up period. Baseline age and level of SRA were inversely and independently associated with changes in FM in women only. Neither age nor level of SRA was associated with changes in FFM in men or women. Weight-stable subjects lost FFM. FFM accounted for 19% of body weight in those who gained weight, even in the presence of decreased levels of SRA. Loss of FFM (33% of body weight) was pronounced in those who lost weight, despite median SRA levels >4184 kJ/wk. On average, FM increased; however, the increase in women was attenuated with advancing age. The decrease in FFM over the follow-up period was small and masked the wide interindividual variation that was dependent on the magnitude of weight change. The contribution of weight stability, modest weight gains, or lifestyle changes that include regular resistance exercise in attenuating lean-tissue loss with age should be explored.

  13. The relationship between breastfeeding and postpartum weight change--a systematic review and critical evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, C E; McKinley, M C; Holmes, V A; Spence, D; Woodside, J V

    2014-04-01

    Pregnancy and the postpartum period is a time of increased vulnerability for retention of excess body fat in women. Breastfeeding (BF) has been shown to have many health benefits for both mother and baby; however, its role in postpartum weight management is unclear. Our aim was to systematically review and critically appraise the literature published to date in relation to the impact of BF on postpartum weight change, weight retention and maternal body composition. Electronic literature searches were carried out using MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, BIOSIS, CINAHL and British Nursing Index. The search covered publications up to 12 June 2012 and included observational studies (prospective and retrospective) carried out in BF mothers (either exclusively or as a subgroup), who were ≤ 2 years postpartum and with a body mass index (BMI) >18.5 kg m(-2), with an outcome measure of change in weight (including weight retention) and/or body composition. Thirty-seven prospective studies and eight retrospective studies were identified that met the selection criteria; studies were stratified according to study design and outcome measure. Overall, studies were heterogeneous, particularly in relation to sample size, measurement time points and in the classification of BF and postpartum weight change. The majority of studies reported little or no association between BF and weight change (n=27, 63%) or change in body composition (n=16, 89%), although this seemed to depend on the measurement time points and BF intensity. However, of the five studies that were considered to be of high methodological quality, four studies demonstrated a positive association between BF and weight change. This systematic review highlights the difficulties of examining the association between BF and weight management in observational research. Although the available evidence challenges the widely held belief that BF promotes weight loss, more robust studies are needed to reliably assess the

  14. Expected climate change impacts on extreme flows in Vietnam: The limits of bias correction techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laux, Patrick; Dang, Thinh; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    We investigate possible impacts of climate change on future floods in the VuGia-ThuBon river basin, central Vietnam using a multi-model climate ensemble. An ensemble of regional climate projections (SRES) derived from different combinations of global and regional climate models in combination with different emission scenarios are used. In order to correct for the biases between the modelled climate variables and the observations, different bias correction techniques such as linear scaling, local intensity scaling, and quantile mapping are applied to the RCM outputs. Bias-corrected and raw climate data are then used as input for the fully distributed hydrological water balance model WaSIM-ETH to reproduce discharge data at NongSon station. Annual maximum discharges are extracted from the modeled daily series from the control period (1980-1999) and the future periods 2011-2030, 2031-2050, and 2080-2099 for subsequent extreme frequency analyses. To derive flood frequency curves for the four time periods, the generalized extreme value probability distribution is fitted to the data. Our analysis shows that actually none of the bias correction approaches applied to the control runs of simulated precipitation data can satisfactorily correct their distributions towards those of the observations. Therefore, this study builds further on the delta change approach, which adjusts the observed extreme values by the derived signals from the hydrological simulations fed by raw future climate projections. Adjusted return periods of e.g. HQ100 values are calculated based on the delta change method. The results inhibit a remarkable variation among the different climate scenarios in representing extreme values. Results show that MRI-MRI, ECHAM3-REMO, HadCMQ10-HadRM3P and HadCMQ13-HadRM3P models always exhibit a positive signal for all considered time slices and climate change scenarios. On the other hand, CCSM-MM5 frequently shows a negative signal for all time slices. On average, an

  15. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  16. Extreme Hydrological Changes in the Western United States Drive Reductions in Water Supply by Mid Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagan, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi; Mei, Rui; Kendall, Donald; Pal, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    The Western United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. This study provides an integrated approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. A 10-member ensemble of coupled global climate models is dynamically downscaled forcing a regional and hydrological model resulting in a high-resolution 4-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). While precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity, which are evaluated by using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Standardized Precipitation Index and ratio of daily precipitation to annual precipitation. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation event events significantly increase in intensity and frequency. Return periods change such that extreme events in the future become much more common by mid-century. The largest changes occur in the Colorado River where the daily annual maximum runoff 100-year event, for example, becomes approximately ten times more likely and twice as likely in the other

  17. Extreme floods in the Mekong River Delta under climate change: combined impacts of upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Long; Nguyen Viet, Dung; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Koponen, Jorma; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Supit, Iwan; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-04-01

    Extreme floods cause huge damages to human lives and infrastructure, and hamper socio-economic development in the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam. Induced by climate change, upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise are expected to further exacerbate future flood hazard and thereby posing critical challenges for securing safety and sustainability. This paper provides a probabilistic quantification of future flood hazard for the Mekong Delta, focusing on extreme events under climate change. We developed a model chain to simulate separate and combined impacts of two drivers, namely upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise on flood magnitude and frequency. Simulation results show that upstream changes and sea level rise substantially increase flood hazard throughout the whole Mekong Delta. Due to differences in their nature, two drivers show different features in their impacts on floods. Impacts of upstream changes are more dominant in floodplains in the upper delta, causing an increase of up to +0.80 m in flood depth. Sea level rise introduces flood hazard to currently safe areas in the middle and coastal delta zones. A 0.6 m rise in relative sea level causes an increase in flood depth between 0.10 and 0.70 m, depending on location by 2050s. Upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise tend to intensify each other's impacts on floods, resulting in stronger combined impacts than linearly summed impacts of each individual driver. Substantial increase of future flood hazard strongly requires better flood protection and more flood resilient development for the Mekong Delta. Findings from this study can be used as quantified physical boundary conditions to develop flood management strategies and strategic delta management plans.

  18. Reliable Change in Depression during Behavioral Weight Loss Treatment among Women with Major Depression

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Andrew M.; Whited, Matthew C.; Appelhans, Bradley M.; Schneider, Kristin L; Waring, Molly E.; DeBiasse, Michele A.; Jessica L Oleski; Sybil L. Crawford; Pagoto, Sherry L.

    2013-01-01

    Although behavioral weight loss interventions generally have been shown to improve depressive symptoms, little is known as to whether some people with major depressive disorder experience worsening of depression during a weight loss intervention. We examined rates and predictors of change in depression symptoms among 148 obese women with major depressive disorder who participated in a trial comparing depression treatment plus behavioral weight loss treatment (Behavioral Activation; BA) to beh...

  19. Lifestyle Interventions Targeting Body Weight Changes during the Menopause Transition: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Janet Jull; Dawn Stacey; Sarah Beach; Alex Dumas; Irene Strychar; Lee-Anne Ufholz; Stephanie Prince; Joseph Abdulnour; Denis Prud’homme

    2014-01-01

    Objective. To determine the effectiveness of exercise and/or nutrition interventions and to address body weight changes during the menopause transition. Methods. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using electronic databases, grey literature, and hand searching. Two independent researchers screened for studies using experimental designs to evaluate the impact of exercise and/or nutrition interventions on body weight and/or central weight gain performed during the menopausa...

  20. Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang

    2017-04-01

    Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.

  1. Climate change and probabilistic scenario of streamflow extremes in an alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Wang, Xiaoyan; Yu, Zhongbo; Krysanova, Valentina; Chen, Xi; Schwartz, Franklin W.; Sudicky, Edward A.

    2014-07-01

    Future projections of streamflow extremes are of paramount significance in assessing the climate impacts on social and natural systems, particularly for the Himalayan alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau known as the Asian water tower. This study strives to quantify the uncertainties from different sources in simulating future extreme flows and seeks to construct reliable scenarios of future extreme flows for the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century. The results can be formulated as follows: (1) The revised snow model based on a daily active temperature method is superior to the commonly used degree-day method in simulating snowmelt processes. (2) In general, hydrological models contribute more uncertainties than the downscaling methods in high flow and low flow over the cryospheric alpine regions characterized by the snow-rainfall-induced runoff processes under most scenarios. Meanwhile, impacts to uncertainty vary with time. (3) The ultimate probability of high flow exhibits a downward trend in future by using an unconditional method, whereas positive changes in the probability of low flow are projected. The method in the work includes a variety of influence from different contributing factors (e.g., downscaling models, hydrological models, model parameters, and their simulation skills) on streamflow projection, therefore can offer more information (i.e., different percentiles of flow and uncertainty ranges) for future water resource planning compared with the purely deterministic approaches. Hence, the results are beneficial to boost our current methodologies of climate impact research in the Himalayan alpine zone.

  2. Climate change and probabilistic scenario of streamflow extremes in a cryospheric alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Gao, Cheng

    2015-04-01

    Future projections of streamflow extremes are of paramount significance in assessing the climate impacts on social and natural systems, particularly for the Himalayan alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau known as the Asian Water Tower. This study strives to quantify the uncertainties from different sources in simulating future extreme flows and seeks to construct reliable scenarios of future extreme flows for the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century. The results can be formulated as follows: (1) The revised snow model based on a daily active temperature method is superior to the commonly used degree-day method in simulating snowmelt processes. (2) In general, hydrological models contribute more uncertainties than the downscaling methods in high flow and low flow over the cryospheric alpine regions characterized by the snow-rainfall induced runoff processes under most scenarios. Meanwhile, impacts to uncertainty vary with time. (3) The ultimate probability of high-flow exhibits a downward trend in future by using an unconditional method, whereas positive changes in probability of low-flow are projected. The method in the work includes a variety of influence from different contributing factors (e.g. downscaling models, hydrological models, model parameters, and their simulation skills) on streamflow projection, therefore can offer more information (i.e. different percentiles of flow and uncertainty ranges) for future water resources planning compared with the purely deterministic approaches. Hence, the results are beneficial to boost our current methodologies of climate impact research in the Himalayan alpine zone.

  3. Changes in precipitation extremes in Brazil (Paraná River Basin)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandonadi, Leandro; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Fratianni, Simona; Zavattini, João Afonso

    2016-02-01

    This research was aimed at addressing aspects related to variation in the amount of precipitation during the period from 1986 to 2011 in the Paraná River Hydrographical Basin, Brazil, for 32 meteorological stations using 11 climate indices created by the ETCCDI (Expert Team, ET, on Climate Change Detection and Indices, ETCCDI). The daily rainfall data were organized in spreadsheets, which were subjected to an intense quality control and an accurate historical research. For each pluviometric index, we have estimated the trends and the statistical significant of the slopes have been calculated. The results confirm that an increase in total precipitation in almost all analyzed stations was registered, and the extreme precipitations were the main contributors to such additions. In fact, the significant increase in total annual rainfall in north-central sector of the basin are related to higher rates of heavy rain, mainly above 95th percentile, as well as to the highest event of rainfall above 10 mm. Instead the northern part of the region, showed declining trends of extreme rainfall, caused mainly by the reduction in the rainfall occurrences over 95th percentile. In order to evaluate the impact that the increasing extreme rainfall may cause in large urban centers, we have investigated the data of two municipalities (Curitiba, PR and Goiânia, GO-Brazil), where the positive trend can cause inconvenience to the population (floods and inundations) suggesting, at least, the need of implementation of more effective urban planning for the future.

  4. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  5. Lymphaticovenous bypass decreases pathologic skin changes in upper extremity breast cancer-related lymphedema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrisi, Jeremy S; Joseph, Walter J; Ghanta, Swapna; Cuzzone, Daniel A; Albano, Nicholas J; Savetsky, Ira L; Gardenier, Jason C; Skoracki, Roman; Chang, David; Mehrara, Babak J

    2015-03-01

    Recent advances in microsurgery such as lymphaticovenous bypass (LVB) have been shown to decrease limb volumes and improve subjective symptoms in patients with lymphedema. However, to date, it remains unknown if these procedures can reverse the pathological tissue changes associated with lymphedema. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze skin tissue changes in patients before and after LVB. Matched skin biopsy samples were collected from normal and lymphedematous limbs of 6 patients with unilateral breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema before and 6 months after LVB. Biopsy specimens were fixed and analyzed for inflammation, fibrosis, hyperkeratosis, and lymphangiogenesis. Six months following LVB, 83% of patients had symptomatic improvement in their lymphedema. Histological analysis at this time demonstrated a significant decrease in tissue CD4(+) cell inflammation in lymphedematous limb (but not normal limb) biopsies (pskin. These findings suggest that the some of the pathologic changes of lymphedema are reversible and may be related to lymphatic fluid stasis.

  6. Association Between FTO Variant and Change in Body Weight and Its Interaction With Dietary Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vimaleswaran, Karani S; Angquist, Lars; Hansen, Rikke D;

    2012-01-01

    of being a weight-gainer (OR: 1.1; P = 0.045). We observed no interaction between FTO-rs9939609 and dietary fat, protein and carbohydrate, and GI on BMI and WC at baseline or on change in weight and WC. FTO-rs9939609 is associated with BMI and WC at baseline, but association with weight gain is weak......Although FTO is an established obesity-susceptibility locus, it remains unknown whether it influences weight change in adult life and whether diet attenuates this association. Therefore, we investigated the association of FTO-rs9939609 with changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) during 6.......8 years follow-up in a large-scale prospective study and examined whether these associations were modified by dietary energy percentage from fat, protein, carbohydrate, or glycemic index (GI). This study comprised data from five countries of European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition...

  7. Regional climate extremes in Northern Eurasia associated with atmospheric blockings: Interannual variations and tendencies of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I.; Akperov, M.; Lupo, A. R.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Timazhev, A.

    2011-12-01

    Large regional climate anomalies associated with atmospheric blockings have been noted during last years in Northern Eurasia. Impact of blockings is exhibited in such extremes as heat and cold waves, droughts, and forest fires. In order to detect changes in the blocking activity characteristics an analysis of different data for the Northern Hemisphere with the use of various methods for blockings detection was carried out. In particular, the data for 500 hPa geopotential from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (1948-2010) and NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2 (1871-2008) have been used as well as climate model simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries with anthropogenic forcing. Special attention is paid to the analysis of extreme dry conditions in the Northern Eurasia regions and to the 2010 Russian heat wave associated to atmospheric blockings with the use observational data (1891-2010) for surface air temperature, precipitation and different indices for the drought conditions. Tendencies of change and interannual variations are analyzed with an assessment of effects of El-Nino/La-Nina phenomena. Possibility of intensification of blocking-associated climate impacts under global warming is discussed. Changes of blocking characteristics and associated regional climate anomalies in the 21st century based on model simulations with anthropogenic scenarios are analyzed.

  8. Horsing Around with Climate: Effect of Technology-Driven Landuse Change on Extreme Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sines, T. R.; Arritt, R. W.

    2016-12-01

    The shift from work animals such as horses to mechanized labor and transport led to a decrease in acreage devoted to small grains (primarily oats) in the United States. Land formerly devoted to these crops was converted mostly to soybeans, which saw a forty-fold increase in planted acreage from 1940 to present. The same period saw an increase in extreme precipitation over the continental United States. We investigate possible connections between this agricultural landuse modification and precipitation changes in the central United States using the WRF-ARW model coupled with the Community Land Model. Crop acreages for maize, soybean, winter wheat, spring wheat, and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed for 1940-2010 using county-level data. This landuse was then used as surface input for two regional climate simulations, one using constant 1940s landuse and another using constant 2010 landuse. The landuse change was found to produce a shift in the precipitation intensity spectrum, with simulations using 2010 landuse having higher frequencies for heavier precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s landuse. The break point for this shift corresponded to daily precipitation of about 24 mm. This indicates that agricultural landuse change has contributed to the observed trend in extreme precipitation, increasing the frequency of heavy daily rainfall.

  9. Tracking Change in rapid and eXtreme Development: A Challenge to SCM-tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2001-01-01

    the tool does its job, change descriptions must be memorised until your next check-in, etc. This kind of overhead and disruption does not fit well with fast-paced development processes like rapid prototyping, explorative programming, and eXtreme Programming that favour creativity, speed, and communication......Software configuration management (SCM) has proved to be an invaluable part of developing and maintaining high quality software. The benefits are not for free however: SCM tool operations often divert your attention from your development task, sometimes you have to endure a long waiting time while...

  10. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

    2010-04-23

    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  11. Using scaling fluctuation analysis to quantify anthropogenic changes in regional and global precipitation, including extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    Anthropic precipitation changes affect the mean and the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, and therefore potentially have severe consequences in all aspects of human life. Unfortunately, - unlike the anthropic temperature changes - precipitation changes of anthropic origin have been proven difficult to establish with high statistical significance. For example, when changes have been established for individual precipitation products, the serious divergences found between products reflect our limited ability to estimate areal precipitation even at global scales. In addition to data issues, the usual approaches to assessing changes in precipitation also have methodological issues that hamper their identification. Here we discuss how the situation can be clarified by the systematic application of scaling fluctuation analysis - for example, to determine the scales at which the anthropogenic signal exceeds the natural variability noise (we find that it is roughly 20 years). Following a recent approach for estimating anthropogenic temperature changes we directly determine the effective sensitivity of the precipitation rate to a doubling of CO2. The novelty in this approach is that it takes CO2 as a surrogate for all anthropogenic forcings and estimates the trend based on the forcing rather than time - the usual approach. This leads both to an improved signal to noise ratio and, when compared to the usual estimates of trends, it augments their statistical significance; we further improve the signal to noise ratio by considering precipitation over the ocean where anthropogenic increases are strongest, finding that there are statistically significant trends at the 3 to 4 standard deviation level. This approach also permits the first direct estimate of the increases in global precipitation with temperature: we find 1.71±0.62 %/K which is close to that found by GCM's (2 - 3%/K) and is well below the value of ≈ 6 - 7%/K predicted on the basis of increases in humidity

  12. Projected changes to surface wind characteristics and extremes over North America in CRCM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the tendency of wind speed and direction have significant implications for long-term water cycle, air pollution, arid and semiarid environments, fire activity, and wind energy production. Furthermore, changes in wind extremes have direct impacts on buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, power lines, and trees. This study evaluates projected changes to wind speed characteristics (i.e., seasonal and annual mean, seasonal and diurnal cycles, directional distribution, and extreme events) for the future 2071-2100 period, with respect to the current 1981-2010 period over North America, using four different simulations from the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) with two driving GCMs under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CRCM5 simulates the climatology of mean sea level pressure gradient and associated wind direction over North America well when compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The CRCM5 also reproduces properly the spatial distributions of observed seasonal and annual mean wind speeds obtained from 611 meteorological stations across North America. The CRCM5 simulations generally suggest an increase in future mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, due to a decrease of future mean sea level pressure and more intense low pressure air circulation systems already situated in those regions such as Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed as extreme wind speed is influenced more by regional-scale features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The CRCM5 simulations suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of wind speed, mainly due to changes in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum wind speed. However, the projected changes vary in spatial pattern with the driving GCM fields and emission scenarios

  13. Reprogramming the body weight set point by a reciprocal interaction of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc gene expression reverts extreme obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavaljit H. Chhabra

    2016-10-01

    Conclusions: Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc−/− mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body weight set point was restored to control levels. In contrast, massively obese and hyperleptinemic ArcPomc−/− mice or those weight-matched and treated with PASylated leptin to maintain extreme hyperleptinemia prior to Pomc reactivation converged to an intermediate set point relative to lean control and obese ArcPomc−/− mice. We conclude that restoration of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc expression is necessary for obese ArcPomc−/− mice to achieve and sustain normal metabolic homeostasis; whereas deficits in either parameter set a maladaptive allostatic balance that defends increased adiposity and body weight.

  14. Tackling air pollution and extreme climate changes in China: Implementing the Paris climate change agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambo, Ernest; Duo-Quan, Wang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2016-10-01

    China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese

  15. Nut intake and 5-year changes in body weight and obesity risk in adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freisling, Heinz; Noh, Hwayoung; Slimani, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: There is inconsistent evidence regarding the relationship between higher intake of nuts, being an energy-dense food, and weight gain. We investigated the relationship between nut intake and changes in weight over 5 years. METHODS: This study includes 373,293 men and women, 25-70 years ol...

  16. Prospective weight change and colon cancer risk in male US health professionals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Grønbaek, Morten; Johansen, Christoffer;

    2008-01-01

    year during follow-up from 1986 to 2004. Updated weight change between consecutive questionnaires during follow-up and recalled weight gain since age 21 was evaluated. All eligible men were cancer-free at baseline. Proportional hazard and restricted spline regression models were implemented. Over an 18...

  17. Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roswall, Nina; Ängquist, Lars; Ahluwalia, Tarun Veer Singh

    2014-01-01

    between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weightweight), waist circumference (ΔWC...

  18. Parental perception of child's weight status and subsequent BMIz change: The KOALA birth cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, S.M.P.L.; Gubbels, J.S.; Dagnelie, P.C.; Kremers, S.P.J.; Stafleu, A.; Vries, N.K. de; Thijs, C.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Parents often fail to correctly perceive their children's weight status, but no studies have examined the association between parental weight status perception and longitudinal BMIz change (BMI standardized to a reference population) at various ages. We investigated whether parents are a

  19. Body weight changes during the menstrual cycle among university students in Ahvaz, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghighizadeh, Mohammad Hossein; Karandish, Majid; Ghoreishi, Mahdiye; Soroor, Farshad; Shirani, Fatemeh

    2014-07-01

    Weight changes during menstrual cycle may be a cause of concern about body weight among most women. Limited data are available linking menstrual cycle and body weight changes. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between menstrual cycles and body weight changes among university students in Ahvaz, Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 50 Iranian female students aged 18-24 years. Anthropometric indices were measured according to standard protocols. During a complete menstrual cycle, weights of participants were measured each morning. Seventy eight percent of participants had normal weight (Body Mass Index: 18.5-24.9 kg m(-2)). Body weight increased only slightly during the three days before beginning of the menstruation. By using repeated-measures ANOVA, no statistically significant differences were found in weigh during menstrual cycle (p-value = 0.301). No statistically significant changes were found in body weight during women's menstrual cycle in a group of healthy non-obese Iranian young women. Further studies on overweight and obese women are suggested.

  20. Yogurt consumption is associated with longitudinal changes of body weight and waist circumference: the framingham study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yogurt, as a low-fat, nutrient-dense dairy product, may be beneficial in preventing weight gain. We aimed to examine the longitudinal association between yogurt consumption and annualized change in weight and waist circumference (WC) among adults. We included 3,285 adults (11,169 observations) parti...

  1. Relationship of night and shift work with weight change and lifestyle behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, M.B.M.; Koppes, L.L.J.; Rodenburg, W.; Steeg, H. van; Proper, K.I.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To prospectively study the association of night and shift work with weight change and lifestyle behaviors. Methods: Workers participating in the Netherlands Working Conditions Cohort Study (2008 and 2009) (N = 5951) reported night and shift work, weight and height. Groups included stable

  2. Outcome of gastric surgery for morbid obesity: weight changes and personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, R H; Legorreta, G

    1991-01-01

    This controlled study explores weight change in relation to certain personality and behavioural characteristics in a population of morbidly obese individuals who have undergone a gastric procedure to lose weight. In particular, measures of alexithymia and symbolic function were used, and the results of the study indicate that these concepts are particularly helpful in understanding obese individuals, and aetiology and treatment of their condition.

  3. Change in Diet, Physical Activity, and Body Weight in Female College Freshman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Scott M.; Black, David R.; Blue, Carolyn L.; Gretebeck, Randall J.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To examine diet, physical activity, and body-weight changes associated with relocation from home to university. Methods: Diet, fitness/physical activity, body-weight parameters and self-efficacy were assessed among 54 freshman women upon college entry and 5 months later. Results: Although caloric intake significantly decreased, a…

  4. Relationship of night and shift work with weight change and lifestyle behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, M.B.M.; Koppes, L.L.J.; Rodenburg, W.; Steeg, H. van; Proper, K.I.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To prospectively study the association of night and shift work with weight change and lifestyle behaviors. Methods: Workers participating in the Netherlands Working Conditions Cohort Study (2008 and 2009) (N = 5951) reported night and shift work, weight and height. Groups included stable

  5. Significant progression of load on the musculoskeletal system with extremely high loads, with rapid weekly weight gains, using the Anatoly Gravitational System, in a 10-week training period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burke DT

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available David T Burke,1 David Tran,1 Di Cui,1 Daniel P Burke,2 Samir Al-Adawi,3 Atsu SS Dorvlo41Emory University Medical School, Atlanta, GA, USA; 2Georgia College and State University, GA, USA; 3Department of Behavioral Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman; 4Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, OmanAbstract: In an age of increasing numbers of lifestyle diseases and plasticity of longevity, exercise and weight training have been increasingly recognized as both preventing and mitigating the severity of many illnesses. This study was designed to determine whether significant weight-lifting gains could be realized through the Anatoly Gravitational System. Specifically, this study sought to determine whether this once-weekly weight-training system could result in significant weekly strength gains during a 10-week training period. A total of 50 participants, ranging in age from 17 to 67 years, completed at least 10 weekly 30-minute training sessions. The results suggest participants could, on average, double their weight-lifting capacity within 10 sessions. This preliminary study, which would require further scrutiny, suggests the Anatoly Gravitational System provides a rather unique opportunity to load the musculoskeletal system with extremely high loads, with rapid weekly weight gains, using only short weekly training sessions. More studies are warranted to scrutinize these findings.Keywords: Anatoly Gravitational System, weight training, musculoskeletal system

  6. Seasonal changes in meat weight and biochemical composition in the Black Clam Villorita cyprinoides (Grey)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ansari, Z.A.; Parulekar, A.H.; Matondkar, S.G.P.

    Seasonal changes in meat weight and biochemical composition are associated with reproduction, storage and utilization of reserves. The main period of increase in biochemical constituents corresponds to gametogenesis and maturation of gonads just...

  7. Extreme waves from Nortes and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Hernández-Lasheras, Jaime; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael

    2017-04-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Gulf of Mexico are a result from the incidence of tropical cyclones and anticyclone systems known as Nortes. While the waves derived from tropical cyclones have devastating consequences but a low probability of occurrence, Nortes are a frequent phenomenon producing disruptions of maritime activities during autumn/winter months. In this study we present an assessment of the waves generated by Nortes and the effects of a warming climate. To do so, we first developed a methodology to identify Norte events and classify them according to their effect over the sea state. A new index is proposed to identify events, which was used to identify events in the present and future climates. A third generation wave model was run for each of the events identified in the CFSR reanalysis and the CMIP5 model CNRM-M5 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Nortes were classified into 5 types, using both principal component analysis and a cluster analysis by k-means over the computed wave power of the individual events. An assessment of the effect of climate change was performed over the different Norte types, which indicated that climate change will result in less frequent events of higher intensity and more frequent mild events. This may provide a relief for coastal and marine operations, in relation to downtimes due to extreme wave conditions, so that the operational design of maritime structures could consider a lower occurrence of extreme events as a result of Nortes. While the results are not conclusive due to the uncertainty imposed by Global Circulation Models, this study provides the methodology to perform the assessment on other models to reduce uncertainty.

  8. Changes in Wind Speed and Extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 Based on Homogenized Observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Zhen; YAN Zhongwei; TU Kai; LIU Weidong; WANG Yingchun

    2011-01-01

    Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26,-0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

  9. Climate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in an alpine grassland of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zengyun; Li, Qingxiang; Chen, Xi; Teng, Zhidong; Chen, Changchun; Yin, Gang; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-11-01

    The natural ecosystem in Central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to the arid and semiarid climate variations, especially the climate extreme events. However, the climate extreme events in this area are still unclear. Therefore, this study analyzed the climate variability in the temperature and precipitation extreme events in an alpine grassland (Bayanbuluk) of Central Asia based on the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation from 1958 to 2012. Statistically significant ( p < 0.01) increasing trends were found in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature at annual, and seasonal time scales except the winter maximum temperature. In the seasonal changes, the winter temperature had the largest contribution to the annual warming. Further, there appeared increasing trends for the warm nights and the warm days and decreasing trends for the cool nights and the cool days at a 99 % confidence level. These trends directly resulted in an increasing trend for the growing season length (GSL) which could have positively influence on the vegetation productivity. For the precipitation, it displayed an increasing trend for the annual precipitation although it was not significant. And the summer precipitation had the same variations as the annual precipitation which indicated that the precipitation in summer made the biggest contribution to the annual precipitation than the other three seasons. The winter precipitation had a significant increasing trend (1.49 mm/10a) and a decreasing trend was found in spring. We also found that the precipitation of the very wet days mainly contributes to the annual precipitation with the trend of 4.5 mm/10a. The maximum 1-day precipitation and the heavy precipitation days only had slight increasing trend. A sharp decreasing trend was found before the early 1980s, and then becoming increase for the above three precipitation indexes. The climate experienced a warm-wet abrupt climate change in the 1980s

  10. Nutritional status changes in humans during a 14-day saturation dive: the NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations V project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Scott M.; Davis-Street, Janis E.; Fesperman, J. Vernell; Smith, Myra D.; Rice, Barbara L.; Zwart, Sara R.

    2004-01-01

    Ground-based analogs of spaceflight are an important means of studying physiologic and nutritional changes associated with space travel, and the NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations V (NEEMO) is such an analog. To determine whether saturation diving has nutrition-related effects similar to those of spaceflight, we conducted a clinical nutritional assessment of the NEEMO crew (4 men, 2 women) before, during, and after their 14-d saturation dive. Blood and urine samples were collected before, during, and after the dive. The foods consumed by the crew were typical of the spaceflight food system. A number of physiologic changes were observed, during and after the dive, that are also commonly observed during spaceflight. Hemoglobin and hematocrit were lower (P < 0.05) after the dive. Transferrin receptors were significantly lower immediately after the dive. Serum ferritin increased significantly during the dive. There was also evidence indicating that oxidative damage and stress increased during the dive. Glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase decreased during and after the dive (P < 0.05). Decreased leptin during the dive (P < 0.05) may have been related to the increased stress. Subjects had decreased energy intake and weight loss during the dive, similar to what is observed during spaceflight. Together, these similarities to spaceflight provide a model to use in further defining the physiologic effects of spaceflight and investigating potential countermeasures.

  11. Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan C; Barichivich, William J; Brown, Mary E

    2013-03-11

    The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change-that of extreme variation in precipitation-may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall "pulses" are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  12. The motivation to be sedentary predicts weight change when sedentary behaviors are reduced

    OpenAIRE

    Paluch Rocco A; Cavanaugh Meghan D; Roemmich James N; Epstein Leonard H

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Obesity is correlated with a sedentary lifestyle, and the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with obesity. The present study tests the hypothesis that the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with weight change when children reduce their sedentary behavior. Methods The motivation to be active or sedentary, changes in weight, and accelerometer assessed physical activity were collected for 55 families with overweight/obese children who participa...

  13. Evaluating past change of extreme rainfall over Taiwan using a standardized index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu-Shiang, T.

    2016-12-01

    The climate variability of the annual daily maximum precipitation (rx1day) is sensitive to outliers and difficult to assess. In view of this, we present a statistical methodology, which follows the cumulative density function (CDF) on the parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, to standardize the rx1day by a probability index (PI) in space-time. We show that a strong relationship exists between the indices and associated PIs of the observed station records and gridded dataset at area-mean. Based on these verifications, no distinct linear trend was found before the end of the 20th century over western Taiwan, but a climate regime change appeared during 2002-2003. We also present the dual change effects from both the variance and linear trend of extreme events over the northeastern and southern parts of Taiwan, along with the island's central and southern mountainous regions. From the 16 models of the Couple Model Intercomparison Projects Phase-5 (CMIP5), we evaluate the climate variability of PIs on present (ALL) and future (RCP45 and RCP85) scenarios. In the 21st century, the high confidence level in RCP85 shows that the PI increases 10% during the first half of the century. By the end of the century, it is projected to reach 14%, despite current climate fluctuations being smaller than actual observations.

  14. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, M.

    2016-12-01

    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  15. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  16. Characterizing long-term patterns of weight change in China using latent class trajectory modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Paynter

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, obesity-related diseases have increased tremendously in China, and are now the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Patterns of weight change can be used to predict risk of obesity-related diseases, increase understanding of etiology of disease risk, identify groups at particularly high risk, and shape prevention strategies.Latent class trajectory modeling was used to compute weight change trajectories for adults aged 18 to 66 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS data (n = 12,611. Weight change trajectories were computed separately for males and females by age group at baseline due to differential age-related patterns of weight gain in China with urbanization. Generalized linear mixed effects models examined the association between weight change trajectories and baseline characteristics including urbanicity, BMI category, age, and year of study entry.Trajectory classes were identified for each of six age-sex subgroups corresponding to various degrees of weight loss, maintenance and weight gain. Baseline BMI status was a significant predictor of trajectory membership for all age-sex subgroups. Baseline overweight/obesity increased odds of following 'initial loss with maintenance' trajectories. We found no significant association between baseline urbanization and trajectory membership after controlling for other covariates.Trajectory analysis identified patterns of weight change for age by gender groups. Lack of association between baseline urbanization status and trajectory membership suggests that living in a rural environment at baseline was not protective. Analyses identified age-specific nuances in weight change patterns, pointing to the importance of subgroup analyses in future research.

  17. Comparison of weight changes following unilateral and staged bilateral STN DBS for advanced PD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eric M; Kurundkar, Ashish; Cutter, Gary R; Huang, He; Guthrie, Barton L; Watts, Ray L; Walker, Harrison C

    2011-09-01

    Unilateral and bilateral subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN DBS) in Parkinson's disease (PD) result in weight gain in the initial postoperative months, but little is known about the changes in weight following unilateral and staged bilateral STN DBS over longer time intervals. A case-control comparison evaluated weight changes over 2 years in 43 consecutive unilateral STN DBS patients, among whom 25 elected to undergo staged bilateral STN DBS, and 21 age-matched and disease severity matched PD controls without DBS. Regression analyses incorporating age, gender, and baseline weight in case or control were conducted to assess weight changes 2 years after the initial unilateral surgery. Unilateral STN DBS and staged bilateral STN DBS patients gained 3.9 ± 2.0 kg and 5.6 ± 2.1 kg versus their preoperative baseline weight (P weight gain in staged bilateral STN DBS patients versus unilateral patients, we found no evidence for an equivalent or synergistic increase in body weight following placement of the second DBS electrode.

  18. Neuropeptides and anticipatory changes in behaviour and physiology: seasonal body weight regulation in the Siberian hamster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Julian G; Tups, Alexander

    2003-11-01

    The Siberian hamster, Phodopus sungorus, is a powerful model of physiological body weight regulation. This seasonal model offers the potential to distinguish between the compensatory neuroendocrine systems that defend body weight against imposed negative energy balance, and those that are involved in the programming of the level of body weight that will be defended-a seasonally appropriate body weight. Of the known, studied, components of the hypothalamic energy balance system, the anorexogenic peptide, cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART), is the only candidate where gene expression changes in a manner consistent with a role in initiating or sustaining photoperiod-induced differences in body weight trajectory. Siberian hamsters effect a reversible biannual switch in leptin sensitivity in which only short day (SD)-acclimated hamsters that have undergone a reduction in body weight, adiposity and plasma leptin are sensitive to peripheral exogenous leptin. The suppressor of cytokine signalling protein, SOCS3, appears to be the molecular correlate of this seasonal sensitivity.

  19. Genetic and environmental relationships between change in weight and insulin resistance: the Healthy Twin Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yun-Mi; Lee, Kayoung; Sung, Joohon

    2014-06-01

    We aimed to investigate the association between weight change from 20 years of age and insulin resistance (IR), and genetic and environmental relationships between these traits. In 594 Korean twins and family members (209 men, 385 women, 44.0 ± 10.8 years old), the percentage of weight change was calculated using self-reported body weight at 20 years of age and currently measured bodyweight. IR traits were assessed using fasting plasma glucose and insulin, the homeostasis model assessment of IR index (HOMA-IR), and the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI). Linear mixed analysis was applied after adjusting for household, body mass index (BMI) at the age of 20 years, age, sex, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, and caloric intake. Heritabilities and genetic and environmental correlations were estimated after adjusting for covariates. In 55 monozygotic twin pairs discordant for HOMA-IR level by >0.3, a conditional logistic regression analysis was conducted regarding weight change. Increases in glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR and a decrease in QUICKI were associated with a higher percentage of weight change (p change since 20 years old, after adjusting for lifestyle-related factors. In conclusion, both genetic and environmental influences played significant roles in the positive association between weight change from 20 years of age and IR.

  20. Shared weight and dietary changes in parent-child dyads following family-based obesity treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, John R; Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Mockus-Valenzuela, Danyte S; Stein, Richard I; Epstein, Leonard H; Wilfley, Denise E

    2016-01-01

    The primary objective was to determine whether children and their participating parents undergoing family-based behavioral treatment (FBT) for obesity show similar dietary changes following treatment, and if so, whether these shared dietary changes explain the similarity in weight change within the parent-child dyad. Data come from a randomized controlled trial of 148 parent-child dyads who completed FBT and were followed over a 2-year maintenance phase. Energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods ("RED" foods) and fruit and vegetable intake were assessed across time. Maintenance of lower RED food intake following FBT predicted weight maintenance in children and in parents (ps < .01), and dietary and weight changes were correlated within parent-child dyads (ps < .01). Most interesting, the similarity in long-term weight maintenance between children and their parents was predicted by the similarity in long-term changes in RED food intake between children and their parents (p < .001). These findings point to the important role of maintaining low energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake for long-term weight maintenance in children and parents. Furthermore, these results suggest that the correlation between parent and child weight maintenance can be explained in part by similar long-term changes in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Association Between Use of Cannabis in Adolescence and Weight Change into Midlife

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jin, Lexie Zhiyan; Rangan, Anna; Mehlsen, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Cannabis use has been found to stimulate appetite and potentially promote weight gain via activation of the endocannabinoid system. Despite the fact that the onset of cannabis use is typically during adolescence, the association between adolescence cannabis use and long-term change in body weight...... is generally unknown. This study aims to examine the association between adolescence cannabis use and weight change to midlife, while accounting for the use of other substances. The study applied 20 to 22 years of follow-up data on 712 Danish adolescents aged between 15 and 19 years at baseline. Self......-reported height and weight, cannabis, cigarette and alcohol use, socioeconomic status (SES) and physical activity levels were assessed in baseline surveys conducted in 1983 and 1985. The follow-up survey was conducted in 2005. In total 19.1% (n = 136) of adolescents reported having used/using cannabis. Weight...

  2. Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

  3. 76 FR 38360 - Workshop-Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop--Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open Public Workshop AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data,...

  4. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Wheaton

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production, but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.

  5. Long-term weight changes in obese young adult men and subsequent all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, E; Berentzen, T L; Ängquist, Lars Henrik

    2013-01-01

    ). All the obese and half the controls were re-examined between 4 and 40 years later (mean age 35 years). Weight changes were defined as: weight loss 0.1 kg m(-2) per year. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression.RESULTS:Among the 908 obese and 1073...... controls followed for 30 years after re-examination 220 and 232 died. HR of the weight stable obese was 2.32 (CI: 1.56-3.44) compared with the weight stable controls. In the obese cohort there was no association between weight loss, adjusted for initial BMI, and mortality (HR: 0.99; CI: 0.68-1.45) compared......BACKGROUND:Although the expectation is that weight gain increases mortality and weight loss among those overweight reduces mortality, results on weight gain and mortality in young adults are conflicting, and weight loss is less explored. We investigated the association between long-term weight...

  6. Weight change in older adults and mortality: the Multiethnic Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, S-Y; Wilkens, L R; Maskarinec, G; Haiman, C A; Kolonel, L N; Marchand, L L

    2017-08-14

    To investigate the association between weight change in older adults and mortality in a multiethnic population. We performed a prospective analysis using data on weight change between the baseline (1993-1996) and the 10-year follow-up (2003-2007) surveys in relation to subsequent mortality among 63 040 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort Study in Hawaii and California. The participants were African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, Latino and white, aged 45-75 years at baseline, and did not report heart disease or cancer at either survey. During an average of 7.3 years of follow-up after the 10-year survey, 6623 deaths were identified. Compared with individuals whose weight remained stable (±2.5 kg), those who lost weight and those with the highest weight gain (>10 kg) were at increased risk of all-cause mortality, with the risks greater for the weight loss (hazard ratios (HR): 2.86; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.62-3.11 for >10 kg) than the weight-gain group (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.11-1.41 for >10 kg), thus resulting in a reverse J-shaped curve. Japanese Americans and Latinos had stronger associations of weight loss >10 kg with mortality than did African Americans, Native Hawaiians and whites. The increase in risk with weight gain >10 kg was greater for older (⩾55 years at baseline) than younger individuals, whereas the increase in mortality associated with weight loss was greater for the normal weight (weight change and a higher mortality in a healthy, multiethnic population, with higher risks for weight loss than weight gain. On the basis of these observations, public health recommendation should focus on the prevention of weight loss, as well as weight stability within the non-obese range, for middle-aged and older adults.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 5 September 2017; doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.188.

  7. Estimates of genetic parameters and genetic change for reproduction, weight, and wool characteristics of Targhee sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanford, K J; Van Vleck, L D; Snowder, G D

    2003-03-01

    positive and small. Estimated breeding values averaged by year of birth from both the single- and seven-trait analyses for the prolificacy and weight traits increased over time, whereas those for fleece weight decreased slightly and those for the other wool traits were unchanged. Estimated changes in breeding values over time did not differ substantially for the single-trait and seven-trait analyses, except for traits highly correlated with another trait that was responding to selection.

  8. Estimates of genetic parameters and genetic change for reproduction, weight, and wool characteristics of Columbia sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanford, K J; Van Vleck, L D; Snowder, G D

    2002-12-01

    breeding values averaged by year of birth from both the single-trait and multiple-trait analyses for the prolificacy and weight traits increased over time, but were unchanged for the wool traits. Estimated changes in breeding values over time did not differ substantially for single-trait and multiple-trait analyses, except for traits highly correlated with another trait that was responding to selection.

  9. Scaling and Intensification of Extreme Precipitation in High-Resolution Climate Change Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Climate change projections of extreme precipitation are of great interest due to hydrological impacts such as droughts, floods, erosion, landslides and debris flows. Despite the trend towards dryer conditions over Europe, many climate simulations project increases of heavy precipitation events, while some theoretical studies have raised the possibility of dramatic increases in hourly events (by up to 14% per degree warming). However, conventional climate models are not suited to assess short-term heavy events due to the need to parameterize deep convection. High-resolution climate models with kilometer-scale grid spacing at which parameterization of convection can be switched off, significantly improve the simulation of heavy precipitation and can alter the climate change signal (e.g., Ban et al., 2015). Here we present decade-long high-resolution climate change simulations at horizontal resolution of 2.2 km over Europe on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 grid points. These simulations have become feasible with a new version of the COSMO model that runs entirely on Graphics Processing Units. We compare a present-day climate simulation, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (Leutwyler at al., 2016), with a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation The PGW simulation is driven by the slowly evolving mean seasonal cycle of the climate changes (derived from the CMIP5 model), superimposed on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. With this approach, the resulting changes are due to large scale warming of the atmosphere and due to slow-varying circulation changes. We will present the differences in climate change signal between conventional and high-resolution climate models, and discuss the thermodynamic effects on intensification of extreme precipitation. Ban N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär, 2015: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys. Res. Lett., 42 (4), 1165-1172 Leutwyler, D., D. Lüthi, N. Ban, O. Fuhrer and C

  10. [Implementing ambulatory prevention of thrombosis with low molecular weight heparin in plaster immobilization of the lower extremity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kock, H J; Schmit-Neuerburg, K P; Hanke, J; Terwort, A; Rudofsky, G; Hirche, H

    1994-12-01

    Plaster cast immobilisation following trauma is a major risk factor for the development of deep vein thrombosis. In our controlled, randomized and prospective study in patients with minor injuries the incidence of deep vein thrombosis was 4.3% in conservatively treated outpatients with plaster cast immobilisation of the leg (n = 163 control group without prophylaxis). By application of low molecular weight heparin once daily the number of deep vein thrombosis in the prophylaxis group (n = 176) was reduced to 0% (p = 0.006). No severe side effects of low molecular weight heparin were observed. Subcutaneous injections were self-applicated by 89% of males and 72% of females. We conclude that thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin once daily is effective to reduce the risk of deep vein thrombosis in outpatients with plaster cast immobilisation of the leg.

  11. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  12. Drought, Deluge and Declines: The Impact of Precipitation Extremes on Amphibians in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan C. Walls

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  13. Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Brown, Mary E.

    2013-01-01

    The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  14. Association between Anxiety Levels and Weight Change in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Rieke

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the association between anxiety and weight change in a multiethnic cohort followed for approximately 10 years. Methods. The study population consisted of participants of the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis who met specified inclusion criteria (n = 5,799. Weight was measured at baseline and four subsequent follow-up exams. Anxiety was analyzed as sex-specific anxiety quartiles (QANX. The relationship between anxiety level and weight change was examined using a mixed-effect model with weight as the dependent variable, anxiety and time as the independent variables, and adjusted for covariates. Results. Average annual weight change (range was −0.17 kg (−6.04 to 4.38 kg for QANX 1 (lowest anxiety, −0.16 kg (−10.71 to 4.45 kg for QANX 2, −0.15 kg (−8.69 to 6.39 kg for QANX 3, and −0.20 kg (−7.12 to 3.95 kg for QANX 4 (highest anxiety. No significant association was noted between QANX and weight change. However, the highest QANX was associated with a −2.48 kg (95% CI = −3.65, −1.31 lower baseline weight compared to the lowest QANX after adjustment for all covariates. Conclusions. Among adults, age 45–84, higher levels of anxiety, defined by the STPI trait anxiety scale, are associated with lower average baseline weight but not with weight change.

  15. Association of Self-Reported Weight Change and Quality of Life, and Exercise and Weight Management Behaviors Among Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The SHIELD Study

    OpenAIRE

    Susan Grandy; Fox, Kathleen M; Debbra D. Bazata

    2012-01-01

    Purpose. This study examined the association between self-reported weight change and quality of life, and exercise and weight management behaviors among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. In the US SHIELD study, respondents reported whether they had lost or gained weight compared with 1 year earlier and completed the SHIELD-WQ-9 quality of life questionnaire as well as provided information on their exercise and weight management behaviors in the past 12 months. Results...

  16. Weight training, aerobic physical activities, and long-term waist circumference change in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mekary, Rania A; Grøntved, Anders; Despres, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Findings on weight training and waist circumference (WC) change are controversial. This study examined prospectively whether weight training, moderate to vigorous aerobic activity (MVAA), and replacement of one activity for another were associated with favorable changes in WC and body...... weight (BW). METHODS: Physical activity, WC, and BW were reported in 1996 and 2008 in a cohort of 10,500 healthy U.S. men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Multiple linear regression models (partition/substitution) to assess these associations were used. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential...... confounders, a significant inverse dose-response relationship between weight training and WC change (P-trend training (-0.67 cm, 95% CI -0.93, -0.41) than...

  17. Response of Swimming Paramecia to in situ changes in their apparent weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ilyong; Mickalide, Harry; Valles, James M., Jr.

    2012-02-01

    There is a class of marine micro-organisms that are small enough that low Reynold's number hydrodynamics dictates their swimming mechanics and large enough that the force of gravity exerts a noticeable influence on their motion. Experiments on populations of paramecia suggest that they exert a greater propulsion when swimming against gravity. This negative gravi-kinesis is surprising because it suggests that they sense their tiny apparent weight of about 80 pN. To understand this response in more detail, we are investigating how individual paramecia caudatum change their swimming speed and helical trajectories in response to changes in their apparent weight. We vary the apparent weight with the technique of Magnetic Force Buoyancy Variation employing a high field resistive magnet at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory. We will present analysis of the swimming for apparent weight changes as large as a factor of 8.

  18. Variation in genes related to hepatic lipid metabolism and changes in waist circumference and body weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meidtner, Karina; Fisher, Eva; Angquist, Lars

    2014-01-01

    ) and changes in weight and waist circumference. We also investigated effect modification by sex and dietary intake. Data of 6,287 individuals participating in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition were included in the analyses. Data on weight and waist circumference were followed up...... for 6.9 ± 2.5 years. Association of 69 tagSNPs with baseline BMI and annual changes in weight as well as waist circumference were investigated using linear regression analysis. Interactions with sex, GI and intake of carbohydrates, fat as well as saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty...... acids were examined by including multiplicative SNP-covariate terms into the regression model. Neither baseline BMI nor annual weight or waist circumference changes were significantly associated with variation in the selected genes in the entire study population after correction for multiple testing...

  19. Brain structure alterations associated with weight changes in young females with anorexia nervosa: a case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuglset, Tone Seim; Endestad, Tor; Landrø, Nils Inge; Rø, Øyvind

    2015-01-01

    Structural brain changes associated with starvation and clinical measurements were explored in four females with anorexia nervosa with different clinical course, at baseline and 1-year follow-up, after receiving intensive inpatient treatment at a specialized eating disorder unit. Global volume alterations were associated with weight changes. Regional volume alterations were also associated with weight changes, with the largest changes occurring in the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, pallidum, and putamen. Largest changes in cortical thickness occurred in the frontal and temporal lobes. The results are preliminary; however, they show that fluctuations in weight are associated with brain volume alterations, especially gray matter. We suggest that these parts of the brain are vulnerable to starvation and malnutrition, and could be a part of the pathophysiology of AN.

  20. Diet Quality, Physical Activity, Smoking Status, and Weight Fluctuation Are Associated with Weight Change in Women and Men1–3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimokoti, Ruth W.; Newby, P. K.; Gona, Philimon; Zhu, Lei; Jasuja, Guneet K.; Pencina, Michael J.; McKeon-O'Malley, Catherine; Fox, Caroline S.; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Millen, Barbara E.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of diet quality on weight change, relative to other body weight determinants, is insufficiently understood. Furthermore, research on long-term weight change in U.S. adults is limited. We evaluated prospectively patterns and predictors of weight change in Framingham Offspring/Spouse (FOS) women and men (n = 1515) aged ≥30 y with BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m2 and without cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at baseline over a 16-y period. Diet quality was assessed using the validated Framingham Nutritional Risk Score. In women, older age (P < 0.0001) and physical activity (P < 0.05) were associated with lower weight gain. Diet quality interacted with former smoking status (P-interaction = 0.02); former smokers with lower diet quality gained an additional 5.2 kg compared with those with higher diet quality (multivariable-adjusted P-trend = 0.06). Among men, older age (P < 0.0001) and current smoking (P < 0.01) were associated with lower weight gain, and weight fluctuation (P < 0.01) and former smoking status (P < 0.0001) were associated with greater weight gain. Age was the strongest predictor of weight change in both women (partial R2 = 11%) and men (partial R2 = 8.6%). Normal- and overweight women gained more than obese women (P < 0.05) and younger adults gained more weight than older adults (P < 0.0001). Patterns and predictors of weight change differ by sex. Age in both sexes and physical activity among women as well as weight fluctuation and smoking status in men were stronger predictors of weight change than diet quality among FOS adults. Women who stopped smoking over follow-up and had poor diet quality gained the most weight. Preventive interventions need to be sex-specific and consider lifestyle factors. PMID:20484553

  1. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  2. Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Harrah, Steven; Lawrence, R. Wes; Hu, Yongxiang; Min, Qilong

    2015-01-01

    This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

  3. Association between Weight Change, Health Outcomes, and Mortality in Older Residents in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wei; Kozikowski, Andrzej; Pekmezaris, Renee; Lolis, James; Tommasulo, Barbara; Fishbein, Joanna; Wolf-Klein, Gisele

    2017-07-01

    Despite the numerous health risks associated with being overweight, the effect of weight loss on health and longevity remains controversial, particularly in older adults. We explored the association among weight changes, health outcomes, and mortality in older residents of a skilled nursing facility. A 6-year retrospective chart review of residents of a long-term care facility was conducted, collecting monthly weights in addition to the clinical and demographic data of all residents for at least 1 year. Weight changes of 5% from baseline month 1 through month 12 were classified as stable, loss, or gain. Demographics, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, number of hospitalizations, and mortality were analyzed. The association between weight change (and other demographic and clinical variables) and mortality outcomes, as well as number of hospitalizations, was assessed using the χ(2) test, the Fisher exact test, Poisson regression, or negative binomial regression, as appropriate. A total of 116 residents fit inclusion criteria; the median age was 84 years, with 71.6% being women and 88.7% white. The median length of stay was 877.5 days. Median body weight at baseline was 137.3 lb with a BMI of 23.5. More than one-third (36.2%) of residents had stable weight, 37.9% gained weight, and 25.9% lost weight during their stay. Neither weight change category nor baseline BMI was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.056 and P = 0.518, respectively). Multivariable models showed that receiving supplementation (P = 0.04) and having hypertension (P = 0.04) were significant predictors of mortality after adjusting for the other factors. Losing >5% body weight (compared with maintaining stable weight; P = 0.0097), being a man (P = 0.0104), receiving a supplement (P = 0.0171), and being fed by tube (P = 0.0004) were associated with an increased number of hospitalizations after covariate adjustment. Weight fluctuation and baseline BMI do not appear to be associated with

  4. Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960—2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Zhongwei; XIA Jiangjiang; QIAN Cheng; ZHOU Wen

    2011-01-01

    Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized datnset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960-2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer (LW/LS) periods and local spring/autumn phase (LSP/LAP). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2-6 d (10 yr)-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C-0.4°C (10 yr)-1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2-4 d (10 yr)-1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C-0.2°C (10 yr)-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d (10 yr)-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.

  5. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  6. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

    2016-02-01

    In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

  7. Contemporary changes in precipitation extremes in Poland in comparison to changes in other parts of Baltic Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibig, Joanna; Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

    2015-04-01

    The aim of the paper is detection and attribution of changes in precipitation extremes in Poland on the ground of similar changes in the rest of Baltic Sea Basin. The indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are computed for a number of stations from Poland and surrounding countries. Among them are: Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day), monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), pricipitation intensity index(RRw,) annual number of days with daily precipitation ≥ 10mm and ≥ 20mm (R10mm and R20mm), maximum length of dry spell (CDD), maximum length of wet spell (CWD), annual total from days when daily total is equal at least 95 percentile and 99 percentile calculated in reference period 1961-1990 from daily totals equal at leat 1 mm (R95pTOT and R99pTOT). The daily precipitation records from more than hundred stations from the period 1951-2012 were used. The changes in annual values and their variability are analysed. The regions of similar changes are distinguished both for Poland and for the whole Baltic Sea Region. In the second part of the paper the attribution of large scale mechanisms causing detected changes is planned. The set of possible large scale predictors is prepared. Among them are indices of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the European-North Atlantic Region: the North Atlantic Oscillation index, The Scandinavian index, the East Atlantic index, and the Atlantic Multiannual Oscillation. Additionally the large scale fields of sea level pressure and humidity and temperature from low troposphere are used. The records of indices were taken from NCDC (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc). The large scale fields data were taken from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Among the methodologies used to detect the mechanisms of precipitation extreme changes are: correlation analysis, composites and Canonical Correlation Analysis. The work is supported by grant 2012/05/B/ST10/00945 founded by

  8. Differences between Changes in Extreme and Mean Sea Levels and Planning Allowances for Coastal Protection for the Extremes of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip; Hunter, John; Antony, Charls; Unnikrishnan, Alakkat

    2016-04-01

    Previous studies of changes in extreme sea levels around the world during the past few decades have shown that they largely parallel those in mean sea levels, although with some exceptions at individual stations or in particular regions. In the present study, we have used a much larger data set of high-frequency sea level data from a global set of tide gauges in order to investigate the reasons for the exceptions in greater detail, including the role of the major modes of climate variability. The global data set is called GESLA-2 (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis Version 2) which contains major improvements over the earlier GESLA-1 version (Menendez and Woodworth, JGR 2010) A special study of extreme sea levels is performed using data from India which, for various reasons, are not included in GESLA-2. In addition, the much larger temporal and spatial coverage of GESLA-2 is used to further update the coastal 'allowances' for future sea level rise presented by Hunter et al. (Ocean Engineering 2013), and updated in the IPCC AR5, in which guidelines are given for raising coastal defences for a given scenario of future sea level rise at stations where the climatology of extreme sea levels is known.

  9. Decrease in hepatic very-low-density lipoprotein-triglyceride secretion after weight loss is inversely associated with changes in circulating leptin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magkos, F; Fabbrini, E; McCrea, J; Patterson, B W; Eagon, J C; Klein, S

    2010-07-01

    Although weight loss usually decreases very-low-density lipoprotein-triglyceride (VLDL-TG) secretion rate, the change in VLDL-TG kinetics is not directly related to the change in body weight. Circulating leptin also declines with weight loss and can affect hepatic lipid metabolism. The aim of this study was to determine whether circulating leptin is associated with weight loss-induced changes in VLDL-TG secretion. Ten extremely obese subjects were studied. VLDL-TG secretion rate and the contribution of systemic (derived from lipolysis of subcutaneous adipose tissue TG) and non-systemic fatty acids (derived primarily from lipolysis of intrahepatic and intraperitoneal TG, and de novo lipogenesis) to VLDL-TG production were determined by using stable isotopically labelled tracer methods before and 1 year after gastric bypass surgery. Subjects lost 33 +/- 12% of body weight, and VLDL-TG secretion rate decreased by 46 +/- 23% (p = 0.001), primarily because of a decrease in the secretion of VLDL-TG from non-systemic fatty acids (p = 0.002). Changes in VLDL-TG secretion rates were not significantly related to reductions in body weight, body mass index, plasma palmitate flux, free fatty acid or insulin concentrations. The change in VLDL-TG secretion was inversely correlated with the change in plasma leptin concentration (r = -0.72, p = 0.013), because of a negative association between changes in leptin and VLDL-TG secretion from non-systemic fatty acids (r = -0.95, p Weight loss-induced changes in plasma leptin concentration are inversely associated with changes in VLDL-TG secretion rate. Additional studies are needed to determine whether the correlation between circulating leptin and VLDL-TG secretion represents a cause-and-effect relationship.

  10. Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2016-06-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

  11. Predicting short-term weight loss using four leading health behavior change theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barata José T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was conceived to analyze how exercise and weight management psychosocial variables, derived from several health behavior change theories, predict weight change in a short-term intervention. The theories under analysis were the Social Cognitive Theory, the Transtheoretical Model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Self-Determination Theory. Methods Subjects were 142 overweight and obese women (BMI = 30.2 ± 3.7 kg/m2; age = 38.3 ± 5.8y, participating in a 16-week University-based weight control program. Body weight and a comprehensive psychometric battery were assessed at baseline and at program's end. Results Weight decreased significantly (-3.6 ± 3.4%, p Conclusion The present models were able to predict 20–30% of variance in short-term weight loss and changes in weight management self-efficacy accounted for a large share of the predictive power. As expected from previous studies, exercise variables were only moderately associated with short-term outcomes; they are expected to play a larger explanatory role in longer-term results.

  12. Superstition predicts favorable weight change in an open-placebo trial: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rekhviashvili, Nino; Gupta, Sumati

    2015-09-01

    Given the difficulty of losing weight via adhering to healthy lifestyle choices, this study sought to understand how a placebo may elicit favorable weight change. Specifically, we examined if superstition may be related to increased responsiveness to an open-placebo. In this pilot study of 25 undergraduate participants, it was hypothesized that individuals with higher levels of superstition may be more responsive to a 3-week open-placebo weight change trial. Participants were given once-daily saltine crackers to use as open-placebos for weight change in their preferred direction (gain or loss). The weight of each participant was measured before and after the 3-week open-placebo period. A Pearson's r correlation showed a significant positive relationship between superstition and placebo responsiveness, determined by weight gain or loss in the preferred direction, r (25) = 0.493, p < 0.05. We hope these preliminary results engender future research on open-placebo uses for weight management.

  13. Evolution of extreme temperatures over western Iberia; reporting on recent changes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Santo, Fátima E.

    2010-05-01

    We report on changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal during the period 1941-2006 using daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from 23 of the most reliable Portuguese station records. Here we have used indices corresponding to the number of days above the 90th and below the 10th percentile for both Tmax and Tmin. This allowed us, to compute trends for the entire period of data (1941-2006) as well as for two consecutive 31-year periods: 1945-1975 (relative cooling period) and 1976-2006 (relative warming period), based on results found by Karl et al, 2000. The most striking results are related with the last period (1976-2006) that reveal a significant increase in extreme heat events for both spring and summer seasons, and a decrease in extreme cold events in winter. In the second part of this work we present an analysis of climate change over Portugal simulated by the Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3) with data obtained from Project PRUDENCE. The ability of the model to reproduce the present climate (1961-1990) is tested and evaluated. For this purpose, values of Tmax and Tmin of all 23 climatological weather stations (1961-1990 climate normals) were aggregated into a new time series. Additionally we have computed the seasonal percentiles in 1% steps (ranging from 1% to 99%). For comparison purposes we have aggregated HadRM3 values into a new time series averaging grid points located closest to the 23 climatological weather stations considered, and computed the corresponding seasonal percentiles in 1% steps. This procedure allowed an objective comparison between the two probability distributions (climatological and simulated by the model), using standard q-q plots. Finally we have evaluated changes of probability distributions for future climate projections under the IPCC emission scenarios (B2 and A2), for the period between 2071-2100 when compared to the present climate (1961-1990) simulated by the model. The

  14. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  15. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  16. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  17. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  18. Pericardial Effusion and Cardiac Tamponade Following Percutaneously Inserted Central Line Insertion in an Extremely Low-birth-weight Baby: Case Report and Successful Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Avinash V.; Kumar, Abnish; Shanbhag, Praful; Shah, Forum

    2017-01-01

    Pericardial effusion and cardiac tamponade are rare complications of percutaneously inserted central lines (PICLs), in extremely low-birth-weight babies. This particular complication carries a high degree of mortality, if not suspected and diagnosed. Bedside echocardiography proves not only diagnostic but also can be lifesaving in these conditions. Here, we wish to report such a baby who suddenly deteriorated and showed cardiovascular instability 2 days after the insertion of PICL. Immediate bedside echocardiography helped pick up the effusion which was drained using a subxiphoid percutaneous approach. PMID:28197055

  19. Como minimizar a lesão pulmonar no prematuro extremo: propostas Strategies to minimize lung injury in extremely low birth weight infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleide Suguihara

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Apresentar uma revisão das principais causas da nova displasia broncopulmonar e as estratégias utilizadas para diminuir sua incidência nos prematuros extremos. FONTES DOS DADOS: Para essa revisão, pesquisas foram feitas na MEDLINE (1996 a outubro de 2004, no Cochrane Database, em resumos da Society for Pediatric Research e recentes conferências sobre o tema. SÍNTESE DOS DADOS: A tecnologia e os novos conhecimentos científicos têm aumentado significantemente a sobrevida de prematuros extremos. Esse aumento da sobrevida resultou em aumento da incidência de displasia broncopulmonar. Atualmente, a displasia broncopulmonar é mais freqüentemente observada em recém-nascidos OBJECTIVE: To review the main causes of new bronchopulmonary dysplasia and the strategies utilized to decrease its incidence in extremely low birth weight infants. DATA SOURCES: For this review a MEDLINE search from 1966 to October 2004, the Cochrane Database, abstracts from the Society for Pediatric Research and recent meetings on the topic were used. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: The survival of extremely low birth weight infants has increased significantly due to improvement in both scientific knowledge and technology. This improvement in survival has therefore resulted in an increased incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia. The characteristics of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely low birth weight infants, the so called "new" bronchopulmonary dysplasia are quite different from the classic bronchopulmonary dysplasia described by Northway. This new bronchopulmonary dysplasia has a multifactorial etiology, which includes volutrauma, atelectrauma, oxygen toxicity and lung inflammation. Therapy such as prenatal corticosteroids, exogenous surfactant, nasal continuous positive airway pressure, new mechanical ventilation modalities and gentle ventilation have been used in attempts to decrease lung injury severity. CONCLUSIONS: In order to prevent lung injury in

  20. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A.; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S.; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; MacKinnon, James L.

    2014-01-01

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change. PMID:24535397

  1. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  2. Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.

  3. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Basin of the Yellow River Basin of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1 were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1 the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2 long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.

  4. Friendship clique and peer influences on body image concerns, dietary restraint, extreme weight-loss behaviors, and binge eating in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, S J; Schutz, H K; Wertheim, E H; Muir, S L

    1999-05-01

    This study explored friendship variables in relation to body image, dietary restraint, extreme weight-loss behaviors (EWEBs), and binge eating in adolescent girls. From 523 girls, 79 friendship cliques were identified using social network analysis. Participants completed questionnaires that assessed body image concerns, eating, friendship relations, and psychological family, and media variables. Similarity was greater for within than for between friendship cliques for body image concerns, dietary restraint, and EWLBs, but not for binge eating. Cliques high in body image concerns and dieting manifested these concerns in ways consistent with a high weight/shape-preoccupied subculture. Friendship attitudes contributed significantly to the prediction of individual body image concern and eating behaviors. Use of EWLBs by friends predicted an individual's own level of use.

  5. Introduction of percutaneous-tunneled transfontanellar external ventricular drainage in the management of hydrocephalus in extremely low-birth-weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchelli, Mino; Lefosse, Mariella; Corvaglia, Luigi; Martini, Silvia; Sandri, Fabrizio; Soffritti, Silvia; Ancora, Gina; Mammoliti, Palma; Gargano, Giancarlo; Galassi, Ercole

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE Hydrocephalus treatment in extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants still represents a challenge for the pediatric neurosurgeon, particularly when the patient weighs far less than 1000 g. In such cases, the benefits in terms of neurological outcome following early treatment do not always outweigh the surgical risks, especially considering the great difference in the surgical risk before patient weight increases. To assess the efficacy and reliability of a percutaneous-tunneled, transfontanellar external ventricular drain (PTTEVD) in ELBW infants, the authors started a new protocol for the early surgical treatment of hydrocephalus. METHODS Ten cases of posthemorrhagic hydrocephalus (PHH) in ELBW infants (5 cases introduction of PTTEVD placement in our standard protocol for the management of PHH has proved to be a wise option for small patients.

  6. Lifestyle Interventions Targeting Body Weight Changes during the Menopause Transition: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet Jull

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine the effectiveness of exercise and/or nutrition interventions and to address body weight changes during the menopause transition. Methods. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using electronic databases, grey literature, and hand searching. Two independent researchers screened for studies using experimental designs to evaluate the impact of exercise and/or nutrition interventions on body weight and/or central weight gain performed during the menopausal transition. Studies were quality appraised using Cochrane risk of bias. Included studies were analyzed descriptively. Results. Of 3,564 unique citations screened, 3 studies were eligible (2 randomized controlled trials, and 1 pre/post study. Study quality ranged from low to high risk of bias. One randomized controlled trial with lower risk of bias concluded that participation in an exercise program combined with dietary interventions might mitigate body adiposity increases, which is normally observed during the menopause transition. The other two studies with higher risk of bias suggested that exercise might attenuate weight loss or weight gain and change abdominal adiposity patterns. Conclusions. High quality studies evaluating the effectiveness of interventions targeting body weight changes in women during their menopause transition are needed. Evidence from one higher quality study indicates an effective multifaceted intervention for women to minimize changes in body adiposity.

  7. Behavioral and Psychological Factors Associated with 12-Month Weight Change in a Physical Activity Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Napolitano

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Examining behavioral and psychological factors relating to weight stability over a 1-year period is of public health importance. We conducted a physical activity (PA intervention trial for women (N=247; mean age=47.5±10.7; mean BMI=28.6±5.3 in which participants were assigned to one of three groups (two PA and one contact-control. By Month 12, participants achieved 140.4±14.82 min of PA/week, with no group differences. Weight status change from baseline to Month 12 was categorized: no change (N=154; 62.4%; increase (N=34; 13.8%; decrease (N=59; 23.9%. Discriminant function analyses indentified two statistically significant dimensions associated with weight change. Dimension 1 was positively weighted by mood (0.73 and self-efficacy (0.79; dimension 2 was positively weighted to change in physical activity (0.58 and fat consumption (0.55. Results provide further evidence for the importance of behavior in long-term weight maintenance, particularly physical activity and dietary fat. These findings also provide evidence for the importance of addressing psychosocial variables, in particular depressed mood and self-efficacy.

  8. A Clinically Relevant Method of Analyzing Continuous Change in Robotic Upper Extremity Chronic Stroke Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Crystal L; Du, Yue; Conroy, Susan S; Krebs, H Igo; Wittenberg, George F; Bever, Christopher T; Whitall, Jill

    2016-09-01

    Robots designed for rehabilitation of the upper extremity after stroke facilitate high rates of repetition during practice of movements and record precise kinematic data, providing a method to investigate motor recovery profiles over time. To determine how motor recovery profiles during robotic interventions provide insight into improving clinical gains. A convenience sample (n = 22), from a larger randomized control trial, was taken of chronic stroke participants completing 12 sessions of arm therapy. One group received 60 minutes of robotic therapy (Robot only) and the other group received 45 minutes on the robot plus 15 minutes of translation-to-task practice (Robot + TTT). Movement time was assessed using the robot without powered assistance. Analyses (ANOVA, random coefficient modeling [RCM] with 2-term exponential function) were completed to investigate changes across the intervention, between sessions, and within a session. Significant improvement (P stroke robotic interventions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Dietary fiber and subsequent changes in body weight and waist circumference in European men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Du, H.; A, van der A.D.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Forouchi, N.G.; Wareham, N.; Halkjaer, J.; Tjonneland, A.; Overvad, K.; Jakobsen, M.U.; Boeing, H.; Buijsse, B.; Masala, G.; Palli, D.; Sorensen, T.; Saris, W.H.; Feskens, E.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Dietary fiber may play a role in obesity prevention. Until now, the role that fiber from different sources plays in weight change had rarely been studied. Objective: Our aim was to investigate the association of total dietary fiber, cereal fiber, and fruit and vegetable fiber with change

  10. The impact of positive and negative income changes on the height and weight of young children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buser, T.; Oosterbeek, H.; Plug, E.; Ponce, J.; Rosero, J.

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the impact of changes in unearned income on the height and weight of young children in a developing country. As source of variation we use changes in the eligibility criteria for receipt of an unconditional cash transfer in Ecuador. Two years after families lost the transfer, which they

  11. Dietary fiber and subsequent changes in body weight and waist circumference in European men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Du, H.; A, van der A.D.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Forouchi, N.G.; Wareham, N.; Halkjaer, J.; Tjonneland, A.; Overvad, K.; Jakobsen, M.U.; Boeing, H.; Buijsse, B.; Masala, G.; Palli, D.; Sorensen, T.; Saris, W.H.; Feskens, E.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Dietary fiber may play a role in obesity prevention. Until now, the role that fiber from different sources plays in weight change had rarely been studied. Objective: Our aim was to investigate the association of total dietary fiber, cereal fiber, and fruit and vegetable fiber with change

  12. Measurement of brain oxygenation changes using dynamic T1-weighted imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haddock, Bryan; Larsson, Henrik B W; Hansen, Adam E

    2013-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has proven useful in evaluating oxygenation in several types of tissue and blood. This study evaluates brain tissue oxygenation changes between normoxia and hyperoxia in healthy subjects using dynamic T1 and T2*-weighted imaging sequences. The change in FiO2 induced...... in the brain with a potential to provide quantitative information on tissue oxygenation....

  13. Responses in live weight change to net energy intake in dairy cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Charlotte; Østergaard, Søren; Bertilsson, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this analysis was to estimate the effect of increased energy intake on daily live weight changes during the first 100 days of lactation of primiparous and multiparous cows. A data set with 78 observations (treatment means) was compiled from 6 production trials from Denmark, Norway...... and Sweden representing the breeds Danish Holstein, Norwegian Red and Swedish Red. We had access to individual data for feed intake and live weight changes (every second week) during the first 100 days after calving. The data was grouped into sub datasets according to parity; either primiparous...... change were made by linear mixed effects model with trial as random factor. For both primiparous and multiparous cows there was an increasing curvilinear response at a decreasing rate to increased net energy intake and the daily live weight change at day 30 was negative and at day 90 it was positive...

  14. The effect of smoking habit changes on body weight: Evidence from the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates the causal relationship between smoking and body weight through two waves (2004-2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. We model the effect of changes in smoking habits, such as quitting or reducing, and account for the heterogeneous responses of individuals located at different points of the body mass distribution by quantile regression. We test our results by means of a large set of control groups and investigate their robustness by using the changes-in-changes estimator and accounting for different thresholds to define smoking reductions. Our results reveal the positive effect of quitting smoking on weight changes, which is also found to increase in the highest quantiles, whereas the decision to reduce smoking does not affect body weight.

  15. Kinematic Changes of Gait in Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis by Different Weight bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareth Lorena Alfonso-Mora

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe the differences in kinematic gait variables in women over sixty years of age with knee osteoarthritis by different weight bearings. Material and Methods: Phanel longitudinal research design with convenience sampling probabilistic n = 16 women, aged > 60 years, obesity and knee osteoarthritis, control weight bearing was performed by a locomotive rehabilitation platform that measured gait three times with weights of 100%, 90% and 80%. Results: The movement ranges in certain gait phases were different for bearings of used weight p < 0.05; for angular speed and acceleration no statistically significant differences were found. Conclusions: The different weight bearings for this research represented a variable that significantly change the kinematic gait variables.

  16. Multidecadal changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events in Uruguay and the general atmospheric circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renom, Madeleine; Barreiro, Marcelo [Universidad de la Republica, Unidad de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Montevideo (Uruguay); Rusticucci, Matilde [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2011-12-15

    We analyze changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events and the large scale atmospheric circulation before and after the 1976 climate shift. To do so we first constructed a set of two temperature indices that describe the occurrence of warm nights (TN90) and cold nights (TN10) based on a long daily observed minimum temperature database that spans the period 1946-2005, and then divided the period into two subperiods of 30 years each (1946-1975 and 1976-2005). We focus on summer (TN10) and winter (TN90) seasons. During austral summer before 1976 the interannual variability of cold nights was characterized by a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with a cyclonic anomaly centered off Uruguay that favoured the entrance of cold air from the south. After 1976 cold nights are associated not with the SAM, but with an isolated vortex at upper levels over South Eastern South America. During austral winter before 1976, the El Nino phenomenon dominated the interannual variability of warm nights through an increase in the northerly warm flow into Uruguay. However, after 1976 the El Nino connection weakened and the variability of warm nights is dominated by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly located in the South Atlantic and a low pressure center over South America. This configuration also strengthens the northward flow of warm air into Uruguay. Our results suggest that changes in El Nino evolution after 1976 may have played a role in altering the relationship between temperature extreme events in Uruguay and the atmospheric circulation. (orig.)

  17. Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo

    2016-02-01

    Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

  18. A Different Weight Loss Experience: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Behavioral, Physical, and Psychosocial Changes Associated with Yoga That Promote Weight Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ross

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Yoga interventions improve obesity-related outcomes including body mass index (BMI, body weight, body fat, and waist circumference, yet it is unclear whether these improvements are due to increased physical activity, increased lean muscle mass, and/or changes in eating behaviors. The purpose of this study is to expand our understanding of the experience of losing weight through yoga. Methods. Semistructured interviews were qualitatively analyzed using a descriptive phenomenological approach. Results. Two distinct groups who had lost weight through yoga responded: those who were overweight and had repeatedly struggled in their attempts to lose weight (55%, n=11 and those who were of normal weight and had lost weight unintentionally (45%, n=9. Five themes emerged that differed slightly by group: shift toward healthy eating, impact of the yoga community/yoga culture, physical changes, psychological changes, and the belief that the yoga weight loss experience was different than past weight loss experiences. Conclusions. These findings imply that yoga could offer diverse behavioral, physical, and psychosocial effects that may make it a useful tool for weight loss. Role modeling and social support provided by the yoga community may contribute to weight loss, particularly for individuals struggling to lose weight.

  19. Rapid changes of body weight after a headstand: a metrological analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Acuña-Espinoza

    Full Text Available Despite recent rules from amateur wrestling sport-governing bodies intended to discourage extreme weight loss measures, wrestling culture still includes varied methods to make weight, including holding a headstand position immediately before stepping on the scale. The procedure, according to the notion, will reduce reported mass anywhere between 250 and 500 g (weight between 2.45 and 4.89 N. The aim of this study was to compare any possible differences between the headstand procedure (HS and a normal (CON weight measure, using a metrological approach defined by the European Association of National Metrology Institutes. Seventeen adult men were weighed on a force plate before and after doing a headstand or standing normally for 30s. The order of treatment application was assigned randomly. Post-test weight was significantly larger than pre-test (mean ± s.d. (640.7 ± 62.8 N and 640.3 ± 62.7 N, respectively, p < 0.0001 under both treatments. No treatment vs. time of test interaction was found. No significant difference was found between CON and HS weight (640.6 ± 62.8 N and 640.9 ± 62.9 N, respectively, p=0.3815. The metrological tests suggest that the statistical differences found are related to the force plate measuring errors in every pre-established time interval. The 45 g (0.44 N difference found between pretest and post-test lies within the uncertainty range identified for the equipment (± 110 g or 1.08 N. In conclusion, a 30-second headstand has no significant effect on registered body weight. The small variations obtained were due to equipment-associated measuring errors. This experiment offers systematic empirical evidence to aid in the elimination of this unjustified practice among the wrestling community.

  20. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  1. Testing the integrated theory of health behaviour change for postpartum weight management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Polly; Weiss, Marianne; Traxel, Nicole; Brondino, Michael

    2011-09-01

    This is a report of a correlational study to test the Integrated Theory of Health Behaviour Change within the context of postpartum weight self-management including the impact of race/ethnicity and weight classification. Women experiencing childbirth face increasing challenges to manage their weight postpartum. Little is known about women's weight self-management during the complex physiological and psychosocial transition of the postpartum period. Data were collected during the birth hospitalization and 4 months postbirth during 2005 and 2006. A quota sample of 250 postpartum women using two strata, race/ethnicity and prepregnant weight classification, were enrolled; 179 women completed the follow-up survey. A survey questionnaire measured concepts from the Integrated Theory of Health Behaviour Change concepts, including knowledge and beliefs (self-efficacy, outcome expectancy and goal congruence), self-regulation skills and abilities, and social facilitation (social support and social influence) and the proximal outcome of weight retention. Factor analysis identified 5 factors consistent with the theoretical concepts that accounted for 47·1% of total survey variance. Model testing using path analysis explored the relationship among factors. The final model explained 25·7% of the variance in self regulation at 4 months, but did not explain weight retention. The contribution of select concepts to total variance was different for Caucasian and African American women, but not by weight classification. Findings support use of theoretical concepts and relationships to understand postpartum weight self-management. The different relationships among concepts in Caucasian and African American women should be considered in planning targeted postpartum weight self-management interventions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.